Constructing a framework for risk analyses of climate change effects on the water budget of differently sloped vineyards with a numeric simulation using the Monte Carlo method coupled to a water balance model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmann, Marco; Lux, Robert; Schultz, Hans R

2014-01-01

Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively, green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over 2 years. The results showed good agreement of modeled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity (SWC) and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in SWC. The improved model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes.

Climate Prediction for Brazil's Nordeste: Performance of Empirical and Numerical Modeling Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Moura, Antonio Divino; Hastenrath, Stefan

2004-07-01

Comparisons of performance of climate forecast methods require consistency in the predictand and a long common reference period. For Brazil's Nordeste, empirical methods developed at the University of Wisconsin use preseason (October January) rainfall and January indices of the fields of meridional wind component and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific as input to stepwise multiple regression and neural networking. These are used to predict the March June rainfall at a network of 27 stations. An experiment at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, with a numerical model (ECHAM4.5) used global SST information through February to predict the March June rainfall at three grid points in the Nordeste. The predictands for the empirical and numerical model forecasts are correlated at +0.96, and the period common to the independent portion of record of the empirical prediction and the numerical modeling is 1968 99. Over this period, predicted versus observed rainfall are evaluated in terms of correlation, root-mean-square error, absolute error, and bias. Performance is high for both approaches. Numerical modeling produces a correlation of +0.68, moderate errors, and strong negative bias. For the empirical methods, errors and bias are small, and correlations of +0.73 and +0.82 are reached between predicted and observed rainfall.

Comparison of Numerical Analyses with a Static Load Test of a Continuous Flight Auger Pile

Science.gov (United States)

Hoľko, Michal; Stacho, Jakub

2014-12-01

The article deals with numerical analyses of a Continuous Flight Auger (CFA) pile. The analyses include a comparison of calculated and measured load-settlement curves as well as a comparison of the load distribution over a pile's length. The numerical analyses were executed using two types of software, i.e., Ansys and Plaxis, which are based on FEM calculations. Both types of software are different from each other in the way they create numerical models, model the interface between the pile and soil, and use constitutive material models. The analyses have been prepared in the form of a parametric study, where the method of modelling the interface and the material models of the soil are compared and analysed. Our analyses show that both types of software permit the modelling of pile foundations. The Plaxis software uses advanced material models as well as the modelling of the impact of groundwater or overconsolidation. The load-settlement curve calculated using Plaxis is equal to the results of a static load test with a more than 95 % degree of accuracy. In comparison, the load-settlement curve calculated using Ansys allows for the obtaining of only an approximate estimate, but the software allows for the common modelling of large structure systems together with a foundation system.

Climate and Electricity Annual 2011 - Data and Analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-05-27

Electricity use is growing worldwide, providing a range of energy services: lighting, heating and cooling, specific industrial uses, entertainment, information technologies, and mobility. Because its generation remains largely based on fossil fuels, electricity is also the largest and the fastest-growing source of energy-related CO2 emissions, the primary cause of human-induced climate change. Forecasts from the IEA and others show that 'decarbonising' electricity and enhancing end-use efficiency can make major contributions to the fight against climate change. Global and regional trends on electricity supply and demand indicate the magnitude of the decarbonisation challenge ahead. As climate concerns become an essential component of energy policy-making, the generation and use of electricity will be subject to increasingly strong policy actions by governments to reduce their associated CO2 emissions. Despite these actions, and despite very rapid growth in renewable energy generation, significant technology and policy challenges remain if this unprecedented essential transition is to be achieved. This publication provides an authoritative resource on progress to date in this area, with statistics related to CO2 and the electricity sector across ten regions of the world. It also presents topical analyses on meeting the challenge of rapidly curbing CO2 emissions from electricity, from both a policy and technology perspective.

Low-cost phase change material as an energy storage medium in building envelopes: Experimental and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biswas, Kaushik; Abhari, Ramin

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Testing of a low-cost bio-PCM in an exterior wall under varying weather conditions. • Numerical model validation and annual simulations of PCM-enhanced cellulose insulation. • Reduced wall-generated cooling electricity consumption due to the application of PCM. • PCM performance was sensitive to its location and distribution within the wall. - Abstract: A promising approach to increasing the energy efficiency of buildings is the implementation of a phase change material (PCM) in the building envelope. Numerous studies over the last two decades have reported the energy saving potential of PCMs in building envelopes, but their wide application has been inhibited, in part, by their high cost. This article describes a novel PCM made of naturally occurring fatty acids/glycerides trapped into high density polyethylene (HDPE) pellets and its performance in a building envelope application. The PCM–HDPE pellets were mixed with cellulose insulation and then added to an exterior wall of a test building in a hot and humid climate, and tested over a period of several months. To demonstrate the efficacy of the PCM-enhanced cellulose insulation in reducing the building envelope heat gains and losses, a side-by-side comparison was performed with another wall section filled with cellulose-only insulation. Further, numerical modeling of the test wall was performed to determine the actual impact of the PCM–HDPE pellets on wall-generated heating and cooling loads and the associated electricity consumption. The model was first validated using experimental data and then used for annual simulations using typical meteorological year (TMY3) weather data. This article presents the experimental data and numerical analyses showing the energy-saving potential of the new PCM

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

2017-01-01

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Numerical analyses of an aircraft crash on containment building

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sim, Jae Min; Kim, Seung Hyun; Chang, Yoon Suk [Kyunghee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The containment building is responsible to isolate and protect internal devices against external conditions like earthquake, hurricane and impact loading. It has also to protect leakage of radioactivity, like LOCA (Loss Of Coolant Accident), when severe accidents occurred. Meanwhile, social awareness such as terrorism has been increased globally after international aircraft crashes at World Trade Center and Pentagon. In this paper, FE (Finite Element) analyses according to variation of crash locations and speeds were carried out to examine the aircraft crash impact on a domestic containment building. In this paper, numerical analyses of aircraft crash on NPP's containment building were performed taking into account different locations and aircraft speeds. (1) Amounts of concrete failure were dependent on the crash locations and the connector was the most delicate location comparing to the dome and wall part. (2) Maximum stress values generated at the liner plate and rebars did not exceed their UTS values.

Numerical analyses of an aircraft crash on containment building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sim, Jae Min; Kim, Seung Hyun; Chang, Yoon Suk

2016-01-01

The containment building is responsible to isolate and protect internal devices against external conditions like earthquake, hurricane and impact loading. It has also to protect leakage of radioactivity, like LOCA (Loss Of Coolant Accident), when severe accidents occurred. Meanwhile, social awareness such as terrorism has been increased globally after international aircraft crashes at World Trade Center and Pentagon. In this paper, FE (Finite Element) analyses according to variation of crash locations and speeds were carried out to examine the aircraft crash impact on a domestic containment building. In this paper, numerical analyses of aircraft crash on NPP's containment building were performed taking into account different locations and aircraft speeds. (1) Amounts of concrete failure were dependent on the crash locations and the connector was the most delicate location comparing to the dome and wall part. (2) Maximum stress values generated at the liner plate and rebars did not exceed their UTS values

Separation of spatial-temporal patterns ('climatic modes') by combined analysis of really measured and generated numerically vector time series

Science.gov (United States)

Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Volodin, E. M.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.

2013-12-01

The new method of decomposition of the Earth's climate system into well separated spatial-temporal patterns ('climatic modes') is discussed. The method is based on: (i) generalization of the MSSA (Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis) [1] for expanding vector (space-distributed) time series in basis of spatial-temporal empirical orthogonal functions (STEOF), which makes allowance delayed correlations of the processes recorded in spatially separated points; (ii) expanding both real SST data, and longer by several times SST data generated numerically, in STEOF basis; (iii) use of the numerically produced STEOF basis for exclusion of 'too slow' (and thus not represented correctly) processes from real data. The application of the method allows by means of vector time series generated numerically by the INM RAS Coupled Climate Model [2] to separate from real SST anomalies data [3] two climatic modes possessing by noticeably different time scales: 3-5 and 9-11 years. Relations of separated modes to ENSO and PDO are investigated. Possible applications of spatial-temporal climatic patterns concept to prognosis of climate system evolution is discussed. 1. Ghil, M., R. M. Allen, M. D. Dettinger, K. Ide, D. Kondrashov, et al. (2002) "Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series", Rev. Geophys. 40(1), 3.1-3.41. 2. http://83.149.207.89/GCM_DATA_PLOTTING/GCM_INM_DATA_XY_en.htm 3. http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.KAPLAN/.EXTENDED/.v2/.ssta/

Analysing the nexus of sustainable development and climate change. An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munasinghe, M.

2003-01-01

This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity being jointly overseen by the (Environment Policy Committee) Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the DAC (Development Assistance Committee) Working Party on Development Co-operation and Environment (WPENV). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. This paper sketches out a broad framework to address the nexus of sustainable development and climate change. It also draws out some implications for the preparation of future case studies aimed at exploring the dynamics of climate change vulnerability and adaptation - especially when one goes beyond simple win-win outcomes, and confronts difficult trade-off situations among conflicting objectives. Section 2 introduces the concept of sustainable development; Section 3 links that concept to climate change. In section 4, tools and methods of integrating and analysing the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of this nexus are briefly presented. These ideas are illustrated in section 5, by applying them to specific examples involving climate-related problems across the full range of spatial scales - at the global, national-economy-wide, sub-national-sectoral, and local-project levels. Section 6 contains some concluding thoughts and a discussion of implications for case studies

Analyses of phase change materials’ efficiency in warm-summer humid continental climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Ratnieks, J.; Gendelis, S.; Jakovics, A.; Bajare, D.

2017-10-01

The usage of phase change materials (PCMs) is a way to store excess energy produced during the hot time of the day and release it during the night thereby reducing the overheating problem. While, in Latvian climate conditions overheating is not a big issue in traditional buildings since it happens only a couple of weeks per year air conditioners must still be installed to maintain thermal comfort. The need for cooling in recently built office buildings with large window area can increase significantly. It is therefore of great interest if the thermal comfort conditions can be maintained by PCMs alone or with reduced maximum power of installed cooling systems. Our initial studies show that if the test building is well-insulated (necessary to reduce heat loss in winter), phase change material is not able to solidify fast enough during the relatively short night time. To further investigate the problem various experimental setups with two different phase change materials were installed in test buildings. Experimental results are compared with numerical modelling made in software COMSOL Multiphysics. The effectiveness of PCM using different situations is widely analysed.

Final Progress Report: Collaborative Research: Decadal-to-Centennial Climate & Climate Change Studies with Enhanced Variable and Uniform Resolution GCMs Using Advanced Numerical Techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fox-Rabinovitz, M; Cote, J

2009-06-05

The joint U.S-Canadian project has been devoted to: (a) decadal climate studies using developed state-of-the-art GCMs (General Circulation Models) with enhanced variable and uniform resolution; (b) development and implementation of advanced numerical techniques; (c) research in parallel computing and associated numerical methods; (d) atmospheric chemistry experiments related to climate issues; (e) validation of regional climate modeling strategies for nested- and stretched-grid models. The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GCMs produce accurate and cost-efficient regional climate simulations with mesoscale resolution. The advantage of the stretched grid approach is that it allows us to preserve the high quality of both global and regional circulations while providing consistent interactions between global and regional scales and phenomena. The major accomplishment for the project has been the successful international SGMIP-1 and SGMIP-2 (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project, phase-1 and phase-2) based on this research developments and activities. The SGMIP provides unique high-resolution regional and global multi-model ensembles beneficial for regional climate modeling and broader modeling community. The U.S SGMIP simulations have been produced using SciDAC ORNL supercomputers. Collaborations with other international participants M. Deque (Meteo-France) and J. McGregor (CSIRO, Australia) and their centers and groups have been beneficial for the strong joint effort, especially for the SGMIP activities. The WMO/WCRP/WGNE endorsed the SGMIP activities in 2004-2008. This project reflects a trend in the modeling and broader communities to move towards regional and sub-regional assessments and applications important for the U.S. and Canadian public, business and policy decision makers, as well as for international collaborations on regional, and especially climate related issues.

Numerical Modeling of Climatic Change from the Terminus Record of Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruss, Phillip Donald

Over the last 100 years, the glaciers and lakes of East Africa have undergone dramatic change in response to climatic forcing. However, the available conventional meterological series have not proven sufficient to explain these environmental events. The secular climatic change at Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya (0(DEGREES)9'S, 37(DEGREES)19'E), is reconstructed from its terminus record documented since 1893. The short-time-step numerical model developed for this study consists of climate and ice dynamics segments. The climate segment directly computes the effect on the net balance of change in the four forcings: precipitation, albedo, cloudiness, and temperature. The flow segment calculates the dynamic glacier response to net balance variation. Climatic change occurs over a wide range of time scales. Each glacier responds in a unique fashion to this spectrum of climatic forcings. The response of the Lewis terminus extent to repeated sinusoidal fluctuation in the net balance is calculated. The net balance versus elevation profile is separately translated along the orthogonal balance and elevation axes. Net balance amplitudes of 0.1 to 0.5 m a('-1) of ice and 10 to 50 m elevation, respectively, and periods ranging from 20 to 1000 years are covered. Consideration of the Lewis response is perspective with similar results for Hintereisferner, Storglaciaren, and Berendon and South Cascade Glaciers identifies general characteristics of the time lag and amplitude of the terminus response. The magnitude and timing of the change in only one of the climatic forcings precipitation, albedo, cloudiness, or temperature necessary to produce the retreat of the Lewis terminus from its late 19th century maximum are computed. Equivalent changes for two scenarios of simultaneous variation, namely precipitation/albedo/cloudiness and temperature/albedo, are also estimated. These numerical results are interpreted in the light of long-term lake level, river flow, and instrumental information. A

Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

2012-04-01

Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

Masonry structures built with fictile tubules: Experimental and numerical analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Tiberti, Simone; Scuro, Carmelo; Codispoti, Rosamaria; Olivito, Renato S.; Milani, Gabriele

2017-11-01

Masonry structures with fictile tubules were a distinctive building technique of the Mediterranean area. This technique dates back to Roman and early Christian times, used to build vaulted constructions and domes with various geometrical forms by virtue of their modular structure. In the present work, experimental tests were carried out to identify the mechanical properties of hollow clay fictile tubules and a possible reinforcing technique for existing buildings employing such elements. The experimental results were then validated by devising and analyzing numerical models with the FE software Abaqus, also aimed at investigating the structural behavior of an arch via linear and nonlinear static analyses.

Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

1994-01-01

An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

Analysing bifurcations encountered in numerical modelling of current transfer to cathodes of dc glow and arc discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Almeida, P G C; Benilov, M S; Cunha, M D; Faria, M J

2009-01-01

Bifurcations and/or their consequences are frequently encountered in numerical modelling of current transfer to cathodes of gas discharges, also in apparently simple situations, and a failure to recognize and properly analyse a bifurcation may create difficulties in the modelling and hinder the understanding of numerical results and the underlying physics. This work is concerned with analysis of bifurcations that have been encountered in the modelling of steady-state current transfer to cathodes of glow and arc discharges. All basic types of steady-state bifurcations (fold, transcritical, pitchfork) have been identified and analysed. The analysis provides explanations to many results obtained in numerical modelling. In particular, it is shown that dramatic changes in patterns of current transfer to cathodes of both glow and arc discharges, described by numerical modelling, occur through perturbed transcritical bifurcations of first- and second-order contact. The analysis elucidates the reason why the mode of glow discharge associated with the falling section of the current-voltage characteristic in the solution of von Engel and Steenbeck seems not to appear in 2D numerical modelling and the subnormal and normal modes appear instead. A similar effect has been identified in numerical modelling of arc cathodes and explained.

Numerical analyses of flashing jet structure and droplet size characteristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duan Riqiang; Jiang Shengyao; Koshizuka, Seiichi; Oka, Yoshiaki; Yamaguchi, Akira; Takata, Takashi

2006-01-01

In this paper, flashing jets are numerically simulated using the MPS method. The boiling mode for flashing is identified as surface boiling mode, based on the postulation of jets from a short nozzle under high depressurization. The Homogeneous Non-equilibrium Relaxation Model (HRM) is used for calculating the evaporation rate of flashing. The numerical simulation results show that flashing jets comprise an inner intact core which is surrounded by two-phase droplet flow. The effect of degree of superheat on the jet topological geometry is investigated. With increasing degree of superheat, the topological shape of flashing jets evolves from cylindrical core for low degree of superheat to cone-shaped core for high degree of superheat, and meanwhile the extinction length comes to decrease and tends asymptotically constant as the injection temperature approaches the saturation temperature corresponding to the injection pressure. The analyses of the droplet size distribution engendered from primary breakup of flashing jets show that: two peaks exist for droplet size distribution at lower degree of superheat; however, merely one peak for higher degree of superheat. From droplet size distribution, it is revealed that the primary breakup mechanism of flashing jets can be attributed to dominant mechanical breakup mode plus enhancement via surface evaporation. (author)

Atlas : A library for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Deconinck, Willem; Bauer, Peter; Diamantakis, Michail; Hamrud, Mats; Kühnlein, Christian; Maciel, Pedro; Mengaldo, Gianmarco; Quintino, Tiago; Raoult, Baudouin; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.; Wedi, Nils P.

2017-11-01

The algorithms underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models that have been developed in the past few decades face an increasing challenge caused by the paradigm shift imposed by hardware vendors towards more energy-efficient devices. In order to provide a sustainable path to exascale High Performance Computing (HPC), applications become increasingly restricted by energy consumption. As a result, the emerging diverse and complex hardware solutions have a large impact on the programming models traditionally used in NWP software, triggering a rethink of design choices for future massively parallel software frameworks. In this paper, we present Atlas, a new software library that is currently being developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with the scope of handling data structures required for NWP applications in a flexible and massively parallel way. Atlas provides a versatile framework for the future development of efficient NWP and climate applications on emerging HPC architectures. The applications range from full Earth system models, to specific tools required for post-processing weather forecast products. The Atlas library thus constitutes a step towards affordable exascale high-performance simulations by providing the necessary abstractions that facilitate the application in heterogeneous HPC environments by promoting the co-design of NWP algorithms with the underlying hardware.

Experimental and numerical analyses of magnesium alloy hot workability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Abbassi

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Due to their hexagonal crystal structure, magnesium alloys have relatively low workability at room temperature. In this study, the hot workability behavior of cast-extruded AZ31B magnesium alloy is studied through hot compression testing, numerical modeling and microstructural analyses. Hot deformation tests are performed at temperatures of 250 °C to 400 °C under strain rates of 0.01 to 1.0 s−1. Transmission electron microscopy is used to reveal the presence of dynamic recrystallization (DRX, dynamic recovery (DRY, cracks and shear bands. To predict plastic instabilities during hot compression tests of AZ31B magnesium alloy, the authors use Johnson–Cook damage model in a 3D finite element simulation. The optimal hot workability of magnesium alloy is found at a temperature (T of 400 °C and strain rate (ε˙ of 0.01 s−1. Stability is found at a lower strain rate, and instability is found at a higher strain rate.

The Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses - ICLEA

Science.gov (United States)

Schwab, Markus; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin; Blume, Theresa; Iclea Team

2014-05-01

The GFZ, Greifswald University and the Brandenburg University of Technology together with their partner the Polish Academy of Sciences strive for focusing their research capacities and expertise in a Helmholtz Virtual Institute for Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses (ICLEA). The Coordination Team is based at the GFZ in Potsdam and consists of a permanent scientific manager and administrative personnel. ICLEA offers young researchers an interdisciplinary and structured education and promote their early independence through coaching and mentoring. Postdoctoral rotation positions at the ICLEA partner institutions ensure mobility of young researchers and promote dissemination of information and expertise between disciplines. Training, Research and Analytical workshops between research partners of the ICLEA virtual institute are another important measure to qualify young researchers. The long-term mission of the Virtual Institute is to provide a substantiated data basis for sustained environmental maintenance based on a profound process understanding at all relevant time scales. Aim is to explore processes of climate and landscape evolution in an historical cultural landscape extending from northeastern Germany into northwestern Poland. The northern-central European lowlands will be facilitated as a natural laboratory providing an ideal case for utilizing a systematic and holistic approach. In ICLEA five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects. WP 1 focus on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analysing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 focus on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last centuries up to few millennia, varved lake sediments

Mammoth ecosystem: Climatic areal, animal's density and cause of extinctions

Science.gov (United States)

Zimov, S.; Zimov, N.; Zimova, G.; Chapin, S. F.

2008-12-01

During the last glaciations Mammoth Ecosystem (ME) occupied territory from present-day France to Canada and from the Arctic islands to China. This ecosystem played major role in global carbon cycle and human settling around the planet. Causes of extinction of this ecosystem are debatable. Analyses of hundreds of radiocarbon dates of ME animal fossil remains showed that warming and moistening of climate wasn't accompanied by animal extinction. On the opposite, on the north right after the warming rise of herbivore population was observed. Reconstruction of ME climatic areal showed that its climatic optimum lies within range of annual precipitation of 200-350 mm and average summer temperatures of +8-+12oC which corresponds with modern climate of Northern Siberia. Analyses of bones and skeletons concentrations in permafrost of Northern Siberia showed that animal density in ME was similar to African savannah. That was a high productive ecosystem that could sustain in wide variety of climates because numerous herbivores maintained there pastures themselves.

Hot forming of composite prepreg: Numerical analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Guzman-Maldonado, Eduardo; Hamila, Nahiène; Boisse, Philippe; El Azzouzi, Khalid; Tardif, Xavier; Moro, Tanguy; Chatel, Sylvain; Fideu, Paulin

2017-10-01

The work presented here is part of the "FORBANS" project about the Hot Drape Forming (HDF) process consisting of unidirectional prepregs laminates. To ensure a fine comprehension of this process a combination strategy between experiment and numerical analysis is adopted. This paper is focused on the numerical analysis using the finite element method (FEM) with a hyperelastic constitutive law. Each prepreg layer is modelled by shell elements. These elements consider the tension, in-plane shear and bending behaviour of the ply at different temperatures. The contact/friction during the forming process is taken into account using forward increment Lagrange multipliers.

Numerical Analyses of Subsoil-structure Interaction in Original Non-commercial Software based on FEM

Science.gov (United States)

Cajka, R.; Vaskova, J.; Vasek, J.

2018-04-01

For decades attention has been paid to interaction of foundation structures and subsoil and development of interaction models. Given that analytical solutions of subsoil-structure interaction could be deduced only for some simple shapes of load, analytical solutions are increasingly being replaced by numerical solutions (eg. FEM – Finite element method). Numerical analyses provides greater possibilities for taking into account the real factors involved in the subsoil-structure interaction and was also used in this article. This makes it possible to design the foundation structures more efficiently and still reliably and securely. Currently there are several software that, can deal with the interaction of foundations and subsoil. It has been demonstrated that non-commercial software called MKPINTER (created by Cajka) provides appropriately results close to actual measured values. In MKPINTER software stress-strain analysis of elastic half-space by means of Gauss numerical integration and Jacobean of transformation is done. Input data for numerical analysis were observed by experimental loading test of concrete slab. The loading was performed using unique experimental equipment which was constructed in the area Faculty of Civil Engineering, VŠB-TU Ostrava. The purpose of this paper is to compare resulting deformation of the slab with values observed during experimental loading test.

Numerical analyses of a Couette-Taylor flow in the presence of a magnetic field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tagawa, T; Kaneda, M

2005-01-01

An axisymmetric Couette-Taylor flow of liquid metal in the presence of a magnetic field has been numerically studied. An inner cylinder of a coaxial container is rotating at a constant angular velocity whereas the outer cylindrical wall is at rest. An axial or a toroidal magnetic field is applied to this configuration to investigate the influence of such magnetic fields on the liquid metal Couette-Taylor flow. The toroidal magnetic field can be produced with a straight wire along the central axis in which electric current passes. The governing equations of mass conservation, momentum, Ohm's law and conservation of electric charge for an axisymmetric cylindrical coordinate system have been numerically solved with a finite difference method using the HSMAC algorithm. In the numerical analyses, since the Joule heating and the induced magnetic field are neglected, the system parameters are the Hartmann number and the Reynolds number. The numerical results reveal significant difference in the Couette-Taylor flow depending on whether the applied magnetic field is axial or toroidal as well as on the Hartmann and Reynolds numbers. The axial magnetic field damps out the secondary flow efficiently and velocity gradient in the direction of the magnetic field tends to diminish while the toroidal magnetic field does not have such an efficient damping

Experimental and numerical analyses of different extended surfaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diani, A; Mancin, S; Zilio, C; Rossetto, L

2012-01-01

Air is a cheap and safe fluid, widely used in electronic, aerospace and air conditioning applications. Because of its poor heat transfer properties, it always flows through extended surfaces, such as finned surfaces, to enhance the convective heat transfer. In this paper, experimental results are reviewed and numerical studies during air forced convection through extended surfaces are presented. The thermal and hydraulic behaviours of a reference trapezoidal finned surface, experimentally evaluated by present authors in an open-circuit wind tunnel, has been compared with numerical simulations carried out by using the commercial CFD software COMSOL Multiphysics. Once the model has been validated, numerical simulations have been extended to other rectangular finned configurations, in order to study the effects of the fin thickness, fin pitch and fin height on the thermo-hydraulic behaviour of the extended surfaces. Moreover, several pin fin surfaces have been simulated in the same range of operating conditions previously analyzed. Numerical results about heat transfer and pressure drop, for both plain finned and pin fin surfaces, have been compared with empirical correlations from the open literature, and more accurate equations have been developed, proposed, and validated.

Analysing the teleconnection systems affecting the climate of the Carpathian Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Kristóf, Erzsébet; Bartholy, Judit; Pongrácz, Rita

2017-04-01

Nowadays, the increase of the global average near-surface air temperature is unequivocal. Atmospheric low-frequency variabilities have substantial impacts on climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation. Therefore, assessing their effects is essential to improve global and regional climate model simulations for the 21st century. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the best-known atmospheric teleconnection patterns affecting the Carpathian Basin in Central Europe. Besides NAO, we aim to analyse other interannual-to-decadal teleconnection patterns, which might have significant impacts on the Carpathian Basin, namely, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the Mediterranean Oscillation, and the North-Sea Caspian Pattern. For this purpose primarily the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA-20C atmospheric reanalysis dataset and multivariate statistical methods are used. The indices of each teleconnection pattern and their correlations with temperature and precipitation will be calculated for the period of 1961-1990. On the basis of these data first the long range (i. e. seasonal and/or annual scale) forecast ability is evaluated. Then, we aim to calculate the same indices of the relevant teleconnection patterns for the historical and future simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and compare them against each other using statistical methods. Our ultimate goal is to examine all available CMIP5 models and evaluate their abilities to reproduce the selected teleconnection systems. Thus, climate predictions for the 21st century for the Carpathian Basin may be improved using the best-performing models among all CMIP5 model simulations.

Numerical analyses of the effect of SG-interlayer shear stiffness on the structural performance of reinforced glass beams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Louter, C.; Nielsen, Jens Henrik

2013-01-01

This paper focuses on the numerical modelling of SentryGlas-laminated reinforced glass beams. In these beams, which have been experimentally investigated in preceding research, a stainless steel reinforcement section is laminated at the inner recessed edge of a triple-layer glass beam by means...... of SentryGlas (SG) interlayer sheets. The current contribution numerically investigates the effect of the SG-interlayer shear stiffness on the overall structural response of the beams. This is done by means of a 3D finite element model in which the individual glass layers, the SG......-interlayers and the reinforcement are incorporated. In the model, the glass parts are allowed to crack, but all other parts are assumed linear elastic throughout the analyses. By changing the shear modulus of the SG-interlayer in multiple analyses, its contribution to the overall structural performance of the beams - especially...

Long-term wave climate at DanWEC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tetu, Amélie; Kofoed, Jens Peter

andthe current network of sensors are also presented. The numerical model used toobtain the 35 years hindcast data is introduced together with its validation againstbuoy-measured data and with the description of the dataset utilised for thelong-term climate definition. The recommendations from [IEC 62600...... buoys are continuously recorded and the data is analysed on a quarterly basis. The directional wave measuring buoys were first installed in March 2015. As two years is not sufficient for long-term wave climate definition, modelled data was more appropriate for the task. Thelong-term wave climate around...... Hanstholm is defined in the present report using the hindcast data from the MIKE 21 Spectral Wave model provided by DHI, one of the partners of the project. Before the actual wave climate definition, a description of the site includinglocation and bathymetry is included. The historical wave data of the area...

A numerical analysis of a composition-adjustable Kalina cycle power plant for power generation from low-temperature geothermal sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Enhua; Yu, Zhibin

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A composition-adjustable Kalina cycle is analysed and presented. • An air-cooled condenser is used and thermodynamic performance is analysed. • Composition adjustment can improve system performance significantly. - Abstract: The Kalina cycle is believed to be one of the most promising technologies for power generation from low temperature heat sources such as geothermal energy. So far, most Kalina cycle power plants are designed with a working fluid mixture having a fixed composition, and thus normally operate at a fixed condensing temperature. However, the ambient temperature (i.e., heat sink) varies over a large range as the season changes over a year, particularly in continental climates. Recently, a new concept, i.e., composition-adjustable Kalina cycle, was proposed to develop power plants that can match their condensing temperature with the changing ambient conditions, aiming at improving the cycle’s overall thermal efficiency. However, no detailed analysis of its implementation and the potential benefits under various climate conditions has been reported. For this reason, this paper carried out a comprehensive numerical research on its implementation and performance analysis under several different climate conditions. A mathematical model is firstly established to simulate the working principle of a composition-adjustable Kalina cycle, based on which a numerical program is then developed to analyse the cycle’s performance under various climate conditions. The developed numerical model is verified with some published data. The dynamic composition adjustment in response to the changing ambient temperature is simulated to evaluate its effect on the plant’s performance over a year. The results show that a composition-adjustable Kalina cycle could achieve higher annual-average thermal efficiency than a conventional one with a fixed mixture composition. However, such an improvement of thermal efficiency strongly depends on the heat source

Numerical and experimental analyses of different magnetic thermodynamic cycles with an active magnetic regenerator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plaznik, Uroš; Tušek, Jaka; Kitanovski, Andrej; Poredoš, Alojz

2013-01-01

We have analyzed the influence of different magnetic thermodynamic cycles on the performance of a magnetic cooling device with an active magnetic regenerator (AMR) based on the Brayton, Ericsson and Hybrid Brayton–Ericsson cycles. Initially, a numerical simulation was performed using a 1D, time-dependent, numerical model. Then a comparison was made with respect to the cooling power and the COP for different temperature spans. We showed that applying the Ericsson or the Hybrid Brayton–Ericsson cycle with an AMR, instead of the standard Brayton cycle, can increase the efficiency of the selected cooling device. Yet, in the case of the Ericsson cycle, the cooling power was decreased compared to the Hybrid and especially compared to the Brayton cycle. Next, an experimental analysis was carried out using a linear-type magnetic cooling device. Again, the Brayton, Ericsson and Hybrid Brayton–Ericsson cycles with an AMR were compared with respect to the cooling power and the COP for different temperature spans. The results of the numerical simulation were confirmed. The Hybrid Brayton–Ericsson cycle with an AMR showed the best performance if a no-load temperature span was considered as a criterion. -- Highlights: • New thermodynamic cycles with an active magnetic regenerator (AMR) are presented. • Three different thermodynamic cycles with an AMR were analyzed. • Numerical and experimental analyses were carried out. • The best overall performance was achieved with the Hybrid Brayton–Ericsson cycle. • With this cycle the temperature span of test device was increased by almost 10%

Recent Regional Climate State and Change - Derived through Downscaling Homogeneous Large-scale Components of Re-analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Von Storch, H.; Klehmet, K.; Geyer, B.; Li, D.; Schubert-Frisius, M.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

2015-12-01

Global re-analyses suffer from inhomogeneities, as they process data from networks under development. However, the large-scale component of such re-analyses is mostly homogeneous; additional observational data add in most cases to a better description of regional details and less so on large-scale states. Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complementing the large-scale state of the re-analyses with regional detail - wherever the condition of homogeneity of the large-scales is fulfilled. Technically this can be done by using a regional climate model, or a global climate model, which is constrained on the large scale by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional risks - in particular marine risks - was identified. While the data density in Europe is considerably better than in most other regions of the world, even here insufficient spatial and temporal coverage is limiting risk assessments. Therefore, downscaled data-sets are frequently used by off-shore industries. We have run this system also in regions with reduced or absent data coverage, such as the Lena catchment in Siberia, in the Yellow Sea/Bo Hai region in East Asia, in Namibia and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Also a global (large scale constrained) simulation has been. It turns out that spatially detailed reconstruction of the state and change of climate in the three to six decades is doable for any region of the world.The different data sets are archived and may freely by used for scientific purposes. Of course, before application, a careful analysis of the quality for the intended application is needed, as sometimes unexpected changes in the quality of the description of large-scale driving states prevail.

Web processing service for climate impact and extreme weather event analyses. Flyingpigeon (Version 1.0)

Science.gov (United States)

Hempelmann, Nils; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Brockmann, Patrick; Falk, Wolfgang; Hoffmann, Jörg; Kindermann, Stephan; Koziol, Ben; Nangini, Cathy; Radanovics, Sabine; Vautard, Robert; Yiou, Pascal

2018-01-01

Analyses of extreme weather events and their impacts often requires big data processing of ensembles of climate model simulations. Researchers generally proceed by downloading the data from the providers and processing the data files ;at home; with their own analysis processes. However, the growing amount of available climate model and observation data makes this procedure quite awkward. In addition, data processing knowledge is kept local, instead of being consolidated into a common resource of reusable code. These drawbacks can be mitigated by using a web processing service (WPS). A WPS hosts services such as data analysis processes that are accessible over the web, and can be installed close to the data archives. We developed a WPS named 'flyingpigeon' that communicates over an HTTP network protocol based on standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), to be used by climatologists and impact modelers as a tool for analyzing large datasets remotely. Here, we present the current processes we developed in flyingpigeon relating to commonly-used processes (preprocessing steps, spatial subsets at continent, country or region level, and climate indices) as well as methods for specific climate data analysis (weather regimes, analogues of circulation, segetal flora distribution, and species distribution models). We also developed a novel, browser-based interactive data visualization for circulation analogues, illustrating the flexibility of WPS in designing custom outputs. Bringing the software to the data instead of transferring the data to the code is becoming increasingly necessary, especially with the upcoming massive climate datasets.

Climate analysis at local scale in the context of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quenol, H.

2013-01-01

Issues related to climate change increasingly concern the functioning of local scale geo-systems. A global change will necessarily affect local climates. In this context, the potential impacts of climate change lead to numerous inter rogations concerning adaptation. Despite numerous studies on the impact of projected global warming on different regions global atmospheric models (GCM) are not adapted to local scales and, as a result, impacts at local scales are still approximate. Although real progress in meso-scale atmospheric modeling was realized over the past years, no operative model is in use yet to simulate climate at local scales (ten or so meters). (author)

Global terrestrial water storage connectivity revealed using complex climate network analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, A. Y.; Chen, J.; Donges, J.

2015-07-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) exerts a key control in global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Although certain causal relationship exists between precipitation and TWS, the latter quantity also reflects impacts of anthropogenic activities. Thus, quantification of the spatial patterns of TWS will not only help to understand feedbacks between climate dynamics and the hydrologic cycle, but also provide new insights and model calibration constraints for improving the current land surface models. This work is the first attempt to quantify the spatial connectivity of TWS using the complex network theory, which has received broad attention in the climate modeling community in recent years. Complex networks of TWS anomalies are built using two global TWS data sets, a remote sensing product that is obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, and a model-generated data set from the global land data assimilation system's NOAH model (GLDAS-NOAH). Both data sets have 1° × 1° grid resolutions and cover most global land areas except for permafrost regions. TWS networks are built by first quantifying pairwise correlation among all valid TWS anomaly time series, and then applying a cutoff threshold derived from the edge-density function to retain only the most important features in the network. Basinwise network connectivity maps are used to illuminate connectivity of individual river basins with other regions. The constructed network degree centrality maps show the TWS anomaly hotspots around the globe and the patterns are consistent with recent GRACE studies. Parallel analyses of networks constructed using the two data sets reveal that the GLDAS-NOAH model captures many of the spatial patterns shown by GRACE, although significant discrepancies exist in some regions. Thus, our results provide further measures for constraining the current land surface models, especially in data sparse regions.

Genome-wide signatures of flowering adaptation to climate temperature: Regional analyses in a highly diverse native range of Arabidopsis thaliana.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabas-Madrid, Daniel; Méndez-Vigo, Belén; Arteaga, Noelia; Marcer, Arnald; Pascual-Montano, Alberto; Weigel, Detlef; Xavier Picó, F; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos

2018-03-08

Current global change is fueling an interest to understand the genetic and molecular mechanisms of plant adaptation to climate. In particular, altered flowering time is a common strategy for escape from unfavourable climate temperature. In order to determine the genomic bases underlying flowering time adaptation to this climatic factor, we have systematically analysed a collection of 174 highly diverse Arabidopsis thaliana accessions from the Iberian Peninsula. Analyses of 1.88 million single nucleotide polymorphisms provide evidence for a spatially heterogeneous contribution of demographic and adaptive processes to geographic patterns of genetic variation. Mountains appear to be allele dispersal barriers, whereas the relationship between flowering time and temperature depended on the precise temperature range. Environmental genome-wide associations supported an overall genome adaptation to temperature, with 9.4% of the genes showing significant associations. Furthermore, phenotypic genome-wide associations provided a catalogue of candidate genes underlying flowering time variation. Finally, comparison of environmental and phenotypic genome-wide associations identified known (Twin Sister of FT, FRIGIDA-like 1, and Casein Kinase II Beta chain 1) and new (Epithiospecifer Modifier 1 and Voltage-Dependent Anion Channel 5) genes as candidates for adaptation to climate temperature by altered flowering time. Thus, this regional collection provides an excellent resource to address the spatial complexity of climate adaptation in annual plants. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Numerical investigation of the energy saving potential of a semi-transparent photovoltaic double-skin facade in a cool-summer Mediterranean climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, Jinqing; Curcija, Dragan C.; Lu, Lin; Selkowitz, Stephen E.; Yang, Hongxing; Zhang, Weilong

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A comprehensive simulation model has been developed to predict the overall energy performance of PV-DSF. • Sensitivity analyses of air gap depths were conducted and the optimal air gap depth was identified. • The overall energy performance and energy saving potential of the PV-DSF was evaluated. • A comparative study was conducted between the PV-DSF and other commonly used window technologies. - Abstract: This paper presents the annual overall energy performance and energy-saving potential of a ventilated photovoltaic double-skin facade (PV-DSF) in a cool-summer Mediterranean climate zone. A numerical simulation model based on EnergyPlus was utilized to simulate the PV-DSF overall energy performance, simultaneously taking into account thermal power and daylight. Based on numerical model, sensitivity analyses about air gap width and ventilation modes have been lead in Berkeley (California) with the aim to optimize unit’s structure design and operational strategy of PV-DSF. Via simulation, the overall energy performance including thermal, power and daylighting of the optimized PV-DSF was evaluated using the typical meteorological year (TMY) weather data. It was found that per unit area of the proposed PV-DSF was able to generate about 65 kW h electricity yearly. If high efficiency cadmium telluride (CdTe) semi-transparent PV modules are adopted, the annual energy output could be even doubled. The PV-DSF studied, also featured good thermal and daylighting performances. The PV-DSF can effectively block solar radiation while still providing considerable daylighting illuminance. Due simply to excellent overall energy performance, a PV-DSF at Berkeley can reduce net electricity use by about 50% compared with other commonly used glazing systems. Efficiency improvements of semi-transparent PV modules would further increase the energy saving potential of a PV-DSF and thus making this technology more promising.

