WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate models energy

  1. Geospatial Issues in Energy-Climate Modeling: Implications for Modelers, Economists, Climate Scientists and Policy Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newmark, R. L.; Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Short, W.

    2010-12-01

    Accurate characterizations of renewable energy technologies, particularly wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, require an increasingly sophisticated understanding of location-specific attributes, including generation or production costs and the cost of transmission or transportation to a point of use, and climate induced changes to the resource base. Capturing these site-specific characteristics in national and global models presents both unique opportunities and challenges. National and global decisions, ideally, should be informed by geospatially rich data and analysis. Here we describe issues related to and initial advances in representing renewable energy technologies in global models, and the resulting implications for climate stabilization analysis and global assessments, including IPCC’s Assessment Round 5 and IEA’s World Energy Outlook.

  2. Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Hawkins, Ed; Stolpe, Martin B.

    2016-10-01

    Climate risks increase with mean global temperature, so knowledge about the amount of future global warming should better inform risk assessments for policymakers. Expected near-term warming is encapsulated by the transient climate response (TCR), formally defined as the warming following 70 years of 1% per year increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, by which point atmospheric CO2 has doubled. Studies based on Earth's historical energy budget have typically estimated lower values of TCR than climate models, suggesting that some models could overestimate future warming. However, energy-budget estimates rely on historical temperature records that are geographically incomplete and blend air temperatures over land and sea ice with water temperatures over open oceans. We show that there is no evidence that climate models overestimate TCR when their output is processed in the same way as the HadCRUT4 observation-based temperature record. Models suggest that air-temperature warming is 24% greater than observed by HadCRUT4 over 1861-2009 because slower-warming regions are preferentially sampled and water warms less than air. Correcting for these biases and accounting for wider uncertainties in radiative forcing based on recent evidence, we infer an observation-based best estimate for TCR of 1.66 °C, with a 5-95% range of 1.0-3.3 °C, consistent with the climate models considered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.

  3. The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubincam, David

    2004-01-01

    A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold

  4. Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

  5. Web Service Based Approach to Link Heterogeneous Climate-Energy-Economy Models for Climate Change Mitigation Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Bulavskaya, Tatyana; Niamir, Leila; Dhavala, Kishore

    2016-01-01

    Climate change mitigation analysis requires understanding the causes and identifying the possible alternative actions that could be taken. We linked heterogeneous models that focus on climate, energy, and economy for the purpose of climate change mitigation. The models were originally developed to s

  6. An energy balance model of carbon's effect on climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Benney, Lucas

    2015-01-01

    Due to climate change, the interest of studying our climatic system using mathematical modeling has become tremendous in recent years. One well-known model is Budyko's system, which represents the coupled evolution of two variables, the ice-line and the average earth surface temperature. The system depends on natural parameters, such as the earth albedo, and the amount A of carbon in the atmosphere. We introduce a 3-dimensional extension of this model in which we regard A as the third coupled variable of the system. We analyze the phase space and dependence on parameters, looking for Hopf bifurcations and the birth of cycling behavior. We interpret the cycles as climatic oscillations triggered by the sensitivity in our regulation of carbon emissions at extreme temperatures.

  7. Combining climate and energy policies: synergies or antagonism? Modeling interactions with energy efficiency instruments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lecuyer, Oskar [EDF R and D - Efese, 1 av du General de Gaulle, 92141 Clamart (France)] [CIRED, 45 bis av de la Belle-Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne (France); Bibas, Ruben [CIRED, 45 bis av de la Belle-Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne (France)

    2012-01-15

    In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce GHG emissions and although a price on carbon tends also to give the right incentives for RE and EE, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single framework and to quantify the antagonistic effects of the joint promotion of RE and EE. We also show and quantify the effects of this joint promotion on ETS permit price, on wholesale market price and on energy production levels. (authors)

  8. Building Energy Use Modeling at the U.S. State Level Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Eom, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change plays an important role in building energy use for heating and cooling. As global building energy use accounts for as much as about 32% of global final energy consumption in 2005, the impact of climate change on greenhouse gas emissions may also be significant. As long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate impact on building energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into regional energy system planning. In this study, we have developed a detailed building energy model with U.S. 50-state representation, embedded in an integrated assessment framework (Global Change Assessment Model). The climate change impact on heating and cooling demand is measured through estimating heating and cooling degree days (HDD/CDDs) derived from MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) climate data and linking the estimates to the building energy model. Having the model calibrated against historical data at the U.S. state level, we estimated the building energy use in the 21st century at the U.S. state level and analyzed its spatial pattern. We have found that the total building energy use (heating and cooling) in U.S. states is over- or under-estimated without having climate feedback taken into account, and that the difference with and without climate feedback at the state level varies from -25% to 25% in reference scenario and -15% to 10% in climate mitigation scenario. The result not only confirms earlier finding that global warming leads to increased cooling and decreased heating energy use, it also indicates that climate change has a different impact on total building energy use at national and state level, exhibiting large spatial heterogeneity across states (Figure 1). The scale impact in building energy use modeling emphasizes the importance of developing a building energy model that represents socioeconomic development, energy service expansion, and

  9. Introduction of Energy and Climate Mitigation Policy Issues in Energy - Environment Model of Latvia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klavs, G.; Rekis, J.

    2016-12-01

    The present research is aimed at contributing to the Latvian national climate policy development by projecting total GHG emissions up to 2030, by evaluating the GHG emission reduction path in the non-ETS sector at different targets set for emissions reduction and by evaluating the obtained results within the context of the obligations defined by the EU 2030 policy framework for climate and energy. The method used in the research was bottom-up, linear programming optimisation model MARKAL code adapted as the MARKAL-Latvia model with improvements for perfecting the integrated assessment of climate policy. The modelling results in the baseline scenario, reflecting national economic development forecasts and comprising the existing GHG emissions reduction policies and measures, show that in 2030 emissions will increase by 19.1 % compared to 2005. GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030, compared to 2005, were researched in respective alternative scenarios. Detailed modelling and analysis of the Latvian situation according to the scenario of non-ETS sector GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030 compared to 2005 have revealed that to implement a cost effective strategy of GHG emissions reduction first of all a policy should be developed that ensures effective absorption of the available energy efficiency potential in all consumer sectors. The next group of emissions reduction measures includes all non-ETS sectors (industry, services, agriculture, transport, and waste management).

  10. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, Pernille, E-mail: Pernille.Seljom@ife.no [Department of Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology (IFE), PO Box 40, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun [Department of Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology (IFE), PO Box 40, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); Haugen, Jan Erik [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43 Blindern, NO-0313 Oslo (Norway); Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John [Department of Physics, University of Oslo (UiO), PO Box 1072 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo (Norway); Jarlset, Thore [Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), PO Box 5091 Majorstua, NO-0301 Oslo (Norway)

    2011-11-15

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: > Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. > An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. > Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. > Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  11. Climate stability for a Sellers-type model. [atmospheric diffusive energy balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.

    1976-01-01

    We study a diffusive energy-balance climate model governed by a nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation. Three positive steady-state solutions of this equation are found; they correspond to three possible climates of our planet: an interglacial (nearly identical to the present climate), a glacial, and a completely ice-covered earth. We consider also models similar to the main one studied, and determine the number of their steady states. All the models have albedo continuously varying with latitude and temperature, and entirely diffusive horizontal heat transfer. The diffusion is taken to be nonlinear as well as linear. We investigate the stability under small perturbations of the main model's climates. A stability criterion is derived, and its application shows that the 'present climate' and the 'deep freeze' are stable, whereas the model's glacial is unstable. A variational principle is introduced to confirm the results of this stability analysis. For a sufficient decrease in solar radiation (about 2%) the glacial and interglacial solutions disappear, leaving the ice-covered earth as the only possible climate.

  12. The impacts of climate change on energy: An aggregate expenditure model for the US

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, W. [Boston Univ., MA (United States); Mendelsohn, R. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

    1998-09-01

    This paper develops a theoretical model to measure the climate change impacts to the energy sector. Welfare effects are approximately equal to the resulting change in expenditures on energy and buildings. Using micro data on individuals and firms across the United States, energy expenditures are regressed on climate and other control variables to estimate both short-run and long-run climate response functions. The analysis suggests that energy expenditures have a quadratic U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. Future warming of 2 C is predicted to cause annual damages of about $6 billion but increases of 5 C would increase damages to almost $30 billion.

  13. Clouds and Precipitation Simulated by the US DOE Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, S.; Lin, W.; Yoon, J. H.; Ma, P. L.; Rasch, P. J.; Ghan, S.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Bogenschutz, P.; Gettelman, A.; Larson, V. E.; Neale, R. B.; Park, S.; Zhang, G. J.

    2015-12-01

    A new US Department of Energy (DOE) climate modeling effort is to develop an Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) to accelerate the development and application of fully coupled, state-of-the-art Earth system models for scientific and energy application. ACME is a high-resolution climate model with a 0.25 degree in horizontal and more than 60 levels in the vertical. It starts from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with notable changes to its physical parameterizations and other components. This presentation provides an overview on the ACME model's capability in simulating clouds and precipitation and its sensitivity to convection schemes. Results with using several state-of-the-art cumulus convection schemes, including those unified parameterizations that are being developed in the climate community, will be presented. These convection schemes are evaluated in a multi-scale framework including both short-range hindcasts and free-running climate simulations with both satellite data and ground-based measurements. Running climate model in short-range hindcasts has been proven to be an efficient way to understand model deficiencies. The analysis is focused on those systematic errors in clouds and precipitation simulations that are shared in many climate models. The goal is to understand what model deficiencies might be primarily responsible for these systematic errors.

  14. Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

    OpenAIRE

    Chiodi, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member S...

  15. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  16. Energetics of IPCC4AR Climate Models: Energy Balance and Meridional Enthalpy Transports

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2009-01-01

    We consider the climate simulations performed using pre-industrial and SRESA1B scenarios and analyse the outputs of the state-of-the-art models included in IPCC4AR. For control simulations, large energy biases are present for several models both when global climate budgets and when energy budgets of the atmospheric, oceanic, and land subdomains are considered. The energy biases depend on the imperfect closure of the energy cycle in the fluid components of the climate system and on issues in the treatment of phase transitions and heat fluxes over land. Additionally, the consequence of a positive global energy bias, which is what most models feature, is the underestimation of the thermodynamic emission temperature of the planet and of the globally averaged surface temperature. This may help explaining the cold bias of climate models. Models agree on the representation of meridional enthalpy transports in terms of location of the peaks of the total and atmospheric transports, whereas quantitative disagreements o...

  17. Informing energy and climate policies using energy systems models insights from scenario analysis increasing the evidence base

    CERN Document Server

    Giannakidis, George; Ó Gallachóir, Brian; Tosato, GianCarlo

    2015-01-01

    This book highlights how energy-system models are used to underpin and support energy and climate mitigation policy decisions at national, multi-country and global levels. It brings together, for the first time in one volume, a range of methodological approaches and case studies of good modeling practice on a national and international scale from the IEA-ETSAP energy technology initiative. It provides insights for the reader into the rich and varied applications of energy-system models and the underlying methodologies and policy questions they can address. The book demonstrates how these mode

  18. Climate-Energy Nexus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sayler, Gary; Gentry, Randall; Zhuang, Jie

    2010-07-01

    The 140-page published proceedings of the workshop include individual articles and PowerPoint slides for all workshop presentations. The proceedings also contain pertinent background information on the China-US Joint Research Center, partnering organizations, and workshop goals and objectives. Overall, the workshop increased the understanding of the impacts of climate change on energy use and renewable energy production as well as the complex relationships among land use, energy production, and ecological restoration. The workshop served as an international platform for scientists and students of different research backgrounds to develop a unified perspective on energy and climate relationships. Such understanding will benefit future cooperation between China and the US in mitigating global climate change. The workshop’s agenda, which is highly interdisciplinary, explored many potential opportunities for international collaboration in ecosystem management, climate modeling, greenhouse gas emissions, and bioenergy sustainability. International research groups have been suggested in the areas of genomes and biotechnology of energy plants, sustainable management of soil and water resources, carbon sequestration, and microbial processes for ecological cycles. The project has attracted considerable attention from institutes beyond the China-US Joint Research Center partners, and several of them (such as Institute of Qing-Tibet Plateau Research, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS) have expressed interest in joining the partnership. In addition, the workshop played a significant role in facilitating establishment of private-public partnerships between government and private bioenergy companies (such as L.R. Shugarts and Associates, Inc.), including seed providers (Blade Energy Crops, Thousand Oaks, CA), pilot demonstration projects at coal-producing cities (e.g., Huaibei, Anhui province, China), and the development of methodology

  19. ECLIPSE: An integrated energy-economy model for climate policy and scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turton, Hal [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2008-12-15

    This paper describes the development of the Energy and Climate Policy and Scenario Evaluation (ECLIPSE) model - a flexible integrated assessment tool for energy and climate change policy and scenario assessment. This tool builds on earlier efforts to link top-down and bottom-up models, and combines a macroeconomic energy demand model and a consumer-budget transport demand model with the technology-rich bottom-up energy and transport system model Energy Research and Investment Strategy (ERIS), and solves the models iteratively. Compared to previous efforts, ECLIPSE includes many new features, such as a more disaggregated production function, improved calibration and parameterization and separate modeling of passenger transport demand. The separate modeling of transportation makes ECLIPSE particularly well-suited to analyzing interactions between the transport sector and the broader energy market and economy. This paper presents results illustrating some features of the integrated model, compares technology deployment results with ECLIPSE and the bottom-up ERIS model, and briefly describes illustrative baseline and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios to highlight some of the features of the framework outlined in this paper. A number of modeling and policy insights arising from this scenario analysis are discussed. (author)

  20. Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

  1. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  2. Updated cloud physics in a regional atmospheric climate model improves the modelled surface energy balance of Antarctica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wessem, J.M.; Reijmer, C.H.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van de Berg, W.J.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Meijgaard, E.

    2014-01-01

    In this study the effects of changes in the physics package of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 on the modelled surface energy balance, nearsurface temperature and wind speed of Antarctica are presented. The physics package update primarily consists of an improved turbulent and radiativ

  3. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  4. Architecture, energy and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauring, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Architecture has always had to relate to climatic conditions while providing shelter from the sun, the rain, the winds or the cold. This is a main purpose of buildings: To establish an indoor climate different from the outdoor. In the Nordic countries fuels for heating buildings has been a vital...... necessity almost as basic as food and water, and lack of wood has caused illness and migration - scarcity of energy is not a new topic either [Kjærgaard]. The new aspects are that human civilization is in danger of causing severe global climate changes, secondly that we can foresee using up the global non......-renewable reserves of oil, gas and uranium, both aspects capable of pulling the carpet under human civilization itself as we know it. The huge energy consumption especially in the northern hemisphere is closely linked to industrialization, and the response from those aware of energy and climate problems has in some...

  5. Roles of energy conservation and climate feedback in Bjerknes compensation: a coupled modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Haijin; Yang, Haijun; Yin, Jie

    2016-10-01

    The roles of energy balance and climate feedback in Bjerknes compensation (BJC) are studied through wind-perturbation experiments in a coupled climate model. Shutting down surface winds over the ocean causes significant reductions in both wind-driven and thermohaline overturning circulations, leading to a remarkable decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT). The sea surface temperature (SST) responds with an increasing meridional gradient, resulting in a stronger Hadley Cell, and thus an enhanced atmosphere heat transport (AHT), compensating the OHT decrease. This is the so-called BJC. Coupled model experiments confirm that the occurrence of BJC is an intrinsic requirement of local energy conservation, and local climate feedback determines the degree of BJC, consistent with our previous theoretical results. Negative (positive or zero) local feedback results in AHT change undercompensating (overcompensating or perfectly compensating) OHT change. Using the radiative kernel technique, the general local feedback between the radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere and surface temperature can be partitioned into individual feedbacks that are related to perturbations in temperature, water vapor, surface albedo, and clouds. We find that the overcompensation in the tropics (extratropics) is mainly caused by positive feedbacks related to water vapor and clouds (surface albedo). The longwave feedbacks related to SST and atmospheric temperature are always negative and strong outside the tropics, well offsetting positive feedbacks in most regions and resulting in undercompensation. Different dominant feedbacks give different BJC scenarios at different regions, acting together to maintain the local energy balance.

  6. Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagemann, S.; Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Machenhauer, B.; Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Climate Research Division, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark); Jones, R. [Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, Bracknell (United Kingdom); Deque, M. [Meteo-France CNRM/GMGEC/EAC, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Vidale, P.L. [Climate Research ETH, Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2004-10-01

    This study presents a model intercomparison of four regional climate models (RCMs) and one variable resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) applied over Europe with special focus on the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. The models simulated the 15 years from 1979 to 1993 by using quasi-observed boundary conditions derived from ECMWF re-analyses (ERA). The model intercomparison focuses on two large atchments representing two different climate conditions covering two areas of major research interest within Europe. The first is the Danube catchment which represents a continental climate dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. It is used to analyse the common model error of a too dry and too warm simulation of the summertime climate of southeastern Europe. This summer warming and drying problem is seen in many RCMs, and to a less extent in GCMs. The second area is the Baltic Sea catchment which represents maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the Baltic Sea. This catchment is a research area of many studies within Europe and also covered by the BALTEX program. The observed data used are monthly mean surface air temperature, precipitation and river discharge. For all models, these are used to estimate mean monthly biases of all components of the hydrological cycle over land. In addition, the mean monthly deviations of the surface energy fluxes from ERA data are computed. Atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA are compared with those of one model to provide an independent estimate of the convergence bias derived from the observed data. These help to add weight to some of the inferred estimates and explain some of the discrepancies between them. An evaluation of these biases and deviations suggests possible sources of error in each of the models. For the Danube catchment, systematic errors in the dynamics cause the prominent summer drying problem for three of the RCMs, while for the fourth RCM this is

  7. ADVANCED ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: AN ANALYSIS USING THE GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENT MODEL (GCAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, J. A.; Wise, M. A.; MacCracken, C. N.

    1994-05-01

    We report results from a "top down" energy-economy model employing "bottom up" assumptions embedded in an integrated assessment framework, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The analys~s shows that from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences. in results from the "top down" and "bottom up" research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences In modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the m~ddleo f the eighteenth century. While all energy technologies play roles in reducing future fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. If biomass energy can be made available at $2.40/GJ or less in quantities sufficient to make it the core energy supply technology in the middle of the next century, then emissions can be cut dramatically relative to the reference case. The problem of emiss~ons reduction becomes one of technology development and deployment in this case, and not one of fiscal and regulatory intervention.

  8. The effect on Arctic climate of atmospheric meridional energy-transport changes studied based on the CESM climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand Graversen, Rune

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic amplification of global warming and the pronounced Arctic sea-ice retreat constitute some of the most alarming signs of global climate change. These Arctic changes are likely a consequence of a combination of several processes, for instance enhanced uptake of solar radiation in the Arctic due to a lowering of the planetary albedo, and increase in the local Arctic greenhouse effect due to enhanced moister flux from lower latitudes. Many of the proposed processes appear to be dependent on each other, for instance an increase in water-vapour advection to the Arctic enhances the greenhouse effect in the Arctic and the longwave radiation to the surface which melts the sea ice and causes an increase in absorption of solar radiation. The effects of albedo changes have been investigated in earlier studies based on model experiments designed to examine these effects specifically. Here we instead focus on the effects of meridional transport changes into the Arctic, both of water vapour and dry-static energy. Hence we here present results of model experiments with the CESM climate model designed specifically to extract the effects of the changes of the two transport components.

  9. A parametric study of the thermal performance of green roofs in different climates through energy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Sananda

    In recent years, there has been great interest in the potential of green roofs as an alternative roofing option to reduce the energy consumed by individual buildings as well as mitigate large scale urban environmental problems such as the heat island effect. There is a widespread recognition and a growing literature of measured data that suggest green roofs can reduce building energy consumption. This thesis investigates the potential of green roofs in reducing the building energy loads and focuses on how the different parameters of a green roof assembly affect the thermal performance of a building. A green roof assembly is modeled in Design Builder- a 3D graphical design modeling and energy use simulation program (interface) that uses the EnergyPlus simulation engine, and the simulated data set thus obtained is compared to field experiment data to validate the roof assembly model on the basis of how accurately it simulates the behavior of a green roof. Then the software is used to evaluate the thermal performance of several green roof assemblies under three different climate types, looking at the whole building energy consumption. For the purpose of this parametric simulation study, a prototypical single story small office building is considered and one parameter of the green roof is altered for each simulation run in order to understand its effect on building's energy loads. These parameters include different insulation thicknesses, leaf area indices (LAI) and growing medium or soil depth, each of which are tested under the three different climate types. The energy use intensities (EUIs), the peak and annual heating and cooling loads resulting from the use of these green roof assemblies are compared with each other and to a cool roof base case to determine the energy load reductions, if any. The heat flux through the roof is also evaluated and compared. The simulation results are then organized and finally presented as a decision support tool that would

  10. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  11. The ``Nordic`` HBV model. Description and documentation of the model version developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saelthun, N.R.

    1996-12-31

    The model described in this report is a version of the HBV model developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production. This was a Nordic project aimed at evaluating the impacts of the Scandinavian countries including Greenland with emphasis on hydropower production. The model incorporates many of the features found in individual versions of the HBV model in use in the Nordic countries, and some new ones. It has catchment subdivision in altitude intervals, a simple vegetation parametrization including interception, temperature based evapotranspiration calculation, lake evaporation, lake routing, glacier mass balance simulation, special functions for climate change simulations etc. The user interface is very basic, and the model is primarily intended for research and educational purposes. Commercial versions of the model should be used for operational implementations. 5 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Modeling the water-energy nexus under changing energy market and climate conditions: a case study in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denaro, Simona; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Fumagalli, Elena; Giuliani, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) have been already observed over the last few years and have produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies. This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system located in the Lake Como catchment. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e

  13. Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johansson, D.J.A.; Lucas, P.L.; Weitzel, M.; Ahlgren, E.O.; Bazaz, A.B.; Chen, W.; den Elzen, M.G.J.; Ghosh, J.; Grahn, M.; Liang, Q.M.; Peterson, S.; Pradhan, B.K.; van Ruijven, B.J.; Shukla, P.R.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Wei, Y.M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scal

  14. Achieving stringent climate targets. An analysis of the role of transport and variable renewable energies using energy-economy-climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietzcker, Robert Carl

    2014-07-01

    technologies photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in REMIND confirms the dominant role of these variable renewable energies for the decarbonization of the power sector. Recent cost reductions have brought PV to cost-competitiveness in regions with high midday electricity demand and high solar irradiance. The representation of system integration costs in REMIND is found to have significant impact on the competition between PV and CSP in the model: the low integration requirements of CSP equipped with thermal storage and hydrogen co-firing make CSP competitive at high shares of variable renewable energies, which leads to substantial deployment of both PV and CSP in low stabilization scenarios. A cross-model study of transport sector decarbonization confirms the earlier finding that the transport sector is not very reactive to intermediate carbon price levels: Until 2050, transport decarbonization lags 10-30 years behind the decarbonization of other sectors, and liquid fuels dominate the transport sector. In the long term, however, transportation does not seem to be an insurmountable barrier to stringent climate targets: As the price signals on CO{sub 2} increase further, transport emissions can be reduced substantially - if either hydrogen fuel cells or electromobility open a route to low-carbon energy carriers, or second generation biofuels (possibly in combination with CCS) allow the use of liquid-based transport modes with low emissions. The last study takes up the fundamental question of this thesis and analyses the trade-off between the stringency of a climate target and the resulting techno-economic requirements and costs. We find that transforming the global energy-economy system to keep a two-thirds likelihood of limiting global warming to below 2 C is achievable at moderate economic implications. This result is contingent on the near-term implementation of stringent global climate policies and full availability of several technologies that are still in

  15. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  16. Diffusive Heat Transport in Budyko's Energy Balance Climate Model with a Dynamic Ice Line

    CERN Document Server

    Walsh, James

    2016-01-01

    M. Budyko and W. Sellers independently introduced seminal energy balance climate models in 1969, each with a goal of investigating the role played by positive ice albedo feedback in climate dynamics. In this paper we replace the relaxation to the mean horizontal heat transport mechanism used in the models of Budyko and Sellers with diffusive heat transport. We couple the resulting surface temperature equation with an equation for movement of the edge of the ice sheet (called the ice line), recently introduced by E. Widiasih. We apply the spectral method to the temperature-ice line system and consider finite approximations. We prove there exists a stable equilibrium solution with a small ice cap, and an unstable equilibrium solution with a large ice cap, for a range of parameter values. If the diffusive transport is too efficient, however, the small ice cap disappears and an ice free Earth becomes a limiting state. In addition, we analyze a variant of the coupled diffusion equations appropriate as a model for ...

  17. Energy, environmental and climate assessment with the EPA MARKAL energy system modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    The energy system is comprised of the technologies and fuels that extend from the import or extraction of energy resources (e.g., mines and wells), through the conversion of these resources into useful forms (e.g., electricity and gasoline), to the technologies (e.g., cars, light...

  18. TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

  19. The mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: sensitivity to climate change as revealed by energy-balance modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1991-01-01

    The sensitivity of the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change is studied with an energy-balance model of the ice/snow surface, applied at 200 m elevation intervals for four characteristic regions of the ice sheet. Solar radiation, longwave radiation, turbulent heat fluxes and refr

  20. Climate of the Greenland ice sheet using a high-resolution climate model – Part 2: Near-surface climate and energy balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ettema

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The spatial variability of near-surface variables and surface energy balance components over the Greenland ice sheet are presented, using the output of a regional atmospheric climate model for the period 1958–2008. The model was evaluated in Part 1 of this paper.

    The near-surface temperature over the ice sheet is affected by surface elevation, latitude, longitude, large-scale and small-scale advection, occurrence of summer melt and mesoscale topographical features. The atmospheric boundary layer is characterised by a strong temperature inversion, due to continuous longwave cooling of the surface. In combination with a gently sloping surface the radiative loss maintains a persistent katabatic wind. This radiative heat loss is mainly balanced by turbulent sensible heat transport towards the surface. In summer, the surface is near radiative balance, resulting in lower wind speeds. Absorption of shortwave radiation and a positive subsurface heat flux due to refreezing melt water are heat sources for surface sublimation and melt.

    The strongest temperature deficits (>13 °C are found on the northeastern slopes, where the strongest katabatic winds (>9 m s−1 and lowest relative humidity (<65% occur. Due to strong large scale winds, clear sky (cloud cover <0.5 and a concave surface, a continuous supply of cold dry air is generated, which enhances the katabatic forcing and suppresses subsidence of potentially warmer free atmosphere air.

  1. Evaluation of energy efficiency in street lighting: model proposition considering climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaury Caruzzo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the impacts of climate variability on efficient electricity consumption in street lighting in Brazil. The Climate Demand Method (CDM was applied, and the energy savings achieved by Brazil’s National Efficient Street Lighting Program (ReLuz in 2005 were calculated, considering the monthly climatology of sunshine duration, disaggregated by county in Brazil. The total energy savings in street lighting in 2005 were estimated at 63 GWh/year or 1.39% higher than the value determined by ReLuz/Eletrobrás and there was a 15 MW reduction in demand in Brazil, considering the nearly 393,000 points in ReLuz served in 2005. The results indicate that, besides the difference in latitude, climate variability in different county increases the daily usage of street lighting up to 19%. Furthermore, Brazil’s large size means that seasonality patterns in energy savings are not homogeneous, and there is a correlation between the monthly variability in sunshine duration and the latitude of mesoregions. The CDM was also shown to be suitable for ranking mesoregions with the highest levels of energy saving lighting.

  2. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.

    a temperature index method. The delta change approach was used to generate synthetic precipitation and temperature data based on observations (1961-1990) and three regional climate models (2036-2065, CLM, RACMO and REMO). Because modelling generation on 1000+ hydropower plants is intractable, the capacities...... and marginal costs of the power producers. Two effects of climate change on the power system were studied: changes in the hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, and changes in the electricity demand over the year caused by temperature changes. A rainfall-runoff model...... was established to estimate the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on reservoir inflows. The model was calibrated using observed precipitation, temperature and river discharge time series. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated from temperature data, and snow accumulation/melt was modelled using...

  3. An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Robinson

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.

  4. Impacts of wave energy conversion devices on local wave climate: observations and modelling from the Perth Wave Energy Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeke, Ron; Hemer, Mark; Contardo, Stephanie; Symonds, Graham; Mcinnes, Kathy

    2016-04-01

    As demonstrated by the Australian Wave Energy Atlas (AWavEA), the southern and western margins of the country possess considerable wave energy resources. The Australia Government has made notable investments in pre-commercial wave energy developments in these areas, however little is known about how this technology may impact local wave climate and subsequently affect neighbouring coastal environments, e.g. altering sediment transport, causing shoreline erosion or accretion. In this study, a network of in-situ wave measurement devices have been deployed surrounding the 3 wave energy converters of the Carnegie Wave Energy Limited's Perth Wave Energy Project. This data is being used to develop, calibrate and validate numerical simulations of the project site. Early stage results will be presented and potential simulation strategies for scaling-up the findings to larger arrays of wave energy converters will be discussed. The intended project outcomes are to establish zones of impact defined in terms of changes in local wave energy spectra and to initiate best practice guidelines for the establishment of wave energy conversion sites.

  5. The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaillancourt, Kathleen [GERAD Research Center, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7 (Canada)], E-mail: kathleen.vaillancourt@gerad.ca; Labriet, Maryse [CIEMAT Research Center, Avenida Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Loulou, Richard [GERAD Research Center, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7 (Canada); McGill University, Faculty of Management, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Waaub, Jean-Philippe [GERAD Research Center, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7 (Canada); Departement de Geographie, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    2008-07-15

    There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000-2100). We present energy and emission results for climate scenarios for two levels of CO{sub 2} concentration (450 and 550 ppmv by 2100). We analyze the penetration level of nuclear energy under various sets of assumptions on technology parameters and exogenous constraints on nuclear development to reflect social perceptions. Nuclear energy technologies satisfy a large portion of electricity production in many regions. Most regions experience an energy transition based on advanced oil and gas technologies and hydropower. Other renewable technologies might play a more important role but need further cost reductions or new regulations to penetrate the market in substantial proportions. Carbon sequestration and endogenous demand reductions for energy services are also significantly contributing to reach environmental target.

  6. Comparison of Radiative Energy Flows in Observational Datasets and Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raschke, Ehrhard; Kinne, Stefan; Rossow, William B.; Stackhouse, Paul W. Jr.; Wild, Martin

    2016-01-01

    This study examines radiative flux distributions and local spread of values from three major observational datasets (CERES, ISCCP, and SRB) and compares them with results from climate modeling (CMIP3). Examinations of the spread and differences also differentiate among contributions from cloudy and clear-sky conditions. The spread among observational datasets is in large part caused by noncloud ancillary data. Average differences of at least 10Wm(exp -2) each for clear-sky downward solar, upward solar, and upward infrared fluxes at the surface demonstrate via spatial difference patterns major differences in assumptions for atmospheric aerosol, solar surface albedo and surface temperature, and/or emittance in observational datasets. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), observational datasets are less influenced by the ancillary data errors than at the surface. Comparisons of spatial radiative flux distributions at the TOA between observations and climate modeling indicate large deficiencies in the strength and distribution of model-simulated cloud radiative effects. Differences are largest for lower-altitude clouds over low-latitude oceans. Global modeling simulates stronger cloud radiative effects (CRE) by +30Wmexp -2) over trade wind cumulus regions, yet smaller CRE by about -30Wm(exp -2) over (smaller in area) stratocumulus regions. At the surface, climate modeling simulates on average about 15Wm(exp -2) smaller radiative net flux imbalances, as if climate modeling underestimates latent heat release (and precipitation). Relative to observational datasets, simulated surface net fluxes are particularly lower over oceanic trade wind regions (where global modeling tends to overestimate the radiative impact of clouds). Still, with the uncertainty in noncloud ancillary data, observational data do not establish a reliable reference.

  7. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere.

  8. Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Kober, Tom; Calderon, Silvia; Clarke, Leon; Daenzer, Katie; Kitous, Alban; Labriet, Maryse; Lucena, André F. P.; Octaviano, Claudia; Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas

    2016-05-01

    In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO2 emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two- to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050.Wefind that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, depending on which model is used. Also for CCS we observe large diversity in model outcomes, which reflects the uncertainties with regard to its future implementation potential as a result of

  9. Climate change impact assessment on mountain snow hydrology by water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatti, Asif M.; Koike, Toshio; Shrestha, Maheswor

    2016-12-01

    A water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model with improved snow physics (WEB-DHM-S) was applied to elucidate the impact of climate change on mountain snow hydrology in the Shubuto River basin, Hokkaido, Japan. The simulated spatial distribution of snow cover was evaluated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day maximum snow-cover extent (MOD10A2) product, which revealed the model's capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variations in snow cover within the study area. Four Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) were selected and the SRESA1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to describe climate predictions in the basin. All AOGCMs predict a future decrease in snowmelt contribution to total discharge 11-22% and an average decrease in SWE of 36%, with a shift in peak SWE by 4-14 days. The shift in runoff regime is broadly consistent between the AOGCMs with snowmelt-induced peak discharge expected to occur on average about two weeks earlier in the future hydrological year. The warming climate will drive a shift in runoff regime from a combined rainfall- and snowmelt-driven regime to one with a reduced contribution from snowmelt. The results of the study revealed that the model could be successfully applicable on the basin scale to simulate river discharge and snow processes and to investigate the effect of climate change on hydrological processes. This research contributes to improve the understanding of basin hydrological responses and the pace of change associated with climate variability.

  10. Strategies for Effective Implementation of Science Models into 6-9 Grade Classrooms on Climate, Weather, and Energy Topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarker, M. B.; Stanier, C. O.; Forbes, C.; Park, S.

    2011-12-01

    strategies middle school science teachers use to implement science models into their classrooms. These teachers in this study took part in a week-long professional development designed to orient them towards appropriate use of science models for a unit on weather, climate, and energy concepts. The goal of this project is to describe the professional development and describe how teachers intend to incorporate science models into each of their individual classrooms.

  11. Climate Change in New England | Energy and Global Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-10

    EPA Region 1's Energy and Climate Unit and Oceans and Coastal Unit provide information and technical assistance on climate change impacts and adaptation, resilience and preparedness to climate disruptions

  12. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  13. Analyzing and modeling CRE in a changing climate and energy system - a case study from Mid-Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tøfte, Lena S.; Sauterleute, Julian F.; Kolberg, Sjur A.; Warland, Geir

    2014-05-01

    Climate related energy (CRE) is influenced by both weather, the system for energy transport and market mechanisms. In the COMPLEX-project, Mid-Norway is a case study where we analyze co-fluctuations between wind and hydropower resources; how co-fluctuations may change in the long-term; which effects this has on the power generation; and how the hydropower system can be operated optimally in this context. In the region Mid-Norway, nearly all power demand is generated by hydro-electric facilities, and the region experiences a deficit of electricity. This is both due to energy deficiency and limitations in the power grid system. In periods of low inflow and situations with high electricity demand (i.e. winter), power must be imported from neighboring regions. In future, this situation might change with the development of renewable energy sources. The region is likely to experience considerable investments in wind power and small-scale hydropower. In relation to the deployment of wind power and small-scale hydropower and security of supply, the transmission grid within and out of the region is extended. With increasing production of intermittent energy sources as wind and small-scale hydro, dependencies and co-fluctuations between rain and wind are to be analyzed due to spatial and temporal scale, in the present and a future climate. Climate change scenarios agree on higher temperatures, more precipitation in total and a larger portion of the precipitation coming as rain in this region, and the average wind speed as well as the frequency of storms along the coast is expected to increase slightly during the winter. Changing temperatures will also change the electricity needs, as electricity is the main source for heating in Norway. It's important to study if and to which extent today's hydropower system and reservoirs are able to balance new intermittent energy sources in the region, in both today's and tomorrow's climate. The case study includes down-scaling of climate

  14. Anthropogenic climate change in an integrated energy balance model of global and urban warming

    OpenAIRE

    Sato, Kimitoshi

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an integrated energy balance model of global and urban warming in the attributes/functionings framework à la Gorman-Lancaster-Sen and proposes a Global Warming Function and an Urban Warming Function. Also presented is a concept of Heat Island Integral, which measures the difference of anthropogenic heat stocks between two regions. The model involves residents, producers such as offices and manufacturers, and landscape gardeners who play a very important role in cooling dow...

  15. Climate - Greenhouse effect - Energy; Klima - drivhuseffekt - energi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriksen, Thormod; Kanestroem, Ingolf

    2001-07-01

    This book explains what is understood by climate systems and the concept of greenhouse effect. It also gives a survey of the world's energy consumption, energy reserves and renewable energy sources. Today, 75 - 80 per cent of the world's energy consumption involves fossil fuel. These are the sources that cause the CO{sub 2} emissions. What are the possibilities of reducing the emissions? The world's population is increasing, and to provide food and a worthy life for everybody we have to use more energy. Where do we get this energy from without causing great climate changes and environmental changes? Should gas power plants be built in Norway? Should Swedish nuclear power plants be shut down, or is it advisable to concentrate on nuclear power, worldwide, this century, to reduce the CO{sub 2} emissions until the renewable energy sources have been developed and can take over once the petroleum sources have been depleted? The book also discusses the global magnetic field, which protects against particle radiation from space and which gives rise to the aurora borealis. The book is aimed at students taking environmental courses in universities and colleges, but is also of interest for anybody concerned about climate questions, energy sources and living standard.

  16. Climate of the Greenland ice sheet using a high-resolution climate model – Part 2: Near-surface climate and energy balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ettema

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The near-surface climate of the Greenland ice sheet is characterized by persistent katabatic winds and quasi-permanent temperature deficit. Using a high resolution (11 km regional climate model allows for detailed study of the spatial variability in these phenomena and the underlying atmospheric processes.

    The near-surface temperature distribution over the ice sheet is clearly affected by elevation, latitude, large scale advection, meso-scale topographic features and the occurrence of summer melt. The lowest annual temperatures of −30.5 °C are found north of the highest elevations of the GrIS, whereas the lowest southern margins are warmest (−3.5 °C.

