WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate policy impacts

  1. Preferences for distributional impacts of climate policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenningsen, Lea Skræp; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    for such preferences is lacking. We design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of people living in the future in three geographical regions. The experiment is implemented on a representative sample of the Danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model...... expresses some form of distributional preferences, but shows positive preferences for costs, suggesting that responses could be influenced by strategic behaviour and over-signalling of commitment. Our results provide support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate...

  2. Impact of Climate Change. Policy Uncertainty in Power Investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, W.; Yang, M.

    2006-10-01

    Climate change policies are being introduced or actively considered in all IEA member countries, changing the investment conditions and technology choices in the energy sector. Many of these policies are at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is currently high. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impacts of climate change policy on power investment. We use Real Options Analysis approach in the study and model uncertain carbon price and fuel price with stochastic variables. The analysis compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with fuel price uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies. This paper considers views on the importance of climate policy risk, how it is managed, and how it might affect investment behaviour. The implications for policymakers are analyzed, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy design decisions. We found that in many cases, the dominant risks facing base-load generation investment decisions will be market risks associated with electricity and fuel prices. However, under certain conditions and for some technologies, climate policy uncertainty can be an important risk factor, creating an incentive to delay investment and raising investment thresholds. This paper concludes that government climate change policies to promote investment in low-carbon technologies should aim to overcome this incentive to delay by sending long-term investment signals backed up by strengthened international policy action to enhance domestic policy credibility

  3. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  4. Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Climate Policy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemfert, C.

    2001-10-01

    This paper investigates the world economic implications of climate change policy strategies, especially the evaluation of impacts by an implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms, Joint Implementation and Emissions trading with a world integrated assessment model. Of special interest in this context are the welfare spill over and competitiveness effects that result from diverse climate policy strategies. In particular, this study elaborates and compares multi gas policy strategies and explores the impacts of the inclusion of sinks. Because of the recent decision of an isolated climate policy strategy by the United States of America, we examine the economic impacts of all world regions by a non cooperative and free rider position of the USA. It turns out that Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation show evidence of improvement in the economic development in the host countries and increase the share of new applied technologies. The decomposition of welfare effects demonstrates that the competitiveness effect including the spill over effects from trade have the strongest importance because of the intense trade relations between countries. Climatic effects have a significant impact within the next 50 years, cause considerable welfare losses to world regions and will intensify if some highly responsible nations like the USA do not reduce their emissions

  5. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  6. EU climate policy up to 2020: An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph, E-mail: boehringer@uni-oldenburg.d [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost.

  7. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas; Moslener, Ulf; Rutherford, Thomas F.

    2009-01-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  8. Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, D.S.; Amelung, B.; Polome, P.

    2003-01-01

    A number of studies over the past few decades have attempted to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. For reasons related to, inter alia, our incomplete understanding of the workings of many natural and social systems, the tremendous spatial and temporal variability in these systems, and the long time frames over which the issue of climate change will play out, there are large degrees of uncertainty in these estimates. Some of the most rancorous debates, however, have focused on those studies that have attempted to place economic values on these impacts. This should not be surprising as the outcomes of these studies have played an important role in the debates over climate policy. Rightly or wrongly, the estimates presented in these studies are often held up against similar estimates of the costs of mitigating against climate change. The process of economic valuation of environmental and social issues is still relatively young, much less its application to the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. Issues such as climate change push existing techniques to their limits, and possibly beyond. Among the topics that have raised the most concern are the choice of the proper baseline against which to make comparisons, the treatment of uncertainty in human and natural systems, incomplete accounting, the actual valuation of specific impacts, and the aggregation of impacts over time and across widely differing societies. Some of the more recent studies have tried to address these issues, albeit not always satisfactorily. One aspect that makes the economic valuation of environmental and social issues difficult is that it requires addressing impacts that are not typically associated with economic markets, so called nonmarket impacts. In addition to not being traded in markets, many of these impacts affect goods and services that have the characteristic of being public goods, i.e. it is not possible to restrict their use to a

  9. Cumulative Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, A.; Milnes, R.; Miller, K.; Williams, E. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom); De Bruyn, S.; Brinke, L. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    Carbon leakage occurs when climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a country that is not bound by these policies. Given that climate change is a global issue, carbon leakage impacts upon the effectiveness of climate change policies. This independent study examines the cumulative impact of climate change policies on carbon leakage. The report brings together findings and analysis from a wide range of primary literature in this area and where possible, conclusions relevant to the UK are drawn.

  10. The impact of the endogenous technical change on climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sassi, O.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at revisiting the 'autonomous vs. induced' debate on the costs of climate policies, first by broadening the framework of the technical change induction to other economical sectors, and then by attempting to go beyond the concept of technical change induction and think in terms of a structural change induction. After a review of modes of representation of the technical progress in economical prospective models for the assessment of climate policies, the author presents the IMACLIM-R model, a recursive general equilibrium model which simulates the evolution of the world economy within 12 regions and 12 sectors between 2001 and 2100. The results obtained with this model are then presented and discussed, in the case of a reference scenario which displays a significant change towards a carbon-intensive path. These results stress the risks related to a 'laissez faire' attitude. The author explores the consequences in terms of climate policies with a more or less extended taking into account of phenomena of induction of technical and structural changes

  11. Climate change impacts on urban wildfire and flooding policy in Idaho: a comparative policy network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous frameworks and models exist for understanding the dynamics of the public policy process. A policy network approach considers how and why stakeholders and interests pay attention to and engage in policy problems, such as flood control or developing resilient and fire resistant landscapes. Variables considered in this approach include what the relationships are between these stakeholders, how they influence the process and outcomes, communication patterns within and between policy networks, and how networks change as a result of new information, science, or public interest and involvement with the problem. This approach is useful in understanding the creation of natural hazards policy as new information or situations, such as projected climate change impacts, influence and disrupt the policy process and networks. Two significant natural hazard policy networks exist in the semi-arid Treasure Valley region of Southwest Idaho, which includes the capitol city of Boise and the surrounding metropolitan area. Boise is situated along the Boise River and adjacent to steep foothills; this physiographic setting makes Boise vulnerable to both wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and flooding. Both of these natural hazards have devastated the community in the past and floods and fires are projected to occur with more frequency in the future as a result of projected climate change impacts in the region. While both hazards are fairly well defined problems, there are stark differences lending themselves to comparisons across their respective networks. The WUI wildfire network is large and well developed, includes stakeholders from all levels of government, the private sector and property owner organizations, has well defined objectives, and conducts promotional and educational activities as part of its interaction with the public in order to increase awareness and garner support for its policies. The flood control policy network, however, is less defined

  12. Assessing the impact of information and framing on support for climate policy action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatfield-Dodds, Steve

    2007-01-01

    Full text: A significant share of the public appears mislead by the way the economic impacts of emissions reductions are traditionally communicated. This misunderstanding is associated with reduced support for policy action, and risks long term climate impacts that would be avoided if results were communicated properly. Correct this basis appears likely to have a larger effect on attitudes than new research and information on the impacts of climate change. Government action to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions - like other major policy changes -depends on public support, which in turn depends on perceptions of policy impacts. This paper reports research exploring the effect of three factors on support for policy action: the way that policy impacts are described; the magnitude of these impacts, and additional information on climate change impacts, provided internally through the surveys and externally through the release of An Inconvenient Truth and media coverage of the Stern Report (2006). The research used split sample phone and internet surveys (n = 4264) conducted in Australia and New Zealand in four waves from April to December 2006. The study gives rise to four major findings: Support for policy action is sensitive to the magnitude of expected economic impacts, with predicted support varying from 27% to 84% across the different levels of policy impact presented; Current approaches to communicating policy impacts are associated with public support for policy action being 8-10% lower than it would be if policy impacts were well communicated. This bias may be corrected by describing policy impacts in terms of changes relative to current levels - stating that incomes continue to rise - as well as describing impacts relative to the base case; The reduction in support associated with these biases is much larger than the increase in support associated with providing credible additional information on the impacts of climate change; Significantly more than

  13. Energy exporters and climate change. Potential economic impacts of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wit, R.C.N.

    1997-06-01

    This review paper has been written on a commission by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London and is part of a project to investigate the possible impact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on energy markets and therefore on countries exporting oil, gas and coal. The aim of the project conducted by RIIA is to achieve a better understanding of the role of energy exporters in international climate change negotiations on the road towards the second Conference of Parties in Kyoto at the end of 1997 and the underlying national strategies. All four 'economy'-oriented global model studies reviewed in this paper indicate that CO2-reduction policies would cause wide differences in welfare effects across regions. It appears that energy-exporting countries would suffer the greatest welfare losses. Although several policy instruments can be implemented to achieve CO2-emission reductions, only carbon taxes are considered in the models. The model results show that if world level CO2 emissions are approximately stabilized at their 1990 levels, the cumulative losses in GDP of energy exporters generally range between 3% and 12% by 2010. It should be strongly emphasized that the sign and magnitude of the economic impact of CO2 policy on energy exporters depend critically on how the policy instrument is designed. In the case of a carbon tax the following factors are crucial: (1) the choice between a consumption and a production tax, (2) whether it is based on a global or unilateral agreement, (3) the mode of revenue redistribution among countries and (4) whether emission trading is allowed. 27 refs

  14. The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2014-03-01

    This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

  15. Economic impacts of EU climate policy until 2020; EU:n ilmastopolitiikan talousvaikutukset vuoteen 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rantala, O. E-mail: olavi.rantala@etla.fi

    2012-07-01

    The study evaluates the impacts of EU climate policy on the emission allowance price, electricity prices, the competitiveness of industry and macroeconomic developments in the third EU emission trading period 2013-2020. The economic impacts of climate policy on Finland are compared to the impacts on the entire EU area. It turns out that due to its cold climate and heating energy demand, higher export intensity of the economy and higher energy intensity of the industry Finland pays a higher price for EU climate policy in terms of output and employment losses than the EU on average. The study examines the macroeconomic effects of climate policy also in the more distant future, assuming that climate policy is tightened further in the 2020s. Climate policy implemented by emission trading means that the long-term economic growth in the EU area depends essentially on emission-free electricity production, and no longer on other growth factors, such as the labour supply and productivity growth. (orig.)

  16. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  17. Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

    2013-12-01

    In the coming decades, growing demand for energy and water and the need to address climate change will create huge challenges for energy policy and natural resource management. Synergistic strategies must be developed to conserve and use both resources more efficiently. California (CA) is a prime example of a region where policymakers have began to incorporate water planning in energy infrastructure development. But more must be done as CA transforms its energy system to meet its climate target. We analyze lifecycle water use of current and future transport fuel consumption to evaluate impacts & formulate mitigation strategies for the state at the watershed scale. Four 'bounding cases' for CA's future transportation demand to year 2030 are projected for analysis: two scenarios that only meet the 2020 climate target (business-as-usual, BAU) with high / low water use intensity, and two that meet long-term climate target with high / low water use intensity (Fig 1). Our study focuses on the following energy supply chains: (a) liquid fuels from conventional/unconventional oil & gas, (b) thermoelectric and renewable generation technologies, and (c) biofuels (Fig 2-3). We develop plausible siting scenarios that bound the range of possible water sources, impacts, and dispositions to provide insights into how to best allocate water and limit water impacts of energy development. We further identify constraints & opportunities to improve water use efficiency and highlight salient policy relevant lessons. For biofuels we extend our scope to the entire US as most of the biofuels consumed in California are and will be produced from outside of the state. We analyze policy impacts that capture both direct & indirect land use effects across scenarios, thus addressing the major shortcomings of existing studies, which ignore spatial heterogeneity as well as economic effects of crop displacement and the effects of crop intensification and extensification. We use the agronomic

  18. Financial impacts of UK's energy and climate change policies on commercial and industrial businesses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, Chye Peng; Toper, Bruce; Gambhir, Ajay

    2016-01-01

    This study provides a detailed case study assessment of two business sites in the UK, to understand the policy drivers of increases to their energy costs and energy bills, considering all current UK energy and climate change policies. We compare our findings to more generalised, theoretical calculations of the policy cost impact on energy costs and bills – we have found no other studies as comprehensive as ours in terms of policy coverage. We find that for one site the government has over-estimated the likely energy savings due to energy efficiency options. Such differences in estimates should be taken into account when considering the efficacy of climate change policies on future energy savings. The overall impact of energy and climate change policies on costs will be of the order 0.4% of total business costs by 2020. This provides an important metric for the near-term cost of mitigation to meet longer-term climate change goals. - Highlights: •Cumulative impacts of policies on energy prices and bills were studied. •Projected bills for one site are higher than those projected by the UK government. •Results of existing theoretical studies may not be fully representative. •Impact of policies is not considered significant with respect to competitiveness.

  19. The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating

  20. Interaction of the EU ETS and national climate policy instruments – Impact on biomass use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kautto, N.; Arasto, A.; Sijm, J.; Peck, P.

    2012-01-01

    Policy-makers apply multiple policy instruments simultaneously in the climate and energy policy field at both EU and Member State levels. This creates interactions between instruments that can be complementary and synergistic but also conflicting. This article focuses on the interactions of climate policy instruments and their impact on biomass use. The objectives are to examine interactions of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) with the main national climate policy instruments and to identify the influence of these on biomass use. The work draws experiences from seven EU countries (Austria, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom), with a special focus on Finland and Sweden. The analysis explores the effects of policy interactions and is based on an examination of literature, and interviews with biomass experts in research, industry and policy spheres. Results indicate that the combined effects of climate policy instruments have a tangible impact on biomass use, whereas the causal links to the EU ETS are difficult to assess separately. Policy impacts found include increased competition for biomass resources, changes in fuel mixes and a contribution to upward pressure on wood prices. Differences in these effects are linked to differing national policy mixes and energy-carrier portfolios – an example being the relative differences in the importance of peat to the energy mix in Finland and Sweden. Analysis and comparison of the effects in the selected countries can yield insight on how to improve the design of policy interventions that impact biomass use. This study confirms the importance of identifying interactions between policy instruments so as to recognise – and manage – synergies and conflicts. The development of more synergistic and coordinated policy instrument mixes would also be beneficial for the bioenergy field. -- Highlights: ► Combined effects of climate policy instruments have a tangible impact on biomass

  1. Coal transport demand in Western Europe and Japan: Impacts of energy market liberalisation and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golombek, Rolf; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Maestad, Ottar

    2005-12-01

    Western Europe and Japan are among the main importers of coal. Climate policies following the Kyoto agreement are creating pressure to substitute away from coal and turn to less emission intensive energy sources. At the same time, liberalizations of energy markets in Europe and Japan are likely to cause reduced electricity prices, which will boost the overall demand for electricity. This paper analyses the combined effect of electricity market liberalization and climate policies on the international coal trade. Using the numerical equilibrium model LIBEMOD, we find that while liberalization of electricity markets will imply a large increase in aggregate coal transport demand, the negative impact of climate policies may be even larger, in particular if Russia and Ukraine utilise their market power in the market for emission permits. If this market power is exploited, the total effect of liberalisation and climate policy - when including the impact of general economic growth - is a 20% reduction in aggregate coal transport between 2000 and 2010. Further, impacts differ markedly between Western Europe and Japan. A main difference is that liberalisation has a much more positive - and climate policies have a much stronger negative - impact on steam coal demand in Western Europe than in Japan

  2. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Athens- relevance to stakeholders and policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.

    2010-09-01

    Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.

  3. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  4. Impact of Climate Change on Drylands. Climate variability, livelihood strategies and policy options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verhagen, A. [Plant Research International, Wageningen (Netherlands); Dietz, A.J. [Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies AGIDS, University of Amsterdam UvA, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2001-09-01

    The findings of the Impact of Climate Change on Drylands (ICCD) project were discussed during a workshop held on 26 and 27 April 2001. The aims of the workshop were to disseminate the findings of the ICCD project, create awareness of the possible effects of climate change and contribute to the dialogue on climate change research in West Africa. Both the workshop and the project were financed by the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP), Centre Technique de Cooperation de Agricole et Rurale (CTA), Wageningen University (INREF), and Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies (AGIDS)

  5. The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandel, Munish K.; Pratson, Lincoln F.; Jackson, Robert B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO 2 and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2-14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO 2 under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO 2 ), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO 2 increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO 2 . - Highlights: → We analyze the impact of climate change policy on water use for electricity generation. → Water use decreases with an increase in CO 2 allowance price. → Retrofitting of coal plants with CCS could increase water use considerably.

  6. National climate policies across Europe and their impacts on cities strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidrich, O; Reckien, D; Olazabal, M; Foley, A; Salvia, M; de Gregorio Hurtado, S; Orru, H; Flacke, J; Geneletti, D; Pietrapertosa, F; Hamann, J J-P; Tiwary, A; Feliu, E; Dawson, R J

    2016-03-01

    Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. How reliably can climate change and mitigation policy impacts on electric utilities be assessed?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kopp, R.J.; Palmer, K.; De Witt, D.

    1993-01-01

    Numerous mechanisms link climate change and electric utilities. Electricity generation releases radiatively active trace substances (RATS). Significant changes in atmospheric concentration of RATS can lead to a change in regional and global climate regimes. Mitigation action designed to prevent or limit climate change is possible through curbing emissions. Climate change and related mitigation actions impact on electric utilities. Foresight in electric utility planning requires reliable predictions of how the utilities may be affected in the decades ahead. In this paper the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies are noted, and our ability to assess these is reviewed. To this end a suite of models exploring supply and demand questions have been developed. The overall conclusion of the study is that the demand-side uncertainties dominate other unknowns and need to be better characterized and understood. (author)

  8. Carbon taxes and tradeable emissions permits: the economic impacts of climate change policies in New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chisholm, A.; Porter, M. [Tasman Institute (Australia)

    1994-12-31

    Examines the potential economic impacts on New Zealand of climate change policy covering carbon taxes, expanding forest areas as carbon sinks (including selling plantation based emission credits to other OECD nations), and emissions quotas. It is concluded that climate change policy appears to offer high short-term economic costs and little prospect of longer-term economic gain, apart from uncertain environmental benefits. If the Government pursues an active policy to stabilise gross emissions of carbon dioxide at 1990 levels, short term losses in national output and real spending power could be around 0.5 to 1% of GDP. Any major intervention by the New Zealand Government to alter energy use patterns would bring about structural changes in the economy. 4 tabs., 12 refs.

  9. Turning the big knob: an evaluation of the use of energy policy to modulate future climate impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pielke, R.A. Jnr.; Klein, R.; Sarewitz, D.

    2000-01-01

    Conventional wisdom on climate change policy is straightforward: reducing greenhouse gas emissions will avoid the increased frequency and magnitude of climate impacts on environment and society that might occur if emissions are not controlled. The proponents of conventional wisdom widely consider energy policy to be the main policy tool available to decision makers to intentionally modulate future climate impacts. In this paper we challenge the notion that policy makers should intentionally use energy policy to modulate future climate impacts. The paper argues that policy makers may well make large changes in energy policy (and future emissions) without significantly affecting future climate impacts. In other words, even if a theoretical case could be made that energy policy could be used intentionally to modulate future climate, other factors will play a larger role in creating future impact.y and are arguably more amenable to policy change. To illustrate this conclusion, the paper presents a sensitivity analysis under the assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the case of tropical cyclones. One implication of the paper's conclusions is that policy responses to extreme weather events should be decoupled from considerations of energy policy. This decoupling is not intended to diminish either the importance of responding to climate change or of energy policy. Rather, it is to emphasise that there are many responses under the rubric of adaptation that could play a much greater role in reducing societal vulnerability to losses. One of the implications of this change is that scientific uncertainty need not stand in the way of effective action because the measures proposed make sense under any future climate scenario. (author)

  10. Climate policy: Bucket or drainer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikonomou, Vlasis; Patel, Martin; Worrell, Ernst

    2006-01-01

    Worldwide, industry is responsible for about 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making it an important target for climate policy. Energy-intensive industries may be particularly vulnerable to higher energy costs caused by climate policy. If companies cannot offset rising energy costs and would face increased competition from countries without climate policy, they may decide to relocate their industrial production to the countries without climate policy. The resulting net effect of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries is typically referred to as 'carbon leakage'. Carbon leakage may lead to higher global GHG emissions due to the use of less advanced technology in less developed countries. Based on a literature review of climate policy, earlier environmental policy and analyses of historical trends, this paper assesses the carbon leakage effects of climate policy for energy-intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased global production share of Non-Annex 1 countries. However, from empirical analyses we conclude that the trend is primarily driven by regional demand growth. In contrast, climate policy models show a strong carbon leakage. Even though future climate policy may have a more profound impact than environmental policies in the past, the modelling results are doubtful. Leakage generally seems to be overestimated in current models, especially as potential positive spillovers are often not included in the models. The ambiguity of the empirical analyses and the modelling results warrants further research in the importance of production factors for relocation

  11. Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Toman, Michael; Shogren, Jason

    2000-01-01

    Having risen from relative obscurity as few as ten years ago, climate change now looms large among environmental policy issues. Its scope is global; the potential environmental and economic impacts are ubiquitous; the potential restrictions on human choices touch the most basic goals of people in all nations; and the sheer scope of the potential response—a significant shift away from using fossil fuels as the primary energy source in the modern economy—is daunting. In this paper, we explore t...

  12. Climate policy impacts on the competitiveness of energy-intensive manufacturing sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bassi, Andrea M. [Millennium Institute, 2111 Wilson Blvd, Suite 700, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States); University of Bergen, Postboks 7800, 5020 Bergen (Norway); Yudken, Joel S. [High Road Strategies, LLC, 104 N. Columbus Street, Arlington, VA 22203 (United States); Ruth, Matthias [University of Maryland, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2009-08-15

    This study examines the impacts of energy price changes resulting from different carbon-pricing policies on the competitiveness of selected US energy-intensive industries. It further examines possible industry responses, and identifies and provides a preliminary evaluation of potential opportunities to mitigate these impacts. The industry sectors investigated - steel, aluminum, chemicals and paper - are among the largest industrial users of fossil fuels in the US economy. The results of this examination show that climate policies that put a price on carbon could have substantial impacts on the competitiveness of US energy-intensive manufacturing sectors over the next two decades, if climate regulations are applied only in the United States, and no action is taken to invest in advanced low- and no-carbon technologies. The extent of these impacts will vary across industries, depending on their energy intensities, the mix of energy sources they rely on and how energy is used in production activities (heat and power, feedstock). Of relevance is also the speed and rigor with which industries adopt new technologies and retire (or replace) old ones. Other factors affecting these impacts include an industry's vulnerability to foreign imports and its ability to pass through cost increases to its customers in the face of international market competition. (author)

  13. Climate policy impacts on the competitiveness of energy-intensive manufacturing sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bassi, Andrea M.; Yudken, Joel S.; Ruth, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the impacts of energy price changes resulting from different carbon-pricing policies on the competitiveness of selected US energy-intensive industries. It further examines possible industry responses, and identifies and provides a preliminary evaluation of potential opportunities to mitigate these impacts. The industry sectors investigated - steel, aluminum, chemicals and paper - are among the largest industrial users of fossil fuels in the US economy. The results of this examination show that climate policies that put a price on carbon could have substantial impacts on the competitiveness of US energy-intensive manufacturing sectors over the next two decades, if climate regulations are applied only in the United States, and no action is taken to invest in advanced low- and no-carbon technologies. The extent of these impacts will vary across industries, depending on their energy intensities, the mix of energy sources they rely on and how energy is used in production activities (heat and power, feedstock). Of relevance is also the speed and rigor with which industries adopt new technologies and retire (or replace) old ones. Other factors affecting these impacts include an industry's vulnerability to foreign imports and its ability to pass through cost increases to its customers in the face of international market competition.

  14. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  15. Climate policies and learning by doing: Impacts and timing of technology subsidies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kverndokk, Snorre; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2007-01-01

    We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium model with learning by doing. The optimal subsidy rate of a carbon-free technology is high when the technology is first adopted, but falls significantly over the next decades. However, the efficiency costs of uniform instead of optimal subsidies, may be low if there are adjustment costs for a new technology. Finally, supporting existing energy technologies only, may lead to technology lock-in, and the impacts of lock-in increase with the learning potential of new technologies as well as the possibilities for early entry. (author)

  16. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong Seung

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

  17. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

  18. Economic impact of integrated policies to respond to threats of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the Argonne Multisector Industry Growth Assessment Model (AMIGA), which is a tool for policy impact analysis in the context of the economy as a whole and its individual sectors. AMIGA is currently being used by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to help understand and evaluate these DOE programs, including more efficient motor vehicle programs. The steps being taken under the US Climate Change Action Plan are being assessed using AMIGA. However, because AMIGA represents prices of goods and services and the wages of workers, AMIGA has the capability to represent incentive approaches to greenhouse gas emissions reductions such as a carbon tax. The ''best'' policy option in a ''second-best'' world may be a mix, or bundle of incentives, voluntary programs, and command-and-control regulations. Detailed reports on model documentation and simulation studies will be available from the author

  19. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  20. Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yunha; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Pinder, Rob W.

    2016-04-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is reduced by ˜ 2 µg m-3 on average over the USA, and surface ozone by ˜ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (˜ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is ˜ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe, and ˜ 0.8 W m-2 over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing

  1. Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Lee

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration, and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5 is reduced by ∼ 2 µg m−3 on average over the USA, and surface ozone by ∼ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (∼ 74 200 lives saved. The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone, leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is  ∼ 0.04 W m−2 over the globe, and ∼ 0.8 W m−2 over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22

  2. Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. H.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.

    2016-01-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately µg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US

  3. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-11-14

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  4. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

    2017-09-01

    While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

  5. Water and growth: An econometric analysis of climate and policy impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Hassaan Furqan; Morzuch, Bernard J.; Brown, Casey M.

    2017-06-01

    Water-related hazards such as floods, droughts, and disease cause damage to an economy through the destruction of physical capital including property and infrastructure, the loss of human capital, and the interruption of economic activities, like trade and education. The question for policy makers is whether the impacts of water-related risk accrue to manifest as a drag on economic growth at a scale suggesting policy intervention. In this study, the average drag on economic growth from water-related hazards faced by society at a global level is estimated. We use panel regressions with various specifications to investigate the relationship between economic growth and hydroclimatic variables at the country-river basin level. In doing so, we make use of surface water runoff variables never used before. The analysis of the climate variables shows that water availability and water hazards have significant effects on economic growth, providing further evidence beyond earlier studies finding that precipitation extremes were at least as important or likely more important than temperature effects. We then incorporate a broad set of variables representing the areas of infrastructure, institutions, and information to identify the characteristics of a region that determine its vulnerability to water-related risks. The results identify water scarcity, governance, and agricultural intensity as the most relevant measures affecting vulnerabilities to climate variability effects.

  6. Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Richard S.J. Tol

    2012-01-01

    A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy, but would imply an overhaul of other public policy. Catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy...

  7. EU climate policy impact in 2020. With a focus on the effectiveness of emissions trading policy in an economic recession scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graus, W.; Sreenivasamurthy, U.; Wesselink, B.

    2009-06-01

    PBL's Environmental Balance 2009 provides information on the current status and trends of environmental and climate policies. Ecofys contributes to the climate policy section of the report by developing the following three indicators: (1) ex-post and ex-ante policy impacts until 2020 at EU level (wedge diagram); (2) business-as-usual emissions of EU ETS sectors until 2020, revised for the current economic recession; (3) a latest literature review of EUA (EU emission allowances) price band expected until 2020. Based on the latter two analyses, a brief note on the impact of the current economic recession on the effectiveness of the EU emission trading scheme until 2020 is presented.An economic recession of two years or longer will considerably decrease the effectiveness of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in stimulating low-carbon technologies. In order to meet EU climate targets in the longer term, new governmental policies will be needed to compensate for this.

  8. Impacts of the financial crisis on climate and energy policy. Memo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    By request of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) and the Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) have mapped the main effects of the credit crisis on Dutch climate and energy policy. This memo describes the effects of the credit crisis on the economy (question 1) and more particularly the effect on realizing the Dutch targets for 2020 for climate and energy policy as established in the policy program 'Clean and Efficient' (question 2). A distinction should be made between the short term effects (during the recession) and the longer term effects (the years after)(question 5). Moreover, the realization of the Kyoto target for 2008-2012 is addressed (question 3) as well as the question if the Dutch government can incentivise investments in climate and energy that can contribute to economic recovery in the short term (question 4) [mk] [nl

  9. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: Findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sabel, C.E.; Hiscock, R.; Asikainen, A.; Bi, J.; Depledge, M.; Van Den Elshout, S.; Friedrich, R.; Huang, G.; Hurley, F.; Jantunen, M.; Karakitsios, S.P.; Keuken, M.; Kingham, S.; Kontoroupis, P.; Kuenzli, N.; Liu, M.; Martuzzi, M.; Morton, K.; Mudu, P.; Niittynen, M.; Perez, L.; Sarigiannis, D.; Stahl-Timmins, W.; Tobollik, M.; Tuomisto, J.; Willers, S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments. Methods: Five European and two Chinese city

  10. Climate and competitiveness: An economic impact assessment of EU leadership in emission control policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexeeva-Talebi, V.; Boehringer, C.; Moslener, U. [Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim (Germany)

    2007-07-01

    The European Council has recently claimed to consider ambitious emission reduction targets (15 to 30 percent by 2020 as compared to 1990 levels) to limit global climate change. In light of the coexistent EU priorities under the Lisbon process, the authors analyze alternative unilateral EU emission control policies against their effects on EU (sectoral and economy-wide) competitiveness using a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model framework. For a given emission reduction target, the simulations show that alternative implementation rules (uniform versus sectorally differentiated carbon taxes) induce ambiguous impacts on sectoral competitiveness: For a uniform tax, relatively carbon-intensive EU industries face competitiveness losses, while carbon-extensive sectors improve their ability to compete internationally. Losses and gains are reinforced by the stringency of unilateral emission reduction targets. Thus, the implementation of an (economically efficient) uniform carbon tax induces structural change which inevitably goes at the expense of carbon-intensive industries. Vice versa, the authors find that more pronounced tax differentiation in favor of carbon-intensive industries can largely neutralize the negative impacts of emission constraints on their competitiveness, but goes at the expense of overall efficiency. In this case, adjustment costs of emission abatement will to a large extent be born by energy-extensive sectors in terms of a deteriorated ability to compete. As a middle course, moderate tax differentiation allows to sectorally balance competitiveness effects of emission control policies and at the same time limit overall efficiency losses. The authors find also that the level of tax differentiation to balance sectoral competitiveness effects and to limit overall efficiency losses is independent of the emission reduction target. Furthermore, the results indicate that the magnitude of sectoral competitiveness effects is

  11. Impact of the nuclear power and climate change policies on different countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arzani, K.; Mirzahosseini, A.; Khanfekr, A.

    2008-01-01

    At present there is no binding agreement (at a global level) to address the risk of anthropogenic climate change after 2012. Disagreements abound with respect to a post-2012 climate change agreement, on issues such as economic development, policy criteria, environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, equity, dynamic flexibility, complementarity, enforceability and so on. One such disagreement is whether or not nuclear power should play a role in a post-2012 climate change agreement. This qualitative analysis explores the conditions under which nuclear power could contribute to addressing climate change in post-2012 architectures. It reveals that-given the right framework conditions - some architectures, like 'cap and trade' regimes or 'policies and measures' can improve the competitiveness of nuclear power plants, while others are unlikely to provide incentives for nuclear energy development in the short to medium term, such as adaptation and technology cooperation. Overall, the study concludes that post-2012 climate change policy should aim at providing policy flexibility without compromising technology flexibility

  12. Policies to contend with climate change : positive impacts on employment in Europe and France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaudin, T.; Bouchereau, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on the evolution of our society and economy was discussed. Studies have shown that the fight against climate change could result in the creation of many jobs. This article proposed several strategies to undertake, with particular reference to investment in energy conservation and the use of renewable energy. It promoted the frugal use of energy resources, notably fossil fuels, which are becoming scare. It also argued that investment in energy conservation and renewable energy sources is no long a luxury, but a necessity. It provided examples of how these investments are guided by profitability. For example, an investment to insulate a house in 1998 will be completely recuperated by 2005 due to savings in energy costs, after which time energy savings will continue. In addition to environmental protection and energy conservation, another benefit associated with the fight against climate change is job creation in areas such as insulating houses or the production of biofuels. By nature, renewable energy is local and decentralized. As such, it offers the opportunity for local jobs at or near the site of consumption. Examples of direct employment were depicted. In the transportation sector, half the amount of energy is needed to move in mass transit compared to individual cars, while creating twice the employment. Although the initial investment in mass transit is costly, the advantages are far from limited to energy conservation and employment. They include security, and improved health of people in cities which results in lower social costs. In France, the insulation of old buildings constructed before the introduction of new laws on thermal standards also generated employment. It is expected that 20,000 to 30,000 perennial jobs in agriculture and industrial manufacturing will been created in France by 2010 for the biofuel industry alone. Energy conservation will result in a drop in traditional energy consumption, this being the first goal

  13. Local climate policy in practice. Use of the playing field, impact of trends and the integration of climate care in municipal policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menkveld, M.; Burger, H.; Kaal, M.B.T.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

    2001-10-01

    The result of the first research phase of the project was an outline of the playing field of local climate policy. The use of options and instruments from the playing field is examined on the basis of literature and interviews with local governments. In the process, barriers for the implementation of options are illustrated. The evaluation of the playing field in practise shows that local governments often only use part of their playing field. Even local governments that excel and are familiar throughout the country in relation to one particular task area ignore other task areas. The reasons why options and instruments are not fully utilised vary per task area: not enough internal support; lack of clear policy framework; climate policy must join in with other targets or local governments depend on cooperation of other actors. Nevertheless, generally speaking the success and failure factors in utilising options in the local government playing field are often related to the sphere of cooperation with other parties and the input of knowledge in the organisation of the local government. Moreover, the importance of climate is not made explicit enough in many task areas. The options in climate policy for local governments are influenced by social developments. In the study three trends are examined with respect to their influence: developments in the area of liberalisation of the energy market, the position of local governments in national environmental policy and changes in local democracy. These trends result in a complication of the role of local governments. Local governments must show more initiative than in the past. Liberalisation leads to a more business-oriented relationship with energy companies and probably lower energy prices. Larger freedom of policy results in more space for establishing local priorities, but does not necessarily result in more attention for local climate policy. Participation can result in a larger support for climate policy but also

  14. Climate and economy. Climate Policy Dossier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, A.M.; Koutstaal, P.R.; De Groot, H.L.F.; Tang, P.J.G.

