WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate models energy

  1. Energy balance climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

  2. Energy-balance climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

  3. Analysing climate impact on energy demand using the MOLAND model

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xiaochen; Twumasi, Bright Osei

    2008-01-01

    The importance and contribution of climate to energy demand are discussed. A linear regression model is developed to analyse future energy demand corresponding to climate change. The methodology for spatial analysis and integration to MOLAND are also provided in order to investigate possible consequences of different urban development paths on energy consumption patterns.

  4. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  5. Geospatial Issues in Energy-Climate Modeling: Implications for Modelers, Economists, Climate Scientists and Policy Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newmark, R. L.; Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Short, W.

    2010-12-01

    Accurate characterizations of renewable energy technologies, particularly wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, require an increasingly sophisticated understanding of location-specific attributes, including generation or production costs and the cost of transmission or transportation to a point of use, and climate induced changes to the resource base. Capturing these site-specific characteristics in national and global models presents both unique opportunities and challenges. National and global decisions, ideally, should be informed by geospatially rich data and analysis. Here we describe issues related to and initial advances in representing renewable energy technologies in global models, and the resulting implications for climate stabilization analysis and global assessments, including IPCC’s Assessment Round 5 and IEA’s World Energy Outlook.

  6. Modelling the effect of UK energy policy and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ronald Wai Ho

    The central aim of this thesis is to investigate various UK energy policy documents and identify how they are implanted to the main energy consuming sectors in order to achieve a reduction of 60 percent of carbon emissions by 2050. This has lead to two key questions: What are the pros and cons of the various UK energy policy documents What are the impacts of currently proposed environmental policies in UK on economic growth in the 21st century To answer these questions, the following four energy policy documents are reviewed. UK Energy White Paper Energy Efficiency Commitment Climate Change Levy and UK Emissions Trading Scheme Renewable Obligations Also, the following macro energy modelling work is also investigated: Markal Model E3ME The UK Energy White Paper has shown the government is being very eager to solve the climate change and its associated problems by reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 60 percent by 2050. The four documents have illustrated the UK government main strategies to tackle climate change they are based on developing new technology, improving energy efficiency and to increase the use of renewables considerably. The analysis of these policies and macro-scale model has forecasted that the UK is going to have a slow down economic growth due to the environmental pressure.

  7. Projecting Wind Energy Potential Under Climate Change with Ensemble of Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, A.; Shashikanth, K.; Ghosh, S.; Mukherjee, P. P.

    2013-12-01

    Recent years have witnessed an increasing global concern over energy sustainability and security, triggered by a number of issues, such as (though not limited to): fossil fuel depletion, energy resource geopolitics, economic efficiency versus population growth debate, environmental concerns and climate change. Wind energy is a renewable and sustainable form of energy in which wind turbines convert the kinetic energy of wind into electrical energy. Global warming and differential surface heating may significantly impact the wind velocity and hence the wind energy potential. Sustainable design of wind mills requires understanding the impacts of climate change on wind energy potential, which we evaluate here with multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs). GCMs simulate the climate variables globally considering the greenhouse emission scenarios provided as Representation Concentration path ways (RCPs). Here we use new generation climate model outputs obtained from Coupled model Intercomparison Project 5(CMIP5). We first compute the wind energy potential with reanalysis data (NCEP/ NCAR), at a spatial resolution of 2.50, where the gridded data is fitted to Weibull distribution and with the Weibull parameters, the wind energy densities are computed at different grids. The same methodology is then used, to CMIP5 outputs (resultant of U-wind and V-wind) of MRI, CMCC, BCC, CanESM, and INMCM4 for historical runs. This is performed separately for four seasons globally, MAM, JJA, SON and DJF. We observe the muti-model average of wind energy density for historic period has significant bias with respect to that of reanalysis product. Here we develop a quantile based superensemble approach where GCM quantiles corresponding to selected CDF values are regressed to reanalysis data. It is observed that this regression approach takes care of both, bias in GCMs and combination of GCMs. With superensemble, we observe that the historical wind energy density resembles quite well with

  8. The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David

    2004-01-01

    A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold

  9. Climate, greenhouse effect, energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The book has sections on the sun as energy source, the earth climate and it's changes and factors influencing this, the greenhouse effect on earth and other planets, greenhouse gases and aerosols and their properties and importance, historic climate and paleoclimate, climatic models and their uses and limitations, future climate, consequences of climatic changes, uncertainties regarding the climate and measures for reducing the greenhouse effect. Finally there are sections on energy and energy resources, the use, sources such as fossil fuels, nuclear power, renewable resources, heat pumps, energy storage and environmental aspects and the earth magnetic field is briefly surveyed

  10. Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

  11. Review of models on energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Energy Modeling Forum recently has initiated a global climate change project. The purpose of the project is to summarize the work which has already been done on this topic and to evaluate the quality of the work. Several critical issues arise in any effort to make credible estimates of the cost of greenhouse control strategies. First, a worldwide modeling framework must be developed because carbon emissions from particular regions affect the global atmosphere. Because the data available on developing countries is quite poor at present, future efforts should focus on new data collection and modeling efforts in these regions. Second, all the major greenhouse gases - CO2, CFCs, methane and N2O - and not just carbon dioxide must be considered in future analyses. It is the overall concentration of all these different greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that ultimately will lead to global climate change. Third, an effective means for analyzing the various greenhouse gas control strategies must be developed. In order to successfully carry out the final task, a method must be developed which integrates a top-down macro-economic approach with a bottom-up process engineering approach. When implementing the macro-economic approach, one must choose plausible ranges for future economic and population growth rates. The reason for this is that even small changes in these driving factors can have huge impacts on emissions projections over the 100 or more year time frames required to address the greenhouse gas problem. The implementation of the process engineering approach requires: an accurate characterization of the costs, performance and availability of current and likely future technologies; an assessment of the likely barriers to technology transfer of both existing and new technologies, particularly from the developed to the developing countries; and an evaluation of the impact of energy prices and greenhouse gas policies on new technological development

  12. Multi-scale modelling to improve climate data for building energy models

    OpenAIRE

    Mauree, Dasaraden; Kämpf, Jérôme Henri; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis

    2015-01-01

    The recent AR5 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has again stressed on the need for mitigation and adaptation measures to tackle issues related to climate change. Tackling future urban planning and energy efficiency in the building sector is crucial as they account for almost 40% of energy use in developed countries. A one-dimensional canopy interface module (CIM) was recently developed to improve the surface representation in meteorological models and to enhance boun...

  13. A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage

  14. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  15. An energy balance model of carbon's effect on climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Benney, Lucas

    2015-01-01

    Due to climate change, the interest of studying our climatic system using mathematical modeling has become tremendous in recent years. One well-known model is Budyko's system, which represents the coupled evolution of two variables, the ice-line and the average earth surface temperature. The system depends on natural parameters, such as the earth albedo, and the amount A of carbon in the atmosphere. We introduce a 3-dimensional extension of this model in which we regard A as the third coupled variable of the system. We analyze the phase space and dependence on parameters, looking for Hopf bifurcations and the birth of cycling behavior. We interpret the cycles as climatic oscillations triggered by the sensitivity in our regulation of carbon emissions at extreme temperatures.

  16. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  17. Selecting representative climate stations for use in a building energy model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadley, D.L.

    1993-11-01

    An energy impacts model is being refined to support ongoing development of major energy conservation standards for US commercial buildings. When completed, the model will be used to evaluate potential impacts (energy savings and associated costs) of implementing the proposed standards. To work as intended, the model must contain a set of climate stations to represent the wide range of climatic conditions that occur across the United States. Researchers developed a procedure that employs a user-selectable climate database (1) to objectively identify, using a clustering technique, a unique set of climate zones for a specified geographical area, and (2) to specify the single most representative station for each climate zone. The process provides a more objective, technically sound basis for selecting climate zones and stations, thereby minimizing researcher bias. The procedure and its application to US energy conservation standards development activities are described in this paper.

  18. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  19. Combining climate and energy policies: synergies or antagonism? Modeling interactions with energy efficiency instruments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lecuyer, Oskar [EDF R and D - Efese, 1 av du General de Gaulle, 92141 Clamart (France)] [CIRED, 45 bis av de la Belle-Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne (France); Bibas, Ruben [CIRED, 45 bis av de la Belle-Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne (France)

    2012-01-15

    In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce GHG emissions and although a price on carbon tends also to give the right incentives for RE and EE, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single framework and to quantify the antagonistic effects of the joint promotion of RE and EE. We also show and quantify the effects of this joint promotion on ETS permit price, on wholesale market price and on energy production levels. (authors)

  20. Combining climate and energy policies: synergies or antagonism? Modeling interactions with energy efficiency instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce GHG emissions and although a price on carbon tends also to give the right incentives for RE and EE, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single framework and to quantify the antagonistic effects of the joint promotion of RE and EE. We also show and quantify the effects of this joint promotion on ETS permit price, on wholesale market price and on energy production levels. (authors)

  1. The impacts of climate change on energy: An aggregate expenditure model for the US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper develops a theoretical model to measure the climate change impacts to the energy sector. Welfare effects are approximately equal to the resulting change in expenditures on energy and buildings. Using micro data on individuals and firms across the United States, energy expenditures are regressed on climate and other control variables to estimate both short-run and long-run climate response functions. The analysis suggests that energy expenditures have a quadratic U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. Future warming of 2 C is predicted to cause annual damages of about $6 billion but increases of 5 C would increase damages to almost $30 billion

  2. Climate modeling at Manitoba Hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper gives an outline of climate modeling at Manitoba Hydro. Manitoba Hydro is studying climate change because it affects water supply and energy demand. Hence climate change must be addressed in planning and operation of hydropower projects as well as regulatory and compliance issues. The study has developed a series of climate change scenarios based on the Global Climate Models

  3. Energetics of IPCC4AR Climate Models: Energy Balance and Meridional Enthalpy Transports

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2009-01-01

    We consider the climate simulations performed using pre-industrial and SRESA1B scenarios and analyse the outputs of the state-of-the-art models included in IPCC4AR. For control simulations, large energy biases are present for several models both when global climate budgets and when energy budgets of the atmospheric, oceanic, and land subdomains are considered. The energy biases depend on the imperfect closure of the energy cycle in the fluid components of the climate system and on issues in the treatment of phase transitions and heat fluxes over land. Additionally, the consequence of a positive global energy bias, which is what most models feature, is the underestimation of the thermodynamic emission temperature of the planet and of the globally averaged surface temperature. This may help explaining the cold bias of climate models. Models agree on the representation of meridional enthalpy transports in terms of location of the peaks of the total and atmospheric transports, whereas quantitative disagreements o...

  4. Energy-climate-forest modelling for integrated policy analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Siljander, Riikka

    2016-01-01

    Increased concern about global warming has led to an intensified search for new and efficient means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). So far, forests have been part of climate policies mainly as a source of bioenergy which can substitute for fossil fuels. However, forests constitute also significant sinks and sources of carbon dioxide, which affect the atmospheric carbon balance. This has led to an ongoing debate on whether and how the changes in forest carbon stocks should be taken i...

  5. Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.00C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

  6. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  7. The Importance of Simulation Workflow and Data Management in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bader, D. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project is concluding its first year. Supported by the Office of Science in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), its vision is to be "an ongoing, state-of-the-science Earth system modeling, modeling simulation and prediction project that optimizes the use of DOE laboratory resources to meet the science needs of the nation and the mission needs of DOE." Included in the "laboratory resources," is a large investment in computational, network and information technologies that will be utilized to both build better and more accurate climate models and broadly disseminate the data they generate. Current model diagnostic analysis and data dissemination technologies will not scale to the size of the simulations and the complexity of the models envisioned by ACME and other top tier international modeling centers. In this talk, the ACME Workflow component plans to meet these future needs will be described and early implementation examples will be highlighted.

  8. A Didactic Model of the Seasonal Cycle in Energy Fluxes and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, A.; Battisti, D.

    2009-12-01

    In the annual mean, the polar regions receive a deficit of solar insolation relative to the global average. The local energy budget is balanced primarily by atmospheric heat transport into the region, with smaller contributions from ocean heat transport and anomalously low outgoing longwave radiation (relative to the global average). In contrast, the annual cycle features large seasonal anomalies (departures from the local annual average) in solar insolation in the polar regions that are primarily balanced by ocean heat storage anomalies; changes in meridional heat transport, emitted long wave radiation, and atmospheric heat storage play a decreasingly important role in the seasonal energy balance. Land-ocean contrasts also have a large impact on the seasonal energetics of the polar climate system. Over the ocean, zonal heat transport from the land domain is maximized during the summer, and the sum of the insolation and zonal heat transport anomalies is balanced by ocean heat storage. In contrast, over the land, the primary summertime balance is excess solar insolation balanced by an enhanced zonal heat export. In this study we examine the global scale climate and the aforementioned seasonal cycle of energy fluxes using an aquaplanet atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean and a simplified energy balance model that interacts with the underlying ocean. The gross climate and seasonal energetics in both models are highly sensitive to the specification of ocean mixed layer depth. The observed seasonal cycle of energy fluxes and the land and ocean temperatures are also replicated in a simplified energy balance model that includes land-ocean contrast and the hemispheric differences in fractional land area. The sensitivity of the seasonal cycle in climate (atmosphere and ocean temperatures) - and in the gross partitioning of the mix of energy flux processes that determine the climate - to the fractional land area is further explored in an ensemble of

  9. Climate of the Greenland ice sheet using a high-resolution climate model - Part 2: Near-surface climate and energy balance

    OpenAIRE

    Ettema, J.; Van De Broeke, M. R.; E. van Meijgaard; van de Berg, W. J.

    2010-01-01

    The spatial variability of near-surface variables and surface energy balance components over the Greenland ice sheet are presented, using the output of a regional atmospheric climate model for the period 1958–2008. The model was evaluated in Part 1 of this paper.

    The near-surface temperature over the ice sheet is affected by surface elevation, latitude, longitude, large-scale and small-scale advection, occurrence of summer melt and mesoscale topographical features. The at...

  10. The global energy budget with a regional climate model over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiacchio, Marc; Solmon, Fabien; Giorgi, Filippo; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.

    2013-04-01

    With a greater focus recently placed on regional climate modeling for a better understanding of regional climate processes, knowledge of the earth's radiation balance is crucial in these models as it plays a key role as driver of the climate system. Thus, this study evaluates both the longwave and shortwave components of the radiation budget at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) for the present day period over Europe using simulations from the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations will be assessed by comparing them to radiative fluxes from satellite derived and ground based observations. These data include those from reanalysis products such as ERA40 and the NASA/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Project, which provides global TOA, atmospheric and surface shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes for various uses including detecting climate trends with high precision. Additional radiative fluxes for comparison to the simulated ones, particularly at the TOA, will include the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) directly measured fluxes that are still ongoing on three separate satellite missions. Highly accurate ground based measurements, such as the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), will also be used for assessing the surface modeled fluxes. The evaluation of the regional model will be further discussed with sensitivity experiments to determine the dependence and impact of climate parameters such as cloud fraction, planetary and surface albedo and surface temperature on the radiation budget taking into account their errors. This analysis will contribute to the usefulness of the regional model for not only evaluating the radiation budget but its determination to simulate the climate as well and its importance within the research community.

  11. Evaluating the global energy budget with a regional climate model over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiacchio, M.; Solmon, F.; Giorgi, F.; Stackhouse, P.

    2012-04-01

    With a greater focus recently placed on regional climate modeling for a better understanding of regional climate processes, knowledge of the earth's radiation balance is crucial in these models as it plays a key role as driver of the climate system. Thus, this study evaluates both the longwave and shortwave components of the radiation budget at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) for the present day period over Europe using simulations from the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations will be assessed by comparing them to radiative fluxes from satellite derived and ground based observations. These data include those from reanalysis products such as ERA40 and the NASA/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) Project, which provides global TOA, atmospheric and surface shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes for various uses including detecting climate trends with high precision. Additional radiative fluxes for comparison to the simulated ones, particularly at the TOA, will include the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) directly measured fluxes that are still ongoing on three separate satellite missions. Highly accurate ground based measurements, such as the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), will also be used for assessing the surface modeled fluxes. The evaluation of the regional model will be further discussed with sensitivity experiments to determine the dependence and impact of climate parameters such as cloud fraction, planetary and surface albedo and surface temperature on the radiation budget taking into account their errors. This analysis will contribute to the usefulness of the regional model for not only evaluating the radiation budget but its determination to simulate the climate as well and its importance within the research community.

  12. A Combined Energy and Geoengineering Optimization Model (CEAGOM) for Climate Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anasis, John George

    One of the greatest challenges that will face humanity in the 21 st century is the issue of climate change brought about by emissions of greenhouse gases. Energy use is one of the primary sources of greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is also one of the most important contributors to improved human welfare over the past two centuries and will continue to be so for years to come. This quandary has led a number of researchers to suggest that geoengineering may be required in order to allow for continued use of fossil fuels while at the same time mitigating the effects of the associated greenhouse gas emissions on the global climate. The goal of this research was to develop a model that would allow decision-makers and policy analysts to assess the optimal mix of energy and geoengineering resources needed to meet global or regional energy demand at the lowest cost while accounting for appropriate emissions, greenhouse gas concentration, or temperature rise constraints. The resulting software model is called the Combined Energy and Geoengineering Optimization Model (CEAGOM). CEAGOM was then used to analyze the recently announced U.S.-China emissions agreement and to assess what the optimal global energy resource mix might be over the course of the 21 st century, including the associated potential need for geoengineering. These analyses yielded optimal mixes of energy and geoengineering resources that could be used to inform regional and global energy and climate management strategies.

  13. Informing energy and climate policies using energy systems models insights from scenario analysis increasing the evidence base

    CERN Document Server

    Giannakidis, George; Ó Gallachóir, Brian; Tosato, GianCarlo

    2015-01-01

    This book highlights how energy-system models are used to underpin and support energy and climate mitigation policy decisions at national, multi-country and global levels. It brings together, for the first time in one volume, a range of methodological approaches and case studies of good modeling practice on a national and international scale from the IEA-ETSAP energy technology initiative. It provides insights for the reader into the rich and varied applications of energy-system models and the underlying methodologies and policy questions they can address. The book demonstrates how these mode

  14. A 2D climate energy balance model coupled with a 3D deep ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ildefonso Diaz

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available We study a three dimensional climate model which represents the coupling of the mean surface temperature with the ocean temperature. We prove the existence of a bounded weak solution by a fixed point argument.

  15. Modeling and simulation of the energy use in an occupied residential building in cold climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► An overview of the energy-characteristics based on illustrations in graphical figures. ► Figures to support identification and validation energy refurbishment measures. ► Emphasizing energy efficiency measures in early stage of building design. -- Abstract: In order to reduce the energy use in the building sector there is a demand for tools that can identify significant building energy performance parameters. In the work introduced in this paper presents a methodology, based on a simulation module and graphical figures, for interactive investigations of the building energy performance. The building energy use simulation program is called TEKLA and is using EN832 with an improved procedure in calculating the heat loss through the floor and the solar heat gain. The graphical figures are simple and are illustrating the savings based on retrofit measures and climate conditions. The accuracy of the TEKLA simulation was investigated on a typical single-family building in Sweden for a period of time in a space heating demand of relatively cold and mild climate. The model was found applicable for relative investigations. Further, the methodology was applied on a typical single family reference building. The climate data from three locations in Sweden were collected and a set of relevant measures were studied. The investigated examples illustrate how decisions in the early stages of the building design process can have decisive importance on the final building energy performance.

  16. Climate-Energy Nexus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sayler, Gary; Gentry, Randall; Zhuang, Jie

    2010-07-01

    The 140-page published proceedings of the workshop include individual articles and PowerPoint slides for all workshop presentations. The proceedings also contain pertinent background information on the China-US Joint Research Center, partnering organizations, and workshop goals and objectives. Overall, the workshop increased the understanding of the impacts of climate change on energy use and renewable energy production as well as the complex relationships among land use, energy production, and ecological restoration. The workshop served as an international platform for scientists and students of different research backgrounds to develop a unified perspective on energy and climate relationships. Such understanding will benefit future cooperation between China and the US in mitigating global climate change. The workshop’s agenda, which is highly interdisciplinary, explored many potential opportunities for international collaboration in ecosystem management, climate modeling, greenhouse gas emissions, and bioenergy sustainability. International research groups have been suggested in the areas of genomes and biotechnology of energy plants, sustainable management of soil and water resources, carbon sequestration, and microbial processes for ecological cycles. The project has attracted considerable attention from institutes beyond the China-US Joint Research Center partners, and several of them (such as Institute of Qing-Tibet Plateau Research, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS) have expressed interest in joining the partnership. In addition, the workshop played a significant role in facilitating establishment of private-public partnerships between government and private bioenergy companies (such as L.R. Shugarts and Associates, Inc.), including seed providers (Blade Energy Crops, Thousand Oaks, CA), pilot demonstration projects at coal-producing cities (e.g., Huaibei, Anhui province, China), and the development of methodology

  17. Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

  18. TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

  19. Application of an Integrated Assessment Model with state-level resolution for examining strategies for addressing air, climate and energy goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change, and energy goals. GCAM includes technology-rich representations of the energy, transportati...

  20. A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • This paper introduces the design of a hybrid energy-economy model, GTEM-C. • The model offers a unified tool to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. • Results are presented on global energy transformation due to carbon mitigation. • Electrification with renewable energies can contain the spiking of carbon prices. - Abstract: This paper introduces the design of the CSIRO variant of the Global Trade and Environment model (GTEM-C). GTEM-C is a hybrid model that combines the top-down macroeconomic representation of a computable general equilibrium model with the bottom-up engineering details of energy production. The model features detailed accounting for global energy flows that are embedded in traded energy goods, and it offers a unified framework to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. As an illustrative example, we present simulation results on global energy transformation under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative carbon pathways 4.5 and 8.5. By testing the model’s sensitivity to the relevant parameter, we find that the pace of electrification will significantly contain the spiking of carbon prices because electricity can be produced from carbon-free or less carbon-intensive technologies. The decoupling of energy use and carbon footprint, due to the uptake of clean electricity technologies, such as nuclear, wind, solar, and carbon capture and storage, allows the world to maintain high level of energy consumption, which is essential to economic growth

  1. Liquid water on Mars - An energy balance climate model for CO2/H2O atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffert, M. I.; Callegari, A. J.; Hsieh, C. T.; Ziegler, W.

    1981-01-01

    A simple climatic model is developed for a Mars atmosphere containing CO2 and sufficient liquid water to account for the observed hydrologic surface features by the existence of a CO2/H2O greenhouse effect. A latitude-resolved climate model originally devised for terrestrial climate studies is applied to Martian conditions, with the difference between absorbed solar flux and emitted long-wave flux to space per unit area attributed to the divergence of the meridional heat flux and the poleward heat flux assumed to equal the atmospheric eddy heat flux. The global mean energy balance is calculated as a function of atmospheric pressure to assess the CO2/H2O greenhouse liquid water hypothesis, and some latitude-resolved cases are examined in detail in order to clarify the role of atmospheric transport and temperature-albedo feedback. It is shown that the combined CO2/H2O greenhouse at plausible early surface pressures may account for climates hot enough to support a hydrological cycle and running water at present-day insolation and visible albedo levels.

  2. Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We analyse a large number of multi-century pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate relationships between: net top-of-atmosphere radiation (TOA), globally averaged surface temperature (GST), and globally integrated ocean heat content (OHC) on decadal timescales. Consistent with previous studies, we find that large trends (∼0.3 K dec−1) in GST can arise from internal climate variability and that these trends are generally an unreliable indicator of TOA over the same period. In contrast, trends in total OHC explain 95% or more of the variance in TOA for two-thirds of the models analysed; emphasizing the oceans’ role as Earth’s primary energy store. Correlation of trends in total system energy (TE ≡ time integrated TOA) against trends in OHC suggests that for most models the ocean becomes the dominant term in the planetary energy budget on a timescale of about 12 months. In the context of the recent pause in global surface temperature rise, we investigate the potential importance of internal climate variability in both TOA and ocean heat rearrangement. The model simulations suggest that both factors can account for O (0.1 W m−2) on decadal timescales and may play an important role in the recently observed trends in GST and 0–700 m (and 0–1800 m) ocean heat uptake. (paper)

  3. Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.

    2008-01-01

    There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5

  4. The ``Nordic`` HBV model. Description and documentation of the model version developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saelthun, N.R.

    1996-12-31

    The model described in this report is a version of the HBV model developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production. This was a Nordic project aimed at evaluating the impacts of the Scandinavian countries including Greenland with emphasis on hydropower production. The model incorporates many of the features found in individual versions of the HBV model in use in the Nordic countries, and some new ones. It has catchment subdivision in altitude intervals, a simple vegetation parametrization including interception, temperature based evapotranspiration calculation, lake evaporation, lake routing, glacier mass balance simulation, special functions for climate change simulations etc. The user interface is very basic, and the model is primarily intended for research and educational purposes. Commercial versions of the model should be used for operational implementations. 5 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  5. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  6. Achieving stringent climate targets. An analysis of the role of transport and variable renewable energies using energy-economy-climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietzcker, Robert Carl

    2014-07-01

    technologies photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in REMIND confirms the dominant role of these variable renewable energies for the decarbonization of the power sector. Recent cost reductions have brought PV to cost-competitiveness in regions with high midday electricity demand and high solar irradiance. The representation of system integration costs in REMIND is found to have significant impact on the competition between PV and CSP in the model: the low integration requirements of CSP equipped with thermal storage and hydrogen co-firing make CSP competitive at high shares of variable renewable energies, which leads to substantial deployment of both PV and CSP in low stabilization scenarios. A cross-model study of transport sector decarbonization confirms the earlier finding that the transport sector is not very reactive to intermediate carbon price levels: Until 2050, transport decarbonization lags 10-30 years behind the decarbonization of other sectors, and liquid fuels dominate the transport sector. In the long term, however, transportation does not seem to be an insurmountable barrier to stringent climate targets: As the price signals on CO{sub 2} increase further, transport emissions can be reduced substantially - if either hydrogen fuel cells or electromobility open a route to low-carbon energy carriers, or second generation biofuels (possibly in combination with CCS) allow the use of liquid-based transport modes with low emissions. The last study takes up the fundamental question of this thesis and analyses the trade-off between the stringency of a climate target and the resulting techno-economic requirements and costs. We find that transforming the global energy-economy system to keep a two-thirds likelihood of limiting global warming to below 2 C is achievable at moderate economic implications. This result is contingent on the near-term implementation of stringent global climate policies and full availability of several technologies that are still in

  7. Achieving stringent climate targets. An analysis of the role of transport and variable renewable energies using energy-economy-climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    technologies photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in REMIND confirms the dominant role of these variable renewable energies for the decarbonization of the power sector. Recent cost reductions have brought PV to cost-competitiveness in regions with high midday electricity demand and high solar irradiance. The representation of system integration costs in REMIND is found to have significant impact on the competition between PV and CSP in the model: the low integration requirements of CSP equipped with thermal storage and hydrogen co-firing make CSP competitive at high shares of variable renewable energies, which leads to substantial deployment of both PV and CSP in low stabilization scenarios. A cross-model study of transport sector decarbonization confirms the earlier finding that the transport sector is not very reactive to intermediate carbon price levels: Until 2050, transport decarbonization lags 10-30 years behind the decarbonization of other sectors, and liquid fuels dominate the transport sector. In the long term, however, transportation does not seem to be an insurmountable barrier to stringent climate targets: As the price signals on CO2 increase further, transport emissions can be reduced substantially - if either hydrogen fuel cells or electromobility open a route to low-carbon energy carriers, or second generation biofuels (possibly in combination with CCS) allow the use of liquid-based transport modes with low emissions. The last study takes up the fundamental question of this thesis and analyses the trade-off between the stringency of a climate target and the resulting techno-economic requirements and costs. We find that transforming the global energy-economy system to keep a two-thirds likelihood of limiting global warming to below 2 C is achievable at moderate economic implications. This result is contingent on the near-term implementation of stringent global climate policies and full availability of several technologies that are still in the

  8. A parametric study of the thermal performance of green roofs in different climates through energy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Sananda

    In recent years, there has been great interest in the potential of green roofs as an alternative roofing option to reduce the energy consumed by individual buildings as well as mitigate large scale urban environmental problems such as the heat island effect. There is a widespread recognition and a growing literature of measured data that suggest green roofs can reduce building energy consumption. This thesis investigates the potential of green roofs in reducing the building energy loads and focuses on how the different parameters of a green roof assembly affect the thermal performance of a building. A green roof assembly is modeled in Design Builder- a 3D graphical design modeling and energy use simulation program (interface) that uses the EnergyPlus simulation engine, and the simulated data set thus obtained is compared to field experiment data to validate the roof assembly model on the basis of how accurately it simulates the behavior of a green roof. Then the software is used to evaluate the thermal performance of several green roof assemblies under three different climate types, looking at the whole building energy consumption. For the purpose of this parametric simulation study, a prototypical single story small office building is considered and one parameter of the green roof is altered for each simulation run in order to understand its effect on building's energy loads. These parameters include different insulation thicknesses, leaf area indices (LAI) and growing medium or soil depth, each of which are tested under the three different climate types. The energy use intensities (EUIs), the peak and annual heating and cooling loads resulting from the use of these green roof assemblies are compared with each other and to a cool roof base case to determine the energy load reductions, if any. The heat flux through the roof is also evaluated and compared. The simulation results are then organized and finally presented as a decision support tool that would

  9. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  10. Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Patrícia Alexandra Fortes da

    2014-01-01

    Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente Energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, generated by energy-economy-environment (E3) models, have been used to explore alternative futures and support energy and climate mitigation policy decisions. The uncertainty carried in these scenarios comes from inherent uncertainty of future conditions, reflected in the models input assumptions, and from the models intrinsic features (e.g. technology bottom-up vs. economic top-...

  11. Evaluation of the energy-climate package with the help of Gemini-E3 Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents an evaluation of the energy-climate package carried out at the request of the Ministry of Sustainable Development (MEEDDAT) by simulating several scenarios on the general calculable equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. The analysis was carried out during the European negotiations in very close collaboration with the services of the Ministry and has thus constituted a useful tool for deciding and defining the position of France, which, besides, chaired the Union in the course of the transition period of the second half of 2008 and was in charge of finding and gaining acceptance of a compromise between all the member countries, while taking into account the aspirations of the professionals most closely involved. As one might guess, the study shows that the easing of constraints through mechanisms of flexibility yields reductions in the cost of European policy on climate change, particularly for the achievement of the main objective, viz. the 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. This cost is reasonable, although its distribution between countries is neither homogeneous, nor in conformity with concerns over equity. Many indirect effects of the policy on climate change, in particular the gains or losses caused by the modification of the terms of trade, may significantly upset the hierarchy of direct costs. This article also looks into the carbon leakage issue and suggests, in particular, favouring the net leakage concept, this being the discrepancy between the additional emissions in non-annex B countries and those which would have been incurred if production in response to demand from annex B countries relatively insensitive to the policy o climatic change, had not been relocated. Another feature of this study is an evaluation, after the event, of the extent to which the use of a modelling tool has effectively allowed identification of the issues raised in the course of the European negotiation, and to provide relevant answers. (authors)

  12. Multiple regression models for energy use in air-conditioned office buildings in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An attempt was made to develop multiple regression models for office buildings in the five major climates in China - severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, mild, and hot summer and warm winter. A total of 12 key building design variables were identified through parametric and sensitivity analysis, and considered as inputs in the regression models. The coefficient of determination R2 varies from 0.89 in Harbin to 0.97 in Kunming, indicating that 89-97% of the variations in annual building energy use can be explained by the changes in the 12 parameters. A pseudo-random number generator based on three simple multiplicative congruential generators was employed to generate random designs for evaluation of the regression models. The difference between regression-predicted and DOE-simulated annual building energy use are largely within 10%. It is envisaged that the regression models developed can be used to estimate the likely energy savings/penalty during the initial design stage when different building schemes and design concepts are being considered.

  13. Diffusive Heat Transport in Budyko's Energy Balance Climate Model with a Dynamic Ice Line

    CERN Document Server

    Walsh, James

    2016-01-01

    M. Budyko and W. Sellers independently introduced seminal energy balance climate models in 1969, each with a goal of investigating the role played by positive ice albedo feedback in climate dynamics. In this paper we replace the relaxation to the mean horizontal heat transport mechanism used in the models of Budyko and Sellers with diffusive heat transport. We couple the resulting surface temperature equation with an equation for movement of the edge of the ice sheet (called the ice line), recently introduced by E. Widiasih. We apply the spectral method to the temperature-ice line system and consider finite approximations. We prove there exists a stable equilibrium solution with a small ice cap, and an unstable equilibrium solution with a large ice cap, for a range of parameter values. If the diffusive transport is too efficient, however, the small ice cap disappears and an ice free Earth becomes a limiting state. In addition, we analyze a variant of the coupled diffusion equations appropriate as a model for ...

  14. Modeling the water-energy nexus under changing energy market and climate conditions: a case study in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denaro, Simona; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Fumagalli, Elena; Giuliani, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) have been already observed over the last few years and have produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies. This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system located in the Lake Como catchment. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e

  15. Energy & Climate: Getting Quantitative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfson, Richard

    2011-11-01

    A noted environmentalist claims that buying an SUV instead of a regular car is energetically equivalent to leaving your refrigerator door open for seven years. A fossil-fuel apologist argues that solar energy is a pie-in-the-sky dream promulgated by na"ive environmentalists, because there's nowhere near enough solar energy to meet humankind's energy demand. A group advocating shutdown of the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant claims that 70% of its electrical energy is lost in transmission lines. Around the world, thousands agitate for climate action, under the numerical banner ``350.'' Neither the environmentalist, the fossil-fuel apologist, the antinuclear activists, nor most of those marching under the ``350'' banner can back up their assertions with quantitative arguments. Yet questions about energy and its environmental impacts almost always require quantitative answers. Physics can help! This poster gives some cogent examples, based on the newly published 2^nd edition of the author's textbook Energy, Environment, and Climate.

  16. The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: → A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. → The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. → Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. → Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. → Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

  17. Climate - Greenhouse effect - Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book explains what is understood by climate systems and the concept of greenhouse effect. It also gives a survey of the world's energy consumption, energy reserves and renewable energy sources. Today, 75 - 80 per cent of the world's energy consumption involves fossil fuel. These are the sources that cause the CO2 emissions. What are the possibilities of reducing the emissions? The world's population is increasing, and to provide food and a worthy life for everybody we have to use more energy. Where do we get this energy from without causing great climate changes and environmental changes? Should gas power plants be built in Norway? Should Swedish nuclear power plants be shut down, or is it advisable to concentrate on nuclear power, worldwide, this century, to reduce the CO2 emissions until the renewable energy sources have been developed and can take over once the petroleum sources have been depleted? The book also discusses the global magnetic field, which protects against particle radiation from space and which gives rise to the aurora borealis. The book is aimed at students taking environmental courses in universities and colleges, but is also of interest for anybody concerned about climate questions, energy sources and living standard

  18. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  19. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  20. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect

  1. Reconsiderations Energy and Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Working Group on Rethinking Energy and Climate discussed a number of starting points for shifting the burden of the government budget to citizens and companies without impacting the targets of the Balkenende IV cabinet. This is done by replacing decreases subsidies and tax expenditure with pricing through tax instruments or regulation, or a combination of them. This strategy offers the opportunity to make the polluter pay more than under the current regulations. As it turns out, there are some complications for this strategy. The time is ripe for a systematic analysis of the interaction between the targets of the European climate and energy package in relation to the emission trading system, especially in view of the long term objective of a low carbon energy system.

  2. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and...... the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model...

  3. Hybrid modeling to support energy-climate policy: Effects of feed-in tariffs to promote renewable energy in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feed-in tariffs have been the main policy instrument applied in Portugal for the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources under the EU Directives on energy and climate regulation. In this paper, we provide an empirical impact assessment of the economic and environmental effects of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. Impact assessment of policy instruments plays a crucial role on decision-making process. For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium modeling approach, which represents a reliable tool to analyze the complex interactions between economic, energy, and environmental issues related to energy policies. Numerical simulations confirm the empirical evidence that the FITs policy implemented by Portugal was both an effective and a cost-efficient way to increase the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources and thus to achieve the national RES-E target of 45% in 2010. Results show relatively modest macroeconomic impacts indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. From an environmental perspective, the deployment of renewable energy source results in significant carbon emissions reductions. - Highlights: ► We provide an impact assessment of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. ► For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium model. ► Portugal's FITs policy proved to be a cost-efficient way to increase generation of renewable electricity. ► Results show relatively modest macroeconomic effects indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. ► The deployment of renewable energy sources results in significant carbon emission reductions

  4. Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.; Kim, Son H.; Dirks, James A.; Jensen, Erik A.; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.; Schmidt, Laurel C.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    As long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate impact on building energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into climate policy and regional energy system planning. In this study, we presented a detailed building energy model with a U.S. state-level representation, nested in the GCAM integrated assessment framework. We projected state-level building energy demand and its spatial pattern over the century, considering the impact of climate change based on the estimates of heating and cooling degree days derived from downscaled USGS CASCaDE temperature data. The result indicates that climate change has a large impact on heating and cooling building energy and fuel use at the state level, exhibiting large spatial heterogeneity across states (ranges from -10% to +10%). The sensitivity analysis reveals that the building energy demand is subject to multiple key factors, such as the magnitude of climate change, the choice of climate models, and the growth of population and GDP, and that their relative contributions vary greatly across the space. The scale impact in building energy use modeling highlights the importance of constructing a building energy model with the spatially-explicit representation of socioeconomics, energy system development, and climate change. These findings will help the climate-based policy decision and energy system, especially utility planning related to building sector at the U.S. state and regional level facing the potential climate change.

  5. Use of an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to simulate and diagnose A/OGCM results

    OpenAIRE

    S. C. B. Raper; Gregory, J. M.; Osborn, T. J.

    2001-01-01

    We demonstrate that a hemispherically averaged upwelling-diffusion energy-balance climate model (UD/EBM) can emulate the surface air temperature change and sea-level rise due to thermal expansion, predicted by the HadCM2 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, for various scenarios of anthropogenic radiative forcing over 1860-2100. A climate sensitivity of 2.6 oC is assumed, and a representation of the effect of sea-ice retreat on surface air temperature is required. In an extende...

  6. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.;

    a temperature index method. The delta change approach was used to generate synthetic precipitation and temperature data based on observations (1961-1990) and three regional climate models (2036-2065, CLM, RACMO and REMO). Because modelling generation on 1000+ hydropower plants is intractable, the capacities......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...... the effects of climate change on the current Iberian power system. The Iberian power system is a competitive power market where power price is determined by power supply and demand, and which can be simulated by a market equilibrium model considering the power demand function and the installed capacities...

  7. Energy Planning in the Austrian climate and energy model-region Urfahr-West

    OpenAIRE

    Kristensen, Jacob Byskov; Gebetsberger, Tobias

    2013-01-01

    The global energy demand is rising due to reasons like growth of population and economy, which pose a big challenge to energy planning. Not only is there a need to satisfy the demand, but also to cope with the resulting impact on the environmental. A way forward would be the change from fossil to renewable energy. Such a change needs to be pushed on first and foremost by rich developed countries. With this hypothesis, we turn our focus on Austria and discover a rather fragmented ener...

  8. Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visschers, Vivianne H.M., E-mail: vvisschers@ethz.ch [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Consumer Behavior, Universitaetsstrasse 22 CHN J 75.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Consumer Behavior, Universitaetsstrasse 22 CHN J 75.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-06-15

    Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed. - Highlights: > Explanatory model of determinants of nuclear power acceptance was studied in the representative survey. > Perceived benefits for a secure energy supply had the largest influence on acceptance. > Perceived benefits for the climate seemed less influential on acceptance. > Affect had a central role in the explanatory model. > Implications for communication about nuclear power plants are discussed.