    Over the ice sheet, a persistent katabatic wind system develops due to radiative surface cooling and the gently slope of the surface. The strongest wind speeds are seen in the northeast where the strong large scale winds, low cloud cover and concave surface force a continuous supply of cold air, which enhances the katabatic forcing. The radiative cooling of the surface is controlled by the net longwave emission and transport of heat towards the surface by turbulence. In summer this mechanism is much weaker, leading to less horizontal variability in near-surface temperatures and wind speed.

  17. Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2 - Simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peng; Chou, Ming-Dah; Arking, Albert

    1987-01-01

    The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

  18. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  19. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  20. Renewable energy and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Quaschning, Volker

    2010-01-01

    This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

  1. The Impact of Climate Change on the European Energy System

    OpenAIRE

    DOWLING PAUL

    2012-01-01

    Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. Most studies investigating the impact of climate change on the energy system have concentrated on the impact of changes in heating and cooling demand, but there are many energy sector impacts that remain unanalysed. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling...

  2. Quantifying the "Energy-Return-on-Investment" of desert greening in the Sahara/Sahel using a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowring, S. P. K.; Miller, L. M.; Ganzeveld, L.; Kleidon, A.

    2013-08-01

    "Greening" the world's deserts has been proposed as a way to produce additional food, sequester carbon, and alter the climate of desert regions. Here, we quantify the potential benefits in terms of energetic quantities and compare these to the energetic costs. We then compare these using the metric of Energy-Return-On-Investment (EROI). We apply EROI to a series of global climate model simulations where the arid Sahara/Sahel region is irrigated with various rates of desalinated water to produce biomass. The energy content of this biomass is greater than the energy input rate for a minimum irrigation rate of about 200 mm yr-1 in the winter and 500 mm yr-1 in the summer, thereby yielding an EROI ratio > 1 : 1, expressing energetic sustainability. Quantified annually, the EROI was > 1 : 1 for irrigation rates more than 500 mm yr-1, progressively increasing to a maximum of 1.8 : 1 with 900 mm yr-1, and then decreasing with further increases in the irrigation rate. Including the precipitation feedback arising from changes in moisture-recycling within the study region approximately doubles these EROI ratios. This overall result varies spatially and temporally, so while the entire Sahara/Sahel region is irrigated equally, the western coastal region from June to August had the highest EROI. Other factors would complicate such a large-scale modification of the Earth System, but this sensitivity study concludes that with a required energy input, desert greening may be energetically sustainable. Furthermore, we suggest that this type of EROI-analysis could be applied as a metric to assess a diverse range of human alterations to, and interventions within, the Earth System.

  3. Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030: Synergies or trade-offs between economy, energy and climate security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Min Chai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025–2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually −0.2% in average and cumulatively −3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015–2030.

  4. The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommenget, D.

    2013-12-01

    The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

  5. [Energy policy rather than climate policy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroonenberg, Salomon B

    2009-01-01

    Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

  6. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong and Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere. The model results indicate that both the high and low clouds are persistent throughout the summer months in both years. Because of large cloud water, low clouds significantly reduce the solar radiation flux reaching the surface, which nevertheless still dominate the surface energy balance, accounting for more than 50% of the surface heating. The low clouds also contribute significantly the downward longwave radiation to the surface with values strongly dependent on the cloud base temperature. The presence of low clouds effectively decreases the temperature and moisture gradients near surface, resulting in a substantial decrease in the sensible and latent heat fluxes from surface, which partially compensate the decrease of the net radiative cooling of the surface. For example, in the two days, May 8 and July 11 of 1988, the total cloud cover of 80% is simulated, but the respective low cloud cover (water was 63% (114 gm-2 and 22% (21 gm-2. As a result, the downward solar radiation is smaller by 161 Wm-2 in May 8. On the other hand, the cloud temperature was _ lower, yielding 56 Wm-2 smaller downward longwave radiation. The near surface temperature and gradient is more than _ smaller (and moisture gradient, leading to 21 and 81 Wm-2 smaller sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. It is also demonstrated that the model is capable to reproduce the intraseasonal variation of shortwave CRF, and catches the relationship between total cloud cover and SW CRF. The model results show the dominance of high cloud on the regional mean longwave CRF and low cloud on the intra

  7. Energy, climate, food and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erwin, Patricia J

    2008-01-01

    On June 3-5, 2008, international organizations and heads of state met in Rome to discuss the critical situation in global food supplies and prices during the World Food Crisis Summit. The intent of this column is to provide approaches to identifying the complex issues that impact public health, public safety, and nutrition on a global basis. The Web sites selected provide a background for the complex issues involved (energy, climate and environment, agriculture, and politics) and reveal controversial and competing agendas with many far-reaching implications.

  8. Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt, developed using the regional climate MAR model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Franco

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, 25 km-simulations are performed over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, using the regional climate model MAR forced by four RCP scenarios from two CMIP5 global circulation models, in order to investigate the projected changes of the surface energy balance (SEB components driving the surface melt. Analysis of 2000–2100 melt anomalies compared to melt results over 1980–1999 reveals an exponential relationship of the GrIS surface melt rate simulated by MAR to the near-surface temperature (TAS anomalies, mainly due to the surface albedo positive feedback associated with the extension of bare ice areas in summer. On the GrIS margins, the future melt anomalies are rather driven by stronger sensible heat fluxes, induced by enhanced warm air advections over the ice sheet. Over the central dry snow zone, the increase of melt surpasses the negative feedback from heavier snowfall inducing therefore a decrease of the summer surface albedo even at the top of the ice sheet. In addition to the incoming longwave flux increase associated to the atmosphere warming, MAR projects an increase of the cloud cover decreasing the ratio of the incoming shortwave versus longwave radiation and dampening the albedo feedback. However, it should be noted that this trend in the cloud cover is contrary to that simulated by ERA-INTERIM-forced MAR over current climate, where the observed melt increase since the 1990's seems rather to be a consequence of more anticyclonic atmospheric conditions. Finally, no significant change is projected in the length of the melt season. This timing highlights the importance of solar radiation in the melt SEB.

  9. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  10. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  11. Modeling high resolution space-time variations in energy demand/CO2 emissions of human inhabited landscapes in the United States under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godbole, A. V.; Gurney, K. R.

    2010-12-01

    With urban and exurban areas now accounting for more than 50% of the world's population, projected to increase 20% by 2050 (UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009), urban-climate interactions are of renewed interest to the climate change scientific community (Karl et. al, 1988; Kalnay and Cai, 2003; Seto and Shepherd, 2009). Until recently, climate modeling efforts treated urban-human systems as independent of the earth system. With studies pointing to the disproportionately large influence of urban areas on their surrounding environment (Small et. al, 2010), modeling efforts have begun to explicitly account for urban processes in land models, like the CLM 4.0 urban layer, for example (Oleson.et. al, 2008, 2010). A significant portion of the urban energy demand comes from the space heating and cooling requirement of the residential and commercial sectors - as much as 51% (DOE, RECS 2005) and 11% (Belzer, D. 2006) respectively, in the United States. Thus, these sectors are both responsible for a significant fraction of fossil fuel CO2 emissions and will be influenced by a changing climate through changes in energy use and energy supply planning. This points to the possibility of interactive processes and feedbacks with the climate system. Space conditioning energy demand is strongly driven by external air temperature (Ruth, M. et.al, 2006) in addition to other socio-economic variables such as building characteristics (age of structure, activity cycle, weekend/weekday usage profile), occupant characteristics (age of householder, household income) and energy prices (Huang, 2006; Santin et. al, 2009; Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009). All of these variables vary both in space and time. Projections of climate change have begun to simulate changes in temperature at much higher resolution than in the past (Diffenbaugh et. al, 2005). Hence, in order to understand how climate change and variability will potentially impact energy use/emissions and energy planning, these two

  12. Green Growth - an Illusion? Energy and Climate Risk: Rethinking our Developmental Models; La croissance verte, une illusion? Energie et risque climatique: repenser nos modeles de developpement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dessus, B. [Association Global Chance, 92 - Meudon (France)

    2011-04-15

    The years go by and international conferences come and go, with their quota of cries of alarm and calls to action to counter climate change. But in reality few large-scale programmes have been launched anywhere in the world involving concrete action to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. As one who has campaigned for many years for policies of energy consumption control, Benjamin Dessus shows here that the energy challenge is as great as it has ever been in a world of expanding populations in which most peoples aspire to reach the developmental level of the northern countries, despite the fact that our climate probably cannot support such a state of affairs. He argues here against a certain number of common suppositions, such as the idea of focussing exclusively on CO{sub 2} in the fight against global warming, the need for a continuous economic growth on the order of 2% per annum or excessive faith in market mechanisms to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. He also stresses the ambiguities of so-called 'green' growth and compares different energy conservation scenarios. In this way, he shows that, against a relatively dominant line of reasoning based largely on (at times near-utopian) technological solutions and the continuation of sustained economic growth, there are more effective paths based on individual/collective energy sobriety and a serious slowdown of economic growth in the most developed countries, if not indeed a total halt to that growth (though these are more ambitious in that they require a revolution in the behaviour of the most affluent peoples). He concludes by proposing some courses of action for implementing such a programme in a country like France, showing the extent to which modern modes of life are going to have to change and how urgent it now is to debate these matters, if such change is to be achieved without - excessive - pain. (author)

  13. Impacts of Boreal Forest Fires and Post-Fire Succession on Energy Budgets and Climate in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, B. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Bonan, G. B.

    2011-12-01

    Vegetation compositions of boreal forests are determined largely by recovery patterns after large-scale disturbances, the most notable of which is wildfire. Forest compositions exert large controls on regional energy and greenhouse gas budgets by affecting surface albedo, net radiation, turbulent energy fluxes, and carbon stocks. Impacts of boreal forest fires on climate are therefore products of direct fire effects, including charred surfaces and emitted aerosols and greenhouse gasses, and post-fire vegetation succession, which affects carbon and energy exchange for many decades after the initial disturbance. Climate changes are expected to be greatest at high latitudes, leading many to project increases in boreal forest fires. While numerous studies have documented the effects of post-fire landscape on energy and gas budgets in boreal forests, to date no continental analysis using a coupled model has been performed. In this study we quantified the effects of boreal forest fires and post-fire succession on regional and global climate using model experiments in the Community Earth System Model. We used 20th century climate data and MODIS vegetation continuous fields and land cover classes to identify boreal forests across North America and Eurasia. Historical fire return intervals were derived from a regression approach utilizing the Canadian and Alaskan Large Fire Databases, the Global Fire Emissions Database v3, and land cover and climate data. Succession trajectories were derived from the literature and MODIS land cover over known fire scars. Major improvements in model-data comparisons of long-term energy budgets were observed by prescribing post-fire vegetation succession. Global simulations using historical and future burn area scenarios highlight the potential impacts on climate from changing fire regimes and provide motivation for including vegetation succession in coupled simulations.

  14. Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change Impacts on Wind Energy Resources in the Contiguous United States by Using a Limited-Area Model with Scale-Selective Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a limited-area model (LAM in combination with the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA approach, wind energy resources in the contiguous United States (CONUS were downscaled from IPCC CCSM3 global model projections for both current and future climate conditions. An assessment of climate change impacts on wind energy resources in the CONUS region was then conducted. Based on the downscaling results, when projecting into future climate under IPCC’s A1B scenario, the average annual wind speed experiences an overall shift across the CONUS region. From the current climate to the 2040s, the average annual wind speed is expected to increase from 0.1 to 0.2 m s−1 over the Great Plains, Northern Great Lakes Region, and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rocky Mountains. When projecting into the 2090s from current climate, there is an overall increase in the Great Plains Region and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rockies with a mean wind speed increase between 0 and 0.1 m s−1, while, the Northern Great Lakes Region experiences an even greater increase from current climate to 2090s than over the first few decades with an increase of mean wind speed from 0.1 to 0.4 m s−1.

  15. Energy and climate policy in Europe; Energie- und Klimapolitik in Europa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This is a publication of the Baden-Wuerttemberg state center of political education (Landeszentrale fuer Politische Bildung Baden-Wuerttemberg) on energy policy and climate policy in Europe. It discusses the following aspects: Assured supply of energy and climate policy - incompatible goals? Climate policy and energy policy in a global system; Legitimation of the EU by successful energy policy and climate policy; Emission trading: Selling of indulgences or successful instrument? Energy policy in Europe after 1945; From a beacon of hope to a phase-out model? The future of nuclear power; The future of renewable energy sources in Europe. (orig./RHM)

  16. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...... to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and recipitation between the two models are included...

  17. Modelling Interglacial Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

    , with maximum warming occurring in winter. The three scenarios all affect the climate beyond the Arctic, especially the mid-latitude circulation which is sensitive to the location of the ice loss. Together, the results presented in this thesis illustrate that the changes in the Arctic sea ice cover......, while the insolation appears to be the dominant cause of the expected ice sheet reduction. The second part explores the atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming...... involves some of the same mechanisms in the two climate states. This thesis aims to investigate these mechanisms through climate model experiments. This two-part study has a special focus on the Arctic region, and the main paleoclimate experiments are supplemented by idealized experiments detailing...

  18. Scaling water and energy fluxes in climate systems - Three land-atmospheric modeling experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric F.; Lakshmi, Venkataraman

    1993-01-01

    Three numerical experiments that investigate the scaling of land-surface processes - either of the inputs or parameters - are reported, and the aggregated processes are compared to the spatially variable case. The first is the aggregation of the hydrologic response in a catchment due to rainfall during a storm event and due to evaporative demands during interstorm periods. The second is the spatial and temporal aggregation of latent heat fluxes, as calculated from SiB. The third is the aggregation of remotely sensed land vegetation and latent and sensible heat fluxes using TM data from the FIFE experiment of 1987 in Kansas. In all three experiments it was found that the surface fluxes and land characteristics can be scaled, and that macroscale models based on effective parameters are sufficient to account for the small-scale heterogeneities investigated.

  19. Exploring Air-Climate-Energy Impacts with GCAM-USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change and energy (ACE) goals. My research focuseson integration of impact factors in GCAM-USA and a...

  20. Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from

  1. Wind energy under cold climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B.

    1999-03-01

    There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)

  2. Modelling the water and energy balances of Amazonian rainforest and pasture using Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian climate observation study data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ashby, M.

    1999-01-01

    A soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model, SWAPS, is introduced. The model is based on existing models for two-layer evaporation and energy balance, interception evaporation and unsaturated soil moisture transport. The model includes a physically based parameterisation for the soil surface resista

  3. Climate predictions: the chaos and complexity in climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Mihailović, Dragutin T; Arsenić, Ilija

    2013-01-01

    Some issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Godel's Theorem and Rosen's definition of complexity and predictability is discussed. It is pointed out to occurrence of chaos in computing the environmental interface temperature from the energy balance equation given in a difference form. A coupled system of equations, often used in climate models is analyzed. It is shown that the Lyapunov exponent mostly has positive values allowing presence of chaos in this systems. The horizontal energy exchange between environmental interfaces, which is described by the dynamics of driven coupled oscillators, is analyzed. Their behavior and synchronization, when a perturbation is introduced in the system, as a function of the coupling parameters, the logistic parameter and the parameter of exchange, was studied calculating the Lyapunov expone...

  4. Climate and Energy Policy in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Csete

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The energy problem has been redefined as one of the most important elements of sustainable development by climate change, adaptation and mitigation. Meeting energy needs is always a current issue in Hungary, irrespective of climate change because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, limited opportunities to replace them with domestic production, and the pollution associated with using fossil energy sources. Increasing effectiveness and saving energy can provide relatively short-term solutions with bearable costs and a relatively quick return on investment. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview about the climate and energy policy in Hungary with a special focus on the new energy strategy. Energy policy has a pivotal role in the economic recovery plan of the Hungarian government. The National Energy Strategy 2030 taking shape in Hungary takes climate policy into account with respect to adaptation and mitigation and lists renewable energy sources as the second most important tool for achieving strategic goals. As in most countries, it is also possible in Hungary to introduce climate strategy measures with zero social costs. The expedient management of climate change requires the combination of prevention, adaptation and dissemination initiatives. Strategies must meet a dual requirement: they must face the economic risks associated with premature measures, while also considering the adverse effects of delay.

  5. Teacher challenges, perceptions, and use of science models in middle school classrooms about climate, weather, and energy concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarker, Morgan Brown

    Research suggests that scientific models and modeling should be topics covered in K-12 classrooms as part of a comprehensive science curriculum. It is especially important when talking about topics in weather and climate, where computer and forecast models are the center of attention. There are several approaches to model based inquiry, but it can be argued, theoretically, that science models can be effectively implemented into any approach to inquiry if they are utilized appropriately. Yet, it remains to be explored how science models are actually implemented in classrooms. This study qualitatively looks at three middle school science teachers' use of science models with various approaches to inquiry during their weather and climate units. Results indicate that the teacher who used the most elements of inquiry used models in a way that aligned best with the theoretical framework than the teachers who used fewer elements of inquiry. The theoretical framework compares an approach to argument-based inquiry to model-based inquiry, which argues that the approaches are essentially identical, so teachers who use inquiry should be able to apply model-based inquiry using the same approach. However, none of the teachers in this study had a complete understanding of the role models play in authentic science inquiry, therefore students were not explicitly exposed to the ideas that models can be used to make predictions about, and are representations of, a natural phenomenon. Rather, models were explicitly used to explain concepts to students or have students explain concepts to the teacher or to each other. Additionally, models were used as a focal point for conversation between students, usually as they were creating, modifying, or using models. Teachers were not observed asking students to evaluate models. Since science models are an important aspect of understanding science, it is important that teachers not only know how to implement models into an inquiry environment

  6. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  7. Long-term security of energy supply and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turton, H. [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria). ECS; Barreto, L. [Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen (Switzerland). Energy Economics Group

    2006-10-15

    Security of energy supply and climate change are central concerns for policy makers and important dimensions of the long-term quest for a sustainable global energy system. This paper examines the role of several policy instruments in managing energy security and climate risks and stimulating technological change towards a more secure and climate-benign global energy system in the long-term future. The analysis has been conducted with ERIS, a multi-regional energy-systems ''bottom-up'' optimization model with technology learning. Our analysis provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for security of supply policies to promote the uptake of new technologies, reduce the cost of pursuing climate change mitigation policies, and facilitate a possible transition to a hydrogen economy. (author)

  8. Long-term security of energy supply and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hal Turton; Leonardo Barreto [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria). Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS)

    2006-10-15

    Security of energy supply and climate change are central concerns for policy makers and important dimensions of the long-term quest for a sustainable global energy system. This paper examines the role of several policy instruments in managing energy security and climate risks and stimulating technological change towards a more secure and climate-benign global energy system in the long-term future. The analysis has been conducted with ERIS, a multi-regional energy-systems 'bottom-up' optimization model with technology learning. The analysis provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for security of supply policies to promote the uptake of new technologies, reduce the cost of pursuing climate change mitigation policies, and facilitate a possible transition to a hydrogen economy. 44 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargsyan, K.; Safta, C.; Berry, R.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H.

    2011-12-01

    requires a large number of training runs, as well as an output parameterization with respect to a fast-growing spectral basis set. To alleviate this issue, we adopt the Bayesian view of compressive sensing, well-known in the image recognition community. The technique efficiently finds a sparse representation of the model output with respect to a large number of input variables, effectively obtaining a reduced order surrogate model for the input-output relationship. The methodology is preceded by a sampling strategy that takes into account input parameter constraints by an initial mapping of the constrained domain to a hypercube via the Rosenblatt transformation, which preserves probabilities. Furthermore, a sparse quadrature sampling, specifically tailored for the reduced basis, is employed in the unconstrained domain to obtain accurate representations. The work is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's CSSEF (Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future) program. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  10. Energy in New England | Energy and Global Climate Change ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-10

    EPA Region 1's Energy and Climate Unit provides information, technical assistance, and training on energy efficiency, renewable energy, energy use and transmission in New England. In addition, the unit works with the New England States to regulate and inventory greenhouse gas emissions.

  11. Energy for climate in Europe. An assessment of energy policies with climate-relevance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Audun; Knudsen, Joergen K.; Jacobsen, Gerd B.

    2011-01-15

    The LinkS project aims at providing a better linkage between perspectives and projections for global climate policy development and regional energy systems, by linking relevant modelling tools. The present report provides a specific focus an energy policy measures within the EU with climate relevance. The EU has in recent years aimed at reinforcing the linkage between the climate and energy policies, both at strategic and operational levels. The EU has pledged itself to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 8 percent by 2008-12 as compared to the 1990 level, and by 24 percent by 2020 as compared to the 2005 level. The EU-27 reduced its GHG emissions with 11,3 percent in 1990-2008. The 2020-target, however, will require stronger efforts and energy is a key sector: The EU has decided that 24 percent of the energy used in 2020 must be renewable, and that the energy usage in 2020 is to be 20 percent more efficient than in 2005. A number of policy strategies, measures and legislation are formulated to fulfil these targets. In order ta highlight the potential of these measures, this report specifically addresses the drivers and limitations given the existing decision-making structures in the EU. The methodology employed is mainly qualitative, based on document analysis and a review of secondary literature. Climate-change mitigation is in principle based an supra-national decision-making, but unanimity among all EU Member States is still required in critical issues related to the energy sector. In addition, the national follow-up of the targets constitutes a particular challenge. This is here illustrated by the cases of Denmark and Norway. Energy policy is also substantially characterised by several conflicting interests between the Member States, resulting in diverging policy priorities. It is, therefore, an open question whether the EU will succeed in fulfilling its 20/20/20 percent targets by 2020, and what will be the actual role of energy within the climate

  12. Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.; Hathaway, John E.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Huang, Maoyi; Jin, Chunlian; Kintner-Meyer, Michael C.W.; Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Hongyi; Moss, Richard H.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Voisin, Nathalie; West, Tristram O.

    2015-04-01

    The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization. Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.

  13. The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) - Enabling Collective Impact on Climate and Energy Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Niepold, F., III

    2015-12-01

    Numerous climate change education efforts exist that aim to enable citizens and society to make informed decisions addressing environmental and societal issues arising from climate change. To extend the reach and impact of these efforts, it is necessary to coordinate them in order to reach a greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network, as an example of a rudimentary form of such an organization, engages in continuous communication through weekly teleconferences, an active listserv and other activities to share resources, activities, and ideas that is moving the network to develop common understandings that will likely lead to the development of effective collective impact on increasing climate and energy literacy. A Spring 2013 survey of the CLEAN Network provided insight as to how the CLEAN Network was addressing member needs and identified what other support was needed to increase its collective impact. In addition, community discussions identified the components needed for an effective overarching backbone support organization. A Fall 2015 survey of the CLEAN Network and the broader climate change education community is being conducted to examine 1) how the CLEAN Network make up and needs have evolved and how they compare to the broader community, and 2) to gather further input into the shaping of the elements of collective impact on climate and energy literacy. This presentation will describe the results from the 2015 survey and compare them to the 2013 survey and the community discussions. This will include describing the CLEAN Network's evolving professional make up, engagement of its members network activities, the importance of the network to members; how the findings compare with the broader climate

  14. Stochastic Climate Theory and Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Franzke, Christian L E; Berner, Judith; Williams, Paul D; Lucarini, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochast...

  15. Smart energy strategies. Meeting the climate change challenge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This book published by the Energy Science Center (ESC) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich presents a wide selection of reports on how the challenge of dealing with climate change can be met. The 69 reports included cover a wide range of topics ranging from traffic modelling, biofuels and electrification of power trains, through demand-side management, electricity production and distribution and life cycle assessment, to the integration of wind power and renewable energy technologies. Also, climate policy matters are dealt with as are nano-technology applications in the energy area and the integration of energy conversion and production processes and waste management.

  16. Evaluation of climate change impacts on energy demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taseska, Verica; Markovska, Natasa; Callaway, John M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages......Although previous climate change research has documented the effects of linking mitigation and adaptation in the energy sector, there is still a lack of integrated assessment, particularly at national level. This paper may contribute to fill this gap, identifying the interactions between climate...... change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal...

  17. Projections of long-term changes in solar radiation based on CMIP5 climate models and their influence on energy yields of photovoltaic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian; Müller, Björn

    2015-04-01

    Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar energy systems, the amount of solar radiation (sunlight) incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be constant over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering the past decades confirm long-term changes in this quantity. Here we examine, how the latest generation of climate models used for the 5th IPCC report projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, solar power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. For this purpose, projections up to the mid 21th century from 39 state of the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analysed globally and for selected key regions with major solar power production capacity. The large model ensemble allows to assess the degree of consistency of their projections. Models are largely consistent in the sign of the projected changes in solar radiation under cloud-free conditions as well as in surface temperatures over most of the globe, while still reasonably consistent over a considerable part of the globe in the sign of changes in cloudiness and associated changes in solar radiation. A first order estimate of the impact of solar radiation and temperature changes on energy yields of PV systems under the RPC8.5 scenario indicates statistically significant decreases in PV outputs in large parts of the world, but notable exceptions with positive trends in parts of Europe and the South-East of China. Projected changes between 2006 and 2049 under the RCP8.5 scenario overall are on the order of 1 % per decade for horizontal planes, but may be larger for tilted or tracked planes as well as on shorter (decadal) timescales. Related References: Wild, M., Folini, D., Henschel, F., and M

  18. Towards a calibration of building energy models: A case study from the Spanish housing stock in the Mediterranean climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blázquez, T.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Current energy policies focus on retrofitting to achieve Horizon 2020 aims, especially concerning the residential stock constructed before the first thermal regulations. According to this, improving energy efficiency and interior comfort conditions in buildings must be supported by the knowledge of its real energy performance. Due to uncertainty and the lack of information on the current energy performance of housing and its real operational conditions, discrepancies between the results obtained and the measured data arise. Housing monitoring under real occupational conditions become essential for a better understanding of environmental behavior of residential building stock. Our aim is to show the calibration process, based on monitoring data obtained from a group of dwellings of national heritage interest built in the 1950s in Seville (a Mediterranean climate city. Calibration allows simulation results to approximate to current environmental conditions, aiming to predict and optimize the potential for subsequent environmental and energy implementation.Las actuales políticas energéticas europeas proponen la rehabilitación para poder alcanzar los objetivos del Horizonte 2020, especialmente del parque residencial construido antes de las primeras normativas térmicas, debiendo cimentarse la mejora en eficiencia energética y confort en el conocimiento de su comportamiento energético real. Aparecen divergencias entre resultados reales y de simulación debido a las incertidumbres y falta de información sobre el estado actual y las condiciones reales de uso y operacionales. La monitorización bajo condiciones de ocupación real resulta imprescindible para conocer el comportamiento energético y ambiental del parque residencial. Nuestro objetivo es mostrar el proceso de calibración de modelos energéticos, a partir de la monitorización, de unas viviendas de interés patrimonial construidas en los años cincuenta en Sevilla, ciudad de clima

  19. The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheridan Few

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model, to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%, and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.

  20. Exploitation of Parallelism in Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baer, F.; Tribbia, J.J.; Williamson, D.L.

    1999-03-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE), through its CHAMMP initiative, hopes to develop the capability to make meaningful regional climate forecasts on time scales exceeding a decade, such capability to be based on numerical prediction type models. We propose research to contribute to each of the specific items enumerated in the CHAMMP announcement (Notice 91-3); i.e., to consider theoretical limits to prediction of climate and climate change on appropriate time scales, to develop new mathematical techniques to utilize massively parallel processors (MPP), to actually utilize MPPs as a research tool, and to develop improved representations of some processes essential to climate prediction. In particular, our goals are to: (1) Reconfigure the prediction equations such that the time iteration process can be compressed by use of MMP architecture, and to develop appropriate algorithms. (2) Develop local subgrid scale models which can provide time and space dependent parameterization for a state- of-the-art climate model to minimize the scale resolution necessary for a climate model, and to utilize MPP capability to simultaneously integrate those subgrid models and their statistics. (3) Capitalize on the MPP architecture to study the inherent ensemble nature of the climate problem. By careful choice of initial states, many realizations of the climate system can be determined concurrently and more realistic assessments of the climate prediction can be made in a realistic time frame. To explore these initiatives, we will exploit all available computing technology, and in particular MPP machines. We anticipate that significant improvements in modeling of climate on the decadal and longer time scales for regional space scales will result from our efforts.

  1. Wind-Climate Estimation Based on Mesoscale and Microscale Modeling: Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling for Wind Energy Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Frank, Helmut; Hahmann, Andrea N.;

    2014-01-01

    turbine site. The method is divided into two parts: 1) preprocessing, in which the configurations for the mesoscale model simulations are determined, and 2) postprocessing, in which the data from the mesoscale simulations are prepared for wind energy application. Results from idealized mesoscale modeling...... experiments for a challenging wind farm site in northern Spain are presented to support the preprocessing method. Comparisons of modeling results with measurements from the same wind farm site are presented to support the postprocessing method. The crucial element in postprocessing is the bridging...... of mesoscale modeling data to microscale modeling input data, via a so-called generalization method. With this method, very high-resolution wind resource mapping can be achieved....

  2. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, Olivier [GERAD and Department of Management Sciences, HEC Montreal, Montreal (Qc) (Canada); Edwards, Neil R. [Earth and Environmental Sciences, CEPSAR, Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stocker, Thomas F. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. (author)

  3. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  4. Climate and energy use in glazed spaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, M.

    1996-11-01

    One objective of the thesis has been to elucidate the relationship between building design and the climate, thermal comfort and energy requirements in different types of glazed spaces. Another object has been to study the effect of the glazed spaces on energy requirements in adjacent buildings. It has also been the object to develop a simple calculation method for the assessment of temperatures and energy requirements in glazed spaces. The research work has mainly comprised case studies of existing buildings with glazed spaces and energy balance calculations using both the developed steady-state method and a dynamic building energy simulation program. Parameters such as the geometry of the building, type of glazing, orientation, thermal inertia, airtightness, ventilation system and sunshades have been studied. These parameters are of different importance for each specific type of glazed space. In addition, the significance of each of these parameters varies for different types of glazed spaces. The developed calculation method estimates the minimum and mean temperature in glazed spaces and the energy requirements for heating and cooling. The effect of the glazed space on the energy requirement of the surrounding buildings can also be estimated. It is intended that the method should be applied during the preliminary design stage so that the effect which the design of the building will have on climate and energy requirement may be determined. The method may provide an insight into how glazed spaces behave with regard to climate and energy. 99 refs

  5. Energy security and climate policy. Assessing interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-03-28

    World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising. This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly. The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The 'indicators' are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.

  6. Climate change, energy, sustainability and pavements

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalakrishnan, Kasthurirangan; Harvey, John

    2014-01-01

    Climate change, energy production and consumption, and the need to improve the sustainability of all aspects of human activity are key inter-related issues for which solutions must be found and implemented quickly and efficiently.  To be successfully implemented, solutions must recognize the rapidly changing socio-techno-political environment and multi-dimensional constraints presented by today's interconnected world.  As part of this global effort, considerations of climate change impacts, energy demands, and incorporation of sustainability concepts have increasing importance in the design,

  7. Improved predictive ability of climate-human-behaviour interactions with modifications to the COMFA outdoor energy budget model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanos, J. K.; Warland, J. S.; Gillespie, T. J.; Kenny, N. A.

    2012-11-01

    The purpose of this paper is to implement current and novel research techniques in human energy budget estimations to give more accurate and efficient application of models by a variety of users. Using the COMFA model, the conditioning level of an individual is incorporated into overall energy budget predictions, giving more realistic estimations of the metabolism experienced at various fitness levels. Through the use of VO2 reserve estimates, errors are found when an elite athlete is modelled as an unconditioned or a conditioned individual, giving budgets underpredicted significantly by -173 and -123 W m-2, respectively. Such underprediction can result in critical errors regarding heat stress, particularly in highly motivated individuals; thus this revision is critical for athletic individuals. A further improvement in the COMFA model involves improved adaptation of clothing insulation ( I cl), as well clothing non-uniformity, with changing air temperature ( T a) and metabolic activity ( M act). Equivalent T a values (for I cl estimation) are calculated in order to lower the I cl value with increasing M act at equal T a. Furthermore, threshold T a values are calculated to predict the point at which an individual will change from a uniform I cl to a segmented I cl (full ensemble to shorts and a T-shirt). Lastly, improved relative velocity ( v r) estimates were found with a refined equation accounting for the degree angle of wind to body movement. Differences between the original and improved v r equations increased with higher wind and activity speeds, and as the wind to body angle moved away from 90°. Under moderate microclimate conditions, and wind from behind a person, the convective heat loss and skin temperature estimates were 47 W m-2 and 1.7°C higher when using the improved v r equation. These model revisions improve the applicability and usability of the COMFA energy budget model for subjects performing physical activity in outdoor environments

  8. Resolution on the program energy-climate; Resolution sur le paquet energie-climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This document presents the resolutions proposed in the resolution proposition n. 1261 and concerning the european Commission program on the energy policies and the climate change. Twelve resolution are presented on the energy sources development, the energy efficiency, the energy economy and the carbon taxes. (A.L.B.)

  9. Arctic melt ponds and energy balance in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudakov, Ivan

    2017-02-01

    Elements of Earth's cryosphere, such as the summer Arctic sea ice pack, are melting at precipitous rates that have far outpaced the projections of large scale climate models. Understanding key processes, such as the evolution of melt ponds that form atop Arctic sea ice and control its optical properties, is crucial to improving climate projections. These types of critical phenomena in the cryosphere are of increasing interest as the climate system warms, and are crucial for predicting its stability. In this paper, we consider how geometrical properties of melt ponds can influence ice-albedo feedback and how it can influence the equilibria in the energy balance of the planet.

  10. Recent changes in energy and freshwater budgets for the Godthåbsfjord catchment simulated in a 5 km regional climate model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langen, P. L.; Mottram, R.; Christensen, J. H.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater input to the Godthåbsfjord (Southwest Greenland) is analyzed with special attention on the melt and runoff from the ice sheet. We use the high resolution (5.5 km) HIRHAM5 regional climate model covering all of Greenland, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis at the lateral boundaries over......-meteorological observations both on and off the ice sheet and is found to represent weather variability well. During this period, the ice sheet up to elevations of 2000 m experienced increasing energy input from the surface turbulent heat flux and the ice sheet above 1000 m experienced increasing energy input due...... to shortwave radiation. Large-scale trends show an increase in atmospheric pressure over North Greenland, southerly wind anomalies and declining cloudiness. These factors contributed to increased summer melt, which outweighed changes in annual accumulation, resulting in a decline in surface mass balance (SMB...

  11. The future of energy and climate

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2009-01-01

    The talk will review some of the basic facts about the history and present status of the use of energy and its climatic consequences. It is clear that the world will have to change its way of energy production, the sooner the better. Because of the difficulty of storing electric energy, by far the best energy source for the future is thermal solar from the deserts, with overnight thermal storage. I will give some description of the present status of the technologies involved and end up with a pilot project for Europe and North Africa.

  12. A Model for Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasqualini, D.; Keating, G. N.

    2009-12-01

    Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy. Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water usage can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. In response to the greenhouse gas emission reductions required by California’s Assembly Bill 32 (2006), Sonoma County has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, including water, energy, and transportation. To assist Sonoma County develop a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal we have developed an integrated assessment model, CLEAR (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency) model. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, the CLEAR model simulates the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. This model enables assessment of these and other components with specific analysis of their coupling and feedbacks because, due to the complex nature of the problem, the interrelated sectors cannot be studied independently. The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities. The model user interfaces helps stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation.

  13. An Analog Earth Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varekamp, J. C.

    2010-12-01

    The earth climate is broadly governed by the radiative power of the sun as well as the heat retention and convective cooling of the atmosphere. I have constructed an analog earth model for an undergraduate climate class that simulates mean climate using these three parameters. The ‘earth’ is a hollow, black, bronze sphere (4 cm diameter) mounted on a thin insulated rod, and illuminated by two opposite optic fibers, with light focused on the sphere by a set of lenses. The sphere is encased in a large double-walled aluminum cylinder (34 cm diameter by 26 cm high) with separate water cooling jackets at the top, bottom, and sides. The cylinder can be filled with a gas of choice at a variety of pressures or can be run in vacuum. The exterior is cladded with insulation, and the temperature of the sphere, atmosphere and walls is monitored with thermocouples. The temperature and waterflow of the three cooling jackets can be monitored to establish the energy output of the whole system; the energy input is the energy yield of the two optic fibers. A small IR transmissive lens at the top provides the opportunity to hook up the fiber of a hyper spectrometer to monitor the emission spectrum of the black ‘earth’ sphere. A pressure gauge and gas inlet-outlet system for flushing of the cell completes it. The heat yield of the cooling water at the top is the sum of the radiative and convective components, whereas the bottom jacket only carries off the radiative heat of the sphere. Undergraduate E&ES students at Wesleyan University have run experiments with dry air, pure CO2, N2 and Ar at 1 atmosphere, and a low vacuum run was accomplished to calibrate the energy input. For each experiment, the lights are flipped on, the temperature acquisition routine is activated, and the sphere starts to warm up until an equilibrium temperature has been reached. The lights are then flipped off and the cooling sequence towards ambient is registered. The energy input is constant for a given

  14. Development of a wind energy climate service based on seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torralba, Veronica; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Cortesi, Nicola; Christel, Isadora; González-Reviriego, Nube; Turco, Marco; Soret, Albert

    2016-04-01

    Climate predictions tailored to the wind energy sector represent an innovation to better understand the future variability of wind energy resources. At seasonal time scales current energy practices employ a simple approach based on a retrospective climatology. Instead, probabilistic climate forecasting can better address specific decisions that affect energy demand and supply, as well as decisions relative to the planning of maintenance work. Here we illustrate the advantages that seasonal climate predictions might offer to a wide range of users and discuss the best way to provide them with this information. We use the predictions of 10-meter wind speed from the ECMWF seasonal forecast System 4 (S4). S4, as every operational seasonal forecast system, is affected by a range of biases. Hence, to produce usable climate information from the predictions, different bias-adjustment techniques and downscaling methods should be applied, their choice depending on the user requirements. An ensemble of post-processing methods is described, and their relative merit evaluated as a function of their impact of the characteristics of the forecast error and the usability of the resulting forecasts. Both reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA) and in-situ observations are used as observational references. As an illustration of the downstream impact of the forecasts as a source of climate information, the post-processed seasonal predictions of wind speed will be used as input in a transfer model that translates climate information into generated power at different spatial scales.

