WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate food limitation

  1. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  2. How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Lucht, W.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.; Smith, P.

    2005-08-01

    In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.

  3. How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE. LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.

  4. Food irradiation, profits and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The utility of the irradiation to overcome diverse problems of lost nutritious, it has been demonstrated in multiple investigation works, that its have confirmed the value and the inoculation of the irradiated foods. The quantity of energy applied to each food, is in function of the wanted effect. In this document a guide with respect to the practical application and the utility of the irradiation process in different foods, as well as the suggested dose average is shown. Among the limitations of the use of this technology, its are the costs and not being able to apply it to some fresh foods. (Author)

  5. Climate Change and Food Security

    OpenAIRE

    Saina, Christopher Kipkoech; Murgor, Daniel Kipkosgei; Murgor, Florence A.C

    2013-01-01

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are...

  6. Food Insecurity: Limitations of Emergency Food Resources for Our Patients

    OpenAIRE

    Gany, Francesca; Bari, Sehrish; Crist, Michael; Moran, Alyssa; Rastogi, Natasha; Leng, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    Rates of food insecurity are high among medically underserved patients. We analyzed food pantry responsiveness to the needs of medically ill cancer patients in New York City with the intent ofidentifying barriers to available food resources. Our data, collected from 60 pantries, suggest that the emergency food system is currently unable to accommodate patient needs. Accessibility issues include restricted service hours and documentation requirements. Food services were limited in quantity of ...

  7. Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security

    OpenAIRE

    Margaret C. Nelson; Ingram, Scott E.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Streeter, Richard; Peeples, Matthew A.; McGovern, Thomas H.; Hegmon, Michelle; Arneborg, Jette; Kintigh, Keith W.; Brewington, Seth; Katherine A. Spielmann; Simpson, Ian A.; Strawhacker, Colleen; Comeau, Laura E. L.; Torvinen, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Climate-induced disasters are impacting human well-being in ever-increasing ways. Disaster research and management recognize and emphasize the need to reduce vulnerabilities, although extant policy is not in line with this realization. This paper assesses the extent to which vulnerability to food shortage, as a result of social, demographic, and resource conditions at times of climatic challenge, correlates with subsequent declines in social and food security. Extreme climate challenges are i...

  8. Global food security under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidhuber, J.; Tubiello, F.N.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed s...

  9. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  10. Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Margaret C.; Ingram, Scott E.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Streeter, Richard; Peeples, Matthew A.; McGovern, Thomas H.; Hegmon, Michelle; Arneborg, Jette; Brewington, Seth; Spielmann, Katherine A.; Simpson, Ian A.; Strawhacker, Colleen; Comeau, Laura E. L.; Torvinen, Andrea; Madsen, Christian K.; Hambrecht, George; Smiarowski, Konrad

    2016-01-01

    This paper identifies rare climate challenges in the long-term history of seven areas, three in the subpolar North Atlantic Islands and four in the arid-to-semiarid deserts of the US Southwest. For each case, the vulnerability to food shortage before the climate challenge is quantified based on eight variables encompassing both environmental and social domains. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between the “weight” of vulnerability before a climate challenge and the nature of social change and food security following a challenge. The outcome of this work is directly applicable to debates about disaster management policy. PMID:26712017

  11. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  12. Biophysical limits to global food production

    OpenAIRE

    1995-01-01

    Global food production, so far, has increased continuously because cropped area has expanded and productivity per unit area has increased. In some regions of the world, however, there is little scope for further spatial expansion of agriculture. In other areas, crop yields are stagnating. Does this imply that the world is approaching the biophysical limits of food production? In this research nine food-demand scenarios were analyzed, ranging from minimum population growth combined with a vege...

  13. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  14. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

  15. Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Food Security: Evidence from Yemen

    OpenAIRE

    Clemens Breisinger; Olivier Ecker; Perrihan Al-Riffai; Richard Robertson; Rainer Thiele

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural nonfarm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net...

  16. Limited food induces nepotism in drywood termites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korb, Judith

    2006-09-22

    The evolution of cooperation and altruistic behaviour where individuals forego their own reproduction to help others reproduce can be explained by kin selection. Depending on the costs and benefits provided, altruism can be evolutionarily favoured if it is directed at close relatives. A considerable body of data supports the role of relatedness as a key determinant of cooperation and conflict within societies. However, the role of ecological factors and, in particular, how these costs and benefits interact with relatedness remains poorly understood. By studying 16 colonies, here I show that in a drywood termite ecological factors determine the importance of relatedness. In colonies with limited food supply, nestmates restrict cooperative interactions mainly to close relatives, while non-discriminative cooperation occurs when food is abundant. This shows for the first time directly the interaction between ecological conditions and relatedness in shaping cooperation. PMID:17148404

  17. Policy Case Study – Food Labelling: Climate for Sustainable Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Cosbey, Aaron; Marcu, Andrei; Belis, David; Stoefs, Wijnand; Tuokko, Katja

    2015-01-01

    This study, which is part of the project entitled “Climate for Sustainable Growth“, focuses on one particular policy tool used in the agricultural sector, food labelling. It reviews food carbon labelling when put in place with clear objectives to address climate change. This study examines whether food carbon labels, as climate mitigation tools, are put in place in a sustainable way, by identifying their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainable development: 1) economic 2) social and ...

  18. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

    OpenAIRE

    Ye, Liming; Xiong, Wei; Li, Zhengguo; Yang, Peng; Wu, Wenbin; Yang, Guixia; Fu, Yijiang; zou, Jinqiu; Chen, Zhongxin; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

    2013-01-01

    International audience Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and te...

  19. Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Walsh, Margaret; Hauser, Rachel; Murray, Anthony; Jadin, Jenna; Baklund, Peter; Robinson, Paula

    2013-01-01

    Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.

  20. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change has a profound impact on agriculture and on food security. At the same time agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Fortunately there is also much to gain since the agricultural sector holds significant climate change mitigation potential through reductions

  1. New standard limits for radionuclides in foods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    By the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster caused at the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, a large amount of radioactive nuclei was released in the air and the sea. On March 17, 2011, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare instructed local governments on the food taking to follow the provisional regulation prepared by the Nuclear Safety Commission. New standards of the regulation for foods had been examining examining by the Radioactive Material Response Working Group under the Pharmaceutical Affairs and Food Sanitation Council of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, and took effect on April 1st, 2012. Way of thinking leading to new standards is outlined. (J.P.N.)

  2. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Jan C. Semenza; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Jonathan E. Suk; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled acco...

  3. Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

  4. Climate agreements under limited participation, asymmetric information and market imperfections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagem, Cathrine

    1996-12-31

    This thesis relates to climate agreements and cost efficiency by analysing the formation of a system of quota leading to distributed discharge of emissions between countries. Main fields concerned are the greenhouse effect, the political process, efficient and cost-effective climate agreements, and climate agreements under limited participation, asymmetric information and market imperfections covering fields like limited participation in climate agreements, limited participation and indirect impact on non-participating countries` emissions, limited participation and direct impact on non-participating countries` emissions under asymmetric information, and non-competitive market for tradeable quotas. 166 refs., 7 tabs.

  5. Indoor climate optimization with limited resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, A.; Gunnarsen, Lars Bo

    This report presents experimental data and models for optimisation of the indoor climate parameters temperature, noise, draught and window opening. Results are based on experiments with human subjects performed in climate chambers at University of the Philippines. The report may assist building...

  6. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth;

    2012-01-01

    Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used...... in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production...... as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across...

  7. Climatic Change, Irrigation Water Crisis and Food Security in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Asif, Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    This study describes the effects of climate change on food security in agricultural dependent country,Pakistan. Based on secondary sources of data, the study found out the evidences of climate change and itssevere implications on already inadequate and depleted natural resources of the country. The major effectsof climate change are in terms of rise in temperature, variations in precipitation pattern, increasing glaciermelt,and increasing evaporation and increased irrigation water requirement...

  8. Food security, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Taheripour, F.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.; Sahin, S.; Escurra, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper uses an advanced CGE model (Taheripour et al., 2013) coupled with hydrological projections of future water scarcity and biophysical data on likely crop yields under climate change to examine how water scarcity, climate change, and trade jointly alter land use changes across the Indian subcontinent. Climate shocks to rainfed and irrigated yields in 2030 are based on the p-DSSAT crop model, RCP 2.6, as reported under the AgMIP project (Rosenzweig et al., 2013), accessed through GEOSHARE (Villoria et al, 2014). Results show that, when water scarcity is ignored, irrigated areas grow in the wake of climate change as the returns to irrigation rise faster than for rainfed uses of land within a given agro-ecological zone. When non-agricultural competition for future water use, as well as anticipated supply side limitations are brought into play (Rosegrant et al., 2013), the opportunity cost of water rises across all river basins, with the increase ranging from 12% (Luni) to 44% (Brahmaputra). As a consequence, irrigated crop production is curtailed in most regions (Figure 1), with the largest reductions coming in the most water intensive crops, namely rice and wheat. By reducing irrigated area, which tends to have much higher yields, the combined effects of water scarcity and climate impacts require an increase in total cropped area, which rises by about 240,000 ha. The majority of this area expansion occurs in the Ganges, Indus, and Brahmari river basins. Overall crop output falls by about 2 billion, relative to the 2030 baseline, with imports rising by about 570 million. The combined effects of climate change and water scarcity for irrigation also have macro-economic consequences, resulting in a 0.28% reduction in GDP and an increase in the consumer price index by about 0.4% in 2030, compared the baseline. The national welfare impact on India amounts to roughly 3 billion (at 2007 prices) in 2030. Assuming a 3% social discount rate, the net present value of the

  9. Chinese food security and climate change: Agriculture futures

    OpenAIRE

    Ye, Liming; Tang, Huajun; Wu, Wenbin; Yang, Peng; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda

    2013-01-01

    Food security in China affects the livelihood and well-being of one-fifth of the world population. Climate change is now affecting agriculture and food production in every country of the world. Here the authors present the IMPACT model results on yield, production, and net trade of major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in China, and on daily calorie availability as an overall indicator of food security under climate change scenarios and socio-economic pathways in 2050. The obtained results sho...

  10. New Challenges Linking Water, Climate, and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    The strong links among water, climate, and food issues have long been acknowledged, but rarely studied in science or policy because of the complex interactions among local and global factors such as climate change, trade, markets, and politics. As pressures on water resources grow due to "peak water" constraints, the agricultural sector will be disproportionately affected because farmers currently use the vast majority of water mobilized by humans, are especially sensitive to climatic variability and change, and typically pay far less for water than urban and industrial users. There are economic, security, and political challenges associated with these climate impacts. This presentation will look at the interactions among the water, climate, and food sectors, drawing on experience from recent extreme events in hot spots such as the severe drought in California and the drought in the eastern Mediterranean affecting the Tigris and Euphrates river basins.

  11. Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Hintermann, Beat; Higgins, Nathaniel

    2009-01-01

    West Africa is one of the most food insecure regions of the world. Sharply increased food and energy prices in 2008 brought the role of markets in food access and availability around the world into the spotlight, particularly in urban areas. The period of high prices had the immediate consequence of sharply increasing the number of hungry people in the region without boosting farmer incomes significantly. In this article, the interaction between markets, food prices, agricultural technology and development is explored in the context of West Africa. To improve food security in West Africa, sustained commitment to investment in the agriculture sector will be needed to provide some protection against global swings in both production and world markets. Climate change mitigation programs are likely to force global energy and commodity price increases in the coming decades, putting pressure on regions like West Africa to produce more food locally to ensure stability in food security for the most vulnerable.

  12. Finnish food chain impacts on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kurppa, Sirpa; Virtanen, Yrjö

    2010-01-01

    The evaluation of the food chain’s environmental impacts was conducted using an environmentalaccounting model developed specifically for the Finnish food chain. The model is based on production and environmental impact data from year 2005. The model considers both Finnish production and Finnish imports in addition to their transport. The targets of the evaluation were the environmental impacts, in 2005, stemming from production. Environmental impacts of the end-use phase were not assessed....

  13. Food and water security in a changing arctic climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Arctic, permafrost extends up to 500 m below the ground surface, and it is generally just the top metre that thaws in summer. Lakes, rivers, and wetlands on the arctic landscape are normally not connected with groundwater in the same way that they are in temperate regions. When the surface is frozen in winter, only lakes deeper than 2 m and rivers with significant flow retain liquid water. Surface water is largely abundant in summer, when it serves as a breeding ground for fish, birds, and mammals. In winter, many mammals and birds are forced to migrate out of the Arctic. Fish must seek out lakes or rivers deep enough to provide good overwintering habitat. Humans in the Arctic rely on surface water in many ways. Surface water meets domestic needs such as drinking, cooking, and cleaning as well as subsistence and industrial demands. Indigenous communities depend on sea ice and waterways for transportation across the landscape and access to traditional country foods. The minerals, mining, and oil and gas industries also use large quantities of surface water during winter to build ice roads and maintain infrastructure. As demand for this limited, but heavily-relied-upon resource continues to increase, it is now more critical than ever to understand the impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic

  14. Climate benefits and environmental challenges related to urban food systems

    OpenAIRE

    Verzandvoort, S.J.E.; Mol, G.; Meulen, van der, A.; Oostrom, van, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    In a short literature review, we have collected available knowledge on the potential benefits of urban agriculture, as part of local food systems, on climate change mitigation and adaptation. The effects of urban agriculture on climate change mitigation and adaptation depend on the type of agricultural practice (e.g. in greenhouses, in soil, in artificial substrates used resources) and the difference with previous land use (e.g. leading to an increase or decrease of sealed soil surface and gr...

  15. How will climate change affect mycotoxins in food?

    OpenAIRE

    Paterson, R. R. M.; Lima, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    This invited review and opinion piece, assesses the impact of climate change on mycotoxins in food: only one paper and an abstract referred directly from a substantial literature search and then only in relation to Europe. Climate change is an accepted probability by most scientists. Favourable temperature and water activity are crucial for mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin production. Fungal diseases of crops provide relevant information for pre-harvest mycotoxin contamination. H...

  16. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2012-04-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

  17. Climatic Extremes and Food Grain Production in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    A, A.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is likely to affect food and water security in India. India has witnessed tremendous growth in its food production after the green revolution. However, during the recent decades the food grain yields were significantly affected by the extreme climate and weather events. Air temperature and associated extreme events (number of hot days and hot nights, heat waves) increased significantly during the last 50 years in the majority of India. More remarkably, a substantial increase in mean and extreme temperatures was observed during the winter season in India. On the other hand, India witnessed extreme flood and drought events that have become frequent during the past few decades. Extreme rainfall during the non-monsoon season adversely affected the food grain yields and results in tremendous losses in several parts of the country. Here we evaluate the changes in hydroclimatic extremes and its linkage with the food grain production in India. We use observed food grain yield data for the period of 1980-2012 at district level. We understand the linkages between food grain yield and crop phenology obtained from the high resolution leaf area index and NDVI datasets from satellites. We used long-term observed data of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to evaluate changes in the extreme events. We use statistical models to develop relationships between crop yields, mean and extreme temperatures for various crops to understand the sensitivity of these crops towards changing climatic conditions. We find that some of the major crop types and predominant crop growing areas have shown a significant sensitivity towards changes in extreme climatic conditions in India.

  18. Limits to health adaptation in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

  19. Contributing to Food Security in the Context of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since the laboratories of the IAEA Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications were established in Seibersdorf in 1962, the world’s population has grown from 3.14 billion to 7.15 billion, which, combined with continuously increasing industrialization and economic development, has led to greater global food demand. This has placed substantial stress on natural resources as well as the agricultural production chain. The challenges to food safety and security have also been amplified by the impacts of climate change, which have global ramifications, as noted in the March 2014 report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change impacts include higher temperatures, drought, more frequent extreme weather events and increased soil salinity which can have severe effects on agricultural production. Helping Member States adapt to and mitigate these impacts is a main focus of the five laboratories of the Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture in Seibersdorf. These laboratories are dedicated to increasing food security and safety using nuclear science and technology

  20. The Acceptability Limit in Food Shelf Life Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzocco, Lara

    2016-07-26

    Despite its apparently intuitive nature, the acceptability limit is probably the most difficult parameter to be defined when developing a shelf life test. Although it dramatically affects the final shelf life value, it is surprising that discussion on its nature has been largely neglected in the literature and only rare indications about the possible methodologies for its determination are available in the literature. This is due to the fact that the definition of this parameter is a consumer- and market-oriented issue, requiring a rational evaluation of the potential negative consequences of food unacceptability in the actual market scenario. This paper critically analyzes the features of the acceptability limit and the role of the decision maker. The methodologies supporting the choice of the acceptability limit as well as acceptability limit values proposed in the literature to calculate shelf life of different foods are reviewed. PMID:26593702

  1. Functional food availability, a limitation to peoples’ health on Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Ndungu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Background:All foods are imported to markets in smaller islands in the Caribbean. Before export of foods to these destinations, the foods are subjected to several preservative procedures like irradiation, pesticide spray and prolonged refrigeration etc., to last the extended transport periods. This reduces availability of protective elements and the nutrient contents of the foods to scanty levels,especially to common people with low and middle incomes. Hence the majority of people in these categories on the small islands become vulnerable to ill health. Aims and Objectives: To assess 1. Food availability 2. Normal transport period for foods to reach from the suppliers, and 3. Current level of prevalence of non-infective chronic diseases in the area. Methods: Data were collected from two sources. One set of data was collected from the three supermarkets on the island to obtain information on source, transport time and nature of foods imported; and the second from 200 randomly selected responses of diseased persons for information on the age, gender and cause of death. Results: All the foods were imported and the time taken for the food (including protective foods to reach the island was about 3 weeks. The major causes of death were malignancy (30%, diabetes and its complications (25%, cardio vascular diseases (19.5%, STD / HIV (8.5% and other causes (17.0%. A review of prevalence of chronic diseases like hypertension, diabetes, heart diseases, arthritis and associated functional limitations, in the region reveals that their prevalence is proportionately high on the island compared to nearby developed mainland Functional Foods in Health and Disease 2011; 7:222-231 regions. Body mass index of ≥25 was reported to be as high as 58.3%. The health care facilitiesavailable are seen to be limited and public health activity to prevent or manage the prevailing chronic health issues, appeared to be meager. Conclusion: There is a need to address the

  2. Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Declan; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Deryng, Delphine; Dorling, Steve; Krueger, Tobias; Landman, Willem; Lankford, Bruce; Lebek, Karen; Osborn, Tim; Ringler, Claudia; Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Dalin, Carole

    2015-09-01

    In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven, for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and gross domestic product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose: the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water.

  3. US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact

  4. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered

  5. Climate mitigating information to consumers by food retailers

    OpenAIRE

    Spendrup, Sara

    2016-01-01

    Human food consumption contributes to climate change and changing consumption patterns towards a more vegetable-based diet could decrease GHG emissions. However, such change is difficult to achieve due to ingrained habits, cultural and social norms and culinary preferences, highlighting a need to understand consumer behaviour and find efficient strategies for communicating the issue within supermarkets. To encourage a change to a more vegetable-based diet, product development is necessar...

  6. Monitoring and Predicting the African Climate for Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiaw, W. M.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the greatest challenges in Africa due to its impact on access to sanitary water and food. In response to this challenge, the international community has mobilized to develop famine early warning systems (FEWS) to bring safe food and water to populations in need. Over the past several decades, much attention has focused on advance risk planning in agriculture and water. This requires frequent updates of weather and climate outlooks. This paper describes the active role of NOAA's African Desk in FEWS. Emphasis is on the operational products from short and medium range weather forecasts to subseasonal and seasonal outlooks in support of humanitarian relief programs. Tools to provide access to real time weather and climate information to the public are described. These include the downscaling of the U.S. National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) to improve seasonal forecasts in support of Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs). The subseasonal time scale has emerged as extremely important to many socio-economic sectors. Drawing from advances in numerical models that can now provide a better representation of the MJO, operational subseasonal forecasts are included in the African Desk product suite. These along with forecasts skill assessment and verifications are discussed. The presentation will also highlight regional hazards outlooks basis for FEWSNET food security outlooks.

  7. Potential contributions of food consumption patterns to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika; González, Alejandro D

    2009-05-01

    Anthropogenic warming is caused mainly by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, with agriculture as a main contributor for the latter 2 gases. Other parts of the food system contribute carbon dioxide emissions that emanate from the use of fossil fuels in transportation, processing, retailing, storage, and preparation. Food items differ substantially when GHG emissions are calculated from farm to table. A recent study of approximately 20 items sold in Sweden showed a span of 0.4 to 30 kg CO(2) equivalents/kg edible product. For protein-rich food, such as legumes, meat, fish, cheese, and eggs, the difference is a factor of 30 with the lowest emissions per kilogram for legumes, poultry, and eggs and the highest for beef, cheese, and pork. Large emissions for ruminants are explained mainly by methane emissions from enteric fermentation. For vegetables and fruits, emissions usually are foods rich in carbohydrates, such as potatoes, pasta, and wheat, are <1.1 kg/kg edible food. We suggest that changes in the diet toward more plant-based foods, toward meat from animals with little enteric fermentation, and toward foods processed in an energy-efficient manner offer an interesting and little explored area for mitigating climate change. PMID:19339402

  8. Compliance of feed limits, does not mean compliance of food limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Raamsdonk LWD.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is an important aspect of the animal production chain. For a proper containment, limits for feed as well food products are fixed for a series of chemicals, e.g. dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs, lead, cadmium, some chlorinated pesticides, and aflatoxin B1 (and its metabolite M1 in milk. The relationship between feed and food limits is an important issue. An ideal goal is to assure that compliance to a feed limits automatically results in compliance to food limits. In order to collect information about this relationship, several simulation models and a large database on transfer factors have been developed. An optimal choice between either a model or an application of data from the Transfer Database is based on both the knowledge level, and on the circumstances of the specific situation. To reach and validate such an optimal choice an Expert System Carry-Over is currently in development, containing four different modules: 1 the different calculation models and the Transfer Database, 2 a decision tree for choosing the optimal strategy, 3 data tables indicating knowledge levels of compound/animal/product parameters, and 4 supporting databases containing information on consumption and composition of daily diets, animal parameters, and amounts of (daily production. Calculations indicate that for dioxins compliance to feed levels does not necessarily mean that food limits are complied as well. Besides an estimation of the compliance to limits, the expert system is a tool for feed related risk assessments, and for planning of future research.

  9. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

    2016-01-01

    Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity—non-random structural patterns of ecological networks—influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities. PMID:27322185

  10. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Takemoto

    Full Text Available Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming, whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  11. Climate change, vulnerability and the local adaptation strategies of food enterprises in Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Puupponen, Antti

    2015-01-01

    This chapter discusses vulnerability and the adaptation strategies of Finnish food supply chains in the context of climate change. A case study was conducted in 2012 within three Finnish regions. The people interviewed were food entrepreneurs, the managers of food enterprises and relevant stakeholders. According to the study, food enterprises seem to trust local and decentralised food supply chains as an adaptation strategy for combating climate change. Hence, the case study di...

  12. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  13. Climate change and its effect on world food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In February of 1972 earth-orbiting artificial satellites revealed the existence of a greatly increased area of the snow and ice cover of the north polar cap as compared to all previous years of space age observations. Some scientists believe that this may have presaged the onset of the dramatic climate anomalies of 1972 that brought far-reaching adversities to the world's peoples. Moreover, there is mounting evidence that the bad climate of 1972 may be the forerunner of a long series of less favorable agricultural crop years that lie ahead for most world societies. Thus widespread food shortages threaten just at the same time that world populations are growing to new highs. Indeed, less favorable climate may be the new global norm. The Earth may have entered a new 'little ice age'. Perhaps this future period will not be so extreme as that around 1700 AD, but it seems likely, at least, to be a cooler period resembling the hemispheric climatic regimes of the period from 1880-1920. (author)

  14. Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

    2014-12-01

    The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the

  15. Monitoring of antimicrobial resistance among food animals: Principles and limitations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarestrup, Frank Møller

    2004-01-01

    Large amounts of antimicrobial agents are in the production of food animals used for therapy and prophylactics of bacterial infections and in feed to promote growth. The use of antimicrobial agents causes problems in the therapy of infections through the selection for resistance among bacteria...... pathogenic for animals or humans. Current knowledge regarding the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in food animals, the quantitative impact of the use of different antimicrobial agents on selection for resistance and the most appropriate treatment regimes to limit the development of resistance is...... major differences between programmes designed to detect changes in a national population, individual herds or groups of animals. In addition, programmes have to be designed differently according to whether the aim is to determine changes in resistance for all antimicrobial agents or only the...

  16. Towards food, feed and energy crops mitigating climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philippot, Laurent; Hallin, Sara

    2011-09-01

    Agriculture is an important source of anthropogenic emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG), methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O), and crops can affect the microbial processes controlling these emissions in many ways. Here, we summarize the current knowledge of plant-microbe interactions in relation to the CH(4) and N(2)O budgets and show how this is promoting new generations of crop cultivars that have the potential to mitigate GHG emissions for future agricultural use. The possibility of breeding low GHG-emitting cultivars is a paradigm shift towards sustainable agriculture that balances climate change and food and bioenergy security. PMID:21700487

  17. Limits to the quantification of local climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Sandra C.; Stainforth, David A.; Watkins, Nicholas W.

    2015-09-01

    We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations. Maps of such changes, for a variety of hydrologically-relevant, threshold-dependent metrics, are presented. In places in Scotland, for instance, the total precipitation on heavy rainfall days in winter has increased by more than 50%, but only in some locations has this been accompanied by a substantial increase in total seasonal precipitation; an important distinction for water and land management. These results are important for the presentation of scientific data by climate services, as a benchmark requirement for models which are used to provide projections on local scales, and for process-based climate and impacts research to understand local modulation of synoptic and global scale climate. They are a critical foundation for adaptation planning and for the scientific provision of locally relevant information about future climate.

  18. Forests in a water limited world under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Sun, Ge

    2014-08-01

    The debate on ecological and climatic benefits of planted forests at the sensitive dry edge of the closed forest belt (i.e. at the ‘xeric limits’) is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, accumulate biomass, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously dominated by grassland or cropland can dramatically alter the energy and water balances at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts and growing extremes due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. We investigated some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of forests and potential impacts of climate change at the dryland margins of the temperate-continental zone using case studies from China, the United States and SE Europe (Hungary). We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effects of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of forestation on water resources might be negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events is likely to reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest management and forestation planning should be adjusted to the local, projected hydrologic and climatic conditions, and should also consider non-forest alternative land uses.

  19. Forests in a water limited world under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The debate on ecological and climatic benefits of planted forests at the sensitive dry edge of the closed forest belt (i.e. at the ‘xeric limits’) is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, accumulate biomass, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously dominated by grassland or cropland can dramatically alter the energy and water balances at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts and growing extremes due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. We investigated some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of forests and potential impacts of climate change at the dryland margins of the temperate-continental zone using case studies from China, the United States and SE Europe (Hungary). We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effects of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of forestation on water resources might be negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events is likely to reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest management and forestation planning should be adjusted to the local, projected hydrologic and climatic conditions, and should also consider non-forest alternative land uses. (paper)

  20. Comparing food limitation among three stages of nesting: supplementation experiments with the burrowing owl

    OpenAIRE

    Troy I. Wellicome; Danielle Todd, L; Poulin, Ray G; Holroyd, Geoffrey L; Fisher, Ryan J

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Food availability is an important limiting factor for avian reproduction. In altricial birds, food limitation is assumed to be more severe during the nestling stage than during laying or incubation, but this has yet to be adequately tested. Using food-supplementation experiments over a 5-year period, we determined the degree and timing of food limitation for burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breeding in Canada. Burrowing owls are an endangered species and food limitation during the...

  1. Climate change has limited impact on soil-mantled landsliding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Robert; Hales, Tristram; Mudd, Simon; Grieve, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Projected increases in future storminess, associated with anthropogenically-driven climate change, are expected to produce an increase in landslide frequency and hazards. This prediction relies on an implicit and poorly tested assumption, that landslide frequency is limited by the effectiveness of landslide triggers (pore-pressure events determined by the intensity and duration of storms). Using an unprecedented field dataset of hillslope soil depths and ages (attained through radiocarbon dating) from the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), we show that this assumption is not valid in this landscape. Instead, landslide frequency is limited by rates of soil production and transport processes, which prepare sites for future landsliding. By simulating the evolution of Appalachian hillslopes, we demonstrate that unless climate change can drive an increase in soil production and transport rates, an increase in future storminess will have little effect on long-term landslide frequency, while individual storms will trigger fewer and smaller landslides.

  2. Nonautonomous Food-Limited Fishery Model With Adaptive Harvesting

    CERN Document Server

    Idels, L V

    2010-01-01

    We will introduce the biological motivation of the $\\gamma$- food-limited model with variable parameters. New criteria are established for the existence and global stability of positive periodic solutions. To prove the existence of steady-state solutions, we used the upper-lower solution method where the existence of at least one positive periodic solution is obtained by constructing a pair of upper and lower solutions and application of the Friedreichs Theorem. Numerical simulations illustrate effects of periodic variation in the values of the basic biological and environmental parameters and how the adaptive harvesting strategies affect fishing stocks.

  3. The role for scientists in tackling food insecurity and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beddington John R

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract To adapt to climate change and ensure food security, major interventions are required to transform current patterns and practices of food production, distribution and consumption. The scientific community has an essential role to play in informing concurrent, strategic investments to establish climate-resilient agricultural production systems, minimize greenhouse gas emissions, make efficient use of resources, develop low-waste supply chains, ensure adequate nutrition, encourage healthy eating choices and develop a global knowledge system for sustainability. This paper outlines scientific contributions that will be essential to the seven policy recommendations for achieving food security in the context of climate change put forward by the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change. These include improved understanding of agriculture’s vulnerability to climate change, food price dynamics, food waste and consumption patterns and monitoring technologies as well as multidisciplinary investigation of regionally appropriate responses to climate change and food security challenges.

  4. Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

  5. Limited potential of crop management for mitigating surface ozone impacts on global food supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Edmar; Fischer, Guenther; van Velthuizen, Harrij; van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank; Mills, Gina; Walter, Christof; Ewert, Frank

    2011-05-01

    Surface ozone (O 3) is a potent phytotoxic air pollutant that reduces the productivity of agricultural crops. Growing use of fossil fuel and climate change are increasing O 3 concentrations to levels that threaten food supply. Historically, farmers have successfully adapted agricultural practices to cope with changing environments. However, high O 3 concentrations are a new threat to food production and possibilities for adaptation are not well understood. We simulate the impact of ozone damage on four key crops (wheat, maize, rice and soybean) on a global scale and assess the effectiveness of adaptation of agricultural practices to minimize ozone damage. As O 3 concentrations have a strong seasonal and regional pattern, the adaptation options assessed refer to shifting crop calendars through changing sowing dates, applying irrigation and using crop varieties with different growth cycles. Results show that China, India and the United States are currently by far the most affected countries, bearing more than half of all global losses and threatened areas. Irrigation largely affects ozone exposure but local impacts depend on the seasonality of emissions and climate. Shifting crop calendars can reduce regional O 3 damage for specific crop-location combinations (e.g. up to 25% for rain-fed soybean in India) but has little implication at the global level. Considering the limited benefits of adaptation, mitigation of O 3 precursors remains the main option to secure regional and global food production.

  6. Shaping agricultural innovation systems responsive to food insecurity and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Brooks, Sally Heather; Loevinsohn, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and variability present new challenges for agriculture, particularly for smallholder farmers who continue to be the mainstay of food production in developing countries. Recent global food crises have exposed the structural vulnerability of globalized agri-food systems, highlighting climate change as just one of a complex set of environmental, demographic, social and economic drivers generating instability and food insecurity, the impacts of which disproportionately affect poore...

  7. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  8. Limits to Ambulatory Displacement of Coconut Mites in Absence and Presence of Food-Related Cues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.W.S. Melo; D.B. Lima; M.W. Sabelis; A. Pallini; M.G.C. Gondim Jr.

    2014-01-01

    Ambulatory movement of plant-feeding mites sets limits to the distances they can cover to reach a new food source. In absence of food-related cues these limits are determined by survival, walking activity, walking path tortuosity and walking speed, whereas in presence of food the limits are also det

  9. Do limiting factors at Alaskan treelines shift with climatic regimes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trees at Alaskan treelines are assumed to be limited by temperature and to expand upslope and/or to higher latitudes with global warming. However, recent studies describe negative temperature responses and drought stress of Alaskan treeline trees in recent decades. In this study, we have analyzed the responses of treeline white spruce to temperature and precipitation according to different climatic regimes in Alaska, described as negative (cool) and positive (warm) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We found that in three consecutive phases (positive from 1925–46, negative from 1947–76, and positive again from 1977–98), the growth responses to temperature and precipitation differed markedly. Before 1947, in a phase of warm winters and with summer temperatures being close to the century mean, the trees at most sites responded positively to summer temperature, as one would expect from treeline trees at northern high latitudes. Between 1947 and 1976, a phase of cold winters and average summers, the trees showed similar responses, but a new pattern of negative responses to the summer temperature of the year prior to growth coupled with positive responses to the precipitation in the same year emerged at some sites. As the precipitation was relatively low at those sites, we assume that drought stress might have played a role. However, the climate responses were not uniform but were modified by regional gradients (trees at northern sites responded more often to temperature than trees at southern sites) and local site conditions (forest trees responded more often to precipitation than treeline trees), possibly reflecting differences in energy and water balance across regions and sites, respectively. However, since the shift in the PDO in 1976 from a negative to a positive phase, the trees’ climate–growth responses are much less pronounced and climate seems to have lost its importance as a limiting factor for the growth of treeline white spruce. If

  10. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  11. The Climate Change and Economic Impacts of Food Waste in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Venkat, Kumar

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzes the climate change and economic impacts of food waste in the United States. Using loss-adjusted national food availability data for 134 food commodities, it calculates the greenhouse gas emissions due to wasted food using life cycle assessment and the economic cost of the waste using retail prices. The analysis shows that avoidable food waste in the US exceeds 55 million metric tonnes per year, nearly 29% of annual production. This waste produces life-cycle greenhouse gas ...

  12. Building a municipal food policy regime in Minneapolis: implications for urban climate governance

    OpenAIRE

    Jane E Shey; David Belis

    2013-01-01

    With this paper we analyze Minneapolis’s urban food policy regime and attempt to make a case for applying urban regime theory (URT) to study climate change governance at the municipal level. In 2008 Minneapolis launched Homegrown Minneapolis, a multiple stakeholder initiative bringing together local government actors, businesses, and NGOs to build a sustainable and local food system. As the link between food systems and climate change is increasingly acknowledged in the literature, the analys...

  13. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  14. Sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply. Political and legal challenges of the 21th century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The book on sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply as political challenges in the 21th century includes contributions on the following topics: sustainability and environment, energy and climatic change, agriculture and world food supply.

  15. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:24518587

  16. Local food security initiatives: systemic limitations in Vancouver, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Wong, Alfred; Hallsworth, Alan

    2016-01-01

    This paper approaches the topic of urban/community gardening not through the lens of urban theory per se but in light of basic farming realities such as growing season and land availability. Food security comprises availability and affordability. In the context of North American and Western European societies, only food affordability normally merits public discourse. In practice, governments have little or no means to change food affordability, in view of prevailing capitalistic free-market s...

  17. The estimation of annual limit on intake for tritiated food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tritium incorporation into tissues and DNA of mice was studied after daily ingestion of tritiated food or tritiated water. The tritiated food used was a commercial preparation mixed with brine shrimp which had been reared in tritiated sea water. After ingestion of tritiated food or water for up to 22 d, the specific activity of tritium in tissues was measured as tissue-free-water tritium, tissue-bound tritium and DNA-bound tritium. In order to compare the tritium intake from food with that from water, 14C-glucose was added to food and drinking water. The specific activity of tritium of tissues obtained was then corrected by the specific activity of 14C in tissues in order to analyse the tritium incorporation from the same amount of ingested food and water. DNA-bound tritium after the ingestion of tritiated food was 4.6 times higher than that of tritiated water, while tissue-bound tritium was 2.2 times higher. The radiation dose to liver from tritium incorporated through food was two-fold higher than through tritiated water, which was mainly due to the high incorporation of tritium into DNA. Our results demonstrated that the dose calculation based on tissue-free-water tritium alone would underestimate the radiation exposure of the human population exposed to tritiated food. (author)

  18. Climate change impacts on body size and food web structure on mountain ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Lurgi, Miguel; López, Bernat C.; Montoya, José M.

    2012-01-01

    The current distribution of climatic conditions will be rearranged on the globe. To survive, species will have to keep pace with climates as they move. Mountains are among the most affected regions owing to both climate and land-use change. Here, we explore the effects of climate change in the vertebrate food web of the Pyrenees. We investigate elevation range expansions between two time-periods illustrative of warming conditions, to assess: (i) the taxonomic composition of range expanders; (...

  19. Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easterling, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

  20. Structural and psycho-social limits to climate change adaptation in the great barrier reef region

    OpenAIRE

    Louisa S. Evans; Hicks, Christina C.; W Neil Adger; Jon Barnett; Allison L Perry; Pedro Fidelman; Renae Tobin

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder...

  1. Outstanding challenges limiting the development of climate services in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buontempo, Carlo; Soares, Marta Bruno; Liggins, Felicity

    2016-04-01

    Climate services attempt to make the available (or forthcoming) climate knowledge more usable by decision and policy makers in the development of a climate smart society. Since the launch of the Global Framework for Climate Services in 2009 there has been an exponential increase in investment in the development and delivery of climate services, leading to an array of projects and initiatives across Europe. However, to date little attention has been given to understanding the different ways in which climate services are defined, implemented, and evaluated in Europe. In addition, other aspects such as how to pursue the necessary processes of co-production, which business models to apply, and the implications for the careers of scientists and others involved in the development of climate services are also crucial elements that need to be further examined and discussed. Such aspects are critical to the future development of climate services as they have the potential to significantly constrain the growth of climate services in Europe. Starting from a set of questions that have arisen within some of the most prominent climate services projects and initiatives in Europe, our paper highlights and expands on the outstanding challenges that need to be resolved by both the scientific community and the funders in order to ensure climate services can prosper and grow in Europe.

  2. America's Climate Choices: Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, A.; Fri, R.; Brown, M.; Geller, L.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a study on strategies for limiting the magnitude of future climate change (i.e. mitigation). Limiting climate change is a global effort that will require significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by countries around the world. U.S. action alone is not sufficient, but it is clearly necessary for the U.S. to make significant contributions to the global effort. While efforts to limit climate change are already underway across the U.S. (by state and local governments, businesses, non-governmental organizations, and individual households), we currently lack a framework of federal policies to help assure that all key actors participating and working towards coherent national goals. This study recommends a U.S. policy goal stated as a budget for cumulative greenhouse gas emissions through the year 2050, and offers an illustrative range of budget numbers derived from recent work of the Energy Modeling Forum. The report evaluates the types of changes to our nation's energy system that are needed to meet a budget in the proposed range, which leads to a conclusion that the U.S. must get started now in aggressively pursuing available emission reduction opportunities, while also investing heavily in R&D to create new emission reduction opportunities. The study offers a series of recommendations for how to move ahead in pursing these near-term and longer-term opportunities. The recommendations address the need for a carbon pricing system and strategically-targeted complimentary policies, for effective international engagement, for careful balancing of federal with state/local action, and for consideration of equity and employment impacts of response policies. The study also discusses the need to design policies that are both durable over the

  3. Shell Canada Limited 2001 Voluntary climate change : Action plan update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is an important issue and Shell Canada Limited (Shell), as one of the largest integrated petroleum companies in Canada, is committed to continue its efforts with governments and other sectors of society in policy debate toward implementing responsible initiatives to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reductions. For the period 2001 to 2008, Shell is striving to achieve a further reduction of six per cent of 1990 levels through the development and implementation of energy efficiency projects. The latest technologies will be implemented in the case of new business ventures. Low sulphur synthetic crude oil with six per cent fewer greenhouse gas emissions than the imported crude oil mix that will be displaced by this source is targeted for the Athabasca Oil Sands Project. Funding to various groups concerned with improving the environment will be provided. An important performance element will continue to be greenhouse gas management. Efforts will be expanded toward the development and promotion of of emission accounting, trading and recognition for early action. Shell will participate in research specifically related to the petroleum industry. The major initiatives were highlighted in this document. 7 figs

  4. The role for scientists in tackling food insecurity and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Beddington John R; Asaduzzaman Mohammed; Clark Megan E; Bremauntz Adrian; Guillou Marion D; Jahn Molly M; Lin Erda; Mamo Tekalign; Negra Christine; Nobre Carlos A; Scholes Robert J; Sharma Rita; Van Bo Nguyen; Wakhungu Judi

    2012-01-01

    Abstract To adapt to climate change and ensure food security, major interventions are required to transform current patterns and practices of food production, distribution and consumption. The scientific community has an essential role to play in informing concurrent, strategic investments to establish climate-resilient agricultural production systems, minimize greenhouse gas emissions, make efficient use of resources, develop low-waste supply chains, ensure adequate nutrition, encourage heal...

  5. The economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chuen Khee, Pek; Yet Mee, Lim; Chee Keong, Choong

    2011-01-01

    This study estimates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia. The contingent valuation technique is employed on 456 randomly selected households in the vicinities of Selangor Darul Ehsan. The study finds that climate change mitigation programmes to ensure food security are important. The public is willing to pay extra rice price in substitution of a rice subsidy reduction impact for the mitigation programmes. More specifically, the study ascertains that households o...

  6. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki;

    2013-01-01

    attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years(2......-4). Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33 of the harvested area...... of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop-rice and wheat yields were the most...

  7. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of spatiotemporal maize-area dynamics across the northern limit for maize production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith; Dalgaard, Tommy;

    2011-01-01

    It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here, we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial...... warmed, allowing maize production also in northern locations with high cattle density. Similarly, the association of maize cultivation with sandy soils has decreased over the study period, again consistent with a decreasing overall climatic limitation. Thereby, reflecting an interactive effect of...... climatic and non-climatic factors on the maize area dynamics. Our results show that even the relatively small climate changes that have been realized in the last decades have been partly driving the spatiotemporal dynamics of an important agricultural crop towards its northern cultivation limit in Europe....

  8. Linking human health, climate change, and food security through ecological-based sanitation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryals, R.; Kramer, S.; Porder, S.; Andersen, G. L.

