Climate models and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1997-12-31

In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

Climate models and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1996-12-31

In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

Energy and climate policy in Europe; Energie- und Klimapolitik in Europa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This is a publication of the Baden-Wuerttemberg state center of political education (Landeszentrale fuer Politische Bildung Baden-Wuerttemberg) on energy policy and climate policy in Europe. It discusses the following aspects: Assured supply of energy and climate policy - incompatible goals? Climate policy and energy policy in a global system; Legitimation of the EU by successful energy policy and climate policy; Emission trading: Selling of indulgences or successful instrument? Energy policy in Europe after 1945; From a beacon of hope to a phase-out model? The future of nuclear power; The future of renewable energy sources in Europe. (orig./RHM)

High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50

Evaluation of climate change impacts on energy demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Taseska, Verica; Markovska, Natasa; Callaway, John M.

2012-01-01

change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal...... electricity production mix, taking into account country’s development plans (without climate change); 2) Climate Change Damage Case, which introduces the climate changes by adjusting the heating and cooling degree days inputs, consistent with the existing national climate scenarios; and 3) Climate Change...... Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages...

Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

2011-12-15

The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous

Climate and energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

The dossier on Climate and Energy encompasses contributions addressing the following topics: Climate research in Germany, perspectives of the energy of the future; Energy-conserving building design, construction and retrofitting; Companies developing ecological awareness and ecological performance; World population, energy consumption and greenhouse gas abatement; On the uncertainty involved in political evaluation of the global climate change; Economic aspects of the carbon dioxide issue; Ozone - polar stratospheres - clouds and ozone hole; Ozone - vertical ozone distribution in the antarctic region; Sudden climate change; Sulfate aerosols and climate change; Symptoms of the global climate change; IKARUS - greenhouse gas abatement strategies; Energy from fossil fuels; Renewable energy sources; Nuclear fusion; Is there a chance for nuclear energy?; Least-cost planning leading to energy-conserving power plants; Pleading for a sustainable energy economy; Why we both love and destroy nature. The concluding two contributions are interviews highlighting two statements: We will persist in our intention to achieve the declared objectives for greenhouse gas abatement, and: We cannot do without nuclear energy. (RHM) [de

A Multi-Scale Energy Food Systems Modeling Framework For Climate Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Siddiqui, S.; Bakker, C.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Hobbs, B. F.; Broaddus, E.; Neff, R.; Haskett, J.; Parker, C.

2016-12-01

Our goal is to understand coupled system dynamics across scales in a manner that allows us to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes (nutritional satisfaction, household economic well-being) to development strategies and to climate or market induced shocks in sub-Saharan Africa. We adopt both bottom-up and top-down multi-scale modeling approaches focusing our efforts on food, energy, water (FEW) dynamics to define, parameterize, and evaluate modeled processes nationally as well as across climate zones and communities. Our framework comprises three complementary modeling techniques spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture interdependencies between sectors, across time scales, and on multiple levels of geographic aggregation. At the center is a multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial equilibrium model for the production, consumption, storage, and transportation of food, energy, and fuels, which is the focus of this presentation. We show why such models can be very useful for linking and integrating across time and spatial scales, as well as a wide variety of models including an agent-based model applied to rural villages and larger population centers, an optimization-based electricity infrastructure model at a regional scale, and a computable general equilibrium model, which is applied to understand FEW resources and economic patterns at national scale. The MME is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players in an energy, electricity, or food market and captures important food supply chain components of trade and food distribution accounting for infrastructure and geography. Second, our model considers food access and utilization by modeling food waste and disaggregating consumption by income and age. Third, the model is set up to evaluate the effects of seasonality and system shocks on supply, demand, infrastructure, and transportation in both energy and food.

Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

1988-04-01

The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

(Un)certainty in climate change impacts on global energy consumption

Science.gov (United States)

van Ruijven, B. J.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to have an influence on the energy sector, especially on energy demand. For many locations, this change in energy demand is a balance between increase of demand for space cooling and a decrease of space heating demand. We perform a large-scale uncertainty analysis to characterize climate change risk on energy consumption as driven by climate and socioeconomic uncertainty. We combine a dynamic econometric model1 with multiple realizations of temperature projections from all 21 CMIP5 models (from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections2) under moderate (RCP4.5) and vigorous (RCP8.5) warming. Global spatial population projections for five SSPs are combined with GDP projections to construct scenarios for future energy demand driven by socioeconomic change. Between the climate models, we find a median global increase in climate-related energy demand of around 24% by 2050 under RCP8.5 with an interquartile range of 18-38%. Most climate models agree on increases in energy demand of more than 25% or 50% in tropical regions, the Southern USA and Southern China (see Figure). With respect to socioeconomic scenarios, we find wide variations between the SSPs for the number of people in low-income countries who are exposed to increases in energy demand. Figure attached: Number of models that agree on total climate-related energy consumption to increase or decrease by more than 0, 10, 25 or 50% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and SSP5 as result of the CMIP5 ensemble of temperature projections. References1. De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate. (FEEM, 2016). 2. Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16, 3309-3314 (2012).

Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vliet, Oscar van; Krey, Volker; McCollum, David; Pachauri, Shonali; Nagai, Yu; Rao, Shilpa; Riahi, Keywan

2012-01-01

We use the MESSAGE model to examine multiple dimensions of sustainable development for three Asian regions in a set of scenarios developed for the Asian Modelling Exercise. Using climate change mitigation as a starting point for the analysis, we focus on the interaction of climate and energy with technology choice, energy security, energy access, and air pollution, which often have higher policy priority than climate change. Stringent climate policies drive the future energy supply in Asia from being dominated by coal and oil to a more diversified system based mostly on natural gas, coal with CCS, nuclear and renewable energy. The increase in diversity helps to improve the energy security of individual countries and regions. Combining air pollution control policies and universal energy access policies with climate policy can further help to reduce both outdoor and indoor air pollution related health impacts. Investments into the energy system must double by 2030 to achieve stringent climate goals, but are largely offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution abatement. Strong focus on end-use efficiency also helps lowering overall total costs and allows for limiting or excluding supply side technologies from the mitigation portfolio. Costs of additional energy access policies and measures are a small fraction of total energy system costs. - Highlights: ► Half of added investments in energy offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution. ► Costs for achieving universal energy access much smaller than energy system costs. ► Combined emissions and access policies further reduce air pollution impacts on health. ► Strong focus on end-use efficiency allows for more flexibility on energy sources. ► Stringent climate policy can improve energy security of Asian regions.

Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

2009-01-01

Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

Review of models on energy and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weyant, J.

1991-01-01

The Energy Modeling Forum recently has initiated a global climate change project. The purpose of the project is to summarize the work which has already been done on this topic and to evaluate the quality of the work. Several critical issues arise in any effort to make credible estimates of the cost of greenhouse control strategies. First, a worldwide modeling framework must be developed because carbon emissions from particular regions affect the global atmosphere. Because the data available on developing countries is quite poor at present, future efforts should focus on new data collection and modeling efforts in these regions. Second, all the major greenhouse gases - CO 2 , CFCs, methane and N 2 O - and not just carbon dioxide must be considered in future analyses. It is the overall concentration of all these different greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that ultimately will lead to global climate change. Third, an effective means for analyzing the various greenhouse gas control strategies must be developed. In order to successfully carry out the final task, a method must be developed which integrates a top-down macro-economic approach with a bottom-up process engineering approach. When implementing the macro-economic approach, one must choose plausible ranges for future economic and population growth rates. The reason for this is that even small changes in these driving factors can have huge impacts on emissions projections over the 100 or more year time frames required to address the greenhouse gas problem. The implementation of the process engineering approach requires: an accurate characterization of the costs, performance and availability of current and likely future technologies; an assessment of the likely barriers to technology transfer of both existing and new technologies, particularly from the developed to the developing countries; and an evaluation of the impact of energy prices and greenhouse gas policies on new technological development

Addressing climate and energy misconceptions - teaching tools offered by the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN)

Science.gov (United States)

Gold, A. U.; Ledley, T. S.; Kirk, K. B.; Grogan, M.; McCaffrey, M. S.; Buhr, S. M.; Manduca, C. A.; Fox, S.; Niepold, F.; Howell, C.; Lynds, S. E.

2011-12-01

Despite a prevalence of peer-reviewed scientific research and high-level reports by intergovernmental agencies (e.g., IPCC) that document changes in our climate and consequences for human societies, the public discourse regards these topics as controversial and sensitive. The chasm between scientific-based understanding of climate systems and public understanding can most easily be addressed via high quality, science-based education on these topics. Well-trained and confident educators are required to provide this education. However, climate science and energy awareness are complex topics that are rapidly evolving and have a great potential for controversy. Furthermore, the interdisciplinary nature of climate science further increases the difficulty for teachers to stay abreast of the science and the policy. Research has shown that students and educators alike hold misconceptions about the climate system in general and the causes and effects of climate change in particular. The NSF-funded CLEAN Pathway (http://cleanet.org) as part of the National Science Digital Library (http://www.nsdl.org) strives to address these needs and help educators address misconceptions by providing high quality learning resources and professional development opportunities to support educators of grade levels 6 through 16. The materials focus on teaching climate science and energy use. The scope and framework of the CLEAN Pathway is defined by the Essential Principles of Climate Science (CCSP, 2009) and the Energy Literacy Principles recently developed by the Department of Energy. Following this literacy-based approach, CLEAN helps with developing mental models to address misconceptions around climate science and energy awareness through a number of different avenues. These are: 1) Professional development opportunities for educators - interactive webinars for secondary teachers and virtual workshops for college faculty, 2) A collection of scientifically and pedagogically reviewed, high

A continuous latitudinal energy balance model to explore non-uniform climate engineering strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Bonetti, F.; McInnes, C. R.

2016-12-01

Current concentrations of atmospheric CO2 exceed measured historical levels in modern times, largely attributed to anthropogenic forcing since the industrial revolution. The required decline in emissions rates has never been achieved leading to recent interest in climate engineering for future risk-mitigation strategies. Climate engineering aims to offset human-driven climate change. It involves techniques developed both to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods) and to counteract the radiative forcing that it generates (Solar Radiation Management (SRM) methods). In order to investigate effects of SRM technologies for climate engineering, an analytical model describing the main dynamics of the Earth's climate has been developed. The model is a time-dependent Energy Balance Model (EBM) with latitudinal resolution and allows for the evaluation of non-uniform climate engineering strategies. A significant disadvantage of climate engineering techniques involving the management of solar radiation is regional disparities in cooling. This model offers an analytical approach to design multi-objective strategies that counteract climate change on a regional basis: for example, to cool the Artic and restrict undesired impacts at mid-latitudes, or to control the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using the Green's function approach the resulting partial differential equation allows for the computation of the surface temperature as a function of time and latitude when a 1% per year increase in the CO2 concentration is considered. After the validation of the model through comparisons with high fidelity numerical models, it will be used to explore strategies for the injection of the aerosol precursors in the stratosphere. In particular, the model involves detailed description of the optical properties of the particles, the wash-out dynamics and the estimation of the radiative cooling they can generate.

Climate-Energy Nexus

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sayler, Gary; Gentry, Randall; Zhuang, Jie

2010-07-01

The 140-page published proceedings of the workshop include individual articles and PowerPoint slides for all workshop presentations. The proceedings also contain pertinent background information on the China-US Joint Research Center, partnering organizations, and workshop goals and objectives. Overall, the workshop increased the understanding of the impacts of climate change on energy use and renewable energy production as well as the complex relationships among land use, energy production, and ecological restoration. The workshop served as an international platform for scientists and students of different research backgrounds to develop a unified perspective on energy and climate relationships. Such understanding will benefit future cooperation between China and the US in mitigating global climate change. The workshop’s agenda, which is highly interdisciplinary, explored many potential opportunities for international collaboration in ecosystem management, climate modeling, greenhouse gas emissions, and bioenergy sustainability. International research groups have been suggested in the areas of genomes and biotechnology of energy plants, sustainable management of soil and water resources, carbon sequestration, and microbial processes for ecological cycles. The project has attracted considerable attention from institutes beyond the China-US Joint Research Center partners, and several of them (such as Institute of Qing-Tibet Plateau Research, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS) have expressed interest in joining the partnership. In addition, the workshop played a significant role in facilitating establishment of private-public partnerships between government and private bioenergy companies (such as L.R. Shugarts and Associates, Inc.), including seed providers (Blade Energy Crops, Thousand Oaks, CA), pilot demonstration projects at coal-producing cities (e.g., Huaibei, Anhui province, China), and the development of methodology

Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

van der Zwaan, Bob; Kober, Tom; Calderon, Silvia; Clarke, Leon; Daenzer, Katie; Kitous, Alban; Labriet, Maryse; Lucena, André F. P.; Octaviano, Claudia; Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas

2016-05-01

In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO₂ abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO₂ emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO₂ emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two- to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050.Wefind that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, depending on which model is used. Also for CCS we observe large diversity in model outcomes, which reflects the uncertainties with regard to its future implementation potential as a result of

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

Producing an integrated climate-land-energy-water (CLEW) model for glaciated regions in the developing world

Science.gov (United States)

Delman, E. M.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

Growing concern over the impact of climate change on global freshwater resources has spurred a demand for practical, basin-specific adaptation tools. The potential for water stress is particularly inflated in the glaciated watersheds of the developing world; widespread and rapid glacial retreat has forced regional resource managers to reconcile the reality of a diminishing supply with an overall increase in demand, while accounting for the underlying geopolitical and cultural context. An integrated approach, such as the development of a Climate-Land-Energy-Water (CLEW) model that examines relationships among climate, land-use, and the energy and water sectors, can be used to assess the impact of different climate change scenarios on basin sustainability and vulnerability. This study will first constrain the hydrologic budget in the Río Santa Watershed of Peru using satellite imagery, historical and contemporary stream discharge data, hydrologic modeling, climatic data analysis, and isotopic and chemical tracers. Ultimately, glacier retreat will be examined at the watershed scale and be used as an input in the CLEW model framework to assess hydrologic budget scenarios and the subsequent impact on regional economic and environmental sustainability.

The impact of climate change on the European energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dowling, Paul

2013-01-01

Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented. Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. - Highlights: • Expanded coverage of climate change impacts on European energy system. • Demand side impacts are larger than supply side impacts. • Power from fossil and nuclear sources decreases, renewable energy increases. • Impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. • Synergies exist between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation

Combining climate and energy policies: synergies or antagonism? Modeling interactions with energy efficiency instruments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecuyer, Oskar; Bibas, Ruben

2012-01-01

In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce GHG emissions and although a price on carbon tends also to give the right incentives for RE and EE, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single framework and to quantify the antagonistic effects of the joint promotion of RE and EE. We also show and quantify the effects of this joint promotion on ETS permit price, on wholesale market price and on energy production levels. (authors)

Dynamic modeling of potentially conflicting energy reduction strategies for residential structures in semi-arid climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Hester, Nathan; Li, Ke; Schramski, John R; Crittenden, John

2012-04-30

Globally, residential energy consumption continues to rise due to a variety of trends such as increasing access to modern appliances, overall population growth, and the overall increase of electricity distribution. Currently, residential energy consumption accounts for approximately one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption. This research analyzes the effectiveness of a range of energy-saving measures for residential houses in semi-arid climates. These energy-saving measures include: structural insulated panels (SIP) for exterior wall construction, daylight control, increased window area, efficient window glass suitable for the local weather, and several combinations of these. Our model determined that energy consumption is reduced by up to 6.1% when multiple energy savings technologies are combined. In addition, pre-construction technologies (structural insulated panels (SIPs), daylight control, and increased window area) provide roughly 4 times the energy savings when compared to post-construction technologies (window blinds and efficient window glass). The model also illuminated the importance variations in local climate and building configuration; highlighting the site-specific nature of this type of energy consumption quantification for policy and building code considerations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Energies-climate review (Panorama energies-climate) - issue 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goubet, Cecile; Beriot, Nicolas; Daurian, Aurelien; Vieillefosse, Alice; Ducastelle, Julien; Le Guen, Solenn; Strang, Axel; Courtois, Sophie; Brender, Pierre; Guibert, Olivier de; Croquette, Gilles; Simiu, Diane; Venturini, Isabelle; Hesske, Philip; Oriol, Louise; Louati, Sami; Cadin, Didier; Korman, Bernard; Defays, Julien; Balian, Armelle; Guichaoua, Sabine; Isoard, Vivien; Lamy, Jean-michel; Pelce, Frederic; Fondeville, Louis; Baumont, Thierry; Triquet, Olivier; Mouloudi, Fadwa; Quintaine, Thierry; Reizine, Stanislas; Pertuiset, Thomas; Caron, Antoine; Blanchard, Sidonie; Timsit, Isabelle; Lewis, Florian; Ducouret, Melanie; Leclercq, Martine; Derville, Isabelle; Grenon, Georgina; Thomas, Julien; Oeser, Christian; Thouin, Catherine; Dumiot, Jacques-Emmanuel; Rondeau, Claudine; Menager, Yann; Barber, Nicolas; Weill, Jonathan; Furois, Timothee; Thomines, Marie; Brunet-Lecomte, Helene; Boutot, Romary; Strang, Axel; Giraud, Jean; Thomas, Julien; Oeser, Christian; Perrette, Lionel; Breda, Willy; Panetier, Vincent; Miraval, Bruno; Delaugerre, Frederique; Leinekugel Le Cocq, Thibaut; Lemaire, Yves; Thabet, Soraya

2013-01-01

This issue first analyses what is at stake with energy transition: struggle against climate change, management of energy demand and promotion of energy efficiency, struggle against energy poverty, development of technologies for tomorrow's energy system. It discusses France's position within its European and international environment: European energy-climate objectives, world context of oil and gas markets, European electricity markets, imports and exports, energy bill. It presents and analyses the situation of the oil and gas sector in France: hydrocarbon exploration and production in France, refining activities, substitution fuels, oil infrastructures, oil product retailing, and gas infrastructures. It then presents the French electric system (electricity production, electricity transport and distribution grids and networks, electric system safety) and the industrial sectors involved in de-carbonated energy production: biomass, wind energy, sea energy, geothermal energy, hydroelectricity, nuclear energy, photovoltaic and thermodynamic solar energy. It addresses the industrial sectors involved in a better use of energy: dynamic control of smart energy systems (smart grids, hydrogen, energy storage), CO 2 capture and storage, de-carbonated vehicle and its ecosystem. The last part addresses oil product prices, gas prices, electricity prices, the energy tax system, and the arrangements and costs of the support to renewable energy production

A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai, Yiyong; Newth, David; Finnigan, John; Gunasekera, Don

2015-01-01

Highlights: • This paper introduces the design of a hybrid energy-economy model, GTEM-C. • The model offers a unified tool to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. • Results are presented on global energy transformation due to carbon mitigation. • Electrification with renewable energies can contain the spiking of carbon prices. - Abstract: This paper introduces the design of the CSIRO variant of the Global Trade and Environment model (GTEM-C). GTEM-C is a hybrid model that combines the top-down macroeconomic representation of a computable general equilibrium model with the bottom-up engineering details of energy production. The model features detailed accounting for global energy flows that are embedded in traded energy goods, and it offers a unified framework to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. As an illustrative example, we present simulation results on global energy transformation under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative carbon pathways 4.5 and 8.5. By testing the model’s sensitivity to the relevant parameter, we find that the pace of electrification will significantly contain the spiking of carbon prices because electricity can be produced from carbon-free or less carbon-intensive technologies. The decoupling of energy use and carbon footprint, due to the uptake of clean electricity technologies, such as nuclear, wind, solar, and carbon capture and storage, allows the world to maintain high level of energy consumption, which is essential to economic growth

Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Auke Hoekstra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The energy domain is still dominated by equilibrium models that underestimate both the dangers and opportunities related to climate change. In reality, climate and energy systems contain tipping points, feedback loops, and exponential developments. This paper describes how to create realistic energy transition management models: quantitative models that can discover profitable pathways from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We review the literature regarding agent-based economics, disruptive innovation, and transition management and determine the following requirements. Actors must be detailed, heterogeneous, interacting, learning, and strategizing. Technology should be represented as a detailed and heterogeneous portfolio that can develop in a bottom-up manner, using endogenous feedback loops. Assumptions about discount rates and the social cost of carbon should be configurable. The model should contain interactions between the global, national, local, and individual level. A review of modelling techniques shows that equilibrium models are unsuitable and that system dynamics and discrete event simulation are too limited. The agent-based approach is found to be uniquely suited for the complex adaptive sociotechnical systems that must be modelled. But the choice for agent-based models does not mean a rejection of other approaches because they can be accommodated within the agent-based framework. We conclude with practical guidelines.

An analytical model for climatic predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1990-12-01

A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

Novel Methods to Explore Building Energy Sensitivity to Climate and Heat Waves Using PNNL's BEND Model

Science.gov (United States)

Burleyson, C. D.; Voisin, N.; Taylor, T.; Xie, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

The DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model to simulate energy usage in residential and commercial buildings responding to changes in weather, climate, population, and building technologies. At its core, BEND is a mechanism to aggregate EnergyPlus simulations of a large number of individual buildings with a diversity of characteristics over large spatial scales. We have completed a series of experiments to explore methods to calibrate the BEND model, measure its ability to capture interannual variability in energy demand due to weather using simulations of two distinct weather years, and understand the sensitivity to the number and location of weather stations used to force the model. The use of weather from "representative cities" reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate (Fig. 1). We quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations across the western U.S., ranging from 8 to roughly 150. Using 8 stations results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 4.0°C. The mean absolute bias drops to 1.5°C using all available stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%. Additionally, using only 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% bias of peak building loads under heat wave or cold snap conditions, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may rely on these types of simulations. This analysis suggests that using 4 stations per climate zone may be sufficient for most purposes. Our novel approach, which requires no new EnergyPlus simulations, could be useful to other researchers designing or calibrating aggregate building model simulations - particularly those looking at

Modeling glacial climates

Science.gov (United States)

North, G. R.; Crowley, T. J.

1984-01-01

Mathematical climate modelling has matured as a discipline to the point that it is useful in paleoclimatology. As an example a new two dimensional energy balance model is described and applied to several problems of current interest. The model includes the seasonal cycle and the detailed land-sea geographical distribution. By examining the changes in the seasonal cycle when external perturbations are forced upon the climate system it is possible to construct hypotheses about the origin of midlatitude ice sheets and polar ice caps. In particular the model predicts a rather sudden potential for glaciation over large areas when the Earth's orbital elements are only slightly altered. Similarly, the drift of continents or the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological time induces radical changes in continental ice cover. With the advance of computer technology and improved understanding of the individual components of the climate system, these ideas will be tested in far more realistic models in the near future.

Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Generation (ReEDS Model Analysis) U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Modeling and Analysis Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis NREL's energy-water modeling and analysis vulnerabilities from various factors, including water. Example Projects Renewable Electricity Futures Study

Modeling for climate change in the aspect of nuclear energy priority: Nuclear power energy-based convergence social-humanity analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woo, Tae Ho [Systemix Global Co. Ltd., Seoul, (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Following the industry expansion, the energy consumptions have increased steeply, which have produced the global warming in our lives by carbon production energies. This climate change has provoked significant natural disasters which have damaged to social as well economic matters. Considering the non-carbon production which is the major factor of global warming, nuclear energy is a newly spotlighted source as the green energy source. The climate change factor is affected by the carbon productions made by humans. Then, the nuclear energy increasing rate with the climate change factor affects to the temperature change which is expressed by annual anomaly. Fig. 6 is the protocol for climate change investigation incorporated with the nuclear industry where the climate factor like the temperature is an important index to find out the priority of nuclear energy. The increased environmental pollutions can give the expanding of nuclear energy due to the carbon gas of fossil fuels. This study showed the effectiveness of the nuclear energy by the simulations. The seasonal climate disaster like the very cold winter and very hot summer can increase the necessity of nuclear energy development which could appeal to the general public persons as well as the politicians. So, it is important for the nuclear energy manager to make people understand the importance of the nuclear energy comparing to the oil or coal fuels. The regeneration energy has been considered as the alternative source.

Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Johansson, D.J.A.; Lucas, P.L.; Weitzel, M.; Ahlgren, E.O.; Bazaz, A.B.; Chen, W.; den Elzen, M.G.J.; Ghosh, J.; Grahn, M.; Liang, Q.M.; Peterson, S.; Pradhan, B.K.; van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; Shukla, P.R.; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Wei, Y.M.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national

Modeling the water-energy nexus under changing energy market and climate conditions: a case study in the Italian Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Denaro, Simona; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Fumagalli, Elena; Giuliani, Matteo

2015-04-01

Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) have been already observed over the last few years and have produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies. This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system located in the Lake Como catchment. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e

Modeling and simulation of the energy use in an occupied residential building in cold climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olofsson, Thomas; Mahlia, T.M.I.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► An overview of the energy-characteristics based on illustrations in graphical figures. ► Figures to support identification and validation energy refurbishment measures. ► Emphasizing energy efficiency measures in early stage of building design. -- Abstract: In order to reduce the energy use in the building sector there is a demand for tools that can identify significant building energy performance parameters. In the work introduced in this paper presents a methodology, based on a simulation module and graphical figures, for interactive investigations of the building energy performance. The building energy use simulation program is called TEKLA and is using EN832 with an improved procedure in calculating the heat loss through the floor and the solar heat gain. The graphical figures are simple and are illustrating the savings based on retrofit measures and climate conditions. The accuracy of the TEKLA simulation was investigated on a typical single-family building in Sweden for a period of time in a space heating demand of relatively cold and mild climate. The model was found applicable for relative investigations. Further, the methodology was applied on a typical single family reference building. The climate data from three locations in Sweden were collected and a set of relevant measures were studied. The investigated examples illustrate how decisions in the early stages of the building design process can have decisive importance on the final building energy performance.