  15. Climate Control Using Nuclear Energy

    CERN Document Server

    Modgil, Moninder Singh

    2008-01-01

    We examine implications of anthropogenic low pressure regions, - created by injecting heat from nuclear reactors, into atmosphere. We suggest the possibility that such artificially generated low pressure regions, near hurricanes could disrupt their growth, path, and intensity. This method can also create controlled tropical stroms, which lead to substantial rainfall in arid areas, such as - (1)Sahara desert, (2) Australian interior desert, and (3) Indian Thar desert. A simple vortex suction model is developed to study, effect on atmospheric dynamics, by such a nuclear heat injection system.

  16. Danish and global climate and energy challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, John M. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Davidson, O. (Univ. of Sierra Leone, IPCC (Sierra Leone))

    2008-12-15

    The global energy scene is currently dominated by two overriding concerns that are strongly affecting decisions about energy development priorities: 1) Climate change 2) Energy security. This is especially true for industrialized countries and the more rapidly developing economies while many developing countries are facing really basic energy development constraints giving quite a different meaning to the concept of energy security. There is broad global recognition of the need to support these countries in their efforts to increase access to cleaner and more efficient forms of energy for the more than 1,6 billion people currently having no access to electricity and largely relying on traditional forms of biomass for basic energy services, but progress is slow in many regions. The three areas, security, climate and poverty are in several ways interlinked, and ideally national energy policies and development programmes should address all the above issues - or at least not have negative effects in any area. In practice, however, many national policy landscapes have been dominated by just one of these factors. In the political debate the access issue is often seen as a potential climate problem, but most studies indicate that access to basic energy services for the poorest one billion people, even based on fossil resources, will make very marginal contributions to global GHG emissions. The more relevant and pressing political concern is how to limit global emissions and allow the emerging economies to continue their economic growth, but as discussed in this report the technological options will be available and solutions depend on political will and agreements on sharing the technologies and financial resources. (au)

  17. Modeling of Past Climates: Some Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutzbach, J. E.

    2008-12-01

    Important new ideas related to modeling of past climates go hand in hand with new observations, with advances in our understanding and ability to represent physical and biogeochemical processes, and with advances in computer capacity and speed. Important first steps in quantitative climate modeling using energy balance models were underway in the early 20th century. Dynamical climate models began to be used to study past climates in the 1970s and 1980s, with a focus first on the atmosphere, and then on coupled models of atmosphere and upper ocean. In the past decades, coupled dynamical models include atmosphere, global ocean, vegetation, cryosphere and carbon cycle components. This astonishingly rapid development in modeling potential has been greatly facilitated by the rapid increase in computational power. Equally important is the rapid development of more diverse, accurate and worldwide observations of present and past environments from land, lakes, oceans and ice. The topics of early, more recent, and current research on modeling of past climates come from a diverse range of ideas about the mechanisms that might force fundamental changes in climate - for example: changes in greenhouse gases, changes in insolation caused by orbital changes, changes in land-sea distribution, changes in orography, and changes in ocean gateways. Past and current research on these topics, using climate models, illustrates the process and the progress. Certain fundamental principles of modeling and analysis have been important in the past, are important now, and most likely will continue to be important. These principles will be enumerated. Looking toward the future, new observations, improved models and even faster computers are to be expected. But there will also be new challenges: intermodel comparisons and analysis and correction of model bias, understanding feedback processes, understanding non-linear responses, understanding the response to combinations of forcing, and studying

  18. A Climate System Model, Numerical Simulation and Climate Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Qingcun; WANG Huijun; LIN Zhaohui; ZHOU Guangqing; YU Yongqiang

    2007-01-01

    @@ The implementation of the project has lasted for more than 20 years. As a result, the following key innovative achievements have been obtained, ranging from the basic theory of climate dynamics, numerical model development and its related computational theory to the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models:

  19. A Pedagogical "Toy" Climate Model

    CERN Document Server

    Katz, J I

    2010-01-01

    A "toy" model, simple and elementary enough for an undergraduate class, of the temperature dependence of the greenhouse (mid-IR) absorption by atmospheric water vapor implies a bistable climate system. The stable states are glaciation and warm interglacials, while intermediate states are unstable. This is in qualitative accord with the paleoclimatic data. The present climate may be unstable, with or without anthropogenic interventions such as CO$_2$ emission, unless there is additional stabilizing feedback such as "geoengineering".

  20. Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Ken'ichi

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks.

  1. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technolgical, and socioeconomic futures in a regional intergrated-assessment model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Kyle, G. Page; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-05-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of the building stock, commercial equipment and household appliances can have a major impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Subnational regions such as U.S. states wish to increase their energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions or adapt to climate change. Evaluating subnational policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change may undercut such policies. Assessing these uncertainties can be a significant modeling and computation burden. As part of this uncertainty assessment, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy using fractional factorial methods can be applied to reveal the important drivers for detailed uncertainty analysis.

  2. Energy and climate protection management, the key to higher energy efficiency in communities; Energie- und Klimaschutzmanagement. Der Schluessel zu mehr Energieeffizienz in Kommunen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-15

    The brochure explains the dena energy and climate protection management concepts and presents tools for long-term reduction of energy consumption in communities. It presents valuable information for better organization of internal processes in community administrations and for the management of energy efficiency measures. The dena energy and climate protection management concept is developed in cooperation with model communities of different sizes since 2010. All interested communities can use this brochure as a guide for initiating effective climate protection measures.

  3. Model confirmation in climate economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K J

    2016-08-01

    Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century.

  4. Climate studies with a multi-layer energy balance model. I - Model description and sensitivity to the solar constant. II - The role of feedback mechanisms in the CO2 problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, L.; Chou, M.-D.; Arking, A.

    1982-01-01

    A nine-layer zonally averaged, steady-state model, based upon thermal energy balance, is developed for use in climate sensitivity studies and includes an accurate treatment of radiative transfer, parameterized meridional and vertical energy transport, and thermodynamic interaction between the surface and the atmosphere. A high degree of nonlinearity is exhibited by the model in a study of sensitivity to changes in the solar constant. The change in the hemispheric mean surface temperature is +3.1 C in response to a 2% increase in the solar constant and -4.3 C in response to a 2% decrease in the solar constant. The sensitivity varies with latitude, and the response of atmospheric temperature varies with height. In addition, the model is used to study the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 content. It is found that the tropospheric temperature lapse rate decreases at low latitudes but increases at high latitudes in response to a doubled CO2 content. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere, the change is +2.3 C in the surface temperature and +0.47 C in the earth's brightness temperature. The effects of some feedback mechanisms on the climate sensitivity to a doubled CO2 content show that the sensitivity of surface temperature approximately doubles at all latitudes due to the change in water vapor content.

  5. Climate change impact on wave energy in the Persian Gulf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamranzad, Bahareh; Etemad-Shahidi, Amir; Chegini, Vahid; Yeganeh-Bakhtiary, Abbas

    2015-06-01

    Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth's temperature, and consequently have changed the patterns of natural phenomena such as wind speed, wave height, etc. Renewable energy resources are ideal alternatives to reduce the negative effects of increasing greenhouse gases emission and climate change. However, these energy sources are also sensitive to changing climate. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave energy in the Persian Gulf is investigated. For this purpose, future wind data obtained from CGCM3.1 model were downscaled using a hybrid approach and modification factors were computed based on local wind data (ECMWF) and applied to control and future CGCM3.1 wind data. Downscaled wind data was used to generate the wave characteristics in the future based on A2, B1, and A1B scenarios, while ECMWF wind field was used to generate the wave characteristics in the control period. The results of these two 30-yearly wave modelings using SWAN model showed that the average wave power changes slightly in the future. Assessment of wave power spatial distribution showed that the reduction of the average wave power is more in the middle parts of the Persian Gulf. Investigation of wave power distribution in two coastal stations (Boushehr and Assalouyeh ports) indicated that the annual wave energy will decrease in both stations while the wave power distribution for different intervals of significant wave height and peak period will also change in Assalouyeh according to all scenarios.

  6. Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that the economic growth seen in recent decades will continue has dominated the discussion of future greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Given that long-term economic growth is uncertain, the impacts of a wide range of growth trajectories should be considered. In particular, slower economic growth would imply that future generations will be relatively less able to invest in emissions controls or adapt to the detrimental impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the possibility of economic slowdown therefore heightens the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions now by moving to renewable energy sources, even if this incurs short-term economic cost. I quantify this counterintuitive impact of economic growth assumptions on present-day policy decisions in a simple global economy-climate model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE. In DICE, slow future growth increases the economically optimal present-day carbon tax rate and the utility of taxing carbon emissions, although the magnitude of the increase is sensitive to model parameters, including the rate of social time preference and the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. Future scenario development should specifically include low-growth scenarios, and the possibility of low-growth economic trajectories should be taken into account in climate policy analyses.

  7. Hierarchical Climate Modeling for Cosmoclimatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohfuchi, Wataru

    2010-05-01

    It has been reported that there are correlations among solar activity, amount of galactic cosmic ray, amount of low clouds and surface air temperature (Svensmark and Friis-Chistensen, 1997). These correlations seem to exist for current climate change, Little Ice Age, and geological time scale climate changes. Some hypothetic mechanisms have been argued for the correlations but it still needs quantitative studies to understand the mechanism. In order to decrease uncertainties, only first principles or laws very close to first principles should be used. Our group at Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology has started modeling effort to tackle this problem. We are constructing models from galactic cosmic ray inducing ionization, to aerosol formation, to cloud formation, to global climate. In this talk, we introduce our modeling activities. For aerosol formation, we use molecular dynamics. For cloud formation, we use a new cloud microphysics model called "super droplet method". We also try to couple a nonhydrostatic atmospheric regional cloud resolving model and a hydrostatic atmospheric general circulation model.

  8. Climate system model, numerical simulation and climate predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ Thanks to its work of past more than 20 years,a research team led by Prof.ZENG Qingcun and Prof.WANG Huijun from the CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) has scored innovative achievements in their studies of basic theory of climate dynamics,numerical model development,its related computational theory,and the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models.Their work received a second prize of the National Award for Natural Sciences in 2005.

  9. Complex Evaluation Model of Corporate Energy Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ágnes Kádár Horváth

    2014-01-01

    With the ever increasing energy problems at the doorstep alongside with political, economic, social and environmental challenges, conscious energy management has become of increasing importance in corporate resource management. Rising energy costs, stricter environmental and climate regulations as well as considerable changes in the energy market require companies to rationalise their energy consumption and cut energy costs. This study presents a complex evaluation model of corporate energy m...

  10. Modelling energy systems for developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urban, F.; Benders, R.M.J.; Moll, H.C.

    2007-01-01

    Developing countries' energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of ind

  11. Relationships between energy consumption and climate change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIANHuaisui; YUANShunquan; SUNJiulin; LIZehui

    2004-01-01

    Energy consumption has an inevitable connection with economic level and climate. Based on selected data covering annual total energy consumption and its composition and that of all kinds of energy in 1953-1999, the annual residential energy consumption and the coal and electricity consumption in 1980-1999 in China, the acreage of crops under cultivation suffered from drought and flood annually and gross domestic product (GDP) in 1953-1999 in the whole country, and mean daily temperature data from 29 provincial meteorological stations in the whole country from 1970 to 1999, this paper divides energy consumption into socio-economic energy consumption and climatic energy consumption in the way of multinomial. Itchanges between the climate energy consumption andalso goes further into the relations and their changes between the climate energy consumptionenergy consumption and the economic level inand climate factor and between the socio-economic energy between the climate energy level in China with the method of statistical analysis. At present, there are obvious transitions in the changing relationships of the energy consumption to economy and climate, which comprises the transition of economic system from resource-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry and the transition of climatic driving factors of the energy consumption from driven by the disasters of drought and flood to driven by temperature.

  12. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed...... on reviewing the current knowledge on risks and vulnerabilities of energy systems and on potential adaptation options. The paper finds that short and longer term action on climate risk management of energy systems strongly depends on: Strengthening the capacity to model and project climate change and its...

  13. Transitions in climate and energy discourse between Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy

    CERN Document Server

    Cody, Emily M; Bagrow, James P; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

    2015-01-01

    Although climate change and energy are intricately linked, their explicit connection is not always prominent in public discourse and the media. Disruptive extreme weather events, including hurricanes, focus public attention in new and different ways, offering a unique window of opportunity to analyze how a focusing event influences public opinion. Simultaneously shaping and reflecting public discourse, media coverage of extreme weather events reflects public opinion of climate issues. Here we analyze climate and energy media coverage of Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012) using topic models, mathematical techniques used to discover abstract topics within a set of documents. Our results demonstrate that post-Katrina media coverage does not contain a climate change topic, and the energy topic is limited to discussion of energy prices, markets, and the economy with almost no explicit linkages made between energy and climate change. In contrast, post-Sandy media coverage does contain a prominent climate ch...

  14. Energy- and humidity-budget of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model GESIMA by nesting into the regional climate model REMO; Energie- und Feuchtehaushalt im nichthydrostatischen Mesoskalamodell GESIMA bei Nestung in das Regionalklimamodell REMO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horneffer, K. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserphysik]|[Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Fachbereich 15 - Geowissenschaften

    1997-12-31

    The `Geesthacht Simulationsmodel of the Atmosphere` (GESIMA) was nested into the `Regional Climate Model` (REMO). Exemplary studies prove that the presented nesting scheme is suitable to resolve subscale phenomena in the regional climate model. Some results of simulations above the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea were presented. The mesoscale model GESIMA could now be used to analyze real synoptic weather situations. (orig.) [Deutsch] Das Geesthachter Simulationsmodell der Atmosphaere (GESIMA) wird in das Regionalklimamodell (REMO) genestet. Beispielhafte Untersuchungen zeigen, dass mit der genesteten Modellversion subskalige Effekte, die durch das grobe Raster des Regionalklimamodells fallen, aufgeloest werden. Dies wird anhand von Simulationen ueberprueft. Hauptuntersuchungsgegenstand ist die Insel Gotland in der Ostsee. Duch die Nestung kann das Mesoskalamodell fuer tatsaechliche synoptische Situationen eingesetzt werden. (orig.)

  15. Hurricane Footprints in Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco J. Tapiador

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the identification of hurricanes in low-resolution global climate models (GCM. As hurricanes are not fully resolvable at the coarse resolution of the GCMs (typically 2.5 × 2.5 deg, indirect methods such as analyzing the environmental conditions favoring hurricane formation have to be sought. Nonetheless, the dynamical cores of the models have limitations in simulating hurricane formation, which is a far from fully understood process. Here, it is shown that variations in the specific entropy rather than in dynamical variables can be used as a proxy of the hurricane intensity as estimated by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE. The main application of this research is to ascertain the changes in the hurricane frequency and intensity in future climates.

  16. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  17. Exploring elementary students’ understanding of energy and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin BOYLAN

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available As environmental changes become a significant societal issue, elementary science curriculaneed to develop students’ understanding about the key concepts of energy and climate change.For teachers, developing quality learning experiences involves establishing what theirstudents’ prior understanding about energy and climate change are. A survey was developed toexplore what elementary students know and understand about renewable and non-renewablesources of energy and their relationship to climate change issues. The findings from thissurvey are reported in this paper.

  18. The new energy crisis : Climate, Economics and Geopolitics

    OpenAIRE

    Chevalier, Jean-Marie

    2009-01-01

    Global warming reveals that the current evolution of the world consumption is on an unsustainable path. Humankind's insatiable appetite for energy has sparked a new crisis. In a world where climate change has become a proven reality, there lies a deep uncertainty about the physical, economic and social impacts of this phenomenon. The New Energy Crisis examines the impact of climate change issues into energy economics and geopolitics. Climate is a public resource that needs to be universally m...

  19. Political motives in climate and energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruvoll, Annegrete; Dalen, Hanne Marit; Larsen, Bodil M.

    2012-07-01

    Standard economic theory provides clear guidance on the design of cost-efficient policy in the presence of imperfect markets and externalities. However, observed policies reveal extensive discrepancies between principles and practise. Based on interviews with core politicians from the Norwegian parliament, we investigate causes for the lack of cost efficiency in climate and energy policy. We find that politicians agree with the notion of cost efficiency in principle, but rather than ascribing efficient instruments directed at specific policy goals, they include concerns for industrial and regional development, income distribution and employment in the environmental policy design. Lacking insight in the functioning of economic instruments and perceptions of a non-binding budget constraint also violate the requirements for efficient policy decisions. The findings point to the role of economists and social scientists to communicate the functioning of complex instruments. Improved compensation procedures could help reduce the politicians' incentives to undermine efficiency in order to avoid unwanted distributional effects.(Author)

  20. Energy for climate in Europe. An assessment of energy policies with climate-relevance. The LinkS Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Audun; Knudsen, Joergen K.; Jacobsen, Gerd B.

    2011-07-01

    The LinkS project aims at providing a better linkage between perspectives and projections for global climate policy development and regional energy systems, by linking relevant modelling tools. The present report provides a specific focus on energy policy measures within the EY with climate relevance. The EU has in recent years aimed at reinforcing the linkage between the climate and energy policies, both at strategic and operational levels. The EU has pledged itself to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 8 percent by 2008-12 as compared to the 1990 level, and by 20 percent by 2020 as compared to the as compared to the 2005 level. The EU-27 reduced it GHG emissions with 11,3 percent in 1990-2008. The 2020-target, however, will require stronger efforts and energy is a key sector: The EU has decided that 20 percent of the energy must be renewable, and that the energy usage in 2020 is to be 20 per sent more efficient than in 2005. A number of policy strategies, measures and legislation are formulated to fulfil these targets. In order to highlight the potential of these measures, this report specifically addresses the drivers and limitations given the existing decision-making structures in the EU. The methodology employed is mainly qualitative, based on document analysis and a review of secondary literature. Climate-change mitigation is in principle based on supra-national decision-making, but unanimity among all Eu Member States is still required in critical issues related to the energy sector. In addition, the national follow-up of the targets constitutes a particular challenge. This is here illustrated by the cases of Denmark and Norway. Energy policy is also substantially characterised by several conflicting interests between the Member States, resulting in diverging policy priorities. It is, therefore, an open question whether the EU will succeed in fulfilling its 20/20/20 percent targets by 2020, and will be the actual role of energy within the climate

  1. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate...... risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies - a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8......-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters...

  2. Soil moisture and root water uptake in climate models. Research Programme Climate Changes Spatial Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dam, van J.C.; Metselaar, K.; Wipfler, E.L.; Feddes, R.A.; Meijgaard, van E.; Hurk, van den B.

    2011-01-01

    More accurate simulation of the energy and water balance near the Earth surface is important to improve the performance of regional climate models. We used a detailed ecohydrological model to rank the importance of vegetation and soil factors with respect to evapotranspiration modeling. The results

  3. Renewable energy technologies and climate change policies in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venkata, R.P. [Winrock International, New Delhi (India); Sinha, C.S. [Tata Energy and Resources Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Shukla, P.R. [Indian Inst. of Management, Ahmedabad (India)

    2001-07-01

    suggests that in the absence of stringent climate change policies, India is likely to go along the conventional fossil fuel path. The same can be true of many other developing countries. The policies in specific countries, especially developing nations with no binding carbon mitigation commitments, will be crucial for generating initial technology push, before the market will be ready to provide the demand pull in the long run. This paper provides a review of the renewable energy experience in India in terms of positive lessons and identified barriers, It looks at various policy options for India and develops, using macro-modelling tools, scenarios of the likely penetration of RETs under different climate change mitigation policy regimes. (author)

  4. Renewable energy technologies and climate change policies in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venkata Ramana P [Winrock International, New Delhi (India); Chandra Shekhar Sinha [Tata Energy and Resources Institute, Washington, DC (United States)

    2001-07-01

    for India suggests that in the absence of stringent climate change policies, India is likely to go along the conventional fossil fuel path. The same can be true of many other developing countries. The policies in specific countries, especially developing nations with no binding carbon mitigation commitments, will be crucial for generating initial technology 'push', before the market will be ready to provide the demand 'pull' in the long run. This paper provides a review of the renewable energy experience in India in terms of positive lessons and identified barriers. It looks at various policy options for India and develops, using macro-modelling tools, scenarios of the likely penetration of RETs under different climate change mitigation policy regimes. (author)

  5. Plugging the Energy Efficiency Gap with Climate Finance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The role of International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and the Green Climate Fund to realise the potential of energy efficiency in developing countries. This report examines the current role of climate finance in funding EE projects and the potential to channel funds to relevant EE projects in developing countries under the new Green Climate Fund (GCF). The objectives of the report are to examine: 1) the share of climate finance currently being channelled to energy efficiency measures, and 2) how the design of climate finance can better facilitate energy efficiency projects. Improving energy efficiency (EE) can deliver a range of benefits such as improved air quality, enhanced economic competitiveness and, at the national scale, a higher degree of energy security. Significant improvements in energy efficiency in developing countries could provide greater opportunity for economic growth while also providing broader access to energy and related services even from limited energy resources. However, several barriers limit the scaling-up of funding of EE projects in developing countries (some are common also to developed countries). The report focuses primarily on public climate finance flows from 'north' to 'south', probing the current use of funds from multi-lateral development banks (MDBs), bi-lateral financial institutions (BFIs) and carbon markets for energy efficiency projects and the design of the future climate financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund to encourage energy efficiency improvements in developing countries.

  6. Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining different energy sources together, their intermittent feature is smoothed, resulting to lower time variability of the produced power and to lower storage capacity required for balancing. In this study, we consider solar, wind and hydro energy sources in a 100% renewable Europe using a set of 12 regions following two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine wind and solar irradiance data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Vautard et al., 2014), temperature data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) and runoff from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC, 1999) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 30 years. The use of this set of 12 regions across Europe allows integrating knowledge about time and space variability for each different energy sources. We then assess the optimal share of each energy sources, aiming to decrease the time variability of the regional energy balance at different time scales as well as the energy storage required for balancing within each region. We also evaluate how energy transport among regions contributes for smoothing out both the energy balance and the storage requirement. The strengths of this study are i) to handle with run-of-the-river hydro power in addition to wind and solar energy sources and ii) to carry out this analysis

  7. Climate crisis: energy solutions for BC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foley, D. [ed.

    2000-07-01

    This report is a collection of essays which, collectively, detail the current situation of energy and climate policy in British Columbia, taking account of the full consequences of addiction to fossil fuels and the automobile. The report examines the forces at work responsible for the current situation, namely population growth, urban sprawl, low density communities in the Lower Fraser Valley, southern Vancouver Island and other parts of the province. The growing pressure on the development of agricultural land, congestion on highways and in cities, the increase in air pollution, land alienation, longer commutes to and from work, increased demand for electricity and natural gas, construction of new power plants, pipelines and gas processing facilities are just further examples of the same trend, culminating in dramatic growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The report proposes a range of conservation and renewable options in the areas of urban land use and transportation, commercial and industrial energy reduction and oil and gas production, and provides some ideas of how these recommendations could be realized by businesses, institutions and individuals. It insists on stressing that while the challenges are formidable, they could be achieved through a combination of regulation, public investment, market mechanisms and cultural change. 163 end-notes, tabs.

  8. Climate Sensitivity and Solar Cycle Response in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, M.; Lin, L.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

    2011-12-01

    Climate sensitivity, broadly defined, is a measure of the response of the climate system to the changes of external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and solar radiation, including climate feedback processes. General circulation models provide a means to quantitatively incorporate various feedback processes, such as water-vapor, cloud and albedo feedbacks. Less attention is devoted so far to the role of the oceans in significantly affecting these processes and hence the modelled transient climate sensitivity. Here we show that the oceanic mixing plays an important role in modifying the multi-decadal to centennial oscillations of the sea surface temperature, which in turn affect the derived climate sensitivity at various phases of the oscillations. The eleven-year solar cycle forcing is used to calibrate the response of the climate system. The GISS-EH coupled atmosphere-ocean model was run twice in coupled mode for more than 2000 model years, each with a different value for the ocean eddy mixing parameter. In both runs, there is a prominent low-frequency oscillation with a period of 300-500 years, and depending on the phase of such an oscillation, the derived climate gain factor varies by a factor of 2. The run with the value of the eddy ocean mixing parameter that is half that used in IPCC AR4 study has the more realistic low-frequency variability in SST and in the derived response to the known solar-cycle forcing.

  9. State-of-the-Art Climate Predictions for Energy Climate Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Davis, Melanie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube

    2015-04-01

    Climate predictions tailored to the energy sector represent the cutting edge in climate sciences to forecast wind power generation. At seasonal time scales, current energy practices use a deterministic approach based on retrospective climatology, but climate predictions have recently been shown to provide additional value. For this reason, probabilistic climate predictions of near surface winds can allow end users to take calculated, precautionary action with a potential cost savings to their operations. As every variable predicted in a coupled model forecast system, the prediction of wind speed is affected by biases. To overcome this, two different techniques for the post-processing of ensemble forecasts are considered: a simple bias correction and a calibration method. The former is based on the assumption that the reference and predicted distributions are well approximated by a normal distribution. The latter is a calibration technique which inflates the model variance, and the inflation of the ensemble is required in order to obtain a reliable outcome. Both methods use the "one-year out" cross-validated mode, and they provide corrected forecasts with improved statistical properties. The impact of these bias corrections on the quality of the ECMWF S4 predictions of near surface wind speed during winter is explored. To offer a comprehensive picture of the post-processing effect on the forecast quality of the system, it is necessary to use several scoring measures: rank histograms, reliability diagrams and skill maps. These tools are essential to assess different aspects of the forecasts, and to observe changes in their properties when the two methods are applied. This study reveals that the different techniques to correct the predictions produce a statistically consistent ensemble. However, the operations performed on the forecasts decrease their skill which correspond to an increase in the uncertainty. Therefore, even though the bias correction is fundamental

  10. Energy and climate: the essential world cooperation; Energie et climat: l'indispensable cooperation mondiale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesourne, J.

    2008-07-01

    Considering the double challenge of energy supply for economic development and of greenhouse gas emission management to struggle against climate change, the author identifies what can be done at different levels: between governments and households (in terms of energy costs, public transport development, information and education), between governments and firms (in terms of standards, network leakage reductions, intellectual property on new technologies), and between governments. He identifies the related objectives for the European Union, the United States of America, Japan, Russia, China, India, Brazil, the Middle-East, and Sub-Saharan Africa

  11. Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-11-01

    Design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of K-12 schools in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into construction or renovation plans, schools can reduce energy consumption and costs.

  12. Energy Assurance: Essential Energy Technologies for Climate Protection and Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, David L [ORNL; Boudreaux, Philip R [ORNL; Dean, David Jarvis [ORNL; Fulkerson, William [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Gaddis, Abigail [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Graham, Robin Lambert [ORNL; Graves, Ronald L [ORNL; Hopson, Dr Janet L [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Hughes, Patrick [ORNL; Lapsa, Melissa Voss [ORNL; Mason, Thom [ORNL; Standaert, Robert F [ORNL; Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL; Zucker, Alexander [ORNL

    2009-12-01

    We present and apply a new method for analyzing the significance of advanced technology for achieving two important national energy goals: climate protection and energy security. Quantitative metrics for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and oil independence in 2030 are specified, and the impacts of 11 sets of energy technologies are analyzed using a model that employs the Kaya identity and incorporates the uncertainty of technological breakthroughs. The goals examined are a 50% to 80% reduction in CO2 emissions from energy use by 2050 and increased domestic hydrocarbon fuels supply and decreased demand that sum to 11 mmbd by 2030. The latter is intended to insure that the economic costs of oil dependence are not more than 1% of U.S. GDP with 95% probability by 2030. Perhaps the most important implication of the analysis is that meeting both energy goals requires a high probability of success (much greater than even odds) for all 11 technologies. Two technologies appear to be indispensable for accomplishment of both goals: carbon capture and storage, and advanced fossil liquid fuels. For reducing CO2 by more than 50% by 2050, biomass energy and electric drive (fuel cell or battery powered) vehicles also appear to be necessary. Every one of the 11 technologies has a powerful influence on the probability of achieving national energy goals. From the perspective of technology policy, conflict between the CO2 mitigation and energy security is negligible. These general results appear to be robust to a wide range of technology impact estimates; they are substantially unchanged by a Monte Carlo simulation that allows the impacts of technologies to vary by 20%.

  13. Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petersen, Mark Roger [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division

    2016-09-12

    The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolution below ice shelves and near grounding lines.

  14. Shifts of climate zones in multi-model climate change experiments using the Koeppen climate classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanf, Franziska; Koerper, Janina; Spangehl, Thomas; Cubash, Ulrich [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie

    2012-04-15

    This study investigates the future changes in the climate zones' distribution of the Earth's land area due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in three IPCC SRES emissions scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The Koeppen climate classification is applied to climate simulations of seven atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and their multi-model mean. The evaluation of the skill of the individual climate models compared to an observation-reanalysis-based climate classification provides a first order estimate of relevant model uncertainties and serves as assessment for the confidence in the scenario projections. Uncertainties related to differences in simulation pathways of the future projections are estimated by both, the multi-model ensemble spread of the climate change signals for a given scenario and differences between different scenarios. For the recent climate the individual models fail to capture the exact Koeppen climate types in about 24-39 % of the global land area excluding Antarctica due to temperature and precipitation biases, while the multi-model ensemble mean simulates the present day observation-reanalysis-based distribution of the climate types more accurately. For the end of the 21{sup st} century compared to the present day climate the patterns of change are similar across the three scenarios, while the magnitude of change is largest for the highest emission scenario. Moreover, the temporal development of the climate shifts from the end of the 20st century and during the 21{sup st} century show that changes of the multi-model ensemble mean for the A2 and B1 scenario are generally within the ensemble spread of the individual models for the A1B scenario, illustrating that for the given range of scenarios the model uncertainty is even larger than the spread given by the different GHG concentration pathways. The multi-model ensemble mean's projections show climate shifts to dryer climates in the subtropics

  15. Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

  16. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  17. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  18. Energy taxes, resource taxes and quantity rationing for climate protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisenack, Klaus [Oldenburg Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economics; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Kalkuhl, Matthias [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Economic sectors react strategically to climate policy, aiming at a re-distribution of rents. Established analysis suggests a Pigouvian emission tax as efficient instrument, but also recommends factor input or output taxes under specific conditions. However, existing studies leave it open whether output taxes, input taxes or input rationing perform better, and at best only touch their distributional consequences. When emissions correspond to extracted ressources, it is questionable whether taxes are effective at all. We determine the effectiveness, efficiency and functional income distribution for these instruments in the energy and resource sector, based on a game theoretic growth model with explicit factor markets and policy instruments. Market equilibrium depends on a government that acts as a Stackelberg leader with a climate protection goal. We find that resource taxes and cumulative resource quantity rationing achieve this objective efficiently. Energy taxation is only second best. Mitigation generates a substantial ''climate rent'' in the resource sector that can be converted to transfer incomes by taxes. (orig.)

  19. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  20. Compatibility of the SE4ALL Energy Efficiency Objective with Renewable Energy, Energy Access, and Climate Mitigation Targets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregg, Jay Sterling; Balyk, Olexandr; Solér, Ola

    in the global energy mix (United Nations, 2011; SE4ALL, 2013a). The purpose of this study is to determine to what extent the energy efficiency objective supports the other two objectives, and to what extent the SE4ALL objectives support the climate target of limiting the global mean temperature increase to 2° C......The objectives of the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL), a United Nations (UN) global initiative, are to achieve, by 2030: 1) universal access to modern energy services; 2) a doubling of the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency; and 3) a doubling of the share of renewable energy...... over pre-industrial times. To accomplish this, pathways are constructed for each objective, which then form the basis for a scenario analysis using the Energy Technology System Analysis Program TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (ETSAP-TIAM). We find that, in general, the energy efficiency objective...

  1. Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate policy and renewable energy policy instruments. It shows that, even where CO2 emissions are duly priced, specific incentives for supporting the early deployment of renewable energy technologies are justified by the steep learning curves of nascent technologies. This early investment reduces costs in the longer term and makes renewable energy affordable when it needs to be deployed on a very large scale to fully contribute to climate change mitigation and energy security. The paper also reveals other noteworthy interaction effects of climate policy and renewable policy instruments on the wholesale electricity prices in deregulated markets, which open new areas for future research.

  2. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  3. A Net Energy-based Analysis for a Climate-constrained Sustainable Energy Transition

    OpenAIRE

    Sgouridis, Sgouris; Bardi, Ugo; Csala, Denes

    2015-01-01

    The transition from a fossil-based energy economy to one based on renewable energy is driven by the double challenge of climate change and resource depletion. Building a renewable energy infrastructure requires an upfront energy investment that subtracts from the net energy available to society. This investment is determined by the need to transition to renewable energy fast enough to stave off the worst consequences of climate change and, at the same time, maintain a sufficient net energy fl...

  4. "EARTH: The Operators' Manual" - a hybrid model (TV+online+in-person) to effectively communicate climate change science alongside sustainable energy solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines-stiles, G.; Alley, R. B.; Akuginow, E.

    2011-12-01

    Recent public opinion surveys have found that Americans underestimate the degree of agreement by climate scientists about global warming and climate change, and - despite growing evidence of ice sheet loss, ocean acidification, sea level rise and extreme weather events - believe less in warming trends in 2011 than they did earlier. The issue has become politicized and controversial. "EARTH: The Operators' Manual" is an informal science education project supported by NSF, the National Science Foundation. Its ambitious goal is to use a hybrid mix of broadcast programs appearing on public television and hosted by Penn State geoscientist, Richard Alley, together with on-site outreach events and online resources and tools, to present core climate science in engaging ways, and to combine that presentation of objective research with an overview of sustainable energy solutions. The project's content and communication strategies have been shaped in response to analyses of public opinion such as the SIX AMERICAS study and aim to address common "skeptic" arguments and share essential climate science. Social science research has also found that audiences seem more open to scientific information where the possibility of a positive response is also offered. The first hour-long PBS program aired nationally in April 2011, has since been re-broadcast, and is also available online. Two more programs will air in 2012, and the presentation at the Fall AGU Conference will preview segments from both programs. Five regionally-diverse science centers (in San Diego, Raleigh NC, St. Paul MN, Fort Worth TX and Portland OR) have hosted outreach events, with Richard Alley and other project participants, and will continue with additional activities through summer 2012. The project's website includes video clips, case studies of energy-saving initiatives world-wide and across the USA, plus an interactive "Energy Gauge" inviting users to assess their current Home, Travel, Food, and Goods and

  5. Energy-consumption modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiter, E.R.

    1980-01-01

    A highly sophisticated and accurate approach is described to compute on an hourly or daily basis the energy consumption for space heating by individual buildings, urban sectors, and whole cities. The need for models and specifically weather-sensitive models, composite models, and space-heating models are discussed. Development of the Colorado State University Model, based on heat-transfer equations and on a heuristic, adaptive, self-organizing computation learning approach, is described. Results of modeling energy consumption by the city of Minneapolis and Cheyenne are given. Some data on energy consumption in individual buildings are included.

  6. Impact of climate on energy sector in economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warren, H.E.; LeDuc, S.K.

    1981-12-01

    Assessments of economic conditions by region or sector attempt to include relevant climatic variability through residual adjustment techniques. There is no direct consideration of climatic fluctuations. Three recent severe winters combined with the increasing price of energy have intensified the need to quantify the interaction of climate with the energy sector of the economy. This paper presents examples of the uses of climatic data by utilities, public service commissions and the NOAA Center for Environmental Assessment Services to determine econoclimatic energy relationships at the local, state, regional and national levels. A technique based on the linear relationships between heating degree days and natural gas consumption for space heating is used to quantify the interaction of climate and prices on gas consumption. This provides regional estimates of the response of gas consumption to degree days and price.

  7. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wid

  8. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  9. ESCIMO.spread – a spreadsheet-based point snow surface energy balance model to calculate hourly snow water equivalent and melt rates for historical and changing climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Marke

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the spreadsheet-based point energy balance model ESCIMO.spread which simulates the energy and mass balance as well as melt rates of a snow surface. The model makes use of hourly recordings of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, global and longwave radiation. The effect of potential climate change on the seasonal evolution of the snow cover can be estimated by modifying the time series of observed temperature and precipitation by means of adjustable parameters. Model output is graphically visualized in hourly and daily diagrams. The results compare well with weekly measured snow water equivalent (SWE. The model is easily portable and adjustable, and runs particularly fast: hourly calculation of a one winter season is instantaneous on a standard computer. ESICMO.spread can be obtained from the authors on request (contact: ulrich.strasser@uni-graz.at.

  10. Energy Partition From Various Climate Conditions And Land Use Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Chi-Han; Hsu2, Pang-Chi

    2015-04-01

    Investigating how energy partitions and what factors control energy exchange is critical for better understanding the hydrological cycle, boundary layer dynamics, and land -atmosphere coupling. Climate and land use conditions are the two main factors to control energy partitation. However, previous studies discussed energy partition and factors that controlled Bowen ratio (i.e., ratio of sensible heat flux to latent heat flux) in limited land use types and climate conditions. To provide a more comprehensive analysis over various climate and vegetation types, in this study, we studied eleven different land use types in the eight different climate zones within the United State. The results found out that the Mediterranean climate zone with dry summer season, dry arid (desert) climate zone, and the higher latitude area with severe winter would had higher Bowen ratio, lower precipitation and net radiation. In contrast, the humid climate zones had the lower Bowen ratio, higher net radiation and precipitation. Moreover, the higher Bowen ratio usually happened in the winter or early spring seasons. Regarding land conditions, it is found that soil moistures are the key factor to control Bowen ratio in the drier climate areas. Hence, the grassland and closed shrublands sites have higher Bowen ratio than deciduous broadleaf forests and evergreen needle-leaf forests sites' because of shallower root systems that lack access to the full storage of water in the vadose zone. However, in the humid areas, land use factors, such as stomatal resistance and leaf area, would play an important role in changing latent heat and sensible heat. Based on the tight relationships between Bowen ratio and conditions of climate and land use, we suggest that Bowen ratio could be a useful tool for understanding the potential feedbacks of changes in climate and land use to energy partition and exchange.