The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Where Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillips, T J; Potter, G L; Williamson, D L; Cederwall, R T; Boyle, J S; Fiorino, M; Hnilo, J J; Olson, J G; Xie, S; Yio, J J

2003-11-21

To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands, in particular, that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provied that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be similarly tested. In order to further this method for evaluating and analyzing parameterizations in climate GCMs, the USDOE is funding a joint venture of its Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT). This article elaborates the scientific rationale for CAPT, discusses technical aspects of its methodology, and presents examples of its implementation in a representative climate GCM. Numerical weather prediction methods show promise for improving parameterizations in climate GCMs.

Numerical analyses of an ex-core fuel incident: Results of the OECD-IAEA Paks Fuel Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hozer, Z., E-mail: hozer@aeki.kfki.h [Hungarian Academy of Sciences KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute, H-1525 Budapest, P.O. Box 49 (Hungary); Aszodi, A. [BME NTI Budapest (Hungary); Barnak, M. [IVS, Trnava (Slovakia); Boros, I. [BME NTI Budapest (Hungary); Fogel, M. [VUJE, Trnava (Slovakia); Guillard, V. [IRSN, Cadarache (France); Gyori, Cs. [ITU, EU, Karlsruhe (Germany); Hegyi, G. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute, H-1525 Budapest, P.O. Box 49 (Hungary); Horvath, G.L. [VEIKI, Budapest (Hungary); Nagy, I. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute, H-1525 Budapest, P.O. Box 49 (Hungary); Junninen, P. [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Kobzar, V. [KI, Moscow (Russian Federation); Legradi, G. [BME NTI Budapest (Hungary); Molnar, A. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute, H-1525 Budapest, P.O. Box 49 (Hungary); Pietarinen, K. [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Perneczky, L. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute, H-1525 Budapest, P.O. Box 49 (Hungary); Makihara, Y. [ATMEA, Paris (France); Matejovic, P. [IVS, Trnava (Slovakia); Perez-Fero, E.; Slonszki, E. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute, H-1525 Budapest, P.O. Box 49 (Hungary)

2010-03-15

The OECD-IAEA Paks Fuel Project was developed to support the understanding of fuel behaviour in accident conditions on the basis of analyses of the Paks-2 incident. Numerical simulation of the most relevant aspects of the event and comparison of the calculation results with the available data from the incident was carried out between 2006 and 2007. A database was compiled to provide input for the code calculations. The activities covered the following three areas: (a) Thermal hydraulic calculations described the cooling conditions possibly established during the incident. (b) Simulation of fuel behaviour described the oxidation and degradation mechanisms of the fuel assemblies. (c) The release of fission products from the failed fuel rods was estimated and compared to available measured data. The applied used codes captured the most important events of the Paks-2 incident and the calculated results improved the understanding of the causes and mechanisms of fuel failure. The numerical analyses showed that the by-pass flow leading to insufficient cooling amounted to 75-90% of the inlet flow rate, the maximum temperature in the tank was between 1200 and 1400 deg. C, the degree of zirconium oxidation reached 4-12% and the mass of produced hydrogen was between 3 and 13 kg.

A round robin on numerical analyses for impact problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yagawa, G.; Ohtsubo, H.; Toi, Y.; Aizawa, T.; Ikushima, T.

1984-01-01

In this paper, two types of numerical tests are performed using several general- and special-purpose computer codes to understand dynamic behaviors of CASK for nuclear fuel shipping under the impact onto rigid floor due to the accidental fall from the height of 9 m. Discussed are the efficiency and the validity of direct time integration schemes and the effects of material and geometric nonlinearities and contact conditions on the numerical data. (orig.)

Analyses of internal tides generation and propagation over a Gaussian ridge in laboratory and numerical experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Dossmann, Yvan; Paci, Alexandre; Auclair, Francis; Floor, Jochem

2010-05-01

Internal tides are suggested to play a major role in the sustaining of the global oceanic circulation [1][5]. Although the exact origin of the energy conversions occurring in stratified fluids is questioned [2], it is clear that the diapycnal energy transfers provided by the energy cascade of internal gravity waves generated at tidal frequencies in regions of steep bathymetry is strongly linked to the general circulation energy balance. Therefore a precise quantification of the energy supply by internal waves is a crucial step in forecasting climate, since it improves our understanding of the underlying physical processes. We focus on an academic case of internal waves generated over an oceanic ridge in a linearly stratified fluid. In order to accurately quantify the diapycnal energy transfers caused by internal waves dynamics, we adopt a complementary approach involving both laboratory and numerical experiments. The laboratory experiments are conducted in a 4m long tank of the CNRM-GAME fluid mechanics laboratory, well known for its large stratified water flume (e.g. Knigge et al [3]). The horizontal oscillation at precisely controlled frequency of a Gaussian ridge immersed in a linearly stratified fluid generates internal gravity waves. The ridge of e-folding width 3.6 cm is 10 cm high and spans 50 cm. We use PIV and Synthetic Schlieren measurement techniques, to retrieve the high resolution velocity and stratification anomaly fields in the 2D vertical plane across the ridge. These experiments allow us to get access to real and exhaustive measurements of a wide range of internal waves regimes by varying the precisely controlled experimental parameters. To complete this work, we carry out some direct numerical simulations with the same parameters (forcing amplitude and frequency, initial stratification, boundary conditions) as the laboratory experiments. The model used is a non-hydrostatic version of the numerical model Symphonie [4]. Our purpose is not only to

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

2003-01-01

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

Numerical analysis of the efficiency of earth to air heat exchange systems in cold and hot-arid climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazlikhani, Faezeh; Goudarzi, Hossein; Solgi, Ebrahim

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A numerical model is developed to evaluate performance of earth to air heat exchanger. • The cooling/heating potential of earth to air heat exchanger is investigated in hot-dry and cold climates. • The more performance of earth to air heat exchanger in hot-dry climates compared to cold climates. • The high efficiency of earth to air heat exchanger for pre-heating in both hot-dry and cold climates. - Abstract: In order to examine and compare the efficiency of earth to air heat exchanger (EAHE) systems in hot-arid (Yazd) and cold (Hamadan) climates in Iran a steady state model was developed to evaluate the impact of various parameters including inlet air temperatures, pipe lengths and ground temperatures on the cooling and heating potential of EAHEs in both climates. The results demonstrated the ability of the system to not only improve the average temperature and decrease the temperature fluctuation of the outlet air temperature of EAHE, but also to trigger considerable energy saving. It was found that in both climates, the system is highly utilized for pre-heating, and its usage is unfeasible in certain periods throughout the year. In winter, EAHEs have the potential of increasing the air temperature in the range of 0.2–11.2 °C and 0.1–17.2 °C for Yazd and Hamadan, respectively. However, in summer, the system decreases the air temperature for the aforementioned cities in the range of 1.3–11.4 °C and 5.7–11.1 °C, respectively. The system ascertains to be more efficient in the hot-arid climate of Yazd, where it can be used on 294 days of the year, leading to 50.1–63.6% energy saving, when compared to the cold climate of Hamadan, where it can be used on 225 days of the year resulting in a reduction of energy consumption by 24.5–47.9%.

The Sahel Region of West Africa: Examples of Climate Analyses Motivated By Drought Management Needs

Science.gov (United States)

Ndiaye, O.; Ward, M. N.; Siebert, A. B.

2011-12-01

The Sahel is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world. This paper focuses on climate sources of drought, and some new analyses mostly driven by users needing climate information to help in drought management strategies. The Sahel region of West Africa is a transition zone between equatorial climate and vegetation to the south, and desert to the north. The climatology of the region is dominated by dry conditions for most of the year, with a single peak in rainfall during boreal summer. The seasonal rainfall total contains both interannual variability and substantial decadal to multidecadal variability (MDV). This brings climate analysis and drought management challenges across this range of timescales. The decline in rainfall from the wet decades of the 1950s and 60s to the dry decades of the 1970s and 80s has been well documented. In recent years, a moderate recovery has emerged, with seasonal totals in the period 1994-2010 significantly higher than the average rainfall 1970-1993. These MDV rainfall fluctuations have expression in large-scale sea-surface temperature fluctuations in all ocean basins, placing the changes in drought frequency within broader ocean-atmosphere climate fluctuation. We have evaluated the changing character of low seasonal rainfall total event frequencies in the Sahel region 1950-2010, highlighting the role of changes in the mean, variance and distribution shape of seasonal rainfall totals as the climate has shifted through the three observed phases. We also consider the extent to which updating climate normals in real-time can damp the bias in expected event frequency, an important issue for the feasibility of index insurance as a drought management tool in the presence of a changing climate. On the interannual timescale, a key factor long discussed for agriculture is the character of rainfall onset. An extended dry spell often occurs early in the rainy season before the crop is fully established, and this often leads to crop

Local seismic hazard assessment in explosive volcanic settings by 3D numerical analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Razzano, Roberto; Pagliaroli, Alessandro; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Gaudiosi, Iolanda; Avalle, Alessandra; Giallini, Silvia; Marcini, Marco; Polpetta, Federica; Simionato, Maurizio; Sirianni, Pietro; Sottili, Gianluca; Vignaroli, Gianluca; Bellanova, Jessica; Calamita, Giuseppe; Perrone, Angela; Piscitelli, Sabatino

2017-04-01

This work deals with the assessment of local seismic response in the explosive volcanic settings by reconstructing the subsoil model of the Stracciacappa maar (Sabatini Volcanic District, central Italy), whose pyroclastic succession records eruptive phases ended about 0.09 Ma ago. Heterogeneous characteristics of the Stracciacappa maar (stratification, structural setting, lithotypes, and thickness variation of depositional units) make it an ideal case history for understanding mechanisms and processes leading to modifications of amplitude-frequency-duration of seismic waves generated at earthquake sources and propagating through volcanic settings. New geological map and cross sections, constrained with recently acquired geotechnical and geophysical data, illustrate the complex geometric relationships among different depositional units forming the maar. A composite interfingering between internal lacustrine sediments and epiclastic debris, sourced from the rim, fills the crater floor; a 45 meters thick continuous coring borehole was drilled in the maar with sampling of undisturbed samples. Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys and 2D passive seismic arrays were also carried out for constraining the geological model and the velocity profile of the S-waves, respectively. Single station noise measurements were collected in order to define natural amplification frequencies. Finally, the nonlinear cyclic soil behaviour was investigated through simple shear tests on the undisturbed samples. The collected dataset was used to define the subsoil model for 3D finite difference site response numerical analyses by using FLAC 3D software (ITASCA). Moreover, 1D and 2D numerical analyses were carried out for comparison purposes. Two different scenarios were selected as input motions: a moderate magnitude (volcanic event) and a high magnitude (tectonic event). Both earthquake scenarios revealed significant ground motion amplification (up to 15 in terms of spectral acceleration

Numerical simulation of a heat pump assisted regenerative solar still with PCM heat storage for cold climates of Kazakhstan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shakir Yessen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A numerical model has been proposed in this work for predicting the energy performances of the heat pump assisted regenerative solar still with phase changing material heat storage under Kazakhstan climates. The numerical model is based on energy and mass balance. A new regenerative heat pump configuration with phase changing material heat storage is proposed to improve the performance. A comparison of results has been made between the conventional solar still and heat pump assisted regenerative solar still with phase changing material. The numerical simulation was performed for wide range of ambient temperatures between -30 and 30°C with wide range of solar intensities between 100 and 900 W/m2. The numerical simulation results showed that heat pump assisted regenerative solar still is more energy efficient and produce better yield when compared to the conventional simple solar still. The influences of solar intensity, ambient temperature, different phase changing materials, heat pump operating temperatures are discussed. The predicted values were found to be in good agreement with experimental results reported in literature.

Numerical and Experimental Analyses of Residual Stresses in

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Jan Langkjær; Hattel, Jesper; Lorentzen, Torben

1999-01-01

Butt-welding in one pass with SMAW of two 10mm mild steel plates is investigated. In order to predict the residual stress fields associated with the welding procedure, a finite element model in 3D has been developed in ABAQUS. This model applies a sequential thermal and mechanical numerical...... analysis. In order to evaluate and refine the model parameters for the thermal analysis, the numerical results from this analysis are compared with experimental measurements of the temperature. To evaluate the predicted stress/strain fields, the mechanical model has been validated experimentally. This has...... been done using the novel non-destructive technique of neutron diffraction.The thermal model takes into account the moving heat source in the V-shaped weld. The heat source is modelled by filler material being added continuously in connection with a body flux. In order to obtain a more realistic weld...

Model tests and numerical analyses on horizontal impedance functions of inclined single piles embedded in cohesionless soil

Science.gov (United States)

Goit, Chandra Shekhar; Saitoh, Masato

2013-03-01

Horizontal impedance functions of inclined single piles are measured experimentally for model soil-pile systems with both the effects of local soil nonlinearity and resonant characteristics. Two practical pile inclinations of 5° and 10° in addition to a vertical pile embedded in cohesionless soil and subjected to lateral harmonic pile head loadings for a wide range of frequencies are considered. Results obtained with low-to-high amplitude of lateral loadings on model soil-pile systems encased in a laminar shear box show that the local nonlinearities have a profound impact on the horizontal impedance functions of piles. Horizontal impedance functions of inclined piles are found to be smaller than the vertical pile and the values decrease as the angle of pile inclination increases. Distinct values of horizontal impedance functions are obtained for the `positive' and `negative' cycles of harmonic loadings, leading to asymmetric force-displacement relationships for the inclined piles. Validation of these experimental results is carried out through three-dimensional nonlinear finite element analyses, and the results from the numerical models are in good agreement with the experimental data. Sensitivity analyses conducted on the numerical models suggest that the consideration of local nonlinearity at the vicinity of the soil-pile interface influence the response of the soil-pile systems.

NUMERICAL MODELLING AS NON-DESTRUCTIVE METHOD FOR THE ANALYSES AND DIAGNOSIS OF STONE STRUCTURES: MODELS AND POSSIBILITIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataša Štambuk-Cvitanović

1999-12-01

Full Text Available Assuming the necessity of analysis, diagnosis and preservation of existing valuable stone masonry structures and ancient monuments in today European urban cores, numerical modelling become an efficient tool for the structural behaviour investigation. It should be supported by experimentally found input data and taken as a part of general combined approach, particularly non-destructive techniques on the structure/model within it. For the structures or their detail which may require more complex analyses three numerical models based upon finite elements technique are suggested: (1 standard linear model; (2 linear model with contact (interface elements; and (3 non-linear elasto-plastic and orthotropic model. The applicability of these models depend upon the accuracy of the approach or type of the problem, and will be presented on some characteristic samples.

Numerical simulation of geomorphic, climatic and anthropogenic drivers of soil distribution on semi-arid hillslopes

Science.gov (United States)

Willgoose, G. R.; Cohen, S.; Svoray, T.; Sela, S.; Hancock, G. R.

2010-12-01

Numerical models are an important tool for studying landscape processes as they allow us to isolate specific processes and drivers and test various physics and spatio-temporal scenarios. Here we use a distributed physically-based soil evolution model (mARM4D) to describe the drivers and processes controlling soil-landscape evolution on a field-site at the fringe between the Mediterranean and desert regions of Israel. This study is an initial effort in a larger project aimed at improving our understanding of the mechanisms and drivers that led to the extensive removal of soils from the loess covered hillslopes of this region. This specific region is interesting as it is located between the Mediterranean climate region in which widespread erosion from hillslopes was attributed to human activity during the Holocene and the arid region in which extensive removal of loess from hillslopes was shown to have been driven by climatic changes during the late-Pleistocene. First we study the sediment transport mechanism of the soil-landscape evolution processes in our study-site. We simulate soil-landscape evolution with only one sediment transport process (fluvial or diffusive) at a time. We find that diffusive sediment transport is likely the dominant process in this site as it resulted in soil distributions that better corresponds to current observations. We then simulate several realistic climatic/anthropogenic scenarios (based on the literature) in order to quantify the sensitivity of the soil-landscape evolution process to temporal fluctuations. We find that this site is relatively insensitive to short term (several thousands of years) sharp, changes. This suggests that climate, rather then human activity, was the main driver for the extensive removal of loess from the hillslopes.

Mid- to Late Holocene climate development in Central Asia as revealed from multi-proxy analyses of sediments from Lake Son Kol (Kyrgyzstan)

Science.gov (United States)

Lauterbach, Stefan; Dulski, Peter; Gleixner, Gerd; Hettler-Riedel, Sabine; Mingram, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Prasad, Sushma; Schwalb, Antje; Schwarz, Anja; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman

2013-04-01

A mid-Holocene shift from predominantly wet to significantly drier climate conditions, attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, Holocene climate development in the arid regions of mid-latitude Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is less well-constrained but supposed to have been influenced by a complex interaction between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. Hence, well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from Central Asia might provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, several sediment cores were recovered from alpine Lake Son Kol (41° 48'N, 75° 12'E, 3016 m a. s. l.) in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. A radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence of 154.5 cm length, covering approximately the last 6000 years, was investigated by using a multi-proxy approach, including sedimentological, (bio)geochemical, isotopic and micropalaeontological analyses. Preliminary proxy data indicate hydrologically variable but predominantly wet conditions until ca. 5100 cal. a BP, characterized by the deposition of finely laminated organic-carbonatic sediments. In contrast to monsoonal Asia, where a distinct trend towards drier conditions is observed since the mid-Holocene, the hydrologically variable interval at Lake Son Kol was apparently followed by an only short-term dry episode between ca. 5100 and 4200 cal. a BP. This is characterized by a higher δD of the C29 n-alkanes, probably reflecting increased evapotranspiration. Also pollen, diatom and ostracod data point

Evaluating Climate Causation of Conflict in Darfur Using Multi-temporal, Multi-resolution Satellite Image Datasets With Novel Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, I.; Wennbom, M.

2013-12-01

Climate change, population growth and changes in traditional lifestyles have led to instabilities in traditional demarcations between neighboring ethic and religious groups in the Sahel region. This has resulted in a number of conflicts as groups resort to arms to settle disputes. Such disputes often centre on or are justified by competition for resources. The conflict in Darfur has been controversially explained by resource scarcity resulting from climate change. Here we analyse established methods of using satellite imagery to assess vegetation health in Darfur. Multi-decadal time series of observations are available using low spatial resolution visible-near infrared imagery. Typically normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) analyses are produced to describe changes in vegetation ';greenness' or ';health'. Such approaches have been widely used to evaluate the long term development of vegetation in relation to climate variations across a wide range of environments from the Arctic to the Sahel. These datasets typically measure peak NDVI observed over a given interval and may introduce bias. It is furthermore unclear how the spatial organization of sparse vegetation may affect low resolution NDVI products. We develop and assess alternative measures of vegetation including descriptors of the growing season, wetness and resource availability. Expanding the range of parameters used in the analysis reduces our dependence on peak NDVI. Furthermore, these descriptors provide a better characterization of the growing season than the single NDVI measure. Using multi-sensor data we combine high temporal/moderate spatial resolution data with low temporal/high spatial resolution data to improve the spatial representativity of the observations and to provide improved spatial analysis of vegetation patterns. The approach places the high resolution observations in the NDVI context space using a longer time series of lower resolution imagery. The vegetation descriptors

Safety climate and firefighting: Focus group results.

Science.gov (United States)

DeJoy, David M; Smith, Todd D; Dyal, Mari-Amanda

2017-09-01

Firefighting is a hazardous occupation and there have been numerous calls for fundamental changes in how fire service organizations approach safety and balance safety with other operational priorities. These calls, however, have yielded little systematic research. As part of a larger project to develop and test a model of safety climate for the fire service, focus groups were used to identify potentially important dimensions of safety climate pertinent to firefighting. Analyses revealed nine overarching themes. Competency/professionalism, physical/psychological readiness, and that positive traits sometimes produce negative consequences were themes at the individual level; cohesion and supervisor leadership/support at the workgroup level; and politics/bureaucracy, resources, leadership, and hiring/promotion at the organizational level. A multi-level perspective seems appropriate for examining safety climate in firefighting. Safety climate in firefighting appears to be multi-dimensional and some dimensions prominent in the general safety climate literature also seem relevant to firefighting. These results also suggest that the fire service may be undergoing transitions encompassing mission, personnel, and its fundamental approach to safety and risk. These results help point the way to the development of safety climate measures specific to firefighting and to interventions for improving safety performance. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Elizabeth Chornesky,; David Ackerly,; Paul Beier,; Frank Davis,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Moyle, Peter B.; Moritz, Max A.; Scoonover, Mary; Byrd, Kristin B.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Heller, Nicole E.; Micheli, Elisabeth; Weiss, Stuart

2017-01-01

Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.

Phytoplankton and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Moisan, John R.

2009-01-01

Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

Final Progress Report submitted via the DOE Energy Link (E-Link) in June 2009 [Collaborative Research: Decadal-to-Centennial Climate & Climate Change Studies with Enhanced Variable and Uniform Resolution GCMs Using Advanced Numerical Techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S. [Univ. of Quebec (Canada); Cote, Jean [Univ. of Quebec (Canada)

2009-10-09

The joint U.S-Canadian project has been devoted to: (a) decadal climate studies using developed state-of-the-art GCMs (General Circulation Models) with enhanced variable and uniform resolution; (b) development and implementation of advanced numerical techniques; (c) research in parallel computing and associated numerical methods; (d) atmospheric chemistry experiments related to climate issues; (e) validation of regional climate modeling strategies for nested- and stretched-grid models. The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GCMs produce accurate and cost-efficient regional climate simulations with mesoscale resolution. The advantage of the stretched grid approach is that it allows us to preserve the high quality of both global and regional circulations while providing consistent interactions between global and regional scales and phenomena. The major accomplishment for the project has been the successful international SGMIP-1 and SGMIP-2 (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project, phase-1 and phase-2) based on this research developments and activities. The SGMIP provides unique high-resolution regional and global multi-model ensembles beneficial for regional climate modeling and broader modeling community. The U.S SGMIP simulations have been produced using SciDAC ORNL supercomputers. The results of the successful SGMIP multi-model ensemble simulations of the U.S. climate are available at the SGMIP web site (http://essic.umd.edu/~foxrab/sgmip.html) and through the link to the WMO/WCRP/WGNE web site: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/science/wgne. Collaborations with other international participants M. Deque (Meteo-France) and J. McGregor (CSIRO, Australia) and their centers and groups have been beneficial for the strong joint effort, especially for the SGMIP activities. The WMO/WCRP/WGNE endorsed the SGMIP activities in 2004-2008. This project reflects a trend in the modeling and broader communities to move towards regional and sub-regional assessments and

Revealing climate modes in steric sea levels: lessons learned from satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Pfeffer, J.; Tregoning, P.; Purcell, A. P.

2017-12-01

Due to increased greenhouse gases emissions, the oceans are accumulating heat. In response to the ocean circulation and atmospheric forcing, the heat is irregularly redistributed within the oceans, causing sea level to rise at variable rates in space and time. These rates of steric expansion are extremely difficult to assess because of the sparsity of in-situ hydrographic observations available within the course of the 20th century. We compare here three methods to reconstruct the steric sea levels over the past 13, 25 and 58 years based on satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses. The interannual to decadal variability of each dataset is explored with a model merging six climate indices representative of the natural variability of the ocean and climate system. Consistent regional patterns are identified for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in all datasets at all timescales. Despite the short time coverage (13 years), the combination of satellite geodetic data (altimetry and GRACE) also reveals significant steric responses to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Indian Dipole (IOD) and Indian ocean basinwide (IOBM) mode. The richer information content in the ocean reanalyses allows us to recover the regional fingerprints of the PDO, ENSO, NPGO, IOD and IOBM, but also of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) acting over longer time scales (40 to 60 years). Therefore, ocean reanalyses, coupled with climate mode analyses, constitute innovative and promising tools to investigate the mechanisms triggering the variability of sea level rise over the past decades.

Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Traore, B.; Corbeels, M.; Wijk, van M.T.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.

2013-01-01

In West Africa predictions of future changes in climate and especially rainfall are highly uncertain, and up to now no long-term analyses are available of the effects of climate on crop production. This study analyses long-term trends in climate variability at N'Tarla and Sikasso in southern Mali

Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Lade, Steven J.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Anderies, John M.; Beer, Christian; Cornell, Sarah E.; Gasser, Thomas; Norberg, Jon; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, Johan; Steffen, Will

2018-05-01

Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.

Uncertainty and Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Berliner, L. Mark

2003-01-01

Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

Development of ALARO-Climate regional climate model for a very high resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Skalak, Petr; Farda, Ales; Brozkova, Radmila; Masek, Jan

2014-05-01

ALARO-Climate is a new regional climate model (RCM) derived from the ALADIN LAM model family. It is based on the numerical weather prediction model ALARO and developed at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The model is expected to able to work in the so called "grey zone" physics (horizontal resolution of 4 - 7 km) and at the same time retain its ability to be operated in resolutions in between 20 and 50 km, which are typical for contemporary generation of regional climate models. Here we present the main results of the RCM ALARO-Climate model simulations in 25 and 6.25 km resolutions on the longer time-scale (1961-1990). The model was driven by the ERA-40 re-analyses and run on the integration domain of ~ 2500 x 2500 km size covering the central Europe. The simulated model climate was compared with the gridded observation of air temperature (mean, maximum, minimum) and precipitation from the E-OBS version dataset 8. Other simulated parameters (e.g., cloudiness, radiation or components of water cycle) were compared to the ERA-40 re-analyses. The validation of the first ERA-40 simulation in both, 25 km and 6.25 km resolutions, revealed significant cold biases in all seasons and overestimation of precipitation in the selected Central Europe target area (0° - 30° eastern longitude ; 40° - 60° northern latitude). The differences between these simulations were small and thus revealed a robustness of the model's physical parameterization on the resolution change. The series of 25 km resolution simulations with several model adaptations was carried out to study their effect on the simulated properties of climate variables and thus possibly identify a source of major errors in the simulated climate. The current investigation suggests the main reason for biases is related to the model physic. Acknowledgements: This study was performed within the frame of projects ALARO (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation) and CzechGlobe Centre (CZ.1

Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. M. Griffies

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

Climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fellous, J.L.

2005-02-01

This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

The volcanic contribution to climate change of the past 100 years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robock, A.

1990-01-01

Volcanic eruptions which inject large amounts of sulfur-rich gas into the stratosphere produce dust veils which last several years and cool the earth's surface. At the same time these dust veils absorb enough solar radiation to warm the stratosphere. Since these temperature changes at the earth's surface and in the stratosphere are both in the opposite direction to the hypothesized effects from greenhouse gases, they act to delay and mask the detection of greenhouse effects on the climate system. A large portion of the global climate change of the past 100 years may be due to the effects of volcanoes, but a definitive answer is not yet clear. While effects over several years have been demonstrated with both data studies and numerical models, long-term effects, while found in climate model calculations, await confirmation with more realistic models. In this paper chronologies of past volcanic eruptions and the evidence from data analyses and climate model calculations are reviewed

Climate Impacts of Cover Crops

Science.gov (United States)

Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Bonan, G. B.; Morris, C. K.; Grandy, S.

2016-12-01

Cover crops are planted in agricultural rotation with the intention of protecting soil rather than harvest. Cover crops have numerous environmental benefits that include preventing soil erosion, increasing soil fertility, and providing weed and pest control- among others. In addition to localized environmental benefits, cover crops can have important regional or global biogeochemical impacts by increasing soil organic carbon, changing emissions of greenhouse trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane, and reducing hydrologic nitrogen losses. Cover crops may additionally affect climate by changing biogeophysical processes, like albedo and latent heat flux, though these potential changes have not yet been evaluated. Here we use the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) - Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to test how planting cover crops in the United States may change biogeophysical fluxes and climate. We present seasonal changes in albedo, heat fluxes, evaporative partitioning, radiation, and the resulting changes in temperature. Preliminary analyses show that during seasons when cover crops are planted, latent heat flux increases and albedo decreases, changing the evaporative fraction and surface temperatures. Understanding both the biogeophysical changes caused by planting cover crops in this study and the biogeochemical changes found in other studies will give a clearer picture of the overall impacts of cover crops on climate and atmospheric chemistry, informing how this land use strategy will impact climate in the future.

Structural and magnetic properties of multi-core nanoparticles analysed using a generalised numerical inversion method

Science.gov (United States)

Bender, P.; Bogart, L. K.; Posth, O.; Szczerba, W.; Rogers, S. E.; Castro, A.; Nilsson, L.; Zeng, L. J.; Sugunan, A.; Sommertune, J.; Fornara, A.; González-Alonso, D.; Barquín, L. Fernández; Johansson, C.

2017-01-01

The structural and magnetic properties of magnetic multi-core particles were determined by numerical inversion of small angle scattering and isothermal magnetisation data. The investigated particles consist of iron oxide nanoparticle cores (9 nm) embedded in poly(styrene) spheres (160 nm). A thorough physical characterisation of the particles included transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction and asymmetrical flow field-flow fractionation. Their structure was ultimately disclosed by an indirect Fourier transform of static light scattering, small angle X-ray scattering and small angle neutron scattering data of the colloidal dispersion. The extracted pair distance distribution functions clearly indicated that the cores were mostly accumulated in the outer surface layers of the poly(styrene) spheres. To investigate the magnetic properties, the isothermal magnetisation curves of the multi-core particles (immobilised and dispersed in water) were analysed. The study stands out by applying the same numerical approach to extract the apparent moment distributions of the particles as for the indirect Fourier transform. It could be shown that the main peak of the apparent moment distributions correlated to the expected intrinsic moment distribution of the cores. Additional peaks were observed which signaled deviations of the isothermal magnetisation behavior from the non-interacting case, indicating weak dipolar interactions. PMID:28397851

The spatial variable glacier mass loss over the southeast Tibet Plateau and the climate cause analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Ke, L.; Ding, X.; Song, C.; Sheng, Y.

2016-12-01

Temperate glaciers can be highly sensitive to global climate change due to relatively humid and warm local climate. Numerous temperate glaciers are distributed in the southeastern Tibet Plateau (SETP) and their changes are still poorly represented. Based on a latest glacier inventory and ICESat altimetry measurements, we examine the spatial heterogeneity of glacier change in the SETP (including the central and eastern Nyainqêntanglha ranges) and further analyze its relation with climate change by using station-based and gridded meteorological data. Our results show that SETP glaciers experienced drastic surface lowering at about -0.84±0.26 m a-1 on average over 2003-2008. Debris-covered ice thinned at an average rate of -1.13±0.32 m a-1, in comparison with -0.92±0.17 m a-1 over the debris-free ice areas. The thinning rate is the strongest in the southeastern sub-region (up to -1.24 m a-1 ) and moderate ( -0.45 m a-1 ) in the central and northwestern parts, which is in general agreement with the pattern of surface mass changes based on the GRACE gravimetry observation. Long-term climate data at weather stations show that, in comparison with the period of 1992-2002, mean temperature increased by 0.46 °C - 0.59 °C in the recent decade (2003-2013); while the change of summer precipitation exhibited remarkably spatial variability, following a southeast-northwest contrasting pattern (decreasing by over 10% in the southeast, to stable level in the central region, and increment up to 10% in the northwest). This spatially variable precipitation change is consistent with results from CN05 grid data and ERA re-analysis data, and agrees well with the spatial pattern of glacier surface elevation changes. The results suggest that overall negative glacier mass balances in SETP are governed by temperature rising, while the different precipitation change could contribute to inconsistent glacier thinning rates. The spatial pattern of precipitation decrease and mass loss might

Analysing countries' contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elzen, Michel den; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Hoehne, Niklas; Trudinger, Cathy; Lowe, Jason; Matthews, Ben; Romstad, Bard; Pires de Campos, Christiano; Andronova, Natalia

2005-01-01

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the 'Brazilian Proposal'). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change-from emissions of greenhouse gases alone-are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO 2 emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

2016-01-01

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pryse-Phillips, Amy; Snelgrove, Ken

2010-01-01

Climate change is likely to affect extreme flows as well as average flows. This is an important consideration for hydroelectric power producers. This paper presented the development of an approach to assess the impact of climate changes on seasonal and average annual river flows. The main goal was to investigate how climate change will affect the hydroelectric potential of the Lower Churchill Project using different combinations of emissions scenarios, climate model output and downscaling techniques. The setup and calibration of the numerical hydrological model, WATFLOOD, were performed as preliminary work for the Pinus River basin selected as study basin. Downscaled climate data from the North America change assessment program for both current and future climate periods were analysed. The calibrated model was used to simulate the current and future period streamflow scenarios. The results showed a 13 percent increase in mean annual flows concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.

Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pryse-Phillips, Amy [Hatch Ltd., St John' s, (Canada); Snelgrove, Ken [Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John' s, (Canada)

2010-07-01

Climate change is likely to affect extreme flows as well as average flows. This is an important consideration for hydroelectric power producers. This paper presented the development of an approach to assess the impact of climate changes on seasonal and average annual river flows. The main goal was to investigate how climate change will affect the hydroelectric potential of the Lower Churchill Project using different combinations of emissions scenarios, climate model output and downscaling techniques. The setup and calibration of the numerical hydrological model, WATFLOOD, were performed as preliminary work for the Pinus River basin selected as study basin. Downscaled climate data from the North America change assessment program for both current and future climate periods were analysed. The calibrated model was used to simulate the current and future period streamflow scenarios. The results showed a 13 percent increase in mean annual flows concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.

Etude Climat no. 37 '10 lessons from 10 years of the CDM'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shishlov, Igor; Bellassen, Valentin

2012-01-01

Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the first and by far the largest carbon offset instrument in the world. To date, it is the only market based on an environmental commodity which managed to attract several billions of euros of private capital on an annual basis. Being the first-of-a-kind climate change mitigation instrument, the CDM followed a 'learning by doing' pattern undergoing numerous reforms throughout its more than 10-year history. Although the post-2012 fate of the mechanism remains uncertain, one should not 'throw out the baby with the bath water' as the lessons from the CDM experience may be useful not only for the CDM reform but also for new market instruments

Analysing the conflicting requirements of the framework convention on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enting, I.G.

1995-01-01

The objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change imply the conflicting constraints of minimising concentrations and maximising emissions (e.g. minimising emission restrictions). Carbon cycle models are readily used for 'forward' calculations of future CO 2 given specific emissions and the 'inverse' problem of deducing the emissions required to achieve specific concentration profiles. However these approaches (a) are each geared to only one side of the problem; and (b) each requires the specification of a particular pathway in terms of either emissions or concentrations. These limitations can be avoided by analysing the relations between future emissions and concentrations of CO 2 using a formalism that optimises overall possible future emission profiles, subject to relevant constraints on both emissions and concentrations. The paper presents specific calculations indicating which combinations of upper bounds on concentrations and lower bounds on emissions are mutually inconsistent and which are consistent. The authors calculate the (smaller) consistency regions that apply if emission reductions are restricted to less than 0.5% p.a. or less than 1% p.a. In each case, two reference periods (1990-2100 and 1990-2200) are considered. 11 refs., 4 figs

Numerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum

Science.gov (United States)

Sulzbacher, H.; Wiederhold, H.; Siemon, B.; Grinat, M.; Igel, J.; Burschil, T.; Günther, T.; Hinsby, K.

2012-03-01

A numerical variable-density groundwater model is set up for the North Sea Island of Borkum to estimate climate change impacts on coastal aquifers and especially the situation of barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. The database includes information from boreholes, a seismic survey, a helicopter-borne electromagnetic survey (HEM), monitoring of the freshwater-saltwater boundary by vertical electrode chains in two boreholes, measurements of groundwater table, pumping and slug tests, as well as water samples. Based on a statistical analysis of borehole columns, seismic sections and HEM, a hydrogeological model is set up. The groundwater model is developed using the finite-element programme FEFLOW. The variable-density groundwater model is calibrated on the basis of hydraulic, hydrological and geophysical data, in particular spatial HEM and local monitoring data. Verification runs with the calibrated model show good agreement between measured and computed hydraulic heads. A good agreement is also obtained between measured and computed density or total dissolved solids data for both the entire freshwater lens on a large scale and in the area of the well fields on a small scale. For simulating future changes in this coastal groundwater system until the end of the current century we use the climate scenario A2, specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in particular the data for the German North Sea coast. Simulation runs show proceeding salinization with time beneath the well fields of the two waterworks Waterdelle and Ostland. The modelling study shows that spreading of well fields is an appropriate protection measure against excessive salinization of the water supply until the end of the current century.

Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perch-Nielsen, S.; Amelung, B.; Knutti, R.

2010-01-01

Climate is an important resource for many types of tourism. One of several metrics for the suitability of climate for sightseeing is Mieczkowski’s “Tourism Climatic Index” (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. By means of the TCI, we analyse the present climate resources for

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction systems based on Linux cluster architectures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasqui, M.; Baldi, M.; Gozzini, B.; Maracchi, G.; Giuliani, G.; Montagnani, S.

2005-01-01

The progress in weather forecast and atmospheric science has been always closely linked to the improvement of computing technology. In order to have more accurate weather forecasts and climate predictions, more powerful computing resources are needed, in addition to more complex and better-performing numerical models. To overcome such a large computing request, powerful workstations or massive parallel systems have been used. In the last few years, parallel architectures, based on the Linux operating system, have been introduced and became popular, representing real high performance-low cost systems. In this work the Linux cluster experience achieved at the Laboratory far Meteorology and Environmental Analysis (LaMMA-CNR-IBIMET) is described and tips and performances analysed

Numerical Modeling of Rocky Mountain Paleoglaciers - Insights into the Climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and the Subsequent Deglaciation

Science.gov (United States)

Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J. C.; Plummer, M. A.