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

Science.gov (United States)

Conway, Declan; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Deryng, Delphine; Dorling, Steve; Krueger, Tobias; Landman, Willem; Lankford, Bruce; Lebek, Karen; Osborn, Tim; Ringler, Claudia; Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Dalin, Carole

2015-09-01

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven, for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and gross domestic product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose: the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water.

Energy for climate in Europe. An assessment of energy policies with climate-relevance. The LinkS Project.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruud, Audun; Knudsen, Joergen K.; Jacobsen, Gerd B.

2011-07-01

The LinkS project aims at providing a better linkage between perspectives and projections for global climate policy development and regional energy systems, by linking relevant modelling tools. The present report provides a specific focus on energy policy measures within the EY with climate relevance. The EU has in recent years aimed at reinforcing the linkage between the climate and energy policies, both at strategic and operational levels. The EU has pledged itself to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 8 percent by 2008-12 as compared to the 1990 level, and by 20 percent by 2020 as compared to the as compared to the 2005 level. The EU-27 reduced it GHG emissions with 11,3 percent in 1990-2008. The 2020-target, however, will require stronger efforts and energy is a key sector: The EU has decided that 20 percent of the energy must be renewable, and that the energy usage in 2020 is to be 20 per sent more efficient than in 2005. A number of policy strategies, measures and legislation are formulated to fulfil these targets. In order to highlight the potential of these measures, this report specifically addresses the drivers and limitations given the existing decision-making structures in the EU. The methodology employed is mainly qualitative, based on document analysis and a review of secondary literature. Climate-change mitigation is in principle based on supra-national decision-making, but unanimity among all Eu Member States is still required in critical issues related to the energy sector. In addition, the national follow-up of the targets constitutes a particular challenge. This is here illustrated by the cases of Denmark and Norway. Energy policy is also substantially characterised by several conflicting interests between the Member States, resulting in diverging policy priorities. It is, therefore, an open question whether the EU will succeed in fulfilling its 20/20/20 percent targets by 2020, and will be the actual role of energy within the climate

A control-oriented model for combined building climate comfort and aquifer thermal energy storage system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rostampour Samarin, Vahab; Bloemendal, J.M.; Jaxa-Rozen, M.; Keviczky, T.

2016-01-01

This paper presents a control-oriented model for combined building climate comfort and aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system. In particular, we first provide a description of building operational systems together with control framework variables. We then focus on the derivation of an

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M.; Kirshen, P.; Horwitz, J.

2005-01-01

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD (United States); Kirshen, P. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Anderson Hall, Medford, MA (United States); Horwitz, J. [Climatological Database Consultant, Binary Systems Software, Newton, MA (United States)

2005-07-01

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.

Potential energy consumption reduction of automotive climate control systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, Filip; Uddheim, Åsa; Dalenbäck, Jan-Olof

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Twenty-on energy saving measures for vehicle interior climate were evaluated. • Few single energy saving measures could reduce the energy use significantly. • The operation of the system in intermediate conditions determines the energy use. • Required heating/cooling of passenger compartment had small effect on energy use. - Abstract: In recent years fuel consumption of passenger vehicles has received increased attention by customers, the automotive industry, regulatory agencies and academia. One area which affect the fuel consumption is climate control systems. Twenty-one energy saving measures were evaluated regarding the total energy use for vehicle interior climate using simulation. Evaluated properties were heat flow into the passenger compartment, electrical and mechanical work. The simulation model included sub models of the passenger compartment, air-handling unit, Air Conditioning (AC) system, engine and engine cooling system. A real-world representative test cycle, which included tests in cold, intermediate and warm conditions, was used for evaluation. In general, few single energy saving measures could reduce the energy use significantly. The measures with most potential were increased blower efficiency with a reduction of 46% of the electrical work and increased AC-system disengage temperature with a reduction of 27% of the mechanical work. These results show that the operation of the climate control system had a large effect on the energy use, especially compared to the required heating and cooling of the passenger compartment. As a result energy saving measures need to address how heating and cooling is generated before reducing the heat flow into the passenger compartment.

Solutions-based climate change education for K-Gray: Renewable energy and energy efficiency

Science.gov (United States)

Petrone, C.

2017-12-01

Through the National Science Foundation-funded MADE CLEAR (www.madeclear.org) climate change education project's Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community, funds were received to collaboratively train teachers, informal educators, students, and university docents in climate change basics and solutions, specifically renewable energy and energy efficiency. In all, 10 docents, 50 classroom teachers, over 600 K-16 students, and several hundred science-interested citizens participated in programs and workshops lasting between one and seven hours. Using commercially available kits and other DIY projects, program participants used science content and engineering to develop models of wind turbines, wind mills, solar cells, solar cookers, solar stills, and wind-powered cars. Using thermal imaging cameras, Kill-a-Watt meters, "Carbon Food Print" kit, "Energy Matters" kit, and other tools, program participants learned about energy efficiency as not only a global climate change mitigation strategy, but also a way to save money. ICCE Community members and external partners, such as local electric cooperative personnel, university researchers, and state-sponsored energy efficiency program personnel, provided content presentations, discussions, and hands-on activities to program participants.

Modelling the energy and exergy utilisation of the Mexican non-domestic sector: A study by climatic regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García Kerdan, Iván; Morillón Gálvez, David; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul

2015-01-01

This paper presents the development of a bottom-up stock model to perform a holistic energy study of the Mexican non-domestic sector. The current energy and exergy flows are shown based on a categorisation by climatic regions with the aim of understanding the impact of local characteristics on regional efficiencies. Due to the limited data currently available, the study is supported by the development of a detailed archetype-based stock model using EnergyPlus as a first law analysis tool combined with an existing exergy analysis method. Twenty-one reference models were created to estimate the electric and gas use in the sector. The results indicate that sectoral energy and exergy annual input are 95.37 PJ and 94.28 PJ, respectively. Regional exergy efficiencies were found to be 17.8%, 16.6% and 23.2% for the hot-dry, hot-humid and temperate climates, respectively. The study concludes that significant potential for improvements still exists, especially in the cases of space conditioning, lighting, refrigeration, and cooking where most exergy destructions occur. Additionally, this work highlights that the method described may be further used to study the impact of large-scale refurbishments and promote national regulations and standards for sustainable buildings that takes into consideration energy and exergy indicators. - Highlights: • A bottom-up physics model was developed to analyse the Mexican commercial stock. • A detailed energy analysis by climate, buildings and end-uses is presented. • The Mexican non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 19.7%. • The lowest regional exergy efficiency is found at the hot-humid region with 16.6%. • By end use, the highest exergy destructions are caused by HVAC and lighting

Smart energy strategies. Meeting the climate change challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

This book published by the Energy Science Center (ESC) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich presents a wide selection of reports on how the challenge of dealing with climate change can be met. The 69 reports included cover a wide range of topics ranging from traffic modelling, biofuels and electrification of power trains, through demand-side management, electricity production and distribution and life cycle assessment, to the integration of wind power and renewable energy technologies. Also, climate policy matters are dealt with as are nano-technology applications in the energy area and the integration of energy conversion and production processes and waste management

Smart energy strategies. Meeting the climate change challenge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

This book published by the Energy Science Center (ESC) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich presents a wide selection of reports on how the challenge of dealing with climate change can be met. The 69 reports included cover a wide range of topics ranging from traffic modelling, biofuels and electrification of power trains, through demand-side management, electricity production and distribution and life cycle assessment, to the integration of wind power and renewable energy technologies. Also, climate policy matters are dealt with as are nano-technology applications in the energy area and the integration of energy conversion and production processes and waste management.

Energy and Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-06-15

Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

2015-04-01

Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining different energy sources together, their intermittent feature is smoothed, resulting to lower time variability of the produced power and to lower storage capacity required for balancing. In this study, we consider solar, wind and hydro energy sources in a 100% renewable Europe using a set of 12 regions following two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine wind and solar irradiance data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Vautard et al., 2014), temperature data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) and runoff from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC, 1999) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 30 years. The use of this set of 12 regions across Europe allows integrating knowledge about time and space variability for each different energy sources. We then assess the optimal share of each energy sources, aiming to decrease the time variability of the regional energy balance at different time scales as well as the energy storage required for balancing within each region. We also evaluate how energy transport among regions contributes for smoothing out both the energy balance and the storage requirement. The strengths of this study are i) to handle with run-of-the-river hydro power in addition to wind and solar energy sources and ii) to carry out this analysis

Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

2014-01-01

Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

Changing Climate in the MENA Means Changing Energy Needs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Fenech

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The leading authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC hasconcluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and will continue for centuries. The regionsin the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA have experienced numerous extreme climate events overthe past few years including the 2009 flooding in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; the 2005 dust stormin Al Asad, Iraq; water scarcity throughout the Arab MENA; and the rising sea levels on the Nile Deltacoast, Egypt. A climate baseline can be developed for regions in the MENA by locating climate stations inthe study area using observations made in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS. For projectionsof future climate, global climate models (GCMs, mathematical equations that describe the physics, fluidmotion and chemistry of the atmosphere, are the most advanced science available. The Climate ResearchLab at the University of Prince Edward Island has a dataset available to researchers, called the Climate,Ocean and Atmosphere Data Exchange (COADE, that provides easy access to the output from fortyglobal climate models used in the deliberations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s(IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 including monthly global climate model projections of future climatechange for a number of climate parameters including temperature and precipitation. Over the past 50years, climate changes in the MENA Region have led to increases in annual mean temperatures anddecreases in annual total precipitation. Applying all four greenhouse gas emission futures on a baseclimate normal of 1981-2010 to an ensemble of forty global climate models used in the Fifth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5 results in future temperatureincreases for the MENA Region ranging from 1.6 to 2.3 degrees Celsius, and in a range of futureprecipitation changes from reductions of 11 percent to increases of 36 percent

Bridging Research and Policy in Energy Transition. Contributing to shape energy and climate policies through economic modelling and analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paugam, Anne; Giraud, Gael; Thauvin, Eric

2015-11-01

The growth model of the 20. century relied heavily on the exploitation of fossil energy and natural resources extracted at low cost. Yet, the depletion of these resources, the upward trend of their prices over the long term and the consequences of their use for the environment and climate are now challenging the sustainability of this model. The notion of energy transition is directed at rethinking the use of energy resources and natural capital to reach an economic growth that mitigates negative environmental effects, without sacrificing the well-being of populations. Turning this idea into action is a challenging task. AFD has designed and funded research and technical cooperation projects in order to inform decisions on the short-term cost and long-term impact of measures designed to accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy regimes. Using tools for empirical economic analysis (particularly 'economy-energy' models), these projects have been carried out in several intervention settings, including South Africa, China and Mexico, which are discussed in this paper

Climate sensitivity of marine energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, G.P.; Wallace, A.R.

2005-01-01

Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversion: where the resource is constrained, production and economic performance may suffer; alternatively, stormier climates may create survival issues. Here, a relatively simple sensitivity study is used to quantify how changes in mean wind speed - as a proxy for wider climate change - influence wind and wave energy production and economics. (author)

Architecture, energy and climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauring, Michael

2010-01-01

Architecture has always had to relate to climatic conditions while providing shelter from the sun, the rain, the winds or the cold. This is a main purpose of buildings: To establish an indoor climate different from the outdoor. In the Nordic countries fuels for heating buildings has been a vital...... necessity almost as basic as food and water, and lack of wood has caused illness and migration - scarcity of energy is not a new topic either [Kjærgaard]. The new aspects are that human civilization is in danger of causing severe global climate changes, secondly that we can foresee using up the global non......-renewable reserves of oil, gas and uranium, both aspects capable of pulling the carpet under human civilization itself as we know it. The huge energy consumption especially in the northern hemisphere is closely linked to industrialization, and the response from those aware of energy and climate problems has in some...

The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Dommenget, D.

2013-12-01

The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

Climate-induced hotspots in surface energy fluxes from 1948 to 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheng Li; Liu Shuhua; Liu Heping

2010-01-01

Understanding how land surfaces respond to climate change requires knowledge of land-surface processes, which control the degree to which interannual variability and mean trends in climatic variables affect the surface energy budget. We use the latest version of the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), which is driven by the latest updated hybrid reanalysis-observation atmospheric forcing dataset constructed by Princeton University, to obtain global distributions of the surface energy budget from 1948 to 2000. We identify climate change hotspots and surface energy flux hotspots from 1948 to 2000. Surface energy flux hotspots, which reflect regions with strong changes in surface energy fluxes, reveal seasonal variations with strong signals in winter, spring, and autumn and weak ones in summer. Locations for surface energy flux hotspots are not, however, fully linked with those for climate change hotspots, suggesting that only in some regions are land surfaces more responsive to climate change in terms of interannual variability and mean trends.

Energy-balance climate models: stability experiments with a refined albedo and updated coefficients for infrared emission

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oerlemans, J.

1978-01-01

A zonally averaged' climate model of the energy-balance type is examined. Recently published satellite measurements were used to improve existing parameterizations of planetary albedo and outgoing radiation in terms of surface and sea level temperature. A realistic constant for the diffusion of

Energy and climate protection management, the key to higher energy efficiency in communities; Energie- und Klimaschutzmanagement. Der Schluessel zu mehr Energieeffizienz in Kommunen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-15

The brochure explains the dena energy and climate protection management concepts and presents tools for long-term reduction of energy consumption in communities. It presents valuable information for better organization of internal processes in community administrations and for the management of energy efficiency measures. The dena energy and climate protection management concept is developed in cooperation with model communities of different sizes since 2010. All interested communities can use this brochure as a guide for initiating effective climate protection measures.

Climate and Energy Policy in Hungary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Csete

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The energy problem has been redefined as one of the most important elements of sustainable development by climate change, adaptation and mitigation. Meeting energy needs is always a current issue in Hungary, irrespective of climate change because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, limited opportunities to replace them with domestic production, and the pollution associated with using fossil energy sources. Increasing effectiveness and saving energy can provide relatively short-term solutions with bearable costs and a relatively quick return on investment. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview about the climate and energy policy in Hungary with a special focus on the new energy strategy. Energy policy has a pivotal role in the economic recovery plan of the Hungarian government. The National Energy Strategy 2030 taking shape in Hungary takes climate policy into account with respect to adaptation and mitigation and lists renewable energy sources as the second most important tool for achieving strategic goals. As in most countries, it is also possible in Hungary to introduce climate strategy measures with zero social costs. The expedient management of climate change requires the combination of prevention, adaptation and dissemination initiatives. Strategies must meet a dual requirement: they must face the economic risks associated with premature measures, while also considering the adverse effects of delay.

Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

2004-05-01

Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net

The Paris-Nairobi climate initiative. Access to clean energy for all in Africa and countries vulnerable to climate change. Access to energy, sustainable development and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

The first part of this report highlights the importance of a universal access to energy, the role of public policies and renewable energies, the need to implement sustainable economic models for energy services, and indicates the major objectives and essential actions for these purposes. The second part outlines the weakness of electricity production in Africa, the degradation of the energy mix balance, the vulnerability to climate change, and the fact that Africa, like other countries vulnerable to climate change, possess huge and unexploited renewable energy resources (biomass, hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind). The third part proposes an approach to energy services by developing sustainable cooking, supplying energy to support rural development and to poles of economic growth, by developing sustainable cities (notably in transports and buildings), and by developing national and regional electricity grids. The last part addresses the issue of energy financing in developing countries

Climate - Greenhouse effect - Energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henriksen, Thormod; Kanestroem, Ingolf

2001-01-01

This book explains what is understood by climate systems and the concept of greenhouse effect. It also gives a survey of the world's energy consumption, energy reserves and renewable energy sources. Today, 75 - 80 per cent of the world's energy consumption involves fossil fuel. These are the sources that cause the CO 2 emissions. What are the possibilities of reducing the emissions? The world's population is increasing, and to provide food and a worthy life for everybody we have to use more energy. Where do we get this energy from without causing great climate changes and environmental changes? Should gas power plants be built in Norway? Should Swedish nuclear power plants be shut down, or is it advisable to concentrate on nuclear power, worldwide, this century, to reduce the CO 2 emissions until the renewable energy sources have been developed and can take over once the petroleum sources have been depleted? The book also discusses the global magnetic field, which protects against particle radiation from space and which gives rise to the aurora borealis. The book is aimed at students taking environmental courses in universities and colleges, but is also of interest for anybody concerned about climate questions, energy sources and living standard

The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

2013-08-01

A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Visschers, Vivianne H.M.; Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael

2011-01-01

Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed. - Highlights: → Explanatory model of determinants of nuclear power acceptance was studied in the representative survey. → Perceived benefits for a secure energy supply had the largest influence on acceptance. → Perceived benefits for the climate seemed less influential on acceptance. → Affect had a central role in the explanatory model. → Implications for communication about nuclear power plants are discussed.

Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Visschers, Vivianne H.M., E-mail: vvisschers@ethz.ch [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Consumer Behavior, Universitaetsstrasse 22 CHN J 75.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Consumer Behavior, Universitaetsstrasse 22 CHN J 75.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

2011-06-15

Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed. - Highlights: > Explanatory model of determinants of nuclear power acceptance was studied in the representative survey. > Perceived benefits for a secure energy supply had the largest influence on acceptance. > Perceived benefits for the climate seemed less influential on acceptance. > Affect had a central role in the explanatory model. > Implications for communication about nuclear power plants are discussed.

Modeling the intersections of Food, Energy, and Water in climate-vulnerable Ethiopia with an application to small-scale irrigation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Y.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.

2017-12-01

Africa is home to some of the most climate vulnerable populations in the world. Energy and agricultural development have diverse impacts on the region's food security and economic well-being from the household to the national level, particularly considering climate variability and change. Our ultimate goal is to understand coupled Food-Energy-Water (FEW) dynamics across spatial scales in order to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes to FEW development strategies in Ethiopia. We are developing bottom-up and top-down multi-scale models, spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture the FEW linkages across communities and climatic adaptation zones. The focus of this presentation is the sub-national scale multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial-equilibrium model with coupled food and energy sector for Ethiopia. With fixed large-scale economic, demographic, and resource factors from the national scale computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and inferences of behavior parameters from the local scale agent-based model (ABM), the MME studies how shocks such as drought (crop failure) and development of resilience technologies would influence FEW system at a sub-national scale. The MME model is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players. It includes production, storage, and consumption of food and energy at spatially disaggregated zones, and transportation in between with endogenously modeled infrastructure. The aggregated players for each zone have different roles such as crop producers, storage managers, and distributors, who make decisions according to their own but interdependent objective functions. The food and energy supply chain across zones is therefore captured. Ethiopia is dominated by rain-fed agriculture with only 2% irrigated farmland. Small-scale irrigation has been promoted as a resilience technology that could potentially play a critical role in food security and economic well-being in

An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Robinson

2010-04-01

Full Text Available In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.

Climate Leadership webinar on Integrating Energy and Climate Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Allergan, a multi-specialty healthcare company and pharmaceutical manufacturer, discusses how it manages climate and energy risks, how these areas are linked, and how energy and climate management strategies pervade critical business decisions.

Health, Energy Efficiency and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change is becoming a driving force for improving energy efficiency because saving energy can help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. However, it is important to balance energy saving measures with ventilation...

Resolution on the program energy-climate; Resolution sur le paquet energie-climat

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

This document presents the resolutions proposed in the resolution proposition n. 1261 and concerning the european Commission program on the energy policies and the climate change. Twelve resolution are presented on the energy sources development, the energy efficiency, the energy economy and the carbon taxes. (A.L.B.)

Energy and Development. A Modelling Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Ruijven, B.J.

2008-01-01

policies have an important role. For instance, low energy taxes and subsidies in developing countries limit the opportunities to promote alternative energy options. A final issue in this thesis is the impact of the changing development context - depletion of fossil fuels and climate change - on the economic development of low-income regions. We developed a stylized population-economy-energy-climate model (SUSCLIME) in which automated agents can take policy-decisions and develop strategies to cope with resource depletion and climate change. From preliminary model experiments it appears that developing countries are more vulnerable to both resource depletion and climate change. A co-benefit of a long-term focus on avoiding climate change is that it also slows down fossil resource depletion. A short-term focus to reduce impacts from depletion of endogenous fossil resources has probably not much synergy with climate policy because imported fossil energy (or coal) is more attractive than developing alternatives.

New Energy Utility Business Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, V.

2016-01-01

Recently a lot of big changes happened in the power sector: energy efficiency and renewable energy sources are quickly progressing, distributed or decentralised generation of electricity is expanding, climate change requires reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and price volatility and incertitude of fossil fuel supply is common. Those changes have led to obsolescence of vertically integrated business models which have dominated in energy utility organisations for a hundred years and new business models are being introduced. Those models take into account current changes in the power sector and enable a wider application of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially for consumers, with the decentralisation of electricity generation and complying with the requirements of climate and environment preservation. New business models also solve the questions of financial compensations for utilities because of the reduction of centralised energy generation while contributing to local development and employment.(author).

Climate change and energy: The implications for the Spanish case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Arriaga, J. I.

2007-01-01

This paper examines the mutual implications between the climate change problem and the actual energy-at-a-crossroads situation of the unsustainable world energy model. The implications for the Spanish case are studied as a case example. The paper provides a brief review of the scientific evidence on climate change, analyzes the causes of the present energy dilemma and characterizes the problem to be addressed. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all countries, with such a diversity of interests. The paper also exposes the most plausible framework for the future climate regime, the basic components of such a regime, the role to be played by the major stake holders and some guidelines for future negotiations. (Author)

Multiple regression models for energy use in air-conditioned office buildings in different climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Liu Dalong; Tsang, C.L.

2010-01-01

An attempt was made to develop multiple regression models for office buildings in the five major climates in China - severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, mild, and hot summer and warm winter. A total of 12 key building design variables were identified through parametric and sensitivity analysis, and considered as inputs in the regression models. The coefficient of determination R 2 varies from 0.89 in Harbin to 0.97 in Kunming, indicating that 89-97% of the variations in annual building energy use can be explained by the changes in the 12 parameters. A pseudo-random number generator based on three simple multiplicative congruential generators was employed to generate random designs for evaluation of the regression models. The difference between regression-predicted and DOE-simulated annual building energy use are largely within 10%. It is envisaged that the regression models developed can be used to estimate the likely energy savings/penalty during the initial design stage when different building schemes and design concepts are being considered.

File 'Energy-climate actions in Sweden'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

In a first part, this publication briefly presents some basic data and information on Sweden (geography, population, economy, administrative organisation, powers of local authorities, local finances), the Swedish 'energy profile' (consumption, intensity, imports and exports), greenhouse gas emissions (total and per sector), and the energy-climate strategy (impacts of climate change, national climatic strategy, national measures, action framework for local authorities). The second part addresses one of these action frameworks, the Klimatkommunernas network. It describes this network, its objectives, and possibilities for communities to join it. It describes its activities: information, publication of a strategic document of climate-energy actions for municipalities, examples of projects. The third part presents experiments performed by different local communities (Kristianstad, Vaexjoe, Malmoe, and Lund). For each of them are presented: the energy strategy (objectives, strategy, adaptation, energy-climate follow-up, application and actual measures), and some specific measures. These specific examples can be integrated systems based on biogas and biomass, a zero fossil fuel objective with the use of renewable energies for heat and cold production, for electricity production and to improve energy efficiency, to promote green fuels in transports, to reduce the impact of transports on climate, a sustainable town planning, environmental management. Some features are then highlighted in the adopted approach for these examples: a systemic, collaborative, participative and communicative approach

Evaluation of energy efficiency in street lighting: model proposition considering climate variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amaury Caruzzo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper assesses the impacts of climate variability on efficient electricity consumption in street lighting in Brazil. The Climate Demand Method (CDM was applied, and the energy savings achieved by Brazil’s National Efficient Street Lighting Program (ReLuz in 2005 were calculated, considering the monthly climatology of sunshine duration, disaggregated by county in Brazil. The total energy savings in street lighting in 2005 were estimated at 63 GWh/year or 1.39% higher than the value determined by ReLuz/Eletrobrás and there was a 15 MW reduction in demand in Brazil, considering the nearly 393,000 points in ReLuz served in 2005. The results indicate that, besides the difference in latitude, climate variability in different county increases the daily usage of street lighting up to 19%. Furthermore, Brazil’s large size means that seasonality patterns in energy savings are not homogeneous, and there is a correlation between the monthly variability in sunshine duration and the latitude of mesoregions. The CDM was also shown to be suitable for ranking mesoregions with the highest levels of energy saving lighting.

Climate sensitivity of glaciers in southern Norway: application of an energy-balance model to Nigardsbreen, Hellstugubreen and Alfotbreen

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oerlemans, J.