    2015-12-01

    Ensuring access to clean, safe sanitation for the world's population remains a challenging, yet critical, global sustainability goal. Ecological-based sanitation (EcoSan) technology is a promising strategy for improving sanitation, particularly in areas where financial resources and infrastructure are limiting. The composting of human waste and its use as an agricultural soil amendment can tackle three important challenges in developing countries - providing improved sanitation for vulnerable communities, reducing the spread of intestinal-born pathogens, and returning nutrients and organic matter to degraded agricultural soils. The extent of these benefits and potential tradeoffs are not well known, but have important implications for the widespread adoption of this strategy to promote healthy communities and enhance food security. We quantified the effects of EcoSan on the climate and human health in partnership with Sustainable Organic Integrated Livelihoods (SOIL) in Haiti. We measured greenhouse gas emissions (nitrous oxide, methane, and carbon dioxide) from compost piles that ranged in age from 0 to 14 months (i.e. finished) from two compost facilities managed with or without cement lining. We also measured emissions from a government-operated waste treatment pond and a grass field where waste has been illegally dumped. The highest methane emissions were observed from the anaerobic waste pond, whereas the dump site and compost piles had higher nitrous oxide emissions. Net greenhouse gases (CO2-equivalents) from unlined compost piles were 8x lower than lined compost piles and 20 and 30x lower than the dump and waste pond, respectively. We screened finished compost for fecal pathogens using bacterial 16S sequencing. Bacterial pathogens were eliminated regardless of the type of composting process. Pilot trials indicate that the application of compost to crops has a large potential for increasing food production. This research suggests that EcoSan systems are

  9. Effects of climate on size structure and functioning of aquatic food webs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lacerot, G.

    2010-01-01

    In aquatic food webs, the role of body size is notoriously strong. It is also well known that temperature has an effect on body size. For instance, Bergmann’s rule states that body size increases from warm to cold climates. This thesis addresses the question how climate shapes the size structure of

  10. Cyclodextrins in Food Technology and Human Nutrition: Benefits and Limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenyvesi, É; Vikmon, M; Szente, L

    2016-09-01

    Cyclodextrins are tasteless, odorless, nondigestible, noncaloric, noncariogenic saccharides, which reduce the digestion of carbohydrates and lipids. They have low glycemic index and decrease the glycemic index of the food. They are either non- or only partly digestible by the enzymes of the human gastrointestinal (GI) tract and fermented by the gut microflora. Based on these properties, cyclodextrins are dietary fibers useful for controlling the body weight and blood lipid profile. They are prebiotics, improve the intestinal microflora by selective proliferation of bifidobacteria. These antiobesity and anti-diabetic effects make them bioactive food supplements and nutraceuticals. In this review, these features are evaluated for α-, β- and γ-cyclodextrins, which are the cyclodextrin variants approved by authorities for food applications. The mechanisms behind these effects are reviewed together with the applications as solubilizers, stabilizers of dietary lipids, such as unsaturated fatty acids, phytosterols, vitamins, flavonoids, carotenoids and other nutraceuticals. The recent applications of cyclodextrins for reducing unwanted components, such as trans-fats, allergens, mycotoxins, acrylamides, bitter compounds, as well as in smart active packaging of foods are also overviewed. PMID:25764389

  11. Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection

    OpenAIRE

    Ferdous Ahmed; Abul Quasem Al-Amin; Zeeda Fatimah Mohamad; Santha Chenayah

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic v...

  12. Climate change, rural livelihoods and agriculture (focus on food security) in Asia-Pacific region

    OpenAIRE

    S. Mahendra Dev

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge for agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods for billions of people including the poor in the Asia-Pacific region. Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate change due to its high dependence on climate and weather and because people involved in agriculture tend to be poorer compared with urban residents. More than 60 per cent of the population is directly or indirectly relying on agriculture as a source of livelihood in this region. Agric...

  13. Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and its Impacts on the Food Industry: A General Equilibrium Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ludena, Carlos E.; Mejia, Carla

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the impacts of climate change of food processing sectors worldwide. Specifically, we analyze the impacts that changes in agricultural productivity might have for seven food industry sectors, namely meat, vegetable oils and fats, dairy, sugar, processed rice, other food products and beverage and tobacco products. We analyze two different scenarios of crops yield changes based on Müller et al. (2009), one with full CO2 fertilization and one without CO2 fertilization. We use ...

  14. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niiranen, S.; Yletyinen, J.; Tomczak, M.T.;

    2013-01-01

    approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional...... biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the...

  15. The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Soil Properties and Processes and Corresponding Influence on Food Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric C. Brevik

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC, global temperatures are expected to increase between 1.1 and 6.4 °C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered. Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Because of this, altered climate will have an effect on soil processes and properties. Recent studies indicate at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric C, lowering soil organic matter levels. Soil erosion by wind and water is also likely to increase. However, there are many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the N cycle and, in turn, how that will affect C storage in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of how erosion processes will be influenced by changes in climate. The response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like N and P, and how that will influence soil organic matter levels, is another critical research need. How soil organic matter levels react to changes in the C and N cycles will influence the ability of soils to support crop growth, which has significant ramifications for food security. Therefore, further study of soil-climate interactions in a changing world is critical to addressing future food security concerns.

  16. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture's mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.

  17. Characterizing tradeoffs between water and food under different climate regimes across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, T.; Zhu, X.; Kipgen, C.; Li, X.; Pal, I.

    2015-12-01

    As water demand approaches or exceeds the available water supply in many regions of the globe, water stress will become increasingly prevalent with potentially necessary tradeoffs required between water prioritization amongst sectors. Agriculture is the largest consumptive water user in the US, and irrigation plays a vital role in ensuring a stable food supply by buffering against climate extremes. However, it also plays a negative role in inducing water stress in many regions. Much research has focused on reducing agricultural water use, but this needs to be complemented by better quantifying the benefit of irrigation on crop yields under a range of climate conditions. Regions are identified with significant irrigation benefits with and without water stress to parse apart the role of climate, crop choice, and water usage to then evaluate tradeoffs with food production in a climate-water-food nexus.

  18. Marketing Strategy for the International Food Shop Keidas : Marketing Strategy: Keidas Food Shop or Intercultural Corporation Limited Liability Company

    OpenAIRE

    Reh, Plyah

    2013-01-01

    Abstract This research for the study of the marketing strategy has been prepared for the Keidas food shop or Intercultural Corporation limited liability Company. This thesis aims to explore the opportunities and possibilities that the company could achieve with an effective and efficient marketing strategy in the future. The oriental food shop has great potential to serve a large Finnish customer base in the Kymenlaakso area, but due to a lack of a marketing strategy, the company has fa...

  19. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in the Food Industry—Insights from Product Carbon and Water Footprints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley Ridoutt

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity that needs to be considered in business strategy. For firms in the food industry, many of the important climate impacts are not directly related to food processing so a value chain approach to adaptation is recommended. However, there is a general lack of operational tools to support this. In this study, carbon and water footprints were conducted at a low-precision screening level in three case studies in Australia: Smith’s potato chips, OneHarvest Calypso™ mango and selected Treasury Wine Estates products. The approach was cost-effective when compared to high-definition studies intended to support environmental labels and declarations, yet provided useful identification of physical, financial, regulatory and reputational hotspots related to climate change. A combination of diagnostic footprinting, downscaled climate projection and semi-quantitative value chain analysis is proposed as a practical and relevant toolkit to inform climate adaptation strategies.

  20. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-10-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

  1. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: water efficiency and climate signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan

    2016-01-01

    Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in southern Africa is particularly high. The associated drought and flood risks, combined with a largely rain-fed agriculture, pose a challenge for water and food security in the region. As regional collaboration strengthens through the Southern Africa Development Community and trade with other regions increases, it is thus important to understand both how climate variability affects agricultural productivity and how food trade (regional and extra-regional) can contribute to the region's capacity to deal with climate-related shocks. We combine global hydrological model simulations with international food trade data to quantify the water resources embedded in international food trade in southern Africa and with the rest of the world, from 1986-2011. We analyze the impacts of socio-economic changes and climatic variability on agricultural trade and embedded water resources during this period. We find that regional food trade is efficient in terms of water use but may be unsustainable because water-productive exporters, like South Africa, rely on increasingly stressed water resources. The role of imports from the rest of the world in the region's food supply is important, in particular during severe droughts. This reflects how trade can efficiently redistribute water resources across continents in response to a sudden gap in food production. In a context of regional and global integration, our results highlight opportunities for improved water-efficiency and sustainability of the region's food supply via trade.

  2. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  3. The Interconnected Challenges for Food Security from a Food Regimes Perspective: Energy, Climate and Malconsumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sage, Colin

    2013-01-01

    Recent experience of food price volatility in global markets encourages closer examination of the dynamics underlying the global food system and reveals a range of contingent factors. Meanwhile a common thread of many recent expert reports has emphasised the need to intensify agricultural production to double food output by 2050. Drawing upon a…

  4. Geophysical Tools, Challenges and Perspectives Related to Natural Hazards, Climate Change and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fucugauchi, J. U.

    2013-05-01

    In the coming decades a changing climate and natural hazards will likely increase the vulnerability of agricultural and other food production infrastructures, posing increasing treats to industrialized and developing economies. While food security concerns affect us globally, the huge differences among countries in stocks, population size, poverty levels, economy, technologic development, transportation, health care systems and basic infrastructure will pose a much larger burden on populations in the developing and less developed world. In these economies, increase in the magnitude, duration and frequency of droughts, floods, hurricanes, rising sea levels, heat waves, thunderstorms, freezing events and other phenomena will pose severe costs on the population. For this presentation, we concentrate on a geophysical perspective of the problems, tools available, challenges and short and long-term perspectives. In many instances, a range of natural hazards are considered as unforeseen catastrophes, which suddenly affect without warning, resulting in major losses. Although the forecasting capacity in the different situations arising from climate change and natural hazards is still limited, there are a range of tools available to assess scenarios and forecast models for developing and implementing better mitigation strategies and prevention programs. Earth observation systems, geophysical instrumental networks, satellite observatories, improved understanding of phenomena, expanded global and regional databases, geographic information systems, higher capacity for computer modeling, numerical simulations, etc provide a scientific-technical framework for developing strategies. Hazard prevention and mitigation programs will result in high costs globally, however major costs and challenges concentrate on the less developed economies already affected by poverty, famines, health problems, social inequalities, poor infrastructure, low life expectancy, high population growth

  5. Feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and the limits of linear models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugenstein, M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-12-01

    The term "feedback" is used ubiquitously in climate research, but implies varied meanings in different contexts. From a specific process that locally affects a quantity, to a formal framework that attempts to determine a global response to a forcing, researchers use this term to separate, simplify, and quantify parts of the complex Earth system. We combine large (>120 member) ensemble GCM and EMIC step forcing simulations over a broad range of forcing levels with a historical and educational perspective to organize existing ideas around feedbacks and linear forcing-feedback models. With a new method overcoming internal variability and initial condition problems we quantify the non-constancy of the climate feedback parameter. Our results suggest a strong state- and forcing-dependency of feedbacks, which is not considered appropriately in many studies. A non-constant feedback factor likely explains some of the differences in estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity from different methods and types of data. We discuss implications for the definition of the forcing term and its various adjustments. Clarifying the value and applicability of the linear forcing feedback framework and a better quantification of feedbacks on various timescales and spatial scales remains a high priority in order to better understand past and predict future changes in the climate system.

  6. On the Vulnerability of Water Limited Ecosystems to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly K. Caylor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Society is facing growing environmental problems that require new research efforts to understand the way ecosystems operate and survive, and their mutual relationships with the hydrologic cycle. In this respect, ecohydrology suggests a renewed interdisciplinary approach that aims to provide a better comprehension of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems. With this aim, a coupled hydrological/ecological model is adopted to describe simultaneously vegetation pattern evolution and hydrological water budget at the basin scale using as test site the Upper Rio Salado basin (Sevilleta, NM, USA. The hydrological analyses have been carried out using a recently formulated framework for the water balance at the daily level linked with a spatial model for the description of the spatial organization of vegetation. This enables quantitatively assessing the effects on soil water availability on future climatic scenarios. Results highlighted that the relationship between climatic forcing (water availability and vegetation patterns is strongly non-linear. This implies, under some specific conditions which depend on the ecosystem characteristics, small changes in climatic conditions may produce significant transformation of the vegetation patterns.

  7. THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF FOOD STANDARD DETERMINATION: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE FROM MAXIMUM RESIDUE LIMITS

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yuan; Xiong, Bo; Beghin, John C.

    2013-01-01

    Food safety standards have proliferated as multilateral and bilateral trade agreements constrain traditional barriers to agricultural trade. Stringent food standards can be driven by rising consumer and public concern about food safety and other social objectives, or by the lobbying efforts from domestic industries in agriculture. We investigate the economic and political determinants of the maximum residue limits (MRLs) on pesticides and veterinary drugs. Using a political economy framework ...

  8. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Hannah

    Full Text Available International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  9. A Practical Guide for Estimating Dietary Fat and Fiber Using Limited Food Frequency Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neale, Anne Victoria; And Others

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for estimating daily intake of dietary fat and fiber based on limited food frequency data. The procedure, which relies on National Food Consumption Survey data and daily consumption rates, can provide baseline estimates of dietary patterns for health promotion policymakers. (SLD)

  10. Climate Change and Groundwater-Implications for Global Food and Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M. D.; Earman, S.; Funk, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    total precipitation fall at temperatures just below freezing historically. Other areas with large-scale groundwater overdrafts, including parts of Northern Africa, Mexico, South Africa and Australia, are also areas where recent history and climate projections indicate declining precipitation amounts. Thus, many areas where climate change threatens to change and possibly diminish groundwater sources are also areas where massive groundwater overdrafts are being used to meet critical demands for irrigation and agriculture. Disruption of groundwater recharge in these areas would only hasten the overdrafts and eventual limits on groundwater-based irrigation supplies. The climate-change/groundwater nexus is likely adding significant new risks to food and water security globally.

  11. Climate Change and Food Security: The View from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2012-01-01

    Global satellite data provides information on land use, rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation vigor and crop yields. Process-based products allows transformation of these data into information that can be used to assess impact of weather on commodity prices and local economic health. Trends and impact of climate change

  12. Urban adaptation planning: the use and limits of climate science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodman, David; Carmin, Joann

    2011-11-15

    Cities face a mounting challenge from climate change. In developed and developing countries alike, rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, higher sea levels, and more frequent and severe extreme events such as droughts and floods threaten to overwhelm urban infrastructure, services and management systems. City officials recognise the need to adapt to climate change, and use scientific evidence to support their plans for doing so. But the precise details of these changes and the local impacts they will have cannot be predicted. Decision makers must learn to draw on scientific data while simultaneously managing the uncertainty inherent in future projections. Across the world, forward-looking city officials are proving themselves to be 'urban adaptation leaders' — mobilising political and public support for and devising flexible approaches to adaptation.

  13. The Impact of 850,000 Years of Climate Changes on the Structure and Dynamics of Mammal Food Webs

    OpenAIRE

    Hedvig K Nenzén; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara

    2014-01-01

    Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed...

  14. Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Manoj

    2016-08-01

    In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of

  15. Examining cassava's potential to enhance food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent advances in the biofortification of cassava, a substantial yield gap and cassava's potential for increased productivity and its inherent potential to respond positively to globally increasing CO2 are synergistic and encouraging in an otherwise bleak global view of the future of food security ...

  16. Facing climate change by securing water for food, livelihoods and ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Fraiture, C. de; Smakhtin, V.; D Bossio; McCornick, P.; C Hoanh; Noble, A; Molden, D.; F Gichuki; Giordano, M; Finlayson, M.; H Turral

    2007-01-01

    Future changes in water availability due to climate change (CC) are of paramount importance for food security of millions of rural people worldwide. Many recent extremes of water shortage followed by devastating floods reflect some of the climate change predictions, which are gradually becoming more certain and alarming. Appropriate measures in agricultural water management can greatly reduce poor people’s vulnerability to CC by reducing water related risks and creating buffers against often ...

  17. Managing Climatic Risks to Combat Land Degradation and Enhance Food security: Key Information Needs

    OpenAIRE

    P. K. Aggarwal; Baethegan, W.E.; Cooper, P.; Gommes, R.; Lee, B.; Meinke, H.B.; Rathore, L.S.; Sivakumar, M.V.K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the key information needs to reduce the negative impacts of weather variability and climate change on land degradation and food security, and identifies the opportunities and barriers between the information and services needed. It suggests that vulnerability assessments based on a livelihood concept that includes climate information and key socio-economic variables can overcome the narrow focus of common one-dimensional vulnerability studies. Both current and future clim...

  18. Climate change impacts on body size and food web structure on mountain ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lurgi, Miguel; López, Bernat C; Montoya, José M

    2012-11-01

    The current distribution of climatic conditions will be rearranged on the globe. To survive, species will have to keep pace with climates as they move. Mountains are among the most affected regions owing to both climate and land-use change. Here, we explore the effects of climate change in the vertebrate food web of the Pyrenees. We investigate elevation range expansions between two time-periods illustrative of warming conditions, to assess: (i) the taxonomic composition of range expanders; (ii) changes in food web properties such as the distribution of links per species and community size-structure; and (iii) what are the specific traits of range expanders that set them apart from the other species in the community-in particular, body mass, diet generalism, vulnerability and trophic position within the food web. We found an upward expansion of species at all elevations, which was not even for all taxonomic groups and trophic positions. At low and intermediate elevations, predator : prey mass ratios were significantly reduced. Expanders were larger, had fewer predators and were, in general, more specialists. Our study shows that elevation range expansions as climate warms have important and predictable impacts on the structure and size distribution of food webs across space. PMID:23007094

  19. Food irradiation, profits and limitations; Irradiacion de alimentos, beneficios y limitaciones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luna C, P.C

    1992-05-15

    The utility of the irradiation to overcome diverse problems of lost nutritious, it has been demonstrated in multiple investigation works, that its have confirmed the value and the inoculation of the irradiated foods. The quantity of energy applied to each food, is in function of the wanted effect. In this document a guide with respect to the practical application and the utility of the irradiation process in different foods, as well as the suggested dose average is shown. Among the limitations of the use of this technology, its are the costs and not being able to apply it to some fresh foods. (Author)

  20. Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2014-07-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates. PMID:25154102

  1. Indian Agricultural Scenario and Food Security Concerns in the Context of Climate Change: a Review

    OpenAIRE

    Dasgupta, Purnamita; Sirohi, Smita

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a brief review of the trends in foodgrain production in India, the determinants of its growth and domestic foodgrain supply projections to draw inferences about the future foodgrain production trends. The foodgrain supply forecasts are examined in relation to the likely demand of foodgrains to answer whether India would have a situation of food surplus or deficit. The paper summarizes the supply and demand side aspects of food security in the context of climate change-...

  2. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: water efficiency and climate signals

    OpenAIRE

    Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan

    2016-01-01

    Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in southern Africa is particularly high. The associated drought and flood risks, combined with a largely rain-fed agriculture, pose a challenge for water and food security in the region. As regional collaboration strengthens through the Southern Africa Development Community and trade with other regions increases, it is thus important to understand both how climate variability affects agricultural productivity and how food trade...

  3. NEW GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FOR AGRICULTURE, CLIMATE CHANGE, SUSTAINABILITY, AND FOOD SECURITY

    OpenAIRE

    Moon, Wanki; Koo, Won W.; Kim, Chang-Gil

    2011-01-01

    This article questions whether the WTO regime is the most appropriate institution for governing the global agriculture and trade in the wake of the problems that our world faces today. Specifically, climate change, potentially unsustainable agricultural practices, food insecurity in less developed countries (LDC), and expected imbalance in the global food demand and supply by 2050 are emerging as major challenges to humanity and the WTO while it is still struggling to resolve issues (related ...

  4. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: resource efficiency and climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan

    2015-04-01

    The connections between climate and the water-food nexus are strong and economically significant in southern Africa, yet the role of observed climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations is poorly understood. In addition, as regional collaboration strengthens through the SADC (Southern Africa Development Community) and trade with other regions increases, it is important to understand both how climate variability affects productivity and how intra- and extra-regional trade can contribute to the region's capacity to deal with climate-related productivity shocks. We use international food trade data (FAOSTAT) and a global hydrological model (H08) to quantify the water resources embedded in international food trade across southern Africa and with the rest of the world, from 1986-2011. We analyze the impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic changes on agricultural trade and embedded water resources during that period. In particular, the effects of climate variability on trade flows and crop yields are estimated, to provide insights on the potential of trade as a collaborative adaptation mechanism.

  5. Weather Vulnerability, Climate Change, and Food Security in Mt. Kilimanjaro

    OpenAIRE

    Muamba, Francis; Kraybill, David S.

    2010-01-01

    This study estimates the impact of rainfall variation on livelihood in Mt. Kilimanjaro using the Ricardian approach to capture farmers’ adaptation strategies to cope with climate change risks. The data for the analysis were gathered from a random sample of over 200 households in 15 villages and precipitation from rainfall observation posts placed in each of the surveyed villages. The precipitation data provide information on the effect of moisture at critical months in the growing season. Due...

  6. Proposed food and drug administration protection action guides for human food and animal feed: Rationale and limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Food and Drug Administration is proposing Protective Action Guides (PAG's) to be used in the event that a radiological incident results in the radioactive contamination of human food and animal feed. PAG's are proposed for two levels of response: (1) PREVENTIVE PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should take protective action to prevent or reduce the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed. (2) EMERGENCY PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should isolate food containing radioactivity to prevent its introduction into commerce and determine whether condemnation or another disposition is appropriate. Derived response levels, which are defined as the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed corresponding to the above PAG's, are proposed for radionuclides of most significance. The presentation will discuss the supporting rationale as well as the numerical limits for the PAG's. This rationale is based on the process of risk assessment and cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis. The risk assessment compares the risk of radiation exposure to the risk from prevalent hazards accepted by society and from variability of the natural radiation environment. The cost-benefit analysis is limited to protective actions efficacious in the reduction of iodine-131 dose to the thyroid via the milk pathway (condemnation and use of stored feed). In addition, the metabolic and agricultural transfer models that were used to calculate derived response levels will be described briefly. (author)

  7. Climate change policy distortions in the wood and food market

    OpenAIRE

    Ajani, Judith

    2010-01-01

    The widespread shift of Australia’s wood products industry away from native forests to an agricultural regime–wood plantations–has enhanced forestry industry competitiveness. Wood now competes against food for agricultural land, water and other resources (including government support). New plantings have increased substantially since the mid 1990s via plantation managed investment schemes (MIS), arousing protest in the traditional agricultural sector and claims of unfair government policy tre...

  8. Achieving food security in the face of climate change: summary for policy makers from the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    John R Beddington; Asaduzzaman, Mohammed; Bremauntz, Fernandez A.; Clark, Megan E.; Guillou, Marion; Jahn, Molly M.; Erda, Lin; Mamo, Tekalign; Van Bo, Nguyen; Nobre, Carlos A.; Robert J. Scholes; Sharma, Rita; Wakhungu, Judi

    2011-01-01

    Business as usual in our globally interconnected food system will not bring us food security and environmental sustainability. Several converging threats – from climate change, population growth and unsustainable use of resources – are steadily intensifying pressure on humanity and world governments to transform the way food is produced, distributed and consumed.

  9. Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdous Ahmed

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD, which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia.

  10. Impacts of the Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security, Traditional Knowledge and Agroecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Türkeş

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive model studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Furthermore, developing countries will suffer the most with a potential 9.1 per cent decline in agricultural output, for example with a considerable decrease of 16.6 per cent in Africa. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases, depending on emission scenarios and the assumptions on effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2 fertilization. One of the tools that would ensure the food security by making use of local sources and traditional knowledge is agroecology. Agroecology would contribute to mitigation of the anthropogenic climate change and cooling down the Earth’s increasing surface and lower atmospheric air temperatures, because it is mainly labour-intensive and requires little uses of fossil fuels, energy and artificial fertilisers. It is also necessary to understand the ecological mechanisms underlying sustainability of traditional farming systems, and to translate them into ecological principles that make locally available and appropriate approaches and techniques applicable to a large number of farmers.

  11. Sustaining agricultural production and food security in Southern Africa. An improved role for climate prediction?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Archer, E. [School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Pvt Bag 3, WITS 2050 Johannesburg (South Africa); Mukhala, E.; Masamvu, K. [Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Directorate, SADC Secretariat, Millennium Office Park, P/Bag 0095, Gaberone (Botswana); Walker, S. [Department Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein, 9300 (South Africa); Dilley, M. [Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, UNDP, International Environment House, Room B-13011-13 Chemin des Anemones, 1219 Chatelaine, Geneva, 10964-8000 (Switzerland)

    2007-08-15

    Livelihoods and household food security in the Southern African region can be extremely vulnerable to the negative effects of climate stress as shown by the 2002-2004 'complex emergency.' Climate prediction may prove a valuable resource in mitigating these effects. If climate prediction is applied successfully, it may be able to help guide responses in populations at risk to reduce vulnerability to climate stress. The study presented here seeks to understand what would constitute an improved role for climate prediction in contributing to sustaining agricultural production and food security in Southern Africa. Investigation undertaken during the 2002/2003 rainy season under regional conditions of elevated disaster risk shows, however, that a number of weaknesses and gaps persistently characterize climate information systems in the Southern African region, and constrain such systems' ability to benefit key sectors, particularly agriculture. The stakeholder identification of such gaps forms the basis for distilling concrete recommendations to improve process and organizational efficiency. Such recommendations, while developmental, should better enable institutions and stakeholders involved in climate prediction to fulfill their potential in supporting development of successful adaptation strategies in populations and sectors at risk.

  12. Comparing food limitation among three stages of nesting: supplementation experiments with the burrowing owl.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellicome, Troy I; Danielle Todd, L; Poulin, Ray G; Holroyd, Geoffrey L; Fisher, Ryan J

    2013-08-01

    Food availability is an important limiting factor for avian reproduction. In altricial birds, food limitation is assumed to be more severe during the nestling stage than during laying or incubation, but this has yet to be adequately tested. Using food-supplementation experiments over a 5-year period, we determined the degree and timing of food limitation for burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breeding in Canada. Burrowing owls are an endangered species and food limitation during the nestling stage could influence reproductive performance of this species at the northern extent of their range. Supplemented pairs fledged on average 47% more owlets than unfed pairs, except during a year when natural food was not limiting (i.e., a prey irruption year). The difference in fledgling production resulted from high nestling mortality in unfed broods, with 96% of all nestling deaths being attributed to food shortage. Supplemental feeding during the nestling period also increased fledgling structural size. Pairs fed from the start of laying produced the same number of hatchlings as pairs that received no supplemental food before hatch. Furthermore, pairs supplemented from egg laying to fledging and pairs supplemented during the nestling period alone had the same patterns of nestling survival, equal numbers of fledglings, and similar fledgling mass and structural size. Our results provide empirical support for the hypothesis that the nestling period is the most food-limited phase of the breeding cycle. The experimental design we introduce here could be used with other altricial species to examine how the timing of food limitation differs among birds with a variety of life-history strategies. For burrowing owls, and other species with similar life histories, long-term, large-scale, and appropriately timed habitat management increasing prey abundance or availability is critical for conservation. Our results provide empirical support for the hypothesis that the nestling period is

  13. Climate change: Problems of limits and policy responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Present emission rates of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the other principle greenhouse gases (radiatively important gases (RIG's)) - methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons - exceed the capacity of the oceanic, terrestrial, and tropospheric sinks to absorb them. Consequently, their concentrations in the troposphere are increasing and will continue to increase so long as emissions exceed sink capacities. It is assumed that an indefinitely persistent gap between emissions and sinks of RIG's implies indefinite global warming and related changes in regional climates. The high monetary and environmental costs that would be imposed by global warming are discussed along with the changes in energy policy that are needed to insure that these high costs will not be past on to future generations

  14. Impact of climate change on food security in southwest coastal region of bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines the impact of climate change on food security of the population residing in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Based on multistage random sampling technique, a survey was conducted to collect socioeconomic and food datasets of the people affected by extreme climate events in the country. The study found that climate change caused food insecurity in the region; it led to greater dependence on pond and rain water for cooking food and water intake. Catastrophe due to extreme weather events adversely affected the livelihoods and level of income. The severe cyclonic storms, Sidr (November 2007) and Alia (May 2009) severely affected the vulnerable people of this region, especially the extremely poor. The study came out with several coping strategies to address adverse effects of climate change, including rehabilitation with income and employment generating activities and development training; alternative livelihood adaptation practices; access to subsidized inputs and credits; introduction of crop calendar; conservation of arable and fellow land; and innovation of saline-tolerant, heat-resistant, moderate water consuming and short-rotation crops for the coastal people. (author)

  15. Managing Climatic Risks to Combat Land Degradation and Enhance Food security: Key Information Needs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aggarwal, P.K.; Baethegan, W.E.; Cooper, P.; Gommes, R.; Lee, B.; Meinke, H.B.; Rathore, L.S.; Sivakumar, M.V.K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the key information needs to reduce the negative impacts of weather variability and climate change on land degradation and food security, and identifies the opportunities and barriers between the information and services needed. It suggests that vulnerability assessments based o

  16. Low Simulated Radiation Limit for Runaway Greenhouse Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldblatt, Colin; Robinson, Tyler D.; Zahnle, Kevin J.; Crisp, David

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial planet atmospheres must be in long-term radiation balance, with solar radiation absorbed matched by thermal radiation emitted. For hot moist atmospheres, however, there is an upper limit on the thermal emission which is decoupled from the surface temperature. If net absorbed solar radiation exceeds this limit the planet will heat uncontrollably, the so-called \\runaway greenhouse". Here we show that a runaway greenhouse induced steam atmosphere may be a stable state for a planet with the same amount of incident solar radiation as Earth has today, contrary to previous results. We have calculated the clear-sky radiation limits at line-by-line spectral resolution for the first time. The thermal radiation limit is lower than previously reported (282 W/sq m rather than 310W/sq m) and much more solar radiation would be absorbed (294W/sq m rather than 222W/sq m). Avoiding a runaway greenhouse under the present solar constant requires that the atmosphere is subsaturated with water, and that cloud albedo forcing exceeds cloud greenhouse forcing. Greenhouse warming could in theory trigger a runaway greenhouse but palaeoclimate comparisons suggest that foreseeable increases in greenhouse gases will be insufficient to do this.

  17. Food Security Hotspots in India under Changing Climate and Growing Populatio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Global climate change, unprecedented population growth, and rapid urbanization have elevated the possibility of food and water shortages in many regions across the world. The likelihood of such shortages in the future is further exacerbated by the fact that increased greenhouse forcing and rapid growth in human population will continue for at least the next several decades. These socio-environmental changes will likely put some regions under enormous economic and environmental stress by forcing them to adapt to new conditions. India with its rapidly growing population and high rates of urbanization and industrialization is one such region whose agricultural resources will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of these changes. This study collectively reviews and analyses the possible impacts of climate change, population growth and resulting land use change on the availability of food and water in the coming decades for India. By analyzing and fusing a wide variety of existing data and research on the impact of land use change, population, and climate change, on water and food resources this study develops an understanding of the broader implications of each of the changes on food security in the region. In addition, the study focuses on the need to assess and quantify the combination of such impacts at a regional level and identify food security hotspots spatially across India that will help to narrow down regions in the country which will be severely affected and need priority adaptation and mitigation measures.

  18. Mechanical evidence that Australopithecus sediba was limited in its ability to eat hard foods

    OpenAIRE

    Ledogar, Justin A.; Smith, Amanda L.; Benazzi, Stefano; Weber, Gerhard W.; Spencer, Mark A.; Carlson, Keely B.; McNulty, Kieran P.; Dechow, Paul C.; Grosse, Ian R.; Ross, Callum F.; Richmond, Brian G.; Wright, Barth W.; Qian WANG; Byron, Craig; Carlson, Kristian J.

    2016-01-01

    Australopithecus sediba has been hypothesized to be a close relative of the genus Homo. Here we show that MH1, the type specimen of A. sediba, was not optimized to produce high molar bite force and appears to have been limited in its ability to consume foods that were mechanically challenging to eat. Dental microwear data have previously been interpreted as indicating that A. sediba consumed hard foods, so our findings illustrate that mechanical data are essential if one aims to reconstruct a...

  19. Feeding strategy of wild herbivores in habitats of limited food resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Kamler

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In mountain environment of the Jeseníky Mts., we studied the botanical composition and quality of diets of red deer, roe deer and chamois as well as utilization of their food supply. The data were collected from two localities of different altitudes and food supply. The locality on summits was covered mostly with grasses in herb layer and inhabited by chamois and red deer, while in the lower locations raspberry, forbs and broadleaved tree was abundant and red and roe deer were presented. The aim of the study was to analyze a feeding strategy of three ungulate species in mountain habitats with limited food supply and to deduce implications to management of their populations. (1 Botanic composition of the ungulate food was influenced not only by their foraging specialisation but also food supply was very important. Red deer consumed grasses (more than 90 percent of volume on the summit in growing season while forbs and browse were presented in substantial amount in its diet in lower altitudes. (2 The food quality based on nitrogen content was higher in general in roe deer than in the others ungulates but during late winter the roe deer consumed the diet based on spruce needles of very low quality. The quality of red deer diet was lower in the summit area (grassy habitats than at foot hills where the food supply was more various. (3 The roe deer distribution can be restricted by absence of high quality food resources in ground vegetation while red deer and chamois can use food of lower quality (grasses. (5 Winter is a critical period for all study species when the food supply is a worst quality and the ungulate diets were similar and the possibility of competition for limited resources increase.

  20. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Rivington

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and the availability of clean water, hence threatening human health, livelihoods and ultimately societal stability. Degradation also increases the vulnerability of populations to the consequences of natural disasters and climate change impacts. With 10 million people dying from hunger each year, the linkages between ecosystems and food security are important to recognize. Though we all depend on ecosystems for our food and water, about seventy per cent of the estimated 1.1 billion people in poverty around the world live in rural areas and depend directly on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods. Healthy ecosystems provide a diverse range of food sources and support entire agricultural systems, but their value to food security and sustainable livelihoods are often undervalued or ignored. There is an urgent need for increased financial investment for integrating ecosystem management with food security and poverty alleviation priorities. As the world’s leaders worked towards a new international climate change agenda in Cancun, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010 (UNFCCC COP16, it was clear that without a deep and decisive post-2012 agreement and major concerted effort to reduce the food crisis, the Millennium Development Goals will not be attained. Political commitment at the highest level will be needed to raise the profile of ecosystems on the global food agenda. It is recommended that full recognition and promotion be given of the linkages

  1. Rising oceans, climate change, food aid, and human rights in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlgren, Ingrid; Yamada, Seiji; Wong, Allen

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts are expected to produce more frequent, longer and unpredictable drought periods with further saltwater intrusion in the Marshall Islands. As a result, a significant return to traditional food cropping is unlikely. This will lead to an increased dependence on food aid, especially in the outer atoll populations. An examination of the nutritional content of food aid suggests it is likely to lead to poor health outcomes. Dependence on food aid has gradually increased over the past 70 years in the Marshall Islands, starting with population relocation because of war and nuclear testing and most recently because of climate change. The authors argue that the health impacts of the supplemental imported diet, combined with migration to population centers, may result in an even greater prevalence of chronic diseases, and exert pressures that lead to more communicable disease, further exacerbating the syndemics in the Marshall Islands. The authors conclude that food aid donors and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) government have human rights obligations to ensure that the people in the Marshall Islands have access to adequate nutrition. Accordingly, donors and the government should re-examine the content of food and ensure it is of sufficient quality to meet the right to health obligations. PMID:25618915

  2. High Sequestration, Low Emission, Food Secure Farming. Organic Agriculture - a Guide to Climate Change & Food Security

    OpenAIRE

    Jordan, Robert; Müller, Adrian; Oudes, Anne

    2009-01-01

    - affordable high sequestration practices based on local resources - enables continuous farmer-based adaptation to climate change - ideal for the improvement of the world’s 400 million smallholder farms - locally adapted, affordable and people centered - empowers local communities - established practices, systems and markets - experience, practices and expertise to share

  3. Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, W.; Cramer, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Battaglini, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2011-01-01

    Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of Region

  4. Impact of nitrogen deposition on forest and lake food webs in nitrogen-limited environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meunier, Cédric L; Gundale, Michael J; Sánchez, Irene S; Liess, Antonia

    2016-01-01

    Increased reactive nitrogen (Nr ) deposition has raised the amount of N available to organisms and has greatly altered the transfer of energy through food webs, with major consequences for trophic dynamics. The aim of this review was to: (i) clarify the direct and indirect effects of Nr deposition on forest and lake food webs in N-limited biomes, (ii) compare and contrast how aquatic and terrestrial systems respond to increased Nr deposition, and (iii) identify how the nutrient pathways within and between ecosystems change in response to Nr deposition. We present that Nr deposition releases primary producers from N limitation in both forest and lake ecosystems and raises plants' N content which in turn benefits herbivores with high N requirements. Such trophic effects are coupled with a general decrease in biodiversity caused by different N-use efficiencies; slow-growing species with low rates of N turnover are replaced by fast-growing species with high rates of N turnover. In contrast, Nr deposition diminishes below-ground production in forests, due to a range of mechanisms that reduce microbial biomass, and decreases lake benthic productivity by switching herbivore growth from N to phosphorus (P) limitation, and by intensifying P limitation of benthic fish. The flow of nutrients between ecosystems is expected to change with increasing Nr deposition. Due to higher litter production and more intense precipitation, more terrestrial matter will enter lakes. This will benefit bacteria and will in turn boost the microbial food web. Additionally, Nr deposition promotes emergent insects, which subsidize the terrestrial food web as prey for insectivores or by dying and decomposing on land. So far, most studies have examined Nr -deposition effects on the food web base, whereas our review highlights that changes at the base of food webs substantially impact higher trophic levels and therefore food web structure and functioning. PMID:25953197

  5. Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2010-01-01

    Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

  6. Relationship between Climate Variables and Yield of Food Crops in Nepal : Cases of Makwanpur and Ilam District

    OpenAIRE

    Shrestha, Suman Lal; Maharjan, Keshav Lall; Joshi, Niraj Prakash

    2012-01-01

    Agriculture, being sector largely dependent on climate variables, will be adversely affected by climate change. Therefore, this paper intends to assess how the recent trends of climate variables are affecting yields of major food crops in two hilly districts of Nepal namely, Makwanpur and Ilam based on district level data from 1978-2008. Trends of climate variables show that maximum and minimum temperature in summer as well as winter temperatures are increasing in Makwanpur, but in Ilam minim...

  7. The Water – Energy – Food Nexus and Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holtermann Talin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This report explores the exposure and vulnerability of Korea and the Southern African region to climate-driven impacts in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF nexus. It presents the building of ecological networks as a mean to address climate change - induced alterations of ecosystems and the consequences for humans and nature. Reducing the asymmetry between price and value of water resources is identified as an essential aspect to enable sound resource management use decisions. The report highlights the need for comprehensive tools which assist decision makers in dealing with the complexity of WEF nexus interrelations and facilitate sustainable resource management.

  8. The Paris Climate Agreement: Is it sufficient to limit climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    Brauers, Hanna; Richter, Philipp M.

    2016-01-01

    "The Paris Agreement is a monumental triumph for people and our planet" (UN News Centre, 2015). Statements, like this one from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, represent the global excitement shortly after the acceptance of the Paris Agreement and describe the outcome of the COP21 in December 2015 primarily as 'historical'. Twenty years after the UN's first COP (Conference of the Parties), the international community reached "the first universal agreement in the history of climate negotiatio...

  9. Integrating the Technosocial Dimensions of Food and Biomass Energy Systems under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izaurralde, R. C.; Malone, E. L.; Thomson, A. M.; Morgan, L. G.; Kim, S. H.

    2008-12-01

    The increasing complexity of global-change issues calls for both interdisciplinary approaches and modeling tools able to integrate information across different knowledge domains (environment, food security, climate change, social conditions, technology, and national security). Here we use results from three models (the integrated assessment model MiniCAM, the biophysical model EPIC, and the vulnerability model VRIM) as well as other physical and social data to develop a model prototype in STELLA® for evaluating issues of food and biofuel production, land competition, population growth, and nutrition. Our initial focus is on the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh), a rapid developing region with recognized issues with regards to vulnerability to climate change, environmental conditions, food production and nutrition, energy production, and national security. The model prototype for India consists of three major domains: land and crop production, food and biofuels production, and population growth and nutrition. FAO and UNDP data are to used to develop the historical background while profit indices and nutrition status are used to examine land use competition and food policies.

  10. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are...

  11. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Louisa S.; Hicks, Christina C.; Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L.; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute. PMID:26960200

  12. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louisa S Evans

    Full Text Available Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  13. An Evaluation of Effect of Climate Change on Food Security of Rural Households in Cross River State, Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Emaziye, P. O.; Okoh, R. N.; Ike, P. C.

    2013-01-01

    The study focused on the linkage between climate change and food security of rural households in Cross River state. The specific objectives are to ascertain the level of food security of rural households and impacts of climate change factors on the food security of rural households. Cross River State is located within Latitude 05°13’ 26’’ North and longitude 08° 17’ 44’’ East with an estimated population of 2.888,966 persons. The state is a coastal area usually affected by climate events (flo...

  14. Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Water Scarcity—Physical Limits, Sectoral Constraints, and Policy Imperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher A. Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life-cycle impacts of thermoelectric generation and biofuel production, and freshwater availability and sectoral allocations from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. Emerging, energy-related water scarcity flashpoints include the world’s largest, most diversified economies (Brazil, India, China, and USA among others, while physical water scarcity continues to pose limits to energy development in the Middle East and small-island states. Findings include the following: (a technological obstacles to alleviate water scarcity driven by energy demand are surmountable; (b resource conservation is inevitable, driven by financial limitations and efficiency gains; and (c institutional arrangements play a pivotal role in the virtuous water-energy-climate cycle. We conclude by making reference to coupled energy-water policy alternatives including water-conserving energy portfolios, intersectoral water transfers, virtual water for energy, hydropower tradeoffs, and use of impaired waters for energy development.

  15. Resting egg production induced by food limitation in the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drillet, Guillaume; Hansen, Benni W.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Three populations of the copepod Acartia tonsa, two from the Baltic Sea and one from the U.S. East Coast, were compared for resting egg production at conditions of saturating and limiting food availability. All three populations produced eggs that hatched within 72 h when incubated at 17°C (subit...