2014-12-01

Numerical modeling of paleoglaciers can yield information on the climatic conditions necessary to sustain those glaciers. In this study we apply a coupled 2-d mass/energy balance and flow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003) to reconstruct local last glacial maximum (LLGM) glaciers and paleoclimate in ten study areas along the crest of the U.S. Rocky Mountains between 33°N and 49°N. In some of the areas, where timing of post-LLGM ice recession is constrained by surface exposure ages on either polished bedrock upvalley from the LLGM moraines or post-LLGM recessional moraines, we use the model to assess magnitudes and rates of climate change during deglaciation. The modeling reveals a complex pattern of LLGM climate. The magnitude of LLGM-to-modern climate change (temperature and/or precipitation change) was greater in both the northern (Montana) Rocky Mountains and southern (New Mexico) Rocky Mountains than in the middle (Wyoming and Colorado) Rocky Mountains. We use temperature depression estimates from global and regional climate models to infer LLGM precipitation from our glacier model results. Our results suggest a reduction of precipitation coupled with strongly depressed temperatures in the north, contrasted with strongly enhanced precipitation and much more modest temperature depression in the south. The middle Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming appear to have experienced a reduction in precipitation at the LLGM without the strong temperature depression of the northern Rocky Mountains. Preliminary work on modeling of deglaciation in the Sangre de Cristo Range in southern Colorado suggests that approximately half of the LLGM-to-modern climate change took place during the initial ~2400 years of deglaciation. If increasing temperature and changing solar insolation were the sole drivers of this initial deglaciation, then temperature would need to have risen by slightly more than 1°C/ky through this interval to account for the observed rate of ice recession.

Climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

2012-01-01

This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

2015-09-22

We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

Numerical FEM Analyses of primary coolant system at NPP Temelin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Junek, L.; Slovacek, M.; Ruzek, L.; Moulis, P.

2003-01-01

The main goal of this paper is to inform about the beginning and first steps of implementation of an aging management system at the Temelin NPP. The aging management system is important not only for achieving the current safety level but also for reaching operational reliability of a production unit equipment above the life time assumed by the original design, typically over 40 years. A method to locate the most prominent degradation regions is described. A global shell model of the primary coolant system including all loops and their components - reactor pressure vessel (RPV), steam generator (SG), main coolant pump (MCP), pressurizer, feed water and steam pipelines system is presented. The results of stress-strain analysis on the measured service parameters base are given. Validation of the results is very important and the method to compare the service measurement data with the numerical results is described. The global/local approach is mentioned and discussed. The effects of the complete global system on the individual components under monitoring are transformed into more accurate local spatial models. The local spatial models are used to analyze the gradual lifetime exhaustion of a facility during its service operation. Two spatial local models are presented, viz. feed water nozzle of SG and main coolant piping system T-brunch. The results of analysis of the local spatial models are processed by the neural network computing method, which is also described. The actual gradual damage of the material of the components under monitoring can be obtained based on the analyses performed and on the results from the neural network in combination with the knowledge of the real material characteristics. The procedures applied are included in the DIALIFE diagnostic system

Holocene climate variability in arid Central Asia as revealed from high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analyses of laminated sediments from Lake Chatyr Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

Science.gov (United States)

Lauterbach, S.; Plessen, B.; Dulski, P.; Mingram, J.; Prasad, S.

2013-12-01

A pronounced trend from a predominantly wet climate during the early Holocene towards significantly drier conditions since the mid-Holocene, mainly attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, climate in the adjacent regions of mid-latitude arid Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is supposed to have been characterized by pronounced dry conditions during the early Holocene, wet conditions during the mid-Holocene and a rather moderate drying during the late Holocene, which is mainly attributed to the complex interplay between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. However, although mid-latitude Central Asia thus might represent a key region for the understanding of teleconnections between the ASM system and the Westerlies, knowledge about past climate development in this region is still ambiguous due to the limited number of high-resolution palaeoclimate records. Hence, new well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from this region are expected to provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, a sediment core of about 6.25 m length has been recovered from alpine Lake Chatyr Kol (40°36' N, 75°14' E, 3530 m a. s. l., surface area ~170 km2, maximum depth ~20 m), located in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. Sediment microfacies analysis on large-scale petrographic thin sections reveals continuously sub-mm scale laminated sediments throughout the record except for the uppermost ca. 60 cm. Microsedimentological characterization of these laminae, which are most probably

Climate Sensitivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindzen, Richard [M.I.T.

2011-11-09

Warming observed thus far is entirely consistent with low climate sensitivity. However, the result is ambiguous because the sources of climate change are numerous and poorly specified. Model predictions of substantial warming aredependent on positive feedbacks associated with upper level water vapor and clouds, but models are notably inadequate in dealing with clouds and the impacts of clouds and water vapor are intimately intertwined. Various approaches to measuring sensitivity based on the physics of the feedbacks will be described. The results thus far point to negative feedbacks. Problems with these approaches as well as problems with the concept of climate sensitivity will be described.

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft-and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, TImothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric; Gamache, John; Amarin, Ruba; El-Nimri, Salem;

Which climate for tomorrow?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huet, S.

2000-01-01

This book explains in a clear way todays scientific knowledge about climate change and presents the method used by scientists to study climate and its evolution. It stresses on the urgency for an efficient international policy in order to fight against the striking increase of the Earth's greenhouse effect. However, it remains unbiased about the numerous uncertainties that exist in the possible scenarios proposed for tomorrows climate, despite the important progresses made in climatology these last years. (J.S.)

Numerical tables on physical and chemical analyses of Rhine water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

Tables on the places of measurement, the sampling methods and the methods of analysis used. The numerical tables of the measurement results are broken down in general parameters, organic, entrophicating and anorganic substances, orgnic micro-pollutants and radioactivity. (GG) [de

Uralic numerals : is the evolution of numeral system reconstructable? : (Reading new Václav Balzhek's book on numerals in Eurasia) / Vladimir Napolskich

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Napolskich, Vladimir

2003-01-01

Rmt.: Balzhek, Václav. Numerals. Comparative-etymological analyses of numeral systems and their implications (saharan, nubian, egyptian, berber, kartvelian, ralic, altaic and indo-european languages). Brno, 1999. (Spisy Masarykovy Univerzity v Brné. Filozofická fakulta; 322). Ülevaade uurali keelte arvsõnu käsitlevast osast

Pliocene climate

Science.gov (United States)

Dowsett, Harry J.; Caballero-Gill, R. P.

2010-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticated numerical models. The Pliocene exhibited a range in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with highs estimated to be at most ~425 ppm in the early Pliocene followed by overall decrease toward preindustrial levels by the close of the Pliocene Epoch (Pagani et al. 2010). Sea levels were estimated to be 25m higher than present day and the size and position of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were decidedly different from today. On the other hand, by the mid-Pliocene, the majority of fauna and flora as well as continental configurations were basically the same as today. Man’s ability to adapt to or mitigate the effects of future climate require a deep understanding of the rates and magnitude of future climate change on an ever finer scale. Since conditions projected for the end of this century are not in the human experience, we depend upon a combination of numerical climate models and comparison to analogous conditions in the geologic past. The Pliocene contains what might be the closest analog to climate conditions expected in the near future, and therefore understanding the Pliocene is not only of academic interest but essential for human adaptation.

The comfort houses. Measurements and analysis of indoor climate and energy consumption in 8 passive houses 2008-2011; Komforthusene - Maalinger og analyse af indeklima og energiforbrug i 8 passivhuse 2008-2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steen Larsen, T.; Lund Jensen, R.; Daniels, O.

2012-01-15

The report is prepared in relation to the project ''demonstration of energy consumption and indoor climate in 10 Danish passive houses'' which was carried out from 2008 to 2012 in the Comfort Houses. The report presents the achieved results based on measurements of indoor climate and energy consumption, and it also suggests viable solutions for the future low-energy buildings. The Comfort House project was started in 2007 as a development project at the company Saint Gobain Isover A/S, who wanted to disseminate knowledge about low-energy buildings and the principles behind them. The present report mainly focuses on the results from the Comfort Houses, but it also includes references to other Danish experimental buildings and development projects. Furthermore, the analyses are supplemented with experiences from Swedish low-energy buildings found through literature reviews. The indoor climate analyses deal with the different physical parameters that impact the residents. The evaluation includes both thermal, atmospheric, daylight and acoustic climate. The energy consumption is evaluated together with some of the key parameters from the houses that are related to the energy consumption. Finally, the residents' behaviour impacting both energy consumption and indoor climate are analysed. (LN)

Assessment of 6- to 20-Grade Educators' Climate Knowledge and Perceptions: Results from the Climate Stewardship Survey

Science.gov (United States)

McNeal, Karen S.; Walker, Scott L.; Rutherford, David

2014-01-01

The southeastern United States (SEUS) faces numerous potential impacts from a changing climate; however, the population has been characterized with a predominance of naysayers and few climate policies have been implemented by state governments in the region. As such, public education is an important avenue for achieving a climate literate…

Climate 2012 - Status and perspectives for Danish climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-03-01

Through 'Climate 2012'. The Danish government wishes to give a total survey of the Danish climate policy. The intention with 'Climate 2012' is to lead to the Danish Parliament's ratification of the Kyoto-protocol. 'Climate 2012' is the result of a renewed analysis and updating of the Danish policy pursued till now relating to the emission of greenhouse gasses, so that this policy now more precisely includes all elements contained in the Kyoto-protocol. The climate strategy is also the basis for the coming years' national work within the climate area, through implementing a range of analyses and surveys review a range of aspects the climate area, of relevance to the Danish climate policy in the short and long term. Finally the climate strategy is the basis for an evaluation of the demand for establishing a strengthened Danish network within the climate area. (EHS)

Responsible Climate Change Adaptation : Exploring, analysing and evaluating public and private responsibilities for urban adaptation to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mees, Heleen

2014-01-01

Cities are vulnerable to climate change. To deal with climate change, city governments and private actors such as businesses and citizens need to adapt to its effects, such as sea level rise, storm surges, intense rainfall and heatwaves. However, adaptation planning and action is often hampered when

Congruence between distribution modelling and phylogeographical analyses reveals Quaternary survival of a toadflax species (Linaria elegans) in oceanic climate areas of a mountain ring range.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Vargas, Pablo

2013-06-01

· The role of Quaternary climatic shifts in shaping the distribution of Linaria elegans, an Iberian annual plant, was investigated using species distribution modelling and molecular phylogeographical analyses. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain the Quaternary history of its mountain ring range. · The distribution of L. elegans was modelled using the maximum entropy method and projected to the last interglacial and to the last glacial maximum (LGM) using two different paleoclimatic models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). Two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions were sequenced for 24 populations (119 individuals sampled). Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographical, dating and coalescent-based population genetic analyses were conducted. · Molecular analyses indicated the existence of northern and southern glacial refugia and supported two routes of post-glacial recolonization. These results were consistent with the LGM distribution as inferred under the CCSM paleoclimatic model (but not under the MIROC model). Isolation between two major refugia was dated back to the Riss or Mindel glaciations, > 100 kyr before present (bp). · The Atlantic distribution of inferred refugia suggests that the oceanic (buffered)-continental (harsh) gradient may have played a key and previously unrecognized role in determining Quaternary distribution shifts of Mediterranean plants. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Analyses of determinants of adaptation to climate change among ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study examined the factors influencing arable crop farmers' adaptation to climate change in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria. Using multistage random sampling technique, 120 respondents were selected for detailed study. Focus Group Discussion and structured questionnaire were used to elicit information ...

Climatic changes inferred fron analyses of lake-sediment cores, Walker Lake, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, In Che.

1989-01-01

Organic and inorganic fractions of sediment collected from the bottom of Walker Lake, Nevada, have been dated by carbon-14 techniques. Sedimentation rates and the organic-carbon content of the sediment were correlated with climatic change. The cold climate between 25,000 and 21,000 years ago caused little runoff, snow accumulation on the mountains, and rapid substantial glacial advances; this period of cold climate resulted in a slow sedimentation rate (0.20 millimeter per year) and in a small organic-carbon content in the sediment. Also, organic-carbon accumulation rates in the lake during this period were slow. The most recent period of slow sedimentation rate and small organic-carbon content occurred between 10,000 and 5500 years ago, indicative of low lake stage and dry climatic conditions. This period of dry climate also was evidenced by dry conditions for Lake Lahontan in Nevada and Searles Lake in California, as cited in the literature. Walker Lake filled rapidly with water between 5500 and 4500 years ago. The data published in this report was not produced under an approved Site Investigation Plan (SIP) or Study Plan (SP) and will not be used in the licensing process. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

Climate and society: passed climates, man era, future climate: essential reference marks; Climat et societe: Climats passes, passage de l'homme, climat futur: reperes essentiels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melieres, M.A.; Marechal, Ch.

2010-07-01

This teaching book takes stock of the climate change question which has moved beyond the simple scientific framework. Man will play a key role in the changes to come and the choices he is going to make will have a major impact on our environment and on our societies. The aim of this book is to draw out the essential marks from the multiple disciplines involved in the study of climate change in order to get a global overview of the question. Starting from simple mechanisms showing up the driving components of the climate equilibrium (like the greenhouse effect), the authors analyse the climates of the past, and describe the different causes of the actual climate change and its possible evolution in the future. The global nature of the climate warming in progress is demonstrated and some of its actual impacts on the environment are shown up. The importance of the anthropic influence in this change is underlined as well as the stakes of the mastery of our greenhouse gas emissions. (J.S.)

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

2018-02-01

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

Climate-conscious architecture. Design and wind testing method for climates in change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuismanen, K.

2008-07-01

The main objective of this research was to develop practical tools with which it is possible to improve the environment, micro-climate and energy economy of buildings and plans in different climate zones, and take the climate change into account. The parts of the study are: State of art study into existing know-how about climate and planning. Study of the effects of climate change on the built environment. Development of simple micro-climate, nature and built environment analysis methods. Defining the criteria of an acceptable micro-climatic environment. Development of the wind test blower. Presenting ways to interpret test results and draw conclusions. Development of planning and design guidelines for different climate zones. An important part of the research is the development of the CASE wind test instrument, different wind simulation techniques, and the methods of observing the results. Bioclimatic planning and architectural design guidelines for different climate zones are produced. The analyse tools developed give a qualitative overall view, which can be deepened towards a quantitative analyse with wind testing measurements and roughness calculations. No mechanical rules are suggested, but complementary viewpoints and practices introduced to a normal planning process as well as improvement of consultative knowledge. The 'method' is that there is no strict mechanical method, but a deeper understanding of bioclimatic matters. Climate-conscious planning with the developed CASE method, make it possible to design a better micro-climate for new or old built-up areas. Winds can be used in to ventilate exhaust fumes and other pollutants, which improves the quality of air and the healthiness of the urban environment. The analyses and scale-model tests make it possible to shield cold windy areas and to diminish the cooling effect of wind on facades. According to studies in Scandinavian countries this will bring energy savings of 5-15 per cent. The method can

Modelling of anthropogenic and natural climate changes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Mikolajewicz, U; Bakan, S [Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)

1993-06-01

The delay of anthropogenic climate change caused by oceans and other slowly reacting climate system components forces us to numerical modeling as the basis of decisions. For three three-dimensional numerical examples, namely transient coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the additional greenhouse effect, internal ocean-atmosphere variability, and disturbance by soot particles from burning oil wells, the present-day status is described. From all anthropogenic impacts on the radiative balance, the contribution from trace gases is the most important.

Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

1995-01-01

Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country's vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations

Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

1995-12-31

Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Are Humans too Numerous to Become Extinct?

OpenAIRE

Cairns, John

2009-01-01

Some claim that humans are too numerous to become extinct. However, passenger pigeon, once the most numerous birds on the planet, are now extinct. For years, humankind has been damaging its habitat, discharging toxic chemicals into the environment, and having harmful effects on agricultural productivity due to climate change. Humankind s extinction depends on the continuation of various human activities including economic growth, addiction to fossil fuel, over consumption, overpopulation, oc...

Class Generation for Numerical Wind Atlases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cutler, N.J.; Jørgensen, B.H.; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær

2006-01-01

A new optimised clustering method is presented for generating wind classes for mesoscale modelling to produce numerical wind atlases. It is compared with the existing method of dividing the data in 12 to 16 sectors, 3 to 7 wind-speed bins and dividing again according to the stability...... of the atmosphere. Wind atlases are typically produced using many years of on-site wind observations at many locations. Numerical wind atlases are the result of mesoscale model integrations based on synoptic scale wind climates and can be produced in a number of hours of computation. 40 years of twice daily NCEP...... adapting to the local topography. The purpose of forming classes is to minimise the computational time for the mesoscale model while still representing the synoptic climate features. Only tried briefly in the past, clustering has traits that can be used to improve the existing class generation method...

Ecogeographical associations between climate and human body composition: analyses based on anthropometry and skinfolds.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Jonathan C K

2012-02-01

In the 19th century, two "ecogeographical rules" were proposed hypothesizing associations of climate with mammalian body size and proportions. Data on human body weight and relative leg length support these rules; however, it is unknown whether such associations are attributable to lean tissue (the heat-producing component) or fat (energy stores). Data on weight, height, and two skinfold thickness were obtained from the literature for 137 nonindustrialized populations, providing 145 male and 115 female individual samples. A variety of indices of adiposity and lean mass were analyzed. Preliminary analyses indicated secular increases in skinfolds in men but not women, and associations of age and height with lean mass in both sexes. Decreasing annual temperature was associated with increasing body mass index (BMI), and increasing triceps but not subscapular skinfold. After adjusting for skinfolds, decreasing temperature remained associated with increasing BMI. These results indicate that colder environments favor both greater peripheral energy stores, and greater lean mass. Contrasting results for triceps and subscapular skinfolds might be due to adaptive strategies either constraining central adiposity in cold environments to reduce cardiovascular risk, or favoring central adiposity in warmer environments to maintain energetic support of the immune system. Polynesian populations were analyzed separately and contradicted all of the climate trends, indicating support for the hypothesis that they are cold-adapted despite occupying a tropical region. It is unclear whether such associations emerge through natural selection or through trans-generational and life-course plasticity. These findings nevertheless aid understanding of the wide variability in human physique and adiposity. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

International climate protection legislation. The way towards a global climate agreement in the sense of common but differentiated responsibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jahrmarkt, Lena

2016-01-01

Climate Change is one of the most important issues in the 21st century. Its extensive impacts regarding society, policy, economy and environment and its threats require an effective reaction at the international level. But does the newly adopted Paris Agreement comply to the expectations? Or how could an effective Climate Agreement be achieved to meet climate effectiveness and climate justice? To answer these questions this study analyses the development of international climate change law in a comprehensive way. In combination with analysing the principle of common, but differentiated responsibility it is possible to present new aspects for a climate Agreement by learning from failures of the past and embracing the raising threat brought about by climate change.

School Climate Assessment Programs. Technical Assistance Bulletin 38.

Science.gov (United States)

National School Resource Network, Washington, DC.

Numerous studies indicate that climate, the prevailing "feeling" of the environment, not only contributes to behavioral and situational outcomes, but that climate can be changed to help bring about the behaviors and outcomes desired. Researchers have identified characteristics of positive school climates and ways of determining the presence or…

Using crowdsourced data from citizen weather stations to analyse air temperature in 'local climate zones' in Berlin, Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Fenner, Daniel; Meier, Fred; Bechtel, Benjamin; Otto, Marco; Scherer, Dieter

2017-04-01

Provision of observational data with high spatial coverage over extended time periods still remains as one of the biggest challenges in urban climate research. Classical meteorological networks are seldomly designed to monitor atmospheric conditions in a broad variety of urban environments, though the heterogeneity of urban structures leads to distinct thermal characteristics on local scales, i.e., hundreds of metres to several kilometres. One approach to overcome the aforementioned challenges of observation networks is to use data from weather stations that are maintained by citizens. The private company 'netatmo' (www.netatmo.com) produces and distributes such citizen weather stations (CWS) around the world. The stations automatically send their data to the netatmo server, and the user decides if data are publicly shared. Shared data can freely be retrieved via an application programming interface. We collected air temperature (T) data for the year 2015 for the city of Berlin, Germany, and surroundings with more than 1500 'netatmo' CWS in the study area. The entire data set was thoroughly quality checked, and filter techniques, involving data from a reference network, were developed to address different types of errors associated with CWS data. Additionally, the accuracy of 'netatmo' CWS was checked in a climate chamber and in a long-term field experiment. Since the terms 'urban' and 'rural' are ambiguous in urban climate studies, Stewart and Oke (2012) developed the 'local climate zone' (LCZ) concept to enhance understanding and interpretation of air temperature differences in urban regions. LCZ classification for the study region was conducted using the 'WUDAPT' approach by Bechtel et al. (2015). The quality-checked CWS data were used to analyse T characteristics of LCZ classes in Berlin and surroundings. Specifically, we analysed how LCZ classes are represented by CWS in 2015, how T varies within each LCZ class ('intra-LCZ variability'), and if significant

Safety climate and injuries: an examination of theoretical and empirical relationships.

Science.gov (United States)

Beus, Jeremy M; Payne, Stephanie C; Bergman, Mindy E; Arthur, Winfred

2010-07-01

Our purpose in this study was to meta-analytically address several theoretical and empirical issues regarding the relationships between safety climate and injuries. First, we distinguished between extant safety climate-->injury and injury-->safety climate relationships for both organizational and psychological safety climates. Second, we examined several potential moderators of these relationships. Meta-analyses revealed that injuries were more predictive of organizational safety climate than safety climate was predictive of injuries. Additionally, the injury-->safety climate relationship was stronger for organizational climate than for psychological climate. Moderator analyses revealed that the degree of content contamination in safety climate measures inflated effects, whereas measurement deficiency attenuated effects. Additionally, moderator analyses showed that as the time period over which injuries were assessed lengthened, the safety climate-->injury relationship was attenuated. Supplemental meta-analyses of specific safety climate dimensions also revealed that perceived management commitment to safety is the most robust predictor of occupational injuries. Contrary to expectations, the operationalization of injuries did not meaningfully moderate safety climate-injury relationships. Implications and recommendations for future research and practice are discussed.

Climate policy: Bucket or drainer?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oikonomou, Vlasis; Patel, Martin; Worrell, Ernst

2006-01-01

Worldwide, industry is responsible for about 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making it an important target for climate policy. Energy-intensive industries may be particularly vulnerable to higher energy costs caused by climate policy. If companies cannot offset rising energy costs and would face increased competition from countries without climate policy, they may decide to relocate their industrial production to the countries without climate policy. The resulting net effect of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries is typically referred to as 'carbon leakage'. Carbon leakage may lead to higher global GHG emissions due to the use of less advanced technology in less developed countries. Based on a literature review of climate policy, earlier environmental policy and analyses of historical trends, this paper assesses the carbon leakage effects of climate policy for energy-intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased global production share of Non-Annex 1 countries. However, from empirical analyses we conclude that the trend is primarily driven by regional demand growth. In contrast, climate policy models show a strong carbon leakage. Even though future climate policy may have a more profound impact than environmental policies in the past, the modelling results are doubtful. Leakage generally seems to be overestimated in current models, especially as potential positive spillovers are often not included in the models. The ambiguity of the empirical analyses and the modelling results warrants further research in the importance of production factors for relocation

Testing gravitational-wave searches with numerical relativity waveforms: results from the first Numerical INJection Analysis (NINJA) project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aylott, Benjamin; Baker, John G; Camp, Jordan; Centrella, Joan; Boggs, William D; Buonanno, Alessandra; Boyle, Michael; Buchman, Luisa T; Chu, Tony; Brady, Patrick R; Brown, Duncan A; Bruegmann, Bernd; Cadonati, Laura; Campanelli, Manuela; Faber, Joshua; Chatterji, Shourov; Christensen, Nelson; Diener, Peter; Dorband, Nils; Etienne, Zachariah B

2009-01-01

The Numerical INJection Analysis (NINJA) project is a collaborative effort between members of the numerical relativity and gravitational-wave data analysis communities. The purpose of NINJA is to study the sensitivity of existing gravitational-wave search algorithms using numerically generated waveforms and to foster closer collaboration between the numerical relativity and data analysis communities. We describe the results of the first NINJA analysis which focused on gravitational waveforms from binary black hole coalescence. Ten numerical relativity groups contributed numerical data which were used to generate a set of gravitational-wave signals. These signals were injected into a simulated data set, designed to mimic the response of the initial LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave detectors. Nine groups analysed this data using search and parameter-estimation pipelines. Matched filter algorithms, un-modelled-burst searches and Bayesian parameter estimation and model-selection algorithms were applied to the data. We report the efficiency of these search methods in detecting the numerical waveforms and measuring their parameters. We describe preliminary comparisons between the different search methods and suggest improvements for future NINJA analyses.

Climate and society: passed climates, man era, future climate: essential reference marks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melieres, M.A.; Marechal, Ch.

2010-01-01

This teaching book takes stock of the climate change question which has moved beyond the simple scientific framework. Man will play a key role in the changes to come and the choices he is going to make will have a major impact on our environment and on our societies. The aim of this book is to draw out the essential marks from the multiple disciplines involved in the study of climate change in order to get a global overview of the question. Starting from simple mechanisms showing up the driving components of the climate equilibrium (like the greenhouse effect), the authors analyse the climates of the past, and describe the different causes of the actual climate change and its possible evolution in the future. The global nature of the climate warming in progress is demonstrated and some of its actual impacts on the environment are shown up. The importance of the anthropic influence in this change is underlined as well as the stakes of the mastery of our greenhouse gas emissions. (J.S.)

Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

Science.gov (United States)

Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

2010-05-01

Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We

Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments Index

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > Global Climate Data & Maps > ; Global Regional Climate Maps Regional Climate Maps Banner The Monthly regional analyses products are

Wind Climate Analyses for a 61-M Tower in the Southeast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, A.H.

2003-01-01

The Savannah River Technology Center's (SRTC) Atmospheric Technologies Group (ATG) has operated nine 61-m tower sites including the Central Climatology (CC) tower which is located near the center of the Savannah River Site (SRS) since 1985. Data from the weather instruments on this tower have provided answers to questions involving risk analyses, dose studies, forecast verifications, and wind/temperature conditions during extreme events and planned tests. Most recently, data from these towers are being used for initial and boundary conditions for computationally intensive numerical simulations using mesoscale forecasting models that are run on a three-hourly basis by ATG for SRS and the surrounding vicinity. We found that a series of wind roses based on relatively short time scales (from two weeks to one hour) were a convenient method to depict the predominant wind speeds and directions at anemometer sites in the Southeast operated by the NWS. That report also revealed some interesting spatial and temporal relationships among thirteen NWS stations in the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida. Our study here will focus on the CC tower to show changes in the wind speed and direction distributions with height during diurnal and annual cycles. This study will concentrate on mean wind speed and direction statistics

The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cariolle, D.

1999-01-01

This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

Ultrascale Visualization of Climate Data

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Dean N.; Bremer, Timo; Doutriaux, Charles; Patchett, John; Williams, Sean; Shipman, Galen; Miller, Ross; Pugmire, David R.; Smith, Brian; Steed, Chad;

Numerical simulations and analyses of temperature control loop heat pipe for space CCD camera

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qingliang; Yang, Tao; Li, Chunlin

2016-10-01

As one of the key units of space CCD camera, the temperature range and stability of CCD components affect the image's indexes. Reasonable thermal design and robust thermal control devices are needed. One kind of temperature control loop heat pipe (TCLHP) is designed, which highly meets the thermal control requirements of CCD components. In order to study the dynamic behaviors of heat and mass transfer of TCLHP, particularly in the orbital flight case, a transient numerical model is developed by using the well-established empirical correlations for flow models within three dimensional thermal modeling. The temperature control principle and details of mathematical model are presented. The model is used to study operating state, flow and heat characteristics based upon the analyses of variations of temperature, pressure and quality under different operating modes and external heat flux variations. The results indicate that TCLHP can satisfy the thermal control requirements of CCD components well, and always ensure good temperature stability and uniformity. By comparison between flight data and simulated results, it is found that the model is to be accurate to within 1°C. The model can be better used for predicting and understanding the transient performance of TCLHP.

Climate change and its potential impact on mechanical, hydraulic and chemical conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naslund, J.O.

2009-01-01

The strategy for managing climate related conditions in SKB ' s safety assessments are based on the notion that it is not possible to predict climate in a 100 000-year time perspective. Instead, the approach in the SR-Can safety assessment was to identify and analyse both moderate climate evolutions as well as extremes within which the climate in Scandinavia may vary. To this end, knowledge on general climate variations in Scandinavia was used to identify characteristic climate domains which in turn were used to build a number of selected climate scenarios. The relevant climate domains for the Forsmark and Laxemar sites in the 100 000-year time perspective are; 1) a temperate climate domain, 2) a peri-glacial climate domain, and 3) a glacial climate domain. Also submerged/non-submerged conditions at the sites are of importance. In the SR-Can safety assessment several climate scenarios were investigated, including a reference evolution based on a repetition of reconstructed conditions for last glacial cycle (the Weichselian glaciation and the Holocene interglacial). For this reconstruction, extensive numerical simulations of ice sheets, isostatic changes, and permafrost were conducted. The resulting scenario showed site-specific timing and duration of the three climate domains and submerged periods for the full glacial cycle. This scenario is not a prediction of a future climate evolution. Instead it is one example of a future evolution that in a realistic and consistent way covers all relevant climate related changes that can be expected in a 100 000-year time perspective. Subsequently, this scenario formed the basis for the construction of additional climate scenarios that were used to analyse the effects of more extreme climate evolutions than during the last glacial cycle. Examples of complementary scenarios are a warmer and wetter climate scenario caused by an increased greenhouse effect, and colder scenarios with deeper permafrost or thicker ice sheets than in

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

Tree-rings and climate: Implications for Great Basin paleoenvironmental studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graybill, D.A.; Rose, M.R.; Nials, F.L.

1994-01-01

The Quaternary Sciences Center of the Desert Research Institute is currently conducting a multi-phased study of floral, faunal, and geomorphic response to long- and short-term climate change and extremes in assessing Yucca Mountain's suitability as a high-level nuclear waste repository. Preliminary results of these studies indicate synchronous responses in late Holocene tree-ring, palynology and geomorphic records. A tree-ring chronology for paleoclimatic reconstruction is developed by collection of multiple cores from 20-60 living trees and a similar number of dead trees in a climate-sensitive location. Samples are cross-dated and every growth layer in each specimen is measured to the nearest .001 mm. The measured ring width series potentially contain a variety of climatic, biological, and anthropogenic signals. Each ring width series is subjected to a numerical standarization procedure that removes an age-related biological growth trend, reduces endogeneous and exogenous stand disturbance factors, and maximizes any climatic signal that is present. Each of these empirically defined components can be graphically portrayed and subjected to further analyses. The geophysical signal analysis techniques involved in the standarized protocol are well-documented and established. The final result is a tree-ring chronology that represents regional paleoclimatic variability over the time represented by the sample population

Climate change, insurance, and the buildings sector: Technological synergisms between adaptation and mitigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mills, Evan

2002-11-01

Examining the intersection of risk analysis and sustainable energy strategies reveals numerous examples of energy efficient and renewable energy technologies that offer insurance loss-prevention benefits. The growing threat of climate change provides an added motivation for the risk community to better understand this area of opportunity. While analyses of climate change mitigation typically focus on the emissions-reduction characteristics of sustainable energy technologies, less often recognized are a host of synergistic ways in which these technologies also offer adaptation benefits, e.g. making buildings more resilient to natural disasters. While there is already some relevant activity, there remain various barriers to significantly expanding these efforts. Achieving successful integration of sustainable energy considerations with risk-management objectives requires a more proactive orientation, and coordination among diverse actors and industry groups.

Climate change, insurance and the building sector: technological synergisms between adaptation and mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, E.

2003-01-01

Examining the intersection of risk analysis and sustainable energy strategies reveals numerous examples of energy-efficient and renewable energy technologies that offer insurance loss-prevention benefits. The growing threat of climate change provides an added motivation for the risk community to understand better this area of opportunity. While analyses of climate change mitigation typically focus on the emissions-reduction characteristics of sustainable energy technologies, less often recognised are a host of synergistic ways in which these technologies also offer adaptation benefits, e.g. making buildings more resilient to natural disasters. While there is already some relevant activity, there remain various barriers to expanding these efforts significantly. Achieving successful integration of sustainable energy considerations with risk-management objectives requires a more proactive orientation, and coordination among diverse actors and industry groups. (author)

Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogmans, Christian W.J.; Dijkema, Gerard P.J.; Vliet, Michelle T.H. van

2017-01-01

When does climate change information lead to adaptation? We analyze thermal power plant adaptation by means of investing in water-saving (cooling) technology to prevent a decrease in plant efficiency and load reduction. A comprehensive power plant investment model, forced with downscaled climate and hydrological projections, is then numerically solved to analyze the adaptation decisions of a selection of real power plants. We find that operators that base their decisions on current climatic conditions are likely to make identical choices and perform just as well as operators that are fully ‘informed’ about climate change. Where electricity supply is mainly generated by thermal power plants, heat waves, droughts and low river flow may impact electricity supply for decades to come. - Highlights: • We analyze adaptation to climate change by thermal power plants. • A numerical investment model is applied to a coal plant and a nuclear power plant. • The numerical analysis is based on climate and hydrological projections. • Climate change information has a relatively small effect on a power plant's NPV. • Uncertainty and no-regret benefits lower the value of climate change information.

Climate, the time for action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petit, Michel; Barlier, F.; Bauer, P.; Besancenot, J.P.; Boe, J.; Bonneville, A.; Boucher, O.; Boy, D.; Cazenave, A.; Combarnous, M.; Dandonneau, Y.; Decampsk, H.; Drobrinski, P.; Ducrocq, V.; Durand, B.; Fouquart, Y.; Gautier, C.; Geistdoerfer, P.; Grandjean, A.; Guillou, M.; Labeyrie, L.; Laval, K.; Le Cozannet, G.; Lefebvre, M.; Le Treut, H.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Merle, J.; Ngo, C.; Pailleux, J.; Painter, J.; Pouyaud, B.; Salas y Melia, D.; Terray, L.; Vautard, R.; Voituriez, B.; Zaharia, R.; Tubiana, Laurence; Orsenna, Erik

2015-01-01

The objective of this collective book is to provide the public with elements of information showing that there is an actual risk that climate-related risk severely affects mankind during the next decades. A first part proposes a summary of the most recent works which place the problematic of climate change within its scientific context at different time and space scales. The second part describes the nature and properties of various greenhouse gases. The third part addresses the future evolution of some regional climates which are relevant for impact studies (possible evolutions during this century and beyond, associated uncertainties). The fourth part proposes a rather detailed presentation of possible consequences of local climate changes. The authors assess possible ecological consequences, analyse human and social risks and measures which could make these climate changes more bearable. The fifth part identifies actions to be performed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere, and the possibility to correct modifications we have imposed to the planet climate. The last part analyses the evolution of world awareness of the climate issue

A study on tokamak fusion reactor - Numerical analyses of MHD equilibrium= and edge plasma transport in tokamak fusion reactor with divertor configurations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Sang Hee; Lim, Ki Hang; Kang, Kyung Doo; Ryu, Ji Myung; Kim, Duk Kyu [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Soo Won [Kyungki Unviersity, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

1995-08-01

In the present project for developing the numerical codes of 2-DMHD equilibrium, edge plasma transport and neutral particle transport for the tokamak plasmas, we compute the plasma equilibrium of double null type and calculate the external coil currents and the plasma parameters used for operation and control data. Also the numerical algorithm is developed to analyse the behavior of edge plasmas in poloidal and radial directions and the programming and debugging of a 2-D transport code are completed. Furthermore, a neutral particle transport code for the edge region is developed and then used for the analysis of the neutral transport phenomena giving the sources in the fluid equations, and expected to supply the input parameters for the edge plasma transport code. 34 refs., 5 tabs., 28 figs. (author)

Estimating the numerical diapycnal mixing in an eddy-permitting ocean model

Science.gov (United States)

Megann, Alex

2018-01-01

Constant-depth (or "z-coordinate") ocean models such as MOM4 and NEMO have become the de facto workhorse in climate applications, having attained a mature stage in their development and are well understood. A generic shortcoming of this model type, however, is a tendency for the advection scheme to produce unphysical numerical diapycnal mixing, which in some cases may exceed the explicitly parameterised mixing based on observed physical processes, and this is likely to have effects on the long-timescale evolution of the simulated climate system. Despite this, few quantitative estimates have been made of the typical magnitude of the effective diapycnal diffusivity due to numerical mixing in these models. GO5.0 is a recent ocean model configuration developed jointly by the UK Met Office and the National Oceanography Centre. It forms the ocean component of the GC2 climate model, and is closely related to the ocean component of the UKESM1 Earth System Model, the UK's contribution to the CMIP6 model intercomparison. GO5.0 uses version 3.4 of the NEMO model, on the ORCA025 global tripolar grid. An approach to quantifying the numerical diapycnal mixing in this model, based on the isopycnal watermass analysis of Lee et al. (2002), is described, and the estimates thereby obtained of the effective diapycnal diffusivity in GO5.0 are compared with the values of the explicit diffusivity used by the model. It is shown that the effective mixing in this model configuration is up to an order of magnitude higher than the explicit mixing in much of the ocean interior, implying that mixing in the model below the mixed layer is largely dominated by numerical mixing. This is likely to have adverse consequences for the representation of heat uptake in climate models intended for decadal climate projections, and in particular is highly relevant to the interpretation of the CMIP6 class of climate models, many of which use constant-depth ocean models at ¼° resolution

The determination of optimal climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aaheim, Asbjoern

2010-01-01

Analyses of the costs and benefits of climate policy, such as the Stern Review, evaluate alternative strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by requiring that the cost of emission cuts in each and every year has to be covered by the associated value of avoided damage, discounted by a an exogenously chosen rate. An alternative is to optimize abatement programmes towards a stationary state, where the concentrations of greenhouse gases are stabilized and shadow prices, including the rate of discount, are determined endogenously. This paper examines the properties of optimized stabilization. It turns out that the implications for the evaluation of climate policy are substantial if compared with evaluations of the present value of costs and benefits based on exogenously chosen shadow prices. Comparisons of discounted costs and benefits tend to exaggerate the importance of the choice of discount rate, while ignoring the importance of future abatement costs, which turns out to be essential for the optimal abatement path. Numerical examples suggest that early action may be more beneficial than indicated by comparisons of costs and benefits discounted by a rate chosen on the basis of current observations. (author)

Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, In Chang; Tol, Richard S.J.; Hofkes, Marjan W.

