WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate models energy

  1. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

    2011-01-01

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  2. Economy-Energy-Climate Interaction. The Model Wiagem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemfert, C.

    2001-09-01

    This paper presents an integrated economy-energy-climate model WIAGEM (World Integrated Assessment General Equilibrium Model) which incorporates economic, energetic and climatic modules in an integrated assessment approach. In order to evaluate market and non-market costs and benefits of climate change WIAGEM combines an economic approach with a special focus on the international energy market and integrates climate interrelations by temperature changes and sea level variations. WIAGEM bases on 25 world regions which are aggregated to 11 trading regions and 14 sectors within each region. The representation of the economic relations is based on an intertemporal general equilibrium approach and contains the international markets for oil, coal and gas. The model incorporates all greenhouse gases (GHG) which influence the potential global temperature, the sea level variation and the assessed probable impacts in terms of costs and benefits of climate change. Market and non market damages are evaluated due to the damage costs approaches of Tol (2001). Additionally, this model includes net changes in GHG emissions from sources and removals by sinks resulting from land use change and forest activities. This paper describes the model structure in detail and outlines some general results, especially the impacts of climate change. As a result, climate change impacts do matter within the next 50 years, developing regions face high economic losses in terms of welfare and GDP losses. The inclusion of sinks and other GHG changes results significantly

  3. Climate, greenhouse effect, energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriksen, Thormod; Kanestroem, Ingolf

    2001-01-01

    The book has sections on the sun as energy source, the earth climate and it's changes and factors influencing this, the greenhouse effect on earth and other planets, greenhouse gases and aerosols and their properties and importance, historic climate and paleoclimate, climatic models and their uses and limitations, future climate, consequences of climatic changes, uncertainties regarding the climate and measures for reducing the greenhouse effect. Finally there are sections on energy and energy resources, the use, sources such as fossil fuels, nuclear power, renewable resources, heat pumps, energy storage and environmental aspects and the earth magnetic field is briefly surveyed

  4. The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David

    2004-01-01

    A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold

  5. Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

  6. Review of models on energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weyant, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Energy Modeling Forum recently has initiated a global climate change project. The purpose of the project is to summarize the work which has already been done on this topic and to evaluate the quality of the work. Several critical issues arise in any effort to make credible estimates of the cost of greenhouse control strategies. First, a worldwide modeling framework must be developed because carbon emissions from particular regions affect the global atmosphere. Because the data available on developing countries is quite poor at present, future efforts should focus on new data collection and modeling efforts in these regions. Second, all the major greenhouse gases - CO 2 , CFCs, methane and N 2 O - and not just carbon dioxide must be considered in future analyses. It is the overall concentration of all these different greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that ultimately will lead to global climate change. Third, an effective means for analyzing the various greenhouse gas control strategies must be developed. In order to successfully carry out the final task, a method must be developed which integrates a top-down macro-economic approach with a bottom-up process engineering approach. When implementing the macro-economic approach, one must choose plausible ranges for future economic and population growth rates. The reason for this is that even small changes in these driving factors can have huge impacts on emissions projections over the 100 or more year time frames required to address the greenhouse gas problem. The implementation of the process engineering approach requires: an accurate characterization of the costs, performance and availability of current and likely future technologies; an assessment of the likely barriers to technology transfer of both existing and new technologies, particularly from the developed to the developing countries; and an evaluation of the impact of energy prices and greenhouse gas policies on new technological development

  7. Investigating the impact of different thermal comfort models for zero energy buildings in hot climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attia, S.G.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    The selection of a thermal comfort model has a major impact on energy consumption of Net Zero Energy Buildings (NZEBs) in hot climates. The objective of this paper is to compare the influence of using different comfort models for zero energy buildings in hot climates. The paper compares the impact

  8. A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, W.N.; Mendelsohn, R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage

  9. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  10. Combining climate and energy policies: synergies or antagonism? Modeling interactions with energy efficiency instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecuyer, Oskar; Bibas, Ruben

    2012-01-01

    In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce GHG emissions and although a price on carbon tends also to give the right incentives for RE and EE, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single framework and to quantify the antagonistic effects of the joint promotion of RE and EE. We also show and quantify the effects of this joint promotion on ETS permit price, on wholesale market price and on energy production levels. (authors)

  11. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Haugen, Jan Erik; Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John; Jarlset, Thore

    2011-01-01

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  12. Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

    2005-01-01

    Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

  13. The impacts of climate change on energy: An aggregate expenditure model for the US

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, W. [Boston Univ., MA (United States); Mendelsohn, R. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

    1998-09-01

    This paper develops a theoretical model to measure the climate change impacts to the energy sector. Welfare effects are approximately equal to the resulting change in expenditures on energy and buildings. Using micro data on individuals and firms across the United States, energy expenditures are regressed on climate and other control variables to estimate both short-run and long-run climate response functions. The analysis suggests that energy expenditures have a quadratic U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. Future warming of 2 C is predicted to cause annual damages of about $6 billion but increases of 5 C would increase damages to almost $30 billion.

  14. The impacts of climate change on energy: An aggregate expenditure model for the US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, W.; Mendelsohn, R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper develops a theoretical model to measure the climate change impacts to the energy sector. Welfare effects are approximately equal to the resulting change in expenditures on energy and buildings. Using micro data on individuals and firms across the United States, energy expenditures are regressed on climate and other control variables to estimate both short-run and long-run climate response functions. The analysis suggests that energy expenditures have a quadratic U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. Future warming of 2 C is predicted to cause annual damages of about $6 billion but increases of 5 C would increase damages to almost $30 billion

  15. Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Final Scientific/Technical Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaudhary, Aashish [Kitware, Inc.

    2017-10-17

    Seven Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, Universities, and Kitware, undertook a coordinated effort to build an Earth system modeling capability tailored to meet the climate change research strategic objectives of the DOE Office of Science, as well as the broader climate change application needs of other DOE programs.

  16. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  17. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  18. High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50

  19. Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, J.

    There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.0 0 C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

  20. A control-oriented model for combined building climate comfort and aquifer thermal energy storage system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rostampour Samarin, Vahab; Bloemendal, J.M.; Jaxa-Rozen, M.; Keviczky, T.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a control-oriented model for combined building climate comfort and aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system. In particular, we first provide a description of building operational systems together with control framework variables. We then focus on the derivation of an

  1. Climate-Energy Nexus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sayler, Gary; Gentry, Randall; Zhuang, Jie

    2010-07-01

    The 140-page published proceedings of the workshop include individual articles and PowerPoint slides for all workshop presentations. The proceedings also contain pertinent background information on the China-US Joint Research Center, partnering organizations, and workshop goals and objectives. Overall, the workshop increased the understanding of the impacts of climate change on energy use and renewable energy production as well as the complex relationships among land use, energy production, and ecological restoration. The workshop served as an international platform for scientists and students of different research backgrounds to develop a unified perspective on energy and climate relationships. Such understanding will benefit future cooperation between China and the US in mitigating global climate change. The workshop’s agenda, which is highly interdisciplinary, explored many potential opportunities for international collaboration in ecosystem management, climate modeling, greenhouse gas emissions, and bioenergy sustainability. International research groups have been suggested in the areas of genomes and biotechnology of energy plants, sustainable management of soil and water resources, carbon sequestration, and microbial processes for ecological cycles. The project has attracted considerable attention from institutes beyond the China-US Joint Research Center partners, and several of them (such as Institute of Qing-Tibet Plateau Research, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS) have expressed interest in joining the partnership. In addition, the workshop played a significant role in facilitating establishment of private-public partnerships between government and private bioenergy companies (such as L.R. Shugarts and Associates, Inc.), including seed providers (Blade Energy Crops, Thousand Oaks, CA), pilot demonstration projects at coal-producing cities (e.g., Huaibei, Anhui province, China), and the development of methodology

  2. A continuous latitudinal energy balance model to explore non-uniform climate engineering strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonetti, F.; McInnes, C. R.

    2016-12-01

    Current concentrations of atmospheric CO2 exceed measured historical levels in modern times, largely attributed to anthropogenic forcing since the industrial revolution. The required decline in emissions rates has never been achieved leading to recent interest in climate engineering for future risk-mitigation strategies. Climate engineering aims to offset human-driven climate change. It involves techniques developed both to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods) and to counteract the radiative forcing that it generates (Solar Radiation Management (SRM) methods). In order to investigate effects of SRM technologies for climate engineering, an analytical model describing the main dynamics of the Earth's climate has been developed. The model is a time-dependent Energy Balance Model (EBM) with latitudinal resolution and allows for the evaluation of non-uniform climate engineering strategies. A significant disadvantage of climate engineering techniques involving the management of solar radiation is regional disparities in cooling. This model offers an analytical approach to design multi-objective strategies that counteract climate change on a regional basis: for example, to cool the Artic and restrict undesired impacts at mid-latitudes, or to control the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using the Green's function approach the resulting partial differential equation allows for the computation of the surface temperature as a function of time and latitude when a 1% per year increase in the CO2 concentration is considered. After the validation of the model through comparisons with high fidelity numerical models, it will be used to explore strategies for the injection of the aerosol precursors in the stratosphere. In particular, the model involves detailed description of the optical properties of the particles, the wash-out dynamics and the estimation of the radiative cooling they can generate.

  3. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

  4. Creating agent-based energy transition management models that can uncover profitable pathways to climate change mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, A.E.; Steinbuch, M.; Verbong, G.P.J.

    2017-01-01

    The energy domain is still dominated by equilibrium models that underestimate both the dangers and opportunities related to climate change. In reality, climate and energy systems contain tipping points, feedback loops, and exponential developments. This paper describes how to create realistic energy

  5. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  6. Modeling and simulation of the energy use in an occupied residential building in cold climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olofsson, Thomas; Mahlia, T.M.I.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► An overview of the energy-characteristics based on illustrations in graphical figures. ► Figures to support identification and validation energy refurbishment measures. ► Emphasizing energy efficiency measures in early stage of building design. -- Abstract: In order to reduce the energy use in the building sector there is a demand for tools that can identify significant building energy performance parameters. In the work introduced in this paper presents a methodology, based on a simulation module and graphical figures, for interactive investigations of the building energy performance. The building energy use simulation program is called TEKLA and is using EN832 with an improved procedure in calculating the heat loss through the floor and the solar heat gain. The graphical figures are simple and are illustrating the savings based on retrofit measures and climate conditions. The accuracy of the TEKLA simulation was investigated on a typical single-family building in Sweden for a period of time in a space heating demand of relatively cold and mild climate. The model was found applicable for relative investigations. Further, the methodology was applied on a typical single family reference building. The climate data from three locations in Sweden were collected and a set of relevant measures were studied. The investigated examples illustrate how decisions in the early stages of the building design process can have decisive importance on the final building energy performance.

  7. A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Yiyong; Newth, David; Finnigan, John; Gunasekera, Don

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • This paper introduces the design of a hybrid energy-economy model, GTEM-C. • The model offers a unified tool to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. • Results are presented on global energy transformation due to carbon mitigation. • Electrification with renewable energies can contain the spiking of carbon prices. - Abstract: This paper introduces the design of the CSIRO variant of the Global Trade and Environment model (GTEM-C). GTEM-C is a hybrid model that combines the top-down macroeconomic representation of a computable general equilibrium model with the bottom-up engineering details of energy production. The model features detailed accounting for global energy flows that are embedded in traded energy goods, and it offers a unified framework to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. As an illustrative example, we present simulation results on global energy transformation under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative carbon pathways 4.5 and 8.5. By testing the model’s sensitivity to the relevant parameter, we find that the pace of electrification will significantly contain the spiking of carbon prices because electricity can be produced from carbon-free or less carbon-intensive technologies. The decoupling of energy use and carbon footprint, due to the uptake of clean electricity technologies, such as nuclear, wind, solar, and carbon capture and storage, allows the world to maintain high level of energy consumption, which is essential to economic growth

  8. Dynamic modeling of potentially conflicting energy reduction strategies for residential structures in semi-arid climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, Nathan; Li, Ke; Schramski, John R; Crittenden, John

    2012-04-30

    Globally, residential energy consumption continues to rise due to a variety of trends such as increasing access to modern appliances, overall population growth, and the overall increase of electricity distribution. Currently, residential energy consumption accounts for approximately one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption. This research analyzes the effectiveness of a range of energy-saving measures for residential houses in semi-arid climates. These energy-saving measures include: structural insulated panels (SIP) for exterior wall construction, daylight control, increased window area, efficient window glass suitable for the local weather, and several combinations of these. Our model determined that energy consumption is reduced by up to 6.1% when multiple energy savings technologies are combined. In addition, pre-construction technologies (structural insulated panels (SIPs), daylight control, and increased window area) provide roughly 4 times the energy savings when compared to post-construction technologies (window blinds and efficient window glass). The model also illuminated the importance variations in local climate and building configuration; highlighting the site-specific nature of this type of energy consumption quantification for policy and building code considerations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haurie, A.; Tavoni, M.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

    2011-01-01

    This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

  10. Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haurie, A. [ORDECSYS, Geneva (Switzerland); Tavoni, M. [Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Van der Zwaan, B.C.C. [Policy Studies Department, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2011-07-15

    This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

  11. Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, K.

    2017-12-01

    Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are

  12. Climate and energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    The dossier on Climate and Energy encompasses contributions addressing the following topics: Climate research in Germany, perspectives of the energy of the future; Energy-conserving building design, construction and retrofitting; Companies developing ecological awareness and ecological performance; World population, energy consumption and greenhouse gas abatement; On the uncertainty involved in political evaluation of the global climate change; Economic aspects of the carbon dioxide issue; Ozone - polar stratospheres - clouds and ozone hole; Ozone - vertical ozone distribution in the antarctic region; Sudden climate change; Sulfate aerosols and climate change; Symptoms of the global climate change; IKARUS - greenhouse gas abatement strategies; Energy from fossil fuels; Renewable energy sources; Nuclear fusion; Is there a chance for nuclear energy?; Least-cost planning leading to energy-conserving power plants; Pleading for a sustainable energy economy; Why we both love and destroy nature. The concluding two contributions are interviews highlighting two statements: We will persist in our intention to achieve the declared objectives for greenhouse gas abatement, and: We cannot do without nuclear energy. (RHM) [de

  13. A Multi-Scale Energy Food Systems Modeling Framework For Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, S.; Bakker, C.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Hobbs, B. F.; Broaddus, E.; Neff, R.; Haskett, J.; Parker, C.

    2016-12-01

    Our goal is to understand coupled system dynamics across scales in a manner that allows us to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes (nutritional satisfaction, household economic well-being) to development strategies and to climate or market induced shocks in sub-Saharan Africa. We adopt both bottom-up and top-down multi-scale modeling approaches focusing our efforts on food, energy, water (FEW) dynamics to define, parameterize, and evaluate modeled processes nationally as well as across climate zones and communities. Our framework comprises three complementary modeling techniques spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture interdependencies between sectors, across time scales, and on multiple levels of geographic aggregation. At the center is a multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial equilibrium model for the production, consumption, storage, and transportation of food, energy, and fuels, which is the focus of this presentation. We show why such models can be very useful for linking and integrating across time and spatial scales, as well as a wide variety of models including an agent-based model applied to rural villages and larger population centers, an optimization-based electricity infrastructure model at a regional scale, and a computable general equilibrium model, which is applied to understand FEW resources and economic patterns at national scale. The MME is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players in an energy, electricity, or food market and captures important food supply chain components of trade and food distribution accounting for infrastructure and geography. Second, our model considers food access and utilization by modeling food waste and disaggregating consumption by income and age. Third, the model is set up to evaluate the effects of seasonality and system shocks on supply, demand, infrastructure, and transportation in both energy and food.

  14. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  15. Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous

  16. Novel Methods to Explore Building Energy Sensitivity to Climate and Heat Waves Using PNNL's BEND Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burleyson, C. D.; Voisin, N.; Taylor, T.; Xie, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

    2017-12-01

    The DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model to simulate energy usage in residential and commercial buildings responding to changes in weather, climate, population, and building technologies. At its core, BEND is a mechanism to aggregate EnergyPlus simulations of a large number of individual buildings with a diversity of characteristics over large spatial scales. We have completed a series of experiments to explore methods to calibrate the BEND model, measure its ability to capture interannual variability in energy demand due to weather using simulations of two distinct weather years, and understand the sensitivity to the number and location of weather stations used to force the model. The use of weather from "representative cities" reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate (Fig. 1). We quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations across the western U.S., ranging from 8 to roughly 150. Using 8 stations results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 4.0°C. The mean absolute bias drops to 1.5°C using all available stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%. Additionally, using only 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% bias of peak building loads under heat wave or cold snap conditions, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may rely on these types of simulations. This analysis suggests that using 4 stations per climate zone may be sufficient for most purposes. Our novel approach, which requires no new EnergyPlus simulations, could be useful to other researchers designing or calibrating aggregate building model simulations - particularly those looking at

  17. Advanced energy technologies and climate change: An analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmonds, J.; Wise, M.; MacCracken, C.

    1994-01-01

    The authors report results from a ''top down'' energy-economy model employing ''bottom up'' assumptions and embedded in an integrated assessment framework, GCAM. The analysis shows that, from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences in results from the ''top down'' and ''bottom up'' research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences in modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the middle of the eighteenth century. The consideration of all greenhouse gases, and in particular sulfur, leads to some extremely interesting results that the rapid deployment of advanced energy technologies leads to higher temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This is due to the fact that the advanced energy technologies reduce sulfur emissions as well as those of carbon. The short-term cooling impact of sulfur dominates the long-term warming impact of CO 2 and CH 4 . While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. 16 refs., 12 figs., 3 tabs

  18. Architecture, energy and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauring, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Architecture has always had to relate to climatic conditions while providing shelter from the sun, the rain, the winds or the cold. This is a main purpose of buildings: To establish an indoor climate different from the outdoor. In the Nordic countries fuels for heating buildings has been a vital...... necessity almost as basic as food and water, and lack of wood has caused illness and migration - scarcity of energy is not a new topic either [Kjærgaard]. The new aspects are that human civilization is in danger of causing severe global climate changes, secondly that we can foresee using up the global non......-renewable reserves of oil, gas and uranium, both aspects capable of pulling the carpet under human civilization itself as we know it. The huge energy consumption especially in the northern hemisphere is closely linked to industrialization, and the response from those aware of energy and climate problems has in some...

  19. Climate saver atomic energy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-12-01

    According to the Schleswig-Holstein Land government nuclear power phaseout is compatible with measures designed to protect world climate. Only efforts aimed at quickly reducing energy demand by means of thermal insulation, energy conservation techniques, cogeneration systems and application of renewable energies are necessary. The Schleswig-Holstein energy concept is given as an example of making possible a worldwide carbon dioxide reduction. (DG) [de

  20. Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.

    2008-01-01

    There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5

  1. The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesicki, Fabian; Anandarajah, Gabrial

    2011-01-01

    In order to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO 2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: → A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. → The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. → Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. → Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. → Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

  2. The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kesicki, Fabian, E-mail: fabian.kesicki.09@ucl.ac.uk [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom); Anandarajah, Gabrial [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom)

    2011-11-15

    In order to reduce energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO{sub 2} emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: > A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. > The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. > Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. > Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. > Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

  3. Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johansson, D.J.A.; Lucas, P.L.; Weitzel, M.; Ahlgren, E.O.; Bazaz, A.B.; Chen, W.; den Elzen, M.G.J.; Ghosh, J.; Grahn, M.; Liang, Q.M.; Peterson, S.; Pradhan, B.K.; van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; Shukla, P.R.; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Wei, Y.M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national

  4. Modeling the water-energy nexus under changing energy market and climate conditions: a case study in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denaro, Simona; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Fumagalli, Elena; Giuliani, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) have been already observed over the last few years and have produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies. This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system located in the Lake Como catchment. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e

  5. Bridging Research and Policy in Energy Transition. Contributing to shape energy and climate policies through economic modelling and analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paugam, Anne; Giraud, Gael; Thauvin, Eric

    2015-11-01

    The growth model of the 20. century relied heavily on the exploitation of fossil energy and natural resources extracted at low cost. Yet, the depletion of these resources, the upward trend of their prices over the long term and the consequences of their use for the environment and climate are now challenging the sustainability of this model. The notion of energy transition is directed at rethinking the use of energy resources and natural capital to reach an economic growth that mitigates negative environmental effects, without sacrificing the well-being of populations. Turning this idea into action is a challenging task. AFD has designed and funded research and technical cooperation projects in order to inform decisions on the short-term cost and long-term impact of measures designed to accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy regimes. Using tools for empirical economic analysis (particularly 'economy-energy' models), these projects have been carried out in several intervention settings, including South Africa, China and Mexico, which are discussed in this paper

  6. Climate - Greenhouse effect - Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriksen, Thormod; Kanestroem, Ingolf

    2001-01-01

    This book explains what is understood by climate systems and the concept of greenhouse effect. It also gives a survey of the world's energy consumption, energy reserves and renewable energy sources. Today, 75 - 80 per cent of the world's energy consumption involves fossil fuel. These are the sources that cause the CO 2 emissions. What are the possibilities of reducing the emissions? The world's population is increasing, and to provide food and a worthy life for everybody we have to use more energy. Where do we get this energy from without causing great climate changes and environmental changes? Should gas power plants be built in Norway? Should Swedish nuclear power plants be shut down, or is it advisable to concentrate on nuclear power, worldwide, this century, to reduce the CO 2 emissions until the renewable energy sources have been developed and can take over once the petroleum sources have been depleted? The book also discusses the global magnetic field, which protects against particle radiation from space and which gives rise to the aurora borealis. The book is aimed at students taking environmental courses in universities and colleges, but is also of interest for anybody concerned about climate questions, energy sources and living standard

  7. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  8. Evaluation of the energy-climate package with the help of Gemini-E3 Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vielle, M.; Moulinier, J.M.; Bernard, A.

    2009-01-01

    This article presents an evaluation of the energy-climate package carried out at the request of the Ministry of Sustainable Development (MEEDDAT) by simulating several scenarios on the general calculable equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. The analysis was carried out during the European negotiations in very close collaboration with the services of the Ministry and has thus constituted a useful tool for deciding and defining the position of France, which, besides, chaired the Union in the course of the transition period of the second half of 2008 and was in charge of finding and gaining acceptance of a compromise between all the member countries, while taking into account the aspirations of the professionals most closely involved. As one might guess, the study shows that the easing of constraints through mechanisms of flexibility yields reductions in the cost of European policy on climate change, particularly for the achievement of the main objective, viz. the 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. This cost is reasonable, although its distribution between countries is neither homogeneous, nor in conformity with concerns over equity. Many indirect effects of the policy on climate change, in particular the gains or losses caused by the modification of the terms of trade, may significantly upset the hierarchy of direct costs. This article also looks into the carbon leakage issue and suggests, in particular, favouring the net leakage concept, this being the discrepancy between the additional emissions in non-annex B countries and those which would have been incurred if production in response to demand from annex B countries relatively insensitive to the policy o climatic change, had not been relocated. Another feature of this study is an evaluation, after the event, of the extent to which the use of a modelling tool has effectively allowed identification of the issues raised in the course of the European negotiation, and to provide relevant answers. (authors)

  9. Achieving stringent climate targets. An analysis of the role of transport and variable renewable energies using energy-economy-climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietzcker, Robert Carl

    2014-07-01

    technologies photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in REMIND confirms the dominant role of these variable renewable energies for the decarbonization of the power sector. Recent cost reductions have brought PV to cost-competitiveness in regions with high midday electricity demand and high solar irradiance. The representation of system integration costs in REMIND is found to have significant impact on the competition between PV and CSP in the model: the low integration requirements of CSP equipped with thermal storage and hydrogen co-firing make CSP competitive at high shares of variable renewable energies, which leads to substantial deployment of both PV and CSP in low stabilization scenarios. A cross-model study of transport sector decarbonization confirms the earlier finding that the transport sector is not very reactive to intermediate carbon price levels: Until 2050, transport decarbonization lags 10-30 years behind the decarbonization of other sectors, and liquid fuels dominate the transport sector. In the long term, however, transportation does not seem to be an insurmountable barrier to stringent climate targets: As the price signals on CO{sub 2} increase further, transport emissions can be reduced substantially - if either hydrogen fuel cells or electromobility open a route to low-carbon energy carriers, or second generation biofuels (possibly in combination with CCS) allow the use of liquid-based transport modes with low emissions. The last study takes up the fundamental question of this thesis and analyses the trade-off between the stringency of a climate target and the resulting techno-economic requirements and costs. We find that transforming the global energy-economy system to keep a two-thirds likelihood of limiting global warming to below 2 C is achievable at moderate economic implications. This result is contingent on the near-term implementation of stringent global climate policies and full availability of several technologies that are still in

  10. Multiple regression models for energy use in air-conditioned office buildings in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Liu Dalong; Tsang, C.L.

    2010-01-01

    An attempt was made to develop multiple regression models for office buildings in the five major climates in China - severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, mild, and hot summer and warm winter. A total of 12 key building design variables were identified through parametric and sensitivity analysis, and considered as inputs in the regression models. The coefficient of determination R 2 varies from 0.89 in Harbin to 0.97 in Kunming, indicating that 89-97% of the variations in annual building energy use can be explained by the changes in the 12 parameters. A pseudo-random number generator based on three simple multiplicative congruential generators was employed to generate random designs for evaluation of the regression models. The difference between regression-predicted and DOE-simulated annual building energy use are largely within 10%. It is envisaged that the regression models developed can be used to estimate the likely energy savings/penalty during the initial design stage when different building schemes and design concepts are being considered.

  11. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  12. Hybrid modeling to support energy-climate policy: Effects of feed-in tariffs to promote renewable energy in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proença, Sara; St Aubyn, Miguel

    2013-01-01

    Feed-in tariffs have been the main policy instrument applied in Portugal for the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources under the EU Directives on energy and climate regulation. In this paper, we provide an empirical impact assessment of the economic and environmental effects of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. Impact assessment of policy instruments plays a crucial role on decision-making process. For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium modeling approach, which represents a reliable tool to analyze the complex interactions between economic, energy, and environmental issues related to energy policies. Numerical simulations confirm the empirical evidence that the FITs policy implemented by Portugal was both an effective and a cost-efficient way to increase the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources and thus to achieve the national RES-E target of 45% in 2010. Results show relatively modest macroeconomic impacts indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. From an environmental perspective, the deployment of renewable energy source results in significant carbon emissions reductions. - Highlights: ► We provide an impact assessment of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. ► For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium model. ► Portugal's FITs policy proved to be a cost-efficient way to increase generation of renewable electricity. ► Results show relatively modest macroeconomic effects indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. ► The deployment of renewable energy sources results in significant carbon emission reductions

  13. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  14. Modeling glacial climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, G. R.; Crowley, T. J.

    1984-01-01

    Mathematical climate modelling has matured as a discipline to the point that it is useful in paleoclimatology. As an example a new two dimensional energy balance model is described and applied to several problems of current interest. The model includes the seasonal cycle and the detailed land-sea geographical distribution. By examining the changes in the seasonal cycle when external perturbations are forced upon the climate system it is possible to construct hypotheses about the origin of midlatitude ice sheets and polar ice caps. In particular the model predicts a rather sudden potential for glaciation over large areas when the Earth's orbital elements are only slightly altered. Similarly, the drift of continents or the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological time induces radical changes in continental ice cover. With the advance of computer technology and improved understanding of the individual components of the climate system, these ideas will be tested in far more realistic models in the near future.

  15. Climate sensitivity of glaciers in southern Norway: application of an energy-balance model to Nigardsbreen, Hellstugubreen and Alfotbreen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1992-01-01

    Three glaciers in southern Norway, with very different massbalance characteristics, are studied with an energy-balance model of the ice/snow surface. The model simulates the observed mass-balance profiles in a satisfactory way, and can thus be used with some confidence in a study of climate

  16. TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

  17. Energy-balance climate models: stability experiments with a refined albedo and updated coefficients for infrared emission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1978-01-01

    A zonally averaged' climate model of the energy-balance type is examined. Recently published satellite measurements were used to improve existing parameterizations of planetary albedo and outgoing radiation in terms of surface and sea level temperature. A realistic constant for the diffusion of

  18. Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visschers, Vivianne H.M.; Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed. - Highlights: → Explanatory model of determinants of nuclear power acceptance was studied in the representative survey. → Perceived benefits for a secure energy supply had the largest influence on acceptance. → Perceived benefits for the climate seemed less influential on acceptance. → Affect had a central role in the explanatory model. → Implications for communication about nuclear power plants are discussed.

  19. Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visschers, Vivianne H.M., E-mail: vvisschers@ethz.ch [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Consumer Behavior, Universitaetsstrasse 22 CHN J 75.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Consumer Behavior, Universitaetsstrasse 22 CHN J 75.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-06-15

    Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed. - Highlights: > Explanatory model of determinants of nuclear power acceptance was studied in the representative survey. > Perceived benefits for a secure energy supply had the largest influence on acceptance. > Perceived benefits for the climate seemed less influential on acceptance. > Affect had a central role in the explanatory model. > Implications for communication about nuclear power plants are discussed.

  20. Evaluation of energy efficiency in street lighting: model proposition considering climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaury Caruzzo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the impacts of climate variability on efficient electricity consumption in street lighting in Brazil. The Climate Demand Method (CDM was applied, and the energy savings achieved by Brazil’s National Efficient Street Lighting Program (ReLuz in 2005 were calculated, considering the monthly climatology of sunshine duration, disaggregated by county in Brazil. The total energy savings in street lighting in 2005 were estimated at 63 GWh/year or 1.39% higher than the value determined by ReLuz/Eletrobrás and there was a 15 MW reduction in demand in Brazil, considering the nearly 393,000 points in ReLuz served in 2005. The results indicate that, besides the difference in latitude, climate variability in different county increases the daily usage of street lighting up to 19%. Furthermore, Brazil’s large size means that seasonality patterns in energy savings are not homogeneous, and there is a correlation between the monthly variability in sunshine duration and the latitude of mesoregions. The CDM was also shown to be suitable for ranking mesoregions with the highest levels of energy saving lighting.

  1. Producing an integrated climate-land-energy-water (CLEW) model for glaciated regions in the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delman, E. M.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Growing concern over the impact of climate change on global freshwater resources has spurred a demand for practical, basin-specific adaptation tools. The potential for water stress is particularly inflated in the glaciated watersheds of the developing world; widespread and rapid glacial retreat has forced regional resource managers to reconcile the reality of a diminishing supply with an overall increase in demand, while accounting for the underlying geopolitical and cultural context. An integrated approach, such as the development of a Climate-Land-Energy-Water (CLEW) model that examines relationships among climate, land-use, and the energy and water sectors, can be used to assess the impact of different climate change scenarios on basin sustainability and vulnerability. This study will first constrain the hydrologic budget in the Río Santa Watershed of Peru using satellite imagery, historical and contemporary stream discharge data, hydrologic modeling, climatic data analysis, and isotopic and chemical tracers. Ultimately, glacier retreat will be examined at the watershed scale and be used as an input in the CLEW model framework to assess hydrologic budget scenarios and the subsequent impact on regional economic and environmental sustainability.

  2. The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, C. H.; Lau, K. M.; Tao, W. K.; Simpson, J.

    1994-01-01

    A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated

  3. Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Auke Hoekstra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The energy domain is still dominated by equilibrium models that underestimate both the dangers and opportunities related to climate change. In reality, climate and energy systems contain tipping points, feedback loops, and exponential developments. This paper describes how to create realistic energy transition management models: quantitative models that can discover profitable pathways from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We review the literature regarding agent-based economics, disruptive innovation, and transition management and determine the following requirements. Actors must be detailed, heterogeneous, interacting, learning, and strategizing. Technology should be represented as a detailed and heterogeneous portfolio that can develop in a bottom-up manner, using endogenous feedback loops. Assumptions about discount rates and the social cost of carbon should be configurable. The model should contain interactions between the global, national, local, and individual level. A review of modelling techniques shows that equilibrium models are unsuitable and that system dynamics and discrete event simulation are too limited. The agent-based approach is found to be uniquely suited for the complex adaptive sociotechnical systems that must be modelled. But the choice for agent-based models does not mean a rejection of other approaches because they can be accommodated within the agent-based framework. We conclude with practical guidelines.

  4. An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Robinson

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.

  5. Impacts of wave energy conversion devices on local wave climate: observations and modelling from the Perth Wave Energy Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeke, Ron; Hemer, Mark; Contardo, Stephanie; Symonds, Graham; Mcinnes, Kathy

    2016-04-01

    As demonstrated by the Australian Wave Energy Atlas (AWavEA), the southern and western margins of the country possess considerable wave energy resources. The Australia Government has made notable investments in pre-commercial wave energy developments in these areas, however little is known about how this technology may impact local wave climate and subsequently affect neighbouring coastal environments, e.g. altering sediment transport, causing shoreline erosion or accretion. In this study, a network of in-situ wave measurement devices have been deployed surrounding the 3 wave energy converters of the Carnegie Wave Energy Limited's Perth Wave Energy Project. This data is being used to develop, calibrate and validate numerical simulations of the project site. Early stage results will be presented and potential simulation strategies for scaling-up the findings to larger arrays of wave energy converters will be discussed. The intended project outcomes are to establish zones of impact defined in terms of changes in local wave energy spectra and to initiate best practice guidelines for the establishment of wave energy conversion sites.

  6. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.

    and marginal costs of the power producers. Two effects of climate change on the power system were studied: changes in the hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, and changes in the electricity demand over the year caused by temperature changes. A rainfall-runoff model......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...... was established to estimate the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on reservoir inflows. The model was calibrated using observed precipitation, temperature and river discharge time series. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated from temperature data, and snow accumulation/melt was modelled using...

  7. Modelling the energy and exergy utilisation of the Mexican non-domestic sector: A study by climatic regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García Kerdan, Iván; Morillón Gálvez, David; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a bottom-up stock model to perform a holistic energy study of the Mexican non-domestic sector. The current energy and exergy flows are shown based on a categorisation by climatic regions with the aim of understanding the impact of local characteristics on regional efficiencies. Due to the limited data currently available, the study is supported by the development of a detailed archetype-based stock model using EnergyPlus as a first law analysis tool combined with an existing exergy analysis method. Twenty-one reference models were created to estimate the electric and gas use in the sector. The results indicate that sectoral energy and exergy annual input are 95.37 PJ and 94.28 PJ, respectively. Regional exergy efficiencies were found to be 17.8%, 16.6% and 23.2% for the hot-dry, hot-humid and temperate climates, respectively. The study concludes that significant potential for improvements still exists, especially in the cases of space conditioning, lighting, refrigeration, and cooking where most exergy destructions occur. Additionally, this work highlights that the method described may be further used to study the impact of large-scale refurbishments and promote national regulations and standards for sustainable buildings that takes into consideration energy and exergy indicators. - Highlights: • A bottom-up physics model was developed to analyse the Mexican commercial stock. • A detailed energy analysis by climate, buildings and end-uses is presented. • The Mexican non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 19.7%. • The lowest regional exergy efficiency is found at the hot-humid region with 16.6%. • By end use, the highest exergy destructions are caused by HVAC and lighting

  8. Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Kober, Tom; Calderon, Silvia; Clarke, Leon; Daenzer, Katie; Kitous, Alban; Labriet, Maryse; Lucena, André F. P.; Octaviano, Claudia; Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas

    2016-05-01

    In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO2 emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two- to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050.Wefind that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, depending on which model is used. Also for CCS we observe large diversity in model outcomes, which reflects the uncertainties with regard to its future implementation potential as a result of

  9. Climate sensitivity of marine energy

    OpenAIRE

    Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

    2005-01-01

    Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversi...

  10. Green Growth - an Illusion? Energy and Climate Risk: Rethinking our Developmental Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessus, B.