  16. Asssociations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited inc...

  17. Pet Food Palatability Evaluation: A Review of Standard Assay Techniques and Interpretation of Results with a Primary Focus on Limitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory C. Aldrich

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The pet food industry continues to grow steadily as a result of new innovative products. Quality control and product development tests for pet foods are typically conducted through palatability testing with dogs and cats. Palatability is the measure of intake of a food that indicates acceptance or the measure of preference of one food over another. Pet food palatability is most commonly measured using a single-bowl or a two-bowl assay. While these tests answer some questions about the animals’ perception of the food, there are many limitations as well. This review addresses some of these limitations and indicates opportunities for future research.

  18. Derivation of recommended limits for radionuclide contamination of foods by the FAO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a consequence of the reactor accident at Chernobyl, USSR, various countries defined limits for radioactive contamination of foods at different levels. These limits ranged from a few Bq iodine 131 or cesium 134 + 137/kg (Malaysia and Canada) to more than 1000 Bq/kg (Great Britain and France). These variations in limits hindered the movement of foods in international trade. For this reason the FAO convened an Expert Consultation to derive 'action levels' below which neither intervention nor constraint would be justified in terms of international movement and trade in food and drink. These limits are to find application in cases of widespread environmental contamination after an accidental release of radionuclides. They are not to be applied in cases of local release, e.g. in the vicinity of nuclear facilities. The derivation of 'action levels' by the FAO was based on the recommendations issued by the International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) in May 1985. According to this recommendation the committed dose equivalent for the whole body should not exceed 5 mSv in the first and 1 mSv in the consecutive years. For radionuclides that preferentially irradiate individual organs, e.g. I131 in the thyroid, the dose equivalent to a specified organ may be used to derive limiting values. For individual organs limiting doses of 50 mSv/a and 10 mSv/a respectively were chosen

  19. Challenges of reforestation in a water limited world under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Sun, Ge

    2014-05-01

    The debate on the ecological benefits of planted forests at the sensitive lower edge of the closed forest belt (at the "xeric limits") is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously predominantly occupied by grassland or agriculture can dramatically alter the energy and water balance at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts under future climate change and variability due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. The study investigates some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of plantation forests and potential impacts at the dryland edges of the temperate zone, using case studies from three countries/regions on three continents. We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effect of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of reforestation on water resources might turn into negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events likely reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest policy on management, silviculture and reforestation planning requires the consideration of local hydrologic conditions, future climatic conditions, and also of non-forest alternatives of land use. Keywords: drylands, xeric limits, trailing limits, ecohydrology, climate forcing, land use change, forest policy

  20. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Mike Rivington; Richard Tingem Munang; Ibrahim Thiaw

    2011-01-01

    This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and th...

  1. Sustainable plant protection for increased food security in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Glinwood, Robert; Birkett, Mike; Kumar, Savitri; Bandara, PB; Ninkovic, Velemir; Pettersson, Jan

    2008-01-01

    The global climate is changing. Rising temperatures in temperate regions are making headlines, but there are a host of changes that may have even greater impact on a global scale, particularly in regions where food security is already delicately balanced. Rising sea levels, changing patterns of rainfall, availability of water and increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are all likely to affect the biotic environment upon which we depend.

  2. Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

    2016-07-01

    The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

  3. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Farm-level Efficiency in Food Crop Production in Southwestern, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otitoju, MA.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Food crop yields depend largely on prevailing climate conditions, especially in Africa, where rain-fed agriculture predominate. The extent to which climate impacts are felt depends principally on the adaptation measures used by farmers. This study focused on the effect of climate change adaptation strategies on farm-level technical efficiency. The study used primary data collected from 360 randomly selected farmers in Southwest Nigeria. Cobb-Douglass stochastic frontier production model was used to analyse the data. Multiple cropping, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates, mulching and cover cropping were the major climate change adaptation strategies employed by the farmers. While land fragmentation and multiple planting dates had significant positive relationships, years of climate change awareness and social capital had significant inverse relationships, with technical inefficiency. This may be because while land fragmentation may hinder farm mechanization, multiple planting dates may increase the monotonousness and drudgery of farming. On the other hand, social capital and climate change awareness could help ameliorate the effects of, particularly, land fragmentation through resource pooling. It is therefore recommended that the farmers be encouraged to form cooperative societies so as to leverage their resource status through collective efforts.

  4. The Empowerment Strategy for The Food Crop Farmers in Anticipating The Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efriyani Sumastuti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In Indonesia, the climate change and the global warming like changes in the pattern and distribution of the rainfall give impacts on agricultural production at large, especially in the food crops. These also cause droughts, floods, landslides, forest fires, rising temperatures in urban areas, and rising sea levels. The above impacts are felt by the farmers because those can lead to a decrease in production even the crop failure. This research aims to develop an empowerment strategy of the food crop farmers in anticipating the climate change in Central Java. The data used is the primary data obtained through in-depth interviews with key-person and the Focus Group Discussion (FGD. The Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP is conducted to determine the program priorities and strate gies. The result of research shows that anticipating the climate change should be synergistically conducted in four aspects: human resources, technology, institutional and production, by involving various groups in the society. Various groups can be grouped into academics, businessmen / private sectors, government and community of food crop farmers / society.

  5. Shining India?: Assessing and addressing the risks from an unsustainable trajectory of climate, water, food, energy and income inequity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    Climate and demographics are primary drivers of regional resource sustainability. In today's global economy, increasing trade has provided a mechanism to alleviate regional stresses. However, increasing regional income promotes consumption, aggravating regional and global resource pressures. South Asia, has the highest population density at a sub-continent scale. Given its monsoonal climate, and high intensity of agriculture it faces perhaps the most severe population weighted water stress in the world. Rapidly declining groundwater tables and the associated high energy use for pumping for irrigated agriculture translate into unsustainable energy imports and expenditure that contributed to the two largest blackouts in global history in summer 2012. Access to water has been progressively declining for both rural and urban populations for the last 3 decades. The increasing energy imports and poor grid reliability translate into limits to the growth of manufacturing and exports of goods and services. The growing income inequity within the population and across national borders, and the impacts of floods and droughts on access to water, food and energy collectively suggest a very high risk for social unrest and a conflict flashpoint. I present a scenario analysis that establishes this case for the emergence of internal and external strife in the region as an outcome of the current resource and natural disaster management policies in the region. Prospects for strategic policy changes for water and energy management and the design of a food procurement and distribution system that could lead to a better future are discussed.

  6. Organic matter flow in the food web at a temperate heath under multifactorial climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Louise C.; Konestabo, Heidi S.; Maraldo, Kristine;

    2011-01-01

    climate change factors (elevated CO2, increased temperature and drought) were investigated in a full factorial field experiment at a temperate heathland location. The combined effect of biotic and abiotic factors on nitrogen and carbon flows was traced in plant root → litter → microbe → detritivore...... of the microbial biomass, a likely major food source, and the climatic factors. Furthermore, the natural abundance δ13C of enchytraeids was significantly altered in CO2‐fumigated plots, showing that even small changes in δ13C‐CO2 can be used to detect transfer of carbon from primary producers to detritivores. We...... conclude that, in the short term, the climate change treatments affected soil organism activity, possibly with labile carbohydrate production controlling the microbial and detritivore biomass, with potential consequences for the decomposition of detritus and nutrient cycling. Hence, there appears...

  7. Climate warming strengthens indirect interactions in an old-field food web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Brandon T; Beckerman, Andrew P; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2009-09-01

    Climate change is expected to alter trophic interactions within food chains, but predicting the fate of particular species is difficult because the predictions hinge on knowing exactly how climate influences direct and indirect interactions. We used two complementary approaches to examine how climate change may alter trophic interactions within an old-field food web composed of herbaceous plants, grasshopper herbivores, and spider predators. We synthesized data spanning 15 years of experimentation during which interannual mean growing season temperature varied by 2 degrees C and precipitation by 2.5 cm. We also manipulated temperature within mesocosms to test the affect of temperature on primary production and strength of direct and indirect trophic interactions. Both approaches produced similar results: plant production was not directly affected by temperature or precipitation, but the strength of top-down indirect effects on grasses and forbs increased by 30-40% per 1 degrees C. Hence, the net effect of climate change was to strengthen top-down control of this terrestrial system. PMID:19769112

  8. Plant responses, climate pivot points, and trade-offs in water-limited ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M.

    2013-01-01

    Plant species in dryland ecosystems are limited by water availability and may be vulnerable to increases in aridity. Methods are needed to monitor and assess the rate of change in plant abundance and composition in relation to climate, understand the potential for degradation in dryland ecosystems, and forecast future changes in plant species assemblages. I employ nearly a century of vegetation monitoring data from three North American deserts to demonstrate an approach to determine plant species responses to climate and critical points over a range of climatic conditions at which plant species shift from increases to decreases in abundance (climate pivot points). I assess these metrics from a site to regional scale and highlight how these indicators of plant performance can be modified by the physical and biotic environment. For example, shrubs were more responsive to drought and high temperatures on shallow soils with limited capacity to store water and fine-textured soils with slow percolation rates, whereas perennial grasses were more responsive to precipitation in sparse shrublands than in relatively dense grasslands and shrublands, where competition for water is likely more intense. The responses and associated climate pivot points of plant species aligned with their lifespan and structural characteristics, and the relationship between responses and climate pivot points provides evidence of the trade-off between the capacity of a plant species to increase in abundance when water is available and its drought resistance.

  9. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  10. Testing the environmental performance of urban agriculture as a food supply in northern climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldstein, Benjamin Paul; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Fernandez, John;

    2016-01-01

    The past decade has seen a renaissance of urban agriculture in the world's wealthy, northern cities. The practice of producing food in and around cities is championed as a method to reduce environmental impacts of urban food demands (reducing distance from farm to fork - ‘food miles’) whilst......, though opposite findings emerge when external energy inputs are significant. In this study we perform an environmental life cycle assessment of six urban farms in Boston, US producing lettuce and tomatoes, with conventional counterparts across six impact categories. Performance of urban agriculture was...... conferring a number of ancillary benefits to host cities (runoff attenuation, urban heat island mitigation) and ex-urban environments (carbon sequestration). Previous environmental assessments have found urban agriculture to be more sustainable than conventional agriculture when performed in mild climates...

  11. Associations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited incomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yan

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited incomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of parental feeding styles and young children's evening food intake in a multiethnic sample of families in Head Start. Methods Participants were 715 Head Start children and their parents from Texas and Alabama representing three ethnic groups: African-American (43%, Hispanic (29%, and White (28%. The Caregivers Feeding Styles Questionnaire (Hughes was used to characterize authoritative, authoritarian (referent, indulgent or uninvolved feeding styles. Food intake in several food groups was calculated from 3 days of dietary recalls for the child for evening food intakes from 3 PM until bedtime. Results Compared to children of authoritarian parents, intakes of fruits, juice and vegetables were lowest among children of indulgent or uninvolved parents (1.77 ± 0.09 vs 1.45 ± 0.09 and 1.42 ± 0.11 cups as were intakes of dairy foods (0.84 ± 0.05 vs 0.67 ± 0.05 and 0.63+0.06 cups, respectively. Conclusion Findings suggest that permissive parent feeding styles like indulgent or uninvolved relate negatively to children's intake of nutrient-rich foods fruit, 100% fruit juice, vegetables and dairy foods from 3 PM until bedtime.

  12. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. PMID:26974571

  13. World climate change represents a serious risk to food and drink from mycotoxins affecting Asia and the Pacific Rim

    OpenAIRE

    Paterson, R. R. M.; Lima, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Safe food production is challenged by climate change. There will be major problems in already hot countries in relation to obtaining food and water. However, mycotoxins from fungi are a crucial aspect affecting all countries. Specific predictions will be made in the current presentation on how climate change will affect mycotoxins and the fungi that produce them. Water activity and temperature are crucial for fungal growth and mycotoxin production, although the optima for both ...

  14. Essays on the Economics of Climate Change, Biofuel and Food Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguin, Charles

    Climate change is likely to be the most important global pollution problem that humanity has had to face so far. In this dissertation, I tackle issues directly and indirectly related to climate change, bringing my modest contribution to the body of human creativity trying to deal with climate change. First, I look at the impact of non-convex feedbacks on the optimal climate policy. Second, I try to derive the optimal biofuel policy acknowledging the potential negative impacts that biofuel production might have on food supply. Finally, I test empirically for the presence of loss aversion in food purchases, which might play a role in the consumer response to food price changes brought about by biofuel production. Non-convexities in feedback processes are increasingly found to be important in the climate system. To evaluate their impact on the optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) abate- ment policy, I introduce non-convex feedbacks in a stochastic pollution control model. I numerically calibrate the model to represent the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global climate change. This approach makes two contributions to the literature. First, it develops a framework to tackle stochastic non-convex pollu- tion management problems. Second, it applies this framework to the problem of climate change. This approach is in contrast to most of the economic literature on climate change that focuses either on linear feedbacks or environmental thresholds. I find that non-convex feedbacks lead to a decision threshold in the optimal mitigation policy, and I characterize how this threshold depends on feedback parameters and stochasticity. There is great hope that biofuel can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel. However, there are some concerns that biofuel would increase food prices. In an optimal control model, a co-author and I look at the optimal biofuel production when it competes for land with food production. In addition oil is not

  15. Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem

    2010-01-01

    Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

  16. 76 FR 54801 - Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a Subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding Limited, Grove City, PA...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-02

    ... Employment and Training Administration Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a Subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding... Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding Limited, Grove City, Pennsylvania... make the following certification: All workers of Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a subsidiary of...

  17. Climate change impacts on crop yield,crop water productivity and food security-A review

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yinhong Kang; Shahbaz Khan; Xiaoyi Xi

    2009-01-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive review of literature related to the assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity using climate,water and crop yield models.The existing studies present that climate change models with higher spatial resolution can be a way forward for future climate projections.Meanwhile,stochastic projections of more than one climate model are necessary for providing insights into model uncertainties as well as to develop risk management strategies.It is projected that water availability will increase in some parts of the world,which will have its own effect on water use efficiency and water allocation.Crop production can increase if irrigated areas are expanded or irrigation is intensified,but these may increase the rate of environmental degradation.Since climate change impacts on soil water balance will lead to changes of soil evaporation and plant transpiration,consequently,the crop growth period may shorten in the future impacting on water productivity.Crop yields affected by climate change are projected to be different in various areas,in some areas crop yields will increase,and for other areas it will decrease depending on the latitude of the area and irrigation application.Existing modelling results show that an increase in precipitation will increase crop yield,and what is more,crop yield is more sensitive to the precipitation than temperature.If water availability is reduced in the future,soils of high water holding capacity will be better to reduce the impact of drought while maintaining crop yield.With the temperature increasing and precipitation fluctuations,water availability and crop production are likely to decrease in the future.If the irrigated areas are expanded,the total crop production will increase;however,food and environmental quality may degrade.

  18. Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amikuzuno, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.

  19. Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

    2016-08-01

    Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.

  20. Modeling intermediate product selection under production and storage capacity limitations in food processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilic, Onur Alper; Akkerman, Renzo; Grunow, Martin;

    2009-01-01

    In the food industry products are usually characterized by their recipes, which are specified by various quality attributes. For end products, this is given by customer requirements, but for intermediate products, the recipes can be chosen in such a way that raw material procurement costs and pro...... production and inventory planning, thereby considering the production and storage capacity limitations. The resulting model can be used to solve an important practical problem typical for many food processing industries....... processing costs are minimized. However, this product selection process is bound by production and storage capacity limitations, such as the number and size of storage tanks or silos. In this paper, we present a mathematical programming approach that combines decision making on product selection with...

  1. Effect of Climate Variables on Yield of Major Food-crops in Nepal : A Time-series Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Joshi, Niraj Prakash; Maharjan, Keshav Lall; Piya Luni,

    2011-01-01

    Climate change influences crop yield vis-à-vis crop production to a greater extent in countries like Nepal where agriculture depends largely on natural circumstances. Plausible scenarios of climate change like higher temperatures and changes in precipitation will directly affect crop yields. Therefore, this study assesses the effect of observed climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal, namely rice, wheat, maize, millet, barley and potato based on regression model for historical...

  2. Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-

    OpenAIRE

    Joshi, Niraj Prakash; Maharjan, Keshav Lall; Piya, Luni

    2011-01-01

    Climate change influences crop yield vis-à-vis crop production to a greater extent in countries like Nepal where agriculture depends largely on natural circumstances. Plausible scenarios of climate change like higher temperatures and changes in precipitation will directly affect crop yields. Therefore, this study assesses the effect of observed climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal, namely rice, wheat, maize, millet, barley and potato based on regression model for historical...

  3. Territorial resources, limits and strategies of local development processes and agri-food productions of quality

    OpenAIRE

    Severino Romano; Francesco Marangon; Roberto Polidori

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this work is to analyse the role that typical products can play in the local development process. Territorial resources involved, limits and strategies for their enhancement are analysed; this analysis will permit both to define the results that have been achieved since nowadays in the local development process and to point out future themes for the research in the field of agricultural economics. The typicality of an agri-food product regards qualitative characteristics that deriv...

  4. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhaug, Halvard; Benjaminsen, Tor A.; Sjaastad, Espen; Magnus Theisen, Ole

    2015-12-01

    Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect relationship. The analysis reveals a robust link between weather patterns and food production where more rainfall generally is associated with higher yields. However, the second step in the causal model is not supported; agricultural output and violent conflict are only weakly and inconsistently connected, even in the specific contexts where production shocks are believed to have particularly devastating social consequences. Although this null result could, in theory, be fully compatible with recent reports of food price-related riots, it suggests that the wider socioeconomic and political context is much more important than drought and crop failures in explaining violent conflict in contemporary Africa.

  5. Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Fabien H.; Hérault, Bruno; Bonal, Damien; Stahl, Clément; Anderson, Liana O.; Baker, Timothy R.; Becker, Gabriel Sebastian; Beeckman, Hans; Boanerges Souza, Danilo; Botosso, Paulo Cesar; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Bräuning, Achim; Brede, Benjamin; Irving Brown, Foster; Julio Camarero, Jesus; Barbosa Camargo, Plínio; Cardoso, Fernanda C. G.; Alvim Carvalho, Fabrício; Castro, Wendeson; Koloski Chagas, Rubens; Chave, Jérome; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Clark, Deborah A.; Capellotto Costa, Flavia Regina; Couralet, Camille; Henrique da Silva Mauricio, Paulo; Dalitz, Helmut; Resende de Castro, Vinicius; Eloisa de Freitas Milani, Jaçanan; Consuelo de Oliveira, Edilson; de Souza Arruda, Luciano; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Drew, David M.; Dünisch, Oliver; Durigan, Giselda; Elifuraha, Elisha; Fedele, Marcio; Ferreira Fedele, Ligia; Figueiredo Filho, Afonso; Guimarães Finger, César Augusto; César Franco, Augusto; Lima Freitas Júnior, João; Galvão, Franklin; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Gliniars, Robert; Maurício Lima de Alencastro Graça, Paulo; Griffiths, Anthony D.; Grogan, James; Guan, Kaiyu; Homeier, Jürgen; Raquel Kanieski, Maria; Khoon Kho, Lip; Koenig, Jennifer; Valerio Kohler, Sintia; Krepkowski, Julia; Pires Lemos-Filho, José; Lieberman, Diana; Lieberman, Milton Eugene; Lisi, Claudio Sergio; Longhi Santos, Tomaz; López Ayala, José Luis; Eijji Maeda, Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maria, Vivian R. B.; Marques, Marcia C. M.; Marques, Renato; Maza Chamba, Hector; Mbwambo, Lawrence; Liana Lisboa Melgaço, Karina; Mendivelso, Hooz Angela; Murphy, Brett P.; O'Brien, Joseph J.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Okada, Naoki; Pélissier, Raphaël; Prior, Lynda D.; Alejandro Roig, Fidel; Ross, Michael; Rodrigo Rossatto, Davi; Rossi, Vivien; Rowland, Lucy; Rutishauser, Ervan; Santana, Hellen; Schulze, Mark; Selhorst, Diogo; Rodrigues Silva, Williamar; Silveira, Marcos; Spannl, Susanne; Swaine, Michael D.; Julio Toledo, José; Toledo, Marcos Miranda; Toledo, Marisol; Toma, Takeshi; Tomazello Filho, Mario; Valdez Hernández, Juan Ignacio; Verbesselt, Jan; Aparecida Vieira, Simone; Vincent, Grégoire; Volkmer de Castilho, Carolina; Volland, Franziska; Worbes, Martin; Bolzan Zanon, Magda Lea; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.

    2016-04-01

    The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter productivity measurements), their associated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonality in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rainfall is wood productivity and litterfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosynthetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest productivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in current light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000 mm yr-1.

  6. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

    OpenAIRE

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V.; Aschan, Michaela

    2015-01-01

    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the ...

  7. Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Major Native Non-Food Bioenergy Plants in China

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

    2014-01-01

    Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferu...

  8. The CAMI Project - Weather and Climate Services for Caribbean Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotman, Adrian; Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Food security is major focus of Caribbean governments, with production being of particular concern. For the past three decades, Caribbean agriculture has been declining in relative importance, both in terms of its contribution to GDP and its share of the labour force. One of the problems Caribbean agriculture faces is the destructive impacts from weather and climate extremes. These include flood, drought, extreme temperatures, and strong winds from tropical cyclones. Other potential disasters, such as from pests and diseases attacks, are also weather and climate driven. These make weather and climate information critically important to decision-making in agriculture in the Caribbean region. In an effort to help reduce weather and climate related risks to the food security sector, The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, along with its partners the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and ten National Meteorological Services from within the Caribbean Community launched and implemented the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI). From 2010 to 2013, CAMI set out to provide relevant information to farmers, and the industry in general, for decision and policy making. The project is funded by the European Union through the Science and Technology Programme of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of Countries' (ACP). The overarching objective of CAMI was to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information, using an integrated and coordinated approach. Currently, this is done through (i) provision of relevant climate information appropriately disseminated, (ii) predictions on seasonal rainfall and temperature, (iii) support for improved irrigation management, (iv) the development of strategically selected weather-driven pest and disease models, (v) use of crop simulation models

  9. The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedvig K Nenzén

    Full Text Available Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.

  10. Quinoa biodiversity and sustainability for food security under climate change. A review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruiz, Karina B.; Biondi, Stefania; Oses, Rómulo;

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is rapidly degrading the conditions of crop production. For instance, increasing salinization and aridity is forecasted to increase in most parts of the world. As a consequence, new stress-tolerant species and genotypes must be identified and used for future agriculture. Stress....... Although the crop is still mainly produced in Bolivia and Peru, agronomic trials and cultivation are spreading to many other countries. Quinoa maintains productivity on rather poor soils and under conditions of water shortage and high salinity. Moreover, quinoa seeds are an exceptionally nutritious food...

  11. Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Loew

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture. The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

  12. The nuclear option in front of climate change. Associated risks, limitations and inhibition to alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the context of struggle against climate change, the reduction of fossil energy consumption and of the associated carbon dioxide production is considered as the main lever of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and nuclear energy is then a matter of debate as a massively available de-carbonated energy but presenting some unacceptable risks. In this synthesis, the authors first propose an overview of risks which cannot be separated from the use of nuclear energy: proliferation as a major, persistent and often ignored threat, a re-assessed and increasing risk of accident, and an accumulation of wastes, materials and sites. In a second part, they show that it has a limited efficiency on emission reduction: indirect but non-null CO2 emissions, influence of the energy mix, marginal contribution to emission management, declining energetic and climatic role, limited field of action. In the third part, the authors state that nuclear energy could be an inhibitor to the most performing solutions

  13. Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pörtner, Hans O; Knust, Rainer

    2007-01-01

    A cause-and-effect understanding of climate influences on ecosystems requires evaluation of thermal limits of member species and of their ability to cope with changing temperatures. Laboratory data available for marine fish and invertebrates from various climatic regions led to the hypothesis that, as a unifying principle, a mismatch between the demand for oxygen and the capacity of oxygen supply to tissues is the first mechanism to restrict whole-animal tolerance to thermal extremes. We show in the eelpout, Zoarces viviparus, a bioindicator fish species for environmental monitoring from North and Baltic Seas (Helcom), that thermally limited oxygen delivery closely matches environmental temperatures beyond which growth performance and abundance decrease. Decrements in aerobic performance in warming seas will thus be the first process to cause extinction or relocation to cooler waters. PMID:17204649

  14. Mechanical evidence that Australopithecus sediba was limited in its ability to eat hard foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledogar, Justin A; Smith, Amanda L; Benazzi, Stefano; Weber, Gerhard W; Spencer, Mark A; Carlson, Keely B; McNulty, Kieran P; Dechow, Paul C; Grosse, Ian R; Ross, Callum F; Richmond, Brian G; Wright, Barth W; Wang, Qian; Byron, Craig; Carlson, Kristian J; de Ruiter, Darryl J; Berger, Lee R; Tamvada, Kelli; Pryor, Leslie C; Berthaume, Michael A; Strait, David S

    2016-01-01

    Australopithecus sediba has been hypothesized to be a close relative of the genus Homo. Here we show that MH1, the type specimen of A. sediba, was not optimized to produce high molar bite force and appears to have been limited in its ability to consume foods that were mechanically challenging to eat. Dental microwear data have previously been interpreted as indicating that A. sediba consumed hard foods, so our findings illustrate that mechanical data are essential if one aims to reconstruct a relatively complete picture of feeding adaptations in extinct hominins. An implication of our study is that the key to understanding the origin of Homo lies in understanding how environmental changes disrupted gracile australopith niches. Resulting selection pressures led to changes in diet and dietary adaption that set the stage for the emergence of our genus. PMID:26853550

  15. Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers: implications for climate change responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroiss, Steve J; Hillerslambers, Janneke

    2015-05-01

    Seed availability and suitable microsites for germination are likely to severely constrain the responses of plant species to climate change, especially at and beyond range edges. For example, range shifts may be slow if seed availability is low at range edges due to low parent-tree abundance or reduced fecundity. Even when seeds are available, climatic and biotic factors may further limit the availability of suitable microsites for recruitment. Unfortunately, the importance of seed and microsite limitation during range shifts remains unknown, since few studies have examined both factors simultaneously, particularly across species' ranges. To address this issue, we assessed seed availability and the factors influencing germination for six conifer species across a large environmental gradient encompassing their elevational ranges. Specifically, we assessed (1) how parent-tree abundance influences annual seed availability; (2) how seed limitation varies across species' ranges; (3) how climatic and biotic factors affect germination; and (4) how seed and suitable microsite availability covary annually within and among species. We found that seed availability declined toward species' upper range edges for most species, primarily due to low parent-tree abundance rather than declining fecundity. Range expansions are thus likely to be lagged with respect to climate change, as long generation times preclude rapid increases in tree density. Negative impacts of canopy cover on germination rates suggest range shifts will further be slowed by competition with existing vegetation. Moreover, years of high seed production were generally correlated among species, but not correlated with the availability of suitable microsites, implying that seedling competition and the interaction between seed and microsite limitation will further constrain recruitment. However, the nature of microsite limitation varied strongly between treeline and low-elevation species due to differing responses

  16. Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian J Das

    Full Text Available Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1 drought stress, or (2 the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

  17. Opportunities and challenges in enhancing food production and security in the context of climate change effects in sub Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Never Assan

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This discussion  explores the opportunities and challenges in enhancing  food production and security in the context of  climatic variability in Sub Saharan Africa. The promotion of sustainable use of plant and animal products with emphasis on satisfying basic human needs, improving people’s standard of living, enhancing food security and reducing poverty have taken a center stage in Sub Saharan Africa. However, the efforts in this direction  are being impacted negatively by climate change,  through animal and crop production which have not been spared due to the natural disasters and environmental challenges which have affected all regions of Sub Saharan Africa indiscriminately. Climate is a particularly important driver of food production systems performance at the agriculture end of the food chain. It can affect the quantities and types of food produced as well as production-related income especially for the poor resource farmers. In order to be able to adequately address food production and security in the context of climate,  there is need for the region to carry out thorough climatic vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Supporting research and  training of experts to carry out vulnerability and adaptation assessments on crop and  livestock production is crucial in order for respective  countries to develop climate change adaptation measures to meet the obligation on food production and  security. Sub Saharan Africa’s agro-ecological regions are variable and need to develop specific adaptive measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Due to the changing climatic conditions which the continent  has already witnessed many severe climatic induced vulnerability such as decline in rainfall amounts and intensity, reduced length of rain season and increasing warm and occasionally very hot conditions has affected food production and security. Crop and livestock production systems will need to adapt to higher ambient

  18. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ON FOOD SECURITY IN INDIA: A REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankita Sanadhya

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Today, the world is facing great challenges to produce adequate food, fiber, feed, industrial products, and ecosystem services for the Earth’s 6.4 billion people. Climate changes and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Climate change is affecting the food quality because of the increasing temperature and decreasing crop growth period. With nearly 80 million added every year, we must develop ecosystem goods and services to meet the needs of 8 billion by the year 2025 and over 10 billion by 2050. Global warming is a major and controversial issue all over the world, it affects many aspects of life; agriculture, plant and animal biodiversity, environment and socio-economic well being. Environmental changes have important implications, some positive and others negative, for future crop yield and production. Global warming will bring about heat stresses on plants that will even affect the types of crop grown; hence plant breeding programmers need to make necessary changes to adopt environment-specific approaches to crop improvement for fulfilling additional demands on crop production.

  19. Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Ruhul Amin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The crops that we grow for food need specific climatic conditions to show better performance in view of economic yield. A changing climate could have both beneficial and harmful effects on crops. Keeping the above view in mind, this study is undertaken to investigate the impacts of climate change (viz. changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine on the yield and cropping area of four major food crops (viz. Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat in Bangladesh. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard error (HAC and feasible generalized least square (FGLS methods were used to determine the climate-crop interrelations using national level time series data for the period of 1972–2010. Findings revealed that the effects of all the climate variables have had significant contributions to the yield and cropping area of major food crops with distinct variation among them. Maximum temperature statistically significantly affected all the food crops’ yield except Aus rice. Maximum temperature also insignificantly affected cropping area of all the crops. Minimum temperature insignificantly affected Aman rice but benefited other three crops’ yield and cropping area. Rainfall significantly benefitted cropping area of Aus rice, but significantly affected both yield and cropping area of Aman rice. Humidity statistically positively contributed to the yield of Aus and Aman rice but, statistically, negatively influenced the cropping area of Aus rice. Sunshine statistically significantly benefitted only Boro rice yield. Overall, maximum temperature adversely affected yield and cropping area of all the major food crops and rainfall severely affected Aman rice only. Concerning the issue of climate change and ensuring food security, the respective authorities thus should give considerable attention to the generation, development and extension of drought (all major food crops and flood (particularly Aman

  20. Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

    2015-01-01

    contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient......Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at......, increased kin selection in smaller populations, and an emergent fitness asymmetry that favoured dispersal in low-quality habitat. However, this initial dispersal advantage at low-fitness RLs did not facilitate climate tracking, as it was outweighed by an increased probability of extinction. Locally adapted...

  1. Facing the limit of resilience: perceptions of climate change among reindeer herding Sami in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Furberg

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic area is a part of the globe where the increase in global temperature has had the earliest noticeable effect and indigenous peoples, including the Swedish reindeer herding Sami, are amongst the first to be affected by these changes.To explore the experiences and perceptions of climate change among Swedish reindeer herding Sami.In-depth interviews with 14 Swedish reindeer herding Sami were performed, with purposive sampling. The interviews focused on the herders experiences of climate change, observed consequences and thoughts about this. The interviews were analysed using content analysis. One core theme emerged from the interviews: facing the limit of resilience. Swedish reindeer-herding Sami perceive climate change as yet another stressor in their daily struggle. They have experienced severe and more rapidly shifting, unstable weather with associated changes in vegetation and alterations in the freeze–thaw cycle, all of which affect reindeer herding. The forecasts about climate change from authorities and scientists have contributed to stress and anxiety. Other societal developments have lead to decreased flexibility that obstructs adaptation. Some adaptive strategies are discordant with the traditional life of reindeer herding, and there is a fear among the Sami of being the last generation practising traditional reindeer herding.The study illustrates the vulnerable situation of the reindeer herders and that climate change impact may have serious consequences for the trade and their overall way of life. Decision makers on all levels, both in Sweden and internationally, need improved insights into these complex issues to be able to make adequate decisions about adaptive climate change strategies.

  2. Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

  3. Plant transpiration and groundwater dynamics in water-limited climates: Impacts of hydraulic redistribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiangyu; Liang, Xu; Lin, Jeen-Shang

    2016-06-01

    The role of groundwater in sustaining plant transpiration constitutes an important but not well-understood aspect of the interactions between groundwater, vegetation, the land surface, and the atmosphere. The effect of the hydraulic redistribution (HR) process by plant roots on the interplay between plant transpiration and groundwater dynamics under water-limited climates is investigated by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity Plus (VIC+) land surface model. Numerical experiments, with or without explicitly considering HR, are conducted on soil columns over a range of groundwater table depths (GWTDs) under different vegetative land covers, soil types, and precipitation conditions. When HR is not included, this study obtains transpiration-GWTD relationships consistent with those from watershed studies that do not include HR. When HR is included, the transpiration-GWTD relationships are modified. The modification introduced by HR is manifested in the soil moisture of the root zone. The mechanism of HR is explained by detailing the roles of the hydraulically redistributed water, the upward diffusion of soil water, and the daytime root uptake. We have found that HR is particularly important in water-limited climates under which plants have high transpiration demand. At the beginning stage of a dry period, HR modulates the severe impacts that climate has on plant transpiration. Only after a prolonged dry period, impacts of HR are lessened when the groundwater table drops below the depth of water uptake by roots and are diminished when plant transpiration is decoupled from groundwater dynamics.

  4. Food webs patterns in species-poor insular lakes resemble climate-related patterns in continental lakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Nicolas; Amsinck, Susanne Lildal; Goncalves, Vitor;

    2015-01-01

    island groups with contrasting climates but similar seasonality: The Faroe Islands (cold; 6.5±2.8°C) and the Azores (warm; 17.3±2.9°C). We analysed community and food web structure using a stable isotopes approach investigating fish, macro-invertebrates, and zooplankton in 20 lakes. We found a smaller...... mean body size of fish in the Azorean lakes even if standardised by maximum length of the fish species present, suggesting a higher predation pressure on zooplankton and consequently higher phytoplankton abundance at the same nutrient levels. A triangular shape of the food web, with wider carbon range...... for basal organisms and for the whole food web appeared in the colder lakes. In contrast to previous works, though, Layman metrics of the fish food web were similar between the two climatic regions despite differences in basal organisms. Our results from insular systems showed a reduced fish body size...

  5. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  6. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of climatic shifts on the production and processing of native and traditional crops in the Bolivian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alder eKeleman Saxena

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data was collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed-methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes a the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia; and b the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp., oca (Oxalis tuberosa, tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis, papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus, and charkay (llama or sheep jerky. Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Further, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. While these findings are drawn from a single case-study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, indigenous food systems. Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture, and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  7. The Organizational Climate as a Factor of Competitiveness in the Fast Food Franchises in Tijuana, B.C., Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Virginia Flores-Oritz; Alfonso Vega-Lopez; Edgar ARmando Chavez-Moreno

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship that exists between organizational climate as a factor of competitiveness in the franchising of fast food in Tijuana, BC. No doubt the primary asset of the organization is the human resource since it is through a good working team that the company achieves its objectives and goals. This ensures their development and market positioning and does not leave aside the organizational climate and the importance it has within the companies. Here the purpose of...

  8. A Model for the Effect of Toxicant on a Three Species Food-Chain System with "Food-Limited" Growth of Prey Population

    OpenAIRE

    Misra, O. P.; Raveendra Babu.A

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the effect of toxicant in a three species food chain system with "food-limited" growth of prey population. The mathematical model is formulated using the system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In the model, there are seven state variables, viz, prey density, intermediate predator density, density of top predator, concentration of toxicant in the environment, concentration of toxicant in the prey, concentratio...

  9. Hydrological impact of climate change in a Mediterranean catchment with limited data availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R.

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is one of the areas of the world where climate changes due to global warming are expected to be more significant. Future scenarios predicted by global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) indicate a decrease in water availability, which will lead to social and economic consequences, mainly affecting the agricultural sector. Reducing the uncertainty in the quantification of the climate changes impacts in Mediterranean watersheds is the main goal of the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) project, funded by the 7th EU Framework Programme. One of the study sites of CLIMB is the Rio Mannu at Monastir (473 km2) basin, located in an agricultural area of Southern Sardinia, Italy, that has experienced severe drought periods during the last 30 years with dramatic decreases of crop productivity. To quantify the climate change impacts, outputs of four RCMs are used to force a distributed and physically-based hydrologic model, known as TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS). In this study, we first illustrate the tRIBS model calibration, using the limited dataset available in the Rio Mannu basin, a common feature in most regions of the world. In our study site, hydrometeorological data (streamflow, precipitation, temperature and meteorological variables) are available at different resolution and during non-overlapping periods. To create the database at hourly resolution required for tRIBS application, we designed two downscaling strategies, aimed at (i) disaggregating precipitation from daily to hourly resolution using a multifractal model, and (ii) obtaining reference evapotranspiration at hourly time scale from daily records of minimum and maximum temperature. We demonstrate how the downscaling tools are able to generate a reliable database to calibrate the hydrologic model, and how they can be used to disaggregate coarse outputs of climate models. In a second part of the study, the

  10. Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commonsâ€

    OpenAIRE

    Saeb Khresat; Mohammad R. Hamdan; Marwan Suifan; Ayman Suleiman; Mohammad Salahat; Jawad Taleb Al-Bakri; Tarek Kandakji

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of climate change and land use change on water resources and food security in Jordan. The country is dominated by arid climate with limited arable land and water resources, where the per capita share of water is less than 145 m 3 /year. The study focused on crop production and water resources under trends of anticipated climate change and population growth in the country. Remote sensing data were used to determine land use/cover changes and rates of urbaniza...

  11. Agro-Climatic Characterization and Determination of Thermal and Pluviometric Limits in the Area of Debar, Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALBERT KOPALI

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Different climatic regimes play a determining role not just on the geographical and agronomic distribution of plants, but on the intensity of agricultural plant growth also. Climate affects the mass of structural features and especially the pace of plants development. Regarding climate Albanian territory is part of the sub-band subtropical western coast and it is divided into two climatic zones: Atlantic Mediterranean area and Continental Mediterranean area. But the microclimatic effects arising in our territory make the climate quite diverse. In a relatively small area major changes of climate elements are created, thus a variety of areas with different climatic characteristics and determining impacts on agricultural plant breeding are present. Knowing of the thermal and rainfall limits is important in the cultivation of agricultural plants; the lack of knowledge poses a risk to agricultural cultivations. On the other hand these limits must be seen closely linked to their dynamism and should be studied in relation to possible climate changes. In accordance with the climatic characteristics of agro-ecological zones, should be developed plant cultivation technologies which should take into account the different agricultural systems that are applied in these areas. This study takes into consideration for agro-climatic characterization a developed agricultural area, that of Debar, in the northeast of Albania.

  12. Research or Carbon Capture and Storage – How to limit climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    Kollenbach, Gilbert

    2014-01-01

    The consequences of the 2° C climate target and the implicitly imposed ceiling on CO2 have been analyzed in several studies. We use an endogenous rowth model with a ceiling and a carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to study the effect of the ceiling on the allocation of limited funds for R&D, CCS and capital accumulation. It turns out that the advantagenousness of CCS investments rise with the CO2 stock. If the gains of CCS, in terms of lower energy costs, outweigh the gains of R&D an...

  13. Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

    2013-05-01

    Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

  14. Food Security Index and Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change on Rural Farming Households in Delta State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emaziye, P. O.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the food security status and the socio-economic effects of climate change on rural farming households in Delta State, Nigeria. The main objective of the study was to determine the food security status of the rural farming households in the state while the specific objective was to determine the socio-economic effects of climate change on rural farming households in the state. Multistage sampling procedure was used in the random selection of local government, communities and rural households for the research study. The data for the study were obtained with the aids of structured questionnaire survey randomly administered to rural farming households in the state. Food security index was used to determine the level of food insecurity (food security status among the rural households in communities that have been affected by flood and or other climate hazardswhile descriptive statistics was used to summarize the socio-economic effects and their food security status of the rural farming households in the state. Most respondents (65.10% were married with low annual income of N54,702 ($353 which is less than the poverty line of less than $1 (one dollar a day. Most rural farming households witnessed loss of investment on farm lands, lives and income respectively in the state. The study also reveals that rural farming households suffered ill health, such as malaria, water borne diseases and skin infections that were on the increase in the state. The study also revealed that majority of respondents was moderately food insecure. The study also recommends that Government planning agencies and policy makers should put into consideration these food insecurity situations in their planning and policy implementation to prevent future chronic food insecurity situation in the state.

  15. Food limitation of sea lion pups and the decline of forage off central and southern California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClatchie, Sam; Field, John; Thompson, Andrew R; Gerrodette, Tim; Lowry, Mark; Fiedler, Paul C; Watson, William; Nieto, Karen M; Vetter, Russell D

    2016-03-01

    California sea lions increased from approximately 50 000 to 340 000 animals in the last 40 years, and their pups are starving and stranding on beaches in southern California, raising questions about the adequacy of their food supply. We investigated whether the declining sea lion pup weight at San Miguel rookery was associated with changes in abundance and quality of sardine, anchovy, rockfish and market squid forage. In the last decade off central California, where breeding female sea lions from San Miguel rookery feed, sardine and anchovy greatly decreased in biomass, whereas market squid and rockfish abundance increased. Pup weights fell as forage food quality declined associated with changes in the relative abundances of forage species. A model explained 67% of the variance in pup weights using forage from central and southern California and 81% of the variance in pup weights using forage from the female sea lion foraging range. A shift from high to poor quality forage for breeding females results in food limitation of the pups, ultimately flooding animal rescue centres with starving sea lion pups. Our study is unusual in using a long-term, fishery-independent dataset to directly address an important consequence of forage decline on the productivity of a large marine predator. Whether forage declines are environmentally driven, are due to a combination of environmental drivers and fishing removals, or are due to density-dependent interactions between forage and sea lions is uncertain. However, declining forage abundance and quality was coherent over a large area (32.5-38° N) for a decade, suggesting that trends in forage are environmentally driven. PMID:27069651

  16. The water-energy-food-climate-economics nexus: solving hunger and resource scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2011-12-01

    A nexus refers to the core or to interconnectivity across issues. Addressing the boundary interactions of traditional sectors in an interconnected world as human activities change the physical boundaries of land and climate is an emerging academic and governance discourse. Through contrasting examples from the US and India, I shed light on the descriptive aspects of these connections and feedbacks that define potential impacts or traps for societies, and ponder whether a massive conceptual or numerical Earth System Model can help inform outcomes, or whether there are dominant links at particular scales (physical, social, economic or biological) that characterize the emergent dynamics and define critical equilibrium or transient solutions in certain places. However, the real question is what next given the definition of the nexus? Here, I argue that given the current valuation and management structure of different resource sectors and the associated information flows and sensitivities, the interlinked energy-climate issues can emerge as useful drivers of improved productivity in water-food systems, thus promoting resource and environmental sustainability while promoting economic development. Thus, levers can be found that help steer the course of these complex interacting systems towards desirable sectoral outcomes.