    2001-01-01

    In this introductory article an overview is given of what can be expected in this dossier on climate policy in the Netherlands, focusing on the economic analysis of climate policy and climatic change. Attention will be paid to flexible mechanisms to reduce the costs of such policy and visions of interested parties. 1 ref

  15. The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercure, J.-F.; Pollitt, H.; Chewpreecha, U.; Salas, P.; Foley, A.M.; Holden, P.B.; Edwards, N.R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping. - Highlights: • Policy scenarios for decarbonising of the global electricity sector by 90%. • Strong synergies exist between different energy policy instruments. • Carbon pricing not a sufficient policy instrument for large emissions reductions. • Improved agent behaviour assumptions for energy modelling beyond cost-optimisation

  16. Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2009-01-01

    Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

  17. Energy sprawl or energy efficiency: climate policy impacts on natural habitat for the United States of America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert I McDonald

    Full Text Available Concern over climate change has led the U.S. to consider a cap-and-trade system to regulate emissions. Here we illustrate the land-use impact to U.S. habitat types of new energy development resulting from different U.S. energy policies. We estimated the total new land area needed by 2030 to produce energy, under current law and under various cap-and-trade policies, and then partitioned the area impacted among habitat types with geospatial data on the feasibility of production. The land-use intensity of different energy production techniques varies over three orders of magnitude, from 1.9-2.8 km(2/TW hr/yr for nuclear power to 788-1000 km(2/TW hr/yr for biodiesel from soy. In all scenarios, temperate deciduous forests and temperate grasslands will be most impacted by future energy development, although the magnitude of impact by wind, biomass, and coal to different habitat types is policy-specific. Regardless of the existence or structure of a cap-and-trade bill, at least 206,000 km(2 will be impacted without substantial increases in energy efficiency, which saves at least 7.6 km(2 per TW hr of electricity conserved annually and 27.5 km(2 per TW hr of liquid fuels conserved annually. Climate policy that reduces carbon dioxide emissions may increase the areal impact of energy, although the magnitude of this potential side effect may be substantially mitigated by increases in energy efficiency. The possibility of widespread energy sprawl increases the need for energy conservation, appropriate siting, sustainable production practices, and compensatory mitigation offsets.

  18. EU policies on car emissions and fuel quality. Reducing the climate impact from road transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, Anne Raaum; Gulbrandsen, Lars H.

    2012-07-01

    Transport is the second biggest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU, and contributes about one-quarter of the EU's total emissions of CO{sub 2}. Significant reductions in GHG emissions from transport are required if the EU is to achieve its long-term climate goals. This report examines the making and implementation of two of the regulations the EU has put in place to lower emissions from the transport sector: the EU's revised Fuel Quality Directive (Directive 2009/30/EC) and the cars/CO{sub 2} regulation (Regulation (EC) 443/2009). It was found that the relevance of various theories of policymaking in the EU varies with different policy phases. A policy-network understanding of EU policymaking is strengthened when assessing the policy-initiation phase. The Commission played a key role in this phase and drafted legislation in close collaboration with the car and oil refining industries. An intergovernmentalist understanding of EU policy-making is strengthened when assessing the decision-making phase. In this phase, member states defending the interests of their domestic industries had strong influence, but the European Parliament played an important role in this phase too, employing its power in the co-decision procedure. Finally, the implementation process is best understood as a multi-level governance process in which several actors and institutions - notably the Commission, member states, industries, and NGOs - influenced the process. (Author)

  19. Economics, ethics and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1993-01-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (118 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.)

  20. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  1. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  2. Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

    2010-12-01

    Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non

  3. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabel, Clive E; Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Bi, Jun; Depledge, Mike; van den Elshout, Sef; Friedrich, Rainer; Huang, Ganlin; Hurley, Fintan; Jantunen, Matti; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Keuken, Menno; Kingham, Simon; Kontoroupis, Periklis; Kuenzli, Nino; Liu, Miaomiao; Martuzzi, Marco; Morton, Katie; Mudu, Pierpaolo; Niittynen, Marjo; Perez, Laura; Sarigiannis, Denis; Stahl-Timmins, Will; Tobollik, Myriam; Tuomisto, Jouni; Willers, Saskia

    2016-03-08

    Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments. Five European and two Chinese city authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium. The methodology involved modelling the impact of adopted urban climate-change mitigation transport, buildings and energy policy scenarios, usually for the year 2020 and comparing them with business as usual (BAU) scenarios (where policies had not been adopted). Carbon dioxide emissions, health impacting exposures (air pollution, noise and physical activity), health (cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer and leukaemia) and wellbeing (including noise related wellbeing, overall wellbeing, economic wellbeing and inequalities) were modelled. The scenarios were developed from corresponding known levels in 2010 and pre-existing exposure response functions. Additionally there were literature reviews, three longitudinal observational studies and two cross sectional surveys. There are four key findings. Firstly introduction of electric cars may confer some small health benefits but it would be unwise for a city to invest in electric vehicles unless their power generation fuel mix generates fewer emissions than petrol and diesel. Second, adopting policies to reduce private car use may have benefits for carbon dioxide reduction and positive health impacts through reduced noise and increased physical activity. Third, the benefits of carbon dioxide reduction from increasing housing efficiency are likely to be minor and co-benefits for health and wellbeing are dependent on good air exchange. Fourthly, although heating dwellings by in-home biomass burning may reduce carbon dioxide emissions, consequences for health and wellbeing were negative with the technology in use in the cities studied. The climate-change reduction policies reduced

  4. Impact of climate policy uncertainty on the adoption of electricity generating technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuss, Sabine; Obersteiner, Michael; Johansson, Daniel J.A.; Szolgayova, Jana

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a real options model where multiple options are evaluated simultaneously so that the effect of the individual options on each other is accounted for. We apply this model to the electricity sector, where we analyze three typical technologies based on fossil fuel, fossil fuel with carbon capture and renewable energy, respectively. In this way, we can analyze the transition from CO 2 -intensive to CO 2 -neutral electricity production in the face of rising and uncertain CO 2 prices. In addition, such a modelling approach enables us to estimate precisely the expected value of (perfect) information, i.e. the willingness of investors and producers to pay for information about the correct CO 2 price path. As can be expected, the expected value of information rises with increasing CO 2 price uncertainty. In addition, the larger the price uncertainty, the larger are the cumulative CO 2 emissions over the coming century. The reason for this is that the transition to less CO 2 -intensive technologies is increasingly postponed with rising CO 2 price uncertainty. By testing different price processes (geometric Brownian motion versus jump processes with different jump frequencies), we can also make useful recommendations concerning the importance of policy predictability. We find that it is better to have climate change policies that are stable over a certain length of time and change abruptly than less abrupt but more frequently changing policies. Less frequent fluctuations reduce the expected value of information and result in smaller cumulative CO 2 emissions. (author)

  5. Residential Water Scarcity in Cyprus: Impact of Climate Change and Policy Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodoros Zachariadis

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an assessment of the cost of water scarcity in Cyprus, today and in the next 20 years, taking into account the effect of projected climate change in the region. It focuses on the residential sector, accounting also for tourism and industry. Using a simple demand function, total scarcity costs in Cyprus are computed for the period 2010–2030, and three scenarios of future water demand are presented. The central estimate shows that the present value of total costs due to water shortages will amount to 72 million Euros (at 2009 prices, and, if future water demand increases a little faster, these costs may reach 200 million Euros. Using forecasts of regional climate models, costs are found to be about 20% higher in a “climate change” scenario. Compared to the loss of consumer surplus due to water shortages, desalination is found to be a costly solution, even if environmental damage costs from the operation of desalination plants are not accounted for. Finally, dynamic constrained optimization is employed and shows that efficient residential water prices should include a scarcity price of about 40 Eurocents per cubic meter at  2009 prices; this would constitute a 30–100% increase in current prices faced by residential consumers. Reductions in rainfall due to climate change would raise this price by another 2-3 Eurocents. Such a pricing policy would provide a clear long-term signal to consumers and firms and could substantially contribute to a sustainable use of water resources in the island.

  6. EU climate policy: dividing up the commons

    OpenAIRE

    Juan Delgado

    2007-01-01

    Juan Delgado discusses the economic impact of climate change policies. The EU has committed to an ambitious climate change agenda. The challenge facing Europe now is how to meet the targets at a minimum cost and how to allocate the cost in such a way that it has a neutral impact on competitiveness. This note was presented in August 2007 to the Economic Policy Committee of the EU.

  7. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-11-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  8. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  9. Climate policy after Kyoto

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerholm, T.R.

    2002-01-01

    The Kyoto Convention recommends reductions in emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases, to mitigate the rate of climate change. Lively debate has taken place in many countries, not least over the political and economic implications. The basis for the Kyoto discussions was a set of studies commissioned, compiled and published by the UN's International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). At first glance this scientific foundation plainly shows that significant climate change will occur unless emissions of greenhouse gases are sharply curtailed. On closer examination, the scientific evidence provided in the IPCC material is far from clear. Reputable scientists have expressed critical views about the interpretation of the scientific results and, even more, of the way the material is being used for policy purposes. The main purpose of this book is to voice this critique. To give the reader some context, a central section from the IPCC's basic document is presented first. There follow nine papers, by prominent natural and social scientists, in which the reasons for their sceptical attitudes are developed. A final paper by Professor Bert Bolin, chairman of the IPCC during the time when most of the material was produced, provides a response and commentary to the critique. The aim of the editor and authors, in presenting the material in this way, rather than as a polemical tract, is to leave open to the reader the question: Is global warming a consequence of man's activities, or are there other reasons; if so, is adopting policies with significant economic consequences, a reasonable response? (Author)

  10. Report on modelling the macroeconomic competitiveness impacts of EU climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This report details the results of a study carried out by Oxford Economics on the macroeconomic impacts of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on competitiveness in different sectors and different Member States. An economic model was used to assess the impacts of carbon pricing, building on previous work that looked at the effects on the UK economy. The model was used to estimate the impact on competitiveness and output associated with various carbon prices and assumptions for the proposed third EU ETS trading period (2013-2023) by sector for all countries. The model covered 30 sectors for each of the 27 EU Member states plus the USA, Japan and China. The report describes the EU model methodology (direct cost effects, second-round cost effects, cost effects without substitution, cost effects after substitution, pass through to prices, and output effects) and the key results in terms of: impacts of carbon-reduction policies unilateral EU action, sectoral impacts, electricity generation sector only; the non-power sector in the ETS; global action; developed world action; and a summary across all scenarios. The three annexes set out the UK Energy Industry Model (UKEIM), model equations for the EU-wide model and modelling assumptions for electricity generation

  11. Rural migration in Bolivia: the impact of climate change, economic crisis and state policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariscal, Carlos Balderrama; Tassi, Nico; Miranda, Ana Rubena; Canedo, Lucia Aramayo; Cazorla, Ivan

    2011-04-15

    This case study analyses current migration dynamics in two regions of Bolivia: Northern Potosi, one of the main areas of outmigration in Bolivia, and the municipality of San Julian in the Department of Santa Cruz, a major destination for internal migrants, some of whom come from Northern Potosi. The research was qualitative in nature, with specific attention to breadth and accuracy in the information and analysis. The methods used were participative and the research was done in collaboration with the rural and indigenous organisations in the two selected areas: the Federation of Indigenous Ayllus of Northern Potosi (Federacion de Ayllus Originarios Indigenas del Norte de Potosi Charka Qhara Qhara - FAOI-NP) and the Federation of Intercultural Communities of San Julian (Federacion de Comunidades Interculturales de San Julian). The information gathering process examined a wide range of factors that may trigger migration, including the possible influence of climate change and public policies on migration. The key challenge was to understand current patterns of migration, the processes involved and the social, cultural, economic and political causes and effects, taking into account issues that are increasing in importance, such as climate change, and seeking to discover the extent of their influence in the midst of other factors that drive migration. It is well known that migration is not a simple occurrence. In fact, it involves a series of processes, motivations, causes and decisions. Because it is a collective rather than an individual process, it takes on the character of a 'social phenomenon' that is historically and geographically determined. In many cases, there are cultural practices of transhumance, such as agriculture on different ecological levels or the use of winter and summer pastures. This involves people moving from one place to another, sometimes travelling long distances and crossing districts for several months at a time. These transhumance practices

  12. Rural migration in Bolivia: the impact of climate change, economic crisis and state policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariscal, Carlos Balderrama; Tassi, Nico; Miranda, Ana Rubena; Canedo, Lucia Aramayo; Cazorla, Ivan

    2011-04-15

    This case study analyses current migration dynamics in two regions of Bolivia: Northern Potosi, one of the main areas of outmigration in Bolivia, and the municipality of San Julian in the Department of Santa Cruz, a major destination for internal migrants, some of whom come from Northern Potosi. The research was qualitative in nature, with specific attention to breadth and accuracy in the information and analysis. The methods used were participative and the research was done in collaboration with the rural and indigenous organisations in the two selected areas: the Federation of Indigenous Ayllus of Northern Potosi (Federacion de Ayllus Originarios Indigenas del Norte de Potosi Charka Qhara Qhara - FAOI-NP) and the Federation of Intercultural Communities of San Julian (Federacion de Comunidades Interculturales de San Julian). The information gathering process examined a wide range of factors that may trigger migration, including the possible influence of climate change and public policies on migration. The key challenge was to understand current patterns of migration, the processes involved and the social, cultural, economic and political causes and effects, taking into account issues that are increasing in importance, such as climate change, and seeking to discover the extent of their influence in the midst of other factors that drive migration. It is well known that migration is not a simple occurrence. In fact, it involves a series of processes, motivations, causes and decisions. Because it is a collective rather than an individual process, it takes on the character of a 'social phenomenon' that is historically and geographically determined. In many cases, there are cultural practices of transhumance, such as agriculture on different ecological levels or the use of winter and summer pastures. This involves people moving from one place to another, sometimes travelling long distances and crossing districts for several months at a time. These transhumance

  13. Targets for global climate policy : An overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater

  14. Climate impacts of air quality policy: switching to a natural gas-fueled public transportation system in New Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Conor C O; Kandlikar, Milind

    2008-08-15

    Between 2001 and 2003, public transport vehicles in New Delhi were required to switch their fuel to natural gas in an attemptto reduce their air pollution impacts. This study examines the climatic impacts of New Delhi's fuel switching policy, and outlines implications for such efforts in rapidly industrializing countries. Natural gas is mostly composed of methane, an important greenhouse gas. Emitted aerosols (black carbon, particulate organic carbon, and sulfate) also cause radiative forcing. We find that methane and black carbon emissions are critical contributors to the change in carbon dioxide equivalent [CO2(e)] emissions. In New Delhi, the switch to natural gas results in a 30% increase in CO2(e) when the impact of aerosols is not considered. However, when aerosol emissions are taken into account in our model, the net effect of the switch is estimated to be a 10% reduction in CO2(e), and there may be as much as a 30% reduction in CO2(e). There is significant potential for emissions reductions through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Clean Development Mechanism for such fuel switching projects.

  15. The role of technological availability for the distributive impacts of climate change mitigation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lueken, Michael; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Knopf, Brigitte; Leimbach, Marian; Luderer, Gunnar; Bauer, Nico

    2011-01-01

    The impacts of the availability of low-carbon technologies on the regional distribution of mitigation costs are analyzed in a global multi-regional integrated assessment model. Three effects on regional consumption losses are distinguished: domestic measures, trade of fossil energy carriers and trade of emission permits. Key results are: (i) GDP losses and a redirection of investments in the energy system towards capital-intensive technologies are major contributions to regional consumption losses. (ii) A devaluation of tradable fossil energy endowments contributes largely to the mitigation costs of fossil fuel exporters. (iii) In case of reduced availability of low-carbon technologies, the permit market volume and associated monetary redistributions increase. The results suggest that the availability of a broad portfolio of low-carbon technologies could facilitate negotiations on the permit allocation scheme in a global cap-and-trade system. - Highlights: → We analyze the distribution of climate change mitigation costs among world regions. → We quantify contributions from various effects on regional costs. → The interference of world trade and low-carbon technologies is essential. → A broad portfolio of technologies helps international negotiations.

  16. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Leal Filho

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos, to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

  17. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filho, Walter Leal; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Nagy, Gustavo J; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Wiesböck, Laura; Ayal, Desalegn Y; Morgan, Edward A; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

    2018-02-13

    There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

  18. A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Wiesböck, Laura; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

    2018-01-01

    There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events. PMID:29438345

  19. Policy preferences and the diversity of instrument choice for mitigating climate change impacts in the transport sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stead, D.

    2017-01-01

    Different policy approaches and responses to common environmental challenges, such as climate change, exist between countries, and sometimes even within countries. This situation arises because public policy-makers are not only driven by concerns of theoretical purity but are also influenced by a

  20. Booklet for sub-national stakeholders heading towards the COP 21. Agricultural and forestry focus. Key concepts on the impacts of climate change, climate policies and economic tools: insight from French territories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depoues, Vivian; Leseur, Alexia; Bordier, Cecile; Foucherot, Claudine; Lacan, Lea; Planton, Serge; Blanchard, Michele; Lemonsu, Aude; Martin, Eric; Masson, Valery; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Ouzeau, Gaelle; Dandin, Philippe; Pigeon, Gregoire; Duvernoy, Jerome; Mondon, Sylvain; Bodiguel, Aude; Gouthiere, Laurence; Martin-Phipps, Cecile; Archambault, Sabrina; Joubert, Marion; Madariaga, Nicole; Coste, Marie-Alexandra; Viguie, Vincent; Avner, Paolo; Cassen, Christophe; Guivarch, Celine; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Carrega, Marie; Menager, Yann

    2015-11-01

    This report, released in the year of the Paris Climate 2015 summit (COP21), reviews concepts vital for understanding and acting to address climate change at a regional level. Based on the experience of French territories it presents 37 fact-sheets aimed at local players, providing concise and informative access to the most up-to-date knowledge. It also offers feedback on the impacts of climate change, climate policies at a global, European and French level, and economic tools supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation

  1. Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan

    2010-05-01

    targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.

  2. The carbon rent economics of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalkuhl, Matthias; Brecha, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. We assess whether and how owners of oil, gas and coal can be compensated by a carbon permit grandfathering rule. One important finding is that reducing (cumulative) fossil resource use could actually increase scarcity rents and benefit fossil resource owners under a permit grandfathering rule. For our standard parameter setting overall scarcity rents under climate policy increase slightly. While low discount rates of resource owners imply higher rent losses due to climate policies, new developments of reserves or energy efficiency improvements could more than double scarcity rents under climate policy. Another important implication is that agents receiving the climate rent (regulating institutions or owners of grandfathered permits) could influence the climate target such that rents are maximized, rather than to limit global warming to a socially desirable level. For our basic parameter setting, rents would be maximized at approximately 650 GtC emissions (50% of business-as-usual emissions) implying a virtual certainty of exceeding a 2 °C target and a likelihood of 4 °C warming. - Highlights: • Fossil resource rents form a substantial share of the global GDP. • Fossil resource owners can benefit from climate policy. • Climate targets might be influenced by rent-maximizing aspects

  3. The cross-country implications of alternative climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Aijun; Du, Nan; Wei, Qian

    2014-01-01

    Because of worldwide growing concerns about global climate change, great interest has been expressed in the potential of alternative climate policies to reduce global carbon emissions. In this paper, we compare cross-country implications of alternative climate policies, including unilateral and multilateral climate policies. Our main findings are as follows. Firstly, there are large differences in cross-country effects of alternative unilateral climate policies, when the same given carbon emission reductions are achieved in each abating country respectively. Meanwhile, cross-border externalities undermine efficiency of unilateral climate policies. Secondly, there are significant differences in cross-country implications of alternative multilateral climate policies, when the same global emission reductions are allocated in several different ways among abating countries. Thirdly, it is difficult to reach a stable global climate treaty, since any abating country has the incentive to argue for small carbon emission reductions. Finally, multilateral climate policies can reduce the negative impacts of cross-border externalities, but cannot cure all cross-border externalities. Looking ahead, it will be a great policy challenge for the world to reduce carbon emissions in a cost-effective way. - highlights: • We compare impacts of unilateral climate policies across countries. • We compare effects of alternative multilateral climate policies. • We explore whether cross-border externalities disappear under multilateral climate policies

  4. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Military Installations: Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    the risks of mission impairment during and immediately after tropical and extratropical storms , assuming that sea level rise scenarios intensify these...timescales. .................................... 28 Figure 15: The sedimentary record can be used to obtain long-term storm histories...result in a variety of outcomes across the nation. Key coastal climate stressors include rising sea levels and changes in storm intensity and

  5. Projected impacts to the production of outdoor recreation opportunities across US state park systems due to the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Leung, Yu-Fai; Seekamp, Erin; Walden-Schreiner, Chelsey; Miller, Anna B.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A technical efficiency model identifies where state park systems can be improved. • The technical efficiency model is joined with output of CC policy simulations. • Shifts in operating expenditure under the CC mitigation policy are estimated. • Results reveal substantial variability across states. • Increasing technical efficiency is the best solution to adapt to CC policy impacts. - Abstract: Numerous empirical and simulation-based studies have documented or estimated variable impacts to the economic growth of nation states due to the adoption of domestic climate change mitigation policies. However, few studies have been able to empirically link projected changes in economic growth to the provision of public goods and services. In this research, we couple projected changes in economic growth to US states brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy with a longitudinal panel dataset detailing the production of outdoor recreation opportunities on lands managed in the public interest. Joining empirical data and simulation-based estimates allow us to better understand how the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy would affect the provision of public goods in the future. We first employ a technical efficiency model and metrics to provide decision makers with evidence of specific areas where operational efficiencies within the nation's state park systems can be improved. We then augment the empirical analysis with simulation-based changes in gross state product (GSP) to estimate changes to the states’ ability to provide outdoor recreation opportunities from 2014 to 2020; the results reveal substantial variability across states. Finally, we explore two potential solutions (increasing GSP or increasing technical efficiency) for addressing the negative impacts on the states’ park systems operating budgets brought about by the adoption of a domestic climate change mitigation policy; the

  6. Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-08-07

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. © 2015 The Author(s).

  7. Policy instruments to decrease the climate impact of housing, personal transport and food. Detailed instrument descriptions; Ohjauskeinoja asumisen, henkiloeliikenteen ja ruoan ilmastovaikutusten hillintaeaen. Yksityiskohtaiset ohjauskeinokuvaukset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heiskanen, E.; Perrels, A.; Nissinen, A.; Berghaell, E.; Liesimaa, V.; Mattinen, M. (eds.)

    2012-03-15

    Reducing consumption volumes or introducing climate conscious consumption patterns can be efficient ways to mitigate climate change. Twenty existing policy instruments affecting the greenhouse gas emissions of housing, passenger traffic and food are described in this report of the KUILU-project. The policy instruments and the possibilities to develop effective instrument packages were discussed in two expert workshops, the results of which are presented in annexes of this report. There are already several policy instruments that target on housing and passenger traffic. Their differences in estimated emission reductions are large, which can ease the prioritization and selection of the instruments for further development. So far, only one policy instrument exists that aims to reduce the climate impacts of food choices, namely a Council of State Decision of Principle on Promoting Sustainability in Public Purchasing. However, it includes several measures that can be used to influence private companies and citizens, and thus it opens the field of policy instrument for mitigation of climate impacts of food. According to the expert survey, the most effective policy instrument involved in the analysis was building regulations, and the four most effective instruments after this were the following: gradated procurement tax of cars based on emissions, gradation of car tax, taxation of transport fuels, energy taxes of housing, and the effect of ecodesign directive on appliances. The effectiveness of policy instruments related to food was assessed to be on average level. The five least effective instruments were: EU energy label, voluntary energy experts, the tax of beverage packing, energy certificates, and subsidies for energy efficiency reparation in buildings. However, the expert opinions on the effectiveness of the policy instruments varied significantly. After this report, the KUILU project continued with an analysis of the policy instrument packages and with suggestions

  8. Policy instruments to decrease the climate impact of housing, personal transport and food. Detailed instrument descriptions; Ohjauskeinoja asumisen, henkiloeliikenteen ja ruoan ilmastovaikutusten hillintaeaen. Yksityiskohtaiset ohjauskeinokuvaukset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heiskanen, E.; Perrels, A.; Nissinen, A.; Berghaell, E.; Liesmaa, V.; Mattinen, M. (eds.)

    2012-07-01

    Reducing consumption volumes or introducing climate conscious consumption patterns can be efficient ways to mitigate climate change. Twenty existing policy instruments affecting the greenhouse gas emissions of housing, passenger traffic and food are described in this report of the KUILU-project. The policy instruments and the possibilities to develop effective instrument packages were discussed in two expert workshops, the results of which are presented in annexes of this report. There are already several policy instruments that target on housing and passenger traffic. Their differences in estimated emission reductions are large, which can ease the prioritization and selection of the instruments for further development. So far, only one policy instrument exists that aims to reduce the climate impacts of food choices, namely a Council of State Decision of Principle on Promoting Sustainability in Public Purchasing. However, it includes several measures that can be used to influence private companies and citizens, and thus it opens the field of policy instrument for mitigation of climate impacts of food. According to the expert survey, the most effective policy instrument involved in the analysis was building regulations, and the four most effective instruments after this were the following: gradated procurement tax of cars based on emissions, gradation of car tax, taxation of transport fuels, energy taxes of housing, and the effect of ecodesign directive on appliances. The effectiveness of policy instruments related to food was assessed to be on average level. The five least effective instruments were: EU energy label, voluntary energy experts, the tax of beverage packing, energy certificates, and subsidies for energy efficiency reparation in buildings. However, the expert opinions on the effectiveness of the policy instruments varied significantly. After this report, the KUILU project continued with an analysis of the policy instrument packages and with suggestions

  9. The climate impacts of bioenergy systems depend on market and regulatory policy contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, Derek M; Plevin, Richard J; Cohn, Avery S; Jones, Andrew D; Brandt, Adam R; Vergara, Sintana E; Kammen, Daniel M

    2010-10-01

    Biomass can help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing petroleum in the transportation sector, by displacing fossil-based electricity, and by sequestering atmospheric carbon. Which use mitigates the most emissions depends on market and regulatory contexts outside the scope of attributional life cycle assessments. We show that bioelectricity's advantage over liquid biofuels depends on the GHG intensity of the electricity displaced. Bioelectricity that displaces coal-fired electricity could reduce GHG emissions, but bioelectricity that displaces wind electricity could increase GHG emissions. The electricity displaced depends upon existing infrastructure and policies affecting the electric grid. These findings demonstrate how model assumptions about whether the vehicle fleet and bioenergy use are fixed or free parameters constrain the policy questions an analysis can inform. Our bioenergy life cycle assessment can inform questions about a bioenergy mandate's optimal allocation between liquid fuels and electricity generation, but questions about the optimal level of bioenergy use require analyses with different assumptions about fixed and free parameters.

  10. Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa Pinto, L.M.; Harrison, G.W. [Universidade do Minho, Braga (Portugal). Nucleo de Investigacao em Microeconomia Aplicada, Departmento de Economia

    2000-07-01

    Negotiations in the real world have many features that tend to be ignored in policy modelling. They are often multilateral, involving many negotiating parties with preferences over outcomes that can differ substantially. They are also often multi-dimensional, in the sense that several policies are negotiated over simultaneously. Trade negotiations are a prime example, as are negotiations over environmental policies to abate CO{sub 2}. The authors demonstrate how one can formally model this type of negotiation process. They use a policy-oriented computable general equilibrium model to generate preference functions which are then used in a formal multilateral bargaining game. The case study is on climate change policy, but the main contribution is to demonstrate how one can integrate formal economic models of the impacts of policies with formal bargaining models of the negotiations over those policies. 8 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  11. Robustness of climate metrics under climate policy ambiguity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekholm, Tommi; Lindroos, Tomi J.; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We assess the economic impacts of using different climate metrics. • The setting is cost-efficient scenarios for three interpretations of the 2C target. • With each target setting, the optimal metric is different. • Therefore policy ambiguity prevents the selection of an optimal metric. • Robust metric values that perform well with multiple policy targets however exist. -- Abstract: A wide array of alternatives has been proposed as the common metrics with which to compare the climate impacts of different emission types. Different physical and economic metrics and their parameterizations give diverse weights between e.g. CH 4 and CO 2 , and fixing the metric from one perspective makes it sub-optimal from another. As the aims of global climate policy involve some degree of ambiguity, it is not possible to determine a metric that would be optimal and consistent with all policy aims. This paper evaluates the cost implications of using predetermined metrics in cost-efficient mitigation scenarios. Three formulations of the 2 °C target, including both deterministic and stochastic approaches, shared a wide range of metric values for CH 4 with which the mitigation costs are only slightly above the cost-optimal levels. Therefore, although ambiguity in current policy might prevent us from selecting an optimal metric, it can be possible to select robust metric values that perform well with multiple policy targets

  12. The Social Impact of Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Managing climate change requires that we understand the social value of climate-related decisions. Rational decision-making demands that we weigh the potential benefits of climate-related investments against their costs. To date, it has been challenging to quantify the relative social benefit of living under different climatic conditions, so policy debates tend to focus on investment costs without considering their benefits. Here I will discuss challenges and advances in the measurement of climate's impact on society. By linking data and methods across physical and social sciences, we are beginning to understand when, where, and how climatic conditions have a causal impact on human wellbeing. I will present examples from this burgeoning interdisciplinary field that quantify the effect of temperature on macroeconomic performance, the effects of climate on human conflict, and the long-term health and economic impact of tropical cyclones. Each of these examples provide new insight into previously unknown benefits of various climate management strategies. I conclude by describing new efforts to systematically gather and compare findings from across the research community to support informed and rational climate management decisions.

  13. New arrangements in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arts, B.J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Climate policy, its content and the way it is being organised, is changing, both nationally and internationally. The Kyoto Protocol and its effects form an important catalyst for this process. The focus in climate discourse is increasingly on 'differentiation' and 'flexibilisation', while the role of the industrial sectors involved has changed since 1997, among other things expressed in the increasing influence exerted by the business community and the declining power of the environmental movement. There is a transition underway, from pluralist to private policy arrangements

  14. Oil Trade and Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Malik Curuk; Suphi Sen

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that a depletable resource owner might optimally increase near-term supply in response to environmental policies promoting the development of alternative resources, which might render climate policy ineffective or even counterproductive. This paper empirically confirms this prediction using data on crude oil exports from OPEC to OECD countries between 2001-2010 in a gravity framework. It documents that oil exporters decrease prices and increase quantity of oil exports in re...

  15. Forest policy implications of climate change: Economic impacts and potential mitigation strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodges, D.G.; Belli, K.L.; Watson, W.F.; Regens, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    Increasing mean global temperatures due to rising levels of carbon dioxide and other ''greenhouse'' gases in the atmosphere could affect the distribution of commercially important forests in North America significantly. The temperature increases might outpace the ability of forests to adapt, causing considerable stress and mortality to trees in the southern part of their range without a commensurate increase in growth across the expanding range. If realized, these potential biological impacts on forest distribution and health would affect management decisions substantially and could adversely impact forest-based economies in the United States. Specific effects on forest management include changes in the methods and costs of fire, insect, and disease protection; greater demands on forest lands for conversion to food production; and uncertain changes in site quality. One means of mitigating the effects of CO 2 emissions is to establish tree plantations for carbon sequestration. Preliminary analyses suggest that a program aimed at marginal cropland in the South could store more than 563 million tons of carbon over 45 years, although 90 million tons would be lost due to risks associated with plantations

  16. Technology and international climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, Leon; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall

    2009-01-01

    Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology.

  17. Technology and international climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, Leon; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall

    2009-05-01

    Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology.

  18. Local government and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, H.; Menkveld, M.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Local government in the Netherlands could play a greater role than they currently do in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the country. This fact formed the motivation for initiating the research project on Local Government and Climate Policy. Many local climate options are known in theory. Options for reduction that lie within the sphere of influence of Dutch local government are, for example, sustainable building or encouraging the utilisation of sustainable energy. But actual practice turns out to be rather refractory. If such options are to be implemented, then one has to overcome institutional barriers, such as the co-operation between different departments in the same local authority. The objective of this research is to improve the contribution that local government makes to climate policy

  19. A climate for development. Climate change policy options for Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okoth-Ogendo, H.W.O.; Ojwang, J.B.

    1995-01-01

    The seriousness of the potential impacts of climate change on development in Africa is now well recognized within, and increasingly outside, scientific circles. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a landmark in international environmental governance, providing a mechanism for exchange, negotiation and institution-building to re-direct development towards more efficient use of resources, especially energy. The message of 'A climate for Development' is that unless policy-makers fully understand both the international commitments made under the Convention and the essential national development priorities of their own countries, effective action on climate change is unlikely to be realized. The action needed, however, can at the same time stimulate capacity-building, planning and policy change which would strengthen the economic and ecological base of African countries. The climate change issue has hence brought us face to face with the urgency of the basic issues of sustainable development in Africa. The book discusses key issues that cut across all African countries, such as emissions and their impacts, financial resources and technology transfer for emissions abatement strategies. It then provides a sectoral analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and abatement options focusing on energy, industry, agriculture, forestry and transportation. The book concludes with guidelines for options which may be considered by African countries to ensure that climate change concerns are effectively dealt with in the context of their development priorities. 113 refs

  20. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  1. Impacts of market-based climate change policy on the U.S. iron and steel industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruth, M.; Amato, A.; Davidsdottir, B.

