WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate policy impacts

  1. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  2. Global trade and climate policy scenarios. Impact on Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honkatukia, J.; Kaitila, V.; Kotilainen, M.; Niemi, J.

    2012-09-15

    In this study we use the dynamic version of the GTAP model to analyse the effects of global trade policy changes and their interaction with different global climate policy regimes from Finland's point of view, and in particular, implications for Finnish export sectors. Scenarios explore further trade liberalisation as well as effects of higher-than-current tariffs on world markets. As a complementary dimension we analyse the impact of a global climate agreement that will lead to an additional improvement in energy efficiency and impose limitations to GHG emissions. We find a general trend towards a greater weight of services sector in Finland's total exports volume, whilst the share of traditionally important heavy industry and electronics industries declines. These trends are amplified by further trade liberalisation and slowed down by new barriers for trade. The global coverage of climate policy is particularly significant for energy-intensive industries. (orig.)

  3. Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A number of studies over the past few decades have attempted to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. For reasons related to, inter alia, our incomplete understanding of the workings of many natural and social systems, the tremendous spatial and temporal variability in these systems, and the long time frames over which the issue of climate change will play out, there are large degrees of uncertainty in these estimates. Some of the most rancorous debates, however, have focused on those studies that have attempted to place economic values on these impacts. This should not be surprising as the outcomes of these studies have played an important role in the debates over climate policy. Rightly or wrongly, the estimates presented in these studies are often held up against similar estimates of the costs of mitigating against climate change. The process of economic valuation of environmental and social issues is still relatively young, much less its application to the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. Issues such as climate change push existing techniques to their limits, and possibly beyond. Among the topics that have raised the most concern are the choice of the proper baseline against which to make comparisons, the treatment of uncertainty in human and natural systems, incomplete accounting, the actual valuation of specific impacts, and the aggregation of impacts over time and across widely differing societies. Some of the more recent studies have tried to address these issues, albeit not always satisfactorily. One aspect that makes the economic valuation of environmental and social issues difficult is that it requires addressing impacts that are not typically associated with economic markets, so called nonmarket impacts. In addition to not being traded in markets, many of these impacts affect goods and services that have the characteristic of being public goods, i.e. it is not possible to restrict their use to a

  4. Cumulative Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, A.; Milnes, R.; Miller, K.; Williams, E. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom); De Bruyn, S.; Brinke, L. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    Carbon leakage occurs when climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a country that is not bound by these policies. Given that climate change is a global issue, carbon leakage impacts upon the effectiveness of climate change policies. This independent study examines the cumulative impact of climate change policies on carbon leakage. The report brings together findings and analysis from a wide range of primary literature in this area and where possible, conclusions relevant to the UK are drawn.

  5. Assessing climate impacts of planning policies-An estimation for the urban region of Leipzig (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Local climate regulation by urban green areas is an important urban ecosystem service, as it reduces the extent of the urban heat island and therefore enhances quality of life. Local and regional planning policies can control land use changes in an urban region, which in turn alter local climate regulation. Thus, this paper describes a method for estimating the impacts of current land uses as well as local and regional planning policies on local climate regulation, using evapotranspiration and land surface emissivity as indicators. This method can be used by practitioners to evaluate their policies. An application of this method is demonstrated for the case study Leipzig (Germany). Results for six selected planning policies in Leipzig indicate their distinct impacts on climate regulation and especially the role of their spatial extent. The proposed method was found to easily produce a qualitative assessment of impacts of planning policies on climate regulation.

  6. BRAZIL’S CLIMATE ADAPTATION POLICIES: IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Valdes, Constanza; Arriola, Christine; Somwaru, Agapi; Gasques, Jose Garcia

    2010-01-01

    Current climate adaptation polices in Brazil are influencing not only the choice of crops but also many agricultural practices at the farm level including changes in planting and sowing periods, use of irrigation-saving technologies, and increased nitrogen fertilization, among others. The shape and content of these adaptation policies and measures for Brazil are not limited to production agriculture, but include also conservation reserve and risk-reducing farm programs. In addition, the decad...

  7. The impact of the endogenous technical change on climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This research aims at revisiting the 'autonomous vs. induced' debate on the costs of climate policies, first by broadening the framework of the technical change induction to other economical sectors, and then by attempting to go beyond the concept of technical change induction and think in terms of a structural change induction. After a review of modes of representation of the technical progress in economical prospective models for the assessment of climate policies, the author presents the IMACLIM-R model, a recursive general equilibrium model which simulates the evolution of the world economy within 12 regions and 12 sectors between 2001 and 2100. The results obtained with this model are then presented and discussed, in the case of a reference scenario which displays a significant change towards a carbon-intensive path. These results stress the risks related to a 'laissez faire' attitude. The author explores the consequences in terms of climate policies with a more or less extended taking into account of phenomena of induction of technical and structural changes

  8. Climate change impacts on urban wildfire and flooding policy in Idaho: a comparative policy network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous frameworks and models exist for understanding the dynamics of the public policy process. A policy network approach considers how and why stakeholders and interests pay attention to and engage in policy problems, such as flood control or developing resilient and fire resistant landscapes. Variables considered in this approach include what the relationships are between these stakeholders, how they influence the process and outcomes, communication patterns within and between policy networks, and how networks change as a result of new information, science, or public interest and involvement with the problem. This approach is useful in understanding the creation of natural hazards policy as new information or situations, such as projected climate change impacts, influence and disrupt the policy process and networks. Two significant natural hazard policy networks exist in the semi-arid Treasure Valley region of Southwest Idaho, which includes the capitol city of Boise and the surrounding metropolitan area. Boise is situated along the Boise River and adjacent to steep foothills; this physiographic setting makes Boise vulnerable to both wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and flooding. Both of these natural hazards have devastated the community in the past and floods and fires are projected to occur with more frequency in the future as a result of projected climate change impacts in the region. While both hazards are fairly well defined problems, there are stark differences lending themselves to comparisons across their respective networks. The WUI wildfire network is large and well developed, includes stakeholders from all levels of government, the private sector and property owner organizations, has well defined objectives, and conducts promotional and educational activities as part of its interaction with the public in order to increase awareness and garner support for its policies. The flood control policy network, however, is less defined

  9. Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

    2013-12-01

    In the coming decades, growing demand for energy and water and the need to address climate change will create huge challenges for energy policy and natural resource management. Synergistic strategies must be developed to conserve and use both resources more efficiently. California (CA) is a prime example of a region where policymakers have began to incorporate water planning in energy infrastructure development. But more must be done as CA transforms its energy system to meet its climate target. We analyze lifecycle water use of current and future transport fuel consumption to evaluate impacts & formulate mitigation strategies for the state at the watershed scale. Four 'bounding cases' for CA's future transportation demand to year 2030 are projected for analysis: two scenarios that only meet the 2020 climate target (business-as-usual, BAU) with high / low water use intensity, and two that meet long-term climate target with high / low water use intensity (Fig 1). Our study focuses on the following energy supply chains: (a) liquid fuels from conventional/unconventional oil & gas, (b) thermoelectric and renewable generation technologies, and (c) biofuels (Fig 2-3). We develop plausible siting scenarios that bound the range of possible water sources, impacts, and dispositions to provide insights into how to best allocate water and limit water impacts of energy development. We further identify constraints & opportunities to improve water use efficiency and highlight salient policy relevant lessons. For biofuels we extend our scope to the entire US as most of the biofuels consumed in California are and will be produced from outside of the state. We analyze policy impacts that capture both direct & indirect land use effects across scenarios, thus addressing the major shortcomings of existing studies, which ignore spatial heterogeneity as well as economic effects of crop displacement and the effects of crop intensification and extensification. We use the agronomic

  10. Impact of Climate Change: Views and Perceptions of Policy Makers on Smallholder Agriculture in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Tetteh

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The threat of global climate change has caused intense debate among policy makers as agricultural productivity and food security risks considerable decline due to changes in rainfallpatterns and temperature. Although the impact of climate change on crop yields vary greatly from region to region, smallholder farmers in developing countries who depend solely on rain-fed agriculture are among the most disadvantaged and vulnerable groups. While the successes in agricultural production in Africa and Ghana over the last decades are heralded, the inequitable distribution of benefits and unsustainable impacts on natural resources are becoming more evident. Many authors have blamed global warming and climate change on the emission of greenhouse gasses however, farming methods and other human activities are also to blame for the emerging change in the climate. Therefore, bringing farming practices and ecosystem services into decision-making in order to make full use of the potential gains from working with the natural environment and the underpinning biophysical processes is imperative. This paper assesses the views and perceptions of Ghanaian policy makers on the impact of climate change on smallholder agricultural productivity in order to sustain agricultural productivity in Ghana. The study used data from a case study conducted by the Environment Policy Action Node Project with sponsorship from the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA in Ghana between 2012 and 2013. An interview guide was used to collect qualitatively data from 35 key policy making institutions/organization in Ghana. One important finding of the paper is that even though Ghana has a climate change policy, most of the policy makers were not aware of the policy document and its contents. The paper however argues that to improve smallholder agricultural productivity in Ghana, a national debate on climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are needed to ensure coherence

  11. The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO2 and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2-14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO2 under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO2), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO2 increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO2. - Highlights: → We analyze the impact of climate change policy on water use for electricity generation. → Water use decreases with an increase in CO2 allowance price. → Retrofitting of coal plants with CCS could increase water use considerably.

  12. Policy documents as sources for measuring societal impact: How is climate change research perceived in policy documents?

    CERN Document Server

    Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

    2015-01-01

    In the current UK Research Excellence Framework (REF) and the Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) societal impact measurements are inherent parts of the national evaluation systems. In this study, we deal with a relatively new form of societal impact measurements. Recently, Altmetric - a start-up providing publication level metrics - started to make data for publications available which have been mentioned in policy documents. We regard this data source as an interesting possibility to specifically measure the (societal) impact of research. Using a comprehensive dataset with publications on climate change as an example, we study the usefulness of the new data source for impact measurement. Only 1.2 percent (2341) out of 191276 publications on climate change in the dataset have at least one policy mention. We further reveal that papers published in Nature and Science as well as from the areas "Earth and related environmental sciences" and "Social and economic geography" are especially relevant in the po...

  13. National climate policies across Europe and their impacts on cities strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidrich, O; Reckien, D; Olazabal, M; Foley, A; Salvia, M; de Gregorio Hurtado, S; Orru, H; Flacke, J; Geneletti, D; Pietrapertosa, F; Hamann, J J-P; Tiwary, A; Feliu, E; Dawson, R J

    2016-03-01

    Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities.

  14. Climate change policy positive or negative economic impact? Why?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kupers, R.T.L.; Mangalagiu, D.

    2010-01-01

    ECF initiates and performs high-class research on climate change in close interaction with stakeholders. We provide a pluralistic communication platform in the emerging global field of researchers, governments, local authorities, businesses, and social movements. This field lies beyond the tradition

  15. Impact of Climate Policy on the Basque Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzalez, M.J.; Dellink, R.B.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the economic effects of CO2 emission reductions in the Basque Country (Spain) using an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model with specific attention to environment-energy-economy interactions. Environmental policy is implemented through a system of tradable pollution permi

  16. Ancillary Benefits of Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Markandya, Anil; Rübbelke, Dirk T. G.

    2003-01-01

    The benefits of climate policy normally consist exclusively of the reduced impacts of climate change, i.e., the policy’s primary aim. Our analysis of benefits of climate policy suggests, however, that researchers and policymakers should also take account of ancillary benefits, e.g., in the shape of improved air quality induced by climate protection measures. A consideration of both, primary and ancillary benefits, has a positive influence on global climate protection efforts, e.g., because th...

  17. Natural climate variability and future climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, Katharine L.; Caldeira, Ken

    2014-05-01

    Large ensemble climate modelling experiments demonstrate the large role natural variability plays in local climate on a multi-decadal timescale. Variability in local weather and climate influences individual beliefs about climate change. To the extent that support for climate mitigation policies is determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability will strongly influence the timescale for implementation of such policies. Under a number of illustrative threshold criteria for both national and international climate action, we show that variability-driven uncertainty about local change, even in the face of a well-constrained estimate of global change, can potentially delay the time to policy implementation by decades. Because several decades of greenhouse gas emissions can have a large impact on long-term climate outcomes, there is substantial risk associated with climate policies driven by consensus among individuals who are strongly influenced by local weather conditions.

  18. Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Y. H; D. T. Shindell; Faluvegi, G.; R. W. Pinder

    2015-01-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that reduces 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using NASA GISS ModelE2, we look at the impacts in year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration...

  19. Climate Change and Health in British Columbia: Projected Impacts and a Proposed Agenda for Adaptation Research and Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana M. Allen

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This is a case study describing how climate change may affect the health of British Columbians and to suggest a way forward to promote health and policy research, and adaptation to these changes. After reviewing the limited evidence of the impacts of climate change on human health we have developed five principles to guide the development of research and policy to better predict future impacts of climate change on health and to enhance adaptation to these change in BC. We suggest that, with some modification, these principles will be useful to policy makers in other jurisdictions.

  20. The impact of climate change and climate policy on the Canadian economy

    OpenAIRE

    Davies, Jim; MacGee, Jim; Wibe, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    We examine the relative benefits of policy aimed at mitigating GHG emissions in Canada and globally. We find that while a carbon tax that holds the stock of global emissions below the 550 ppm level would yield positive net benefits for the world economy, the impact of such a tax on the Canadian economy would be negative. This result is largely driven by our finding that the damages from small increases in temperature are much smaller in Canada than in the rest of the world.

  1. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  2. Migration Related to Climate Change: Impact, Challenges and Proposed Policy Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, A.

    2015-12-01

    Migration of human population possesses a great threat to human development and nation building. A significant cause for migration is due to change in climatic conditions and vulnerabilities associated with it. Our case study focuses on the consequent reason and impact of such migration in the coastal areas of West Bengal, India. The changes in rainfall pattern and the variation of temperature have been considered as parameters which have resulted in migration. It is worthy to note that the agricultural pattern has subsequently changed over the last two decades due to change in rainfall and temperature. India being an agriculture oriented economy, the changes in the meteorological variables have not only altered the rate of agricultural pattern but also the rate of migration. A proposed framework depicting relationship between changes in meteorological variables and the migration pattern, and an estimate of how the migration pattern is expected to change over the next century by utilizing the downscaled values of future rainfall and temperature has been analyzed. Moreover, various public policy frameworks has also been proposed through the study for addressing the challenges of migration related to climate change. The proposed public policy framework has been streamlined along the lines of various international treaties and conventions in order to integrate the policy initiatives through universalization of law and policy research.

  3. Climate policies and learning by doing: Impacts and timing of technology subsidies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium model with learning by doing. The optimal subsidy rate of a carbon-free technology is high when the technology is first adopted, but falls significantly over the next decades. However, the efficiency costs of uniform instead of optimal subsidies, may be low if there are adjustment costs for a new technology. Finally, supporting existing energy technologies only, may lead to technology lock-in, and the impacts of lock-in increase with the learning potential of new technologies as well as the possibilities for early entry. (author)

  4. Climate policies and learning by doing: Impacts and timing of technology subsidies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kverndokk, Snorre [Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo (Norway); Rosendahl, Knut Einar [Research Department, Statistics Norway, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., 0033 Oslo (Norway)

    2007-01-15

    We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium model with learning by doing. The optimal subsidy rate of a carbon-free technology is high when the technology is first adopted, but falls significantly over the next decades. However, the efficiency costs of uniform instead of optimal subsidies, may be low if there are adjustment costs for a new technology. Finally, supporting existing energy technologies only, may lead to technology lock-in, and the impacts of lock-in increase with the learning potential of new technologies as well as the possibilities for early entry. (author)

  5. Economic impact of integrated policies to respond to threats of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes the Argonne Multisector Industry Growth Assessment Model (AMIGA), which is a tool for policy impact analysis in the context of the economy as a whole and its individual sectors. AMIGA is currently being used by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to help understand and evaluate these DOE programs, including more efficient motor vehicle programs. The steps being taken under the US Climate Change Action Plan are being assessed using AMIGA. However, because AMIGA represents prices of goods and services and the wages of workers, AMIGA has the capability to represent incentive approaches to greenhouse gas emissions reductions such as a carbon tax. The ''best'' policy option in a ''second-best'' world may be a mix, or bundle of incentives, voluntary programs, and command-and-control regulations. Detailed reports on model documentation and simulation studies will be available from the author

  6. Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yunha; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Pinder, Rob W.

    2016-04-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is reduced by ˜ 2 µg m-3 on average over the USA, and surface ozone by ˜ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (˜ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is ˜ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe, and ˜ 0.8 W m-2 over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing

  7. Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. H.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.

    2016-01-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately µg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US

  8. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change:Findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project

    OpenAIRE

    Clive E. Sabel; Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Bi, Jun; Depledge, Mike; Van Den Elshout, Sef; Friedrich, Rainer; Huang, Ganlin; Hurley, Fintan; Jantunen, Matti; Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Keuken, Menno; Kingham, Simon; Kontoroupis, Periklis; Kuenzli, Nino

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments.Methods: Five European and two Chinese city authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium. The methodology involved modelling the impact of adopted urban climate-change mitigation transport, buildings and energy polic...

  9. The Climate Policy Dilemma

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck

    2013-01-01

    Climate policy poses a dilemma for environmental economists. The economic argument for stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement is far from clear. There is disagreement among both climate scientists and economists concerning the likelihood of alternative climate outcomes, the nature and extent of the uncertainty of those outcomes, and the framework that should be used to evaluate potential benefits from GHG abatement, including key policy parameters. I argue that the case for stringent abatem...

  10. Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marten, Alex; Kopp, Robert E.; Shouse, Kate C.; Griffiths, Charles; Hodson, Elke L.; Kopits, Elizabeth; Mignone, Bryan K.; Moore, Chris; Newbold, Steve; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wolverton, Ann

    2013-04-01

    to updating the estimates regularly as modeling capabilities and scientific and economic knowledge improves. To help foster further improvements in estimating the SCC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy hosted a pair of workshops on “Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis.” The first focused on conceptual and methodological issues related to integrated assessment modeling and the second brought together natural and social scientists to explore methods for improving damage assessment for multiple sectors. These two workshops provide the basis for the 13 papers in this special issue.

  11. The Distributional Impact of Developed Countries’ Climate Change Policies on Senegal: A Macro-Micro CGE Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Estache

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a distributional impact analysis of climate change policies envisaged or implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Senegal. We consider policies implemented in developed countries and their impact on a developing country. Moreover, we simulate the diminishing productivity of agricultural land as a potential result of climate change (CC for Senegal. This country is exposed to the direct consequences of CC and is vulnerable to changes in world prices of energy, given its lack of substitution capacity. Past researches have shown that countries with this profile will bear the greatest burden of CC and its mitigation policies. Our results reveal slight increases in poverty when the world price of fossil fuels increases and the negative impact is further amplified with decreases in land productivity. However, subsidizing electricity consumption to protect consumers from world price increases in fossil fuels is shown to provide a weak cushion to poverty increase.

  12. Quantifying and Monetizing Potential Climate Change Policy Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Wildfires in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper quantifies and monetizes climate change impacts on carbon stored in terrestrial vegetation and wildfire incidence in the contiguous United States to assess the benefits of alternative mitigation policies. The MC-1 dynamic global vegetation model was used to develop int...

  13. Climate - Options for broadening climate policy

    OpenAIRE

    Aerts JCJH; Asselt H van; Bakker SJA; Bayangos V; Beers C van; Berk MM; Biermann F; Bouwer LM; van Bree L; Dorland K; Elzen ME den; Gupta J; Heemst J van; Jansen JC; Nabuurs GJ

    2005-01-01

    In this study ways are explored to increase the policy coherence between the climate regime and a selected number of climate relevant policy areas, by adding a non-climate policy track to national and international climate strategies. The report assesses first the potential, synergies and trade-offs of linking the climate regime to relevant other policy areas, including poverty reduction, land-use, security of energy supply, trade and finance and air quality and health. Next the possibilities...

  14. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schleussner, Carl Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-01-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average

  15. Policies to contend with climate change : positive impacts on employment in Europe and France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impact of climate change on the evolution of our society and economy was discussed. Studies have shown that the fight against climate change could result in the creation of many jobs. This article proposed several strategies to undertake, with particular reference to investment in energy conservation and the use of renewable energy. It promoted the frugal use of energy resources, notably fossil fuels, which are becoming scare. It also argued that investment in energy conservation and renewable energy sources is no long a luxury, but a necessity. It provided examples of how these investments are guided by profitability. For example, an investment to insulate a house in 1998 will be completely recuperated by 2005 due to savings in energy costs, after which time energy savings will continue. In addition to environmental protection and energy conservation, another benefit associated with the fight against climate change is job creation in areas such as insulating houses or the production of biofuels. By nature, renewable energy is local and decentralized. As such, it offers the opportunity for local jobs at or near the site of consumption. Examples of direct employment were depicted. In the transportation sector, half the amount of energy is needed to move in mass transit compared to individual cars, while creating twice the employment. Although the initial investment in mass transit is costly, the advantages are far from limited to energy conservation and employment. They include security, and improved health of people in cities which results in lower social costs. In France, the insulation of old buildings constructed before the introduction of new laws on thermal standards also generated employment. It is expected that 20,000 to 30,000 perennial jobs in agriculture and industrial manufacturing will been created in France by 2010 for the biofuel industry alone. Energy conservation will result in a drop in traditional energy consumption, this being the first goal

  16. Local climate policy in practice. Use of the playing field, impact of trends and the integration of climate care in municipal policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The result of the first research phase of the project was an outline of the playing field of local climate policy. The use of options and instruments from the playing field is examined on the basis of literature and interviews with local governments. In the process, barriers for the implementation of options are illustrated. The evaluation of the playing field in practise shows that local governments often only use part of their playing field. Even local governments that excel and are familiar throughout the country in relation to one particular task area ignore other task areas. The reasons why options and instruments are not fully utilised vary per task area: not enough internal support; lack of clear policy framework; climate policy must join in with other targets or local governments depend on cooperation of other actors. Nevertheless, generally speaking the success and failure factors in utilising options in the local government playing field are often related to the sphere of cooperation with other parties and the input of knowledge in the organisation of the local government. Moreover, the importance of climate is not made explicit enough in many task areas. The options in climate policy for local governments are influenced by social developments. In the study three trends are examined with respect to their influence: developments in the area of liberalisation of the energy market, the position of local governments in national environmental policy and changes in local democracy. These trends result in a complication of the role of local governments. Local governments must show more initiative than in the past. Liberalisation leads to a more business-oriented relationship with energy companies and probably lower energy prices. Larger freedom of policy results in more space for establishing local priorities, but does not necessarily result in more attention for local climate policy. Participation can result in a larger support for climate policy but also

  17. The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping. - Highlights: • Policy scenarios for decarbonising of the global electricity sector by 90%. • Strong synergies exist between different energy policy instruments. • Carbon pricing not a sufficient policy instrument for large emissions reductions. • Improved agent behaviour assumptions for energy modelling beyond cost-optimisation

  18. Water resource impacts of climate and land cover change in New Zealand: Balancing scientific supply and policy demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, D. B.; Rouse, H. L.; Duncan, M. J.

    2012-12-01

    Anthropogenic changes in climate and land cover have a range of effects on water resources. The policies in place to manage these potential changes depend on the biophysical drivers, the societal and environmental vulnerabilities, and the environmental (or resource management) governance institutions in place. As the science advances, so too will the policy, and as policy needs are identified, so too will the science advance. To illustrate the co-evolution of water resource science and policy, their dependence on environmental and social contexts, and their potential for further evolution, examples are drawn from New Zealand. Climate change is projected to have a range of impacts on the water resource system, including both increases and decreases in water supply, more severe droughts and floods, and degraded aquatic ecosystems. This is expected to have significant implications for the country's water-based agricultural economy and other societal values. Consequently, recent central government policy has directed all regional resource managers to take into consideration the foreseeable impacts of climate change, yet in many places projections of potential water resource change are lacking. In a similar vein, land cover change, such as the clearance of forest for dairy farming or the expansion of forests for carbon farming, also alters the quantity, quality and timing of water supply. In contrast to climate change, however, there has been no specific direction given from central government regarding land cover management, but rather a requirement to integrate land use change in broader limit setting. Going beyond this, two of the 16 regional authorities have already put in place policies that restrict forest expansion based on the potential reductions in catchment water supply. The differential responses to potential climate and land cover change depend on a range of scientific and societal factors, including the vulnerability of the water resource system and

  19. Impact of US Biofuel Policy in the Presence of Uncertain Climate Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nuñez, H.M.; Trujillo Barrera, A.A.

    2014-01-01

    We analyze the impact of total and partial waivers of the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) under uncertain changes in climate conditions that affects crop yield distributions. Results show that reducing RFS would make world agricultural consumers better off, and increase the US corn share in the wor

  20. Energy Sprawl or Energy Efficiency: Climate Policy Impacts on Natural Habitat for the United States of America

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Robert I.; Fargione, Joseph; Kiesecker, Joe; Miller, William M.; Powell, Jimmie

    2009-01-01

    Concern over climate change has led the U.S. to consider a cap-and-trade system to regulate emissions. Here we illustrate the land-use impact to U.S. habitat types of new energy development resulting from different U.S. energy policies. We estimated the total new land area needed by 2030 to produce energy, under current law and under various cap-and-trade policies, and then partitioned the area impacted among habitat types with geospatial data on the feasibility of production. The land-use intensity of different energy production techniques varies over three orders of magnitude, from 1.9–2.8 km2/TW hr/yr for nuclear power to 788–1000 km2/TW hr/yr for biodiesel from soy. In all scenarios, temperate deciduous forests and temperate grasslands will be most impacted by future energy development, although the magnitude of impact by wind, biomass, and coal to different habitat types is policy-specific. Regardless of the existence or structure of a cap-and-trade bill, at least 206,000 km2 will be impacted without substantial increases in energy efficiency, which saves at least 7.6 km2 per TW hr of electricity conserved annually and 27.5 km2 per TW hr of liquid fuels conserved annually. Climate policy that reduces carbon dioxide emissions may increase the areal impact of energy, although the magnitude of this potential side effect may be substantially mitigated by increases in energy efficiency. The possibility of widespread energy sprawl increases the need for energy conservation, appropriate siting, sustainable production practices, and compensatory mitigation offsets. PMID:19707570

  1. Climate change mitigation policies in Lithuania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konstantinaviciute, I.

    2003-09-01

    The Lithuanian climate change policy has to be considered in the framework of the Convention on Climate Change. The National Strategy for Implementation of Convention was the first step in evaluating the country's impact on climate change, adapting to the Convention and foreseeing the means and measures for climate change mitigation. The paper introduces main issues related to climate change mitigation policy in Lithuania. It presents an analysis of greenhouse gas emission trends in Lithuania and surveys institutional organizations as well as stakeholder associations related to climate change issues and their role in climate policy making. The main Lithuanian international environmental obligation and Lithuanian governmental climate change mitigation policy in the energy sector are presented as well. (Author)

  2. EU policies on car emissions and fuel quality. Reducing the climate impact from road transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, Anne Raaum; Gulbrandsen, Lars H.

    2012-07-01

    Transport is the second biggest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU, and contributes about one-quarter of the EU's total emissions of CO{sub 2}. Significant reductions in GHG emissions from transport are required if the EU is to achieve its long-term climate goals. This report examines the making and implementation of two of the regulations the EU has put in place to lower emissions from the transport sector: the EU's revised Fuel Quality Directive (Directive 2009/30/EC) and the cars/CO{sub 2} regulation (Regulation (EC) 443/2009). It was found that the relevance of various theories of policymaking in the EU varies with different policy phases. A policy-network understanding of EU policymaking is strengthened when assessing the policy-initiation phase. The Commission played a key role in this phase and drafted legislation in close collaboration with the car and oil refining industries. An intergovernmentalist understanding of EU policy-making is strengthened when assessing the decision-making phase. In this phase, member states defending the interests of their domestic industries had strong influence, but the European Parliament played an important role in this phase too, employing its power in the co-decision procedure. Finally, the implementation process is best understood as a multi-level governance process in which several actors and institutions - notably the Commission, member states, industries, and NGOs - influenced the process. (Author)

  3. Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

    OpenAIRE

    Rougier, Jonathan; Crucifix, Michel

    2014-01-01

    This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinc...

  4. Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

    CERN Document Server

    Rougier, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty.

  5. Residential Water Scarcity in Cyprus: Impact of Climate Change and Policy Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodoros Zachariadis

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an assessment of the cost of water scarcity in Cyprus, today and in the next 20 years, taking into account the effect of projected climate change in the region. It focuses on the residential sector, accounting also for tourism and industry. Using a simple demand function, total scarcity costs in Cyprus are computed for the period 2010–2030, and three scenarios of future water demand are presented. The central estimate shows that the present value of total costs due to water shortages will amount to 72 million Euros (at 2009 prices, and, if future water demand increases a little faster, these costs may reach 200 million Euros. Using forecasts of regional climate models, costs are found to be about 20% higher in a “climate change” scenario. Compared to the loss of consumer surplus due to water shortages, desalination is found to be a costly solution, even if environmental damage costs from the operation of desalination plants are not accounted for. Finally, dynamic constrained optimization is employed and shows that efficient residential water prices should include a scarcity price of about 40 Eurocents per cubic meter at  2009 prices; this would constitute a 30–100% increase in current prices faced by residential consumers. Reductions in rainfall due to climate change would raise this price by another 2-3 Eurocents. Such a pricing policy would provide a clear long-term signal to consumers and firms and could substantially contribute to a sustainable use of water resources in the island.

  6. Economics, ethics and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (118 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.)

  7. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  8. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  9. Report on modelling the macroeconomic competitiveness impacts of EU climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report details the results of a study carried out by Oxford Economics on the macroeconomic impacts of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on competitiveness in different sectors and different Member States. An economic model was used to assess the impacts of carbon pricing, building on previous work that looked at the effects on the UK economy. The model was used to estimate the impact on competitiveness and output associated with various carbon prices and assumptions for the proposed third EU ETS trading period (2013-2023) by sector for all countries. The model covered 30 sectors for each of the 27 EU Member states plus the USA, Japan and China. The report describes the EU model methodology (direct cost effects, second-round cost effects, cost effects without substitution, cost effects after substitution, pass through to prices, and output effects) and the key results in terms of: impacts of carbon-reduction policies unilateral EU action, sectoral impacts, electricity generation sector only; the non-power sector in the ETS; global action; developed world action; and a summary across all scenarios. The three annexes set out the UK Energy Industry Model (UKEIM), model equations for the EU-wide model and modelling assumptions for electricity generation

  10. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  11. Scenario development and assessment of the potential impacts of climate and market changes on crops in Europe : Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios (AgriAdapt project)

    OpenAIRE

    Ewert, F.; Angulo, C.; Rumbaur, C.; Lock, R; Enders, A.; Adenauer, M.; Heckelei, T.; Ittersum, van, M.K.; Wolf, J; Rötter, R.

    2011-01-01

    The Netherlands are an important producer and exporter of agricultural products. Changes in climate, markets and policies may have a large impact on the agricultural sector and farmers will need to adapt to these changes. Sector and policy documents have, so far, insufficiently considered the impacts of climate change and increased climate variability on the sector.

  12. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  13. Rural migration in Bolivia: the impact of climate change, economic crisis and state policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariscal, Carlos Balderrama; Tassi, Nico; Miranda, Ana Rubena; Canedo, Lucia Aramayo; Cazorla, Ivan

    2011-04-15

    This case study analyses current migration dynamics in two regions of Bolivia: Northern Potosi, one of the main areas of outmigration in Bolivia, and the municipality of San Julian in the Department of Santa Cruz, a major destination for internal migrants, some of whom come from Northern Potosi. The research was qualitative in nature, with specific attention to breadth and accuracy in the information and analysis. The methods used were participative and the research was done in collaboration with the rural and indigenous organisations in the two selected areas: the Federation of Indigenous Ayllus of Northern Potosi (Federacion de Ayllus Originarios Indigenas del Norte de Potosi Charka Qhara Qhara - FAOI-NP) and the Federation of Intercultural Communities of San Julian (Federacion de Comunidades Interculturales de San Julian). The information gathering process examined a wide range of factors that may trigger migration, including the possible influence of climate change and public policies on migration. The key challenge was to understand current patterns of migration, the processes involved and the social, cultural, economic and political causes and effects, taking into account issues that are increasing in importance, such as climate change, and seeking to discover the extent of their influence in the midst of other factors that drive migration. It is well known that migration is not a simple occurrence. In fact, it involves a series of processes, motivations, causes and decisions. Because it is a collective rather than an individual process, it takes on the character of a 'social phenomenon' that is historically and geographically determined. In many cases, there are cultural practices of transhumance, such as agriculture on different ecological levels or the use of winter and summer pastures. This involves people moving from one place to another, sometimes travelling long distances and crossing districts for several months at a time. These transhumance

  14. Climate policy after Kyoto

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Kyoto Convention recommends reductions in emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, to mitigate the rate of climate change. Lively debate has taken place in many countries, not least over the political and economic implications. The basis for the Kyoto discussions was a set of studies commissioned, compiled and published by the UN's International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). At first glance this scientific foundation plainly shows that significant climate change will occur unless emissions of greenhouse gases are sharply curtailed. On closer examination, the scientific evidence provided in the IPCC material is far from clear. Reputable scientists have expressed critical views about the interpretation of the scientific results and, even more, of the way the material is being used for policy purposes. The main purpose of this book is to voice this critique. To give the reader some context, a central section from the IPCC's basic document is presented first. There follow nine papers, by prominent natural and social scientists, in which the reasons for their sceptical attitudes are developed. A final paper by Professor Bert Bolin, chairman of the IPCC during the time when most of the material was produced, provides a response and commentary to the critique. The aim of the editor and authors, in presenting the material in this way, rather than as a polemical tract, is to leave open to the reader the question: Is global warming a consequence of man's activities, or are there other reasons; if so, is adopting policies with significant economic consequences, a reasonable response? (Author)

  15. Climate change impacts on working people : how to develop prevention policies

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Maria; Kjellström, Tord

    2010-01-01

    The evidence on negative consequences from climate change on human health and well-being is growing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described climate change as a threat to the climate system that sets the basis for life and human health conditions. The changing climate is expected to affect basic requirements needed to support and sustain human health such as good food, clean water, and unpolluted air, with negative effects that are expected to be unequally distributed.

  16. Invited Editorial: Climate change impacts on working people: how to develop prevention policies

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Maria; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2010-01-01

    The evidence on negative consequences from climate change on human health and well-being is growing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described climate change as a threat to the climate system that sets the basis for life and human health conditions. The changing climate is expected to affect basic requirements needed to support and sustain human health such as good food, clean water, and unpolluted air, with negative effects that are expected to be unequally distributed. ...

  17. Climate impacts of air quality policy: switching to a natural gas-fueled public transportation system in New Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Conor C O; Kandlikar, Milind

    2008-08-15

    Between 2001 and 2003, public transport vehicles in New Delhi were required to switch their fuel to natural gas in an attemptto reduce their air pollution impacts. This study examines the climatic impacts of New Delhi's fuel switching policy, and outlines implications for such efforts in rapidly industrializing countries. Natural gas is mostly composed of methane, an important greenhouse gas. Emitted aerosols (black carbon, particulate organic carbon, and sulfate) also cause radiative forcing. We find that methane and black carbon emissions are critical contributors to the change in carbon dioxide equivalent [CO2(e)] emissions. In New Delhi, the switch to natural gas results in a 30% increase in CO2(e) when the impact of aerosols is not considered. However, when aerosol emissions are taken into account in our model, the net effect of the switch is estimated to be a 10% reduction in CO2(e), and there may be as much as a 30% reduction in CO2(e). There is significant potential for emissions reductions through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Clean Development Mechanism for such fuel switching projects.

  18. Assessing climate impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Wohl, Ellen E.; Roger S. Pulwarty; Zhang, Jian Yun

    2000-01-01

    Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fu...