  17. Complex agro-ecosystems for food security in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khumairoh, Uma; Groot, Jeroen Cj; Lantinga, Egbert A

    2012-07-01

    Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers world wide. Alternatively, cocultures consisting of assemblages of plant and animal species can support ecological processes of nutrient cycling and pest control, which may lead to increasing yields and declining susceptibility to extreme weather conditions with increasing complexity of the systems. Here we show that enhancing the complexity of a rice production system by adding combinations of compost, azolla, ducks, and fish resulted in strongly increased grain yields and revenues in a season with extremely adverse weather conditions on East Java, Indonesia. We found that azolla, duck, and fish increased plant nutrient content, tillering and leaf area expansion, and strongly reduced the density of six different pests. In the most complex system comprising all components the highest grain yield was obtained. The net revenues of this system from sales of rice grain, fish, and ducks, after correction for extra costs, were 114% higher than rice cultivation with only compost as fertilizer. These results provide more insight in the agro-ecological processes and demonstrate how complex agricultural systems can contribute to food security in a changing climate. If smallholders can be trained to manage these systems and are supported for initial investments by credits, their livelihoods can be improved while producing in an ecologically benign way. PMID:22957173

  18. Limited Financial Resources Constrain Families' Food Choices. Nutrition, Health and Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Center for Nutrition and Policy Promotion

    1997-01-01

    Personal income is a key factor affecting not only the amount American families spend for food but also the types of food they buy. This article presents results from an analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture's 1987-88 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey, the latest data available on household food consumption for the entire population and for…

  19. Territorial resources, limits and strategies of local development processes and agri-food productions of quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Severino Romano

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to analyse the role that typical products can play in the local development process. Territorial resources involved, limits and strategies for their enhancement are analysed; this analysis will permit both to define the results that have been achieved since nowadays in the local development process and to point out future themes for the research in the field of agricultural economics. The typicality of an agri-food product regards qualitative characteristics that derive from its tie with the territory, this tie becomes a relevant element for the differentiation of the typical product from the others. In this context, the typical product maintains all the specificities associated to its origin, involving also aspects related to the traditions and the culture of the territories, to the collective dimension and to the local knowledge. Consumers tent to look for good which are differentiated and to connect authenticity and local specificity of food with healthiness. Due to the strong socio-economic ties that typical products have with the territory, they play a crucial role in the economy of the local systems and can promote development in lagging areas.

  20. POLICIES FOR LIMITING CLIMATE CHANGE AND DIRECTIONS FOR THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAUL CALANTER

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The success in achieving the Europe 2020 national objectives depends on the implementation at national level of structural reforms needed to accelerate a growth that is smart, sustainable and favourable to inclusion. The national reform programmes (PNR represent an obligation for each Member State to “translate” at national level the Europe 2020 objectives. In the Romanian National Reform Programme were established, among other priorities, the improvement of the quality of life through sustainable management of renewable resources and mitigation of climate change effects, increasing the energy efficiency, the management of natural resources and pollution reduction. In this paper there will be analyzed the general objectives of the climate change limitation and combating, the strategies to reduce climate change, implemented at the global, european and national level, and also directions for development of the electricity sector. In terms of global strategies, the main measures adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and through the major Conferences of Parties will be analyzed. At the European level, will be examined the Community objectives relating to the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions and the adopted measures to meet the proposed targets, and at the national level there will be evaluated the measures through which Romania implements the policies set at the global and community level. Regarding the directions of development of the energy sector at the European level there will be exposed and analyzed the measures imposed by the European Commission and the Member States, and at the national level, the main directions for action of the energy sector in Romania.

  1. Exploring the energy-water-food-climate nexus for the Indian Economy in 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taheripour, F.; Hertel, T. W.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.

    2014-12-01

    The economy of India is expected to face serious environmental challenges over the coming decades. Population growth, coupled with economic growth of nearly 7%/year to 2030 will translate into strong growth in energy demands - particularly electricity. The electricity sector's claim on total available water could grow from 4% to more than 10% in India in 2030, if the use of wet cooling technologies persists (IGES 2013). Water-saving, dry cooling technologies are available for coal-fired power plants, but this requires significant investment and must be done at the time of construction. Growing water demands from electricity generation, when coupled with industrial, residential and commercial demands, are projected to result in water shortages for irrigation in some key river basins such as Indus, Ganges, Subernarekha, Krishna, and Chotanagpui (Rosegrant et al., 2013). The resulting pressure on agricultural production is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, which itself may increase demands for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to higher temperatures and more variable rainfall (AgMIP, 2013). In this paper we examine the impact of water scarcity on economic growth, food, and energy security in India using an enhanced version of the GTAP-AEZ-WATER model. We find that investments in water-saving technology in the electricity sector are less costly than developing new water supply. However, even when these technologies are implemented, we project shortfalls in water available for irrigated agriculture. These shortfalls result in the contraction of irrigated area and diminished food production relative to the unconstrained baseline. However, trade could help India to mitigate a portion of this pressure by importing more food products from water abundant regions. In addition, allowing for the trading of water within river basins helps to alleviate some of the consequences of water scarcity.

  2. Climatic variability and plant food distribution in Pleistocene Europe: Implications for Neanderthal diet and subsistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Bruce L.

    2010-03-01

    Contrary to their cold-adapted image, Neanderthals inhabited Pleistocene Europe during a time of great climatic fluctuation with temperatures ranging from as warm as present-day during the last interglacial to as cold as those of the last glacial maximum. Cold-adapted Neanderthals are similarly most often associated with the exploitation of large mammals who are themselves cold-adapted (mammoth, bison, reindeer, etc.). Cold, high-latitude environments are typically seen as lacking in plants generally and in plant foods in particular. Plant foods are therefore usually ignored and Neanderthals are increasingly being viewed as top carnivores who derived the vast majority of their diet from meat. Support for this hypothesis comes largely from stable isotope analysis which tracks only the protein portion of the diet. Diets high in lean meat largely fulfill micronutrient needs but can pose a problem at the macronutrient level. Lean meat can compose no more than 35% of dietary energy before a protein ceiling is reached. Exceeding the protein ceiling can have detrimental physiological effects on the individual. Neanderthals would have needed energy from alternative sources, particularly when animals are fat-depleted and lean meat intake is high. Underground storage organs (USOs) of plants offer one such source, concentrating carbohydrates and energy. USOs could also provide an important seasonal energy source since they are at their maximum energy storage in late fall/winter. Although Paleolithic sites are increasingly yielding plant remains, their presence is rare and they are often given only passing mention in Neanderthal dietary reconstructions. The complexity and number of potential wild plant foods, however, defies easy discussion. Native European wild edible plants with starchy USOs would have been potentially available throughout the Neanderthal range, even during the coldest periods of the Late Pleistocene.

  3. Reference evapotranspiration estimate with limited weather data across a range of Mediterranean climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorovic, Mladen; Karic, Biljana; Pereira, Luis S.

    2013-02-01

    SummaryThe standard FAO Penman-Monteith (PM-ETo) method for computing the reference evapotranspiration (ETo), in addition to air temperature, needs data on solar radiation or sunshine duration, relative humidity and wind speed which are often lacking and/or do not respect appropriate quality requirements. Hence, in many cases, ETo has to be estimated with limited weather data using maximum and minimum temperature only. Essentially, two procedures are used when no more than temperature data are available: (i) the well-known Hargreaves-Samani equation (HS), or (ii) the PM-ETo method with weather parameters estimated from the limited available data, called PM temperature (PMT) method. The application of these temperature-based approaches often led to contradictory results for various climates and world regions. The data used in the analysis refer to 577 weather stations available through the CLIMWAT database. The results, confirmed by various statistical indicators, emphasized that: (a) in hyper-arid and arid zones, the performance of HS and PMT methods are similar, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) around 0.60-0.65 mm d-1; (b) in semi-arid to humid climates, the PMT method produced better results than HS, with RMSE smaller than 0.52 mm d-1; (c) the performance of PMT method could be improved when adopting the corrections for aridity/humidity in the estimation of the dew point temperature from minimum temperature data. The spatial elaboration of results indicated high variability of ETo estimates by different methods. Thus, a site-specific analysis using daily datasets of sufficient quality is needed for the validation and calibration of temperature methods for ETo estimate. Maps presenting indicative results on under/over estimation of ETo by both temperature methods may be useful for their more accurate application over different Mediterranean climates.

  4. The Household Economy Approach. Managing the impact of climate change on poverty and food security in developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. Seaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have severe effects on the populations of developing countries because many of these depend heavily on agriculture for income, have large impoverished rural populations which rely on agriculture for subsistence, and are financially and technically least equipped to adapt to changing conditions. Planning to target measures to support adaptation to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty and food insecurity requires methods of identifying vulnerable households. This paper describes an established approach to vulnerability assessment, the ‘Household Economy Approach’ (HEA and its potential application to the management of climate change in developing countries. The HEA is widely used by Governments and others, chiefly in Africa, for the assessment of household vulnerability to poverty and food security. HEA uses a model based on Amartya Sen’s entitlement theory and detailed social and economic data to simulate the impact of weather related, price, policy and other shocks on household income and food access, to provide information for decision making. In developing countries climate change will be experienced in terms of increased climate variability and an increased frequency of extreme events. HEA provides a way of managing the effects of year to year shocks to prevent impoverishment and the erosion of household resilience. It also provides the information needed to develop scenarios to support the design of policies to support longer term adaptation. HEA data has already been collected for large areas of Africa.

  5. Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Naustvoll, L-J;

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal...... on food safety hazards, rather than median or average values only. Furthermore, it is recommended to closely monitor levels of mycotoxins and marine biotoxins in the future, in particular related to risky situations associated with favourable climatic conditions for toxin producing organisms. In...... grains cultivated in the terrestrial area of north west Europe, and on the frequency of harmful algal blooms and contamination of shellfish with marine biotoxins in the North Sea coastal zone. The study focused on contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol, and on abundance of Dinophysis spp. and the...

  6. Essays on food security in sub-Saharan Africa : The role of food prices and climate shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Brunelin, Stéphanie

    2014-01-01

    This doctoral thesis is in line with the renewed interest in research on agriculture and food security, following the 2008 global food crisis. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding of the complex issues surrounding food security. The first chapter investigates whether the changes in the international price of rice are transmitted to the domestic prices of rice in Senegal, Mali and Chad. Results indicate that the domestic prices of imported rice in Dakar and of loca...

  7. Climate change, food systems and population health risks in their eco-social context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, A J; Butler, C D; Dixon, J

    2015-10-01

    The establishment of ecological public health as crucial to modern public health is overdue. While the basic concepts have been gestating for decades, receptivity within broader public health has been limited. This position is changing, not least as the population-level impacts of climate change and, more broadly, of limits to growth are emerging from theory and forecasting into daily reality. This paper describes several key elements of ecological public health thinking. These include the 'environmental' risks to human health (often systemic and disruptive, rather than local and toxic) posed by climate change and other forms of adverse global environmental change. Closer recognition of the links between social and environmental factors has been urged--an 'eco-social' approach--and, relatedly, for greater co-operation between social and natural sciences. The authors revisit critics of capitalism who foresaw the global capture and transformation of ecosystems for material human ends, and their resultant despoliation. The perennial call within public health to reduce vulnerability by lessening poverty is more important than ever, given the multifactored threat to the health of the poor which is anticipated, assuming no radical strategies to alleviate these pressures. But enhanced health security for the poor requires more than the reconfiguring of social determinants; it also requires, as the overarching frame, ecological public health. PMID:25896548

  8. Importance of abiotic stress as a range-limit determinant for European plants: insights from species responses to climatic gradients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Normand, Signe; Treier, Urs; Randin, Christophe; Vittoz, Pascal; Guisan, Antoine; Svenning, J.-C.

    2009-01-01

    Aim We examined whether species occurrences are primarily limited by physiological tolerance in the abiotically more stressful end of climatic gradients (the asymmetric abiotic stress limitation (AASL) hypothesis) and the geographical predictions of this hypothesis: abiotic stress mainly determin...... upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal species range limits, and the importance of abiotic stress for these range limits increases the further northwards and upwards a species occurs...

  9. Larval growth in the dominant polychaete Polydora ciliata is food-limited in a eutrophic Danish estuary (Isefjord)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Troels Møller; Almeda, Rodrigo; Fotel, Frank Lech; Jakobsen, Hans Henrik; Mariani, Patrizio; Hansen, Benni Winding

    2010-01-01

    Food limitation in larval growth of the spionid polychaete Polydora ciliata was examined in a typical eutrophic estuary, Isefjord, in Denmark. In the field, food availability and the energetic requirements of the P. ciliata larval population were measured during 2 different periods in 2004 and 2007...... that together cover the productive part of the year for plankton. In the laboratory, specific growth rates (µ) of larvae reared on natural food suspensions (~0.10 d–1) were always lower than those of larvae reared on phytoplankton-enriched food suspensions (100% retention efficiency for Rhodomonas...... commonly the dominant meroplanktonic larvae (average: 0.5 µg C l–1, range: 0.03 to 2.51 µg C l–1). The available food in the optimal prey size fraction (2004, average:...

  10. Non-limiting food conditions for growth and production of the copepod community in a highly productive upwelling zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escribano, Rubén; Bustos-Ríos, Evelyn; Hidalgo, Pamela; Morales, Carmen E.

    2016-09-01

    Zooplankton production is critical for understanding marine ecosystem dynamics. This work estimates copepod growth and production in the coastal upwelling and coastal transition zones off central-southern Chile (~35 to 37°S) during a 3-year time series (2004, 2005, and 2006) at a fixed shelf station, and from spring-summer spatial surveys during the same period. To estimate copepod production (CP), we used species-biomasses and associated C-specific growth rates from temperature dependent equations (food-saturated) for the dominant species, which we assumed were maximal growth rates (gmax). Using chlorophyll-a concentrations as a proxy for food conditions, we determined a size-dependent half-saturation constant with the Michaelis-Menten equation to derive growth rates (g) under the effect of food limitation. These food-dependent C-specific growth rates were much lower (food resources.

  11. Limited Evidence That Competitive Food and Beverage Practices Affect Adolescent Consumption Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vericker, Tracy C.

    2013-01-01

    Childhood obesity is emerging as a considerable public health problem with no clear antidote. The school food environment is a potential intervention point for policy makers, with competitive food and beverage regulation as a possible policy lever. This research examines the link between competitive food and beverage availability in school and…

  12. Legal Limits on Food Labelling Law: Comparative Analysis of the EU and the USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der E.L.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to explore to what extent freedom of expression should protect food businesses against government intervention with corporate communications on food labels. A functional comparative method was used to analyse the objective. It was found that expression on food labels s

  13. A Model for the Effect of Toxicant on a Three Species Food-Chain System with "Food-Limited" Growth of Prey Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.P. Misra

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the effect of toxicant in a three species food chain system with "food-limited" growth of prey population. The mathematical model is formulated using the system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In the model, there are seven state variables, viz, prey density, intermediate predator density, density of top predator, concentration of toxicant in the environment, concentration of toxicant in the prey, concentration of toxicant in the intermediate predator and concentration of toxicant in the top predator. In the model, it is assumed that the carrying capacity and growth rate of prey is affected by environmental toxicant. Toxicant is transferred to intermediate predator and top predator populations through food chain pathways.All the feasible equilibria of the system are obtained and the conditions are determined for the survival or extinction of species under the effect of toxicant. The local and global stability analysis of all the feasibleequilibria are carried out.Further, the results are compared with the case when toxicant is absent in the system. Finally, we support our analytical findings with numerical simulations.Keywords: Food chain; Toxicant; Food-Limited Growth; Stability; Lyapunov function.

  14. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

  15. Assessing the Potential and Limitations of Leveraging Food Sovereignty to Improve Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Fink Shapiro, Lilly; Wilson, Mark L.

    2015-01-01

    Food sovereignty has been defined as “the right of peoples to healthy and culturally appropriate food produced through ecologically sound and sustainable methods, and their right to define their own food and agriculture systems.” Human health is an implied component of this definition through the principle of healthy food. In fact, improved human health is commonly cited as a benefit of transforming food production away from the dominant practices of industrial agriculture. Yet, does the use of “ecologically sound and sustainable methods” of food production necessarily translate into better human health outcomes? Does greater choice in defining an agricultural or food system create gains in health and well-being? We elucidate the conceptual linkages between food sovereignty and human health, critically examine the empirical evidence supporting or refuting these linkages, and identify research gaps and key priorities for the food sovereignty-human health research agenda. Five domains of food sovereignty are discussed including: (1) use of agroecological management practices for food production, (2) the localization of food production and consumption, (3) promotion of social justice and equity, (4) valuation of traditional knowledge, and (5) the transformation of economic and political institutions and structures to support self-determination. We find that although there are many plausible linkages between food sovereignty and human health, the empirical evidence in support of the hypothesis that increasing food sovereignty yields improvements to human health is weak. We propose that a concerted effort to generate new empirical evidence on the health implications of these domains of food sovereignty is urgently needed, and suggest areas of research that may be crucial for addressing the gaps in the evidence base. PMID:26636062

  16. Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere

    OpenAIRE

    Schloss, Carrie A.; Nuñez, Tristan A.; Lawler, Joshua J.

    2012-01-01

    As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species wil...

  17. 21 CFR 862.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 862.9 Section 862.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES CLINICAL CHEMISTRY...

  18. Evaporation-limited tropical temperatures as a constraint on climate sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies of paleoclimate and modern observations indicate that evaporative effects limit thermal response in equatorial regions. We develop a latitude-resolved, steady-state energy balance model which incorporates the effect of an evaporative constraint on the variation of equatorial temperature with solar luminosity. For a diffusive model of surface heat transport the constraint requires the diffusion coefficient to vary with insolation. We find that the movement of the iceline with insolation is four times larger than in standard energy balance models with a constant thermal diffusion coefficient. This is a consequence of the global energy blanace which forces temperature changes to occur at high latitudes when they are evaporatively buffered at the equator. Nonlinear temperature-ice albedo feedback at high latitudes then amplifies the response leading to greater sensitivity in the vicnity of current climate

  19. Quantifying the effects of limited CO2 fertilization on future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erickson, D; Govindasamy, B; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Thompson, S L; Delire, C; Milovich, J; Wickett, M

    2004-04-06

    The response of the land biosphere to the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} is not fully understood. To evaluate the approximate upper and lower limits of land sequestration of carbon, we performed simulations using a comprehensive carbon-climate model. In one case the land biosphere is vigorously fertilized by added CO{sub 2} and sequesters carbon throughout the 21st century. In a second case, CO{sub 2} fertilization saturates in year 2000; in this case the land becomes an additional source of CO{sub 2} by 2050. The predicted atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration at year 2100 differs by 40% between the two cases. Current uncertainties preclude determination of whether the land biosphere will amplify or damp atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases by the end of the century.

  20. Effects of limited food intake and vitamin C supplementation on pancreatic glucagon and insulin in guinea pigs

    OpenAIRE

    B. Kaplan; Gönül, B.; Erdogan, D; Elbeg, S

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of limited food intake (LFI) (24, 48 and 120 h) and a single i.p. dose of vitamin C supplementation (500 mg/kg) on serum glucose and C-peptide levels, and pancreatic insulin and glucagon levels in guinea pigs. The highest serum glucose levels were found after vitamin C supplementation plus LFI for 48 h (LFI 48). Serum C-peptide levels were not significantly affected by food limitation (LFI 24, LFI 48, or LFI 120) as compared with controls, ...

  1. Food irradiation technology - A general overview of its benefits and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Food production and marketing are being transformed by urbanization, technological change, consumer demands, regulatory requirements and increasing interdependence among countries and regions. In every country, the agri-food sector is a large, vital component of economic development, both in national and international terms. Within this changing environment, the commercialization of new agri-food technologies is becoming more difficult and challenging. Food irradiation appears to be facing similar objections to those experienced by ''pasteurization'' many decades ago. However, a general consensus has been achieved among governments that irradiation, from gamma or electron sources, can contribute positively to food security, safety and global food trade. Intergovernmental collaboration has lead to standards, codes of practice, guidelines, training and good sources of information on food irradiation. Wise application of these resources in an open manner will lead to the successful introduction of new food irradiation facilities and to global trade in irradiated foods. The addition of irradiation preservation to existing food technologies will broaden our overall capability to maintain agricultural and fisheries produce in a safe condition and, as well, to market quality products. (author). 10 refs

  2. Book review: the two degrees dangerous limit for climate change: public understanding and decision making by Christopher Shaw

    OpenAIRE

    Wall, Derek

    2015-01-01

    In The Two Degrees Dangerous Limit for Climate Change: Public Understanding and Decision Making, Christopher Shaw explores environmental policymaking by focusing on the public circulation of 2°C as the widely cited maximum figure by which temperatures can be allowed to rise. Derek Wall praises the book for combining natural science and social science to offer a well-researched and provocative interrogation of policy claims made about climate change.

  3. Climate and soil properties limit the positive effects of land use reversion on carbon storage in Eastern Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Rabbi, S.M.F.; Matthew Tighe; Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo; Annette Cowie; Fiona Robertson; Ram Dalal; Kathryn Page; Doug Crawford; Brian R. Wilson; Graeme Schwenke; Malem Mcleod; Warwick Badgery; Yash P. Dang; Mike Bell; Garry O’Leary

    2015-01-01

    Australia’s “Direct Action” climate change policy relies on purchasing greenhouse gas abatement from projects undertaking approved abatement activities. Management of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural soils is an approved activity, based on the expectation that land use change can deliver significant changes in SOC. However, there are concerns that climate, topography and soil texture will limit changes in SOC stocks. This work analyses data from 1482 sites surveyed across the major a...

  4. Persistent palatable food preference in rats with a history of limited and extended access to methamphetamine self-administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caprioli, Daniele; Zeric, Tamara; Thorndike, Eric B; Venniro, Marco

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies have shown that when given a mutually exclusive choice between cocaine and palatable foods, most rats prefer the non-drug rewards over cocaine. Here, we used a discrete choice procedure to assess whether palatable food preference generalizes to rats with a history of limited (3 hours/day) or extended (6 or 9 hours/day) access to methamphetamine self-administration. On different daily sessions, we trained rats to lever-press for either methamphetamine (0.1-0.2 mg/kg/infusion) or palatable food (five pellets per reward delivery) for several weeks; regular food was freely available. We then assessed food-methamphetamine preference either during training, after priming methamphetamine injections (0.5-1.0 mg/kg), following a satiety manipulation (palatable food exposure in the home cage) or after 21 days of withdrawal from methamphetamine. We also assessed progressive ratio responding for palatable food and methamphetamine. We found that independent of the daily drug access conditions and the withdrawal period, the rats strongly preferred the palatable food over methamphetamine, even when they were given free access to the palatable food in the home cage. Intake of methamphetamine and progressive ratio responding for the drug, both of which increased or escalated over time, did not predict preference in the discrete choice test. Results demonstrate that most rats strongly prefer palatable food pellets over intravenous methamphetamine, confirming previous studies using discrete choice procedures with intravenous cocaine. Results also demonstrate that escalation of drug self-administration, a popular model of compulsive drug use, is not associated with a cardinal feature of human addiction of reduced behavioral responding for non-drug rewards. PMID:25582886

  5. Le défi climatique : les limites des politiques publiquesThe Climate Challenge: the limits of public policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourg, Dominique

    2003-06-01

    Can democratic societies organise the energy diet imposed by the prevention of climate change? What would be the difficulties to overcome? This challenge could not be met without changing the nature of public policies and without learning how to determine collectively new individual lifestyles, not separable from duties. To cite this article: D. Bourg, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).

  6. By how much would limiting TV food advertising reduce childhood obesity?

    OpenAIRE

    Veerman, J Lennert; van Beeck, Eduard F.; Barendregt, Jan J; Mackenbach, Johan P.

    2009-01-01

    Background: There is evidence suggesting that food advertising causes childhood obesity. The strength of this effect is unclear. To inform decisions on whether to restrict advertising opportunities, we estimate how much of the childhood obesity prevalence is attributable to food advertising on television (TV). Methods: We constructed a mathematical simulation model to estimate the potential effects of reducing the exposure of 6- to 12-year-old US children to TV advertising for food on the pre...

  7. Using tropical forest ecosystem goods and services for planning climate change adaptation with implications for food security and poverty reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Nkem

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forest ecosystems represent a common heritage with livelihood portfolios shared by a great majority of people especially in developing countries but are now threatened by climate change. In spite of their contribution to poverty alleviation and food security, and also for climate change responses (adaptation and mitigation especially through the market-incentive schemes (CDM of the Kyoto Protocol forests are still hardly integrated into national planning processes aimed at addressing any of these national development challenges. This is evident in some of the national documents of some developing countries such as the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP to the World Bank, and the First National Communication to UNFCCC. This paper presents some preliminary outcomes of the Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA project of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR whose overall mission is to underscore the importance of tropical forests for livelihood adaptation to climate change and mainstreaming adaptation into national development processes. The paper also highlights TroFCCA’s approach in engaging stakeholders from the onset in setting the agenda with the identification and prioritization of forest-based sectors as the entry point in the process of assessing the vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for these selected development sectors. This is a highly crucial area with great policy implications. Planning with ecosystem goods and services seems to emerge as a prospective approach to demonstrate to policymakers the potential of forest ecosystems for livelihood adaptation to climate change which also enhances the opportunity for achieving food security and community resilience to poverty. TroFCCA’s approach in engaging stakeholders at the onset in defining their perception of ecosystem goods and services by virtue of their importance to household livelihoods and their

  8. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    OpenAIRE

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    Background. The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute...

  9. Geographical and climatic limits of needle types of one- and two-needled pinyon pines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, K.L.; Fisher, J.; Arundel, S.T.; Cannella, J.; Swift, S.

    2008-01-01

    Aim: The geographical extent and climatic tolerances of one- and two-needled pinyon pines (Pinus subsect. Cembroides) are the focus of questions in taxonomy, palaeoclimatology and modelling of future distributions. The identification of these pines, traditionally classified by one- versus two-needled fascicles, is complicated by populations with both one- and two-needled fascicles on the same tree, and the description of two more recently described one-needled varieties: the fallax-type and californiarum-type. Because previous studies have suggested correlations between needle anatomy and climate, including anatomical plasticity reflecting annual precipitation, we approached this study at the level of the anatomy of individual pine needles rather than species. Location: Western North America. Methods: We synthesized available and new data from field and herbarium collections of needles to compile maps of their current distributions across western North America. Annual frequencies of needle types were compared with local precipitation histories for some stands. Historical North American climates were modelled on a c. 1-km grid using monthly temperature and precipitation values. A geospatial model (ClimLim), which analyses the effect of climate-modulated physiological and ecosystem processes, was used to rank the importance of seasonal climate variables in limiting the distributions of anatomical needle types. Results: The pinyon needles were classified into four distinct types based upon the number of needles per fascicle, needle thickness and the number of stomatal rows and resin canals. The individual needles fit well into four categories of needle types, whereas some trees exhibit a mixture of two needle types. Trees from central Arizona containing a mixture of Pinus edulis and fallax-type needles increased their percentage of fallax-type needles following dry years. All four needle types occupy broader geographical regions with distinctive precipitation regimes

  10. Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Bosello, Francesco; Zhang, Jian

    2005-01-01

    The economy-wide implications of climate change on agricultural sectors in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Peculiar to this exercise is the coupling of the economic model with a climatic model forecasting temperature increase in the relevant year and with a crop-growth model estimating climate change impact on cereal productivity. The main results of the study point out on the one hand the limited influence of climate change on world food supply and wel...

  11. Present limits to heat-adaptability in corals and population-level responses to climate extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard M Riegl

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1-3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33-35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as "critically endangered". We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world's most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.

  12. The Effects of Supplementary Food on the Breeding Performance of Eurasian Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus; Implications for Climate Change Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vafidis, James O; Vaughan, Ian P; Jones, T Hefin; Facey, Richard J; Parry, Rob; Thomas, Robert J

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which climate variation can drive population changes requires information linking climate, local conditions, trophic resources, behaviour and demography. Climate change alters the seasonal pattern of emergence and abundance of invertebrate populations, which may have important consequences for the breeding performance and population change of insectivorous birds. In this study, we examine the role of food availability in driving behavioural changes in an insectivorous migratory songbird; the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. We use a feeding experiment to examine the effect of increased food supply on different components of breeding behaviour and first-brood productivity, over three breeding seasons (2012-2014). Reed warblers respond to food-supplementation by advancing their laying date by up to 5.6 days. Incubation periods are shorter in supplemented groups during the warmest mean spring temperatures. Nestling growth rates are increased in nests provisioned by supplemented parents. In addition, nest predation is reduced, possibly because supplemented adults spend more time at the nest and faster nestling growth reduces the period of vulnerability of eggs and nestlings to predators (and brood parasites). The net effect of these changes is to advance the fledging completion date and to increase the overall productivity of the first brood for supplemented birds. European populations of reed warblers are currently increasing; our results suggest that advancing spring phenology, leading to increased food availability early in the breeding season, could account for this change by facilitating higher productivity. Furthermore, the earlier brood completion potentially allows multiple breeding attempts. This study identifies the likely trophic and behavioural mechanisms by which climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology and abundance may lead to changes in breeding phenology, nest survival and net reproductive

  13. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Tingem Munang; Ibrahim Thiaw; Mike Rivington

    2011-01-01

    This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production an...

  14. Climate Change and Agriculture: Can market governance mechanisms reduce emissions from the food system fairly and effectively?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garnett, Tara

    2012-05-15

    Climate and agriculture are inextricably linked: the climate affects agricultural production and is itself affected by agricultural emissions. Agriculture is responsible for 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. How agriculture is practised therefore has significant potential for mitigating climate change, for providing food security and for improving the livelihoods of millions of food producers worldwide. There is growing interest in the use of market governance mechanisms for tackling climate change by giving the financial incentives to make the kinds of changes that are required. But how widely are these mechanisms being used in agriculture, and are they effective in reducing emissions? What impact do they have on adaptation and other aspects of sustainable development? Are they able to balance the competing demands of producers and consumers, the environment and food security? The key messages emerging from this study are that economic measures have a vital part to play within this regulatory context, but they need to be designed with care. To be effective, emissions from food production and consumption must be addressed together. If not, emissions reduced in one region will simply be displaced elsewhere. A balance needs to be struck by applying a mix of approaches – regulatory, economic, voluntary, and information: no single measure will be effective in achieving emissions reductions on its own. 'Soft' measures, such as voluntary agreements and information have a part to play in providing an enabling context for action, but they must be backed up by 'harder' regulatory or economic measures. Regulation, in the form of a cap on emissions, is a prerequisite for other market governance measures to function well. To be effective, MGMs need to consider the social, cultural and economic context within which they operate.

  15. The impact of climate change on existing and emerging microbial threats across the food chain: an island of Ireland perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Stewart, Linda D.; Elliott, Christopher T.

    2015-01-01

    The Agri-Food and aquaculture industries are vital to the economy of the island of Ireland with a gross annual output that is expected to double in the future. Identifying and understanding the potential influences of the anticipated climate variables on microorganisms that cause foodborne diseases, and their impact on these local industries, are essential. Investigating and monitoring foodborne pathogens and factors that influence their growth, transmission, pathogenesis and survival will fa...

  16. Essays on the Economics of Climate Change, Biofuel and Food Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Seguin, Charles

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to be the most important global pollution problem that humanity has had to face so far. In this dissertation, I tackle issues directly and indirectly related to climate change, bringing my modest contribution to the body of human creativity trying to deal with climate change. First, I look at the impact of non-convex feedbacks on the optimal climate policy. Second, I try to derive the optimal biofuel policy acknowledging the potential negative impacts that biofuel pro...

  17. Latitudinal variation in avian incubation attentiveness and a test of the food limitation hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalfoun, A.D.; Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    Avian incubation attentiveness has important fitness consequences through its influence on the number and quality of hatched young and energetic costs imposed on parents. Nest attentiveness is highly variable across species and geographical regions. We reviewed the literature and found a worldwide pattern that nest attentiveness of passerines is generally lower in south temperate and tropical regions than in north temperate regions. We also conducted a food manipulation experiment to assess the extent to which nest attentiveness may reflect proximate responses versus an evolved behaviour. We used the karoo prinia, Prinia maculosa, in South Africa, which has very low nest attentiveness (???49%) compared with that of many passerine birds. We provided supplemental food during early incubation to experimental females and compared nest attentiveness and on- and off-bout lengths of experimental and paired control females.??Nest attentiveness of females at food-provisioned nests was significantly higher than that of control females (57% versus 49%). Food-supplemented females also spent significantly less time off the nest than did control females, whereas mean on-bout lengths did not differ. However, mean nest attentiveness of food-provisioned females was still substantially below that of other similar bird species worldwide. Food can be an important proximate influence on parental care behaviour, but proximate influences of food do not explain broad latitudinal patterns of attentiveness. ?? 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

  18. How WRF and HadRM Limited-area Climate Models Perform in Simulating Local Weather and Climate Over the United States Pacific Northwest for 2003-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duliere, V.; Zhang, Y.; Salathé, E. P.; Mote, P.

    2008-12-01

    Recently, there have been increasing efforts over the United States Pacific Northwest in using limited-area climate models for downscaling reanalysis data and global climate model simulations for studies of regional climate and climate change. A minimum condition for the usefulness of such limited-area climate modeling is that these climate models are doing a reasonably good job in simulating the local weather and climate. In this study, we apply the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and HadRM (Hadley Center Regional Model) modeling systems over the Pacific Northwest in downscaling reanalysis data for the period of 2003 through 2007. WRF was developed at NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research). HadRM was released as part of the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) system, which was developed at the Hadley Center of the UK Met Office. The PRECIS system can be easily applied to any area of the globe to generate detailed climate change projections. The WRF domains were set up by using multiple nests at 108 km, 36 km, and 12 km horizontal grid spacing. The domain of HadRM was chosen with the highest available horizontal resolution of 25 km at the equator of the rotated grid. The WRF runs were driven by the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data (R1) and the HadRM runs were driven by the NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis data (R2). In this study, we validate the model simulations in terms of Tmax, Tmin, precipitation and extreme weather events (extreme precipitation event, drought, and heat wave) at various time scales using the observations from the Historical Climatology Network (HCN). Specific issues we will address in this work include: (a) the skill of WRF and HadRM in simulating the observed Tmin, Tmax and precipitation; (b) the performance of WRF and HadRM in representing the observed extreme weather events; and (c) the effect of differences in driving data and grid spacing on the model

  19. Breeding Food Legumes for Resistance to Storage Insect Pests: Potential and Limitations

    OpenAIRE

    Kifle Dagne; Bayeh Mulatu; Tebkew Damte; Emana Getu; Muhammad Imtiaz; Endashaw Bekele; Gemechu Keneni

    2011-01-01

    Storage insect pests cause significant losses of food legumes particularly in the Tropics and the Sub-tropics. The most important species of storage insect pests of food legumes include Callosobruchus chinensis , C. maculatus , C. analis , Acanthoscelides obtectus , Bruchus incarnatus , B. rufimanus , B. dentipes , B. quinqueguttatus , B. emarginatus , B. ervi , B. lentis and B. pisorum . Effective post-harvest insect pest control measures should constitute part of the overall crop husbandry ...

  20. Organic limited: The corporate rise and spectacular change in the Canadian and American organic food sectors

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, Lisa Frances Ellen

    2007-01-01

    The twentieth century saw the rise of industrial food production in North America. It is widely held that industrialized agriculture produces negative social and ecological effects. In response to the exploitive practices of industrialized agriculture, a number of counter-movements emerged in the mid-twentieth century, including the organic farming movement. The traditional principles and practices of organic agriculture presented an alternative form of food production, distribution and consu...

  1. Carbon Markets and Beyond: The Limited Role of Prices and Taxes in Climate and Development Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Ackerman

    2008-01-01

    The climate policy debate has advanced from science to economics, with a growing focus on creating carbon markets and getting the prices right. This is necessary but far from sufficient for an effective and equitable response to the climate challenge. While market-oriented forces such as the IMF and the World Bank have focused almost exclusively on carbon markets, others, such as the Human Development Report and the Stern Review, have emphasized the need for complementary, non-market climate ...

  2. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  3. Smallholder Food and Water Security in the Face of Climatic Stress and the Coffee Leaf Rust: Lessons from Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, I. T.; Bacon, C. M.; Sundstrom, W.

    2015-12-01

    Smallholder farmers in Nicaragua and throughout much of Central America preserve forest biodiversity and contribute to the sustainable production of coffee and other crops while, paradoxically, they themselves must cope with recurring periods of seasonal hunger. Smallholder food and water security in the region is affected by hurricanes, periodic drought events, climatic changes, an on-going outbreak of the coffee leaf rust, and fluctuations in food prices. Using regression analysis, our research examines what factors strengthened resilience to these hazards at the household level over the 1981 - 2014 time period. To this end, we integrate qualitative research on coping responses and local institutions, a participatory survey of 368 households, and an analysis of hydro-climatic data. Our results indicate that coping responses to the coffee leaf rust outbreak and the 2014 drought are comparable in severity to those used to endure Hurricane Mitch in 1998, and a severe 2009 drought. Higher smallholder resilience to stresses affecting food and water security is associated with larger farms, off-farm employment, more on-farm food production, higher numbers of fruit trees, and greater coffee harvests. Households that reported more severe coping responses to hazards earlier in the study period tended to be more strongly impacted by later hazards and reported generally greater seasonal hunger. Affiliation with local farmer-to-farmer institutions prioritizing either subsistence-oriented production or sales to international fair-trade markets did not correlate strongly with coping responses; however, subsistence-oriented institutions promote several resilience-enhancing practices. Lessons learned by adapting to past hazards may be used to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies for smallholders under continued climate variability and change.

  4. Estimating the limits of adaptation from historical behaviour: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in a number of economic sectors [1]. The main analysis presents projections of climate impacts with an assumption of "no adaptation". Yet, historically, when the climate imposed an economic cost upon society, adaptive responses were taken to minimise these costs. These adaptive behaviours, both autonomous and planned, can be expected to occur as climate impacts increase in the future. To understand the extent to which adaptation might decrease some of the worst impacts of climate change, we empirically estimate adaptive responses. We do this in three sectors considered in the analysis - crop yield, crime, and mortality - and estimate adaptive capacity in two steps. First, looking at changes in climate impacts through time, we identify a historical rate of adaptation. Second, spatial differences in climate impacts are then used to stratify regions into more adapted or less adapted based on climate averages. As these averages change across counties in the US, we allow each to become more adapted at the rate identified in step one. We are then able to estimate the residual damages, assuming that only the historical adaptive behaviours have taken place (fig 1). Importantly, we are unable to estimate any costs associated with these adaptations, nor are we able to estimate more novel (for example, new technological discoveries) or more disruptive (for example, migration) adaptive behaviours. However, an important insight is that historical adaptive behaviours may not be capable of reducing the worst impacts of climate change. The persistence of impacts in even the most exposed areas indicates that there are non-trivial costs associated with adaptation that will need to be met from other sources or through novel behavioural changes. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate

  5. Impact of limited cognitive capacity and feelings of guilt and excuse on the endowment effects for hedonic and utilitarian types of food.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonides, G.; Cramer, L.

    2013-01-01

    Consumer food choices may partly be explained by the endowment effect. Here, we focus on the influence of limited cognitive capacity on loss aversion related to food choices. We also investigate the effects of anticipated feelings on food choices. Experiments with 1614 pupils of secondary schools sh

  6. Historical Climate Change Impact-Response Processes Under the Framework of Food Security in China%粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方修琦; 郑景云; 葛全胜

    2014-01-01

    It is one of the core themes of the Past Global Change Sciences (PAGES) that to understand the mechanism and process of the past human-climate-ecosystem’s interaction in various spatial and temporal scales in order to improve the understanding of contemporary climate change impacts and adaptation. The top-ic is also the important theme of historical man/milieu relationships that is a big issue of concern by geogra-phers. In this article, concepts of vulnerability and food security in the regime of Global Changes are used to il-lustrate historical climate change impact-response processes in China. Corresponding to the food access, food availability and food utilization, the food security of historical China is simplified to three levels of food pro-duction safety, food supply safety and food consumption safety. The food production safety was the base of food security which could reflect the social sensitivity to climate change. The food supply safety was the capac-ity of the society to accommodate the crisis of regional food security which could indicate the social capacity to response the impacts of climate change. The food consumption safety was the final state of food security. The insecurity of food consumption was essential for the occurrence of social instability impacted by climate change. The processes related to the impacts of climate change to grain productivity, food supply production se-curity, individual food security, and social security are discussed. For human society, climate change means the changes of climatic resources or disasters. Impacts of climate change occurred from the direct impact on the grain harvest, then transferred further up to the sub-systems of economy, population and society mainly though the impact-response chain of climate change, agriculture harvest per capita food supply, famine, and social sta-bility. However, the impact-response processes of climate change could not be attributed to a simple causality. The initial impact

  7. The Dragons of Inaction: Psychological Barriers That Limit Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Most people think climate change and sustainability are important problems, but too few global citizens engaged in high-greenhouse-gas-emitting behavior are engaged in enough mitigating behavior to stem the increasing flow of greenhouse gases and other environmental problems. Why is that? Structural barriers such as a climate-averse infrastructure…

  8. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schleussner, Carl Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-01-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average

  9. Crop substitution behavior among food crop farmers in Ghana: An efficient adaptation to climate change or costly stagnation in traditional agricultural production system?