    2011-01-01

    The years go by and international conferences come and go, with their quota of cries of alarm and calls to action to counter climate change. But in reality few large-scale programmes have been launched anywhere in the world involving concrete action to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. As one who has campaigned for many years for policies of energy consumption control, Benjamin Dessus shows here that the energy challenge is as great as it has ever been in a world of expanding populations in which most peoples aspire to reach the developmental level of the northern countries, despite the fact that our climate probably cannot support such a state of affairs. He argues here against a certain number of common suppositions, such as the idea of focussing exclusively on CO 2 in the fight against global warming, the need for a continuous economic growth on the order of 2% per annum or excessive faith in market mechanisms to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. He also stresses the ambiguities of so-called 'green' growth and compares different energy conservation scenarios. In this way, he shows that, against a relatively dominant line of reasoning based largely on (at times near-utopian) technological solutions and the continuation of sustained economic growth, there are more effective paths based on individual/collective energy sobriety and a serious slowdown of economic growth in the most developed countries, if not indeed a total halt to that growth (though these are more ambitious in that they require a revolution in the behaviour of the most affluent peoples). He concludes by proposing some courses of action for implementing such a programme in a country like France, showing the extent to which modern modes of life are going to have to change and how urgent it now is to debate these matters, if such change is to be achieved without - excessive - pain. (author)

  11. Energy Revolution Against Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, V.

    2007-01-01

    Energy revolution is taking place in the world with objective to mitigate consequences of evident climate change, caused mostly by emissions of the greenhouse gases from combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas). The principal elements of the energy revolution are decrease in energy consumption by increase in energy efficiency and substitution of fossil fuels by renewable energies, supported by 'clean' fossil fuels and nuclear energy. (author)

  12. A Multi-Model Study of Energy Supply Investments in Latin America under Climate Control Policy Energy Economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kober, T.; Falzon, J.; van der Zwaan, B.; Calvin, K.; Kanudia, A.; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M.

    In this paper we investigate energy supply investment requirements in Latin America until 2050 through a multi-model approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We compare a business-as-usual scenario needed to satisfy anticipated future energy demand with a set of scenarios

  13. Strategies for Effective Implementation of Science Models into 6-9 Grade Classrooms on Climate, Weather, and Energy Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarker, M. B.; Stanier, C. O.; Forbes, C.; Park, S.

    2011-12-01

    strategies middle school science teachers use to implement science models into their classrooms. These teachers in this study took part in a week-long professional development designed to orient them towards appropriate use of science models for a unit on weather, climate, and energy concepts. The goal of this project is to describe the professional development and describe how teachers intend to incorporate science models into each of their individual classrooms.

  14. Energies-climate review (Panorama energies-climate) - issue 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goubet, Cecile; Beriot, Nicolas; Daurian, Aurelien; Vieillefosse, Alice; Ducastelle, Julien; Le Guen, Solenn; Strang, Axel; Courtois, Sophie; Brender, Pierre; Guibert, Olivier de; Croquette, Gilles; Simiu, Diane; Venturini, Isabelle; Hesske, Philip; Oriol, Louise; Louati, Sami; Cadin, Didier; Korman, Bernard; Defays, Julien; Balian, Armelle; Guichaoua, Sabine; Isoard, Vivien; Lamy, Jean-michel; Pelce, Frederic; Fondeville, Louis; Baumont, Thierry; Triquet, Olivier; Mouloudi, Fadwa; Quintaine, Thierry; Reizine, Stanislas; Pertuiset, Thomas; Caron, Antoine; Blanchard, Sidonie; Timsit, Isabelle; Lewis, Florian; Ducouret, Melanie; Leclercq, Martine; Derville, Isabelle; Grenon, Georgina; Thomas, Julien; Oeser, Christian; Thouin, Catherine; Dumiot, Jacques-Emmanuel; Rondeau, Claudine; Menager, Yann; Barber, Nicolas; Weill, Jonathan; Furois, Timothee; Thomines, Marie; Brunet-Lecomte, Helene; Boutot, Romary; Strang, Axel; Giraud, Jean; Thomas, Julien; Oeser, Christian; Perrette, Lionel; Breda, Willy; Panetier, Vincent; Miraval, Bruno; Delaugerre, Frederique; Leinekugel Le Cocq, Thibaut; Lemaire, Yves; Thabet, Soraya

    2013-01-01

    This issue first analyses what is at stake with energy transition: struggle against climate change, management of energy demand and promotion of energy efficiency, struggle against energy poverty, development of technologies for tomorrow's energy system. It discusses France's position within its European and international environment: European energy-climate objectives, world context of oil and gas markets, European electricity markets, imports and exports, energy bill. It presents and analyses the situation of the oil and gas sector in France: hydrocarbon exploration and production in France, refining activities, substitution fuels, oil infrastructures, oil product retailing, and gas infrastructures. It then presents the French electric system (electricity production, electricity transport and distribution grids and networks, electric system safety) and the industrial sectors involved in de-carbonated energy production: biomass, wind energy, sea energy, geothermal energy, hydroelectricity, nuclear energy, photovoltaic and thermodynamic solar energy. It addresses the industrial sectors involved in a better use of energy: dynamic control of smart energy systems (smart grids, hydrogen, energy storage), CO 2 capture and storage, de-carbonated vehicle and its ecosystem. The last part addresses oil product prices, gas prices, electricity prices, the energy tax system, and the arrangements and costs of the support to renewable energy production

  15. Nuclear energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Jimenez, A.

    2002-01-01

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO 2 emissions. (Author)

  16. Climate sensitivity of marine energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, G.P.; Wallace, A.R.

    2005-01-01

    Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversion: where the resource is constrained, production and economic performance may suffer; alternatively, stormier climates may create survival issues. Here, a relatively simple sensitivity study is used to quantify how changes in mean wind speed - as a proxy for wider climate change - influence wind and wave energy production and economics. (author)

  17. An energy-balance model with multiply-periodic and quasi-chaotic free oscillations. [for climate forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, K.; Ghil, M.

    1979-01-01

    A slightly modified version of the one-dimensional time-dependent energy-balance climate model of Ghil and Bhattacharya (1978) is presented. The albedo-temperature parameterization has been reformulated and the smoothing of the temperature distribution in the tropics has been eliminated. The model albedo depends on time-lagged temperature in order to account for finite growth and decay time of continental ice sheets. Two distinct regimes of oscillatory behavior which depend on the value of the albedo-temperature time lag are considered.

  18. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  19. Temporal and Spatial Explicit Modelling of Renewable Energy Systems : Modelling variable renewable energy systems to address climate change mitigation and universal electricity access

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeyringer, Marianne

    2017-01-01

    Two major global challenges climate change mitigation and universal electricity access, can be addressed by large scale deployment of renewable energy sources (Alstone et al., 2015). Around 60% of greenhouse gas emissions originate from energy generation and 90% of CO2 emissions are caused by fossil

  20. Opinion, energy and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-02-01

    The author comments the evolution of the results of various opinion surveys on energy in France and more particularly the high support for electricity production from renewable energies, the acceptance of the financial burden associated to energy, the fact that nuclear energy has more benefits than pitfalls but is still considered as a hazardous activity, the fact that consumers are aware of environmental risks for the planet but still have an incomplete knowledge of the energy sector and new technologies

  1. A statistical adjustment approach for climate projections of snow conditions in mountain regions using energy balance land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Projections of future climate change have been increasingly called for lately, as the reality of climate change has been gradually accepted and societies and governments have started to plan upcoming mitigation and adaptation policies. In mountain regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenue, particular attention is brought to current and future snow availability. The question of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as avalanches and debris-flows is also under consideration. In order to generate projections of snow conditions, however, downscaling global climate models (GCMs) by using regional climate models (RCMs) is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. In particular, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Simulations from GCMs and RCMs moreover suffer from biases compared to local observations, due to their rather coarse spatial and altitudinal resolution, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted using empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction methods, before they can be used to drive specific models such as energy balance land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees and the French Alps for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. We first introduce a thorough evaluation of the method using using model runs from the ALADIN RCM driven by a global reanalysis over the

  2. Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Rogan, Fionn; Deane, J.P.; Lavigne, Denis; Rout, Ullash K.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2013-01-01

    The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO 2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways. - Highlights: ► We developed a techno-economic energy model of Ireland to the year 2050. ► Reductions between 80% and 95% of GHG emissions can be technically achieved. ► A 50% emissions cut in agriculture requires a 95% reductions from the energy system. ► Extending current policies implies greater electrification and efficiency measures. ► The additional cost to achieve mitigation remain less than 2% of GDP levels in 2050.

  3. Energy system modelling and GIS to build an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for Gauteng Province, South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomaschek, Jan; Kober, Ralf; Fahl, Ulrich; Lozynskyy, Yuriy

    2016-01-01

    South Africa and specifically its economically dominant province of Gauteng aim to reduce their influence on climate change. Especially the transport sector is seen as one of the key drivers of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper describes the methodology used to combine the application of two models in order to provide a basis for informed policy recommendation for GHG mitigation. The TEMT model provides real world emission factors adapted to local conditions in Gauteng for numerous vehicle technology concepts. Those data feed into the TIMES-GEECO energy system model which identifies future technology use for different alternative scenarios. Finally, the scenario results are illustrated spatially using a GIS programme. The results of the scenario analysis show that under implemented policies GHG emissions in Gauteng are likely to increase substantially. Pollutant emissions are currently high as a result of a comparably old vehicle fleet. The spatial display of these results shows where the traffic network is concentrated and the location of so-called emission hot-spots. Energy efficient policies for the transport sector of Gauteng can achieve a significant reduction of emissions and energy consumption. Alternative powertrains and the use of locally produced biofuels can play a significant role in such policies. - Highlights: • Two models to assess the transport sector have been developed. • The methodology covers the energy system and locational information. • Application to Gauteng to provide input for a Climate Protection Concept. • Energy efficient polices will help to significantly reduce transport emissions. • Local renewable resources and efficient powertrains should be part of this policy.

  4. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  5. Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector-A review of energy and climate models forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jun

    2008-01-01

    This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100-300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600-700 million metric tons of CO 2 emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO 2 emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades

  6. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  7. Energy and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadena, Angela Ines

    2000-01-01

    Human intervention in the carbon cycle has become a relevant concern in recent times. Global warming is a phenomenon due to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG-s) carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, believed to be irreversible. CO 2 is the most important GHG its contribution to the radioactive forcing of climate is estimated in about 70%. Changes in the global concentration of these gases depend on the level of emissions as a by-product of economic activities, the natural assimilative capacity of the global ecosystem, and the abatement activities. The paper include the Colombian situation

  8. Climate and Offshore Energy Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-30

    SECuRITY CL.ASSIPIcaTIoN OF, TIns PA@elm VaeVa CLMATE ANID OFFSHORE ENERGY RESOUACES A distinguished group of government officials, scientists, engineers...about the mech- anisms of climatic systems, and gaining a better understanding of the impact of climatic change on human resources.* He continued by...atmospheric constit- uents, but he particularly emphasized " changes " in C02. He suggested that the atmospheric conditions may be better now than they were half

  9. Energy Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Energy models characterize the energy system, its evolution, and its interactions with the broader economy. The energy system consists of primary resources, including both fossil fuels and renewables; power plants, refineries, and other technologies to process and convert these r...

  10. Nuclear energy - the future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ash, Eric Sir

    2000-01-01

    In June 1999, a report entitled Nuclear Energy-The Future Climate was published and was the result of a collaboration between the Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering. The report was the work of a group of nine people, made up of scientists, engineers and an economist, whose purpose was to attempt a new and objective look at the total energy scene and specifically the future role of nuclear energy. This paper discusses the findings of that report. (author)

  11. Climate change and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hengeveld, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  12. Climate Leadership webinar on Integrating Energy and Climate Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allergan, a multi-specialty healthcare company and pharmaceutical manufacturer, discusses how it manages climate and energy risks, how these areas are linked, and how energy and climate management strategies pervade critical business decisions.

  13. Co-evolutionary organisational response development model (CORD): a case study of an Australian energy company climate change responses

    OpenAIRE

    Mishra, Kirti

    2016-01-01

    The thesis reports an investigation of the effects of the complex, evolving relationships between organisations and their environments. This examination is a case study of the responses of an Australian energy company to effects of climate change, and aims to enhance understanding of how organisational responses to climate change develop and evolve over time.    The impact of climate change on the contemporary organisational environment has multiple aspects – natural, ec...

  14. Energy and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moncada Lo Giudice, G.; Asdrubali, F.; Rossi, F.

    2007-01-01

    Are described the policies for emission reduction taken at the international level with particular reference to the European Union. Are presented recent data on greenhouse gas emissions in the EU and the link between energy production and greenhouse gases, the environmental impact of major power systems related to economic data [it

  15. The Martian climate and energy balance models with CO2/H2O atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffert, M. I.

    1986-01-01

    The analysis begins with a seasonal energy balance model (EBM) for Mars. This is used to compute surface temperature versus x = sin(latitude) and time over the seasonal cycle. The core model also computes the evolving boundaries of the CO2 icecaps, net sublimational/condensation rates, and the resulting seasonal pressure wave. Model results are compared with surface temperature and pressure history data at Viking lander sites, indicating fairly good agreement when meridional heat transport is represented by a thermal diffusion coefficient D approx. 0.015 W/sq. m/K. Condensational wind distributions are also computed. An analytic model of Martian wind circulation is then proposed, as an extension of the EMB, which incorporates vertical wind profiles containing an x-dependent function evaluated by substitution in the equation defining the diffusion coefficient. This leads to a parameterization of D(x) and of the meridional circulation which recovers the high surface winds predicted by dynamic Mars atmosphere models (approx. 10 m/sec). Peak diffusion coefficients, D approx. 0.6 w/sq m/K, are found over strong Hadley zones - some 40 times larger than those of high-latitude baroclinic eddies. When the wind parameterization is used to find streamline patterns over Martian seasons, the resulting picture shows overturning hemispheric Hadley cells crossing the equator during solstices, and attaining peak intensities during the south summer dust storm season, while condensational winds are most important near the polar caps.

  16. Health, Energy Efficiency and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is becoming a driving force for improving energy efficiency because saving energy can help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. However, it is important to balance energy saving measures with ventilation...

  17. Modeling for climate change in the aspect of nuclear energy priority: Nuclear power energy-based convergence social-humanity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woo, Tae Ho [Systemix Global Co. Ltd., Seoul, (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Following the industry expansion, the energy consumptions have increased steeply, which have produced the global warming in our lives by carbon production energies. This climate change has provoked significant natural disasters which have damaged to social as well economic matters. Considering the non-carbon production which is the major factor of global warming, nuclear energy is a newly spotlighted source as the green energy source. The climate change factor is affected by the carbon productions made by humans. Then, the nuclear energy increasing rate with the climate change factor affects to the temperature change which is expressed by annual anomaly. Fig. 6 is the protocol for climate change investigation incorporated with the nuclear industry where the climate factor like the temperature is an important index to find out the priority of nuclear energy. The increased environmental pollutions can give the expanding of nuclear energy due to the carbon gas of fossil fuels. This study showed the effectiveness of the nuclear energy by the simulations. The seasonal climate disaster like the very cold winter and very hot summer can increase the necessity of nuclear energy development which could appeal to the general public persons as well as the politicians. So, it is important for the nuclear energy manager to make people understand the importance of the nuclear energy comparing to the oil or coal fuels. The regeneration energy has been considered as the alternative source.

  18. The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommenget, D.

    2013-12-01

    The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

  19. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

  20. Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030: Synergies or trade-offs between economy, energy and climate security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Min Chai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025–2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually −0.2% in average and cumulatively −3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015–2030.

  1. Renewable energy and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Quaschning, Volker

    2010-01-01

    This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

  2. Wind-Climate Estimation Based on Mesoscale and Microscale Modeling: Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling for Wind Energy Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Frank, Helmut; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that a statistical dynamical method can be used to accurately estimate the wind climate at a wind farm site. In particular, postprocessing of mesoscale model output allows an efficient calculation of the local wind climate required for wind resource estimation at a wind...

  3. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

  4. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong and Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere. The model results indicate that both the high and low clouds are persistent throughout the summer months in both years. Because of large cloud water, low clouds significantly reduce the solar radiation flux reaching the surface, which nevertheless still dominate the surface energy balance, accounting for more than 50% of the surface heating. The low clouds also contribute significantly the downward longwave radiation to the surface with values strongly dependent on the cloud base temperature. The presence of low clouds effectively decreases the temperature and moisture gradients near surface, resulting in a substantial decrease in the sensible and latent heat fluxes from surface, which partially compensate the decrease of the net radiative cooling of the surface. For example, in the two days, May 8 and July 11 of 1988, the total cloud cover of 80% is simulated, but the respective low cloud cover (water was 63% (114 gm-2 and 22% (21 gm-2. As a result, the downward solar radiation is smaller by 161 Wm-2 in May 8. On the other hand, the cloud temperature was _ lower, yielding 56 Wm-2 smaller downward longwave radiation. The near surface temperature and gradient is more than _ smaller (and moisture gradient, leading to 21 and 81 Wm-2 smaller sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. It is also demonstrated that the model is capable to reproduce the intraseasonal variation of shortwave CRF, and catches the relationship between total cloud cover and SW CRF. The model results show the dominance of high cloud on the regional mean longwave CRF and low cloud on the intra

  5. Animating climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    DaPonte, John S.; Sadowski, Thomas; Thomas, Paul

    2006-05-01

    This paper describes a collaborative project conducted by the Computer Science Department at Southern Connecticut State University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS). Animations of output from a climate simulation math model used at GISS to predict rainfall and circulation have been produced for West Africa from June to September 2002. These early results have assisted scientists at GISS in evaluating the accuracy of the RM3 climate model when compared to similar results obtained from satellite imagery. The results presented below will be refined to better meet the needs of GISS scientists and will be expanded to cover other geographic regions for a variety of time frames.

  6. Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwaan, B.; Kober, T.; Calderon, S.; Clarke, L.; Daenzer, K.; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M.; Lucena, A.F.P.; Octaviano, C.; Di Sbroiavacca, N.

    In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be

  7. Energy policy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jean-Baptiste, Ph.; Ducroux, R.

    2001-01-01

    Twenty-two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are released in the air each year from the burning of fossil fuels. The problem of these massive emissions of CO 2 and their climatic impact have become major scientific and political issues. Future stabilization of the atmospheric CO 2 content requires a drastic decrease of CO 2 emissions worldwide. While enhancing natural carbon sinks (reforestation, soils conservation, etc...) can only buy tune for the next decades, energy savings, CO 2 capture/storage and the development of non-fossil energy sources (hydropower, nuclear, wind power,...) can be highly beneficial. In order to secure future energy needs while stabilizing the CO 2 atmospheric concentration around 550 ppm, the ratio of the CO 2 emitted per unit of energy produced must decrease from 2.6 t CO 2 /toe to 0.5-1.1 t CO 2 /toe by 2100. In a growing world economy, now dependent on fossil fuels for 90% of its energy, this will require a vast increase in the supply of carbon-free power. Among these energy sources, hydropower and nuclear energy (operated under western safety and environmental standards) are the most readily available sources capable of supplying vast amount of energy at a competitive price. Wind power is also to be encouraged, as it is expected to approach the competitiveness threshold soon. The French example, where fossil fuel CO 2 emissions were cut by 27% in a matter of a few years (1979-1986) despite increasing energy consumption, suggests that implementing CO 2 stabilization is technically feasible at a competitive price

  8. Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

    1994-01-01

    In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

  9. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  10. Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vliet, Oscar van; Krey, Volker; McCollum, David; Pachauri, Shonali; Nagai, Yu; Rao, Shilpa; Riahi, Keywan

    2012-01-01

    We use the MESSAGE model to examine multiple dimensions of sustainable development for three Asian regions in a set of scenarios developed for the Asian Modelling Exercise. Using climate change mitigation as a starting point for the analysis, we focus on the interaction of climate and energy with technology choice, energy security, energy access, and air pollution, which often have higher policy priority than climate change. Stringent climate policies drive the future energy supply in Asia from being dominated by coal and oil to a more diversified system based mostly on natural gas, coal with CCS, nuclear and renewable energy. The increase in diversity helps to improve the energy security of individual countries and regions. Combining air pollution control policies and universal energy access policies with climate policy can further help to reduce both outdoor and indoor air pollution related health impacts. Investments into the energy system must double by 2030 to achieve stringent climate goals, but are largely offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution abatement. Strong focus on end-use efficiency also helps lowering overall total costs and allows for limiting or excluding supply side technologies from the mitigation portfolio. Costs of additional energy access policies and measures are a small fraction of total energy system costs. - Highlights: ► Half of added investments in energy offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution. ► Costs for achieving universal energy access much smaller than energy system costs. ► Combined emissions and access policies further reduce air pollution impacts on health. ► Strong focus on end-use efficiency allows for more flexibility on energy sources. ► Stringent climate policy can improve energy security of Asian regions.

  11. Evaluation of climate change impacts on energy demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taseska, Verica; Markovska, Natasa; Callaway, John M.

    2012-01-01

    change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal...... electricity production mix, taking into account country’s development plans (without climate change); 2) Climate Change Damage Case, which introduces the climate changes by adjusting the heating and cooling degree days inputs, consistent with the existing national climate scenarios; and 3) Climate Change...... Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages...

  12. Energy and climate policy in Europe; Energie- und Klimapolitik in Europa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This is a publication of the Baden-Wuerttemberg state center of political education (Landeszentrale fuer Politische Bildung Baden-Wuerttemberg) on energy policy and climate policy in Europe. It discusses the following aspects: Assured supply of energy and climate policy - incompatible goals? Climate policy and energy policy in a global system; Legitimation of the EU by successful energy policy and climate policy; Emission trading: Selling of indulgences or successful instrument? Energy policy in Europe after 1945; From a beacon of hope to a phase-out model? The future of nuclear power; The future of renewable energy sources in Europe. (orig./RHM)

  13. Climate changes and energy safety in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaeffer, Roberto; Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira de; Souza, Raquel Rodrigues de; Borba, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar; Costa, Isabella Vaz Leal da; Pereira Junior, Amaro Olimpio; Cunha, Sergio Henrique F. da

    2008-01-01

    The possible effects of climate changes on the supply and demand of energy in the country are analyzed. The goal is to evaluate how the Brazilian energy system planned for 2030 would face the climate new conditions projected for the period of 2071 a 2100. The study also points out energy policy measurements which can be adopted to relief the negative impacts

  14. Biomass Energy | Climate Neutral Research Campuses | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Energy Biomass Energy Biomass from local sources can be key to a campus climate action plan biomass may fit into your campus climate action plan. Campus Options Considerations Sample Project Related biomass fuels for energy does not add to the net amount of carbon in the atmosphere. This is because the

  15. Energy Balance Models of planetary climate as a tool for investigating the habitability of terrestrial planets and its evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferri, G.; Murante, G.; Provenzale, A.; Silva, L.; Vladilo, G.

    2012-04-01

    The study of the habitability and potential for life formation of terrestrial planets requires a considerable work of modelization owing to the limited amount of experimental constraints typical of this type of research. As an example, the paucity of experimental Archean data severely limits the study of the habitability of the primitive Earth at the epoch of the origin of life. In the case of exoplanets the amount of experimental information available is quite limited and the need for modelization strong. Here we focus on the modelization of the surface planetary temperature, a key thermodynamical quantity used to define the habitability. Energy Balance Models (EBM) of planetary climate provide a simple way to calculate the temperature-latitude profile of terrestrial planets with a small amount of computing resources. Thanks to this fact EBMs offer an excellent tool to exploring a wide range of parameter space and therefore testing the effects of variations of physical/chemical quantities unconstrained by experimental data. In particular, one can easily probe possible scenarios of habitability at different stages of planetary evolution. We have recently implemented one-dimensional EBMs featuring the possibility of probing variations of astronomical and geophysical parameters, such as stellar luminosity, orbital semi-major axis and eccentricity, obliquity of the planetary axis, planet rotational velocity, land/ocean surface fractions and thermal capacities, and latitudinal heat diffusion. After testing our models against results obtained in previous work (Williams & Kasting 1997, Icarus, 129, 254; Spiegel et al. 2008, ApJ, 681, 1609), we introduced a novel parametrization of the diffusion coefficient as a function of the stellar zenith distance. Our models have been validated using the mean temperature-latitude profiles of the present Earth and its seasonal variations; the global albedo has been used as an additional constraint. In this work we present specific

  16. The impact of climate change on the European energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowling, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented. Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. - Highlights: • Expanded coverage of climate change impacts on European energy system. • Demand side impacts are larger than supply side impacts. • Power from fossil and nuclear sources decreases, renewable energy increases. • Impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. • Synergies exist between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation

  17. Energy policies and climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, A.

    1994-01-01

    One year after the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, an assessment is made of what progress is being made towards sustainability. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate change has provided the expert background for action to protect the climate. It lists some of the measured and noticed first signs of climate change as identified by the German Bundestag Enquete Commission, and mentions the effects of climatically induced catastrophes on the world's insurance industry and the fact that the Third World is likely to suffer most from climatic change. A Greenpeace report advocates the phasing out of fossil fuels and of nuclear power as a way to combat climatic change. The article reviews developments relevant to protecting the climate worldwide and specifically in the Netherlands, incorporating Greenpeace's views on these

  18. Climate: Policy, Modeling, and Federal Priorities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koonin, S.; Department Of Energy Office Of The Under SecretaryScience

    2010-12-01

    The Administration has set ambitious national goals to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The US and other countries involved in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change continue to work toward a goal of establishing a viable treaty that would encompass limits on emissions and codify actions that nations would take to reduce emissions. These negotiations are informed by the science of climate change and by our understanding of how changes in technology and the economy might affect the overall climate in the future. I will describe the present efforts within the U.S. Department of Energy, and the federal government more generally, to address issues related to climate change. These include state-of-the-art climate modeling and uncertainty assessment, economic and climate scenario planning based on best estimates of different technology trajectories, adaption strategies for climate change, and monitoring and reporting for treaty verification.

  19. Wind energy under cold climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B.

    1999-03-01

    There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)

  20. Energy markets and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krozer, Yoram

    2017-01-01

    Innovations mechanisms on energy markets are discussed, in particular valorization of energy products which invokes decarbonization of energy recourses. The valorization, meaning higher value of energy products, is expressed as electrification and entry of modern renewable energy based on

  1. Resolution on the program energy-climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This document presents the resolutions proposed in the resolution proposition n. 1261 and concerning the european Commission program on the energy policies and the climate change. Twelve resolution are presented on the energy sources development, the energy efficiency, the energy economy and the carbon taxes. (A.L.B.)

  2. Energy, climate change and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simioni, M.; Stevens, G.W.

    2007-01-01

    There is now very little debate that the earth's climate is changing, and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence. Many causes have been postulated and speculation about the eventual outcomes abounds. Whatever eventuates, society will have to adapt to a new and changing climate

  3. Climate and Energy Policy in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Csete

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The energy problem has been redefined as one of the most important elements of sustainable development by climate change, adaptation and mitigation. Meeting energy needs is always a current issue in Hungary, irrespective of climate change because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, limited opportunities to replace them with domestic production, and the pollution associated with using fossil energy sources. Increasing effectiveness and saving energy can provide relatively short-term solutions with bearable costs and a relatively quick return on investment. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview about the climate and energy policy in Hungary with a special focus on the new energy strategy. Energy policy has a pivotal role in the economic recovery plan of the Hungarian government. The National Energy Strategy 2030 taking shape in Hungary takes climate policy into account with respect to adaptation and mitigation and lists renewable energy sources as the second most important tool for achieving strategic goals. As in most countries, it is also possible in Hungary to introduce climate strategy measures with zero social costs. The expedient management of climate change requires the combination of prevention, adaptation and dissemination initiatives. Strategies must meet a dual requirement: they must face the economic risks associated with premature measures, while also considering the adverse effects of delay.

  4. Addressing climate and energy misconceptions - teaching tools offered by the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, A. U.; Ledley, T. S.; Kirk, K. B.; Grogan, M.; McCaffrey, M. S.; Buhr, S. M.; Manduca, C. A.; Fox, S.; Niepold, F.; Howell, C.; Lynds, S. E.

    2011-12-01

    Despite a prevalence of peer-reviewed scientific research and high-level reports by intergovernmental agencies (e.g., IPCC) that document changes in our climate and consequences for human societies, the public discourse regards these topics as controversial and sensitive. The chasm between scientific-based understanding of climate systems and public understanding can most easily be addressed via high quality, science-based education on these topics. Well-trained and confident educators are required to provide this education. However, climate science and energy awareness are complex topics that are rapidly evolving and have a great potential for controversy. Furthermore, the interdisciplinary nature of climate science further increases the difficulty for teachers to stay abreast of the science and the policy. Research has shown that students and educators alike hold misconceptions about the climate system in general and the causes and effects of climate change in particular. The NSF-funded CLEAN Pathway (http://cleanet.org) as part of the National Science Digital Library (http://www.nsdl.org) strives to address these needs and help educators address misconceptions by providing high quality learning resources and professional development opportunities to support educators of grade levels 6 through 16. The materials focus on teaching climate science and energy use. The scope and framework of the CLEAN Pathway is defined by the Essential Principles of Climate Science (CCSP, 2009) and the Energy Literacy Principles recently developed by the Department of Energy. Following this literacy-based approach, CLEAN helps with developing mental models to address misconceptions around climate science and energy awareness through a number of different avenues. These are: 1) Professional development opportunities for educators - interactive webinars for secondary teachers and virtual workshops for college faculty, 2) A collection of scientifically and pedagogically reviewed, high

  5. An analytical model for climatic predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1990-12-01

    A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

  6. Nuclear Energy: Combating Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppler, Jan Horst; Paillere, Henri; )

    2015-10-01

    contribution of non-OECD countries. COP 21 offers the opportunity to include nuclear energy firmly in future flexibility mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), or a potential successor in the post-2020 period, thus enabling nuclear full potential to reduce climate-change inducing greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this objective, however, it is important to understand the current and potential contribution of nuclear power in reducing future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the appropriate measures that governments can take to address outstanding social, institutional and financial issues so as to ensure the necessary expansion of nuclear generating capacity that will make the 2 deg. scenario a reality

  7. Modeling the intersections of Food, Energy, and Water in climate-vulnerable Ethiopia with an application to small-scale irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.

    2017-12-01

    Africa is home to some of the most climate vulnerable populations in the world. Energy and agricultural development have diverse impacts on the region's food security and economic well-being from the household to the national level, particularly considering climate variability and change. Our ultimate goal is to understand coupled Food-Energy-Water (FEW) dynamics across spatial scales in order to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes to FEW development strategies in Ethiopia. We are developing bottom-up and top-down multi-scale models, spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture the FEW linkages across communities and climatic adaptation zones. The focus of this presentation is the sub-national scale multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial-equilibrium model with coupled food and energy sector for Ethiopia. With fixed large-scale economic, demographic, and resource factors from the national scale computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and inferences of behavior parameters from the local scale agent-based model (ABM), the MME studies how shocks such as drought (crop failure) and development of resilience technologies would influence FEW system at a sub-national scale. The MME model is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players. It includes production, storage, and consumption of food and energy at spatially disaggregated zones, and transportation in between with endogenously modeled infrastructure. The aggregated players for each zone have different roles such as crop producers, storage managers, and distributors, who make decisions according to their own but interdependent objective functions. The food and energy supply chain across zones is therefore captured. Ethiopia is dominated by rain-fed agriculture with only 2% irrigated farmland. Small-scale irrigation has been promoted as a resilience technology that could potentially play a critical role in food security and economic well-being in

  8. Changing Climate in the MENA Means Changing Energy Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Fenech

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The leading authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC hasconcluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and will continue for centuries. The regionsin the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA have experienced numerous extreme climate events overthe past few years including the 2009 flooding in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; the 2005 dust stormin Al Asad, Iraq; water scarcity throughout the Arab MENA; and the rising sea levels on the Nile Deltacoast, Egypt. A climate baseline can be developed for regions in the MENA by locating climate stations inthe study area using observations made in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS. For projectionsof future climate, global climate models (GCMs, mathematical equations that describe the physics, fluidmotion and chemistry of the atmosphere, are the most advanced science available. The Climate ResearchLab at the University of Prince Edward Island has a dataset available to researchers, called the Climate,Ocean and Atmosphere Data Exchange (COADE, that provides easy access to the output from fortyglobal climate models used in the deliberations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s(IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 including monthly global climate model projections of future climatechange for a number of climate parameters including temperature and precipitation. Over the past 50years, climate changes in the MENA Region have led to increases in annual mean temperatures anddecreases in annual total precipitation. Applying all four greenhouse gas emission futures on a baseclimate normal of 1981-2010 to an ensemble of forty global climate models used in the Fifth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5 results in future temperatureincreases for the MENA Region ranging from 1.6 to 2.3 degrees Celsius, and in a range of futureprecipitation changes from reductions of 11 percent to increases of 36 percent

  9. Green paper on energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, R.; Whitmore, J.; Shariff, N.

    2005-11-01

    This green paper was created by the Canadian Environmental Network to initiate a dialogue on climate change and energy issues. Recommendations for energy strategies for Canada beyond 2012 were presented. An overview of recent climate science was presented, as well as various stabilization scenarios needed to prevent further climate change. A review of global energy trends working for and against action to prevent climate change was also provided. It was suggested that the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations can only be achieved when the United States and large developing economies such as China, India and Brazil transform themselves into renewable-energy based economies. Renewable energy and energy efficiency must play a central role in future climate change regimes. It was suggested that nuclear power cannot be considered as an option to reduce GHGs due to its high cost, and on-going public concerns over long-term waste disposal, fuel-cycle health and safety. A viable global framework for stabilizing GHG concentrations built on the current regimes of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol was recommended. It was suggested that richer industrialized nations must take the lead by pursuing absolute reductions and providing assistance to developing nations for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. It was recommended that developing nations should contribute to global mitigation efforts by pursuing low-carbon intensity development paths, and that effective climate change policies must address the economic barriers faced by developing nations. Other recommendations included a regulatory regime for major energy producers and users incorporating progressively lower GHG emission targets; the elimination of all subsidies for the fossil fuel and nuclear fuel-cycle and power industries; the adoption of a national renewable energy strategy; the implementation of a national energy conservation and efficiency

  10. File 'Energy-climate actions in Sweden'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    In a first part, this publication briefly presents some basic data and information on Sweden (geography, population, economy, administrative organisation, powers of local authorities, local finances), the Swedish 'energy profile' (consumption, intensity, imports and exports), greenhouse gas emissions (total and per sector), and the energy-climate strategy (impacts of climate change, national climatic strategy, national measures, action framework for local authorities). The second part addresses one of these action frameworks, the Klimatkommunernas network. It describes this network, its objectives, and possibilities for communities to join it. It describes its activities: information, publication of a strategic document of climate-energy actions for municipalities, examples of projects. The third part presents experiments performed by different local communities (Kristianstad, Vaexjoe, Malmoe, and Lund). For each of them are presented: the energy strategy (objectives, strategy, adaptation, energy-climate follow-up, application and actual measures), and some specific measures. These specific examples can be integrated systems based on biogas and biomass, a zero fossil fuel objective with the use of renewable energies for heat and cold production, for electricity production and to improve energy efficiency, to promote green fuels in transports, to reduce the impact of transports on climate, a sustainable town planning, environmental management. Some features are then highlighted in the adopted approach for these examples: a systemic, collaborative, participative and communicative approach

  11. No energy security without climate security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hiller, M.

    2006-06-01

    WWF urges the G8 nations to embark on a serious global 'Climate and Energy Security Plan' akin in dimension to the Marshall plan after the Second World War. The plan would aim at dramatically augmenting energy efficiency measures and renewable energy sources within the next five years

  12. Action strategy paper : climate change and energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-10-01

    This strategy paper considers how the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) might incorporate goals to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, prepare for climate change impacts on transportation systems, and reduce energy with in the GO TO ...

  13. Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

    2005-01-01

    Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However, in common with other renewables, it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed, evidence indicates that wave heights have been changing over the last 40 years, although there is no proven link to global warming. Changes in the wave climate will impa...

  14. Time to refine key climate policy models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Alexander R.

    2018-05-01

    Ambition regarding climate change at the national level is critical but is often calibrated with the projected costs — as estimated by a small suite of energy-economic models. Weaknesses in several key areas in these models will continue to distort policy design unless collectively addressed by a diversity of researchers.

  15. Modelling Interglacial Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

    the impact of a changing sea ice cover. The first part focusses on the last interglacial climate (125,000 years before present) which was characterized by substantial warming at high northern latitudes due to an increased insolation during summer. The simulations reveal that the oceanic changes dominate......Past warm climate states could potentially provide information on future global warming. The past warming was driven by changed insolation rather than an increased greenhouse effect, and thus the warm climate states are expected to be different. Nonetheless, the response of the climate system......, with maximum warming occurring in winter. The three scenarios all affect the climate beyond the Arctic, especially the mid-latitude circulation which is sensitive to the location of the ice loss. Together, the results presented in this thesis illustrate that the changes in the Arctic sea ice cover...