  11. An Appraisal of Coupled Climate Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K; Gleckler, P; Covey, C; Taylor, K; Bader, D; Phillips, T; Fiorino, M; Achutarao, K

    2004-02-24

    In 2002, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) proposed the concept for a state-of-the-science appraisal of climate models to be performed approximately every two years. Motivation for this idea arose from the perceived needs of the international modeling groups and the broader climate research community to document progress more frequently than provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. A committee of external reviewers, which included senior researchers from four leading international modeling centers, supported the concept by stating in its review: ''The panel enthusiastically endorses the suggestion that PCMDI develop an independent appraisal of coupled model performance every 2-3 years. This would provide a useful 'mid-course' evaluation of modeling progress in the context of larger IPCC and national assessment activities, and should include both coupled and single-component model evaluations.''

  12. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo; Booth, Ben; Duan, Qingyun; Forest, Chris; Higdon, Dave; Hou, Z. Jason; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-05-01

    The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for

  13. Mixing parametrizations for ocean climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, Anatoly; Moshonkin, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    The algorithm is presented of splitting the total evolutionary equations for the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and turbulence dissipation frequency (TDF), which is used to parameterize the viscosity and diffusion coefficients in ocean circulation models. The turbulence model equations are split into the stages of transport-diffusion and generation-dissipation. For the generation-dissipation stage, the following schemes are implemented: the explicit-implicit numerical scheme, analytical solution and the asymptotic behavior of the analytical solutions. The experiments were performed with different mixing parameterizations for the modelling of Arctic and the Atlantic climate decadal variability with the eddy-permitting circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) using vertical grid refinement in the zone of fully developed turbulence. The proposed model with the split equations for turbulence characteristics is similar to the contemporary differential turbulence models, concerning the physical formulations. At the same time, its algorithm has high enough computational efficiency. Parameterizations with using the split turbulence model make it possible to obtain more adequate structure of temperature and salinity at decadal timescales, compared to the simpler Pacanowski-Philander (PP) turbulence parameterization. Parameterizations with using analytical solution or numerical scheme at the generation-dissipation step of the turbulence model leads to better representation of ocean climate than the faster parameterization using the asymptotic behavior of the analytical solution. At the same time, the computational efficiency left almost unchanged relative to the simple PP parameterization. Usage of PP parametrization in the circulation model leads to realistic simulation of density and circulation with violation of T,S-relationships. This error is majorly avoided with using the proposed parameterizations containing the split turbulence model

  14. Modeling and assessing international climate financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

    2016-06-01

    Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

  15. Energy, atmospheric chemistry, and global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    Global atmospheric changes due to ozone destruction and the greenhouse effect are discussed. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is reviewed, including its judgements regarding global warming and its recommendations for improving predictive capability. The chemistry of ozone destruction and the global atmospheric budget of nitrous oxide are reviewed, and the global sources of nitrous oxide are described.

  16. COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Weber, Elke; Berger, Loïc; Budescu, David V.; Liu, Ning; Tavoni, Massimo

    2017-02-01

    Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest.

  17. Industrial Energy Efficiency and Climate Change Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Bernstein, Lenny; Roy, Joyashree; Price, Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Harnisch, Jochen

    2009-02-02

    Industry contributes directly and indirectly (through consumed electricity) about 37% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, of which over 80% is from energy use. Total energy-related emissions, which were 9.9 GtCO2 in 2004, have grown by 65% since 1971. Even so, industry has almost continuously improved its energy efficiency over the past decades. In the near future, energy efficiency is potentially the most important and cost-effective means for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from industry. This paper discusses the potential contribution of industrial energy efficiency technologies and policies to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030.

  18. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

    2004-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling toolsfor examining the impact of climate change...... on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: - Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period(1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations...... for a small increase in the annual wind energyresource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 – December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 – December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during thewinter season...

  19. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  20. Indoor climate quality after renovation for improved energy efficiency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gunnarsen, Lars Bo; Løck, Sebastian; Kolarik, Barbara

    2016-01-01

    The building sector is responsible for approximately 40 % of the Danish energy consumption. As every year less than 1 % of the building stock is rebuild after demolition of old buildings, improved energy efficiency of existing buildings are in focus. In the late seventies to mid-eighties unwise...... energy efficiency retrofitting caused several cases of indoor climate degradation. This project describes possibilities, barriers and methods of combining energy performance and indoor climate enhancements in today’s retrofitting of rental dwellings. The project followed three energy retrofitting...... before and after the retrofitting. The results showed significant energy savings in all projects. There was a marked difference between expected and measured energy consumption in one building and good agreement in the two others indicating a strong impact of good maintenance and operations on energy...

  1. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  2. Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewell, Jessica; Vinichenko, Vadim; McCollum, David; Bauer, Nico; Riahi, Keywan; Aboumahboub, Tino; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kober, Tom; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van der Zwaan, Bob; Cherp, Aleh

    2016-06-01

    Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2-15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ∘C.

  3. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

    2013-01-01

    model, HIRHAM. The physics of the coupling is formulated using an energy-based SVAT (land surface) model while the numerical coupling exploits the OpenMI modelling interface. First, some investigations of the applicability of the SVAT model are presented, including our ability to characterise...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...

  4. Uncertainty of biomass contributions from agriculture and forestry to renewable energy resources under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Gutsch

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In the future, Germany's land-use policies and the impacts of climate change on yields will affect the amount of biomass available for energy production. We used recent published data on biomass potentials in the federal states of Germany to assess the uncertainty caused by climate change effects in the potential supply of biomass available for energy production. In this study we selected three climate scenarios representing the maximum, mean and minimum temperature increase for Germany out of 21 CMIP5-projections driven by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 scenario. Each of the three selected projections was downscaled using the regional statistical climate model STARS. We analysed the yield changes of four biomass feedstock crops (forest, short-rotation coppices (SRC, cereal straw (winter wheat and energy maize for the period 2031–2060 in comparison to 1981–2010. The mean annual yield changes of energy wood from forest and short-rotation coppices were modelled using the process-based forest growth model 4C. The yield changes of winter wheat and energy maize from agricultural production were simulated with the statistical yield model IRMA. Germany's annual biomass potential of 1500 PJ varies between minus 5 % and plus 8 % depending on the climate scenario realisation. Assuming that 1500 PJ of biomass utilisation can be achieved, climate change effects of minus 75 (5 % PJ or plus 120 (8 % PJ do not impede overall bioenergy targets of 1287 PJ in 2020 and 1534 PJ in 2050. In five federal states the climate scenarios lead to decreasing yields of energy maize and winter wheat. Impacts of climate scenarios on forest yields are mainly positive and show both positive and negative effects on yields of SRC.

  5. An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iotova, A. [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

    1995-12-31

    A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

  6. Energy policy design and China’s local climate governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ting, Guan; Delman, Jørgen

    2017-01-01

    This study probes into climate policy design at city level in China, with Hangzhou’s energy efficiency and renewable energy policies between 2005 and 2014 as a case. The study applies a political action arena approach to accentuate the importance of different normative preferences behind climate...... energy efficiency is a more mature and comprehensive political action arena than renewable energy. The study also finds that there has been a significant shift away from preferences towards command-and-control to more marketbased instruments, while cooperative governance instruments are still...... change policies in relation to Hangzhou’s emerging urban climate governance regime. Three main categories of policy instruments are identified: i.e. command-and-control, market-based, and collaborative governance instruments, and their development over time is examined. It is concluded that in Hangzhou...

  7. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  8. Opportunity knocks - the sustainable energy industry and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, B.; Keegan, P. [International Institute for Energy Conservation, Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Climate change mitigation, if intelligently undertaken, can stimulate economic growth. The main tools available for this task are energy efficiency, renewable energy, and clean energy technologies and services, which are collectively known as sustainable energy. To unleash this potential, the US and other governments need the full cooperation of the sustainable energy industry. This industry knows more than most other about turning energy-related pollution prevention into profits. If engaged, they can help: (1) Identify the economic benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation; (2) Identify barriers to the implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation projects; (3) Develop policies and measures to overcome these barriers; and (4) Implement greenhouse gas mitigation projects. 7 refs.

  9. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  10. Energy upgrading measures improve also indoor climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foldbjerg, Peter; Knudsen, Henrik Nellemose

    2014-01-01

    to increase the number of homeowners who venture into a major energy upgrading of their house, the demonstrated positive side effects, more than energy savings, should be included in the communication to motivate homeowners. The barriers should be reduced by “taking the homeowners by the hand” and helping...

  11. Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

  12. Health and climate benefits of different energy-efficiency and renewable energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Luckow, Patrick; Norris, Gregory; Spengler, John D.; Biewald, Bruce; Fisher, Jeremy; Levy, Jonathan I.

    2016-01-01

    Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) can benefit public health and the climate by displacing emissions from fossil-fuelled electrical generating units (EGUs). Benefits can vary substantially by EE/RE installation type and location, due to differing electricity generation or savings by location, characteristics of the electrical grid and displaced power plants, along with population patterns. However, previous studies have not formally examined how these dimensions individually and jointly contribute to variability in benefits across locations or EE/RE types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a high-resolution model to simulate and compare the monetized public health and climate benefits of four different illustrative EE/RE installation types in six different locations within the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes of the United States. Annual benefits using central estimates for all pathways ranged from US$5.7-US$210 million (US$14-US$170 MWh-1), emphasizing the importance of site-specific information in accurately estimating public health and climate benefits of EE/RE efforts.

  13. The Paris-Nairobi climate initiative. Access to clean energy for all in Africa and countries vulnerable to climate change. Access to energy, sustainable development and climate change; Initiative climat Paris-Nairobi. Acces aux energies propres en Afrique et dans les pays vulnerables au changement climatique. Livre-Blanc, Acces a l'energie, developpement durable et changements climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-04-21

    The first part of this report highlights the importance of a universal access to energy, the role of public policies and renewable energies, the need to implement sustainable economic models for energy services, and indicates the major objectives and essential actions for these purposes. The second part outlines the weakness of electricity production in Africa, the degradation of the energy mix balance, the vulnerability to climate change, and the fact that Africa, like other countries vulnerable to climate change, possess huge and unexploited renewable energy resources (biomass, hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind). The third part proposes an approach to energy services by developing sustainable cooking, supplying energy to support rural development and to poles of economic growth, by developing sustainable cities (notably in transports and buildings), and by developing national and regional electricity grids. The last part addresses the issue of energy financing in developing countries

  14. National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, C.W. (Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States))

    1993-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration is developing a new National Energy Modeling System to provide annual forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices on a regional basis in the United States and, to a limited extent, in the rest of the world. The design for the system was based on a requirements analysis, a comparison of requirements with existing modeling capabilities, and a series of widely circulated issue papers defining the choices and tradeoffs for 13 key design decisions. An initial prototpye of the new NEMS was implemented in late 1992, with a more complete, operational version in 1993. NEMS is expected to provide EIA and other users with a greatly enhanced ability to illustrate quickly and effectively the effects of a wide range of energy policy proposals.

  15. Indoor climate in renovated and energy retrofitted social housing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Henrik Nellemose; Jensen, Ole Michael

    2016-01-01

    The need for energy retrofitting of the Danish single-family houses is massive, especially for the high proportion of single-family houses built in the 1960s and 1970s. But even though the potential benefits are many, only few families embark on a major energy retrofit. There may be many reasons...... for this. An obvious one may be limited knowledge of non-energy benefits, e.g. in relation to the indoor climate. The objective of this study was to explain this limited effort to save energy by identifying barriers and incentives among house owners in relation to energy retrofitting of one’s own house....... Moreover, it was investigated among house owners, who had carried out energy retrofitting, whether a number of factors, including the perceived indoor climate, became better or worse after retrofitting. A questionnaire survey was carried out among 1,990 house owners in a municipality north of Copenhagen...

  16. Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Congbin; Wang, Shuyu; Xiong, Zhe; Gutowski, William J.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; McGregor, John L.; Sato, Yasuo; Kato, Hisashi; Kim, Jeong-Woo; Suh, Myoung-Seok

    2005-02-01

    Improving the simulation of regional climate change is one of the high-priority areas of climate study because regional information is needed for climate change impact assessments. Such information is especially important for the region covered by the East Asian monsoon where there is high variability in both space and time. To this end, the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP) for Asia has been established to evaluate and improve regional climate model (RCM) simulations of the monsoon climate. RMIP operates under joint support of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and several projects of participating nations. The project currently involves 10 research groups from Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, as well as scientists from India, Italy, Mongolia, North Korea, and Russia.RMIP has three simulation phases: March 1997-August 1998, which covers a full annual cycle and extremes in monsoon behavior; January 1989-December 1998, which examines simulated climatology; and a regional climate change scenario, involving nesting with a global model. This paper is a brief report of RMIP goals, implementation design, and some initial results from the first phase studies.

  17. Nuclear energy and climate change; Energia nuclear y cambio climatico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Jimenez, A.

    2002-07-01

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO{sub 2} emissions. (Author)

  18. Supporting Teachers in Climate Change Instruction - The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) Tool Kit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, A. U.; Ledley, T. S.; Buhr, S. M.; Manduca, C. A.; Fox, S.; Kirk, K. B.; Grogan, M.; Niepold, F.; Carley, S.; Lynds, S. E.; Howell, C. D.

    2012-12-01

    The topic of climate change comes up regularly in news stories and household discussions. However, a recent poll among teenagers about their knowledge of climate change shows that teenagers' understanding of the basics of the climate system is minimal with 54% receiving a failing grade (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The upcoming Next Generation Science Standards emphasize that solid knowledge about climate change and sustainability is essential for students to be prepared for the decisions the next generation of citizens will face. We summarize the needs described by educators in a national, multi-year informant pool study focused on climate instruction, and outline the demands the new Next Generation Science Standards are posing on educators, in terms of climate and sustainability instruction. We then showcase different tools available to educators to address these needs. The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN, cleanet.org) supports educators in addressing these challenges and assists them in their teaching about climate topics. In this presentation we will demonstrate the various avenues through which the CLEAN portal can help educators improve their own climate and energy literacy, support them in determining why and how to effectively integrate the climate and energy principles into their teaching, and facilitate their successful use of the resources with their students. This will include a brief overview of the following features: a) The breadth of the collection , which contains over 450 reviewed resources, and the multi-faceted search that can help educators quickly find materials that are most relevant to their needs; b) Annotations of individual resources that provide information extracted from the reviews about the science, pedagogy, and teaching tips, as well as indicating the relevant climate or energy principles and the AAAS Benchmarks for Science Literacy, the National Science Education Standards, and the Guidelines for Excellence in

  19. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  20. Renewable Energy Deployment as Climate Change Mitigation in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olotu Yahaya

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The scientific evidence of climate change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions which causes ozone layer depletion is becoming increasingly obvious and clear. Findings revealed that energy from the fossil fuel is the major source of greenhouse emission which destroys the environment and makes it unhealthy for living beings. In Nigeria, conventional energy (oil and gas with gas flaring has the highest percentage of 52% and liquid fuel of 32% of carbon dioxide (CO2 respectively. This sector contributes revenue of over 70% to Nigeria’s economy and generates an average total 21.8% of greenhouse gas emission. In Nigeria, there is a much more potential for share renewables with 15.4% of total energy production and 8.6 % of energy consumption. In reality with global environmental concern, Nigeria’s carbon dioxide emissions have increased with energy production and consumption. The Integrated Renewable Energy Master Plan of 2008 projects a 26.7% renewable energy contribution to the Nigeria’s energy use and this is expected to reduce CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions at 38% by2025. Nigeria has not been playing significant role by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper highlights Nigeria’s climate change situation and penetration requirements for various renewable energy deployments as mitigating instrument for climate change towards healthy and productive environment.

  1. Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forster, P M A F; Taylor, K E

    2006-07-25

    A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). This 'climate forcing' differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semi-direct effects that account for certain short timescale responses in the troposphere. Firstly, we calculate a climate feedback term from reported values of 2 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-year simulations by twenty AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1%/year. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that we diagnose from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We find partial compensation between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the inter-model differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in 20th and 21st Century simulations in the AOGCMs. We validate the technique using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings we diagnose agree with the conventional forcing time series within {approx}10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of two differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate

  2. Towards a science of climate and energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.; Sovacool, Benjamin K.; Dietz, Thomas

    2016-06-01

    The linked problems of energy sustainability and climate change are among the most complex and daunting facing humanity at the start of the twenty-first century. This joint Nature Energy and Nature Climate Change Collection illustrates how understanding and addressing these problems will require an integrated science of coupled human and natural systems; including technological systems, but also extending well beyond the domain of engineering or even economics. It demonstrates the value of replacing the stylized assumptions about human behaviour that are common in policy analysis, with ones based on data-driven science. We draw from and engage articles in the Collection to identify key contributions to understanding non-technological factors connecting economic activity and greenhouse gas emissions, describe a multi-dimensional space of human action on climate and energy issues, and illustrate key themes, dimensions and contributions towards fundamental understanding and informed decision making.

  3. Renewable and low-carbon energies as mitigation options of climate change for China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urban, F.; Benders, R. M. J.; Moll, H. C.

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses how renewable and low-carbon energies can serve as mitigation options of climate change in China's power sector. Our study is based on scenarios developed in PowerPlan, a bottom-up model simulating a countries' power sector and its emissions. We first adjusted the model to Chi

  4. The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, W D; Blackmon, M; Bitz, C; Bonan, G; Bretherton, C S; Carton, J A; Chang, P; Doney, S; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Henderson, T; Large, W G; McKenna, D; Santer, B D; Smith, R D

    2004-12-27

    A new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for atmosphere and land and a 1-degree grid for ocean and sea-ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the scientific formulation. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed-layer processes, and sea-ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea-ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, equatorial sea-surface temperatures, ocean currents, cloud radiative effects, and ENSO teleconnections. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millenial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean-atmosphere fluxes in western coastal regions, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. We conclude with the prospects for extending CCSM to a more comprehensive model of the Earth's climate system.

  5. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    OpenAIRE

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s...

  6. Climate Change Resilience Planning at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, D. W.; Johnson, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a site sustainability plan for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina in accordance with Executive Order 13693, which charges each DOE agency with "identifying and addressing projected impacts of climate change" and "calculating the potential cost and risk to mission associated with agency operations". The plan will comprise i) projections of climate change, ii) surveys of site managers to estimate the effects of climate change on site operations, and iii) a determination of adaptive actions. Climate change projections for SRS are obtained from multiple sources, including an online repository of downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations of future climate and downscaled GCM simulations produced at SRNL. Taken together, we have projected data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind - all variables with a strong influence on site operations. SRNL is working to engage site facility managers and facilitate a "bottom up" approach to climate change resilience planning, where the needs and priorities of stakeholders are addressed throughout the process. We make use of the Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool, an Excel-based program designed to accept as input various climate scenarios ('exposure'), the susceptibility of assets to climate change ('sensitivity'), and the ability of these assets to cope with climate change ('adaptive capacity'). These are combined to produce a series of scores that highlight vulnerabilities. Working with site managers, we have selected the most important assets, estimated their expected response to climate change, and prepared a report highlighting the most endangered facilities. Primary risks include increased energy consumption, decreased water availability, increased forest fire danger, natural resource degradation, and compromised outdoor worker safety in a warmer and more humid climate. Results of this study will aid in driving

  7. Simulation-based coefficients for adjusting climate impact on energy consumption of commercial buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Na; Makhmalbaf, Atefe; Srivastava, Viraj; Hathaway, John E.

    2016-11-23

    This paper presents a new technique for and the results of normalizing building energy consumption to enable a fair comparison among various types of buildings located near different weather stations across the U.S. The method was developed for the U.S. Building Energy Asset Score, a whole-building energy efficiency rating system focusing on building envelope, mechanical systems, and lighting systems. The Asset Score is calculated based on simulated energy use under standard operating conditions. Existing weather normalization methods such as those based on heating and cooling degrees days are not robust enough to adjust all climatic factors such as humidity and solar radiation. In this work, over 1000 sets of climate coefficients were developed to separately adjust building heating, cooling, and fan energy use at each weather station in the United States. This paper also presents a robust, standardized weather station mapping based on climate similarity rather than choosing the closest weather station. This proposed simulated-based climate adjustment was validated through testing on several hundreds of thousands of modeled buildings. Results indicated the developed climate coefficients can isolate and adjust for the impacts of local climate for asset rating.

  8. CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Pt. 1. Model description and performance for present climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petoukhov, V.; Ganopolski, A.; Brovkin, V.; Claussen, M.; Eliseev, A.; Kubatzki, C.; Rahmstorf, S.

    1998-02-01

    A 2.5-dimensional climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 and its performance for present climate conditions are presented. The model consists of modules describing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface processes, terrestrial vegetation cover, and global carbon cycle. The modules interact (on-line) through the fluxes of momentum, energy, water and carbon. The model has a coarse spatial resolution, allowing nevertheless to capture the major features of the Earth`s geography. The model describes temporal variability of the system on seasonal and longer time scales. Due to the fact that the model does not employ any type of flux adjustment and has fast turnaround time, it can be used for study of climates significantly different from the present one and allows to perform long-term (multimillennia) simulations. The constraints for coupling the atmosphere and ocean without flux adjustment are discussed. The results of a model validation against present climate data show that the model successfully describes the seasonal variability of a large set of characteristics of the climate system, including radiative balance, temperature, precipitation, ocean circulation and cryosphere. (orig.) 62 refs.

  9. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2013-08-01

    A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

  10. Climatic Effects of Contrail Cirrus over the Western United States: A Regional Climate Model Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, K.; Ou, S. S.; Kim, J.; Gu, Y.; Yang, P.; Friedl, R. R.

    2009-12-01

    We investigate the impact of contrails and contrail induced cirrus clouds (CICC) on regional energy and water cycles over the Western United States (WUS), a region of both heavy air traffic and high climate sensitivity. Mountain snowpack in the WUS is a major source of warm-season water supply for Southern California and is highly sensitive to seasonal insolation variation, which can be significantly affected by the frequent presence of contrails/CICC. A regional climate model with an 18-km horizontal resolution based on the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model has been developed, which includes improved parameterizations of the optical properties of ice clouds and contrails in the Fu-Liou broadband radiative transfer model. The large-scale forcing data for driving regional climate simulations has been obtained from the NCEP/DOE re-analysis-2. We conduct multiple-year perpetual-spring climate runs to simulate the current climate conditions of the WUS and to investigate the climatic impact of contrails/CICC on radiative forcing, surface temperature, precipitation, and snowpack coverage. As a first approximation, we develop a linear correlation between available aviation emission data and contrail cover using the existing GCM results as proxy. Additionally, we use the ice crystal size spectrum and shape determined from the Subsonic Aircraft Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study (SUCCESS) for calculations of the optical properties of contrails/CICC for input to the regional climate model. Preliminary simulation results and uncertainty analysis are presented in association with the effects of contrails/CICC cover and ice crystal size/shape on surface radiative forcing, surface temperature, and snow cover over the WUS in spring.

  11. Energy modelling towards low carbon development of Beijing in 2030

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Guangling; Guerrero, Josep M.; Jiang, Kejun;

    2017-01-01

    Beijing, as the capital of China, is under the high pressure of climate change and pollution. The consumption of non-renewable energy is one of the most important sources of the CO2 emissions, which cause climate changes. This paper presents a study on the energy system modelling towards renewable...... energy and low carbon development for the city of Beijing. The analysis of energy system modelling is organized in two steps to explore the alternative renewable energy system in Beijing. Firstly, a reference energy system of Beijing is created based on the available data in 2014. The Energy......PLAN, an energy system analysis tool, is chosen to develop the reference energy model. Secondly, this reference model is used to investigate the alternative energy system for integrating renewable energies. Three scenarios are developed towards the energy system of Beijing in 2030, which are: (i) reference...

  12. Database of Low-e Storm Window Energy Performance across U.S. Climate Zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Culp, Thomas D.; Cort, Katherine A.

    2014-09-04

    This is an update of a report that describes process, assumptions, and modeling results produced Create a Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows. The scope of the overall effort is to develop a database of energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN model calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by cliamte zone.

  13. 40% Whole-House Energy Savings in the Hot-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2011-09-01

    This guide book is a resource to help builders design and construct highly energy-efficient homes, while addressing building durability, indoor air quality, and occupant health, safety, and comfort. With the measures described in this guide, builders in the hot-humid climate can build homes that achieve whole house energy savings of 40% over the Building America benchmark (the 1993 Model Energy Code) with no added overall costs for consumers.

  14. 40% Whole-House Energy Savings in the Mixed-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baechler, Michael C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gilbride, T. L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hefty, M. G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cole, P. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Adams, K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Butner, R. S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ortiz, S. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Love, Pat M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2011-09-01

    This guide book is a resource to help builders design and construct highly energy-efficient homes, while addressing building durability, indoor air quality, and occupant health, safety, and comfort. With the measures described in this guide, builders in the mixed-humid climate can build homes that achieve whole house energy savings of 40% over the Building America benchmark (the 1993 Model Energy Code) with no added overall costs for consumers.

  15. Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Morgan R.; Trancik, Jessika E.

    2014-05-01

    Energy technologies emit greenhouse gases with differing radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Standard practice for evaluating technologies, which uses the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the integrated radiative forcing of emitted gases over a fixed time horizon, does not acknowledge the importance of a changing background climate relative to climate change mitigation targets. Here we demonstrate that the GWP misvalues the impact of CH4-emitting technologies as mid-century approaches, and we propose a new class of metrics to evaluate technologies based on their time of use. The instantaneous climate impact (ICI) compares gases in an expected radiative forcing stabilization year, and the cumulative climate impact (CCI) compares their time-integrated radiative forcing up to a stabilization year. Using these dynamic metrics, we quantify the climate impacts of technologies and show that high-CH4-emitting energy sources become less advantageous over time. The impact of natural gas for transportation, with CH4 leakage, exceeds that of gasoline within 1-2 decades for a commonly cited 3 W m-2 stabilization target. The impact of algae biodiesel overtakes that of corn ethanol within 2-3 decades, where algae co-products are used to produce biogas and corn co-products are used for animal feed. The proposed metrics capture the changing importance of CH4 emissions as a climate threshold is approached, thereby addressing a major shortcoming of the GWP for technology evaluation.

  16. NGSS, Climate & Energy: Teaching About Climate Change Without Teaching About Energy Is Like Teaching About Lung Cancer Without Teaching About Smoking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan-Haas, D.

    2013-12-01

    reliance largely on fossil fuels, through the lens of the crosscutting concepts: 1. Patterns. 2. Cause and effect: Mechanism and explanation.3. Scale, proportion, and quantity.4. Systems and system models. 5. Energy and matter. 6. Structure and function. 7. Stability and change. And, we will connect to other resources and strategies for effectively addressing climate and energy in the context of NGSS. The Geography of Energy: an excerpt of a map showing electric power net generation by source for the Northeast.

  17. Climate model uncertainty vs. conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. O. Sonnenborg

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including CO2 emission scenario, climate model, downscaling and impact model. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B. The changes from the reference period (1991–2010 to the future period (2081–2100 in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty on the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.

  18. Modeling Innovations Advance Wind Energy Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    In 1981, Glenn Research Center scientist Dr. Larry Viterna developed a model that predicted certain elements of wind turbine performance with far greater accuracy than previous methods. The model was met with derision from others in the wind energy industry, but years later, Viterna discovered it had become the most widely used method of its kind, enabling significant wind energy technologies-like the fixed pitch turbines produced by manufacturers like Aerostar Inc. of Westport, Massachusetts-that are providing sustainable, climate friendly energy sources today.

  19. Climate, energy and poverty reduction; Klimaat, energie en armoedebestrijding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-11-15

    Up till now, there has been a strong emphasis in international climate policy and research on reducing emissions and capturing/storing greenhouse gases. Collectively, these processes are typically referred to as mitigation. Even if we were to embark on a global mitigation programme today, the temperature in various parts of the world would continue to rise over the next few decades, allowing the other effects and manifestations of climate change to continue unabated. This means that in addition to alleviating climate change in all its myriad forms, we need to adapt to its effects. Adaptation entails devising a comprehensive set of facilities (including infrastructural facilities) and other measures - not in order to prevent the manifestations of climate change, but rather to respond to their harmful effects, both present and future. There is a broad realisation that adaptation should be addressed with the same sense of urgency as mitigation. At present, the effects of climate change are mainly making themselves felt in vulnerable developing countries, which have contributed the least to the problem. These effects impede our progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. Under international law, industrialised countries have a responsibility to aid vulnerable developing countries in their fight against the effects of climate change and the damage it causes. This responsibility arises from the general duty of international cooperation, the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, and the principle of intergenerational equity (i.e. the obligation to take account of the interests of future generations). These principles are all firmly anchored in international law. The 'polluter pays principle', which has been accepted by the countries of the OECD, is also enshrined in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (article 191, paragraph 2). In the opinion of the AIV, this principle, which also appears as principle 16 of the 1992 Rio

  20. Energy supply options for climate change mitigation and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobran, Flavio

    2010-09-15

    Modern society is dependent on fossil fuels for its energy needs, but their combustion is producing emissions of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. If these emissions remain unconstrained they risk of producing significant impacts on humanity and ecosystems. Replacement of fossil fuels with alternative energy sources can stabilize anthropogenic global warming and thus reduce the climate change impacts. The deployment of alternative energy supply technologies should be based on objectives that are consistent with sustainability indicators and incorporate quantitative risk assessment multiattribute utility decision methodologies capable of ascertaining effective future energy supply options.

  1. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  2. Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

  3. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V. [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA (United States); Diaz, Henry F. [NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Nino events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region. (orig.)

  4. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  5. Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Kelly E.

    . We show that upon cessation, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside the bounds of 20th century climate variability. We then use an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to further show the sensitivity of these trends to background greenhouse gas emissions, termination year, and climate sensitivity. We find that the rate of warming from cessation of solar radiation management -- of critical importance for ecological and human systems -- is principally controlled by the background greenhouse gas concentrations. It follows that the only way to avoid the risk of an abrupt and dangerous warming that is inherent to the large-scale implementation of solar radiation management is to also strongly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The climate system responds to radiative forcing on a diverse spectrum of timescales, which will affect what goals can be achieved for a given stratospheric aerosol implementation. We next investigate how different rates of stratospheric sulfate aerosol deployment affect what climate impacts can be avoided by simulating two rates of increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations in a fully-coupled global climate model. We find that disparate goals are achieved for different rates of deployment; for a slow ramping of sulfate, land surface temperature trends remain small but sea levels continue to rise for decades, whereas a quick ramp-up of sulfate yields large land surface cooling trends and immediately reduces sea level. However, atmospheric circulation changes also act to create a large-scale subsurface ocean environment around Antarctica that is favorable for increased basal melting of ice sheet outlets, thereby leaving the potential open for increased sea level rise even in the absence of large atmospheric surface warming. We show that instead, when greenhouse gases are abruptly returned to preindustrial levels, circulation anomalies are reversed, and the subsurface ocean environment

  6. In-School Sustainability Action: Climate Clever Energy Savers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, John; Schuck, Sandy; Aubusson, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The mandate for living sustainably is becoming increasingly urgent. This article reports on the Climate Clever Energy Savers (CCES) Program, a student-centred, problem- and project-based program in New South Wales, Australia, aimed at enabling school students to identify ways of reducing their schools' electricity consumption and costs. As part of…

  7. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  8. Modeling interactions between land cover and climate in integrated assessment models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) link representations of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate in an internally consistent framework. These models are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate, energy, and other policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. Additionally, these models are used to develop future scenarios of emissions and land cover for use in climate models (e.g., RCPs and CMIP5). Land use is strongly influenced by assumptions about population, income, diet, ecosystem productivity change, and climate policy. Population, income, and diet determine the amount of food production needed in the future. Assumptions about future changes in crop yields due to agronomic developments influence the amount of land needed to produce food crops. Climate policy has implications for land when land-based mitigation options (e.g., afforestation and bioenergy) are considered. IAM models consider each of these factors in their computation of land use in the future. As each of these factors is uncertain in the future, IAM models use scenario analysis to explore the implications of each. For example, IAMs have been used to explore the effect of different mitigation policies on land cover. These models can quantify the trade-offs in terms of land cover, energy prices, food prices, and mitigation costs of each of these policies. Furthermore, IAMs are beginning to explore the effect of climate change on land productivity, and the implications that changes in productivity have on mitigation efforts. In this talk, we describe the implications for future land use and land cover of a variety of socioeconomic, technological, and policy drivers in several IAM models. Additionally, we will discuss the effects of future land cover on climate and the effects of climate on future land cover, as simulated

  9. Land use effects on climate in China as simulated by a regional climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO XueJie; ZHANG DongFeng; CHEN ZhongXin; J.S.PAL; F. GIORGI

    2007-01-01

    A regional climate model (RegCM3)nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987-2001),one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic activities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter. Land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change significantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, decreased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China).In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China.

  10. Land use effects on climate in China as simulated by a regional climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    J.S.PAL; F.GIORGI

    2007-01-01

    A regional climate model (RegCM3) nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987―2001), one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic ac- tivities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter, land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change signifi- cantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, de- creased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China). In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China.

  11. The Challenges and Potential of Nuclear Energy for Addressing Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Son H.; Edmonds, James A.

    2007-10-24

    The response to climate change and the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has major implications for the global energy system. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations requires a peak and an indefinite decline of global CO2 emissions. Nuclear energy, along with other technologies, has the potential to contribute to the growing demand for energy without emitting CO2. Nuclear energy is of particular interest because of its global prevalence and its current significant contribution, nearly 20%, to the world’s electricity supply. We have investigated the value of nuclear energy in addressing climate change, and have explored the potential challenges for the rapid and large-scale expansion of nuclear energy as a response to climate change. The scope of this study is long-term and the modeling time frame extends out a century because the nature of nuclear energy and climate change dictate that perspective. Our results indicate that the value of the nuclear technology option for addressing climate change is denominated in trillions of dollars. Several-fold increases to the value of the nuclear option can be expected if there is limited availability of competing carbon-free technologies, particularly fossil-fuel based technologies that can capture and sequester carbon. Challenges for the expanded global use of nuclear energy include the global capacity for nuclear construction, proliferation, uranium availability, and waste disposal. While the economic costs of nuclear fuel and power are important, non-economic issues transcend the issues of costs. In this regard, advanced nuclear technologies and new vision for the global use of nuclear energy are important considerations for the future of nuclear power and climate change.

  12. Variational formulation of Budyko-Sellers climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, G. R.; Howard, L.; Pollard, D.; Wielicki, B.

    1979-01-01

    A class of simple climate models including those of the Budyko-Sellers type are formulated from a variational principle. A functional is constructed for the zonally averaged mean annual temperature field such that extrema of the functional occur when the climate satisfies the usual energy-balance equation. Local minima of the functional correspond to stable solutions while saddle points correspond to unstable solutions. The technique can be used to construct approximate solutions from trial functions and to carry out finite-amplitude stability analyses. A spectral example is given in explicit detail.

  13. Teaching about Climate Change and Energy with Online Materials and Workshops from On the Cutting Edge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, K. B.; Manduca, C. A.; Myers, J. D.; Loxsom, F.

    2009-12-01

    -playing, inquiry-based learning via online data sets, and the use of computer models. The website houses course descriptions and syllabi for both introductory-level and upper-level climate courses contributed by faculty. Collections of climate visualizations and recommended references help faculty navigate to online materials that are best suited for their classroom. The On the Cutting Edge program features a biennial workshop series about teaching climate change, held in conjunction with the American Quaternary Association. Presentations, teaching ideas and references from the 2006 and 2008 workshops are available, along with applications for the upcoming workshop to be held in August 2010. All of these materials can be found at http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/energy and http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/climatechange. Faculty are encouraged to submit their own teaching materials to the web collections via on-line forms for submitting information and uploading files.

  14. Coping with climate change and China's wind energy sustainable development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De-Xin He

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause of today's climate change. To address this problem, the world is in an era of new round energy transformation, and the existing energy structure is being reformed. In this paper, according to the Chinese government's action plan for coping with climate change, the China's wind energy sustainable development goals and development route are discussed, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Wind energy is currently a kind of important renewable energy with matured technology which can be scale-up developed and put into commercial application, and in this transformation, wind energy will play a key role with other non-fossil energy sources. The development and utilization of wind energy is a systematic project, which needs to be solved from the aspects of policy, technology and management. At present, China is in the stage of transferring from “large wind power country” to “strong wind power country”, opportunities and challenges coexist, and the advantages of China's socialist system could be fully used, which can concentrate power to do big things and make contribution in the process of realizing global energy transformation.

  15. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Building upon on the smoothness of the response of an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM to changes of four adjustable parameters, Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate the AGCM. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g., how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  16. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM around four adjustable parameters. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g. how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  17. Climate program plan. Volume 1 of 2. [For assessing interrelationships between energy and climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    As part of the United States Climate Program Plan developed by the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences, DOE is responsible for developing an understanding of and assessment capabilities for the effects of climate and climate fluctuations on man's generation of power, the effects of power generation and its various fuel processes and/or control technologies on climate, and development of blends of power generation and distribution modes that minimize adverse environmental and climatic effects. The DOE Climate Program Plan focuses on these three major roles in basic and applied research. The purpose of this document is to present background information relevant to these roles, to identify the perceived and potential effects of energy technologies on climate that now merit assessment, to define the need for research on the prediction of weather and climate variations and assessment of their effects on power production, and to outline research goals appropriate to the DOE mission. This report focuses on the need for assessing the cycles and budgets of the entire range of substances emitted in power production by the many technologies now in use. Emissions include but are not limited to /sup 85/Kr, particles, sulfur, and nitrogen oxides, waste heat, and hydrocarbons. To provide the basis for assessing the impacts of these emissions, this plan calls for specialized, mission-oriented research to improve understanding of processes that determine how these emissions are transported, transformed, and scavenged in the atmosphere, and of the natural processes that can be affectd by energy activities. This latter category includes potential modification of surface properties caused, for example, by large arrays of solar collectors, extensive biomass production, and wind power modification of the boundary layer. (JGB)

  18. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  19. Energy-saving strategies with personalized ventilation in cold climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shiavon, Stefano; Melikov, Arsen Krikor

    2009-01-01

    In this study the influence of the personalized supply air temperature control strategy on energy consumption and the energy-saving potentials of a personalized ventilation system have been investigated by means of simulations with IDA-ICE software. GenOpt software was used to determine the optimal...... supply air temperature. The simulated office room was located in a cold climate. The results reveal that the supply air temperature control strategy has a marked influence on energy consumption. The energy consumption with personalized ventilation may increase substantially (in the range: 61......–268%) compared to mixing ventilation alone if energy-saving strategies are not applied. The results show that the best supply air temperature control strategy is to provide air constantly at 20 °C. The most effective way of saving energy with personalized ventilation is to extend the upper room operative...