  9. Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed. - Highlights: → Explanatory model of determinants of nuclear power acceptance was studied in the representative survey. → Perceived benefits for a secure energy supply had the largest influence on acceptance. → Perceived benefits for the climate seemed less influential on acceptance. → Affect had a central role in the explanatory model. → Implications for communication about nuclear power plants are discussed.

  10. Producing an integrated climate-land-energy-water (CLEW) model for glaciated regions in the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delman, E. M.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Growing concern over the impact of climate change on global freshwater resources has spurred a demand for practical, basin-specific adaptation tools. The potential for water stress is particularly inflated in the glaciated watersheds of the developing world; widespread and rapid glacial retreat has forced regional resource managers to reconcile the reality of a diminishing supply with an overall increase in demand, while accounting for the underlying geopolitical and cultural context. An integrated approach, such as the development of a Climate-Land-Energy-Water (CLEW) model that examines relationships among climate, land-use, and the energy and water sectors, can be used to assess the impact of different climate change scenarios on basin sustainability and vulnerability. This study will first constrain the hydrologic budget in the Río Santa Watershed of Peru using satellite imagery, historical and contemporary stream discharge data, hydrologic modeling, climatic data analysis, and isotopic and chemical tracers. Ultimately, glacier retreat will be examined at the watershed scale and be used as an input in the CLEW model framework to assess hydrologic budget scenarios and the subsequent impact on regional economic and environmental sustainability.

  11. Monitoring changes in precipitation and radiative energy using satellite data and climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Allan, R. P.; John, V. O.

    2009-01-01

    Current changes in the tropical hydrological cycle, including water vapour and precipitation, are presented over the period 1979-2008 based on a diverse suite of observational datasets and atmosphere-only climate models. Models capture the observed variability in tropical moisture while reanalyses cannot. Observed variability in precipitation is highly dependent upon the satellite instruments employed and only cursory agreement with model simulations, primarily relating to the ...

  12. Methods for developing time-series climate surfaces to drive topographically distributed energy- and water-balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susong, D.; Marks, D.; Garen, D.

    1999-01-01

    Topographically distributed energy- and water-balance models can accurately simulate both the development and melting of a seasonal snowcover in the mountain basins. To do this they require time-series climate surfaces of air temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and thermal radiation. If data are available, these parameters can be adequately estimated at time steps of one to three hours. Unfortunately, climate monitoring in mountain basins is very limited, and the full range of elevations and exposures that affect climate conditions, snow deposition, and melt is seldom sampled. Detailed time-series climate surfaces have been successfully developed using limited data and relatively simple methods. We present a synopsis of the tools and methods used to combine limited data with simple corrections for the topographic controls to generate high temporal resolution time-series images of these climate parameters. Methods used include simulations, elevational gradients, and detrended kriging. The generated climate surfaces are evaluated at points and spatially to determine if they are reasonable approximations of actual conditions. Recommendations are made for the addition of critical parameters and measurement sites into routine monitoring systems in mountain basins.Topographically distributed energy- and water-balance models can accurately simulate both the development and melting of a seasonal snowcover in the mountain basins. To do this they require time-series climate surfaces of air temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and thermal radiation. If data are available, these parameters can be adequately estimated at time steps of one to three hours. Unfortunately, climate monitoring in mountain basins is very limited, and the full range of elevations and exposures that affect climate conditions, snow deposition, and melt is seldom sampled. Detailed time-series climate surfaces have been successfully developed using limited

  13. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Gong and Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA) regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM). Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF) was observed at the top of the atmosphere. The model results indicate that both the high and low clouds are persistent throughout the summe...

  14. Modelling Interglacial Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

    Past warm climate states could potentially provide information on future global warming. The past warming was driven by changed insolation rather than an increased greenhouse effect, and thus the warm climate states are expected to be different. Nonetheless, the response of the climate system...... involves some of the same mechanisms in the two climate states. This thesis aims to investigate these mechanisms through climate model experiments. This two-part study has a special focus on the Arctic region, and the main paleoclimate experiments are supplemented by idealized experiments detailing the...... impact of a changing sea ice cover. The first part focusses on the last interglacial climate (125,000 years before present) which was characterized by substantial warming at high northern latitudes due to an increased insolation during summer. The simulations reveal that the oceanic changes dominate the...

  15. Evaluation of energy efficiency in street lighting: model proposition considering climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaury Caruzzo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the impacts of climate variability on efficient electricity consumption in street lighting in Brazil. The Climate Demand Method (CDM was applied, and the energy savings achieved by Brazil’s National Efficient Street Lighting Program (ReLuz in 2005 were calculated, considering the monthly climatology of sunshine duration, disaggregated by county in Brazil. The total energy savings in street lighting in 2005 were estimated at 63 GWh/year or 1.39% higher than the value determined by ReLuz/Eletrobrás and there was a 15 MW reduction in demand in Brazil, considering the nearly 393,000 points in ReLuz served in 2005. The results indicate that, besides the difference in latitude, climate variability in different county increases the daily usage of street lighting up to 19%. Furthermore, Brazil’s large size means that seasonality patterns in energy savings are not homogeneous, and there is a correlation between the monthly variability in sunshine duration and the latitude of mesoregions. The CDM was also shown to be suitable for ranking mesoregions with the highest levels of energy saving lighting.

  16. The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, C. H.; Lau, K. M.; Tao, W. K.; Simpson, J.

    1994-01-01

    A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated

  17. An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Robinson

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.

  18. Energy Switching Threshold for Climatic Benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is one of the great challenges facing humanity currently and in the future. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems (1). A transition from the global system of high Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission electricity generation to low GHG emission energy technologies is required to mitigate climate change (2). Natural gas is increasingly seen as a choice for transitions to renewable sources. However, recent researches in energy and climate puzzled about the climate implications of relying more energy on natural gas. On one hand, a shift to natural gas is promoted as climate mitigation because it has lower carbon per unit energy than coal (3). On the other hand, the effect of switching to natural gas on nuclear-power and other renewable energies development may offset benefits from fuel-switching (4). Cheap natural gas is causing both coal plants and nuclear plants to close in the US. The objective of this study is to measure and evaluate the threshold of energy switching for climatic benefits. We hypothesized that the threshold ratio of energy switching for climatic benefits is related to GHGs emission factors of energy technologies, but the relation is not linear. A model was developed to study the fuel switching threshold for greenhouse gas emission reduction, and transition from coal and nuclear electricity generation to natural gas electricity generation was analyzed as a case study. The results showed that: (i) the threshold ratio of multi-energy switching for climatic benefits changes with GHGs emission factors of energy technologies. (ii)The mathematical relation between the threshold ratio of energy switching and GHGs emission factors of energies is a curved surface function. (iii) The analysis of energy switching threshold for climatic benefits can be used for energy and climate policy decision support.

  19. The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000-2100). We present energy and emission results for climate scenarios for two levels of CO2 concentration (450 and 550 ppmv by 2100). We analyze the penetration level of nuclear energy under various sets of assumptions on technology parameters and exogenous constraints on nuclear development to reflect social perceptions. Nuclear energy technologies satisfy a large portion of electricity production in many regions. Most regions experience an energy transition based on advanced oil and gas technologies and hydropower. Other renewable technologies might play a more important role but need further cost reductions or new regulations to penetrate the market in substantial proportions. Carbon sequestration and endogenous demand reductions for energy services are also significantly contributing to reach environmental target

  20. Modelling the energy and exergy utilisation of the Mexican non-domestic sector: A study by climatic regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents the development of a bottom-up stock model to perform a holistic energy study of the Mexican non-domestic sector. The current energy and exergy flows are shown based on a categorisation by climatic regions with the aim of understanding the impact of local characteristics on regional efficiencies. Due to the limited data currently available, the study is supported by the development of a detailed archetype-based stock model using EnergyPlus as a first law analysis tool combined with an existing exergy analysis method. Twenty-one reference models were created to estimate the electric and gas use in the sector. The results indicate that sectoral energy and exergy annual input are 95.37 PJ and 94.28 PJ, respectively. Regional exergy efficiencies were found to be 17.8%, 16.6% and 23.2% for the hot-dry, hot-humid and temperate climates, respectively. The study concludes that significant potential for improvements still exists, especially in the cases of space conditioning, lighting, refrigeration, and cooking where most exergy destructions occur. Additionally, this work highlights that the method described may be further used to study the impact of large-scale refurbishments and promote national regulations and standards for sustainable buildings that takes into consideration energy and exergy indicators. - Highlights: • A bottom-up physics model was developed to analyse the Mexican commercial stock. • A detailed energy analysis by climate, buildings and end-uses is presented. • The Mexican non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 19.7%. • The lowest regional exergy efficiency is found at the hot-humid region with 16.6%. • By end use, the highest exergy destructions are caused by HVAC and lighting

  1. Strategies for Effective Implementation of Science Models into 6-9 Grade Classrooms on Climate, Weather, and Energy Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarker, M. B.; Stanier, C. O.; Forbes, C.; Park, S.

    2011-12-01

    strategies middle school science teachers use to implement science models into their classrooms. These teachers in this study took part in a week-long professional development designed to orient them towards appropriate use of science models for a unit on weather, climate, and energy concepts. The goal of this project is to describe the professional development and describe how teachers intend to incorporate science models into each of their individual classrooms.

  2. Nuclear Energy and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Méritet, Sophie; Zaleski, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The paper will discuss the possibilities of the development of nuclear energy in the world in the midterm and long term. It will correlate the prospects with the emissions of CO2 and the effects on climate change. In particular it will discuss the problems nuclear energy face to make a large contribution of climate change issue.

  3. Green Growth - an Illusion? Energy and Climate Risk: Rethinking our Developmental Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The years go by and international conferences come and go, with their quota of cries of alarm and calls to action to counter climate change. But in reality few large-scale programmes have been launched anywhere in the world involving concrete action to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. As one who has campaigned for many years for policies of energy consumption control, Benjamin Dessus shows here that the energy challenge is as great as it has ever been in a world of expanding populations in which most peoples aspire to reach the developmental level of the northern countries, despite the fact that our climate probably cannot support such a state of affairs. He argues here against a certain number of common suppositions, such as the idea of focussing exclusively on CO2 in the fight against global warming, the need for a continuous economic growth on the order of 2% per annum or excessive faith in market mechanisms to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. He also stresses the ambiguities of so-called 'green' growth and compares different energy conservation scenarios. In this way, he shows that, against a relatively dominant line of reasoning based largely on (at times near-utopian) technological solutions and the continuation of sustained economic growth, there are more effective paths based on individual/collective energy sobriety and a serious slowdown of economic growth in the most developed countries, if not indeed a total halt to that growth (though these are more ambitious in that they require a revolution in the behaviour of the most affluent peoples). He concludes by proposing some courses of action for implementing such a programme in a country like France, showing the extent to which modern modes of life are going to have to change and how urgent it now is to debate these matters, if such change is to be achieved without - excessive - pain. (author)

  4. Projections of global mean sea level rise calculated with a 2D energy-balance climate model and dynamic ice sheet models

    OpenAIRE

    De Wolde, J. R.; Huybrechts, P.; J. Oerlemans; van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2011-01-01

    Projections of changes in surface air temperature and global mean sea level over the next century are presented for all IS92 radiative forcing scenarios. A zonal mean energy-balance climate model is used to estimate temperature changes and thermal expansion, precipitation-dependent sensitivity values are used to estimate the sea-level contribution of glaciers and small ice caps and dynamic ice-sheet models coupled to surface mass balance models are employed with regard to the Greenland and An...

  5. An energy-balance model with multiply-periodic and quasi-chaotic free oscillations. [for climate forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, K.; Ghil, M.

    1979-01-01

    A slightly modified version of the one-dimensional time-dependent energy-balance climate model of Ghil and Bhattacharya (1978) is presented. The albedo-temperature parameterization has been reformulated and the smoothing of the temperature distribution in the tropics has been eliminated. The model albedo depends on time-lagged temperature in order to account for finite growth and decay time of continental ice sheets. Two distinct regimes of oscillatory behavior which depend on the value of the albedo-temperature time lag are considered.

  6. How reliable are climate models?

    OpenAIRE

    Räisänen, Jouni

    2007-01-01

    How much can we trust model-based projections of future anthropogenic climate change? This review attempts to give an overview of this important but difficult topic by using three main lines of evidence: the skill of models in simulating present-day climate, intermodel agreement on future climate changes, and the ability of models to simulate climate changes that have already occurred. A comparison of simulated and observed present-day climates shows good agreement for many basic variables, p...

  7. Development of the multi-scale model for urban climate analysis and evaluation of urban greening effects on energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamano, H.; Nakayama, T.; Fujita, T.; Hori, H.; Tagami, H.

    2009-12-01

    It is necessary to reduce Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions drastically to stabilize climate change, and Japan is also required to assess its long-term global warming policy. In achieving the low carbon society and sustainable cities, the numerical evaluation of environmental impacts of the application of different technologies and policies was preliminarily examined by utilizing integrative urban environmental model. This research aims to develop the multi-scale model for urban climate analysis and to evaluate the urban greening effects on energy consumption from household and business sectors. It developed the multi-scale model combined the process-based NIES integrated catchment-based eco-hydrology (NICE) model with the meso-scale meteorological model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System : RAMS) and urban canopy model to estimate the urban climate mitigation effects by introduction of urban heat environmental mitigation technology and scenario. The numerical simulation conducted with the multi-scale level horizontally consisting regional scale (260×260km with 2km grid) and urban area scale (36×26km with 0.2km grid) against the objective area, Kawasaki city of Japan. The urban canopy model predicts the three dimensional atmospheric conditions including anthropogenic heat effect from household, business and factory sectors. Furthermore the tile method applied into the urban canopy model for the improvement of numerical accuracy and detailed land use information in each grid. The validation of this model was conducted by comparison with the observed air temperature of 29 points in entire Kawasaki area from 1st to 31th of August, 2006. From the quantitative validation of model performance, the coefficient of correlation was 0.72 and the root mean square error was 2.99C. The introduction of patch method into urban canopy model made it possible to calculate the each land use effect, and the accuracy of predicted results was improved against the land use area

  8. Energy Revolution Against Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy revolution is taking place in the world with objective to mitigate consequences of evident climate change, caused mostly by emissions of the greenhouse gases from combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas). The principal elements of the energy revolution are decrease in energy consumption by increase in energy efficiency and substitution of fossil fuels by renewable energies, supported by 'clean' fossil fuels and nuclear energy. (author)

  9. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  10. The mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: sensitivity to climate change as revealed by energy-balance modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Oerlemans, J.

    1991-01-01

    The sensitivity of the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change is studied with an energy-balance model of the ice/snow surface, applied at 200 m elevation intervals for four characteristic regions of the ice sheet. Solar radiation, longwave radiation, turbulent heat fluxes and refreezing of melt water in the snow pack are treated separately. The daily cycle is fully resolved. For the climatology chosen as input (mainly from work by A. Ohmura), the, mean specific balance prod...

  11. Nuclear energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO2 emissions. (Author)

  12. Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways. - Highlights: ► We developed a techno-economic energy model of Ireland to the year 2050. ► Reductions between 80% and 95% of GHG emissions can be technically achieved. ► A 50% emissions cut in agriculture requires a 95% reductions from the energy system. ► Extending current policies implies greater electrification and efficiency measures. ► The additional cost to achieve mitigation remain less than 2% of GDP levels in 2050.

  13. Energies-climate review (Panorama energies-climate) - issue 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This issue first analyses what is at stake with energy transition: struggle against climate change, management of energy demand and promotion of energy efficiency, struggle against energy poverty, development of technologies for tomorrow's energy system. It discusses France's position within its European and international environment: European energy-climate objectives, world context of oil and gas markets, European electricity markets, imports and exports, energy bill. It presents and analyses the situation of the oil and gas sector in France: hydrocarbon exploration and production in France, refining activities, substitution fuels, oil infrastructures, oil product retailing, and gas infrastructures. It then presents the French electric system (electricity production, electricity transport and distribution grids and networks, electric system safety) and the industrial sectors involved in de-carbonated energy production: biomass, wind energy, sea energy, geothermal energy, hydroelectricity, nuclear energy, photovoltaic and thermodynamic solar energy. It addresses the industrial sectors involved in a better use of energy: dynamic control of smart energy systems (smart grids, hydrogen, energy storage), CO2 capture and storage, de-carbonated vehicle and its ecosystem. The last part addresses oil product prices, gas prices, electricity prices, the energy tax system, and the arrangements and costs of the support to renewable energy production

  14. Architecture, energy and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauring, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Architecture has always had to relate to climatic conditions while providing shelter from the sun, the rain, the winds or the cold. This is a main purpose of buildings: To establish an indoor climate different from the outdoor. In the Nordic countries fuels for heating buildings has been a vital...... cases been to search for traditional and pre-industrialized ways of building and settlement. The idea of this theme number is not to flee from modern life and approaches, but instead to face modern conditions relevant in achieving sustainable urban development and sustainable architecture, the only...... truly modern architecture that exists....

  15. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  16. Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector-A review of energy and climate models forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100-300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600-700 million metric tons of CO2 emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO2 emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades

  17. Changes in storm tracks and energy transports in a warmer climate simulated by the GFDL CM2.1 model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Yutian [Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY (United States); Ting, Mingfang; Seager, Richard; Cane, Mark A. [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Huang, Huei-Ping [Arizona State University, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Tempe, AZ (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Storm tracks play a major role in regulating the precipitation and hydrological cycle in midlatitudes. The changes in the location and amplitude of the storm tracks in response to global warming will have significant impacts on the poleward transport of heat, momentum and moisture and on the hydrological cycle. Recent studies have indicated a poleward shift of the storm tracks and the midlatitude precipitation zone in the warming world that will lead to subtropical drying and higher latitude moistening. This study agrees with this key feature for not only the annual mean but also different seasons and for the zonal mean as well as horizontal structures based on the analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2.1 model simulations. Further analyses show that the meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes associated with the storm tracks shift poleward and intensify in both boreal summer and winter in the late twenty-first century (years 2081-2100) relative to the latter half of the twentieth century (years 1961-2000). The maximum dry Eady growth rate is examined to determine the effect of global warming on the time mean state and associated available potential energy for transient growth. The trend in maximum Eady growth rate is generally consistent with the poleward shift and intensification of the storm tracks in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres in both seasons. However, in the lower troposphere in northern winter, increased meridional eddy transfer within the storm tracks is more associated with increased eddy velocity, stronger correlation between eddy velocity and eddy moist static energy, and longer eddy length scale. The changing characteristics of baroclinic instability are, therefore, needed to explain the storm track response as climate warms. Diagnosis of the latitude-by-latitude energy budget for the current and future climate demonstrates how the coupling between radiative and surface heat fluxes and eddy heat and moisture

  18. Philosophy of climate science part II: modelling climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the second of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this second part about modelling climate change, the topics of climate modelling, confirmation of climate models, the limits of climate projections, uncertainty and finally model ensembles will be discussed.

  19. Utilization of solar energy in cold climate

    OpenAIRE

    Tazeeva, Elena

    2010-01-01

    Solar radiation is a source of life on the Earth. The sun heats the atmosphere and the surface of our planet. Because of the sun winds are blowing, circulation of water is happened, seas and oceans are heated, and plants are growing. Nowadays people know how to transfer solar radiation straightly into energy. The subject of the project is to research the possibilities of utilization of solar energy in cold climate. At this project the model of calculation solar energy is shown. Following ...

  20. Climate change and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  1. Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030: Synergies or trade-offs between economy, energy and climate security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Min Chai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025–2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually −0.2% in average and cumulatively −3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015–2030.

  2. Quantifying the "Energy-Return-on-Investment" of desert greening in the Sahara/Sahel using a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowring, S. P. K.; Miller, L. M.; Ganzeveld, L.; Kleidon, A.

    2013-08-01

    "Greening" the world's deserts has been proposed as a way to produce additional food, sequester carbon, and alter the climate of desert regions. Here, we quantify the potential benefits in terms of energetic quantities and compare these to the energetic costs. We then compare these using the metric of Energy-Return-On-Investment (EROI). We apply EROI to a series of global climate model simulations where the arid Sahara/Sahel region is irrigated with various rates of desalinated water to produce biomass. The energy content of this biomass is greater than the energy input rate for a minimum irrigation rate of about 200 mm yr-1 in the winter and 500 mm yr-1 in the summer, thereby yielding an EROI ratio > 1 : 1, expressing energetic sustainability. Quantified annually, the EROI was > 1 : 1 for irrigation rates more than 500 mm yr-1, progressively increasing to a maximum of 1.8 : 1 with 900 mm yr-1, and then decreasing with further increases in the irrigation rate. Including the precipitation feedback arising from changes in moisture-recycling within the study region approximately doubles these EROI ratios. This overall result varies spatially and temporally, so while the entire Sahara/Sahel region is irrigated equally, the western coastal region from June to August had the highest EROI. Other factors would complicate such a large-scale modification of the Earth System, but this sensitivity study concludes that with a required energy input, desert greening may be energetically sustainable. Furthermore, we suggest that this type of EROI-analysis could be applied as a metric to assess a diverse range of human alterations to, and interventions within, the Earth System.

  3. Climate predictions: the chaos and complexity in climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Mihailović, Dragutin T; Arsenić, Ilija

    2013-01-01

    Some issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Godel's Theorem and Rosen's definition of complexity and predictability is discussed. It is pointed out to occurrence of chaos in computing the environmental interface temperature from the energy balance equation given in a difference form. A coupled system of equations, often used in climate models is analyzed. It is shown that the Lyapunov exponent mostly has positive values allowing presence of chaos in this systems. The horizontal energy exchange between environmental interfaces, which is described by the dynamics of driven coupled oscillators, is analyzed. Their behavior and synchronization, when a perturbation is introduced in the system, as a function of the coupling parameters, the logistic parameter and the parameter of exchange, was studied calculating the Lyapunov expone...

  4. Wind-Climate Estimation Based on Mesoscale and Microscale Modeling: Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling for Wind Energy Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Frank, Helmut; Hahmann, Andrea N.;

    2014-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that a statistical dynamical method can be used to accurately estimate the wind climate at a wind farm site. In particular, postprocessing of mesoscale model output allows an efficient calculation of the local wind climate required for wind resource estimation at a wind tu...

  5. Modeling for climate change in the aspect of nuclear energy priority: Nuclear power energy-based convergence social-humanity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following the industry expansion, the energy consumptions have increased steeply, which have produced the global warming in our lives by carbon production energies. This climate change has provoked significant natural disasters which have damaged to social as well economic matters. Considering the non-carbon production which is the major factor of global warming, nuclear energy is a newly spotlighted source as the green energy source. The climate change factor is affected by the carbon productions made by humans. Then, the nuclear energy increasing rate with the climate change factor affects to the temperature change which is expressed by annual anomaly. Fig. 6 is the protocol for climate change investigation incorporated with the nuclear industry where the climate factor like the temperature is an important index to find out the priority of nuclear energy. The increased environmental pollutions can give the expanding of nuclear energy due to the carbon gas of fossil fuels. This study showed the effectiveness of the nuclear energy by the simulations. The seasonal climate disaster like the very cold winter and very hot summer can increase the necessity of nuclear energy development which could appeal to the general public persons as well as the politicians. So, it is important for the nuclear energy manager to make people understand the importance of the nuclear energy comparing to the oil or coal fuels. The regeneration energy has been considered as the alternative source

  6. Modeling for climate change in the aspect of nuclear energy priority: Nuclear power energy-based convergence social-humanity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woo, Tae Ho [Systemix Global Co. Ltd., Seoul, (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Following the industry expansion, the energy consumptions have increased steeply, which have produced the global warming in our lives by carbon production energies. This climate change has provoked significant natural disasters which have damaged to social as well economic matters. Considering the non-carbon production which is the major factor of global warming, nuclear energy is a newly spotlighted source as the green energy source. The climate change factor is affected by the carbon productions made by humans. Then, the nuclear energy increasing rate with the climate change factor affects to the temperature change which is expressed by annual anomaly. Fig. 6 is the protocol for climate change investigation incorporated with the nuclear industry where the climate factor like the temperature is an important index to find out the priority of nuclear energy. The increased environmental pollutions can give the expanding of nuclear energy due to the carbon gas of fossil fuels. This study showed the effectiveness of the nuclear energy by the simulations. The seasonal climate disaster like the very cold winter and very hot summer can increase the necessity of nuclear energy development which could appeal to the general public persons as well as the politicians. So, it is important for the nuclear energy manager to make people understand the importance of the nuclear energy comparing to the oil or coal fuels. The regeneration energy has been considered as the alternative source.

  7. Energy and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Are described the policies for emission reduction taken at the international level with particular reference to the European Union. Are presented recent data on greenhouse gas emissions in the EU and the link between energy production and greenhouse gases, the environmental impact of major power systems related to economic data

  8. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargsyan, K.; Safta, C.; Berry, R.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H.

    2011-12-01

    requires a large number of training runs, as well as an output parameterization with respect to a fast-growing spectral basis set. To alleviate this issue, we adopt the Bayesian view of compressive sensing, well-known in the image recognition community. The technique efficiently finds a sparse representation of the model output with respect to a large number of input variables, effectively obtaining a reduced order surrogate model for the input-output relationship. The methodology is preceded by a sampling strategy that takes into account input parameter constraints by an initial mapping of the constrained domain to a hypercube via the Rosenblatt transformation, which preserves probabilities. Furthermore, a sparse quadrature sampling, specifically tailored for the reduced basis, is employed in the unconstrained domain to obtain accurate representations. The work is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's CSSEF (Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future) program. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  9. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong and Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere. The model results indicate that both the high and low clouds are persistent throughout the summer months in both years. Because of large cloud water, low clouds significantly reduce the solar radiation flux reaching the surface, which nevertheless still dominate the surface energy balance, accounting for more than 50% of the surface heating. The low clouds also contribute significantly the downward longwave radiation to the surface with values strongly dependent on the cloud base temperature. The presence of low clouds effectively decreases the temperature and moisture gradients near surface, resulting in a substantial decrease in the sensible and latent heat fluxes from surface, which partially compensate the decrease of the net radiative cooling of the surface. For example, in the two days, May 8 and July 11 of 1988, the total cloud cover of 80% is simulated, but the respective low cloud cover (water was 63% (114 gm-2 and 22% (21 gm-2. As a result, the downward solar radiation is smaller by 161 Wm-2 in May 8. On the other hand, the cloud temperature was _ lower, yielding 56 Wm-2 smaller downward longwave radiation. The near surface temperature and gradient is more than _ smaller (and moisture gradient, leading to 21 and 81 Wm-2 smaller sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. It is also demonstrated that the model is capable to reproduce the intraseasonal variation of shortwave CRF, and catches the relationship between total cloud cover and SW CRF. The model results show the dominance of high cloud on the regional mean longwave CRF and low cloud on the intra

  10. Stochastic Climate Theory and Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Franzke, Christian L E; Berner, Judith; Williams, Paul D; Lucarini, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochast...

  11. Renewable energy and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Quaschning, Volker

    2010-01-01

    This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

  12. Climate and Energy Responsive Housing in Continental Climates

    OpenAIRE

    Nasrollahi, Farshad

    2009-01-01

    zugleich in Printform erschienen im Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin: Nasrollahi, Farshad: Climate and Energy Responsive Housing in Continental Climates : the Suitability of Passive Houses for Iran’s Dry and Cold Climate. - Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin, 2009. - 279 S. : Ill. ISBN 978-3-7983-2144-1

  13. An analytical model for climatic predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day-1. We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

  14. Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change Impacts on Wind Energy Resources in the Contiguous United States by Using a Limited-Area Model with Scale-Selective Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a limited-area model (LAM in combination with the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA approach, wind energy resources in the contiguous United States (CONUS were downscaled from IPCC CCSM3 global model projections for both current and future climate conditions. An assessment of climate change impacts on wind energy resources in the CONUS region was then conducted. Based on the downscaling results, when projecting into future climate under IPCC’s A1B scenario, the average annual wind speed experiences an overall shift across the CONUS region. From the current climate to the 2040s, the average annual wind speed is expected to increase from 0.1 to 0.2 m s−1 over the Great Plains, Northern Great Lakes Region, and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rocky Mountains. When projecting into the 2090s from current climate, there is an overall increase in the Great Plains Region and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rockies with a mean wind speed increase between 0 and 0.1 m s−1, while, the Northern Great Lakes Region experiences an even greater increase from current climate to 2090s than over the first few decades with an increase of mean wind speed from 0.1 to 0.4 m s−1.

  15. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  16. Green Growth - an Illusion? Energy and Climate Risk: Rethinking our Developmental Models; La croissance verte, une illusion? Energie et risque climatique: repenser nos modeles de developpement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dessus, B. [Association Global Chance, 92 - Meudon (France)

    2011-04-15

    The years go by and international conferences come and go, with their quota of cries of alarm and calls to action to counter climate change. But in reality few large-scale programmes have been launched anywhere in the world involving concrete action to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. As one who has campaigned for many years for policies of energy consumption control, Benjamin Dessus shows here that the energy challenge is as great as it has ever been in a world of expanding populations in which most peoples aspire to reach the developmental level of the northern countries, despite the fact that our climate probably cannot support such a state of affairs. He argues here against a certain number of common suppositions, such as the idea of focussing exclusively on CO{sub 2} in the fight against global warming, the need for a continuous economic growth on the order of 2% per annum or excessive faith in market mechanisms to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. He also stresses the ambiguities of so-called 'green' growth and compares different energy conservation scenarios. In this way, he shows that, against a relatively dominant line of reasoning based largely on (at times near-utopian) technological solutions and the continuation of sustained economic growth, there are more effective paths based on individual/collective energy sobriety and a serious slowdown of economic growth in the most developed countries, if not indeed a total halt to that growth (though these are more ambitious in that they require a revolution in the behaviour of the most affluent peoples). He concludes by proposing some courses of action for implementing such a programme in a country like France, showing the extent to which modern modes of life are going to have to change and how urgent it now is to debate these matters, if such change is to be achieved without - excessive - pain. (author)

  17. Investigating the performance and energy saving potential of Chinese commercial building benchmark models for the hot humid and severe cold climate regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, Lesley Anne

    2011-12-01

    The demand for energy in China is growing at an alarming rate. Buildings have become a significant component of the energy-demand mix accounting for nearly one-quarter of the country's total primary energy consumption. This study compares the building code standards for office and hotel buildings in the hot humid and severe cold climate regions of China and the United States. Benchmark office and hotel building models have been developed for Guangzhou and Harbin, China that meets China's minimum national and regional building energy codes with the integration of common design and construction practices for each region. These models are compared to the ASHRAE standard based US reference building models for Houston, Texas and Duluth, Minnesota which have similar climate conditions. The research further uses a building energy optimization tool to optimize the Chinese benchmarks using existing US products to identify the primary areas for potential energy savings. In the case of the Harbin models, an economic analysis has also been performed to determine the economic feasibility of alternative building designs. The most significant energy-saving options are then presented as recommendations for potential improvements to current China building energy codes.

  18. Energy security and climate change: Friends with asymmetric benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2016-06-01

    Combatting climate change is often considered to bring about security of energy supply by reducing reliance on imports. By modelling the impact of pursuing energy security policies, a study now finds that the inverse situation is less advantageous for the global climate.

  19. An analysis of long-term climate change mitigation in power generation sector by using a world energy systems model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Development and diffusion of various technologies are important for reducing CO2 emission. In power generation sector, nuclear power generation, CO2 capture and storage, and renewable energies such as wind power and PV are hoped as effective technologies for reducing CO2 emission. However, social acceptance, cost, supply potential and etc. are problems to be solved for their diffusion. In this paper, climate change mitigations in power generation sector for four scenarios with considering uncertainty of the above three technologies were quantitatively analyzed by using DNE21+. Model analysis reveals that 1) If the three technologies are developed and diffused, CO2 shadow price for achieving 450 ppm CO2 is $100/tCO2 in the year 2050. 2) If technology development and diffusion are stagnant, the CO2 shadow price for achieving 450 ppm CO2 are risen up and the price are $149/tCO2 - $334/tCO2 in the year 2050, 3) Power generation sector play an important role for CO2 emission reduction. Large CO2 emission reduction is really difficult without technology development and diffusion of power generation sector. (author)

  20. Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from

  1. Modeling Earth's Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallant, Amy; Lee, Hee-Sun; Pryputniewicz, Sara

    2012-01-01

    Systems thinking suggests that one can best understand a complex system by studying the interrelationships of its component parts rather than looking at the individual parts in isolation. With ongoing concern about the effects of climate change, using innovative materials to help students understand how Earth's systems connect with each other is…

  2. Impact of Energy and Climate Policies on Electricity Generation - Analysis based on Large-scale Unit Commitment Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Van den Bergh, Kenneth

    2016-01-01

    Electricity generation systems in Europe are undergoing dramatic changes, largely driven by changing energy and climate policies. In this dissertation, three evolutions are dealt with in particular: (1) the deployment of intermittent renewables in electricity systems such as wind and solar photovoltaics, (2) the integration of electricity markets and (3) the mitigation of CO2 emissions from the electricity sector. The focus of this dissertation is on the technical and cost-related aspects...

  3. Exploring Air-Climate-Energy Impacts with GCAM-USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change and energy (ACE) goals. My research focuseson integration of impact factors in GCAM-USA and a...

  4. ModObs: Atmospheric modelling for wind energy, climate and environment applications : exploring added value from new observation technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sempreviva, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    The EC FP6 Marie Curie Training Network "ModObs" http://www.modobs.windeng.net addresses the improvement of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) models to investigate the interplay of processes at different temporal and spatial scales, and to explore the added value from new observation techniques. The overall goal is to bring young scientists to work together with experienced researchers in developing a better interaction amongst scientific communities of modelers and experimentalists, using a comprehensive approach to "Climate Change", "Clean Energy assessment" and "Environmental Policies", issues. This poster describes the work in progress of ten students, funded by the network, under the supervision of a team of scientists within atmospheric physics, engineering and satellite remote sensing and end-users such as companies in the private sector, all with the appropriate expertise to integrate the most advanced research methods and techniques in the following topics. MODELING: GLOBAL-TO-MESO SCALE: Analytical and process oriented numerical models will be used to study the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean on a regional scale. Initial results indicate an interaction between the intensity of polar lows and the subsurface warm core often present in the Nordic Seas (11). The presence of waves, mainly swell, influence the MABL fluxes and turbulence structure. The regional and global wave effect on the atmosphere will be also studied and quantified (7) MESO-SCALE: Applicability of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parametrizations in the meso-scale WRF model to marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) over the North Sea is investigated. The most suitable existing PBL parametrization will be additionally improved and used for downscaling North Sea past and future climates (2). Application of the meso-scale model (MM5 and WRF) for the wind energy in off-shore and coastal area. Set-up of the meso-scale model, post-processing and verification of the data from

  5. The impact of climate change on the European energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented. Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. - Highlights: • Expanded coverage of climate change impacts on European energy system. • Demand side impacts are larger than supply side impacts. • Power from fossil and nuclear sources decreases, renewable energy increases. • Impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. • Synergies exist between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation

  6. A Pedagogical "Toy" Climate Model

    OpenAIRE

    Katz, J. I.

    2010-01-01

    A "toy" model, simple and elementary enough for an undergraduate class, of the temperature dependence of the greenhouse (mid-IR) absorption by atmospheric water vapor implies a bistable climate system. The stable states are glaciation and warm interglacials, while intermediate states are unstable. This is in qualitative accord with the paleoclimatic data. The present climate may be unstable, with or without anthropogenic interventions such as CO$_2$ emission, unless there is additional stabil...

  7. A Pedagogical "Toy" Climate Model

    CERN Document Server

    Katz, J I

    2010-01-01

    A "toy" model, simple and elementary enough for an undergraduate class, of the temperature dependence of the greenhouse (mid-IR) absorption by atmospheric water vapor implies a bistable climate system. The stable states are glaciation and warm interglacials, while intermediate states are unstable. This is in qualitative accord with the paleoclimatic data. The present climate may be unstable, with or without anthropogenic interventions such as CO$_2$ emission, unless there is additional stabilizing feedback such as "geoengineering".

  8. Energy and climate policy in Europe; Energie- und Klimapolitik in Europa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This is a publication of the Baden-Wuerttemberg state center of political education (Landeszentrale fuer Politische Bildung Baden-Wuerttemberg) on energy policy and climate policy in Europe. It discusses the following aspects: Assured supply of energy and climate policy - incompatible goals? Climate policy and energy policy in a global system; Legitimation of the EU by successful energy policy and climate policy; Emission trading: Selling of indulgences or successful instrument? Energy policy in Europe after 1945; From a beacon of hope to a phase-out model? The future of nuclear power; The future of renewable energy sources in Europe. (orig./RHM)

  9. A Climate System Model, Numerical Simulation and Climate Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Qingcun; WANG Huijun; LIN Zhaohui; ZHOU Guangqing; YU Yongqiang

    2007-01-01

    @@ The implementation of the project has lasted for more than 20 years. As a result, the following key innovative achievements have been obtained, ranging from the basic theory of climate dynamics, numerical model development and its related computational theory to the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models:

  10. Climate, Water and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snorrason, A.; Jonsdottir, J. F.

    2004-05-01

    Climate and Energy (CE) is a new Nordic research project with funding from Nordic Energy Research (NEFP) and the Nordic energy sector. The project has the objective of a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate variability and change on Nordic renewable energy resources including hydropower, wind power, bio-fuels and solar energy. This will include assessment of the power production of the hydropower dominated Nordic energy system and its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change on both temporal and spatial scales; assessment of the impacts of extremes including floods, droughts, storms, seasonal patterns and variability. Within the CE project several thematic groups work on specific issues of climatic change and their impacts on renewable energy. A primary aim of the CE climate group is to supply a standard set of common scenarios of climate change in northern Europe and Greenland, based on recent global and regional climate change experiments. The snow and ice group has chosen glaciers from Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden for an analysis of the response of glaciers to climate changes. Mass balance and dynamical changes, corresponding to the common scenario for climate changes, will be modelled and effects on glacier hydrology will be estimated. Preliminary work with dynamic modelling and climate scenarios shows a dramatic response of glacial runoff to increased temperature and precipitation. The statistical analysis group has reported on the status of time series analysis in the Nordic countries. The group has selected and quality controlled time series of stream flow to be included in the Nordic component of the database FRIEND. Also the group will collect information on time series for other variables and these series will be systematically analysed with respect to trend and other long-term changes. Preliminary work using multivariate analysis on stream flow and climate variables shows strong linkages with the long term atmospheric

  11. Model confirmation in climate economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K J

    2016-08-01

    Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  12. Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We use the MESSAGE model to examine multiple dimensions of sustainable development for three Asian regions in a set of scenarios developed for the Asian Modelling Exercise. Using climate change mitigation as a starting point for the analysis, we focus on the interaction of climate and energy with technology choice, energy security, energy access, and air pollution, which often have higher policy priority than climate change. Stringent climate policies drive the future energy supply in Asia from being dominated by coal and oil to a more diversified system based mostly on natural gas, coal with CCS, nuclear and renewable energy. The increase in diversity helps to improve the energy security of individual countries and regions. Combining air pollution control policies and universal energy access policies with climate policy can further help to reduce both outdoor and indoor air pollution related health impacts. Investments into the energy system must double by 2030 to achieve stringent climate goals, but are largely offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution abatement. Strong focus on end-use efficiency also helps lowering overall total costs and allows for limiting or excluding supply side technologies from the mitigation portfolio. Costs of additional energy access policies and measures are a small fraction of total energy system costs. - Highlights: ► Half of added investments in energy offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution. ► Costs for achieving universal energy access much smaller than energy system costs. ► Combined emissions and access policies further reduce air pollution impacts on health. ► Strong focus on end-use efficiency allows for more flexibility on energy sources. ► Stringent climate policy can improve energy security of Asian regions.