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the “strong” tail-effect from arising, at least under some conditions such as bounded temperature increases, low risk aversion, low damage costs, and bounded utility function. More specifically, the fat-tailed risk with respect to a climate parameter does not necessarily lead to an unbounded carbon tax. In this case, the basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. - Highlights: • A fat tail is classified and the tail effect on climate policy is discussed. • The optimal carbon tax is not necessarily unbounded. • The basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. • This is a numerical confirmation of the recent theoretical research.

Experimental and Numerical Analyses of New Massive Wooden Shear-Wall Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Pozza

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Three innovative massive wooden shear-wall systems (Cross-Laminated-Glued Wall, Cross-Laminated-Stapled Wall, Layered Wall with dovetail inserts were tested and their structural behaviour under seismic action was assessed with numerical simulations. The wall specimens differ mainly in the method used to assemble the layers of timber boards composing them. Quasi-static cyclic loading tests were carried out and then reproduced with a non-linear numerical model calibrated on the test results to estimate the most appropriate behaviour factor for each system. Non-linear dynamic simulations of 15 artificially generated seismic shocks showed that these systems have good dissipative capacity when correctly designed and that they can be assigned to the medium ductility class of Eurocode 8. This work also shows the influence of deformations in wooden panels and base connectors on the behaviour factor and dissipative capacity of the system.

Quantifying climate-growth relationships at the stand level in a mature mixed-species conifer forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Teets, Aaron; Fraver, Shawn; Weiskittel, Aaron R; Hollinger, David Y

2018-03-11

A range of environmental factors regulate tree growth; however, climate is generally thought to most strongly influence year-to-year variability in growth. Numerous dendrochronological (tree-ring) studies have identified climate factors that influence year-to-year variability in growth for given tree species and location. However, traditional dendrochronology methods have limitations that prevent them from adequately assessing stand-level (as opposed to species-level) growth. We argue that stand-level growth analyses provide a more meaningful assessment of forest response to climate fluctuations, as well as the management options that may be employed to sustain forest productivity. Working in a mature, mixed-species stand at the Howland Research Forest of central Maine, USA, we used two alternatives to traditional dendrochronological analyses by (1) selecting trees for coring using a stratified (by size and species), random sampling method that ensures a representative sample of the stand, and (2) converting ring widths to biomass increments, which once summed, produced a representation of stand-level growth, while maintaining species identities or canopy position if needed. We then tested the relative influence of seasonal climate variables on year-to-year variability in the biomass increment using generalized least squares regression, while accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Our results indicate that stand-level growth responded most strongly to previous summer and current spring climate variables, resulting from a combination of individualistic climate responses occurring at the species- and canopy-position level. Our climate models were better fit to stand-level biomass increment than to species-level or canopy-position summaries. The relative growth responses (i.e., percent change) predicted from the most influential climate variables indicate stand-level growth varies less from to year-to-year than species-level or canopy-position growth responses. By

NASA and the National Climate Assessment: Promoting awareness of NASA Earth science

Science.gov (United States)

Leidner, A. K.

2014-12-01

NASA Earth science observations, models, analyses, and applications made significant contributions to numerous aspects of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) report and are contributing to sustained climate assessment activities. The agency's goal in participating in the NCA was to ensure that NASA scientific resources were made available to understand the current state of climate change science and climate change impacts. By working with federal agency partners and stakeholder communities to develop and write the report, the agency was able to raise awareness of NASA climate science with audiences beyond the traditional NASA community. To support assessment activities within the NASA community, the agency sponsored two competitive programs that not only funded research and tools for current and future assessments, but also increased capacity within our community to conduct assessment-relevant science and to participate in writing assessments. Such activities fostered the ability of graduate students, post-docs, and senior researchers to learn about the science needs of climate assessors and end-users, which can guide future research activities. NASA also contributed to developing the Global Change Information System, which deploys information from the NCA to scientists, decision makers, and the public, and thus contributes to climate literacy. Finally, NASA satellite imagery and animations used in the Third NCA helped the pubic and decision makers visualize climate changes and were frequently used in social media to communicate report key findings. These resources are also key for developing educational materials that help teachers and students explore regional climate change impacts and opportunities for responses.

Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers joint construction of climate perceptions

OpenAIRE

Asplund, Therese

2016-01-01

While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relat...

Simulated Climate Impacts of Mexico City's Historical Urban Expansion

Science.gov (United States)

Benson-Lira, Valeria

Urbanization, a direct consequence of land use and land cover change, is responsible for significant modification of local to regional scale climates. It is projected that the greatest urban growth of this century will occur in urban areas in the developing world. In addition, there is a significant research gap in emerging nations concerning this topic. Thus, this research focuses on the assessment of climate impacts related to urbanization on the largest metropolitan area in Latin America: Mexico City. Numerical simulations using a state-of-the-science regional climate model are utilized to address a trio of scientifically relevant questions with wide global applicability. The importance of an accurate representation of land use and land cover is first demonstrated through comparison of numerical simulations against observations. Second, the simulated effect of anthropogenic heating is quantified. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed using pre-historic scenarios of land use and land cover to examine and quantify the impact of Mexico City's urban expansion and changes in surface water features on its regional climate.

The climate change law of the federal government. Analyses and proposals to its further development; Das Klimaschutzrecht des Bundes. Analyse und Vorschlaege zu seiner Weiterentwicklung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sina, Stephan; Garstetter, Christiane; Bausch, Camilla; Goerlach, Benjamin; Neubauer, Alexander [Ecologic gGmbH Institut fuer Internationale und Europaeische Umweltpolitik, Berlin (Germany); Rodi, Michael [Greifswald Univ. (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer oeffentliches Recht, Finanz- und Steuerrecht

2011-09-15

The present report provides an analysis of the current German federal climate change law. Due to the crosssectoral character of this law, the study comprises regulations from different sectors and areas of law such as emissions trading, the energy sector and agriculture. Based on this analysis, proposals for the advancement of the German federal law of climate change are developed in five particular areas: a potential outline for a general climate protection act serving as the central legal act for climate change law, further considerations on the structure of climate change law, development proposals related to energy grids, federal requirements for municipal climate protection as well as agricultural land use. (orig.)

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

2015-01-01

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynch, Peter

2008-01-01

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed

Pleistocene climate change inferred from multi-proxy analyses of a loess-paleosol sequence in China

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yi; Qiu, Shifan; Fu, Shuqing; Rao, Zhiguo; Zhu, Zhaoyu

2018-04-01

The aeolian loess blanketing the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is sensitive to climate change in monsoonal East Asia. Here, we present a multi-proxy climatic record from a Pleistocene loess-paleosol sequence from the Lantian Basin on the southern margin of the CLP. The measurements include magnetic susceptibility and related magnetic properties, bulk median grain-size, color reflectance, and the color-inferred hematite versus goethite ratio (Hm/Gt). A long-term aridification and cooling trend during the interval from ca 2.22-0.43 Ma is indicated by two magnetic grain-size proxies, corresponding to the global climatic cooling of the late Cenozoic. In addition, at least four intervals of climatic extremes are evident in the record of Hm/Gt ratio: at 1.71-1.65 Ma, 1.26-1.24 Ma, 0.94-0.86 Ma, and 0.62-0.48 Ma. These intervals are characterized by distinct regional climates, which contrast with the global climatic conditions represented in marine sediments. For example, a relatively arid climate is documented from 1.71 to 1.65 Ma, which was rapidly succeeded by a relatively humid climate which is associated with the earliest hominin (with an age of ca 1.63 Ma) in the Lantian Basin.

Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark

2015-07-08

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

Climate and climate change sensitivity to model configuration in the Canadian RCM over North America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Elia, Ramon [Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal (Canada); Centre ESCER, Univ. du Quebec a Montreal (Canada); Cote, Helene [Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal (Canada)

2010-06-15

Climate simulations performed with Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been found to show sensitivity to parameter settings. The origin, consequences and interpretations of this sensitivity are varied, but it is generally accepted that sensitivity studies are very important for a better understanding and a more cautious manipulation of RCM results. In this work we present sensitivity experiments performed on the simulated climate produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). In addition to climate sensitivity to parameter variation, we analyse the impact of the sensitivity on the climate change signal simulated by the CRCM. These studies are performed on 30-year long simulated present and future seasonal climates, and we have analysed the effect of seven kinds of configuration modifications: CRCM initial conditions, lateral boundary condition (LBC), nesting update interval, driving Global Climate Model (GCM), driving GCM member, large-scale spectral nudging, CRCM version, and domain size. Results show that large changes in both the driving model and the CRCM physics seem to be the main sources of sensitivity for the simulated climate and the climate change. Their effects dominate those of configuration issues, such as the use or not of large-scale nudging, domain size, or LBC update interval. Results suggest that in most cases, differences between simulated climates for different CRCM configurations are not transferred to the estimated climate change signal: in general, these tend to cancel each other out. (orig.)

Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

ICLEA - The Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Schwab, Markus; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Blume, Theresa; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin

2017-04-01

Since 2012, the partner of the virtual institute ICLEA from Germany and Poland view on past changes as natural experiments as a guidebook for better anticipation of future changes and their impacts. Since the natural evolution became increasingly superimposed by human impacts since the Neolithic we include an in-depth discussion of impacts of climate and environment change on societies and vice versa. Understanding causes and effects of present-day climate change on landscapes and the human habitat faces two main challenges, (I) too short time series of instrumental observation that do not cover the full range of variability since mechanisms of climate change and landscape evolution work on different time scales, which often not susceptible to human perception, and, (II) distinct regional differences due to the location with respect to oceanic/continental climatic influences, the geological underground, and the history and intensity of anthropogenic land-use. Both challenges are central for the ICLEA research strategy and demand a high degree of interdisciplinary. In particular, the need to link observations and measurements of ongoing changes with information from the past taken from natural archives requires joint work of scientists with very different time perspectives. On the one hand, scientists that work at geological time scales of thousands and more years and, on the other hand, those observing and investigating recent processes at short time scales. Five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects: WP 1 focused on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analyzing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 are focused on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last

Numerical tables on physical and chemical analyses of Rhine water 1983

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

The numerical tables contain the measuring results of the physical-chemical studies on the Rhine water for the year 1983. The tables are arranged by general parameters, organic matter, eutrophicating substances, anorganic matter, metals, organic micropollution as well as by radioactivity (total alpha- or beta- and T-activity). (MM) [de

The time-dependent simplified P2 equations: Asymptotic analyses and numerical experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, U.; Miller, W.F. Jr.

1998-01-01

Using an asymptotic expansion, the authors found that the modified time-dependent simplified P 2 (SP 2 ) equations are robust, high-order, asymptotic approximations to the time-dependent transport equation in a physical regime in which the conventional time-dependent diffusion equation is the leading-order approximation. Using diffusion limit analysis, they also asymptotically compared three competitive time-dependent equations (the telegrapher's equation, the time-dependent SP 2 equations, and the time-dependent simplified even-parity equation). As a result, they found that the time-dependent SP 2 equations contain higher-order asymptotic approximations to the time-dependent transport equation than the other competitive equations. The numerical results confirm that, in the vast majority of cases, the time-dependent SP 2 solutions are significantly more accurate than the time-dependent diffusion and the telegrapher's solutions. They have also shown that the time-dependent SP 2 equations have excellent characteristics such as rotational invariance (which means no ray effect), good diffusion limit behavior, guaranteed positivity in diffusive regimes, and significant accuracy, even in deep-penetration problems. Through computer-running-time tests, they have shown that the time-dependent SP 2 equations can be solved with significantly less computational effort than the conventionally used, time-dependent S N equations (for N > 2) and almost as fast as the time-dependent diffusion equation. From all these results, they conclude that the time-dependent SP 2 equations should be considered as an important competitor for an improved approximately transport equations solver. Such computationally efficient time-dependent transport models are important for problems requiring enhanced computational efficiency, such as neutronics/fluid-dynamics coupled problems that arise in the analyses of hypothetical nuclear reactor accidents

Assimilation of radar altimeter data in numerical wave models: an impact study in two different wave climate regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Emmanouil

2007-03-01

Full Text Available An operational assimilation system incorporating significant wave height observations in high resolution numerical wave models is studied and evaluated. In particular, altimeter satellite data provided by the European Space Agency (ESA-ENVISAT are assimilated in the wave model WAM which operates in two different wave climate areas: the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The first is a wind-sea dominated area while in the second, swell is the principal part of the sea state, a fact that seriously affects the performance of the assimilation scheme. A detailed study of the different impact is presented and the resulting forecasts are evaluated against available buoy and satellite observations. The corresponding results show a considerable improvement in wave forecasting for the Indian Ocean while in the Mediterranean Sea the assimilation impact is restricted to isolated areas.

Celebrity Climate Contrarians: Understanding a keystone species in contemporary climate science-policy-public interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Boykoff, M. T.

2012-12-01

Since the 1980s, a keystone species called 'climate contrarians' has emerged and thrived. Through resistance to dominant interpretations of scientific evidence, and often outlier views on optimal responses to climate threats, contrarians have raised many meta-level questions: for instance, questions involve to what extent have their varied interventions been effective in terms of sparking a new and wise Copernican revolution; or do their amplified voices instead service entrenched carbon-based industry interests while they blend debates over 'climate change' with other culture wars? While the value of their influence has generated numerous debates, there is no doubt that climate contrarians have had significant influence on climate science, policy and public communities in ways that are larger than would be expected from their relative abundance in society. As such, a number of these actors have achieved 'celebrity status' in science-policy circles, and, at times, larger public spaces. This presentation focuses on how - particularly through amplified mass media attention to their movements - various outlier interventions have demonstrated themselves to be (often deliberately) detrimental to efforts that seek to enlarge rather than constrict the spectrum of possibility for mobilizing appropriate responses to ongoing climate challenges. Also, this work analyses the growth pathways of these charismatic megafauna through interview data and participant observations completed by the author at the 2011 Heartland Institute's Sixth International Conference on Climate Change. This provides detail on how outlier perspectives characterized as climate contrarians do work in these spaces under the guise of public intellectualism to achieve intended goals and objectives. The research undertaken and related in the presentation here seeks to better understand motivations that prop up these contrarian stances, such as possible ideological or evidentiary disagreement to the orthodox

Numerical modeling of atoll island hydrogeology.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, R T; Jenson, J W; Olsen, A E

2009-01-01

We implemented Ayers and Vachers' (1986) inclusive conceptual model for atoll island aquifers in a comprehensive numerical modeling study to evaluate the response of the fresh water lens to selected controlling climatic and geologic variables. Climatic factors include both constant and time-varying recharge rates, with particular attention paid to the effects of El Niño and the associated drought it brings to the western Pacific. Geologic factors include island width; hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost Holocene-age aquifer, which contains the fresh water lens; the depth to the contact with the underlying, and much more conductive, Pleistocene karst aquifer, which transmits tidal signals to the base of the lens; and the presence or absence of a semiconfining reef flat plate on the ocean side. Sensitivity analyses of steady-steady simulations show that lens thickness is most strongly sensitive to the depth to the Holocene-Pleistocene contact and to the hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer, respectively. Comparisons between modeling results and published observations of atoll island lens thicknesses suggest a hydraulic conductivity of approximately 50 m/d for leeward islands and approximately 400 m/d for windward islands. Results of transient simulations show that lens thickness fluctuations during average seasonal conditions and El Niño events are quite sensitive to island width, recharge rate, and hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer. In general, the depletion of the lens during drought conditions is most drastic for small, windward islands. Simulation results suggest that recovery from a 6-month drought requires about 1.5 years.

Climate and environmental change in China. 1951-2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qin, Dahe; Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, BJ; Ding, Yongjian; Mu, Mu

2016-01-01

Through numerous color figures and tables, this book presents the most up-to-date knowledge on climate and environmental change in China. It documents the evidence and attribution of climate and environmental changes in the past few decades and discusses the impacts of climate change on environments, economy, and society. The book further provides projections of climate change and its impacts in the future. Finally, it offers the climate change mitigation and adaption technologies with strategic options which will be of interest for policy makers, researchers and the general public as well.

Climate and environmental change in China. 1951-2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qin, Dahe [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou (China). Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute; Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, BJ (China). State Meteorological Administration; Ding, Yongjian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou (China). Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute; Mu, Mu (ed.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao (China). Inst. of Oceanology

2016-02-01

Through numerous color figures and tables, this book presents the most up-to-date knowledge on climate and environmental change in China. It documents the evidence and attribution of climate and environmental changes in the past few decades and discusses the impacts of climate change on environments, economy, and society. The book further provides projections of climate change and its impacts in the future. Finally, it offers the climate change mitigation and adaption technologies with strategic options which will be of interest for policy makers, researchers and the general public as well.

Numerical analyses of magnetic field and force in toroidal superconducting magnetic energy storage using unit coils (abstract)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanamaru, Y.; Nakayama, T.; Amemiya, Y.

1997-01-01

Superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) is more useful than other systems of electric energy storage because of its larger amounts of stored energy and its higher efficiency. There are two types of SMES. One is the solenoid type and the other is the toroidal type. Some models of solenoid-type SMES are designed in the U.S. and in Japan. But the large scale SMES causes a high magnetic field in the living environment, and causes the erroneous operation of electronic equipment. The authors studied some suitable designs of magnetic shielding for the solenoidal-type SMES to reduce the magnetic field in the living environment. The toiroidal type SMES is studied in this article. The magnetic leakage flux of the toiroidal-type SMES is generally lower than that of the solenoid-type SMES. The toroidal-type SMES is constructed of unit coils, which are convenient for construction. The magnetic leakage flux occurs between unit coils. The electromagnetic force of the coils is very strong. Therefore analyses of the leakage flux and electromagnetic force are important to the design of SMES. The authors studied the number, radius, and length of unit coils. The storage energy is 5 G Wh. The numerical analyses of magnetic fields in the toroidal type SMES are obtained by analytical solutions. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Black, Peter; Chen, Shuyi; Hood, Robbie; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Chris; Uhlhorn, Eric; Krishnamurti, T. N.;

CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

2006-01-01

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

Prediction of daily spring hydrographs for future climatic scenarios based on an integrated numerical modelling approach: Application on a snow-governed semi- arid karst catchment area.

Science.gov (United States)

Doummar, J.; Kassem, A.; Gurdak, J. J.

2017-12-01

In the framework of a three-year USAID/NSF- funded PEER Science project, flow in a karst system in Lebanon (Assal Spring; discharge 0.2-2.5 m3/s yearly volume of 22-30 Mm3) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated using an integrated numerical model (Mike She 2016). The calibrated model (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.77) is based on high resolution input data (2014-2017) and detailed catchment characterization. The approach is to assess the influence of various model parameters on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone) based on an integrated numerical model. These parameters include precipitation intensity and magnitude, temperature, snow-melt parameters, in addition to karst specific spatially distributed features such as fast infiltration points, soil properties and thickness, topographical slopes, Epikarst and thickness of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity among others. Moreover, the model is currently simulated forward using various scenarios for future climate (Global Climate Models GCM; daily downscaled temperature and precipitation time series for Lebanon 2020-2045) in order to depict the flow rates expected in the future and the effect of climate change on hydrographs recession coefficients, discharge maxima and minima, and total spring discharge volume . Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge or indirectly on the vulnerability of the system (soil thickness, soil and rock hydraulic conductivity appear to be amongst the highly sensitive parameters). This study particularly unravels the normalized single effect of rain magnitude and intensity, snow, and temperature change on the flow rate (e.g., a change of temperature of 3° on the catchment yields a Residual Mean Square Error RMSE of 0.15 m3/s in the spring discharge and a 16% error in the total annual volume with

Climate Change Awareness and Attitudes Among Adolescents in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Skalík

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The distribution of climate change awareness of Czech adolescent students and their climate change related attitudes are analysed in this study. Even though the influence of accessed information on actual behaviour is usually described as rather small by most experimental studies, we argue that the effect of knowledge on specific behaviour becomes significant in a long time perspective. The main focus of the study is thus to offer a segmentation of youth in the issue of climate change related to information sources they trust and also related to the type of information on climate change – such as documents, processes, terms or numeral data. A sample of students from Masaryk University and several grammar schools from Czech Republic participated in the quantitative study focusing on their knowledge of climate change, information sources they use and proenvironmental attitudes. The survey highlighted the extremely low level of students’ knowledge. A strong tie between the amount of accessed information and evaluation of the seriousness of climate change was found. Trust in scientific evidence and effort not to rely only on one source of information does correlate with respondent awareness. Students, who understand climate change well, are often post-materialists. On the other hand, informed students do not feel greater concern and are not more globally focused than others. Although there is no clear relation between awareness and levels of consumerism, the more were the students informed, the more they feel their personal responsibility for climate change. Females are not on average better informed then males, but their feeling of personal responsibility is much higher. The study thus confirmed general expectations about unspecific awareness of climate change in the specific context and presented segmentations of the public for further social-marketing purposes.      

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

2011-01-01

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between...... climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...

Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Michael Funke; Yu-Fu Chen; Nicole Glanemann

2011-01-01

This paper examines the impact of Knightian uncertainty upon optimal climate policy through the prism of a continuous-time real option modelling framework. We analytically determine optimal intertemporal climate policies under ambiguous assessments of climate damages. Additionally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the properties of the model. The results indicate that increasing Knightian uncertainty accelerates climate policy, i.e. policy makers become more reluctant to postp...

Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Asplund, Therese

2016-07-01

While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. © The Author(s) 2014.

Gray Wolves as Climate Change Buffers in Yellowstone

OpenAIRE

Wilmers Christopher C; Getz Wayne M; Getz Wayne M

2005-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefo...

Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.

OpenAIRE

Christopher C Wilmers; Wayne M Getz

2005-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefo...

Climate-driven environmental changes around 8,200 years ago favoured increases in cetacean strandings and Mediterranean hunter-gatherers exploited them.

Science.gov (United States)

Mannino, Marcello A; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; Di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P

2015-11-17

Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell'Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.

Reactor Thermal Hydraulic Numerical Calculation And Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duong Ngoc Hai; Dang The Ba

2008-01-01

In the paper the results of analysis of thermal hydraulic state models using the numerical codes such as COOLOD, EUREKA and RELAP5 for simulation of the reactor thermal hydraulic states are presented. The calculations, analyses of reactor thermal hydraulic state and safety were implemented using different codes. The received numerical results, which were compared each to other, to experiment measurement of Dalat (Vietnam) research reactor and published results, show their appropriateness and capacity for analyses of different appropriate cases. (author)

Safety climate in Swiss hospital units: Swiss version of the Safety Climate Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Gehring, Katrin; Mascherek, Anna C.; Bezzola, Paula

2015-01-01

Abstract Rationale, aims and objectives Safety climate measurements are a broadly used element of improvement initiatives. In order to provide a sound and easy‐to‐administer instrument for the use in Swiss hospitals, we translated the Safety Climate Survey into German and French. Methods After translating the Safety Climate Survey into French and German, a cross‐sectional survey study was conducted with health care professionals (HCPs) in operating room (OR) teams and on OR‐related wards in 10 Swiss hospitals. Validity of the instrument was examined by means of Cronbach's alpha and missing rates of the single items. Item‐descriptive statistics group differences and percentage of ‘problematic responses’ (PPR) were calculated. Results 3153 HCPs completed the survey (response rate: 63.4%). 1308 individuals were excluded from the analyses because of a profession other than doctor or nurse or invalid answers (n = 1845; nurses = 1321, doctors = 523). Internal consistency of the translated Safety Climate Survey was good (Cronbach's alpha G erman = 0.86; Cronbach's alpha F rench = 0.84). Missing rates at item level were rather low (0.23–4.3%). We found significant group differences in safety climate values regarding profession, managerial function, work area and time spent in direct patient care. At item level, 14 out of 21 items showed a PPR higher than 10%. Conclusions Results indicate that the French and German translations of the Safety Climate Survey might be a useful measurement instrument for safety climate in Swiss hospital units. Analyses at item level allow for differentiating facets of safety climate into more positive and critical safety climate aspects. PMID:25656302

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) US daily temperature analyses

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. daily temperature analyses are maps depicting various temperature quantities utilizing daily maximum and minimum temperature data across the US. Maps are...

Estimating the Numerical Diapycnal Mixing in the GO5.0 Ocean Model

Science.gov (United States)

Megann, A.; Nurser, G.

2014-12-01

Constant-depth (or "z-coordinate") ocean models such as MOM4 and NEMO have become the de facto workhorse in climate applications, and have attained a mature stage in their development and are well understood. A generic shortcoming of this model type, however, is a tendency for the advection scheme to produce unphysical numerical diapycnal mixing, which in some cases may exceed the explicitly parameterised mixing based on observed physical processes, and this is likely to have effects on the long-timescale evolution of the simulated climate system. Despite this, few quantitative estimations have been made of the magnitude of the effective diapycnal diffusivity due to numerical mixing in these models. GO5.0 is the latest ocean model configuration developed jointly by the UK Met Office and the National Oceanography Centre (Megann et al, 2014), and forms part of the GC1 and GC2 climate models. It uses version 3.4 of the NEMO model, on the ORCA025 ¼° global tripolar grid. We describe various approaches to quantifying the numerical diapycnal mixing in this model, and present results from analysis of the GO5.0 model based on the isopycnal watermass analysis of Lee et al (2002) that indicate that numerical mixing does indeed form a significant component of the watermass transformation in the ocean interior.

Hydraulic numerical analyses of the IFMIF target performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gordeev, S.; Heinzel, V.; Stieglitz, R.

2011-01-01

The target of the International Fusion Material Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) is one of the most crucial components of the planned facility, since due the high power densities only a free surface operated liquid lithium target is potentially capable to match the constraints set by the user community. Therefore in the design process two design options for such a free surface target have been elaborated. Both are analyzed by means of a time dependent large eddy simulation in this paper. The analysis of the numerical data rapidly shows that not only the nozzle but also the flow straighteners installed upstream the two step acceleration nozzle impact the flow especially in the boundary layers of the duct flow domain. Those boundary layers formulate the inlet conditions into the technically relevant target domain. In general both target design options serve an acceptable film thickness in the irradiation area. However, the design option with a straight to curved back wall is less preferable than a design solution with an entirely curved back wall since the surface shape exhibits larger surface fluctuations and a higher fluctuation intensity although the thermal behaviour close to the back wall is marginally better than for the entirely curved option.

Climate change: against despair

OpenAIRE

McKinnon, Catriona

2014-01-01

In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes w...

Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William G. Bennett

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Understanding the changes in future storm wave climate is crucial for coastal managers and planners to make informed decisions required for sustainable coastal management and for the renewable energy industry. To investigate potential future changes to storm climate around the UK, global wave model outputs of two time slice experiments were analysed with 1979–2009 representing present conditions and 2075–2100 representing the future climate. Three WaveNet buoy sites around the United Kingdom, which represent diverse site conditions and have long datasets, were chosen for this study. A storm event definition (Dissanayake et al., 2015 was used to separate meteorologically-independent storm events from wave data, which in turn allowed storm wave characteristics to be analysed. Model outputs were validated through a comparison of the modelled storm data with observed storm data for overlapping periods. Although no consistent trends across all future clusters were observed, there were no significant increases in storm wave height, storm count or storm power in the future, at least according to the global wave projection results provided by the chosen model.

Climate negotiators' and scientists' assessments of the climate negotiations

Science.gov (United States)

Dannenberg, Astrid; Zitzelsberger, Sonja; Tavoni, Alessandro

2017-06-01

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyse the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of 656 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centred on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who were more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals' perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations.

Key uncertainties in climate change policy: Results from ICAM-2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.

1995-12-31

A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to: inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives; and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.0. This model includes demographics, economic activities, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate change, sea level rise and other impact modules and the numerous associated feedbacks. The model has over 700 objects of which over 1/3 are uncertain. These have been grouped into seven different classes of uncertain items. The impact of uncertainties in each of these items can be considered individually or in combinations with the others. In this paper we demonstrate the relative contribution of various sources of uncertainty to different outcomes in the model. The analysis shows that climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. Extreme uncertainties in indirect aerosol forcing and behavioral response to climate change (adaptation) were characterized by using bounding analyses; the results suggest that these extreme uncertainties can dominate the choice of policy outcomes.

Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Lessmann, Kai; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2009-01-01

This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 o C since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 o C temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 o C). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing

A piecewise-integration method for simulating the influence of external forcing on climate

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhifu Zhang; Chongjian Qiu; Chenghai Wang

2008-01-01

Climate drift occurs in most general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of incomplete physical and numerical representation of the complex climate system,which may cause large uncertainty in sensitivity experiments evaluating climate response to changes in external forcing.To solve this problem,we propose a piecewise-integration method to reduce the systematic error in climate sensitivity studies.The observations are firstly assimilated into a numerical model by using the dynamic relaxation technique to relax to the current state of atmosphere,and then the assimilated fields are continuously used to reinitialize the simulation to reduce the error of climate simulation.When the numerical model is integrated with changed external forcing,the results can be split into two parts,background and perturbation fields,and the background is the state before the external forcing is changed.The piecewise-integration method is used to continuously reinitialize the model with the assimilated field,instead of the background.Therefore,the simulation error of the model with the external forcing can be reduced.In this way,the accuracy of climate sensitivity experiments is greatly improved.Tests with a simple low-order spectral model show that this approach can significantly reduce the uncertainty of climate sensitivity experiments.

The climate file

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

A series of interviews of a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and of researchers gives an overview of scientific knowledge on climate, discusses what could be a good agreement at the Copenhagen conference, outlines what is at stake in these negotiations, and proposes an overview of the French policy for the struggle against climate change. An article comments the content of a report published by the CAS (Centre d'Analyse Strategique), and more particularly the position of Russia and of the OPEC before the Copenhagen negotiations. A last article comments the results of three opinion surveys made in France about climate change, its origins and solutions, and about the representation French people have of greenhouse effect

An overview of the Yucca Mountain Global/Regional Climate Modeling Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandoval, R.P.; Behl, Y.K.; Thompson, S.L.

1992-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a site characterization plan (SCP) to collect detailed information on geology, geohydrology, geochemistry, geoengineering, hydrology, climate, and meteorology (collectively referred to as ''geologic information'') of the Yucca Mountain site. This information will be used to determine if a mined geologic disposal system (MGDS) capable of isolating high-level radioactive waste without adverse effects to public health and safety over 10,000 years, as required by regulations 40 CFR Part 191 and 10 CFR Part 60, could be constructed at the Yucca Mountain site. Forecasts of future climates conditions for the Yucca Mountain area will be based on both empirical and numerical techniques. The empirical modeling is based on the assumption that future climate change will follow past patterns. In this approach, paleclimate records will be analyzed to estimate the nature, timing, and probability of occurrence of certain climate states such as glacials and interglacials over the next 10,000 years. For a given state, key climate parameters such as precipitation and temperature will be assumed to be the same as determined from the paleoclimate data. The numerical approach, which is the primary focus of this paper, involves the numerical solution of basic equations associated with atmospheric motions. This paper describes these equations and the strategy for solving them to predict future climate conditions around Yucca Mountain

Historical Phenological Observations: Past Climate Impact Analyses and Climate Reconstructions

Science.gov (United States)

Rutishauser, T.; Luterbacher, J.; Meier, N.; Jeanneret, F.; Pfister, C.; Wanner, H.

2007-12-01

Plant phenological observations have been found an important indicator of climate change impacts on seasonal and interannual vegetation development for the late 20th/early 21st century. Our contribution contains three parts that are essential for the understanding (part 1), the analysis (part 2) and the application (part 3) of historical phenological observations in global change research. First, we propose a definition for historical phenonolgy (Rutishauser, 2007). We shortly portray the first appearance of phenological observations in Medieval philosophical and literature sources, the usage and application of this method in the Age of Enlightenment (Carl von Linné, Charles Morren), as well as the development in the 20th century (Schnelle, Lieth) to present-day networks (COST725, USA-NPN) Second, we introduce a methodological approach to estimate 'Statistical plants' from historical phenological observations (Rutishauser et al., JGR-Biogeoscience, in press). We combine spatial averaging methods and regression transfer modeling to estimate 'statistical plant' dates from historical observations that often contain gaps, changing observers and changing locations. We apply the concept to reconstruct a statistical 'Spring plant' as the weighted mean of the flowering date of cherry and apple tree and beech budburst of Switzerland 1702- 2005. Including dating total data uncertainty we estimate 10 at interannual and 3.4 days at decadal time scales. Third, we apply two long-term phenological records to describe plant phenological response to spring temperature and reconstruct warm-season temperatures from grape harvest dates (Rutishauser et al, submitted; Meier et al, GRL, in press).

CDIAC catalog of numeric data packages and computer model packages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boden, T.A.; Stoss, F.W.

1993-05-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center acquires, quality-assures, and distributes to the scientific community numeric data packages (NDPs) and computer model packages (CMPs) dealing with topics related to atmospheric trace-gas concentrations and global climate change. These packages include data on historic and present atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 concentrations, historic and present oceanic CO 2 concentrations, historic weather and climate around the world, sea-level rise, storm occurrences, volcanic dust in the atmosphere, sources of atmospheric CO 2 , plants' response to elevated CO 2 levels, sunspot occurrences, and many other indicators of, contributors to, or components of climate change. This catalog describes the packages presently offered by CDIAC, reviews the processes used by CDIAC to assure the quality of the data contained in these packages, notes the media on which each package is available, describes the documentation that accompanies each package, and provides ordering information. Numeric data are available in the printed NDPs and CMPs, in CD-ROM format, and from an anonymous FTP area via Internet. All CDIAC information products are available at no cost

SWIFT: Semi-empirical and numerically efficient stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

OpenAIRE

Kreyling, Daniel; Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

2015-01-01

The SWIFT model is a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone. It is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs), Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs). For computing time reasons these models often do not employ full stratospheric chem- istry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This can lead to insufficient representation between stratosphere and troposphere. The SWIFT stratospheric ozone chem...

Climate shocks: natural and anthropogenic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondrat'ev, K.I.

1988-01-01

The impact of multiple nuclear explosions in the earth atmosphere on global climate is explored, summarizing the results of recent theoretical modeling studies. Two natural analogs, the greenhouse effect and a major volcanic explosion, are analyzed; and particular attention is then given to data on the climatic effects of previous atmospheric tests of nuclear weapons, numerical models of these effects, and the effect of the Tunguska meteor fall of 1908 on the ozone layer and climate. It is concluded that, although the current models contain many uncertainties, multiple nuclear explosions would doubtless produce catastrophic changes, much more serious than those which would result from a doubling of the present CO 2 content. Strong temporal and spatial variabilities of climate would exclude normal life or industrial activity on the planet. 110 references

Selection of the Climate Parameters for a Building Envelopes and Indoor Climate Systems Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg Samarin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The current research considers the principles of selection of the climate information needed for the building envelope and indoor climate design and adopted in Russia and some European countries. Special reference has been made to the shortcoming of methodologies that include the notion of a typical year, and the advantages of climate data sets generated via software-based designs, using pseudo-random number generators. The results of the average temperature of the coldest five-day period with various supplies were calculated using the numerical Monte-Carlo simulations, as well as the current climate data. It has been shown that there is a fundamental overlap between the statistical distribution of temperatures of both instances and the possibility of implementation a probabilistic-statistical method principle in the development of certain climate data, relative to envelopes and thermal conditions of a building. The calculated values were combined with the analytic expression of the normal law of random distribution and the correlations needed for the main parameter selection.

Multi-level governance in EU climate law

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vedder, Hans; Woerdman, Edwin; Roggenkamp, Martha; Holwerda, Marijn

2015-01-01

This chapter analyses the multi-level governance in EU climate law; it connects the international arena, with EU and national decision-making and relates climate change considerations to competitiveness concerns.

Numerical Analysis of Multiscale Computations

CERN Document Server

Engquist, Björn; Tsai, Yen-Hsi R

2012-01-01

This book is a snapshot of current research in multiscale modeling, computations and applications. It covers fundamental mathematical theory, numerical algorithms as well as practical computational advice for analysing single and multiphysics models containing a variety of scales in time and space. Complex fluids, porous media flow and oscillatory dynamical systems are treated in some extra depth, as well as tools like analytical and numerical homogenization, and fast multipole method.

Deforestation and the Paris climate agreement: An assessment of REDD + in the national climate action plans

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hein, Jonas; Guarin, Alejandro; Frommé, Ezra; Pauw, W.P.

2018-01-01

More than ten years after REDD + (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) entered the UN climate negotiations, its current state and future direction are a matter of contention. This paper analyses 162 INDCs (Intended National Determined Contributions), or climate action plans,

Patient safety climate profiles across time: Strength and level of safety climate associated with a quality improvement program in Switzerland—A cross-sectional survey study

Science.gov (United States)

Mascherek, Anna C.

2017-01-01

Safety Climate has been acknowledged as an unspecific factor influencing patient safety. However, studies rarely provide in-depth analysis of climate data. As a helpful approach, the concept of “climate strength” has been proposed. In the present study we tested the hypotheses that even if safety climate remains stable on mean-level across time, differences might be evident in strength or shape. The data of two hospitals participating in a large national quality improvement program were analysed for differences in climate profiles at two measurement occasions. We analysed differences on mean-level, differences in percent problematic response, agreement within groups, and frequency histograms in two large hospitals in Switzerland at two measurement occasions (2013 and 2015) applying the Safety Climate Survey. In total, survey responses of 1193 individuals were included in the analyses. Overall, small but significant differences on mean-level of safety climate emerged for some subgroups. Also, although agreement was strong at both time-points within groups, tendencies of divergence or consensus were present in both hospitals. Depending on subgroup and analyses chosen, differences were more or less pronounced. The present study illustrated that taking several measures into account and describing safety climate from different perspectives is necessary in order to fully understand differences and trends within groups and to develop interventions addressing the needs of different groups more precisely. PMID:28753633

Strengthening Climate Services Capabilities and Regional Engagement at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center

Science.gov (United States)

Shea, E.