  20. High-resolution climate modelling of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wessem, J.M.

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis we have used a high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2.3) to simulate the present-day climate (1979-2014) of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. We have evaluated the model results with several observations, such as in situ surface energy balance (SEB) observati

  1. Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricko, Oliver; Parkinson, Simon C.; Johnson, Nils; Strubegger, Manfred; van Vliet, Michelle TH; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-03-01

    Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.

  2. Global Climate Models of the Terrestrial Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget, F.; Lebonnois, S.

    On the basis of the global climate models (GCMs) originally developed for Earth, several teams around the world have been able to develop GCMs for the atmospheres of the other terrestrial bodies in our solar system: Venus, Mars, Titan, Triton, and Pluto. In spite of the apparent complexity of climate systems and meteorology, GCMs are based on a limited number of equations. In practice, relatively complete climate simulators can be developed by combining a few components such as a dynamical core, a radiative transfer solver, a parameterization of turbulence and convection, a thermal ground model, and a volatile phase change code, possibly completed by a few specific schemes. It can be shown that many of these GCM components are "universal" so that we can envisage building realistic climate models for any kind of terrestrial planets and atmospheres that we can imagine. Such a tool is useful for conducting scientific investigations on the possible climates of terrestrial extrasolar planets, or to study past environments in the solar system. The ambition behind the development of GCMs is high: The ultimate goal is to build numerical simulators based only on universal physical or chemical equations, yet able to reproduce or predict all the available observations on a given planet, without any ad hoc forcing. In other words, we aim to virtually create in our computers planets that "behave" exactly like the actual planets themselves. In reality, of course, nature is always more complex than expected, but we learn a lot in the process. In this chapter we detail some lessons learned in the solar system: In many cases, GCMs work. They have been able to simulate many aspects of planetary climates without difficulty. In some cases, however, problems have been encountered, sometimes simply because a key process has been forgotten in the model or is not yet correctly parameterized, but also because sometimes the climate regime seems to be result of a subtle balance between

  3. A Net Energy-based Analysis for a Climate-constrained Sustainable Energy Transition

    CERN Document Server

    Sgouridis, Sgouris; Csala, Denes

    2015-01-01

    The transition from a fossil-based energy economy to one based on renewable energy is driven by the double challenge of climate change and resource depletion. Building a renewable energy infrastructure requires an upfront energy investment that subtracts from the net energy available to society. This investment is determined by the need to transition to renewable energy fast enough to stave off the worst consequences of climate change and, at the same time, maintain a sufficient net energy flow to sustain the world's economy and population. We show that a feasible transition pathway requires that the rate of investment in renewable energy should accelerate approximately by an order of magnitude if we are to stay within the range of IPCC recommendations.

  4. Energy Savings of Low-E Storm Windows and Panels across US Climate Zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Culp, Thomas D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cort, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report builds off of previous modeling work related to low-e storm windows used to create a "Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows." This work updates similar studies using new fuel costs and examining the separate contributions of reduced air leakage and reduced coefficients of overall heat transfer and solar heat gain. In this report we examine the energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates, excluding the impact from infiltration reductions, which tend to vary using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN model calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by climate zone.

  5. Climate-smart technologies. Integrating renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leal Filho, Walter; Mannke, Franziska; Schulte, Veronika [Hamburg Univ. of Applied Sciences (Germany). Faculty of Life Sciences; Mohee, Romeela; Surroop, Dinesh (eds.) [Mauritius Univ., Reduit (Mauritius). Chemical and Environmental Engineering Dept.

    2013-11-01

    Explores the links between climate change and technologies. Relates to the links between renewable energy and climate change. Documents and promotes a collection of experiences from island nations. Has a strong international focus and value to developing countries. The book addresses the perceived need for a publication with looks at both, climate smart technologies and the integration of renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses. Based on a set of papers submitted as part of the fifth on-line climate conference (CLIMATE 2012) and a major conference on renewable energy on island States held in Mauritius in 2012, the book provides a wealth of information on climate change strategies and the role of smart technologies. The book has been produced in the context of the project ''Small Developing Island Renewable Energy Knowledge and Technology Transfer Network'' (DIREKT), funded by the ACP Science and Technology Programme, an EU programme for cooperation between the European Union and the ACP region.

  6. Building an advanced climate model: Program plan for the CHAMMP (Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics, and Model Physics) Climate Modeling Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-12-01

    The issue of global warming and related climatic changes from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has received prominent attention during the past few years. The Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics, and Model Physics (CHAMMP) Climate Modeling Program is designed to contribute directly to this rapid improvement. The goal of the CHAMMP Climate Modeling Program is to develop, verify, and apply a new generation of climate models within a coordinated framework that incorporates the best available scientific and numerical approaches to represent physical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes, that fully utilizes the hardware and software capabilities of new computer architectures, that probes the limits of climate predictability, and finally that can be used to address the challenging problem of understanding the greenhouse climate issue through the ability of the models to simulate time-dependent climatic changes over extended times and with regional resolution.

  7. PROPOSALS REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY FOR 2030

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA POPESCU

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate policies are fundamental for the future of our planet, while a truly European energy policy is a key factor for our competitiveness.It`s mandatory a new European energy policy which must accept the real energetic motivations regarding sustainability and greenhouse gas, security of supply and dependence on imports, competitiveness and efficient functioning of the internal energy market. An ambitious target of 40% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases for 2030 is the cornerstone of the most efficient in terms of cost on our path towards a low-carbon dioxide. And at least 27% target for renewable energy is an important signal to investors to provide stability, boost green jobs and support security of supply. Using renewable energy sources (wind, solar and photovoltaic, biomass and biofuels, geothermal and heat pumps undeniably contributes to limiting climate change. In addition, it helps to secure energy supplies and to create and increase employment in Europe, thanks to increasing local energy production and consumption.

  8. An assessment of climate change impacts on micro-hydropower energy recovery in water supply networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Jennifer; Patil, Sopan; McNabola, Aonghus; Gallagher, John; Coughlan, Paul; Harris, Ian; Packwood, Andrew; Williams, Prysor

    2015-04-01

    treatment works. This analysis is achieved through development of an empirical model utilising historical climatic data in conjunction with low, medium and high emission IPCC climate scenarios using the HADCM3 global climate model across a baseline condition and two further time steps. Results highlight projected alterations in flow rates together with the potential for increases in the frequency and persistence of drought/flooding events and the resulting impacts on future energy recovery. Critical climate change limits are also identified indicating the tolerable ranges within which hydropower recovery is financially viable, thus allowing for more informed decision making across potential sites.

  9. Spatial scale dependency of the modelled climatic response to deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    Longobardi, P.; Montenegro, A.; H. Beltrami; M. Eby

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. T...

  10. Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the necessity to transform global energy supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zwaan, Bob van der [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policies Studies Department, P.O. Box 37154, 1030 AD Amsterdam (Netherlands) and Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, 79 J.F.K. Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)]. E-mail: vanderzwaan@ecn.nl; Gerlagh, Reyer [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-11-15

    This paper analyses the policy relevance of the dominant uncertainty in our current scientific understanding of the terrestrial climate system, and provides further evidence for the need to radically transform-this century-our global energy supply infrastructure, given the global average temperature increase as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. We investigate the effect on required CO{sub 2} emission reduction efforts, both in terms of how much and when, of our present uncertain knowledge of the climate sensitivity to a doubling of the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. We use a top-down integrated assessment model in which there are two competing energy sources, fossil and non-fossil. Technological change is represented endogenously through learning curves, and modest but non-zero demand exists for the relatively expensive carbon-free energy resource. We find that during the forthcoming two decades the relative roles of carbon-free energy and energy savings are similar, while in the long run the importance of carbon-free energy deployment becomes predominant, independent of the assumed climate sensitivity, but dependent on some of our model's characteristic features. We also find that, in the absence of the realisation of drastic energy efficiencies or a massive deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies, non-carbon energy resources should provide 10-30% and 80-90% of total energy supply, in 2020 and 2100, respectively. Finally, we observe that in our model the timing of the emissions reduction effort is nearly linear and close to independent of either the climate sensitivity or policy target.

  11. Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imbrie, J; Imbrie, J Z

    1980-02-29

    According to the astronomical theory of climate, variations in the earth's orbit are the fundamental cause of the succession of Pleistocene ice ages. This article summarizes how the theory has evolved since the pioneer studies of James Croll and Milutin Milankovitch, reviews recent evidence that supports the theory, and argues that a major opportunity is at hand to investigate the physical mechanisms by which the climate system responds to orbital forcing. After a survey of the kinds of models that have been applied to this problem, a strategy is suggested for building simple, physically motivated models, and a time-dependent model is developed that simulates the history of planetary glaciation for the past 500,000 years. Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years.

  12. Climate and energy. My theories; Klima und Energie. Meine Theorien

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahrami, B.

    2007-07-01

    The main cause of global warming is the increased intensity of solar radiation. So a drastic reduction of carbon dioxide by human actions will not finish global warming. The CO2 concentration should be reduced by gentechnological methods e.g. a forced photosynthesis. Energy plays a role not only on earth but in the whole universe, so the conversion of energy into matter and back is written depthly and clearly by the aid of relativity theory and gravitation effects. What mankind will ever pollute the univers is able to balance and correct it. (GL) [German] Sind wir Menschen wirklich schuld an einer sich anbahnenden Erderwaermung und Klimakatastrophe? Kann sie nur durch die Begrenzung der CO2-Emission wirksam bekaempft werden ? Gibt es effektivere Methoden? Was ist die forcierte Photosynthese? Was ist eine Bindung des CO2 ? Was sind rueckstandhaltige und rueckstandsfreie Energien? Durch dieses spannende Buch werden nicht nur diese Fragen ausfuehrlich beantwortet, sondern auch viele damit zusammenhaengende Probleme geloest. Lebensnahe Beispiele und ein einfacher Text machen die Thematik auch fuer das breite Publikum verstaendlich und zugaenglich. Im Rahmen einiger Theorien des Autors, der schon viele bahnbrechende Theorien entwickelt und mehrere Buecher veroeffentlicht hat, erfahren die Leser viele faszinierende Neuheiten. Kann in absehbarer Zeit unser gesamter Energiebedarf durch erneuerbare Energien gedeckt werden? Sind wir auch in Zukunft auf Atomenergie angewiesen? verfuegt die Energie ueber bisher ungeahnte, unvorstellbar grosse und vielfaeltige Faehigkeiten? Ist sie steuerbar? Welche Rolle spielt sie ueberhaupt? Wenn Sie bisher vergeblich nach Antworten auf solche und aehnliche Fragen gesucht haben, werden Sie in diesem Buch ebenfalls fuendig. Es werden nicht nur die neuesten Erkenntnisse der Wissenschaft wiedergegeben, sondern insbesondere innovative, schoepferische und kreative Akzente gesetzt und viel Neuland erschlossen.

  13. Partitioning energy flux using climate record and remote sensing data across the Yukon River Basin, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, S.; Dahal, D.; Singh, R. K.; Young, C. J.; Tieszen, L. L.; Liu, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Yukon River Basin (YRB) in Alaska is located in high latitudes and underlain by intermittent permafrost, but it is experiencing rapid warming and creating feedback to the climate system. Fire, ecological succession, and climate are interactively affecting YRB ecosystem functions (e.g., primary production, microbial activities, and greenhouse gas emissions) where solar energy transfer processes are critical. Energy flux at some specific locations was investigated; however, variations over landscape level are not well understood. To fully understand the ecosystem dynamics associated with disturbance and climate change, it is important to divide the landscape net radiation (Rn) into three components: latent energy required for evapotranspiration (LE), soil heat flux conducted into the ground (G), and sensible heat flux convected to the air (H). MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products (NDVI, surface temperature, albedo, and emissivity) and hourly weather measurements from 2002-2004 were collected. We developed an energy balance partitioning model that considers the impacts of terrain, vegetation, and climate. A spatial analysis tool was also developed for satellite-based energy balance computation based on the algorithm of "Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC)." We computed time series intra- and inter-annual products of LE, G, and H. We have been validating the products using flux tower measurements. Landscape-level products of Rn, LE, G, and H allow us to analyze the spatio-temporal variation of energy flux in the land-atmosphere system. Initial results show that i) landscape heterogeneity in terms of vegetation, elevation, and climate has great effect on the pattern of solar energy partitioning, ii) fire disturbance significantly affects energy flux partitioning. Key words: energy flux, evapotranspiration, flux tower, METRIC, MODIS

  14. Advance in Application of Regional Climate Models in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Wei; YAN Minhua; CHEN Panqin; XU Helan

    2008-01-01

    Regional climate models have become the powerful tools for simulating regional climate and its changeprocess and have been widely used in China. Using regional climate models, some research results have been obtainedon the following aspects: 1) the numerical simulation of East Asian monsoon climate, including exceptional monsoonprecipitation, summer precipitation distribution, East Asian circulation, multi-year climate average condition, summerrain belt and so on; 2) the simulation of arid climate of the western China, including thermal effect of the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau, the plateau precipitation in the Qilian Mountains; and the impacts of greenhouse effects (CO2 dou-bling) upon climate in the western China; and 3) the simulation of the climate effect of underlying surface changes, in-cluding the effect of soil on climate formation, the influence of terrain on precipitation, the effect of regional soil deg-radation on regional climate, the effect of various underlying surfaces on regional climate, the effect of land-sea con-trast on the climate formulation, the influence of snow cover over the plateau regions on the regional climate, the effectof vegetation changes on the regional climate, etc. In the process of application of regional climate models, the prefer-ences of the models are improved so that better simulation results are gotten. At last, some suggestions are made aboutthe application of regional climate models in regional climate research in the future.

  15. Climate Change Impact on Photovoltaic Energy Output: The Case of Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioanna S. Panagea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Solar power is the third major renewable energy, constituting an increasingly important component of global future—low carbon—energy portfolio. Accurate climate information is essential for the conditions of solar energy production, maximization, and stable regulation and planning. Climate change impacts on energy output projections are thus of crucial importance. In this study the effect of projected changes in irradiance and temperature on the performance of photovoltaic systems in Greece is examined. Climate projections were obtained from 5 regional climate models (RCMs under the A1B emissions scenario, for two future periods. The RCM data present systematic errors against observed values, resulting in the need of bias adjustment. The projected change in photovoltaic energy output was then estimated, considering changes in temperature and insolation. The spatiotemporal analysis indicates significant increase in mean annual temperature (up to 3.5°C and mean total radiation (up to 5 W/m2 by 2100. The performance of photovoltaic systems exhibits a negative linear dependence on the projected temperature increase which is outweighed by the expected increase of total radiation resulting in an up to 4% increase in energy output.

  16. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations. The traditional approach to climate model evaluation, which compares a single parameter at a time, identifies symptomatic model biases and errors but fails to diagnose the model problems. The model diagnosis process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. To address these challenges, we are developing a parallel, distributed web-service system that enables the physics-based multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks (i.e., Flask, Gunicorn, and Tornado). The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation and (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, and (4) the calculation of difference between two variables. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use

  17. A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

    2014-01-01

    We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

  18. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  19. Sustainable development, energy and climate. Exploring synergies and tradeoffs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halsnaes, K.; Garg, A. (eds.)

    2006-11-15

    This report summarizes the results of the Development, Energy and Climate Project that has been managed by the UNEP Risoe Centre on behalf of UNEP DTIE. The project is a partnership between the UNEP Risoe Centre and centers of excellence in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Senegal and South Africa. The focus of this report is on the energy sector mitigation assessments that have been carried out in the countries. In addition to this work, the project has also included adaptation focused case studies that explore climate change impacts on the energy sector and infrastructure. The report includes a short introduction to the project and its approach and summaries of the six country studies. This is followed by an assessment of cross country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. Furthermore, energy access and affordability for households are considered as major social aspects of energy provision. The country study results that are included in this report are a short summary of some of the main findings and do not provide all details of the work that has been undertaken. Some of the countries in particular those with fast growing economies and energy sectors such as Brazil, China, India and South Africa have conducted general scenario analysis of the energy sector and explored some policies in more depth, while the country studies for Bangladesh and Senegal where the energy sector is less developed have focused more on specific issues related to energy access and the electricity sector. (au)

  20. National Energy Outlook Modelling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Volkers, C.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

    2013-12-15

    For over 20 years, the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) has been developing the National Energy Outlook Modelling System (NEOMS) for Energy projections and policy evaluations. NEOMS enables 12 energy models of ECN to exchange data and produce consistent and detailed results.

  1. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-01

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots thro...

  2. Validating Savings Claims of Cold Climate Zero Energy Ready Homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, J. [Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States); Puttagunta, S. [Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States)

    2015-06-05

    This study was intended to validate actual performance of three ZERHs in the Northeast to energy models created in REM/Rate v14.5 (one of the certified software programs used to generate a HERS Index) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Building Energy Optimization (BEopt™) v2.3 E+ (a more sophisticated hourly energy simulation software). This report details the validation methods used to analyze energy consumption at each home.

  3. Climate Modeling Computing Needs Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petraska, K. E.; McCabe, J. D.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses early findings of an assessment of computing needs for NASA science, engineering and flight communities. The purpose of this assessment is to document a comprehensive set of computing needs that will allow us to better evaluate whether our computing assets are adequately structured to meet evolving demand. The early results are interesting, already pointing out improvements we can make today to get more out of the computing capacity we have, as well as potential game changing innovations for the future in how we apply information technology to science computing. Our objective is to learn how to leverage our resources in the best way possible to do more science for less money. Our approach in this assessment is threefold: Development of use case studies for science workflows; Creating a taxonomy and structure for describing science computing requirements; and characterizing agency computing, analysis, and visualization resources. As projects evolve, science data sets increase in a number of ways: in size, scope, timelines, complexity, and fidelity. Generating, processing, moving, and analyzing these data sets places distinct and discernable requirements on underlying computing, analysis, storage, and visualization systems. The initial focus group for this assessment is the Earth Science modeling community within NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD). As the assessment evolves, this focus will expand to other science communities across the agency. We will discuss our use cases, our framework for requirements and our characterizations, as well as our interview process, what we learned and how we plan to improve our materials after using them in the first round of interviews in the Earth Science Modeling community. We will describe our plans for how to expand this assessment, first into the Earth Science data analysis and remote sensing communities, and then throughout the full community of science, engineering and flight at NASA.

  4. Low energy architecture for a severe US climate: Design and evaluation of a hybrid ventilation strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lomas, K.J.; Cook, M.J.; Dusan Fiala [De Montfort University, Leicester (United Kingdom). Institute of Energy and Sustainable Development

    2007-01-15

    Natural ventilation, relying on openings in the facade, is applicable to a limited range of climates, sites and building types. Advanced naturally ventilated buildings, such as those using stacks to encourage buoyancy driven airflow, or hybrid buildings, which integrate both natural and mechanical systems, can extend the range of buildings and climate within which natural ventilation might be used. This paper describes the design of a new library building for a college, located near Chicago, which uses a new hybrid ventilation concept despite the severe continental climate. The likely operation of the building is illustrated using dynamic thermal modelling and computational fluid dynamics analyses. The new building challenges ingrained preconceptions about building designs for severe climates and exposes barriers to low energy buildings posed by national standards and guidelines. (author)

  5. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

  6. Evaluating Programs That Promote Climate and Energy Education-Meeting Teacher Needs for Online Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynds, S. E.; Buhr, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) Pathway, is a National Science Digital Library (NSDL) Pathways project that was begun in 2010. The main goal of CLEAN is to generate a reviewed collection of educational resources that are aligned with the Essential Principles of Climate Science (EPCS). Another goal of the project is to support a community that will assist students, teachers, and citizens in climate literacy. A complementary program begun in 2010 is the ICEE (Inspiring Climate Education Excellence) program, which is developing online modules and courses designed around the climate literacy principles for use by teachers and other interested citizens. In these projects, we learn about teacher needs through a variety of evaluation mechanisms. The programs use evaluation to assist in the process of providing easy access to high quality climate and energy learning resources that meet classroom requirements. The internal evaluation of the CLEAN program is multidimensional. At the CLEAN resource review camps, teachers and scientists work together in small groups to assess the value of online resources for use in the classroom. The review camps are evaluated using observation and feedback surveys; the resulting evaluation reports provide information to managers to fine-tune future camps. In this way, a model for effective climate resource development meetings has been refined. Evaluation methods used in ICEE and CLEAN include teacher needs assessment surveys, teacher feedback at professional development opportunities, scientist feedback at resource review workshops, and regular analysis of online usage of resources, forums, and education modules. This paper will review the most successful strategies for evaluating the effectiveness of online climate and energy education resources and their use by educators and the general public.

  7. The Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) Model for Energy Service Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houck, Jason; Rickerson, Wilson

    2009-01-01

    Climate change, energy price spikes, and concerns about energy security have reignited interest in state and local efforts to promote end-use energy efficiency, customer-sited renewable energy, and energy conservation. Government agencies and utilities have historically designed and administered such demand-side measures, but innovative…

  8. Energy System Modeling with REopt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpkins, Travis; Anderson, Kate; Cutler, Dylan; Olis, Dan; Elgqvist, Emma; DiOrio, Nick; Walker, Andy

    2016-07-15

    This poster details how REopt - NREL's software modeling platform for energy systems integration and optimization - can help to model energy systems. Some benefits of modeling with REopt include optimizing behind the meter storage for cost and resiliency, optimizing lab testing, optimizing dispatch of utility scale storage, and quantifying renewable energy impact on outage survivability.

  9. Integrated food–energy systems for climate-smart agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdanski Anne

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Food production needs to increase by 70%, mostly through yield increases, to feed the world in 2050. Increases in productivity achieved in the past are attributed in part to the significant use of fossil fuels. Energy use in agriculture is therefore also expected to rise in the future, further contributing to greenhouse emissions. At the same time, more than two-fifths of the world’s population still depends on unsustainably harvested wood energy for cooking and heating. Both types of energy use have detrimental impacts on the climate and natural resources. Continuing on this path is not an option as it will put additional pressure on the already stressed natural resource base and local livelihoods, while climate change is further reducing the resilience of agro-ecosystems and smallholder farmers. Ecosystem approaches that combine both food and energy production, such as agroforestry or integrated crop–livestock–biogas systems, could substantially mitigate these risks while providing both food and energy to rural and urban populations. Information and understanding on how to change course through the implementation of the practices outlined in this paper are urgently needed. Yet the scientific basis of such integrated systems, which is essential to inform decision-makers and to secure policy support, is still relatively scarce. The author therefore argues that new assessment methodologies based on a systems-oriented analysis are needed for analyzing these complex, multidisciplinary and large-scale phenomena.

  10. Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future Test Bed and Data Infrastructure Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Van Dam, Kerstin Kleese [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Shipman, G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-05-04

    The collaborative Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) project started in July 2011 with the goal of accelerating the development of climate model components (i.e., atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and land surface) and enhancing their predictive capabilities while incorporating uncertainty quantification (UQ). This effort required accessing and converting observational data sets into specialized model testing and verification data sets and building a model development test bed, where model components and sub-models can be rapidly evaluated. CSSEF’s prototype test bed demonstrated, how an integrated testbed could eliminate tedious activities associated with model development and evaluation, by providing the capability to constantly compare model output—where scientists store, acquire, reformat, regrid, and analyze data sets one-by-one—to observational measurements in a controlled test bed.

  11. LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

    2011-01-01

    This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

  12. Drifting snow climate of the Greenland ice sheet: a study with a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Angelen, J.H.; van Meijgaard, E.; Déry, S.J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the drifting snow climate of the Greenland ice sheet, using output from a high-resolution ( 11 km) regional climate model. Because reliable direct observations of drifting snow do not exist, we evaluate the modeled near-surface climate instead, using automatic weather station (AW

  13. Climate for Collaboration: Analysis of US and EU Lessons and Opportunities in Energy and Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vita, A.; de Connick, H.; McLaren, J.; Cochran, J.

    2009-11-01

    A deepening of cooperation between the United States and the European Union requires mutual trust, and understanding of current policies, challenges and successes. Through providing such understanding among policymakers, industry and other stakeholders in both economies, opportunities for transatlantic cooperation on climate change and energy policy emerge. This paper sets out by discussing the environmental, legislative, and economic contexts of the EU and US as related to climate. This context is essential to understanding how cap-and-trade, renewable energy and sustainable transportation policies have taken shape in the EU and the US, as described in Chapter 3.1. For each of these policies, a barrier analysis and discussion is provided. Chapter 4 builds off this improved understanding to listobservations and possible lessons learned. The paper concludes with recommendations on topics where EU and US interests align, and where further cooperation could prove beneficial.

  14. From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing

  15. Load-balancing algorithms for climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foster, I.T.; Toonen, B.R.

    1994-06-01

    Implementations of climate models on scalable parallel computer systems can suffer from load imbalances due to temporal and spatial variations in the amount of computation required for physical parameterizations such as solar radiation and convective adjustment. We have developed specialized techniques for correcting such imbalances. These techniques are incorporated in a general-purpose, programmable load-balancing library that allows the mapping of computation to processors to be specified as a series of maps generated by a programmer-supplied load-balancing module. The communication required to move from one map to another is performed automatically by the library, without programmer intervention. In this paper, we de scribe the load-balancing problem and the techniques that we have developed to solve it. We also describe specific load-balancing algorithms that we have developed for PCCM2, a scalable parallel implementation of the community Climate Model, and present experimental results that demonstrate the effectiveness of these algorithms on parallel computers.

  16. Load-balancing algorithms for climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, I. T.; Toonen, B. R.

    Implementations of climate models on scalable parallel computer systems can suffer from load imbalances due to temporal and spatial variations in the amount of computation required for physical parameterizations such as solar radiation and convective adjustment. We have developed specialized techniques for correcting such imbalances. These techniques are incorporated in a general-purpose, programmable load-balancing library that allows the mapping of computation to processors to be specified as a series of maps generated by a programmer-supplied load-balancing module. The communication required to move from one map to another is performed automatically by the library, without programmer intervention. In this paper, we describe the load-balancing problem and the techniques that we have developed to solve it. We also describe specific load-balancing algorithms that we have developed for PCCM2, a scalable parallel implementation of the community climate model, and present experimental results that demonstrate the effectiveness of these algorithms on parallel computers.

  17. Climate Modeling with a Linux Cluster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renold, M.; Beyerle, U.; Raible, C. C.; Knutti, R.; Stocker, T. F.; Craig, T.

    2004-08-01

    Until recently, computationally intensive calculations in many scientific disciplines have been limited to institutions which have access to supercomputing centers. Today, the computing power of PC processors permits the assembly of inexpensive PC clusters that nearly approach the power of supercomputers. Moreover, the combination of inexpensive network cards and Open Source software provides an easy linking of standard computer equipment to enlarge such clusters. Universities and other institutions have taken this opportunity and built their own mini-supercomputers on site. Computing power is a particular issue for the climate modeling and impacts community. The purpose of this article is to make available a Linux cluster version of the Community Climate System Model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR; http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/csm).

  18. Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Neil R. [The Open University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Milton Keynes (United Kingdom); Cameron, David [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Rougier, Jonathan [University of Bristol, Department of Mathematics, Bristol (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwater-forcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters. (orig.)

  19. Integrating solar energy and climate research into science education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Alan K.; Hamilton, James; Ligon, Sam; Mahar, Ann Marie

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes multi-year records of solar flux and climate data from two solar power sites in Vermont. We show the inter-annual differences of temperature, wind, panel solar flux, electrical power production, and cloud cover. Power production has a linear relation to a dimensionless measure of the transmission of sunlight through the cloud field. The difference between panel and air temperatures reaches 24°C with high solar flux and low wind speed. High panel temperatures that occur in summer with low wind speeds and clear skies can reduce power production by as much as 13%. The intercomparison of two sites 63 km apart shows that while temperature is highly correlated on daily (R2=0.98) and hourly (R2=0.94) timescales, the correlation of panel solar flux drops markedly from daily (R2=0.86) to hourly (R2=0.63) timescales. Minimum temperatures change little with cloud cover, but the diurnal temperature range shows a nearly linear increase with falling cloud cover to 16°C under nearly clear skies, similar to results from the Canadian Prairies. The availability of these new solar and climate datasets allows local student groups, a Rutland High School team here, to explore the coupled relationships between climate, clouds, and renewable power production. As our society makes major changes in our energy infrastructure in response to climate change, it is important that we accelerate the technical education of high school students using real-world data.

  20. Envelope as Climate Negotiator: Evaluating adaptive building envelope's capacity to moderate indoor climate and energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, James

    Through manipulation of adaptable opportunities available within a given environment, individuals become active participants in managing personal comfort requirements, by exercising control over their comfort without the assistance of mechanical heating and cooling systems. Similarly, continuous manipulation of a building skin's form, insulation, porosity, and transmissivity qualities exerts control over the energy exchanged between indoor and outdoor environments. This research uses four adaptive response variables in a modified software algorithm to explore an adaptive building skin's potential in reacting to environmental stimuli with the purpose of minimizing energy use without sacrificing occupant comfort. Results illustrate that significant energy savings can be realized with adaptive envelopes over static building envelopes even under extreme summer and winter climate conditions; that the magnitude of these savings are dependent on climate and orientation; and that occupant thermal comfort can be improved consistently over comfort levels achieved by optimized static building envelopes. The resulting adaptive envelope's unique climate-specific behavior could inform designers in creating an intelligent kinetic aesthetic that helps facilitate adaptability and resiliency in architecture.

  1. Energies: shortage coming to climate's aid?; Energies: une penurie au secours du climat?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolas, Adolphe [Montpellier Univ. (France)

    2011-09-08

    Since the industrial revolution, energy has been the driving force of the world economic growth. While our energy consumption is increasing day after day, this book tells us that shortage will be reached sooner than announced by some economists, politicians and oil companies. According to many petroleum geologists and independent experts, the oil production peaks would be already reached and the one for coal will be reached between 2030 and 2050. Shortage would also strike several mineral resources as well (like copper). The book tries to foresee what would be the shortage consequences for our societies. From the energy side, the challenge to take up is to save energy and to develop renewable energy sources. From the environment side, the exhaustion of fossil fuels represents a chance to slow down the ambient temperature rise to less than 2 deg. C by 2100. (J.S.)

  2. World Energy Outlook Special Report 2013: Redrawing the Energy Climate Map (Executive Summary)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    Governments have decided collectively that the world needs to limit the average global temperature increase to no more than 2 °C and international negotiations are engaged to that end. Yet any resulting agreement will not emerge before 2015 and new legal obligations will not begin before 2020. Meanwhile, despite many countries taking new actions, the world is drifting further and further from the track it needs to follow. The energy sector is the single largest source of climate-changing greenhouse-gas emissions and limiting these is an essential focus of action. The World Energy Outlook has published detailed analysis of the energy contribution to climate change for many years. But, amid major international economic preoccupations, there are worrying signs that the issue of climate change has slipped down the policy agenda. This Special Report seeks to bring it right back on top by showing that the dilemma can be tackled at no net economic cost.

  3. World Energy Outlook Special Report 2013: Redrawing the Energy Climate Map

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    Governments have decided collectively that the world needs to limit the average global temperature increase to no more than 2°C and international negotiations are engaged to that end. Yet any resulting agreement will not emerge before 2015 and new legal obligations will not begin before 2020. Meanwhile, despite many countries taking new actions, the world is drifting further and further from the track it needs to follow. The energy sector is the single largest source of climate-changing greenhouse-gas emissions and limiting these is an essential focus of action. The World Energy Outlook has published detailed analysis of the energy contribution to climate change for many years. But, amid major international economic preoccupations, there are worrying signs that the issue of climate change has slipped down the policy agenda. This Special Report seeks to bring it right back on top by showing that the dilemma can be tackled at no net economic cost.

  4. Interlocal collaboration on energy efficiency, sustainability and climate change issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ssu-Hsien

    Interlocal energy collaboration builds upon network structures among local policy actors dealing with energy, climate change and sustainability issues. Collaboration efforts overcome institutional collective action (ICA) dilemmas, and cope with the problems spanning jurisdictional boundaries, externalities, and free-rider problems. Interlocal energy collaboration emerges as the agreements in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, pollution control, land use, purchasing, retrofits, transportation, and so forth. Cities work collaboratively through contractual mechanisms (i.e. formal/informal agreements) and collective mechanisms (i.e. regional partnerships or membership organizations) on a variety of energy issues. What factors facilitate interlocal energy collaboration? To what extent is collaboration through interlocal contractual mechanisms different from collective mechanisms? This dissertation tries to answer these questions by examining: city goal priority on energy related issues as well as other ICA explanatory factors. Research data are drawn mainly from the 2010 national survey "Implementation of energy efficiency and sustainability program" supported by National Science Foundation and the IBM Endowment for the Business of Government. The research results show that city emphasis on common pool resource, scale economies and externality issues significantly affect individual selection of tools for energy collaboration. When expected transaction costs are extremely high or low, the contractual mechanism of informal agreement is more likely to be selected to preserve most local autonomy and flexibility; otherwise, written and formal tools for collaboration are preferred to impose constraints on individual behavior and reduce the risks of defection.

  5. Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program.

  6. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concent

  7. Design challenges for a climate adaptive multi-functional lightweight prefab panel for energy-efficient retrofitting of residential building based on one-room model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkmans, T.J.A.; Donkervoort, D.R.; Phaff, J.C.; Valcke, S.L.A.

    2014-01-01

    Current solutions for highly energy-efficient retrofitting rely on thick static insulation, airtight construction and extensive ventilation systems to become independent from variable outdoor conditions. A building skin that adapts to the outdoor conditions to regulate the indoor conditions could pr

  8. Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-31

    BIM Building Information Modeling BPA Building Performance Analysis BTU British Thermal Unit CBECS Commercial Building ...geometry, orientation, weather, and materials, generates 3D Building Information Models ( BIM ) guided by satellite views of building footprints and...Rapid Energy Modeling (REM) workflows that employed building information modeling ( BIM ) approaches and conceptual energy analysis.

  9. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  10. Energy policy responses to the climate change challenge: The consistency of European CHP, renewables and energy efficiency policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-09-01

    This report is Volume 14 of individual reports of the Shared Analysis Project prepared for the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy. The three major objectives of the project were: to design a common framework of energy analysis that aimed to involve all Member States and the experts of industrial research groups (the shared approach to energy analysis); To analyse generic EU-wide issues important for energy policy and for future energy demand and production, putting particular emphasis on world energy market trends, strategic energy policy responses to the Kyoto process, and evaluation of response strategies to increasing energy import dependence and to climate change activities; to carry out quantitative analyses of energy trends and scenarios as an input for discussion. The present volume considers three main issues concerning energy policy responses to the climate change challenge: the penetration of CHP and renewables according to official objectives, focusing on infrastructure and institutions rather than technology; the consistency of promotion of CHP, renewables and energy savings at the same time; consumers' choices and priorities in a liberalised market. The volume describes examples of policies in several Member States for these technologies with emphasis on CHP for both large-scale and small-scale district heating systems. The penetration of CHP technologies is analysed quantitatively using a traditional optimisation model approach for stylised regions with heat markets suitable for CHP and facing a competitive European market for electricity. The Joint Final Report of the project, titled 'Economic Foundations for Energy Policy' is published as a Special Issue of Energy in Europe, December 1999. All reports are available on the Internet, www.shared-analysis.fhg.de/ The project started in January 1998, involving about 100 months of scientific labour. The project consortium consisted of nine member institutes co-ordinated by

  11. Solar energy estimation using REST2 model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rizwan, Majid Jamil, D. P. Kothari

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The network of solar energy measuring stations is relatively rare through out the world. In India, only IMD (India Meteorological Department Pune provides data for quite few stations, which is considered as the base data for research purposes. However, hourly data of measured energy is not available, even for those stations where measurement has already been done. Due to lack of hourly measured data, the estimation of solar energy at the earth’s surface is required. In the proposed study, hourly solar energy is estimated at four important Indian stations namely New Delhi, Mumbai, Pune and Jaipur keeping in mind their different climatic conditions. For this study, REST2 (Reference Evaluation of Solar Transmittance, 2 bands, a high performance parametric model for the estimation of solar energy is used. REST2 derivation uses the two-band scheme as used in the CPCR2 (Code for Physical Computation of Radiation, 2 bands but CPCR2 does not include NO2 absorption, which is an important parameter for estimating solar energy. In this study, using ground measurements during 1986-2000 as reference, a MATLAB program is written to evaluate the performance of REST2 model at four proposed stations. The solar energy at four stations throughout the year is estimated and compared with CPCR2. The results obtained from REST2 model show the good agreement against the measured data on horizontal surface. The study reveals that REST2 models performs better and evaluate the best results as compared to the other existing models under cloudless sky for Indian climatic conditions.