1992-01-01

Three glaciers in southern Norway, with very different massbalance characteristics, are studied with an energy-balance model of the ice/snow surface. The model simulates the observed mass-balance profiles in a satisfactory way, and can thus be used with some confidence in a study of climate

Energy system modelling and GIS to build an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for Gauteng Province, South Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomaschek, Jan; Kober, Ralf; Fahl, Ulrich; Lozynskyy, Yuriy

2016-01-01

South Africa and specifically its economically dominant province of Gauteng aim to reduce their influence on climate change. Especially the transport sector is seen as one of the key drivers of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper describes the methodology used to combine the application of two models in order to provide a basis for informed policy recommendation for GHG mitigation. The TEMT model provides real world emission factors adapted to local conditions in Gauteng for numerous vehicle technology concepts. Those data feed into the TIMES-GEECO energy system model which identifies future technology use for different alternative scenarios. Finally, the scenario results are illustrated spatially using a GIS programme. The results of the scenario analysis show that under implemented policies GHG emissions in Gauteng are likely to increase substantially. Pollutant emissions are currently high as a result of a comparably old vehicle fleet. The spatial display of these results shows where the traffic network is concentrated and the location of so-called emission hot-spots. Energy efficient policies for the transport sector of Gauteng can achieve a significant reduction of emissions and energy consumption. Alternative powertrains and the use of locally produced biofuels can play a significant role in such policies. - Highlights: • Two models to assess the transport sector have been developed. • The methodology covers the energy system and locational information. • Application to Gauteng to provide input for a Climate Protection Concept. • Energy efficient polices will help to significantly reduce transport emissions. • Local renewable resources and efficient powertrains should be part of this policy.

Climate change and energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hengeveld, H.G.

1991-01-01

Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bahn, Olivier; Edwards, Neil R.; Knutti, Reto; Stocker, Thomas F.

2011-01-01

Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. - Research Highlights: → Preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction. → This could be achieved through strong changes in the energy mix. → Similar results would apply to any climate system tipping points.

The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

2017-06-01

Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

Point Climat no. 26 'Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans at the heart of the debate on the energy transition'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bordier, Cecile; Leseur, Alexia

2013-01-01

Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Briefs' presents, in a few pages, hot topics in climate change policy. This issue addresses the following points: On the eve of the introduction of the environmental assessment procedure for planning documents, almost all Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans have now been published. This Climate Brief assesses regional climate strategies, which rely on significant commitment from those involved, including citizens by changing their behaviour, companies by improving their energy efficiency and the banking sector through financial support. Identification of these challenges and areas for action will feed into the national debate on energy transition which began last autumn

State-of-the-Art Climate Predictions for Energy Climate Services

Science.gov (United States)

Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Davis, Melanie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube

2015-04-01

Climate predictions tailored to the energy sector represent the cutting edge in climate sciences to forecast wind power generation. At seasonal time scales, current energy practices use a deterministic approach based on retrospective climatology, but climate predictions have recently been shown to provide additional value. For this reason, probabilistic climate predictions of near surface winds can allow end users to take calculated, precautionary action with a potential cost savings to their operations. As every variable predicted in a coupled model forecast system, the prediction of wind speed is affected by biases. To overcome this, two different techniques for the post-processing of ensemble forecasts are considered: a simple bias correction and a calibration method. The former is based on the assumption that the reference and predicted distributions are well approximated by a normal distribution. The latter is a calibration technique which inflates the model variance, and the inflation of the ensemble is required in order to obtain a reliable outcome. Both methods use the "one-year out" cross-validated mode, and they provide corrected forecasts with improved statistical properties. The impact of these bias corrections on the quality of the ECMWF S4 predictions of near surface wind speed during winter is explored. To offer a comprehensive picture of the post-processing effect on the forecast quality of the system, it is necessary to use several scoring measures: rank histograms, reliability diagrams and skill maps. These tools are essential to assess different aspects of the forecasts, and to observe changes in their properties when the two methods are applied. This study reveals that the different techniques to correct the predictions produce a statistically consistent ensemble. However, the operations performed on the forecasts decrease their skill which correspond to an increase in the uncertainty. Therefore, even though the bias correction is fundamental

An energy-balance model with multiply-periodic and quasi-chaotic free oscillations. [for climate forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharya, K.; Ghil, M.

1979-01-01

A slightly modified version of the one-dimensional time-dependent energy-balance climate model of Ghil and Bhattacharya (1978) is presented. The albedo-temperature parameterization has been reformulated and the smoothing of the temperature distribution in the tropics has been eliminated. The model albedo depends on time-lagged temperature in order to account for finite growth and decay time of continental ice sheets. Two distinct regimes of oscillatory behavior which depend on the value of the albedo-temperature time lag are considered.

Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mirza, M. [Environment Canada, Fredericton, NB (Canada). Adaptation and Impacts Research Division

2007-07-01

The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs.

Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirza, M.

2007-01-01

The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs

Climate sensitivity of marine energy

OpenAIRE

Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

2005-01-01

Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversi...

Water-Energy Nexus Challenges & Opportunities in the Arabian Peninsula under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Flores-Lopez, F.; Yates, D. N.; Galaitsi, S.; Binnington, T.; Dougherty, W.; Vinnaccia, M.; Glavan, J. C.

2016-12-01

Demand for water in the GCC countries relies mainly on fossil groundwater resources and desalination. Satisfying water demand requires a great deal of energy as it treats and moves water along the supply chain from sources, through treatment processes, and ultimately to the consumer. Hence, there is an inherent connection between water and energy and with climate change, the links between water and energy are expected to become even stronger. As part of AGEDI's Local, National, and Regional Climate Change Programme, a study of the water-energy nexus of the countries in the Arabian Peninsula was implemented. For water, WEAP models both water demand - and its main drivers - and water supply, simulating policies, priorities and preferences. For energy, LEAP models both energy supply and demand, and is able to capture the impacts of low carbon development strategies. A coupled WEAP-LEAP model was then used to evaluate the future performance of the energy-water system under climate change and policy scenarios. The coupled models required detailed data, which were obtained through literature reviews and consultations with key stakeholders in the region. As part of this process, the outputs of both models were validated for historic periods using existing data The models examined 5 policy scenarios of different futures of resource management to the year 2060. A future under current management practices with current climate and a climate projection based on the RCP8.5; a High Efficiency scenario where each country gradually implements policies to reduce the consumption of water and electricity; a Natural Resource Protection scenario with resource efficiency and phasing out of groundwater extraction and drastic reduction of fossil fuel usage in favor of solar; and an Integrated Policy scenario that integrates the prior two policy scenarios Water demands can mostly be met in any scenario through supply combinations of groundwater, desalination and wastewater reuse, with some

Climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector : workshop report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

This workshop on climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector was conducted in order to develop a climate change work plan for the Council of Energy Ministers (CEM) as well as to develop awareness and dialogue within Canada's energy sector. Industry members and government officials identified findings from recent assessment reports on climate change adaptation and discussed ways in which the international oil and gas industry is currently adapting its operations and technologies to ensure continuing safety and risk mitigation. The use of hydrological models to forecast the potential impacts of climate change was discussed, and the drivers of climate change adaptation were reviewed. A total of 26 topics were identified, 13 of which were prioritized for group discussions based on their impact and urgency. The following 5 topics were finally identified as top priority topics: (1) climate change adaptation science, (2) co-ordinated local, provincial, national, and international policies, (3) information sharing and knowledge transfer, (4) aging infrastructure and increasing demand, and (5) market mechanisms for adaptation. Four presentations were given during the initial portion of the workshop. 4 tabs., 1 fig

Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

Science.gov (United States)

Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

2009-04-01

An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

Plugging the Energy Efficiency Gap with Climate Finance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

The role of International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and the Green Climate Fund to realise the potential of energy efficiency in developing countries. This report examines the current role of climate finance in funding EE projects and the potential to channel funds to relevant EE projects in developing countries under the new Green Climate Fund (GCF). The objectives of the report are to examine: 1) the share of climate finance currently being channelled to energy efficiency measures, and 2) how the design of climate finance can better facilitate energy efficiency projects. Improving energy efficiency (EE) can deliver a range of benefits such as improved air quality, enhanced economic competitiveness and, at the national scale, a higher degree of energy security. Significant improvements in energy efficiency in developing countries could provide greater opportunity for economic growth while also providing broader access to energy and related services even from limited energy resources. However, several barriers limit the scaling-up of funding of EE projects in developing countries (some are common also to developed countries). The report focuses primarily on public climate finance flows from 'north' to 'south', probing the current use of funds from multi-lateral development banks (MDBs), bi-lateral financial institutions (BFIs) and carbon markets for energy efficiency projects and the design of the future climate financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund to encourage energy efficiency improvements in developing countries.

Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Demosthenous

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

2014-12-01

Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Local authorities in the context of energy and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comodi, Gabriele; Cioccolanti, Luca; Polonara, Fabio; Brandoni, Caterina

2012-01-01

Several measures to boost the energy system towards a low-carbon future can be planned and implemented by local authorities, such as energy-saving initiatives in public buildings and lighting, information campaigns, and renewable energy pilot projects. This work analyzes the public administration's role in energy and climate policies by assessing carbon-lowering measures for properties and services managed directly by local governments in central Italy. Both short- and long-term schemes were considered in the analysis of local authority energy strategies. The MARKAL-TIMES energy model was applied to long-term energy planning to assess the effect of low-carbon initiatives on public-sector energy consumption up to 2030. Two energy scenarios were built, i.e. a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario based on current or soon-to-be-adopted national policies, and an Exemplary Public Scenario (EPS) including some further virtuous local policies suggested by local authorities. Our results show that a 20% primary energy reduction can be achieved with respect to the baseline year by means of short-term energy policies (5-year time span), while a primary energy saving of about 30% can be reached with longer-term energy policies (25-year time span), even after taking the increase in energy demand into account. This work goes to show the part that local governments can play in energy policy and their contribution to the achievement of climate goals. - Highlights: ► Assessment of Local Administration (LA) role in energy and climate policy. ► Analysis of both short-term and long-term carbon lowering measures. ► Use of MARKAL-TIMES model generator for long-term energy analysis. ► 20% primary energy reduction can be reached with short-term energy policies. ► 30% primary energy reduction can be reached with longer-term energy policies.

A climate responsive urban design tool: a platform to improve energy efficiency in a dry hot climate

Science.gov (United States)

El Dallal, Norhan; Visser, Florentine

2017-09-01

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, new urban developments should address the climatic conditions to improve outdoor comfort and to reduce the energy consumption of buildings. This article describes a design tool that supports climate responsive design for a dry hot climate. The approach takes the climate as an initiator for the conceptual urban form with a more energy-efficient urban morphology. The methodology relates the different passive strategies suitable for major climate conditions in MENA region (dry-hot) to design parameters that create the urban form. This parametric design approach is the basis for a tool that generates conceptual climate responsive urban forms so as to assist the urban designer early in the design process. Various conceptual scenarios, generated by a computational model, are the results of the proposed platform. A practical application of the approach is conducted on a New Urban Community in Aswan (Egypt), showing the economic feasibility of the resulting urban form and morphology, and the proposed tool.

ESCAPE. Energy Security and ClimAte Policy Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kessels, J.R.; Bakker, S.J.A.

2005-05-01

Climate change and energy supply security policy are currently not integrated in most countries, despite possible synergies. The ESCAPE approach suggests that linking climate change policy with security of energy supply could improve climate change policy at both a national and international level. The report explores the interaction between policies of energy security and climate change and the options of inclusion of energy security issues into national and international post-2012 climate negotiations. It emphasises the importance of the US in this regard and takes a close look at US energy policy documents. It appears that current US energy policy is not directed towards reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuel, even though the government has a strong preference for this. This study shows that measures to reduce import dependency are mostly synergetic with climate policy and gives some options that can be implemented. On an international level, linkages of energy security into post-2012 climate policy may be possible in sectoral bottom-up approaches or technology frameworks. As well, inclusion of a security of supply criterion in international emission trading instruments may provide potential benefits

Green paper on energy and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peters, R.; Whitmore, J.; Shariff, N.

2005-11-01

This green paper was created by the Canadian Environmental Network to initiate a dialogue on climate change and energy issues. Recommendations for energy strategies for Canada beyond 2012 were presented. An overview of recent climate science was presented, as well as various stabilization scenarios needed to prevent further climate change. A review of global energy trends working for and against action to prevent climate change was also provided. It was suggested that the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations can only be achieved when the United States and large developing economies such as China, India and Brazil transform themselves into renewable-energy based economies. Renewable energy and energy efficiency must play a central role in future climate change regimes. It was suggested that nuclear power cannot be considered as an option to reduce GHGs due to its high cost, and on-going public concerns over long-term waste disposal, fuel-cycle health and safety. A viable global framework for stabilizing GHG concentrations built on the current regimes of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol was recommended. It was suggested that richer industrialized nations must take the lead by pursuing absolute reductions and providing assistance to developing nations for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. It was recommended that developing nations should contribute to global mitigation efforts by pursuing low-carbon intensity development paths, and that effective climate change policies must address the economic barriers faced by developing nations. Other recommendations included a regulatory regime for major energy producers and users incorporating progressively lower GHG emission targets; the elimination of all subsidies for the fossil fuel and nuclear fuel-cycle and power industries; the adoption of a national renewable energy strategy; the implementation of a national energy conservation and efficiency

Climate saver atomic energy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-12-01

According to the Schleswig-Holstein Land government nuclear power phaseout is compatible with measures designed to protect world climate. Only efforts aimed at quickly reducing energy demand by means of thermal insulation, energy conservation techniques, cogeneration systems and application of renewable energies are necessary. The Schleswig-Holstein energy concept is given as an example of making possible a worldwide carbon dioxide reduction. (DG) [de

Climate change impacts on wind energy resources in northern Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Kjellstroem, E.

2005-01-01

Energy is a fundamental human need. Heat, light and transport for individuals combined with the needs of industry have created a demand for energy which for the last 100-200 years has been met largely through consumption of fossil fuels leading to altered atmospheric composition and modification of the global climate. These effects will be realised on local scales affecting not just temperature and precipitation but also wind, radiation and other parameters. Annual mean wind speeds and wind energy density over northern Europe were significantly higher at the end of twentieth century than during the middle portion of that century, with the majority of the change being focused on the winter season. To address questions regarding possible future wind climates we employ dynamical and empirical downscaling techniques that seek to take coarse resolution output from General Circulation Models (GCM), run to provide scenarios of future climate, and develop higher resolution regional wind climates. Analyses of the wind climate during the historical record indicate that both the dynamical approach and the empirical approach are capable of generating accurate, robust and quantitative assessments of the wind climate and energy density in northern Europe, and hence that they may be of great utility to those seeking financing for, or risk management of, wind farms in the face of climate uncertainty. The synthesis of application of these downscaling tools to climate projections for northern Europe is that there is no evidence of major changes in the wind energy resource. However, more research is required to quantify the uncertainties in developing these projections and to reduce those uncertainties. Further work should also be conducted to assess the validity of these downscaling approaches in other geographical locations. (BA)

Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrian J Das

Full Text Available Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1 drought stress, or (2 the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

2009-01-01

In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

The energy transition in a climate-constrained world: Regional vs. global optimization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brede, M.; de Vries, B.

2013-01-01

In this paper we present a stylized economy-energy-climate model and discuss the role of the atmosphere, fossil fuels, and a stock of accumulated knowledge about renewable energy technologies in collaboratively and competitively managed worlds. The model highlights that assumptions about the 'degree

Climate information for the wind energy industry in the Mediterranean Region

Science.gov (United States)

Calmanti, Sandro; Davis, Melanie; Schmidt, Peter; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

2013-04-01

Mediterranean Region as a tool for assessing the impact of changes in climate patterns on the energy output of wind power plants. Subsequently, we will give here a brief overview of these techniques as well as first results related to wind projections for different sites across the Mediterranean Region. We will highlight that regional climate models have a large potential for enhancing the quality of climate projections in the presence of complex orography and in the proximity of coastal areas.

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Production, Distribution, and Consumption in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Tereshin, A. G.; Fedotova, E. V.

2018-05-01

An assessment of the overall impact of the observed and expected climatic changes on energy production, distribution, and consumption in Russia is presented. Climate model results of various complexity and evaluation data on the vulnerability of various energy production sectors to climate change are presented. It is shown that, due to the increase of air temperature, the efficiency of electricity production at thermal and nuclear power plants declines. According to the climate model results, the production of electricity at TPPs and NPPs by 2050 could be reduced by 6 billion kW h due to the temperature increase. At the same time, as a result of simulation, the expected increase in the rainfall amount and river runoff in Russia by 2050 could lead to an increase in the output of HPP by 4-6% as compared with the current level, i.e., by 8 billion kW h. For energy transmission and distribution, the climate warming will mean an increase in transmission losses, which, according to estimates, may amount to approximately 1 billion kW h by 2050. The increase of air temperature in summer will require higher energy consumption for air conditioning, which will increase by approximately 6 billion kW h by 2050. However, in total, the optimal energy consumption in Russia, corresponding to the postindustrial level, will decrease by 2050 by approximately 150 billion kW h as a result of climate- induced changes. The maximum global warming impact is focused on the heat demand sector. As a result of a decrease in the heating degree-days by 2050, the need for space heating is expected to fall by 10-15%, which will cause a fuel conservation sufficient for generating approximately 140 billion kW h of electricity. Hence, a conclusion about the positive direct impact of climate change on the Russia's energy sector follows, which is constituted in the additional available energy resource of approximately 300 billion kW h per year.

Modelling interactions of carbon dioxide, forests, and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxmoore, R.J.; Baldocchi, D.D.

1994-01-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising and forests and climate is changing exclamation point This combination of fact and premise may be evaluated at a range of temporal and spatial scales with the aid of computer simulators describing the interrelationships between forest vegetation, litter and soil characteristics, and appropriate meteorological variables. Some insights on the effects of climate on the transfers of carbon and the converse effect of carbon transfer on climate are discussed as a basis for assessing the significance of feedbacks between vegetation and climate under conditions of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Three main classes of forest models are reviewed. These are physiologically-based models, forest succession simulators based on the JABOWA model, and ecosystem-carbon budget models that use compartment transfer rates with empirically estimated coefficients. Some regression modeling approaches are also outlined. Energy budget models applied to forests and grasslands are also reviewed. This review presents examples of forest models; a comprehensive discussion of all available models is not undertaken

Does climate policy lead to relocation with adverse effects for GHG emissions or not? A first assessment of the spillovers of climate policy for energy intensive industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oikonomou, V.; Patel, M.; Worrell, E.

2004-12-01

Energy-intensive industries play a special role in climate policy. World-wide, industry is responsible for about 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. The emission intensity makes these industries an important target for climate policy. At the same time these industries are particularly vulnerable if climate policy would lead to higher energy costs, and if they would be unable to offset these increased costs. The side effects of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries are typically referred to as 'spillovers'. Negative spillovers reduce the effectiveness of a climate policy, while positive spillovers increase its effectiveness. This paper provides a review of the literature on the spillover effects of climate policy for carbon intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased share of non-Annex 1 countries. However, this trend is primarily driven by demand growth, and there is no empirical evidence for a role of environmental policy in these development patterns. In contrast, climate models do show a strong carbon leakage of emissions from these industries. Even though that climate policy may have a more profound impact than previous environmental policies, the results of the modelling are ambiguous. The energy and carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries is rapidly declining in most developing countries, and reducing the 'gap' between industrialized and developing countries. Still, considerable potential for emission reduction exists, both in developing and industrialized countries. Technology development is likely to deliver further reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions. Despite the potential for positive spillovers in the energy-intensive industries, none of the models used in the analysis of spillovers of climate policies has an endogenous representation of technological change for the energy-intensive industries. This underlines the need for a better understanding of

Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

2004-01-01

There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling toolsfor examining the impact of climate change...... on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: - Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period(1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations...... and reanalysis data products. - The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 – December 30, 1990)based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change...

Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

2007-01-01

This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design...... of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme...

Hybrid modeling to support energy-climate policy: Effects of feed-in tariffs to promote renewable energy in Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proença, Sara; St Aubyn, Miguel

2013-01-01

Feed-in tariffs have been the main policy instrument applied in Portugal for the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources under the EU Directives on energy and climate regulation. In this paper, we provide an empirical impact assessment of the economic and environmental effects of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. Impact assessment of policy instruments plays a crucial role on decision-making process. For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium modeling approach, which represents a reliable tool to analyze the complex interactions between economic, energy, and environmental issues related to energy policies. Numerical simulations confirm the empirical evidence that the FITs policy implemented by Portugal was both an effective and a cost-efficient way to increase the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources and thus to achieve the national RES-E target of 45% in 2010. Results show relatively modest macroeconomic impacts indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. From an environmental perspective, the deployment of renewable energy source results in significant carbon emissions reductions. - Highlights: ► We provide an impact assessment of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. ► For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium model. ► Portugal's FITs policy proved to be a cost-efficient way to increase generation of renewable electricity. ► Results show relatively modest macroeconomic effects indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. ► The deployment of renewable energy sources results in significant carbon emission reductions

Biomass Energy | Climate Neutral Research Campuses | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Energy Biomass Energy Biomass from local sources can be key to a campus climate action plan biomass may fit into your campus climate action plan. Campus Options Considerations Sample Project Related biomass fuels for energy does not add to the net amount of carbon in the atmosphere. This is because the

High-resolution climate modelling of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wessem, J.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/413533085

2016-01-01

In this thesis we have used a high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2.3) to simulate the present-day climate (1979-2014) of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. We have evaluated the model results with several observations, such as in situ surface energy balance (SEB)

Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

Science.gov (United States)

Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.

2008-01-01

There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5

Climate models with delay differential equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Keane, Andrew; Krauskopf, Bernd; Postlethwaite, Claire M

2017-11-01

A fundamental challenge in mathematical modelling is to find a model that embodies the essential underlying physics of a system, while at the same time being simple enough to allow for mathematical analysis. Delay differential equations (DDEs) can often assist in this goal because, in some cases, only the delayed effects of complex processes need to be described and not the processes themselves. This is true for some climate systems, whose dynamics are driven in part by delayed feedback loops associated with transport times of mass or energy from one location of the globe to another. The infinite-dimensional nature of DDEs allows them to be sufficiently complex to reproduce realistic dynamics accurately with a small number of variables and parameters. In this paper, we review how DDEs have been used to model climate systems at a conceptual level. Most studies of DDE climate models have focused on gaining insights into either the global energy balance or the fundamental workings of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. For example, studies of DDEs have led to proposed mechanisms for the interannual oscillations in sea-surface temperature that is characteristic of ENSO, the irregular behaviour that makes ENSO difficult to forecast and the tendency of El Niño events to occur near Christmas. We also discuss the tools used to analyse such DDE models. In particular, the recent development of continuation software for DDEs makes it possible to explore large regions of parameter space in an efficient manner in order to provide a "global picture" of the possible dynamics. We also point out some directions for future research, including the incorporation of non-constant delays, which we believe could improve the descriptive power of DDE climate models.

Climate models with delay differential equations

Science.gov (United States)

Keane, Andrew; Krauskopf, Bernd; Postlethwaite, Claire M.

2017-11-01

A fundamental challenge in mathematical modelling is to find a model that embodies the essential underlying physics of a system, while at the same time being simple enough to allow for mathematical analysis. Delay differential equations (DDEs) can often assist in this goal because, in some cases, only the delayed effects of complex processes need to be described and not the processes themselves. This is true for some climate systems, whose dynamics are driven in part by delayed feedback loops associated with transport times of mass or energy from one location of the globe to another. The infinite-dimensional nature of DDEs allows them to be sufficiently complex to reproduce realistic dynamics accurately with a small number of variables and parameters. In this paper, we review how DDEs have been used to model climate systems at a conceptual level. Most studies of DDE climate models have focused on gaining insights into either the global energy balance or the fundamental workings of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. For example, studies of DDEs have led to proposed mechanisms for the interannual oscillations in sea-surface temperature that is characteristic of ENSO, the irregular behaviour that makes ENSO difficult to forecast and the tendency of El Niño events to occur near Christmas. We also discuss the tools used to analyse such DDE models. In particular, the recent development of continuation software for DDEs makes it possible to explore large regions of parameter space in an efficient manner in order to provide a "global picture" of the possible dynamics. We also point out some directions for future research, including the incorporation of non-constant delays, which we believe could improve the descriptive power of DDE climate models.

Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

2015-01-01

Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Nadiga, B. T.; Urban, N. M.