2008-12-01

The demand for sector-based climate information is rapidly expanding. In order to support this demand, it is crucial that climate information is managed in an effective, efficient, and user-conscious manner. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center is working closely with numerous partners to develop a comprehensive interface that is authoritative, accessible, and responsive to a variety of sectors, stakeholders, and other users. This talk will explore these dynamics and activities, with additional perspectives on climate services derived from the regional and global experiences of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center in the Pacific. The author will explore the importance of engaging partners and customers in the development, implementation and emergence of a national climate service program. The presentation will draw on the author's experience in climate science and risk management programs in the Pacific, development of regional and national climate services programs and insights emerging from climate services development efforts in NCDC. In this context, the author will briefly discuss some of guiding principles for effective climate services and applications including: - Early and continuous dialogue, partnership and collaboration with users/customers; - Establishing and sustaining trust and credibility through a program of shared learning and joint problem- solving; - Understanding the societal context for climate risk management and using a problem-focused approach to the development of products and services; - Addressing information needs along a continuum of timescales from extreme events to long-term change; and - Embedding education, outreach and communications activities as critical program elements in effective climate services. By way of examples, the author will reference lessons learned from: early Pacific Island climate forecast applications and climate assessment activities; the implementation of the Pacific Climate

Qualification des logiciels numériques. Application à un logiciel d'analyse de la combustion dans les moteurs à allumage commandé Qualification of Numerical Software. Application to a Software for Analysing Combustion in Spark-Ignition Engines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vignes J.

2006-11-01

Full Text Available La simulation numérique est actuellement très utilisée pour étudier les systèmes physiques. Elle nécessite un programme de calcul scientifique constitué d'un modèle mathématique représentatif du problème étudié et des méthodes numériques de résolution associées. Elle fournit des résultats numériques censés représenter le phénomène physique. Pour pouvoir valider la simulation, il est absolument indispensable, d'une part, d'estimer la propagation des erreurs d'arrondi due à l'arithmétique approchée des ordinateurs et, d'autre part, d'évaluer l'influence des erreurs de données sur les résultats fournis. Nous présentons, dans cet article, le logiciel CADNA qui permet de valider les logiciels numériques. Nous l'appliquons à un logiciel de simulation d'analyse de la combustion dans les moteurs à allumage commandé et en montrons son efficacité. For analyzing physical phenomena, numerical simulation is used more and more frequently. Starting with a mathematical model describing the phenomenon being analyzed, this simulation consists in creating a scientific computing program expressing this model by implementing the numerical methods required for solving it. Simulation is considered to be valid when the results its provides are in agreement with the results issuing from experimenting with the phenomenon. However, to conclude in the possible validity of the simulation, the numerical results provided by the computer must be previously validated. Yet, these results contain a computing error resulting from the propagation of round-off errors caused by the floating-point arithmetic used by the computer. They also contain an error coming from the uncertainties concerning the data of the problem. Hence it is first indispensable to assess the influence of these errors. This article is made up of two parts. The first part concerns the validation of numerical software results. After making a brief review of the floating

Intertemporal social choice and climate stabilization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Howarth, R.B. [Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH (United States). Environmental Studies Program

2001-07-01

This paper examines the implications of alternative approaches to intertemporal social choice in a numerically calibrated model of interactions between global climate change and the world economy. Under cost-benefit analysis, relatively modest steps towards greenhouse gas emissions abatement are justified as economically efficient. Under classical utilitarianism and the precautionary principle, in contrast, aggressive steps towards climate stabilization emerge as socially optimal. The paper reviews the value judgement that support each of these normative approaches, arguing that the precautionary principle is most loosely tied to the goals and objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. (Author)

User guides for the climate adaptation of buildings and infrastructure in Norway – Characteristics and impact

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Åshild Lappegard Hauge

2017-04-01

Full Text Available To reduce future damages on buildings and infrastructure, and prepare society for the coming climate challenges, in recent years numerous user guides have been developed. The objective of this study is to provide the first overview and analysis of, the characteristics of the existing guidance material for the climate adaptation of the built environment in Norway. 84 user guides and web portals are mapped and analysed, focusing on target groups and topics. The results are viewed in relation to qualitative interviews with experts responsible for promoting climate adaptation. A large share of the guidance material communicates climate adaptation at a general level rather than in-depth practical measures. The interviews confirm that there is an overwhelming amount of guidance material, and it is suggested that this may cause confusion and uncertainty among users. The study and its findings are placed within a context of the climate services literature, and “user guides” are understood as a type of “climate services product”. A main conclusion is that the abundance of user guides does not automatically lead to better climate adaptation. Too few user guides for climate adaptation sufficiently secure easily accessible information on practical measures. The guides are not broadly utilised, the language and length of the texts are sometimes problematic, and the target groups are often wide or not specified. The results presented may be used in order to develop improved user guides for climate adaptation in societies with similar climate and societal challenges to those in Norway.

The CM SAF SSM/I-based total column water vapour climate data record: methods and evaluation against re-analyses and satellite

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Schröder

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF aims at the provision and sound validation of well documented Climate Data Records (CDRs in sustained and operational environments. In this study, a total column water vapour path (WVPA climatology from CM SAF is presented and inter-compared to water vapour data records from various data sources. Based on homogenised brightness temperatures from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I, a climatology of WVPA has been generated within the Hamburg Ocean–Atmosphere Fluxes and Parameters from Satellite (HOAPS framework. Within a research and operation transition activity the HOAPS data and operation capabilities have been successfully transferred to the CM SAF where the complete HOAPS data and processing schemes are hosted in an operational environment. An objective analysis for interpolation, namely kriging, has been applied to the swath-based WVPA retrievals from the HOAPS data set. The resulting climatology consists of daily and monthly mean fields of WVPA over the global ice-free ocean. The temporal coverage ranges from July 1987 to August 2006. After a comparison to the precursor product the CM SAF SSM/I-based climatology has been comprehensively compared to different types of meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-ERA40, ERA INTERIM and operational analyses and from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA–JRA. This inter-comparison shows an overall good agreement between the climatology and the analyses, with daily absolute biases generally smaller than 2 kg m−2. The absolute value of the bias to JRA and ERA INTERIM is typically smaller than 0.5 kg m−2. For the period 1991–2006, the root mean square error (RMSE for both reanalyses is approximately 2 kg m−2. As SSM/I WVPA and radiances are assimilated into JMA and all ECMWF analyses and

Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

2007-01-01

This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design...... of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme...

Climate Change Effects to Plant Ecosystems - Genetic Resources for Future Barley Breeding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz

were identified for possible use in breeding of climate resilient cultivars and SNP-markers that link to traits favourable in changed environments. Basic knowledge of plant response to multifactor climate treatments has been added as well as data on numerous genotypes modeling the impact of climate...

Searching for climate-conflict links

Science.gov (United States)

Hendrix, Cullen S.

2018-03-01

Environmental scarcity caused by climate change has been implicated as a driver of violent conflict. Now, research shows significant bias in the regions analysed for climate-conflict links. This may limit understanding of the socioeconomic and political conditions in which such conflict occurs, and how these conflicts could be prevented.

Coal transport demand in Western Europe and Japan: Impacts of energy market liberalisation and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golombek, Rolf; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Maestad, Ottar

2005-12-01

Western Europe and Japan are among the main importers of coal. Climate policies following the Kyoto agreement are creating pressure to substitute away from coal and turn to less emission intensive energy sources. At the same time, liberalizations of energy markets in Europe and Japan are likely to cause reduced electricity prices, which will boost the overall demand for electricity. This paper analyses the combined effect of electricity market liberalization and climate policies on the international coal trade. Using the numerical equilibrium model LIBEMOD, we find that while liberalization of electricity markets will imply a large increase in aggregate coal transport demand, the negative impact of climate policies may be even larger, in particular if Russia and Ukraine utilise their market power in the market for emission permits. If this market power is exploited, the total effect of liberalisation and climate policy - when including the impact of general economic growth - is a 20% reduction in aggregate coal transport between 2000 and 2010. Further, impacts differ markedly between Western Europe and Japan. A main difference is that liberalisation has a much more positive - and climate policies have a much stronger negative - impact on steam coal demand in Western Europe than in Japan

Climate and climate variability of the wind power resources in the Great Lakes region of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

X. Li; S. Zhong; X. Bian; W.E. Heilman

2010-01-01

The climate and climate variability of low-level winds over the Great Lakes region of the United States is examined using 30 year (1979-2008) wind records from the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a three-dimensional, high-spatial and temporal resolution, and dynamically consistent climate data set. The analyses focus on spatial distribution...

Study of thermal-hydraulic analyses with CIP method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doi, Yoshihiro

1996-09-01

New type of numerical scheme CIP has been proposed for solving hyperbolic type equations and the CIP is focused on as a less numerical diffusive scheme. C-CUP method with the CIP scheme is adopted to numerical simulations that treat compressible and incompressible fluids, phase change phenomena and Mixture fluids. To evaluate applicabilities of the CIP scheme and C-CUP method for thermal hydraulic analyses related to Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs), the scheme and the method were reviewed. Feature of the CIP scheme and procedure of the C-CUP method were presented. The CIP scheme is used to solve linear hyperbolic type equations for advection term in basic equations of fluids. Key issues of the scheme is that profile between grid points is described to solve the equation by cubic polynomial and spatial derivatives of the polynomial. The scheme can capture steep change of solution and suppress numerical error. In the C-CUP method, the basic equations of fluids are divided into advection terms and the other terms. The advection terms is solved with CIP scheme and the other terms is solved with difference method. The C-CUP method is robust for numerical instability, but mass of fluid will be in unfair preservation with nonconservative equations for fluids. Numerical analyses with the CIP scheme and the C-CUP method has been performed for phase change, mixture and moving object. These analyses are depend on characteristics of that the scheme and the method are robust for steep change of density and useful for interface tracking. (author)

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Enriquez-de-Salamanca, Alvaro; Diaz Sierra, R.; Martin-Aranda, Rosa; Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship

Climate Change Impacts on the Congo Basin Region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ludwig, F.; Franssen, W.; Jans, W.W.P.; Kruijt, B.; Supit, I.

2012-01-01

This report presents analyses of climate change impacts in the Congo Basin on water for agriculture and hydropower, forest ecosystem functioning and carbon storage and impacts of climate variability and change on future economic development. To quantify the impacts of future climate we developed a

Climate: 15 inconvenient truths

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marko, Istvan E.; Furfari, Samuel; Masson, Henri; Preat, Alain; Debeil, Anne; Delory, Ludovic; Godefridi, Drieu; Myren, Lars; Ripa di Meana, Carlo

2013-01-01

Proposed by professionals of various disciplines, this book is considered as the bible of climate sceptics. It proposes a synthesis of arguments which deny prevailing views in the domain of climate. The authors show how, since fifteen years, reality has systematically denied projections made by the IPCC and its numerous political relays and media coverage. A first objective is therefore to unlatch the debate on the climate issue in front of a systematic practice of monopolization of truth at the expense of an authentic scientific approach, and to restore a democratic debate. A second objective is to put into question again the IPCC scientific character, scientific views which are at the heart of the last report published by the IPCC, and the political, media and economic reception of IPCC reports

Projection of future climate changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

2015-01-01

Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

Numerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum using hydrological and geophysical methods

Science.gov (United States)

Sulzbacher, H.; Wiederhold, H.; Siemon, B.; Grinat, M.; Igel, J.; Burschil, T.; Günther, T.; Hinsby, K.

2012-10-01

A numerical, density dependent groundwater model is set up for the North Sea Island of Borkum to estimate climate change impacts on coastal aquifers and especially the situation of barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. The database includes information from boreholes, a seismic survey, a helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) survey, monitoring of the freshwater-saltwater boundary by vertical electrode chains in two boreholes, measurements of groundwater table, pumping and slug tests, as well as water samples. Based on a statistical analysis of borehole columns, seismic sections and HEM, a hydrogeological model is set up. The groundwater model is developed using the finite-element programme FEFLOW. The density dependent groundwater model is calibrated on the basis of hydraulic, hydrological and geophysical data, in particular spatial HEM and local monitoring data. Verification runs with the calibrated model show good agreement between measured and computed hydraulic heads. A good agreement is also obtained between measured and computed density or total dissolved solids data for both the entire freshwater lens on a large scale and in the area of the well fields on a small scale. For simulating future changes in this coastal groundwater system until the end of the current century, we use the climate scenario A2, specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and, in particular, the data for the German North Sea coast. Simulation runs show proceeding salinisation with time beneath the well fields of the two waterworks Waterdelle and Ostland. The modelling study shows that the spreading of well fields is an appropriate protection measure against excessive salinisation of the water supply until the end of the current century.

Numerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum using hydrological and geophysical methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Sulzbacher

2012-10-01

Full Text Available A numerical, density dependent groundwater model is set up for the North Sea Island of Borkum to estimate climate change impacts on coastal aquifers and especially the situation of barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. The database includes information from boreholes, a seismic survey, a helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM survey, monitoring of the freshwater-saltwater boundary by vertical electrode chains in two boreholes, measurements of groundwater table, pumping and slug tests, as well as water samples. Based on a statistical analysis of borehole columns, seismic sections and HEM, a hydrogeological model is set up. The groundwater model is developed using the finite-element programme FEFLOW. The density dependent groundwater model is calibrated on the basis of hydraulic, hydrological and geophysical data, in particular spatial HEM and local monitoring data. Verification runs with the calibrated model show good agreement between measured and computed hydraulic heads. A good agreement is also obtained between measured and computed density or total dissolved solids data for both the entire freshwater lens on a large scale and in the area of the well fields on a small scale.

For simulating future changes in this coastal groundwater system until the end of the current century, we use the climate scenario A2, specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and, in particular, the data for the German North Sea coast. Simulation runs show proceeding salinisation with time beneath the well fields of the two waterworks Waterdelle and Ostland.

The modelling study shows that the spreading of well fields is an appropriate protection measure against excessive salinisation of the water supply until the end of the current century.

Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

2012-12-01

these projects is to provide the connections between climate data and running ecological models, and prototype these for future work. NCPP will develop capacities to provide enhanced climate information at relevant spatial and temporal scales, both for historical climate and projections of future climate, and will work to link expert guidance and understanding of modeling processes and evaluation of modeling with the use of numerical climate data. Translational information thus is a suite of information that aids in translation of numerical climate information into usable knowledge for applications, e.g. ecological response models, hydrologic risk studies. This information includes technical and scientific aspects including, but not limited to: 1) results of objective, quantitative evaluation of climate models & downscaling techniques, 2) guidance on appropriate uses and interpretation, i.e., understanding the advantages and limitations of various downscaling techniques for specific user applications, 3) characterizing and interpreting uncertainty, 4) Descriptions meaningful to applications, e.g. narratives. NCPP believes that translational information is best co-developed between climate scientists and applications scientists, such as the NC-CSC pilot.

Numerical analysis targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sollogoub, Pierre

2001-01-01

Numerical analyses are needed in different steps of the overall design process. Complex models or non-linear reactor core behaviour are important for qualification and/or comparison of results obtained. Adequate models and test should be defined. Fuel assembly, fuel row, and the complete core should be tested for seismic effects causing LOCA and flow-induced vibrations (FIV)

Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate, non-climatic environmental factors, and spatial constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Overgaard, Anne Blach; Svenning, J.-C.; Dransfield, John

2010-01-01

-climatic environmental predictors, the latter having no discernible effect beyond the climatic control. Hence, at the continental scale, climate constitutes the only strong environmental control of palm species distributions in Africa. With regard to the most important climatic predictors of African palm distributions......, water-related factors were most important for 25 of the 29 species analysed. The strong response of palm distributions to climate in combination with the importance of non-environmental spatial constraints suggests that African palms will be sensitive to future climate changes, but that their ability...

Long-term analyses of snow dynamics within the french Alps on the 1900-2100 period. Analyses of historical snow water equivalent observations, modelisations and projections of a hundred of snow courses.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathevet, T.; Joel, G.; Gottardi, F.; Nemoz, B.

2017-12-01

The aim of this communication is to present analyses of climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) observations, reconstructions (1900-2016) and scenarii (2020-2100) of a hundred of snow courses dissiminated within the french Alps. This issue became particularly important since a decade, in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production. As a water resources manager in french mountainuous regions, EDF (french hydropower company) has developed and managed a hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurments of a hundred of snow courses within the french Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to the snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow accumulation and melt model (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2016 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Considering various mountainous areas within the french Alps, this communication focuses on : (1) long term (1900-2016) analyses of variability and trend of total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length , (2) long term variability of hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Comparing historical period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2016), quantitative results within a region in the north Alps (Maurienne) shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season length by 15 days. These analyses will be extended from north to south

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

[Organizational climate and burnout syndrome].

Science.gov (United States)

Lubrańska, Anna

2011-01-01

The paper addresses the issue of organizational climate and burnout syndrome. It has been assumed that burnout syndrome is dependent on work climate (organizational climate), therefore, two concepts were analyzed: by D. Kolb (organizational climate) and by Ch. Maslach (burnout syndrome). The research involved 239 persons (122 woman, 117 men), aged 21-66. In the study Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) and Inventory of Organizational Climate were used. The results of statistical methods (correlation analysis, one-variable analysis of variance and regression analysis) evidenced a strong relationship between organizational climate and burnout dimension. As depicted by the results, there are important differences in the level of burnout between the study participants who work in different types of organizational climate. The results of the statistical analyses indicate that the organizational climate determines burnout syndrome. Therefore, creating supportive conditions at the workplace might reduce the risk of burnout.

Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

2016-12-01

The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

Climate and happiness

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rehdanz, Katrin [Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg (Germany); Maddison, David [Department of Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark)

2005-01-05

Climate is an important input to many human activities. Climate affects heating and cooling requirements, health, clothing and nutritional needs as well as recreational activities. As such, it is to be expected that individuals will have a preference for particular types of climate. This paper analyses a panel of 67 countries attempting to explain differences in self-reported levels of happiness by reference to, amongst other things, temperature and precipitation. Various indices are used for each of these variables, including means, extremes and the number of hot, cold, wet and dry months. Using a panel-corrected least squares approach, the paper demonstrates that, even when controlling for a range of other factors, climate variables have a highly significant effect on country-wide self-reported levels of happiness. On the basis of these results, it is determined that differential patterns of anthropogenically induced climate change might alter dramatically the distribution of happiness between nations, with some countries moving towards a preferred climate and others moving further away. We find that high-latitude countries included in our dataset might benefit from temperature changes. Countries already characterized by very high summer temperatures would most likely suffer losses from climate change.

Climate and happiness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehdanz, Katrin; Maddison, David

2005-01-01

Climate is an important input to many human activities. Climate affects heating and cooling requirements, health, clothing and nutritional needs as well as recreational activities. As such, it is to be expected that individuals will have a preference for particular types of climate. This paper analyses a panel of 67 countries attempting to explain differences in self-reported levels of happiness by reference to, amongst other things, temperature and precipitation. Various indices are used for each of these variables, including means, extremes and the number of hot, cold, wet and dry months. Using a panel-corrected least squares approach, the paper demonstrates that, even when controlling for a range of other factors, climate variables have a highly significant effect on country-wide self-reported levels of happiness. On the basis of these results, it is determined that differential patterns of anthropogenically induced climate change might alter dramatically the distribution of happiness between nations, with some countries moving towards a preferred climate and others moving further away. We find that high-latitude countries included in our dataset might benefit from temperature changes. Countries already characterized by very high summer temperatures would most likely suffer losses from climate change

Study on convective mixing for thermal striping phenomena. Thermal-hydraulic analyses on mixing process in parallel triple-jet and comparisons between numerical methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimura, Nobuyuki; Nishimura, Motohiko; Kamide, Hideki

2000-03-01

A quantitative evaluation on thermal striping, in which temperature fluctuation due to convective mixing among jets imposes thermal fatigue on structural components, is of importance for reactor safety. In the present study, a water experiment was performed on parallel triple-jet: cold jet at the center and hot jets in both sides. Three kinds of numerical analyses based on the finite difference method were carried out to compare the similarity with the experiment by use of respective different handling of turbulence such as a k-ε two equation turbulence model (k-ε Model), a low Reynolds number stress and heat flux equation model (LRSFM) and a direct numerical simulation (DNS). In the experiment, the jets were mainly mixed due to the coherent oscillation. The numerical result using k-ε Model could not reproduce the coherent oscillating motion of jets due to rolling-up fluid. The oscillations of the jets predicted by LRSFM and DNS were in good agreements with the experiment. The comparison between the coherent and random components in experimental temperature fluctuation obtained by using the phase-averaging shows that k-ε Model and LRSFM overestimated the random component and the coherent component respectively. The ratios of coherent to random components in total temperature fluctuation obtained from DNS were in good agreements with the experiment. The numerical analysis using DNS can reproduce the coherent oscillation of the jets and the coherent / random components in temperature fluctuation. The analysis using LRSFM could simulate the mixing process of the jets with the low frequency. (author)

CO/sub 2/, carbon cycle and climate interactions. Pt. 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Maier-Reimer, E; Degens, E T; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

1984-05-01

To assess the reaction of the climate system on increased CO/sub 2/ in the air either numerical atmospheric models have been used, or one has tried to filter a CO/sub 2/-induced climate trend (such as increasing temperature) from existing meteorological records. Even though a serious effect of increased CO/sub 2/ on climate has become highly probable, it has neither been empirically proven so far (diagnosis of observations) nor is the effect theoretically undisputed (prognosis by climate models).

OPEC's response to international climate agreements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braaten, J.; Golombek, R.

1998-01-01

This paper studies a game between a group of countries that have agreed to participate in an international climate agreement (the signatories) and OPEC. The purpose of the signatories is to design carbon taxes that maximize their total net income, given a goal on global carbon emissions. As a response to the climate agreement, OPEC imposes an oil tax on its member states that maximizes OPEC's profits. Within a numerical model we find the subgame-perfect equilibrium of a game in which each player chooses when to fix his decision variables. It is shown that in equilibrium the group of signatories chooses to be the leader and OPEC chooses to be the follower. It is demonstrated, however, that for both agents the order of move is of minor (numerical) importance. Hence, the players have limited incentives for strategic behaviour. 17 refs

Facing future climate change: is the past relevant?

Science.gov (United States)

Skinner, Luke

2008-12-28

From a socio-economic perspective, the 'sharp end' of climate research is very much about looking forward in time. As far as possible, we need to know what to expect and approximately when to expect it. However, it is argued here that our approach to climate change (including its scientific basis and its policy implications) is firmly linked to our understanding of the past. This is mainly due to the role played by palaeoclimate reconstructions in shaping our expectations of the climate system, in particular via their ability to test the accuracy of our climate models. Importantly, this includes the intuitive models that each of us carries around in our mind, as well as the more complex numerical models hiding inside supercomputers. It is through such models that palaeoclimate insights may affect the scientific and political judgements that we must make in the face of persistent and ultimately irreducible predictive uncertainty. Already we can demonstrate a great deal of confidence in our current understanding of the global climate system based specifically on insights from the geological record. If further advances are to be made effectively, climate models should take advantage of both past and present constraints on their behaviour, and should be given added credence to the extent that they are compatible with an increasingly rich tapestry of past climatic phenomena. Furthermore, palaeoclimate data should be accompanied by clearly defined uncertainties, and organized in arrays that are capable of speaking directly to numerical models, and their limitations in particular.

Numerical tools for musical instruments acoustics: analysing nonlinear physical models using continuation of periodic solutions

OpenAIRE

Karkar , Sami; Vergez , Christophe; Cochelin , Bruno

2012-01-01

International audience; We propose a new approach based on numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis for the study of physical models of instruments that produce self- sustained oscillation. Numerical continuation consists in following how a given solution of a set of equations is modified when one (or several) parameter of these equations are allowed to vary. Several physical models (clarinet, saxophone, and violin) are formulated as nonlinear dynamical systems, whose periodic solution...

Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

2016-01-01

Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

"Climate change" and vulnerability analysis: poor will become poorer

OpenAIRE

Ozer, Pierre

2013-01-01

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) considers new evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warme...

Cost-optimized climate stabilisation (OPTIKS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leimbach, Marian; Bauer, Nico; Baumstark, Lavinia; Edenhofer, Ottmar [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

2009-11-15

This study analyses the implications of suggestions for the design of post-2012 climate policy regimes on the basis of model simulations. The focus of the analysis, the determination of regional mitigation costs and the technological development in the energy sector, also considers the feedbacks of investment and trade decisions of the regions that are linked by different global markets for emission permits, goods and resources. The analysed policy regimes are primarily differentiated by their allocation of emission rights. Moreover, they represent alternative designs of an international cap and trade system that is geared to meet the 2 C climate target. The present study analyses ambitious climate protection scenarios that require drastic reduction policies (reductions of 60%-80% globally until 2050). Immediate and multilateral action is needed in such scenarios. Given the rather small variance of mitigation costs in major regions like UCA, Europe, MEA and China, a policy regime should be chosen that provides high incentives to join an international agreement for the remaining regions. From this perspective either the C and C scenario (incentive for Russia) is preferable or the multi-stage approach (incentive for Africa and India). (orig.)

Framework for multi-scale integrated impact analyses of climate change mitigation options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perez-Soba, M.; Parr, T.; Roupioz, L.F.S.; Winograd, M.; Peña-Claros, M.; Varela Ortega, C.; Ascarrunz, N.; Balvanera, P.; Bholanath, P.; Equihua, M.; Guerreiro, L.; Jones, L.; Maass, M.; Thonicke, K.

2013-01-01

Tropical forest ecosystems are hotspots for biodiversity and represent one of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks, making their role in climate change mitigation (CCM) programmes increasingly important (e.g. REDD+). In Latin America these ecosystems suffer from high land use pressures that have

Numerical simulation of Higgs models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaster, A.

1995-10-01

The SU(2) Higgs and the Schwinger model on the lattice were analysed. Numerical simulations of the SU(2) Higgs model were performed to study the finite temperature electroweak phase transition. With the help of the multicanonical method the distribution of an order parameter at the phase transition point was measured. This was used to obtain the order of the phase transition and the value of the interface tension with the histogram method. Numerical simulations were also performed at zero temperature to perform renormalization. The measured values for the Wilson loops were used to determine the static potential and from this the renormalized gauge coupling. The Schwinger model was simulated at different gauge couplings to analyse the properties of the Kaplan-Shamir fermions. The prediction that the mass parameter gets only multiplicative renormalization was tested and verified. (orig.)

Geopolitics of climate change: A review

OpenAIRE

Bošnjaković Branko

2012-01-01

The paper reviews the geopolitical elements of the emerging discourse on how to control, and cope with climate change. Two complementary approaches may be distinguished: the actor-related approach analyses the positioning of states and interest groups, which develop strategies on coping with climate change; the other approach addresses processes and problem areas (physical, economic, demographic…) emerging in the geographic space as a consequence of, or linked to climate change. With fa...

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley

Millifluidic droplet analyser for microbiology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baraban, L.; Bertholle, F.; Salverda, M.L.M.; Bremond, N.; Panizza, P.; Baudry, J.; Visser, de J.A.G.M.; Bibette, J.

2011-01-01

We present a novel millifluidic droplet analyser (MDA) for precisely monitoring the dynamics of microbial populations over multiple generations in numerous (=103) aqueous emulsion droplets (100 nL). As a first application, we measure the growth rate of a bacterial strain and determine the minimal

The butterfly and the tornado: chaos theory and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madrid, Carlos

2013-01-01

In this book, the author addresses two topics: the theory of chaos, and climate change. The first chapters propose a prehistory and history of chaos, from Newton, Laplace and Lorenz and their controversies as far as prehistory of chaos is concerned, and with different works performed during the twentieth century (Hadamard, Birkhoff, van der Pol, and so on, until Lorenz, the MIT meteorologist and the discovery of the Butterfly Effect, and more recent works by Yorke and Feigenbaum about the logistic equation and the transition to chaos) as far as recent history is concerned. The next chapter describes the deterministic chaos by introducing non linear dynamic systems and distinguishing three regimes: steady, periodic or chaotic. The second part addresses climate change, outlines that global warming is a reality, that the main origin is the increase of greenhouse effect, and that CO 2 emissions related to human activity are the main origin of this additional greenhouse effect. The author notably recalls the controversy about the analysis of the global average temperature curve, discusses the assessment of average temperatures from a statistical point of view and in relationship with the uneven distribution of survey stations. The last chapter discusses the numerical modelling of time and climate, and the validity of the Butterfly Effect. The author also proposes a brief overview of the IPCC, discusses the emergence of an international climate policy (UN convention, Kyoto protocol), evokes the use of game theory to ensure a convergence of treaties, and analyses the economic situation of several countries (including Spain) since the Kyoto protocol

Relationships between bullying, school climate, and student risk behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Jennifer; Cornell, Dewey; Konold, Timothy

2012-09-01

This study examined whether characteristics of a positive school climate were associated with lower student risk behavior in a sample of 3,687 high school students who completed the School Climate Bullying Survey and questions about risk behavior from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS). Confirmatory factor analyses established fit for 20 items with three hypothesized school climate scales measuring (1) prevalence of bullying and teasing; (2) aggressive attitudes; and (3) student willingness to seek help. Structural equation modeling established the relationship of these measures with student reports of risk behavior. Multigroup analyses identified differential effects across gender and race. A positive school climate could be an important protective factor in preventing student risk behavior.

The Impact of Climate on Holiday Destination Choice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bigano, A. [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan (Italy); Hamilton, J.M. [Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg (Germany); Tol, R.S.J. [Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2006-06-15

The holiday destination choice is analysed for tourists from 45 countries, representing all continents and all climates. Tourists are deterred by distance, political instability and poverty, and attracted to coasts. Tourists prefer countries with a sunny yet mild climate, shun climates that are too hot or too cold. A country's tourists' aversion for poverty and distance can be predicted by that country's average per capita income. The preferred holiday climate is the same for all tourists, independent of the home climate. However, tourists from hotter climates have more pronounced preferences.

GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

What is the Climate?

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.; Schertzer, D.

2009-04-01

Although meteorology and climatology are increasingly considered to be distinct sciences, the actual boundary between "climate scales" and "meteorological scales" is not clear and there are no universally accepted definitions. It is still hard to improve upon the old adage "the climate is what you expect, the weather is what you get". For example [Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, 2005], the National Academy of Science essentially accepts this ("Climate is conventionally defined as the long-term statistics of the weather") proposing only to expand the definition of climate to encompass the oceanic and terrestrial spheres as well as chemical components of the atmosphere. However the weather itself has nontrivial statistics so that the key weather/climate distinction depend on apparently subjective distinction between long-term and short-term statistics. In this talk, we give an objective basis to the weather/climate distinction with the help of an anisotropic space-time turbulence theory and both lidar satellite radiances, in situ spectra and numerical models of the atmosphere and reanalyses. We show that the latter accurately follow the predictions of multiplicative cascade models up to about 7-10 days. This marks the beginning of a weather/climate transition region which extends up to the cascade outer scale of about 20-30 days (depending somewhat on the atmospheric field), after which the climate regime begins. We bolster this interpretation by empirically constructing space-time (Stommel) diagrammes; we obtain near linear relations between time and (horizontal) space and theoretically predicted power law relations between the vertical and time up until the end of the weather regime (~10000 km in the horizontal, ~10 km in the vertical, ~10 days in time). We discuss the implications for weather, climate and climate trends.

National climate strategy. Finland. Government report to Parliament

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

At the session held in Kyoto in 1997, the Parties to the Climate Convention agreed on legally binding targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Under the so- called Kyoto Protocol, the Member States of the European Community and the European Union shall reduce their annual emissions by eight per cent annually during the years 2008-2012 compared to the 1990 level. Within the Community, the targets have been allotted among the Member States so that Finland's annual greenhouse gas emissions may amount on average to no more than the 1990 level during the commitment period 2008-2012. This National Climate Strategy, submitted to Parliament in the form of a Government report, contains the principles, targets and measures that the Government finds necessary in order to meet our national target. The background material for the strategy consists of sector-specific reports made by the various ministries. The ministerial working group has coordinated the preparation of the strategy. For the strategy, the ministries have carried out and commissioned numerous separate analyses and studies, the reports of which have been published in the course of preparing the strategy. Based on these end the sector-specific reports, a background report to the National Climate Programme entitled 'The Need for and Possibilities of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Finland' was compiled for the ministerial working group. The report was co-ordinated by the Kyoto contact network composed of civil servants from the various ministries. The report describes in more detail the factors influencing economic growth, energy consumption and production, and other elements affecting the development of greenhouse gases, which were used as underlying assumptions when determining the recommendations for action under the strategy. The economic and other effects of alternative courses of action were also analysed and described in the above-mentioned background study. It has been published in the Internet on

Numerical

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Boumaza

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Transient convection heat transfer is of fundamental interest in many industrial and environmental situations, as well as in electronic devices and security of energy systems. Transient fluid flow problems are among the more difficult to analyze and yet are very often encountered in modern day technology. The main objective of this research project is to carry out a theoretical and numerical analysis of transient convective heat transfer in vertical flows, when the thermal field is due to different kinds of variation, in time and space of some boundary conditions, such as wall temperature or wall heat flux. This is achieved by the development of a mathematical model and its resolution by suitable numerical methods, as well as performing various sensitivity analyses. These objectives are achieved through a theoretical investigation of the effects of wall and fluid axial conduction, physical properties and heat capacity of the pipe wall on the transient downward mixed convection in a circular duct experiencing a sudden change in the applied heat flux on the outside surface of a central zone.

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Climate Change and employment. Impact on employment in the European Union-25 of climate change and CO2 emission reduction measures by 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dupressoir, S.; Belen Sanchez, A.; Bobe, P.; Hoefele, V. (and others)

2007-05-15

This study was intended provide an analysis of the potential costs and benefits for employment of the policies and measures against climate change as well as of the manifestations of the consequences of climate change in Europe. This report comprises two divisions. The first, entitled 'Impact of climate change', attempts to determine the potential impact on employment in Europe of the consequences of climate change (Part 1). The second, entitled 'Impact of CO2 emission reduction measures', analyses the potential implications for employment of climate-change prevention policies in the EU with time-horizons of 2012 and 2030 (Parts 2 to 4). The conclusions and recommendations of the study appear in four parts : Part 1 analyses the potential consequences for employment of climatic warming in Europe; Part 2 presents the objectives, the hypotheses and the methodology of the 'impact of CO2 emission reduction measures' division; Part 3 analyses the foreseeable effects of CO2 emission reduction measures on employment in Europe; Part 4 offers general (or sector-wide) recommendations for measures and policies to promote positive effects and prevent negative effects. The concluding part discusses the uncertainties and identifies the questions deserving further investigation.

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Jezkova, Tereza

2016-01-01

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. PMID:27881748

Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Nicole E.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Ackerly, David; Weiss, Stuart; Recinos, Amanda; Branciforte, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Micheli, Elisabeth

2015-01-01

consistently show greater climate stability than homogenous areas. The analysis suggests that utilizing high-resolution climate and hydrological data in conservation planning improves the likely resilience of biodiversity to climate change. We used these analyses to suggest new conservation priorities for the San Francisco Bay Area.

Climate engineering and space

Science.gov (United States)

Schrogl, K.-U.; Summerer, L.

2016-12-01

This article provides a comprehensive look at climate engineering and space. Its starting point is that the States are failing to slow down global warming. The consequences for the environment and the economic and societal burden are uncontested. The priority to maintain the use of fossil resources might soon lead to the implementation of deliberate engineering measures to alter the climate instead of reducing the greenhouse gases. The article describes these currently discussed measures for such climate engineering. It will particularly analyse the expected contributions from space to these concepts. Based on this it evaluates the economic and political implications and finally tests the conformity of these concepts with space law.

Tertiary climatic fluctuations and methods of analysis of tertiary floras

Science.gov (United States)

Wolfe, J.A.

1971-01-01

On theoretical grounds, an analysis of the physiognomy of a Tertiary leaf assemblage is more direct and reliable than a circuitous floristic analysis in assigning thermal regimes to fossil assemblages. Using primarily foliar physiognomy and secondarily floristic composition, it can be shown that: (1) some middle latitude Tertiary assemblages probably lived under meteoroligically tropical climates; (2) a major and rapid climatic deterioration occurred in the Oligocene; and (3) a major climatic fluctuation probably occurred in the Late Eocene. These analyses thus substantiate the conclusions of several other paleobotanists regarding climatic fluctuations. Recent criticisms of these analyses are shown to be invalid and to be based largely on misinterpretations. ?? 1971.

Improving Climate Science Education by Supporting Faculty: Climate Programs from On the Cutting Edge

Science.gov (United States)

Wiese, K.; Kirk, K. B.; Manduca, C. A.; Shellito, L. J.; Sztein, E.; Bruckner, M. Z.