  16. EU energy and climate change strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graça Carvalho, Maria da

    2012-01-01

    This paper will summarise the European Strategy for Energy and Climate Change. In current international negotiations Europe has proposed a 20% reduction in GHG (greenhouse gases) in the developed countries by 2020 or 30% should there be an international agreement in the domain. However it is important to define measures to achieve the targets. One of the principal tools is to improve energy efficiency under the energy efficiency action plan, which will help to achieve a 20% energy saving by 2020. On the other hand, the amount of energy from renewable sources consumed in Europe will have to rise from its current level of 8.5%–20% by 2020. These are ambitious but achievable targets. Nonetheless, these can only be achieved through strong investment in areas of the knowledge triangle which strengthens research and innovation in the energy sector in Europe. The paper covers European Energy and Climate Change Policy, the European Strategic Energy Technology plan, the consequences of the Lisbon Treaty, European and national Road maps to a low carbon economy, the Energy Efficiency Plan for 2011 and finishes with a brief consideration of the EU’s energy infrastructure priorities. -- Highlights: ► This paper summarises the European Strategy for Energy and Climate Change. ► Reduction of GHG emissions by 30%-international agreement or −20% without agreement. ► Use of 20% of renewable energies by 2020. ► Increase of energy efficiency of 20% by 2020. ► Consolidating of the internal energy market.

  17. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

    2014-01-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

  18. Smart energy strategies. Meeting the climate change challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This book published by the Energy Science Center (ESC) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich presents a wide selection of reports on how the challenge of dealing with climate change can be met. The 69 reports included cover a wide range of topics ranging from traffic modelling, biofuels and electrification of power trains, through demand-side management, electricity production and distribution and life cycle assessment, to the integration of wind power and renewable energy technologies. Also, climate policy matters are dealt with as are nano-technology applications in the energy area and the integration of energy conversion and production processes and waste management

  19. Smart energy strategies. Meeting the climate change challenge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This book published by the Energy Science Center (ESC) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich presents a wide selection of reports on how the challenge of dealing with climate change can be met. The 69 reports included cover a wide range of topics ranging from traffic modelling, biofuels and electrification of power trains, through demand-side management, electricity production and distribution and life cycle assessment, to the integration of wind power and renewable energy technologies. Also, climate policy matters are dealt with as are nano-technology applications in the energy area and the integration of energy conversion and production processes and waste management.

  20. Towards a calibration of building energy models: A case study from the Spanish housing stock in the Mediterranean climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blázquez, T.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Current energy policies focus on retrofitting to achieve Horizon 2020 aims, especially concerning the residential stock constructed before the first thermal regulations. According to this, improving energy efficiency and interior comfort conditions in buildings must be supported by the knowledge of its real energy performance. Due to uncertainty and the lack of information on the current energy performance of housing and its real operational conditions, discrepancies between the results obtained and the measured data arise. Housing monitoring under real occupational conditions become essential for a better understanding of environmental behavior of residential building stock. Our aim is to show the calibration process, based on monitoring data obtained from a group of dwellings of national heritage interest built in the 1950s in Seville (a Mediterranean climate city. Calibration allows simulation results to approximate to current environmental conditions, aiming to predict and optimize the potential for subsequent environmental and energy implementation.Las actuales políticas energéticas europeas proponen la rehabilitación para poder alcanzar los objetivos del Horizonte 2020, especialmente del parque residencial construido antes de las primeras normativas térmicas, debiendo cimentarse la mejora en eficiencia energética y confort en el conocimiento de su comportamiento energético real. Aparecen divergencias entre resultados reales y de simulación debido a las incertidumbres y falta de información sobre el estado actual y las condiciones reales de uso y operacionales. La monitorización bajo condiciones de ocupación real resulta imprescindible para conocer el comportamiento energético y ambiental del parque residencial. Nuestro objetivo es mostrar el proceso de calibración de modelos energéticos, a partir de la monitorización, de unas viviendas de interés patrimonial construidas en los años cincuenta en Sevilla, ciudad de clima

  1. The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheridan Few

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model, to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%, and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.

  2. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Both the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report stressed the need for the...

  3. New Energy Utility Business Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, V.

    2016-01-01

    Recently a lot of big changes happened in the power sector: energy efficiency and renewable energy sources are quickly progressing, distributed or decentralised generation of electricity is expanding, climate change requires reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and price volatility and incertitude of fossil fuel supply is common. Those changes have led to obsolescence of vertically integrated business models which have dominated in energy utility organisations for a hundred years and new business models are being introduced. Those models take into account current changes in the power sector and enable a wider application of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially for consumers, with the decentralisation of electricity generation and complying with the requirements of climate and environment preservation. New business models also solve the questions of financial compensations for utilities because of the reduction of centralised energy generation while contributing to local development and employment.(author).

  4. Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generation (ReEDS Model Analysis) U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Modeling and Analysis Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis NREL's energy-water modeling and analysis vulnerabilities from various factors, including water. Example Projects Renewable Electricity Futures Study

  5. Climate change policy is an energy problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, C.; Lightfoot, H.D.

    1999-01-01

    In an important respect the climate change (global warming) problem is an energy problem. Any policy aimed at substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will require large amounts of carbon free energy as substitutes for fossil fuels. No conceivable rates of improvement in energy efficiency and/or changes in lifestyles will obviate the need for vast amounts of carbon free energy if GHG emissions are to be reduced and the atmospheric concentration of carbon eventually stabilized. Where will such large amounts of carbon free energy come from? The renewable energies (solar, wind, biomass) are dilute and enormously land-using. Their potential contribution is seemingly limited in a world in which competing demands for land for food production, living space, leisure activities, ecological preserve, and natural resource production are increasing. Nuclear energy is controversial (fission) or problematic (fusion). Fuel cells require hydrogen which must be produced using some other form of energy. Tapping the earth's mantle with its vast amount of geothermal energy may be a future possibility. The present limitations of existing alternatives to fossil fuels suggest climate change policy should focus to a greater extent on what 'can' be done, rather than the present emphasis on what 'should' be done. Once refocused, the aim of climate policy should be to spur a decades long search for and development of new carbon free energy sources and technologies capable of displacing fossil fuels and of eventually meeting the world's baseload energy requirements. (author)

  6. Climatic change and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, M.

    2000-08-01

    The data presented in the different chapters lead to show that nuclear energy ids not a sustainable energy sources for the following reasons: investments in nuclear energy account financing that lacks to energy efficiency programmes. The nuclear programmes have negative effects such the need of great electric network, the need of highly qualified personnel, the freezing of innovation in the fields of supply and demand, development of small performing units. The countries resort to nuclear energy are among the biggest carbon dioxide emitters, because big size nuclear power plants lead to stimulate electric power consumption instead of inducing its rational use. Nuclear energy produces only electric power then a part of needs concerns heat (or cold) and when it is taken into account nuclear energy loses its advantages to the profit of cogeneration installations. Finally nuclear energy is a dangerous energy source, difficult to control as the accident occurring at Tokai MURA showed it in 1998. The problem of radioactive wastes is not still solved and the nuclear proliferation constitutes one of the most important threat at the international level. (N.C.)

  7. Local authorities in the context of energy and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, Gabriele; Cioccolanti, Luca; Polonara, Fabio; Brandoni, Caterina

    2012-01-01

    Several measures to boost the energy system towards a low-carbon future can be planned and implemented by local authorities, such as energy-saving initiatives in public buildings and lighting, information campaigns, and renewable energy pilot projects. This work analyzes the public administration's role in energy and climate policies by assessing carbon-lowering measures for properties and services managed directly by local governments in central Italy. Both short- and long-term schemes were considered in the analysis of local authority energy strategies. The MARKAL-TIMES energy model was applied to long-term energy planning to assess the effect of low-carbon initiatives on public-sector energy consumption up to 2030. Two energy scenarios were built, i.e. a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario based on current or soon-to-be-adopted national policies, and an Exemplary Public Scenario (EPS) including some further virtuous local policies suggested by local authorities. Our results show that a 20% primary energy reduction can be achieved with respect to the baseline year by means of short-term energy policies (5-year time span), while a primary energy saving of about 30% can be reached with longer-term energy policies (25-year time span), even after taking the increase in energy demand into account. This work goes to show the part that local governments can play in energy policy and their contribution to the achievement of climate goals. - Highlights: ► Assessment of Local Administration (LA) role in energy and climate policy. ► Analysis of both short-term and long-term carbon lowering measures. ► Use of MARKAL-TIMES model generator for long-term energy analysis. ► 20% primary energy reduction can be reached with short-term energy policies. ► 30% primary energy reduction can be reached with longer-term energy policies.

  8. Climate change and energy: The implications for the Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez Arriaga, J. I.

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the mutual implications between the climate change problem and the actual energy-at-a-crossroads situation of the unsustainable world energy model. The implications for the Spanish case are studied as a case example. The paper provides a brief review of the scientific evidence on climate change, analyzes the causes of the present energy dilemma and characterizes the problem to be addressed. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all countries, with such a diversity of interests. The paper also exposes the most plausible framework for the future climate regime, the basic components of such a regime, the role to be played by the major stake holders and some guidelines for future negotiations. (Author)

  9. Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirza, M. [Environment Canada, Fredericton, NB (Canada). Adaptation and Impacts Research Division

    2007-07-01

    The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs.

  10. Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirza, M.

    2007-01-01

    The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs

  11. Climate warming and perception of energy resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boy, Daniel

    2014-06-01

    Drawing from a set of surveys, the aim of the present paper is to identify elements concerning the representations of climate change, the relation of which with daily energy use is not always clear. More precisely, in the field of energy consumption, several surveys allow a more precise vision of the interest for renewable energies and of the relationship between nuclear energy and society. The annual surveys carried out for more than ten years by ADEME (environment and energy mastering agency) allow a diachronic view of the evolution of climate change perception and of political events which have influenced it. The interpretation of the results points out the sensitivity of climate change perception to events, and particularly to political hazards. The renewable energies mirage has tended to fade with the numerous current debates. The adhesion of French public opinion to nuclear energy remains significant as, even after the Fukushima accident, a majority of individuals investigated are in favor of this still contested source of energy, including by people with high scientific literacy. Nevertheless, the energy issue, and particularly when it comes to nuclear energy, has become strongly politicized. (author)

  12. Challenges to a climate stabilizing energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, C.; Dilmaghani, M.; Baksi, S.

    2007-01-01

    The paper surveys the major challenges to stabilizing the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Climate change, and policies to deal with it, is viewed as an energy problem. The energy problem stems from the fact that no combination of carbon-free energies is currently capable of displacing fossil fuels as the main sources of the world's base load energy requirements. The paper provides rough estimates of the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize climate, the potential contribution of 'conventional' carbon-free energies, the contribution of renewable energies, and the size of an 'advanced energy technology gap'. The findings indicate that stabilizing CO 2 concentration will require a long-term commitment to research, develop, and eventually deploy new energy sources and technologies including hydrogen. The paper suggests that the role of technology is what makes stabilizing CO 2 concentration economically feasible. In this respect energy technology and economics are complementary, with advances in the former requiring something more than a reliance on market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emission permits. The analysis has implications for the credibility of commitments to target climate change-related factors such as CO 2 emissions.(author)

  13. Challenges to a climate stabilizing energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, Chris; Baksi, Soham; Dilmaghani, Maryam

    2007-01-01

    The paper surveys the major challenges to stabilizing the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Climate change, and policies to deal with it, is viewed as an energy problem. The energy problem stems from the fact that no combination of carbon-free energies is currently capable of displacing fossil fuels as the main sources of the world's base load energy requirements. The paper provides rough estimates of the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize climate, the potential contribution of 'conventional' carbon-free energies, the contribution of renewable energies, and the size of an 'advanced energy technology gap'. The findings indicate that stabilizing CO 2 concentration will require a long-term commitment to research, develop, and eventually deploy new energy sources and technologies including hydrogen. The paper suggests that the role of technology is what makes stabilizing CO 2 concentration economically feasible. In this respect energy technology and economics are complementary, with advances in the former requiring something more than a reliance on market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emission permits. The analysis has implications for the credibility of commitments to target climate change-related factors such as CO 2 emissions

  14. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, Olivier [GERAD and Department of Management Sciences, HEC Montreal, Montreal (Qc) (Canada); Edwards, Neil R. [Earth and Environmental Sciences, CEPSAR, Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stocker, Thomas F. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. (author)

  15. Energy and Climate. Bridging the Geopolitical Gaps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slingerland, S.; Van den Heuvel, S.

    2009-07-01

    Climate change is a 'hot' subject as an international political topic, and finding more superlatives about climate change after last year' presentation of Al Gore's Inconvenient Truths is difficult. At the 2009 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen a successor has to be found to the present Kyoto Protocol. It is now generally recognized that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have a detrimental effect on the global climate, and emissions seem to increase even more rapidly than when the most pessimistic climate change scenarios are taken into account.1 Fossil energy use is mainly responsible for these emissions. However, despite increasing worldwide recognition that climate change is indeed a serious global problem and mounting rhetoric from political leaders, there is still little evidence that the fundamental changes needed to prevent the potential dangers of climate change are being addressed. This chapter argues that there are at least three geopolitical gaps that need to be closed in order to reach an effective agreement in Copenhagen in 2009. The gaps are closely related to the global political and economic structure of energy supply and demand. They concern a divide, firstly between the United States and Europe, secondly between industrialised and developing countries, and thirdly between fossil fuel exporting and importing countries.

  16. Energy and Climate. Bridging the Geopolitical Gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slingerland, S.; Van den Heuvel, S.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is a 'hot' subject as an international political topic, and finding more superlatives about climate change after last year' presentation of Al Gore's Inconvenient Truths is difficult. At the 2009 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen a successor has to be found to the present Kyoto Protocol. It is now generally recognized that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have a detrimental effect on the global climate, and emissions seem to increase even more rapidly than when the most pessimistic climate change scenarios are taken into account.1 Fossil energy use is mainly responsible for these emissions. However, despite increasing worldwide recognition that climate change is indeed a serious global problem and mounting rhetoric from political leaders, there is still little evidence that the fundamental changes needed to prevent the potential dangers of climate change are being addressed. This chapter argues that there are at least three geopolitical gaps that need to be closed in order to reach an effective agreement in Copenhagen in 2009. The gaps are closely related to the global political and economic structure of energy supply and demand. They concern a divide, firstly between the United States and Europe, secondly between industrialised and developing countries, and thirdly between fossil fuel exporting and importing countries.

  17. Major economies Forum on energy and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The Major Economies Forum is intended to facilitate an open dialogue among major developed and developing economies, help generate the political leadership necessary to achieve a successful outcome at the United Nations climatic change conference in Copenhagen, and advance the exploration of concrete initiatives and joint ventures that increase the supply of clean energy while cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The Forum's second preparatory meeting was held in Paris in May 2009, mainly focused on greenhouse gas emissions reduction actions and objectives, the diffusion of clean technologies, the financing of activities for climate protection and adaptation to climatic change impacts

  18. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

  19. Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Grahn, M.; Kitous, A.; Kim, S.H.; Kyle, P.

    2013-01-01

    Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global

  20. Climate and energy use in glazed spaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, M.

    1996-11-01

    One objective of the thesis has been to elucidate the relationship between building design and the climate, thermal comfort and energy requirements in different types of glazed spaces. Another object has been to study the effect of the glazed spaces on energy requirements in adjacent buildings. It has also been the object to develop a simple calculation method for the assessment of temperatures and energy requirements in glazed spaces. The research work has mainly comprised case studies of existing buildings with glazed spaces and energy balance calculations using both the developed steady-state method and a dynamic building energy simulation program. Parameters such as the geometry of the building, type of glazing, orientation, thermal inertia, airtightness, ventilation system and sunshades have been studied. These parameters are of different importance for each specific type of glazed space. In addition, the significance of each of these parameters varies for different types of glazed spaces. The developed calculation method estimates the minimum and mean temperature in glazed spaces and the energy requirements for heating and cooling. The effect of the glazed space on the energy requirement of the surrounding buildings can also be estimated. It is intended that the method should be applied during the preliminary design stage so that the effect which the design of the building will have on climate and energy requirement may be determined. The method may provide an insight into how glazed spaces behave with regard to climate and energy. 99 refs

  1. Energy security and climate policy. Assessing interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-03-28

    World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising. This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly. The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The 'indicators' are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.

  2. Energy policy for integrating the building environmental performance model of an air conditioned building in a subtropical climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mui, K.W.

    2006-01-01

    For an air conditioned building, the major electricity consumption is by the heating, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. As energy saving strategies may be in conflict with the criteria of indoor air quality and thermal comfort, a concept of the building environmental performance model (BEPM) has been developed to optimize energy consumption in HVAC systems without any deterioration of the indoor air quality and thermal comfort. The BEPM is divided into two main modules: the adaptive comfort temperature (ACT) module and the new demand control ventilation (nDCV) module. This study aims to enhance and prompt the conventional operation of the air side systems by incorporating temperature reset with the adaptive comfort temperature control and the new demand control ventilation system in high rise buildings in Hong Kong. A new example weather year (1991) was established as a reference to compute the energy use of HVAC systems in buildings in order to obtain more representative data for predicting annual energy consumption. A survey of 165 Hong Kong office buildings was conducted and it provided valuable information on the existing HVAC design values in different grades of private commercial buildings in Hong Kong. It was found that the actual measured values of indoor temperature were lower than the design ones. Furthermore, with the new example weather year and the integration of the BEPM into Grade A private office buildings in Hong Kong, the total energy saving of the air conditioning systems was calculated (i.e. a saving of HK$122 million in electrical consumption per year) while the thermal comfort for the occupants was also maintained

  3. Impacts of climate change on the food-energy-water nexus in the upper Yellow River Basin: An integrated hydro-economic modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Y.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    The large-scale reservoir system built on the upper Yellow River serves multiple purposes. The generated hydropower supplies over 60% of the entire electricity for the regional power grid while the irrigated crop production feeds almost one-third of the total population throughout the whole river basin. Moreover, the reservoir system also bears the responsibility for controlling ice flood, which occurs during the non-flood season due to winter ice freezing followed by spring thawing process, and could be even more disastrous than the summer flood. The contradiction of water allocation to satisfy multi-sector demands while mitigating ice flood risk has been longstanding. However, few researchers endeavor to employ the nexus thinking to addressing the complexities involved in all the interlinked purposes. In this study, we develop an integrated hydro-economic model that can be used to explore both the tradeoffs and synergies between the multiple purposes, based on which the water infrastructures (e.g., reservoir, diversion canal, pumping well) can be coordinated for maximizing the co-benefits of multiple sectors. The model is based on a node-link schematic of multiple operations including hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and the conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources. In particular, the model depicts some details regarding reservoir operation rules during the ice season using two indicators, i.e., flow control period and flow control level. The rules are obtained from historical records using data mining techniques under different climate conditions, and they are added to the model as part of the system constraints. Future reservoir inflow series are generated by a hydrological model with future climate scenarios projected by General Circulation Model (GCM). By analyzing the model results under the various climate scenarios, the future possible shifting trajectory of the food-energy-water system characteristics will be derived compared to

  4. Energy and Climate Change (Executive Summary)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    World Energy Council

    2007-01-01

    The world needs urgently to develop a coherent and practical approach to reducing greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions. Energy professionals from across the world have been examining climate change policies to see what works in promoting sustainable development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has recently confirmed that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal and the Stern Report has argued that early action to combat climate change makes economic sense. However, existing efforts are clearly insufficient - most countries with targets under Kyoto Protocol are not on track to meeting them and many countries do not have Kyoto targets. As a result, ghg emissions are still rising and are forecast to go on doing so for decades to come. The problem is not a lack of policies to deal with climate change - some thousands of policies have been introduced, both by countries within the Kyoto system and those outside, and the effort is under way to develop a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. Yet so far those policies are not proving adequate to the scale of the problem. There is a pressing need to understand why they are failing and to implement measures that are more effective in reducing emissions, particularly from the energy sector, which accounts for around two thirds of total ghg emissions. The WEC has therefore undertaken a Study of Energy and Climate Change, drawing on the collective experience and resources of energy professionals worldwide. It has looked in detail at the impact of existing climate change measures and how effective they have been in promoting sustainable development, using the criteria of the three A's - accessibility (to affordable energy); acceptability (of the energy sources used, particularly in environmental terms); and availability (how secure and reliable are those sources?). It is important to remember that sustainable development is not only about the environment - policies which fail to contribute to economic and social

  5. Climate change, energy, sustainability and pavements

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalakrishnan, Kasthurirangan; Harvey, John

    2014-01-01

    Climate change, energy production and consumption, and the need to improve the sustainability of all aspects of human activity are key inter-related issues for which solutions must be found and implemented quickly and efficiently.  To be successfully implemented, solutions must recognize the rapidly changing socio-techno-political environment and multi-dimensional constraints presented by today's interconnected world.  As part of this global effort, considerations of climate change impacts, energy demands, and incorporation of sustainability concepts have increasing importance in the design,

  6. Energy modelling software

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Osburn, L

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry has turned to energy modelling in order to assist them in reducing the amount of energy consumed by buildings. However, while the energy loads of buildings can be accurately modelled, energy models often under...

  7. The surface energy, water, carbon flux and their intercorrelated seasonality in a global climate-vegetation coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Dan.; Jinjun Ji

    2007-01-01

    The sensible and latent heat fluxes, representatives of the physical exchange processes of energy and water between land and air, are the two crucial variables controlling the surface energy partitioning related to temperature and humidity. The net primary production (NPP), the major carbon flux exchange between vegetation and atmosphere, is of great importance for the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The fluxes are simulated by a two-way coupled model, Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model-Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (AVIM-GOALS) in which the surface physical and physiological processes are coupled with general circulation model (GCM), and the global spatial and temporal variation of the fluxes is studied. The simulated terrestrial surface physical fluxes are consistent with the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA40) in the global distribution, but the magnitudes are generally 20-40 W/m 2 underestimated. The annual NPP agrees well with the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) NPP data except for the lower value in northern high latitudes. The surface physical fluxes, leaf area index (LAI) and NPP of the global mid-latitudes, especially between 30 deg N-50 deg N, show great variation in annual oscillation amplitudes. And all physical and biological fields in northern mid-latitudes have the largest seasonality with a high statistical significance of 99.9%. The seasonality of surface physical fluxes, LAI and NPP are highly correlated with each other. The meridional three-peak pattern of seasonal change emerges in northern mid-latitudes, which indicates the interaction of topographical gradient variation of surface fluxes and vegetation phenology on these three latitudinal belts

  8. Resolution on the program energy-climate; Resolution sur le paquet energie-climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This document presents the resolutions proposed in the resolution proposition n. 1261 and concerning the european Commission program on the energy policies and the climate change. Twelve resolution are presented on the energy sources development, the energy efficiency, the energy economy and the carbon taxes. (A.L.B.)

  9. Arctic melt ponds and energy balance in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudakov, Ivan

    2017-02-01

    Elements of Earth's cryosphere, such as the summer Arctic sea ice pack, are melting at precipitous rates that have far outpaced the projections of large scale climate models. Understanding key processes, such as the evolution of melt ponds that form atop Arctic sea ice and control its optical properties, is crucial to improving climate projections. These types of critical phenomena in the cryosphere are of increasing interest as the climate system warms, and are crucial for predicting its stability. In this paper, we consider how geometrical properties of melt ponds can influence ice-albedo feedback and how it can influence the equilibria in the energy balance of the planet.

  10. The future of energy and climate

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2009-01-01

    The talk will review some of the basic facts about the history and present status of the use of energy and its climatic consequences. It is clear that the world will have to change its way of energy production, the sooner the better. Because of the difficulty of storing electric energy, by far the best energy source for the future is thermal solar from the deserts, with overnight thermal storage. I will give some description of the present status of the technologies involved and end up with a pilot project for Europe and North Africa.

  11. Energy upgrading measures improve also indoor climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foldbjerg, Peter; Knudsen, Henrik Nellemose

    2014-01-01

    A new survey shows that the economy is what motivates Danish owners of single-family houses the most to start energy upgrading, and that improved indoor climate is also an important factor. After the upgrading, homeowners experience both improved economy and indoor climate. In a strategy...... to increase the number of homeowners who venture into a major energy upgrading of their house, the demonstrated positive side effects, more than energy savings, should be included in the communication to motivate homeowners. The barriers should be reduced by “taking the homeowners by the hand” and helping...... them to choose relevant energy-saving solutions as well as clarifying the financial consequences and opportunities....

  12. Including climate change in energy investment decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ybema, J.R.; Boonekamp, P.G.M.; Smit, J.T.J.

    1995-08-01

    To properly take climate change into account in the analysis of energy investment decisions, it is required to apply decision analysis methods that are capable of considering the specific characteristics of climate change (large uncertainties, long term horizon). Such decision analysis methods do exist. They can explicitly include evolving uncertainties, multi-stage decisions, cumulative effects and risk averse attitudes. Various methods are considered in this report and two of these methods have been selected: hedging calculations and sensitivity analysis. These methods are applied to illustrative examples, and its limitations are discussed. The examples are (1a) space heating and hot water for new houses from a private investor perspective and (1b) as example (1a) but from a government perspective, (2) electricity production with an integrated coal gasification combined cycle (ICGCC) with or without CO 2 removal, and (3) national energy strategy to hedge for climate change. 9 figs., 21 tabs., 42 refs., 1 appendix

  13. A modelling study of the seasonal snowpack energy balance at three sites along the Andes Cordillera. Regional climate and local effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhee, James; Mengual, Sebastian; MacDonell, Shelley

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal snowpack melt constitutes the main water source for large portions of extratropical South America, including central Chile and Western Argentina. The properties and distribution of snow in the Andes are threatened by rapid climate change, characterised by warming and drying. This study provides a first attempt at detailed description of the energy balance of the seasonal snowpack and its variability along a latitudinal gradient, which is also correlated with an elevation and precipitation gradient, in the Andes Cordillera. The Snowpack model was validated at semi-arid, Mediterranean and temperate humid sites, where meteorological and snowpack properties have been observed since year 2013. Site elevations decrease from north to south, whereas precipitation climatology increases with latitude. Results show that turbulent energy exchange becomes relatively more important in periods of low snow accumulation, with sensible heat fluxes having a greater effect in cooling the snowpack at the high-altitude, low latitude site. Likewise, daily melt-freeze cycles are important in maintaining positive cold contents throughout the accumulation season at this site, and contribute to extending the duration of snow cover despite low accumulation and high radiation loads. In contrast, the southernmost, lowest elevation site shows smaller daily temperature amplitude and a much more preponderant radiation component to the energy balance. This modelling exercise highlights the nonlinearities of snow dynamics at different geographical settings in a sparsely monitored mountain area of the world, as well as the need for further understanding in order to evaluate the sensitivity of snow-dominated watersheds to global warming and climate change.

  14. Building energy efficiency in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Tsang, C.L.; Yang Liu

    2008-01-01

    Energy simulation was conducted for office buildings in the five major climate zones - severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, mild, and hot summer and warm winter - in China using DOE-2.1E. The primary aim was to investigate the thermal and energy performance of office buildings with centralised heating, ventilation and air conditioning plants in the major climatic zones in China. The computed results were analysed in three aspects - heating load, cooling load and the corresponding building energy consumption. The building peak monthly heating load varied from 142 MW h (1033 MW h cooling) in Hong Kong to 447 MW h (832 MW h cooling) in Harbin. It was also found that passive solar designs could have large energy savings potential in the severe cold and cold climates. In Harbin, the window solar component helped lower the annual building heating load by 650 MW h. Internal loads (lighting and office equipment) and part load operations of fans and pumps also played a significant role in the overall building energy efficiency. This paper presents the work, its findings and energy efficiency implications

  15. Climate change impacts on wind energy resources in northern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Kjellstroem, E.

    2005-01-01

    Energy is a fundamental human need. Heat, light and transport for individuals combined with the needs of industry have created a demand for energy which for the last 100-200 years has been met largely through consumption of fossil fuels leading to altered atmospheric composition and modification of the global climate. These effects will be realised on local scales affecting not just temperature and precipitation but also wind, radiation and other parameters. Annual mean wind speeds and wind energy density over northern Europe were significantly higher at the end of twentieth century than during the middle portion of that century, with the majority of the change being focused on the winter season. To address questions regarding possible future wind climates we employ dynamical and empirical downscaling techniques that seek to take coarse resolution output from General Circulation Models (GCM), run to provide scenarios of future climate, and develop higher resolution regional wind climates. Analyses of the wind climate during the historical record indicate that both the dynamical approach and the empirical approach are capable of generating accurate, robust and quantitative assessments of the wind climate and energy density in northern Europe, and hence that they may be of great utility to those seeking financing for, or risk management of, wind farms in the face of climate uncertainty. The synthesis of application of these downscaling tools to climate projections for northern Europe is that there is no evidence of major changes in the wind energy resource. However, more research is required to quantify the uncertainties in developing these projections and to reduce those uncertainties. Further work should also be conducted to assess the validity of these downscaling approaches in other geographical locations. (BA)

  16. Model confirmation in climate economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  17. Potential energy consumption reduction of automotive climate control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, Filip; Uddheim, Åsa; Dalenbäck, Jan-Olof

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Twenty-on energy saving measures for vehicle interior climate were evaluated. • Few single energy saving measures could reduce the energy use significantly. • The operation of the system in intermediate conditions determines the energy use. • Required heating/cooling of passenger compartment had small effect on energy use. - Abstract: In recent years fuel consumption of passenger vehicles has received increased attention by customers, the automotive industry, regulatory agencies and academia. One area which affect the fuel consumption is climate control systems. Twenty-one energy saving measures were evaluated regarding the total energy use for vehicle interior climate using simulation. Evaluated properties were heat flow into the passenger compartment, electrical and mechanical work. The simulation model included sub models of the passenger compartment, air-handling unit, Air Conditioning (AC) system, engine and engine cooling system. A real-world representative test cycle, which included tests in cold, intermediate and warm conditions, was used for evaluation. In general, few single energy saving measures could reduce the energy use significantly. The measures with most potential were increased blower efficiency with a reduction of 46% of the electrical work and increased AC-system disengage temperature with a reduction of 27% of the mechanical work. These results show that the operation of the climate control system had a large effect on the energy use, especially compared to the required heating and cooling of the passenger compartment. As a result energy saving measures need to address how heating and cooling is generated before reducing the heat flow into the passenger compartment.

  18. The Paris-Nairobi climate initiative. Access to clean energy for all in Africa and countries vulnerable to climate change. Access to energy, sustainable development and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The first part of this report highlights the importance of a universal access to energy, the role of public policies and renewable energies, the need to implement sustainable economic models for energy services, and indicates the major objectives and essential actions for these purposes. The second part outlines the weakness of electricity production in Africa, the degradation of the energy mix balance, the vulnerability to climate change, and the fact that Africa, like other countries vulnerable to climate change, possess huge and unexploited renewable energy resources (biomass, hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind). The third part proposes an approach to energy services by developing sustainable cooking, supplying energy to support rural development and to poles of economic growth, by developing sustainable cities (notably in transports and buildings), and by developing national and regional electricity grids. The last part addresses the issue of energy financing in developing countries

  19. Solar energy, architecture and climate in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo B, J.

    1983-01-01

    In Colombia, the climatological conditions are such that with a possible serious appropriate technology to use the solar energy in the cities when the electricity rationing increases, for the illumination, the refrigeration, the electricity production, the heating, etc. The use of the solar energy is also been worth to look for a better adaptation between climate and architecture. In this sense, the article exposes some of the existent possibilities of application of the solar energy for the comfort of the habitat, possibilities of high efficiency and low cost that can be easily applicable in Colombia

  20. Climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector : workshop report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This workshop on climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector was conducted in order to develop a climate change work plan for the Council of Energy Ministers (CEM) as well as to develop awareness and dialogue within Canada's energy sector. Industry members and government officials identified findings from recent assessment reports on climate change adaptation and discussed ways in which the international oil and gas industry is currently adapting its operations and technologies to ensure continuing safety and risk mitigation. The use of hydrological models to forecast the potential impacts of climate change was discussed, and the drivers of climate change adaptation were reviewed. A total of 26 topics were identified, 13 of which were prioritized for group discussions based on their impact and urgency. The following 5 topics were finally identified as top priority topics: (1) climate change adaptation science, (2) co-ordinated local, provincial, national, and international policies, (3) information sharing and knowledge transfer, (4) aging infrastructure and increasing demand, and (5) market mechanisms for adaptation. Four presentations were given during the initial portion of the workshop. 4 tabs., 1 fig

  1. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahn, Olivier; Edwards, Neil R.; Knutti, Reto; Stocker, Thomas F.

    2011-01-01

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. - Research Highlights: → Preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction. → This could be achieved through strong changes in the energy mix. → Similar results would apply to any climate system tipping points.

  2. The forest products industry at an energy/climate crossroads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Marilyn A.; Baek, Youngsun

    2010-01-01

    Transformational energy and climate policies are being debated worldwide that could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. Because woody biomass can produce alternative transportation fuels, low-carbon electricity, and numerous other 'green' products in addition to traditional paper and lumber commodities, the future use of forest resources is highly uncertain. Using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), this paper assesses the future of the forest products industry under three possible U.S. policy scenarios: (1) a national renewable electricity standard, (2) a national policy of carbon constraints, and (3) incentives for industrial energy efficiency. In addition, we discuss how these policy scenarios might interface with the recently strengthened U.S. renewable fuels standards. The principal focus is on how forest products including residues might be utilized under different policy scenarios, and what such market shifts might mean for electricity and biomass prices, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results underscore the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and climate policies in order to moderate electricity and biomass price escalation while strengthening energy security and reducing CO 2 emissions. - Research highlights: →Transformational energy and climate policies such as a national renewable electricity standard, a national policy of carbon constraints, and incentives for industrial energy efficiency could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. →Each policy scenario reduces CO 2 emissions over time, compared to the business-as-usual forecast, with the carbon constrained policy producing the largest decline. As a package, the three policies together could cut CO 2 emissions from the electricity sector by an estimated 41% by 2030. →This study underscores the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and

  3. Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M.; Kirshen, P.; Horwitz, J.

    2005-01-01

    Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand

  4. Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD (United States); Kirshen, P. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Anderson Hall, Medford, MA (United States); Horwitz, J. [Climatological Database Consultant, Binary Systems Software, Newton, MA (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.

  5. Energy policy and climate change in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaygusuz, Kamil

    2003-01-01

    The problem of massive emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the burning of fossil fuels and their climatic impact have become major scientific and political issues. Future stabilization of the atmospheric CO 2 content requires a drastic decrease of CO 2 emissions worldwide. In this study, energy utilization and its major environmental impacts are discussed from the standpoint of sustainable development, including anticipated patterns of future energy use and subsequent environmental issues in Turkey. Several aspects relating to energy utilization, renewable energy, energy efficiency, environment and sustainable development are examined from both current and future perspectives. Turkey is an energy importing country; with more than half of the energy requirement being supplied by imports. Domestic oil and lignite reserves are limited, and the lignites are characterised by high ash, sulfur and moisture contents. Because of increasing energy consumption, air pollution is becoming a great environmental concern for the future in the country. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development and environmental pollution prevention in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of the renewable energy sources

  6. Energy policy in China: implications for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ZhongXiang Zhang [University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

    1998-12-31

    This is the first systematic and comprehensive analysis of the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy. It evaluates the economics of climate change and provides national, cost-effective policies for climate change. The book consists of three main parts, firstly, an analysis of the Chinese energy system to increase awareness of the implications of this sector for China`s future carbon dioxide emissions, secondly, a macroeconomic analysis of carbon dioxide emissions limits using a newly-developed computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy; and finally, a cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options by means of a technology-oriented dynamic optimization model.

  7. Energy and climate protection management, the key to higher energy efficiency in communities; Energie- und Klimaschutzmanagement. Der Schluessel zu mehr Energieeffizienz in Kommunen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-15

    The brochure explains the dena energy and climate protection management concepts and presents tools for long-term reduction of energy consumption in communities. It presents valuable information for better organization of internal processes in community administrations and for the management of energy efficiency measures. The dena energy and climate protection management concept is developed in cooperation with model communities of different sizes since 2010. All interested communities can use this brochure as a guide for initiating effective climate protection measures.

  8. Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

    2014-12-01

    Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  9. Modeling Past Abrupt Climate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchionne, Arianna

    of the orbital variations on Earth's climate; however, the knowledge and tools needed to complete a unied theory for ice ages have not been developed yet. Here, we focus on the climatic variations that have occurred over the last few million years. Paleoclimatic records show that the glacial cycles are linked...... to those present in the astronomical forcing. We shall do this in terms of a general framework of conceptual dynamical models, which may or may not exhibit internal self-sustained oscillations. We introduce and discuss two distinct mechanisms for a periodic response at a dierent period to a periodic...