  13. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Bavel, van, M.A.H.J.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring cooling. On the whole, the models agreed in regard to calculated air temperature, humidity, and heating requirements. Significant differences were found between the estimates of fan-and-pad (evapo...

  14. Climate and energy challenges for materials science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gielen, Dolf; Boshell, Francisco; Saygin, Deger

    2016-02-01

    The Paris agreement on climate change represents an important step in the design of a new global framework for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency and renewable energy are keys for the success of this ambitious agreement.

  15. Department of Energy, climate program plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As part of the US Climate Program Plan developed by the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences, the DOE is responsible for developing an understanding of and assessment capabilities for: (a) the effects of climate and climate fluctuations on man's generation of power, (b) the effects of power generation and its various fuel processes and/or control technologies on climate, (c) development of blends of power generation and distribution modes that minimize adverse environmental and climatic effects. The DOE Climate Program Plan focuses on these three major roles for DOE in basic and applied research. The purpose of this document is (1) to present background information relevant to these roles, (2) to identify the perceived and potential effects of energy technologies on climate that now merit assessment, (3) to define the need for research on the prediction of weather and climate variations and assessment of their effects on power production, and (4) to outline research goals appropriate to the DOE mission

  16. Wind energy under cold climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B.

    1999-03-01

    There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)

  17. Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.; Hathaway, John E.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Huang, Maoyi; Jin, Chunlian; Kintner-Meyer, Michael C.W.; Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Hongyi; Moss, Richard H.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Voisin, Nathalie; West, Tristram O.

    2015-04-01

    The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization. Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.

  18. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob;

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that...

  19. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  20. Projections of long-term changes in solar radiation based on CMIP5 climate models and their influence on energy yields of photovoltaic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian; Müller, Björn

    2015-04-01

    Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar energy systems, the amount of solar radiation (sunlight) incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be constant over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering the past decades confirm long-term changes in this quantity. Here we examine, how the latest generation of climate models used for the 5th IPCC report projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, solar power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. For this purpose, projections up to the mid 21th century from 39 state of the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analysed globally and for selected key regions with major solar power production capacity. The large model ensemble allows to assess the degree of consistency of their projections. Models are largely consistent in the sign of the projected changes in solar radiation under cloud-free conditions as well as in surface temperatures over most of the globe, while still reasonably consistent over a considerable part of the globe in the sign of changes in cloudiness and associated changes in solar radiation. A first order estimate of the impact of solar radiation and temperature changes on energy yields of PV systems under the RPC8.5 scenario indicates statistically significant decreases in PV outputs in large parts of the world, but notable exceptions with positive trends in parts of Europe and the South-East of China. Projected changes between 2006 and 2049 under the RCP8.5 scenario overall are on the order of 1 % per decade for horizontal planes, but may be larger for tilted or tracked planes as well as on shorter (decadal) timescales. Related References: Wild, M., Folini, D., Henschel, F., and M

  1. Resolution on the program energy-climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document presents the resolutions proposed in the resolution proposition n. 1261 and concerning the european Commission program on the energy policies and the climate change. Twelve resolution are presented on the energy sources development, the energy efficiency, the energy economy and the carbon taxes. (A.L.B.)

  2. Energy, climate change and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is now very little debate that the earth's climate is changing, and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence. Many causes have been postulated and speculation about the eventual outcomes abounds. Whatever eventuates, society will have to adapt to a new and changing climate

  3. Climate system model, numerical simulation and climate predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ Thanks to its work of past more than 20 years,a research team led by Prof.ZENG Qingcun and Prof.WANG Huijun from the CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) has scored innovative achievements in their studies of basic theory of climate dynamics,numerical model development,its related computational theory,and the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models.Their work received a second prize of the National Award for Natural Sciences in 2005.

  4. Climate and Energy Policy in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Csete

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The energy problem has been redefined as one of the most important elements of sustainable development by climate change, adaptation and mitigation. Meeting energy needs is always a current issue in Hungary, irrespective of climate change because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, limited opportunities to replace them with domestic production, and the pollution associated with using fossil energy sources. Increasing effectiveness and saving energy can provide relatively short-term solutions with bearable costs and a relatively quick return on investment. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview about the climate and energy policy in Hungary with a special focus on the new energy strategy. Energy policy has a pivotal role in the economic recovery plan of the Hungarian government. The National Energy Strategy 2030 taking shape in Hungary takes climate policy into account with respect to adaptation and mitigation and lists renewable energy sources as the second most important tool for achieving strategic goals. As in most countries, it is also possible in Hungary to introduce climate strategy measures with zero social costs. The expedient management of climate change requires the combination of prevention, adaptation and dissemination initiatives. Strategies must meet a dual requirement: they must face the economic risks associated with premature measures, while also considering the adverse effects of delay.

  5. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

  6. Likelihood-Based Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braverman, Amy; Cressie, Noel; Teixeira, Joao

    2012-01-01

    Climate models are deterministic, mathematical descriptions of the physics of climate. Confidence in predictions of future climate is increased if the physics are verifiably correct. A necessary, (but not sufficient) condition is that past and present climate be simulated well. Quantify the likelihood that a (summary statistic computed from a) set of observations arises from a physical system with the characteristics captured by a model generated time series. Given a prior on models, we can go further: posterior distribution of model given observations.

  7. Energy budget increases reduce mean streamflow more than snow–rain transitions: using integrated modeling to isolate climate change impacts on Rocky Mountain hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Lauren M.; Bearup, Lindsay A.; Molotch, Noah P.; Brooks, Paul D.; Maxwell, Reed M.

    2016-04-01

    In snow-dominated mountain regions, a warming climate is expected to alter two drivers of hydrology: (1) decrease the fraction of precipitation falling as snow; and (2) increase surface energy available to drive evapotranspiration. This study uses a novel integrated modeling approach to explicitly separate energy budget increases via warming from precipitation phase transitions from snow to rain in two mountain headwaters transects of the central Rocky Mountains. Both phase transitions and energy increases had significant, though unique, impacts on semi-arid mountain hydrology in our simulations. A complete shift in precipitation from snow to rain reduced streamflow between 11% and 18%, while 4 °C of uniform warming reduced streamflow between 19% and 23%, suggesting that changes in energy-driven evaporative loss, between 27% and 29% for these uniform warming scenarios, may be the dominant driver of annual mean streamflow in a warming climate. Phase changes induced a flashier system, making water availability more susceptible to precipitation variability and eliminating the runoff signature characteristic of snowmelt-dominated systems. The impact of a phase change on mean streamflow was reduced as aridity increased from west to east of the continental divide.

  8. Nuclear Energy: Combating Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    of non-OECD countries. COP 21 offers the opportunity to include nuclear energy firmly in future flexibility mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), or a potential successor in the post-2020 period, thus enabling nuclear full potential to reduce climate-change inducing greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this objective, however, it is important to understand the current and potential contribution of nuclear power in reducing future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the appropriate measures that governments can take to address outstanding social, institutional and financial issues so as to ensure the necessary expansion of nuclear generating capacity that will make the 2 deg. scenario a reality

  9. Green paper on energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This green paper was created by the Canadian Environmental Network to initiate a dialogue on climate change and energy issues. Recommendations for energy strategies for Canada beyond 2012 were presented. An overview of recent climate science was presented, as well as various stabilization scenarios needed to prevent further climate change. A review of global energy trends working for and against action to prevent climate change was also provided. It was suggested that the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations can only be achieved when the United States and large developing economies such as China, India and Brazil transform themselves into renewable-energy based economies. Renewable energy and energy efficiency must play a central role in future climate change regimes. It was suggested that nuclear power cannot be considered as an option to reduce GHGs due to its high cost, and on-going public concerns over long-term waste disposal, fuel-cycle health and safety. A viable global framework for stabilizing GHG concentrations built on the current regimes of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol was recommended. It was suggested that richer industrialized nations must take the lead by pursuing absolute reductions and providing assistance to developing nations for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. It was recommended that developing nations should contribute to global mitigation efforts by pursuing low-carbon intensity development paths, and that effective climate change policies must address the economic barriers faced by developing nations. Other recommendations included a regulatory regime for major energy producers and users incorporating progressively lower GHG emission targets; the elimination of all subsidies for the fossil fuel and nuclear fuel-cycle and power industries; the adoption of a national renewable energy strategy; the implementation of a national energy conservation and efficiency

  10. The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) - Enabling Collective Impact on Climate and Energy Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Niepold, F., III

    2015-12-01

    Numerous climate change education efforts exist that aim to enable citizens and society to make informed decisions addressing environmental and societal issues arising from climate change. To extend the reach and impact of these efforts, it is necessary to coordinate them in order to reach a greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network, as an example of a rudimentary form of such an organization, engages in continuous communication through weekly teleconferences, an active listserv and other activities to share resources, activities, and ideas that is moving the network to develop common understandings that will likely lead to the development of effective collective impact on increasing climate and energy literacy. A Spring 2013 survey of the CLEAN Network provided insight as to how the CLEAN Network was addressing member needs and identified what other support was needed to increase its collective impact. In addition, community discussions identified the components needed for an effective overarching backbone support organization. A Fall 2015 survey of the CLEAN Network and the broader climate change education community is being conducted to examine 1) how the CLEAN Network make up and needs have evolved and how they compare to the broader community, and 2) to gather further input into the shaping of the elements of collective impact on climate and energy literacy. This presentation will describe the results from the 2015 survey and compare them to the 2013 survey and the community discussions. This will include describing the CLEAN Network's evolving professional make up, engagement of its members network activities, the importance of the network to members; how the findings compare with the broader climate

  11. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  12. Towards a calibration of building energy models: A case study from the Spanish housing stock in the Mediterranean climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blázquez, T.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Current energy policies focus on retrofitting to achieve Horizon 2020 aims, especially concerning the residential stock constructed before the first thermal regulations. According to this, improving energy efficiency and interior comfort conditions in buildings must be supported by the knowledge of its real energy performance. Due to uncertainty and the lack of information on the current energy performance of housing and its real operational conditions, discrepancies between the results obtained and the measured data arise. Housing monitoring under real occupational conditions become essential for a better understanding of environmental behavior of residential building stock. Our aim is to show the calibration process, based on monitoring data obtained from a group of dwellings of national heritage interest built in the 1950s in Seville (a Mediterranean climate city. Calibration allows simulation results to approximate to current environmental conditions, aiming to predict and optimize the potential for subsequent environmental and energy implementation.Las actuales políticas energéticas europeas proponen la rehabilitación para poder alcanzar los objetivos del Horizonte 2020, especialmente del parque residencial construido antes de las primeras normativas térmicas, debiendo cimentarse la mejora en eficiencia energética y confort en el conocimiento de su comportamiento energético real. Aparecen divergencias entre resultados reales y de simulación debido a las incertidumbres y falta de información sobre el estado actual y las condiciones reales de uso y operacionales. La monitorización bajo condiciones de ocupación real resulta imprescindible para conocer el comportamiento energético y ambiental del parque residencial. Nuestro objetivo es mostrar el proceso de calibración de modelos energéticos, a partir de la monitorización, de unas viviendas de interés patrimonial construidas en los años cincuenta en Sevilla, ciudad de clima

  13. Smart energy strategies. Meeting the climate change challenge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This book published by the Energy Science Center (ESC) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich presents a wide selection of reports on how the challenge of dealing with climate change can be met. The 69 reports included cover a wide range of topics ranging from traffic modelling, biofuels and electrification of power trains, through demand-side management, electricity production and distribution and life cycle assessment, to the integration of wind power and renewable energy technologies. Also, climate policy matters are dealt with as are nano-technology applications in the energy area and the integration of energy conversion and production processes and waste management.

  14. Smart energy strategies. Meeting the climate change challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book published by the Energy Science Center (ESC) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich presents a wide selection of reports on how the challenge of dealing with climate change can be met. The 69 reports included cover a wide range of topics ranging from traffic modelling, biofuels and electrification of power trains, through demand-side management, electricity production and distribution and life cycle assessment, to the integration of wind power and renewable energy technologies. Also, climate policy matters are dealt with as are nano-technology applications in the energy area and the integration of energy conversion and production processes and waste management

  15. A Study of Spatio-Temporal Variability in Future Wind Energy over the Korean Peninsula Using Regional Climate Model Ensemble Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    KIM, Y.; Lim, Y. J.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, B. J.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change on wind speed, wind energy density (WED), and potential electronic production (PEP) over the Korean peninsula have been investigated by using five regional climate models (HadGEM3-RA, RegCM, WRF, GRIMs and MM5) ensemble projection data. HadGEM2-AO based two RCP scenarios (RCP4.5/8.5) data have been used for initial and boundary condition to all RCMs. Wind energy density and its annual and seasonal variability have been estimated based on monthly near-surface wind speeds, and the potential electronic production and its change have been also analyzed. As a result of comparison ensemble models based annual mean wind speed for 25-yr historical period (1981-2005) to the ERA-interim, it is shown that all RCMs overestimate near-surface wind speed compared to the reanalysis data but the results of HadGEM3-RA are most comparable. The changes annual and seasonal mean of WED and PEP for the historical period and comparison results to future projection (2021-2050) will be presented in this poster session. We also scrutinize the changes in mean sea level pressure and mean sea level pressure gradient in driving GCM/RCM as a factor inducing the variations. Our results can be used as a background data for devising a plan to develop and operate wind farm over the Korean Peninsula.

  16. EU energy and climate change strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper will summarise the European Strategy for Energy and Climate Change. In current international negotiations Europe has proposed a 20% reduction in GHG (greenhouse gases) in the developed countries by 2020 or 30% should there be an international agreement in the domain. However it is important to define measures to achieve the targets. One of the principal tools is to improve energy efficiency under the energy efficiency action plan, which will help to achieve a 20% energy saving by 2020. On the other hand, the amount of energy from renewable sources consumed in Europe will have to rise from its current level of 8.5%–20% by 2020. These are ambitious but achievable targets. Nonetheless, these can only be achieved through strong investment in areas of the knowledge triangle which strengthens research and innovation in the energy sector in Europe. The paper covers European Energy and Climate Change Policy, the European Strategic Energy Technology plan, the consequences of the Lisbon Treaty, European and national Road maps to a low carbon economy, the Energy Efficiency Plan for 2011 and finishes with a brief consideration of the EU’s energy infrastructure priorities. -- Highlights: ► This paper summarises the European Strategy for Energy and Climate Change. ► Reduction of GHG emissions by 30%-international agreement or −20% without agreement. ► Use of 20% of renewable energies by 2020. ► Increase of energy efficiency of 20% by 2020. ► Consolidating of the internal energy market.

  17. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunlea, Edward; Elfring, Chris

    2012-12-04

    Climate models are the foundation for understanding and projecting climate and climate-related changes and are thus critical tools for supporting climate-related decision making. This study developed a holistic strategy for improving the nation’s capability to accurately simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial timescales. The committee’s report is a high level analysis, providing a strategic framework to guide progress in the nation’s climate modeling enterprise over the next 10-20 years. This study was supported by DOE, NSF, NASA, NOAA, and the intelligence community.

  18. Climate change and energy: The implications for the Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines the mutual implications between the climate change problem and the actual energy-at-a-crossroads situation of the unsustainable world energy model. The implications for the Spanish case are studied as a case example. The paper provides a brief review of the scientific evidence on climate change, analyzes the causes of the present energy dilemma and characterizes the problem to be addressed. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all countries, with such a diversity of interests. The paper also exposes the most plausible framework for the future climate regime, the basic components of such a regime, the role to be played by the major stake holders and some guidelines for future negotiations. (Author)

  19. Climate politics: Designing energy policy under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Catherine

    2015-06-01

    Countries need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions from the energy sector if the world is to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. But no one is sure of the best path. New research highlights the key uncertainties driving energy policy debate in the UK.

  20. Energy and Climate. Bridging the Geopolitical Gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is a 'hot' subject as an international political topic, and finding more superlatives about climate change after last year' presentation of Al Gore's Inconvenient Truths is difficult. At the 2009 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen a successor has to be found to the present Kyoto Protocol. It is now generally recognized that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have a detrimental effect on the global climate, and emissions seem to increase even more rapidly than when the most pessimistic climate change scenarios are taken into account.1 Fossil energy use is mainly responsible for these emissions. However, despite increasing worldwide recognition that climate change is indeed a serious global problem and mounting rhetoric from political leaders, there is still little evidence that the fundamental changes needed to prevent the potential dangers of climate change are being addressed. This chapter argues that there are at least three geopolitical gaps that need to be closed in order to reach an effective agreement in Copenhagen in 2009. The gaps are closely related to the global political and economic structure of energy supply and demand. They concern a divide, firstly between the United States and Europe, secondly between industrialised and developing countries, and thirdly between fossil fuel exporting and importing countries.

  1. Global Energy Security under Different Climate Policies, GDP Growth Rates and Fossil Resource Availabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica; Vinichenko, Vadim; BAUER, NICO; De Cian, Enrica

    2014-01-01

    Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates the global energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security u...

  2. Major economies Forum on energy and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Major Economies Forum is intended to facilitate an open dialogue among major developed and developing economies, help generate the political leadership necessary to achieve a successful outcome at the United Nations climatic change conference in Copenhagen, and advance the exploration of concrete initiatives and joint ventures that increase the supply of clean energy while cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The Forum's second preparatory meeting was held in Paris in May 2009, mainly focused on greenhouse gas emissions reduction actions and objectives, the diffusion of clean technologies, the financing of activities for climate protection and adaptation to climatic change impacts

  3. Climate change policy is an energy problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In an important respect the climate change (global warming) problem is an energy problem. Any policy aimed at substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will require large amounts of carbon free energy as substitutes for fossil fuels. No conceivable rates of improvement in energy efficiency and/or changes in lifestyles will obviate the need for vast amounts of carbon free energy if GHG emissions are to be reduced and the atmospheric concentration of carbon eventually stabilized. Where will such large amounts of carbon free energy come from? The renewable energies (solar, wind, biomass) are dilute and enormously land-using. Their potential contribution is seemingly limited in a world in which competing demands for land for food production, living space, leisure activities, ecological preserve, and natural resource production are increasing. Nuclear energy is controversial (fission) or problematic (fusion). Fuel cells require hydrogen which must be produced using some other form of energy. Tapping the earth's mantle with its vast amount of geothermal energy may be a future possibility. The present limitations of existing alternatives to fossil fuels suggest climate change policy should focus to a greater extent on what 'can' be done, rather than the present emphasis on what 'should' be done. Once refocused, the aim of climate policy should be to spur a decades long search for and development of new carbon free energy sources and technologies capable of displacing fossil fuels and of eventually meeting the world's baseload energy requirements. (author)

  4. Local authorities in the context of energy and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Several measures to boost the energy system towards a low-carbon future can be planned and implemented by local authorities, such as energy-saving initiatives in public buildings and lighting, information campaigns, and renewable energy pilot projects. This work analyzes the public administration's role in energy and climate policies by assessing carbon-lowering measures for properties and services managed directly by local governments in central Italy. Both short- and long-term schemes were considered in the analysis of local authority energy strategies. The MARKAL-TIMES energy model was applied to long-term energy planning to assess the effect of low-carbon initiatives on public-sector energy consumption up to 2030. Two energy scenarios were built, i.e. a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario based on current or soon-to-be-adopted national policies, and an Exemplary Public Scenario (EPS) including some further virtuous local policies suggested by local authorities. Our results show that a 20% primary energy reduction can be achieved with respect to the baseline year by means of short-term energy policies (5-year time span), while a primary energy saving of about 30% can be reached with longer-term energy policies (25-year time span), even after taking the increase in energy demand into account. This work goes to show the part that local governments can play in energy policy and their contribution to the achievement of climate goals. - Highlights: ► Assessment of Local Administration (LA) role in energy and climate policy. ► Analysis of both short-term and long-term carbon lowering measures. ► Use of MARKAL-TIMES model generator for long-term energy analysis. ► 20% primary energy reduction can be reached with short-term energy policies. ► 30% primary energy reduction can be reached with longer-term energy policies.

  5. Development of a wind energy climate service based on seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torralba, Veronica; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Cortesi, Nicola; Christel, Isadora; González-Reviriego, Nube; Turco, Marco; Soret, Albert

    2016-04-01

    Climate predictions tailored to the wind energy sector represent an innovation to better understand the future variability of wind energy resources. At seasonal time scales current energy practices employ a simple approach based on a retrospective climatology. Instead, probabilistic climate forecasting can better address specific decisions that affect energy demand and supply, as well as decisions relative to the planning of maintenance work. Here we illustrate the advantages that seasonal climate predictions might offer to a wide range of users and discuss the best way to provide them with this information. We use the predictions of 10-meter wind speed from the ECMWF seasonal forecast System 4 (S4). S4, as every operational seasonal forecast system, is affected by a range of biases. Hence, to produce usable climate information from the predictions, different bias-adjustment techniques and downscaling methods should be applied, their choice depending on the user requirements. An ensemble of post-processing methods is described, and their relative merit evaluated as a function of their impact of the characteristics of the forecast error and the usability of the resulting forecasts. Both reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA) and in-situ observations are used as observational references. As an illustration of the downstream impact of the forecasts as a source of climate information, the post-processed seasonal predictions of wind speed will be used as input in a transfer model that translates climate information into generated power at different spatial scales.

  6. The surface energy, water, carbon flux and their intercorrelated seasonality in a global climate-vegetation coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The sensible and latent heat fluxes, representatives of the physical exchange processes of energy and water between land and air, are the two crucial variables controlling the surface energy partitioning related to temperature and humidity. The net primary production (NPP), the major carbon flux exchange between vegetation and atmosphere, is of great importance for the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The fluxes are simulated by a two-way coupled model, Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model-Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (AVIM-GOALS) in which the surface physical and physiological processes are coupled with general circulation model (GCM), and the global spatial and temporal variation of the fluxes is studied. The simulated terrestrial surface physical fluxes are consistent with the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA40) in the global distribution, but the magnitudes are generally 20-40 W/m2 underestimated. The annual NPP agrees well with the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) NPP data except for the lower value in northern high latitudes. The surface physical fluxes, leaf area index (LAI) and NPP of the global mid-latitudes, especially between 30 deg N-50 deg N, show great variation in annual oscillation amplitudes. And all physical and biological fields in northern mid-latitudes have the largest seasonality with a high statistical significance of 99.9%. The seasonality of surface physical fluxes, LAI and NPP are highly correlated with each other. The meridional three-peak pattern of seasonal change emerges in northern mid-latitudes, which indicates the interaction of topographical gradient variation of surface fluxes and vegetation phenology on these three latitudinal belts

  7. Modelling interactions of carbon dioxide, forests, and climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luxmoore, R.J. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Baldocchi, D.D. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1994-09-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising and forests and climate is changing! This combination of fact and premise may be evaluated at a range of temporal and spatial scales with the aid of computer simulators describing the interrelationships between forest vegetation, litter and soil characteristics, and appropriate meteorological variables. Some insights on the effects of climate on the transfers of carbon and the converse effect of carbon transfer on climate are discussed as a basis for assessing the significance of feedbacks between vegetation and climate under conditions of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Three main classes of forest models are reviewed. These are physiologically-based models, forest succession simulators based on the JABOWA model, and ecosystem-carbon budget models that use compartment transfer rates with empirically estimated coefficients. Some regression modeling approaches are also outlined. Energy budget models applied to forests and grasslands are also reviewed. This review presents examples of forest models; a comprehensive discussion of all available models is not undertaken.

  8. Climate, Land, Energy & Water Strategies: A Case Study of Mauritius

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, G; Hizsnyik, E.; H.T. van Velthuizen; Wiberg, D.; Hermann, S.

    2013-01-01

    The study of the Island of Mauritius presented here is a collaborative effort between the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, the Royal Swedish Institute of Technology in Stockholm, the Agricultural Research & Extension Unit in Quatre Bornes, Mauritius and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The Climate, Land, Energy and Water Strategies project (CLEWS) deals with integration of water, energy and land-use models to quantify resource use, greenhouse...

  9. Climatic change and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The data presented in the different chapters lead to show that nuclear energy ids not a sustainable energy sources for the following reasons: investments in nuclear energy account financing that lacks to energy efficiency programmes. The nuclear programmes have negative effects such the need of great electric network, the need of highly qualified personnel, the freezing of innovation in the fields of supply and demand, development of small performing units. The countries resort to nuclear energy are among the biggest carbon dioxide emitters, because big size nuclear power plants lead to stimulate electric power consumption instead of inducing its rational use. Nuclear energy produces only electric power then a part of needs concerns heat (or cold) and when it is taken into account nuclear energy loses its advantages to the profit of cogeneration installations. Finally nuclear energy is a dangerous energy source, difficult to control as the accident occurring at Tokai MURA showed it in 1998. The problem of radioactive wastes is not still solved and the nuclear proliferation constitutes one of the most important threat at the international level. (N.C.)

  10. Energy and Climate Change (Executive Summary)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The world needs urgently to develop a coherent and practical approach to reducing greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions. Energy professionals from across the world have been examining climate change policies to see what works in promoting sustainable development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has recently confirmed that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal and the Stern Report has argued that early action to combat climate change makes economic sense. However, existing efforts are clearly insufficient - most countries with targets under Kyoto Protocol are not on track to meeting them and many countries do not have Kyoto targets. As a result, ghg emissions are still rising and are forecast to go on doing so for decades to come. The problem is not a lack of policies to deal with climate change - some thousands of policies have been introduced, both by countries within the Kyoto system and those outside, and the effort is under way to develop a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. Yet so far those policies are not proving adequate to the scale of the problem. There is a pressing need to understand why they are failing and to implement measures that are more effective in reducing emissions, particularly from the energy sector, which accounts for around two thirds of total ghg emissions. The WEC has therefore undertaken a Study of Energy and Climate Change, drawing on the collective experience and resources of energy professionals worldwide. It has looked in detail at the impact of existing climate change measures and how effective they have been in promoting sustainable development, using the criteria of the three A's - accessibility (to affordable energy); acceptability (of the energy sources used, particularly in environmental terms); and availability (how secure and reliable are those sources?). It is important to remember that sustainable development is not only about the environment - policies which fail to contribute to economic and social

  11. Climate and energy use in glazed spaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, M.

    1996-11-01

    One objective of the thesis has been to elucidate the relationship between building design and the climate, thermal comfort and energy requirements in different types of glazed spaces. Another object has been to study the effect of the glazed spaces on energy requirements in adjacent buildings. It has also been the object to develop a simple calculation method for the assessment of temperatures and energy requirements in glazed spaces. The research work has mainly comprised case studies of existing buildings with glazed spaces and energy balance calculations using both the developed steady-state method and a dynamic building energy simulation program. Parameters such as the geometry of the building, type of glazing, orientation, thermal inertia, airtightness, ventilation system and sunshades have been studied. These parameters are of different importance for each specific type of glazed space. In addition, the significance of each of these parameters varies for different types of glazed spaces. The developed calculation method estimates the minimum and mean temperature in glazed spaces and the energy requirements for heating and cooling. The effect of the glazed space on the energy requirement of the surrounding buildings can also be estimated. It is intended that the method should be applied during the preliminary design stage so that the effect which the design of the building will have on climate and energy requirement may be determined. The method may provide an insight into how glazed spaces behave with regard to climate and energy. 99 refs

  12. Energy security and climate policy. Assessing interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-03-28

    World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising. This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly. The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The 'indicators' are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.

  13. Essays on Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Engström, Gustav

    2012-01-01

    Structural change in a two-sector model of the climate and the economy introduces issues concerning substitutability among goods in a two-sector economic growth model where emissions from fossil fuels give rise to a climate externality. Substitution is modeled using a CES-production function where the intermediate inputs differ only in their technologies and the way they are affected by the climate externality. I derive a simple formula for optimal taxes and resource allocation over time and ...

  14. Climate change, energy, sustainability and pavements

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalakrishnan, Kasthurirangan; Harvey, John

    2014-01-01

    Climate change, energy production and consumption, and the need to improve the sustainability of all aspects of human activity are key inter-related issues for which solutions must be found and implemented quickly and efficiently.  To be successfully implemented, solutions must recognize the rapidly changing socio-techno-political environment and multi-dimensional constraints presented by today's interconnected world.  As part of this global effort, considerations of climate change impacts, energy demands, and incorporation of sustainability concepts have increasing importance in the design,

  15. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  16. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes...

  17. Intercomparison of the capabilities of simplified climate models to project the effects of aviation CO2 on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodayari, Arezoo; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Olsen, Seth C.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje; Lund, Marianne T.; Waitz, Ian; Wolfe, Philip; Forster, Piers M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Lee, David S.; Lim, Ling L.

    2013-08-01

    This study evaluates the capabilities of the carbon cycle and energy balance treatments relative to the effect of aviation CO2 emissions on climate in several existing simplified climate models (SCMs) that are either being used or could be used for evaluating the effects of aviation on climate. Since these models are used in policy-related analyses, it is important that the capabilities of such models represent the state of understanding of the science. We compare the Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) Impacts climate model, two models used at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO-1 and CICERO-2), the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) model as described in Jain et al. (1994), the simple Linear Climate response model (LinClim) and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change version 6 (MAGICC6). In this paper we select scenarios to illustrate the behavior of the carbon cycle and energy balance models in these SCMs. This study is not intended to determine the absolute and likely range of the expected climate response in these models but to highlight specific features in model representations of the carbon cycle and energy balance models that need to be carefully considered in studies of aviation effects on climate. These results suggest that carbon cycle models that use linear impulse-response-functions (IRF) in combination with separate equations describing air-sea and air-biosphere exchange of CO2 can account for the dominant nonlinearities in the climate system that would otherwise not have been captured with an IRF alone, and hence, produce a close representation of more complex carbon cycle models. Moreover, results suggest that an energy balance model with a 2-box ocean sub-model and IRF tuned to reproduce the response of coupled Earth system models produces a close representation of the globally-averaged temperature response of more complex energy balance models.

  18. Resolution on the program energy-climate; Resolution sur le paquet energie-climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This document presents the resolutions proposed in the resolution proposition n. 1261 and concerning the european Commission program on the energy policies and the climate change. Twelve resolution are presented on the energy sources development, the energy efficiency, the energy economy and the carbon taxes. (A.L.B.)

  19. Assessment of China's climate commitment and non-fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid AIM/CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China made a commitment in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP from 40% to 45% compared with the 2005 level by 2020, and is determined to vigorously develop non-fossil fuels. This study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments with a hybrid static CGE model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated into 12 generation technologies. Four scenarios are developed, including the reference scenario A, the reference scenario B and two carbon constraint scenarios. The results show that carbon intensity in terms of GDP will fall by 30.97% between 2005 and 2020 in the reference scenario A, and will be reduced further by 7.97% if China's targeted non-fossil energy development plans can be achieved in the reference scenario B. However, the rest of the 40-45% target must be realized by other measures such as carbon constraint. It is also observed that due to carbon intensity constraints, GDP loss would be from 0.032% to 0.24% compared to the reference scenario B, and CO2 emission reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in the electricity sector and manufacturing sector. - Research highlights: → The effects of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments are analyzed. → Twelve generation technologies are included in electricity sector. → China's energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2020 are presented. → Impacts of CO2 emission reduction on China's economy are studied.

  20. Climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector : workshop report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This workshop on climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector was conducted in order to develop a climate change work plan for the Council of Energy Ministers (CEM) as well as to develop awareness and dialogue within Canada's energy sector. Industry members and government officials identified findings from recent assessment reports on climate change adaptation and discussed ways in which the international oil and gas industry is currently adapting its operations and technologies to ensure continuing safety and risk mitigation. The use of hydrological models to forecast the potential impacts of climate change was discussed, and the drivers of climate change adaptation were reviewed. A total of 26 topics were identified, 13 of which were prioritized for group discussions based on their impact and urgency. The following 5 topics were finally identified as top priority topics: (1) climate change adaptation science, (2) co-ordinated local, provincial, national, and international policies, (3) information sharing and knowledge transfer, (4) aging infrastructure and increasing demand, and (5) market mechanisms for adaptation. Four presentations were given during the initial portion of the workshop. 4 tabs., 1 fig

  1. Evaluation of climate change impacts on energy demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taseska, Verica; Markovska, Natasa; Callaway, John M.

    2012-01-01

    change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal...... Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages and...

  2. Energy saving systems in hot humid climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadjilambi, A.; D'Aquilo, A.; Rodenberg, O.

    2014-01-01

    This "designers' manual" is made during the TIDO-course AR0533 Innovation & Sustainability. The aim of this manual is the description and comparison of several systems and strategies for cooling buildings in hot humid climates. To cool down a building you need to move the energy from a space or fro

  3. The Paris-Nairobi climate initiative. Access to clean energy for all in Africa and countries vulnerable to climate change. Access to energy, sustainable development and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The first part of this report highlights the importance of a universal access to energy, the role of public policies and renewable energies, the need to implement sustainable economic models for energy services, and indicates the major objectives and essential actions for these purposes. The second part outlines the weakness of electricity production in Africa, the degradation of the energy mix balance, the vulnerability to climate change, and the fact that Africa, like other countries vulnerable to climate change, possess huge and unexploited renewable energy resources (biomass, hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind). The third part proposes an approach to energy services by developing sustainable cooking, supplying energy to support rural development and to poles of economic growth, by developing sustainable cities (notably in transports and buildings), and by developing national and regional electricity grids. The last part addresses the issue of energy financing in developing countries

  4. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. - Research Highlights: → Preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction. → This could be achieved through strong changes in the energy mix. → Similar results would apply to any climate system tipping points.

  5. Climate studies with a multi-layer energy balance model. I - Model description and sensitivity to the solar constant. II - The role of feedback mechanisms in the CO2 problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, L.; Chou, M.-D.; Arking, A.

    1982-01-01

    A nine-layer zonally averaged, steady-state model, based upon thermal energy balance, is developed for use in climate sensitivity studies and includes an accurate treatment of radiative transfer, parameterized meridional and vertical energy transport, and thermodynamic interaction between the surface and the atmosphere. A high degree of nonlinearity is exhibited by the model in a study of sensitivity to changes in the solar constant. The change in the hemispheric mean surface temperature is +3.1 C in response to a 2% increase in the solar constant and -4.3 C in response to a 2% decrease in the solar constant. The sensitivity varies with latitude, and the response of atmospheric temperature varies with height. In addition, the model is used to study the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 content. It is found that the tropospheric temperature lapse rate decreases at low latitudes but increases at high latitudes in response to a doubled CO2 content. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere, the change is +2.3 C in the surface temperature and +0.47 C in the earth's brightness temperature. The effects of some feedback mechanisms on the climate sensitivity to a doubled CO2 content show that the sensitivity of surface temperature approximately doubles at all latitudes due to the change in water vapor content.

  6. Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand

  7. Towards a calibration of building energy models: A case study from the Spanish housing stock in the Mediterranean climate

    OpenAIRE

    Blázquez, T.; Suárez, R.; Sendra, J. J.

    2015-01-01

    Current energy policies focus on retrofitting to achieve Horizon 2020 aims, especially concerning the residential stock constructed before the first thermal regulations. According to this, improving energy efficiency and interior comfort conditions in buildings must be supported by the knowledge of its real energy performance. Due to uncertainty and the lack of information on the current energy performance of housing and its real operational conditions, discrepancies between the results obtai...

  8. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  9. ESCIMO.spread – a spreadsheet-based point snow surface energy balance model to calculate hourly snow water equivalent and melt rates for historical and changing climate conditions

    OpenAIRE

    T. Marke; U. Strasser

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the spreadsheet-based point energy balance model ESCIMO.spread which simulates the energy and mass balance as well as melt rates of a snow surface. The model makes use of hourly recordings of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, global and longwave radiation. The effect of potential climate change on the seasonal evolution of the snow cover can be estimated by modifying the time series of observed temperature and precipitation by means of adjustable ...

  10. ESCIMO.spread – a spreadsheet-based point snow surface energy balance model to calculate hourly snow water equivalent and melt rates for historical and changing climate conditions

    OpenAIRE

    U. Strasser; T. Marke

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the spreadsheet-based point energy balance model ESCIMO.spread which simulates the energy and mass balance as well as melt rates at the snow surface. The model makes use of hourly recordings of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and incoming global and longwave radiation. The effect of potential climate change on the seasonal evolution of the snow cover can be estimated by modifying the time series of observed temperature and precipitation by means...

  11. Building energy efficiency in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy simulation was conducted for office buildings in the five major climate zones - severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, mild, and hot summer and warm winter - in China using DOE-2.1E. The primary aim was to investigate the thermal and energy performance of office buildings with centralised heating, ventilation and air conditioning plants in the major climatic zones in China. The computed results were analysed in three aspects - heating load, cooling load and the corresponding building energy consumption. The building peak monthly heating load varied from 142 MW h (1033 MW h cooling) in Hong Kong to 447 MW h (832 MW h cooling) in Harbin. It was also found that passive solar designs could have large energy savings potential in the severe cold and cold climates. In Harbin, the window solar component helped lower the annual building heating load by 650 MW h. Internal loads (lighting and office equipment) and part load operations of fans and pumps also played a significant role in the overall building energy efficiency. This paper presents the work, its findings and energy efficiency implications

  12. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  13. Energy, climate, development, the time of choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The construction of our societies was based on a strong energy dependence with no care about the perenniality of resources and about the possible existence of alternative solutions. Only an abatement of our energy dependence can allow us to get out of the present day risky situation: shortages, climate, pollutions.. But how can we concretely achieve it? How can we improve energy efficiency and saving, develop renewable energy sources and limit our use of nuclear and fossil energies? Is there a risk of downgrading our quality of life? This book shows on the contrary that a sparing and provident society can offer satisfying, stable and sustainable living conditions to its population. A new development indicator is to be invented. It should take into account both energy and human criteria. Such a measure is proposed in this book. It will be necessary to include in the energy price, the cost of its increasing scarcity and of it comprehensive life cycle. (J.S.)