2011-12-01

Students arrive in our classrooms with a wide range of viewpoints on climate change. Some carry misconceptions resulting from media portrayal of the subject; others have strong feelings about the policy of climate change that overshadow their understanding of the science; while some already grasp the basics of climate science and are thirsty for a more in-depth treatment. In any of these cases, the topic of climate change is likely to be of high interest to students and will challenge faculty to be well-versed in the science, the policy, and in effective pedagogic strategies. The On the Cutting Edge project continues its emphasis on climate science, climate change and energy resources with ongoing professional development events. An underlying theme of all of these events is to help faculty be more effective teachers by providing up-to-date science, examples of promising pedagogies and a forum to network with others who teach similar subjects. A monthly webinar and book club series about teaching climate and energy was offered throughout the 2010-2011 academic year. These one-hour events allowed faculty a convenient way to learn about science topics such as carbon capture and storage, nuclear energy, thermohaline circulation, alternative energy, or the energy-water nexus. Some of the webinars focused on pedagogic approaches, including teaching with climate models, dealing with misconceptions, or using local energy issues for a semester-long jigsaw project. Webinar participants reported that they could expand their teaching to include these topics, they increased their comfort level in presenting those subjects and answering student questions, and they learned where to turn for additional references. An online workshop, Teaching about Earth's Climate Using Data and Numerical Models, was held in October 2010. Participants learned about different types of models, the strategies for teaching with models and how to use online datasets. The workshop also provided

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): Open Access to a Climate Data Store

Science.gov (United States)

Thepaut, Jean-Noel; Dee, Dick

2016-04-01

In November 2014, The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signed an agreement with the European Commission to deliver two of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Services on the Commission's behalf. The ECMWF delivered services - the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) - will bring a consistent standard to how we monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and climate change. They will maximise the potential of past, current and future earth observations - ground, ocean, airborne, satellite - and analyse these to monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and in the future, climate change. With the wealth of free and open data that the services provide, they will help business users to assess the impact of their business decisions and make informed choices, delivering a more energy efficient and climate aware economy. These sound investment decisions now will not only stimulate growth in the short term, but reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and society in the future. C3S is in its proof of concept phase and through its Climate Data Store will provide • global and regional climate data reanalyses; • multi-model seasonal forecasts; • customisable visual data to enable examination of wide range of scenarios and model the impact of changes; • access to all the underlying data, including climate data records from various satellite and in-situ observations. In addition, C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers). The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of economic sectors. At the heart of the Service is the provision of open access to a one stop shop (the Climate Data Store) of climate data and modelling, analysing more than 20 Essential Climate Variables to build a global picture of our past, present and future climate and developing

Influence of clouds on earth climate. Modellings, measurements, and data analyses within the framework of an interconnected project; Einfluss von Wolken auf das Klima der Erde. Modellierungen, Messungen, Datenanalysen im Rahmen eines Verbundprojektes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Raschke, E

1995-11-01

At the beginning of the project there was considerable uncertainty as to the influence of clouds of all kinds on the energy budget of the atmosphere, the quantities and impact of aerosols, and, especially, the physics of high curl clouds. There was neither a possibility to model such cloud systems, nor did reliable measuring methods exist. This interconnected project contributed to the solution of these problems with the aim to create a solid basis of work for future climate researches. Simultaneously, measurements were carried out, satellite data analysed, aerosol data by different authors compiled and evaluated, and numerical simulations of cloud sheets carried out. (orig.) [Deutsch] Zu Beginn des Vorhabens herrschten erhebliche Unsicherheiten ueber den Einfluss von Wolken aller Arten auf den Energiehaushalt der Atmosphaere, ueber die Mengen und Wirkungen des Aerosols - und insbesondere ueber die Physik der hohen Cirren. Es gab keine Modelliermoeglichkeiten fuer solche Wolkensysteme - noch existierten zuverlaessige Messmoeglichkeiten. Das Verbundvorhaben sollte zur Loesung dieser Probleme beitragen mit dem Ziel, eine solide Arbeitsbasis fuer zukuenftige Aufgaben der Klimaforschung zu schaffen. Es wurden gleichzeitig Messungen durchgefuehrt, Satellitendaten analysiert, Aerosoldaten unterschiedlicher Autoren zusammengetragen und geprueft sowie numerische Simulationen von Wolkenfeldern durchgefuehrt. (orig.)

The representation of low-level clouds during the West African monsoon in weather and climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Kniffka, Anke; Hannak, Lisa; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas

2016-04-01

The West African monsoon is one of the most important large-scale circulation features in the tropics and the associated seasonal rainfalls are crucial to rain-fed agriculture and water resources for hundreds of millions of people. However, numerical weather and climate models still struggle to realistically represent salient features of the monsoon across a wide range of scales. Recently it has been shown that substantial errors in radiation and clouds exist in the southern parts of West Africa (8°W-8°E, 5-10°N) during summer. This area is characterised by strong low-level jets associated with the formation of extensive ultra-low stratus clouds. Often persisting long after sunrise, these clouds have a substantial impact on the radiation budget at the surface and thus the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we present some first results from a detailed analysis of the representation of these clouds and the associated PBL features across a range of weather and climate models. Recent climate model simulations for the period 1991-2010 run in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) offer a great opportunity for this analysis. The models are those used for the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but for YOTC the model output has a much better temporal resolution, allowing to resolve the diurnal cycle, and includes diabatic terms, allowing to much better assess physical reasons for errors in low-level temperature, moisture and thus cloudiness. These more statistical climate model analyses are complemented by experiments using ICON (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model), the new numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ICON allows testing sensitivities to model resolution and numerical schemes. These model simulations are validated against (re-)analysis data, satellite observations (e.g. CM SAF cloud and

Providing the climatic component in human-climate interaction studies: 550,000 years of climate history in the Chew Bahir basin, a key HSPDP site in southern Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Foerster, V. E.; Asrat, A.; Bronk Ramsey, C.; Chapot, M. S.; Cohen, A. S.; Dean, J. R.; Deocampo, D.; Deino, A. L.; Guenter, C.; Junginger, A.; Lamb, H. F.; Leng, M. J.; Roberts, H. M.; Schaebitz, F.; Trauth, M. H.

2017-12-01

As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has cored six predominantly lacustrine archives of climate change spanning much of the last 3.5 Ma in eastern Africa. All six sites in Ethiopia and Kenya are adjacent to key paleoanthropological sites encompassing diverse milestones in human evolution, dispersal, and technological innovation. The 280 m-long Chew Bahir sediment core, recovered from a tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014, covers the past 550 ka of environmental history, an interval marked by intense climatic changes and includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. We present the outcome of lithologic and stratigraphic investigations, first interpretations of high resolution MSCL and XRF scanning data, and initial results of detailed multi-indicator analysis of the Chew Bahir cores. These analyses are based on more than 14,000 discrete samples, including grain size analyses and X-ray diffraction. An initial chronology, based on Ar/Ar and OSL dating, allows temporal calibration of our reconstruction of dry-wet cycles. Both geochemical and sedimentological data show that the Chew Bahir deposits are sensitive recorders of climate change on millennial to centennial timescales. Initial statistical analyses identify phases marked by abrupt climatic changes, whereas several long-term wet-dry oscillations reveal variations mostly in the precession ( 15-25 kyr), but also in the obliquity ( 40 kyr) and eccentricity frequency bands ( 90-120 kyr). The Chew Bahir record will help decode climate variation on several different time scales, as a consequence of orbitally-driven high-latitude glacial-interglacial shifts and variations in greenhouse gases, Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures, as well as local solar irradiance. This 550 ka record of environmental change in eastern

An overview of European efforts in generating climate data records

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Su, Z.; Timmermans, W.J.; Zeng, Y.; Schulz, J.; John, V.O.; Roebeling, R.A.; Poli, P.; Tan, D.; Kaspar, F.; Kaiser-Weiss, A.; Swinnen, E.; Tote, C.; Gregow, H.; Manninen, T.; Riihela, A.; Calvet, J.C.; Ma, Yaoming; Wen, Jun

2018-01-01

The Coordinating Earth Observation Data Validation for Reanalysis for Climate Services project (CORE-CLIMAX) aimed to substantiate how Copernicus observations and products can contribute to climate change analyses. CORE-CLIMAX assessed the European capability to provide climate data records (CDRs)

The Politics of Climate Change: Can a Deal be Done?

OpenAIRE

Tobin, Paul

2015-01-01

The Paris climate conference in December 2015 has been heralded as a crucial opportunity for achieving global agreement on climate change. Paul Tobin analyses the structure of these negotiations and identifies the key barriers to striking a deal on climate change.

Development of the computer code system for the analyses of PWR core

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsujimoto, Iwao; Naito, Yoshitaka.

1992-11-01

This report is one of the materials for the work titled 'Development of the computer code system for the analyses of PWR core phenomena', which is performed under contracts between Shikoku Electric Power Company and JAERI. In this report, the numerical method adopted in our computer code system are described, that is, 'The basic course and the summary of the analysing method', 'Numerical method for solving the Boltzmann equation', 'Numerical method for solving the thermo-hydraulic equations' and 'Description on the computer code system'. (author)

Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-12-01

Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

Etude Climat no. 40 'The contribution of European forest to climate change mitigation'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, Frederic; Bellassen, Valentin; Deheza, Mariana

2013-01-01

Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: In a framework where no common forestry policy exists at the EU level (such as the Common Agriculture Policy for agriculture), this report lists EU policies that have an impact on climate change mitigation that can be achieved by the forestry sector. With the objective of analyzing the coherence of these policies, we have established a typology and a hierarchy firstly by laying out the legal status and the financial and institutional resources associated with each policy, and secondly by reviewing the objectives of each policy in regards to climate change mitigation in the forestry sector. We finally analyze potentials synergies and conflicts between them

Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...

Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

2017-12-01

Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

2015-09-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

2015-09-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Preliminary evaluation of techniques for transforming regional climate model output to the potential repository site in support of Yucca Mountain future climate synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Behl, Y.K.

1995-06-01

The report describes a preliminary evaluation of models for transforming regional climate model output from a regional to a local scale for the Yucca Mountain area. Evaluation and analysis of both empirical and numerical modeling are discussed which is aimed at providing site-specific, climate-based information for use by interfacing activities. Two semiempirical approaches are recommended for further analysis

Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2009-01-01

The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the...

Emissions Trading Regimes and Incentives to Participate in International Climate Agreements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchner, B.; Carraro, C.

2003-11-01

This paper analyses whether different emissions trading regimes provide different incentives to participate in a cooperative climate agreement. Different incentive structures are discussed for those countries, namely the US, Russia and China, that are most important in the climate negotiation process. Our analysis confirms the conjecture that, by appropriately designing the emission trading regime, it is possible to enhance the incentives to participate in a climate agreement. Therefore, participation and optimal policy should be jointly analysed. Moreover, our results show that the US, Russia and China have different most preferred climate coalitions and therefore adopt conflicting negotiation strategies

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2010-12-15

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

Mathematical and numerical foundations of turbulence models and applications

CERN Document Server

Chacón Rebollo, Tomás

2014-01-01

With applications to climate, technology, and industry, the modeling and numerical simulation of turbulent flows are rich with history and modern relevance. The complexity of the problems that arise in the study of turbulence requires tools from various scientific disciplines, including mathematics, physics, engineering, and computer science. Authored by two experts in the area with a long history of collaboration, this monograph provides a current, detailed look at several turbulence models from both the theoretical and numerical perspectives. The k-epsilon, large-eddy simulation, and other models are rigorously derived and their performance is analyzed using benchmark simulations for real-world turbulent flows. Mathematical and Numerical Foundations of Turbulence Models and Applications is an ideal reference for students in applied mathematics and engineering, as well as researchers in mathematical and numerical fluid dynamics. It is also a valuable resource for advanced graduate students in fluid dynamics,...

Climate Action Benefits: Health

Science.gov (United States)

This page provides background on the relationship between human health and climate change and describes what the CIRA Health analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Air Quality, Extreme Temperature, Labor, and Water Quality.

Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pryor, Sara; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Clausen, Niels-Erik

2012-01-01

Regional Climate Models. Additionally, internal (inherent) variability and initial conditions exert a strong impact on projected wind climates throughout the twenty-first century. Simulations of wind gusts by one of the RCMs (RCA3) indicate some evidence for increased magnitudes (of up to +10...... be used in interpreting this inference given the high degree of wind climate projection spread that derives from the specific AOGCM and RCM used in the downscaling....

Controls on Mississippi Valley-Type Zn-Pb mineralization in Behabad district, Central Iran: Constraints from spatial and numerical analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Parsa, Mohammad; Maghsoudi, Abbas

2018-04-01

The Behabad district, located in the central Iranian microcontinent, contains numerous epigenetic stratabound carbonate-hosted Zn-Pb ore bodies. The mineralizations formed as fault, fracture and karst fillings in the Permian-Triassic formations, especially in Middle Triassic dolostones, and comprise mainly non-sulfides zinc ores. These are all interpreted as Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) base metal deposits. From an economic geological point of view, it is imperative to recognize the processes that have plausibly controlled the emplacement of MVT Zn-Pb mineralization in the Behabad district. To address the foregoing issue, analyses of the spatial distribution of mineral deposits comprising fry and fractal techniques and analysis of the spatial association of mineral deposits with geological features using distance distribution analysis were applied to assess the regional-scale processes that could have operated in the distribution of MVT Zn-Pb deposits in the district. The obtained results based on these analytical techniques show the main trends of the occurrences are NW-SE and NE-SW, which are parallel or subparallel to the major northwest and northeast trending faults, supporting the idea that these particular faults could have acted as the main conduits for transport of mineral-bearing fluids. The results of these analyses also suggest that Permian-Triassic brittle carbonate sedimentary rocks have served as the lithological controls on MVT mineralization in the Behabad district as they are spatially and temporally associated with mineralization.

Climate Services to Improve Public Health

Science.gov (United States)

Jancloes, Michel; Thomson, Madeleine; Costa, María Máñez; Hewitt, Chris; Corvalan, Carlos; Dinku, Tufa; Lowe, Rachel; Hayden, Mary

2014-01-01

A high level expert panel discussed how climate and health services could best collaborate to improve public health. This was on the agenda of the recent Third International Climate Services Conference, held in Montego Bay, Jamaica, 4–6 December 2013. Issues and challenges concerning a demand led approach to serve the health sector needs, were identified and analysed. Important recommendations emerged to ensure that innovative collaboration between climate and health services assist decision-making processes and the management of climate-sensitive health risk. Key recommendations included: a move from risk assessment towards risk management; the engagement of the public health community with both the climate sector and development sectors, whose decisions impact on health, particularly the most vulnerable; to increase operational research on the use of policy-relevant climate information to manage climate- sensitive health risks; and to develop in-country capacities to improve local knowledge (including collection of epidemiological, climate and socio-economic data), along with institutional interaction with policy makers. PMID:24776719

Norwegian climate research. An evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-06-15

[English] In early 2011, the Norwegian Research Council (RCN) appointed a committee to review Norwegian climate research. The aim of the evaluation was to provide a critical review of Norwegian climate research in an international perspective and to recommend measures to enhance the quality, efficiency and relevance of future climate research. The Evaluation Committee met three times: in August and December 2011, and March 2012. RCN sent an invitation to 140 research organisations to participate by delivering background information on their climate research. Based on the initial response, 48 research units were invited to submit self-assessments and 37 research units responded. These were invited to hearings during the second meeting of the Evaluation Committee in December. In our judgement, a great majority of the most active research units are covered by this evaluation report. It should be emphasised that the evaluation concerned the Norwegian landscape of climate research rather than individual scientists or research units. Bibliometric analyses and social network analyses provided additional information. We are aware of problems in making comparisons across disciplinary publishing traditions, especially with regard to the differences between the natural and social sciences and the humanities. The Evaluation Committee also reviewed a number of governmental and RCN policy documents and conducted interviews with the chairs of the NORKLIMA Programme Steering Board and the Norwegian IPY Committee, as well as with staff members of RCN. Additional information was received from hearings organised by RCN with the science communities and various stakeholders in January 2012. For the purpose of this evaluation, climate research was divided into three broad thematic areas: 1. The climate system and climate change: research on climate variability and change in order to improve our capability of understanding climate and of projecting climate change for different time

The climate crisis calls for a new educational era

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mehlsen, Camilla

2009-01-01

The International Alliance of Leading Education Institutes is analysing the role that education ought to play in a world struggling with climate change. Professor Jeppe Læssøe talks about the initial findings.......The International Alliance of Leading Education Institutes is analysing the role that education ought to play in a world struggling with climate change. Professor Jeppe Læssøe talks about the initial findings....

The influence of authentic leadership on safety climate in nursing.

Science.gov (United States)

Dirik, Hasan Fehmi; Seren Intepeler, Seyda

2017-07-01

This study analysed nurses' perceptions of authentic leadership and safety climate and examined the contribution of authentic leadership to the safety climate. It has been suggested and emphasised that authentic leadership should be used as a guidance to ensure quality care and the safety of patients and health-care personnel. This predictive study was conducted with 350 nurses in three Turkish hospitals. The data were collected using the Authentic Leadership Questionnaire and the Safety Climate Survey and analysed using hierarchical regression analysis. The mean authentic leadership perception and the safety climate scores of the nurses were 2.92 and 3.50, respectively. The percentage of problematic responses was found to be less than 10% for only four safety climate items. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that authentic leadership significantly predicted the safety climate. Procedural and political improvements are required in terms of the safety climate in institutions, where the study was conducted, and authentic leadership increases positive perceptions of safety climate. Exhibiting the characteristics of authentic leadership, or improving them and reflecting them on to personnel can enhance the safety climate. Planning information sharing meetings to raise the personnel's awareness of safety climate and systemic improvements can contribute to creating safe care climates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forest adaptation resources: Climate change tools and approaches for land managers

Science.gov (United States)

Chris Swanston; Maria, eds. Janowiak

2012-01-01

The forests of northern Wisconsin, a defining feature of the region's landscape, are expected to undergo numerous changes in response to the changing climate. This document provides a collection of resources designed to help forest managers incorporate climate change considerations into management and devise adaptation tactics. It was developed in northern...

A numerical simulation of climate changes during the obliquity cycle on Mars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francois, L.M.; Walker, J.C.G.; Kuhn, W.R.

1990-01-01

A one-dimensional seasonal energy balance climate model has been developed for the Martian surface and coupled to a model of CO 2 distribution between atmosphere, regolith, and polar caps. This model takes into account the greenhouse warming of carbon dioxide, the meridional transport of heat, the CO 2 condensation and sublimation cycle, and its adsorption in the regolith. The model takes into consideration the diurnal variation of solar irradiation, since it is shown that disregard of this effect yields temperatures too high by several degrees. The yearly-averaged temperatures calculated from this climate model at different obliquities are used to estimate the importance of CO 2 exchanges between the regolith and atmosphere-cap systems during the obliquity cycle. For this purpose, the equation of thermal diffusion into the ground is solved for each latitude belt. The results differ substantially from those of previous studies, due in part to the consideration of the diurnal and seasonal variations of the solar irradiance. The model shows the importance of taking these short-period variations into account instead of using yearly-averaged quantities, due to the strong nonlinearity of the climate system on Mars. The roles of meridional heat transport and greenhouse warming are analyzed and shown to be important. For example, a permanent polar cap of carbon dioxide is destroyed by heat transport when the obliquity is high, while at low obliquity, high-pressure systems without permanent cap can exist if enough exchangeable carbon dioxide is available. Further, the results show the possible existence of hysteresis cycles in the formation and sublimation of permanent deposits during the course of the obliquity cycle

Numerical analysis of pipe impact on reinforced concrete structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prinja, N.K.

1990-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and the results of numerical analyses carried out by using the computer code DYNA3D to analyse pipe impacts on a reinforced concrete slab, a floor beam and a column. Modelling techniques employed to represent various features of typical reinforced concrete (RC) structures and the details of a soil and crushable foam type of material model used to represent concrete material behaviour are described. The results show that a reasonable prediction of global behaviour of reinforced concrete structures under impact loading can be obtained by this numerical method. (author)

Investing in Climate Change. Dutch Banks Compared

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buurgaard Nielsen, J.; Pols, D.; Van Gelder, J.W.; Denie, S.; Scheire, C.

2007-06-01

This report is the first comparison of the climate change performance of Dutch banks that analyses the actual investments of these banks. It reviews a substantial share of each bank's portfolio, according to three criteria: how much they invest in the main cause of climate change, fossil fuels; how much they invest in the main alternative to fossil fuels, renewable energy; the bank's plans and policies to limit their contribution to climate change

Species distributions and climate change - linking the past and the future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levinsky, Irina

Climate change is predicted to have a marked impact on biodiversity, and changes in the distributions of numerous species have already been correlated with ongoing climate change. Climatic oscillations, however, were also the rule during the Pleistocene, and a look to the past may therefore shed ...... conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum, explore surrogates for the dispersal ability of African starlings and critically assess the tools I use and the assumptions behind them....

rpe v5: an emulator for reduced floating-point precision in large numerical simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Andrew; Düben, Peter D.

2017-06-01

This paper describes the rpe (reduced-precision emulator) library which has the capability to emulate the use of arbitrary reduced floating-point precision within large numerical models written in Fortran. The rpe software allows model developers to test how reduced floating-point precision affects the result of their simulations without having to make extensive code changes or port the model onto specialized hardware. The software can be used to identify parts of a program that are problematic for numerical precision and to guide changes to the program to allow a stronger reduction in precision.The development of rpe was motivated by the strong demand for more computing power. If numerical precision can be reduced for an application under consideration while still achieving results of acceptable quality, computational cost can be reduced, since a reduction in numerical precision may allow an increase in performance or a reduction in power consumption. For simulations with weather and climate models, savings due to a reduction in precision could be reinvested to allow model simulations at higher spatial resolution or complexity, or to increase the number of ensemble members to improve predictions. rpe was developed with a particular focus on the community of weather and climate modelling, but the software could be used with numerical simulations from other domains.

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

Science.gov (United States)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

On the efficiency gains of emissions trading when climate deals are non-cooperative

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Holtsmark, Bjart

2011-07-15

This paper studies, in a numerical environment, climate treaties with emissions trading when national quotas result from strategic individual choice. We find that the larger the number of parties to the deal, the smaller are the emissions reductions and the lower the welfare. If insisting on stability with respect to participation, climate treaties involve few parties and yield practically no emissions reductions. While these results contrast with some optimistic studies, our numerical example conforms established results if modelling the problem in the more traditional sense. (Author)

Global post-Kyoto scenario analyses at PSI

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kypreos, S [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

1999-08-01

Scenario analyses are described here using the Global MARKAL-Macro Trade (GMMT) model to study the economic implications of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Convention on Climate change. Some conclusions are derived in terms of efficient implementations of the post-Kyoto extensions of the Protocol. (author) 2 figs., 5 refs.

Global post-Kyoto scenario analyses at PSI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kypreos, S.

1999-01-01

Scenario analyses are described here using the Global MARKAL-Macro Trade (GMMT) model to study the economic implications of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Convention on Climate change. Some conclusions are derived in terms of efficient implementations of the post-Kyoto extensions of the Protocol. (author) 2 figs., 5 refs

Climate change impacts on runoff and hydropower in the Nordic countries. Final report from the project 'Climate change and energy production'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roar Saelthun, N.; Aittoniemi, P.; Bergstroem, S.

1998-01-01

The Nordic research program 'Climate change and energy production' has been carried out in co-operation between the Nordic hydrological services and the Nordic hydroelectric power industry with funding from the Nordic Council of Ministers and participating institutions. The program has been running for the period 1991-1996. The main objective of the research program was to analyse the effects of a future global climate change on the Nordic system for hydroelectric power production due to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The main parts of the program have been: A. Testing and improvements of hydrological models, with special emphasis on evapotranspiration, snow melt and glacier mass balance submodels. B. Assessment of the capability of existing energy planning models to analyse climate change impacts. C. Establishment of state-of-art scenarios for meteorological variables. Estimation of runoff scenarios. D. Analysis of climate change impacts on electricity consumption. E. Analysis of impacts on the hydropower systems, on national and regional scale, including effects on floods and dam safety issues. F. Analysis of climatic variability and climatic trends of hydrological records, including annual, seasonal and extreme values. (au) 171 refs

Forest Adaptation Resources: climate change tools and approaches for land managers, 2nd edition

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Abigail Derby Lewis; Kimberly Hall; Robert T. Fahey; Lydia Scott; Angela Kerber; Jason W. Miesbauer; Lindsay. Darling

2016-01-01

Forests across the United States are expected to undergo numerous changes in response to the changing climate. This second edition of the Forest Adaptation Resources provides a collection of resources designed to help forest managers incorporate climate change considerations into management and devise adaptation tactics. It was developed as part of the Climate Change...

Climate justice : three roads towards a sustainable future

OpenAIRE

Sundqvist, Max

2017-01-01

In this I will explore the ethical challenge of global climate change by analysing three accounts of how responsibility for climate change should be distributed. I explore why it is valuable to view climate change as part of a bigger ethical problem of resources, distribution and global justice. Furthermore, I will argue that a road towards change by a cosmo political theory of justice is the most reasonable option. The theme of my argumentation is that the challenge of global climate change ...

Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain Using Analogue Meteorological Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faybishenko, Boris

2005-01-01

At Yucca Mountain, NV, future changes in climatic conditions will probably alter net infiltration, drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile, or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop a semiempirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analog meteorological stations, for interglacial(present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region; and (2) corroborate the computed net infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. This study approached calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation effectiveness indices using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate, following a power law relationship between net infiltration and precipitation. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties associated with selecting climate analog sites, using relatively short analog meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and run-on on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenically induced climate changes

Climate governance, rural livelihoods and social networks : Using the ecosystem service governance approach to analyse climate adaptation and resource conflict resolution in Kenya

OpenAIRE

Wambui Ngaruiya, G.

2014-01-01

No doubt impacts from climate change on natural resources threaten achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. But of more concern is the controversial “climate-conflicts nexus” theory which paints a grim future as resources become scarcer in Africa. Though some scientists believe that this popular theory is biased, there is an evident knowledge gap on successful adaptation strategies currently sustaining rural livelihoods across the Sub-Sahara. Moreover, poorly coordinated “adaptation e...

Climate projections in the Hornsund area, Southern Spitsbergen

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Osuch Marzena

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to provide an estimation of climate variability in the Hornsund area in Southern Spitsbergen in the period 1976-2100. The climatic variables were obtained from the Polar-CORDEX initiative in the form of time series of daily air temperature and precipitation derived from four global circulation models (GCMs following representative concentration pathways (RCP RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. In the first stage of the analysis, simulations for the reference period from 1979 to 2005 were compared with observations at the Polish Polar Station Hornsund from the same period of time. In the second step, climatic projections were derived and monthly and annual means/sums were analysed as climatic indices. Following the standard methods of trend analysis, the changes of these indices over three time periods - the reference period 1976-2005, the near-future period 2021-2050, and far-future period 2071-2100 - were examined. The projections of air temperature were consistent. All analysed climate models simulated an increase of air temperature with time. Analyses of changes at a monthly scale indicated that the largest increases were estimated for winter months (more than 11°C for the far future using the RCP 8.5 scenario. The analyses of monthly and annual sums of precipitation also indicated increasing tendencies for changes with time, with the differences between mean monthly sums of precipitation for the near future and the reference period similar for each months. In the case of changes between far future and reference periods, the highest increases were projected for the winter months.

OPEC`s response to international climate agreements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Braaten, J.; Golombek, R.

1996-03-01

This publication studies a game between a group of countries that have agreed to participate in an international climate agreement (the signatories) and OPEC. The task of the signatories is to design carbon taxes that maximize their total net income, given a goal on global carbon emissions. In response to the climate agreement, OPEC imposes an oil tax on its member states that maximizes OPEC`s profits. Within a numerical model, the subgame-perfect equilibrium of a game is found in which each player chooses when to fix his decision variables. It is shown that, in equilibrium, the group of signatories chooses to be the leader and OPEC chooses to be the follower. It is demonstrated, however, that for both agents the order of move is of minor (numerical) importance. Hence, the players have limited incentives for strategic behaviour. 15 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

Climate Change and Maize Production: Empirical Evidence from ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Madukwe

been argued for as major reasons for global climate change. IPCC (2007) confirmed global fluctuations in ... examine adaptation strategies for climate change; and analyse fishers' livelihoods and adaptive capacity. ... (vii) Average annual income from fishing: Respondents were asked to state their income from fishing. 2.

International climate protection legislation. The way towards a global climate agreement in the sense of common but differentiated responsibility; Internationales Klimaschutzrecht. Der Weg zu einem Weltklimavertrag im Sinne von gemeinsamer, aber differenzierter Verantwortlichkeit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jahrmarkt, Lena

2016-07-01

Climate Change is one of the most important issues in the 21st century. Its extensive impacts regarding society, policy, economy and environment and its threats require an effective reaction at the international level. But does the newly adopted Paris Agreement comply to the expectations? Or how could an effective Climate Agreement be achieved to meet climate effectiveness and climate justice? To answer these questions this study analyses the development of international climate change law in a comprehensive way. In combination with analysing the principle of common, but differentiated responsibility it is possible to present new aspects for a climate Agreement by learning from failures of the past and embracing the raising threat brought about by climate change.

Combined analytical and numerical approaches in Dynamic Stability analyses of engineering systems

Science.gov (United States)

Náprstek, Jiří

2015-03-01

Dynamic Stability is a widely studied area that has attracted many researchers from various disciplines. Although Dynamic Stability is usually associated with mechanics, theoretical physics or other natural and technical disciplines, it is also relevant to social, economic, and philosophical areas of our lives. Therefore, it is useful to occasionally highlight the general aspects of this amazing area, to present some relevant examples and to evaluate its position among the various branches of Rational Mechanics. From this perspective, the aim of this study is to present a brief review concerning the Dynamic Stability problem, its basic definitions and principles, important phenomena, research motivations and applications in engineering. The relationships with relevant systems that are prone to stability loss (encountered in other areas such as physics, other natural sciences and engineering) are also noted. The theoretical background, which is applicable to many disciplines, is presented. In this paper, the most frequently used Dynamic Stability analysis methods are presented in relation to individual dynamic systems that are widely discussed in various engineering branches. In particular, the Lyapunov function and exponent procedures, Routh-Hurwitz, Liénard, and other theorems are outlined together with demonstrations. The possibilities for analytical and numerical procedures are mentioned together with possible feedback from experimental research and testing. The strengths and shortcomings of these approaches are evaluated together with examples of their effective complementing of each other. The systems that are widely encountered in engineering are presented in the form of mathematical models. The analyses of their Dynamic Stability and post-critical behaviour are also presented. The stability limits, bifurcation points, quasi-periodic response processes and chaotic regimes are discussed. The limit cycle existence and stability are examined together with their

Quantifying climate risk - the starting point

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fairweather, Helen; Luo, Qunying; Liu, De Li; Wiles, Perry

2007-01-01

Full text: All natural systems have evolved to their current state as a result inter alia of the climate in which they developed. Similarly, man-made systems (such as agricultural production) have developed to suit the climate experienced over the last 100 or so years. The capacity of different systems to adapt to changes in climate that are outside those that have been experienced previously is largely unknown. This results in considerable uncertainty when predicting climate change impacts. However, it is possible to quantify the relative probabilities of a range of potential impacts of climate change. Quantifying current climate risks is an effective starting point for analysing the probable impacts of future climate change and guiding the selection of appropriate adaptation strategies. For a farming system to be viable within the current climate, its profitability must be sustained and, therefore, possible adaptation strategies need to be tested for continued viability in a changed climate. The methodology outlined in this paper examines historical patterns of key climate variables (rainfall and temperature) across the season and their influence on the productivity of wheat growing in NSW. This analysis is used to identify the time of year that the system is most vulnerable to climate variation, within the constraints of the current climate. Wheat yield is used as a measure of productivity, which is also assumed to be a surrogate for profitability. A time series of wheat yields is sorted into ascending order and categorised into five percentile groupings (i.e. 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles) for each shire across NSW (-100 years). Five time series of climate data (which are aggregated daily data from the years in each percentile) are analysed to determine the period that provides the greatest climate risk to the production system. Once this period has been determined, this risk is quantified in terms of the degree of separation of the time series

America's Climate Choices: Cross-Cutting Research Themes to Support Effective Responses to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Moser, S. C.; America'S Climate Choices Science Panel

2010-12-01

The Science Panel of the America’s Climate Choices project concluded that the climate science research enterprise has to make substantial shifts to better meet the needs of the emerging policy and decision landscape in the US. While much scientific attention in the past necessarily and to great success focused on the physical and biogeochemical aspects of understanding the climate-Earth system, much greater focus is now needed in also developing a science of responses to climate change. To that end, the ACC Science report recommended seven cross-cutting themes, three of which will be highlighted in this talk as they touch on topics the physical science community tends to be less familiar with: (1) vulnerability and adaptation analyses of coupled human-environment systems; (2) research on strategies for limiting climate change; and (3) effective information and decision support systems. The presentation will define and sketch out the potential scope of each of these areas and provide examples from various sectors highlighted in the Science panel report.

Media coverage of climate change in Russia: governmental bias and climate silence.

Science.gov (United States)

Poberezhskaya, Marianna

2015-01-01

This paper explores which actors and factors influence media coverage of climate change in Russia. It does this by analysing the coverage of three events by five Russian national newspapers (Komsomol'skaya pravda, Rossiyskaya gazeta, Izvestiya, Kommersant and Sovetskaya Rossiya). The three events are the Kyoto Conference in 1997, the Copenhagen Conference in 2009 and the Russian heat-wave of 2010. This paper concludes that regardless of the ownership structure of the newspapers or their dependence on advertising, there is little difference in quantity and quality of overall coverage on climate change. With most newspapers relying on Russian officials as information sources, almost none criticise or question Russian climate policy. Furthermore, the article concludes that, in Russia, the omission of climate change issues from discussion in national newspapers becomes a greater problem than biased coverage, as the lack of commentary decidedly prevents these issues from entering the public debate. © The Author(s) 2014.

Generating synthetic wave climates for coastal modelling: a linear mixed modelling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, C.; Lark, R. M.

2013-12-01

Numerical coastline morphological evolution models require wave climate properties to drive morphological change through time. Wave climate properties (typically wave height, period and direction) may be temporally fixed, culled from real wave buoy data, or allowed to vary in some way defined by a Gaussian or other pdf. However, to examine sensitivity of coastline morphologies to wave climate change, it seems desirable to be able to modify wave climate time series from a current to some new state along a trajectory, but in a way consistent with, or initially conditioned by, the properties of existing data, or to generate fully synthetic data sets with realistic time series properties. For example, mean or significant wave height time series may have underlying periodicities, as revealed in numerous analyses of wave data. Our motivation is to develop a simple methodology to generate synthetic wave climate time series that can change in some stochastic way through time. We wish to use such time series in a coastline evolution model to test sensitivities of coastal landforms to changes in wave climate over decadal and centennial scales. We have worked initially on time series of significant wave height, based on data from a Waverider III buoy located off the coast of Yorkshire, England. The statistical framework for the simulation is the linear mixed model. The target variable, perhaps after transformation (Box-Cox), is modelled as a multivariate Gaussian, the mean modelled as a function of a fixed effect, and two random components, one of which is independently and identically distributed (iid) and the second of which is temporally correlated. The model was fitted to the data by likelihood methods. We considered the option of a periodic mean, the period either fixed (e.g. at 12 months) or estimated from the data. We considered two possible correlation structures for the second random effect. In one the correlation decays exponentially with time. In the second

Coexistence, Classroom Climate and Philosophy for Children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gonzalo Romero Izarra

2008-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyse the relationship between the classroom’s social climate and the general climate of society in which the school is inserted. We consider essential to start from this reflection in order to define an educational process for social transformation. Philosophy for Children is a methodological option to improve this social climate as it offers teachers and pupils a potentially transforming work that deepens into the values of human relationships for people who are concerned with what happens around them. These are the foundations for democratic relations and a positive classroom social climate.

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)/Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 13, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Santos, Maria J., E-mail: M.J.FerreiraDosSantos@uu.nl [Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3572 TC Utrecht (Netherlands)

2017-05-15

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

2017-01-01

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

Convective Self-Aggregation in Numerical Simulations: A Review

Science.gov (United States)

Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Holloway, Christopher E.; Muller, Caroline

Organized convection in the tropics occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales and strongly influences cloud cover and humidity. One mode of organization found is ``self-aggregation,'' in which moist convection spontaneously organizes into one or several isolated clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing. Self-aggregation is driven by interactions between clouds, moisture, radiation, surface fluxes, and circulation, and occurs in a wide variety of idealized simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. Here we provide a review of convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations, including its character, causes, and effects. We describe the evolution of self-aggregation including its time and length scales and the physical mechanisms leading to its triggering and maintenance, and we also discuss possible links to climate and climate change.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

Transport policies related to climate change mitigation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Kappel, Jannik

and their results are introduced as well. To provide an overview of current trends, related scientific projects and other analyses on climate change mitigation and transport are given in the report. The references used in this report can also serve as a source of data and inspiration for the reader. This report......This report presents the Danish national policies on reducing the emissions of greenhouse gasses and reducing Denmark’s dependency on fossil fuels in the transport sector, as well as some of the results of the policies. Systematic focus on efficient transport and climate mitigation started in 2008...... challenges for the transport sectors, which has not yet been systematically analysed from any Governmental body. In this report we list projects which have done so. The first chapter describes policies and initiatives of international relevance within climate mitigation. The following chapters explain...

Adaptation to climate change. Key terms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levina, E.; Tirpak, D.

2006-05-01

Adaptation has become an important issue in international and domestic discussions on climate change. Numerous terms and concepts have come into common usage as a result of IPCC reports, discussions in the context of the UNFCCC and dialogs by the climate community at large. This paper examines the key adaptation terms and concepts used by the climate change community and other institutions. Conflicts and contradictions are noted with the aim of sensitizing different bodies to the differences, but particularly the Parties to the Convention and experts participating in the IPCC. Given the need to promote a common understanding among various stakeholders and the potential financial implications of various definitions, it appears important for the IPCC and the UNFCCC to work toward common definitions, at least for a core set of terms and concepts

Cognitive Strategy Use and Measured Numeric Ability in Immediate- and Long-Term Recall of Everyday Numeric Information

Science.gov (United States)

Bermingham, Douglas; Hill, Robert D.; Woltz, Dan; Gardner, Michael K.

2013-01-01

The goals of this study were to assess the primary effects of the use of cognitive strategy and a combined measure of numeric ability on recall of every-day numeric information (i.e. prices). Additionally, numeric ability was assessed as a moderator in the relationship between strategy use and memory for prices. One hundred participants memorized twelve prices that varied from 1 to 6 digits; they recalled these immediately and after 7 days. The use of strategies, assessed through self-report, was associated with better overall recall, but not forgetting. Numeric ability was not associated with either better overall recall or forgetting. A small moderating interaction was found, in which higher levels of numeric ability enhanced the beneficial effects of strategy use on overall recall. Exploratory analyses found two further small moderating interactions: simple strategy use enhanced overall recall at higher levels of numeric ability, compared to complex strategy use; and complex strategy use was associated with lower levels of forgetting, but only at higher levels of numeric ability, compared to the simple strategy use. These results provide support for an objective measure of numeric ability, as well as adding to the literature on memory and the benefits of cognitive strategy use. PMID:23483964

Students' Perceptions of Motivational Climate and Enjoyment in Finnish Physical Education: A Latent Profile Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaakkola, Timo; Wang, C K John; Soini, Markus; Liukkonen, Jarmo

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to identify student clusters with homogenous profiles in perceptions of task- and ego-involving, autonomy, and social relatedness supporting motivational climate in school physical education. Additionally, we investigated whether different motivational climate groups differed in their enjoyment in PE. Participants of the study were 2 594 girls and 1 803 boys, aged 14-15 years. Students responded to questionnaires assessing their perception of motivational climate and enjoyment in physical education. Latent profile analyses produced a five-cluster solution labeled 1) 'low autonomy, relatedness, task, and moderate ego climate' group', 2) 'low autonomy, relatedness, and high task and ego climate, 3) 'moderate autonomy, relatedness, task and ego climate' group 4) 'high autonomy, relatedness, task, and moderate ego climate' group, and 5) 'high relatedness and task but moderate autonomy and ego climate' group. Analyses of variance showed that students in clusters 4 and 5 perceived the highest level of enjoyment whereas students in cluster 1 experienced the lowest level of enjoyment. The results showed that the students' perceptions of various motivational climates created differential levels of enjoyment in PE classes. Key pointsLatent profile analyses produced a five-cluster solution labeled 1) 'low autonomy, relatedness, task, and moderate ego climate' group', 2) 'low autonomy, relatedness, and high task and ego climate, 3) 'moderate autonomy, relatedness, task and ego climate' group 4) 'high autonomy, relatedness, task, and moderate ego climate' group, and 5) 'high relatedness and task but moderate autonomy and ego climate' group.Analyses of variance showed that clusters 4 and 5 perceived the highest level of enjoyment whereas cluster 1 experienced the lowest level of enjoyment. The results showed that the students' perceptions of motivational climate create differential levels of enjoyment in PE classes.