2016-12-01

Earth system models (ESM) are the most comprehensive tools we have to study climate change and develop climate projections. However, the computational infrastructure required and the cost incurred in running such ESMs precludes direct use of such models in conjunction with a wide variety of tools that can further our understanding of climate. Here we are referring to tools that range from dynamical systems tools that give insight into underlying flow structure and topology to tools that come from various applied mathematical and statistical techniques and are central to quantifying stability, sensitivity, uncertainty and predictability to machine learning tools that are now being rapidly developed or improved. Our approach to facilitate the use of such models is to analyze output of ESM experiments (cf. CMIP) using a range of simpler models that consider integral balances of important quantities such as mass and/or energy in a Bayesian framework.We highlight the use of this approach in the context of the uptake of heat by the world oceans in the ongoing global warming. Indeed, since in excess of 90% of the anomalous radiative forcing due greenhouse gas emissions is sequestered in the world oceans, the nature of ocean heat uptake crucially determines the surface warming that is realized (cf. climate sensitivity). Nevertheless, ESMs themselves are never run long enough to directly assess climate sensitivity. So, we consider a range of models based on integral balances--balances that have to be realized in all first-principles based models of the climate system including the most detailed state-of-the art climate simulations. The models range from simple models of energy balance to those that consider dynamically important ocean processes such as the conveyor-belt circulation (Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and eddy mixing. Results from Bayesian analysis of such models using

The forest products industry at an energy/climate crossroads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, Marilyn A.; Baek, Youngsun

2010-01-01

Transformational energy and climate policies are being debated worldwide that could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. Because woody biomass can produce alternative transportation fuels, low-carbon electricity, and numerous other 'green' products in addition to traditional paper and lumber commodities, the future use of forest resources is highly uncertain. Using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), this paper assesses the future of the forest products industry under three possible U.S. policy scenarios: (1) a national renewable electricity standard, (2) a national policy of carbon constraints, and (3) incentives for industrial energy efficiency. In addition, we discuss how these policy scenarios might interface with the recently strengthened U.S. renewable fuels standards. The principal focus is on how forest products including residues might be utilized under different policy scenarios, and what such market shifts might mean for electricity and biomass prices, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results underscore the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and climate policies in order to moderate electricity and biomass price escalation while strengthening energy security and reducing CO 2 emissions. - Research highlights: →Transformational energy and climate policies such as a national renewable electricity standard, a national policy of carbon constraints, and incentives for industrial energy efficiency could have significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. →Each policy scenario reduces CO 2 emissions over time, compared to the business-as-usual forecast, with the carbon constrained policy producing the largest decline. As a package, the three policies together could cut CO 2 emissions from the electricity sector by an estimated 41% by 2030. →This study underscores the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and

Climate, Energy, Water, Land and the Spill-Over Effect (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Tidwell, V. C.; Backus, G.; Bier, A.; Brune, N.; Brown, T. J.

2013-12-01

Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate stress than the developed world due to poorly managed natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. When fragile states are stressed these vulnerabilities are often manifest in a 'domino effect' of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship-followed by desperate emigration, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. The impact is not limited to a single nation or region but 'spills over' to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Toward this problem we are developing a model of climate aggravated spill-over that couples social, economic, infrastructure and resource dynamics and constraints. The model integrates system dynamics and agent based simulation to identify regions vulnerable to the spill-over effect and to explore potential mitigating and/or adaptive measures. At the heart of the analysis is human migration which is modeled by combining aspects of the Protection Motivation Theory and Theory of Planned Behavior within the mechanistic framework of Fick's first law of diffusion. Agents in the current model are distinguished at the country level by country of residence, country of origin, gender, education/skill, age, and rural/urban roots. The model of the environment in which the agents operate endogenously simulates economy, labor, population, disease, violence, energy, water, and food sectors. Various climate scenarios distinguished by differences in temperature, precipitation and extreme events, are simulated over a 50 year time horizon. Results allow exploration of the nexus between climate change, resource provisioning, especially energy, water and land, and the resultant adaptive response of the impacted population. Current modeling efforts are focused on the developing nations of West Africa. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly

Potential impacts of climate change on the built environment: ASHRAE climate zones, building codes and national energy efficiency

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

New, Joshua Ryan [ORNL; Kumar, Jitendra [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M. [ORNL

2017-10-01

Statement of the Problem: ASHRAE releases updates to 90.1 “Energy Standard for Buildings except Low-Rise Residential Buildings” every three years resulting in a 3.7%-17.3% increase in energy efficiency for buildings with each release. This is adopted by or informs building codes in nations across the globe, is the National Standard for the US, and individual states elect which release year of the standard they will enforce. These codes are built upon Standard 169 “Climatic Data for Building Design Standards,” the latest 2017 release of which defines climate zones based on 8, 118 weather stations throughout the world and data from the past 8-25 years. This data may not be indicative of the weather that new buildings built today, will see during their upcoming 30-120 year lifespan. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: Using more modern, high-resolution datasets from climate satellites, IPCC climate models (PCM and HadGCM), high performance computing resources (Titan) and new capabilities for clustering and optimization the authors briefly analyzed different methods for redefining climate zones. Using bottom-up analysis of multiple meteorological variables which were the subject matter, experts selected as being important to energy consumption, rather than the heating/cooling degree days currently used. Findings: We analyzed the accuracy of redefined climate zones, compared to current climate zones and how the climate zones moved under different climate change scenarios, and quantified the accuracy of these methods on a local level, at a national scale for the US. Conclusion & Significance: There is likely to be a significant annual, national energy and cost (billions USD) savings that could be realized by adjusting climate zones to take into account anticipated trends or scenarios in regional weather patterns.

Wind energy under cold climate conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maribo Pedersen, B.

1999-03-01

There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)

Climate changes and energy safety in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaeffer, Roberto; Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira de; Souza, Raquel Rodrigues de; Borba, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar; Costa, Isabella Vaz Leal da; Pereira Junior, Amaro Olimpio; Cunha, Sergio Henrique F. da

2008-01-01

The possible effects of climate changes on the supply and demand of energy in the country are analyzed. The goal is to evaluate how the Brazilian energy system planned for 2030 would face the climate new conditions projected for the period of 2071 a 2100. The study also points out energy policy measurements which can be adopted to relief the negative impacts

Energy and Climate Change (Executive Summary)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

World Energy Council

2007-01-01

The world needs urgently to develop a coherent and practical approach to reducing greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions. Energy professionals from across the world have been examining climate change policies to see what works in promoting sustainable development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has recently confirmed that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal and the Stern Report has argued that early action to combat climate change makes economic sense. However, existing efforts are clearly insufficient - most countries with targets under Kyoto Protocol are not on track to meeting them and many countries do not have Kyoto targets. As a result, ghg emissions are still rising and are forecast to go on doing so for decades to come. The problem is not a lack of policies to deal with climate change - some thousands of policies have been introduced, both by countries within the Kyoto system and those outside, and the effort is under way to develop a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. Yet so far those policies are not proving adequate to the scale of the problem. There is a pressing need to understand why they are failing and to implement measures that are more effective in reducing emissions, particularly from the energy sector, which accounts for around two thirds of total ghg emissions. The WEC has therefore undertaken a Study of Energy and Climate Change, drawing on the collective experience and resources of energy professionals worldwide. It has looked in detail at the impact of existing climate change measures and how effective they have been in promoting sustainable development, using the criteria of the three A's - accessibility (to affordable energy); acceptability (of the energy sources used, particularly in environmental terms); and availability (how secure and reliable are those sources?). It is important to remember that sustainable development is not only about the environment - policies which fail to contribute to economic and social

Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

2015-01-01

India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

A Statistical Model for Energy Intensity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marjaneh Issapour

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A promising approach to improve scientific literacy in regards to global warming and climate change is using a simulation as part of a science education course. The simulation needs to employ scientific analysis of actual data from internationally accepted and reputable databases to demonstrate the reality of the current climate change situation. One of the most important criteria for using a simulation in a science education course is the fidelity of the model. The realism of the events and consequences modeled in the simulation is significant as well. Therefore, all underlying equations and algorithms used in the simulation must have real-world scientific basis. The "Energy Choices" simulation is one such simulation. The focus of this paper is the development of a mathematical model for "Energy Intensity" as a part of the overall system dynamics in "Energy Choices" simulation. This model will define the "Energy Intensity" as a function of other independent variables that can be manipulated by users of the simulation. The relationship discovered by this research will be applied to an algorithm in the "Energy Choices" simulation.

Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bahn, Olivier [GERAD and Department of Management Sciences, HEC Montreal, Montreal (Qc) (Canada); Edwards, Neil R. [Earth and Environmental Sciences, CEPSAR, Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stocker, Thomas F. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

2011-01-15

Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. (author)

Energy Revolution Against Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, V.

2007-01-01

Energy revolution is taking place in the world with objective to mitigate consequences of evident climate change, caused mostly by emissions of the greenhouse gases from combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas). The principal elements of the energy revolution are decrease in energy consumption by increase in energy efficiency and substitution of fossil fuels by renewable energies, supported by 'clean' fossil fuels and nuclear energy. (author)

The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Creutzig, Felix; Agoston, Peter; Goldschmidt, Jan Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar; Nemet, Gregory; Pietzcker, Robert C.

2017-09-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report emphasizes the importance of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage for achieving climate goals, but it does not identify solar energy as a strategically important technology option. That is surprising given the strong growth, large resource, and low environmental footprint of photovoltaics (PV). Here we explore how models have consistently underestimated PV deployment and identify the reasons for underlying bias in models. Our analysis reveals that rapid technological learning and technology-specific policy support were crucial to PV deployment in the past, but that future success will depend on adequate financing instruments and the management of system integration. We propose that with coordinated advances in multiple components of the energy system, PV could supply 30-50% of electricity in competitive markets.

Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

Science.gov (United States)

Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

2014-01-01

The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

Energy security and climate policy. Assessing interactions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-03-28

World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising. This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly. The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The 'indicators' are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.

Energy policy in China: implications for global climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

ZhongXiang Zhang [University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

1998-12-31

This is the first systematic and comprehensive analysis of the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy. It evaluates the economics of climate change and provides national, cost-effective policies for climate change. The book consists of three main parts, firstly, an analysis of the Chinese energy system to increase awareness of the implications of this sector for China`s future carbon dioxide emissions, secondly, a macroeconomic analysis of carbon dioxide emissions limits using a newly-developed computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy; and finally, a cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options by means of a technology-oriented dynamic optimization model.

Building energy efficiency in different climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Tsang, C.L.; Yang Liu

2008-01-01

Energy simulation was conducted for office buildings in the five major climate zones - severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, mild, and hot summer and warm winter - in China using DOE-2.1E. The primary aim was to investigate the thermal and energy performance of office buildings with centralised heating, ventilation and air conditioning plants in the major climatic zones in China. The computed results were analysed in three aspects - heating load, cooling load and the corresponding building energy consumption. The building peak monthly heating load varied from 142 MW h (1033 MW h cooling) in Hong Kong to 447 MW h (832 MW h cooling) in Harbin. It was also found that passive solar designs could have large energy savings potential in the severe cold and cold climates. In Harbin, the window solar component helped lower the annual building heating load by 650 MW h. Internal loads (lighting and office equipment) and part load operations of fans and pumps also played a significant role in the overall building energy efficiency. This paper presents the work, its findings and energy efficiency implications

Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruth, Matthias; Lin, A.-C.

2006-01-01

This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state

Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, Matthias [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)]. E-mail: mruth1@umd.edu; Lin, A.-C. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20782 (United States)

2006-11-15

This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state.

EU energy and climate change strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graça Carvalho, Maria da

2012-01-01

This paper will summarise the European Strategy for Energy and Climate Change. In current international negotiations Europe has proposed a 20% reduction in GHG (greenhouse gases) in the developed countries by 2020 or 30% should there be an international agreement in the domain. However it is important to define measures to achieve the targets. One of the principal tools is to improve energy efficiency under the energy efficiency action plan, which will help to achieve a 20% energy saving by 2020. On the other hand, the amount of energy from renewable sources consumed in Europe will have to rise from its current level of 8.5%–20% by 2020. These are ambitious but achievable targets. Nonetheless, these can only be achieved through strong investment in areas of the knowledge triangle which strengthens research and innovation in the energy sector in Europe. The paper covers European Energy and Climate Change Policy, the European Strategic Energy Technology plan, the consequences of the Lisbon Treaty, European and national Road maps to a low carbon economy, the Energy Efficiency Plan for 2011 and finishes with a brief consideration of the EU’s energy infrastructure priorities. -- Highlights: ► This paper summarises the European Strategy for Energy and Climate Change. ► Reduction of GHG emissions by 30%-international agreement or −20% without agreement. ► Use of 20% of renewable energies by 2020. ► Increase of energy efficiency of 20% by 2020. ► Consolidating of the internal energy market.

40% Whole-House Energy Savings in the Hot-Humid Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

none,

2011-09-01

This guide book is a resource to help builders design and construct highly energy-efficient homes, while addressing building durability, indoor air quality, and occupant health, safety, and comfort. With the measures described in this guide, builders in the hot-humid climate can build homes that achieve whole house energy savings of 40% over the Building America benchmark (the 1993 Model Energy Code) with no added overall costs for consumers.

40% Whole-House Energy Savings in the Mixed-Humid Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baechler, Michael C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gilbride, T. L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hefty, M. G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cole, P. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Adams, K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Butner, R. S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ortiz, S. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Love, Pat M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2011-09-01

This guide book is a resource to help builders design and construct highly energy-efficient homes, while addressing building durability, indoor air quality, and occupant health, safety, and comfort. With the measures described in this guide, builders in the mixed-humid climate can build homes that achieve whole house energy savings of 40% over the Building America benchmark (the 1993 Model Energy Code) with no added overall costs for consumers.

Temporal and Spatial Explicit Modelling of Renewable Energy Systems : Modelling variable renewable energy systems to address climate change mitigation and universal electricity access

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeyringer, Marianne

2017-01-01

Two major global challenges climate change mitigation and universal electricity access, can be addressed by large scale deployment of renewable energy sources (Alstone et al., 2015). Around 60% of greenhouse gas emissions originate from energy generation and 90% of CO2 emissions are caused by fossil

The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yuying [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Marchand, Roger [University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Kollias, Pavlos [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Clothiaux, Eugene E. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Johnson, Karen [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Swales, Dustin [CIRES and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Tang, Shuaiqi [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Haynes, John M. [Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Collis, Scott [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois; Jensen, Michael [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Bharadwaj, Nitin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Hardin, Joseph [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Isom, Bradley [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

2018-01-01

Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are

Advanced energy technologies and climate change: An analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edmonds, J.; Wise, M.; MacCracken, C.

1994-01-01

The authors report results from a ''top down'' energy-economy model employing ''bottom up'' assumptions and embedded in an integrated assessment framework, GCAM. The analysis shows that, from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences in results from the ''top down'' and ''bottom up'' research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences in modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the middle of the eighteenth century. The consideration of all greenhouse gases, and in particular sulfur, leads to some extremely interesting results that the rapid deployment of advanced energy technologies leads to higher temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This is due to the fact that the advanced energy technologies reduce sulfur emissions as well as those of carbon. The short-term cooling impact of sulfur dominates the long-term warming impact of CO 2 and CH 4 . While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. 16 refs., 12 figs., 3 tabs

Time to refine key climate policy models

Science.gov (United States)

Barron, Alexander R.

2018-05-01

Ambition regarding climate change at the national level is critical but is often calibrated with the projected costs — as estimated by a small suite of energy-economic models. Weaknesses in several key areas in these models will continue to distort policy design unless collectively addressed by a diversity of researchers.

Climate-smart technologies. Integrating renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leal Filho, Walter; Mannke, Franziska; Schulte, Veronika [Hamburg Univ. of Applied Sciences (Germany). Faculty of Life Sciences; Mohee, Romeela; Surroop, Dinesh (eds.) [Mauritius Univ., Reduit (Mauritius). Chemical and Environmental Engineering Dept.

2013-11-01

Explores the links between climate change and technologies. Relates to the links between renewable energy and climate change. Documents and promotes a collection of experiences from island nations. Has a strong international focus and value to developing countries. The book addresses the perceived need for a publication with looks at both, climate smart technologies and the integration of renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses. Based on a set of papers submitted as part of the fifth on-line climate conference (CLIMATE 2012) and a major conference on renewable energy on island States held in Mauritius in 2012, the book provides a wealth of information on climate change strategies and the role of smart technologies. The book has been produced in the context of the project ''Small Developing Island Renewable Energy Knowledge and Technology Transfer Network'' (DIREKT), funded by the ACP Science and Technology Programme, an EU programme for cooperation between the European Union and the ACP region.

Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

2005-01-01

Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

Hemispheric symmetry of the Earth's Energy Balance as a fundamental constraint on the Earth's climate

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, G. L.; Webster, P. J.; OBrien, D. M.

2013-12-01

We currently lack a quantitative understanding of how the Earth's energy balance and the poleward energy transport adjust to different forcings that determine climate change. Currently, there are no constraints that guide this understanding. We will demonstrate that the Earth's energy balance exhibits a remarkable symmetry about the equator, and that this symmetry is a necessary condition of a steady state climate. Our analysis points to clouds as the principal agent that highly regulates this symmetry and sets the steady state. The existence of this thermodynamic steady-state constraint on climate and the symmetry required to sustain it leads to important inferences about the synchronous nature of climate changes between hemispheres, offering for example insights on mechanisms that can sustain global ice ages forced by asymmetric hemispheric solar radiation variations or how climate may respond to increases in greenhouse gas concentration. Further inferences regarding cloud effects on climate can also be deduced without resorting to the complex and intricate processes of cloud formation, whose representation continues to challenge the climate modeling community. The constraint suggests cloud feedbacks must be negative buffering the system against change. We will show that this constraint doesn't exist in the current CMIP5 model experiments and the lack of such a constraint suggests there is insufficient buffering in models in response to external forcings

Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

2014-04-01

Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

Climate warming and perception of energy resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boy, Daniel

2014-06-01

Drawing from a set of surveys, the aim of the present paper is to identify elements concerning the representations of climate change, the relation of which with daily energy use is not always clear. More precisely, in the field of energy consumption, several surveys allow a more precise vision of the interest for renewable energies and of the relationship between nuclear energy and society. The annual surveys carried out for more than ten years by ADEME (environment and energy mastering agency) allow a diachronic view of the evolution of climate change perception and of political events which have influenced it. The interpretation of the results points out the sensitivity of climate change perception to events, and particularly to political hazards. The renewable energies mirage has tended to fade with the numerous current debates. The adhesion of French public opinion to nuclear energy remains significant as, even after the Fukushima accident, a majority of individuals investigated are in favor of this still contested source of energy, including by people with high scientific literacy. Nevertheless, the energy issue, and particularly when it comes to nuclear energy, has become strongly politicized. (author)

Challenges to a climate stabilizing energy future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, C.; Dilmaghani, M.; Baksi, S.

2007-01-01

The paper surveys the major challenges to stabilizing the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Climate change, and policies to deal with it, is viewed as an energy problem. The energy problem stems from the fact that no combination of carbon-free energies is currently capable of displacing fossil fuels as the main sources of the world's base load energy requirements. The paper provides rough estimates of the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize climate, the potential contribution of 'conventional' carbon-free energies, the contribution of renewable energies, and the size of an 'advanced energy technology gap'. The findings indicate that stabilizing CO 2 concentration will require a long-term commitment to research, develop, and eventually deploy new energy sources and technologies including hydrogen. The paper suggests that the role of technology is what makes stabilizing CO 2 concentration economically feasible. In this respect energy technology and economics are complementary, with advances in the former requiring something more than a reliance on market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emission permits. The analysis has implications for the credibility of commitments to target climate change-related factors such as CO 2 emissions.(author)

Challenges to a climate stabilizing energy future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, Chris; Baksi, Soham; Dilmaghani, Maryam

2007-01-01

The paper surveys the major challenges to stabilizing the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Climate change, and policies to deal with it, is viewed as an energy problem. The energy problem stems from the fact that no combination of carbon-free energies is currently capable of displacing fossil fuels as the main sources of the world's base load energy requirements. The paper provides rough estimates of the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize climate, the potential contribution of 'conventional' carbon-free energies, the contribution of renewable energies, and the size of an 'advanced energy technology gap'. The findings indicate that stabilizing CO 2 concentration will require a long-term commitment to research, develop, and eventually deploy new energy sources and technologies including hydrogen. The paper suggests that the role of technology is what makes stabilizing CO 2 concentration economically feasible. In this respect energy technology and economics are complementary, with advances in the former requiring something more than a reliance on market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emission permits. The analysis has implications for the credibility of commitments to target climate change-related factors such as CO 2 emissions

Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

2012-01-01

We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

Climate change impacts on chosen activities from the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fonte Hernandez, Aramis; Rivero Vega, Roger

2006-01-01

The present work, results of a study carried out about the possible impact of climate change on the energy sector in the province Camaguey are shown. First of all, the main activities in companies, utilities, and farms related to the most significant energy consumption were chosen in order to model corresponding equivalent fuel consumption. Impacts were determined taking into account differences between present and future consumptions for each kind of energy. In developed countries, this kind of work is done using well-known empirical-statistical models, which usually require a lot of data at a nation-wide scale, but to attempt it in an undeveloped country demands the use of specific methodology, which in this case was non-existent and required us to create it. This resulted in a carefully posed question since we had to take into consideration that the spatial scale is only that of a province, and so it was necessary, above all, to study specific characteristics of provincial fuel consumption. We used the Magic-Scengen system and SRES scenarios, and outputs of general circulation models like HadCM2 to obtain values of chosen climatic variables for use in energy consumption regression models, previously developed for each kind of activity in the corresponding companies, firm, and facilities included in the present research. It made possible to estimate energy consumption in each activity at the selected time periods centered at 2020, 2050, and 2080. The study shows that impact could rise the consumption by 2,5% of the present energy level in this territory

The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kesicki, Fabian; Anandarajah, Gabrial

2011-01-01

In order to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO 2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: → A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. → The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. → Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. → Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. → Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kesicki, Fabian, E-mail: fabian.kesicki.09@ucl.ac.uk [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom); Anandarajah, Gabrial [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom)

2011-11-15

In order to reduce energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO{sub 2} emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: > A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. > The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. > Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. > Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. > Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

Climate change impacts on runoff and hydropower in the Nordic countries. Final report from the project 'Climate change and energy production'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roar Saelthun, N.; Aittoniemi, P.; Bergstroem, S.

1998-01-01

The Nordic research program 'Climate change and energy production' has been carried out in co-operation between the Nordic hydrological services and the Nordic hydroelectric power industry with funding from the Nordic Council of Ministers and participating institutions. The program has been running for the period 1991-1996. The main objective of the research program was to analyse the effects of a future global climate change on the Nordic system for hydroelectric power production due to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The main parts of the program have been: A. Testing and improvements of hydrological models, with special emphasis on evapotranspiration, snow melt and glacier mass balance submodels. B. Assessment of the capability of existing energy planning models to analyse climate change impacts. C. Establishment of state-of-art scenarios for meteorological variables. Estimation of runoff scenarios. D. Analysis of climate change impacts on electricity consumption. E. Analysis of impacts on the hydropower systems, on national and regional scale, including effects on floods and dam safety issues. F. Analysis of climatic variability and climatic trends of hydrological records, including annual, seasonal and extreme values. (au) 171 refs

Climate change and energy policies in Shanghai: A multilevel governance perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francesch-Huidobro, Maria

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Multilevel governance is a useful framework to understand how resources, tasks and power are distributed for decision making. • Shifts in national climate and energy policy mandate local governments to develop climate change and energy policies. • Local governments have greater autonomy for incorporating climate and energy issues into development goals. • Climate mitigation and energy policy is dominated by hierarchical governance. - Abstract: Despite growing interest in China’s response to climate change and energy security, studies undertaken at the subnational level are rare. In the context of the multilevel governance paradigm, this article examines the governance of climate change and energy policy in Shanghai, a rapidly growing Chinese megacity highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Although the energy and carbon intensity of Shanghai’s economy have fallen significantly since China launched its economic reforms, overall carbon emissions in the municipality continue to rise. Through examining the Shanghai case, this article argues that Chinese subnational climate mitigation policy is dominated by hierarchical governance arrangements. Nevertheless, shifts in national climate and energy policy since 2007 have mandated provincial-level governments, including Shanghai, to develop their own climate and energy policies while offering greater local autonomy for incorporating climate and energy issues into development goals: is this attributable to a decentred form of multilevel governance? The article concludes that Shanghai’s climate mitigation and energy policy is dominated by hierarchical governance whereby policies are ‘downloaded’ from the central government. Perspectives for other cities and insights for policymakers are discussed.

Contrasting model complexity under a changing climate in a headwaters catchment.

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, L.; Williams, K. H.; Maxwell, R. M.

2017-12-01

Alpine, snowmelt-dominated catchments are the source of water for more than 1/6th of the world's population. These catchments are topographically complex, leading to steep weather gradients and nonlinear relationships between water and energy fluxes. Recent evidence suggests that alpine systems are more sensitive to climate warming, but these regions are vastly simplified in climate models and operational water management tools due to computational limitations. Simultaneously, point-scale observations are often extrapolated to larger regions where feedbacks can both exacerbate or mitigate locally observed changes. It is critical to determine whether projected climate impacts are robust to different methodologies, including model complexity. Using high performance computing and an integrated model of a representative headwater catchment we determined the hydrologic response from 30 projected climate changes to precipitation, temperature and vegetation for the Rocky Mountains. Simulations were run with 100m and 1km resolution, and with and without lateral subsurface flow in order to vary model complexity. We found that model complexity alters nonlinear relationships between water and energy fluxes. Higher-resolution models predicted larger changes per degree of temperature increase than lower resolution models, suggesting that reductions to snowpack, surface water, and groundwater due to warming may be underestimated in simple models. Increases in temperature were found to have a larger impact on water fluxes and stores than changes in precipitation, corroborating previous research showing that mountain systems are significantly more sensitive to temperature changes than to precipitation changes and that increases in winter precipitation are unlikely to compensate for increased evapotranspiration in a higher energy environment. These numerical experiments help to (1) bracket the range of uncertainty in published literature of climate change impacts on headwater

An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bollen, Johannes; Hers, Sebastiaan; Van der Zwaan, Bob

2010-01-01

This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO 2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (author)

Database of Low-e Storm Window Energy Performance across U.S. Climate Zones

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Culp, Thomas D.; Cort, Katherine A.