  14. Energy and global climate change issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper considers the policy questions associated with global warming and with the fact that such policies will lead to future differences in the use of energy sources. Also discussed are the causes and the evidence of the greenhouse effect, as well as the human activities that have contributed to the growth in the concentrations of carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane and nitrous oxide, as well as to ozone changes. The responses of the Earth-atmosphere system to these increases in greenhouse gases are surface warming, increased water vapour, changes in the reflecting properties of ice-snow and alterations to the ecosystem. For calculating such climate changes, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed four scenarios for the future emissions of greenhouse gases and suggests that options for managing predicted climate change are likely to be combinations of slowing down as well as adapting to that change. (author). 1 ref., 10 figs, 5 tabs

  15. Danish and global climate and energy challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, John M. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Davidson, O. (Univ. of Sierra Leone, IPCC (Sierra Leone))

    2008-12-15

    The global energy scene is currently dominated by two overriding concerns that are strongly affecting decisions about energy development priorities: 1) Climate change 2) Energy security. This is especially true for industrialized countries and the more rapidly developing economies while many developing countries are facing really basic energy development constraints giving quite a different meaning to the concept of energy security. There is broad global recognition of the need to support these countries in their efforts to increase access to cleaner and more efficient forms of energy for the more than 1,6 billion people currently having no access to electricity and largely relying on traditional forms of biomass for basic energy services, but progress is slow in many regions. The three areas, security, climate and poverty are in several ways interlinked, and ideally national energy policies and development programmes should address all the above issues - or at least not have negative effects in any area. In practice, however, many national policy landscapes have been dominated by just one of these factors. In the political debate the access issue is often seen as a potential climate problem, but most studies indicate that access to basic energy services for the poorest one billion people, even based on fossil resources, will make very marginal contributions to global GHG emissions. The more relevant and pressing political concern is how to limit global emissions and allow the emerging economies to continue their economic growth, but as discussed in this report the technological options will be available and solutions depend on political will and agreements on sharing the technologies and financial resources. (au)

  16. The forest products industry at an energy/climate crossroads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Transformational energy and climate policies are being debated worldwide that could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. Because woody biomass can produce alternative transportation fuels, low-carbon electricity, and numerous other 'green' products in addition to traditional paper and lumber commodities, the future use of forest resources is highly uncertain. Using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), this paper assesses the future of the forest products industry under three possible U.S. policy scenarios: (1) a national renewable electricity standard, (2) a national policy of carbon constraints, and (3) incentives for industrial energy efficiency. In addition, we discuss how these policy scenarios might interface with the recently strengthened U.S. renewable fuels standards. The principal focus is on how forest products including residues might be utilized under different policy scenarios, and what such market shifts might mean for electricity and biomass prices, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results underscore the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and climate policies in order to moderate electricity and biomass price escalation while strengthening energy security and reducing CO2 emissions. - Research highlights: →Transformational energy and climate policies such as a national renewable electricity standard, a national policy of carbon constraints, and incentives for industrial energy efficiency could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. →Each policy scenario reduces CO2 emissions over time, compared to the business-as-usual forecast, with the carbon constrained policy producing the largest decline. As a package, the three policies together could cut CO2 emissions from the electricity sector by an estimated 41% by 2030. →This study underscores the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and

  17. Climate Control Using Nuclear Energy

    CERN Document Server

    Modgil, Moninder Singh

    2008-01-01

    We examine implications of anthropogenic low pressure regions, - created by injecting heat from nuclear reactors, into atmosphere. We suggest the possibility that such artificially generated low pressure regions, near hurricanes could disrupt their growth, path, and intensity. This method can also create controlled tropical stroms, which lead to substantial rainfall in arid areas, such as - (1)Sahara desert, (2) Australian interior desert, and (3) Indian Thar desert. A simple vortex suction model is developed to study, effect on atmospheric dynamics, by such a nuclear heat injection system.

  18. An Appraisal of Coupled Climate Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K; Gleckler, P; Covey, C; Taylor, K; Bader, D; Phillips, T; Fiorino, M; Achutarao, K

    2004-02-24

    In 2002, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) proposed the concept for a state-of-the-science appraisal of climate models to be performed approximately every two years. Motivation for this idea arose from the perceived needs of the international modeling groups and the broader climate research community to document progress more frequently than provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. A committee of external reviewers, which included senior researchers from four leading international modeling centers, supported the concept by stating in its review: ''The panel enthusiastically endorses the suggestion that PCMDI develop an independent appraisal of coupled model performance every 2-3 years. This would provide a useful 'mid-course' evaluation of modeling progress in the context of larger IPCC and national assessment activities, and should include both coupled and single-component model evaluations.''

  19. Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

    2014-12-01

    Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  20. Applying the concept of "energy return on investment" to desert greening of the Sahara/Sahel using a global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowring, S. P. K.; Miller, L. M.; Ganzeveld, L.; Kleidon, A.

    2014-01-01

    Altering the large-scale dynamics of the Earth system through continual and deliberate human intervention now seems possible. In doing so, one should question the energetic sustainability of such interventions. Here, from the basis that a region might be unnaturally vegetated by employing technological means, we apply the metric of "energy return on investment" (EROI) to benchmark the energetic sustainability of such a scenario. We do this by applying EROI to a series of global climate model simulations where the entire Sahara/Sahel region is irrigated with increased rates of desalinated water to produce biomass. The energy content of this biomass is greater than the energy input rate for a minimum irrigation rate of about 200 mm yr-1 in the winter and 500 mm yr-1 in the summer, thereby yielding an EROI ratio >1 : 1, expressing energetic sustainability. Quantified annually, the EROI was >1 : 1 for irrigation rates more than 500 mm yr-1, progressively increasing to a maximum of 1.8 : 1 with 900 mm yr-1, and then decreasing with further increases in the irrigation rate. Including the precipitation feedback arising from changes in moisture recycling within the study region approximately doubles these EROI ratios. This overall result varies spatially and temporally, so while the entire Sahara/Sahel region is irrigated equally, the western coastal region from June to August had the highest EROI. Other factors would complicate such a large-scale modification of the Earth system, but this sensitivity study concludes that with a required energy input, desert greening may be energetically sustainable. More specifically, we have shown how this type of EROI analysis could be applied as a metric to assess a diverse range of human alterations to, and interventions within, the Earth system.

  1. Modeling and assessing international climate financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

    2016-06-01

    Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

  2. Climate Modeling in the Calculus and Differential Equations Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kose, Emek; Kunze, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Students in college-level mathematics classes can build the differential equations of an energy balance model of the Earth's climate themselves, from a basic understanding of the background science. Here we use variable albedo and qualitative analysis to find stable and unstable equilibria of such a model, providing a problem or perhaps a…

  3. Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Declan; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Deryng, Delphine; Dorling, Steve; Krueger, Tobias; Landman, Willem; Lankford, Bruce; Lebek, Karen; Osborn, Tim; Ringler, Claudia; Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Dalin, Carole

    2015-09-01

    In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven, for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and gross domestic product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose: the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water.

  4. Evaluating models of climate and forest vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, James S.

    1992-01-01

    Understanding how the biosphere may respond to increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere requires models that contain vegetation responses to regional climate. Most of the processes ecologists study in forests, including trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, and vital components of the world economy, such as forest products and agriculture, will be influenced in potentially unexpected ways by changing climate. These vegetation changes affect climate in the following ways: changing C, N, and S pools; trace gases; albedo; and water balance. The complexity of the indirect interactions among variables that depend on climate, together with the range of different space/time scales that best describe these processes, make the problems of modeling and prediction enormously difficult. These problems of predicting vegetation response to climate warming and potential ways of testing model predictions are the subjects of this chapter.

  5. Induced innovation in a decentralized model of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti; Andrew Leach

    2006-01-01

    We propose a model of climate change consistent with four principal stylized facts. First, the benefits and costs of climate change mitigation policies are not evenly distributed across generations. Second, capital accumulation is not determined jointly with emissions policy, but rather as a choice made by self-interested economic agents. Third, most research and development activity in the energy sector is undertaken by private firms. Fourth, significant imperfections exist in the market for...

  6. Energy policy and climate change in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problem of massive emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the burning of fossil fuels and their climatic impact have become major scientific and political issues. Future stabilization of the atmospheric CO2 content requires a drastic decrease of CO2 emissions worldwide. In this study, energy utilization and its major environmental impacts are discussed from the standpoint of sustainable development, including anticipated patterns of future energy use and subsequent environmental issues in Turkey. Several aspects relating to energy utilization, renewable energy, energy efficiency, environment and sustainable development are examined from both current and future perspectives. Turkey is an energy importing country; with more than half of the energy requirement being supplied by imports. Domestic oil and lignite reserves are limited, and the lignites are characterised by high ash, sulfur and moisture contents. Because of increasing energy consumption, air pollution is becoming a great environmental concern for the future in the country. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development and environmental pollution prevention in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of the renewable energy sources

  7. Climate change, energy, sustainability and pavements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Provides an integrated perspective on understanding the impacts of climate change, energy and sustainable development on transportation infrastructure systems. Presents recent technological innovations and emerging concepts in the field of green and sustainable transportation infrastructure systems with a special focus on highway and airport pavements. Written by leading experts in the field. Climate change, energy production and consumption, and the need to improve the sustainability of all aspects of human activity are key inter-related issues for which solutions must be found and implemented quickly and efficiently. To be successfully implemented, solutions must recognize the rapidly changing socio-techno-political environment and multi-dimensional constraints presented by today's interconnected world. As part of this global effort, considerations of climate change impacts, energy demands, and incorporation of sustainability concepts have increasing importance in the design, construction, and maintenance of highway and airport pavement systems. To prepare the human capacity to develop and implement these solutions, many educators, policy-makers and practitioners have stressed the paramount importance of formally incorporating sustainability concepts in the civil engineering curriculum to educate and train future civil engineers well-equipped to address our current and future sustainability challenges. This book will prove a valuable resource in the hands of researchers, educators and future engineering leaders, most of whom will be working in multidisciplinary environments to address a host of next-generation sustainable transportation infrastructure challenges.

  8. Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, James I; Bucklin, David N; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A; Mazzotti, Frank J; Romañach, Stephanie S

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 ) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species. PMID

  9. Energy and climate protection management, the key to higher energy efficiency in communities; Energie- und Klimaschutzmanagement. Der Schluessel zu mehr Energieeffizienz in Kommunen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-15

    The brochure explains the dena energy and climate protection management concepts and presents tools for long-term reduction of energy consumption in communities. It presents valuable information for better organization of internal processes in community administrations and for the management of energy efficiency measures. The dena energy and climate protection management concept is developed in cooperation with model communities of different sizes since 2010. All interested communities can use this brochure as a guide for initiating effective climate protection measures.

  10. Energy, world should not chose nuclear energy to fight against climatic change. Nuclear and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document proposes an abstract of the conclusions of an expert group, the Oxford Research Group, which criticizes the today boost in favor of the electricity from nuclear energy. They explain that the nuclear energy should not be a solution for the fight against the climatic change. (A.L.B.)

  11. Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that the economic growth seen in recent decades will continue has dominated the discussion of future greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Given that long-term economic growth is uncertain, the impacts of a wide range of growth trajectories should be considered. In particular, slower economic growth would imply that future generations will be relatively less able to invest in emissions controls or adapt to the detrimental impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the possibility of economic slowdown therefore heightens the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions now by moving to renewable energy sources, even if this incurs short-term economic cost. I quantify this counterintuitive impact of economic growth assumptions on present-day policy decisions in a simple global economy-climate model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE. In DICE, slow future growth increases the economically optimal present-day carbon tax rate and the utility of taxing carbon emissions, although the magnitude of the increase is sensitive to model parameters, including the rate of social time preference and the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. Future scenario development should specifically include low-growth scenarios, and the possibility of low-growth economic trajectories should be taken into account in climate policy analyses.

  12. Integrated science model for assessment of climate change. Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Past measurements show that greenhouse gas concentrations, many of which are affected by human related activities, are increasing in the atmosphere. There is wide consensus that this increase influences related activities, are increasing the earth's energy balance and concern that this will cause significant change in climate. Many different policies could be adopted in response to the prospects of greenhouse warming. Models are used by policy markers to analyze the range of possible policy options developed as a response to concerns about climate change. A fully integrated assessment model that spans the many aspects of climate change, including economics, energy options, effects of climate, and impacts of climate change, would be a useful tool. With this goal in mind, the science modules which estimate the effect of emissions of greenhouse gasses on global temperature and sea level are being developed. This is a report of the current characteristics and performance of an Integrated Science Model which consists of coupled modules for carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry of other trace gases, radiative forcing by greenhouse gases, energy balance model for global temperature, and a model for sea level response

  13. The new energy challenges: climate, economy, geopolitics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oil, coal and natural gas, three polluting and non-renewable energies, supply more than 80% of the World daily energy consumption. Today, the scientific community has acknowledged the responsibility of this consumption on the global warming which may have dramatic impacts on physical, economical, social and political equilibria of our planet. Climate has become a public resource which belongs to everybody, the management of which should be done collectively and prospectively. However, the nation-states defend their wealth, their immediate interest without globalization and long-term outlook. This book treats of the new energy challenges under their regional and global aspects. This allows to better understand the dynamics of a multipolar world. Each region of the world has its own specificity, its capital of natural resources, its history, its own level of economic development, and its vulnerability with respect to climate change. For hundreds of million people, priority is given to the economic growth and wealth generation, but such a priority is synonymous of rise of the energy consumption and increase of greenhouse gas emissions. This opposition between 'more energy' and 'less emissions' is source of new economical and geopolitical tensions. Only a reinforcement of the world governance can solve these contradictions by the affirmation of a solidarity between populations, and for the first time, between generations. (J.S.)

  14. Soil moisture and root water uptake in climate models. Research Programme Climate Changes Spatial Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Dam, van, P.H.A.; Metselaar, K.; Wipfler, E.L.; Feddes, R.A.; Meijgaard, van, E.; Hurk, van den, B.J.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    More accurate simulation of the energy and water balance near the Earth surface is important to improve the performance of regional climate models. We used a detailed ecohydrological model to rank the importance of vegetation and soil factors with respect to evapotranspiration modeling. The results show that type of lower boundary condition, root zone depth, and temporal course of leaf area index have the strongest effect on yearly and monthly evapotranspiration. Soil texture data from the WI...

  15. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  16. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Demosthenous

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

  17. Climate change impact on wave energy in the Persian Gulf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamranzad, Bahareh; Etemad-Shahidi, Amir; Chegini, Vahid; Yeganeh-Bakhtiary, Abbas

    2015-06-01

    Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth's temperature, and consequently have changed the patterns of natural phenomena such as wind speed, wave height, etc. Renewable energy resources are ideal alternatives to reduce the negative effects of increasing greenhouse gases emission and climate change. However, these energy sources are also sensitive to changing climate. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave energy in the Persian Gulf is investigated. For this purpose, future wind data obtained from CGCM3.1 model were downscaled using a hybrid approach and modification factors were computed based on local wind data (ECMWF) and applied to control and future CGCM3.1 wind data. Downscaled wind data was used to generate the wave characteristics in the future based on A2, B1, and A1B scenarios, while ECMWF wind field was used to generate the wave characteristics in the control period. The results of these two 30-yearly wave modelings using SWAN model showed that the average wave power changes slightly in the future. Assessment of wave power spatial distribution showed that the reduction of the average wave power is more in the middle parts of the Persian Gulf. Investigation of wave power distribution in two coastal stations (Boushehr and Assalouyeh ports) indicated that the annual wave energy will decrease in both stations while the wave power distribution for different intervals of significant wave height and peak period will also change in Assalouyeh according to all scenarios.

  18. Planetary boundary layer energetics simulated from a regional climate model over Europe for present climate and climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, E.; Yagüe, C.; Gaertner, M. A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a description of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) for current (1960-1990) and future (2070-2100) climate periods as obtained from a regional climate model (RCM) centered on the Mediterranean basin. Vertically integrated turbulent kinetic energy (TKEZ) and boundary layer height (z i ) are used to describe PBL energetics. Present climate shows a TKEZ annual cycle with a clear summer maximum for southern regions, while northern regions of Europe exhibit a smoother or even a lack of cycle. Future climate conditions exhibit a similar behaviour, with an increase in the summer maximum peaks. A detailed analysis of summer surface climate change energetics over land shows an increased Bowen ratio and decreases in the evaporative fraction. The enhanced sensible heat flux responsible for these results causes an energy surplus inside the PBL, resulting in increased convective activity and corresponding TKEZ. These results are consistent with temperature increases obtained by several other model simulations, and also indicate that changes in the turbulent transport from the PBL to the free troposphere can affect atmospheric circulations.

  19. Recent changes in energy and freshwater budgets for the Godthåbsfjord catchment simulated in a 5 km regional climate model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater input to the Godthåbsfjord (Southwest Greenland) is analyzed with special attention on the melt and runoff from the ice sheet. We use the high resolution (5.5 km) HIRHAM5 regional climate model covering all of Greenland, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis at the lateral boundaries ov...

  20. An analysis of the sensitivity of a dynamic climate-economy CGE model (GDynE) to empirically estimated energy-related elasticity parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Alessandro Antimiani; Valeria Costantini; Elena Paglialunga

    2015-01-01

    A dynamic energy-economic CGE model is used to analyse how sensitive simulation results are to alternative values assumed by several types of elasticity of substitution. Substitutability in the energy mix is analysed by taking into account the nest structure of the CGE model in the energy module. Input substitutability in the production function is tested for the relationship between capital and energy in different manufacturing sectors. The simulation exercise reveals that the model produces...

  1. National Energy Policy and Climate Change Prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change prevention has become one of the major concerns of environmental policy in the Netherlands. The Dutch government has set definite targets for CO2 emissions in the coming decade. These targets and the measures necessary to reach them are described in the paper. In addition, the technical feasibility of realizing the Toronto objective of a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions by the year 2005 in the Netherlands is discussed. It appears that energy conservation options are most crucial for the short-term, but that eventually new supply technologies are needed to obtain drastic reductions in the long term. The increased need for research and development efforts has led to two innovative research programmes on sustainable energy development in the Netherlands. The ENGINE (ENergy Generation In the Natural Environment) programme is implemented by the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) and addresses the specific problems associated with the three major components of supply: cleanliness in the case of fossil fuels, safety in the case of nuclear energy, and costs in the case of renewable sources. The complementary SYRENE (SYstem integration of Renewable ENergy and End use) is implemented by the Netherlands Agency for Energy and Environment (NOVEM) and addresses the system aspects of sustainable energy development. The objectives and approaches of these two programmes are briefly presented. 1 fig., 1 tab., 4 refs

  2. Point Climat no. 26 'Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans at the heart of the debate on the energy transition'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Briefs' presents, in a few pages, hot topics in climate change policy. This issue addresses the following points: On the eve of the introduction of the environmental assessment procedure for planning documents, almost all Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans have now been published. This Climate Brief assesses regional climate strategies, which rely on significant commitment from those involved, including citizens by changing their behaviour, companies by improving their energy efficiency and the banking sector through financial support. Identification of these challenges and areas for action will feed into the national debate on energy transition which began last autumn

  3. SHALE GAS: AN ENERGY MIRACLE OR A CLIMATE DISASTER?

    OpenAIRE

    Klimenko, Vladimir; Tereshin, Alexey

    2014-01-01

    In recent years one has witnessed an increasing interest in the shale gas issue with the greatest level of concern at different levels of society, up to the political ones. The present article analyzes data on the shale gas resources, both worldwide and in certain regions. The authors assess the possibilities of shale gas production and prospects of its use to substitute other types of energy. They also present the model of atmosphere and climate change due to emissions from additional unconv...

  4. Transitions in climate and energy discourse between Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy

    CERN Document Server

    Cody, Emily M; Bagrow, James P; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

    2015-01-01

    Although climate change and energy are intricately linked, their explicit connection is not always prominent in public discourse and the media. Disruptive extreme weather events, including hurricanes, focus public attention in new and different ways, offering a unique window of opportunity to analyze how a focusing event influences public opinion. Simultaneously shaping and reflecting public discourse, media coverage of extreme weather events reflects public opinion of climate issues. Here we analyze climate and energy media coverage of Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012) using topic models, mathematical techniques used to discover abstract topics within a set of documents. Our results demonstrate that post-Katrina media coverage does not contain a climate change topic, and the energy topic is limited to discussion of energy prices, markets, and the economy with almost no explicit linkages made between energy and climate change. In contrast, post-Sandy media coverage does contain a prominent climate ch...

  5. Modeling Renewable Water Resources under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Tang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    The impacts of climate change on renewable water resources are usually assessed using hydrological models driven by downscaled climate outputs from global climate models. Most hydrological models do not have explicit parameterization of vegetation and thus are unable to assess the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on stomatal conductance and water loss of leaf. The response of vegetation to elevated atmospheric CO2 would reduce evaporation and affect runoff and renewable water resources. To date, the impacts of elevated CO2 on vegetation transpiration were not well addressed in assessment of water resources under climate change. In this study, the distributed biosphere-hydrological (DBH) model, which incorporates a simple biosphere model into a distributed hydrological scheme, was used to assess the impacts of elevated CO2 on vegetation transpiration and consequent runoff. The DBH model was driven by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each climate scenario, two model experiments were conducted. The atmospheric CO2 concentration in one experiment was assumed to remain at the level of 2000 and increased as described by the RCPs in the other experiment. The results showed that the elevated CO2 would result in decrease in evapotranspiration, increase in runoff, and have considerable impacts on water resources. However, CO2 induced runoff change is generally small in dry areas likely because vegetation is usually sparse in the arid area.

  6. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

  7. China's Energy Reform and Climate Policy: The Ideas Motivating Change

    OpenAIRE

    Olivia Boyd

    2012-01-01

    China has embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented programme of energy reform and climate change mitigation. Yet the motivations for this important shift remain unclear. This paper surveys key central government documents and articles by China's leading energy academics to investigate the ideas influencing China's new energy and climate policies. Three key ideas in particular are supportive of greater climate mitigation than in the past. First, domestic energy security concerns have risen o...

  8. The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, W D; Blackmon, M; Bitz, C; Bonan, G; Bretherton, C S; Carton, J A; Chang, P; Doney, S; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Henderson, T; Large, W G; McKenna, D; Santer, B D; Smith, R D

    2004-12-27

    A new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for atmosphere and land and a 1-degree grid for ocean and sea-ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the scientific formulation. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed-layer processes, and sea-ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea-ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, equatorial sea-surface temperatures, ocean currents, cloud radiative effects, and ENSO teleconnections. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millenial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean-atmosphere fluxes in western coastal regions, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. We conclude with the prospects for extending CCSM to a more comprehensive model of the Earth's climate system.

  9. Fuel switching and climate and energy policies in the European power generation sector: A generalized Leontief model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze: (a) the role and the nature of price-induced switching behavior between fossil fuels (i.e., coal, oil, and natural gas) in the western European power sector; as well as (b) the fuel choice impacts of a number of public policies implemented in this sector during the last 20 years. The analysis is conducted within a Generalized Leontief cost function framework, and employs pooled data across eight countries over the time period 1978–2004. We present short-run own- and cross-price elasticities of fossil fuel demand, and assess the impacts of a set of government policies implemented over this time period. The empirical results show evidence of notable short-run interfuel substitution between oil and gas, and particularly in countries where fossil fuels are used extensively for both base and peak load purposes. These findings support the notion that ex post fossil fuel substitution takes place in dual- and multi-fired plants, by switching load between different single-fuel fired plants, as well as through the conversion of power plants to be able to burn alternate fuels. The results also illustrate that different public policies – i.e., removal of coal subsidies, electricity market liberalization etc. – have had profound impacts on fossil fuel choices and have in particular favored power generation gas use at the expense of coal. Finally, the paper makes use of the empirical results to simulate the fuel switching impacts of different carbon prices within the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). - Highlights: ► We investigate price-induced switching behavior between fossil fuels in the European power sector. ► We employ a Generalized Leontief model using data across eight countries over the period 1978–2004. ► We find notable short-run interfuel substitution, and particularly between oil and gas. ► The results show that public policies have had profound impacts on fossil fuel choices. ► We simulate the

  10. Climate model uncertainty vs. conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. O. Sonnenborg

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including CO2 emission scenario, climate model, downscaling and impact model. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B. The changes from the reference period (1991–2010 to the future period (2081–2100 in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty on the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.

  11. Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnenborg, T. O.; Seifert, D.; Refsgaard, J. C.

    2015-09-01

    Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including in CO2 emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project) forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B). The changes from the reference period (1991-2010) to the future period (2081-2100) in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context-dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty due to the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.

  12. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  13. Challenges in Modeling Regional Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, L.

    2013-12-01

    Precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff are vital to ecosystems and human activities. Predicting changes in the space-time characteristics of these water cycle processes has been a longstanding challenge in climate modeling. Different modeling approaches have been developed to allow high resolution to be achieved using available computing resources. Although high resolution is necessary to better resolve regional forcing and processes, improvements in simulating water cycle response are difficult to demonstrate and climate models have so far shown irreducible sensitivity to model resolution, dynamical framework, and physics parameterizations that confounds reliable predictions of regional climate change. Additionally, regional climate responds to both regional and global forcing but predicting changes in regional and global forcing such as related to land use/land cover and aerosol requires improved understanding and modeling of the dynamics of human-earth system interactions. Furthermore, regional response and regional forcing may be related through complex interactions that are dependent on the regional climate regimes, making decisions on regional mitigation and adaptation more challenging. Examples of the aforementioned challenges from on-going research and possible future directions will be discussed.

  14. Relationships between energy consumption and climate change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIANHuaisui; YUANShunquan; SUNJiulin; LIZehui

    2004-01-01

    Energy consumption has an inevitable connection with economic level and climate. Based on selected data covering annual total energy consumption and its composition and that of all kinds of energy in 1953-1999, the annual residential energy consumption and the coal and electricity consumption in 1980-1999 in China, the acreage of crops under cultivation suffered from drought and flood annually and gross domestic product (GDP) in 1953-1999 in the whole country, and mean daily temperature data from 29 provincial meteorological stations in the whole country from 1970 to 1999, this paper divides energy consumption into socio-economic energy consumption and climatic energy consumption in the way of multinomial. Itchanges between the climate energy consumption andalso goes further into the relations and their changes between the climate energy consumptionenergy consumption and the economic level inand climate factor and between the socio-economic energy between the climate energy level in China with the method of statistical analysis. At present, there are obvious transitions in the changing relationships of the energy consumption to economy and climate, which comprises the transition of economic system from resource-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry and the transition of climatic driving factors of the energy consumption from driven by the disasters of drought and flood to driven by temperature.

  15. The effect of financial constraints on energy-climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, we discuss the implications of financing constraints for future energy and climate scenarios. Aspirations to improve energy access and electrification rates in developing countries, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions, can be seriously hindered by the availability of low-cost capital for the necessary investments. We first provide a brief description of the theoretical foundations for financing constraints in the energy sector. Then, using a broad range of alternate assumptions we introduce capital supply curves to an energy system model for Sub-Saharan Africa, with a specific focus on the power sector. Our results portray the effect of capital cost on technology selection in electricity generation, specifically how limited capital supply decreases investments to capital-intensive zero-emission technologies. As a direct consequence, the emission price required to meet given emission targets is considerably increased when compared to case that disregards the capital constraints. Finally, we discuss possible policy instruments for resolving the constraints. - Highlights: • Climate and electrification targets increase the capital required for investments. • Required low-cost capital might not be available in developing countries. • Paper presents capital-constrained scenarios on electricity generation in Africa. • The cost of capital affects technology choice and emission levels considerably. • Climate policy effectiveness is dependent on the availability of low-cost capital

  16. CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Pt. 1. Model description and performance for present climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petoukhov, V.; Ganopolski, A.; Brovkin, V.; Claussen, M.; Eliseev, A.; Kubatzki, C.; Rahmstorf, S.

    1998-02-01

    A 2.5-dimensional climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 and its performance for present climate conditions are presented. The model consists of modules describing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface processes, terrestrial vegetation cover, and global carbon cycle. The modules interact (on-line) through the fluxes of momentum, energy, water and carbon. The model has a coarse spatial resolution, allowing nevertheless to capture the major features of the Earth`s geography. The model describes temporal variability of the system on seasonal and longer time scales. Due to the fact that the model does not employ any type of flux adjustment and has fast turnaround time, it can be used for study of climates significantly different from the present one and allows to perform long-term (multimillennia) simulations. The constraints for coupling the atmosphere and ocean without flux adjustment are discussed. The results of a model validation against present climate data show that the model successfully describes the seasonal variability of a large set of characteristics of the climate system, including radiative balance, temperature, precipitation, ocean circulation and cryosphere. (orig.) 62 refs.

  17. Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining different energy sources together, their intermittent feature is smoothed, resulting to lower time variability of the produced power and to lower storage capacity required for balancing. In this study, we consider solar, wind and hydro energy sources in a 100% renewable Europe using a set of 12 regions following two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine wind and solar irradiance data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Vautard et al., 2014), temperature data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) and runoff from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC, 1999) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 30 years. The use of this set of 12 regions across Europe allows integrating knowledge about time and space variability for each different energy sources. We then assess the optimal share of each energy sources, aiming to decrease the time variability of the regional energy balance at different time scales as well as the energy storage required for balancing within each region. We also evaluate how energy transport among regions contributes for smoothing out both the energy balance and the storage requirement. The strengths of this study are i) to handle with run-of-the-river hydro power in addition to wind and solar energy sources and ii) to carry out this analysis

  18. Ionospheric climate and weather modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simulations of the ionospheric model of Schunk et al. (1986) have been used for climatology and weather modeling. Steady state empirical models were used in the climatology model to provide plasma convection and particle precipitation patterns in the northern high-latitude region. The climatology model also depicts the ionospheric electron density and ion and electron temperatures for solar maximum, winter solstice, and strong geomagnetic activity conditions. The weather model describes the variations of ionospheric features during the solar cycle, seasonal changes, and geomagnetic activity. Prospects for future modeling are considered. 23 references

  19. Modeling Water, Climate, Agriculture, and the Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Winston; Yang, Yi-chen; Savitsky, Andre; Alford, Donald; Brown, Casey; Wescoat, James; Debowicz, Dario; Robinson, Sherman

    2013-01-01

    Describes two models used in the integrated modeling framework designed to study water, climate, agriculture and the economy in Pakistan's Indus Basin: (1) the Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR-1012), a hydro-economic optimization model that takes a variety of inputs (such as agronomic information, irrigation system data, and water inflows) to generate the optimal crop production across the provinces (subject to a variety of physical and political constraints) for every month of the year; and (...

  20. The new energy crisis : Climate, Economics and Geopolitics

    OpenAIRE

    Chevalier, Jean-Marie

    2009-01-01

    Global warming reveals that the current evolution of the world consumption is on an unsustainable path. Humankind's insatiable appetite for energy has sparked a new crisis. In a world where climate change has become a proven reality, there lies a deep uncertainty about the physical, economic and social impacts of this phenomenon. The New Energy Crisis examines the impact of climate change issues into energy economics and geopolitics. Climate is a public resource that needs to be universally m...

  1. Exploring elementary students’ understanding of energy and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin BOYLAN

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available As environmental changes become a significant societal issue, elementary science curriculaneed to develop students’ understanding about the key concepts of energy and climate change.For teachers, developing quality learning experiences involves establishing what theirstudents’ prior understanding about energy and climate change are. A survey was developed toexplore what elementary students know and understand about renewable and non-renewablesources of energy and their relationship to climate change issues. The findings from thissurvey are reported in this paper.

  2. Pending the adoption of an international climate agreement An overview of the energy-climate regime

    OpenAIRE

    Selosse, Sandrine; Maïzi, Nadia

    2015-01-01

    After a large awareness and decades of negotiations, a historic climate agreement is waiting to be adopted by all 195 parties at the UNFCCC, in December during the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP 21), in order to provide an answer to the climate issue. We analyze a combination of scenarios to discuss the energy-climate regime inherited from the past negotiations and what can be expected for the future decarbonated system.

  3. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  4. Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

  5. Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J., Jr.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

  6. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  7. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V. [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA (United States); Diaz, Henry F. [NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Nino events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region. (orig.)

  8. A Simple Climate Model Program for High School Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommenget, D.

    2012-04-01

    The future climate change projections of the IPCC AR4 are based on GCM simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern, with an arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land sea contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the IPCC predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change are very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex GCM simulations and they are not accessible for ordinary people. In this study presented here we will introduce a very simple gridded globally resolved energy balance model based on strongly simplified physical processes, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the 1-dimensional energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex GCMs. It runs on standard PC computers computing globally resolved climate simulation with 2yrs per second or 100,000yrs per day. The program can compute typical global warming scenarios in a few minutes on a standard PC. The computer code is only 730 line long with very simple formulations that high school students should be able to understand. The simple model's climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern is within the uncertainties of the IPCC AR4 models simulations. It is capable of simulating the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land sea contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC AR4 models in amplitude and structure. The program can be used to do sensitivity studies in which students can change something (e.g. reduce the solar radiation, take away the clouds or make snow black) and see how it effects the climate or the climate response to changes in greenhouse gases. This program is available for every one and could be the basis for high school education. Partners for a high school project are wanted!

  9. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Building upon on the smoothness of the response of an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM to changes of four adjustable parameters, Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate the AGCM. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g., how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  10. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM around four adjustable parameters. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g. how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  11. Modelling interactions of carbon dioxide, forests, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising and forests and climate is changing exclamation point This combination of fact and premise may be evaluated at a range of temporal and spatial scales with the aid of computer simulators describing the interrelationships between forest vegetation, litter and soil characteristics, and appropriate meteorological variables. Some insights on the effects of climate on the transfers of carbon and the converse effect of carbon transfer on climate are discussed as a basis for assessing the significance of feedbacks between vegetation and climate under conditions of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Three main classes of forest models are reviewed. These are physiologically-based models, forest succession simulators based on the JABOWA model, and ecosystem-carbon budget models that use compartment transfer rates with empirically estimated coefficients. Some regression modeling approaches are also outlined. Energy budget models applied to forests and grasslands are also reviewed. This review presents examples of forest models; a comprehensive discussion of all available models is not undertaken

  12. Complex Evaluation Model of Corporate Energy Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ágnes Kádár Horváth

    2014-01-01

    With the ever increasing energy problems at the doorstep alongside with political, economic, social and environmental challenges, conscious energy management has become of increasing importance in corporate resource management. Rising energy costs, stricter environmental and climate regulations as well as considerable changes in the energy market require companies to rationalise their energy consumption and cut energy costs. This study presents a complex evaluation model of corporate energy m...

  13. Mapping model agreement on future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M.; Knutti, Reto

    2011-12-01

    Climate change projections are often based on simulations from multiple global climate models and are presented as maps with some form of stippling or measure of robustness to indicate where different models agree on the projected anthropogenically forced changes. The criteria used to determine model agreement, however, often ignore the presence of natural internal variability. We demonstrate that this leads to misleading presentations of the degree of model consensus on the sign and magnitude of the change if the ratio of the signal from the externally forced change to internal variability is low. We present a simple alternative method of depicting multimodel projections which clearly separates lack of climate change signal from lack of model agreement by assessing the degree of consensus on the significance of the change as well as the sign of the change. Our results demonstrate that the common interpretation of lack of model agreement in precipitation projections is largely an artifact of the large noise from climate variability masking the signal, an issue exacerbated by performing analyses at the grid point scale. We argue that separating more clearly the case of lack of agreement from the case of lack of signal will add valuable information for stake-holders' decision making, since adaptation measures required in the two cases are potentially very different.

  14. Energy for climate in Europe. An assessment of energy policies with climate-relevance. The LinkS Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Audun; Knudsen, Joergen K.; Jacobsen, Gerd B.

    2011-07-01

    The LinkS project aims at providing a better linkage between perspectives and projections for global climate policy development and regional energy systems, by linking relevant modelling tools. The present report provides a specific focus on energy policy measures within the EY with climate relevance. The EU has in recent years aimed at reinforcing the linkage between the climate and energy policies, both at strategic and operational levels. The EU has pledged itself to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 8 percent by 2008-12 as compared to the 1990 level, and by 20 percent by 2020 as compared to the as compared to the 2005 level. The EU-27 reduced it GHG emissions with 11,3 percent in 1990-2008. The 2020-target, however, will require stronger efforts and energy is a key sector: The EU has decided that 20 percent of the energy must be renewable, and that the energy usage in 2020 is to be 20 per sent more efficient than in 2005. A number of policy strategies, measures and legislation are formulated to fulfil these targets. In order to highlight the potential of these measures, this report specifically addresses the drivers and limitations given the existing decision-making structures in the EU. The methodology employed is mainly qualitative, based on document analysis and a review of secondary literature. Climate-change mitigation is in principle based on supra-national decision-making, but unanimity among all Eu Member States is still required in critical issues related to the energy sector. In addition, the national follow-up of the targets constitutes a particular challenge. This is here illustrated by the cases of Denmark and Norway. Energy policy is also substantially characterised by several conflicting interests between the Member States, resulting in diverging policy priorities. It is, therefore, an open question whether the EU will succeed in fulfilling its 20/20/20 percent targets by 2020, and will be the actual role of energy within the climate

  15. The Community Climate System Model, Version 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Gent, Peter R.

    2004-10-01

    The Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM2) is briefly described. A 1000-yr control simulation of the present day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. Minor modifications were made at year 350, which included all five components using the same physical constants. There are very small trends in the upper-ocean, sea ice, atmosphere, and land fields after year 150 of the control simulation. The deep ocean has small but significant trends; however, these are not large enough that the control simulation could not be continued much further. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM2 is 2.2 K, which is slightly larger than the Climate System Model, version 1 (CSM1) value of 2.0 K.Several aspects of the control simulation's mean climate and interannual variability are described, and good and bad properties of the control simulation are documented. In particular, several aspects of the simulation, especially in the Arctic region, are much improved over those obtained in CSM1. Other aspects, such as the tropical Pacific region simulation, have not been improved much compared to those in CSM1. Priorities for further model development are discussed in the conclusions section.HR ALIGN="center" WIDTH="30%">

  16. Linkages between climate change, water and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an overview of projected changes in various climate properties, water supply and extreme weather events under different climate change scenarios. An assessment of impacts of these changes on nuclear energy is provided, highlighting the special characteristics of the industry and the importance of making nuclear facilities 'climate and weather proof' with a view to the projected changes in climatic and weather conditions. (author)

  17. Energy Balance, Climate, and Life - Work of M. Budyko

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahalan, Robert F.

    2004-01-01

    This talk will review the work of Mikhail I. Budyko, author of "Climate and Life" and many other works, who died recently at age 81, in St Petersburg, Russia. He directed the Division for Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute. We will explore Budyko's work in clarifying the role of energy balance in determining planetary climate, and the role of climate in regulating Earth s biosphere.

  18. Utilizing Cloud Computing to Improve Climate Modeling and Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Yang, C.; Liu, K.; Sun, M.; XIA, J.; Huang, Q.

    2013-12-01

    Climate studies have become increasingly important due to the global climate change, one of the biggest challenges for the human in the 21st century. Climate data, not only observations data collected from various sensors but also simulated data generated from diverse climate models, are essential for scientists to explore the potential climate change patterns and analyze the complex climate dynamics. Climate modeling and simulation, a critical methodology for simulating the past and predicting the future climate conditions, can produce huge amount of data that contains potentially valuable information for climate studies. However, using modeling method in climate studies poses at least two challenges for scientists. First, running climate models is a computing intensive process, which requires large amounts of computation resources. Second, running climate models is also a data intensive process generating Big geospatial Data (model output), which demands large storage for managing the data and large computing power to process and analyze these data. This presentation introduces a novel framework to tackle the two challenges by 1) running climate models in a cloud environment in an automated fashion, and 2) managing and parallel processing Big model output Data by leveraging cloud computing technologies. A prototype system is developed based on the framework using ModelE as the climate model. Experiment results show that this framework can improve climate modeling in the research cycle by accelerating big data generation (model simulation), big data management (storage and processing) and on demand big data analytics.

  19. Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

  20. Plugging the Energy Efficiency Gap with Climate Finance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The role of International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and the Green Climate Fund to realise the potential of energy efficiency in developing countries. This report examines the current role of climate finance in funding EE projects and the potential to channel funds to relevant EE projects in developing countries under the new Green Climate Fund (GCF). The objectives of the report are to examine: 1) the share of climate finance currently being channelled to energy efficiency measures, and 2) how the design of climate finance can better facilitate energy efficiency projects. Improving energy efficiency (EE) can deliver a range of benefits such as improved air quality, enhanced economic competitiveness and, at the national scale, a higher degree of energy security. Significant improvements in energy efficiency in developing countries could provide greater opportunity for economic growth while also providing broader access to energy and related services even from limited energy resources. However, several barriers limit the scaling-up of funding of EE projects in developing countries (some are common also to developed countries). The report focuses primarily on public climate finance flows from 'north' to 'south', probing the current use of funds from multi-lateral development banks (MDBs), bi-lateral financial institutions (BFIs) and carbon markets for energy efficiency projects and the design of the future climate financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund to encourage energy efficiency improvements in developing countries.

  1. Examine Climate Models by Using Infrared Spectrum

    OpenAIRE

    Yi Huang; Ramaswamy, V.

    2008-01-01

    We examine global climate models by comparing the satellite-observed high resolution global infrared spectra with the model-simulated counterpart. Because the topof-the-atmosphere outgoing Earth thermal emission at different frequencies is sensitive to different geophysical variables (temperature, water vapor and other greenhouse gas concentrations, clouds, etc.) at various levels, a comparison of observed and simulated spectra is as challenging as examining a variety of model-simulated geoph...

  2. Renewable energy technologies and climate change policies in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    suggests that in the absence of stringent climate change policies, India is likely to go along the conventional fossil fuel path. The same can be true of many other developing countries. The policies in specific countries, especially developing nations with no binding carbon mitigation commitments, will be crucial for generating initial technology 'push', before the market will be ready to provide the demand 'pull' in the long run. This paper provides a review of the renewable energy experience in India in terms of positive lessons and identified barriers. It looks at various policy options for India and develops, using macro-modelling tools, scenarios of the likely penetration of RETs under different climate change mitigation policy regimes. (author)

  3. Political motives in climate and energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruvoll, Annegrete; Dalen, Hanne Marit; Larsen, Bodil M.

    2012-07-01

    Standard economic theory provides clear guidance on the design of cost-efficient policy in the presence of imperfect markets and externalities. However, observed policies reveal extensive discrepancies between principles and practise. Based on interviews with core politicians from the Norwegian parliament, we investigate causes for the lack of cost efficiency in climate and energy policy. We find that politicians agree with the notion of cost efficiency in principle, but rather than ascribing efficient instruments directed at specific policy goals, they include concerns for industrial and regional development, income distribution and employment in the environmental policy design. Lacking insight in the functioning of economic instruments and perceptions of a non-binding budget constraint also violate the requirements for efficient policy decisions. The findings point to the role of economists and social scientists to communicate the functioning of complex instruments. Improved compensation procedures could help reduce the politicians' incentives to undermine efficiency in order to avoid unwanted distributional effects.(Author)

  4. Fuel choice, nuclear energy, climate and carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For the second time since the start of commercial nuclear electricity generation, an accident has the world wondering if uranium will be among the future fuel choices in electricity production. Unfortunate when one considers the low-carbon footprint of this energy option. An accident involving a nuclear power plant, or more appropriately the perceived risks associated with an accident at a nuclear power plant, is but one of the issues that makes the impact assessment process related to nuclear energy projects challenging. Other aspects, including the time scales associated with their siting, licensing, operation and decommissioning, also contribute to the challenge. Strategic environmental assessments for future fuel choices in electricity generation, particularly ones that consider the use of life cycle assessment information, would allow for the effective evaluation of the issues identified above. But more importantly from an impact assessment perspective, provide for a comparative assertion for public disclosure on the environmental impacts of fuel choice. This would provide the public and government decision makers with a more complete view of the role nuclear energy may be able to play in mitigating the climate and carbon impacts of increased electricity production, and place issues of cost, complexity and scale in a more understandable context.

  5. Modeling interactions between land cover and climate in integrated assessment models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) link representations of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate in an internally consistent framework. These models are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate, energy, and other policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. Additionally, these models are used to develop future scenarios of emissions and land cover for use in climate models (e.g., RCPs and CMIP5). Land use is strongly influenced by assumptions about population, income, diet, ecosystem productivity change, and climate policy. Population, income, and diet determine the amount of food production needed in the future. Assumptions about future changes in crop yields due to agronomic developments influence the amount of land needed to produce food crops. Climate policy has implications for land when land-based mitigation options (e.g., afforestation and bioenergy) are considered. IAM models consider each of these factors in their computation of land use in the future. As each of these factors is uncertain in the future, IAM models use scenario analysis to explore the implications of each. For example, IAMs have been used to explore the effect of different mitigation policies on land cover. These models can quantify the trade-offs in terms of land cover, energy prices, food prices, and mitigation costs of each of these policies. Furthermore, IAMs are beginning to explore the effect of climate change on land productivity, and the implications that changes in productivity have on mitigation efforts. In this talk, we describe the implications for future land use and land cover of a variety of socioeconomic, technological, and policy drivers in several IAM models. Additionally, we will discuss the effects of future land cover on climate and the effects of climate on future land cover, as simulated

  6. A model approach to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Earth is warming up, with potentially disastrous consequences. Computer climate models based on physics are our best hope of predicting and managing climate change, as Adam Scaife, Chris Folland and John Mitchell explain. This month scientists from over 60 nations on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of their latest report on global warming. In the report the panel concludes that it is very likely that most of the 0.5 deg. C increase in global temperature over the last 50 years is due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. And the science suggests that much greater changes are in store: by 2100 anthropogenic global warming could be comparable to the warming of about 6 deg. C since the last ice age. The consequences of global warming could be catastrophic. As the Earth continues to heat up, the frequency of floods and droughts is likely to increase, water supplies and ecosystems will be placed under threat, agricultural practices will have to be changed and millions of people may be displaced as the sea level rises. The global economy could also be severely affected. The scientific consensus is that the observed warming of the Earth during the past half-century is mostly due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Predicting climate change depends on sophisticated computer models developed over the past 50 years. Climate models are based on the Navier-Stokes equations for fluid flow, which are solved numerically on a grid covering the globe. These models have been very successful in simulating the past climate, giving researchers confidence in their predictions. The most likely value for the global temperature increase by 2100 is in the range 1.4-5.8 deg. C, which could have catastrophic consequences. (U.K.)

  7. Climate change impacts on chosen activities from the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present work, results of a study carried out about the possible impact of climate change on the energy sector in the province Camaguey are shown. First of all, the main activities in companies, utilities, and farms related to the most significant energy consumption were chosen in order to model corresponding equivalent fuel consumption. Impacts were determined taking into account differences between present and future consumptions for each kind of energy. In developed countries, this kind of work is done using well-known empirical-statistical models, which usually require a lot of data at a nation-wide scale, but to attempt it in an undeveloped country demands the use of specific methodology, which in this case was non-existent and required us to create it. This resulted in a carefully posed question since we had to take into consideration that the spatial scale is only that of a province, and so it was necessary, above all, to study specific characteristics of provincial fuel consumption. We used the Magic-Scengen system and SRES scenarios, and outputs of general circulation models like HadCM2 to obtain values of chosen climatic variables for use in energy consumption regression models, previously developed for each kind of activity in the corresponding companies, firm, and facilities included in the present research. It made possible to estimate energy consumption in each activity at the selected time periods centered at 2020, 2050, and 2080. The study shows that impact could rise the consumption by 2,5% of the present energy level in this territory

  8. Evaluating five remote sensing based single-source surface energy balance models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in a humid subtropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Nishan; Shaw, Stephen B.; Quackenbush, Lindi J.; Im, Jungho; Niraula, Rewati

    2016-07-01

    In the last two decades, a number of single-source surface energy balance (SEB) models have been proposed for mapping evapotranspiration (ET); however, there is no clear guidance on which models are preferable under different conditions. In this paper, we tested five models-Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop)-to identify the single-source SEB models most appropriate for use in the humid southeastern United States. ET predictions from these models were compared with measured ET at four sites (marsh, grass, and citrus surfaces) for 149 cloud-free Landsat image acquisition days between 2000 and 2010. The overall model evaluation statistics showed that SEBS generally outperformed the other models in terms of estimating daily ET from different land covers (e.g., the root mean squared error (RMSE) was 0.74 mm day-1). SSEBop was consistently the worst performing model and overestimated ET at all sites (RMSE = 1.67 mm day-1), while the other models typically fell in between SSEBop and SEBS. However, for short grass conditions, SEBAL, METRIC, and S-SEBI appear to work much better than SEBS. Overall, our study suggests that SEBS may be the best SEB model in humid regions, although it may require modifications to work better over short vegetation.

  9. Climate change and energy policy in Chile: Up in smoke?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper provides an ex-post assessment of the climate and energy policy developments in Chile emerging from a neoliberal economic model, during the period 1971–2007. First, correlation and regression analyses were performed to analyse historical CO2 emissions as a product of demographic, economic and energy-wide drivers. Then I estimate indicators related to CO2 emissions, energy use and economic activity. In the light of empirical results, I identify policy instruments and structural issues. Finally, I present a comparative analysis of Chile and other Latin American countries. Statistical tests show that variability of CO2 emissions is explained mostly by GDP per capita (‘affluence’) than any other tested variable. Indicators show that the diversification and decarbonisation of the energy mix has been a major policy challenge. With two notable exceptions (hydro and natural gas), the CO2 intensity of the energy supply mix suggests no effective policies, while energy security crises triggered negative carbon effects and increased prices. No clear policies to promote energy efficiency can be identified until 2005. Explicit policy instruments to promote renewable energy are only recognised after 2004. The results strongly suggest that Chile lacked of policies to effectively decarbonise its energy–economy system. - Highlight: ► The first paper that quantitatively assesses key drivers of CO2 emissions in Chile. ► It examines energy and climate policy development during the period 1971–2007. ► GDP per capita (‘affluence’) is the main determinant of CO2 emissions. ► Diversification and decarbonisation of energy mix has been a major policy challenge. ► Policy approach under analysed period not suited for a low-carbon economy.

  10. "EARTH: The Operators' Manual" - a hybrid model (TV+online+in-person) to effectively communicate climate change science alongside sustainable energy solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines-stiles, G.; Alley, R. B.; Akuginow, E.

    2011-12-01

    Recent public opinion surveys have found that Americans underestimate the degree of agreement by climate scientists about global warming and climate change, and - despite growing evidence of ice sheet loss, ocean acidification, sea level rise and extreme weather events - believe less in warming trends in 2011 than they did earlier. The issue has become politicized and controversial. "EARTH: The Operators' Manual" is an informal science education project supported by NSF, the National Science Foundation. Its ambitious goal is to use a hybrid mix of broadcast programs appearing on public television and hosted by Penn State geoscientist, Richard Alley, together with on-site outreach events and online resources and tools, to present core climate science in engaging ways, and to combine that presentation of objective research with an overview of sustainable energy solutions. The project's content and communication strategies have been shaped in response to analyses of public opinion such as the SIX AMERICAS study and aim to address common "skeptic" arguments and share essential climate science. Social science research has also found that audiences seem more open to scientific information where the possibility of a positive response is also offered. The first hour-long PBS program aired nationally in April 2011, has since been re-broadcast, and is also available online. Two more programs will air in 2012, and the presentation at the Fall AGU Conference will preview segments from both programs. Five regionally-diverse science centers (in San Diego, Raleigh NC, St. Paul MN, Fort Worth TX and Portland OR) have hosted outreach events, with Richard Alley and other project participants, and will continue with additional activities through summer 2012. The project's website includes video clips, case studies of energy-saving initiatives world-wide and across the USA, plus an interactive "Energy Gauge" inviting users to assess their current Home, Travel, Food, and Goods and

  11. Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

    OpenAIRE

    Cowtan, Kevin; Hausfather, Zeke; Hawkins, Ed; Jacobs, Peter; Mann, Michael E.; Miller, Sonya K.; Byron A. Steinman; Stolpe, Martin B.; Way, Robert G.

    2015-01-01

    The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observation...

  12. Big Data and Data Models for Climate System Energetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fillmore, D. W.; Habermann, T.; Goedecke, W. B.

    2015-12-01

    Multi-decade satellite missions, such as the NASA CERES mission designed to place observational constraints on the distribution of reflected solar radiation and emitted thermal radiation, present a significant challenge both in the analysis of heterogeneous Big Data and in data continuity. The NASA CERES EBAF dataset is a part of a broader effort to increase the usability of satellite observational data for the climate modeling community. Issues of accessibility, consistency, and reproducibility are paramount. Here we describe the transformation of CERES measurements from source to high level data products intended for direct use by the climate community. At each stage we examine data storage and processing patterns, metadata and potential challenges in reproducibility. The spatial distribution of net energy uptake and transport in the climate system, and its evolution over interannual and decadal time scales, is fundamental to the development of Earth system models. The workflow begins with the CERES footprint radiance seen by a polar orbiter, to the conversion of radiance to radiometric fluxes based on scene identification from MODIS and VIIRS imagery, followed by diurnal interpolation through the use of geostationary satellite imagery and eventually to the creation of high level gridded data products, the ultimate being the Energy Balanced and Filled flux product for direct comparison to climate models. Based on this CERES case study we try to anticipate future questions the may arise in the context of these massive satellite data collections, and what new data models may facilitate future data analysis.

  13. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:24518587

  14. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens;

    - and river flow as well as land surface-atmosphere fluxes of water (evapotranspiration) and energy - significantly reduces precipitation bias compared to the regional climate model alone. For a six year simulation period (2004 – 2010) covering a 2500 km2 catchment substantial improvements in the......The complexity of precipitation processes makes it difficult for climate models to reliably simulate precipitation, particularly at sub-grid scales, where the important processes are associated with detailed land-atmosphere feedbacks like the vertical circulations driven by latent heat that affect...... convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...

  15. Modelling the wind climate of Ireland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, H.P.; Landberg, L.

    1997-01-01

    The wind climate of Ireland has been calculated using the Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model KAMM. The climatology is represented by 65 frequency classes of geostrophic wind that were selected as equiangular direction sectors and speed intervals with equal frequency in a sector. The results are...

  16. Building an advanced climate model: Program plan for the CHAMMP (Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics, and Model Physics) Climate Modeling Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-12-01

    The issue of global warming and related climatic changes from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has received prominent attention during the past few years. The Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics, and Model Physics (CHAMMP) Climate Modeling Program is designed to contribute directly to this rapid improvement. The goal of the CHAMMP Climate Modeling Program is to develop, verify, and apply a new generation of climate models within a coordinated framework that incorporates the best available scientific and numerical approaches to represent physical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes, that fully utilizes the hardware and software capabilities of new computer architectures, that probes the limits of climate predictability, and finally that can be used to address the challenging problem of understanding the greenhouse climate issue through the ability of the models to simulate time-dependent climatic changes over extended times and with regional resolution.

  17. Climate effects of bioenergy from forest residues in comparison to fossil energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The primary energy and climate impacts of bioenergy systems were analyzed. • Largest climate benefits when forest residues are collected for energy services. • Biomass to substitute coal provides greater climate change mitigation benefits. • Biomass decay rates and transportation have less influence on climate benefits. - Abstract: Forest residues can be left at the harvest site to gradually decompose, or can be collected for energy purposes. This study analyzes the primary energy and climate impacts of bioenergy systems where forest residues are collected and used for electricity, heat and transportation, compared to fossil-based energy systems where fossil fuels provide the same services while forest residues are left on site to decompose. Time profiles are elaborated of primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions from various energy applications fulfilled by bioenergy or fossil energy systems. Different biological decay functions are considered based on process-based modeling and inventory data across various climate zones. For all scenarios, the changes in cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) are calculated over a 300-year period, to evaluate the short- and long-term contributions of forest residue to climate change mitigation. A life cycle perspective along the full energy chains is used to evaluate the overall effectiveness of each system. The results show largest primary energy and climate benefits when forest residues are collected and used efficiently for energy services. Using biomass to substitute fossil coal provides greater climate change mitigation benefits than substituting oil or fossil gas. Some bioenergy substitutions result in positive CRF, i.e. increased global warming, during an initial period. This occurs for relatively inefficient bioenergy conversion pathways to substitute less carbon intensive fossil fuels, e.g. biomotor fuel used to replace diesel. More beneficial bioenergy substitutions, such as efficiently

  18. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  19. Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-11-01

    Design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of K-12 schools in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into construction or renovation plans, schools can reduce energy consumption and costs.

  20. Climate crisis: energy solutions for BC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a collection of essays which, collectively, detail the current situation of energy and climate policy in British Columbia, taking account of the full consequences of addiction to fossil fuels and the automobile. The report examines the forces at work responsible for the current situation, namely population growth, urban sprawl, low density communities in the Lower Fraser Valley, southern Vancouver Island and other parts of the province. The growing pressure on the development of agricultural land, congestion on highways and in cities, the increase in air pollution, land alienation, longer commutes to and from work, increased demand for electricity and natural gas, construction of new power plants, pipelines and gas processing facilities are just further examples of the same trend, culminating in dramatic growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The report proposes a range of conservation and renewable options in the areas of urban land use and transportation, commercial and industrial energy reduction and oil and gas production, and provides some ideas of how these recommendations could be realized by businesses, institutions and individuals. It insists on stressing that while the challenges are formidable, they could be achieved through a combination of regulation, public investment, market mechanisms and cultural change. 163 end-notes, tabs

  1. Climate crisis: energy solutions for BC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foley, D. [ed.

    2000-07-01

    This report is a collection of essays which, collectively, detail the current situation of energy and climate policy in British Columbia, taking account of the full consequences of addiction to fossil fuels and the automobile. The report examines the forces at work responsible for the current situation, namely population growth, urban sprawl, low density communities in the Lower Fraser Valley, southern Vancouver Island and other parts of the province. The growing pressure on the development of agricultural land, congestion on highways and in cities, the increase in air pollution, land alienation, longer commutes to and from work, increased demand for electricity and natural gas, construction of new power plants, pipelines and gas processing facilities are just further examples of the same trend, culminating in dramatic growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The report proposes a range of conservation and renewable options in the areas of urban land use and transportation, commercial and industrial energy reduction and oil and gas production, and provides some ideas of how these recommendations could be realized by businesses, institutions and individuals. It insists on stressing that while the challenges are formidable, they could be achieved through a combination of regulation, public investment, market mechanisms and cultural change. 163 end-notes, tabs.

  2. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations. The traditional approach to climate model evaluation, which compares a single parameter at a time, identifies symptomatic model biases and errors but fails to diagnose the model problems. The model diagnosis process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. To address these challenges, we are developing a parallel, distributed web-service system that enables the physics-based multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks (i.e., Flask, Gunicorn, and Tornado). The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation and (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, and (4) the calculation of difference between two variables. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use

  3. ESCIMO.spread – a spreadsheet-based point snow surface energy balance model to calculate hourly snow water equivalent and melt rates for historical and changing climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Marke

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the spreadsheet-based point energy balance model ESCIMO.spread which simulates the energy and mass balance as well as melt rates of a snow surface. The model makes use of hourly recordings of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, global and longwave radiation. The effect of potential climate change on the seasonal evolution of the snow cover can be estimated by modifying the time series of observed temperature and precipitation by means of adjustable parameters. Model output is graphically visualized in hourly and daily diagrams. The results compare well with weekly measured snow water equivalent (SWE. The model is easily portable and adjustable, and runs particularly fast: hourly calculation of a one winter season is instantaneous on a standard computer. ESICMO.spread can be obtained from the authors on request (contact: ulrich.strasser@uni-graz.at.

  4. ESCIMO.spread – a spreadsheet-based point snow surface energy balance model to calculate hourly snow water equivalent and melt rates for historical and changing climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Marke

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the spreadsheet-based point energy balance model ESCIMO.spread which simulates the energy and mass balance as well as melt rates at the snow surface. The model makes use of hourly recordings of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and incoming global and longwave radiation. The effect of potential climate change on the seasonal evolution of the snow cover can be estimated by modifying the time series of observed temperature and precipitation by means of adjustable parameters. Model output is graphically visualized in hourly and daily diagrams. The results compare well with weekly measured snow water equivalent (SWE. The model is easily portable and adjustable, and runs particularly fast: an hourly calculation of a one winter season is instantaneous on a standard computer. ESCIMO.spread can be obtained from the authors on request.

  5. Advance in Application of Regional Climate Models in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Wei; YAN Minhua; CHEN Panqin; XU Helan

    2008-01-01

    Regional climate models have become the powerful tools for simulating regional climate and its changeprocess and have been widely used in China. Using regional climate models, some research results have been obtainedon the following aspects: 1) the numerical simulation of East Asian monsoon climate, including exceptional monsoonprecipitation, summer precipitation distribution, East Asian circulation, multi-year climate average condition, summerrain belt and so on; 2) the simulation of arid climate of the western China, including thermal effect of the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau, the plateau precipitation in the Qilian Mountains; and the impacts of greenhouse effects (CO2 dou-bling) upon climate in the western China; and 3) the simulation of the climate effect of underlying surface changes, in-cluding the effect of soil on climate formation, the influence of terrain on precipitation, the effect of regional soil deg-radation on regional climate, the effect of various underlying surfaces on regional climate, the effect of land-sea con-trast on the climate formulation, the influence of snow cover over the plateau regions on the regional climate, the effectof vegetation changes on the regional climate, etc. In the process of application of regional climate models, the prefer-ences of the models are improved so that better simulation results are gotten. At last, some suggestions are made aboutthe application of regional climate models in regional climate research in the future.

  6. Energy taxes, resource taxes and quantity rationing for climate protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisenack, Klaus [Oldenburg Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economics; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Kalkuhl, Matthias [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Economic sectors react strategically to climate policy, aiming at a re-distribution of rents. Established analysis suggests a Pigouvian emission tax as efficient instrument, but also recommends factor input or output taxes under specific conditions. However, existing studies leave it open whether output taxes, input taxes or input rationing perform better, and at best only touch their distributional consequences. When emissions correspond to extracted ressources, it is questionable whether taxes are effective at all. We determine the effectiveness, efficiency and functional income distribution for these instruments in the energy and resource sector, based on a game theoretic growth model with explicit factor markets and policy instruments. Market equilibrium depends on a government that acts as a Stackelberg leader with a climate protection goal. We find that resource taxes and cumulative resource quantity rationing achieve this objective efficiently. Energy taxation is only second best. Mitigation generates a substantial ''climate rent'' in the resource sector that can be converted to transfer incomes by taxes. (orig.)

  7. A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

    2014-01-01

    We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

  8. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    OpenAIRE

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; S. Folwell; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; J. Heinke; F. Ludwig

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climat...

  9. Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate policy and renewable energy policy instruments. It shows that, even where CO2 emissions are duly priced, specific incentives for supporting the early deployment of renewable energy technologies are justified by the steep learning curves of nascent technologies. This early investment reduces costs in the longer term and makes renewable energy affordable when it needs to be deployed on a very large scale to fully contribute to climate change mitigation and energy security. The paper also reveals other noteworthy interaction effects of climate policy and renewable policy instruments on the wholesale electricity prices in deregulated markets, which open new areas for future research.

  10. Bringing solutions to big challenges. Energy - climate - technology (ECT)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The conference contains 45 presentations within the sections integrated policy and strategic perspectives on energy, climate change and technology, energy efficiency with prospects and measures, climate change and challenges for offshore energy and technology, possibilities for technology utilization, nuclear technology developments including some papers on thorium utilization, ethics of energy resource use and climate change, challenges and possibilities for the Western Norway and sustainability and security in an ECT-context. Some economic aspects are discussed as well. 16 of the 45 papers have been indexed for the database (tk)

  11. Crop based climate regimes for energy saving in greenhouse cultivation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koerner, O.

    2003-06-16

    Sustainability is one of the major aims in greenhouse horticulture. According to agreements between the Dutch grower association and the government, energy consumption and the use of chemical biocides have to be reduced. More advanced greenhouse technique is being developed to reach the target to decrease the energy efficiency-index by 65% between 1980 and 2010. However, this could also be achieved with existing technology by using more advanced climate regimes. The present thesis aimed at that, through designing and analysing climate regimes while employing existing climate control possibilities. Theoretical temperature and humidity regimes were designed to decrease energy consumption and a photosynthesis maximisation procedure was implemented to maximise growth. The basis for a crop gross photosynthesis model for control purposes was created. Crop photosynthesis models were evaluated at conditions expected to occur with more sustainable climate regimes. It was shown with experimental evidence that theoretical assumptions on the temperature - CO2 effects in a crop that are based on theoretically models scaling up leaf photosynthesis to the crop level are valid and that simplified existing models could be applied up to 28C. With higher temperatures new designs are needed and this can probably be achieved with an improved stomata-resistance model. The well known temperature integration principle was modified with two nested time-frames (24-hour and six days) and a temperature dose-response function. In a year round tomato cultivation, energy consumption was predicted to decrease with up to 9 % compared to regular temperature integration. The potential for energy saving with temperature integration is limited by humidity control when as usual fixed set points are maintained, because it counteracts temperature integration. Vents open at lower temperatures and heating is switched on at higher temperatures than required for optimal effects of temperature integration. A

  12. OpenClimateGIS - A Web Service Providing Climate Model Data in Commonly Used Geospatial Formats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, T. A.; Koziol, B. W.; Rood, R. B.

    2011-12-01

    The goal of the OpenClimateGIS project is to make climate model datasets readily available in commonly used, modern geospatial formats used by GIS software, browser-based mapping tools, and virtual globes.The climate modeling community typically stores climate data in multidimensional gridded formats capable of efficiently storing large volumes of data (such as netCDF, grib) while the geospatial community typically uses flexible vector and raster formats that are capable of storing small volumes of data (relative to the multidimensional gridded formats). OpenClimateGIS seeks to address this difference in data formats by clipping climate data to user-specified vector geometries (i.e. areas of interest) and translating the gridded data on-the-fly into multiple vector formats. The OpenClimateGIS system does not store climate data archives locally, but rather works in conjunction with external climate archives that expose climate data via the OPeNDAP protocol. OpenClimateGIS provides a RESTful API web service for accessing climate data resources via HTTP, allowing a wide range of applications to access the climate data.The OpenClimateGIS system has been developed using open source development practices and the source code is publicly available. The project integrates libraries from several other open source projects (including Django, PostGIS, numpy, Shapely, and netcdf4-python).OpenClimateGIS development is supported by a grant from NOAA's Climate Program Office.

  13. Constraining climate model parameters from observed 20th century changes

    OpenAIRE

    Forest, Chris E.; Stone, Peter H; Sokolov, Andrei P.

    2008-01-01

    We present revised probability density functions for climate model parameters (effective climate sensitivity, the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the net aerosol forcing) that are based on climate change observations from the 20th century. First, we compare observed changes in surface, upper-air, and deep-ocean temperature changes against simulations of 20th century climate in which the climate model parameters were systematically varied. The estimated 90% range of effecti...

  14. A Holographic Energy Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, P; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2012-01-01

    We suggest a holographic energy model in which the energy coming from spatial curvature, matter and radiation can be obtained by using the particle horizon for the infrared cut-off. We show the consistency between the holographic dark-energy model and the holographic energy model proposed in this paper. Then, we give a holographic description of the universe.

  15. Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state

  16. LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

    2011-01-01

    This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

  17. Comparison of two soya bean simulation models under climate change : II Application of climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.

    2002-01-01

    The effects of climate change (for 2050 compared to ambient climate) and change in climatic variability on soya bean growth and production at 3 sites in the EU have been calculated. These calculations have been done with both a simple growth model, SOYBEANW, and a comprehensive model, CROPGRO. Compa

  18. Uncertain climate change in an intergenerational planning model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A three-generation planning model incorporating uncertain climate change is developed. Each generation features a production activity based on capital and an exhaustible resource. An irreversible climate change may occur in period two or three, reducing the productivity for this and the remaining generation. The model is solved by stochastic dynamic programming. If the climate impact and climate change probability is constant, the optimal period one (and two) resource extraction is larger than for the reference case of climate stability. If, however, climate impact and climate change probability increases with increased aggregate resource use, this result is reversed. 5 tabs., 1 appendix, 22 refs

  19. Climate Modeling with a Linux Cluster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renold, M.; Beyerle, U.; Raible, C. C.; Knutti, R.; Stocker, T. F.; Craig, T.

    2004-08-01

    Until recently, computationally intensive calculations in many scientific disciplines have been limited to institutions which have access to supercomputing centers. Today, the computing power of PC processors permits the assembly of inexpensive PC clusters that nearly approach the power of supercomputers. Moreover, the combination of inexpensive network cards and Open Source software provides an easy linking of standard computer equipment to enlarge such clusters. Universities and other institutions have taken this opportunity and built their own mini-supercomputers on site. Computing power is a particular issue for the climate modeling and impacts community. The purpose of this article is to make available a Linux cluster version of the Community Climate System Model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR; http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/csm).

  20. Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Neil R. [The Open University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Milton Keynes (United Kingdom); Cameron, David [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Rougier, Jonathan [University of Bristol, Department of Mathematics, Bristol (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwater-forcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters. (orig.)

  1. Grenelle de l'Environnement: the climate-energy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having recalled the main principles of the French 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' environmental policy (integration of cost for climate and biodiversity in large project choices) and discussed the articulation with international and European challenges (international negotiations, EU ETS, adjustment taxes), this report presents and discusses the different commitments, objectives, demands and adopted measures in different sectors: buildings, transports, energy management, development of renewable energies, climate-energy contribution, agriculture, regions and urban planning

  2. ESCAPE. Energy Security and ClimAte Policy Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and energy supply security policy are currently not integrated in most countries, despite possible synergies. The ESCAPE approach suggests that linking climate change policy with security of energy supply could improve climate change policy at both a national and international level. The report explores the interaction between policies of energy security and climate change and the options of inclusion of energy security issues into national and international post-2012 climate negotiations. It emphasises the importance of the US in this regard and takes a close look at US energy policy documents. It appears that current US energy policy is not directed towards reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuel, even though the government has a strong preference for this. This study shows that measures to reduce import dependency are mostly synergetic with climate policy and gives some options that can be implemented. On an international level, linkages of energy security into post-2012 climate policy may be possible in sectoral bottom-up approaches or technology frameworks. As well, inclusion of a security of supply criterion in international emission trading instruments may provide potential benefits

  3. Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

    OpenAIRE

    Labriet, Maryse; Joshi, Santosh R.; Vielle, Marc; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; KANUDIA, Amit; Loulou, Richard; BABONNEAU, Frédéric

    2013-01-01

    The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium ...

  4. Energy transition - economic challenge, climate challenge, industrial challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document highlights and discusses the different economic, climate and industrial challenges, identifies and discusses the different objectives and main results for a successful energy transition respectively in its relationships with the energy mix (the result is to divide emissions by a factor 4), with governance (the result should be a balanced distribution of energy governance), with energy consumption

  5. Climate change policymaking: Three explanatory models

    OpenAIRE

    Bang, Guri

    2000-01-01

    This paper gives an outline of three explanatory approaches to policymaking processes that allow the development of a rich set of non-trivial, probable assumptions. These assumptions provide a foundation for understanding climate policymaking behavior. First, the Unitary Rational Actor model provides a set of assumptions about the state’s interest in calculating costs and benefits as a basis for decision-making. By avoiding the inclusion of sub-actors in the analysis, it is possible to analyz...

  6. Modelling Complexity: the case of Climate Science

    OpenAIRE

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2011-01-01

    We briefly review some of the scientific challenges and epistemological issues related to climate science. We discuss the formulation and testing of theories and numerical models, which, given the presence of unavoidable uncertainties in observational data, the non-repeatability of world-experiments, and the fact that relevant processes occur in a large variety of spatial and temporal scales, require a rather different approach than in other scientific contexts. A brief discussion of the intr...

  7. Permafrost, climate, and change: predictive modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, O.

    2003-04-01

    Predicted by GCMs enhanced warming of the Arctic will lead to discernible impacts on permafrost and northern environment. Mathematical models of different complexity forced by scenarios of climate change may be used to predict such changes. Permafrost models that are currently in use may be divided into four groups: index-based models (e.g. frost index model, N-factor model); models of intermediate complexity based on equilibrium simplified solution of the Stephan problem ("Koudriavtcev's" model and its modifications), and full-scale comprehensive dynamical models. New approach of stochastic modelling came into existence recently and has good prospects for the future. Important task is to compare the ability of the models that are different in complexity, concept, and input data requirements to capture the major impacts of changing climate on permafrost. A progressive increase in the depth of seasonal thawing (often referred to as the active-layer thickness, ALT) could be a relatively short-term reaction to climatic warming. At regional and local scales, it may produce substantial effects on vegetation, soil hydrology and runoff, as the water storage capacity of near-surface permafrost will be changed. Growing public concerns are associated with the impacts that warming of permafrost may have on engineered infrastructure built upon it. At the global scale, increase of ALT could facilitate further climatic change if more greenhouse gases are released when the upper layer of the permafrost thaws. Since dynamic permafrost models require complete set of forcing data that is not readily available on the circumpolar scale, they could be used most effectively in regional studies, while models of intermediate complexity are currently best tools for the circumpolar assessments. Set of five transient scenarios of climate change for the period 1980 - 2100 has been constructed using outputs from GFDL, NCAR, CCC, HadCM, and ECHAM-4 models. These GCMs were selected in the course

  8. Energy security and climate change : a Canadian primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book addresses the reality of climate change and peak oil, and emphasizes the need to make the transition from carbon energies to renewable energies. The book is a compilation of 18 leading authorities' work on energy use and its impact on the environment. Various solutions and sustainable alternatives to carbon energy are proposed. The book links fossil fuels, including oil sands, as a major cause of climate change. The book also addresses other topical issues, such as the nuclear revival, the U.S. energy act and electricity, carbon trading, and energy security in Canada. The authors emphasize the need to act in a proactive way to ensure a sustainable future. refs.

  9. Economic impact of climate change : simulations with a regionalized climate-economy model

    OpenAIRE

    Deke, Oliver; Hooss, Kurt Georg; Kasten, Christiane; Klepper, Gernot; Springer, Katrin

    2001-01-01

    Climate change affects the physical and biological system in many regions of the world. The extent to which human systems will suffer economically from climate change depends on the adaptive capabilities within a region as well as across regions. We use an economic General-Equilibrium model and an Ocean-Atmosphere model in a regionally and sectorally disaggregated framework to analyze adaptation to climate change in different regions of the world. It turns out that vulnerability to climate im...

  10. Possible (water sensitive) mitigation strategies for the urban climate in a regional climate modelling context

    OpenAIRE

    Demuzere, Matthias; Coutts, Andrew; Van Lipzig, Nicole

    2012-01-01

    Urban climate models provide a useful tool for assessing the impacts of urban land surface modification on urban climates. It provides a mechanism for trialling different scenarios for urban heat island mitigation. Only recently, urban land surfaces have been included in global and regional climate models. Often they represent a trade-off between the complexity of the biophysical processes of the urban canopy layer and the computational demands in order to be workable on regional climate time...

  11. Modelling and observing urban climate in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main aims of the present study are: (1) to evaluate the performance of two well-known mesoscale NWP (numerical weather prediction) models coupled to a UCM (Urban Canopy Models), and (2) to develop a proper measurement strategy for obtaining meteorological data that can be used in model evaluation studies. We choose the mesoscale models WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), respectively, because the partners in the present project have a large expertise with respect to these models. In addition WRF and RAMS have been successfully used in the meteorology and climate research communities for various purposes, including weather prediction and land-atmosphere interaction research. Recently, state-of-the-art UCM's were embedded within the land surface scheme of the respective models, in order to better represent the exchange of heat, momentum, and water vapour in the urban environment. Key questions addressed here are: What is the general model performance with respect to the urban environment?; How can useful and observational data be obtained that allow sensible validation and further parameterization of the models?; and Can the models be easily modified to simulate the urban climate under Dutch climatic conditions, urban configuration and morphology? Chapter 2 reviews the available Urban Canopy Models; we discuss their theoretical basis, the different representations of the urban environment, the required input and the output. Much of the information was obtained from the Urban Surface Energy Balance: Land Surface Scheme Comparison project (PILPS URBAN, PILPS stands for Project for Inter-comparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes). This project started in March 2008 and was coordinated by the Department of Geography, King's College London. In order to test the performance of our models we participated in this project. Chapter 3 discusses the main results of the first phase of PILPS URBAN. A first

  12. Explosive cyclones in CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.

    2014-12-01

    Explosive cyclones are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems with severe wind speeds and precipitation, affecting livelihoods and infrastructure primarily in coastal and marine environments. A better understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on these so called meteorological bombs is therefore of great societal relevance. This study evaluates how well CMIP5 climate models reproduce explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the northern hemisphere, and how these bombs respond to global warming. For this purpose an objective-feature tracking algorithm was used to identify and track extratropical cyclones from 25 CMIP5 models and 3 reanalysis products for the periods 1980 to 2005 and 2070 to 2099. Cyclones were identified as the maxima of T42 vorticity of 6h wind speed at 850 hPa. Explosive and non-explosive cyclones were separated based on the corresponding deepening rates of mean sea level pressure. Most models accurately reproduced the spatial distribution of bombs when compared to results from reanalysis data (R2 = 0.84, p-value = 0.00), with high frequencies along the Kuroshio Current and the Gulf Stream, as well as the exit regions of the polar jet streaks. Most models however significantly underestimated bomb frequencies by a third on average, and by 74% in the most extreme case. This negative frequency bias coincided with significant underestimations of either meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, or wind speeds of the polar jet streaks. Bomb frequency biases were significantly correlated with the number vertical model levels (R2= 0.36, p-value = 0.001), suggesting that the vertical atmospheric model resolution is crucial for simulating bomb frequencies accurately. The impacts of climate change on the location, frequency, and intensity of explosive cyclones were then explored for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projections were related to model bias, resolution, projected changes of SST gradients, and wind speeds

  13. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The last IPCC report affirms the predominant role of low cloud-radiative feedbacks in the inter-model spread of climate sensitivity. Understanding the mechanisms that control the behavior of low-level clouds is thus crucial. However, the complexity of coupled ocean-atmosphere models and the large number of processes potentially involved make the analysis of this response difficult. To simplify the analysis and to identify the most critical controls of cloud feedbacks, we analyze the cloud response to climate change simulated by the IPSL-CM5A model in a hierarchy of configurations. A comparison between three model configurations (coupled, atmospheric and aqua-planet) using the same physical parametrizations shows that the cloud response to global warming is dominated by a decrease of low clouds in regimes of moderate subsidence. Using a Single Column Model, forced by weak subsidence large-scale forcing, allows us to reproduce the vertical cloud profile predicted in the 3D model, as well as its response to climate change (if a stochastic forcing is added on vertical velocity). We analyze the sensitivity of this low-cloud response to external forcing and also to uncertain parameters of physical parameterizations involved on the atmospheric model. Through a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we highlight several mechanisms: (1) Robust: Over weak subsidence regimes, the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship predicts that a warmer atmosphere leads to a increase of the vertical MSE gradient, resulting on a strengthening of the import of low-MSE from the free atmosphere into the cloudy boundary layer. The MSE budget links changes of vertical advection and cloud radiative effects. (2) Physics Model Dependent: The coupling between shallow convection, turbulence and cloud schemes allows the intensification of low-MSE transport so that cloud radiative cooling becomes 'less necessary' to balance the energy budget (Robust positive low cloud-radiative feedback for the model). The

  14. Indoor climate quality after renovation for improved energy efficiency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gunnarsen, Lars Bo; Løck, Sebastian; Kolarik, Barbara;

    2016-01-01

    performance. The indoor quality classifications show minor improvements. By using design tools beyond the simple legal requirements, the rental dwelling marked is a far step ahead of most retrofitting of owner-occupied dwellings and houses. The fear of indoor climate degradation from retrofitted energy saving...... projects through both planning and construction. Advanced tools for design of retrofitting measures to increase energy performance and quality of the thermal indoor climate were used during the planning processes. Energy performance and indoor climate quality were assessed using simple classification tools...

  15. Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network releases search widget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2011-11-01

    The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) has launched a widget that can be embedded in any Web site to search the network's catalog of online resources relating to climate and energy topics for students in grades 6-12 and for general audiences. The catalog includes more than 300 high-quality existing digital resources, including learning activities, videos, visualizations, and short investigations that have been reviewed and annotated for scientific accuracy and pedagogical potential. The widget allows users to search keywords and then access the full catalog record of resources from the search. The CLEAN Web site includes a section on teaching climate and energy topics.

  16. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate...... risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies - a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.......5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co...

  17. US Climate Sensitivity Simulated with the NCEP Regional Spectral Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    10-year continuous U.S. climate simulations were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) using boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Dept. of Energy reanalyses and the global PCM (Parallel Climate Model) simulations for present day (1986-1996) and future (2040-2050) CO2 concentrations (about a 36% increased CO2). In order to examine the influence of physical parameterization differences as well as grid-resolution, fine resolution RSM simulations (50 km) were compared to coarse resolution (180 and 250 km) RSM simulations, which had resolutions comparable to the T62 reanalysis and PCM simulations. During the winter, the fine resolution RSM simulations provided more realistic detail over the western mountains. During the summer, large differences between the RSM and driving PCM simulations were found. Our results with present CO2 suggest that most of the differences between the regional climate model simulations and the climate simulations driven by the global model used to drive the regional climate model were not due to the finer resolution of the regional climate model but to the different treatment of the physical processes in the two models, especially when the subgrid scale physics was important, like during summer. Compared to the coarse resolution RSM simulation results, on the other hand, the fine resolution RSM simulations did show improved simulation skills especially when a good boundary condition such as the reanalysis was used to drive the RSM. Under increased CO2, the driving PCM and downscaled RSM simulations exhibited warming over all vertical layers and all regions. Both the RSM and PCM had increased precipitation during the winter, but during the summer, the PCM simulation had an overall precipitation increase mainly due to increased subgrid scale convective activity, whereas the RSM simulations exhibited precipitation decreases and the resulting RSM soil moisture became dryer, especially in the U

  18. Does climate policy lead to relocation with adverse effects for GHG emissions or not? A first assessment of the spillovers of climate policy for energy intensive industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy-intensive industries play a special role in climate policy. World-wide, industry is responsible for about 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. The emission intensity makes these industries an important target for climate policy. At the same time these industries are particularly vulnerable if climate policy would lead to higher energy costs, and if they would be unable to offset these increased costs. The side effects of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries are typically referred to as 'spillovers'. Negative spillovers reduce the effectiveness of a climate policy, while positive spillovers increase its effectiveness. This paper provides a review of the literature on the spillover effects of climate policy for carbon intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased share of non-Annex 1 countries. However, this trend is primarily driven by demand growth, and there is no empirical evidence for a role of environmental policy in these development patterns. In contrast, climate models do show a strong carbon leakage of emissions from these industries. Even though that climate policy may have a more profound impact than previous environmental policies, the results of the modelling are ambiguous. The energy and carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries is rapidly declining in most developing countries, and reducing the 'gap' between industrialized and developing countries. Still, considerable potential for emission reduction exists, both in developing and industrialized countries. Technology development is likely to deliver further reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions. Despite the potential for positive spillovers in the energy-intensive industries, none of the models used in the analysis of spillovers of climate policies has an endogenous representation of technological change for the energy-intensive industries. This underlines the need for a better understanding of

  19. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  20. From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing

  1. MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

  2. Climate change impacts in computable general equilibrium models: An overview

    OpenAIRE

    Döll, Sebastian

    2009-01-01

    This paper gives an overview about existing Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models dealing with climate impacts focusing on damage calculations and adaptation modelling. Empirical CGE models are used in a broad field of policy analysis. With respect to climate change applications have been focused on the calculation of climate damages and the mitigation of these damages. Facing the non-preventable damages from climate change that occur already in the next decades adaptation is becoming a...

  3. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Lerer, Sara Maria; Overgaard, J.; Grooss, J.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Christensen, J.H.; Refsgaard, J. C.

    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated with...... coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  4. UN Convention on Climate Change: effects on Australia's energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Australian government's interim planning target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions calls for a larger cut in emissions than is implied by the commitments contained in the recently completed United Nations Convention on Climate Change. The commitments in the Convention also leave considerable scope for how fast and by how much emissions are to be reduced. The aim in this article is to present an analysis of the effects on the Australian energy sector of stabilising carbon dioxide emissions at various levels and by various dates consistent with the commitments in the Convention, and to compare these effects with those of meeting the Australian government's current interim target. The major analytical tool used is MENSA, a multiperiod linear program-mining model of the Australian energy sector, The stabilisation targets are modelled to involve a gradual reduction in the amount of coal used for electricity generation from 1995 onwards, but coal continues to be the major source of base load electricity over the entire period to 2020. By contrast, modelling of the government's interim target indicates that coal would have to be almost completely phased out as a fuel for electricity generation by 2005. Analysis using the MENSA linear programming model of the Australian energy system also indicates that the total discounted cost of meeting such targets would be between $4.7 billion and $9.0 billion, compared with $41.2 billion for the government's interim target. 6 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs

  5. Modeling, Estimation and Control of Indoor Climate in Livestock Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Zhuang

    The main objective of this research is to design an efficient control system for the indoor climate of a large-scale partition-less livestock building, in order to maintain a healthy, comfortable and economically energy consuming indoor environment for the agricultural animals and farmers. In this...... resilience of the control system to disturbances beyond its bandwidth, increases the manipulators utilization efficiency, and reduces energy consumption by solving a constrained convex optimization. Through comparative simulation results analysis, the proposed modeling and control technique is proved to be...... scale livestock buildings, and could be considered as an alternative solution to the current used decentralized PID controller....

  6. Modelling Complexity: the case of Climate Science

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2011-01-01

    We briefly review some of the scientific challenges and epistemological issues related to climate science. We discuss the formulation and testing of theories and numerical models, which, given the presence of unavoidable uncertainties in observational data, the non-repeatability of world-experiments, and the fact that relevant processes occur in a large variety of spatial and temporal scales, require a rather different approach than in other scientific contexts. A brief discussion of the intrinsic limitations of geo-engineering solutions to global warming is presented, and a framework of investigation based upon non-equilibrium thermodynamics is proposed. We also critically discuss recently proposed perspectives of development of climate science based purely upon massive use of supercomputer and centralized planning of scientific priorities.

  7. Redistribution effects of energy and climate policy: The electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy and climate policies are usually seen as measures to internalize externalities. However, as a side effect, the introduction of these policies redistributes wealth between consumers and producers, and within these groups. While redistribution is seldom the focus of the academic literature in energy economics, it plays a central role in public debates and policy decisions. This paper compares the distributional effects of two major electricity policies: support schemes for renewable energy sources, and CO2 pricing. We find that the redistribution effects of both policies are large, and they work in opposed directions. While renewables support transfers wealth from producers to consumers, carbon pricing does the opposite. More specifically, we show that moderate amounts of wind subsidies can increase consumer surplus, even if consumers bear the subsidy costs. CO2 pricing, in contrast, increases aggregated producer surplus, even without free allocation of emission allowances; however, not all types of producers benefit. These findings are derived from an analytical model of electricity markets, and a calibrated numerical model of Northwestern Europe. Our findings imply that if policy makers want to avoid large redistribution they might prefer a mix of policies, even if CO2 pricing alone is the first-best climate policy in terms of allocative efficiency. -- Graphical abstract: Display Omitted -- Highlights: •CO2 pricing and renewables support have strikingly different impacts on rents. •Carbon pricing increases producer surplus and decreases consumer surplus. •Renewable support schemes (portfolio standards, feed-in tariffs) do the opposite. •We model these impacts theoretically and quantify them for Europe. •Redistribution of wealth is found to be significant in size

  8. Energy Assurance: Essential Energy Technologies for Climate Protection and Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Boudreaux, Philip R [ORNL; Dean, David Jarvis [ORNL; Fulkerson, William [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Gaddis, Abigail [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Graham, Robin Lambert [ORNL; Graves, Ronald L [ORNL; Hopson, Dr Janet L [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Hughes, Patrick [ORNL; Lapsa, Melissa Voss [ORNL; Mason, Thom [ORNL; Standaert, Robert F [ORNL; Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL; Zucker, Alexander [ORNL

    2009-12-01

    We present and apply a new method for analyzing the significance of advanced technology for achieving two important national energy goals: climate protection and energy security. Quantitative metrics for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and oil independence in 2030 are specified, and the impacts of 11 sets of energy technologies are analyzed using a model that employs the Kaya identity and incorporates the uncertainty of technological breakthroughs. The goals examined are a 50% to 80% reduction in CO2 emissions from energy use by 2050 and increased domestic hydrocarbon fuels supply and decreased demand that sum to 11 mmbd by 2030. The latter is intended to insure that the economic costs of oil dependence are not more than 1% of U.S. GDP with 95% probability by 2030. Perhaps the most important implication of the analysis is that meeting both energy goals requires a high probability of success (much greater than even odds) for all 11 technologies. Two technologies appear to be indispensable for accomplishment of both goals: carbon capture and storage, and advanced fossil liquid fuels. For reducing CO2 by more than 50% by 2050, biomass energy and electric drive (fuel cell or battery powered) vehicles also appear to be necessary. Every one of the 11 technologies has a powerful influence on the probability of achieving national energy goals. From the perspective of technology policy, conflict between the CO2 mitigation and energy security is negligible. These general results appear to be robust to a wide range of technology impact estimates; they are substantially unchanged by a Monte Carlo simulation that allows the impacts of technologies to vary by 20%.

  9. A pragmatic energy policy assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study was conducted in which exploratory changes were made to a conventional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The changes reflected the productivity of the public capital stock and investments in energy efficiency. It also reflected changes in technology and industrial energy use. The objective of the study was to examine the sensitivity of the effect of carbon taxes and energy efficiency standards to alternative assumptions in a computable general equilibrium model of the United States economy under five production sectors, agriculture, non-energy manufacturing, fossil energy, electricity and services. The newly developed CGE model proposed here has several innovative features. It uses an engineering-econometric energy demand model to determine industrial energy efficiency as it changes over time, and allows for the unexpected productivity effects of energy-efficiency investment. It also accounts for the contribution of public infrastructure investments to private productivity. Two kinds of climate/energy policies were modelled; a carbon tax and an energy efficiency standard

  10. Quantifying water and energy budgets and the impacts of climatic and human factors in the Haihe River Basin, China: 1. Model and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ying; Shen, Yanjun

    2015-09-01

    We have developed an operational model to simulate water and energy fluxes in the Haihe River Basin (231,800 km2 in size) for the past 28 years. This model is capable of estimating water and energy fluxes of irrigated croplands and heterogeneous grids. The model was validated using actual evapotranspiration (ETa) measured by an eddy covariance system, measured soil moisture in croplands, groundwater level measurements over the piedmont plain and runoff observations in a mountainous catchment. A long-term time series of water and energy balance components were then simulated at a daily time step by integrating remotely sensed information and meteorological data to examine the spatial and temporal distribution and changes in water and energy fluxes in the basin over the past 28 years. The results show that net radiation (Rn) in the mountainous regions is generally higher than that in the plain regions. ETa in the plain regions is higher than that in the mountainous regions mostly because of higher air temperature and larger areas of irrigated farmland. Higher sensible heat flux (H) and lower ETa in the urban areas are possibly due to less vegetation cover, an impervious surface, rapid drainage, and the heat island effect of cities. During the study period, a water deficit continuously occurred in the plain regions because of extensive pumping of groundwater for irrigation to meet the crop water requirements. Irrigation has led to significant groundwater depletion, which poses a substantial challenge to the sustainability of water resources in this basin.

  11. Modelling the hydrological cycle in assessments of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R.

    1992-01-01

    The predictions of climate change studies depend crucially on the hydrological cycles embedded in the different models used. It is shown here that uncertainties in hydrological processes and inconsistencies in both climate and impact models limit confidence in current assessments of climate change. A future course of action to remedy this problem is suggested.

  12. Modeling maize response to climate modification in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Anda

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Modeling provides a tool for a better understanding of the modified plant behaviour that results from various climatic differences. The present study provides new information about the physiological processes in maize (Zea mays L. in response to climatic changes. The aim was to help local farmers adapt to climate modifications in Hungary and mitigate the future consequences of these changes. A simulation model was applied to estimate the possible feedback on crop properties and elevated CO2. Increased CO2 and warming increased the ratio of energy converted into sensible heat. At canopy level, warming and elevated CO2 strengthened the influence of an external rise in air temperature. It was cooler inside the stand, as the canopy was able to compensate for external warming. Doubled CO2 concentration had a positive influence on photosynthesis when rainfall remained unchanged. Precipitation shortage decreased the positive effects of warming and elevated CO2. Considering the sensitivity of the photosynthetic process to meteorological factors, a gain in maize production with climate modification is not probable in Hungary.

  13. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  14. Hydroclimatology of the Nile: results from a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Y. A.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.

    2005-09-01

    This paper presents the result of the regional coupled climatic and hydrologic model of the Nile Basin. For the first time the interaction between the climatic processes and the hydrological processes on the land surface have been fully coupled. The hydrological model is driven by the rainfall and the energy available for evaporation generated in the climate model, and the runoff generated in the catchment is again routed over the wetlands of the Nile to supply moisture for atmospheric feedback. The results obtained are quite satisfactory given the extremely low runoff coefficients in the catchment. The paper presents the validation results over the sub-basins: Blue Nile, White Nile, Atbara river, the Sudd swamps, and the Main Nile for the period 1995 to 2000. Observational datasets were used to evaluate the model results including radiation, precipitation, runoff and evaporation data. The evaporation data were derived from satellite images over a major part of the Upper Nile. Limitations in both the observational data and the model are discussed. It is concluded that the model provides a sound representation of the regional water cycle over the Nile. The sources of atmospheric moisture to the basin, and location of convergence/divergence fields could be accurately illustrated. The model is used to describe the regional water cycle in the Nile basin in terms of atmospheric fluxes, land surface fluxes and land surface-climate feedbacks. The monthly moisture recycling ratio (i.e. locally generated/total precipitation) over the Nile varies between 8 and 14%, with an annual mean of 11%, which implies that 89% of the Nile water resources originates from outside the basin physical boundaries. The monthly precipitation efficiency varies between 12 and 53%, and the annual mean is 28%. The mean annual result of the Nile regional water cycle is compared to that of the Amazon and the Mississippi basins.

  15. Hydroclimatology of the Nile: results from a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Mohamed

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the result of the regional coupled climatic and hydrologic model of the Nile Basin. For the first time the interaction between the climatic processes and the hydrological processes on the land surface have been fully coupled. The hydrological model is driven by the rainfall and the energy available for evaporation generated in the climate model, and the runoff generated in the catchment is again routed over the wetlands of the Nile to supply moisture for atmospheric feedback. The results obtained are quite satisfactory given the extremely low runoff coefficients in the catchment. The paper presents the validation results over the sub-basins: Blue Nile, White Nile, Atbara river, the Sudd swamps, and the Main Nile for the period 1995 to 2000. Observational datasets were used to evaluate the model results including radiation, precipitation, runoff and evaporation data. The evaporation data were derived from satellite images over a major part of the Upper Nile. Limitations in both the observational data and the model are discussed. It is concluded that the model provides a sound representation of the regional water cycle over the Nile. The sources of atmospheric moisture to the basin, and location of convergence/divergence fields could be accurately illustrated. The model is used to describe the regional water cycle in the Nile basin in terms of atmospheric fluxes, land surface fluxes and land surface-climate feedbacks. The monthly moisture recycling ratio (i.e. locally generated/total precipitation over the Nile varies between 8 and 14%, with an annual mean of 11%, which implies that 89% of the Nile water resources originates from outside the basin physical boundaries. The monthly precipitation efficiency varies between 12 and 53%, and the annual mean is 28%. The mean annual result of the Nile regional water cycle is compared to that of the Amazon and the Mississippi basins.

  16. Hydroclimatology of the Nile: results from a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Mohamed

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the result of the first regional coupled climatic and hydrologic model of the Nile. For the first time the interaction between the climatic processes and the hydrological processes on the land surface have been fully coupled. The hydrological model is driven by the rainfall and the energy available for evaporation generated in the climate model, and the runoff generated in the catchment is again routed over the wetlands of the Nile to supply moisture for atmospheric feedback. The results obtained are surprisingly accurate given the extremely low runoff coefficients in the catchment.

    The paper presents model results over the sub-basins: Blue Nile, White Nile, Atbara river and the Main Nile for the period 1995 to 2000, but focuses on the Sudd swamp. Limitations in both the observational data and the model are discussed. It is concluded that the model provides a sound representation of the regional water cycle over the Nile. The model is used to describe the regional water cycle in the Nile basin in terms of atmospheric fluxes, land surface fluxes and land surface-climate feedbacks. The monthly moisture recycling ratio (i.e. locally generated/total precipitation over the Nile varies between 8 and 14%, with an annual mean of 11%, which implies that 89% of the Nile water resources originates from outside the basin physical boundaries. The monthly precipitation efficiency varies between 12 and 53%, and the annual mean is 28%. The mean annual result of the Nile regional water cycle is compared to that of the Amazon and the Mississippi basins.

  17. Environmental Issues, Climate Changes, and Energy Security in Developing Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Sovacool, Benjamin K

    2014-01-01

    Four environmental dimensions of energy security—climate change, air pollution, water availability and quality, and land-use change—and the environmental impact of 13 energy systems on each are discussed in this paper. Climate change threatens more land, people, and economies in Asia and small Pacific island states than any other part of the planet. Air pollution takes a substantial toll on national health-care expenditures and economies in general. Of the 18 megacities worldwide with severe ...

  18. Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewell, Jessica; Vinichenko, Vadim; McCollum, David; Bauer, Nico; Riahi, Keywan; Aboumahboub, Tino; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kober, Tom; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van der Zwaan, Bob; Cherp, Aleh

    2016-06-01

    Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2–15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ∘C.

  19. Energy efficiency in waste-to-energy and its relevance with regard to climate control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragossnig, Arne M; Wartha, Christian; Kirchner, Andreas

    2008-02-01

    This article focuses on systematically highlighting the ways to optimize waste-to-energy plants in terms of their energy efficiency as an indicator of the positive effect with regard to climate control. Potentials for increasing energy efficiency are identified and grouped into categories. The measures mentioned are illustrated by real-world examples. As an example, district cooling as a means for increasing energy efficiency in the district heating network of Vienna is described. Furthermore a scenario analysis shows the relevance of energy efficiency in waste management scenarios based on thermal treatment of waste with regard to climate control. The description is based on a model that comprises all relevant processes from the collection and transportation up to the thermal treatment of waste. The model has been applied for household-like commercial waste. The alternatives compared are a combined heat and power incinerator, which is being introduced in many places as an industrial utility boiler or in metropolitan areas where there is a demand for district heating and a classical municipal solid waste incinerator producing solely electrical power. For comparative purposes a direct landfilling scenario has been included in the scenario analysis. It is shown that the energy efficiency of thermal treatment facilities is crucial to the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted. PMID:18338703

  20. The international coordination of climate model validation and intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    1995-12-31

    Climate modeling, whereby basic physical laws are used to integrate the physics and dynamics of climate into a consistent system, plays a key role in climate research and is the medium through. Depending upon the portion(s) of the climate system being considered, climate models range from those concerned only with the equilibrium globally-averaged surface temperature to those depicting the 3-dimensional time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Here only the latter class of models are considered, which are commonly known as general circulation models (or GCMs). (author)

  1. Construction of a novel economy-climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHOU JieMing; DONG WenJie; YE DuZheng

    2007-01-01

    An attempt has been made to construct a novel economy-climate model by combining climate change research with agricultural economy research to evaluate the influence of global climate change on grain yields. The insertion of a climate change factor into the economic C-D (Cobb-Dauglas) production function model yields a novel evaluation model, which connects the climate change factor to the economic variation factor, and the performance and reasonableness of the novel evaluation model are also preliminarily simulated and verified.

  2. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2013-08-01

    A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

  3. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    OpenAIRE

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, C.; Clark, D.B.; S. Folwell; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; J. Heinke; F. Ludwig; Voß, F.; A. J. Wiltshire

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–...

  4. Ideas for supporting energy saving, renewables under climate levy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article discusses the UK government's proposal for making some of the revenue from the climate levy available for energy efficiency and low-carbon technology, and considers ways in which the programme can be managed. Enhanced capital allowances (ECAs) for investments in energy efficient technologies, the certification approach, the proposed list of candidate technologies for exemption from the climate levy, draft clauses on the climate levy to be included in next years Finance Bill, and the EU Directive on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control are discussed. (UK)

  5. Climate stability and sensitivity in some simple conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, J. Ray

    2012-02-01

    A theoretical investigation of climate stability and sensitivity is carried out using three simple linearized models based on the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget. The simplest is the zero-dimensional model (ZDM) commonly used as a conceptual basis for climate sensitivity and feedback studies. The others are two-zone models with tropics and extratropics of equal area; in the first of these (Model A), the dynamical heat transport (DHT) between the zones is implicit, in the second (Model B) it is explicitly parameterized. It is found that the stability and sensitivity properties of the ZDM and Model A are very similar, both depending only on the global-mean radiative response coefficient and the global-mean forcing. The corresponding properties of Model B are more complex, depending asymmetrically on the separate tropical and extratropical values of these quantities, as well as on the DHT coefficient. Adopting Model B as a benchmark, conditions are found under which the validity of the ZDM and Model A as climate sensitivity models holds. It is shown that parameter ranges of physical interest exist for which such validity may not hold. The 2 × CO2 sensitivities of the simple models are studied and compared. Possible implications of the results for sensitivities derived from GCMs and palaeoclimate data are suggested. Sensitivities for more general scenarios that include negative forcing in the tropics (due to aerosols, inadvertent or geoengineered) are also studied. Some unexpected outcomes are found in this case. These include the possibility of a negative global-mean temperature response to a positive global-mean forcing, and vice versa.

  6. Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Donald R.

    2001-01-01

    This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

  7. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concent

  8. Effective climate-energy solutions, escape routes and peak oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many well-intended climate-energy strategies are ineffective in the absence of serious environmental regulation. This holds, among others, for direct support of clean energy, voluntary energy conservation, technical standards on a limited set of products, unilateral stringent carbon pricing, and awaiting peak oil as a climate strategy. All of these suffer from “escape routes” that indirectly increase CO2 emissions and thus make the original strategy ineffective. On the other hand, environmental regulation alone may lead to a myopia-bias, stimulating early dominance of cost-effective technologies and a focus on incremental innovations associated with such technologies rather than on radical innovations. Although adopting a partial viewpoint keeps the analysis simple, we urgently need a more inclusive systems perspective on climate solutions. This will allow the formulation of an effective climate policy package that addresses the various escape routes. - Highlights: ► Many well-intended climate-energy strategies are ineffective because of escape routes. ► In this context the relationship between peak oil and climate policy receives attention. ► Environmental regulation alone creates myopia-bias, the resolution of which requires technology-specific policies. ► To formulate an effective climate policy package an inclusive systems perspective is needed.

  9. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  10. Energy exporters and climate change. Potential economic impacts of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This review paper has been written on a commission by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London and is part of a project to investigate the possible impact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on energy markets and therefore on countries exporting oil, gas and coal. The aim of the project conducted by RIIA is to achieve a better understanding of the role of energy exporters in international climate change negotiations on the road towards the second Conference of Parties in Kyoto at the end of 1997 and the underlying national strategies. All four 'economy'-oriented global model studies reviewed in this paper indicate that CO2-reduction policies would cause wide differences in welfare effects across regions. It appears that energy-exporting countries would suffer the greatest welfare losses. Although several policy instruments can be implemented to achieve CO2-emission reductions, only carbon taxes are considered in the models. The model results show that if world level CO2 emissions are approximately stabilized at their 1990 levels, the cumulative losses in GDP of energy exporters generally range between 3% and 12% by 2010. It should be strongly emphasized that the sign and magnitude of the economic impact of CO2 policy on energy exporters depend critically on how the policy instrument is designed. In the case of a carbon tax the following factors are crucial: (1) the choice between a consumption and a production tax, (2) whether it is based on a global or unilateral agreement, (3) the mode of revenue redistribution among countries and (4) whether emission trading is allowed. 27 refs

  11. Building energy efficiency and thermal comfort in tropical climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bastide, A.; Lauret, P.; Garde, F.; Boyer, H. [Laboratoire de Physique du Batiment et des Systemes, Universite de La Reunion, Saint-Pierre, Ile de La Reunion (France)

    2006-07-01

    The paper deals with the optimization of building energy efficiency in tropical climates by reducing the period of air-conditioning thanks to natural ventilation and a better bioclimatic design. A bioclimatic approach to designing comfortable buildings in hot and humid tropical regions requires, firstly, some preliminary, important work on the building envelope to limit the energy contributions, and secondly, an airflow optimization based on the analysis of natural ventilation airflow networks. For the first step, tools such as nodal or zonal models have been largely implemented in building energy codes to evaluate energy transport between indoor and outdoor. For the second step, the assessment of air velocities, in three dimensions and in a large space, can only be performed through the use of detailed models such as with CFD. A new modelling approach based on the derivation of a new quantity - i.e. the well-ventilated percentage of a living space is proposed. The well-ventilated percentage of a space allows a time analysis of the air motion behaviour of the building in its environment. These percentages can be over a period such as 1 day, a season or a year. Twelve living spaces with different configuration of openings have been studied to compare the performance of ventilation function of the opening distribution. Results and discussion are presented in the paper. This method is helpful for an architect to design the rooms according to their use, and their environment. Finally, the developed models can be used in building projects to estimate the period of the natural ventilation and to reduce the energy consumption due to air-conditioning. (author)

  12. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models

    OpenAIRE

    J. Cermak; Furrer, R.; Knutti, R.; Meehl, G. A.; Tebaldi, C.

    2010-01-01

    Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous general circulation climate models have been run for a common set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multimodel ensembles sample initial conditions, parameters, and structural uncertainties in the model design, and they have prompted a variety of approaches to quantifying uncertainty in future climate change. International climate change assessments also rely heavily on these ...

  13. Separation of energy policy and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The earth's climate cooled down in the years from 1945 to 1975, and many people thought this presaged a new ice age. Yet the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere rose during the same period. This is an important fact to consider when discussing policy, since it indicates that the emission of greenhouse gases and the climate do not show a one-to-one correlation. Some blamed the temperature decline on increased volcanic activity and others on reduced solar activity; yet others proposed that it was due to the great amount of coal being burnt in those days which charged the atmosphere with suspended particulates and so filtered the incident sunlight. Be that as it may, it is clear that many other processes beside the emission of carbon dioxide can affect the global climate

  14. Modelling precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kyselý, Jan; Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Plavcová, Eva

    Patras: University of Patras, 2010 - (Argiriou, A.; Kazantzidis, A.), s. 833-838 ISBN 978-960-99254-0-2. [International Conference of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics (COMECAP2010) /10./. Patras (GR), 25.05.2010-28.05.2010] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420801 Grant ostatní: ENSEMBLES(XE) 505539 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : precipitation extremes * region-of-influence method * regional climate models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  15. Mixing parameterizations in ocean climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshonkin, S. N.; Gusev, A. V.; Zalesny, V. B.; Byshev, V. I.

    2016-03-01

    Results of numerical experiments with an eddy-permitting ocean circulation model on the simulation of the climatic variability of the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean are analyzed. We compare the ocean simulation quality with using different subgrid mixing parameterizations. The circulation model is found to be sensitive to a mixing parametrization. The computation of viscosity and diffusivity coefficients by an original splitting algorithm of the evolution equations for turbulence characteristics is found to be as efficient as traditional Monin-Obukhov parameterizations. At the same time, however, the variability of ocean climate characteristics is simulated more adequately. The simulation of salinity fields in the entire study region improves most significantly. Turbulent processes have a large effect on the circulation in the long-term through changes in the density fields. The velocity fields in the Gulf Stream and in the entire North Atlantic Subpolar Cyclonic Gyre are reproduced more realistically. The surface level height in the Arctic Basin is simulated more faithfully, marking the Beaufort Gyre better. The use of the Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number improves the quality of ocean modeling.

  16. Indoor climate in renovated and energy retrofitted social housing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Henrik Nellemose; Jensen, Ole Michael

    2016-01-01

    Copenhagen. It was found that energy consumption and indoor climate are ever more in focus when buying a house and important drivers for house owners’ motivation for retrofitting their existing house. Energy retrofitting is complicated and it is also experienced as such by many house owners. There is...... uncertainty as regards choice of solutions, economic savings and financing. Nonetheless, most house owners, who have carried out energy retrofitting, have had a positive experience both in relation to energy consumption and perceived indoor climate, e.g. by more comfortable room temperature, less draught...

  17. Climate information for the application of solar energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In view of population growth, industrialization and urbanization which provoked increasing energy demand there has been an increasing interest in developing new technologies that use various renewable energy sources and have less environmental impact, such as solar, wind, tidal and biomass. Solar energy is one of the energy resources with a wide geographical distribution. Nowadays, its contribution to the world's energy supply is very small, but it is considered an important long term option which will satisfy, together with conventional energy sources, the future energy needs of the world. The main objective of this work is to report the actual uses of the principal types of solar energy systems, based on their climatic, technological and economical context. This is to improve the dissemination of information on the application of climate knowledge and data, especially by national meteorological services, with the purpose to improve the planning, design and operation of solar energy systems, as well as facilitate their more widespread use

  18. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today's climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling

  19. Supporting Teachers in Climate Change Instruction - The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) Tool Kit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, A. U.; Ledley, T. S.; Buhr, S. M.; Manduca, C. A.; Fox, S.; Kirk, K. B.; Grogan, M.; Niepold, F.; Carley, S.; Lynds, S. E.; Howell, C. D.

    2012-12-01

    The topic of climate change comes up regularly in news stories and household discussions. However, a recent poll among teenagers about their knowledge of climate change shows that teenagers' understanding of the basics of the climate system is minimal with 54% receiving a failing grade (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The upcoming Next Generation Science Standards emphasize that solid knowledge about climate change and sustainability is essential for students to be prepared for the decisions the next generation of citizens will face. We summarize the needs described by educators in a national, multi-year informant pool study focused on climate instruction, and outline the demands the new Next Generation Science Standards are posing on educators, in terms of climate and sustainability instruction. We then showcase different tools available to educators to address these needs. The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN, cleanet.org) supports educators in addressing these challenges and assists them in their teaching about climate topics. In this presentation we will demonstrate the various avenues through which the CLEAN portal can help educators improve their own climate and energy literacy, support them in determining why and how to effectively integrate the climate and energy principles into their teaching, and facilitate their successful use of the resources with their students. This will include a brief overview of the following features: a) The breadth of the collection , which contains over 450 reviewed resources, and the multi-faceted search that can help educators quickly find materials that are most relevant to their needs; b) Annotations of individual resources that provide information extracted from the reviews about the science, pedagogy, and teaching tips, as well as indicating the relevant climate or energy principles and the AAAS Benchmarks for Science Literacy, the National Science Education Standards, and the Guidelines for Excellence in

  20. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2015-07-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  1. Energy modelling and capacity building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Planning and Economic Studies Section of the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Energy is focusing on building analytical capacity in MS for energy-environmental-economic assessments and for the elaboration of sustainable energy strategies. It offers a variety of analytical models specifically designed for use in developing countries for (i) evaluating alternative energy strategies; (ii) assessing environmental, economic and financial impacts of energy options; (iii) assessing infrastructure needs; (iv) evaluating regional development possibilities and energy trade; (v) assessing the role of nuclear power in addressing priority issues (climate change, energy security, etc.). These models can be used for analysing energy or electricity systems, and to assess possible implications of different energy, environmental or financial policies that affect the energy sector and energy systems. The models vary in complexity and data requirements, and so can be adapted to the available data, statistics and analytical needs of different countries. These models are constantly updated to reflect changes in the real world and in the concerns that drive energy system choices. They can provide thoughtfully informed choices for policy makers over a broader range of circumstances and interests. For example, they can readily reflect the workings of competitive energy and electricity markets, and cover such topics as external costs. The IAEA further offers training in the use of these models and -just as important- in the interpretation and critical evaluation of results. Training of national teams to develop national competence over the full spectrum of models, is a high priority. The IAEA maintains a broad spectrum of databanks relevant to energy, economic and environmental analysis in MS, and make these data available to analysts in MS for use in their own analytical work. The Reference Technology Data Base (RTDB) and the Reference Data Series (RDS-1) are the major vehicles by which we

  2. A 'Common Information Model' for the climate modelling process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treshansky, Allyn; Devine, Gerard

    2010-05-01

    The Common Information Model (CIM), developed by the EU-funded METAFOR project (http://metaforclimate.eu), is a formal model of the climate modeling process. It provides a rich structured description of not only climate data but also the "provenance" of that data: the software models and tools used to generate that data, the simulations those models implement, the experiments those simulations conform to, etc.. This formal metadata model is expected to add value to those datasets by firstly codifying what is currently found only in the heads of climate experts (the aforementioned provenance of climate datasets), and secondly by allowing tools to be developed that make searching for and analysing climate datasets a much more intuitive process than it has been in the past. This paper will describe the structure of the CIM, concentrating on how it works with and what it adds to other metadata standards. As alluded to above, current metadata standards concentrate on the contents of a climate dataset. Scientific detail and relevance of the model components that generated that data as well as the context for why it was run are missing. The CIM addresses this gap. However, it does not aim to replace existing standards. Rather, wherever possible it re-uses them. It also attempts to standardise our understanding of climate modeling at a very high level, at a conceptual level. This results in a UML description of climate modeling, the CONCIM. METAFOR extracts from this high-level UML the bits of the CIM that we want to use in our applications; These bits get converted into a set of XSD application schemas, the APPCIM. Other user groups may derive a different APPCIM (in a different format) that suits them from the same CONCIM. Thus there is a common understanding of the concepts used in climate modeling even if the implementation differs. In certain key places the CIM describes a general structure over which a specific Controlled Vocabulary (CV) can be applied. For example

  3. Energy, atmospheric chemistry, and global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    Global atmospheric changes due to ozone destruction and the greenhouse effect are discussed. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is reviewed, including its judgements regarding global warming and its recommendations for improving predictive capability. The chemistry of ozone destruction and the global atmospheric budget of nitrous oxide are reviewed, and the global sources of nitrous oxide are described.

  4. The E U Climate-Energy Package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the climate measures approved by the European Parliament last December, particular attention deserve the agreement on the E U CO2 Emission Trading Scheme (Ets), as well as the Effort-Sharing Decision, ensuring that Member States contribute to the E U objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in non- Ets sectors.

  5. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N;

    2012-01-01

    illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...... in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed....

  6. Watershed response and land energy feedbacks under climate change depend upon groundwater.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maxwell, R M; Kollet, S J

    2008-06-10

    Human induced climate change will have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle, creating changes in fresh water resources, land cover, and feedbacks that are difficult to characterize, which makes it an issue of global importance. Previous studies have not included subsurface storage in climate change simulations and feedbacks. A variably-saturated groundwater flow model with integrated overland flow and land surface model processes is used to examine the interplay between coupled water and energy processes under climate change conditions. A case study from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) USA, an important agricultural region that is susceptible to drought, is used as the basis for three scenarios simulations using a modified atmospheric forcing dataset to reflect predicted effects due to human-induced climate change. These scenarios include an increase in the atmospheric temperature and variations in rainfall amount and are compared to the present-day climate case. Changes in shallow soil saturation and groundwater levels are quantified as well as the corresponding energy fluxes at the land surface. Here we show that groundwater and subsurface lateral flow processes are critical in understanding hydrologic response and energy feedbacks to climate change and that certain regions are more susceptible to changes in temperature, while others to changes in precipitation. This groundwater control is critical for understanding recharge and drought processes, possible under future climate conditions.

  7. Climate Change and Vulnerabilities of the European Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliano Buceti

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption induces climate change but at the same time modifications in climate impact energy sector both in term of supply capacity and shifts in energy demands. Different regions will be affected in different ways and this paper aims at analysing the issue at European level. Usually rising sea levels, extremes of weather and an increase in the frequency of droughts and floods are indicated play havoc with the world's energy systems but they can be hardly estimated and this study will be limited to the effects of the increase in average temperature. Tipping points are also taken out of any quantitative assessment. Structure of the EU energy budget is presented, shifts in energy demand, vulnerabilities of supply and risks for energy infrastructure are discussed in order to, eventually, provide figures of possible further threats to continental energy security.

  8. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  9. Climate Change Taxes and Energy Efficiency in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 2003 Japan proposed a Climate Change Tax to reduce its CO2 emissions to the level required by the Kyoto Protocol. If implemented, the tax would be levied on fossil fuel use and the revenue distributed to encourage the purchase of energy efficient equipment. Analysis using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model shows that this policy is unlikely to bring Japan into compliance with its Kyoto target unless the subsidy encourages improvement in energy intensity well beyond Japan's recent historical experience. Similar demand-management programs in the US, where there has been extensive experience, have not been nearly as effective as they would need to be to achieve energy efficiency goals of the proposal. The Tax proposal also calls for limits on international emission trading. We find that this limit substantially affects costs of compliance. The welfare loss with full emissions trading is 1/6 that when Japan meets its target though domestic actions only, the carbon price is lower, and there is a smaller loss of energy-intensive exports. Japan can achieve substantial savings from emissions trading even under cases where, for example, the full amount of the Russian allowance is not available in international markets

  10. Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2009-01-01

    How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this

  11. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian [University of California at Berkeley; Hsiang, Solomon M. [Princeton University; Schlenker, Wolfram [Columbia University; Sobel, Adam H. [Columbia University

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  12. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  13. A Data Driven Framework for Integrating Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, C.; Kleese van Dam, K.; Liu, Y.; Elsethagen, T.; Guillen, Z.; Stephan, E.; Critchlow, T.; Gorton, I.

    2012-12-01

    There are increasing needs for research addressing complex climate sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. Decisions about allocating scarce water across competing municipal, agricultural, and ecosystem demands is just one of the challenges ahead, along with decisions regarding competing land use priorities such as biofuels, food, and species habitat. Being able to predict the extent of future climate change in the context of introducing alternative energy production strategies requires a new generation of modeling capabilities. We will also need more complete representations of human systems at regional scales, incorporating the influences of population centers, land use, agriculture and existing and planned electrical demand and generation infrastructure. At PNNL we are working towards creating a first-of-a-kind capability known as the Integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM). The fundamental goal of the iRESM initiative is the critical analyses of the tradeoffs and consequences of decision and policy making for integrated human and environmental systems. This necessarily combines different scientific processes, bridging different temporal and geographic scales and resolving the semantic differences between them. To achieve this goal, iRESM is developing a modeling framework and supporting infrastructure that enable the scientific team to evaluate different scenarios in light of specific stakeholder questions such as "How do regional changes in mean climate states and climate extremes affect water storage and energy consumption and how do such decisions influence possible mitigation and carbon management schemes?" The resulting capability will give analysts a toolset to gain insights into how regional economies can respond to climate change mitigation policies and accelerated deployment of alternative energy technologies. The iRESM framework consists of a collection of coupled models working with high

  14. Climate Change Resilience Planning at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, D. W.; Johnson, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a site sustainability plan for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina in accordance with Executive Order 13693, which charges each DOE agency with "identifying and addressing projected impacts of climate change" and "calculating the potential cost and risk to mission associated with agency operations". The plan will comprise i) projections of climate change, ii) surveys of site managers to estimate the effects of climate change on site operations, and iii) a determination of adaptive actions. Climate change projections for SRS are obtained from multiple sources, including an online repository of downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations of future climate and downscaled GCM simulations produced at SRNL. Taken together, we have projected data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind - all variables with a strong influence on site operations. SRNL is working to engage site facility managers and facilitate a "bottom up" approach to climate change resilience planning, where the needs and priorities of stakeholders are addressed throughout the process. We make use of the Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool, an Excel-based program designed to accept as input various climate scenarios ('exposure'), the susceptibility of assets to climate change ('sensitivity'), and the ability of these assets to cope with climate change ('adaptive capacity'). These are combined to produce a series of scores that highlight vulnerabilities. Working with site managers, we have selected the most important assets, estimated their expected response to climate change, and prepared a report highlighting the most endangered facilities. Primary risks include increased energy consumption, decreased water availability, increased forest fire danger, natural resource degradation, and compromised outdoor worker safety in a warmer and more humid climate. Results of this study will aid in driving

  15. A new coupled ice sheet/climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Fyke

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI. The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet.

    A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  16. A new coupled ice sheet-climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Fyke

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model, that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI. The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet.

    A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  17. A new coupled ice sheet-climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyke, J. G.; Weaver, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Eby, M.; Carter, L.; Mackintosh, A.

    2010-08-01

    The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model, that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI). The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB) field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT) biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet. A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  18. A new coupled ice sheet/climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyke, J. G.; Weaver, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Eby, M.; Carter, L.; Mackintosh, A.

    2011-03-01

    The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI). The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB) field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT) biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet. A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  19. Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Haas

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

  20. Renewable and low-carbon energies as mitigation options of climate change for China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urban, F.; Benders, R. M. J.; Moll, H. C.

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses how renewable and low-carbon energies can serve as mitigation options of climate change in China's power sector. Our study is based on scenarios developed in PowerPlan, a bottom-up model simulating a countries' power sector and its emissions. We first adjusted the model to Chi

  1. Combating complexity: the integration of EU climate and energy policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radostina Primova

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we analyse EU energy policy from the perspective of the EU’s long-term commitments to combat climate change. We focus on the policy integration of climate concerns – ‘climate policy integration’ (CPI. We seek to answer the question: what is the extent of CPI in energy policy, and what factors can explain this level of CPI? After outlining a conceptualisation of CPI that argues for applying a principled priority standard for the assessment of the level of integration of climate policy objectives in other policy sectors, we apply an analytical framework, with factors derived from general theories of European integration and literature on environmental policy integration, to explain the strength of CPI in two sub-energy sector case studies – renewable energy policies and internal energy market policies. CPI is found to be insufficient in both cases, and two factors are highlighted as particularly crucial for furthering CPI: political commitment to CPI, and the strong participation of climate advocates in the policy process. The article suggests that the expansion of EU competence in energy policy does not necessarily provide a guarantee for full and complete CPI.

  2. An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iotova, A. [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

    1995-12-31

    A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

  3. The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from renewable sources, however, greatly depends on climatic conditions, which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change (GCC). This paper analyzes the vulnerabilities of renewable energy production in Brazil for the cases of hydropower generation and liquid biofuels production, given a set of long-term climate projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. The most important result found in this study is the increasing energy vulnerability of the poorest regions of Brazil to GCC. Both biofuels production (particularly biodiesel) and electricity generation (particularly hydropower) may negatively suffer from changes in the climate of those regions. Other renewable energy sources-such as wind power generation-may also be vulnerable, raising the need for further research. However, the results found are fundamentally dependent on the climate projections which, in turn, are still highly uncertain with respect to the future evolution of greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and GCC. Therefore, in such long-term scenario analyses, the trends and directions derived are the ones to be emphasized rather than the precise results one arrives

  4. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated in...... impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  5. Developing a Common Information Model for climate models and data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valcke, S.; Balaji, V.; Bentley, P.; Guilyardi, E.; Lawrence, B.; Pascoe, C.; Steenman-Clark, L.; Toussaint, F.; Treshansky, A.

    2009-04-01

    The Metafor project, funded under the EU Framework Programme 7, proposes a Common Information Model (CIM) to describe in a standard way climate data and the models and modelling environments that produced this data. To establish the CIM, Metafor first considered the metadata models developed by other groups engaged in similar efforts in Europe and worlwide, such as the US Earth System Curator, explored fragmentation and gaps as well as duplication of information present in these metadata models, and reviewed current problems in identifying, accessing or using climate data present in existing repositories. Based on this analysis and on different use cases, the first version of the CIM is composed of 5 packages. The "data" package is used to describe the data objects that can be collected and stored in any number of ways; the "activity" package details the simulations and experiments and related requirements that were performed with numerical (possibly coupled) models described with the "software" packages. Both data and models can be associated with numerical grids represented by the "grid" package and finally the "shared" package gathers concepts shared among the other packages. The CIM is defined and implemented in the Unified Modelling Language (UML) and application schema have been generated in XML schema. Aiming at a wide adoption of the CIM, Metafor will optimize the way climate data infrastructures are used to store knowledge, thereby adding value to primary research data and information, and providing an essential asset for the numerous stakeholders actively engaged in climate change issues (policy, research, impacts, mitigation, private sector).

  6. Energy-consumption modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiter, E.R.

    1980-01-01

    A highly sophisticated and accurate approach is described to compute on an hourly or daily basis the energy consumption for space heating by individual buildings, urban sectors, and whole cities. The need for models and specifically weather-sensitive models, composite models, and space-heating models are discussed. Development of the Colorado State University Model, based on heat-transfer equations and on a heuristic, adaptive, self-organizing computation learning approach, is described. Results of modeling energy consumption by the city of Minneapolis and Cheyenne are given. Some data on energy consumption in individual buildings are included.

  7. Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Hui; LIN Er-da; Tim Wheeler; Andrew Challinor; JIANG Shuai

    2013-01-01

    Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10%for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.

  8. Report on broad reconsiderations. Part 1. Energy and Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In twenty policy areas various working groups have studied variants that can lead to a 20% budget cut in the government budgets of the Netherlands, which must be realized in 2015. The aim of the reconsiderations is to use less government means to realize the same results, or even better results if possible. The broad reconsideration in the field of energy and climate focuses on the expenditure for renewable energy and energy efficiency, mitigating (inter)national climate policy and fiscal benefits. This report addresses six policy variants.

  9. Coupled Climate Model Appraisal a Benchmark for Future Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, T J; AchutaRao, K; Bader, D; Covey, C; Doutriaux, C M; Fiorino, M; Gleckler, P J; Sperber, K R; Taylor, K E

    2005-08-22

    The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has produced an extensive appraisal of simulations of present-day climate by eleven representative coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) which were developed during the period 1995-2002. Because projections of potential future global climate change are derived chiefly from OAGCMs, there is a continuing need to test the credibility of these predictions by evaluating model performance in simulating the historically observed climate. For example, such an evaluation is an integral part of the periodic assessments of climate change that are reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The PCMDI appraisal thus provides a useful benchmark for future studies of this type. The appraisal mainly analyzed multi-decadal simulations of present-day climate by models that employed diverse representations of climate processes for atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land, as well as different techniques for coupling these components (see Table). The selected models were a subset of those entered in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2, Covey et al. 2003). For these ''CMIP2+ models'', more atmospheric or oceanic variables were provided than the minimum requirements for participation in CMIP2. However, the appraisal only considered those climate variables that were supplied from most of the CMIP2+ models. The appraisal focused on three facets of the simulations of current global climate: (1) secular trends in simulation time series which would be indicative of a problematical ''coupled climate drift''; (2) comparisons of temporally averaged fields of simulated atmospheric and oceanic climate variables with available observational climatologies; and (3) correspondences between simulated and observed modes of climatic variability. Highlights of these climatic aspects manifested by different CMIP2+ simulations are briefly

  10. International energy technology collaboration and climate change mitigation. Synthesis report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Justus, D. [Environment Directorate, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France); Philibert, C. [Energy and Environment Division, International Energy Agency IEA, Paris (France)

    2005-11-18

    towards commercialisation, the scope for collaborative RD and D becomes more limited. However, there is ample range for international co-operation in market deployment efforts, information dissemination and standards development. Government collaboration related to energy technology and climate change is carried out in a variety of forms. The formal enabling mechanisms are surveyed here with examples of current initiatives and, where available, evidence of their results. All of the mechanisms considered here are based on common objectives, voluntary participation and a shared view that collaboration can provide benefits additional to an independent pursuit. Beyond those elements, the characteristics of collaborative mechanisms vary widely and range from pronouncements of 'good intentions' to legal contracts with non-compliance provisions. Some approaches include centralised management, defined milestones, cost-sharing, monitoring and evaluation provisions; while others function on a dispersed basis and are largely for data and information exchange. There is not one model that accommodates the various modes in which governments pursue co-operative international energy technology development. What is important in designing effective joint activities is flexibility in the nature of the collaboration, the participants and the scope of the programme. The form of an approach for near-market collaborative activities, for example an energy efficiency labelling scheme for refrigerators, is most likely to be distinct from co-operative research on nanotechnologies. Joint research consortia for large-scale energy technology innovation tend to have a structured framework, significant duration and a diversity of players. The design features that need to be considered for developing an effective collaboration dealing with new energy technologies and systems - from setting goals to sharing results - are summarised in the last section.

  11. Climate and energy targets of the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attention is paid to two important parts of the targets for climate and energy which were determined by the European Council in March 2007 for the year 2020: (1) the impact of the emission reduction target and the correlations with the sustainable development targets; and (2) the obstacles for the European Union on the way to thar 20% renewable energy target

  12. Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

    2012-01-01

    We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

  13. Industrial Energy Efficiency and Climate Change Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Bernstein, Lenny; Roy, Joyashree; Price, Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Harnisch, Jochen

    2009-02-02

    Industry contributes directly and indirectly (through consumed electricity) about 37% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, of which over 80% is from energy use. Total energy-related emissions, which were 9.9 GtCO2 in 2004, have grown by 65% since 1971. Even so, industry has almost continuously improved its energy efficiency over the past decades. In the near future, energy efficiency is potentially the most important and cost-effective means for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from industry. This paper discusses the potential contribution of industrial energy efficiency technologies and policies to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030.

  14. Organizational Diversity Climate: Review of Models and Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Goyal, Saumya; Shrivastava, Dr.Sangya

    2013-01-01

    As organizational climate represents the culture of an organization, similarly diversity climate represents the culture of diversity and inclusion of an organization. Every best practice in diversity management and diversity initiatives and programs are essentially implemented in order to improve the overall organizational diversity climate. Various models exist in literature which illustrates how diversity climate of a company impacts various employee and organizational measures. Over the ye...

  15. The Paris-Nairobi climate initiative. Access to clean energy for all in Africa and countries vulnerable to climate change. Access to energy, sustainable development and climate change; Initiative climat Paris-Nairobi. Acces aux energies propres en Afrique et dans les pays vulnerables au changement climatique. Livre-Blanc, Acces a l'energie, developpement durable et changements climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-04-21

    The first part of this report highlights the importance of a universal access to energy, the role of public policies and renewable energies, the need to implement sustainable economic models for energy services, and indicates the major objectives and essential actions for these purposes. The second part outlines the weakness of electricity production in Africa, the degradation of the energy mix balance, the vulnerability to climate change, and the fact that Africa, like other countries vulnerable to climate change, possess huge and unexploited renewable energy resources (biomass, hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind). The third part proposes an approach to energy services by developing sustainable cooking, supplying energy to support rural development and to poles of economic growth, by developing sustainable cities (notably in transports and buildings), and by developing national and regional electricity grids. The last part addresses the issue of energy financing in developing countries

  16. Assessment of the Effectiveness of Global Climate Policies Using Coupled Bottom-up and Top-down Models

    OpenAIRE

    Labriet, Maryse; Drouet, Laurent; Vielle, Marc; Loulou, Richard; Kanudia, Amit; Haurie, Alain

    2015-01-01

    In order to assess climate mitigation agreements, we propose an iterative procedure linking TIAM-WORLD, a global technology-rich optimization model, and GEMINI-E3, a global general equilibrium model. The coupling methodology combines the precise representation of energy and technology choices with a coherent representation of the macro-economic impacts, especially in terms of trade effects of climate policies on energy-intensive products. In climate mitigation scenarios, drastic technology br...

  17. Database of Low-e Storm Window Energy Performance across U.S. Climate Zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Culp, Thomas D.; Cort, Katherine A.

    2014-09-04

    This is an update of a report that describes process, assumptions, and modeling results produced Create a Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows. The scope of the overall effort is to develop a database of energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN model calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by cliamte zone.

  18. Supply of Renewable Energy Sources and the Cost of EU Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Boeters, Stefan; Koornneef, Joris

    2010-01-01

    What are the excess costs of a separate 20% target for renewable energy as a part of the EU climate policy for 2020? We answer this question using a computable general equilibrium model, WorldScan, which has been extended with a bottom-up module of the electricity sector. The model set-up makes it possible to directly use available estimates of costs and capacity potentials for renewable energy sources for calibration. In our base case simulation, the costs of EU climate policy with the renew...

  19. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  20. A transient stochastic weather generator incorporating climate model uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenis, Vassilis; Pinamonti, Valentina; Hall, Jim W.; Kilsby, Chris G.

    2015-11-01

    Stochastic weather generators (WGs), which provide long synthetic time series of weather variables such as rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET), have found widespread use in water resources modelling. When conditioned upon the changes in climatic statistics (change factors, CFs) predicted by climate models, WGs provide a useful tool for climate impacts assessment and adaption planning. The latest climate modelling exercises have involved large numbers of global and regional climate models integrations, designed to explore the implications of uncertainties in the climate model formulation and parameter settings: so called 'perturbed physics ensembles' (PPEs). In this paper we show how these climate model uncertainties can be propagated through to impact studies by testing multiple vectors of CFs, each vector derived from a different sample from a PPE. We combine this with a new methodology to parameterise the projected time-evolution of CFs. We demonstrate how, when conditioned upon these time-dependent CFs, an existing, well validated and widely used WG can be used to generate non-stationary simulations of future climate that are consistent with probabilistic outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre's Perturbed Physics Ensemble. The WG enables extensive sampling of natural variability and climate model uncertainty, providing the basis for development of robust water resources management strategies in the context of a non-stationary climate.

  1. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  2. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a cloud-enabled web-service system that empowers physics-based, multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks. The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the observational datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation, (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs, and (3) ECMWF reanalysis outputs for several environmental variables in order to supplement observational datasets. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, (4) the calculation of difference between two variables, and (5) the conditional sampling of one physical variable with respect to another variable. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use, avoiding the hassle of local software installation and environment incompatibility. CMDA will be used as an educational tool for the summer school organized by JPL's Center for Climate Science in 2014. In order to support 30+ simultaneous users during the school, we have deployed CMDA to the Amazon cloud environment. The cloud-enabled CMDA will provide each student with a virtual machine while the user interaction with the system will remain the same

  3. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  4. Risk benefits of climate-friendly energy supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the central goals of sustainable development is the reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This is needed in order to prevent the anticipated climate change, and the potentially serious consequences for human beings and the environment. Energy supply systems constitute the dominant contributors to GHG emissions. This paper examines three illustrative emission scenarios for world-wide energy supply in the 21st Century. These scenarios, including the associated GHG and major pollutant emissions, were chosen from a set established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using the emissions as a starting point, and based on recent findings concerning the impact on the environment and the financial costs resulting from global climate change on the one hand, and regional air pollution on the other hand, the present work provides estimates of the scenario-dependent, world-wide cumulative damage. The fossil-intensive reference scenario leads to overall damages which correspond to very substantial losses in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and which widely exceed the damages caused by the scenarios reflecting climate-friendly policies. Generally, the somewhat speculative estimates of the GHG-specific damages are much less significant than damages to human health and the environment caused by the major air pollutants. This means that the secondary benefits of climate-friendly, energy-supply options, i.e. those which avoid the impacts due to air pollution, alone justify strategies protecting the climate. (author)

  5. Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change-Progress and Challenges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases,(2) use of downscaling techniques (both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods)for "downscaling" the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and (3) use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales.Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.

  6. Opportunity knocks - the sustainable energy industry and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, B.; Keegan, P. [International Institute for Energy Conservation, Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Climate change mitigation, if intelligently undertaken, can stimulate economic growth. The main tools available for this task are energy efficiency, renewable energy, and clean energy technologies and services, which are collectively known as sustainable energy. To unleash this potential, the US and other governments need the full cooperation of the sustainable energy industry. This industry knows more than most other about turning energy-related pollution prevention into profits. If engaged, they can help: (1) Identify the economic benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation; (2) Identify barriers to the implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation projects; (3) Develop policies and measures to overcome these barriers; and (4) Implement greenhouse gas mitigation projects. 7 refs.

  7. Climate scenario of the Croatian energy sector development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Croatian energy sector is excessively dependent on oil and natural gas, and fossil fuels reserves are very modest. At the same time, unused renewable energy potentials are relatively high. Energy import is constantly increasing, and is already very much above the EU average, thus contributing to very high Croatian foreign trade deficit. Croatia has not yet ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which it will be bound to do in the framework of the accession to the EU. Therefore, this climate scenario of the Croatian Energy Sector Development Strategy is proposed. It underlines the enhancement of energy efficiency and accelerated development of renewable energies.(author)

  8. Nuclear Energy's Role in Mitigating Climate Change and Air Pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy experts expect energy demand to rise dramatically in the 21st century, especially in developing countries, where today, over one billion people have no access to modern energy services. Meeting global energy demand will require a 75% expansion in primary energy supply by 2050. If no steps are taken to reduce emissions, the energy-related CO2 emissions would nearly double in the same period. The increased levels of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere could raise average global temperatures 3oC or more above pre-industrial levels, which may trigger the dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, which the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change seeks to prevent.

  9. Climate information for the wind energy industry in the Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Davis, Melanie; Schmidt, Peter; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    Mediterranean Region as a tool for assessing the impact of changes in climate patterns on the energy output of wind power plants. Subsequently, we will give here a brief overview of these techniques as well as first results related to wind projections for different sites across the Mediterranean Region. We will highlight that regional climate models have a large potential for enhancing the quality of climate projections in the presence of complex orography and in the proximity of coastal areas.

  10. Linking Output from regional Climat Models with Cryosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, S.

    2003-04-01

    This study has the objective of linking the results of a low-resolution regional climate model (RCM) with high-resolution cryosphere models in order to determine the manner in which Alpine snow, ice and permafrost is likely to respond to enhanced atmospheric warming resulting from an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are several constraints that need to be overcome prior to applying solutions to this problem. Firstly, as a result of the long response time of glaciers and alpine permafrost to climate change, long-term simulations of at least 30 years are required. Secondly, the smallest possible spatial resolution of current RCM still remains quite coarse (~ 50 km) because of the complex mathematical equations to be resolved in the RCM, the limited computer performance and the above mentioned long simulation period. On the other hand, cryosphere models used in the present study require gridded input climate variables with a typical mesh width of 50 m. The proposed solution consists in combining climate change data based on RCM scenarios with meteorological data of high elevation Alpine stations measured during a reference period. A RCM control run matching this reference period is required in order to quantify the expected change for each climate parameter. This approach allows breaking down the initial downscaling problem into two separate steps. First, the quantified change derived from RCM-control and scenario simulations is used to predict change for meteorological stations. Second, data sets of predicted change and meteorological measures of these stations are summed and then regionalized for the study area based on advanced algorithms and GIS techniques. Selecting a case study area close to one or more meteorological stations should minimize the associated regionalization error. A pilot study for a small area at Piz Corvatsch in the Eastern Swiss Alps has been designed. The A2 scenario of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  11. 40% Whole-House Energy Savings in the Mixed-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baechler, Michael C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gilbride, T. L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hefty, M. G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cole, P. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Adams, K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Butner, R. S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ortiz, S. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Love, Pat M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2011-09-01

    This guide book is a resource to help builders design and construct highly energy-efficient homes, while addressing building durability, indoor air quality, and occupant health, safety, and comfort. With the measures described in this guide, builders in the mixed-humid climate can build homes that achieve whole house energy savings of 40% over the Building America benchmark (the 1993 Model Energy Code) with no added overall costs for consumers.

  12. 40% Whole-House Energy Savings in the Hot-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2011-09-01

    This guide book is a resource to help builders design and construct highly energy-efficient homes, while addressing building durability, indoor air quality, and occupant health, safety, and comfort. With the measures described in this guide, builders in the hot-humid climate can build homes that achieve whole house energy savings of 40% over the Building America benchmark (the 1993 Model Energy Code) with no added overall costs for consumers.

  13. Towards a science of climate and energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.; Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Dietz, Thomas

    2016-06-01

    The linked problems of energy sustainability and climate change are among the most complex and daunting facing humanity at the start of the twenty-first century. This joint Nature Energy and Nature Climate Change Collection illustrates how understanding and addressing these problems will require an integrated science of coupled human and natural systems; including technological systems, but also extending well beyond the domain of engineering or even economics. It demonstrates the value of replacing the stylized assumptions about human behaviour that are common in policy analysis, with ones based on data-driven science. We draw from and engage articles in the Collection to identify key contributions to understanding non-technological factors connecting economic activity and greenhouse gas emissions, describe a multi-dimensional space of human action on climate and energy issues, and illustrate key themes, dimensions and contributions towards fundamental understanding and informed decision making.

  14. Global energy economics and climate protection report 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crastan, Valentin

    2010-07-01

    The Global Energy Economics and Climate Protection Report 2009 compiles the essential indicators which are necessary to assess the climate evolution and protection. The report explains the most important facts and indicators, shows the data for all important regions of the world and comments on the data with a focus on the key players. As a result, the report provides with the important facts and the knowledge necessary to for a quantitative climate discussion. The Annex of the report gives a concise overview on the fundamentals of energy economy, a brief analysis of the global energy economy, and a table of the main CO{sub 2} emissions - sorted according to countries and sectors (Electricity, Fuel, Heating). (orig.)

  15. Nuclear energy and climate change; Energia nuclear y cambio climatico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Jimenez, A.

    2002-07-01

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO{sub 2} emissions. (Author)

  16. Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Marine Sulfur Biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deal, Clara [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States); Jin, Meibing [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States)

    2013-06-30

    Global climate models (GCMs) have not effectively considered how responses of arctic marine ecosystems to a warming climate will influence the global climate system. A key response of arctic marine ecosystems that may substantially influence energy exchange in the Arctic is a change in dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions, because DMS emissions influence cloud albedo. This response is closely tied to sea ice through its impacts on marine ecosystem carbon and sulfur cycling, and the ice-albedo feedback implicated in accelerated arctic warming. To reduce the uncertainty in predictions from coupled climate simulations, important model components of the climate system, such as feedbacks between arctic marine biogeochemistry and climate, need to be reasonably and realistically modeled. This research first involved model development to improve the representation of marine sulfur biogeochemistry simulations to understand/diagnose the control of sea-ice-related processes on the variability of DMS dynamics. This study will help build GCM predictions that quantify the relative current and possible future influences of arctic marine ecosystems on the global climate system. Our overall research objective was to improve arctic marine biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, now CESM). Working closely with the Climate Ocean Sea Ice Model (COSIM) team at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), we added 1 sea-ice algae and arctic DMS production and related biogeochemistry to the global Parallel Ocean Program model (POP) coupled to the LANL sea ice model (CICE). Both CICE and POP are core components of CESM. Our specific research objectives were: 1) Develop a state-of-the-art ice-ocean DMS model for application in climate models, using observations to constrain the most crucial parameters; 2) Improve the global marine sulfur model used in CESM by including DMS biogeochemistry in the Arctic; and 3) Assess how sea ice influences DMS dynamics in the arctic marine

  17. Enabling the use of climate model data in the Dutch climate effect community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten

    2010-05-01

    Within the climate effect community the usage of climate model data is emerging. Where mostly climate time series and weather generators were used, there is a shift to incorporate climate model data into climate effect models. The use of climate model data within the climate effect models is difficult, due to missing metadata, resolution and projection issues, data formats and availability of the parameters of interest. Often the climate effect modelers are not aware of available climate model data or are not aware of how they can use it. Together with seven other partners (CERFACS, CNR-IPSL, SMHI, INHGA, CMCC, WUR, MF-CNRM), KNMI is involved in the FP7 IS ENES (http://www.enes.org) project work package 10/JRA5 ‘Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community. The aims of this work package are to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. Phase one is to define use cases together with the Dutch climate effect community, which describe the intended use of climate model data in climate effect models. We defined four use cases: 1) FEWS hydrological Framework (Deltares) 2) METAPHOR, a plants and species dispersion model (Wageningen University) 3) Natuurplanner, an Ecological model suite (Wageningen University) 4) Land use models (Free University/JRC). Also the other partners in JRA5 have defined use cases, which are representative for the climate effect and impact communities in their country. Goal is to find commonalities between all defined use cases. The common functionality will be implemented as e-tools and incorporated in the IS-ENES data portal. Common issues relate to e.g., need for high resolution: downscaling from GCM to local scale (also involves interpolation); parameter selection; finding extremes; averaging methods. At the conference we will describe the FEWS case in more detail: Delft FEWS is an open shell system (in development since 1995) for performing

  18. Health and climate benefits of different energy-efficiency and renewable energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Luckow, Patrick; Norris, Gregory; Spengler, John D.; Biewald, Bruce; Fisher, Jeremy; Levy, Jonathan I.

    2016-01-01

    Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) can benefit public health and the climate by displacing emissions from fossil-fuelled electrical generating units (EGUs). Benefits can vary substantially by EE/RE installation type and location, due to differing electricity generation or savings by location, characteristics of the electrical grid and displaced power plants, along with population patterns. However, previous studies have not formally examined how these dimensions individually and jointly contribute to variability in benefits across locations or EE/RE types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a high-resolution model to simulate and compare the monetized public health and climate benefits of four different illustrative EE/RE installation types in six different locations within the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes of the United States. Annual benefits using central estimates for all pathways ranged from US$5.7-US$210 million (US$14-US$170 MWh-1), emphasizing the importance of site-specific information in accurately estimating public health and climate benefits of EE/RE efforts.

  19. Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Steffens

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses.

  20. Climate-induced hotspots in surface energy fluxes from 1948 to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Understanding how land surfaces respond to climate change requires knowledge of land-surface processes, which control the degree to which interannual variability and mean trends in climatic variables affect the surface energy budget. We use the latest version of the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), which is driven by the latest updated hybrid reanalysis-observation atmospheric forcing dataset constructed by Princeton University, to obtain global distributions of the surface energy budget from 1948 to 2000. We identify climate change hotspots and surface energy flux hotspots from 1948 to 2000. Surface energy flux hotspots, which reflect regions with strong changes in surface energy fluxes, reveal seasonal variations with strong signals in winter, spring, and autumn and weak ones in summer. Locations for surface energy flux hotspots are not, however, fully linked with those for climate change hotspots, suggesting that only in some regions are land surfaces more responsive to climate change in terms of interannual variability and mean trends.

  1. The Accountability of European Renewable Energy and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper considers the question of what might happen if in 2015 and 2020 it appears that European renewable energy and climate policy targets have not been met. More specifically, CE Delft has examined (1) the degree to which the various energy and climate targets are 'firm' in the sense that they bring about accountable result obligations for member states that are binding, (2) the risks affecting the probability of the targets not being met, (3) the penalties the European Commission might demand if the targets are not met, and (4) the likely deterrent effect of such penalties.

  2. Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Morgan R.; Trancik, Jessika E.

    2014-05-01

    Energy technologies emit greenhouse gases with differing radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Standard practice for evaluating technologies, which uses the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the integrated radiative forcing of emitted gases over a fixed time horizon, does not acknowledge the importance of a changing background climate relative to climate change mitigation targets. Here we demonstrate that the GWP misvalues the impact of CH4-emitting technologies as mid-century approaches, and we propose a new class of metrics to evaluate technologies based on their time of use. The instantaneous climate impact (ICI) compares gases in an expected radiative forcing stabilization year, and the cumulative climate impact (CCI) compares their time-integrated radiative forcing up to a stabilization year. Using these dynamic metrics, we quantify the climate impacts of technologies and show that high-CH4-emitting energy sources become less advantageous over time. The impact of natural gas for transportation, with CH4 leakage, exceeds that of gasoline within 1-2 decades for a commonly cited 3 W m-2 stabilization target. The impact of algae biodiesel overtakes that of corn ethanol within 2-3 decades, where algae co-products are used to produce biogas and corn co-products are used for animal feed. The proposed metrics capture the changing importance of CH4 emissions as a climate threshold is approached, thereby addressing a major shortcoming of the GWP for technology evaluation.

  3. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  4. NGSS, Climate & Energy: Teaching About Climate Change Without Teaching About Energy Is Like Teaching About Lung Cancer Without Teaching About Smoking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan-Haas, D.

    2013-12-01

    reliance largely on fossil fuels, through the lens of the crosscutting concepts: 1. Patterns. 2. Cause and effect: Mechanism and explanation.3. Scale, proportion, and quantity.4. Systems and system models. 5. Energy and matter. 6. Structure and function. 7. Stability and change. And, we will connect to other resources and strategies for effectively addressing climate and energy in the context of NGSS. The Geography of Energy: an excerpt of a map showing electric power net generation by source for the Northeast.

  5. Climate Modeling with a Million CPUs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobis, M.; Jackson, C. S.

    2010-12-01

    Michael Tobis, Ph.D. Research Scientist Associate University of Texas Institute for Geophysics Charles S. Jackson Research Scientist University of Texas Institute for Geophysics Meteorological, oceanographic, and climatological applications have been at the forefront of scientific computing since its inception. The trend toward ever larger and more capable computing installations is unabated. However, much of the increase in capacity is accompanied by an increase in parallelism and a concomitant increase in complexity. An increase of at least four additional orders of magnitude in the computational power of scientific platforms is anticipated. It is unclear how individual climate simulations can continue to make effective use of the largest platforms. Conversion of existing community codes to higher resolution, or to more complex phenomenology, or both, presents daunting design and validation challenges. Our alternative approach is to use the expected resources to run very large ensembles of simulations of modest size, rather than to await the emergence of very large simulations. We are already doing this in exploring the parameter space of existing models using the Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing algorithm, which was developed for seismic imaging. Our experiments have the dual intentions of tuning the model and identifying ranges of parameter uncertainty. Our approach is less strongly constrained by the dimensionality of the parameter space than are competing methods. Nevertheless, scaling up remains costly. Much could be achieved by increasing the dimensionality of the search and adding complexity to the search algorithms. Such ensemble approaches scale naturally to very large platforms. Extensions of the approach are anticipated. For example, structurally different models can be tuned to comparable effectiveness. This can provide an objective test for which there is no realistic precedent with smaller computations. We find ourselves inventing new code to

  6. Usage of web-GIS platform Climate to prepare specialists in climate changes modeling and analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2014-05-01

    A web-GIS based platform "Climate" developed in our institute (http://climate.scert.ru/) has a set of tools and data bases to perform climate changes analysis on the selected territory. The platform is functioning and open for registration and all these tools are available. Besides that the platform has a potential to be used in education. It contains several educational courses followed by tests and trainings which are performed within the platform "Climate" using its web-gis tools. The main purpose of a new "Climatic and environmental modeling" module course is to enable students and graduates meteorological departments to improve their knowledge and skills in modern climatology. Although the emphasis is on climate science, the course is directly related to the part of the ecological science, which refers to the environment. This is due to the fact that the current global climate models have become models of the Earth system and include models of environment as well. The module includes a main course of lectures devoted to basic aspects of modern climatology , including analysis of the current climate change and its possible consequences , a special course on geophysical hydrodynamics, several on-line computing labs dedicated to specific monitoring and modeling of climate and climate change , as well as information kit , which not only includes the usual list of recommended reading, but also contains the files of many publications , the distribution of which is not limited by copyright law. Laboratory exercises are designed to consolidate students' knowledge of discipline, to instill in them the skills to work independently with large amounts of geophysical data using modern processing and analysis tools of web-GIS platform "Climate". The results obtained on laboratory work are presented as reports with the statement of the problem, the results of calculations and logically justified conclusion. Now the following labs are used to train and prepare young

  7. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Gao, X.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections (using different climate policies), the climate system response (represented by different values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing), natural variability (by perturbing initial conditions) and structural uncertainty (using different climate models). The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an intermediate complexity earth system model (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the United States is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Secondly, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that uncertainty in temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to precipitation changes, with natural variability having a large impact in the first part of the 21st century. Overall, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty in future projections of climate change over the United States. In light of these results, we recommend that when investigating climate change impacts over specific regions, studies consider all four sources of uncertainty analyzed in this paper.

  8. Predictive modelling of climate suitability for Pinus halepensis in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Gastón González, Aitor; Garcia Viñas, Juan Ignacio

    2010-01-01

    The response of Mediterranean pine species distribution to global change is a key feature of forest management in a changing environment. Climate suitability models are valuable tools for understanding and anticipating the effects of climate change on species distributions. Logistic regression was used to model climate suitability for Pinus halepensis in Spain, using National Forest Inventory as training sample. Predictive performance was evaluated using ICP Forests Level I grid as independen...

  9. A validated physical model of greenhouse climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the greenhouse model the momentaneous environmental crop growth factors are calculated as output, together with the physical behaviour of the crop. The boundary conditions for this model are the outside weather conditions; other inputs are the physical characteristics of the crop, of the greenhouse and of the control system. The greenhouse model is based on the energy, water vapour and CO2 balances of the crop-greenhouse system. While the emphasis is on the dynamic behaviour of the greenhouse for implementation in continuous optimization, the state variables temperature, water vapour pressure and carbondioxide concentration in the relevant greenhouse parts crop, air, soil and cover are calculated from the balances over these parts. To do this in a proper way, the physical exchange processes between the system parts have to be quantified first. Therefore the greenhouse model is constructed from submodels describing these processes: a. Radiation transmission model for the modification of the outside to the inside global radiation. b. Ventilation model to describe the ventilation exchange between greenhouse and outside air. c. The description of the exchange of energy and mass between the crop and the greenhouse air. d. Calculation of the thermal radiation exchange between the various greenhouse parts. e. Quantification of the convective exchange processes between the greenhouse air and respectively the cover, the heating pipes and the soil surface and between the cover and the outside air. f. Determination of the heat conduction in the soil. The various submodels are validated first and then the complete greenhouse model is verified

  10. Report of a Policy Forum: Weather, Climate, and Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-07-01

    The report of a policy forum on Weather, Climate, and Energy presents findings and recommendations that, if implemented, could position the energy sector, the providers of weather and climate science and services, and energy consumers to mange more cooperatively and effectively the production, distribution, and consumption of electrical power and fossil fuels. Recent U.S. experience with a series of energy shortages encouraged the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program to join with the University of Oklahoma in the development of a forum to address the issues connected with responding to those shortages. Nearly 100 representatives from the public, private, and academic portions of the energy production sector, the meteorological community, political and corporate leaders, weather risk management analysts, and policy makers met on October 16-17, 2001 to discuss these policy issues.

  11. The MARKAL-MACRO model and the climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1996-07-01

    MARKAL-MACRO and its extensions is a model appropriate to study partial and general equilibrium in the energy markets and the implications of the carbon dioxide mitigation policy. The main advantage of MM is the explicit treatment of energy demand, supply and conversion technologies, including emission control and conservation options, within a general equilibrium framework. The famous gap between top-down and bottom-up models is resolved and the economic implications of environmental and supply policy constraints can be captured either in an aggregated (Macro) or in a sectorial (Micro) level. The multi-regional trade version of the model allows to study questions related to efficient and equitable allocation of cost and benefits associated with the climate change issue. Finally, the stochastic version of the model allows to assess policies related to uncertain and even catastrophic effects and define appropriate hedging strategies. The report is divided in three parts: - the first part gives an overview of the new model structure. It describes its macro economic part and explains its calibration, - the second part refers to the model applications for Switzerland when analyzing the economic implications of curbing CO{sub 2} emissions or policies related to the introduction of a carbon tax, including a hedging strategy, - the last part is organized in form of Appendices and gives a mathematical description and some potential extensions of the model. It describes also a sensitivity analysis done with MARKAL-MACRO in 1992. (author) figs., tabs., refs.

  12. The MARKAL-MACRO model and the climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MARKAL-MACRO and its extensions is a model appropriate to study partial and general equilibrium in the energy markets and the implications of the carbon dioxide mitigation policy. The main advantage of MM is the explicit treatment of energy demand, supply and conversion technologies, including emission control and conservation options, within a general equilibrium framework. The famous gap between top-down and bottom-up models is resolved and the economic implications of environmental and supply policy constraints can be captured either in an aggregated (Macro) or in a sectorial (Micro) level. The multi-regional trade version of the model allows to study questions related to efficient and equitable allocation of cost and benefits associated with the climate change issue. Finally, the stochastic version of the model allows to assess policies related to uncertain and even catastrophic effects and define appropriate hedging strategies. The report is divided in three parts: - the first part gives an overview of the new model structure. It describes its macro economic part and explains its calibration, - the second part refers to the model applications for Switzerland when analyzing the economic implications of curbing CO2 emissions or policies related to the introduction of a carbon tax, including a hedging strategy, - the last part is organized in form of Appendices and gives a mathematical description and some potential extensions of the model. It describes also a sensitivity analysis done with MARKAL-MACRO in 1992. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  13. The nuclear energy in debate. Myths, realities and climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study argues myths and the truths that involve nuclear energy: on the one hand, the universal issue on the nuclear energy and its supposed contribution for the global warming reduction, and another one, there are many lower-risk options available to fight against climate change. Investing in nuclear energy carries not only considerable health, financial and security risks, it may also prove to be a dangerous lock-in and dead end. Twenty years after the nuclear disaster of Chernobyl, any attempts by the nuclear industry to celebrate its revival and to paint itself as the solution to climate change should be rejected. Policy makers around the world should learn from its people, who largely resist the use of nuclear energy. In this context the authors firmly believe that nuclear energy is no answer to climate change. A short-sighted renaissance of nuclear energy would require considerable amounts of public money, which should rather be invested in the development and deployment of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency measures

  14. An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Tongwen; WU Fanghua; LIU Yiming; ZHANG Fang; SHI Xueli; CHU Min; ZHANG Jie; FANG Yongjie; WANG Fang; LU Yixiong; LIU Xiangwen; SONG Lianchun; WEI Min; LIU Qianxia; ZHOU Wenyan; DONG Min; ZHAO Qigeng; JI Jinjun; Laurent LI; ZHOU Mingyu; LI Weiping; WANG Zaizhi; ZHANG Hua; XIN Xiaoge; ZHANG Yanwu; ZHANG Li; LI Jianglong

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125◦×2.8125◦) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125◦×1.125◦). Both versions are fully cou-pled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase fi ve (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate pro jections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and pro jections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses in-dicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

  15. The importance of reliable climatic data in the energy evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the last few years, more and more attention has been focused on energy issues, as it is pointed out, for example, by the Directive 2002/91/EC on the Energy Performance of Buildings and Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. However, in order to do that, reliable tools for technicians to design systems for such topics should be provided. Nowadays, several software are available; the weak point is the availability of reliable climatic data and, above all, the ones referring to solar radiation. In this work, after a short overview of the world climatic databases, a description of three statistical methods for the elaboration of a climatic reduced set of data is reported. Then, referring to the climatic station of Palermo, Italy, we build three different sets of data utilizing the three statistical methods and compare these sets of data by means of two applications, namely the energy consumption of a simple building and the energy produced by a photovoltaic (PV) system.

  16. Building synergies between climate change mitigation and energy poverty alleviation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Even though energy poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation are inextricably linked policy goals, they have remained as relatively disconnected fields of research inquiry and policy development. Acknowledging this gap, this paper explores the mainstream academic and policy literatures to provide a taxonomy of interactions and identify synergies and trade-offs between them. The most important trade-off identified is the potential increase in energy poverty levels as a result of strong climate change action if the internalisation of the external costs of carbon emissions is not offset by efficiency gains. The most significant synergy was found in deep energy efficiency in buildings. The paper argues that neither of the two problems – deep reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, and energy poverty eradication – is likely to be solved fully on their own merit, while joining the two policy goals may provide a very solid case for deep efficiency improvements. Thus, the paper calls for a strong integration of these two policy goals (plus other key related benefits like energy security or employment), in order to provide sufficient policy motivation to mobilise a wide-scale implementation of deep energy efficiency standards. - Highlights: ► A taxonomy of interactions between climate change and energy poverty is offered. ► Energy poverty levels may increase as a result of strong climate change action. ► However, strong synergies are offered by deep improvements of energy efficiency. ► Access to modern energy carriers is a key requirement in developing countries. ► Sufficiently solving both problems requires the integration of policy goals.