  19. The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the trophic regimes in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenario analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazzari, P.; Mattia, G.; Solidoro, C.; Salon, S.; Crise, A.; Zavatarelli, M.; Oddo, P.; Vichi, M.

    2014-07-01

    The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the Mediterranean Sea were analyzed in multi-annual simulations of carbon cycling in a planktonic ecosystem model. The modeling system is based on a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model that is off-line and forced by medium-resolution global climate simulations and by estimates of continental and river inputs of freshwater and nutrients. The simulations span the periods 1990-2000 and 2090-2100, assuming the IPCC SRES A1B scenario of climatic change at the end of the century. The effects of three different options on land use, mediated through rivers, are also considered. All scenarios indicate that the increase in temperature fuels an increase in metabolic rates. The gross primary production increases approximately 5% over the present-day figures, but the changes in productivity rates are compensated by augmented community respiration rates, so the net community production is stable with respect to present-day figures. The 21st century simulations are characterized by a reduction in the system biomass and by an enhanced accumulation of semi-labile dissolved organic matter. The largest changes in organic carbon production occur close to rivers, where the influence of changes in future nutrient is higher.

  20. Projected impacts to the production of outdoor recreation opportunities across US state park systems due to the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • A technical efficiency model identifies where state park systems can be improved. • The technical efficiency model is joined with output of CC policy simulations. • Shifts in operating expenditure under the CC mitigation policy are estimated. • Results reveal substantial variability across states. • Increasing technical efficiency is the best solution to adapt to CC policy impacts. - Abstract: Numerous empirical and simulation-based studies have documented or estimated variable impacts to the economic growth of nation states due to the adoption of domestic climate change mitigation policies. However, few studies have been able to empirically link projected changes in economic growth to the provision of public goods and services. In this research, we couple projected changes in economic growth to US states brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy with a longitudinal panel dataset detailing the production of outdoor recreation opportunities on lands managed in the public interest. Joining empirical data and simulation-based estimates allow us to better understand how the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy would affect the provision of public goods in the future. We first employ a technical efficiency model and metrics to provide decision makers with evidence of specific areas where operational efficiencies within the nation's state park systems can be improved. We then augment the empirical analysis with simulation-based changes in gross state product (GSP) to estimate changes to the states’ ability to provide outdoor recreation opportunities from 2014 to 2020; the results reveal substantial variability across states. Finally, we explore two potential solutions (increasing GSP or increasing technical efficiency) for addressing the negative impacts on the states’ park systems operating budgets brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy; the

  1. The carbon rent economics of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. We assess whether and how owners of oil, gas and coal can be compensated by a carbon permit grandfathering rule. One important finding is that reducing (cumulative) fossil resource use could actually increase scarcity rents and benefit fossil resource owners under a permit grandfathering rule. For our standard parameter setting overall scarcity rents under climate policy increase slightly. While low discount rates of resource owners imply higher rent losses due to climate policies, new developments of reserves or energy efficiency improvements could more than double scarcity rents under climate policy. Another important implication is that agents receiving the climate rent (regulating institutions or owners of grandfathered permits) could influence the climate target such that rents are maximized, rather than to limit global warming to a socially desirable level. For our basic parameter setting, rents would be maximized at approximately 650 GtC emissions (50% of business-as-usual emissions) implying a virtual certainty of exceeding a 2 °C target and a likelihood of 4 °C warming. - Highlights: • Fossil resource rents form a substantial share of the global GDP. • Fossil resource owners can benefit from climate policy. • Climate targets might be influenced by rent-maximizing aspects

  2. Climate change policies and international trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report examines the potential impacts of international climate change agreements on international trade and trade flows, and on the options, or lack of options, to take legal action, for example within the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO), to mitigate unwanted side-effects of such international agreements. In particular, the study addresses the following three questions: (1) what are the impacts of existing and potential climate change agreements on the external trade positions of participating countries, non-participating countries and energy exporting countries?; (2) how do specific economic instruments of climate change policy (joint implementation, tradable emission permits, or charges) affect international trade and how do they relate to the Kyoto protocol? (3) which trade measures (trade restricting or trade enhancing) could be implemented in relation to international climate change agreements to mitigate or compensate for unwanted side-effects? By providing an overview of the legal and policy aspects of the climate change regime, this report seeks to shed an analytical light on the key issues that international negotiators are to address. Legal aspects between climate change policies and trade policies are examined in the context of three scenarios: 'full ratification', 'partial ratification', and 'non-ratification, but national measures'. Each of these scenarios give rise to potential trade conflicts. The report examines Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models that are used for the economic evaluation of climate change policies and uses one such model: the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 'E' model for its own analysis. The report assesses consequences of different policy scenarios for international trade, economic welfare and for the global environment. It also looks at specific industry impacts and discusses ways to mitigate unwanted side-effects. refs

  3. Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa Pinto, L.M.; Harrison, G.W. [Universidade do Minho, Braga (Portugal). Nucleo de Investigacao em Microeconomia Aplicada, Departmento de Economia

    2000-07-01

    Negotiations in the real world have many features that tend to be ignored in policy modelling. They are often multilateral, involving many negotiating parties with preferences over outcomes that can differ substantially. They are also often multi-dimensional, in the sense that several policies are negotiated over simultaneously. Trade negotiations are a prime example, as are negotiations over environmental policies to abate CO{sub 2}. The authors demonstrate how one can formally model this type of negotiation process. They use a policy-oriented computable general equilibrium model to generate preference functions which are then used in a formal multilateral bargaining game. The case study is on climate change policy, but the main contribution is to demonstrate how one can integrate formal economic models of the impacts of policies with formal bargaining models of the negotiations over those policies. 8 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  4. Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-08-01

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity.

  5. Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-08-01

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. PMID:26203007

  6. Residential Water Scarcity in Cyprus: Impact of Climate Change and Policy Options

    OpenAIRE

    Theodoros Zachariadis

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the cost of water scarcity in Cyprus, today and in the next 20 years, taking into account the effect of projected climate change in the region. It focuses on the residential sector, accounting also for tourism and industry. Using a simple demand function, total scarcity costs in Cyprus are computed for the period 2010–2030, and three scenarios of future water demand are presented. The central estimate shows that the present value of total costs due to wate...

  7. POLICIES TO REDUCE THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT - FROM SPEECH TO PRACTICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru-Marian CHIPER

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In the last 50 years, at global level, the industry, agriculture, transport infrastructure and services have gone through a long process of transformation, both of intensive as well as extensive nature. The mutations occurred due to the demographic duplication and also social structure changing, this fast development was supported by the research and technological progress. Of course, the other side of the picture is the massive pollution, with serious consequences for the environment and in chain negative effects, at planetary level. If at first these phenomena had not a major interest for the scientific community, today they represent an area of major interest for the quantitative research, sometimes being a matter of interdisciplinary dispute, but often a factor of synergy, political, legal, technical and of course scientific. In this article we summarize the main national and international policies to adapt to the effects of climate changes and to reduce their impact on the agriculture and environment, through presenting the main legislative measures and the existing operational plans, formulated according the research results in this area. At the same time, this paper addresses to the agriculture specialists and officials from the administrative sphere, in order to identify and reduce the effects of this phenomenon over the agriculture and environment.

  8. The Social Impact of Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Managing climate change requires that we understand the social value of climate-related decisions. Rational decision-making demands that we weigh the potential benefits of climate-related investments against their costs. To date, it has been challenging to quantify the relative social benefit of living under different climatic conditions, so policy debates tend to focus on investment costs without considering their benefits. Here I will discuss challenges and advances in the measurement of climate's impact on society. By linking data and methods across physical and social sciences, we are beginning to understand when, where, and how climatic conditions have a causal impact on human wellbeing. I will present examples from this burgeoning interdisciplinary field that quantify the effect of temperature on macroeconomic performance, the effects of climate on human conflict, and the long-term health and economic impact of tropical cyclones. Each of these examples provide new insight into previously unknown benefits of various climate management strategies. I conclude by describing new efforts to systematically gather and compare findings from across the research community to support informed and rational climate management decisions.

  9. Uncertain outcomes and climate change policy

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck

    2011-01-01

    Focusing on tail effects, I incorporate distributions for temperature change and its economic impact in an analysis of climate change policy. I estimate the fraction of consumption w*(tau) that society would be willing to sacrifice to ensure that any increase in temperature at a future point is limited to tau. Using information on the distributions for temperature change and economic impact from studies assembled by the IPCC and from "integrated assessment models" (IAMs), I fit displaced gamm...

  10. Forest policy implications of climate change: Economic impacts and potential mitigation strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Increasing mean global temperatures due to rising levels of carbon dioxide and other ''greenhouse'' gases in the atmosphere could affect the distribution of commercially important forests in North America significantly. The temperature increases might outpace the ability of forests to adapt, causing considerable stress and mortality to trees in the southern part of their range without a commensurate increase in growth across the expanding range. If realized, these potential biological impacts on forest distribution and health would affect management decisions substantially and could adversely impact forest-based economies in the United States. Specific effects on forest management include changes in the methods and costs of fire, insect, and disease protection; greater demands on forest lands for conversion to food production; and uncertain changes in site quality. One means of mitigating the effects of CO2 emissions is to establish tree plantations for carbon sequestration. Preliminary analyses suggest that a program aimed at marginal cropland in the South could store more than 563 million tons of carbon over 45 years, although 90 million tons would be lost due to risks associated with plantations

  11. Induced Technological Change in a Multi-regional, Multi-sectoral Integrated Assessment Model (WIAGEM): Impact Assessment of Climate Policy Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Kemfert, Claudia

    2004-01-01

    This paper illustrates the representation of induced technological change in the multi- regional, multi-sectoral integrated assessment model WIAGEM. The main aim of this paper is to investigate quantitatively economic impacts of climate policy measures due to induced technological changes that are considered. Improved technological innovations are triggered by increased R&D expenditures that advance energy efficiencies. Model results show that induced technological changes due to increased in...

  12. Impact of Energy and Climate Policies on Electricity Generation - Analysis based on Large-scale Unit Commitment Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Van den Bergh, Kenneth

    2016-01-01

    Electricity generation systems in Europe are undergoing dramatic changes, largely driven by changing energy and climate policies. In this dissertation, three evolutions are dealt with in particular: (1) the deployment of intermittent renewables in electricity systems such as wind and solar photovoltaics, (2) the integration of electricity markets and (3) the mitigation of CO2 emissions from the electricity sector. The focus of this dissertation is on the technical and cost-related aspects...

  13. Technology and international climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology.

  14. Technology and international climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, Leon; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall

    2009-05-01

    Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology.

  15. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  16. A climate for development. Climate change policy options for Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The seriousness of the potential impacts of climate change on development in Africa is now well recognized within, and increasingly outside, scientific circles. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a landmark in international environmental governance, providing a mechanism for exchange, negotiation and institution-building to re-direct development towards more efficient use of resources, especially energy. The message of 'A climate for Development' is that unless policy-makers fully understand both the international commitments made under the Convention and the essential national development priorities of their own countries, effective action on climate change is unlikely to be realized. The action needed, however, can at the same time stimulate capacity-building, planning and policy change which would strengthen the economic and ecological base of African countries. The climate change issue has hence brought us face to face with the urgency of the basic issues of sustainable development in Africa. The book discusses key issues that cut across all African countries, such as emissions and their impacts, financial resources and technology transfer for emissions abatement strategies. It then provides a sectoral analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and abatement options focusing on energy, industry, agriculture, forestry and transportation. The book concludes with guidelines for options which may be considered by African countries to ensure that climate change concerns are effectively dealt with in the context of their development priorities. 113 refs

  17. Scenario development and assessment of the potential impacts of climate and market changes on crops in Europe : Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios (AgriAdapt project)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Angulo, C.; Rumbaur, C.; Lock, R.; Enders, A.; Adenauer, M.; Heckelei, T.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Wolf, J.; Rötter, R.

    2011-01-01

    The Netherlands are an important producer and exporter of agricultural products. Changes in climate, markets and policies may have a large impact on the agricultural sector and farmers will need to adapt to these changes. Sector and policy documents have, so far, insufficiently considered the impact

  18. The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J -F; Foley, A M; Chewpreecha, U; Pollitt, H

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of possible uses of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology innovation-diffusion perspective. Emissions reductions occur through changes in technology and energy consumption; in this context, investment decision-making opportunities occur periodically, which energy policy can incentivise in order to transform energy systems and meet reductions targets. Energy markets are driven by innovation, dynamic costs and technology diffusion; yet, the incumbent systems optimisation methodology in energy modelling does not address these aspects nor the effectiveness of policy onto decision-making since the dynamics modelled take their source from the top-down `social-planner' assumption. This leads to an underestimation of strong technology lock-ins in cost-optimal scenarios of technology. Our approach explores the global diffusion of low carbon technology in connection to a highly disaggregated sector...

  19. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  20. Climate Impacts on Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Climate Change Impacts Human Health Impacts Human Health Climate Impacts on Human Health Climate Impacts on Alaska On This Page Temperature-Related ... very old) are especially vulnerable to health impacts. Climate Change Affects Human Health In 2016, the U.S. ...

  1. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  2. Optimal Climate Protection Policies Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, M.; Barth, V.; Hasselmann, K.; Hooss, G.

    A cost-benefit analysis for greenhouse warming based on a globally integrated cou- pled climate-macro economic cost model SIAM2 (Structural Integrated Assessment Model) is used to compute optimal paths of global CO2 emissions. The aim of the model is to minimize the net time-integrated sum of climate damage and mitigation costs (or maximize the economic and social welfare). The climate model is repre- sented by a nonlinear impulse-response model (NICCS) calibrated against a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model and a three-dimensional global carbon cycle model. The latest version of the economic module is based a macro economic growth model, which is designed to capture not only the interactions between cli- mate damages and economic development, but also the conflicting goals of individual firms and society (government). The model includes unemployment, limited fossil fuel resources, endogenous and stochastic exogenous technological development (unpre- dictable labor or fuel efficiency innovations of random impact amplitude at random points in time). One objective of the project is to examine optimal climate protection policies in the presence of uncertainty. A stochastic model is introduced to simulate the development of technology as well as climate change and climate damages. In re- sponse to this (stochastic) prediction, the fiscal policy is adjusted gradually in a series of discrete steps. The stochastic module includes probability-based methods, sensitiv- ity studies and formal szenario analysis.

  3. A Scientific Basis for Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Scientific Council on Climate Issues has been commissioned by the Swedish Government to provide a scientific assessment as a basis for the work of the Climate Committee, the all-party committee for the review of climate policy. An important part of this task is to provide a basis and recommendations for Swedish climate policy targets at national, EU and international level. In the opening chapters, the Council looks at climate change, its reasons and its consequences for ecosystems and society. The Council then makes recommendations concerning Swedish climate policy targets at global, EU and national levels, aimed at averting dangerous impact on the climate. In the concluding chapters, the Council presents a number of possible measures and policy instruments, and outlines the likely costs involved if the goals are to be achieved. Taken as a whole, the document represents a comprehensive basis for policy decisions that consider what needs to be achieved to reduce the risks of climate impact and what is actually achievable, i.e. decisions involving trade-offs between economic benefits and costs. The Council considers: that the EU's GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level should be reduced by 30-40 % by 2020 and by 75-90 % by 2050 if the Union is to take its share of the global responsibility for achievement of the two-degree target; that Sweden's GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level should be reduced by 20-25 % by 2020 and by 70-85 % by 2050 if Sweden is to take its share of the global responsibility for achievement of the two-degree target; that a national emission target for Sweden should be formulated as a target with deductible emissions allowances, i.e., that assessment of target achievement is based on the amount of emission allowances allocated or auctioned by Sweden to activities covered by the EU emissions trading scheme rather than the actual volume of emissions from these activities. The Council has provided an overview of possible measures for

  4. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

  5. Climate policy and the international steam coal demand

    OpenAIRE

    Mæstad, Ottar

    2003-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of climate policies on the international steam coal demand, focussing particularly on Western Europe and Japan. Steam coal consumption is heavily concentrated on a few industry sectors (power production, steel and cement). We scrutinize the coal demand structure of these industries, assess the impact of climate policies on production costs and competitiveness, and discuss likely consequences for coal demand. Our scenarios for the future coal demand in Western Eu...

  6. U.S. climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The international climate agreement does make sense if they are supported by the United States, the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gas (GHG) per capita. But this country is now bound by any treaty that forced him to reduce this pollution. The national energy transition is delayed: the lifestyle and the American system of production are still largely rely on fossil fuels. The coming to power of Barack Obama, who announced his intention to engage in action against climate change, had raised hopes of the international community: the Copenhagen compromise and agreements resulting from Cancun also directly the involvement of American and Chinese leaders. Since then, however, the context has changed dramatically: the economic crisis makes priority policies to boost growth. The abandonment of the climate bills in Congress, the Supreme Court decision restricting States' initiatives and actions taken by the Republican opposition to block the regulations of the Federal Agency for Environmental Protection (EPA) led to a slowing of presidential ambitions. They are focusing on an energy security strategy, providing for the operation of large domestic reserves of oil, reducing import dependency - constant of U.S. policy since the presidency of Richard Nixon - the use of alternatives energy, and finally the acceleration of energy efficiency in transport and construction. This orientation requires a staunch support to innovation, according to the will of American leadership in global technology industry green. Internationally, the meeting between Chinese and U.S. presidents in Copenhagen has identified the concessions acceptable to each of these key players in the negotiations. The special envoy of the White House reminds happy: the United States does not object to a new global agreement but discussions about it should only take the implementation of measures adopted in Cancun, whose variation to be the main issue of the Durban conference in late November 2011. Washington

  7. ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry (and others)

    2009-07-31

    ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

  8. Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Assad, Eduardo; Pinto, Hilton S.; Nassar, Andre; Harfuch, Leila; Freitas, Saulo; Farinelli, Barbara; Lundell, Mark; Erick C.M. Fernandes

    2013-01-01

    This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet nat...

  9. Variability of contrail formation conditions and the implications for policies to reduce the climate impacts of aviation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes an approach to balance the climate benefits of contrail reduction against the penalties incurred when cruise altitudes are restricted. Altitude restrictions are targeted by selecting, for each 6-h period, the altitude that provides the greatest reduction in contrail for the lowest increase in carbon dioxide emission. Calculations are for western Europe. This paper discusses the variability in contrail formation conditions in the region and presents contrail reductions and carbon dioxide emission increases obtained with this optimised approach, which compare favourably with fixed altitude restrictions. A new method is also developed to estimate contrail fractions within three-dimensional grids. Conclusions discuss potential operational issues associated with a varying altitude restriction policy. (Author)

  10. Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo; Stone, Dáithí; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-10-01

    The Paris Climate Agreement is an important step for international climate policy, but the compensation for negative effects of climate change based on clear assignment of responsibilities remains highly debated. From both a policy and a science perspective, it is unclear how responsibilities should be defined and on what evidence base. We explore different normative principles of justice relevant to climate change impacts, and ask how different forms of causal evidence of impacts drawn from detection and attribution research could inform policy approaches in accordance with justice considerations. We reveal a procedural injustice based on the imbalance of observations and knowledge of impacts between developed and developing countries. This type of injustice needs to be considered in policy negotiations and decisions, and efforts strengthened to reduce it.

  11. Comparing climate policies to reduce carbon emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currently, China is the largest carbon emitter mainly due to growing consumption of fossil fuels. In 2009, the Chinese government committed itself to reducing domestic carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Therefore, it is a top priority for the Chinese government to adopt efficient policy instruments to reduce its carbon intensity. Against this background, this paper develops a general equilibrium model and seeks to provide empirical contributions by comparing the potential impacts of several different policy options to reduce China's carbon emissions. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, these climate policies would affect the structure of economy and contribute to carbon emissions reduction and carbon intensity reduction. Secondly, there would be significant differences in the economic and environmental effects among different climate policies and hence, the government would trade-off among different economic objectives to overcome any potential resistances. Thirdly, there would be considerable differences in the emissions effects of absolute and intensity-based carbon emissions controls, implying that the government might adopt different climate policies for absolute or intensity-based carbon emissions controls. Looking ahead, the government should trade-off among different objectives when designing climate reforms. - Highlights: • We develop a static general equilibrium model to simulate the impacts of climate policies. • We compare the potential impacts of various climate policies in China. • We discuss how to design these policies to make them more effective

  12. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya Negev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders.

  13. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

    2015-06-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  14. Investment under Uncertain Climate Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barradale, Merrill Jones

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of payment probability as an important component of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under uncertain climate policy). In modeling power plant investment decisions, most existing literature uses the expected carbon price (e.g., the price...... actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the surge of activity in 2005–2006 and the subsequent decline in interest in coal-fired power plant development in the U.S. The data for this case study comes from an extensive online survey of 700 U.S. energy...

  15. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  16. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  17. Gender mainstreaming and EU climate change policy

    OpenAIRE

    Allwood, Gill

    2014-01-01

    This article uses feminist institutionalism to examine how gender mainstreaming has been sidelined in European Union (EU) climate change policy. It finds that, with a few exceptions largely emanating from the European Parliament's Committee on Women's Rights and Gender Equality, EU responses to climate change are gender-blind. This is despite the Treaty obligations to gender mainstream policy in all areas and despite the intersections between climate change and development policy, which is re...

  18. Putting Climate Change Adaptation in the Development Mainstream. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change poses a serious challenge to social and economic development. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable because their economies are generally more dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources, and because they are less able to cope with the impacts of climate change. How development occurs has implications, in turn, for climate change and for the vulnerability of societies to its impacts. Climate change adaptation needs to be brought into the mainstream of economic policies, development projects, and international aid efforts. Considerable analytical work has been done on how development can be made climate-friendly in terms of helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change, although implementation remains a challenge. Much less attention has been paid to how development can be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change. In a narrow engineering sense, this could involve taking climate changes into account in the siting and design of bridges and other infrastructure. At a policy level, it could involve considering the implications of climate change on a variety of development activities including poverty reduction, sectoral development, and natural resource management. Bridging the gap between the climate change adaptation and development communities, however, is not easy. The two communities have different priorities, often operate on different time and space scales, and do not necessarily 'speak the same language'. Specific information is therefore needed on the significance of climate change for development activities along with operational guidance on how best to adapt to its impacts, within the context of other pressing social priorities. This Policy Brief looks at how far current development policies and programmes are taking climate change risks into account, as well as at ways to improve the 'mainstreaming' of adaptation to climate change in development planning and assistance

  19. Climate policies under wealth inequality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Vítor V; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M; Levin, Simon A

    2014-02-11

    Taming the planet's climate requires cooperation. Previous failures to reach consensus in climate summits have been attributed, among other factors, to conflicting policies between rich and poor countries, which disagree on the implementation of mitigation measures. Here we implement wealth inequality in a threshold public goods dilemma of cooperation in which players also face the risk of potential future losses. We consider a population exhibiting an asymmetric distribution of rich and poor players that reflects the present-day status of nations and study the behavioral interplay between rich and poor in time, regarding their willingness to cooperate. Individuals are also allowed to exhibit a variable degree of homophily, which acts to limit those that constitute one's sphere of influence. Under the premises of our model, and in the absence of homophily, comparison between scenarios with wealth inequality and without wealth inequality shows that the former leads to more global cooperation than the latter. Furthermore, we find that the rich generally contribute more than the poor and will often compensate for the lower contribution of the latter. Contributions from the poor, which are crucial to overcome the climate change dilemma, are shown to be very sensitive to homophily, which, if prevalent, can lead to a collapse of their overall contribution. In such cases, however, we also find that obstinate cooperative behavior by a few poor may largely compensate for homophilic behavior.

  20. Climate Policy and Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This report explores the effects of the EU emissions trading scheme on the aluminium sector (i.e. competitiveness loss and carbon leakage). With its very high electricity intensity, primary aluminium stands out in the heavy industry picture: a sector whose emissions are not capped in the present EU ETS, European aluminium smelters still stand to lose profit margins and, possibly, market shares, as electricity prices increase following CO2 caps on generators' emissions - the famous pass-through of CO2 prices into electricity prices. The analysis includes a method of quantification of this issue, based on two indicators: profit margins and trade flows. As the EU is at the forefront of such policy, the paper provides policy messages to all countries on how trade exposed energy-intensive industries can be 'moved' by carbon constraint. This also is a contentious topic in Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, where ambitious climate policies -- including cap-and-trade systems -- are currently debated.

  1. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  2. Energy policies, liberalization and the framing of climate change policies in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherian, Anilla

    Global climate change has emerged a new environmental issue affecting developing countries particularly after the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in June 1992. This dissertation focuses on the factors which motivate Indian responses to global climate change at the international level. The study evaluates the relative impacts of two policy frames in the formulation of India's national climate change policy stance. The concept of "policy frames" refers to the idea that the definition of, and responses to a particular problem are constructed in terms of another more pressing and salient policy concern. A "policy frame" is an analytically constructed policy filter comprised of key, identifiable, policy features and existing resource constraints in a sector. The study traces the evolution of national energy (coal power and renewable energy) and environment sector policies under centralized planning based on a survey of a series of Five Year Plans (1970-1997). Characteristic sectoral policies are identified as constituting an "energy-related development policy frame" and an "environment-related development policy frame" under two distinct phases of national economic development--a managed economy and a liberalized economy. The study demonstrates that the 1991 shift towards phased economic liberalization resulted not only in a new set of energy (coal, power and renewable energy) policies and consequently an altered energy policy frame, but also in a largely unchanged set of environmental sector policies and consequently only a marginally altered environmental policy frame. The study demonstrates that the post-1991 energy policy changes together with existing energy resource constraints, constitute the dominant policy frame driving both the formulation of Indian policy stances at international climate change negotiations and also Indian responsiveness to coal, power, renewable energy, and climate change projects funded by the World Bank

  3. Issues in International Climate Policy: Theory and Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.; Gupta, J.; Kok, M.T.J.

    2003-01-01

    Climate change is currently at the center of scientific and political debate, and the need for well-designed international climate policies is widely recognized. Despite this, the complexity of both the climate change problem and the international negotiation process has resulted in a large number o

  4. Many gases and many measures: Choice of targets and selection of measures in climate policy

    OpenAIRE

    Aaheim, H. Asbjørn

    1997-01-01

    This report discusses the economic impacts of taking a comprehensive approach to climate policy. A comprehensive climate policy implies that all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of climate gases are covered. From the outset, this widens the policy options, and leads to a higher degree of flexibility when it comes to the implementation of measures. This study provides a model-based analysis of how the costs of climate policy may be affected. Inclusion of many greenhouse gases require...

  5. Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigras, S. C.

    2009-12-01

    It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

  6. Cooperation and discord in global climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keohane, Robert O.; Victor, David G.

    2016-06-01

    Effective mitigation of climate change will require deep international cooperation, which is much more difficult to organize than the shallow coordination observed so far. Assessing the prospects for effective joint action on climate change requires an understanding of both the structure of the climate change problem and national preferences for policy action. Preferences have become clearer in light of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties in December 2015. Although deep cooperation remains elusive, many partial efforts could build confidence and lead to larger cuts in emissions. This strategy of decentralized policy coordination will not solve the climate problem, but it could lead incrementally to deeper cooperation.

  7. Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics, and Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Nakicenovic, N.; Nordhaus, W.D.; Richels, R.; Toth, F.L.

    1996-01-01

    This volume reports on the proceedings of the third international workshop on "Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics, and Policy" held at IIASA in March 1996. Currently, it is widely recognized in both the analytical and policy communities that the complex issues surrounding the prospect of climate change and response measures and policies cannot be adequately assessed from the perspective of any single discipline in either the natural or social sciences, and that these issues cannot...

  8. Policy in Transition. New Framework for Russia's Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 2000, Russia entered the second round of radical reforms of its economic and political system. These changes affect the institutions of the macro- and microeconomic policy, of the energy policy, as well as the institutions of the climate policy. Thus, the framework is currently being built in Russia within which the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are being and will be implemented. Success, or failure, in Russia's interactions with the international community in implementation of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol would depend, particularly, on whether it would be able to establish renovated climate policy institutions in the nearest future. Main provisions of the Kyoto Protocol open good perspectives for the climate policy of Russia. For these favourable perspectives to become a reality, Russia will have to accomplish quite a lot at the domestic, national level. Here, Russia is facing some serious problems. Among them are recently emerged problems with ratification of Kyoto Protocol

  9. Policy Responses to Climate Change in Southeast Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Toth, F.L.

    1992-01-01

    This report presents an overview of and summarizes the general conclusions from a UNEP project conducted in Southeast Asia to identify socio-economic impacts of and policy responses to climate change. A series of agricultural crops, river basins, and coastal areas were selected in order to study the biophysical impacts, which were then traced through to the most heavily affected economic activities and social groups. Policy exercises were conducted in Malaysia and Indonesia to present the re...

  10. Climate Modeling in Support of Policy Decisionmaking in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasseur, G. P.

    2010-12-01

    As a reaction to the increasing demand for climate information for adaptation strategies, the Climate Service Center (CSC) has been founded in Germany. The main objective of CSC is bringing together climate change information, impact assessments and economic and policy strategies in one institution and thus facilitating communication between the disciplines and sectors. It became obvious, that bridging the gap between available climate change information and the requirements of the impact, vulnerability and adaptation communities is of utmost importance. Two different aspects have to be considered: the temporal and spatial refinement of biogeophysical quantities, usually done via dynamical or statistical downscaling of the coarse-scale climate information, and the incorporation of uncertainty measures into the decision making process for adaptation policies. For both aspects, communication is the key necessity. Organizing thematic workshops to assemble the disciplines is therefore one keystone of the CSC work. During the presentation, the CSC vision, strategy and methodologies will be explained.

  11. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  12. Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-21

    Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.

  13. Long-Term Forecast 2012 - An impact analysis of existing policy instruments in energy- and climate area; Laangsiktsprognos 2012 - En konsekvensanalys av gaellande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatomraadet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-01

    The Energy Agency has a mandate that under 'Ordinance on climate reporting' (SFS 2005:626) out projections for the energy sector of the European Parliament and Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a 'Mechanism for monitoring the emissions of the Community greenhouse gas'. This report contains a reference trajectory until 2030, and two sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that results of the report should not be regarded as a proper projection of future energy, but as the impact of current policy instruments given different conditions such as economic growth and fuel prices. The Energy Authority's long-term forecasts are studied energy system's long-term development on the basis of policy instruments and several assumed conditions. The conditions for this long-term prognosis was established in January 2012 and has its basis in the policy instruments decided until the turn of 2011/2012. The work was partially done in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency assignments 'Assignment to provide input to a Swedish road map for Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050' as reported in December 2012. For a short-term development of the energy system the reader is referred to the Energy Authority's short-term forecasts that extend two to three years into the future and that are produced twice a year. Energy Agency's long-term projections are impact assessments with time horizon of 10-20 years which aims to describe the energy system's future development, provided a range of assumed conditions. If any of these conditions change it will also change forecast results. Economic development is an important assumption for the assessment of future energy.

  14. Impacts of Land use and biofuels policy on climate: IGSM-TEM Land use in CAM3.1-CLM3.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallgren, W.; Schlosser, C. A.; Monier, E.

    2011-12-01

    Two land-use frameworks derived from a model of the global economy were used to explore the climate impacts of an energy policy which involves the large scale plantation of cellulosic biofuels to meet 10% of the global energy demand. These frameworks were (i) Pure Cost Conversion Response (PCCR), or 'extensification' scenario, where the price of land constrains agricultural conversion, including growing biofuels, and; (ii) Observed Land Supply Response (OLSR), or 'intensification', where legal, environmental and other constraints encourage more intense use of existing agricultural land (i.e. less forest clearing). The land cover of the Community Atmospheric Model Version 3.0 (CAM3.0) was manipulated to reflect four different land use and energy scenarios (i.e. PCCR and OLSR with and without biofuels). CAM3.0 was run to equilibrium under 1990 and 2050 climate conditions, in order to assess the impact these land cover changes have on the atmospheric state. For the 2050 climate conditions, CAM was prescribed with concentrations of radiatively active trace gases (a.k.a. greenhouse gases), derived from an Integrated Global System Model using the same economic model, that result from a moderate stabilization target by the end of the 21st century. When the biofuel policy is implemented, both economic frameworks increase the land-surface reflectivity over much of the land surface in the extratropics, indicating that biofuel cropland is replacing darker land-vegetation types, and decreasing absorption of solar radiation. This leads to a cooling effect which is strongest in the northern hemisphere and occurs to a greater extent in the PCCR scenario, and is also present to a lesser extent in the PCCR-without-biofuels scenario. Although these temperature changes are for the most part overwhelmed by the trace-gas forcing (i.e. anthropogenic warming), the PCCR scenario land cover changes act to notably lessen the warming. However, in much of the Amazonian and African tropics

  15. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation. (letter)

  16. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-09-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

  17. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  18. People's opinion of climate policy. Popular support for climate policy alternatives in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marino, Sjoevaag Marit; Bjoerge, Nils Erik; Ericson, Torgeir; Garnaasjordet, Per Arild; Karlsen, Haakon T.; Randers; Joergen; Rees, Daniel

    2012-07-01

    How can we evaluate whether national climate policies are sufficient? Which moral principles should be the basis of our policy efforts? The answers to these questions are central to the development of any climate policy framework, but not always made explicit in daily political discourse. In this article we seek to redress this imbalance through a survey of popular opinion in Norway.(Author)

  19. Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

    2014-12-01

    To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

  20. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  1. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-10-16

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

  2. CIRCLE 2 policy brief: Communicate uncertainties- design climate adaptation measures to be flexible and robust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelt, van S.C.; Avelar, D.; Swart, R.J.

    2010-01-01

    This policy brief is directed towards funders and managers of climate change impacts and adaptation research programmes as well as policy makers in this area. It notes various challenges in addressing uncertainties in climate change research and policy and provides suggestions on how to address them

  3. Impact of international climate policies on CO2 capture and storage deployment Illustrated in the Dutch energy system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broek, M.A.; Veenendaal, P.; Koutstaal, P.; Turkenburg, W.C.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2011-01-01

    A greenhouse gas emission trading system is considered an important policy measure for the deployment of CCS at large scale. However, more insights are needed whether such a trading system leads to a sufficient high CO2 price and stable investment environment for CCS deployment. To gain more insight

  4. Green Fiscal Policy and Climate Change Mitigation in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Budy P. Resosudarmo; Abdurohman

    2011-01-01

    In common with other archipelagic countries, Indonesia is vulnerable to such impacts of climate change as prolonged droughts, increased frequency in extreme weather events, and heavy rainfall resulting in floods. These threats, coupled with the fact that Indonesia has been declared one of the three biggest greenhouse gases emitters, has induced the Indonesian government to place a high priority on climate change issues. In particular, the government considers its fiscal policy to be a key ins...

  5. Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions

  6. Climate Impacts of the Paris Agreement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, Andrei; Paltsev, Sergey; Chen, Henry; Monier, Erwan

    2016-04-01

    The UN agreement signed during the recent COP21 meeting in Paris defines policies which supposed to be implemented by different countries to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Those agreed policies, however, only cover the period up to 2030 and they do not specify actions after 2030. As a result, projections of the long-term climate impact of the Paris agreement produced by different research groups differ significantly because they make different assumptions about the policies after 2030. In this study we estimate possible impacts using the MIT Integrated Global System Model, which consists of the human activity model, Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and a climate model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Earth System Model (MESM). In addition to the "no climate policy" scenario, we consider a scenario that incorporates the emissions targets proposed by the international community to address the challenges of climate change based on the submissions to the COP21 process. For the post-2030 period we create several variations: a) no additional climate policy after 2030, but the proposed cuts are extended to 2100; b) reductions in emissions and emission intensities after 2030 at the same rate as in the 2020-2030 period; 3) in addition to the conditions in the previous no country increases its GHG emissions after 2050. Based on the emission scenarios, we simulate possible future climate changes. Our analysis shows that, for the climate parameters corresponding to the median strength of the climate system response to anthropogenic forcing, the Paris Agreement can reduce the global mean surface air temperature (SAT) in 2100 between 0.63 and 1.07oC relative to "no climate policy" case. At the same time, due to a large inertia of climate system, in 2050 the SAT reduced only by about 0.12oC under all three scenarios. Under all three variants of an extension of the Paris Agreement an increase in the SAT relative to an 1861

  7. Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck

    2013-01-01

    Very little. A plethora of integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been constructed and used to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) and evaluate alternative abatement policies. These models have crucial flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis: certain inputs (e.g., the discount rate) are arbitrary, but have huge effects on the SCC estimates the models produce; the models' descriptions of the impact of climate change are completely ad hoc, with no theoretical o...