    2000-01-01

    This article presents an assessment of the impacts that policy-induced increases in cost of energy or carbon may have on energy use and emission profiles of the US iron and steel industry. Time series data and engineering information are combined within a dynamic computer model to endogenously specify changes in technologies, fuel mix, and production processes. Results indicate that energy taxes shift production to electric arc furnaces and reduce total energy use more than policies that raise costs of carbon. However, both energy taxes and costs of carbon will result in a similar decrease in carbon emissions when compared to the absence of those policies

  2. The global climate Policy Evaluation Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohan, D.; Stafford, R.K.; Scheraga, J.D.; Herrod, S.

    1994-01-01

    The Policy Evaluation Framework (PEF) is a decision analysis tool that enables decision makers to continuously formulate policies that take into account the existing uncertainties, and to refine policies as new scientific information is developed. PEF integrates deterministic parametric models of physical, biological, and economic systems with a flexible decision tree system. The deterministic models represent greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric accumulation of these gases, global and regional climate changes, ecosystem impacts, economic impacts, and mitigation and adaptation options, The decision tree system captures the key scientific and economic uncertainties, and reflects the wide range of possible outcomes of alternative policy actions. The framework contains considerable flexibility to allow a wide range of scientific and economic assumptions or scenarios to be represented and explored. A key feature of PEF is its capability to address both mitigation policies and investments in anticipatory adaptation to protect ecological and economic systems, as well as interactions among such options. PEF's time structure allows issues related to the timing and flexibility of alternatives to be evaluated, while the decision tree structure facilitates examining questions involving the value of information, contingent actions, and probabilistic representations. This paper is intended to introduce PEF to the global climate policy community. The paper provides an overview of the structure, modules, and capabilities of PEF, and discusses selected results from an initial set of illustrative applications

  3. Uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Erin; Shittu, Ekundayo

    2008-01-01

    Until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models. In this paper, we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together. Taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy. (author)

  4. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  5. From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Agriculture. Research on climate change and its impact on the ... Outputs. Journal articles. Factors affecting households vulnerability to climate change in Swaziland : a case of Mpolonjeni Area Development Programme (ADP). Download PDF ...

  6. International climate policy and trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuik, O.

    2000-01-01

    If a country takes steps to counter the greenhouse effect, it could influence the country's foreign trade. If a large group of countries consider such measures, e.g. the signatories to the Kyoto Protocol, that could possibly have major consequences for global trading patterns. How will the measures work out for countries, industries, and climate policy itself? Can countries mitigate any negative consequences for their trade balance? The results of a study to answer those questions are discussed

  7. Climate change and adaptation policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Jamie [Policy Research Initiative, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Lavender, B. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Smit, B. [Guelph Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Burton, I.

    2001-12-31

    In this document the authors indicate that some level of adaptation will be required as climate change affects our lives. They narrowed their examination to three sectors of Canadian society: human health, agriculture, and northern communities and infrastructure. Within each sector they discussed the policy research needs and the adaptation problems to be expected. Uncertainties remain concerning the magnitude of climate change, its timing and consequences, and further research is required to reduce the uncertainties. Canada presents certain vulnerabilities, and to enhance and improve the resilience of the population toward climate change, some adaptation measures must be put in place to reduce the vulnerabilities. Confidence will come as a by-product of the leadership required to bring about the required adaptation measures, and cooperation is a must between all levels of government, the private sector and society to reach agreement.

  8. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  9. EPIC Forest LAI Dataset: LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale, biogeochemical model) on four forest complexes spanning three physiographic provinces in VA and NC.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data depicts calculated and validated LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale,...

  10. A Scientific Basis for Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-08-01

    The Scientific Council on Climate Issues has been commissioned by the Swedish Government to provide a scientific assessment as a basis for the work of the Climate Committee, the all-party committee for the review of climate policy. An important part of this task is to provide a basis and recommendations for Swedish climate policy targets at national, EU and international level. In the opening chapters, the Council looks at climate change, its reasons and its consequences for ecosystems and society. The Council then makes recommendations concerning Swedish climate policy targets at global, EU and national levels, aimed at averting dangerous impact on the climate. In the concluding chapters, the Council presents a number of possible measures and policy instruments, and outlines the likely costs involved if the goals are to be achieved. Taken as a whole, the document represents a comprehensive basis for policy decisions that consider what needs to be achieved to reduce the risks of climate impact and what is actually achievable, i.e. decisions involving trade-offs between economic benefits and costs. The Council considers: that the EU's GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level should be reduced by 30-40 % by 2020 and by 75-90 % by 2050 if the Union is to take its share of the global responsibility for achievement of the two-degree target; that Sweden's GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level should be reduced by 20-25 % by 2020 and by 70-85 % by 2050 if Sweden is to take its share of the global responsibility for achievement of the two-degree target; that a national emission target for Sweden should be formulated as a target with deductible emissions allowances, i.e., that assessment of target achievement is based on the amount of emission allowances allocated or auctioned by Sweden to activities covered by the EU emissions trading scheme rather than the actual volume of emissions from these activities. The Council has provided an overview of possible measures for

  11. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  12. Oceanic implications for climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeil, Ben I.

    2006-01-01

    Under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea (1982), each participating country maintains exclusive economic and environmental rights within the oceanic region extending 200 nm from its territorial sea, known as the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Although the ocean within each EEZ is undoubtedly an anthropogenic CO 2 sink, it has been over-looked within international climate policy. In this paper I use an area-weighted scaling argument to show that the inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink within national carbon accounts would have significant implications in tracking national greenhouse commitments to any future climate change policy initiative. The advantages and disadvantages for inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink into global climate change policy are also explored. The most compelling argument for including the EEZ CO 2 sink is that it would enhance the equity and resources among coastal nations to combat and adapt against future climate change that will inherently impact coastal nations more so than land locked nations. If included, the funds raised could be used for either monitoring or adaptive coastal infrastructure among the most vulnerable nations. On the other hand, the EEZ anthropogenic CO 2 sink cannot be directly controlled by human activities and could be used as a disincentive for some developed nations to reduce fossil-fuel related greenhouse gas emissions. This may therefore dampen efforts to ultimately reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In consideration of these arguments it is therefore suggested that an 'EEZ clause' be added to Kyoto and any future international climate policy that explicitly excludes its use within national carbon accounts under these international climate frameworks

  13. Climate 2012 - Status and perspectives for Danish climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-03-01

    Through 'Climate 2012'. The Danish government wishes to give a total survey of the Danish climate policy. The intention with 'Climate 2012' is to lead to the Danish Parliament's ratification of the Kyoto-protocol. 'Climate 2012' is the result of a renewed analysis and updating of the Danish policy pursued till now relating to the emission of greenhouse gasses, so that this policy now more precisely includes all elements contained in the Kyoto-protocol. The climate strategy is also the basis for the coming years' national work within the climate area, through implementing a range of analyses and surveys review a range of aspects the climate area, of relevance to the Danish climate policy in the short and long term. Finally the climate strategy is the basis for an evaluation of the demand for establishing a strengthened Danish network within the climate area. (EHS)

  14. European Climate Change Policy Beyond 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ulreich, S.

    2009-01-01

    Europe sees itself on the forefront to combat climate change. Consequently, the European Union has adopted in 2003 a Directive on Emissions Trading and since then, focuses more and more on effective methods to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there is little knowledge about the further development of Climate Change Policy in Europe after 2012. The EU has already started a review process to define the new legislation starting in 2013. Furthermore, negotiations take place to develop a successor of the Kyoto protocol. The European energy sector can deliver valuable input to the discussion about the coming climate goals and how to achieve them, by addressing the importance of new climate-friendly technologies. Furthermore, the impact of climate change goals on the current investment decisions in the energy sector has to be stressed. Europe will certainly not solve the climate problem on its own, but can help to deliver abatement technologies and to prove, that climate change can be reconciled with economic growth - provided a long-term framework is established that is in line with other goals like security of supply and affordable energy.(author).

  15. U.S. climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreau, Blandine

    2011-11-01

    The international climate agreement does make sense if they are supported by the United States, the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gas (GHG) per capita. But this country is now bound by any treaty that forced him to reduce this pollution. The national energy transition is delayed: the lifestyle and the American system of production are still largely rely on fossil fuels. The coming to power of Barack Obama, who announced his intention to engage in action against climate change, had raised hopes of the international community: the Copenhagen compromise and agreements resulting from Cancun also directly the involvement of American and Chinese leaders. Since then, however, the context has changed dramatically: the economic crisis makes priority policies to boost growth. The abandonment of the climate bills in Congress, the Supreme Court decision restricting States' initiatives and actions taken by the Republican opposition to block the regulations of the Federal Agency for Environmental Protection (EPA) led to a slowing of presidential ambitions. They are focusing on an energy security strategy, providing for the operation of large domestic reserves of oil, reducing import dependency - constant of U.S. policy since the presidency of Richard Nixon - the use of alternatives energy, and finally the acceleration of energy efficiency in transport and construction. This orientation requires a staunch support to innovation, according to the will of American leadership in global technology industry green. Internationally, the meeting between Chinese and U.S. presidents in Copenhagen has identified the concessions acceptable to each of these key players in the negotiations. The special envoy of the White House reminds happy: the United States does not object to a new global agreement but discussions about it should only take the implementation of measures adopted in Cancun, whose variation to be the main issue of the Durban conference in late November 2011. Washington

  16. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-10-01

    The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

  17. Boomerang effect of climate policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    Researchers at the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) and the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) project that fossil fuel prices will rise only gradually in the next century. They also expect the gas price mainly to follow the oil price. A stringent global climate policy will do very little to change that. The analysis shows that fossil fuel prices during the next century will depend mainly on the cost of extracting the various conventional and non conventional oil reserves in the world, and by the strategies of OPEC and their allies

  18. Variability of contrail formation conditions and the implications for policies to reduce the climate impacts of aviation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Victoria; Noland, Robert B.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to balance the climate benefits of contrail reduction against the penalties incurred when cruise altitudes are restricted. Altitude restrictions are targeted by selecting, for each 6-h period, the altitude that provides the greatest reduction in contrail for the lowest increase in carbon dioxide emission. Calculations are for western Europe. This paper discusses the variability in contrail formation conditions in the region and presents contrail reductions and carbon dioxide emission increases obtained with this optimised approach, which compare favourably with fixed altitude restrictions. A new method is also developed to estimate contrail fractions within three-dimensional grids. Conclusions discuss potential operational issues associated with a varying altitude restriction policy. (Author)

  19. Comparing climate policies to reduce carbon emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Aijun; Lin, Boqiang

    2013-01-01

    Currently, China is the largest carbon emitter mainly due to growing consumption of fossil fuels. In 2009, the Chinese government committed itself to reducing domestic carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Therefore, it is a top priority for the Chinese government to adopt efficient policy instruments to reduce its carbon intensity. Against this background, this paper develops a general equilibrium model and seeks to provide empirical contributions by comparing the potential impacts of several different policy options to reduce China's carbon emissions. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, these climate policies would affect the structure of economy and contribute to carbon emissions reduction and carbon intensity reduction. Secondly, there would be significant differences in the economic and environmental effects among different climate policies and hence, the government would trade-off among different economic objectives to overcome any potential resistances. Thirdly, there would be considerable differences in the emissions effects of absolute and intensity-based carbon emissions controls, implying that the government might adopt different climate policies for absolute or intensity-based carbon emissions controls. Looking ahead, the government should trade-off among different objectives when designing climate reforms. - Highlights: • We develop a static general equilibrium model to simulate the impacts of climate policies. • We compare the potential impacts of various climate policies in China. • We discuss how to design these policies to make them more effective

  20. ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry [and others

    2009-07-31

    ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

  1. ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry (and others)

    2009-07-31

    ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

  2. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

    2015-06-15

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders.

  3. Climate policies under wealth inequality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Vítor V; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M; Levin, Simon A

    2014-02-11

    Taming the planet's climate requires cooperation. Previous failures to reach consensus in climate summits have been attributed, among other factors, to conflicting policies between rich and poor countries, which disagree on the implementation of mitigation measures. Here we implement wealth inequality in a threshold public goods dilemma of cooperation in which players also face the risk of potential future losses. We consider a population exhibiting an asymmetric distribution of rich and poor players that reflects the present-day status of nations and study the behavioral interplay between rich and poor in time, regarding their willingness to cooperate. Individuals are also allowed to exhibit a variable degree of homophily, which acts to limit those that constitute one's sphere of influence. Under the premises of our model, and in the absence of homophily, comparison between scenarios with wealth inequality and without wealth inequality shows that the former leads to more global cooperation than the latter. Furthermore, we find that the rich generally contribute more than the poor and will often compensate for the lower contribution of the latter. Contributions from the poor, which are crucial to overcome the climate change dilemma, are shown to be very sensitive to homophily, which, if prevalent, can lead to a collapse of their overall contribution. In such cases, however, we also find that obstinate cooperative behavior by a few poor may largely compensate for homophilic behavior.

  4. International climate policy : consequences for shipping

    OpenAIRE

    Mæstad, Ottar; Evensen, Annika Jaersen; Mathiesen, Lars; Olsen, Kristian

    2000-01-01

    This report summarises the main results from the project Norwegian and international climate policy consequences for shipping. The aim of the project has been to shed light on how climate policies might affect shipping, both from the cost side and from the demand side. The project has been divided into three sub-projects, investigating the consequences of climate policies for 1. Optimal shipping operations and management 2. The competitiveness of shipping relative to land transport 3. The tra...

  5. Costs of climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, W O

    1980-03-01

    The surest prospect for future world climate patterns is that they will differ from present ones. What is uncertain is how much, and exactly in what way in different geographical regions. The anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ increase will probably exceed the unknown forcing functions of natural climate change within 30 to 60 years. It is not unlikely that by AD 2040 the world's climate, driven by the CO/sub 2/ increase, will enter a domain warmer than any within the past few million years. The costs of averting this climate change or of absorbing its impact are likely to be huge, even though today imponderable. Not least among these are intangible and unquantifiable costs associated with changes in human values and the quality of everyday life for future generations.

  6. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  7. The method of producing climate change datasets impacts the resulting policy guidance and chance of mal-adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Ekström

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV research underpin strategies for adaptation to climate change and help to conceptualise what life may look like in decades to come. Research draws on information from global climate models (GCMs though typically post-processed into a secondary product with finer resolution through methods of downscaling. Through worked examples set in an Australian context we assess the influence of GCM sub-setting, geographic area sub-setting and downscaling method on the regional change signal. Examples demonstrate that choices impact on the final results differently depending on factors such as application needs, range of uncertainty of the projected variable, amplitude of natural variability, and size of study region. For heat extremes, the choice of emissions scenario is of prime importance, but for a given scenario the method of preparing data can affect the magnitude of the projection by a factor of two or more, strongly affecting the indicated adaptation decision. For catchment level runoff projections, the choice of emission scenario is less dominant. Rather the method of selecting and producing application-ready datasets is crucial as demonstrated by results with opposing sign of change, raising the real possibility of mal-adaptive decisions. This work illustrates the potential pitfalls of GCM sub-sampling or the use of a single downscaled product when conducting IAV research. Using the broad range of change from all available model sources, whilst making the application more complex, avoids the larger problem of over-confidence in climate projections and lessens the chance of mal-adaptation.

  8. Climate Policy and Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This report explores the effects of the EU emissions trading scheme on the aluminium sector (i.e. competitiveness loss and carbon leakage). With its very high electricity intensity, primary aluminium stands out in the heavy industry picture: a sector whose emissions are not capped in the present EU ETS, European aluminium smelters still stand to lose profit margins and, possibly, market shares, as electricity prices increase following CO2 caps on generators' emissions - the famous pass-through of CO2 prices into electricity prices. The analysis includes a method of quantification of this issue, based on two indicators: profit margins and trade flows. As the EU is at the forefront of such policy, the paper provides policy messages to all countries on how trade exposed energy-intensive industries can be 'moved' by carbon constraint. This also is a contentious topic in Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, where ambitious climate policies -- including cap-and-trade systems -- are currently debated.

  9. Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip; hide

    2009-01-01

    This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

  10. Climate policy: Risk-averse governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Paul G.

    2014-04-01

    Relative to the scale of the problem, climate policies worldwide have failed. Now research explains why policy innovations are often inadequate, routinely reflecting the aversion of policymakers to the risk of failure.

  11. Mitigation of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants from Residential Coal Heating and Combined Heating/Cooking Stoves: Impacts on the Cryosphere, Policy Options, and Co-benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chafe, Z.; Anenberg, S.; Klimont, Z.; Kupiainen, K.; Lewis, J.; Metcalfe, J.; Pearson, P.

    2017-12-01

    Residential solid fuel combustion for cooking, heating, and other energy services contributes to indoor and outdoor air pollution, and creates impacts on the cryosphere. Solid fuel use often occurs in colder climates and at higher elevations, where a wide range of combustion emissions can reduce reflectivity of the snow- and ice-covered surfaces, causing climatic warming. Reducing short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), such as black carbon (BC), could have substantial climate and health co-benefits, especially in areas where emissions influence the cryosphere. A review of existing literature and emissions estimates, conducted as part of the Warsaw Summit on BC and Other Emissions from Residential Coal Heating Stoves and Combined Cooking/Heating Stoves, found little nationally-representative data on the fuels and technologies used for heating and combined cooking/heating. The GAINS model estimates that 24 million tonnes of coal equivalent were combusted by households for space heating globally in 2010, releasing 190 kilotons (kt) BC. Emissions from combined cooking/heating are virtually unknown. Policy instruments could mitigate cryosphere-relevant emissions of SLCPs from residential heating or cooking. These include indoor air quality guidelines, stove emission limits, bans on the use of specific fuels, regulatory codes that stipulate when burning can occur, stove changeout programs, and voluntary public education campaigns. These measures are being implemented in countries such as Chile (fuelwood moisture reduction campaign, energy efficiency, heating system improvements), Mongolia (stove renovation, fuel switching), Peru (improved stove programs), Poland (district heating, local fuel bans), United States (stove emission regulation) and throughout the European Community (Ecodesign Directive). Few, if any, of these regulations are likely to reduce emissions from combined cooking/heating. This research team found no global platform to create and share model

  12. Putting Climate Change Adaptation in the Development Mainstream. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrawala, S.; Paris, R.

    2005-03-01

    Climate change poses a serious challenge to social and economic development. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable because their economies are generally more dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources, and because they are less able to cope with the impacts of climate change. How development occurs has implications, in turn, for climate change and for the vulnerability of societies to its impacts. Climate change adaptation needs to be brought into the mainstream of economic policies, development projects, and international aid efforts. Considerable analytical work has been done on how development can be made climate-friendly in terms of helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change, although implementation remains a challenge. Much less attention has been paid to how development can be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change. In a narrow engineering sense, this could involve taking climate changes into account in the siting and design of bridges and other infrastructure. At a policy level, it could involve considering the implications of climate change on a variety of development activities including poverty reduction, sectoral development, and natural resource management. Bridging the gap between the climate change adaptation and development communities, however, is not easy. The two communities have different priorities, often operate on different time and space scales, and do not necessarily 'speak the same language'. Specific information is therefore needed on the significance of climate change for development activities along with operational guidance on how best to adapt to its impacts, within the context of other pressing social priorities. This Policy Brief looks at how far current development policies and programmes are taking climate change risks into account, as well as at ways to improve the 'mainstreaming' of adaptation to climate change in development planning and assistance

  13. Climate geopolitics. Negotiations, strategies, impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gemenne, Francois

    2015-01-01

    As countries are not equal in front of the climate change issue (some contribute more than the others, some will be more heavily impacted, some are more dependent on fossil energies, some could be affected by population movements related to the degradation of their environment), and as countries are to adopt measures for a more sustainable development while facing huge geopolitical challenges which affect international negotiations, this book aims at describing and analysing these issues which illustrate serious imbalances between countries. These issues relate to the development of energy policies, to geographical and demographic constraints. The author describes how the climate has become an international political issue, and a field of complex interactions with international relationships. After having recalled the origins of greenhouse gas emissions and their main expected impacts, he analyses the various responsibilities, describes these different impacts, outlines how global warming is basically unfair: the less responsible countries will be more impacted than the responsible ones. He also discusses mechanisms of international cooperation which have been implemented to address this issue: adaptation and mitigation policies, associated negotiations. He notices that the strongest mitigation efforts are, the least necessary adaptation efforts will be. He discusses the issue of financing and necessary financial and technological transfers to help southern countries in reducing their emissions without compromising their development. He highlights the current status of negotiations, their organisation, the present actors and forces, and their main point of tension

  14. Changing climate-protection policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodtli, M.

    2000-01-01

    This article presents an interview with Baldur Eliasson, a Swiss member of the International Energy Agency's committee on greenhouse gas reduction. Swiss involvement in the programme is discussed and the main areas of attention are described. Scientific and political factors involved in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are discussed and various economic models for the implementation of measures examined. In particular, the co-operation between industry and politics that is necessary to achieve the goals set by the Kyoto protocol on climate change are discussed and participative development projects in China are described. The application of CO 2 -pricing and further economical steering instruments is examined and the influence of public opinion on policy is looked at

  15. Investment under Uncertain Climate Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barradale, Merrill Jones

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of payment probability as an important component of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under uncertain climate policy). In modeling power plant investment decisions, most existing literature uses the expected carbon price (e.g., the price...... actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the surge of activity in 2005–2006 and the subsequent decline in interest in coal-fired power plant development in the U.S. The data for this case study comes from an extensive online survey of 700 U.S. energy...... design better incentives for investing in low-carbon technologies...

  16. Issues in International Climate Policy: Theory and Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.; Gupta, J.; Kok, M.T.J.

    2003-01-01

    Climate change is currently at the center of scientific and political debate, and the need for well-designed international climate policies is widely recognized. Despite this, the complexity of both the climate change problem and the international negotiation process has resulted in a large number

  17. Economy of climate policy. Criticism and alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    The economy of climate policy is characterized by notions as cost-benefit analysis, optimal policy and optimal timing. It is argued that the use of such notions reflects an unjustified optimism with respect to the contribution of economic science to the discussion on climate policy. The complexity of the biosphere and the uncertainty about climatic change, as well as their socio-economic consequences, are extensive. Another economic approach of the climate problem is suggested, based on complexity and historical justice. 12 refs [nl

  18. Policy Case Study – Food Labelling: Climate for Sustainable Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Cosbey, Aaron; Marcu, Andrei; Belis, David; Stoefs, Wijnand; Tuokko, Katja

    2015-01-01

    This study, which is part of the project entitled “Climate for Sustainable Growth“, focuses on one particular policy tool used in the agricultural sector, food labelling. It reviews food carbon labelling when put in place with clear objectives to address climate change. This study examines whether food carbon labels, as climate mitigation tools, are put in place in a sustainable way, by identifying their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainable development: 1) economic 2) social and ...

  19. Moving Toward Climate Budgeting : Policy Note

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2014-01-01

    Climate change action by countries - both mitigation measures and adaptation measures requires planning over a long horizon in the face of uncertainty as well as, for many governments, costly financing in the near term. While flows of international climate finance have grown in recent years, it has become ever clearer that countries need to consider all policy instruments. Climate change i...

  20. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  1. Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigras, S. C.

    2009-12-01

    It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

  2. Co-benefits of climate policies: a potential keystone of climate negotiations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassen, Christophe; Guivarch, Celine; Lecocq, Franck

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5. IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess co-benefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greenhouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of development policies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years

  3. Policy in Transition. New Framework for Russia's Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotov, V.

    2002-07-01

    In 2000, Russia entered the second round of radical reforms of its economic and political system. These changes affect the institutions of the macro- and microeconomic policy, of the energy policy, as well as the institutions of the climate policy. Thus, the framework is currently being built in Russia within which the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are being and will be implemented. Success, or failure, in Russia's interactions with the international community in implementation of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol would depend, particularly, on whether it would be able to establish renovated climate policy institutions in the nearest future. Main provisions of the Kyoto Protocol open good perspectives for the climate policy of Russia. For these favourable perspectives to become a reality, Russia will have to accomplish quite a lot at the domestic, national level. Here, Russia is facing some serious problems. Among them are recently emerged problems with ratification of Kyoto Protocol

  4. Climate Change and Public Health Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A; Vargo, Jason; Hoverter, Sara Pollock

    2017-03-01

    Climate change poses real and immediate impacts to the public health of populations around the globe. Adverse impacts are expected to continue throughout the century. Emphasizing co-benefits of climate action for health, combining adaptation and mitigation efforts, and increasing interagency coordination can effectively address both public health and climate change challenges.

  5. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  6. Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-21

    Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.

  7. Climate change adaptation: policy and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, Amanda H.; Brunner, Ronald D.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Worldwide, the threefold increase in the incidence of extreme weather events since 1960 was been accompanied by a ninefold increase in damages, reaching a peak of US$219 billion in 2005 due to the impacts of Hurricane Katrina. There is strong evidence that the increases in extremes, particularly heatwave and flood, are related to climate change. Adaptive governance presents an opportunity to factor the global problem into many simpler local problems to be addressed in parallel. We propose opening up the established frame, based on insights from field testing the principles of adaptive governance and independently corroborated by other research. First, in terms of science, we propose more intensive research centred on case studies of local communities and extreme events, each of which is unique under a comprehensive description. Differences among them must be taken into account to understand past damages or reduce vulnerability. Second, in terms of policy, we support a procedurally-rational approach, one that accommodates inevitable uncertainties, integrates scientific and local knowledge into policies to advance the community's common interest, and relies on learning from experience. Importantly, the approach is constructed to give something back of value to the participating communities - usually information and insight on their own circumstances - in return for their time, expertise, and good will. Third, in terms of decision-making, we suggest structural changes that begin with harvesting experience from the bottom-up, to make policies that have worked anywhere on the ground available for voluntary adaptation by similar communities elsewhere, and to inform higher-level officials about local resource needs. This approach produces lessons that can be re-contextualised to inform both scientific understanding and policy action in similar contexts directly, without going through generalisations. The common interest lies in reducing the

  8. Energy policies and climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, A.

    1994-01-01

    One year after the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, an assessment is made of what progress is being made towards sustainability. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate change has provided the expert background for action to protect the climate. It lists some of the measured and noticed first signs of climate change as identified by the German Bundestag Enquete Commission, and mentions the effects of climatically induced catastrophes on the world's insurance industry and the fact that the Third World is likely to suffer most from climatic change. A Greenpeace report advocates the phasing out of fossil fuels and of nuclear power as a way to combat climatic change. The article reviews developments relevant to protecting the climate worldwide and specifically in the Netherlands, incorporating Greenpeace's views on these

  9. Climate change policies in the OECD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staahle, C.

    1993-01-01

    The author focuses on the United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development (UNCED), held in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, and on carbon taxation. At the UNCED the Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed by 154 countries. This convention is intended to guide policy makers, and takes into account the great differences that exist between countries with regard to their ability to cater and pay for greenhouse gas emission reductions. It is pointed out that since 1985 the share of CO 2 emissions from non-OECD countries has exceeded that of OECD countries. An overview is given of stated OECD targets on CO 2 emission reductions. The global impact of reductions in OECD countries alone will be limited: if all targets are met, global emissions will be growing with 19% in the coming ten years, compared to 22% in a 'business-as-usual' scenario. It was noted that only very few OECD countries have developed action plans or implemented carbon taxes that could make their targets attainable. Details were given on carbon taxes now in place. It is concluded that no progress will be made if developing countries are not included in climate change policies. Also much work remains to be done in developed countries to meet emission reduction or stabilization targets. 3 figs., 4 tabs

  10. Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

    2014-12-01

    To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

  11. People's opinion of climate policy. Popular support for climate policy alternatives in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, Sjoevaag Marit; Bjoerge, Nils Erik; Ericson, Torgeir; Garnaasjordet, Per Arild; Karlsen, Haakon T.; Randers; Joergen; Rees, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    How can we evaluate whether national climate policies are sufficient? Which moral principles should be the basis of our policy efforts? The answers to these questions are central to the development of any climate policy framework, but not always made explicit in daily political discourse. In this article we seek to redress this imbalance through a survey of popular opinion in Norway.(Author)

  12. People's opinion of climate policy. Popular support for climate policy alternatives in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marino, Sjoevaag Marit; Bjoerge, Nils Erik; Ericson, Torgeir; Garnaasjordet, Per Arild; Karlsen, Haakon T.; Randers; Joergen; Rees, Daniel

    2012-07-01

    How can we evaluate whether national climate policies are sufficient? Which moral principles should be the basis of our policy efforts? The answers to these questions are central to the development of any climate policy framework, but not always made explicit in daily political discourse. In this article we seek to redress this imbalance through a survey of popular opinion in Norway.(Author)

  13. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  14. Agricultural policy environmental eXtender model simulation of climate change impacts on runoff from a small no-till watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term hydrologic data sets are required to quantify the impacts of management, and climate on runoff at the field scale where management practices are applied. This study was conducted to evaluate the impacts of long-term management and climate on runoff from a small watershed managed with no-ti...

  15. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  16. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Parker, Larry; Blodgett, John

    2008-01-01

    The 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change requires that signatories, including the United States, establish policies for constraining future emission levels of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2). The George H. W...

  17. EUROPEAN UNION POLICIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Canter

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges that humanity faces in the 21st century, and for the European Union, combating this phenomenon represents an important element, which is reflected both in the actions carried out in recent years, domestically and internationally, as well as in the EU policy on climate change. Within the EU, regulations were adopted, that demonstrate the importance that the Union confers to the limitation of this phenomenon, stressing at the same time the need for an integrated policy framework to ensure the security for potential investors and a coordinated approach between Member States. This paper will present recent developments for the most important policies to combat and mitigate climate change in the European Union, starting with "20-20-20" objectives, which are to be met through the package "Energy-Climate Change", continuing with 2030 and 2050 timeframes, and finally presenting the main lines of action to combat climate change.

  18. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-09-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

  19. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-01-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation. (letter)

  20. Long-Term Forecast 2012 - An impact analysis of existing policy instruments in energy- and climate area; Laangsiktsprognos 2012 - En konsekvensanalys av gaellande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatomraadet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-01

    The Energy Agency has a mandate that under 'Ordinance on climate reporting' (SFS 2005:626) out projections for the energy sector of the European Parliament and Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a 'Mechanism for monitoring the emissions of the Community greenhouse gas'. This report contains a reference trajectory until 2030, and two sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that results of the report should not be regarded as a proper projection of future energy, but as the impact of current policy instruments given different conditions such as economic growth and fuel prices. The Energy Authority's long-term forecasts are studied energy system's long-term development on the basis of policy instruments and several assumed conditions. The conditions for this long-term prognosis was established in January 2012 and has its basis in the policy instruments decided until the turn of 2011/2012. The work was partially done in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency assignments 'Assignment to provide input to a Swedish road map for Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050' as reported in December 2012. For a short-term development of the energy system the reader is referred to the Energy Authority's short-term forecasts that extend two to three years into the future and that are produced twice a year. Energy Agency's long-term projections are impact assessments with time horizon of 10-20 years which aims to describe the energy system's future development, provided a range of assumed conditions. If any of these conditions change it will also change forecast results. Economic development is an important assumption for the assessment of future energy.

  1. Comment: Legal Liability as Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Hilary Sigman

    2007-01-01

    Several U.S. states have attempted to use of legal liability imposed on greenhouse gas emitters as a public policy instrument for climate change. This brief comment considers the desirability of this approach, focusing on three possible roles for climate change liability: as a source of compensation, as a direct influence on greenhouse gas concentrations, and as a means to facilitate the adoption of ex ante public policies to control greenhouse gases. The strongest argument for liability may ...

  2. Economy and policy of climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faucheux, S.; Joumni, H.

    2005-01-01

    In an economical framework, this book discusses the following topics: policies against the climatic changes, the scientific prospectives facing this policies priority, their costs, the new international market of carbon, the future technological innovations. This book exposes also socio-economic, geopolitical and technological questions bound to theses climatic changes and their regulation. It analyzes more especially the North-South strategies and the flexibility tools challenges of the Kyoto protocol. (A.L.B.)

  3. A globally integrated climate policy for Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernstein, S.; Brunnee, J.; Duff, D.G.; Green, A.J.

    2008-01-01

    This book explored policy ideas and options from various perspectives, including science, law, political science, economics and sociology. The costs, opportunities and imperatives to participate in international diplomatic initiatives were considered along with the opportunities of regional global carbon markets. Canada's current policy on climate change negotiations have been focused on domestic regulation and incentives for technological responses and the setting of a domestic carbon price. The sense of urgency about global warming was discussed and the need for action to respond to the threat of global climate change was emphasized. The book also reviewed Canada's role in international climate policies and presented parameters and imperatives for global regime building in Canada. Domestic policy tools were also reviewed along with policy obstacles and opportunities. refs., tabs., figs.

  4. A history of international climate change policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gupta, J.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an overview of the history of international climate change policy over the last 30 years, divided into five periods. It examines the pre-1990 period, the period leading up to the adoption of the Climate Change Convention, the period of the Kyoto Protocol until US withdrawal,

  5. [Establishment of policy indicators of adaptation to the impact of climate change on the transmission of schistosomiasis and malaria in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Ying-Jun; Li, Shi-Zhu; Xu, Jun-Fang; Zhang, Li; Fu, Qing; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2013-12-01

    To set up a framework of indicators for schistosomiasis and malaria to guide the formulation and evaluation of vector-borne disease control policies focusing on adaptation to the negative impact of climate change. A 2-level indicator framework was set up on the basis of literature review, and Delphi method was applied to a total of 22 and 19 experts working on schistosomiasis and malaria, respectively. The result was analyzed to calculate the weight of various indicators. A total of 41 questionnaires was delivered, and 38 with valid response (92.7%). The system included 4 indicators at first level, i.e. surveillance, scientific research, disease control and intervention, and adaptation capacity building, with 25 indicators for schistosomiasis and 21 for malaria at the second level. Among indicators at the first level, disease surveillance ranked first with a weight of 0.32. Among the indicators at the second level, vector monitoring scored the highest in terms of both schistosomiasis and malaria. The indicators set up by Delphi method are practical,universal and effective ones using in the field, which is also useful to technically support the establishment of adaptation to climate change in the field of public health.