    OpenAIRE

    Issahaku, Zakaria A.; Maharjan, Keshav L.

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes impact of climate change on yield, planting decisions and output of five major food crops (cassava, maize, sorghum, rice and yam) in Ghana. Results of Multivariate Tobit Model show that yield, planting decisions and output of cassava, maize, sorghum and rice will increase as a result of climate change. This is in clear contrast to the hypothesis that warming and drying will reduce crop yields in countries located within the tropics. Climate change impact on yields, plantin...

  10. Econometric Analysis of Food Crops’ Response to Climate Variability and Macroeconomic Policies’ Reforms in Nigeria (1978-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onoja, Anthony O.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the extent to which climate variability (proxied by rainfall variability and macroeconomic policies influenced food crop output in Nigeria. It used time series data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics (1978-2009. Four functional forms of OLS models were tried. The Cobb-Douglas function was finally adopted based on standard econometric model selection criteria and diagnosis. Chow test was used to test the hypotheses of the study. It was found that rainfall variability influenced crop output negatively. Climatic factor, loans guaranteed by Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund and lending rate were all statistically significant drivers of crop output in the economy at p<0.05, p<0.01 and p<0.05 respectively. Their elasticities were respectively 4.01%, 0.52% and 0.98%. No structural difference between the economic reform era and the preceding era‟s regression coefficients was found. Programmes to stem corruption and loan diversion; subsidization of agricultural credit and climate change adaptation capacity building programmes were recommended to bring about sustainable food security in the country.

  11. Local agriculture traditional knowledge to avoid erosion in a changing climate: Ensuring agricultural livelihoods and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guadalupe Rivera Ferré, Marta; Di Masso, Marina; Vara, Isabel; Mailhost, Mara; Bhatta, Goppal; Cuellar, Mamem; López-i-Gelats, Feliu; Gallar, Donald

    2015-04-01

    In the regions that experience substantial climatic risks, considerable traditional expertise exists that is underutilized and that could be valuable as a starting point to build more effective strategies for adapting to climate change and ensure food availability. Some of these are agronomic strategies for soil conservation targeting erosion avoidance as a form to ensure soil fertility and thus, crop production and food availability. Following an extensive literature review in the Indogangetic Plans, we have identified many different practices derived from local traditional knowledge that can be classified as i) Reshaping the landscape (terracing, bunding, efficient distribution of land uses); ii) Stream diversion to reduce flood impact (channels along the edges of the fields, embankments, dams, network of ponds, outlets, walls and fencing); and iii) Others (agroforesty, use of specific trees as indicators of soil erosion, crop-fallow rotation, preservation of patches of forests, reforestation, collective management of forests). These endogenous-based practices have a great potential for adaptation since they are more easily adopted by communities, they require of minimum or not external expertise and aid, and usually, are cheaper than other strategies. A combination of local knowledge with other scientific knowledge may be the most effective way to face climate change. This work was performed as part of the CCAFS-Program of the CGIAR in South Asia.

  12. Relationship between Evapotranspiration and Land Surface Temperature under Energy- and Water-Limited Conditions in Dry and Cold Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhigang Sun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Remotely sensed land surface temperature- (LST- dependent evapotranspiration (ET models and vegetation index- (VI- LST methods may not be suitable for ET estimation in energy-limited cold areas. In this study, the relationship of ET to LST was simulated using the process-based Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW model for energy- and water-limited conditions in Mongolia, to understand the differences in ET processes under these two limiting conditions in dry and cold climates. Simulation results from the SHAW model along with ground observational data showed that ET and LST have a positive relationship when air temperature (Ta is less than or equal to the temperature (Ttra above which plants transpire and have a negative relationship when Ta is greater than Ttra under the energy-limited condition. However, ET and LST maintain a negative relationship with changes in Ta under the water-limited condition. The differences in the relationship between ET and LST under the energy-limited and water-limited conditions could be attributed to plant transpiration and energy storage in moist/watered soil and plants. This study suggests that different strategies should be used to estimate ET under the energy-limited condition in dry and cold climates.

  13. Expected climate change impacts on extreme flows in Vietnam: The limits of bias correction techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laux, Patrick; Dang, Thinh; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    We investigate possible impacts of climate change on future floods in the VuGia-ThuBon river basin, central Vietnam using a multi-model climate ensemble. An ensemble of regional climate projections (SRES) derived from different combinations of global and regional climate models in combination with different emission scenarios are used. In order to correct for the biases between the modelled climate variables and the observations, different bias correction techniques such as linear scaling, local intensity scaling, and quantile mapping are applied to the RCM outputs. Bias-corrected and raw climate data are then used as input for the fully distributed hydrological water balance model WaSIM-ETH to reproduce discharge data at NongSon station. Annual maximum discharges are extracted from the modeled daily series from the control period (1980-1999) and the future periods 2011-2030, 2031-2050, and 2080-2099 for subsequent extreme frequency analyses. To derive flood frequency curves for the four time periods, the generalized extreme value probability distribution is fitted to the data. Our analysis shows that actually none of the bias correction approaches applied to the control runs of simulated precipitation data can satisfactorily correct their distributions towards those of the observations. Therefore, this study builds further on the delta change approach, which adjusts the observed extreme values by the derived signals from the hydrological simulations fed by raw future climate projections. Adjusted return periods of e.g. HQ100 values are calculated based on the delta change method. The results inhibit a remarkable variation among the different climate scenarios in representing extreme values. Results show that MRI-MRI, ECHAM3-REMO, HadCMQ10-HadRM3P and HadCMQ13-HadRM3P models always exhibit a positive signal for all considered time slices and climate change scenarios. On the other hand, CCSM-MM5 frequently shows a negative signal for all time slices. On average, an

  14. Non-limiting food conditions for growth and production of the copepod community in a highly productive upwelling zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escribano, Rubén; Bustos-Ríos, Evelyn; Hidalgo, Pamela; Morales, Carmen E.

    2016-09-01

    Zooplankton production is critical for understanding marine ecosystem dynamics. This work estimates copepod growth and production in the coastal upwelling and coastal transition zones off central-southern Chile (~35 to 37°S) during a 3-year time series (2004, 2005, and 2006) at a fixed shelf station, and from spring-summer spatial surveys during the same period. To estimate copepod production (CP), we used species-biomasses and associated C-specific growth rates from temperature dependent equations (food-saturated) for the dominant species, which we assumed were maximal growth rates (gmax). Using chlorophyll-a concentrations as a proxy for food conditions, we determined a size-dependent half-saturation constant with the Michaelis-Menten equation to derive growth rates (g) under the effect of food limitation. These food-dependent C-specific growth rates were much lower (<0.1 d-1) than those observed in the field for the dominant species, while gmax for same species, in the range of 0.19-0.23 d-1 better represented the necessary growth to attain observed adult sizes of at least two copepods, Paracalanus cf. indicus and Calanus chilensis. Copepod biomass (CB) and rates of maximal copepod production (CPmax) obtained with gmax were higher in the coastal upwelling zone (<50 km from shore), and correlated significantly to oceanographic variables associated with upwelling conditions. Both CPmax and gmax exhibited negative trends at the fixed station from 2004 to 2006 in association with increased duration of upwelling in the latter year. Annual CPmax ranged between 24 and 52 g C m-2 y-1 with a mean annual P/B ratio of 7.3. We concluded that interannual variation in copepod production resulted from factors and processes regulating copepod abundance and biomass in the absence of bottom-up control, allowing copepods to grow without limitation due to food resources.

  15. Splitting the Difference: Can Limited Coordination Achieve a Fair Distribution of the Global Climate Financing Effort?

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan Pickering; Frank Jotzo; Wood, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Mobilizing climate finance for developing countries is crucial for achieving a fair and effective global climate regime. To date developed countries retain wide discretion over their national contributions. We explore how different degrees of international coordination may influence the fairness of the global financing effort. We present quantitative scenarios for (i) the metrics used to distribute the collective effort among countries contributing funding; and (ii) the number of contributing...

  16. Tree recruitment in the Forest-tundra Ecotone : Limitation and facilitation processes in contrasting climatic Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Albertsen, Elena

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of this study was to analyse how abiotic and biotic constraint and facilitation agents determine tree recruitment in the alpine zone in climatically different regions as well as across species; Birch, pine and spruce. Location: The study was located to Grødalen, Haltdalen and Røros representing a coastal-inland gradient, where birch was included along the entire climatic gradient and all three species in one region (Haltdalen). Methods: Variables collected for seedling/...

  17. Dangers of using global bioclimatic datasets for ecological niche modeling. Limitations for future climate projections

    OpenAIRE

    Bedia, Joaquín; Herrera, Sixto; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

    2013-01-01

    Global bioclimatic datasets are being widely used in ecological research to estimate the potential distribution of species using Climate Envelope Models (CEMs). These datasets are easily available and offer high resolution information for all land areas globally. However, they have not been tested rigorously in smaller regions, and their use in regional CEM studies may pose problems derived from their poor representation of local climate features. Moreover, these problems may be enhanced when...

  18. Adaptation strategies to climate variability and change and its limitations to smallholder farmers. A literature search

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Phillipo; Magreth Bushesha; Zebedayo S. K. Mvena

    2015-01-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge on adaptation strategies to climate variability and change are scattered and fragmented due to lack of standpoints adaptation framework. This paper intends to analyse differences in adaptation strategies across agro-ecological zones, and finding out factors dictating adaptation to climate variability and change to smallholder farmers. The paper is based on documentary review methodology in which journals and books on adaptation were used as the main sources of...

  19. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  20. Impact of Climate Variables on Revenue of Major Food Crops in Ghana : Ricardian Cross-Sectional Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Issahaku, Zakaria Amidu; Maharjan, Keshav Lall

    2013-01-01

    This study analyzes the impact of climate on net revenues of five major food crops in Ghana using 2005 national survey data. A multinomial logit regression is used to correct for crop selection bias in estimation of net revenue per hectare. Results of a multinomial logit regression show that farmers are likely to switch from the cultivation of maize, sorghum and rice to cassava and yam with marginal warming. Marginal increase in rainfall prompts farmers to switch from cassava and yam to the c...

  1. The Cost Effectiveness of Educating Limited Resource Youths on Food and Nutrition

    OpenAIRE

    Baral, Ranju; Davis, George C.; Serrano, Elena; McFerren, Mary; You, Wen

    2013-01-01

    A framework for estimating cost effectiveness of the youth Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program (EFNEP), one of the largest nutrition education programs in the US, is developed. Using costs and effects data from 15 program counties in Virginia for the school year 2011/2012, the cost effectiveness ratio (CER) of the Healthy Weights for Healthy Kids (HWHK) program was estimated. Improvements in nutrition related behavior, and improvements in nutrition related self-efficacy, from pretes...

  2. Climate change adaptation: a panacea for food security in Ondo State, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatuase, A. I.

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the likely perceived causes of climate change, adaptation strategies employed and technical inefficiency of arable crop farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria. Data were obtained from primary sources using a set of structured questionnaire assisted with interview schedule. Multistage sampling technique was used. Data were analyzed using the following: descriptive statistics and the stochastic frontier production function. The findings showed that majority of the respondents (59.1 %) still believed that climate change is a natural phenomenon that is beyond man's power to abate while industrial release, improper sewage disposal, fossil fuel use, deforestation and bush burning were perceived as the most human factors that influence climate change by the category that chose human activities (40.9 %) as the main causes of climate change. The main employed adaptation strategies by the farmers were mixed cropping, planting early matured crop, planting of resistant crops and use of agrochemicals. The arable crop farmers were relatively technically efficient with about 53 % of them having technical efficiency above the average of 0.784 for the study area. The study observed that education, adaptation, perception, climate information and farming experience were statistically significant in decreasing inefficiency of arable crop production. Therefore, advocacy on climate change and its adaptation strategies should be intensified in the study area.

  3. Adaptation strategies to climate variability and change and its limitations to smallholder farmers. A literature search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Phillipo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge on adaptation strategies to climate variability and change are scattered and fragmented due to lack of standpoints adaptation framework. This paper intends to analyse differences in adaptation strategies across agro-ecological zones, and finding out factors dictating adaptation to climate variability and change to smallholder farmers. The paper is based on documentary review methodology in which journals and books on adaptation were used as the main sources of information. The collected information were analysed by using content analysis. This paper found that smallholder farmers use a variety of practices to adapt to climate variability and change. These practices include: crop management, livestock management, diversification of livelihood strategies and land use management. Availability of extension services, climate change information and membership to social networks were among the factors identified dictating smallholder farmers adaptation to climate variability and change. The paper recommends to the Government of sub-Saharan Africa and development partners to come up with adaptation framework that takes into consideration differences in geographical location. They are needed also to provide enabling conditions to smallholder farmers through strengthening farmers’ supportive services to enhance their adaptive capacities.

  4. Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Water Scarcity—Physical Limits, Sectoral Constraints, and Policy Imperatives

    OpenAIRE

    Scott, Christopher A.; Zachary P. Sugg

    2015-01-01

    The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life...

  5. Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Water Scarcity—Physical Limits, Sectoral Constraints, and Policy Imperatives

    OpenAIRE

    Scott, Christopher A.; Zachary P. Sugg

    2015-01-01

    The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life...

  6. Food security for sub-Saharan Africa: does water scarcity limit the options?

    OpenAIRE

    Gowing, John W.

    2003-01-01

    Future food security can be achieved only by delivering substantial increases in agricultural production, but this has important implications for water availability. Water scarcity is not currently a major issue in sub-Saharan Africa, but it would be a mistake to neglect this issue. It would be a mistake also to assume that only plans for irrigated agriculture are affected. It should be recognised that a land-use decision is also a water-use decision. A plan based on improving rain-fed agricu...

  7. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenguo Wang

    Full Text Available Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080 on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

  8. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

    2014-01-01

    Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China. PMID:25365425

  9. Temperature and food concentration have limited influence on the mixture toxicity of copper and Microcystis aeruginosa to Daphnia magna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochmuth, Jennifer D; Janssen, Colin R; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C

    2016-03-01

    Standard ecotoxicity tests are conducted under constant and favorable experimental conditions. In natural communities, however, the toxicity of chemicals may be influenced by abiotic and biotic environmental factors. Firstly, the authors examined the influence of temperature and total food concentration on the nature of the combined effects of copper (Cu) and the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa to Daphnia magna (i.e., whether the combined effects deviated from noninteraction). Secondly, the authors investigated the relative influence of the percentage of M. aeruginosa in the diet, temperature, and total food concentration on chronic Cu toxicity to D. magna. The nature of the combined effects between Cu and M. aeruginosa (i.e., synergism according to the independent action reference model and noninteraction according to concentration addition reference model) was not affected by temperature and total food concentration. In line with other studies, the concentration addition reference model gave rise to more protective predictions of mixture toxicity than the independent action reference model, thus confirming the former model's suitability as a conservative scenario for evaluating mixture toxicity of Cu and M. aeruginosa under the temperature and food concentrations tested. Further, the 21-d median effective concentration for Cu based on reproduction varied between 20 μg/L and 100 μg/L, and the results indicate that the percentage of M. aeruginosa explained 76% of the variance in the Cu median effective concentration for reproduction, whereas the effects of temperature and total food were limited (together explaining 11% of the variance). The present study suggests that environmental risk assessment of Cu should consider specific situations where harmful M. aeruginosa blooms can co-occur with elevated Cu exposure. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:742-749. © 2015 SETAC. PMID:26354710

  10. Climate Agreements under Limited Participation, Asymmetric Information and market Imperfections - a summary of a Dr.polit. thesis -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagem, C.

    1996-08-01

    This report summarizes the papers included as part of a doctoral thesis. It starts with the history of the greenhouse effect and proceeds with the international efforts to control man-made air pollution. In 1990 the UN established the Intergovernmental Negotiation Committee for Climate Change (INC), the task of which was to prepare the negotiations for the UN`s Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which came into force in 1994. The commitments of the signatories are not legally binding, quantitatively. The FCCC established a Conference of the Parties (COP) as the supreme body of the convention. Its first session was held in Berlin in 1995. The Berlin Mandate established a process that would enable the Parties to take actions for the period after 2000. A possible international climate agreement is often evaluated in terms of its efficiency or cost-effectiveness. Calculations are extremely complex and involve great uncertainties. Countries may not agree on the methods of calculation. There are several studies on cost-benefit analyses for controlling global warming, based on various simplifications. The thesis focuses on the cost-effectiveness of possible climate agreements and covers only CO{sub 2}. The implications of limited participation in a climate agreement are discussed. The design of a climate treaty should take into account how different policy instruments can be used to influence the emissions from non-participants. The final section discusses the impact on cost-effectiveness of a trade able quota system if some counties have market power. 59 refs.

  11. Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagner, Fabien H.; Hérault, Bruno; Bonal, Damien; Stahl, Clément; Anderson, Liana O.; Baker, Timothy R.; Becker, Gabriel Sebastian; Beeckman, Hans; Boanerges Souza, Danilo; Botosso, Paulo Cesar; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Bräuning, Achim; Brede, Benjamin; Brown, Foster Irving; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Cardoso, Fernanda C.G.; Carvalho, Fabrício Alvim; Castro, Wendeson; Chagas, Rubens Koloski; Chave, Jérome; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Clark, Deborah A.; Costa, Flavia Regina Capellotto; Couralet, Camille; Silva Mauricio, Da Paulo Henrique; Dalitz, Helmut; Castro, De Vinicius Resende; Freitas Milani, De Jaçanan Eloisa; Oliveira, De Edilson Consuelo; Souza Arruda, De Luciano; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Drew, David M.; Dünisch, Oliver; Durigan, Giselda; Elifuraha, Elisha; Fedele, Marcio; Ferreira Fedele, Ligia; Figueiredo Filho, Afonso; Finger, César Augusto Guimarães; Franco, Augusto César; Freitas Júnior, João Lima; Galvão, Franklin; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Gliniars, Robert; Lima De Alencastro Graça, Paulo Maurício; Griffiths, Anthony D.; Grogan, James; Guan, Kaiyu; Homeier, Jürgen; Kanieski, Maria Raquel; Kho, Lip Khoon; Koenig, Jennifer; Kohler, Sintia Valerio; Krepkowski, Julia; Lemos-filho, José Pires; Lieberman, Diana; Lieberman, Milton Eugene; Lisi, Claudio Sergio; Longhi Santos, Tomaz; López Ayala, José Luis; Maeda, Eduardo Eijji; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maria, Vivian R.B.; Marques, Marcia C.M.; Marques, Renato; Maza Chamba, Hector; Mbwambo, Lawrence; Melgaço, Karina Liana Lisboa; Mendivelso, Hooz Angela; Murphy, Brett P.; O'Brien, Joseph J.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Okada, Naoki; Pélissier, Raphaël; Prior, Lynda D.; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Ross, Michael; Rossatto, Davi Rodrigo; Rossi, Vivien; Rowland, Lucy; Rutishauser, Ervan; Santana, Hellen; Schulze, Mark; Selhorst, Diogo; Silva, Williamar Rodrigues; Silveira, Marcos; Spannl, Susanne; Swaine, Michael D.; Toledo, José Julio; Toledo, Marcos Miranda; Toledo, Marisol; Toma, Takeshi; Tomazello Filho, Mario; Valdez Hernández, Juan Ignacio; Verbesselt, Jan; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Vincent, Grégoire; Volkmer De Castilho, Carolina; Volland, Franziska; Worbes, Martin; Zanon, Magda Lea Bolzan; Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.

    2016-01-01

    The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 incl

  12. 食物致敏原限量确定方法研究进展%Progress on the methods for defining food allergen limits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韦晓群; 谢力; 邹志飞; 相大鹏; 李志勇; 甄宇江

    2011-01-01

    食物中致敏原的管理是食品安全的重要内容之一,而食物致敏原限量对消费者、食品监管部门、企业都有着重要的实际意义,但食物致敏原限量却难以被严格、科学地确定.本文综述了欧盟、美国、澳大利亚以及日本等国家和组织食物致敏原限量的确定方法,并提出了我国食物致敏原限量确定的建议.%Since food allergen is one of the most important parts in food safety management, limiting food allergen has important practical significance for consumers with food allergy, food safety regulators and food enterprises; however, food allergen limits are difficult to be defined strictly and scientifically. The methods of defining food allergen limits in European Union, USA, Australia and Japan were reviewed. Suggestions for establishing food allergen limits in China are proposed.

  13. Stability and Neimark—Sacker bifurcation analysis of a food-limited population model with a time delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, a kind of discrete delay food-limited model obtained by the Euler method is investigated, where the discrete delay τ is regarded as a parameter. By analyzing the associated characteristic equation, the linear stability of this model is studied. It is shown that Neimark—Sacker bifurcation occurs when τ crosses certain critical values. The explicit formulae which determine the stability, direction, and other properties of bifurcating periodic solution are derived by means of the theory of center manifold and normal form. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to verify the analytical results

  14. One Health, One World—The Intersecting Legal Regimes of Trade, Climate Change, Food Security, Humanitarian Crises, and Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelli K. Garcia

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Today’s global health challenges require a multi-sectoral approach in which health is a fundamental value within global governance and international law. “One Health, One World” provides a unified, harmonious vision of global health governance that supports the wellbeing of humans and animals living in a clean and temperate environment. This article focuses on five legal regimes—trade law, food security law, environmental law, humanitarian law, and refugee law—that play a pivotal role in influencing health outcomes and are integral to achieving the One Health, One World vision. International trade, for example, opens markets not only to life-saving products such as vaccines, medicines, and medical equipment, but also to life-threatening products such as tobacco and asbestos. If strengthened and enforced, environmental law can decrease air and water pollution, major causes of death and disability. World hunger has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis and climate change, increasing the urgency for international law to enhance food security. Humanitarian law must similarly be strengthened to protect civilians adequately as the nature of warfare continues to change. Refugee law plays a pivotal role in protecting the health of deeply vulnerable people who lack food, shelter, and social stability. Higher standards and more effective compliance are necessary for international law to realize its full potential to safeguard the world's population.

  15. Bridging Political Expectations and Scientific Limitations in Climate Risk Management. On the Uncertain Effects of International Carbon Sink Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loevbrand, E. [Environmental Science Section, Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Kalmar University, SE-391 82 Kalmar (Sweden)

    2004-12-01

    Despite great advances in carbon cycle research during the past decade the climatic impact of terrestrial ecosystems is still highly uncertain. Although contemporary studies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere has acted as a net sink to atmospheric carbon during the past two decades, the future role of terrestrial carbon pools is most difficult to foresee. When land use change and forestry activities were included into the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the requirements for scientific precision increased significantly. At the same time the political expectations of carbon sequestration as climate mitigation strategy added uncertainties of a social kind to the study of land-atmosphere carbon exchange that have been difficult to address by conventional scientific methods. In this paper I explore how the failure to take into account the effects of direct human activity in scientific projections of future terrestrial carbon storage has resulted in a simplified appreciation of the risks embedded in a global carbon sequestration scheme. I argue that the social limits to scientific analysis must be addressed in order to accommodate these risks in future climate governance and to enable continued scientific authority in the international climate regime.

  16. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F; Rötter, R P; Bindi, M;

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess cli...

  17. Advantages and Limitations of the Front-of-Package (FOP Labeling Systems in Guiding the Consumers’ Healthy Food Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Tarabella

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, nutrition labels have provided an increasing amount of information about the nutritional value of a foodstuff, in a variety of patterns, having the main goal to help consumers in making healthier food choices. Now, many questions appeared related to the effectiveness of nutrition information in guiding the consumer purchasing behaviour, by encouraging the healthy foods choice. It becomes increasingly clear that many consumers have difficulties in understanding the nutritional information, preferring a simpler way in providing this information, helping them in the rapid evaluation of the nutritional characteristics of a foodstuff. In response to the obvious need to develop a more effective presentation of nutritional information, which convey this information in a simplified and systematic manner, manufacturers and retailers from different countries have created some systems for signalling the nutritional profile. For the nutritional information of greatest interest to be easily perceived by consumers, they have used various forms of graphical representation, that were marked on the front of individual packages (generically called "front of package" - FOP. Although created in order to facilitate healthy food choices, the effect of these FOP systems on consumers is now controversial. Following a literature review, the paper highlights the main benefits and limitations of the widely used FOP systems in the European Union ("Traffic Light" and "Guideline Daily Amounts". The paper presents also some suggestions for developing an optimal FOP system, standardized and adapted to consumers` needs.

  18. Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegoke, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

  19. Climate proofing infrastructure in Bangladesh : the incremental cost of limiting future inland monsoon flood damage

    OpenAIRE

    Dasgupta, Susmita; Huq, Mainul; Khan, Zahirul Huq; Masud, Md. Sohel; Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid; Mukherjee, Nandan; Pandey, Kiran

    2010-01-01

    Two-thirds of Bangladesh is less than 5 meters above sea level, making it one of the most flood prone countries in the world. Severe flooding during a monsoon causes significant damage to crops and property, with severe adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. Future climate change seems likely to increase the destructive power of monsoon floods. This paper examines the potential cost of offs...

  20. Modeling the Climate Change Adaptation of Crop Production using Irrigation over Water-Limited Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Sakai, T.; Yokozawa, M.

    2014-12-01

    Replacing rainfed cropping system by irrigated one is assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation in agriculture. However, in many agricultural impact assessments, future irrigation scenarios are externally given and do not consider the space-time varying available agricultural water under changing climate and land use. For these reason, this study aimed to (1) develop a crop-river coupled model that can simultaneously simulate crop growth and yield over a river watershed, river discharge and their dynamic interactions by embedded a large-area crop model, PRYSBI-2 [Sakurai et al., 2014] into a hydrologic model, H08 [Hanasaki et al., 2008]; (2) apply the developed coupled model to the Songhua River watershed in Northeast China and evaluate the model's performance by comparing the historical model simulations outputs; (3) assess the effects of adaption measure expanding irrigated area under climate change. The modeled year-to-year variations in soil moisture were comparable to the reference with the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) of 0.75 (pdepletion of available agricultural water resources.

  1. Food Security in Australia in an Era of Neoliberalism, Productivism and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Geoffrey; Richards, Carol; Lyons, Kristen

    2013-01-01

    For over 150 years Australia has exported bulk, undifferentiated, commodities such as wool, wheat, meat and sugar to the UK and more recently to Japan, Korea, and the Middle East. It is estimated that, each year, Australia's farming system feeds a domestic population of some 22 million people, while exporting enough food to feed another 40…

  2. Salinity shapes food webs in shallow lakes: implications for increasing aridity with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Nicolas; Yu, Jinlei; Gutierrez, Maria Florencia;

    2015-01-01

    on community and food web structure in 24 lakes along a wide salinity gradient, from freshwater (0.5 g L-1) to hypersaline lakes (115 g L-1), in a semiarid region in North West China. Fish, zooplankton and macroinvertebrate communities were sampled during July 2014 for determination of taxonomy and size...

  3. The fundament of food, crop protein production, is threatened by climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Gislum, René; Jørgensen, Johannes Ravn;

    2016-01-01

    Income growth, urbanization, and changes in lifestyles and food preferences combined with continuing population growth lead to increasing demand for plant protein production worldwide. All the proteins we eat are produced by crops, including the proteins we get from animals, which initially come...

  4. Climate and soil properties limit the positive effects of land use reversion on carbon storage in Eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabbi, S. M. F.; Tighe, Matthew; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Cowie, Annette; Robertson, Fiona; Dalal, Ram; Page, Kathryn; Crawford, Doug; Wilson, Brian R.; Schwenke, Graeme; McLeod, Malem; Badgery, Warwick; Dang, Yash P.; Bell, Mike; O'Leary, Garry; Liu, De Li; Baldock, Jeff

    2015-12-01

    Australia’s “Direct Action” climate change policy relies on purchasing greenhouse gas abatement from projects undertaking approved abatement activities. Management of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural soils is an approved activity, based on the expectation that land use change can deliver significant changes in SOC. However, there are concerns that climate, topography and soil texture will limit changes in SOC stocks. This work analyses data from 1482 sites surveyed across the major agricultural regions of Eastern Australia to determine the relative importance of land use vs. other drivers of SOC. Variation in land use explained only 1.4% of the total variation in SOC, with aridity and soil texture the main regulators of SOC stock under different land uses. Results suggest the greatest potential for increasing SOC stocks in Eastern Australian agricultural regions lies in converting from cropping to pasture on heavy textured soils in the humid regions.

  5. Climate change and temperature dependent biogeography: oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance in animals

    OpenAIRE

    Pörtner, Hans-Otto

    2001-01-01

    Recent years have shown a rise in mean global temperatures and a shift in the geographical distribution of ectothermic animals. For a cause and effect analysis the present paper discusses those physiological processes limiting thermal tolerance. The lower heat tolerance in metazoa compared to unicellular eukaryotes and bacteria suggests that a complex systemic rather than molecular process is limiting in metazoa.Whole animal aerobic scope appears as the first process limited at low and high t...

  6. Linking killer whale survival and prey abundance: food limitation in the oceans' apex predator?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, John K B; Ellis, Graeme M; Olesiuk, Peter F; Balcomb, Kenneth C

    2010-02-23

    Killer whales (Orcinus orca) are large predators that occupy the top trophic position in the world's oceans and as such may have important roles in marine ecosystem dynamics. Although the possible top-down effects of killer whale predation on populations of their prey have received much recent attention, little is known of how the abundance of these predators may be limited by bottom-up processes. Here we show, using 25 years of demographic data from two populations of fish-eating killer whales in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, that population trends are driven largely by changes in survival, and that survival rates are strongly correlated with the availability of their principal prey species, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our results suggest that, although these killer whales may consume a variety of fish species, they are highly specialized and dependent on this single salmonid species to an extent that it is a limiting factor in their population dynamics. Other ecologically specialized killer whale populations may be similarly constrained to a narrow range of prey species by culturally inherited foraging strategies, and thus are limited in their ability to adapt rapidly to changing prey availability. PMID:19755531

  7. Improved gait in persons with knee related mobility limitations by a rosehip food supplement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ginnerup-Nielsen, Elisabeth; Christensen, Robin; Bliddal, Henning;

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a specialized rosehip powder nutraceutical on the biomechanical function of the knee joint during walking in individuals with knee-related walking limitations. METHODS: Randomized, participant and outcome assessor blinded trial. Participants with self-reported......PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a specialized rosehip powder nutraceutical on the biomechanical function of the knee joint during walking in individuals with knee-related walking limitations. METHODS: Randomized, participant and outcome assessor blinded trial. Participants with self......-reported knee-related walking limitations were randomized (1:1) to receive three capsules/day of either rosehip powder or identically appearing placebo capsules for 12 weeks. At baseline and the 12 weeks follow-up, 3-dimensional gait analyses were performed from which the peak resultant knee moment was selected...... participants using last observation carried forward imputation for missing data. RESULTS: 100 participants were randomized to rosehip (n=50) or placebo (n=50) and defined the ITT population. Of these 94 completed the study (47 in each group). There were statistically significant group differences in the change...

  8. Effects of limited food intake and vitamin C supplementation on pancreatic glucagon and insulin in guinea pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Kaplan

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of limited food intake (LFI (24, 48 and 120 h and a single i.p. dose of vitamin C supplementation (500 mg/kg on serum glucose and C-peptide levels, and pancreatic insulin and glucagon levels in guinea pigs. The highest serum glucose levels were found after vitamin C supplementation plus LFI for 48 h (LFI 48. Serum C-peptide levels were not significantly affected by food limitation (LFI 24, LFI 48, or LFI 120 as compared with controls, but when vitamin C was supplemented, the C-peptide levels were moderately enhanced. Immunohistochemical findings on pancreatic islets showed increased staining intensity for both insulin and glucagon when vitamin C was supplemented. In addition, the alpha and beta cells were stimulated, particularly by vitamin C supplementation plus LFI 120. Based on these findings, vitamin C supplementation may have a beneficial effect on the alpha and beta cells.

  9. Niche overlap, threshold food densities, and limits to prey depletion for a diving duck assemblage in an estuarine bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovvorn, James R.; De La Cruz, Susan; Takekawa, John; Shaskey, Laura E.; Richman, Samantha E.

    2013-01-01

    Planning for marine conservation often requires estimates of the amount of habitat needed to support assemblages of interacting species. During winter in subtidal San Pablo Bay, California, the 3 main diving duck species are lesser scaup Aythya affinis (LESC), greater scaup A. marila (GRSC), and surf scoter Melanitta perspicillata (SUSC), which all feed almost entirely on the bivalve Corbula amurensis. Decreased body mass and fat, increased foraging effort, and major departures of these birds appeared to result from food limitation. Broad overlap in prey size, water depth, and location suggested that the 3 species responded similarly to availability of the same prey. However, an energetics model that accounts for differing body size, locomotor mode, and dive behavior indicated that each species will become limited at different stages of prey depletion in the order SUSC, then GRSC, then LESC. Depending on year, 35 to 66% of the energy in Corbula standing stocks was below estimated threshold densities for profitable foraging. Ectothermic predators, especially flounders and sturgeons, could reduce excess carrying capacity for different duck species by 4 to 10%. A substantial quantity of prey above profitability thresholds was not exploited before most ducks left San Pablo Bay. Such pre-depletion departure has been attributed in other taxa to foraging aggression. However, in these diving ducks that showed no overt aggression, this pattern may result from high costs of locating all adequate prey patches, resulting reliance on existing flocks to find food, and propensity to stay near dense flocks to avoid avian predation. For interacting species assemblages, modeling profitability thresholds can indicate the species most vulnerable to food declines. However, estimates of total habitat needed require better understanding of factors affecting the amount of prey above thresholds that is not depleted before the predators move elsewhere.

  10. Failed development and vulnerability to climate change in central Asia: implications for food security and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janes, Craig R

    2010-07-01

    This article presents results of research undertaken to identify factors that affect the vulnerability of rural Mongolian herders to climate change. Findings suggest that models of market development instituted since 1990 have failed to recognize and support key elements of the pastoralist adaptive strategy. A retreating state presence has led to the collapse of regulatory regimes needed to safeguard critical common resources. This in turn has produced considerable social differentiation in the countryside, a breakdown in cooperative institutions, and conflicts over water and pasture. In a context of climate change, these changes seriously threaten the sustainability of the rural economy, leading to livelihood insecurity, growing rural poverty, and increasing rates of migration to shantytowns surrounding the capital city of Ulaanbaatar. The newly vulnerable poor are at higher risk for poor health and malnutrition. PMID:20566560

  11. Assessing Face Validity of a Food Behavior Checklist for Limited-resource Filipinos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banna, Jinan C; Buchthal, Opal Vanessa; Tauyan, Socorro

    2015-10-01

    Diet-related chronic health conditions are prevalent in the Filipino American community; however, there is a lack of rigorously validated nutrition education evaluation tools in Tagalog for use in this population. This study aimed to develop and evaluate the face validity of a Tagalog-language food behavior checklist (FBC). A multi-step method was used, involving translation of questionnaire text from English to Tagalog by a team of professionals, creation of accompanying color photographs, cognitive testing with the target population, final review by the team of professionals, and assessment of readability. Subjects for cognitive testing were men (n=6) and women (n=14) 18 years or older in Hawai'i who received or were eligible to receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, self-identified as Filipino, and preferred Tagalog rather than English. Participants were recruited from churches, the Filipino Center, and other community sites. Cognitive interviews revealed several issues with text and photographs, such as preferences for specific terms, and images that did not adequately illustrate the text. Image changes were made to reflect items most commonly consumed. The team of professionals agreed with participant suggestions. Assessment of readability revealed a reading level appropriate for a low-literacy population of grade 5.9. The multi-step process, which allowed members of the target audience to reveal the appropriateness of the questionnaire, yielded a Tagalog-language FBC found to have adequate face validity. After further evaluation of validity and reliability, this tool may be used to evaluate behavior change resulting from the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) nutrition education programs. PMID:26535163

  12. The effect of using consumption taxes on foods to promote climate friendly diets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edjabou, Louise Dyhr; Smed, Sinne

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture is responsible for 17–35% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions with livestock production contributing by approximately 18–22% of global emissions. Due to high monitoring costs and low technical potential for emission reductions, a tax on consumption may be a more efficient...... policy instrument to decrease emissions from agriculture than a tax based directly on emissions from production. In this study, we look at the effect of internalising the social costs of greenhouse gas emissions through a tax based on CO2 equivalents for 23 different foods. Furthermore, we compare the...... loss in consumer surplus and the changed dietary composition for different taxation scenarios. In the most efficient scenario, we find a decrease in the carbon footprint from foods for an average household of 2.3–8.8% at a cost of 0.15–1.73 DKK per kg CO2 equivalent whereas the most effective scenario...

  13. Migration of epoxidized soybean oil (ESBO) and phthalates from twist closures into food and enforcement of the overall migration limit.

    OpenAIRE

    Pedersen, Gitte Alsing; Jensen, Lisbeth Krüger; Fankhauser, Anja; Biedermann, Sandra; Petersen, Jens Højslev; Fabech, Bente

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Nineteen samples of food in glass jars with twist closures were collected by the national food inspectors at Danish food producers and a few importers, focusing on fatty food, such as vegetables in oil, herring in dressing or pickle, soft spreadable cheese, cream, dressings, peanut butter, sauces and infant food. The composition of the plasticizers in the gaskets was analyzed by GC-FID and GC-MS. ESBO and phthalates were determined in the homogenized food samples. ESBO ...

  14. HACCP TO DEVELOP SAFE FOOD COOLING, THE SHELF-LIFE LIMITS OF THE CHILLED FOOD FOR A NEW PROCESS IN A RETAIL OPERATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) is a prevention based food safety system that identifies and monitors specific food safety hazards that can adversely affect the safety of food products. The Critical Control Point in a cooked roast beef plant is to cool the product’s internal temperat...

  15. Etude Climat no. 39 'More than 800 agricultural and agri-food sites affected by the EU ETS'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: Agriculture accounts for 9% of Europe's anthropogenic emissions, counting only emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from cattle, crops and pasture. These emissions have two characteristics making their inclusion in the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) difficult: they are diffuse and depend on a range of fairly complex pedo-climatic factors. Taking into consideration the whole of the agricultural sector, including upstream activities such as production of fertilizer, phyto-sanitary products, animal feed etc., as well as downstream emissions, dominated by the agri-food sector, and also emissions linked to energy consumption by farming installations, the sector's emissions contribution increases considerably. Within this expanded scope, some emissions sources are included in the EU ETS - mainly agri-food industries, but also producers of fertilizer, heated greenhouses and knackers' yards. Even if the proportion of the agricultural and agri-food sector's emissions covered by the emissions trading scheme is minimal, with just 1.5% of all emissions falling within the scope of the EU ETS, more than 800 industrial sites are covered, accounting for 8% of installations covered by the system. The agricultural and agri-food sector are among the net beneficiaries of the EU ETS in the first two phases (2005-2012), with a surplus of 33 million allowances over the period 2008-2011. This surplus, combined with gains from trading in allowances and credits, represents an estimated asset of 495 million euros. Although it has not been fully exploited on the market, this asset largely exceeds the cost of transactions associated with emissions monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) procedures and compliance work, which is estimated at 30 million euros over the same period. The emission trading scheme has therefore been

  16. Limited potential of no-till agriculture for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powlson, David S.; Stirling, Clare M.; Jat, M. L.; Gerard, Bruno G.; Palm, Cheryl A.; Sanchez, Pedro A.; Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2014-08-01

    The Emissions Gap Report 2013 from the United Nations Environment Programme restates the claim that changing to no-till practices in agriculture, as an alternative to conventional tillage, causes an accumulation of organic carbon in soil, thus mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration. But these claims ignore a large body of experimental evidence showing that the quantity of additional organic carbon in soil under no-till is relatively small: in large part apparent increases result from an altered depth distribution. The larger concentration near the surface in no-till is generally beneficial for soil properties that often, though not always, translate into improved crop growth. In many regions where no-till is practised it is common for soil to be cultivated conventionally every few years for a range of agronomic reasons, so any soil carbon benefit is then lost. We argue that no-till is beneficial for soil quality and adaptation of agriculture to climate change, but its role in mitigation is widely overstated.

  17. Bryophytes as Climate Indicators: moss and liverwort photosynthetic limitations and carbon isotope signals in organic material and peat deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, H.; Royles, J.; Horwath, A.; Hodell, D. A.; Convey, P.; Hodgson, D.; Wingate, L.; Ogeé, J.

    2011-12-01

    Bryophytes make a significant contribution to carbon sequestration and storage in polar, boreal, temperate and tropical biomes, and yet there is limited understanding of the determinants of carbon isotope composition. Bryophytes are poikilohydric and lack stomata in the vegetative (gametophyte) stage, and lack of roots and reliance on liquid water to maintain hydration status also imposes diffusional limitations on CO2 uptake and extent of carbon isotope discrimination. Real-time gas exchange and instantaneous discrimination studies can be used to quantify responses to liquid phase limitation. Thus, wetted tissues show less negative δ13C signals due to liquid phase conductance and, as the thallus surface dries, maximum CO2 assimilation and discrimination are attained when the limitation is primarily the internal (mesophyll) conductance. Continued desiccation then leads to additional biochemical limitation in drought tolerant species, and low discrimination, although the carbon gain is low at this time. In this paper we explore the extent of carbon isotope discrimination in bulk organic material and cellulose as a function of climatic and environmental conditions, in temperate, tropical and Antarctic bryophytes. Field studies have been used to investigate seasonal variations in precipitation and water vapour inputs for cloud forest formations as a function of bryophyte biomass, diversity and isotope composition in epiphytes (particularly leafy liverworts) along an altitudinal gradient in Peru. In the Antarctic, moss banks sampled on Signy Island consisted of only two species, primarily Chorisodontium aciphyllum and some Polytrichum strictum, allowing the collection of shallow and deep cores representative of growth over the past 200 to 2000 years. The well-preserved peat has provided data on growth (14C) and stable isotopic proxies (13C, 18O) for material contemporary with recent anthropogenic climate forcing (over the past 200 years), for comparison with longer

  18. Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D; Kendall, William L; Hooten, Mevin B; Dubovsky, James A; Drewien, Roderick C

    2015-09-01

    1. Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions. PMID:25808951

  19. International negotiation methods on climatic risks, the limits of global incentives: Natural gas example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The discussion on economic instruments for coordinating an international strategy for climatic risks prevention does not take sufficiently into account the importance of the relevant scientific controversies. These ones determine strongly the negotiation process for the settlement of such a system. We illustrate this point with the simple case of the natural gas whose superiority in terms of emission contents compared to the other fossil fuels, could be contested in case of too important CH4 releases. We show that the negotiation process cannot come to a positive end if the incentive system relies only on the price signal. This process can converge only if one thinks about the combination of various tools, namely technological norms and ad hoc funds for the renewal of transmission and distribution networks combined with tax systems. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  20. Joint implementation: a pioneer mechanism within the limits of emissions - Climate study nr 33

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors first notice that much has been written about the Clean Development mechanism defined in the Kyoto protocol, but also that the Joint Implementation mechanism has an always increasing importance. Provided that always more countries would adopt greenhouse gas emissions thresholds and the Joint Implementation after the Durban conference, they analyse the Joint Implementation mechanism operation in comparison with the Clean Development mechanism. They address the economic and environmental background of the Joint Implementation. Then, they analyse quantitative aspects of this mechanism, develop a model for the assessment of the potential offer in carbon credits. They discuss the qualitative aspects of the Joint Implementation mechanism: environmental integrity, double accounting, perceived concurrence of national climate policies. Case studies are presented (Russia, Ukraine, France, EU, etc.)