  8. Policy brief on climate engineering

    OpenAIRE

    Wibeck, Victoria; Hansson, Anders; Himmelsbach, Raffael; Fridahl, Mathias; Linnér, Björn-Ola; Anshelm, Jonas

    2016-01-01

    Climate engineering (geoengineering) has been widely discussed as a potential instrument for curbing global warming if politics fails to deliver green house gas emission reductions. This debate has lost momentum over the last couple of years, but is now being renewed in the wake of the December 2015 Paris climate change agreement. Resurgent interest primarily stems from two elements of the Paris agreement. First, by defining the long term goal as “achiev[ing] a balance between anthropogenic e...

  9. Climate Impact of Solar Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H. (Editor); Arking, Albert (Editor)

    1990-01-01

    The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes.

  10. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

  11. Unemployment effects of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper models the unemployment effects of restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, embodying two of the most significant types of short-term economic imperfections that generate unemployment: sectoral rigidities in labor mobility and sectoral rigidities in wage adjustments. A labor policy is also analyzed that would reduce the direct negative economic effects of the emissions restrictions. The politics of limiting greenhouse gas emissions are often dominated by relatively short-term considerations. Yet the current economic modeling of emissions limitations does not embody economic features that are likely to be particularly important in the short term, in particular, the politically sensitive unemployment rate. Moreover, only a few of these studies also consider policies that would offset the negative direct economic effects of emissions restrictions. For plausible estimates of the parameters, the model shows that, with the labor market imperfections, if there were no offsetting policies, the reductions in GNP in the U.S. in the first 10 years after emissions restrictions were imposed would be as much as 4%. However, if there were two policies, instead of just one: a counteracting labor market policy, as well as the emissions restrictions, the negative direct economic effects could be completely eliminated

  12. Canada's climate change policy in context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change has a wide range of implications for the health, well-being, and economic prospects for Canadians, and for the ecological systems that sustain life on this planet. The overwhelming scientific opinion, world leaders and even a growing number of corporate leaders now agree that the Earth is undergoing a significant and unusual warming period as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There is also wide agreement that much of this build-up is anthropogenic, and that a global effort is required to slow this trend. Because climate change is a global problem, it requires global solutions by way of reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, the Kyoto Agreement of 1997 constitutes a major breakthrough, even though it takes only a small step towards towards altering the human impact on global climate. Although some 80 states, plus the European Union signed the Kyoto Protocol, it remains unclear when it will come into force because the majority of states have failed to ratify it, pending the resolution of a variety of technical and operational details. Canada is the second highest emitter of greenhouse gases (16 tonnes per capita, compared to world average of 3.6 tonnes per capita). This, combined with Canada's foreign policy goals of playing a leading role in taking action and preserving its reputation as an honest broker, makes the challenge of meeting Canada's Kyoto commitments especially pressing. The purpose of this paper is to explain Canada's climate change policy in the context of these international and domestic pressures. The paper identifies the main climate change-related policy challenges, international responses to date and the constraints and opportunities open to Canada in the light of its economy, its federalist political structure, and place in the world as a middle power, as well as its geographic situation, natural resources and environmental endowment. There is a detailed discussion of the Kyoto

  13. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  14. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  15. Political motives in climate and energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruvoll, Annegrete; Dalen, Hanne Marit; Larsen, Bodil M.

    2012-07-01

    Standard economic theory provides clear guidance on the design of cost-efficient policy in the presence of imperfect markets and externalities. However, observed policies reveal extensive discrepancies between principles and practise. Based on interviews with core politicians from the Norwegian parliament, we investigate causes for the lack of cost efficiency in climate and energy policy. We find that politicians agree with the notion of cost efficiency in principle, but rather than ascribing efficient instruments directed at specific policy goals, they include concerns for industrial and regional development, income distribution and employment in the environmental policy design. Lacking insight in the functioning of economic instruments and perceptions of a non-binding budget constraint also violate the requirements for efficient policy decisions. The findings point to the role of economists and social scientists to communicate the functioning of complex instruments. Improved compensation procedures could help reduce the politicians' incentives to undermine efficiency in order to avoid unwanted distributional effects.(Author)

  16. Informing climate policy given incommensurable benefits estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Underlying individual positions in debates over climate policy are assessments of benefit and costs - sometimes explicit, but more often implicit. What should we be willing to pay in the near term to reduce human emissions, given our understanding of the value of climate impacts avoided? What actions are justified now to ease adaptation to change that may come in any event? Such assessments may reflect the viewpoint of one nation, a group like Annex B, or the sum of all nations. They may incorporate uncertainty in different ways, and include different assumptions about future behavior as it influences the marginal benefit of action today. But, however done, any recommendation of a limit on human influence in the long term, or of the level of current effort, implies a weighing-up of the benefits expected, for comparison with the costs to be borne. An ability to communicate about perceived benefits thus is essential for authorities seeking a common response to the threat of human-caused change. They need some shared conception of what is at stake in the choice of one level of effort or another, and a common terminology for incorporating these considerations into international negotiations and domestic decision-making. The frustration of OECD governments with the current state of benefit information is revealed in the ambitious set of objectives set for this benefits project (OECD, 2002). They seek recommendations on how to develop a framework to assess not only the costs but the benefits of climate strategies, to improve the accounting for benefits to facilitate goal-setting for international policies. Besides this focus on global benefits, the OECD also looks for results that are relevant to national policy-making and to the development of adaptation strategies. Particular attention is asked to problems of accounting for non-market benefits, along with the intersection of climate policy with developing country issues. It is appropriate that the OECD seeks a

  17. Uncertain climate policy and the green paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Smulders, Sjak A.; Tsur, Y.; Zemel, A.

    2010-01-01

    Unintended consequences of announcing a climate policy well in advance of its implementation have been studied in a variety of situations. We show that a phenomenon akin to the so-called “Green- Paradox” holds also when the policy implementation date is uncertain. Governments are compelled, by international and domestic pressure, to demonstrate an intention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Taking actual steps, such as imposing a carbon tax on fossil energy, is a different matter altogether...

  18. Climate and Energy Policy in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Csete

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The energy problem has been redefined as one of the most important elements of sustainable development by climate change, adaptation and mitigation. Meeting energy needs is always a current issue in Hungary, irrespective of climate change because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, limited opportunities to replace them with domestic production, and the pollution associated with using fossil energy sources. Increasing effectiveness and saving energy can provide relatively short-term solutions with bearable costs and a relatively quick return on investment. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview about the climate and energy policy in Hungary with a special focus on the new energy strategy. Energy policy has a pivotal role in the economic recovery plan of the Hungarian government. The National Energy Strategy 2030 taking shape in Hungary takes climate policy into account with respect to adaptation and mitigation and lists renewable energy sources as the second most important tool for achieving strategic goals. As in most countries, it is also possible in Hungary to introduce climate strategy measures with zero social costs. The expedient management of climate change requires the combination of prevention, adaptation and dissemination initiatives. Strategies must meet a dual requirement: they must face the economic risks associated with premature measures, while also considering the adverse effects of delay.

  19. Perspectives on international climate policy

    OpenAIRE

    Ford, Melanie; Matysek, Anna; Jakeman, Guy; Gurney, Andrew; Fisher, Brian S.

    2006-01-01

    Current international frameworks including the Kyoto Protocol and the recently agreed Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate are examined in this paper along with their capacity to mitigate emissions growth. The Partnership shows potential to reduce growth in greenhouse gas emissions by stimulating the enhanced development and uptake of cleaner, more efficient technologies. However, decoupling of economic growth from energy consumption via the uptake of very advanced techno...

  20. New Levels of Climate Adaptation Policy: Analyzing the Institutional Interplay in the Baltic Sea Region

    OpenAIRE

    Sirkku Juhola; Erik Glaas

    2013-01-01

    International policy development and expected climate change impacts such as flooding, landslides, and the extinction of sensitive species have forced countries around the Baltic Sea to begin working on national climate adaptation policies. Simultaneously, the EU is building both a central and a macro-regional Baltic Sea-wide adaptation strategy to support national policy developments. However, it yet remains unclear how these EU strategies will complement each other or national policies. Thi...

  1. Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto, V.M.; Löschel, A.; Reilly, J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward-looking CGE model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find the cost-effe

  2. Energy security and climate policy. Assessing interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-03-28

    World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising. This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly. The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The 'indicators' are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.

  3. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Morrow

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1 the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2 the context within which the policy was developed; 3 the relevant processes; and 4 the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should

  4. Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that the economic growth seen in recent decades will continue has dominated the discussion of future greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Given that long-term economic growth is uncertain, the impacts of a wide range of growth trajectories should be considered. In particular, slower economic growth would imply that future generations will be relatively less able to invest in emissions controls or adapt to the detrimental impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the possibility of economic slowdown therefore heightens the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions now by moving to renewable energy sources, even if this incurs short-term economic cost. I quantify this counterintuitive impact of economic growth assumptions on present-day policy decisions in a simple global economy-climate model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE. In DICE, slow future growth increases the economically optimal present-day carbon tax rate and the utility of taxing carbon emissions, although the magnitude of the increase is sensitive to model parameters, including the rate of social time preference and the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. Future scenario development should specifically include low-growth scenarios, and the possibility of low-growth economic trajectories should be taken into account in climate policy analyses.

  5. Transport policies related to climate change mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Kappel, Jannik

    and their results are introduced as well. To provide an overview of current trends, related scientific projects and other analyses on climate change mitigation and transport are given in the report. The references used in this report can also serve as a source of data and inspiration for the reader. This report......This report presents the Danish national policies on reducing the emissions of greenhouse gasses and reducing Denmark’s dependency on fossil fuels in the transport sector, as well as some of the results of the policies. Systematic focus on efficient transport and climate mitigation started in 2008...... and 2009 with a change – not only in the wording and in the political visions – but also in the actual prioritisation of investments and policies to a very large extent. In March 2012 another milestone was set by the Government, to have Denmark based on 100% renewable energy in 2050. This entails large...

  6. Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hwang, I.C.; Reynès, F.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty plays a significant role in evaluating climate policy, and fat-tailed uncertainty may dominate policy advice. Should we make our utmost effort to prevent the arbitrarily large impacts of climate change under deep uncertainty? In order to answer to this question, we propose a new way of i

  7. Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Hurlbert; J. Gupta

    2016-01-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to clima

  8. CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets : Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Méjean, Aurélie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine; Wada, Kenichi; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use

  9. Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

  10. Climate change and energy security: an analysis of policy research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Marcus Dubois [George Washington University; Gulledge, Jay [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    The literature on climate change's impacts on energy security is scattered across disparate fields of research and schools of thought. Much of this literature has been produced outside of the academy by scholars and practitioners working in "think tanks," government agencies, and international/multilateral institutions. Here we reviewed a selected set of 58 articles and reports primarily from such sources and performed textual analysis of the arguments. Our review of this literature identifies three potential mechanisms for linking climate change and energy security: Climate change may 1) create second-order effects that may exacerbate social instability and disrupt energy systems; 2) directly impact energy supply and/or systems or 3) influence energy security through the effects of climate-related policies. We identify emerging risks to energy security driven by climate mitigation tech-nology choices but find less evidence of climate change's direct physical impacts. We used both empirical and qualitative selection factors for choosing the grey literature sample. The sources we selected were published in the last 5 years, available through electronic media and were written in language accessible to general policy or academic readers. The organi-zations that published the literature had performed previous research in the general fields of energy and/or climate change with some analytical content and identified themselves as non-partisan. This literature is particularly valuable to scholars because identifies understudied relationships that can be rigorously assessed through academic tools and methodologies and informs a translational research agenda that will allow scholars to engage with practitioners to address challenges that lie at the nexus of climate change and energy security.

  11. Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 oC since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 oC temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 oC). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing

  12. Economic and policy issues in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

  13. Fat Tails, Thin Tails, and Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck

    2012-01-01

    Climate policy is complicated by the considerable uncertainties concerning the benefits and costs of abatement. We do not even know the probability distributions for future temperatures and impacts, making benefit–cost analysis based on expected values challenging to say the least. There are good reasons to believe that those probability distributions are fat-tailed, which implies that if social welfare is based on the expectation of a constant relative risk aversion utility function, then we...

  14. Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

  15. Modelling the effect of UK energy policy and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ronald Wai Ho

    The central aim of this thesis is to investigate various UK energy policy documents and identify how they are implanted to the main energy consuming sectors in order to achieve a reduction of 60 percent of carbon emissions by 2050. This has lead to two key questions: What are the pros and cons of the various UK energy policy documents What are the impacts of currently proposed environmental policies in UK on economic growth in the 21st century To answer these questions, the following four energy policy documents are reviewed. UK Energy White Paper Energy Efficiency Commitment Climate Change Levy and UK Emissions Trading Scheme Renewable Obligations Also, the following macro energy modelling work is also investigated: Markal Model E3ME The UK Energy White Paper has shown the government is being very eager to solve the climate change and its associated problems by reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 60 percent by 2050. The four documents have illustrated the UK government main strategies to tackle climate change they are based on developing new technology, improving energy efficiency and to increase the use of renewables considerably. The analysis of these policies and macro-scale model has forecasted that the UK is going to have a slow down economic growth due to the environmental pressure.

  16. Does climate policy lead to relocation with adverse effects for GHG emissions or not? A first assessment of the spillovers of climate policy for energy intensive industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy-intensive industries play a special role in climate policy. World-wide, industry is responsible for about 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. The emission intensity makes these industries an important target for climate policy. At the same time these industries are particularly vulnerable if climate policy would lead to higher energy costs, and if they would be unable to offset these increased costs. The side effects of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries are typically referred to as 'spillovers'. Negative spillovers reduce the effectiveness of a climate policy, while positive spillovers increase its effectiveness. This paper provides a review of the literature on the spillover effects of climate policy for carbon intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased share of non-Annex 1 countries. However, this trend is primarily driven by demand growth, and there is no empirical evidence for a role of environmental policy in these development patterns. In contrast, climate models do show a strong carbon leakage of emissions from these industries. Even though that climate policy may have a more profound impact than previous environmental policies, the results of the modelling are ambiguous. The energy and carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries is rapidly declining in most developing countries, and reducing the 'gap' between industrialized and developing countries. Still, considerable potential for emission reduction exists, both in developing and industrialized countries. Technology development is likely to deliver further reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions. Despite the potential for positive spillovers in the energy-intensive industries, none of the models used in the analysis of spillovers of climate policies has an endogenous representation of technological change for the energy-intensive industries. This underlines the need for a better understanding of

  17. Climate Policy Must Favour Mitigation Over Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    SCHUMACHER, Ingmar

    2016-01-01

    In climate change policy, adaptation tends to be viewed as beingas important as mitigation. In this article we present a simple yet generalargument for which mitigation must be preferred to adaptation.The argument rests on the observation that mitigation is a public goodwhile adaptation is a private one. This implies that the more one disaggregatesthe units in a social welfare function, i.e. the more one teasesout the public good nature of mitigation, the lower is average incomeand thus less ...

  18. Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Simon [London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) (United Kingdom); Asheim, Geir B. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Economics

    2011-08-15

    Empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism (DU). DU is controversial, both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for climate policies, where the discounting of future utility gains from present abatement efforts makes it harder for such measures to justify their present costs. In this paper, we propose sustainable discounted utilitarianism (SDU) as an alternative principle for evaluation of climate policy. Unlike undiscounted utilitarianism, which always assigns zero relative weight to present utility, SDU is an axiomatically based criterion, which departs from DU by assigning zero weight to present utility if and only if the present is better off than the future. Using the DICE integrated assessment model to run risk analysis, we show that it is possible for the future to be worse off than the present along a 'business as usual' development path. Consequently SDU and DU differ, and willingness to pay for emissions reductions is (sometimes significantly) higher under SDU than under DU. Under SDU, stringent schedules of emissions reductions increase social welfare, even for a relatively high utility discount rate. (orig.)

  19. Agreeing to disagree on climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heal, Geoffrey M; Millner, Antony

    2014-03-11

    Disagreements about the value of the utility discount rate--the rate at which our concern for the welfare of future people declines with their distance from us in time--are at the heart of the debate about the appropriate intensity of climate policy. Seemingly small differences in the discount rate yield very different policy prescriptions, and no consensus "correct" value has been identified. We argue that the choice of discount rate is an ethical primitive: there are many different legitimate opinions as to its value, and none should receive a privileged place in economic analysis of climate policy. Rather, we advocate a social choice-based approach in which a diverse set of individual discount rates is aggregated into a "representative" rate. We show that performing this aggregation efficiently leads to a time-dependent discount rate that declines monotonically to the lowest rate in the population. We apply this discounting scheme to calculations of the social cost of carbon recently performed by the US government and show that it provides an attractive compromise between competing ethical positions, and thus provides a possible resolution to the ethical impasse in climate change economics. PMID:24567383

  20. What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often the first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible market adjustments between demand regions through market effects are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal market: the “COALMOD-World” model. This equilibrium model computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting policy and a fast-roll out of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness of climate policies. - Highlights: ► Interactions between climate policy and the global coal market until 2030 modeled. ► Analysis with the numerical model: “COALMOD-World”. ► Unilateral European climate policy partly compensated by market adjustment effects. ► A fast roll-out of CCS can lead to positive market adjustment effects. ► An export restricting supply-side policy generates virtuous market adjustments.

  1. Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Clarke, Leon E. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Kyle, G. Page [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Davies, Evan [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Wise, Marshall A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved

  2. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  3. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global

  4. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-F. Schleussner

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Currently, two such levels are discussed in the context of the international climate negotiations as long-term global temperature goals: a below 2 °C and a 1.5 °C limit in global-mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive assessment of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and several hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 % longer to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in

  5. Business and climate change: Key strategic and policy challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Ans Kolk; Jonatan Pinkse

    2010-01-01

    Many companies, policymakers and other stakeholders see climate change as the most pressing environmental problem of our time. In bailout plans and policies to address the economic recession and credit crisis, climate aspects haves figured prominently as well. This article examines recent policy and economic developments and their relevance for business and climate change, considering the implications of the economic slowdown and bailouts. Dilemmas in the economy-climate-policy nexus in the c...

  6. Economic Doctrines and Approaches to Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Atkinson, Robert D.; Hackler, Darrene

    2010-01-01

    In climate change, as in all policy issues, economic philosophy has a significant influence on how people view both the problems and the solutions. For the first time, ITIF surveys four dominant schools of economic thought and analyzes how adherents approach policy options for climate change and energy policy. With climate change and major energy legislation stalled, maybe it is time to put aside fixed philosophical notions and take a practical look on ways to address climate change in an eco...

  7. Climate change: Moving from scientific to institutional and policy questions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The issue of how societies, through their policies and institutional arrangements, can most effectively respond to climate change, is discussed. Four characteristics contributing to the continued failure to resolve the issue are an enormous uncertainty in every part of the problem; the long time scale of effects, ensuring that a modest amount of discounting reduces the present day cost of any future environmental impact that is less than catastrophic to minor proportions; a belief that trying to avert climate change will be very expensive no matter how it is done; and the global nature of the issues calls for an unprecedented amount of international cooperation. Strategies to deal with climate change may be grouped into three categories: preventative, curative and adaptive. The preventative or adjustment strategy involves the restriction or reduction of activities that contribute to carbon dioxide emissions. Under this approach there would be no new fossil fuel plants constructed, and some existing plants might be closed. The curative strategy focuses on addressing the carbon dioxide concentrations being produced and concentrates on neutralizing them. The adaptive or adaptation strategy assumes that carbon dioxide concentrations will continue to build and that society will eventually develop means to cope with the climatic alteration. To assist policy makers, those conducting research need to devote more effort to examining the interrelationships among climate change and other societal concerns, the aspects of uncertainty and surprise, and the range of strategies. 21 refs

  8. Policy means of control in the climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Using the MARKAL simulation tool, different economic incentives in climate mitigation policy such as tradable emission permits, green certificates and carbon dioxide taxes have been analyzed. The analysis shows that there is an important advantage in applying the emission reductions internationally compared to a national policy, due to the varying marginal costs for the measures in different countries. The analysis also reveals at which price levels the Nordic countries as a whole become net sellers or net buyers of emission permits. The effects of combining emission permits with green certificates are analyzed, e.g. the inverse relation between permit and certificate prices. An appendix to the report gives a description of the Swedish energy system, emissions world-wide and examples of cost-effective mitigation measures for Sweden

  9. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for

  10. Economy of climatic change. From mitigation to adaptation policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change adaptation policies are the subject of this thesis. It has been showed that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the response strategies construction are characteristic of a pollutionist approach. This approach led to envision the question of climate change as a classic pollution and environment issue. As a result, this approach has generated a double bias to the disadvantage of adaptation compared to mitigation policies: adaptation has been confined in a secondary and marginal role in climate policies structuring, and with an inoperative conceptual and methodological framework for its implementation. The thesis proposes a deconstruction of this climate change conceptualization. Moreover, the major limits that characterize mitigation policies call into question the predominance given to them in climate policies construction. The 'pollutionist' approach deconstruction allows at first to show that adaptation policies definition and operationalization need to go beyond (i) the standard analytic framework of climate policies and, (ii) the climate change conceptualization as a classic pollution and environment management issue. The thesis then argues that adaptation has to be integrated in development promoting policies, which means that adaptation needs to be conceptualized no longer as an ad hoc management of pollution effects issue, but as a development issue. Whether in the proper context of adaptation policies, or more largely of climate policies, the thesis leaves open the questions of the viability, but also of the organization and financing modalities, of a climate regime which fits within development promoting. (author)

  11. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft;

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation...

  12. National Climate Change Policies and Sustainable Water Management: Conflicts and Synergies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie Pittock

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Even in the absence of climate change, freshwater ecosystems and the resources they provide for people are under great pressure because of increasing demand for water and declines in water quality. The imminent onset of climate change will exacerbate these impacts, placing even greater pressure on already stressed resources and regions. A plethora of national climate change policies have been adopted that emphasize structural adjustment in the energy sector and increasing carbon sinks. To date, most public debate on water has focused on the direct impacts of climate change on hydrology. However, there is growing evidence that climate change policies themselves may have substantial additional and negative impacts on freshwater resources and ecosystems and may thus result in maladaptation. To avoid such maladaptation, integrated, coordinated policy making is required. In this paper, national climate change policies from Australia, Brazil, China, the European Union (EU, India, Mexico, South Africa, Tanzania, and the United Kingdom are compared to: (i identify where negative trade-offs exist between climate change policies and freshwater resources, (ii analyze where institutions and structures exist to optimize integration among climate, water, and biodiversity policies, and (iii provide a much needed overview from a broad selection of countries with a view to identifying further opportunities for theoretical exploration and testing. The synergies and conflicts among climate, energy, water, and environmental policies create additional challenges for governments to develop integrated policies to deliver multiple benefits. Success factors for better policy development identified in this assessment and synthesis include engagement of senior political leaders, cyclical policy development, multi-agency and stakeholder processes, and stronger accountability and enforcement measures.

  13. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination-the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change

  14. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Klaus [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Robinson, Alexander [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Bradford, David F [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Oppenheimer, Michael [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States)

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO{sub 2} emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO{sub 2} emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO{sub 2} abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination-the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  15. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Klaus; Robinson, Alexander; Bradford, David F.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination—the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  16. Japan after the Quake: Prospects for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luta, Alexandru

    2011-07-01

    The triple calamity of 11 March 2011 has dealt a serious blow domestically to the credibility of the Japanese nuclear industry, putting the country's energy policy in flux.The severe impact on the country's infrastructure, the unwieldiness of its bureaucracy and the chaotic political situation preclude Japan's energy policy from explicitly re-orientating itself before the middle of 2012, but political consensus seems to be emerging that the country's mid-term pledge on emission reductions will need to be curtailed.The bill on renewable energy passed under Prime Minister Kan marked a step in the right direction, but was shallow and politically opportunistic. Its future impact on policy is uncertain.With other policy instruments on climate proposed by the Democratic Party of Japan toothless or abandoned, Tokyo's ability to engage in significant mitigation activities domestically is in question.Opposition to a second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol remains firm; Japan will continue to pursue bilateral mechanisms outside the UNFCCC framework.Given its frail domestic policy and a stated readiness to act internationally outside multilateral frameworks, Japan's promise to carry out significant mitigation activities even in the absence of a clear and comprehensive post-2012 legal instrument should be viewed with a critical eye.(Author)

  17. The role of social norms on preferences towards climate change policies: A meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present study provides a review of existing assessments of preferences for climate change mitigation and adaptation policies through a worldwide meta-analysis. In this study, we analyze the impact of social values and norms on preferences towards climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. In a sample of 58 international studies, we found that mitigation actions were preferred over adaptation actions, and that preferences towards climate change policies are affected by attitudes towards time and social norms. In particular, societies with a long-term orientation display greater support towards climate change policies. These results therefore reveal the role of social factors as being crucial in order to understand the acceptability of climate change policies at a worldwide level. - highlights: • Effective policy design is required in order to curb climate change. • Using a meta-analysis, we find that mitigation actions are preferred over adaptation actions. • Economic conditions play a crucial role for supporting efforts to combat climate change. • Cultural and social dimensions are relevant for the acceptability of climate policies. • Understanding social norms and cultural variables may help with the climate change debate

  18. Policy integration, coherence and governance in Dutch climate policy : a multi-level analysis of mitigation and adoption policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bommel, van S.; Kuindersma, W.

    2008-01-01

    This report assesses the integration of climate policy in Dutch public policy at the national, regional, local and area level. The national analysis focuses on the horizontal integration of climate policy in national government programmes, adaptation and mitigation strategies and specific policy ins

  19. Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

    2016-01-01

    Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents’ attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals’ demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several “upstream” climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies. PMID:26729883

  20. Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture : Refocusing Impact Assessments to 2050

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2010-01-01

    This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet nat...

  1. Climatic Impact of Volcanic Eruptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory A. Zielinski

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions have the potential to force global climate, provided they are explosive enough to emit at least 1–5 megaton of sulfur gases into the stratosphere. The sulfuric acid produced during oxidation of these gases will both absorb and reflect incoming solar radiation, thus warming the stratosphere and cooling the Earth’s surface. Maximum global cooling on the order of 0.2–0.3°C, using instrumental temperature records, occurs in the first 2 years after the eruption, with lesser cooling possibly up to the 4th year. Equatorial eruptions are able to affect global climate, whereas mid- to high-latitude events will impact the hemisphere of origin. However, regional responses may differ, including the possibility of winter warming following certain eruptions. Also, El Niño warming may override the cooling induced by volcanic activity. Evaluation of different style eruptions as well as of multiple eruptions closely spaced in time beyond the instrumental record is attained through the analysis of ice-core, tree-ring, and geologic records. Using these data in conjunction with climate proxy data indicates that multiple eruptions may force climate on decadal time scales, as appears to have occurred during the Little Ice Age (i.e., roughly AD 1400s–1800s. The Toba mega-eruption of ~75,000 years ago may have injected extremely large amounts of material into the stratosphere that remained aloft for up to about 7 years. This scenario could lead to the initiation of feedback mechanisms within the climate system, such as cooling of sea-surface temperatures. These interacting mechanisms following a mega-eruption may cool climate on centennial time scales.

  2. Architecture of the Kyoto Protocol and Prospects for Public Climate Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.H. Wijen (Frank); K. Zoeteman

    2005-01-01

    textabstractOptions for government’s future climate policy are discussed as a function of the architecture of the present regime; the latter is anchored in the Kyoto Protocol, which is aimed at reducing the human impact on climate change. We describe the basic tenets of this agreement, and explain h

  3. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaption policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.; de Jong, A.; van Bree, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type

  4. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

    2015-04-14

    Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

  5. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  6. Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

  7. EU CLIMATE POLICY FROM KYOTO TO DURBAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ELENA ANDREEVSKA

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The risks posed by climate change are real and its impacts are already taking place. The biggest challenge about climate change is that there is no one single answer, no one single solution. This characteristic, together with the long history of political frictions and disputes worsened by environmental stresses suggests that global climatic changes have the potential to exacerbate existing international tensions. On December 31, 2012, the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period will expire. Unless states agree to a second commitment period, requiring a further round of emissions cuts, the Protocol will no longer impose any quantitative limits on states' greenhouse gas emissions. Although, as a legal matter, the Protocol will continue in force, it will be a largely empty shell, doing little if anything to curb global warming. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, which focused exclusively on developed country emissions, the ongoing negotiations on a post-2012 climate change regime have also addressed developing country mitigation actions, without which a solution to the climate change problem is impossible. This has made the current negotiations as much between developed and developing countries as between the U.S. and the European Union. Key issues include: Legal Form; Regulatory approach; and Differentiation. By the Durban conference in December 2011 the EU needs to decide whether - and how - it will sign-up to a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. This article focuses on the European Union needs to decide whether – and – how it will sign- up a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. Because asking, whether others will act is the wrong question. The real question is whether signing- up to some form of second Kyoto commitment period will support Europe’s fundamental interests.

  8. Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Thomas; Spit, Tejo

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these

  9. Implementing European climate adaptation policy : How local policymakers react to european policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Thomas; Spit, Tejo

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these

  10. Chinese Climate Policy - Institutions and Intent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    . Not surprisingly, institutions and practices continue to reflect millennia of Chinese history, which in some measure focused on nurturing the authority of an emperor. Students of China, who have long recognized its 'command and control' economy, are now aware of the limits of those concepts and the consequences of a bureaucratic hierarchy living in a sometimes conflicted condominium with the Communist Party, even as the economy surges on. The second study seeks to answer the questions: What are the economic and strategic drivers of Chinese energy policy? How does China plan to manage its increasing reliance on foreign sources of oil, gas and now coal? How will these drivers shape the guiding principles of Chinese national companies and their relations with international operators and foreign sources of energy resources? How does China define and shape its international diplomacy and practices in order to succeed in its quest to secure access to upstream oil, gas, coal and uranium - just to mention the fuels? The third study explores the Chinese approach to climate change. The Chinese have long been victims of their own internal deserts and know only too well the challenges that the power of nature imposes on their society. The recent spectacular growth of the Chinese economy has left China with a plethora of weeping environmental wounds. While these are increasingly urgent short-term challenges, Chinese leaders are only too aware that, in the longer term, under any probable climate change scenario, China is a loser

  11. Chinese Climate Policy - Institutions and Intent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques [Institut Francais des Relations Internationales - Ifri, 27 rue de la Procession, 75740 Paris Cedex 15 (France); Andrews-Speed, Philip [Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee, Scotland (United Kingdom); Yishan, Xia; Dezhao, Chen [China Institute of International Studies (China)

    2011-06-15

    's energy sector. Not surprisingly, institutions and practices continue to reflect millennia of Chinese history, which in some measure focused on nurturing the authority of an emperor. Students of China, who have long recognized its 'command and control' economy, are now aware of the limits of those concepts and the consequences of a bureaucratic hierarchy living in a sometimes conflicted condominium with the Communist Party, even as the economy surges on. The second study seeks to answer the questions: What are the economic and strategic drivers of Chinese energy policy? How does China plan to manage its increasing reliance on foreign sources of oil, gas and now coal? How will these drivers shape the guiding principles of Chinese national companies and their relations with international operators and foreign sources of energy resources? How does China define and shape its international diplomacy and practices in order to succeed in its quest to secure access to upstream oil, gas, coal and uranium - just to mention the fuels? The third study explores the Chinese approach to climate change. The Chinese have long been victims of their own internal deserts and know only too well the challenges that the power of nature imposes on their society. The recent spectacular growth of the Chinese economy has left China with a plethora of weeping environmental wounds. While these are increasingly urgent short-term challenges, Chinese leaders are only too aware that, in the longer term, under any probable climate change scenario, China is a loser

  12. EU Climate Policy Tracker 2011. Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoehne, N.; Geurts, F.; Teckenburg, E.; Blok, K.; Becker, D. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    Limiting the rise in the average global temperature to 2C has been the EU goal since 1996, and in December 2010 the UN recognised the need to consider a 1.5C limit. Avoiding overshooting these levels will require massive emissions reductions - in the order of 80-95% for industrialised countries, like those in the EU. The next ten years are crucial in establishing whether society will be able to make this transition, or whether temperature increase limits will be irreversibly missed. Last year, the European Union Climate Policy Tracker (EU CPT) investigated each member state's implementation of policy and legislation, and rated their progress towards a 2050 vision of deep decarbonisation using renewable energy. The uniquely developed rating scheme, modelled on appliance efficiency labels (A-G), gave an indication of how member states were doing compared to a 'low-carbon policy package'. The average score was an 'E', indicating that the level of effort needed to treble, to be on a pace to reach the 2050 vision. However, aggregating best practices across sectors and countries doubled the score - meaning that the tools are already at hand for major improvements across Europe. This report builds on last year's EU CPT by giving an update on action in member states, and an indicative trend in the rating, as well as adding a new section on EU policy. The addition of an EU section is appropriate, with the Commission having produced a roadmap on a low-carbon economy by 2050, a transport white paper, and with another roadmap for 2050 focused on energy anticipated by the end of 2011. This report seeks to answer the question of whether these and other related initiatives are sufficient to help Europe reach its low-carbon goals. When interpreting the results of this report, it is important to understand that the goal underlying the vision here is not the same as the one in the European Commission's 'low-carbon economy' roadmap

  13. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  14. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison M.; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russ; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, Jim; Strzepek, K.; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  15. Interaction of the EU emissions Trading Directive with climate policy instrument in the Netherlands. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This policy brief presents an overview of the implications of the proposed EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for some selected energy and climate policy instruments in the Netherlands. It summarises the results of research that has been conducted by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) as part of the EU-funded project Interaction in EU Climate Policy

  16. Competitiveness and carbon leakages in industry under asymmetric climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This research aims at studying how to predict competitiveness loss for an industry submitted to an asymmetric carbon constraint, and carbon leakages, whether high losses and important leakages might be feared, and which policies can be used to mitigate these losses and escapes. The author analyses and comments the content of four articles dealing with: the impact on competitiveness, revenue distribution and economic efficiency of a change in the allocation rules for EU greenhouse gas allowances; the relationship between allocation of CO2 allowances and competitiveness in the case of the European iron and steel industry; CO2 abatement, competitiveness and leakage in the European cement industry under EU ETS; and leakage from climate policies and border tax adjustment (lessons from a geographic model of the cement industry). Then, the author combines several approaches to study the cement and steel industries

  17. Impact of Climatic Variations on Storage Reservoir Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Z. Kaczmarek

    1990-01-01

    Within IIASA's Enironment Program, one of the objectives of the Water Resources Project is to investigate the impact of environmental and economic changes on water resources management. The climate/water resources problem raises a number of scientific questions that must be addressed to answer policy needs reflecting potential effects of global climatic change on regional water management, and possible adaptive measures that could be taken. Historically water resource systems have been design...