  6. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  7. Climate policy in developing countries and conditional transfers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruebbelke, Dirk T.G.

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role international transfers may play in international climate policy in consideration of the policy's ancillary benefits, such as air quality improvements. Ancillary benefits are especially important in many developing countries, while climate protection benefits or primary benefits play a minor role on the political agenda of these countries. In contrast, industrialized countries have a strong interest in combating climate change. These often neglected asymmetries between the developing and industrialized world affect the impacts of transfers. Interestingly, as we will show, the cost differentials between different environmental technologies among countries are the crucial prerequisite for the functioning of a transfer scheme and not the cost differentials in the execution of climate policy. This result has been overlooked by standard pure public good approaches

  8. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  9. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)/Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 13, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Santos, Maria J., E-mail: M.J.FerreiraDosSantos@uu.nl [Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3572 TC Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2017-05-15

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  10. Uncertain climate policy and the green paradox

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, Sjak A.; Tsur, Y.; Zemel, A.; Moser, E.; Semmler, W.; Tragler, G.; Veliov, V.

    2014-01-01

    Unintended consequences of announcing a climate policy well in advance of its implementation have been studied in a variety of situations. We show that a phenomenon akin to the so-called “Green-Paradox” holds also when the policy implementation date is uncertain. Governments are compelled, by

  11. Energy policy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jean-Baptiste, Ph.; Ducroux, R.

    2001-01-01

    Twenty-two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are released in the air each year from the burning of fossil fuels. The problem of these massive emissions of CO 2 and their climatic impact have become major scientific and political issues. Future stabilization of the atmospheric CO 2 content requires a drastic decrease of CO 2 emissions worldwide. While enhancing natural carbon sinks (reforestation, soils conservation, etc...) can only buy tune for the next decades, energy savings, CO 2 capture/storage and the development of non-fossil energy sources (hydropower, nuclear, wind power,...) can be highly beneficial. In order to secure future energy needs while stabilizing the CO 2 atmospheric concentration around 550 ppm, the ratio of the CO 2 emitted per unit of energy produced must decrease from 2.6 t CO 2 /toe to 0.5-1.1 t CO 2 /toe by 2100. In a growing world economy, now dependent on fossil fuels for 90% of its energy, this will require a vast increase in the supply of carbon-free power. Among these energy sources, hydropower and nuclear energy (operated under western safety and environmental standards) are the most readily available sources capable of supplying vast amount of energy at a competitive price. Wind power is also to be encouraged, as it is expected to approach the competitiveness threshold soon. The French example, where fossil fuel CO 2 emissions were cut by 27% in a matter of a few years (1979-1986) despite increasing energy consumption, suggests that implementing CO 2 stabilization is technically feasible at a competitive price

  12. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-10-16

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

  13. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-01-01

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

  14. Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hartmann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these EU networks have on the adaptive capacity in cities. This paper uses two Dutch cities as an empirical base to evaluate the influence of two EU climate adaptation projects on both the experience of local public officials and the adaptive capacity in the respective cities. The main conclusion is that EU climate adaptation projects do not automatically lead to an increased adaptive capacity in the cities involved. This is due to the political opportunistic use of EU funding, which hampers the implementation of climate adaptation policies. Furthermore, these EU projects draw attention away from local network building focused on the development and implementation of climate adaptation policies. These factors have a negative cumulative impact on the performance of these transnational policy networks at the adaptive capacity level in the cities involved. Therefore, in order to strengthen the adaptive capacity in today’s European cities, a context-specific, integrative approach in urban planning is needed at all spatial levels. Hence, policy entrepreneurs should aim to create linkage between the issues in the transnational city network and the concerns in local politics and local networks.

  15. White Paper No 54 (2000-2001). Norwegian Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This White Paper from the Norwegian Government discusses the climate problem as a global challenge, Norway's strategy for meeting the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, the national climate policies of other countries, Norwegian national climate policy in the short term, and Norwegian national climate policy with the Kyoto agreement in force

  16. Informing climate policy given incommensurable benefits estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, H.D.

    2003-01-01

    Underlying individual positions in debates over climate policy are assessments of benefit and costs - sometimes explicit, but more often implicit. What should we be willing to pay in the near term to reduce human emissions, given our understanding of the value of climate impacts avoided? What actions are justified now to ease adaptation to change that may come in any event? Such assessments may reflect the viewpoint of one nation, a group like Annex B, or the sum of all nations. They may incorporate uncertainty in different ways, and include different assumptions about future behavior as it influences the marginal benefit of action today. But, however done, any recommendation of a limit on human influence in the long term, or of the level of current effort, implies a weighing-up of the benefits expected, for comparison with the costs to be borne. An ability to communicate about perceived benefits thus is essential for authorities seeking a common response to the threat of human-caused change. They need some shared conception of what is at stake in the choice of one level of effort or another, and a common terminology for incorporating these considerations into international negotiations and domestic decision-making. The frustration of OECD governments with the current state of benefit information is revealed in the ambitious set of objectives set for this benefits project (OECD, 2002). They seek recommendations on how to develop a framework to assess not only the costs but the benefits of climate strategies, to improve the accounting for benefits to facilitate goal-setting for international policies. Besides this focus on global benefits, the OECD also looks for results that are relevant to national policy-making and to the development of adaptation strategies. Particular attention is asked to problems of accounting for non-market benefits, along with the intersection of climate policy with developing country issues. It is appropriate that the OECD seeks a

  17. Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tompkins, Emma L.; Neil Adger, W.

    2005-01-01

    Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions

  18. Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

  19. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  20. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  1. Policy options for stabilizing global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lashof, D.A.; Tirpak, D.A.

    1990-12-01

    This report to congress by the US EPA explains the greenhouse effect and its influence on global climate. It outlines the trends in the greenhouse gases - their concentration history, distribution, sources and sinks and chemical and radiative properties. Climate change processes are discussed including climate feedbacks. Human activities affecting trace gases and climate are explained, followed by a chapter on the technical options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions which looks at energy services, energy supply, industry, forestry and agriculture. The future is considered, and the final chapters are concerned with policy options and international cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 934 refs., 102 figs., 84 tabs

  2. Tropical forest policies for the global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Groot, W.T.; Kamminga, E.M.

    1995-01-01

    A summary is given of the approach and findings of the NRP project 'Local Actors and Global Tree Cover Policies'. The aim of this project was to identify the most effective and efficient options for global climate policies focusing on the tropical forest. Tropical deforestation is a process with very complex and variable causes. In the project's conclusions, therefore, much care has been given to arrive at a coherent image of what really counts most in the myriad of factors, actors, policy levels and policy options. 5 refs

  3. Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, In Chang; Tol, Richard S.J.; Hofkes, Marjan W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the “strong” tail-effect from arising, at least under some conditions such as bounded temperature increases, low risk aversion, low damage costs, and bounded utility function. More specifically, the fat-tailed risk with respect to a climate parameter does not necessarily lead to an unbounded carbon tax. In this case, the basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. - Highlights: • A fat tail is classified and the tail effect on climate policy is discussed. • The optimal carbon tax is not necessarily unbounded. • The basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. • This is a numerical confirmation of the recent theoretical research.

  4. Unemployment effects of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babiker, Mustafa H.; Eckaus, Richard S.

    2007-01-01

    This paper models the unemployment effects of restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, embodying two of the most significant types of short-term economic imperfections that generate unemployment: sectoral rigidities in labor mobility and sectoral rigidities in wage adjustments. A labor policy is also analyzed that would reduce the direct negative economic effects of the emissions restrictions. The politics of limiting greenhouse gas emissions are often dominated by relatively short-term considerations. Yet the current economic modeling of emissions limitations does not embody economic features that are likely to be particularly important in the short term, in particular, the politically sensitive unemployment rate. Moreover, only a few of these studies also consider policies that would offset the negative direct economic effects of emissions restrictions. For plausible estimates of the parameters, the model shows that, with the labor market imperfections, if there were no offsetting policies, the reductions in GNP in the U.S. in the first 10 years after emissions restrictions were imposed would be as much as 4%. However, if there were two policies, instead of just one: a counteracting labor market policy, as well as the emissions restrictions, the negative direct economic effects could be completely eliminated

  5. Equity Impacts of Environmental Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Antonio M. Bento

    2013-01-01

    This article surveys recent literature on the equity impacts of environmental policy. We focus on studies that look at the distribution of costs and benefits of alternative environmental policies. We also examine potentially important trade-offs between efficiency and equity that arise in the context of environmental policy, as well as transition effects. In many of the applications surveyed here, environmental policies can be regressive. Strategies are discussed to reduce this regressivity t...

  6. Transport policies related to climate change mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Kappel, Jannik

    and their results are introduced as well. To provide an overview of current trends, related scientific projects and other analyses on climate change mitigation and transport are given in the report. The references used in this report can also serve as a source of data and inspiration for the reader. This report......This report presents the Danish national policies on reducing the emissions of greenhouse gasses and reducing Denmark’s dependency on fossil fuels in the transport sector, as well as some of the results of the policies. Systematic focus on efficient transport and climate mitigation started in 2008...... challenges for the transport sectors, which has not yet been systematically analysed from any Governmental body. In this report we list projects which have done so. The first chapter describes policies and initiatives of international relevance within climate mitigation. The following chapters explain...

  7. Clashing strategic cultures and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ceronsky, M.; Hepburn, C.; Obersteiner, M.; Yamagata, Y.

    2004-07-01

    Kagan (2002) argues that the different responses of Europeans and Americans to major strategic and international challenges is not simply due to differences in the current administrations, but rather results from (i) a power gap and (ii) differing ideologies. This article applies Kagan's theory to climate policy, employing terrorism policy as a point of comparison. We argue that the power gap between Europe and America is unable to explain the differences in climate policy. In contrast, the ideology gap may indeed have some explanatory value. Furthermore, we argue that one additional feature is critical - the costs and benefits imposed by climate change and terrorism prevention, and the process by which such costs and benefits are evaluated, differ between America and Europe. (author)

  8. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barron, Robert; McJeon, Haewon

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO 2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO 2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO 2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

  9. Canada's climate change policy in context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernstein, S.

    2000-10-01

    Climate change has a wide range of implications for the health, well-being, and economic prospects for Canadians, and for the ecological systems that sustain life on this planet. The overwhelming scientific opinion, world leaders and even a growing number of corporate leaders now agree that the Earth is undergoing a significant and unusual warming period as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There is also wide agreement that much of this build-up is anthropogenic, and that a global effort is required to slow this trend. Because climate change is a global problem, it requires global solutions by way of reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, the Kyoto Agreement of 1997 constitutes a major breakthrough, even though it takes only a small step towards towards altering the human impact on global climate. Although some 80 states, plus the European Union signed the Kyoto Protocol, it remains unclear when it will come into force because the majority of states have failed to ratify it, pending the resolution of a variety of technical and operational details. Canada is the second highest emitter of greenhouse gases (16 tonnes per capita, compared to world average of 3.6 tonnes per capita). This, combined with Canada's foreign policy goals of playing a leading role in taking action and preserving its reputation as an honest broker, makes the challenge of meeting Canada's Kyoto commitments especially pressing. The purpose of this paper is to explain Canada's climate change policy in the context of these international and domestic pressures. The paper identifies the main climate change-related policy challenges, international responses to date and the constraints and opportunities open to Canada in the light of its economy, its federalist political structure, and place in the world as a middle power, as well as its geographic situation, natural resources and environmental endowment. There is a detailed discussion of the Kyoto

  10. Does the Bush Administration's climate policy mean climate protection?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, Odile; Perkaus, James F.

    2004-01-01

    The paper analyzes the two major components of the Bush Administration's climate policy, namely an emission intensity target and a technology strategy. The question is whether those components will generate net emission reductions that will contribute to the stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentration at a safe level in the long run. It comes out that the Bush Administration climate policy does not guarantee any meaningful contribution to climate protection. The lenient emission intensity target set by the Administration will most likely allow near term emissions to grow. In the long run, the Bush Administration places a big bet on future climate-friendly technological breakthroughs to cost-effectively compensate for the current and near term net emission increases. But the outcomes of those technological developments are uncertain in terms of emission reduction potential, cost, and timing. The way towards enhanced climate protection will most likely not come from the policies of the current Administration, but rather from the growing concern about the climate issue in Congress and at the state, corporate and civil society levels. These combined forces may raise the playing field at the federal level in the near future

  11. Climate protection policy. On Germany's pioneer role

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuebler, Knut

    2014-01-01

    After a downward trend of many years Germany's energy-related CO 2 emissions have risen again slightly over the past two years. This increase has prompted the federal government to initiate a new climate protection action campaign. After almost 30 years of experience in the field of climate protection policy there is every reason for Germany to be more consistent in using its political scope to act on the unrestrained increase in global greenhouse gas emissions.

  12. Climate Change Science,Technology & Policy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Table of contents. Climate Change Science,Technology & Policy · Slide 2 · Slide 3 · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Millions at Risk from Parry et al., 2001 · Slide 7 · Slide 8 · Slide 9 · Slide 10 · Climate Change · Is the global warming in the 20th century due to the increase in radiation emitted by the sun? Frohlich C, Lean J. 1998; ...

  13. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  14. Climate and Energy Policy in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Csete

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The energy problem has been redefined as one of the most important elements of sustainable development by climate change, adaptation and mitigation. Meeting energy needs is always a current issue in Hungary, irrespective of climate change because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, limited opportunities to replace them with domestic production, and the pollution associated with using fossil energy sources. Increasing effectiveness and saving energy can provide relatively short-term solutions with bearable costs and a relatively quick return on investment. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview about the climate and energy policy in Hungary with a special focus on the new energy strategy. Energy policy has a pivotal role in the economic recovery plan of the Hungarian government. The National Energy Strategy 2030 taking shape in Hungary takes climate policy into account with respect to adaptation and mitigation and lists renewable energy sources as the second most important tool for achieving strategic goals. As in most countries, it is also possible in Hungary to introduce climate strategy measures with zero social costs. The expedient management of climate change requires the combination of prevention, adaptation and dissemination initiatives. Strategies must meet a dual requirement: they must face the economic risks associated with premature measures, while also considering the adverse effects of delay.

  15. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  16. Political motives in climate and energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruvoll, Annegrete; Dalen, Hanne Marit; Larsen, Bodil M.

    2012-07-01

    Standard economic theory provides clear guidance on the design of cost-efficient policy in the presence of imperfect markets and externalities. However, observed policies reveal extensive discrepancies between principles and practise. Based on interviews with core politicians from the Norwegian parliament, we investigate causes for the lack of cost efficiency in climate and energy policy. We find that politicians agree with the notion of cost efficiency in principle, but rather than ascribing efficient instruments directed at specific policy goals, they include concerns for industrial and regional development, income distribution and employment in the environmental policy design. Lacking insight in the functioning of economic instruments and perceptions of a non-binding budget constraint also violate the requirements for efficient policy decisions. The findings point to the role of economists and social scientists to communicate the functioning of complex instruments. Improved compensation procedures could help reduce the politicians' incentives to undermine efficiency in order to avoid unwanted distributional effects.(Author)

  17. Economic development, climate and values: making policy

    OpenAIRE

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The ...

  18. Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howarth, R. B.

    2010-12-01

    The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

  19. International trade and climate change policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brack, D.; Grubb, M.; Windram, C.

    2000-01-01

    Can the World Trade Organisation deal with climate change? Can a world of liberalised trade implement the Kyoto Protocol? As trade and environment head for a global collision, this book provides an essential guide to one of the key confrontations. It analyzes the conflicts now intensifying. How will climate change policies, including energy and carbon taxation and the removal of energy subsidies, affect overall trade structures and volumes? Will countries tackling climate change become less competitive? What of taxing international aviation and marine fuels? Will the 'flexibility mechanisms' of the Kyoto Protocol, such as emissions trading, fall under WTO disciplines? Can trade restrictions be applied to enforce the Kyoto Protocol? (Author)

  20. Aligning climate policy with finance ministers' G20 agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edenhofer, Ottmar; Knopf, Brigitte; Bak, Céline; Bhattacharya, Amar

    2017-07-01

    There is no longer a choice between climate policy and no climate policy. G20 finance ministers have to play a key role in implementing smart climate policies like carbon pricing. Yet they remain reluctant to take advantage of the merits of carbon pricing for sound fiscal policy.

  1. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  2. Turkey's climate policy between ambition and reality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieler, Wolfgang; Cetinyilmaz, Hakan

    2015-01-01

    This volume examines the Turkish climate policy and its main influencing factors. In what policy area, the priorities of Turkey between environmental, climate, and growth policies are to be located? What are the shaping factors of Turkish climate policy? What driving torques? In Turkish and international political science analyzes the subject has been previously treated only in basic approaches, so that the volume can be understood as a basic introduction to the Turkish climate policy. [de

  3. Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto, V.M.; Löschel, A.; Reilly, J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward-looking CGE model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find the

  4. Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrew, Robbie M; Peters, Glen P; Davis, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    A growing number of countries regulate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions occurring within their borders, but due to rapid growth in international trade, the products consumed in many of the same countries increasingly rely on coal, oil and gas extracted and burned in other countries where CO 2 is not regulated. As a consequence, existing national and regional climate policies may be growing less effective every year. Furthermore, countries that are dependent on imported products or fossil fuels are more exposed to energy and climate policies in other countries. We show that the combined international trade in carbon (as fossil fuels and also embodied in products) increased from 12.3 GtCO 2 (55% of global emissions) in 1997 to 17.6 GtCO 2 (60%) in 2007 (growing at 3.7% yr −1 ). Within this, trade in fossil fuels was larger (10.8 GtCO 2 in 2007) than trade in embodied carbon (6.9 GtCO 2 ), but the latter grew faster (4.6% yr −1 compared with 3.1% yr −1 for fuels). Most major economies demonstrate increased dependence on traded carbon, either as exports or as imports. Because energy is increasingly embodied in internationally traded products, both as fossil fuels and as products, energy and climate policies in other countries may weaken domestic climate policy via carbon leakage and mask energy security issues. (letter)

  5. Time to refine key climate policy models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Alexander R.

    2018-05-01

    Ambition regarding climate change at the national level is critical but is often calibrated with the projected costs — as estimated by a small suite of energy-economic models. Weaknesses in several key areas in these models will continue to distort policy design unless collectively addressed by a diversity of researchers.

  6. Efficient and Equitable Climate Change Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Socrates Kypreos

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This report describes the Integrated Assessment Model TIAM-MACRO, which is a Ramsey-type macroeconomic growth model linked with a technology-rich engineering model of the energy-system and with a stylized sub-model of climate change. TIAM-MACRO contributes to coherent and consistent policy analyses at both the world and regional level and correlates demand for energy services to macro-economic developments across regions and time until the end of the 21st century. With the help of this model, two contrasting scenarios are defined related to the reference development (BASE case and the 2 °C (2DS case that follow long-term policies on climatic change mitigation in the spirit of the Paris agreement. Finally, we define ex-post market and non-market damages together with the damages related to Local Atmospheric Pollutants (LAP. The stringency of the 2DS case requires the complete restructuring of the energy and transport systems to be relying on carbon-free technologies and fuels together with technologies of negative emissions, at high costs. The study concludes that carbon policies not only consist of an insurance against the risk of climate change but also improve the ambient air quality, as they have secondary benefits that compensate for part of the cost of carbon control. However, the stringency of the 2DS case is so demanding that the cost of climate policies is above benefits.

  7. Climate policy: Transparency for Loss and Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mechler, Reinhard

    2017-10-01

    Loss and Damage (L&D) has been gaining traction since the Paris Agreement took the issue on as a separate article, arguably creating a third pillar of international climate policy. Debate so far has led to vague definitions of the remit of the L&D mechanism; research on actor perspectives may help to propel this discourse forward.

  8. Climate change: wildfire impact

    OpenAIRE

    Dautbasic, Mirza; Crabtree, J.; Ioras, Florin; Abrudan, Ioan Vasile; Ratnasingam, Jega

    2011-01-01

    Every ecosystem is a complex organization of carefully mixed life forms; a dynamic and particularly sensible system. Consequently, their progressive decline may accelerate climate change and vice versa, influencing flora and fauna composition and distribution, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. Climate changes effects are the principal topics of this volume. Written by internationally renowned contributors, Biodiversity loss in a changing planet offers attractive study cases focused on bi...

  9. Rain and sunshine in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Moor, A.

    2002-01-01

    The legal framework of the Kyoto Protocol was established during the 7th Climate Conference in Marrakech (November 2001), which opened the road to ratification and implementation. There was a single, major exception, however. the United States indicated they would not ratify the treaty since, in their view, it was fundamentally flawed. President Bush recently proposed a different approach that he saw as a better alternative to Kyoto. What is clear in any case is that both the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the alternative approach have major consequences for international climate policy. What is the significance of the Kyoto Protocol now? And what influence has America's withdrawal had? What do President Bush's proposals entail and what are the most important differences from the Kyoto Protocol? What are the implications for international climate policy?

  10. Energy security and climate policy. Assessing interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-03-28

    World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising. This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly. The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The 'indicators' are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.

  11. Senegal's national policy to combat climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dia Toure, F.

    2007-01-01

    Senegal's participation in the Earth Summit meeting in Rio in 1992 demonstrated its national political stand towards environmental causes. An initiative was taken to educate the population on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in relation to different sectors, including the energy sector, transportation, agriculture, forestry and waste management. Later, a group of negotiators followed the works of subsidiary bodies of the Kyoto Agreement. As a non-Annex 1 developing country, Senegal is not required to reduce GHG emissions as are Annex 1 countries. Therefore, Senegal has used judicial tools to benefit from the transfer of clean technologies. The implementation of Senegal's national adaptation action plan has involved global organizations, sectorial studies, public consultations, prioritization and project formulation. The action plan addresses concerns such as water resources, variation in precipitation, drought, agriculture and its vulnerability, and negative impacts due to climate change. The technical solutions include the promotion of agroforestry technologies; crop diversification; water conservation; community wood use; and, prevention of bush fires. Since several geographical regions within Senegal are also affected by global warming, policies are being formulated to protect humid zones and help in the fight against invasive species. Senegal imports much of its energy sources. Households rely on wood and coal for energy. New measures are being adapted and new sustainable technologies are being proposed for fireplaces, better recycling, and better landfill sites. 8 figs

  12. Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Lessmann, Kai; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2009-01-01

    This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 o C since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 o C temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 o C). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing

  13. Economic and policy issues in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1998-01-01

    Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

  14. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human

  15. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Morrow

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1 the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2 the context within which the policy was developed; 3 the relevant processes; and 4 the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should

  16. Obstacles in the climate policy arena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manders, T.; Tang, P.

    2001-01-01

    Implementing climate policy is not a straightforward matter. International negotiations during the recent climate conference in The Hague ended in disagreement. With the present position of the United States chances to reach an agreement are even slimmer than ever. One of the obstacles is to what extent trade in emission rights should be allowed. Economically speaking, there are strong arguments for allowing as much flexibility as possible. Ironically, our analysis shows that the party favouring restrictions on emissions trade, the European Union, suffers most from curtailing flexibility. Another obstacle which comes up when addressing more ambitious goals in climate policy is the involvement of developing countries. A treaty should aim at emissions reductions in developing countries as well. If the potentially serious consequences of the greenhouse effect are to be avoided, that is even essential. To induce these reductions, the developed countries could consider to compensate the developing countries. For industrialised countries compensation has the effect to raise the costs of climate policy considerably

  17. Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hwang, I.C.; Reynès, F.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty plays a significant role in evaluating climate policy, and fat-tailed uncertainty may dominate policy advice. Should we make our utmost effort to prevent the arbitrarily large impacts of climate change under deep uncertainty? In order to answer to this question, we propose a new way of

  18. Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurlbert, M.; Gupta, J.

    2016-01-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to

  19. Charter School Discipline: Examples of Policies and School Climate Efforts from the Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kern, Nora; Kim, Suzie

    2016-01-01

    Students need a safe and supportive school environment to maximize their academic and social-emotional learning potential. A school's discipline policies and practices directly impact school climate and student achievement. Together, discipline policies and positive school climate efforts can reinforce behavioral expectations and ensure student…

  20. Chinese climate policy - Institutions and intent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques

    2011-06-01

    Until the late 1990's, the balance of Chinese energy production and consumption was treated by the rest of the world as a net figure. No one knew what was going on inside the Chinese economy - it was a black box. As far as anyone was concerned, the Chinese would not soon be a major factor in world energy markets. Energy policy-makers realized how totally blind they were in 2004 when Chinese electricity production could not keep up with internal demand and the world experienced a surge in liquids demand as Chinese entrepreneurs fired up generator sets across the economy. No country has confronted the need to collect data and formulate coherent policy for nearly a billion and a half consumers. A number of institutional arrangements have succeeded each other until now, when stronger energy policy and administrative functions of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) are gaining traction. NDRC vice-chairman Zhang Guobao has maintained a steady hand on Chinese energy-policy evolution for several years - overseeing the increasing coherence of Chinese domestic and international energy policy - but the tension with powerful state enterprises and other vested interests still effectively defies efforts to truly centralize Chinese national-level energy policy and program authority. This study identifies the nature of the forces that drive or constrain change within China's energy sector, and explores the Chinese approach to climate change. Contents: 1. The Institutions of Energy Governance in china. 2. China's Foreign Energy Policy. 3. China's position and policy on climate change

  1. Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

    2014-12-01

    Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

  2. Strategies for reducing the impacts of surface transportation on global climate change : a synthesis of policy research and state and local mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    Climate change is likely to have more impact on the future of surface transportation than any other issue. The challenges and implications for surface transportation and for state DOTs include: the need to support major GHG reductions, the need to me...

  3. Germany's climate policy: Facing an automobile dilemma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gössling, Stefan; Metzler, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Germany has one of the most ambitious climate policy goals worldwide, having pledged to reduce national emissions by 40% by 2020, and 80–95% by 2050 (base year: 1990). 2015 data suggests that progress on decarbonisation has slowed, also because emissions from the transport sector have grown. Road transport, which is contributing 20.5% to Germany's CO_2 emissions, has become a major obstacle to achieving the country's policy goals. This paper analyses energy use from road transport in order to provide a better understanding of emissions from this sub-sector. Data is derived from representative longitudinal household surveys as well as mobility and fuel diaries for the period 2002–2015. Analysis reveals significant growth in energy-inefficient car choices, as well as considerable differences in mobility patterns (distances driven, driving styles) and actual fuel consumption between car segments. Findings suggest that German transport policies will fail to deliver significant emission reductions if complexities in car model choices and use patterns are ignored. Both command-and-control and market-based measures will be needed to align the transport sector with climate goals, while persisting policy inconsistencies will also have to be addressed. Findings are of central relevance for EU-wide and global climate policy in the transport sector. - Highlights: • Emissions from German road transport have remained constant between 1990 and 2015. • Non-progress on transport decarbonisation is barrier to national mitigation goals. • Analysis shows that wide range of complexities are overlooked by government. • Policies need to consider car fleet segmentation and driving patterns. • Command-and-control as well as market-based measures needed.

  4. Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Johanna

    2017-04-01

    In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

  5. Energy savings in drastic climate change policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isoard, Stephane; Wiesenthal, Tobias

    2005-01-01

    This paper reports a climate change policy scenario compatible with long-term sustainable objectives set at EU level (6th Environment Action Plan). By setting ambitious targets for GHG emissions reduction by 2030, this normative scenario relies on market-based instruments and flexible mechanisms. The integrated policy that is simulated (i.e. addressing energy, transport, agriculture and environmental impacts) constitutes a key outlook for the next 5-year report of the European Environment Agency (EEA). This scenario highlights what it would take to drastically curb EU GHG emissions and how much it might cost. The findings show that such a 'deep reduction' climate policy could work as a powerful catalyst for (1) substantial energy savings, and (2) promoting sustainable energy systems in the long term. The implications of this policy lever on the energy system are many-fold indeed, e.g. a substantial limitation of total energy demand or significant shifts towards energy and environment-friendly technologies on the supply side. Clear and transparent price signals, which are associated with market-based instruments, appear to be a key factor ensuring sufficient visibility for capital investment in energy efficient and environment-friendly options. Finally it is suggested that market-based policy options, which are prone to lead to win-win situations and are of particular interest from an integrated policy-making perspective, would also significantly benefit from an enhanced energy policy framework

  6. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics....

  7. Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Simon [London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) (United Kingdom); Asheim, Geir B. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Economics

    2011-08-15

    Empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism (DU). DU is controversial, both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for climate policies, where the discounting of future utility gains from present abatement efforts makes it harder for such measures to justify their present costs. In this paper, we propose sustainable discounted utilitarianism (SDU) as an alternative principle for evaluation of climate policy. Unlike undiscounted utilitarianism, which always assigns zero relative weight to present utility, SDU is an axiomatically based criterion, which departs from DU by assigning zero weight to present utility if and only if the present is better off than the future. Using the DICE integrated assessment model to run risk analysis, we show that it is possible for the future to be worse off than the present along a 'business as usual' development path. Consequently SDU and DU differ, and willingness to pay for emissions reductions is (sometimes significantly) higher under SDU than under DU. Under SDU, stringent schedules of emissions reductions increase social welfare, even for a relatively high utility discount rate. (orig.)

  8. Climate change policy is an energy problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, C.; Lightfoot, H.D.

    1999-01-01

    In an important respect the climate change (global warming) problem is an energy problem. Any policy aimed at substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will require large amounts of carbon free energy as substitutes for fossil fuels. No conceivable rates of improvement in energy efficiency and/or changes in lifestyles will obviate the need for vast amounts of carbon free energy if GHG emissions are to be reduced and the atmospheric concentration of carbon eventually stabilized. Where will such large amounts of carbon free energy come from? The renewable energies (solar, wind, biomass) are dilute and enormously land-using. Their potential contribution is seemingly limited in a world in which competing demands for land for food production, living space, leisure activities, ecological preserve, and natural resource production are increasing. Nuclear energy is controversial (fission) or problematic (fusion). Fuel cells require hydrogen which must be produced using some other form of energy. Tapping the earth's mantle with its vast amount of geothermal energy may be a future possibility. The present limitations of existing alternatives to fossil fuels suggest climate change policy should focus to a greater extent on what 'can' be done, rather than the present emphasis on what 'should' be done. Once refocused, the aim of climate policy should be to spur a decades long search for and development of new carbon free energy sources and technologies capable of displacing fossil fuels and of eventually meeting the world's baseload energy requirements. (author)

  9. Does climate policy lead to relocation with adverse effects for GHG emissions or not? A first assessment of the spillovers of climate policy for energy intensive industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikonomou, V.; Patel, M.; Worrell, E.

    2004-12-01

    Energy-intensive industries play a special role in climate policy. World-wide, industry is responsible for about 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. The emission intensity makes these industries an important target for climate policy. At the same time these industries are particularly vulnerable if climate policy would lead to higher energy costs, and if they would be unable to offset these increased costs. The side effects of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries are typically referred to as 'spillovers'. Negative spillovers reduce the effectiveness of a climate policy, while positive spillovers increase its effectiveness. This paper provides a review of the literature on the spillover effects of climate policy for carbon intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased share of non-Annex 1 countries. However, this trend is primarily driven by demand growth, and there is no empirical evidence for a role of environmental policy in these development patterns. In contrast, climate models do show a strong carbon leakage of emissions from these industries. Even though that climate policy may have a more profound impact than previous environmental policies, the results of the modelling are ambiguous. The energy and carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries is rapidly declining in most developing countries, and reducing the 'gap' between industrialized and developing countries. Still, considerable potential for emission reduction exists, both in developing and industrialized countries. Technology development is likely to deliver further reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions. Despite the potential for positive spillovers in the energy-intensive industries, none of the models used in the analysis of spillovers of climate policies has an endogenous representation of technological change for the energy-intensive industries. This underlines the need for a better understanding of

  10. Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shunli

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

  11. Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Clarke, Leon E. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Kyle, G. Page [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Davies, Evan [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Wise, Marshall A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved

  12. Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

  13. Science and climate policy: A history lesson

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrick, C.N.

    1992-01-01

    As a nation, the authors are engaged in a great deal of soul searching about the consequences of possible global climate change, aware that the authors must make choices but unsure when to make them or what they should be. Contrary to popular belief, this is not the first time that the nation will have to make major policy decisions based on the possibility of human-induced climate change. More than 100 years ago, the US government encouraged wide-scale settlement and development of the West, partly because of a scientifically grounded belief that early Western pioneers had caused the climate to become moister. Today, the US Global Climate Research Program has embarked on the task of resolving the many scientific uncertainties. As Powell learned a century ago, however, such information is critical but not sufficient to determining how a nation might respond to risk. If global climate research and assessment are to be driven by social relevance rather than scientific curiosity, these studies must reflect sociocultural as well as physical factors

  14. International Survey on agriculture-climate change policy instruments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernagut, M.; Priem, M.; Sorgeloos, L.