2014-09-04

This is an update of a report that describes process, assumptions, and modeling results produced Create a Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows. The scope of the overall effort is to develop a database of energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN model calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by cliamte zone.

Etude Climat no. 36 'Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans: a tool for guiding the energy and climate transition in French regions'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Charentenay, Jeremie; Leseur, Alexia; Bordier, Cecile

2012-01-01

Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: The Regional Climate-Air-Energy Plan (SRCAE - Schema Regional Climat-Air-Energie) was introduced by the Grenelle II legislation. The Plans are co-authored by the State through its decentralised services and the 'Conseil Regionaux' (regional councils) with the objective to guide climate and energy policy in the 26 French regions through to 2020 and 2050. Starting from an assessment of regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the SRCAE establishes energy transition scenarios based on the sectoral and structural guidelines that constitute the principal framework of the regional strategy. This report offers a detailed analysis of the strategies chosen by the various Regions for a successful transition to low-carbon energy sources, via the study of eleven SRCAEs that were opened to public consultation before the end of July 2012 (Alsace, Aquitaine, Auvergne, Bourgogne, Centre, Champagne-Ardenne, Ile-de-France, Midi-Pyrenees, Nord-Pas de Calais, Picardie and Rhone-Alpes regions). The wide range of methodologies used by the Regions, both to draw up their inventories of GHG emissions and for their scenarios, means that a quantitative comparison between regions or against the national objectives is not possible. Nevertheless, the report establishes a typology of regions and identifies policies that are common to all regions and those chosen in response to local characteristics. Certain guidelines could be applied by other regions of the same type, or could feed into discussions at national level. The report also indicates that the SRCAEs go beyond the competencies of the Regions, highlighting the role of local, national and European decision-making in the success of a regional energy transition. Particular attention was paid to the building and transport sectors, often identified as having the largest potential for reducing

Energy-economic policy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

Climate and Southern Africa's Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Science.gov (United States)

Conway, D.; Osborn, T.; Dorling, S.; Ringler, C.; Lankford, B.; Dalin, C.; Thurlow, J.; Zhu, T.; Deryng, D.; Landman, W.; Archer van Garderen, E.; Krueger, T.; Lebek, K.

2014-12-01

Numerous challenges coalesce to make Southern Africa emblematic of the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus. Rainfall and river flows in the region show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate variability and change is high, for example, the contribution of electricity produced from hydroelectric sources is over 30% in Madagascar and Zimbabwe and almost 100% in the DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. The region's economy is closely linked with that of the rest of the African continent and climate-sensitive food products are an important item of trade. Southern Africa's population is concentrated in regions exposed to high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, and will increase rapidly over the next four decades. The capacity to manage the effects of climate variability tends, however, to be low. Moreover, with climate change annual precipitation levels, soil moisture and runoff are likely to decrease and rising temperatures will increase evaporative demand. Despite high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, the sectoral and cross-sectoral water-energy-food linkages with climate in Southern Africa have not been considered in detail. Lack of data and questionable reliability are compounded by complex dynamic relationships. We review the role of climate in Southern Africa's nexus, complemented by empirical analysis of national level data on climate, water resources, crop and energy production, and economic activity. Our aim is to examine the role of climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations in the nexus, and to improve understanding of the magnitude and temporal dimensions of their interactions. We first consider national level exposure of food, water and energy production to climate in aggregate economic terms and then examine the linkages between interannual and multi-year climate variability and economic activity, focusing on food and

Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This paper explores the relationships between climate policy and renewable energy policy instruments. It shows that, even where CO2 emissions are duly priced, specific incentives for supporting the early deployment of renewable energy technologies are justified by the steep learning curves of nascent technologies. This early investment reduces costs in the longer term and makes renewable energy affordable when it needs to be deployed on a very large scale to fully contribute to climate change mitigation and energy security. The paper also reveals other noteworthy interaction effects of climate policy and renewable policy instruments on the wholesale electricity prices in deregulated markets, which open new areas for future research.

Energy Savings of Low-E Storm Windows and Panels across US Climate Zones

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Culp, Thomas D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cort, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-10-01

This report builds off of previous modeling work related to low-e storm windows used to create a "Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows." This work updates similar studies using new fuel costs and examining the separate contributions of reduced air leakage and reduced coefficients of overall heat transfer and solar heat gain. In this report we examine the energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates, excluding the impact from infiltration reductions, which tend to vary using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN model calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by climate zone.

Resolution on the program energy-climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

This document presents the resolutions proposed in the resolution proposition n. 1261 and concerning the european Commission program on the energy policies and the climate change. Twelve resolution are presented on the energy sources development, the energy efficiency, the energy economy and the carbon taxes. (A.L.B.)

A Unique Climate and Energy Policy - Key Problems and Possible Solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granic, G.

2016-01-01

This paper analyses problems of independent application of climate and energy policy. In order to accomplish the goals from The Paris Climate Agreement, an agreement about the goals and measures for climate preservation from 2015, a unique climate and energy policy is suggested, as well as the measures for the implementation of it. To achieve no CO2 and GHG emissions in the energy sector, to have it be completely market based, energy efficient and technologically approved, a unique climate and energy policy is a necessary option and the only viable option to accomplish previously agreed climate goals.(author).

Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Werf, Edwin

2008-01-01

Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

The Haute-Normandie Climate Air Energy Regional Scheme - Synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

This regional public and planning document (SRCAE) first proposes a regional diagnosis in terms of energetic situation, climatic situation, air quality situation, building condition (in terms of energy), transports (characteristics of regional transport, of person and goods transport), industries and enterprises (important role of oil and chemical activities, low level of renewable and recovery energies), agriculture and forest, renewable energies (biomass and wastes, wind energy, solar photovoltaic, hydroelectricity, renewable heat production), and territory vulnerability in front of climate change. The second part states objectives and orientations: definition of scenarios, and of sector-based objectives (in the building, transport, agricultural, and industrial sectors, in the development of renewable energies, and in terms of adaptation to climate change). Synthetic approaches are then stated in relationship with different challenges related to sustainable behaviours and consumption, promotion of professions related to energy transition, diffusion of good practices in the fields of energy efficiency and emission reduction, sustainable land development, promotion of environmental mutations for the regional economy, innovation to face climate and energy challenges, development of renewable energies, anticipation of the adaptation to climate change, and SRCAE follow-up and assessment. Sheets of definitions of objectives are given for each sector. A synthetic version of this study is provided

An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iotova, A [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

1996-12-31

A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iotova, A. [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

1995-12-31

A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

Climate: Policy, Modeling, and Federal Priorities (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Koonin, S.; Department Of Energy Office Of The Under SecretaryScience

2010-12-01

The Administration has set ambitious national goals to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The US and other countries involved in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change continue to work toward a goal of establishing a viable treaty that would encompass limits on emissions and codify actions that nations would take to reduce emissions. These negotiations are informed by the science of climate change and by our understanding of how changes in technology and the economy might affect the overall climate in the future. I will describe the present efforts within the U.S. Department of Energy, and the federal government more generally, to address issues related to climate change. These include state-of-the-art climate modeling and uncertainty assessment, economic and climate scenario planning based on best estimates of different technology trajectories, adaption strategies for climate change, and monitoring and reporting for treaty verification.

SLC summer 2010 university - The ocean in the climate-energy problem, urban policies. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-09-01

This document brings together the available presentations given at the summer 2010 university of the SLC (save the climate) organization on the topics of the ocean in the climate-energy problem, and of the urban policies. Nine presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Biofuels made from micro-algae: stakes and challenges (Olivier Bernard, Comore - INRIA /CNRS/UPMC); 2 - The energy of waves (Alain Clement, Ecole Centrale de Nantes); 3 - The sea, new source of renewable energies? (J.J. Herou, EDF CIH); 4 - Oceans acidification: the other CO 2 problem (James Orr, Pierre Simon Laplace Institute - IPSL, Laboratory of climate and environmental Sciences - LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ); 5 - Oceans and carbon cycle (Laurent Bopp, IPSL/LSCE); 6 - Renewable marine energies (Yann-Herve De Roeck, France Energies Marines); 7 - Energy renovation of buildings (Jean-Claude Terrier, Mesac Europe); 8 - Modevur research project - Modeling of urban development, sketch of a development typology of chinese cities (Clement-Noel Douady); 9 - Urban areas in the fight against climate change: stakes, knowledge and controversies (Francois Menard, PUCA)

Energy climate study. Energy assessment, Greenhouse gas emission assessment, Analysis of vulnerability to climate change, Courses of mitigation and adaptation actions. Full report + Appendices + Restitution of the Energy-Climate Study, September 17, 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

After a brief presentation of Le Mans region, a presentation of the study (context, scope, methodology), and a recall of challenges related to energy and to climate, this study reports a situational analysis and a discussion of development perspectives for energy production on the concerned territory, an assessment of energy consumptions and of greenhouse gas emissions by the different sectors, and a study of territory vulnerability to climate change (methodology, territory characteristics, climate scenarios, vulnerability assessment). It discusses lessons learned from energy and greenhouse gas emission assessments (social-economic stakes, territory strengths and weaknesses, perspectives for action). It discusses the implementation of these issues within a territorial planning document, and the perspective of elaboration of a territorial climate energy plan. An appendix reports an assessment of the potential of development of the different renewable energies (hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic and thermal, wind, wood, methanization, and other processes like waste valorisation, geothermal, and heat networks). Another appendix reports the precise assessment of greenhouse gas emissions on the territory. The next appendix proposes detailed descriptions of scenarios for the implementation of the issue of greenhouse gas emissions within the territorial planning document. The last appendix contains Power Point presentations of the study

Nuclear energy and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez Jimenez, A.

2002-01-01

Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO 2 emissions. (Author)

Climate change, energy, sustainability and pavements

CERN Document Server

Gopalakrishnan, Kasthurirangan; Harvey, John

2014-01-01

Climate change, energy production and consumption, and the need to improve the sustainability of all aspects of human activity are key inter-related issues for which solutions must be found and implemented quickly and efficiently.  To be successfully implemented, solutions must recognize the rapidly changing socio-techno-political environment and multi-dimensional constraints presented by today's interconnected world.  As part of this global effort, considerations of climate change impacts, energy demands, and incorporation of sustainability concepts have increasing importance in the design,

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

SLC summer 2010 university - The ocean in the climate-energy problem, urban policies. Proceedings; Universite d'ete 2010 SLC - L'Ocean dans la problematique Climat-Energie, politiques urbaines. Recueil des presentations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-09-15

This document brings together the available presentations given at the summer 2010 university of the SLC (save the climate) organization on the topics of the ocean in the climate-energy problem, and of the urban policies. Nine presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Biofuels made from micro-algae: stakes and challenges (Olivier Bernard, Comore - INRIA /CNRS/UPMC); 2 - The energy of waves (Alain Clement, Ecole Centrale de Nantes); 3 - The sea, new source of renewable energies? (J.J. Herou, EDF CIH); 4 - Oceans acidification: the other CO{sub 2} problem (James Orr, Pierre Simon Laplace Institute - IPSL, Laboratory of climate and environmental Sciences - LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ); 5 - Oceans and carbon cycle (Laurent Bopp, IPSL/LSCE); 6 - Renewable marine energies (Yann-Herve De Roeck, France Energies Marines); 7 - Energy renovation of buildings (Jean-Claude Terrier, Mesac Europe); 8 - Modevur research project - Modeling of urban development, sketch of a development typology of chinese cities (Clement-Noel Douady); 9 - Urban areas in the fight against climate change: stakes, knowledge and controversies (Francois Menard, PUCA)

Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

1994-05-01

This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

Strategies for Effective Implementation of Science Models into 6-9 Grade Classrooms on Climate, Weather, and Energy Topics

Science.gov (United States)

Yarker, M. B.; Stanier, C. O.; Forbes, C.; Park, S.

2011-12-01

strategies middle school science teachers use to implement science models into their classrooms. These teachers in this study took part in a week-long professional development designed to orient them towards appropriate use of science models for a unit on weather, climate, and energy concepts. The goal of this project is to describe the professional development and describe how teachers intend to incorporate science models into each of their individual classrooms.

Arctic melt ponds and energy balance in the climate system

Science.gov (United States)

Sudakov, Ivan

2017-02-01

Elements of Earth's cryosphere, such as the summer Arctic sea ice pack, are melting at precipitous rates that have far outpaced the projections of large scale climate models. Understanding key processes, such as the evolution of melt ponds that form atop Arctic sea ice and control its optical properties, is crucial to improving climate projections. These types of critical phenomena in the cryosphere are of increasing interest as the climate system warms, and are crucial for predicting its stability. In this paper, we consider how geometrical properties of melt ponds can influence ice-albedo feedback and how it can influence the equilibria in the energy balance of the planet.

Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

CERN Multimedia

2002-01-01

Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

Computational fluid dynamics simulation of indoor climate in low energy buildings: Computational set up

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Risberg Daniel

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper CFD was used for simulation of the indoor climate in a part of a low energy building. The focus of the work was on investigating the computational set up, such as grid size and boundary conditions in order to solve the indoor climate problems in an accurate way. Future work is to model a complete building, with reasonable calculation time and accuracy. A limited number of grid elements and knowledge of boundary settings are therefore essential. An accurate grid edge size of around 0.1 m was enough to predict the climate according to a grid independency study. Different turbulence models were compared with only small differences in the indoor air velocities and temperatures. The models show that radiation between building surfaces has a large impact on the temperature field inside the building, with the largest differences at the floor level. Simplifying the simulations by modelling the radiator as a surface in the outer wall of the room is appropriate for the calculations. The overall indoor climate is finally compared between three different cases for the outdoor air temperature. The results show a good indoor climate for a low energy building all around the year.

Bringing solutions to big challenges. Energy - climate - technology (ECT)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The conference contains 45 presentations within the sections integrated policy and strategic perspectives on energy, climate change and technology, energy efficiency with prospects and measures, climate change and challenges for offshore energy and technology, possibilities for technology utilization, nuclear technology developments including some papers on thorium utilization, ethics of energy resource use and climate change, challenges and possibilities for the Western Norway and sustainability and security in an ECT-context. Some economic aspects are discussed as well. 16 of the 45 papers have been indexed for the database (tk)

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cox, Sarah L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hotchkiss, Elizabeth L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bilello, Daniel E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Watson, Andrea C [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Holm, Alison [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-11-03

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change. Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts - both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growing electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.

Climate impact of transportation A model comparison

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Grahn, M.; Kitous, A.; Kim, S.H.; Kyle, P.

2013-01-01

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global

Energy taxes, resource taxes and quantity rationing for climate protection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eisenack, Klaus [Oldenburg Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economics; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Kalkuhl, Matthias [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany)

2010-11-15

Economic sectors react strategically to climate policy, aiming at a re-distribution of rents. Established analysis suggests a Pigouvian emission tax as efficient instrument, but also recommends factor input or output taxes under specific conditions. However, existing studies leave it open whether output taxes, input taxes or input rationing perform better, and at best only touch their distributional consequences. When emissions correspond to extracted ressources, it is questionable whether taxes are effective at all. We determine the effectiveness, efficiency and functional income distribution for these instruments in the energy and resource sector, based on a game theoretic growth model with explicit factor markets and policy instruments. Market equilibrium depends on a government that acts as a Stackelberg leader with a climate protection goal. We find that resource taxes and cumulative resource quantity rationing achieve this objective efficiently. Energy taxation is only second best. Mitigation generates a substantial ''climate rent'' in the resource sector that can be converted to transfer incomes by taxes. (orig.)

No energy security without climate security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiller, M.

2006-06-01

WWF urges the G8 nations to embark on a serious global 'Climate and Energy Security Plan' akin in dimension to the Marshall plan after the Second World War. The plan would aim at dramatically augmenting energy efficiency measures and renewable energy sources within the next five years

Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Najac, J.

2008-11-01

In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

Exploring elementary students’ understanding of energy and climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colin BOYLAN

2008-10-01

Full Text Available As environmental changes become a significant societal issue, elementary science curriculaneed to develop students’ understanding about the key concepts of energy and climate change.For teachers, developing quality learning experiences involves establishing what theirstudents’ prior understanding about energy and climate change are. A survey was developed toexplore what elementary students know and understand about renewable and non-renewablesources of energy and their relationship to climate change issues. The findings from thissurvey are reported in this paper.

Urban climate and energy demand interaction in Northern Eurasia

Science.gov (United States)

Kasilova, E. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Demchenko, P. F.

2017-11-01

The regional and urban climate change in Northern Eurasia is one of the main challenges for sustainable development of human habitats situated in boreal and temperate areas. The half of primary energy is spent for space heating even under quite a mild European climate. Implementation of the district heating in urban areas is currently seen as one of the key conditions of sustainable development. The clear understanding of main problems of the urban climateenergy demand interaction is crucial for both small towns and megacities. The specific features of the urban energy systems in Finland, Russia and China under the changing climate conditions were studied. Regional manifestations of the climate change were examined. The climate projections were established for urban regions of the Northern Eurasia. It was shown that the climate warming is likely to continue intensively there. History and actual development trends were discussed for the urban district heating systems in Russia, China and Finland. Common challenges linked with the climate change have been identified for the considered areas. Adaptation possibilities were discussed taking into account climate-energy interactions.

Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

1994-01-01

This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

Evaluation of the energy-climate package with the help of Gemini-E3 Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vielle, M.; Moulinier, J.M.; Bernard, A.

2009-01-01

This article presents an evaluation of the energy-climate package carried out at the request of the Ministry of Sustainable Development (MEEDDAT) by simulating several scenarios on the general calculable equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. The analysis was carried out during the European negotiations in very close collaboration with the services of the Ministry and has thus constituted a useful tool for deciding and defining the position of France, which, besides, chaired the Union in the course of the transition period of the second half of 2008 and was in charge of finding and gaining acceptance of a compromise between all the member countries, while taking into account the aspirations of the professionals most closely involved. As one might guess, the study shows that the easing of constraints through mechanisms of flexibility yields reductions in the cost of European policy on climate change, particularly for the achievement of the main objective, viz. the 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. This cost is reasonable, although its distribution between countries is neither homogeneous, nor in conformity with concerns over equity. Many indirect effects of the policy on climate change, in particular the gains or losses caused by the modification of the terms of trade, may significantly upset the hierarchy of direct costs. This article also looks into the carbon leakage issue and suggests, in particular, favouring the net leakage concept, this being the discrepancy between the additional emissions in non-annex B countries and those which would have been incurred if production in response to demand from annex B countries relatively insensitive to the policy o climatic change, had not been relocated. Another feature of this study is an evaluation, after the event, of the extent to which the use of a modelling tool has effectively allowed identification of the issues raised in the course of the European negotiation, and to provide relevant answers. (authors)

Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, Ponte P. Bucci, Cubo 31C, I-87036, Rende (CS) (Italy); Vecchio, Antonio, E-mail: tommaso.alberti@unical.it, E-mail: tommasoalberti89@gmail.com [LESIA—Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, 5 place Jules Janssen, F-92190, Meudon (France)

2017-07-20

The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.

Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio

2017-01-01

The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.

Energy upgrading measures improve also indoor climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foldbjerg, Peter; Knudsen, Henrik Nellemose

2014-01-01

A new survey shows that the economy is what motivates Danish owners of single-family houses the most to start energy upgrading, and that improved indoor climate is also an important factor. After the upgrading, homeowners experience both improved economy and indoor climate. In a strategy...... to increase the number of homeowners who venture into a major energy upgrading of their house, the demonstrated positive side effects, more than energy savings, should be included in the communication to motivate homeowners. The barriers should be reduced by “taking the homeowners by the hand” and helping...... them to choose relevant energy-saving solutions as well as clarifying the financial consequences and opportunities....

Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.

2004-08-01

There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling tools for examining the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period (1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations and reanalysis data products. The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100) for two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). These differences are also of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The RCAO simulations for the 2071-2100 period indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during the winter season (December February), but the uncertainty of these prognoses remains high. (au)

Climate change policy is an energy problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, C.; Lightfoot, H.D.

1999-01-01

In an important respect the climate change (global warming) problem is an energy problem. Any policy aimed at substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will require large amounts of carbon free energy as substitutes for fossil fuels. No conceivable rates of improvement in energy efficiency and/or changes in lifestyles will obviate the need for vast amounts of carbon free energy if GHG emissions are to be reduced and the atmospheric concentration of carbon eventually stabilized. Where will such large amounts of carbon free energy come from? The renewable energies (solar, wind, biomass) are dilute and enormously land-using. Their potential contribution is seemingly limited in a world in which competing demands for land for food production, living space, leisure activities, ecological preserve, and natural resource production are increasing. Nuclear energy is controversial (fission) or problematic (fusion). Fuel cells require hydrogen which must be produced using some other form of energy. Tapping the earth's mantle with its vast amount of geothermal energy may be a future possibility. The present limitations of existing alternatives to fossil fuels suggest climate change policy should focus to a greater extent on what 'can' be done, rather than the present emphasis on what 'should' be done. Once refocused, the aim of climate policy should be to spur a decades long search for and development of new carbon free energy sources and technologies capable of displacing fossil fuels and of eventually meeting the world's baseload energy requirements. (author)

A characteristics of East Asian climate using high-resolution regional climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Yhang, Y.

2013-12-01

Climate research, particularly application studies for water, agriculture, forestry, fishery and energy management require fine scale multi-decadal information of meteorological, oceanographic and land states. Unfortunately, spatially and temporally homogeneous multi-decadal observations of these variables in high horizontal resolution are non-existent. Some long term surface records of temperature and precipitation exist, but the number of observation is very limited and the measurements are often contaminated by changes in instrumentation over time. Some climatologically important variables, such as soil moisture, surface evaporation, and radiation are not even measured over most of East Asia. Reanalysis is one approach to obtaining long term homogeneous analysis of needed variables. However, the horizontal resolution of global reanalysis is of the order of 100 to 200 km, too coarse for many application studies. Regional climate models (RCMs) are able to provide valuable regional finescale information, especially in regions where the climate variables are strongly regulated by the underlying topography and the surface heterogeneity. In this study, we will provide accurately downscaled regional climate over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system [GRIMs; Hong et al. 2013]. A mixed layer model is embedded within the GRIMs in order to improve air-sea interaction. A detailed description of the characteristics of the East Asian summer and winter climate will be presented through the high-resolution numerical simulations. The increase in horizontal resolution is expected to provide the high-quality data that can be used in various application areas such as hydrology or environmental model forcing.

Is the climate system an anticipatory system that minimizes free energy?

Science.gov (United States)

Rubin, Sergio; Crucifix, Michel

2017-04-01

All systems, whether they are alive or not are structured determined systems, i.e. their present states [x (t)] depends of past states [x (t - α)]. However it has been suggested [Rosen, 1985; Friston, 2013] that systems that contain life are capable of anticipation and active inference. The underlying principle is that state changes in living systems are best modelled as a function of past and future states [ x(t) = f (x (t - α), x(t), x (t + β)) ]. The reason for this is that living systems contain a predictive model of their ambiance on which they are active: they appear to model their ambiance to preserve their integrity and homeorhesis. We therefore formulate the following hypothesis: can the climate system be interpreted as an anticipatory system that minimizes free energy? Can its variability (catastrophe, bifurcation and/or tipping points) be interpreted in terms of active inference and anticipation failure? Here we present a mathematical formulation of the climate system as an anticipatory system that minimizes free energy and its possible implication in the future climate predictability. References Rosen, R. (1985). Anticipatory systems. In Anticipatory systems (pp. 313-370). Springer New York. Friston, K. (2013). Life as we know it. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 10(86), 20130475.

Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

2013-10-15

To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

Oscillations in a simple climate-vegetation model

Science.gov (United States)

Rombouts, J.; Ghil, M.

2015-05-01

We formulate and analyze a simple dynamical systems model for climate-vegetation interaction. The planet we consider consists of a large ocean and a land surface on which vegetation can grow. The temperature affects vegetation growth on land and the amount of sea ice on the ocean. Conversely, vegetation and sea ice change the albedo of the planet, which in turn changes its energy balance and hence the temperature evolution. Our highly idealized, conceptual model is governed by two nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations, one for global temperature, the other for vegetation cover. The model exhibits either bistability between a vegetated and a desert state or oscillatory behavior. The oscillations arise through a Hopf bifurcation off the vegetated state, when the death rate of vegetation is low enough. These oscillations are anharmonic and exhibit a sawtooth shape that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of the sharp deglaciations of the Quaternary. Our model's behavior can be compared, on the one hand, with the bistability of even simpler, Daisyworld-style climate-vegetation models. On the other hand, it can be integrated into the hierarchy of models trying to simulate and explain oscillatory behavior in the climate system. Rigorous mathematical results are obtained that link the nature of the feedbacks with the nature and the stability of the solutions. The relevance of model results to climate variability on various timescales is discussed.