  18. Climate Stability and Policy: A Synthesis

    CERN Document Server

    Marsh, Gerald E

    2008-01-01

    During most of the Phanerozoic eon, which began about a half-billion years ago, there were few glacial intervals until the late Pliocene 2.75 million years ago. Beginning at that time, the Earth's climate entered a period of instability with the onset of cyclical ice ages. At first these had a 41,000 year cycle, and about 1 million years ago the period lengthened to 100,000 years, which has continued to the present. Over this period of instability the climate has been extraordinarily sensitive to small forcings, whether due to Milankovitch cycles, solar variations, aerosols, or albedo variations driven by cosmic rays. The current interglacial has lasted for some ten thousand years-about the duration of past interglacials-and serious policy considerations arise as it nears its likely end. It is extremely unlikely that the current rise in carbon dioxide concentration-some 30% since 1750, and projected further increase over the next few decades-will significantly postpone the next glaciation.

  19. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  20. Economic theory and climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Our willingness to embrace climate change policies depends on our perception of their benefits and costs. Evaluation of these costs and benefits requires careful economic analysis. Yet the standard tools for such assessment - computable general equilibrium (CGE) models - are inadequate on several grounds. Their underlying theory suffers from well-known logical difficulties; in general, their equilibria may be neither unique, stable, nor efficient. Moreover, real-world phenomena such as increasing returns to scale, learning, and technological innovation are neglected in CGE models. These phenomena make the resulting equilibria in the models inefficient; in the real world they can lock society into sub-optimal technology choices. They introduce uncertainty and path-dependence, annihilating the concept of a single efficient allocation produced by the unfettered market. Yet conventional economics assesses the cost of policies solely on the basis of their departure from a purportedly efficient equilibrium - ignoring deeper structural changes that are often decisive in practice. New socioeconomic theories and models are emerging that allow for bounded rationality, the limiting and enabling character of institutions, technological change, and the complexities and uncertainties in economic evolution. Meanwhile, existing models should be modified to better reflect real-world phenomena and to abandon unfounded assumptions about the inherent ''inefficiencies'' of government intervention in the market. (author)

  1. Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.

    1991-01-01

    Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

  2. National Climate Change Policies and Sustainable Water Management: Conflicts and Synergies

    OpenAIRE

    Jamie Pittock

    2011-01-01

    Even in the absence of climate change, freshwater ecosystems and the resources they provide for people are under great pressure because of increasing demand for water and declines in water quality. The imminent onset of climate change will exacerbate these impacts, placing even greater pressure on already stressed resources and regions. A plethora of national climate change policies have been adopted that emphasize structural adjustment in the energy sector and increasing carbon sinks. To dat...

  3. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H.; Bassett, Hannah R.

    2015-11-01

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society’s diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.

  4. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions. PMID:26564848

  5. Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate policy and renewable energy policy instruments. It shows that, even where CO2 emissions are duly priced, specific incentives for supporting the early deployment of renewable energy technologies are justified by the steep learning curves of nascent technologies. This early investment reduces costs in the longer term and makes renewable energy affordable when it needs to be deployed on a very large scale to fully contribute to climate change mitigation and energy security. The paper also reveals other noteworthy interaction effects of climate policy and renewable policy instruments on the wholesale electricity prices in deregulated markets, which open new areas for future research.

  6. Potential impacts of climate change on Manitoba Hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of Manitoba Hydro's system was presented during this PowerPoint presentation which focused on significant climate trends, the potential impacts of climate change and climate change initiatives at Manitoba Hydro compared to other utilities. Ninety-five per cent of the electricity generated in Manitoba comes from hydroelectricity from the Churchill/Nelson River drainage basin. Twelve existing generating stations in the province contribute to the total installed generating capacity of 5500 MW, of which 300 MW is exported to Saskatchewan, 200 MW to Ontario and 2000 MW to the United States. Significant climate trends indicate that temperatures are increasing and there is a greater incidence of extreme weather events which can affect water supply. Manitoba Hydro must plan future resource needs and estimate climate change impacts on future projects. The potential negative impacts of climate change include an impact on water supply as well as an impact on the balance of energy supply and demand. The potential positive impacts of climate change include increased river flows in some regions resulting in higher water supplies. This presentation also outlined emission management initiatives at Manitoba Hydro with reference to policy issues for Kyoto ratification, export rates with environmental premiums, domestic emission trading, and demand-side management. Targeted measures such as wind power, landfill gas and hydrogen were also outlined. 10 figs

  7. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  8. Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Schlickenrieder, Jeremy; Quiroga Gomez, Sonia; Diz, Agustin; Iglesias Picazo, Ana

    2011-01-01

    In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity ...

  9. Combating complexity: the integration of EU climate and energy policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radostina Primova

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we analyse EU energy policy from the perspective of the EU’s long-term commitments to combat climate change. We focus on the policy integration of climate concerns – ‘climate policy integration’ (CPI. We seek to answer the question: what is the extent of CPI in energy policy, and what factors can explain this level of CPI? After outlining a conceptualisation of CPI that argues for applying a principled priority standard for the assessment of the level of integration of climate policy objectives in other policy sectors, we apply an analytical framework, with factors derived from general theories of European integration and literature on environmental policy integration, to explain the strength of CPI in two sub-energy sector case studies – renewable energy policies and internal energy market policies. CPI is found to be insufficient in both cases, and two factors are highlighted as particularly crucial for furthering CPI: political commitment to CPI, and the strong participation of climate advocates in the policy process. The article suggests that the expansion of EU competence in energy policy does not necessarily provide a guarantee for full and complete CPI.

  10. What is climate change policy now trying to achieve?

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell, David

    2015-01-01

    Almost all advocates of international climate change policy hope and expect that the Climate Change Conference to be held in Paris in November–December 2015 will reach an agreement to reduce global anthropomorphic greenhouse gas emissions. Yet more than 25 years of international climate change policy has failed to reach such an agreement: emissions, far from having been reduced, have greatly increased. In the author’s view, no agreement is likely to be reached in Paris. Anticipating this, Lor...

  11. Policy modes for climate change: the role of tripartite partnerships

    OpenAIRE

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2010-01-01

    This position paper provides an initial overview of the role of tripartite partnerships for climate change in the broader framework of policy options available to address the issue. First, we will position partnerships in relation to other policy modes for climate change, including emissions trading schemes, voluntary agreements and individual corporate self-regulation. Next, partnerships for climate change are explored empirically, considering two existing databases for their tripartite init...

  12. Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Hartmann; Tejo Spit

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these EU networks have on the adaptive capacity in cities. This paper uses two Dutch cities as an empirical base to evaluate the influence of two EU climate adaptation projects on both the experience of ...

  13. Learning to Adapt. Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour

  14. ESCAPE. Energy Security and ClimAte Policy Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and energy supply security policy are currently not integrated in most countries, despite possible synergies. The ESCAPE approach suggests that linking climate change policy with security of energy supply could improve climate change policy at both a national and international level. The report explores the interaction between policies of energy security and climate change and the options of inclusion of energy security issues into national and international post-2012 climate negotiations. It emphasises the importance of the US in this regard and takes a close look at US energy policy documents. It appears that current US energy policy is not directed towards reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuel, even though the government has a strong preference for this. This study shows that measures to reduce import dependency are mostly synergetic with climate policy and gives some options that can be implemented. On an international level, linkages of energy security into post-2012 climate policy may be possible in sectoral bottom-up approaches or technology frameworks. As well, inclusion of a security of supply criterion in international emission trading instruments may provide potential benefits

  15. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  16. Companies and Climate Risk: Opportunities to Engage the Business Community in Promoting Climate-conscious Policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2013-12-01

    Regardless of their policy orientation, the business community has an interest in how climate change impacts will affect their operations and ultimately change their bottom line. The reality that climate change presents material and financial risks to many companies in diverse sectors of the economy presents an opportunity to engage companies on climate-related issues. Company investors are exposed to such financial risks and can pressure public companies to change behavior through shareholder resolutions, voting, and election of new board members. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates all publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business in their annual Form 10-K filings. In 2010, the guidance for the Form 10-K specifically suggested that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change--both from its physical effects and from impacts of climate regulations. Form 10-Ks for 28 US companies were analyzed for the years 2009 and 2010. Results indicate that some companies comprehensively considered climate-related risks. However, in spite of the SEC guidance, some fail to mention climate change at all. Additionally, many companies discuss only the impacts that regulation would have on their business--not the physical effects of climate change itself. The lack of consideration of climate-related risks in companies' risk assessments demonstrates a need for a more uniform understanding of SEC requirements and additionally, this state of affairs presents an opportunity to push companies to more deeply consider climate change impacts. Several avenues are available for engaging with companies themselves, their shareholders, the SEC, and the public. We will explore what strategies have been effective for engaging such actors and what further opportunities exist for working with the business community to promote more climate-conscious policies and practices.

  17. Uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Consequences in the distant future - such as those from climate change--have little value today when discounted using conventional rates. This result contradicts our 'gut feeling' about such problems and often leads to ad hoc application of lower rates for valuations over longer horizons - a step facilitated by confusion and disagreement over the correct rate even over short horizons. We review the theory and intuition behind the choice of discount rates now and, importantly, the impact of likely variation in rates in the future. Correlated changes in future rates imply that the distant future should be discounted at much lower rates than suggested by the current rate, thereby raising the value of future consequences - regardless of opinions concerning the current rate. Using historic data to quantity the likely changes and correlation in changes in future rates, we find that future valuations rise by a factor of many thousands at horizons of 300 years or more, almost doubling the expected present value of climate mitigation benefits relative to constant 4% discounting. Ironically, uncertainty about future rates reduces the ratio of valuations based on alternate choices of the current rate

  18. Policy framework for the management of global climate change issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riedel, D. [Health Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Environmental Health Directorate

    2001-03-01

    Pollution has resulted in a variety of environmental problems which give rise to concerns about the ecosystem and human health. There is a need for collaboration at many levels to address the problems associated with acid rain, smog, ozone-destroying chemicals and the long-range transport of toxic substances. The author noted that the vulnerability of ecosystems and of human population groups must be assessed along with the full range of implications (including costs and benefits) of mitigation and adaptation measures. Health implications are generally difficult to assess because a wide range of information, skills, and databases are required. In addition, there are no standard methods for undertaking the assessment, but the World Health Organization is currently developing guidelines for assessing climate change health impacts. Climate change is determined by natural mechanisms that affect the distribution and intensity of environmental health change risk factors, including insects and chemicals. The Canadian government has drafted a framework entitled The Policy Framework for Managing Global Climate Change Issues. It was developed by external experts and is based on the U.S. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management. The six interactive stages of the framework are to: (1) define the health, socioeconomic, technical and political context and problems and assess the relevance to affected stakeholders, (2) characterize hazards and possible health impacts from environmental change, (3) develop mitigation options based on precautionary and equity principles, (4) assess risk predictions and uncertainties, socioeconomic inputs and public inputs, (5) implement national and international risk management strategies for mitigation and adaptation, and (6) evaluate the progress of actions by monitoring changes in risk through a broad range of indicators of heath. It was also noted that policies and strategies should be revised as needed.

  19. Meat consumption and climate policy; Vleesconsumptie en klimaatbeleid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stehfest, E.; Bouwman, A.F.; Van Vuuren, D.P.; Den Elzen, M.G.J.; Eickhout, B.; Jeuken, M.; Van Oorschot, M. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Kabat, P. [Wageningen Universiteit, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2008-09-15

    Climate mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives little attention, although according to FAO it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of the total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have led to a revision of recommended meat consumption. Here, the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels is explored using a set of theoretical scenarios. By using an integrated assessment model, we found global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food, to have a dramatic effect on land use, with up to 2700 million ha of grassland and 100 million ha of cropland to be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission are reduced substantially. Assuming a global transition to recommended low-meat diets (and not accounting for the cost of this transition), the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilization target would be reduced by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes would thus not only have a substantial impact on global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies. [Dutch] Een mondiale afname van vleesconsumptie kan een behoorlijke bijdrage leveren aan vermindering van broeikasgasemissies. Daardoor kunnen de kosten van klimaatbeleid fors lager uitvallen. Dit blijkt uit een studie van het PBL, waarin de klimaatgevolgen van verschillende scenario's met verminderde vleesconsumptie, waaronder een mondiaal vleesarm dieet dat in vergelijking met de huidige Nederlandse vleesconsumptie een reductie van twee derde zou betekenen.

  20. Climate change and foreign policy : an exploration of options for greater integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is a global challenge and one of biggest challenges of this century. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires new thinking in foreign policy. This paper discussed the results of a research study that examined the role of foreign policy in fostering a more effective international response to the challenge of climate change. The scope involved an examination of instruments relevant to Danish foreign policy. The paper first identified the climate change challenge and discussed international diplomacy and relations. Energy security and investment was discussed in terms of the impact of energy security on climate change efforts and opportunities for integration. Other areas where critical issues and opportunities for integration were offered include international peace and security; trade and investment; and development cooperation. The paper made several recommendations in these areas in addition to diplomatic networking. The study concluded that foreign policy can further the climate change agenda in a number of areas in diplomacy and foreign relations within the European Union, transatlantic relations, Arctic issues and United Nations affairs. This includes better integration of climate change into the European Union's common foreign and security policy, the Lisbon Agenda, and incorporating climate change in the work of a wide range of bodies under the United Nations. refs., figs

  1. Estimating the impacts of climate change on Brazilian regions

    OpenAIRE

    Azzoni, Carlos; Haddad, Eduardo

    2011-01-01

    An integrated approach projects the economic impacts from climate change and adaptation and mitigation policies, explicitly considering the various territorial scales in Brazil (macro-regions, states, micro-regions, and networks of cities). A computable general equilibrium (GCE) model was used to simulate two climate change-free scenarios regarding the future of Brazil’s economy that are consistent with the global economic development trends under IPCC’s scenarios A2 and B2. Climate shock...

  2. Performative vulnerability: climate change adaptation policies and financing in Kiribati

    OpenAIRE

    Sophie Webber

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores some of the perverse effects of climate change adaptation policies and financing in the Republic of Kiribati, a low-lying island nation in the Central Pacific. I examine how encounters between financiers and government officials might produce vulnerability to climate change. I draw throughout from field research conducted in Kiribati, an archetypical ‘vulnerable-to-climate-change’ place, and a preeminent site for experimentation in climate change adaptation. By discussing ...

  3. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  4. Energy policy and climate change in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problem of massive emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the burning of fossil fuels and their climatic impact have become major scientific and political issues. Future stabilization of the atmospheric CO2 content requires a drastic decrease of CO2 emissions worldwide. In this study, energy utilization and its major environmental impacts are discussed from the standpoint of sustainable development, including anticipated patterns of future energy use and subsequent environmental issues in Turkey. Several aspects relating to energy utilization, renewable energy, energy efficiency, environment and sustainable development are examined from both current and future perspectives. Turkey is an energy importing country; with more than half of the energy requirement being supplied by imports. Domestic oil and lignite reserves are limited, and the lignites are characterised by high ash, sulfur and moisture contents. Because of increasing energy consumption, air pollution is becoming a great environmental concern for the future in the country. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development and environmental pollution prevention in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of the renewable energy sources

  5. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety...

  6. The Economic Impact of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    TOL, Richard S.J.

    2008-01-01

    I review the literature on the economic impacts of climate change, an externality that is unprecedentedly large, complex, and uncertain. Only 14 estimates of the total damage cost of climate change have been published, a research effort that is in sharp contrast to the urgency of the public debate and the proposed expenditure on greenhouse gas emission reduction. These estimates show that climate change initially improves economic welfare. However, these benefits are sunk. Impacts would be pr...

  7. Renewable energy and climate policies: Studies in the forest and energy sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kangas, H.-L.

    2012-07-01

    This dissertation examines the impacts of energy and climate policies on the energy and forest sectors, focusing on the case of Finland. The thesis consists of an introduction article and four separate studies. The dissertation was motivated by the climate concern and the increasing demand for renewable energy. In particular, the renewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of the European Union were driving this work. In Finland, both forest and energy sectors are in key roles in achieving these targets. In fact, the separation between forest and energy sector is diminishing as the energy sector is utilizing increasing amounts of wood in energy production and as the forest sector is becoming more and more important energy producer. The objective of this dissertation is to find out and measure the impacts of climate and energy policies on the forest and energy sectors. In climate policy, the focus is on emissions trading, and in energy policy the dissertation focuses on the promotion of renewable forestbased energy use. The dissertation relies on empirical numerical models that are based on microeconomic theory. Numerical partial equilibrium mixed complementarity problem models were constructed to study the markets under scrutiny. The separate studies focus on co-firing of wood biomass and fossil fuels, liquid biofuel production in the pulp and paper industry, and the impacts of climate policy on the pulp and paper sector. The dissertation shows that the policies promoting wood-based energy may have unexpected negative impacts. When feed-in tariff is imposed together with emissions trading, in some plants the production of renewable electricity might decrease as the emissions price increases. The dissertation also shows that in liquid biofuel production, investment subsidy may cause high direct policy costs and other negative impacts when compared to other policy instruments. The results of the dissertation also indicate that from the

  8. Putting climate impact estimates to work: the empirical approach of the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.

    2014-12-01

    studies into a broad characterization of climate impacts across an economy, ensuring that each individual study can contribute to guiding policy priorities on climate change. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org. [2] Hsiang, Burke, and Miguel (2013), Science.

  9. Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m2 of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation

  10. Technology policy for climate change mitigation: a transatlantic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This workshop was the second climate policy conference jointly organized by RFF and IFRI in Paris. (The first one, ''How to Make Progress Post-Kyoto?'', was held on March 19, 2003). This Summary Paper is divided into two parts: The first part presents short summaries of all the presentations at the workshop (rationale and past experience in technology policies, the challenges and policy responses of the climate friendly technologies). The second part, which is an edited version of the closing remarks by Pierre Noel (Ifri), highlights some of the policy lessons that emerged from the workshop. (A.L.B.)

  11. 77 FR 59397 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-27

    ... UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States is in the process of reviewing its economic impact procedures. A draft of the proposed economic impact procedures can be accessed at the following location:...

  12. Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo

  13. Should the EU climate policy framework be reformed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ELLISON

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Though to-date the European Union (EU has played the most significant leadership role in international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, the emission-reducing performance of individual EU Member states has for many been less than stellar. Several EU15 Member states continue to raise rather than lower emissions. Analysing the most successful policy instruments, this paper argues EU policy efforts could benefit from three important innovations. The following strategies – the adoption of an EU-wide FIT (feed-in tariff, an EU-wide carbon tax and more flexibility in the trading of carbon credits – could significantly improve emission reductions, their relative cost-efficiency and spread burden-sharing more evenly across technologies and Member states. This raises important questions, both about the effectiveness of EU and Kyoto-style commitments, as well as the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS. The commitment strategy, and in particular the EU ETS mechanism, have had the smallest impact on emission reductions. The proposed set of strategies could make a far greater contribution to future EU efforts and potentially lock in the impressive progress already made. Such a policy shift, if successful, would also greatly enhance the EU’s already significant credibility and bargaining power in international climate negotiations.

  14. Environmental federalism and US climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Environmental disputes involving states over the proper state and federal roles have grown in number and magnitude over the last several years, with many disputes engaging dozens of states. States with competing views are fully engaged in the ongoing debate over climate change, a textbook case for testing the contours of environmental federalism. The issue has all the necessary components: transboundary environmental impacts; competing state economic and environmental interests; state self-interest; disagreement on first principles including what is the proper role of the states; and a somewhat ill-defined federal role. With those qualities, one would expect the federal government to step in and regulate. Instead, the federal government has declined to regulate, inviting a national discourse on whether and how to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As of Spring 2004, twenty-eight states have launched or are planning initiatives, some of which will directly regulate sources of GHG emissions. As these programs take root, pressure will build for a greater federal role. This paper will advance the position that even with this building momentum, the federal government is not likely to emulate state programs that mandate CO2 emission reductions. In the face of high national cost, uncertain environmental benefits, and a history of federal non-regulatory action, federal regulation at this time appears to be a remote possibility. State efforts to address global climate change add value to the debate, but they do not create the cocoon of consensus the federal government seeks before launching mandatory programs of this magnitude. The more likely scenario is that the federal government will continue on its present course, funding research and development, investing in energy efficient technologies, and supporting voluntary measures. Under this scenario, states and the private sector would continue to function as the 'laboratories' to develop new ideas to improve energy

  15. Globalisation and climate change in Asia: the urban health impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munslow, Barry; O'Dempsey, Tim

    2010-01-01

    Asia's economic development successes will create new policy areas to address, as the advances made through globalisation create greater climate change challenges, particularly the impact on urban health. Poverty eradication and higher standards of living both increase demand on resources. Globalisation increases inequalities and those who are currently the losers will carry the greatest burden of the costs in the form of the negative effects of climate change and the humanitarian crises that will ensue. Of four major climate change challenges affecting the environment and health, two—urban air pollution and waste management—can be mitigated by policy change and technological innovation if sufficient resources are allocated. Because of the urban bias in the development process, these challenges will probably register on policy makers' agenda. The second two major challenges—floods and drought—are less amenable to policy and technological solutions: many humanitarian emergency challenges lie ahead. This article describes the widely varying impact of both globalisation and climate change across Asia. The greatest losers are those who flee one marginal location, the arid inland areas, only to settle in another marginal location in the flood prone coastal slums. Effective preparation is required, and an effective response when subsequent humanitarian crises occur.

  16. Globalisation and climate change in Asia: the urban health impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munslow, Barry; O'Dempsey, Tim

    2010-01-01

    Asia's economic development successes will create new policy areas to address, as the advances made through globalisation create greater climate change challenges, particularly the impact on urban health. Poverty eradication and higher standards of living both increase demand on resources. Globalisation increases inequalities and those who are currently the losers will carry the greatest burden of the costs in the form of the negative effects of climate change and the humanitarian crises that will ensue. Of four major climate change challenges affecting the environment and health, two—urban air pollution and waste management—can be mitigated by policy change and technological innovation if sufficient resources are allocated. Because of the urban bias in the development process, these challenges will probably register on policy makers' agenda. The second two major challenges—floods and drought—are less amenable to policy and technological solutions: many humanitarian emergency challenges lie ahead. This article describes the widely varying impact of both globalisation and climate change across Asia. The greatest losers are those who flee one marginal location, the arid inland areas, only to settle in another marginal location in the flood prone coastal slums. Effective preparation is required, and an effective response when subsequent humanitarian crises occur. PMID:21506298

  17. The Climate Policy Narrative for a Dangerously Warming World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanford, Todd [Union of Concerned Scientists; Frumhoff, Peter [Union of Concerned Scientists; Luers, Amy [Skoll Global Threats Fund; Gulledge, Jay [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures will likely rise above the 2 C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate.

  18. Emissions trading for climate policy - US and European perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernd Hansjuergens (ed.) [Martin Luther-Universitaet Halle-Wittenburg (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    The 1997 Kyoto Conference introduced emissions trading as a new policy instrument for climate protection. Bringing together scholars in the fields of economics, political science and law, this book provides a description, analysis and evaluation of different aspects of emissions trading as an instrument to control greenhouse gases. The authors analyse theoretical aspects of regulatory instruments for climate policy, provide an overview of US experience with market-based instruments, draw lessons from existing trading schemes for the control of greenhouse gases, and discuss options for emissions trading in climate policy. They also highlight the background of climate policy and instrument choice in the US and Europe and of the emerging new systems in Europe, particularly the new EU's directive for a CO{sub 2} emissions trading system. 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  19. Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H

    2015-12-29

    Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

  20. Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H

    2015-12-29

    Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting. PMID:26644560

  1. Business and Climate Change:Key Strategic and Policy Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ans Kolk

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Many companies, policymakers and other stakeholders see climate change as the most pressing environmental problem of our time. In bailout plans and policies to address the economic recession and credit crisis, climate aspects haves figured prominently as well. This article examines recent policy and economic developments and their relevance for business and climate change, considering the implications of the economic slowdown and bailouts. Dilemmas in the economy-climate-policy nexus in the current setting are also placed in the broader context related to innovating for climate change, highlighting some of the competitive, technological and market issues that must be taken into account in order to break the present dead-lock that hinders radical moves to a low-carbon economy.

  2. How Can Policy Encourage Economically Sensible Climate Adaptation?

    OpenAIRE

    V. Kerry Smith

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the role of incentive based climate adaptation policies. It uses the early literature on pricing and capacity choices under demand uncertainty to describe how revised price structures for the substitutes for climate services can be treated as anticipatory adaptation. In many situations the policies determining the prices of these services make them difficult to adjust. Thus, excess demand will not be managed through price adjustment. This situation is important because it...

  3. Climate change mitigation policy paradigms — national objectives and alignments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Garg, Amit; Christensen, John M.;

    2014-01-01

    for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options......, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have...... been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together...

  4. Monetary compensations in climate policy through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment The case of oil-exporting countries

    OpenAIRE

    Waisman, H.; Rozenberg, Julie; Hourcade, Jean Charles

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the compensations that major oil producers have claimed for since the Kyoto Protocol in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate policy on their economies. The amount of these adverse impacts is assessed through a general equilibrium model which endogenizes both the reduction of oil exportation revenues under international climate policy and the macroeconomic effect of carbon pricing on Middle-East's economy. We show that compensating the drop of exportation r...

  5. Impacts, risks, and governance of climate engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Liu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate engineering is a potential alternative method to curb global warming, and this discipline has garnered considerable attention from the international scientific community including the Chinese scientists. This manuscript provides an overview of several aspects of climate engineering, including its definition, its potential impacts and risk, and its governance status. The overall conclusion is that China is not yet ready to implement climate engineering. However, it is important for China to continue conducting research on climate engineering, particularly with respect to its feasible application within China, its potential social, economic, and environmental impacts, and possible international governance structures and governing principles, with regard to both experimentation and implementation.

  6. Impacts, risks, and governance of climate engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Zhe; CHEN Ying

    2015-01-01

    Climate engineering is a potential alternative method to curb global warming, and this discipline has garnered considerable attention from the international scientific community including the Chinese scientists. This manuscript provides an overview of several aspects of climate engi-neering, including its definition, its potential impacts and risk, and its governance status. The overall conclusion is that China is not yet ready to implement climate engineering. However, it is important for China to continue conducting research on climate engineering, particularly with respect to its feasible application within China, its potential social, economic, and environmental impacts, and possible international governance structures and governing principles, with regard to both experimentation and implementation.

  7. Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

    2015-02-01

    Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

  8. Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Incorporates wellbeing into understandings of climate change impacts on health. • Considers a range of secondary impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. • Examines co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for health and wellbeing. • Emphasises the spatially and socially differentiated repercussions of adaptation and mitigation measures. - Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors

  9. Three Economic Perspectives on Post - 2012 Global Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Gainza Carmenates, Ronal

    2011-01-01

    This thesis presents three economic perspectives to moving forward a global climate agreement for post-2012. The first part develops a grading system for assessing thirteen proposals for post-2012 climate policy. The grades are based on four criteria: environmental effectiveness, cost effectiveness, distributional considerations and institutional feasibility. The grades are analyzed using two complementary methods: principal component and cluster ...

  10. Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Nkem, J.N.; Locatelli, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay particul

  11. Urban Agglomeration Economies in Climate Policy : A Dynamic CGE Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Grazi, F.; H. Waisman

    2009-01-01

    This paper designs and solves a theoretical model in the light of the new economic geography to assess the role of urban land use in driving local energy consumption pathways that affect global climate change. To inform on the urban economic sectors of climate pressure we offer new modeling arguments and take the next step of testing them in simulations using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for international climate policy. The exercise of embedding urban economies in a CGE framewo...

  12. Reducing conflicts between climate policy and energy policy in the US: The important role of the states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The absence of US national action on global climate change policy has prompted initiatives by the US Congress, cities, states, and regions toward what is likely to become a long-term, collaborative effort to harmonize national energy and climate policies. This upward evolution in the face of a reluctant administration is historically consistent with the development of national legislation on other environmental and social issues in the US. At the heart of this movement is the need to resolve conflicts between high-intensity use of low-cost fossil energy supplies, and the dominating impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global climate change. US states are among the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the world and play a critical role in supplying and transforming energy, as well as consuming it, for economic advantage. State governments are also likely to have to shoulder some of the cost of potentially extensive climate damages and bear the brunt of the cost of implementing future federal mandates. As a result, many are taking proactive stances on the development of climate mitigation policy to prepare for, accelerate, and/or guide national policy. As US states show leadership on addressing greenhouse gas emissions, they also play an important role in forging policies and measures that reduce economic conflict between energy and climate goals. A number have launched or completed greenhouse gas mitigation plans and other major policies in the past few years that address these conflicts through: (1) finding ways to reduce mitigation costs, including the use of incentive-based policy instruments; (2) promoting an open and democratic policy process that includes major stakeholders; (3) promoting equity across socioeconomic groups, regions, and generations; and (4) promoting interregional cooperation. The results are promising and suggest that the state arena for climate and energy policy is evolving quickly and constructively toward alternatives that reduce conflict

  13. Reducing conflicts between climate policy and energy policy in the US: The important role of the states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Thomas D.; Rose, Adam Z. [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States)

    2006-03-15

    The absence of US national action on global climate change policy has prompted initiatives by the US Congress, cities, states, and regions toward what is likely to become a long-term, collaborative effort to harmonize national energy and climate policies. This upward evolution in the face of a reluctant administration is historically consistent with the development of national legislation on other environmental and social issues in the US. At the heart of this movement is the need to resolve conflicts between high-intensity use of low-cost fossil energy supplies, and the dominating impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global climate change. US states are among the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the world and play a critical role in supplying and transforming energy, as well as consuming it, for economic advantage. State governments are also likely to have to shoulder some of the cost of potentially extensive climate damages and bear the brunt of the cost of implementing future federal mandates. As a result, many are taking proactive stances on the development of climate mitigation policy to prepare for, accelerate, and/or guide national policy. As US states show leadership on addressing greenhouse gas emissions, they also play an important role in forging policies and measures that reduce economic conflict between energy and climate goals. A number have launched or completed greenhouse gas mitigation plans and other major policies in the past few years that address these conflicts through: (1) finding ways to reduce mitigation costs, including the use of incentive-based policy instruments; (2) promoting an open and democratic policy process that includes major stakeholders; (3) promoting equity across socioeconomic groups, regions, and generations; and (4) promoting interregional cooperation. The results are promising and suggest that the state arena for climate and energy policy is evolving quickly and constructively toward alternatives that reduce conflict

  14. Urban and rural policies and the climate change issue: the French experience of governance

    OpenAIRE

    Mathy, Sandrine

    2007-01-01

    This article describes and analyses each level of governance relevant to address climate mitigation within France. This refers either to climate policies or to measures adopted for other reasons but which impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first part describes the French context related to GHG emissions to emphasize the importance of taking into account local specificities when considering the determinants of GHG emissions. The second part analyses the framework of French governanc...

  15. Reconstructing Noah’s ark : Integration of climate change adaptation into Swedish public policy

    OpenAIRE

    Glaas, Erik

    2013-01-01

    Due to expected impacts such as flooding, landslides, and biodiversity loss, climate change adaptation has become recognized as an inevitable part of climate change policy and practice. However, our understanding of how to organize the management of adaptation is lacking, and few concrete measures have yet been implemented. Knowledge gaps exist relating to constraints on and opportunities and facilitating factors for adaptation. This study aims to fill such gaps by analyzing how Swedish clima...

  16. Paradigms of global climate change and sustainable development: Issues and related policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabhat Kumar Rai

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Combating climate change is intimately linked with peace and resource equity. Therefore, critical link establishment between climate change and sustainable development is extremely relevant in global scenario. Following the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, the international sustainable development agenda was taken up by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD; the climate change agenda was carried forward by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC. International and local climate change mitigation policies need to be assessed based on sustainability criteria. The increasing concern over climate change drives towards the search of solutions enabling to combat climate change into broader context of sustainable development. The core element of sustainable development is the integration of economic, social and environmental concerns in policy-making. Therefore, article also analyzes post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes and their impact on sustainable development. Wide range of post- Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures has different impact on different groups of countries. Nevertheless, there are several reasons for optimism that sustainable consumption patterns might develop. One is the diversity of current consumption patterns and the growing minority concerned with ethical consumption. Another is the growing understanding of innovation processes, developed to address technological change, but applicable to social innovation. A third reason is the growing reflexivity of communities and institutions.

  17. Neglecting the Urban Poor in Bangladesh: Research, Policy and Action in the Context of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Nicola Banks, Manoj Roy and David Hulme

    2011-01-01

    In Bangladesh, urban poverty is neglected in research, policy and action on poverty reduction. This paper explores the underlying reasons for this relative neglect, which include national identity and image, the political economy of urban poverty and the structuring of knowledge creation. It argues for more comprehensive policy and programmes for the urban poor given Bangladesh’s increasingly urban future and the growing magnitude of urban poverty. The impact of climate change will accelerate...

  18. Neglecting the urban poor in Bangladesh: research, policy and action in the context of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Nicola Banks; Manoj Roy; David Hulme

    2011-01-01

    In Bangladesh, urban poverty is neglected in research, policy and action on poverty reduction. This paper explores the underlying foundations for this relative neglect, including national identity and image, the political economy of urban poverty, and the structuring of knowledge creation. It argues for more comprehensive policy and programmes for the urban poor given Bangladesh’s increasingly urban future and the growing magnitude of urban poverty. The impact of climate change will accelerat...

  19. Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

  20. Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; Frieler, Katja; Friend, Andrew D.; Gosling, Simon N.; Hemming, Deborah; Khabarov, Nikolay; Kim, Hyungjun; Lomas, Mark R.; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Mengel, Matthias; Morse, Andrew; Neumann, Kathleen; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Ruane, Alex C.

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

  1. Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Franziska; Müller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Colón González, Felipe de Jesus; Flörke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; Frieler, Katja; Friend, Andrew D.; Gosling, Simon N.; Hemming, Deborah; Khabarov, Nikolay; Kim, Hyungjun; Lomas, Mark R.; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Mengel, Matthias; Morse, Andrew; Neumann, Kathleen; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Ruane, Alex C.; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Tessler, Zachary D.; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Warszawski, Lila; Wisser, Dominik; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980–2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty. PMID:24344270

  2. Science integration into US climate and ocean policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petes, Laura E.; Howard, Jennifer F.; Helmuth, Brian S.; Fly, Elizabeth K.

    2014-08-01

    The pace of environmental change lends urgency to the need for integration of climate considerations into ocean policy and management. A recent rapid expansion of ocean and climate policies provides a timely window of opportunity for the scientific community to inform and support these efforts. Lessons can be learned from successful initiatives, where scientists are working hand-in-hand with decision makers and managers to enhance ocean resilience. Looking ahead, the most pressing decision-needs associated with oceans and climate change should serve to prioritize and drive scientific efforts.

  3. Conclusions: inequality, impacts, and policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W. Salverda; B. Nolan; D. Checchi; I. Marx; A. McKnight; I.G. Tóth; H. van de Werfhorst

    2014-01-01

    Keeping economic inequality in check is an uphill battle, though countries differ. General drivers seem mediated, moderated, accelerated or perhaps even replaced by demographic, institutions or policy-making changes. Growing inequality is not found robustly linked to worsening social outcomes (healt

  4. European climate change policy beyond 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    There is an increasing scientific consensus that human activities do trigger climate changes. Actual forecasts predict temperature increases that are likely to be beyond the adaptation potential of ecosystems. These considerations play a major role in shaping public opinion and the media landscape, culminating in the view that Europe needs to play a leading role in combating climate change.

  5. Climate policy in India: what shapes international, national and state policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atteridge, Aaron; Shrivastava, Manish Kumar; Pahuja, Neha; Upadhyay, Himani

    2012-01-01

    At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level.

  6. National Climate Change Policy : Are the New German Energy Policy Initiatives in Conflict with WTO Law?

    OpenAIRE

    Böhm, Frédéric; Biermann, Frank (Prof. Dr. ); Trabold, Harald; Dröge, Susanne; Brohm, Rainer

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses German energy policy instruments and their compatibility with WTO rules. Germany and the EU are forerunners in international climate change policy and driving forces behind the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. German energy policy includes approaches to foster electricity generation from renewable resources. Our major question is whether both the policy tools currently applied (standards, taxes and subsidies) and those under consideration (labels, green certificates and border tax ad...