    2011-09-15

    The title study provides an international overview of agriculture-climate change policy instruments for the reduction of methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The aim of this study is to clarify how national and/or international agriculture-climate-policies could or should be instrumented during the coming three to five years to achieve significant emission reductions of methane and nitrous oxide in the Dutch agricultural sector by 2020. The study includes an international survey, a quick-scan inventory of useful and inspiring examples of policy and reduction measures to reduce non CO2 greenhouse gases. ERM used an approach consisting out of three phases. In the first phase countries were selected on the basis of emissions and Kyoto protocol targets. In the second phase policy measures of these countries were listed, based on publicly available national and international sources. In a third phase a sub-set of this selection was analyzed in-depth through communications with local focal points and additional review of policy documents, to enhance the understanding of context, impact and results of each of these policies and measures.

  15. Redistribution effects of energy and climate policy: The electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirth, Lion; Ueckerdt, Falko

    2013-01-01

    Energy and climate policies are usually seen as measures to internalize externalities. However, as a side effect, the introduction of these policies redistributes wealth between consumers and producers, and within these groups. While redistribution is seldom the focus of the academic literature in energy economics, it plays a central role in public debates and policy decisions. This paper compares the distributional effects of two major electricity policies: support schemes for renewable energy sources, and CO 2 pricing. We find that the redistribution effects of both policies are large, and they work in opposed directions. While renewables support transfers wealth from producers to consumers, carbon pricing does the opposite. More specifically, we show that moderate amounts of wind subsidies can increase consumer surplus, even if consumers bear the subsidy costs. CO 2 pricing, in contrast, increases aggregated producer surplus, even without free allocation of emission allowances; however, not all types of producers benefit. These findings are derived from an analytical model of electricity markets, and a calibrated numerical model of Northwestern Europe. Our findings imply that if policy makers want to avoid large redistribution they might prefer a mix of policies, even if CO 2 pricing alone is the first-best climate policy in terms of allocative efficiency. -- Graphical abstract: Display Omitted -- Highlights: •CO 2 pricing and renewables support have strikingly different impacts on rents. •Carbon pricing increases producer surplus and decreases consumer surplus. •Renewable support schemes (portfolio standards, feed-in tariffs) do the opposite. •We model these impacts theoretically and quantify them for Europe. •Redistribution of wealth is found to be significant in size

  16. American Pro-Biofuel and Climate Policies: Impact on the Energy Choices of Brazil and the United States and the Carbon Footprint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakravorty, Ujjayant; Hubert, Marie-Helene; Moreaux, Michel

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, a partial trade equilibrium model is developed to explore the impacts of US energy policies on the use and trade of first-generation biofuels (ethanol) and second-generation biofuels (ligno-cellulosic ethanol) in the United-States and Brazil. In addition, we investigate their impacts on direct and indirect carbon emissions. The first policy is the biofuels mandatory target. The second defines a cap on carbon emissions. Our study reveals that the biofuels mandatory target encourages ligno-cellulosic ethanol production, reductions in carbon emissions being marginal. The second policy increases energy prices leading to a decrease in energy consumption as well as in direct carbon emissions. However, this policy has a significant impact on deforestation in Brazil resulting in a rise in indirect carbon emissions. The biofuels subsidy needed to reach the mandatory target amounts to US $ 1.1 per gallon. The US carbon tax reaches US $ 120 per ton equivalent carbon. A differential tax is imposed on gasoline, ethanol and ligno-cellulosic ethanol based on the carbon content. It is respectively equal to US $ 0.38, US $ 0.204 and US $ 0.024

  17. What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haftendorn, C.; Kemfert, C.; Holz, F.

    2012-01-01

    Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often the first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible market adjustments between demand regions through market effects are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal market: the “COALMOD-World” model. This equilibrium model computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting policy and a fast-roll out of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness of climate policies. - Highlights: ► Interactions between climate policy and the global coal market until 2030 modeled. ► Analysis with the numerical model: “COALMOD-World”. ► Unilateral European climate policy partly compensated by market adjustment effects. ► A fast roll-out of CCS can lead to positive market adjustment effects. ► An export restricting supply-side policy generates virtuous market adjustments.

  18. US climate policy: evolution and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agrawala, S.; Andresen, S.

    2001-03-01

    Climate change is a problem which US science has significantly helped to bring to the world's attention. It now requires initiatives in US domestic policy for even the first steps towards any realistic global resolution of this problem. This paper addresses three questions: (1) How has US climate policy evolved since climate change became an international political concern in the late 1980s?; (2) what is the relative significance of various factors, both domestic and international, in shaping this evolution?; and (3) what are some likely future scenarios for the climate regime and the role of the US under the new Bush (Jr.) administration? This analysis suggests that the US has generally played a cautious, even blocking role on the international arena, although the period between 1992 and 1997 witnessed a rather uneven march towards progressivism, culminating in the US agreeing to a 7 per cent cut in its greenhouse emissions by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. US policy during the Bush (Sr.) and Clinton administrations was primarily shaped by powerful ideologues, while a second critical determinant was the constitutional separation of powers between the executive and legislature. Scientific assessments and international negotiations meanwhile have given climate change unusual stamina on the domestic agenda, while the preferred set of policy responses has been constrained by a national culture that gives primacy to the market over the state. Looking into the future, the recent one-two punch delivered by President George W. Bush in reversing his pledge to regulate carbon dioxide followed by a rejection of US commitments under the Kyoto Protocol renders any expectation of measures to reduce domestic emissions unrealistic, and is likely to cripple the treaty in its present form. The possibility of an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol also appears very remote at this time. However, while official action is unlikely, it is possible that the growth of US

  19. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global

  20. Climate change: Moving from scientific to institutional and policy questions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, B.

    1990-01-01

    The issue of how societies, through their policies and institutional arrangements, can most effectively respond to climate change, is discussed. Four characteristics contributing to the continued failure to resolve the issue are an enormous uncertainty in every part of the problem; the long time scale of effects, ensuring that a modest amount of discounting reduces the present day cost of any future environmental impact that is less than catastrophic to minor proportions; a belief that trying to avert climate change will be very expensive no matter how it is done; and the global nature of the issues calls for an unprecedented amount of international cooperation. Strategies to deal with climate change may be grouped into three categories: preventative, curative and adaptive. The preventative or adjustment strategy involves the restriction or reduction of activities that contribute to carbon dioxide emissions. Under this approach there would be no new fossil fuel plants constructed, and some existing plants might be closed. The curative strategy focuses on addressing the carbon dioxide concentrations being produced and concentrates on neutralizing them. The adaptive or adaptation strategy assumes that carbon dioxide concentrations will continue to build and that society will eventually develop means to cope with the climatic alteration. To assist policy makers, those conducting research need to devote more effort to examining the interrelationships among climate change and other societal concerns, the aspects of uncertainty and surprise, and the range of strategies. 21 refs

  1. Policy means of control in the climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Using the MARKAL simulation tool, different economic incentives in climate mitigation policy such as tradable emission permits, green certificates and carbon dioxide taxes have been analyzed. The analysis shows that there is an important advantage in applying the emission reductions internationally compared to a national policy, due to the varying marginal costs for the measures in different countries. The analysis also reveals at which price levels the Nordic countries as a whole become net sellers or net buyers of emission permits. The effects of combining emission permits with green certificates are analyzed, e.g. the inverse relation between permit and certificate prices. An appendix to the report gives a description of the Swedish energy system, emissions world-wide and examples of cost-effective mitigation measures for Sweden

  2. Climate policy, asymmetric information and firm survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagem, C.

    2001-02-01

    The purpose of this paper is to compare the effect of different domestic climate policy instruments under asymmetric information when the regulator wants to secure the survival of a specific firm. It is a well-known result from economic theory that emission taxes lead to a cost-effective distribution of abatement across polluters. However, if the regulator wants to ensure the survival of a specific firm, it may need to design policy instruments that reduce the firm's cost of complying with an emission tax regime. The climate policy instruments considered in this paper are tradable emission permits with distribution of free permits, emission taxes in combination with a fixed subsidy, and two types of voluntary agreements. It demonstrates first that if distributing free tradable permits shall have a preventing effect, the allocation of permits has to be made contingent on production. It further shows that a voluntary agreement where a specific abatement target is set by the regulator can prevent a shutdown but leads to lower welfare than the use of emission taxes in combination with a fixed subsidy. And finally it illustrates that a voluntary agreement designed as a menu of abatement contracts increases social welfare compared to an emission tax regime

  3. Economics, ethics, and climate policy: framing the debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howarth, Richard B.; Monahan, Patricia A.

    1996-04-01

    This paper examines the economic and ethical dimensions of climate policy in light of existing knowledge of the impacts of global warming and the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement. We find that the criterion of economic efficiency, operationalized through cost-benefit analysis, is ill-equipped to cope with the pervasive uncertainties and issues of intergenerational fairness that characterize climate change. In contrast, the concept of sustainable development—that today's policies should ensure that future generations enjoy life opportunities undiminished relative to the present—is a normative criterion that explicitly addresses the uncertainties and distributional aspects of global environmental change. If one interprets the sustainability criterion to imply that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for significant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation...

  5. Explaining citizens’ perceptions of international climate-policy relevance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleich, Joachim; Faure, Corinne

    2017-01-01

    This paper empirically analyses the antecedents of citizens’ perceptions of the relevance of international climate policy. Its use of representative surveys in the USA, China and Germany controls for different environmental attitudes and socio-economic factors between countries. The findings of the micro-econometric analysis suggest that the perceived relevance of international climate policy is positively affected by its perceived effectiveness, approval of the key topics discussed at international climate conferences, and environmental attitudes, but is not affected by perceived procedural justice. A higher level of perceived trust in international climate policy was positively related to perceived relevance in the USA and in China, but not in Germany. Citizens who felt that they were well informed and that their position was represented at climate summits were more likely to perceive international climate policy as relevant in China in particular. Generally, the results show only weak evidence of socio-demographic effects. - Highlights: • Perceptions of climate-policy relevance increase with perceptions of effectiveness. • In China and the USA, trust increases perceptions of climate-policy relevance. • Environmental attitudes are related to perceptions of climate-policy relevance. • In China, well-informed citizens perceive climate policy as more relevant. • Socio-demographics only weakly affect perceptions of climate-policy relevance.

  6. Economy of climatic change. From mitigation to adaptation policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rousset, N.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change adaptation policies are the subject of this thesis. It has been showed that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the response strategies construction are characteristic of a pollutionist approach. This approach led to envision the question of climate change as a classic pollution and environment issue. As a result, this approach has generated a double bias to the disadvantage of adaptation compared to mitigation policies: adaptation has been confined in a secondary and marginal role in climate policies structuring, and with an inoperative conceptual and methodological framework for its implementation. The thesis proposes a deconstruction of this climate change conceptualization. Moreover, the major limits that characterize mitigation policies call into question the predominance given to them in climate policies construction. The 'pollutionist' approach deconstruction allows at first to show that adaptation policies definition and operationalization need to go beyond (i) the standard analytic framework of climate policies and, (ii) the climate change conceptualization as a classic pollution and environment management issue. The thesis then argues that adaptation has to be integrated in development promoting policies, which means that adaptation needs to be conceptualized no longer as an ad hoc management of pollution effects issue, but as a development issue. Whether in the proper context of adaptation policies, or more largely of climate policies, the thesis leaves open the questions of the viability, but also of the organization and financing modalities, of a climate regime which fits within development promoting. (author)

  7. Climate Impacts of Cover Crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Bonan, G. B.; Morris, C. K.; Grandy, S.

    2016-12-01

    Cover crops are planted in agricultural rotation with the intention of protecting soil rather than harvest. Cover crops have numerous environmental benefits that include preventing soil erosion, increasing soil fertility, and providing weed and pest control- among others. In addition to localized environmental benefits, cover crops can have important regional or global biogeochemical impacts by increasing soil organic carbon, changing emissions of greenhouse trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane, and reducing hydrologic nitrogen losses. Cover crops may additionally affect climate by changing biogeophysical processes, like albedo and latent heat flux, though these potential changes have not yet been evaluated. Here we use the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) - Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to test how planting cover crops in the United States may change biogeophysical fluxes and climate. We present seasonal changes in albedo, heat fluxes, evaporative partitioning, radiation, and the resulting changes in temperature. Preliminary analyses show that during seasons when cover crops are planted, latent heat flux increases and albedo decreases, changing the evaporative fraction and surface temperatures. Understanding both the biogeophysical changes caused by planting cover crops in this study and the biogeochemical changes found in other studies will give a clearer picture of the overall impacts of cover crops on climate and atmospheric chemistry, informing how this land use strategy will impact climate in the future.

  8. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for

  9. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Klaus [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Robinson, Alexander [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Bradford, David F [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Oppenheimer, Michael [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States)

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO{sub 2} emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO{sub 2} emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO{sub 2} abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination-the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  10. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Klaus [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Robinson, Alexander [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Bradford, David F [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Oppenheimer, Michael [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States)

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO{sub 2} emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO{sub 2} emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO{sub 2} abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination-the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  11. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Klaus; Robinson, Alexander; Bradford, David F.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination—the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  12. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Klaus; Robinson, Alexander; Bradford, David F; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO 2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO 2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO 2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO 2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination-the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change

  13. Key uncertainties in climate change policy: Results from ICAM-2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to: inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives; and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.0. This model includes demographics, economic activities, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate change, sea level rise and other impact modules and the numerous associated feedbacks. The model has over 700 objects of which over 1/3 are uncertain. These have been grouped into seven different classes of uncertain items. The impact of uncertainties in each of these items can be considered individually or in combinations with the others. In this paper we demonstrate the relative contribution of various sources of uncertainty to different outcomes in the model. The analysis shows that climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. Extreme uncertainties in indirect aerosol forcing and behavioral response to climate change (adaptation) were characterized by using bounding analyses; the results suggest that these extreme uncertainties can dominate the choice of policy outcomes.

  14. The role of organizational culture in policy mobilities – the case of South Korean climate change adaptation policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Schäfer

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The conceptualization of policies as mobile and mutable knowledge is the key feature of the recent debate on policy mobilities. Policy mobility studies have focused on the movement and translation of policies as well as on the impact of mobile policies on policy-making processes and governed spaces. Given that policy mobilities have mainly been examined in comparable institutional contexts, the current debate has neglected the role of organizational culture in the translation of policies. Organizational culture is understood as a set of shared assumptions that guide what happens in organizations by defining appropriate practices of policy making. The case study, South Korean adaptation policy, illustrates that organizational culture has a significant impact on the translation of mobile adaptation policy. Besides the claim to consider organizational culture more prominently in the field of policy mobility studies, this paper illustrates the translation process of adaptation policy in the South Korean political system. The practices in South Korean political institutions dealing with climate change adaptation are highly characterized by the avoidance of risks. The propensity to avoid risks leads policy makers to focus on technical solutions to climate change adaptation and to neglect the participation of civil society.

  15. Energy policy after 2020 : Economic arguments to pursue energy policy for non-climate related reasons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kocsis, V.; Koutstaal, P.; Tieben, B.; van Hout, M.; Hof, B.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigates the contribution of sustainable energy policy and energy saving policy to the public goals of energy policy in the Netherlands. Not surprisingly current discussion about sustainable energy policy focus on the contribution of energy policy to the goals of climate policy,

  16. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Morton, John F.

    2007-01-01

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as “subsistence” or “smallholder” farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised d...

  17. The determination of optimal climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaheim, Asbjoern

    2010-01-01

    Analyses of the costs and benefits of climate policy, such as the Stern Review, evaluate alternative strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by requiring that the cost of emission cuts in each and every year has to be covered by the associated value of avoided damage, discounted by a an exogenously chosen rate. An alternative is to optimize abatement programmes towards a stationary state, where the concentrations of greenhouse gases are stabilized and shadow prices, including the rate of discount, are determined endogenously. This paper examines the properties of optimized stabilization. It turns out that the implications for the evaluation of climate policy are substantial if compared with evaluations of the present value of costs and benefits based on exogenously chosen shadow prices. Comparisons of discounted costs and benefits tend to exaggerate the importance of the choice of discount rate, while ignoring the importance of future abatement costs, which turns out to be essential for the optimal abatement path. Numerical examples suggest that early action may be more beneficial than indicated by comparisons of costs and benefits discounted by a rate chosen on the basis of current observations. (author)

  18. Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem. Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arvai, J. [Environmental Science and Policy Program, and Dept. of CARRS, Michigan State University, 305 Natural Resources Building, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Bridge, G. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma (United States); Dolsak, N. [University of Washington, Bothell (United States); Franzese, R. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Koontz, T.; Luginbuhl, A.; Sohngen, B.; Thompson, A. [Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (United States); Robbins, P. [University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona (United States); Richards, K. [Indiana University, Terre Haute, Indiana (United States); Smith Korfmacher, K. [University of Rochester, Rochester (United States); Tansey, J. [Oxford University, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2006-09-15

    To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor.

  19. Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem. Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvai, J.; Bridge, G.; Dolsak, N.; Franzese, R.; Koontz, T.; Luginbuhl, A.; Sohngen, B.; Thompson, A.; Robbins, P.; Richards, K.; Smith Korfmacher, K.; Tansey, J.

    2006-01-01

    To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor

  20. National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, K.H.

    2006-01-01

    This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main...... question asked is to what extent external interventions have formed part of a country-driven approach in Uganda. The conflicting national and global priorities concerning the need for adaptation to the impacts of climate change versus the need for global mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are explored...... first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited...

  1. The role of social norms on preferences towards climate change policies: A meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alló, Maria; Loureiro, Maria L.

    2014-01-01

    The present study provides a review of existing assessments of preferences for climate change mitigation and adaptation policies through a worldwide meta-analysis. In this study, we analyze the impact of social values and norms on preferences towards climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. In a sample of 58 international studies, we found that mitigation actions were preferred over adaptation actions, and that preferences towards climate change policies are affected by attitudes towards time and social norms. In particular, societies with a long-term orientation display greater support towards climate change policies. These results therefore reveal the role of social factors as being crucial in order to understand the acceptability of climate change policies at a worldwide level. - highlights: • Effective policy design is required in order to curb climate change. • Using a meta-analysis, we find that mitigation actions are preferred over adaptation actions. • Economic conditions play a crucial role for supporting efforts to combat climate change. • Cultural and social dimensions are relevant for the acceptability of climate policies. • Understanding social norms and cultural variables may help with the climate change debate

  2. Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

    2016-01-19

    Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

  3. Policy integration, coherence and governance in Dutch climate policy : a multi-level analysis of mitigation and adoption policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bommel, van S.; Kuindersma, W.

    2008-01-01

    This report assesses the integration of climate policy in Dutch public policy at the national, regional, local and area level. The national analysis focuses on the horizontal integration of climate policy in national government programmes, adaptation and mitigation strategies and specific policy

  4. Climate policy through changing consumption choices: Options and obstacles for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Hertwich, E.G.

    2014-01-01

    While national climate policy can address countries’ production or consumption, climate mitigation via changes in consumption has previously received relatively little attention in climate policy literature. In the absence of an effective international climate policy, the focus on consumption is

  5. Japan after the Quake: Prospects for climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luta, Alexandru

    2011-01-01

    The triple calamity of 11 March 2011 has dealt a serious blow domestically to the credibility of the Japanese nuclear industry, putting the country's energy policy in flux.The severe impact on the country's infrastructure, the unwieldiness of its bureaucracy and the chaotic political situation preclude Japan's energy policy from explicitly re-orientating itself before the middle of 2012, but political consensus seems to be emerging that the country's mid-term pledge on emission reductions will need to be curtailed.The bill on renewable energy passed under Prime Minister Kan marked a step in the right direction, but was shallow and politically opportunistic. Its future impact on policy is uncertain.With other policy instruments on climate proposed by the Democratic Party of Japan toothless or abandoned, Tokyo's ability to engage in significant mitigation activities domestically is in question.Opposition to a second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol remains firm; Japan will continue to pursue bilateral mechanisms outside the UNFCCC framework.Given its frail domestic policy and a stated readiness to act internationally outside multilateral frameworks, Japan's promise to carry out significant mitigation activities even in the absence of a clear and comprehensive post-2012 legal instrument should be viewed with a critical eye.(Author)

  6. Japan after the Quake: Prospects for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luta, Alexandru

    2011-07-01

    The triple calamity of 11 March 2011 has dealt a serious blow domestically to the credibility of the Japanese nuclear industry, putting the country's energy policy in flux.The severe impact on the country's infrastructure, the unwieldiness of its bureaucracy and the chaotic political situation preclude Japan's energy policy from explicitly re-orientating itself before the middle of 2012, but political consensus seems to be emerging that the country's mid-term pledge on emission reductions will need to be curtailed.The bill on renewable energy passed under Prime Minister Kan marked a step in the right direction, but was shallow and politically opportunistic. Its future impact on policy is uncertain.With other policy instruments on climate proposed by the Democratic Party of Japan toothless or abandoned, Tokyo's ability to engage in significant mitigation activities domestically is in question.Opposition to a second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol remains firm; Japan will continue to pursue bilateral mechanisms outside the UNFCCC framework.Given its frail domestic policy and a stated readiness to act internationally outside multilateral frameworks, Japan's promise to carry out significant mitigation activities even in the absence of a clear and comprehensive post-2012 legal instrument should be viewed with a critical eye.(Author)

  7. Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1991-01-01

    A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

  8. SUSTAINING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION—POLICY, TECHNOLOGY, AND SOCIETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Rechkemmer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In a world that is becoming more and more exposed and vulnerable to the effects of global climate change, combining integrated risk assessment tools with effective strategies for both mitigation and adaptation is a key prerogative for policy-making. With the focus of both researchers and decision-makers gradually shifting from observing and assessing the bio-physical aspects of climate change to a more human and society centered understanding of the nature of the problem, the social, behavioral, economic and technological aspects have entered center stage of the public discourse. Responses to the climate change challenge have to establish an optimal interplay between mitigation, adaptation and socio-economic instruments. Yet, given the band-width and scale of the climate problematique and its projected impacts, very ambitious mitigation measures have to be undertaken without delays, a fact that is particularly true for emerging economies with their very rapid and unprecedented growth rates, both in GDP and GHG emissions terms. The challenge for the next years is to harmonize poverty eradication and attaining the Millenium Development Goals through stable economic growth with mitigating the effects of climate change. Therefore, “inclusive green growth” has become the motto of the day. But how can this goal be achieved? Obviously, quite fundamental changes have to be introduced that affect both the production and the consumption sectors and allow for real innovation in technologies and energy, in urban mobility, infrastructure and transportation grids. This paper illustrates the deep social and societal nature of climate change response strategies, especially in the area of mitigation, and shows that transitions to green and low-carbon economies will have to embed policies, incentive schemes and economic instruments in a larger societal context of social learning and behavioral change.

  9. The efficiency cost of protective measures in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Böhringer, Christoph; Garcia-Muros, Xaquin; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Arto, Iñaki

    2017-01-01

    Despite recent achievements towards a global climate agreement, climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remains quite heterogeneous across countries. Energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries in industrialized countries are concerned on stringent domestic emission pricing that puts them at a competitive disadvantage against producers of similar goods in other countries with more lenient emission regulation. This paper focuses on climate policy design in the United States of America (US) and compares the economic implications of four alternative protective measures for US EITE industries: (i) output-based rebates, (ii) exemptions from emission pricing, (iii) energy intensity standards, and (iv) carbon intensity standards. Using a large-scale computable general equilibrium model we quantify how these protective measures affect competitiveness of US EITE industries. We find that protective measures can improve common trade-related competitiveness indicators such as revealed comparative advantage or relative world trade shares but at the same time may lead to a decline in the output value for EITE industries because of negative income effects. The economy-wide cost of emission abatement under protective measures increase as compared to uniform emission pricing stand-alone such that the gains of protective measures for EITE exports may be more than compensated through losses in domestic EITE demand. - Highlights: • We assess impacts for US emission-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries. • EITE impacts are quantified via competitiveness metrics and production output. • Protective measures reduce adverse competitiveness impacts but can depress output. • Output losses are due to negative income effects that reduce domestic EITE demand. • Protective measures run the risk of making US climate policy much more costly.

  10. Ecological public health and climate change policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, George P

    2010-01-01

    The fact that health and disease are products of a complex interaction of factors has long been recognized in public health circles. More recently, the term 'ecological public health' has been used to characterize an era underpinned by the paradigm that, when it comes to health and well-being, 'everything matters'. The challenge for policy makers is one of navigating this complexity to deliver better health and greater equality in health. Recent work in Scotland has been concerned to develop a strategic approach to environment and health. This seeks to embrace complexity within that agenda and recognize a more subtle relationship between health and place but remain practical and relevant to a more traditional hazard-focused environmental health approach. The Good Places, Better Health initiative is underpinned by a new problem-framing approach using a conceptual model developed for that purpose. This requires consideration of a wider social, behavioural etc, context. The approach is also used to configure the core systems of the strategy which gather relevant intelligence, subject it to a process of evaluation and direct its outputs to a broad policy constituency extending beyond health and environment. This paper highlights that an approach, conceived and developed to deliver better health and greater equality in health through action on physical environment, also speaks to a wider public health agenda. Specifically it offers a way to help bridge a gap between paradigm and policy in public health. The author considers that with development, a systems-based approach with close attention to problem-framing/situational modelling may prove useful in orchestrating what is a necessarily complex policy response to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

  11. Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway's built environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robert Lisoe, K.; Aandahl, G.; Eriksen, S.; Alfsen, K.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change, with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes, regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts, and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However, measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors, such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. (author)

  12. Climate-agriculture interactions and needs for policy making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, J. G.

    2010-12-01

    Research exploring climate change interactions with agriculture has evolved from simplistic “delta T” simulation experiments with crop models to work highlighting the importance of climate variability and extreme events, which characterized the negative impacts possible if no adaptation occurred. There soon followed consideration of socioeconomic factors allowing for adaptive strategies that are likely to mitigate the worst case outcomes originally projected. At the same time, improved understanding of biophysical feedbacks has led to a greater recognition of the role that agriculture plays in modifying climate, with a great deal of attention recently paid to strategies to enhance carbon sequestration in agricultural systems. Advances in models of biogeochemical cycling applied to agronomic systems have allowed for new insights into greenhouse gas emissions and sinks associated with current, conventional farming systems. Yet this work is still relatively simplistic in that it seldom addresses interactions between climate dynamics, adoption of mitigation strategies, and feedbacks to the climate system and the surrounding environment. In order for agricultural policy to be developed that provides incentives for appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies over the next 50 years, a systems approach needs to be utilized that addresses feedbacks and interactions at field, farm and regional scales in a broader environmental context. Interactions between carbon and climate constraints on the one hand, and environmental impacts related to water, nutrient runoff, and pest control all imply a transformation of farming practices that is as of yet not well defined. Little attention has been paid to studying the implications of “alternative” farming strategies such as organic systems, intensive rotational grazing of livestock, or increases in the perennial component of farmscapes, all of which may be necessary responses to energy and other environmental constraints

  13. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

    2015-04-14

    Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

  14. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost−benefit assessment of climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.; Narita, Daiju

    2015-01-01

    Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

  15. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaption policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.; de Jong, A.; van Bree, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type

  16. Efficient Climate Policy with Internationally Mobile Firms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maestad, O.

    2001-01-01

    A major concern in the design of an incomplete climate agreement is that firms that use fossil fuels intensively may respond to emission regulations by relocating their plants from cooperating to non-cooperating countries. This paper analyses how the cooperating countries might deal with the issue of firm delocation through emission taxes, trade provisions and a localisation subsidy to mobile firms. It is shown that firms should not be induced to stay in the cooperating countries by lowering emission taxes below the Pigouvian tax rate. Incentives to stay should be given partly through trade provisions and partly through a localisation subsidy. A second best solution without localisation subsidies is also discussed. In that case, the efficient emission tax is lower than the Pigouvian tax rate. Finally, the paper discusses the implications of the first best and the second best policy regimes for the pattern of firm localisation. 19 refs

  17. EU Climate Policy Tracker 2011. Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoehne, N.; Geurts, F.; Teckenburg, E.; Blok, K.; Becker, D. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    Limiting the rise in the average global temperature to 2C has been the EU goal since 1996, and in December 2010 the UN recognised the need to consider a 1.5C limit. Avoiding overshooting these levels will require massive emissions reductions - in the order of 80-95% for industrialised countries, like those in the EU. The next ten years are crucial in establishing whether society will be able to make this transition, or whether temperature increase limits will be irreversibly missed. Last year, the European Union Climate Policy Tracker (EU CPT) investigated each member state's implementation of policy and legislation, and rated their progress towards a 2050 vision of deep decarbonisation using renewable energy. The uniquely developed rating scheme, modelled on appliance efficiency labels (A-G), gave an indication of how member states were doing compared to a 'low-carbon policy package'. The average score was an 'E', indicating that the level of effort needed to treble, to be on a pace to reach the 2050 vision. However, aggregating best practices across sectors and countries doubled the score - meaning that the tools are already at hand for major improvements across Europe. This report builds on last year's EU CPT by giving an update on action in member states, and an indicative trend in the rating, as well as adding a new section on EU policy. The addition of an EU section is appropriate, with the Commission having produced a roadmap on a low-carbon economy by 2050, a transport white paper, and with another roadmap for 2050 focused on energy anticipated by the end of 2011. This report seeks to answer the question of whether these and other related initiatives are sufficient to help Europe reach its low-carbon goals. When interpreting the results of this report, it is important to understand that the goal underlying the vision here is not the same as the one in the European Commission's 'low-carbon economy' roadmap

  18. Chinese Climate Policy - Institutions and Intent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques [Institut Francais des Relations Internationales - Ifri, 27 rue de la Procession, 75740 Paris Cedex 15 (France); Andrews-Speed, Philip [Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee, Scotland (United Kingdom); Yishan, Xia; Dezhao, Chen [China Institute of International Studies (China)

    2011-06-15

    's energy sector. Not surprisingly, institutions and practices continue to reflect millennia of Chinese history, which in some measure focused on nurturing the authority of an emperor. Students of China, who have long recognized its 'command and control' economy, are now aware of the limits of those concepts and the consequences of a bureaucratic hierarchy living in a sometimes conflicted condominium with the Communist Party, even as the economy surges on. The second study seeks to answer the questions: What are the economic and strategic drivers of Chinese energy policy? How does China plan to manage its increasing reliance on foreign sources of oil, gas and now coal? How will these drivers shape the guiding principles of Chinese national companies and their relations with international operators and foreign sources of energy resources? How does China define and shape its international diplomacy and practices in order to succeed in its quest to secure access to upstream oil, gas, coal and uranium - just to mention the fuels? The third study explores the Chinese approach to climate change. The Chinese have long been victims of their own internal deserts and know only too well the challenges that the power of nature imposes on their society. The recent spectacular growth of the Chinese economy has left China with a plethora of weeping environmental wounds. While these are increasingly urgent short-term challenges, Chinese leaders are only too aware that, in the longer term, under any probable climate change scenario, China is a loser

  19. Chinese Climate Policy - Institutions and Intent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques; Andrews-Speed, Philip; Yishan, Xia; Dezhao, Chen

    2011-06-01

    . Not surprisingly, institutions and practices continue to reflect millennia of Chinese history, which in some measure focused on nurturing the authority of an emperor. Students of China, who have long recognized its 'command and control' economy, are now aware of the limits of those concepts and the consequences of a bureaucratic hierarchy living in a sometimes conflicted condominium with the Communist Party, even as the economy surges on. The second study seeks to answer the questions: What are the economic and strategic drivers of Chinese energy policy? How does China plan to manage its increasing reliance on foreign sources of oil, gas and now coal? How will these drivers shape the guiding principles of Chinese national companies and their relations with international operators and foreign sources of energy resources? How does China define and shape its international diplomacy and practices in order to succeed in its quest to secure access to upstream oil, gas, coal and uranium - just to mention the fuels? The third study explores the Chinese approach to climate change. The Chinese have long been victims of their own internal deserts and know only too well the challenges that the power of nature imposes on their society. The recent spectacular growth of the Chinese economy has left China with a plethora of weeping environmental wounds. While these are increasingly urgent short-term challenges, Chinese leaders are only too aware that, in the longer term, under any probable climate change scenario, China is a loser

  20. Climate Trends and Impacts in China

    OpenAIRE

    Chris Sall

    2013-01-01

    This discussion paper summarizes observed and projected trends in extreme weather events, present-day climate variability, and future climate change and their impacts on China's different regions. Findings are presented from China's national assessment report on climate change (2007) and second national assessment report on climate change (2011) as well as other studies by Chinese and inte...

  1. Quantifying the Climate Impacts of Land Use Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; Snyder, P. K.; Twine, T. E.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change mitigation efforts that involve land use decisions call for comprehensive quantification of the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems. This is particularly imperative for analyses of the climate impact of bioenergy production, as land use change is often the single most important factor in determining bioenergy’s sustainability. However, current metrics of the climate services of terrestrial ecosystems used for policy applications—including biofuels life cycle analyses—account only for biogeochemical climate services (greenhouse gas regulation), ignoring biophysical climate regulation services (regulation of water and energy balances). Policies thereby run the risk of failing to advance the best climate solutions. Here, we present a quantitative metric that combines biogeochemical and biophysical climate services of terrestrial ecosystems, the ‘climate regulation value’ (CRV), which characterizes the climate benefit of maintaining an ecosystem over a multiple-year time frame. Using a combination of data synthesis and modeling, we calculate the CRV for a variety of natural and managed ecosystem types within the western hemisphere. Biogeochemical climate services are generally positive in unmanaged ecosystems (clearing the ecosystem has a warming effect), and may be positive or negative (clearing the ecosystem has a cooling effect) for managed ecosystems. Biophysical climate services may be either positive (e.g., tropical forests) or negative (e.g., high latitude forests). When averaged on a global scale, biogeochemical services usually outweigh biophysical services; however, biophysical climate services are not negligible. This implies that effective analysis of the climate impacts of bioenergy production must consider the integrated effects of biogeochemical and biophysical ecosystem climate services.

  2. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogola, J.S.; Abira, M.A.; Awuor, V.O.