  10. Climate change, energy, sustainability and pavements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopalakrishnan, Kasthurirangan; Steyn, Wynand JvdM; Harvey, John

    2014-01-01

    Provides an integrated perspective on understanding the impacts of climate change, energy and sustainable development on transportation infrastructure systems. Presents recent technological innovations and emerging concepts in the field of green and sustainable transportation infrastructure systems with a special focus on highway and airport pavements. Written by leading experts in the field. Climate change, energy production and consumption, and the need to improve the sustainability of all aspects of human activity are key inter-related issues for which solutions must be found and implemented quickly and efficiently. To be successfully implemented, solutions must recognize the rapidly changing socio-techno-political environment and multi-dimensional constraints presented by today's interconnected world. As part of this global effort, considerations of climate change impacts, energy demands, and incorporation of sustainability concepts have increasing importance in the design, construction, and maintenance of highway and airport pavement systems. To prepare the human capacity to develop and implement these solutions, many educators, policy-makers and practitioners have stressed the paramount importance of formally incorporating sustainability concepts in the civil engineering curriculum to educate and train future civil engineers well-equipped to address our current and future sustainability challenges. This book will prove a valuable resource in the hands of researchers, educators and future engineering leaders, most of whom will be working in multidisciplinary environments to address a host of next-generation sustainable transportation infrastructure challenges.

  11. Climate change, energy, sustainability and pavements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gopalakrishnan, Kasthurirangan [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States). Dept. of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering; Steyn, Wynand JvdM [Pretoria Univ. (South Africa). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Harvey, John (ed.) [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

    2014-07-01

    Provides an integrated perspective on understanding the impacts of climate change, energy and sustainable development on transportation infrastructure systems. Presents recent technological innovations and emerging concepts in the field of green and sustainable transportation infrastructure systems with a special focus on highway and airport pavements. Written by leading experts in the field. Climate change, energy production and consumption, and the need to improve the sustainability of all aspects of human activity are key inter-related issues for which solutions must be found and implemented quickly and efficiently. To be successfully implemented, solutions must recognize the rapidly changing socio-techno-political environment and multi-dimensional constraints presented by today's interconnected world. As part of this global effort, considerations of climate change impacts, energy demands, and incorporation of sustainability concepts have increasing importance in the design, construction, and maintenance of highway and airport pavement systems. To prepare the human capacity to develop and implement these solutions, many educators, policy-makers and practitioners have stressed the paramount importance of formally incorporating sustainability concepts in the civil engineering curriculum to educate and train future civil engineers well-equipped to address our current and future sustainability challenges. This book will prove a valuable resource in the hands of researchers, educators and future engineering leaders, most of whom will be working in multidisciplinary environments to address a host of next-generation sustainable transportation infrastructure challenges.

  12. Intervention model in organizational climate

    OpenAIRE

    Cárdenas Niño, Lucila; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05; Arciniegas Rodríguez, Yuly Cristina; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05; Barrera Cárdenas, Mónica; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess whether the intervention model in organizational climate PMCO, was effective in the Hospital of Yopal, Colombia. The following five phases, proposed by the model, were implemented: 1) problem analysis, 2) awareness, 3) strategies design and planning, at the individual, intergroup, and organizational levels, 4) implementation of the strategy, and 5) process evaluation. A design composed of two groups, experimental and control, was chosen, analyzing whether t...

  13. Energy and climate: the essential world cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesourne, J.

    2008-01-01

    Considering the double challenge of energy supply for economic development and of greenhouse gas emission management to struggle against climate change, the author identifies what can be done at different levels: between governments and households (in terms of energy costs, public transport development, information and education), between governments and firms (in terms of standards, network leakage reductions, intellectual property on new technologies), and between governments. He identifies the related objectives for the European Union, the United States of America, Japan, Russia, China, India, Brazil, the Middle-East, and Sub-Saharan Africa

  14. The new energy challenges: climate, economy, geopolitics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevalier, J.M.; Aoun, M.C.; Campaner, N.; Cruciani, M.; Geoffron, P.; Gubaidullin, A.; Hristova, I.; Keppler, J.H.; Lautier, D.; Mandil, C.; Meritet, S.; Ouedraogo, N.; Rouhier, S.; Salaun, F.; Simon, Y.; Zaleski, C.P.

    2009-01-01

    Oil, coal and natural gas, three polluting and non-renewable energies, supply more than 80% of the World daily energy consumption. Today, the scientific community has acknowledged the responsibility of this consumption on the global warming which may have dramatic impacts on physical, economical, social and political equilibria of our planet. Climate has become a public resource which belongs to everybody, the management of which should be done collectively and prospectively. However, the nation-states defend their wealth, their immediate interest without globalization and long-term outlook. This book treats of the new energy challenges under their regional and global aspects. This allows to better understand the dynamics of a multipolar world. Each region of the world has its own specificity, its capital of natural resources, its history, its own level of economic development, and its vulnerability with respect to climate change. For hundreds of million people, priority is given to the economic growth and wealth generation, but such a priority is synonymous of rise of the energy consumption and increase of greenhouse gas emissions. This opposition between 'more energy' and 'less emissions' is source of new economical and geopolitical tensions. Only a reinforcement of the world governance can solve these contradictions by the affirmation of a solidarity between populations, and for the first time, between generations. (J.S.)

  15. Energy, world should not chose nuclear energy to fight against climatic change. Nuclear and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besson, S.

    2007-06-01

    This document proposes an abstract of the conclusions of an expert group, the Oxford Research Group, which criticizes the today boost in favor of the electricity from nuclear energy. They explain that the nuclear energy should not be a solution for the fight against the climatic change. (A.L.B.)

  16. Distributed Energy Planning for Climate Resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stout, Sherry R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hotchkiss, Elizabeth L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Day, Megan H [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lee, Nathan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Holm, Alison [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-05-01

    At various levels of government across the United States and globally climate resilient solutions are being adopted and implemented. Solutions vary based on predicted hazards, community context, priorities, complexity, and available resources. Lessons are being learned through the implementation process, which can be replicated regardless of level or type of government entity carrying out the resiliency planning. Through a number of analyses and technical support across the world, NREL has learned key lessons related to resilience planning associated with power generation and water distribution. Distributed energy generation is a large factor in building resilience with clean energy technologies and solutions. The technical and policy solutions associated with distributed energy implementation for resilience fall into a few major categories, including spatial diversification, microgrids, water-energy nexus, policy, and redundancy.

  17. National Energy Policy and Climate Change Prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruggink, J.J.C.; Mallant, R.K.A.M.; Van der Wart, R.; Muradin-Szweykowska, M.

    1992-06-01

    Climate change prevention has become one of the major concerns of environmental policy in the Netherlands. The Dutch government has set definite targets for CO 2 emissions in the coming decade. These targets and the measures necessary to reach them are described in the paper. In addition, the technical feasibility of realizing the Toronto objective of a 20% reduction in CO 2 emissions by the year 2005 in the Netherlands is discussed. It appears that energy conservation options are most crucial for the short-term, but that eventually new supply technologies are needed to obtain drastic reductions in the long term. The increased need for research and development efforts has led to two innovative research programmes on sustainable energy development in the Netherlands. The ENGINE (ENergy Generation In the Natural Environment) programme is implemented by the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) and addresses the specific problems associated with the three major components of supply: cleanliness in the case of fossil fuels, safety in the case of nuclear energy, and costs in the case of renewable sources. The complementary SYRENE (SYstem integration of Renewable ENergy and End use) is implemented by the Netherlands Agency for Energy and Environment (NOVEM) and addresses the system aspects of sustainable energy development. The objectives and approaches of these two programmes are briefly presented. 1 fig., 1 tab., 4 refs

  18. Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Declan; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Deryng, Delphine; Dorling, Steve; Krueger, Tobias; Landman, Willem; Lankford, Bruce; Lebek, Karen; Osborn, Tim; Ringler, Claudia; Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Dalin, Carole

    2015-09-01

    In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven, for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and gross domestic product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose: the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water.

  19. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  20. Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

    2007-01-01

    This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design...... of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme...

  1. Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

    1998-01-01

    Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

  2. Climate models with delay differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Andrew; Krauskopf, Bernd; Postlethwaite, Claire M.

    2017-11-01

    A fundamental challenge in mathematical modelling is to find a model that embodies the essential underlying physics of a system, while at the same time being simple enough to allow for mathematical analysis. Delay differential equations (DDEs) can often assist in this goal because, in some cases, only the delayed effects of complex processes need to be described and not the processes themselves. This is true for some climate systems, whose dynamics are driven in part by delayed feedback loops associated with transport times of mass or energy from one location of the globe to another. The infinite-dimensional nature of DDEs allows them to be sufficiently complex to reproduce realistic dynamics accurately with a small number of variables and parameters. In this paper, we review how DDEs have been used to model climate systems at a conceptual level. Most studies of DDE climate models have focused on gaining insights into either the global energy balance or the fundamental workings of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. For example, studies of DDEs have led to proposed mechanisms for the interannual oscillations in sea-surface temperature that is characteristic of ENSO, the irregular behaviour that makes ENSO difficult to forecast and the tendency of El Niño events to occur near Christmas. We also discuss the tools used to analyse such DDE models. In particular, the recent development of continuation software for DDEs makes it possible to explore large regions of parameter space in an efficient manner in order to provide a "global picture" of the possible dynamics. We also point out some directions for future research, including the incorporation of non-constant delays, which we believe could improve the descriptive power of DDE climate models.

  3. Climate models with delay differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Andrew; Krauskopf, Bernd; Postlethwaite, Claire M

    2017-11-01

    A fundamental challenge in mathematical modelling is to find a model that embodies the essential underlying physics of a system, while at the same time being simple enough to allow for mathematical analysis. Delay differential equations (DDEs) can often assist in this goal because, in some cases, only the delayed effects of complex processes need to be described and not the processes themselves. This is true for some climate systems, whose dynamics are driven in part by delayed feedback loops associated with transport times of mass or energy from one location of the globe to another. The infinite-dimensional nature of DDEs allows them to be sufficiently complex to reproduce realistic dynamics accurately with a small number of variables and parameters. In this paper, we review how DDEs have been used to model climate systems at a conceptual level. Most studies of DDE climate models have focused on gaining insights into either the global energy balance or the fundamental workings of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. For example, studies of DDEs have led to proposed mechanisms for the interannual oscillations in sea-surface temperature that is characteristic of ENSO, the irregular behaviour that makes ENSO difficult to forecast and the tendency of El Niño events to occur near Christmas. We also discuss the tools used to analyse such DDE models. In particular, the recent development of continuation software for DDEs makes it possible to explore large regions of parameter space in an efficient manner in order to provide a "global picture" of the possible dynamics. We also point out some directions for future research, including the incorporation of non-constant delays, which we believe could improve the descriptive power of DDE climate models.

  4. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Demosthenous

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

  5. Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

    2004-05-01

    Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net

  6. The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creutzig, Felix; Agoston, Peter; Goldschmidt, Jan Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar; Nemet, Gregory; Pietzcker, Robert C.

    2017-09-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report emphasizes the importance of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage for achieving climate goals, but it does not identify solar energy as a strategically important technology option. That is surprising given the strong growth, large resource, and low environmental footprint of photovoltaics (PV). Here we explore how models have consistently underestimated PV deployment and identify the reasons for underlying bias in models. Our analysis reveals that rapid technological learning and technology-specific policy support were crucial to PV deployment in the past, but that future success will depend on adequate financing instruments and the management of system integration. We propose that with coordinated advances in multiple components of the energy system, PV could supply 30-50% of electricity in competitive markets.

  7. Energy- and humidity-budget of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model GESIMA by nesting into the regional climate model REMO; Energie- und Feuchtehaushalt im nichthydrostatischen Mesoskalamodell GESIMA bei Nestung in das Regionalklimamodell REMO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horneffer, K. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserphysik]|[Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Fachbereich 15 - Geowissenschaften

    1997-12-31

    The `Geesthacht Simulationsmodel of the Atmosphere` (GESIMA) was nested into the `Regional Climate Model` (REMO). Exemplary studies prove that the presented nesting scheme is suitable to resolve subscale phenomena in the regional climate model. Some results of simulations above the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea were presented. The mesoscale model GESIMA could now be used to analyze real synoptic weather situations. (orig.) [Deutsch] Das Geesthachter Simulationsmodell der Atmosphaere (GESIMA) wird in das Regionalklimamodell (REMO) genestet. Beispielhafte Untersuchungen zeigen, dass mit der genesteten Modellversion subskalige Effekte, die durch das grobe Raster des Regionalklimamodells fallen, aufgeloest werden. Dies wird anhand von Simulationen ueberprueft. Hauptuntersuchungsgegenstand ist die Insel Gotland in der Ostsee. Duch die Nestung kann das Mesoskalamodell fuer tatsaechliche synoptische Situationen eingesetzt werden. (orig.)

  8. Point Climat no. 26 'Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans at the heart of the debate on the energy transition'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bordier, Cecile; Leseur, Alexia

    2013-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Briefs' presents, in a few pages, hot topics in climate change policy. This issue addresses the following points: On the eve of the introduction of the environmental assessment procedure for planning documents, almost all Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans have now been published. This Climate Brief assesses regional climate strategies, which rely on significant commitment from those involved, including citizens by changing their behaviour, companies by improving their energy efficiency and the banking sector through financial support. Identification of these challenges and areas for action will feed into the national debate on energy transition which began last autumn

  9. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

  10. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

  11. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  12. Recent changes in energy and freshwater budgets for the Godthåbsfjord catchment simulated in a 5 km regional climate model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langen, P. L.; Mottram, R.; Christensen, J. H.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater input to the Godthåbsfjord (Southwest Greenland) is analyzed with special attention on the melt and runoff from the ice sheet. We use the high resolution (5.5 km) HIRHAM5 regional climate model covering all of Greenland, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis at the lateral boundaries ov...

  13. The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

    2017-06-01

    Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

  14. Exploring elementary students’ understanding of energy and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin BOYLAN

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available As environmental changes become a significant societal issue, elementary science curriculaneed to develop students’ understanding about the key concepts of energy and climate change.For teachers, developing quality learning experiences involves establishing what theirstudents’ prior understanding about energy and climate change are. A survey was developed toexplore what elementary students know and understand about renewable and non-renewablesources of energy and their relationship to climate change issues. The findings from thissurvey are reported in this paper.

  15. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  16. Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petersen, Mark Roger [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division

    2016-09-12

    The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolution below ice shelves and near grounding lines.

  17. Fuel choice, nuclear energy, climate and carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shpyth, A.

    2012-01-01

    For the second time since the start of commercial nuclear electricity generation, an accident has the world wondering if uranium will be among the future fuel choices in electricity production. Unfortunate when one considers the low-carbon footprint of this energy option. An accident involving a nuclear power plant, or more appropriately the perceived risks associated with an accident at a nuclear power plant, is but one of the issues that makes the impact assessment process related to nuclear energy projects challenging. Other aspects, including the time scales associated with their siting, licensing, operation and decommissioning, also contribute to the challenge. Strategic environmental assessments for future fuel choices in electricity generation, particularly ones that consider the use of life cycle assessment information, would allow for the effective evaluation of the issues identified above. But more importantly from an impact assessment perspective, provide for a comparative assertion for public disclosure on the environmental impacts of fuel choice. This would provide the public and government decision makers with a more complete view of the role nuclear energy may be able to play in mitigating the climate and carbon impacts of increased electricity production, and place issues of cost, complexity and scale in a more understandable context.

  18. Political motives in climate and energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruvoll, Annegrete; Dalen, Hanne Marit; Larsen, Bodil M.

    2012-07-01

    Standard economic theory provides clear guidance on the design of cost-efficient policy in the presence of imperfect markets and externalities. However, observed policies reveal extensive discrepancies between principles and practise. Based on interviews with core politicians from the Norwegian parliament, we investigate causes for the lack of cost efficiency in climate and energy policy. We find that politicians agree with the notion of cost efficiency in principle, but rather than ascribing efficient instruments directed at specific policy goals, they include concerns for industrial and regional development, income distribution and employment in the environmental policy design. Lacking insight in the functioning of economic instruments and perceptions of a non-binding budget constraint also violate the requirements for efficient policy decisions. The findings point to the role of economists and social scientists to communicate the functioning of complex instruments. Improved compensation procedures could help reduce the politicians' incentives to undermine efficiency in order to avoid unwanted distributional effects.(Author)

  19. Energy for climate in Europe. An assessment of energy policies with climate-relevance. The LinkS Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Audun; Knudsen, Joergen K.; Jacobsen, Gerd B.

    2011-07-01

    The LinkS project aims at providing a better linkage between perspectives and projections for global climate policy development and regional energy systems, by linking relevant modelling tools. The present report provides a specific focus on energy policy measures within the EY with climate relevance. The EU has in recent years aimed at reinforcing the linkage between the climate and energy policies, both at strategic and operational levels. The EU has pledged itself to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 8 percent by 2008-12 as compared to the 1990 level, and by 20 percent by 2020 as compared to the as compared to the 2005 level. The EU-27 reduced it GHG emissions with 11,3 percent in 1990-2008. The 2020-target, however, will require stronger efforts and energy is a key sector: The EU has decided that 20 percent of the energy must be renewable, and that the energy usage in 2020 is to be 20 per sent more efficient than in 2005. A number of policy strategies, measures and legislation are formulated to fulfil these targets. In order to highlight the potential of these measures, this report specifically addresses the drivers and limitations given the existing decision-making structures in the EU. The methodology employed is mainly qualitative, based on document analysis and a review of secondary literature. Climate-change mitigation is in principle based on supra-national decision-making, but unanimity among all Eu Member States is still required in critical issues related to the energy sector. In addition, the national follow-up of the targets constitutes a particular challenge. This is here illustrated by the cases of Denmark and Norway. Energy policy is also substantially characterised by several conflicting interests between the Member States, resulting in diverging policy priorities. It is, therefore, an open question whether the EU will succeed in fulfilling its 20/20/20 percent targets by 2020, and will be the actual role of energy within the climate

  20. (Un)certainty in climate change impacts on global energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ruijven, B. J.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have an influence on the energy sector, especially on energy demand. For many locations, this change in energy demand is a balance between increase of demand for space cooling and a decrease of space heating demand. We perform a large-scale uncertainty analysis to characterize climate change risk on energy consumption as driven by climate and socioeconomic uncertainty. We combine a dynamic econometric model1 with multiple realizations of temperature projections from all 21 CMIP5 models (from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections2) under moderate (RCP4.5) and vigorous (RCP8.5) warming. Global spatial population projections for five SSPs are combined with GDP projections to construct scenarios for future energy demand driven by socioeconomic change. Between the climate models, we find a median global increase in climate-related energy demand of around 24% by 2050 under RCP8.5 with an interquartile range of 18-38%. Most climate models agree on increases in energy demand of more than 25% or 50% in tropical regions, the Southern USA and Southern China (see Figure). With respect to socioeconomic scenarios, we find wide variations between the SSPs for the number of people in low-income countries who are exposed to increases in energy demand. Figure attached: Number of models that agree on total climate-related energy consumption to increase or decrease by more than 0, 10, 25 or 50% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and SSP5 as result of the CMIP5 ensemble of temperature projections. References1. De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate. (FEEM, 2016). 2. Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16, 3309-3314 (2012).

  1. Climate change and energy policy in Chile: Up in smoke?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mundaca T, Luis

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides an ex-post assessment of the climate and energy policy developments in Chile emerging from a neoliberal economic model, during the period 1971–2007. First, correlation and regression analyses were performed to analyse historical CO 2 emissions as a product of demographic, economic and energy-wide drivers. Then I estimate indicators related to CO 2 emissions, energy use and economic activity. In the light of empirical results, I identify policy instruments and structural issues. Finally, I present a comparative analysis of Chile and other Latin American countries. Statistical tests show that variability of CO 2 emissions is explained mostly by GDP per capita (‘affluence’) than any other tested variable. Indicators show that the diversification and decarbonisation of the energy mix has been a major policy challenge. With two notable exceptions (hydro and natural gas), the CO 2 intensity of the energy supply mix suggests no effective policies, while energy security crises triggered negative carbon effects and increased prices. No clear policies to promote energy efficiency can be identified until 2005. Explicit policy instruments to promote renewable energy are only recognised after 2004. The results strongly suggest that Chile lacked of policies to effectively decarbonise its energy–economy system. - Highlight: ► The first paper that quantitatively assesses key drivers of CO 2 emissions in Chile. ► It examines energy and climate policy development during the period 1971–2007. ► GDP per capita (‘affluence’) is the main determinant of CO 2 emissions. ► Diversification and decarbonisation of energy mix has been a major policy challenge. ► Policy approach under analysed period not suited for a low-carbon economy.

  2. Plugging the Energy Efficiency Gap with Climate Finance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The role of International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and the Green Climate Fund to realise the potential of energy efficiency in developing countries. This report examines the current role of climate finance in funding EE projects and the potential to channel funds to relevant EE projects in developing countries under the new Green Climate Fund (GCF). The objectives of the report are to examine: 1) the share of climate finance currently being channelled to energy efficiency measures, and 2) how the design of climate finance can better facilitate energy efficiency projects. Improving energy efficiency (EE) can deliver a range of benefits such as improved air quality, enhanced economic competitiveness and, at the national scale, a higher degree of energy security. Significant improvements in energy efficiency in developing countries could provide greater opportunity for economic growth while also providing broader access to energy and related services even from limited energy resources. However, several barriers limit the scaling-up of funding of EE projects in developing countries (some are common also to developed countries). The report focuses primarily on public climate finance flows from 'north' to 'south', probing the current use of funds from multi-lateral development banks (MDBs), bi-lateral financial institutions (BFIs) and carbon markets for energy efficiency projects and the design of the future climate financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund to encourage energy efficiency improvements in developing countries.

  3. Solutions-based climate change education for K-Gray: Renewable energy and energy efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, C.

    2017-12-01

    Through the National Science Foundation-funded MADE CLEAR (www.madeclear.org) climate change education project's Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community, funds were received to collaboratively train teachers, informal educators, students, and university docents in climate change basics and solutions, specifically renewable energy and energy efficiency. In all, 10 docents, 50 classroom teachers, over 600 K-16 students, and several hundred science-interested citizens participated in programs and workshops lasting between one and seven hours. Using commercially available kits and other DIY projects, program participants used science content and engineering to develop models of wind turbines, wind mills, solar cells, solar cookers, solar stills, and wind-powered cars. Using thermal imaging cameras, Kill-a-Watt meters, "Carbon Food Print" kit, "Energy Matters" kit, and other tools, program participants learned about energy efficiency as not only a global climate change mitigation strategy, but also a way to save money. ICCE Community members and external partners, such as local electric cooperative personnel, university researchers, and state-sponsored energy efficiency program personnel, provided content presentations, discussions, and hands-on activities to program participants.

  4. The ESRI Energy Model

    OpenAIRE

    Di Cosmo, Valeri; Hyland, Marie

    2012-01-01

    PUBLISHED In Ireland, the energy sector has undergone significant change in the last forty years. In this period, there has been a significant increase in the demand for energy. This increase has been driven by economic and demographic factors. Although the current deep recession has quelled the upward trend in the demand for energy, a future economic recovery will bring these issues back into focus. This paper documents a model of the Irish energy sector which relates energy demand to re...

  5. Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining different energy sources together, their intermittent feature is smoothed, resulting to lower time variability of the produced power and to lower storage capacity required for balancing. In this study, we consider solar, wind and hydro energy sources in a 100% renewable Europe using a set of 12 regions following two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine wind and solar irradiance data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Vautard et al., 2014), temperature data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) and runoff from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC, 1999) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 30 years. The use of this set of 12 regions across Europe allows integrating knowledge about time and space variability for each different energy sources. We then assess the optimal share of each energy sources, aiming to decrease the time variability of the regional energy balance at different time scales as well as the energy storage required for balancing within each region. We also evaluate how energy transport among regions contributes for smoothing out both the energy balance and the storage requirement. The strengths of this study are i) to handle with run-of-the-river hydro power in addition to wind and solar energy sources and ii) to carry out this analysis

  6. Climate change impacts on chosen activities from the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fonte Hernandez, Aramis; Rivero Vega, Roger

    2006-01-01

    The present work, results of a study carried out about the possible impact of climate change on the energy sector in the province Camaguey are shown. First of all, the main activities in companies, utilities, and farms related to the most significant energy consumption were chosen in order to model corresponding equivalent fuel consumption. Impacts were determined taking into account differences between present and future consumptions for each kind of energy. In developed countries, this kind of work is done using well-known empirical-statistical models, which usually require a lot of data at a nation-wide scale, but to attempt it in an undeveloped country demands the use of specific methodology, which in this case was non-existent and required us to create it. This resulted in a carefully posed question since we had to take into consideration that the spatial scale is only that of a province, and so it was necessary, above all, to study specific characteristics of provincial fuel consumption. We used the Magic-Scengen system and SRES scenarios, and outputs of general circulation models like HadCM2 to obtain values of chosen climatic variables for use in energy consumption regression models, previously developed for each kind of activity in the corresponding companies, firm, and facilities included in the present research. It made possible to estimate energy consumption in each activity at the selected time periods centered at 2020, 2050, and 2080. The study shows that impact could rise the consumption by 2,5% of the present energy level in this territory

  7. Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

    2009-04-01

    An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

  8. Climate crisis: energy solutions for BC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, D.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a collection of essays which, collectively, detail the current situation of energy and climate policy in British Columbia, taking account of the full consequences of addiction to fossil fuels and the automobile. The report examines the forces at work responsible for the current situation, namely population growth, urban sprawl, low density communities in the Lower Fraser Valley, southern Vancouver Island and other parts of the province. The growing pressure on the development of agricultural land, congestion on highways and in cities, the increase in air pollution, land alienation, longer commutes to and from work, increased demand for electricity and natural gas, construction of new power plants, pipelines and gas processing facilities are just further examples of the same trend, culminating in dramatic growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The report proposes a range of conservation and renewable options in the areas of urban land use and transportation, commercial and industrial energy reduction and oil and gas production, and provides some ideas of how these recommendations could be realized by businesses, institutions and individuals. It insists on stressing that while the challenges are formidable, they could be achieved through a combination of regulation, public investment, market mechanisms and cultural change. 163 end-notes, tabs

  9. Climate crisis: energy solutions for BC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foley, D. [ed.

    2000-07-01

    This report is a collection of essays which, collectively, detail the current situation of energy and climate policy in British Columbia, taking account of the full consequences of addiction to fossil fuels and the automobile. The report examines the forces at work responsible for the current situation, namely population growth, urban sprawl, low density communities in the Lower Fraser Valley, southern Vancouver Island and other parts of the province. The growing pressure on the development of agricultural land, congestion on highways and in cities, the increase in air pollution, land alienation, longer commutes to and from work, increased demand for electricity and natural gas, construction of new power plants, pipelines and gas processing facilities are just further examples of the same trend, culminating in dramatic growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The report proposes a range of conservation and renewable options in the areas of urban land use and transportation, commercial and industrial energy reduction and oil and gas production, and provides some ideas of how these recommendations could be realized by businesses, institutions and individuals. It insists on stressing that while the challenges are formidable, they could be achieved through a combination of regulation, public investment, market mechanisms and cultural change. 163 end-notes, tabs.

  10. Distributed Energy Generation for Climate Resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stout, Sherry; Hotchkiss, Eliza

    2017-05-24

    Distributed generation can play a critical role in supporting climate adaptation goals. This infographic style poster will showcase the role of distributed generation in achieving a wide range of technical and policy goals and social services associated with climate adaptation.

  11. Brazilian energy model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-01

    A summary of the energy situation in Brazil is presented. Energy consumption rates, reserves of primary energy, and the basic needs and strategies for meeting energy self sufficiency are discussed. Conserving energy, increasing petroleum production, and utilizing other domestic energy products and petroleum by-products are discussed. Specific programs are described for the development and use of alcohol fuels, wood and charcoal, coal, schist, solar and geothermal energy, power from the sea, fresh biomass, special batteries, hydrogen, vegetable oil, and electric energy from water power, nuclear, and coal. Details of the energy model for 1985 are given. Attention is also given to the energy demands and the structure of global energy from 1975 to 1985.

  12. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  13. Energy modelling and capacity building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The Planning and Economic Studies Section of the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Energy is focusing on building analytical capacity in MS for energy-environmental-economic assessments and for the elaboration of sustainable energy strategies. It offers a variety of analytical models specifically designed for use in developing countries for (i) evaluating alternative energy strategies; (ii) assessing environmental, economic and financial impacts of energy options; (iii) assessing infrastructure needs; (iv) evaluating regional development possibilities and energy trade; (v) assessing the role of nuclear power in addressing priority issues (climate change, energy security, etc.). These models can be used for analysing energy or electricity systems, and to assess possible implications of different energy, environmental or financial policies that affect the energy sector and energy systems. The models vary in complexity and data requirements, and so can be adapted to the available data, statistics and analytical needs of different countries. These models are constantly updated to reflect changes in the real world and in the concerns that drive energy system choices. They can provide thoughtfully informed choices for policy makers over a broader range of circumstances and interests. For example, they can readily reflect the workings of competitive energy and electricity markets, and cover such topics as external costs. The IAEA further offers training in the use of these models and -just as important- in the interpretation and critical evaluation of results. Training of national teams to develop national competence over the full spectrum of models, is a high priority. The IAEA maintains a broad spectrum of databanks relevant to energy, economic and environmental analysis in MS, and make these data available to analysts in MS for use in their own analytical work. The Reference Technology Data Base (RTDB) and the Reference Data Series (RDS-1) are the major vehicles by which we

  14. State-of-the-Art Climate Predictions for Energy Climate Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Davis, Melanie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube

    2015-04-01

    Climate predictions tailored to the energy sector represent the cutting edge in climate sciences to forecast wind power generation. At seasonal time scales, current energy practices use a deterministic approach based on retrospective climatology, but climate predictions have recently been shown to provide additional value. For this reason, probabilistic climate predictions of near surface winds can allow end users to take calculated, precautionary action with a potential cost savings to their operations. As every variable predicted in a coupled model forecast system, the prediction of wind speed is affected by biases. To overcome this, two different techniques for the post-processing of ensemble forecasts are considered: a simple bias correction and a calibration method. The former is based on the assumption that the reference and predicted distributions are well approximated by a normal distribution. The latter is a calibration technique which inflates the model variance, and the inflation of the ensemble is required in order to obtain a reliable outcome. Both methods use the "one-year out" cross-validated mode, and they provide corrected forecasts with improved statistical properties. The impact of these bias corrections on the quality of the ECMWF S4 predictions of near surface wind speed during winter is explored. To offer a comprehensive picture of the post-processing effect on the forecast quality of the system, it is necessary to use several scoring measures: rank histograms, reliability diagrams and skill maps. These tools are essential to assess different aspects of the forecasts, and to observe changes in their properties when the two methods are applied. This study reveals that the different techniques to correct the predictions produce a statistically consistent ensemble. However, the operations performed on the forecasts decrease their skill which correspond to an increase in the uncertainty. Therefore, even though the bias correction is fundamental

  15. Energy Balance, Climate, and Life \\-- Work of M. Budyko

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahalan, R. F.

    2003-12-01

    This talk will review the work of Mikhail I. Budyko, author of "Climate and Life" and many other works, who died recently at the age of 81 in St. Petersburg, Russia. He directed the Division for Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute. We will explore Budyko's work in clarifying the role of energy balance in determining planetary climate, and the role of climate in regulating Earth's biosphere.

  16. Energy Balance, Climate, and Life - Work of M. Budyko

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahalan, Robert F.

    2004-01-01

    This talk will review the work of Mikhail I. Budyko, author of "Climate and Life" and many other works, who died recently at age 81, in St Petersburg, Russia. He directed the Division for Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute. We will explore Budyko's work in clarifying the role of energy balance in determining planetary climate, and the role of climate in regulating Earth s biosphere.

  17. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  18. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  19. Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-11-01

    Design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of K-12 schools in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into construction or renovation plans, schools can reduce energy consumption and costs.

  20. Energy Assurance: Essential Energy Technologies for Climate Protection and Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Boudreaux, Philip R [ORNL; Dean, David Jarvis [ORNL; Fulkerson, William [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Gaddis, Abigail [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Graham, Robin Lambert [ORNL; Graves, Ronald L [ORNL; Hopson, Dr Janet L [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Hughes, Patrick [ORNL; Lapsa, Melissa Voss [ORNL; Mason, Thom [ORNL; Standaert, Robert F [ORNL; Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL; Zucker, Alexander [ORNL

    2009-12-01

    We present and apply a new method for analyzing the significance of advanced technology for achieving two important national energy goals: climate protection and energy security. Quantitative metrics for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and oil independence in 2030 are specified, and the impacts of 11 sets of energy technologies are analyzed using a model that employs the Kaya identity and incorporates the uncertainty of technological breakthroughs. The goals examined are a 50% to 80% reduction in CO2 emissions from energy use by 2050 and increased domestic hydrocarbon fuels supply and decreased demand that sum to 11 mmbd by 2030. The latter is intended to insure that the economic costs of oil dependence are not more than 1% of U.S. GDP with 95% probability by 2030. Perhaps the most important implication of the analysis is that meeting both energy goals requires a high probability of success (much greater than even odds) for all 11 technologies. Two technologies appear to be indispensable for accomplishment of both goals: carbon capture and storage, and advanced fossil liquid fuels. For reducing CO2 by more than 50% by 2050, biomass energy and electric drive (fuel cell or battery powered) vehicles also appear to be necessary. Every one of the 11 technologies has a powerful influence on the probability of achieving national energy goals. From the perspective of technology policy, conflict between the CO2 mitigation and energy security is negligible. These general results appear to be robust to a wide range of technology impact estimates; they are substantially unchanged by a Monte Carlo simulation that allows the impacts of technologies to vary by 20%.

  1. Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2004-11-01

    The Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools--Tropical Island Climates provides school boards, administrators, and design staff with guidance to help them make informed decisions about energy and environmental issues important to school systems and communities. These design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of your K-12 school in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into their construction or renovation plans, schools can significantly reduce energy consumption and costs.

  2. Energy policy design and China’s local climate governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ting, Guan; Delman, Jørgen

    2017-01-01

    This study probes into climate policy design at city level in China, with Hangzhou’s energy efficiency and renewable energy policies between 2005 and 2014 as a case. The study applies a political action arena approach to accentuate the importance of different normative preferences behind climate...

  3. Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

  4. "EARTH: The Operators' Manual" - a hybrid model (TV+online+in-person) to effectively communicate climate change science alongside sustainable energy solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines-stiles, G.; Alley, R. B.; Akuginow, E.

    2011-12-01

    Recent public opinion surveys have found that Americans underestimate the degree of agreement by climate scientists about global warming and climate change, and - despite growing evidence of ice sheet loss, ocean acidification, sea level rise and extreme weather events - believe less in warming trends in 2011 than they did earlier. The issue has become politicized and controversial. "EARTH: The Operators' Manual" is an informal science education project supported by NSF, the National Science Foundation. Its ambitious goal is to use a hybrid mix of broadcast programs appearing on public television and hosted by Penn State geoscientist, Richard Alley, together with on-site outreach events and online resources and tools, to present core climate science in engaging ways, and to combine that presentation of objective research with an overview of sustainable energy solutions. The project's content and communication strategies have been shaped in response to analyses of public opinion such as the SIX AMERICAS study and aim to address common "skeptic" arguments and share essential climate science. Social science research has also found that audiences seem more open to scientific information where the possibility of a positive response is also offered. The first hour-long PBS program aired nationally in April 2011, has since been re-broadcast, and is also available online. Two more programs will air in 2012, and the presentation at the Fall AGU Conference will preview segments from both programs. Five regionally-diverse science centers (in San Diego, Raleigh NC, St. Paul MN, Fort Worth TX and Portland OR) have hosted outreach events, with Richard Alley and other project participants, and will continue with additional activities through summer 2012. The project's website includes video clips, case studies of energy-saving initiatives world-wide and across the USA, plus an interactive "Energy Gauge" inviting users to assess their current Home, Travel, Food, and Goods and

  5. Energy taxes, resource taxes and quantity rationing for climate protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisenack, Klaus [Oldenburg Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economics; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Kalkuhl, Matthias [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Economic sectors react strategically to climate policy, aiming at a re-distribution of rents. Established analysis suggests a Pigouvian emission tax as efficient instrument, but also recommends factor input or output taxes under specific conditions. However, existing studies leave it open whether output taxes, input taxes or input rationing perform better, and at best only touch their distributional consequences. When emissions correspond to extracted ressources, it is questionable whether taxes are effective at all. We determine the effectiveness, efficiency and functional income distribution for these instruments in the energy and resource sector, based on a game theoretic growth model with explicit factor markets and policy instruments. Market equilibrium depends on a government that acts as a Stackelberg leader with a climate protection goal. We find that resource taxes and cumulative resource quantity rationing achieve this objective efficiently. Energy taxation is only second best. Mitigation generates a substantial ''climate rent'' in the resource sector that can be converted to transfer incomes by taxes. (orig.)