  7. Climatic change: possible impacts on human health

    OpenAIRE

    Beniston, Martin

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses a number of problems relating climatic change and human health. Following an introduction that outlines the over-arching issues, a short summary is given on climatic change and its anthropogenic causes. The rest of the paper then focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of global climatic change on health. Direct effects comprise changes in the hygrothermal stress response of humans, atmospheric pollution, water quality and availability; indirect effects include the pot...

  8. Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randalls, Samuel

    2011-01-01

    Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

  9. 78 FR 34660 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-10

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has... parties may submit comments on this transaction by email to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to...

  10. 77 FR 21981 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-12

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office ] EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... submit comments on this transaction by email to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811 Vermont...

  11. 76 FR 79679 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-22

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... may submit comments on this transaction by email to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811...

  12. 75 FR 48333 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-10

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office ] EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States... may submit comments on this transaction by e-mail to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to...

  13. 76 FR 54467 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... this transaction by e-mail to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue, NW., Room...

  14. 77 FR 77078 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-31

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has... by email to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue NW., Room 442, Washington,...

  15. 77 FR 29344 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-17

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  16. 76 FR 28225 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-16

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  17. 75 FR 148 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-04

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  18. 75 FR 28021 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-19

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  19. 78 FR 37539 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-21

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  20. 77 FR 23247 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2012-04-18

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  1. 77 FR 3772 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2012-01-25

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... on this transaction by email to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue NW.,...

  2. 77 FR 53201 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-31

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has... may submit comments on this transaction by email to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811...

  3. 77 FR 47840 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-10

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  4. 78 FR 11884 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2013-02-20

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  5. 75 FR 27778 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2010-05-18

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  6. 77 FR 69453 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-19

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  7. 77 FR 40612 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2012-07-10

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... transaction by email to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue NW., Room 432,...

  8. 75 FR 20993 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2010-04-22

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue, NW., Room 1238, Washington, DC...

  9. 77 FR 6563 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-08

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  10. 78 FR 39728 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2013-07-02

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has... on this transaction by email to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue NW.,...

  11. 77 FR 68776 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-16

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  12. 75 FR 24700 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2010-05-05

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  13. 77 FR 36536 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2012-06-19

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  14. 77 FR 65686 - Economic Impact Policy

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    2012-10-30

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  15. The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Skoufias, Emmanuel; Rabassa, Mariano; Olivieri, Sergio; Brahmbhatt, Milan

    2011-01-01

    Over the last century, the world has seen a sustained decline in the proportion of people living in poverty. However, there is an increasing concern that climate change could slow or possibly even reverse poverty reduction progress. Given the complexities involved in analyzing climate change impacts on poverty, different approaches can be helpful; this note surveys the results of recent re...

  16. Impact of climate change on water quality in the Netherlands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verweij, W.; Van der Wiele, J.; Van Moorselaar, I.; Van der Grinten, E.

    2010-08-15

    Climate change aggravates existing problems with surface water quality in the Netherlands. New water quality problems are not expected. That is the conclusion of a literature search carried out by RIVM, focused on the expected impact of climate change on water quality, including effects on ecology, human health and some economic sectors. RIVM therefore recommends authorities not to develop new policy but to incorporate the possible impacts of climate change into existing policy. The Water Framework Directive targets may become unfeasible as a result of the additional pressure caused by climate change. RIVM also recommends stronger integration between policy areas and closer cooperation between authorities. The first step in this project was drawing up an inventory of climate change projections. Average temperature is expected to rise and the variation within seasons is expected to increase. The next step was investigating the corresponding effects for the quality of surface water in the Netherlands. The chemical quality of surface water will deteriorate and the concentration of oxygen will decrease. Additionally, the effects of eutrophication, like algal blooms, will increase. Climate change will increase pressure on ecosystems caused by salinisation, acidification, eutrophication and fragmentation. As a result, new plant and animal species may appear in the Netherlands, having spread from the south, while other species may disappear. Micro-organisms might cause health risks when the climate changes but the reverse might also be the case. Higher temperatures may have consequences for public water supply because surface water may not be used as a source when temperature standards are exceeded.

  17. Venezuelan policies and responses on climate change and natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponi, Claudio; Rosales, Anibal

    1992-06-01

    Venezuela is an intertropical country which has the fortune not to suffer the severities of natural hazards which are usual in other countries of this region. It is a developing country, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil production and exports. Its greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low, but it is expected that the planned industrialization development will bring an associated increase in emissions. As a nation, Venezuela has a highly developed environmental consciousness. The Ministry of environment, the first in Latin America, was created in 1977, and has been the main contributor to the national policy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction. As in many developing countries actions and responses in this regard have been rather limited in scope, and even though legislation has been developed, many problems arise for its enforcement. Several local warning systems, civil defense procedures, and infrastructural protection measures are operational, however they have not been designed, revised, or planned taking into consideration the potential impacts of climate change. Presently Venezuela is an active participant state in the negotiation for a framework convention on climate change. That is a very difficult negotiation for our country. Here we have to conciliate enviromental principles with national economic interests. The elements of our position in this contex are presented in this statement.

  18. Social and economic impacts of climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

    2016-09-01

    For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. PMID:27609899

  19. Indonesian National Policy on Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Yun Santoso

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available From its arousal, the issue of climate change or global warming has become a distinct global trend setter in multidisciplinary discussion, including in the law perspective. Within legal discourse, the issue of climate change developed rapidly into several aspect, not only about adaptation nor mitigation, especially since the plurality of moral conviction relevant to the climate change facts. As a global matter, each country has the responsibility to adapt and mitigate with its own character and policy. This normative research aims to explore and describe in brief the Indonesian national policy in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Gradually, the contribution of Indonesia is getting firm and solid to the climate change regime, especially after the Bali Action Plan 2007.

  20. World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030 - WETO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    WETO describes in detail scenarios for the evolution of World and European energy systems, power generation technologies and impacts of climate change policy in the main world regions or countries. It presents a coherent framework to analyse the energy, technology and environment trends and issues over the period to 2030, focusing on Europe in a world context. The document highlights three key topics. First, in a Reference scenario, i.e. if no strong specific policy initiatives and measures are taken, world CO2 emissions are expected to double in 2030 and, with a share of 90%, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy system. Secondly, the great majority of the increase in oil production will come from OPEC countries and the EU will rely predominantly on natural gas imported from the CIS. Lastly, as the largest growing energy demand and CO2 emissions originate from developing countries (mainly China and India), Europe will have to intensify its co-operation, particularly in terms of transfer of technologies. (A.L.B.)

  1. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  2. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  3. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  4. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  5. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  6. The Language of Climate Change Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Calel

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Although the Copenhagen Accord failed to establish a Post-Kyoto infrastructure for international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, countries around the world are moving ahead with domestic pledges and policies to cut carbon. Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Ireland already have domestic carbon taxes; Britain has just introduced a major energy efficiency scheme for buildings and announced plans to introduce an airplane tax; the EU Emissions Trading Scheme is being extended to include the aviation sector; Japan is moving ahead with plans to introduce a domestic cap-and-trade programme; several cap-and-trade bills have been circulating on the floor of the US Congress, and former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd was recently ousted after reneging on promises of a comprehensive cap-and-trade scheme. The success of all these efforts depends crucially on compliance. If emitters do not comply with new regulations, it hardly matters what environmental policies are pursued. When choosing the instruments of environmental policy, therefore, it is essential to consider what level of compliance they will garner. The literature that examines this question usually compares the costs of compliance or monitoring across different environmental policy instruments, it being understood that lower costs lead to greater compliance. This note explores a different route to increasing compliance. A policy instrument determines what language the regulator, the emitter, and the public use to communicate about environmental and economic priorities. The language of environmental policy also determines the complexity of the messages being communicated. Different policy instruments may then invoke different attitudes toward non-compliance. One should not discount the potential these attitudes have in influencing efforts to comply with new environmental regulations. This exploratory note compares the 'languages' of three major policy instruments: direct regulation

  7. Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewell, Jessica; Vinichenko, Vadim; McCollum, David; Bauer, Nico; Riahi, Keywan; Aboumahboub, Tino; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kober, Tom; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van der Zwaan, Bob; Cherp, Aleh

    2016-06-01

    Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2-15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ∘C.

  8. African voices on climate change. Policy concerns and potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This publication is the result of a process of building an understanding and facilitating a dialogue on the issues related to climate change, on the implications that climate change have to Africa, and on the relevance of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for the continent. Research work was carried out over a year and twelve African countries were directly engaged in this projects, contributing with the work and expertise of their specialists. A whole process of discussions was started aiming not only at identifying questions concerning the countries directly involved but at illustrating the diversity of Africa's economies and societies, and attempting to raise common issues of interest for the whole of the continent. The objective of this publication is to provide a starting point for the discussions to take place during the African Conference on Policy Options and Responses to Climate Change, 5-8 December 1994, in Nairobi. This conference is not only the culmination of 'Climate and Africa' but, most of all, it opens a forum for discussions on climate issues among African policy makers and for building African positions in relation to the Climate Convention. The ideas expressed here are drawn from the material produced in the Climate and Africa Project. Therefore, this publication does not necessarily represent the positions of the Stockholm Environment Institute or the African Center for Technology Studies in relation to Africa and the Climate Convention

  9. Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Lovell, Heather

    2012-01-01

    This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

  10. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. PMID:26630544

  11. MCA4climate - a practical framework for pro-development climate policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trevor, Morgan

    -operative action under the UN Climate Convention. It is crucial that those actions are designed within a coherent and robust policy-planning framework to ensure that they are both cost-e”ective and compatible with broader social, economic and environmental goals. For developing countries, sound climatepolicy....... Drawing upon best practices, tried and tested in other parts of the world, is clearly an advantage. The MCA4climate, a new UNEP initiative, is designed to assist policymakers, particularly in the developing world, in that endeavour. It o”ers concrete guidance and recommendations on a number of critical...... on climate policymaking from around the world and uses an innovative approach to assessing policies that ensures that climate policies and strategies take full account of developmental concerns and objectives. The MCA4climate initiative reflects UNEP’s mission to provide leadership and encourage partnership...

  12. A Municipal 'Climate Revolution'? The Shaping of Municipal Climate Change Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, Jens Villiam; Strobel, Bjarne W.

    2013-01-01

    This article investigates the climate policies formulated by Danish municipalities, and the huge variation in scope and ambition of these policies. Based on a survey covering all Danish municipalities, it is found that 72% of all municipalities have climate change action plans with annual CO2......-reduction goals between 0.9 and 5.9%. Size of municipality, degree of incorporation of climate change policies in the municipal administration, presence of ‘green organizations’, as well as membership of national and international climate networks, are found to be of importance for the level of ambition...... of the climate plans. Denne artikel undersøger danske kommuners klimapolitik, og den store variation i denne. Med udgangspunkt i en spørgeskemaundersøgelse omfattende alle danske kommuner konstateres det, at 72% af kommunerne har en klimahandlingsplan, som fastsætter årlige CO2-reduktioner for kommunen som...

  13. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  14. Climate policy studies by the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, ECON and Energy Data:10 Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The overall focus is the relation between energy, environment and development on the national level and international co-operation concerning sustainable energy management and global environmental change. A series of country studies analyses the economic, political and institutional factors influencing energy, environment and climate policies. The role of non-state actors like NGOs and the energy industries in international environmental affairs is also closely examined. Strategies to enhance energy efficiency are studied with a particular focus on identifying and overcoming barriers to policy implementation. The ways in which developments in international energy markets affect the potential and scope of international environmental agreements are analysed, as are the impacts of different international environmental regimes on energy markets. Particular attention is paid on the opportunities and limitations of international institutions like the European Community, the United Nations, the multilateral development banks and GATT, in promoting international co-operation on energy and environmental issues. Strategies to overcome North/South conflicts over global environmental issues are examined, including issue linkages in international negotiations and North/South transfer of resources and technology. Another important area of sustainable production and consumption of energy in developing countries. Project titles are: 1) ''Leader'' and ''entrepreneur'' in international negotiations . A conceptual analysis. 2) Choosing climate policy. Decision theoretical premises. 3) Japan in the greenhouse responsibilities, policies and prospects for combating global warming. 4) Impacts on developing economies from changing trade regimes and growing international environmental concerns. 5) US energy policy in the greenhouse from the North slope forests to the Gulf Stream waters - this land was made for fossil fuels. 6) The climate policy of the EC - too hot to handle. 7) US climate

  15. Climate policy studies by the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, ECON and Energy Data:10 Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andresen, S.; Eikeland, P.O.; Eleri, E.O.; Fermann, G.; Fredriksen, O.; Halseth, A.; Hansen, S.; Haugland, T.; Malnes, R.; Skjaerseth, J.B.; Ottosen, R

    1993-07-01

    The overall focus is the relation between energy, environment and development on the national level and international co-operation concerning sustainable energy management and global environmental change. A series of country studies analyses the economic, political and institutional factors influencing energy, environment and climate policies. The role of non-state actors like NGOs and the energy industries in international environmental affairs is also closely examined. Strategies to enhance energy efficiency are studied with a particular focus on identifying and overcoming barriers to policy implementation. The ways in which developments in international energy markets affect the potential and scope of international environmental agreements are analysed, as are the impacts of different international environmental regimes on energy markets. Particular attention is paid on the opportunities and limitations of international institutions like the European Community, the United Nations, the multilateral development banks and GATT, in promoting international co-operation on energy and environmental issues. Strategies to overcome North/South conflicts over global environmental issues are examined, including issue linkages in international negotiations and North/South transfer of resources and technology. Another important area of sustainable production and consumption of energy in developing countries. Project titles are: 1) ''Leader'' and ''entrepreneur'' in international negotiations . A conceptual analysis. 2) Choosing climate policy. Decision theoretical premises. 3) Japan in the greenhouse responsibilities, policies and prospects for combating global warming. 4) Impacts on developing economies from changing trade regimes and growing international environmental concerns. 5) US energy policy in the greenhouse from the North slope forests to the Gulf Stream waters - this land was made for fossil fuels. 6) The climate policy of

  16. Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A workshop was held to encourage awareness of the climate change impact issues and build collaboration among the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence basin (GLSLB) research, resource management, and policy-making community; to identify research opportunities to address the issues of water management, ecosystem health, human health, and land use and management; and to recommend directions and priority areas for future studies to develop an integrated climate impact assessment for the GLSLB. Presentations at the workshop were on topics including an overview of the GLSLB Project, the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand, and impacts on water quality, fisheries, wetlands, agriculture, shoreline management, and human health. Panel sessions were also convened to discuss information requirements that would assist in decision- and policy-making and to address the concept of integration. Working groups on water management, ecosystem health, land use and management, and human health were formed and made recommendations. A synthesis is presented of the reports from and recommendations of the four working groups as well as extended abstracts of the plenary presentations. A separate abstract has been prepared for one of the presentations from this workshop

  17. Advantages of a polycentric approach to climate change policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Daniel H.

    2015-02-01

    Lack of progress in global climate negotiations has led scholars to reconsider polycentric approaches to climate policy. Several examples of subglobal mechanisms to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions have been touted, but it remains unclear why they might achieve better climate outcomes than global negotiations alone. Decades of work conducted by researchers associated with the Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis at Indiana University have emphasized two chief advantages of polycentric approaches over monocentric ones: they provide more opportunities for experimentation and learning to improve policies over time, and they increase communications and interactions -- formal and informal, bilateral and multilateral -- among parties to help build the mutual trust needed for increased cooperation. A wealth of theoretical, empirical and experimental evidence supports the polycentric approach.

  18. Impacts of climate change in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main conclusion of the study on the title subject is that the impacts of climatic change in the Netherlands are still limited. However, the impacts will be stronger in the next decades and will be even problematic at the end of this century. In this book an overview is given of probable changes in the climate for the Netherlands, danger for flooding in specific areas of the Netherlands, changes of the nature, impacts for agriculture, tourism and recreation, and industry and businesses, and risks for public health

  19. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation. Report for Policy Advisors and Policy Makers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndes, Goran [Chalmers Univ. of Technology (Sweden); Bird, Nell [Joanneum Research (Austria); Cowle, Annette [National Centre for Rural Greenhouse Gas Research (Australia)

    2010-07-01

    The report addresses a much debated issue - bioenergy and associated land use change, and how the climate change mitigation from use of bioenergy can be influenced by greenhouse gas emissions arising from land use change. The purpose of the report was to produce an unbiased, authoritative statement on this topic aimed especially at policy advisors and policy makers.

  20. Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.-G. Hoppe

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the Western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the collapse and conversion of the political system in the Southern and Eastern Border States, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, the bacterial variables, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. The strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen even in the surface layer was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. In the long run all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables as well as precipitation and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring

  1. Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.-G. Hoppe

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the conversion of the political system in the southern and eastern border states, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, bacteria number, bacterial biomass and bacterial production, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. Strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen, even in the surface layer, was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. The long-term seasonal patterns of all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables (as well as precipitation and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll, which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of

  2. A review of biogeophysical impacts of bioenergy-induced LULCC and associated climate metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, R. M.; O'Halloran, T. L.

    2015-12-01

    In addition to aerosols, carbon, and other trace gases, land use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum exchanged between the land surface and atmosphere which in turn affects climate. Although long recognized scientifically as being important, these so-called biogeophysical climate forcings are rarely included in climate policies for bioenergy and other land management projects due to challenges involved in their quantification, and, in some cases, due to their large uncertainties. Here, I review observation- and modeling-based studies linking biogeophysical impacts to bioenergy policies, identifying the dominant physical mechanism(s) and the temporal and spatial scale and extent of the impact(s). Quantitative methods and/or metrics for characterizing and attributing biogeophysical climate impacts to bioenergy systems are also reviewed and evaluated in terms of their complexity, scientific uncertainty, and policy relevancy.

  3. Policy impacts of ecosystem services knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Stephen M; McKenzie, Emily; Ricketts, Taylor H

    2016-02-16

    Research about ecosystem services (ES) often aims to generate knowledge that influences policies and institutions for conservation and human development. However, we have limited understanding of how decision-makers use ES knowledge or what factors facilitate use. Here we address this gap and report on, to our knowledge, the first quantitative analysis of the factors and conditions that explain the policy impact of ES knowledge. We analyze a global sample of cases where similar ES knowledge was generated and applied to decision-making. We first test whether attributes of ES knowledge themselves predict different measures of impact on decisions. We find that legitimacy of knowledge is more often associated with impact than either the credibility or salience of the knowledge. We also examine whether predictor variables related to the science-to-policy process and the contextual conditions of a case are significant in predicting impact. Our findings indicate that, although many factors are important, attributes of the knowledge and aspects of the science-to-policy process that enhance legitimacy best explain the impact of ES science on decision-making. Our results are consistent with both theory and previous qualitative assessments in suggesting that the attributes and perceptions of scientific knowledge and process within which knowledge is coproduced are important determinants of whether that knowledge leads to action.

  4. Climate change and health and well being national policy and planning conference summary document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-06-01

    This conference addressed priority issues regarding Canada's adaptation to climate change. The objective was to develop collaborative policy networks and provide information about the development of Canada's health impact assessment guidelines. Although climate change mitigation measures are currently underway to reduce the impact of greenhouse gas emissions, the efforts may not be enough to completely eliminate the risk of climate change. The risks are social, environmental and economic. This first annual conference was attended by policy analysts and practitioners from federal health programs, provincial and territorial Ministries of Health, community health programs and health and environmental non-government organizations. The focus of discussions was the impact that climate change will have on health from thermal extremes, extreme events, environmental contamination and other occurrences. Health Canada has identified 8 significant climate change induced health effects that are expected to increase in the future. They include increased smog episodes, heat waves, water and food borne contamination, vector-borne diseases, stratospheric ozone depletion, and extreme weather events. It is expected that vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, the poor, disabled, immigrant populations and Aboriginal Canadians will be most affected. Some adaptation strategies that are best suited for a community's infrastructure, operations, economy or populations are described. It was noted that the effects of climate will vary by region, as there are considerable regional differences in patterns of warming, precipitation and extreme events.

  5. Report of a Policy Forum: Weather, Climate, and Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-07-01

    The report of a policy forum on Weather, Climate, and Energy presents findings and recommendations that, if implemented, could position the energy sector, the providers of weather and climate science and services, and energy consumers to mange more cooperatively and effectively the production, distribution, and consumption of electrical power and fossil fuels. Recent U.S. experience with a series of energy shortages encouraged the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program to join with the University of Oklahoma in the development of a forum to address the issues connected with responding to those shortages. Nearly 100 representatives from the public, private, and academic portions of the energy production sector, the meteorological community, political and corporate leaders, weather risk management analysts, and policy makers met on October 16-17, 2001 to discuss these policy issues.

  6. Catching air? Climate change policy in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have each participated actively in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of the Parties, and each is developing domestic rules and institutions to address UN obligations under the treaties. Russia and Ukraine are each Annex I/Annex B countries. Kazakhstan will become Annex I upon ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, but has not yet established itself as Annex B. Each state has evolved a distinct set of policies and priorities in the domestic and the international arena. Drawing largely on interviews in each country, this article presents brief histories of the evolution of climate policy, focusing on each state's behavior in the international arena, the sources of domestic policy leadership, and the forces that led to change in each national approach. Current policies and practices are evaluated with an eye towards learning from the successes and failures in each state

  7. Co-benefits of air quality and climate change policies on air quality of the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzoli, Luca; Mert Gokturk, Ozan; Unal, Alper; Kindap, Tayfun; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is one of the regions of the world where significant impacts due to climate changes are predicted to occur in the future. Observations and model simulations are used to provide to the policy makers scientifically based estimates of the necessity to adjust national emission reductions needed to achieve air quality objectives in the context of a changing climate, which is not only driven by GHGs, but also by short lived climate pollutants, such as tropospheric ozone and aerosols. There is an increasing interest and need to design cost-benefit emission reduction strategies, which could improve both regional air quality and global climate change. In this study we used the WRF-CMAQ air quality modelling system to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone and particulate matter concentrations in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean and to understand how this contribution could change in different future scenarios. We have investigated four different future scenarios for year 2050 defined during the European Project CIRCE: a "business as usual" scenario (BAU) where no or just actual measures are taken into account; an "air quality" scenario (BAP) which implements the National Emission Ceiling directive 2001/81/EC member states of the European Union (EU-27); a "climate change" scenario (CC) which implements global climate policies decoupled from air pollution policies; and an "integrated air quality and climate policy" scenario (CAP) which explores the co-benefit of global climate and EU-27 air pollution policies. The BAP scenario largely decreases summer ozone concentrations over almost the entire continent, while the CC and CAP scenarios similarly determine lower decreases in summer ozone but extending all over the Mediterranean, the Middle East countries and Russia. Similar patterns are found for winter PM concentrations; BAP scenario improves pollution levels only in the Western EU countries, and the CAP scenario determines

  8. Getting Into Neutral: Climate Policy and the University

    OpenAIRE

    William Shobe

    2008-01-01

    On March 11, 2008 the University of Virginia Faculty Senate voted in favor of having the university take steps to make it climate neutral. This paper examines whether such a policy is feasible, and further whether pursuing a policy of climate neutrality is likely the best way to spend university resources, if the goal is to reduce the university’s carbon footprint. A revised version of this paper was published as Going Green: The inconvenient truth about U.Va.\\'s carbon neutrality initiativ...

  9. Rio - 10 Years After: A Critical Appraisal of Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Böhringer, Christoph; Vogt, Carsten

    2002-01-01

    Ten years after the initial Climate Change Convention from Rio in 1992, the developed world is likely to ratify the Kyoto Protocol which has been celebrated as a milestone in climate protection. Standard economic theory, however, casts doubt that Kyoto will go beyond symbolic policy. In this paper we show that the final concretion of the Kyoto Protocol obeys the theoretical prediction: Kyoto more or less boils down to business-as-usual without significant compliance costs to ratifying parties.

  10. Background document for climate change policy options in Northern Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newton, J. [John Newton Associates, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2001-06-07

    This paper presents an initial compilation of background material in support of the development of climate change policy options for the jurisdictions of Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut in Northern Canada. While Northern Canada contributes only a small fraction of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, scientists forecast changes in average annual temperatures to be among the highest in the world. The Northern Climate Exchange at Yukon College was created in March 2001 to address this issue and to help guide northerners in what they can do now and in the future. This paper includes an annotated bibliography of a total of 75 international, national, and territorial policy documents and major reference documents relevant to climate change issues. It is meant to be a resource for researchers, policy analysts and government officials developing policy options and implementing programs for Northern Canada. While each of the three northern territories are at a different stage in the evolution of their climate change activities, they are all striving to develop strategies and action plans and to initiate the implementation of those plans. It is recognized that many long-standing programs and initiatives, particularly in the areas of energy efficiency and alternate energy, will help northern jurisdictions address their climate change objectives. The three territories are cooperating to deliver their message to the federal government. 75 refs., 4 figs.

  11. Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Indian policy planning

    OpenAIRE

    Chaturvedi, Rajiv K; Kattumuri, Ruth; Ravindranath, Darshini

    2014-01-01

    Climate change affects the balance of natural and socio-economic systems. In the recent years, literature has accumulated on the potentially large-scale impacts of climate change on India. India has emerged as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world, with a high-dependence on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems and forestry, health, sanitation, infrastructure and energy. This necessitates a rapid response by the government, especially i...

  12. Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious cl

  13. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  14. Status of Norwegian climate policy 2011; Statusrapport for norsk klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Norwegians are generally little impressed what Norway as a society has achieved in the climate policy. This is consistent with the actual situation as it is mapped in this year's edition of the Status of Norwegian climate policy. The results obtained in a survey by TNS Gallup which was commissioned by BI Centre for Climate Strategy in connection with the disclosure of the agency's annual status report for the Norwegian climate policy. 1000 Norwegians have been asked about how good or bad they perceive the overall results in various areas of climate policy. Even for climate-friendly heating, which is the area where most perceive that there has been progress, only 39% of the population consider the results as very good or good. In addition to heating, energy efficiency in buildings, Norway's international efforts, research on climate technology and information to the public areas where most Norwegians still think the results are good, and which are the least dissatisfied.Year Status Report on Norwegian climate policy is a joint project between the organization Holder de ord (Do they keep promises) and BI Centre for Climate Strategy. The report shows that people have a fairly accurate picture of climate policy. In most areas, there is little substantial progress since the Low Emission submitted its recommendations in 2006. It is symptomatic that climate policy was recently delayed again - now to 2012. While it is a positive development in the areas that are at the top of people's list. Since 2006, for example, there has been a substantial expansion of district heating in Norway, and building standards have become much stricter when it comes to energy use. Motor vehicle taxes are changed and greenhouse emissions from new cars is 25% lower than in 2006. Norway also play a constructive role, both in relation to the negotiations at the UN on a new climate deal, but also for example in relation to a global sectoral agreement for shipping that was signed

  15. Healthy Food Procurement Policies and Their Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark L. Niebylski

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Unhealthy eating is the leading risk for death and disability globally. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO has called for population health interventions. One of the proposed interventions is to ensure healthy foods are available by implementing healthy food procurement policies. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the evidence base assessing the impact of such policies. A comprehensive review was conducted by searching PubMed and Medline for policies that had been implemented and evaluated the impact of food purchases, food consumption, and behaviors towards healthy foods. Thirty-four studies were identified and found to be effective at increasing the availability and purchases of healthy food and decreasing purchases of unhealthy food. Most policies also had other components such as education, price reductions, and health interventions. The multiple gaps in research identified by this review suggest that additional research and ongoing evaluation of food procurement programs is required. Implementation of healthy food procurement policies in schools, worksites, hospitals, care homes, correctional facilities, government institutions, and remote communities increase markers of healthy eating. Prior or simultaneous implementation of ancillary education about healthy eating, and rationale for the policy may be critical success factors and additional research is needed.

  16. Impact and compliance: OSHA Carcinogen Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, A.F. Jr.; Crowder, C.; Wisniewski, S.; Russell, T.; Senn, K.

    1980-06-26

    This document provides an examination of various aspects of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA)Carcinogen Policy. To satisfy the dimensions of the Policy's broad, general nature, a two-fold approach was taken. Throughout, the focus is on the possible effects of the Policy's implementation, but this is first approached as it generally will effect research and compliance activities across broad industry sectors, while specific impacts on DOE are addressed separately. To overview and integrate these approaches, and to provide a quick reference for further information, an outline of information is presented. General or industry-wide applications are addressed both in the Summary and Overview of the Policy (Chapters I and II) and in the discussion of the Model Standard (Chapter V). Also included is a copy of the Policy itself in the General Industry Standards and interpretations Change 10. Sections specifically addressed to the major concerns of DOE and its contractors are a discussion of implications for action regarding the synthetic fuels program, a comparison of the OSHA Model Regulations and the FE OSH Manual Standards for Carcinogens, and finally, a list of known carcinogens in coal gasification/liquefaction. Together, these elements illustrate the broad scope of the policy's impact, which economic and other constraining consequences begin to become visible. Measures to minimize these consequences are a common underlying theme to each of the sections.

  17. An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaye, J. A.

    2009-12-01

    The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could

  18. 78 FR 12316 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-22

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of the United States has... regions. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction by email to...

  19. 78 FR 6322 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-30

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank United is re-notifying this... United Kingdom. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction by email to...

  20. 77 FR 44614 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-30

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... and Europe. Interested parties may submit comments on this application by email to...

  1. 78 FR 30920 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-23

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of..., Korea, and Taiwan. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction by email to...

  2. 77 FR 26277 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public that the Export-Import Bank of... domestically in Iraq. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction by email to...

  3. Impact assessment of land use policies: Introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bezlepkina, I.; Brouwer, F.M.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    This special issue is built around a series of impact assessments of land use policies and sustainable development in developing countries, carried out in the EU-funded project LUPIS (Sixth framework programme, Global Change and Ecosystems, Contract 36955). The project targeted at the development an

  4. An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bollen, Johannes [CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, P.O. Box 80510, 2508 GM, The Hague (Netherlands); Hers, Sebastiaan [KYOS Energy Consulting, Nieuwe Gracht 49, 2011 ND, Haarlem (Netherlands); Van der Zwaan, Bob [ECN, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands, Policy Studies Department, Radarweg 60, 1043 NT, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Columbia University, Lenfest Center for Sustainable Energy, Earth Institute, 500 West 120th Street, New York, NY 10027 (United States)

    2010-08-15

    This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO{sub 2} emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (author)

  5. Monetary compensations in climate policy through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment: The case of oil-exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper investigates the compensations that major oil producers have claimed for since the Kyoto Protocol in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate policy on their economies. The amount of these adverse impacts is assessed through a general equilibrium model which endogenizes both the reduction of oil exportation revenues under international climate policy and the macroeconomic effect of carbon pricing on Middle-East's economy. We show that compensating the drop of exportation revenues does not offset GDP and welfare losses because of the time profile of the general equilibrium effects. When considering instead compensation based on GDP losses, the effectiveness of monetary transfers proves to be drastically limited by general equilibrium effects in opened economies. The main channels of this efficiency gap are investigated and its magnitude proves to be conditional upon strategic and policy choices of the Middle-East. This leads us to suggest that other means than direct monetary compensating transfers should be discussed to engage the Middle-East in climate policies. - Highlights: • We endogenize the interplay between climate policy, oil markets and the macroeconomy. • We quantify the transfers to compensate climate policy losses in oil-exporting countries. • We assess the general equilibrium effect of monetary transfers in opened economies. • The macroeconomic efficiency of transfers is altered by general equilibrium effects. • Monetary compensation schemes are not efficient for oil exporters in climate policy

  6. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, Olivier [GERAD and Department of Management Sciences, HEC Montreal, Montreal (Qc) (Canada); Edwards, Neil R. [Earth and Environmental Sciences, CEPSAR, Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stocker, Thomas F. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. (author)

  7. Projected Climate Change Impacts on Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najjar, R.; Shortle, J.; Abler, D.; Blumsack, S.; Crane, R.; Kaufman, Z.; McDill, M.; Ready, R.; Rydzik, M.; Wagener, T.; Wardrop, D.; Wilson, T.

    2009-05-01

    We present an assessment of the potential impacts of human-induced climate change on the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, U.S.A. We first assess a suite of 21 global climate models for the state, rating them based on their ability to simulate the climate of Pennsylvania on time scales ranging from submonthly to interannual. The multi-model mean is superior to any individual model. Median projections by late century are 2-4 degrees C warming and 5-10 percent precipitation increases (B1 and A2 scenarios), with larger precipitation increases in winter and spring. Impacts on the commonwealth's aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, forests, energy, outdoor recreation, tourism, and human health, are evaluated. We also examine barriers and opportunities for Pennsylvania created by climate change mitigation. This assessment was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection which, pursuant to the Pennsylvania Climate Change Act, Act 70 of 2008, is required to develop a report on the potential scientific and economic impacts of climate change to Pennsylvania.

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. CORNEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ecosystems, and human settlements are susceptible to variations in the storage, fluxes, and quality of water and sensitive to climate change. From urban and agricultural water supplies to flood management and aquatic ecosystem protection, global warming is affecting all aspects of water resource management. Rising temperatures, loss of snowpack, escalating size and frequency of flood events, and rising sea levels are just some of the impacts of climate change that have broad implications for the management of water resources. With robust scientific evidence showing that human-induced climate change is occurring, it is critical to understand how water quantity and quality might be affected. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the environmental risks caused by climate anomalies on water resources, to examine the negative impacts of a greenhouse warming on the supply and demand for water and the resulting socio-economic implications.

  9. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, ada

  10. The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck

    2015-01-01

    In recent articles, I have argued that integrated assessment models (IAMs) have flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policy-makers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy. But some have claimed that we need some kind of model, and that IAMs can be structured and used in ways that correct for their...

  11. Climate change, aeroallergens, natural particulates, and human health in Australia: state of the science and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beggs, Paul John; Bennett, Charmian Margaret

    2011-03-01

    The objective of this article is to systematically review and assess what is known about the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates, and the associated human health impacts, and to examine responses to these in Australia, focusing on adaptation. Prior research was searched using several general and discipline-specific research databases. The review concludes that whereas there is little original research on the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates in Australia, or the human health consequences of these, research from overseas suggests that these impacts may be adverse and of considerable magnitude. More research is required to assess the impacts of climate change on these airborne particles and associated diseases in Australia and other parts of the Asia-Pacific. There are important policy implications of this review. There is a need for enhanced monitoring of the atmospheric environment and associated health conditions in Australia. Education about climate change and human health in general, and air quality and related diseases specifically, is required for the community, health professionals, and others. Improvements are needed in the preparedness of infrastructure, such as health care facilities and early warning systems, particularly for aeroallergens, and all of these adaptive policy responses require further research.

  12. Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020. Economic and political implications in selected industry and emerging countries. Pre2020 climate policy ambition. Draft version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this research paper is to analyse the current efforts of country activities towards the 2020 2 C target, in order to identify best practices and their possible impact on emission reduction in 2020. A first scan of policies in countries with high greenhouse gas emissions and countries with remarkably ambitious climate change mitigation strategies (see Table 1) revealed that thematic areas with notable coverage in domestic climate policy are: general strategies and targets, renewable energy support schemes for electricity, product standards and codes for energy efficiency in buildings, and direct subsidies and fuel quotas for renewables in Transport. From this, along with initial indications of mitigation potential, we identified four areas where ambition could be significantly enhanced by 2020.