  17. The Challenges and Potential of Nuclear Energy for Addressing Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The response to climate change and the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has major implications for the global energy system. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations requires a peak and an indefinite decline of global CO2 emissions. Nuclear energy, along with other technologies, has the potential to contribute to the growing demand for energy without emitting CO2. Nuclear energy is of particular interest because of its global prevalence and its current significant contribution, nearly 20%, to the world's electricity supply. We have investigated the value of nuclear energy in addressing climate change, and have explored the potential challenges for the rapid and large-scale expansion of nuclear energy as a response to climate change. The scope of this study is long-term and the modeling time frame extends out a century because the nature of nuclear energy and climate change dictate that perspective. Our results indicate that the value of the nuclear technology option for addressing climate change is denominated in trillions of dollars. Several-fold increases to the value of the nuclear option can be expected if there is limited availability of competing carbon-free technologies, particularly fossil-fuel based technologies that can capture and sequester carbon. Challenges for the expanded global use of nuclear energy include the global capacity for nuclear construction, proliferation, uranium availability, and waste disposal. While the economic costs of nuclear fuel and power are important, non-economic issues transcend the issues of costs. In this regard, advanced nuclear technologies and new vision for the global use of nuclear energy are important considerations for the future of nuclear power and climate change.

  18. The Challenges and Potential of Nuclear Energy for Addressing Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Son H.; Edmonds, James A.

    2007-10-24

    The response to climate change and the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has major implications for the global energy system. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations requires a peak and an indefinite decline of global CO2 emissions. Nuclear energy, along with other technologies, has the potential to contribute to the growing demand for energy without emitting CO2. Nuclear energy is of particular interest because of its global prevalence and its current significant contribution, nearly 20%, to the world’s electricity supply. We have investigated the value of nuclear energy in addressing climate change, and have explored the potential challenges for the rapid and large-scale expansion of nuclear energy as a response to climate change. The scope of this study is long-term and the modeling time frame extends out a century because the nature of nuclear energy and climate change dictate that perspective. Our results indicate that the value of the nuclear technology option for addressing climate change is denominated in trillions of dollars. Several-fold increases to the value of the nuclear option can be expected if there is limited availability of competing carbon-free technologies, particularly fossil-fuel based technologies that can capture and sequester carbon. Challenges for the expanded global use of nuclear energy include the global capacity for nuclear construction, proliferation, uranium availability, and waste disposal. While the economic costs of nuclear fuel and power are important, non-economic issues transcend the issues of costs. In this regard, advanced nuclear technologies and new vision for the global use of nuclear energy are important considerations for the future of nuclear power and climate change.

  19. Global climate models: Past, present, and future

    OpenAIRE

    Stute, Martin; Clement, Amy; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2001-01-01

    One of the main features of climate spectra is their redness which originates from stochastic mechanisms (see e.g. the time scale arguments of Hasselmann, 1976). The variance increases toward the longer time scales and is limited by the negative feedback mechanisms in the climate system. Apart from this there is climate variability at distinct time scales due to external forcing (e.g. Milankowitch cycles), or internal oscillations (e.g. ENSO, decadal oscillations). The understanding of long-t...

  20. THE REGRESSION MODEL OF IRAN LIBRARIES ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Yaminfirooz, Mousa; Siamian, Hasan

    2015-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to drawing a regression model of organizational climate of central libraries of Iran’s universities. Methods: This study is an applied research. The statistical population of this study consisted of 96 employees of the central libraries of Iran’s public universities selected among the 117 universities affiliated to the Ministry of Health by Stratified Sampling method (510 people). Climate Qual localized questionnaire was used as research tools. For predicting the organizational climate pattern of the libraries is used from the multivariate linear regression and track diagram. Results: of the 9 variables affecting organizational climate, 5 variables of innovation, teamwork, customer service, psychological safety and deep diversity play a major role in prediction of the organizational climate of Iran’s libraries. The results also indicate that each of these variables with different coefficient have the power to predict organizational climate but the climate score of psychological safety (0.94) plays a very crucial role in predicting the organizational climate. Track diagram showed that five variables of teamwork, customer service, psychological safety, deep diversity and innovation directly effects on the organizational climate variable that contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables. Conclusions: Of the indicator of the organizational climate of climateQual, the contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables that reinforcement of teamwork in academic libraries can be more effective in improving the organizational climate of this type libraries. PMID:26622203

  1. The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagoo, Navjit; Valdes, Paul; Flecker, Rachel; Gregoire, Lauren J

    2013-10-28

    Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4. PMID:24043872

  2. Resource rents: The effects of energy taxes and quantity instruments for climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbon dioxide emissions correspond to fossil resource use. When considering this supply side of climate protection, crucial questions come to fore. It seems likely that owners of fossil resources would object to emission reductions. Moreover, policy instruments such as taxes may not be effective at all: it seems individually rational to leave no fossil resources unused. In this context, it can be expected that economic sectors will react strategically to climate policy, aiming at a re-distribution of rents. To address these questions, we investigate the effectiveness, efficiency, and resource rents for energy taxes, resource taxes, and quantity rationing of emissions. The analysis is based on a game theoretic growth model with explicit factor markets and policy instruments. Market equilibrium depends on a government that acts as a Stackelberg leader with a climate protection goal. We find that resource taxes and quantity rationing achieve this objective efficiently, energy taxation is only second-best. The use of quantity rationing to achieve climate protection generates substantial rents for resource owners. - Highlights: ► Resource taxes and quantity rationing (carbon budgets) are efficient. ► Carbon budgets increase resource rents, while taxes decrease rents. ► Resource owners may support climate protection. ► Climate protection introduces a climate rent.

  3. Storm Water Management Model Climate Adjustment Tool (SWMM-CAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA’s newest tool, the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) – Climate Adjustment Tool (CAT) is meant to help municipal stormwater utilities better address potential climate change impacts affecting their operations. SWMM, first released in 1971, models hydrology and hydrauli...

  4. Arctic Climate Change Analysed By Two 30-year Scenario Regional Climate Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiilsholm, S.; Christensen, J. H.

    High-resolution climate change simulations for an area covering the entire Arctic have been conducted with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM. The emission sce- narios used were the IPCC SRES1 marker scenarios A2 and B2. Three 30-year time slice experiments were conducted with HIRHAM for periods representing present-day (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100) in the two scenarios. Changes of the climate between these two periods will be presented with special emphasize on the climate of Greenland.

  5. Climate, air and energy - Issue 2014. Key figures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having recalled international objectives (Kyoto protocol), European objectives (directives related to energy efficiency and renewable energies, greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation, air quality, wastes) and French national (plans, laws) and sector-based objectives (for buildings, transports, agriculture, renewable energies, industry, office building and local communities, air quality), this publication presents and comments numerous tables and graphs of data and indicators (and of their evolution) regarding energy consumptions and intensities (primary and final energy), greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, emissions of pollutants and air quality in France and in European countries, but also the implementation of various plans and tools (Agenda 21 for example), the creation of specific public bodies, jobs and markets related to renewable energies in France. The other chapters propose detailed data related to energy consumption or production, energy efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, and so on for different sectors: housing, tertiary sector, transport, industry, agriculture and forest, renewable energies and heat networks, wastes, individuals

  6. Assessment of China's climate commitment and non-fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid AIM/CGE model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dai, Hancheng, E-mail: dai.h.aa@m.titech.ac.j [Department of Social Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8550 (Japan); Masui, Toshihiko, E-mail: masui@nies.go.j [Department of Social Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8550 (Japan); Social and Environmental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba-City, Ibaraki 305-8506 (Japan); Matsuoka, Yuzuru, E-mail: matsuoka@env.kyoto-u.ac.j [Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto-Daigaku Katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8530 (Japan); Fujimori, Shinichiro, E-mail: fujimori.shinichiro@nies.go.j [Social and Environmental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba-City, Ibaraki 305-8506 (Japan)

    2011-05-15

    China made a commitment in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP from 40% to 45% compared with the 2005 level by 2020, and is determined to vigorously develop non-fossil fuels. This study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments with a hybrid static CGE model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated into 12 generation technologies. Four scenarios are developed, including the reference scenario A, the reference scenario B and two carbon constraint scenarios. The results show that carbon intensity in terms of GDP will fall by 30.97% between 2005 and 2020 in the reference scenario A, and will be reduced further by 7.97% if China's targeted non-fossil energy development plans can be achieved in the reference scenario B. However, the rest of the 40-45% target must be realized by other measures such as carbon constraint. It is also observed that due to carbon intensity constraints, GDP loss would be from 0.032% to 0.24% compared to the reference scenario B, and CO{sub 2} emission reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in the electricity sector and manufacturing sector. - Research highlights: {yields} The effects of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments are analyzed. {yields} Twelve generation technologies are included in electricity sector. {yields} China's energy demand and CO{sub 2} emissions in 2020 are presented. {yields} Impacts of CO{sub 2} emission reduction on China's economy are studied.

  7. Extreme precipitation and climate gradients in Patagonia revealed by high-resolution regional atmospheric climate modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Wessem, J.M.; van de Berg, W.J.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L.H.; Schaefer, M.

    2014-01-01

    This study uses output of a high-resolution (5.5 km) regional atmospheric climate model to describe the present-day (1979–2012) climate of Patagonia, with a particular focus on the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Patagonian ice fields. Through a comparison with available in situ observations, it i

  8. Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ľ.; Beranová, R.; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14. ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014

  9. Teaching about Climate Change and Energy with Online Materials and Workshops from On the Cutting Edge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, K. B.; Manduca, C. A.; Myers, J. D.; Loxsom, F.

    2009-12-01

    -playing, inquiry-based learning via online data sets, and the use of computer models. The website houses course descriptions and syllabi for both introductory-level and upper-level climate courses contributed by faculty. Collections of climate visualizations and recommended references help faculty navigate to online materials that are best suited for their classroom. The On the Cutting Edge program features a biennial workshop series about teaching climate change, held in conjunction with the American Quaternary Association. Presentations, teaching ideas and references from the 2006 and 2008 workshops are available, along with applications for the upcoming workshop to be held in August 2010. All of these materials can be found at http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/energy and http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/climatechange. Faculty are encouraged to submit their own teaching materials to the web collections via on-line forms for submitting information and uploading files.

  10. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.

    2014-10-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  11. The nuclear energy like an option in Mexico before the climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current energy poverty, the future necessities of energy and the climatic change caused by the global warming, are factors that associates each, manifest with more clarity the unsustainable production way and energy consumption that demands the society in the current life. This work analyzes the nuclear energy generation like an alternative from the environmental view point that ties with the sustainable development and the formulation of energy use models that require the countries at global level. With this purpose were collected and reviewed documented data of the energy resources, current and future energy consumption and the international commitments of Mexico regarding to greenhouse gases reduction. For Mexico two implementation scenarios of nuclear reactors type BWR and A BWR were analyzed, in compliance with the goals and policy development established in the National Strategy of Climatic Change and the National Strategy of Energy; the scenarios were analyzed through the emissions to the air of CO2, (main gas of greenhouse effect) which avoids when the energy production is obtained by nuclear reactors instead of consumptions of traditional fuels, such as coal, diesel, natural gas and fuel oil. The obtained results reflect that the avoided emissions contribute from 4.2% until 40% to the national goal that Mexico has committed to the international community through the Convention Marco of the United Nations against the Climatic Change (CMNUCC). These results recommends to the nuclear energy like a sustainable energy solution on specific and current conditions for Mexico. (Author)

  12. Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

  13. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  14. Integrated energy and climate program without nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under the German EU Council presidency, the European Union adopted an ambitious climate protection program in spring this year which has consequences for the entire energy sector. A fair system of burden sharing is currently being sought on the level of the European Union. However, the German federal government does not wait for that agreement to be reached, but has added to the clearcut EU plans in order to achieve more climate protection. At the closed meeting of the federal cabinet in Meseberg on August 23-24, 2007, the key points of an integrated energy and climate program were adopted. The unprecedented set of measures comprises 30 points. In many cases, legal measures are required for implementation, which implies a heavy workload facing the federal government and parliament. A major step forward is seen in the federal government's intention to preserve the international competitiveness of the producing sector and energy-intensive industries also under changed framework conditions. The imperative guiding principle must be that care should take precedence over speed. European or worldwide solutions must be found for all measures, be it energy efficiency or climate protection, and all countries must be involved because, otherwise, specific measures taken by individual states will be ineffective. (orig.)

  15. Repositioning urban governments? Energy efficiency and Australia’s changing climate and energy governance regimes.

    OpenAIRE

    McGuirk, Pauline; Dowling, Robyn; Bulkeley, Harriet

    2014-01-01

    Urban local governments are important players in climate governance, and their roles are evolving. This review traces the changing nexus of Australia’s climate policy, energy policy and energy efficiency imperatives and its repositioning of urban local governments. We characterise the ways urban local governments’ capacities and capabilities are being mobilised in light of a changing multi-level political opportunity structure around energy efficiency. The shifts we observe not only extend lo...

  16. Energy Savings of Low-E Storm Windows and Panels across US Climate Zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Culp, Thomas D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cort, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report builds off of previous modeling work related to low-e storm windows used to create a "Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows." This work updates similar studies using new fuel costs and examining the separate contributions of reduced air leakage and reduced coefficients of overall heat transfer and solar heat gain. In this report we examine the energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates, excluding the impact from infiltration reductions, which tend to vary using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN model calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by climate zone.

  17. Climatization, energy and design in rural housing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Work analyzes the possibilities to influence in the energy inputs of the air conditioning in the rural housing through architectonic project decisions. It presents a methodology to guide the first project decisions and to evaluate the future of the housing behavior

  18. Modeling climate change impact in hospitality sector, using building resources consumption signature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Armando; Bernardino, Mariana; Silva Santos, António; Pimpão Silva, Álvaro; Espírito Santo, Fátima

    2016-04-01

    Hotels are one of building types that consumes more energy and water per person and are vulnerable to climate change because in the occurrence of extreme events (heat waves, water stress) same failures could compromise the hotel services (comfort) and increase energy cost or compromise the landscape and amenities due to water use restrictions. Climate impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies require the knowledge about critical climatic variables and also the behaviour of building. To study the risk and vulnerability of buildings and hotels to climate change regarding resources consumption (energy and water), previous studies used building energy modelling simulation (BEMS) tools to study the variation in energy and water consumption. In general, the climate change impact in building is evaluated studying the energy and water demand of the building for future climate scenarios. But, hotels are complex buildings, quite different from each other and assumption done in simplified BEMS aren't calibrated and usually neglect some important hotel features leading to projected estimates that do not usually match hotel sector understanding and practice. Taking account all uncertainties, the use of building signature (statistical method) could be helpful to assess, in a more clear way, the impact of Climate Change in the hospitality sector and using a broad sample. Statistical analysis of the global energy consumption obtained from bills shows that the energy consumption may be predicted within 90% confidence interval only with the outdoor temperature. In this article a simplified methodology is presented and applied to identify the climate change impact in hospitality sector using the building energy and water signature. This methodology is applied to sixteen hotels (nine in Lisbon and seven in Algarve) with four and five stars rating. The results show that is expect an increase in water and electricity consumption (manly due to the increase in

  19. Enhancements to modeling regional climate response and global variability; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efforts during this grant period focused on three main considerations: (a) developing and testing various climate scenarios with SEAM, a newly created model (b) model reconstruction efforts to speed up computations and (c) optimum realization statistics

  20. Modeling key processes causing climate change and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriksson, S.

    2013-09-01

    Greenhouse gas warming, internal climate variability and aerosol climate effects are studied and the importance to understand these key processes and being able to separate their influence on the climate is discussed. Aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM and the COSMOS millennium model consisting of atmospheric, ocean and carbon cycle and land-use models are applied and results compared to measurements. Topics at focus are climate sensitivity, quasiperiodic variability with a period of 50-80 years and variability at other timescales, climate effects due to aerosols over India and climate effects of northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The main findings of this work are (1) pointing out the remaining challenges in reducing climate sensitivity uncertainty from observational evidence, (2) estimates for the amplitude of a 50-80 year quasiperiodic oscillation in global mean temperature ranging from 0.03 K to 0.17 K and for its phase progression as well as the synchronising effect of external forcing, (3) identifying a power law shape S(f) {proportional_to} f-{alpha} for the spectrum of global mean temperature with {alpha} {approx} 0.8 between multidecadal and El Nino timescales with a smaller exponent in modelled climate without external forcing, (4) separating aerosol properties and climate effects in India by season and location (5) the more efficient dispersion of secondary sulfate aerosols than primary carbonaceous aerosols in the simulations, (6) an increase in monsoon rainfall in northern India due to aerosol light absorption and a probably larger decrease due to aerosol dimming effects and (7) an estimate of mean maximum cooling of 0.19 K due to larger northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The results could be applied or useful in better isolating the human-caused climate change signal, in studying the processes further and in more detail, in decadal climate prediction, in model evaluation and in emission policy

  1. Warming impact on energy use of HVAC system in buildings of different thermal qualities and in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Improving TQBE reduces heating load, while it might increase cooling load. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC varies from one climate to another. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC depends on building’s thermal quality. • In mild climate, warming does not have a significant impact on energy use of HVAC. - Abstract: In order to combat climate change, energy use in the building must be further reduced. Heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in residential buildings account for considerable fraction of global energy consumption. The potential contribution the domestic sector can make in reducing energy consumption is recognized worldwide. The driving energy of HVACs depends on the thermal quality of the building envelope (TQBE) and outside temperature. Definitely, building regulations are changing with the time toward reduce the thermal loads of buildings. However, most of the existing residential buildings were built to lower TQBE. For instant, 72% of residential dwellings in the 15-EU were built before 1972. To investigate the impact of warming on driving energy of HVACs of a residential building a computer model was developed. Three climate categories/cities were considered, i.e. Stockholm (cold), Istanbul (mild), and Doha (hot). In each city, two buildings were modeled: one was assumed to be built according to the current local buildings regulations (standard TQBE), while the anther was built to lower TQBE. The simulations were run for present and future (in 2050) outdoor designing conditions. The calculations show that the impact of the warming on annual driving energy of HVACs (reduction or increase) depends very much on the climate category and on the TQBE. Based on the climate and TQBE, the change in annual HVACs energy varies from −7.4% (in cold climate) to 12.7% (in hot climate). In mild climate, it was shown that the warming does not have significant impact on annual HVACs energy. Improving the TQBE can

  2. Energy efficient climate control for cut flower alstroemeria

    OpenAIRE

    Labrie, C.W.; Zwart, de, H.F.

    2012-01-01

    Like in most countries, in the Netherlands energy consumption is an increasing cost component. In cut flowers grown at a relatively low temperature, most of the energy is used for dehumidification. In Alstroemeria dehumidification is especially important to prevent the physiological disorder expressed as necrotic leaf tips. Research has been carried out showing that improved climate control can save 37% on heating, without a reduction on yield and even a quality, compared to a contemporary re...

  3. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can't yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes

  4. Opinion survey on energy and climate in 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This comment of the results of an opinion survey on energy and climate highlights the positive opinion of French people on wind energy (for all ages, income levels, and location types). Perceived benefits and drawbacks of wind energy have been ranked. The survey also addressed the concern with environmental print and with the limitation of energy consumption. Options aimed at reducing energy dependence and main gestures in every day's life aimed at reducing consumption have also been ranked among surveyed people. Electric and hybrid motor cars appear to be very attractive. The evolution of the opinion on nuclear energy since January 1994 is briefly discussed (people had been asked whether nuclear energy had rather benefits or drawbacks). It appears that French people are now less reluctant than before. Some drawbacks of nuclear energy are ranked and a graph indicates the evolution of this ranking since January 2010. The survey finally addresses the issue of tariff increase in relationship with phasing out nuclear

  5. Energy supply options for climate change mitigation and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobran, Flavio

    2010-09-15

    Modern society is dependent on fossil fuels for its energy needs, but their combustion is producing emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. If these emissions remain unconstrained they risk of producing significant impacts on humanity and ecosystems. Replacement of fossil fuels with alternative energy sources can stabilize anthropogenic global warming and thus reduce the climate change impacts. The deployment of alternative energy supply technologies should be based on objectives that are consistent with sustainability indicators and incorporate quantitative risk assessment multiattribute utility decision methodologies capable of ascertaining effective future energy supply options.

  6. Modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fishery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes in climate affect agriculture, forest and fisheries. This paper examines the climate change impact on crop production, fishery and forestry using state - of - the - art modeling technique. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh. Historical climate change scenario has little or no negative impacts on rice and wheat yields in Mymensingh and Dinajpur but IPCC climate change scenario has higher negative impacts. There is almost no change in the yields of maize for the historical climate change scenario in the Chittagong, Hill Tracts of but there is a small decrease in the yields of rice and maize for IPCC climate change scenario. A new statistical model to forecast climate change impacts on fishery in the world oceans has been developed. Total climate change impact on fishery in the Indian Ocean is negative and the predictor power is 94.14% for eastern part and 98.59% for the western part. Two models are presented for the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. To bole volumes of the pioneer, intermediate and climax are simulated for three different logging strategies and the results have been discussed in this paper. (author)

  7. Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.

    2014-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

  8. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

    2016-04-01

    The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

  9. Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated. (letter)

  10. Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricko, Oliver; Parkinson, Simon C.; Johnson, Nils; Strubegger, Manfred; van Vliet, Michelle TH; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-03-01

    Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.

  11. An assessment of climate change impacts on micro-hydropower energy recovery in water supply networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Jennifer; Patil, Sopan; McNabola, Aonghus; Gallagher, John; Coughlan, Paul; Harris, Ian; Packwood, Andrew; Williams, Prysor

    2015-04-01

    treatment works. This analysis is achieved through development of an empirical model utilising historical climatic data in conjunction with low, medium and high emission IPCC climate scenarios using the HADCM3 global climate model across a baseline condition and two further time steps. Results highlight projected alterations in flow rates together with the potential for increases in the frequency and persistence of drought/flooding events and the resulting impacts on future energy recovery. Critical climate change limits are also identified indicating the tolerable ranges within which hydropower recovery is financially viable, thus allowing for more informed decision making across potential sites.

  12. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F.

    1999-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling is presented that allows an estimation of potential effects of climate change on the North Sea. Therefore, the ocean general circulation model OPYC is adapted for application on a shelf by adding a lateral boundary formulation and a tide model. In this set-up the model is forced, first, with data from the ECMWF reanalysis for model validation and the study of the natural variability, and, second, with data from climate change experiments to estimate the effects of climate change on the North Sea. (orig.)

  13. DIY the Integrated Climate Model and its computational performance

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Pengfei

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the software engineering framework and computation performance of a global climate system model which helps the user to understand the step-by-step technical to DIY(do it yourself) a climate model by your own. The model integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 using OASIS3 as the coupler. The program skill of the Integrated global Climate Model (ICM) is demonstrated here, including the porting of NEMO into the COSMOS framework, the organization of variable exchange, and component ...

  14. A coupled climate model simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brandefelt

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM simulation, integrated for 1500 years to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3. The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP annual global mean surface temperature (Ts is 5.5 °C higher than in the simulated recent past (RP climate and 1.3 °C lower than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP climate. The simulated GS12 climate is evaluated against proxy data of sea surface temperature (SST. Simulated SSTs fall within the uncertainty range of the proxy SSTs for 30–50% of the sites depending on season. Proxy SSTs are higher than simulated SSTs in the Central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. The annual global mean Ts only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 years of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599, with a maximum of 8 °C in temperature and 65% in precipitation in Southeastern Greenland in boreal winter, exist. Further, the agreement between simulated and proxy SST is improved from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP are analysed for the last 300 years of the GS12, LGM and RP climate simulations. In agreement with an earlier study, we find that GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions induce major modifications to ENSO teleconnections. However, significant differences in the teleconnection patterns are found between a 300-year time-slice starting after 195 model years and the last 300 years of the simulation. Thus we conclude that both the mean state and the

  15. Coping with climate change and China's wind energy sustainable development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De-Xin He

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause of today's climate change. To address this problem, the world is in an era of new round energy transformation, and the existing energy structure is being reformed. In this paper, according to the Chinese government's action plan for coping with climate change, the China's wind energy sustainable development goals and development route are discussed, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Wind energy is currently a kind of important renewable energy with matured technology which can be scale-up developed and put into commercial application, and in this transformation, wind energy will play a key role with other non-fossil energy sources. The development and utilization of wind energy is a systematic project, which needs to be solved from the aspects of policy, technology and management. At present, China is in the stage of transferring from “large wind power country” to “strong wind power country”, opportunities and challenges coexist, and the advantages of China's socialist system could be fully used, which can concentrate power to do big things and make contribution in the process of realizing global energy transformation.

  16. China's strategy for energy development and climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, China has made great efforts in energy saving and carbon emission reduction by pushing forward domestic sustainable development along with global climate change mitigation. The efforts have paid off with a dramatic decrease in carbon intensity. Nevertheless, China is still confronted with tough challenges in emission control due to the fast pace of industrialization, large total historical emission and high growth rate of emissions. Therefore, China should give priority to energy saving by improving energy efficiency and sectoral structure adjustment and upgrade, and develop sustainable and renewable energy to optimize energy mix and its carbon content. China should continue to regard significant reduction of energy intensity and carbon intensity as the main objective in the near future, strive to achieve peak emissions around 2030, and realize a relatively sharp emissions reduction by 2050 in order to address climate change to meet the goal of making the warming less than 2°. During the 12th Five Year Plan (FYP), China will further strengthen measures to control the amount of energy consumption, establish a statistics, accounting and evaluation system of carbon emissions, and promote a market-based carbon emissions trading mechanism to facilitate the low-carbon transformation of China's economy. - Highlights: ► This paper studies China's strategy for energy development and climate change mitigation. ► We suggest that China should focus on reducing the energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP, and optimization of energy mix in the near term. ► In the long term, China should achieve the peak emission around 2030, and realize a relative sharp emission reduction by 2050. ► The paper also concludes some important measures which China should take during the 12th Five-Year-Plan (2011–2015).

  17. The Urgent Need for Improved Climate Models and Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, Lisa; Baethgen, Walter; Kirtman, Ben; Meehl, Gerald

    2009-09-01

    An investment over the next 10 years of the order of US$2 billion for developing improved climate models was recommended in a report (http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_WorldModellingSummit_Jan2009.pdf) from the May 2008 World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, held in Reading, United Kingdom, and presented by the World Climate Research Programme. The report indicated that “climate models will, as in the past, play an important, and perhaps central, role in guiding the trillion dollar decisions that the peoples, governments and industries of the world will be making to cope with the consequences of changing climate.” If trillions of dollars are going to be invested in making decisions related to climate impacts, an investment of $2 billion, which is less than 0.1% of that amount, to provide better climate information seems prudent. One example of investment in adaptation is the World Bank's Climate Investment Fund, which has drawn contributions of more than $6 billion for work on clean technologies and adaptation efforts in nine pilot countries and two pilot regions. This is just the beginning of expenditures on adaptation efforts by the World Bank and other mechanisms, focusing on only a small fraction of the nations of the world and primarily aimed at anticipated anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, decisions are being made now, all around the world—by individuals, companies, and governments—that affect people and their livelihoods today, not just 50 or more years in the future. Climate risk management, whether related to projects of the scope of the World Bank's or to the planning and decisions of municipalities, will be best guided by meaningful climate information derived from observations of the past and model predictions of the future.

  18. Tendances Carbone no. 82 'A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies: CDC Climat Research's answer'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Tendances Carbone' bulletin specifically studies the developments of the European market for CO2 allowances. This issue addresses the following points: To establish a climate and energy policy in the EU in 2030, CDC Climat Research addresses three main recommendations to the European Commission: (1) Establish a binding, single and ambitious CO2 emission reduction target of at least 40% in 2030. (2) Put the EU ETS as the central and non-residual instrument aimed at promoting cost-effective reductions in Europe and other parts of the world. (3) Define a stable, predictable and flexible climate regulation to limit carbon leakage and encourage innovation. Key drivers of the European carbon price this month: - The European Parliament has adopted Back-loading: 1.85 billion EUAs will be sold at auction between now and 2015 instead of 2.75 billion; - Phase 2 compliance: a surplus of 1,742 million tonnes (excluding the aviation sector) including auctions. - Energy Efficiency Directive: 22 of the 27 Member States have forwarded indicative targets for 2020 to the European Commission; these targets will be assessed in early 2014

  19. Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy

  20. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ROTH

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Through sustainable development the needs of the current generation are fulfilled without jeopardizing the opportunities of future generations. The concept takes into account economic, social and environmental considerations. It has a wide range of applications from natural resources to population growth and biodiversity. One of its most important themes is energy. In this area, sustainable development relates with resource availability and green house gases emissions. Also it takes into account the needs of people without access to energy, and their legitimate quest for development. For the European Union, sustainable development represents an overarching objective. The present article analyzes the concept from a theoretical perspective, contrasting its strong points and weaknesses. It highlights the relation between sustainable development, energetic resources and climate change. The EU policies results in the field of energy are analyzed from the perspective of resources, energetic dependency and climate change efforts.

  1. Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the necessity to transform global energy supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zwaan, Bob van der [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policies Studies Department, P.O. Box 37154, 1030 AD Amsterdam (Netherlands) and Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, 79 J.F.K. Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)]. E-mail: vanderzwaan@ecn.nl; Gerlagh, Reyer [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-11-15

    This paper analyses the policy relevance of the dominant uncertainty in our current scientific understanding of the terrestrial climate system, and provides further evidence for the need to radically transform-this century-our global energy supply infrastructure, given the global average temperature increase as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. We investigate the effect on required CO{sub 2} emission reduction efforts, both in terms of how much and when, of our present uncertain knowledge of the climate sensitivity to a doubling of the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. We use a top-down integrated assessment model in which there are two competing energy sources, fossil and non-fossil. Technological change is represented endogenously through learning curves, and modest but non-zero demand exists for the relatively expensive carbon-free energy resource. We find that during the forthcoming two decades the relative roles of carbon-free energy and energy savings are similar, while in the long run the importance of carbon-free energy deployment becomes predominant, independent of the assumed climate sensitivity, but dependent on some of our model's characteristic features. We also find that, in the absence of the realisation of drastic energy efficiencies or a massive deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies, non-carbon energy resources should provide 10-30% and 80-90% of total energy supply, in 2020 and 2100, respectively. Finally, we observe that in our model the timing of the emissions reduction effort is nearly linear and close to independent of either the climate sensitivity or policy target.

  2. Hydrogen from nuclear energy and the impact on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The two major candidates for hydrogen production include nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. However, hydrogen produced by steam reforming of natural gas offers little advantage in total cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over hybrid internal combustion engine (ICE) technology. Only nuclear power offers the possibility of cutting GHG emissions significantly and to economically provide electricity for traditional applications and by producing hydrogen for its widespread use in the transportation sector. Using nuclear energy to produce hydrogen for transportation fuel, doubles or triples nuclear's capacity to reduce GHG emissions. An analysis at the Atomic Energy of Canada shows that a combination of hydrogen fuel and nuclear energy can stabilize GHG emissions and climate change for a wide range of the latest scenarios presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The technology for replacing hydrocarbon fuels with non-polluting hydrogen exists with nuclear power, electrolysis and fuel cells, using electric power grids for distribution. It was emphasized that a move toward total emissions-free transportation will be a move towards solving the negative effects of climate change. This paper illustrated the trends between global economic and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Low carbon dioxide emission energy alternatives were discussed along with the sources of hydrogen and the full cycle assessment results in reduced emissions. It was shown that deploying 20 CANDU NPPs (of 690 MW (e) net each) would fuel 13 million vehicles with the effect of levelling of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation between 2020 to 2030. 13 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  3. An efficient climate model with water isotope physics: NEEMY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, J.; Emile-Geay, J.

    2015-12-01

    This work describes the development of an isotope-enabled atmosphere-ocean global climate model, NEEMY. This is a model of intermediate complexity, which can run 100 model years in 30 hours using 33 CPUs. The atmospheric component is the SPEEDY-IER (Molteni et al. 2003; Dee et al. 2015a), which is a water isotope-enabled (with equilibrium and kinetic fractionation schemes in precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture) simplified atmospheric general circulation model, with T30 horizontal resolution and 8 vertical layers. The oceanic component is NEMO 3.4 (Madec 2008), a state-of-the-art oceanic model (~2° horizontal resolution and 31 vertical layers) with an oceanic isotope module (a passive tracer scheme). A 1000-year control run shows that NEEMY is stable and its energy is conserved. The mean state is comparable to that of CMIP3-era CGCMs, though much cheaper to run. Atmospheric teleconnections such as the NAO and PNA are simulated very well. NEEMY also simulates the oceanic meridional overturning circulation well. The tropical climate variability is weaker than observations, and the climatology exhibits a double ITCZ problem despite bias corrections. The standard deviation of the monthly mean Nino3.4 index is 0.61K, compared to 0.91K in observations (Reynolds et al. 2002). We document similarities and differences with a close cousin, SPEEDY-NEMO (Kucharski et al. 2015). With its fast speed and relatively complete physical processes, NEEMY is suitable for paleoclimate studies ; we will present some forced simulations of the past millennium and their use in forward-modeling climate proxies, via proxy system models (PSMs, Dee et al 2015b). References Dee, S., D. Noone, N. Buenning, J. Emile-Geay, and Y. Zhou, 2015a: SPEEDY-IER: A fast atmospheric GCM with water isotope physics. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120: 73-91. doi:10.1002/2014JD022194. Dee, S. G., J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, Allam, A., D. M. Thompson, and E. J. Steig, 2015b: PRYSM: an open-source framework

  4. SLC summer 2010 university - The ocean in the climate-energy problem, urban policies. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document brings together the available presentations given at the summer 2010 university of the SLC (save the climate) organization on the topics of the ocean in the climate-energy problem, and of the urban policies. Nine presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Biofuels made from micro-algae: stakes and challenges (Olivier Bernard, Comore - INRIA /CNRS/UPMC); 2 - The energy of waves (Alain Clement, Ecole Centrale de Nantes); 3 - The sea, new source of renewable energies? (J.J. Herou, EDF CIH); 4 - Oceans acidification: the other CO2 problem (James Orr, Pierre Simon Laplace Institute - IPSL, Laboratory of climate and environmental Sciences - LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ); 5 - Oceans and carbon cycle (Laurent Bopp, IPSL/LSCE); 6 - Renewable marine energies (Yann-Herve De Roeck, France Energies Marines); 7 - Energy renovation of buildings (Jean-Claude Terrier, Mesac Europe); 8 - Modevur research project - Modeling of urban development, sketch of a development typology of chinese cities (Clement-Noel Douady); 9 - Urban areas in the fight against climate change: stakes, knowledge and controversies (Francois Menard, PUCA)

  5. The Program for climate Model diagnosis and Intercomparison: 20-th anniversary Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, Gerald L; Bader, David C; Riches, Michael; Bamzai, Anjuli; Joseph, Renu

    2011-01-05

    Twenty years ago, W. Lawrence (Larry) Gates approached the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Research (now the Office of Science) with a plan to coordinate the comparison and documentation of climate model differences. This effort would help improve our understanding of climate change through a systematic approach to model intercomparison. Early attempts at comparing results showed a surprisingly large range in control climate from such parameters as cloud cover, precipitation, and even atmospheric temperature. The DOE agreed to fund the effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), in part because of the existing computing environment and because of a preexisting atmospheric science group that contained a wide variety of expertise. The project was named the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and it has changed the international landscape of climate modeling over the past 20 years. In spring 2009 the DOE hosted a 1-day symposium to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of PCMDI and to honor its founder, Larry Gates. Through their personal experiences, the morning presenters painted an image of climate science in the 1970s and 1980s, that generated early support from the international community for model intercomparison, thereby bringing PCMDI into existence. Four talks covered Gates's early contributions to climate research at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the RAND Corporation, and Oregon State University through the founding of PCMDI to coordinate the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The speakers were, in order of presentation, Warren Washington [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)], Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center), George Boer (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and Lennart Bengtsson [University of Reading, former director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)]. The afternoon session

  6. Modelling the economic impacts of addressing climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Power Point report presents highlights of the latest economic modelling of Canada's Kyoto commitment to address climate change. It presents framework assumptions and a snapshot under 4 scenarios. The objective of this report is to evaluate the national, sectoral, provincial and territorial impacts of the federal reference case policy package in which the emissions reduction target is 170 Mt from a business-as-usual scenario. The reference case policy package also includes 30 Mt of sinks from current packages of which 20 Mt are derived from the forestry sector and the remainder from agricultural sector. The report examined 4 scenarios based on 2 international carbon prices ($10 and $50) per tonne of carbon dioxide in 2010. The scenarios were also based on the fiscal assumptions that climate change initiatives and revenue losses would directly affect the governments' balances, or that the government balances are maintained by increasing personal income tax. A comparison of impacts under each of the 4 scenarios to 2010 was presented. The model presents impacts on GDP, employment, disposable income per household, and energy prices. 4 tabs., 4 figs

  7. The use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The IPCC 4th Assessment Report was based on large datasets of projections of future climate produced by eighteen modelling groups worldwide who performed a set of coordinated climate experiments in which numerous global climate models (GCMs) have been run for a common set of experiments and various emission scenarios. These datasets are freely available form the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (www.ipcc-data.org) and can be used by the research community to assess the impact of changing climate on various systems of interest including impacts on agricultural crops and natural ecosystems, biodiversity and plant diseases. Multi-model ensembles (MME) emphasize the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the global climate model design as well as uncertainty to variations of initial conditions or model parameters. This paper describes a methodology based on a stochastic weather generator for linking MME of predictions from GCMs with process-based impact models to assess impacts of climate change on biological or ecological systems. The latest version of the LARS-WG weather generator is described which allows seamlessly generating daily site-specific climate scenarios worldwide by utilising local daily weather and MME from GCMs. Examples of impacts on wheat in Europe, based on MME, are discussed, including changes in severity of drought and heat stress around flowering.

  8. Statistical Properties of Downscaled CMIP3 Global Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, P.; Tyan, S.; Thrasher, B.; Maurer, E. P.; Tebaldi, C.

    2009-12-01

    Spatial downscaling of global climate model projections adds physically meaningful spatial detail, and brings the results down to a scale that is more relevant to human and ecological systems. Statistical/empirical downscaling methods are computationally inexpensive, and thus can be applied to large ensembles of global climate model projections. Here we examine some of the statistical properties of a large ensemble of empirically downscale global climate projections. The projections are the CMIP3 global climate model projections that were performed by modeling groups around the world and archived by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Downscaled versions of 112 of these simulations were created on 2007 and are archived at http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcpInterface.html. The downscaling methodology employed, “Bias Correction/Spatial Downscaling” (BCSD), includes a correction of GCM biases relative to observations during a historical reference period, as well as empirical downscaling to grid scale of ~12 km. We analyzed these downscaled projections and some of the original global model results to assess effects of the bias correction and downscaling on the statistical properties of the ensemble. We also assessed uncertainty in the climate response to increased greenhouse gases from initial conditions relative to the uncertainty introduced by choice of global climate model.

  9. Partitioning energy flux using climate record and remote sensing data across the Yukon River Basin, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, S.; Dahal, D.; Singh, R. K.; Young, C. J.; Tieszen, L. L.; Liu, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Yukon River Basin (YRB) in Alaska is locate