  1. Exceedance of PM10 and ozone concentration limits in Germany - Spatial variability and influence of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidenreich, Majana; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    High concentrations of particulate matter (PM) and ground-level ozone (O3) have negative impacts on human health, e.g., increased risk of respiratory disease, and the environment. European Union (EU) air policy and air quality standards led to continuously reduced air pollution problems in recent decades. Nevertheless, the limit values for PM10 (particles with diameter of 10 micrometers or less) and ozone - defined by the directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament - are still exceeded frequently. Poor air quality and the exceedance of limits result mainly from the combination of high emissions and unfavourable weather conditions. Datasets from German monitoring stations are used to describe the spatial and temporal variability of the exceedance of concentration limits for PM10 and ozone for the federal states of Germany. Time series are analysed for the period 2000-2012 for PM10 and for the period 1990-2012 for ozone. Furthermore, the influence of weather patterns on the exceedance of concentration limits on a regional scale was investigated. Here, the "objective weather types" of the German Weather Service were used. As expected, for most regions anticyclonic weather types (with a negative cyclonality index for the two levels 950 and 500 hPa) show a high frequency on exeedance days, both for PM10 and ozone. The results could contribute to estimate the future exceedance frequency of concentration limits and to develop possible countermeasures.

  2. Exploring the nexus between climate change, food security, and deforestation in Q'eqchi' Maya communities, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, I.; Harbor, J.

    2013-12-01

    The challenges of food security in the central Highlands of Guatemala are linked to deforestation, land degradation, and climate change. The Q'eqchi' Maya people that inhabit this region are smallholder farmers who rely on subsistence agriculture for survival. The Q'eqchi' support themselves with timber products and ecosystem services provided by the cloud forest, a unique ecosystem where a substantial portion of water is obtained through the condensation of water droplets onto vegetation via cloud filtration. Over the past 30 years, small-scale deforestation of the cloud forest in the Sierra Yalijux and Sacranix has increased as demand for agricultural land has risen. A link between the decline of cloud forest cover and an increase in severe precipitation events that drive soil erosion has been observed in the study area. As a result, land degradation poses a serious threat to the long-term food security of Q'eqchi' communities. We have examined the social, cultural, and land tenure dynamics that impact the ability of the Q'eqchi' to adapt to the rapidly changing climate, as well as to implement recommendations for grassroots initiatives to enhance these adaptations. Using remote-sensing we constructed three land use change maps that show that deforestation rates have increased by over 200% between 1986-2006 in the Sierra Yaljux and Sacranix mountain ranges, largely due to slash and burn agriculture. Using these land use change maps as an input into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation we show that implementation of agroecological techniques to counter the impacts of land use change drastically reduces soil erosion and is the best management practice. Surveys and focus groups in several Q'eqchi' villages revealed that precipitation events have become less frequent and more intense over the past 30 years, and temperatures have generally been increasing as well. Q'eqchi' people have observed that increasing severe precipitation events have accelerated soil

  3. Estimated general population control limits for unitary agents in drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, A.P.; Adams, J.D.; Cerar, R.J.; Hess, T.L.; Kistner, S.L.; Leffingwell, S.S.; MacIntosh, R.G.; Ward, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    In the event of an unplanned release of chemical agent during any stage of the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (CSDP), the potential exists for contamination of drinking water, forage crops, grains, garden produce, and livestock. Persistent agents such as VX or sulfur mustard pose the greatest human health concern for reentry. This White Paper has been prepared to provide technical bases for these decisions by developing working estimates of agent control limits in selected environmental media considered principal sources of potential human exposure. To date, control limits for public exposure to unitary agents have been established for atmospheric concentrations only. The current analysis builds on previous work to calculate working estimates of control limits for ingestion and dermal exposure to potentially contaminated drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items such as garden produce. Information characterizing agent desorption from, and detection on or in, contaminated porous media are presently too developed to permit reasonable estimation of dermal exposure from this source. Thus, dermal contact with potentially contaminated porous surfaces is not considered in this document.

  4. Investigating the effects of food available and climatic variables on the animal host density of hemorrhagic Fever with renal syndrome in changsha, china.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is influenced by population dynamics of its main host, rodents. It is therefore important to better understand rodents' characteristic in epidemic areas. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examined the potential impact of food available and climatic variability on HFRS rodent host and developed forecasting models. Monthly rodent density of HFRS host and climate data in Changsha from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained. Monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI and temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI for rice paddies were extracted from MODIS data. Cross-correlation analysis were carried out to explore correlation between climatic variables and food available with monthly rodent data. We used auto-regressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables and food supply to rodent density. The results indicated that relative rodent density of HFRS host was significantly correlated with monthly mean temperatures, monthly accumulative precipitation, TVDI and NDVI with lags of 1-6 months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Food available plays a significant role in population fluctuations of HFRS host in Changsha. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

  5. Seasonal Shift in Climatic Limiting Factors on Tree Transpiration: Evidence from Sap Flow Observations at Alpine Treelines in Southeast Tibet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xinsheng; Nie, Yuqin; Luo, Tianxiang; Yu, Jiehui; Shen, Wei; Zhang, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria) treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0°C. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.

  6. 2.6: Limiting climate change to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent in the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios explores a rich suite of potential future worlds in which climate change is limited to a variety of alternative radiative forcing levels. This paper focuses primarily on the requirements to limit radiative forcing from Kyoto gases to 2.6 W/m2. Given that we estimate year 2005 radiative forcing to be 2.4 W/m2, the 2.6 W/m2 limit creates a non-trivial constraint. Allowing radiative forcing to exceed the long-term target level provides greater latitude in achieving the goal, but implies major changes to both global energy and land-use systems in the near term as well as the long term. In addition, delay on the part of major emitting parties creates potential 'leakage' in both energy and land use. We estimate the challenging near-term and long-term deployment of new wind power, nuclear power and CO2 capture and storage associated with the 2.6 W/m2 limit.

  7. Trends in greenhouse gas emissions from consumption and production of animal food products - implications for long-term climate targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cederberg, C; Hedenus, F; Wirsenius, S; Sonesson, U

    2013-02-01

    -increase target of 2° might imply a severe constraint on the long-term global consumption of animal food. Due to the relatively limited potential for reducing food-related emissions by higher productivity and technological means, structural changes in food consumption towards less emission-intensive food might be required for meeting the 2° target. PMID:23031741

  8. BUSINESS CLIMATE OF FOOD FIRMS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMS FACED BY FOOD MANUFACTURERS, WHOLESALERS, RETAILERS AND SERVICE INSTITUTIONS IN NEW JERSEY

    OpenAIRE

    Adelaja, Adesoji O.; Nayga, Rodolfo M.; Tank, Karen Rose; Schilling, Brian J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents the problems facing food firms using information from focus groups of industry executives from New Jersey. The leading problems for food manufacturers are related to regulation, taxation, economic development, and high business costs. For food wholesalers the leading problems are transportation, regulation, labor quality, training and education, and public relations. Food retailers cite litigation and liability, high business costs, regulation, and insurance costs as leadi...

  9. Proceedings of the 65. conference of the Ordre des agronomes du Quebec : Effects of climate change on agriculture and agri-food sectors : local solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This conference provided a forum for the exchange of scientific knowledge concerning new management tools and agricultural practices that will ensure sustainable development in the agriculture and agri-food sectors in Quebec in light of climate change. Agricultural practices were examined in an effort to see how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be reduced. A review of the knowledge accumulated to date on climate change was presented along with a look at the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on Quebec's agricultural sector. Climate and the greenhouse effect were discussed, with particular emphasis on a European perspective of the agricultural sector. Nine presenters also participated in 3 smaller conferences on specific themes which examined GHG sources and methods to reduce emissions in animal and plant production. The impacts of climate change and adaptation methods in Quebec were discussed. Twelve of the 13 papers were indexed separately for inclusion in this database

  10. Soil Carbon Sequestration Impacts on Global Climate Change and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lal, R.

    2004-06-01

    The carbon sink capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils is 50 to 66% of the historic carbon loss of 42 to 78 gigatons of carbon. The rate of soil organic carbon sequestration with adoption of recommended technologies depends on soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature, farming system, and soil management. Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growing energy crops on spare lands. An increase of 1 ton of soil carbon pool of degraded cropland soils may increase crop yield by 20 to 40 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) for wheat, 10 to 20 kg/ha for maize, and 0.5 to 1 kg/ha for cowpeas. As well as enhancing food security, carbon sequestration has the potential to offset fossil-fuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons of carbon per year, or 5 to 15% of the global fossil-fuel emissions.

  11. Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900-2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future. - A modelling exercise indicates that nitrogen deposition was the main factor that enhanced tree carbon sequestration in Europe in the past, while climate change will do so in the future - Highlights: → European tree C sequestration 1900-2050 has been modelled as function of N deposition and climate. → N deposition drove tree C sequestration in the past, climate will do it in the future. → The impact of climate change will be limited by N, but also base cation and P availability.

  12. Geographic variation of surface energy partitioning in the climatic mean predicted from the maximum power limit

    CERN Document Server

    Dhara, Chirag; Kleidon, Axel

    2015-01-01

    Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and mass balances alone. We use a simple energy balance model in which convective fluxes and surface temperatures are determined with the additional thermodynamic limit of maximum convective power. We then show that the broad geographic variation of heat fluxes and surface temperatures in the climatological mean compare very well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis over land and ocean. We also show that the estimates depend considerably on the formulation of longwave radiative transfer and that a spatially uniform offset is related to the assumed cold temperature sink at which the heat engine operates.

  13. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Rosol

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods: Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results: A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions: If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  14. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    Background The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival. PMID:27388896

  15. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  16. Mismatches in Phenology of Birds and Their Food Due to Climate Change: Big Data, Analytical Challenges, and Scale Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayor, S.; Andrew, M. E.; Elmendorf, S.; Guralnick, R. P.; Minor, E. S.; Schneider, D.; Tersigni, V.; Thibault, K. M.; Tingley, M. W.; Withey, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    We explored analytical issues that come with challenging ecological concepts against large data sets. As an example, we examined the expected mismatch between the phenology (annual timing) of endothermic migratory birds with the phenology of primarily ectothermic (degree-day dependent) food resources. We hypothesized that bird phenology, which is often tightly hormonally tied to day length cues would be increasing out of phase the phenology of their food resources, due to increases in both mean and variability of spring temperatures. Specifically, we tested whether bird populations have been able to match their migration times to the timing of spring 'greenup', when food resources become plentiful. If not, we also test if suboptimal migration timing resulted in negative fitness consequences for individual bird species? We expected (1) a mismatch between optimal migration time and observed migration time; (2) greater variation in mean timing of ectothermic prey resources than migratory arrival of endothermic birds; (3) higher per capita survival and reproduction of species with the smallest optimal/observed migration timing mismatch. We tested these expectations with rich datasets extensive in both time and space. We brought together nearly a decade of migratory arrival records for over 100 bird species across the continental U.S. (eBird) with remotely sensed (MODIS) time of spring greenup, which is concurrent with insect abundance, and survival and reproduction estimates for each bird species (MAPS). In testing these questions with large data sets, we encountered several challenges. First, selecting the spatial scale(s) of analyses involve a priori estimation of scale(s) at which birds select food resources, and mismatches depend on analytical scale. To assess a mismatch in phenology (between birds and food), we attempted to minimize a mismatch in scales (between analyses and phenomena). Second, forming causal linkages between variables relied on previous

  17. Interactions of Climate Change and Nitrogen Management for Optimizing Crop Productivity and Food Security while Minimizing Nitrogen Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, E. A.; Suddick, E. C.

    2012-12-01

    Producing food, transportation, and energy for seven billion people has led to huge increases in use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuels, resulting in large releases of N as air and water pollution. In its numerous chemical forms, N plays a critical role in all aspects of climate change, including mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. Here we report on a multi-authored, interdisciplinary technical report on climate-nitrogen interactions submitted to the US National Climate Assessment as part of a Research Coordination Network activity. Management of the N cycle not only affects emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitrogen oxides (NOX), but also impacts carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), through effects on carbon cycling processes in forests and soils and the effects on atmospheric reactions of ozone (O3) and CH4. While some of these direct and indirect N effects have a short-term cooling effect, the warming effects of N2O dominate at long time scales. The challenges of mitigating N2O emissions are substantially different from those for CO2 and CH4, because N is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. On one hand, improved agricultural nutrient management can confer some adaptive capacity of crops to climatic variability, but, on the other hand, increased climatic variability will render the task more difficult to manage nutrients for the optimization of crop productivity while minimizing N losses to the environment. Higher air temperatures will result in a "climate penalty" for air quality mitigation efforts, because larger NOX emissions reductions will be needed to achieve the same reductions of O3 pollution under higher temperatures, thus imposing further challenges to avoid harmful impacts on human health and crop productivity. Changes in river discharge, due to summer drought and to extreme precipitation events, will affect the transport of N from agricultural fields to

  18. Limited Dissemination of Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase- and Plasmid-Encoded AmpC-Producing Escherichia coli from Food and Farm Animals, Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börjesson, Stefan; Ny, Sofia; Egervärn, Maria; Bergström, Jakob; Rosengren, Åsa; Englund, Stina; Löfmark, Sonja; Byfors, Sara

    2016-04-01

    Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)- and plasmid-encoded ampC (pAmpC)-producing Enterobacteriaceae might spread from farm animals to humans through food. However, most studies have been limited in number of isolates tested and areas studied. We examined genetic relatedness of 716 isolates from 4,854 samples collected from humans, farm animals, and foods in Sweden to determine whether foods and farm animals might act as reservoirs and dissemination routes for ESBL/pAmpC-producing Escherichia coli. Results showed that clonal spread to humans appears unlikely. However, we found limited dissemination of genes encoding ESBL/pAmpC and plasmids carrying these genes from foods and farm animals to healthy humans and patients. Poultry and chicken meat might be a reservoir and dissemination route to humans. Although we found no evidence of clonal spread of ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli from farm animals or foods to humans, ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli with identical genes and plasmids were present in farm animals, foods, and humans. PMID:26982890

  19. Migration of Epoxidized Soybean Oil (ESBO) and Phthalates From Twist Closures into Food and Enforcement of the Overall Migration Limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Gitte Alsing; Jensen, Lisbeth Krüger; Fankhauser, A.;

    2008-01-01

    and infant food. The composition of the plasticizers in the gaskets was analysed by gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (GC-FID) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Epoxidized soybean oil (ESBO) and phthalates were determined in the homogenized food samples. ESBO...... was the principal plasticizer in five of the gaskets; in 14 it was phthalates. ESBO was found in seven of the food samples at concentrations from 6 to 100 mg kg(-1). The highest levels (91-100 mg kg(-1)) were in oily foods such as garlic, chilli or olives in oil. Phthalates, i.e. di-iso-decylphthalate (DIDP) and di...

  20. Soil carbon sequestration for climate, food security and ecosystem services. Proceedings of the International conference 27-29 may 2013, Reykjavik, Iceland.

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The international conference on SOIL CARBON SEQUESTRATION for climate, food security and ecosystem services – linking science, policy and action (SCS2013) took place in Reykjavik Iceland on 27. – 29. May 2013. The conference was organized by the Soil Conservation Service of Iceland, the Agricultural University of Iceland and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (Collaboration Agreement No 31059) in partnership with a group of international and UN agencies, universities and non...

  1. Testing the Climate Sensitivity of Mountain Hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr.) Near the Southern Limit of Its Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appleton, S.; St George, S.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the climate sensitivity of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr.) near the southern limit of its range, tests the stability of its climate-tree relations over the last few decades, and explores its potential as a hydroclimatic proxy for Crater Lake National Park. We collected tree cores at seven locations around the caldera rim, focusing on hemlock growing at higher elevations (2000-2400 masl). The median length of all ring-width series is 283 years, and the oldest hemlock sample extends back to C.E. 1450. Several types of anatomical anomalies, including frost rings, traumatic resin ducts, false rings, and light late-wood bands were observed within the specimens, the most common feature being a false ring in C.E. 1810. Each set of standardized ring-width measurements has a strong common signal, with between-tree correlations (r-bar) ranging from 0.31 to 0.49. Preliminary analysis suggests hemlock growth across the park is strongly and inversely related to total cool-season precipitation, and is also influenced positively (albeit more weakly) by mean summer temperature. Most sites are significantly and negatively correlated with total December-to-February precipitation (r = -0.41) and total precipitation from December to August (r = -0.48). Compared to other ring-width records exhibiting similar negative responses to winter precipitation, these hemlocks appear to track that specific signal quite clearly and, as a result, these data may be suitable to reconstruct past changes in cool-season moisture in Crater Lake National Park and across the broader southern Cascades.

  2. The Role of Traditional Knowledge and Crop Varieties in Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in SW China, Bolivian Andes and coastal Kenya

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiderska, Krystyna; Reid, Hannah; Song, Yiching; Li, Jingsong; Mutta, Doris; Ongugo, Paul; Pakia, Mohamed; Oros, Rolando; Barriga, Sandra

    2011-09-15

    Paper prepared for the UNU-IAS workshop on Indigenous Peoples, Marginalised Populations and Climate Change: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Traditional Knowledge, Mexico, July 2011. Indigenous peoples and local communities often live in harsh natural environments, and have had to cope with extreme weather and adapt to environmental change for centuries in order to survive. They have done this using long standing traditions and practices – or traditional knowledge (TK) – relating to adaptive ecosystem management and sustainable use of natural resources. The three case studies presented provide evidence of the crucial role of traditional crop varieties, knowledge and practices in enabling adaption to changes in climate. The question is whether the climatic changes observed in these cases are human induced climate change or just natural changes. The findings show that indigenous farmers in SW China, coastal Kenya and the Bolivian Andes are already severely impacted by changes in climate, including drought, with serious consequences for crop production and food security. The scale of the changes, and the fact that they have occurred quite recently (in the last 10 or 20 years), suggests that they may be the result of human induced climate change.

  3. facing the challenges of climate change and food security : the role of research, extension and communication for development

    OpenAIRE

    Leeuwis, C.; Hall, A; Weperen, van, W.; Preissing, J.

    2013-01-01

    In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this study defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This report is a shortened version of the final study report, produced on request of FAO. The purpose of the shortened report is twofold: (1) to serve as a planning document to sharpen the climate change focus of research, extension and communication for development institutions (including F...

  4. The impact of initiatives to limit the advertising of food and beverage products to children: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith-Emami, S; Lobstein, T

    2013-12-01

    In response to increasing evidence that advertising of foods and beverages affects children's food choices and food intake, several national governments and many of the world's larger food and beverage manufacturers have acted to restrict the marketing of their products to children or to advertise only 'better for you' products or 'healthier dietary choices' to children. Independent assessment of the impact of these pledges has been difficult due to the different criteria being used in regulatory and self-regulatory regimes. In this paper, we undertook a systematic review to examine the data available on levels of exposure of children to the advertising of less healthy foods since the introduction of the statutory and voluntary codes. The results indicate a sharp division in the evidence, with scientific, peer-reviewed papers showing that high levels of such advertising of less healthy foods continue to be found in several different countries worldwide. In contrast, the evidence provided in industry-sponsored reports indicates a remarkably high adherence to voluntary codes. We conclude that adherence to voluntary codes may not sufficiently reduce the advertising of foods which undermine healthy diets, or reduce children's exposure to this advertising. PMID:23845093

  5. Representation of fine scale atmospheric variability in a nudged limited area quasi-geostrophic model: application to regional climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, H.; Drobinski, P.; Dubos, T.

    2009-09-01

    In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate nudging time on the large and small scales of an idealized limited area model simulation. The limited area model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by its « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. Compared to a previous study by Salameh et al. (2009) who investigated the existence of an optimal nudging time minimizing the error on both large and small scale in a linear model, we here use a fully non-linear model which allows us to represent the chaotic nature of the atmosphere: given the perfect quasi-geostrophic model, errors in the initial conditions, concentrated mainly in the smaller scales of motion, amplify and cascade into the larger scales, eventually resulting in a prediction with low skill. To quantify the predictability of our quasi-geostrophic model, we measure the rate of divergence of the system trajectories in phase space (Lyapunov exponent) from a set of simulations initiated with a perturbation of a reference initial state. Predictability of the "global", periodic model is mostly controlled by the beta effect. In the LAM, predictability decreases as the domain size increases. Then, the effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model” approach. Two sets of experiments were performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic LAM where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. In the two sets of experiments, the best spatial correlation between the nudge simulation and the reference is observed with a nudging time close to the predictability time.

  6. Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Maria C.; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Bugalho, Miguel N.; Werner, Christiane

    2015-10-01

    Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

  7. Food, land and greenhouse gases The effect of changes in UK food consumption on land requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. Report for the Committee on Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    Audsley, Eric; Angus, Andrew; Chatterton, Julia C.; Graves, Anil R.; Morris, Joe; Murphy-Bokern,Donal; Pearn, Kerry R.; Sandars, Daniel L.; Williams, Adrian G

    2010-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY •1. Key findingsThis study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It a...

  8. Long-term increase of fat mass after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limitation of physical activity

    OpenAIRE

    Ernersson, Åsa; Nyström, Fredrik; Lindström, Torbjörn

    2010-01-01

    Background: A sedentary lifestyle and increased consumption of energy dense food have become more common in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to study long term effects on body composition after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limited physical activity in young normal weight subjects. Method: Eighteen subjects, mean age 26 (6.6) years, increased their energy intake with in average 70% and physical activity were not to exceed 5000 steps/day...

  9. The use of whole food animal studies in the safety assessment of genetically modified crops: Limitations and recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Bartholomaeus, Andrew; Parrott, Wayne; Bondy, Genevieve; Walker, Kate

    2013-01-01

    There is disagreement internationally across major regulatory jurisdictions on the relevance and utility of whole food (WF) toxicity studies on GM crops, with no harmonization of data or regulatory requirements. The scientific value, and therefore animal ethics, of WF studies on GM crops is a matter addressable from the wealth of data available on commercialized GM crops and WF studies on irradiated foods. We reviewed available GM crop WF studies and considered the extent to which they add to...

  10. Advantages and Limitations of the Front-of-Package (FOP) Labeling Systems in Guiding the Consumers’ Healthy Food Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Angela Tarabella; Lelia Voinea

    2013-01-01

    In the last decades, nutrition labels have provided an increasing amount of information about the nutritional value of a foodstuff, in a variety of patterns, having the main goal to help consumers in making healthier food choices. Now, many questions appeared related to the effectiveness of nutrition information in guiding the consumer purchasing behaviour, by encouraging the healthy foods choice. It becomes increasingly clear that many consumers have difficulties in understanding the nutriti...

  11. Extreme drought event and shrub invasion combine to reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Maria; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa; Pinto, Joaquim; Bugalho, Miguel; Werner, Christiane

    2016-04-01

    ). Caldeira M.C., Lecomte X., David T.S., Pinto J.G., Bugalho M.N. & Werner C. (2015). Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates. Scientific Reports, 5, 15110.

  12. Adapting to climate change for food security through supplementary irrigation and changing sowing dates in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muluneh Bitew, Alemayehu; Stroosnijder, Leo; keesstra, Saskia

    2015-04-01

    Studies on climate impacts and related adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming important to counteract the negative effects of climate change. In Ethiopia, climate change is likely to affect crop yields negatively. However, quantitative evidence is lacking about the ability of farm level adaptation options to offset negative impacts on food security. The MarkSimGCM weather generator was used to generate projected daily rainfall and temperature data originally taken from ECHAM5 general circulation model and ensemble mean of six models under A2 (high) and B1 (low) emission scenarios. We validated the FAO AquaCrop model and subsequently used it to predict maize yields and explore three adaptations options. Increasing plant density has the least effect on maize yield so that the density that is currently used by 'good' farmers (30,000) is recommended. The optimum level of supplemental irrigation (SI), in combination with this plant density, is application of SI when the percentage of soil water depletion reached 75% of the maximum available water in the root zone. In the future, dry spells during the Belg season increase and this has a negative effect on maize production. The predicted lower maize production due to the changing rainfall is only partly compensated by the expected increase in CO2 concentration. The shifting of sowing period of maize from the current Belg season (mostly April or May) to the first month of Kiremt season (June) can offset the predicted yield reduction caused by climate change. SI has a marginal effect in good rainfall years but using 94-111 mm of SI can avoid total crop failure in drought years. Hence, SI is an interesting option to improve food security in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia. Key words: Adaptation; Climate change; Central Rift Valley; Dry spell; Supplemental irrigation.

  13. Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change Impacts on Wind Energy Resources in the Contiguous United States by Using a Limited-Area Model with Scale-Selective Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a limited-area model (LAM in combination with the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA approach, wind energy resources in the contiguous United States (CONUS were downscaled from IPCC CCSM3 global model projections for both current and future climate conditions. An assessment of climate change impacts on wind energy resources in the CONUS region was then conducted. Based on the downscaling results, when projecting into future climate under IPCC’s A1B scenario, the average annual wind speed experiences an overall shift across the CONUS region. From the current climate to the 2040s, the average annual wind speed is expected to increase from 0.1 to 0.2 m s−1 over the Great Plains, Northern Great Lakes Region, and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rocky Mountains. When projecting into the 2090s from current climate, there is an overall increase in the Great Plains Region and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rockies with a mean wind speed increase between 0 and 0.1 m s−1, while, the Northern Great Lakes Region experiences an even greater increase from current climate to 2090s than over the first few decades with an increase of mean wind speed from 0.1 to 0.4 m s−1.

  14. Sequence of events from the onset to the demise of the Last Interglacial: Evaluating strengths and limitations of chronologies used in climatic archives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govin, A.; Capron, E.; Tzedakis, P. C.; Verheyden, S.; Ghaleb, B.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; St-Onge, G.; Stoner, J. S.; Bassinot, F.; Bazin, L.; Blunier, T.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; El Ouahabi, A.; Genty, D.; Gersonde, R.; Jimenez-Amat, P.; Landais, A.; Martrat, B.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Parrenin, F.; Seidenkrantz, M.-S.; Veres, D.; Waelbroeck, C.; Zahn, R.

    2015-12-01

    The Last Interglacial (LIG) represents an invaluable case study to investigate the response of components of the Earth system to global warming. However, the scarcity of absolute age constraints in most archives leads to extensive use of various stratigraphic alignments to different reference chronologies. This feature sets limitations to the accuracy of the stratigraphic assignment of the climatic sequence of events across the globe during the LIG. Here, we review the strengths and limitations of the methods that are commonly used to date or develop chronologies in various climatic archives for the time span (˜140-100 ka) encompassing the penultimate deglaciation, the LIG and the glacial inception. Climatic hypotheses underlying record alignment strategies and the interpretation of tracers are explicitly described. Quantitative estimates of the associated absolute and relative age uncertainties are provided. Recommendations are subsequently formulated on how best to define absolute and relative chronologies. Future climato-stratigraphic alignments should provide (1) a clear statement of climate hypotheses involved, (2) a detailed understanding of environmental parameters controlling selected tracers and (3) a careful evaluation of the synchronicity of aligned paleoclimatic records. We underscore the need to (1) systematically report quantitative estimates of relative and absolute age uncertainties, (2) assess the coherence of chronologies when comparing different records, and (3) integrate these uncertainties in paleoclimatic interpretations and comparisons with climate simulations. Finally, we provide a sequence of major climatic events with associated age uncertainties for the period 140-105 ka, which should serve as a new benchmark to disentangle mechanisms of the Earth system's response to orbital forcing and evaluate transient climate simulations.

  15. Consumer perceptions of environmentally and climatically significant food consumption - A focus group study in the Finnish context

    OpenAIRE

    Roininen, Taneli Joonatan

    2012-01-01

    Food consumption is one of the areas which have the biggest impact on the environment; a little less than 30 percent of greenhouse gas emissions and around 50 percent of eutrophication of all household consumption accounts for food in Finland. The importance of the sustainable decision-making of the consumers is especially highlighted in the food sector, where in contrast to other sectors, significant greenhouse gas emission reductions cannot be achieved just by applying low-carbon-technology...

  16. Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: Producing Potatoes ( Solanum tuberosum L.) and Bush Beans ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) for Improved Food Security and Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First Nations Community

    OpenAIRE

    Christine D. Barbeau; Maren Oelbermann; Karagatzides, Jim D.; Leonard J.S. Tsuji

    2015-01-01

    Aboriginal people in Canada experience disproportionately high rates of diet-related illnesses, such as obesity and diabetes. Food insecurity has been identified as a contributing factor to these illnesses along with a loss of traditional lifestyle. Current food systems within northern subarctic and arctic regions of Canada rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available), and are environmentally unsustainable. A warming subarctic and arctic climate present challenges, but a...

  17. Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: Producing Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) and Bush Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) for Improved Food Security and Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First Nations Community

    OpenAIRE

    Christine D. Barbeau; Maren Oelbermann; Karagatzides, Jim D.; Leonard J.S. Tsuji

    2015-01-01

    Aboriginal people in Canada experience disproportionately high rates of diet-related illnesses, such as obesity and diabetes. Food insecurity has been identified as a contributing factor to these illnesses along with a loss of traditional lifestyle. Current food systems within northern subarctic and arctic regions of Canada rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available), and are environmentally unsustainable. A warming subarctic and arctic climate present challenges, but ...

  18. Food for Thought: Frequent Interracial Dining Experiences as a Predictor of Students' Racial Climate Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Maria R.; Byron, Reginald A.; Ferry, Griffin; Garcia, Melissa

    2013-01-01

    This article describes a study that explored factors which influenced undergraduate students' perceptions of the racial climate at a predominantly white liberal arts university in the South. Mixed methods results suggest that race, aspects of the institutional climate, and frequent interracial dining experiences in the campus cafeteria…

  19. Genetic diversity and ecological niche modelling of wild barley: refugia, large-scale post-LGM range expansion and limited mid-future climate threats?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne Russell

    Full Text Available Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare. Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security.

  20. Estimates of maximum limits of food colours use in Brazil through the Danish Budget Method and the Bär and Würtzen-modified method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machinski Júnior, M

    1998-01-01

    The establishment of the permissible levels for the use of additives in foods must be based on the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI). A method that may be applied for this purpose is the Danish Budget Method which estimates the maximum amount of the additive that may be added to the food based on the functional properties of the additive, and on the categories of the food in which the additive will be used. Based on the latest information Bär and Würtzen propose some modifications to the original Budget Method, one of which is the addition of a correction factor which takes into account the competition between different food additives with the same functional properties. In the present paper, both the Budget Method and the Bär and Würtzen-modified method were applied to evaluate whether the maximum levels of food colours use exceeded their ADI or not. Applying the original Budget Method, the results showed that the colours Sunset Yellow, Amaranth, Erythrosine, Ponceau 4R and Cochineal possibly exceeded the ADI; while applying the modified method only the colours Erythrosine and Cochineal would exceed the ADI. Brazilian regulatory authorities should be advised to establish maximum limits of use for the following categories of colours: Caramel, Inorganic, Natural and Artificial Colours Identical to the Natural Ones, where ADIs have been evaluated by JECFA. PMID:9764219

  1. PCDD/PCDF and dioxin-like PCBs in animal fat samples from Switzerland. A monitoring program for revising Swiss food limits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rottler, H. [Eurofins Oekometric, Bayreuth (Germany); Wuethrich, C.; Kuchen, A. [Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Liebefeld (Switzerland)

    2004-09-15

    The European Commission (EC) stipulated maximum levels for dioxins in food in 2001 as an outcome result of their strategy to reduce dioxin and PCB levels. At that time the data base for dioxin-like PCBs was regarded as insufficient to include maximum levels for PCBs. Consequently, a study was initiated by the EC on a European-wide scale to collect information on dioxin-like PCBs in feed and food. The decision on European limits for dioxin-like PCBs is announced for end of 2004. As Switzerland is not a member of the European Union, European Commission limits are not valid per se and must be reassessed. As laid down in the Swiss Food Law it is the task of the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (SFOPH) to collect the basic information necessary for initiating appropriate measures to protect consumers from foodstuff that could adversely affect their health. In this context information about total dioxin intake of the Swiss population is necessary. In view of the upcoming revision of the Swiss Ordinance on Foreign and Toxic Components in Foodstuffs (FIV) which should integrate limits for dioxins in food, it is now important to know whether the maximum contaminant limit for dioxins as fixed by the European Commission is also appropriate for Swiss consumer protection purposes. To answer this question and to fill existing data gaps in view of a more accurate calculation of the total dioxin intake of the Swiss population, an additional dioxin monitoring program started end of 2003 especially focusing on animal fat. Dioxin-like PCBs were included to complete the Swiss data base and to assess the Swiss intake situation for these compounds just in time before the corresponding European activities on dioxinlike PCBs.

  2. Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Sanjiv; Allan, Richard P; Zwiers, Francis; Lawrence, David M.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

    2016-01-01

    A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects...

  3. Local adaptation to temperature conserves top-down control in a grassland food web

    OpenAIRE

    Barton, Brandon T.

    2011-01-01

    A fundamental limitation in many climate change experiments is that tests represent relatively short-term ‘shock’ experiments and so do not incorporate the phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary change that may occur during the gradual process of climate change. However, capturing this aspect of climate change effects in an experimental design is a difficult challenge that few studies have accomplished. I examined the effect of temperature and predator climate history in food webs composed of ...

  4. The Impact Of Climate Change On Production Of Multiple Food Crops In The 21st Century- An Analysis Based On Two Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Jain, A. K.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change presents potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of climate change effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected climate change trends and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to climate change and adaptive management practices and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate crop adaptation to climate change. We apply the process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of climate change on the production of row crops (corn, soybean, rice, cotton, sugarcane and wheat) at global and regional scales. The results are compared to the corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of crop adaptation and adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do model differences in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices over the 21st century. ISAM and CLM4.5 have been included in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Both models consider the effects of temperature, light and soil water and nitrogen availability on crop photosynthesis and temperature control on crop phenology and carbon allocation. ISAM also considers the adaptation of crop phenology, carbon allocation and structures growth to drought, light stress and N stress. The effects of model differences on projected crop production are evaluated by performing the following experiments. Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005) and projected atmospheric forcing data (2006-2100) under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different

  5. Limits to growth in organic sales : price elasticity of consumer demand for organic food in Dutch supermarkets

    OpenAIRE

    Bunte, F.H.J.; Galen, van, P.L.J.; Kuiper, W.E.; Bakker, J.H.

    2007-01-01

    This report determines how sensitive consumer demand for organic products is to changes in the prices of organic products. The report is based on the analysis of scanner data for supermarkets in ten Dutch communities. In the framework of the analysis, an experiment has been performed in which the prices of organic products have been reduced below current price levels. The report shows that consumer demand for organic food is sensitive to changes in consumer prices. However, for five out of ei...

  6. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  7. Travelling in antique lands. Using past famines to develop an adaptability/resilience framework to identify food systems vulnerable to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraser, E.D.G. [Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT (United Kingdom)

    2007-08-15

    This paper builds on existing theory and proposes a framework to identify vulnerability to climate change in food systems by examining historic cases where common environmental problems caused famine. Cases presented are (1) Ireland's Potato Famine, (2) El Nino induced famines during the Colonial period, and (3) Ethiopia between 1965 and 1997. Three factors stand out as common in each. Prior to each famine: (1) there were very few ways that people could obtain a living in the worst affected regions; (2) livelihoods in famine stricken communities came to depend on highly specialized agro-ecosystems that were sensitive to environmental change; (3) institutions failed to provide adequate safety nets to protect livelihoods from failure. This analysis suggests that vulnerability to climate change in food systems can be assessed by looking at agro-ecosystems, livelihoods and institutions. Local conditions, however, mean that ways of measuring these three factors will vary from place to place. As a result, direct comparisons are difficult. By conceptualizing these three variables as the axes of a three dimensional 'vulnerability' space, it is possible to compare regions and look at trends over time by studying the paths through this 'space' as traced by changes at the agro-ecosystem, livelihood, and institutional scale.

  8. Limitation of the CO2 emissions to fight the climatic change. Challenges, prevention at the source and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the framework of a climatic change the CO2 capture and sequestration is considered as an possible way of greenhouse effect gases impact decrease. Meanwhile many other actions in the energy production and consumption must also be implemented. The aim of this study is to offer a global aspect of the problem and a synthesis of bibliographic elements. The first part presents the context of the climatic change, the economical and political aspects. The second deals more specially with the actions possibilities, the energy recovery, the carbon sequestration. (A.L.B.)

  9. The role of climate and food availability on driving decadal abundance patterns of highly migratory pelagic predators in the Bay of Biscay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maite eLouzao

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Within the current context of changing ecosystems, many organisms are experiencing phenological changes in the timing of migration. Here, we assessed whether the abundance patterns of two trans-equatorial migrating pelagic seabirds, the great shearwater and the sooty shearwater (Puffinus gravis and P. griseus, respectively, have changed over recent decades in the Bay of Biscay in relation to the main drivers shaping their migratory journey: climatic factors and food availability. Specifically, we studied the staging dynamic by estimating dates of arrival and departure, staging duration and abundance during a 16-year temporal window (1995-2010 based on monthly at-sea observations performed onboard a commercial ferry. Climatic effects were studied at two temporal scales: oceanic winds and global oscillations indices (North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO that represent climate variability at short and long time scales, respectively. Based on oceanic winds, we also estimated a hypothetical cost of flying on a monthly basis considering wind speed and the angle between flight and wind direction. Our results showed that both great and sooty shearwaters were influenced by the large scale NAO index but the shape of the relationship was different, while the sooty shearwater was also influenced by food availability. Thus, each species might rely on different cues before and during their migration to adjust to optimal flying conditions and foraging grounds. Both species shape their arrival in the Bay of Biscay with periods of potential minimum flying costs, following their migration from the western to the eastern North Atlantic. We foresee that the quantification of flying costs can integrate different processes at the level of migration and provide a wider understanding of the migratory dynamic of pelagic predators within current changing ecosystems.

  10. Water Scarcity within the Context of Climate Change and Land Use Change and Linkages to Food Production in Semiarid Regions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Longuevergne, L.; Favreau, G.; Zheng, C.; Cao, G.; Shen, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Water scarcity is a critical issue with 1.1 billion people lacking access to safe drinking water. Water scarcity is strongly linked to food production as irrigated agriculture consumed 90% of global fresh water resources during the past century. This presentation will focus on groundwater availability in semiarid regions considering climate change and land use change using data from the US High Plains, California Central Valley, SE Australia, North China Plain, and West Africa using satellite and ground-based data. Land use change from natural ecosystems to rainfed agroecosystems has increased groundwater resources in many semiarid regions by changing partitioning of water at the land surface because of shallower rooting depths and fallowing without vegetation. However, increased recharge has degraded groundwater quality by mobilizing salts into underlying aquifers, particularly in SE Australia and SW US. Pleistocene-Holocene climate change has decreased water availability in these regions because of reduced recharge related to decreased precipitation and increased temperature. Irrigated agriculture has had large scale impacts on water resources by depleting groundwater, as documented in the US High Plains and Central Valley and North China Plain. In addition to depleting groundwater quantity, irrigation greatly degrades water quality by loading chemicals into the system through irrigation water and fertilizer applications. Projected changes in the intensity of the hydrologic cycle, with longer term droughts interspersed with more intense floods, will exacerbate water scarcity issues in these regions in the future and increase emphasis in irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

  11. Possibilities and limits of an international policy of climate protection with due consideration to the behaviour of resources supplier states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is only recently that the economic literature has begun to take account of the interdependence of ecopolitical and resource-economic issues, a connection that has become particularly evident with the emergence of the greenhouse effect. The importance of paying due respect to the protagonists of the world energy markets and their individual interests becomes especially clear when preventive strategies of climate protection need to be developed. It will be for the worse of the environmental situation if the developing countries refuse to participate in a climate protection policy based on a CO2 tax and instead use the opportunity of falling energy prices in the world market to increase their energy consumption. Altogether, the dissertation gives a very pessimistic outlook on the cooperativeness of the world community with regard to a preventive policy of climate protection. It advocates further efforts to make use of all the potential for reduction there is while at the sametime conceding that this will hardly produce much success by the time the first large-scale adverse effects of climatic change set in. For this reason it appears wise to start even today with the development of concepts facilitating a continuous adaptation the changes that come. (orig./HSCH)

  12. The use of whole food animal studies in the safety assessment of genetically modified crops: limitations and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholomaeus, Andrew; Parrott, Wayne; Bondy, Genevieve; Walker, Kate

    2013-11-01

    There is disagreement internationally across major regulatory jurisdictions on the relevance and utility of whole food (WF) toxicity studies on GM crops, with no harmonization of data or regulatory requirements. The scientific value, and therefore animal ethics, of WF studies on GM crops is a matter addressable from the wealth of data available on commercialized GM crops and WF studies on irradiated foods. We reviewed available GM crop WF studies and considered the extent to which they add to the information from agronomic and compositional analyses. No WF toxicity study was identified that convincingly demonstrated toxicological concern or that called into question the adequacy, sufficiency, and reliability of safety assessments based on crop molecular characterization, transgene source, agronomic characteristics, and/or compositional analysis of the GM crop and its near-isogenic line. Predictions of safety based on crop genetics and compositional analyses have provided complete concordance with the results of well-conducted animal testing. However, this concordance is primarily due to the improbability of de novo generation of toxic substances in crop plants using genetic engineering practices and due to the weakness of WF toxicity studies in general. Thus, based on the comparative robustness and reliability of compositional and agronomic considerations and on the absence of any scientific basis for a significant potential for de novo generation of toxicologically significant compositional alterations as a sole result of transgene insertion, the conclusion of this review is that WF animal toxicity studies are unnecessary and scientifically unjustifiable. PMID:24164514

  13. Proceedings of a workshop on "Wheat productivity in the EU: determinants and challenges for food security and for climate change"

    OpenAIRE

    VIGANI MAURO; DILLEN KOEN; Rodriguez Cerezo, Emilio

    2013-01-01

    Wheat is one of the world’s key staple products, with a global production of 654.7 million tons in 2010. Currently, wheat is providing 21% of the food calories and 20% of the protein to more than 4.5 billion people. Wheat production is highly concentrated in a few countries, and the European Union is by far the most important producer accounting for 21% of total world harvest (EUROSTAT). In the next decades it is expected an increase in the global demand of food, and of wheat in particular. T...

  14. Food Poverty, Climate Change and Land Access in central Uganda: A focus on low-income women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nambuanyi, Lekunze Ransom

    2014-01-01

    of food insecurity among low-income women (farmers) in central Uganda, positing the view that the agricultural and livelihood choices women farmers make are subject to the constraints they face and the policy alternatives available for them. Uganda is burdened with rising poverty, malnutrition and...

  15. Can we still comply with the maximum limit of 2°C? Approaches to a New Climate Contract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Radermacher

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The international climate policy is in trouble. CO2 emissions are rising instead of shrinking. The 2025 climate summit in Paris should lead to a global agreement, but what should be its design? In an earlier paper in Cadmus on the issue, the author outlined a contract formula based on the so-called ‘Copenhagen Accord’ that is based on a dynamic cap and an intelligent burden sharing between politics and the private sector. The private sector was brought into the deal via the idea of a voluntary climate neutrality of private emissions culminating in a ‘Global Neutral’ promoted by the United Nations. All this was based on a global cap-and-trade system. For a number of reasons, it may be that a global cap-and-trade system cannot or will not be established. States may use other instruments to fulfil their promises. The present paper elaborates that even under such conditions, the basic proposal can still be implemented. This may prove useful for the Paris negotiations.

  16. Climate change, cattle herd vulnerability and food insecurity : adaptation through livestock diversification in the Borana pastoral system of Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Megersa Bati, Bekele

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the dominant drivers of changing patterns in precipitation, rise in temperature and increasing frequency of extreme weather events that present a major challenge to livestock production in arid and semi-arid environments. In the Borana region of southern Ethiopia, the resulting reduction in the resilience of rangelands and heavy cattle losses associated with recurrent droughts pose serious challenges to cattle pastoralism. This study aimed at investigating regional ma...

  17. Applying the concept of the ecological niche and a macroecological approach to understand how climate influences zooplankton: Advantages, assumptions, limitations and requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaugrand, Gregory; Mackas, Dave; Goberville, Eric

    2013-04-01

    Ecosystem effects of climate change have been detected in all components of the Earth System. In the marine biosphere, climate-change responses have caused large and well-documented biogeographical and phenological shifts, which have in turn altered local dominance hierarchies, and also the structure, diversity and functional linkages within regional marine ecosystems. There is an urgent need to improve both our knowledge of the global-scale effects of climate change on marine biodiversity and our capacity to project future impacts. But extrapolation of previously estimated changes to additional places and to future conditions is complicated by non-linear responses to environmental variables, and also by complexities of multivariate interaction that can lead to tipping-points. In this paper, we show how observations from widely-spaced locations can be combined to characterise the ecological niche of a species, and how the concept of the niche can be used to understand and project how climate-induced changes in temperatures will alter marine zooplankton both locally and globally. As an example to illustrate our view, we apply this framework to the relatively well-known copepod Calanus finmarchicus. Our results suggest that climate change will strongly affect the local abundance of this species in the North Atlantic Ocean by the end of this century. Predicted changes are large (e.g. increase by ±6-10-fold of the temporal changes in the abundance of C. finmarchicus) and vary as a function of the magnitude of warming and the local sign and steepness of the thermal niche. Substantial rates of change hold even under optimistic climatic scenarii. After reviewing the main limitations of the niche concept in bioclimatological research, we argue that the application of this concept in ecology and bioclimatology might nevertheless represent the best tool currently available to scientists to discern and anticipate the effect of global climate change on species and ecosystems

  18. Parameterizing sub-surface drainage with geology to improve modeling streamflow responses to climate in data limited environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Tague

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic models are one of the core tools used to project how water resources may change under a warming climate. These models are typically applied over a range of scales, from headwater streams to higher order rivers, and for a variety of purposes, such as evaluating changes to aquatic habitat or reservoir operation. Most hydrologic models require streamflow data to calibrate subsurface drainage parameters. In many cases, long-term gage records may not be available for calibration, particularly when assessments are focused on low order stream reaches. Consequently, hydrologic modeling of climate change impacts is often performed in the absence of sufficient data to fully parameterize these hydrologic models. In this paper, we assess a geologic-based strategy for assigning drainage parameters. We examine the performance of this modeling strategy for the McKenzie River watershed in the US Oregon Cascades, a region where previous work has demonstrated sharp contrasts in hydrology based primarily on geological differences between the High and Western Cascades. Based on calibration and verification using existing streamflow data, we demonstrate that: (1 a set of streams ranging from 1st to 3rd order within the Western Cascade geologic region can share the same drainage parameter set, and (2 streams from the High Cascade geologic region, however, require a distinctive parameter set. Further, we show that a watershed comprised of a mixture of High and Western Cascade geology can be modeled without additional calibration by transferring parameters from these distinctive High and Western Cascade end-member parameter sets. Using this geologically-based parameter transfer scheme, our model predictions for all watersheds capture dominant historic streamflow patterns, and are sufficiently accurate to resolve geo-climatic differences in how these different watersheds are likely to respond to simple warming scenarios.

  19. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-F. Schleussner

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Currently, two such levels are discussed in the context of the international climate negotiations as long-term global temperature goals: a below 2 °C and a 1.5 °C limit in global-mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive assessment of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and several hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 % longer to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in

  20. Food Security: Climate Change and Industrial Transfer%粮食安全:气候变化与粮食产地转移

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周力; 周应恒

    2011-01-01

    Based on the provincial panel data from 1985 to 2008, this paper demonstrates the action mechanism of climate change on grain cultivation scale and per unit yields, and analyzes the impact of industrial transfer on food security. The conclusion shows: (1) rice, wheat and corn industries are respectively transferring to areas in that lack resources like Heilongjiang, Henan and Inner Mongolia, etc. ; (2) the dominant factor of transfer lies in the cost-benefit comparison between grain crops and cash crops, crop farming and livestock breeding, agriculture and non-agriculture, while the climate change factor is only in a subsidiary status; (3) based on the mechanism of scale effect, income effect and rebound effect, the three northeastern provinces, Henan and Inner Mongolia have better growth potential than the other regions; (4) the productive and political cost for adapting to climate change in backward regions is usually less than the opportunity cost for maintaining food production in developed regions. Food production transferring from the developed regions to the less developed regions should be sustainable. And there is no conflict between individual rationality and collective rationality in the process of food origin transferring. China should increase investment in weather forecasting, water conservancy facilities, anti-disaster capability, farmland reconstruction and others, abandon the traditional concept of regional balance, optimize resource allocation across the country, and use the national food reserve strategy to counter the risk of mass disaster.%基于1985-2008年中国雀际面板数据,实证检验了气候变化对粮食种植规模与单位产量的作用机制,进而分析了产地转移对国家粮食总供给的影响.结论表明:①中国的稻谷、小麦、玉米产业正分别向黑龙江、河南、内蒙古等气候资源匮乏地区转移或集聚;②粮食产地转移的主导因素在于粮食作物与经济作物、种植业与畜

  1. The Climate change impact on the water balance and use efficiency of two contrasting water limited Mediterranean ecosystems in Sardinia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaldo, Nicola; Corona, Roberto; Albertson, John

    2016-04-01

    Mediterranean ecosystems are commonly heterogeneous savanna-like ecosystems, with contrasting plant functional types (PFT) competing for the water use. Often deforestation activities have been more intensive along the plan and alluvial river valleys, where deep soils are well suited for agricultural and grass became the primary PFT, while more natural woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) survived in the steep hillslopes and mountain areas, where soil thickness is low, i.e. less attractive for agricultural. Hence, Mediterranean regions are characterized by two main ecosystems, grassland and woodland, which for both natural and anthropogenic causes can grow in soils with also different characteristics (texture, hydraulic properties, depth), highly impacting water resources. Mediterranean regions suffer water scarcity produced in part by natural (e.g., climate variations) influences. For instance, in the Flumendosa basin water reservoir system, which plays a primary role in the water supply for much of southern Sardinia, the average annual input from stream discharge in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate. The precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed, precipitation decreased in winter months, which are crucial for reservoirs recharge through runoff. At the same time air temperature increased during the spring-summer season, when the precipitation slightly increased. The IPCC models predicts a further increase of drought in the Mediterranean region during winter, increasing the uncertainty on the future of the water resources system of these regions. Hence, there is the need to investigate the role of the PFT vegetation dynamics on the soil water budget of these ecosystems in the context of the climate change, and predict hydrologic variables for climate change scenarios

  2. What Food is to be Kept Safe and for Whom? Food-Safety Governance in an Unsafe Food System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha McMahon

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that discussion of new food-safety governance should be framed by the realization that the dominant food system within which food-safety governance is designed to makes food safe is itself a structural and systemic sources of food un-safety, poor health and a future of food insecurity for many. For some, an appropriate policy response lies in addressing the connections between the food system and diseases such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes. For others it means subsuming food-safety governance within food security governance. For yet others, safe food implies food sovereignty governance and the primacy of a climate change resilient food system. Conventional approaches to food-safety governance are typically framed within a liability model of responsibility that has limited usefulness for addressing institutional, structural or systemic sources of harm such as those critics increasingly attribute to the dominant food system and which are not amenable to remedy by food-safety governance as it is widely understood. One cannot identify critical hazard points where risk is to be managed. These are food-system safety challenges. Because food-safety governance is so deeply political there needs to be greater attention to issues of governance rather than the more usual focus on the technologies of food-safety. Feminist political theorists have much to contribute to re-thinking food-safety governance in the context of diversity and the complexities of power. One could usefully start with the simple questions, “what food is to be kept-safe, for whom and who is the subject of food-safety governance in a post-Westphalian political economic order?” These questions can help unpack both the narrow parochialism and the misleading universalism of food-safety talk. This paper answers that neither the citizens of a particular state (or network of states nor the falsely universalizing identity of ‘the consumer’ are adequate answers

  3. Simulation of forest tree species' bud burst dates for different climate scenarios: chilling requirements and photo-period may limit bud burst advancement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Maximilian; Schaber, Jörg; Marx, Andreas; Jäckel, Greta; Badeck, Franz-Werner; Seppelt, Ralf; Doktor, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates whether the assumed increase of winter and spring temperatures is depicted by phenological models in correspondingly earlier bud burst (BB) dates. Some studies assume that rising temperatures lead to an earlier BB, but even later BB has been detected. The phenological model PIM (promoter-inhibitor-model) fitted to the extensive phenological database of the German Weather Service was driven by several climate scenarios. This model accounts for the complicated mechanistic interactions between chilling requirements, temperature and photo-period. It predicts BB with a r 2 between 0.41 and 0.62 and a RMSE of around 1 week, depending on species. Parameter sensitivities depict species dependent interactions between growth and chilling requirements as well as photo-period. A mean trend to earlier BB was revealed for the period 2002- 2100, varying between -0.05 and -0.11 days per year, depending on species. These trends are lower than for the period 1951- 2009. Within climate scenario period, trends are decreasing for beech and chestnut, stagnating for birch and increasing for oak. Results suggest that not fulfilled chilling requirements accompanied by an increasing dependency on photo-period potentially limit future BB advancement. The combination of a powerful phenological model, a large scale phenological database and several climate scenarios, offers new insights into the mechanistic comprehension of spring phenology.

  4. Using nudging to improve global-regional dynamic consistency in limited-area climate modeling: What should we nudge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

    2015-03-01

    Regional climate modelling sometimes requires that the regional model be nudged towards the large-scale driving data to avoid the development of inconsistencies between them. These inconsistencies are known to produce large surface temperature and rainfall artefacts. Therefore, it is essential to maintain the synoptic circulation within the simulation domain consistent with the synoptic circulation at the domain boundaries. Nudging techniques, initially developed for data assimilation purposes, are increasingly used in regional climate modeling and offer a workaround to this issue. In this context, several questions on the "optimal" use of nudging are still open. In this study we focus on a specific question which is: What variable should we nudge? in order to maintain the consistencies between the regional model and the driving fields as much as possible. For that, a "Big Brother Experiment", where a reference atmospheric state is known, is conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Euro-Mediterranean region. A set of 22 3-month simulations is performed with different sets of nudged variables and nudging options (no nudging, indiscriminate nudging, spectral nudging) for summer and winter. The results show that nudging clearly improves the model capacity to reproduce the reference fields. However the skill scores depend on the set of variables used to nudge the regional climate simulations. Nudging the tropospheric horizontal wind is by far the key variable to nudge to simulate correctly surface temperature and wind, and rainfall. To a lesser extent, nudging tropospheric temperature also contributes to significantly improve the simulations. Indeed, nudging tropospheric wind or temperature directly impacts the simulation of the tropospheric geopotential height and thus the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. Nudging moisture improves the precipitation but the impact on the other fields (wind and temperature) is not significant. As

  5. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for

  6. One Health, One World—The Intersecting Legal Regimes of Trade, Climate Change, Food Security, Humanitarian Crises, and Migration

    OpenAIRE

    Kelli K. Garcia; Gostin, Lawrence O.

    2012-01-01

    Today’s global health challenges require a multi-sectoral approach in which health is a fundamental value within global governance and international law. “One Health, One World†provides a unified, harmonious vision of global health governance that supports the wellbeing of humans and animals living in a clean and temperate environment. This article focuses on five legal regimes—trade law, food security law, environmental law, humanitarian law, and refugee law—that play a pivotal rol...

  7. Smallholder Irrigation and Crop Diversification under Climate Change in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence and Potential for Simultaneous Food Security, Adaptation, and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R.; Burney, J. A.; Postel, S.

    2011-12-01

    The poorest populations in sub-Saharan Africa live in rural areas and depend on smallholder agricultural production for their livelihoods. Over 90% of all farmed area in Sub-Saharan Africa is rainfed, with crop production centering on 3-5 months of rainfall. Rapid population growth is reducing land per capita ratios, and low yields for staple crops make food security an increasingly challenging goal. Malnutrition, most noticeable among children, peaks during the dry season. Recent data on aggregate economic growth and investment in Africa hide these patterns of seasonal hunger and income disparity. Perhaps most perversely, smallholder farmers in the dry tropical regions of sub-Saharan Africa are (and will continue to be) some of the earliest and hardest hit by climate change. Our research focuses on the role distributed, small-scale irrigation can play in food security and climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa. As Asia's agricultural success has demonstrated, irrigation, when combined with the availability of inputs (fertilizer) and improved crop varieties, can enable year-round production, growth in rural incomes, and a dramatic reduction in hunger. The situation in Africa is markedly different: agroecological conditions are far more heterogeneous than in Asia and evaporation rates are relatively high; most smallholders lack access to fertilizers; and market integration is constrained by infrastructure, information, and private sector incentives. Yet from a resource perspective, national- and regional-level estimates suggest that Internal Renewable Water Resources (IRWR) are nowhere near fully exploited in Sub-Saharan Africa -- even in the Sudano-Sahel, which is considered to be one of the driest regions of the continent. Irrigation can thus be implemented on a much larger scale sustainably. We will present (a) results from controlled, experimental field studies of solar-powered drip irrigation systems in the rural Sudano-Sahel region of West Africa. We

  8. On the Water-Food Nexus: an Optimization Approach for Water and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortada, Sarah; Abou Najm, Majdi; Yassine, Ali; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem

    2016-04-01

    Water and food security is facing increased challenges with population increase, climate and land use change, as well as resource depletion coupled with pollution and unsustainable practices. Coordinated and effective management of limited natural resources have become an imperative to meet these challenges by optimizing the usage of resources under various constraints. In this study, an optimization model is developed for optimal resource allocation towards sustainable water and food security under nutritional, socio-economic, agricultural, environmental, and natural resources constraints. The core objective of this model is to maximize the composite water-food security status by recommending an optimal water and agricultural strategy. The model balances between the healthy nutritional demand side and the constrained supply side while considering the supply chain in between. It equally ensures that the population achieves recommended nutritional guidelines and population food-preferences by quantifying an optimum agricultural and water policy through transforming optimum food demands into optimum cropping policy given the water and land footprints of each crop or agricultural product. Through this process, water and food security are optimized considering factors that include crop-food transformation (food processing), water footprints, crop yields, climate, blue and green water resources, irrigation efficiency, arable land resources, soil texture, and economic policies. The model performance regarding agricultural practices and sustainable food and water security was successfully tested and verified both at a hypothetical and pilot scale levels.

  9. Estimated general population control limits for unitary agents in drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items. For use in reentry decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, A.P.; Adams, J.D.; Cerar, R.J.; Hess, T.L.; Kistner, S.L.; Leffingwell, S.S.; MacIntosh, R.G.; Ward, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    In the event of an unplanned release of chemical agent during any stage of the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (CSDP), the potential exists for contamination of drinking water, forage crops, grains, garden produce, and livestock. Persistent agents such as VX or sulfur mustard pose the greatest human health concern for reentry. This White Paper has been prepared to provide technical bases for these decisions by developing working estimates of agent control limits in selected environmental media considered principal sources of potential human exposure. To date, control limits for public exposure to unitary agents have been established for atmospheric concentrations only. The current analysis builds on previous work to calculate working estimates of control limits for ingestion and dermal exposure to potentially contaminated drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items such as garden produce. Information characterizing agent desorption from, and detection on or in, contaminated porous media are presently too developed to permit reasonable estimation of dermal exposure from this source. Thus, dermal contact with potentially contaminated porous surfaces is not considered in this document.

  10. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  11. Water limitations on forest carbon cycling and conifer traits along a steep climatic gradient in the Cascade Mountains, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

    2015-11-01

    Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades, and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the transition from low-elevation, dry western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) woodlands to higher-elevation, wetter ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. We examined 12 sites in mature forests that spanned a 1300 mm yr-1 gradient in mean growing-year climate moisture index (CMIgy ), computed annually (1964 to 2013) as monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration and summed October to September. Maximum leaf area, annual aboveground productivity, and aboveground live tree biomass increased with CMIgy (r2 = 0.67-0.88, P gy (r2 = 0.53, P gy and extensive insect outbreak. Traits of stress-tolerant juniper included short stature, high wood density for cavitation resistance, and high investment in water transport relative to leaf area. Species occupying wetter areas invested more resources in height growth in response to competition for light relative to investment in hydraulic architecture. Consequently, maximum tree height, leaf area : sapwood area ratio, and stem wood density were all correlated with CMIgy . The tight coupling of forest carbon cycling and species traits with water availability suggests that warmer and drier conditions projected for the 21st century could have significant biogeochemical, ecological, and social consequences in the Pacific Northwest.

  12. Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.

  13. Food and Water Gaps to 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grafton, Q.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation reviews the pressures, threats and risks to food availability and water based on projected global population growth to 2050. An original model, the Global Food and Water System (GWFS) Platform, is introduced and used to explore food deficits under various scenarios and also the implications for future water gaps. The GWFS platform can assess the effects of crop productivity on food production and incorporates data from 19 major food producing nations to generate a global projection of food and water gaps. Preliminary results indicate that while crop food supply is able to meet global crop food demand by 2050, this is possible only with 'input intensification' that includes increased average rates of water and fertiliser use per hectare and at least a 20% increase in average yield productivity (once and for all). Increased water withdrawals for agriculture with input intensification would, absent any increases in withdrawals in the manufacturing or household uses, would place the world very close to the limits of a safe operating space in terms overall water use by 2050. While global crop food supply can meet projected global demand with input intensification, this still results in large and growing crop food deficits to 2050 in some countries, especially in South Asia, where climate change is expected to increase variability of rainfall and, in some places, reduce overall freshwater availability. While beyond the confines of the GWFS Platform the implications of expected water withdrawals on the environment in particular locations are also briefly reviewed.

  14. Climatic signals in tree-ring stable isotope records from the U.S. Great Lakes subfossil wood network: Successes and limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panyushkina, Irina; Leavitt, Steven

    2015-04-01

    Hydroclimatic proxy studies and general circulation models suggest diverse spatial-temporal patterns of North American environmental variability during the last deglaciation. The U.S. Great Lakes network of subfossil tree rings comprises tree-ring proxy records ranging in length from 100 to 320 years originating along the margin of the Laurentide ice sheet. We explore application of stable isotope measurements from the floating tree-ring chronologies to assess climatic variance and ultimately vegetation response to abrupt environmental changes in the Great Lakes region associated with the Older Dryas, Younger Dryas and Preboreal cooling events. Comparison of tree-ring widths and δ13C and δ18O records from black and white spruce from four sites (Two Creeks-WI, Shelton-MI, Liverpool-IN and Gribben Basin-WI) dating back to ca. 13.7ka,13.5ka, 12ka and 11.2ka BP capture diverse climatic signals although there seems to be some instability in the relationships with the isotopic signatures of tree rings. Intercomparison of tree-ring isotopic signatures of the ancient chronologies and modern analog sites from Manitoba, Canada, suggests positive relationships between summer temperature and dew point with δ13C and tree-ring widths of white spruce. The δ18O signal of the subfossil tree rings is commonly different from δ13C, suggesting greater δ18O correspondence to moisture variance. Nevertheless, the last few decades of 100-to-300-year tree-ring records demonstrate unusual behavior and their stable isotopic ratios vary greatly in response to rapid changes in local hydrology. It is possible that an influx of glacial meltwater or rapidly rising water table are forcing the discordance of coupling temperature -moisture climatic signals in the studied tree-ring records prior to tree dieback or mortality. We discuss the merit and limitations in interpretation of tree-ring proxies from stable isotope measurements during the last deglaciation. The floating chronology tree

  15. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  16. Decadal Variations in NDVI and Food Production in India

    OpenAIRE

    Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Srivastava, Ashok N.; Prasad S. Thenkabail; Sangram Ganguly; K. Krishna Kumar; Hirofumi Hashimoto; Arindam Samanta; Cristina Milesi; Ranga B. Myneni

    2010-01-01

    In this study we use long-term satellite, climate, and crop observations to document the spatial distribution of the recent stagnation in food grain production affecting the water-limited tropics (WLT), a region where 1.5 billion people live and depend on local agriculture that is constrained by chronic water shortages. Overall, our analysis shows that the recent stagnation in food production is corroborated by satellite data. The growth rate in annually integrated vegetation greenness, a mea...

  17. The Climate for Creativity and Innovation in the Fuzzy Front End of Innovation : A Case Study at Arla Foods

    OpenAIRE

    Wahlström, Fanny; Jutbo, Malin

    2013-01-01

    Innovation is a key factor for economic development and growth, and firms need to continuously innovate in order to stay competitive. However, innovation is complicated in today’s markets as there are many different aspects for companies to manage. The very first phase of innovation, the fuzzy front end (FFE), is critical and this phase presents one of the greatest opportunities of improvement for the overall innovation process. Yet, the research on this phase is limited. The new product deve...

  18. Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: Producing Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L. and Bush Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L. for Improved Food Security and Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First Nations Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine D. Barbeau

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Aboriginal people in Canada experience disproportionately high rates of diet-related illnesses, such as obesity and diabetes. Food insecurity has been identified as a contributing factor to these illnesses along with a loss of traditional lifestyle. Current food systems within northern subarctic and arctic regions of Canada rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available, and are environmentally unsustainable. A warming subarctic and arctic climate present challenges, but also offers the opportunity for local agricultural production that can increase food security and promote a more sustainable food system. In this study the feasibility of sustainably growing potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L. utilizing agroforestry practices to enhance food security in remote subarctic communities is explored through a case study in Fort Albany First Nation in northern Ontario, Canada. Potato crops were grown over a two-year period and rotated into plots that had been planted with green bush beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.. Results showed that potatoes and bush beans could be grown successfully in the subarctic without the use of greenhouses with yields comparable to more conventional high-input agricultural methods. In subarctic Canada, sustainable local food production can help to promote social capital, healthier lifestyles, and food security.

  19. Seasonal Variation in the Voluntary Food Intake of Domesticated Cats (Felis Catus)

    OpenAIRE

    Serisier, Samuel; Feugier, Alexandre; Delmotte, Sebastien; Biourge, Vincent; German, Alexander James

    2014-01-01

    There are numerous reports about seasonal cycles on food intake in animals but information is limited in dogs and cats. A 4-year prospective, observational, cohort study was conducted to assess differences in food intake in 38 ad-libitum-fed adult colony cats, of various breeds, ages and genders. Individual food intake was recorded on a daily basis, and the mean daily intake for each calendar month was calculated. These data were compared with climatic data (temperature and daylight length) f...

  20. Seasonal Variation in the Voluntary Food Intake of Domesticated Cats (Felis Catus)

    OpenAIRE

    Samuel Serisier; Alexandre Feugier; Sébastien Delmotte; Vincent Biourge; Alexander James German

    2014-01-01

    International audience There are numerous reports about seasonal cycles on food intake in animals but information is limited in dogs and cats. A 4-year prospective, observational, cohort study was conducted to assess differences in food intake in 38 ad-libitum-fed adult colony cats, of various breeds, ages and genders. Individual food intake was recorded on a daily basis, and the mean daily intake for each calendar month was calculated. These data were compared with climatic data (temperat...

  1. Influence of climate on tree rings and vessel features in red oak and white oak growing near their northern distribution limit, southwestern Quebec, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tardif, J.C.; Conciatori, F. [Winnipeg Univ., MB (Canada). Centre for Forest Interdisciplinary Research

    2006-09-15

    A study assessing the association between tree-ring descriptors, vessel series and climate change in white oak and red oak species was presented. Ten trees of each oak species were analyzed at a site in southern Quebec. For each species, 11 chronologies using vessel and ring width were developed and then compared. The potential for using vessel features in climate reconstructions was evaluated by comparing 4 regression models resulting from different combinations of variables: (1) ring width with 1 variable per species; (2) earlywood, latewood and ring width; (3) vessel variables; and (4) all chronologies. Results indicated that there was little difference between the 2 species. All vessel chronologies were associated with ring dimension, and did not reveal a unique climate signature. Growing season conditions were associated with latewood features, whereas those of the previous year were associated with earlywood features. All 4 models developed to reconstruct the July Canadian Drought Code (CDC) showed good predictive ability. Models using vessel variables did not improve estimations. Good reconstruction models were derived from earlywood, latewood, and ring-width chronologies. The results suggested that vessel chronologies have limited applications in dendroclimatology, and that vessel features are best used to identify event years recorded during the life of the trees. Vessel features in ring-porous species may also be used to decipher discontinuous signals related to tree growth in order to understand tree physiology. It was concluded that the vessel features provided no new information beyond that obtained from the much easier and cheaper measurement of ring width in paleoclimatic records. 56 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

  2. Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2015-12-01

    It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is

  3. Long-term increase in mesozooplankton biomass in the Sargasso Sea: Linkage to climate and implications for food web dynamics and biogeochemical cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Deborah K.; Lomas, Michael W.; Cope, Joseph S.

    2012-03-01

    Changes in zooplankton biomass and species composition over long time scales can have significant effects on biogeochemical cycling and transfer of energy to higher trophic levels. We analyzed size-fractionated mesozooplankton biomass (>200μm) from biweekly to monthly day and night tows taken from 1994 to 2010 in the epipelagic zone at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) site in the oligotrophic North Atlantic subtropical gyre. During this 17-year period total mesozooplankton biomass increased 61% overall, although a few short-term downturns occurred over the course of the time series. The overall increase was higher in the nighttime compared to daytime, resulting in an increase in calculated diel vertical migrator biomass. The largest seasonal increase in total biomass was in the late-winter to spring (February-April). Associated with the larger increase in late-winter/spring biomass was a shift in the timing of annual peak biomass during the latter half of the time series (from March/April to a distinct March peak for all size fractions combined, and April to March for the 2-5 mm size fractions). Zooplankton biomass was positively correlated with sea-surface temperature, water column stratification, and primary production, and negatively correlated with mean temperature between 300 and 600 m. Significant correlations exist between multidecadal climate indices-the North Atlantic Oscillation plus three different Pacific Ocean climate indices, and BATS zooplankton biomass, indicating connections between patterns in climate forcing and ecosystem response. Resultant changes in biogeochemical cycling include an increase in the magnitude of both active carbon flux by diel vertical migration and passive carbon flux of fecal pellets as components of the export flux. The most likely mechanism driving the zooplankton biomass increase is bottom-up control by smaller phytoplankton, which has also increased in biomass and production at BATS, translating up the

  4. Got green milk? A field experimental trial of consumer demand for a climate label

    OpenAIRE

    Matsdotter, Elina; Elofsson, Katarina; Arntyr, Johan

    2014-01-01

    A majority of consumers claim to prefer climate-labelled food over non-labelled alternatives. However, there is limited empirical evidence that such labels actually influence consumer behaviour when shopping. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether qualitative information about a voluntary climate labelling scheme affects the demand for milk in the short run. In a randomized field experiment conducted in 17 retail stores in Sweden, the effects of a climate label on milk demand was...

  5. Long-term increase of fat mass after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limitation of physical activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background A sedentary lifestyle and increased consumption of energy dense food have become more common in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to study long term effects on body composition after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limited physical activity in young normal weight subjects. Methods Eighteen subjects, mean age 26 (6.6) years, increased their energy intake with in average 70% and physical activity were not to exceed 5000 steps/day. Body composition was measured by Dual energy x-ray (DXA) at baseline, after the intervention and after 12 months. A matched control group was also included. ANOVA and Student's paired and unpaired t-test were used. Results During the intervention body weight increased with 6.4 (2.8) kg and DXA measurements showed increases of both fat free mass and fat mass. Six months after the intervention the subjects had lost most of the weight gain, - 4.7 (3.1) kg. Twelve months after the intervention body weight had increased with 1.5 (2.4) kg compared to baseline (p = 0.018). DXA measurements at 12 months showed unchanged fat free mass compared to baseline but higher fat mass, + 1.4 (1.9) kg (p = 0.01). After 2.5 years the increase of body weight was 3.1 (4.0) kg (p = 0.01) while there was no change in controls compared to baseline, + 0.1(2.5) kg (p = 0.88). Conclusion One year after a short term intervention with increased fast food based hyper-alimentation there was an increase of fat mass but unchanged fat free mass. As the change of fat mass was larger than expected from prospective epidemiological studies and as there was no increase of body weight in controls it raises the issue whether there is a long-term effect to increase fat mass of a short period of hyper-alimentation. PMID:20738843

  6. Long-term increase of fat mass after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limitation of physical activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernersson Åsa

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A sedentary lifestyle and increased consumption of energy dense food have become more common in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to study long term effects on body composition after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limited physical activity in young normal weight subjects. Methods Eighteen subjects, mean age 26 (6.6 years, increased their energy intake with in average 70% and physical activity were not to exceed 5000 steps/day. Body composition was measured by Dual energy x-ray (DXA at baseline, after the intervention and after 12 months. A matched control group was also included. ANOVA and Student's paired and unpaired t-test were used. Results During the intervention body weight increased with 6.4 (2.8 kg and DXA measurements showed increases of both fat free mass and fat mass. Six months after the intervention the subjects had lost most of the weight gain, - 4.7 (3.1 kg. Twelve months after the intervention body weight had increased with 1.5 (2.4 kg compared to baseline (p = 0.018. DXA measurements at 12 months showed unchanged fat free mass compared to baseline but higher fat mass, + 1.4 (1.9 kg (p = 0.01. After 2.5 years the increase of body weight was 3.1 (4.0 kg (p = 0.01 while there was no change in controls compared to baseline, + 0.1(2.5 kg (p = 0.88. Conclusion One year after a short term intervention with increased fast food based hyper-alimentation there was an increase of fat mass but unchanged fat free mass. As the change of fat mass was larger than expected from prospective epidemiological studies and as there was no increase of body weight in controls it raises the issue whether there is a long-term effect to increase fat mass of a short period of hyper-alimentation.

  7. 21 CFR 878.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 878.9 Section 878.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES GENERAL AND PLASTIC SURGERY..., and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section...

  8. New Feed Sources Key to Ambitious Climate Targets

    OpenAIRE

    Walsh, B.(Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States of America)

    2015-01-01

    Net carbon sinks capable of avoiding dangerous perturbation of the climate system and preventing ocean acidification have been identified, but they are likely to be limited by resource constraints. Land scarcity already creates tension between food security and bioenergy production, and this competition is likely to intensify as populations and the effects of climate change expand. Despite research into microalgae as a next-generation energy source, the land-sparing consequences of alternativ...

  9. New feed sources key to ambitious climate targets

    OpenAIRE

    Walsh, Brian J.; Rydzak, Felicjan; Palazzo, Amanda; Kraxner, Florian; Herrero, Mario; Schenk, Peer M.; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A.; Peñuelas, Josep; Niederl-Schmidinger, Anneliese; Obersteiner, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Net carbon sinks capable of avoiding dangerous perturbation of the climate system and preventing ocean acidification have been identified, but they are likely to be limited by resource constraints (Nature 463:747–756, 2010). Land scarcity already creates tension between food security and bioenergy production, and this competition is likely to intensify as populations and the effects of climate change expand. Despite research into microalgae as a next-generation energy source, the land-sparing...

  10. Growing sensitivity of maize to water scarcity under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Qingfeng Meng; Xinping Chen; Lobell, David B; Zhenling Cui; Yi Zhang; Haishun Yang; Fusuo Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB). We report that moder...

  11. Climate change and health in Earth's future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

    2014-02-01

    Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

  12. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A

    2015-11-01

    Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. PMID:26577595

  13. [Comparison of potential yield and resource utilization efficiency of main food crops in three provinces of Northeast China under climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-yu; Yang, Xiao-guang; Sun, Shuang; Xie, Wen-juan

    2015-10-01

    Based on the daily data of 65 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 and the crop phenology data in the potential cultivation zones of thermophilic and chimonophilous crops in Northeast China, the crop potential yields were calculated through step-by-step correction method. The spatio-temporal distribution of the crop potential yields at different levels was analyzed. And then we quantified the limitations of temperature and precipitation on the crop potential yields and compared the differences in the climatic resource utilization efficiency. The results showed that the thermal potential yields of six crops (including maize, rice, spring wheat, sorghum, millet and soybean) during the period 1961-2010 deceased from west to east. The climatic potential yields of the five crops (spring wheat not included) were higher in the south than in the north. The potential yield loss rate due to temperature limitations of the six crops presented a spatial distribution pattern and was higher in the east than in the west. Among the six main crops, the yield potential loss rate due to temperature limitation of the soybean was the highest (51%), and those of the other crops fluctuated within the range of 33%-41%. The potential yield loss rate due to water limitation had an obvious regional difference, and was high in Songnen Plain and Changbai Mountains. The potential yield loss rate of spring wheat was the highest (50%), and those of the other four rainfed crops fluctuated within the range of 8%-10%. The solar energy utilization efficiency of the six main crops ranged from 0.9% to 2.7%, in the order of maize> sorghum>rice>millet>spring wheat>soybean. The precipitation utilization efficiency of the maize, sorghum, spring wheat, millet and soybean under rainfed conditions ranged from 8 to 35 kg . hm-2 . mm-1, in the order of maize>sorghum>spring wheat>millet>soybean. In those areas with lower efficiency of solar energy utilization and precipitation utilization, such as Changbai

  14. Public policy and regulatory strategies in the global climate change context: opportunities and limitations of programmatic CDM; Politicas publicas e estrategias regulatorias no contexto das mudancas climaticas globais: oportunidades e limitacoes do MDL programatico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romeiro, Viviane; Simoes, Andre Felipe; Januzzi, Gilberto M. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FEM/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos

    2008-07-01

    Carbon Market and its implications to reduce green house effect has been broadly discussed in the context of global climate change. This paper intends to analyze the new regulation of global climate change since Programmatic CDM was created, describing the proceeds to its implementation and discussing limitations and opportunities analyzes of this mechanism as a tool to obtain alternative energy source. It is discussed the challenges and opportunities about CDM programs in the international legal system in which Kyoto Protocol is based, as well as its contribution to attain benefits to global climate system and quality of social life. (author)

  15. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  16. Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation composition and structure limit future potential carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Paul D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Berryman, Erin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

    2016-04-01

    The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) provides unique opportunities to understand how changing climate, land use, and disturbance affect ecosystem carbon balance. The GYE is one of the largest, most intact ecosystems in the United States. However, distinct management histories on National Park, National Forest, and private lands, elevational climate gradients, and variable fire activity, have created a mosaic of stand ages and forest types. It is uncertain how greenhouse forcing may alter the carbon balance of the GYE. Whereas increasing temperatures may enhance productivity and perpetuate the GYE as a carbon sink, climate-driven increases in fire frequency may offset productivity gains by limiting biomass accumulation. We investigated how changes in fire frequency and size may affect vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration potential in the GYE using the LANDIS-II dynamic landscape vegetation model. LANDIS-II provides sufficient spatial resolution to capture landscape-level variation in forest biomass and forest types (i.e. 90 × 90 m grid cells), but can integrate disturbance regimes and vegetation dynamics across the entire GYE (92,000 km2). We initiated our simulations with biomass and stand conditions that preceded the exceptional 1988 fire, when 16% of the GYE burned. We inferred the biomass, species abundances, and stand demographics of each model cell by combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data, and developed two fire regime scenarios from historical fire records. We developed a historic wildfire scenario with infrequent fires by excluding 1988 from our calibration of fire sizes and frequencies, and a future scenario with more frequent and larger fires by including 1988 in our calibrations. Fire frequency increased in all forest types in our future scenario, with a 152% increase in the annual forest area burned relative to observed area burned during recent decades. However, the changes in fire frequency varied among forest types, with

  17. Proactive systems for early warning of potential impacts of natural disasters on food safety: Climate-change-induced extreme events as case in point

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Noordam, M.Y.; Franz, E.; Willems, D.J.M.; Boxall, A.

    2013-01-01

    According to a recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of certain climate extremes is expected to increase under the influence of climate change. This review presents potential direct and indirect effects of such extremes as well as other severe weather and hydr

  18. Assessing climate impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Wohl, Ellen E.; Roger S. Pulwarty; Zhang, Jian Yun

    2000-01-01

    Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fu...

  19. GETTING INDIGENOUS PEOPLES AND MARGINALIZED POPULATIONS TO SHARE TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES TO WATER AND FOOD SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwasi Frimpong-Mensah

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The depth of traditional knowledge found in indigenous and marginalized communities dictates the extent to which their populations adapt to and mitigates climate change much as the intactness of biodiversity of the agro-ecosystems on which they depend does. Often, a lot more is done to ensure the intactness of biodiversity than the effective sharing of traditional knowledge in a quest to empower indigenous and marginalized populations to adapt to and mitigate climate change. But the latter is equally important as the former, and the two ought to go close together in empowering indigenous and marginalized populations. Nonetheless, the effective sharing of a dynamic commodity as traditional knowledge requires an all inclusive approach which involves consultation with all groups as the leaving out or the limited participation of any group could undermine the sharing process. However, there are issues that arise in ensuring an all-inclusive traditional knowledge sharing process. Issues may be viewed as challenges or opportunities to the effective sharing of traditional knowledge, and arise as a result of cultural, political, economic, legal, geographical, technical, historical, and institutional differences (subtle as they may be within/among indigenous and marginalized groups. Thus, this paper captures these challenges and opportunities that characterize the all-inclusive sharing of traditional knowledge within/among the different groups in indigenous and marginalized populations. And, recommends the best way forward by using competent actors who are self-motivated to bring all their competences to the facilitation of all-inclusive traditional knowledge sharing within/among the different groups for oneness of voice of indigenous and marginalized communities.

  20. Vegan Food Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Story" 5 Things to Know About Zika & Pregnancy Vegan Food Guide KidsHealth > For Parents > Vegan Food Guide ... a Vegan Diet Is Vegetarian the Same as Vegan? Lots of people limit their intake of meat — ...

  1. Ethical Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn

    aspects of ethical food consumption and, based on this, provide concrete policy inputs. The scope of the research is highly interdisciplinary, and includes perspectives from ethics and the social sciences on food consumption. Paper I: Can increased organic consumption mitigate climate changes? In the...... mitigation via decreased consumption of meat. Second, we investigate the extent to which the reduced consumption of meat by organic food consumers is motivated by climate change concerns. The questions are approached by analysing panel and survey data on organic food consumption. Paper II: The role of......So-called ‘ethical’ food products have spread across the industrialised world. These are products that are produced under labelling schemes with extraordinary attentiveness to issues such as farm animal welfare and environmental protection. Political decision-makers and other stakeholders in food...

  2. Derivatives Trading, Climate Science and Human Rights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haigh, Matthew

    between the élites of science and privately managed capital. Its outcomes have been disastrous in terms of climate management. Published rankings of corporations' climate-readiness bear tenuous linkages with scientific data. The linking of corporate revenues to corporate carbon emissions data has...... for capital flows associated with climate management. Media communications and decision making theories are used to interpret data drawn from participant observation and interviews with climate scientists, policy makers and institutional investors. Findings - The framework suggests a digital divide...... entrenched global North-South capital flows. Combined outcome is that access to food and clean water for nearly half the world's population remains chronically underfunded. Research limitations/implications - Descriptions of the conditions and mechanics of capital flows provide bases for research on the...

  3. Functional food acceptance in the food chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krutulyte, Rasa

    This thesis analyses consumer acceptance of functional foods and food manufacturers' decision to develop functional foods. The thesis sets up four key research questions: (1) How consumers accept functional foods enriched with omega-3? (2) How the intention of purchasing carrier ingredient...... another central issue of the paper. Results revealed that the general attitudes towards functional foods are related to the purchase intention with regard to functional foods described by their carrier/ingredient combinations. Consumers' attitudes towards specific carrier ingredient combinations define...... to develop functional foods? Research question 1 The health benefit of a functional food product is in fact limited if it is not eaten regularly and thus is not part of the healthy diet. For that reason it is highly relevant to look at the dietary change research when studying functional food acceptance...

  4. Food hygienics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book deals with food hygienics with eighteen chapters, which mention introduction on purpose of food hygienics, administration of food hygienics, food and microscopic organism, sanitary zoology, food poisoning, food poisoning by poisonous substance, chronic poisoning by microscopic organism, food and epidemic control , control of parasitic disease, milk hygiene meat hygiene, an egg and seafood hygiene, food deterioration and preservation, food additives, food container and field hygiene, food facilities hygiene, food hygiene and environmental pollution and food sanitation inspection.

  5. Integrating climate change into agricultural research for development in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Anderson, Simon

    2011-09-15

    African agriculture is already struggling to meet increasing demand for food. Climate change, which will alter agroecological conditions and looks set to arrest and decrease agricultural yields on the continent, will make it even harder to achieve food security. Boosting agricultural productivity in Africa, especially in the face of climate change, cannot be achieved without the benefits of cutting edge science. Advances in technology development and transfer, capacity building and policy research must be harnessed by developing and disseminating relevant strategies and technologies, and improving policy environments. The European Initiative for Agricultural Research for Development (EIARD), which facilitates and coordinates European policy and support for agricultural research for development, must integrate climate change into its activities and ensure that agricultural research for development and climate change adaptation are not disjointed. This demands a more strategic and coordinated approach from the initiative — one that reflects African realities, responds to African priorities for adaptation and development, and makes the best use of limited resources.

  6. World market for biofuels in the tension field between climate protection, food guarantee and lasting mobility; Weltmarkt fuer Biokraftstoffe - im Spannungsfeld zwischen Klimaschutz, Nahrungssicherheit und nachhaltiger Mobilitaet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knauf, G. [Forum Umwelt und Entwicklung, Bonn (Germany)

    2007-07-01

    Bioenergy is a very complex energy carrier, much more complex than photovoltaic or wind. Different applications, technologies and raw materials must be combined with different locations, climate zones, Know-how and demands. The necessity for a joint effort is very strong in order to meet the demand that we make on the energetic use of biomass. Bioenergy is an important element in an energy mix that meets future demands. It can only cover a small share in our energy demand, which is therefore even more important. Presently no altenative scenario exists that does not require bioenergy. Hence bioenergy can make a small but important contribution. Unfortunately bioenergy is only a limited resource, which achieves the highest efficiency in the combined heat and electric power field. The energy yield per hectar is significantly higher for these applications than the mobility field. As long as the automobile industry can not present an alternative to the classic combustion engine that is ready for series production biofuels are without alternative. (orig.)

  7. Limits to adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, Kirstin; Berkhout, Frans; Preston, Benjamin L.; Klein, Richard J. T.; Midgley, Guy; Shaw, M. Rebecca

    2013-04-01

    An actor-centered, risk-based approach to defining limits to social adaptation provides a useful analytic framing for identifying and anticipating these limits and informing debates over society's responses to climate change.

  8. Philosophy of climate science part II: modelling climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the second of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this second part about modelling climate change, the topics of climate modelling, confirmation of climate models, the limits of climate projections, uncertainty and finally model ensembles will be discussed.

  9. From climate-smart agriculture to climate-smart landscapes

    OpenAIRE

    Scherr Sara J; Shames Seth; Friedman Rachel

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background For agricultural systems to achieve climate-smart objectives, including improved food security and rural livelihoods as well as climate change adaptation and mitigation, they often need to be take a landscape approach; they must become ‘climate-smart landscapes’. Climate-smart landscapes operate on the principles of integrated landscape management, while explicitly incorporating adaptation and mitigation into their management objectives. Results An assessment of climate ch...

  10. Climate Strategic Soil Management

    OpenAIRE

    Rattan Lal

    2014-01-01

    The complex and strong link between soil degradation, climate change and food insecurity is a global challenge. Sustainable agricultural systems must be integral to any agenda to address climate change and variability, improve renewable fresh water supply and quality, restore degraded soils and ecosystems and advance food security. These challenges are being exacerbated by increasing population and decreasing per capita arable land area and renewable fresh water supply, the increasing freque...

  11. Food health law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edinger, Wieke Willemijn Huizing

    2014-01-01

    The EU has developed a detailed stringent set of food safety rules aimed at limiting or containing the risk that people experience negative health effects from the consumption of food. In doing so, the legislator has focused on food safety in a relatively narrow sense, not including the potential...

  12. How low can we go? An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK food system and the scope reduction by 2050. Report for the WWF and Food Climate Research Network

    OpenAIRE

    Audsley, Eric; Brander, M.; Chatterton, Julia C.; Murphy-Bokern,Donal; Webster, C.; Williams, Adrian G

    2010-01-01

    Summary The overall aim of this study was to develop a set of scenarios that explore how greenhouse gas emissions from the UK food system may be reduced by 70% by the year 2050. The work is focused on all emissions from the supply chains and systems, not just the emissions from the UK food chain that arise in the UK. The study comprises an audit of the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the UK food economy and an examination of the scope for substantial reductions of thes...

  13. Climate change adaptation: Uncovering constraints to the use of adaptation strategies among food crop farmers in South-west, Nigeria using principal component analysis (PCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moradeyo Adebanjo Otitoju

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the constraints to the use of climate variability/change adaptation strategies in South-west Nigeria. Multistage random technique was employed to select the location and the respondents. Descriptive statistics and principal component analysis (PCA were the analytical tools engaged in this study. The constraints to climate variability and change examined before did not use PCA but generalized factor analysis. Hence, there is need to examine these constraints extensively using PCA. Uncovering the constraints to the use of climate variability/change adaptation strategies among crop framers is important to give a realistic direction in the development of farmer-inclusive climate policies in Nigeria. The PCA result showed that the principal constraints that the farmers faced in climate change adaptation were public, institutional and labour constraint; land, neighbourhood norms and religious beliefs constraint; high cost of inputs, technological and information constraint; farm distance, access to climate information, off-farm job and credit constraint; and poor agricultural programmes and service delivery constraint. These findings pointed out the need for both the government and non-government organizations to intensify efforts on institutional, technological and farmers’ friendly land tenure and information systems as effective measures to guide inclusive climate change adaptation policies and development in South-west Nigeria.

  14. Climate change and forest resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacQueen, Duncan; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2006-10-15

    Significant global climate change is inevitable. Tree species have a limited capacity to tolerate climate change or migrate through natural or artificial means. We do not know enough about the comparative resilience of forest-based, agricultural, marine or fresh water ecosystems. But it is clear that biodiverse forest ecosystems are under threat. And the threat extends beyond forests themselves. An estimated 60 million indigenous people are heavily dependent on the world's rainforests. Some 350 million people live in or close to dense forests and rely on them for subsistence or income. A further 1.2 billion people in developing countries depend on trees on farm to generate food or cash.

  15. Why food in health security (FIHS)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlqvist, Mark L

    2009-01-01

    Health is intrinsic to human security (HumS) although it is somewhat anthropocentric and about our own psychosocial and biomedical status more than various external threats. The 1994 United Nations Development Program definition of HumS includes economic, food, environmental, personal, community and political security with freedom from fear and want. Environmental factors are critical for health security (HealS), especially with widespread socio-economic difficulty, and health systems less affordable or accessible. The nexus between nutritionally-related disorders and infectious disease is the most pervasive world health problem. Most if not all of the Millennium Development Goals are food-linked. Maternal nutrition has life-long health effects on the yet-to-be born child. The mix of essential nutrient deprivation and energy imbalance is rife across many societies. Food systems require deeper understanding and governance to overcome these food-related health risks which are matters of food security (FoodS). Nutritionally-related Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYS) are improving markedly in many parts of the world, along with poverty and hunger reduction and health system advances. But recent economic, energy, food, water, climate change and health crises along with conflict are limiting. It is time for international and regional understanding of how households and communities can collectively manage these threats in affordable and sustainable ways. There is untapped problem-solving capacity at the international local level if supported by combined food--health systems expertise, innovation, infrastructure and governance. Principles of equity and ethics must apply. The Food in Health Security (FIHS) roundtable aims to develop a Network to facilitate this process. PMID:19965335

  16. The Netherlands in a sustainable world. Poverty, climate and biodiversity. Second Sustainability Outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poverty reduction, climate change and biodiversity loss to be tackled as an integrated global problem. The world is too small to simultaneously produce enough food (including meat) for everyone and to deliver biofuels on a large enough scale to slow down climate change and maintain biodiversity. In this report sufficient options for fighting poverty, tackling climate change and limiting the loss of biodiversity are presented and discussed. The costs of these options can be limited to a few percent of GDP in 2040. However this will only be possible with coordinated international policies

  17. Food Poisoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Got Homework? Here's Help White House Lunch Recipes Food Poisoning KidsHealth > For Kids > Food Poisoning Print A ... find out how to avoid it. What Is Food Poisoning? Food poisoning comes from eating foods that ...

  18. Copepods in ice-covered seas—Distribution, adaptations to seasonally limited food, metabolism, growth patterns and life cycle strategies in polar seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conover, R. J.; Huntley, M.

    1991-07-01

    While a seasonal ice cover limits light penetration into both polar seas for up to ten months a year, its presence is not entirely negative. The mixed layer under sea ice will generally be shallower than in open water at the same latitude and season. Ice forms a substrate on which primary production can be concentrated, a condition which contrasts with the generally dilute nutritional conditions which prevail in the remaining ocean. The combination of a shallow, generally stable mixed layer with a close proximity to abundant food make the under-ice zone a suitable nursery for both pelagic and benthic species, an upside-down benthos for opportunistic substrate browsers, and a rich feeding environment for species often considered to be neritic in temperate environments. Where the ice cover is not continuous there may be a retreating ice edge that facilitates the seasonal production of phytoplankton primarily through increased stability from the melt water. Ice edge blooms similarly encourage secondary production by pelagic animals. Pseudocalanus acuspes, which may be the most abundant and productive copepod in north polar latitudes, initiates growth at the start of the "spring bloom" of epontic algae, reaching sexual maturity at breakup or slightly before. In the Southern Hemisphere, the small neritic copepod Paralabidocera antarctica and adult krill have been observed to utilize ice algae. Calanus hyperboreus breeds in the dark season at depth and its buoyant eggs, slowly developing on the ascent, reach the under-ice layer in April as nauplii ready to benefit from the primary production there. On the other hand, C. glacialis may initiate ontogenetic migrations and reproduction in response to increased erosion of ice algae due to solar warming and melting at the ice-water interface. While the same species in a phytoplankton bloom near the ice edge reproduces actively, those under still-consolidated ice nearby can have immature gonads. Diel migration and diel feeding

  19. Revisión teórica y limitaciones del concepto de desiertos alimentarios (Review and limitations of the concept of food deserts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramos-Truchero, Guadalupe

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Resumen: Este artículo es una primera introducción al concepto de desierto alimentario que surge a raíz de las desigualdades territoriales en torno a la presencia de comercios de alimentación en diferentes países. En primer lugar, se exponen las tesis de los desiertos alimentarios que vinculan el desabastecimiento de establecimientos comerciales a la clase social y los problemas nutricionales derivados de una escasa oferta alimentaria. A continuación, se exponen los trabajos que han contestado esta relación debido a la consideración de que existen otros factores determinantes en el acceso de la población a la alimentación saludable. Para terminar, se expone la metodología utilizada en ambas formas de investigar el acceso a la alimentación y se concluye señalando la complejidad que este concepto teórico tiene a la hora de ser aplicado sobre el terreno.// Abstract: This article is an early approach to the concept of food desert created by geographic inequalities regarding the presence of grocery stores in different countries. First, it exposes the theory of food deserts linking the lack of retail outlets to social class and nutritional problems arising from poor food supply. Later, the paper focuses on the investigations have answered this relationship because they believe that there are more factors that also determine how the population access to healthy food. Finally, the methodology used in both ways of research about food access. It concludes by noting the complexity of the theoretical concept when being applied.

  20. Climate policy coherence. Conflicts and synergies in policies influencing the production of forest bioenergy and food chains; Ilmastopolitiikan ja muun yhteiskuntapolitiikan koherenssi. Ristiriidat ja synergiat metsaebioenergiaan ja elintarvikeketjuihin vaikuttavissa politiikkatoimissa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kivimaa, P.; Huttunen, S.; Hilden, M.; Laturi, J.; Lehtonen, H.; Pohjola, J.; Uusivuori, J.; Virtanen, Y.

    2012-10-15

    To avoid policy conflicts and to enhance policy synergies, new knowledge on how policy instruments within and across different sectors affect climate change mitigation and adaptation is needed. An important question is how different policy sectors cohere with climate policy? In this study, climate policy coherence was examined with respect to policies related to forest bioenergy and food chains, from the perspectives of policy instruments and actors affected by the policies. The analysis was based on quantitative models, policy analysis, interviews and workshops. Clear shortcomings in both the recognition and acknowledgement of policy conflicts were identified. Regarding forest bioenergy this was manifested as overlapping targets for the utilization of forest resources without clear knowledge on how the climate policy aims are related to other aims for the use of forests. Local actors perceived coherence problems as rapidly changing instruments and as differences in the acknowledgement of different bioenergy chains. The quantitative models showed indirect and cross-sectoral effects. For example the increasing utilization of wood in energy production increases the prices and transportation costs of energy wood. This affects the relative price of wood against peat and, thus, the fuel choice of power plants. The market effects should be taken into account, for example, when introducing policy instruments tied to the prices of emission allowances. Increase in the price of pulpwood caused by energy use of wood is an example of a coherence problem between climate and industrial policies. Regarding food chains, nutrition recommendations are coherent with climate policy: Changing consumption to match the nutrition recommendations would reduce GHG emissions. On the other hand, actual consumption equivalent to the recommendations would not directly lead to significantly decreasing domestic agricultural production and emissions therein, but the effect would rather be global

  1. Food Crises and Gender Inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Bina Agarwal

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the current food crises, the projected effect of climate change, the vulnerabilities created by regional concentrations of food production, imports and exports, and the significant role of women as food producers, consumers and family food managers. Bridging productivity differentials between male and female farmers, by helping women overcome production constraints, would significantly increase agricultural output. This becomes an imperative, given the feminization of agri...

  2. Business strategies for climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies published in 2014, whether by IPCC scientists or New Climate Economy economists, showed that it is still possible to combat climate change without having to give up on economic growth and human development. This applies both to emerging countries which do not want to give up on their promised growth and to developed countries that fear having to surrender their lifestyles. Positioning ourselves on a greenhouse gas emission trajectory enabling us to limit global warming to 2 deg. C by the end of this century nonetheless requires a far-reaching and immediate response coordinated by all economic and political stakeholders. Companies know that they have a major role to play in dealing with the climate challenge. They are ready to change direction, as the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Kimoon urged them to do in September 2014. Companies of all sizes engaged in this process innovate and develop technological, organisational and financial solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the consequences of climate change. They are adjusting their strategies and economic models in response to these new challenges. It is these solutions that are presented in this publication 'Business strategies for climate'. All sectors of the economy are concerned; companies in all sectors can take a forward-looking approach to the changes caused by climate change and mobilise their resources to provide effective responses in line with the issues at stake. Global economic growth is resulting in a huge increase in the demand for mobility and transport. Companies are working on ways to improve vehicles, develop engines that are less fossil-fuel dependent, and on finding new ways for people to move around and to transport goods. The challenge is considerable: it will involve working with the growing need for transport while at the same time massively reducing the sector's greenhouse gas emissions. Cities are home to an ever-increasing number of people

  3. Safety Trap Analysis of NationaI Standard of MaximumResidue Limits for Pesticide in Food%我国农药残留国家标准的安全隐患探析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李太平

    2011-01-01

    [目的]农药残留国家标准GB 2763-2005是判别食品安全的重要依据,研究标准本身是否存在安全隐患,对保障食品安全具有重要现实意义.[方法]利用农药最大残留限量(MRLs)、日允许摄入量(ADI)与被测食品每日最大理论摄人量(TDI)三者数量关系,计算了GB 2763-2005的439项指标的TDI值,并与消费者每日实际摄人量(RDI)进行了比较.[结果]发现35项指标的食品有不同比例消费者的RDI超过TDI,占总指标的7.3%.[结论]我国现行农药残留国家标准存在较大安全隐患.%[Aims] The national standard of maximum residue limits for pesticides in food GB 2763-2005 is the key base of food safety risk identification. Discussing the dependability of pesticide residue standards is very important for controlling food safety risk. [Methods] The national standard's theory daily intake (TDI) related with foods of 439 residue indexes of GB 2763-2005 was calculated with the quantity relation between MRLs, ADI and TDI, and compared with the customer's real daily intake (RDI) related with foods. [Results] There were 35 residue indexes related with foods which TDI were over their RDI with different proportion customers, accounted for 7.3% of total indexes in it. [Conclusions] It showed that there is a big potential safety risk in the present national standard of pesticide residue.

  4. Enabling food security by verifying agricultural carbon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahiluoto, H; Smith, P; Moran, D;

    2014-01-01

    Rewarding smallholders for sequestering carbon in agricultural land can improve food security while mitigating climate change. Verification of carbon offsets in food-insecure regions is possible and achievable through rigorously controlled monitoring...

  5. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Food and Nutrition Food Safety Forestry Laws and Regulations Marketing and Trade Organic Agriculture Outreach Plant Health ... Hubs, visit the USDA Climate Hubs Webpage . Climate Solutions at USDA USDA is taking steps to create ...

  6. Climate, greenhouse effect, energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The book has sections on the sun as energy source, the earth climate and it's changes and factors influencing this, the greenhouse effect on earth and other planets, greenhouse gases and aerosols and their properties and importance, historic climate and paleoclimate, climatic models and their uses and limitations, future climate, consequences of climatic changes, uncertainties regarding the climate and measures for reducing the greenhouse effect. Finally there are sections on energy and energy resources, the use, sources such as fossil fuels, nuclear power, renewable resources, heat pumps, energy storage and environmental aspects and the earth magnetic field is briefly surveyed

  7. Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

    2012-02-15

    The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human

  8. Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Conflicts between adapting to climate change, food security and reducing emissions. • Climate change likely to limit wheat production in the southern hemisphere. • Climate change yield benefits marginally increase emissions per unit of product. • Improved yield will result in higher total production emissions. • Production-based inventories discourage an increase in production. - Abstract: Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

  9. A Framework for Effective Use of Hydroclimate Models in Climate-Change Adaptation Planning for Managed Habitats with Limited Hydrologic Response Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esralew, Rachel A.; Flint, Lorraine; Thorne, James H.; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Alan

    2016-07-01

    Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981-2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule's Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3-100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10-20 to 40-60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

  10. Attributing illness to food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batz, M. B.; Doyle, M. P.; Morris, J. G.;

    2005-01-01

    the Food Attribution Data Workshop in October 2003 to discuss the virtues and limitations of these approaches and to identify future options for collecting food attribution data in the United States. We summarize workshop discussions and identify challenges that affect progress in this critical......Identification and prioritization of effective food safety interventions require an understanding of the relationship between food and pathogen from farm to consumption. Critical to this cause is food attribution, the capacity to attribute cases of foodborne disease to the food vehicle or other...... source responsible for illness. A wide variety of food attribution approaches and data are used around the world including the analysis of outbreak data, case-control studies, microbial subtyping and source tracking methods, and expert judgment, among others. The Food Safety Research Consortium sponsored...

  11. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts; decoupling agriculture' s N2O and CH4 emissions from population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.

  12. Functional Food and Organic Food are Competing Rather than Supporting Concepts in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Susanne Bügel; Angelika Ploeger; Aneta Załęcka; Johannes Kahl; Machteld Huber

    2012-01-01

    A review of recent literature pertaining to organic and functional food was conducted according its conceptual background. Functional and organic food both belong to fast growing segments of the European food market. Both are food according to the European food regulations, but organic food is further regulated by the European regulation for organic agriculture and food production. This regulation restricts the number of food additives and limits substantial changes in the food. This may caus...

  13. Food Allergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food allergy is an abnormal response to a food triggered by your body's immune system. In adults, the foods ... a severe reaction called anaphylaxis. Symptoms of food allergy include Itching or swelling in your mouth Vomiting, ...

  14. Food Allergies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Got Homework? Here's Help White House Lunch Recipes Food Allergies KidsHealth > For Kids > Food Allergies Print A ... cow's milk eggs soy wheat What Is a Food Allergy? Food allergies happen when the immune system ...

  15. Food safety information and food demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smed, Sinne; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2005-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze how news about food-related health risks affects consumers’ demands for safe food products. Design/methodology/approach – By identifying structural breaks in an econometrically estimated demand model, news with permanent impact on demand is...... induces a permanent increase in the demand for pasteurized eggs, while more moderate negative news influences demand temporarily and to a lesser extent. There is, however, considerable variation in the response to food safety news across socio-demographic groups of consumers. Research limitations....../implications – The study has focused on the demand for raw eggs. Responses to food safety news may differ across foods. Furthermore, the study abstracts from possible cross-effects of safety news concerning other foods. Practical implications – The findings may be utilized for optimization of the timing and...

  16. Will the Three Gorges Dam affect the underwater light climate of Vallisneria spiralis L. and food habitat of Siberian crane in Poyang Lake?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wu, G.; Leeuw, de J.; Skidmore, A.K.; Prins, H.H.T.; Best, E.P.H.; Liu, Y.

    2009-01-01

    Almost 95% of the entire population of the Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus) winter in Poyang Lake, China, where they forage on the tubers of the submerged aquatic macrophyte Vallisneria spiralis. The Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River may possibly affect this food source of the Siberian crane b

  17. Advantages and limits to the fermentation of easily-degradable industrial and food wastes in sewage treatment works; Vorteile und Grenzen der Vergaerung von leicht abbaubaren Industrie- und Lebensmittelabfaellen in Abwasserreinigungsanlagen. Vergleich zu landwirtschaftlichen Anlagen - Schlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bachmann, N.; Wellinger, A. [Nova Energie GmbH, Aadorf (Switzerland); Bachmann, N. [EREP SA, Aclens (Switzerland)

    2009-12-15

    This final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the advantages and limits that apply to the fermentation of industrial and food wastes in sewage treatment facilities in comparison to agricultural installations. For this ecological review, a material-flow analysis was made which permitted the nutrient loss to be quantified. The report presents data on the energy and carbon dioxide balances for the method and also looks at the method from an economical point of view. Co-fermentation in the wastewater treatment plant in Berne, Switzerland, and in agricultural plant are examined.

  18. Overcoming Food Security Challenges within an Energy/Water/Food Nexus (EWFN Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria De Laurentiis

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenge of feeding nine billion people by 2050, in a context of constrained resources and growing environmental pressures posed by current food production methods on one side, and changing lifestyles and consequent shifts in dietary patterns on the other, exacerbated by the effects of climate change, has been defined as one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. The first step to achieve food security is to find a balance between the growing demand for food, and the limited production capacity. In order to do this three main pathways have been identified: employing sustainable production methods in agriculture, changing diets, and reducing waste in all stages of the food chain. The application of an energy, water and food nexus (EWFN approach, which takes into account the interactions and connections between these three resources, and the synergies and trade-offs that arise from the way they are managed, is a prerequisite for the correct application of these pathways. This work discusses how Life Cycle Assessment (LCA might be applicable for creating the evidence-base to foster such desired shifts in food production and consumption patterns.

  19. Seven Food System Metrics of Sustainable Nutrition Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Gustafson

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability considerations have been absent from most food security assessments conducted to date, despite the tremendous economic, environmental, and social implications of meeting accelerating food demand in the face of water shortages and climate change. In addition, previous food security work has generally focused only on achieving adequate calories, rather than addressing dietary diversity and micronutrient adequacy, both of which are critical to maintaining a healthy overall nutritional status. In response to the limitations of previous assessments, a new methodology is proposed here based on the concept of “sustainable nutrition security” (SNS. This novel assessment methodology is intended to remedy both kinds of deficiencies in the previous work by defining seven metrics, each based on a combination of multiple indicators, for use in characterizing sustainable nutrition outcomes of food systems: (1 food nutrient adequacy; (2 ecosystem stability; (3 food affordability and availability; (4 sociocultural wellbeing; (5 food safety; (6 resilience; and (7 waste and loss reduction. Each of the metrics comprises multiple indicators that are combined to derive an overall score (0–100. A novel SNS assessment methodology based on these metrics can be deployed by decision-makers and investors to set meaningful goals, track progress, and evaluate the potential impact of food system interventions intended to improve sustainability and human nutrition outcomes.

  20. Innovation in small food firms

    OpenAIRE

    Avermaete, Tessa

    2012-01-01

    Internationalisation of the world food market, structural changes in the food chain, changing consumption patterns and the strengthening of food regulation lie on the basis of the fast developments in the food and drink industry. Facing increased competition, small food firms are generally limited in exploiting economies of scale. Alternatively, they are more likely to seek for strategies that are based on the introduction of new products, optimising processing, the reorganisation of manageme...

  1. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  2. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

  3. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  4. Food security and sustainable intensification

    OpenAIRE

    H Charles J Godfray; Garnett, Tara

    2014-01-01

    The coming decades are likely to see increasing pressures on the global food system, both on the demand side from increasing population and per capita consumption, and on the supply side from greater competition for inputs and from climate change. This paper argues that the magnitude of the challenge is such that action is needed throughout the food system, on moderating demand, reducing waste, improving governance and producing more food. It discusses in detail the last component, arguing th...

  5. Food commodities from microalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Draaisma, R.B.; Wijffels, R.H.; Slegers, P.M.; Brentner, L.B.; Roy, A.; Barbosa, M.J.

    2013-01-01

    The prospect of sustainable production of food ingredients from photoautotrophic microalgae was reviewed. Clearly, there is scope for microalgal oils to replace functions of major vegetable oils, and in addition to deliver health benefits to food products. Furthermore, with a limited production surf

  6. Food allergy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngshin Han

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Food allergy is an important public health problem affecting 5% of infants and children in Korea. Food allergy is defined as an immune response triggered by food proteins. Food allergy is highly associated with atopic dermatitis and is one of the most common triggers of potentially fatal anaphylaxis in the community. Sensitization to food allergens can occur in the gastrointestinal tract (class 1 food allergy or as a consequence of cross reactivity to structurally homologous inhalant allergens (class 2 food allergy. Allergenicity of food is largely determined by structural aspects, including cross-reactivity and reduced or enhanced allergenicity with cooking that convey allergenic characteristics to food. Management of food allergy currently focuses on dietary avoidance of the offending foods, prompt recognition and treatment of allergic reactions, and nutritional support. This review includes definitions and examines the prevalence and management of food allergies and the characteristics of food allergens.

  7. A framework for evaluating the influence of climate, dispersal limitation, and biotic interactions using fossil pollen associations across the late Quaternary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blois, Jessica L.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Behrensmeyer, Anna K.;

    2014-01-01

    Environmental conditions, dispersal lags, and interactions among species are major factors structuring communities through time and across space. Ecologists have emphasized the importance of biotic interactions in determining local patterns of species association. In contrast, abiotic limits......, dispersal limitation, and historical factors have commonly been invoked to explain community structure patterns at larger spatiotemporal scales, such as the appearance of late Pleistocene no-analog communities or latitudinal gradients of species richness in both modern and fossil assemblages. Quantifying...

  8. 即食凉拌食品中微生物污染情况及大肠菌群限量的调查分析%Investigation of Instant Cold Foods and Microbial Contamination of Coliform Limit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李梓娴; 速存芬; 陈磊; 刘辉光

    2015-01-01

    Objective The purpose of the microbial contamination of food ready to eat salad investigation and analysis, to develop a reliable instant cold food microbiological limits. Methods A "People's Republic of China national standards of food hygiene mi-crobiological testing methods" and the national monitoring network and other food-borne illness as a monitoring program, instant cold foods in the restrants and supermarbets of Qujing for microbial contamination were detected From May to september 2014. The main test items include coliform bacteria, yeasts, Staphylococcus aureus, Shigella, Salmonella, hemolytic streptococcus, E. coli cause diarrhea, Listeria monocytogenes, and the total number of colonies. Results 80 parts of instant salad product samples exam-ined 31 retail processing unit processing the target pathogen detection does not appear. The positive rate of coliform detection pro-cess is about 72.25%, the main contaminating bacteria. Conclusion Coliforms in instant cold dishes as the main pollution flora, for a limited countries such flora as soon as possible as soon as possible health and safety standards, recommended instant cold foods coliform limit should be less than 100 MPN/g.%目的:对即食凉拌食品的微生物污染状况进行调查分析,为即食凉拌食品制定出可靠的微生物限量标准。方法采用《中华人民共和国国家标准食品卫生微生物学检验方法》以及国家食源性疾病监测网等作为监测方案,2014年5要9月份曲靖市管辖区部分饭店超市的即食凉拌食品中微生物污染情况进行检测。主要检测项目包括大肠菌群、酵母菌、金黄色葡萄球菌、志贺菌、沙门菌、溶血性链球菌、致泻性大肠埃希菌、单增李斯特菌以及菌落总数。结果进行检查的31家零售加工单位加工生产的80份即食凉拌品样品中未出现目标致病菌的检出。检测过程中大肠菌群的阳性率约为72.25%,为主要污染菌。结论在

  9. Terminologie alimentaire (Food Terminology).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, Jean-Francois

    1980-01-01

    Translations and descriptions are given in French for a number of English food terms: convenience foods, fast foods, fast foods industry, fast foods restaurant, frozen foods, deep frozen foods, fast frozen foods, quick frozen foods, dry frozen foods. (MSE)

  10. A review on food safety and food hygiene studies in Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Ababio, P. F.; Lovatt, P.

    2015-01-01

    Food safety and hygiene in Ghana was studied using desk top literature review. Food research was highly concentrated in the capital city of the country and most research focus were on commercial food operations specifically street foods and microbiological safety with limited information from institutional catering and other forms of food hazards. The media currently serves as the main source for reporting of food borne diseases. Food establishments and other sources contributing to food born...

  11. Bringing Food Home : a case study analysis of carbon emissions and energy use for transporting food in local food networks

    OpenAIRE

    Cabell, Joshua Fenton

    2013-01-01

    The global food system contributes up to 30% of anthropogenic GHG emissions, nearly a quarter of which comes from transporting and distributing food. A number of reports have pointed to the increase in “food miles” as one factor contributing to the food system’s climate impact. The local food movement arose as a challenge to this trend and today eating locally is now popular among eco-conscious consumers. However, numerous studies argue that measuring food’s climate impact is not as simple as...

  12. Food Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are four basic steps to food safety at home: Clean - always wash your fruits and vegetables, hands, counters, and cooking utensils. Separate - keep raw foods to themselves. Germs can spread from one food ...

  13. Food additives

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/002435.htm Food additives To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Food additives are substances that become part of a food ...

  14. Food Allergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food allergy is an abnormal response to a food triggered by your body's immune system. In adults, the ... cause a severe reaction called anaphylaxis. Symptoms of food allergy include Itching or swelling in your mouth Vomiting, ...

  15. Food Labels

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... How Can I Help a Friend Who Cuts? Food Labels KidsHealth > For Teens > Food Labels Print A ... have at least 95% organic ingredients. continue Making Food Labels Work for You The first step in ...

  16. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  17. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  18. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-11-29

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

  19. Food security

    OpenAIRE

    Dorina Ardelean

    2011-01-01

    The assurance of food security at the individual level doesn’t implicitly provide for the one at family level as the concepts of hunger, malnutrition and food insecurity are the steps of the same process of access restricted to a sufficient supply of food. In order to achieve food security at the individual level the following is necessary: ensuring food availability (production, reserve stocks); redistribution of food availability within the country or out through internationa...

  20. Energy security for India: Biofuels, energy efficiency and food productivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The emergence of biofuel as a renewable energy source offers opportunities for significant climate change mitigation and greater energy independence to many countries. At the same time, biofuel represents the possibility of substitution between energy and food. For developing countries like India, which imports over 75% of its crude oil, fossil fuels pose two risks—global warming pollution and long-term risk that oil prices will undermine real living standards. This paper examines India's options for managing energy price risk in three ways: biofuel development, energy efficiency promotion, and food productivity improvements. Our salient results suggest that biodiesel shows promise as a transport fuel substitute that can be produced in ways that fully utilize marginal agricultural resources and hence promote rural livelihoods. First-generation bioethanol, by contrast, appears to have a limited ability to offset the impacts of oil price hikes. Combining the biodiesel expansion policy with energy efficiency improvements and food productivity increases proved to be a more effective strategy to enhance both energy and food security, help mitigate climate change, and cushion the economy against oil price shocks. - Highlights: • We investigate the role of biofuels in India applying a CGE model. • Biodiesel enhances energy security and improve rural livelihoods. • Sugarcane ethanol does not show positive impact on the economy. • Biodiesel and energy efficiency improvements together provide better results. • Food productivity further enhances biodiesel, and energy efficiency impacts

  1. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  2. 21 CFR 172.892 - Food starch-modified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2010-04-01 2009-04-01 true Food starch-modified. 172.892 Section 172.892 Food... Multipurpose Additives § 172.892 Food starch-modified. Food starch-modified as described in this section may be... limitation prescribed. To insure safe use of the food starch-modified, the label of the food...

  3. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  4. Ground water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food secu¬rity will probably intensify under climate chan...

  5. Research on current situation and establishing methods of pesticide maximum residue limits in food%食品中农药最大残留限量的现状及制定方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨艳红; 姜兆兴; 赵敏

    2015-01-01

    食品中农药的最大残留限量(MRLs)是保障食品质量安全的重要立法依据,也是指导食品和农产品等生产的关键技术指标。MRLs的制定方法不仅影响农产品行业的持续发展,而且还对提高我国农产品行业的国际竞争力起到积极作用。本文简要介绍目前国内外 MRLs 标准的现状、涉及农药的种类以及制定农药最大残留限量的依据,概述了基于田间实验数据制定最大残留限量的方法,并且比较了国际上欧盟(EU)、北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)成员国、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)及农药残留联席会议(JMPR)的限量制定方案。%Pesticide maximum residue limit is a critical legislative basis for food safety and a key technical indicator to instruct food and agro-products. The establishing methods for MRLs not only influence the sustainable development of agricultural industry, but also play an actively role on the improvement of international competitiveness of Chinese agricultural industry. The current situation and principles employed to establish maximum residue limits were briefly introduced in this paper. The methods derived from field trials were summarized for setting MRLs. Meanwhile, the calculation methods proposed by European Union (EU), members of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Joint Meeting of Pesticide Residues (JMPR) were compared.

  6. A dissenting view on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

  7. Ground water and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Richard G; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the...

  8. Food economics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henning Otte

    and issues and such as food security, quality, obesity and health are ever important factors. This book describes the link between food markets and food companies from a theoretical and a business economics perspective. The relationships, trends and impacts on the international food market are presented...

  9. Food irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper discusses the need for effective and efficient technologies in improving the food handling system. It defines the basic premises for the development of food handling. The application of food irradiation technology is briefly discussed. The paper points out key considerations for the adoption of food irradiation technology in the ASEAN region (author)

  10. Agriculture on the Brink: Climate Change, Labor and Smallholder Farming in Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William G. Moseley

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Botswana is a semi-arid, middle-income African country that imports 90 percent of its food. Despite its relative prosperity, Botswana also suffers from one of the highest measures of income inequality in the world, persistent poverty, and relatively high levels of food insecurity. The objective of this paper is to explore how political economy, climate change and livelihood dynamics are synergistically impacting household food security. The major finding is that the marginalization of smallholder farming in Botswana has as much or more to do with domestic, regional and international political economy as it does with climate change. As such, international efforts to support climate change adaptation in Botswana will have a limited effect on smallholder farming livelihoods and rural food security unless such efforts take account of political economic constraints. Effective support must be based on a grounded understanding of the real drivers of marginalization and food insecurity. One initiative that merits further exploration is the government’s backyard gardening initiative, which could be viewed as a pro-poor climate adaptation strategy. The findings of this paper are based on semi-structured interviews with policymakers and surveys with urban, peri-urban and rural households undertaken in 2012 and 2015.

  11. An uncertain climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, E.A.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Production of food contributes to climate change and other forms of environmental impact. Input data used in environmental impact assessment models, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and nutrient balance (NB) analysis, may vary due to seasonal changes, geographical condi

  12. Beyond local climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; Lambin, Eric F.

    2014-01-01

    At the household level, nonfarm activities are thought to help rural poor households buffer against agricultural risks related to local climate variability by providing them with cash to buy food in the case of harvest shortfalls. Over the recent decades, households in rural Sub-Sahara have been...

  13. Food Supply and Food Safety Issues in China

    OpenAIRE

    Lam, Hon-Ming; Remais, Justin; Fung, Ming-Chiu; Xu, Liqing; Sun, Samuel Sai-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Food supply and food safety are major global public health issues, and are particularly important in heavily populated countries such as China. Rapid industrialisation and modernisation in China are having profound effects on food supply and food safety. In this Review, we identified important factors limiting agricultural production in China, including conversion of agricultural land to other uses, freshwater deficits, and soil quality issues. Additionally, increased demand for some agricult...

  14. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  16. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts: linking N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture to population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present. These are mainly developing countries and countries in transition, the so-called non-Annex I countries of the UNFCCC. However, intensification of agricultural production systems is currently closely linked to high emissions of greenhouse gases notably nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In this paper the relations between population growth, agricultural development and emissions of N2O and CH4 were assessed for 10 non-Annex I countries, viz. China, India, Vietnam, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Mongolia, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa. We combined FAO data on agricultural production levels, CENSUS data on population statistics and EDGAR data on N2O and CH4 emissions. The projected trends in agricultural production indicate that emissions of N2O and CH4 are expected to increase rapidly in the coming years and will level off from 2040 onwards. The results confirm the positive relation between population increase and increased emissions from agricultural activities for most countries. However, for some countries (South Africa, China and Mexico) this relation was weak or absent. Although numerous factors (e.g. changes in international trade) may have scattered the relation and we were unable to explain this decoupling, it suggests that population growth can be possible without additional emissions. The variation between the different countries and farming systems is however large and mitigation measures at farm-level should be tailored to the wide diversity in environmental conditions, regional customs and farming systems.

  17. Special Foods

    OpenAIRE

    Bright-See, Elizabeth

    1984-01-01

    Special foods include all foods that have been modified to meet either a real or perceived health need. They include enriched foods which are so readily available that they are generally no longer considered special foods. More recently, calorie-reduced, carbohydrate-reduced, low-fat, high fiber and other types of modified foods have been introduced to the market in response to several sets of dietary guidelines which recommend specific dietary changes for the general public. More specialized...

  18. Food irradiation 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Food irradiation principles; its main applications, advantages and limitations; wholesomeness, present activities at Ezeiza Atomic Centre; research coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency; capacity building; and some aspects on national and international regulations, standards and commercialization are briefly described. At present 56 countries authorize the consumption of varied irradiated foods; trade is performed in 32 countries, with about 200 irradiation facilities. Argentina pioneered nuclear energy knowledge and applications in Latin America, food irradiation included. A steady growth of food industrial volumes treated in two gamma facilities can be observed. Food industry and producers show interest towards new facilities construction. However, a 15 years standstill in incorporating new approvals in the Argentine Alimentary Code, in spite of consecutive request performed either by CNEA or some food industries restricts, a wider industrial implementation, which constitute a drawback to future regional commercialization in areas such as MERCOSUR, where Brazil since 2000 freely authorize food irradiation. Besides, important chances in international trade with developed countries will be missed, like the high fresh fruits and vegetables requirements United States has in counter-season, leading to convenient sale prices. The Argentine food irradiation facilities have been designed and built in the country. Argentina produces Cobalt-60. These capacities, unusual in the world and particularly in Latin America, should be protected and enhanced. Being the irradiation facilities scarce and concentrated nearby Buenos Aires city, the possibilities of commercial application and even research and development are strongly limited for most of the country regions. (author)

  19. Climate friendly dietary guidelines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Ellen; Mogensen, Lisbeth; Thorsen, Anne Vibeke;

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate how the present Danish diet could be changed in a climate friendly direction that follows the recommendations of a healthy diet. The carbon footprint (CF) of an average Danish diet was calculated and compared to CF of a recommended healthy diet by 1......) modifying the average diet according to the Danish food based dietary guidelines, 2) and adjusting to ensure an iso-energy content and a nutrient content according to the Nordic Nutrient Recommendations. Afterwards the healthy diet were changed further to reduce CF. CF from the diet was reduced by 4......%, if the healthy diet was eaten instead of the average current diet. However, if the diet was climate optimized by choosing foods with a low CF within the food groups; meat, vegetables and fruit, CF of this diet may be reduced by 23 % compared to CF of the average diet....

  20. Neighborhood fast food availability and fast food consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oexle, Nathalie; Barnes, Timothy L; Blake, Christine E; Bell, Bethany A; Liese, Angela D

    2015-09-01

    Recent nutritional and public health research has focused on how the availability of various types of food in a person's immediate area or neighborhood influences his or her food choices and eating habits. It has been theorized that people living in areas with a wealth of unhealthy fast-food options may show higher levels of fast-food consumption, a factor that often coincides with being overweight or obese. However, measuring food availability in a particular area is difficult to achieve consistently: there may be differences in the strict physical locations of food options as compared to how individuals perceive their personal food availability, and various studies may use either one or both of these measures. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between weekly fast-food consumption and both a person's perceived availability of fast-food and an objective measure of fast-food presence - Geographic Information Systems (GIS) - within that person's neighborhood. A randomly selected population-based sample of eight counties in South Carolina was used to conduct a cross-sectional telephone survey assessing self-report fast-food consumption and perceived availability of fast food. GIS was used to determine the actual number of fast-food outlets within each participant's neighborhood. Using multinomial logistic regression analyses, we found that neither perceived availability nor GIS-based presence of fast-food was significantly associated with weekly fast-food consumption. Our findings indicate that availability might not be the dominant factor influencing fast-food consumption. We recommend using subjective availability measures and considering individual characteristics that could influence both perceived availability of fast food and its impact on fast-food consumption. If replicated, our findings suggest that interventions aimed at reducing fast-food consumption by limiting neighborhood fast-food availability might not be completely effective. PMID