Energy and economic savings using geothermal heat pumps in different climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrone, Biagio; Coppola, Gaetano; Raucci, Vincenzo

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Numerical study on 20 years Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) operation is achieved. • Increase in ground temperature due to GSHP can occur during 20 years operation. • Economical and GHG savings using GSHP show divergent trends for different climates. - Abstract: A technical and economic feasibility study is performed on residential buildings, heated and cooled by geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) equipped with energy piles. The analysis is carried out for two different climate locations and building energy needs, which have been evaluated following the current European standard ISO 13790. The energy pile system performance coupled with the GHP has been numerically calculated by using the PILESIM2 software over 20 years of operation. The Primary Energy Saving (PES) indices were calculated comparing the actual GHPs systems with traditional cooling and heating systems, together with their sensitivity to thermal and cooling loads for two different climate locations. Also, economic savings and greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction have been calculated resulting from the GHPs use. The results show that in mild climates, where the GHPs are mainly used as HP, the annual average temperature of the ground around the energy piles can increase up to about 10 °C after many years of operation, whereas in cold climates the increase is nearly negligible. Thus, the economical profit of GHPs is more difficult to achieve in mild climates than in cold ones. Conversely, GHG emission reduction is found to be larger in mild climates than in cold ones

A spatial socio-ecosystem approach to analyse human-environment interactions on climate change adaptation for water resources management

Science.gov (United States)

Giupponi, Carlo; Mojtahed, Vahid

2017-04-01

Global climate and socio-economic drivers determine the future patterns of the allocation and the trade of resources and commodities in all markets. The agricultural sector is an emblematic case in which natural (e.g. climate), social (e.g. demography) and economic (e.g. the market) drivers of change interact, determining the evolution of social and ecological systems (or simply socio-ecosystems; SES) over time. In order to analyse the dynamics and possible future evolutions of SES, the combination of local complex systems and global drivers and trends require the development of multiscale approaches. At global level, climatic general circulation models (CGM) and computable general equilibrium or partial equilibrium models have been used for many years to explore the effects of global trends and generate future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Al local level, the inherent complexity of SESs and their spatial and temporal variabilities require different modelling approaches of physical/environmental sub-systems (e.g. field scale crop modelling, GIS-based models, etc.) and of human agency decision makers (e.g. agent based models). Global and local models have different assumption, limitations, constrains, etc., but in some cases integration is possible and several attempts are in progress to couple different models within the so-called Integrated Assessment Models. This work explores an innovative proposal to integrate the global and local approaches, where agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate spatial (i.e. grid-based) and temporal dynamics of land and water resource use spatial and temporal dynamics, under the effect of global drivers. We focus in particular on how global change may affect land-use allocation at the local to regional level, under the influence of limited natural resources, land and water in particular. We specifically explore how constrains and competition for natural resources may induce non-linearities and discontinuities in socio

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutowski, William J.

2013-02-07

The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

Geopolitics of climate change: A review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bošnjaković Branko

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the geopolitical elements of the emerging discourse on how to control, and cope with climate change. Two complementary approaches may be distinguished: the actor-related approach analyses the positioning of states and interest groups, which develop strategies on coping with climate change; the other approach addresses processes and problem areas (physical, economic, demographic… emerging in the geographic space as a consequence of, or linked to climate change. With failing mitigation policies and instruments, the urgency of adaptation to climate change is increasing. Assessment of regional consequences of climate change includes the perceptions and motivations of presumed losers or winners. New security implications related to climate change are emerging in the Arctic, South-East Asia, Africa and the Pacific. Energy supply security is a dominant factor in geopolitical considerations. The geopolitics of climate change is inextricably linked to many other issues of globalization. Significant shift of global power raises the discussion of ethical responsibility. Climate change is evolving as a testing ground for competitiveness and innovation potential of political and economic models in achieving sustainability.

Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

2007-04-15

The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2010-09-01

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

An analytically based numerical method for computing view factors in real urban environments

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Doo-Il; Woo, Ju-Wan; Lee, Sang-Hyun

2018-01-01

A view factor is an important morphological parameter used in parameterizing in-canyon radiative energy exchange process as well as in characterizing local climate over urban environments. For realistic representation of the in-canyon radiative processes, a complete set of view factors at the horizontal and vertical surfaces of urban facets is required. Various analytical and numerical methods have been suggested to determine the view factors for urban environments, but most of the methods provide only sky-view factor at the ground level of a specific location or assume simplified morphology of complex urban environments. In this study, a numerical method that can determine the sky-view factors ( ψ ga and ψ wa ) and wall-view factors ( ψ gw and ψ ww ) at the horizontal and vertical surfaces is presented for application to real urban morphology, which are derived from an analytical formulation of the view factor between two blackbody surfaces of arbitrary geometry. The established numerical method is validated against the analytical sky-view factor estimation for ideal street canyon geometries, showing a consolidate confidence in accuracy with errors of less than 0.2 %. Using a three-dimensional building database, the numerical method is also demonstrated to be applicable in determining the sky-view factors at the horizontal (roofs and roads) and vertical (walls) surfaces in real urban environments. The results suggest that the analytically based numerical method can be used for the radiative process parameterization of urban numerical models as well as for the characterization of local urban climate.

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have

The Tripod School Climate Index: An Invariant Measure of School Safety and Relationships.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Sarah Fierberg; Rowley, Jacob F S

2016-03-01

Recently revised standards for social work practice in schools encourage data-informed school climate interventions that implicitly require invariant measures of school climate. Invariant measures have the same meaning, scale, and origin across different groups of respondents. Although noninvariant measures bias statistical analyses and can lead users to erroneous conclusions, most school climate measures have not been tested for invariance. This study examines the invariance of the Tripod School Climate Index. Exploratory, confirmatory, and multiple-group confirmatory factor analyses were conducted on data collected from 66,531 students across 222 schools. Results indicate that the index is an excellent fit for the data and invariant by student grade level, demographic background, prior achievement, and dropout risk. Results imply that student responses can be validly aggregated to create school-level scores. The index will not bias studies of school climate interventions or bivariate analyses comparing perceptions of school climate across subgroups of students attending the same school. Given the centrality of school climate interventions to social work practice in schools and the consequences of noninvariance, the development of an index with these properties is an important contribution to the field.

Climate Ambassador Programmes in Municipalities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Michael Søgaard; Pedersen, Stine Rahbek

2016-01-01

Some Danish municipalities have developed ambassador programmes which generate environmental and climate change mitigation efforts in local public administrations and institutions. This chapter analyses the characteristics and experiences of four ambassador programmes now operating...

Deriving nearshore wave climate along South African coast

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rossouw, M

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The present study addressed aspects of the highly interrelated study area of coastal safety and vulnerability, climate change and setback lines for South African coast. A medium resolution numerical wave analysis was undertaken, in the form...

Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

2012-08-15

Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

Science.gov (United States)

Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

2018-01-01

The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

A numerical simulation of pre-big bang cosmology

CERN Document Server

Maharana, J P; Veneziano, Gabriele

1998-01-01

We analyse numerically the onset of pre-big bang inflation in an inhomogeneous, spherically symmetric Universe. Adding a small dilatonic perturbation to a trivial (Milne) background, we find that suitable regions of space undergo dilaton-driven inflation and quickly become spatially flat ($\\Omega \\to 1$). Numerical calculations are pushed close enough to the big bang singularity to allow cross checks against previously proposed analytic asymptotic solutions.

Phenology and pest status of Agrotis segetum in a changing climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Esbjerg, Peter; Sigsgaard, Lene

2014-01-01

Insects are strongly dependent on climatic factors, especially temperature. For this reason, changes in insect phenology are predicted to be one of the many effects of climate change. We analysed the effect of climate warming on Agrotis segetum (Denis & Schiffermüller) in Denmark. Agrotis segetum...

Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

2006-01-01

The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K. [Climate Risk Pty Limited, Fairlight (Australia)

2006-07-01

The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat.

Impact of climate variations on Managed Aquifer Recharge infiltration basins.

Science.gov (United States)

Barquero, Felix; Stefan, Catalin

2017-04-01

KEYWORDS: Managed Aquifer Recharge, field scale infiltration unit, climatic conditions, numerical model Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is a technique that is gaining more attention as a sustainable alternative for areas where water scarcity is increasing. Main concept relies on facilitating the vertical infiltration of a source of fresh water (river water, rainwater, reclaimed water, etc). The groundwater acts as storage of water for further use in the future, for example in times of water scarcity. In some MAR types the soil itself can be used even as a filter for the removal of specific organic and inorganic compounds. In order to promote the benefits of MAR in different zones of the globe with variable climate conditions, including the effects of climate change, a numerical model (HYDRUS 2D/3D) is being set up. Coupled with the model a field-scale rapid infiltration unit (4m x 5m x 1.5m) was constructed with the capacity to log different MAR key parameters in the soil (tension, water content, temperature and electrical conductivity) in space and time. These data will feed the model for its calibration using specific hydrogeological characteristics of the packing material and hydraulic characteristics of the infiltrated fluid. The unit is located in the city of Pirna (German), 200 m north from the Elbe River where the groundwater level varies seasonally between 6 and 9 m below the ground surface. Together with the field scale rapid infiltration unit, a set of multi-parametric sensors (measuring in time: water stage, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and temperature) in six monitoring wells, located on the basin surroundings, were installed. The purpose of these sensors is to estimate, via tracer experiments, the time that the infiltrated water needed to reach the groundwater and the flow speed in which it travelled once it reached the saturated zone. Once calibrated, the model will be able to estimate the flow behaviour under variable climate conditions

Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

2017-04-01

Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends, which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE = 0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; idem) showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5 pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes combined show drier summers (-33{%} rainfall, +27{%} soil moisture deficit) and wetter (+13{%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{%} rain intensity) autumn and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime -particularly peak flow- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural systems

Future Climate Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cambell, C. G.

2004-01-01

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

Time-series analysis of climatologic measurements: a method to distinguish future climatic changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duband, D.

1992-01-01

Time-series analysis of climatic parameters as air temperature, rivers flow rate, lakes or seas level is an indispensable basis to detect a possible significant climatic change. These observations, when they are carefully analyzed and criticized, constitute the necessary reference for testing and validation numerical climatic models which try to simulate the physical and dynamical process of the ocean-atmosphere couple, taking continents into account. 32 refs., 13 figs

Addressing the trade-climate change-energy nexus: China's explorations in a global governance landscape

OpenAIRE

Monkelbaan, Joachim

2014-01-01

We have arrived at a critical juncture when it comes to understanding the numerous ways in which trade interacts with climate change and energy (trade-climate-energy nexus). Trade remains crucial for the sustainable development of the world's greatest trading nation: China. After clarifying the linkages within the trade, climate change and energy nexus, this article delves into China's specific needs and interests related to trade, climate change and energy. Then it explores the ways in which...

Classroom disciplinary climate of schools and gender

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sortkær, Bent; Reimer, David

2018-01-01

Classroom disciplinary climate has emerged as a crucial factor with regard to student achievement. However, most previous studies have not explored potential gender differences in both students’ perceptions of the classroom disciplinary climate and the association between classroom disciplinary...... and students’ mathematics performance across countries. On the basis of an analysis of a pooled sample consisting of all 5 Nordic countries, we found that the correlation between classroom disciplinary climate of schools and maths achievement is significantly stronger for boys than for girls. Further analyses...... showed that this finding may partly be attributable to gender differences in the perception of the disciplinary climate of schools, whereby boys seemed to perceive the classroom disciplinary climate of schools more positively than girls....

Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

2001-08-01

The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m{sup 2} of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation.

Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uppenberg, S.; Zetterberg, L.; Aahman, M.

2001-08-01

The climate impact from the use of peat for energy production in Sweden has been evaluated in terms of contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing. This was done by attempting to answer the question 'What will be the climate impact if one would use 1 m 2 of mire for peat extraction during 20 years?'. Two different methods of after-treatment were studied: afforestation and restoration of wetland. The climate impact from a peatland - wetland energy scenario and a peatland - forestry energy scenario was compared to the climate impact from coal, natural gas and forest residues. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate which parameters that are important to take into consideration in order to minimize the climate impact from peat utilisation

Safety climate and accidents at work

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ajslev, Jeppe; Dastjerdi, Efat Lali; Dyreborg, Johnny

2017-01-01

Aim: Occupational safety climate is utilized as a way to measure the risk of accidents and injuries at work. This study investigates which factors are associated with safety climate and accidents at work. Methods: In the 2012 round of the Danish Work Environment and Health Study, 15,144 workers...... from the general working population of Denmark replied to questions about safety climate and accidents at work. Mutually adjusted logistic regression analyses determined the association between variables. Results: Within the last year, 5.7% had experienced an accident resulting in sickness absence....... The number of safety climate problems was progressively associated with the odds ratio (OR) for accidents. For one safety climate problem the OR for accidents was 2.01 (95% CI 1.67–2.42), for four or more safety climate problems the OR was 4.57 (95% CI 3.64–5.74). Young workers (18–24 years) had higher odds...

Proceeding of 1998-workshop on MHD computations. Study on numerical methods related to plasma confinement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kako, T.; Watanabe, T.

1999-04-01

This is the proceeding of 'Study on Numerical Methods Related to Plasma Confinement' held in National Institute for Fusion Science. In this workshop, theoretical and numerical analyses of possible plasma equilibria with their stability properties are presented. These are also various talks on mathematical as well as numerical analyses related to the computational methods for fluid dynamics and plasma physics. The 14 papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

Proceeding of 1998-workshop on MHD computations. Study on numerical methods related to plasma confinement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kako, T.; Watanabe, T. [eds.

1999-04-01

This is the proceeding of 'Study on Numerical Methods Related to Plasma Confinement' held in National Institute for Fusion Science. In this workshop, theoretical and numerical analyses of possible plasma equilibria with their stability properties are presented. These are also various talks on mathematical as well as numerical analyses related to the computational methods for fluid dynamics and plasma physics. The 14 papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

Energies-climate review (Panorama energies-climate) - issue 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goubet, Cecile; Beriot, Nicolas; Daurian, Aurelien; Vieillefosse, Alice; Ducastelle, Julien; Le Guen, Solenn; Strang, Axel; Courtois, Sophie; Brender, Pierre; Guibert, Olivier de; Croquette, Gilles; Simiu, Diane; Venturini, Isabelle; Hesske, Philip; Oriol, Louise; Louati, Sami; Cadin, Didier; Korman, Bernard; Defays, Julien; Balian, Armelle; Guichaoua, Sabine; Isoard, Vivien; Lamy, Jean-michel; Pelce, Frederic; Fondeville, Louis; Baumont, Thierry; Triquet, Olivier; Mouloudi, Fadwa; Quintaine, Thierry; Reizine, Stanislas; Pertuiset, Thomas; Caron, Antoine; Blanchard, Sidonie; Timsit, Isabelle; Lewis, Florian; Ducouret, Melanie; Leclercq, Martine; Derville, Isabelle; Grenon, Georgina; Thomas, Julien; Oeser, Christian; Thouin, Catherine; Dumiot, Jacques-Emmanuel; Rondeau, Claudine; Menager, Yann; Barber, Nicolas; Weill, Jonathan; Furois, Timothee; Thomines, Marie; Brunet-Lecomte, Helene; Boutot, Romary; Strang, Axel; Giraud, Jean; Thomas, Julien; Oeser, Christian; Perrette, Lionel; Breda, Willy; Panetier, Vincent; Miraval, Bruno; Delaugerre, Frederique; Leinekugel Le Cocq, Thibaut; Lemaire, Yves; Thabet, Soraya

2013-01-01

This issue first analyses what is at stake with energy transition: struggle against climate change, management of energy demand and promotion of energy efficiency, struggle against energy poverty, development of technologies for tomorrow's energy system. It discusses France's position within its European and international environment: European energy-climate objectives, world context of oil and gas markets, European electricity markets, imports and exports, energy bill. It presents and analyses the situation of the oil and gas sector in France: hydrocarbon exploration and production in France, refining activities, substitution fuels, oil infrastructures, oil product retailing, and gas infrastructures. It then presents the French electric system (electricity production, electricity transport and distribution grids and networks, electric system safety) and the industrial sectors involved in de-carbonated energy production: biomass, wind energy, sea energy, geothermal energy, hydroelectricity, nuclear energy, photovoltaic and thermodynamic solar energy. It addresses the industrial sectors involved in a better use of energy: dynamic control of smart energy systems (smart grids, hydrogen, energy storage), CO 2 capture and storage, de-carbonated vehicle and its ecosystem. The last part addresses oil product prices, gas prices, electricity prices, the energy tax system, and the arrangements and costs of the support to renewable energy production

Modeling the water balance of sloped vineyards under various climate change scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hofmann Marco

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture, models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up to 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over two years. The results showed good agreement of modelled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in soil water holding capacity. The model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes.

Physical and numerical modelling of permafrost dynamic during a climatic cycle: implications for Meuse - Haute-Marne site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Regnier, D.

2012-01-01

This manuscript deals about works realized on the permafrost modelling in porous media and its impact on the hydrogeological circulations. These are parts of the Andra's studies on the nuclear waste storage and, on the environmental studies of the Meuse/Haute-Marne (MHM) site. During a climatic cycle, cold periods can generate permafrost (ground with temperature lower than 0 C for 2 consecutive years). This peri-glacial structure propagates towards deep geological layers, and, due to its very low permeability, can stop the flow of water bodies like aquifers. This work presents the elaboration of two numerical models (with Cast3M code (CEA)): (i) a model with thermal conduction, used for the study of a cold wave propagation in porous media with phase transition (water-ice); (ii) a more complex model, managing the thermo-hydraulic coupling of ground phenomenon (conduction, convection and transition of phase). After validation, these two models offer three axes of development: (i) benchmark proposition by the study of two generic test-cases; (ii) study of the local air temperature signal on MHM site: importance of high frequency temperature variations (centennial scale) for permafrost depth and stability; (iii) study of the dynamics of a thermal discontinuity in a typical hydrological system river-plain: closure time of the system by the permafrost according to various parameters (temperatures, geothermal flow, hydrological flow directions). (author) [fr

Why Interfaces are the Key for Developing Climate Services

Science.gov (United States)

Cortekar, Jörg; Bender, Steffen; Groth, Markus

2015-04-01

Responding to climate change today involves both mitigation to address the cause and adaptation as a response to already on-going and expected changes. But to what exactly do we have to adapt? And what happens, when environmental, economical or administrative boundary conditions changes? In recent years the concept of climate services has evolved to provide user tailored information to meet individual adaptation needs. According to the Global Framework for Climate Services, climate services involve high-quality data e.g. on temperature, rainfall, wind, etc., as well as maps, risk and vulnerability analyses, assessments, and long-term projections and scenarios. Depending on specific user's needs, these data and information products may be combined with non-meteorological sector-specific data, such as agricultural production, flood risk maps or health trends, and other socio-economic variables to support decision-making of stakeholders who are affected by climate change. This, still non-exhaustive list already indicates that many different scientific disciplines are involved in the development and provision of climate services. Integrating different and equally important scientific approaches to contribute to the solution of one specific problem is challenging. In economics, for instance, many different and promising methods and tools such as cost-benefit-analyses are available which play a key role in providing policy makers and other stakeholders with data and information in order to create a robust decision-making basis for efficiently using scarce budgets. Cost-benefit-analysis is a well-established method in economic theory, its application in the field of climate change adaptation, however, is still new. The bulk of cost and benefit assessments currently pursues a top-down-approach. That is, the required data is generated by downscaling cost and benefit estimations of global impact assessment models to a specific region. In many cases global information are not

Relation between the sedimentary organic record and the climatic oscilations in the Holocene attested by palynofacies and organic geochemical analyses from a pond of altitude in southern Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GABRIELLI T. GADENS-MARCON

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the quantitative and qualitative results obtained from palynofacies and geochemistry analyses carried out on a core covering approximately 8000 years of sedimentation of a pond of altitude located at the mining district of Ametista do Sul, southernmost Brazil. The main objective of this paper is to consider the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental significance of these analyses. The hydrological isolation renders this pond climatically sensitive to variations in pluviometric regime and this enabled infer rainfall events during the early Holocene, which was responsible for the beginning of the processes of water accumulation in the gossan and the sedimentation of the pond. Changes in the pattern of moisture over the time become the drier environment, resulting in the intermittent pattern of water depth that currently exists at the site. The fluctuations in water depth are inferred from the frequency of Botryococcus and other algae, which tend to decrease progressively toward the top where the autochthonous elements are replaced by parautochthonous and allochthonous elements. Pseudoschizaea, in turn, appears to act as a biological marker of these transitional intervals. The present results are of great importance for understanding the extent of climate change and its environmental impacts at regional and global levels.

Experimental and numerical investigation on two-phase flow instabilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruspini, Leonardo Carlos

2013-03-01

Two-phase flow instabilities are experimentally and numerically studied within this thesis. In particular, the phenomena called Ledinegg instability, density wave oscillations and pressure drop oscillations are investigated. The most important investigations regarding the occurrence of two-phase flow instabilities are reviewed. An extensive description of the main contributions in the experimental and analytical research is presented. In addition, a critical discussion and recommendations for future investigations are presented. A numerical framework using a hp-adaptive method is developed in order to solve the conservation equations modelling general thermo-hydraulic systems. A natural convection problem is analysed numerically in order to test the numerical solver. Moreover, the description of an adaptive strategy to solve thermo-hydraulic problems is presented. In the second part of this dissertation, a homogeneous model is used to study Ledinegg, density wave and pressure drop oscillations phenomena numerically. The dynamic characteristics of the Ledinegg (flow excursion) phenomenon are analysed through the simulation of several transient examples. In addition, density wave instabilities in boiling and condensing systems are investigated. The effects of several parameters, such as the fluid inertia and compressibility volumes, on the stability limits of Ledinegg and density wave instabilities are studied, showing a strong influence of these parameters. Moreover, the phenomenon called pressure drop oscillations is numerically investigated. A discussion of the physical representation of several models is presented with reference to the obtained numerical results. Finally, the influence of different parameters on these phenomena is analysed. In the last part, an experimental investigation of these phenomena is presented. The designing methodology used for the construction of the experimental facility is described. Several simulations and a non

Prerequisites for understanding climate-change impacts on northern prairie wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Anteau, Michael J.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Post van der Burg, Max; Pearse, Aaron T.

2016-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains ecosystems that are typified by an extensive matrix of grasslands and depressional wetlands, which provide numerous ecosystem services. Over the past 150 years the PPR has experienced numerous landscape modifications resulting in agricultural conversion of 75–99 % of native prairie uplands and drainage of 50–90 % of wetlands. There is concern over how and where conservation dollars should be spent within the PPR to protect and restore wetland basins to support waterbird populations that will be robust to a changing climate. However, while hydrological impacts of landscape modifications appear substantial, they are still poorly understood. Previous modeling efforts addressing impacts of climate change on PPR wetlands have yet to fully incorporate interacting or potentially overshadowing impacts of landscape modification. We outlined several information needs for building more informative models to predict climate change effects on PPR wetlands. We reviewed how landscape modification influences wetland hydrology and present a conceptual model to describe how modified wetlands might respond to climate variability. We note that current climate projections do not incorporate cyclical variability in climate between wet and dry periods even though such dynamics have shaped the hydrology and ecology of PPR wetlands. We conclude that there are at least three prerequisite steps to making meaningful predictions about effects of climate change on PPR wetlands. Those evident to us are: 1) an understanding of how physical and watershed characteristics of wetland basins of similar hydroperiods vary across temperature and moisture gradients; 2) a mechanistic understanding of how wetlands respond to climate across a gradient of anthropogenic modifications; and 3) improved climate projections for the PPR that can meaningfully represent potential changes in climate variability including intensity and duration of wet and dry periods. Once

Late Frasnian-Famennian climates based on palynomorph analyses and the question of the Late Devonian glaciations

Science.gov (United States)

Streel, Maurice; Caputo, Mário V.; Loboziak, Stanislas; Melo, José Henrique G.

2000-11-01

Palynomorph distribution in Euramerica and western Gondwana, from the Latest Givetian to the Latest Famennian, may be explained, to some extent, by climatic changes. Detailed miospore stratigraphy dates accurately the successive steps of these changes. Interpretation is built on three postulates which are discussed: Euramerica at slightly lower latitudes than generally accepted by most paleomagnetic reconstructions; a conodont time-scale accepted as the most used available subdivision of time; and Late Devonian sea-level fluctuations mainly governed by glacio-eustasy. The Frasnian-Famennian timescale is also evaluated. The comparison, based on conodont correlations, between Givetian and most of the Frasnian miospore assemblages from, respectively, northern and southern Euramerica demonstrates a high taxonomic diversity in the equatorial belt and much difference between supposed equatorial and (sub) tropical vegetations. On the contrary, a similar vegetation pattern and therefore probably compatible climatic conditions were present from tropical to subpolar areas. A rather hot climate culminated during the Latest Frasnian when equatorial miospore assemblages reached their maximum width. The miospore diversity shows also a rather clear global Late Frasnian minimum which is also recorded during the Early and Middle Famennian but only in low latitude regions while, in high latitude, very cold climates without perennial snow may explain the scarcity of miospores and so, of vegetation. The Early and Middle Famennian conspicuous latitudinal gradient of the vegetation seems to attenuate towards the Late and Latest Famennian but this might be above all the result of the development, of cosmopolitan coastal lowland vegetations (downstream swamps) depending more on the moisture and equable local microclimates than on the probably adverse climates of distant hinterland areas. During that time, periods of cold climate without perennial snow cover and with rare vegetation may

Integration of numerical analysis tools for automated numerical optimization of a transportation package design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Witkowski, W.R.; Eldred, M.S.; Harding, D.C.

1994-01-01

The use of state-of-the-art numerical analysis tools to determine the optimal design of a radioactive material (RAM) transportation container is investigated. The design of a RAM package's components involves a complex coupling of structural, thermal, and radioactive shielding analyses. The final design must adhere to very strict design constraints. The current technique used by cask designers is uncoupled and involves designing each component separately with respect to its driving constraint. With the use of numerical optimization schemes, the complex couplings can be considered directly, and the performance of the integrated package can be maximized with respect to the analysis conditions. This can lead to more efficient package designs. Thermal and structural accident conditions are analyzed in the shape optimization of a simplified cask design. In this paper, details of the integration of numerical analysis tools, development of a process model, nonsmoothness difficulties with the optimization of the cask, and preliminary results are discussed

Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change projections and historical analyses have shown alterations in global precipitation dynamics, and therefore, it is also expected that there will be associated changes to soil erosion rates. The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social, and environmen...

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1997-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

Mathematical paradigms of climate science

CERN Document Server

Cannarsa, Piermarco; Jones, Christopher; Portaluri, Alessandro

2016-01-01

This book, featuring a truly interdisciplinary approach, provides an overview of cutting-edge mathematical theories and techniques that promise to play a central role in climate science. It brings together some of the most interesting overview lectures given by the invited speakers at an important workshop held in Rome in 2013 as a part of MPE2013 (“Mathematics of Planet Earth 2013”). The aim of the workshop was to foster the interaction between climate scientists and mathematicians active in various fields linked to climate sciences, such as dynamical systems, partial differential equations, control theory, stochastic systems, and numerical analysis. Mathematics and statistics already play a central role in this area. Likewise, computer science must have a say in the efforts to simulate the Earth’s environment on the unprecedented scale of petabytes. In the context of such complexity, new mathematical tools are needed to organize and simplify the approach. The growing importance of data assimilation te...

Experimental and numerical analyses on the effect of increasing inflow temperatures on the flow mixing behavior in a T-junction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvam, P. Karthick; Kulenovic, Rudi; Laurien, Eckart

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Experimental and numerical analyses of three T-junction mixing cases. • Temperature difference (ΔT) between fluids are 51.5 K, 76 K and 97 K. • Thermally stratified flow behavior is observed in all cases in the mixing zone. • Temperature fluctuations have maximum amplitudes of about 6.3–9.9% of ΔT. • High amplitude fluctuations occur near stratification layer in the mixing region. • Power spectral density (PSD) of fluctuations contains energy in 0.1–2 Hz range. - Abstract: Thermal degradation of piping induced by high cycle thermal fatigue (HCTF) is of significant importance as operating Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) become older and lifetime extension activities are initiated. In particular, HCTF incidents related to turbulent thermal mixing of fluids in a T-junction piping system are not well understood and could not be adequately monitored using common thermocouple instrumentation. To investigate this phenomenon, an experimental T-junction test facility was commissioned at the University of Stuttgart, known as the Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI) test facility. The paper presents the experimental investigation and the corresponding numerical validation using the large eddy simulation (LES) method to study T-junction flow mixing. Three experimental test cases are investigated with temperature differences (∆T) of 51.5 K (Case 1), 76 K (Case 2) and 97 K (Case 3) between the mixing fluids. A constant mass flow rate ratio (main/branch) of 4:1 is maintained in all the investigated cases. Flow mixing is observed to be incomplete in all the cases, resulting in a thermally stratified flow with an oscillating stratification layer downstream of the T-junction. Mean temperature and root mean square (RMS) temperature fluctuations predicted by LES in the mixing region are found to be in good agreement with measurement data, with the exception of few positions. Amplitudes of temperature fluctuations are observed to be higher near the

Global imprint of climate change on marine life

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

2013-01-01

Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available ...

Experimental and numerical analyses on thermal performance of different typologies of PCMs integrated in the roof space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elarga, Hagar; Fantucci, Stefano; Serra, Valentina

2017-01-01

portions, one, the bare roof, representing the reference case without PCMs, the other two integrating two PCM's typologies with different melting/solidification temperatures range. A numerical model was furthermore developed implementing the equivalent capacitance numerical method to describe the substance...... peak load between 13% and 59% depending on the PCM typology, highlighting that to reach the expected performance the proper PCM type should be carefully selected....

Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebi, Kristie L; Ogden, Nicholas H; Semenza, Jan C; Woodward, Alistair

2017-08-07

Detection and attribution of health impacts caused by climate change uses formal methods to determine a ) whether the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has changed, and b ) the extent to which that change could be attributed to climate change. There have been limited efforts to undertake detection and attribution analyses in health. Our goal was to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses. Case studies for heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe highlight evidence that climate change is adversely affecting human health. Changes in rates and geographic distribution of adverse health outcomes were detected, and, in each instance, a proportion of the observed changes could, in our judgment, be attributed to changes in weather patterns associated with climate change. The results of detection and attribution studies can inform evidence-based risk management to reduce current, and plan for future, changes in health risks associated with climate change. Gaining a better understanding of the size, timing, and distribution of the climate change burden of disease and injury requires reliable long-term data sets, more knowledge about the factors that confound and modify the effects of climate on health, and refinement of analytic techniques for detection and attribution. At the same time, significant advances are possible in the absence of complete data and statistical certainty: there is a place for well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509.

Microneedle-assisted transdermal delivery of Zolmitriptan: effect of microneedle geometry, in vitro permeation experiments, scaling analyses and numerical simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Uppuluri, Chandra Teja; Devineni, Jyothirmayee; Han, Tao; Nayak, Atul; Nair, Kartik J; Whiteside, Benjamin R; Das, Diganta B; Nalluri, Buchi N

2017-08-01

The present study was aimed to investigate the effect of salient microneedle (MN) geometry parameters like length, density, shape and type on transdermal permeation enhancement of Zolmitriptan (ZMT). Two types of MN devices viz. AdminPatch ® arrays (ADM) (0.6, 0.9, 1.2 and 1.5 mm lengths) and laboratory fabricated polymeric MNs (PM) of 0.6 mm length were employed. In the case of PMs, arrays were applied thrice at different places within a 1.77 cm 2 skin area (PM-3) to maintain the MN density closer to 0.6 mm ADM. Scaling analyses was done using dimensionless parameters like concentration of ZMT (C t /C s ), thickness (h/L) and surface area of the skin (Sa/L 2 ). Micro-injection molding technique was employed to fabricate PM. Histological studies revealed that the PM, owing to their geometry/design, formed wider and deeper microconduits when compared to ADM of similar length. Approximately 3.17- and 3.65-fold increase in ZMT flux values were observed with 1.5 mm ADM and PM-3 applications when compared to the passive studies. Good correlations were observed between different dimensionless parameters with scaling analyses. Numerical simulations, using MATLAB and COMSOL software, based on experimental data and histological images provided information regarding the ZMT skin distribution after MN application. Both from experimental studies and simulations, it was inferred that PM were more effective in enhancing the transdermal delivery of ZMT when compared to ADM. The study suggests that MN application enhances the ZMT transdermal permeation and the geometrical parameters of MNs play an important role in the degree of such enhancement.

Planning design of Ukrainian mines by the means of numerical calculations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruppel, Ulrich; Scior, Carsten [DMT GmbH und Co. KG (DMT), Essen (Germany). Rock Mechanic Dept.

2008-08-21

Using a mine in the Ukraine as an example it is shown how the DMT performs rock mechanical and support planning or roadways in hard coal mines worldwide. Therefore it is necessary to analyse existing measurements and operating experience within a few days as well as organising further surveys on site on short notice. Based on these results the numerical models are calibrated. Using the numerical simulation technology it is possible for DMT to quantify and analyse the rock mechanical impact of different support systems within a short time. Finally the results of the numerical calculations are set in comparison in a rating matrix. Besides making a decision on implementing new roadway and support systems with the objective to use the roadways up to the second longwall panel, the rating matrix is also used for analysing the optimization potentials of existing support systems. This allows the recommendations to immediate improvement of the strata control in the miner's roadways. (orig.)

Cautiously utopian goals : Philosophical analyses of climate change objectives and sustainability targets

OpenAIRE

Baard, Patrik

2016-01-01

In this thesis, the framework within which long-term goals are set and subsequently achieved or approached is analyzed. Sustainable development and climate change are areas in which goals have tobe set despite uncertainties. The analysis is divided into the normative motivations for setting such goals, what forms of goals could be set given the empirical and normative uncertainties, and how tomanage doubts regarding achievability or values after a goal has been set. Paper I discusses a set of...

In-depth analyses of paleolithic pigments in cave climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Touron, Stéphanie; Trichereau, Barbara; Syvilay, Delphine

2017-07-01

Painted caves are a specific environment which preservation needs multidisciplinary studies carried out within the different actors. The actions set-up must follow national and European ethics and treaties and be as less invasive as possible to preserve the integrity of the site. Studying colorants in caves should meet these expectations and take into account on-field conditions: high humidity rate, reduced access to electricity, etc. Therefore, non-invasive analyses should be preferred. However, their limits restrict the field of application and sometimes sampling and laboratory analyses must be used to answer the problematic. It is especially true when the pigment is covered by calcite. For this purpose, the Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) has been assessed to identify the composition with stratigraphic analyses. This study carries out in-depth profile on laboratory samples in conditions close to the ones meet in caves. Samples were prepared on a calcareous substrate using three pigments: red ochre, manganese black and carbon black and two binding media: water and saliva. All samples have been covered by calcite. Four sets of measurements have then been done using the LIBS instrument. The in-depth profiles were obtained using the Standard Normal Variate (SNV) normalization. For all the samples, the pigment layer was identified in the second or third shot, the calcite layer being quite thin. However, the results remain promising with the carbon black pigment but not really conclusive, the carbon being generally quite difficult to quantify.

Numerical modelling of convective heat transport by air flow in permafrost talus slopes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Wicky

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Talus slopes are a widespread geomorphic feature in the Alps. Due to their high porosity a gravity-driven internal air circulation can be established which is forced by the gradient between external (air and internal (talus temperature. The thermal regime is different from the surrounding environment, leading to the occurrence of permafrost below the typical permafrost zone. This phenomenon has mainly been analysed by field studies and only few explicit numerical modelling studies exist. Numerical simulations of permafrost sometimes use parameterisations for the effects of convection but mostly neglect the influence of convective heat transfer in air on the thermal regime. In contrast, in civil engineering many studies have been carried out to investigate the thermal behaviour of blocky layers and to improve their passive cooling effect. The present study further develops and applies these concepts to model heat transfer in air flows in a natural-scale talus slope. Modelling results show that convective heat transfer has the potential to develop a significant temperature difference between the lower and the upper parts of the talus slope. A seasonally alternating chimney-effect type of circulation develops. Modelling results also show that this convective heat transfer leads to the formation of a cold reservoir in the lower part of the talus slope, which can be crucial for maintaining the frozen ground conditions despite increasing air temperatures caused by climate change.

Revisiting the concept of adaptation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juvanon Du Vachat, R.

2013-01-01

We clarify what is the adaptation to climate change, as compared to the mitigation (limitation of green-house gases). Adaptation will be necessary in any case in the future climate, even if we stop the emission of these gazes, because of the inertial response of the climatic machinery. We consider some socio-economic sectors like agriculture, viticulture, forestry, where the professionals are largely aware of the concepts of climate change. In these cases they have already defined their adaptation strategy. For other sectors, a classical method proposed by researchers is to study the results of impacts studies, using regional climate models. The limitation of these models is discussed. Then another method is proposed: to create a room for dialogue between researchers in charge of numerical simulations and some stake-holders or representative of the sector. This has been the method used successfully by the Canadian consortium OURANOS. Finally the role of extreme climate events is highlighted, because some reflection and financial evaluation is usually done after their occurrence, even if the link with climate change is not clearly demonstrated. The role of geographers and meteorologists is vigorously encouraged since they have some expertise for defining adaptation strategy. (author)

Analysing the environmental harms caused by coal mining and its protection measures in permafrost regions of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Cao

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The coal mining has brought a series of ecological problems and environmental problems in permafrost regions. Taking Muli coal-mining area as an example, this article attempts to analyse the environmental harms caused by coal mining and its protection measures in permafrost regions of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. This article analyses the influence of open mining on the surrounding permafrost around the open pit by using the numerical simulation. The results show that (1 based on the interrelation between coal mining and permafrost environment, these main environmental harm include the permafrost change and the natural environment change in cold regions; (2 once the surface temperature rises due to open mining, the permafrost will disappear with the increase of exploitation life. If considering the solar radiation, the climate conditions and the geological condition around the pit edge, the maximum thaw depth will be more than 2 m; (3 the protection measures are proposed to avoid the disadvantage impact on the permafrost environment caused by coal mining. It will provide a scientific basis for the resource development and environment protection in cold regions.