  12. Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)); Pichs Madruga, R. (Centro de Investigaciones de la Economia Mundial (CIEM), Hanoi (Viet Nam)); Sokona, Y. (African Climate Policy Centre, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)) (and others)

    2012-07-01

    Climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems. Renewable energy sources have a large potential to displace emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and thereby to mitigate climate change. If implemented properly, renewable energy sources can contribute to social and economic development, to energy access, to a secure and sustainable energy supply, and to a reduction of negative impacts of energy provision on the environment and human health. This Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) impartially assesses the scientific literature on the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, academic researchers and civil society. It covers six renewable energy sources - bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. The authors also compare the levelized cost of energy from renewable energy sources to recent non-renewable energy costs. (Author)

  13. Weakened atmospheric energy transport feedback in cold glacial climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Cvijanovic

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The response of atmospheric energy transport during Northern Hemisphere cooling and warming from present day (PD and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM conditions is investigated using sea surface temperature anomalies derived from a freshwater hosing experiment. The present day climate shows enhanced sensitivity of the atmospheric energy transport compared to that of the LGM suggesting an ability of the PD atmosphere to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen temperature anomalies that may arise from changes in the oceanic transport. The increased PD sensitivity relative to that of the LGM is due mainly to a stronger dry static energy transport response which, in turn, is driven chiefly by larger changes in the transient eddy heat flux. In comparison, changes in latent heat transport play a minor role in the overall transport sensitivity.

  14. Data assimilation experiments with MPIESM climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belyaev Konstantin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Further development of data assimilation technique and its application in numerical experiments with state-of-the art Max Plank Institute Earth System model have been carried out. In particularly, the stability problem of assimilation is posed and discussed In the experiments the sea surface height data from archive Archiving, Validating and Interpolating Satellite Ocean have been used. All computations have been realized on cluster system of German Climate Computing Center. The results of numerical experiments with and without assimilation were recorded and analyzed. A special attention has been focused on the Arctic zone. It is shown that there is a good coincidence of model tendencies and independent data.

  15. The Development in modeling Tibetan Plateau Land/Climate Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yongkang; Liu, Ye; li, qian; Maheswor Shrestha, Maheswor; Ma, Hsi-Yen; Cox, Peter; Sun, shufen; Koike, Toshio

    2015-04-01

    Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in influencing the continental and planetary scale climate, including East Asian and South Asian monsoon, circulation and precipitation over West Pacific and Indian Oceans. The numerical study has identified TP as the area with strongest land/atmosphere interactions over the midlatitude land. The land degradation there has also affected the monsoon precipitation in TP along the monsoon pathway. The water cycle there affects water sources for major Asian river systems, which include the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yellow, and Yangtze Rivers. Despite the importance of TP land process in the climate system, the TP land surface processes are poorly modeled due to lack of data available for model validation. To better understand, simulate, and project the role of Tibetan Plateau land surface processes, better parameterization of the Tibetan Land surface processes have been developed and evaluated. The recently available field measurement there and satellite observation have greatly helped this development. This paper presents these new developments and preliminary results using the newly developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, frozen soil model, and glacier model. In recent CMIP5 simulation, the CMIP5 models with dynamic vegetation model show poor performance in simulating the TP vegetation and climate. To better simulate the TP vegetation condition and its interaction with climate, we have developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID), based on water, carbon, and energy balance. The simulated vegetation variables are updates, driven by carbon assimilation, allocation, and accumulation, as well as competition between plant functional types. The model has been validated with the station data, including those measured over the TP

  16. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  17. Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

    2012-11-01

    In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

  18. Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L.N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jöhnk, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere–land surface–lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simu

  19. Hortisim: a model for greenhouse crops and greenhouse climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijzen, H.; Heuvelink, E.; Challa, H.; Dayan, E.; Marcelis, L.F.M.; Cohen, S.; Fuchs, M.

    1998-01-01

    A combined model for crop production and climate in greenhouses, HORTISIM, was developed. Existing models, developed by several research groups, of various aspects of crop growth and greenhouse climate have been integrated. HORTISIM contains 7 submodels (Weather, Greenhouse Climate, Soil, Crop, Gree

  20. Energy, Transportation, Air Quality, Climate Change, Health Nexus: Sustainable Energy is Good for Our Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larry E. Erickson

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has the potential to improve air quality and human health by encouraging the electrification of transportation and a transition from coal to sustainable energy. There will be human health benefits from reducing combustion emissions in all parts of the world. Solar powered charging infrastructure for electric vehicles adds renewable energy to generate electricity, shaded parking, and a needed charging infrastructure for electric vehicles that will reduce range anxiety. The costs of wind power, solar panels, and batteries are falling because of technological progress, magnitude of commercial activity, production experience, and competition associated with new trillion dollar markets. These energy and transportation transitions can have a very positive impact on health. The energy, transportation, air quality, climate change, health nexus may benefit from additional progress in developing solar powered charging infrastructure.

  1. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  2. Climate, Energy, Water, Land and the Spill-Over Effect (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, V. C.; Backus, G.; Bier, A.; Brune, N.; Brown, T. J.

    2013-12-01

    Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate stress than the developed world due to poorly managed natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. When fragile states are stressed these vulnerabilities are often manifest in a 'domino effect' of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship-followed by desperate emigration, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. The impact is not limited to a single nation or region but 'spills over' to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Toward this problem we are developing a model of climate aggravated spill-over that couples social, economic, infrastructure and resource dynamics and constraints. The model integrates system dynamics and agent based simulation to identify regions vulnerable to the spill-over effect and to explore potential mitigating and/or adaptive measures. At the heart of the analysis is human migration which is modeled by combining aspects of the Protection Motivation Theory and Theory of Planned Behavior within the mechanistic framework of Fick's first law of diffusion. Agents in the current model are distinguished at the country level by country of residence, country of origin, gender, education/skill, age, and rural/urban roots. The model of the environment in which the agents operate endogenously simulates economy, labor, population, disease, violence, energy, water, and food sectors. Various climate scenarios distinguished by differences in temperature, precipitation and extreme events, are simulated over a 50 year time horizon. Results allow exploration of the nexus between climate change, resource provisioning, especially energy, water and land, and the resultant adaptive response of the impacted population. Current modeling efforts are focused on the developing nations of West Africa. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly

  3. Interpolation of climate variables and temperature modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Lohar, Debasish; Pal, Babita

    2012-01-01

    Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and modeling are becoming powerful tools in agricultural research and natural resource management. This study proposes an empirical methodology for modeling and mapping of the monthly and annual air temperature using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The study area is Gangetic West Bengal and its neighborhood in the eastern India, where a number of weather systems occur throughout the year. Gangetic West Bengal is a region of strong heterogeneous surface with several weather disturbances. This paper also examines statistical approaches for interpolating climatic data over large regions, providing different interpolation techniques for climate variables' use in agricultural research. Three interpolation approaches, like inverse distance weighted averaging, thin-plate smoothing splines, and co-kriging are evaluated for 4° × 4° area, covering the eastern part of India. The land use/land cover, soil texture, and digital elevation model are used as the independent variables for temperature modeling. Multiple regression analysis with standard method is used to add dependent variables into regression equation. Prediction of mean temperature for monsoon season is better than winter season. Finally standard deviation errors are evaluated after comparing the predicted temperature and observed temperature of the area. For better improvement, distance from the coastline and seasonal wind pattern are stressed to be included as independent variables.

  4. Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

  5. Downscaling GISS ModelE boreal summer climate over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

    2016-12-01

    The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June-September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2° latitude by 2.5° longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44°. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

  6. The international coordination of climate model validation and intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    1995-12-31

    Climate modeling, whereby basic physical laws are used to integrate the physics and dynamics of climate into a consistent system, plays a key role in climate research and is the medium through. Depending upon the portion(s) of the climate system being considered, climate models range from those concerned only with the equilibrium globally-averaged surface temperature to those depicting the 3-dimensional time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Here only the latter class of models are considered, which are commonly known as general circulation models (or GCMs). (author)

  7. Construction of a novel economy-climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHOU JieMing; DONG WenJie; YE DuZheng

    2007-01-01

    An attempt has been made to construct a novel economy-climate model by combining climate change research with agricultural economy research to evaluate the influence of global climate change on grain yields. The insertion of a climate change factor into the economic C-D (Cobb-Dauglas) production function model yields a novel evaluation model, which connects the climate change factor to the economic variation factor, and the performance and reasonableness of the novel evaluation model are also preliminarily simulated and verified.

  8. Inventory of state energy models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melcher, A.G.; Gist, R.L.; Underwood, R.G.; Weber, J.C.

    1980-03-31

    These models address a variety of purposes, such as supply or demand of energy or of certain types of energy, emergency management of energy, conservation in end uses of energy, and economic factors. Fifty-one models are briefly described as to: purpose; energy system; applications;status; validation; outputs by sector, energy type, economic and physical units, geographic area, and time frame; structure and modeling techniques; submodels; working assumptions; inputs; data sources; related models; costs; references; and contacts. Discussions in the report include: project purposes and methods of research, state energy modeling in general, model types and terminology, and Federal legislation to which state modeling is relevant. Also, a state-by-state listing of modeling efforts is provided and other model inventories are identified. The report includes a brief encylopedia of terms used in energy models. It is assumed that many readers of the report will not be experienced in the technical aspects of modeling. The project was accomplished by telephone conversations and document review by a team from the Colorado School of Mines Research Institute and the faculty of the Colorado School of Mines. A Technical Committee (listed in the report) provided advice during the course of the project.

  9. Towards Systematic Benchmarking of Climate Model Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleckler, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    The process by which climate models are evaluated has evolved substantially over the past decade, with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) serving as a centralizing activity for coordinating model experimentation and enabling research. Scientists with a broad spectrum of expertise have contributed to the CMIP model evaluation process, resulting in many hundreds of publications that have served as a key resource for the IPCC process. For several reasons, efforts are now underway to further systematize some aspects of the model evaluation process. First, some model evaluation can now be considered routine and should not require "re-inventing the wheel" or a journal publication simply to update results with newer models. Second, the benefit of CMIP research to model development has not been optimal because the publication of results generally takes several years and is usually not reproducible for benchmarking newer model versions. And third, there are now hundreds of model versions and many thousands of simulations, but there is no community-based mechanism for routinely monitoring model performance changes. An important change in the design of CMIP6 can help address these limitations. CMIP6 will include a small set standardized experiments as an ongoing exercise (CMIP "DECK": ongoing Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima), so that modeling groups can submit them at any time and not be overly constrained by deadlines. In this presentation, efforts to establish routine benchmarking of existing and future CMIP simulations will be described. To date, some benchmarking tools have been made available to all CMIP modeling groups to enable them to readily compare with CMIP5 simulations during the model development process. A natural extension of this effort is to make results from all CMIP simulations widely available, including the results from newer models as soon as the simulations become available for research. Making the results from routine

  10. Climate change, renewable energy and population impact on future energy demand for Burkina Faso build environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, B. I.

    This research addresses the dual challenge faced by Burkina Faso engineers to design sustainable low-energy cost public buildings and domestic dwellings while still providing the required thermal comfort under warmer temperature conditions caused by climate change. It was found base don climate change SRES scenario A2 that predicted mean temperature in Burkina Faso will increase by 2oC between 2010 and 2050. Therefore, in order to maintain a thermally comfortable 25oC inside public buildings, the projected annual energy consumption for cooling load will increase by 15%, 36% and 100% respectively for the period between 2020 to 2039, 2040 to 2059 and 2070 to 2089 when compared to the control case. It has also been found that a 1% increase in population growth will result in a 1.38% and 2.03% increase in carbon emission from primary energy consumption and future electricity consumption respectively. Furthermore, this research has investigated possible solutions for adaptation to the severe climate change and population growth impact on energy demand in Burkina Faso. Shading devices could potentially reduce the cooling load by up to 40%. Computer simulation programming of building energy consumption and a field study has shown that adobe houses have the potential of significantly reducing energy demand for cooling and offer a formidable method for climate change adaptation. Based on the Net Present Cost, hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and Diesel generator energy production configuration is the most cost effective local electricity supply system, for areas without electricity at present, with a payback time of 8 years when compared to diesel generator stand-alone configuration. It is therefore a viable solution to increase electricity access to the majority of the population.

  11. Updated cloud physics improve the modelled near surface climate of Antarctica of a regional atmospheric climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. van Wessem

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The physics package of the polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 has been updated from RACMO2.1 to RACMO2.3. The update constitutes, amongst others, the inclusion of a parameterization for cloud ice super-saturation, an improved turbulent and radiative flux scheme and a changed cloud scheme. In this study the effects of these changes on the modelled near-surface climate of Antarctica are presented. Significant biases remain, but overall RACMO2.3 better represents the near-surface climate in terms of the modelled surface energy balance, based on a comparison with > 750 months of data from nine automatic weather stations located in East Antarctica. Especially the representation of the sensible heat flux and net longwave radiative flux has improved with a decrease in biases of up to 40 %. These improvements are mainly caused by the inclusion of ice super-saturation, which has led to more moisture being transported onto the continent, resulting in more and optically thicker clouds and more downward longwave radiation. As a result, modelled surface temperatures have increased and the bias, when compared to 10 m snow temperatures from 64 ice core observations, has decreased from −2.3 K to −1.3 K. The weaker surface temperature inversion consequently improves the representation of the sensible heat flux, whereas wind speed remains unchanged.

  12. A new coupled ice sheet/climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Fyke

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI. The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet.

    A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  13. A new coupled ice sheet-climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Fyke

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model, that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI. The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet.

    A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  14. Mixing parameterizations in ocean climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshonkin, S. N.; Gusev, A. V.; Zalesny, V. B.; Byshev, V. I.

    2016-03-01

    Results of numerical experiments with an eddy-permitting ocean circulation model on the simulation of the climatic variability of the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean are analyzed. We compare the ocean simulation quality with using different subgrid mixing parameterizations. The circulation model is found to be sensitive to a mixing parametrization. The computation of viscosity and diffusivity coefficients by an original splitting algorithm of the evolution equations for turbulence characteristics is found to be as efficient as traditional Monin-Obukhov parameterizations. At the same time, however, the variability of ocean climate characteristics is simulated more adequately. The simulation of salinity fields in the entire study region improves most significantly. Turbulent processes have a large effect on the circulation in the long-term through changes in the density fields. The velocity fields in the Gulf Stream and in the entire North Atlantic Subpolar Cyclonic Gyre are reproduced more realistically. The surface level height in the Arctic Basin is simulated more faithfully, marking the Beaufort Gyre better. The use of the Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number improves the quality of ocean modeling.

  15. EU policy options for climate and energy beyond 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koelemeijer, R.; Ros, J.; Notenboom, J.; Boot, P. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Groenenberg, H.; Winkel, T. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-05-15

    In 2009, the EU climate and energy package with targets for 2020 (the so-called 20-20-20 targets) were formulated. For the period after 2020, however, there are no legally binding targets at the EU level, except for a decreasing ETS cap which will not be sufficient in light of the ambition for 2050. This leads to uncertainty for market players, as project lead times are long and high upfront investments need to deliver returns well beyond 2020. In its Green Paper on a 2030 framework for climate and energy policies, the European Commission recognised the need for clarity regarding the post-2020 policy framework. Currently under discussion is whether the approach for 2020 should be continued towards 2030 in the form of three more stringent targets or that other approaches would be more appropriate. Within this context, the Dutch Government asked PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Ecofys for advice. PBL and Ecofys have subsequently analysed possible options for an EU policy framework for 2030 that will steer towards a low-carbon economy by 2050 in a cost-effective way.

  16. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate predictions of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES, and investigates the predicted changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the Generalised Pareto Distribution. The models show that for much of Europe the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  17. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  18. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2016-10-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  19. Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian J Das

    Full Text Available Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1 drought stress, or (2 the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

  20. Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian J; Stephenson, Nathan L; Flint, Alan; Das, Tapash; van Mantgem, Phillip J

    2013-01-01

    Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation) forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

  1. Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2009-01-01

    How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this

  2. Integrated energy planning: Strategies to mitigate climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

    1997-07-01

    The framework convention on climate change, signed by more than 150 governments worldwide in June 1992, calls on parties to the convention undertaken inventories of national sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and to develop plans for responding to climate change. The energy sector is comprised of the major energy demand sectors (industry, residential and commercial, transport and agriculture), and the energy supply sector, which consists of resource extraction, conversion, and delivery of energy products. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions occur at various points in the sector, from resource extraction to end use application, and accordingly, options for mitigation exist at various points. In most countries, will be a major focus of GHG mitigation analysis. The primary focus of this paper is on the identification of strategies that can mitigate climate changes on the basis of integrated energy planing analysis. The overall approach follows a methodology developed by the U.S. Country Studies Program under the framework of the Convention's commitments. It involves the development of scenarios based on energy uses and evaluation of specific technologies that can satisfy demands for energy services. One can compare technologies based on their relative cost to achieve a unit of GHG reduction and other features of interest. This approach gives equal weight to both energy supply and energy demand options. A variety of screening criteria including indicators of cost-effectiveness as well as non-economic analysis concerns, can be used to identify and assess promising options, which can then be combined to create one or more scenarios. Mitigation scenarios are evaluated against the backdrop of a baseline scenario, which simulates assumed to take place in the absence of mitigation efforts. Mitigation scenarios can be designed to meet specific emission reduction targets or to simulate the effect of specific policy inventions. The paper ends with an application using a

  3. Objective information about energy models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, D.R. (Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States))

    1993-01-01

    This article describes the Energy Information Administration's program to develop objective information about its modeling systems without hindering model development and applications, and within budget and human resource constraints. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  4. ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE. NUCLEAR, PROS AND CONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BENEA Ciprian-Beniamin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available It’s needless to say that nuclear is a hot subject. It arouses public imagination, suspicion, and fear. It has always animated scientists’ minds and souls and after they discovered how to manipulate the atom, the public conscience has become aware of its dangers and its merits. Present paper aims to present why it is important to regard with optimism and trust the science of atoms, not without loosing our critical view concerning the risks inherently connected to it. Nuclear arms are a reality, but climate change is another. Mankind is facing both. It cannot ignore one of them without assuming greater risks in the future. In this context, nuclear can be regarded with hope and audacity. Its expansion, both in countries where it already is employed, and into newcomers (where it could be implemented, can bring benefits such as: reducing energy dependence on foreign interests placed under the umbrella of oil and gas producers, or transporters; rising energy security in a world where access to cheap and reliable energy would become more problematic; greater success in fighting climate changes and global warming through energy generated in a more environmentally friendly manner. Furthermore, over the energy aspect of peaceful nuclear energy, there is another economic and technological benefit: nuclear researches could be involved simultaneously in electricity generation, heat production, agricultural and industrial rising’s potential, water desalinization and providing in arid areas, and application in medical researches and treatment. But nuclear has its weak points: it is connected to military researches and programs, while offering the needed technical ground for UN Security Council permanent members to have and maintain prestige in international politics; it looms over mankind, as a menace which hunts our conscience after Hiroshima and Nagasaki… Its minuses have to do with international context, too: if we connect the highest level in

  5. Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenhard, Johannes; Winsberg, Eric

    In this paper, we explore the extent to which issues of simulation model validation take on novel characteristics when the models in question become particularly complex. Our central claim is that complex simulation models in general, and global models of climate in particular, face a form of confirmation holism. This holism, moreover, makes analytic understanding of complex models of climate either extremely difficult or even impossible. We argue that this supports a position we call convergence skepticism: the belief that the existence of a plurality of different models making a plurality of different forecasts of future climate is likely to be a persistent feature of global climate science.

  6. IEK-3 report 2011. Climate-relevant energy research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    IEK-3 is one of nine sub-institutes within the Institute of Energy and Climate Research at Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH. IEK-3 aims to conduct research of social, ecological and economic relevance and thus generate groundbreaking results on an international level. This quality of work is achieved through basic research in close coordination with technical development work in relevant scientific and technical fields of expertise. Special significance is attached here to international cooperations with partners from research and industry. By implementing research results in innovative products, procedures and processes in cooperation with industry, IEK-3 hopes to help bridge the gap between science and technology. Cooperation with universities, universities of applied sciences, training departments and training centers is designed to promote opportunities for further education and training. With a staff of approximately 100, IEK-3 concentrates on the basic topics of electrochemistry and process engineering for fuel cells. In an integrated approach, the four key areas worked on in the institute - direct methanol fuel cells, high-temperature polymer electrolyte fuel cells, solid oxide fuel cells and fuel processing systems - are accompanied by systems analysis and theoretical investigations, basic modeling and simulations, and by experimental and theoretical systems evaluations. The information generated in these areas is used to design and verify functional systems. In addition, particular attention is given to the development, configuration and application of special measuring techniques for the structural analysis of membrane electrode assemblies, for flow simulation and visualization, and for the characterization of stacks. The solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack pictured comprises 36 cells, each with an active cell area of 360 cm{sup 2}. The nominal power at a mean cell voltage of 800 mV is approximately 5.5 kW. The stack is operated on natural gas, which is

  7. Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Energy and Water Budgets in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Laura Suzanne

    According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, climate change will exacerbate current climate and non-climate stressors on agricultural systems in sub-Saharan Africa. This will adversely impact food security and the wellbeing of communities. Small-scale farmers grow more than 90 percent of the food produced in the region and many households depend on productive local growing conditions to support for their families. A better understanding of recent and near future climate constraints is important for identifying future food security risks and locally-appropriate adaptation strategies. This dissertation research examines impacts of weather and climate on vegetation productivity in geographically diverse areas of east Africa and the semi-arid Sahel. The focus of this research is how surface energy and water budgets respond to variations in rainfall and temperature. It asks the following questions: Where will warmer temperature pose a hazard to rainfed agriculture in the Sahel in the next 20 years? What environment and weather conditions led to above average surface temperature during the recent decade in east Africa? How have declines in rainfall since the 1980s impacted vegetation productivity and hydrology in Tanzania? The research incorporates a variety of earth observation data, including historical records from in situ, model-derived, and satellite-observed sources and projections from global climate models. A major contribution is the identification of specific areas, mainly in semi-arid climate zones, where increases in temperature and decreases to rainfall have large negative impacts on vegetation productivity. The research also presents new methods for evaluating land-atmosphere interactions in the context of hazards to vegetation.

  8. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  9. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  10. Nitrogen Controls on Climate Model Evapotranspiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Robert E.; Berry, Joseph A.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Collatz, G. James; Field, Christopher B.; Fung, Inez Y.; Goulden, Michael; Hoffmann, William A.; Jackson, Robert B.; Myneni, Ranga; Sellers, Piers J.; Shaikh, Muhammad

    2002-02-01

    Most evapotranspiration over land occurs through vegetation. The fraction of net radiation balanced by evapotranspiration depends on stomatal controls. Stomates transpire water for the leaf to assimilate carbon, depending on the canopy carbon demand, and on root uptake, if it is limiting. Canopy carbon demand in turn depends on the balancing between visible photon-driven and enzyme-driven steps in the leaf carbon physiology. The enzyme-driven component is here represented by a Rubisco-related nitrogen reservoir that interacts with plant-soil nitrogen cycling and other components of a climate model. Previous canopy carbon models included in GCMs have assumed either fixed leaf nitrogen, that is, prescribed photosynthetic capacities, or an optimization between leaf nitrogen and light levels so that in either case stomatal conductance varied only with light levels and temperature.A nitrogen model is coupled to a previously derived but here modified carbon model and includes, besides the enzyme reservoir, additional plant stores for leaf structure and roots. It also includes organic and mineral reservoirs in the soil; the latter are generated, exchanged, and lost by biological fixation, deposition and fertilization, mineralization, nitrification, root uptake, denitrification, and leaching. The root nutrient uptake model is a novel and simple, but rigorous, treatment of soil transport and root physiological uptake. The other soil components are largely derived from previously published parameterizations and global budget constraints.The feasibility of applying the derived biogeochemical cycling model to climate model calculations of evapotranspiration is demonstrated through its incorporation in the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme land model and a 17-yr Atmospheric Model Inter comparison Project II integration with the NCAR CCM3 GCM. The derived global budgets show land net primary production (NPP), fine root carbon, and various aspects of the nitrogen cycling are

  11. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  12. Climate model boundary conditions for four Cretaceous time slices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sewall, J.O.; Wal, R.S.W. van de; Zwan, C.J. van der; Oosterhout, C. van; Dijkstra, H.A.; Scotese, C.R.

    2007-01-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for investigating the characteristics and dynamics of past climates. Understanding of past climates contributes significantly to our overall understanding of Earth’s climate system. One of the most time consuming, and often daunting, tasks facing th

  13. Atmosphere-Cryosphere Coupled Model for Regional Climate Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki-Hong Min

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There have been significant advances in our understanding of the climate system, but two major problems still exist in modeling atmospheric response during cold seasons: (a lack of detailed physical description of snow and frozen soil in the land-surface schemes and (b insufficient understanding of regional climate response from the cryosphere. A multilayer snow land-surface model based on the conservations of heat and water substance inside the soil and snow is coupled to an atmospheric RCM, to investigate the effect of snow, snowmelt, and soil frost on the atmosphere during cold seasons. The coupled RCM shows much improvement in moisture and temperature simulation for March-April of 1997 compared to simple parameterizations used in GCMs. The importance of such processes in RCM simulation is more pronounced in mid-to-high latitudes during the transition period (winter–spring affected by changes in surface energy and the hydrological cycle. The effect of including cryosphere physics through snow-albedo feedback mechanism changes the meridional temperature gradients and in turn changes the location of weather systems passing over the region. The implications from our study suggest that, to reduce the uncertainties and better assess the impacts of climate change, RCM simulations should include the detailed snow and frozen soil processes.

  14. Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Hui; LIN Er-da; Tim Wheeler; Andrew Challinor; JIANG Shuai

    2013-01-01

    Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10%for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.

  15. Spatial scale dependency of the modelled climatic response to deforestation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Longobardi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scale land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we determine effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is registered over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. For all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower surface air temperature, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation, cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to generate a previously not reported net drawdown of CO2 from the atmosphere. Our results support previous indications of the importance of changes in cloud cover in the modelled temperature response to deforestation at low latitudes. They also show the complex interaction between soil carbon dynamics and climate and the role this plays on the climatic response to land cover change.

  16. Climate modelling: IPCC gazes into the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raper, Sarah

    2012-04-01

    In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will report on the next set of future greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, offering a rational alternative pathway for avoiding dangerous climate change.

  17. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  18. Space-time dependence between energy sources and climate related energy production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjorn; Borga, Marco; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Tøfte, Lena; Warland, Geir

    2014-05-01

    The European Renewable Energy Directive adopted in 2009 focuses on achieving a 20% share of renewable energy in the EU overall energy mix by 2020. A major part of renewable energy production is related to climate, called "climate related energy" (CRE) production. CRE production systems (wind, solar, and hydropower) are characterized by a large degree of intermittency and variability on both short and long time scales due to the natural variability of climate variables. The main strategies to handle the variability of CRE production include energy-storage, -transport, -diversity and -information (smart grids). The three first strategies aim to smooth out the intermittency and variability of CRE production in time and space whereas the last strategy aims to provide a more optimal interaction between energy production and demand, i.e. to smooth out the residual load (the difference between demand and production). In order to increase the CRE share in the electricity system, it is essential to understand the space-time co-variability between the weather variables and CRE production under both current and future climates. This study presents a review of the literature that searches to tackle these problems. It reveals that the majority of studies deals with either a single CRE source or with the combination of two CREs, mostly wind and solar. This may be due to the fact that the most advanced countries in terms of wind equipment have also very little hydropower potential (Denmark, Ireland or UK, for instance). Hydropower is characterized by both a large storage capacity and flexibility in electricity production, and has therefore a large potential for both balancing and storing energy from wind- and solar-power. Several studies look at how to better connect regions with large share of hydropower (e.g., Scandinavia and the Alps) to regions with high shares of wind- and solar-power (e.g., green battery North-Sea net). Considering time scales, various studies consider wind

  19. Hybrid Surface Mesh Adaptation for Climate Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ahmed Khamayseh; Valmor de Almeida; Glen Hansen

    2008-01-01

    Solution-driven mesh adaptation is becoming quite popular for spatial error control in the numerical simulation of complex computational physics applications, such as climate modeling. Typically, spatial adaptation is achieved by element subdivision (h adaptation) with a primary goal of resolving the local length scales of interest. A second, lesspopular method of spatial adaptivity is called "mesh motion" (r adaptation); the smooth repositioning of mesh node points aimed at resizing existing elements to capture the local length scales. This paper proposes an adaptation method based on a combination of both element subdivision and node point repositioning (rh adaptation). By combining these two methods using the notion of a mobility function, the proposed approach seeks to increase the flexibility and extensibility of mesh motion algorithms while providing a somewhat smoother transition between refined regions than is pro-duced by element subdivision alone. Further, in an attempt to support the requirements of a very general class of climate simulation applications, the proposed method is de-signed to accommodate unstructured, polygonal mesh topologies in addition to the most popular mesh types.

  20. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III; Oglesby, R.J.

    1991-10-01

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. As one index of the magnitude of past climates change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide doubling. Simulating the climate changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the NCAR CCMO (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0), after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our comparisons have shown both some of the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The research so far has shown the feasibility of our methods for comparing paleoclimatic data and model results. Our research has also shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1991, we have continued our studies and this Progress Report documents the results to date. During this year, we have completed new modeling experiments, compiled new data sets, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling. 37 refs.

  1. Energy demand modeling for Uzbekistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bobur Khodjaev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to energy demand forecasting in Uzbekistan. Studies show that in spite of the abundant reserves of hydrocarbons, low energy efficiency can have an adverse impact on energy security in Uzbekistan in the future. Oil and gas are the main primary energy source and they ensure energy security of Uzbekistan. Energy demand forecasting is essential in order to develop an effective energy policy. Such forecast can be useful to plan oil and gas production volumes, to identify priorities for the industrial modernization and to create favorable conditions for sustainable economic development in the future. Author proposes model based on translog function for developing medium-and long-term development programs in energy sector and the modernization and technological re-equipment of industry.

  2. Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Marine Sulfur Biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deal, Clara [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States); Jin, Meibing [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States)

    2013-06-30

    Global climate models (GCMs) have not effectively considered how responses of arctic marine ecosystems to a warming climate will influence the global climate system. A key response of arctic marine ecosystems that may substantially influence energy exchange in the Arctic is a change in dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions, because DMS emissions influence cloud albedo. This response is closely tied to sea ice through its impacts on marine ecosystem carbon and sulfur cycling, and the ice-albedo feedback implicated in accelerated arctic warming. To reduce the uncertainty in predictions from coupled climate simulations, important model components of the climate system, such as feedbacks between arctic marine biogeochemistry and climate, need to be reasonably and realistically modeled. This research first involved model development to improve the representation of marine sulfur biogeochemistry simulations to understand/diagnose the control of sea-ice-related processes on the variability of DMS dynamics. This study will help build GCM predictions that quantify the relative current and possible future influences of arctic marine ecosystems on the global climate system. Our overall research objective was to improve arctic marine biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, now CESM). Working closely with the Climate Ocean Sea Ice Model (COSIM) team at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), we added 1 sea-ice algae and arctic DMS production and related biogeochemistry to the global Parallel Ocean Program model (POP) coupled to the LANL sea ice model (CICE). Both CICE and POP are core components of CESM. Our specific research objectives were: 1) Develop a state-of-the-art ice-ocean DMS model for application in climate models, using observations to constrain the most crucial parameters; 2) Improve the global marine sulfur model used in CESM by including DMS biogeochemistry in the Arctic; and 3) Assess how sea ice influences DMS dynamics in the arctic marine

  3. Measure the climate, model the city

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boufidou, E.; Commandeur, T.J.F.; Nedkov, S.B.; Zlatanova, S.

    2011-01-01

    Modern large cities are characterized by a high building concentration, little aeration and lack of green spaces. Such characteristics create an urban climate which is different from the climate outside of cities. An example of an urban climate effect is the so-called Urban Heat Island: cities tend

  4. Comparing the effects of climate and impact model uncertainty on climate impacts estimates for grain maize

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzkämper, Annelie; Honti, Mark; Fuhrer, Jürg

    2015-04-01

    Crop models are commonly applied to estimate impacts of projected climate change and to anticipate suitable adaptation measures. Thereby, uncertainties from global climate models, regional climate models, and impacts models cascade down to impact estimates. It is essential to quantify and understand uncertainties in impact assessments in order to provide informed guidance for decision making in adaptation planning. A question that has hardly been investigated in this context is how sensitive climate impact estimates are to the choice of the impact model approach. In a case study for Switzerland we compare results of three different crop modelling approaches to assess the relevance of impact model choice in relation to other uncertainty sources. The three approaches include an expert-based, a statistical and a process-based model. With each approach impact model parameter uncertainty and climate model uncertainty (originating from climate model chain and downscaling approach) are accounted for. ANOVA-based uncertainty partitioning is performed to quantify the relative importance of different uncertainty sources. Results suggest that uncertainty in estimated yield changes originating from the choice of the crop modelling approach can be greater than uncertainty from climate model chains. The uncertainty originating from crop model parameterization is small in comparison. While estimates of yield changes are highly uncertain, the directions of estimated changes in climatic limitations are largely consistent. This leads us to the conclusion that by focusing on estimated changes in climate limitations, more meaningful information can be provided to support decision making in adaptation planning - especially in cases where yield changes are highly uncertain.

  5. New Methods for Gas Hydrate Energy and Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppel, C. D.; Pohlman, J.; Waite, W. F.; Hunt, A. G.; Stern, L. A.; Casso, M.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past few years, the USGS Gas Hydrates Project has focused on advancements designed to enhance both energy resource and climate-hydrate interaction studies. On the energy side, the USGS now manages the Pressure Core Characterization Tools (PCCTs), which includes the Instrumented Pressure Testing Chamber (IPTC) that we have long maintained. These tools, originally built at Georgia Tech, are being used to analyze hydrate-bearing sediments recovered in pressure cores during gas hydrate drilling programs (e.g., Nankai 2012; India 2015). The USGS is now modifying the PCCTs for use on high-hydrate-saturation and sand-rich sediments and hopes to catalyze third-party tool development (e.g., visualization). The IPTC is also being used for experiments on sediments hosting synthetic methane hydrate, and our scanning electron microscope has recently been enhanced with a new cryo-stage for imaging hydrates. To support climate-hydrate interaction studies, the USGS has been re-assessing the amount of methane hydrate in permafrost-associated settings at high northern latitudes and examined the links between methane carbon emissions and gas hydrate dissociation. One approach relies on the noble gas signature of methane emissions. Hydrate dissociation uniquely releases noble gases partitioned by molecular weight, providing a potential fingerprint for hydrate-sourced methane emissions. In addition, we have linked a DOC analyzer with an IRMS at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, allowing rapid and precise measurement of DOC and DIC concentrations and carbon isotopic signatures. The USGS has also refined methods to measure real-time sea-air flux of methane and CO2 using cavity ring-down spectroscopy measurements coupled with other data. Acquiring ~8000 km of data on the Western Arctic, US Atlantic, and Svalbard margins, we have tested the Arctic methane catastrophe hypothesis and the link between seafloor methane emissions and sea-air methane flux.

  6. Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change-Progress and Challenges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases,(2) use of downscaling techniques (both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods)for "downscaling" the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and (3) use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales.Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.

  7. An analysis of residential energy consumption in a temperate climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, Y.Y.; Vincent, W.

    1987-06-01

    Electrical energy consumption data have been recorded for several hundred submetered residential structures in Middle Tennessee. All houses were constructed with a common energy package.'' Specifically, daily cooling usage data have been collected for 130 houses for the 1985 and 1986 cooling seasons, and monthly heating usage data for 186 houses have been recorded by occupant participation over a seven-year period. Cooling data have been analyzed using an SPSSx multiple regression analysis and results are compared to several cooling models. Heating, base, and total energy usage are also analyzed and regression correlation coefficients are determined as a function of several house parameters.

  8. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    H. Fleisher, David; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States...

  9. Potato model uncertainty across common datasets and varying climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) ...

  10. Energy modeling towards low carbon development of Beijing in 2030

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Guangling; Chen, Sha; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2017-01-01

    scenario 2030, (ii) BAU (business as usual) scenario 2030 and (iii) RES (renewable energies) scenario 2030. The results shows that the share of renewables can increase to 100% of electricity and heat production in the RE scenario. The primary fuel consumption is reduced to 155.9 TWh, which is 72 % of fuel......Beijing, as the capacity capital of China, is under the pressure of climate change and pollution. Nonrenewable energy generation and consumption is one of the most important sources of CO2 emissions, which cause climate changes. This paper presents a study on the energy system modeling towards...

  11. Modeling climate change impact in hospitality sector, using building resources consumption signature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Armando; Bernardino, Mariana; Silva Santos, António; Pimpão Silva, Álvaro; Espírito Santo, Fátima

    2016-04-01

    Hotels are one of building types that consumes more energy and water per person and are vulnerable to climate change because in the occurrence of extreme events (heat waves, water stress) same failures could compromise the hotel services (comfort) and increase energy cost or compromise the landscape and amenities due to water use restrictions. Climate impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies require the knowledge about critical climatic variables and also the behaviour of building. To study the risk and vulnerability of buildings and hotels to climate change regarding resources consumption (energy and water), previous studies used building energy modelling simulation (BEMS) tools to study the variation in energy and water consumption. In general, the climate change impact in building is evaluated studying the energy and water demand of the building for future climate scenarios. But, hotels are complex buildings, quite different from each other and assumption done in simplified BEMS aren't calibrated and usually neglect some important hotel features leading to projected estimates that do not usually match hotel sector understanding and practice. Taking account all uncertainties, the use of building signature (statistical method) could be helpful to assess, in a more clear way, the impact of Climate Change in the hospitality sector and using a broad sample. Statistical analysis of the global energy consumption obtained from bills shows that the energy consumption may be predicted within 90% confidence interval only with the outdoor temperature. In this article a simplified methodology is presented and applied to identify the climate change impact in hospitality sector using the building energy and water signature. This methodology is applied to sixteen hotels (nine in Lisbon and seven in Algarve) with four and five stars rating. The results show that is expect an increase in water and electricity consumption (manly due to the increase in

  12. The MARKAL-MACRO model and the climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1996-07-01

    MARKAL-MACRO and its extensions is a model appropriate to study partial and general equilibrium in the energy markets and the implications of the carbon dioxide mitigation policy. The main advantage of MM is the explicit treatment of energy demand, supply and conversion technologies, including emission control and conservation options, within a general equilibrium framework. The famous gap between top-down and bottom-up models is resolved and the economic implications of environmental and supply policy constraints can be captured either in an aggregated (Macro) or in a sectorial (Micro) level. The multi-regional trade version of the model allows to study questions related to efficient and equitable allocation of cost and benefits associated with the climate change issue. Finally, the stochastic version of the model allows to assess policies related to uncertain and even catastrophic effects and define appropriate hedging strategies. The report is divided in three parts: - the first part gives an overview of the new model structure. It describes its macro economic part and explains its calibration, - the second part refers to the model applications for Switzerland when analyzing the economic implications of curbing CO{sub 2} emissions or policies related to the introduction of a carbon tax, including a hedging strategy, - the last part is organized in form of Appendices and gives a mathematical description and some potential extensions of the model. It describes also a sensitivity analysis done with MARKAL-MACRO in 1992. (author) figs., tabs., refs.