Effective climate-energy solutions, escape routes and peak oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. van den

2012-01-01

Many well-intended climate-energy strategies are ineffective in the absence of serious environmental regulation. This holds, among others, for direct support of clean energy, voluntary energy conservation, technical standards on a limited set of products, unilateral stringent carbon pricing, and awaiting peak oil as a climate strategy. All of these suffer from “escape routes” that indirectly increase CO 2 emissions and thus make the original strategy ineffective. On the other hand, environmental regulation alone may lead to a myopia-bias, stimulating early dominance of cost-effective technologies and a focus on incremental innovations associated with such technologies rather than on radical innovations. Although adopting a partial viewpoint keeps the analysis simple, we urgently need a more inclusive systems perspective on climate solutions. This will allow the formulation of an effective climate policy package that addresses the various escape routes. - Highlights: ► Many well-intended climate-energy strategies are ineffective because of escape routes. ► In this context the relationship between peak oil and climate policy receives attention. ► Environmental regulation alone creates myopia-bias, the resolution of which requires technology-specific policies. ► To formulate an effective climate policy package an inclusive systems perspective is needed.

Warming impact on energy use of HVAC system in buildings of different thermal qualities and in different climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kharseh, Mohamad; Altorkmany, Lobna; Al-Khawaj, Mohammed; Hassani, Ferri

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Improving TQBE reduces heating load, while it might increase cooling load. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC varies from one climate to another. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC depends on building’s thermal quality. • In mild climate, warming does not have a significant impact on energy use of HVAC. - Abstract: In order to combat climate change, energy use in the building must be further reduced. Heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in residential buildings account for considerable fraction of global energy consumption. The potential contribution the domestic sector can make in reducing energy consumption is recognized worldwide. The driving energy of HVACs depends on the thermal quality of the building envelope (TQBE) and outside temperature. Definitely, building regulations are changing with the time toward reduce the thermal loads of buildings. However, most of the existing residential buildings were built to lower TQBE. For instant, 72% of residential dwellings in the 15-EU were built before 1972. To investigate the impact of warming on driving energy of HVACs of a residential building a computer model was developed. Three climate categories/cities were considered, i.e. Stockholm (cold), Istanbul (mild), and Doha (hot). In each city, two buildings were modeled: one was assumed to be built according to the current local buildings regulations (standard TQBE), while the anther was built to lower TQBE. The simulations were run for present and future (in 2050) outdoor designing conditions. The calculations show that the impact of the warming on annual driving energy of HVACs (reduction or increase) depends very much on the climate category and on the TQBE. Based on the climate and TQBE, the change in annual HVACs energy varies from −7.4% (in cold climate) to 12.7% (in hot climate). In mild climate, it was shown that the warming does not have significant impact on annual HVACs energy. Improving the TQBE can

Grenelle de l'Environnement: the climate-energy assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

After having recalled the main principles of the French 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' environmental policy (integration of cost for climate and biodiversity in large project choices) and discussed the articulation with international and European challenges (international negotiations, EU ETS, adjustment taxes), this report presents and discusses the different commitments, objectives, demands and adopted measures in different sectors: buildings, transports, energy management, development of renewable energies, climate-energy contribution, agriculture, regions and urban planning

Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

1985-01-01

Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

Climate and Offshore Energy Resources.

Science.gov (United States)

1980-12-30

SECuRITY CL.ASSIPIcaTIoN OF, TIns PA@elm VaeVa CLMATE ANID OFFSHORE ENERGY RESOUACES A distinguished group of government officials, scientists, engineers...about the mech- anisms of climatic systems, and gaining a better understanding of the impact of climatic change on human resources.* He continued by...atmospheric constit- uents, but he particularly emphasized " changes " in C02. He suggested that the atmospheric conditions may be better now than they were half

North American energy relationships : clean energy and climate action : a North American collaboration : draft paper for discussion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, D.

2009-12-01

This paper discussed energy and climate policies and programs aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in North America. The aim of the study was to determine how energy production and use will impact policy responses to climate change and the development of clean energy technologies. Energy sectors in Canada, the United States and Mexico were outlined, and the relationships between the different countries and their energy systems were discussed. Energy policy drivers and infrastructure in each of the 3 countries were also discussed. The influence of energy security on energy trading, clean energy technology, and climate change policy was also investigated in order to identify barriers to future cooperation between the countries. Emerging areas of cooperation were outlined. Potential climate policy scenarios were reviewed, and the implications of a more highly integrated North American energy and climate policy were discussed. The study indicated that increased linkages between the Canadian and United States systems are likely in the future. 62 refs., 11 tabs., 7 figs.

Climate change helplessness and the (de)moralization of individual energy behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Salomon, Erika; Preston, Jesse L; Tannenbaum, Melanie B

2017-03-01

Although most people understand the threat of climate change, they do little to modify their own energy conservation behavior. One reason for this gap between belief and behavior may be that individual actions seem unimpactful and therefore are not morally relevant. This research investigates how climate change helplessness-belief that one's actions cannot affect climate change-can undermine the moralization of climate change and personal energy conservation. In Study 1, climate change efficacy predicted both moralization of energy use and energy conservation intentions beyond individual belief in climate change. In Studies 2 and 3, participants read information about climate change that varied in efficacy message, that is, whether individual actions (e.g., using less water, turning down heat) make a difference in the environment. Participants who read that their behavior made no meaningful impact reported weaker moralization and intentions (Study 2), and reported more energy consumption 1 week later (Study 3). Moreover, effects on intentions and actions were mediated by changes in moralization. We discuss ways to improve climate change messages to foster environmental efficacy and moralization of personal energy use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A Multi-Sector Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus in the US

Science.gov (United States)

McFarland, J.; Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

Energy and Climate. Bridging the Geopolitical Gaps

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slingerland, S.; Van den Heuvel, S.

2009-07-01

Climate change is a 'hot' subject as an international political topic, and finding more superlatives about climate change after last year' presentation of Al Gore's Inconvenient Truths is difficult. At the 2009 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen a successor has to be found to the present Kyoto Protocol. It is now generally recognized that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have a detrimental effect on the global climate, and emissions seem to increase even more rapidly than when the most pessimistic climate change scenarios are taken into account.1 Fossil energy use is mainly responsible for these emissions. However, despite increasing worldwide recognition that climate change is indeed a serious global problem and mounting rhetoric from political leaders, there is still little evidence that the fundamental changes needed to prevent the potential dangers of climate change are being addressed. This chapter argues that there are at least three geopolitical gaps that need to be closed in order to reach an effective agreement in Copenhagen in 2009. The gaps are closely related to the global political and economic structure of energy supply and demand. They concern a divide, firstly between the United States and Europe, secondly between industrialised and developing countries, and thirdly between fossil fuel exporting and importing countries.

Energy and Climate. Bridging the Geopolitical Gaps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slingerland, S.; Van den Heuvel, S.

2009-01-01

Climate change is a 'hot' subject as an international political topic, and finding more superlatives about climate change after last year' presentation of Al Gore's Inconvenient Truths is difficult. At the 2009 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen a successor has to be found to the present Kyoto Protocol. It is now generally recognized that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have a detrimental effect on the global climate, and emissions seem to increase even more rapidly than when the most pessimistic climate change scenarios are taken into account.1 Fossil energy use is mainly responsible for these emissions. However, despite increasing worldwide recognition that climate change is indeed a serious global problem and mounting rhetoric from political leaders, there is still little evidence that the fundamental changes needed to prevent the potential dangers of climate change are being addressed. This chapter argues that there are at least three geopolitical gaps that need to be closed in order to reach an effective agreement in Copenhagen in 2009. The gaps are closely related to the global political and economic structure of energy supply and demand. They concern a divide, firstly between the United States and Europe, secondly between industrialised and developing countries, and thirdly between fossil fuel exporting and importing countries.

Climate and energy use in glazed spaces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wall, M.

1996-11-01

One objective of the thesis has been to elucidate the relationship between building design and the climate, thermal comfort and energy requirements in different types of glazed spaces. Another object has been to study the effect of the glazed spaces on energy requirements in adjacent buildings. It has also been the object to develop a simple calculation method for the assessment of temperatures and energy requirements in glazed spaces. The research work has mainly comprised case studies of existing buildings with glazed spaces and energy balance calculations using both the developed steady-state method and a dynamic building energy simulation program. Parameters such as the geometry of the building, type of glazing, orientation, thermal inertia, airtightness, ventilation system and sunshades have been studied. These parameters are of different importance for each specific type of glazed space. In addition, the significance of each of these parameters varies for different types of glazed spaces. The developed calculation method estimates the minimum and mean temperature in glazed spaces and the energy requirements for heating and cooling. The effect of the glazed space on the energy requirement of the surrounding buildings can also be estimated. It is intended that the method should be applied during the preliminary design stage so that the effect which the design of the building will have on climate and energy requirement may be determined. The method may provide an insight into how glazed spaces behave with regard to climate and energy. 99 refs

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

2016-03-10

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

The nuclear energy like an option in Mexico before the climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernandez M, B.; Puente E, F.; Ortiz O, H. B.; Avila P, P.; Flores C, J.

2014-10-01

The current energy poverty, the future necessities of energy and the climatic change caused by the global warming, are factors that associates each, manifest with more clarity the unsustainable production way and energy consumption that demands the society in the current life. This work analyzes the nuclear energy generation like an alternative from the environmental view point that ties with the sustainable development and the formulation of energy use models that require the countries at global level. With this purpose were collected and reviewed documented data of the energy resources, current and future energy consumption and the international commitments of Mexico regarding to greenhouse gases reduction. For Mexico two implementation scenarios of nuclear reactors type BWR and A BWR were analyzed, in compliance with the goals and policy development established in the National Strategy of Climatic Change and the National Strategy of Energy; the scenarios were analyzed through the emissions to the air of CO 2 , (main gas of greenhouse effect) which avoids when the energy production is obtained by nuclear reactors instead of consumptions of traditional fuels, such as coal, diesel, natural gas and fuel oil. The obtained results reflect that the avoided emissions contribute from 4.2% until 40% to the national goal that Mexico has committed to the international community through the Convention Marco of the United Nations against the Climatic Change (CMNUCC). These results recommends to the nuclear energy like a sustainable energy solution on specific and current conditions for Mexico. (Author)

Modeling Innovations Advance Wind Energy Industry

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

In 1981, Glenn Research Center scientist Dr. Larry Viterna developed a model that predicted certain elements of wind turbine performance with far greater accuracy than previous methods. The model was met with derision from others in the wind energy industry, but years later, Viterna discovered it had become the most widely used method of its kind, enabling significant wind energy technologies-like the fixed pitch turbines produced by manufacturers like Aerostar Inc. of Westport, Massachusetts-that are providing sustainable, climate friendly energy sources today.

Energy, world should not chose nuclear energy to fight against climatic change. Nuclear and climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besson, S.

2007-06-01

This document proposes an abstract of the conclusions of an expert group, the Oxford Research Group, which criticizes the today boost in favor of the electricity from nuclear energy. They explain that the nuclear energy should not be a solution for the fight against the climatic change. (A.L.B.)

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Energy security and climate change: How oil endowment influences alternative vehicle innovation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jung Eun

2014-01-01

Fast growing global energy needs raise concerns on energy supply security and climate change. Although policies addressing the two issues sometimes benefit one at the expense of the other, technology innovation, especially in alternative energy, provides a win–win solution to tackle both issues. This paper examines the effect of oil endowment on the patterns of technology innovation in the transportation sector, attempting to identify drivers of technology innovation in alternative energy. The analysis employs panel data constructed from patent data on five different types of automobile-related technologies from 1990 to 2002: oil extraction, petroleum refining, fuel cells, electric and hybrid vehicles (EHV) and vehicle energy efficiency. I find that countries with larger oil endowments perform less innovation on refining and alternative technologies. Conversely, higher gasoline prices positively impact the patent counts of alternative technologies and energy efficiency technology. The findings highlight the challenges and importance of policy designs in international climate change agreements. - Highlights: • I examine the effect of oil endowment on technology innovation in the transportation sector. • An empirical model was developed for a cross-country analysis of oil endowments. • A country's oil endowment is a negative driver of alternative technologies. • Energy price is a positive driver of alternative technologies and energy efficiency technology. • Implications for domestic and international climate policy are discussed

Climate Change, the Energy-water-food Nexus, and the "New" Colorado River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Middleton, R. S.; Bennett, K. E.; Solander, K.; Hopkins, E.

2017-12-01

Climate change, extremes, and climate-driven disturbances are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources, particularly in the western and southwestern United States. These unprecedented conditions—a no-analog future—will result in challenges to adaptation, mitigation, and resilience planning for the energy-water-food nexus. We have analyzed the impact of climate change on Colorado River flows for multiple climate and disturbance scenarios: 12 global climate models and two CO2 emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Coupled Model Intercomparison Study, version 5, and multiple climate-driven forest disturbance scenarios including temperature-drought vegetation mortality and insect infestations. Results indicate a wide range of potential streamflow projections and the potential emergence of a "new" Colorado River basin. Overall, annual streamflow tends to increase under the majority of modeled scenarios due to projected increases in precipitation across the basin, though a significant number of scenarios indicate moderate and potentially substantial reductions in water availability. However, all scenarios indicate severe changes in seasonality of flows and strong variability across headwater systems. This leads to increased fall and winter streamflow, strong reductions in spring and summer flows, and a shift towards earlier snowmelt timing. These impacts are further exacerbated in headwater systems, which are key to driving Colorado River streamflow and hence water supply for both internal and external basin needs. These results shed a new and important slant on the Colorado River basin, where an emergent streamflow pattern may result in difficulties to adjust to these new regimes, resulting in increased stress to the energy-water-food nexus.

World Energy Outlook Special Report 2013: Redrawing the Energy Climate Map

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-06-01

Governments have decided collectively that the world needs to limit the average global temperature increase to no more than 2°C and international negotiations are engaged to that end. Yet any resulting agreement will not emerge before 2015 and new legal obligations will not begin before 2020. Meanwhile, despite many countries taking new actions, the world is drifting further and further from the track it needs to follow. The energy sector is the single largest source of climate-changing greenhouse-gas emissions and limiting these is an essential focus of action. The World Energy Outlook has published detailed analysis of the energy contribution to climate change for many years. But, amid major international economic preoccupations, there are worrying signs that the issue of climate change has slipped down the policy agenda. This Special Report seeks to bring it right back on top by showing that the dilemma can be tackled at no net economic cost.

Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Han; Huang, Ye; Shen, Huizhong; Chen, Yilin; Ru, Muye; Chen, Yuanchen; Lin, Nan; Su, Shu; Zhuo, Shaojie; Zhong, Qirui; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Junfeng; Li, Bengang; Tao, Shu

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Space-for-time substitution was tested for seasonality of residential energy. • Regression models were developed to simulate global residential energy consumption. • Factors affecting the temporal trend in residential energy use were identified. • Climate warming will induce changes in residential energy use and emissions. - Abstract: Energy data are often reported on an annual basis. To address the climate and health impacts of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, seasonally resolved emissions inventories are needed. The seasonality of energy consumption is most affected by consumption in the residential sector. In this study, a set of regression models were developed based on temperature-related variables and a series of socioeconomic parameters to quantify global electricity and fuel consumption for the residential sector. The models were evaluated against observations and applied to simulate monthly changes in residential energy consumption and the resultant emissions of air pollutants. Changes in energy consumption are strongly affected by economic prosperity and population growth. Climate change, electricity prices, and urbanization also affect energy use. Climate warming will cause a net increase in electricity consumption and a decrease in fuel consumption by the residential sector. Consequently, emissions of CO_2, SO_2, and Hg are predicted to decrease, while emissions of incomplete combustion products are expected to increase. These changes vary regionally.

Energy modelling towards low carbon development of Beijing in 2030

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Guangling; Guerrero, Josep M.; Jiang, Kejun

2017-01-01

Beijing, as the capital of China, is under the high pressure of climate change and pollution. The consumption of non-renewable energy is one of the most important sources of the CO2 emissions, which cause climate changes. This paper presents a study on the energy system modelling towards renewabl...

Nuclear energy - the future climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ash, Eric Sir

2000-01-01

In June 1999, a report entitled Nuclear Energy-The Future Climate was published and was the result of a collaboration between the Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering. The report was the work of a group of nine people, made up of scientists, engineers and an economist, whose purpose was to attempt a new and objective look at the total energy scene and specifically the future role of nuclear energy. This paper discusses the findings of that report. (author)

Integrated assessment of global climate change with learning-by-doing and energy-related research and development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller-Fuerstenberger, Georg; Stephan, Gunter

2007-01-01

This paper presents a small-scale version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of global climate change, which is based on a global, regionally differentiated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with endogenous technological change. This model can be viewed as a basic framework for analyzing a broad range of economic issues related to climate change, in particular since technological change is represented in two ways: on the one hand, there is learning-by-doing (LbD) in non-fossil energy supply technologies, and on the other hand there is research and development (R and D)-driven energy-saving technical progress in production. Computational experiments are added for illustrating the role of technological innovation in a world both with and without cooperation in the solution of the global climate problem

Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2015-05-21

This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

Learning About Climate and Atmospheric Models Through Machine Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, D. D.

2017-12-01

From the analysis of ensemble variability to improving simulation performance, machine learning algorithms can play a powerful role in understanding the behavior of atmospheric and climate models. To learn about model behavior, we create training and testing data sets through ensemble techniques that sample different model configurations and values of input parameters, and then use supervised machine learning to map the relationships between the inputs and outputs. Following this procedure, we have used support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting and other methods to investigate a variety of atmospheric and climate model phenomena. We have used machine learning to predict simulation crashes, estimate the probability density function of climate sensitivity, optimize simulations of the Madden Julian oscillation, assess the impacts of weather and emissions uncertainty on atmospheric dispersion, and quantify the effects of model resolution changes on precipitation. This presentation highlights recent examples of our applications of machine learning to improve the understanding of climate and atmospheric models. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Energy security and climate change : a Canadian primer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonick, C.

2007-01-01

This book addresses the reality of climate change and peak oil, and emphasizes the need to make the transition from carbon energies to renewable energies. The book is a compilation of 18 leading authorities' work on energy use and its impact on the environment. Various solutions and sustainable alternatives to carbon energy are proposed. The book links fossil fuels, including oil sands, as a major cause of climate change. The book also addresses other topical issues, such as the nuclear revival, the U.S. energy act and electricity, carbon trading, and energy security in Canada. The authors emphasize the need to act in a proactive way to ensure a sustainable future. refs.

Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change

OpenAIRE

Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

2005-01-01

Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However, in common with other renewables, it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed, evidence indicates that wave heights have been changing over the last 40 years, although there is no proven link to global warming. Changes in the wave climate will impa...

Energy exporters and climate change. Potential economic impacts of climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wit, R.C.N.

1997-06-01

This review paper has been written on a commission by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London and is part of a project to investigate the possible impact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on energy markets and therefore on countries exporting oil, gas and coal. The aim of the project conducted by RIIA is to achieve a better understanding of the role of energy exporters in international climate change negotiations on the road towards the second Conference of Parties in Kyoto at the end of 1997 and the underlying national strategies. All four 'economy'-oriented global model studies reviewed in this paper indicate that CO2-reduction policies would cause wide differences in welfare effects across regions. It appears that energy-exporting countries would suffer the greatest welfare losses. Although several policy instruments can be implemented to achieve CO2-emission reductions, only carbon taxes are considered in the models. The model results show that if world level CO2 emissions are approximately stabilized at their 1990 levels, the cumulative losses in GDP of energy exporters generally range between 3% and 12% by 2010. It should be strongly emphasized that the sign and magnitude of the economic impact of CO2 policy on energy exporters depend critically on how the policy instrument is designed. In the case of a carbon tax the following factors are crucial: (1) the choice between a consumption and a production tax, (2) whether it is based on a global or unilateral agreement, (3) the mode of revenue redistribution among countries and (4) whether emission trading is allowed. 27 refs

Modelling energy systems for developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urban, F.; Benders, R.M.J.; Moll, H.C.

2007-01-01

Developing countries' energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries' energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban-rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements

Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edenhofer, O. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)); Pichs Madruga, R. (Centro de Investigaciones de la Economia Mundial (CIEM), Hanoi (Viet Nam)); Sokona, Y. (African Climate Policy Centre, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)) (and others)

2012-07-01

Climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems. Renewable energy sources have a large potential to displace emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and thereby to mitigate climate change. If implemented properly, renewable energy sources can contribute to social and economic development, to energy access, to a secure and sustainable energy supply, and to a reduction of negative impacts of energy provision on the environment and human health. This Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) impartially assesses the scientific literature on the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, academic researchers and civil society. It covers six renewable energy sources - bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. The authors also compare the levelized cost of energy from renewable energy sources to recent non-renewable energy costs. (Author)

The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Glenn A.; Warner, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

World population is projected to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, yet nearly one-fifth of the world's current 7.2 billion live without access to electricity. Though universal energy access is desirable, a significant reduction in fossil fuel usage is required before mid-century if global warming is to be limited to <2 °C. Here we quantify the changes in the global energy mix necessary to address population and climate change under two energy-use scenarios, finding that renewable energy production (9% in 2014) must comprise 87–94% of global energy consumption by 2100. Our study suggests >50% renewable energy needs to occur by 2028 in a <2 °C warming scenario, but not until 2054 in an unconstrained energy use scenario. Given the required rate and magnitude of this transition to renewable energy, it is unlikely that the <2 °C goal can be met. Focus should be placed on expanding renewable energy as quickly as possible in order to limit warming to 2.5–3 °C. - Highlights: •World population growth, energy scarcity, and climate are interrelated issues. •Non-renewable energy sources are projected to peak around mid-century. •Renewable energy must provide 50+% of total energy by 2028 to maintain <2 °C warming goal. •Renewable energy must provide 87+% of total energy by 2100 regardless of climate concerns.

Mexican energy and climate change policies in a North American context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, M.E.

2002-01-01

A review of Mexican energy and climate change policies was presented with reference to the implications for Mexico regarding energy supply, security and climate change policies. Mexico's development and energy indicators are considerably behind those of Canada and the United States, but its greenhouse gas emissions are also low in comparison. Mexican energy consumption and gross domestic product levels per capita are far below those of the United States and Canada. Although Mexico, a signatory of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, is not obligated to commit itself to any target greenhouse gas emissions, it has implemented an active climate change policy that promotes energy efficiency, fuel substitution, development of alternative energy sources, forest conservation and reforestation, and climate change research. The author concluded that in addition to constitutional reform, a fully integrated North American energy market would need physical connections for electricity and natural gas. 4 figs

Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

2017-12-01

Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingcai Li

Full Text Available Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382. The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Energy policy design and China’s local climate governance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ting, Guan; Delman, Jørgen

2017-01-01

This study probes into climate policy design at city level in China, with Hangzhou’s energy efficiency and renewable energy policies between 2005 and 2014 as a case. The study applies a political action arena approach to accentuate the importance of different normative preferences behind climate...

Climate change in the framework of external costs of energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayerhofer, P.

1994-01-01

Due to the continuing controversies concerning external costs of energy systems, the Commission of the European Union and the US-Department of Energy initiated a common project, External Costs of Fuel Cycles. The purpose of this project is to develop methodologies for the assessment of site-specific external costs on a marginal basis using a damage-function approach. For the assessment of climate change itself physical models are available. Here, the PC-model IMAGE developed by RIVM has been used for the time period up to 2100. Beyond this year, the carbon cycle is modeled with a response function. For the derivation of damage costs, a linear relationship between the global temperature change and the damage costs has been assumed. Thus, damage costs in the range of 0.10 to 0.53 US-cents/kWh for a discount rate of 3% are assessed for typical German fossil energy systems. The highest uncertainties are attached to the discount rate, the range for the climate sensitivity, and the forms of the global warming damage function. These points also have the strongest influence on the results. Hence, future research should be directed to the further analysis of these points. 30 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs

Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

Science.gov (United States)

Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

2016-06-01

Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

2000-06-01

A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

Peformance Tuning and Evaluation of a Parallel Community Climate Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drake, J.B.; Worley, P.H.; Hammond, S.

1999-11-13

The Parallel Community Climate Model (PCCM) is a message-passing parallelization of version 2.1 of the Community Climate Model (CCM) developed by researchers at Argonne and Oak Ridge National Laboratories and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the early to mid 1990s. In preparation for use in the Department of Energy's Parallel Climate Model (PCM), PCCM has recently been updated with new physics routines from version 3.2 of the CCM, improvements to the parallel implementation, and ports to the SGIKray Research T3E and Origin 2000. We describe our experience in porting and tuning PCCM on these new platforms, evaluating the performance of different parallel algorithm options and comparing performance between the T3E and Origin 2000.