  6. Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

    2014-04-01

    Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

  7. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-12-01

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  8. Potential impacts of climate change on the built environment: ASHRAE climate zones, building codes and national energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    New, Joshua Ryan [ORNL; Kumar, Jitendra [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M. [ORNL

    2017-10-01

    Statement of the Problem: ASHRAE releases updates to 90.1 “Energy Standard for Buildings except Low-Rise Residential Buildings” every three years resulting in a 3.7%-17.3% increase in energy efficiency for buildings with each release. This is adopted by or informs building codes in nations across the globe, is the National Standard for the US, and individual states elect which release year of the standard they will enforce. These codes are built upon Standard 169 “Climatic Data for Building Design Standards,” the latest 2017 release of which defines climate zones based on 8, 118 weather stations throughout the world and data from the past 8-25 years. This data may not be indicative of the weather that new buildings built today, will see during their upcoming 30-120 year lifespan. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: Using more modern, high-resolution datasets from climate satellites, IPCC climate models (PCM and HadGCM), high performance computing resources (Titan) and new capabilities for clustering and optimization the authors briefly analyzed different methods for redefining climate zones. Using bottom-up analysis of multiple meteorological variables which were the subject matter, experts selected as being important to energy consumption, rather than the heating/cooling degree days currently used. Findings: We analyzed the accuracy of redefined climate zones, compared to current climate zones and how the climate zones moved under different climate change scenarios, and quantified the accuracy of these methods on a local level, at a national scale for the US. Conclusion & Significance: There is likely to be a significant annual, national energy and cost (billions USD) savings that could be realized by adjusting climate zones to take into account anticipated trends or scenarios in regional weather patterns.

  9. Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate policy and renewable energy policy instruments. It shows that, even where CO2 emissions are duly priced, specific incentives for supporting the early deployment of renewable energy technologies are justified by the steep learning curves of nascent technologies. This early investment reduces costs in the longer term and makes renewable energy affordable when it needs to be deployed on a very large scale to fully contribute to climate change mitigation and energy security. The paper also reveals other noteworthy interaction effects of climate policy and renewable policy instruments on the wholesale electricity prices in deregulated markets, which open new areas for future research.

  10. Bringing solutions to big challenges. Energy - climate - technology (ECT)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The conference contains 45 presentations within the sections integrated policy and strategic perspectives on energy, climate change and technology, energy efficiency with prospects and measures, climate change and challenges for offshore energy and technology, possibilities for technology utilization, nuclear technology developments including some papers on thorium utilization, ethics of energy resource use and climate change, challenges and possibilities for the Western Norway and sustainability and security in an ECT-context. Some economic aspects are discussed as well. 16 of the 45 papers have been indexed for the database (tk)

  11. Climate Modeling in the Calculus and Differential Equations Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kose, Emek; Kunze, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Students in college-level mathematics classes can build the differential equations of an energy balance model of the Earth's climate themselves, from a basic understanding of the background science. Here we use variable albedo and qualitative analysis to find stable and unstable equilibria of such a model, providing a problem or perhaps a…

  12. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  13. The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jason P.; Kay, Merlinde; Prasad, Abhnil; Pitman, Andy

    2018-02-01

    The Paris Agreement limits global average temperature rise to 2 °C and commits to pursuing efforts in limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This will require rapid reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases and the eventual decarbonisation of the global economy. Wind energy is an established technology to help achieve emissions reductions, with a cumulative global installed capacity of ~486 GW (2016). Focusing on Australia, we assess the future economic viability of wind energy using a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution regional climate simulations forced by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) output. We examine both near future (around 2030) and far future (around 2070) changes. Extractable wind power changes vary across the continent, though the most spatially coherent change is a small but significant decrease across southern regions. The cost of future wind energy generation, measured via the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE), increases negligibly in the future in regions with significant existing installed capacity. Technological developments in wind energy generation more than compensate for projected small reductions in wind, decreasing the LCOE by around 30%. These developments ensure viability for existing wind farms, and enhance the economic viability of proposed wind farms in Western Australian and Tasmania. Wind energy is therefore a resilient source of electricity over most of Australia and technological innovation entering the market will open new regions for energy production in the future.

  14. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

    2004-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling toolsfor examining the impact of climate change...... on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: - Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period(1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations...... and reanalysis data products. - The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 – December 30, 1990)based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change...

  15. Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, L.O.

    1990-01-01

    One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

  16. Grenelle de l'Environnement: the climate-energy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    After having recalled the main principles of the French 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' environmental policy (integration of cost for climate and biodiversity in large project choices) and discussed the articulation with international and European challenges (international negotiations, EU ETS, adjustment taxes), this report presents and discusses the different commitments, objectives, demands and adopted measures in different sectors: buildings, transports, energy management, development of renewable energies, climate-energy contribution, agriculture, regions and urban planning

  17. Climatic threat, energy crisis, and illusions of a nuclear revival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-10-01

    While considering the example of the French nuclear reactor fleet, and while indicating various data concerning energy savings, CO 2 emissions, energy consumption in France and in other European countries, and also the occurrence of incidents in nuclear plants, this publication discusses the context of a climatic crisis, energy crisis, and of a possible nuclear revival boosted by the decreasing use of fossil energies to comply with the objective of reduction of greenhouse gases. It discusses the relationship a nuclear revival would have with climate change, with energy safety and with energy transition

  18. Energy security and climate change : a Canadian primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonick, C.

    2007-01-01

    This book addresses the reality of climate change and peak oil, and emphasizes the need to make the transition from carbon energies to renewable energies. The book is a compilation of 18 leading authorities' work on energy use and its impact on the environment. Various solutions and sustainable alternatives to carbon energy are proposed. The book links fossil fuels, including oil sands, as a major cause of climate change. The book also addresses other topical issues, such as the nuclear revival, the U.S. energy act and electricity, carbon trading, and energy security in Canada. The authors emphasize the need to act in a proactive way to ensure a sustainable future. refs.

  19. ESCAPE. Energy Security and ClimAte Policy Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessels, J.R.; Bakker, S.J.A.

    2005-05-01

    Climate change and energy supply security policy are currently not integrated in most countries, despite possible synergies. The ESCAPE approach suggests that linking climate change policy with security of energy supply could improve climate change policy at both a national and international level. The report explores the interaction between policies of energy security and climate change and the options of inclusion of energy security issues into national and international post-2012 climate negotiations. It emphasises the importance of the US in this regard and takes a close look at US energy policy documents. It appears that current US energy policy is not directed towards reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuel, even though the government has a strong preference for this. This study shows that measures to reduce import dependency are mostly synergetic with climate policy and gives some options that can be implemented. On an international level, linkages of energy security into post-2012 climate policy may be possible in sectoral bottom-up approaches or technology frameworks. As well, inclusion of a security of supply criterion in international emission trading instruments may provide potential benefits

  20. The energy transition in a climate-constrained world: Regional vs. global optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brede, M.; de Vries, B.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a stylized economy-energy-climate model and discuss the role of the atmosphere, fossil fuels, and a stock of accumulated knowledge about renewable energy technologies in collaboratively and competitively managed worlds. The model highlights that assumptions about the 'degree

  1. Mixing parametrizations for ocean climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, Anatoly; Moshonkin, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    The algorithm is presented of splitting the total evolutionary equations for the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and turbulence dissipation frequency (TDF), which is used to parameterize the viscosity and diffusion coefficients in ocean circulation models. The turbulence model equations are split into the stages of transport-diffusion and generation-dissipation. For the generation-dissipation stage, the following schemes are implemented: the explicit-implicit numerical scheme, analytical solution and the asymptotic behavior of the analytical solutions. The experiments were performed with different mixing parameterizations for the modelling of Arctic and the Atlantic climate decadal variability with the eddy-permitting circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) using vertical grid refinement in the zone of fully developed turbulence. The proposed model with the split equations for turbulence characteristics is similar to the contemporary differential turbulence models, concerning the physical formulations. At the same time, its algorithm has high enough computational efficiency. Parameterizations with using the split turbulence model make it possible to obtain more adequate structure of temperature and salinity at decadal timescales, compared to the simpler Pacanowski-Philander (PP) turbulence parameterization. Parameterizations with using analytical solution or numerical scheme at the generation-dissipation step of the turbulence model leads to better representation of ocean climate than the faster parameterization using the asymptotic behavior of the analytical solution. At the same time, the computational efficiency left almost unchanged relative to the simple PP parameterization. Usage of PP parametrization in the circulation model leads to realistic simulation of density and circulation with violation of T,S-relationships. This error is majorly avoided with using the proposed parameterizations containing the split turbulence model

  2. Modeling and assessing international climate financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

    2016-06-01

    Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

  3. The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuying [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Marchand, Roger [University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Kollias, Pavlos [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Clothiaux, Eugene E. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Johnson, Karen [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Swales, Dustin [CIRES and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Tang, Shuaiqi [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Haynes, John M. [Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Collis, Scott [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois; Jensen, Michael [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Bharadwaj, Nitin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Hardin, Joseph [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Isom, Bradley [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-01-01

    Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are

  4. Modelling energy systems for developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, F.; Benders, R.M.J.; Moll, H.C.

    2007-01-01

    Developing countries' energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries' energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban-rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements

  5. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies - a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.......5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co......-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters...

  6. Energy Optimized Envelope for Cold Climate Indoor Agricultural Growing Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Hachem-Vermette

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study of the development of building envelope design for improved energy performance of a controlled indoor agricultural growing center in a cold climate zone (Canada, 54° N. A parametric study is applied to analyze the effects of envelope parameters on the building energy loads for heating, cooling and lighting, required for maintaining growing requirement as obtained in the literature. A base case building of rectangular layout, incorporating conventionally applied insulation and glazing components, is initially analyzed, employing the EnergyPlus simulation program. Insulation and glazing parameters are then modified to minimize energy loads under assumed minimal lighting requirement. This enhanced design forms a base case for analyzing effects of additional design parameters—solar radiation control, air infiltration rate, sky-lighting and the addition of phase change materials—to obtain an enhanced design that minimizes energy loads. A second stage of the investigation applies a high lighting level to the enhanced design and modifies the design parameters to improve performance. A final part of the study is an investigation of the mechanical systems and renewable energy generation. Through the enhancement of building envelope components and day-lighting design, combined heating and cooling load of the low level lighting configuration is reduced by 65% and lighting load by 10%, relative to the base case design. Employing building integrated PV (BIPV system, this optimized model can achieve energy positive status. Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC, are discussed, as potential means to offset increased energy consumption associated with the high-level lighting model.

  7. Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, Matthias [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)]. E-mail: mruth1@umd.edu; Lin, A.-C. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)

    2006-11-15

    This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state.

  8. Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruth, Matthias; Lin, A.-C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state

  9. UN Convention on Climate Change: effects on Australia's energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.P.

    1992-01-01

    The Australian government's interim planning target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions calls for a larger cut in emissions than is implied by the commitments contained in the recently completed United Nations Convention on Climate Change. The commitments in the Convention also leave considerable scope for how fast and by how much emissions are to be reduced. The aim in this article is to present an analysis of the effects on the Australian energy sector of stabilising carbon dioxide emissions at various levels and by various dates consistent with the commitments in the Convention, and to compare these effects with those of meeting the Australian government's current interim target. The major analytical tool used is MENSA, a multiperiod linear program-mining model of the Australian energy sector, The stabilisation targets are modelled to involve a gradual reduction in the amount of coal used for electricity generation from 1995 onwards, but coal continues to be the major source of base load electricity over the entire period to 2020. By contrast, modelling of the government's interim target indicates that coal would have to be almost completely phased out as a fuel for electricity generation by 2005. Analysis using the MENSA linear programming model of the Australian energy system also indicates that the total discounted cost of meeting such targets would be between $4.7 billion and $9.0 billion, compared with $41.2 billion for the government's interim target. 6 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs

  10. Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James I Watling

    Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

  11. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  12. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  13. The Haute-Normandie Climate Air Energy Regional Scheme - Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    This regional public and planning document (SRCAE) first proposes a regional diagnosis in terms of energetic situation, climatic situation, air quality situation, building condition (in terms of energy), transports (characteristics of regional transport, of person and goods transport), industries and enterprises (important role of oil and chemical activities, low level of renewable and recovery energies), agriculture and forest, renewable energies (biomass and wastes, wind energy, solar photovoltaic, hydroelectricity, renewable heat production), and territory vulnerability in front of climate change. The second part states objectives and orientations: definition of scenarios, and of sector-based objectives (in the building, transport, agricultural, and industrial sectors, in the development of renewable energies, and in terms of adaptation to climate change). Synthetic approaches are then stated in relationship with different challenges related to sustainable behaviours and consumption, promotion of professions related to energy transition, diffusion of good practices in the fields of energy efficiency and emission reduction, sustainable land development, promotion of environmental mutations for the regional economy, innovation to face climate and energy challenges, development of renewable energies, anticipation of the adaptation to climate change, and SRCAE follow-up and assessment. Sheets of definitions of objectives are given for each sector. A synthetic version of this study is provided

  14. Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feser, F.

    2005-07-01

    In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

  15. Redistribution effects of energy and climate policy: The electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirth, Lion; Ueckerdt, Falko

    2013-01-01

    Energy and climate policies are usually seen as measures to internalize externalities. However, as a side effect, the introduction of these policies redistributes wealth between consumers and producers, and within these groups. While redistribution is seldom the focus of the academic literature in energy economics, it plays a central role in public debates and policy decisions. This paper compares the distributional effects of two major electricity policies: support schemes for renewable energy sources, and CO 2 pricing. We find that the redistribution effects of both policies are large, and they work in opposed directions. While renewables support transfers wealth from producers to consumers, carbon pricing does the opposite. More specifically, we show that moderate amounts of wind subsidies can increase consumer surplus, even if consumers bear the subsidy costs. CO 2 pricing, in contrast, increases aggregated producer surplus, even without free allocation of emission allowances; however, not all types of producers benefit. These findings are derived from an analytical model of electricity markets, and a calibrated numerical model of Northwestern Europe. Our findings imply that if policy makers want to avoid large redistribution they might prefer a mix of policies, even if CO 2 pricing alone is the first-best climate policy in terms of allocative efficiency. -- Graphical abstract: Display Omitted -- Highlights: •CO 2 pricing and renewables support have strikingly different impacts on rents. •Carbon pricing increases producer surplus and decreases consumer surplus. •Renewable support schemes (portfolio standards, feed-in tariffs) do the opposite. •We model these impacts theoretically and quantify them for Europe. •Redistribution of wealth is found to be significant in size

  16. The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Glenn A.; Warner, Kevin J.

    2016-01-01

    World population is projected to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, yet nearly one-fifth of the world's current 7.2 billion live without access to electricity. Though universal energy access is desirable, a significant reduction in fossil fuel usage is required before mid-century if global warming is to be limited to <2 °C. Here we quantify the changes in the global energy mix necessary to address population and climate change under two energy-use scenarios, finding that renewable energy production (9% in 2014) must comprise 87–94% of global energy consumption by 2100. Our study suggests >50% renewable energy needs to occur by 2028 in a <2 °C warming scenario, but not until 2054 in an unconstrained energy use scenario. Given the required rate and magnitude of this transition to renewable energy, it is unlikely that the <2 °C goal can be met. Focus should be placed on expanding renewable energy as quickly as possible in order to limit warming to 2.5–3 °C. - Highlights: •World population growth, energy scarcity, and climate are interrelated issues. •Non-renewable energy sources are projected to peak around mid-century. •Renewable energy must provide 50+% of total energy by 2028 to maintain <2 °C warming goal. •Renewable energy must provide 87+% of total energy by 2100 regardless of climate concerns.

  17. Understanding National Models for Climate Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, A.; Weingartner, K.

    2017-12-01

    National-level climate assessments have been produced or are underway in a number of countries. These efforts showcase a variety of approaches to mapping climate impacts onto human and natural systems, and involve a variety of development processes, organizational structures, and intended purposes. This presentation will provide a comparative overview of national `models' for climate assessments worldwide, drawing from a geographically diverse group of nations with varying capacities to conduct such assessments. Using an illustrative sampling of assessment models, the presentation will highlight the range of assessment mandates and requirements that drive this work, methodologies employed, focal areas, and the degree to which international dimensions are included for each nation's assessment. This not only allows the U.S. National Climate Assessment to be better understood within an international context, but provides the user with an entry point into other national climate assessments around the world, enabling a better understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities societies face.

  18. Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

    2012-01-01

    We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

  19. Climate information for the application of solar energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robles-Gil, S.

    1997-01-01

    In view of population growth, industrialization and urbanization which provoked increasing energy demand there has been an increasing interest in developing new technologies that use various renewable energy sources and have less environmental impact, such as solar, wind, tidal and biomass. Solar energy is one of the energy resources with a wide geographical distribution. Nowadays, its contribution to the world's energy supply is very small, but it is considered an important long term option which will satisfy, together with conventional energy sources, the future energy needs of the world. The main objective of this work is to report the actual uses of the principal types of solar energy systems, based on their climatic, technological and economical context. This is to improve the dissemination of information on the application of climate knowledge and data, especially by national meteorological services, with the purpose to improve the planning, design and operation of solar energy systems, as well as facilitate their more widespread use

  20. Moving toward Collective Impact in Climate Change Literacy: The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledley, Tamara Shapiro; Gold, Anne U.; Niepold, Frank; McCaffrey, Mark

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, various climate change education efforts have been launched, including federally (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Science Foundation, etc.) and privately funded projects. In addition, climate literacy and energy literacy frameworks have been developed and…

  1. Energy Sources | Climate Neutral Research Campuses | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sources Energy Sources Many opportunities exist to improve the efficiency of energy supply systems at the central plant and then evaluate potential renewable energy sources and systems. Central Plant Begin by evaluating energy efficiency at the central plant through: Fuel Sources Heat Pumps and Combined

  2. Quantifying water and energy budgets and the impacts of climatic and human factors in the Haihe River Basin, China: 1. Model and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ying; Shen, Yanjun

    2015-09-01

    We have developed an operational model to simulate water and energy fluxes in the Haihe River Basin (231,800 km2 in size) for the past 28 years. This model is capable of estimating water and energy fluxes of irrigated croplands and heterogeneous grids. The model was validated using actual evapotranspiration (ETa) measured by an eddy covariance system, measured soil moisture in croplands, groundwater level measurements over the piedmont plain and runoff observations in a mountainous catchment. A long-term time series of water and energy balance components were then simulated at a daily time step by integrating remotely sensed information and meteorological data to examine the spatial and temporal distribution and changes in water and energy fluxes in the basin over the past 28 years. The results show that net radiation (Rn) in the mountainous regions is generally higher than that in the plain regions. ETa in the plain regions is higher than that in the mountainous regions mostly because of higher air temperature and larger areas of irrigated farmland. Higher sensible heat flux (H) and lower ETa in the urban areas are possibly due to less vegetation cover, an impervious surface, rapid drainage, and the heat island effect of cities. During the study period, a water deficit continuously occurred in the plain regions because of extensive pumping of groundwater for irrigation to meet the crop water requirements. Irrigation has led to significant groundwater depletion, which poses a substantial challenge to the sustainability of water resources in this basin.

  3. Urban climate and energy demand interaction in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasilova, E. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Demchenko, P. F.

    2017-11-01

    The regional and urban climate change in Northern Eurasia is one of the main challenges for sustainable development of human habitats situated in boreal and temperate areas. The half of primary energy is spent for space heating even under quite a mild European climate. Implementation of the district heating in urban areas is currently seen as one of the key conditions of sustainable development. The clear understanding of main problems of the urban climateenergy demand interaction is crucial for both small towns and megacities. The specific features of the urban energy systems in Finland, Russia and China under the changing climate conditions were studied. Regional manifestations of the climate change were examined. The climate projections were established for urban regions of the Northern Eurasia. It was shown that the climate warming is likely to continue intensively there. History and actual development trends were discussed for the urban district heating systems in Russia, China and Finland. Common challenges linked with the climate change have been identified for the considered areas. Adaptation possibilities were discussed taking into account climate-energy interactions.

  4. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  5. Modelling of anthropogenic and natural climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Mikolajewicz, U; Bakan, S [Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)

    1993-06-01

    The delay of anthropogenic climate change caused by oceans and other slowly reacting climate system components forces us to numerical modeling as the basis of decisions. For three three-dimensional numerical examples, namely transient coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the additional greenhouse effect, internal ocean-atmosphere variability, and disturbance by soot particles from burning oil wells, the present-day status is described. From all anthropogenic impacts on the radiative balance, the contribution from trace gases is the most important.

  6. Energy centre microgrid model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasonen, R.

    2011-09-15

    A simulation model of Energy centre microgrid made with PSCAD simulation software version 4.2.1 has been built in SGEM Smart Grids and Energy Markets (SGEM) work package 6.6. Microgrid is an autonomous electric power system which can operate separate from common distribution system. The idea of energy centre microgrid concept was considered in Master of Science thesis 'Community Microgrid - A Building block of Finnish Smart Grid'. The name of energy centre microgrid comes from a fact that production and storage units are concentrated into a single location, an energy centre. This centre feeds the loads which can be households or industrial loads. Power direction flow on the demand side remains same compared to the current distribution system and allows to the use of standard fuse protection in the system. The model consists of photovoltaic solar array, battery unit, variable frequency boost converter, inverter, isolation transformer and demand side (load) model. The model is capable to automatically switch to islanded mode when there is a fault in outside grid and back to parallel operation mode when fault is removed. The modelled system responses well to load changes and total harmonic distortion related to 50Hz base frequency is kept under 1.5% while operating and feeding passive load. (orig.)

  7. Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

  8. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

  9. Effective climate-energy solutions, escape routes and peak oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. van den

    2012-01-01

    Many well-intended climate-energy strategies are ineffective in the absence of serious environmental regulation. This holds, among others, for direct support of clean energy, voluntary energy conservation, technical standards on a limited set of products, unilateral stringent carbon pricing, and awaiting peak oil as a climate strategy. All of these suffer from “escape routes” that indirectly increase CO 2 emissions and thus make the original strategy ineffective. On the other hand, environmental regulation alone may lead to a myopia-bias, stimulating early dominance of cost-effective technologies and a focus on incremental innovations associated with such technologies rather than on radical innovations. Although adopting a partial viewpoint keeps the analysis simple, we urgently need a more inclusive systems perspective on climate solutions. This will allow the formulation of an effective climate policy package that addresses the various escape routes. - Highlights: ► Many well-intended climate-energy strategies are ineffective because of escape routes. ► In this context the relationship between peak oil and climate policy receives attention. ► Environmental regulation alone creates myopia-bias, the resolution of which requires technology-specific policies. ► To formulate an effective climate policy package an inclusive systems perspective is needed.

  10. Industrial Energy Efficiency and Climate Change Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Bernstein, Lenny; Roy, Joyashree; Price, Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Harnisch, Jochen

    2009-02-02

    Industry contributes directly and indirectly (through consumed electricity) about 37% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, of which over 80% is from energy use. Total energy-related emissions, which were 9.9 GtCO2 in 2004, have grown by 65% since 1971. Even so, industry has almost continuously improved its energy efficiency over the past decades. In the near future, energy efficiency is potentially the most important and cost-effective means for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from industry. This paper discusses the potential contribution of industrial energy efficiency technologies and policies to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030.

  11. The E U Climate-Energy Package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clini, C.; Angeloni, M.

    2009-01-01

    Among the climate measures approved by the European Parliament last December, particular attention deserve the agreement on the E U CO 2 Emission Trading Scheme (Ets), as well as the Effort-Sharing Decision, ensuring that Member States contribute to the E U objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in non- Ets sectors. [it

  12. Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.

  13. Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, Ponte P. Bucci, Cubo 31C, I-87036, Rende (CS) (Italy); Vecchio, Antonio, E-mail: tommaso.alberti@unical.it, E-mail: tommasoalberti89@gmail.com [LESIA—Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, 5 place Jules Janssen, F-92190, Meudon (France)

    2017-07-20

    The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.

  14. Climate Change Taxes and Energy Efficiency in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasahara, S.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J.; Jacoby, H.; Ellerman, A.D.

    2007-01-01

    In 2003 Japan proposed a Climate Change Tax to reduce its CO2 emissions to the level required by the Kyoto Protocol. If implemented, the tax would be levied on fossil fuel use and the revenue distributed to encourage the purchase of energy efficient equipment. Analysis using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model shows that this policy is unlikely to bring Japan into compliance with its Kyoto target unless the subsidy encourages improvement in energy intensity well beyond Japan's recent historical experience. Similar demand-management programs in the US, where there has been extensive experience, have not been nearly as effective as they would need to be to achieve energy efficiency goals of the proposal. The Tax proposal also calls for limits on international emission trading. We find that this limit substantially affects costs of compliance. The welfare loss with full emissions trading is 1/6 that when Japan meets its target though domestic actions only, the carbon price is lower, and there is a smaller loss of energy-intensive exports. Japan can achieve substantial savings from emissions trading even under cases where, for example, the full amount of the Russian allowance is not available in international markets

  15. Energy policy after 2020 : Economic arguments to pursue energy policy for non-climate related reasons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kocsis, V.; Koutstaal, P.; Tieben, B.; van Hout, M.; Hof, B.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigates the contribution of sustainable energy policy and energy saving policy to the public goals of energy policy in the Netherlands. Not surprisingly current discussion about sustainable energy policy focus on the contribution of energy policy to the goals of climate policy,

  16. Energy modelling towards low carbon development of Beijing in 2030

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Guangling; Guerrero, Josep M.; Jiang, Kejun

    2017-01-01

    Beijing, as the capital of China, is under the high pressure of climate change and pollution. The consumption of non-renewable energy is one of the most important sources of the CO2 emissions, which cause climate changes. This paper presents a study on the energy system modelling towards renewabl...

  17. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

  18. Climate and Southern Africa's Water-Energy-Food Nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, D.; Osborn, T.; Dorling, S.; Ringler, C.; Lankford, B.; Dalin, C.; Thurlow, J.; Zhu, T.; Deryng, D.; Landman, W.; Archer van Garderen, E.; Krueger, T.; Lebek, K.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous challenges coalesce to make Southern Africa emblematic of the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus. Rainfall and river flows in the region show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate variability and change is high, for example, the contribution of electricity produced from hydroelectric sources is over 30% in Madagascar and Zimbabwe and almost 100% in the DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. The region's economy is closely linked with that of the rest of the African continent and climate-sensitive food products are an important item of trade. Southern Africa's population is concentrated in regions exposed to high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, and will increase rapidly over the next four decades. The capacity to manage the effects of climate variability tends, however, to be low. Moreover, with climate change annual precipitation levels, soil moisture and runoff are likely to decrease and rising temperatures will increase evaporative demand. Despite high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, the sectoral and cross-sectoral water-energy-food linkages with climate in Southern Africa have not been considered in detail. Lack of data and questionable reliability are compounded by complex dynamic relationships. We review the role of climate in Southern Africa's nexus, complemented by empirical analysis of national level data on climate, water resources, crop and energy production, and economic activity. Our aim is to examine the role of climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations in the nexus, and to improve understanding of the magnitude and temporal dimensions of their interactions. We first consider national level exposure of food, water and energy production to climate in aggregate economic terms and then examine the linkages between interannual and multi-year climate variability and economic activity, focusing on food and

  19. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  20. Does climate policy lead to relocation with adverse effects for GHG emissions or not? A first assessment of the spillovers of climate policy for energy intensive industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikonomou, V.; Patel, M.; Worrell, E.

    2004-12-01

    Energy-intensive industries play a special role in climate policy. World-wide, industry is responsible for about 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. The emission intensity makes these industries an important target for climate policy. At the same time these industries are particularly vulnerable if climate policy would lead to higher energy costs, and if they would be unable to offset these increased costs. The side effects of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries are typically referred to as 'spillovers'. Negative spillovers reduce the effectiveness of a climate policy, while positive spillovers increase its effectiveness. This paper provides a review of the literature on the spillover effects of climate policy for carbon intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased share of non-Annex 1 countries. However, this trend is primarily driven by demand growth, and there is no empirical evidence for a role of environmental policy in these development patterns. In contrast, climate models do show a strong carbon leakage of emissions from these industries. Even though that climate policy may have a more profound impact than previous environmental policies, the results of the modelling are ambiguous. The energy and carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries is rapidly declining in most developing countries, and reducing the 'gap' between industrialized and developing countries. Still, considerable potential for emission reduction exists, both in developing and industrialized countries. Technology development is likely to deliver further reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions. Despite the potential for positive spillovers in the energy-intensive industries, none of the models used in the analysis of spillovers of climate policies has an endogenous representation of technological change for the energy-intensive industries. This underlines the need for a better understanding of

  1. Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul

    2015-10-01

    The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.

  2. An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iotova, A [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

    1996-12-31

    A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

  3. An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iotova, A. [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

    1995-12-31

    A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

  4. Hemispheric symmetry of the Earth's Energy Balance as a fundamental constraint on the Earth's climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, G. L.; Webster, P. J.; OBrien, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    We currently lack a quantitative understanding of how the Earth's energy balance and the poleward energy transport adjust to different forcings that determine climate change. Currently, there are no constraints that guide this understanding. We will demonstrate that the Earth's energy balance exhibits a remarkable symmetry about the equator, and that this symmetry is a necessary condition of a steady state climate. Our analysis points to clouds as the principal agent that highly regulates this symmetry and sets the steady state. The existence of this thermodynamic steady-state constraint on climate and the symmetry required to sustain it leads to important inferences about the synchronous nature of climate changes between hemispheres, offering for example insights on mechanisms that can sustain global ice ages forced by asymmetric hemispheric solar radiation variations or how climate may respond to increases in greenhouse gas concentration. Further inferences regarding cloud effects on climate can also be deduced without resorting to the complex and intricate processes of cloud formation, whose representation continues to challenge the climate modeling community. The constraint suggests cloud feedbacks must be negative buffering the system against change. We will show that this constraint doesn't exist in the current CMIP5 model experiments and the lack of such a constraint suggests there is insufficient buffering in models in response to external forcings

  5. Energy exporters and climate change. Potential economic impacts of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wit, R.C.N.

    1997-06-01

    This review paper has been written on a commission by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London and is part of a project to investigate the possible impact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on energy markets and therefore on countries exporting oil, gas and coal. The aim of the project conducted by RIIA is to achieve a better understanding of the role of energy exporters in international climate change negotiations on the road towards the second Conference of Parties in Kyoto at the end of 1997 and the underlying national strategies. All four 'economy'-oriented global model studies reviewed in this paper indicate that CO2-reduction policies would cause wide differences in welfare effects across regions. It appears that energy-exporting countries would suffer the greatest welfare losses. Although several policy instruments can be implemented to achieve CO2-emission reductions, only carbon taxes are considered in the models. The model results show that if world level CO2 emissions are approximately stabilized at their 1990 levels, the cumulative losses in GDP of energy exporters generally range between 3% and 12% by 2010. It should be strongly emphasized that the sign and magnitude of the economic impact of CO2 policy on energy exporters depend critically on how the policy instrument is designed. In the case of a carbon tax the following factors are crucial: (1) the choice between a consumption and a production tax, (2) whether it is based on a global or unilateral agreement, (3) the mode of revenue redistribution among countries and (4) whether emission trading is allowed. 27 refs

  6. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  7. A climate responsive urban design tool: a platform to improve energy efficiency in a dry hot climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Dallal, Norhan; Visser, Florentine

    2017-09-01

    In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, new urban developments should address the climatic conditions to improve outdoor comfort and to reduce the energy consumption of buildings. This article describes a design tool that supports climate responsive design for a dry hot climate. The approach takes the climate as an initiator for the conceptual urban form with a more energy-efficient urban morphology. The methodology relates the different passive strategies suitable for major climate conditions in MENA region (dry-hot) to design parameters that create the urban form. This parametric design approach is the basis for a tool that generates conceptual climate responsive urban forms so as to assist the urban designer early in the design process. Various conceptual scenarios, generated by a computational model, are the results of the proposed platform. A practical application of the approach is conducted on a New Urban Community in Aswan (Egypt), showing the economic feasibility of the resulting urban form and morphology, and the proposed tool.

  8. Climate and energy targets of the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stolwijk, H.; Veenendaal, P.

    2007-01-01

    Attention is paid to two important parts of the targets for climate and energy which were determined by the European Council in March 2007 for the year 2020: (1) the impact of the emission reduction target and the correlations with the sustainable development targets; and (2) the obstacles for the European Union on the way to thar 20% renewable energy target [nl

  9. Report on broad reconsiderations. Part 1. Energy and Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-04-01

    In twenty policy areas various working groups have studied variants that can lead to a 20% budget cut in the government budgets of the Netherlands, which must be realized in 2015. The aim of the reconsiderations is to use less government means to realize the same results, or even better results if possible. The broad reconsideration in the field of energy and climate focuses on the expenditure for renewable energy and energy efficiency, mitigating (inter)national climate policy and fiscal benefits. This report addresses six policy variants. [nl

  10. Nuclear energy, the climate and nuclear disarmament

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, V.

    1998-01-01

    The main concern of Pugwash, with very good reason, is nuclear disarmament, but a negative attitude towards nuclear energy is not only futile, but counterproductive as it misses opportunities to appropriately influence its development. Since nuclear energy cannot be abandoned for ecological (decrease in greenhouse gases emission) and economic reasons as a long term energy source, then efforts should be devoted to make it safe from proliferation, which is possible from scientific and technological point of view

  11. Climatic impact of alternative energy sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, J

    1979-01-01

    Detailed evaluations have suggested that the order of magnitude of energy demand 50 yr from the present will be 25-40 TW compared with about 8 TW at the present day. Environmental impacts are discussed of three energy-supply sources that could be developed on a large-enough scale to satisfy a demand of this magnitude: solar and nuclear energy and fossil fuels. 14 refs.

  12. Opportunity knocks - the sustainable energy industry and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, B.; Keegan, P. [International Institute for Energy Conservation, Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Climate change mitigation, if intelligently undertaken, can stimulate economic growth. The main tools available for this task are energy efficiency, renewable energy, and clean energy technologies and services, which are collectively known as sustainable energy. To unleash this potential, the US and other governments need the full cooperation of the sustainable energy industry. This industry knows more than most other about turning energy-related pollution prevention into profits. If engaged, they can help: (1) Identify the economic benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation; (2) Identify barriers to the implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation projects; (3) Develop policies and measures to overcome these barriers; and (4) Implement greenhouse gas mitigation projects. 7 refs.

  13. Peformance Tuning and Evaluation of a Parallel Community Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, J.B.; Worley, P.H.; Hammond, S.

    1999-11-13

    The Parallel Community Climate Model (PCCM) is a message-passing parallelization of version 2.1 of the Community Climate Model (CCM) developed by researchers at Argonne and Oak Ridge National Laboratories and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the early to mid 1990s. In preparation for use in the Department of Energy's Parallel Climate Model (PCM), PCCM has recently been updated with new physics routines from version 3.2 of the CCM, improvements to the parallel implementation, and ports to the SGIKray Research T3E and Origin 2000. We describe our experience in porting and tuning PCCM on these new platforms, evaluating the performance of different parallel algorithm options and comparing performance between the T3E and Origin 2000.