  13. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens;

    The complexity of precipitation processes makes it difficult for climate models to reliably simulate precipitation, particularly at sub-grid scales, where the important processes are associated with detailed land-atmosphere feedbacks like the vertical circulations driven by latent heat that affec...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies.......The complexity of precipitation processes makes it difficult for climate models to reliably simulate precipitation, particularly at sub-grid scales, where the important processes are associated with detailed land-atmosphere feedbacks like the vertical circulations driven by latent heat that affect......- and river flow as well as land surface-atmosphere fluxes of water (evapotranspiration) and energy - significantly reduces precipitation bias compared to the regional climate model alone. For a six year simulation period (2004 – 2010) covering a 2500 km2 catchment substantial improvements in the reproduction...

  14. Regions in Energy Market Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Short, W.

    2007-02-01

    This report explores the different options for spatial resolution of an energy market model--and the advantages and disadvantages of models with fine spatial resolution. It examines different options for capturing spatial variations, considers the tradeoffs between them, and presents a few examples from one particular model that has been run at different levels of spatial resolution.

  15. Regions in Energy Market Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-01-18

    This report explores the different options for spatial resolution of an energy market model and the advantages and disadvantages of models with fine spatial resolution. It examines different options for capturing spatial variations, considers the tradeoffs between them, and presents a few examples from one particular model that has been run at different levels of spatial resolution.

  16. Climate change from the perspective of the surface energy balance and global hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Ming, Y.; Schwarzkopf, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Major changes have occurred in the radiative drive of the surface since preindustrial times owing to both changes in the emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. These are to be contrasted with the drive at the top-of-the-atmosphere. Using global climate models and multiple observations of the surface fluxes from various platforms, we discuss how the energy balance has evolved with time and the manner in which this has affected the hydrologic cycle, including an account of the critical uncertainties. We make use of the simulations performed with global climate models and used in the IPCC assessments to diagnose the factors that are principally responsible for the changes, the contrasting atmospheric mechanisms exerted by greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the relative roles of the atmospheric constituents.

  17. Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Steffens

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of climate change impacts on the risk for pesticide leaching needs careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-west Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO-model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-west Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios could provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses and assessments of changes in pesticide leaching risks.

  18. Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Steffens

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses.

  19. The role of clouds in climate model bias and sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lacagnina, C.

    2014-01-01

    Clouds are prominent in the climate system, since they play a major role in the way energy and water are cycled through the atmosphere. One of the most relevant impacts of the clouds on the earth's climate is their interaction with the radiative fluxes. Changes in this interaction in response to an

  20. Modeling and Representing National Climate Assessment Information using Linked Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, J.; Tilmes, C.; Smith, A.; Zednik, S.; Fox, P. A.

    2012-12-01

    Every four years, earth scientists work together on a National Climate Assessment (NCA) report which integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of climate change and impacts on affected industries such as agriculture, natural environment, energy production and use, etc. Given the amount of information presented in each report, and the wide range of information sources and topics, it can be difficult for users to find and identify desired information. To ease the user effort of information discovery, well-structured metadata is needed that describes the report's key statements and conclusions and provide for traceable provenance of data sources used. We present an assessment ontology developed to describe terms, concepts and relations required for the NCA metadata. Wherever possible, the assessment ontology reuses terms from well-known ontologies such as Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Terminology (SWEET) ontology, Dublin Core (DC) vocabulary. We have generated sample National Climate Assessment metadata conforming to our assessment ontology and publicly exposed via a SPARQL-endpoint and website. We have also modeled provenance information for the NCA writing activities using the W3C recommendation-candidate PROV-O ontology. Using this provenance the user will be able to trace the sources of information used in the assessment and therefore make trust decisions. In the future, we are planning to implement a faceted browser over the metadata to enhance metadata traversal and information discovery.

  1. Assessment of Seasonal Energy Efficiency Strategies of a Double Skin Façade in a Monsoon Climate Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Choongwan Koo

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available As climate change and global warming have become two of the most significant environmental issues today, the double-skin façade (DSF is getting considerable attention as an energy-efficient passive design. This study is aimed at assessing the seasonal energy efficiency strategies of a DSF targeting library facilities in the climate region with hot summers and cold winters. Toward this end, this study was conducted in four steps: (i establishment of seasonal energy-efficient strategies; (ii application of seasonal energy-efficient strategies; (iii analysis of energy saving effect by season; and (iv life cycle cost and life cycle CO2 analyses for selecting an optimal DSF. Results show that a shaft box DSF energy model (EMS #2, which applied winter strategies, was optimal with an energy saving rate of 4.13%, while a multi-story DSF energy model (EMM #5, which applied summer strategies, was optimal with an energy saving rate of 12.67%. In terms of savings to investment ratio (SIR40 and breakeven point (BEP40, the multi-story DSF (3.20; 9 years was superior. The results of this study can be used for (i seasonal energy efficiency strategies of a DSF in East Asian monsoon climates, and (ii as a guideline for the application of a DSF both in existing and new buildings.

  2. Policy modeling for industrial energy use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

    2003-03-01

    The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

  3. Energy consumption and indoor climate in a residential building before and after comprehensive energy retrofitting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kirsten Engelund; Rose, Jørgen; Christen Mørck, Ove;

    2016-01-01

    Denmark is participating in IEA EBC Annex 56 “Cost Effective Energy and Carbon Emissions Optimization in Building Renovation”. This paper presents results from the housing complex Traneparken that was chosen as a Danish case for the project. It has undergone a comprehensive energy retrofit...... including new facades, new windows, additional insulation, mechanical ventilation with heat recovery and a photovoltaic installation on the roof. The measured energy consumption for heating and domestic hot water before and after renovation was 139.1 kWh/m2/year and 95.6 kWh/m2/year respectively......, and thereby the project has demonstrated that the renovation resulted in significant energy savings. Furthermore, a questionnaire survey was carried out focusing on the tenants’ overall satisfaction with the retrofitting process and the results of the retrofitting, including e.g. perceived indoor climate...

  4. Communication on climate, energy, natural gas and forests as a problem for energy planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czeskleba-Dupont, Rolf

    . Internationally, serious communication problems have likewise characterised energy politics, where the U.S. in the beginning of the 1990s chose not to realize proposals for an ecological transformation, but went to war in order to secure cheap oil supplies wihtout internalising the negative external costs which......Danish energy planning has since its inception in the end of the 1970s been politically controversial, which led to language problems of communicating on alternatives (natural gas, nuclear energy). But previously alternative scenarios were in the 1990s successfully transformed into law...... this strategy entails. This also meant that climate problems were underrated in their importance. Each time that progressive movements came into the fore with their messages, a new wave of environmentally sceptical publications followed. Alternatives in energy politics are, therefore, also misunderstood, so...

  5. Energy and climate. A vision of the future; Energie und Klima. Ein Blick in die Zukunft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brand, Hans; Hosemann, Gerhard; Riedle, Klaus (eds.)

    2013-07-01

    This book contains five lectures from the symposium of 8 November 2012. The topics and speakers were: 1. The energy turnaround in Germany - Chances and risks (DIETHARD MAGER); 2. The power supply from renewable sources and their constraints (GERHARD HEROLD); 3. What really contributes CO{sub 2} to global warming? (HERMANN HARDE); 4. Sun and greenhouse gas - causes of climate change (FRITZ VAHRENHOLT); 5. The hydrocarbon-cycle management - secure energy and resource supply from renewable energy sources (DOMINIK ROHRMUS). [German] Dieses Buch enthaelt fuenf Vortraege aus dem Symposium vom 8. November 2012. Die Themen und Referenten waren: 1. Die Energiewende in Deutschland - Chancen und Risiken (DIETHARD MAGER); 2. Die Stromversorgung aus regenerativen Quellen und ihre Zwaenge (GERHARD HEROLD); 3. Was traegt CO{sub 2} wirklich zur globalen Erwaermung bei? (HERMANN HARDE); 4. Sonne und Treibhausgase - Ursachen des Klimawandels (FRITZ VAHRENHOLT); 5. Die Kohlenwasserstoff-Kreislaufwirtschaft - sichere Energie- und Ressourcenversorgung mittels erneuerbarer Energien (DOMINIK ROHRMUS).

  6. Deficiencies in the simulation of the geographic distribution of climate types by global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xianliang; Yan, Xiaodong

    2016-05-01

    The performances of General Circulation Models (GCMs) when checked with conventional methods (i.e. correlation, bias, root-mean-square error) can only be evaluated for each variable individually. The geographic distribution of climate type in GCM simulations, which reflects the spatial attributes of models and is related closely to the terrestrial biosphere, has not yet been evaluated. Thus, whether the geographic distribution of climate types was well simulated by GCMs was evaluated in this study for nine GCMs. The results showed that large areas of climate zones classified by the GCMs were allocated incorrectly when compared to the basic climate zones established by observed data. The percentages of wrong areas covered approximately 30-50 % of the total land area for most models. In addition, the temporal shift in the distribution of climate zones according to the GCMs was found to be inaccurate. Not only were the locations of shifts poorly simulated, but also the areas of shift in climate zones. Overall, the geographic distribution of climate types was not simulated well by the GCMs, nor was the temporal shift in the distribution of climate zones. Thus, a new method on how to evaluate the simulated distribution of climate types for GCMs was provided in this study.

  7. An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Tongwen; WU Fanghua; LIU Yiming; ZHANG Fang; SHI Xueli; CHU Min; ZHANG Jie; FANG Yongjie; WANG Fang; LU Yixiong; LIU Xiangwen; SONG Lianchun; WEI Min; LIU Qianxia; ZHOU Wenyan; DONG Min; ZHAO Qigeng; JI Jinjun; Laurent LI; ZHOU Mingyu; LI Weiping; WANG Zaizhi; ZHANG Hua; XIN Xiaoge; ZHANG Yanwu; ZHANG Li; LI Jianglong

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125◦×2.8125◦) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125◦×1.125◦). Both versions are fully cou-pled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase fi ve (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate pro jections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and pro jections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses in-dicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

  8. Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

    2011-12-01

    Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

  9. Evaluation of climate extremes in the CMIP5 model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sillmann, J.; Kharin, S.; Zhang, X.; Zwiers, F. W.

    2011-12-01

    Climate extremes manifest an important aspect of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. To minimize human and financial losses caused by extreme events it is important to have reliable projections of their occurrence and intensity. State-of-the-art global climate models represented by the CMIP5 model ensemble are widely used as tools to simulate the present and project the future climate. Thus, it is crucial to get an understanding of how well climate extremes are simulated by these models in the present climate to be able to appraise their usefulness for future projections. We calculated a global set of well-defined indices for climate extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data with the available CMIP5 models and use the indices to present a first-order evaluation of the model performance in comparison with re-analysis and a gridded observational dataset. We also focus our analysis on regional aspects of the model performance. Some of the indices are based on threshold exceedance, i.e. percentage of days below the 10th or above the 90th percentile of the maximum and minimum temperature. These indices require special attention for model evaluation as by definition the threshold exceedance is approximately 10% for individual models, re-analysis, and observations. We introduce a novel method to evaluate the model performance particular for these indices.

  10. Integrated energy planning: Strategies to mitigate climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

    1997-07-01

    The framework convention on climate change, signed by more than 150 governments worldwide in June 1992, calls on parties to the convention undertaken inventories of national sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and to develop plans for responding to climate change. The energy sector is comprised of the major energy demand sectors (industry, residential and commercial, transport and agriculture), and the energy supply sector, which consists of resource extraction, conversion, and delivery of energy products. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions occur at various points in the sector, from resource extraction to end use application, and accordingly, options for mitigation exist at various points. In most countries, will be a major focus of GHG mitigation analysis. The primary focus of this paper is on the identification of strategies that can mitigate climate changes on the basis of integrated energy planing analysis. The overall approach follows a methodology developed by the U.S. Country Studies Program under the framework of the Convention's commitments. It involves the development of scenarios based on energy uses and evaluation of specific technologies that can satisfy demands for energy services. One can compare technologies based on their relative cost to achieve a unit of GHG reduction and other features of interest. This approach gives equal weight to both energy supply and energy demand options. A variety of screening criteria including indicators of cost-effectiveness as well as non-economic analysis concerns, can be used to identify and assess promising options, which can then be combined to create one or more scenarios. Mitigation scenarios are evaluated against the backdrop of a baseline scenario, which simulates assumed to take place in the absence of mitigation efforts. Mitigation scenarios can be designed to meet specific emission reduction targets or to simulate the effect of specific policy inventions. The paper ends with an application using a

  11. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  12. Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.

    2014-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

  13. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  14. Air conditioning versus heating: climate control is more energy demanding in Minneapolis than in Miami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivak, Michael

    2013-03-01

    Energy demand for climate control was analyzed for Miami (the warmest large metropolitan area in the US) and Minneapolis (the coldest large metropolitan area). The following relevant parameters were included in the analysis: (1) climatological deviations from the desired indoor temperature as expressed in heating and cooling degree days, (2) efficiencies of heating and cooling appliances, and (3) efficiencies of power-generating plants. The results indicate that climate control in Minneapolis is about 3.5 times as energy demanding as in Miami. This finding suggests that, in the US, living in cold climates is more energy demanding than living in hot climates.

  15. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.

    2014-10-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  16. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  17. Storm Water Management Model Climate Adjustment Tool (SWMM-CAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA’s newest tool, the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) – Climate Adjustment Tool (CAT) is meant to help municipal stormwater utilities better address potential climate change impacts affecting their operations. SWMM, first released in 1971, models hydrology and hydrauli...

  18. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fleisher, David H.; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto; Alva, Ashok; Asseng, Senthold; Barreda, Carolina; Bindi, Marco; Boote, Kenneth J.; Ferrise, Roberto; Franke, Angelinus C.; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M.; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Merante, Paolo; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E.; Parker, Phillip S.; Raes, Dirk; Raymundo, Rubi; Ruane, Alex C.; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wolf, Joost; Woli, Prem

    2016-01-01

    A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United

  19. Climate change and radical energy innovation: the policy issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Keith

    2009-01-15

    How can we sustain global economic performance while reducing and perhaps eliminating climate impacts? This dual objective ultimately requires the innovation of radically new low- or zero-emitting energy technologies. But what is involved in such innovation, and why and how should governments support it? What are the implications for innovation policy makers? The paper discusses the nature of the innovation challenge of climate change, develops a framework for analyzing modes of innovation, applies the framework to energy technologies and analyses policies for energy innovation. The overall argument is that we are 'locked in' to an unsustainable but large-scale hydrocarbon energy system. The innovation problem is to develop alternatives to this system as a whole. Yet despite widespread environmental innovation efforts and incentives, these are not yet addressing the innovation challenge on an adequate scale. The analytical framework sees technologies not as single techniques but as multi-faceted technological 'regimes'. Technological regimes comprise production systems and methods, scientific and engineering knowledge organization, infrastructures, and social patterns of technology use. We live not with individual energy technologies but with a complex hydrocarbon regime. Against this background we can identify three modes of innovation, with very different characteristics. They are; Incremental innovations - upgrades to existing technologies, producing innovation within existing technological regimes, such as increases in the capabilities and speeds of microprocessors; Disruptive innovations - new methods of performing existing technical functions, changing how things are done, but not changing the overall regime, such as the shift from film to digital imaging; Radical innovations - technological regime shifts, involving wholly new technical functions, new knowledge bases, and new organizational forms, such as the transition from steam power

  20. Climate Change Impact on Photovoltaic Energy Output: The Case of Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Panagea, Ioanna S.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Manolis G. Grillakis

    2014-01-01

    Solar power is the third major renewable energy, constituting an increasingly important component of global future—low carbon—energy portfolio. Accurate climate information is essential for the conditions of solar energy production, maximization, and stable regulation and planning. Climate change impacts on energy output projections are thus of crucial importance. In this study the effect of projected changes in irradiance and temperature on the performance of photovoltaic systems in Greece i...

  1. The evolution of Chinese policies and governance structures on environment, energy and climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Tsang; A. Kolk

    2010-01-01

    Although a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol has not materialised yet, the 2009 Copenhagen meeting underlined the importance of China in international debates on climate and energy. This is not only based on China’s current climate emissions, but also on its expected energy use and economic gro

  2. On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median 211%) caused by the hydrologic model's apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen-Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors' findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climatechange impacts on water. Copyright ?? 2011, Paper 15-001; 35,952 words, 3 Figures, 0 Animations, 1 Tables.

  3. Climate change and radical energy innovation: the policy issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Keith

    2009-01-15

    How can we sustain global economic performance while reducing and perhaps eliminating climate impacts? This dual objective ultimately requires the innovation of radically new low- or zero-emitting energy technologies. But what is involved in such innovation, and why and how should governments support it? What are the implications for innovation policy makers? The paper discusses the nature of the innovation challenge of climate change, develops a framework for analyzing modes of innovation, applies the framework to energy technologies and analyses policies for energy innovation. The overall argument is that we are 'locked in' to an unsustainable but large-scale hydrocarbon energy system. The innovation problem is to develop alternatives to this system as a whole. Yet despite widespread environmental innovation efforts and incentives, these are not yet addressing the innovation challenge on an adequate scale. The analytical framework sees technologies not as single techniques but as multi-faceted technological 'regimes'. Technological regimes comprise production systems and methods, scientific and engineering knowledge organization, infrastructures, and social patterns of technology use. We live not with individual energy technologies but with a complex hydrocarbon regime. Against this background we can identify three modes of innovation, with very different characteristics. They are; Incremental innovations - upgrades to existing technologies, producing innovation within existing technological regimes, such as increases in the capabilities and speeds of microprocessors; Disruptive innovations - new methods of performing existing technical functions, changing how things are done, but not changing the overall regime, such as the shift from film to digital imaging; Radical innovations - technological regime shifts, involving wholly new technical functions, new knowledge bases, and new organizational forms, such as the transition from steam power

  4. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  5. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

    2017-02-01

    The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

  6. Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huanghe Gu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available China is one of the countries vulnerable to adverse climate changes. The potential climate change hotspots in China throughout the 21st century are identified in this study by using a multimodel, multiscenario climate model ensemble that includes Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Both high (RCP8.5 and low (RCP4.5 greenhouse gas emission trajectories are tested, and both the mean and extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation are considered in identifying regional climate change hotspots. Tarim basin and Tibetan Plateau in West China are identified as persistent regional climate change hotspots in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The aggregate impacts of climate change increase throughout the 21st century and are more significant in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. Extreme hot event and mean temperature are two climate variables that greatly contribute to the hotspots calculation in all regions. The contribution of other climate variables exhibits a notable subregional variability. South China is identified as another hotspot based on the change of extreme dry event, especially in SON and DJF, which indicates that such event will frequently occur in the future. Our results can contribute to the designing of national and cross-national adaptation and mitigation policies.

  7. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian;

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  8. Incorporating vegetation feedbacks in regional climate modeling over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Wang, G.; Yu, M.; Ahmed, K. F.; Anyah, R. O.

    2015-12-01

    Despite major advancements in modeling of the climate system, incorporating vegetation dynamics into climate models is still at the initial stages making it an ongoing research topic. Only few of GCMs participating in CMIP5 simulations included the vegetation dynamics component. Consideration for vegetation dynamics is even less common in RCMs. In this study, RegCM4.3.4-CLM4-CN-DV, a regional climate model synchronously coupled with a land surface component that includes both Carbon-Nitrogen (CN) and Dynamic-Vegetation (DV) processes is used to simulate and project regional climate over West Africa. Due to its unique regional features, West Africa climate is known for being susceptible to land-atmosphere interactions, enhancing the importance of including vegetation dynamics in modeling climate over this region. In this study the model is integrated for two scenarios (present-day and future) using outputs from four GCMs participating in CMIP5 (MIROC, CESM, GFDL and CCSM4) as lateral boundary conditions, which form the basis of a multi-model ensemble. Results of model validation indicates that ensemble of all models outperforms each of individual models in simulating present-day temperature and precipitation. Therefore, the ensemble set is used to analyze the impact of including vegetation dynamics in the RCM on future projection of West Africa's climate. Results from the ensemble analysis will be presented, together with comparison among individual models.

  9. Solar Tyrol project: using climate data for energy production estimation. The good practice of Tyrol in conceptualizing climate services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petitta, Marcello; Wagner, Jochen; Costa, Armin; Monsorno, Roberto; Innerebner, Markus; Moser, David; Zebisch, Marc

    2014-05-01

    The scientific community in the last years is largely discussing the concept of "Climate services". Several definitions have been used, but it still remains a rather open concept. We used climate data from analysis and reanalysis to create a daily and hourly model of atmospheric turbidity in order to account the effect of the atmosphere on incoming solar radiation with the final aim of estimating electric production from Photovoltaic (PV) Modules in the Alps. Renewable Energy production in the Alpine Region is dominated by hydroelectricity, but the potential for photovoltaic energy production is gaining momentum. Especially the southern part of the Alps and inner Alpine regions offer good conditions for PV energy production. The combination of high irradiance values and cold air temperature in mountainous regions is well suited for solar cells. To enable more widespread currency of PV plants, PV has to become an important part in regional planning. To provide regional authorities and also private stakeholders with high quality PV energy yield climatology in the provinces of Bolzano/Bozen South Tirol (Italy) and Tyrol (Austria), the research project Solar Tyrol was inaugurated in 2012. Several methods are used to calculate very high resolution maps of solar radiation. Most of these approaches use climatological values. In this project we reconstructed the last 10 years of atmospheric turbidity using reanalysis and operational data in order to better estimate incoming solar radiation in the alpine region. Our method is divided into three steps: i) clear sky radiation: to estimate the atmospheric effect on solar radiation we calculated Linke Turbidity factor using aerosols optical depth (AOD), surface albedo, atmospheric pressure, and total water content from ECMWF and MACC analysis. ii) shadows: we calculated shadows of mountains and buildings using a 2 meter-resolution digital elevation model of the area and GIS module r.sun modified to fit our specific needs. iii

  10. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson-Sellers, A. [Climatic Impacts Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can`t yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.

  11. Climatic driven variability of surface water energy potential and implications for future hydroelectricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, A. L. E.; Lindstrom, G.

    2014-12-01

    An average year the production in Norway and Sweden is around 190 TWh and these two countries stand for about 70% of the hydropower energy stored in the available reservoirs of Europe. There are large challenges for the future use of this regulatory capacity with regard to balancing the electricity production in Europe under climate variability, compliance to water management plans under the Water Framework Directive and to the shifts to more renewable, but intermittent, energy sources required by the Renewable Energy Directive. A main aim of this project is to describe the variation over time of hydrological fluxes across Scandinavia in terms of their energy properties and to link that information to climatic factors and the regulation of hydroelectricty. Along these lines we explored daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, which were used to calibrate the HBV-model for 1001 watersheds in Sweden and the energy potential has been estimated as an average for that period (Figure below). These tentative results show that the surface water energy potential constitutes about one per mille of the latent heat flux due to evapotranspiration and it is, therefore, very sensitive to any fluctuation in the energy quantities of the hydrometeorological system. Tentative analysis suggests that the energy availability of surface water in Sweden exhibits significant decadal long fluctuations from 115 TWh/year up to 180 TWh/year, which follow several different time scales and periodicities, ranging from century-long trends to fluctuations occurring on time scales of a decade and shorter. In addition, recent investigations show that land-use changes and hydropower regulation has caused significant changes in the annual runoff periodicity in Swedish rivers during the 20th century. Those changes in the annual periodicities are caused by structural alterations in river basins affected by intense agriculture and hydropower regulation.

  12. DOE SBIR Phase II Final Technical Report - Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiteman, Cameron [Vertum Partners LP, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Capps, Scott [Vertum Partners LP, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2014-11-05

    Specialized Vertum Partners software tools were prototyped, tested and commercialized to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess the uncertainties of climate change on wind power production and distribution. This project resulted in three commercially proven products and a marketing tool. The first was a Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) based resource evaluation system. The second was a web-based service providing global 10m wind data from multiple sources to wind industry subscription customers. The third product addressed the needs of our utility clients looking at climate change effects on electricity distribution. For this we collaborated on the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi), which was released publicly last quarter. Finally to promote these products and educate potential users we released “Gust or Bust”, a graphic-novel styled marketing publication.

  13. Climate Change Projection for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, D. W.

    2014-12-01

    As per recent Department of Energy (DOE) sustainability requirements, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a climate projection for the DOE's Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, SC. This will comprise data from both a statistical and a dynamic downscaling process, each interpolated to the SRS. We require variables most relevant to operational activities at the site (such as the US Forest Service's forest management program), and select temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity as being most relevant to energy and water resource requirements, fire and forest ecology, and facility and worker safety. We then develop projections of the means and extremes of these variables, estimate the effect on site operations, and develop long-term mitigation strategies. For example, given that outdoor work while wearing protective gear is a daily facet of site operations, heat stress is of primary importance to work planning, and we use the downscaled data to estimate changes in the occurrence of high temperatures. For the statistical downscaling, we use global climate model (GCM) data from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP-5), which was used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). GCM data from five research groups was selected, and two climate change scenarios - RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 - are used with observed data from site instruments and other databases to produce the downscaled projections. We apply a quantile regression downscaling method, which involves the use of the observed cumulative distribution function to correct that of the GCM. This produces a downscaled projection with an interannual variability closer to that of the observed data and allows for more extreme values in the projections, which are often absent in GCM data. The statistically downscaled data is complemented with dynamically downscaled data from the NARCCAP database, which comprises output from regional climate models forced with GCM output from the

  14. Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Energy Balance: Relevance to Climate Sensitivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Ramey, Holly S.; Roberts, Jason B.

    2011-01-01

    Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of organization for tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, here we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged heat and moisture budget. One unresolved question concerns the degree to which observable variations in the "fast" processes (e.g. convection, radiative / turbulent fluxes) can inform our understanding of feedback mechanisms operable in the context of climate change. Our analysis use daily data from satellite observations, the Modern Era analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and other model integrations to address these questions: (i) How are tropospheric temperature variations related to that tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF), ice water path (IWP), and properties of warmer liquid clouds? (ii) What role does moisture transport play vis-a-vis ocean latent heat flux in enabling the evolution of deep convection to mediate PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007 GRL ) whereby a composite time series of various quantities over 60+ ISO events is built using tropical mean tropospheric temperature signal as a reference to which the variables are related at various lag times (from -30 to +30 days). The area of interest encompasses the global oceans between 20oN/S. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. The decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, is part of the response that constitutes a "discharge" / "recharge" mechanism that facilitates tropical heat balance

  15. Production and use of regional climate model projections - A Swedish perspective on building climate services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellström, Erik; Bärring, Lars; Nikulin, Grigory; Nilsson, Carin; Persson, Gunn; Strandberg, Gustav

    2016-09-01

    We describe the process of building a climate service centred on regional climate model results from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4. The climate service has as its central facility a web service provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute where users can get an idea of various aspects of climate change from a suite of maps, diagrams, explaining texts and user guides. Here we present the contents of the web service and how this has been designed and developed in collaboration with users of the service in a dialogue reaching over more than a decade. We also present the ensemble of climate projections with RCA4 that provides the fundamental climate information presented at the web service. In this context, RCA4 has been used to downscale nine different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to 0.44° (c. 50 km) horizontal resolution over Europe. Further, we investigate how this ensemble relates to the CMIP5 ensemble. We find that the iterative approach involving the users of the climate service has been successful as the service is widely used and is an important source of information for work on climate adaptation in Sweden. The RCA4 ensemble samples a large degree of the spread in the CMIP5 ensemble implying that it can be used to illustrate uncertainties and robustness in future climate change in Sweden. The results also show that RCA4 changes results compared to the underlying AOGCMs, sometimes in a systematic way.

  16. Potential evaporation estimation through an unstressed surface energy balance and its sensitivity to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barella-Ortiz, A.; Polcher, J.; Tuzet, A.; Laval, K.

    2013-06-01

    Potential evaporation (ETP) is a basic input for hydrological and agronomic models, as well as a key variable in most actual evaporation estimations. It has been approached through several diffusive and energy balance methods, out of which the Penman-Monteith equation is recommended as the standard one. In order to deal with the diffusive approach, ETP must be estimated at a sub-diurnal frequency, as currently done in land surface models (LSM). This study presents an improved method, developed in the ORCHIDEE LSM, which consists in estimating ETP through an unstressed surface energy balance (USEB method). The results confirm the quality of the estimation which is currently implemented in the model (Milly, 1992). ETP has also been estimated using a reference equation (computed at a daily time step) provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). First, a comparison for a reference period under current climate conditions, shows that both formulations differ, specially in arid areas. However, they supply similar values when FAO's assumption of neutral stability conditions is relaxed, by replacing FAO's aerodynamic resistance by the model's one. Furthermore, if the vapour pressure deficit (VPD) estimated for FAO's equation, is substituted by ORCHIDEE's VPD or its humidity gradient, the daily mean estimate is further improved. In a second step, ETP's sensitivity to climate change is assessed comparing trends in both formulations for the 21st Century. It is found that the USEB method shows a higher sensitivity. Both VPD and the model's humidity gradient, as well as the aerodynamic resistance have been identified as key parameters in governing ETP trends. Finally, the sensitivity study is extended to three empirical approximations based on temperature, net radiation and mass transfer (Hargreaves, Priestley-Taylor and Rohwer, respectively). The sensitivity of these methods is compared to the USEB method's one to test if simplified equations are able to reproduce

  17. Potential evaporation estimation through an unstressed surface energy balance and its sensitivity to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Barella-Ortiz

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (ETP is a basic input for hydrological and agronomic models, as well as a key variable in most actual evaporation estimations. It has been approached through several diffusive and energy balance methods, out of which the Penman–Monteith equation is recommended as the standard one. In order to deal with the diffusive approach, ETP must be estimated at a sub-diurnal frequency, as currently done in land surface models (LSM. This study presents an improved method, developed in the ORCHIDEE LSM, which consists in estimating ETP through an unstressed surface energy balance (USEB method. The results confirm the quality of the estimation which is currently implemented in the model (Milly, 1992. ETP has also been estimated using a reference equation (computed at a daily time step provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO. First, a comparison for a reference period under current climate conditions, shows that both formulations differ, specially in arid areas. However, they supply similar values when FAO's assumption of neutral stability conditions is relaxed, by replacing FAO's aerodynamic resistance by the model's one. Furthermore, if the vapour pressure deficit (VPD estimated for FAO's equation, is substituted by ORCHIDEE's VPD or its humidity gradient, the daily mean estimate is further improved. In a second step, ETP's sensitivity to climate change is assessed comparing trends in both formulations for the 21st Century. It is found that the USEB method shows a higher sensitivity. Both VPD and the model's humidity gradient, as well as the aerodynamic resistance have been identified as key parameters in governing ETP trends. Finally, the sensitivity study is extended to three empirical approximations based on temperature, net radiation and mass transfer (Hargreaves, Priestley–Taylor and Rohwer, respectively. The sensitivity of these methods is compared to the USEB method's one to test if simplified equations are

  18. A New Model to Simulate Energy Performance of VRF Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Tianzhen; Pang, Xiufeng; Schetrit, Oren; Wang, Liping; Kasahara, Shinichi; Yura, Yoshinori; Hinokuma, Ryohei

    2014-03-30

    This paper presents a new model to simulate energy performance of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems in heat pump operation mode (either cooling or heating is provided but not simultaneously). The main improvement of the new model is the introduction of the evaporating and condensing temperature in the indoor and outdoor unit capacity modifier functions. The independent variables in the capacity modifier functions of the existing VRF model in EnergyPlus are mainly room wet-bulb temperature and outdoor dry-bulb temperature in cooling mode and room dry-bulb temperature and outdoor wet-bulb temperature in heating mode. The new approach allows compliance with different specifications of each indoor unit so that the modeling accuracy is improved. The new VRF model was implemented in a custom version of EnergyPlus 7.2. This paper first describes the algorithm for the new VRF model, which is then used to simulate the energy performance of a VRF system in a Prototype House in California that complies with the requirements of Title 24 ? the California Building Energy Efficiency Standards. The VRF system performance is then compared with three other types of HVAC systems: the Title 24-2005 Baseline system, the traditional High Efficiency system, and the EnergyStar Heat Pump system in three typical California climates: Sunnyvale, Pasadena and Fresno. Calculated energy savings from the VRF systems are significant. The HVAC site energy savings range from 51 to 85percent, while the TDV (Time Dependent Valuation) energy savings range from 31 to 66percent compared to the Title 24 Baseline Systems across the three climates. The largest energy savings are in Fresno climate followed by Sunnyvale and Pasadena. The paper discusses various characteristics of the VRF systems contributing to the energy savings. It should be noted that these savings are calculated using the Title 24 prototype House D under standard operating conditions. Actual performance of the VRF systems for real

  19. Cold Climate Foundation Retrofit Energy Savings: The Simulated Energy and Experimental Hygrothermal Performance of Cold Climate Foundation Wall Insulation Retrofit Measures -- Phase I, Energy Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, L. F.; Steigauf, B.

    2013-04-01

    A split simulation whole building energy/3-dimensional earth contact model (termed the BUFETS/EnergyPlus Model or BEM) capable of modeling the full range of foundation systems found in the target retrofit housing stock has been extensively tested. These foundation systems that include abovegrade foundation walls, diabatic floors or slabs as well as lookout or walkout walls, currently cannot be modeled within BEopt.

  20. Cold Climate Foundation Retrofit Energy Savings. The Simulated Energy and Experimental Hygrothermal Performance of Cold Climate Foundation Wall Insulation Retrofit Measures -- Phase I, Energy Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, Louise F. [NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Steigauf, Brianna [NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    2013-04-01

    A split simulation whole building energy / 3-dimensional earth contact model (termed the BUFETS/EnergyPlus Model or BEM) capable of modeling the full range of foundation systems found in the target retrofit housing stock has been extensively tested. These foundation systems that include abovegrade foundation walls, diabatic floors or slabs as well as lookout or walkout walls, currently cannot be modeled within BEopt.

  1. Dry matter and energy partitioning in plants under climatic stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolhar-Nordenkampf, H.R.; Postl, W.F.; Meister, M.H.; Ledl, D.; Nemeth, K. [Univ. of Vienna (Austria). Inst. of Plant Physiology; Ludlow, M.M. [CSIRO, Brisbane (Australia). Div. of Tropical Crops and Pastures

    1996-12-31

    During ontogenesis plants distribute assimilates quite differently among their organs depending on the environmental conditions. In case of high sink capacity energetically cheap storing compounds such as carbohydrates and/or organic acids are formed, whereas during periods with low demand proteins and lipids may be accumulated. Besides ontogenesis, drought and increased CO{sub 2} are able to modify sink capacity and by this transients in the partitioning pattern of carbon are induced. Plants, well adapted to several dry seasons during the year are able to allocate carbon predominantly to below ground organs. During this period many leaves become senescent. In any case stems and remaining green leaves will loose dry matter and energy. With 80% of plants under investigation CO{sub 2} enrichment was shown to induce an enforced allocation of carbon to below ground organs. Roots and Rhizomes, beets and tubers act as a sink for the additionally fixed carbon. It was demonstrated that sink capacity is controlling photosynthetic activity. With respect to agricultural production, to ecosystems and to single plants, climatic change will modify productivity and plants distribution pattern as a consequence of quite different metabolic changes. These responses are depending on the effect of natural and anthropogenic stress factors on the use of enhanced CO{sub 2} and on the allocation of additionally formed assimilates.

  2. Climate energy policy. How a great irritation makes the themes climate and energy inseperably; Klimergiepolitik. Wie eine grosse Verwirrung die Themen Klima und Energie unzertrennlich macht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stalder, Meinhard

    2012-07-01

    The focus of the book under consideration is the equalization of the politically and economically closely interconnected issues carbon, climate and energy. Since the Neolithic Age, more carbon was released worldwide by clearing of forests than by consumption of fossil energy sources. In the good old time, nearly 15% of the bread cereals is fed to horses. The perfect energy source was found by means of the upcoming petroleum industry. Already the First World War was decided by petroleum. The Second World War anyway. Also thereafter, two oil crises and two Gulf Wars kept us in suspense. Petroleum is there sufficiently, but it becomes expensive increasingly. Instead of working on the reduction of energy costs such as in the year 1979, not our appetite but the exhaust gases are pilloried. Thereby the report of the International Panel on Climate Change contains a lot of technical faults. Its content is technically motivated and became an end in itself in the meantime. At the end, it is no longer about carbon dioxide but about 'coal'. This is because, behind all pseudo-science there is a sophisticated system which annually collects 100 billion dollar worldwide and distributes this fair beyond the impoverished nations of this world.

  3. Will climate change increase ozone depletion from low-energy-electron precipitation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. G. Baumgaertner

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effects of a strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation on the transport of nitric oxide (NO produced by energetic particle precipitation. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, low-energy-electron precipitation is responsible for winter time ozone loss in the polar middle atmosphere between 1 and 6 hPa. However, as climate change is expected to increase the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, the enhancements of NOx concentrations are expected to be transported to lower altitudes in extra-tropical regions, becoming even more significant in the ozone budget. We use simulations with the chemistry climate model system ECHAM5/MESSy to compare present day effects of low-energy-electron precipitation with expected effects in a climate change scenario for the year 2100. In years of strong geomagnetic activity, similar to that observed in 2003, an additional polar ozone loss of up to 0.5 μmol/mol at 5 hPa is found. However, this would be approximately compensated by an ozone enhancement originating from a stronger poleward transport of ozone from lower latitudes caused by a strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation, as well as by slower photochemical ozone loss reactions in a stratosphere cooled by risen greenhouse gas concentrations.