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

2015-01-01

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

Compromises in energy policy-Using fuzzy optimization in an energy systems model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinsen, Dag; Krey, Volker

2008-01-01

Over the last year in Germany a great many political discussions have centered around the future direction of energy and climate policy. Due to a number of events related to energy prices, security of supply and climate change, it has been necessary to develop cornerstones for a new integrated energy and climate policy. To supplement this decision process, model-based scenarios were used. In this paper we introduce fuzzy constraints to obtain a better representation of political decision processes, in particular, to find compromises between often contradictory targets (e.g. economic, environmentally friendly and secure energy supply). A number of policy aims derived from a review of the ongoing political discussions were formulated as fuzzy constraints to explicitly include trade-offs between various targets. The result is an overall satisfaction level of about 60% contingent upon the following restrictions: share of energy imports, share of biofuels, share of CHP electricity, CO 2 reduction target and use of domestic hard coal. The restrictions for the share of renewable electricity, share of renewable heat, energy efficiency and postponement of nuclear phase out have higher membership function values, i.e. they are not binding and therefore get done on the side

The 2030 framework for climate and energy policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woersdoerfer, Mechthild [Directorate-General for Energy European Commission, Brussels (Belgium)

2015-05-01

In the light of experiences and lessons learnt from current energy and climate policies and the changing economic and energy market context, the Commission proposed a new framework for climate and energy policies for the period until 2030 on which the European Council reached an agreement on October 24, 2014. The framework is structured around four headline targets: a binding EU level target for domestic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 40 % compared to 1990 levels; a binding EU level target for the share of renewable energy of at least 27 %; an indicative EU level target for energy efficiency improvements of at least 27 % and an objective for electricity interconnections of 15 % in 2030.

The 2030 framework for climate and energy policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woersdoerfer, Mechthild

2015-01-01

In the light of experiences and lessons learnt from current energy and climate policies and the changing economic and energy market context, the Commission proposed a new framework for climate and energy policies for the period until 2030 on which the European Council reached an agreement on October 24, 2014. The framework is structured around four headline targets: a binding EU level target for domestic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 40 % compared to 1990 levels; a binding EU level target for the share of renewable energy of at least 27 %; an indicative EU level target for energy efficiency improvements of at least 27 % and an objective for electricity interconnections of 15 % in 2030.

Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector-A review of energy and climate models forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jun

2008-01-01

This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100-300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600-700 million metric tons of CO 2 emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO 2 emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades

Design Optimization of a Small-Scale Polygeneration Energy System in Different Climate Zones in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara Ghaem Sigarchian

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Design and performance of polygeneration energy systems are highly influenced by several variables, including the climate zone, which can affect the load profile as well as the availability of renewable energy sources. To investigate the effects, in this study, the design of a polygeneration system for identical residential buildings that are located in three different climate zones in Iran has been investigated. To perform the study, a model has previously developed by the author is used. The performance of the polygeneration system in terms of energy, economy and environment were compared to each other. The results show significant energetic and environmental benefits of the implementation of polygeneration systems in Iran, especially in the building that is located in a hot climate, with a high cooling demand and a low heating demand. Optimal polygeneration system for an identical building has achieved a 27% carbon dioxide emission reduction in the cold climate, while this value is around 41% in the hot climate. However, when considering the price of electricity and gas in the current energy market in Iran, none of the systems are feasible and financial support mechanisms or other incentives are required to promote the application of decentralized polygeneration energy systems.

Blackout: coal, climate and the last energy crisis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinberg, R. [Post Carbon Institute in California, CA (United States)

2009-07-15

Coal fuels more than 30 per cent of UK electricity production, and about 50 per cent in the US, providing a significant portion of total energy output. China and India's recent ferocious economic growth has been based almost entirely on coal-generated electricity. Coal currently looks like a solution to many of our fast-growing energy problems. However, while coal advocates are urging us full steam ahead, the increasing reliance on this dirtiest of all fossil fuels has crucial implications for energy policy, pollution levels, the global climate, world economy and geopolitics. Drawbacks to a coal-based energy strategy include: Scarcity - new studies suggest that the peak of world coal production may actually be less than two decades away; Cost - the quality of produced coal is declining, while the expense of transportation is rising, leading to spiralling costs and increasing shortages; and, Climate impacts - our ability to deal with the historic challenge of climate change may hinge on reducing coal consumption in future years.

Renewable energy and climate change

CERN Document Server

Quaschning, Volker

2010-01-01

This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

Space-time dependence between energy sources and climate related energy production

Science.gov (United States)

Engeland, Kolbjorn; Borga, Marco; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Tøfte, Lena; Warland, Geir

2014-05-01

The European Renewable Energy Directive adopted in 2009 focuses on achieving a 20% share of renewable energy in the EU overall energy mix by 2020. A major part of renewable energy production is related to climate, called "climate related energy" (CRE) production. CRE production systems (wind, solar, and hydropower) are characterized by a large degree of intermittency and variability on both short and long time scales due to the natural variability of climate variables. The main strategies to handle the variability of CRE production include energy-storage, -transport, -diversity and -information (smart grids). The three first strategies aim to smooth out the intermittency and variability of CRE production in time and space whereas the last strategy aims to provide a more optimal interaction between energy production and demand, i.e. to smooth out the residual load (the difference between demand and production). In order to increase the CRE share in the electricity system, it is essential to understand the space-time co-variability between the weather variables and CRE production under both current and future climates. This study presents a review of the literature that searches to tackle these problems. It reveals that the majority of studies deals with either a single CRE source or with the combination of two CREs, mostly wind and solar. This may be due to the fact that the most advanced countries in terms of wind equipment have also very little hydropower potential (Denmark, Ireland or UK, for instance). Hydropower is characterized by both a large storage capacity and flexibility in electricity production, and has therefore a large potential for both balancing and storing energy from wind- and solar-power. Several studies look at how to better connect regions with large share of hydropower (e.g., Scandinavia and the Alps) to regions with high shares of wind- and solar-power (e.g., green battery North-Sea net). Considering time scales, various studies consider wind

From macroeconomics of energy-climate policies to the convergence between climate and development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine

2016-01-01

After a brief presentation of her research curriculum, an indication of her various publications and contributions to conferences, the author presents her expertise works and her participation to national and international projects such as: Fairness in the post-2030 climatic regime, Towards an energetic autonomy in island and isolated territories, scenarios under a carbon constraint, comparative analysis of tools of implementation of multilateral agreements on the environment, mechanism for a clean development and domestic measures, Deep De-carbonation Pathway Project or DDPP, EncilowCarb engaging civil society in low carbon scenarios, climate and development or how to re-conciliate environmental constraints and national development policies, Developmental additionnality of the Clean Development Mechanism and public aid to development. In the next part, she proposes an overview of her research works by distinguishing two directions: a macro-economic analysis of climate policies integrating second raw elements (Imaclim-R France), and strategies of struggle against climate change integrated into development policies. In a third part, she discusses research perspectives regarding energy transition and natural resources, mankind in the energy transition, and the citizen (scenarios, democracy and energy transition) [fr

Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Welsch, M.

2015-01-01

KTH Royal Institute of Technology was founded in 1827 and it is the largest technical university in Sweden with five campuses and Around 15,000 students. KTH-dESA combines an outstanding knowledge in the field of energy systems analysis. This is demonstrated by the successful collaborations with many (UN) organizations. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa include Assessing renewable energy potentials; Analysing investment strategies; ) Assessing climate resilience; Comparing electrification options; Providing web-based decision support; and Quantifying energy access. It is conclude that Strategies required to ensure a robust and flexible energy system (-> no-regret choices); Capacity investments should be in line with national & regional strategies; Climate change important to consider, as it may strongly influence the energy flows in a region; Long-term models can help identify robust energy investment strategies and pathways that Can help assess future markets and profitability of individual projects

Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

Science.gov (United States)

Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

2017-12-01

Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

Costs and Benefits to EU Member States of 2030 Climate and Energy Targets - February 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

Costs and Benefits to EU Member States of 2030 Climate and Energy Targets is based on analyses using the POLES-Enerdata model and presents an overview of the main European energy and climate policies: reduction of CO_2 emissions, development of renewable energies, and promotion of energy efficiency. The report looks forward to 2030 and beyond to evaluate possible targets and the goal of maintaining global temperature rise to 2 deg. C. This publication was produced by Enerdata's Global Energy Forecasting team, including the modelling and scenario analysis, within the framework of an external service contract to the UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change. This project looks ahead to 2030. To do this, scenarios were developed using the POLES-Enerdata model, a world energy-economy model that fully describes the energy system and associated GHG emissions. This report analyses the costs and benefits to all EU Member States under different scenarios of the level and type of EU targets defined within a 2030 climate and energy framework. Scenarios include progressively more stringent GHG targets in 2030 (40%, 50%, and 60% reductions compared to 1990), alternative assumptions on access to international credits (0%, 5% and 10% of 1990 emissions), the addition of RES burden shares by Member State, accelerated CCS commercial availability and reduced renewables learning rates. These are the sensitivities commissioned as part of this report; however, they are not a comprehensive range covering all possible outcomes that could arise in reality. What are the costs and benefits to Member States under different scenarios of the level and type of EU targets? The analysis assesses the benefits of different scenarios to improved air quality and health, diversity of energy supply, and reduced costs of meeting longer term emission reduction targets (notably the EU's commitment to reduce emissions by 80-95% by 2050). Relying on more low-carbon, domestic, or diversified sources of

Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hertel, Thomas W; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

2012-07-01

Recent price spikes(1,2) have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades(3,4). However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors(5,6), which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change.

Energy and climate policy in China's twelfth five-year plan: A paradigm shift

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jun; Wang Xin

2012-01-01

The twelfth five-year plan (FYP) endorsed by the People's National Congress in March 2011 plays a crucial role in shaping China's development trajectory over the next decades , and especially for the fulfillment of the 40–45 carbon intensity reduction target by 2020. The plan will condition both the medium and long term perspectives of economic restructuring, rebalance between the inclusive economic growth and environmental objectives, which are compounded by multiple constraints faced by China such as aging population, natural resources depletion, energy supply security and environmental deterioration. This article investigates the major energy and climate targets and actions specified in the 12th FYP to gain insights into the nature and magnitude of challenges and difficulties with regard to the medium and long run economic and environmental policies. It points out that China should articulate sectoral policies with the global climate mitigation targets to avoid long term carbon lock-in. Based on an in-depth analysis of the objectives in the plan, it is argued that the implementation should include mainstreaming developments of appropriate instruments to support cost-effective energy efficiency improvements and carbon intensity reduction in the next five years. - Highlights: ► We investigate the major energy and climate targets and actions specified in the Chinese 12th FYP. ► It points out FYP's implications for energy policy and global climate stabilisation. ► Challenges and difficulties with regard to the medium and long run climate strategies. ► Shift from investment and export-led to consumption led sustainable and inclusive growth model.

Energy Assurance: Essential Energy Technologies for Climate Protection and Energy Security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greene, David L [ORNL; Boudreaux, Philip R [ORNL; Dean, David Jarvis [ORNL; Fulkerson, William [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Gaddis, Abigail [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Graham, Robin Lambert [ORNL; Graves, Ronald L [ORNL; Hopson, Dr Janet L [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Hughes, Patrick [ORNL; Lapsa, Melissa Voss [ORNL; Mason, Thom [ORNL; Standaert, Robert F [ORNL; Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL; Zucker, Alexander [ORNL

2009-12-01

We present and apply a new method for analyzing the significance of advanced technology for achieving two important national energy goals: climate protection and energy security. Quantitative metrics for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and oil independence in 2030 are specified, and the impacts of 11 sets of energy technologies are analyzed using a model that employs the Kaya identity and incorporates the uncertainty of technological breakthroughs. The goals examined are a 50% to 80% reduction in CO2 emissions from energy use by 2050 and increased domestic hydrocarbon fuels supply and decreased demand that sum to 11 mmbd by 2030. The latter is intended to insure that the economic costs of oil dependence are not more than 1% of U.S. GDP with 95% probability by 2030. Perhaps the most important implication of the analysis is that meeting both energy goals requires a high probability of success (much greater than even odds) for all 11 technologies. Two technologies appear to be indispensable for accomplishment of both goals: carbon capture and storage, and advanced fossil liquid fuels. For reducing CO2 by more than 50% by 2050, biomass energy and electric drive (fuel cell or battery powered) vehicles also appear to be necessary. Every one of the 11 technologies has a powerful influence on the probability of achieving national energy goals. From the perspective of technology policy, conflict between the CO2 mitigation and energy security is negligible. These general results appear to be robust to a wide range of technology impact estimates; they are substantially unchanged by a Monte Carlo simulation that allows the impacts of technologies to vary by 20%.

Climate change helplessness and the (de)moralization of individual energy behavior

OpenAIRE

Salomon, Erika; Preston, Jesse; Tannenbaum, Melanie B.

2017-01-01

Although most people understand the threat of climate change, they do little to modify their own energy conservation behavior. One reason for this gap between belief and behavior may be that individual actions seem un-impactful and therefore are not morally relevant. This research investigates how climate change helplessness—belief that one’s actions cannot affect climate change—can undermine the moralization of climate change and personal energy conservation. In Study 1, climate change effic...

An assessment of climate change impacts on micro-hydropower energy recovery in water supply networks

Science.gov (United States)

Brady, Jennifer; Patil, Sopan; McNabola, Aonghus; Gallagher, John; Coughlan, Paul; Harris, Ian; Packwood, Andrew; Williams, Prysor

2015-04-01

treatment works. This analysis is achieved through development of an empirical model utilising historical climatic data in conjunction with low, medium and high emission IPCC climate scenarios using the HADCM3 global climate model across a baseline condition and two further time steps. Results highlight projected alterations in flow rates together with the potential for increases in the frequency and persistence of drought/flooding events and the resulting impacts on future energy recovery. Critical climate change limits are also identified indicating the tolerable ranges within which hydropower recovery is financially viable, thus allowing for more informed decision making across potential sites.

Renewable and low-carbon energies as mitigation options of climate change for China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Urban, F.; Benders, R. M. J.; Moll, H. C.

This article discusses how renewable and low-carbon energies can serve as mitigation options of climate change in China's power sector. Our study is based on scenarios developed in PowerPlan, a bottom-up model simulating a countries' power sector and its emissions. We first adjusted the model to

Integrated energy and climate program without nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haller, W.

2007-01-01

Under the German EU Council presidency, the European Union adopted an ambitious climate protection program in spring this year which has consequences for the entire energy sector. A fair system of burden sharing is currently being sought on the level of the European Union. However, the German federal government does not wait for that agreement to be reached, but has added to the clearcut EU plans in order to achieve more climate protection. At the closed meeting of the federal cabinet in Meseberg on August 23-24, 2007, the key points of an integrated energy and climate program were adopted. The unprecedented set of measures comprises 30 points. In many cases, legal measures are required for implementation, which implies a heavy workload facing the federal government and parliament. A major step forward is seen in the federal government's intention to preserve the international competitiveness of the producing sector and energy-intensive industries also under changed framework conditions. The imperative guiding principle must be that care should take precedence over speed. European or worldwide solutions must be found for all measures, be it energy efficiency or climate protection, and all countries must be involved because, otherwise, specific measures taken by individual states will be ineffective. (orig.)

Climate Modeling in the Calculus and Differential Equations Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Kose, Emek; Kunze, Jennifer

2013-01-01

Students in college-level mathematics classes can build the differential equations of an energy balance model of the Earth's climate themselves, from a basic understanding of the background science. Here we use variable albedo and qualitative analysis to find stable and unstable equilibria of such a model, providing a problem or perhaps a…

Resource rents: The effects of energy taxes and quantity instruments for climate protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eisenack, Klaus; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Kalkuhl, Matthias

2012-01-01

Carbon dioxide emissions correspond to fossil resource use. When considering this supply side of climate protection, crucial questions come to fore. It seems likely that owners of fossil resources would object to emission reductions. Moreover, policy instruments such as taxes may not be effective at all: it seems individually rational to leave no fossil resources unused. In this context, it can be expected that economic sectors will react strategically to climate policy, aiming at a re-distribution of rents. To address these questions, we investigate the effectiveness, efficiency, and resource rents for energy taxes, resource taxes, and quantity rationing of emissions. The analysis is based on a game theoretic growth model with explicit factor markets and policy instruments. Market equilibrium depends on a government that acts as a Stackelberg leader with a climate protection goal. We find that resource taxes and quantity rationing achieve this objective efficiently, energy taxation is only second-best. The use of quantity rationing to achieve climate protection generates substantial rents for resource owners. - Highlights: ► Resource taxes and quantity rationing (carbon budgets) are efficient. ► Carbon budgets increase resource rents, while taxes decrease rents. ► Resource owners may support climate protection. ► Climate protection introduces a climate rent.

Energy security and climate change concerns: Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang, Guri, E-mail: guri.bang@cicero.uio.n [CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, P.O. Box 1129, 0318 Oslo (Norway)

2010-04-15

Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress-the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo.

Energy security and climate change concerns. Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang, Guri [CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, P.O. Box 1129, 0318 Oslo (Norway)

2010-04-15

Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress - the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo. (author)

Energy security and climate change concerns: Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bang, Guri

2010-01-01

Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress-the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo.

Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

2015-01-01

risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies - a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.......5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co......-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters...

Risk benefits of climate-friendly energy supply options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P.

2003-01-01

One of the central goals of sustainable development is the reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This is needed in order to prevent the anticipated climate change, and the potentially serious consequences for human beings and the environment. Energy supply systems constitute the dominant contributors to GHG emissions. This paper examines three illustrative emission scenarios for world-wide energy supply in the 21 st Century. These scenarios, including the associated GHG and major pollutant emissions, were chosen from a set established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using the emissions as a starting point, and based on recent findings concerning the impact on the environment and the financial costs resulting from global climate change on the one hand, and regional air pollution on the other hand, the present work provides estimates of the scenario-dependent, world-wide cumulative damage. The fossil-intensive reference scenario leads to overall damages which correspond to very substantial losses in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and which widely exceed the damages caused by the scenarios reflecting climate-friendly policies. Generally, the somewhat speculative estimates of the GHG-specific damages are much less significant than damages to human health and the environment caused by the major air pollutants. This means that the secondary benefits of climate-friendly, energy-supply options, i.e. those which avoid the impacts due to air pollution, alone justify strategies protecting the climate. (author)

Simulation-based method to determine climatic energy strategies of an adaptable building retrofit façade system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capeluto, I. Guedi; Ochoa, Carlos E.

2014-01-01

Vast amounts of the European residential stock were built with limited consideration for energy efficiency, yet its refurbishment can help reach national energy reduction goals, decreasing environmental impact. Short-term retrofits with reduced interference to inhabitants can be achieved by upgrading facades with elements that enhance energy efficiency and user comfort. The European Union-funded Meefs Retrofitting (Multifunctional Energy Efficient Façade System) project aims to develop an adaptable mass-produced facade system for energy improvement in existing residential buildings throughout the continent. This article presents a simplified methodology to identify preferred strategies and combinations for the early design stages of such system. This was derived from studying weather characteristics of European regions and outlining climatic energy-saving strategies based on human thermal comfort. Strategies were matched with conceptual technologies like glazing, shading and insulation. The typical building stock was characterized from statistics of previous European projects. Six improvements and combinations were modelled using a simulation model, identifying and ranking preferred configurations. The methodology is summarized in a synoptic scheme identifying the energy rankings of each improvement and combination for the studied climates and façade orientations. - Highlights: • First results of EU project for new energy efficient façade retrofit system. • System consists of prefabricated elements with multiple options for flexibility. • Modular strategies were determined that adapt to different climates. • Technologies matching the strategies were identified. • Presents a method for use and application in different climates across Europe

Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

Science.gov (United States)

Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

2012-12-01

Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy

Climate information for the application of solar energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robles-Gil, S.

1997-01-01

In view of population growth, industrialization and urbanization which provoked increasing energy demand there has been an increasing interest in developing new technologies that use various renewable energy sources and have less environmental impact, such as solar, wind, tidal and biomass. Solar energy is one of the energy resources with a wide geographical distribution. Nowadays, its contribution to the world's energy supply is very small, but it is considered an important long term option which will satisfy, together with conventional energy sources, the future energy needs of the world. The main objective of this work is to report the actual uses of the principal types of solar energy systems, based on their climatic, technological and economical context. This is to improve the dissemination of information on the application of climate knowledge and data, especially by national meteorological services, with the purpose to improve the planning, design and operation of solar energy systems, as well as facilitate their more widespread use

Potential recovery of industrial wood and energy wood raw material in different cutting and climate scenarios for Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaerkkaeinen, Leena; Nuutinen, Tuula; Matala, Juho; Kellomaeki, Seppo; Haerkoenen, Kari

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the simultaneous recovery of industrial wood and raw material for energy wood from cuttings in Finland during the next 50 years. Two cutting scenarios (maximum and sustainable cuttings) and two climate scenarios (current and changing climate) were analysed to determine their impacts on harvesting potential. The analysis was carried out using sample plot and tree data from the ninth National Forest Inventory and a management-oriented large-scale forestry model (MELA) into which the transfer functions based on physiological modelling were incorporated to describe the impacts of climate change. Depending on the climate scenario, the volume of potential recovery of industrial wood in the maximum cutting scenario during the period 2003-2013 varied from 103 to 105 million m 3 a -1 , while the amount of potential energy wood raw material was 35 Tg a -1 . During the period 2043-2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 64 million m 3 a -1 and energy wood raw material 22 Tg a -1 , and in the changing climate scenario, 85 million m 3 a -1 and 29 Tg a -1 , respectively. In the sustainable cutting scenario, depending on the climate scenario used, the potential recovery of industrial wood during the period 2003-2013 varied from 74 to 76 million m 3 a -1 , while the amount of potential energy wood was 25 Tg a -1 . During the period 2043-2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 80 million m 3 a -1 and energy wood raw material 26 Tg a -1 , and in the changing climate scenario, 88 million m 3 a -1 and 29 Tg a -1 , respectively. (author)

Modeling climate change impact in hospitality sector, using building resources consumption signature

Science.gov (United States)

Pinto, Armando; Bernardino, Mariana; Silva Santos, António; Pimpão Silva, Álvaro; Espírito Santo, Fátima

2016-04-01

Hotels are one of building types that consumes more energy and water per person and are vulnerable to climate change because in the occurrence of extreme events (heat waves, water stress) same failures could compromise the hotel services (comfort) and increase energy cost or compromise the landscape and amenities due to water use restrictions. Climate impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies require the knowledge about critical climatic variables and also the behaviour of building. To study the risk and vulnerability of buildings and hotels to climate change regarding resources consumption (energy and water), previous studies used building energy modelling simulation (BEMS) tools to study the variation in energy and water consumption. In general, the climate change impact in building is evaluated studying the energy and water demand of the building for future climate scenarios. But, hotels are complex buildings, quite different from each other and assumption done in simplified BEMS aren't calibrated and usually neglect some important hotel features leading to projected estimates that do not usually match hotel sector understanding and practice. Taking account all uncertainties, the use of building signature (statistical method) could be helpful to assess, in a more clear way, the impact of Climate Change in the hospitality sector and using a broad sample. Statistical analysis of the global energy consumption obtained from bills shows that the energy consumption may be predicted within 90% confidence interval only with the outdoor temperature. In this article a simplified methodology is presented and applied to identify the climate change impact in hospitality sector using the building energy and water signature. This methodology is applied to sixteen hotels (nine in Lisbon and seven in Algarve) with four and five stars rating. The results show that is expect an increase in water and electricity consumption (manly due to the increase in

High resolution climate scenarios for snowmelt modelling in small alpine catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Schirmer, M.; Peleg, N.; Burlando, P.; Jonas, T.

2017-12-01

Snow in the Alps is affected by climate change with regard to duration, timing and amount. This has implications with respect to important societal issues as drinking water supply or hydropower generation. In Switzerland, the latter received a lot of attention following the political decision to phase out of nuclear electricity production. An increasing number of authorization requests for small hydropower plants located in small alpine catchments was observed in the recent years. This situation generates ecological conflicts, while the expected climate change poses a threat to water availability thus putting at risk investments in such hydropower plants. Reliable high-resolution climate scenarios are thus required, which account for small-scale processes to achieve realistic predictions of snowmelt runoff and its variability in small alpine catchments. We therefore used a novel model chain by coupling a stochastic 2-dimensional weather generator (AWE-GEN-2d) with a state-of-the-art energy balance snow cover model (FSM). AWE-GEN-2d was applied to generate ensembles of climate variables at very fine temporal and spatial resolution, thus providing all climatic input variables required for the energy balance modelling. The land-surface model FSM was used to describe spatially variable snow cover accumulation and melt processes. The FSM was refined to allow applications at very high spatial resolution by specifically accounting for small-scale processes, such as a subgrid-parametrization of snow covered area or an improved representation of forest-snow processes. For the present study, the model chain was tested for current climate conditions using extensive observational dataset of different spatial and temporal coverage. Small-scale spatial processes such as elevation gradients or aspect differences in the snow distribution were evaluated using airborne LiDAR data. 40-year of monitoring data for snow water equivalent, snowmelt and snow-covered area for entire

Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2011-01-01

Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity. - Highlights: ► Bottom-up private car energy forecasting model developed. ► The demographic and technological distribution of vehicle activity is a key veriable. ► Irish car energy demand growth predicted to slow steadily. ► Change in vehicle taxation forecast to save 10% energy.