Adaptability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprague, M.W.

1991-01-01

The potential social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change are reviewed, with emphasis on agricultural implications. Impact analyses must be done on the scale of watersheds or river basins. For agriculture, climate change effects on water resources are likely to be more important than temperature changes, and climatic variability is also equally important. Another set of critical climatic variables are the frequencies, magnitudes and timing of extreme events such as floods, droughts, etc. A carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere will increase water use efficiency and confer increased tolerance to drought, salinity and air pollution. Better understanding and accounting is required for the effects of increased carbon dioxide on all plant life, including crops. Adaptability of agriculture to change must be taken into account in predicting impacts of climate change, with technological innovation and infrastructure giving agriculture a dynamic nature. Limitations and adaptations must be considered when formulating public policy, to ensure that marginal costs do not exceed marginal benefits. Monoculture plantation forests may be the most efficient sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, yet widespread reliance on them may harm biological diversity. Actions the U.S. is currently taking under a no-regrets policy are summarized

Ecohydrology in Mediterranean areas: a numerical model to describe growing seasons out of phase with precipitations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Pumo

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The probabilistic description of soil moisture dynamics is a relatively new topic in hydrology. The most common ecohydrological models start from a stochastic differential equation describing the soil water balance, where the unknown quantity, the soil moisture, depends both on spaces and time. Most of the solutions existing in literature are obtained in a probabilistic framework and under steady-state condition; even if this last condition allows the analytical handling of the problem, it has considerably simplified the same problem by subtracting generalities from it.

The steady-state hypothesis, appears perfectly applicable in arid and semiarid climatic areas like those of African's or middle American's savannas, but it seems to be no more valid in areas with Mediterranean climate, where, notoriously, the wet season foregoes the growing season, recharging water into the soil. This moisture stored at the beginning of the growing season (known as soil moisture initial condition has a great importance, especially for deep-rooted vegetation, by enabling survival in absence of rainfalls during the growing season and, however, keeping the water stress low during the first period of the same season.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the soil moisture dynamics using a simple non-steady numerical ecohydrological model. The numerical model here proposed is able to reproduce soil moisture probability density function, obtained analytically in previous studies for different climates and soils in steady-state conditions; consequently it can be used to compute both the soil moisture time-profile and the vegetation static water stress time-profile in non-steady conditions.

Here the differences between the steady-analytical and the non-steady numerical probability density functions are analyzed, showing how the proposed numerical model is able to capture the effects of winter recharge on the soil moisture. The dynamic

Evaluation of fracture mechanics analyses used in RPV integrity assessment regarding brittle fracture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moinereau, D.; Faidy, C.; Valeta, M.P.; Bhandari, S.; Guichard, D.

1997-01-01

Electricite de France has conducted during these last years some experimental and numerical research programmes in order to evaluate fracture mechanics analyses used in nuclear reactor pressure vessels structural integrity assessment, regarding the risk of brittle fracture. These programmes included cleavage fracture tests on large scale cladded specimens containing subclad flaws with their interpretations by 2D and 3D numerical computations, and validation of finite element codes for pressurized thermal shocks analyses. Four cladded specimens made of ferritic steel A508 C13 with stainless steel cladding, and containing shallow subclad flaws, have been tested in four point bending at very low temperature in order to obtain cleavage failure. The specimen failure was obtained in each case in base metal by cleavage fracture. These tests have been interpreted by two-dimensional and three-dimensional finite element computations using different fracture mechanics approaches (elastic analysis with specific plasticity corrections, elastic-plastic analysis, local approach to cleavage fracture). The failure of specimens are conservatively predicted by different analyses. The comparison between the elastic analyses and elastic-plastic analyses shows the conservatism of specific plasticity corrections used in French RPV elastic analyses. Numerous finite element calculations have also been performed between EDF, CEA and Framatome in order to compare and validate several fracture mechanics post processors implemented in finite element programmes used in pressurized thermal shock analyses. This work includes two-dimensional numerical computations on specimens with different geometries and loadings. The comparisons show a rather good agreement on main results, allowing to validate the finite element codes and their post-processors. (author). 11 refs, 24 figs, 3 tabs

Evaluation of fracture mechanics analyses used in RPV integrity assessment regarding brittle fracture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moinereau, D [Electricite de France, Dept. MTC, Moret-sur-Loing (France); Faidy, C [Electricite de France, SEPTEN, Villeurbanne (France); Valeta, M P [Commisariat a l` Energie Atomique, Dept. DMT, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Bhandari, S; Guichard, D [Societe Franco-Americaine de Constructions Atomiques (FRAMATOME), 92 - Paris-La-Defense (France)

1997-09-01

Electricite de France has conducted during these last years some experimental and numerical research programmes in order to evaluate fracture mechanics analyses used in nuclear reactor pressure vessels structural integrity assessment, regarding the risk of brittle fracture. These programmes included cleavage fracture tests on large scale cladded specimens containing subclad flaws with their interpretations by 2D and 3D numerical computations, and validation of finite element codes for pressurized thermal shocks analyses. Four cladded specimens made of ferritic steel A508 C13 with stainless steel cladding, and containing shallow subclad flaws, have been tested in four point bending at very low temperature in order to obtain cleavage failure. The specimen failure was obtained in each case in base metal by cleavage fracture. These tests have been interpreted by two-dimensional and three-dimensional finite element computations using different fracture mechanics approaches (elastic analysis with specific plasticity corrections, elastic-plastic analysis, local approach to cleavage fracture). The failure of specimens are conservatively predicted by different analyses. The comparison between the elastic analyses and elastic-plastic analyses shows the conservatism of specific plasticity corrections used in French RPV elastic analyses. Numerous finite element calculations have also been performed between EDF, CEA and Framatome in order to compare and validate several fracture mechanics post processors implemented in finite element programmes used in pressurized thermal shock analyses. This work includes two-dimensional numerical computations on specimens with different geometries and loadings. The comparisons show a rather good agreement on main results, allowing to validate the finite element codes and their post-processors. (author). 11 refs, 24 figs, 3 tabs.

Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Karin Barrueto

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Global climate models foresee changes in temperature and precipitation regimes that shift regional climate zones and influence the viability of agricultural market systems. Understanding the influence of climate change on the different sub-sectors and functions of a market system is crucial to increasing the systems’ climate resilience and to ensuring the long-term viability of the sectors. Our research applies a new approach to climate change analysis to better understand the influence of climate change on each step of an agricultural market system—on its core (processing units, storage facilities and sales and support functions (sapling supply, research, insurance and agricultural policy. We use spatial climate analyses to investigate current and projected changes in climate for different regions in Nepal. We then analyse the risks and vulnerabilities of the sub-sectors banana, charcoal, coffee, macadamia, orange, vegetables and walnut. Our results show that temperatures and precipitation levels will change differently depending on the climatic regions, and that climate change elicits different responses from the market functions both between and within each of the different sub-sectors. We conclude that climate-related interventions in market systems must account for each different market function’s specific response and exposure to climate change, in order to select adaptation measures that ensure long-term climate resilience.

Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan E. Suk

2014-02-01

Full Text Available A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2 levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Suk, Jonathan E; Ebi, Kristie L; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C

2014-02-21

A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berkhout, F.G.H.; Hertin, J.; Gann, D.M.

2006-01-01

Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new

Climate change and group dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Postmes, Tom

2015-01-01

The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

Accounting for rate variation among lineages in comparative demographic analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Hope, Andrew G.; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Malaney, Jason L.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2014-01-01

Genetic analyses of contemporary populations can be used to estimate the demographic histories of species within an ecological community. Comparison of these demographic histories can shed light on community responses to past climatic events. However, species experience different rates of molecular evolution, and this presents a major obstacle to comparative demographic analyses. We address this problem by using a Bayesian relaxed-clock method to estimate the relative evolutionary rates of 22 small mammal taxa distributed across northwestern North America. We found that estimates of the relative molecular substitution rate for each taxon were consistent across the range of sampling schemes that we compared. Using three different reference rates, we rescaled the relative rates so that they could be used to estimate absolute evolutionary timescales. Accounting for rate variation among taxa led to temporal shifts in our skyline-plot estimates of demographic history, highlighting both uniform and idiosyncratic evolutionary responses to directional climate trends for distinct ecological subsets of the small mammal community. Our approach can be used in evolutionary analyses of populations from multiple species, including comparative demographic studies.

Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

KAUST Repository

Brown, Christopher J.

2015-12-10

Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global dataset of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that: (1) re-analyses of existing time-series state how the existing datasets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates and; (4) that new time series be designed to include detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the

Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain Using Analogue Meteorological Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

B. Faybishenko

2006-01-01

At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Heinke

2013-10-01

Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Numerical analyses of the effect of a biphasic thermosyphon vapor channel sizes on the heat transfer intensity when heat removing from a power transformer of combined heat and power station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nurpeiis Atlant

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Numerical analyses of the effect of a biphasic thermosyphon vapor channel sizes on the heat transfer intensity was conducted when heat removing from an oil tank of a power transformer of combined heat and power station (CHP. The power transformer cooling system by the closed biphasic thermosyphon was proposed. The mathematical modeling of heat transfer and phase transitions of coolant in the thermosyphon was performed. The problem of heat transfer is formulated in dimensionless variables “velocity vorticity vector – current function – temperature” and solved by finite difference method. As a result of numerical simulation it is found that an increase in the vapor channel length from 0.15m to 1m leads to increasing the temperature difference by 3.5 K.

Combining analytiacal frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptiation option

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.J.; Schwilch, G.; Springer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood

Numerical modeling of a snow cover on Hooker Island (Franz Josef Land archipelago

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. S. Sokratov

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Results obtained by simulating snow characteristics with a numerical model of surface heat and moisture exchange SPONSOR are presented. The numerical experiments are carried out for Franz Josef Land with typical Arctic climate conditions. The blizzard evaporation parameter is shown to have great influence on snow depth on territories with high wind speed. This parameter significantly improves the simulation quality of the numerical model. Some discrepancies between evaluated and observed snow depth values can be explained by inaccuracies in precipitation measurements (at least in certain cases and errors in calculations of incoming radiation, mostly due to low accuracy in the cloudiness observations.

Organizational Climate for Successful Aging

Science.gov (United States)

Zacher, Hannes; Yang, Jie

2016-01-01

Research on successful aging at work has neglected contextual resources such as organizational climate, which refers to employees’ shared perceptions of their work environment. We introduce the construct of organizational climate for successful aging (OCSA) and examine it as a buffer of the negative relationship between employee age and focus on opportunities (i.e., beliefs about future goals and possibilities at work). Moreover, we expected that focus on opportunities, in turn, positively predicts job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and motivation to continue working after official retirement age. Data came from 649 employees working in 120 companies (Mage = 44 years, SD = 13). We controlled for organizational tenure, psychological climate for successful aging (i.e., individuals’ perceptions), and psychological and organizational age discrimination climate. Results of multilevel analyses supported our hypotheses. Overall, our findings suggest that OCSA is an important contextual resource for successful aging at work. PMID:27458405

Organizational Climate for Successful Aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Zacher, Hannes; Yang, Jie

2016-01-01

Research on successful aging at work has neglected contextual resources such as organizational climate, which refers to employees' shared perceptions of their work environment. We introduce the construct of organizational climate for successful aging (OCSA) and examine it as a buffer of the negative relationship between employee age and focus on opportunities (i.e., beliefs about future goals and possibilities at work). Moreover, we expected that focus on opportunities, in turn, positively predicts job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and motivation to continue working after official retirement age. Data came from 649 employees working in 120 companies (M age = 44 years, SD = 13). We controlled for organizational tenure, psychological climate for successful aging (i.e., individuals' perceptions), and psychological and organizational age discrimination climate. Results of multilevel analyses supported our hypotheses. Overall, our findings suggest that OCSA is an important contextual resource for successful aging at work.

Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several

Novethic explains the links between climate and finance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-12-01

The COP 21 conference is the stage for UN climate negotiations among countries and has elicited unprecedented involvement by economic and financial players. For more than a year now, Novethic has been analysing and quantifying the move to incorporate the climate into financial management, a movement that counts nearly 1,000 investors representing Euro 30 trillion. Novethic has prepared four quick guides to ending coal investments, green financing, carbon risk and the climate commitments of the systemic banks and insurance companies

Quantitative numerical method for analysing slip traces observed by AFM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veselý, J; Cieslar, M; Coupeau, C; Bonneville, J

2013-01-01

Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is used more and more routinely to study, at the nanometre scale, the slip traces produced on the surface of deformed crystalline materials. Taking full advantage of the quantitative height data of the slip traces, which can be extracted from these observations, requires however an adequate and robust processing of the images. In this paper an original method is presented, which allows the fitting of AFM scan-lines with a specific parameterized step function without any averaging treatment of the original data. This yields a quantitative and full description of the changes in step shape along the slip trace. The strength of the proposed method is established on several typical examples met in plasticity by analysing nano-scale structures formed on the sample surface by emerging dislocations. (paper)

Climate change matters.

Science.gov (United States)

Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

2014-04-01

One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

Hydrogeological flux scenarios at Forsmark. Generic numerical flow simulations and compilation of climatic information for use in the safety analysis SFR1 SAR-08

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vidstrand, Patrik; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Hartikainen, Juha; Svensson, Urban

2007-11-01

In the earlier modelling for SFR-SAFE it was concluded that the groundwater flow would increase with time along with the shoreline displacement. Even though the numerical results are different the same conclusion is drawn after this study. General conclusions from the present study are that: The upper boundary conditions have a significant impact on the groundwater flow in the geosphere. The characteristic of the surface in regards of being a recharge or discharge area affects the results. In general, a discharge area will experience an increase in groundwater flow under changed conditions. The presence of caging fracture zones affects the results, and, for the tested un-frozen SFR situation, the resulting effect is an increase in groundwater flow. Specific conclusions regarding the relative change of groundwater flow due to different surface conditions are that: The permafrost scenarios, along with the development from sporadic permafrost to continuous permafrost, yield increased groundwater flows in unfrozen parts of the domain. The increase is one order of magnitude or less. In the permafrost, the flow is negligible. The ice sheet scenarios yield situations with significantly increased groundwater flow. The results indicate an increase by two to three orders of magnitude. These increased values, however, apply only for short duration intervals. It is possible that such intervals may be only a couple of years. In the selected climate Base variant, repeating the conditions for the last glacial cycle, permafrost conditions occur after 8,000 years. In the climate variant affected by increased greenhouse warming, permafrost conditions do not occur until after more than 50,000 years. In the chosen climate variants, ice sheets reach the Forsmark area and cause significantly increased groundwater flow, after ∼60,000 years or more

Hydrogeological flux scenarios at Forsmark. Generic numerical flow simulations and compilation of climatic information for use in the safety analysis SFR1 SAR-08

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vidstrand, Patrik (Bergab, Goeteborg (SE)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (SE)); Hartikainen, Juha (Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Helsinki (FI)); Svensson, Urban (CFE AB, Karlskrona (SE))

2007-11-15

In the earlier modelling for SFR-SAFE it was concluded that the groundwater flow would increase with time along with the shoreline displacement. Even though the numerical results are different the same conclusion is drawn after this study. General conclusions from the present study are that: The upper boundary conditions have a significant impact on the groundwater flow in the geosphere. The characteristic of the surface in regards of being a recharge or discharge area affects the results. In general, a discharge area will experience an increase in groundwater flow under changed conditions. The presence of caging fracture zones affects the results, and, for the tested un-frozen SFR situation, the resulting effect is an increase in groundwater flow. Specific conclusions regarding the relative change of groundwater flow due to different surface conditions are that: The permafrost scenarios, along with the development from sporadic permafrost to continuous permafrost, yield increased groundwater flows in unfrozen parts of the domain. The increase is one order of magnitude or less. In the permafrost, the flow is negligible. The ice sheet scenarios yield situations with significantly increased groundwater flow. The results indicate an increase by two to three orders of magnitude. These increased values, however, apply only for short duration intervals. It is possible that such intervals may be only a couple of years. In the selected climate Base variant, repeating the conditions for the last glacial cycle, permafrost conditions occur after 8,000 years. In the climate variant affected by increased greenhouse warming, permafrost conditions do not occur until after more than 50,000 years. In the chosen climate variants, ice sheets reach the Forsmark area and cause significantly increased groundwater flow, after approx60,000 years or more

Thermal performance analysis of PCM in refrigerated container envelopes in the Italian context – Numerical modeling and validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Copertaro, Benedetta; Principi, Paolo; Fioretti, Roberto

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A refrigerated container with PCMs was evaluated in the Italian climatic context. • The numerical results were validated by an experimental campaign. • A 4.23% of mean bias was achieved comparing the numerical and experimental results. • PCMs application leads to a reduction in peak heat load of 20%. • An energy rate reduction of 4.65% was obtained in the PCMs added container. - Abstract: Due to external climatic conditions, radiation and temperature, refrigerated containers are subjected to high thermal stresses during storage in yards, warehouses, ships or during transport by rail or road. Moreover the consequent high thermal load has a great influence on both the electric and fuel energy consumption and on combined greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The aim of this research is the theoretical evaluation, using a previously validated Finite Element Method (FEM), of the related energy benefits deriving from the application of PCMs (Phase Change Materials) to a traditional refrigerated container envelope. Specifically the numerical analysis was performed for several kinds of PCMs, climatic conditions and exposures. The study also provides a numerical tool to be used in the prediction of the thermal performance of refrigerated container envelopes with PCM in the Italian context. An experimental analysis was carried out in order to test the accuracy of the numerical model and to validate it. Results show that PCM application to a 20’ ISO container envelope can reduce and shift the daily heat load phases with respect to a traditional envelope fitted only with insulating materials.

A characteristics of East Asian climate using high-resolution regional climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Yhang, Y.

2013-12-01

Climate research, particularly application studies for water, agriculture, forestry, fishery and energy management require fine scale multi-decadal information of meteorological, oceanographic and land states. Unfortunately, spatially and temporally homogeneous multi-decadal observations of these variables in high horizontal resolution are non-existent. Some long term surface records of temperature and precipitation exist, but the number of observation is very limited and the measurements are often contaminated by changes in instrumentation over time. Some climatologically important variables, such as soil moisture, surface evaporation, and radiation are not even measured over most of East Asia. Reanalysis is one approach to obtaining long term homogeneous analysis of needed variables. However, the horizontal resolution of global reanalysis is of the order of 100 to 200 km, too coarse for many application studies. Regional climate models (RCMs) are able to provide valuable regional finescale information, especially in regions where the climate variables are strongly regulated by the underlying topography and the surface heterogeneity. In this study, we will provide accurately downscaled regional climate over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system [GRIMs; Hong et al. 2013]. A mixed layer model is embedded within the GRIMs in order to improve air-sea interaction. A detailed description of the characteristics of the East Asian summer and winter climate will be presented through the high-resolution numerical simulations. The increase in horizontal resolution is expected to provide the high-quality data that can be used in various application areas such as hydrology or environmental model forcing.

Evaluation of climate change impacts on energy demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Taseska, Verica; Markovska, Natasa; Callaway, John M.

2012-01-01

change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal...... electricity production mix, taking into account country’s development plans (without climate change); 2) Climate Change Damage Case, which introduces the climate changes by adjusting the heating and cooling degree days inputs, consistent with the existing national climate scenarios; and 3) Climate Change...... Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages...

Future Climate Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

C. G. Cambell

2004-09-03

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

Climatic controls on diffuse groundwater recharge across Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. V. Barron

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Reviews of field studies of groundwater recharge have attempted to investigate how climate characteristics control recharge, but due to a lack of data have not been able to draw any strong conclusions beyond that rainfall is the major determinant. This study has used numerical modelling for a range of Köppen-Geiger climate types (tropical, arid and temperate to investigate the effect of climate variables on recharge for different soil and vegetation types. For the majority of climate types, the correlation between the modelled recharge and total annual rainfall is weaker than the correlation between recharge and the annual rainfall parameters reflecting rainfall intensity. Under similar soil and vegetation conditions for the same annual rainfall, annual recharge in regions with winter-dominated rainfall is greater than in regions with summer-dominated rainfall. The importance of climate parameters other than rainfall in recharge estimation is highest in the tropical climate type. Mean annual values of solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit show a greater importance in recharge estimation than mean annual values of the daily mean temperature. Climate parameters have the lowest relative importance in recharge estimation in the arid climate type (with cold winters and the temperate climate type. For 75% of all soil, vegetation and climate types investigated, recharge elasticity varies between 2 and 4 indicating a 20% to 40% change in recharge for a 10% change in annual rainfall. Understanding how climate controls recharge under the observed historical climate allows more informed choices of analogue sites if they are to be used for climate change impact assessments.

Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

OpenAIRE

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth...

Numerical simulation of flood barriers

Science.gov (United States)

Srb, Pavel; Petrů, Michal; Kulhavý, Petr

This paper deals with testing and numerical simulating of flood barriers. The Czech Republic has been hit by several very devastating floods in past years. These floods caused several dozens of causalities and property damage reached billions of Euros. The development of flood measures is very important, especially for the reduction the number of casualties and the amount of property damage. The aim of flood control measures is the detention of water outside populated areas and drainage of water from populated areas as soon as possible. For new flood barrier design it is very important to know its behaviour in case of a real flood. During the development of the barrier several standardized tests have to be carried out. Based on the results from these tests numerical simulation was compiled using Abaqus software and some analyses were carried out. Based on these numerical simulations it will be possible to predict the behaviour of barriers and thus improve their design.

The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahman NURKOVIĆ

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been analysed in the paper. So, economy and society in urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina are susceptible to environmental consequences of climate changes. In practice, this means that poorer countries in development of economic activities will suffer most due to climate changes, while some developed countries can be in a position to use new commercial possibilities. Presently, there is a significant scientific consensus that human activity affected the increase of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, respectively the carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbon, as a result of global changes of climate that will probably change dramatically during the next centuries in Bosnia and Herzegovina. More and more intensive industrialisation and urbanisation, as well as tourism, a growing phenomenon of the 21st century, have numerous negative direct, indirect and multiplicative effects on flora and fauna habitats of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For all mentioned above, this paper tries to indicate to a need for more significant investing into tourism development, which is presently at a very low level of development in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the past ten years a dynamical development of tertiary activities in urban and rural areas has been distinguished; among which shopping centres take a significant position. 

Global water resources affected by human interventionss and climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Florke, M.F.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.

2014-01-01

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Schewe, J.; Stacke, T.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; Wisser, D.

2014-01-01

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

What have we learnt from EUPORIAS climate service prototypes?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlo Buontempo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The international effort toward climate services, epitomised by the development of the Global Framework for Climate Services and, more recently the launch of Copernicus Climate Change Service has renewed interest in the users and the role they can play in shaping the services they will eventually use. Here we critically analyse the results of the five climate service prototypes that were developed as part of the EU funded project EUPORIAS.Starting from the experience acquired in each of the projects we attempt to distil a few key lessons which, we believe, will be relevant to the wider community of climate service developers.

A contribution to the thermal and aero-dynamical modelling of the urban micro-climate. Analysis of the water and vegetation impact on the comfort conditions in outdoor spaces; Contribution a la modelisation thermo-aeraulique du microclimat urbain. Caracterisation de l'impact de l'eau et de la vegetation sur les conditions de confort en espaces exterieurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vinet, J.

2000-11-01

In summer, temperatures in cities may rise, thereby inducing the so-called 'urban heat island' and tremendous consequences on outdoor comfort, health risks, pollutant emission and energy consumption. Replacing vegetation and moist surfaces by concrete or asphalt may enhance these problems. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to quantify the impact of vegetation and water on urban micro-climate and comfort through numerical modelling; In the first part, a scientific literature review considers various topics applied to our problem such as urban micro-climate, simulations, urbanism, urban forestry and outdoor thermal comfort. This information is relevant to define and interpret further numerical modelling. Numerical simulations based on the coupling of the SOLENE. thermal program and the N3S CFD code are proposed to model wind flow, air and surface temperatures. The theoretical principles, hypothesis and coupling methodology are presented here. This set of numerical tools is combined in order to help urban or landscape planners, architects and engineers, to analyse the impacts of different projects on micro-climate and on outdoor thermal comfort, under hot summer conditions. To illustrate this approach, an open space in Montpellier (southern France) called the 'Place du Millenaire' and designed by Ricardo Bofill is studied, considering various cases (no vegetation, actual vegetation and vegetation in 30 years). The comparative results demonstrate improvements of urban form, micro-climate and outdoor thermal comfort. (author)

Changing climate and the value of the tea landscape in Assam

Science.gov (United States)

Biggs, E. M.; Gupta, N.; Duncan, J.; Saikia, S. D.

2015-12-01

Tea production has a measurable impact upon millions of people's livelihoods in northeast India. The region is experiencing changes in climate characteristics which are placing added pressure on the tea industry for sustaining livelihoods. To increase understanding of the role of tea within the Assam landscape, this research has engaged with multiple local tea-producing stakeholders. Approximately 65% of Assam's tea is produced in large plantations, with the remaining 35% produced in smallholdings. Questionnaires were used to obtain information on land management practices operationalised by plantation managers and smallholders. Focus group sessions using the Delphi technique were conducted with tea workers (labourers for the plantations) to ascertain the level of importance of the tea sector to sustaining their livelihoods. Questionnaires and focus group surveys also attempted to establish stakeholder understanding of climate change. Data were analysed using spatial statistics to investigate intra- and inter-region variation in responses. Focus group responses were categorised to determine the livelihood asset base available to tea workers within plantations, with patterns of (dis)similarity observed spatially. Results indicate that land management practices (e.g. fertiliser and pesticide application), tea processing methods (e.g. onsite factory and energy generation), and social provisions for tea workers (e.g. sanitation and education facilities) varied greatly across the main tea growing regions of Assam. Tea workers listed numerous environmental and social factors as important for sustaining livelihoods, with the top ranked factors similar across some plantations (e.g. drinking water availability and access). Plantation managers are highly concerned with how climate conditions are affecting tea production, and although workers were aware of climate change issues in some plantations, socioeconomic conditions seemed of more pressing concern to their livelihoods.

Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephanie S. Gervasi

2010-02-01

Full Text Available As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

2016-01-01

Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

OpenAIRE

Shankar Adhikari; Himlal Baral; Craig Nitschke

2018-01-01

Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS) to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being...

Can increased organic consumption mitigate climate changes?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn; Andersen, Laura Mørch; Christensen, Tove

2014-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evidence for a positive correlation between increased consumption of organic products and potential climate change mitigation via decreased consumption of meat and it is discussed to what extent organic consumption is motivated by climate...... and household heating are perceived as more important strategies. Research limitations/implications – Other food-related mitigation strategies could be investigated. The climate effect of different diets – and how to motivate consumers to pursue them – could be investigated. Individual as opposed to household...... consumers. As some consumers believe that climate change can be mitigated by consuming organic food, the authors propose that this is taken into account in the development of organic farming. Originality/value – The authors propose a shift from analysing the climate-friendliness of production to addressing...

Authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Yuane; Konold, Timothy R; Cornell, Dewey

2016-06-01

This study tested the association between school-wide measures of an authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates in a statewide sample of 315 high schools. Regression models at the school level of analysis used teacher and student measures of disciplinary structure, student support, and academic expectations to predict overall high school dropout rates. Analyses controlled for school demographics of school enrollment size, percentage of low-income students, percentage of minority students, and urbanicity. Consistent with authoritative school climate theory, moderation analyses found that when students perceive their teachers as supportive, high academic expectations are associated with lower dropout rates. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979–2015

OpenAIRE

Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

2017-01-01

The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in...

Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, Darwin C.; Behl, Richard J.

2006-01-01

Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)

Case study Sylt - Consequences and integrated assessment of climate change. Final report; Klimaaenderung und Kueste. Fallstudie Sylt - Integrative Analyse und Bewertung der Folgen von Klimaaenderungen. Endbericht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fraenzle, O; Sterr, H; Daschkeit, A

2001-05-01

This final report deals with the structure of the 'case study Sylt' against the background of climate change and possible consequences. In cooperation with the other projects of the case study an instrument is developed which maintains interdisciplinary communication and cooperation. First the 'System Sylt' is described to identify and specify the relevant aspects of functional relationships between the natural and the social system. The focal points are (1) the first-order impacts of climate change, (2) the potential ecological changes in the near future and (3) the image of the North-Sea island Sylt. With regard to the image of Sylt we find some discrepancies existing between a statical respectively a dynamical view; these discrepancies are inherent parts of the future development. All results are seen in the context of 'Integrated Coastal Zone Management' (ICZM) to derive general and specific recommendations for political action and further research. (orig.) [German] Vor dem Hintergrund von Annahmen bezueglich der zukuenftigen klimatischen Entwicklung werden die Konzeption sowie die Vorgehensweise der integrativen Analyse im Rahmen der Fallstudie Sylt dargestellt. Unter Anbindung an das Sylt-GIS wird ein Instrument entwickelt und erprobt, das die (bislang seltene) fachuebergreifende Analyse von Klimafolgen unterstuetzt. Diese muendet zunaechst in eine Darstellung des 'Systems Sylt' auf der Grundlage der wichtigsten Prozesse und Randbedingungen. Die auf dieser Basis identifizierten Kernberichte des 'Systems Sylt' werden in einem weiteren exemplarisch und unter Einbezug des in den disziplinaeren Teilvorhaben der Fallstudie erarbeiteten Wissens einer vertiefenden Analyse unterzogen. Dabei wird erstens auf den Bereich der Folgen eines moeglichen Klimawandels eingegangen, zweitens auf vergangene und zukuenftig moegliche oekologische Veraenderungen und drittens auf das Sylt-Image. Durch eine detailliertere Analyse des Sylt-Image kann aufgezeigt werden, dass sich eine

Case study Sylt - Consequences and integrated assessment of climate change. Final report; Klimaaenderung und Kueste. Fallstudie Sylt - Integrative Analyse und Bewertung der Folgen von Klimaaenderungen. Endbericht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fraenzle, O.; Sterr, H.; Daschkeit, A.

2001-05-01

This final report deals with the structure of the 'case study Sylt' against the background of climate change and possible consequences. In cooperation with the other projects of the case study an instrument is developed which maintains interdisciplinary communication and cooperation. First the 'System Sylt' is described to identify and specify the relevant aspects of functional relationships between the natural and the social system. The focal points are (1) the first-order impacts of climate change, (2) the potential ecological changes in the near future and (3) the image of the North-Sea island Sylt. With regard to the image of Sylt we find some discrepancies existing between a statical respectively a dynamical view; these discrepancies are inherent parts of the future development. All results are seen in the context of 'Integrated Coastal Zone Management' (ICZM) to derive general and specific recommendations for political action and further research. (orig.) [German] Vor dem Hintergrund von Annahmen bezueglich der zukuenftigen klimatischen Entwicklung werden die Konzeption sowie die Vorgehensweise der integrativen Analyse im Rahmen der Fallstudie Sylt dargestellt. Unter Anbindung an das Sylt-GIS wird ein Instrument entwickelt und erprobt, das die (bislang seltene) fachuebergreifende Analyse von Klimafolgen unterstuetzt. Diese muendet zunaechst in eine Darstellung des 'Systems Sylt' auf der Grundlage der wichtigsten Prozesse und Randbedingungen. Die auf dieser Basis identifizierten Kernberichte des 'Systems Sylt' werden in einem weiteren exemplarisch und unter Einbezug des in den disziplinaeren Teilvorhaben der Fallstudie erarbeiteten Wissens einer vertiefenden Analyse unterzogen. Dabei wird erstens auf den Bereich der Folgen eines moeglichen Klimawandels eingegangen, zweitens auf vergangene und zukuenftig moegliche oekologische Veraenderungen und drittens auf das Sylt-Image. Durch eine detailliertere Analyse des

Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

2012-05-01

The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers and U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center—Annual report for 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Weiskopf, Sarah R.; Varela Minder, Elda; Padgett, Holly A.

2017-05-19

Introduction2016 was an exciting year for the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC). In recognition of our ongoing efforts to raise awareness and provide the scientific data and tools needed to address the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, ecosystems, and people, NCCWSC and the CSCs received an honorable mention in the first ever Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources sponsored by the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plant Climate Adaptation Strategy’s Joint Implementation Working Group. The recognition is a reflection of our contribution to numerous scientific workshops and publications, provision of training for students and early career professionals, and work with Tribes and indigenous communities to improve climate change resilience across the Nation. In this report, we highlight some of the activities that took place throughout the NCCWSC and CSC network in 2016.

Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change

Science.gov (United States)

Ayers, Mark A.; Wolock, David M.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Tasker, Gary D.

1994-01-01

Because of the greenhouse effect, projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might cause global warming, which in turn could result in changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration and in increases in sea level. This report describes the greenhouse effect; discusses the problems and uncertainties associated with the detection, prediction, and effects of climate change; and presents the results of sensitivity analyses of how climate change might affect water resources in the Delaware River basin. Sensitivity analyses suggest that potentially serious shortfalls of certain water resources in the basin could result if some scenarios for climate change come true . The results of model simulations of the basin streamflow demonstrate the difficulty in distinguishing the effects that climate change versus natural climate variability have on streamflow and water supply . The future direction of basin changes in most water resources, furthermore, cannot be precisely determined because of uncertainty in current projections of regional temperature and precipitation . This large uncertainty indicates that, for resource planning, information defining the sensitivities of water resources to a range of climate change is most relevant . The sensitivity analyses could be useful in developing contingency plans for evaluating and responding to changes, should they occur.

A Unique Climate and Energy Policy - Key Problems and Possible Solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granic, G.

2016-01-01

This paper analyses problems of independent application of climate and energy policy. In order to accomplish the goals from The Paris Climate Agreement, an agreement about the goals and measures for climate preservation from 2015, a unique climate and energy policy is suggested, as well as the measures for the implementation of it. To achieve no CO2 and GHG emissions in the energy sector, to have it be completely market based, energy efficient and technologically approved, a unique climate and energy policy is a necessary option and the only viable option to accomplish previously agreed climate goals.(author).

Recursive inter-generational utility in global climate risk modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Minh, Ha-Duong [Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED-CNRS), 75 - Paris (France); Treich, N. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LEERNA), 31 - Toulouse (France)

2003-07-01

This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to inter-temporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to inter-temporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. (author)

Climate change and amphibians

Science.gov (United States)

Corn, P.S.

2005-01-01

Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

Climate change and amphibians

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corn, P. S.

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

Climate Change & Social Justice: Why We Should Care

Science.gov (United States)

Nesbitt, Nathan T.

2015-03-01

In the past several years the global impacts brought about by climate change have become increasingly apparent through the advent of numerous natural disasters. In these events the social costs of climate change have materialized demonstrating high costs in lives, livelihoods, and equity. Due to geographic bad-luck many of the countries most affected by climate change are those that contributed least, a challenge that's exacerbated by a lack of robust infrastructure in these countries. Wealthy nations remain at risk themselves and incidents such as Hurricanes Sandy & Katrina have demonstrated that in times of crisis even institutions like the Red Cross will abandon the poor to their deaths. As necessary action on climate change would cost the fossil fuel industry 20 trillion, money in politics has stymied action. Recently, however, a groundswell grassroots movement (e.g. People's Climate March in NYC) and great strides in energy technology and policy have begun to create necessary change. Reports quantifying the impacts of climate change will be discussed, as well as an update on the current state of the global climate justice movement. The important contributions from scientists to this movement will be highlighted. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. (DGE-1258923).

Equilibrium of vegetation and climate at the European rear edge. A reference for climate change planning in mountainous Mediterranean regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Labourdette, Diego; Martínez, Felipe; Martín-López, Berta; Montes, Carlos; Pineda, Francisco D

2011-05-01

Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe's highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed.

Proceeding of 1999-workshop on MHD computations 'study on numerical methods related to plasma confinement'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kako, T.; Watanabe, T.

2000-06-01

This is the proceeding of 'study on numerical methods related to plasma confinement' held in National Institute for Fusion Science. In this workshop, theoretical and numerical analyses of possible plasma equilibria with their stability properties are presented. There are also various lectures on mathematical as well as numerical analyses related to the computational methods for fluid dynamics and plasma physics. Separate abstracts were presented for 13 of the papers in this report. The remaining 6 were considered outside the subject scope of INIS. (J.P.N.)

Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Haugen, Jan Erik; Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John; Jarlset, Thore

2011-01-01

The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

Economics and management of climate change: risks, mitigation and adaptation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Antes, Ralf

2008-01-01

... climate change poses risks to societies and companies, nor about adequate strategies to cope with these risks. Bringing together scholars from environmental economics, political science, and business management, this book describes, analyses and evaluates climate change risks and responses of societies and companies. The book c...

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

AMS analyses at ANSTO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lawson, E.M. [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Lucas Heights, NSW (Australia). Physics Division

1998-03-01

The major use of ANTARES is Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) with {sup 14}C being the most commonly analysed radioisotope - presently about 35 % of the available beam time on ANTARES is used for {sup 14}C measurements. The accelerator measurements are supported by, and dependent on, a strong sample preparation section. The ANTARES AMS facility supports a wide range of investigations into fields such as global climate change, ice cores, oceanography, dendrochronology, anthropology, and classical and Australian archaeology. Described here are some examples of the ways in which AMS has been applied to support research into the archaeology, prehistory and culture of this continent`s indigenous Aboriginal peoples. (author)

AMS analyses at ANSTO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawson, E.M.

1998-01-01

The major use of ANTARES is Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) with 14 C being the most commonly analysed radioisotope - presently about 35 % of the available beam time on ANTARES is used for 14 C measurements. The accelerator measurements are supported by, and dependent on, a strong sample preparation section. The ANTARES AMS facility supports a wide range of investigations into fields such as global climate change, ice cores, oceanography, dendrochronology, anthropology, and classical and Australian archaeology. Described here are some examples of the ways in which AMS has been applied to support research into the archaeology, prehistory and culture of this continent's indigenous Aboriginal peoples. (author)

Temperature and extreme rainfalls on France in a climatic change scenario