  14. Reduction of Climate Gases by Energy Efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moe, N.

    1998-01-01

    Carbon dioxide cannot be depolluted in practice. However, there are two areas where measures can be taken to avoid CO 2 emissions: 1. Energy-efficiency. 2. Use of sustainable energy sources in energy production. It is characteristic that many measures which are good for the environment are also good from the point of view of cost efficiency, preparedness and employment. This is tru, for instance, of the greater use of biofuels instead of fossil fuels, collective heating systems as opposed to individual ones and economy measures - especially more efficient use of electricity. It is a question of thinking of the system as a whole. Methane is another factor which contributes to the greenhouse effect. Methane emissions can also be avoided, or reduced, by system-thinking. System-thinking is, for instance, not ro deposit combustible waste but to use it as an energy source. And why not produce electricity by using methane from existing landfill sites. Electrical energy is the most useful form of energy. Therefore, electricity should not, as a principal rule, be used for heating, or as process energy. The fact that energy-efficiency and emission of greenhouse gases are interrelated is shown in the following two examples. 1. Only about 25% of the energy content in extracted coal will reach the consumers as electricity when the production takes place in an ordinary, coal-fires condensing power station. 2. When district heating (room-heating and hot water) is produced in a modern heat-production plant by flue-gas condensation, about 90% of the energy is utilised for heating purposes. To obtain an overall picture of the amount of energy used for a purpose, e.g. heating or electricity, you must view the entire process from extraction to final use. Such a picture can show the energy efficiency and what losses arise. Efficiency measures can reduce the energy bill. They can also reduce pollution, greenhouse gases among other things. Examples will be given in this paper of energy

  15. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  16. Nuclear Energy's Role in Mitigating Climate Change and Air Pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Energy experts expect energy demand to rise dramatically in the 21st century, especially in developing countries, where today, over one billion people have no access to modern energy services. Meeting global energy demand will require a 75% expansion in primary energy supply by 2050. If no steps are taken to reduce emissions, the energy-related CO 2 emissions would nearly double in the same period. The increased levels of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere could raise average global temperatures 3 o C or more above pre-industrial levels, which may trigger the dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, which the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change seeks to prevent.

  17. Indoor climate in renovated and energy retrofitted social housing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Henrik Nellemose; Jensen, Ole Michael

    2016-01-01

    The need for energy retrofitting of the Danish single-family houses is massive, especially for the high proportion of single-family houses built in the 1960s and 1970s. But even though the potential benefits are many, only few families embark on a major energy retrofit. There may be many reasons...... for this. An obvious one may be limited knowledge of non-energy benefits, e.g. in relation to the indoor climate. The objective of this study was to explain this limited effort to save energy by identifying barriers and incentives among house owners in relation to energy retrofitting of one’s own house....... Moreover, it was investigated among house owners, who had carried out energy retrofitting, whether a number of factors, including the perceived indoor climate, became better or worse after retrofitting. A questionnaire survey was carried out among 1,990 house owners in a municipality north of Copenhagen...

  18. Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Werf, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

  19. Modeling Innovations Advance Wind Energy Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    In 1981, Glenn Research Center scientist Dr. Larry Viterna developed a model that predicted certain elements of wind turbine performance with far greater accuracy than previous methods. The model was met with derision from others in the wind energy industry, but years later, Viterna discovered it had become the most widely used method of its kind, enabling significant wind energy technologies-like the fixed pitch turbines produced by manufacturers like Aerostar Inc. of Westport, Massachusetts-that are providing sustainable, climate friendly energy sources today.

  20. Nuclear energy and climate change; Energia nuclear y cambio climatico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Jimenez, A.

    2002-07-01

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO{sub 2} emissions. (Author)

  1. Energy and climate. A vision of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brand, Hans; Hosemann, Gerhard; Riedle, Klaus

    2013-01-01

    This book contains five lectures from the symposium of 8 November 2012. The topics and speakers were: 1. The energy turnaround in Germany - Chances and risks (DIETHARD MAGER); 2. The power supply from renewable sources and their constraints (GERHARD HEROLD); 3. What really contributes CO 2 to global warming? (HERMANN HARDE); 4. Sun and greenhouse gas - causes of climate change (FRITZ VAHRENHOLT); 5. The hydrocarbon-cycle management - secure energy and resource supply from renewable energy sources (DOMINIK ROHRMUS). [de

  2. Risk benefits of climate-friendly energy supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P.

    2003-01-01

    One of the central goals of sustainable development is the reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This is needed in order to prevent the anticipated climate change, and the potentially serious consequences for human beings and the environment. Energy supply systems constitute the dominant contributors to GHG emissions. This paper examines three illustrative emission scenarios for world-wide energy supply in the 21 st Century. These scenarios, including the associated GHG and major pollutant emissions, were chosen from a set established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using the emissions as a starting point, and based on recent findings concerning the impact on the environment and the financial costs resulting from global climate change on the one hand, and regional air pollution on the other hand, the present work provides estimates of the scenario-dependent, world-wide cumulative damage. The fossil-intensive reference scenario leads to overall damages which correspond to very substantial losses in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and which widely exceed the damages caused by the scenarios reflecting climate-friendly policies. Generally, the somewhat speculative estimates of the GHG-specific damages are much less significant than damages to human health and the environment caused by the major air pollutants. This means that the secondary benefits of climate-friendly, energy-supply options, i.e. those which avoid the impacts due to air pollution, alone justify strategies protecting the climate. (author)

  3. Modelling interactions of carbon dioxide, forests, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxmoore, R.J.; Baldocchi, D.D.

    1994-01-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising and forests and climate is changing exclamation point This combination of fact and premise may be evaluated at a range of temporal and spatial scales with the aid of computer simulators describing the interrelationships between forest vegetation, litter and soil characteristics, and appropriate meteorological variables. Some insights on the effects of climate on the transfers of carbon and the converse effect of carbon transfer on climate are discussed as a basis for assessing the significance of feedbacks between vegetation and climate under conditions of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Three main classes of forest models are reviewed. These are physiologically-based models, forest succession simulators based on the JABOWA model, and ecosystem-carbon budget models that use compartment transfer rates with empirically estimated coefficients. Some regression modeling approaches are also outlined. Energy budget models applied to forests and grasslands are also reviewed. This review presents examples of forest models; a comprehensive discussion of all available models is not undertaken

  4. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  5. Renewable and low-carbon energies as mitigation options of climate change for China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urban, F.; Benders, R. M. J.; Moll, H. C.

    This article discusses how renewable and low-carbon energies can serve as mitigation options of climate change in China's power sector. Our study is based on scenarios developed in PowerPlan, a bottom-up model simulating a countries' power sector and its emissions. We first adjusted the model to

  6. Renewable Energy Deployment as Climate Change Mitigation in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olotu Yahaya

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The scientific evidence of climate change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions which causes ozone layer depletion is becoming increasingly obvious and clear. Findings revealed that energy from the fossil fuel is the major source of greenhouse emission which destroys the environment and makes it unhealthy for living beings. In Nigeria, conventional energy (oil and gas with gas flaring has the highest percentage of 52% and liquid fuel of 32% of carbon dioxide (CO2 respectively. This sector contributes revenue of over 70% to Nigeria’s economy and generates an average total 21.8% of greenhouse gas emission. In Nigeria, there is a much more potential for share renewables with 15.4% of total energy production and 8.6 % of energy consumption. In reality with global environmental concern, Nigeria’s carbon dioxide emissions have increased with energy production and consumption. The Integrated Renewable Energy Master Plan of 2008 projects a 26.7% renewable energy contribution to the Nigeria’s energy use and this is expected to reduce CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions at 38% by2025. Nigeria has not been playing significant role by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper highlights Nigeria’s climate change situation and penetration requirements for various renewable energy deployments as mitigating instrument for climate change towards healthy and productive environment.

  7. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  8. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  9. Municipal energy and climate policy in a liberalized energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, H.

    2001-05-01

    Due to the ongoing process of liberalisation, Dutch municipal energy policy is undergoing significant changes. The probable privatisation of energy companies, the change from what used to be 'their' local energy company to what will become an energy company, results in a need for local administrations to build up energy knowledge, end-use information and financial resources that 'their' energy companies used to share but, because of operating in a competitive market, are now more reluctant to do so. On the other hand offers privatisation and the selling of shares the possibility for some local governments to collect a significant sum of money which can be addressed to energy policy. This process of growing responsibility of local administrations for their own energy policy coincides with the structural change of the nature of the energy supply in the Netherlands. The change towards a more decentralised energy supply results in more energy systems (e.g. PV and wind) coming under the influence of local regulations. Municipal governments will have to act more like actors in a complex policy network, playing different roles at different times in different situations, often stimulating and regulating at the same time. The growing popularity of platforms like energy agencies, bringing together parties like the local government, energy companies and commercial- and housing associations are examples hereof. In this report, another new role for local governments resulting from the liberalisation process is highlighted: the role of energy consumer. It is estimated that the aggregated electricity demand resulting from activities under direct municipal responsibility (e.g. municipal dwellings, traffic lights, public lighting) amounts to a fairly large share of the market. Due to the public interests vested in the local administrations, it is expected that an important part of this demand is demand for green electricity. Also, local governments can use the energy markets to act

  10. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2013-08-01

    A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

  11. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  12. Database of Low-e Storm Window Energy Performance across U.S. Climate Zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Culp, Thomas D.; Cort, Katherine A.

    2014-09-04

    This is an update of a report that describes process, assumptions, and modeling results produced Create a Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows. The scope of the overall effort is to develop a database of energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN model calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by cliamte zone.

  13. 40% Whole-House Energy Savings in the Hot-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2011-09-01

    This guide book is a resource to help builders design and construct highly energy-efficient homes, while addressing building durability, indoor air quality, and occupant health, safety, and comfort. With the measures described in this guide, builders in the hot-humid climate can build homes that achieve whole house energy savings of 40% over the Building America benchmark (the 1993 Model Energy Code) with no added overall costs for consumers.

  14. 40% Whole-House Energy Savings in the Mixed-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baechler, Michael C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gilbride, T. L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hefty, M. G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cole, P. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Adams, K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Butner, R. S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ortiz, S. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Love, Pat M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2011-09-01

    This guide book is a resource to help builders design and construct highly energy-efficient homes, while addressing building durability, indoor air quality, and occupant health, safety, and comfort. With the measures described in this guide, builders in the mixed-humid climate can build homes that achieve whole house energy savings of 40% over the Building America benchmark (the 1993 Model Energy Code) with no added overall costs for consumers.

  15. Climate, air and energy - Issue 2014. Key figures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    After having recalled international objectives (Kyoto protocol), European objectives (directives related to energy efficiency and renewable energies, greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation, air quality, wastes) and French national (plans, laws) and sector-based objectives (for buildings, transports, agriculture, renewable energies, industry, office building and local communities, air quality), this publication presents and comments numerous tables and graphs of data and indicators (and of their evolution) regarding energy consumptions and intensities (primary and final energy), greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, emissions of pollutants and air quality in France and in European countries, but also the implementation of various plans and tools (Agenda 21 for example), the creation of specific public bodies, jobs and markets related to renewable energies in France. The other chapters propose detailed data related to energy consumption or production, energy efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, and so on for different sectors: housing, tertiary sector, transport, industry, agriculture and forest, renewable energies and heat networks, wastes, individuals

  16. Report of a Policy Forum: Weather, Climate, and Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-07-01

    The report of a policy forum on Weather, Climate, and Energy presents findings and recommendations that, if implemented, could position the energy sector, the providers of weather and climate science and services, and energy consumers to mange more cooperatively and effectively the production, distribution, and consumption of electrical power and fossil fuels. Recent U.S. experience with a series of energy shortages encouraged the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program to join with the University of Oklahoma in the development of a forum to address the issues connected with responding to those shortages. Nearly 100 representatives from the public, private, and academic portions of the energy production sector, the meteorological community, political and corporate leaders, weather risk management analysts, and policy makers met on October 16-17, 2001 to discuss these policy issues.

  17. The 2030 framework for climate and energy policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woersdoerfer, Mechthild [Directorate-General for Energy European Commission, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-05-01

    In the light of experiences and lessons learnt from current energy and climate policies and the changing economic and energy market context, the Commission proposed a new framework for climate and energy policies for the period until 2030 on which the European Council reached an agreement on October 24, 2014. The framework is structured around four headline targets: a binding EU level target for domestic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 40 % compared to 1990 levels; a binding EU level target for the share of renewable energy of at least 27 %; an indicative EU level target for energy efficiency improvements of at least 27 % and an objective for electricity interconnections of 15 % in 2030.

  18. The 2030 framework for climate and energy policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woersdoerfer, Mechthild

    2015-01-01

    In the light of experiences and lessons learnt from current energy and climate policies and the changing economic and energy market context, the Commission proposed a new framework for climate and energy policies for the period until 2030 on which the European Council reached an agreement on October 24, 2014. The framework is structured around four headline targets: a binding EU level target for domestic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 40 % compared to 1990 levels; a binding EU level target for the share of renewable energy of at least 27 %; an indicative EU level target for energy efficiency improvements of at least 27 % and an objective for electricity interconnections of 15 % in 2030.

  19. Oscillations in a simple climate-vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rombouts, J.; Ghil, M.

    2015-05-01

    We formulate and analyze a simple dynamical systems model for climate-vegetation interaction. The planet we consider consists of a large ocean and a land surface on which vegetation can grow. The temperature affects vegetation growth on land and the amount of sea ice on the ocean. Conversely, vegetation and sea ice change the albedo of the planet, which in turn changes its energy balance and hence the temperature evolution. Our highly idealized, conceptual model is governed by two nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations, one for global temperature, the other for vegetation cover. The model exhibits either bistability between a vegetated and a desert state or oscillatory behavior. The oscillations arise through a Hopf bifurcation off the vegetated state, when the death rate of vegetation is low enough. These oscillations are anharmonic and exhibit a sawtooth shape that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of the sharp deglaciations of the Quaternary. Our model's behavior can be compared, on the one hand, with the bistability of even simpler, Daisyworld-style climate-vegetation models. On the other hand, it can be integrated into the hierarchy of models trying to simulate and explain oscillatory behavior in the climate system. Rigorous mathematical results are obtained that link the nature of the feedbacks with the nature and the stability of the solutions. The relevance of model results to climate variability on various timescales is discussed.

  20. The energy report - Energy-climate preservation - 100% Renewable energy by 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singer, Stephan; Denruyter, Jean-Philippe; Jeffries, Barney; Gibbons, Owen; Hendrix, Ellen; Hiller, Martin; McLellan, Richard; Pols, Donald; Allott, Keith; Anderson, Jason; Baker, Bryn; Battle, Jessica; Blom, Esther; Caught, Kellie; Clough, Kirsty; Chatterjee, Keya; Duveau, Thomas; Elliott, Wendy; Emfel, Magnus; Englum, Lynn; Fabbri, Mariangiola; Geneen, Bart; Gray, Ian; Gritsevich, Inna; Van de Gronden, Johan; Guerraoui, May; Hart, Piers; Hartmann, Joerg; Hofstetter, Patrick; Holland, Richard; Hou, Yanli; Ibrahim, Nora; Kaszewski, Andrea; Kiianmaa, Sampsa; Kokorin, Alexey; Lifeng, Li; Lockley, Pete; Maassen, Paul; Masako, Yosuke; McLaughlin, David; Mathe, Laszlo; McLellan, Elisabeth; Von Mirbach, Martin; Ogorzalek, Kevin; Orr, Stuart; Perrin, Mireille; Pollard, Duncan; Randriambola, Voahirana; Rast, Georg; Roberntz, Peter; Senga, Rafael; Sinha, Shirish; Steindlegger, Gerald; Taylor, Rod; Valencia, Ivan; Vitali, Arianna; Willstedt, Heikki; Woul, Mattias de; Worthington, Richard; Yamagishi, Naoyuki; Boufflers, Jean-Philippe; Gilbert, Olivier; Marsily, Anne de; Graaf, Reinier de; Baird, Laura; Merkeley, Tanner; D'Amico, Federico; Christensen, Vilhelm; McPhee, Amelia

    2011-01-01

    WWF has a vision of a world that is powered by 100 per cent renewable energy sources by the middle of this century. Unless we make this transition, the world is most unlikely to avoid predicted escalating impacts of climate change. But is it possible to achieve 100 per cent renewable energy supplies for everyone on the planet by 2050? WWF called upon the expertise of respected energy consultancy Ecofys to provide an answer to this question. In response, Ecofys has produced a bold and ambitious scenario - which demonstrates that it is technically possible to achieve almost 100 per cent renewable energy sources within the next four decades. The Ecofys scenario raises a number of significant issues and challenges. The Energy Report investigates the most critically important political, economic, environmental and social choices and challenges, and encourages their further debate. How are we going to provide for all of the world's future needs, on energy, food, fibre, water and others, without running into such huge issues as: conflicting demands on land/water availability and use; rising, and in some cases, unsustainable consumption of commodities; nuclear waste; and regionally appropriate and adequate energy mixes? The world needs to seriously consider what will be required to transition to a sustainable energy future, and to find solutions to the dilemmas raised in this report. Answering these challenges - the solutions to the energy needs of current and future generations is one of the most important, challenging and urgent political tasks ahead

  1. Opinion survey on energy and climate in 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Jean-Philippe

    2013-08-01

    This issue comments the results of a survey on the opinion of French people on the reality of climate change (for the whole population and with respect to age), on the opinion of French people on nuclear energy (in relationship with the opinion on climate change, globally in terms of benefit or drawback with evolution of the opinion since 1994), on the feeling of having suffered from the cold during the winter of 2012-2013, on the dwelling temperature in winter, and on the opinion on energy price

  2. Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Kelly E.

    . We show that upon cessation, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside the bounds of 20th century climate variability. We then use an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to further show the sensitivity of these trends to background greenhouse gas emissions, termination year, and climate sensitivity. We find that the rate of warming from cessation of solar radiation management -- of critical importance for ecological and human systems -- is principally controlled by the background greenhouse gas concentrations. It follows that the only way to avoid the risk of an abrupt and dangerous warming that is inherent to the large-scale implementation of solar radiation management is to also strongly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The climate system responds to radiative forcing on a diverse spectrum of timescales, which will affect what goals can be achieved for a given stratospheric aerosol implementation. We next investigate how different rates of stratospheric sulfate aerosol deployment affect what climate impacts can be avoided by simulating two rates of increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations in a fully-coupled global climate model. We find that disparate goals are achieved for different rates of deployment; for a slow ramping of sulfate, land surface temperature trends remain small but sea levels continue to rise for decades, whereas a quick ramp-up of sulfate yields large land surface cooling trends and immediately reduces sea level. However, atmospheric circulation changes also act to create a large-scale subsurface ocean environment around Antarctica that is favorable for increased basal melting of ice sheet outlets, thereby leaving the potential open for increased sea level rise even in the absence of large atmospheric surface warming. We show that instead, when greenhouse gases are abruptly returned to preindustrial levels, circulation anomalies are reversed, and the subsurface ocean environment

  3. Climate information for the wind energy industry in the Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Davis, Melanie; Schmidt, Peter; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    Mediterranean Region as a tool for assessing the impact of changes in climate patterns on the energy output of wind power plants. Subsequently, we will give here a brief overview of these techniques as well as first results related to wind projections for different sites across the Mediterranean Region. We will highlight that regional climate models have a large potential for enhancing the quality of climate projections in the presence of complex orography and in the proximity of coastal areas.

  4. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  5. Building synergies between climate change mitigation and energy poverty alleviation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Tirado Herrero, Sergio

    2012-01-01

    Even though energy poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation are inextricably linked policy goals, they have remained as relatively disconnected fields of research inquiry and policy development. Acknowledging this gap, this paper explores the mainstream academic and policy literatures to provide a taxonomy of interactions and identify synergies and trade-offs between them. The most important trade-off identified is the potential increase in energy poverty levels as a result of strong climate change action if the internalisation of the external costs of carbon emissions is not offset by efficiency gains. The most significant synergy was found in deep energy efficiency in buildings. The paper argues that neither of the two problems – deep reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, and energy poverty eradication – is likely to be solved fully on their own merit, while joining the two policy goals may provide a very solid case for deep efficiency improvements. Thus, the paper calls for a strong integration of these two policy goals (plus other key related benefits like energy security or employment), in order to provide sufficient policy motivation to mobilise a wide-scale implementation of deep energy efficiency standards. - Highlights: ► A taxonomy of interactions between climate change and energy poverty is offered. ► Energy poverty levels may increase as a result of strong climate change action. ► However, strong synergies are offered by deep improvements of energy efficiency. ► Access to modern energy carriers is a key requirement in developing countries. ► Sufficiently solving both problems requires the integration of policy goals.

  6. Energy and Development. A Modelling Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ruijven, B.J.

    2008-01-01

    policies have an important role. For instance, low energy taxes and subsidies in developing countries limit the opportunities to promote alternative energy options. A final issue in this thesis is the impact of the changing development context - depletion of fossil fuels and climate change - on the economic development of low-income regions. We developed a stylized population-economy-energy-climate model (SUSCLIME) in which automated agents can take policy-decisions and develop strategies to cope with resource depletion and climate change. From preliminary model experiments it appears that developing countries are more vulnerable to both resource depletion and climate change. A co-benefit of a long-term focus on avoiding climate change is that it also slows down fossil resource depletion. A short-term focus to reduce impacts from depletion of endogenous fossil resources has probably not much synergy with climate policy because imported fossil energy (or coal) is more attractive than developing alternatives.

  7. Climatization, energy and design in rural housing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aroztegui, J.

    1994-01-01

    The Work analyzes the possibilities to influence in the energy inputs of the air conditioning in the rural housing through architectonic project decisions. It presents a methodology to guide the first project decisions and to evaluate the future of the housing behavior

  8. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2000-06-01

    A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

  9. Identifying misbehaving models using baseline climate variance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-06-01

    The majority of projections made using general circulation models (GCMs) are conducted to help tease out the effects on a region, or on the climate system as a whole, of changing climate dynamics. Sun et al., however, used model runs from 20 different coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs to try to understand a different aspect of climate projections: how bias correction, model selection, and other statistical techniques might affect the estimated outcomes. As a case study, the authors focused on predicting the potential change in precipitation for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a 1-million- square- kilometer area in southeastern Australia that suffered a recent decade of drought that left many wondering about the potential impacts of climate change on this important agricultural region. The authors first compared the precipitation predictions made by the models with 107 years of observations, and they then made bias corrections to adjust the model projections to have the same statistical properties as the observations. They found that while the spread of the projected values was reduced, the average precipitation projection for the end of the 21st century barely changed. Further, the authors determined that interannual variations in precipitation for the MDB could be explained by random chance, where the precipitation in a given year was independent of that in previous years.

  10. Learning About Climate and Atmospheric Models Through Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, D. D.

    2017-12-01

    From the analysis of ensemble variability to improving simulation performance, machine learning algorithms can play a powerful role in understanding the behavior of atmospheric and climate models. To learn about model behavior, we create training and testing data sets through ensemble techniques that sample different model configurations and values of input parameters, and then use supervised machine learning to map the relationships between the inputs and outputs. Following this procedure, we have used support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting and other methods to investigate a variety of atmospheric and climate model phenomena. We have used machine learning to predict simulation crashes, estimate the probability density function of climate sensitivity, optimize simulations of the Madden Julian oscillation, assess the impacts of weather and emissions uncertainty on atmospheric dispersion, and quantify the effects of model resolution changes on precipitation. This presentation highlights recent examples of our applications of machine learning to improve the understanding of climate and atmospheric models. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  11. The climate impact of future energy peat production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagberg, Linus; Holmgren, Kristina

    2008-09-15

    The aim of this study was to estimate total greenhouse gas emissions and climate impact of different peat utilisation scenarios, using a life cycle perspective. This and previous studies show that the climate impact from energy peat utilisation is more complex than just considering the emissions at the combustion stage. There are important emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases that occur on the peatland before, during and after peat harvest. The results show that the climate impact of future peat utilisation can be significantly reduced compared to current utilisation and will be lower than the climate impact resulting from only the combustion phase. This can be achieved by choosing already drained peatlands with high greenhouse gas emissions, using a more efficient production method and by securing a low-emission after-treatment of the cutaway (e.g. afforestation)

  12. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najac, J.

    2008-11-01

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  13. The Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Managing Energy Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown Weiss, Edith

    1982-04-01

    Research and interviews with officials of the United States energy industry and a systems analysis of decision making in a natural gas utility lead to the conclusion that seasonal climate forecasts would only have limited value in fine tuning the management of energy supply, even if the forecasts were more reliable and detailed than at present.On the other hand, reliable forecasts could be useful to state and local governments both as a signal to adopt long-term measures to increase the efficiency of energy use and to initiate short-term measures to reduce energy demand in anticipation of a weather-induced energy crisis.To be useful for these purposes, state governments would need better data on energy demand patterns and available energy supplies, staff competent to interpret climate forecasts, and greater incentive to conserve. The use of seasonal climate forecasts is not likely to be constrained by fear of legal action by those claiming to be injured by a possible incorrect forecast.

  14. Climate-induced hotspots in surface energy fluxes from 1948 to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng Li; Liu Shuhua; Liu Heping

    2010-01-01

    Understanding how land surfaces respond to climate change requires knowledge of land-surface processes, which control the degree to which interannual variability and mean trends in climatic variables affect the surface energy budget. We use the latest version of the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), which is driven by the latest updated hybrid reanalysis-observation atmospheric forcing dataset constructed by Princeton University, to obtain global distributions of the surface energy budget from 1948 to 2000. We identify climate change hotspots and surface energy flux hotspots from 1948 to 2000. Surface energy flux hotspots, which reflect regions with strong changes in surface energy fluxes, reveal seasonal variations with strong signals in winter, spring, and autumn and weak ones in summer. Locations for surface energy flux hotspots are not, however, fully linked with those for climate change hotspots, suggesting that only in some regions are land surfaces more responsive to climate change in terms of interannual variability and mean trends.

  15. Improving snow albedo processes in WRF/SSiB regional climate model to assess impact of dust and black carbon in snow on surface energy balance and hydrology over western U.S.

    OpenAIRE

    Oaida, CM; Xue, Y; Flanner, MG; Skiles, SMK; De Sales, F; Painter, TH

    2015-01-01

    © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Two important factors that control snow albedo are snow grain growth and presence of light-absorbing impurities (aerosols) in snow. However, current regional climate models do not include such processes in a physically based manner in their land surface models. We improve snow albedo calculations in the Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) land surface model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (R...

  16. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  17. Representation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greeves, C.Z.; Pope, V.D.; Stratton, R.A.; Martin, G.M. [Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are a key element of the winter weather and climate at mid-latitudes. Before projections of climate change are made for these regions, it is necessary to be sure that climate models are able to reproduce the main features of observed storm tracks. The simulated storm tracks are assessed for a variety of Hadley Centre models and are shown to be well modelled on the whole. The atmosphere-only model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core produces generally more realistic storm tracks than the model with the Eulerian dynamical core, provided the horizontal resolution is high enough. The two models respond in different ways to changes in horizontal resolution: the model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core has much reduced frequency and strength of cyclonic features at lower resolution due to reduced transient eddy kinetic energy. The model with Eulerian dynamical core displays much smaller changes in frequency and strength of features with changes in horizontal resolution, but the location of the storm tracks as well as secondary development are sensitive to resolution. Coupling the atmosphere-only model (with semi-Lagrangian dynamical core) to an ocean model seems to affect the storm tracks largely via errors in the tropical representation. For instance a cold SST bias in the Pacific and a lack of ENSO variability lead to large changes in the Pacific storm track. Extratropical SST biases appear to have a more localised effect on the storm tracks. (orig.)

  18. Climate, air and energy - Release 2015 - Key figures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-05-01

    After an indication of some remarkable key figures (general data, data about office building, housing, industries, renewable energies, wastes, transports, agriculture and forests, and households, indication of some French and European objectives for 2020 and 2030), and a table containing indications of some international official texts (Kyoto protocol and its amendment, European directives) and of their content and scope (bio-fuels in transports, energy efficiency, buildings, labelling and eco-design, transports, renewable energies, energy and climate, greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation, air quality, wastes), and national texts (laws, plans) regarding the same issues, this publication presents figures and data under the form of graphs and tables to illustrate their evolution. They are general data on energy consumptions and intensities (data per sector and per country in Europe), markets and jobs related to renewable energies, certificates of energy saving, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, regional data for France. The other chapters present large sets of graphs and tables of relevant data concerning housing buildings, office buildings, transports, industries, agriculture and forests, renewable energies and heat networks, wastes, and households. Generally, these data are presented in terms of evolution since the 1970's or the 1990's. They propose a detailed analytical point of view of the various energy and energy-related issues in these different sectors and fields

  19. Energy supply options for climate change mitigation and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobran, Flavio

    2010-09-15

    Modern society is dependent on fossil fuels for its energy needs, but their combustion is producing emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. If these emissions remain unconstrained they risk of producing significant impacts on humanity and ecosystems. Replacement of fossil fuels with alternative energy sources can stabilize anthropogenic global warming and thus reduce the climate change impacts. The deployment of alternative energy supply technologies should be based on objectives that are consistent with sustainability indicators and incorporate quantitative risk assessment multiattribute utility decision methodologies capable of ascertaining effective future energy supply options.

  20. NGO and industry perspectives on energy and climate change policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hornung, R.

    2002-01-01

    This paper highlighted the clear contradiction between projected business as usual energy development in Canada and its climate change commitments. It was cautioned that these contradictions can only be resolved by actively incorporating climate change considerations into energy policies and by making efforts to promote energy efficiency and investment in renewable energy technologies. Canada's commitments to the Kyoto Protocol seem to be inconsistent with the ongoing policy of exporting greater amounts of oil and gas to the United States. In the short-term, the author advocates the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and supports the debate on how the cost of meeting greenhouse gas commitments should be distributed, and how they can be minimized

  1. The nuclear energy like an option in Mexico before the climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez M, B.; Puente E, F.; Ortiz O, H. B.; Avila P, P.; Flores C, J.

    2014-10-01

    The current energy poverty, the future necessities of energy and the climatic change caused by the global warming, are factors that associates each, manifest with more clarity the unsustainable production way and energy consumption that demands the society in the current life. This work analyzes the nuclear energy generation like an alternative from the environmental view point that ties with the sustainable development and the formulation of energy use models that require the countries at global level. With this purpose were collected and reviewed documented data of the energy resources, current and future energy consumption and the international commitments of Mexico regarding to greenhouse gases reduction. For Mexico two implementation scenarios of nuclear reactors type BWR and A BWR were analyzed, in compliance with the goals and policy development established in the National Strategy of Climatic Change and the National Strategy of Energy; the scenarios were analyzed through the emissions to the air of CO 2 , (main gas of greenhouse effect) which avoids when the energy production is obtained by nuclear reactors instead of consumptions of traditional fuels, such as coal, diesel, natural gas and fuel oil. The obtained results reflect that the avoided emissions contribute from 4.2% until 40% to the national goal that Mexico has committed to the international community through the Convention Marco of the United Nations against the Climatic Change (CMNUCC). These results recommends to the nuclear energy like a sustainable energy solution on specific and current conditions for Mexico. (Author)

  2. High-resolution climate modelling of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wessem, J.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/413533085

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis we have used a high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2.3) to simulate the present-day climate (1979-2014) of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. We have evaluated the model results with several observations, such as in situ surface energy balance (SEB)

  3. A Strategy for American Power: Energy, Climate and National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    For example, Greg Mankiw , Harvard economist and former chair of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors, has proposed phasing in a $1 per...International Energy Barrier By Amy Myers Jaffe 77 Chapter V: Overcoming the Economic Barriers to Climate Change and Energy Security By Jason Furman (lead...Hamilton Project. He previously served in the Clinton administration and at the Council of Economic Advisers, the National Economic Council, and the World

  4. From Climate Change Awareness to Energy Efficient Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Niamir, Leila; Filatova, Tatiana

    2016-01-01

    Understanding and predicting how climate will change, and whether and how a transition to low-carbon economies will develop over the next century is of vital importance. Nowadays there is high competition between countries to achieve a low-carbon economy. They are examining different ways e.g. different energy efficient technologies and low-carbon energy sources, however they believe that human choices and behavioural change has a crucial impact, which is many times discussed in the literatur...

  5. Integrated energy and climate program without nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haller, W.

    2007-01-01

    Under the German EU Council presidency, the European Union adopted an ambitious climate protection program in spring this year which has consequences for the entire energy sector. A fair system of burden sharing is currently being sought on the level of the European Union. However, the German federal government does not wait for that agreement to be reached, but has added to the clearcut EU plans in order to achieve more climate protection. At the closed meeting of the federal cabinet in Meseberg on August 23-24, 2007, the key points of an integrated energy and climate program were adopted. The unprecedented set of measures comprises 30 points. In many cases, legal measures are required for implementation, which implies a heavy workload facing the federal government and parliament. A major step forward is seen in the federal government's intention to preserve the international competitiveness of the producing sector and energy-intensive industries also under changed framework conditions. The imperative guiding principle must be that care should take precedence over speed. European or worldwide solutions must be found for all measures, be it energy efficiency or climate protection, and all countries must be involved because, otherwise, specific measures taken by individual states will be ineffective. (orig.)

  6. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  7. Teaching about Climate Change and Energy with Online Materials and Workshops from On the Cutting Edge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, K. B.; Manduca, C. A.; Myers, J. D.; Loxsom, F.

    2009-12-01

    -playing, inquiry-based learning via online data sets, and the use of computer models. The website houses course descriptions and syllabi for both introductory-level and upper-level climate courses contributed by faculty. Collections of climate visualizations and recommended references help faculty navigate to online materials that are best suited for their classroom. The On the Cutting Edge program features a biennial workshop series about teaching climate change, held in conjunction with the American Quaternary Association. Presentations, teaching ideas and references from the 2006 and 2008 workshops are available, along with applications for the upcoming workshop to be held in August 2010. All of these materials can be found at http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/energy and http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/climatechange. Faculty are encouraged to submit their own teaching materials to the web collections via on-line forms for submitting information and uploading files.

  8. Modeling the effect of climate change on the indoor climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.

    2010-01-01

    Within the new EU project ‘Climate for Culture’ researchers are investigating climate change impacts on UNESCO World Heritage Sites. Simulation results are expected to give information on the possible impact of climate change on the built cultural heritage and its indoor environment. This paper

  9. Energy security of supply under EU climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenenberg, H.; Wetzelaer, B.J.H.W.

    2006-12-01

    The implications of various climate policies for the security of supply in the EU-25 were investigated. The security of supply was quantified using the Supply/Demand (S/D) Index. This index aggregates quantitative information on a country's energy system into one single figure. It takes a value between 0 and 100, with higher values indicating a more secure energy system. The S/D Index was calculated for the year 2020 based on the information in a series of policy scenarios, including a baseline (S/D Index 50.7), an energy efficiency scenario (53.8), two renewable energy scenarios (52.6 and 53.3) and two scenarios with combined policies (55.9 and 55.6).The S/D Index proved a useful indicator for assessing the implications of climate policies for the security of supply. As climate policies become more stringent, CO2 index fall, and the S/D index increases. The magnitude of the changes in the two indices is not always similar however. Major falls in CO2 indices in the order of 20% for two scenarios with combined energy efficiency and renewable energy polices lead to less noteworthy improvements in the associated S/D indices. Nevertheless, this combination of policies leads to the greatest improvements in the security of supply

  10. Coping with climate change and China's wind energy sustainable development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De-Xin He

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause of today's climate change. To address this problem, the world is in an era of new round energy transformation, and the existing energy structure is being reformed. In this paper, according to the Chinese government's action plan for coping with climate change, the China's wind energy sustainable development goals and development route are discussed, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Wind energy is currently a kind of important renewable energy with matured technology which can be scale-up developed and put into commercial application, and in this transformation, wind energy will play a key role with other non-fossil energy sources. The development and utilization of wind energy is a systematic project, which needs to be solved from the aspects of policy, technology and management. At present, China is in the stage of transferring from “large wind power country” to “strong wind power country”, opportunities and challenges coexist, and the advantages of China's socialist system could be fully used, which can concentrate power to do big things and make contribution in the process of realizing global energy transformation.

  11. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  12. China's strategy for energy development and climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Jiankun; Yu Zhiwei; Zhang Da

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, China has made great efforts in energy saving and carbon emission reduction by pushing forward domestic sustainable development along with global climate change mitigation. The efforts have paid off with a dramatic decrease in carbon intensity. Nevertheless, China is still confronted with tough challenges in emission control due to the fast pace of industrialization, large total historical emission and high growth rate of emissions. Therefore, China should give priority to energy saving by improving energy efficiency and sectoral structure adjustment and upgrade, and develop sustainable and renewable energy to optimize energy mix and its carbon content. China should continue to regard significant reduction of energy intensity and carbon intensity as the main objective in the near future, strive to achieve peak emissions around 2030, and realize a relatively sharp emissions reduction by 2050 in order to address climate change to meet the goal of making the warming less than 2°. During the 12th Five Year Plan (FYP), China will further strengthen measures to control the amount of energy consumption, establish a statistics, accounting and evaluation system of carbon emissions, and promote a market-based carbon emissions trading mechanism to facilitate the low-carbon transformation of China's economy. - Highlights: ► This paper studies China's strategy for energy development and climate change mitigation. ► We suggest that China should focus on reducing the energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP, and optimization of energy mix in the near term. ► In the long term, China should achieve the peak emission around 2030, and realize a relative sharp emission reduction by 2050. ► The paper also concludes some important measures which China should take during the 12th Five-Year-Plan (2011–2015).