    1997-01-01

    According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere. It is a phenomenon that is still inadequately understood by the general public. Planners, policy makers and even within institutions of learning, but one which is bound to affect our environment and development activities. There is therefore need for information dissemination, systematic research, policy formulation, and development of strategies for managing climate change. The book is divided into five parts, Part I presents basic information on climate change; Part II looks at climatic change and natural resources; Part III discusses implications of climate change; Part IV presents ethical issues related to climatic change; and Part V deals with responses to climate change

  3. Economic theory and climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, I.; Ackerman, F.

    1999-01-01

    Our willingness to embrace climate change policies depends on our perception of their benefits and costs. Evaluation of these costs and benefits requires careful economic analysis. Yet the standard tools for such assessment - computable general equilibrium (CGE) models - are inadequate on several grounds. Their underlying theory suffers from well-known logical difficulties; in general, their equilibria may be neither unique, stable, nor efficient. Moreover, real-world phenomena such as increasing returns to scale, learning, and technological innovation are neglected in CGE models. These phenomena make the resulting equilibria in the models inefficient; in the real world they can lock society into sub-optimal technology choices. They introduce uncertainty and path-dependence, annihilating the concept of a single efficient allocation produced by the unfettered market. Yet conventional economics assesses the cost of policies solely on the basis of their departure from a purportedly efficient equilibrium - ignoring deeper structural changes that are often decisive in practice. New socioeconomic theories and models are emerging that allow for bounded rationality, the limiting and enabling character of institutions, technological change, and the complexities and uncertainties in economic evolution. Meanwhile, existing models should be modified to better reflect real-world phenomena and to abandon unfounded assumptions about the inherent ''inefficiencies'' of government intervention in the market. (author)

  4. Interaction of the EU emissions Trading Directive with climate policy instrument in the Netherlands. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sijm, J.P.M.

    2003-11-01

    This policy brief presents an overview of the implications of the proposed EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for some selected energy and climate policy instruments in the Netherlands. It summarises the results of research that has been conducted by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) as part of the EU-funded project Interaction in EU Climate Policy

  5. Is HIA the most effective tool to assess the impact on health of climate change mitigation policies at the local level? A case study in Geneva, Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Thierno; Cantoreggi, Nicola; Simos, Jean; Christie, Derek P T H

    2017-06-01

    This study aims to understand how the health dimension is integrated into four impact assessment tools used in Geneva, Switzerland: environmental impact assessment (EIA), strategic environmental assessment (SEA), sustainability assessment (SA) and health impact assessment (HIA). We have chosen as a case study greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policies chosen by the city of Geneva. The methodological approach consists in analysing EIA, SEA, SA and HIA conducted on three projects in three topic areas: urban planning, heating and transportation. These projects are: a complex urbanisation plan in an urban neighbourhood in Geneva (the Gare des Eaux-Vives project), a sustainable transportation plan for a central district in Geneva (the St-Gervais transportation project) and a strategy to encourage the City's employees to use sustainable transport for local business travel. The results show some shortcomings in the consideration of health in SEA, EIA and SA. This work highlights a narrow vision of health in SEA and EIA, limiting itself to a review of the effects of projects on the determinants of the physical environment as required by the legislation relating to these tools. EIA does not require the integration of the health dimension. As for SA, our research found that health is treated much more superficially than in HIA and primarily through the analysis of 'health and safety' criteria. It appears from this work that HIA is the tool which provides the most elaborate assessment, compared to SA, SEA or EIA, of the consequences for health of the GHG reduction policies chosen by the local decision-makers of a city. However, our study suggests that the HIA community should identify the situations in which HIA should be carried out and in which cases it is better to include health issues within an integrated analysis.

  6. Technical innovation and design choices for emissions trading and other climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, Carolyn

    2005-01-01

    Climate change is a serious public policy issue because it may impose costs on society, including adverse human health impacts, productivity losses, and degradation of valued natural resources. On the other hand, policies to reduce greenhouse gases can have serious economic consequences, such as

  7. Energy policy design and China’s local climate governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ting, Guan; Delman, Jørgen

    2017-01-01

    This study probes into climate policy design at city level in China, with Hangzhou’s energy efficiency and renewable energy policies between 2005 and 2014 as a case. The study applies a political action arena approach to accentuate the importance of different normative preferences behind climate...

  8. Carbon Leakage Revisited : Unilateral Climate Policy with Directed Technical Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Di Maria, C.; van der Werf, E.H.

    2005-01-01

    The increase in carbondioxide emissions by some countries in reaction to an emission reduction by countries with climate policy (carbon leakage) is seen as a serious threat to unilateral climate policy.Using a two-country model where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions,

  9. Competitiveness and carbon leakages in industry under asymmetric climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demailly, D.

    2008-02-01

    This research aims at studying how to predict competitiveness loss for an industry submitted to an asymmetric carbon constraint, and carbon leakages, whether high losses and important leakages might be feared, and which policies can be used to mitigate these losses and escapes. The author analyses and comments the content of four articles dealing with: the impact on competitiveness, revenue distribution and economic efficiency of a change in the allocation rules for EU greenhouse gas allowances; the relationship between allocation of CO 2 allowances and competitiveness in the case of the European iron and steel industry; CO 2 abatement, competitiveness and leakage in the European cement industry under EU ETS; and leakage from climate policies and border tax adjustment (lessons from a geographic model of the cement industry). Then, the author combines several approaches to study the cement and steel industries

  10. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  11. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  12. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  13. Climate Policy in Terms of Open Energy Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granic, G.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes the objectives and approach to the climate policy impact analysis on the development of energy sector. The analysis included the goals for CO2 emission reduction until 2050, by sectors and in total, with reference to last 5-10 years. The analysis of energy market development in terms of CO2 emission reduction is given, and also the analysis of the final consumption for Croatia in period until 2050. The analysis of measures, of the manner in which the measures are carried out and of the potential of measures for CO2 emission reduction is presented. Estimations of economic and financial indicators for measurement implementation are given. Technological, energy, economic, organizational and institutional limitations are specifically analysed as part of objectives realisation of CO2 emission reduction, as is the risk of measurement implementation. The important parts of CO2 emission reduction policy are: technological development, expectations and possible risks of not achieving the set objectives. The important assumption of CO2 emission reduction objective realisation is institutional organisation of creation of energy policy and measurement implementation, in which the important measure is the forming of Ministry of energy, environment protection and climate change. At the end, recommendations are given, based on the performed analysis. (author).

  14. Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.

    1991-01-01

    Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

  15. Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate policy and renewable energy policy instruments. It shows that, even where CO2 emissions are duly priced, specific incentives for supporting the early deployment of renewable energy technologies are justified by the steep learning curves of nascent technologies. This early investment reduces costs in the longer term and makes renewable energy affordable when it needs to be deployed on a very large scale to fully contribute to climate change mitigation and energy security. The paper also reveals other noteworthy interaction effects of climate policy and renewable policy instruments on the wholesale electricity prices in deregulated markets, which open new areas for future research.

  16. Motivations for Local Climate Adaptation in Dutch Municipalities: Climate Change Impacts and the Role of Local-Level Government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Maya Marieke

    2009-01-01

    The local government level is considered to be crucial in preparing society for climate change impact. Yet little is known about why local authorities do or do not take action to adapt their community for climate change impacts. In order to implement effective adaptation policy, the motivations for

  17. Human capital, innovation, and climate policy: An integrated assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Tavoni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation in the presence of climate and educational policies. Using recent empirical estimates, human capital and general purpose R&D are introduced in an integrated assessment model that has been extensively applied to study the climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean energy R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Human capital incre...

  18. Behavioural responses to climate change: Asymmetry of intentions and impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Whitmarsh, Lorraine E.

    2009-01-01

    In seeking to determine whether climate change mitigation strategies are effective, researchers and policy-makers typically use energy consumption as an indicator. UK government data show that energy use amongst the public is rising, despite measures to encourage energy conservation. Yet, research to date has not explicitly asked which actions the public are taking with the express intention of mitigating climate change. Using Stern's classification of impact-oriented and intent-oriented beha...

  19. Cities in Climate Change Mitigation Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paugam, Anne; Giraud, Gael; Thauvin, Eric

    2015-03-01

    The phenomenon of accelerated urbanization of emerging and developing economies is a potential source of harmful environmental impacts on people's well-being. Major negative effects can especially be expected on the climate, possibly compromising, in the long run, large-scale local economic development. This is because the urban environment is characterized by a concentration of activities with high energy consumption (between 56 and 78% of final energy used is ascribable to transportation and buildings, as well as to industries and services). These activities, in addition to generating significant local pollution, are a large source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Due to divergent methods of calculation as well as to the perimeter of urban activities, there is uncertainty about the exact extent to which these activities contribute to GHG. Nonetheless, a strong increase in the overall impact of cities on climate change can be expected. The international community wants to reach a coordinated commitment to keep global warming between now and the end of the 21. century under the threshold of an average 2 deg. C higher than the temperature of the pre-industrial age and thereby prevent irreversible damage from climate disturbance. This comes down to examining the potential of cities to contribute to implementing effective solutions. However, analysis of mid- to long-term impacts of urban development strategies on GHG emissions is still difficult, due to great complexity of the underlying impact mechanisms. Because of the large number of sectors and services concerned (transportation infrastructures and networks, energy-management services, and urban spatial planning), urban development strategies can simultaneously have a direct and indirect effect on several sources of GHG emissions. They are also highly dependent on each country's competence level and institutional organization. Despite this complexity, the urgency of the climate issues linked to growing

  20. Climate policies for road transport revisited (II): Closing the policy gap with cap-and-trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flachsland, Christian; Brunner, Steffen; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Creutzig, Felix

    2011-01-01

    Current policies in the road transport sector fail to deliver consistent and efficient incentives for greenhouse gas abatement (see companion article by ). Market-based instruments such as cap-and-trade systems close this policy gap and complement traditional policies that are required where specific market failures arise. Even in presence of strong existing non-market policies, cap-and-trade delivers additional abatement and efficiency by incentivizing demand side abatement options. This paper analyzes generic design options and economic impacts of including the European road transport sector into the EU ETS. Suitable points of regulation are up- and midstream in the fuel chain to ensure effectiveness (cover all emissions and avoid double-counting), efficiency (incentivize all abatement options) and low transaction costs. Based on year 2020 marginal abatement cost curves from different models and current EU climate policy objectives we show that in contrast to conventional wisdom, road transport inclusion would not change the EU ETS allowance price. Hence, industrial carbon leakage induced by adding road transport to the EU ETS may be less important than previously estimated. - Research highlights: → We analyze the rationale, design and economic impacts of including road transportation into GHG cap-and-trade systems. → Suitable points of regulation are up- and mid-stream. → Including European road transport into the EU ETS by 2020 would not change the EU allowance price.

  1. An exploration of potential directions for climate change policy in Northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newton, J.

    2001-01-01

    The challenges facing decision and policy makers for climate change actions in the Canadian North were described. While Northern Canada contributes only a small fraction of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the impacts are already being felt there, and scientists forecast changes in average annual temperatures to be among the highest in the world. Canada is well positioned to take a lead role in addressing climate change in northern regions. This paper examined the policy choices in the North and outlined the policy directions worthy of further consideration and development. The objective of the paper is to provide a catalyst for on-going discussion and deliberation on climate change actions and policy options in Northern Canada. The paper also addressed the global context that influences national framework and local initiatives. Some tentative policy choices were proposed and described within the general context of the global challenge that climate change presents for the design of coherent regional public policy. It was suggested that integration and mitigation measures should not be approached in isolation from other environmental and socio-economic changes, such as pollution abatement and economic and social development. It was emphasized that building on the sound foundation of current policy frameworks in these areas is essential to the integration of climate change initiatives within established and complementary processes. It was concluded that the evolution of policy options for climate change in the North will be driven by a political willingness to take deliberate actions. 13 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

  2. Policy challenges for wildlife management in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark L. Shaffer

    2014-01-01

    Try as it might, wildlife management cannot make wild living things adapt to climate change. Management can, however, make adaptation more or less likely. Given that policy is a rule set for action, policy will play a critical role in society’s efforts to help wildlife cope with the challenge of climate change. To be effective, policy must provide clear goals and be...

  3. Making the Climate Count: Climate Policy Integration and Coherence in Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Kivimaa, Paula; Mickwitz, Per

    2009-01-01

    Tackling climate change in Finland and other industrialised countries requires major changes in production processes and consumption patterns. These changes will not take place unless climate change becomes a crucial factor in general and sector-specific policy-making. In this report climate policy integration in Finland is studied at different levels of policy-making: at the national level, regionally in Kymenlakso and the Metropolitan Area, as well as in the city of Helsinki and the town of...

  4. ESCAPE. Energy Security and ClimAte Policy Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessels, J.R.; Bakker, S.J.A.

    2005-05-01

    Climate change and energy supply security policy are currently not integrated in most countries, despite possible synergies. The ESCAPE approach suggests that linking climate change policy with security of energy supply could improve climate change policy at both a national and international level. The report explores the interaction between policies of energy security and climate change and the options of inclusion of energy security issues into national and international post-2012 climate negotiations. It emphasises the importance of the US in this regard and takes a close look at US energy policy documents. It appears that current US energy policy is not directed towards reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuel, even though the government has a strong preference for this. This study shows that measures to reduce import dependency are mostly synergetic with climate policy and gives some options that can be implemented. On an international level, linkages of energy security into post-2012 climate policy may be possible in sectoral bottom-up approaches or technology frameworks. As well, inclusion of a security of supply criterion in international emission trading instruments may provide potential benefits

  5. Uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, R.G.; Pizer, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Consequences in the distant future - such as those from climate change--have little value today when discounted using conventional rates. This result contradicts our 'gut feeling' about such problems and often leads to ad hoc application of lower rates for valuations over longer horizons - a step facilitated by confusion and disagreement over the correct rate even over short horizons. We review the theory and intuition behind the choice of discount rates now and, importantly, the impact of likely variation in rates in the future. Correlated changes in future rates imply that the distant future should be discounted at much lower rates than suggested by the current rate, thereby raising the value of future consequences - regardless of opinions concerning the current rate. Using historic data to quantity the likely changes and correlation in changes in future rates, we find that future valuations rise by a factor of many thousands at horizons of 300 years or more, almost doubling the expected present value of climate mitigation benefits relative to constant 4% discounting. Ironically, uncertainty about future rates reduces the ratio of valuations based on alternate choices of the current rate

  6. Climate policies: distributive effects and recycling revenue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    Implementing the Environment Grenelle will involve the introduction of a 'climate-energy' contribution, compensated by a drop in overall tax burden. Last February, the French President ordered a study into the extent to which this contribution could compensate for the abolition of professional taxes. The Senate's Finance Commission has since constituted a work group on environmental taxation, chaired by Fabienne Keller, to analyse, by the yardstick of foreign experiences, the conditions for creating a 'carbon tax' in France. Such a tax could have a negative impact on the most disadvantaged households. However, it is possible - following the example of other countries - to use part of this new tax to neutralise regressive effects and allocate another part to an objective of growth, competitiveness and employment. (author)

  7. Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.

    2012-12-01

    The reality of a changing climate means that transportation and planning agencies need to understand the potential effects of changes in storm activity, sea levels, temperature, and precipitation patterns; and develop strategies to ensure the continuing robustness and resilience of transportation infrastructure and services. This is a relatively new challenge for California's regional planning agencies - adding yet one more consideration to an already complex and multifaceted planning process. In that light, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) is developing a strategy framework using a module-based process that planning agencies can undertake to incorporating the risks of climate change impacts into their decision-making and long-range transportation plans. The module-based approach was developed using a best practices survey of existing work nationally, along with a set of structured interviews with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and regional transportation planning agencies (RTPAs) within California. Findings led to the development of a process, as well as a package of foundational geospatial layers (i.e. the Statewide Transportation Asset Geodatabase - STAG), primarily comprising state and Federal transportation assets. These assets are intersected with a set of geospatial layers for the climate stressors of relevance in the state which are placed in the same reference layers as the STAG; thus providing a full set of GIS layers that can be a starting point for MPOs/RTPAs that want to follow the step-by-step module-based approach in its entirety. The fast-paced changes in science and climate change knowledge requires a flexible platform to display continuously evolving information. To this end, the development of the modules are accompanied by a set of geospatial analysis disseminated using an online web portal. In this way, the information can be relayed to MPO/RTPAs in a easy-to-use fashion that can help them follow the modules

  8. Climate change : expert opinion on the economics of policy options to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...

  9. Climate policy. The dirt, the country and the world. Part 1. Solo climate policy is damaging symbol politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, P.

    2008-01-01

    This article assumes that the objective of climate policy is to limit climate change. The alternative goal of security of supply was not considered. Some measures can be defended in view of both objectives. This is for example the case with energy saving. It is evident that the climate problem becomes increasingly urgent. If the Netherlands or Europe choose individual climate policy, some 'leakage effects' are unavoidable. Such symbol politics harm the economy, whereas the climate does not benefit. On a national and European scale all means must be put to use to bring global collaboration closer at the shortest possible term. [mk] [nl

  10. Companies and Climate Risk: Opportunities to Engage the Business Community in Promoting Climate-conscious Policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2013-12-01

    Regardless of their policy orientation, the business community has an interest in how climate change impacts will affect their operations and ultimately change their bottom line. The reality that climate change presents material and financial risks to many companies in diverse sectors of the economy presents an opportunity to engage companies on climate-related issues. Company investors are exposed to such financial risks and can pressure public companies to change behavior through shareholder resolutions, voting, and election of new board members. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates all publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business in their annual Form 10-K filings. In 2010, the guidance for the Form 10-K specifically suggested that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change--both from its physical effects and from impacts of climate regulations. Form 10-Ks for 28 US companies were analyzed for the years 2009 and 2010. Results indicate that some companies comprehensively considered climate-related risks. However, in spite of the SEC guidance, some fail to mention climate change at all. Additionally, many companies discuss only the impacts that regulation would have on their business--not the physical effects of climate change itself. The lack of consideration of climate-related risks in companies' risk assessments demonstrates a need for a more uniform understanding of SEC requirements and additionally, this state of affairs presents an opportunity to push companies to more deeply consider climate change impacts. Several avenues are available for engaging with companies themselves, their shareholders, the SEC, and the public. We will explore what strategies have been effective for engaging such actors and what further opportunities exist for working with the business community to promote more climate-conscious policies and practices.

  11. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. Learning to Adapt. Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berkhout, F.; Hertin, J.; Gann, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour

  13. National Energy Policy and Climate Change Prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruggink, J.J.C.; Mallant, R.K.A.M.; Van der Wart, R.; Muradin-Szweykowska, M.

    1992-06-01

    Climate change prevention has become one of the major concerns of environmental policy in the Netherlands. The Dutch government has set definite targets for CO 2 emissions in the coming decade. These targets and the measures necessary to reach them are described in the paper. In addition, the technical feasibility of realizing the Toronto objective of a 20% reduction in CO 2 emissions by the year 2005 in the Netherlands is discussed. It appears that energy conservation options are most crucial for the short-term, but that eventually new supply technologies are needed to obtain drastic reductions in the long term. The increased need for research and development efforts has led to two innovative research programmes on sustainable energy development in the Netherlands. The ENGINE (ENergy Generation In the Natural Environment) programme is implemented by the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) and addresses the specific problems associated with the three major components of supply: cleanliness in the case of fossil fuels, safety in the case of nuclear energy, and costs in the case of renewable sources. The complementary SYRENE (SYstem integration of Renewable ENergy and End use) is implemented by the Netherlands Agency for Energy and Environment (NOVEM) and addresses the system aspects of sustainable energy development. The objectives and approaches of these two programmes are briefly presented. 1 fig., 1 tab., 4 refs

  14. Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.

    2018-01-01

    Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936

  15. Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

    2018-04-01

    Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.

  16. Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

    2014-08-01

    Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Climate Change and Climate Policy: An Inconvenient Issue, in the Low Countries Too

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leroy, P.

    2008-01-01

    Climate policy in Belgium and the Netherlands exhibits all the dilemmas of policy-making at the present juncture: the policy has to be global, but the political system remains largely national, and therefore operates on a relatively ineffective scale. The policy has to be long-term, but politicians

  18. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  19. Climate change and foreign policy : an exploration of options for greater integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drexhage, J.; Murphy, D.; Brown, O.; Cosbey, A.; Dickey, P.; Parry, J.-E.; Van Ham, J.; Tarasofsky, R.; Darkin, B.

    2007-01-01

    Climate change is a global challenge and one of biggest challenges of this century. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires new thinking in foreign policy. This paper discussed the results of a research study that examined the role of foreign policy in fostering a more effective international response to the challenge of climate change. The scope involved an examination of instruments relevant to Danish foreign policy. The paper first identified the climate change challenge and discussed international diplomacy and relations. Energy security and investment was discussed in terms of the impact of energy security on climate change efforts and opportunities for integration. Other areas where critical issues and opportunities for integration were offered include international peace and security; trade and investment; and development cooperation. The paper made several recommendations in these areas in addition to diplomatic networking. The study concluded that foreign policy can further the climate change agenda in a number of areas in diplomacy and foreign relations within the European Union, transatlantic relations, Arctic issues and United Nations affairs. This includes better integration of climate change into the European Union's common foreign and security policy, the Lisbon Agenda, and incorporating climate change in the work of a wide range of bodies under the United Nations. refs., figs

  20. Energy policy and climate change in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaygusuz, Kamil

    2003-01-01

    The problem of massive emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the burning of fossil fuels and their climatic impact have become major scientific and political issues. Future stabilization of the atmospheric CO 2 content requires a drastic decrease of CO 2 emissions worldwide. In this study, energy utilization and its major environmental impacts are discussed from the standpoint of sustainable development, including anticipated patterns of future energy use and subsequent environmental issues in Turkey. Several aspects relating to energy utilization, renewable energy, energy efficiency, environment and sustainable development are examined from both current and future perspectives. Turkey is an energy importing country; with more than half of the energy requirement being supplied by imports. Domestic oil and lignite reserves are limited, and the lignites are characterised by high ash, sulfur and moisture contents. Because of increasing energy consumption, air pollution is becoming a great environmental concern for the future in the country. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development and environmental pollution prevention in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of the renewable energy sources

  1. Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnave, Hélène; Pycroft, Jonathan; Saveyn, Bert; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos

    2012-01-01

    The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyse the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy implies a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does imply an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP (making a total loss of 2.5% of GDP), but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.

  2. Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leggett, Jane A

    2007-01-01

    .... During the 20th Century, some areas became wetter while others experienced more drought. Most climate scientists conclude that humans have induced a large part of the climate change since the 1970s...

  3. Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haug Constanze

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations.

  4. Policy Coherence and Interplay between Climate Change Adaptation Policies and the Forestry Sector in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranabhat, Sunita; Ghate, Rucha; Bhatta, Laxmi Dutt; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Tankha, Sunil

    2018-06-01

    Least Developed Countries are likely to be hit the hardest by climate change and need focused efforts towards adaptation. Nepal recognizes that it needs to integrate climate change adaptation into various policies, but limited understanding of how to make these policies coherent is among the factors that hinder effective adaptation action. This can lead to wasted resources and lost opportunities. This paper applies concepts from policy coherence for development frameworks and policy content analysis to examine coherence in Nepal's climate and forest policies—and discusses the factors hindering effective implementation. The policies are analyzed at the horizontal/external level at three layers—motivation, measures, and planned implementation process. The paper finds that policies are more consistent on motivation level and adaptation measures, but are less coherent on implementation. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is more explicit in identifying institutions, organizations, roles and responsibilities, resource allocation (financial), and a monitoring and evaluation plan for climate change adaptation while other policies such as Climate Change Policy 2011, National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan 2014-2020, Forest Policy 2015, and Forest Sector Strategy 2016 have critical gaps in this area. This paper conclude that formulation of a policy, articulating targets, and mobilizing financial resources are in themselves not sufficient to effectively address climate change adaptation. Policy-based legislation is required, together with development of a supportive collaborative multi-stakeholder approach at different levels of governance, backed up by effective, collaborative monitoring and enforcement.

  5. Climate Signals: An On-Line Digital Platform for Mapping Climate Change Impacts in Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutting, H.

    2016-12-01

    Climate Signals is an on-line digital platform for cataloging and mapping the impacts of climate change. The CS platform specifies and details the chains of connections between greenhouse gas emissions and individual climate events. Currently in open-beta release, the platform is designed to to engage and serve the general public, news media, and policy-makers, particularly in real-time during extreme climate events. Climate Signals consists of a curated relational database of events and their links to climate change, a mapping engine, and a gallery of climate change monitors offering real-time data. For each event in the database, an infographic engine provides a custom attribution "tree" that illustrates the connections to climate change. In addition, links to key contextual resources are aggregated and curated for each event. All event records are fully annotated with detailed source citations and corresponding hyper links. The system of attribution used to link events to climate change in real-time is detailed here. This open-beta release is offered for public user testing and engagement. Launched in May 2016, the operation of this platform offers lessons for public engagement in climate change impacts.

  6. Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ( Theobroma Cacao ) Yields in Meme Division, South West Region of Cameroon. ... Farm selection was based on age, consistency of sizes and management practices in an attempt to keep the factors affecting cocoa yield constant. Data on cocoa yield, flowering, ...

  7. Climatic change impacts in Lombardia region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorese, G.; Gatto, M.; De Leo, G.

    2008-01-01

    Climatic change will change significantly our Country through impacts of natural and physical systems, on human health and the productive sectors. This article describes the expected impacts in Lombardia region [it

  8. Effectiveness of climate policy in the built environment. Application of policy theory in the evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joosen, S.; Harmelink, M.; Blok, K.

    2004-01-01

    Due to climate policy in the sectors households and services in the Netherlands the annual emission of CO2 has been reduced by 2-6 million tons in 7 years. Without the climate policy the CO2 emission in these sectors would have been 7% higher [nl

  9. Environmental federalism and US climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, L.M. [Bracewell and Patterson, LLP (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Environmental disputes involving states over the proper state and federal roles have grown in number and magnitude over the last several years, with many disputes engaging dozens of states. States with competing views are fully engaged in the ongoing debate over climate change, a textbook case for testing the contours of environmental federalism. The issue has all the necessary components: transboundary environmental impacts; competing state economic and environmental interests; state self-interest; disagreement on first principles including what is the proper role of the states; and a somewhat ill-defined federal role. With those qualities, one would expect the federal government to step in and regulate. Instead, the federal government has declined to regulate, inviting a national discourse on whether and how to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As of Spring 2004, twenty-eight states have launched or are planning initiatives, some of which will directly regulate sources of GHG emissions. As these programs take root, pressure will build for a greater federal role. This paper will advance the position that even with this building momentum, the federal government is not likely to emulate state programs that mandate CO{sub 2} emission reductions. In the face of high national cost, uncertain environmental benefits, and a history of federal non-regulatory action, federal regulation at this time appears to be a remote possibility. State efforts to address global climate change add value to the debate, but they do not create the cocoon of consensus the federal government seeks before launching mandatory programs of this magnitude. The more likely scenario is that the federal government will continue on its present course, funding research and development, investing in energy efficient technologies, and supporting voluntary measures. Under this scenario, states and the private sector would continue to function as the 'laboratories' to develop new ideas to

  10. Environmental federalism and US climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, L.M.

    2004-01-01

    Environmental disputes involving states over the proper state and federal roles have grown in number and magnitude over the last several years, with many disputes engaging dozens of states. States with competing views are fully engaged in the ongoing debate over climate change, a textbook case for testing the contours of environmental federalism. The issue has all the necessary components: transboundary environmental impacts; competing state economic and environmental interests; state self-interest; disagreement on first principles including what is the proper role of the states; and a somewhat ill-defined federal role. With those qualities, one would expect the federal government to step in and regulate. Instead, the federal government has declined to regulate, inviting a national discourse on whether and how to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As of Spring 2004, twenty-eight states have launched or are planning initiatives, some of which will directly regulate sources of GHG emissions. As these programs take root, pressure will build for a greater federal role. This paper will advance the position that even with this building momentum, the federal government is not likely to emulate state programs that mandate CO 2 emission reductions. In the face of high national cost, uncertain environmental benefits, and a history of federal non-regulatory action, federal regulation at this time appears to be a remote possibility. State efforts to address global climate change add value to the debate, but they do not create the cocoon of consensus the federal government seeks before launching mandatory programs of this magnitude. The more likely scenario is that the federal government will continue on its present course, funding research and development, investing in energy efficient technologies, and supporting voluntary measures. Under this scenario, states and the private sector would continue to function as the 'laboratories' to develop new ideas to improve energy

  11. Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo

  12. Technology policy for climate change mitigation: a transatlantic perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This workshop was the second climate policy conference jointly organized by RFF and IFRI in Paris. (The first one, ''How to Make Progress Post-Kyoto?'', was held on March 19, 2003). This Summary Paper is divided into two parts: The first part presents short summaries of all the presentations at the workshop (rationale and past experience in technology policies, the challenges and policy responses of the climate friendly technologies). The second part, which is an edited version of the closing remarks by Pierre Noel (Ifri), highlights some of the policy lessons that emerged from the workshop. (A.L.B.)

  13. Technology policy for climate change mitigation: a transatlantic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This workshop was the second climate policy conference jointly organized by RFF and IFRI in Paris. (The first one, ''How to Make Progress Post-Kyoto?'', was held on March 19, 2003). This Summary Paper is divided into two parts: The first part presents short summaries of all the presentations at the workshop (rationale and past experience in technology policies, the challenges and policy responses of the climate friendly technologies). The second part, which is an edited version of the closing remarks by Pierre Noel (Ifri), highlights some of the policy lessons that emerged from the workshop. (A.L.B.)

  14. Climate: Policy, Modeling, and Federal Priorities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koonin, S.; Department Of Energy Office Of The Under SecretaryScience

    2010-12-01

    The Administration has set ambitious national goals to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The US and other countries involved in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change continue to work toward a goal of establishing a viable treaty that would encompass limits on emissions and codify actions that nations would take to reduce emissions. These negotiations are informed by the science of climate change and by our understanding of how changes in technology and the economy might affect the overall climate in the future. I will describe the present efforts within the U.S. Department of Energy, and the federal government more generally, to address issues related to climate change. These include state-of-the-art climate modeling and uncertainty assessment, economic and climate scenario planning based on best estimates of different technology trajectories, adaption strategies for climate change, and monitoring and reporting for treaty verification.

  15. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Enriquez-de-Salamanca, Alvaro; Diaz Sierra, R.; Martin-Aranda, Rosa; Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship

  16. Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

    2012-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and

  17. European Union Climate Change Policy: in the nexus of internal policy-making and itnernational negotiations

    OpenAIRE

    Cao, Hui

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the dissertation is to examine the European Union s climate policy in the nexus of domestic policy-making and international negotiations. I firstly test the EU s internal climate policy-making by applying the rational choice institutionalism on the model of institution and preference affect EU s policy outcomes and conclude that: as the EU has a convergent preference, the EU s unique decision-making procedure, the entrepreneurship and EU s membership had been driving EU s climate...

  18. Power Generation Technology Choice in the Presence of Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pettersson, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    The overall purpose of this thesis is to analyze power generation technology choices in the presence of climate policy. Special attention is paid to the diffusion of renewable power technologies following a carbon pricing policy, and this topic is analyzed in two self-contained papers. The overall objective of paper 1 is to analyze how future investments in the Swedish power sector can be affected by carbon pricing policies following the Kyoto Protocol. In the first part we focus on the price of carbon following the Kyoto commitments and to what extent this policy will affect the relative competitiveness of the available investment alternatives. The second part pays attention to the possible impacts of technology learning - and the resulting cost decreases - on the economics of power generation in the presence of climate policy. The first part considers the majority of power generation technologies available in Sweden, while the second part focuses solely on the competition between combined cycle natural gas plants and the cheapest renewable power alternative, wind power. Methodologically, we approach the above issues from the perspective of a power generator who considers investing in new generation capacity. This implies that we first of all assess the lifetime engineering costs of different power generation technologies in Sweden, and analyze the impact of carbon pricing on the competitive cost position of these technologies under varying rate-of-return requirements. Overall the results indicate that in general it is not certain that compliance with the Kyoto commitments implies substantial increases in renewable power sources. If, therefore, renewable power sources are favored for reasons beyond climate policy additional policy instruments will be needed. The purpose of paper 2 is to analyze the costs for reducing CO 2 emissions in the power-generating sectors in Croatia, the European part of Russia, Macedonia, Serbia and the Ukraine in 2020 by using a linear

  19. Emissions trading for climate policy - US and European perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernd Hansjuergens (ed.) [Martin Luther-Universitaet Halle-Wittenburg (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    The 1997 Kyoto Conference introduced emissions trading as a new policy instrument for climate protection. Bringing together scholars in the fields of economics, political science and law, this book provides a description, analysis and evaluation of different aspects of emissions trading as an instrument to control greenhouse gases. The authors analyse theoretical aspects of regulatory instruments for climate policy, provide an overview of US experience with market-based instruments, draw lessons from existing trading schemes for the control of greenhouse gases, and discuss options for emissions trading in climate policy. They also highlight the background of climate policy and instrument choice in the US and Europe and of the emerging new systems in Europe, particularly the new EU's directive for a CO{sub 2} emissions trading system. 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  20. Aligning California's Transportation Funding with Its Climate Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    California has established itself as a leader in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. At the same time, the state has not reflected its ambitious policies for GHG reduction and climate action in its practices for allo...

  1. ÉCLAIRE - Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution Impacts and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems - Key Messages for Policy Makers, Year 1

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, Mark; Howard, Clare

    2013-01-01

    The central goal of ÉCLAIRE is to assess how future climate change may alter the extent to which air pollutants have adverse effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Based on the emerging activities of the first year, it is now hypothesized that, that climate change will worsen the threat of air pollutants on Europe’s ecosystems: Climate warming may cause an increase the emissions of many trace gases, such as biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), ammonia (NH3) and the soil component of nitro...

  2. Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

    2001-08-01

    The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m{sup 2} of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation.

  3. Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

    2001-08-01

    The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m 2 of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation

  4. Co-creation of climate change mitigation policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, Jens Villiam

    The focus of this paper is on the places where citizens and public authorities meet – possible involving other stakeholders as well – to discuss, formulate and implement climate change mitigation policies at the local level. Through looking at a number of concrete cases stemming from the CIDEA re...... mitigation policies should be aimed at finding ways to support citizen initiated initiatives to a greater extent than is currently the case. Keywords: climate change mitigation, co-creation, behaviour, communities, citizen driven innovation....

  5. World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030. WETO 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Starting from a set of clear key assumptions on economic activity, population and hydrocarbon resources, WETO describes in detail scenarios for the evolution of World and European energy systems, power generation technologies and impacts of climate change policy in the main world regions or countries.It presents a coherent framework to analyse the energy, technology and environment trends and issues over the period to 2030, focusing on Europe in a world context. Three of the key results of this work are: (1) in a Reference scenario, i.e.if no strong specific policy initiatives and measures are taken, world CO2 emissions are expected to double in 2030 and, with a share of 90%, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy system; (2) the great majority of the increase in oil production will come from OPEC countries and the EU will rely predominantly on natural gas imported from the CIS; and (3) as the largest growing energy demand and CO2 emissions originate from developing countries (mainly China and India), Europe will have to intensify its co-operation, particularly in terms of transfer of technologies. The analysis of long-term scenarios and a particular attention to the energy world context, is an important element for efficient energy, technology and environment policies towards a sustainable world

  6. Should the EU climate policy framework be reformed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ELLISON

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Though to-date the European Union (EU has played the most significant leadership role in international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, the emission-reducing performance of individual EU Member states has for many been less than stellar. Several EU15 Member states continue to raise rather than lower emissions. Analysing the most successful policy instruments, this paper argues EU policy efforts could benefit from three important innovations. The following strategies – the adoption of an EU-wide FIT (feed-in tariff, an EU-wide carbon tax and more flexibility in the trading of carbon credits – could significantly improve emission reductions, their relative cost-efficiency and spread burden-sharing more evenly across technologies and Member states. This raises important questions, both about the effectiveness of EU and Kyoto-style commitments, as well as the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS. The commitment strategy, and in particular the EU ETS mechanism, have had the smallest impact on emission reductions. The proposed set of strategies could make a far greater contribution to future EU efforts and potentially lock in the impressive progress already made. Such a policy shift, if successful, would also greatly enhance the EU’s already significant credibility and bargaining power in international climate negotiations.

  7. Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; McGlade, Christophe; Hilaire, Jérôme; Ekins, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies1. Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities2-4, which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments5,6, the Paris Agreement on climate7 signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 °C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 20308-10. However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy-economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox11 and the divestment effect12, which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions.

  8. Climate change mitigation policy paradigms — national objectives and alignments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Garg, Amit; Christensen, John M.

    2014-01-01

    for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options......, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have...... been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together...

  9. How will climate change policy affect upstream oil and gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyndman, R.

    2003-01-01

    This presentation outlined the status of climate change policies in Canada and Alberta for large industry with particular reference to the effect that the policies may have on upstream oil and gas. Global climate change and energy use was outlined along with what actions that should be taken to secure energy supplies and stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An economic model projection of global carbon dioxide emissions without the Kyoto agreement was presented. Global action on climate change will likely include greater efforts in energy efficiency to slow the growth in demand for energy. However, demand for oil and gas is still likely to increase in the next few decades due to a growing population worldwide. The author emphasized that developing countries should not forgo economic growth to avoid higher energy use. It was argued that Canadian climate change policies are out of line with the global climate change effort because they focus on short-term reductions rather than developing technologies. The policies also divert investment to competing suppliers that do not impose GHG costs, with no global GHG benefit. The author described why Alberta climate change policy rejects the Kyoto target. Natural Resource Canada's approach to large industrial emitters was also discussed along with a proposed policy framework by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) for long term certainty. 2 tabs., 12 figs

  10. Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

  11. Mitigation and Adaptation within a Climate Policy Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term ques...

  12. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  13. The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation Through Urban Policy Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chu, E.K.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is increasingly posing risks to infrastructure and public services in cities across the global South. Building on ideas of policy experimentation at the nexus of institutional and transition theories, this paper assesses six climate change adaptation experiments across the cities of

  14. Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Nkem, J.N.; Locatelli, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay

  15. Local climate change policy in the United Kingdom and Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Bulkeley, Harriet; Kern, Kristine

    2004-01-01

    "For over a decade climate change has been considered one of the most significant political issues facing the international community. In order to address this challenge, attention needs to be focused not only at the international level of treaties and conventions, but also on how climate protection policy is taking shape at the local level. Germany and the UK have been leading countries for international action on climate change. However, the reductions in domestic emissions of greenhouse ga...

  16. Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

  17. The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cariolle, D.

    1999-01-01

    This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

  18. Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H

    2015-12-29

    Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

  19. Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambarelli, G.; Goria, A.

    2004-07-01

    The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

  20. European climate change policy beyond 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    There is an increasing scientific consensus that human activities do trigger climate changes. Actual forecasts predict temperature increases that are likely to be beyond the adaptation potential of ecosystems. These considerations play a major role in shaping public opinion and the media landscape, culminating in the view that Europe needs to play a leading role in combating climate change.

  1. Chinese and Russian Policies on Climate Change: Implications for U.S. National Security Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    crop productivity in China by 2030 as a result of climate change, and a decline of up to 37 percent in rice, maize , and wheat yields after 2050...against global warming. Comparing and contrasting China’s and Russia’s climate change policies and programs may also help to identify gaps in...adequate measures to adapt agriculture to climate change, the annual economic loss from a decrease in climate-determined crop yield in Russia is

  2. Globalisation and climate change in Asia: the urban health impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munslow, Barry; O'Dempsey, Tim

    2010-01-01

    Asia's economic development successes will create new policy areas to address, as the advances made through globalisation create greater climate change challenges, particularly the impact on urban health. Poverty eradication and higher standards of living both increase demand on resources. Globalisation increases inequalities and those who are currently the losers will carry the greatest burden of the costs in the form of the negative effects of climate change and the humanitarian crises that will ensue. Of four major climate change challenges affecting the environment and health, two—urban air pollution and waste management—can be mitigated by policy change and technological innovation if sufficient resources are allocated. Because of the urban bias in the development process, these challenges will probably register on policy makers' agenda. The second two major challenges—floods and drought—are less amenable to policy and technological solutions: many humanitarian emergency challenges lie ahead. This article describes the widely varying impact of both globalisation and climate change across Asia. The greatest losers are those who flee one marginal location, the arid inland areas, only to settle in another marginal location in the flood prone coastal slums. Effective preparation is required, and an effective response when subsequent humanitarian crises occur.

  3. Impacts, risks, and governance of climate engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Liu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate engineering is a potential alternative method to curb global warming, and this discipline has garnered considerable attention from the international scientific community including the Chinese scientists. This manuscript provides an overview of several aspects of climate engineering, including its definition, its potential impacts and risk, and its governance status. The overall conclusion is that China is not yet ready to implement climate engineering. However, it is important for China to continue conducting research on climate engineering, particularly with respect to its feasible application within China, its potential social, economic, and environmental impacts, and possible international governance structures and governing principles, with regard to both experimentation and implementation.

  4. A top-down bottom-up modeling approach to climate change policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuladhar, Sugandha D.; Yuan, Mei; Bernstein, Paul; Montgomery, W. David; Smith, Anne

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes macroeconomic impacts of U.S. climate change policies for three different emissions pathways using a top-down bottom-up integrated model. The integrated model couples a technology-rich, bottom-up model of the U.S. electricity sector with a fully dynamic, forward-looking general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. Our model provides a unique and consistent modeling framework for climate change analysis. Because of the model's detail and flexibility, we use it to examine additional scenarios to analyze many of the major uncertainties surrounding the implementation and impact of climate change policies - the role of command-and-control measures, loss in flexibility mechanisms such as banking, limits on low-emitting technology, and availability of offsets. The results consistently demonstrate that those policies that combine market-oriented abatement incentives with full flexibility are the most cost-effective. (author)

  5. Adapting fishing policies to address climate change in West Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-04-21

    Apr 21, 2011 ... ... French acronym APPECCAO) aims to integrate an improved understanding of climate change's ... The project builds on two existing regional structures: ENDA's West African Fisheries Policy Network (Reseau sur les ... policies, including those coordinated by the New Partnership for Africa's Development, ...

  6. Climate policy and nonrenewable resources : The green paradox and beyond

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pittel, Karen; van der Ploeg, Rick; Withagen, Cees

    2014-01-01

    Recent developments suggest that well-intended climate policies–including carbon taxes and subsidies for renewable energy – might not accomplish what policy makers intend. Hans-Werner Sinn has described a "green paradox," arguing that these policies could hasten global warming by encouraging owners

  7. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

    2017-10-01

    Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

  8. Teacher-student relationship climate and school outcomes: implications for educational policy initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barile, John P; Donohue, Dana K; Anthony, Elizabeth R; Baker, Andrew M; Weaver, Scott R; Henrich, Christopher C

    2012-03-01

    In recent discussions regarding concerns about the academic achievement of US students, educational policy makers have suggested the implementation of certain teacher policies. To address the limited empirical research on the putative educational impact of such policies, this study used multilevel structural equation models to investigate the longitudinal associations between teacher evaluation and reward policies, and student mathematics achievement and dropout with a national sample of students (n = 7,779) attending one of 431 public high schools. The student sample included an equal number of boys and girls averaging 16 years of age, and included a White (53%) majority. This study examined whether associations between teacher policies and student achievement were mediated by the teacher-student relationship climate. Results of this study were threefold. First, teacher evaluation policies that allowed students to evaluate their teachers were associated with more positive student reports of the classroom teaching climate. Second, schools with teacher reward policies that included assigning higher performing teachers with higher performing students had a negative association with student perceptions of the teaching climate. Lastly, schools with better student perceptions of the teaching climate were associated with lower student dropout rates by students' senior year. These findings are discussed in light of their educational policy implications.

  9. Is climate change-centrism an optimal policy making strategy to set national electricity mixes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vázquez-Rowe, Ian; Reyna, Janet L.; García-Torres, Samy; Kahhat, Ramzy

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The impact of climate-centric policies on other environmental impacts is uncertain. • Analysis of changing electricity grids of Peru and Spain in the period 1989–2013. • Life Cycle Assessment was the selected sustainability method to conduct the study. • Policies targeting GHG reductions also reduce air pollution and toxicity. • Resource usage, especially water, does not show the same trends as GHG emissions. - Abstract: In order to combat the threat of climate change, countries have begun to implement policies which restrict GHG emissions in the electricity sector. However, the development of national electricity mixes should also be sensitive to resource availability, geo-political forces, human health impacts, and social equity concerns. Policy focused on GHG goals could potentially lead to adverse consequences in other areas. To explore the impact of “climate-centric” policy making on long-term electricity mix changes, we develop two cases for Peru and Spain analyzing their changing electricity grids in the period 1989–2013. We perform a Life Cycle Assessment of annual electricity production to catalogue the improvements in GHG emissions relative to other environmental impacts. We conclude that policies targeting GHG reductions might have the co-benefit of also reducing air pollution and toxicity at the expense of other important environmental performance indicators such as water depletion. Moreover, as of 2013, both countries generate approximately equal GHG emissions per kWh, and relatively low emission rates of other pollutants compared to nations of similar development levels. Although climate-centric policy can lead to some positive environmental outcomes in certain areas, energy policy-making should be holistic and include other aspects of sustainability and vulnerability.

  10. Paradigms of global climate change and sustainable development: Issues and related policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabhat Kumar Rai

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Combating climate change is intimately linked with peace and resource equity. Therefore, critical link establishment between climate change and sustainable development is extremely relevant in global scenario. Following the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, the international sustainable development agenda was taken up by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD; the climate change agenda was carried forward by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC. International and local climate change mitigation policies need to be assessed based on sustainability criteria. The increasing concern over climate change drives towards the search of solutions enabling to combat climate change into broader context of sustainable development. The core element of sustainable development is the integration of economic, social and environmental concerns in policy-making. Therefore, article also analyzes post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes and their impact on sustainable development. Wide range of post- Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures has different impact on different groups of countries. Nevertheless, there are several reasons for optimism that sustainable consumption patterns might develop. One is the diversity of current consumption patterns and the growing minority concerned with ethical consumption. Another is the growing understanding of innovation processes, developed to address technological change, but applicable to social innovation. A third reason is the growing reflexivity of communities and institutions.

  11. Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randalls, Samuel

    2011-01-01

    Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

  12. Climate impacts on the cost of solar energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flowers, Mallory E.; Smith, Matthew K.; Parsekian, Ara W.; Boyuk, Dmitriy S.; McGrath, Jenna K.; Yates, Luke

    2016-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) estimates are widely utilized by decision makers to predict the long-term cost and benefits of solar PV installations, but fail to consider local climate, which impacts PV panel lifetime and performance. Specific types of solar PV panels are known to respond to climate factors differently. Mono-, poly-, and amorphous-silicon (Si) PV technologies are known to exhibit varying degradation rates and instantaneous power losses as a function of operating temperature, humidity, thermal cycling, and panel soiling. We formulate an extended LCOE calculation, which considers PV module performance and lifespan as a function of local climate. The LCOE is then calculated for crystalline and amorphous Si PV technologies across several climates. Finally, we assess the impact of various policy incentives on reducing the firm's cost of solar deployment when controlling for climate. This assessment is the first to quantify tradeoffs between technologies, geographies, and policies in a unified manner. Results suggest crystalline Si solar panels as the most promising candidate for commercial-scale PV systems due to their low degradation rates compared to amorphous technologies. Across technologies, we note the strong ability of investment subsidies in removing uncertainty and reducing the LCOE, compared to production incentives. - Highlights: •We integrate local climate into the Levelized Cost of photovoltaic technology. •Climate dictates panel degradation rates and the impact of temperature on efficiency. •We compare LCOE under policy scenarios for three technologies in four U. S. states. •Degradation is highly variable, increasing costs by shortening panel life in many regions. •Incentives targeting investment are most effective at reducing solar deployment costs.

  13. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  14. An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

    2018-01-01

    Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

  15. Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Felicity; Sabel, Clive E.; Morton, Katherine; Hiscock, Rosemary; Depledge, Michael H.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Incorporates wellbeing into understandings of climate change impacts on health. • Considers a range of secondary impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. • Examines co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for health and wellbeing. • Emphasises the spatially and socially differentiated repercussions of adaptation and mitigation measures. - Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors

  16. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  17. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, John F

    2007-12-11

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

  18. Adaptation to climate change. Strategy and policy; Aanpassing aan klimaatverandering. Strategie en beleid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-15

    The Court of Audit investigated the Dutch 'climate adaptation policy', or the measures taken to adapt to the impacts of climate change Netherlands and thus reduce its vulnerability [Dutch] De Algemene Rekenkamer heeft onderzoek gedaan naar het Nederlandse 'klimaatadaptatiebeleid', oftewel naar de maatregelen die worden getroffen om Nederland aan te passen aan de gevolgen van de klimaatverandering en zodoende minder kwetsbaar te maken.

  19. Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to climate change involves private and public investment decisions in the face of climate and policy uncertainties. The authors present a framework for analysis of adaptation as an investment, based on elements of the economics, finance, and ecological economics literatures. They use this framework to assess critically impact and adaptation studies, and discuss how research could be designed to support public and private investment decisions. They t...

  20. Reconstructing Noah’s ark : Integration of climate change adaptation into Swedish public policy

    OpenAIRE

    Glaas, Erik

    2013-01-01

    Due to expected impacts such as flooding, landslides, and biodiversity loss, climate change adaptation has become recognized as an inevitable part of climate change policy and practice. However, our understanding of how to organize the management of adaptation is lacking, and few concrete measures have yet been implemented. Knowledge gaps exist relating to constraints on and opportunities and facilitating factors for adaptation. This study aims to fill such gaps by analyzing how Swedish clima...

  1. Reducing conflicts between climate policy and energy policy in the US: The important role of the states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, Thomas D.; Rose, Adam Z.

    2006-01-01

    The absence of US national action on global climate change policy has prompted initiatives by the US Congress, cities, states, and regions toward what is likely to become a long-term, collaborative effort to harmonize national energy and climate policies. This upward evolution in the face of a reluctant administration is historically consistent with the development of national legislation on other environmental and social issues in the US. At the heart of this movement is the need to resolve conflicts between high-intensity use of low-cost fossil energy supplies, and the dominating impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global climate change. US states are among the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the world and play a critical role in supplying and transforming energy, as well as consuming it, for economic advantage. State governments are also likely to have to shoulder some of the cost of potentially extensive climate damages and bear the brunt of the cost of implementing future federal mandates. As a result, many are taking proactive stances on the development of climate mitigation policy to prepare for, accelerate, and/or guide national policy. As US states show leadership on addressing greenhouse gas emissions, they also play an important role in forging policies and measures that reduce economic conflict between energy and climate goals. A number have launched or completed greenhouse gas mitigation plans and other major policies in the past few years that address these conflicts through: (1) finding ways to reduce mitigation costs, including the use of incentive-based policy instruments; (2) promoting an open and democratic policy process that includes major stakeholders; (3) promoting equity across socioeconomic groups, regions, and generations; and (4) promoting interregional cooperation. The results are promising and suggest that the state arena for climate and energy policy is evolving quickly and constructively toward alternatives that reduce conflict

  2. Climate policy in Belgium and the Flemish District

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sereno, M.

    2001-01-01

    According to the agreement of the Environment Ministers' Council of the European Union Belgium will have to reduce its overall greenhouse gas emissions by 7,5 % during the first commitment period (2008-2012) in relation to the reference year 1990. International climate change policy is implemented by Belgian federal authorities responsible for fiscal, labelling and product policies and regional authorities (Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels) responsible for energy, environmental and agricultural policies. This article discusses the important issues raised by Belgian federal and Flemish regional climate change policy. It focuses onto the Belgian national climate change plan' and the Flemish Region's policies as laid down in its regional Environmental Policy Plan. The overall context of this article is given in by the international climate change negotiations in The Hague during the sixth Conference of the Parties in execution of the United Nation's Framework on Climate Change. In conclusion of this article a brief overview of the Belgian point of view on the failed negotiations in The Hague is given. 6 refs

  3. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  4. Beyond Bush: Environmental politics and prospects for US climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, Paul G.

    2009-01-01

    The United States was a pioneer in domestic environmental lawmaking, and it was a leader in international environmental cooperation in the final decades of the last century. During the current decade, however, it has moved away from cooperating with other states in finding new ways to protect the global environment. While its early efforts to address climate change were no worse, and often better than, other developed countries, it has fallen far behind as a number of European states and the European Union have started to implement robust policies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. This chapter recounts this evolution in US policy from environmental leader to environmental laggard. It summarizes the US climate change-related policies and diplomacy, recounting significant events during the presidential administrations of George HW Bush, Bill Clinton and George W Bush. It then extends this summary of events to assess the prospects for US climate policy in the near future

  5. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  6. Climate policy in India: what shapes international, national and state policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atteridge, Aaron; Shrivastava, Manish Kumar; Pahuja, Neha; Upadhyay, Himani

    2012-01-01

    At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level.

  7. Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leggett, Jane A

    2007-01-01

    .... Although natural forces such as solar irradiance and volcanoes contribute to variability, scientists cannot explain the climate changes of the past few decades without including the effects of elevated greenhouse gas (GHG...

  8. Natural gas, uncertainty, and climate policy in the US electric power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bistline, John E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates how uncertainties related to natural gas prices and potential climate policies may influence capacity investments, utilization, and emissions in US electricity markets. Using a two-stage stochastic programming approach, model results suggest that climate policies are stronger drivers of greenhouse gas emission trajectories than new natural gas supplies. The dynamics of learning and irreversibility may give rise to an investment climate where strategic delay is optimal. Hedging strategies are shown to be sensitive to the specification of probability distributions for climate policy and natural gas prices, highlighting the important role of uncertainty quantification in future research. The paper also illustrates how this stochastic modeling framework could be used to quantify the value of limiting methane emissions from natural gas production. - Highlights: • This paper examines how uncertainty may impact natural gas in the power sector. • Uncertainties like gas prices, upstream emissions, and climate policy are modeled. • Climate policies are stronger drivers of emissions than gas supply conditions. • Lower gas prices are likely to spark greater utilization of existing capacity. • Irreversibility and uncertainty may make strategic delay optimal

  9. R and D Subsidies and Climate Policy. Is There a 'Free Lunch'?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popp, D.

    2006-01-01

    Because of the long-term nature of the climate problem, technological advances are often seen as an important component of any solution. However, when considering the potential for technology to help solve the climate problem, two market failures exist which lead to underinvestment in climate-friendly R and D: environmental externalities and the public goods nature of new knowledge. As a result, government subsidies to climate-friendly R and D projects are often proposed as part of a policy solution. Using the ENTICE model, I analyze the effectiveness of such subsidies, both with and without other climate policies, such as a carbon tax. While R and D subsidies do lead to significant increases in climate-friendly R and D, this R and D has little impact on the climate itself. Subsidies address the problem of knowledge as a public good, but they do not address the environmental externality, and thus offer no additional incentive to adopt new technologies. Moreover, high opportunity costs to R and D limit the potential role that subsidies can play. While R and D subsidies can improve efficiency, policies that directly affect the environmental externality have a much larger impact on both atmospheric temperature and economic welfare

  10. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailesh Shrestha

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

  11. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yator, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely

  12. Water demand management: A policy response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivers, R.; Tate, D.

    1990-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Great Lakes region are discussed. It is predicted that there will be a relative water scarcity in the Great Lakes basin of Ontario as climate changes occur over the next two decades. Declines in water supply will be accompanied by deterioration in the quality of fresh water as higher temperatures and higher relative quantities of discharged wastewater to water bodies reduce both assimilative and dilutive capacity. The most cost effective policy is to encourage water conservation through programs of water demand management. Water should be priced at the point at which its marginal cost is equal to its marginal product, ie. if priced any higher, less efficient substitutes would be used. Not only would water usage, and subsequent degradation of used water, be reduced, but energy and other cost savings would be achieved. The additional costs that apply to water users could be returned to the communities as additional revenue to be applied against sewage treatment upgrades and other environmental enhancements. Communities involved in water study should consider the development of water use analysis models to assist with decision making about allocation, pricing and availability of water supplies. 10 refs

  13. Venezuelan policies and responses on climate change and natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponi, Claudio; Rosales, Anibal

    1992-06-01

    Venezuela is an intertropical country which has the fortune not to suffer the severities of natural hazards which are usual in other countries of this region. It is a developing country, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil production and exports. Its greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low, but it is expected that the planned industrialization development will bring an associated increase in emissions. As a nation, Venezuela has a highly developed environmental consciousness. The Ministry of environment, the first in Latin America, was created in 1977, and has been the main contributor to the national policy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction. As in many developing countries actions and responses in this regard have been rather limited in scope, and even though legislation has been developed, many problems arise for its enforcement. Several local warning systems, civil defense procedures, and infrastructural protection measures are operational, however they have not been designed, revised, or planned taking into consideration the potential impacts of climate change. Presently Venezuela is an active participant state in the negotiation for a framework convention on climate change. That is a very difficult negotiation for our country. Here we have to conciliate enviromental principles with national economic interests. The elements of our position in this contex are presented in this statement.

  14. Good things do not always come in threes: On the excess cost of overlapping regulation in EU climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Böhringer, Christoph; Keller, Andreas; Bortolamedi, Markus; Rahmeier Seyffarth, Anelise

    2016-01-01

    Since the mid-1990's the European Union (EU) aims at pushing global climate policy. The objective is to promote international cooperation by the adoption of substantial EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and their least-cost implementation. Our quantitative impact assessment of the EU Climate and Energy Package shows that the myriad of instruments used in the EU to curb greenhouse gas emissions is doomed to generate substantial excess cost. We conclude that EU climate and energy policy should better disentangle its choices of objectives, targets, and policy instruments on rigorous economic grounds in order to improve the coherence and overall cost-effectiveness of policy initiatives. - Highlights: •EU Climate and Energy Package almost quintuples costs for EU-wide emission abatement. •The main source of excess cost of EU climate policy are energy efficiency mandates.

  15. Bridging the Gap between Climate Research and Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, M.; Lambert, K. F.; Buonocore, J.; Driscoll, C. T.

    2016-12-01

    The weak link between science and policy jeopardizes the wellbeing of people and the planet. Climate change is a pressing example of this disconnect. Policies are not keeping pace with the best of our knowledge from climate change research. We are working to bridge the science-policy divide and advance climate solutions by focusing on the positive health, ecosystem, and economic benefits of policy action. In 2013, we brought together an interdisciplinary team to estimate the co-benefits of U.S. power plant carbon standards for air quality and health, plus the economic value of the benefits. The results demonstrate that strong carbon standards with flexible compliance options can change the power sector, yielding substantial air quality and health benefits nationwide. The results also show that the economic value of these benefits outweighs the costs nationally and regionally. We advanced the policy applications of this research through a strategic campaign with three key elements: media communication, targeted outreach, and information for policymakers. Our strategy was to build widespread awareness of the research outcomes via media engagement, amplify our message via targeted outreach to citizens groups, and inform policy solutions by sharing research results with decision makers. The research was reported in more than 600 unique news stories in mainstream media outlets and received social media posts by members of Congress and senior White House officials. We amplified the messages via 14 webinars for citizens groups. We also held 16 briefings for policymakers and the public, in addition to meetings with relevant policy staff. Regional, state and federal policy leaders have used the research to understand air quality and health benefits of power plant carbon standards. This model of pairing research with media communication, targeted outreach, and information for policymakers is effective for bridging the gap between climate research and policy, and can be

  16. Social and economic impacts of climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

    2016-09-09

    For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  17. African voices on climate change. Policy concerns and potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silveira, S.

    1994-01-01

    This publication is the result of a process of building an understanding and facilitating a dialogue on the issues related to climate change, on the implications that climate change have to Africa, and on the relevance of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for the continent. Research work was carried out over a year and twelve African countries were directly engaged in this projects, contributing with the work and expertise of their specialists. A whole process of discussions was started aiming not only at identifying questions concerning the countries directly involved but at illustrating the diversity of Africa's economies and societies, and attempting to raise common issues of interest for the whole of the continent. The objective of this publication is to provide a starting point for the discussions to take place during the African Conference on Policy Options and Responses to Climate Change, 5-8 December 1994, in Nairobi. This conference is not only the culmination of 'Climate and Africa' but, most of all, it opens a forum for discussions on climate issues among African policy makers and for building African positions in relation to the Climate Convention. The ideas expressed here are drawn from the material produced in the Climate and Africa Project. Therefore, this publication does not necessarily represent the positions of the Stockholm Environment Institute or the African Center for Technology Studies in relation to Africa and the Climate Convention

  18. Climate change and deforestation: the evolution of an intersecting policy domain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buizer, I.M.; Humphreys, D.; Jong, de W.

    2014-01-01

    Forests and climate change are increasingly dealt with as interconnected policy issues. Both the potential synergies and policy conflicts between forest conservation and restoration and climate change mitigation now receive sustained and high level attention from academic, policy analysis and

  19. Municipal climate change policies. A case study for Amsterdam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schol, E.; Van den Bosch, A.; Ligthart, F.A.T.M.; Roemer, J.C.; Ruijg, G.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Dinkelman, G.H.; Kok, I.C.; De Paauw, K.F.B.

    1999-01-01

    Insight in the local policy options with respect to climate change is provided, in this case within the sphere of influence of Amsterdam local authorities. A list of new policy options for CO 2 reduction has been made with the assistance of local policy makers and representatives of interest groups. These policy options have been divided into three qualitative scenarios: Institutional Cultural Change, Technological Innovation and Least-Regrets. The environmental, economic and other effects have been described for each policy option. The three most interesting policy options have been selected by local policymakers and representatives of interest groups during a workshop. Implementation strategies have been developed for the options selected. These strategies have been discussed during a second workshop. The reduction target, stabilisation of CO 2 emissions in 2015 compared to 1993, can be reached by a combination of all the new policy options. The three selected policy options count for 40% of this total CO 2 emission reduction. Finally, a general outline on the methodology can also be applied to other cities and municipalities. For example, this methodology can be used by participants of Cities for Climate Protection, an initiative of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, or the Netherlands Climate Association. 136 refs

  20. World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030 - WETO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    WETO describes in detail scenarios for the evolution of World and European energy systems, power generation technologies and impacts of climate change policy in the main world regions or countries. It presents a coherent framework to analyse the energy, technology and environment trends and issues over the period to 2030, focusing on Europe in a world context. The document highlights three key topics. First, in a Reference scenario, i.e. if no strong specific policy initiatives and measures are taken, world CO 2 emissions are expected to double in 2030 and, with a share of 90%, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy system. Secondly, the great majority of the increase in oil production will come from OPEC countries and the EU will rely predominantly on natural gas imported from the CIS. Lastly, as the largest growing energy demand and CO 2 emissions originate from developing countries (mainly China and India), Europe will have to intensify its co-operation, particularly in terms of transfer of technologies. (A.L.B.)

  1. Adapting to the impacts of climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change; National Research Council

    2010-01-01

    "Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing...

  2. Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  3. Nuclear power and post-2012 energy and climate change policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisser, Daniel; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2008-01-01

    At present there is no binding agreement (at a global level) to address the risk of anthropogenic climate change after 2012. Disagreements abound with respect to a post-2012 climate change agreement, on issues such as economic development, policy criteria, environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, equity, dynamic flexibility, complementarity, enforceability and so on. One such disagreement is whether or not nuclear power should play a role in a post-2012 climate change agreement. This qualitative analysis explores the conditions under which nuclear power could contribute to addressing climate change in post-2012 architectures. It reveals that - given the right framework conditions - some architectures, like 'cap and trade' regimes or 'policies and measures' can improve the competitiveness of nuclear power plants, while others are unlikely to provide incentives for nuclear energy development in the short to medium term, such as adaptation and technology cooperation. Overall, the study concludes that post-2012 climate change policy should aim at providing policy flexibility without compromising technology flexibility. For example, the provision of long-term commitment periods has the potential to enable better investments in existing low-carbon technologies but stifle the policy flexibility that political decision makers are often keen to retain so that they can respond more quickly to new scientific evidence or advances in clean technology development

  4. Directed technical change and differentiation of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otto, Vincent M.; Loeschel, Andreas; Reilly, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward looking model that captures empirical links between CO 2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find our most cost effective climate policy to include a combination of R and D subsidies and CO 2 emission constraints, although R and D subsidies raise the shadow value of the CO 2 constraint (i.e. CO 2 price) because of a strong rebound effect from stimulating innovation. Furthermore, we find that cost effectiveness of climate policy improves if it is differentiated between technologies. Even our rudimentary distinction between CO 2 intensive technologies and non-CO 2 intensive technologies lead to this result. Such differentiated climate policy encourages growth in the non-CO 2 intensive sectors and discourages growth in CO 2 intensive sectors by harnessing positive effects of technology externalities on total factor productivity in the former and letting the latter bear relatively more of the abatement burden. This result is robust to whether emission constraints, R and D subsidies or combinations of both are used as climate policy instruments. (author)

  5. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  6. Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

    2015-02-01

    Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

  7. Economic and welfare impacts of climate change on developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winters, P.; Murgai, R.; Sadoulet, E.; De Janvry, A.; Frisvold, G.

    1998-01-01

    The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia. 46 refs

  8. Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse; hide

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

  9. Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Melissa Rojas-Downing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for livestock products is expected to double by 2050, mainly due to improvement in the worldwide standard of living. Meanwhile, climate change is a threat to livestock production because of the impact on quality of feed crop and forage, water availability, animal and milk production, livestock diseases, animal reproduction, and biodiversity. This study reviews the global impacts of climate change on livestock production, the contribution of livestock production to climate change, and specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the livestock sector. Livestock production will be limited by climate variability as animal water consumption is expected to increase by a factor of three, demand for agricultural lands increase due to need for 70% growth in production, and food security concern since about one-third of the global cereal harvest is used for livestock feed. Meanwhile, the livestock sector contributes 14.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, driving further climate change. Consequently, the livestock sector will be a key player in the mitigation of GHG emissions and improving global food security. Therefore, in the transition to sustainable livestock production, there is a need for: a assessments related to the use of adaptation and mitigation measures tailored to the location and livestock production system in use, and b policies that support and facilitate the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.

  10. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

    2016-12-01

    There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is

  11. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  12. The global effects of subglobal climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Fischer, Carolyn; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2010-01-01

    Individual countries are in the process of legislating responses to the challenges posed by climate change. The prospect of rising carbon prices raises concerns in these nations about the effects on the competitiveness of their own energy-intensive industries and the potential for carbon leakage,

  13. Global demographic change and climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  14. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  15. Options for including nitrogen management in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erisman, J.W.

    2010-12-01

    The outline of the presentation is as follows: Climate change and nitrogen; Nitrogen and climate interlinkages; Options for nitrogen management; Report, workshop and IPCC; and Conclusions. The concluding remarks are: Fertilizing the biosphere with reactive nitrogen compounds lead to ecosystem, health, water and climate impacts; Nitrogen deposition can lead to additional carbon sequestration and to impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services; Nitrogen addition to the biosphere might have a net cooling effect of 1 W/m 2 ; Life Cycle Analysis is needed to show the full impact; and Nitrogen management is essential for the environment and can have a positive effect on the net GHG exchange.

  16. Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Lovell, Heather

    2012-01-01

    This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

  17. The challenges and opportunities of climate change policy under different stages of economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liobikienė, Genovaitė; Butkus, Mindaugas

    2018-06-18

    Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990-2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

  19. Climate prosperity, parallel paths: Canada-U.S. climate policy choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) has conducted a study on the economic risks and opportunities of climate policies for Canada in the Canada-United States relationship background. This research aims to inform future policy decisions and provide ideas on means to serve Canadian interests in the context of this climate changing world. The NRTEE's research presented in this report focuses on the economic and environmental implications for Canada of harmonizing with the U.S. on climate policy. The document follows two main objectives: evaluate the consequences of U.S. climate policy choices for Canada and identify the policy options that would lead to a long-term reduction of emissions, taking into account the economic risks associated to policy choices in the U.S. and in Canada. According to the NRTEE, the government of Canada should take under consideration the benefits of the implementation of its own strategy for harmonization. This document provides a path leading to the achievement of a climate policy harmonization with the United States. 52 refs., 18 tabs., 24 figs.

  20. Climate change: lived experience, policy and public action

    OpenAIRE

    Abbott, Dina; Wilson, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the importance of lived experiences, as complementary knowledge to that provided by the sciences, for policy and intervention on climate change.\\ud Design/methodology/approach – This conceptual paper draws on several strands within the context of climate change: knowledge and power; human engagement; the meaning of “lived experience” (and its association with “local/indigenous knowledge”); its capture through interdisciplinary and transdiscipl...

  1. Rio - 10 Years After: A Critical Appraisal of Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Böhringer, Christoph; Vogt, Carsten

    2002-01-01

    Ten years after the initial Climate Change Convention from Rio in 1992, the developed world is likely to ratify the Kyoto Protocol which has been celebrated as a milestone in climate protection. Standard economic theory, however, casts doubt that Kyoto will go beyond symbolic policy. In this paper we show that the final concretion of the Kyoto Protocol obeys the theoretical prediction: Kyoto more or less boils down to business-as-usual without significant compliance costs to ratifying parties.

  2. Contested knowledge in Dutch climate change policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V.J.J.M. Bekkers (Victor); M.W. van Buuren (Arwin); A.R. Edwards (Arthur); H.J.M. Fenger (Menno)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractIn dealing with wicked problems, policymakers increasingly are confronted with three competing ‘knowledge claims’: the notion of evidence-based policy, alternative ‘commons knowledge’ created by citizens, and ‘fact-free’ politics. Consequently, the knowledge base for

  3. International climate change policy. Coping with differentiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, J.; Jepma, C.J.; Blok, K.

    1998-01-01

    This article focuses on the emission allowances for developed countries and compares the co-operative instruments for implementing the climate treaties. It argues that the emission allowances are mainly based on political willingness and that the flexible instruments are not yet mutually consistent and may lead to opportunistic behaviour on the part of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol. Such behaviour may hamper the achievement of the environmental goals of the Kyoto Protocol, unless the emission reduction units are made comparable. In addition, the European Union triptych approach can be applied to the developing countries in order to successfully involve them in the process without compromising their priorities. 25 refs

  4. Background document for climate change policy options in Northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newton, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents an initial compilation of background material in support of the development of climate change policy options for the jurisdictions of Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut in Northern Canada. While Northern Canada contributes only a small fraction of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, scientists forecast changes in average annual temperatures to be among the highest in the world. The Northern Climate Exchange at Yukon College was created in March 2001 to address this issue and to help guide northerners in what they can do now and in the future. This paper includes an annotated bibliography of a total of 75 international, national, and territorial policy documents and major reference documents relevant to climate change issues. It is meant to be a resource for researchers, policy analysts and government officials developing policy options and implementing programs for Northern Canada. While each of the three northern territories are at a different stage in the evolution of their climate change activities, they are all striving to develop strategies and action plans and to initiate the implementation of those plans. It is recognized that many long-standing programs and initiatives, particularly in the areas of energy efficiency and alternate energy, will help northern jurisdictions address their climate change objectives. The three territories are cooperating to deliver their message to the federal government. 75 refs., 4 figs

  5. Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Werf, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

  6. Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Mangrove ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Already under threat from water pollution, deforestation and overfishing (black conch), ... local authorities and other stakeholders, will document the impact of climate ... Adaptation strategies for two Colombian cities were discussed at ADAPTO's ... International Water Resources Association, in close collaboration with IDRC, ...

  7. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation. Report for Policy Advisors and Policy Makers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndes, Goran [Chalmers Univ. of Technology (Sweden); Bird, Nell [Joanneum Research (Austria); Cowle, Annette [National Centre for Rural Greenhouse Gas Research (Australia)

    2010-07-01

    The report addresses a much debated issue - bioenergy and associated land use change, and how the climate change mitigation from use of bioenergy can be influenced by greenhouse gas emissions arising from land use change. The purpose of the report was to produce an unbiased, authoritative statement on this topic aimed especially at policy advisors and policy makers.

  8. Status of Norwegian climate policy 2011; Statusrapport for norsk klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Norwegians are generally little impressed what Norway as a society has achieved in the climate policy. This is consistent with the actual situation as it is mapped in this year's edition of the Status of Norwegian climate policy. The results obtained in a survey by TNS Gallup which was commissioned by BI Centre for Climate Strategy in connection with the disclosure of the agency's annual status report for the Norwegian climate policy. 1000 Norwegians have been asked about how good or bad they perceive the overall results in various areas of climate policy. Even for climate-friendly heating, which is the area where most perceive that there has been progress, only 39% of the population consider the results as very good or good. In addition to heating, energy efficiency in buildings, Norway's international efforts, research on climate technology and information to the public areas where most Norwegians still think the results are good, and which are the least dissatisfied.Year Status Report on Norwegian climate policy is a joint project between the organization Holder de ord (Do they keep promises) and BI Centre for Climate Strategy. The report shows that people have a fairly accurate picture of climate policy. In most areas, there is little substantial progress since the Low Emission submitted its recommendations in 2006. It is symptomatic that climate policy was recently delayed again - now to 2012. While it is a positive development in the areas that are at the top of people's list. Since 2006, for example, there has been a substantial expansion of district heating in Norway, and building standards have become much stricter when it comes to energy use. Motor vehicle taxes are changed and greenhouse emissions from new cars is 25% lower than in 2006. Norway also play a constructive role, both in relation to the negotiations at the UN on a new climate deal, but also for example in relation to a global sectoral agreement for shipping that was signed

  9. Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai Sian Ng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The world decided in December 2015 to take actions to reduce global warming. To contribute toward this goal, this research examines possible policy levers for inclusion in the climate change ratification plan. A case study of the measures taken by the Republic of Singapore, a low-lying 719.2 km2 island without natural resources in Asia, is conducted. Being vulnerable to climate change impact and yet having to balance her people’s needs and economic progress with limited resources, the measures taken by this small country could offer policy insights for small states and states without access to alternative energy sources. This research analyzes the online policy documents posted by eleven organizations to answer the main research question of identifying policy levers as theoretical constructs to form a framework that can be used to study climate change policies. A qualitative data analysis software, QSR NVivo 10, is used to classify the proposed nodes developed by the researchers using a system perspective integrating the insights from the key international climate change frameworks with the theoretical concepts from the model of pro-environmental behavior. The findings can offer insights toward developing a new contextual influence framework, which can help strengthen policy development and outcome measurement.

  10. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Report of a Policy Forum: Weather, Climate, and Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-07-01

    The report of a policy forum on Weather, Climate, and Energy presents findings and recommendations that, if implemented, could position the energy sector, the providers of weather and climate science and services, and energy consumers to mange more cooperatively and effectively the production, distribution, and consumption of electrical power and fossil fuels. Recent U.S. experience with a series of energy shortages encouraged the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program to join with the University of Oklahoma in the development of a forum to address the issues connected with responding to those shortages. Nearly 100 representatives from the public, private, and academic portions of the energy production sector, the meteorological community, political and corporate leaders, weather risk management analysts, and policy makers met on October 16-17, 2001 to discuss these policy issues.

  12. Catching air? Climate change policy in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabonis-Helf, Theresa

    2003-01-01

    Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have each participated actively in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of the Parties, and each is developing domestic rules and institutions to address UN obligations under the treaties. Russia and Ukraine are each Annex I/Annex B countries. Kazakhstan will become Annex I upon ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, but has not yet established itself as Annex B. Each state has evolved a distinct set of policies and priorities in the domestic and the international arena. Drawing largely on interviews in each country, this article presents brief histories of the evolution of climate policy, focusing on each state's behavior in the international arena, the sources of domestic policy leadership, and the forces that led to change in each national approach. Current policies and practices are evaluated with an eye towards learning from the successes and failures in each state

  13. The grand coalition's climate policy: retrospective and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bausch, C.; Gorlach, B.

    2008-01-01

    2007 was a year of exceptional importance for Germany, due to the dual presidency and the decision to declare climate change as one of the key issues for both the G8 and the EU Presidency. Supported by public and media interest, climate change was pushed to the top of the international political agenda, at a critical time in the development of the international climate regime. Germany was able to show profile and leadership in international climate policy and Europe was able to set a political agenda and decide on targets, which have shaped European policies and legislative proposals since then, and will continue to do so into the future. In Germany, the Meseberg programme is the main initiative aiming at the implementation of climate policy, while at the European level the heads of states have been able to agree on the widely discussed climate - energy package. The authors provide an overview of the measures taken and assess them in light of the EU self-imposed political targets

  14. Wetlands in a changing climate: Science, policy and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moomaw, William R.; Chmura, G.L.; Davies, Gillian T.; Finlayson, Max; Middleton, Beth A.; Natali, Sue M.; Perry, James; Roulet, Nigel; Sutton-Grier, Ariana

    2018-01-01

    Part 1 of this review synthesizes recent research on status and climate vulnerability of freshwater and saltwater wetlands, and their contribution to addressing climate change (carbon cycle, adaptation, resilience). Peatlands and vegetated coastal wetlands are among the most carbon rich sinks on the planet sequestering approximately as much carbon as do global forest ecosystems. Estimates of the consequences of rising temperature on current wetland carbon storage and future carbon sequestration potential are summarized. We also demonstrate the need to prevent drying of wetlands and thawing of permafrost by disturbances and rising temperatures to protect wetland carbon stores and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services. Preventing further wetland loss is found to be important in limiting future emissions to meet climate goals, but is seldom considered. In Part 2, the paper explores the policy and management realm from international to national, subnational and local levels to identify strategies and policies reflecting an integrated understanding of both wetland and climate change science. Specific recommendations are made to capture synergies between wetlands and carbon cycle management, adaptation and resiliency to further enable researchers, policy makers and practitioners to protect wetland carbon and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services.

  15. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  16. Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

    2003-12-01

    Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to

  17. Climate policy studies by the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, ECON and Energy Data:10 Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andresen, S; Eikeland, P O; Eleri, E O; Fermann, G; Fredriksen, O; Halseth, A; Hansen, S; Haugland, T; Malnes, R; Skjaerseth, J B; Ottosen, R

    1993-07-01

    The overall focus is the relation between energy, environment and development on the national level and international co-operation concerning sustainable energy management and global environmental change. A series of country studies analyses the economic, political and institutional factors influencing energy, environment and climate policies. The role of non-state actors like NGOs and the energy industries in international environmental affairs is also closely examined. Strategies to enhance energy efficiency are studied with a particular focus on identifying and overcoming barriers to policy implementation. The ways in which developments in international energy markets affect the potential and scope of international environmental agreements are analysed, as are the impacts of different international environmental regimes on energy markets. Particular attention is paid on the opportunities and limitations of international institutions like the European Community, the United Nations, the multilateral development banks and GATT, in promoting international co-operation on energy and environmental issues. Strategies to overcome North/South conflicts over global environmental issues are examined, including issue linkages in international negotiations and North/South transfer of resources and technology. Another important area of sustainable production and consumption of energy in developing countries. Project titles are: 1) ''Leader'' and ''entrepreneur'' in international negotiations . A conceptual analysis. 2) Choosing climate policy. Decision theoretical premises. 3) Japan in the greenhouse responsibilities, policies and prospects for combating global warming. 4) Impacts on developing economies from changing trade regimes and growing international environmental concerns. 5) US energy policy in the greenhouse from the North slope forests to the Gulf Stream waters - this land was made for fossil fuels. 6) The climate policy of the EC - too hot to handle. 7) US climate

  18. Climate policy studies by the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, ECON and Energy Data:10 Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andresen, S.; Eikeland, P.O.; Eleri, E.O.; Fermann, G.; Fredriksen, O.; Halseth, A.; Hansen, S.; Haugland, T.; Malnes, R.; Skjaerseth, J.B.; Ottosen, R.

    1993-01-01

    The overall focus is the relation between energy, environment and development on the national level and international co-operation concerning sustainable energy management and global environmental change. A series of country studies analyses the economic, political and institutional factors influencing energy, environment and climate policies. The role of non-state actors like NGOs and the energy industries in international environmental affairs is also closely examined. Strategies to enhance energy efficiency are studied with a particular focus on identifying and overcoming barriers to policy implementation. The ways in which developments in international energy markets affect the potential and scope of international environmental agreements are analysed, as are the impacts of different international environmental regimes on energy markets. Particular attention is paid on the opportunities and limitations of international institutions like the European Community, the United Nations, the multilateral development banks and GATT, in promoting international co-operation on energy and environmental issues. Strategies to overcome North/South conflicts over global environmental issues are examined, including issue linkages in international negotiations and North/South transfer of resources and technology. Another important area of sustainable production and consumption of energy in developing countries. Project titles are: 1) ''Leader'' and ''entrepreneur'' in international negotiations . A conceptual analysis. 2) Choosing climate policy. Decision theoretical premises. 3) Japan in the greenhouse responsibilities, policies and prospects for combating global warming. 4) Impacts on developing economies from changing trade regimes and growing international environmental concerns. 5) US energy policy in the greenhouse from the North slope forests to the Gulf Stream waters - this land was made for fossil fuels. 6) The climate policy of the EC - too hot to handle. 7) US climate

  19. Climate policy studies by the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, ECON and Energy Data:10 Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andresen, S.; Eikeland, P.O.; Eleri, E.O.; Fermann, G.; Fredriksen, O.; Halseth, A.; Hansen, S.; Haugland, T.; Malnes, R.; Skjaerseth, J.B.; Ottosen, R

    1993-07-01

    The overall focus is the relation between energy, environment and development on the national level and international co-operation concerning sustainable energy management and global environmental change. A series of country studies analyses the economic, political and institutional factors influencing energy, environment and climate policies. The role of non-state actors like NGOs and the energy industries in international environmental affairs is also closely examined. Strategies to enhance energy efficiency are studied with a particular focus on identifying and overcoming barriers to policy implementation. The ways in which developments in international energy markets affect the potential and scope of international environmental agreements are analysed, as are the impacts of different international environmental regimes on energy markets. Particular attention is paid on the opportunities and limitations of international institutions like the European Community, the United Nations, the multilateral development banks and GATT, in promoting international co-operation on energy and environmental issues. Strategies to overcome North/South conflicts over global environmental issues are examined, including issue linkages in international negotiations and North/South transfer of resources and technology. Another important area of sustainable production and consumption of energy in developing countries. Project titles are: 1) ''Leader'' and ''entrepreneur'' in international negotiations . A conceptual analysis. 2) Choosing climate policy. Decision theoretical premises. 3) Japan in the greenhouse responsibilities, policies and prospects for combating global warming. 4) Impacts on developing economies from changing trade regimes and growing international environmental concerns. 5) US energy policy in the greenhouse from the North slope forests to the Gulf Stream waters - this land was made for fossil fuels. 6) The climate policy of

  20. Innovations in climate policy: conclusions and new directions

    OpenAIRE

    Jordan, A.; Huitema, D.

    2014-01-01

    Academics and practitioners have responded to the gridlock in the international climate-change regime by more actively exploring the ability of individuals and/or groups of states to fill in the associated ‘governance gaps’ by engaging in policy innovation at the level of the nation state, including its regional and local emanations. Here, we draw together the findings of a collection that, for the first time, explores policy innovation at this level from three key perspectives: the source of...

  1. CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Glen P; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2008-03-01

    The flow of pollution through international trade flows has the ability to undermine environmental policies, particularly for global pollutants. In this article we determine the CO2 emissions embodied in international trade among 87 countries for the year 2001. We find that globally there are over 5.3 Gt of CO2 embodied in trade and that Annex B countries are net importers of CO2 emissions. Depending on country characteristics--such as size variables and geographic location--there are considerable variations in the embodied emissions. We argue that emissions embodied in trade may have a significant impact on participation in and effectiveness of global climate policies such as the Kyoto Protocol. We discuss several policy options to reduce the impact of trade in global climate policy. If countries take binding commitments as a part of a coalition, instead of as individual countries, then the impacts of trade can be substantially reduced. Adjusting emission inventories for trade gives a more consistent description of a country's environmental pressures and circumvents many trade related issues. It also gives opportunities to exploit trade as a means of mitigating emissions. Not least, a better understanding of the role that trade plays in a country's economic and environmental development will help design more effective and participatory climate policy post-Kyoto.

  2. Climatic architecture: Situation, principles, establishment of technical policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brejon, P.

    1994-01-01

    Climatic architecture, despite the efforts of its protagonists, remains nearly marginal. Nevertheless, environmental awareness is gaining ground, whether through concern for the depletion of natural resources, for global warming or for CO 2 emissions. It is only by establishing technical policies, making an effort in terms of training and research and distributing knowledge to all those in the business that the principles of climatic architecture will actually be applied in the field. Resources are available to make climatic architecture a fundamental concern in the design of environmentally friendly buildings. (author). 6 refs, 3 tabs

  3. Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels, van der Ine; Liu, C.; Battilani, P.

    2016-01-01

    Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their

  4. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Intelligence Agency CO2 carbon dioxide CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent EIA environmental impact assessment ENSO El Nino southern oscillation EPA...therefore exposed to long-term climatic impacts such 25 Central Intelligence Agency [CIA], “The World...economy as well as result in human suffering through increased rates of malnutrition , health problems, and mortality. The IPCC and the global

  5. Social and Policy Aspects of Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Forests of Belgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Živojinović

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Climate change has an impact on economic and natural systems as well as human health. These impacts are particularly visible in urbanised areas. Urban forests, which are one of the main natural features of the cities, are threatened by climate change. Generally, the role of forests in combating climate change is widely recognised and its significance is recognised also in urban areas. However, appropriate responses to climate change are usually lacking in their management. Climate change adaptation in relation to urban forests has been studied less often in comparison to climate change mitigation. Adaptive capacity of forests to climate change consists of adaptive capacity of forests as an ecological system and adaptive capacity of related socio-economic factors. The latter determines the capacity of a system and its actors to implement planned actions. This paper studies social and policy aspects of adaptation processes in urban forests of Belgrade. Materials and Methods: For the purpose of this study content analysis of urban forest policy and management documents was applied. Furthermore, in-depth interviews with urban forest managers and Q-methodology surveys with urban forestry stakeholders were conducted. Triangulation of these data is used to assure validity of results. Results: The results show weak integration of climate change issues in urban forest policy and management documents, as well as weak responses by managers. A comprehensive and systematic approach to this challenge does not exist. Three perspectives towards climate change are distinguished: (I ‘sceptics’ - do not perceive climate change as a challenge, (II ‘general-awareness perspective’ - aware of climate change issues but without concrete concerns toward urban forests, (III ‘management-oriented perspective’ - highlights specific challenges related to urban forest management. Awareness of urban forest managers and stakeholders towards

  6. Impacts of climate change in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresser, A.H.M.; Berk, M.M.; Van den Born, G.J.; Van Bree, L.; Van Gaalen, F.W.; Ligtvoet, W.; Van Minnen, J.G.; Witmer, M.C.H.

    2005-10-01

    The main conclusion of the study on the title subject is that the impacts of climatic change in the Netherlands are still limited. However, the impacts will be stronger in the next decades and will be even problematic at the end of this century. In this book an overview is given of probable changes in the climate for the Netherlands, danger for flooding in specific areas of the Netherlands, changes of the nature, impacts for agriculture, tourism and recreation, and industry and businesses, and risks for public health [nl

  7. Behavioral Economics and Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Gowdy

    2007-01-01

    The policy recommendations of most economists are based on the rational actor model of human behavior. Behavior is assumed to be self-regarding, preferences are assumed to be stable, and decisions are assumed to be unaffected by social context or frame of reference. The related fields of behavioral economics, game theory, and neuroscience have confirmed that human behavior is other regarding, and that people exhibit systematic patterns of decision-making that are "irrational" according to the...

  8. Energy security of supply under EU climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenenberg, H.; Wetzelaer, B.J.H.W.

    2006-12-01

    The implications of various climate policies for the security of supply in the EU-25 were investigated. The security of supply was quantified using the Supply/Demand (S/D) Index. This index aggregates quantitative information on a country's energy system into one single figure. It takes a value between 0 and 100, with higher values indicating a more secure energy system. The S/D Index was calculated for the year 2020 based on the information in a series of policy scenarios, including a baseline (S/D Index 50.7), an energy efficiency scenario (53.8), two renewable energy scenarios (52.6 and 53.3) and two scenarios with combined policies (55.9 and 55.6).The S/D Index proved a useful indicator for assessing the implications of climate policies for the security of supply. As climate policies become more stringent, CO2 index fall, and the S/D index increases. The magnitude of the changes in the two indices is not always similar however. Major falls in CO2 indices in the order of 20% for two scenarios with combined energy efficiency and renewable energy polices lead to less noteworthy improvements in the associated S/D indices. Nevertheless, this combination of policies leads to the greatest improvements in the security of supply

  9. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, Olivier [GERAD and Department of Management Sciences, HEC Montreal, Montreal (Qc) (Canada); Edwards, Neil R. [Earth and Environmental Sciences, CEPSAR, Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stocker, Thomas F. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. (author)

  10. Intra-party policy entrepreneurship and party goals. The case of political parties’ climate policy preferences in Ireland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Little, Conor

    2017-01-01

    This study contributes to the growing literature on the domestic politics of climate change by examining the climate policy preferences of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Labour Party over 20 years. Bringing the concept of ‘policy entrepreneurship’ into the study of intra-party politics, it uses...... who have engaged in policy entrepreneurship with the aim of strengthening their parties’ climate policy preferences. In instances where office-seeking incentives for climate policy have been strong, they have often contributed to changes in policy preferences, whether or not intra-party policy...... entrepreneurship has been present. Theoretically, the study argues that the concept of ‘policy entrepreneurship’ can be usefully borrowed from the public policy literature by researchers of party policy preferences and intra-party politics. Empirically, it adds to the small but growing body of research on climate...

  11. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: Computer simulation -climate impact research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-07-01

    Climate impact assessment is a new field of research which, owing to international and national efforts to understand and cope with the impending global climate changes on a global, regional and local level, has rapidly become a central field of research of the Federal Ministry of Research and Technology. In contrast to other countries, Germany had no research facilities and infrastructure that could be used. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was to provide the infrastructure basis for climate impact research in Germany. The Institute was founded by the BMFT and the Land of Brandenburg. (orig.) [de

  12. Economic and ethical arguments inglobal climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaergaard, Niels

    1998-01-01

    The debate about the reduction of CO 2 -emissions, as seen for example at the UN climate conference in Kyoto, includes a mixture of economic and ethical arguments. Joint implementation using the market mechanisms is viewed as being unethical because the rich countries are able to pay others to carry out their redutions. This debate is seen as a continuation of a very old discussion about the ethics of the market. The Nordic electricity market is used as an example to demonstrate that the use of tradeable permissions has well defined positive consequences. (au) 26 refs

  13. Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARINA ZANIN

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

  14. Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, Marina; Tessarolo, Geiziane; Machado, Nathália; Albernaz, Ana Luisa M

    2017-01-01

    In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

  15. White paper: China's policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-10-15

    The document contains the following sections: Foreword; I. Climate Change and China's Situation; II. Impact of Climate Change on China; III. Strategies and Objectives for Addressing Climate Change; IV. Policies and Actions to Decelerate Climate Change; V. Policies and Actions to Adapt to Climate Change; VI. Enhancing Public Awareness in Addressing Climate Change; VII. Enhancing International Cooperation on Climate Change; VIII. Institution and Mechanism Building for Coping with Climate Change; and Conclusion. Measures for control of greenhouse gas emissions include optimizing the energy consumption structure through developing renewable energy, boosting nuclear power plant construction and speeding up the development and utilization of coal-bed gas. The target by 2010 is to raise the proportion of renewable energy (including large-scale hydropower) in the primary energy supply by up to 10 percent, and the extraction of coal-bed gas up to 10 billion cu m. China will push forward the use of clean coal and develop efficient and clean power generating technology, such as large-scale combined cycle units and poly-generation, and promote technology for carbon dioxide sequestration. China has decided to place the emphasis of its research on technologies which include technologies for the clean and efficient exploitation and utilization of coal, petroleum and natural gas; technologies for manufacturing advanced equipment for coal- and nuclear-generated power; technologies for capturing, utilizing and storing carbon dioxide; and technologies that control greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture and how land is used.

  16. Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.; Koshida, G.; Tavares, D.

    1993-05-01

    A workshop was held to encourage awareness of the climate change impact issues and build collaboration among the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence basin (GLSLB) research, resource management, and policy-making community; to identify research opportunities to address the issues of water management, ecosystem health, human health, and land use and management; and to recommend directions and priority areas for future studies to develop an integrated climate impact assessment for the GLSLB. Presentations at the workshop were on topics including an overview of the GLSLB Project, the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand, and impacts on water quality, fisheries, wetlands, agriculture, shoreline management, and human health. Panel sessions were also convened to discuss information requirements that would assist in decision- and policy-making and to address the concept of integration. Working groups on water management, ecosystem health, land use and management, and human health were formed and made recommendations. A synthesis is presented of the reports from and recommendations of the four working groups as well as extended abstracts of the plenary presentations. A separate abstract has been prepared for one of the presentations from this workshop

  17. Local authorities in the context of energy and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, Gabriele; Cioccolanti, Luca; Polonara, Fabio; Brandoni, Caterina

    2012-01-01

    Several measures to boost the energy system towards a low-carbon future can be planned and implemented by local authorities, such as energy-saving initiatives in public buildings and lighting, information campaigns, and renewable energy pilot projects. This work analyzes the public administration's role in energy and climate policies by assessing carbon-lowering measures for properties and services managed directly by local governments in central Italy. Both short- and long-term schemes were considered in the analysis of local authority energy strategies. The MARKAL-TIMES energy model was applied to long-term energy planning to assess the effect of low-carbon initiatives on public-sector energy consumption up to 2030. Two energy scenarios were built, i.e. a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario based on current or soon-to-be-adopted national policies, and an Exemplary Public Scenario (EPS) including some further virtuous local policies suggested by local authorities. Our results show that a 20% primary energy reduction can be achieved with respect to the baseline year by means of short-term energy policies (5-year time span), while a primary energy saving of about 30% can be reached with longer-term energy policies (25-year time span), even after taking the increase in energy demand into account. This work goes to show the part that local governments can play in energy policy and their contribution to the achievement of climate goals. - Highlights: ► Assessment of Local Administration (LA) role in energy and climate policy. ► Analysis of both short-term and long-term carbon lowering measures. ► Use of MARKAL-TIMES model generator for long-term energy analysis. ► 20% primary energy reduction can be reached with short-term energy policies. ► 30% primary energy reduction can be reached with longer-term energy policies.

  18. 77 FR 68776 - Economic Impact Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-16

    ... EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES Economic Impact Policy This notice is to inform the public..., Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Turkey, and United Kingdom. Interested parties may submit comments on this transaction by email to economic.impact...

  19. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.

    1995-11-01

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  20. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety...... experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production...... are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes...

  1. An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaye, J. A.

    2009-12-01

    The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could

  2. Climate Change Impacts at Department of Defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotamarthi, Rao [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Jiali [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zoebel, Zach [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Wuebbles, Don [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Hayhoe, Katharine [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States); Stein, Michael [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States); Changnon, David [Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL (United States)

    2017-06-16

    This project is aimed at providing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) with a comprehensive analysis of the uncertainty associated with generating climate projections at the regional scale that can be used by stakeholders and decision makers to quantify and plan for the impacts of future climate change at specific locations. The merits and limitations of commonly used downscaling models, ranging from simple to complex, are compared, and their appropriateness for application at installation scales is evaluated. Downscaled climate projections are generated at selected DoD installations using dynamic and statistical methods with an emphasis on generating probability distributions of climate variables and their associated uncertainties. The sites selection and selection of variables and parameters for downscaling was based on a comprehensive understanding of the current and projected roles that weather and climate play in operating, maintaining, and planning DoD facilities and installations.

  3. Global climate policy and local energy politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Mark Daniel; Michaelowa, Katharina

    2016-01-01

    Along with the large middle-income countries Brazil, China, and South Africa, India has been put under increasing pressure to shoulder parts of the mitigation burden and commit to national emission reduction targets. India, however, refers to its limited capacity and widespread poverty. Is India......-poor arguments advanced at the international level. Given their large number and the country's democratic system, the poor do have some weight in Indian politics. However, pro-poor policies end where they do not translate into greater vote shares. Moreover, India's international position ignores the existing...

  4. The application of the GWP concept in climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen LHJM; Fransen W; LLO; KNMI

    1997-01-01

    Both the scientific aspects of the Global Warming Potential concept (GWP) and its use in climate policy are analysed and discussed in this document. GWPs are indexed numbers to allow assessment of the relative contribution of emissions of long-living greenhouse gases to the enhancement of the

  5. Directed technical change and differentiation of climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto, V.M.; Löschel, A.; Reilly, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward looking model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find our most cost

  6. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  7. Innovations in climate policy: conclusions and new directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jordan, A.; Huitema, D.

    2014-01-01

    Academics and practitioners have responded to the gridlock in the international climate-change regime by more actively exploring the ability of individuals and/or groups of states to fill in the associated ‘governance gaps’ by engaging in policy innovation at the level of the nation state, including

  8. Integrating development and climate policies: National and international benefits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, M.; Metz, B.; Verhagen, J.

    2008-01-01

    What lessons for policy makers at national and international level can be drawn from the growing experiences of reconciling development and climate change? The key to achieving this is to approach the problem from the development perspective, since that is where in most countries the priority lies.

  9. Speaking truth to power revisited: science, policy and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bray, D. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Magdeburg (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserforschung; Krueck, C. [VDI-Technologiezentrum Physikalische Technologien, Duesseldorf (Germany). Abt. Zukuenftige Technologien

    2000-07-01

    The issue of climate change from the perspectives of climate change scientists and climate policy makers is discussed using results from two survey questionnaires. Emphasis is given to the German context. Included is the self assessment of the state of the art of the climate sciences and the importance assigned to different sources of information by policy makers. Conclusions indicate that policy makers rely on a number of sources other than the direct results of science, and have assigned a greater sense of urgency to the issue of climate change than have scientists. (orig.) [German] Auf Grundlage der Ergebnisse zweier Fragebogenaktionen wird diskutiert, wie sich die Problematik von Klimaveraenderungen aus der Perspektive von Klimaforschern und aus der Perspektive von mit Klimapolitik befassten Entscheidungstraegern darstellt. Die Betonung liegt auf den Verhaeltnissen in Deutschland. Eingeschlossen ist eine Einschaetzung des aktuellen Standes der Klimaforschung durch die Wissenschaftler selbst sowie der Bedeutung, welche von politischen Entscheidungstraegern verschiedenen Informationsquellen beigemessen wird. Es zeigt sich, dass sich politische Entscheidungstraeger auf zahlreiche Informationsquellen verlassen, die nur indirekt die Resultate der Klimaforschung wiedergeben und, dass dieser Personenkreis das Problem der Klimaveraenderungen als draengender ansieht als die Wissenschaftler selbst. (orig.)

  10. An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, Johannes; Hers, Sebastiaan; Van der Zwaan, Bob

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO 2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (author)

  11. On the efficiency of climate policies international coordination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalil, Helioui

    2006-01-01

    This article analyses the economic efficiency of climate policies international coordination acknowledging long term perspectives and political constraints. It questions the economic and political viability of emission trading with respect to market power and dynamic distortions. The latter proves more worrying. While one may reasonably expect national positions being decentralized, the Climate Convention cannot commit on long term emission objectives. As a consequence, there is room for strategic behaviour by governments. Structural public programs, crucial to curb long term emissions, are likely to be scaled down because governments expect post-2012 quotas to be revised according to observed trends. This might jeopardize the climate action and further weaken the political consensus it requires. Are carbon taxes a better policy option? It might be the case provided the tax is levied at the international level, but this option faces political obstacles. A hybrid scheme should realize a good compromise between economic efficiency and political acceptability. (author)

  12. Unilateral or Reciprocal Climate Policy? Experimental Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Bernauer

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The traditional political economy account of global climate change governance directs our attention to fundamental collective action problems associated with global public goods provision, resulting from positive or negative externalities as well as freeriding. The governance architecture of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol uses the traditional approaches of international diplomacy for addressing such challenges: legally binding commitments based on principles of reciprocity and (fair cost/burden sharing via formalized carbon-budgeting. Yet, the 2015 Paris Agreement has essentially abandoned this approach, as it now operates on the basis of internationally coordinated and monitored unilateralism. On the presumption that public opinion matters for government policy, we examine how citizens view this shift in climate policy from reciprocity to unilateralism, after many years of exposure to strong reciprocity rhetoric by governments and stakeholders. To that end, we fielded a survey experiment in China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG emitter. The results show that there is, perhaps surprisingly, strong and robust public support for unilateral, non-reciprocal climate policy. To the extent China is interested in pushing ahead with ambitious and thus costly GHG reduction policies, our results suggest that China can leverage segments of public support in order to overcome domestic obstacles to GHG mitigation policies.

  13. City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Tuomisto, Jouni; Jantunen, Matti; Pärjälä, Erkki; Sab