Effects of Vernacular Climatic Strategies (VCS on Energy Consumption in Common Residential Buildings in Southern Iran: The Case Study of Bushehr City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Mohammadi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This study aims to use the vernacular climatic strategies (VCS of traditional dwellings in Bushehr, in the common residential buildings of this southern Iranian city (which is characterized by its hot and humid climate, and provide answers to the following question: What effects do VCS have in terms of energy consumption in these buildings? This study has been conducted at three levels. At the first level, three context-based climatic solutions including shading, natural ventilation, and insulation of external walls and roofs were identified and selected based on bibliographic study. At the second level, a case study reflecting the current typology of common residential buildings in Bushehr city was selected. A combination of the mentioned climatic solutions was used in the baseline case to create a developed model. Based on the space layout of the developed model and some design criteria, a series of proposed models was also created and modeled. The selected case study building was also used to establish a local weather station at a height of 12 m based on the roof, collecting local climate data which were then used for simulation to improve simulation accuracy. Finally, all models were simulated with the use of Design Builder software under natural ventilation conditions during moderate climatic periods of the year while split air-conditioning systems were used during hot and humid periods. The results showed reductions of 16% in energy consumption and 22% in CO2 emissions for the developed model, and reductions of 24–26% in energy consumption and 32–34% in CO2 emissions for the proposed models, as compared with the baseline model. Furthermore, all proposed models achieved lower annual energy consumption when compared with a selection of international sustainable low energy standards and domestic energy performance references for the Middle East region. Further studies are also recommended, and there is potential for combining VCS with

Energy security of supply under EU climate policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenenberg, H.; Wetzelaer, B.J.H.W.

2006-12-01

The implications of various climate policies for the security of supply in the EU-25 were investigated. The security of supply was quantified using the Supply/Demand (S/D) Index. This index aggregates quantitative information on a country's energy system into one single figure. It takes a value between 0 and 100, with higher values indicating a more secure energy system. The S/D Index was calculated for the year 2020 based on the information in a series of policy scenarios, including a baseline (S/D Index 50.7), an energy efficiency scenario (53.8), two renewable energy scenarios (52.6 and 53.3) and two scenarios with combined policies (55.9 and 55.6).The S/D Index proved a useful indicator for assessing the implications of climate policies for the security of supply. As climate policies become more stringent, CO2 index fall, and the S/D index increases. The magnitude of the changes in the two indices is not always similar however. Major falls in CO2 indices in the order of 20% for two scenarios with combined energy efficiency and renewable energy polices lead to less noteworthy improvements in the associated S/D indices. Nevertheless, this combination of policies leads to the greatest improvements in the security of supply

Determining energy and climate market policy using multiobjective programs with equilibrium constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqui, Sauleh; Christensen, Adam

2016-01-01

Energy and climate market policy is inherently multiobjective and multilevel, in that desired choices often conflict and are made at a higher level than influenced actors. Analyzing tradeoff between reducing emissions and keeping fuel prices low, while seeking compromise among producers, traders, and consumers is the crux of the policy problem. This paper aims to address this issue by combining multiobjective optimization problems, which allow the study of tradeoff between choices, with equilibrium problems that model the networks and players over which these policies are chosen, to produce a formulation called a Multiobjective Program with Equilibrium Constraints. We apply this formulation to the United States renewable fuel market to help understand why it has been so difficult in releasing the 2014 mandate for the RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard). The RFS ensures that a minimum volume of renewable fuel is included in transportation fuel sold in the United States. Determining the RFS volume requirements involves anticipating market reaction as well as balancing policy objectives. We provide policy alternatives to aid in setting these volume obligations that are applicable to a wide variety of climate and energy market settings and explain why the RFS is not an optimal policy for reducing emissions. - Highlights: • First time a MOPEC has been used to model energy markets and climate policy. • Method to endogenously determine energy policy along with associated tradeoff. • Computationally efficient algorithm for MOPECs and compare to methods. • Explain why the RFS is not an optimal policy for emission reduction.

A climate-change policy induced shift from innovations in carbon-energy production to carbon-energy savings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerlagh, Reyer

2008-01-01

We develop an endogenous growth model with capital, labor and carbon-energy as production factors and three technology variables that measure accumulated innovations for carbon-energy production, carbon-energy savings, and neutral growth. All markets are complete and perfect, except for research, for which we assume that the marginal social benefits exceed the marginal private benefits by factor four. The model constants are calibrated so that the model reproduces the relevant global trends over the 1970-2000 period. The model contains a simple climate module, and is used to assess the impact of Induced Technological Change (ITC) for a policy that aims at a maximum level of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (450 ppmv). ITC is shown to reduce the required carbon tax by more than a factor 2, and to reduce costs of such a policy by half. When we do not constrain aggregate R and D expenditures to benchmark levels, costs are further reduced. Numerical simulations show that knowledge accumulation shifts from energy production to energy saving technology. We discuss reasons for differences between our results and earlier results reported in the literature. (author)

Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petersen, Mark Roger [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division

2016-09-12

The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolution below ice shelves and near grounding lines.

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

Climate change, energy, sustainability and pavements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopalakrishnan, Kasthurirangan; Steyn, Wynand JvdM; Harvey, John

2014-01-01

Provides an integrated perspective on understanding the impacts of climate change, energy and sustainable development on transportation infrastructure systems. Presents recent technological innovations and emerging concepts in the field of green and sustainable transportation infrastructure systems with a special focus on highway and airport pavements. Written by leading experts in the field. Climate change, energy production and consumption, and the need to improve the sustainability of all aspects of human activity are key inter-related issues for which solutions must be found and implemented quickly and efficiently. To be successfully implemented, solutions must recognize the rapidly changing socio-techno-political environment and multi-dimensional constraints presented by today's interconnected world. As part of this global effort, considerations of climate change impacts, energy demands, and incorporation of sustainability concepts have increasing importance in the design, construction, and maintenance of highway and airport pavement systems. To prepare the human capacity to develop and implement these solutions, many educators, policy-makers and practitioners have stressed the paramount importance of formally incorporating sustainability concepts in the civil engineering curriculum to educate and train future civil engineers well-equipped to address our current and future sustainability challenges. This book will prove a valuable resource in the hands of researchers, educators and future engineering leaders, most of whom will be working in multidisciplinary environments to address a host of next-generation sustainable transportation infrastructure challenges.

Climate change, energy, sustainability and pavements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gopalakrishnan, Kasthurirangan [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States). Dept. of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering; Steyn, Wynand JvdM [Pretoria Univ. (South Africa). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Harvey, John (ed.) [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

2014-07-01

Provides an integrated perspective on understanding the impacts of climate change, energy and sustainable development on transportation infrastructure systems. Presents recent technological innovations and emerging concepts in the field of green and sustainable transportation infrastructure systems with a special focus on highway and airport pavements. Written by leading experts in the field. Climate change, energy production and consumption, and the need to improve the sustainability of all aspects of human activity are key inter-related issues for which solutions must be found and implemented quickly and efficiently. To be successfully implemented, solutions must recognize the rapidly changing socio-techno-political environment and multi-dimensional constraints presented by today's interconnected world. As part of this global effort, considerations of climate change impacts, energy demands, and incorporation of sustainability concepts have increasing importance in the design, construction, and maintenance of highway and airport pavement systems. To prepare the human capacity to develop and implement these solutions, many educators, policy-makers and practitioners have stressed the paramount importance of formally incorporating sustainability concepts in the civil engineering curriculum to educate and train future civil engineers well-equipped to address our current and future sustainability challenges. This book will prove a valuable resource in the hands of researchers, educators and future engineering leaders, most of whom will be working in multidisciplinary environments to address a host of next-generation sustainable transportation infrastructure challenges.

Energy modelling towards low carbon development of Beijing in 2030

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Guangling; Guerrero, Josep M.; Jiang, Kejun

2017-01-01

Beijing, as the capacity capital of China, is under the pressure of climate change and pollution. Nonrenewable energy generation and consumption is one of the most important sources of CO2 emissions, which cause climate changes. This paper presents a study on the energy system modeling towards...... scenario 2030, (ii) BAU (business as usual) scenario 2030 and (iii) RES (renewable energies) scenario 2030. The results shows that the share of renewables can increase to 100% of electricity and heat production in the RE scenario. The primary fuel consumption is reduced to 155.9 TWh, which is 72 % of fuel...... renewable energy and low carbon development for the city of Beijing. The analysis of energy system modeling is organized in two steps to explore the potential renewable energy alternative in Beijing. Firstly, a reference energy system of Beijing is created based on the available data in 2014. The Energy...

A statistical adjustment approach for climate projections of snow conditions in mountain regions using energy balance land surface models

Science.gov (United States)

Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

2017-04-01

Projections of future climate change have been increasingly called for lately, as the reality of climate change has been gradually accepted and societies and governments have started to plan upcoming mitigation and adaptation policies. In mountain regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenue, particular attention is brought to current and future snow availability. The question of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as avalanches and debris-flows is also under consideration. In order to generate projections of snow conditions, however, downscaling global climate models (GCMs) by using regional climate models (RCMs) is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. In particular, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Simulations from GCMs and RCMs moreover suffer from biases compared to local observations, due to their rather coarse spatial and altitudinal resolution, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted using empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction methods, before they can be used to drive specific models such as energy balance land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees and the French Alps for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. We first introduce a thorough evaluation of the method using using model runs from the ALADIN RCM driven by a global reanalysis over the

Climate change, energy and sustainability: lessons from the Toronto-Niagara region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiotti, Q.

2001-01-01

It is widely recognized in the discourse on global environmental change that anthropogenic activities, and particularly the combustion of fossil fuels, are having a discernible impact on the earth's climate. Concern over a looming environmental crisis has led to an international response, initially with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992, followed by the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Much of the national debate on climate change has focused predominantly on the technological options to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and more directly on the costs associated with taking mitigation actions. However this focus has come at the expense of not fully considering other dimensions of climate change, specifically the costs associated with climate change impacts and effects, the costs of adaptation actions, and the co-benefits for environment and health that could result from GHG plus related emission reductions. This is perhaps most apparent in the discourse on climate change and energy, especially in regards to electricity generation, where there is greater attention directed at the implications of climate change policies rather than the actual impacts and effects arising from climate change. In this paper it is argued that the issue of climate change and energy needs to be examined within a broader conceptual framework. Situating climate change and electricity generation within this broader context is essential in developing a sustainable energy system. The paper is organized into four sections. In section one, the conceptual framework is described, highlighting the importance of considering all dimensions of climate change (vulnerability, co-benefits and costs) in developing a sustainable energy system. Section two focuses more directly upon the relationship between climate change impacts and the energy sector, specifically in terms of generation (nuclear, hydro, fossil fuel, and alternatives), distribution and transmission

Climatic threat, energy crisis, and illusions of a nuclear revival

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-10-01

While considering the example of the French nuclear reactor fleet, and while indicating various data concerning energy savings, CO 2 emissions, energy consumption in France and in other European countries, and also the occurrence of incidents in nuclear plants, this publication discusses the context of a climatic crisis, energy crisis, and of a possible nuclear revival boosted by the decreasing use of fossil energies to comply with the objective of reduction of greenhouse gases. It discusses the relationship a nuclear revival would have with climate change, with energy safety and with energy transition

The future of energy and climate

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2009-01-01

The talk will review some of the basic facts about the history and present status of the use of energy and its climatic consequences. It is clear that the world will have to change its way of energy production, the sooner the better. Because of the difficulty of storing electric energy, by far the best energy source for the future is thermal solar from the deserts, with overnight thermal storage. I will give some description of the present status of the technologies involved and end up with a pilot project for Europe and North Africa.

Quantifying the relevance of adaptive thermal comfort models in moderate thermal climate zones

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoof, Joost van; Hensen, Jan L.M. [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Vertigo 6.18, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands)

2007-01-15

Standards governing thermal comfort evaluation are on a constant cycle of revision and public review. One of the main topics being discussed in the latest round was the introduction of an adaptive thermal comfort model, which now forms an optional part of ASHRAE Standard 55. Also on a national level, adaptive thermal comfort guidelines come into being, such as in the Netherlands. This paper discusses two implementations of the adaptive comfort model in terms of usability and energy use for moderate maritime climate zones by means of literature study, a case study comprising temperature measurements, and building performance simulation. It is concluded that for moderate climate zones the adaptive model is only applicable during summer months, and can reduce energy for naturally conditioned buildings. However, the adaptive thermal comfort model has very limited application potential for such climates. Additionally we suggest a temperature parameter with a gradual course to replace the mean monthly outdoor air temperature to avoid step changes in optimum comfort temperatures. (author)

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin

2016-01-01

simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface...

Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results

Science.gov (United States)

Huebener, Heike; Hoffmann, Peter; Keuler, Klaus; Pfeifer, Susanne; Ramthun, Hans; Spekat, Arne; Steger, Christian; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten

2017-07-01

Communication between providers and users of climate model simulation results still needs to be improved. In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De a midterm user workshop was conducted to allow the intended users of the project results to assess the preliminary results and to streamline the final project results to their needs. The user feedback highlighted, in particular, the still considerable gap between climate research output and user-tailored input for climate impact research. Two major requests from the user community addressed the selection of sub-ensembles and some condensed, easy to understand information on the strengths and weaknesses of the climate models involved in the project.

PROPOSALS REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY FOR 2030

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MARIA POPESCU

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Climate policies are fundamental for the future of our planet, while a truly European energy policy is a key factor for our competitiveness.It`s mandatory a new European energy policy which must accept the real energetic motivations regarding sustainability and greenhouse gas, security of supply and dependence on imports, competitiveness and efficient functioning of the internal energy market. An ambitious target of 40% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases for 2030 is the cornerstone of the most efficient in terms of cost on our path towards a low-carbon dioxide. And at least 27% target for renewable energy is an important signal to investors to provide stability, boost green jobs and support security of supply. Using renewable energy sources (wind, solar and photovoltaic, biomass and biofuels, geothermal and heat pumps undeniably contributes to limiting climate change. In addition, it helps to secure energy supplies and to create and increase employment in Europe, thanks to increasing local energy production and consumption.

The Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Managing Energy Resources.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown Weiss, Edith

1982-04-01

Research and interviews with officials of the United States energy industry and a systems analysis of decision making in a natural gas utility lead to the conclusion that seasonal climate forecasts would only have limited value in fine tuning the management of energy supply, even if the forecasts were more reliable and detailed than at present.On the other hand, reliable forecasts could be useful to state and local governments both as a signal to adopt long-term measures to increase the efficiency of energy use and to initiate short-term measures to reduce energy demand in anticipation of a weather-induced energy crisis.To be useful for these purposes, state governments would need better data on energy demand patterns and available energy supplies, staff competent to interpret climate forecasts, and greater incentive to conserve. The use of seasonal climate forecasts is not likely to be constrained by fear of legal action by those claiming to be injured by a possible incorrect forecast.

The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

2014-01-01

A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2004-11-01

The Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools--Tropical Island Climates provides school boards, administrators, and design staff with guidance to help them make informed decisions about energy and environmental issues important to school systems and communities. These design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of your K-12 school in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into their construction or renovation plans, schools can significantly reduce energy consumption and costs.

Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

Science.gov (United States)

This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

Towards low carbon business park energy systems: Classification of techno-economic energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timmerman, Jonas; Vandevelde, Lieven; Van Eetvelde, Greet

2014-01-01

To mitigate climate destabilisation, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be curbed. A major share of these emissions originates from the industry and energy sectors. Hence, a low carbon shift in industrial and business park energy systems is called for. Low carbon business parks minimise energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by maximal exploitation of local renewable energy production, enhanced energy efficiency, and inter-firm heat exchange, combined in a collective energy system. The holistic approach of techno-economic energy models facilitates the design of such systems, while yielding an optimal trade-off between energetic, economic and environmental performances. However, no models custom-tailored for industrial park energy systems are detected in literature. In this paper, existing energy model classifications are scanned for adequate model characteristics and accordingly, a confined number of models are selected and described. Subsequently, a practical typology is proposed, existing of energy system evolution, optimisation, simulation, accounting and integration models, and key model features are compared. Finally, important features for a business park energy model are identified. - Highlights: • A holistic perspective on (low carbon) business park energy systems is introduced. • A new categorisation of techno-economic energy models is proposed. • Model characteristics are described per model category. • Essential model features for business park energy system modelling are identified. • A strategy towards a techno-economic energy model for business parks is proposed

'Sauvons le Climat' presents its '15 proposals of the National debate on energy transition'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This document presents the background, meaning and objectives of the 15 proposals made by 'Sauvons le Climat' (Save the Climate) within the French national debate on energy transition. These proposals are: a transition which gives an orientation on the long term and complies with France commitments; a transition by all and for all; priority to the struggle against energy poverty; integration of energy efficiency and sobriety in the growth model; to bring the whole built environment at a high level of thermal performance by 2030; for a sustainable mobility; energy transition as a competitiveness lever for France; energy transition as booster for rural world revival; a valorisation of French values and strengths; a resilient, diversified, balanced and competitive energy mix, marked by a development of renewable energies; to massively attract and orient investors towards energy transition; to strengthen local abilities in order to ease the decentralisation of the implementation of energy transition; to develop jobs, anticipate, prepare and be successful in professional transitions; a more ambitious and better coordinated European policy; to conduct and adapt energy transition

Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Zwaan, B.; Kober, T.; Calderon, S.; Clarke, L.; Daenzer, K.; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M.; Lucena, A.F.P.; Octaviano, C.; Di Sbroiavacca, N.

In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be

Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaroslav Solc

2009-06-01

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

An ecosystem approach to climate policy : the role of rural renewable energy design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venema, H.D.

2004-01-01

Climate change provides renewed importance to the issues of rural energy and the task of providing modern, sustainable energy services to the 2 billion people around the world who rely on biomass energy. Impoverished countries are most vulnerable to the adverse affects of climate change. The author argues that energy deprivation must be addressed in order to alleviate poverty, and that increased energy provision to the world's poor is not a development option, rather a basic necessity. The choices made in how that energy is delivered can either intensify climate change or mitigate it. There are many changes that are transforming the power sector. Deregulation is providing new business opportunities for independent power producers and contributing to the break up of vertically integrated power utilities. Ecosystem and community-based methods to rural development are contributing to the application of decentralized renewable energy source development. In countries such as India, policy-makers have legislated decentralized renewable energy systems. This study addresses the fact that there are no appropriate design tools for ecosystem-oriented rural energy planning. The author therefore presents a newly developed ecosystem-based approach to rural energy systems design whose main components include the use of a complex adaptive system theory to establish rural energy system design principles; a human energetics model for studying the influence of bioenergy resource accessibility; and spatial optimization methods for rural biomass energy planning. The approach was refined to include landscape structure optimization for biodiversity objectives using landscape ecology concepts in subregions of India. It was then generalized for regional-scale distributed renewable energy system designs with integrated bioenergy, wind and solar resource assessment

Energy Balance, Climate, and Life - Work of M. Budyko

Science.gov (United States)

Cahalan, Robert F.

2004-01-01

This talk will review the work of Mikhail I. Budyko, author of "Climate and Life" and many other works, who died recently at age 81, in St Petersburg, Russia. He directed the Division for Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute. We will explore Budyko's work in clarifying the role of energy balance in determining planetary climate, and the role of climate in regulating Earth s biosphere.

Energy Balance, Climate, and Life \\-- Work of M. Budyko

Science.gov (United States)

Cahalan, R. F.

2003-12-01

This talk will review the work of Mikhail I. Budyko, author of "Climate and Life" and many other works, who died recently at the age of 81 in St. Petersburg, Russia. He directed the Division for Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute. We will explore Budyko's work in clarifying the role of energy balance in determining planetary climate, and the role of climate in regulating Earth's biosphere.

On coupling global biome models with climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

2007-01-01

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development...

A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale

Science.gov (United States)

Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Park, Seon Ki

2011-11-01

The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson's rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.

Regionalizing global climate models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

2012-01-01

Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

Co-evolutionary organisational response development model (CORD): a case study of an Australian energy company climate change responses

OpenAIRE

Mishra, Kirti

2016-01-01

The thesis reports an investigation of the effects of the complex, evolving relationships between organisations and their environments. This examination is a case study of the responses of an Australian energy company to effects of climate change, and aims to enhance understanding of how organisational responses to climate change develop and evolve over time.    The impact of climate change on the contemporary organisational environment has multiple aspects – natural, ec...

Including climate change in energy investment decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ybema, J.R.; Boonekamp, P.G.M.; Smit, J.T.J.

1995-08-01

To properly take climate change into account in the analysis of energy investment decisions, it is required to apply decision analysis methods that are capable of considering the specific characteristics of climate change (large uncertainties, long term horizon). Such decision analysis methods do exist. They can explicitly include evolving uncertainties, multi-stage decisions, cumulative effects and risk averse attitudes. Various methods are considered in this report and two of these methods have been selected: hedging calculations and sensitivity analysis. These methods are applied to illustrative examples, and its limitations are discussed. The examples are (1a) space heating and hot water for new houses from a private investor perspective and (1b) as example (1a) but from a government perspective, (2) electricity production with an integrated coal gasification combined cycle (ICGCC) with or without CO 2 removal, and (3) national energy strategy to hedge for climate change. 9 figs., 21 tabs., 42 refs., 1 appendix

Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030: Synergies or trade-offs between economy, energy and climate security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qi-Min Chai

2014-12-01

Full Text Available China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025–2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually −0.2% in average and cumulatively −3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015–2030.

Report on broad reconsiderations. Part 1. Energy and Climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-04-01

In twenty policy areas various working groups have studied variants that can lead to a 20% budget cut in the government budgets of the Netherlands, which must be realized in 2015. The aim of the reconsiderations is to use less government means to realize the same results, or even better results if possible. The broad reconsideration in the field of energy and climate focuses on the expenditure for renewable energy and energy efficiency, mitigating (inter)national climate policy and fiscal benefits. This report addresses six policy variants. [nl

Modelling and observing urban climate in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Hove, B.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Heusinkveld, B.; Holtslag, B.; Jacobs, C.; Ter Maat, H.; Elbers, J.; Moors, E.

2011-06-01

The main aims of the present study are: (1) to evaluate the performance of two well-known mesoscale NWP (numerical weather prediction) models coupled to a UCM (Urban Canopy Models), and (2) to develop a proper measurement strategy for obtaining meteorological data that can be used in model evaluation studies. We choose the mesoscale models WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), respectively, because the partners in the present project have a large expertise with respect to these models. In addition WRF and RAMS have been successfully used in the meteorology and climate research communities for various purposes, including weather prediction and land-atmosphere interaction research. Recently, state-of-the-art UCM's were embedded within the land surface scheme of the respective models, in order to better represent the exchange of heat, momentum, and water vapour in the urban environment. Key questions addressed here are: What is the general model performance with respect to the urban environment?; How can useful and observational data be obtained that allow sensible validation and further parameterization of the models?; and Can the models be easily modified to simulate the urban climate under Dutch climatic conditions, urban configuration and morphology? Chapter 2 reviews the available Urban Canopy Models; we discuss their theoretical basis, the different representations of the urban environment, the required input and the output. Much of the information was obtained from the Urban Surface Energy Balance: Land Surface Scheme Comparison project (PILPS URBAN, PILPS stands for Project for Inter-comparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes). This project started in March 2008 and was coordinated by the Department of Geography, King's College London. In order to test the performance of our models we participated in this project. Chapter 3 discusses the main results of the first phase of PILPS URBAN. A first

A New Model to Simulate Energy Performance of VRF Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Tianzhen; Pang, Xiufeng; Schetrit, Oren; Wang, Liping; Kasahara, Shinichi; Yura, Yoshinori; Hinokuma, Ryohei

2014-03-30

This paper presents a new model to simulate energy performance of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems in heat pump operation mode (either cooling or heating is provided but not simultaneously). The main improvement of the new model is the introduction of the evaporating and condensing temperature in the indoor and outdoor unit capacity modifier functions. The independent variables in the capacity modifier functions of the existing VRF model in EnergyPlus are mainly room wet-bulb temperature and outdoor dry-bulb temperature in cooling mode and room dry-bulb temperature and outdoor wet-bulb temperature in heating mode. The new approach allows compliance with different specifications of each indoor unit so that the modeling accuracy is improved. The new VRF model was implemented in a custom version of EnergyPlus 7.2. This paper first describes the algorithm for the new VRF model, which is then used to simulate the energy performance of a VRF system in a Prototype House in California that complies with the requirements of Title 24 ? the California Building Energy Efficiency Standards. The VRF system performance is then compared with three other types of HVAC systems: the Title 24-2005 Baseline system, the traditional High Efficiency system, and the EnergyStar Heat Pump system in three typical California climates: Sunnyvale, Pasadena and Fresno. Calculated energy savings from the VRF systems are significant. The HVAC site energy savings range from 51 to 85percent, while the TDV (Time Dependent Valuation) energy savings range from 31 to 66percent compared to the Title 24 Baseline Systems across the three climates. The largest energy savings are in Fresno climate followed by Sunnyvale and Pasadena. The paper discusses various characteristics of the VRF systems contributing to the energy savings. It should be noted that these savings are calculated using the Title 24 prototype House D under standard operating conditions. Actual performance of the VRF systems for real