  4. Visualisation and communication of probabilistic climate forecasts to renewable-energy policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffen, Sophie; Lowe, Rachel; Davis, Melanie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    Despite the strong dependence on weather and climate variability of the renewable-energy industry, and the existence of several initiatives towards demonstrating the added benefits of integrating probabilistic forecasts into energy decision-making processes, weather and climate forecasts are still under-utilised within the sector. Improved communication is fundamental to stimulate the use of climate forecast information within decision-making processes, in order to adapt to a highly climate dependent renewable-energy industry. This work focuses on improving the visualisation of climate forecast information, paying special attention to seasonal time scales. This activity is central to enhance climate services for renewable energy and to optimise the usefulness and usability of inherently complex climate information. In the realm of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) initiative, and subsequent European projects: Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction for the Improvement of European Climate Service (SPECS) and the European Provision of Regional Impacts Assessment in Seasonal and Decadal Timescales (EUPORIAS), this paper investigates the visualisation and communication of seasonal forecasts with regards to their usefulness and usability, to enable the development of a European climate service. The target end user is the group of renewable-energy policy makers, who are central to enhance climate services for the energy industry. The overall objective is to promote the wide-range dissemination and exchange of actionable climate information based on seasonal forecasts from Global Producing Centres (GPCs). It examines the existing main barriers and deficits. Examples of probabilistic climate forecasts from different GPC's are used to make a catalogue of current approaches, to assess their advantages and limitations and, finally, to recommend better alternatives. Interviews have been conducted with renewable-energy stakeholders to receive feedback for the

  5. An efficient climate model with water isotope physics: NEEMY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, J.; Emile-Geay, J.

    2015-12-01

    This work describes the development of an isotope-enabled atmosphere-ocean global climate model, NEEMY. This is a model of intermediate complexity, which can run 100 model years in 30 hours using 33 CPUs. The atmospheric component is the SPEEDY-IER (Molteni et al. 2003; Dee et al. 2015a), which is a water isotope-enabled (with equilibrium and kinetic fractionation schemes in precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture) simplified atmospheric general circulation model, with T30 horizontal resolution and 8 vertical layers. The oceanic component is NEMO 3.4 (Madec 2008), a state-of-the-art oceanic model (~2° horizontal resolution and 31 vertical layers) with an oceanic isotope module (a passive tracer scheme). A 1000-year control run shows that NEEMY is stable and its energy is conserved. The mean state is comparable to that of CMIP3-era CGCMs, though much cheaper to run. Atmospheric teleconnections such as the NAO and PNA are simulated very well. NEEMY also simulates the oceanic meridional overturning circulation well. The tropical climate variability is weaker than observations, and the climatology exhibits a double ITCZ problem despite bias corrections. The standard deviation of the monthly mean Nino3.4 index is 0.61K, compared to 0.91K in observations (Reynolds et al. 2002). We document similarities and differences with a close cousin, SPEEDY-NEMO (Kucharski et al. 2015). With its fast speed and relatively complete physical processes, NEEMY is suitable for paleoclimate studies ; we will present some forced simulations of the past millennium and their use in forward-modeling climate proxies, via proxy system models (PSMs, Dee et al 2015b). References Dee, S., D. Noone, N. Buenning, J. Emile-Geay, and Y. Zhou, 2015a: SPEEDY-IER: A fast atmospheric GCM with water isotope physics. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120: 73-91. doi:10.1002/2014JD022194. Dee, S. G., J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, Allam, A., D. M. Thompson, and E. J. Steig, 2015b: PRYSM: an open-source framework

  6. A coupled climate model simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brandefelt

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM simulation, integrated for 1500 years to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3. The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP annual global mean surface temperature (Ts is 5.5 °C higher than in the simulated recent past (RP climate and 1.3 °C lower than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP climate. The simulated GS12 climate is evaluated against proxy data of sea surface temperature (SST. Simulated SSTs fall within the uncertainty range of the proxy SSTs for 30–50% of the sites depending on season. Proxy SSTs are higher than simulated SSTs in the Central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. The annual global mean Ts only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 years of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599, with a maximum of 8 °C in temperature and 65% in precipitation in Southeastern Greenland in boreal winter, exist. Further, the agreement between simulated and proxy SST is improved from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP are analysed for the last 300 years of the GS12, LGM and RP climate simulations. In agreement with an earlier study, we find that GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions induce major modifications to ENSO teleconnections. However, significant differences in the teleconnection patterns are found between a 300-year time-slice starting after 195 model years and the last 300 years of the simulation. Thus we conclude that both the mean state and the

  7. SLC summer 2010 university - The ocean in the climate-energy problem, urban policies. Proceedings; Universite d'ete 2010 SLC - L'Ocean dans la problematique Climat-Energie, politiques urbaines. Recueil des presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    This document brings together the available presentations given at the summer 2010 university of the SLC (save the climate) organization on the topics of the ocean in the climate-energy problem, and of the urban policies. Nine presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Biofuels made from micro-algae: stakes and challenges (Olivier Bernard, Comore - INRIA /CNRS/UPMC); 2 - The energy of waves (Alain Clement, Ecole Centrale de Nantes); 3 - The sea, new source of renewable energies? (J.J. Herou, EDF CIH); 4 - Oceans acidification: the other CO{sub 2} problem (James Orr, Pierre Simon Laplace Institute - IPSL, Laboratory of climate and environmental Sciences - LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ); 5 - Oceans and carbon cycle (Laurent Bopp, IPSL/LSCE); 6 - Renewable marine energies (Yann-Herve De Roeck, France Energies Marines); 7 - Energy renovation of buildings (Jean-Claude Terrier, Mesac Europe); 8 - Modevur research project - Modeling of urban development, sketch of a development typology of chinese cities (Clement-Noel Douady); 9 - Urban areas in the fight against climate change: stakes, knowledge and controversies (Francois Menard, PUCA)

  8. Promoting India's development: energy security and climate security are convergent goals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rajan, Gupta [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shankar, Harihar [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Joshi, Sunjoy [INDIA

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates three aspects of the energy-climate challenges faced by India. First, we examine energy security in light of anticipated growth in power generation in response to the national goal of maintaining close to 10% growth in GDP. Second, we examine possible options for mitigation and adaptation to climate change for India that it can take to the coming Copenhagen meeting on climate change. Lastly, we introduce an open web based tool for analyzing and planning global energy systems called the Global Energy Observatory (GEO).

  9. Integrated hydrological SVAT model for climate change studies in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollerup, M.; Refsgaard, J.; Sonnenborg, T. O.

    2010-12-01

    In a major Danish funded research project (www.hyacints.dk) a coupling is being established between the HIRHAM regional climate model code from Danish Meteorological Institute and the MIKE SHE distributed hydrological model code from DHI. The linkage between those two codes is a soil vegetation atmosphere transfer scheme, which is a module of MIKE SHE. The coupled model will be established for the entire country of Denmark (43,000 km2 land area) where a MIKE SHE based hydrological model already exists (Henriksen et al., 2003, 2008). The present paper presents the MIKE SHE SVAT module and the methodology used for parameterising and calibrating the MIKE SHE SVAT module for use throughout the country. As SVAT models previously typically have been tested for research field sites with comprehensive data on energy fluxes, soil and vegetation data, the major challenge lies in parameterisation of the model when only ordinary data exist. For this purpose annual variations of vegetation characteristics (Leaf Area Index (LAI), Crop height, Root depth and the surface albedo) for different combinations of soil profiles and vegetation types have been simulated by use of the soil plant atmosphere model Daisy (Hansen et al., 1990; Abrahamsen and Hansen, 2000) has been applied. The MIKE SHE SVAT using Daisy generated surface/soil properties model has been calibrated against existing data on groundwater heads and river discharges. Simulation results in form of evapotranspiration and percolation are compared to the existing MIKE SHE model and to observations. To analyse the use of the SVAT model in climate change impact assessments data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/) have been analysed to assess the impacts on reference evapotranspiration (calculated by the Makkink and the Penmann-Monteith equations) as well as on the individual elements in the Penmann-Monteith equation (radiation, wind speed, humidity and temperature). The differences on the

  10. The Urgent Need for Improved Climate Models and Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, Lisa; Baethgen, Walter; Kirtman, Ben; Meehl, Gerald

    2009-09-01

    An investment over the next 10 years of the order of US$2 billion for developing improved climate models was recommended in a report (http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_WorldModellingSummit_Jan2009.pdf) from the May 2008 World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, held in Reading, United Kingdom, and presented by the World Climate Research Programme. The report indicated that “climate models will, as in the past, play an important, and perhaps central, role in guiding the trillion dollar decisions that the peoples, governments and industries of the world will be making to cope with the consequences of changing climate.” If trillions of dollars are going to be invested in making decisions related to climate impacts, an investment of $2 billion, which is less than 0.1% of that amount, to provide better climate information seems prudent. One example of investment in adaptation is the World Bank's Climate Investment Fund, which has drawn contributions of more than $6 billion for work on clean technologies and adaptation efforts in nine pilot countries and two pilot regions. This is just the beginning of expenditures on adaptation efforts by the World Bank and other mechanisms, focusing on only a small fraction of the nations of the world and primarily aimed at anticipated anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, decisions are being made now, all around the world—by individuals, companies, and governments—that affect people and their livelihoods today, not just 50 or more years in the future. Climate risk management, whether related to projects of the scope of the World Bank's or to the planning and decisions of municipalities, will be best guided by meaningful climate information derived from observations of the past and model predictions of the future.

  11. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin;

    2016-01-01

    simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface......, plant coverand the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub......-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact...

  12. Exomoon Climate Models with the Carbonate-Silicate Cycle and Viscoelastic Tidal Heating

    CERN Document Server

    Forgan, Duncan

    2016-01-01

    The habitable zone for exomoons with Earth-like properties is a non-trivial manifold, compared to that of Earth-like exoplanets. The presence of tidal heating, eclipses and planetary illumination in the exomoon energy budget combine to produce both circumstellar and circumplanetary habitable regions. Analytical calculations suggest that the circumplanetary habitable region is defined only by an inner edge (with its outer limits determined by orbital stability). Subsequent calculations using 1D latitudinal climate models indicated that the combined effect of eclipses and ice-albedo feedback can produce an outer edge to the circumplanetary habitable zone. But is this outer edge real, or an artefact of the climate model's relative simplicity? We present an upgraded 1D climate model of Earth-like exomoon climates, containing the carbonate-silicate cycle and viscoelastic tidal heating. We conduct parameter surveys of both the circumstellar and circumplanetary habitable zones, and we find that the outer circumplane...

  13. Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Balance Variability: Linking Weather to Climate Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Clayson, Carol Anne

    2013-01-01

    Radiative and turbulent surface exchanges of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. These fluxes are integral components to tropical ocean-atmosphere variability; they can drive ocean mixed layer variations and modify the atmospheric boundary layer properties including moist static stability, thereby influencing larger-scale tropical dynamics. Non-parametric cluster-based classification of atmospheric and ocean surface properties has shown an ability to identify coherent weather regimes, each typically associated with similar properties and processes. Using satellite-based observational radiative and turbulent energy flux products, this study investigates the relationship between these weather states and surface energy processes within the context of tropical climate variability. Investigations of surface energy variations accompanying intraseasonal and interannual tropical variability often use composite-based analyses of the mean quantities of interest. Here, a similar compositing technique is employed, but the focus is on the distribution of the heat and moisture fluxes within their weather regimes. Are the observed changes in surface energy components dominated by changes in the frequency of the weather regimes or through changes in the associated fluxes within those regimes? It is this question that the presented work intends to address. The distribution of the surface heat and moisture fluxes is evaluated for both normal and non-normal states. By examining both phases of the climatic oscillations, the symmetry of energy and water cycle responses are considered.

  14. The importance of land cover change across urban-rural typologies for climate modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, Jason; Habeeb, Dana; Stone, Brian

    2013-01-15

    Land cover changes affect local surface energy balances by changing the amount of solar energy reflected, the magnitude and duration over which absorbed energy is released as heat, and the amount of energy that is diverted to non-heating fluxes through evaporation. However, such local influences often are only crudely included in climate modeling exercises, if at all. A better understanding of local land conversion dynamics can serve to inform inputs for climate models and increase the role for land use planning in climate management policy. Here we present a new approach for projecting and incorporating metropolitan land cover change into mesoscale climate and other environmental assessment models. Our results demonstrate the relative contributions of different land development patterns to land cover change and conversion and suggest that regional growth management strategies serving to increase settlement densities over time can have a significant influence on the rate of deforestation per unit of population growth. Employing the approach presented herein, the impacts of land conversion on climate change and on parallel environmental systems and services, such as ground water recharge, habitat provision, and food production, may all be investigated more closely and managed through land use planning.

  15. Can a regional climate model reproduce observed extreme temperatures?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter F. Craigmile

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Using output from a regional Swedish climate model and observations from the Swedish synoptic observational network, we compare seasonal minimum temperatures from model output and observations using marginal extreme value modeling techniques. We make seasonal comparisons using generalized extreme value models and empirically estimate the shift in the distribution as a function of the regional climate model values, using the Doksum shift function. Spatial and temporal comparisons over south central Sweden are made by building hierarchical Bayesian generalized extreme value models for the observed minima and regional climate model output. Generally speaking the regional model is surprisingly well calibrated for minimum temperatures. We do detect a problem in the regional model to produce minimum temperatures close to 0◦C. The seasonal spatial effects are quite similar between data and regional model. The observations indicate relatively strong warming, especially in the northern region. This signal is present in the regional model, but is not as strong.

  16. Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change on Power and Energy Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Ifeanyi ENETE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and climate variability is receiving much attention recently because it has significant effects on our power and energy sector and therefore on the socio-economic activities of the society especially in a developing country such as Nigeria. Approach: The aim of the study is to examine the influence of climate change on power generation. Literatures were identified for review through a comprehensive search by using electronic and non-electronic databases. Related published literature and documents were searched in a systematic way using a range of key words relating to climate change impacts and energy. Results: The literature review indicates that climate change undermine power and energy production by increasingly depleting renewable and non-renewable sources, creating resources scarcity as well as damage to infrastructure. The review also indicate that climate change undermine environmental dimensions by increasing sea-level rise, extreme weather events and land degradation and pollution. Conclusion: In reducing climate-induced threats on power sector, efforts should be geared towards ensuring that our energy sector withstand the changes to our climate that are already underway by optimizing energy mix, developing low carbon and renewable energy, formulating relevant law and regulations and promoting technology advancement and economic engineering.

  17. Climate change helplessness and the (de)moralization of individual energy behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomon, Erika; Preston, Jesse L; Tannenbaum, Melanie B

    2017-03-01

    Although most people understand the threat of climate change, they do little to modify their own energy conservation behavior. One reason for this gap between belief and behavior may be that individual actions seem unimpactful and therefore are not morally relevant. This research investigates how climate change helplessness-belief that one's actions cannot affect climate change-can undermine the moralization of climate change and personal energy conservation. In Study 1, climate change efficacy predicted both moralization of energy use and energy conservation intentions beyond individual belief in climate change. In Studies 2 and 3, participants read information about climate change that varied in efficacy message, that is, whether individual actions (e.g., using less water, turning down heat) make a difference in the environment. Participants who read that their behavior made no meaningful impact reported weaker moralization and intentions (Study 2), and reported more energy consumption 1 week later (Study 3). Moreover, effects on intentions and actions were mediated by changes in moralization. We discuss ways to improve climate change messages to foster environmental efficacy and moralization of personal energy use. (PsycINFO Database Record

  18. The visualisation and communication of probabilistic climate forecasts to renewable energy policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doblas-Reyes, F.; Steffen, S.; Lowe, R.; Davis, M.; Rodó, X.

    2013-12-01

    Despite the strong dependence of weather and climate variability on the renewable energy industry, and several initiatives towards demonstrating the added benefits of integrating probabilistic forecasts into energy decision making process, they are still under-utilised within the sector. Improved communication is fundamental to stimulate the use of climate forecast information within decision-making processes, in order to adapt to a highly climate dependent renewable energy industry. This paper focuses on improving the visualisation of climate forecast information, paying special attention to seasonal to decadal (s2d) timescales. This is central to enhance climate services for renewable energy, and optimise the usefulness and usability of inherently complex climate information. In the realm of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) initiative, and subsequent European projects: Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction for the Improvement of European Climate Service (SPECS) and the European Provision of Regional Impacts Assessment in Seasonal and Decadal Timescales (EUPORIAS), this paper investigates the visualisation and communication of s2d forecasts with regards to their usefulness and usability, to enable the development of a European climate service. The target end user will be renewable energy policy makers, who are central to enhance climate services for the energy industry. The overall objective is to promote the wide-range dissemination and exchange of actionable climate information based on s2d forecasts from Global Producing Centres (GPC's). Therefore, it is crucial to examine the existing main barriers and deficits. Examples of probabilistic climate forecasts from different GPC's were used to prepare a catalogue of current approaches, to assess their advantages and limitations and finally to recommend better alternatives. In parallel, interviews were conducted with renewable energy stakeholders to receive feedback for the improvement of existing

  19. Co-variability of poleward propagating atmospheric energy with tropical and higher-latitude climate oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Wan-Ru [Iowa State University, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, IA (United States); City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China); Chen, Tsing-Chang [Iowa State University, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, IA (United States); Wang, Shih-Yu [Utah State University, Utah Climate Center and Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Logan, UT (United States)

    2012-10-15

    One may infer from the poleward propagation of angular momentum that energy change in tropical regions may be manifested in polar regions through a poleward propagation. This idea does not seem to be extensively addressed in the literature. It has been found that the poleward propagation of total atmospheric energy appears to connect the tropics and the polar regions on the interannual timescale. The present study explores how this poleward propagation may be linked to prominent climate oscillations such as ENSO, PNA, NAO, AO, AAO, and PSA. Analysis suggests that the poleward propagation of energy is likely a result of the atmospheric circulation change modulated by the climate patterns of ENSO, PNA, NAO, AO from tropical to Arctic regions and by the climate patterns of ENSO, PSA, AAO from tropical to Antarctic regions. The existence of the poleward energy propagation may shed light on studies exploring the linkage between topical climate and polar climate. (orig.)

  20. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

    2015-01-01

    Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

  1. Photosynthesis sensitivity to climate change in land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manrique-Sunen, Andrea; Black, Emily; Verhoef, Anne; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

    2016-04-01

    Accurate representation of vegetation processes within land surface models is key to reproducing surface carbon, water and energy fluxes. Photosynthesis determines the amount of CO2 fixated by plants as well as the water lost in transpiration through the stomata. Photosynthesis is calculated in land surface models using empirical equations based on plant physiological research. It is assumed that CO2 assimilation is either CO2 -limited, radiation -limited ; and in some models export-limited (the speed at which the products of photosynthesis are used by the plant) . Increased levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration tend to enhance photosynthetic activity, but the effectiveness of this fertilization effect is regulated by environmental conditions and the limiting factor in the photosynthesis reaction. The photosynthesis schemes at the 'leaf level' used by land surface models JULES and CTESSEL have been evaluated against field photosynthesis observations. Also, the response of photosynthesis to radiation, atmospheric CO2 and temperature has been analysed for each model, as this is key to understanding the vegetation response that climate models using these schemes are able to reproduce. Particular emphasis is put on the limiting factor as conditions vary. It is found that while at present day CO2 concentrations export-limitation is only relevant at low temperatures, as CO2 levels rise it becomes an increasingly important restriction on photosynthesis.

  2. The climate impact of energy peat utilisation - comparison and sensitivity analysis of Finnish and Swedish results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, Kristina; Kirkinen, Johanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2006-06-15

    The climate impact of energy peat utilisation have been studied both in Finland by VTT Technical Research Centre and in Sweden by IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd. The main objective of this study is to compare the results of earlier studies by VTT and IVL and to perform a sensitivity analysis of previous and new results. The scientific approach of the two studies is very similar. The climate impact of peat utilisation is considered from a life-cycle point of view by taking into account all phases of the peat utilisation chain. Peat reserves can be both sinks and sources of greenhouse gas emissions as well as there are both uptake and emissions of greenhouse gases during the utilisation chain. The net impact of the utilisation chain is assessed as the climate impact due to the utilisation chain minus the climate impact of non-utilisation chain. The instantaneous radiative forcing and accumulated radiative forcing are used in both studies as the indicator of the climate impact. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes due to emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases. The differences in the models for calculating concentrations and radiative forcing are minor. There are some differences in the definitions and boundaries of the considered peat utilisation chains, although the differences in the results due to differences in the chain definitions are small. The main reason for the differences in results between the two studies is differences in emission (and uptake) estimates for the after-treatment phase and the non-utilisation chain. Both Swedish and Finnish studies show that the use of cultivated peatland for energy peat utilisation results in lower climate impact than using coal (within 100 years). Both studies show that the use of pristine mires for peat production will result in larger climate impact than the use of already drained peatlands. The climate impact of peat utilisation chains where fens and forestry

  3. Regional Climate Modeling over South America: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvina A. Solman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This review summarizes the progress achieved on regional climate modeling activities over South America since the early efforts at the beginning of the 2000s until now. During the last 10 years, simulations with regional climate models (RCMs have been performed for several purposes over the region. Early efforts were mainly focused on sensitivity studies to both physical mechanisms and technical aspects of RCMs. The last developments were focused mainly on providing high-resolution information on regional climate change. This paper describes the most outstanding contributions from the isolated efforts to the ongoing coordinated RCM activities in the framework of the CORDEX initiative, which represents a major endeavor to produce ensemble climate change projections at regional scales and allows exploring the associated range of uncertainties. The remaining challenges in modeling South American climate features are also discussed.

  4. Multi-Scale Coupling in Ocean and Climate Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Leslie Smith

    2009-08-14

    We have made significant progress on several projects aimed at understanding multi-scale dynamics in geophysical flows. Large-scale flows in the atmosphere and ocean are influenced by stable density stratification and rotation. The presence of stratification and rotation has important consequences through (i) the conservation of potential vorticity q = {omega} {center_dot} {del} {rho}, where {omega} is the total vorticity and {rho} is the density, and (ii) the existence of waves that affect the redistribution of energy from a given disturbance to the flow. Our research is centered on quantifying the effects of potential vorticity conservation and of wave interactions for the coupling of disparate time and space scales in the oceans and the atmosphere. Ultimately we expect the work to help improve predictive capabilities of atmosphere, ocean and climate modelers. The main findings of our research projects are described.

  5. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  6. The UK solar energy resource and the impact of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Burnett, Dougal; Barbour, Edward; Harrison, Gareth

    2014-01-01

    Solar energy use in the UK is increasing dramatically, providing both heat energy and generation of electricity. This trend is expected to continue due to solar technologies becoming cheaper and more readily available along with low carbon government legislation such as the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) and Feed in Tariffs (FiTs) supporting solar energy deployment. However, the effects of climate change on the solar resource remain largely unstudied. Climate change affects cloud cover charac...

  7. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework ...

  8. Drivers of stability of climate coalitions in the STACO model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellink, R.B.

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates which drivers affect the formation and stability of international climate agreements (ICAs). The applied model STACO is used to project costs and benefits of an international agreement on climate change mitigation activities. The simulation results show that an incentive-base

  9. Energy and Climate Monitor Agricultural Sector 2011; Energie- en klimaatmonitor Agrosectoren 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moerkerken, A.; Gerlagh, T.; De Jong, G.; Both, D. [Agentschap NL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Verhoog, D. [Landbouw Economisch Instituut LEI-WUR, Wageningen UR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Segers, R. [Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek CBS, Den Haag (Netherlands)

    2011-12-15

    This report contains the results of the Innovation and Action program Dutch Agricultural sectors, showing a total overview of energy and climate in the agricultural sectors, detailed results of the agricultural, horticultural -open cultivation, and cattle farming sectors and the forestry and wood sectors, as well as several highlights of the sectors that already have their own monitor (greenhouse horticulture, flower bulbs, mushrooms and agricultural industry) [Dutch] Resultaten van het Innovatie- en actieprogramma Agrosectoren met een totaaloverzicht van energie en klimaat in de agrosectoren, gedetailleerde resultaten van de ATV-sectoren (akkerbouw, tuinbouw open teelt en veehouderij) en de bos- en houtsector, en enkele highlights van de sectoren die al een eigen monitor hebben (glastuinbouw, bloembollen, paddenstoelen en agro-industrie)

  10. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

    2016-03-10

    The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

  11. Old Wine in New Bottles? Does Climate Policy Determine Bilateral Development Aid for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Michaelowa

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Published by Palgrave MacmillanSince the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 bilateral and multilateral donors have stressed that development assistance has increasingly been oriented towards climate-friendly interventions. With respect to energy aid, this should lead to a substantial increase in projects related to renewable energy and energy efficiency. Given a new database of hundreds of thousands of bilateral development assistance projects, we can assess whether such a reorientation has indeed taken place. We find that, contrary to expectations, the share of bilaterally-funded renewable energy and energy efficiency projects did not increase over the period from 1980 to 2008. This share fluctuated greatly, following the price of oil, peaking with the second oil crisis of the early 1980s. The impacts of global climate policy treaties are minor or inexistent. ‘Traditional’ renewable energies such as hydro and geothermal declined, while “new” renewables showed two peaks in the early 1980s and late 1990s. Differences between donor countries are huge. Several countries, including climate sceptics such as the US and Australia, but also the UK and Switzerland, saw a consistent decline. The self-proclaimed climate pioneers such as Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden show peaks related to both the oil crises and international climate policy. Only in Austria, Denmark, Finland and Spain can ‘new’ climate mitigation development assistance be found.

  12. A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Leedale

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

  13. A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P

    2016-03-31

    Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

  14. Comparing snow models under current and future climates: Uncertainties and implications for hydrological impact studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troin, Magali; Poulin, Annie; Baraer, Michel; Brissette, François

    2016-09-01

    Projected climate change effects on snow hydrology are investigated for the 2041-2060 horizon following the SRES A2 emissions scenario over three snowmelt-dominated catchments in Quebec, Canada. A 16-member ensemble of eight snow models (SM) simulations, based on the high-resolution Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-15 km) simulations driven by two realizations of the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3), is established per catchment. This study aims to compare a range of SMs in their ability at simulating snow processes under current climate, and to evaluate how they affect the assessment of the climate change-induced snow impacts at the catchment scale. The variability of snowpack response caused by the use of different models within two different SM approaches (degree-day (DD) versus mixed degree-day/energy balance (DD/EB)) is also evaluated, as well as the uncertainty of natural climate variability. The simulations cover 1961-1990 in the present period and 2041-2060 in the future period. There is a general convergence in the ensemble spread of the climate change signals on snow water equivalent at the catchment scale, with an earlier peak and a decreased magnitude in all basins. The results of four snow indicators show that most of the uncertainty arises from natural climate variability (inter-member variability of the CRCM) followed by the snow model. Both the DD and DD/EB models provide comparable assessments of the impacts of climate change on snow hydrology at the catchment scale.

  15. Efficient heat supply and use from an energy-system and climate perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Danestig, Maria

    2009-03-15

    The aim of this thesis is to illustrate whether the heat demand in district heating systems can be seen as a resource that enables efficient energy utilization, how this can be achieved and to discuss consequences of this assumption. Based on the answers to posed research questions and on the studies included in this thesis, it is concluded that the hypothesis 'A common system approach for energy supply and heat demand will show climate and economic efficient solutions' is true. In cold-climate countries, energy for heating of buildings is essential and heating options that interplay with the power system through electricity use or generation have potential for efficiency improvements. In Sweden, district heating is used extensively, especially in large buildings but to a growing extent also for small houses. Some industrial heat loads and absorption cooling can complement space heating demand so that the production resources may be more evenly utilised during the seasons of the year. Rising electricity prices in recent years cause problems for the extensive use of electric heating in Sweden and further switching to district heating should be a possible option. To be economically favourable, district-heating systems require a certain heat load density. New low-energy houses and energy-efficiency measures in existing buildings decrease the heat demand in buildings and, thus, in district heating systems. Optimisation models have been used in several studies of large, complex energy systems. Such models allow scenarios with changing policy instruments and changed consumer behaviour to be analysed. Energy efficiency measures as well as good conditions for efficient electricity generation, which can replace old, inefficient plants, are needed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. Results when having a European energy perspective to studies of changes in Sweden differ from when having for example a Swedish energy system perspective The

  16. A methodology for model-based greenhouse design: Part 1, a greenhouse climate model for a broad range of designs and climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanthoor, B.H.E.; Stanghellini, C.; Henten, van E.J.; Visser, de P.H.B.

    2011-01-01

    With the aim of developing a model-based method to design greenhouses for a broad range of climatic and economic conditions, a greenhouse climate model has been developed and validated. This model describes the effects of the outdoor climate and greenhouse design on the indoor greenhouse climate. Fo

  17. Observing and Modeling Earth's Energy Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Bjorn; Schwartz, Stephen E.

    2012-07-01

    This article reviews, from the authors' perspective, progress in observing and modeling energy flows in Earth's climate system. Emphasis is placed on the state of understanding of Earth's energy flows and their susceptibility to perturbations, with particular emphasis on the roles of clouds and aerosols. More accurate measurements of the total solar irradiance and the rate of change of ocean enthalpy help constrain individual components of the energy budget at the top of the atmosphere to within ±2 W m-2. The measurements demonstrate that Earth reflects substantially less solar radiation and emits more terrestrial radiation than was believed even a decade ago. Active remote sensing is helping to constrain the surface energy budget, but new estimates of downwelling surface irradiance that benefit from such methods are proving difficult to reconcile with existing precipitation climatologies. Overall, the energy budget at the surface is much more uncertain than at the top of the atmosphere. A decade of high-precision measurements of the energy budget at the top of the atmosphere is providing new opportunities to track Earth's energy flows on timescales ranging from days to years, and at very high spatial resolution. The measurements show that the principal limitation in the estimate of secular trends now lies in the natural variability of the Earth system itself. The forcing-feedback-response framework, which has developed to understand how changes in Earth's energy flows affect surface temperature, is reviewed in light of recent work that shows fast responses (adjustments) of the system are central to the definition of the effective forcing that results from a change in atmospheric composition. In many cases, the adjustment, rather than the characterization of the compositional perturbation (associated, for instance, with changing greenhouse gas concentrations, or aerosol burdens), limits accurate determination of the radiative forcing. Changes in clouds contribute

  18. Approaches to 30% Energy Savings at the Community Scale in the Hot-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas-Rees, S.; Beal, D.; Martin, E.; Fonorow, K.

    2013-03-01

    BA-PIRC has worked with several community-scale builders within the hot humid climate zone to improve performance of production, or community scale, housing. Tommy Williams Homes (Gainesville, FL), Lifestyle Homes (Melbourne, FL), and Habitat for Humanity (various locations, FL) have all been continuous partners of the BA Program and are the subjects of this report to document achievement of the Building America goal of 30% whole house energy savings packages adopted at the community scale. The scope of this report is to demonstrate achievement of these goals though the documentation of production-scale homes built cost-effectively at the community scale, and modeled to reduce whole-house energy use by 30% in the Hot Humid climate region. Key aspects of this research include determining how to evolve existing energy efficiency packages to produce replicable target savings, identifying what builders' technical assistance needs are for implementation and working with them to create sustainable quality assurance mechanisms, and documenting the commercial viability through neutral cost analysis and market acceptance. This report documents certain barriers builders overcame and the approaches they implemented in order to accomplish Building America (BA) Program goals that have not already been documented in previous reports.

  19. Final report: The effect of climate change on the Norwegian Energy System towards 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, P.; Rosenberg, E.; Fidje, A.; Meir, M.; Haugen, J.E.; Jarlseth, T.

    2010-08-15

    The climate impact on the renewable resources, end use demand, and on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050 is identified. Climate change will reduce the heat demand, increase the cooling demand, result in no impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro power potential. The total impact is reduced energy system costs, and lower Norwegian electricity prices. The net electricity export will increase, and national investments in new renewable power production like offshore wind- , tidal- and wave power will decrease due to climate change. Additionally, the electricity consumption in the residential and in the commercial sector will decrease, and climate change will lead to an earlier profitable implementation of electric based vehicles in Norway. Despite great uncertainties in the future climate, various future emission scenarios are compatible regarding the Norwegian climate impact, although the magnitude of the impact varies. (Author)

  20. Emulation of MIROC5 with a simple climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizaki, Yasuhiro; Emori, Seita; Shiogama, Hideo; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yokohata, Tokuta; Yoshimori, Masakazu

    2014-05-01

    We developed a simple climate model based on MAGICC6, and investigated the ability of the simple climate model to emulate global mean surface air temperature (SAT) changes of an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (MIROC5) in the twenty-first century in representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Some previous research indicated that climate sensitivity, ocean vertical diffusion and forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (direct and indirect effects of sulfate aerosol, black carbon and organic carbon) are important factors to emulate global mean SAT changes of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CMIP3. We therefore estimate these important parameters in the simple climate model using a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The estimated values of the important parameters by the MCMC are physically valid, and our simple climate model can successfully emulate global mean SAT changes of MIROC5 in RCPs with the estimated parameters by the MCMC approach. In addition, we estimated the relative contributions f each important parameter in sensitivity experiments, in which we change the value of an important parameter from the estimated one by the MCMC to the default value of MAGICC6. As a result, we found that the estimation of climate sensitivity is the most important factor for the emulation of the AOGCM, and the stimation of ocean vertical diffusion is also important factor. Although the estimations of the anthropogenic aerosols forcing are very important for the emulation of the AOGCM in the twenty century, the influence of them on the emulation of the AOGCM in the twenty first century is very small. This is because emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are projected to decrease in the twenty first century, and relative contributions of the forcing of anthropogenic aerosols also decrease. Carbon cycle models are not incorporated into our simple climate model yet. A sophisticated carbon cycle model is required to be incorporated into

  1. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  2. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominant factor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

  3. Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Giant Panda Habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Songer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca are one of the most widely recognized endangered species globally. Habitat loss and fragmentation are the main threats, and climate change could significantly impact giant panda survival. We integrated giant panda habitat information with general climate models (GCMs to predict future geographic distribution and fragmentation of giant panda habitat. Results support a major general prediction of climate change—a shift of habitats towards higher elevation and higher latitudes. Our models predict climate change could reduce giant panda habitat by nearly 60% over 70 years. New areas may become suitable outside the current geographic range but much of these areas is far from the current giant panda range and only 15% fall within the current protected area system. Long-term survival of giant pandas will require the creation of new protected areas that are likely to support suitable habitat even if the climate changes.

  4. Modelling of biomass utilization for energy purpose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grzybek, Anna (ed.)

    2010-07-01

    the overall farms structure, farms land distribution on several separate subfields for one farm, villages' overpopulation and very high employment in agriculture (about 27% of all employees in national economy works in agriculture). Farmers have low education level. In towns 34% of population has secondary education and in rural areas - only 15-16%. Less than 2% inhabitants of rural areas have higher education. The structure of land use is as follows: arable land 11.5%, meadows and pastures 25.4%, forests 30.1%. Poland requires implementation of technical and technological progress for intensification of agricultural production. The reason of competition for agricultural land is maintenance of the current consumption level and allocation of part of agricultural production for energy purposes. Agricultural land is going to be key factor for biofuels production. In this publication research results for the Project PL0073 'Modelling of energetical biomass utilization for energy purposes' have been presented. The Project was financed from the Norwegian Financial Mechanism and European Economic Area Financial Mechanism. The publication is aimed at moving closer and explaining to the reader problems connected with cultivations of energy plants and dispelling myths concerning these problems. Exchange of fossil fuels by biomass for heat and electric energy production could be significant input in carbon dioxide emission reduction. Moreover, biomass crop and biomass utilization for energetical purposes play important role in agricultural production diversification in rural areas transformation. Agricultural production widening enables new jobs creation. Sustainable development is going to be fundamental rule for Polish agriculture evolution in long term perspective. Energetical biomass utilization perfectly integrates in the evolution frameworks, especially on local level. There are two facts. The fist one is that increase of interest in energy crops in Poland

  5. Modelling of biomass utilization for energy purpose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grzybek, Anna (ed.)

    2010-07-01

    the overall farms structure, farms land distribution on several separate subfields for one farm, villages' overpopulation and very high employment in agriculture (about 27% of all employees in national economy works in agriculture). Farmers have low education level. In towns 34% of population has secondary education and in rural areas - only 15-16%. Less than 2% inhabitants of rural areas have higher education. The structure of land use is as follows: arable land 11.5%, meadows and pastures 25.4%, forests 30.1%. Poland requires implementation of technical and technological progress for intensification of agricultural production. The reason of competition for agricultural land is maintenance of the current consumption level and allocation of part of agricultural production for energy purposes. Agricultural land is going to be key factor for biofuels production. In this publication research results for the Project PL0073 'Modelling of energetical biomass utilization for energy purposes' have been presented. The Project was financed from the Norwegian Financial Mechanism and European Economic Area Financial Mechanism. The publication is aimed at moving closer and explaining to the reader problems connected with cultivations of energy plants and dispelling myths concerning these problems. Exchange of fossil fuels by biomass for heat and electric energy production could be significant input in carbon dioxide emission reduction. Moreover, biomass crop and biomass utilization for energetical purposes play important role in agricultural production diversification in rural areas transformation. Agricultural production widening enables new jobs creation. Sustainable development is going to be fundamental rule for Polish agriculture evolution in long term perspective. Energetical biomass utilization perfectly integrates in the evolution frameworks, especially on local level. There are two facts. The fist one is that increase of interest in energy crops in Poland

  6. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-10

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21(st) century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20(th)-century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21(st)-century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

  7. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Eby

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes seem to be underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate-carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated.

    Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2x and 4x CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate-carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by General Circulation Models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows considerable synergy between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given

  8. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty