WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate food limitation

  1. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  2. How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Lucht, W.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.; Smith, P.

    2005-08-01

    In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.

  3. How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE. LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.

  4. Food irradiation, profits and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The utility of the irradiation to overcome diverse problems of lost nutritious, it has been demonstrated in multiple investigation works, that its have confirmed the value and the inoculation of the irradiated foods. The quantity of energy applied to each food, is in function of the wanted effect. In this document a guide with respect to the practical application and the utility of the irradiation process in different foods, as well as the suggested dose average is shown. Among the limitations of the use of this technology, its are the costs and not being able to apply it to some fresh foods. (Author)

  5. Food insecurity: limitations of emergency food resources for our patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gany, Francesca; Bari, Sehrish; Crist, Michael; Moran, Alyssa; Rastogi, Natasha; Leng, Jennifer

    2013-06-01

    Rates of food insecurity are high among medically underserved patients. We analyzed food pantry responsiveness to the needs of medically ill cancer patients in New York City with the intent ofidentifying barriers to available food resources. Our data, collected from 60 pantries, suggest that the emergency food system is currently unable to accommodate patient needs. Accessibility issues include restricted service hours and documentation requirements. Food services were limited in quantity of food provided and the number of nutritious, palatable options. Additional emergency food resources and long-term approaches that provide ongoing food support to patients throughout their treatment period are needed.

  6. Food Insecurity: Limitations of Emergency Food Resources for Our Patients

    OpenAIRE

    Gany, Francesca; Bari, Sehrish; Crist, Michael; Moran, Alyssa; Rastogi, Natasha; Leng, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    Rates of food insecurity are high among medically underserved patients. We analyzed food pantry responsiveness to the needs of medically ill cancer patients in New York City with the intent ofidentifying barriers to available food resources. Our data, collected from 60 pantries, suggest that the emergency food system is currently unable to accommodate patient needs. Accessibility issues include restricted service hours and documentation requirements. Food services were limited in quantity of ...

  7. Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security

    OpenAIRE

    Margaret C. Nelson; Ingram, Scott E.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Streeter, Richard; Matthew A. Peeples; McGovern, Thomas H.; Hegmon, Michelle; Arneborg, Jette; Keith W. Kintigh; Brewington, Seth; Spielmann, Katherine A.; Simpson, Ian A; Strawhacker, Colleen; Comeau, Laura E. L.; Torvinen, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Climate-induced disasters are impacting human well-being in ever-increasing ways. Disaster research and management recognize and emphasize the need to reduce vulnerabilities, although extant policy is not in line with this realization. This paper assesses the extent to which vulnerability to food shortage, as a result of social, demographic, and resource conditions at times of climatic challenge, correlates with subsequent declines in social and food security. Extreme climate challenges are i...

  8. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  9. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  10. Global food security under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidhuber, J.; Tubiello, F.N.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed s...

  11. Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Margaret C; Ingram, Scott E; Dugmore, Andrew J; Streeter, Richard; Peeples, Matthew A; McGovern, Thomas H; Hegmon, Michelle; Arneborg, Jette; Kintigh, Keith W; Brewington, Seth; Spielmann, Katherine A; Simpson, Ian A; Strawhacker, Colleen; Comeau, Laura E L; Torvinen, Andrea; Madsen, Christian K; Hambrecht, George; Smiarowski, Konrad

    2016-01-12

    This paper identifies rare climate challenges in the long-term history of seven areas, three in the subpolar North Atlantic Islands and four in the arid-to-semiarid deserts of the US Southwest. For each case, the vulnerability to food shortage before the climate challenge is quantified based on eight variables encompassing both environmental and social domains. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between the "weight" of vulnerability before a climate challenge and the nature of social change and food security following a challenge. The outcome of this work is directly applicable to debates about disaster management policy.

  12. Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Margaret C.; Ingram, Scott E.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Streeter, Richard; Peeples, Matthew A.; McGovern, Thomas H.; Hegmon, Michelle; Arneborg, Jette; Brewington, Seth; Spielmann, Katherine A.; Simpson, Ian A.; Strawhacker, Colleen; Comeau, Laura E. L.; Torvinen, Andrea; Madsen, Christian K.; Hambrecht, George; Smiarowski, Konrad

    2016-01-01

    This paper identifies rare climate challenges in the long-term history of seven areas, three in the subpolar North Atlantic Islands and four in the arid-to-semiarid deserts of the US Southwest. For each case, the vulnerability to food shortage before the climate challenge is quantified based on eight variables encompassing both environmental and social domains. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between the “weight” of vulnerability before a climate challenge and the nature of social change and food security following a challenge. The outcome of this work is directly applicable to debates about disaster management policy. PMID:26712017

  13. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  14. Food Surplus and Its Climate Burdens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiç, Ceren; Pradhan, Prajal; Rybski, Diego; Kropp, Jürgen P

    2016-04-19

    Avoiding food loss and waste may counteract the increasing food demand and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector. This is crucial because of limited options available to increase food production. In the year 2010, food availability was 20% higher than was required on a global scale. Thus, a more sustainable food production and adjusted consumption would have positive environmental effects. This study provides a systematic approach to estimate consumer level food waste on a country scale and globally, based on food availability and requirements. The food requirement estimation considers demographic development, body weights, and physical activity levels. Surplus between food availability and requirements of a given country is considered as food waste. The global food requirement changed from 2,300 kcal/cap/day to 2,400 kcal/cap/day during the last 50 years, while food surplus grew from 310 kcal/cap/day to 510 kcal/cap/day. Similarly, GHG emissions related to the food surplus increased from 130 Mt CO2eq/yr to 530 Mt CO2eq/yr, an increase of more than 300%. Moreover, the global food surplus may increase up to 850 kcal/cap/day, while the total food requirement will increase only by 2%-20% by 2050. Consequently, GHG emissions associated with the food waste may also increase tremendously to 1.9-2.5 Gt CO2eq/yr. PMID:27054575

  15. Climate smartness in agro-food standards

    OpenAIRE

    Ingram, V.J.; Bezlepkina, I.; Verburg, R.W.

    2013-01-01

    This report contributes to the BO-10-020-003 project 'Aligning good agricultural practices and climate smart agriculture' commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and led by Plant Research International. The aim of this memorandum is to provide insight into the question who determines what is'good' in terms of good agricultural practices (GAP) of agri-food standards. It also assesses the extent towhich climate-smart practices are currently incorporated into good agricultural pra...

  16. Food security in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, Roger; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James

    2012-01-01

    By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.

  17. Food Cravings Consume Limited Cognitive Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika; Grigg, Megan

    2008-01-01

    Using Tiffany's (1990) cognitive model of drug use and craving as a theoretical basis, the present experiments investigated whether cravings for food expend limited cognitive resources. Cognitive performance was assessed by simple reaction time (Experiment 1) and an established measure of working memory capacity, the operation span task…

  18. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

  19. Climate Change Dynamics and Imperatives for Food Security in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olumide D. Onafeso

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Decadal variability in African rainfall is projected from General Circulation Models (GCMs to continue under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. Effects on rain intensity, spatio-temporal variability of growing seasons, flooding, drought, and land-use change impose feedbacks at regional-local scales. Yet, empirical knowledge of associated impacts on crop yield is limited; thus, we examined the imperatives for food security in Nigeria. Bivariate correlation and multiple regression suggests impending drought in the northern region where livestock farming is predominant. Relative contributions of climate independent variables in determining crop yield by backward selection procedures with stepwise approach indexed the impacts of annual climate variability by a parameter computed as annual yield minus mean annual yield divided by the standard deviation. Results show Z-distribution approximately 5 to + 5, when 3 indicate impacts significant at 95% confidence levels. In conclusion, we established the interwoven relationship between climatic change and food security.

  20. Limited food induces nepotism in drywood termites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korb, Judith

    2006-09-22

    The evolution of cooperation and altruistic behaviour where individuals forego their own reproduction to help others reproduce can be explained by kin selection. Depending on the costs and benefits provided, altruism can be evolutionarily favoured if it is directed at close relatives. A considerable body of data supports the role of relatedness as a key determinant of cooperation and conflict within societies. However, the role of ecological factors and, in particular, how these costs and benefits interact with relatedness remains poorly understood. By studying 16 colonies, here I show that in a drywood termite ecological factors determine the importance of relatedness. In colonies with limited food supply, nestmates restrict cooperative interactions mainly to close relatives, while non-discriminative cooperation occurs when food is abundant. This shows for the first time directly the interaction between ecological conditions and relatedness in shaping cooperation. PMID:17148404

  1. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

    OpenAIRE

    Ye, Liming; Xiong, Wei; Li, Zhengguo; Yang, Peng; Wu, Wenbin; Yang, Guixia; Fu, Yijiang; zou, Jinqiu; Chen, Zhongxin; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

    2013-01-01

    International audience Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and te...

  2. Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Walsh, Margaret; Hauser, Rachel; Murray, Anthony; Jadin, Jenna; Baklund, Peter; Robinson, Paula

    2013-01-01

    Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.

  3. Indoor climate optimization with limited resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, A.; Gunnarsen, Lars Bo

    This report presents experimental data and models for optimisation of the indoor climate parameters temperature, noise, draught and window opening. Results are based on experiments with human subjects performed in climate chambers at University of the Philippines. The report may assist building...... designers to balance attention and resources between the parameters of the indoor climate when resources are less than optimal....

  4. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change has a profound impact on agriculture and on food security. At the same time agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Fortunately there is also much to gain since the agricultural sector holds significant climate change mitigation potential through reductions

  5. Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

  6. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth;

    2012-01-01

    Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used...... in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production...... as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across...

  7. Food security, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Taheripour, F.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.; Sahin, S.; Escurra, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper uses an advanced CGE model (Taheripour et al., 2013) coupled with hydrological projections of future water scarcity and biophysical data on likely crop yields under climate change to examine how water scarcity, climate change, and trade jointly alter land use changes across the Indian subcontinent. Climate shocks to rainfed and irrigated yields in 2030 are based on the p-DSSAT crop model, RCP 2.6, as reported under the AgMIP project (Rosenzweig et al., 2013), accessed through GEOSHARE (Villoria et al, 2014). Results show that, when water scarcity is ignored, irrigated areas grow in the wake of climate change as the returns to irrigation rise faster than for rainfed uses of land within a given agro-ecological zone. When non-agricultural competition for future water use, as well as anticipated supply side limitations are brought into play (Rosegrant et al., 2013), the opportunity cost of water rises across all river basins, with the increase ranging from 12% (Luni) to 44% (Brahmaputra). As a consequence, irrigated crop production is curtailed in most regions (Figure 1), with the largest reductions coming in the most water intensive crops, namely rice and wheat. By reducing irrigated area, which tends to have much higher yields, the combined effects of water scarcity and climate impacts require an increase in total cropped area, which rises by about 240,000 ha. The majority of this area expansion occurs in the Ganges, Indus, and Brahmari river basins. Overall crop output falls by about 2 billion, relative to the 2030 baseline, with imports rising by about 570 million. The combined effects of climate change and water scarcity for irrigation also have macro-economic consequences, resulting in a 0.28% reduction in GDP and an increase in the consumer price index by about 0.4% in 2030, compared the baseline. The national welfare impact on India amounts to roughly 3 billion (at 2007 prices) in 2030. Assuming a 3% social discount rate, the net present value of the

  8. Chinese food security and climate change: Agriculture futures

    OpenAIRE

    Ye, Liming; Tang, Huajun; Wu, Wenbin; Yang, Peng; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda

    2013-01-01

    Food security in China affects the livelihood and well-being of one-fifth of the world population. Climate change is now affecting agriculture and food production in every country of the world. Here the authors present the IMPACT model results on yield, production, and net trade of major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in China, and on daily calorie availability as an overall indicator of food security under climate change scenarios and socio-economic pathways in 2050. The obtained results sho...

  9. New Challenges Linking Water, Climate, and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    The strong links among water, climate, and food issues have long been acknowledged, but rarely studied in science or policy because of the complex interactions among local and global factors such as climate change, trade, markets, and politics. As pressures on water resources grow due to "peak water" constraints, the agricultural sector will be disproportionately affected because farmers currently use the vast majority of water mobilized by humans, are especially sensitive to climatic variability and change, and typically pay far less for water than urban and industrial users. There are economic, security, and political challenges associated with these climate impacts. This presentation will look at the interactions among the water, climate, and food sectors, drawing on experience from recent extreme events in hot spots such as the severe drought in California and the drought in the eastern Mediterranean affecting the Tigris and Euphrates river basins.

  10. The Current Limits for Radionuclides in Food in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwaoka, Kazuki

    2016-11-01

    After the TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, the current limits in Japan on the radionuclide contamination of food [100 Bq kg for general foods, 50 Bq kg for milk and infant foods, and 10 Bq kg for drinking water as radioactive cesium (Cs + Cs)] were established on the basis of an effective dose of 1 mSv y, consistent with international standards to mitigate the exposure of the general public to radiation. Measures that include recalling or restriction of food have been taken in cases when these limits were violated. As a result of these efforts, the actual effective doses of radioactive cesium (Cs + Cs) in foods approximately 1 y after the FDNPP accident were below 0.01 mSv y. However, there is little information on the current status of these limits in the literature, which necessitates a comprehensive review of the information that exists. In this paper, the concept behind the introduction of these limits, the methods by which they were derived, and the results of monitoring food accordingly, are reviewed. This information will be helpful in the case of a future accident, and it will also help to enhance the understanding of the current limits and to relieve the anxieties of the general public concerning radiation exposure from radionuclides in food. PMID:27682906

  11. Finnish food chain impacts on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kurppa, Sirpa; Virtanen, Yrjö

    2010-01-01

    The evaluation of the food chain’s environmental impacts was conducted using an environmentalaccounting model developed specifically for the Finnish food chain. The model is based on production and environmental impact data from year 2005. The model considers both Finnish production and Finnish imports in addition to their transport. The targets of the evaluation were the environmental impacts, in 2005, stemming from production. Environmental impacts of the end-use phase were not assessed....

  12. Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Hintermann, Beat; Higgins, Nathaniel

    2009-01-01

    West Africa is one of the most food insecure regions of the world. Sharply increased food and energy prices in 2008 brought the role of markets in food access and availability around the world into the spotlight, particularly in urban areas. The period of high prices had the immediate consequence of sharply increasing the number of hungry people in the region without boosting farmer incomes significantly. In this article, the interaction between markets, food prices, agricultural technology and development is explored in the context of West Africa. To improve food security in West Africa, sustained commitment to investment in the agriculture sector will be needed to provide some protection against global swings in both production and world markets. Climate change mitigation programs are likely to force global energy and commodity price increases in the coming decades, putting pressure on regions like West Africa to produce more food locally to ensure stability in food security for the most vulnerable.

  13. Agroforestry, climate change, and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Successfully addressing global climate change effects on agriculture will require a holistic, sustained approach incorporating a suite of strategies at multiple spatial scales and time horizons. In the USA of the 1930’s, bold and innovative leadership at high levels of government was needed to enact...

  14. Climate smartness in agro-food standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingram, V.J.; Bezlepkina, I.; Verburg, R.W.

    2013-01-01

    This report contributes to the BO-10-020-003 project 'Aligning good agricultural practices and climate smart agriculture' commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and led by Plant Research International. The aim of this memorandum is to provide insight into the question who determines

  15. Climate benefits and environmental challenges related to urban food systems

    OpenAIRE

    Verzandvoort, S.J.E.; Mol, G.; Meulen, van der, A.; Oostrom, van, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    In a short literature review, we have collected available knowledge on the potential benefits of urban agriculture, as part of local food systems, on climate change mitigation and adaptation. The effects of urban agriculture on climate change mitigation and adaptation depend on the type of agricultural practice (e.g. in greenhouses, in soil, in artificial substrates used resources) and the difference with previous land use (e.g. leading to an increase or decrease of sealed soil surface and gr...

  16. Limits to health adaptation in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

  17. Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, T A M; Müller, C; Elliott, J; Deryng, D; Folberth, C; Olin, S; Schmid, E; Arneth, A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand. PMID:27646707

  18. Climatic Extremes and Food Grain Production in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    A, A.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is likely to affect food and water security in India. India has witnessed tremendous growth in its food production after the green revolution. However, during the recent decades the food grain yields were significantly affected by the extreme climate and weather events. Air temperature and associated extreme events (number of hot days and hot nights, heat waves) increased significantly during the last 50 years in the majority of India. More remarkably, a substantial increase in mean and extreme temperatures was observed during the winter season in India. On the other hand, India witnessed extreme flood and drought events that have become frequent during the past few decades. Extreme rainfall during the non-monsoon season adversely affected the food grain yields and results in tremendous losses in several parts of the country. Here we evaluate the changes in hydroclimatic extremes and its linkage with the food grain production in India. We use observed food grain yield data for the period of 1980-2012 at district level. We understand the linkages between food grain yield and crop phenology obtained from the high resolution leaf area index and NDVI datasets from satellites. We used long-term observed data of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to evaluate changes in the extreme events. We use statistical models to develop relationships between crop yields, mean and extreme temperatures for various crops to understand the sensitivity of these crops towards changing climatic conditions. We find that some of the major crop types and predominant crop growing areas have shown a significant sensitivity towards changes in extreme climatic conditions in India.

  19. The Acceptability Limit in Food Shelf Life Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzocco, Lara

    2016-07-26

    Despite its apparently intuitive nature, the acceptability limit is probably the most difficult parameter to be defined when developing a shelf life test. Although it dramatically affects the final shelf life value, it is surprising that discussion on its nature has been largely neglected in the literature and only rare indications about the possible methodologies for its determination are available in the literature. This is due to the fact that the definition of this parameter is a consumer- and market-oriented issue, requiring a rational evaluation of the potential negative consequences of food unacceptability in the actual market scenario. This paper critically analyzes the features of the acceptability limit and the role of the decision maker. The methodologies supporting the choice of the acceptability limit as well as acceptability limit values proposed in the literature to calculate shelf life of different foods are reviewed. PMID:26593702

  20. Functional food availability, a limitation to peoples’ health on Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Ndungu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Background:All foods are imported to markets in smaller islands in the Caribbean. Before export of foods to these destinations, the foods are subjected to several preservative procedures like irradiation, pesticide spray and prolonged refrigeration etc., to last the extended transport periods. This reduces availability of protective elements and the nutrient contents of the foods to scanty levels,especially to common people with low and middle incomes. Hence the majority of people in these categories on the small islands become vulnerable to ill health. Aims and Objectives: To assess 1. Food availability 2. Normal transport period for foods to reach from the suppliers, and 3. Current level of prevalence of non-infective chronic diseases in the area. Methods: Data were collected from two sources. One set of data was collected from the three supermarkets on the island to obtain information on source, transport time and nature of foods imported; and the second from 200 randomly selected responses of diseased persons for information on the age, gender and cause of death. Results: All the foods were imported and the time taken for the food (including protective foods to reach the island was about 3 weeks. The major causes of death were malignancy (30%, diabetes and its complications (25%, cardio vascular diseases (19.5%, STD / HIV (8.5% and other causes (17.0%. A review of prevalence of chronic diseases like hypertension, diabetes, heart diseases, arthritis and associated functional limitations, in the region reveals that their prevalence is proportionately high on the island compared to nearby developed mainland Functional Foods in Health and Disease 2011; 7:222-231 regions. Body mass index of ≥25 was reported to be as high as 58.3%. The health care facilitiesavailable are seen to be limited and public health activity to prevent or manage the prevailing chronic health issues, appeared to be meager. Conclusion: There is a need to address the

  1. Contributing to Food Security in the Context of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since the laboratories of the IAEA Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications were established in Seibersdorf in 1962, the world’s population has grown from 3.14 billion to 7.15 billion, which, combined with continuously increasing industrialization and economic development, has led to greater global food demand. This has placed substantial stress on natural resources as well as the agricultural production chain. The challenges to food safety and security have also been amplified by the impacts of climate change, which have global ramifications, as noted in the March 2014 report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change impacts include higher temperatures, drought, more frequent extreme weather events and increased soil salinity which can have severe effects on agricultural production. Helping Member States adapt to and mitigate these impacts is a main focus of the five laboratories of the Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture in Seibersdorf. These laboratories are dedicated to increasing food security and safety using nuclear science and technology

  2. US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact

  3. Climate mitigating information to consumers by food retailers

    OpenAIRE

    Spendrup, Sara

    2016-01-01

    Human food consumption contributes to climate change and changing consumption patterns towards a more vegetable-based diet could decrease GHG emissions. However, such change is difficult to achieve due to ingrained habits, cultural and social norms and culinary preferences, highlighting a need to understand consumer behaviour and find efficient strategies for communicating the issue within supermarkets. To encourage a change to a more vegetable-based diet, product development is necessar...

  4. Monitoring and Predicting the African Climate for Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiaw, W. M.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the greatest challenges in Africa due to its impact on access to sanitary water and food. In response to this challenge, the international community has mobilized to develop famine early warning systems (FEWS) to bring safe food and water to populations in need. Over the past several decades, much attention has focused on advance risk planning in agriculture and water. This requires frequent updates of weather and climate outlooks. This paper describes the active role of NOAA's African Desk in FEWS. Emphasis is on the operational products from short and medium range weather forecasts to subseasonal and seasonal outlooks in support of humanitarian relief programs. Tools to provide access to real time weather and climate information to the public are described. These include the downscaling of the U.S. National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) to improve seasonal forecasts in support of Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs). The subseasonal time scale has emerged as extremely important to many socio-economic sectors. Drawing from advances in numerical models that can now provide a better representation of the MJO, operational subseasonal forecasts are included in the African Desk product suite. These along with forecasts skill assessment and verifications are discussed. The presentation will also highlight regional hazards outlooks basis for FEWSNET food security outlooks.

  5. Forests in a water limited world under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The debate on ecological and climatic benefits of planted forests at the sensitive dry edge of the closed forest belt (i.e. at the ‘xeric limits’) is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, accumulate biomass, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously dominated by grassland or cropland can dramatically alter the energy and water balances at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts and growing extremes due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. We investigated some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of forests and potential impacts of climate change at the dryland margins of the temperate-continental zone using case studies from China, the United States and SE Europe (Hungary). We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effects of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of forestation on water resources might be negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events is likely to reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest management and forestation planning should be adjusted to the local, projected hydrologic and climatic conditions, and should also consider non-forest alternative land uses. (paper)

  6. Climate change has limited impact on soil-mantled landsliding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Robert; Hales, Tristram; Mudd, Simon; Grieve, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Projected increases in future storminess, associated with anthropogenically-driven climate change, are expected to produce an increase in landslide frequency and hazards. This prediction relies on an implicit and poorly tested assumption, that landslide frequency is limited by the effectiveness of landslide triggers (pore-pressure events determined by the intensity and duration of storms). Using an unprecedented field dataset of hillslope soil depths and ages (attained through radiocarbon dating) from the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), we show that this assumption is not valid in this landscape. Instead, landslide frequency is limited by rates of soil production and transport processes, which prepare sites for future landsliding. By simulating the evolution of Appalachian hillslopes, we demonstrate that unless climate change can drive an increase in soil production and transport rates, an increase in future storminess will have little effect on long-term landslide frequency, while individual storms will trigger fewer and smaller landslides.

  7. Compliance of feed limits, does not mean compliance of food limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Raamsdonk LWD.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is an important aspect of the animal production chain. For a proper containment, limits for feed as well food products are fixed for a series of chemicals, e.g. dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs, lead, cadmium, some chlorinated pesticides, and aflatoxin B1 (and its metabolite M1 in milk. The relationship between feed and food limits is an important issue. An ideal goal is to assure that compliance to a feed limits automatically results in compliance to food limits. In order to collect information about this relationship, several simulation models and a large database on transfer factors have been developed. An optimal choice between either a model or an application of data from the Transfer Database is based on both the knowledge level, and on the circumstances of the specific situation. To reach and validate such an optimal choice an Expert System Carry-Over is currently in development, containing four different modules: 1 the different calculation models and the Transfer Database, 2 a decision tree for choosing the optimal strategy, 3 data tables indicating knowledge levels of compound/animal/product parameters, and 4 supporting databases containing information on consumption and composition of daily diets, animal parameters, and amounts of (daily production. Calculations indicate that for dioxins compliance to feed levels does not necessarily mean that food limits are complied as well. Besides an estimation of the compliance to limits, the expert system is a tool for feed related risk assessments, and for planning of future research.

  8. Potential contributions of food consumption patterns to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika; González, Alejandro D

    2009-05-01

    Anthropogenic warming is caused mainly by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, with agriculture as a main contributor for the latter 2 gases. Other parts of the food system contribute carbon dioxide emissions that emanate from the use of fossil fuels in transportation, processing, retailing, storage, and preparation. Food items differ substantially when GHG emissions are calculated from farm to table. A recent study of approximately 20 items sold in Sweden showed a span of 0.4 to 30 kg CO(2) equivalents/kg edible product. For protein-rich food, such as legumes, meat, fish, cheese, and eggs, the difference is a factor of 30 with the lowest emissions per kilogram for legumes, poultry, and eggs and the highest for beef, cheese, and pork. Large emissions for ruminants are explained mainly by methane emissions from enteric fermentation. For vegetables and fruits, emissions usually are foods rich in carbohydrates, such as potatoes, pasta, and wheat, are <1.1 kg/kg edible food. We suggest that changes in the diet toward more plant-based foods, toward meat from animals with little enteric fermentation, and toward foods processed in an energy-efficient manner offer an interesting and little explored area for mitigating climate change. PMID:19339402

  9. Monitoring of antimicrobial resistance among food animals: Principles and limitations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarestrup, Frank Møller

    2004-01-01

    Large amounts of antimicrobial agents are in the production of food animals used for therapy and prophylactics of bacterial infections and in feed to promote growth. The use of antimicrobial agents causes problems in the therapy of infections through the selection for resistance among bacteria...... pathogenic for animals or humans. Current knowledge regarding the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in food animals, the quantitative impact of the use of different antimicrobial agents on selection for resistance and the most appropriate treatment regimes to limit the development of resistance...... is incomplete. Programmes monitoring the occurrence and development of resistance are essential to determine the most important areas for intervention and to monitor the effects of interventions. When designing a monitoring programme it is important to decide on the purpose of the programme. Thus...

  10. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Takemoto

    Full Text Available Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming, whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  11. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

    2016-01-01

    Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity—non-random structural patterns of ecological networks—influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities. PMID:27322185

  12. Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

    2014-12-01

    The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the

  13. Climate change and its effect on world food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In February of 1972 earth-orbiting artificial satellites revealed the existence of a greatly increased area of the snow and ice cover of the north polar cap as compared to all previous years of space age observations. Some scientists believe that this may have presaged the onset of the dramatic climate anomalies of 1972 that brought far-reaching adversities to the world's peoples. Moreover, there is mounting evidence that the bad climate of 1972 may be the forerunner of a long series of less favorable agricultural crop years that lie ahead for most world societies. Thus widespread food shortages threaten just at the same time that world populations are growing to new highs. Indeed, less favorable climate may be the new global norm. The Earth may have entered a new 'little ice age'. Perhaps this future period will not be so extreme as that around 1700 AD, but it seems likely, at least, to be a cooler period resembling the hemispheric climatic regimes of the period from 1880-1920. (author)

  14. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  15. Nonautonomous Food-Limited Fishery Model With Adaptive Harvesting

    CERN Document Server

    Idels, L V

    2010-01-01

    We will introduce the biological motivation of the $\\gamma$- food-limited model with variable parameters. New criteria are established for the existence and global stability of positive periodic solutions. To prove the existence of steady-state solutions, we used the upper-lower solution method where the existence of at least one positive periodic solution is obtained by constructing a pair of upper and lower solutions and application of the Friedreichs Theorem. Numerical simulations illustrate effects of periodic variation in the values of the basic biological and environmental parameters and how the adaptive harvesting strategies affect fishing stocks.

  16. Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

  17. The role for scientists in tackling food insecurity and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beddington John R

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract To adapt to climate change and ensure food security, major interventions are required to transform current patterns and practices of food production, distribution and consumption. The scientific community has an essential role to play in informing concurrent, strategic investments to establish climate-resilient agricultural production systems, minimize greenhouse gas emissions, make efficient use of resources, develop low-waste supply chains, ensure adequate nutrition, encourage healthy eating choices and develop a global knowledge system for sustainability. This paper outlines scientific contributions that will be essential to the seven policy recommendations for achieving food security in the context of climate change put forward by the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change. These include improved understanding of agriculture’s vulnerability to climate change, food price dynamics, food waste and consumption patterns and monitoring technologies as well as multidisciplinary investigation of regionally appropriate responses to climate change and food security challenges.

  18. Food availability at birth limited reproductive success in historical humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickard, Ian J; Holopainen, Jari; Helama, Samuli; Helle, Samuli; Russell, Andrew F; Lummaa, Virpi

    2010-12-01

    Environmental conditions in early life can profoundly affect individual development and have consequences for reproductive success. Limited food availability may be one of the reasons for this, but direct evidence linking variation in early-life nutrition to reproductive performance in adulthood in natural populations is sparse. We combined historical agricultural data with detailed demographic church records to investigate the effect of food availability around the time of birth on the reproductive success of 927 men and women born in 18th-century Finland. Our study population exhibits natural mortality and fertility rates typical of many preindustrial societies, and individuals experienced differing access to resources due to social stratification. We found that among both men and women born into landless families (i.e., with low access to resources), marital prospects, probability of reproduction, and offspring viability were all positively related to local crop yield during the birth year. Such effects were generally absent among those born into landowning families. Among landless individuals born when yields of the two main crops, rye and barley, were both below median, only 50% of adult males and 55% of adult females gained any reproductive success in their lifetime, whereas 97% and 95% of those born when both yields were above the median did so. Our results suggest that maternal investment in offspring in prenatal or early postnatal life may have profound implications for the evolutionary fitness of human offspring, particularly among those for which resources are more limiting. Our study adds support to the idea that early nutrition can limit reproductive success in natural animal populations, and provides the most direct evidence to date that this process applies to humans.

  19. Limits to Ambulatory Displacement of Coconut Mites in Absence and Presence of Food-Related Cues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.W.S. Melo; D.B. Lima; M.W. Sabelis; A. Pallini; M.G.C. Gondim Jr.

    2014-01-01

    Ambulatory movement of plant-feeding mites sets limits to the distances they can cover to reach a new food source. In absence of food-related cues these limits are determined by survival, walking activity, walking path tortuosity and walking speed, whereas in presence of food the limits are also det

  20. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  1. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  2. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  3. Climate change and food safety: An emerging issue with special focus on Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miraglia, M.; Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.; Battilani, P.; Brera, C.; Coni, E.; Cubadda, F.; Croci, L.; Santis, De B.; Dekkers, S.; Filippi, L.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Noordam, M.Y.; Pisante, M.; Piva, G.; Prandini, A.; Toti, L.; Born, van den G.J.; Vespermann, A.

    2009-01-01

    According to general consensus, the global climate is changing, which may also affect agricultural and livestock production. The potential impact of climate change on food security is a widely debated and investigated issue. Nonetheless, the specific impact on safety of food and feed for consumers h

  4. Structural and psycho-social limits to climate change adaptation in the great barrier reef region

    OpenAIRE

    Louisa S. Evans; Hicks, Christina C.; W Neil Adger; Jon Barnett; Allison L Perry; Pedro Fidelman; Renae Tobin

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder...

  5. The Climate Change and Economic Impacts of Food Waste in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Venkat, Kumar

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzes the climate change and economic impacts of food waste in the United States. Using loss-adjusted national food availability data for 134 food commodities, it calculates the greenhouse gas emissions due to wasted food using life cycle assessment and the economic cost of the waste using retail prices. The analysis shows that avoidable food waste in the US exceeds 55 million metric tonnes per year, nearly 29% of annual production. This waste produces life-cycle greenhouse gas ...

  6. Outstanding challenges limiting the development of climate services in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buontempo, Carlo; Soares, Marta Bruno; Liggins, Felicity

    2016-04-01

    Climate services attempt to make the available (or forthcoming) climate knowledge more usable by decision and policy makers in the development of a climate smart society. Since the launch of the Global Framework for Climate Services in 2009 there has been an exponential increase in investment in the development and delivery of climate services, leading to an array of projects and initiatives across Europe. However, to date little attention has been given to understanding the different ways in which climate services are defined, implemented, and evaluated in Europe. In addition, other aspects such as how to pursue the necessary processes of co-production, which business models to apply, and the implications for the careers of scientists and others involved in the development of climate services are also crucial elements that need to be further examined and discussed. Such aspects are critical to the future development of climate services as they have the potential to significantly constrain the growth of climate services in Europe. Starting from a set of questions that have arisen within some of the most prominent climate services projects and initiatives in Europe, our paper highlights and expands on the outstanding challenges that need to be resolved by both the scientific community and the funders in order to ensure climate services can prosper and grow in Europe.

  7. Building a municipal food policy regime in Minneapolis: implications for urban climate governance

    OpenAIRE

    Jane E Shey; David Belis

    2013-01-01

    With this paper we analyze Minneapolis’s urban food policy regime and attempt to make a case for applying urban regime theory (URT) to study climate change governance at the municipal level. In 2008 Minneapolis launched Homegrown Minneapolis, a multiple stakeholder initiative bringing together local government actors, businesses, and NGOs to build a sustainable and local food system. As the link between food systems and climate change is increasingly acknowledged in the literature, the analys...

  8. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  9. Local food security initiatives: systemic limitations in Vancouver, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Wong, Alfred; Hallsworth, Alan

    2016-01-01

    This paper approaches the topic of urban/community gardening not through the lens of urban theory per se but in light of basic farming realities such as growing season and land availability. Food security comprises availability and affordability. In the context of North American and Western European societies, only food affordability normally merits public discourse. In practice, governments have little or no means to change food affordability, in view of prevailing capitalistic free-market s...

  10. Sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply. Political and legal challenges of the 21th century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The book on sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply as political challenges in the 21th century includes contributions on the following topics: sustainability and environment, energy and climatic change, agriculture and world food supply.

  11. How phosphorus limitation can control climatic gas emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gypens, Nathalie; Borges, Alberto V.; Speeckaert, Gaelle; Ghyoot, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic activities severely increased river nutrient [nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)] loads to European coastal areas. However, specific nutrient reduction policies implemented since the late 1990's have considerably reduced P loads, while N is maintained. In the Southern North Sea, the resulting N: P: Si imbalance (compared to phytoplankton requirements) stimulated the growth of Phaeocystis colonies modifying the functioning of the ecosystem and, therefore, the carbon cycle but also the biogenic sulphur cycle, Phaeocystis being a significant producer of DMSP (dimethylsulphide propionate), the precursor of dimethylsulfide (DMS). In this application, the mechanistic MIRO-BIOGAS model is used to investigate the effects of changing N and P loads on ecosystem structure and their impact on DMS and CO2 emissions. In particular, competition for P between phytoplankton groups (diatoms vs Phaeocystis colonies) but also between phytoplankton and bacteria is explored. The ability of autotroph and heterotroph organism to use dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) as P nutrient source is also explored and its effect on climatic gas emission estimated. Simulations were done from 1950 to 2010 and different nutrient limiting conditions are analyzed.

  12. America's Climate Choices: Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, A.; Fri, R.; Brown, M.; Geller, L.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a study on strategies for limiting the magnitude of future climate change (i.e. mitigation). Limiting climate change is a global effort that will require significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by countries around the world. U.S. action alone is not sufficient, but it is clearly necessary for the U.S. to make significant contributions to the global effort. While efforts to limit climate change are already underway across the U.S. (by state and local governments, businesses, non-governmental organizations, and individual households), we currently lack a framework of federal policies to help assure that all key actors participating and working towards coherent national goals. This study recommends a U.S. policy goal stated as a budget for cumulative greenhouse gas emissions through the year 2050, and offers an illustrative range of budget numbers derived from recent work of the Energy Modeling Forum. The report evaluates the types of changes to our nation's energy system that are needed to meet a budget in the proposed range, which leads to a conclusion that the U.S. must get started now in aggressively pursuing available emission reduction opportunities, while also investing heavily in R&D to create new emission reduction opportunities. The study offers a series of recommendations for how to move ahead in pursing these near-term and longer-term opportunities. The recommendations address the need for a carbon pricing system and strategically-targeted complimentary policies, for effective international engagement, for careful balancing of federal with state/local action, and for consideration of equity and employment impacts of response policies. The study also discusses the need to design policies that are both durable over the

  13. Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easterling, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

  14. Life-history variation of a neotropical thrush challenges food limitation theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, V.; Llambias, P.E.; Martin, T.E.

    2005-01-01

    Since David Lack first proposed that birds rear as many young as they can nourish, food limitation has been accepted as the primary explanation for variation in clutch size and other life-history traits in birds. The importance of food limitation in life-history variation, however, was recently questioned on theoretical grounds. Here, we show that clutch size differences between two populations of a neotropical thrush were contrary to expectations under Lack's food limitation hypothesis. Larger clutch sizes were found in a population with higher nestling starvation rate (i.e. greater food limitation). We experimentally equalized clutches between populations to verify this difference in food limitation. Our experiment confirmed greater food limitation in the population with larger mean clutch size. In addition, incubation bout length and nestling growth rate were also contrary to predictions of food limitation theory. Our results demonstrate the inability of food limitation to explain differences in several life-history traits: clutch size, incubation behaviour, parental feeding rate and nestling growth rate. These life-history traits were better explained by inter-population differences in nest predation rates. Food limitation may be less important to life history evolution in birds than suggested by traditional theory. ?? 2005 The Royal Society.

  15. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

  16. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of spatiotemporal maize-area dynamics across the northern limit for maize production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith; Dalgaard, Tommy;

    2011-01-01

    It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here, we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial......-climatic factors on the maize area dynamics. Our results show that even the relatively small climate changes that have been realized in the last decades have been partly driving the spatiotemporal dynamics of an important agricultural crop towards its northern cultivation limit in Europe....

  17. Ocean warming, more than acidification, reduces shell strength in a commercial shellfish species during food limitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenzie, Clara L; Ormondroyd, Graham A; Curling, Simon F; Ball, Richard J; Whiteley, Nia M; Malham, Shelagh K

    2014-01-01

    Ocean surface pH levels are predicted to fall by 0.3-0.4 pH units by the end of the century and are likely to coincide with an increase in sea surface temperature of 2-4 °C. The combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the functional properties of bivalve shells is largely unknown and of growing concern as the shell provides protection from mechanical and environmental challenges. We examined the effects of near-future pH (ambient pH -0.4 pH units) and warming (ambient temperature +4 °C) on the shells of the commercially important bivalve, Mytilus edulis when fed for a limited period (4-6 h day(-1)). After six months exposure, warming, but not acidification, significantly reduced shell strength determined as reductions in the maximum load endured by the shells. However, acidification resulted in a reduction in shell flex before failure. Reductions in shell strength with warming could not be explained by alterations in morphology, or shell composition but were accompanied by reductions in shell surface area, and by a fall in whole-body condition index. It appears that warming has an indirect effect on shell strength by re-allocating energy from shell formation to support temperature-related increases in maintenance costs, especially as food supply was limited and the mussels were probably relying on internal energy reserves. The maintenance of shell strength despite seawater acidification suggests that biomineralisation processes are unaffected by the associated changes in CaCO3 saturation levels. We conclude that under near-future climate change conditions, ocean warming will pose a greater risk to shell integrity in M. edulis than ocean acidification when food availability is limited.

  18. Ocean warming, more than acidification, reduces shell strength in a commercial shellfish species during food limitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara L Mackenzie

    Full Text Available Ocean surface pH levels are predicted to fall by 0.3-0.4 pH units by the end of the century and are likely to coincide with an increase in sea surface temperature of 2-4 °C. The combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the functional properties of bivalve shells is largely unknown and of growing concern as the shell provides protection from mechanical and environmental challenges. We examined the effects of near-future pH (ambient pH -0.4 pH units and warming (ambient temperature +4 °C on the shells of the commercially important bivalve, Mytilus edulis when fed for a limited period (4-6 h day(-1. After six months exposure, warming, but not acidification, significantly reduced shell strength determined as reductions in the maximum load endured by the shells. However, acidification resulted in a reduction in shell flex before failure. Reductions in shell strength with warming could not be explained by alterations in morphology, or shell composition but were accompanied by reductions in shell surface area, and by a fall in whole-body condition index. It appears that warming has an indirect effect on shell strength by re-allocating energy from shell formation to support temperature-related increases in maintenance costs, especially as food supply was limited and the mussels were probably relying on internal energy reserves. The maintenance of shell strength despite seawater acidification suggests that biomineralisation processes are unaffected by the associated changes in CaCO3 saturation levels. We conclude that under near-future climate change conditions, ocean warming will pose a greater risk to shell integrity in M. edulis than ocean acidification when food availability is limited.

  19. Experimental evidence and 43 years of monitoring data show that food limits reproduction in a food-caching passerine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derbyshire, Rachael; Strickland, Dan; Norris, D Ryan

    2015-11-01

    Several species of birds and mammals overcome periods of scarcity by caching food, but for the vast majority of species, it is virtually unknown whether they are food limited during these periods. The Gray Jay (Perisoreus canadensis) is a boreal-resident, food-caching passerine that breeds in late winter when fresh food is scarce. Using a two-year experiment and 43 years of monitoring data, we examined the food limitation hypothesis in a population of Gray Jays in Algonquin Park, Ontario, Canada, that has declined by over 50% in the last three decades. Breeding pairs that were experimentally food supplemented during the pre-breeding period laid eggs earlier in the season and had larger brood sizes than non-supplemented controls. From the long-term data, we found strong evidence that pairs that were regularly supplemented by the public (park visitors) tended to lay eggs earlier and have larger clutches and brood sizes compared to pairs that were not supplemented. Nestling body condition (mass controlled for body size) was not influenced by either experimental or public food supplementation. Our results support the hypothesis that Gray Jays are food limited during their late-winter breeding period and suggest that warmer fall temperatures, which have been hypothesized to lead to cache spoilage, may have a significant impact on reproductive success in this declining population. Moreover, our results contribute to understanding how public feeding can influence the fitness of wild animals. PMID:27070019

  20. The role for scientists in tackling food insecurity and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Beddington John R; Asaduzzaman Mohammed; Clark Megan E; Bremauntz Adrian; Guillou Marion D; Jahn Molly M; Lin Erda; Mamo Tekalign; Negra Christine; Nobre Carlos A; Scholes Robert J; Sharma Rita; Van Bo Nguyen; Wakhungu Judi

    2012-01-01

    Abstract To adapt to climate change and ensure food security, major interventions are required to transform current patterns and practices of food production, distribution and consumption. The scientific community has an essential role to play in informing concurrent, strategic investments to establish climate-resilient agricultural production systems, minimize greenhouse gas emissions, make efficient use of resources, develop low-waste supply chains, ensure adequate nutrition, encourage heal...

  1. The economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chuen Khee, Pek; Yet Mee, Lim; Chee Keong, Choong

    2011-01-01

    This study estimates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia. The contingent valuation technique is employed on 456 randomly selected households in the vicinities of Selangor Darul Ehsan. The study finds that climate change mitigation programmes to ensure food security are important. The public is willing to pay extra rice price in substitution of a rice subsidy reduction impact for the mitigation programmes. More specifically, the study ascertains that households o...

  2. Cyclodextrins in Food Technology and Human Nutrition: Benefits and Limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenyvesi, É; Vikmon, M; Szente, L

    2016-09-01

    Cyclodextrins are tasteless, odorless, nondigestible, noncaloric, noncariogenic saccharides, which reduce the digestion of carbohydrates and lipids. They have low glycemic index and decrease the glycemic index of the food. They are either non- or only partly digestible by the enzymes of the human gastrointestinal (GI) tract and fermented by the gut microflora. Based on these properties, cyclodextrins are dietary fibers useful for controlling the body weight and blood lipid profile. They are prebiotics, improve the intestinal microflora by selective proliferation of bifidobacteria. These antiobesity and anti-diabetic effects make them bioactive food supplements and nutraceuticals. In this review, these features are evaluated for α-, β- and γ-cyclodextrins, which are the cyclodextrin variants approved by authorities for food applications. The mechanisms behind these effects are reviewed together with the applications as solubilizers, stabilizers of dietary lipids, such as unsaturated fatty acids, phytosterols, vitamins, flavonoids, carotenoids and other nutraceuticals. The recent applications of cyclodextrins for reducing unwanted components, such as trans-fats, allergens, mycotoxins, acrylamides, bitter compounds, as well as in smart active packaging of foods are also overviewed. PMID:25764389

  3. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki;

    2013-01-01

    attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years(2......-4). Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33 of the harvested area...... of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop-rice and wheat yields were the most...

  4. Linking human health, climate change, and food security through ecological-based sanitation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryals, R.; Kramer, S.; Porder, S.; Andersen, G. L.

    2015-12-01

    Ensuring access to clean, safe sanitation for the world's population remains a challenging, yet critical, global sustainability goal. Ecological-based sanitation (EcoSan) technology is a promising strategy for improving sanitation, particularly in areas where financial resources and infrastructure are limiting. The composting of human waste and its use as an agricultural soil amendment can tackle three important challenges in developing countries - providing improved sanitation for vulnerable communities, reducing the spread of intestinal-born pathogens, and returning nutrients and organic matter to degraded agricultural soils. The extent of these benefits and potential tradeoffs are not well known, but have important implications for the widespread adoption of this strategy to promote healthy communities and enhance food security. We quantified the effects of EcoSan on the climate and human health in partnership with Sustainable Organic Integrated Livelihoods (SOIL) in Haiti. We measured greenhouse gas emissions (nitrous oxide, methane, and carbon dioxide) from compost piles that ranged in age from 0 to 14 months (i.e. finished) from two compost facilities managed with or without cement lining. We also measured emissions from a government-operated waste treatment pond and a grass field where waste has been illegally dumped. The highest methane emissions were observed from the anaerobic waste pond, whereas the dump site and compost piles had higher nitrous oxide emissions. Net greenhouse gases (CO2-equivalents) from unlined compost piles were 8x lower than lined compost piles and 20 and 30x lower than the dump and waste pond, respectively. We screened finished compost for fecal pathogens using bacterial 16S sequencing. Bacterial pathogens were eliminated regardless of the type of composting process. Pilot trials indicate that the application of compost to crops has a large potential for increasing food production. This research suggests that EcoSan systems are

  5. Effects of climate change on food safety hazards in the dairy production chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiegel, van der M.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Marvin, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of climate change on emerging food safety hazards in the dairy production chain. For this purpose, a holistic approach was used to select critical factors from inside and outside the production chain that are affected by climatic factors. An expert judg

  6. Effects of climate on size structure and functioning of aquatic food webs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lacerot, G.

    2010-01-01

    In aquatic food webs, the role of body size is notoriously strong. It is also well known that temperature has an effect on body size. For instance, Bergmann’s rule states that body size increases from warm to cold climates. This thesis addresses the question how climate shapes the size structure of

  7. Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection

    OpenAIRE

    Ferdous Ahmed; Abul Quasem Al-Amin; Zeeda Fatimah Mohamad; Santha Chenayah

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic v...

  8. Feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and the limits of linear models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugenstein, M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-12-01

    The term "feedback" is used ubiquitously in climate research, but implies varied meanings in different contexts. From a specific process that locally affects a quantity, to a formal framework that attempts to determine a global response to a forcing, researchers use this term to separate, simplify, and quantify parts of the complex Earth system. We combine large (>120 member) ensemble GCM and EMIC step forcing simulations over a broad range of forcing levels with a historical and educational perspective to organize existing ideas around feedbacks and linear forcing-feedback models. With a new method overcoming internal variability and initial condition problems we quantify the non-constancy of the climate feedback parameter. Our results suggest a strong state- and forcing-dependency of feedbacks, which is not considered appropriately in many studies. A non-constant feedback factor likely explains some of the differences in estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity from different methods and types of data. We discuss implications for the definition of the forcing term and its various adjustments. Clarifying the value and applicability of the linear forcing feedback framework and a better quantification of feedbacks on various timescales and spatial scales remains a high priority in order to better understand past and predict future changes in the climate system.

  9. On the Vulnerability of Water Limited Ecosystems to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly K. Caylor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Society is facing growing environmental problems that require new research efforts to understand the way ecosystems operate and survive, and their mutual relationships with the hydrologic cycle. In this respect, ecohydrology suggests a renewed interdisciplinary approach that aims to provide a better comprehension of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems. With this aim, a coupled hydrological/ecological model is adopted to describe simultaneously vegetation pattern evolution and hydrological water budget at the basin scale using as test site the Upper Rio Salado basin (Sevilleta, NM, USA. The hydrological analyses have been carried out using a recently formulated framework for the water balance at the daily level linked with a spatial model for the description of the spatial organization of vegetation. This enables quantitatively assessing the effects on soil water availability on future climatic scenarios. Results highlighted that the relationship between climatic forcing (water availability and vegetation patterns is strongly non-linear. This implies, under some specific conditions which depend on the ecosystem characteristics, small changes in climatic conditions may produce significant transformation of the vegetation patterns.

  10. The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Soil Properties and Processes and Corresponding Influence on Food Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric C. Brevik

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC, global temperatures are expected to increase between 1.1 and 6.4 °C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered. Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Because of this, altered climate will have an effect on soil processes and properties. Recent studies indicate at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric C, lowering soil organic matter levels. Soil erosion by wind and water is also likely to increase. However, there are many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the N cycle and, in turn, how that will affect C storage in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of how erosion processes will be influenced by changes in climate. The response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like N and P, and how that will influence soil organic matter levels, is another critical research need. How soil organic matter levels react to changes in the C and N cycles will influence the ability of soils to support crop growth, which has significant ramifications for food security. Therefore, further study of soil-climate interactions in a changing world is critical to addressing future food security concerns.

  11. Urban adaptation planning: the use and limits of climate science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodman, David; Carmin, Joann

    2011-11-15

    Cities face a mounting challenge from climate change. In developed and developing countries alike, rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, higher sea levels, and more frequent and severe extreme events such as droughts and floods threaten to overwhelm urban infrastructure, services and management systems. City officials recognise the need to adapt to climate change, and use scientific evidence to support their plans for doing so. But the precise details of these changes and the local impacts they will have cannot be predicted. Decision makers must learn to draw on scientific data while simultaneously managing the uncertainty inherent in future projections. Across the world, forward-looking city officials are proving themselves to be 'urban adaptation leaders' — mobilising political and public support for and devising flexible approaches to adaptation.

  12. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture's mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.

  13. Characterizing tradeoffs between water and food under different climate regimes across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, T.; Zhu, X.; Kipgen, C.; Li, X.; Pal, I.

    2015-12-01

    As water demand approaches or exceeds the available water supply in many regions of the globe, water stress will become increasingly prevalent with potentially necessary tradeoffs required between water prioritization amongst sectors. Agriculture is the largest consumptive water user in the US, and irrigation plays a vital role in ensuring a stable food supply by buffering against climate extremes. However, it also plays a negative role in inducing water stress in many regions. Much research has focused on reducing agricultural water use, but this needs to be complemented by better quantifying the benefit of irrigation on crop yields under a range of climate conditions. Regions are identified with significant irrigation benefits with and without water stress to parse apart the role of climate, crop choice, and water usage to then evaluate tradeoffs with food production in a climate-water-food nexus.

  14. Combined effects of elevated CO2 and food limitation on early life stages of Clanus finmarchicus

    OpenAIRE

    Ostebrøt, Embla Oddvarsdotter

    2014-01-01

    The early life stages of Calanus finmarchicus were exposed to two levels of pCO2, 380 ppm (control) and 2080 ppm (elevated CO2) and two different food concentrations, ~ 600 µg C/L (high food concentration) and ~150 µg C/L (food limited). Carbon and nitrogen analysis were performed at the first feeding stage (nauplii stage 3), and the last nauplii stage before moulting to copepodit (nauplii stage 6). The elevated CO2 and food limitation had a significant negative additive effect, whe...

  15. Marketing Strategy for the International Food Shop Keidas : Marketing Strategy: Keidas Food Shop or Intercultural Corporation Limited Liability Company

    OpenAIRE

    Reh, Plyah

    2013-01-01

    Abstract This research for the study of the marketing strategy has been prepared for the Keidas food shop or Intercultural Corporation limited liability Company. This thesis aims to explore the opportunities and possibilities that the company could achieve with an effective and efficient marketing strategy in the future. The oriental food shop has great potential to serve a large Finnish customer base in the Kymenlaakso area, but due to a lack of a marketing strategy, the company has fa...

  16. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in the Food Industry—Insights from Product Carbon and Water Footprints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley Ridoutt

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity that needs to be considered in business strategy. For firms in the food industry, many of the important climate impacts are not directly related to food processing so a value chain approach to adaptation is recommended. However, there is a general lack of operational tools to support this. In this study, carbon and water footprints were conducted at a low-precision screening level in three case studies in Australia: Smith’s potato chips, OneHarvest Calypso™ mango and selected Treasury Wine Estates products. The approach was cost-effective when compared to high-definition studies intended to support environmental labels and declarations, yet provided useful identification of physical, financial, regulatory and reputational hotspots related to climate change. A combination of diagnostic footprinting, downscaled climate projection and semi-quantitative value chain analysis is proposed as a practical and relevant toolkit to inform climate adaptation strategies.

  17. FOOD QUALITY AND SAFETY ASSURANCE IN TERMS OF LOSS AND WASTE LIMITATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Śmiechowska

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges of 21st century is satisfying the food needs of the fast growing population of the world. Food must fulfill quality and safety standards.  The access to safe and appropriate food is not the same everywhere.  Food excess and, in consequence, food waste is present in many regions of the world. This study is meant to explain the causes of food waste on the basis of the author’s own research and study results of other scientists. The lack of authenticity and falsification belong to the new factors endangering food safety and food waste related thereto. This analysis proves that the authenticity of food improves its safety through the implementation of quality management systems, the appropriate system of food labelling and food identification by means of applicable law regulations, supervision and control systems. Main aim of this study is to address why, even though there are so many quality standards and systems, a significant problem with food loss and waste constantly occurs. Waste-causing factors have been determined on the example of bread and the handling of unconsumed bread has been attempted in this study. Waste limiting actions are necessary as food production is significantly overburdening the natural environment and generating increasing amount of waste, hazardous to the clean air. 

  18. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  19. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: water efficiency and climate signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan

    2016-01-01

    Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in southern Africa is particularly high. The associated drought and flood risks, combined with a largely rain-fed agriculture, pose a challenge for water and food security in the region. As regional collaboration strengthens through the Southern Africa Development Community and trade with other regions increases, it is thus important to understand both how climate variability affects agricultural productivity and how food trade (regional and extra-regional) can contribute to the region's capacity to deal with climate-related shocks. We combine global hydrological model simulations with international food trade data to quantify the water resources embedded in international food trade in southern Africa and with the rest of the world, from 1986-2011. We analyze the impacts of socio-economic changes and climatic variability on agricultural trade and embedded water resources during this period. We find that regional food trade is efficient in terms of water use but may be unsustainable because water-productive exporters, like South Africa, rely on increasingly stressed water resources. The role of imports from the rest of the world in the region's food supply is important, in particular during severe droughts. This reflects how trade can efficiently redistribute water resources across continents in response to a sudden gap in food production. In a context of regional and global integration, our results highlight opportunities for improved water-efficiency and sustainability of the region's food supply via trade.

  20. Geophysical Tools, Challenges and Perspectives Related to Natural Hazards, Climate Change and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fucugauchi, J. U.

    2013-05-01

    In the coming decades a changing climate and natural hazards will likely increase the vulnerability of agricultural and other food production infrastructures, posing increasing treats to industrialized and developing economies. While food security concerns affect us globally, the huge differences among countries in stocks, population size, poverty levels, economy, technologic development, transportation, health care systems and basic infrastructure will pose a much larger burden on populations in the developing and less developed world. In these economies, increase in the magnitude, duration and frequency of droughts, floods, hurricanes, rising sea levels, heat waves, thunderstorms, freezing events and other phenomena will pose severe costs on the population. For this presentation, we concentrate on a geophysical perspective of the problems, tools available, challenges and short and long-term perspectives. In many instances, a range of natural hazards are considered as unforeseen catastrophes, which suddenly affect without warning, resulting in major losses. Although the forecasting capacity in the different situations arising from climate change and natural hazards is still limited, there are a range of tools available to assess scenarios and forecast models for developing and implementing better mitigation strategies and prevention programs. Earth observation systems, geophysical instrumental networks, satellite observatories, improved understanding of phenomena, expanded global and regional databases, geographic information systems, higher capacity for computer modeling, numerical simulations, etc provide a scientific-technical framework for developing strategies. Hazard prevention and mitigation programs will result in high costs globally, however major costs and challenges concentrate on the less developed economies already affected by poverty, famines, health problems, social inequalities, poor infrastructure, low life expectancy, high population growth

  1. Impacts of climate and land use change on ecosystem hydrology and net primary productivity: Linking water availability to food security in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangal, S. R. S.; Tian, H.; Pan, S.; Zhang, B.; Yang, J.

    2015-12-01

    The nexus approach to food, water and energy security in Asia is extremely important and relevant as the region has to feed two-third of the world's population and accounts for 59% of the global water consumption. The distribution pattern of food, water and energy resources have been shaped by the legacy effect of both natural and anthropogenic disturbances and therefore are vulnerable to climate change and human activities including land use/cover change (LUCC) and land management (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization). In this study, we used the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to examine the effects of climate change, land use/cover change, and land management practices (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) on the spatiotemporal trends and variability in water availability and its role in limiting net primary productivity (NPP) and food security in the 20th and early 21st centuries. Our specific objectives are to quantify how climate change, LUCC and other environmental changes have interactively affected carbon and water dynamics across the Asian region. In particular, we separated the Asian region into several sub-region based on the primary limiting factor - water, food and energy. We then quantified how changes in environmental factors have altered the water and food resources during the past century. We particularly focused on Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and water cycle (Evapotranspiration, discharge, and runoff) as a measure of available food and water resources, respectively while understanding the linkage between food and water resources in Asia.

  2. Climate change: Problems of limits and policy responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Present emission rates of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the other principle greenhouse gases (radiatively important gases (RIG's)) - methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons - exceed the capacity of the oceanic, terrestrial, and tropospheric sinks to absorb them. Consequently, their concentrations in the troposphere are increasing and will continue to increase so long as emissions exceed sink capacities. It is assumed that an indefinitely persistent gap between emissions and sinks of RIG's implies indefinite global warming and related changes in regional climates. The high monetary and environmental costs that would be imposed by global warming are discussed along with the changes in energy policy that are needed to insure that these high costs will not be past on to future generations

  3. A Practical Guide for Estimating Dietary Fat and Fiber Using Limited Food Frequency Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neale, Anne Victoria; And Others

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for estimating daily intake of dietary fat and fiber based on limited food frequency data. The procedure, which relies on National Food Consumption Survey data and daily consumption rates, can provide baseline estimates of dietary patterns for health promotion policymakers. (SLD)

  4. NPY receptor subtype specification for behavioral adaptive strategies during limited food access

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pjetri, E; Adan, R A; Herzog, H; de Haas, R; Oppelaar, H; Spierenburg, H A; Olivier, B; Kas, M J

    2012-01-01

    The neuropeptide Y (NPY) system in the brain regulates a wide variety of behavioral, metabolic and hormonal homeostatic processes required for energy balance control. During times of limited food availability, NPY promotes behavioral hyperactivity necessary to explore and prepare for novel food reso

  5. The Interconnected Challenges for Food Security from a Food Regimes Perspective: Energy, Climate and Malconsumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sage, Colin

    2013-01-01

    Recent experience of food price volatility in global markets encourages closer examination of the dynamics underlying the global food system and reveals a range of contingent factors. Meanwhile a common thread of many recent expert reports has emphasised the need to intensify agricultural production to double food output by 2050. Drawing upon a…

  6. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  7. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Hannah

    Full Text Available International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  8. Validation of Method in Microbial Limit Tests for Two Types of Health Foods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xihong Zhao

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available An order to discuss that whether the methods of total aerobic microbial count and absence bacterial test were appropriate in microbial limit tests for health foods hygiene. As the requirement of microorganism limits test and validation on the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2010, the microbial examination method of two kinds of health foods has been validated. It is found that vitamin B was antibacterial for Bacillus subtilis and Aspergillus niger. The results indicated the method in foods microbial limit test GB/T4789-2010 were not suitable for the microbial limit tests of health foods. It is suggested that setting more reasonable method by validation as well as referring to the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2010.

  9. The climate challenge: the limits of public policies; Le defi climatique: les limites des politiques publiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourg, D. [Universite de Technologie de Troyes, Centre d' Etudes et de Recherches Interdisciplinaires sur le Developpement Durable, 10 - Troyes (France)

    2003-07-01

    Can democratic societies organize the energy diet imposed by the prevention of climate change? What would be the difficulties to overcome? This challenge could not be met without changing the nature of public policies and without learning how to determine collectively new individual lifestyles, not separable from duties. (author)

  10. Climate Change and Groundwater-Implications for Global Food and Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M. D.; Earman, S.; Funk, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    total precipitation fall at temperatures just below freezing historically. Other areas with large-scale groundwater overdrafts, including parts of Northern Africa, Mexico, South Africa and Australia, are also areas where recent history and climate projections indicate declining precipitation amounts. Thus, many areas where climate change threatens to change and possibly diminish groundwater sources are also areas where massive groundwater overdrafts are being used to meet critical demands for irrigation and agriculture. Disruption of groundwater recharge in these areas would only hasten the overdrafts and eventual limits on groundwater-based irrigation supplies. The climate-change/groundwater nexus is likely adding significant new risks to food and water security globally.

  11. Climate Change and Food Security: The View from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2012-01-01

    Global satellite data provides information on land use, rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation vigor and crop yields. Process-based products allows transformation of these data into information that can be used to assess impact of weather on commodity prices and local economic health. Trends and impact of climate change

  12. Food irradiation, profits and limitations; Irradiacion de alimentos, beneficios y limitaciones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luna C, P.C

    1992-05-15

    The utility of the irradiation to overcome diverse problems of lost nutritious, it has been demonstrated in multiple investigation works, that its have confirmed the value and the inoculation of the irradiated foods. The quantity of energy applied to each food, is in function of the wanted effect. In this document a guide with respect to the practical application and the utility of the irradiation process in different foods, as well as the suggested dose average is shown. Among the limitations of the use of this technology, its are the costs and not being able to apply it to some fresh foods. (Author)

  13. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niiranen, S.; Yletyinen, J.; Tomczak, M.T.;

    2013-01-01

    Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed...... approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional...... biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future...

  14. The Impact of 850,000 Years of Climate Changes on the Structure and Dynamics of Mammal Food Webs

    OpenAIRE

    Hedvig K Nenzén; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara

    2014-01-01

    Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed...

  15. Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Manoj

    2016-08-01

    In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of

  16. Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Manoj

    2016-08-01

    In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of

  17. Managing Climatic Risks to Combat Land Degradation and Enhance Food security: Key Information Needs

    OpenAIRE

    P. K. Aggarwal; Baethegan, W.E.; Cooper, P.; Gommes, R.; Lee, B.; Meinke, H.B.; Rathore, L.S.; Sivakumar, M.V.K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the key information needs to reduce the negative impacts of weather variability and climate change on land degradation and food security, and identifies the opportunities and barriers between the information and services needed. It suggests that vulnerability assessments based on a livelihood concept that includes climate information and key socio-economic variables can overcome the narrow focus of common one-dimensional vulnerability studies. Both current and future clim...

  18. Examining cassava's potential to enhance food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent advances in the biofortification of cassava, a substantial yield gap and cassava's potential for increased productivity and its inherent potential to respond positively to globally increasing CO2 are synergistic and encouraging in an otherwise bleak global view of the future of food security ...

  19. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: resource efficiency and climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan

    2015-04-01

    The connections between climate and the water-food nexus are strong and economically significant in southern Africa, yet the role of observed climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations is poorly understood. In addition, as regional collaboration strengthens through the SADC (Southern Africa Development Community) and trade with other regions increases, it is important to understand both how climate variability affects productivity and how intra- and extra-regional trade can contribute to the region's capacity to deal with climate-related productivity shocks. We use international food trade data (FAOSTAT) and a global hydrological model (H08) to quantify the water resources embedded in international food trade across southern Africa and with the rest of the world, from 1986-2011. We analyze the impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic changes on agricultural trade and embedded water resources during that period. In particular, the effects of climate variability on trade flows and crop yields are estimated, to provide insights on the potential of trade as a collaborative adaptation mechanism.

  20. Weather Vulnerability, Climate Change, and Food Security in Mt. Kilimanjaro

    OpenAIRE

    Muamba, Francis; Kraybill, David S.

    2010-01-01

    This study estimates the impact of rainfall variation on livelihood in Mt. Kilimanjaro using the Ricardian approach to capture farmers’ adaptation strategies to cope with climate change risks. The data for the analysis were gathered from a random sample of over 200 households in 15 villages and precipitation from rainfall observation posts placed in each of the surveyed villages. The precipitation data provide information on the effect of moisture at critical months in the growing season. Due...

  1. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: water efficiency and climate signals

    OpenAIRE

    Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan

    2016-01-01

    Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in southern Africa is particularly high. The associated drought and flood risks, combined with a largely rain-fed agriculture, pose a challenge for water and food security in the region. As regional collaboration strengthens through the Southern Africa Development Community and trade with other regions increases, it is thus important to understand both how climate variability affects agricultural productivity and how food trade...

  2. NEW GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FOR AGRICULTURE, CLIMATE CHANGE, SUSTAINABILITY, AND FOOD SECURITY

    OpenAIRE

    Moon, Wanki; Koo, Won W.; Kim, Chang-Gil

    2011-01-01

    This article questions whether the WTO regime is the most appropriate institution for governing the global agriculture and trade in the wake of the problems that our world faces today. Specifically, climate change, potentially unsustainable agricultural practices, food insecurity in less developed countries (LDC), and expected imbalance in the global food demand and supply by 2050 are emerging as major challenges to humanity and the WTO while it is still struggling to resolve issues (related ...

  3. Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2014-07-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates. PMID:25154102

  4. Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2014-07-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.

  5. Achieving food security in the face of climate change: summary for policy makers from the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    John R Beddington; Asaduzzaman, Mohammed; Bremauntz, Fernandez A.; Clark, Megan E.; Guillou, Marion; Jahn, Molly M.; Erda, Lin; Mamo, Tekalign; Van Bo, Nguyen; Nobre, Carlos A.; Robert J. Scholes; Sharma, Rita; Wakhungu, Judi

    2011-01-01

    Business as usual in our globally interconnected food system will not bring us food security and environmental sustainability. Several converging threats – from climate change, population growth and unsustainable use of resources – are steadily intensifying pressure on humanity and world governments to transform the way food is produced, distributed and consumed.

  6. Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, W.; Cramer, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Battaglini, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2011-01-01

    Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of Region

  7. Impacts of the Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security, Traditional Knowledge and Agroecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Türkeş

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive model studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Furthermore, developing countries will suffer the most with a potential 9.1 per cent decline in agricultural output, for example with a considerable decrease of 16.6 per cent in Africa. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases, depending on emission scenarios and the assumptions on effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2 fertilization. One of the tools that would ensure the food security by making use of local sources and traditional knowledge is agroecology. Agroecology would contribute to mitigation of the anthropogenic climate change and cooling down the Earth’s increasing surface and lower atmospheric air temperatures, because it is mainly labour-intensive and requires little uses of fossil fuels, energy and artificial fertilisers. It is also necessary to understand the ecological mechanisms underlying sustainability of traditional farming systems, and to translate them into ecological principles that make locally available and appropriate approaches and techniques applicable to a large number of farmers.

  8. Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdous Ahmed

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD, which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia.

  9. Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi

    2014-01-01

    We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.

  10. Seasonal effects of Pacific-based climate on recruitment in a predator-limited large herbivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegel, Troy M; Mysterud, Atle; Ergon, Torbjørn; Loe, Leif Egil; Huettmann, Falk; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2010-03-01

    1. Climate is an important factor influencing the population dynamics of large herbivores operating directly on individuals or through its effect on forage characteristics. However, the seasonal effect of climate may differ between forage- and predator-limited populations because of a climatic influence on predation rates. The influence of climate on predator-limited large herbivores is less well known than on forage-limited populations. Further, the effect of Pacific-based climate on large herbivore populations has been rarely assessed. 2. We investigated the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), across different seasons, on recruitment in 10 populations (herds) of mountain-dwelling caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou L. in the Yukon Territory, Canada. These low-density populations occur in highly seasonal environments and are considered predator-limited with high neonatal calf mortality. Hence, in most years females do not spend resources through lactational support during the summer and resource intake is devoted to self-maintenance. We predicted that climate affecting environmental conditions at calving would have a strong effect on recruitment via its influence on predation rates. We also predicted that climatic conditions prior to conception could have an effect on recruitment through its influence on female fecundity. We modelled recruitment (n = 165) by seasonal PDO values using generalized linear mixed-effects models with herd-varying coefficients. 3. We found that recruitment variability was best explained by variation in winter climate (beta = 0.110, SE = 0.007) prior to birth (in utero) and May climate (beta = 0.013, SE = 0.006) at calving. There was little support for a pre-conception climate effect influencing female body condition and hence fecundity. These results confirm that recruitment in these populations is limited by predation and that forage-limitation is not a significant factor in their population dynamics. There was considerable

  11. The Paris Climate Agreement: Is it sufficient to limit climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    Brauers, Hanna; Richter, Philipp M.

    2016-01-01

    "The Paris Agreement is a monumental triumph for people and our planet" (UN News Centre, 2015). Statements, like this one from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, represent the global excitement shortly after the acceptance of the Paris Agreement and describe the outcome of the COP21 in December 2015 primarily as 'historical'. Twenty years after the UN's first COP (Conference of the Parties), the international community reached "the first universal agreement in the history of climate negotiatio...

  12. Impact of climate change on food security in southwest coastal region of bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines the impact of climate change on food security of the population residing in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Based on multistage random sampling technique, a survey was conducted to collect socioeconomic and food datasets of the people affected by extreme climate events in the country. The study found that climate change caused food insecurity in the region; it led to greater dependence on pond and rain water for cooking food and water intake. Catastrophe due to extreme weather events adversely affected the livelihoods and level of income. The severe cyclonic storms, Sidr (November 2007) and Alia (May 2009) severely affected the vulnerable people of this region, especially the extremely poor. The study came out with several coping strategies to address adverse effects of climate change, including rehabilitation with income and employment generating activities and development training; alternative livelihood adaptation practices; access to subsidized inputs and credits; introduction of crop calendar; conservation of arable and fellow land; and innovation of saline-tolerant, heat-resistant, moderate water consuming and short-rotation crops for the coastal people. (author)

  13. Managing Climatic Risks to Combat Land Degradation and Enhance Food security: Key Information Needs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aggarwal, P.K.; Baethegan, W.E.; Cooper, P.; Gommes, R.; Lee, B.; Meinke, H.B.; Rathore, L.S.; Sivakumar, M.V.K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the key information needs to reduce the negative impacts of weather variability and climate change on land degradation and food security, and identifies the opportunities and barriers between the information and services needed. It suggests that vulnerability assessments based o

  14. Reconfiguration of the immune system network during food limitation in the caterpillar Manduca sexta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamo, Shelley A; Davies, Gillian; Easy, Russell; Kovalko, Ilya; Turnbull, Kurtis F

    2016-03-01

    Dwindling resources might be expected to induce a gradual decline in immune function. However, food limitation has complex and seemingly paradoxical effects on the immune system. Examining these changes from an immune system network perspective may help illuminate the purpose of these fluctuations. We found that food limitation lowered long-term (i.e. lipid) and short-term (i.e. sugars) energy stores in the caterpillar Manduca sexta. Food limitation also: altered immune gene expression, changed the activity of key immune enzymes, depressed the concentration of a major antioxidant (glutathione), reduced resistance to oxidative stress, reduced resistance to bacteria (Gram-positive and -negative bacteria) but appeared to have less effect on resistance to a fungus. These results provide evidence that food limitation led to a restructuring of the immune system network. In severely food-limited caterpillars, some immune functions were enhanced. As resources dwindled within the caterpillar, the immune response shifted its emphasis away from inducible immune defenses (i.e. those responses that are activated during an immune challenge) and increased emphasis on constitutive defenses (i.e. immune components that are produced consistently). We also found changes suggesting that the activation threshold for some immune responses (e.g. phenoloxidase) was lowered. Changes in the configuration of the immune system network will lead to different immunological strengths and vulnerabilities for the organism. PMID:26747906

  15. Food Security Hotspots in India under Changing Climate and Growing Populatio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Global climate change, unprecedented population growth, and rapid urbanization have elevated the possibility of food and water shortages in many regions across the world. The likelihood of such shortages in the future is further exacerbated by the fact that increased greenhouse forcing and rapid growth in human population will continue for at least the next several decades. These socio-environmental changes will likely put some regions under enormous economic and environmental stress by forcing them to adapt to new conditions. India with its rapidly growing population and high rates of urbanization and industrialization is one such region whose agricultural resources will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of these changes. This study collectively reviews and analyses the possible impacts of climate change, population growth and resulting land use change on the availability of food and water in the coming decades for India. By analyzing and fusing a wide variety of existing data and research on the impact of land use change, population, and climate change, on water and food resources this study develops an understanding of the broader implications of each of the changes on food security in the region. In addition, the study focuses on the need to assess and quantify the combination of such impacts at a regional level and identify food security hotspots spatially across India that will help to narrow down regions in the country which will be severely affected and need priority adaptation and mitigation measures.

  16. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Adger, W Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  17. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louisa S Evans

    Full Text Available Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  18. Climate Effects on High Latitude Daphnia via Food Quality and Thresholds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Przytulska

    Full Text Available Climate change is proceeding rapidly at high northern latitudes and may have a variety of direct and indirect effects on aquatic food webs. One predicted effect is the potential shift in phytoplankton community structure towards increased cyanobacterial abundance. Given that cyanobacteria are known to be a nutritionally poor food source, we hypothesized that such a shift would reduce the efficiency of feeding and growth of northern zooplankton. To test this hypothesis, we first isolated a clone of Daphnia pulex from a permafrost thaw pond in subarctic Québec, and confirmed that it was triploid but otherwise genetically similar to a diploid, reference clone of the same species isolated from a freshwater pond in southern Québec. We used a controlled flow-through system to investigate the direct effect of temperature and indirect effect of subarctic picocyanobacteria (Synechococcus on threshold food concentrations and growth rate of the high latitude clone. We also compared the direct effect of temperature on both Daphnia clones feeding on eukaryotic picoplankton (Nannochloropsis. The high latitude clone had a significantly lower food threshold for growth than the temperate clone at both 18 and 26°C, implying adaptation to lower food availability even under warmer conditions. Polyunsaturated fatty acids were present in the picoeukaryote but not the cyanobacterium, confirming the large difference in food quality. The food threshold for growth of the high latitude Daphnia was 3.7 (18°C to 4.2 (26°C times higher when fed Synechococcus versus Nannochloropsis, and there was also a significant negative effect of increased temperature and cyanobacterial food on zooplankton fatty acid content and composition. The combined effect of temperature and food quality on the performance of the high latitude Daphnia was greater than their effects added separately, further indicating the potentially strong indirect effects of climate warming on aquatic food web

  19. Climate Effects on High Latitude Daphnia via Food Quality and Thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Przytulska, Anna; Bartosiewicz, Maciej; Rautio, Milla; Dufresne, France; Vincent, Warwick F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is proceeding rapidly at high northern latitudes and may have a variety of direct and indirect effects on aquatic food webs. One predicted effect is the potential shift in phytoplankton community structure towards increased cyanobacterial abundance. Given that cyanobacteria are known to be a nutritionally poor food source, we hypothesized that such a shift would reduce the efficiency of feeding and growth of northern zooplankton. To test this hypothesis, we first isolated a clone of Daphnia pulex from a permafrost thaw pond in subarctic Québec, and confirmed that it was triploid but otherwise genetically similar to a diploid, reference clone of the same species isolated from a freshwater pond in southern Québec. We used a controlled flow-through system to investigate the direct effect of temperature and indirect effect of subarctic picocyanobacteria (Synechococcus) on threshold food concentrations and growth rate of the high latitude clone. We also compared the direct effect of temperature on both Daphnia clones feeding on eukaryotic picoplankton (Nannochloropsis). The high latitude clone had a significantly lower food threshold for growth than the temperate clone at both 18 and 26°C, implying adaptation to lower food availability even under warmer conditions. Polyunsaturated fatty acids were present in the picoeukaryote but not the cyanobacterium, confirming the large difference in food quality. The food threshold for growth of the high latitude Daphnia was 3.7 (18°C) to 4.2 (26°C) times higher when fed Synechococcus versus Nannochloropsis, and there was also a significant negative effect of increased temperature and cyanobacterial food on zooplankton fatty acid content and composition. The combined effect of temperature and food quality on the performance of the high latitude Daphnia was greater than their effects added separately, further indicating the potentially strong indirect effects of climate warming on aquatic food web processes. PMID

  20. Feeding strategy of wild herbivores in habitats of limited food resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Kamler

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available In mountain environment of the Jeseníky Mts., we studied the botanical composition and quality of diets of red deer, roe deer and chamois as well as utilization of their food supply. The data were collected from two localities of different altitudes and food supply. The locality on summits was covered mostly with grasses in herb layer and inhabited by chamois and red deer, while in the lower locations raspberry, forbs and broadleaved tree was abundant and red and roe deer were presented. The aim of the study was to analyze a feeding strategy of three ungulate species in mountain habitats with limited food supply and to deduce implications to management of their populations. (1 Botanic composition of the ungulate food was influenced not only by their foraging specialisation but also food supply was very important. Red deer consumed grasses (more than 90 percent of volume on the summit in growing season while forbs and browse were presented in substantial amount in its diet in lower altitudes. (2 The food quality based on nitrogen content was higher in general in roe deer than in the others ungulates but during late winter the roe deer consumed the diet based on spruce needles of very low quality. The quality of red deer diet was lower in the summit area (grassy habitats than at foot hills where the food supply was more various. (3 The roe deer distribution can be restricted by absence of high quality food resources in ground vegetation while red deer and chamois can use food of lower quality (grasses. (5 Winter is a critical period for all study species when the food supply is a worst quality and the ungulate diets were similar and the possibility of competition for limited resources increase.

  1. Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Water Scarcity—Physical Limits, Sectoral Constraints, and Policy Imperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher A. Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life-cycle impacts of thermoelectric generation and biofuel production, and freshwater availability and sectoral allocations from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. Emerging, energy-related water scarcity flashpoints include the world’s largest, most diversified economies (Brazil, India, China, and USA among others, while physical water scarcity continues to pose limits to energy development in the Middle East and small-island states. Findings include the following: (a technological obstacles to alleviate water scarcity driven by energy demand are surmountable; (b resource conservation is inevitable, driven by financial limitations and efficiency gains; and (c institutional arrangements play a pivotal role in the virtuous water-energy-climate cycle. We conclude by making reference to coupled energy-water policy alternatives including water-conserving energy portfolios, intersectoral water transfers, virtual water for energy, hydropower tradeoffs, and use of impaired waters for energy development.

  2. Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

    2016-07-01

    The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

  3. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Rivington

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and the availability of clean water, hence threatening human health, livelihoods and ultimately societal stability. Degradation also increases the vulnerability of populations to the consequences of natural disasters and climate change impacts. With 10 million people dying from hunger each year, the linkages between ecosystems and food security are important to recognize. Though we all depend on ecosystems for our food and water, about seventy per cent of the estimated 1.1 billion people in poverty around the world live in rural areas and depend directly on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods. Healthy ecosystems provide a diverse range of food sources and support entire agricultural systems, but their value to food security and sustainable livelihoods are often undervalued or ignored. There is an urgent need for increased financial investment for integrating ecosystem management with food security and poverty alleviation priorities. As the world’s leaders worked towards a new international climate change agenda in Cancun, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010 (UNFCCC COP16, it was clear that without a deep and decisive post-2012 agreement and major concerted effort to reduce the food crisis, the Millennium Development Goals will not be attained. Political commitment at the highest level will be needed to raise the profile of ecosystems on the global food agenda. It is recommended that full recognition and promotion be given of the linkages

  4. Estimation of food limitation of bivalve larvae in coastal waters of north-western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, O.G.; Hendriks, I.E.; Strasser, M.;

    2006-01-01

    Marine invertebrate recruitment may be affected by food limitation during the pelagic larval life stages. In the present study, field data on abundance of bivalve larvae along with their prey (small phytoplankton) were examined to see whether they were consistent with predictions made by an energ...... assimilation rate averaged 7-26% of the maximum assimilation rate. Under the assumptions made for the present study, it is suggested that growth of larvae in north-west European waters is often food-limited. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...

  5. Rising oceans, climate change, food aid, and human rights in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlgren, Ingrid; Yamada, Seiji; Wong, Allen

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts are expected to produce more frequent, longer and unpredictable drought periods with further saltwater intrusion in the Marshall Islands. As a result, a significant return to traditional food cropping is unlikely. This will lead to an increased dependence on food aid, especially in the outer atoll populations. An examination of the nutritional content of food aid suggests it is likely to lead to poor health outcomes. Dependence on food aid has gradually increased over the past 70 years in the Marshall Islands, starting with population relocation because of war and nuclear testing and most recently because of climate change. The authors argue that the health impacts of the supplemental imported diet, combined with migration to population centers, may result in an even greater prevalence of chronic diseases, and exert pressures that lead to more communicable disease, further exacerbating the syndemics in the Marshall Islands. The authors conclude that food aid donors and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) government have human rights obligations to ensure that the people in the Marshall Islands have access to adequate nutrition. Accordingly, donors and the government should re-examine the content of food and ensure it is of sufficient quality to meet the right to health obligations. PMID:25618915

  6. Sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply. Political and legal challenges of the 21th century; Nachhaltigkeit, Energiewende, Klimawandel, Welternaehrung. Politische und rechtliche Herausforderungen des 21. Jahrhunderts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haertel, Ines (ed.)

    2014-07-01

    The book on sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply as political challenges in the 21th century includes contributions on the following topics: sustainability and environment, energy and climatic change, agriculture and world food supply.

  7. Plant responses, climate pivot points, and trade-offs in water-limited ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M.

    2013-01-01

    Plant species in dryland ecosystems are limited by water availability and may be vulnerable to increases in aridity. Methods are needed to monitor and assess the rate of change in plant abundance and composition in relation to climate, understand the potential for degradation in dryland ecosystems, and forecast future changes in plant species assemblages. I employ nearly a century of vegetation monitoring data from three North American deserts to demonstrate an approach to determine plant species responses to climate and critical points over a range of climatic conditions at which plant species shift from increases to decreases in abundance (climate pivot points). I assess these metrics from a site to regional scale and highlight how these indicators of plant performance can be modified by the physical and biotic environment. For example, shrubs were more responsive to drought and high temperatures on shallow soils with limited capacity to store water and fine-textured soils with slow percolation rates, whereas perennial grasses were more responsive to precipitation in sparse shrublands than in relatively dense grasslands and shrublands, where competition for water is likely more intense. The responses and associated climate pivot points of plant species aligned with their lifespan and structural characteristics, and the relationship between responses and climate pivot points provides evidence of the trade-off between the capacity of a plant species to increase in abundance when water is available and its drought resistance.

  8. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. PMID:26974571

  9. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas.

  10. Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2010-01-01

    Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

  11. NPY receptor subtype specification for behavioral adaptive strategies during limited food access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pjetri, E; Adan, R A; Herzog, H; de Haas, R; Oppelaar, H; Spierenburg, H A; Olivier, B; Kas, M J

    2012-02-01

    The neuropeptide Y (NPY) system in the brain regulates a wide variety of behavioral, metabolic and hormonal homeostatic processes required for energy balance control. During times of limited food availability, NPY promotes behavioral hyperactivity necessary to explore and prepare for novel food resources. As NPY can act via 5 different receptor subtypes, we investigated the path through which NPY affects different behavioral components relevant for adaptation to such conditions. We tested NPY Y1 and Y2 receptor knockout mice and their wild-type littermate controls in a daily scheduled limited food access paradigm with unlimited access to running wheel. Here we show that NPY Y1 receptor deficient mice lack the expression of appetitive behavior and that NPY Y2 receptors control the level of hyperactive behavior under these conditions. Thus, receptor specificity determines the differential expression of NPY-mediated behavioral adaptations to overcome a negative energy status.

  12. The Water – Energy – Food Nexus and Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holtermann Talin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This report explores the exposure and vulnerability of Korea and the Southern African region to climate-driven impacts in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF nexus. It presents the building of ecological networks as a mean to address climate change - induced alterations of ecosystems and the consequences for humans and nature. Reducing the asymmetry between price and value of water resources is identified as an essential aspect to enable sound resource management use decisions. The report highlights the need for comprehensive tools which assist decision makers in dealing with the complexity of WEF nexus interrelations and facilitate sustainable resource management.

  13. Asssociations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited inc...

  14. Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...

  15. Pet Food Palatability Evaluation: A Review of Standard Assay Techniques and Interpretation of Results with a Primary Focus on Limitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory C. Aldrich

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The pet food industry continues to grow steadily as a result of new innovative products. Quality control and product development tests for pet foods are typically conducted through palatability testing with dogs and cats. Palatability is the measure of intake of a food that indicates acceptance or the measure of preference of one food over another. Pet food palatability is most commonly measured using a single-bowl or a two-bowl assay. While these tests answer some questions about the animals’ perception of the food, there are many limitations as well. This review addresses some of these limitations and indicates opportunities for future research.

  16. Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

    2016-01-01

    Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)-despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species' elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

  17. Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie A Harsch

    Full Text Available Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations-despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward. To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year. This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species' elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

  18. Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

    2016-01-01

    Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)–despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species’ elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change. PMID:27447834

  19. An Evaluation of Effect of Climate Change on Food Security of Rural Households in Cross River State, Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Emaziye, P. O.; Okoh, R. N.; Ike, P. C.

    2013-01-01

    The study focused on the linkage between climate change and food security of rural households in Cross River state. The specific objectives are to ascertain the level of food security of rural households and impacts of climate change factors on the food security of rural households. Cross River State is located within Latitude 05°13’ 26’’ North and longitude 08° 17’ 44’’ East with an estimated population of 2.888,966 persons. The state is a coastal area usually affected by climate events (flo...

  20. Food Poverty, Climate Change and Land Access in central Uganda: A focus on low-income women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nambuanyi, Lekunze Ransom

    2014-01-01

    Abstract: This concept paper presents part of a work in progress on a participatory action research project that seeks to investigate the interrelated effects of climate change, agricultural practices and land tenure systems on women’s food security in central Uganda. We examine policy implications...... security; climate change; women; land rights; adaptive capacity...... insecurity. While most Ugandans depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, it is important to recognize that access to land by women and climate factors are central to the question of food security in Uganda. However, a review of the state-of-the-art in food security in this region demonstrates that policy...

  1. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Farm-level Efficiency in Food Crop Production in Southwestern, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otitoju, MA.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Food crop yields depend largely on prevailing climate conditions, especially in Africa, where rain-fed agriculture predominate. The extent to which climate impacts are felt depends principally on the adaptation measures used by farmers. This study focused on the effect of climate change adaptation strategies on farm-level technical efficiency. The study used primary data collected from 360 randomly selected farmers in Southwest Nigeria. Cobb-Douglass stochastic frontier production model was used to analyse the data. Multiple cropping, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates, mulching and cover cropping were the major climate change adaptation strategies employed by the farmers. While land fragmentation and multiple planting dates had significant positive relationships, years of climate change awareness and social capital had significant inverse relationships, with technical inefficiency. This may be because while land fragmentation may hinder farm mechanization, multiple planting dates may increase the monotonousness and drudgery of farming. On the other hand, social capital and climate change awareness could help ameliorate the effects of, particularly, land fragmentation through resource pooling. It is therefore recommended that the farmers be encouraged to form cooperative societies so as to leverage their resource status through collective efforts.

  2. Climate change and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentham, Graham; Langford, Ian H.

    1995-06-01

    In recent years there have been several spells of high temperatures providing analogues for the conditions that might become more common as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Statistical models were developed of the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures and these were then used to provide estimates of the possible effects of future warmer summers. Routinely collected data on the number of reported cases of food poisoning were analysed for the years 1982 1991. Regression analysis was used to establish the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures of the same and the previous month. Published scenarios for future temperatures were applied to these statistical models to provide estimates of the possible impacts of warmer conditions. The monthly incidence of food poisoning was found to be significantly associated with the temperature of the same and of the previous month with the latter having the stronger effect. Using published data on the relationship between reported and actual numbers of cases of food poisoning, it is estimated that annually there might be an additional 179 000 cases of food poisoning by the year 2050 as a result of climate change. The observed relationship with the same month's temperature underlines the need for improvements in storage, preparation and hygiene close to the point of consumption. However, there was a much stronger relationship with the temperature of the previous month, indicating the importance of conditions earlier in the food production process. Improvements in areas such as animal husbandry and slaughtering may also be necessary to avoid the adverse effects of a warmer climate.

  3. Sustainable plant protection for increased food security in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Glinwood, Robert; Birkett, Mike; Kumar, Savitri; Bandara, PB; Ninkovic, Velemir; Pettersson, Jan

    2008-01-01

    The global climate is changing. Rising temperatures in temperate regions are making headlines, but there are a host of changes that may have even greater impact on a global scale, particularly in regions where food security is already delicately balanced. Rising sea levels, changing patterns of rainfall, availability of water and increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are all likely to affect the biotic environment upon which we depend.

  4. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Mike Rivington; Richard Tingem Munang; Ibrahim Thiaw

    2011-01-01

    This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and th...

  5. Pesticide food safety standards as companions to tolerances and maximum residue limits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Carl K Winter; Elizabeth A Jara

    2015-01-01

    Alowable levels for pesticide residues in foods, known as tolerances in the US and as maximum residue limits (MRLs) in much of the world, are widely yet inappropriately perceived as levels of safety concern. A novel approach to develop scientiifcaly defensible levels of safety concern is presented and an example to determine acute and chronic pesticide food safety standard (PFSS) levels for the fungicide captan on strawberries is provided. Using this approach, the chronic PFSS level for captan on strawberries was determined to be 2000 mg kg–1 and the acute PFSS level was determined to be 250 mg kg–1. Both levels are far above the existing tolerance and MRLs that commonly range from 3 to 20 mg kg–1, and provide evidence that captan residues detected at levels greater than the tolerance or MRLs are not of acute or chronic health concern even though they represent violative residues. The beneifts of developing the PFSS approach to serve as a companion to existing tolerances/MRLs include a greater understanding concerning the health signiifcance, if any, from exposure to violative pesticide residues. In addition, the PFSS approach can be universaly applied to al potential pesticide residues on al food commodities, can be modiifed by speciifc jurisdictions to take into account differences in food consumption practices, and can help prioritize food residue monitoring by identifying the pesticide/commodity combinations of the greatest potential food safety concern and guiding development of ifeld level analytical methods to detect pesticide residues on prioritized pesticide/commodity combinations.

  6. Shining India?: Assessing and addressing the risks from an unsustainable trajectory of climate, water, food, energy and income inequity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    Climate and demographics are primary drivers of regional resource sustainability. In today's global economy, increasing trade has provided a mechanism to alleviate regional stresses. However, increasing regional income promotes consumption, aggravating regional and global resource pressures. South Asia, has the highest population density at a sub-continent scale. Given its monsoonal climate, and high intensity of agriculture it faces perhaps the most severe population weighted water stress in the world. Rapidly declining groundwater tables and the associated high energy use for pumping for irrigated agriculture translate into unsustainable energy imports and expenditure that contributed to the two largest blackouts in global history in summer 2012. Access to water has been progressively declining for both rural and urban populations for the last 3 decades. The increasing energy imports and poor grid reliability translate into limits to the growth of manufacturing and exports of goods and services. The growing income inequity within the population and across national borders, and the impacts of floods and droughts on access to water, food and energy collectively suggest a very high risk for social unrest and a conflict flashpoint. I present a scenario analysis that establishes this case for the emergence of internal and external strife in the region as an outcome of the current resource and natural disaster management policies in the region. Prospects for strategic policy changes for water and energy management and the design of a food procurement and distribution system that could lead to a better future are discussed.

  7. The Empowerment Strategy for The Food Crop Farmers in Anticipating The Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efriyani Sumastuti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In Indonesia, the climate change and the global warming like changes in the pattern and distribution of the rainfall give impacts on agricultural production at large, especially in the food crops. These also cause droughts, floods, landslides, forest fires, rising temperatures in urban areas, and rising sea levels. The above impacts are felt by the farmers because those can lead to a decrease in production even the crop failure. This research aims to develop an empowerment strategy of the food crop farmers in anticipating the climate change in Central Java. The data used is the primary data obtained through in-depth interviews with key-person and the Focus Group Discussion (FGD. The Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP is conducted to determine the program priorities and strate gies. The result of research shows that anticipating the climate change should be synergistically conducted in four aspects: human resources, technology, institutional and production, by involving various groups in the society. Various groups can be grouped into academics, businessmen / private sectors, government and community of food crop farmers / society.

  8. Climate warming strengthens indirect interactions in an old-field food web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Brandon T; Beckerman, Andrew P; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2009-09-01

    Climate change is expected to alter trophic interactions within food chains, but predicting the fate of particular species is difficult because the predictions hinge on knowing exactly how climate influences direct and indirect interactions. We used two complementary approaches to examine how climate change may alter trophic interactions within an old-field food web composed of herbaceous plants, grasshopper herbivores, and spider predators. We synthesized data spanning 15 years of experimentation during which interannual mean growing season temperature varied by 2 degrees C and precipitation by 2.5 cm. We also manipulated temperature within mesocosms to test the affect of temperature on primary production and strength of direct and indirect trophic interactions. Both approaches produced similar results: plant production was not directly affected by temperature or precipitation, but the strength of top-down indirect effects on grasses and forbs increased by 30-40% per 1 degrees C. Hence, the net effect of climate change was to strengthen top-down control of this terrestrial system. PMID:19769112

  9. Associations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited incomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yan

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited incomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of parental feeding styles and young children's evening food intake in a multiethnic sample of families in Head Start. Methods Participants were 715 Head Start children and their parents from Texas and Alabama representing three ethnic groups: African-American (43%, Hispanic (29%, and White (28%. The Caregivers Feeding Styles Questionnaire (Hughes was used to characterize authoritative, authoritarian (referent, indulgent or uninvolved feeding styles. Food intake in several food groups was calculated from 3 days of dietary recalls for the child for evening food intakes from 3 PM until bedtime. Results Compared to children of authoritarian parents, intakes of fruits, juice and vegetables were lowest among children of indulgent or uninvolved parents (1.77 ± 0.09 vs 1.45 ± 0.09 and 1.42 ± 0.11 cups as were intakes of dairy foods (0.84 ± 0.05 vs 0.67 ± 0.05 and 0.63+0.06 cups, respectively. Conclusion Findings suggest that permissive parent feeding styles like indulgent or uninvolved relate negatively to children's intake of nutrient-rich foods fruit, 100% fruit juice, vegetables and dairy foods from 3 PM until bedtime.

  10. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  11. Testing the environmental performance of urban agriculture as a food supply in northern climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldstein, Benjamin Paul; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Fernandez, John;

    2016-01-01

    The past decade has seen a renaissance of urban agriculture in the world's wealthy, northern cities. The practice of producing food in and around cities is championed as a method to reduce environmental impacts of urban food demands (reducing distance from farm to fork - ‘food miles’) whilst......, though opposite findings emerge when external energy inputs are significant. In this study we perform an environmental life cycle assessment of six urban farms in Boston, US producing lettuce and tomatoes, with conventional counterparts across six impact categories. Performance of urban agriculture...... conferring a number of ancillary benefits to host cities (runoff attenuation, urban heat island mitigation) and ex-urban environments (carbon sequestration). Previous environmental assessments have found urban agriculture to be more sustainable than conventional agriculture when performed in mild climates...

  12. 76 FR 54801 - Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a Subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding Limited, Grove City, PA...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-02

    ... Employment and Training Administration Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a Subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding... Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding Limited, Grove City, Pennsylvania... make the following certification: All workers of Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a subsidiary of...

  13. Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Loew

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture. The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

  14. Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O

    2016-01-01

    Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level.

  15. Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem

    2010-01-01

    Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

  16. Resting egg production induced by food limitation in the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drillet, Guillaume; Hansen, Benni W.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Three populations of the copepod Acartia tonsa, two from the Baltic Sea and one from the U.S. East Coast, were compared for resting egg production at conditions of saturating and limiting food availability. All three populations produced eggs that hatched within 72 h when incubated at 17°C...... (subitaneous eggs), but the two Baltic populations in addition produced eggs that hatched at a much slower rate, in the course of a month (delayed hatching eggs [DHE]). Such eggs were not produced by the U.S. population. The fraction of DHE increased when food was limiting. Females from a Baltic population...... that were incubated individually all produced subitaneous eggs, but about half the females consistently also produced DHE. Cold storage that mimicked boreal winter conditions synchronized the hatching of DHE after extended storage, indicating that spring hatching of DHE might seed the water column...

  17. The nuclear option in front of climate change. Associated risks, limitations and inhibition to alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the context of struggle against climate change, the reduction of fossil energy consumption and of the associated carbon dioxide production is considered as the main lever of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and nuclear energy is then a matter of debate as a massively available de-carbonated energy but presenting some unacceptable risks. In this synthesis, the authors first propose an overview of risks which cannot be separated from the use of nuclear energy: proliferation as a major, persistent and often ignored threat, a re-assessed and increasing risk of accident, and an accumulation of wastes, materials and sites. In a second part, they show that it has a limited efficiency on emission reduction: indirect but non-null CO2 emissions, influence of the energy mix, marginal contribution to emission management, declining energetic and climatic role, limited field of action. In the third part, the authors state that nuclear energy could be an inhibitor to the most performing solutions

  18. Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pörtner, Hans O; Knust, Rainer

    2007-01-01

    A cause-and-effect understanding of climate influences on ecosystems requires evaluation of thermal limits of member species and of their ability to cope with changing temperatures. Laboratory data available for marine fish and invertebrates from various climatic regions led to the hypothesis that, as a unifying principle, a mismatch between the demand for oxygen and the capacity of oxygen supply to tissues is the first mechanism to restrict whole-animal tolerance to thermal extremes. We show in the eelpout, Zoarces viviparus, a bioindicator fish species for environmental monitoring from North and Baltic Seas (Helcom), that thermally limited oxygen delivery closely matches environmental temperatures beyond which growth performance and abundance decrease. Decrements in aerobic performance in warming seas will thus be the first process to cause extinction or relocation to cooler waters. PMID:17204649

  19. Territorial resources, limits and strategies of local development processes and agri-food productions of quality

    OpenAIRE

    Severino Romano; Francesco Marangon; Roberto Polidori

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this work is to analyse the role that typical products can play in the local development process. Territorial resources involved, limits and strategies for their enhancement are analysed; this analysis will permit both to define the results that have been achieved since nowadays in the local development process and to point out future themes for the research in the field of agricultural economics. The typicality of an agri-food product regards qualitative characteristics that deriv...

  20. Climate change impacts on crop yield,crop water productivity and food security-A review

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yinhong Kang; Shahbaz Khan; Xiaoyi Xi

    2009-01-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive review of literature related to the assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity using climate,water and crop yield models.The existing studies present that climate change models with higher spatial resolution can be a way forward for future climate projections.Meanwhile,stochastic projections of more than one climate model are necessary for providing insights into model uncertainties as well as to develop risk management strategies.It is projected that water availability will increase in some parts of the world,which will have its own effect on water use efficiency and water allocation.Crop production can increase if irrigated areas are expanded or irrigation is intensified,but these may increase the rate of environmental degradation.Since climate change impacts on soil water balance will lead to changes of soil evaporation and plant transpiration,consequently,the crop growth period may shorten in the future impacting on water productivity.Crop yields affected by climate change are projected to be different in various areas,in some areas crop yields will increase,and for other areas it will decrease depending on the latitude of the area and irrigation application.Existing modelling results show that an increase in precipitation will increase crop yield,and what is more,crop yield is more sensitive to the precipitation than temperature.If water availability is reduced in the future,soils of high water holding capacity will be better to reduce the impact of drought while maintaining crop yield.With the temperature increasing and precipitation fluctuations,water availability and crop production are likely to decrease in the future.If the irrigated areas are expanded,the total crop production will increase;however,food and environmental quality may degrade.

  1. Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amikuzuno, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.

  2. Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Naustvoll, L.J.; Friocourt, Y.; Mengelers, M.J.B.; Christensen, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal gr

  3. Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian J Das

    Full Text Available Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1 drought stress, or (2 the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

  4. Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

    2016-08-01

    Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.

  5. Facing the limit of resilience: perceptions of climate change among reindeer herding Sami in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Furberg

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic area is a part of the globe where the increase in global temperature has had the earliest noticeable effect and indigenous peoples, including the Swedish reindeer herding Sami, are amongst the first to be affected by these changes.To explore the experiences and perceptions of climate change among Swedish reindeer herding Sami.In-depth interviews with 14 Swedish reindeer herding Sami were performed, with purposive sampling. The interviews focused on the herders experiences of climate change, observed consequences and thoughts about this. The interviews were analysed using content analysis. One core theme emerged from the interviews: facing the limit of resilience. Swedish reindeer-herding Sami perceive climate change as yet another stressor in their daily struggle. They have experienced severe and more rapidly shifting, unstable weather with associated changes in vegetation and alterations in the freeze–thaw cycle, all of which affect reindeer herding. The forecasts about climate change from authorities and scientists have contributed to stress and anxiety. Other societal developments have lead to decreased flexibility that obstructs adaptation. Some adaptive strategies are discordant with the traditional life of reindeer herding, and there is a fear among the Sami of being the last generation practising traditional reindeer herding.The study illustrates the vulnerable situation of the reindeer herders and that climate change impact may have serious consequences for the trade and their overall way of life. Decision makers on all levels, both in Sweden and internationally, need improved insights into these complex issues to be able to make adequate decisions about adaptive climate change strategies.

  6. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhaug, Halvard; Benjaminsen, Tor A.; Sjaastad, Espen; Magnus Theisen, Ole

    2015-12-01

    Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect relationship. The analysis reveals a robust link between weather patterns and food production where more rainfall generally is associated with higher yields. However, the second step in the causal model is not supported; agricultural output and violent conflict are only weakly and inconsistently connected, even in the specific contexts where production shocks are believed to have particularly devastating social consequences. Although this null result could, in theory, be fully compatible with recent reports of food price-related riots, it suggests that the wider socioeconomic and political context is much more important than drought and crop failures in explaining violent conflict in contemporary Africa.

  7. The CAMI Project - Weather and Climate Services for Caribbean Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotman, Adrian; Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Food security is major focus of Caribbean governments, with production being of particular concern. For the past three decades, Caribbean agriculture has been declining in relative importance, both in terms of its contribution to GDP and its share of the labour force. One of the problems Caribbean agriculture faces is the destructive impacts from weather and climate extremes. These include flood, drought, extreme temperatures, and strong winds from tropical cyclones. Other potential disasters, such as from pests and diseases attacks, are also weather and climate driven. These make weather and climate information critically important to decision-making in agriculture in the Caribbean region. In an effort to help reduce weather and climate related risks to the food security sector, The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, along with its partners the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and ten National Meteorological Services from within the Caribbean Community launched and implemented the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI). From 2010 to 2013, CAMI set out to provide relevant information to farmers, and the industry in general, for decision and policy making. The project is funded by the European Union through the Science and Technology Programme of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of Countries' (ACP). The overarching objective of CAMI was to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information, using an integrated and coordinated approach. Currently, this is done through (i) provision of relevant climate information appropriately disseminated, (ii) predictions on seasonal rainfall and temperature, (iii) support for improved irrigation management, (iv) the development of strategically selected weather-driven pest and disease models, (v) use of crop simulation models

  8. A methodology to assess water availability for food production under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Zeas, D.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.

    2012-04-01

    In many countries around the world, water demand for agricultural production already exceeds water availability. Such situation imposes a challenge for food production under future climate change conditions and indicates the need for a policy assessment in order to identify adaptation strategies in the water sector. This contribution provides a methodology to compute water availability for irrigation using a GIS-based model, called "Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment" (WAAPA). The model computes the net water availability for consumptive use for a river basin taking into account the regulation capacity of its water supply system and a set of management standards defined through water policy. The model was applied in 567 basins that cover the entire continental territory of Spain to estimate water availability under different climate change projections. The outputs of the PRUDENCE European project provide the information of the climate change scenarios. Two alternatives of management are proposed based on: reducing water allocation for agriculture, in order to obtain satisfactory water supply reliability or maintaining current water allocation for agriculture, but with the probability of reducing supply reliability. The results show equilibrium between water availability and agricultural demand in current conditions in the great majority of the River Basin Districts of Spain, nonetheless under climate change scenarios, the capability to satisfy the water requirements for agricultural production is significantly reduced, so as the management needs are necessary to mitigate the expected impacts to long term.

  9. Organic matter flow in the food web at a temperate heath under multifactorial climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Louise C.; Konestabo, Heidi S.; Maraldo, Kristine;

    2011-01-01

    of the microbial biomass, a likely major food source, and the climatic factors. Furthermore, the natural abundance δ13C of enchytraeids was significantly altered in CO2‐fumigated plots, showing that even small changes in δ13C‐CO2 can be used to detect transfer of carbon from primary producers to detritivores. We...... conclude that, in the short term, the climate change treatments affected soil organism activity, possibly with labile carbohydrate production controlling the microbial and detritivore biomass, with potential consequences for the decomposition of detritus and nutrient cycling. Hence, there appears...... amount of bioactive 15N label pool accumulated in the microbial biomass. The elevated CO2 concentration at the site for 2 years increased the biomass, the 15N enrichment and the 15N recovery in detritivores. This suggests that detritivore consumption was controlled by both the availability...

  10. Modeling intermediate product selection under production and storage capacity limitations in food processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilic, Onur Alper; Akkerman, Renzo; Grunow, Martin;

    2009-01-01

    In the food industry products are usually characterized by their recipes, which are specified by various quality attributes. For end products, this is given by customer requirements, but for intermediate products, the recipes can be chosen in such a way that raw material procurement costs and pro...... with production and inventory planning, thereby considering the production and storage capacity limitations. The resulting model can be used to solve an important practical problem typical for many food processing industries.......In the food industry products are usually characterized by their recipes, which are specified by various quality attributes. For end products, this is given by customer requirements, but for intermediate products, the recipes can be chosen in such a way that raw material procurement costs...... and processing costs are minimized. However, this product selection process is bound by production and storage capacity limitations, such as the number and size of storage tanks or silos. In this paper, we present a mathematical programming approach that combines decision making on product selection...

  11. The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedvig K Nenzén

    Full Text Available Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.

  12. Plant transpiration and groundwater dynamics in water-limited climates: Impacts of hydraulic redistribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiangyu; Liang, Xu; Lin, Jeen-Shang

    2016-06-01

    The role of groundwater in sustaining plant transpiration constitutes an important but not well-understood aspect of the interactions between groundwater, vegetation, the land surface, and the atmosphere. The effect of the hydraulic redistribution (HR) process by plant roots on the interplay between plant transpiration and groundwater dynamics under water-limited climates is investigated by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity Plus (VIC+) land surface model. Numerical experiments, with or without explicitly considering HR, are conducted on soil columns over a range of groundwater table depths (GWTDs) under different vegetative land covers, soil types, and precipitation conditions. When HR is not included, this study obtains transpiration-GWTD relationships consistent with those from watershed studies that do not include HR. When HR is included, the transpiration-GWTD relationships are modified. The modification introduced by HR is manifested in the soil moisture of the root zone. The mechanism of HR is explained by detailing the roles of the hydraulically redistributed water, the upward diffusion of soil water, and the daytime root uptake. We have found that HR is particularly important in water-limited climates under which plants have high transpiration demand. At the beginning stage of a dry period, HR modulates the severe impacts that climate has on plant transpiration. Only after a prolonged dry period, impacts of HR are lessened when the groundwater table drops below the depth of water uptake by roots and are diminished when plant transpiration is decoupled from groundwater dynamics.

  13. RELATION BETWEEN GLOBAL RADIATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN A HUMID TROPICAL CLIMATE OF WEST AFRICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chineke THEO CHIDIEZIE

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Obvious is the fact that globally the climate is changing. Solar energy and water availability are the key factors affecting agricultural productivity in Subtropical Africa. In this paper is presented the global radiation for Owerri, Nigeria (latitude 5.48oN, longitude 7.03oE between 1985-1997 which has a mean annual value of 76.17 W/m2 per day. With appropriate crop specie selection and management, food production, including poultry output can be boosted in this high solar radiation area. The introduction of solar egg incubator, solar manure dryer and brooder has been strongly advocated.

  14. Opportunities and challenges in enhancing food production and security in the context of climate change effects in sub Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Never Assan

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This discussion  explores the opportunities and challenges in enhancing  food production and security in the context of  climatic variability in Sub Saharan Africa. The promotion of sustainable use of plant and animal products with emphasis on satisfying basic human needs, improving people’s standard of living, enhancing food security and reducing poverty have taken a center stage in Sub Saharan Africa. However, the efforts in this direction  are being impacted negatively by climate change,  through animal and crop production which have not been spared due to the natural disasters and environmental challenges which have affected all regions of Sub Saharan Africa indiscriminately. Climate is a particularly important driver of food production systems performance at the agriculture end of the food chain. It can affect the quantities and types of food produced as well as production-related income especially for the poor resource farmers. In order to be able to adequately address food production and security in the context of climate,  there is need for the region to carry out thorough climatic vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Supporting research and  training of experts to carry out vulnerability and adaptation assessments on crop and  livestock production is crucial in order for respective  countries to develop climate change adaptation measures to meet the obligation on food production and  security. Sub Saharan Africa’s agro-ecological regions are variable and need to develop specific adaptive measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Due to the changing climatic conditions which the continent  has already witnessed many severe climatic induced vulnerability such as decline in rainfall amounts and intensity, reduced length of rain season and increasing warm and occasionally very hot conditions has affected food production and security. Crop and livestock production systems will need to adapt to higher ambient

  15. Research or Carbon Capture and Storage – How to limit climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    Kollenbach, Gilbert

    2014-01-01

    The consequences of the 2° C climate target and the implicitly imposed ceiling on CO2 have been analyzed in several studies. We use an endogenous rowth model with a ceiling and a carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to study the effect of the ceiling on the allocation of limited funds for R&D, CCS and capital accumulation. It turns out that the advantagenousness of CCS investments rise with the CO2 stock. If the gains of CCS, in terms of lower energy costs, outweigh the gains of R&D an...

  16. Agro-Climatic Characterization and Determination of Thermal and Pluviometric Limits in the Area of Debar, Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALBERT KOPALI

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Different climatic regimes play a determining role not just on the geographical and agronomic distribution of plants, but on the intensity of agricultural plant growth also. Climate affects the mass of structural features and especially the pace of plants development. Regarding climate Albanian territory is part of the sub-band subtropical western coast and it is divided into two climatic zones: Atlantic Mediterranean area and Continental Mediterranean area. But the microclimatic effects arising in our territory make the climate quite diverse. In a relatively small area major changes of climate elements are created, thus a variety of areas with different climatic characteristics and determining impacts on agricultural plant breeding are present. Knowing of the thermal and rainfall limits is important in the cultivation of agricultural plants; the lack of knowledge poses a risk to agricultural cultivations. On the other hand these limits must be seen closely linked to their dynamism and should be studied in relation to possible climate changes. In accordance with the climatic characteristics of agro-ecological zones, should be developed plant cultivation technologies which should take into account the different agricultural systems that are applied in these areas. This study takes into consideration for agro-climatic characterization a developed agricultural area, that of Debar, in the northeast of Albania.

  17. Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Ruhul Amin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The crops that we grow for food need specific climatic conditions to show better performance in view of economic yield. A changing climate could have both beneficial and harmful effects on crops. Keeping the above view in mind, this study is undertaken to investigate the impacts of climate change (viz. changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine on the yield and cropping area of four major food crops (viz. Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat in Bangladesh. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard error (HAC and feasible generalized least square (FGLS methods were used to determine the climate-crop interrelations using national level time series data for the period of 1972–2010. Findings revealed that the effects of all the climate variables have had significant contributions to the yield and cropping area of major food crops with distinct variation among them. Maximum temperature statistically significantly affected all the food crops’ yield except Aus rice. Maximum temperature also insignificantly affected cropping area of all the crops. Minimum temperature insignificantly affected Aman rice but benefited other three crops’ yield and cropping area. Rainfall significantly benefitted cropping area of Aus rice, but significantly affected both yield and cropping area of Aman rice. Humidity statistically positively contributed to the yield of Aus and Aman rice but, statistically, negatively influenced the cropping area of Aus rice. Sunshine statistically significantly benefitted only Boro rice yield. Overall, maximum temperature adversely affected yield and cropping area of all the major food crops and rainfall severely affected Aman rice only. Concerning the issue of climate change and ensuring food security, the respective authorities thus should give considerable attention to the generation, development and extension of drought (all major food crops and flood (particularly Aman

  18. Understanding climate processes in the Murray-Darling Basin: utility and limitations for natural resources management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. E. Gallant

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Ocean-atmosphere processes causing variations in the climate of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin (MDB occur on time scales from days to centuries, all are important, and none are likely to act in isolation. Instead, interactions between all hydroclimatic drivers, on multiple time scales, are likely to have caused the variations observed in MDB instrumental records. The source and relative importance of each climate driver varies due to the geographic spread of the Basin from the subtropics to the middle latitudes. Such differences were highlighted during the period from 1997–2010 when the southern MDB experienced prolonged and severe dry conditions, while decadal-scale rainfall in the northern MDB remained close to normal. Although recent studies have provided insights into possible mechanisms, the cause of this recent drying is still uncertain. To this end, this paper addresses the current state of knowledge about the processes causing climate variations in the MDB and the utility and limitations of this knowledge for natural resources management.

  19. Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

  20. POLICIES FOR LIMITING CLIMATE CHANGE AND DIRECTIONS FOR THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAUL CALANTER

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The success in achieving the Europe 2020 national objectives depends on the implementation at national level of structural reforms needed to accelerate a growth that is smart, sustainable and favourable to inclusion. The national reform programmes (PNR represent an obligation for each Member State to “translate” at national level the Europe 2020 objectives. In the Romanian National Reform Programme were established, among other priorities, the improvement of the quality of life through sustainable management of renewable resources and mitigation of climate change effects, increasing the energy efficiency, the management of natural resources and pollution reduction. In this paper there will be analyzed the general objectives of the climate change limitation and combating, the strategies to reduce climate change, implemented at the global, european and national level, and also directions for development of the electricity sector. In terms of global strategies, the main measures adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and through the major Conferences of Parties will be analyzed. At the European level, will be examined the Community objectives relating to the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions and the adopted measures to meet the proposed targets, and at the national level there will be evaluated the measures through which Romania implements the policies set at the global and community level. Regarding the directions of development of the energy sector at the European level there will be exposed and analyzed the measures imposed by the European Commission and the Member States, and at the national level, the main directions for action of the energy sector in Romania.

  1. Exposure to a heat wave under food limitation makes an agricultural insecticide lethal: a mechanistic laboratory experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinh, Khuong Van; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2016-01-01

    Extreme temperatures and exposure to agricultural pesticides are becoming more frequent and intense under global change. Their combination may be especially problematic when animals suffer food limitation. We exposed Coenagrion puella damselfly larvae to a simulated heat wave combined with food l...

  2. Larval growth in the dominant polychaete Polydora ciliata is food-limited in a eutrophic Danish estuary (Isefjord)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Troels Møller; Almeda, Rodrigo; Fotel, Frank Lech;

    2010-01-01

    Food limitation in larval growth of the spionid polychaete Polydora ciliata was examined in a typical eutrophic estuary, Isefjord, in Denmark. In the field, food availability and the energetic requirements of the P. ciliata larval population were measured during 2 different periods in 2004 and 20...

  3. Quantitative genetic analysis of responses to larval food limitation in a polyphenic butterfly indicates environment- and trait-specific effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saastamoinen, M.; Brommer, J.E.; Brakefield, P.M.; Zwaan, B.J.

    2013-01-01

    Different components of heritability, including genetic variance (VG), are influenced by environmental conditions. Here, we assessed phenotypic responses of life-history traits to two different developmental conditions, temperature and food limitation. The former represents an environment that defin

  4. Benthic Foraminifera, Food in the Deep Sea, and Limits to Bentho-Pelagic Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, E.; Boscolo-Galazzo, F.; Arreguin-Rodrigu, G. J.; Ortiz, S.; Alegret, L.

    2015-12-01

    The deep-sea is the largest habitat on Earth, contains highly diverse biota, but is very little known. Many of its abundant benthic biota (e.g., nematodes) are not preserved in the fossil record. Calcareous and agglutinated benthic foraminifera (unicellular eukaryotes, Rhizaria; efficient dispersers) and ostracodes (Animalia, Crustacea; non-efficient dispersers) are the most common organisms providing a fossil record of deep-sea environments. Very little food is supplied to the deep-sea, because organic matter produced by photosynthesis is largely degraded before it arrives at the seafloor. Only a few % of organic matter is carried to the ocean bottom by 'marine snow', with its particle size and behavior in the water column controlled by surface ecosystem structure, including type of dominant primary producers (diatoms, cyanobacteria). Food supply and its seasonality are generally seen as the dominant control on benthic assemblages (combined with oxygenation), providing bentho-pelagic coupling between primary and benthic productivity. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages (composition and density) thus are used widely to estimate past productivity, especially during episodes of global climate change, ocean acidification, and mass extinction of primary producers. We show that some environmental circumstances may result in interrupting bentho-pelagic coupling, e.g. through lateral supply of organic matter along continental margins (adding more refractory organic matter), through trophic focusing and/or fine particle winnowing on seamounts (giving an advantage to suspension feeders), and through carbonate undersaturation (giving advantage to infaunal over epifaunal calcifyers). In addition, increased remineralization of organic matter combined with increased metabolic rates may cause assemblages to reflect more oligotrophic conditions at stable primary productivity during periods of global warming. As a result, benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates must be carefully

  5. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  6. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  7. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of climatic shifts on the production and processing of native and traditional crops in the Bolivian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alder eKeleman Saxena

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data was collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed-methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes a the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia; and b the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp., oca (Oxalis tuberosa, tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis, papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus, and charkay (llama or sheep jerky. Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Further, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. While these findings are drawn from a single case-study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, indigenous food systems. Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture, and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  8. Increasing Susceptibility of the Global Network of Food Trade to Climate Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, M. J.; Bose, S.; Chon, S.; Cook, B.

    2013-12-01

    Globalization of agriculture through trade liberalization has led to a dramatic transformation of the global network of food trade. The many benefits of this globalization include greater and more efficient global agricultural production, reduced variability of regional and global food supplies, and savings in global water resources. However, a potential hidden cost is an increasingly fragile network that is more susceptible to shocks or disruptions. Recent studies suggest that complex systems, like the global food trade network, may have architectural features typically associated with the existence of tipping points and susceptibility to collapse. Here we present evidence that this global agricultural network is increasingly connected, homogeneous, and in a state where network nodes (here countries) can flip between alternate states. We use production and trade data from 1986 to 2009 to identify shifts in national self sufficiency and to quantify changes in connectivity and homogeneity of the wheat, maize and rice trade. We then simulate the possible impacts of climate and crop-disease disruptions, which could potentially trigger a global food crisis through an export-restriction-induced domino effect. Changes in self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) over time for various country groups. The SSR is computed based on production and trade of cereals and starchy roots. (Top row) Time series of SSR for the Group of Eight + Five (G8+5) countries. The '+ Five' refers to the five leading emerging economies in the world. (Bottom row) Boxplots of average SSR over two periods (1986-1990 and 2005-2009) for countries designated as 'Annex I' and 'Least Developed Countries' (LDC) by the United Nations.

  9. Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commonsâ€

    OpenAIRE

    Saeb Khresat; Mohammad R. Hamdan; Marwan Suifan; Ayman Suleiman; Mohammad Salahat; Jawad Taleb Al-Bakri; Tarek Kandakji

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of climate change and land use change on water resources and food security in Jordan. The country is dominated by arid climate with limited arable land and water resources, where the per capita share of water is less than 145 m 3 /year. The study focused on crop production and water resources under trends of anticipated climate change and population growth in the country. Remote sensing data were used to determine land use/cover changes and rates of urbaniza...

  10. 21 CFR 880.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 880.9 Section 880.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket...

  11. Importance of abiotic stress as a range-limit determinant for European plants: insights from species responses to climatic gradients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Normand, Signe; Treier, Urs; Randin, Christophe;

    2009-01-01

    Aim We examined whether species occurrences are primarily limited by physiological tolerance in the abiotically more stressful end of climatic gradients (the asymmetric abiotic stress limitation (AASL) hypothesis) and the geographical predictions of this hypothesis: abiotic stress mainly determin...... upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal species range limits, and the importance of abiotic stress for these range limits increases the further northwards and upwards a species occurs...

  12. Food limitation of sea lion pups and the decline of forage off central and southern California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClatchie, Sam; Field, John; Thompson, Andrew R; Gerrodette, Tim; Lowry, Mark; Fiedler, Paul C; Watson, William; Nieto, Karen M; Vetter, Russell D

    2016-03-01

    California sea lions increased from approximately 50 000 to 340 000 animals in the last 40 years, and their pups are starving and stranding on beaches in southern California, raising questions about the adequacy of their food supply. We investigated whether the declining sea lion pup weight at San Miguel rookery was associated with changes in abundance and quality of sardine, anchovy, rockfish and market squid forage. In the last decade off central California, where breeding female sea lions from San Miguel rookery feed, sardine and anchovy greatly decreased in biomass, whereas market squid and rockfish abundance increased. Pup weights fell as forage food quality declined associated with changes in the relative abundances of forage species. A model explained 67% of the variance in pup weights using forage from central and southern California and 81% of the variance in pup weights using forage from the female sea lion foraging range. A shift from high to poor quality forage for breeding females results in food limitation of the pups, ultimately flooding animal rescue centres with starving sea lion pups. Our study is unusual in using a long-term, fishery-independent dataset to directly address an important consequence of forage decline on the productivity of a large marine predator. Whether forage declines are environmentally driven, are due to a combination of environmental drivers and fishing removals, or are due to density-dependent interactions between forage and sea lions is uncertain. However, declining forage abundance and quality was coherent over a large area (32.5-38° N) for a decade, suggesting that trends in forage are environmentally driven.

  13. Territorial resources, limits and strategies of local development processes and agri-food productions of quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Severino Romano

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to analyse the role that typical products can play in the local development process. Territorial resources involved, limits and strategies for their enhancement are analysed; this analysis will permit both to define the results that have been achieved since nowadays in the local development process and to point out future themes for the research in the field of agricultural economics. The typicality of an agri-food product regards qualitative characteristics that derive from its tie with the territory, this tie becomes a relevant element for the differentiation of the typical product from the others. In this context, the typical product maintains all the specificities associated to its origin, involving also aspects related to the traditions and the culture of the territories, to the collective dimension and to the local knowledge. Consumers tent to look for good which are differentiated and to connect authenticity and local specificity of food with healthiness. Due to the strong socio-economic ties that typical products have with the territory, they play a crucial role in the economy of the local systems and can promote development in lagging areas.

  14. Sensitivity of reservoir storage and outflow to climate change in a water-limited river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, G.; Gao, H.; Naz, B. S.; Kao, S. C.; Voisin, N.

    2015-12-01

    During the past several decades, numerous reservoirs have been built across the world for a variety of purposes such as flood control, irrigation, municipal water supplies, and hydropower. Consequently, streamflow timing and magnitude are altered significantly by reservoir operations. In addition, the hydrological cycle can be modified substantially by a changing climate. Therefore, a distributed hydrological model which has an embedded reservoir component is essential for representing these effects in future water management planning strategies. In this study, a multi-purpose reservoir module was integrated into the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). The DHSVM model was selected because of its high spatial and temporal resolution and because of its explicit representation of the physical processes. Prescribed operating rules, which are designed to reduce flood risk and enhance water supply reliability, were adopted in this module. The integrated model was tested over a water-limited basin (i.e. the central Brazos River Basin, Texas). Both the calibration and validation results suggest that the model performed robustly at daily, weekly, and monthly levels. Subsequently, the effect of climate sensitivity on reservoir storage and outflow was assessed by perturbing precipitation within a range from -30% to 30% and temperature from -2 °C to 2 °C. Results suggest that both variables are more sensitive to precipitation than temperature. However, there are more uncertainties associated with future precipitation than temperature. It was also found that the sensitivities vary significantly by season. Enabled with the new reservoir component, the DHSVM model provides a platform for projecting future water availability estimations under flow regulation, climate change, and land cover/land use changes. We expect this integrated model to be beneficial for sustainable water resources management.

  15. Food Security Index and Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change on Rural Farming Households in Delta State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emaziye, P. O.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the food security status and the socio-economic effects of climate change on rural farming households in Delta State, Nigeria. The main objective of the study was to determine the food security status of the rural farming households in the state while the specific objective was to determine the socio-economic effects of climate change on rural farming households in the state. Multistage sampling procedure was used in the random selection of local government, communities and rural households for the research study. The data for the study were obtained with the aids of structured questionnaire survey randomly administered to rural farming households in the state. Food security index was used to determine the level of food insecurity (food security status among the rural households in communities that have been affected by flood and or other climate hazardswhile descriptive statistics was used to summarize the socio-economic effects and their food security status of the rural farming households in the state. Most respondents (65.10% were married with low annual income of N54,702 ($353 which is less than the poverty line of less than $1 (one dollar a day. Most rural farming households witnessed loss of investment on farm lands, lives and income respectively in the state. The study also reveals that rural farming households suffered ill health, such as malaria, water borne diseases and skin infections that were on the increase in the state. The study also revealed that majority of respondents was moderately food insecure. The study also recommends that Government planning agencies and policy makers should put into consideration these food insecurity situations in their planning and policy implementation to prevent future chronic food insecurity situation in the state.

  16. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

  17. Evaporation-limited tropical temperatures as a constraint on climate sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies of paleoclimate and modern observations indicate that evaporative effects limit thermal response in equatorial regions. We develop a latitude-resolved, steady-state energy balance model which incorporates the effect of an evaporative constraint on the variation of equatorial temperature with solar luminosity. For a diffusive model of surface heat transport the constraint requires the diffusion coefficient to vary with insolation. We find that the movement of the iceline with insolation is four times larger than in standard energy balance models with a constant thermal diffusion coefficient. This is a consequence of the global energy blanace which forces temperature changes to occur at high latitudes when they are evaporatively buffered at the equator. Nonlinear temperature-ice albedo feedback at high latitudes then amplifies the response leading to greater sensitivity in the vicnity of current climate

  18. Quantifying the effects of limited CO2 fertilization on future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erickson, D; Govindasamy, B; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Thompson, S L; Delire, C; Milovich, J; Wickett, M

    2004-04-06

    The response of the land biosphere to the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} is not fully understood. To evaluate the approximate upper and lower limits of land sequestration of carbon, we performed simulations using a comprehensive carbon-climate model. In one case the land biosphere is vigorously fertilized by added CO{sub 2} and sequesters carbon throughout the 21st century. In a second case, CO{sub 2} fertilization saturates in year 2000; in this case the land becomes an additional source of CO{sub 2} by 2050. The predicted atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration at year 2100 differs by 40% between the two cases. Current uncertainties preclude determination of whether the land biosphere will amplify or damp atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases by the end of the century.

  19. Complex agro-ecosystems for food security in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khumairoh, Uma; Groot, Jeroen Cj; Lantinga, Egbert A

    2012-07-01

    Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers world wide. Alternatively, cocultures consisting of assemblages of plant and animal species can support ecological processes of nutrient cycling and pest control, which may lead to increasing yields and declining susceptibility to extreme weather conditions with increasing complexity of the systems. Here we show that enhancing the complexity of a rice production system by adding combinations of compost, azolla, ducks, and fish resulted in strongly increased grain yields and revenues in a season with extremely adverse weather conditions on East Java, Indonesia. We found that azolla, duck, and fish increased plant nutrient content, tillering and leaf area expansion, and strongly reduced the density of six different pests. In the most complex system comprising all components the highest grain yield was obtained. The net revenues of this system from sales of rice grain, fish, and ducks, after correction for extra costs, were 114% higher than rice cultivation with only compost as fertilizer. These results provide more insight in the agro-ecological processes and demonstrate how complex agricultural systems can contribute to food security in a changing climate. If smallholders can be trained to manage these systems and are supported for initial investments by credits, their livelihoods can be improved while producing in an ecologically benign way. PMID:22957173

  20. Climatic variability and plant food distribution in Pleistocene Europe: Implications for Neanderthal diet and subsistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Bruce L.

    2010-03-01

    Contrary to their cold-adapted image, Neanderthals inhabited Pleistocene Europe during a time of great climatic fluctuation with temperatures ranging from as warm as present-day during the last interglacial to as cold as those of the last glacial maximum. Cold-adapted Neanderthals are similarly most often associated with the exploitation of large mammals who are themselves cold-adapted (mammoth, bison, reindeer, etc.). Cold, high-latitude environments are typically seen as lacking in plants generally and in plant foods in particular. Plant foods are therefore usually ignored and Neanderthals are increasingly being viewed as top carnivores who derived the vast majority of their diet from meat. Support for this hypothesis comes largely from stable isotope analysis which tracks only the protein portion of the diet. Diets high in lean meat largely fulfill micronutrient needs but can pose a problem at the macronutrient level. Lean meat can compose no more than 35% of dietary energy before a protein ceiling is reached. Exceeding the protein ceiling can have detrimental physiological effects on the individual. Neanderthals would have needed energy from alternative sources, particularly when animals are fat-depleted and lean meat intake is high. Underground storage organs (USOs) of plants offer one such source, concentrating carbohydrates and energy. USOs could also provide an important seasonal energy source since they are at their maximum energy storage in late fall/winter. Although Paleolithic sites are increasingly yielding plant remains, their presence is rare and they are often given only passing mention in Neanderthal dietary reconstructions. The complexity and number of potential wild plant foods, however, defies easy discussion. Native European wild edible plants with starchy USOs would have been potentially available throughout the Neanderthal range, even during the coldest periods of the Late Pleistocene.

  1. Exploring the energy-water-food-climate nexus for the Indian Economy in 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taheripour, F.; Hertel, T. W.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.

    2014-12-01

    The economy of India is expected to face serious environmental challenges over the coming decades. Population growth, coupled with economic growth of nearly 7%/year to 2030 will translate into strong growth in energy demands - particularly electricity. The electricity sector's claim on total available water could grow from 4% to more than 10% in India in 2030, if the use of wet cooling technologies persists (IGES 2013). Water-saving, dry cooling technologies are available for coal-fired power plants, but this requires significant investment and must be done at the time of construction. Growing water demands from electricity generation, when coupled with industrial, residential and commercial demands, are projected to result in water shortages for irrigation in some key river basins such as Indus, Ganges, Subernarekha, Krishna, and Chotanagpui (Rosegrant et al., 2013). The resulting pressure on agricultural production is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, which itself may increase demands for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to higher temperatures and more variable rainfall (AgMIP, 2013). In this paper we examine the impact of water scarcity on economic growth, food, and energy security in India using an enhanced version of the GTAP-AEZ-WATER model. We find that investments in water-saving technology in the electricity sector are less costly than developing new water supply. However, even when these technologies are implemented, we project shortfalls in water available for irrigated agriculture. These shortfalls result in the contraction of irrigated area and diminished food production relative to the unconstrained baseline. However, trade could help India to mitigate a portion of this pressure by importing more food products from water abundant regions. In addition, allowing for the trading of water within river basins helps to alleviate some of the consequences of water scarcity.

  2. The Household Economy Approach. Managing the impact of climate change on poverty and food security in developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. Seaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have severe effects on the populations of developing countries because many of these depend heavily on agriculture for income, have large impoverished rural populations which rely on agriculture for subsistence, and are financially and technically least equipped to adapt to changing conditions. Planning to target measures to support adaptation to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty and food insecurity requires methods of identifying vulnerable households. This paper describes an established approach to vulnerability assessment, the ‘Household Economy Approach’ (HEA and its potential application to the management of climate change in developing countries. The HEA is widely used by Governments and others, chiefly in Africa, for the assessment of household vulnerability to poverty and food security. HEA uses a model based on Amartya Sen’s entitlement theory and detailed social and economic data to simulate the impact of weather related, price, policy and other shocks on household income and food access, to provide information for decision making. In developing countries climate change will be experienced in terms of increased climate variability and an increased frequency of extreme events. HEA provides a way of managing the effects of year to year shocks to prevent impoverishment and the erosion of household resilience. It also provides the information needed to develop scenarios to support the design of policies to support longer term adaptation. HEA data has already been collected for large areas of Africa.

  3. Food webs patterns in species-poor insular lakes resemble climate-related patterns in continental lakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Nicolas; Amsinck, Susanne Lildal; Goncalves, Vitor;

    2015-01-01

    Space-for-time substitution studies (SFTS, e.g. latitudinal gradient analyses) are often used to unravel climate effects on lake biota, and have shown a reduction in size, changes in diet and more frequent reproduction of fish in warmer climates, with cascading effects such as lower zooplankton...... island groups with contrasting climates but similar seasonality: The Faroe Islands (cold; 6.5±2.8°C) and the Azores (warm; 17.3±2.9°C). We analysed community and food web structure using a stable isotopes approach investigating fish, macro-invertebrates, and zooplankton in 20 lakes. We found a smaller...... mean body size of fish in the Azorean lakes even if standardised by maximum length of the fish species present, suggesting a higher predation pressure on zooplankton and consequently higher phytoplankton abundance at the same nutrient levels. A triangular shape of the food web, with wider carbon range...

  4. Le défi climatique : les limites des politiques publiquesThe Climate Challenge: the limits of public policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourg, Dominique

    2003-06-01

    Can democratic societies organise the energy diet imposed by the prevention of climate change? What would be the difficulties to overcome? This challenge could not be met without changing the nature of public policies and without learning how to determine collectively new individual lifestyles, not separable from duties. To cite this article: D. Bourg, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).

  5. Climate change, food systems and population health risks in their eco-social context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, A J; Butler, C D; Dixon, J

    2015-10-01

    The establishment of ecological public health as crucial to modern public health is overdue. While the basic concepts have been gestating for decades, receptivity within broader public health has been limited. This position is changing, not least as the population-level impacts of climate change and, more broadly, of limits to growth are emerging from theory and forecasting into daily reality. This paper describes several key elements of ecological public health thinking. These include the 'environmental' risks to human health (often systemic and disruptive, rather than local and toxic) posed by climate change and other forms of adverse global environmental change. Closer recognition of the links between social and environmental factors has been urged--an 'eco-social' approach--and, relatedly, for greater co-operation between social and natural sciences. The authors revisit critics of capitalism who foresaw the global capture and transformation of ecosystems for material human ends, and their resultant despoliation. The perennial call within public health to reduce vulnerability by lessening poverty is more important than ever, given the multifactored threat to the health of the poor which is anticipated, assuming no radical strategies to alleviate these pressures. But enhanced health security for the poor requires more than the reconfiguring of social determinants; it also requires, as the overarching frame, ecological public health. PMID:25896548

  6. Estimating effects of tidal power projects and climate change on threatened and endangered marine species and their food web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, D Shallin; Greene, Correigh M; Good, Thomas P

    2013-12-01

    Marine hydrokinetic power projects will operate as marine environments change in response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We considered how tidal power development and stressors resulting from climate change may affect Puget Sound species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and their food web. We used risk tables to assess the singular and combined effects of tidal power development and climate change. Tidal power development and climate change posed risks to ESA-listed species, and risk increased with incorporation of the effects of these stressors on predators and prey of ESA-listed species. In contrast, results of a model of strikes on ESA-listed species from turbine blades suggested that few ESA-listed species are likely to be killed by a commercial-scale tidal turbine array. We applied scenarios to a food web model of Puget Sound to explore the effects of tidal power and climate change on ESA-listed species using more quantitative analytical techniques. To simulate development of tidal power, we applied results of the blade strike model. To simulate environmental changes over the next 50 years, we applied scenarios of change in primary production, plankton community structure, dissolved oxygen, ocean acidification, and freshwater flooding events. No effects of tidal power development on ESA-listed species were detected from the food web model output, but the effects of climate change on them and other members of the food web were large. Our analyses exemplify how natural resource managers might assess environmental effects of marine technologies in ways that explicitly incorporate climate change and consider multiple ESA-listed species in the context of their ecological community. Estimación de los Efectos de Proyectos de Energía de las Mareas y el Cambio Climático sobre Especies Marinas Amenazadas y en Peligro y su Red Alimentaria. PMID:24299085

  7. Non-limiting food conditions for growth and production of the copepod community in a highly productive upwelling zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escribano, Rubén; Bustos-Ríos, Evelyn; Hidalgo, Pamela; Morales, Carmen E.

    2016-09-01

    Zooplankton production is critical for understanding marine ecosystem dynamics. This work estimates copepod growth and production in the coastal upwelling and coastal transition zones off central-southern Chile (~35 to 37°S) during a 3-year time series (2004, 2005, and 2006) at a fixed shelf station, and from spring-summer spatial surveys during the same period. To estimate copepod production (CP), we used species-biomasses and associated C-specific growth rates from temperature dependent equations (food-saturated) for the dominant species, which we assumed were maximal growth rates (gmax). Using chlorophyll-a concentrations as a proxy for food conditions, we determined a size-dependent half-saturation constant with the Michaelis-Menten equation to derive growth rates (g) under the effect of food limitation. These food-dependent C-specific growth rates were much lower (food resources.

  8. Limited Evidence That Competitive Food and Beverage Practices Affect Adolescent Consumption Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vericker, Tracy C.

    2013-01-01

    Childhood obesity is emerging as a considerable public health problem with no clear antidote. The school food environment is a potential intervention point for policy makers, with competitive food and beverage regulation as a possible policy lever. This research examines the link between competitive food and beverage availability in school and…

  9. Legal Limits on Food Labelling Law: Comparative Analysis of the EU and the USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der E.L.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to explore to what extent freedom of expression should protect food businesses against government intervention with corporate communications on food labels. A functional comparative method was used to analyse the objective. It was found that expression on food labels s

  10. Present limits to heat-adaptability in corals and population-level responses to climate extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard M Riegl

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1-3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33-35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as "critically endangered". We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world's most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.

  11. Assessing the Potential and Limitations of Leveraging Food Sovereignty to Improve Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Fink Shapiro, Lilly; Wilson, Mark L.

    2015-01-01

    Food sovereignty has been defined as “the right of peoples to healthy and culturally appropriate food produced through ecologically sound and sustainable methods, and their right to define their own food and agriculture systems.” Human health is an implied component of this definition through the principle of healthy food. In fact, improved human health is commonly cited as a benefit of transforming food production away from the dominant practices of industrial agriculture. Yet, does the use of “ecologically sound and sustainable methods” of food production necessarily translate into better human health outcomes? Does greater choice in defining an agricultural or food system create gains in health and well-being? We elucidate the conceptual linkages between food sovereignty and human health, critically examine the empirical evidence supporting or refuting these linkages, and identify research gaps and key priorities for the food sovereignty-human health research agenda. Five domains of food sovereignty are discussed including: (1) use of agroecological management practices for food production, (2) the localization of food production and consumption, (3) promotion of social justice and equity, (4) valuation of traditional knowledge, and (5) the transformation of economic and political institutions and structures to support self-determination. We find that although there are many plausible linkages between food sovereignty and human health, the empirical evidence in support of the hypothesis that increasing food sovereignty yields improvements to human health is weak. We propose that a concerted effort to generate new empirical evidence on the health implications of these domains of food sovereignty is urgently needed, and suggest areas of research that may be crucial for addressing the gaps in the evidence base. PMID:26636062

  12. 21 CFR 884.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 884.9 Section 884.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG..., and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section...

  13. Effects of limited food intake and vitamin C supplementation on pancreatic glucagon and insulin in guinea pigs

    OpenAIRE

    B. Kaplan; Gönül, B.; Erdogan, D; Elbeg, S

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of limited food intake (LFI) (24, 48 and 120 h) and a single i.p. dose of vitamin C supplementation (500 mg/kg) on serum glucose and C-peptide levels, and pancreatic insulin and glucagon levels in guinea pigs. The highest serum glucose levels were found after vitamin C supplementation plus LFI for 48 h (LFI 48). Serum C-peptide levels were not significantly affected by food limitation (LFI 24, LFI 48, or LFI 120) as compared with controls, ...

  14. Soil erosion, climate change and global food security: challenges and strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    supply fails, global agriculture fails too, with obvious consequences. Accordingly, on grounds of stabilising the climate, preserving the environment, and ensuring the robustness of the global food supply, maintaining and building good soil, in particular improving its SOM content and hence its structure, is highly desirable. Those regions of the world that are significantly degraded are unlikely to support a massive population increase (e.g. Africa, whose population is predicted to grow from its present 1.1 billion to 4.2 billion by 2100), in which case a die-off or mass migration might be expected, if population control is not included explicitly in future plans to achieve food security.

  15. By how much would limiting TV food advertising reduce childhood obesity?

    OpenAIRE

    Veerman, J. Lennert; Van Beeck, Eduard F.; Barendregt, Jan J; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2009-01-01

    Background: There is evidence suggesting that food advertising causes childhood obesity. The strength of this effect is unclear. To inform decisions on whether to restrict advertising opportunities, we estimate how much of the childhood obesity prevalence is attributable to food advertising on television (TV). Methods: We constructed a mathematical simulation model to estimate the potential effects of reducing the exposure of 6- to 12-year-old US children to TV advertising for food on the pre...

  16. Migration of epoxidized soybean oil (ESBO) and phthalates from twist closures into food and enforcement of the overall migration limit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, G A; Jensen, L K; Fankhauser, A; Biedermann, S; Petersen, J H; Fabech, B

    2008-04-01

    Nineteen samples of food in glass jars with twist closures were collected by the national food inspectors at Danish food producers and a few importers, focusing on fatty food, such as vegetables in oil, herring in dressing or pickle, soft spreadable cheese, cream, dressings, peanut butter, sauces and infant food. The composition of the plasticizers in the gaskets was analysed by gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (GC-FID) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Epoxidized soybean oil (ESBO) and phthalates were determined in the homogenized food samples. ESBO was the principal plasticizer in five of the gaskets; in 14 it was phthalates. ESBO was found in seven of the food samples at concentrations from 6 to 100 mg kg(-1). The highest levels (91-100 mg kg(-1)) were in oily foods such as garlic, chilli or olives in oil. Phthalates, i.e. di-iso-decylphthalate (DIDP) and di-iso-nonylphthalates (DINP), were found in seven samples at 6-173 mg kg(-1). The highest concentrations (99-173 mg kg(-1)) were in products of garlic and tomatoes in oil and in fatty food products such as sauce béarnaise and peanut butter. For five of the samples the overall migration from unused lids to the official fatty food simulant olive oil was determined and compared with the legal limit of 60 mg kg(-1). The results ranged from 76 to 519 mg kg(-1) and as a consequence the products were withdrawn from the market.

  17. Effects of chemical stress and food limitation on the energy reserves and growth of turbot, Scophthalmus maximus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerambrun, E; Henry, F; Rabhi, K; Amara, R

    2014-12-01

    The objective of the present study is to examine the growth and energetic performance of juvenile turbot after exposure to contaminated sediment and during the subsequent recovery period with or without food limitation. We designed a two-step experiment by first exposing juvenile turbot to harbour sediment for 26 days and then transferring them to clean sea water with different frequencies of feeding for 35 days. Without food limitation, fish previously exposed to contaminated sediment compensated for weight, length and lipid reserve losses; we did not record any differences in size, Fulton's K condition index and triacylglycerol/sterol (TAG/ST) ratio after the 35-day depuration period compared to the reference fish. This result could be related to the compensatory growth mechanism observed in a wide range of fish species following a period of growth depression. With food limitation during the 35-day depuration period, recovery growth was not sufficient to restore length and weight values similar to the reference fish. Moreover, turbot previously exposed to contaminated sediment and subsequently fed twice or once a week exhibited extremely low TAG/ST ratios, but the reference fish submitted to the same restrictive feeding conditions did not. This study indicates that juvenile fish affected by chemical pollution can improve their biological performance if pollution events are followed by a period of abundant food. However, if pollution events occur during periods of food scarcity, e.g. in winter, storage of energy reserves will be compromised. PMID:25015714

  18. Carbon Markets and Beyond: The Limited Role of Prices and Taxes in Climate and Development Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Ackerman

    2008-01-01

    The climate policy debate has advanced from science to economics, with a growing focus on creating carbon markets and getting the prices right. This is necessary but far from sufficient for an effective and equitable response to the climate challenge. While market-oriented forces such as the IMF and the World Bank have focused almost exclusively on carbon markets, others, such as the Human Development Report and the Stern Review, have emphasized the need for complementary, non-market climate ...

  19. FOOD SECURITY IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu STANCIU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing world population, the limitation of the natural availability for food production, the climate issues and the food consumption need for modification imposed a continuous updating of the food security concept. Although Romania has sufficient natural resources, which may ensure, by means of proper exploitation, the population’s food needs, the lack of a unitary approach at the government level, materialized in the dependence on imports and in fluctuations in the agro-food production, leads to a re-evaluation of national food needs. National food security may be affected by a series of risks and threats, which appeared due to an imbalance connected with the availability, the utility and the stability of the agro-food sector, interdependent elements that must be functional. The present article proposes an analysis of food security in Romania, with a short presentation of the concept in an international context.

  20. Quantitative genetic analysis of responses to larval food limitation in a polyphenic butterfly indicates environment- and trait-specific effects

    OpenAIRE

    Saastamoinen, Marjo; Jon E Brommer; Paul M Brakefield; Zwaan, Bas J.

    2013-01-01

    Different components of heritability, including genetic variance (V G), are influenced by environmental conditions. Here, we assessed phenotypic responses of life-history traits to two different developmental conditions, temperature and food limitation. The former represents an environment that defines seasonal polyphenism in our study organism, the tropical butterfly Bicyclus anynana, whereas the latter represents a more unpredictable environment. We quantified heritabilities using restricte...

  1. Estimating the limits of adaptation from historical behaviour: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in a number of economic sectors [1]. The main analysis presents projections of climate impacts with an assumption of "no adaptation". Yet, historically, when the climate imposed an economic cost upon society, adaptive responses were taken to minimise these costs. These adaptive behaviours, both autonomous and planned, can be expected to occur as climate impacts increase in the future. To understand the extent to which adaptation might decrease some of the worst impacts of climate change, we empirically estimate adaptive responses. We do this in three sectors considered in the analysis - crop yield, crime, and mortality - and estimate adaptive capacity in two steps. First, looking at changes in climate impacts through time, we identify a historical rate of adaptation. Second, spatial differences in climate impacts are then used to stratify regions into more adapted or less adapted based on climate averages. As these averages change across counties in the US, we allow each to become more adapted at the rate identified in step one. We are then able to estimate the residual damages, assuming that only the historical adaptive behaviours have taken place (fig 1). Importantly, we are unable to estimate any costs associated with these adaptations, nor are we able to estimate more novel (for example, new technological discoveries) or more disruptive (for example, migration) adaptive behaviours. However, an important insight is that historical adaptive behaviours may not be capable of reducing the worst impacts of climate change. The persistence of impacts in even the most exposed areas indicates that there are non-trivial costs associated with adaptation that will need to be met from other sources or through novel behavioural changes. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate

  2. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    OpenAIRE

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    Background. The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute...

  3. The Dragons of Inaction: Psychological Barriers That Limit Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Most people think climate change and sustainability are important problems, but too few global citizens engaged in high-greenhouse-gas-emitting behavior are engaged in enough mitigating behavior to stem the increasing flow of greenhouse gases and other environmental problems. Why is that? Structural barriers such as a climate-averse infrastructure…

  4. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schleussner, Carl Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-01-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average

  5. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Tingem Munang; Ibrahim Thiaw; Mike Rivington

    2011-01-01

    This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production an...

  6. Climate Change and Agriculture: Can market governance mechanisms reduce emissions from the food system fairly and effectively?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garnett, Tara

    2012-05-15

    Climate and agriculture are inextricably linked: the climate affects agricultural production and is itself affected by agricultural emissions. Agriculture is responsible for 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. How agriculture is practised therefore has significant potential for mitigating climate change, for providing food security and for improving the livelihoods of millions of food producers worldwide. There is growing interest in the use of market governance mechanisms for tackling climate change by giving the financial incentives to make the kinds of changes that are required. But how widely are these mechanisms being used in agriculture, and are they effective in reducing emissions? What impact do they have on adaptation and other aspects of sustainable development? Are they able to balance the competing demands of producers and consumers, the environment and food security? The key messages emerging from this study are that economic measures have a vital part to play within this regulatory context, but they need to be designed with care. To be effective, emissions from food production and consumption must be addressed together. If not, emissions reduced in one region will simply be displaced elsewhere. A balance needs to be struck by applying a mix of approaches – regulatory, economic, voluntary, and information: no single measure will be effective in achieving emissions reductions on its own. 'Soft' measures, such as voluntary agreements and information have a part to play in providing an enabling context for action, but they must be backed up by 'harder' regulatory or economic measures. Regulation, in the form of a cap on emissions, is a prerequisite for other market governance measures to function well. To be effective, MGMs need to consider the social, cultural and economic context within which they operate.

  7. The Effects of Supplementary Food on the Breeding Performance of Eurasian Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus; Implications for Climate Change Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vafidis, James O; Vaughan, Ian P; Jones, T Hefin; Facey, Richard J; Parry, Rob; Thomas, Robert J

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which climate variation can drive population changes requires information linking climate, local conditions, trophic resources, behaviour and demography. Climate change alters the seasonal pattern of emergence and abundance of invertebrate populations, which may have important consequences for the breeding performance and population change of insectivorous birds. In this study, we examine the role of food availability in driving behavioural changes in an insectivorous migratory songbird; the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. We use a feeding experiment to examine the effect of increased food supply on different components of breeding behaviour and first-brood productivity, over three breeding seasons (2012-2014). Reed warblers respond to food-supplementation by advancing their laying date by up to 5.6 days. Incubation periods are shorter in supplemented groups during the warmest mean spring temperatures. Nestling growth rates are increased in nests provisioned by supplemented parents. In addition, nest predation is reduced, possibly because supplemented adults spend more time at the nest and faster nestling growth reduces the period of vulnerability of eggs and nestlings to predators (and brood parasites). The net effect of these changes is to advance the fledging completion date and to increase the overall productivity of the first brood for supplemented birds. European populations of reed warblers are currently increasing; our results suggest that advancing spring phenology, leading to increased food availability early in the breeding season, could account for this change by facilitating higher productivity. Furthermore, the earlier brood completion potentially allows multiple breeding attempts. This study identifies the likely trophic and behavioural mechanisms by which climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology and abundance may lead to changes in breeding phenology, nest survival and net reproductive

  8. Latitudinal variation in avian incubation attentiveness and a test of the food limitation hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalfoun, A.D.; Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    Avian incubation attentiveness has important fitness consequences through its influence on the number and quality of hatched young and energetic costs imposed on parents. Nest attentiveness is highly variable across species and geographical regions. We reviewed the literature and found a worldwide pattern that nest attentiveness of passerines is generally lower in south temperate and tropical regions than in north temperate regions. We also conducted a food manipulation experiment to assess the extent to which nest attentiveness may reflect proximate responses versus an evolved behaviour. We used the karoo prinia, Prinia maculosa, in South Africa, which has very low nest attentiveness (???49%) compared with that of many passerine birds. We provided supplemental food during early incubation to experimental females and compared nest attentiveness and on- and off-bout lengths of experimental and paired control females.??Nest attentiveness of females at food-provisioned nests was significantly higher than that of control females (57% versus 49%). Food-supplemented females also spent significantly less time off the nest than did control females, whereas mean on-bout lengths did not differ. However, mean nest attentiveness of food-provisioned females was still substantially below that of other similar bird species worldwide. Food can be an important proximate influence on parental care behaviour, but proximate influences of food do not explain broad latitudinal patterns of attentiveness. ?? 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

  9. Relationship between Evapotranspiration and Land Surface Temperature under Energy- and Water-Limited Conditions in Dry and Cold Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhigang Sun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Remotely sensed land surface temperature- (LST- dependent evapotranspiration (ET models and vegetation index- (VI- LST methods may not be suitable for ET estimation in energy-limited cold areas. In this study, the relationship of ET to LST was simulated using the process-based Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW model for energy- and water-limited conditions in Mongolia, to understand the differences in ET processes under these two limiting conditions in dry and cold climates. Simulation results from the SHAW model along with ground observational data showed that ET and LST have a positive relationship when air temperature (Ta is less than or equal to the temperature (Ttra above which plants transpire and have a negative relationship when Ta is greater than Ttra under the energy-limited condition. However, ET and LST maintain a negative relationship with changes in Ta under the water-limited condition. The differences in the relationship between ET and LST under the energy-limited and water-limited conditions could be attributed to plant transpiration and energy storage in moist/watered soil and plants. This study suggests that different strategies should be used to estimate ET under the energy-limited condition in dry and cold climates.

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

  11. Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Naustvoll, L-J;

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal...... as input for the other. In addition, statistical data analyses using existing national datasets from the study area were performed to obtain information on the relationships between Dinophysis spp. cell counts and contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins as well as on frequency of cereal...... was calculated. Results showed that, in general, climate change effects lead to advanced flowering and harvest of wheat, and increased risk of contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol. Blooms of dinoflagellates were estimated to occur more often. If the group of Dinophysis spp. behaves similarly to other...

  12. Non-limiting food conditions for growth and production of the copepod community in a highly productive upwelling zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escribano, Rubén; Bustos-Ríos, Evelyn; Hidalgo, Pamela; Morales, Carmen E.

    2016-09-01

    Zooplankton production is critical for understanding marine ecosystem dynamics. This work estimates copepod growth and production in the coastal upwelling and coastal transition zones off central-southern Chile (~35 to 37°S) during a 3-year time series (2004, 2005, and 2006) at a fixed shelf station, and from spring-summer spatial surveys during the same period. To estimate copepod production (CP), we used species-biomasses and associated C-specific growth rates from temperature dependent equations (food-saturated) for the dominant species, which we assumed were maximal growth rates (gmax). Using chlorophyll-a concentrations as a proxy for food conditions, we determined a size-dependent half-saturation constant with the Michaelis-Menten equation to derive growth rates (g) under the effect of food limitation. These food-dependent C-specific growth rates were much lower (ratio of 7.3. We concluded that interannual variation in copepod production resulted from factors and processes regulating copepod abundance and biomass in the absence of bottom-up control, allowing copepods to grow without limitation due to food resources.

  13. Climate factors play a limited role for past adaptation strategies in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard;

    2010-01-01

    The Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa has experienced recurrent droughts since the mid-1970s and today there is considerable concern for how this region will be able to adapt to future climate change. To develop well targeted adaptation strategies, the relative importance of climate factors...... as drivers of land use and livelihood change need to be better understood. Based on the perceptions of 1249 households in five countries across an annual rainfall gradient of 400-900 mm, we provide an estimate of the relative weight of climate factors as drivers of changes in rural households during the past...

  14. Migration of Epoxidized Soybean Oil (ESBO) and Phthalates From Twist Closures into Food and Enforcement of the Overall Migration Limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Gitte Alsing; Jensen, Lisbeth Krüger; Fankhauser, A.;

    2008-01-01

    -iso-nonylphthalates (DINP), were found in seven samples at 6-173 mg kg(-1). The highest concentrations (99-173 mg kg(-1)) were in products of garlic and tomatoes in oil and in fatty food products such as sauce barnaise and peanut butter. For five of the samples the overall migration from unused lids to the official fatty...... food simulant olive oil was determined and compared with the legal limit of 60 mg kg(-1). The results ranged from 76 to 519 mg kg(-1) and as a consequence the products were withdrawn from the market....

  15. Breeding Food Legumes for Resistance to Storage Insect Pests: Potential and Limitations

    OpenAIRE

    Kifle Dagne; Bayeh Mulatu; Tebkew Damte; Emana Getu; Muhammad Imtiaz; Endashaw Bekele; Gemechu Keneni

    2011-01-01

    Storage insect pests cause significant losses of food legumes particularly in the Tropics and the Sub-tropics. The most important species of storage insect pests of food legumes include Callosobruchus chinensis , C. maculatus , C. analis , Acanthoscelides obtectus , Bruchus incarnatus , B. rufimanus , B. dentipes , B. quinqueguttatus , B. emarginatus , B. ervi , B. lentis and B. pisorum . Effective post-harvest insect pest control measures should constitute part of the overall crop husbandry ...

  16. Food limitation leads to behavioral diversification and dietary specialization in sea otters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, M.T.; Bentall, G.; Estes, J.A.

    2008-01-01

    Dietary diversity often varies inversely with prey resource abundance. This pattern, although typically measured at the population level, is usually assumed to also characterize the behavior of individual animals within the population. However, the pattern might also be produced by changes in the degree of variation among individuals. Here we report on dietary and associated behavioral changes that occurred with the experimental translocation of sea otters from a food-poor to a food-rich environment. Although the diets of all individuals were broadly similar in the food-rich environment, a behaviorally based dietary polymorphism existed in the food-poor environment. Higher dietary diversity under low resource abundance was largely driven by greater variation among individuals. We further show that the dietary polymorphism in the food-poor environment included a broad suite of correlated behavioral variables and that the individuals that comprised specific behavioral clusters benefited from improved foraging efficiency on their individually preferred prey. Our findings add to the growing list of examples of extreme individuality in behavior and prey choice within populations and suggest that this phenomenon can emerge as a behavioral manifestation of increased population density. Individuality in foraging behavior adds complexity to both the fitness consequences of prey selection and food web dynamics, and it may figure prominently as a diversifying process over evolutionary timescales. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

  17. Expected climate change impacts on extreme flows in Vietnam: The limits of bias correction techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laux, Patrick; Dang, Thinh; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    We investigate possible impacts of climate change on future floods in the VuGia-ThuBon river basin, central Vietnam using a multi-model climate ensemble. An ensemble of regional climate projections (SRES) derived from different combinations of global and regional climate models in combination with different emission scenarios are used. In order to correct for the biases between the modelled climate variables and the observations, different bias correction techniques such as linear scaling, local intensity scaling, and quantile mapping are applied to the RCM outputs. Bias-corrected and raw climate data are then used as input for the fully distributed hydrological water balance model WaSIM-ETH to reproduce discharge data at NongSon station. Annual maximum discharges are extracted from the modeled daily series from the control period (1980-1999) and the future periods 2011-2030, 2031-2050, and 2080-2099 for subsequent extreme frequency analyses. To derive flood frequency curves for the four time periods, the generalized extreme value probability distribution is fitted to the data. Our analysis shows that actually none of the bias correction approaches applied to the control runs of simulated precipitation data can satisfactorily correct their distributions towards those of the observations. Therefore, this study builds further on the delta change approach, which adjusts the observed extreme values by the derived signals from the hydrological simulations fed by raw future climate projections. Adjusted return periods of e.g. HQ100 values are calculated based on the delta change method. The results inhibit a remarkable variation among the different climate scenarios in representing extreme values. Results show that MRI-MRI, ECHAM3-REMO, HadCMQ10-HadRM3P and HadCMQ13-HadRM3P models always exhibit a positive signal for all considered time slices and climate change scenarios. On the other hand, CCSM-MM5 frequently shows a negative signal for all time slices. On average, an

  18. Adaptation strategies to climate variability and change and its limitations to smallholder farmers. A literature search

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Phillipo; Magreth Bushesha; Zebedayo S. K. Mvena

    2015-01-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge on adaptation strategies to climate variability and change are scattered and fragmented due to lack of standpoints adaptation framework. This paper intends to analyse differences in adaptation strategies across agro-ecological zones, and finding out factors dictating adaptation to climate variability and change to smallholder farmers. The paper is based on documentary review methodology in which journals and books on adaptation were used as the main sources of...

  19. Tree recruitment in the Forest-tundra Ecotone : Limitation and facilitation processes in contrasting climatic Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Albertsen, Elena

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of this study was to analyse how abiotic and biotic constraint and facilitation agents determine tree recruitment in the alpine zone in climatically different regions as well as across species; Birch, pine and spruce. Location: The study was located to Grødalen, Haltdalen and Røros representing a coastal-inland gradient, where birch was included along the entire climatic gradient and all three species in one region (Haltdalen). Methods: Variables collected for seedling/...

  20. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  1. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  2. Smallholder Food and Water Security in the Face of Climatic Stress and the Coffee Leaf Rust: Lessons from Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, I. T.; Bacon, C. M.; Sundstrom, W.

    2015-12-01

    Smallholder farmers in Nicaragua and throughout much of Central America preserve forest biodiversity and contribute to the sustainable production of coffee and other crops while, paradoxically, they themselves must cope with recurring periods of seasonal hunger. Smallholder food and water security in the region is affected by hurricanes, periodic drought events, climatic changes, an on-going outbreak of the coffee leaf rust, and fluctuations in food prices. Using regression analysis, our research examines what factors strengthened resilience to these hazards at the household level over the 1981 - 2014 time period. To this end, we integrate qualitative research on coping responses and local institutions, a participatory survey of 368 households, and an analysis of hydro-climatic data. Our results indicate that coping responses to the coffee leaf rust outbreak and the 2014 drought are comparable in severity to those used to endure Hurricane Mitch in 1998, and a severe 2009 drought. Higher smallholder resilience to stresses affecting food and water security is associated with larger farms, off-farm employment, more on-farm food production, higher numbers of fruit trees, and greater coffee harvests. Households that reported more severe coping responses to hazards earlier in the study period tended to be more strongly impacted by later hazards and reported generally greater seasonal hunger. Affiliation with local farmer-to-farmer institutions prioritizing either subsistence-oriented production or sales to international fair-trade markets did not correlate strongly with coping responses; however, subsistence-oriented institutions promote several resilience-enhancing practices. Lessons learned by adapting to past hazards may be used to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies for smallholders under continued climate variability and change.

  3. Impact of limited cognitive capacity and feelings of guilt and excuse on the endowment effects for hedonic and utilitarian types of food.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonides, G.; Cramer, L.

    2013-01-01

    Consumer food choices may partly be explained by the endowment effect. Here, we focus on the influence of limited cognitive capacity on loss aversion related to food choices. We also investigate the effects of anticipated feelings on food choices. Experiments with 1614 pupils of secondary schools sh

  4. Breeding season food limitation drives population decline of the Little Owl Athene noctua in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Kasper; Sunde, Peter; Jacobsen, Lars B.;

    2010-01-01

    of seasonally changing land cover (mostly farmland) within a 1-km radius around nests as well as temperatures before and during the breeding season. Experimental food supplementation to breeding pairs increased the proportion of eggs that resulted in fledged young from 27 to 79%, supporting the hypothesis...... that the main proximate reason underlying the ongoing population decline is reduced productivity induced by energetic constraints after egg-laying. Conservation efforts should target enhancement of food availability during the breeding season. Other farmland species dependent on large invertebrates are likely...... to share the problems that Little Owls face in modern agricultural landscapes...

  5. Consumer perceptions of trans fats in 2009 show awareness of negative effects but limited concern regarding use in snack foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasser, Roseann; Cook, Stephanie; Bashutski, Megan; Hill, Karen; Norton, Darci; Coleman, Jean; Walker, Sharon; Charlebois, Sylvain

    2011-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine consumers' perceptions of industrially produced trans fats. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Regina at 3 different grocery store chains located in 3 different regions. A 21-item survey was administered in English by 3 research assistants at the grocery stores over a 5-day period. Of 498 potential respondents who were approached, 211 completed the survey, for a 42% response rate. The majority of respondents were female and over 61 years of age. When respondents were asked if they looked for information on food packages while grocery shopping, none of the respondents indicated that they looked for trans fat on the food label. Ninety-six percent of respondents identified that trans fat is found in processed foods, whereas 42% of respondents incorrectly identified trans fat as being found in nonhydrogenated margarines. More female respondents self-reported that they had made dietary changes to decrease trans fat intake as compared with male respondents (p snack food selections even if their selections contained trans fat. Consumers know a little about trans fats and consider them to be a concern. However, consumers are reluctant to make dietary changes to limit these fats in their snack food selections. PMID:21854161

  6. Adaptation strategies to climate variability and change and its limitations to smallholder farmers. A literature search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Phillipo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge on adaptation strategies to climate variability and change are scattered and fragmented due to lack of standpoints adaptation framework. This paper intends to analyse differences in adaptation strategies across agro-ecological zones, and finding out factors dictating adaptation to climate variability and change to smallholder farmers. The paper is based on documentary review methodology in which journals and books on adaptation were used as the main sources of information. The collected information were analysed by using content analysis. This paper found that smallholder farmers use a variety of practices to adapt to climate variability and change. These practices include: crop management, livestock management, diversification of livelihood strategies and land use management. Availability of extension services, climate change information and membership to social networks were among the factors identified dictating smallholder farmers adaptation to climate variability and change. The paper recommends to the Government of sub-Saharan Africa and development partners to come up with adaptation framework that takes into consideration differences in geographical location. They are needed also to provide enabling conditions to smallholder farmers through strengthening farmers’ supportive services to enhance their adaptive capacities.

  7. Historical Climate Change Impact-Response Processes Under the Framework of Food Security in China%粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方修琦; 郑景云; 葛全胜

    2014-01-01

    It is one of the core themes of the Past Global Change Sciences (PAGES) that to understand the mechanism and process of the past human-climate-ecosystem’s interaction in various spatial and temporal scales in order to improve the understanding of contemporary climate change impacts and adaptation. The top-ic is also the important theme of historical man/milieu relationships that is a big issue of concern by geogra-phers. In this article, concepts of vulnerability and food security in the regime of Global Changes are used to il-lustrate historical climate change impact-response processes in China. Corresponding to the food access, food availability and food utilization, the food security of historical China is simplified to three levels of food pro-duction safety, food supply safety and food consumption safety. The food production safety was the base of food security which could reflect the social sensitivity to climate change. The food supply safety was the capac-ity of the society to accommodate the crisis of regional food security which could indicate the social capacity to response the impacts of climate change. The food consumption safety was the final state of food security. The insecurity of food consumption was essential for the occurrence of social instability impacted by climate change. The processes related to the impacts of climate change to grain productivity, food supply production se-curity, individual food security, and social security are discussed. For human society, climate change means the changes of climatic resources or disasters. Impacts of climate change occurred from the direct impact on the grain harvest, then transferred further up to the sub-systems of economy, population and society mainly though the impact-response chain of climate change, agriculture harvest per capita food supply, famine, and social sta-bility. However, the impact-response processes of climate change could not be attributed to a simple causality. The initial impact

  8. Historical Climate Change Impact-Response Processes Under the Framework of Food Security in China%粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方修琦; 郑景云; 葛全胜

    2014-01-01

    -curity, individual food security, and social security are discussed. For human society, climate change means the changes of climatic resources or disasters. Impacts of climate change occurred from the direct impact on the grain harvest, then transferred further up to the sub-systems of economy, population and society mainly though the impact-response chain of climate change, agriculture harvest per capita food supply, famine, and social sta-bility. However, the impact-response processes of climate change could not be attributed to a simple causality. The initial impact could be amplified or suppressed in feedback processes affected by many factors in each sub-system, such as arable land, population, policy, foreign forces, and so on. Both people’s spontaneous be-haviours and the government's organized policies and operations played very important roles in all steps of ad-justing the responses on the impacts of climate change. But each adjustment had its limitation under the given historical condition. The impact of climate change could be positive or negative. To a certain degree, even the negative impacts could be converted into new opportunity for development if right countermeasures were tak-en. This article has provided a framework on the impact-response processes of historical climate change. Fur-ther research should be carried out to measure the processes quantitatively on the base of the framework.

  9. Local agriculture traditional knowledge to avoid erosion in a changing climate: Ensuring agricultural livelihoods and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guadalupe Rivera Ferré, Marta; Di Masso, Marina; Vara, Isabel; Mailhost, Mara; Bhatta, Goppal; Cuellar, Mamem; López-i-Gelats, Feliu; Gallar, Donald

    2015-04-01

    In the regions that experience substantial climatic risks, considerable traditional expertise exists that is underutilized and that could be valuable as a starting point to build more effective strategies for adapting to climate change and ensure food availability. Some of these are agronomic strategies for soil conservation targeting erosion avoidance as a form to ensure soil fertility and thus, crop production and food availability. Following an extensive literature review in the Indogangetic Plans, we have identified many different practices derived from local traditional knowledge that can be classified as i) Reshaping the landscape (terracing, bunding, efficient distribution of land uses); ii) Stream diversion to reduce flood impact (channels along the edges of the fields, embankments, dams, network of ponds, outlets, walls and fencing); and iii) Others (agroforesty, use of specific trees as indicators of soil erosion, crop-fallow rotation, preservation of patches of forests, reforestation, collective management of forests). These endogenous-based practices have a great potential for adaptation since they are more easily adopted by communities, they require of minimum or not external expertise and aid, and usually, are cheaper than other strategies. A combination of local knowledge with other scientific knowledge may be the most effective way to face climate change. This work was performed as part of the CCAFS-Program of the CGIAR in South Asia.

  10. Econometric Analysis of Food Crops’ Response to Climate Variability and Macroeconomic Policies’ Reforms in Nigeria (1978-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onoja, Anthony O.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the extent to which climate variability (proxied by rainfall variability and macroeconomic policies influenced food crop output in Nigeria. It used time series data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics (1978-2009. Four functional forms of OLS models were tried. The Cobb-Douglas function was finally adopted based on standard econometric model selection criteria and diagnosis. Chow test was used to test the hypotheses of the study. It was found that rainfall variability influenced crop output negatively. Climatic factor, loans guaranteed by Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund and lending rate were all statistically significant drivers of crop output in the economy at p<0.05, p<0.01 and p<0.05 respectively. Their elasticities were respectively 4.01%, 0.52% and 0.98%. No structural difference between the economic reform era and the preceding era‟s regression coefficients was found. Programmes to stem corruption and loan diversion; subsidization of agricultural credit and climate change adaptation capacity building programmes were recommended to bring about sustainable food security in the country.

  11. Disease will limit future food supply from the global crustacean fishery and aquaculture sectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stentiford, G.D.; Neil, D.M.; Peeler, E.J.; Shields, J.D.; Small, H.J.; Flegel, T.W.; Vlak, J.M.; Jones, B.; Morado, F.; Moss, S.; Lotz, J.; Bartholomay, L.; Behringer, D.C.; Hauton, C.; Lightner, D.V.

    2012-01-01

    Seafood is a highly traded food commodity. Farmed and captured crustaceans contribute a significant proportion with annual production exceeding 10 M metric tonnes with first sale value of $40bn. The sector is dominated by farmed tropical marine shrimp, the fastest growing sector of the global aquacu

  12. Circadian food anticipatory activity: Entrainment limits and scalar properties re-examined.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Christian C; Patton, Danica F; Parfyonov, Maksim; Mistlberger, Ralph E

    2014-12-01

    Rats can anticipate a daily feeding time. This has been interpreted as a rhythm controlled by food-entrainable circadian oscillators, because the rhythm persists during several cycles of total food deprivation and fails to track mealtimes if the feeding schedule deviates substantially from 24. These and other properties distinguish anticipation of daily meals from anticipation of food rewards provided at intervals in the seconds-to-minutes range, suggesting distinct mechanisms. It has been reported that rats can anticipate meals at long, but noncircadian, intervals if they are required to work for food, and that anticipation of daily meals, expressed in operant behavior, shows the scalar property, a hallmark of timing intervals in the seconds-to-minutes range. These observations raise the possibility of a universal timing system, rather than unique mechanisms for circadian and noncircadian intervals. To test whether circadian constraints on daily meal timing depend on the measure of behavior, we re-examined formal properties of food anticipation using lever pressing and motion sensors. We observed robust anticipation in both measures to meals at 24-hr intervals but no anticipation of meals at 18-hr intervals in light-dark or constant light and no evidence that the duration of anticipation scales with the interval between lighting transitions and mealtime. We are therefore unable to confirm reports that operant measures can reveal timing at long, but noncircadian, intervals. If timing processes exist that do permit anticipation of events at long, but noncircadian, intervals, the conditions under which these can be revealed are evidently highly constrained. PMID:25285457

  13. Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagner, Fabien H.; Hérault, Bruno; Bonal, Damien; Stahl, Clément; Anderson, Liana O.; Baker, Timothy R.; Becker, Gabriel Sebastian; Beeckman, Hans; Boanerges Souza, Danilo; Botosso, Paulo Cesar; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Bräuning, Achim; Brede, Benjamin; Brown, Foster Irving; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Cardoso, Fernanda C.G.; Carvalho, Fabrício Alvim; Castro, Wendeson; Chagas, Rubens Koloski; Chave, Jérome; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Clark, Deborah A.; Costa, Flavia Regina Capellotto; Couralet, Camille; Silva Mauricio, Da Paulo Henrique; Dalitz, Helmut; Castro, De Vinicius Resende; Freitas Milani, De Jaçanan Eloisa; Oliveira, De Edilson Consuelo; Souza Arruda, De Luciano; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Drew, David M.; Dünisch, Oliver; Durigan, Giselda; Elifuraha, Elisha; Fedele, Marcio; Ferreira Fedele, Ligia; Figueiredo Filho, Afonso; Finger, César Augusto Guimarães; Franco, Augusto César; Freitas Júnior, João Lima; Galvão, Franklin; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Gliniars, Robert; Lima De Alencastro Graça, Paulo Maurício; Griffiths, Anthony D.; Grogan, James; Guan, Kaiyu; Homeier, Jürgen; Kanieski, Maria Raquel; Kho, Lip Khoon; Koenig, Jennifer; Kohler, Sintia Valerio; Krepkowski, Julia; Lemos-filho, José Pires; Lieberman, Diana; Lieberman, Milton Eugene; Lisi, Claudio Sergio; Longhi Santos, Tomaz; López Ayala, José Luis; Maeda, Eduardo Eijji; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maria, Vivian R.B.; Marques, Marcia C.M.; Marques, Renato; Maza Chamba, Hector; Mbwambo, Lawrence; Melgaço, Karina Liana Lisboa; Mendivelso, Hooz Angela; Murphy, Brett P.; O'Brien, Joseph J.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Okada, Naoki; Pélissier, Raphaël; Prior, Lynda D.; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Ross, Michael; Rossatto, Davi Rodrigo; Rossi, Vivien; Rowland, Lucy; Rutishauser, Ervan; Santana, Hellen; Schulze, Mark; Selhorst, Diogo; Silva, Williamar Rodrigues; Silveira, Marcos; Spannl, Susanne; Swaine, Michael D.; Toledo, José Julio; Toledo, Marcos Miranda; Toledo, Marisol; Toma, Takeshi; Tomazello Filho, Mario; Valdez Hernández, Juan Ignacio; Verbesselt, Jan; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Vincent, Grégoire; Volkmer De Castilho, Carolina; Volland, Franziska; Worbes, Martin; Zanon, Magda Lea Bolzan; Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.

    2016-01-01

    The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 incl

  14. Limited response of peatland CH4 emissions to abrupt Atlantic Ocean circulation changes in glacial climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. O. Hopcroft

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Ice-core records show that abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic warming events of the last glacial period were accompanied by large increases in the atmospheric CH4 concentration (up to 200 ppbv. These abrupt changes are generally regarded as arising from the effects of changes in the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation and the resultant climatic impact on natural CH4 sources, in particular wetlands. We use two different ecosystem models of wetland CH4 emissions to simulate northern CH4 sources forced with coupled general circulation model simulations of five different time periods during the last glacial to investigate the potential influence of abrupt ocean circulation changes on atmospheric CH4 levels during D-O events. The simulated warming over Greenland of 7–9 °C in the different time-periods is at the lower end of the range of 11–15 °C derived from ice-cores, but is associated with strong impacts on the hydrological cycle, especially over the North Atlantic and Europe during winter. We find that although the sensitivity of CH4 emissions to the imposed climate varies significantly between the two ecosystem emissions models, the model simulations do not reproduce sufficient emission changes to satisfy ice-core observations of CH4 increases during abrupt events. This suggests that alternative scenarios of climatic change could be required to explain the abrupt glacial CH4 variations.

  15. The Cost Effectiveness of Educating Limited Resource Youths on Food and Nutrition

    OpenAIRE

    Baral, Ranju; Davis, George C.; Serrano, Elena; McFerren, Mary; You, Wen

    2013-01-01

    A framework for estimating cost effectiveness of the youth Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program (EFNEP), one of the largest nutrition education programs in the US, is developed. Using costs and effects data from 15 program counties in Virginia for the school year 2011/2012, the cost effectiveness ratio (CER) of the Healthy Weights for Healthy Kids (HWHK) program was estimated. Improvements in nutrition related behavior, and improvements in nutrition related self-efficacy, from pretes...

  16. Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Jiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T and available dissolved oxygen (DO that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1 °C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past (1961–2008 and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate.

  17. Bridging Political Expectations and Scientific Limitations in Climate Risk Management. On the Uncertain Effects of International Carbon Sink Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loevbrand, E. [Environmental Science Section, Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Kalmar University, SE-391 82 Kalmar (Sweden)

    2004-12-01

    Despite great advances in carbon cycle research during the past decade the climatic impact of terrestrial ecosystems is still highly uncertain. Although contemporary studies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere has acted as a net sink to atmospheric carbon during the past two decades, the future role of terrestrial carbon pools is most difficult to foresee. When land use change and forestry activities were included into the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the requirements for scientific precision increased significantly. At the same time the political expectations of carbon sequestration as climate mitigation strategy added uncertainties of a social kind to the study of land-atmosphere carbon exchange that have been difficult to address by conventional scientific methods. In this paper I explore how the failure to take into account the effects of direct human activity in scientific projections of future terrestrial carbon storage has resulted in a simplified appreciation of the risks embedded in a global carbon sequestration scheme. I argue that the social limits to scientific analysis must be addressed in order to accommodate these risks in future climate governance and to enable continued scientific authority in the international climate regime.

  18. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  19. MEP solution for a minimal climate model: success and limitation of a variational problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pascale

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Maximum Entropy Production conjecture (MEP is applied to a minimal four-box model of climate which accounts for both horizontal and vertical material heat fluxes. It is shown that, under condition of fixed insolation, a MEP solution is found with reasonably realistic temperature and heat fluxes, thus generalising results from independent two-box horizontal or vertical models. It is also shown that the meridional and the vertical entropy production terms are independently involved in the maximisation and thus MEP can be applied to each subsystem with fixed boundary conditions. We then extend the four-box model by increasing its number of degrees of freedom, and test its realism by comparing it with a GCM output. An order-of-magnitude evaluation of contributions to the material entropy production (≈50 mW m−2 K−1 due to horizontal and vertical processes within the climate system is carried out by using ad hoc temperature fields. It turns out that approximately 40 mW m−2 K−1 is the entropy production due to vertical heat transport and 5–7 mW m−2 K−1 to horizontal heat transport. A MEP solution is found which is fairly realistic as far as the horizontal large scale organisation of the surface climate is concerned whereas the vertical structure looks to be unrealistic and presents seriously unstable features. Finally a more general problem is investigated in which the longwave transmissivity is varied simultaneously with the temperature. This leads to a MEP solution characterised by a much warmer climate, with very vigorous vertical heat fluxes, in which the atmosphere is opaque to longwave radiation. A critical discussion about how to interpret MEP and how to apply it in a physically correct way concludes the paper.

  20. Satellite observations of the role and impacts of dry season climate limitations on tropical forest fates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huete, A. R.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Wu, J.; Devadas, R.; Guan, K.; Liu, Y.; Ratana, P.; Sun, Q.; Schaaf, C.; Saleska, S. R.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change scenarios projected for the 21st century predict drying of the Amazon, greening of monsoon tropical Asia and no change in the tropics of Australia. Dry season variability is increasing with complex associated forest responses and feedbacks as they become exposed to longer and/or more intense dry seasons. The functional response of tropical forests to dry seasonal periods is thus crucial to forest resilience, as forests may respond with either enhanced photosynthesis (due to more sunlight) or may dry down with greater susceptibility to fires and release of greenhouse gases and severe public health haze alerts. In this study, we use multiple satellite remote sensing datasets representing forest canopy states, environmental drivers (light and water status), and disturbance (fires), along with in situ flux tower measures of photosynthesis to assess whole ecosystem patterns and test mechanisms of forest- dry season climate interactions. We compare photosynthesis patterns and dry season responses of Asia-Oceania tropical forests with neotropical forests to better understand forest resilience to climate change and human impacts. In contrast to the neotropics, human activities in monsoon tropical Asia have resulted in intensive transformations of tropical forests. We find forest disturbance exerts a strong influence on tropical forest functioning and a partial loss or degradation of tropical forests can reverse dry seasonal responses with substantial impacts on carbon fluxes. Neotropical forests displayed large variations in dry season forest responses due to spatially variable dry season lengths and magnitude, whereas most of monsoon Asia tropical forests lacked well-defined dry seasons, yet were highly sensitive to shorter term, intense drought events that impacted severely upon the disturbed forests. Our results highlight the interactions among rainfall, radiation and forest health with the relative importance of each factor varying with the

  1. The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLachlan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

  2. Modeling the Climate Change Adaptation of Crop Production using Irrigation over Water-Limited Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Sakai, T.; Yokozawa, M.

    2014-12-01

    Replacing rainfed cropping system by irrigated one is assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation in agriculture. However, in many agricultural impact assessments, future irrigation scenarios are externally given and do not consider the space-time varying available agricultural water under changing climate and land use. For these reason, this study aimed to (1) develop a crop-river coupled model that can simultaneously simulate crop growth and yield over a river watershed, river discharge and their dynamic interactions by embedded a large-area crop model, PRYSBI-2 [Sakurai et al., 2014] into a hydrologic model, H08 [Hanasaki et al., 2008]; (2) apply the developed coupled model to the Songhua River watershed in Northeast China and evaluate the model's performance by comparing the historical model simulations outputs; (3) assess the effects of adaption measure expanding irrigated area under climate change. The modeled year-to-year variations in soil moisture were comparable to the reference with the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) of 0.75 (pdepletion of available agricultural water resources.

  3. Climatization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grant, Stephen; Tamason, Charlotte Crim; Jensen, Peter Kjær Mackie

    2015-01-01

    by climate change, in order to reach an intended goal or to distractthe discussion from the real problem which might have a different root course than caused bythe climate change effects. The implications of climatization are currently unclear – particularly to what extent climatizinga disaster might......In recent years, there has been a developing trend of labelling some disasters as ‘climatechange disasters’. In doing so, a discursive phenomenon can emerge that the authors havecoined ‘climatization’ which is specified as framing a disastrous event or degraded environmentalcondition as caused...... in the context of Bangladesh – a country that is expectedto be among the worst affected by climate change and a country in which some peopleclaim the effects of climate change can already be seen. A qualitative field study whichincluded key informant interviews, focus group discussions and a literature review...

  4. Climate change adaptation: a panacea for food security in Ondo State, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatuase, A. I.

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the likely perceived causes of climate change, adaptation strategies employed and technical inefficiency of arable crop farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria. Data were obtained from primary sources using a set of structured questionnaire assisted with interview schedule. Multistage sampling technique was used. Data were analyzed using the following: descriptive statistics and the stochastic frontier production function. The findings showed that majority of the respondents (59.1 %) still believed that climate change is a natural phenomenon that is beyond man's power to abate while industrial release, improper sewage disposal, fossil fuel use, deforestation and bush burning were perceived as the most human factors that influence climate change by the category that chose human activities (40.9 %) as the main causes of climate change. The main employed adaptation strategies by the farmers were mixed cropping, planting early matured crop, planting of resistant crops and use of agrochemicals. The arable crop farmers were relatively technically efficient with about 53 % of them having technical efficiency above the average of 0.784 for the study area. The study observed that education, adaptation, perception, climate information and farming experience were statistically significant in decreasing inefficiency of arable crop production. Therefore, advocacy on climate change and its adaptation strategies should be intensified in the study area.

  5. Improved gait in persons with knee related mobility limitations by a rosehip food supplement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ginnerup-Nielsen, Elisabeth; Christensen, Robin; Bliddal, Henning;

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a specialized rosehip powder nutraceutical on the biomechanical function of the knee joint during walking in individuals with knee-related walking limitations. METHODS: Randomized, participant and outcome assessor blinded trial. Participants with self-reported...... than the placebo group. CONCLUSION: A daily intake of rosehip powder for 12 weeks improved important indices of knee joint function and dynamics during walking compared to placebo in persons with knee-related walking limitations....

  6. Effects of food limitation and emigration on self-thinning in experimental minnow cohorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunham, J.B.; Dickerson, B. R.; Beever, E.; Duncan, R. D.; Vinyard, G.L.

    1. The theory of food-regulated self-thinning (FST) for mobile animals predicts population density (N) to be an inverse function of mean body mass (W) scaled to an exponent (b), such that N = k W−b, where k is a constant. FST also predicts energy requirements (or energy flow) to remain constant over time (termed energetic equivalence) as losses to cohorts (e.g. emigration and mortality) are balanced by increased growth of surviving individuals.

  7. Food security for sub-Saharan Africa: does water scarcity limit the options?

    OpenAIRE

    Gowing, John W.

    2003-01-01

    Future food security can be achieved only by delivering substantial increases in agricultural production, but this has important implications for water availability. Water scarcity is not currently a major issue in sub-Saharan Africa, but it would be a mistake to neglect this issue. It would be a mistake also to assume that only plans for irrigated agriculture are affected. It should be recognised that a land-use decision is also a water-use decision. A plan based on improving rain-fed agricu...

  8. Climate and soil properties limit the positive effects of land use reversion on carbon storage in Eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabbi, S. M. F.; Tighe, Matthew; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Cowie, Annette; Robertson, Fiona; Dalal, Ram; Page, Kathryn; Crawford, Doug; Wilson, Brian R.; Schwenke, Graeme; McLeod, Malem; Badgery, Warwick; Dang, Yash P.; Bell, Mike; O'Leary, Garry; Liu, De Li; Baldock, Jeff

    2015-12-01

    Australia’s “Direct Action” climate change policy relies on purchasing greenhouse gas abatement from projects undertaking approved abatement activities. Management of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural soils is an approved activity, based on the expectation that land use change can deliver significant changes in SOC. However, there are concerns that climate, topography and soil texture will limit changes in SOC stocks. This work analyses data from 1482 sites surveyed across the major agricultural regions of Eastern Australia to determine the relative importance of land use vs. other drivers of SOC. Variation in land use explained only 1.4% of the total variation in SOC, with aridity and soil texture the main regulators of SOC stock under different land uses. Results suggest the greatest potential for increasing SOC stocks in Eastern Australian agricultural regions lies in converting from cropping to pasture on heavy textured soils in the humid regions.

  9. Combined effects of elevated CO2 and food limitation on early life stages of Clanus finmarchicus

    OpenAIRE

    Østebrøt, Embla Oddvarsdotter

    2014-01-01

    The early life stages of Calanus finmarchicus were exposed to two levels of pCO2, 380 ppm (control) and 2080 ppm (elevated CO2) and two different food concentrations, ~ 600 µg C/L (high food concentration) and ~150 µg C/L (food limited). Carbon and nitrogen analysis were performed at the first feeding stage (nauplii stage 3), and the last nauplii stage before moulting to copepodit (nauplii stage 6). The elevated CO2 and food limitation had a significant negative additive effect, whe...

  10. Lake and watershed characteristics rather than climate influence nutrient limitation in shallow lakes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kosten, S.; Huszar, V.M.; Mazzeo, N.; Scheffer, M.; Sternberg, L.S.L.; Jeppesen, E.

    2009-01-01

    Both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) can limit primary production in shallow lakes, but it is still debated how the importance of N and P varies in time and space. We sampled 83 shallow lakes along a latitudinal gradient (5°–55° S) in South America and assessed the potential nutrient limitation usin

  11. Resource limits and conversion efficiency with implications for climate change and California's energy supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Gregory Donald

    on aggregated reserve numbers. Electric power generation consumes 92 percent of U.S. coal production. Natural gas competes with coal as a baseload power generation fuel with similar or slightly better generation efficiency. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, described in Chapter 2, creates transportation fuel from coal with an efficiency of less than 45 percent. Claims of higher efficiencies are based on waste heat recovery, since this is a highly exothermic process. The yield of liquid fuel as a proportion of the energy content of the coal input is always less than 45 percent. Compressed natural gas can be used for vehicle fuel with efficiency greater than 98 percent. If we view Fischer-Tropsch synthesis as a form of arbitrage between markets for electricity and transportation fuel, coal cannot simultaneously compete with natural gas for both transportation fuel and electric power. This is because Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is a way to turn power generation fuel into transportation fuel with low efficiency, while natural gas can be converted to transportation fuel with much greater efficiency. For this reason, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis will be an uneconomic source of transportation fuel as long as natural gas is economic for power generation. This conclusion holds even without the very high capital cost of coal-to-liquids plants. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has generated forty carbon production and emissions scenarios, see the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000). Chapter 4 develops a base-case scenario for global coal production based on the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data. Areas with large resources but little production history, such as Alaska or Eastern Siberia, can be treated as sensitivities on top of this base case. The value of our approach is that it provides a reality check on the magnitude of carbon emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The resulting base case is significantly

  12. Climate change and temperature-dependent biogeography: oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance in animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pörtner, H. O.

    2001-03-01

    Recent years have shown a rise in mean global temperatures and a shift in the geographical distribution of ectothermic animals. For a cause and effect analysis the present paper discusses those physiological processes limiting thermal tolerance. The lower heat tolerance in metazoa compared with unicellular eukaryotes and bacteria suggests that a complex systemic rather than molecular process is limiting in metazoa. Whole-animal aerobic scope appears as the first process limited at low and high temperatures, linked to the progressively insufficient capacity of circulation and ventilation. Oxygen levels in body fluids may decrease, reflecting excessive oxygen demand at high temperatures or insufficient aerobic capacity of mitochondria at low temperatures. Aerobic scope falls at temperatures beyond the thermal optimum and vanishes at low or high critical temperatures when transition to an anaerobic mitochondrial metabolism occurs. The adjustment of mitochondrial densities on top of parallel molecular or membrane adjustments appears crucial for maintaining aerobic scope and for shifting thermal tolerance. In conclusion, the capacity of oxygen delivery matches full aerobic scope only within the thermal optimum. At temperatures outside this range, only time-limited survival is supported by residual aerobic scope, then anaerobic metabolism and finally molecular protection by heat shock proteins and antioxidative defence. In a cause and effect hierarchy, the progressive increase in oxygen limitation at extreme temperatures may even enhance oxidative and denaturation stress. As a corollary, capacity limitations at a complex level of organisation, the oxygen delivery system, define thermal tolerance limits before molecular functions become disturbed.

  13. 食物致敏原限量确定方法研究进展%Progress on the methods for defining food allergen limits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韦晓群; 谢力; 邹志飞; 相大鹏; 李志勇; 甄宇江

    2011-01-01

    食物中致敏原的管理是食品安全的重要内容之一,而食物致敏原限量对消费者、食品监管部门、企业都有着重要的实际意义,但食物致敏原限量却难以被严格、科学地确定.本文综述了欧盟、美国、澳大利亚以及日本等国家和组织食物致敏原限量的确定方法,并提出了我国食物致敏原限量确定的建议.%Since food allergen is one of the most important parts in food safety management, limiting food allergen has important practical significance for consumers with food allergy, food safety regulators and food enterprises; however, food allergen limits are difficult to be defined strictly and scientifically. The methods of defining food allergen limits in European Union, USA, Australia and Japan were reviewed. Suggestions for establishing food allergen limits in China are proposed.

  14. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

    2014-01-01

    Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

  15. Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B

    2016-09-20

    Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability.

  16. Limited potential of no-till agriculture for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powlson, David S.; Stirling, Clare M.; Jat, M. L.; Gerard, Bruno G.; Palm, Cheryl A.; Sanchez, Pedro A.; Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2014-08-01

    The Emissions Gap Report 2013 from the United Nations Environment Programme restates the claim that changing to no-till practices in agriculture, as an alternative to conventional tillage, causes an accumulation of organic carbon in soil, thus mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration. But these claims ignore a large body of experimental evidence showing that the quantity of additional organic carbon in soil under no-till is relatively small: in large part apparent increases result from an altered depth distribution. The larger concentration near the surface in no-till is generally beneficial for soil properties that often, though not always, translate into improved crop growth. In many regions where no-till is practised it is common for soil to be cultivated conventionally every few years for a range of agronomic reasons, so any soil carbon benefit is then lost. We argue that no-till is beneficial for soil quality and adaptation of agriculture to climate change, but its role in mitigation is widely overstated.

  17. Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R.; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B.

    2016-01-01

    Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale—a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability. PMID:27601643

  18. Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B

    2016-09-20

    Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability. PMID:27601643

  19. The limits of poverty reduction in support of climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Donald R.; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Eakin, Hallie; Lo, Yun-Jia

    2016-09-01

    The relationship between poverty and climate change vulnerability is complex and though not commensurate, the distinctions between the two are often blurred. There is widespread recognition of the need to better understand poverty-vulnerability dynamics in order to improve risk management and poverty reduction investments. This is challenging due to the latent nature of adaptive capacities, frequent lack of baseline data, and the need for high-resolution studies. Here we respond to these challenges by analyzing household-level data in Northeast Brazil to compare drought events 14 years apart. In the period between droughts, the government implemented an aggressive anti-poverty program that includes financial and human capital investments. Poverty declined significantly, but the expected reduction in vulnerability did not occur, in part because the households were not investing in risk management strategies. Our findings complement other research that shows that households make rational decisions that may not correspond with policymaker expectations. We emphasize the need for complementary investments to help channel increased household wealth into risk reduction, and to ensure that the public sector itself continues to prioritize the public functions of risk management, especially in areas where the social cost of climatic risk is high.

  20. Bryophytes as Climate Indicators: moss and liverwort photosynthetic limitations and carbon isotope signals in organic material and peat deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, H.; Royles, J.; Horwath, A.; Hodell, D. A.; Convey, P.; Hodgson, D.; Wingate, L.; Ogeé, J.

    2011-12-01

    Bryophytes make a significant contribution to carbon sequestration and storage in polar, boreal, temperate and tropical biomes, and yet there is limited understanding of the determinants of carbon isotope composition. Bryophytes are poikilohydric and lack stomata in the vegetative (gametophyte) stage, and lack of roots and reliance on liquid water to maintain hydration status also imposes diffusional limitations on CO2 uptake and extent of carbon isotope discrimination. Real-time gas exchange and instantaneous discrimination studies can be used to quantify responses to liquid phase limitation. Thus, wetted tissues show less negative δ13C signals due to liquid phase conductance and, as the thallus surface dries, maximum CO2 assimilation and discrimination are attained when the limitation is primarily the internal (mesophyll) conductance. Continued desiccation then leads to additional biochemical limitation in drought tolerant species, and low discrimination, although the carbon gain is low at this time. In this paper we explore the extent of carbon isotope discrimination in bulk organic material and cellulose as a function of climatic and environmental conditions, in temperate, tropical and Antarctic bryophytes. Field studies have been used to investigate seasonal variations in precipitation and water vapour inputs for cloud forest formations as a function of bryophyte biomass, diversity and isotope composition in epiphytes (particularly leafy liverworts) along an altitudinal gradient in Peru. In the Antarctic, moss banks sampled on Signy Island consisted of only two species, primarily Chorisodontium aciphyllum and some Polytrichum strictum, allowing the collection of shallow and deep cores representative of growth over the past 200 to 2000 years. The well-preserved peat has provided data on growth (14C) and stable isotopic proxies (13C, 18O) for material contemporary with recent anthropogenic climate forcing (over the past 200 years), for comparison with longer

  1. The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Andrea K; Cooch, Evan G; Sillett, T Scott; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L; Holmes, Richard T; Webster, Michael S

    2016-02-01

    Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.

  2. Climatic Sensitivity of a Mixed Forest Association of White Spruce and Trembling Aspen at Their Southern Range Limit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophan Chhin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climatic sensitivity of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench Voss was examined growing in association with trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx. at their southern limit of distribution in a transitional ecotone between the southern boreal forest and northern prairie region. The study was carried out in the Spruce Woods Provincial Park (SWPP located in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. The dry regional climate restricted trembling aspen growth during the growing season via moisture deficiency and temperature induced drought stress. Warm, mild winters also negatively affected radial growth of trembling aspen. Growth of white spruce was moderated by conditions within the aspen stands as radial growth patterns showed low variability from year to year, a low common growth signal, and a stronger response to temperature than to precipitation. Nonetheless, the dry regional climate still restricted growth of white spruce during the growing season via temperature induced drought stress. The findings of the study for white spruce support the stress gradient hypothesis in which facilitative interactions between tree species are expected under harsher environmental conditions.

  3. One Health, One World—The Intersecting Legal Regimes of Trade, Climate Change, Food Security, Humanitarian Crises, and Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelli K. Garcia

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Today’s global health challenges require a multi-sectoral approach in which health is a fundamental value within global governance and international law. “One Health, One World” provides a unified, harmonious vision of global health governance that supports the wellbeing of humans and animals living in a clean and temperate environment. This article focuses on five legal regimes—trade law, food security law, environmental law, humanitarian law, and refugee law—that play a pivotal role in influencing health outcomes and are integral to achieving the One Health, One World vision. International trade, for example, opens markets not only to life-saving products such as vaccines, medicines, and medical equipment, but also to life-threatening products such as tobacco and asbestos. If strengthened and enforced, environmental law can decrease air and water pollution, major causes of death and disability. World hunger has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis and climate change, increasing the urgency for international law to enhance food security. Humanitarian law must similarly be strengthened to protect civilians adequately as the nature of warfare continues to change. Refugee law plays a pivotal role in protecting the health of deeply vulnerable people who lack food, shelter, and social stability. Higher standards and more effective compliance are necessary for international law to realize its full potential to safeguard the world's population.

  4. International negotiation methods on climatic risks, the limits of global incentives: Natural gas example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The discussion on economic instruments for coordinating an international strategy for climatic risks prevention does not take sufficiently into account the importance of the relevant scientific controversies. These ones determine strongly the negotiation process for the settlement of such a system. We illustrate this point with the simple case of the natural gas whose superiority in terms of emission contents compared to the other fossil fuels, could be contested in case of too important CH4 releases. We show that the negotiation process cannot come to a positive end if the incentive system relies only on the price signal. This process can converge only if one thinks about the combination of various tools, namely technological norms and ad hoc funds for the renewal of transmission and distribution networks combined with tax systems. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  5. Implications of policies and prevent climate change for future food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Scott, M.J.

    1993-07-01

    Measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels, suppression of on-farm emissions of methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), afforestation, and geoengineering ``fixes`` have been proposed to mitigate or eliminate greenhouse-forced climate change. These measures will impact agriculture and other sectors of the economy. this report discusses the above impacts.

  6. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F; Rötter, R P; Bindi, M;

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess cli...

  7. Effects of limited food intake and vitamin C supplementation on pancreatic glucagon and insulin in guinea pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Kaplan

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of limited food intake (LFI (24, 48 and 120 h and a single i.p. dose of vitamin C supplementation (500 mg/kg on serum glucose and C-peptide levels, and pancreatic insulin and glucagon levels in guinea pigs. The highest serum glucose levels were found after vitamin C supplementation plus LFI for 48 h (LFI 48. Serum C-peptide levels were not significantly affected by food limitation (LFI 24, LFI 48, or LFI 120 as compared with controls, but when vitamin C was supplemented, the C-peptide levels were moderately enhanced. Immunohistochemical findings on pancreatic islets showed increased staining intensity for both insulin and glucagon when vitamin C was supplemented. In addition, the alpha and beta cells were stimulated, particularly by vitamin C supplementation plus LFI 120. Based on these findings, vitamin C supplementation may have a beneficial effect on the alpha and beta cells.

  8. Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegoke, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

  9. Niche overlap, threshold food densities, and limits to prey depletion for a diving duck assemblage in an estuarine bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovvorn, James R.; De La Cruz, Susan; Takekawa, John; Shaskey, Laura E.; Richman, Samantha E.

    2013-01-01

    Planning for marine conservation often requires estimates of the amount of habitat needed to support assemblages of interacting species. During winter in subtidal San Pablo Bay, California, the 3 main diving duck species are lesser scaup Aythya affinis (LESC), greater scaup A. marila (GRSC), and surf scoter Melanitta perspicillata (SUSC), which all feed almost entirely on the bivalve Corbula amurensis. Decreased body mass and fat, increased foraging effort, and major departures of these birds appeared to result from food limitation. Broad overlap in prey size, water depth, and location suggested that the 3 species responded similarly to availability of the same prey. However, an energetics model that accounts for differing body size, locomotor mode, and dive behavior indicated that each species will become limited at different stages of prey depletion in the order SUSC, then GRSC, then LESC. Depending on year, 35 to 66% of the energy in Corbula standing stocks was below estimated threshold densities for profitable foraging. Ectothermic predators, especially flounders and sturgeons, could reduce excess carrying capacity for different duck species by 4 to 10%. A substantial quantity of prey above profitability thresholds was not exploited before most ducks left San Pablo Bay. Such pre-depletion departure has been attributed in other taxa to foraging aggression. However, in these diving ducks that showed no overt aggression, this pattern may result from high costs of locating all adequate prey patches, resulting reliance on existing flocks to find food, and propensity to stay near dense flocks to avoid avian predation. For interacting species assemblages, modeling profitability thresholds can indicate the species most vulnerable to food declines. However, estimates of total habitat needed require better understanding of factors affecting the amount of prey above thresholds that is not depleted before the predators move elsewhere.

  10. Assessing Face Validity of a Food Behavior Checklist for Limited-resource Filipinos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banna, Jinan C; Buchthal, Opal Vanessa; Tauyan, Socorro

    2015-10-01

    Diet-related chronic health conditions are prevalent in the Filipino American community; however, there is a lack of rigorously validated nutrition education evaluation tools in Tagalog for use in this population. This study aimed to develop and evaluate the face validity of a Tagalog-language food behavior checklist (FBC). A multi-step method was used, involving translation of questionnaire text from English to Tagalog by a team of professionals, creation of accompanying color photographs, cognitive testing with the target population, final review by the team of professionals, and assessment of readability. Subjects for cognitive testing were men (n=6) and women (n=14) 18 years or older in Hawai'i who received or were eligible to receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, self-identified as Filipino, and preferred Tagalog rather than English. Participants were recruited from churches, the Filipino Center, and other community sites. Cognitive interviews revealed several issues with text and photographs, such as preferences for specific terms, and images that did not adequately illustrate the text. Image changes were made to reflect items most commonly consumed. The team of professionals agreed with participant suggestions. Assessment of readability revealed a reading level appropriate for a low-literacy population of grade 5.9. The multi-step process, which allowed members of the target audience to reveal the appropriateness of the questionnaire, yielded a Tagalog-language FBC found to have adequate face validity. After further evaluation of validity and reliability, this tool may be used to evaluate behavior change resulting from the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) nutrition education programs. PMID:26535163

  11. Food Security in Australia in an Era of Neoliberalism, Productivism and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Geoffrey; Richards, Carol; Lyons, Kristen

    2013-01-01

    For over 150 years Australia has exported bulk, undifferentiated, commodities such as wool, wheat, meat and sugar to the UK and more recently to Japan, Korea, and the Middle East. It is estimated that, each year, Australia's farming system feeds a domestic population of some 22 million people, while exporting enough food to feed another 40…

  12. The fundament of food, crop protein production, is threatened by climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Gislum, René; Jørgensen, Johannes Ravn;

    2016-01-01

    Income growth, urbanization, and changes in lifestyles and food preferences combined with continuing population growth lead to increasing demand for plant protein production worldwide. All the proteins we eat are produced by crops, including the proteins we get from animals, which initially come...

  13. Will climate change exceed the resilience limits of western Canadian peatlands?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turetsky, M. R.; Benscoter, B.; Olefeldt, D.

    2014-12-01

    Northern peatlands have served as persistent, small sinks of atmospheric CO2 throughout the Holocene. In western Canada, peatlands exist on the drier spectrum of global peatland distributions. As a result, peatlands in this region are drier (e.g., no/few open pools in bogs and poor fens) and all bogs are treed. Because they occupy this climate space, continental peatlands might be regarded as being vulnerable to future warming and drying. On the other hand, these peatlands and their plant communities might already be adapted to drier conditions, conferring some resistance to climate change. The position of the water table within a peatland serves as a dominant control on peat accumulation rates, as it influences plant structure and productivity, decomposition, and dissolved carbon export. Many studies predict that lower water table position, in response to enhanced evapotranspiration or drought, will cause peatlands to release stored C back to the atmosphere, indicative of a state change to an ecosystem type that no longer supports long-term peat accumulation. A 10-yr drainage experiment at the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX) sites showed that lowering the water table made a rich fen more of an atmospheric C source, primarily by altering plant species composition and lowering plant primary production rather than by increasing soil CO2 flux. Multi-decadal drainage of Canadian peatlands also resulted in changes in plant species composition, with increasing tree and shrub canopy coverage and declines in moss abundance. Increased forestation in western Canadian peatlands will have large impacts on fire danger, which also has the potential to cause long-term shifts in plant and ecosystem structure, either through severe burning of surface peat layers or by inducing permafrost thaw. This talk will present findings from empirical and modeling studies examining peatland responses to warming, drought, permafrost thaw, and wildfires. Within the context of these dominant

  14. Failed development and vulnerability to climate change in central Asia: implications for food security and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janes, Craig R

    2010-07-01

    This article presents results of research undertaken to identify factors that affect the vulnerability of rural Mongolian herders to climate change. Findings suggest that models of market development instituted since 1990 have failed to recognize and support key elements of the pastoralist adaptive strategy. A retreating state presence has led to the collapse of regulatory regimes needed to safeguard critical common resources. This in turn has produced considerable social differentiation in the countryside, a breakdown in cooperative institutions, and conflicts over water and pasture. In a context of climate change, these changes seriously threaten the sustainability of the rural economy, leading to livelihood insecurity, growing rural poverty, and increasing rates of migration to shantytowns surrounding the capital city of Ulaanbaatar. The newly vulnerable poor are at higher risk for poor health and malnutrition. PMID:20566560

  15. Seasonal Shift in Climatic Limiting Factors on Tree Transpiration: Evidence from Sap Flow Observations at Alpine Treelines in Southeast Tibet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xinsheng; Nie, Yuqin; Luo, Tianxiang; Yu, Jiehui; Shen, Wei; Zhang, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria) treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0°C. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.

  16. Seasonal Shift in Climatic Limiting Factors on Tree Transpiration: Evidence from Sap Flow Observations at Alpine Treelines in Southeast Tibet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xinsheng; Nie, Yuqin; Luo, Tianxiang; Yu, Jiehui; Shen, Wei; Zhang, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria) treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0°C. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.

  17. Seasonal shift in climatic limiting factors on tree transpiration: evidence from sap flow observations at alpine treelines in southeast Tibet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xinsheng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0 oC. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.

  18. The effect of using consumption taxes on foods to promote climate friendly diets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edjabou, Louise Dyhr; Smed, Sinne

    2013-01-01

    policy instrument to decrease emissions from agriculture than a tax based directly on emissions from production. In this study, we look at the effect of internalising the social costs of greenhouse gas emissions through a tax based on CO2 equivalents for 23 different foods. Furthermore, we compare......Agriculture is responsible for 17–35% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions with livestock production contributing by approximately 18–22% of global emissions. Due to high monitoring costs and low technical potential for emission reductions, a tax on consumption may be a more efficient...... the loss in consumer surplus and the changed dietary composition for different taxation scenarios. In the most efficient scenario, we find a decrease in the carbon footprint from foods for an average household of 2.3–8.8% at a cost of 0.15–1.73 DKK per kg CO2 equivalent whereas the most effective scenario...

  19. Etude Climat no. 39 'More than 800 agricultural and agri-food sites affected by the EU ETS'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: Agriculture accounts for 9% of Europe's anthropogenic emissions, counting only emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from cattle, crops and pasture. These emissions have two characteristics making their inclusion in the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) difficult: they are diffuse and depend on a range of fairly complex pedo-climatic factors. Taking into consideration the whole of the agricultural sector, including upstream activities such as production of fertilizer, phyto-sanitary products, animal feed etc., as well as downstream emissions, dominated by the agri-food sector, and also emissions linked to energy consumption by farming installations, the sector's emissions contribution increases considerably. Within this expanded scope, some emissions sources are included in the EU ETS - mainly agri-food industries, but also producers of fertilizer, heated greenhouses and knackers' yards. Even if the proportion of the agricultural and agri-food sector's emissions covered by the emissions trading scheme is minimal, with just 1.5% of all emissions falling within the scope of the EU ETS, more than 800 industrial sites are covered, accounting for 8% of installations covered by the system. The agricultural and agri-food sector are among the net beneficiaries of the EU ETS in the first two phases (2005-2012), with a surplus of 33 million allowances over the period 2008-2011. This surplus, combined with gains from trading in allowances and credits, represents an estimated asset of 495 million euros. Although it has not been fully exploited on the market, this asset largely exceeds the cost of transactions associated with emissions monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) procedures and compliance work, which is estimated at 30 million euros over the same period. The emission trading scheme has therefore been

  20. Estimated general population control limits for unitary agents in drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, A.P.; Adams, J.D.; Cerar, R.J.; Hess, T.L.; Kistner, S.L.; Leffingwell, S.S.; MacIntosh, R.G.; Ward, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    In the event of an unplanned release of chemical agent during any stage of the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (CSDP), the potential exists for contamination of drinking water, forage crops, grains, garden produce, and livestock. Persistent agents such as VX or sulfur mustard pose the greatest human health concern for reentry. This White Paper has been prepared to provide technical bases for these decisions by developing working estimates of agent control limits in selected environmental media considered principal sources of potential human exposure. To date, control limits for public exposure to unitary agents have been established for atmospheric concentrations only. The current analysis builds on previous work to calculate working estimates of control limits for ingestion and dermal exposure to potentially contaminated drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items such as garden produce. Information characterizing agent desorption from, and detection on or in, contaminated porous media are presently too developed to permit reasonable estimation of dermal exposure from this source. Thus, dermal contact with potentially contaminated porous surfaces is not considered in this document.

  1. Geographic variation of surface energy partitioning in the climatic mean predicted from the maximum power limit

    CERN Document Server

    Dhara, Chirag; Kleidon, Axel

    2015-01-01

    Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and mass balances alone. We use a simple energy balance model in which convective fluxes and surface temperatures are determined with the additional thermodynamic limit of maximum convective power. We then show that the broad geographic variation of heat fluxes and surface temperatures in the climatological mean compare very well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis over land and ocean. We also show that the estimates depend considerably on the formulation of longwave radiative transfer and that a spatially uniform offset is related to the assumed cold temperature sink at which the heat engine operates.

  2. Limitations of a coupled regional climate model in the reproduction of the observed Arctic sea-ice retreat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Dorn

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The effects of internal model variability on the simulation of Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been examined with the aid of a seven-member ensemble with a coupled regional climate model for the period 1948–2008. Beyond general weaknesses related to insufficient representation of feedback processes, it is found that the model's ability to reproduce observed summer sea-ice retreat depends mainly on two factors: the correct simulation of the atmospheric circulation during the summer months and the sea-ice volume at the beginning of the melting period. Since internal model variability shows its maximum during the summer months, the ability to reproduce the observed atmospheric summer circulation is limited. In addition, the atmospheric circulation during summer also significantly affects the sea-ice volume over the years, leading to a limited ability to start with reasonable sea-ice volume into the melting period. Furthermore, the sea-ice volume pathway shows notable decadal variability which amplitude varies among the ensemble members. The scatter is particularly large in periods when the ice volume increases, indicating limited skill in reproducing high-ice years.

  3. Exposure to a heat wave under food limitation makes an agricultural insecticide lethal: a mechanistic laboratory experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinh, Khuong V; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2016-10-01

    Extreme temperatures and exposure to agricultural pesticides are becoming more frequent and intense under global change. Their combination may be especially problematic when animals suffer food limitation. We exposed Coenagrion puella damselfly larvae to a simulated heat wave combined with food limitation and subsequently to a widespread agricultural pesticide (chlorpyrifos) in an indoor laboratory experiment designed to obtain mechanistic insights in the direct effects of these stressors in isolation and when combined. The heat wave reduced immune function (activity of phenoloxidase, PO) and metabolic rate (activity of the electron transport system, ETS). Starvation had both immediate and delayed negative sublethal effects on growth rate and physiology (reductions in Hsp70 levels, total fat content, and activity levels of PO and ETS). Exposure to chlorpyrifos negatively affected all response variables. While the immediate effects of the heat wave were subtle, our results indicate the importance of delayed effects in shaping the total fitness impact of a heat wave when followed by pesticide exposure. Firstly, the combination of delayed negative effects of the heat wave and starvation, and the immediate negative effect of chlorpyrifos considerably (71%) reduced larval growth rate. Secondly and more strikingly, chlorpyrifos only caused considerable (ca. 48%) mortality in larvae that were previously exposed to the combination of the heat wave and starvation. This strong delayed synergism for mortality could be explained by the cumulative metabolic depression caused by each of these stressors. Further studies with increased realism are needed to evaluate the consequences of the here-identified delayed synergisms at the level of populations and communities. This is especially important as this synergism provides a novel explanation for the poorly understood potential of heat waves and of sublethal pesticide concentrations to cause mass mortality. PMID:27390895

  4. Intra- and trans-generational costs of reduced female body size caused by food limitation early in life in mites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Walzer

    Full Text Available Food limitation early in life may be compensated for by developmental plasticity resulting in accelerated development enhancing survival at the expense of small adult body size. However and especially for females in non-matching maternal and offspring environments, being smaller than the standard may incur considerable intra- and trans-generational costs.Here, we evaluated the costs of small female body size induced by food limitation early in life in the sexually size-dimorphic predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. Females are larger than males. These predators are adapted to exploit ephemeral spider mite prey patches. The intra- and trans-generational effects of small maternal body size manifested in lower maternal survival probabilities, decreased attractiveness for males, and a reduced number and size of eggs compared to standard-sized females. The trans-generational effects of small maternal body size were sex-specific with small mothers producing small daughters but standard-sized sons.Small female body size apparently intensified the well-known costs of sexual activity because mortality of small but not standard-sized females mainly occurred shortly after mating. The disadvantages of small females in mating and egg production may be generally explained by size-associated morphological and physiological constraints. Additionally, size-assortative mate preferences of standard-sized mates may have rendered small females disproportionally unattractive mating partners. We argue that the sex-specific trans-generational effects were due to sexual size dimorphism - females are the larger sex and thus more strongly affected by maternal stress than the smaller males - and to sexually selected lower plasticity of male body size.

  5. Exploring the nexus between climate change, food security, and deforestation in Q'eqchi' Maya communities, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, I.; Harbor, J.

    2013-12-01

    The challenges of food security in the central Highlands of Guatemala are linked to deforestation, land degradation, and climate change. The Q'eqchi' Maya people that inhabit this region are smallholder farmers who rely on subsistence agriculture for survival. The Q'eqchi' support themselves with timber products and ecosystem services provided by the cloud forest, a unique ecosystem where a substantial portion of water is obtained through the condensation of water droplets onto vegetation via cloud filtration. Over the past 30 years, small-scale deforestation of the cloud forest in the Sierra Yalijux and Sacranix has increased as demand for agricultural land has risen. A link between the decline of cloud forest cover and an increase in severe precipitation events that drive soil erosion has been observed in the study area. As a result, land degradation poses a serious threat to the long-term food security of Q'eqchi' communities. We have examined the social, cultural, and land tenure dynamics that impact the ability of the Q'eqchi' to adapt to the rapidly changing climate, as well as to implement recommendations for grassroots initiatives to enhance these adaptations. Using remote-sensing we constructed three land use change maps that show that deforestation rates have increased by over 200% between 1986-2006 in the Sierra Yaljux and Sacranix mountain ranges, largely due to slash and burn agriculture. Using these land use change maps as an input into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation we show that implementation of agroecological techniques to counter the impacts of land use change drastically reduces soil erosion and is the best management practice. Surveys and focus groups in several Q'eqchi' villages revealed that precipitation events have become less frequent and more intense over the past 30 years, and temperatures have generally been increasing as well. Q'eqchi' people have observed that increasing severe precipitation events have accelerated soil

  6. Investigating the effects of food available and climatic variables on the animal host density of hemorrhagic Fever with renal syndrome in changsha, china.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xiao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is influenced by population dynamics of its main host, rodents. It is therefore important to better understand rodents' characteristic in epidemic areas. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examined the potential impact of food available and climatic variability on HFRS rodent host and developed forecasting models. Monthly rodent density of HFRS host and climate data in Changsha from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained. Monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI and temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI for rice paddies were extracted from MODIS data. Cross-correlation analysis were carried out to explore correlation between climatic variables and food available with monthly rodent data. We used auto-regressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables and food supply to rodent density. The results indicated that relative rodent density of HFRS host was significantly correlated with monthly mean temperatures, monthly accumulative precipitation, TVDI and NDVI with lags of 1-6 months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Food available plays a significant role in population fluctuations of HFRS host in Changsha. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

  7. Simulation modelling and risk assessment as tools to identify the impact of climate change on microbiological food safety – The case study of fresh produce supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacxsens, L.; Luning, P.A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Devlieghere, F.; Leemans, R.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    The current quality assurance and control tools and methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to the following pressures upon the food supply chain, i.e. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. It demonstrates

  8. Resource limits and conversion efficiency with implications for climate change and California's energy supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Gregory Donald

    on aggregated reserve numbers. Electric power generation consumes 92 percent of U.S. coal production. Natural gas competes with coal as a baseload power generation fuel with similar or slightly better generation efficiency. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, described in Chapter 2, creates transportation fuel from coal with an efficiency of less than 45 percent. Claims of higher efficiencies are based on waste heat recovery, since this is a highly exothermic process. The yield of liquid fuel as a proportion of the energy content of the coal input is always less than 45 percent. Compressed natural gas can be used for vehicle fuel with efficiency greater than 98 percent. If we view Fischer-Tropsch synthesis as a form of arbitrage between markets for electricity and transportation fuel, coal cannot simultaneously compete with natural gas for both transportation fuel and electric power. This is because Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is a way to turn power generation fuel into transportation fuel with low efficiency, while natural gas can be converted to transportation fuel with much greater efficiency. For this reason, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis will be an uneconomic source of transportation fuel as long as natural gas is economic for power generation. This conclusion holds even without the very high capital cost of coal-to-liquids plants. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has generated forty carbon production and emissions scenarios, see the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000). Chapter 4 develops a base-case scenario for global coal production based on the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data. Areas with large resources but little production history, such as Alaska or Eastern Siberia, can be treated as sensitivities on top of this base case. The value of our approach is that it provides a reality check on the magnitude of carbon emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The resulting base case is significantly

  9. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  10. Trends in greenhouse gas emissions from consumption and production of animal food products - implications for long-term climate targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cederberg, C; Hedenus, F; Wirsenius, S; Sonesson, U

    2013-02-01

    -increase target of 2° might imply a severe constraint on the long-term global consumption of animal food. Due to the relatively limited potential for reducing food-related emissions by higher productivity and technological means, structural changes in food consumption towards less emission-intensive food might be required for meeting the 2° target.

  11. Proceedings of the 65. conference of the Ordre des agronomes du Quebec : Effects of climate change on agriculture and agri-food sectors : local solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This conference provided a forum for the exchange of scientific knowledge concerning new management tools and agricultural practices that will ensure sustainable development in the agriculture and agri-food sectors in Quebec in light of climate change. Agricultural practices were examined in an effort to see how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be reduced. A review of the knowledge accumulated to date on climate change was presented along with a look at the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on Quebec's agricultural sector. Climate and the greenhouse effect were discussed, with particular emphasis on a European perspective of the agricultural sector. Nine presenters also participated in 3 smaller conferences on specific themes which examined GHG sources and methods to reduce emissions in animal and plant production. The impacts of climate change and adaptation methods in Quebec were discussed. Twelve of the 13 papers were indexed separately for inclusion in this database

  12. Soil Carbon Sequestration Impacts on Global Climate Change and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lal, R.

    2004-06-01

    The carbon sink capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils is 50 to 66% of the historic carbon loss of 42 to 78 gigatons of carbon. The rate of soil organic carbon sequestration with adoption of recommended technologies depends on soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature, farming system, and soil management. Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growing energy crops on spare lands. An increase of 1 ton of soil carbon pool of degraded cropland soils may increase crop yield by 20 to 40 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) for wheat, 10 to 20 kg/ha for maize, and 0.5 to 1 kg/ha for cowpeas. As well as enhancing food security, carbon sequestration has the potential to offset fossil-fuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons of carbon per year, or 5 to 15% of the global fossil-fuel emissions.

  13. BUSINESS CLIMATE OF FOOD FIRMS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMS FACED BY FOOD MANUFACTURERS, WHOLESALERS, RETAILERS AND SERVICE INSTITUTIONS IN NEW JERSEY

    OpenAIRE

    Adelaja, Adesoji O.; Nayga, Rodolfo M.; Tank, Karen Rose; Schilling, Brian J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents the problems facing food firms using information from focus groups of industry executives from New Jersey. The leading problems for food manufacturers are related to regulation, taxation, economic development, and high business costs. For food wholesalers the leading problems are transportation, regulation, labor quality, training and education, and public relations. Food retailers cite litigation and liability, high business costs, regulation, and insurance costs as leadi...

  14. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Rosol

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods: Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results: A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions: If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  15. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    Background The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival. PMID:27388896

  16. Mismatches in Phenology of Birds and Their Food Due to Climate Change: Big Data, Analytical Challenges, and Scale Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayor, S.; Andrew, M. E.; Elmendorf, S.; Guralnick, R. P.; Minor, E. S.; Schneider, D.; Tersigni, V.; Thibault, K. M.; Tingley, M. W.; Withey, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    We explored analytical issues that come with challenging ecological concepts against large data sets. As an example, we examined the expected mismatch between the phenology (annual timing) of endothermic migratory birds with the phenology of primarily ectothermic (degree-day dependent) food resources. We hypothesized that bird phenology, which is often tightly hormonally tied to day length cues would be increasing out of phase the phenology of their food resources, due to increases in both mean and variability of spring temperatures. Specifically, we tested whether bird populations have been able to match their migration times to the timing of spring 'greenup', when food resources become plentiful. If not, we also test if suboptimal migration timing resulted in negative fitness consequences for individual bird species? We expected (1) a mismatch between optimal migration time and observed migration time; (2) greater variation in mean timing of ectothermic prey resources than migratory arrival of endothermic birds; (3) higher per capita survival and reproduction of species with the smallest optimal/observed migration timing mismatch. We tested these expectations with rich datasets extensive in both time and space. We brought together nearly a decade of migratory arrival records for over 100 bird species across the continental U.S. (eBird) with remotely sensed (MODIS) time of spring greenup, which is concurrent with insect abundance, and survival and reproduction estimates for each bird species (MAPS). In testing these questions with large data sets, we encountered several challenges. First, selecting the spatial scale(s) of analyses involve a priori estimation of scale(s) at which birds select food resources, and mismatches depend on analytical scale. To assess a mismatch in phenology (between birds and food), we attempted to minimize a mismatch in scales (between analyses and phenomena). Second, forming causal linkages between variables relied on previous

  17. [Cultural detection of thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. in food--potentials and limitations of diagnostic tools in the context of official food control].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messelhäusser, Ute; Thärigen, Diana; Fella, Christiane; Schreiner, Hermann; Busch, Ulrich; Höller, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    Thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. rank among the most important foodborne pathogens in Germany. Therefore a necessity for rapid and routinely useable detection methods exists also in the area of food microbiology. A reliable, cultura qualitative, but also quantitative detection of thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. pose a challenge, at least concerning special food matrices, especially because in the context of official food control the cultural detection of thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. is needed. This was the reason, why different cultural detection methods, beside the standard procedure of ISO 10272:2006, in combination with molecular and immunological screening methods were tested at the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority (LGL) during the last years for the use in routine diagnostic using different food matrices of animal and plant origin. The results of the comparative studies showed clearly that no enrichment broth tested gave completely satisfactory results for an only culture-based detection the combination with a screening method is therefore recommended for a rapid and reliable detection. But in this case the user should take into account that the sensitivity of such molecular and immunological methods is normally so high that in some cases, depending on the food matrix and processing step, the isolation of the pathogen would not be possible in samples, which were positive in the screening methods.

  18. Climate driven changes in hydrology, nutrient cycling, and food web dynamics in surface waters of the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, J. C.; Wipfli, M.; Schmutz, J.; Gurney, K.

    2011-12-01

    Arctic ecosystems are changing rapidly as a result of a warming climate. While many areas of the arctic are expected to dry as a result of warming, the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, which extends from the Brooks Range north to the Beaufort Sea will likely become wetter, because subsurface hydrologic fluxes are constrained by thick, continuous permafrost. This landscape is characterized by large, oriented lakes and many smaller ponds that form in the low centers and troughs/edges of frost polygons. This region provides important breeding habitat for many migratory birds including loons, arctic terns, eiders, shorebirds, and white-fronted geese, among others. Increased hydrologic fluxes may provide a bottom-up control on the success of these species by altering the availability of food resources including invertebrates and fish. This work aimed to 1) characterize surface water fluxes and nutrient availability in the small streams and lake types of two study regions in the ACP, 2) predict how increased hydrological fluxes will affect the lakes, streams, and water chemistry, and 3) use nutrient additions to simulate likely changes in lake chemistry and invertebrate availability. Initial observations suggest that increasing wetland areas and availability of nutrients will result in increased invertebrate abundance, while the potential for drainage and terrestrialization of larger lakes may reduce fish abundance and overwintering habitat. These changes will likely have positive implications for insectivores and negative implications for piscivorous waterfowl.

  19. Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Maria C; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S; Pinto, Joaquim G; Bugalho, Miguel N; Werner, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

  20. Projecting range limits with coupled thermal tolerance - climate change models: an example based on gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus along the U.S. east coast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan A Hare

    Full Text Available We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65% to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.

  1. Interactions of Climate Change and Nitrogen Management for Optimizing Crop Productivity and Food Security while Minimizing Nitrogen Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, E. A.; Suddick, E. C.

    2012-12-01

    Producing food, transportation, and energy for seven billion people has led to huge increases in use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuels, resulting in large releases of N as air and water pollution. In its numerous chemical forms, N plays a critical role in all aspects of climate change, including mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. Here we report on a multi-authored, interdisciplinary technical report on climate-nitrogen interactions submitted to the US National Climate Assessment as part of a Research Coordination Network activity. Management of the N cycle not only affects emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitrogen oxides (NOX), but also impacts carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), through effects on carbon cycling processes in forests and soils and the effects on atmospheric reactions of ozone (O3) and CH4. While some of these direct and indirect N effects have a short-term cooling effect, the warming effects of N2O dominate at long time scales. The challenges of mitigating N2O emissions are substantially different from those for CO2 and CH4, because N is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. On one hand, improved agricultural nutrient management can confer some adaptive capacity of crops to climatic variability, but, on the other hand, increased climatic variability will render the task more difficult to manage nutrients for the optimization of crop productivity while minimizing N losses to the environment. Higher air temperatures will result in a "climate penalty" for air quality mitigation efforts, because larger NOX emissions reductions will be needed to achieve the same reductions of O3 pollution under higher temperatures, thus imposing further challenges to avoid harmful impacts on human health and crop productivity. Changes in river discharge, due to summer drought and to extreme precipitation events, will affect the transport of N from agricultural fields to

  2. Limited Dissemination of Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase- and Plasmid-Encoded AmpC-Producing Escherichia coli from Food and Farm Animals, Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börjesson, Stefan; Ny, Sofia; Egervärn, Maria; Bergström, Jakob; Rosengren, Åsa; Englund, Stina; Löfmark, Sonja; Byfors, Sara

    2016-04-01

    Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)- and plasmid-encoded ampC (pAmpC)-producing Enterobacteriaceae might spread from farm animals to humans through food. However, most studies have been limited in number of isolates tested and areas studied. We examined genetic relatedness of 716 isolates from 4,854 samples collected from humans, farm animals, and foods in Sweden to determine whether foods and farm animals might act as reservoirs and dissemination routes for ESBL/pAmpC-producing Escherichia coli. Results showed that clonal spread to humans appears unlikely. However, we found limited dissemination of genes encoding ESBL/pAmpC and plasmids carrying these genes from foods and farm animals to healthy humans and patients. Poultry and chicken meat might be a reservoir and dissemination route to humans. Although we found no evidence of clonal spread of ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli from farm animals or foods to humans, ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli with identical genes and plasmids were present in farm animals, foods, and humans. PMID:26982890

  3. Extreme drought event and shrub invasion combine to reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Maria; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa; Pinto, Joaquim; Bugalho, Miguel; Werner, Christiane

    2016-04-01

    ). Caldeira M.C., Lecomte X., David T.S., Pinto J.G., Bugalho M.N. & Werner C. (2015). Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates. Scientific Reports, 5, 15110.

  4. The Role of Traditional Knowledge and Crop Varieties in Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in SW China, Bolivian Andes and coastal Kenya

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiderska, Krystyna; Reid, Hannah; Song, Yiching; Li, Jingsong; Mutta, Doris; Ongugo, Paul; Pakia, Mohamed; Oros, Rolando; Barriga, Sandra

    2011-09-15

    Paper prepared for the UNU-IAS workshop on Indigenous Peoples, Marginalised Populations and Climate Change: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Traditional Knowledge, Mexico, July 2011. Indigenous peoples and local communities often live in harsh natural environments, and have had to cope with extreme weather and adapt to environmental change for centuries in order to survive. They have done this using long standing traditions and practices – or traditional knowledge (TK) – relating to adaptive ecosystem management and sustainable use of natural resources. The three case studies presented provide evidence of the crucial role of traditional crop varieties, knowledge and practices in enabling adaption to changes in climate. The question is whether the climatic changes observed in these cases are human induced climate change or just natural changes. The findings show that indigenous farmers in SW China, coastal Kenya and the Bolivian Andes are already severely impacted by changes in climate, including drought, with serious consequences for crop production and food security. The scale of the changes, and the fact that they have occurred quite recently (in the last 10 or 20 years), suggests that they may be the result of human induced climate change.

  5. Application of the Central Limit Theorem in microbial risk assessment: High number of serving reduces the Coefficient of Variation of food-borne burden-of-illness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, F.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2012-01-01

    The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is proposed as a means of understanding microbial risk in foods from a Public Health perspective. One variant of the CLT states that as the number of random variables, each with a finite mean and variance, increases (¿8), the distribution of the sum (or mean) of those

  6. A synthesis of bentho-pelagic coupling on the Antarctic shelf: Food banks, ecosystem inertia and global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Craig R.; Mincks, Sarah; DeMaster, David J.

    2006-04-01

    The Antarctic continental shelf is large, deep (500-1000 m), and characterized by extreme seasonality in sea-ice cover and primary production. Intense seasonality and short pelagic foodwebs on the Antarctic shelf may favor strong bentho-pelagic coupling, whereas unusual water depth combined with complex topography and circulation could cause such coupling to be weak. Here, we address six questions regarding the nature and strength of coupling between benthic and water-column processes on the continental shelf surrounding Antarctica. We find that water-column production is transmitted to the shelf floor in intense pulses of particulate organic matter, although these pulses are often difficult to correlate with local phytoplankton blooms or sea-ice conditions. On regional scales, benthic habitat variability resulting from substrate type, current regime, and iceberg scour often may obscure the imprint of water-column productivity on the seafloor. However, within a single habitat type, i.e. the muddy sediments that characterize much of the deep Antarctic shelf, macrobenthic biomass appears to be correlated with regional primary production and sea-ice duration. Over annual time-scales, many benthic ecological processes were initially expected to vary in phase with the extraordinary boom/bust cycle of production in the water column. However, numerous processes, including sediment respiration, deposit feeding, larval development, and recruitment, often are poorly coupled to the summer bloom season. Several integrative, time-series studies on the Antarctic shelf suggest that this lack of phasing may result in part from the accumulation of a persistent sediment food bank that buffers the benthic ecosystem from the seasonal variability of the water column. As a consequence, a variety of benthic parameters (e.g., sediment respiration, inventories of labile organic matter, macrobenthic biomass) may act as "low-pass" filters, responding to longer-term (e.g., inter

  7. facing the challenges of climate change and food security : the role of research, extension and communication for development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwis, C.; Hall, A.; Weperen, van W.; Preissing, J.

    2013-01-01

    In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this study defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This report is a shortened version of the final study report, produced on request of FAO. The p

  8. Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change Impacts on Wind Energy Resources in the Contiguous United States by Using a Limited-Area Model with Scale-Selective Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a limited-area model (LAM in combination with the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA approach, wind energy resources in the contiguous United States (CONUS were downscaled from IPCC CCSM3 global model projections for both current and future climate conditions. An assessment of climate change impacts on wind energy resources in the CONUS region was then conducted. Based on the downscaling results, when projecting into future climate under IPCC’s A1B scenario, the average annual wind speed experiences an overall shift across the CONUS region. From the current climate to the 2040s, the average annual wind speed is expected to increase from 0.1 to 0.2 m s−1 over the Great Plains, Northern Great Lakes Region, and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rocky Mountains. When projecting into the 2090s from current climate, there is an overall increase in the Great Plains Region and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rockies with a mean wind speed increase between 0 and 0.1 m s−1, while, the Northern Great Lakes Region experiences an even greater increase from current climate to 2090s than over the first few decades with an increase of mean wind speed from 0.1 to 0.4 m s−1.

  9. The impact of initiatives to limit the advertising of food and beverage products to children: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith-Emami, S; Lobstein, T

    2013-12-01

    In response to increasing evidence that advertising of foods and beverages affects children's food choices and food intake, several national governments and many of the world's larger food and beverage manufacturers have acted to restrict the marketing of their products to children or to advertise only 'better for you' products or 'healthier dietary choices' to children. Independent assessment of the impact of these pledges has been difficult due to the different criteria being used in regulatory and self-regulatory regimes. In this paper, we undertook a systematic review to examine the data available on levels of exposure of children to the advertising of less healthy foods since the introduction of the statutory and voluntary codes. The results indicate a sharp division in the evidence, with scientific, peer-reviewed papers showing that high levels of such advertising of less healthy foods continue to be found in several different countries worldwide. In contrast, the evidence provided in industry-sponsored reports indicates a remarkably high adherence to voluntary codes. We conclude that adherence to voluntary codes may not sufficiently reduce the advertising of foods which undermine healthy diets, or reduce children's exposure to this advertising. PMID:23845093

  10. Genetic diversity and ecological niche modelling of wild barley: refugia, large-scale post-LGM range expansion and limited mid-future climate threats?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne Russell

    Full Text Available Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare. Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security.

  11. Long-term increase of fat mass after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limitation of physical activity

    OpenAIRE

    Ernersson, Åsa; Nyström, Fredrik; Lindström, Torbjörn

    2010-01-01

    Background: A sedentary lifestyle and increased consumption of energy dense food have become more common in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to study long term effects on body composition after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limited physical activity in young normal weight subjects. Method: Eighteen subjects, mean age 26 (6.6) years, increased their energy intake with in average 70% and physical activity were not to exceed 5000 steps/day...

  12. The use of whole food animal studies in the safety assessment of genetically modified crops: Limitations and recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Bartholomaeus, Andrew; Parrott, Wayne; Bondy, Genevieve; Walker, Kate

    2013-01-01

    There is disagreement internationally across major regulatory jurisdictions on the relevance and utility of whole food (WF) toxicity studies on GM crops, with no harmonization of data or regulatory requirements. The scientific value, and therefore animal ethics, of WF studies on GM crops is a matter addressable from the wealth of data available on commercialized GM crops and WF studies on irradiated foods. We reviewed available GM crop WF studies and considered the extent to which they add to...

  13. CoP in focus : community of practice on metropolitan food clusters, resource use efficiency and climate adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kranendonk, R.P.; Hoechstetter, S.; Castillo, A.; Smeets, P.J.A.M.; Mansfeld, van M.J.M.; Eetgerink, F.; Cserhaty, M.; Kalas, N.; Schneider, U.

    2014-01-01

    This Pathfinder project develops a focused EU Community of Practice (CoP) on development of Agro food-clusters that focuses on innovation of high tech, large scale, industrialized and sustainable agriculture and food production for Metropoles. The Metropolitan food clusters significantly contribute

  14. Food, land and greenhouse gases The effect of changes in UK food consumption on land requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. Report for the Committee on Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    Audsley, Eric; Angus, Andrew; Chatterton, Julia C.; Graves, Anil R.; Morris, Joe; Murphy-Bokern,Donal; Pearn, Kerry R.; Sandars, Daniel L.; Williams, Adrian G

    2010-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY •1. Key findingsThis study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It a...

  15. Adapting to climate change for food security through supplementary irrigation and changing sowing dates in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muluneh Bitew, Alemayehu; Stroosnijder, Leo; keesstra, Saskia

    2015-04-01

    Studies on climate impacts and related adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming important to counteract the negative effects of climate change. In Ethiopia, climate change is likely to affect crop yields negatively. However, quantitative evidence is lacking about the ability of farm level adaptation options to offset negative impacts on food security. The MarkSimGCM weather generator was used to generate projected daily rainfall and temperature data originally taken from ECHAM5 general circulation model and ensemble mean of six models under A2 (high) and B1 (low) emission scenarios. We validated the FAO AquaCrop model and subsequently used it to predict maize yields and explore three adaptations options. Increasing plant density has the least effect on maize yield so that the density that is currently used by 'good' farmers (30,000) is recommended. The optimum level of supplemental irrigation (SI), in combination with this plant density, is application of SI when the percentage of soil water depletion reached 75% of the maximum available water in the root zone. In the future, dry spells during the Belg season increase and this has a negative effect on maize production. The predicted lower maize production due to the changing rainfall is only partly compensated by the expected increase in CO2 concentration. The shifting of sowing period of maize from the current Belg season (mostly April or May) to the first month of Kiremt season (June) can offset the predicted yield reduction caused by climate change. SI has a marginal effect in good rainfall years but using 94-111 mm of SI can avoid total crop failure in drought years. Hence, SI is an interesting option to improve food security in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia. Key words: Adaptation; Climate change; Central Rift Valley; Dry spell; Supplemental irrigation.

  16. Quantifying Risks in the Global Water-Food-Climate Nexus in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K.; Arndt, C.; Gueneau, A.; Cai, Y.; Gao, X.; Robinson, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Thurlow, J.

    2011-12-01

    The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional climate change calls for the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Moreover, our global water resources include energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate. With the prospect of potential climate change and associated shifts in hydrologic variation and extremes, the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, in collaboration with UNU-WIDER, has enhanced its capabilities to model impacts (or effects) on the managed water-resource systems. We first present a hybrid approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved patterns from archived climate-model projections. From these, a river routing and water-resource management module allocates water among irrigation, hydropower, urban/industrial, and in-stream uses and investigate how society might adapt water resources due to shifts in hydro-climate variations and extremes. These results are then incorporated into economic models allowing us to consider the implications of climate for growth, land use, and development prospects. In this model-based investigation, we consider how changes in the regional hydro-climate over major river basins in southern Africa, Vietnam, as well as the United States impact agricultural productivity and water-management systems, and whether adaptive strategies can cope with the more severe climate-related threats to growth and development. All this is cast under a probabilistic description of regional climate changes encompassed by the IGSM framework.

  17. Food for Thought: Frequent Interracial Dining Experiences as a Predictor of Students' Racial Climate Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Maria R.; Byron, Reginald A.; Ferry, Griffin; Garcia, Melissa

    2013-01-01

    This article describes a study that explored factors which influenced undergraduate students' perceptions of the racial climate at a predominantly white liberal arts university in the South. Mixed methods results suggest that race, aspects of the institutional climate, and frequent interracial dining experiences in the campus cafeteria…

  18. PCDD/PCDF and dioxin-like PCBs in animal fat samples from Switzerland. A monitoring program for revising Swiss food limits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rottler, H. [Eurofins Oekometric, Bayreuth (Germany); Wuethrich, C.; Kuchen, A. [Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Liebefeld (Switzerland)

    2004-09-15

    The European Commission (EC) stipulated maximum levels for dioxins in food in 2001 as an outcome result of their strategy to reduce dioxin and PCB levels. At that time the data base for dioxin-like PCBs was regarded as insufficient to include maximum levels for PCBs. Consequently, a study was initiated by the EC on a European-wide scale to collect information on dioxin-like PCBs in feed and food. The decision on European limits for dioxin-like PCBs is announced for end of 2004. As Switzerland is not a member of the European Union, European Commission limits are not valid per se and must be reassessed. As laid down in the Swiss Food Law it is the task of the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (SFOPH) to collect the basic information necessary for initiating appropriate measures to protect consumers from foodstuff that could adversely affect their health. In this context information about total dioxin intake of the Swiss population is necessary. In view of the upcoming revision of the Swiss Ordinance on Foreign and Toxic Components in Foodstuffs (FIV) which should integrate limits for dioxins in food, it is now important to know whether the maximum contaminant limit for dioxins as fixed by the European Commission is also appropriate for Swiss consumer protection purposes. To answer this question and to fill existing data gaps in view of a more accurate calculation of the total dioxin intake of the Swiss population, an additional dioxin monitoring program started end of 2003 especially focusing on animal fat. Dioxin-like PCBs were included to complete the Swiss data base and to assess the Swiss intake situation for these compounds just in time before the corresponding European activities on dioxinlike PCBs.

  19. Consumer perceptions of environmentally and climatically significant food consumption - A focus group study in the Finnish context

    OpenAIRE

    Roininen, Taneli Joonatan

    2012-01-01

    Food consumption is one of the areas which have the biggest impact on the environment; a little less than 30 percent of greenhouse gas emissions and around 50 percent of eutrophication of all household consumption accounts for food in Finland. The importance of the sustainable decision-making of the consumers is especially highlighted in the food sector, where in contrast to other sectors, significant greenhouse gas emission reductions cannot be achieved just by applying low-carbon-technology...

  20. Limitation of the CO2 emissions to fight the climatic change. Challenges, prevention at the source and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the framework of a climatic change the CO2 capture and sequestration is considered as an possible way of greenhouse effect gases impact decrease. Meanwhile many other actions in the energy production and consumption must also be implemented. The aim of this study is to offer a global aspect of the problem and a synthesis of bibliographic elements. The first part presents the context of the climatic change, the economical and political aspects. The second deals more specially with the actions possibilities, the energy recovery, the carbon sequestration. (A.L.B.)

  1. Food Assistance: Research Provides Limited Information on the Effectiveness of Specific WIC Nutrition Services. Report to Congressional Committees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Robert E.

    The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) is a federally funded program providing supplemental food and nutrition services to lower-income pregnant, breastfeeding, and postpartum women and also serves infants and children up to age 5 who are at nutritional risk. Included in these services are nutrition…

  2. Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: Producing Potatoes ( Solanum tuberosum L.) and Bush Beans ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) for Improved Food Security and Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First Nations Community

    OpenAIRE

    Christine D. Barbeau; Maren Oelbermann; Karagatzides, Jim D.; Leonard J.S. Tsuji

    2015-01-01

    Aboriginal people in Canada experience disproportionately high rates of diet-related illnesses, such as obesity and diabetes. Food insecurity has been identified as a contributing factor to these illnesses along with a loss of traditional lifestyle. Current food systems within northern subarctic and arctic regions of Canada rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available), and are environmentally unsustainable. A warming subarctic and arctic climate present challenges, but a...

  3. Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: Producing Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) and Bush Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) for Improved Food Security and Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First Nations Community

    OpenAIRE

    Christine D. Barbeau; Maren Oelbermann; Karagatzides, Jim D.; Leonard J.S. Tsuji

    2015-01-01

    Aboriginal people in Canada experience disproportionately high rates of diet-related illnesses, such as obesity and diabetes. Food insecurity has been identified as a contributing factor to these illnesses along with a loss of traditional lifestyle. Current food systems within northern subarctic and arctic regions of Canada rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available), and are environmentally unsustainable. A warming subarctic and arctic climate present challenges, but ...

  4. Model investigations of the potential effect of climate changes on the world food supply; Modellhafte Ueberlegungen zu potentiellen Auswirkungen der sich veraendernden Klimabedingungen auf die Weltversorgungslage mit Nahrungsmitteln

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, H. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Agrarpolitik, Marktforschung und Wirtschaftssoziologie

    1993-05-21

    This investigation aims to contribute towards assessing the implications of possible climate changes on the world food situation. First of all, the causes and implications of climate change are analyzed and printed out. Then, suitable models for describing climate change are investigated and described. Furthermore, suitable mathematical yield models for calculating the impact of climate changes on plant growth are analyzed and described. Finally, the national economy`s gain and loss in the farming sector is established within the framework of a welfare analysis. (orig./KW) [Deutsch] Zielsetzung dieser Untersuchung ist es, einen Beitrag zur Abschaetzung der Auswirkungen moeglicher Klimaveraenderungen auf die Weltversorgungslage mit Nahrungsmitteln zu leisten. Hierzu werden zunaechst die Ursachen und Auswirkungen der Klimaveraenderung analysiert und aufgezeigt werden. Des weiteren werden geeignete Modelle zur Beschreibung der Klimaveraenderung untersucht und vorgestellt werden. Ausserdem werden die zur Berechnung klimatischer Veraenderungen in ihrer Wirkung auf das Pflanzenwachstum geeigneten mathematischen Ertragsmodelle analysiert und beschrieben. Abschliessend wird im Rahmen einer Wohlfahrtsanalyse der volkswirtschaftliche Gewinn und Verlust fuer den landwirtschaftlichen Sektor aufgezeigt. (orig./KW)

  5. Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: Climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Hall, Courtney T.; Brumfield, Marisa D; Dugas, Jason; Jones, William R.

    2016-01-01

    Within the context of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the ecological implications of changes in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Along subtropical coasts, less frequent and warmer freeze events are expected to permit freeze-sensitive mangrove forests to expand poleward and displace freeze-tolerant salt marshes. Here, our aim was to better understand the drivers of poleward mangrove migration by quantifying spatiotemporal patterns in mangrove range expansion and contraction across land-ocean temperature gradients. Our work was conducted in a freeze-sensitive mangrove-marsh transition zone that spans a land-ocean temperature gradient in one of the world's most wetland-rich regions (Mississippi River Deltaic Plain; Louisiana, USA). We used historical air temperature data (1893-2014), alternative future climate scenarios, and coastal wetland coverage data (1978-2011) to investigate spatiotemporal fluctuations and climate-wetland linkages. Our analyses indicate that changes in mangrove coverage have been controlled primarily by extreme freeze events (i.e., air temperatures below a threshold zone of -6.3 to -7.6 °C). We expect that in the past 121 years, mangrove range expansion and contraction has occurred across land-ocean temperature gradients. Mangrove resistance, resilience, and dominance were all highest in areas closer to the ocean where temperature extremes were buffered by large expanses of water and saturated soil. Under climate change, these areas will likely serve as local hotspots for mangrove dispersal, growth, range expansion, and displacement of salt marsh. Collectively, our results show that the frequency and intensity of freeze events across land-ocean temperature gradients greatly influences spatiotemporal patterns of range expansion and contraction of freeze-sensitive mangroves. We expect that, along subtropical coasts, similar processes govern the distribution and abundance of other freeze

  6. [Escherichia coli, other Enterobacteriaceae and additional indicators as markers of microbiologic quality of food: advantages and limitations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossel, D A; Struijk, C B

    1995-03-01

    The 93/43 European Union directive assigns to the food and catering industries the main responsibility for an integrated safety and quality assurance strategy in the food chain. Relying on hazard analysis, followed by design and adoption of control of all critical points and practices ("HACCP"). Hiatus-free compliance with such HACCP-based Codes of Good Practices is to be assessed by monitoring, recording results on process performance charts and gauging such data against experimentally established, attainable and maintainable references ranges ("standards"). Marker microorganisms are a major analytical tool for validating compliance in the sense of the EU directive. They should be expertly chosen amongst microbes usually present in food so that their, whose presence in quantities exceeding predetermined levels point to a lack of microbiological integrity of a food product. This may encompass (i) the potential presence of taxonomically, physiologically and ecologically related pathogens, markers are called index organisms; or else (ii) a lack of process integrity; in this case, markers are termed indicator organisms. The classical index organism was E. coli, introduced in the 1980's to monitor drinking water supplies. It is still used as an appropriate marker to assess the bacteriological safety of raw foods. In the 1920's the coli-aerogenes ("coliform") group was adopted as an indicator to validate the adequate processing, i.e. pasteurization of dairy products. Since the 1950's the entire Enterobacteriaceae taxon is preferred for the latter purpose because it is better defined in determinative sense and includes more organisms of significance. In some food and water supplies, processed for safety, more vigorous or more resistant organisms than the Gram-negative rods are reliable supplementary markers. These include Enterococcus spp., spores of the Clostridium genus, and bacteriophages of E. coli and Bacteroides fragilis mimicking the fate of enteric viruses under

  7. Local adaptation to temperature conserves top-down control in a grassland food web

    OpenAIRE

    Barton, Brandon T.

    2011-01-01

    A fundamental limitation in many climate change experiments is that tests represent relatively short-term ‘shock’ experiments and so do not incorporate the phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary change that may occur during the gradual process of climate change. However, capturing this aspect of climate change effects in an experimental design is a difficult challenge that few studies have accomplished. I examined the effect of temperature and predator climate history in food webs composed of ...

  8. Sea lamprey carcasses exert local and variable food web effects in a nutrient-limited Atlantic coastal stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Daniel M.; Coghlan Jr., Stephen M.; Zydlewski, Joseph

    2016-01-01

    Resource flows from adjacent ecosystems are critical in maintaining structure and function of freshwater food webs. Migrating sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) deliver a pulsed marine-derived nutrient subsidy to rivers in spring when the metabolic demand of producers and consumers are increasing. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of these nutrient subsidies are not well characterized. We used sea lamprey carcass additions in a small stream to examine changes in nutrients, primary productivity, and nutrient assimilation among consumers. Algal biomass increased 57%–71% immediately adjacent to carcasses; however, broader spatial changes from multiple-site carcass addition may have been influenced by canopy cover. We detected assimilation of nutrients (via δ13C and δ15N) among several macroinvertebrate families including Heptageniidae, Hydropsychidae, and Perlidae. Our research suggests that subsidies may evoke localized patch-scale effects on food webs, and the pathways of assimilation in streams are likely coupled to adjacent terrestrial systems. This research underscores the importance of connectivity in streams, which may influence sea lamprey spawning and elicit varying food web responses from carcass subsidies due to fine-scale habitat variables.

  9. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  10. The Impact Of Climate Change On Production Of Multiple Food Crops In The 21st Century- An Analysis Based On Two Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Jain, A. K.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change presents potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of climate change effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected climate change trends and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to climate change and adaptive management practices and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate crop adaptation to climate change. We apply the process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of climate change on the production of row crops (corn, soybean, rice, cotton, sugarcane and wheat) at global and regional scales. The results are compared to the corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of crop adaptation and adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do model differences in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices over the 21st century. ISAM and CLM4.5 have been included in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Both models consider the effects of temperature, light and soil water and nitrogen availability on crop photosynthesis and temperature control on crop phenology and carbon allocation. ISAM also considers the adaptation of crop phenology, carbon allocation and structures growth to drought, light stress and N stress. The effects of model differences on projected crop production are evaluated by performing the following experiments. Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005) and projected atmospheric forcing data (2006-2100) under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different

  11. Can we still comply with the maximum limit of 2°C? Approaches to a New Climate Contract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Radermacher

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The international climate policy is in trouble. CO2 emissions are rising instead of shrinking. The 2025 climate summit in Paris should lead to a global agreement, but what should be its design? In an earlier paper in Cadmus on the issue, the author outlined a contract formula based on the so-called ‘Copenhagen Accord’ that is based on a dynamic cap and an intelligent burden sharing between politics and the private sector. The private sector was brought into the deal via the idea of a voluntary climate neutrality of private emissions culminating in a ‘Global Neutral’ promoted by the United Nations. All this was based on a global cap-and-trade system. For a number of reasons, it may be that a global cap-and-trade system cannot or will not be established. States may use other instruments to fulfil their promises. The present paper elaborates that even under such conditions, the basic proposal can still be implemented. This may prove useful for the Paris negotiations.

  12. Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Jones, R.G.; Hassell, D.C. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Devon (United Kingdom); Wild, M.; Vidale, P.L. [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich (Switzerland); Giorgi, F.; Kucharski, F. [Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Christensen, J.H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark); Rockel, B. [Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Geesthacht (Germany); Jacob, D. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Kjellstroem, E. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Castro, M. de. [Universidad de Castilla La Mancha, Dept. de Ciencias Ambientales, Toledo (Spain); Hurk, B. van den [KNMI, Postbus 201, AE De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2005-11-01

    Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071-2100 and the 1961-1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs - in particular in terms of precipitation - is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs. (orig.)

  13. A Focus on the Death Kinetics in Predictive Microbiology: Benefits and Limits of the Most Important Models and Some Tools Dealing with Their Application in Foods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bevilacqua

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Predictive Microbiology (PM deals with the mathematical modeling of microorganisms in foods for different applications (challenge test, evaluation of microbiological shelf life, prediction of the microbiological hazards connected with foods, etc.. An interesting and important part of PM focuses on the use of primary functions to fit data of death kinetics of spoilage, pathogenic, and useful microorganisms following thermal or non-conventional treatments and can also be used to model survivors throughout storage. The main topic of this review is a focus on the most important death models (negative Gompertz, log-linear, shoulder/tail, Weibull, Weibull+tail, re-parameterized Weibull, biphasic approach, etc. to pinpoint the benefits and the limits of each model; in addition, the last section addresses the most important tools for the use of death kinetics and predictive microbiology in a user-friendly way.

  14. The use of whole food animal studies in the safety assessment of genetically modified crops: limitations and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholomaeus, Andrew; Parrott, Wayne; Bondy, Genevieve; Walker, Kate

    2013-11-01

    There is disagreement internationally across major regulatory jurisdictions on the relevance and utility of whole food (WF) toxicity studies on GM crops, with no harmonization of data or regulatory requirements. The scientific value, and therefore animal ethics, of WF studies on GM crops is a matter addressable from the wealth of data available on commercialized GM crops and WF studies on irradiated foods. We reviewed available GM crop WF studies and considered the extent to which they add to the information from agronomic and compositional analyses. No WF toxicity study was identified that convincingly demonstrated toxicological concern or that called into question the adequacy, sufficiency, and reliability of safety assessments based on crop molecular characterization, transgene source, agronomic characteristics, and/or compositional analysis of the GM crop and its near-isogenic line. Predictions of safety based on crop genetics and compositional analyses have provided complete concordance with the results of well-conducted animal testing. However, this concordance is primarily due to the improbability of de novo generation of toxic substances in crop plants using genetic engineering practices and due to the weakness of WF toxicity studies in general. Thus, based on the comparative robustness and reliability of compositional and agronomic considerations and on the absence of any scientific basis for a significant potential for de novo generation of toxicologically significant compositional alterations as a sole result of transgene insertion, the conclusion of this review is that WF animal toxicity studies are unnecessary and scientifically unjustifiable.

  15. The use of whole food animal studies in the safety assessment of genetically modified crops: limitations and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholomaeus, Andrew; Parrott, Wayne; Bondy, Genevieve; Walker, Kate

    2013-11-01

    There is disagreement internationally across major regulatory jurisdictions on the relevance and utility of whole food (WF) toxicity studies on GM crops, with no harmonization of data or regulatory requirements. The scientific value, and therefore animal ethics, of WF studies on GM crops is a matter addressable from the wealth of data available on commercialized GM crops and WF studies on irradiated foods. We reviewed available GM crop WF studies and considered the extent to which they add to the information from agronomic and compositional analyses. No WF toxicity study was identified that convincingly demonstrated toxicological concern or that called into question the adequacy, sufficiency, and reliability of safety assessments based on crop molecular characterization, transgene source, agronomic characteristics, and/or compositional analysis of the GM crop and its near-isogenic line. Predictions of safety based on crop genetics and compositional analyses have provided complete concordance with the results of well-conducted animal testing. However, this concordance is primarily due to the improbability of de novo generation of toxic substances in crop plants using genetic engineering practices and due to the weakness of WF toxicity studies in general. Thus, based on the comparative robustness and reliability of compositional and agronomic considerations and on the absence of any scientific basis for a significant potential for de novo generation of toxicologically significant compositional alterations as a sole result of transgene insertion, the conclusion of this review is that WF animal toxicity studies are unnecessary and scientifically unjustifiable. PMID:24164514

  16. Applying the concept of the ecological niche and a macroecological approach to understand how climate influences zooplankton: Advantages, assumptions, limitations and requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaugrand, Gregory; Mackas, Dave; Goberville, Eric

    2013-04-01

    Ecosystem effects of climate change have been detected in all components of the Earth System. In the marine biosphere, climate-change responses have caused large and well-documented biogeographical and phenological shifts, which have in turn altered local dominance hierarchies, and also the structure, diversity and functional linkages within regional marine ecosystems. There is an urgent need to improve both our knowledge of the global-scale effects of climate change on marine biodiversity and our capacity to project future impacts. But extrapolation of previously estimated changes to additional places and to future conditions is complicated by non-linear responses to environmental variables, and also by complexities of multivariate interaction that can lead to tipping-points. In this paper, we show how observations from widely-spaced locations can be combined to characterise the ecological niche of a species, and how the concept of the niche can be used to understand and project how climate-induced changes in temperatures will alter marine zooplankton both locally and globally. As an example to illustrate our view, we apply this framework to the relatively well-known copepod Calanus finmarchicus. Our results suggest that climate change will strongly affect the local abundance of this species in the North Atlantic Ocean by the end of this century. Predicted changes are large (e.g. increase by ±6-10-fold of the temporal changes in the abundance of C. finmarchicus) and vary as a function of the magnitude of warming and the local sign and steepness of the thermal niche. Substantial rates of change hold even under optimistic climatic scenarii. After reviewing the main limitations of the niche concept in bioclimatological research, we argue that the application of this concept in ecology and bioclimatology might nevertheless represent the best tool currently available to scientists to discern and anticipate the effect of global climate change on species and ecosystems

  17. Parameterizing sub-surface drainage with geology to improve modeling streamflow responses to climate in data limited environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Tague

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic models are one of the core tools used to project how water resources may change under a warming climate. These models are typically applied over a range of scales, from headwater streams to higher order rivers, and for a variety of purposes, such as evaluating changes to aquatic habitat or reservoir operation. Most hydrologic models require streamflow data to calibrate subsurface drainage parameters. In many cases, long-term gage records may not be available for calibration, particularly when assessments are focused on low order stream reaches. Consequently, hydrologic modeling of climate change impacts is often performed in the absence of sufficient data to fully parameterize these hydrologic models. In this paper, we assess a geologic-based strategy for assigning drainage parameters. We examine the performance of this modeling strategy for the McKenzie River watershed in the US Oregon Cascades, a region where previous work has demonstrated sharp contrasts in hydrology based primarily on geological differences between the High and Western Cascades. Based on calibration and verification using existing streamflow data, we demonstrate that: (1 a set of streams ranging from 1st to 3rd order within the Western Cascade geologic region can share the same drainage parameter set, and (2 streams from the High Cascade geologic region, however, require a distinctive parameter set. Further, we show that a watershed comprised of a mixture of High and Western Cascade geology can be modeled without additional calibration by transferring parameters from these distinctive High and Western Cascade end-member parameter sets. Using this geologically-based parameter transfer scheme, our model predictions for all watersheds capture dominant historic streamflow patterns, and are sufficiently accurate to resolve geo-climatic differences in how these different watersheds are likely to respond to simple warming scenarios.

  18. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-F. Schleussner

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Currently, two such levels are discussed in the context of the international climate negotiations as long-term global temperature goals: a below 2 °C and a 1.5 °C limit in global-mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive assessment of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and several hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 % longer to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in

  19. The role of climate and food availability on driving decadal abundance patterns of highly migratory pelagic predators in the Bay of Biscay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maite eLouzao

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Within the current context of changing ecosystems, many organisms are experiencing phenological changes in the timing of migration. Here, we assessed whether the abundance patterns of two trans-equatorial migrating pelagic seabirds, the great shearwater and the sooty shearwater (Puffinus gravis and P. griseus, respectively, have changed over recent decades in the Bay of Biscay in relation to the main drivers shaping their migratory journey: climatic factors and food availability. Specifically, we studied the staging dynamic by estimating dates of arrival and departure, staging duration and abundance during a 16-year temporal window (1995-2010 based on monthly at-sea observations performed onboard a commercial ferry. Climatic effects were studied at two temporal scales: oceanic winds and global oscillations indices (North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO that represent climate variability at short and long time scales, respectively. Based on oceanic winds, we also estimated a hypothetical cost of flying on a monthly basis considering wind speed and the angle between flight and wind direction. Our results showed that both great and sooty shearwaters were influenced by the large scale NAO index but the shape of the relationship was different, while the sooty shearwater was also influenced by food availability. Thus, each species might rely on different cues before and during their migration to adjust to optimal flying conditions and foraging grounds. Both species shape their arrival in the Bay of Biscay with periods of potential minimum flying costs, following their migration from the western to the eastern North Atlantic. We foresee that the quantification of flying costs can integrate different processes at the level of migration and provide a wider understanding of the migratory dynamic of pelagic predators within current changing ecosystems.

  20. Water Scarcity within the Context of Climate Change and Land Use Change and Linkages to Food Production in Semiarid Regions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Longuevergne, L.; Favreau, G.; Zheng, C.; Cao, G.; Shen, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Water scarcity is a critical issue with 1.1 billion people lacking access to safe drinking water. Water scarcity is strongly linked to food production as irrigated agriculture consumed 90% of global fresh water resources during the past century. This presentation will focus on groundwater availability in semiarid regions considering climate change and land use change using data from the US High Plains, California Central Valley, SE Australia, North China Plain, and West Africa using satellite and ground-based data. Land use change from natural ecosystems to rainfed agroecosystems has increased groundwater resources in many semiarid regions by changing partitioning of water at the land surface because of shallower rooting depths and fallowing without vegetation. However, increased recharge has degraded groundwater quality by mobilizing salts into underlying aquifers, particularly in SE Australia and SW US. Pleistocene-Holocene climate change has decreased water availability in these regions because of reduced recharge related to decreased precipitation and increased temperature. Irrigated agriculture has had large scale impacts on water resources by depleting groundwater, as documented in the US High Plains and Central Valley and North China Plain. In addition to depleting groundwater quantity, irrigation greatly degrades water quality by loading chemicals into the system through irrigation water and fertilizer applications. Projected changes in the intensity of the hydrologic cycle, with longer term droughts interspersed with more intense floods, will exacerbate water scarcity issues in these regions in the future and increase emphasis in irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

  1. The Climate change impact on the water balance and use efficiency of two contrasting water limited Mediterranean ecosystems in Sardinia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaldo, Nicola; Corona, Roberto; Albertson, John

    2016-04-01

    Mediterranean ecosystems are commonly heterogeneous savanna-like ecosystems, with contrasting plant functional types (PFT) competing for the water use. Often deforestation activities have been more intensive along the plan and alluvial river valleys, where deep soils are well suited for agricultural and grass became the primary PFT, while more natural woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) survived in the steep hillslopes and mountain areas, where soil thickness is low, i.e. less attractive for agricultural. Hence, Mediterranean regions are characterized by two main ecosystems, grassland and woodland, which for both natural and anthropogenic causes can grow in soils with also different characteristics (texture, hydraulic properties, depth), highly impacting water resources. Mediterranean regions suffer water scarcity produced in part by natural (e.g., climate variations) influences. For instance, in the Flumendosa basin water reservoir system, which plays a primary role in the water supply for much of southern Sardinia, the average annual input from stream discharge in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate. The precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed, precipitation decreased in winter months, which are crucial for reservoirs recharge through runoff. At the same time air temperature increased during the spring-summer season, when the precipitation slightly increased. The IPCC models predicts a further increase of drought in the Mediterranean region during winter, increasing the uncertainty on the future of the water resources system of these regions. Hence, there is the need to investigate the role of the PFT vegetation dynamics on the soil water budget of these ecosystems in the context of the climate change, and predict hydrologic variables for climate change scenarios

  2. Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sanchez, Gerardo; Penuelas, Josep

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced re

  3. Simulation of forest tree species' bud burst dates for different climate scenarios: chilling requirements and photo-period may limit bud burst advancement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Maximilian; Schaber, Jörg; Marx, Andreas; Jäckel, Greta; Badeck, Franz-Werner; Seppelt, Ralf; Doktor, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates whether the assumed increase of winter and spring temperatures is depicted by phenological models in correspondingly earlier bud burst (BB) dates. Some studies assume that rising temperatures lead to an earlier BB, but even later BB has been detected. The phenological model PIM (promoter-inhibitor-model) fitted to the extensive phenological database of the German Weather Service was driven by several climate scenarios. This model accounts for the complicated mechanistic interactions between chilling requirements, temperature and photo-period. It predicts BB with a r 2 between 0.41 and 0.62 and a RMSE of around 1 week, depending on species. Parameter sensitivities depict species dependent interactions between growth and chilling requirements as well as photo-period. A mean trend to earlier BB was revealed for the period 2002- 2100, varying between -0.05 and -0.11 days per year, depending on species. These trends are lower than for the period 1951- 2009. Within climate scenario period, trends are decreasing for beech and chestnut, stagnating for birch and increasing for oak. Results suggest that not fulfilled chilling requirements accompanied by an increasing dependency on photo-period potentially limit future BB advancement. The combination of a powerful phenological model, a large scale phenological database and several climate scenarios, offers new insights into the mechanistic comprehension of spring phenology.

  4. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for

  5. Tectonic drift versus climatic variations: rhodoliths as indicators of limits between tropical and nontropical sedimentary conditions: examples from Pacific Miocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourrouilh-le Jan, F.G.

    1986-05-01

    Modern examples show that rhodoliths or red algal nodules are forming around the 18/sup 0/C winter isocline and that huge amounts of these red coralline algae are living and accumulating in the subtidal zones, from -60 m to sea level, of temperate seas, such as the English Channel and Rockall. In the Pacific Ocean, several high carbonate platforms, so-called uplifted atolls, show uniform, extended, and thick accumulation of rhodoliths. These accumulations have been recognized in the Solomon Islands (Rennell) and in the Loyalty Islands (Mare and Lifu, New Caledonia), but also in the Vanuatu (Vila), in the Austral Archipelago (Rurutu), where their age can be proved or estimated as middle Miocene. They are also mentioned in the literature on the Emperor Rise (northwest Pacific). On other high carbonate islands, such as Makatea (Tuamotu), red algae and rhodolith formations appear at the top of a sedimentary pile of lower Miocene coral accumulation. The same observations and perhaps the same age can be said for Nauru (central Pacific). Such a wide distribution, from the east to the west part of the Pacific Ocean and between the tropics, seems to be due to climate variations during the Miocene, more than tectonic drift due to oceanic spreading. Temperate conditions shown by this shallow platform sedimentation, just under the coral growth conditions, seem to be confirmed by isotopic studies on pelagic and benthic Foraminifera and could confirm the existence of climate variations affecting the surface water of the Pacific in an extensive area that does not consider the presence of trenches, arcs, and ridges.

  6. Water limitations on forest carbon cycling and conifer traits along a steep climatic gradient in the Cascade Mountains, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

    2015-11-01

    Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades, and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the transition from low-elevation, dry western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) woodlands to higher-elevation, wetter ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. We examined 12 sites in mature forests that spanned a 1300 mm yr-1 gradient in mean growing-year climate moisture index (CMIgy ), computed annually (1964 to 2013) as monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration and summed October to September. Maximum leaf area, annual aboveground productivity, and aboveground live tree biomass increased with CMIgy (r2 = 0.67-0.88, P gy (r2 = 0.53, P gy and extensive insect outbreak. Traits of stress-tolerant juniper included short stature, high wood density for cavitation resistance, and high investment in water transport relative to leaf area. Species occupying wetter areas invested more resources in height growth in response to competition for light relative to investment in hydraulic architecture. Consequently, maximum tree height, leaf area : sapwood area ratio, and stem wood density were all correlated with CMIgy . The tight coupling of forest carbon cycling and species traits with water availability suggests that warmer and drier conditions projected for the 21st century could have significant biogeochemical, ecological, and social consequences in the Pacific Northwest.

  7. Food Security: Climate Change and Industrial Transfer%粮食安全:气候变化与粮食产地转移

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周力; 周应恒

    2011-01-01

    Based on the provincial panel data from 1985 to 2008, this paper demonstrates the action mechanism of climate change on grain cultivation scale and per unit yields, and analyzes the impact of industrial transfer on food security. The conclusion shows: (1) rice, wheat and corn industries are respectively transferring to areas in that lack resources like Heilongjiang, Henan and Inner Mongolia, etc. ; (2) the dominant factor of transfer lies in the cost-benefit comparison between grain crops and cash crops, crop farming and livestock breeding, agriculture and non-agriculture, while the climate change factor is only in a subsidiary status; (3) based on the mechanism of scale effect, income effect and rebound effect, the three northeastern provinces, Henan and Inner Mongolia have better growth potential than the other regions; (4) the productive and political cost for adapting to climate change in backward regions is usually less than the opportunity cost for maintaining food production in developed regions. Food production transferring from the developed regions to the less developed regions should be sustainable. And there is no conflict between individual rationality and collective rationality in the process of food origin transferring. China should increase investment in weather forecasting, water conservancy facilities, anti-disaster capability, farmland reconstruction and others, abandon the traditional concept of regional balance, optimize resource allocation across the country, and use the national food reserve strategy to counter the risk of mass disaster.%基于1985-2008年中国雀际面板数据,实证检验了气候变化对粮食种植规模与单位产量的作用机制,进而分析了产地转移对国家粮食总供给的影响.结论表明:①中国的稻谷、小麦、玉米产业正分别向黑龙江、河南、内蒙古等气候资源匮乏地区转移或集聚;②粮食产地转移的主导因素在于粮食作物与经济作物、种植业与畜

  8. Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziska, Lewis H.; Bunce, James A.; Shimono, Hiroyuki; Gealy, David R.; Baker, Jeffrey T.; Newton, Paul C. D.; Reynolds, Matthew P.; Jagadish, Krishna S. V.; Zhu, Chunwu; Howden, Mark; Wilson, Lloyd T.

    2012-01-01

    Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO2 to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO2 and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO2 responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change. PMID:22874755

  9. Influence of climate on tree rings and vessel features in red oak and white oak growing near their northern distribution limit, southwestern Quebec, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tardif, J.C.; Conciatori, F. [Winnipeg Univ., MB (Canada). Centre for Forest Interdisciplinary Research

    2006-09-15

    A study assessing the association between tree-ring descriptors, vessel series and climate change in white oak and red oak species was presented. Ten trees of each oak species were analyzed at a site in southern Quebec. For each species, 11 chronologies using vessel and ring width were developed and then compared. The potential for using vessel features in climate reconstructions was evaluated by comparing 4 regression models resulting from different combinations of variables: (1) ring width with 1 variable per species; (2) earlywood, latewood and ring width; (3) vessel variables; and (4) all chronologies. Results indicated that there was little difference between the 2 species. All vessel chronologies were associated with ring dimension, and did not reveal a unique climate signature. Growing season conditions were associated with latewood features, whereas those of the previous year were associated with earlywood features. All 4 models developed to reconstruct the July Canadian Drought Code (CDC) showed good predictive ability. Models using vessel variables did not improve estimations. Good reconstruction models were derived from earlywood, latewood, and ring-width chronologies. The results suggested that vessel chronologies have limited applications in dendroclimatology, and that vessel features are best used to identify event years recorded during the life of the trees. Vessel features in ring-porous species may also be used to decipher discontinuous signals related to tree growth in order to understand tree physiology. It was concluded that the vessel features provided no new information beyond that obtained from the much easier and cheaper measurement of ring width in paleoclimatic records. 56 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

  10. Estimated general population control limits for unitary agents in drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items. For use in reentry decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, A.P.; Adams, J.D.; Cerar, R.J.; Hess, T.L.; Kistner, S.L.; Leffingwell, S.S.; MacIntosh, R.G.; Ward, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    In the event of an unplanned release of chemical agent during any stage of the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (CSDP), the potential exists for contamination of drinking water, forage crops, grains, garden produce, and livestock. Persistent agents such as VX or sulfur mustard pose the greatest human health concern for reentry. This White Paper has been prepared to provide technical bases for these decisions by developing working estimates of agent control limits in selected environmental media considered principal sources of potential human exposure. To date, control limits for public exposure to unitary agents have been established for atmospheric concentrations only. The current analysis builds on previous work to calculate working estimates of control limits for ingestion and dermal exposure to potentially contaminated drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items such as garden produce. Information characterizing agent desorption from, and detection on or in, contaminated porous media are presently too developed to permit reasonable estimation of dermal exposure from this source. Thus, dermal contact with potentially contaminated porous surfaces is not considered in this document.

  11. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  12. One Health, One World—The Intersecting Legal Regimes of Trade, Climate Change, Food Security, Humanitarian Crises, and Migration

    OpenAIRE

    Kelli K. Garcia; Gostin, Lawrence O.

    2012-01-01

    Today’s global health challenges require a multi-sectoral approach in which health is a fundamental value within global governance and international law. “One Health, One World†provides a unified, harmonious vision of global health governance that supports the wellbeing of humans and animals living in a clean and temperate environment. This article focuses on five legal regimes—trade law, food security law, environmental law, humanitarian law, and refugee law—that play a pivotal rol...

  13. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  14. Application of the Central Limit Theorem in microbial risk assessment: high number of servings reduces the Coefficient of Variation of food-borne burden-of-illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, Fernando; Zwietering, Marcel H

    2012-02-15

    The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is proposed as a means of understanding microbial risk in foods from a Public Health perspective. One variant of the CLT states that as the number of random variables, each with a finite mean and variance, increases (→∞), the distribution of the sum (or mean) of those variables approximates a normal distribution. On the basis of the CLT, the hypothesis introduced by this paper states that the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of the annual number of food-borne illness cases decreases as a result of a larger number of exposures (or servings) (n). Second-order Monte-Carlo analysis and classical statistics were used to support the hypothesis, based on existing risk models on Listeria monocytogenes in deli meat products focused on elderly people in the United States. Likewise, the hypothesis was tested on epidemiological data of annual incidence of salmonellosis and listeriosis in different countries (i.e. different n). Although different sources of error affected the accuracy of the results, both the Monte-Carlo analysis (in silico) and epidemiological data (in vivo), especially for salmonellosis, demonstrated that the CV of the annual number of cases decreased as n increased as stated by the CLT. Furthermore, results from this work showed that classical statistical methods can be helpful to provide reliable risk estimates based on simple and well-established statistical principles.

  15. Smallholder Irrigation and Crop Diversification under Climate Change in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence and Potential for Simultaneous Food Security, Adaptation, and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R.; Burney, J. A.; Postel, S.

    2011-12-01

    The poorest populations in sub-Saharan Africa live in rural areas and depend on smallholder agricultural production for their livelihoods. Over 90% of all farmed area in Sub-Saharan Africa is rainfed, with crop production centering on 3-5 months of rainfall. Rapid population growth is reducing land per capita ratios, and low yields for staple crops make food security an increasingly challenging goal. Malnutrition, most noticeable among children, peaks during the dry season. Recent data on aggregate economic growth and investment in Africa hide these patterns of seasonal hunger and income disparity. Perhaps most perversely, smallholder farmers in the dry tropical regions of sub-Saharan Africa are (and will continue to be) some of the earliest and hardest hit by climate change. Our research focuses on the role distributed, small-scale irrigation can play in food security and climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa. As Asia's agricultural success has demonstrated, irrigation, when combined with the availability of inputs (fertilizer) and improved crop varieties, can enable year-round production, growth in rural incomes, and a dramatic reduction in hunger. The situation in Africa is markedly different: agroecological conditions are far more heterogeneous than in Asia and evaporation rates are relatively high; most smallholders lack access to fertilizers; and market integration is constrained by infrastructure, information, and private sector incentives. Yet from a resource perspective, national- and regional-level estimates suggest that Internal Renewable Water Resources (IRWR) are nowhere near fully exploited in Sub-Saharan Africa -- even in the Sudano-Sahel, which is considered to be one of the driest regions of the continent. Irrigation can thus be implemented on a much larger scale sustainably. We will present (a) results from controlled, experimental field studies of solar-powered drip irrigation systems in the rural Sudano-Sahel region of West Africa. We

  16. What Food is to be Kept Safe and for Whom? Food-Safety Governance in an Unsafe Food System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha McMahon

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that discussion of new food-safety governance should be framed by the realization that the dominant food system within which food-safety governance is designed to makes food safe is itself a structural and systemic sources of food un-safety, poor health and a future of food insecurity for many. For some, an appropriate policy response lies in addressing the connections between the food system and diseases such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes. For others it means subsuming food-safety governance within food security governance. For yet others, safe food implies food sovereignty governance and the primacy of a climate change resilient food system. Conventional approaches to food-safety governance are typically framed within a liability model of responsibility that has limited usefulness for addressing institutional, structural or systemic sources of harm such as those critics increasingly attribute to the dominant food system and which are not amenable to remedy by food-safety governance as it is widely understood. One cannot identify critical hazard points where risk is to be managed. These are food-system safety challenges. Because food-safety governance is so deeply political there needs to be greater attention to issues of governance rather than the more usual focus on the technologies of food-safety. Feminist political theorists have much to contribute to re-thinking food-safety governance in the context of diversity and the complexities of power. One could usefully start with the simple questions, “what food is to be kept-safe, for whom and who is the subject of food-safety governance in a post-Westphalian political economic order?” These questions can help unpack both the narrow parochialism and the misleading universalism of food-safety talk. This paper answers that neither the citizens of a particular state (or network of states nor the falsely universalizing identity of ‘the consumer’ are adequate answers

  17. Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2015-12-01

    It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is

  18. On the Water-Food Nexus: an Optimization Approach for Water and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortada, Sarah; Abou Najm, Majdi; Yassine, Ali; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem

    2016-04-01

    Water and food security is facing increased challenges with population increase, climate and land use change, as well as resource depletion coupled with pollution and unsustainable practices. Coordinated and effective management of limited natural resources have become an imperative to meet these challenges by optimizing the usage of resources under various constraints. In this study, an optimization model is developed for optimal resource allocation towards sustainable water and food security under nutritional, socio-economic, agricultural, environmental, and natural resources constraints. The core objective of this model is to maximize the composite water-food security status by recommending an optimal water and agricultural strategy. The model balances between the healthy nutritional demand side and the constrained supply side while considering the supply chain in between. It equally ensures that the population achieves recommended nutritional guidelines and population food-preferences by quantifying an optimum agricultural and water policy through transforming optimum food demands into optimum cropping policy given the water and land footprints of each crop or agricultural product. Through this process, water and food security are optimized considering factors that include crop-food transformation (food processing), water footprints, crop yields, climate, blue and green water resources, irrigation efficiency, arable land resources, soil texture, and economic policies. The model performance regarding agricultural practices and sustainable food and water security was successfully tested and verified both at a hypothetical and pilot scale levels.

  19. Climate change (warm) effected on food production in Heilongjiang province and its countermeasure%气候变化(暖)对黑龙江粮食生产的影响及适应对策

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘华盛; 林谦; 李彩霞; 吴玉影

    2014-01-01

    Based on the information of climate change in Heilongjiang province ,climate change (w arm ) impacts has been much concerned as a focus for sustainable development of food production in Heilongjiang province . There had been uncertainty of the potential impacts of climate change (warm ) on food production in the area .The potential overall impacts of climate change (warm) on crop growth build‐up was discussed in this paper taking into account the climatic change characteristics including temperature and precipitation data ,impacts on food production by climate changes in various geographical regions of Heilongjiang province were addressed .The differentiated and mutual interaction of climate change trends varying with crops and regions were also considered . Efficiency of countermeasure on agricultural production in Heilongjiang province w as proposed .%黑龙江省的气候变化(暖)已成为影响黑龙江省粮食生产可持续发展的重要因素。气候变化(暖)对粮食生产有着不确定的潜在影响。考虑到气候变化特征,包括温度和降水资料,在作物生长过程中存在整体的潜在影响,因此讨论了黑龙江省各地气候变化(暖)对作物和粮食产量的影响。同时讨论了多元的气候变化趋势同作物和地区之间的相互关系,提出了应对黑龙江省气候变化的对策。

  20. Public policy and regulatory strategies in the global climate change context: opportunities and limitations of programmatic CDM; Politicas publicas e estrategias regulatorias no contexto das mudancas climaticas globais: oportunidades e limitacoes do MDL programatico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romeiro, Viviane; Simoes, Andre Felipe; Januzzi, Gilberto M. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FEM/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos

    2008-07-01

    Carbon Market and its implications to reduce green house effect has been broadly discussed in the context of global climate change. This paper intends to analyze the new regulation of global climate change since Programmatic CDM was created, describing the proceeds to its implementation and discussing limitations and opportunities analyzes of this mechanism as a tool to obtain alternative energy source. It is discussed the challenges and opportunities about CDM programs in the international legal system in which Kyoto Protocol is based, as well as its contribution to attain benefits to global climate system and quality of social life. (author)

  1. Aspergillus steynii and Aspergillus westerdijkiae as potential risk of OTA contamination in food products in warm climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil-Serna, Jessica; Patiño, Belén; Cortes, Laura; Gonzalez-Jaen, Maria Teresa; Vazquez, Covadonga

    2015-04-01

    Aspergillus steynii and Aspergillus westerdijkiae are the main ochratoxin A (OTA) producing species of Aspergillus section Circumdati. Due to its recent description, few data are available about the influence of ecophysiological factors on their growth and OTA production profiles. In this work, the effect of temperature (20, 24 and 28 °C) and water activity (aw) (0.928, 0.964 and 0.995) on growth, sporulation and OTA production by these fungi was examined in CYA and media prepared from paprika, green coffee, anise, grapes, maize and barley. Growth was positively affected by the highest temperature and aw values indicating that both species might be expected in warm climates or storage conditions. However, optimal growth conditions showed differences depending on the medium. OTA production was markedly affected by substrate and showed qualitative and quantitative differences. Both species, especially A. steynii, represent a great potential risk of OTA contamination due to their high production in a variety of conditions and substrates, in particular in barley and paprika-based media. Additionally, neither growth nor sporulation did result good indicators of OTA production by A. steynii or A. westerdijkiae; therefore, specific and highly-sensitive detection methods become essential tools for control strategies to reduce OTA risk by these species. PMID:25475281

  2. Aspergillus steynii and Aspergillus westerdijkiae as potential risk of OTA contamination in food products in warm climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil-Serna, Jessica; Patiño, Belén; Cortes, Laura; Gonzalez-Jaen, Maria Teresa; Vazquez, Covadonga

    2015-04-01

    Aspergillus steynii and Aspergillus westerdijkiae are the main ochratoxin A (OTA) producing species of Aspergillus section Circumdati. Due to its recent description, few data are available about the influence of ecophysiological factors on their growth and OTA production profiles. In this work, the effect of temperature (20, 24 and 28 °C) and water activity (aw) (0.928, 0.964 and 0.995) on growth, sporulation and OTA production by these fungi was examined in CYA and media prepared from paprika, green coffee, anise, grapes, maize and barley. Growth was positively affected by the highest temperature and aw values indicating that both species might be expected in warm climates or storage conditions. However, optimal growth conditions showed differences depending on the medium. OTA production was markedly affected by substrate and showed qualitative and quantitative differences. Both species, especially A. steynii, represent a great potential risk of OTA contamination due to their high production in a variety of conditions and substrates, in particular in barley and paprika-based media. Additionally, neither growth nor sporulation did result good indicators of OTA production by A. steynii or A. westerdijkiae; therefore, specific and highly-sensitive detection methods become essential tools for control strategies to reduce OTA risk by these species.

  3. Invasive alien species in the food chain: Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren Kriticos

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pest risk maps illustrate where invasive alien arthropods, molluscs, pathogens, and weeds might become established, spread, and cause harm to natural and agricultural resources within a pest risk area. Such maps can be powerful tools to assist policymakers in matters of international trade, domestic quarantines, biosecurity surveillance, or pest-incursion responses. The International Pest Risk Mapping Workgroup (IPRMW is a group of ecologists, economists, modellers, and practising risk analysts who are committed to improving the methods used to estimate risks posed by invasive alien species to agricultural and natural resources. The group also strives to improve communication about pest risks to biosecurity, production, and natural-resource-sector stakeholders so that risks can be better managed. The IPRMW previously identified ten activities to improve pest risk assessment procedures, among these were: “improve representations of uncertainty, … expand communications with decision-makers on the interpretation and use of risk maps, … increase international collaboration, … incorporate climate change, … [and] study how human and biological dimensions interact” (Venette et al. 2010.

  4. Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation composition and structure limit future potential carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Paul D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Berryman, Erin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

    2016-04-01

    The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) provides unique opportunities to understand how changing climate, land use, and disturbance affect ecosystem carbon balance. The GYE is one of the largest, most intact ecosystems in the United States. However, distinct management histories on National Park, National Forest, and private lands, elevational climate gradients, and variable fire activity, have created a mosaic of stand ages and forest types. It is uncertain how greenhouse forcing may alter the carbon balance of the GYE. Whereas increasing temperatures may enhance productivity and perpetuate the GYE as a carbon sink, climate-driven increases in fire frequency may offset productivity gains by limiting biomass accumulation. We investigated how changes in fire frequency and size may affect vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration potential in the GYE using the LANDIS-II dynamic landscape vegetation model. LANDIS-II provides sufficient spatial resolution to capture landscape-level variation in forest biomass and forest types (i.e. 90 × 90 m grid cells), but can integrate disturbance regimes and vegetation dynamics across the entire GYE (92,000 km2). We initiated our simulations with biomass and stand conditions that preceded the exceptional 1988 fire, when 16% of the GYE burned. We inferred the biomass, species abundances, and stand demographics of each model cell by combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data, and developed two fire regime scenarios from historical fire records. We developed a historic wildfire scenario with infrequent fires by excluding 1988 from our calibration of fire sizes and frequencies, and a future scenario with more frequent and larger fires by including 1988 in our calibrations. Fire frequency increased in all forest types in our future scenario, with a 152% increase in the annual forest area burned relative to observed area burned during recent decades. However, the changes in fire frequency varied among forest types, with

  5. Decadal Variations in NDVI and Food Production in India

    OpenAIRE

    Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Srivastava, Ashok N.; Prasad S. Thenkabail; Sangram Ganguly; K. Krishna Kumar; Hirofumi Hashimoto; Arindam Samanta; Cristina Milesi; Ranga B. Myneni

    2010-01-01

    In this study we use long-term satellite, climate, and crop observations to document the spatial distribution of the recent stagnation in food grain production affecting the water-limited tropics (WLT), a region where 1.5 billion people live and depend on local agriculture that is constrained by chronic water shortages. Overall, our analysis shows that the recent stagnation in food production is corroborated by satellite data. The growth rate in annually integrated vegetation greenness, a mea...

  6. Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: Producing Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L. and Bush Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L. for Improved Food Security and Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First Nations Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine D. Barbeau

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Aboriginal people in Canada experience disproportionately high rates of diet-related illnesses, such as obesity and diabetes. Food insecurity has been identified as a contributing factor to these illnesses along with a loss of traditional lifestyle. Current food systems within northern subarctic and arctic regions of Canada rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available, and are environmentally unsustainable. A warming subarctic and arctic climate present challenges, but also offers the opportunity for local agricultural production that can increase food security and promote a more sustainable food system. In this study the feasibility of sustainably growing potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L. utilizing agroforestry practices to enhance food security in remote subarctic communities is explored through a case study in Fort Albany First Nation in northern Ontario, Canada. Potato crops were grown over a two-year period and rotated into plots that had been planted with green bush beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.. Results showed that potatoes and bush beans could be grown successfully in the subarctic without the use of greenhouses with yields comparable to more conventional high-input agricultural methods. In subarctic Canada, sustainable local food production can help to promote social capital, healthier lifestyles, and food security.

  7. Growing sensitivity of maize to water scarcity under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Qingfeng Meng; Xinping Chen; Lobell, David B; Zhenling Cui; Yi Zhang; Haishun Yang; Fusuo Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB). We report that moder...

  8. New Feed Sources Key to Ambitious Climate Targets

    OpenAIRE

    Walsh, B.(Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States of America)

    2015-01-01

    Net carbon sinks capable of avoiding dangerous perturbation of the climate system and preventing ocean acidification have been identified, but they are likely to be limited by resource constraints. Land scarcity already creates tension between food security and bioenergy production, and this competition is likely to intensify as populations and the effects of climate change expand. Despite research into microalgae as a next-generation energy source, the land-sparing consequences of alternativ...

  9. New feed sources key to ambitious climate targets

    OpenAIRE

    Walsh, Brian J.; Rydzak, Felicjan; Palazzo, Amanda; Kraxner, Florian; Herrero, Mario; Schenk, Peer M.; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A.; Peñuelas, Josep; Niederl-Schmidinger, Anneliese; Obersteiner, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Net carbon sinks capable of avoiding dangerous perturbation of the climate system and preventing ocean acidification have been identified, but they are likely to be limited by resource constraints (Nature 463:747–756, 2010). Land scarcity already creates tension between food security and bioenergy production, and this competition is likely to intensify as populations and the effects of climate change expand. Despite research into microalgae as a next-generation energy source, the land-sparing...

  10. Long-term increase of fat mass after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limitation of physical activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background A sedentary lifestyle and increased consumption of energy dense food have become more common in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to study long term effects on body composition after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limited physical activity in young normal weight subjects. Methods Eighteen subjects, mean age 26 (6.6) years, increased their energy intake with in average 70% and physical activity were not to exceed 5000 steps/day. Body composition was measured by Dual energy x-ray (DXA) at baseline, after the intervention and after 12 months. A matched control group was also included. ANOVA and Student's paired and unpaired t-test were used. Results During the intervention body weight increased with 6.4 (2.8) kg and DXA measurements showed increases of both fat free mass and fat mass. Six months after the intervention the subjects had lost most of the weight gain, - 4.7 (3.1) kg. Twelve months after the intervention body weight had increased with 1.5 (2.4) kg compared to baseline (p = 0.018). DXA measurements at 12 months showed unchanged fat free mass compared to baseline but higher fat mass, + 1.4 (1.9) kg (p = 0.01). After 2.5 years the increase of body weight was 3.1 (4.0) kg (p = 0.01) while there was no change in controls compared to baseline, + 0.1(2.5) kg (p = 0.88). Conclusion One year after a short term intervention with increased fast food based hyper-alimentation there was an increase of fat mass but unchanged fat free mass. As the change of fat mass was larger than expected from prospective epidemiological studies and as there was no increase of body weight in controls it raises the issue whether there is a long-term effect to increase fat mass of a short period of hyper-alimentation. PMID:20738843

  11. Long-term increase of fat mass after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limitation of physical activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernersson Åsa

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A sedentary lifestyle and increased consumption of energy dense food have become more common in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to study long term effects on body composition after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limited physical activity in young normal weight subjects. Methods Eighteen subjects, mean age 26 (6.6 years, increased their energy intake with in average 70% and physical activity were not to exceed 5000 steps/day. Body composition was measured by Dual energy x-ray (DXA at baseline, after the intervention and after 12 months. A matched control group was also included. ANOVA and Student's paired and unpaired t-test were used. Results During the intervention body weight increased with 6.4 (2.8 kg and DXA measurements showed increases of both fat free mass and fat mass. Six months after the intervention the subjects had lost most of the weight gain, - 4.7 (3.1 kg. Twelve months after the intervention body weight had increased with 1.5 (2.4 kg compared to baseline (p = 0.018. DXA measurements at 12 months showed unchanged fat free mass compared to baseline but higher fat mass, + 1.4 (1.9 kg (p = 0.01. After 2.5 years the increase of body weight was 3.1 (4.0 kg (p = 0.01 while there was no change in controls compared to baseline, + 0.1(2.5 kg (p = 0.88. Conclusion One year after a short term intervention with increased fast food based hyper-alimentation there was an increase of fat mass but unchanged fat free mass. As the change of fat mass was larger than expected from prospective epidemiological studies and as there was no increase of body weight in controls it raises the issue whether there is a long-term effect to increase fat mass of a short period of hyper-alimentation.

  12. Climate change and health in Earth's future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

    2014-02-01

    Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

  13. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  14. Seasonal Variation in the Voluntary Food Intake of Domesticated Cats (Felis Catus)

    OpenAIRE

    Serisier, Samuel; Feugier, Alexandre; Delmotte, Sebastien; Biourge, Vincent; German, Alexander James

    2014-01-01

    There are numerous reports about seasonal cycles on food intake in animals but information is limited in dogs and cats. A 4-year prospective, observational, cohort study was conducted to assess differences in food intake in 38 ad-libitum-fed adult colony cats, of various breeds, ages and genders. Individual food intake was recorded on a daily basis, and the mean daily intake for each calendar month was calculated. These data were compared with climatic data (temperature and daylight length) f...

  15. Seasonal Variation in the Voluntary Food Intake of Domesticated Cats (Felis Catus)

    OpenAIRE

    Samuel Serisier; Alexandre Feugier; Sébastien Delmotte; Vincent Biourge; Alexander James German

    2014-01-01

    International audience There are numerous reports about seasonal cycles on food intake in animals but information is limited in dogs and cats. A 4-year prospective, observational, cohort study was conducted to assess differences in food intake in 38 ad-libitum-fed adult colony cats, of various breeds, ages and genders. Individual food intake was recorded on a daily basis, and the mean daily intake for each calendar month was calculated. These data were compared with climatic data (temperat...

  16. Final synthesis report and resolutions: Agadir international conference 'The integration of sustainable agriculture, rural development, and ecosystems in the context of climate change, the energy crisis and food insecurity'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shahid, S.A.; D' Silva, J.; Bennion, P.; Behnassi, M.

    2009-07-01

    The three days of deliberations of the Agadir International Conference focused on the high level topic of sustainable agriculture, rural development and ecosystems in the context of climate change, the energy crisis, the rise in global population and food insecurity. This conference came at a time of increasing international concern with the climate change, energy shortage and global hunger challenges. More than a hundred scientists, experts and governmental officials from 40 countries provided their perspectives on these critical issues from an interdisciplinary view. The key points from the five plenary sessions and fourteen panels are given.

  17. Optimizing water management practices for enhancing rice production and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Asia: The food-water-climate nexus approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, B.; Tian, H.; Lu, C.; Yang, J.; Ren, W.

    2015-12-01

    Rice fields, supporting over half of the global population, consumed around 30% of the freshwater used for global crop growth and identified as one of the major methane (CH4) sources. Asia, in where 90% of rice is consumed, took over 90% of the total CH4 emission from the global rice field. With the increasing water scarcity and rapidly growth population, it is urgent to address how to simultaneously maintain or even increase food production, reduce water consumption, and benefit climate. In this study, we used a process-based model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model), which has the capability to simultaneously simulate the carbon, water, and nitrogen fluxes and storages within the terrestrial ecosystem, and also the exchanges of greenhouse gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, to quantify the magnitude, spatial and temporal variation of rice production and CH4 emissions under different water management practices. Simulated results have been evaluated against field observations, inventory-based and atmospheric inversion estimates. By implementing a set of experimental simulations, the results could provide insights for reasonable implementation of optimum water management practices, which is also crucial for policy maker to make trade-off decisions to increase yield and reduce GHG emissions through effective mitigation strategies.

  18. [Comparison of potential yield and resource utilization efficiency of main food crops in three provinces of Northeast China under climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-yu; Yang, Xiao-guang; Sun, Shuang; Xie, Wen-juan

    2015-10-01

    Based on the daily data of 65 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 and the crop phenology data in the potential cultivation zones of thermophilic and chimonophilous crops in Northeast China, the crop potential yields were calculated through step-by-step correction method. The spatio-temporal distribution of the crop potential yields at different levels was analyzed. And then we quantified the limitations of temperature and precipitation on the crop potential yields and compared the differences in the climatic resource utilization efficiency. The results showed that the thermal potential yields of six crops (including maize, rice, spring wheat, sorghum, millet and soybean) during the period 1961-2010 deceased from west to east. The climatic potential yields of the five crops (spring wheat not included) were higher in the south than in the north. The potential yield loss rate due to temperature limitations of the six crops presented a spatial distribution pattern and was higher in the east than in the west. Among the six main crops, the yield potential loss rate due to temperature limitation of the soybean was the highest (51%), and those of the other crops fluctuated within the range of 33%-41%. The potential yield loss rate due to water limitation had an obvious regional difference, and was high in Songnen Plain and Changbai Mountains. The potential yield loss rate of spring wheat was the highest (50%), and those of the other four rainfed crops fluctuated within the range of 8%-10%. The solar energy utilization efficiency of the six main crops ranged from 0.9% to 2.7%, in the order of maize> sorghum>rice>millet>spring wheat>soybean. The precipitation utilization efficiency of the maize, sorghum, spring wheat, millet and soybean under rainfed conditions ranged from 8 to 35 kg . hm-2 . mm-1, in the order of maize>sorghum>spring wheat>millet>soybean. In those areas with lower efficiency of solar energy utilization and precipitation utilization, such as Changbai

  19. Effects of season on household food security and the nutritional status of smallholder rural households in Nakuru District, Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kigutha, H.N.

    1995-01-01

    Leiden [etc.] : African Studies Centre [etc.] (FNSP Report, no. 55), p. 71, 1995.This study investigates the effects of a unimodal climatic pattern on household food availability among rural households with limited landholdings and low cash incomes, and how this in turn affects food consumption and

  20. Assessing climate impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Wohl, Ellen E.; Roger S. Pulwarty; Zhang, Jian Yun

    2000-01-01

    Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fu...

  1. Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    The IJOEM

    2010-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathways could stabilise the global average atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) at 450 ppm, the level which has a 50% chance of keeping the temperature rise to 2 oC? What policies are nee...

  2. Limits to adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, Kirstin; Berkhout, Frans; Preston, Benjamin L.; Klein, Richard J. T.; Midgley, Guy; Shaw, M. Rebecca

    2013-04-01

    An actor-centered, risk-based approach to defining limits to social adaptation provides a useful analytic framing for identifying and anticipating these limits and informing debates over society's responses to climate change.

  3. Proactive systems for early warning of potential impacts of natural disasters on food safety: Climate-change-induced extreme events as case in point

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Noordam, M.Y.; Franz, E.; Willems, D.J.M.; Boxall, A.

    2013-01-01

    According to a recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of certain climate extremes is expected to increase under the influence of climate change. This review presents potential direct and indirect effects of such extremes as well as other severe weather and hydr

  4. GETTING INDIGENOUS PEOPLES AND MARGINALIZED POPULATIONS TO SHARE TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES TO WATER AND FOOD SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwasi Frimpong-Mensah

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The depth of traditional knowledge found in indigenous and marginalized communities dictates the extent to which their populations adapt to and mitigates climate change much as the intactness of biodiversity of the agro-ecosystems on which they depend does. Often, a lot more is done to ensure the intactness of biodiversity than the effective sharing of traditional knowledge in a quest to empower indigenous and marginalized populations to adapt to and mitigate climate change. But the latter is equally important as the former, and the two ought to go close together in empowering indigenous and marginalized populations. Nonetheless, the effective sharing of a dynamic commodity as traditional knowledge requires an all inclusive approach which involves consultation with all groups as the leaving out or the limited participation of any group could undermine the sharing process. However, there are issues that arise in ensuring an all-inclusive traditional knowledge sharing process. Issues may be viewed as challenges or opportunities to the effective sharing of traditional knowledge, and arise as a result of cultural, political, economic, legal, geographical, technical, historical, and institutional differences (subtle as they may be within/among indigenous and marginalized groups. Thus, this paper captures these challenges and opportunities that characterize the all-inclusive sharing of traditional knowledge within/among the different groups in indigenous and marginalized populations. And, recommends the best way forward by using competent actors who are self-motivated to bring all their competences to the facilitation of all-inclusive traditional knowledge sharing within/among the different groups for oneness of voice of indigenous and marginalized communities.

  5. Derivatives Trading, Climate Science and Human Rights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haigh, Matthew

    the élites of science and privately managed capital. Its outcomes have been disastrous in terms of climate management. Published rankings of corporations' climate-readiness bear tenuous linkages with scientific data. The linking of corporate revenues to corporate carbon emissions data has represented...... for capital flows associated with climate management. Media communications and decision making theories are used to interpret data drawn from participant observation and interviews with climate scientists, policy makers and institutional investors. Findings - The framework suggests a digital divide between...... North-South capital flows. Combined outcome is that access to food and clean water for nearly half the world's population remains chronically underfunded. Research limitations/implications - Descriptions of the conditions and mechanics of capital flows provide bases for research on the connections...

  6. 食品安全立法技术的限度及其修正%Subject:The Limit and Amending about the lawmaking Technology of Food Safety

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    余丹

    2012-01-01

    The present, according to the absolute -rationalism,the lawmaking technology of food safety is set down, this lawmak- ing conception is that believe man hold the absolute - rational recolgaizing capability and treated as anything from obverse, which the character of legislation technology regard "increasing good" as the aim of lawmaking, therfore, the determinacy cause the one - sidedness at one time. Berpl and Kun, the scientist and philosopher, their limited - rationalism think that the rule of a theory science is not "conformable" but "fake- testified" or "contradicted" ,which the character of lawmaking technology is that the aim of lawmaking is not to increase good but decease bad. Therefore, we can amend the legislation technology by the analysis vis- ual of the limited - rationalism, which will made lawmaking technology not only the determinacy, but also the perfectibility.%目前,食品安全立法技术是基于完全理性论基础上制定的,这种立法理念是相信人拥有完全理性认识能力,对一切事物采取正面看法,其立法技术特征是以“增进善”为立法目的,因而在力图表明技术指标确定性的同时,导致了片面性。科学哲学家波普尔、库恩的有限理性论则认为,衡量一种理论科学地位的标准不是“可证实”,而是“可证伪性”或“可反驳性”,在此立法理念指引下的立法技术特征表现为:立法目的并不一定会“增善”,但却可以“减少恶”。因此,以有限理性论为分析视角,可修正立法技术,使立法技术指标不仅具有确定性,更具有全面性。

  7. Integrating climate change into agricultural research for development in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Anderson, Simon

    2011-09-15

    African agriculture is already struggling to meet increasing demand for food. Climate change, which will alter agroecological conditions and looks set to arrest and decrease agricultural yields on the continent, will make it even harder to achieve food security. Boosting agricultural productivity in Africa, especially in the face of climate change, cannot be achieved without the benefits of cutting edge science. Advances in technology development and transfer, capacity building and policy research must be harnessed by developing and disseminating relevant strategies and technologies, and improving policy environments. The European Initiative for Agricultural Research for Development (EIARD), which facilitates and coordinates European policy and support for agricultural research for development, must integrate climate change into its activities and ensure that agricultural research for development and climate change adaptation are not disjointed. This demands a more strategic and coordinated approach from the initiative — one that reflects African realities, responds to African priorities for adaptation and development, and makes the best use of limited resources.

  8. Philosophy of climate science part II: modelling climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the second of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this second part about modelling climate change, the topics of climate modelling, confirmation of climate models, the limits of climate projections, uncertainty and finally model ensembles will be discussed.

  9. Deteriorating food security in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milesi, C.; Samanta, A.; Hashimoto, H.; Kumar, K.; Ganguly, S.; Thenkabail, P. S.; Srivastava, A. N.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

    2009-12-01

    One of the major challenges we face on our planet is increasing agricultural production to meet the dietary requirements of an additional 2.5 billion people by the mid of the century while limiting cropland expansion and other damages to natural resources. This problem is even more so challenging given that nearly all the population growth will take place where the majority of the hungry live today and where ongoing and future climate changes are projected to most negatively impact agricultural production, the semi-arid tropics (SAT). The SAT contain 40% of the global irrigated and rainfed croplands in over 50 developing countries and a growing population of over a billion and half people, many of which live in absolute poverty and strongly depend on agriculture that is constrained by chronic water shortages. Rates of food grain production in many of the countries of the SAT have progressively increased since the mid 1960s aided by the Green Revolution and relatively favourable climatic conditions. However, aggregated agricultural production statistics indicate that the rate of food grain production has recently stalled or declined in several of the countries in this region, escalating the concerns over matters of food security, that is availability of food and one’s access to it, in a region where many people live in extreme poverty, depend on an agrarian economy and are expected to face increasingly worse climatic conditions in the near future. In this paper we analyze the agricultural deceleration and its drivers over the country of India, which faces the daunting challenge of needing a 50-100% increase in yields of major crops by the middle to the 21st century to feed its growing population. We analyze the long term (1982-2006) record of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) together with climate, land use, and crop production

  10. Vegan Food Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Story" 5 Things to Know About Zika & Pregnancy Vegan Food Guide KidsHealth > For Parents > Vegan Food Guide ... a Vegan Diet Is Vegetarian the Same as Vegan? Lots of people limit their intake of meat — ...

  11. From climate-smart agriculture to climate-smart landscapes

    OpenAIRE

    Scherr Sara J; Shames Seth; Friedman Rachel

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background For agricultural systems to achieve climate-smart objectives, including improved food security and rural livelihoods as well as climate change adaptation and mitigation, they often need to be take a landscape approach; they must become ‘climate-smart landscapes’. Climate-smart landscapes operate on the principles of integrated landscape management, while explicitly incorporating adaptation and mitigation into their management objectives. Results An assessment of climate ch...

  12. Ethical Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn

    aspects of ethical food consumption and, based on this, provide concrete policy inputs. The scope of the research is highly interdisciplinary, and includes perspectives from ethics and the social sciences on food consumption. Paper I: Can increased organic consumption mitigate climate changes...... mitigation via decreased consumption of meat. Second, we investigate the extent to which the reduced consumption of meat by organic food consumers is motivated by climate change concerns. The questions are approached by analysing panel and survey data on organic food consumption. Paper II: The role......So-called ‘ethical’ food products have spread across the industrialised world. These are products that are produced under labelling schemes with extraordinary attentiveness to issues such as farm animal welfare and environmental protection. Political decision-makers and other stakeholders in food...

  13. Ch. 7: Food Safety, Nutrition, and Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    A safe and nutritious food supply is a vital component of food security. Food security, in a public health context, can be summarized as permanent access to a sufficient, safe, and nutritious food supply needed to maintain an active and healthy lifestyle. The impacts of climate change on food produc...

  14. The Netherlands in a sustainable world. Poverty, climate and biodiversity. Second Sustainability Outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poverty reduction, climate change and biodiversity loss to be tackled as an integrated global problem. The world is too small to simultaneously produce enough food (including meat) for everyone and to deliver biofuels on a large enough scale to slow down climate change and maintain biodiversity. In this report sufficient options for fighting poverty, tackling climate change and limiting the loss of biodiversity are presented and discussed. The costs of these options can be limited to a few percent of GDP in 2040. However this will only be possible with coordinated international policies

  15. Copepods in ice-covered seas—Distribution, adaptations to seasonally limited food, metabolism, growth patterns and life cycle strategies in polar seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conover, R. J.; Huntley, M.

    1991-07-01

    While a seasonal ice cover limits light penetration into both polar seas for up to ten months a year, its presence is not entirely negative. The mixed layer under sea ice will generally be shallower than in open water at the same latitude and season. Ice forms a substrate on which primary production can be concentrated, a condition which contrasts with the generally dilute nutritional conditions which prevail in the remaining ocean. The combination of a shallow, generally stable mixed layer with a close proximity to abundant food make the under-ice zone a suitable nursery for both pelagic and benthic species, an upside-down benthos for opportunistic substrate browsers, and a rich feeding environment for species often considered to be neritic in temperate environments. Where the ice cover is not continuous there may be a retreating ice edge that facilitates the seasonal production of phytoplankton primarily through increased stability from the melt water. Ice edge blooms similarly encourage secondary production by pelagic animals. Pseudocalanus acuspes, which may be the most abundant and productive copepod in north polar latitudes, initiates growth at the start of the "spring bloom" of epontic algae, reaching sexual maturity at breakup or slightly before. In the Southern Hemisphere, the small neritic copepod Paralabidocera antarctica and adult krill have been observed to utilize ice algae. Calanus hyperboreus breeds in the dark season at depth and its buoyant eggs, slowly developing on the ascent, reach the under-ice layer in April as nauplii ready to benefit from the primary production there. On the other hand, C. glacialis may initiate ontogenetic migrations and reproduction in response to increased erosion of ice algae due to solar warming and melting at the ice-water interface. While the same species in a phytoplankton bloom near the ice edge reproduces actively, those under still-consolidated ice nearby can have immature gonads. Diel migration and diel feeding

  16. Climate change adaptation: Uncovering constraints to the use of adaptation strategies among food crop farmers in South-west, Nigeria using principal component analysis (PCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moradeyo Adebanjo Otitoju

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the constraints to the use of climate variability/change adaptation strategies in South-west Nigeria. Multistage random technique was employed to select the location and the respondents. Descriptive statistics and principal component analysis (PCA were the analytical tools engaged in this study. The constraints to climate variability and change examined before did not use PCA but generalized factor analysis. Hence, there is need to examine these constraints extensively using PCA. Uncovering the constraints to the use of climate variability/change adaptation strategies among crop framers is important to give a realistic direction in the development of farmer-inclusive climate policies in Nigeria. The PCA result showed that the principal constraints that the farmers faced in climate change adaptation were public, institutional and labour constraint; land, neighbourhood norms and religious beliefs constraint; high cost of inputs, technological and information constraint; farm distance, access to climate information, off-farm job and credit constraint; and poor agricultural programmes and service delivery constraint. These findings pointed out the need for both the government and non-government organizations to intensify efforts on institutional, technological and farmers’ friendly land tenure and information systems as effective measures to guide inclusive climate change adaptation policies and development in South-west Nigeria.

  17. Daphnia food limitation in three hypereutrophic Dutch lakes: Evidence for exclusion of large-bodied species by interfering filaments of cyanobacteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeMott, W.R.; Gulati, R.D.; Van Donk, E.

    2001-01-01

    The Loosdrecht Lakes comprise three shallow, hypereutrophic lakes in The Netherlands. Research conducted over the past two decades suggests that absence of large-bodied Daphnia from these lakes can be explained by size-specific effects of both poor food quality and predatory mortality. The phytoplan

  18. Business strategies for climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies published in 2014, whether by IPCC scientists or New Climate Economy economists, showed that it is still possible to combat climate change without having to give up on economic growth and human development. This applies both to emerging countries which do not want to give up on their promised growth and to developed countries that fear having to surrender their lifestyles. Positioning ourselves on a greenhouse gas emission trajectory enabling us to limit global warming to 2 deg. C by the end of this century nonetheless requires a far-reaching and immediate response coordinated by all economic and political stakeholders. Companies know that they have a major role to play in dealing with the climate challenge. They are ready to change direction, as the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Kimoon urged them to do in September 2014. Companies of all sizes engaged in this process innovate and develop technological, organisational and financial solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the consequences of climate change. They are adjusting their strategies and economic models in response to these new challenges. It is these solutions that are presented in this publication 'Business strategies for climate'. All sectors of the economy are concerned; companies in all sectors can take a forward-looking approach to the changes caused by climate change and mobilise their resources to provide effective responses in line with the issues at stake. Global economic growth is resulting in a huge increase in the demand for mobility and transport. Companies are working on ways to improve vehicles, develop engines that are less fossil-fuel dependent, and on finding new ways for people to move around and to transport goods. The challenge is considerable: it will involve working with the growing need for transport while at the same time massively reducing the sector's greenhouse gas emissions. Cities are home to an ever-increasing number of people

  19. A Framework for Effective Use of Hydroclimate Models in Climate-Change Adaptation Planning for Managed Habitats with Limited Hydrologic Response Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esralew, Rachel A.; Flint, Lorraine; Thorne, James H.; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Alan

    2016-07-01

    Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981-2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule's Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3-100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10-20 to 40-60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

  20. Climate, greenhouse effect, energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The book has sections on the sun as energy source, the earth climate and it's changes and factors influencing this, the greenhouse effect on earth and other planets, greenhouse gases and aerosols and their properties and importance, historic climate and paleoclimate, climatic models and their uses and limitations, future climate, consequences of climatic changes, uncertainties regarding the climate and measures for reducing the greenhouse effect. Finally there are sections on energy and energy resources, the use, sources such as fossil fuels, nuclear power, renewable resources, heat pumps, energy storage and environmental aspects and the earth magnetic field is briefly surveyed

  1. How low can we go? An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK food system and the scope reduction by 2050. Report for the WWF and Food Climate Research Network

    OpenAIRE

    Audsley, Eric; Brander, M.; Chatterton, Julia C.; Murphy-Bokern,Donal; Webster, C.; Williams, Adrian G

    2010-01-01

    Summary The overall aim of this study was to develop a set of scenarios that explore how greenhouse gas emissions from the UK food system may be reduced by 70% by the year 2050. The work is focused on all emissions from the supply chains and systems, not just the emissions from the UK food chain that arise in the UK. The study comprises an audit of the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the UK food economy and an examination of the scope for substantial reductions of thes...

  2. Food processing in action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radio frequency (RF) heating is a commonly used food processing technology that has been applied for drying and baking as well as thawing of frozen foods. Its use in pasteurization, as well as for sterilization and disinfection of foods, is more limited. This column will review various RF heating ap...

  3. Safety Trap Analysis of NationaI Standard of MaximumResidue Limits for Pesticide in Food%我国农药残留国家标准的安全隐患探析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李太平

    2011-01-01

    [目的]农药残留国家标准GB 2763-2005是判别食品安全的重要依据,研究标准本身是否存在安全隐患,对保障食品安全具有重要现实意义.[方法]利用农药最大残留限量(MRLs)、日允许摄入量(ADI)与被测食品每日最大理论摄人量(TDI)三者数量关系,计算了GB 2763-2005的439项指标的TDI值,并与消费者每日实际摄人量(RDI)进行了比较.[结果]发现35项指标的食品有不同比例消费者的RDI超过TDI,占总指标的7.3%.[结论]我国现行农药残留国家标准存在较大安全隐患.%[Aims] The national standard of maximum residue limits for pesticides in food GB 2763-2005 is the key base of food safety risk identification. Discussing the dependability of pesticide residue standards is very important for controlling food safety risk. [Methods] The national standard's theory daily intake (TDI) related with foods of 439 residue indexes of GB 2763-2005 was calculated with the quantity relation between MRLs, ADI and TDI, and compared with the customer's real daily intake (RDI) related with foods. [Results] There were 35 residue indexes related with foods which TDI were over their RDI with different proportion customers, accounted for 7.3% of total indexes in it. [Conclusions] It showed that there is a big potential safety risk in the present national standard of pesticide residue.

  4. Comparative study on microbiological limits for ready-to-eat foods%即食食品微生物限量标准比较分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐进; 庞璐

    2012-01-01

    Based on the analysis of microbiological criteria for ready-to-eat foods in Codex Alimentarius Commission, the European Union, Australia, New Zealand, England and HongKong China, the article provides recommendations for the elaboration of microbiological criteria of Chinese national food standard.%本文通过比较我国香港地区与国际食品法典委员会、欧盟、澳大利亚、新西兰、英国即食食品微生物限量标准,为制定我国的食品安全微生物标准提供技术依据.

  5. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts; decoupling agriculture' s N2O and CH4 emissions from population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.

  6. Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

    2012-02-15

    The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human

  7. Food Poisoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Got Homework? Here's Help White House Lunch Recipes Food Poisoning KidsHealth > For Kids > Food Poisoning Print A ... find out how to avoid it. What Is Food Poisoning? Food poisoning comes from eating foods that ...

  8. Food Crises and Gender Inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Bina Agarwal

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the current food crises, the projected effect of climate change, the vulnerabilities created by regional concentrations of food production, imports and exports, and the significant role of women as food producers, consumers and family food managers. Bridging productivity differentials between male and female farmers, by helping women overcome production constraints, would significantly increase agricultural output. This becomes an imperative, given the feminization of agri...

  9. Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Scott; Delage, François; Wang, Guomin; Smith, Ian; Kociuba, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Observed surface temperature trends over the period 1998-2012/2014 have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short-trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in the model values and the implications for global warming generally. Here we re-examine these issues, but as they relate to changes over much longer-term changes. We find that on multi-decadal time scales there is little evidence for any change in the observed global warming rate, but some evidence for a recent temporary slowdown in the warming rate in the Pacific. This multi-decadal slowdown can be partly explained by a cool phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and a short-term excess of La Niña events. We also analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP climate models. All of the model simulations examined simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This difference cannot be fully explained by observed internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. Models which simulate the greatest global warming over the past half-century also project warming that is among the highest of all models by the end of the twenty-first century, under both low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Given that the same models are poorest in representing observed multi-decadal temperature change, confidence in the highest projections is reduced.

  10. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Kanchan Joshi; Preeti Chaturvedi

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  11. Genetic Diversity and Ecological Niche Modelling of Wild Barley: Refugia, Large-Scale Post-LGM Range Expansion and Limited Mid-Future Climate Threats?

    OpenAIRE

    Joanne Russell; Maarten van Zonneveld; Dawson, Ian K.; Allan Booth; Robbie Waugh; Brian Steffenson

    2014-01-01

    Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum) in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare). Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR) and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR) markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-m...

  12. Enabling food security by verifying agricultural carbon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahiluoto, H; Smith, P; Moran, D;

    2014-01-01

    Rewarding smallholders for sequestering carbon in agricultural land can improve food security while mitigating climate change. Verification of carbon offsets in food-insecure regions is possible and achievable through rigorously controlled monitoring......Rewarding smallholders for sequestering carbon in agricultural land can improve food security while mitigating climate change. Verification of carbon offsets in food-insecure regions is possible and achievable through rigorously controlled monitoring...

  13. The Guanajuato Communication about the Potential for Implementation of Conservation Practices for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation to Achieve Food Security in Mexico During the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    The scientific literature reports that climate change will impact weather in North America, with projections for a drier and hotter southeastern United States and northwestern Mexico. The areas of Mexico that are projected to be impacted cover important grain areas of the country. Additionally, seve...

  14. The Nanchang communication about the potential for the implementation of conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve food security in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Several recent peer reviewed manuscripts have reported on the great challenges humanity is confronting during the XXI century, including a changing climate, depletion of water resources from groundwater and/or snow caps sources that are needed for agricultural production, deforestation, desertificat...

  15. A framework for evaluating the influence of climate, dispersal limitation, and biotic interactions using fossil pollen associations across the late Quaternary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blois, Jessica L.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Behrensmeyer, Anna K.;

    2014-01-01

    Environmental conditions, dispersal lags, and interactions among species are major factors structuring communities through time and across space. Ecologists have emphasized the importance of biotic interactions in determining local patterns of species association. In contrast, abiotic limits...... with significant patterns of taxon association. Most taxon pairs that exhibited co-occurrence patterns indicative of biotic interactions at one time did not exhibit significant associations at other times. Evidence for environmental filtering and dispersal limitation was weakest for aggregated pairs between 16...

  16. Advantages and limits to the fermentation of easily-degradable industrial and food wastes in sewage treatment works; Vorteile und Grenzen der Vergaerung von leicht abbaubaren Industrie- und Lebensmittelabfaellen in Abwasserreinigungsanlagen. Vergleich zu landwirtschaftlichen Anlagen - Schlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bachmann, N.; Wellinger, A. [Nova Energie GmbH, Aadorf (Switzerland); Bachmann, N. [EREP SA, Aclens (Switzerland)

    2009-12-15

    This final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the advantages and limits that apply to the fermentation of industrial and food wastes in sewage treatment facilities in comparison to agricultural installations. For this ecological review, a material-flow analysis was made which permitted the nutrient loss to be quantified. The report presents data on the energy and carbon dioxide balances for the method and also looks at the method from an economical point of view. Co-fermentation in the wastewater treatment plant in Berne, Switzerland, and in agricultural plant are examined.

  17. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  18. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

  19. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  20. Will the Three Gorges Dam affect the underwater light climate of Vallisneria spiralis L. and food habitat of Siberian crane in Poyang Lake?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wu, G.; Leeuw, de J.; Skidmore, A.K.; Prins, H.H.T.; Best, E.P.H.; Liu, Y.

    2009-01-01

    Almost 95% of the entire population of the Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus) winter in Poyang Lake, China, where they forage on the tubers of the submerged aquatic macrophyte Vallisneria spiralis. The Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River may possibly affect this food source of the Siberian crane b

  1. Food security: Fertilizing hidden hunger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Levermann, Anders

    2014-07-01

    Atmospheric CO2 fertilization may go some way to compensating the negative impact of climatic changes on crop yields, but it comes at the expense of a deterioration of the current nutritional value of food.

  2. Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

    2011-12-01

    Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of

  3. Attributing illness to food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batz, M. B.; Doyle, M. P.; Morris, J. G.;

    2005-01-01

    Identification and prioritization of effective food safety interventions require an understanding of the relationship between food and pathogen from farm to consumption. Critical to this cause is food attribution, the capacity to attribute cases of foodborne disease to the food vehicle or other...... source responsible for illness. A wide variety of food attribution approaches and data are used around the world including the analysis of outbreak data, case-control studies, microbial subtyping and source tracking methods, and expert judgment, among others. The Food Safety Research Consortium sponsored...... the Food Attribution Data Workshop in October 2003 to discuss the virtues and limitations of these approaches and to identify future options for collecting food attribution data in the United States. We summarize workshop discussions and identify challenges that affect progress in this critical component...

  4. Food health law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edinger, Wieke Willemijn Huizing

    2014-01-01

    The EU has developed a detailed stringent set of food safety rules aimed at limiting or containing the risk that people experience negative health effects from the consumption of food. In doing so, the legislator has focused on food safety in a relatively narrow sense, not including the potential...... risks to human health of foods with, e.g., negative nutritional features. While EU food safety legislation seems successful in preventing food-borne illnesses, public focus has shifted to the growing prevalence of lifestyle-related illnesses. There is convincing scientific evidence of a correlation...... between obesity and non-communicable diseases, on the one hand, and unhealthy food on the other. The EU has taken initiatives to stop this development, but these are directed at guiding consumer choice rather than at regulating foods from the point of view of their composition and nutritional value...

  5. Functional Food and Organic Food are Competing Rather than Supporting Concepts in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Susanne Bügel; Angelika Ploeger; Aneta Załęcka; Johannes Kahl; Machteld Huber

    2012-01-01

    A review of recent literature pertaining to organic and functional food was conducted according its conceptual background. Functional and organic food both belong to fast growing segments of the European food market. Both are food according to the European food regulations, but organic food is further regulated by the European regulation for organic agriculture and food production. This regulation restricts the number of food additives and limits substantial changes in the food. This may caus...

  6. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  7. Climate friendly dietary guidelines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Ellen; Mogensen, Lisbeth; Thorsen, Anne Vibeke;

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate how the present Danish diet could be changed in a climate friendly direction that follows the recommendations of a healthy diet. The carbon footprint (CF) of an average Danish diet was calculated and compared to CF of a recommended healthy diet by 1......%, if the healthy diet was eaten instead of the average current diet. However, if the diet was climate optimized by choosing foods with a low CF within the food groups; meat, vegetables and fruit, CF of this diet may be reduced by 23 % compared to CF of the average diet....

  8. Food safety information and food demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smed, Sinne; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2005-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze how news about food-related health risks affects consumers’ demands for safe food products. Design/methodology/approach – By identifying structural breaks in an econometrically estimated demand model, news with permanent impact on demand...... induces a permanent increase in the demand for pasteurized eggs, while more moderate negative news influences demand temporarily and to a lesser extent. There is, however, considerable variation in the response to food safety news across socio-demographic groups of consumers. Research limitations....../implications – The study has focused on the demand for raw eggs. Responses to food safety news may differ across foods. Furthermore, the study abstracts from possible cross-effects of safety news concerning other foods. Practical implications – The findings may be utilized for optimization of the timing and targeting...

  9. Food Allergies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Got Homework? Here's Help White House Lunch Recipes Food Allergies KidsHealth > For Kids > Food Allergies Print A ... cow's milk eggs soy wheat What Is a Food Allergy? Food allergies happen when the immune system ...

  10. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  11. 即食凉拌食品中微生物污染情况及大肠菌群限量的调查分析%Investigation of Instant Cold Foods and Microbial Contamination of Coliform Limit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李梓娴; 速存芬; 陈磊; 刘辉光

    2015-01-01

    Objective The purpose of the microbial contamination of food ready to eat salad investigation and analysis, to develop a reliable instant cold food microbiological limits. Methods A "People's Republic of China national standards of food hygiene mi-crobiological testing methods" and the national monitoring network and other food-borne illness as a monitoring program, instant cold foods in the restrants and supermarbets of Qujing for microbial contamination were detected From May to september 2014. The main test items include coliform bacteria, yeasts, Staphylococcus aureus, Shigella, Salmonella, hemolytic streptococcus, E. coli cause diarrhea, Listeria monocytogenes, and the total number of colonies. Results 80 parts of instant salad product samples exam-ined 31 retail processing unit processing the target pathogen detection does not appear. The positive rate of coliform detection pro-cess is about 72.25%, the main contaminating bacteria. Conclusion Coliforms in instant cold dishes as the main pollution flora, for a limited countries such flora as soon as possible as soon as possible health and safety standards, recommended instant cold foods coliform limit should be less than 100 MPN/g.%目的:对即食凉拌食品的微生物污染状况进行调查分析,为即食凉拌食品制定出可靠的微生物限量标准。方法采用《中华人民共和国国家标准食品卫生微生物学检验方法》以及国家食源性疾病监测网等作为监测方案,2014年5要9月份曲靖市管辖区部分饭店超市的即食凉拌食品中微生物污染情况进行检测。主要检测项目包括大肠菌群、酵母菌、金黄色葡萄球菌、志贺菌、沙门菌、溶血性链球菌、致泻性大肠埃希菌、单增李斯特菌以及菌落总数。结果进行检查的31家零售加工单位加工生产的80份即食凉拌品样品中未出现目标致病菌的检出。检测过程中大肠菌群的阳性率约为72.25%,为主要污染菌。结论在

  12. Overcoming Food Security Challenges within an Energy/Water/Food Nexus (EWFN Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria De Laurentiis

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenge of feeding nine billion people by 2050, in a context of constrained resources and growing environmental pressures posed by current food production methods on one side, and changing lifestyles and consequent shifts in dietary patterns on the other, exacerbated by the effects of climate change, has been defined as one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. The first step to achieve food security is to find a balance between the growing demand for food, and the limited production capacity. In order to do this three main pathways have been identified: employing sustainable production methods in agriculture, changing diets, and reducing waste in all stages of the food chain. The application of an energy, water and food nexus (EWFN approach, which takes into account the interactions and connections between these three resources, and the synergies and trade-offs that arise from the way they are managed, is a prerequisite for the correct application of these pathways. This work discusses how Life Cycle Assessment (LCA might be applicable for creating the evidence-base to foster such desired shifts in food production and consumption patterns.

  13. Seven Food System Metrics of Sustainable Nutrition Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Gustafson

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability considerations have been absent from most food security assessments conducted to date, despite the tremendous economic, environmental, and social implications of meeting accelerating food demand in the face of water shortages and climate change. In addition, previous food security work has generally focused only on achieving adequate calories, rather than addressing dietary diversity and micronutrient adequacy, both of which are critical to maintaining a healthy overall nutritional status. In response to the limitations of previous assessments, a new methodology is proposed here based on the concept of “sustainable nutrition security” (SNS. This novel assessment methodology is intended to remedy both kinds of deficiencies in the previous work by defining seven metrics, each based on a combination of multiple indicators, for use in characterizing sustainable nutrition outcomes of food systems: (1 food nutrient adequacy; (2 ecosystem stability; (3 food affordability and availability; (4 sociocultural wellbeing; (5 food safety; (6 resilience; and (7 waste and loss reduction. Each of the metrics comprises multiple indicators that are combined to derive an overall score (0–100. A novel SNS assessment methodology based on these metrics can be deployed by decision-makers and investors to set meaningful goals, track progress, and evaluate the potential impact of food system interventions intended to improve sustainability and human nutrition outcomes.

  14. 食品中黄曲霉毒素限量标准中的成本-效益分析%Cost-benefit analysis in setting up limitation standards of aflatoxins in foods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王君; 刘秀梅

    2011-01-01

    Objective To explore a reasonable limitation standard for afiatoxins in foods to protect the health of people in China with a cost-benefit analysis. Methods A traditional mathematical model and MOE ( margin of exposure) method was used to assess the effect of different limiting standards on health for total aflatoxins and aflatoxin BI in peanut, corn and rice, and the loss of foods under different limiting standard levels was also calculated. Results The change of limiting standards for total aflatoxins and afiatoxin B1 in peanut and corn might have no significant influence on reducing the prevalence of liver cancer in China, but the loss of foods was significantly different. The change of limiting standards for total afiatoxins and aflatoxin B1 in,ice might have significant influence both on reducing liver cancer and losing foods. Conclusion The following limiting standards is advisable: 20 μg/kg for total aflatoxins and 15 μg/kg for Aflatoxin B1 in peanut and its products, 20 μg/kg for total aflatoxins and 15 μg/kg for aflatoxin B1 in corn, lOμ g/kg for total aflatoxins and 5 μg/kg or 10 μg/kg for aflatoxin B1 in flce.%目的 通过成本-效益分析,探讨建立保护中国人群健康的合理的食品中黄曲霉毒素限量标准.方法 利用传统数学模型方法和暴露限值(MOE)方法评估花生及其制品、玉米、大米中不同膳食总黄曲霉毒素和黄曲霉毒素 B1 限量标准下的健康影响,同时计算各限量水平下的食品损失.结果花生及其制品、玉米中总黄曲霉毒素、黄曲霉毒素 B1 限量水平的改变对减少我国人群肝癌患病数的作用没有显著差别,但不同的限量水平却可导致显著不同的食品损失.大米中总黄曲霉毒素、黄曲霉毒素 B1 限量水平的改变对减少我国人群肝癌患病数的作用以及导致的食品损失有较显著的影响.结论 花生及其制品中总黄曲霉毒素 20μg/kg、黄曲霉毒素 B1 15μg/kg

  15. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  16. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-11-29

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

  17. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts: linking N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture to population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present. These are mainly developing countries and countries in transition, the so-called non-Annex I countries of the UNFCCC. However, intensification of agricultural production systems is currently closely linked to high emissions of greenhouse gases notably nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In this paper the relations between population growth, agricultural development and emissions of N2O and CH4 were assessed for 10 non-Annex I countries, viz. China, India, Vietnam, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Mongolia, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa. We combined FAO data on agricultural production levels, CENSUS data on population statistics and EDGAR data on N2O and CH4 emissions. The projected trends in agricultural production indicate that emissions of N2O and CH4 are expected to increase rapidly in the coming years and will level off from 2040 onwards. The results confirm the positive relation between population increase and increased emissions from agricultural activities for most countries. However, for some countries (South Africa, China and Mexico) this relation was weak or absent. Although numerous factors (e.g. changes in international trade) may have scattered the relation and we were unable to explain this decoupling, it suggests that population growth can be possible without additional emissions. The variation between the different countries and farming systems is however large and mitigation measures at farm-level should be tailored to the wide diversity in environmental conditions, regional customs and farming systems.

  18. Food security and sustainable intensification

    OpenAIRE

    H Charles J Godfray; Garnett, Tara

    2014-01-01

    The coming decades are likely to see increasing pressures on the global food system, both on the demand side from increasing population and per capita consumption, and on the supply side from greater competition for inputs and from climate change. This paper argues that the magnitude of the challenge is such that action is needed throughout the food system, on moderating demand, reducing waste, improving governance and producing more food. It discusses in detail the last component, arguing th...

  19. Ground water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food secu¬rity will probably intensify under climate chan...

  20. Food commodities from microalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Draaisma, R.B.; Wijffels, R.H.; Slegers, P.M.; Brentner, L.B.; Roy, A.; Barbosa, M.J.

    2013-01-01

    The prospect of sustainable production of food ingredients from photoautotrophic microalgae was reviewed. Clearly, there is scope for microalgal oils to replace functions of major vegetable oils, and in addition to deliver health benefits to food products. Furthermore, with a limited production surf

  1. Short-term water stress impacts on stomatal, mesophyll and biochemical limitations to photosynthesis differ consistently among tree species from contrasting climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Shuangxi; Medlyn, Belinda; Sabaté, Santiago; Sperlich, Dominik; Prentice, I Colin

    2014-10-01

    Predicting the large-scale consequences of drought in contrasting environments requires that we understand how drought effects differ among species originating from those environments. A previous meta-analysis of published experiments suggested that the effects of drought on both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations to photosynthesis may vary consistently among species from different hydroclimates. Here, we explicitly tested this hypothesis with two short-term water stress experiments on congeneric mesic and xeric species. One experiment was run in Australia using Eucalyptus species and the second was run in Spain using Quercus species as well as two more mesic species. In each experiment, plants were grown under moist conditions in a glasshouse, then deprived of water, and gas exchange was monitored. The stomatal response was analysed with a recently developed stomatal model, whose single parameter g1 represents the slope of the relationship between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis. The non-stomatal response was partitioned into effects on mesophyll conductance (gm), the maximum Rubisco activity (Vcmax) and the maximum electron transport rate (Jmax). We found consistency among the drought responses of g1, gm, Vcmax and Jmax, suggesting that drought imposes limitations on Rubisco activity and RuBP regeneration capacity concurrently with declines in stomatal and mesophyll conductance. Within each experiment, the more xeric species showed relatively high g1 under moist conditions, low drought sensitivity of g1, gm, Vcmax and Jmax, and more negative values of the critical pre-dawn water potential at which Vcmax declines most steeply, compared with the more mesic species. These results indicate adaptive interspecific differences in drought responses that allow xeric tree species to continue transpiration and photosynthesis for longer during periods without rain.

  2. Ground water and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Richard G; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the...

  3. 77 FR 4984 - Solicitation of Input From Stakeholders Regarding the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    ... identification to be admitted to the building. Please allow sufficient time to go through security. You may... areas; Childhood Obesity Prevention; Climate Change; Food Safety; Global Food Security;...

  4. An uncertain climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, E.A.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Production of food contributes to climate change and other forms of environmental impact. Input data used in environmental impact assessment models, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and nutrient balance (NB) analysis, may vary due to seasonal changes, geographical condi

  5. Beyond local climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; Lambin, Eric F.

    2014-01-01

    At the household level, nonfarm activities are thought to help rural poor households buffer against agricultural risks related to local climate variability by providing them with cash to buy food in the case of harvest shortfalls. Over the recent decades, households in rural Sub-Sahara have been...

  6. Research on current situation and establishing methods of pesticide maximum residue limits in food%食品中农药最大残留限量的现状及制定方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨艳红; 姜兆兴; 赵敏

    2015-01-01

    食品中农药的最大残留限量(MRLs)是保障食品质量安全的重要立法依据,也是指导食品和农产品等生产的关键技术指标。MRLs的制定方法不仅影响农产品行业的持续发展,而且还对提高我国农产品行业的国际竞争力起到积极作用。本文简要介绍目前国内外 MRLs 标准的现状、涉及农药的种类以及制定农药最大残留限量的依据,概述了基于田间实验数据制定最大残留限量的方法,并且比较了国际上欧盟(EU)、北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)成员国、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)及农药残留联席会议(JMPR)的限量制定方案。%Pesticide maximum residue limit is a critical legislative basis for food safety and a key technical indicator to instruct food and agro-products. The establishing methods for MRLs not only influence the sustainable development of agricultural industry, but also play an actively role on the improvement of international competitiveness of Chinese agricultural industry. The current situation and principles employed to establish maximum residue limits were briefly introduced in this paper. The methods derived from field trials were summarized for setting MRLs. Meanwhile, the calculation methods proposed by European Union (EU), members of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Joint Meeting of Pesticide Residues (JMPR) were compared.

  7. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  8. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  9. A review on food safety and food hygiene studies in Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Ababio, P. F.; Lovatt, P.

    2015-01-01

    Food safety and hygiene in Ghana was studied using desk top literature review. Food research was highly concentrated in the capital city of the country and most research focus were on commercial food operations specifically street foods and microbiological safety with limited information from institutional catering and other forms of food hazards. The media currently serves as the main source for reporting of food borne diseases. Food establishments and other sources contributing to food born...

  10. Agriculture on the Brink: Climate Change, Labor and Smallholder Farming in Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William G. Moseley

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Botswana is a semi-arid, middle-income African country that imports 90 percent of its food. Despite its relative prosperity, Botswana also suffers from one of the highest measures of income inequality in the world, persistent poverty, and relatively high levels of food insecurity. The objective of this paper is to explore how political economy, climate change and livelihood dynamics are synergistically impacting household food security. The major finding is that the marginalization of smallholder farming in Botswana has as much or more to do with domestic, regional and international political economy as it does with climate change. As such, international efforts to support climate change adaptation in Botswana will have a limited effect on smallholder farming livelihoods and rural food security unless such efforts take account of political economic constraints. Effective support must be based on a grounded understanding of the real drivers of marginalization and food insecurity. One initiative that merits further exploration is the government’s backyard gardening initiative, which could be viewed as a pro-poor climate adaptation strategy. The findings of this paper are based on semi-structured interviews with policymakers and surveys with urban, peri-urban and rural households undertaken in 2012 and 2015.

  11. Energy security for India: Biofuels, energy efficiency and food productivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The emergence of biofuel as a renewable energy source offers opportunities for significant climate change mitigation and greater energy independence to many countries. At the same time, biofuel represents the possibility of substitution between energy and food. For developing countries like India, which imports over 75% of its crude oil, fossil fuels pose two risks—global warming pollution and long-term risk that oil prices will undermine real living standards. This paper examines India's options for managing energy price risk in three ways: biofuel development, energy efficiency promotion, and food productivity improvements. Our salient results suggest that biodiesel shows promise as a transport fuel substitute that can be produced in ways that fully utilize marginal agricultural resources and hence promote rural livelihoods. First-generation bioethanol, by contrast, appears to have a limited ability to offset the impacts of oil price hikes. Combining the biodiesel expansion policy with energy efficiency improvements and food productivity increases proved to be a more effective strategy to enhance both energy and food security, help mitigate climate change, and cushion the economy against oil price shocks. - Highlights: • We investigate the role of biofuels in India applying a CGE model. • Biodiesel enhances energy security and improve rural livelihoods. • Sugarcane ethanol does not show positive impact on the economy. • Biodiesel and energy efficiency improvements together provide better results. • Food productivity further enhances biodiesel, and energy efficiency impacts

  12. Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

    2012-02-15

    The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human

  13. 地形和气候对中国山地森林带界线的影响%Effect of Regional Topographic and Climatic Factors on Limits of Altitudinal Forest Belts

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙然好; 张百平

    2013-01-01

    The division of vegetation zones is an old and highly emphasized topic in both botany and geography. High mountains are characterized by different vegetation types at different elevations. Altitudinal vegetation belts are bounded by relatively narrow boundaries. Investigation and identification of altitudinal vegetation belts is significant in ecological and geographical studies due to extremely complex environment and diverse vegetation types in mountains. Altitudinal forest belts (AFBs) are significantly impacted by topographic and climatic factors. The climatic data used in this study were obtained from Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) between 1960 and 2000. After analyzing the significance of the 13 climatic factors in 31 base belts, we obtained three dominant principal components (PCs) designated as temperature variation index in winter (WTVI), temperature variation index in summer (STVI), and drought index (DI). WTVI decreased from South to North China, whereas STVI was high in South China and Tibetan Plateau. DI increased from the southwest to the northwest of China. Next, 28 AFB data were collected from published references. Multivari-ate regression analysis was used to quantify the relationship between AFB characteristics and topographic and climatic PCs. Results show that the base elevation of a mountain has the significant contribution to lower limits of AFBs (39.67%), whereas the relative elevation of a mountain has the significant contribution to upper limits of AFBs (39.34%). The climatic factors have similar contributions to variations in upper limits, lower limits, and width of AFBs. Among the three climatic PCs, STVI has the most contribution to variations of AFBs, followed by WTVI and DI. This paper quantifies the relative contributions of topographic and climatic factors to variations in AFBs at regional scales, and could potentially be used to evaluate and model the AFB distributions in other mountainous regions at regional or global

  14. Future Climate Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

  15. Phytoplankton and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moisan, John R.

    2009-01-01

    Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

  16. Food Allergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food allergy is an abnormal response to a food triggered by your body's immune system. In adults, the ... cause a severe reaction called anaphylaxis. Symptoms of food allergy include Itching or swelling in your mouth Vomiting, ...

  17. Food safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... different ways. Some food products may already contain bacteria or parasites. These germs can be spread during ... your hands have any cuts or sores, wear gloves suitable for handling food or avoid preparing food. ...

  18. Food Labels

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... How Can I Help a Friend Who Cuts? Food Labels KidsHealth > For Teens > Food Labels Print A ... have at least 95% organic ingredients. continue Making Food Labels Work for You The first step in ...

  19. 21 CFR 172.892 - Food starch-modified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2010-04-01 2009-04-01 true Food starch-modified. 172.892 Section 172.892 Food... Multipurpose Additives § 172.892 Food starch-modified. Food starch-modified as described in this section may be... limitation prescribed. To insure safe use of the food starch-modified, the label of the food...

  20. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...