  13. System's flips in climate-related energy (CRE) systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Engeland, Kolbjørn; François, Baptiste; Renard, Benjamin

    2014-05-01

    Several modern environmental questions invite to explore the complex relationships between natural phenomena and human behaviour at a range of space and time scales. This usually involves a number of cause-effect (causal) relationships, linking actions and events. In lay terms, 'effect' can be defined as 'what happened' and 'cause', 'why something happened.' In a changing world or merely moving from one scale to another, shifts in perspective are expected, bringing some phenomena into the foreground and putting others to the background. Systems can thus flip from one set of causal structures to another in response to environmental perturbations and human innovations or behaviors, for instance, as space-time signatures are modified. The identification of these flips helps in better understanding and predicting how societies and stakeholders react to a shift in perspective. In this study, our motivation is to investigate possible consequences of the shift to a low carbon economy in terms of socio-technico systems' flips. The focus is on the regional production of Climate-Related Energy (CRE) (hydro-, wind- and solar-power). We search for information on historic shifts that may help defining the forcing conditions of abrupt changes and extreme situations. We identify and present a series of examples in which we try to distinguish the various tipping points, thresholds, breakpoints and regime shifts that are characteristic of complex systems in the CRE production domain. We expect that with these examples our comprehension of the question will be enriched, providing us the elements needed to better validate modeling attempts, to predict and manage flips of complex CRE production systems. The work presented is part of the FP7 project COMPLEX (Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy; http://www.complex.ac.uk/).

  14. National Energy Outlook Modelling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Volkers, C.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

    2013-12-15

    For over 20 years, the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) has been developing the National Energy Outlook Modelling System (NEOMS) for Energy projections and policy evaluations. NEOMS enables 12 energy models of ECN to exchange data and produce consistent and detailed results.

  15. A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

    2014-01-01

    We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

  16. Understanding and Improving Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for modeling Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Clarke, J.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.; Dubovikov, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate is vital. Earth is only habitable due to the atmosphere&oceans' distribution of energy. Our Greenhouse Gas emissions shift overall the balance between absorbed and emitted radiation causing Global Warming. How much of these emissions are stored in the ocean vs. entering the atmosphere to cause warming and how the extra heat is distributed depends on atmosphere&ocean dynamics, which we must understand to know risks of both progressive Climate Change and Climate Variability which affect us all in many ways including extreme weather, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption. Citizens must be informed to make decisions such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to avert catastrophe. Simulations of Climate Change provide needed knowledge but in turn need reliable parameterizations of key physical processes, including ocean mixing, which greatly impacts transport&storage of heat and dissolved CO2. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS seeks to use physical theory to improve parameterizations of ocean mixing, including smallscale convective, shear driven, double diffusive, internal wave and tidal driven vertical mixing, as well as mixing by submesoscale eddies, and lateral mixing along isopycnals by mesoscale eddies. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. We write our own programs in MATLAB and FORTRAN to visualize and process output of ocean simulations including producing statistics to help judge impacts of different parameterizations on fidelity in reproducing realistic temperatures&salinities, diffusivities and turbulent power. The results can help upgrade the parameterizations. Students are introduced to complex system modeling and gain deeper appreciation of climate science and programming skills, while furthering climate science. We are incorporating climate projects into the Medgar Evers college curriculum. The PI is both a member of the turbulence group at

  17. 'Pivotal politics' in US energy and climate legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skodvin, Tora

    2010-01-01

    In the 110th Congress (2007-2008) legislation related to climate change was introduced at a faster pace than in any previous Congress, yet it did not result in a corresponding increase in enacted climate-related laws. A pertinent example of the political infeasibility of climate policy change in the 110th Congress is the case of tax credit extensions for production of renewable energy. While this issue in itself was uncontroversial, the extensions were only adopted in the 11th hour, after innumerable failed attempts. With an analytical point of departure in Krehbiel's theory of pivotal politics, this paper seeks to identify pivotal legislators in the case of the tax credit extensions and discusses how changes in the composition of pivotal legislators in the 111th Congress (2009-2010) may impact the prospects of moving climate legislation more generally. The analysis indicates that a majority of the legislative pivots in the case of tax credit extensions were Republican senators representing coal-producing states. In the case of climate change, however, the regional dimension is likely to be more significant for Democratic voting behaviour. Thus, the opportunity space for climate legislation in the 111th Congress remains narrow even with a reinforced Democratic majority in Congress.

  18. Design Optimization of a Small-Scale Polygeneration Energy System in Different Climate Zones in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Ghaem Sigarchian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Design and performance of polygeneration energy systems are highly influenced by several variables, including the climate zone, which can affect the load profile as well as the availability of renewable energy sources. To investigate the effects, in this study, the design of a polygeneration system for identical residential buildings that are located in three different climate zones in Iran has been investigated. To perform the study, a model has previously developed by the author is used. The performance of the polygeneration system in terms of energy, economy and environment were compared to each other. The results show significant energetic and environmental benefits of the implementation of polygeneration systems in Iran, especially in the building that is located in a hot climate, with a high cooling demand and a low heating demand. Optimal polygeneration system for an identical building has achieved a 27% carbon dioxide emission reduction in the cold climate, while this value is around 41% in the hot climate. However, when considering the price of electricity and gas in the current energy market in Iran, none of the systems are feasible and financial support mechanisms or other incentives are required to promote the application of decentralized polygeneration energy systems.

  19. Climate Modeling Computing Needs Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petraska, K. E.; McCabe, J. D.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses early findings of an assessment of computing needs for NASA science, engineering and flight communities. The purpose of this assessment is to document a comprehensive set of computing needs that will allow us to better evaluate whether our computing assets are adequately structured to meet evolving demand. The early results are interesting, already pointing out improvements we can make today to get more out of the computing capacity we have, as well as potential game changing innovations for the future in how we apply information technology to science computing. Our objective is to learn how to leverage our resources in the best way possible to do more science for less money. Our approach in this assessment is threefold: Development of use case studies for science workflows; Creating a taxonomy and structure for describing science computing requirements; and characterizing agency computing, analysis, and visualization resources. As projects evolve, science data sets increase in a number of ways: in size, scope, timelines, complexity, and fidelity. Generating, processing, moving, and analyzing these data sets places distinct and discernable requirements on underlying computing, analysis, storage, and visualization systems. The initial focus group for this assessment is the Earth Science modeling community within NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD). As the assessment evolves, this focus will expand to other science communities across the agency. We will discuss our use cases, our framework for requirements and our characterizations, as well as our interview process, what we learned and how we plan to improve our materials after using them in the first round of interviews in the Earth Science Modeling community. We will describe our plans for how to expand this assessment, first into the Earth Science data analysis and remote sensing communities, and then throughout the full community of science, engineering and flight at NASA.

  20. The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

    2004-06-01

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

  1. Energy savings in drastic climate change policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isoard, Stephane; Wiesenthal, Tobias

    2005-01-01

    This paper reports a climate change policy scenario compatible with long-term sustainable objectives set at EU level (6th Environment Action Plan). By setting ambitious targets for GHG emissions reduction by 2030, this normative scenario relies on market-based instruments and flexible mechanisms. The integrated policy that is simulated (i.e. addressing energy, transport, agriculture and environmental impacts) constitutes a key outlook for the next 5-year report of the European Environment Agency (EEA). This scenario highlights what it would take to drastically curb EU GHG emissions and how much it might cost. The findings show that such a 'deep reduction' climate policy could work as a powerful catalyst for (1) substantial energy savings, and (2) promoting sustainable energy systems in the long term. The implications of this policy lever on the energy system are many-fold indeed, e.g. a substantial limitation of total energy demand or significant shifts towards energy and environment-friendly technologies on the supply side. Clear and transparent price signals, which are associated with market-based instruments, appear to be a key factor ensuring sufficient visibility for capital investment in energy efficient and environment-friendly options. Finally it is suggested that market-based policy options, which are prone to lead to win-win situations and are of particular interest from an integrated policy-making perspective, would also significantly benefit from an enhanced energy policy framework

  2. Impacts of Climate Change and Land use Changes on Land Surface Radiation and Energy Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land surface radiation and energy budgets are critical to address a variety of scientific and application issues related to climate trends, weather predictions, hydrologic and biogeophysical modeling, and the monitoring of ecosystem health and agricultural crops. This is an introductory paper to t...

  3. Hydrogen from nuclear energy and the impact on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.B.; Miller, A.I.; Poehnell, T.G.

    2001-01-01

    The two major candidates for hydrogen production include nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. However, hydrogen produced by steam reforming of natural gas offers little advantage in total cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over hybrid internal combustion engine (ICE) technology. Only nuclear power offers the possibility of cutting GHG emissions significantly and to economically provide electricity for traditional applications and by producing hydrogen for its widespread use in the transportation sector. Using nuclear energy to produce hydrogen for transportation fuel, doubles or triples nuclear's capacity to reduce GHG emissions. An analysis at the Atomic Energy of Canada shows that a combination of hydrogen fuel and nuclear energy can stabilize GHG emissions and climate change for a wide range of the latest scenarios presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The technology for replacing hydrocarbon fuels with non-polluting hydrogen exists with nuclear power, electrolysis and fuel cells, using electric power grids for distribution. It was emphasized that a move toward total emissions-free transportation will be a move towards solving the negative effects of climate change. This paper illustrated the trends between global economic and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Low carbon dioxide emission energy alternatives were discussed along with the sources of hydrogen and the full cycle assessment results in reduced emissions. It was shown that deploying 20 CANDU NPPs (of 690 MW (e) net each) would fuel 13 million vehicles with the effect of levelling of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation between 2020 to 2030. 13 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  4. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ROTH

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Through sustainable development the needs of the current generation are fulfilled without jeopardizing the opportunities of future generations. The concept takes into account economic, social and environmental considerations. It has a wide range of applications from natural resources to population growth and biodiversity. One of its most important themes is energy. In this area, sustainable development relates with resource availability and green house gases emissions. Also it takes into account the needs of people without access to energy, and their legitimate quest for development. For the European Union, sustainable development represents an overarching objective. The present article analyzes the concept from a theoretical perspective, contrasting its strong points and weaknesses. It highlights the relation between sustainable development, energetic resources and climate change. The EU policies results in the field of energy are analyzed from the perspective of resources, energetic dependency and climate change efforts.

  5. Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy

  6. Resource rents: The effects of energy taxes and quantity instruments for climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenack, Klaus; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Kalkuhl, Matthias

    2012-01-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions correspond to fossil resource use. When considering this supply side of climate protection, crucial questions come to fore. It seems likely that owners of fossil resources would object to emission reductions. Moreover, policy instruments such as taxes may not be effective at all: it seems individually rational to leave no fossil resources unused. In this context, it can be expected that economic sectors will react strategically to climate policy, aiming at a re-distribution of rents. To address these questions, we investigate the effectiveness, efficiency, and resource rents for energy taxes, resource taxes, and quantity rationing of emissions. The analysis is based on a game theoretic growth model with explicit factor markets and policy instruments. Market equilibrium depends on a government that acts as a Stackelberg leader with a climate protection goal. We find that resource taxes and quantity rationing achieve this objective efficiently, energy taxation is only second-best. The use of quantity rationing to achieve climate protection generates substantial rents for resource owners. - Highlights: ► Resource taxes and quantity rationing (carbon budgets) are efficient. ► Carbon budgets increase resource rents, while taxes decrease rents. ► Resource owners may support climate protection. ► Climate protection introduces a climate rent.

  7. A Statistical Model for Energy Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjaneh Issapour

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A promising approach to improve scientific literacy in regards to global warming and climate change is using a simulation as part of a science education course. The simulation needs to employ scientific analysis of actual data from internationally accepted and reputable databases to demonstrate the reality of the current climate change situation. One of the most important criteria for using a simulation in a science education course is the fidelity of the model. The realism of the events and consequences modeled in the simulation is significant as well. Therefore, all underlying equations and algorithms used in the simulation must have real-world scientific basis. The "Energy Choices" simulation is one such simulation. The focus of this paper is the development of a mathematical model for "Energy Intensity" as a part of the overall system dynamics in "Energy Choices" simulation. This model will define the "Energy Intensity" as a function of other independent variables that can be manipulated by users of the simulation. The relationship discovered by this research will be applied to an algorithm in the "Energy Choices" simulation.

  8. Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

    1998-03-01

    Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

  9. A characteristics of East Asian climate using high-resolution regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yhang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate research, particularly application studies for water, agriculture, forestry, fishery and energy management require fine scale multi-decadal information of meteorological, oceanographic and land states. Unfortunately, spatially and temporally homogeneous multi-decadal observations of these variables in high horizontal resolution are non-existent. Some long term surface records of temperature and precipitation exist, but the number of observation is very limited and the measurements are often contaminated by changes in instrumentation over time. Some climatologically important variables, such as soil moisture, surface evaporation, and radiation are not even measured over most of East Asia. Reanalysis is one approach to obtaining long term homogeneous analysis of needed variables. However, the horizontal resolution of global reanalysis is of the order of 100 to 200 km, too coarse for many application studies. Regional climate models (RCMs) are able to provide valuable regional finescale information, especially in regions where the climate variables are strongly regulated by the underlying topography and the surface heterogeneity. In this study, we will provide accurately downscaled regional climate over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system [GRIMs; Hong et al. 2013]. A mixed layer model is embedded within the GRIMs in order to improve air-sea interaction. A detailed description of the characteristics of the East Asian summer and winter climate will be presented through the high-resolution numerical simulations. The increase in horizontal resolution is expected to provide the high-quality data that can be used in various application areas such as hydrology or environmental model forcing.

  10. Energy Climate Change - Challenges and Prospects of the EU Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blecic, P.; Bosnjakovic, B.; Frankovic, B.

    2013-01-01

    The paper discusses the main challenges and prospects of EU policy in the field of energy and climate change, without going into technical details, but establishes the main themes of sustainability: economy, environment and new jobs. It describes the foundations and the objectives of the current EU energy policy, and the reasons why the current approach to reduction of greenhouse gases emissions is disappointing. Also, the question is whether EU will achieve the renewable energy goals for the year 2020. The security of energy supply and availability is also considered, especially in view of high dependence on import energy in the today fragmented market. For the way forward to mid-century, the targets to year 2030 are of critical importance. Also, the paper gives an overview of the state of renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions in Croatia.(author)

  11. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

  12. Assessment of air quality and climate co-benefits of decarbonisation of the UK energy system using remote sensing and model simulations - the case for prioritizing end uses in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobral Mourao, Zenaida; Konadu, Daniel Dennis; Damoah, Richard; Li, Pei-hao

    2017-04-01

    The UK has a binding obligation to reduce GHG emission by 80% (based on 1990 levels) by 2050. Meeting this target requires extensive decarbonisation of the UK energy system. Different pathways that achieve this target at the lowest system costs are being explored at different levels of policy and decisions on future energy infrastructure. Whilst benefits of decarbonisation are mainly focused on the impacts on climate change, there are other potential environmental and health impacts such as air-quality. In particular, a decrease in fossil fuel use by directly substituting current systems with low-carbon technologies could lead to significant reductions in the concentrations of SO2, NOX, CO and other atmospheric pollutants. So far, the proposed decarbonisation pathways tend to target the electricity sector first, followed by a transition in transport and heating technologies and use. However, the spatial dimension of where short term changes in the energy sector occur in relation to high density population areas is not taken into account when defining the energy transition strategies. This may lead to limited short-term improvements in air quality within urban areas, where use of fossil fuels for heating and transport is the main contribution to overall atmospheric pollutant levels. It is therefore imperative to explore decarbonisation strategies that prioritise transition in sectors of the energy system that produce immediate improvements in air quality in key regions of the UK. This study aims to use a combination of Remote Sensing observations and atmospheric chemistry/transport modelling approaches to estimate and map the impact on NOx of the traditional approach of decarbonising electricity first compared to a slower transition in the electricity sector, but faster change in the transport sector. This is done by generating a set of alternative energy system pathways with a higher share of zero emissions vehicles in 2030 than the energy system optimization model

  13. Energy Savings of Low-E Storm Windows and Panels across US Climate Zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Culp, Thomas D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cort, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report builds off of previous modeling work related to low-e storm windows used to create a "Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows." This work updates similar studies using new fuel costs and examining the separate contributions of reduced air leakage and reduced coefficients of overall heat transfer and solar heat gain. In this report we examine the energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates, excluding the impact from infiltration reductions, which tend to vary using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN model calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by climate zone.

  14. Warming impact on energy use of HVAC system in buildings of different thermal qualities and in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharseh, Mohamad; Altorkmany, Lobna; Al-Khawaj, Mohammed; Hassani, Ferri

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Improving TQBE reduces heating load, while it might increase cooling load. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC varies from one climate to another. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC depends on building’s thermal quality. • In mild climate, warming does not have a significant impact on energy use of HVAC. - Abstract: In order to combat climate change, energy use in the building must be further reduced. Heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in residential buildings account for considerable fraction of global energy consumption. The potential contribution the domestic sector can make in reducing energy consumption is recognized worldwide. The driving energy of HVACs depends on the thermal quality of the building envelope (TQBE) and outside temperature. Definitely, building regulations are changing with the time toward reduce the thermal loads of buildings. However, most of the existing residential buildings were built to lower TQBE. For instant, 72% of residential dwellings in the 15-EU were built before 1972. To investigate the impact of warming on driving energy of HVACs of a residential building a computer model was developed. Three climate categories/cities were considered, i.e. Stockholm (cold), Istanbul (mild), and Doha (hot). In each city, two buildings were modeled: one was assumed to be built according to the current local buildings regulations (standard TQBE), while the anther was built to lower TQBE. The simulations were run for present and future (in 2050) outdoor designing conditions. The calculations show that the impact of the warming on annual driving energy of HVACs (reduction or increase) depends very much on the climate category and on the TQBE. Based on the climate and TQBE, the change in annual HVACs energy varies from −7.4% (in cold climate) to 12.7% (in hot climate). In mild climate, it was shown that the warming does not have significant impact on annual HVACs energy. Improving the TQBE can

  15. Energy models: methods and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reuter, A [Division of Energy Management and Planning, Verbundplan, Klagenfurt (Austria); Kuehner, R [IER Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart (Germany); Wohlgemuth, N [Department of Economy, University of Klagenfurt, Klagenfurt (Austria)

    1997-12-31

    Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of `energy models`, computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning. 2 figs., 19 refs.

  16. Energy models: methods and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reuter, A.; Kuehner, R.; Wohlgemuth, N.

    1996-01-01

    Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of 'energy models', computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning

  17. Adaptation to climate-induced regional water constraints in the Spanish energy sector: An integrated assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, Zarrar; Linares, Pedro; García-González, Javier

    2016-01-01

    The energy sector depends on water in all phases of its life-cycle, including raw material extraction, power plant cooling, irrigation of biofuel crops and directly in hydropower generation. In the coming decades, several regions of the world are expected to experience a decrease in water resource availability, in part due to climate change. The dependence of the energy sector on water resources calls for an active effort to adapt to the possible scenarios. This paper presents a novel model that addresses the direct impacts of regional and temporal water shortages on energy operation and investment decisions. The paper investigates the costs and benefits of adapting the energy sector to climate-induced water scarcity. The results show that the increase in costs for an energy plan that considers future water stress is relatively small as compared to one which ignores it. A plan which ignores water constraints, however, may lead to significant economic damages when actually exposed to water shortages. The results also highlight the value of the availability of water for the energy sector, which is significantly higher than existing prices. The paper concludes that the potential benefits to be gained by integrating energy and water models can be considerable. - Highlights: • Spatial and temporal water constraints are added to an energy planning model. • Integrated water-energy planning can lead to significant savings in future water-stressed scenarios. • Actual value of water for the energy sector may be much higher than existing prices.

  18. An assessment of climate change impacts on micro-hydropower energy recovery in water supply networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Jennifer; Patil, Sopan; McNabola, Aonghus; Gallagher, John; Coughlan, Paul; Harris, Ian; Packwood, Andrew; Williams, Prysor

    2015-04-01

    treatment works. This analysis is achieved through development of an empirical model utilising historical climatic data in conjunction with low, medium and high emission IPCC climate scenarios using the HADCM3 global climate model across a baseline condition and two further time steps. Results highlight projected alterations in flow rates together with the potential for increases in the frequency and persistence of drought/flooding events and the resulting impacts on future energy recovery. Critical climate change limits are also identified indicating the tolerable ranges within which hydropower recovery is financially viable, thus allowing for more informed decision making across potential sites.

  19. Climate-smart technologies. Integrating renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leal Filho, Walter; Mannke, Franziska; Schulte, Veronika [Hamburg Univ. of Applied Sciences (Germany). Faculty of Life Sciences; Mohee, Romeela; Surroop, Dinesh (eds.) [Mauritius Univ., Reduit (Mauritius). Chemical and Environmental Engineering Dept.

    2013-11-01

    Explores the links between climate change and technologies. Relates to the links between renewable energy and climate change. Documents and promotes a collection of experiences from island nations. Has a strong international focus and value to developing countries. The book addresses the perceived need for a publication with looks at both, climate smart technologies and the integration of renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses. Based on a set of papers submitted as part of the fifth on-line climate conference (CLIMATE 2012) and a major conference on renewable energy on island States held in Mauritius in 2012, the book provides a wealth of information on climate change strategies and the role of smart technologies. The book has been produced in the context of the project ''Small Developing Island Renewable Energy Knowledge and Technology Transfer Network'' (DIREKT), funded by the ACP Science and Technology Programme, an EU programme for cooperation between the European Union and the ACP region.

  20. OpenClimateGIS - A Web Service Providing Climate Model Data in Commonly Used Geospatial Formats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, T. A.; Koziol, B. W.; Rood, R. B.

    2011-12-01

    The goal of the OpenClimateGIS project is to make climate model datasets readily available in commonly used, modern geospatial formats used by GIS software, browser-based mapping tools, and virtual globes.The climate modeling community typically stores climate data in multidimensional gridded formats capable of efficiently storing large volumes of data (such as netCDF, grib) while the geospatial community typically uses flexible vector and raster formats that are capable of storing small volumes of data (relative to the multidimensional gridded formats). OpenClimateGIS seeks to address this difference in data formats by clipping climate data to user-specified vector geometries (i.e. areas of interest) and translating the gridded data on-the-fly into multiple vector formats. The OpenClimateGIS system does not store climate data archives locally, but rather works in conjunction with external climate archives that expose climate data via the OPeNDAP protocol. OpenClimateGIS provides a RESTful API web service for accessing climate data resources via HTTP, allowing a wide range of applications to access the climate data.The OpenClimateGIS system has been developed using open source development practices and the source code is publicly available. The project integrates libraries from several other open source projects (including Django, PostGIS, numpy, Shapely, and netcdf4-python).OpenClimateGIS development is supported by a grant from NOAA's Climate Program Office.

  1. The Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) Model for Energy Service Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houck, Jason; Rickerson, Wilson

    2009-01-01

    Climate change, energy price spikes, and concerns about energy security have reignited interest in state and local efforts to promote end-use energy efficiency, customer-sited renewable energy, and energy conservation. Government agencies and utilities have historically designed and administered such demand-side measures, but innovative…

  2. Supercomputing for weather and climate modelling: convenience or necessity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate modelling require dedicated computer infrastructure in order to generate high-resolution, large ensemble, various models with different configurations, etc. in order to optimise operational forecasts and climate projections. High...

  3. Modelling and observing urban climate in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hove, B.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Heusinkveld, B.; Holtslag, B.; Jacobs, C.; Ter Maat, H.; Elbers, J.; Moors, E.

    2011-06-01

    The main aims of the present study are: (1) to evaluate the performance of two well-known mesoscale NWP (numerical weather prediction) models coupled to a UCM (Urban Canopy Models), and (2) to develop a proper measurement strategy for obtaining meteorological data that can be used in model evaluation studies. We choose the mesoscale models WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), respectively, because the partners in the present project have a large expertise with respect to these models. In addition WRF and RAMS have been successfully used in the meteorology and climate research communities for various purposes, including weather prediction and land-atmosphere interaction research. Recently, state-of-the-art UCM's were embedded within the land surface scheme of the respective models, in order to better represent the exchange of heat, momentum, and water vapour in the urban environment. Key questions addressed here are: What is the general model performance with respect to the urban environment?; How can useful and observational data be obtained that allow sensible validation and further parameterization of the models?; and Can the models be easily modified to simulate the urban climate under Dutch climatic conditions, urban configuration and morphology? Chapter 2 reviews the available Urban Canopy Models; we discuss their theoretical basis, the different representations of the urban environment, the required input and the output. Much of the information was obtained from the Urban Surface Energy Balance: Land Surface Scheme Comparison project (PILPS URBAN, PILPS stands for Project for Inter-comparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes). This project started in March 2008 and was coordinated by the Department of Geography, King's College London. In order to test the performance of our models we participated in this project. Chapter 3 discusses the main results of the first phase of PILPS URBAN. A first

  4. PROPOSALS REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY FOR 2030

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA POPESCU

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate policies are fundamental for the future of our planet, while a truly European energy policy is a key factor for our competitiveness.It`s mandatory a new European energy policy which must accept the real energetic motivations regarding sustainability and greenhouse gas, security of supply and dependence on imports, competitiveness and efficient functioning of the internal energy market. An ambitious target of 40% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases for 2030 is the cornerstone of the most efficient in terms of cost on our path towards a low-carbon dioxide. And at least 27% target for renewable energy is an important signal to investors to provide stability, boost green jobs and support security of supply. Using renewable energy sources (wind, solar and photovoltaic, biomass and biofuels, geothermal and heat pumps undeniably contributes to limiting climate change. In addition, it helps to secure energy supplies and to create and increase employment in Europe, thanks to increasing local energy production and consumption.

  5. Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

    2018-02-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

  6. Energy and Economic Evaluation of Green Roofs for Residential Buildings in Hot-Humid Climates

    OpenAIRE

    Abubakar S. Mahmoud; Muhammad Asif; Mohammad A. Hassanain; Mohammad O. Babsail; Muizz O. Sanni-Anibire

    2017-01-01

    Green roofs may be considered a passive energy saving technology that also offer benefits like environmental friendliness and enhancement of aesthetic and architectural qualities of buildings. This paper examines the energy and economic viability of the green roof technology in the hot humid climate of Saudi Arabia by considering a modern four bedroom residential building in the city of Dhahran as a case study. The base case and green roof modelling of the selected building has been developed...

  7. Computational fluid dynamics simulation of indoor climate in low energy buildings: Computational set up

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Risberg Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper CFD was used for simulation of the indoor climate in a part of a low energy building. The focus of the work was on investigating the computational set up, such as grid size and boundary conditions in order to solve the indoor climate problems in an accurate way. Future work is to model a complete building, with reasonable calculation time and accuracy. A limited number of grid elements and knowledge of boundary settings are therefore essential. An accurate grid edge size of around 0.1 m was enough to predict the climate according to a grid independency study. Different turbulence models were compared with only small differences in the indoor air velocities and temperatures. The models show that radiation between building surfaces has a large impact on the temperature field inside the building, with the largest differences at the floor level. Simplifying the simulations by modelling the radiator as a surface in the outer wall of the room is appropriate for the calculations. The overall indoor climate is finally compared between three different cases for the outdoor air temperature. The results show a good indoor climate for a low energy building all around the year.

  8. From macroeconomics of energy-climate policies to the convergence between climate and development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine

    2016-01-01

    After a brief presentation of her research curriculum, an indication of her various publications and contributions to conferences, the author presents her expertise works and her participation to national and international projects such as: Fairness in the post-2030 climatic regime, Towards an energetic autonomy in island and isolated territories, scenarios under a carbon constraint, comparative analysis of tools of implementation of multilateral agreements on the environment, mechanism for a clean development and domestic measures, Deep De-carbonation Pathway Project or DDPP, EncilowCarb engaging civil society in low carbon scenarios, climate and development or how to re-conciliate environmental constraints and national development policies, Developmental additionnality of the Clean Development Mechanism and public aid to development. In the next part, she proposes an overview of her research works by distinguishing two directions: a macro-economic analysis of climate policies integrating second raw elements (Imaclim-R France), and strategies of struggle against climate change integrated into development policies. In a third part, she discusses research perspectives regarding energy transition and natural resources, mankind in the energy transition, and the citizen (scenarios, democracy and energy transition) [fr

  9. Climate, energy and emissions trading in the EU and DK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyck-Madsen, S.

    2004-04-01

    European Union member states are facing two serious challenges: human-induced climatic changes and oil shortage. Evidence that human-induced global heating is threatening the climatic balance is piling up and the conflicts over the last oil resources are becoming critical. The European Union has neither large oil resources nor foreign-political or military power to conquer additional oil resources. The EU Commission's awareness of these facts is influencing the EU energy and climate policy. Recently EU launched the directive on carbon dioxide emissions trading within certain energy-heavy sectors. The greenhouse gas emission allowance trading directive requires a national ceiling on the allocation of CO 2 quotas for the heavy industry and energy sectors, thus adapting the quantity of quotas to the Kyoto requirements. This requirement can be quite extensive for the sectors affected by the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading directive, if national governments choose to abstain from political intervention in order to reduce release of greenhouse gases in sectors outside the emissions trading, e.g. agriculture, transportation, households, and smaller industry and service. Lack of action in these sectors will require the governments to impose either large burdens or use of national Joint Implementation and Clean Development agreements on the heavy industry and energy sectors outside national borders, thus conflicting with the Kyoto Protocol. (BA)

  10. Blackout: coal, climate and the last energy crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinberg, R. [Post Carbon Institute in California, CA (United States)

    2009-07-15

    Coal fuels more than 30 per cent of UK electricity production, and about 50 per cent in the US, providing a significant portion of total energy output. China and India's recent ferocious economic growth has been based almost entirely on coal-generated electricity. Coal currently looks like a solution to many of our fast-growing energy problems. However, while coal advocates are urging us full steam ahead, the increasing reliance on this dirtiest of all fossil fuels has crucial implications for energy policy, pollution levels, the global climate, world economy and geopolitics. Drawbacks to a coal-based energy strategy include: Scarcity - new studies suggest that the peak of world coal production may actually be less than two decades away; Cost - the quality of produced coal is declining, while the expense of transportation is rising, leading to spiralling costs and increasing shortages; and, Climate impacts - our ability to deal with the historic challenge of climate change may hinge on reducing coal consumption in future years.

  11. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    The last IPCC report affirms the predominant role of low cloud-radiative feedbacks in the inter-model spread of climate sensitivity. Understanding the mechanisms that control the behavior of low-level clouds is thus crucial. However, the complexity of coupled ocean-atmosphere models and the large number of processes potentially involved make the analysis of this response difficult. To simplify the analysis and to identify the most critical controls of cloud feedbacks, we analyze the cloud response to climate change simulated by the IPSL-CM5A model in a hierarchy of configurations. A comparison between three model configurations (coupled, atmospheric and aqua-planet) using the same physical parametrizations shows that the cloud response to global warming is dominated by a decrease of low clouds in regimes of moderate subsidence. Using a Single Column Model, forced by weak subsidence large-scale forcing, allows us to reproduce the vertical cloud profile predicted in the 3D model, as well as its response to climate change (if a stochastic forcing is added on vertical velocity). We analyze the sensitivity of this low-cloud response to external forcing and also to uncertain parameters of physical parameterizations involved on the atmospheric model. Through a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we highlight several mechanisms: (1) Robust: Over weak subsidence regimes, the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship predicts that a warmer atmosphere leads to a increase of the vertical MSE gradient, resulting on a strengthening of the import of low-MSE from the free atmosphere into the cloudy boundary layer. The MSE budget links changes of vertical advection and cloud radiative effects. (2) Physics Model Dependent: The coupling between shallow convection, turbulence and cloud schemes allows the intensification of low-MSE transport so that cloud radiative cooling becomes 'less necessary' to balance the energy budget (Robust positive low cloud-radiative feedback for the model). The

  12. SLC summer 2010 university - The ocean in the climate-energy problem, urban policies. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-09-01

    This document brings together the available presentations given at the summer 2010 university of the SLC (save the climate) organization on the topics of the ocean in the climate-energy problem, and of the urban policies. Nine presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Biofuels made from micro-algae: stakes and challenges (Olivier Bernard, Comore - INRIA /CNRS/UPMC); 2 - The energy of waves (Alain Clement, Ecole Centrale de Nantes); 3 - The sea, new source of renewable energies? (J.J. Herou, EDF CIH); 4 - Oceans acidification: the other CO 2 problem (James Orr, Pierre Simon Laplace Institute - IPSL, Laboratory of climate and environmental Sciences - LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ); 5 - Oceans and carbon cycle (Laurent Bopp, IPSL/LSCE); 6 - Renewable marine energies (Yann-Herve De Roeck, France Energies Marines); 7 - Energy renovation of buildings (Jean-Claude Terrier, Mesac Europe); 8 - Modevur research project - Modeling of urban development, sketch of a development typology of chinese cities (Clement-Noel Douady); 9 - Urban areas in the fight against climate change: stakes, knowledge and controversies (Francois Menard, PUCA)

  13. A Unique Climate and Energy Policy - Key Problems and Possible Solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granic, G.

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses problems of independent application of climate and energy policy. In order to accomplish the goals from The Paris Climate Agreement, an agreement about the goals and measures for climate preservation from 2015, a unique climate and energy policy is suggested, as well as the measures for the implementation of it. To achieve no CO2 and GHG emissions in the energy sector, to have it be completely market based, energy efficient and technologically approved, a unique climate and energy policy is a necessary option and the only viable option to accomplish previously agreed climate goals.(author).

  14. LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

    2011-01-01

    This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

  15. Climate impacts on the cost of solar energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flowers, Mallory E.; Smith, Matthew K.; Parsekian, Ara W.; Boyuk, Dmitriy S.; McGrath, Jenna K.; Yates, Luke

    2016-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) estimates are widely utilized by decision makers to predict the long-term cost and benefits of solar PV installations, but fail to consider local climate, which impacts PV panel lifetime and performance. Specific types of solar PV panels are known to respond to climate factors differently. Mono-, poly-, and amorphous-silicon (Si) PV technologies are known to exhibit varying degradation rates and instantaneous power losses as a function of operating temperature, humidity, thermal cycling, and panel soiling. We formulate an extended LCOE calculation, which considers PV module performance and lifespan as a function of local climate. The LCOE is then calculated for crystalline and amorphous Si PV technologies across several climates. Finally, we assess the impact of various policy incentives on reducing the firm's cost of solar deployment when controlling for climate. This assessment is the first to quantify tradeoffs between technologies, geographies, and policies in a unified manner. Results suggest crystalline Si solar panels as the most promising candidate for commercial-scale PV systems due to their low degradation rates compared to amorphous technologies. Across technologies, we note the strong ability of investment subsidies in removing uncertainty and reducing the LCOE, compared to production incentives. - Highlights: •We integrate local climate into the Levelized Cost of photovoltaic technology. •Climate dictates panel degradation rates and the impact of temperature on efficiency. •We compare LCOE under policy scenarios for three technologies in four U. S. states. •Degradation is highly variable, increasing costs by shortening panel life in many regions. •Incentives targeting investment are most effective at reducing solar deployment costs.

  16. Infrared radiation parameterizations in numerical climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Kratz, David P.; Ridgway, William

    1991-01-01

    This study presents various approaches to parameterizing the broadband transmission functions for utilization in numerical climate models. One-parameter scaling is applied to approximate a nonhomogeneous path with an equivalent homogeneous path, and the diffuse transmittances are either interpolated from precomputed tables or fit by analytical functions. Two-parameter scaling is applied to parameterizing the carbon dioxide and ozone transmission functions in both the lower and middle atmosphere. Parameterizations are given for the nitrous oxide and methane diffuse transmission functions.

  17. Nuclear power and post-2012 energy and climate change policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisser, Daniel; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2008-01-01

    At present there is no binding agreement (at a global level) to address the risk of anthropogenic climate change after 2012. Disagreements abound with respect to a post-2012 climate change agreement, on issues such as economic development, policy criteria, environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, equity, dynamic flexibility, complementarity, enforceability and so on. One such disagreement is whether or not nuclear power should play a role in a post-2012 climate change agreement. This qualitative analysis explores the conditions under which nuclear power could contribute to addressing climate change in post-2012 architectures. It reveals that - given the right framework conditions - some architectures, like 'cap and trade' regimes or 'policies and measures' can improve the competitiveness of nuclear power plants, while others are unlikely to provide incentives for nuclear energy development in the short to medium term, such as adaptation and technology cooperation. Overall, the study concludes that post-2012 climate change policy should aim at providing policy flexibility without compromising technology flexibility. For example, the provision of long-term commitment periods has the potential to enable better investments in existing low-carbon technologies but stifle the policy flexibility that political decision makers are often keen to retain so that they can respond more quickly to new scientific evidence or advances in clean technology development

  18. Sustainable energy development and climate change in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xin Ren; Lei Zeng; Dadi Zhou

    2005-07-01

    This article analyses the national circumstances and major factors underpinning China's energy demand and supply, energy-related emissions, and consequently China's sustainable development. These factors include the huge, still growing, and aging population, rapid economic growth, ongoing industrialization and urbanization, environmental and health concerns at local, regional and global level. Against such background analysis, the article explores the potential and constraints of non-fossil fuel, fuel-switching to natural gas, economy restructuring and clean coal technology in mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and ensuring energy supply in China. The authors reiterate the importance of improving energy efficiency in China and discuss how to integrate renewable energy into rural development. The article concludes with an in-depth discussion about redefining development goals, the equity issue in climate change process, and the linkage with sustainable development. (author)

  19. Sustainable energy development and climate change in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, X.; Zeng, L.; Zhou, D.D. [UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    This article analyses the national circumstances and major factors underpinning China's energy demand and supply, energy-related emissions, and consequently China's sustainable development. These factors include the huge, still growing, and aging population, rapid economic growth, ongoing industrialization and urbanization, environmental and health concerns at local, regional and global level. Against such background analysis, the article explores the potential and constraints of non-fossil fuel, fuel-switching to natural gas, economy restructuring and clean coal technology in mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and ensuring energy supply in China. The authors reiterate the importance of improving energy efficiency in China and discuss how to integrate renewable energy into rural development. The article concludes with an in-depth discussion about redefining development goals, the equity issue in climate change process, and the linkage with sustainable development.

  20. Energy security and climate change protection: Complementarity or tradeoff?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Stephen P.A.; Huntington, Hillard G.

    2008-01-01

    Energy security and climate change protection have risen to the forefront of energy policy - linked in time and a perception that both goals can be achieved through the same or similar policies. Although such complementarity can exist for individual technologies, policymakers face a tradeoff between these two policy objectives. The tradeoff arises when policymakers choose the mix of individual technologies with which to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance energy security. Optimal policy is achieved when the cost of the additional use of each technology equals the value of the additional energy security and reduction in greenhouse gas emission that it provides. Such an approach may draw more heavily on conventional technologies that provide benefits in only one dimension than on more costly technologies that both increase energy security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (author)

  1. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  2. Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development...

  4. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.

    2004-08-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling tools for examining the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period (1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations and reanalysis data products. The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100) for two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). These differences are also of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The RCAO simulations for the 2071-2100 period indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during the winter season (December February), but the uncertainty of these prognoses remains high. (au)

  5. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

    2014-01-01

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  6. Sustainable development, energy and climate. Exploring synergies and tradeoffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halsnaes, K.; Garg, A.

    2006-11-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Development, Energy and Climate Project that has been managed by the UNEP Risoe Centre on behalf of UNEP DTIE. The project is a partnership between the UNEP Risoe Centre and centers of excellence in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Senegal and South Africa. The focus of this report is on the energy sector mitigation assessments that have been carried out in the countries. In addition to this work, the project has also included adaptation focused case studies that explore climate change impacts on the energy sector and infrastructure. The report includes a short introduction to the project and its approach and summaries of the six country studies. This is followed by an assessment of cross country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. Furthermore, energy access and affordability for households are considered as major social aspects of energy provision. The country study results that are included in this report are a short summary of some of the main findings and do not provide all details of the work that has been undertaken. Some of the countries in particular those with fast growing economies and energy sectors such as Brazil, China, India and South Africa have conducted general scenario analysis of the energy sector and explored some policies in more depth, while the country studies for Bangladesh and Senegal where the energy sector is less developed have focused more on specific issues related to energy access and the electricity sector. (au)

  7. Sustainable development, energy and climate. Exploring synergies and tradeoffs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halsnaes, K; Garg, A [eds.

    2006-11-15

    This report summarizes the results of the Development, Energy and Climate Project that has been managed by the UNEP Risoe Centre on behalf of UNEP DTIE. The project is a partnership between the UNEP Risoe Centre and centers of excellence in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Senegal and South Africa. The focus of this report is on the energy sector mitigation assessments that have been carried out in the countries. In addition to this work, the project has also included adaptation focused case studies that explore climate change impacts on the energy sector and infrastructure. The report includes a short introduction to the project and its approach and summaries of the six country studies. This is followed by an assessment of cross country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. Furthermore, energy access and affordability for households are considered as major social aspects of energy provision. The country study results that are included in this report are a short summary of some of the main findings and do not provide all details of the work that has been undertaken. Some of the countries in particular those with fast growing economies and energy sectors such as Brazil, China, India and South Africa have conducted general scenario analysis of the energy sector and explored some policies in more depth, while the country studies for Bangladesh and Senegal where the energy sector is less developed have focused more on specific issues related to energy access and the electricity sector. (au)

  8. Experts' conference on the Climate and Energy Contribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    This document first proposes the White Paper prepared for the experts' conference. After a presentation of the Emission Trading System (ETS), this paper highlights the benefit of the introduction of economical instruments rather than regulatory instruments to promote the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It underlines the distinction between the proposed 'climate-energy contribution' (or carbon tax) and the Cambridge tax. Then, it describes how to implement such a contribution, i.e. how to define its base, and how to relate it with existing taxes. Some graphs compare the tax rates on fuels, gas and domestic oil in European countries. The paper then defines what the field of application of the contribution could be, how to make this contribution more efficient, and what could be its economical consequences. Then, the document proposes the text of Michel Rocard's intervention on the stakes of conference on this climate-energy contribution

  9. Validating Savings Claims of Cold Climate Zero Energy Ready Homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, J. [Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States); Puttagunta, S. [Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States)

    2015-06-05

    This study was intended to validate actual performance of three ZERHs in the Northeast to energy models created in REM/Rate v14.5 (one of the certified software programs used to generate a HERS Index) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Building Energy Optimization (BEopt™) v2.3 E+ (a more sophisticated hourly energy simulation software). This report details the validation methods used to analyze energy consumption at each home.

  10. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. French

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  11. Energy security and climate change: How oil endowment influences alternative vehicle innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jung Eun

    2014-01-01

    Fast growing global energy needs raise concerns on energy supply security and climate change. Although policies addressing the two issues sometimes benefit one at the expense of the other, technology innovation, especially in alternative energy, provides a win–win solution to tackle both issues. This paper examines the effect of oil endowment on the patterns of technology innovation in the transportation sector, attempting to identify drivers of technology innovation in alternative energy. The analysis employs panel data constructed from patent data on five different types of automobile-related technologies from 1990 to 2002: oil extraction, petroleum refining, fuel cells, electric and hybrid vehicles (EHV) and vehicle energy efficiency. I find that countries with larger oil endowments perform less innovation on refining and alternative technologies. Conversely, higher gasoline prices positively impact the patent counts of alternative technologies and energy efficiency technology. The findings highlight the challenges and importance of policy designs in international climate change agreements. - Highlights: • I examine the effect of oil endowment on technology innovation in the transportation sector. • An empirical model was developed for a cross-country analysis of oil endowments. • A country's oil endowment is a negative driver of alternative technologies. • Energy price is a positive driver of alternative technologies and energy efficiency technology. • Implications for domestic and international climate policy are discussed

  12. Addressing the trade-climate change-energy nexus: China's explorations in a global governance landscape

    OpenAIRE

    Monkelbaan, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We have arrived at a critical juncture when it comes to understanding the numerous ways in which trade interacts with climate change and energy (trade-climate-energy nexus). Trade remains crucial for the sustainable development of the world's greatest trading nation: China. After clarifying the linkages within the trade, climate change and energy nexus, this article delves into China's specific needs and interests related to trade, climate change and energy. Then it explores the ways in which...

  13. The European framework for energy and climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helm, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    European energy and climate change policy rests on two main pillars: the internal energy market (IEM), and the climate change package (CCP). The IEM aimed at third party access and unbundling, neglecting the physical infrastructure and the basis for asset valuations and hence the harmonisation of network charges. The Commission plans to complete the IEM by 2014—almost a quarter of a century after embarking on the policy. Yet even if all the IEM directives are implemented, the EU will remain far from a single competitive market. The CCP was grounded on short term targets (the 2020-20-20 programme) on the assumption that fossil fuel prices would rise, making renewables competitive, and hence yielding a competitive advantage to the EU. The EUETS was intended to lead the way to a global trading system and an international agreement at Copenhagen. The EU has reduced the production of carbon emissions, but only as a result of de-industrialisation and slow growth, and at the expense of rising carbon consumption. Renewables have not led to green growth, but rather to a further eroding of competitiveness. The EUETS price has collapsed. In order for the EU to put the IEM and the CCP back on track, both need to be radically reconsidered. The IEM requires a refocusing on physical infrastructure, common accounting rules and an EU-wide approach to capacity markets and renewables trading. The CCP requires a refocusing on carbon consumption, on limiting the dash-for-coal, and on future rather than current renewables. - Highlights: • The design of the internal energy market. • The design of the climate change package. • The interaction between the internal energy market and the climate change package. • Required reforms

  14. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

  15. Energy Use and Indoor Climate in Two Schools Before and After Deep Energy Renovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jørgen; Thomsen, Kirsten Engelund; Mørck, Ove

    2013-01-01

    . The 7 buildings are being energy renovated and monitored with support from the EU-CONCERTO initiative as part of the project “Cost-effective Low-energy Advanced Sustainable So1utions – Class1”. The buildings are very different and therefore the energy renovations to take place will also vary from...... insulation of piping and improved control (Building Energy Management Systems – BEMS). This paper presents preliminary results of analysis and monitoring of energy use and indoor climate in the two public schools before and after deep energy renovation....

  16. Fuelling the climate crisis : the continental energy plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, D.; Scott, G.; Hocking, D.; Marchildon, S.

    2001-01-01

    This paper emphasized the need for the Canadian government to address the issue of climate change. It was argued that the political will in Canada to address global warming is subordinate to the expansion of fossil fuel production and exports. Canadians are highly dependent upon the services that these carbon-based fuels provide. However, these fossil fuels are significant contributors to local air pollution and the biggest contributor to global climate change. It was argued that conservation and other sources, such as renewable energy sources, are equally technically feasible and economically available. The paper criticized the fact that while world markets for renewables are expanding, Canada's energy future is being developed by the fossil fuel industry in collaboration with U.S. political leaders, energy regulators and policy makers, and that industry and government are ignoring the obvious contradiction between the science of climate change and the policy of fossil fuel expansion. The Canadian government encourages the development of fossil fuel supply and production through subsidies and incentive programs for exploration and development along with deregulation of the oil and natural gas markets. This paper demonstrated that under current market trends, the planned growth in Canadian fossil fuel production and use will raise emissions 44 per cent above the Kyoto target by 2010. New tar sands expansion projects, increased natural gas production to meet U.S. demand and new coal-fired electricity generation will add 63.5 megatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions to Canada's projected annual total. refs., tabs., figs

  17. High Resolution Modeling of Hurricanes in a Climate Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, T. R.

    2007-12-01

    model reproduces the observed increase in Atlantic hurricane activity (numbers, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), Power Dissipation Index (PDI), etc.) over the period 1980-2006 fairly realistically, and also simulates ENSO-related interannual variations in hurricane counts. Annual simulated hurricane counts from a two-member ensemble correlate with observed counts at r=0.86. However, the model does not simulate hurricanes as intense as those observed, with minimum central pressures of 937 hPa (category 4) and maximum surface winds of 47 m/s (category 2) being the most intense simulated so far in these experiments. To explore possible impacts of future climate warming on Atlantic hurricane activity, we are re-running the 1980- 2006 seasons, keeping the interannual to multidecadal variations unchanged, but altering the August-October mean climate according to changes simulated by an 18-member ensemble of AR4 climate models (years 2080- 2099, A1B emission scenario). The warmer climate state features higher Atlantic SSTs, and also increased vertical wind shear across the Caribbean (Vecchi and Soden, GRL 2007). A key assumption of this approach is that the 18-model ensemble-mean climate change is the best available projection of future climate change in the Atlantic. Some of the 18 global models show little increase in wind shear, or even a decrease, and thus there will be considerable uncertainty associated with the hurricane frequency results, which will require further exploration. Results from our simulations will be presented at the meeting.

  18. Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future Test Bed and Data Infrastructure Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Van Dam, Kerstin Kleese [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Shipman, G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-05-04

    The collaborative Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) project started in July 2011 with the goal of accelerating the development of climate model components (i.e., atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and land surface) and enhancing their predictive capabilities while incorporating uncertainty quantification (UQ). This effort required accessing and converting observational data sets into specialized model testing and verification data sets and building a model development test bed, where model components and sub-models can be rapidly evaluated. CSSEF’s prototype test bed demonstrated, how an integrated testbed could eliminate tedious activities associated with model development and evaluation, by providing the capability to constantly compare model output—where scientists store, acquire, reformat, regrid, and analyze data sets one-by-one—to observational measurements in a controlled test bed.

  19. Tendances Carbone no. 82 'A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies: CDC Climat Research's answer'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Tendances Carbone' bulletin specifically studies the developments of the European market for CO 2 allowances. This issue addresses the following points: To establish a climate and energy policy in the EU in 2030, CDC Climat Research addresses three main recommendations to the European Commission: (1) Establish a binding, single and ambitious CO 2 emission reduction target of at least 40% in 2030. (2) Put the EU ETS as the central and non-residual instrument aimed at promoting cost-effective reductions in Europe and other parts of the world. (3) Define a stable, predictable and flexible climate regulation to limit carbon leakage and encourage innovation. Key drivers of the European carbon price this month: - The European Parliament has adopted Back-loading: 1.85 billion EUAs will be sold at auction between now and 2015 instead of 2.75 billion; - Phase 2 compliance: a surplus of 1,742 million tonnes (excluding the aviation sector) including auctions. - Energy Efficiency Directive: 22 of the 27 Member States have forwarded indicative targets for 2020 to the European Commission; these targets will be assessed in early 2014

  20. MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

    1992-01-01

    An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

  1. Design challenges for a climate adaptive multi-functional lightweight prefab panel for energy-efficient retrofitting of residential building based on one-room model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkmans, T.J.A.; Donkervoort, D.R.; Phaff, J.C.; Valcke, S.L.A.

    2014-01-01

    Current solutions for highly energy-efficient retrofitting rely on thick static insulation, airtight construction and extensive ventilation systems to become independent from variable outdoor conditions. A building skin that adapts to the outdoor conditions to regulate the indoor conditions could

  2. Climate Policy in Terms of Open Energy Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granic, G.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes the objectives and approach to the climate policy impact analysis on the development of energy sector. The analysis included the goals for CO2 emission reduction until 2050, by sectors and in total, with reference to last 5-10 years. The analysis of energy market development in terms of CO2 emission reduction is given, and also the analysis of the final consumption for Croatia in period until 2050. The analysis of measures, of the manner in which the measures are carried out and of the potential of measures for CO2 emission reduction is presented. Estimations of economic and financial indicators for measurement implementation are given. Technological, energy, economic, organizational and institutional limitations are specifically analysed as part of objectives realisation of CO2 emission reduction, as is the risk of measurement implementation. The important parts of CO2 emission reduction policy are: technological development, expectations and possible risks of not achieving the set objectives. The important assumption of CO2 emission reduction objective realisation is institutional organisation of creation of energy policy and measurement implementation, in which the important measure is the forming of Ministry of energy, environment protection and climate change. At the end, recommendations are given, based on the performed analysis. (author).

  3. Integrated food–energy systems for climate-smart agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdanski Anne

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Food production needs to increase by 70%, mostly through yield increases, to feed the world in 2050. Increases in productivity achieved in the past are attributed in part to the significant use of fossil fuels. Energy use in agriculture is therefore also expected to rise in the future, further contributing to greenhouse emissions. At the same time, more than two-fifths of the world’s population still depends on unsustainably harvested wood energy for cooking and heating. Both types of energy use have detrimental impacts on the climate and natural resources. Continuing on this path is not an option as it will put additional pressure on the already stressed natural resource base and local livelihoods, while climate change is further reducing the resilience of agro-ecosystems and smallholder farmers. Ecosystem approaches that combine both food and energy production, such as agroforestry or integrated crop–livestock–biogas systems, could substantially mitigate these risks while providing both food and energy to rural and urban populations. Information and understanding on how to change course through the implementation of the practices outlined in this paper are urgently needed. Yet the scientific basis of such integrated systems, which is essential to inform decision-makers and to secure policy support, is still relatively scarce. The author therefore argues that new assessment methodologies based on a systems-oriented analysis are needed for analyzing these complex, multidisciplinary and large-scale phenomena.

  4. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  5. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  6. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  7. Twenty-second report. Energy - the changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blundell, Tom

    2000-06-01

    This comprehensive report examines the global context in Part 1 with chapters on the radical challenge; the causes and effects of climate change; possible preventive measures; and prospects for an effective global response. Part II focuses on the United Kingdom's response with chapters on the UK's present situation and policies; reducing energy use in the manufacturing industry, commercial and public services, households, and transport sectors; alternatives to fossil fuels such as renewable sources; patterns of energy supply and use; possible UK energy balances in the year 2050; and the adoption of a long-term strategy. Key recommendations are given, and illustrative energy balances for the UK in 2050, and technical issues relating to carbon resources and removal are discussed in the appendices

  8. Climate for Collaboration: Analysis of US and EU Lessons and Opportunities in Energy and Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vita, A.; de Connick, H.; McLaren, J.; Cochran, J.

    2009-11-01

    A deepening of cooperation between the United States and the European Union requires mutual trust, and understanding of current policies, challenges and successes. Through providing such understanding among policymakers, industry and other stakeholders in both economies, opportunities for transatlantic cooperation on climate change and energy policy emerge. This paper sets out by discussing the environmental, legislative, and economic contexts of the EU and US as related to climate. This context is essential to understanding how cap-and-trade, renewable energy and sustainable transportation policies have taken shape in the EU and the US, as described in Chapter 3.1. For each of these policies, a barrier analysis and discussion is provided. Chapter 4 builds off this improved understanding to listobservations and possible lessons learned. The paper concludes with recommendations on topics where EU and US interests align, and where further cooperation could prove beneficial.

  9. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Aboumahboub, Tino; Bowen, Alex; Calvin, Katherine; Campiglio, Emanuele; Kober, Tom; Jewell, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David; van Sluisveld, Mariësse; Zimmer, Anne; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2015-02-01

    Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2 °C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

  10. Towards low carbon business park energy systems: Classification of techno-economic energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timmerman, Jonas; Vandevelde, Lieven; Van Eetvelde, Greet

    2014-01-01

    To mitigate climate destabilisation, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be curbed. A major share of these emissions originates from the industry and energy sectors. Hence, a low carbon shift in industrial and business park energy systems is called for. Low carbon business parks minimise energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by maximal exploitation of local renewable energy production, enhanced energy efficiency, and inter-firm heat exchange, combined in a collective energy system. The holistic approach of techno-economic energy models facilitates the design of such systems, while yielding an optimal trade-off between energetic, economic and environmental performances. However, no models custom-tailored for industrial park energy systems are detected in literature. In this paper, existing energy model classifications are scanned for adequate model characteristics and accordingly, a confined number of models are selected and described. Subsequently, a practical typology is proposed, existing of energy system evolution, optimisation, simulation, accounting and integration models, and key model features are compared. Finally, important features for a business park energy model are identified. - Highlights: • A holistic perspective on (low carbon) business park energy systems is introduced. • A new categorisation of techno-economic energy models is proposed. • Model characteristics are described per model category. • Essential model features for business park energy system modelling are identified. • A strategy towards a techno-economic energy model for business parks is proposed

  11. An ecosystem approach to climate policy : the role of rural renewable energy design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venema, H.D.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change provides renewed importance to the issues of rural energy and the task of providing modern, sustainable energy services to the 2 billion people around the world who rely on biomass energy. Impoverished countries are most vulnerable to the adverse affects of climate change. The author argues that energy deprivation must be addressed in order to alleviate poverty, and that increased energy provision to the world's poor is not a development option, rather a basic necessity. The choices made in how that energy is delivered can either intensify climate change or mitigate it. There are many changes that are transforming the power sector. Deregulation is providing new business opportunities for independent power producers and contributing to the break up of vertically integrated power utilities. Ecosystem and community-based methods to rural development are contributing to the application of decentralized renewable energy source development. In countries such as India, policy-makers have legislated decentralized renewable energy systems. This study addresses the fact that there are no appropriate design tools for ecosystem-oriented rural energy planning. The author therefore presents a newly developed ecosystem-based approach to rural energy systems design whose main components include the use of a complex adaptive system theory to establish rural energy system design principles; a human energetics model for studying the influence of bioenergy resource accessibility; and spatial optimization methods for rural biomass energy planning. The approach was refined to include landscape structure optimization for biodiversity objectives using landscape ecology concepts in subregions of India. It was then generalized for regional-scale distributed renewable energy system designs with integrated bioenergy, wind and solar resource assessment

  12. The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessler, Andrew E.; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

    2018-04-01

    Our climate is constrained by the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and terrestrial energy radiated to space. This energy balance has been widely used to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from observations of 20th-century warming. Such estimates yield lower values than other methods, and these have been influential in pushing down the consensus ECS range in recent assessments. Here we test the method using a 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.1) simulations of the period 1850-2005 with known forcing. We calculate ECS in each ensemble member using energy balance, yielding values ranging from 2.1 to 3.9 K. The spread in the ensemble is related to the central assumption in the energy budget framework: that global average surface temperature anomalies are indicative of anomalies in outgoing energy (either of terrestrial origin or reflected solar energy). We find that this assumption is not well supported over the historical temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations. We find that framing energy balance in terms of 500 hPa tropical temperature better describes the planet's energy balance.

  13. The Development in modeling Tibetan Plateau Land/Climate Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yongkang; Liu, Ye; li, qian; Maheswor Shrestha, Maheswor; Ma, Hsi-Yen; Cox, Peter; Sun, shufen; Koike, Toshio

    2015-04-01

    Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in influencing the continental and planetary scale climate, including East Asian and South Asian monsoon, circulation and precipitation over West Pacific and Indian Oceans. The numerical study has identified TP as the area with strongest land/atmosphere interactions over the midlatitude land. The land degradation there has also affected the monsoon precipitation in TP along the monsoon pathway. The water cycle there affects water sources for major Asian river systems, which include the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yellow, and Yangtze Rivers. Despite the importance of TP land process in the climate system, the TP land surface processes are poorly modeled due to lack of data available for model validation. To better understand, simulate, and project the role of Tibetan Plateau land surface processes, better parameterization of the Tibetan Land surface processes have been developed and evaluated. The recently available field measurement there and satellite observation have greatly helped this development. This paper presents these new developments and preliminary results using the newly developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, frozen soil model, and glacier model. In recent CMIP5 simulation, the CMIP5 models with dynamic vegetation model show poor performance in simulating the TP vegetation and climate. To better simulate the TP vegetation condition and its interaction with climate, we have developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID), based on water, carbon, and energy balance. The simulated vegetation variables are updates, driven by carbon assimilation, allocation, and accumulation, as well as competition between plant functional types. The model has been validated with the station data, including those measured over the TP

  14. Climate stability and sensitivity in some simple conceptual models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bates, J. Ray [University College Dublin, Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, Dublin (Ireland)

    2012-02-15

    A theoretical investigation of climate stability and sensitivity is carried out using three simple linearized models based on the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget. The simplest is the zero-dimensional model (ZDM) commonly used as a conceptual basis for climate sensitivity and feedback studies. The others are two-zone models with tropics and extratropics of equal area; in the first of these (Model A), the dynamical heat transport (DHT) between the zones is implicit, in the second (Model B) it is explicitly parameterized. It is found that the stability and sensitivity properties of the ZDM and Model A are very similar, both depending only on the global-mean radiative response coefficient and the global-mean forcing. The corresponding properties of Model B are more complex, depending asymmetrically on the separate tropical and extratropical values of these quantities, as well as on the DHT coefficient. Adopting Model B as a benchmark, conditions are found under which the validity of the ZDM and Model A as climate sensitivity models holds. It is shown that parameter ranges of physical interest exist for which such validity may not hold. The 2 x CO{sub 2} sensitivities of the simple models are studied and compared. Possible implications of the results for sensitivities derived from GCMs and palaeoclimate data are suggested. Sensitivities for more general scenarios that include negative forcing in the tropics (due to aerosols, inadvertent or geoengineered) are also studied. Some unexpected outcomes are found in this case. These include the possibility of a negative global-mean temperature response to a positive global-mean forcing, and vice versa. (orig.)

  15. Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

  16. An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, Johannes; Hers, Sebastiaan; Van der Zwaan, Bob

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO 2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (author)

  17. Advanced simulations of energy demand and indoor climate of passive ventilation systems with heat recovery and night cooling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hviid, Christian Anker; Svendsen, Svend

    with little energy consumption and with satisfying indoor climate. The concept is based on using passive measures like stack and wind driven ventilation, effective night cooling and low pressure loss heat recovery using two fluid coupled water-to-air heat exchangers developed at the Technical University...... simulation program ESP-r to model the heat and air flows and the results show the feasibility of the proposed ventilation concept in terms of low energy consumption and good indoor climate....

  18. The 2030 EU Climate and Energy Package: why and how?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, Thomas; Colombier, Michel; Ribera, Teresa

    2013-01-01

    It is not surprising that in difficult economic times a long-term issue like climate policy has slipped down the agenda. However, Europe still has fundamental challenges to face in this regard. The IPCC's 5. assessment report underscored again the urgency of action on climate change. Europe will need to prepare its position for the crucial 2015 climate change negotiations hosted by France. Moreover, Europe's energy sector is in dire need of long-term orientations. Europe's fuel bill is a significant weight on its economy; the weight of evidence suggests that Europe will not replicate the US shale gas revolution. It is also important not to exaggerate the importance of the US shale revolution for competitiveness and economic performance. Europe will need to develop its own collective, competitive solutions. In comparison with 2008, there is significant divergence in Member States' vision for the 2030 climate and energy package. Some want renewables targets, others don't. Neither the Commission nor Member States are yet ready to address energy efficiency in the new package. And so on. This article conducts three thought experiments, thinking through three radically different designs for the 2030 package. These are a CO 2 only package, an innovation package, or a subsidiarity package. These reflections lead to the conclusion that a combination of elements is needed. Firstly, carbon pricing via the EU ETS should remain a central pillar, and be reinforced. Secondly, technology deployment objectives remain necessary: the key question should be what kind of targets and how to negotiate them, not whether. Finally, there is a need to build flexibility into the new package, in order to take into account the diversity of Member States' circumstances and preferences. (authors)

  19. Climate change helplessness and the (de)moralization of individual energy behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Salomon, Erika; Preston, Jesse; Tannenbaum, Melanie B.

    2017-01-01

    Although most people understand the threat of climate change, they do little to modify their own energy conservation behavior. One reason for this gap between belief and behavior may be that individual actions seem un-impactful and therefore are not morally relevant. This research investigates how climate change helplessness—belief that one’s actions cannot affect climate change—can undermine the moralization of climate change and personal energy conservation. In Study 1, climate change effic...

  20. Climate Change, the Energy-water-food Nexus, and the "New" Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, R. S.; Bennett, K. E.; Solander, K.; Hopkins, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change, extremes, and climate-driven disturbances are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources, particularly in the western and southwestern United States. These unprecedented conditions—a no-analog future—will result in challenges to adaptation, mitigation, and resilience planning for the energy-water-food nexus. We have analyzed the impact of climate change on Colorado River flows for multiple climate and disturbance scenarios: 12 global climate models and two CO2 emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Coupled Model Intercomparison Study, version 5, and multiple climate-driven forest disturbance scenarios including temperature-drought vegetation mortality and insect infestations. Results indicate a wide range of potential streamflow projections and the potential emergence of a "new" Colorado River basin. Overall, annual streamflow tends to increase under the majority of modeled scenarios due to projected increases in precipitation across the basin, though a significant number of scenarios indicate moderate and potentially substantial reductions in water availability. However, all scenarios indicate severe changes in seasonality of flows and strong variability across headwater systems. This leads to increased fall and winter streamflow, strong reductions in spring and summer flows, and a shift towards earlier snowmelt timing. These impacts are further exacerbated in headwater systems, which are key to driving Colorado River streamflow and hence water supply for both internal and external basin needs. These results shed a new and important slant on the Colorado River basin, where an emergent streamflow pattern may result in difficulties to adjust to these new regimes, resulting in increased stress to the energy-water-food nexus.

  1. Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

    2012-11-01

    In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

  2. Envelope as Climate Negotiator: Evaluating adaptive building envelope's capacity to moderate indoor climate and energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, James

    Through manipulation of adaptable opportunities available within a given environment, individuals become active participants in managing personal comfort requirements, by exercising control over their comfort without the assistance of mechanical heating and cooling systems. Similarly, continuous manipulation of a building skin's form, insulation, porosity, and transmissivity qualities exerts control over the energy exchanged between indoor and outdoor environments. This research uses four adaptive response variables in a modified software algorithm to explore an adaptive building skin's potential in reacting to environmental stimuli with the purpose of minimizing energy use without sacrificing occupant comfort. Results illustrate that significant energy savings can be realized with adaptive envelopes over static building envelopes even under extreme summer and winter climate conditions; that the magnitude of these savings are dependent on climate and orientation; and that occupant thermal comfort can be improved consistently over comfort levels achieved by optimized static building envelopes. The resulting adaptive envelope's unique climate-specific behavior could inform designers in creating an intelligent kinetic aesthetic that helps facilitate adaptability and resiliency in architecture.

  3. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leduc, Martin [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada); UQAM/Ouranos, Montreal, QC (Canada); Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada)

    2009-05-15

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the ''perfect model'' approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 x 100 grid points). The permanent ''spatial spin-up'' corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere. (orig.)

  4. Energy models for the FRG

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voss, A.

    1976-01-01

    The development and application of energy models as helping factors in planning and decision making has gained more importance in all regions of energy economy and energy policy in recent times. This development not only covered models for the single branches and companies like, for example, for improving power plant systems, but also models showing the whole energy system. These models aim at analizing the possibilities of developing the energy supply with regard to aspects of the entire system, paying special attention to the integration of the energy system into economic and ecological side conditions. The following essay briefly explains the energy models developed for the Federal Republic of Germany after analizing the set of problems of energy and the demands on the energy planning methods arising from them. The energy model system developed by the programming team 'Systems research and technological development' of the nuclear research plant in Juelich is dealt with very intensively, explaining some model results as examples. Finally, the author gives his opinion on the problem of the integration and conversion of model studies in the process of decision making. (orig.) [de

  5. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  6. US views on climate change and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, C.D.

    2009-01-01

    The US approach to both nuclear energy and climate change can be summarized in two words: risk management. Unpacking the layers of risk management, however, requires understanding the characteristics of the US electricity market and the influences that federal and state governments have on that market. The fi rst set of issues to understand is that electric utilities in the USA are relatively risk averse, increasingly subject to competition, acutely aware of their accountability to stock investors and relatively lacking in the large capital needed to build nuclear power plants. Chief executive officers (CEOs) of utilities know that their companies' long term financial futures ride on the decisions that they make today about what types of power plants to build because of the plants' decades long lifetimes. John Rowe, CEO of Exelon, the US based utility with the largest number of nuclear reactors, expressed this point directly: 'cost is fundamental'. Many other CEOs are receptive to countering climate change, but not at the risk of hurting the US economy. This is the prevailing perception among many US business leaders. In contrast, some experts have argued that on balance such efforts could help the economy and would mitigate catastrophic climate change effects. The bottom line is that the USA can choose to pay in the near term or delay longer - with potentially graver consequences - to address climate change

  7. Climate classifications and building energy use implications in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Kevin K.W.; Li, Danny H.W.; Lam, Joseph C.; Yang, Liu

    2010-01-01

    Cluster analysis of summer and winter discomfort in terms of heat and cold stresses based on 102-year (1901-2002) weather data in China was conducted. Five bioclimate zones were identified. These were compared with the corresponding thermal and solar zoning classifications. Bio-I and Bio-II tended to locate largely within severe cold and cold climates in the north with excellent solar availability (annual clearness index K t generally exceeding 0.5). Bio-III and Bio-IV covered mostly the hot summer and cold winter and mild climate zones. Despite the relatively low K t in winter, passive solar heating should be able to meet a significant proportion of the heating requirements. Bio-V covered the hot summer and warmer winter region, where heat stress and hence cooling requirement dominated. Decreasing trends in the zone-average annual cumulative cold stress during the 102-year period were observed for all five zones. There was, however, no distinct pattern for the heat stress and the changes tended to be more subtle. These indicate that climate change during the 20 th century affected winter discomfort (especially in colder climates in the north) more than the summer discomfort. This could have significant implications for energy use in buildings if such trends persist. (author)

  8. Interlocal collaboration on energy efficiency, sustainability and climate change issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ssu-Hsien

    Interlocal energy collaboration builds upon network structures among local policy actors dealing with energy, climate change and sustainability issues. Collaboration efforts overcome institutional collective action (ICA) dilemmas, and cope with the problems spanning jurisdictional boundaries, externalities, and free-rider problems. Interlocal energy collaboration emerges as the agreements in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, pollution control, land use, purchasing, retrofits, transportation, and so forth. Cities work collaboratively through contractual mechanisms (i.e. formal/informal agreements) and collective mechanisms (i.e. regional partnerships or membership organizations) on a variety of energy issues. What factors facilitate interlocal energy collaboration? To what extent is collaboration through interlocal contractual mechanisms different from collective mechanisms? This dissertation tries to answer these questions by examining: city goal priority on energy related issues as well as other ICA explanatory factors. Research data are drawn mainly from the 2010 national survey "Implementation of energy efficiency and sustainability program" supported by National Science Foundation and the IBM Endowment for the Business of Government. The research results show that city emphasis on common pool resource, scale economies and externality issues significantly affect individual selection of tools for energy collaboration. When expected transaction costs are extremely high or low, the contractual mechanism of informal agreement is more likely to be selected to preserve most local autonomy and flexibility; otherwise, written and formal tools for collaboration are preferred to impose constraints on individual behavior and reduce the risks of defection.

  9. World Energy Outlook Special Report 2013: Redrawing the Energy Climate Map

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    Governments have decided collectively that the world needs to limit the average global temperature increase to no more than 2°C and international negotiations are engaged to that end. Yet any resulting agreement will not emerge before 2015 and new legal obligations will not begin before 2020. Meanwhile, despite many countries taking new actions, the world is drifting further and further from the track it needs to follow. The energy sector is the single largest source of climate-changing greenhouse-gas emissions and limiting these is an essential focus of action. The World Energy Outlook has published detailed analysis of the energy contribution to climate change for many years. But, amid major international economic preoccupations, there are worrying signs that the issue of climate change has slipped down the policy agenda. This Special Report seeks to bring it right back on top by showing that the dilemma can be tackled at no net economic cost.

  10. World Energy Outlook Special Report 2013: Redrawing the Energy Climate Map (Executive Summary)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    Governments have decided collectively that the world needs to limit the average global temperature increase to no more than 2 °C and international negotiations are engaged to that end. Yet any resulting agreement will not emerge before 2015 and new legal obligations will not begin before 2020. Meanwhile, despite many countries taking new actions, the world is drifting further and further from the track it needs to follow. The energy sector is the single largest source of climate-changing greenhouse-gas emissions and limiting these is an essential focus of action. The World Energy Outlook has published detailed analysis of the energy contribution to climate change for many years. But, amid major international economic preoccupations, there are worrying signs that the issue of climate change has slipped down the policy agenda. This Special Report seeks to bring it right back on top by showing that the dilemma can be tackled at no net economic cost.

  11. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  12. Costs and Benefits to EU Member States of 2030 Climate and Energy Targets - February 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    Costs and Benefits to