  13. Integrating agricultural policies and water policies under water supply and climate uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    MejíAs, Patricia; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Flichman, Guillermo

    2004-07-01

    Understanding the interactions of water and agricultural policies is crucial for achieving an efficient management of water resources. In the EU, agricultural and environmental policies are seeking to converge progressively toward mutually compatible objectives and, in this context, the recently reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Water Framework Directive constitute the policy framework in which irrigated agriculture and hence water use will evolve. In fact, one of the measures of the European Water Directive is to establish a water pricing policy for improving water use and attaining a more efficient water allocation. The aim of this research is to investigate the irrigators' responses to these changing policy developments in a self-managed irrigation district in southern Spain. A stochastic programming model has been developed to estimate farmers' response to the application of water pricing policies in different agricultural policy scenarios when water availability is subject to varying climate conditions and water storage capacity in the district's reservoir. Results show that irrigators are price-responsive, but a similar water-pricing policy in different agricultural policy options could have distinct effects on water use, farmers' income, and collected revenue by the water authority. Water availability is a critical factor, and pricing policies are less effective for reducing water consumption in drought years. Thus there is a need to integrate the objectives of water policies within the objectives of the CAP programs to avoid distortion effects and to seek synergy between these two policies.

  14. Economic and ethical arguments inglobal climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The debate about the reduction of CO2-emissions, as seen for example at the UN climate conference in Kyoto, includes a mixture of economic and ethical arguments. Joint implementation using the market mechanisms is viewed as being unethical because the rich countries are able to pay others to carry out their redutions. This debate is seen as a continuation of a very old discussion about the ethics of the market. The Nordic electricity market is used as an example to demonstrate that the use of tradeable permissions has well defined positive consequences. (au) 26 refs

  15. [Impact of climatic change on soybean production: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xing-yu; Han, Xue; Ju, Hui; Lin, Er-da

    2010-10-01

    Since the industrial revolution, the rapid increase of global atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases has induced the global warming and the change of global precipitation pattern. The growth, development, yield, and quality of soybean are subject to all these changes of climatic conditions. Soybean is one of the major grain and oil crops in the world and in China, and any change in the soybean production under future climate scenario will affect the grain- and edible oil security nationally and internationally. This paper reviewed the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, global warming, and water stress on soybean growth, and discussed the future research needs, which could provide scientific basis for realizing soybean production in the future and for implementing in advance proper policies in the context of climatic change impact on soybean production.

  16. Assessment of the Effectiveness of Global Climate Policies Using Coupled Bottom-up and Top-down Models

    OpenAIRE

    Labriet, Maryse; Drouet, Laurent; Vielle, Marc; Loulou, Richard; Kanudia, Amit; Haurie, Alain

    2015-01-01

    In order to assess climate mitigation agreements, we propose an iterative procedure linking TIAM-WORLD, a global technology-rich optimization model, and GEMINI-E3, a global general equilibrium model. The coupling methodology combines the precise representation of energy and technology choices with a coherent representation of the macro-economic impacts, especially in terms of trade effects of climate policies on energy-intensive products. In climate mitigation scenarios, drastic technology br...

  17. The application of the GWP concept in climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen LHJM; Fransen W; LLO; KNMI

    1997-01-01

    Both the scientific aspects of the Global Warming Potential concept (GWP) and its use in climate policy are analysed and discussed in this document. GWPs are indexed numbers to allow assessment of the relative contribution of emissions of long-living greenhouse gases to the enhancement of the greenh

  18. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  19. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wid

  20. Climate change policy of Germany, UK and USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. van der Wurff

    2009-01-01

    International climate change politics provides a clear example of how cultural differences, conflicts of interest and scientific assessments interact to shape environmental policy-making. This section will explore these interrelationships by analysing the role of the United States, the United Kingdo

  1. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  2. Speaking truth to power revisited: science, policy and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bray, D. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Magdeburg (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserforschung; Krueck, C. [VDI-Technologiezentrum Physikalische Technologien, Duesseldorf (Germany). Abt. Zukuenftige Technologien

    2000-07-01

    The issue of climate change from the perspectives of climate change scientists and climate policy makers is discussed using results from two survey questionnaires. Emphasis is given to the German context. Included is the self assessment of the state of the art of the climate sciences and the importance assigned to different sources of information by policy makers. Conclusions indicate that policy makers rely on a number of sources other than the direct results of science, and have assigned a greater sense of urgency to the issue of climate change than have scientists. (orig.) [German] Auf Grundlage der Ergebnisse zweier Fragebogenaktionen wird diskutiert, wie sich die Problematik von Klimaveraenderungen aus der Perspektive von Klimaforschern und aus der Perspektive von mit Klimapolitik befassten Entscheidungstraegern darstellt. Die Betonung liegt auf den Verhaeltnissen in Deutschland. Eingeschlossen ist eine Einschaetzung des aktuellen Standes der Klimaforschung durch die Wissenschaftler selbst sowie der Bedeutung, welche von politischen Entscheidungstraegern verschiedenen Informationsquellen beigemessen wird. Es zeigt sich, dass sich politische Entscheidungstraeger auf zahlreiche Informationsquellen verlassen, die nur indirekt die Resultate der Klimaforschung wiedergeben und, dass dieser Personenkreis das Problem der Klimaveraenderungen als draengender ansieht als die Wissenschaftler selbst. (orig.)

  3. Impact of Climate Change on Riverbank Erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Most. Nazneen Aktar

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. This country is highly vulnerable to climate change because of a number of hydro-geological and socio-economic factors such as geographical location, topography, extreme climate variability, high population density, poverty incidence and dependency of agriculture on climate. Presently this country has been experiencing different hydro-meteorological disastrous events that have never been experienced before. Along with other natural disasters, floods are expected to be impacted by climate change in the future. Since floods are always associated with riverbank erosion, it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on bank erosion. Riverbank erosion is also a serious hazard that directly or indirectly causes the suffering of millions of people. Beyond that, most of the old cities and important infrastructures in this country are situated on riverbanks since once upon a time waterway transportation was the main mode of travel. Moreover, people like to reside near rivers because of their dependency on river water for irrigation purposes. So a major part of the total population of this country lives near riverbanks, which frequently makes them victims of riverbank erosion. The major rivers, the Jamuna, the Ganges and the Padma, annually erode thousand hectares of floodplain land and damage or destroy infrastructures. Consequently, this natural disaster has become a major social hazard. This study aims to find out the relationship between floods and bank erosion; and hence the impact of climate changes on riverbank erosion. Since there is no record on riverbank erosion, this study attempts to measure it with the help of satellite images. It has been found in this study that climate change will play a significant role in riverbank erosion. On an average, the riverbank erosion along the major three rivers will be increased by 13% by 2050 and it will be increased by 18% by

  4. Unilateral or Reciprocal Climate Policy? Experimental Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Bernauer

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The traditional political economy account of global climate change governance directs our attention to fundamental collective action problems associated with global public goods provision, resulting from positive or negative externalities as well as freeriding. The governance architecture of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol uses the traditional approaches of international diplomacy for addressing such challenges: legally binding commitments based on principles of reciprocity and (fair cost/burden sharing via formalized carbon-budgeting. Yet, the 2015 Paris Agreement has essentially abandoned this approach, as it now operates on the basis of internationally coordinated and monitored unilateralism. On the presumption that public opinion matters for government policy, we examine how citizens view this shift in climate policy from reciprocity to unilateralism, after many years of exposure to strong reciprocity rhetoric by governments and stakeholders. To that end, we fielded a survey experiment in China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG emitter. The results show that there is, perhaps surprisingly, strong and robust public support for unilateral, non-reciprocal climate policy. To the extent China is interested in pushing ahead with ambitious and thus costly GHG reduction policies, our results suggest that China can leverage segments of public support in order to overcome domestic obstacles to GHG mitigation policies.

  5. Renewable energy investment: Policy and market impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► Feedback of decisions to the market: large companies can have an impact on prices in the market. ► Multiple uncertainties: analysis of uncertainties emanating from both markets and environment. ► Policy analysis: impact of uncertainty about the durability of feed-in tariffs. -- Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets in recent years has enhanced competition among power-generating firms facing uncertain decisions of competitors and thus uncertain prices. At the same time, promoting renewable energy has been a key ingredient in energy policy seeking to de-carbonize the energy mix. Public incentives for companies to invest in renewable technologies range from feed-in tariffs, to investment subsidies, tax credits, portfolio requirements and certificate systems. We use a real options model in discrete time with lumpy multiple investments to analyze the decisions of an electricity producer to invest into new power generating capacity, to select the type of technology and to optimize its operation under price uncertainty and with market effects. We account for both the specific characteristics of renewables and the market effects of investment decisions. The prices are determined endogenously by the supply of electricity in the market and by exogenous electricity price uncertainty. The framework is used to analyze energy policy, as well as the reaction of producers to uncertainty in the political and regulatory framework. In this way, we are able to compare different policies to foster investment into renewables and analyze their impacts on the market.

  6. Energy and climate policy in Europe; Energie- und Klimapolitik in Europa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This is a publication of the Baden-Wuerttemberg state center of political education (Landeszentrale fuer Politische Bildung Baden-Wuerttemberg) on energy policy and climate policy in Europe. It discusses the following aspects: Assured supply of energy and climate policy - incompatible goals? Climate policy and energy policy in a global system; Legitimation of the EU by successful energy policy and climate policy; Emission trading: Selling of indulgences or successful instrument? Energy policy in Europe after 1945; From a beacon of hope to a phase-out model? The future of nuclear power; The future of renewable energy sources in Europe. (orig./RHM)

  7. Development of Taiwanese government’s climate policy after the Kyoto protocol: Applying policy network theory as an analytical framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Given its limited involvement in and recognition by international organizations, Taiwan is not presently a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Kyoto Protocol. The objective of this study is to analyze how and the extent to which changes in an exogenous factor, namely the Kyoto Protocol and Post-Kyoto climate negotiations, affect and ultimately lead to the formulation of and changes in the Taiwanese government's climate policy. This study applies policy network theory to examine the development of and changes in the Taiwanese government's climate policy. The results demonstrate that international climate agreements and negotiations play a key role in the development of, changes to, and transformation of Taiwan's climate policy. Scarce evidence was found in this study to demonstrate that domestic or internal factors affect climate change policy. Despite its lack of participation in the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, Taiwan has adopted national climate change strategies, action plans, and programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, these climate policies and measures are fairly passive and aim to only conform to the minimal requirements for developing countries under international climate agreements and negotiations. This process results in inconsistent and variable climate policies, targets, and regulations. - Highlights: • Taiwan is not a signatory to the UNFCCC or its Kyoto Protocol. • International climate agreements strongly affected Taiwan's climate policy. • Little evidence was found that domestic factors affect Taiwan's climate policy. • New climate policies, regulations, and laws are formulated and implemented. • Climate policies, targets, and regulations change frequently and are inconsistent

  8. The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

    2012-04-01

    Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising

  9. Comparison of different climate regimes: the impact of broadening participation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    So-far, most climate mitigation studies look at climate policy strategies in a so-called first-best world, i.e. using the least expensive emission reduction options in all world regions and sectors. To explore the impact of limited participation of countries, we have run a set of scenarios that explore the impact of introducing a carbon tax in OECD, the BRIC countries (Brazil Russia, India and China) and the rest of the world. The results show that carbon taxes can effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, if low greenhouse gas concentration levels are to be achieved, early participation (in some form) of large developing countries is important to increase reduction potential. It should be noted that global carbon taxes (without additional assumptions) lead to relatively high costs in low-income regions. Cap-and-trade regimes have more flexibility to create a comparable distribution of costs amongst countries.

  10. Climate Impacts of Ice Nucleation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gettelman, Andrew; Liu, Xiaohong; Barahona, Donifan; Lohmann, Ulrike; Chen, Celia

    2012-01-01

    Several different ice nucleation parameterizations in two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to understand the effects of ice nucleation on the mean climate state, and the Aerosol Indirect Effects (AIE) of cirrus clouds on climate. Simulations have a range of ice microphysical states that are consistent with the spread of observations, but many simulations have higher present-day ice crystal number concentrations than in-situ observations. These different states result from different parameterizations of ice cloud nucleation processes, and feature different balances of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. Black carbon aerosols have a small (0.06 Wm(exp-2) and not statistically significant AIE when included as ice nuclei, for nucleation efficiencies within the range of laboratory measurements. Indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds occur as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic sulfur emissions with different mechanisms important in different models. In one model this is due to increases in homogeneous nucleation fraction, and in the other due to increases in heterogeneous nucleation with coated dust. The magnitude of the effect is the same however. The resulting ice AIE does not seem strongly dependent on the balance between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation. Regional effects can reach several Wm2. Indirect effects are slightly larger for those states with less homogeneous nucleation and lower ice number concentration in the base state. The total ice AIE is estimated at 0.27 +/- 0.10 Wm(exp-2) (1 sigma uncertainty). This represents a 20% offset of the simulated total shortwave AIE for ice and liquid clouds of 1.6 Wm(sup-2).

  11. Equity and the Global Policy on Climate Change: A Law and Economic Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andri Gunawan Wibisana

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The opponents of the global commitment to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs emissions seem to have shifted their arguments from the one emphasising on the issue of uncertainty to the one focusing on the economic burdens disproportionately placed on the current generation in general, and some developed countries in particular. Inevitably, the issue of equity becomes of highly importance in the recent climate policy debates. This paper attempts to analyze the implementation of equity principles, i.e. intergenerational and intragenerational equity, in the global climate policy. In doing so, it will first briefly outline some prominent economic appraisals on the impacts of climate change. Afterwards, some proposals to incorporate equity into the economic appraisals will be analyzed. Emphasizing on the concepts of equity, this paper will finally offer some recommendations for post-Kyoto negotiations.

  12. Air pollution policy in Europe: Quantifying the interaction with greenhouse gases and climate change policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper uses the computable general equilibrium model WorldScan to analyse interactions between EU's air pollution and climate change policies. Covering the entire world and seven EU countries, WorldScan simulates economic growth in a neo-classical recursive dynamic framework, including emissions and abatement of greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) and air pollutants (SO2, NOx, NH3 and PM2.5). Abatement includes the possibility of using end-of-pipe control options that remove pollutants without affecting the emission-producing activity itself. This paper analyses several variants of EU's air pollution policies for the year 2020. Air pollution policy will depend on end-of-pipe controls for not more than two thirds, thus also at least one third of the required emission reduction will come from changes in the use of energy through efficiency improvements, fuel switching and other structural changes in the economy. Greenhouse gas emissions thereby decrease, which renders climate change policies less costly. Our results show that carbon prices will fall, and may even drop to zero when the EU agrees on a more stringent air pollution policy. - Highlights: • This paper models bottom-up emission control in top-down CGE model. • We analyse interactions between air pollution and climate policies in Europe. • Structural changes induced by stringent air policies may make EU-ETS market obsolete

  13. The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey

    2015-01-01

    Simple Summary Climate change is probably the most important environmental issue of our time. Raising animals for food contributes to the production of greenhouse gases implicated in the global warming that is causing climate change. To combat this ecological disaster, a number of mitigation strategies involving changes to agricultural practices have been proposed. However, some of these changes will impact the welfare of farmed animals. This paper reviews selected climate change mitigation strategies and explains how different approaches could have negative or positive effects. Abstract The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture. PMID:26479240

  14. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change: Policy Perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtnay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria

    2011-10-15

    Agriculture has a crucial role to play in meeting development goals – from demand for food as populations grow and become wealthier to maintaining essential ecosystem services, diverse livelihoods, and economic development. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has resulted in a sector that is not adequately prepared for the challenges of climate change. Yet for most developing countries, agriculture has been one of the earliest sectors to be affected by climate change, with negative impacts already apparent and more serious consequences projected for the future. There is increasing recognition by both the climate change and agricultural development communities that agriculture needs to be part of a new global climate change deal. 'No agriculture, no deal' is a clear signal from concerned stakeholders that agriculture will be a key feature of climate change negotiations, both for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting vulnerable populations and economies. There has been a long history of assessments of the impact of climate change on agriculture, and recent international movements to press toward effective action are noteworthy. This Policy Perspectives paper summarises the results from a recent study led by the International Institute for Environment and Development, the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, with national teams in five developing countries. The principal conclusions inform policy and planning by addressing the following issues: 1. Framing and methodological development in the assessment of climate adaptation. 2. Assessment of current vulnerabilities, and potential future impacts and costs of adaptation. 3. Identification of strategies and measures considered priorities across regions and types of agriculture in 'pathways of adaptation'.

  15. Economic perspectives on the impact of climate variability and change: A summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A summary is presented of a collection of papers on the economic methodologies applicable to studies of the impact of global climate variability and change. The research was sponsored by the Canadian Climate program and was conducted as part of a project investigating the potential impacts on various sectors of the Canadian economy of climate warming due to the greenhouse effect. Topics of the papers include microeconomic analysis, benefit/cost analysis, input-output analysis, policy options regarding water levels in the Great Lakes, the scenario approach to assessing socio-economic sensitivities to climate change in the agri-food sector, and analysis of weather impacts. Several analytical tools are seen to be readily applicable to economic analyses of the effects of climate change, and issues of future water supply and demand are seen as central to climate impact assessment, and of particular concern to Canada

  16. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  17. Point Climat no. 22 'Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is laying the initial foundations for a European agricultural climate policy'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Briefs' presents, in a few pages, hot topics in climate change policy. This issue addresses the following points: The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has had a very small climate component since 1992. The recent inclusion of green payments and the climate risk management tools proposed for the CAP for the period beyond 2013 illustrate the European Commission's willingness to expand this climate component. Furthermore, there is little mention of the agricultural sector in the tools rolled out by the European climate policy, particularly those derived from the 2009 'Climate and Energy' Package. Therefore, even if this autumn's parliamentary debate results in the reform proposals being diluted, the post-2013 CAP could nevertheless become a principal tool for a common EU climate policy in the agricultural sector

  18. China's climate-change policy 1988-2011: From zero to hero?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stensdal, Iselin

    2012-11-01

    This report describes the evolution of China's domestic climate-change policy over the period 1988-2011, using the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to explore the policy change. Policy development has been gradual, with the most notable change occurring in 2007, when the National Climate Change Programme elevated climate change to a national policy issue. Within the climate-change policy subsystem there emerged an advocacy coalition - the Climate Change Advocacy Coalition - urging that climate change should be taken into consideration in relevant policies. The ACF points to socioeconomic development and the Climate Change Advocacy Coalition's policy-oriented learning as explanations for the development of climate-change policy in China.(auth)

  19. Impact of Wave Dragon on Wave Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Tedd, James; Kramer, Morten; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2006-01-01

    This report is an advisory paper for use in determining the wave dragon effects on hydrography, by considering the effect on the wave climate in the region of a wave dragon. This is to be used in the impact assessment for the Wave Dragon pre-commercial demonstrator.

  20. Impact of Wave Dragon on Wave Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Tedd, James; Kramer, Morten;

    This report is an advisory paper for use in determining the wave dragon effects on hydrography, by considering the effect on the wave climate in the region of a wave dragon. This is to be used in the impact assessment for the Wave Dragon pre-commercial demonstrator....

  1. Climatic impacts of anthropogenic aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iversen, T. [Oslo Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. Anthropogenic production of aerosols is mainly connected with combustion of fossil fuel. Measured by particulate mass, the anthropogenic sulphate production is the dominating source of aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere. Particles emitted in mechanical processes, fly ash etc. are less important because of their shorter atmospheric residence time. Possible climatological effects of anthropogenic aerosols are usually classified in two groups: direct and indirect. Direct effects are alterations of the radiative heating budget due to the aerosol particles in clear air. Indirect effects involve the interaction between particles and cloud processes. A simplified one-layer radiation model gave cooling in the most polluted mid-latitude areas and heating due to soot absorption in the Arctic. This differential trend in heating rates may have significant effects on atmospheric meridional circulations, which is important for the atmosphere as a thermodynamic system. Recently the description of sulphur chemistry in the hemispheric scale dispersion model has been improved and will be used in a model for Mie scattering and absorption

  2. Sea Change: US Climate Policy Prospects under the Obama Administration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roman, Mikael (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (Sweden)); Carson, Marcus (Dept. of Sociology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)). e-mail: mikael.roman@sei.se

    2009-03-15

    This report has been produced for the Swedish Government's Sustainability Commission in preparation for the Swedish EU Presidency during the second half of 2009, and consequent Swedish leadership of the EU delegation in the COP-15 negotiations in Copenhagen. The central task of the report is to provide an overview of the key factors that will condition the near-term development of United States climate policy, with a view to the eventual likelihood of the US signing and ratifying a new global agreement in the upcoming negotiations on climate change. While we take note of the importance of factors external to US politics, such as potential developments in bilateral discussions with China and other major greenhouse gas emitters, our analysis focuses primarily on factors that influence US domestic policy dynamics. To accomplish that task, the subsequent pages address three main questions. First, what are the stated goals and contours of the Obama Administration's policies regarding climate change? Second, what are the opportunities and obstacles connected with realizing this agenda - from negotiating and deciding, then effectively implementing it - and via which pathways of action are we likely to see important initiatives being moved? Finally, what are the implications for the negotiations in Copenhagen and beyond? We conclude by identifying a number of important considerations that should be taken into account in preparations for the Swedish EU Presidency and the climate negotiations in Copenhagen

  3. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  4. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  5. Unpacking the impacts of 'participatory' forestry policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mutune, Jane Mutheu; Lund, Jens Friis

    2016-01-01

    We evaluate the livelihoods of member and non-members of Community Forestry Associations under Kenya's participatory forest management (PFM) programme. We use propensity score matching of households based on recall based data from before implementation of PFM from 286 households and comparison...... of current incomes (2012), as well as review of records and interviews. Results reveal that members have higher total and forest-related incomes than non-members and indicate that impacts derive from labour and market opportunities supported by donor institutions, more than from differential access to forest....... Further, we conclude that impact evaluations must examine both outcomes and participatory forestry to provide meaningful policy evidence....

  6. Providing Climate Policy Makers With a Strong Scientific Base (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struzik, E.

    2009-12-01

    Scientists can and should inform public policy decisions in the Arctic. But the pace of climate change in the polar world has been occurring far more quickly than most scientists have been able to predict. This creates problems for decision-makers who recognize that difficult management decisions have to be made in matters pertaining to wildlife management, cultural integrity and economic development. With sea ice melting, glaciers receding, permafrost thawing, forest fires intensifying, and disease and invasive species rapidly moving north, the challenge for scientists to provide climate policy makers with a strong scientific base has been daunting. Clashing as this data sometimes does with the “traditional knowledge” of indigenous peoples in the north, it can also become very political. As a result the need to effectively communicate complex data is more imperative now than ever before. Here, the author describes how the work of scientists can often be misinterpreted or exploited in ways that were not intended. Examples include the inappropriate use of scientific data in decision-making on polar bears, caribou and other wildlife populations; the use of scientific data to debunk the fact that greenhouse gases are driving climate change, and the use of scientific data to position one scientist against another when there is no inherent conflict. This work will highlight the need for climate policy makers to increase support for scientists working in the Arctic, as well as illustrate why it is important to find new and more effective ways of communicating scientific data. Strategies that might be considered by granting agencies, scientists and climate policy decision-makers will also be discussed.

  7. EU and international policies for hydrometeorological risks:Operational aspects and link to climate action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Philippe QUEVAUVILLER; Marco GEMMER

    2015-01-01

    Changes in hydrometeorological characteristics and risks have been observed and are projected to increase under climate change. These considerations are scientifically well studied and led to the development of a complex policy framework for adaptation and mitigation for hydrometeorological risks. Awareness for policy actions is growing worldwide but no legal framework is in place to tackle climate change impacts on water at a global scale. With the example of international frameworks and the legislation on EU-level, this article elaborates that hydrometeorological risks are not considered in the framework of one single policy. However, various policy instruments are directly or indirectly considering these risks at different operational levels. It is discussed that a tailor-made framework for hydrometeorological risks would improve coordination at international or national level. A major drawback for a single operational framework is that hydrometeorological risks are scientifically tackled in two large communities:the disaster risk reduction community and the climate change adaptation community, both of which are bound to different research and operational funding budgets. In future, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will need been seen as a complementary set of actions that requires collaboration.

  8. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  9. Impact of climate change and agriculture adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author outlines and discusses the various impacts climate change can have on agriculture, notably due to the increase of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, to temperature increase, to the modification of rainfalls, and therefore to differences in evaporation, drainage, run-off, cloud cover. He notably discusses the impact in terms of photosynthesis, of crop production in tempered or tropical regions. He also discusses the impact of extreme events (notably frost), comments how recent evolutions noticed by farmers could prefigure the future. He addresses the issue of adaptation which could mean a change of local practices or a displacement of activities

  10. An abrupt stochastic damage function to analyse climate policy benefits

    OpenAIRE

    Ha-Duong, Minh; Dumas, Patrice

    2004-01-01

    Chapter in Alain Haurie and Laurent Viguier (eds.) 2005, The coupling of climate and economic dynamics, Essays on Integrated Assessment. Series: Advances in Global Change Research, Vol. 22 , Kluwerhttp://www.centre-cired.fr/perso/haduong/files/Dumas.ea-2004-AbruptStochasticDamage.pdf This paper studies uncertainty about the non-linearity of climate change impact. The DIAM 2.3 model is used to compute the sensitivity of optimal CO2 emissions paths with respect to damage function parameters....

  11. Climate change and radical energy innovation: the policy issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Keith

    2009-01-15

    How can we sustain global economic performance while reducing and perhaps eliminating climate impacts? This dual objective ultimately requires the innovation of radically new low- or zero-emitting energy technologies. But what is involved in such innovation, and why and how should governments support it? What are the implications for innovation policy makers? The paper discusses the nature of the innovation challenge of climate change, develops a framework for analyzing modes of innovation, applies the framework to energy technologies and analyses policies for energy innovation. The overall argument is that we are 'locked in' to an unsustainable but large-scale hydrocarbon energy system. The innovation problem is to develop alternatives to this system as a whole. Yet despite widespread environmental innovation efforts and incentives, these are not yet addressing the innovation challenge on an adequate scale. The analytical framework sees technologies not as single techniques but as multi-faceted technological 'regimes'. Technological regimes comprise production systems and methods, scientific and engineering knowledge organization, infrastructures, and social patterns of technology use. We live not with individual energy technologies but with a complex hydrocarbon regime. Against this background we can identify three modes of innovation, with very different characteristics. They are; Incremental innovations - upgrades to existing technologies, producing innovation within existing technological regimes, such as increases in the capabilities and speeds of microprocessors; Disruptive innovations - new methods of performing existing technical functions, changing how things are done, but not changing the overall regime, such as the shift from film to digital imaging; Radical innovations - technological regime shifts, involving wholly new technical functions, new knowledge bases, and new organizational forms, such as the transition from steam power

  12. Expecting the Unexpected Macroeconomic Volatility and Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gajendra S. Chauhan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Analysts have been comparing a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy, to estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy. Both scenarios required assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth, technical change and non-climate policies like taxes. Approach: The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of unanticipated macroeconomic shocks to growth in developing countries or a global financial crisis on the performance of three climate policy regimes: A globally-harmonized carbon tax; a global cap and trade system and the McKibbin-Wilcoxen hybrid. The G-cubed dynamic general equilibrium model has been used to explore how the shocks would affect emissions, prices, incomes and wealth under each regime. Results: It has been found that a global cap and trade regime will significantly change the way growth shocks will otherwise be transmitted between regions while price-based systems such as a global carbon tax or a hybrid policy will not. Moreover, in case of a financial meltdown, a price based system will enable significant emissions reductions at low economic cost whereas a quantity target base system will lead to loss of the opportunity for low cost emission reduction because the target is fixed. Conclusion: The results of this study have explored these issues by examining the effects of shocks that have actually occurred in the past decade: A surprising surge of economic growth in developing countries and a global financial crisis. Quantity based approaches such as a global permit trading regime tend to buffer some kinds of macro-economic shocks: Carbon prices rise and fall with the business cycle. However, price-based approaches such as a global carbon tax or a McKibbin Wilcoxen Hybrid would provide stronger firewalls to prevent adverse events in one carbon market from causing a collapse of the global system.

  13. Ancillary benefits of climate policy in a small open economy: The case of Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is increasingly recognised that GHG reduction policies can have important ancillary benefits in the form of positive local and regional environmental impacts. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the domestic ancillary pollution benefits of climate policy in Sweden, and investigate how these are affected by different climate policy designs. The latter differ primarily in terms of how the country chooses to meet a specific target and where the necessary emission reductions take place. The analysis relies on simulations within the energy system optimisation model TIMES-Sweden, and focuses on four non-GHG pollutants: Nitrogen Oxides (NOX), Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC), inhalable particles (PM2.5), and Sulphur dioxide (SO2). The simulations permit detailed assessments of the respective technology and fuel choices that underlie any net changes in the estimated ancillary effects. The results indicate that the ancillary benefits constitute a far from insignificant share of total system costs, and this share appears to be highest in the scenarios that entail the largest emission reductions domestically. This result reflects the fact that carbon dioxide emission reductions abroad also implies a lost opportunity of achieving substantial domestic welfare gain from the reductions of regional and local environmental pollutants. - Highlights: → We estimate the domestic ancillary pollution benefits of climate policy in Sweden. → These constitute a sizeable share of total system costs. → The ancillary benefits are highest in the policy scenarios that entail the largest emission reductions domestically.

  14. Climate change and energy policies, coal and coalmine methane in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Chinese government has made many energy policies on coal, and coalmine methane (CMM) use. However, not all of these policies have effects or positive impacts. For example, it has been quite a few years since the national government made policies to encourage coalmine methane power to be sold to the grid. Practice showed that not any kilowatt of electricity was sold from a coalmine methane power plant to the grid in Sichuan and Guizhou Provinces as of December 2008. The objectives of this paper are to review and evaluate the Chinese government energy and climate policies that are related to coal and coalmine methane, analyze relevant policy barriers, and make recommendations to overcome these barriers and avoid policy failures. This paper provides the literature review, challenges, resources, policies and other updated information on China's CMM recovery and utilization. The paper concludes that China needs to further reform its energy and environment management system, engage provincial governments in CMM capture and use activities, and provide incentives to qualified engineers and skilled workers to work in remote coal mining areas. This paper transfers key messages to policy makers for them to make better CMM capture and use policies. (author)

  15. Climate change and energy policies, coal and coalmine methane in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Chinese government has made many energy policies on coal, and coalmine methane (CMM) use. However, not all of these policies have effects or positive impacts. For example, it has been quite a few years since the national government made policies to encourage coalmine methane power to be sold to the grid. Practice showed that not any kilowatt of electricity was sold from a coalmine methane power plant to the grid in Sichuan and Guizhou Provinces as of December 2008. The objectives of this paper are to review and evaluate the Chinese government energy and climate policies that are related to coal and coalmine methane, analyze relevant policy barriers, and make recommendations to overcome these barriers and avoid policy failures. This paper provides the literature review, challenges, resources, policies and other updated information on China's CMM recovery and utilization. The paper concludes that China needs to further reform its energy and environment management system, engage provincial governments in CMM capture and use activities, and provide incentives to qualified engineers and skilled workers to work in remote coal mining areas. This paper transfers key messages to policy makers for them to make better CMM capture and use policies.

  16. Climate for Collaboration: Analysis of US and EU Lessons and Opportunities in Energy and Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vita, A.; de Connick, H.; McLaren, J.; Cochran, J.

    2009-11-01

    A deepening of cooperation between the United States and the European Union requires mutual trust, and understanding of current policies, challenges and successes. Through providing such understanding among policymakers, industry and other stakeholders in both economies, opportunities for transatlantic cooperation on climate change and energy policy emerge. This paper sets out by discussing the environmental, legislative, and economic contexts of the EU and US as related to climate. This context is essential to understanding how cap-and-trade, renewable energy and sustainable transportation policies have taken shape in the EU and the US, as described in Chapter 3.1. For each of these policies, a barrier analysis and discussion is provided. Chapter 4 builds off this improved understanding to listobservations and possible lessons learned. The paper concludes with recommendations on topics where EU and US interests align, and where further cooperation could prove beneficial.

  17. Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Aamaas

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the context of climate change, emissions of different species (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane are not directly comparable since they have different radiative efficiencies and lifetimes. Since comparisons via detailed climate models are computationally expensive and complex, emission metrics were developed to allow a simple and straightforward comparison of the estimated climate impacts of emissions of different species. Emission metrics are not unique and variety of different emission metrics has been proposed, with key choices being the climate impacts and time horizon to use for comparisons. In this paper, we present analytical expressions and describe how to calculate common emission metrics for different species. We include the climate metrics radiative forcing, integrated radiative forcing, temperature change and integrated temperature change in both absolute form and normalised to a reference gas. We consider pulse emissions, sustained emissions and emission scenarios. The species are separated into three types: CO2 which has a complex decay over time, species with a simple exponential decay, and ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOC which indirectly effect climate via various chemical interactions. We also discuss deriving Impulse Response Functions, radiative efficiency, regional dependencies, consistency within and between metrics and uncertainties. We perform various applications to highlight key applications of emission metrics, which show that emissions of CO2 are important regardless of what metric and time horizon is used, but that the importance of short lived climate forcers varies greatly depending on the metric choices made. Further, the ranking of countries by emissions changes very little with different metrics despite large differences in metric values, except for the shortest time horizons (GWP20.

  18. Air pollution policies in Europe: efficiency gains from integrating climate effects with damage costs to health and crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emissions of air pollutants cause damage to health and crops, but several air pollutants also have an effect on climate through radiative forcing. We investigate efficiency gains achieved by integrating climate impacts of air pollutants into air quality strategies for the EU region. The pollutants included in this study are SO2, NH3, VOC, CO, NOx, black carbon, organic carbon, PM2.5, and CH4. We illustrate the relative importance of climate change effects compared to damage to health and crops, as well as monetary gains of including climate change contributions. The analysis considers marginal abatement costs and compares air quality and climate damage in Euros. We optimize abatement policies with respect to both climate and health impacts, which imply implementing all measures that yield a net benefit. The efficiency gains of the integrated policy are in the order of 2.5 billion Euros, compared to optimal abatement based on health and crop damage only, justifying increased abatement efforts of close to 50%. Climate effect of methane is the single most important factor. If climate change is considered on a 20- instead of a 100-year time-scale, the efficiency gain almost doubles. Our results indicate that air pollution policies should be supplemented with climate damage considerations.

  19. A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Papathoma-Köhle

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014, suggests that an important increase in frequency and magnitude of hazardous processes related to climate change is to be expected at the global scale. Consequently, it is necessary to improve the level of preparedness and the level of public awareness, to fill institutional gaps, and to improve territorial planning in order to reduce the potentially disastrous impact of natural hazards related to climate change. This paper mainly presents a new framework for risk assessment and mapping which enables countries with limited data sources to assess their risk to climate change related hazards at the local level, in order to reduce potential costs, to develop risk reduction strategies, to harmonize their preparedness efforts with neighboring countries and to deal with trans-boundary risk. The methodology is based on the European Commission’s “Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management” (2010 and considers local restrictions, such as a lack of documentation of historic disastrous events, spatial and other relevant data, offering alternative options for risk assessment, and the production of risk maps. The methodology is based on event tree analysis. It was developed within the European project SEERISK and adapted for a number of climate change-related hazards including floods, heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Additionally, the framework offers the possibility for risk assessment under different future scenarios. The implications for climate change adaptation policy are discussed.

  20. Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapin, F Stuart; Lovecraft, Amy L; Zavaleta, Erika S; Nelson, Joanna; Robards, Martin D; Kofinas, Gary P; Trainor, Sarah F; Peterson, Garry D; Huntington, Henry P; Naylor, Rosamond L

    2006-11-01

    Human activities are altering many factors that determine the fundamental properties of ecological and social systems. Is sustainability a realistic goal in a world in which many key process controls are directionally changing? To address this issue, we integrate several disparate sources of theory to address sustainability in directionally changing social-ecological systems, apply this framework to climate-warming impacts in Interior Alaska, and describe a suite of policy strategies that emerge from these analyses. Climate warming in Interior Alaska has profoundly affected factors that influence landscape processes (climate regulation and disturbance spread) and natural hazards, but has only indirectly influenced ecosystem goods such as food, water, and wood that receive most management attention. Warming has reduced cultural services provided by ecosystems, leading to some of the few institutional responses that directly address the causes of climate warming, e.g., indigenous initiatives to the Arctic Council. Four broad policy strategies emerge: (i) enhancing human adaptability through learning and innovation in the context of changes occurring at multiple scales; (ii) increasing resilience by strengthening negative (stabilizing) feedbacks that buffer the system from change and increasing options for adaptation through biological, cultural, and economic diversity; (iii) reducing vulnerability by strengthening institutions that link the high-latitude impacts of climate warming to their low-latitude causes; and (iv) facilitating transformation to new, potentially more beneficial states by taking advantage of opportunities created by crisis. Each strategy provides societal benefits, and we suggest that all of them be pursued simultaneously. PMID:17008403

  1. Announcing climate policy. Can a green paradox arise without scarcity?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smulders, Sjak [Tilburg Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Economics and CentER; Tsur, Yacov [Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Rehovot (Israel). Dept. of Agricultural Economics and Management; Zemel, Amos [Ben Gurion Univ. of the Negev, Sede Boker (Israel). Dept. of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics

    2010-12-15

    Unintended consequences of a pre-announced climate policy have been studied in a variety of situations. We show that early announcement of a carbon tax gives rise to a ''Green-Paradox,'' in that it increases polluting emissions in the interim period (between announcement and actual implementation), irrespective of the scarcity of fossil fuels. The phenomenon holds both when the announced implementation date is taken as a credible threat and when households are skeptical about the (political) will or capability of the government to implement the policy as announced. The paradoxical outcome is driven by consumptionsaving tradeoffs facing households who seek to smooth consumption over time. (orig.)

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    OpenAIRE

    T.M. CORNEA; Dima, M.; Roca, D.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ...

  3. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B.; Ponater, M. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  4. Climate change and public health policy: translating the science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

    2014-01-01

    Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character. PMID:24452252

  5. A paleolimmological perspective of three karstic lake (taravilla, Zonar and Estanya): Sedimentological and hydrogeological evolution climate and human impact and implications for management and restoration policies; Una vision paleolimnologica de tres lagos karsticos (Zonar, Estanya y Taravilla): evolucion sedimentaria y paleohidrologica, clima e impacto humano e implicaciones para la gestion y conservacion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valero Garces, B.; Morellon, M.; Martin Puertas, C.; Moreno, A.; Corella, P.; Gonzalez Samperiz, P.; Rico, M.; Mata, P.; Navas, A.

    2009-07-01

    A paleolimnological perspective of three Spanish karstic lakes (Taravilla, Zonar and Estanya): sedimentological and hydrological evolution, climate and human impact and implications for management and restoration policies. We synthesize the available, published paleolimnological information based on sediment core analyses from three Spanish karstic lakes: Taravilla in the Iberian Range (Guadalajara province), Estanya in the Pre-Prepirinean Range (Huesca province) and Zonar in the Guadalquivir Basin (Cordoba province). The time span ranges from the last 21000 years in Estanya, about 4000 years in Zonar and 2000 years in Taravilla. The multidisciplinary study shows large depositional changes in the lakes mostly related to water level and hydrochemical fluctuations and changes in the watershed. Climate change has been the main forcing to explain the hydrological changes in the lakes. Human impact in the watershed and the lakes has been documented since Iberian-Roman times and it has increased since the Medieval Ages with a much higher sediment delivery to the lakes. Lake sediment sequences contain detailed archives of global changes in the past, needed to understand the natural climate variability and the dynamics of the lacustrine systems. These data will help to implement conservation and restoration policies of aquatic ecosystems and also strategies for adaptation to future climate changes. (Author) 72 refs.

  6. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N;

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...

  7. European Climate Change Programme. Working Group II. Impacts and Adaptation. Urban Planning and Construction. Sectoral Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adaptation is a new policy area for the European Climate Change Policy. The Impacts and Adaptation Workgroup has been set up as part of European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II). The main objective of the workgroup is to explore options to improve Europe's resilience to climate change impacts, to encourage the integration of climate change adaptation into other policy areas at the European, national, regional and local level and to define the role of EU-wide policies complementing action by Member States. The aim of this initial programme of work is to identify good practice in the development of adaptation policy and foster learning from different sectoral experiences and explore a possible EU role in adaptation policies. The Commission has led a series of 10 sectoral meetings looking at adaptation issues for different sectors. One of these meetings looked at the impacts on urban planning and infrastructure in particular. This report summarises the state of play in the urban planning sector in relation to adaptation to climate change on the basis of the information gathered at the stakeholder meeting. Some of the other stakeholder meetings, such as the meeting on human health, have a strong connection with the urban planning agenda. Therefore, some actions in the sector report on adaptation and human health relate to urban planning and infrastructure considerations

  8. ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocke, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented

  9. Energy-climate-forest modelling for integrated policy analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Siljander, Riikka

    2016-01-01

    Increased concern about global warming has led to an intensified search for new and efficient means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). So far, forests have been part of climate policies mainly as a source of bioenergy which can substitute for fossil fuels. However, forests constitute also significant sinks and sources of carbon dioxide, which affect the atmospheric carbon balance. This has led to an ongoing debate on whether and how the changes in forest carbon stocks should be taken i...

  10. Investments and financial flows induced by climate mitigation policies

    OpenAIRE

    Bastianin, Andrea; Favero, Alice; Massetti, Emanuele

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we use the hybrid integrated model WITCH to quantify and analyze the investments and financial flows stimulated by a climate policy to stabilize Greenhouse Gases concentrations at 550ppm CO2-eq at the end of the century. We focus on investments to decarbonize the power sector and on investments in knowledge creation. We examine the financial flows associated with the carbon market and the implications for the international trade of oil. Criticalities in investment requirements w...

  11. Climate policies between carbon prices, oil rents and urban dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This thesis investigates the effects of constraints imposed on economic interactions by limitations due to natural resources, among which oil and urban land play a crucial role in the context of climate change. These dimensions, often neglected in existing analyses, have an ambiguous effect since they suggest both the risk of enhanced costs if carbon limitations reinforce the sub-optimalities caused by pre-existing constraints, but also, conversely, the possibility of co-benefits if the climate policy helps to correct some pre-existing imperfections of socio-economic trajectories. To investigate this issue, an innovative modeling framework of the energy-economy interactions is elaborated that embarks the specificities of the deployment of oil production capacities and the issues related to the spatial organization in urban areas. We demonstrate that, beyond the carbon price, the costs of climate policy essentially depend on the sequencing of complementary measures, with a crucial role of spatial policy designed to control transport-related emissions through mobility. (author)

  12. Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.

    2014-03-01

    For policy applications, such as for the Kyoto Protocol, the climate-change contributions of different greenhouse gases are usually quantified through their global warming potentials. They are calculated based on the cumulative radiative forcing resulting from a pulse emission of a gas over a specified time period. However, these calculations are not explicitly linked to an assessment of ultimate climate-change impacts. A new metric, the climate-change impact potential (CCIP), is presented here that is based on explicitly defining the climate-change perturbations that lead to three different kinds of climate-change impacts. These kinds of impacts are: (1) those related directly to temperature increases; (2) those related to the rate of warming; and (3) those related to cumulative warming. From those definitions, a quantitative assessment of the importance of pulse emissions of each gas is developed, with each kind of impact assigned equal weight for an overall impact assessment. Total impacts are calculated under the RCP6 concentration pathway as a base case. The relevant climate-change impact potentials are then calculated as the marginal increase of those impacts over 100 years through the emission of an additional unit of each gas in 2010. These calculations are demonstrated for CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. Compared with global warming potentials, climate-change impact potentials would increase the importance of pulse emissions of long-lived nitrous oxide and reduce the importance of short-lived methane.

  13. Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For policy applications, such as for the Kyoto Protocol, the climate-change contributions of different greenhouse gases are usually quantified through their global warming potentials. They are calculated based on the cumulative radiative forcing resulting from a pulse emission of a gas over a specified time period. However, these calculations are not explicitly linked to an assessment of ultimate climate-change impacts. A new metric, the climate-change impact potential (CCIP), is presented here that is based on explicitly defining the climate-change perturbations that lead to three different kinds of climate-change impacts. These kinds of impacts are: (1) those related directly to temperature increases; (2) those related to the rate of warming; and (3) those related to cumulative warming. From those definitions, a quantitative assessment of the importance of pulse emissions of each gas is developed, with each kind of impact assigned equal weight for an overall impact assessment. Total impacts are calculated under the RCP6 concentration pathway as a base case. The relevant climate-change impact potentials are then calculated as the marginal increase of those impacts over 100 years through the emission of an additional unit of each gas in 2010. These calculations are demonstrated for CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. Compared with global warming potentials, climate-change impact potentials would increase the importance of pulse emissions of long-lived nitrous oxide and reduce the importance of short-lived methane. (paper)

  14. Climate Change Scientific Assessment and Policy Analysis. Scientific Assessment of Solar Induced Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The programme Scientific Assessment and Policy Analysis is commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning, and the Environment (VROM) and has the following objectives: Collection and evaluation of relevant scientific information for policy development and decision-making in the field of climate change; Analysis of resolutions and decisions in the framework of international climate negotiations and their implications. The programme is concerned with analyses and assessments intended for a balanced evaluation of the state of the art knowledge for underpinning policy choices. These analyses and assessment activities are carried out within several months to about a year, depending on the complexity and the urgency of the policy issue. Assessment teams organised to handle the various topics consist of the best Dutch experts in their fields. Teams work on incidental and additionally financed activities, as opposed to the regular, structurally financed activities of the climate research consortium. The work should reflect the current state of science on the relevant topic. In this report an assessment on the following topics is presented: (1) Reconstructions of solar variability, especially with respect to those parameters which are relevant for climate change; (2) Reconstructions of proxies of solar variability, e.g. cosmogenic isotopes; (3) Reconstructions of global as well as regional climate, with respect to temperature, precipitation and circulation; (4) Physical understanding of the mechanisms which play a role in the solar terrestrial link. We focus on the Holocene with emphasis on the last centuries because of data availability, to avoid confusing climate responses to orbital changes with those due to solar activity and because of the relevance for human induced climate change as compared to the role of the variable sun in the 20th century

  15. Climate Change Impacts on the Congo Basin Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Franssen, W.; Jans, W.W.P.; Kruijt, B.; Supit, I.

    2012-01-01

    This report presents analyses of climate change impacts in the Congo Basin on water for agriculture and hydropower, forest ecosystem functioning and carbon storage and impacts of climate variability and change on future economic development. To quantify the impacts of future climate we developed a m

  16. The New Phase of the Global Policy on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Calanter

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, a phenomenon that occurs worldwide, is one of the great challenges of our times.The scientific community has repeatedly drawn policy makers attention to the imperative need to adopt ofpreventive, mitigation and adaptation measures to what constitutes a threat to the normal course of life onEarth. Adoption and entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, with its ratification by Russia, in February 2005represented a major step forward in the global struggle against climate change. In this moment, however, theconclusion in 2012 of the commitment period for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases provided by theProtocol, and the brokenness of this period, put in front of the international community the need for furtherpolicy measures to prevent and combating climate change and its effects.

  17. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  18. Land-use change and global climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO2. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  19. Confluence of climate change policies and international trade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vickery, R.E. Jr.

    1997-12-31

    The paper summarizes market information on energy conservation and renewable energy industries in the U.S., and highlights activities of the International Trade Administration. International treaties agreements on environmental issues are examined with respect to their influence on U.S. trade promotion and job creation. A sectoral analysis of the economic impact of greenhouse gas emissions reductions on industries is very briefly summarized. Finally, the need for a climate change treaty in spite of possible adverse impacts is discussed. 1 tab.

  20. Chinas carbon-intensity target: climate actors and policy developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stensdal, Iselin

    2012-11-01

    China has become the largest GHG emitting country, and announced in 2009 its first policy objective measured in carbon emissions. The carbon-intensity target is to reduce the carbon intensity by 40-45 % by 2020 compared to 200 levels. Since then there has been further policy developments in order to attain the reduction carbon intensity and steer China towards a low-carbon development. The 12th 5-year plan (2011-2015) is strong on incentives for reducing China's carbon intensity such as energy conservation measures and the establishment of new market-based mechanisms. While the central government forms the policies, the implementation is dependent on a range of actors. In addition to the climate change bureaucracy, the positive forces and actors on GHG mitigation is presented. All in all, there are promising developments in China for the years to come.(auth)

  1. Free Markets, Property Rights and Climate Change: How to Privatize Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graham Dawson

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The goal has been to devise a strategy that protects as much as possible the rights and liberties of all agents, both users of fossil fuels and people whose livelihoods and territories are at risk if the anthropogenic global warming (AGW hypothesis is true. To achieve this goal the standard climate policy instruments, taxes and emissions trading, should be discontinued. There are weaknesses in the theoretical perspectives used to justify these policy instruments and climate science cannot provide the knowledge that would be needed to justify their implementation. In their place I propose a privatised policy, based on Austrian and libertarian frameworks of thought, which share an interpretation of climate change as a putative interpersonal conflict rather than market failure. The use of fossil fuels, like any other economic activity, should be subject to side-constraints designed to avoid the infringement of other people’s property rights. Tort litigation on the basis of strict liability would protect these rights, insofar as they need protecting. By providing a public arena for the competitive testing of scientific hypotheses concerning climate change, such litigation would also promote the public understanding and even the advancement of climate science.

  2. How much can disaster and climate science contribute to loss and damage mechanisms in international climate policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Allen, Simon; Eicken, Hajo; Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2015-04-01

    As the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently has shown, there is increasing evidence of observed impacts of climate change on natural and human systems. Some of these impacts are negative and result in damage and loss of lives and assets. In international climate policy negotiations under the UNFCCC the discussions on loss and damage have gained significant traction during the past negotiation rounds. At COP 19 the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) was created as an institutional arrangement to address this issue. Thereby, loss and damage (L&D) are typically defined as the residual damage and loss that occur beyond mitigation and adaptation efforts. This implies that effective mitigation and adaptation policy can substantially reduce L&D. While there is wide agreement that knowledge and understanding needs to be strengthened on how L&D due to climate change affects countries, in particular highly vulnerable countries and populations, there is still substantial disagreement on several aspects. In fact, after COP20 in Lima a number of options are on the table, including whether L&D should be located under the adaptation framework or form a separate institutional arrangement, or whether a compensation regime should be established to support developing countries. Similarly, the scientific framework for a clear L&D concept, its application in real-world cases, and implications for international climate policy, in particular with respect to questions of responsibility, liability, compensation and financing, is still evolving. Earlier proposals, for instance, have included a threshold concept, with payments released upon crossing of certain thresholds of climate (related) parameters, similar to insurance procedures. The threshold would be defined as a departure of the parameter from baseline conditions, for instance a rainfall event that is more intense than a certain baseline based threshold. Further

  3. Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okoro, Stanley U.; Schickhoff, Udo; Boehner, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe A.; Huth, Neil

    2016-04-01

    Palm oil production has increased in recent decades and is estimated to increase further. The optimal role of palm oil production, however, is controversial because of resource conflicts with alternative land uses. Local conditions and climate change affect resource competition and the desirability of palm oil production. Based on this, crop yield simulations using different climate model output under different climate scenarios could be important tool in addressing the problem of uncertainty quantification among different climate model outputs. Previous studies on this region have focused mostly on single experimental fields, not considering variations in Agro-Ecological Zones, climatic conditions, varieties and management practices and, in most cases not extending to various IPCC climate scenarios and were mostly based on single climate model output. Furthermore, the uncertainty quantification of the climate- impact model has rarely been investigated on this region. To this end we use the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the regional climate impact on oil palm yield over the Nigerian Niger Delta. We also examine whether the use of crop yield model output ensemble reduces the uncertainty rather than the use of climate model output ensemble. The results could serve as a baseline for policy makers in this region in understanding the interaction between potentials of energy crop production of the region as well as its food security and other negative feedbacks that could be associated with bioenergy from oil palm. Keywords: Climate Change, Climate impacts, Land use and Crop yields.

  4. Climate change policy instruments in a least regrets context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenstra, W.J.; Bonney, M. [Ministry of Housing, The Hague (Netherlands). Spatial Planning and Environment

    1995-12-31

    The Dutch CO{sub 2} target - which was set down in the National Environmental Policy Plan Plus (NMP-plus) and sent to Parliament in 1990 - is to reduce emissions by 3 to 5 % in 2000 relative to 1989/1990. The second National Environmental Policy Plan (NMP-2), issued in December 1993, confirmed this target but also concluded that policies will have to be enhanced and additional measures taken in order to achieve it. The measures developed in NMP-plus assumed that real energy prices would rise substantially during the 1990`s. However, the prices are at their lowest level since the early 1970`s and official projections now assume that real energy prices will remain more or less constant between 1990 and 2000. Under these conditions, application of existing policy instruments will have to be intensified and additional policy instruments will have to be deployed in order to attain even the 3 % emission reduction target for CO{sub 2}. In December 1993 the Government`s second National Environmental Policy Plan and second Memorandum on Energy Conservation indicated how policy efforts in the area of climate change will be enhanced. Targets were set for improving energy efficiency in different sectors in the period 1989-2000: 23 % for households, 23 % for non-residential buildings, 19 % for industry, 26 % for agriculture, 10 % for transport and 26 % for power stations. The overall efficiency improvement (including renewables) will lead to energy consumption of 2865 PJ in 2000 (550 PJ less than what it would have been without the policy measures; slightly more than what it was in 1990). Energy efficiency (including renewables) will be responsible for roughly two thirds of the CO{sub 2} reduction needed, with the remainder coming from transport, recycling, reduced coal use, afforestation and structural changes

  5. A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Border Adjustments for Climate Change Policy.(in Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    Shiro Takeda; Susumu Suzuki; Arimura, Toshi H.

    2012-01-01

    Using a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, this paper studies economic impacts of border adjustments for climate change policy. Our model is a 12 regions, 22 sectors recursive dynamic model from 2004 to 2020 and we use GTAP7.1 for a benchmark dataset. We assume that the developed regions (Annex B regions) impose carbon regulations and analyze what impacts border adjustments have on carbon leakage, energy-intensive trade-exposed (EITE) sectors, GDP and welfare. Ou...

  6. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  7. National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, K.H.

    2006-01-01

    This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main...... first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited...... national awareness and the fact that climate policy is marginal compared to other national interests in Uganda, the experiences with donor support for the implementation of global climate policy nationally are analysed. This article demonstrates that neither national policies nor national management...

  8. Maximizing the Policy Impacts of Public Engagement : A European Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emery, Steven B.; Mulder, Henk A.J.; Frewer, Lynn J

    2015-01-01

    There is a lack of published evidence which demonstrates the impacts of public engagement (PE) in science and technology policy. This might represent the failure of PE to achieve policy impacts or indicate a lack of effective procedures for discerning the uptake by policy makers of PE-derived output

  9. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  10. A Model of Climate Policy Using Board Game Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Castronova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a case study of how a board game can be modified to generate a serious game. We argue that board games are an interesting medium for serious games, especially when the goal is to teach players about particularly complex systems. In that case, the transparency of a board game makes it possible for players to “see the whole boards” – to see all of the various moving parts at work. That transparency also makes it very easy to modify board games. To demonstrate these claims, we present a modification to the board game CO2 that accurately models different policy options with regard to global warming. We show how a few major changes to the original game’s point systems, as well as removal of certain extraneous features, can significantly improve the game, adding an instructional value. The game allows players to experiment with several policy options, including carbon taxes, carbon emissions permit sales, and clean energy research support, and lets players see how these policies interact. We discuss ways that teachers, advocates, journalists, and others can the Climate Policy mod to more easily explain the incredibly complex interactions of power markets, carbon dioxide emissions, and public policy.

  11. Undergraduates study climate change science, philosophy, and public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullock, Mark A.; Frodeman, Robert L.

    The National Science Foundation's (NSF) Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) program provides undergraduate students with the opportunity to participate in ongoing scientific research. Existing either as stand-alone summer programs or as supplementary components to existing NSF research grants, the REU program focuses on introducing aspiring young scientists to the delights and complexities of science. Global Climate Change and Society (GCCS) is an intensive, 8-week REU program that began a 3-year run in the summer of 2001.Developed by a philosopher at the Colorado School of Mines, and a planetary scientist at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colrado, GCCS is a unique experiment in research and pedagogy that introduces students to science by using a distinctive approach. Choosing as its topic the questions surrounding global climate change, the program explores the interwoven scientific, philosophical, and public policy issues that make the climate change debate such a volatile topic in contemporary society. Last summer, the program selected 12 undergraduates through a nationally advertised competition. Student interns came from diverse academic and cultural backgrounds and included physics, philosophy and public policy majors from elite liberal arts schools, major research institutions, and mainstream state universities. The program was held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in Boulder, Colorado (Figure 1).

  12. Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated. (letter)

  13. Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricko, Oliver; Parkinson, Simon C.; Johnson, Nils; Strubegger, Manfred; van Vliet, Michelle TH; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-03-01

    Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.

  14. Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doney, Scott C.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Emmett Duffy, J.; Barry, James P.; Chan, Francis; English, Chad A.; Galindo, Heather M.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Knowlton, Nancy; Polovina, Jeffrey; Rabalais, Nancy N.; Sydeman, William J.; Talley, Lynne D.

    2012-01-01

    In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

  15. EU policy options for climate and energy beyond 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koelemeijer, R.; Ros, J.; Notenboom, J.; Boot, P. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Groenenberg, H.; Winkel, T. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-05-15

    In 2009, the EU climate and energy package with targets for 2020 (the so-called 20-20-20 targets) were formulated. For the period after 2020, however, there are no legally binding targets at the EU level, except for a decreasing ETS cap which will not be sufficient in light of the ambition for 2050. This leads to uncertainty for market players, as project lead times are long and high upfront investments need to deliver returns well beyond 2020. In its Green Paper on a 2030 framework for climate and energy policies, the European Commission recognised the need for clarity regarding the post-2020 policy framework. Currently under discussion is whether the approach for 2020 should be continued towards 2030 in the form of three more stringent targets or that other approaches would be more appropriate. Within this context, the Dutch Government asked PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Ecofys for advice. PBL and Ecofys have subsequently analysed possible options for an EU policy framework for 2030 that will steer towards a low-carbon economy by 2050 in a cost-effective way.

  16. Air Pollution Policy in Europe. Quantifying the Interaction with Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bollen, J. [CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Den Haag (Netherlands); Brink, C. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands)

    2012-10-15

    In this study the Computable General Equilibrium Model called WorldScan is used to analyse interactions between European air pollution policies and policies aimed at addressing climate change. WorldScan incorporates the emissions of both greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) and air pollutants (SO2, NOx, NH3 and PM2.5). WorldScan has been extended with equations that enable the simulation of end-of-pipe measures that remove pollutants without affecting the emission-producing activity itself. Air pollution policy will depend on end-of-pipe controls for not more than 50%, thus also at least 50% of the required emission reduction will come from changes in the use of energy through efficiency improvements, fuel switching and other structural changes in the economy. Greenhouse gas emissions thereby decrease which renders climate change policies less costly. Our results show that carbon prices will fall, but not more than 33%, although they could drop to zero when the EU agrees on a more stringent air pollution policy.

  17. Evaluation of economic impact of climatic change on agro-forestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Gallerani

    Full Text Available Climate change has a strong influence on agro-forestry systems. Present estimations evisage that changes in climate patterns and extreme events connected to climate change will have greater impacts in the future. This paper seeks to illustrate the articulation of the problems concerning the economic evaluation of climate change, with particularly attention to open problems and future lines of research. Research on this topic, though using methods and approaches consolidated in the disciplines of resource economics and evaluation, still have several open problems, particularly in the field of multidisciplinary studies of the man-environmental relations, policy evaluation and development of decision support systems for decision makers.

  18. Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrétien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD. PMID:27081888

  19. Assessment of impacts on ground water resources in Libya and vulnerability to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Bindra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is designed to present the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources in general and Libya in particular. State of the art reviews on recent research studies, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources shows that climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. It outlines to demonstrate that how climate change impact assessment plays a vital role in forming the sensitive water balance rarely achieved in most area owing to precipitation variability’s and seasonality. It demonstrates that how large increases in water demand with very little recharge from precipitation have strained Libya’s groundwater resources resulting in declines of groundwater levels and its quality, especially on Libyan coastal areas where most of the agriculture, domestic and industrial activities are concentrated. Based on several research studies it demonstrates that how policy and decision making process using best practices for monitoring, analyzing and forecasting variation of climate is a way forward to cope with the impact of sea level rise, and combat some water supplies in vulnerable areas that are becoming unusable due to the penetration of salt water into coastal aquifers (Jifara Plain, Sirt, Jebal El-Akhdar.Finally, a number of Global Climate Models (GCM are reviewed to demonstrate that how better understanding of climate and climate change forecasting helps in devising appropriate adaptation strategies due to the impact of climate change.

  20. 2005 Climate Policy Progress Report of the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This is the first report to be submitted by the Netherlands under Decision No. 280/2004/EC. The last report under the old monitoring mechanism (Decision 93/389/EEC as last amended by Regulation (EC) No 1882/2003) was submitted in March 2004 under the name Note Regarding Developments in Dutch Climate Change Policy. The 2005 report provides an overview of the Netherlands' policies and their effects since 1990. 1990 was chosen as the starting point in order to enable the European Commission to paint a complete picture of the Netherlands' efforts in the European Union's report on demonstrable progress to be submitted to the UNFCCC in January 2006. The structure and content of the report follow not only the Implementing Provisions adopted under 280/2004/EC (Commission Decision 2005/166/EC) but also the UNFCCC reporting guidelines (FCCC/CP/1999/7). Many sections of the report will therefore be used in the Netherlands' own demonstrable progress report and its 4th National Communication to the UNFCCC, enabling the Netherlands to fulfill its international reporting obligations as efficiently as possible. In accordance with Decision 280/2004/EC, article 3.2, this report contains the following four chapters: (1) Policies and measures; (2) Projections of future emissions; (3) Implementation of relevant Community legislation and policies; legal and institutional steps to prepare to implement commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and arrangement for and national implementation of compliance and enforcement procedures; and (4) Institutional and financial arrangements and decision making procedures to coordinate and support activities related to participation in the mechanisms under art. 6, 12 and 17 of the Kyoto Protocol, including the participation of legal entities. For ease of presentation, nine appendices present in tabular format some of the information required by Decision 280/2004/EC and the Implementing Provisions. The appendices deal with the following topics: Annex 1

  1. Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term climate mitigation pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luderer, Gunnar; Bertram, Christoph; Calvin, Katherine V.; De Cian, Enrica; Kriegler, Elmar

    2016-05-09

    While the international community has set a target to limit global warming to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented. We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world’s regions. In this scenario, GHG concentrations stabilize at approximately 650 ppm CO2e, which clearly falls short of the international community’s long-term climate target. We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO2e by 2100, if countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030, before global cooperative action is taken to pursue the long-term mitigation target. Despite weak near-term action, a 450 ppm CO2e target is achievable in all the models. However, we find that a deferral of ambitious action exacerbates the challenges of low stabilization. Specifically, weak near-term action leads to (a) higher temporary overshooting of radiative forcing, (b) faster and more aggressive transformations of energy systems after target adoption, (c) more stranded investments in fossil-based capacities, and (d) higher long-term mitigation costs and carbon prices._

  2. Promoting interactions between local climate change mitigation, sustainable energy development, and rural development policies in Lithuania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lithuania has developed several important climate change mitigation policy documents however there are no attempts in Lithuania to develop local climate change mitigation policies or to decentralize climate change mitigation policy. Seeking to achieve harmonization and decentralization of climate change mitigation and energy policies in Lithuania the framework for local climate change mitigation strategy need to be developed taking into account requirements, targets and measures set in national climate change mitigation and energy policy documents. The paper will describe how national climate change mitigation and energy policies can be implemented via local energy and climate change mitigation plans. The aim of the paper is to analyze the climate change mitigation policy and its relationship with policies promoting sustainable energy development in Lithuania and to present a framework for local approaches to climate change mitigation in Lithuania, in the context of the existing national and supra-national energy, climate change, and rural development policies. - Highlights: ► The framework for local energy action plans is offered. ► The structural support possibilities are assessed with respect to the Lithuanian legal base. ► The proposals are given for further promotion of sustainable energy at the local level.

  3. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change Gerrit Hansen Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced climate change are a

  4. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  5. 英国新联合政府气候变化政策最新走向及其对中国的影响%Latest Climate Change Policies of UK's Coalition Government and Its Impact on China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    安树民; 王仲成

    2011-01-01

    In May 2010, the Coalition Government, by [he Conservative Party and Liberal Democrat Party, came inlu power, and same changes were also made on the climate change policies accordingly. This paper is trying to find some emphases and changes of UK's climate change policies, based on lite Annual Energy Statement announced by the Coalition Government on July 27,2010, the article published by Prime Minister David Cameron, and (he speech delivered by Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Huhne. The new government promotes international emission reduction and maintains the international business interests of UK's low-carbon technologies. The new government requires major developing countries to commit to the mitigalion actions which are measureable, reportable and verifiable. The UK's government shifts the focus of domestic climale change policy from emission reduction to adaptation. The new British government attaches great importance to China in the low carbon technology cooperation. Facing new opportunities as well as challenges. China needs to develop a low-carbon development strategy at national level as soon as possible.%2010年5月英国保守党和自由民主党组成联合政府执政,其气候变化政策也相应发生了一些变化.根据7月27日英国政府公布的首份、卡梅伦首相的文章及能源与气候变化大臣休恩的演讲,可粗线条勾勒出其气候变化政策的一些基本走向.在国际框架上,新政府把积极推动国际减排,维护英国低碳技术的国际商业利益作为其未来施政的一个重要方向,更加坚持发展中国家承担减排任务及"三可"机制.在英国本土,气候变化的重点则由原来的"减排"转而强调"适应".英国新政府十分重视与中国在低碳领域的合作.对于中国而言,机遇与挑战并存,需要尽快尽早制定国家级的低碳发展战略.

  6. Political economy constraints on carbon pricing policies: What are the implications for economic efficiency, environmental efficacy, and climate policy design?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Economists traditionally view a Pigouvian fee on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, either via carbon taxes or emissions caps and permit trading (“cap-and-trade”), as the economically optimal or “first-best” policy to address climate change-related externalities. Yet several political economy factors can severely constrain the implementation of these carbon pricing policies, including opposition of industrial sectors with a concentration of assets that would lose considerable value under such policies; the collective action nature of climate mitigation efforts; principal agent failures; and a low willingness-to-pay for climate mitigation by citizens. Real-world implementations of carbon pricing policies can thus fall short of the economically optimal outcomes envisioned in theory. Consistent with the general theory of the second-best, the presence of binding political economy constraints opens a significant “opportunity space” for the design of creative climate policy instruments with superior political feasibility, economic efficiency, and environmental efficacy relative to the constrained implementation of carbon pricing policies. This paper presents theoretical political economy frameworks relevant to climate policy design and provides corroborating evidence from the United States context. It concludes with a series of implications for climate policy making and argues for the creative pursuit of a mix of second-best policy instruments. - Highlights: • Political economy constraints can bind carbon pricing policies. • These constraints can prevent implementation of theoretically optimal carbon prices. • U.S. household willingness-to-pay for climate policy likely falls in the range of $80–$200 per year. • U.S. carbon prices may be politically constrained to as low as $2–$8 per ton of CO2. • An opportunity space exists for improvements in climate policy design and outcomes

  7. Long-range scenarios for climate change. Policy analysis. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios are conceivable future states of affairs given certain assumptions about the present and the course of events in the intervening period. They are particularly useful for investigating uncertainty and its consequences for decision making. Scenarios explicitly recognize that our ability to forecast the future course of events is very limited. Accordingly they identify the key areas of uncertainty and look at the consequences of different outcomes in those key areas. From the wide-ranging discussion held at the workshop, the criteria and principles listed below were developed to guide the process of scenario building in the particular context of climate change policy analysis. Such criteria should also help to avoid the inappropriate use of scenarios by policy makers and others. (author)

  8. Using Copernicus earth observation services to monitor climate change impacts and adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Daniel; Zebisch, Marc; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Schönthaler, Konstanze; von Andrian-Werburg, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    In the last years, earth observation made a big leap towards an operational monitoring of the state of environment. Remote sensing provides for instance information on the dynamics, trends and anomalies of snow and glaciers, vegetation, soil moisture or water temperature. In particular, the European Copernicus initiative offers new opportunities through new satellites with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, operational services for environmental monitoring and an open data access policy. With the Copernicus climate change service and the ESA climate change initiative, specific earth observation programs are in place to address the impacts of climate change. However, such products and services are until now rarely picked up in the field of policy or decision making oriented climate impact or climate risk assessments. In this talk, we will present results of a study, which focus on the question, if and how remote sensing approaches could be integrated into operational monitoring activities of climate impacts and response measures on a national and subnational scale. We assessed all existing and planned Copernicus services regarding their relevance for climate impact monitoring by comparing them against the indication fields from an indicator system for climate impact and response monitoring in Germany, which has lately been developed in the framework of the German national adaptation strategy. For several climate impact or response indicators, an immediate integration of remote sensing data could be identified and been recommended. For these cases, we will show practical examples on the benefit of remote sensing data. For other indication fields, promising approaches were found, which need further development. We argue that remote sensing is a very valuable complement to the existing indicator schemes by contributing with spatial explicit, timely information but not always easy to integrate with classical approaches, which are oriented towards consistent long

  9. Renewable energy technologies and climate change policies in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    suggests that in the absence of stringent climate change policies, India is likely to go along the conventional fossil fuel path. The same can be true of many other developing countries. The policies in specific countries, especially developing nations with no binding carbon mitigation commitments, will be crucial for generating initial technology 'push', before the market will be ready to provide the demand 'pull' in the long run. This paper provides a review of the renewable energy experience in India in terms of positive lessons and identified barriers. It looks at various policy options for India and develops, using macro-modelling tools, scenarios of the likely penetration of RETs under different climate change mitigation policy regimes. (author)

  10. Tax or no tax? Preferences for climate policy attributes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braennlund, Runar; Persson, Lars, e-mail: runar.brannlund@econ.umu.se

    2010-03-15

    Today, many countries around the world respond to the global warming and its consequences with various policy instruments such as e.g. taxes, subsidies, emission permit trading, regulations and information campaigns. In the economic literature, policy instruments have typically been analyzed with respect to efficiency, while little effort has been put on public preferences for these instruments. In this paper, an Internet-based choice experiment is conducted where respondents are asked to choose between two alternative policy instruments that both reduce the emissions of CO{sub 2} by the same amount. The policy instruments are characterized by a number of attributes; a technology-effect, an awareness-effect, cost distribution, geographic distribution and private cost (presented in more detail in the paper). By varying the levels of each of the attributes, respondents indirectly reveal their preferences for these attributes. Half of the respondents are faced with instruments labeled by 'tax' and 'other', whereas the other half are faced with unlabeled instruments. As for the label, the results show that people dislike the 'tax'. The results also show that people prefer instruments with a positive effect on environmentally-friendly technology and climate awareness. A progressive-like cost distribution is preferred to a regressive cost distribution, and the private cost is negatively related to the choice. Finally, the results indicate that Swedes want the reduction to take place in Europe but not necessarily in Sweden

  11. Switzerland: current energy and climate policies. Political boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    End use energy consumption in Switzerland has increased almost ninefold over the past 95 years, amounting to nearly 88 PJ in 2004. This figure breaks down as follows: coal 5%, oil-based fuels 29%, motor fuels 31%, electricity 22%, gas 11%, district heat, solid municipal and industrial waste as well as renewables (excluding electricity) approx. 1%. In 2004 alone, end use energy consumption rose by half a percent, thus reaching a new record high. This development is due, above all, to the population increase and to economic growth. To achieve its goals in energy and climate policies, and to initiate sustainable energy supply, the Swiss federal council in 2001 launched the 'EnergySwitzerland' Program. The new strategy of the Program focuses on these three goals: 'Climate', 'Electricity: Efficiency Goal', and 'Renewable Energies'. On the basis of perspectives of the development of the population and of the economy, the consequences of a number of policy variants for energy supply and demand and for the economy and the environment have been examined. Four scenarios (variants) are to help design energy policy on a medium and long term by showing energy policy options. For the area of electricity supply facing increasing requirements, 4 options and their pros and cons are distinguished: electricity imports, renewable energies, fossil- fired thermal plants (combined-cycle plants), and nuclear power. With a 40% share in domestic production, nuclear power continues to be a pillar of Swiss energy supply. The fundamental question about the future of nuclear power is not a question of technical or economic know-how, but a question of the system of political values. As the current legal system in the field of electricity supply does not meet requirements, it will have to be adapted. (orig.)

  12. On the relevance of ideology and environmental values for climate change beliefs, climate policy support, and climate protection activities: An empirical cross country analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ziegler, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Based on unique data from representative computer-based surveys among more than 3400 citizens, this paper empirically examines the determinants of climate change beliefs, climate policy support, and climate protection activities in three countries which are key players in international climate policy, namely the USA, Germany (as largest country in the European Union), and China. Our econometric analysis focuses on the effect of ideological and political identification and especially considers...

  13. The Europeanization of German energy and climate policies. New forms of policy-making and EU multi-level-governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Energy Transition (''Energiewende'') is one of the hot topics of the political debate in Germany for some years. As a consequence of ongoing European integration, EU level politics have gained growing importance. The focus of this study is on the interaction of German and EU energy and climate policies. How have German actors influenced EU policy-making processes and in how far are EU policies relevant for national policy-making in Germany? Three case studies look at processes in the fields of electricity market regulation, renewable energy policy and climate protection between 2007 and 2013.

  14. Transport policy and climate change: How to decide when experts disagree

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berrittella, Maria [Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca per la Programmazione Informatica dell' Economia e Tecnologia (CIRPIET), Universita degli Studi di Palermo, V.le delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy)], E-mail: maria.berrittella@unipa.it; Certa, Antonella; Enea, Mario [Dipartimento di Tecnologia Meccanica, Produzione e Ingegneria Gestionale (DTMPIG), Universita degli Studi di Palermo, V.le delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy); Zito, Pietro [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dei Trasporti (DITRA), Universita degli Studi di Palermo, V.le delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy)

    2008-06-15

    Transport is the sector with the fastest growth of greenhouse gases emissions in many countries. Accumulation of these emissions may cause uncertain and irreversible adverse climate change impacts. In this context, we use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to face the question on how to select the best transport policy if the experts have different opinions and beliefs on the occurrence of these impacts. Thus, both the treatment of uncertainty and dissent are examined for the ranking of transport policies. The opinions of experts have been investigated by a means of a survey questionnaire. A sensitivity analysis of the experts' weights and the criteria' weights confirms the robustness of the results.

  15. Antarctica and Global Environmental Change - Lessons from the Past Inform Climate Change Policy Today

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, R. B.; Scientific Team Of Odp Drilling Leg 318; Andrill Science Team

    2011-12-01

    Antarctic's continental ice, sea ice, and the broader Southern Ocean form a coupled and complex climate system that interacts in important yet poorly understood ways with the low and mid-latitudes. Because of its unusual sovereignty status and the fact that there is no indigenous human population, information about climate change in Antarctica penetrates the policy world less readily than findings from other regions. Yet, Antarctica's potential to impact climate change globally is disproportionately large. Vulnerable portions of the ice sheet may contribute up to 3 to 5 meters of sea level rise in the coming centuries, including significant amounts within the next 50 years. Loss of sea ice and other changes in the Southern Ocean may reduce oceanic uptake of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide, exacerbating global warming worldwide. Antarctica's impact on the Southern Hemisphere wind field is now well-established, contributing to ongoing decadal-scale perturbations in continental precipitation as well as major reorganizations of Southern Ocean food chains. Recent scientific drilling programs in the Ross Sea and off Wilkes Land, Antarctica, provide valuable insights into past climatic and biogeochemical change in Antarctica, insights of great relevance to international and national climate change policy. In this paper, we discuss polar amplification, sea level variability coupled to Antarctic ice volume, and response timescales as seen through the lens of past climate change. One key result emerging from multiple drilling programs is recognition of unanticipated dynamism in the Antarctic ice sheet during portions of the Pliocene (at a time with pCO2 levels equivalent to those anticipated late this century) as well as during "super-interglacials" of the Pleistocene. Evidence for substantially warmer ocean temperatures and reduced sea ice cover at these times suggests that polar amplification of natural climate variability, even under scenarios of relative small amounts

  16. On the climatic impact of contrails

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strauss, B.; Meerkoetter, R.; Wissinger, B.; Wendling, P. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The impact of contrail induced cirrus clouds on regional climate is estimated for atmospheric conditions of Southern Germany that are typical for the months of July and October. This is done by the use of a regionalized one-dimensional radiative convective model (RCM). The influence of an increased ice cloud cover is studied by comparing RCM results using averaged climatological values of cloudiness with those of a case with modified cloudiness. It turns out that a 10% increase in ice cloud cover leads to a surface temperature increase of 1.4 K and 1.2 K for the months of July and October, respectively. (author) 14 refs.

  17. What's happening out there? (Climatic change impacts)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article briefly comments on some stumbling-blocks to climatic change modelling accuracy - in assessments of the greenhouse effect, 25% (missing link) of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption is still unaccounted for; 1989 World Bank estimates of the Amazon rain forest deforestation rate have since proven to be inaccurate; there are difficulties in assessing the movement of the earth's crust relative to variations in sea level; and different studies vary in results relative to global temperature measurement and trend assessment. The need for an assessment of the economic impacts of increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is also pointed out

  18. Amazonia: Burning and global climate impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, humans have been playing a major role in reducing the natural forest cover in the tropics through different forms of slash and burn. The most serious destruction, it is said, is occurring in the Amazon, which is the largest expanse of tropical forest remaining on the planet. This chapter reviews briefly the causes and the extent of Amazonian deforestation and focuses on its global and local climate impacts. In addition, the effects of loss of diversity and need to preserve Indian cultures and societies are briefly discussed

  19. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  20. Celebrity Climate Contrarians: Understanding a keystone species in contemporary climate science-policy-public interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boykoff, M. T.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1980s, a keystone species called 'climate contrarians' has emerged and thrived. Through resistance to dominant interpretations of scientific evidence, and often outlier views on optimal responses to climate threats, contrarians have raised many meta-level questions: for instance, questions involve to what extent have their varied interventions been effective in terms of sparking a new and wise Copernican revolution; or do their amplified voices instead service entrenched carbon-based industry interests while they blend debates over 'climate change' with other culture wars? While the value of their influence has generated numerous debates, there is no doubt that climate contrarians have had significant influence on climate science, policy and public communities in ways that are larger than would be expected from their relative abundance in society. As such, a number of these actors have achieved 'celebrity status' in science-policy circles, and, at times, larger public spaces. This presentation focuses on how - particularly through amplified mass media attention to their movements - various outlier interventions have demonstrated themselves to be (often deliberately) detrimental to efforts that seek to enlarge rather than constrict the spectrum of possibility for mobilizing appropriate responses to ongoing climate challenges. Also, this work analyses the growth pathways of these charismatic megafauna through interview data and participant observations completed by the author at the 2011 Heartland Institute's Sixth International Conference on Climate Change. This provides detail on how outlier perspectives characterized as climate contrarians do work in these spaces under the guise of public intellectualism to achieve intended goals and objectives. The research undertaken and related in the presentation here seeks to better understand motivations that prop up these contrarian stances, such as possible ideological or evidentiary disagreement to the orthodox

  1. IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization – the growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in some countries that were poor 20 years ago have been positive aspects of globalization. But globalization has also generated significant international opposition to concerns about increased inequality and environmental degradation. There are many definitions of globalization. One of them could be: globalization is an ecosystem in which economic potential is no longer defined or contained by political and geographic boundaries. Economic activity has no bounds in a globalized economy. A globalized world is one where goods, services, financial capital, machinery, money, workers and ideas migrate to wherever they are most valued and can work together most efficiently, flexibly and securely. Where does economic policy come into play in this world? This paper presents some aspects of globalization and the impact on the new strategy of macroeconomics policy.

  2. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  3. Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madhusoodhanan, C G; Sreeja, K G; Eldho, T I

    2016-10-01

    Climate change is a major concern in the twenty-first century and its assessments are associated with multiple uncertainties, exacerbated and confounded in the regions where human interventions are prevalent. The present study explores the challenges for climate change impact assessment on the water resources of India, one of the world's largest human-modified systems. The extensive human interventions in the Energy-Land-Water-Climate (ELWC) nexus significantly impact the water resources of the country. The direct human interventions in the landscape may surpass/amplify/mask the impacts of climate change and in the process also affect climate change itself. Uncertainties in climate and resource assessments add to the challenge. Formulating coherent resource and climate change policies in India would therefore require an integrated approach that would assess the multiple interlinkages in the ELWC nexus and distinguish the impacts of global climate change from that of regional human interventions. Concerted research efforts are also needed to incorporate the prominent linkages in the ELWC nexus in climate/earth system modelling. PMID:27170012

  4. Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madhusoodhanan, C G; Sreeja, K G; Eldho, T I

    2016-10-01

    Climate change is a major concern in the twenty-first century and its assessments are associated with multiple uncertainties, exacerbated and confounded in the regions where human interventions are prevalent. The present study explores the challenges for climate change impact assessment on the water resources of India, one of the world's largest human-modified systems. The extensive human interventions in the Energy-Land-Water-Climate (ELWC) nexus significantly impact the water resources of the country. The direct human interventions in the landscape may surpass/amplify/mask the impacts of climate change and in the process also affect climate change itself. Uncertainties in climate and resource assessments add to the challenge. Formulating coherent resource and climate change policies in India would therefore require an integrated approach that would assess the multiple interlinkages in the ELWC nexus and distinguish the impacts of global climate change from that of regional human interventions. Concerted research efforts are also needed to incorporate the prominent linkages in the ELWC nexus in climate/earth system modelling.

  5. Climate change: a review of its health impact and perceived awareness by the young citizens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

    2014-07-01

    In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University's students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. PMID:24999143

  6. Progress in climate science and its role in greenhouse policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this presentation I will call heavily on the IPCC Second Assessment Report. However, this is a field of rapid change and I will also refer to recent outcomes of CSIRO research. Other overall assessments of the state of the science can be seen at www.agu.org/eos_elec/99148e.html (Ledley et a]., 1999); at the Environment Canada web site, http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/apac/climate/co2-climate/CO2_english_99-01.pdf or at CSIRO site http://www.dar.csiro.au. The other side of this rapid development has to do with policy. In the short few years since 'Villach', we have seen the establishment of an International Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Kyoto Protocol. The Framework Convention (see www.unfccc.de/fccc/conv/conv) has the express purpose of bringing about the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The Protocol provides a first attempt at a set of agreements amongst developed countries to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases (www.unfccc.de/fccc/docs/cop3/ protocol). The final, and most recent development relates to the response to the Protocol. In its broadest sense this involves real attempts to minimize carbon emissions, recognition that carbon emissions may develop dollar value, and that we are seeing a process whereby the environmental costs of carbon emissions may become effectively internalized in the costs of our energy resources. In this paper as a climate scientist, I will speak mostly about the underpinning science of 'greenhouse' but will attempt to give a perspective of how this work is influenced by, or influences, these other developments (author)

  7. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  8. The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLachlan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

  9. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.70C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

  10. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health

    OpenAIRE

    Bennett, Charmian M.; Sharon Friel

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world’s poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expect...

  11. Climate change impact on hydrological extremes along rivers in Flanders

    OpenAIRE

    Boukhris, O.

    2008-01-01

    This PhD thesis presents the development of a methodology that analyzes potential climate change impacts on hydrological extremes along rivers in Flanders (Belgium).The main objective of this study is to show whether hydrological modelling techniques driven by climate modelling techniques and climate change scenarios enable a prediction of the long-term evolution of the hydrological system of the studied area.The climate change impact analysis is based on a continuous simulation approach: The...

  12. From global framing to local action : translation of climate change impacts in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ogunseitan, O.A. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2000-06-01

    There is considerable controversy regarding policy and climate change mitigation in Africa. Its resolution will require integrating local knowledge and values into climate impact assessments. Africa's vulnerability to climate change can be traced to the frequency of socio-ecological devastation that comes from major climate variations on the continent. The incidence of famines, homelessness and disease epidemics that require international assistance are reflections of weak policies and institution action frames used to cope with climate and weather related emergencies. However, the valuation of climate change impacts has a subjective dimension that can be gained only through indigenous experience and an understanding of values associated with life-saving intervention programs. A recent study showed that discount rates applied to future life-saving programs by Africans are very different from the rates applied in developed countries, and that the difference should be reflected in national development programs and transnational initiatives for capacity building. The study suggests that if the boundary institutions responsible for public health security have not been too effective in resolving the policy controversy surrounding Africa's participation in climate change assessments, it is due partly to the limitations imposed by cross-scale issues in framing. It was concluded that efforts to reduce Africa's dependence on global emergency health response systems will necessitate the development of autonomous capacity to adapt to natural disasters. Appropriate frame reflection is needed at the local level. 56 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

  13. Climate change in Brazil: public policies, political agenda and media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adelaide Lombardo, Magda; Costa Freitas, Ruimar (Univ. Estadual Paulista, Univ. de Sao Paulo Bela Vista, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo (Brazil))

    2010-07-15

    The climate change and sustainable development issue, especially in the context of energy production, have been on the current national policy rhetoric, reflecting the focus of the issue on the world scenario. The Brazilian Agroenergy Plan (2006-2011), considered as an strategic action of the federal government, is an attempt to organize a propose for Research, Development, Innovation and Technology Transfer, aiming to grant sustainability, competitiveness and greater equity between the agroenergy chain agents, starting with the reality analysis and future perspectives for the world energetic matrix. In this context, this research seeks to analyze the proposals of the State of Sao Paulo to the laws implementations that allows the goal accomplishment of 20% reduction on the greenhouse effect emissions until 2020 (base 2005), through action to the deforestation control, creation of an adaptation fund, establishment of a sustainable transportation system, mapping the vulnerabilities of the territory and financial mechanisms to the development of a low carbon economy. From the perspective of the national media coverage agenda, that has extensively approached the climate changes theme, this research collaborates to the analysis of sustainable projects inside the Brazilian perspective and context. This research will emphasize the relation between media, political speech and public policies

  14. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  15. Optimising Russian natural gas - reform and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-18

    The world's largest gas producer and exporter, Russia has an enormous energy saving potential. At least 30 billion cubic meters, a fifth of Russian exports to European OECD countries, could be saved every year by enhanced technology or energy efficiency. As the era of cheap gas in Russia comes to an end, this potential saving is increasingly important for Russians and importing countries. And, as domestic gas prices increase, efficiency investments will become increasingly economic - not to mention the incentive for Gazprom to enhance its efficiency against a backdrop of high European gas prices. The book analyzes and estimates the potential savings and the associated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the oil extraction (flaring), gas transmission, and distribution sectors. Achieving these savings will require linking long-standing energy efficiency goals with energy sector reforms, as well as climate policy objectives. The book also describes Russia's emerging climate policy and institutional framework, including work still ahead before the country is eligible for the Kyoto Protocol's flexibility mechanisms and can attract financing for greenhouse gas reductions. Stressed is the need for Russia to tap the full potential of energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions through a more competitive environment in the gas sector to attract timely investments.

  16. Education Policies: Potential Impacts and Implications in Australia and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Tiffany

    2016-01-01

    Australian education is delivered through government and independent systems. This article discusses how education policies on gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender, intersex, and queer students in these different sectors have affected school climates. It describes how previously published policy analysis and survey data on Australian gay, lesbian,…

  17. Phase Two European Energy Policy Project. European energy and climate policy - Time for something new

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During 2014, European energy and climate change policy has moved centre stage. The annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of Eastern Ukraine have raised tensions with Russia to levels not seen since the Cold War. The EU has responded with an energy security plan, and sanctions. Developments elsewhere have further complicated matters. In the Middle East, the rapid advances of ISIS (now called the Islamic State), the internal conflicts in Libya, the war in Gaza, and the continuing negotiations with Iran on nuclear matters suggest that early optimism about the 'Arab Spring' was at best misplaced, and chronic instability has returned. In the US, the energy revolution continues to change the geopolitics of oil and gas, with the early skepticism about the scale of the changes and the shift towards North American energy independence giving way to recognition that the changes are permanent and profound - for both global energy markets and Europe. The full implications of the end of the commodity super-cycle are both profound for European energy policy and very poorly understood. Commodity prices have tumbled, with oil prices falling below $80 a barrel. On climate change, there is almost certainly not going to be a continuation of the Kyoto style international framework after the Paris conference in December 2015. Chinese emissions per head have now exceeded those of the Europeans, and it is at last being recognized that the climate change problem is one in which China, not the EU, is centre stage. China has announced that it does not intend to cap its carbon emissions until after 2030, by which time they may peak anyway - from a very much higher base after another decade and a half of increases. The Paris conference will see a series of 'pledges' and 'commitments' very much on the pattern of the Copenhagen Accord, not the credible, enforceable legally binding measures that had been proposed at the Durban Conference of the Parties in 2011

  18. Climate change impacts on freshwater fish, coral reefs, and related ecosystem services in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    We analyzed the potential physical and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries and coral reefs in the United States, examining a reference scenario and two policy scenarios that limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We modeled shifts in suitable habitat ...

  19. The direct impact of climate change on regional labour productivity

    OpenAIRE

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Kovats, R Sari; Simon J. Lloyd; Holt, Tom; Richard S.J. Tol

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change will increase outdoor and indoor heat loads, and may impair health and productivity for millions of working people. This study applies physiological evidence about effects of heat, climate guidelines for safe work environments, climate modelling and global distributions of working populations, to estimate the impact of two climate scenarios on future labour productivity. In most regions, climate change will decrease labour productivity, under the simple assumption of no ...

  20. Multi-basket approaches to climate and environmental policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Katsumasa

    2014-05-01

    Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) receive increasing attention because emission abatements of most of these substances not only reduce air pollution but also slow down the global warming. Cutting the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a long-lived gas in contrast, is of primary importance to mitigate the global climate change as well as to stop ocean acidification. To keep abreast of such multiple challenges in a flexible and cost-effective manner, emission caps can be specified in terms of a reference gas (e.g., CO2) and emissions of different components can be converted according to emission metrics. However, under a current one-basket approach (used continuously in the Kyoto Protocol), which allows trading for all the components, any emission metrics may not be scientifically acceptable due to their diverse atmospheric lifetimes among many other reasons. Here we question whether an emerging multi-basket approach, which groups substances based on their atmospheric lifetimes and permits trading for components within each basket, is more robust in guiding us to achieve multiple policy targets and more useful to maintain the balance between SLCP and CO2 abatements with relatively small additional costs. In a wider context a multi-basket approach may simplify the dialogue among stakeholders and underpin a parallel pursuit of multiple climate and environmental challenges that our society faces.

  1. Carbon capture and storage projects under the climate policy regime: The case of Halten CO2

    OpenAIRE

    Torvanger, Asbjørn; Rypdal, Kristin; Tjernshaugen, Andreas

    2007-01-01

    The report discusses institutional and policy issues associated with implementation of a planned carbon capture and storage plant in Mid-Norway under the international and national climate policy regime.

  2. Don't shoot the messenger: re-framing climate policy to respond to evolving science (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E.; Otto, A.; Rayner, S.

    2013-12-01

    ) mitigation effort. In the short term, such 'adaptive' policy responses take two forms: either investing in technologies to ensure they are available if and when aggressive mitigation is necessary; or devising policies that respond explicitly to climate change, such as a carbon tax linked to global temperature. Neither of these approaches has gained much traction in the mitigation debate because they are both seen as 'kicking the can down the road', or placing the burden of tough mitigation decisions on future politicians. We will propose that a climate policy that is explicitly contingent on the climate response should otherwise be as inflexible as possible. Ideally, the only unpredictable element of the policy should be the rate of warming attributable to rising greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming decades. Those affected by the policy should be able take a clean position on what that rate is likely to be, unaffected by speculation on what future politicians are likely to do. On this measure, relying on a carbon price or subsidizing technology development are both too flexible, however attractive they might be assuming perfectly rational implementation, because their impact depends as much or more on future decisions on taxes and subsidies as it does on future climate. We will describe a possible alternative, upstream mandatory sequestration (or 'SAFE carbon') explicitly linked to attributable warming, and discuss how it might be implemented.

  3. Fuel taxes: An important instrument for climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article shows that fuel taxes serve a very important role for the environment and that we risk a backlash of increased emissions if they are abolished. Fuel taxes have restrained growth in fuel demand and associated carbon emissions. Although fuel demand is large and growing, our analysis shows that it would have been much higher in the absence of domestic fuel taxes. People often assert that fuel demand is inelastic but there is strong research evidence showing the opposite. The price elasticity is in fact quite high but only in the long-run: in the short run it may be quite inelastic which has important implications for policy makers. Had Europe not followed a policy of high fuel taxation but had low US taxes, then fuel demand would have been twice as large. Hypothetical transport demand in the whole OECD area is calculated for various tax scenarios and the results show that fuel taxes are the single most powerful climate policy instrument implemented to date-yet this fact is not usually given due attention in the debate

  4. Research on Climate Change and Its Impacts Needs Freedom of Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Mölders

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change captured my interest as a teenager when, at the dining table, my dad talked about potential anthropogenic climate changes. He brought up subjects such as “climate could change if the Siberian Rivers were to be deviated to the South for irrigation of the (semi arid areas of the former Soviet Union”. Other subjects were afforestation in the Sahel to enhance precipitation recycling, deforestation in the Tropics that could have worldwide impacts on climate, the local climate impacts of the Merowe High Dam in its vicinity and downstream, Atlantropa, a new ice age, and the increase in days with sunshine after the introduction of the high-chimney policy in the Rhein-Ruhr area, just to mention a few.

  5. Groundwater Management Policies for Maintaining Stream Flow Given Variable Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohll, G.; Carroll, R. W.; Brozovic, N.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater is an important resource to agriculture throughout the semi-arid United States, where farmers often supplement surface water diversions with groundwater pumping. Understanding the complex exchange over space and time between rivers and aquifers is important in developing management alternatives that are capable of preserving stream flow for habitat and increasing water deliveries downstream while minimizing lost crop production. Previous integrated hydrologic-economic models have generally assumed superposition of the impacts of groundwater pumping on the hydrologic system for analytical tractability. Although this assumption may be reasonable for some surface water-groundwater systems, in many systems the behavior diverges considerably from the linear assumption. We present analyses using an integrated hydrologic-economic model of surface water-groundwater interaction with nonlinear dynamics, developed for the Mason Valley area in Nevada. The study area has active water conflict between upstream and downstream water users, where groundwater pumping has an important impact on streamflow. The model replicates the movement of water throughout the coupled river and aquifer of the Walker River system and is used to analyze hypothetical tradeoffs between increasing streamflow at the basin outlet and meeting crop water demands for irrigation. The model is run from 1997 to 2006 to capture wet and dry climatic conditions, including a four year drought period in which groundwater pumping accounts for more than 50% of the irrigated water budget. Three alternate groundwater management policies are analyzed to compare economic performance (resulting from reductions in crop area due to reduced groundwater pumping) and hydrologic impact (in terms of increased stream discharge at the basin outlet). First, uniform pumping quotas are the simplest policy to implement and are modeled here as equal reductions in groundwater pumping for each stakeholder at a lumped field

  6. Greenhouse gas emissions trading and complementary policies. Developing a smart mix for ambitious climate policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.

    2010-06-15

    A debate has - most notably as a result of the introduction of fixed caps within the framework of emissions trading - been raised about the need for using additional instruments of climate and energy policy. A common line of argument is that the targets set within the emissions trading scheme are going to be met with a high degree of certainty, and flexibility among the regulated stakeholders will lead to market-based discovery processes. Additional instruments would only generate additional costs and would therefore have to be rejected. However, closer analysis of these fundamental arguments shows that they are constructed on a very high level of abstraction and sometimes rely on strongly simplifying or idealising assumptions. Their theoretical assumptions are, at least in part, very questionable and do not correspond to conditions in the real world for climate and energy policy. At the same time the debate about policy instruments cannot be held autonomously of the specific context of the problem at hand. In this sense the very extensive (complete) and above all effective decarbonisation of the economies of industrialised countries in a comparatively short time frame is the key basic condition for the analysis, assessment and design of the climate policy mix. Essentially, the question is what the best instruments are for purging the whole economic system almost entirely of CO{sub 2} emissions within a period of only forty years. The introduction of emissions trading schemes for greenhouse gases in an increasing number of OECD countries undoubtedly constitutes an important landmark of climate policy. They: - provide a high degree of certainty in terms of meeting targets; - create, on the basis of a standardised price signal, a clearing mechanism for the broad spectrum of emission reduction options close to the market, at least in the short to medium term; and - represent, by means of linking, an interesting option in terms of the globalisation of climate policy

  7. Recent Advances in Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Studies in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D. R.; Moser, S. C.; Hanemann, M.; Pittiglio, S.

    2010-12-01

    The State of California is committed to preparing periodic climate change impacts and adaptation assessments to inform and develop policy in the State. The most recent assessment was released late in 2009 and a new vulnerability and adaptation assessment is underway for release in late 2011. Both assessments use IPCC climate simulations that were statistically downscaled to a horizontal resolution of about 12 Km. The 2009 California assessment attempted to translate some impacts and adaptation options into monetary terms which introduced additional uncertainties. The 2011 California assessment combines a set of coordinated statewide and regional/local studies because many adaptation options, though informed by state and national policies, will be implemented at regional and local levels. The 2011 assessment expands the number of climate simulations that are employed in order to form a fuller estimate of the potential envelope of climate change and its impacts in the state. It also introduces a subset of dynamically downscaled scenarios to understand how well statistical relationships, developed using historical data, hold up in future climate regimes. Investigations are on-going to translate the ensemble of climate simulations and to begin to attach probabilities to the scenarios using subjective and objective techniques. In addition to advances in climate simulations and downscaling techniques, the new vulnerability and adaptation assessment also increasingly integrates social science approaches to assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation options. This presentation will illustrate results from the 2009 assessment and describe the design and initial implementation of the 2011 assessment.

  8. Climate impacts related to biomass utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soimakallio, S.; Savolainen, I.; Pingoud, K.; Sokka, L.; Tsupari, E.; Ekholm, T.; Lindroos, T.J.; Koponen, K.

    2009-12-15

    Biomass is a limited resource. In addition, the challenge to mitigate climate change will require significant emission reductions in the upcoming few decades. The required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are not possible to be achieved exclusively by biomass, despite the management options selected. Consequently, from the point of view of mitigating climate change, the biomass should be used as effectively as possible to provide optimal reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within a given time-frame that is relevant with the fundamental target to mitigate climate change (e.g. 2-degree target). When substitution management is applied and biomass is harvested the effectiveness of various end-use applications to mitigate climate change should be measured by using appropriate indicators. Such indicators should measure objectively the achieved benefits on radiative forcing, compared to a reference scenario, and per-biomass harvested within the relevant time frame. The use of the radiative forcing method taking into account the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks is therefore suggested. Such a method does consider the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere during biomass decay or combustion, accumulation of carbon into growing biomass, and the timing differences between them. The simplified static consideration of emissions only weighted with GWP factors may also be appropriate with the limitations. First, the possible exceeding of the biomass rotation period compared to the relevant time under consideration should be somehow taken into account. Second, significant pulse emissions compared to annual emissions over the period considered should not take place. Otherwise, the suitability of the GWP method for assessing greenhouse impacts over the life cycle of any action is questionable. The practical problems encountered in defining appropriate indicators to measure the effectiveness of actions in mitigating climate change are associated with the

  9. A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, C. Adam

    2014-01-01

    Traditional 'delta-change' approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This method disregards the combined effect of climate change and the inherent hydro-climatological variability in the system. Here we demonstrated a hybrid uncertainty approach in which uncertainties in historical climate variability are combined with...

  10. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models. PMID:25238981

  11. "Entrepreneurship policy: Trade-offs and impact in the EU"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murdock, Karen

    2012-01-01

    Based on the notion that trade-offs in public policies form the basis of the separation of managed and entrepreneurial economies; this paper investigates the impact of policy on actual entrepreneurship activity in these two categories of economies. Using data from 19 European Union member countries......, the impact that policy trade-offs in the goal, target, location and system of finance have on entrepreneurship activity is measured using ordinary least squares regression. The results indicate that while business regulation negatively impact entrepreneurship activity, the location of policy does not show...

  12. Relating climate change policy to poverty policy: assessing the global exposure of the poor to floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, Hessel; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Bangalore, Mook; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Prior to the COP21 conference in Paris this year, the World Bank published a report called "Shockwaves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty". The report flagged that ending poverty and stabilizing climate change should be jointly tackled and that without a good joint policy, a further 100 million people could become trapped in poverty by 2050. As part of the "Shockwaves" report, we investigated whether low-income households are disproportionately overrepresented in hazard-prone areas compared to households with higher income. Furthermore, the hazardous conditions under which poor households are exposed to now may become worse due to climate change with resulting increases in intensity and frequency of floods and droughts. We also show how the amount of affected people to these natural hazards change in the future if nothing is done. We use recent advances in the global spatial modeling of flood and drought hazard and a large sample of household surveys containing asset and income data to explore the relationships.

  13. Lessons for climate policy from The Great Stink of London

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skuce, A.

    2012-12-01

    A rapidly growing population and the introduction of the flush toilet in nineteenth-century London caused a crisis with sewage pollution in the River Thames (Halliday, 1999). There were decades of delays in implementing solutions owing to: inadequate governance institutions; political inertia; difficulties with financing; opposition from vested interests; scientific uncertainties; and technological challenges. Effective counter-measures were started only once the problem arose, quite literally, under the noses of parliamentarians. There are parallels, some of them pointed out earlier by Alley et al (2010), between the sewage crisis in Victorian London and the current problem with climate change. Both involve the unsustainable use of a common resource (a river, the atmosphere) for the unconstrained disposal of human waste products. Alley (2011) estimated that the costs of providing clean water and sanitation are comparable to the expected costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the similarities, the climate change issue is actually much more difficult because of: a) the unequal and uncertain global distribution of cause and effect; b) its long, intergenerational time lines; c) the insufficiency of adequate institutions, conventions or the tools— political, moral or economic—for tackling the climate crisis. This analysis is consistent with the model proposed by Gardiner (2011) in his book A Perfect Moral Storm. The three "storms" he identifies, the global, intergenerational and theoretical storms, combine in a powerful synergy to create a challenge of unprecedented intractability, providing opportunities for what Gardiner calls moral corruption: the obscuring of the buck-passing and procrastination that characterizes climate policy today. In Victorian London, the crucial steps to solve the sewage crises were not taken until the stench from the River Thames during the hot summer of 1858 rendered the House of Commons uninhabitable. A greater stink of a

  14. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yield over the Terai Region of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subedi, S.; Acharya, A.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural sector in Nepal which alone contributes about 42 % of the total GDP have a huge influence on national economy. This sector is very much susceptible to climate change. This study is emphasized on Terai region (situated at an altitude of 60m to 300m) of Nepal which investigates the impacts of climate variability on various stages of cropping (paddy) periods such as transplant, maturity and harvest. The climate variables namely temperature and rainfall are used to explore the relationship between climate and paddy yields based on 30 years of historical observed data. Observed monthly rainfall and temperature data are collected from the department of hydrology and meteorology, and paddy yield data are collected from the Ministry of Agricultural Development. A correlation analysis will be carried out between the backward difference filtered climate parameters and the backward difference filtered rice yield. This study will also analyze average monthly and annual rainfall, and, min, max and mean temperature during the period of 1981-2010 based on 15 synoptic stations of Nepal. This study will visualize rainfall and temperature distribution over Nepal, and also evaluate the effect of change in rainfall and temperature in the paddy yield. While evaluating the impacts of climate on crop yield, this study will not consider the impact of irrigation in crop yield. The major results, climate distribution and its local/regional impacts on agriculture, could be utilized by planners, decision makers, and climate and agricultural scientists as a basis in formulating/implementing future plans, policies and projects.

  15. The Impact of Academic Freedom Policies on Critical Thinking Instruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirley Fessel

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Critical thinking enjoys almost universal support, except when applied to controversial topics. Yet it is these topics that are often the most effective initiators of critical thinking exercises that improve students’ rational approaches to challenging problems. The use of controversial issues to promote critical thinking requires an institutional commitment to academic freedom in order to survive. In some institutional contexts, the most crucial need for critical thinking is the very condition under which it is least likely to be applied. Instead, avoidance of controversy seems to be the predominant policy of institutions fearful of expensive lawsuits or damaging public relations. Several trends are decreasing the likelihood that critical thinking is applied in the classroom to challenging topics: demands for increased accountability from legislatures; scrutiny of adopted content standards; oversight of Internet and other intellectual work of professors affiliated with the universities; student challenges to faculty instruction; and attempts to curtail ideological diversity. This paper describes these current dynamics which erode academic freedom and thus the ability to apply critical thinking to controversial topics. The paper also recommends that institutions and faculty adopt clearly delineated policies related to academic freedom in order to ensure faculty freedom to promote critical thinking. Awareness of how these trends impact the instructional climate enables teachers to design instruction and be more proactive in guaranteeing that critical thinking about controversial topics is able to flourish under academic freedom.

  16. The Impact of Research on Education Policy in an Era of Evidence-Based Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lingard, Bob

    2013-01-01

    Currently, when there is a lot of political talk about the need for "evidence-based policy", and when public policy seeks to calibrate research quality and impact, there is a pressing need to reconsider the relationships between education/al research and education policy. This article seeks to do this, beginning with considerations of the…

  17. Russian Migration Policy and Its Impact on Human Development

    OpenAIRE

    Ivakhnyuk, Irina

    2009-01-01

    For Russia, migration policy – in terms of internal or/and international migration flows management – was an ever-important element of the State activities. Concentrated on State interests, the policy also resulted in human development. The paper presents a historical overview of the Soviet and Russian migration policies with special emphases on the impact on human development and the driving forces behind the changing policies. The Soviet period can be characterized as contradiction between ...

  18. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  19. Climate change policies analysis of sectoral changes in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study addresses the following question, at the core of Europe's climate policy: Beyond the question of the European Union's ability to meet its emissions commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, are sectoral emissions trends displaying structural changes deemed necessary to reduce emissions, and to attain levels that are consistent with the UNFCCC greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation objectives? What lessons can we draw from emissions trends for the EU future climate policy? Greenhouse gas emissions have been stable for the last decade, but mostly due to events and policy developments unrelated to climate policy, and unlikely to be reproduced in other countries: Germany's reunification, substitution from coal to gas in the United Kingdom driven by power market reform. We should not expect changes of such magnitude in the near future. The issue of our future climate policy hence requires a closer look at underlying trends. Industry's direct emissions decreased thanks to constant improvements in energy efficiency and to the substitution of electricity to direct fossil fuel use. In spite of efficiency gains in the residential sector, increasing floor space and level of equipment entail growing energy consumption. Smaller-size households are now spreading to Southern European countries and should be expected in new Member states as well. Turning to the tertiary/services sector, we find that value added and floor space grew significantly over the decade - 35% and 32% respectively in the EU-15. There again, energy efficiency improvements do not compensate for growing floor spaces. Transport's growth, especially freight, has been significant in all countries. The highest rates of traffic growth per unit of gross domestic product are in Spain and Portugal, two countries where rail infrastructure is fairly limited. CO2 emissions from transport grew by 18% in the EU between 1990 and 2000. Power generation's CO2 emissions have decreased slightly in spite of strong

  20. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent