WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate food limitation

  1. Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vrese, Philipp; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2018-04-01

    An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximizes the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing us to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. For three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), we show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only a few agricultural areas have to be abandoned owing to declines in productivity, while increasing temperatures allow for the expansion of croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated for by an expansion in regions that were previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when greenhouse gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even for the idealized scenarios investigated in this study.

  2. Trade-offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boysen, Lena R; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter

    2017-10-01

    Large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) are a common factor in climate mitigation scenarios as they promise double benefits: extracting carbon from the atmosphere and providing a renewable energy source. However, their terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potentials depend on important factors such as land availability, efficiency of capturing biomass-derived carbon and the timing of operation. Land availability is restricted by the demands of future food production depending on yield increases and population growth, by requirements for nature conservation and, with respect to climate mitigation, avoiding unfavourable albedo changes. We integrate these factors in one spatially explicit biogeochemical simulation framework to explore the tCDR opportunity space on land available after these constraints are taken into account, starting either in 2020 or 2050, and lasting until 2100. We find that assumed future needs for nature protection and food production strongly limit tCDR potentials. BPs on abandoned crop and pasture areas (~1,300 Mha in scenarios of either 8.0 billion people and yield gap reductions of 25% until 2020 or 9.5 billion people and yield gap reductions of 50% until 2050) could, theoretically, sequester ~100 GtC in land carbon stocks and biomass harvest by 2100. However, this potential would be ~80% lower if only cropland was available or ~50% lower if albedo decreases were considered as a factor restricting land availability. Converting instead natural forest, shrubland or grassland into BPs could result in much larger tCDR potentials ̶ but at high environmental costs (e.g. biodiversity loss). The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tCDR. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE. LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.

  4. Climate change and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, P.J; Ingram, J.S.I; Brklacich, M

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their

  5. Food irradiation, profits and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luna C, P.C.

    1992-05-01

    The utility of the irradiation to overcome diverse problems of lost nutritious, it has been demonstrated in multiple investigation works, that its have confirmed the value and the inoculation of the irradiated foods. The quantity of energy applied to each food, is in function of the wanted effect. In this document a guide with respect to the practical application and the utility of the irradiation process in different foods, as well as the suggested dose average is shown. Among the limitations of the use of this technology, its are the costs and not being able to apply it to some fresh foods. (Author)

  6. Food irradiation: advantages and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandes, N.K.; Vital, H. de C.; Sabaa-Srur, A.U.O.

    2003-01-01

    Food irradiation is a physical method of processing food (e.g. freezing, canning). It has been thoroughly researched over the last four decades and is recognized as a safe and wholesome method. It has the potential both of disinfesting dried food to reduce storage losses and disinfesting fruits and vegetables to meet quarantine requirements for export trade. Low doses of irradiation inhibit spoilage losses due to sprouting of root and tuber crops. Food- borne diseases due to contamination by pathogenic microorganisms and parasites of meat, poultry, fish, fishery products and spices are on the increase. Irradiation of these solid foods can decontaminate them of pathogenic organisms and thus provide safe food to the consumer. Irradiation can successfully replace the fumigation treatment of cocoa beans and coffee beans and disinfest dried fish, dates, dried fruits, etc. One of the most important advantages of food irradiation processing is that it is a coldprocess which does not significantly alter physico-chemical characters of the treated product. It can be applied to food after its final packaging. Similar to other physical processes of food processing, (e.g. canning, freezing), irradiation is a capital intensive process. Thus, adequate product volume must be made available in order to maximize the use of the facility and minimize the unit cost of treatment. Lack of harmonization of regulations among the countries which have approved irradiated foods hampers the introduction of this technique for international trade. Action at the international level has to be taken in order to remedy this situation. One of the important limitations of food irradiation processing is its slow acceptance by consumers, due inter alia to a perceived association with radioactivity. The food industry tends to be reluctant to use the technology in view of uncertainties regarding consumer acceptance of treated foods. Several market testing and consumer acceptance studies have been carried

  7. Weather, Climate and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  8. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  9. Will human populations be limited by food?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, S. G.

    2016-12-01

    Historical examples of demographic change, in China, Italy, Nigeria, Utah, the Philippines, and elsewhere, together with simple mathematics and biological principles, show that stabilizing world population before it is limited by food supply will be more difficult than is generally appreciated. United Nations population projections are based on a logical fallacy in that they assume, in spite of the absence of necessary negative feedbacks, that all nations will converge rapidly to replacement-level fertility and thereafter remain at that level. The benign projections that have resulted from this assumption may have hindered efforts to make availability of birth-control a priority in development-aid. Education of women and provision of contraceptives have caused dramatic reductions in fertility, but many groups, including some that are well-educated, maintain high fertility. Small groups with persistent high fertility can grow to supplant low-fertility groups, resulting in continued growth of the total population. The global average fertility rate could rise even if each country's fertility rate is falling. In some low-fertility European countries where deaths exceed births, the population continues to grow because of immigration. Producing more than two offspring is normal for all animal species with stable populations, because their populations are limited by resources or predation rather than birth control. It may therefore be appropriate to view the growth of human population as the result not of excess fertility but rather of excess food. Even if the fertility rate is maintained far in excess of 2, the population cannot grow if food is limiting. Without the agricultural advances of the 20thcentury, world population could not have grown as it did from 1.7 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000. The food supply may be enhanced in the future by genetic engineering and other innovations, but it may be limited by water shortage, climate change, pollution, and energy

  10. Climate-smart agriculture for food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipper, Leslie; Thornton, Philip; Campbell, Bruce M.; Baedeker, Tobias; Braimoh, Ademola; Bwalya, Martin; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Garrity, Dennis; Henry, Kevin; Hottle, Ryan; Jackson, Louise; Jarvis, Andrew; Kossam, Fred; Mann, Wendy; McCarthy, Nancy; Meybeck, Alexandre; Neufeldt, Henry; Remington, Tom; Sen, Pham Thi; Sessa, Reuben; Shula, Reynolds; Tibu, Austin; Torquebiau, Emmanuel F.

    2014-12-01

    Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change. Widespread changes in rainfall and temperature patterns threaten agricultural production and increase the vulnerability of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, which includes most of the world's poor. Climate change disrupts food markets, posing population-wide risks to food supply. Threats can be reduced by increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers as well as increasing resilience and resource use efficiency in agricultural production systems. CSA promotes coordinated actions by farmers, researchers, private sector, civil society and policymakers towards climate-resilient pathways through four main action areas: (1) building evidence; (2) increasing local institutional effectiveness; (3) fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and (4) linking climate and agricultural financing. CSA differs from 'business-as-usual' approaches by emphasizing the capacity to implement flexible, context-specific solutions, supported by innovative policy and financing actions.

  11. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  12. Foods to Avoid or Limit during Pregnancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Global Map Premature Birth Report Cards Careers Archives Pregnancy Before or between pregnancies Nutrition, weight & fitness Prenatal ... during pregnancy Foods to avoid or limit during pregnancy E-mail to a friend Please fill in ...

  13. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  14. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  15. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  16. Climate Change and Food-Related Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isidro Juan Mirón Pérez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are two principal concepts to take into account relating food and climate change: food security and food safety. Most papers linking climate change to food risks deal with the first one: the security of the food supply.The increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with the rise of the temperatures on a global level would theorically lead to greater yields of crops grown for human and animal consumption. Howevwe, most of these studies have shown that, in general, crop yields are decreasing as this global change also brings about an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In adition, these weather anomalies would be unevenly spread and affect developing countries, which are less capable of tackling this change, more severely. All these factors would result in greater uncertainty in the supply of food, which consequently would be less predictable and leave it more exposed to market speculation.A rise in average temperatures would be expected to increase the risk of proliferation of foodborne disease-causing microorganisms such as Salmonella or Campylobacter. Nevertheless, a trend of this sort has not been detected yet in developed countries, where information systems allow the temporal evolution of the occurrence of those diseases to be tracked, since means for food preservation and food controls are wide spread.

  17. Limiting values for radioactive materials in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steiner, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The contribution describes the fundamentals of radiation protection: LNT (linear, no threshold) hypotheses, ALARA (a slow as reasonably achievable), limiting values. Using the example the nuclear accident in Chernobyl the differences in contamination development in different foodstuffs in Germany is demonstrated including recommended limiting values and the radiation exposures after 30 years due to consumption of contaminated food. The natural radioactivity is about 0.3 mSv/year.

  18. Food security in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, Roger; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James

    2012-01-01

    By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.

  19. Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

    2018-05-01

    Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. An optimist's view on limiting necrotic enteritis and maintaining broiler gut health and performance in today's marketing, food safety, and regulatory climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofacre, Charles L; Smith, John A; Mathis, Greg F

    2018-06-01

    The future poultry nutritionist, veterinarian, and husbandryman will have many new regulatory requirements and consumer preferences to navigate in addition to their normal responsibility of raising birds in a cost-efficient and wholesome manner. New challenges include changes to antibiotic use, increased food safety regulations, and more concern over how birds are raised and how to dispose of poultry house waste. All of these new programs and new regulations will alter how we have been raising birds for the last 60 years since the inception of the integrated poultry industry. The most significant change may be the voluntary or regulatory withdrawal of the use of antibiotics in poultry production. In North America, this withdrawal of antibiotic use includes removal of in-ovo antibiotics, performance-improving antibiotics or antibiotic growth promotors (AGP), and the polyether ionophore antibiotics (ionophore anticoccidials).The removal of antibiotics in poultry production may result in welfare concerns due to elevated mortality and less efficient feed conversion, resulting in greater environmental impacts from increased manure production and more use of grain per unit of meat produced. There also may be concerns with greater intestinal disease in the birds resulting in increased numbers of foodborne illness-causing bacteria such as Salmonella sp. or Campylobacter sp. on the carcass. A major impact will be the disease necrotic enteritis (NE). This review will focus on the pathophysiology of NE, the management of the disease, and the additional effects on growth rate, feed efficiency, and body weight that may be associated with NE.

  1. A cross-country analysis of climate shocks and smallholder food insecurity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meredith T Niles

    Full Text Available Future climate changes will affect smallholder farmers in the developing world, posing threats to household food security. Nevertheless, there remains limited comparable evidence across multiple countries and regions regarding the global extent of climate shocks affecting smallholder food security. We examine data from 5,299 household surveys across 15 countries in Latin America, Africa and South Asia to assess the extent of climate shocks and their association with food insecurity, as well as what strategies may help buffer against climate shocks. We find that 71% of households reported experiencing a climate shock in the previous five years. Fifty-four percent reported experiencing food insecurity during one or more months annually. A multilevel statistical model estimated factors correlated with food insecurity as well as factors correlated with food insecurity among households that had experienced a climate shock. Households that reported experiencing a climate shock were 1.73 times more likely to be food insecure. As well, larger and poorer households were associated with higher odds of food insecurity while using pesticides, keeping large livestock, and being more educated are associated with lower odds of food insecurity. Among households that had experienced a climate shock, additional factors are correlated with lower odds of food insecurity when compared to otherwise similar households: use of fertilizers, pesticides, veterinary medicines, large livestock, and household assets. Together, these results demonstrate the extent of existing climate shocks affecting smallholder farmers and how interventions may potentially support adaptation and reduce food insecurity.

  2. A cross-country analysis of climate shocks and smallholder food insecurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niles, Meredith T; Salerno, Jonathan D

    2018-01-01

    Future climate changes will affect smallholder farmers in the developing world, posing threats to household food security. Nevertheless, there remains limited comparable evidence across multiple countries and regions regarding the global extent of climate shocks affecting smallholder food security. We examine data from 5,299 household surveys across 15 countries in Latin America, Africa and South Asia to assess the extent of climate shocks and their association with food insecurity, as well as what strategies may help buffer against climate shocks. We find that 71% of households reported experiencing a climate shock in the previous five years. Fifty-four percent reported experiencing food insecurity during one or more months annually. A multilevel statistical model estimated factors correlated with food insecurity as well as factors correlated with food insecurity among households that had experienced a climate shock. Households that reported experiencing a climate shock were 1.73 times more likely to be food insecure. As well, larger and poorer households were associated with higher odds of food insecurity while using pesticides, keeping large livestock, and being more educated are associated with lower odds of food insecurity. Among households that had experienced a climate shock, additional factors are correlated with lower odds of food insecurity when compared to otherwise similar households: use of fertilizers, pesticides, veterinary medicines, large livestock, and household assets. Together, these results demonstrate the extent of existing climate shocks affecting smallholder farmers and how interventions may potentially support adaptation and reduce food insecurity.

  3. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

  4. Climate Change Dynamics and Imperatives for Food Security in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olumide D. Onafeso

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Decadal variability in African rainfall is projected from General Circulation Models (GCMs to continue under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. Effects on rain intensity, spatio-temporal variability of growing seasons, flooding, drought, and land-use change impose feedbacks at regional-local scales. Yet, empirical knowledge of associated impacts on crop yield is limited; thus, we examined the imperatives for food security in Nigeria. Bivariate correlation and multiple regression suggests impending drought in the northern region where livestock farming is predominant. Relative contributions of climate independent variables in determining crop yield by backward selection procedures with stepwise approach indexed the impacts of annual climate variability by a parameter computed as annual yield minus mean annual yield divided by the standard deviation. Results show Z-distribution approximately 5 to + 5, when 3 indicate impacts significant at 95% confidence levels. In conclusion, we established the interwoven relationship between climatic change and food security.

  5. Ecosystem and Food Security in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2011-12-01

    Observed and projected impacts of climate change for ecosystem and food security tend to appear as changes in the risk of both desirable and undesirable outcomes. As a consequence, it is useful to frame the challenge of adaptation to a changing climate as a problem in risk management. For some kinds of impacts, the risks are relatively well characterized. For others, they are poorly known. Especially for the cases where the risks are poorly known, effective adaptation will need to consider approaches that build dynamic portfolios of options, based on learning from experience. Effective adaptation approaches also need to consider the risks of threshold-type responses, where opportunities for gradual adaptation based on learning may be limited. Finally, effective adaptation should build on the understanding that negative impacts on ecosystems and food security often result from extreme events, where a link to climate change may be unclear now and far into the future. Ecosystem and food security impacts that potentially require adaptation to a changing climate vary from region to region and interact strongly with actions not related to climate. In many ecosystems, climate change shifts the risk profile to increase risks of wildfire and biological invasions. Higher order risks from factors like pests and pathogens remain difficult to quantify. For food security, observational evidence highlights threshold-like behavior to high temperature in yields of a number of crops. But the risks to food security may be much broader, encompassing risks to availability of irrigation, degradation of topsoil, and challenges of storage and distribution. A risk management approach facilitates consideration of all these challenges with a unified framework.

  6. Climate Change and Food In/Security: A Critical Nexus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Saidul Islam

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The issue of climate change has been gaining widespread attention and concern as it has the ability to directly/indirectly affect our standard of living and quality of life. It has often been postulated that changes in climate would have a vast effect on food production systems and that food security might be threatened due to increasing climate change. However, it seems that research on climate change and food in/security has often been one-sided; with climate change being identified as the cause of food insecurity and not how the systems in place to ensure food security have exacerbated the issue of climate change. This paper thus seeks to give a more balanced view and thus understanding of the complex relationship between climate change and food security by critically examining both systems.

  7. Indoor climate optimization with limited resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, A.; Gunnarsen, Lars Bo

    This report presents experimental data and models for optimisation of the indoor climate parameters temperature, noise, draught and window opening. Results are based on experiments with human subjects performed in climate chambers at University of the Philippines. The report may assist building...... designers to balance attention and resources between the parameters of the indoor climate when resources are less than optimal....

  8. Perceived Effect of Climate Variation on Food Crop Production in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study objective is to determine the perception of food crop farmers in Oyo state to climate variation as it affects their production, because the relationship between climate variation and food security is direct and Oyo State has enormous potentials to make Nigeria food secure. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to ...

  9. Perception of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Food Security by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    This paper focuses on how men and women farmers perceive climatic variability in Idanre ... Poor women and their ... Climate Change, Food Security and Poverty ..... 50. 8.3. Total. 180. 100. Marital status. Single. Married. Divorced. Widowed.

  10. Food Security and Climate Change in Cambodia | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Food Security and Climate Change in Cambodia ... Eleven world-class research teams set to improve livestock vaccine development and production to benefit farmers across the ... Building resilience through socially equitable climate action.

  11. Policy Case Study – Food Labelling: Climate for Sustainable Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Cosbey, Aaron; Marcu, Andrei; Belis, David; Stoefs, Wijnand; Tuokko, Katja

    2015-01-01

    This study, which is part of the project entitled “Climate for Sustainable Growth“, focuses on one particular policy tool used in the agricultural sector, food labelling. It reviews food carbon labelling when put in place with clear objectives to address climate change. This study examines whether food carbon labels, as climate mitigation tools, are put in place in a sustainable way, by identifying their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainable development: 1) economic 2) social and ...

  12. Moral intensity and climate-friendly food choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkiniemi, Jaana-Piia; Vainio, Annukka

    2013-07-01

    By changing individual food consumption patterns, it might be possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with climate change. The aim of the current study was to examine how perceptions of the moral intensity of climate change are related to climate friendly-food choices. The participants were 350 Finnish university students in the social and behavioral sciences who completed a questionnaire during class. The results indicated that moral perceptions mainly affected the moral evaluation and intentions to make climate-friendly food choices. We suggest that the results can be used to promote climate-friendly food choices, for example, by increasing the recognition of climate change as a moral imperative and by combining environmental motives with other relevant food choice motives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Climate agreements under limited participation, asymmetric information and market imperfections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagem, Cathrine

    1996-12-31

    This thesis relates to climate agreements and cost efficiency by analysing the formation of a system of quota leading to distributed discharge of emissions between countries. Main fields concerned are the greenhouse effect, the political process, efficient and cost-effective climate agreements, and climate agreements under limited participation, asymmetric information and market imperfections covering fields like limited participation in climate agreements, limited participation and indirect impact on non-participating countries` emissions, limited participation and direct impact on non-participating countries` emissions under asymmetric information, and non-competitive market for tradeable quotas. 166 refs., 7 tabs.

  14. Climate limits across space and time on European forest structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, A. L. S.; Neumann, M.; Hasenauer, H.

    2017-12-01

    The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limitted by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole

  15. Climate change and food security in Tanzania: analysis of current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A review of literature was conducted in order to identify knowledge gaps in climate change and food security research in Tanzania. The review focused on published literature covering the past 20 years addressing climate change effects on various components of the food security. The review of literature reveals, among ...

  16. Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The past two decades have seen invigorated debates on the causal link between climate variability and food crop production. This study[1] extends the debate further by investigating how climate variability has affected the production of four specific food crops: maize, millet, rice, and groundnuts in north-eastern Ghana.

  17. Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

    2012-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and

  18. Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Walsh, Margaret; Hauser, Rachel; Murray, Anthony; Jadin, Jenna; Baklund, Peter; Robinson, Paula

    2013-01-01

    Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.

  19. Land Use Pattern, Climate Change, and Its Implication for Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While Ethiopia has always suffered from climatic variability like droughts and consequently food shortage and famine, climate change is set to make the lives of the poorest even harder. Climate change has the potential to adversely affect net farm revenues of small holders with increasing land fragmentation due to ...

  20. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan

    Climate change has a profound impact on agriculture and on food security. At the same time agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Fortunately there is also much to gain since the agricultural sector holds significant climate change mitigation potential through reductions

  1. Effect of Climate Change on the Food Supply System: Implications ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change has become an issue of great concern in recent years due to its effect on every aspect of life. The ecosystem, agriculture, industry, households and human well-being are all intertwined with climate change issues. The food supply system worldwide has been affected and is also contributing to climate ...

  2. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used...... as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across...

  3. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yator, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely

  4. Climate Change, Global Food Markets, and Urban Unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Francis Gavin 512-471-6267 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) Standard Form 298 (Rev 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 - Climate Change, Global Food...Russia led then-President Dmitry Medvedev to impose export restrictions on wheat, barley, and rye . Food security is fundamental to human security. Prior...how much food is grown and where it is grown. Second, climate change will increase the frequency of localized crop failures due to more frequent

  5. The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tshepo S. Masipa

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (insecurity. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

  6. Food and Sustainability Challenges Under Climate Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Khaled

    2016-12-01

    Plants are permanently impacted by their environments, and their abilities to tolerate multiple fluctuating environmental conditions vary as a function of several genetic and natural factors. Over the past decades, scientific innovations and applications of the knowledge derived from biotechnological investigations to agriculture caused a substantial increase of the yields of many crops. However, due to exacerbating effects of climate change and a growing human population, a crisis of malnutrition may arise in the upcoming decades in some places in the world. So, effective, ethical and managerial regulations and fair policies should be set up and applied at the local and global levels so that Earth may fairly provide the food and living accommodation needed by its inhabitants. To save some energy consumption, electric devices (for e.g., smartphones, laptops, street lights, traffic lights, etc.) should be manufactured to work with solar energy, whenever available, particularly in sunny countries where sun is available most of the time. Such characteristic will save energy and make solar energy-based smartphones and laptops less cumbersome in terms of chargers and plugging issues.

  7. Juvenile food limitation in standard tests: a warning to ecotoxicologists.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zimmer, E.I.; Jager, T.; Ducrot, V.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2012-01-01

    Standard ecotoxicological tests are as simple as possible and food sources are mainly chosen for practical reasons. Since some organisms change their food preferences during the life-cycle, they might be food limited at some stage if we do not account for such a switch. As organisms tend to respond

  8. Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

    2012-11-01

    In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

  9. Is Climate Change Shifting the Poleward Limit of Mangroves?

    KAUST Repository

    Hickey, Sharyn M.; Phinn, Stuart R.; Callow, Nik J.; Van Niel, Kimberly P.; Hansen, Jeff E.; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2017-01-01

    are migrating poleward at their biogeographical limits across the globe in line with climate change. A coupled systematic approach utilising literature and land surface and air temperature data was used to determine and validate the global poleward extent

  10. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Food systems in Tanzania are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability due to poor adaptive capacity of ... available GCMs and downscaling techniques ... water for hydroelectric power generation ... for farm-level decision making.

  11. Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ... those living in the Indus floodplains or on the edges of its deserts - received little attention. ... farmers' decision-making in water stressed regions, and the wider political and ...

  12. Food, Health and Climate Change Adaptation in Uganda | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... food security and human health in agriculture-based livelihood systems. ... in climate variability, and their direct and indirect impact on livelihood systems. ... of its 2017 call for proposals to establish Cyber Policy Centres in the Global South.

  13. Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

  14. Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

    2016-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

  15. Managing climatic risks for enhanced food security: Key information capabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balaghi, R.; Badjeck, M.C.; Bakari, D.; Pauw, de E.D.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Defourny, P.; Donato, S.; Gommes, R.; Jlibene, M.; Ravelo, A.C.; Sivakumar, M.V.K.; Telahigue, N.; Tychon, B.

    2010-01-01

    Food security is expected to face increasing challenges from climatic risks that are more and more exacerbated by climate change, especially in the developing world. This document lists some of the main capabilities that have been recently developed, especially in the area of operational

  16. Food security, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Taheripour, F.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.; Sahin, S.; Escurra, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper uses an advanced CGE model (Taheripour et al., 2013) coupled with hydrological projections of future water scarcity and biophysical data on likely crop yields under climate change to examine how water scarcity, climate change, and trade jointly alter land use changes across the Indian subcontinent. Climate shocks to rainfed and irrigated yields in 2030 are based on the p-DSSAT crop model, RCP 2.6, as reported under the AgMIP project (Rosenzweig et al., 2013), accessed through GEOSHARE (Villoria et al, 2014). Results show that, when water scarcity is ignored, irrigated areas grow in the wake of climate change as the returns to irrigation rise faster than for rainfed uses of land within a given agro-ecological zone. When non-agricultural competition for future water use, as well as anticipated supply side limitations are brought into play (Rosegrant et al., 2013), the opportunity cost of water rises across all river basins, with the increase ranging from 12% (Luni) to 44% (Brahmaputra). As a consequence, irrigated crop production is curtailed in most regions (Figure 1), with the largest reductions coming in the most water intensive crops, namely rice and wheat. By reducing irrigated area, which tends to have much higher yields, the combined effects of water scarcity and climate impacts require an increase in total cropped area, which rises by about 240,000 ha. The majority of this area expansion occurs in the Ganges, Indus, and Brahmari river basins. Overall crop output falls by about 2 billion, relative to the 2030 baseline, with imports rising by about 570 million. The combined effects of climate change and water scarcity for irrigation also have macro-economic consequences, resulting in a 0.28% reduction in GDP and an increase in the consumer price index by about 0.4% in 2030, compared the baseline. The national welfare impact on India amounts to roughly 3 billion (at 2007 prices) in 2030. Assuming a 3% social discount rate, the net present value of the

  17. Knowledge Mapping for Climate Change and Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C.; Höuser, Christoph; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Frechen, Tobias; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The authors extracted from the PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases all articles published between 1998 and 2009 that were relevant to climate change and food- and waterborne diseases. Any material within each article that provided information about a relevant pathogen and its relationship with climate and climate change was summarized as a key fact, entered into a relational knowledge base, and tagged with the terminology (predefined terms) used in the field. These terms were organized, quantified, and mapped according to predefined hierarchical categories. For noncholera Vibrio sp. and Cryptosporidium sp., data on climatic and environmental influences (52% and 49% of the total number of key facts, respectively) pertained to specific weather phenomena (as opposed to climate change phenomena) and environmental determinants, whereas information on the potential effects of food-related determinants that might be related to climate or climate change were virtually absent. This proportion was lower for the other pathogens studied (Campylobacter sp. 40%, Salmonella sp. 27%, Norovirus 25%, Listeria sp. 8%), but they all displayed a distinct concentration of information on general food-and water-related determinants or effects, albeit with little detail. Almost no information was available concerning the potential effects of changes in climatic variables on the pathogens evaluated, such as changes in air or water temperature, precipitation, humidity, UV radiation, wind, cloud coverage, sunshine hours, or seasonality. Frequency profiles revealed an abundance of data on weather and food-specific determinants, but also exposed extensive data deficiencies, particularly with regard to the potential effects of climate change on the pathogens evaluated. A reprioritization of public health research is warranted to ensure that funding is dedicated to explicitly studying the effects of changes in climate variables on food- and waterborne diseases. PMID:24771989

  18. Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

  19. Climate and Southern Africa's Water-Energy-Food Nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, D.; Osborn, T.; Dorling, S.; Ringler, C.; Lankford, B.; Dalin, C.; Thurlow, J.; Zhu, T.; Deryng, D.; Landman, W.; Archer van Garderen, E.; Krueger, T.; Lebek, K.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous challenges coalesce to make Southern Africa emblematic of the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus. Rainfall and river flows in the region show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate variability and change is high, for example, the contribution of electricity produced from hydroelectric sources is over 30% in Madagascar and Zimbabwe and almost 100% in the DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. The region's economy is closely linked with that of the rest of the African continent and climate-sensitive food products are an important item of trade. Southern Africa's population is concentrated in regions exposed to high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, and will increase rapidly over the next four decades. The capacity to manage the effects of climate variability tends, however, to be low. Moreover, with climate change annual precipitation levels, soil moisture and runoff are likely to decrease and rising temperatures will increase evaporative demand. Despite high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, the sectoral and cross-sectoral water-energy-food linkages with climate in Southern Africa have not been considered in detail. Lack of data and questionable reliability are compounded by complex dynamic relationships. We review the role of climate in Southern Africa's nexus, complemented by empirical analysis of national level data on climate, water resources, crop and energy production, and economic activity. Our aim is to examine the role of climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations in the nexus, and to improve understanding of the magnitude and temporal dimensions of their interactions. We first consider national level exposure of food, water and energy production to climate in aggregate economic terms and then examine the linkages between interannual and multi-year climate variability and economic activity, focusing on food and

  20. Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Hintermann, Beat; Higgins, Nathaniel

    2009-01-01

    West Africa is one of the most food insecure regions of the world. Sharply increased food and energy prices in 2008 brought the role of markets in food access and availability around the world into the spotlight, particularly in urban areas. The period of high prices had the immediate consequence of sharply increasing the number of hungry people in the region without boosting farmer incomes significantly. In this article, the interaction between markets, food prices, agricultural technology and development is explored in the context of West Africa. To improve food security in West Africa, sustained commitment to investment in the agriculture sector will be needed to provide some protection against global swings in both production and world markets. Climate change mitigation programs are likely to force global energy and commodity price increases in the coming decades, putting pressure on regions like West Africa to produce more food locally to ensure stability in food security for the most vulnerable.

  1. Food and water security in a changing arctic climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, Daniel M; Gerlach, S Craig; Loring, Philip; Tidwell, Amy C; Chambers, Molly C

    2007-01-01

    In the Arctic, permafrost extends up to 500 m below the ground surface, and it is generally just the top metre that thaws in summer. Lakes, rivers, and wetlands on the arctic landscape are normally not connected with groundwater in the same way that they are in temperate regions. When the surface is frozen in winter, only lakes deeper than 2 m and rivers with significant flow retain liquid water. Surface water is largely abundant in summer, when it serves as a breeding ground for fish, birds, and mammals. In winter, many mammals and birds are forced to migrate out of the Arctic. Fish must seek out lakes or rivers deep enough to provide good overwintering habitat. Humans in the Arctic rely on surface water in many ways. Surface water meets domestic needs such as drinking, cooking, and cleaning as well as subsistence and industrial demands. Indigenous communities depend on sea ice and waterways for transportation across the landscape and access to traditional country foods. The minerals, mining, and oil and gas industries also use large quantities of surface water during winter to build ice roads and maintain infrastructure. As demand for this limited, but heavily-relied-upon resource continues to increase, it is now more critical than ever to understand the impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic

  2. Climate smartness in agro-food standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingram, V.J.; Bezlepkina, I.; Verburg, R.W.

    2013-01-01

    This report contributes to the BO-10-020-003 project 'Aligning good agricultural practices and climate smart agriculture' commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and led by Plant Research International. The aim of this memorandum is to provide insight into the question who determines

  3. Agroforestry, climate change, and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Successfully addressing global climate change effects on agriculture will require a holistic, sustained approach incorporating a suite of strategies at multiple spatial scales and time horizons. In the USA of the 1930’s, bold and innovative leadership at high levels of government was needed to enact...

  4. Compliance of feed limits, does not mean compliance of food limits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raamsdonk, van L.W.D.; Eijkeren, van J.C.H.; Meijer, G.A.L.; Rennen, M.; Zeilmaker, M.J.; Hoogenboom, L.A.P.; Mengelers, M.J.B.

    2009-01-01

    The carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is an important aspect of the animal production chain. For a proper containment, limits for feed as well food products are fixed for a series of chemicals, e.g. dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs, lead, cadmium, some chlorinated pesticides,

  5. Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

  6. Forests in a water limited world under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Mátyás; G. Sun

    2014-01-01

    The debate on ecological and climatic benefits of planted forests at the sensitive dry edge of the closed forest belt (i.e. at the ‘xeric limits’) is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, accumulate biomass, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously...

  7. Biodiversity Hotspots, Climate Change, and Agricultural Development: Global Limits of Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, U. A.; Rasche, L.; Schmid, E.; Habel, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by climate and land management change. These changes result from complex and heterogeneous interactions of human activities and natural processes. Here, we study the potential change in pristine area in 33 global biodiversity hotspots within this century under four climate projections (representative concentration pathways) and associated population and income developments (shared socio-economic pathways). A coupled modelling framework computes the regional net expansion of crop and pasture lands as result of changes in food production and consumption. We use a biophysical crop simulation model to quantify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, water, and nutrient emissions for alternative crop management systems in more than 100 thousand agricultural land polygons (homogeneous response units) and for each climate projection. The crop simulation model depicts detailed soil, weather, and management information and operates with a daily time step. We use time series of livestock statistics to link livestock production to feed and pasture requirements. On the food consumption side, we estimate national demand shifts in all countries by processing population and income growth projections through econometrically estimated Engel curves. Finally, we use a global agricultural sector optimization model to quantify the net change in pristine area in all biodiversity hotspots under different adaptation options. These options include full-scale global implementation of i) crop yield maximizing management without additional irrigation, ii) crop yield maximizing management with additional irrigation, iii) food yield maximizing crop mix adjustments, iv) food supply maximizing trade flow adjustments, v) healthy diets, and vi) combinations of the individual options above. Results quantify the regional potentials and limits of major agricultural producer and consumer adaptation options for the preservation of pristine areas in

  8. Agricultural Innovations for Climate Change Adaptation and Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agricultural Innovations for Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security in Western and Central Africa. ... Results show that the most prominent adaptation measures in Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Liberia were; processing of crops to reduce post-harvest losses; increased weeding; mulching; increased manure application; ...

  9. Linkages among Key Actors in the Climate Change and Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sierra Leone and Liberia, but a low linkage index of less than 2 between farmers and policy making bodies for all the countries. Poor generation of innovations over the past ten years and poor domestic support for climate change adaptation and food security in the West African sub-region were identified. The study points to ...

  10. Climate Change and Variability: Implications for Household Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    These are drought, low annual rainfall, high temperature, and water shortage. The econometric model estimation result revealed the important factors determining household food security. These are household perception of climate change, use of soil and water conservation practices, use of livestock feed management ...

  11. Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change by Food Crop Farmers in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... constraints to farmers adaptation strategies. Inputs supply to the local farmers should also come with government subsidy. This will go a long way in alleviating the sufferings of the farmers, as regards inadequate supply and delivery of agricultural inputs. Key words: Adaptation, Strategies, Climate, Change, Food, Crop,

  12. Food Security and Climate Change in Cambodia | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Given the country's dependence on agriculture and natural resources, tackling climate change and food security together is essential. ... L'honorable Chrystia Freeland, ministre du Commerce international, a annoncé le lancement d'un nouveau projet financé par le Centre de recherches pour le développement international ...

  13. Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie A Harsch

    Full Text Available Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5 with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C, dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm. Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

  14. Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

    2014-01-01

    Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

  15. Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

    2014-01-01

    Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

  16. Functional food availability, a limitation to peoples’ health on Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Ndungu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Background:All foods are imported to markets in smaller islands in the Caribbean. Before export of foods to these destinations, the foods are subjected to several preservative procedures like irradiation, pesticide spray and prolonged refrigeration etc., to last the extended transport periods. This reduces availability of protective elements and the nutrient contents of the foods to scanty levels,especially to common people with low and middle incomes. Hence the majority of people in these categories on the small islands become vulnerable to ill health. Aims and Objectives: To assess 1. Food availability 2. Normal transport period for foods to reach from the suppliers, and 3. Current level of prevalence of non-infective chronic diseases in the area. Methods: Data were collected from two sources. One set of data was collected from the three supermarkets on the island to obtain information on source, transport time and nature of foods imported; and the second from 200 randomly selected responses of diseased persons for information on the age, gender and cause of death. Results: All the foods were imported and the time taken for the food (including protective foods to reach the island was about 3 weeks. The major causes of death were malignancy (30%, diabetes and its complications (25%, cardio vascular diseases (19.5%, STD / HIV (8.5% and other causes (17.0%. A review of prevalence of chronic diseases like hypertension, diabetes, heart diseases, arthritis and associated functional limitations, in the region reveals that their prevalence is proportionately high on the island compared to nearby developed mainland Functional Foods in Health and Disease 2011; 7:222-231 regions. Body mass index of ≥25 was reported to be as high as 58.3%. The health care facilitiesavailable are seen to be limited and public health activity to prevent or manage the prevailing chronic health issues, appeared to be meager. Conclusion: There is a need to address the

  17. Forests in a water limited world under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Sun, Ge

    2014-01-01

    The debate on ecological and climatic benefits of planted forests at the sensitive dry edge of the closed forest belt (i.e. at the ‘xeric limits’) is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, accumulate biomass, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously dominated by grassland or cropland can dramatically alter the energy and water balances at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts and growing extremes due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. We investigated some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of forests and potential impacts of climate change at the dryland margins of the temperate-continental zone using case studies from China, the United States and SE Europe (Hungary). We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effects of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of forestation on water resources might be negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events is likely to reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest management and forestation planning should be adjusted to the local, projected hydrologic and climatic conditions, and should also consider non-forest alternative land uses. (paper)

  18. Is Climate Change Shifting the Poleward Limit of Mangroves?

    KAUST Repository

    Hickey, Sharyn M.

    2017-02-01

    Ecological (poleward) regime shifts are a predicted response to climate change and have been well documented in terrestrial and more recently ocean species. Coastal zones are amongst the most susceptible ecosystems to the impacts of climate change, yet studies particularly focused on mangroves are lacking. Recent studies have highlighted the critical ecosystem services mangroves provide, yet there is a lack of data on temporal global population response. This study tests the notion that mangroves are migrating poleward at their biogeographical limits across the globe in line with climate change. A coupled systematic approach utilising literature and land surface and air temperature data was used to determine and validate the global poleward extent of the mangrove population. Our findings indicate that whilst temperature (land and air) have both increased across the analysed time periods, the data we located showed that mangroves were not consistently extending their latitudinal range across the globe. Mangroves, unlike other marine and terrestrial taxa, do not appear to be experiencing a poleward range expansion despite warming occurring at the present distributional limits. Understanding failure for mangroves to realise the global expansion facilitated by climate warming may require a focus on local constraints, including local anthropogenic pressures and impacts, oceanographic, hydrological, and topographical conditions.

  19. Ultra-processed foods and the limits of product reformulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scrinis, Gyorgy; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto

    2018-01-01

    The nutritional reformulation of processed food and beverage products has been promoted as an important means of addressing the nutritional imbalances in contemporary dietary patterns. The focus of most reformulation policies is the reduction in quantities of nutrients-to-limit - Na, free sugars, SFA, trans-fatty acids and total energy. The present commentary examines the limitations of what we refer to as 'nutrients-to-limit reformulation' policies and practices, particularly when applied to ultra-processed foods and drink products. Beyond these nutrients-to-limit, there are a range of other potentially harmful processed and industrially produced ingredients used in the production of ultra-processed products that are not usually removed during reformulation. The sources of nutrients-to-limit in these products may be replaced with other highly processed ingredients and additives, rather than with whole or minimally processed foods. Reformulation policies may also legitimise current levels of consumption of ultra-processed products in high-income countries and increased levels of consumption in emerging markets in the global South.

  20. Functional foods and urban agriculture: two responses to climate change-related food insecurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Jane M; Donati, Kelly J; Pike, Lucy L; Hattersley, Libby

    2009-01-01

    Affluent diets have negative effects on the health of the population and the environment. Moreover, the ability of industrialised agricultural ecosystems to continue to supply these diets is threatened by the anticipated consequences of climate change. By challenging the ongoing supply the diets of affluent countries, climate change provides a population and environmental health opportunity. This paper contrasts two strategies for dealing with climate change-related food insecurity. Functional foods are being positioned as one response because they are considered a hyper-efficient mechanism for supplying essential micronutrients. An alternative response is civic and urban agriculture. Rather than emphasising increased economic or nutritional efficiencies, civic agriculture presents a holistic approach to food security that is more directly connected to the economic, environmental and social factors that affect diet and health.

  1. Contributing to Food Security in the Context of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    Since the laboratories of the IAEA Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications were established in Seibersdorf in 1962, the world’s population has grown from 3.14 billion to 7.15 billion, which, combined with continuously increasing industrialization and economic development, has led to greater global food demand. This has placed substantial stress on natural resources as well as the agricultural production chain. The challenges to food safety and security have also been amplified by the impacts of climate change, which have global ramifications, as noted in the March 2014 report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change impacts include higher temperatures, drought, more frequent extreme weather events and increased soil salinity which can have severe effects on agricultural production. Helping Member States adapt to and mitigate these impacts is a main focus of the five laboratories of the Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture in Seibersdorf. These laboratories are dedicated to increasing food security and safety using nuclear science and technology

  2. Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Declan; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Deryng, Delphine; Dorling, Steve; Krueger, Tobias; Landman, Willem; Lankford, Bruce; Lebek, Karen; Osborn, Tim; Ringler, Claudia; Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Dalin, Carole

    2015-09-01

    In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven, for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and gross domestic product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose: the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water.

  3. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOOD SECTOR AND LIMITATIONS OF FOOD LOSSES AND ITS WASTE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beata Bilska

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Globally is wasted about one third of total food produced per year. The losses are borne along the entire food chain from “farm to fork”. The phenomenon requires an analysis and monitoring of the impact due to continuous development of food sector. Food losses and its waste have an impact on the sustainability of food systems in all three dimensions: economic, social and environmental. Irrational use of food beyond the amount of losses, is a threat to our environment because of excessive consumption of natural resources and is a causes of unmet nutritional needs of societies. The aim of the study was to determine the causes of losses and wastage in the food chain and categorization as well as taking into account recovery capabilities. As follows from the analysis presented in the work some of the reasons for food losses and waste are well known, possible limitations. Therefore, we should seek ways of recovering of food products and using them as intended. One way may be the transfer of food for social purposes, which also affects the sustainability of development in this sector due to social aspects.

  4. Limits to ambulatory displacement of coconut mites in absence and presence of food-related cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, J W S; Lima, D B; Sabelis, M W; Pallini, A; Gondim, M G C

    2014-04-01

    Ambulatory movement of plant-feeding mites sets limits to the distances they can cover to reach a new food source. In absence of food-related cues these limits are determined by survival, walking activity, walking path tortuosity and walking speed, whereas in presence of food the limits are also determined by the ability to orient and direct the path towards the food source location. For eriophyoid mites such limits are even more severe because they are among the smallest mites on earth, because they have only two pairs of legs and because they are very sensitive to desiccation. In this article we test how coconut mites (Aceria guerreronis Keifer) are constrained in their effective displacement by their ability to survive in absence of food (meristematic tissue under the coconut perianth) and by their ability to walk and orient in absence or presence of food-related cues. We found that the mean survival time decreased with increasing temperature and decreasing humidity. Under climatic conditions representative for the Tropics (27 °C and 75 % relative humidity) coconut mites survived on average for 11 h and covered 0.4 m, representing the effective linear displacement away from the origin. Within a period of 5 h, coconut mites collected from old fruits outside the perianth moved further away from the origin than mites collected under the perianth of young fruits. However, in the presence of food-related cues coconut mites traveled over 30 % larger distances than in absence of these cues. These results show that ambulatory movement of eriophyoid mites may well bring them to other coconuts within the same bunch and perhaps also to other bunches on the same coconut palm, but it is unlikely to help them move from palm to palm, given that palms usually do not touch each other.

  5. US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact

  6. Adaptation and mitigation options to manage aflatoxin contamination in food with a climate change perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wambui, J. M.; Karuri, E. G.; Ojiambo, J. A.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the impact of climate change remains vital for food safety and public health. Of particular importance is the influence of climatic conditions on the growth of Aspergillus flavus and production of their toxins. Nevertheless, little is known about the actual impact of climate change....... We used a systematic literature review of review and research articles, with limited searching but systematic screening to explore available qualitative and quantitative data. Projections from the data, showed that on average, a 58.9% increase of aflatoxin contamination in the Central and Western...... parts and a decrease of 44.6% in the Eastern and Southern parts is expected but with several possible scenarios. This makes the impact of climate change on aflatoxin contamination in Kenya complex. To protect the public and environment from the negative impact, a regulatory framework that allows...

  7. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong

    2007-01-01

    Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered

  8. Compliance of feed limits, does not mean compliance of food limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Raamsdonk LWD.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is an important aspect of the animal production chain. For a proper containment, limits for feed as well food products are fixed for a series of chemicals, e.g. dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs, lead, cadmium, some chlorinated pesticides, and aflatoxin B1 (and its metabolite M1 in milk. The relationship between feed and food limits is an important issue. An ideal goal is to assure that compliance to a feed limits automatically results in compliance to food limits. In order to collect information about this relationship, several simulation models and a large database on transfer factors have been developed. An optimal choice between either a model or an application of data from the Transfer Database is based on both the knowledge level, and on the circumstances of the specific situation. To reach and validate such an optimal choice an Expert System Carry-Over is currently in development, containing four different modules: 1 the different calculation models and the Transfer Database, 2 a decision tree for choosing the optimal strategy, 3 data tables indicating knowledge levels of compound/animal/product parameters, and 4 supporting databases containing information on consumption and composition of daily diets, animal parameters, and amounts of (daily production. Calculations indicate that for dioxins compliance to feed levels does not necessarily mean that food limits are complied as well. Besides an estimation of the compliance to limits, the expert system is a tool for feed related risk assessments, and for planning of future research.

  9. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.

    2015-01-01

    . However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming...... climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables...

  10. Do limiting factors at Alaskan treelines shift with climatic regimes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohse, B; Jansen, F; Wilmking, M

    2012-01-01

    Trees at Alaskan treelines are assumed to be limited by temperature and to expand upslope and/or to higher latitudes with global warming. However, recent studies describe negative temperature responses and drought stress of Alaskan treeline trees in recent decades. In this study, we have analyzed the responses of treeline white spruce to temperature and precipitation according to different climatic regimes in Alaska, described as negative (cool) and positive (warm) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We found that in three consecutive phases (positive from 1925–46, negative from 1947–76, and positive again from 1977–98), the growth responses to temperature and precipitation differed markedly. Before 1947, in a phase of warm winters and with summer temperatures being close to the century mean, the trees at most sites responded positively to summer temperature, as one would expect from treeline trees at northern high latitudes. Between 1947 and 1976, a phase of cold winters and average summers, the trees showed similar responses, but a new pattern of negative responses to the summer temperature of the year prior to growth coupled with positive responses to the precipitation in the same year emerged at some sites. As the precipitation was relatively low at those sites, we assume that drought stress might have played a role. However, the climate responses were not uniform but were modified by regional gradients (trees at northern sites responded more often to temperature than trees at southern sites) and local site conditions (forest trees responded more often to precipitation than treeline trees), possibly reflecting differences in energy and water balance across regions and sites, respectively. However, since the shift in the PDO in 1976 from a negative to a positive phase, the trees’ climate–growth responses are much less pronounced and climate seems to have lost its importance as a limiting factor for the growth of treeline white spruce. If

  11. Agriculture in the climate change negotiations; ensuring that food production is not threatened.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muldowney, J; Mounsey, J; Kinsella, L

    2013-06-01

    With the human population predicted to reach nine billion by 2050, demand for food is predicted to more than double over this time period, a trend which will lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Furthermore, expansion in food production is predicted to occur primarily in the developing world, where adaptation to climate change may be more difficult and opportunities to mitigate emissions limited. In the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 'ensuring that food production is not threatened' is explicitly mentioned in the objective of the Convention. However, the focus of negotiations under the Convention has largely been on reducing GHG emissions from energy, and industrial activities and realizing the potential of forestry as a carbon sink. There has been little attention by the UNFCCC to address the challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector. Since 2006, concerted efforts have been made to raise the prominence of agriculture within the negotiations. The most recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and 'The Emissions Gap Report' by the UNEP highlighted the significant mitigation potential of agriculture, which can help contribute towards keeping global temperature rises below the 2°C limit agreed in Cancun. Agriculture has to be a part of the solution to address climate change, but this will also require a focus on how agriculture systems can adapt to climate change in order to continue to increase food output. However, to effectively realize this potential, systematic and dedicated discussion and decisions within the UNFCCC are needed. UNFCCC discussions on a specific agriculture agenda item started in 2012, but are currently inconclusive. However, Parties are generally in agreement on the importance of agriculture in contributing to food security and employment as well as the need to improve understanding of agriculture and how it can contribute to

  12. Monitoring of antimicrobial resistance among food animals: Principles and limitations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarestrup, Frank Møller

    2004-01-01

    Large amounts of antimicrobial agents are in the production of food animals used for therapy and prophylactics of bacterial infections and in feed to promote growth. The use of antimicrobial agents causes problems in the therapy of infections through the selection for resistance among bacteria...... pathogenic for animals or humans. Current knowledge regarding the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in food animals, the quantitative impact of the use of different antimicrobial agents on selection for resistance and the most appropriate treatment regimes to limit the development of resistance......, there are major differences between programmes designed to detect changes in a national population, individual herds or groups of animals. In addition, programmes have to be designed differently according to whether the aim is to determine changes in resistance for all antimicrobial agents or only...

  13. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

    2016-01-01

    Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  14. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Takemoto

    Full Text Available Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming, whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  15. Climate change and its effect on world food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, W.O.

    1974-01-01

    In February of 1972 earth-orbiting artificial satellites revealed the existence of a greatly increased area of the snow and ice cover of the north polar cap as compared to all previous years of space age observations. Some scientists believe that this may have presaged the onset of the dramatic climate anomalies of 1972 that brought far-reaching adversities to the world's peoples. Moreover, there is mounting evidence that the bad climate of 1972 may be the forerunner of a long series of less favorable agricultural crop years that lie ahead for most world societies. Thus widespread food shortages threaten just at the same time that world populations are growing to new highs. Indeed, less favorable climate may be the new global norm. The Earth may have entered a new 'little ice age'. Perhaps this future period will not be so extreme as that around 1700 AD, but it seems likely, at least, to be a cooler period resembling the hemispheric climatic regimes of the period from 1880-1920. (author)

  16. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  17. Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Annan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the identifiability of the climate by limited proxy data. We test a data assimilation approach through perfect model pseudoproxy experiments, using a simple likelihood-based weighting based on the particle filtering process. Our experimental set-up enables us to create a massive 10 000-member ensemble at modest computational cost, thus enabling us to generate statistically robust results. We find that the method works well when data are sparse and imprecise, but in this case the reconstruction has a rather low accuracy as indicated by residual RMS errors. Conversely, when data are relatively plentiful and accurate, the estimate tracks the target closely, at least when considering the hemispheric mean. However, in this case, our prior ensemble size of 10 000 appears to be inadequate to correctly represent the true posterior, and the regional performance is poor. Using correlations to assess performance gives a more encouraging picture, with significant correlations ranging from about 0.3 when data are sparse to values over 0.7 when data are plentiful, but the residual RMS errors are substantial in all cases. Our results imply that caution is required in interpreting climate reconstructions, especially when considering the regional scale, as skill on this basis is markedly lower than on the large scale of hemispheric mean temperature.

  18. Geospatial climate monitoring products: Tools for food security assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, James Patrick

    Many of the 250 million people living in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa are food insecure---they lack access at all times to enough food for an active and healthy life. Their vulnerability is due in large measure to highly variable climatic conditions and a dependence on rainfed agriculture. Famine, the most extreme food security emergency, is caused by crop failure due to bad weather, conflict, or both. Famine is a slow onset disaster, culminating after two or more bad growing seasons. After the disastrous African famines of the 1970s and 1980s, the U.S. established the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) to make the observations of climatic and socioeconomic variables needed for early detection of food security emergencies. Two geospatial climate monitoring products, rainfall estimate and vegetation index images derived from satellite data, are operationally used by FEWS analysts. This dissertation describes research to derive new products from them to reduce ambiguity and improve the link between early warning and early response. First, rainfall estimate images were used in a geospatial crop water accounting scheme. The resulting water requirement satisfaction index was used to estimate crop yield, and a correlation of 0.80 with conventional yield reports was obtained for the 1997 maize harvest in Zimbabwe. Thus, the agricultural significance of remotely sensed patterns of precipitation in time and space was made more clear. The second product tested was the expression of a seasonal climate forecast as a series of vegetation index anomaly images. Correlations between sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and vegetation index anomalies in Southern Africa were established and predictive relationships cross-validated. Using model forecast values of Pacific sea surface temperature from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for January, February, and March, forecast images of vegetation index anomalies were prepared prior to the

  19. Evaluation of Limiting Climatic Factors and Simulation of a Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Li

    Full Text Available Chinese sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis has considerable economic potential and plays an important role in reclamation and soil and water conservation. For scientific cultivation of this species across China, we identified the key climatic factors and explored climatically suitable habitat in order to maximize survival of Chinese sea buckthorn using MaxEnt and GIS tools, based on 98 occurrence records from herbarium and publications and 13 climatic factors from Bioclim, Holdridge life zone and Kria' index variables. Our simulation showed that the MaxEnt model performance was significantly better than random, with an average test AUC value of 0.93 with 10-fold cross validation. A jackknife test and the regularized gain change, which were applied to the training algorithm, showed that precipitation of the driest month (PDM, annual precipitation (AP, coldness index (CI and annual range of temperature (ART were the most influential climatic factors in limiting the distribution of Chinese sea buckthorn, which explained 70.1% of the variation. The predicted map showed that the core of climatically suitable habitat was distributed from the southwest to northwest of Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, where the most influential climate variables were PDM of 1.0-7.0 mm, AP of 344.0-1089.0 mm, CI of -47.7-0.0°C, and ART of 26.1-45.0°C. We conclude that the distribution patterns of Chinese sea buckthorn are related to the northwest winter monsoon, the southwest summer monsoon and the southeast summer monsoon systems in China.

  20. The role of grasslands in food security and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Mara, F P

    2012-11-01

    Grasslands are a major part of the global ecosystem, covering 37 % of the earth's terrestrial area. For a variety of reasons, mostly related to overgrazing and the resulting problems of soil erosion and weed encroachment, many of the world's natural grasslands are in poor condition and showing signs of degradation. This review examines their contribution to global food supply and to combating climate change. Grasslands make a significant contribution to food security through providing part of the feed requirements of ruminants used for meat and milk production. Globally, this is more important in food energy terms than pig meat and poultry meat. Grasslands are considered to have the potential to play a key role in greenhouse gas mitigation, particularly in terms of global carbon storage and further carbon sequestration. It is estimated that grazing land management and pasture improvement (e.g. through managing grazing intensity, improved productivity, etc) have a global technical mitigation potential of almost 1·5 Gt CO(2) equivalent in 2030, with additional mitigation possible from restoration of degraded lands. Milk and meat production from grassland systems in temperate regions has similar emissions of carbon dioxide per kilogram of product as mixed farming systems in temperate regions, and, if carbon sinks in grasslands are taken into account, grassland-based production systems can be as efficient as high-input systems from a greenhouse gas perspective. Grasslands are important for global food supply, contributing to ruminant milk and meat production. Extra food will need to come from the world's existing agricultural land base (including grasslands) as the total area of agricultural land has remained static since 1991. Ruminants are efficient converters of grass into humanly edible energy and protein and grassland-based food production can produce food with a comparable carbon footprint as mixed systems. Grasslands are a very important store of carbon, and

  1. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  2. Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

  3. Yesterday's dinner, tomorrow's weather, today's news? US newspaper coverage of food system contributions to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neff, Roni A; Chan, Iris L; Smith, Katherine Clegg

    2009-07-01

    There is strong evidence that what we eat and how it is produced affects climate change. The present paper examines coverage of food system contributions to climate change in top US newspapers. Using a sample of sixteen leading US newspapers from September 2005 to January 2008, two coders identified 'food and climate change' and 'climate change' articles based on specified criteria. Analyses examined variation across time and newspaper, the level of content relevant to food systems' contributions to climate change, and how such content was framed. There were 4582 'climate change' articles in these newspapers during this period. Of these, 2.4% mentioned food or agriculture contributions, with 0.4% coded as substantially focused on the issue and 0.5% mentioning food animal contributions. The level of content on food contributions to climate change increased across time. Articles initially addressed the issue primarily in individual terms, expanding to address business and government responsibility more in later articles. US newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change during the study period increased, but still did not reflect the increasingly solid evidence of the importance of these effects. Increased coverage may lead to responses by individuals, industry and government. Based on co-benefits with nutritional public health messages and climate change's food security threats, the public health nutrition community has an important role to play in elaborating and disseminating information about food and climate change for the US media.

  4. The role for scientists in tackling food insecurity and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beddington John R

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract To adapt to climate change and ensure food security, major interventions are required to transform current patterns and practices of food production, distribution and consumption. The scientific community has an essential role to play in informing concurrent, strategic investments to establish climate-resilient agricultural production systems, minimize greenhouse gas emissions, make efficient use of resources, develop low-waste supply chains, ensure adequate nutrition, encourage healthy eating choices and develop a global knowledge system for sustainability. This paper outlines scientific contributions that will be essential to the seven policy recommendations for achieving food security in the context of climate change put forward by the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change. These include improved understanding of agriculture’s vulnerability to climate change, food price dynamics, food waste and consumption patterns and monitoring technologies as well as multidisciplinary investigation of regionally appropriate responses to climate change and food security challenges.

  5. [Brazilian guidelines for marketing baby food: history, limitations and perspectives].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, Renata

    2006-05-01

    The objective of this paper is to present and discuss Brazilian policy concerning actions to protect breastfeeding, especially the history, international and national background, limitations, and perspectives of the Brazilian Guidelines for the Marketing of Baby Food, Pacifiers and Bottles. The Brazilian Guidelines, which play a crucial role in protecting breastfeeding against industry marketing strategies, were based on the International Code of Marketing of Breastmilk Substitutes, proposed by the World Health Organization in 1981. The first version of the Brazilian Guidelines was released in 1988, and there were subsequent revisions in 1992 and 2001/2002. In 2006, the Guidelines became national law. However, the strides made over this period in terms of regulation have been few because the law is not always observed. Thus, it is essential that all actors involved, including government officials, manufacturers and sellers of baby food and other baby products, teaching and health professionals and their associations, international bodies, and non-governmental organizations make a commitment to enforce the current law.

  6. Limits to Ambulatory Displacement of Coconut Mites in Absence and Presence of Food-Related Cues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melo, J.W.S.; Lima, D.B.; Sabelis, M.W.; Pallini, A.; Gondim Jr., M.G.C.

    2014-01-01

    Ambulatory movement of plant-feeding mites sets limits to the distances they can cover to reach a new food source. In absence of food-related cues these limits are determined by survival, walking activity, walking path tortuosity and walking speed, whereas in presence of food the limits are also

  7. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  8. How the climate limits the wood density of angiosperms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jin Woo; Kim, Ho-Young

    2017-11-01

    Flowering trees have various types of wood structure to perform multiple functions under their environmental conditions. In addition to transporting water from the roots to the canopy and providing mechanical support, the structure should provide resistance to embolism to maintain soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. By investigating existing data of the resistivity to embolism and wood density of 165 angiosperm species, here we show that the climate can limit the intrinsic properties of trees. Trees living in the dry environments require a high wood density to slow down the pressure decrease as it loses water relatively fast by evaporation. However, building too much tissues will result in the decrease of hydraulic conductivity and moisture concentration around mesophyll cells. To rationalize the biologically observed lower bound of the wood density, we construct a mechanical model to predict the wood density as a function of the vulnerability to embolism and the time for the recovery. Also, we build an artificial system using hydrogel microchannels that can test the probability of embolism as a function of conduit distributions. Our theoretical prediction is shown to be consistent with the results obtained from the artificial system and the biological data.

  9. Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

  10. America's Climate Choices: Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, A.; Fri, R.; Brown, M.; Geller, L.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a study on strategies for limiting the magnitude of future climate change (i.e. mitigation). Limiting climate change is a global effort that will require significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by countries around the world. U.S. action alone is not sufficient, but it is clearly necessary for the U.S. to make significant contributions to the global effort. While efforts to limit climate change are already underway across the U.S. (by state and local governments, businesses, non-governmental organizations, and individual households), we currently lack a framework of federal policies to help assure that all key actors participating and working towards coherent national goals. This study recommends a U.S. policy goal stated as a budget for cumulative greenhouse gas emissions through the year 2050, and offers an illustrative range of budget numbers derived from recent work of the Energy Modeling Forum. The report evaluates the types of changes to our nation's energy system that are needed to meet a budget in the proposed range, which leads to a conclusion that the U.S. must get started now in aggressively pursuing available emission reduction opportunities, while also investing heavily in R&D to create new emission reduction opportunities. The study offers a series of recommendations for how to move ahead in pursing these near-term and longer-term opportunities. The recommendations address the need for a carbon pricing system and strategically-targeted complimentary policies, for effective international engagement, for careful balancing of federal with state/local action, and for consideration of equity and employment impacts of response policies. The study also discusses the need to design policies that are both durable over the

  11. Foreign Assistance: North Korean Constraints Limit Food Aid Monitoring

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nelson, Benjamin

    1999-01-01

    .... However, the North Korean government has not allowed the World Food Program to fully implement its procedures and, as a result, it cannot be sure that the food aid is being shipped, stored, or used as planned...

  12. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  13. Regional Farm Diversity Can Reduce Vulnerability of Food Production to Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.A.

    2008-01-01

    Food production must adapt in the face of climate change. In Europe, projected vulnerability of food production to climate change is particularly high in Mediterranean regions. Increasing agricultural diversity has been suggested as an adaptation strategy, but empirical evidence is lacking. We

  14. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of spatiotemporal maize-area dynamics across the northern limit for maize production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2011-01-01

    It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here, we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial...... regression modeling with multi-model averaging to assess the extent to which the recent spatiotemporal dynamics of the maize area in Denmark are driven by climate (temperature as represented by maize heating units [MHU] and growing-season precipitation), climate change and non-climatic factors (cattle...... cultivation and cattle farming, probably reflecting a change to a more favorable climate for maize cultivation: in the beginning of the study period, northern areas were mostly too cold for maize cultivation, irrespective of cattle density, but this limitation has been diminishing as climate has warmed...

  15. Availability of limited service food outlets surrounding schools in British Columbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Jennifer L; Day, Meghan

    2012-06-05

    The purpose of this study was to provide a descriptive profile of the availability of limited service food outlets surrounding public schools in British Columbia, Canada. Data from the 2010 Canadian Business Data Files were used to identify limited service food outlets including fast food outlets, beverage and snack food stores, delis and convenience stores. The number of food outlets within 800 metres of 1,392 public schools and the distance from schools to the nearest food outlets were assessed. Multivariate regression models examined the associations between food outlet availability and school-level characteristics. In 2010, over half of the public schools in BC (54%) were located within a 10-12 minute walk from at least one limited service food outlet. The median closest distance to a food outlet was just over 1 km (1016 m). Schools comprised of students living in densely populated urban neighbourhoods and neighbourhoods characterized by lower socio-economic status were more likely to have access to limited service food outlets within walking distance. After adjusting for school-level median family income and population density, larger schools had higher odds of exposure to food vendors compared to schools with fewer students. The availability of and proximity to limited service food outlets vary widely across schools in British Columbia and school-level characteristics are significantly associated with food outlet availability. Additional research is needed to understand how food environment exposures inside and surrounding schools impact students' attitudes, food choices and dietary quality.

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security and Poverty Reduction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamic interactions between bio-geophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of foods, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability, utilization and access, so that food security is diminished when ...

  17. The estimation of annual limit on intake for tritiated food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komatsu, Kenshi; Okumura, Yutaka

    1992-01-01

    Tritium incorporation into tissues and DNA of mice was studied after daily ingestion of tritiated food or tritiated water. The tritiated food used was a commercial preparation mixed with brine shrimp which had been reared in tritiated sea water. After ingestion of tritiated food or water for up to 22 d, the specific activity of tritium in tissues was measured as tissue-free-water tritium, tissue-bound tritium and DNA-bound tritium. In order to compare the tritium intake from food with that from water, 14 C-glucose was added to food and drinking water. The specific activity of tritium of tissues obtained was then corrected by the specific activity of 14 C in tissues in order to analyse the tritium incorporation from the same amount of ingested food and water. DNA-bound tritium after the ingestion of tritiated food was 4.6 times higher than that of tritiated water, while tissue-bound tritium was 2.2 times higher. The radiation dose to liver from tritium incorporated through food was two-fold higher than through tritiated water, which was mainly due to the high incorporation of tritium into DNA. Our results demonstrated that the dose calculation based on tissue-free-water tritium alone would underestimate the radiation exposure of the human population exposed to tritiated food. (author)

  18. Sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply. Political and legal challenges of the 21th century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haertel, Ines

    2014-01-01

    The book on sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply as political challenges in the 21th century includes contributions on the following topics: sustainability and environment, energy and climatic change, agriculture and world food supply.

  19. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  20. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki

    2013-01-01

    attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years(2......Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports(1) and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased...

  1. Soil fertility shapes belowground food webs across a regional climate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laliberté, Etienne; Kardol, Paul; Didham, Raphael K; Teste, François P; Turner, Benjamin L; Wardle, David A

    2017-10-01

    Changes in soil fertility during pedogenesis affect the quantity and quality of resources entering the belowground subsystem. Climate governs pedogenesis, yet how climate modulates responses of soil food webs to soil ageing remains unexplored because of the paucity of appropriate model systems. We characterised soil food webs along each of four retrogressive soil chronosequences situated across a strong regional climate gradient to show that belowground communities are predominantly shaped by changes in fertility rather than climate. Basal consumers showed hump-shaped responses to soil ageing, which were propagated to higher-order consumers. There was a shift in dominance from bacterial to fungal energy channels with increasing soil age, while the root energy channel was most important in intermediate-aged soils. Our study highlights the overarching importance of soil fertility in regulating soil food webs, and indicates that belowground food webs will respond more strongly to shifts in soil resources than climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  2. On the Vulnerability of Water Limited Ecosystems to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly K. Caylor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Society is facing growing environmental problems that require new research efforts to understand the way ecosystems operate and survive, and their mutual relationships with the hydrologic cycle. In this respect, ecohydrology suggests a renewed interdisciplinary approach that aims to provide a better comprehension of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems. With this aim, a coupled hydrological/ecological model is adopted to describe simultaneously vegetation pattern evolution and hydrological water budget at the basin scale using as test site the Upper Rio Salado basin (Sevilleta, NM, USA. The hydrological analyses have been carried out using a recently formulated framework for the water balance at the daily level linked with a spatial model for the description of the spatial organization of vegetation. This enables quantitatively assessing the effects on soil water availability on future climatic scenarios. Results highlighted that the relationship between climatic forcing (water availability and vegetation patterns is strongly non-linear. This implies, under some specific conditions which depend on the ecosystem characteristics, small changes in climatic conditions may produce significant transformation of the vegetation patterns.

  3. Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the

  4. Life-history variation of a neotropical thrush challenges food limitation theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, V.; Llambias, P.E.; Martin, T.E.

    2005-01-01

    Since David Lack first proposed that birds rear as many young as they can nourish, food limitation has been accepted as the primary explanation for variation in clutch size and other life-history traits in birds. The importance of food limitation in life-history variation, however, was recently questioned on theoretical grounds. Here, we show that clutch size differences between two populations of a neotropical thrush were contrary to expectations under Lack's food limitation hypothesis. Larger clutch sizes were found in a population with higher nestling starvation rate (i.e. greater food limitation). We experimentally equalized clutches between populations to verify this difference in food limitation. Our experiment confirmed greater food limitation in the population with larger mean clutch size. In addition, incubation bout length and nestling growth rate were also contrary to predictions of food limitation theory. Our results demonstrate the inability of food limitation to explain differences in several life-history traits: clutch size, incubation behaviour, parental feeding rate and nestling growth rate. These life-history traits were better explained by inter-population differences in nest predation rates. Food limitation may be less important to life history evolution in birds than suggested by traditional theory. ?? 2005 The Royal Society.

  5. Urban adaptation planning: the use and limits of climate science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodman, David; Carmin, Joann

    2011-11-15

    Cities face a mounting challenge from climate change. In developed and developing countries alike, rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, higher sea levels, and more frequent and severe extreme events such as droughts and floods threaten to overwhelm urban infrastructure, services and management systems. City officials recognise the need to adapt to climate change, and use scientific evidence to support their plans for doing so. But the precise details of these changes and the local impacts they will have cannot be predicted. Decision makers must learn to draw on scientific data while simultaneously managing the uncertainty inherent in future projections. Across the world, forward-looking city officials are proving themselves to be 'urban adaptation leaders' — mobilising political and public support for and devising flexible approaches to adaptation.

  6. Managing Agricultural Soils of Pakistan for Food and Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rattan Lal

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan; a predominantly arid land region; has a large, growing, urbanizing and increasingly affluent population. Soil and water resources are finite, with per capita arable land area of 0.10 ha by 2050, and prone to degradation by inappropriate management, harsh environments and changing climate. Nonetheless, agriculture productivity increased strongly between 1960 and 2016. Whereas, the population of Pakistan increased by a factor of 4.5 between 1960 and 2018 (from 45 to 201 million, total cereal grain production increased by a factor of 6.5 (from 6.6 to 43.0 million ton. Despite the impressive gains in agricultural production since the Green Revolution era, there is no cause for complacency because even greater challenges lie ahead. Total food production may have to be doubled between 2015 and 2050 because of the growth in population along with rapidly urbanizing and increasingly affluent lifestyle. The national agronomic crop yield (2.8 Mg/ha for wheat, 3.8 Mg/ha for rice, and 4.6 Mg/ha for maize may have to be increased drastically, and that too in a changing and uncertain climate. Important among the challenges are the growing incidence of drought stress and heatwave, and increasing risks of soil degradation and desertification. Further, soil resources must also be managed to advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs of the UN; achieve Land Degradation Neutrality proposed by the UNCCD; implement the “4 per Thousand” program of soil carbon sequestration initiated at COP21 in Paris in 2015; and fulfil the aspirations of better lifestyle for the people of Pakistan. The strategy is to restore degraded soils and desertified ecosystems through sustainable intensification. The goal is to produce more from less by reducing losses (i.e., water, nutrients, soil and enhancing eco-efficiency of inputs (i.e., fertilizer, irrigation water, energy. Vertical increase in agronomic yield, by restoring soil health and adopting best management

  7. Cyclodextrins in Food Technology and Human Nutrition: Benefits and Limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenyvesi, É; Vikmon, M; Szente, L

    2016-09-09

    Cyclodextrins are tasteless, odorless, nondigestible, noncaloric, noncariogenic saccharides, which reduce the digestion of carbohydrates and lipids. They have low glycemic index and decrease the glycemic index of the food. They are either non- or only partly digestible by the enzymes of the human gastrointestinal (GI) tract and fermented by the gut microflora. Based on these properties, cyclodextrins are dietary fibers useful for controlling the body weight and blood lipid profile. They are prebiotics, improve the intestinal microflora by selective proliferation of bifidobacteria. These antiobesity and anti-diabetic effects make them bioactive food supplements and nutraceuticals. In this review, these features are evaluated for α-, β- and γ-cyclodextrins, which are the cyclodextrin variants approved by authorities for food applications. The mechanisms behind these effects are reviewed together with the applications as solubilizers, stabilizers of dietary lipids, such as unsaturated fatty acids, phytosterols, vitamins, flavonoids, carotenoids and other nutraceuticals. The recent applications of cyclodextrins for reducing unwanted components, such as trans-fats, allergens, mycotoxins, acrylamides, bitter compounds, as well as in smart active packaging of foods are also overviewed.

  8. Shallow bedrock limits groundwater seepage-based headwater climate refugia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Martin A.; Lane, John W.; Snyder, Craig D.; White, Eric A.; Johnson, Zachary; Nelms, David L.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater/surface-water exchanges in streams are inexorably linked to adjacent aquifer dynamics. As surface-water temperatures continue to increase with climate warming, refugia created by groundwater connectivity is expected to enable cold water fish species to survive. The shallow alluvial aquifers that source groundwater seepage to headwater streams, however, may also be sensitive to seasonal and long-term air temperature dynamics. Depth to bedrock can directly influence shallow aquifer flow and thermal sensitivity, but is typically ill-defined along the stream corridor in steep mountain catchments. We employ rapid, cost-effective passive seismic measurements to evaluate the variable thickness of the shallow colluvial and alluvial aquifer sediments along a headwater stream supporting cold water-dependent brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Shenandoah National Park, VA, USA. Using a mean depth to bedrock of 2.6 m, numerical models predicted strong sensitivity of shallow aquifer temperature to the downward propagation of surface heat. The annual temperature dynamics (annual signal amplitude attenuation and phase shift) of potential seepage sourced from the shallow modeled aquifer were compared to several years of paired observed stream and air temperature records. Annual stream water temperature patterns were found to lag local air temperature by ∼8–19 d along the stream corridor, indicating that thermal exchange between the stream and shallow groundwater is spatially variable. Locations with greater annual signal phase lag were also associated with locally increased amplitude attenuation, further suggestion of year-round buffering of channel water temperature by groundwater seepage. Numerical models of shallow groundwater temperature that incorporate regional expected climate warming trends indicate that the summer cooling capacity of this groundwater seepage will be reduced over time, and lower-elevation stream sections may no longer serve as larger

  9. Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline A Curtis

    Full Text Available Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the 'plant characteristics' information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN, and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001. The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts' knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for

  10. Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

  11. The economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chuen Khee, Pek; Yet Mee, Lim; Chee Keong, Choong

    2011-01-01

    This study estimates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia. The contingent valuation technique is employed on 456 randomly selected households in the vicinities of Selangor Darul Ehsan. The study finds that climate change mitigation programmes to ensure food security are important. The public is willing to pay extra rice price in substitution of a rice subsidy reduction impact for the mitigation programmes. More specifically, the study ascertains that households o...

  12. The Roles of Seaweed on Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Product

    OpenAIRE

    A. Niarthiningsih; Wahyudin, Elly

    2013-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of the potential role of seaweed in reducing global warming and climate change, contributing to food security and producing natural products. The role of seaweed on controlling climate change is through reducing carbon dioxide and converting seaweed into the bio fuel. The use of bio-fuel could reduce the traditional hydrocarbon as energy that produces carbon emission. Fresh and processed seaweed are commonly used as a food. This may contribute significantly to ...

  13. Climate alters intraspecific variation in copepod effect traits through pond food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charette, Cristina; Derry, Alison M

    2016-05-01

    Essential fatty acids (EFAs) are primarily generated by phytoplankton in aquatic ecosystems, and can limit the growth, development, and reproduction of higher consumers. Among the most critical of the EFAs are highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFAs), which are only produced by certain groups of phytoplankton. Changing environmental conditions can alter phytoplankton community and fatty acid composition and affect the HUFA content of higher trophic levels. Almost no research has addressed intraspecific variation in HUFAs in zooplankton, nor intraspecific relationships of HUFAs with body size and fecundity. This is despite that intraspecific variation in HUFAs can exceed interspecific variation and that intraspecific trait variation in body size and fecundity is increasingly recognized to have an important role in food web ecology (effect traits). Our study addressed the relative influences of abiotic selection and food web effects associated with climate change on intraspecific differences and interrelationships between HUFA content, body size, and fecundity of freshwater copepods. We applied structural equation modeling and regression analyses to intraspecific variation in a dominant calanoid copepod, Leptodiatomus minutus, among a series of shallow north-temperate ponds. Climate-driven diurnal temperature fluctuations favored the coexistence of diversity of phytoplankton groups with different temperature optima and nutritive quality. This resulted in unexpected positive relationships between temperature, copepod DHA content and body size. Temperature correlated positively with diatom biovolume, and mediated relationships between copepod HUFA content and body size, and between copepod body size and fecundity. The presence of brook trout further accentuated these positive effects in warm ponds, likely through nutrient cycling and stimulation of phytoplankton resources. Climate change may have previously unrecognized positive effects on freshwater copepod DHA content

  14. Effects of climate on size structure and functioning of aquatic food webs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lacerot, G.

    2010-01-01

    In aquatic food webs, the role of body size is notoriously strong. It is also well known that temperature has an effect on body size. For instance, Bergmann’s rule states that body size increases from warm to cold climates. This thesis addresses the question how climate shapes the size structure of

  15. Effects of climate change on food safety hazards in the dairy production chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiegel, van der M.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Marvin, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of climate change on emerging food safety hazards in the dairy production chain. For this purpose, a holistic approach was used to select critical factors from inside and outside the production chain that are affected by climatic factors. An expert

  16. Linking human health, climate change, and food security through ecological-based sanitation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryals, R.; Kramer, S.; Porder, S.; Andersen, G. L.

    2015-12-01

    Ensuring access to clean, safe sanitation for the world's population remains a challenging, yet critical, global sustainability goal. Ecological-based sanitation (EcoSan) technology is a promising strategy for improving sanitation, particularly in areas where financial resources and infrastructure are limiting. The composting of human waste and its use as an agricultural soil amendment can tackle three important challenges in developing countries - providing improved sanitation for vulnerable communities, reducing the spread of intestinal-born pathogens, and returning nutrients and organic matter to degraded agricultural soils. The extent of these benefits and potential tradeoffs are not well known, but have important implications for the widespread adoption of this strategy to promote healthy communities and enhance food security. We quantified the effects of EcoSan on the climate and human health in partnership with Sustainable Organic Integrated Livelihoods (SOIL) in Haiti. We measured greenhouse gas emissions (nitrous oxide, methane, and carbon dioxide) from compost piles that ranged in age from 0 to 14 months (i.e. finished) from two compost facilities managed with or without cement lining. We also measured emissions from a government-operated waste treatment pond and a grass field where waste has been illegally dumped. The highest methane emissions were observed from the anaerobic waste pond, whereas the dump site and compost piles had higher nitrous oxide emissions. Net greenhouse gases (CO2-equivalents) from unlined compost piles were 8x lower than lined compost piles and 20 and 30x lower than the dump and waste pond, respectively. We screened finished compost for fecal pathogens using bacterial 16S sequencing. Bacterial pathogens were eliminated regardless of the type of composting process. Pilot trials indicate that the application of compost to crops has a large potential for increasing food production. This research suggests that EcoSan systems are

  17. Low Simulated Radiation Limit for Runaway Greenhouse Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldblatt, Colin; Robinson, Tyler D.; Zahnle, Kevin J.; Crisp, David

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial planet atmospheres must be in long-term radiation balance, with solar radiation absorbed matched by thermal radiation emitted. For hot moist atmospheres, however, there is an upper limit on the thermal emission which is decoupled from the surface temperature. If net absorbed solar radiation exceeds this limit the planet will heat uncontrollably, the so-called \\runaway greenhouse". Here we show that a runaway greenhouse induced steam atmosphere may be a stable state for a planet with the same amount of incident solar radiation as Earth has today, contrary to previous results. We have calculated the clear-sky radiation limits at line-by-line spectral resolution for the first time. The thermal radiation limit is lower than previously reported (282 W/sq m rather than 310W/sq m) and much more solar radiation would be absorbed (294W/sq m rather than 222W/sq m). Avoiding a runaway greenhouse under the present solar constant requires that the atmosphere is subsaturated with water, and that cloud albedo forcing exceeds cloud greenhouse forcing. Greenhouse warming could in theory trigger a runaway greenhouse but palaeoclimate comparisons suggest that foreseeable increases in greenhouse gases will be insufficient to do this.

  18. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria | Osuafor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is brought about by natural as well as man-made factors. Climate change or global warming has negative impact on the global environment. Some of these devastating effects include volcano, landslide, erosion, flooding, drought, pests and diseases. These factors in turn impact on agriculture and ...

  19. Functional limitation and chronic diseases are associated with food insecurity among U.S. adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venci, Brittany J; Lee, Seung-Yeon

    2018-03-01

    This study examined associations of functional limitation due to any health problems and six chronic diseases (arthritis, diabetes, coronary heart disease, heart attack, hypertension, and stroke) with food security among U.S. adults. The 2011 National Health Interview Survey data for 30,010 adults (≥18 years) were used. Adults were categorized into food secure, low food secure, or very low food secure. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to estimate adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for having functional limitation and chronic diseases while adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. The prevalence of functional limitation and the chronic diseases were higher in low-food-secure and very low-food-secure than food-secure adults. The adjusted ORs were significant in both low food secure and very low food secure, respectively, for functional limitation (OR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.63, 2.14), (OR: 2.20; 95% CI: 1.91, 2.52), inflammatory diseases or joint/muscular pain (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.68), (OR: 1.74; 95% CI: 1.49, 2.04), diabetes (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.51), (OR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.48), and hypertension (OR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.35), (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.22, 1.65) when compared with food-secure adults. Findings indicate that food insecurity is associated with functional limitation and chronic diseases, whereas directionality is unknown. Besides the traditional food assistance program for food-insecure populations, interventions to prevent or manage chronic diseases may be necessary to help them reduce the risk of the diseases and manage their conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. How phosphorus limitation can control climatic gas sources and sinks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gypens, Nathalie; Borges, Alberto V.; Ghyoot, Caroline

    2017-04-01

    Since the 1950's, anthropogenic activities severely increased river nutrient loads in European coastal areas. Subsequent implementation of nutrient reduction policies have considerably reduced phosphorus (P) loads from mid-1980's, while nitrogen (N) loads were maintained, inducing a P limitation of phytoplankton growth in many eutrophied coastal areas such as the Southern Bight of the North Sea (SBNS). When dissolved inorganic phosphorous (DIP) is limiting, most phytoplankton organisms are able to indirectly acquire P from dissolved organic P (DOP). We investigate the impact of DOP use on the importance of phytoplankton production and atmospheric fluxes of CO2 and dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the SBNS from 1951 to 2007 using an extended version of the R-MIRO-BIOGAS model. This model includes a description of the ability of phytoplankton organisms to use DOP as a source of P. Results show that primary production can increase up to 70% due to DOP uptake in limiting DIP conditions. Consequently, simulated DMS emissions double while CO2 emissions to the atmosphere decrease, relative to the reference simulation without DOP uptake. At the end of the simulated period (late 2000's), the net direction of air-sea CO2 annual flux, changed from a source to a sink for atmospheric CO2 in response to use of DOP and increase of primary production.

  1. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeulen, S.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor, A.J.; Hansen, J.W.

    2012-01-01

    Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture's mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.

  2. Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R

    2017-12-05

    This review examined the likely impact of climate change upon food-borne disease in the UK using Campylobacter and Salmonella as example organisms. Campylobacter is an important food-borne disease and an increasing public health threat. There is a reasonable evidence base that the environment and weather play a role in its transmission to humans. However, uncertainty as to the precise mechanisms through which weather affects disease, make it difficult to assess the likely impact of climate change. There are strong positive associations between Salmonella cases and ambient temperature, and a clear understanding of the mechanisms behind this. However, because the incidence of Salmonella disease is declining in the UK, any climate change increases are likely to be small. For both Salmonella and Campylobacter the disease incidence is greatest in older adults and young children. There are many pathways through which climate change may affect food but only a few of these have been rigorously examined. This provides a high degree of uncertainty as to what the impacts of climate change will be. Food is highly controlled at the National and EU level. This provides the UK with resilience to climate change as well as potential to adapt to its consequences but it is unknown whether these are sufficient in the context of a changing climate.

  3. FOOD QUALITY AND SAFETY ASSURANCE IN TERMS OF LOSS AND WASTE LIMITATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Śmiechowska

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges of 21st century is satisfying the food needs of the fast growing population of the world. Food must fulfill quality and safety standards.  The access to safe and appropriate food is not the same everywhere.  Food excess and, in consequence, food waste is present in many regions of the world. This study is meant to explain the causes of food waste on the basis of the author’s own research and study results of other scientists. The lack of authenticity and falsification belong to the new factors endangering food safety and food waste related thereto. This analysis proves that the authenticity of food improves its safety through the implementation of quality management systems, the appropriate system of food labelling and food identification by means of applicable law regulations, supervision and control systems. Main aim of this study is to address why, even though there are so many quality standards and systems, a significant problem with food loss and waste constantly occurs. Waste-causing factors have been determined on the example of bread and the handling of unconsumed bread has been attempted in this study. Waste limiting actions are necessary as food production is significantly overburdening the natural environment and generating increasing amount of waste, hazardous to the clean air. 

  4. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ESSENTIAL ANNUAL CROP PRODUCTION. A VIEW FROM FOOD SECURITY IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS MÉNDEZ NOTARI

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This research has the objective of analyzing whether the public policies that today define the rules for productive development in agriculture can mitigate the effects related to global warming and if these are sufficient to prevent the pressing of climate change over the difficulties already existing in the agricultural sector or, to prevent the emergence of new risk factors or threats that affect the country’s food security. It also seeks to propose some recommendations for the design of public policies to minimize the risks and threats related to the adaptation of agricultural production to climate change and, therefore, to ensure physical, social and economic access to sufficient food and nutritious foods that meet the needs of the national population and mitigate its effects on the multidimensional sphere of the security. In this sense, we try to answer the following question: What challenges does climate change pose to Chilean agriculture in terms of food security?

  5. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  6. Reducing risks to food security from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campbell, Bruce Morgan; Vermeulen, Sonja Joy; Aggarwal, Pramod

    2016-01-01

    , with very little attention paid to more systems components of cropping, let alone other dimensions of food security. Given the serious threats to food security, attention should shift to an action-oriented research agenda, where we see four key challenges: (a) changing the culture of research; (b) deriving...

  7. Climate Change and Food Security: the role of Biotechnology

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Robert M. Yawson

    2012-08-05

    Aug 5, 2012 ... rainfall patterns and outbreak of pests and diseases negatively affect ... Potential effects of changes in climate on crop yields have been assessed by ... supply programs, and the capacity of emerging technologies to deal with ...

  8. Limits to preference and the sensitivity of choice to rate and amount of food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aparicio, Carlos F; Baum, William M; Hughes, Christine E; Pitts, Raymond C

    2016-03-01

    Studies of choice holding food-amount ratio constant while varying food-rate ratio within sessions showed that local changes in preference depend on relative amount of food. The present study investigated whether sensitivity of choice to food-rate ratio and sensitivity to food-amount ratio are independent of one another when food-rate ratios are varied across sessions and food-amount ratios are varied within sessions. Food deliveries for rats' presses on the left and right levers were scheduled according to three different food-rate ratios of 1:1, 9:1, and 1:9; each food-rate ratio lasted for 106 sessions and was arranged independently of seven food-amount ratios (7:1, 6:2, 5:3, 4:4, 3:5, 2:6, and 1:7 food pellets) occurring within sessions in random sequence. Each amount ratio lasted for 10 food deliveries and was separated from another by a 60-s blackout. Sensitivity to rate ratio was high (1.0) across food deliveries. Sensitivity to amount ratio was low when food rates were equal across alternatives, but was high when rate ratio and amount ratio opposed one another. When rate ratio and amount ratio went in the same direction, choice ratio reached an elevenfold limit which reduced sensitivity to approximately zero. We conclude that three factors affect sensitivity to amount: (1) the limit to preference, (2) the equal effect on preference of amounts greater than four pellets, and (3) the absence of differential effects of switches in amount in the equal-rates (1:1) condition. Taken together, these findings indicate that rate and amount only sometimes combine independently as additive variables to determine preference when amount ratios vary frequently within sessions. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  9. Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, W.; Cramer, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Battaglini, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2011-01-01

    Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of

  10. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-10-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

  11. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaitlin T Raimi

    Full Text Available To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

  12. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raimi, Kaitlin T; Stern, Paul C; Maki, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

  13. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.; Maki, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people—especially political conservatives—to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed. PMID:28135337

  14. A Practical Guide for Estimating Dietary Fat and Fiber Using Limited Food Frequency Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neale, Anne Victoria; And Others

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for estimating daily intake of dietary fat and fiber based on limited food frequency data. The procedure, which relies on National Food Consumption Survey data and daily consumption rates, can provide baseline estimates of dietary patterns for health promotion policymakers. (SLD)

  15. Limiting trans Fats in Foods: Use of Partially Hydrogenated Vegetable Oils in Prepacked Foods in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hribar, Maša; Pivk Kupirovič, Urška; Žmitek, Katja

    2018-01-01

    Consumption of industrially produced trans-fatty acids (TFAs) is a well-established health risk factor that correlates with the increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease. The recommended TFA intake is as low as possible, within the context of a nutritionally adequate diet. Different countries have introduced different measures to minimize the exposure of their population to TFAs. Previous data have shown that TFA content has significantly decreased in Western European countries, while this was not the case in many Central-Eastern European countries, including Slovenia. In the absence of regulatory requirements, a number of awareness campaigns were launched in Slovenia since 2015, with the common goal of lowering the use of partially hydrogenated oils (PHO), which are considered a major source of TFAs. To determine if this goal had been reached, we performed an assessment of the exposure of the population to prepacked foods containing PHOs in years 2015 and 2017. Altogether, data on the composition of 22,629 prepacked foods was collected from food labels, using a specifically developed smartphone application. Furthermore, the food categories with the most frequent use of PHOs were identified. The proportion of PHO-containing products was determined for each specific food category, and adjusted with the market share data. The results showed that in 2015, vegetable cream substitutes, soups, and biscuits were the categories with the highest penetration of declared PHO content. In 2017, the proportion of products with PHO decreased considerably. In vegetable cream substitutes the percentage of PHO containing items dropped from 30 down to 4%, in soups it decreased from 21 to 5%, in biscuits from 17 to 8%, and in crisps and snacks from 10 to 4%. However, PHO content remained notable among cakes, muffins, pastries, and biscuits. We can conclude that the voluntary guidelines and regular public communication of the risks related to the TFA consumption has had a

  16. Barriers to climate-friendly food choices among young adults in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkiniemi, Jaana-Piia; Vainio, Annukka

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the study was to examine how young adults in Finland perceive barriers to climate-friendly food choices and how these barriers are associated with their choices. The participants were 350 university students of the social and behavioral sciences who completed a questionnaire during class. The study found that the barriers the participants perceived as being the most relevant were different from those that were associated with the omission of climate-friendly food choices. High prices were perceived as the most relevant barrier, but were only weakly associated with the participants' food choices. Instead, habit and disbelief in the effects of food consumption on the climate were found to be the barriers that had the greatest association with climate-friendly choices. Moreover, women considered high prices and poor supply more important compared to men, whereas men considered disbelief and habit more important. In addition, vegetarians perceived fewer barriers than those who followed other diets. The findings increase our understanding of young adults' perceptions of barriers to climate-friendly food choices, as well as their effects. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Geophysical Tools, Challenges and Perspectives Related to Natural Hazards, Climate Change and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fucugauchi, J. U.

    2013-05-01

    In the coming decades a changing climate and natural hazards will likely increase the vulnerability of agricultural and other food production infrastructures, posing increasing treats to industrialized and developing economies. While food security concerns affect us globally, the huge differences among countries in stocks, population size, poverty levels, economy, technologic development, transportation, health care systems and basic infrastructure will pose a much larger burden on populations in the developing and less developed world. In these economies, increase in the magnitude, duration and frequency of droughts, floods, hurricanes, rising sea levels, heat waves, thunderstorms, freezing events and other phenomena will pose severe costs on the population. For this presentation, we concentrate on a geophysical perspective of the problems, tools available, challenges and short and long-term perspectives. In many instances, a range of natural hazards are considered as unforeseen catastrophes, which suddenly affect without warning, resulting in major losses. Although the forecasting capacity in the different situations arising from climate change and natural hazards is still limited, there are a range of tools available to assess scenarios and forecast models for developing and implementing better mitigation strategies and prevention programs. Earth observation systems, geophysical instrumental networks, satellite observatories, improved understanding of phenomena, expanded global and regional databases, geographic information systems, higher capacity for computer modeling, numerical simulations, etc provide a scientific-technical framework for developing strategies. Hazard prevention and mitigation programs will result in high costs globally, however major costs and challenges concentrate on the less developed economies already affected by poverty, famines, health problems, social inequalities, poor infrastructure, low life expectancy, high population growth

  18. Food irradiation, profits and limitations; Irradiacion de alimentos, beneficios y limitaciones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luna C, P C

    1992-05-15

    The utility of the irradiation to overcome diverse problems of lost nutritious, it has been demonstrated in multiple investigation works, that its have confirmed the value and the inoculation of the irradiated foods. The quantity of energy applied to each food, is in function of the wanted effect. In this document a guide with respect to the practical application and the utility of the irradiation process in different foods, as well as the suggested dose average is shown. Among the limitations of the use of this technology, its are the costs and not being able to apply it to some fresh foods. (Author)

  19. Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    They are integrated and balance the ... implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production; that help maintain ecosystems ... other forms of life, the manner in which human beings respond to climate variability is critical not ..... work for longer hours and at the same time its effect on their health.

  20. Perception of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Food Security by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    47% of the respondents perceived climatic variability as delayed in rainfall, 22% perceived it as high temperature, 6% says it is flood, 3% sees it as unusual rainfall while 22% perceived it as undefined season. Although both gender do not have the same adaptive capacity, women (100%) are more vulnerable to the impact ...

  1. Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Semenov, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, SEP (2015), s. 3-5 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Crop production Upscaling * Climate change impact and adaptation assessments * Upscaling * Model ensembles Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

  2. Limiting trans Fats in Foods: Use of Partially Hydrogenated Vegetable Oils in Prepacked Foods in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Zupanič

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Consumption of industrially produced trans-fatty acids (TFAs is a well-established health risk factor that correlates with the increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease. The recommended TFA intake is as low as possible, within the context of a nutritionally adequate diet. Different countries have introduced different measures to minimize the exposure of their population to TFAs. Previous data have shown that TFA content has significantly decreased in Western European countries, while this was not the case in many Central-Eastern European countries, including Slovenia. In the absence of regulatory requirements, a number of awareness campaigns were launched in Slovenia since 2015, with the common goal of lowering the use of partially hydrogenated oils (PHO, which are considered a major source of TFAs. To determine if this goal had been reached, we performed an assessment of the exposure of the population to prepacked foods containing PHOs in years 2015 and 2017. Altogether, data on the composition of 22,629 prepacked foods was collected from food labels, using a specifically developed smartphone application. Furthermore, the food categories with the most frequent use of PHOs were identified. The proportion of PHO-containing products was determined for each specific food category, and adjusted with the market share data. The results showed that in 2015, vegetable cream substitutes, soups, and biscuits were the categories with the highest penetration of declared PHO content. In 2017, the proportion of products with PHO decreased considerably. In vegetable cream substitutes the percentage of PHO containing items dropped from 30 down to 4%, in soups it decreased from 21 to 5%, in biscuits from 17 to 8%, and in crisps and snacks from 10 to 4%. However, PHO content remained notable among cakes, muffins, pastries, and biscuits. We can conclude that the voluntary guidelines and regular public communication of the risks related to the TFA

  3. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niiranen, S.; Yletyinen, J.; Tomczak, M.T.

    2013-01-01

    approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional...... biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future......Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed...

  4. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Adger, W Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  5. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louisa S Evans

    Full Text Available Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  6. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

    2016-05-07

    One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to

  7. Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commons”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawad Taleb Al-Bakri

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of climate change and land use change on water resources and food security in Jordan. The country is dominated by arid climate with limited arable land and water resources, where the per capita share of water is less than 145 m3/year. The study focused on crop production and water resources under trends of anticipated climate change and population growth in the country. Remote sensing data were used to determine land use/cover changes and rates of urbanization, which took place at the cost of the cultivable land. Recession of irrigated areas led to lesser food production and food security. Outputs from crop production and water requirements models, in addition to regression analysis, were used to estimate the projected increase in agricultural water demand under the scenarios of increased air temperature and reduced rainfall by the years 2030 and 2050. Results indicated that problems of water scarcity and food insecurity would be exacerbated by climate change and increased population growth. To move from the tragedy of the commons towards transcendence, the study emphasized the need for adaptive measures to reduce the impacts of climate change on water resources and food security. The challenge, however, would remain the development and the efficient use of new water resources as a means for future sustainable development.

  8. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  9. Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to climate change involves private and public investment decisions in the face of climate and policy uncertainties. The authors present a framework for analysis of adaptation as an investment, based on elements of the economics, finance, and ecological economics literatures. They use this framework to assess critically impact and adaptation studies, and discuss how research could be designed to support public and private investment decisions. They t...

  10. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Buhaug, Halvard; Benjaminsen, Tor A; Sjaastad, Espen Olav; Theisen, Ole Magnus

    2015-01-01

    Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect...

  11. Proposed food and drug administration protection action guides for human food and animal feed: Rationale and limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shleien, B.; Schmidt, G.D.; Chiacchierini, R.P.

    1978-01-01

    The Food and Drug Administration is proposing Protective Action Guides (PAG's) to be used in the event that a radiological incident results in the radioactive contamination of human food and animal feed. PAG's are proposed for two levels of response: (1) PREVENTIVE PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should take protective action to prevent or reduce the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed. (2) EMERGENCY PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should isolate food containing radioactivity to prevent its introduction into commerce and determine whether condemnation or another disposition is appropriate. Derived response levels, which are defined as the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed corresponding to the above PAG's, are proposed for radionuclides of most significance. The presentation will discuss the supporting rationale as well as the numerical limits for the PAG's. This rationale is based on the process of risk assessment and cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis. The risk assessment compares the risk of radiation exposure to the risk from prevalent hazards accepted by society and from variability of the natural radiation environment. The cost-benefit analysis is limited to protective actions efficacious in the reduction of iodine-131 dose to the thyroid via the milk pathway (condemnation and use of stored feed). In addition, the metabolic and agricultural transfer models that were used to calculate derived response levels will be described briefly. (author)

  12. Proposed food and drug administration protection action guides for human food and animal feed: Rationale and limits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shleien, B; Schmidt, G D; Chiacchierini, R P [Food and Drug Administration, Bureau of Radiological Health, Rockville, MD (United States)

    1978-12-01

    The Food and Drug Administration is proposing Protective Action Guides (PAG's) to be used in the event that a radiological incident results in the radioactive contamination of human food and animal feed. PAG's are proposed for two levels of response: (1) PREVENTIVE PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should take protective action to prevent or reduce the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed. (2) EMERGENCY PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should isolate food containing radioactivity to prevent its introduction into commerce and determine whether condemnation or another disposition is appropriate. Derived response levels, which are defined as the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed corresponding to the above PAG's, are proposed for radionuclides of most significance. The presentation will discuss the supporting rationale as well as the numerical limits for the PAG's. This rationale is based on the process of risk assessment and cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis. The risk assessment compares the risk of radiation exposure to the risk from prevalent hazards accepted by society and from variability of the natural radiation environment. The cost-benefit analysis is limited to protective actions efficacious in the reduction of iodine-131 dose to the thyroid via the milk pathway (condemnation and use of stored feed). In addition, the metabolic and agricultural transfer models that were used to calculate derived response levels will be described briefly. (author)

  13. Climate Induced Food Insecurity, Coping Strategies and Practices ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Close examination and analysis of household food security and its responses is very important not only from the economic point of view but also because of its high ... Some of the responses included out-migration of household members, diversification of income, multiple cropping, involvement in local/indigenous social ...

  14. Climate Induced Food Insecurity, Coping Strategies and Practices ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Close examination and analysis of household food security and its responses is very important not only from the economic point of view but also because of its high ... Some of the responses include out-migration of household members, diversification of income, multiple cropping, and involvement in local/indigenous social ...

  15. Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2014-07-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.

  16. Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Water Scarcity—Physical Limits, Sectoral Constraints, and Policy Imperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher A. Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life-cycle impacts of thermoelectric generation and biofuel production, and freshwater availability and sectoral allocations from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. Emerging, energy-related water scarcity flashpoints include the world’s largest, most diversified economies (Brazil, India, China, and USA among others, while physical water scarcity continues to pose limits to energy development in the Middle East and small-island states. Findings include the following: (a technological obstacles to alleviate water scarcity driven by energy demand are surmountable; (b resource conservation is inevitable, driven by financial limitations and efficiency gains; and (c institutional arrangements play a pivotal role in the virtuous water-energy-climate cycle. We conclude by making reference to coupled energy-water policy alternatives including water-conserving energy portfolios, intersectoral water transfers, virtual water for energy, hydropower tradeoffs, and use of impaired waters for energy development.

  17. Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

    2017-06-01

    Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

  19. Food Insecurity and Perceived Diet Quality Among Low-Income Older Americans with Functional Limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yunhee; Hickman, Haley

    2018-05-01

    To evaluate how functional limitations are associated with food insecurity and perceived diet quality in low-income older Americans. Nationwide repeated cross-sectional surveys regarding health and nutritional status. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 2007-2008, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012. Individuals aged ≥65 years with household incomes ≤130% of the federal poverty level (n = 1,323). Dependent variables included dichotomous indicators of food insecurity and poor-quality diet, measured with the household food security survey module and respondents' own ratings, respectively. Independent variable was presence of limitations in physical functioning. Weighted logistic regressions with nested controls and interaction terms. Functional limitations in low-income older adults were associated with 1.69 times higher odds of food insecurity (P food insecurity; 3.07 for poor-quality diet; P functional limitations are exposed to significant nutritional risk. Resources should be directed to facilitating their physical access to healthful foods. Copyright © 2017 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Impacts of the Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security, Traditional Knowledge and Agroecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Türkeş

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive model studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Furthermore, developing countries will suffer the most with a potential 9.1 per cent decline in agricultural output, for example with a considerable decrease of 16.6 per cent in Africa. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases, depending on emission scenarios and the assumptions on effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2 fertilization. One of the tools that would ensure the food security by making use of local sources and traditional knowledge is agroecology. Agroecology would contribute to mitigation of the anthropogenic climate change and cooling down the Earth’s increasing surface and lower atmospheric air temperatures, because it is mainly labour-intensive and requires little uses of fossil fuels, energy and artificial fertilisers. It is also necessary to understand the ecological mechanisms underlying sustainability of traditional farming systems, and to translate them into ecological principles that make locally available and appropriate approaches and techniques applicable to a large number of farmers.

  1. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. Copyright © 2016

  2. Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L; Ando, Amy W; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

    2017-04-01

    Climate-change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation-planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk-diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate-change scenarios for carrying out fine-resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate-change information and full climate-change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate-change forecasts such that the best possible risk-return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate-change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Food web structure shaped by habitat size and climate across a latitudinal gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, Gustavo Q; Piccoli, Gustavo C O; de Omena, Paula M; Gonçalves-Souza, Thiago

    2016-10-01

    Habitat size and climate are known to affect the trophic structure and dynamics of communities, but their interactive effects are poorly understood. Organisms from different trophic levels vary in terms of metabolic requirements and heat dissipation. Indeed, larger species such as keystone predators require more stable climatic conditions than their prey. Likewise, habitat size disproportionally affects large-sized predators, which require larger home ranges and are thus restricted to larger habitats. Therefore, food web structure in patchy ecosystems is expected to be shaped by habitat size and climate variations. Here we investigate this prediction using natural aquatic microcosm (bromeliad phytotelmata) food webs composed of litter resources (mainly detritus), detritivores, mesopredators, and top predators (damselflies). We surveyed 240 bromeliads of varying sizes (water retention capacity) across 12 open restingas in SE Brazil spread across a wide range of tropical latitudes (-12.6° to -27.6°, ca. 2,000 km) and climates (Δ mean annual temperature = 5.3°C). We found a strong increase in predator-to-detritivore mass ratio with habitat size, which was representative of a typical inverted trophic pyramid in larger ecosystems. However, this relationship was contingent among the restingas; slopes of linear models were steeper in more stable and favorable climates, leading to inverted trophic pyramids (and top-down control) being more pronounced in environments with more favorable climatic conditions. By contrast, detritivore-resource and mesopredator-detritivore mass ratios were not affected by habitat size or climate variations across latitudes. Our results highlight that the combined effects of habitat size, climate and predator composition are pivotal to understanding the impacts of multiple environmental factors on food web structure and dynamics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, M. A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 12 (2016), s. 1-7 ISSN 1742-5689 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * extreme events * food security * winter wheat Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.579, year: 2016

  5. Will Transition of Staple Food Strategy in China Really Mitigate Global Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Zhao, D.

    2017-12-01

    With the increase in agricultural demand, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a vital challenge in mitigating climate change. Potato staple food strategy in China introduced by Ministry of Agriculture in 2015 is to gradually adjust staple food structure, which provides an opportunity to meet with the challenge. Apart from staple food structure, difference on energy, material input, geography, and crop management are essential to determine agriculture's contribution to climate change. In this study, we conduct a life cycle analysis of four staple foods in China, namely rice, wheat, maize, and potato, to develop crop-specific estimates of GHG emissions and GHG intensity by using `Production intensity' (carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per kilocalorie produced), to help us understand potential synergies and frictions between food producing and climate mitigation. Data used in this study is on city / province levels if city level is unavailable in 2015. First, we evaluate GHG reductions due to transition of staple food structure in China. Staple food GHG emissions in China are 546.90 Tg CO2e yr-1 in 2015, with 47.6%, 21.9%, 27.3% and 3.2% from rice, wheat, maize and potato. Mean production intensity of staple food is 0.45 Mg CO2e M kcal-1 in 2015. Maize leads the intensity with 0.77 Mg CO2e M kcal-1, followed by rice (0.49 Mg CO2e M kcal-1), wheat (0.28 Mg CO2e M kcal-1) and potato (0.24 Mg CO2e M kcal-1). After staple food structure adjustment, 25 Tg CO2e yr-1 (4.2%) reduction will be accomplished in 2020 without any crop management improvement. Further reduction (33.3% - 40.4%) could be achieved with crop management improvement. In addition, because of staple food structure switching, native rice production will decline, which might lead to more export from countries with higher production intensity. Estimated emission leakage from rice import is 30.10 Tg CO2e yr-1, exceeds emission reduction in native China. Therefore, potato staple food strategy could

  6. Associations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited incomes

    OpenAIRE

    Liu Yan; Nicklas Theresa A; Fisher Jennifer O; Hughes Sheryl O; Hoerr Sharon L; Shewchuk Richard M

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited incomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of parental feeding styles and young children's evening food intake in a multiethnic sample of families in Head S...

  7. Impact of climate change on food security in southwest coastal region of bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, S.; Rahman, A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of climate change on food security of the population residing in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Based on multistage random sampling technique, a survey was conducted to collect socioeconomic and food datasets of the people affected by extreme climate events in the country. The study found that climate change caused food insecurity in the region; it led to greater dependence on pond and rain water for cooking food and water intake. Catastrophe due to extreme weather events adversely affected the livelihoods and level of income. The severe cyclonic storms, Sidr (November 2007) and Alia (May 2009) severely affected the vulnerable people of this region, especially the extremely poor. The study came out with several coping strategies to address adverse effects of climate change, including rehabilitation with income and employment generating activities and development training; alternative livelihood adaptation practices; access to subsidized inputs and credits; introduction of crop calendar; conservation of arable and fellow land; and innovation of saline-tolerant, heat-resistant, moderate water consuming and short-rotation crops for the coastal people. (author)

  8. Perceived effects of climate change on food crops production in Oyo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study assessed the perceived effects of climate change on food crops production in Oyo State. Multi stage sampling procedure was used in selecting 120 respondents for the study. Primary data was collected through interview schedule and it was analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Results reveal ...

  9. Agroforestry solutions to address climate change and food security challenges in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mbow, C.; Neufeldt, H.; Noordwijk, van M.; Minang, P.A.; Kowero, G.; Luedeling, E.

    2014-01-01

    Trees inside and outside forests contribute to food security in Africa in the face of climate variability and change. They also provide environmental and social benefits as part of farming livelihoods. Varied ecological and socio-economic conditions have given rise to specific forms of agroforestry

  10. Slow growth of a translocated beaver population partly due to a climatic shift in food quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, B.A.; Broftová, L.; Heitkönig, I.M.A.; Vorel, A.; Kostkan, V.

    2005-01-01

    In temperate regions climate change has led to advances in plant phenology which may disrupt the synchrony between food availability and reproductive requirements of higher trophic levels. Because leaf quality generally drops with leaf maturation, for herbivorous animals a stoichiometric effect of

  11. Introducing integrated food-energy systems that work for people and climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogdanski, Anne [Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy)

    2011-07-01

    Bioenergy can be part of the implementation of climate-smart agricultural development. However, it is crucial to develop bioenergy operations in ways that mitigate risks and harness benefits. Integrated Food-Energy Systems (IFES) can play an important role in doing so. (orig.)

  12. Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient...

  13. Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevan, Andrew; Colledge, Sue; Fuller, Dorian; Fyfe, Ralph; Shennan, Stephen; Stevens, Chris

    2017-12-05

    We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom-bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  14. The intersection of climate/environment, food, nutrition and health: crisis and opportunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiten, Daniel J; Aimone, Ashley M

    2017-04-01

    Climate/environmental change (C-E-C) is affecting human health and quality of life. Significant attention has been given to the impact of C-E-C on food supply, and food as a vehicle for exposure. However, C-E-C has been superimposed on prevalent malnutrition, infectious and non-communicable diseases. We discuss why nutrition is not synonymous with food and must be viewed as a biological variable that affects and is affected by both C-E-C as well as the current global health challenges. The nexus of C-E-C, food, nutrition and health must be considered in the development of safe and efficacious interventions. A case is presented for how the convergence of C-E-C, food/nutrition and health, presents an opportunity for more integrated approaches to achieve global health goals. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Genome resources for climate-resilient cowpea, an essential crop for food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Amatriaín, María; Mirebrahim, Hamid; Xu, Pei; Wanamaker, Steve I; Luo, MingCheng; Alhakami, Hind; Alpert, Matthew; Atokple, Ibrahim; Batieno, Benoit J; Boukar, Ousmane; Bozdag, Serdar; Cisse, Ndiaga; Drabo, Issa; Ehlers, Jeffrey D; Farmer, Andrew; Fatokun, Christian; Gu, Yong Q; Guo, Yi-Ning; Huynh, Bao-Lam; Jackson, Scott A; Kusi, Francis; Lawley, Cynthia T; Lucas, Mitchell R; Ma, Yaqin; Timko, Michael P; Wu, Jiajie; You, Frank; Barkley, Noelle A; Roberts, Philip A; Lonardi, Stefano; Close, Timothy J

    2017-03-01

    Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp.) is a legume crop that is resilient to hot and drought-prone climates, and a primary source of protein in sub-Saharan Africa and other parts of the developing world. However, genome resources for cowpea have lagged behind most other major crops. Here we describe foundational genome resources and their application to the analysis of germplasm currently in use in West African breeding programs. Resources developed from the African cultivar IT97K-499-35 include a whole-genome shotgun (WGS) assembly, a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) physical map, and assembled sequences from 4355 BACs. These resources and WGS sequences of an additional 36 diverse cowpea accessions supported the development of a genotyping assay for 51 128 SNPs, which was then applied to five bi-parental RIL populations to produce a consensus genetic map containing 37 372 SNPs. This genetic map enabled the anchoring of 100 Mb of WGS and 420 Mb of BAC sequences, an exploration of genetic diversity along each linkage group, and clarification of macrosynteny between cowpea and common bean. The SNP assay enabled a diversity analysis of materials from West African breeding programs. Two major subpopulations exist within those materials, one of which has significant parentage from South and East Africa and more diversity. There are genomic regions of high differentiation between subpopulations, one of which coincides with a cluster of nodulin genes. The new resources and knowledge help to define goals and accelerate the breeding of improved varieties to address food security issues related to limited-input small-holder farming and climate stress. © 2016 The Authors. The Plant Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Experimental Biology.

  16. Food Security Hotspots in India under Changing Climate and Growing Populatio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Global climate change, unprecedented population growth, and rapid urbanization have elevated the possibility of food and water shortages in many regions across the world. The likelihood of such shortages in the future is further exacerbated by the fact that increased greenhouse forcing and rapid growth in human population will continue for at least the next several decades. These socio-environmental changes will likely put some regions under enormous economic and environmental stress by forcing them to adapt to new conditions. India with its rapidly growing population and high rates of urbanization and industrialization is one such region whose agricultural resources will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of these changes. This study collectively reviews and analyses the possible impacts of climate change, population growth and resulting land use change on the availability of food and water in the coming decades for India. By analyzing and fusing a wide variety of existing data and research on the impact of land use change, population, and climate change, on water and food resources this study develops an understanding of the broader implications of each of the changes on food security in the region. In addition, the study focuses on the need to assess and quantify the combination of such impacts at a regional level and identify food security hotspots spatially across India that will help to narrow down regions in the country which will be severely affected and need priority adaptation and mitigation measures.

  17. Associations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited incomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerr, Sharon L; Hughes, Sheryl O; Fisher, Jennifer O; Nicklas, Theresa A; Liu, Yan; Shewchuk, Richard M

    2009-08-13

    Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited incomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of parental feeding styles and young children's evening food intake in a multiethnic sample of families in Head Start. Participants were 715 Head Start children and their parents from Texas and Alabama representing three ethnic groups: African-American (43%), Hispanic (29%), and White (28%). The Caregivers Feeding Styles Questionnaire (Hughes) was used to characterize authoritative, authoritarian (referent), indulgent or uninvolved feeding styles. Food intake in several food groups was calculated from 3 days of dietary recalls for the child for evening food intakes from 3 PM until bedtime. Compared to children of authoritarian parents, intakes of fruits, juice and vegetables were lowest among children of indulgent or uninvolved parents (1.77 +/- 0.09 vs 1.45 +/- 0.09 and 1.42 +/- 0.11 cups) as were intakes of dairy foods (0.84 +/- 0.05 vs 0.67 +/- 0.05 and 0.63+0.06 cups), respectively. Findings suggest that permissive parent feeding styles like indulgent or uninvolved relate negatively to children's intake of nutrient-rich foods fruit, 100% fruit juice, vegetables and dairy foods from 3 PM until bedtime.

  18. Climate, migration, and the local food security context: Introducing Terra Populus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlak, Allison M.; Kugler, Tracy A.

    2016-01-01

    Studies investigating the connection between environmental factors and migration are difficult to execute because they require the integration of microdata and spatial information. In this article, we introduce the novel, publically available data extraction system Terra Populus (TerraPop), which was designed to facilitate population-environment studies. We showcase the use of TerraPop by exploring variations in the climate-migration association in Burkina Faso and Senegal based on differences in the local food security context. Food security was approximated using anthropometric indicators of child stunting and wasting derived from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and linked to the TerraPop extract of climate and migration information. We find that an increase in heat waves was associated with a decrease in international migration from Burkina Faso, while excessive precipitation increased international moves from Senegal. Significant interactions reveal that the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts are strongly amplified in highly food insecure Senegalese departments. PMID:27974863

  19. Water limited agriculture in Africa: Climate change sensitivity of large scale land investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.; Chiarelli, D. D.; Davis, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    The past few decades have seen unprecedented changes in the global agricultural system with a dramatic increase in the rates of food production fueled by an escalating demand for food calories, as a result of demographic growth, dietary changes, and - more recently - new bioenergy policies. Food prices have become consistently higher and increasingly volatile with dramatic spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11. The confluence of these factors has heightened demand for land and brought a wave of land investment to the developing world: some of the more affluent countries are trying to secure land rights in areas suitable for agriculture. According to some estimates, to date, roughly 38 million hectares have been acquired worldwide by large scale investors, 16 million of which in Africa. More than 85% of large scale land acquisitions in Africa are by foreign investors. Many land deals are motivated not only by the need for fertile land but for the water resources required for crop production. Despite some recent assessments of the water appropriation associated with large scale land investments, their impact on the water resources of the target countries under present conditions and climate change scenarios remains poorly understood. Here we investigate irrigation water requirements by various crops planted in the acquired land as an indicator of the pressure likely placed by land investors on ("blue") water resources of target regions in Africa and evaluate the sensitivity to climate changes scenarios.

  20. Estimation of food limitation of bivalve larvae in coastal waters of north-western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, O.G.; Hendriks, I.E.; Strasser, M.

    2006-01-01

    Marine invertebrate recruitment may be affected by food limitation during the pelagic larval life stages. In the present study, field data on abundance of bivalve larvae along with their prey (small phytoplankton) were examined to see whether they were consistent with predictions made...... assimilation rate averaged 7-26% of the maximum assimilation rate. Under the assumptions made for the present study, it is suggested that growth of larvae in north-west European waters is often food-limited. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...

  1. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Rivington

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and the availability of clean water, hence threatening human health, livelihoods and ultimately societal stability. Degradation also increases the vulnerability of populations to the consequences of natural disasters and climate change impacts. With 10 million people dying from hunger each year, the linkages between ecosystems and food security are important to recognize. Though we all depend on ecosystems for our food and water, about seventy per cent of the estimated 1.1 billion people in poverty around the world live in rural areas and depend directly on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods. Healthy ecosystems provide a diverse range of food sources and support entire agricultural systems, but their value to food security and sustainable livelihoods are often undervalued or ignored. There is an urgent need for increased financial investment for integrating ecosystem management with food security and poverty alleviation priorities. As the world’s leaders worked towards a new international climate change agenda in Cancun, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010 (UNFCCC COP16, it was clear that without a deep and decisive post-2012 agreement and major concerted effort to reduce the food crisis, the Millennium Development Goals will not be attained. Political commitment at the highest level will be needed to raise the profile of ecosystems on the global food agenda. It is recommended that full recognition and promotion be given of the linkages

  2. Previous Repeated Exposure to Food Limitation Enables Rats to Spare Lipid Stores during Prolonged Starvation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCue, Marshall D; Albach, Audrey; Salazar, Giovanni

    The risk of food limitation and, ultimately, starvation dates back to the dawn of heterotrophy in animals, yet starvation remains a major factor in the regulation of modern animal populations. Researchers studying starvation more than a century ago suggested that animals subjected to sublethal periods of food limitation are somehow more tolerant of subsequent starvation events. This possibility has received little attention over the past decades, yet it is highly relevant to modern science for two reasons. First, animals in natural populations are likely to be exposed to bouts of food limitation once or more before they face prolonged starvation, during which the risk of mortality becomes imminent. Second, our current approach to studying starvation physiology in the laboratory focuses on nourished animals with no previous exposure to nutritional stress. We examined the relationship between previous exposure to food limitation and potentially adaptive physiological responses to starvation in adult rats and found several significant differences. On two occasions, rats were fasted until they lost 20% of their body mass maintained lower body temperatures, and had presumably lower energy requirements when subjected to prolonged starvation than their naive cohort that never experienced food limitation. These rats that were trained in starvation also had lower plasma glucose set -points and reduced their reliance on endogenous lipid oxidation. These findings underscore (1) the need for biologists to revisit the classic hypothesis that animals can become habituated to starvation, using a modern set of research tools; and (2) the need to design controlled experiments of starvation physiology that more closely resemble the dynamic nature of food availability.

  3. Rising oceans, climate change, food aid, and human rights in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlgren, Ingrid; Yamada, Seiji; Wong, Allen

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts are expected to produce more frequent, longer and unpredictable drought periods with further saltwater intrusion in the Marshall Islands. As a result, a significant return to traditional food cropping is unlikely. This will lead to an increased dependence on food aid, especially in the outer atoll populations. An examination of the nutritional content of food aid suggests it is likely to lead to poor health outcomes. Dependence on food aid has gradually increased over the past 70 years in the Marshall Islands, starting with population relocation because of war and nuclear testing and most recently because of climate change. The authors argue that the health impacts of the supplemental imported diet, combined with migration to population centers, may result in an even greater prevalence of chronic diseases, and exert pressures that lead to more communicable disease, further exacerbating the syndemics in the Marshall Islands. The authors conclude that food aid donors and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) government have human rights obligations to ensure that the people in the Marshall Islands have access to adequate nutrition. Accordingly, donors and the government should re-examine the content of food and ensure it is of sufficient quality to meet the right to health obligations.

  4. Sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply. Political and legal challenges of the 21th century; Nachhaltigkeit, Energiewende, Klimawandel, Welternaehrung. Politische und rechtliche Herausforderungen des 21. Jahrhunderts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haertel, Ines (ed.)

    2014-07-01

    The book on sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply as political challenges in the 21th century includes contributions on the following topics: sustainability and environment, energy and climatic change, agriculture and world food supply.

  5. The implications of psychological limitations for the ethics of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasperbauer, Tyler Joshua

    2016-01-01

    Most philosophers and psychologists who have explored the psychology of climate change have focused only on motivational issues - getting people to act on what morality requires of them. This is misleading, however, because there are other psychological processes directed not at motivation...... but rather our ability to grasp the implications of climate change in a general way - what Stephen Gardiner has called the 'grasping problem'. Taking the grasping problem as my departure point, I draw two conclusions from the relevant psychological literature: 1) ethicists and policy makers should focus less...... on changing individuals' behaviours and more on changing policy; and 2) although solutions to climate change must come at the level of policy, progress on this front will be limited by incompatible moral norms....

  6. Mechanisms Controlling Species Responses to Climate Change: Thermal Tolerances and Shifting Range Limits. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sage, R. F.; Bykova, O.; Coiner, H.

    2010-12-01

    One of the main effects of anthropogenic climate change will be widespread shifts in species distribution, with the common assumption that they will migrate to higher elevation and latitude. While this assumption is supported by migration patterns following climate warming in the past 20,000 years, it has not been rigorously evaluated in terms of physiological mechanism, despite the implication that migration in response to climate warming is controlled by some form of thermal adaptation. We have been evaluating the degree to which species range limits are controlled by physiological patterns of thermal tolerance in bioinvaders of North America. Bioinvaders presumably have few biotic controls over their distribution and thus are more likely to fully exploit their thermal niche. In cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), the minimum lethal temperature in winter is -32C, which corresponds to the mean winter minimum temperature at its northern range limit. In red brome (Bromus rubens), the minimum lethal temperature is also near -32C, which is well below the minimum winter temperature near -20C that corresponds to its northern distribution limit. In kudzu (Pueraria lobata), the minimum lethal temperature is near -20C, which corresponds to the midwinter minimum at its northern distribution limit; however, overwintering kudzu tissues are insulated by soil and snow cover, and thus do not experience lethal temperatures at kudzu's northern range limit. These results demonstrate that some invasive species can exploit the potential range defined by their low temperature tolerance and thus can be predicted by mechanistic models to migrate to higher latitudes with moderation of winter cold. The distribution of other invaders such as kudzu and red brome are not controlled by tolerance of midwinter cold. Developing mechanistic models of their distributions, and how these might change with climate warming, will require extensive physiological study.

  7. Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McJeon, Haewon; Edmonds, Jae; Bauer, Nico; Clarke, Leon; Fisher, Brian; Flannery, Brian P; Hilaire, Jérôme; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Mi, Raymond; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo

    2014-10-23

    The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.

  8. Derivation of recommended limits for radionuclide contamination of foods by the FAO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirth, E.; Mueller, M.K.

    1986-01-01

    As a consequence of the reactor accident at Chernobyl, USSR, various countries defined limits for radioactive contamination of foods at different levels. These limits ranged from a few Bq iodine 131 or cesium 134 + 137/kg (Malaysia and Canada) to more than 1000 Bq/kg (Great Britain and France). These variations in limits hindered the movement of foods in international trade. For this reason the FAO convened an Expert Consultation to derive 'action levels' below which neither intervention nor constraint would be justified in terms of international movement and trade in food and drink. These limits are to find application in cases of widespread environmental contamination after an accidental release of radionuclides. They are not to be applied in cases of local release, e.g. in the vicinity of nuclear facilities. The derivation of 'action levels' by the FAO was based on the recommendations issued by the International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) in May 1985. According to this recommendation the committed dose equivalent for the whole body should not exceed 5 mSv in the first and 1 mSv in the consecutive years. For radionuclides that preferentially irradiate individual organs, e.g. I131 in the thyroid, the dose equivalent to a specified organ may be used to derive limiting values. For individual organs limiting doses of 50 mSv/a and 10 mSv/a respectively were chosen

  9. Derivation of recommended limits for radionuclide contamination of foods by the FAO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wirth, E; Mueller, M K [Institute for Radiation Hygiene, Federal Health Office, Neuherberg (Germany)

    1986-07-01

    As a consequence of the reactor accident at Chernobyl, USSR, various countries defined limits for radioactive contamination of foods at different levels. These limits ranged from a few Bq iodine 131 or cesium 134 + 137/kg (Malaysia and Canada) to more than 1000 Bq/kg (Great Britain and France). These variations in limits hindered the movement of foods in international trade. For this reason the FAO convened an Expert Consultation to derive 'action levels' below which neither intervention nor constraint would be justified in terms of international movement and trade in food and drink. These limits are to find application in cases of widespread environmental contamination after an accidental release of radionuclides. They are not to be applied in cases of local release, e.g. in the vicinity of nuclear facilities. The derivation of 'action levels' by the FAO was based on the recommendations issued by the International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) in May 1985. According to this recommendation the committed dose equivalent for the whole body should not exceed 5 mSv in the first and 1 mSv in the consecutive years. For radionuclides that preferentially irradiate individual organs, e.g. I131 in the thyroid, the dose equivalent to a specified organ may be used to derive limiting values. For individual organs limiting doses of 50 mSv/a and 10 mSv/a respectively were chosen.

  10. Potential climate change favored expansion of a range limited species, Haematostaphis barteri Hook f.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Koundouonon Moutouama

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding impact of climate change on range breadth of rare species can improve the ability to anticipate their decline or expension and take appropriate conservation measures. Haematatostaphis barteri is an agroforestry species of the Sudanian centre of endemism in Africa. We investigeted impact of climate change on range of suitable habitats for this species in Benin,using the Maximum Entropy algorithm under R software. Five environmental variables were used with the regional climate model under the new Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP. Moisture Index of the Moist Quarter and Slope variability had the greatest predictive importance for the range of suitable habitats for H. barteri. Its Potential breadth was found to be currently limited to the Atacora Mountain Chain (AMC and covers 0.51% of national territory. Climate change was projected to favor expansion of suitable habitats for H. barteri by 0.12% and 0.05%, respectively for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These habitats were however mostly out of the local protected areas network. Climate change would extend range of habitats for H. barteri. Observed protection gaps suggest need for integrating this species into formal in situ, on-farm or ex situ conservation schemes.

  11. Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Loew

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture. The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

  12. Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven Railsback; Bret Harvey

    2011-01-01

    Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers’ understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics...

  13. Populations of the northern grasshopper, Melanoplus borealis (Orthoptera: Acrididae), in Alaska are rarely food limited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, Dennis J; Zhang, Mingchu

    2011-06-01

    In some systems, grasshoppers appear to be food limited in most years, whereas in other systems top down forces, for example, predators, are more often implicated in population regulation. Sustainable strategies to manage grasshopper populations through habitat management require knowledge of the forces that regulate grasshopper populations. This experiment was undertaken to determine whether populations of Melanoplus borealis (Fieber), a common pest species in Alaska, are food-limited in Alaska. Cages were set up in a fallow field near Delta Junction, AK, in 3 yr (2007-2009). In 2007 and 2008, fertilizer was added to half the plots to increase primary production, and, in all years, cages within each plot were stocked with 0, 5, 9, or 13 fourth-instar M. borealis (equivalent to 0, 20, 36, or 52 grasshoppers/m(2)). Grasshoppers in each cage were counted weekly. Near the end of the growing season, surviving female grasshoppers (≈40% of the original number) were collected. Femur length was taken as a measure of adult size, and functional ovarioles were counted as a measure of current fecundity. If the grasshoppers were food limited, we expected to see significant effects of either density or fertilizer on grasshopper survival, size, or fecundity. The fertilizer treatment greatly increased primary production in both years. Neither fertilizer treatment nor grasshopper density had consistent effects on survival, size, or potential fecundity, leading us to conclude that food is seldom limiting to populations in the interior of Alaska at densities <50 m(-2).

  14. Deoxynivalenol. Derivation of concentration limits in wheat and wheat containing food products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters MN; Fiolet DCM; Baars AJ; CSR

    1999-01-01

    The mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON) produced by fungi of the Fusarium genus may occur in various cereal crops. A provisional TDI of 1.1 ug per kg body weight was derived to calculate concentration limits for the mycotoxin, deoxynivalenol (DON), in wheat and wheat food products. Children (1-4 years

  15. Asssociations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited inc...

  16. Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobha Poudel

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study tried to understand the mountainous households’ perception of climate change and its impacts on food security in the Lamjung district of Nepal. The study attempted to find out changes in households food security and daily activities in the face of climate change for the last twenty years. The study started with the 150 household surveys along with participatory rural appraisal to understand the climate change perception of local people and its impact on dimensions of food security. Households expressed different levels of perception in terms of climate change on food security. The result shows that most of the mountainous households experienced increased temperature, less rainfall in winter, an increasing number of natural disasters and the emergence of insects for the last twenty years. They perceived the role of climate change in decreased crop production, decreased dairy products and increased household work. The situation of food security is likely to be more vulnerable to climate change in the future. It was also observed that households have been using different autonomous adaptation measures, such as high yielding crop varieties, enhanced irrigation systems and fertilizers, to cope with the changing climate. Finally, the study recommended policy instruments to enhance food security in the mountainous region amidst changing climate.

  17. The Water – Energy – Food Nexus and Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holtermann Talin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This report explores the exposure and vulnerability of Korea and the Southern African region to climate-driven impacts in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF nexus. It presents the building of ecological networks as a mean to address climate change - induced alterations of ecosystems and the consequences for humans and nature. Reducing the asymmetry between price and value of water resources is identified as an essential aspect to enable sound resource management use decisions. The report highlights the need for comprehensive tools which assist decision makers in dealing with the complexity of WEF nexus interrelations and facilitate sustainable resource management.

  18. The nuclear option in front of climate change. Associated risks, limitations and inhibition to alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon

    2015-10-01

    Within the context of struggle against climate change, the reduction of fossil energy consumption and of the associated carbon dioxide production is considered as the main lever of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and nuclear energy is then a matter of debate as a massively available de-carbonated energy but presenting some unacceptable risks. In this synthesis, the authors first propose an overview of risks which cannot be separated from the use of nuclear energy: proliferation as a major, persistent and often ignored threat, a re-assessed and increasing risk of accident, and an accumulation of wastes, materials and sites. In a second part, they show that it has a limited efficiency on emission reduction: indirect but non-null CO 2 emissions, influence of the energy mix, marginal contribution to emission management, declining energetic and climatic role, limited field of action. In the third part, the authors state that nuclear energy could be an inhibitor to the most performing solutions

  19. A Multi-Scale Energy Food Systems Modeling Framework For Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, S.; Bakker, C.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Hobbs, B. F.; Broaddus, E.; Neff, R.; Haskett, J.; Parker, C.

    2016-12-01

    Our goal is to understand coupled system dynamics across scales in a manner that allows us to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes (nutritional satisfaction, household economic well-being) to development strategies and to climate or market induced shocks in sub-Saharan Africa. We adopt both bottom-up and top-down multi-scale modeling approaches focusing our efforts on food, energy, water (FEW) dynamics to define, parameterize, and evaluate modeled processes nationally as well as across climate zones and communities. Our framework comprises three complementary modeling techniques spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture interdependencies between sectors, across time scales, and on multiple levels of geographic aggregation. At the center is a multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial equilibrium model for the production, consumption, storage, and transportation of food, energy, and fuels, which is the focus of this presentation. We show why such models can be very useful for linking and integrating across time and spatial scales, as well as a wide variety of models including an agent-based model applied to rural villages and larger population centers, an optimization-based electricity infrastructure model at a regional scale, and a computable general equilibrium model, which is applied to understand FEW resources and economic patterns at national scale. The MME is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players in an energy, electricity, or food market and captures important food supply chain components of trade and food distribution accounting for infrastructure and geography. Second, our model considers food access and utilization by modeling food waste and disaggregating consumption by income and age. Third, the model is set up to evaluate the effects of seasonality and system shocks on supply, demand, infrastructure, and transportation in both energy and food.

  20. Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2010-01-01

    Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

  1. Climate Change, the Energy-water-food Nexus, and the "New" Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, R. S.; Bennett, K. E.; Solander, K.; Hopkins, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change, extremes, and climate-driven disturbances are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources, particularly in the western and southwestern United States. These unprecedented conditions—a no-analog future—will result in challenges to adaptation, mitigation, and resilience planning for the energy-water-food nexus. We have analyzed the impact of climate change on Colorado River flows for multiple climate and disturbance scenarios: 12 global climate models and two CO2 emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Coupled Model Intercomparison Study, version 5, and multiple climate-driven forest disturbance scenarios including temperature-drought vegetation mortality and insect infestations. Results indicate a wide range of potential streamflow projections and the potential emergence of a "new" Colorado River basin. Overall, annual streamflow tends to increase under the majority of modeled scenarios due to projected increases in precipitation across the basin, though a significant number of scenarios indicate moderate and potentially substantial reductions in water availability. However, all scenarios indicate severe changes in seasonality of flows and strong variability across headwater systems. This leads to increased fall and winter streamflow, strong reductions in spring and summer flows, and a shift towards earlier snowmelt timing. These impacts are further exacerbated in headwater systems, which are key to driving Colorado River streamflow and hence water supply for both internal and external basin needs. These results shed a new and important slant on the Colorado River basin, where an emergent streamflow pattern may result in difficulties to adjust to these new regimes, resulting in increased stress to the energy-water-food nexus.

  2. Contrasting water strategies of two Mediterranean shrubs of limited distribution: uncertain future under a drier climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázaro-Nogal, Ana; Forner, Alicia; Traveset, Anna; Valladares, Fernando

    2013-12-01

    Plants have evolved different strategies to cope with drought, involving alternative ecophysiologies and different levels of plasticity. These strategies are critical for species of limited distribution, which are especially vulnerable to the current rates of rapid environmental change. The aim of this study was to assess the water strategy of two species with limited distribution, Cneorum tricoccon L. and Rhamnus ludovici-salvatoris Chodat., and evaluate their interpopulation variability along an aridity gradient to estimate their vulnerability to a drier climate. We measured different ecophysiological traits influenced by drought--stomatal conductance, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosynthesis II, carbon isotope ratio and chlorophyll concentration--in two climatically contrasting years, before and during summer drought. Both species were vulnerable to drought at the aridity limit of the gradient, but showed contrasting water strategies: while C. tricoccon was consistent in its water conservation strategy across the aridity gradient, R. ludovici-salvatoris was not, displaying higher and more variable stomatal conductances and being able to increase water-use efficiency at the most xeric sites. Changes in length and intensity of drought events may favor one species' strategy to the detriment of the other: C. tricoccon is more vulnerable to chronic and prolonged droughts, whereas short but acute droughts might have a stronger effect on R. ludovici-salvatoris. In those communities where these two species coexist, such different strategies might lead to changes in community structure under climate change scenarios, with unknown cascade effects on ecosystem functioning.

  3. Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian J Das

    Full Text Available Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1 drought stress, or (2 the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

  4. 20th century climate warming and tree-limit rise in the southern Scandes of Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullman, L

    2001-03-01

    Climate warming by ca. 0.8 degree C between the late-19th and late-20th century, although with some fluctuations, has forced multispecies elevational tree-limit advance by > 100 m for the principal tree species in the Swedish part of the Scandinavian mountain range. Predominantly, these processes imply growth in height of old-established individuals and less frequently upslope migration of new individuals. After a slight retardation during some cooler decades after 1940, a new active phase of tree-limit advance has occurred with a series of exceptionally mild winters and some warm summers during the 1990s. The magnitude of total 20th century tree-limit rise varies with topoclimate and is mainly confined to wind-sheltered and snow-rich segments of the landscape. Thickening of birch tree stands in the "advance belt" has profoundly altered the general character of the subalpine/low alpine landscape and provides a positive feedback loop for further progressive change and resilience to short-term cooling episodes. All upslope tree-limit shifts and associated landscape transformations during the 20th century have occurred without appreciable time lags, which constitutes knowledge fundamental to the generation of realistic models concerning vegetation responses to potential future warming. The new and elevated pine tree-limit may be the highest during the past 4000 14C years. Thus, it is tentatively inferred that the 20th century climate is unusually warm in a late-Holocene perspective.

  5. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Farm-level Efficiency in Food Crop Production in Southwestern, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otitoju, MA.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Food crop yields depend largely on prevailing climate conditions, especially in Africa, where rain-fed agriculture predominate. The extent to which climate impacts are felt depends principally on the adaptation measures used by farmers. This study focused on the effect of climate change adaptation strategies on farm-level technical efficiency. The study used primary data collected from 360 randomly selected farmers in Southwest Nigeria. Cobb-Douglass stochastic frontier production model was used to analyse the data. Multiple cropping, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates, mulching and cover cropping were the major climate change adaptation strategies employed by the farmers. While land fragmentation and multiple planting dates had significant positive relationships, years of climate change awareness and social capital had significant inverse relationships, with technical inefficiency. This may be because while land fragmentation may hinder farm mechanization, multiple planting dates may increase the monotonousness and drudgery of farming. On the other hand, social capital and climate change awareness could help ameliorate the effects of, particularly, land fragmentation through resource pooling. It is therefore recommended that the farmers be encouraged to form cooperative societies so as to leverage their resource status through collective efforts.

  6. The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raleigh, Clionadh; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kniveton, Dominic

    2015-05-01

    This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence - higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.

  7. Associations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited incomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yan

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited incomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of parental feeding styles and young children's evening food intake in a multiethnic sample of families in Head Start. Methods Participants were 715 Head Start children and their parents from Texas and Alabama representing three ethnic groups: African-American (43%, Hispanic (29%, and White (28%. The Caregivers Feeding Styles Questionnaire (Hughes was used to characterize authoritative, authoritarian (referent, indulgent or uninvolved feeding styles. Food intake in several food groups was calculated from 3 days of dietary recalls for the child for evening food intakes from 3 PM until bedtime. Results Compared to children of authoritarian parents, intakes of fruits, juice and vegetables were lowest among children of indulgent or uninvolved parents (1.77 ± 0.09 vs 1.45 ± 0.09 and 1.42 ± 0.11 cups as were intakes of dairy foods (0.84 ± 0.05 vs 0.67 ± 0.05 and 0.63+0.06 cups, respectively. Conclusion Findings suggest that permissive parent feeding styles like indulgent or uninvolved relate negatively to children's intake of nutrient-rich foods fruit, 100% fruit juice, vegetables and dairy foods from 3 PM until bedtime.

  8. Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila

    2004-10-01

    Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

  9. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong [Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing (China)

    2007-03-15

    Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered.

  10. The Empowerment Strategy for The Food Crop Farmers in Anticipating The Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efriyani Sumastuti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In Indonesia, the climate change and the global warming like changes in the pattern and distribution of the rainfall give impacts on agricultural production at large, especially in the food crops. These also cause droughts, floods, landslides, forest fires, rising temperatures in urban areas, and rising sea levels. The above impacts are felt by the farmers because those can lead to a decrease in production even the crop failure. This research aims to develop an empowerment strategy of the food crop farmers in anticipating the climate change in Central Java. The data used is the primary data obtained through in-depth interviews with key-person and the Focus Group Discussion (FGD. The Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP is conducted to determine the program priorities and strate gies. The result of research shows that anticipating the climate change should be synergistically conducted in four aspects: human resources, technology, institutional and production, by involving various groups in the society. Various groups can be grouped into academics, businessmen / private sectors, government and community of food crop farmers / society.

  11. Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julio Camarero, J; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

    2015-11-01

    Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin ('rear edge') of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species' European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern 'rear edge', in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. © The Author 2015. Published by

  12. Shining India?: Assessing and addressing the risks from an unsustainable trajectory of climate, water, food, energy and income inequity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    Climate and demographics are primary drivers of regional resource sustainability. In today's global economy, increasing trade has provided a mechanism to alleviate regional stresses. However, increasing regional income promotes consumption, aggravating regional and global resource pressures. South Asia, has the highest population density at a sub-continent scale. Given its monsoonal climate, and high intensity of agriculture it faces perhaps the most severe population weighted water stress in the world. Rapidly declining groundwater tables and the associated high energy use for pumping for irrigated agriculture translate into unsustainable energy imports and expenditure that contributed to the two largest blackouts in global history in summer 2012. Access to water has been progressively declining for both rural and urban populations for the last 3 decades. The increasing energy imports and poor grid reliability translate into limits to the growth of manufacturing and exports of goods and services. The growing income inequity within the population and across national borders, and the impacts of floods and droughts on access to water, food and energy collectively suggest a very high risk for social unrest and a conflict flashpoint. I present a scenario analysis that establishes this case for the emergence of internal and external strife in the region as an outcome of the current resource and natural disaster management policies in the region. Prospects for strategic policy changes for water and energy management and the design of a food procurement and distribution system that could lead to a better future are discussed.

  13. Global dynamics in a stoichiometric food chain model with two limiting nutrients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming; Fan, Meng; Kuang, Yang

    2017-07-01

    Ecological stoichiometry studies the balance of energy and multiple chemical elements in ecological interactions to establish how the nutrient content affect food-web dynamics and nutrient cycling in ecosystems. In this study, we formulate a food chain with two limiting nutrients in the form of a stoichiometric population model. A comprehensive global analysis of the rich dynamics of the targeted model is explored both analytically and numerically. Chaotic dynamic is observed in this simple stoichiometric food chain model and is compared with traditional model without stoichiometry. The detailed comparison reveals that stoichiometry can reduce the parameter space for chaotic dynamics. Our findings also show that decreasing producer production efficiency may have only a small effect on the consumer growth but a more profound impact on the top predator growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  15. Review: Feed demand landscape and implications of food-not feed strategy for food security and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makkar, H P S

    2017-12-04

    The food-feed competition is one of the complex challenges, and so are the ongoing climate change, land degradation and water shortage for realizing sustainable food production systems. By 2050 the global demand for animal products is projected to increase by 60% to 70%, and developing countries will have a lion's share in this increase. Currently, ~800 million tonnes of cereals (one-third of total cereal production) are used in animal feed and by 2050 it is projected to be over 1.1 billion tonnes. Most of the increase in feed demand will be in developing countries, which already face many food security challenges. Additional feed required for the projected increased demand of animal products, if met through food grains, will further exacerbate the food insecurity in these countries. Furthermore, globally, the production, processing and transport of feed account for 45% of the greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector. This paper presents approaches for addressing these challenges in quest for making livestock sector more sustainable. The use of novel human-inedible feed resources such as insect meals, leaf meals, protein isolates, single cell protein produced using waste streams, protein hydrolysates, spineless cactus, algae, co-products of the biofuel industry, food wastes among others, has enormous prospects. Efficient use of grasslands also offers possibilities for increasing carbon sequestration, land reclamation and livestock productivity. Opportunities also exist for decreasing feed wastages by simple and well proven practices such as use of appropriate troughs, increase in efficiency of harvesting crop residues and their conversion to complete feeds especially in the form of densified feed blocks or pellets, feeding as per the nutrient requirements, among others. Available evidence have been presented to substantiate arguments that: (a) for successful and sustained adoption of a feed technology, participation of the private sector and a sound

  16. Testing the environmental performance of urban agriculture as a food supply in northern climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldstein, Benjamin Paul; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Fernandez, John

    2016-01-01

    The past decade has seen a renaissance of urban agriculture in the world's wealthy, northern cities. The practice of producing food in and around cities is championed as a method to reduce environmental impacts of urban food demands (reducing distance from farm to fork - ‘food miles’) whilst......, though opposite findings emerge when external energy inputs are significant. In this study we perform an environmental life cycle assessment of six urban farms in Boston, US producing lettuce and tomatoes, with conventional counterparts across six impact categories. Performance of urban agriculture...... conferring a number of ancillary benefits to host cities (runoff attenuation, urban heat island mitigation) and ex-urban environments (carbon sequestration). Previous environmental assessments have found urban agriculture to be more sustainable than conventional agriculture when performed in mild climates...

  17. Resting egg production induced by food limitation in the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drillet, Guillaume; Hansen, Benni W.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Three populations of the copepod Acartia tonsa, two from the Baltic Sea and one from the U.S. East Coast, were compared for resting egg production at conditions of saturating and limiting food availability. All three populations produced eggs that hatched within 72 h when incubated at 17°C...... (subitaneous eggs), but the two Baltic populations in addition produced eggs that hatched at a much slower rate, in the course of a month (delayed hatching eggs [DHE]). Such eggs were not produced by the U.S. population. The fraction of DHE increased when food was limiting. Females from a Baltic population...... that were incubated individually all produced subitaneous eggs, but about half the females consistently also produced DHE. Cold storage that mimicked boreal winter conditions synchronized the hatching of DHE after extended storage, indicating that spring hatching of DHE might seed the water column...

  18. Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem

    2010-01-01

    Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

  19. Essays on the Economics of Climate Change, Biofuel and Food Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguin, Charles

    Climate change is likely to be the most important global pollution problem that humanity has had to face so far. In this dissertation, I tackle issues directly and indirectly related to climate change, bringing my modest contribution to the body of human creativity trying to deal with climate change. First, I look at the impact of non-convex feedbacks on the optimal climate policy. Second, I try to derive the optimal biofuel policy acknowledging the potential negative impacts that biofuel production might have on food supply. Finally, I test empirically for the presence of loss aversion in food purchases, which might play a role in the consumer response to food price changes brought about by biofuel production. Non-convexities in feedback processes are increasingly found to be important in the climate system. To evaluate their impact on the optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) abate- ment policy, I introduce non-convex feedbacks in a stochastic pollution control model. I numerically calibrate the model to represent the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global climate change. This approach makes two contributions to the literature. First, it develops a framework to tackle stochastic non-convex pollu- tion management problems. Second, it applies this framework to the problem of climate change. This approach is in contrast to most of the economic literature on climate change that focuses either on linear feedbacks or environmental thresholds. I find that non-convex feedbacks lead to a decision threshold in the optimal mitigation policy, and I characterize how this threshold depends on feedback parameters and stochasticity. There is great hope that biofuel can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel. However, there are some concerns that biofuel would increase food prices. In an optimal control model, a co-author and I look at the optimal biofuel production when it competes for land with food production. In addition oil is not

  20. Protecting food security when facing uncertain climate: Opportunities for Afghan communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salman, Dina; Amer, Saud A.; Ward, Frank A.

    2017-11-01

    Climate change, population growth, and weakly developed water management institutions in many of the world's dry communities have raised the importance of designing innovative water allocation methods that adapt to water supply fluctuations while respecting cultural sensitivities. For example, Afghanistan faces an ancient history of water supply fluctuations that have contributed to periodic food shortage and famine. Poorly designed and weakly enforced water allocation methods continue to result in agriculture sector underperformance and periodic food shortages when water shortfalls occur. To date, little research has examined alternative water sharing rules on a multi-basin scale to protect food security for a subsistence irrigation society when the community faces water shortage. This paper's contribution examines the economic performance of three water-sharing mechanisms for three basins in Afghanistan with the goal of protecting food security for crop irrigation under ongoing threats of drought, while meeting growing demands for food in the face of anticipated population growth. We achieved this by formulating an integrated empirical optimization model to identify water-sharing measures that minimize economic losses while protecting food security when water shortages occur. Findings show that implementation of either a water trading policy or a proportional shortage policy that respects cultural sensitivities has the potential to raise economic welfare in each basin. Such a policy can reduce food insecurity risks for all trading provinces within each basin, thus being a productive institution for adapting to water shortage when it occurs. Total economic welfare gains are highest when drought is the most severe for which suffering would otherwise be greatest. Gains would be considerably higher if water storage reservoirs were built to store wet year flows for use in dry years. Our results light a path for policy makers, donors, water administrators, and farm

  1. Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Naustvoll, L.J.; Friocourt, Y.; Mengelers, M.J.B.; Christensen, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal

  2. Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, Bouba; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Wijk, van Mark T.; Corbeels, Marc; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E.

    2017-01-01

    Future climate change will have far reaching consequences for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Here we assessed the farm-level impact of climate change on family food self-sufficiency and evaluated potential adaptation

  3. Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tito, Richard; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Feeley, Kenneth J

    2018-02-01

    One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%-29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha -1  yr -1 . These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amikuzuno, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.

  5. Potentials and Limitations of Regional Organic Food Supply: A Qualitative Analysis of Two Food Chain Types in the Berlin Metropolitan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Doernberg

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Regional food systems and organic agriculture are both considered more sustainable than the conventional, globalized food system they provide an alternative to. The emergence and expansion of alternative forms of food supply are influenced by various factors on different scales. Using the food systems approach we aim to study potentials and limitations of regional organic food supply in the Berlin metropolitan region (BMR. Based on the literature, we developed an analytical framework and identified determinants of regional organic food provision along the three major levels of the supply chain: agricultural production, food chain organization, and consumption. Then, we examined a qualitative case study with two different types of alternative food networks (A organic community supported agriculture (CSA and (B organic retail trade. Factors that hinder or promote the provision of regional organic food were identified through qualitative interviews and assessed by regional stakeholders in a workshop. Our findings show that demand for regional organic food is higher than regional supply, which could offer good possibilities for organic farmers. However, actors in these two food chains need to overcome some obstacles, including limited access to land, increasing renting prices, insufficient processing capacities, and unsupportive political environment for organic farming.

  6. Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

    2016-08-01

    Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.

  7. Meeting the food, energy, and water demands of nine billion people: Will climate change add a new dimension?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change will add a new stress to our ability to produce food and supply water and energy for the expanding population. There is an emerging gap between the current production trends in food commodities around the world and the projected needs to meet the demands for the world population. This...

  8. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhaug, Halvard; Benjaminsen, Tor A.; Sjaastad, Espen; Magnus Theisen, Ole

    2015-12-01

    Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect relationship. The analysis reveals a robust link between weather patterns and food production where more rainfall generally is associated with higher yields. However, the second step in the causal model is not supported; agricultural output and violent conflict are only weakly and inconsistently connected, even in the specific contexts where production shocks are believed to have particularly devastating social consequences. Although this null result could, in theory, be fully compatible with recent reports of food price-related riots, it suggests that the wider socioeconomic and political context is much more important than drought and crop failures in explaining violent conflict in contemporary Africa.

  9. Modeling intermediate product selection under production and storage capacity limitations in food processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilic, Onur Alper; Akkerman, Renzo; Grunow, Martin

    2009-01-01

    In the food industry products are usually characterized by their recipes, which are specified by various quality attributes. For end products, this is given by customer requirements, but for intermediate products, the recipes can be chosen in such a way that raw material procurement costs and pro...... with production and inventory planning, thereby considering the production and storage capacity limitations. The resulting model can be used to solve an important practical problem typical for many food processing industries.......In the food industry products are usually characterized by their recipes, which are specified by various quality attributes. For end products, this is given by customer requirements, but for intermediate products, the recipes can be chosen in such a way that raw material procurement costs...... and processing costs are minimized. However, this product selection process is bound by production and storage capacity limitations, such as the number and size of storage tanks or silos. In this paper, we present a mathematical programming approach that combines decision making on product selection...

  10. Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Naustvoll, L-J

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal...... on food safety hazards, rather than median or average values only. Furthermore, it is recommended to closely monitor levels of mycotoxins and marine biotoxins in the future, in particular related to risky situations associated with favourable climatic conditions for toxin producing organisms...

  11. The CAMI Project - Weather and Climate Services for Caribbean Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotman, Adrian; Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Food security is major focus of Caribbean governments, with production being of particular concern. For the past three decades, Caribbean agriculture has been declining in relative importance, both in terms of its contribution to GDP and its share of the labour force. One of the problems Caribbean agriculture faces is the destructive impacts from weather and climate extremes. These include flood, drought, extreme temperatures, and strong winds from tropical cyclones. Other potential disasters, such as from pests and diseases attacks, are also weather and climate driven. These make weather and climate information critically important to decision-making in agriculture in the Caribbean region. In an effort to help reduce weather and climate related risks to the food security sector, The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, along with its partners the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and ten National Meteorological Services from within the Caribbean Community launched and implemented the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI). From 2010 to 2013, CAMI set out to provide relevant information to farmers, and the industry in general, for decision and policy making. The project is funded by the European Union through the Science and Technology Programme of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of Countries' (ACP). The overarching objective of CAMI was to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information, using an integrated and coordinated approach. Currently, this is done through (i) provision of relevant climate information appropriately disseminated, (ii) predictions on seasonal rainfall and temperature, (iii) support for improved irrigation management, (iv) the development of strategically selected weather-driven pest and disease models, (v) use of crop simulation models

  12. 21 CFR 886.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 886.9 Section 886.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 886.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  13. 21 CFR 872.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 872.9 Section 872.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 872.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  14. 21 CFR 888.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 888.9 Section 888.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 888.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  15. 21 CFR 892.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 892.9 Section 892.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 892.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  16. 21 CFR 882.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 882.9 Section 882.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 882.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  17. Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

    2010-09-01

    This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

  18. The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nenzén, Hedvig K; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara

    2014-01-01

    Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans) on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.

  19. The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedvig K Nenzén

    Full Text Available Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.

  20. By how much would limiting TV food advertising reduce childhood obesity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Van Beeck, Eduard F; Barendregt, Jan J; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2009-08-01

    There is evidence suggesting that food advertising causes childhood obesity. The strength of this effect is unclear. To inform decisions on whether to restrict advertising opportunities, we estimate how much of the childhood obesity prevalence is attributable to food advertising on television (TV). We constructed a mathematical simulation model to estimate the potential effects of reducing the exposure of 6- to 12-year-old US children to TV advertising for food on the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Model input was based on body measurements from NHANES 2003-04, the CDC-2000 cut-offs for weight categories, and literature that relates advertising to consumption levels and consumption to body mass. In an additional analysis we use a Delphi study to obtain experts' estimates of the effect of advertising on consumption. Based on literature findings, the model predicts that reducing the exposure to zero would decrease the average BMI by 0.38 kg/m(-2) and lower the prevalence of obesity from 17.8 to 15.2% (95% uncertainty interval 14.8-15.6) for boys and from 15.9% to 13.5% (13.1-13.8) for girls. When estimates are based on expert opinion, these values are 11.0% (7.7-14.0) and 9.9% (7.2-12.4), respectively. This study suggests that from one in seven up to one in three obese children in the USA might not have been obese in the absence of advertising for unhealthy food on TV. Limiting the exposure of children to marketing of energy-dense food could be part of a broader effort to make children's diets healthier.

  1. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  2. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  3. Exploring Pacific Climate Variability and Its Impacts on East African Water Resources and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.; Verdin, J. P.; Eilerts, G.

    2014-12-01

    In 8 out the past 15 boreal springs (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013), substantial parts of eastern East Africa experienced very low boreal spring rains. These rainfall deficits have triggered widespread food insecurity, and even contributed to the outbreak of famine conditions in Somalia in 2011. At both seasonal and decadal time scales, new science supported by the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network seeks to understand the mechanisms producing these droughts. We present research suggesting that the ultimate and proximate causes of these increases in aridity are i) stronger equatorial Pacific SST gradients and ii) associated increases in the strength of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. Using observations and new modeling ensembles, we explore the relative contributions of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and global warming under warm and cold east Pacific Ocean states. This question is addressed in two ways: by using atmospheric GCMs forced with full and ENSO-only SSTs, and ii) by decomposing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations into PDV and non-PDV components. These analyses allow us to explore the Walker circulation's sensitivity to climate change under various PDV states, and inform a tentative bracketing of 2030 climate conditions. We conclude by discussing links to East African development. Regions of high rainfall sensitivity are delineated and intersected with recent changes in population and land cover/land use. The interaction of elevation and climate is shown to create climatically secure regions that are likely to remain viable even under drier and warmer conditions; such regions may be logical targets for agricultural intensification. Conversely, arid low elevation regions are likely to experience substantial temperature impacts. Continued expansion into these areas may effectively create more 'drought' even if rainfall increases.

  4. Determination of mycotoxins in foods: current state of analytical methods and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köppen, Robert; Koch, Matthias; Siegel, David; Merkel, Stefan; Maul, Ronald; Nehls, Irene

    2010-05-01

    Mycotoxins are natural contaminants produced by a range of fungal species. Their common occurrence in food and feed poses a threat to the health of humans and animals. This threat is caused either by the direct contamination of agricultural commodities or by a "carry-over" of mycotoxins and their metabolites into animal tissues, milk, and eggs after feeding of contaminated hay or corn. As a consequence of their diverse chemical structures and varying physical properties, mycotoxins exhibit a wide range of biological effects. Individual mycotoxins can be genotoxic, mutagenic, carcinogenic, teratogenic, and oestrogenic. To protect consumer health and to reduce economic losses, surveillance and control of mycotoxins in food and feed has become a major objective for producers, regulatory authorities and researchers worldwide. However, the variety of chemical structures makes it impossible to use one single technique for mycotoxin analysis. Hence, a vast number of analytical methods has been developed and validated. The heterogeneity of food matrices combined with the demand for a fast, simultaneous and accurate determination of multiple mycotoxins creates enormous challenges for routine analysis. The most crucial issues will be discussed in this review. These are (1) the collection of representative samples, (2) the performance of classical and emerging analytical methods based on chromatographic or immunochemical techniques, (3) the validation of official methods for enforcement, and (4) the limitations and future prospects of the current methods.

  5. Food Poverty, Climate Change and Land Access in central Uganda: A focus on low-income women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nambuanyi, Lekunze Ransom

    climate change impacts in Uganda have affected women’s livelihoods and food security; the constraints that exacerbate women’s vulnerability to food insecurity; and their adaptive capacity to mitigate these impacts. These findings will serve as a catalyst for the larger project that will generate......Abstract: This concept paper presents part of a work in progress on a participatory action research project that seeks to investigate the interrelated effects of climate change, agricultural practices and land tenure systems on women’s food security in central Uganda. We examine policy implications...... of food insecurity among low-income women (farmers) in central Uganda, positing the view that the agricultural and livelihood choices women farmers make are subject to the constraints they face and the policy alternatives available for them. Uganda is burdened with rising poverty, malnutrition and food...

  6. Nonlinear flowering responses to climate: are species approaching their limits of phenological change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iler, Amy M.; Høye, Toke T.; Inouye, David W.; Schmidt, Niels M.

    2013-01-01

    Many alpine and subalpine plant species exhibit phenological advancements in association with earlier snowmelt. While the phenology of some plant species does not advance beyond a threshold snowmelt date, the prevalence of such threshold phenological responses within plant communities is largely unknown. We therefore examined the shape of flowering phenology responses (linear versus nonlinear) to climate using two long-term datasets from plant communities in snow-dominated environments: Gothic, CO, USA (1974–2011) and Zackenberg, Greenland (1996–2011). For a total of 64 species, we determined whether a linear or nonlinear regression model best explained interannual variation in flowering phenology in response to increasing temperatures and advancing snowmelt dates. The most common nonlinear trend was for species to flower earlier as snowmelt advanced, with either no change or a slower rate of change when snowmelt was early (average 20% of cases). By contrast, some species advanced their flowering at a faster rate over the warmest temperatures relative to cooler temperatures (average 5% of cases). Thus, some species seem to be approaching their limits of phenological change in response to snowmelt but not temperature. Such phenological thresholds could either be a result of minimum springtime photoperiod cues for flowering or a slower rate of adaptive change in flowering time relative to changing climatic conditions. PMID:23836793

  7. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

  8. Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg; Maussion, Fabien; Champollion, Nicolas

    2018-04-01

    Glacier mass loss is a key contributor to sea-level change1,2, slope instability in high-mountain regions3,4 and the changing seasonality and volume of river flow5-7. Understanding the causes, mechanisms and time scales of glacier change is therefore paramount to identifying successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we use temperature and precipitation fields from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 output to force a glacier evolution model, quantifying mass responses to future climatic change. We find that contemporary glacier mass is in disequilibrium with the current climate, and 36 ± 8% mass loss is already committed in response to past greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, mitigating future emissions will have only very limited influence on glacier mass change in the twenty-first century. No significant differences between 1.5 and 2 K warming scenarios are detectable in the sea-level contribution of glaciers accumulated within the twenty-first century. In the long-term, however, mitigation will exert strong control, suggesting that ambitious measures are necessary for the long-term preservation of glaciers.

  9. Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Ruhul Amin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The crops that we grow for food need specific climatic conditions to show better performance in view of economic yield. A changing climate could have both beneficial and harmful effects on crops. Keeping the above view in mind, this study is undertaken to investigate the impacts of climate change (viz. changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine on the yield and cropping area of four major food crops (viz. Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat in Bangladesh. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard error (HAC and feasible generalized least square (FGLS methods were used to determine the climate-crop interrelations using national level time series data for the period of 1972–2010. Findings revealed that the effects of all the climate variables have had significant contributions to the yield and cropping area of major food crops with distinct variation among them. Maximum temperature statistically significantly affected all the food crops’ yield except Aus rice. Maximum temperature also insignificantly affected cropping area of all the crops. Minimum temperature insignificantly affected Aman rice but benefited other three crops’ yield and cropping area. Rainfall significantly benefitted cropping area of Aus rice, but significantly affected both yield and cropping area of Aman rice. Humidity statistically positively contributed to the yield of Aus and Aman rice but, statistically, negatively influenced the cropping area of Aus rice. Sunshine statistically significantly benefitted only Boro rice yield. Overall, maximum temperature adversely affected yield and cropping area of all the major food crops and rainfall severely affected Aman rice only. Concerning the issue of climate change and ensuring food security, the respective authorities thus should give considerable attention to the generation, development and extension of drought (all major food crops and flood (particularly Aman

  10. Uncertainty Quantification given Discontinuous Climate Model Response and a Limited Number of Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargsyan, K.; Safta, C.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H.

    2010-12-01

    Uncertainty quantification in complex climate models is challenged by the sparsity of available climate model predictions due to the high computational cost of model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analysis from being readily applicable is bifurcative behavior in climate model response with respect to certain input parameters. A typical example is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The predicted maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO2 forcing. We outline a methodology for uncertainty quantification given discontinuous model response and a limited number of model runs. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity with Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve shape and location for arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Then, we construct spectral representations of uncertainty, using Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on either side of the discontinuity curve, leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification. The approach is enabled by a Rosenblatt transformation that maps each side of the discontinuity to regular domains where desirable orthogonality properties for the spectral bases hold. We obtain PC modes by either orthogonal projection or Bayesian inference, and argue for a hybrid approach that targets a balance between the accuracy provided by the orthogonal projection and the flexibility provided by the Bayesian inference - where the latter allows obtaining reasonable expansions without extra forward model runs. The model output, and its associated uncertainty at specific design points, are then computed by taking an ensemble average over PC expansions corresponding to possible realizations of the discontinuity curve. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of

  11. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semi-arid climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, V.; Schoonejans, J.; Opfergelt, S.; Ameijeiras-Marino, Y.; Christl, M.

    2016-12-01

    On Earth, the Critical Zone supports terrestrial life, being the near-surface environment where interactions between the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere take place Quantitative understanding of the interaction between mechanical rock breakdown, chemical weathering, and physical erosion is essential for unraveling Earth's biogeochemical cycles. In this study, we explore the role of soil water balance on regulating soil chemical weathering under water deficit regimes. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We present and compare quantitative information on soil weathering, chemical depletion and total denudation that were derived based on geochemical mass balance, 10Be cosmogenic nuclides and U-series disequilibria. Soil production rates determined based on U-series isotopes (238U, 234U, 230Th and 226Ra) are of the same order of magnitude as 10Be-derived denudation rates, suggesting steady state soil thickness, in two out of three sampling sites. The chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (˜5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Soil weathering extents increase (nonlinearly) with soil thickness and decrease with increasing surface denudation rates, consistent with kinetically limited or controlled weathering. Our study suggests that soil residence time and water availability limit weathering processes in semi-arid climates, which has not been validated previously with field data. An important implication of this finding is that climatic regimes may strongly regulate soil weathering by modulating soil solute fluxes.

  12. Benthic Foraminifera, Food in the Deep Sea, and Limits to Bentho-Pelagic Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, E.; Boscolo-Galazzo, F.; Arreguin-Rodrigu, G. J.; Ortiz, S.; Alegret, L.

    2015-12-01

    The deep-sea is the largest habitat on Earth, contains highly diverse biota, but is very little known. Many of its abundant benthic biota (e.g., nematodes) are not preserved in the fossil record. Calcareous and agglutinated benthic foraminifera (unicellular eukaryotes, Rhizaria; efficient dispersers) and ostracodes (Animalia, Crustacea; non-efficient dispersers) are the most common organisms providing a fossil record of deep-sea environments. Very little food is supplied to the deep-sea, because organic matter produced by photosynthesis is largely degraded before it arrives at the seafloor. Only a few % of organic matter is carried to the ocean bottom by 'marine snow', with its particle size and behavior in the water column controlled by surface ecosystem structure, including type of dominant primary producers (diatoms, cyanobacteria). Food supply and its seasonality are generally seen as the dominant control on benthic assemblages (combined with oxygenation), providing bentho-pelagic coupling between primary and benthic productivity. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages (composition and density) thus are used widely to estimate past productivity, especially during episodes of global climate change, ocean acidification, and mass extinction of primary producers. We show that some environmental circumstances may result in interrupting bentho-pelagic coupling, e.g. through lateral supply of organic matter along continental margins (adding more refractory organic matter), through trophic focusing and/or fine particle winnowing on seamounts (giving an advantage to suspension feeders), and through carbonate undersaturation (giving advantage to infaunal over epifaunal calcifyers). In addition, increased remineralization of organic matter combined with increased metabolic rates may cause assemblages to reflect more oligotrophic conditions at stable primary productivity during periods of global warming. As a result, benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates must be carefully

  13. Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

  14. 76 FR 54801 - Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a Subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding Limited, Grove City, PA...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-02

    ... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employment and Training Administration [TA-W-75,183] Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a Subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding Limited, Grove City, PA; Notice of Revised Determination... (TAA) applicable to workers and former workers of Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a subsidiary of Reynolds...

  15. Larval growth in the dominant polychaete Polydora ciliata is food-limited in a eutrophic Danish estuary (Isefjord)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Troels Møller; Almeda, Rodrigo; Fotel, Frank Lech

    2010-01-01

    Food limitation in larval growth of the spionid polychaete Polydora ciliata was examined in a typical eutrophic estuary, Isefjord, in Denmark. In the field, food availability and the energetic requirements of the P. ciliata larval population were measured during 2 different periods in 2004 and 20...

  16. Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Dubovsky, James A.; Drewien, Roderick C.

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment.Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression.Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring–summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect.Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond

  17. Quantitative genetic analysis of responses to larval food limitation in a polyphenic butterfly indicates environment- and trait-specific effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saastamoinen, M.; Brommer, J.E.; Brakefield, P.M.; Zwaan, B.J.

    2013-01-01

    Different components of heritability, including genetic variance (VG), are influenced by environmental conditions. Here, we assessed phenotypic responses of life-history traits to two different developmental conditions, temperature and food limitation. The former represents an environment that

  18. Intra- and Trans-Generational Costs of Reduced Female Body Size Caused by Food Limitation Early in Life in Mites

    OpenAIRE

    Walzer, Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Background Food limitation early in life may be compensated for by developmental plasticity resulting in accelerated development enhancing survival at the expense of small adult body size. However and especially for females in non-matching maternal and offspring environments, being smaller than the standard may incur considerable intra- and trans-generational costs. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we evaluated the costs of small female body size induced by food limitation early in life i...

  19. Climatic limits on foliar growth during major droughts in the southwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Jeremy L.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.

    2012-09-01

    Pronounced droughts during the 1950s and 2000s in the American Southwest provide an opportunity to compare mesoscale ecosystem responses to anomalously dry conditions before and during the regional warming that started in the late 1970s. This year-round warming has produced fewer cool season freezes, losses in regional snowpack, an 8-10 day advance in spring onset, and hotter summers, all of which should affect vegetation differently across seasons and elevations. Here, we examine indices that represent climatic limits on foliar growth for both drought periods and evaluate these indices for areas that experienced tree mortality during the 2000s drought. Relative to the 1950s drought, warmer conditions during the 2000s drought decreased the occurrence of temperatures too low for foliar growth at lower elevations in winter and higher elevations in summer. Higher vapor pressure deficits (VPDs), largely driven by warmer temperatures in the more recent drought, were more limiting to foliar growth from spring through summer at lower and middle elevations. At many locations where tree mortality occurred during the 2000s drought, low-temperature constraints on foliar growth were extremely unlimiting, whereas VPD constraints were extremely limiting from early spring through late autumn. Our analysis shows that in physiographically complex regions such as the Southwest, seasonality and elevational gradients are important for understanding vegetative responses to warming. It also suggests that continued warming will both increase the degree to which VPD limits foliar growth during future droughts and expand its reach to higher elevations and other seasons.

  20. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  1. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of climatic shifts on the production and processing of native and traditional crops in the Bolivian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alder eKeleman Saxena

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data was collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed-methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes a the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia; and b the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp., oca (Oxalis tuberosa, tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis, papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus, and charkay (llama or sheep jerky. Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Further, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. While these findings are drawn from a single case-study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, indigenous food systems. Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture, and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  2. Rethinking crop diversification under changing climate, hydrology and food habit in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminul Islam Akanda

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Extreme temperature, frequent and intensive flood, cyclone and other natural disasters due to climate change became acute in Bangladesh and would be severe in future. Besides, water crisis due to shortage of upstream flow and very little rainfall in dry season would affect in a same way. Gradual higher dependency on groundwater irrigation during last few decades created pressure on groundwater even after a huge discharge during rainy season. Using secondary data, this research analyzed the changes in cropping pattern along with a forecast of area to be distributed among various crops in 2029-30 and proposed a re-distribution considering probable crop failure, water crisis and change in food habit. Inherit rice-dominated food habit and government incentive policy encouraged farmers to be concentrated highly on water-intensive rice farming. However, a recent tendency of less rice consumption would encourage crop diversification in future. An incentive policy for farming of diversified crops and their intensification in all crop seasons would be effective to reduce pressure on groundwater and to persuade a balanced food basket in Bangladesh.

  3. Misperceived climate friendliness of organic food and consumer willingness to pay for actual greenhouse gas emission reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Søren Bøye; Christensen, Tove; Denver, Sigrid

    2015-01-01

    Organic farming practices are generally associated with lower environmental impacts than conventional farming but this does not generally hold true in a climate context. A recent meta-analysis shows that organic milk production often has higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per kilo milk produce...... in consumers’ preferences. Hence, if reduced GHG emissions are to be pursued by increased consumption of climate friendlier food then marketing efforts and information strategies need to be targeted specifically to different segments of the population....

  4. Food limitation of sea lion pups and the decline of forage off central and southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClatchie, Sam; Field, John; Thompson, Andrew R.; Gerrodette, Tim; Lowry, Mark; Fiedler, Paul C.; Watson, William; Nieto, Karen M.; Vetter, Russell D.

    2016-01-01

    California sea lions increased from approximately 50 000 to 340 000 animals in the last 40 years, and their pups are starving and stranding on beaches in southern California, raising questions about the adequacy of their food supply. We investigated whether the declining sea lion pup weight at San Miguel rookery was associated with changes in abundance and quality of sardine, anchovy, rockfish and market squid forage. In the last decade off central California, where breeding female sea lions from San Miguel rookery feed, sardine and anchovy greatly decreased in biomass, whereas market squid and rockfish abundance increased. Pup weights fell as forage food quality declined associated with changes in the relative abundances of forage species. A model explained 67% of the variance in pup weights using forage from central and southern California and 81% of the variance in pup weights using forage from the female sea lion foraging range. A shift from high to poor quality forage for breeding females results in food limitation of the pups, ultimately flooding animal rescue centres with starving sea lion pups. Our study is unusual in using a long-term, fishery-independent dataset to directly address an important consequence of forage decline on the productivity of a large marine predator. Whether forage declines are environmentally driven, are due to a combination of environmental drivers and fishing removals, or are due to density-dependent interactions between forage and sea lions is uncertain. However, declining forage abundance and quality was coherent over a large area (32.5–38° N) for a decade, suggesting that trends in forage are environmentally driven. PMID:27069651

  5. Geographical and climatic limits of needle types of one- and two-needled pinyon pines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, K.L.; Fisher, J.; Arundel, S.T.; Cannella, J.; Swift, S.

    2008-01-01

    Aim: The geographical extent and climatic tolerances of one- and two-needled pinyon pines (Pinus subsect. Cembroides) are the focus of questions in taxonomy, palaeoclimatology and modelling of future distributions. The identification of these pines, traditionally classified by one- versus two-needled fascicles, is complicated by populations with both one- and two-needled fascicles on the same tree, and the description of two more recently described one-needled varieties: the fallax-type and californiarum-type. Because previous studies have suggested correlations between needle anatomy and climate, including anatomical plasticity reflecting annual precipitation, we approached this study at the level of the anatomy of individual pine needles rather than species. Location: Western North America. Methods: We synthesized available and new data from field and herbarium collections of needles to compile maps of their current distributions across western North America. Annual frequencies of needle types were compared with local precipitation histories for some stands. Historical North American climates were modelled on a c. 1-km grid using monthly temperature and precipitation values. A geospatial model (ClimLim), which analyses the effect of climate-modulated physiological and ecosystem processes, was used to rank the importance of seasonal climate variables in limiting the distributions of anatomical needle types. Results: The pinyon needles were classified into four distinct types based upon the number of needles per fascicle, needle thickness and the number of stomatal rows and resin canals. The individual needles fit well into four categories of needle types, whereas some trees exhibit a mixture of two needle types. Trees from central Arizona containing a mixture of Pinus edulis and fallax-type needles increased their percentage of fallax-type needles following dry years. All four needle types occupy broader geographical regions with distinctive precipitation regimes

  6. 21 CFR 880.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 880.9 Section 880.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification...

  7. 21 CFR 862.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 862.9 Section 862.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket...

  8. Present limits to heat-adaptability in corals and population-level responses to climate extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard M Riegl

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1-3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33-35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as "critically endangered". We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world's most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.

  9. Potentials and limitations of epistemic communities. An analysis of the World Climate Council and the Framework Convention on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otto, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    In times of increasing global uncertainties, science takes a central position for policy decisions. According to Peter M. Haas, epistemic communities are able to influence the cooperative behavior of states through their consensual knowledge. This book critically examines this statement. As the case of the Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, the World Climate Council (IPCC) was not in a position to enforce its solution options in the intergovernmental negotiations, as these affected the individual convictions of the decision-makers. While Angela Merkel advocated an agreement, the US government under George W. Bush denied the existence of climate change. Decision-makers and their individual convictions must therefore have a greater significance in international politics. [de

  10. Disease will limit future food supply from the global crustacean fishery and aquaculture sectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stentiford, G D; Neil, D M; Peeler, E J; Shields, J D; Small, H J; Flegel, T W; Vlak, J M; Jones, B; Morado, F; Moss, S; Lotz, J; Bartholomay, L; Behringer, D C; Hauton, C; Lightner, D V

    2012-06-01

    abilities of invertebrates to mitigate assault from pathogens (e.g. the use of RNA interference therapeutics). In terms of fisheries losses associated with disease, key issues are centred on mortality and quality degradation in the post-capture phase, largely due to poor grading and handling by fishers and the industry chain. Occurrence of disease in wild crustaceans is also widely reported, with some indications that climatic changes may be increasing susceptibility to important pathogens (e.g. the parasite Hematodinium). However, despite improvements in field and laboratory diagnostics, defining population-level effects of disease in these fisheries remains elusive. Coordination of disease specialists with fisheries scientists will be required to understand current and future impacts of existing and emergent diseases on wild stocks. Overall, the increasing demand for crustacean seafood in light of these issues signals a clear warning for the future sustainability of this global industry. The linking together of global experts in the culture, capture and trading of crustaceans with pathologists, epidemiologists, ecologists, therapeutics specialists and policy makers in the field of food security will allow these issues to be better identified and addressed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. The nature of food: indigenous Dene foodways and ontologies in the era of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Walsh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change leading to a drastic decline in caribou populations has prompted strict hunting regulations in Canada’s Northwest Territories since 2010. The Dene, a subarctic indigenous people, have responded by turning to tradition and calling for more respectful hunting to demonstrate respectful reciprocity to the caribou, including a community-driven foodways project on caribou conservation and Dene caribou conservation which I co-facilitated in 2011. In these ways the caribou is approached as a person. Dene responses to caribou decline can best be understood by ontological theories of an expanded notion of indigenous personhood. However, I argue these theories are inadequate without an attention to foodways, specifically the getting, sharing, and returning of food to the land. The necessity of sustenance reveals a complicated relationship of give-and-take between humans and caribou, negotiated by tradition, yet complicated by the contemporary crisis.

  12. Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

    2018-02-01

    Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

  13. Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

    2013-05-01

    Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

  14. The water-energy-food-climate-economics nexus: solving hunger and resource scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2011-12-01

    A nexus refers to the core or to interconnectivity across issues. Addressing the boundary interactions of traditional sectors in an interconnected world as human activities change the physical boundaries of land and climate is an emerging academic and governance discourse. Through contrasting examples from the US and India, I shed light on the descriptive aspects of these connections and feedbacks that define potential impacts or traps for societies, and ponder whether a massive conceptual or numerical Earth System Model can help inform outcomes, or whether there are dominant links at particular scales (physical, social, economic or biological) that characterize the emergent dynamics and define critical equilibrium or transient solutions in certain places. However, the real question is what next given the definition of the nexus? Here, I argue that given the current valuation and management structure of different resource sectors and the associated information flows and sensitivities, the interlinked energy-climate issues can emerge as useful drivers of improved productivity in water-food systems, thus promoting resource and environmental sustainability while promoting economic development. Thus, levers can be found that help steer the course of these complex interacting systems towards desirable sectoral outcomes.

  15. FOOD QUALITY AND SAFETY ASSURANCE IN TERMS OF LOSS AND WASTE LIMITATION

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Śmiechowska; Filip Kłobukowski

    2016-01-01

    One of the greatest challenges of 21st century is satisfying the food needs of the fast growing population of the world. Food must fulfill quality and safety standards.  The access to safe and appropriate food is not the same everywhere.  Food excess and, in consequence, food waste is present in many regions of the world. This study is meant to explain the causes of food waste on the basis of the author’s own research and study results of other scientists. The lack of au...

  16. Sequential planning of flood protection infrastructure under limited historic flood record and climate change uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Flood protection is often designed to safeguard people and property following regulations and standards, which specify a target design flood protection level, such as the 100-year flood level prescribed in Germany (DWA, 2011). In practice, the magnitude of such an event is only known within a range of uncertainty, which is caused by limited historic records and uncertain climate change impacts, among other factors (Hall & Solomatine, 2008). As more observations and improved climate projections become available in the future, the design flood estimate changes and the capacity of the flood protection may be deemed insufficient at a future point in time. This problem can be mitigated by the implementation of flexible flood protection systems (that can easily be adjusted in the future) and/or by adding an additional reserve to the flood protection, i.e. by applying a safety factor to the design. But how high should such a safety factor be? And how much should the decision maker be willing to pay to make the system flexible, i.e. what is the Value of Flexibility (Špačková & Straub, 2017)? We propose a decision model that identifies cost-optimal decisions on flood protection capacity in the face of uncertainty (Dittes et al. 2017). It considers sequential adjustments of the protection system during its lifetime, taking into account its flexibility. The proposed framework is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis, using Decision Trees and Markov Decision Processes, and is fully quantitative. It can include a wide range of uncertainty components such as uncertainty associated with limited historic record or uncertain climate or socio-economic change. It is shown that since flexible systems are less costly to adjust when flood estimates are changing, they justify initially lower safety factors. Investigation on the Value of Flexibility (VoF) demonstrates that VoF depends on the type and degree of uncertainty, on the learning effect (i.e. kind and quality of

  17. Complex agro-ecosystems for food security in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khumairoh, Uma; Groot, Jeroen CJ; Lantinga, Egbert A

    2012-01-01

    Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers world wide. Alternatively, cocultures consisting of assemblages of plant and animal species can support ecological processes of nutrient cycling and pest control, which may lead to increasing yields and declining susceptibility to extreme weather conditions with increasing complexity of the systems. Here we show that enhancing the complexity of a rice production system by adding combinations of compost, azolla, ducks, and fish resulted in strongly increased grain yields and revenues in a season with extremely adverse weather conditions on East Java, Indonesia. We found that azolla, duck, and fish increased plant nutrient content, tillering and leaf area expansion, and strongly reduced the density of six different pests. In the most complex system comprising all components the highest grain yield was obtained. The net revenues of this system from sales of rice grain, fish, and ducks, after correction for extra costs, were 114% higher than rice cultivation with only compost as fertilizer. These results provide more insight in the agro-ecological processes and demonstrate how complex agricultural systems can contribute to food security in a changing climate. If smallholders can be trained to manage these systems and are supported for initial investments by credits, their livelihoods can be improved while producing in an ecologically benign way. PMID:22957173

  18. Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Vervoort, Joost; Palazzo, Amanda; Islam, Shahnila; Lord, Steven; Helfgott, Ariella; Havlík, Petr; Peou, Rathana; Sassen, Marieke; Veeger, Marieke; van Soesbergen, Arnout; Arnell, Andrew P.; Stuch, Benjamin; Arslan, Aslihan; Lipper, Leslie

    Abstract Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use

  19. The Household Economy Approach. Managing the impact of climate change on poverty and food security in developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. Seaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have severe effects on the populations of developing countries because many of these depend heavily on agriculture for income, have large impoverished rural populations which rely on agriculture for subsistence, and are financially and technically least equipped to adapt to changing conditions. Planning to target measures to support adaptation to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty and food insecurity requires methods of identifying vulnerable households. This paper describes an established approach to vulnerability assessment, the ‘Household Economy Approach’ (HEA and its potential application to the management of climate change in developing countries. The HEA is widely used by Governments and others, chiefly in Africa, for the assessment of household vulnerability to poverty and food security. HEA uses a model based on Amartya Sen’s entitlement theory and detailed social and economic data to simulate the impact of weather related, price, policy and other shocks on household income and food access, to provide information for decision making. In developing countries climate change will be experienced in terms of increased climate variability and an increased frequency of extreme events. HEA provides a way of managing the effects of year to year shocks to prevent impoverishment and the erosion of household resilience. It also provides the information needed to develop scenarios to support the design of policies to support longer term adaptation. HEA data has already been collected for large areas of Africa.

  20. Exploring the energy-water-food-climate nexus for the Indian Economy in 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taheripour, F.; Hertel, T. W.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.

    2014-12-01

    The economy of India is expected to face serious environmental challenges over the coming decades. Population growth, coupled with economic growth of nearly 7%/year to 2030 will translate into strong growth in energy demands - particularly electricity. The electricity sector's claim on total available water could grow from 4% to more than 10% in India in 2030, if the use of wet cooling technologies persists (IGES 2013). Water-saving, dry cooling technologies are available for coal-fired power plants, but this requires significant investment and must be done at the time of construction. Growing water demands from electricity generation, when coupled with industrial, residential and commercial demands, are projected to result in water shortages for irrigation in some key river basins such as Indus, Ganges, Subernarekha, Krishna, and Chotanagpui (Rosegrant et al., 2013). The resulting pressure on agricultural production is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, which itself may increase demands for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to higher temperatures and more variable rainfall (AgMIP, 2013). In this paper we examine the impact of water scarcity on economic growth, food, and energy security in India using an enhanced version of the GTAP-AEZ-WATER model. We find that investments in water-saving technology in the electricity sector are less costly than developing new water supply. However, even when these technologies are implemented, we project shortfalls in water available for irrigated agriculture. These shortfalls result in the contraction of irrigated area and diminished food production relative to the unconstrained baseline. However, trade could help India to mitigate a portion of this pressure by importing more food products from water abundant regions. In addition, allowing for the trading of water within river basins helps to alleviate some of the consequences of water scarcity.

  1. Evaluation of regulatory variation and theoretical health risk for pesticide maximum residue limits in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zijian

    2018-08-01

    To evaluate whether pesticide maximum residue limits (MRLs) can protect public health, a deterministic dietary risk assessment of maximum pesticide legal exposure was conducted to convert global MRLs to theoretical maximum dose intake (TMDI) values by estimating the average food intake rate and human body weight for each country. A total of 114 nations (58% of the total nations in the world) and two international organizations, including the European Union (EU) and Codex (WHO) have regulated at least one of the most currently used pesticides in at least one of the most consumed agricultural commodities. In this study, 14 of the most commonly used pesticides and 12 of the most commonly consumed agricultural commodities were identified and selected for analysis. A health risk analysis indicated that nearly 30% of the computed pesticide TMDI values were greater than the acceptable daily intake (ADI) values; however, many nations lack common pesticide MRLs in many commonly consumed foods and other human exposure pathways, such as soil, water, and air were not considered. Normality tests of the TMDI values set indicated that all distributions had a right skewness due to large TMDI clusters at the low end of the distribution, which were caused by some strict pesticide MRLs regulated by the EU (normally a default MRL of 0.01 mg/kg when essential data are missing). The Box-Cox transformation and optimal lambda (λ) were applied to these TMDI distributions, and normality tests of the transformed data set indicated that the power transformed TMDI values of at least eight pesticides presented a normal distribution. It was concluded that unifying strict pesticide MRLs by nations worldwide could significantly skew the distribution of TMDI values to the right, lower the legal exposure to pesticide, and effectively control human health risks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Legal Limits on Food Labelling Law: Comparative Analysis of the EU and the USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der E.L.

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to explore to what extent freedom of expression should protect food businesses against government intervention with corporate communications on food labels. A functional comparative method was used to analyse the objective. It was found that expression on food labels

  3. Limited Evidence That Competitive Food and Beverage Practices Affect Adolescent Consumption Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vericker, Tracy C.

    2013-01-01

    Childhood obesity is emerging as a considerable public health problem with no clear antidote. The school food environment is a potential intervention point for policy makers, with competitive food and beverage regulation as a possible policy lever. This research examines the link between competitive food and beverage availability in school and…

  4. Climate change, food systems and population health risks in their eco-social context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, A J; Butler, C D; Dixon, J

    2015-10-01

    The establishment of ecological public health as crucial to modern public health is overdue. While the basic concepts have been gestating for decades, receptivity within broader public health has been limited. This position is changing, not least as the population-level impacts of climate change and, more broadly, of limits to growth are emerging from theory and forecasting into daily reality. This paper describes several key elements of ecological public health thinking. These include the 'environmental' risks to human health (often systemic and disruptive, rather than local and toxic) posed by climate change and other forms of adverse global environmental change. Closer recognition of the links between social and environmental factors has been urged--an 'eco-social' approach--and, relatedly, for greater co-operation between social and natural sciences. The authors revisit critics of capitalism who foresaw the global capture and transformation of ecosystems for material human ends, and their resultant despoliation. The perennial call within public health to reduce vulnerability by lessening poverty is more important than ever, given the multifactored threat to the health of the poor which is anticipated, assuming no radical strategies to alleviate these pressures. But enhanced health security for the poor requires more than the reconfiguring of social determinants; it also requires, as the overarching frame, ecological public health. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Assessing the Potential and Limitations of Leveraging Food Sovereignty to Improve Human Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Andrew D; Fink Shapiro, Lilly; Wilson, Mark L

    2015-01-01

    Food sovereignty has been defined as "the right of peoples to healthy and culturally appropriate food produced through ecologically sound and sustainable methods, and their right to define their own food and agriculture systems." Human health is an implied component of this definition through the principle of healthy food. In fact, improved human health is commonly cited as a benefit of transforming food production away from the dominant practices of industrial agriculture. Yet, does the use of "ecologically sound and sustainable methods" of food production necessarily translate into better human health outcomes? Does greater choice in defining an agricultural or food system create gains in health and well-being? We elucidate the conceptual linkages between food sovereignty and human health, critically examine the empirical evidence supporting or refuting these linkages, and identify research gaps and key priorities for the food sovereignty-human health research agenda. Five domains of food sovereignty are discussed including: (1) use of agroecological management practices for food production, (2) the localization of food production and consumption, (3) promotion of social justice and equity, (4) valuation of traditional knowledge, and (5) the transformation of economic and political institutions and structures to support self-determination. We find that although there are many plausible linkages between food sovereignty and human health, the empirical evidence in support of the hypothesis that increasing food sovereignty yields improvements to human health is weak. We propose that a concerted effort to generate new empirical evidence on the health implications of these domains of food sovereignty is urgently needed, and suggest areas of research that may be crucial for addressing the gaps in the evidence base.

  6. Estimating effects of tidal power projects and climate change on threatened and endangered marine species and their food web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, D Shallin; Greene, Correigh M; Good, Thomas P

    2013-12-01

    Marine hydrokinetic power projects will operate as marine environments change in response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We considered how tidal power development and stressors resulting from climate change may affect Puget Sound species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and their food web. We used risk tables to assess the singular and combined effects of tidal power development and climate change. Tidal power development and climate change posed risks to ESA-listed species, and risk increased with incorporation of the effects of these stressors on predators and prey of ESA-listed species. In contrast, results of a model of strikes on ESA-listed species from turbine blades suggested that few ESA-listed species are likely to be killed by a commercial-scale tidal turbine array. We applied scenarios to a food web model of Puget Sound to explore the effects of tidal power and climate change on ESA-listed species using more quantitative analytical techniques. To simulate development of tidal power, we applied results of the blade strike model. To simulate environmental changes over the next 50 years, we applied scenarios of change in primary production, plankton community structure, dissolved oxygen, ocean acidification, and freshwater flooding events. No effects of tidal power development on ESA-listed species were detected from the food web model output, but the effects of climate change on them and other members of the food web were large. Our analyses exemplify how natural resource managers might assess environmental effects of marine technologies in ways that explicitly incorporate climate change and consider multiple ESA-listed species in the context of their ecological community. Estimación de los Efectos de Proyectos de Energía de las Mareas y el Cambio Climático sobre Especies Marinas Amenazadas y en Peligro y su Red Alimentaria. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

  7. Limitations of climatic data for inferring species boundaries: insights from speckled rattlesnakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse M Meik

    Full Text Available Phenotypes, DNA, and measures of ecological differences are widely used in species delimitation. Although rarely defined in such studies, ecological divergence is almost always approximated using multivariate climatic data associated with sets of specimens (i.e., the "climatic niche"; the justification for this approach is that species-specific climatic envelopes act as surrogates for physiological tolerances. Using identical statistical procedures, we evaluated the usefulness and validity of the climate-as-proxy assumption by comparing performance of genetic (nDNA SNPs and mitochondrial DNA, phenotypic, and climatic data for objective species delimitation in the speckled rattlesnake (Crotalus mitchellii complex. Ordination and clustering patterns were largely congruent among intrinsic (heritable traits (nDNA, mtDNA, phenotype, and discordance is explained by biological processes (e.g., ontogeny, hybridization. In contrast, climatic data did not produce biologically meaningful clusters that were congruent with any intrinsic dataset, but rather corresponded to regional differences in atmospheric circulation and climate, indicating an absence of inherent taxonomic signal in these data. Surrogating climate for physiological tolerances adds artificial weight to evidence of species boundaries, as these data are irrelevant for that purpose. Based on the evidence from congruent clustering of intrinsic datasets, we recommend that three subspecies of C. mitchellii be recognized as species: C. angelensis, C. mitchellii, and C. Pyrrhus.

  8. The Dragons of Inaction: Psychological Barriers That Limit Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Most people think climate change and sustainability are important problems, but too few global citizens engaged in high-greenhouse-gas-emitting behavior are engaged in enough mitigating behavior to stem the increasing flow of greenhouse gases and other environmental problems. Why is that? Structural barriers such as a climate-averse infrastructure…

  9. Climate and soils of the South Kinangop Plateau of Kenya : their limitations on land use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nyandat, N.N.

    1984-01-01

    In the Kinangop Plateau of Kenya where small holder farmers have been settled, varied climate and soils occur and the level of land use and management is not as high as may be expected. The climate and soils were therefore studied with a view to identity the constraints they present to land use and

  10. Hydrology of a Water‐Limited Forest under Climate Change Scenarios: The Case of the Caatinga Biome, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everton Alves Rodrigues Pinheiro

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Given the strong interactions between climate and vegetation, climate change effects on natural and agricultural ecosystems are common objects of research. Reduced water availability is predicted to take place across large regions of the globe, including Northeastern Brazil. The Caatinga, a complex tropical water‐limited ecosystem and the only exclusively Brazilian biome, prevails as the main natural forest of this region. The aim of this study was to examine the soil‐water balance for this biome under a climate‐warming scenario and with reduced rainfall. Climate change projections were assessed from regional circulation models earlier applied to the Brazilian territory. A statistical climate data generator was used to compose a synthetic weather dataset, which was later integrated into a hydrological model. Compared to simulations with current climate for the same site, under the scenario with climate change, transpiration was enhanced by 36%, and soilwater evaporation and interception were reduced by 16% and 34%, respectively. The greatest change in soil‐water components was observed for deep drainage, accounting only for 2% of the annual rainfall. Soil‐plant‐atmosphere fluxes seem to be controlled by the top layer (0.0-0.2 m, which provides 80% of the total transpiration, suggesting that the Caatinga forest may become completely soil‐water pulse dominated under scenarios of reduced water availability.

  11. Social Responsibility, Business Strategy and Development: The Case of Grameen-Danone Foods Limited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ghalib

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the phenomenon of Social Business Enterprises (SBEs and gain anunderstanding of their nature, operations, objectives and implications by using Grameen Danone FoodsLimited (GDFL as an illustration. Within this context, some questions that this paper seeks to explore are: isthe concept of Social Businesses just another ‘fashionable business marketing fad’ that will fade and witherwith time, or does it offer a real workable solution to cure the ills of global poverty? The paper seeks toinvestigate, with Grameen Danone’s case, if, how and to what extent such social businesses help towardssocial and economic uplift of the poor by simultaneously being both suppliers and consumers of theirservices. The case of GDFL is evaluated critically and compared analytically with similar social businesses inthe dairy business sector, in order to gauge its impact on local communities, especially on the target market –malnourished children. Finally, project sustainability is discussed along with consequences of a possiblecommercial scale-up in operations.

  12. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  13. 21 CFR 864.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 864.9 Section 864.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES HEMATOLOGY AND PATHOLOGY...

  14. 21 CFR 874.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 874.9 Section 874.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510(k) of the...

  15. 21 CFR 878.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 878.9 Section 878.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG..., and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510...

  16. 21 CFR 870.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 870.9 Section 870.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510(k) of the...

  17. 21 CFR 884.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 884.9 Section 884.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG..., and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510...

  18. 21 CFR 868.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 868.9 Section 868.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510(k) of the...

  19. 21 CFR 876.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 876.9 Section 876.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG..., and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510...

  20. By how much would limiting TV food advertising reduce childhood obesity?

    OpenAIRE

    Veerman, J. Lennert; Van Beeck, Eduard F.; Barendregt, Jan J.; Mackenbach, Johan P.

    2009-01-01

    Background: There is evidence suggesting that food advertising causes childhood obesity. The strength of this effect is unclear. To inform decisions on whether to restrict advertising opportunities, we estimate how much of the childhood obesity prevalence is attributable to food advertising on television (TV). Methods: We constructed a mathematical simulation model to estimate the potential effects of reducing the exposure of 6- to 12-year-old US children to TV advertising for food on the pre...

  1. Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhter Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is set to be particularly disruptive in poor agricultural communities. We assess the factors influencing farmers’ choice of climate change adaptation practices and associated impacts on household food security and poverty in Pakistan using comprehensive data from 950 farmers from its major provinces. A probit model was used to investigate the factors influencing the use of climate-change adaptation practices; the censored least absolute deviation (CLAD was used to analyze the determinants of the number of adaptation practices used; and a propensity score matching (PSM approach was employed to evaluate the impact of adaptation practices on food security and poverty levels. Adjustment in sowing time (22% households, use of drought tolerant varieties (15% and shifting to new crops (25% were the three major adaptation practices used by farmers in the study area. Results show that younger farmers and farmers with higher levels of education are more likely to use these adaptation practices, as do farmers that are wealthier, farm more land and have joint families. The number of adaptation practices used was found to be positively associated with education, male household heads, land size, household size, extension services, access to credit and wealth. Farmers adopting more adaptation practices had higher food security levels (8–13% than those who did not, and experienced lower levels of poverty (3–6%. Climate change adaptation practices at farm level can thereby have significant development outcomes in addition to reducing exposure to weather risks.

  2. Black Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet and food security. Bio-climate Scenarios in bananas under the effect of climate change in Ciego de Avila, Cuba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hernández-Mansilla Alexis Augusto

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The negative evidence of climate change of high importance for the future agricultural production and the need of food sovereignty and security, impose to develop research to predict the phenology of plants and their pests, mainly those of economic importance. The aim of this work is to interpret the epidemiological behavior of the black Sigatoka disease (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet in banana for the years 2020 and 2025 under the effects of climate change in Ciego de Avila. There were made bioclimatic scenarios using daily data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall of 14 days generated by the Regional Climatic Model "PRECIS Caribbean" with boundary conditions of the global model ECHAM - 4 for future climate projections under scenarios of emission A2 and B2. The key indicators of this disease: "Sum of Speed ​​" and the "Evolution state" of 4 leaves were obtained. The results show Sums speeds above 11000 thermo-physiological units, as well as a continuous and progressive increase in the "Evolution State" with values above 500 units during the analyzed years. We infers will occur an increase in the number of treatments and the plant protection cost, which implies the need to draw integrated management measures that include agro-ecological principles, search for resistant varieties to replace those susceptible to the disease that are currently used and strengthen the climate change adaptation and the resilience in the agricultural ecosystem.

  3. Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Security in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saloua Rochdane

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This work analyzes satellite and socioeconomic data to explore the relationship between food and wood demand and supply, expressed in terms of net primary production (NPP, in Morocco. A vulnerability index is defined as the ratio of demand to supply as influenced by population, affluence, technology and climate indicators. The present situation (1995–2007, as well as projections of demand and supply, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Scenarios A2 and B2, are analyzed for a 2025 horizon. We find that the food NPP demand increased by 34.5%, whereas the wood consumption NPP demand decreased by 19.3% between 1995 and 2007. The annual NPP required to support the population’s food and wood appropriation was 29.73 million tons of carbon (MTC in 2007, while the landscape NPP production for the same year was 60.24 MTC; indicating that the population appropriates about 50% of the total NPP resources. Both scenarios show increases in demand and decreases in supply. Under A2, it would take more than 1.25 years for terrestrial ecosystems in Morocco to produce the NPP appropriated by populations in one year. This number is 0.70 years under B2. This already high vulnerability for food and wood products is likely to be exacerbated with climate changes and population increase.

  4. Plant responses, climate pivot points, and trade-offs in water-limited ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, S. M.; Bunting, E.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem transitions and thresholds are conceptually well-defined and have become a framework to address vegetation response to climate change and land-use intensification, yet there are few approaches to define the environmental conditions which can lead to them. We demonstrate a novel climate pivot point approach using long-term monitoring data from a broad network of permanent plots, satellite imagery, and experimental treatments across the southwestern U.S. The climate pivot point identifies conditions that lead to decreased plant performance and serves as an early warning sign of increased vulnerability of crossing a threshold into an altered ecosystem state. Plant responses and climate pivot points aligned with the lifespan and structural characteristics of species, were modified by soil and landscape attributes of a site, and had non-linear dynamics in some cases. Species with strong increases in abundance when water was available were most susceptible to losses during water shortages, reinforcing plant energetic and physiological tradeoffs. Future research to uncover the heterogeneity of plant responses and climate pivot points at multiple scales can lead to greater understanding of shifts in ecosystem productivity and vulnerability to climate change.

  5. Persistent palatable food preference in rats with a history of limited and extended access to methamphetamine self-administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caprioli, Daniele; Zeric, Tamara; Thorndike, Eric B; Venniro, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that when given a mutually exclusive choice between cocaine and palatable foods most rats prefer the non-drug rewards over cocaine. Here, we used a discrete choice procedure to assess whether palatable food preference generalizes to rats with a history of limited (3 hr/day) or extended (6 or 9 hr/day) access to methamphetamine self-administration. On different daily sessions, we trained rats to lever-press for either methamphetamine (0.1–0.2 mg/kg/infusion) or palatable food (5 pellets per reward delivery) for several weeks; regular food was freely available. We then assessed food-methamphetamine preference either during training, after priming methamphetamine injections (0.5–1.0 mg/kg), following a satiety manipulation (palatable food exposure in the home cage), or after 21 days of withdrawal from methamphetamine. We also assessed progressive ratio responding for palatable food and methamphetamine. We found that independent of the daily drug access conditions and the withdrawal period, the rats strongly preferred the palatable food over methamphetamine, even when they were given free access to the palatable food in the home cage. Intake of methamphetamine and progressive ratio responding for the drug, both of which increased or escalated over time, did not predict preference in the discrete choice test. Results demonstrate that most rats strongly prefer palatable food pellets over intravenous methamphetamine, confirming previous studies using discrete choice procedures with intravenous cocaine. Results also demonstrate that escalation of drug self-administration, a popular model of compulsive drug use, is not associated with a cardinal feature of human addiction of reduced behavioral responding for non-drug rewards. PMID:25582886

  6. Persistent palatable food preference in rats with a history of limited and extended access to methamphetamine self-administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caprioli, Daniele; Zeric, Tamara; Thorndike, Eric B; Venniro, Marco

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies have shown that when given a mutually exclusive choice between cocaine and palatable foods, most rats prefer the non-drug rewards over cocaine. Here, we used a discrete choice procedure to assess whether palatable food preference generalizes to rats with a history of limited (3 hours/day) or extended (6 or 9 hours/day) access to methamphetamine self-administration. On different daily sessions, we trained rats to lever-press for either methamphetamine (0.1-0.2 mg/kg/infusion) or palatable food (five pellets per reward delivery) for several weeks; regular food was freely available. We then assessed food-methamphetamine preference either during training, after priming methamphetamine injections (0.5-1.0 mg/kg), following a satiety manipulation (palatable food exposure in the home cage) or after 21 days of withdrawal from methamphetamine. We also assessed progressive ratio responding for palatable food and methamphetamine. We found that independent of the daily drug access conditions and the withdrawal period, the rats strongly preferred the palatable food over methamphetamine, even when they were given free access to the palatable food in the home cage. Intake of methamphetamine and progressive ratio responding for the drug, both of which increased or escalated over time, did not predict preference in the discrete choice test. Results demonstrate that most rats strongly prefer palatable food pellets over intravenous methamphetamine, confirming previous studies using discrete choice procedures with intravenous cocaine. Results also demonstrate that escalation of drug self-administration, a popular model of compulsive drug use, is not associated with a cardinal feature of human addiction of reduced behavioral responding for non-drug rewards. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Functional Limitations, Depression, and Cash Assistance are Associated with Food Insecurity among Older Urban Adults in Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilar-Compte, Mireya; Martínez-Martínez, Oscar; Orta-Alemán, Dania; Perez-Escamilla, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    To examine factors associated with food insecurity among urban older adults (65 years and older). Three hundred and fifty two older adults attending community centers in a neighborhood of Mexico City were surveyed for food insecurity, functional impairments, health and mental health status, cash-transfer assistance, socio-demographic characteristics, social isolation, and the built food environment. Having at least primary education and receiving cash-transfers were significantly associated with a lower probability of being moderately-severely food insecure (OR=0.478 and 0.597, respectively). The probability of moderate-severe food insecurity was significantly higher among elderly at risk of depression (OR=2.843), those with at least one activity of daily living impaired (OR=2.177) and those with at least one instrumental activity of daily living impaired (OR=1.785). Higher educational attainment and cash-transfers may have a positive influence on reducing food insecurity. Depression and functional limitations may increase the likelihood of food insecurity among older adults.

  8. Soil erosion, climate change and global food security: challenges and strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    supply fails, global agriculture fails too, with obvious consequences. Accordingly, on grounds of stabilising the climate, preserving the environment, and ensuring the robustness of the global food supply, maintaining and building good soil, in particular improving its SOM content and hence its structure, is highly desirable. Those regions of the world that are significantly degraded are unlikely to support a massive population increase (e.g. Africa, whose population is predicted to grow from its present 1.1 billion to 4.2 billion by 2100), in which case a die-off or mass migration might be expected, if population control is not included explicitly in future plans to achieve food security.

  9. Predator-dependent functional response in wolves: from food limitation to surplus killing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Barbara; Sand, Håkan; Wabakken, Petter; Liberg, Olof; Andreassen, Harry Peter

    2015-01-01

    The functional response of a predator describes the change in per capita kill rate to changes in prey density. This response can be influenced by predator densities, giving a predator-dependent functional response. In social carnivores which defend a territory, kill rates also depend on the individual energetic requirements of group members and their contribution to the kill rate. This study aims to provide empirical data for the functional response of wolves Canis lupus to the highly managed moose Alces alces population in Scandinavia. We explored prey and predator dependence, and how the functional response relates to the energetic requirements of wolf packs. Winter kill rates of GPS-collared wolves and densities of cervids were estimated for a total of 22 study periods in 15 wolf territories. The adult wolves were identified as the individuals responsible for providing kills to the wolf pack, while pups could be described as inept hunters. The predator-dependent, asymptotic functional response models (i.e. Hassell-Varley type II and Crowley-Martin) performed best among a set of 23 competing linear, asymptotic and sigmoid models. Small wolf packs acquired >3 times as much moose biomass as required to sustain their field metabolic rate (FMR), even at relatively low moose abundances. Large packs (6-9 wolves) acquired less biomass than required in territories with low moose abundance. We suggest the surplus killing by small packs is a result of an optimal foraging strategy to consume only the most nutritious parts of easy accessible prey while avoiding the risk of being detected by humans. Food limitation may have a stabilizing effect on pack size in wolves, as supported by the observed negative relationship between body weight of pups and pack size. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  10. A solar cooling system for greenhouse food production in hot climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, P.A. [School of Engineering, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom)

    2005-12-01

    This study is motivated by the difficulty of cultivating crops in very hot countries and by the tendency for some such countries to become dependent on imported food. Liquid desiccation with solar regeneration is considered as maintained at or above room temperature, and this was confirgreenhouses. Previous studies demonstrated the technical feasibility of the desiccation-evaporation process, but mainly in the context of human dwellings. In the proposed cycle, the air is dried prior to entering the evaporative cooler. This lowers the wet-bulb temperature of the air. The cooling is assisted by using the regenerator to partially shade the greenhouse. The heat of desiccation is transferred and rejected at the outlet of the greenhouse. The cycle is analysed and results given for the climate of the The Gulf, based on weather data from Abu Dhabi. Taking examples of a temperate crop (lettuce), a tropical crop (tomato) and a tropical crop resistant to high temperatures (cucumber) we estimate the extension in growing seasons relative to (i) a greenhouse with simple fan ventilation (ii) a greenhouse with conventional evaporative cooling. Compared to option (ii), the proposed system lowers summers maximum temperatures by 5{sup o}C. This will extend the optimum season for lettuce cultivation from 3 to 6 months of the year and, for tomato and cucumber, from 7 months to the whole year. (author)

  11. Energy analysis of alternative CO2 refrigeration system configurations for retail food applications in moderate and warm climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsamos, K.M.; Ge, Y.T.; Santosa, IDewa; Tassou, S.A.; Bianchi, G.; Mylona, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Alternative CO 2 refrigeration technologies are compared for temperate and warm climates. • The CO 2 booster system with parallel compression was found to be the most energy efficient system. • Parallel compression can offer efficiency advantages of 3.6% in moderate and 5.0% in warm climates. • Parallel compression in booster CO 2 systems is economically attractive in warm climates. - Abstract: Refrigeration systems are crucial in retail food stores to ensure appropriate merchandising of food products. This paper compares four different CO 2 refrigeration system configurations in terms of cooling performance, environmental impact, power consumption and annual running costs. The systems studied were the conventional booster refrigeration system with gas bypass (reference system), the all CO 2 cascade system with gas bypass, a booster system with a gas bypass compressor, and integrated cascade all CO 2 system with gas bypass compressor. The weather conditions of London, UK, and Athens, Greece, were used for the modelling of energy consumption and environmental impacts to represent moderate and warm climatic conditions respectively. The control strategies for the refrigeration systems were derived from experimental tests in the laboratory on a conventional booster refrigeration system. The results from the analysis showed that the CO 2 booster system with gas bypass compressor can provide best performance with 5.0% energy savings for the warm climate and 3.65% for the moderate climate, followed by the integrated cascade all CO 2 system with gas bypass compressor, with 3.6% and 2.1% savings over the reference system for the warm and moderate climates respectively.

  12. The limit of irrigation adaption due to the inter-crop conflict of water use under changing climate and landuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Sakamoto, T.; Kotoku, M.; Sakurai, G.; Nishimori, M.

    2017-12-01

    Replacing rainfed cropping system by irrigated one is assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation in agriculture. However, in many agricultural impact assessments, future irrigation scenarios are externally given and do not consider variations in the availability of irrigation water under changing climate and land use. Therefore, we assess the potential effects of adaption measure expanding irrigated area under climate change by using a large-scale crop-river coupled model, CROVER [Okada et al. 2015, JAMES]. The CROVER model simulates the large-scale terrestrial hydrological cycle and crop growth depending on climate, soil properties, landuse, crop cultivation management, socio-economic water demand, and reservoir operation management. The bias-corrected GCMs outputs under the RCP 8.5 scenario were used. The future expansion of irrigation area was estimated by using the extrapolation method based on the historical change in irrigated and rainfed areas. As the results, the irrigation adaptation has only a limited effect on the rice production in East Asia due to the conflict of water use for irrigation with the other crops, whose farmlands require unsustainable water extraction with the excessively expanding irrigated area. In contrast, the irrigation adaptation benefits maize production in Europe due to the little conflict of water use for irrigation. Our findings suggest the importance of simulating the river water availability and crop production in a single model for the more realistic assessment in the irrigation adaptation potential effects of crop production under changing climate and land use.

  13. Latitudinal variation in avian incubation attentiveness and a test of the food limitation hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalfoun, A.D.; Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    Avian incubation attentiveness has important fitness consequences through its influence on the number and quality of hatched young and energetic costs imposed on parents. Nest attentiveness is highly variable across species and geographical regions. We reviewed the literature and found a worldwide pattern that nest attentiveness of passerines is generally lower in south temperate and tropical regions than in north temperate regions. We also conducted a food manipulation experiment to assess the extent to which nest attentiveness may reflect proximate responses versus an evolved behaviour. We used the karoo prinia, Prinia maculosa, in South Africa, which has very low nest attentiveness (???49%) compared with that of many passerine birds. We provided supplemental food during early incubation to experimental females and compared nest attentiveness and on- and off-bout lengths of experimental and paired control females.??Nest attentiveness of females at food-provisioned nests was significantly higher than that of control females (57% versus 49%). Food-supplemented females also spent significantly less time off the nest than did control females, whereas mean on-bout lengths did not differ. However, mean nest attentiveness of food-provisioned females was still substantially below that of other similar bird species worldwide. Food can be an important proximate influence on parental care behaviour, but proximate influences of food do not explain broad latitudinal patterns of attentiveness. ?? 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

  14. [Food addiction: Definition, measurement and limits of the concept, associated factors, therapeutic and clinical implications].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cathelain, Sarah; Brunault, Paul; Ballon, Nicolas; Réveillère, Christian; Courtois, Robert

    2016-12-01

    Addictions, which are characterized by the inability to control a behavior despite existence of physical or psychological consequences, have biological, psychological and social determinants. Although the possibility of developing an addiction to some psychoactive substances (e.g. alcohol, tobacco, cannabis) and to gambling (i.e., gambling disorder) is now well demonstrated, the possibility to develop a non-drug addiction (i.e., behavioral addiction) to certain behaviors which provide pleasure (e.g. eating, having sex, buying things) is still in debate. The concept of food addiction, which refers to people who exhibit substance dependence criteria in relation to some high-fat and high-sugar foods, was recently proposed by applying substance dependence DSM criteria to eating behavior. To assess food addiction, the Yale Food Addiction Scale is now the only self-administered questionnaire (diagnosis and estimate of the number of symptoms of food addiction). Prevalence for food addiction is higher in overweight and obese patients, and in patients with certain psychopathological characteristics (i.e., depression, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, high impulsivity), in patients who are single and in patients with neurobiological alterations in the reward system. However, it is still unclear whether food addiction is necessary associated with subsequent increase in body weight and/or obesity. An increasing number of studies demonstrated that drug addiction and food addiction shares some similar clinical, neurobiological and psychopathological and sociocultural risk factors. To test the pertinence to include food addiction as an addiction, it would be interesting to conduct future studies in patients who may experience harms related to their food addiction, including not only patients with obesity, but also patients with metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, atherosclerosis, stroke, or coronary heart disease. Food addiction is a clinical

  15. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V; Aschan, Michaela

    2015-09-07

    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. © 2015 The Authors.

  16. Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Olesen, J E; Naustvoll, L-J; Friocourt, Y; Mengelers, M J B; Christensen, J H

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal grains cultivated in the terrestrial area of north west Europe, and on the frequency of harmful algal blooms and contamination of shellfish with marine biotoxins in the North Sea coastal zone. The study focused on contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol, and on abundance of Dinophysis spp. and the possible relationship with diarrhetic shellfish toxins. The study used currently available data and models. Global and regional climate models were combined with models of crop phenology, mycotoxin prediction models, hydrodynamic models and ecological models, with the output of one model being used as input for the other. In addition, statistical data analyses using existing national datasets from the study area were performed to obtain information on the relationships between Dinophysis spp. cell counts and contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins as well as on frequency of cereal cropping. In this paper, a summary of the study is presented, and overall conclusions and recommendations are given. Climate change projections for the years 2031-2050 were used as the starting point of the analyses relative to a preceding 20-year baseline period from which the climate change signal was calculated. Results showed that, in general, climate change effects lead to advanced flowering and harvest of wheat, and increased risk of contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol. Blooms of dinoflagellates were estimated to occur more often. If the group of Dinophysis spp. behaves similarly to other flagellates in the future then frequency of harmful algal blooms of Dinophysis spp. may also increase, but consequences for contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish

  17. Prey vulnerability limits top-down control and alters reciprocal feedbacks in a subsidized model food web.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William I Atlas

    Full Text Available Resource subsidies increase the productivity of recipient food webs and can affect ecosystem dynamics. Subsidies of prey often support elevated predator biomass which may intensify top-down control and reduce the flow of reciprocal subsidies into adjacent ecosystems. However, top-down control in subsidized food webs may be limited if primary consumers posses morphological or behavioral traits that limit vulnerability to predation. In forested streams, terrestrial prey support high predator biomass creating the potential for strong top-down control, however armored primary consumers often dominate the invertebrate assemblage. Using empirically based simulation models, we tested the response of stream food webs to variations in subsidy magnitude, prey vulnerability, and the presence of two top predators. While terrestrial prey inputs increased predator biomass (+12%, the presence of armored primary consumers inhibited top-down control, and diverted most aquatic energy (∼75% into the riparian forest through aquatic insect emergence. Food webs without armored invertebrates experienced strong trophic cascades, resulting in higher algal (∼50% and detrital (∼1600% biomass, and reduced insect emergence (-90%. These results suggest prey vulnerability can mediate food web responses to subsidies, and that top-down control can be arrested even when predator-invulnerable consumers are uncommon (20% regardless of the level of subsidy.

  18. Climate Change and Agriculture: Can market governance mechanisms reduce emissions from the food system fairly and effectively?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garnett, Tara

    2012-05-15

    Climate and agriculture are inextricably linked: the climate affects agricultural production and is itself affected by agricultural emissions. Agriculture is responsible for 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. How agriculture is practised therefore has significant potential for mitigating climate change, for providing food security and for improving the livelihoods of millions of food producers worldwide. There is growing interest in the use of market governance mechanisms for tackling climate change by giving the financial incentives to make the kinds of changes that are required. But how widely are these mechanisms being used in agriculture, and are they effective in reducing emissions? What impact do they have on adaptation and other aspects of sustainable development? Are they able to balance the competing demands of producers and consumers, the environment and food security? The key messages emerging from this study are that economic measures have a vital part to play within this regulatory context, but they need to be designed with care. To be effective, emissions from food production and consumption must be addressed together. If not, emissions reduced in one region will simply be displaced elsewhere. A balance needs to be struck by applying a mix of approaches – regulatory, economic, voluntary, and information: no single measure will be effective in achieving emissions reductions on its own. 'Soft' measures, such as voluntary agreements and information have a part to play in providing an enabling context for action, but they must be backed up by 'harder' regulatory or economic measures. Regulation, in the form of a cap on emissions, is a prerequisite for other market governance measures to function well. To be effective, MGMs need to consider the social, cultural and economic context within which they operate.

  19. The Effects of Supplementary Food on the Breeding Performance of Eurasian Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus; Implications for Climate Change Impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James O Vafidis

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms by which climate variation can drive population changes requires information linking climate, local conditions, trophic resources, behaviour and demography. Climate change alters the seasonal pattern of emergence and abundance of invertebrate populations, which may have important consequences for the breeding performance and population change of insectivorous birds. In this study, we examine the role of food availability in driving behavioural changes in an insectivorous migratory songbird; the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. We use a feeding experiment to examine the effect of increased food supply on different components of breeding behaviour and first-brood productivity, over three breeding seasons (2012-2014. Reed warblers respond to food-supplementation by advancing their laying date by up to 5.6 days. Incubation periods are shorter in supplemented groups during the warmest mean spring temperatures. Nestling growth rates are increased in nests provisioned by supplemented parents. In addition, nest predation is reduced, possibly because supplemented adults spend more time at the nest and faster nestling growth reduces the period of vulnerability of eggs and nestlings to predators (and brood parasites. The net effect of these changes is to advance the fledging completion date and to increase the overall productivity of the first brood for supplemented birds. European populations of reed warblers are currently increasing; our results suggest that advancing spring phenology, leading to increased food availability early in the breeding season, could account for this change by facilitating higher productivity. Furthermore, the earlier brood completion potentially allows multiple breeding attempts. This study identifies the likely trophic and behavioural mechanisms by which climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology and abundance may lead to changes in breeding phenology, nest survival and net

  20. Gluten-Free Foods in Rural Maritime Provinces: Limited Availability, High Price, and Low Iron Content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Jennifer A; Gougeon, Laura

    2017-12-01

    We investigated the price difference between gluten-free (GF) and gluten-containing (GC) foods available in rural Maritime stores. GF foods and comparable GC items were sampled through random visits to 21 grocery stores in nonurban areas of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, Canada. Wilcoxon rank tests were conducted on price per 100 g of product, and on the price relative to iron content; 2226 GF foods (27.2% staple items, defined as breads, cereals, flours, and pastas) and 1625 GC foods were sampled, with an average ± SD of 66 ± 2.7 GF items per store in rural areas and 331 ± 12 in towns. The median price of GF items ($1.76/100 g) was more expensive than GC counterparts ($1.05/100 g) and iron density was approximately 50% less. GF staple foods were priced 5% higher in rural stores than in town stores. Although the variety of GF products available to consumers has improved, higher cost and lower nutrient density remain issues in nonurban Maritime regions. Dietitians working in nonurban areas should consider the relative high price, difficult access, and low iron density of key GF items, and work together with clients to find alternatives and enhance their food literacy.

  1. Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabien H. Wagner; Bruno Herault; Damien Bonal; Clement Stahl; Liana O. Anderson; Timothy R. Baker; Gabriel Sebastian Becker; Hans Beeckman; Danilo Boanerges Souza; Paulo Cesar Botosso; David M. J. S. Bowman; Achim Brauning; Benjamin Brede; Foster Irving Brown; Jesus Julio Camarero; Plinio Barbosa Camargo; Fernanda C. G. Cardoso; Fabricio Alvim Carvalho; Wendeson Castro; Rubens Koloski Chagas; Jerome Chave; Emmanuel N. Chidumayo; Deborah A. Clark; Flavia Regina Capellotto Costa; Camille Couralet; Paulo Henrique da Silva Mauricio; Helmut Dalitz; Vinicius Resende de Castro; Jacanan Eloisa de Freitas Milani; Edilson Consuelo de Oliveira; Luciano de Souza Arruda; Jean-Louis Devineau; David M. Drew; Oliver Dunisch; Giselda Durigan; Elisha Elifuraha; Marcio Fedele; Ligia Ferreira Fedele; Afonso Figueiredo Filho; Cesar Augusto Guimaraes Finger; Augusto Cesar Franco; Joao Lima Freitas Junior; Franklin Galvao; Aster Gebrekirstos; Robert Gliniars; Paulo Mauricio Lima de Alencastro Graca; Anthony D. Griffiths; James Grogan; Kaiyu Guan; Jurgen Homeier; Maria Raquel Kanieski; Lip Khoon Kho; Jennifer Koenig; Sintia Valerio Kohler; Julia Krepkowski; Jose Pires Lemos-Filho; Diana Lieberman; Milton Eugene Lieberman; Claudio Sergio Lisi; Tomaz Longhi Santos; Jose Luis Lopez Ayala; Eduardo Eijji Maeda; Yadvinder Malhi; Vivian R. B. Maria; Marcia C. M. Marques; Renato Marques; Hector Maza Chamba; Lawrence Mbwambo; Karina Liana Lisboa Melgaco; Hooz Angela Mendivelso; Brett P. Murphy; Joseph O' Brien; Steven F. Oberbauer; Naoki Okada; Raphael Pelissier; Lynda D. Prior; Fidel Alejandro Roig; Michael Ross; Davi Rodrigo Rossatto; Vivien Rossi; Lucy Rowland; Ervan Rutishauser; Hellen Santana; Mark Schulze; Diogo Selhorst; Williamar Rodrigues Silva; Marcos Silveira; Susanne Spannl; Michael D. Swaine; Jose Julio Toledo; Marcos Miranda Toledo; Marisol Toledo; Takeshi Toma; Mario Tomazello Filho; Juan Ignacio Valdez Hernandez; Jan Verbesselt; Simone Aparecida Vieira; Gregoire Vincent; Carolina Volkmer de Castilho; Franziska Volland; Martin Worbes; Magda Lea Bolzan Zanon; Luiz E. O. C. Aragao

    2016-01-01

    The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter...

  2. Scientific Data and Its Limits: Rethinking the Use of Evidence in Local Climate Change Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren

    2014-01-01

    Climate policy is typically seen as informed by scientific evidence that anthropogenic carbon emissions require reducing in order to avoid dangerous consequences. However, agreement on these matters has not translated into effective policy. Using interviews with local authority officials in the UK's East Midlands region, this paper argues that the…

  3. Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagner, Fabien H.; Hérault, Bruno; Bonal, Damien; Stahl, Clément; Anderson, Liana O.; Baker, Timothy R.; Becker, Gabriel Sebastian; Beeckman, Hans; Boanerges Souza, Danilo; Botosso, Paulo Cesar; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Bräuning, Achim; Brede, Benjamin; Brown, Foster Irving; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Cardoso, Fernanda C.G.; Carvalho, Fabrício Alvim; Castro, Wendeson; Chagas, Rubens Koloski; Chave, Jérome; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Clark, Deborah A.; Costa, Flavia Regina Capellotto; Couralet, Camille; Silva Mauricio, Da Paulo Henrique; Dalitz, Helmut; Castro, De Vinicius Resende; Freitas Milani, De Jaçanan Eloisa; Oliveira, De Edilson Consuelo; Souza Arruda, De Luciano; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Drew, David M.; Dünisch, Oliver; Durigan, Giselda; Elifuraha, Elisha; Fedele, Marcio; Ferreira Fedele, Ligia; Figueiredo Filho, Afonso; Finger, César Augusto Guimarães; Franco, Augusto César; Freitas Júnior, João Lima; Galvão, Franklin; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Gliniars, Robert; Lima De Alencastro Graça, Paulo Maurício; Griffiths, Anthony D.; Grogan, James; Guan, Kaiyu; Homeier, Jürgen; Kanieski, Maria Raquel; Kho, Lip Khoon; Koenig, Jennifer; Kohler, Sintia Valerio; Krepkowski, Julia; Lemos-filho, José Pires; Lieberman, Diana; Lieberman, Milton Eugene; Lisi, Claudio Sergio; Longhi Santos, Tomaz; López Ayala, José Luis; Maeda, Eduardo Eijji; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maria, Vivian R.B.; Marques, Marcia C.M.; Marques, Renato; Maza Chamba, Hector; Mbwambo, Lawrence; Melgaço, Karina Liana Lisboa; Mendivelso, Hooz Angela; Murphy, Brett P.; O'Brien, Joseph J.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Okada, Naoki; Pélissier, Raphaël; Prior, Lynda D.; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Ross, Michael; Rossatto, Davi Rodrigo; Rossi, Vivien; Rowland, Lucy; Rutishauser, Ervan; Santana, Hellen; Schulze, Mark; Selhorst, Diogo; Silva, Williamar Rodrigues; Silveira, Marcos; Spannl, Susanne; Swaine, Michael D.; Toledo, José Julio; Toledo, Marcos Miranda; Toledo, Marisol; Toma, Takeshi; Tomazello Filho, Mario; Valdez Hernández, Juan Ignacio; Verbesselt, Jan; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Vincent, Grégoire; Volkmer De Castilho, Carolina; Volland, Franziska; Worbes, Martin; Zanon, Magda Lea Bolzan; Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.

    2016-01-01

    The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68

  4. To support growth, to limit emissions: is China a model in terms of climate policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voita, Thibault

    2012-05-01

    The objective of this paper is to discuss how China has been able to adapt its economic policy to the challenges of climate change without forgetting its final objective of economic growth for the country. The author first describes some characteristics of the Chinese decision political system in the field of industrial and energy policy towards a low carbon economy: articulation between central power and local authorities, and complexity of decision processes at the central level. The author then shows how this system has changed to integrate policies of struggle against climate change, used them as an opportunity towards a low carbon economy, and put them at the service of the national industrial policy. Then, based on several case studies of actual projects (electric vehicles, gas liquefaction, local energy policies), the author proposes an assessment of the system efficiency, and tries to see whether one can talk of a Chinese political model regarding the policy of struggle against climate change. He notably discusses the efficiency of these policies in terms of relationship between industrial independence and climate policy

  5. Future Water Scarcity and Potential Effects on Food Production under Climate Change in the Yellow River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Q.; Yin, Y. Y.; Liu, X.; Zhang, X.

    2016-12-01

    Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River Basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. In this study, we assess water scarcity under climate change and various socio-economic pathways with an emphasis on the impact of water shortages on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are projected under the new developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The renewable water supply is estimated from the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5. The agricultural water use is assumed to have the lowest priority of all water consumers when water shortage occurs. The results show that the water demands in domestic and industrial sectors would grow rapidly. As more water resources would be occupied by domestic and industrial sectors, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture which would lead to more than a reduction in food production under various socio-economic pathways. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

  6. Climate, Agroecology and Socio-Economic Determinants of Food Availability from Agriculture in Bangladesh, (1948–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanzidur Rahman

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the impacts of prices, resources, technology, education, public investments, climatic variables and agroecology on Food Availability (FA from domestic agriculture in Bangladesh using a panel data of 17 regions covering a 61-year period (1948–2008 by utilising a dynamic agricultural supply response framework and Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM estimator. Results revealed that FA has increased at the rate of 1.32% p.a. with significant regional variations. Significant regional differences exist with respect to climatic variables, resources, Green Revolution (GR technology and education. Among the output prices, rise in the prices of rice, vegetables and pulses significantly increase FA whereas an increase in spice price significantly reduces FA. Among the input prices, a rise in labour wage significantly increases FA. FA increases significantly with an increase in GR technology expansion, as expected. Among the resources, increases in average farm size and labour stock per farm significantly increase FA, as expected. Among the climatic factors, a rise in annual minimum temperature significantly increases FA. FA is also significantly influenced by agroecological characteristics. FA is significantly higher in Karatoa floodplain and Atrai Basin but significantly lower in Ganges Tidal floodplain. Major disasters/events (i.e., the Liberation War of 1971 and 1988 flood also significantly reduced FA, as expected. The key conclusion is that, over the past six decades, Food Availability in Bangladesh was significantly shaped by changes in climate, agrocology, output prices, resources and GR technology diffusion.

  7. Climate Agreements under Limited Participation, Asymmetric Information and market Imperfections - a summary of a Dr.polit. thesis -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagem, C

    1996-08-01

    This report summarizes the papers included as part of a doctoral thesis. It starts with the history of the greenhouse effect and proceeds with the international efforts to control man-made air pollution. In 1990 the UN established the Intergovernmental Negotiation Committee for Climate Change (INC), the task of which was to prepare the negotiations for the UN`s Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which came into force in 1994. The commitments of the signatories are not legally binding, quantitatively. The FCCC established a Conference of the Parties (COP) as the supreme body of the convention. Its first session was held in Berlin in 1995. The Berlin Mandate established a process that would enable the Parties to take actions for the period after 2000. A possible international climate agreement is often evaluated in terms of its efficiency or cost-effectiveness. Calculations are extremely complex and involve great uncertainties. Countries may not agree on the methods of calculation. There are several studies on cost-benefit analyses for controlling global warming, based on various simplifications. The thesis focuses on the cost-effectiveness of possible climate agreements and covers only CO{sub 2}. The implications of limited participation in a climate agreement are discussed. The design of a climate treaty should take into account how different policy instruments can be used to influence the emissions from non-participants. The final section discusses the impact on cost-effectiveness of a trade able quota system if some counties have market power. 59 refs.

  8. FOOD SECURITY IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu STANCIU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing world population, the limitation of the natural availability for food production, the climate issues and the food consumption need for modification imposed a continuous updating of the food security concept. Although Romania has sufficient natural resources, which may ensure, by means of proper exploitation, the population’s food needs, the lack of a unitary approach at the government level, materialized in the dependence on imports and in fluctuations in the agro-food production, leads to a re-evaluation of national food needs. National food security may be affected by a series of risks and threats, which appeared due to an imbalance connected with the availability, the utility and the stability of the agro-food sector, interdependent elements that must be functional. The present article proposes an analysis of food security in Romania, with a short presentation of the concept in an international context.

  9. Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Jiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T and available dissolved oxygen (DO that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1 °C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past (1961–2008 and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate.

  10. Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Déqué, Michel; Jones, R. G.; Wild, M.

    2005-01-01

    the 2071-2100 and the 1961-1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly......, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs - in particular in terms of precipitation - is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes...... errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs....

  11. The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLachlan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

  12. Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks Limit the Climate Response to Extremely Large Volcanic Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, D. C.; Vidal, C. M.; Keeble, J. M.; Griffiths, P. T.; Archibald, A. T.

    2017-12-01

    Explosive volcanic eruptions are a major cause of chemical and climatic perturbations to the atmosphere, injecting chemically and radiatively active species such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere. The rate determining step for sulfate aerosol production is SO2 + OH +M → HSO3 +M. This means that chemical feedbacks on the hydroxyl radical, OH, can modulate the production rate of sulfate aerosol and hence the climate effects of large volcanic eruptions. Radiative feedbacks due to aerosols, ozone and sulfur dioxide and subsequent dynamical changes also affect the evolution of the aerosol cloud. Here we assess the role of radiative and chemical feedbacks on sulfate aerosol production using UM-UKCA, a chemistry-climate model coupled to GLOMAP, a prognostic modal aerosol model. A 200 Tg (10x Pinatubo) emission scenario is investigated. Accounting for radiative feedbacks, the SO2 lifetime is 55 days compared to 26 days in the baseline 20 Tg (1x Pinatubo) simulation. By contrast, if all radiative feedbacks are neglected the lifetime is 73 days. Including radiative feedbacks reduces the SO2 lifetime: heating of the lower stratosphere by aerosol increases upwelling and increases transport of water vapour across the tropopause, increasing OH concentrations. The maximum effective radius of the aerosol particles increases from 1.09 µm to 1.34 µm as the production of aerosol is quicker. Larger and fewer aerosol particles are produced which are less effective at scattering shortwave radiation and will more quickly sediment from the stratosphere. As a result, the resulting climate cooling by the eruption will be less strong when accounting for these radiative feedbacks. We illustrate the consequences of these effects for the 1257 Samalas eruption, the largest common era volcanic eruption, using UM-UKCA in a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration. As a potentially halogen rich eruption, we investigate the differing ozone response to halogen-rich and halogen

  13. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  14. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  15. Impact of limited cognitive capacity and feelings of guilt and excuse on the endowment effects for hedonic and utilitarian types of food.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonides, G.; Cramer, L.

    2013-01-01

    Consumer food choices may partly be explained by the endowment effect. Here, we focus on the influence of limited cognitive capacity on loss aversion related to food choices. We also investigate the effects of anticipated feelings on food choices. Experiments with 1614 pupils of secondary schools

  16. Phylloplane bacteria increase the negative impact of food limitation on insect fitness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olson, Grant L.; Myers, Judith H.; Hemerik, Lia; Cory, Jenny S.

    2017-01-01

    1. When populations of herbivorous insects increase in density, they can alter the quantity or quality of their food. The impacts of diet-related stressors on insect fitness have been investigated singly, but not simultaneously. 2. Foliage quantity and quality of red alder, Alnus rubra, were

  17. Disease will limit future food supply from the global crustacean fishery and aquaculture sectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stentiford, G.D.; Neil, D.M.; Peeler, E.J.; Shields, J.D.; Small, H.J.; Flegel, T.W.; Vlak, J.M.; Jones, B.; Morado, F.; Moss, S.; Lotz, J.; Bartholomay, L.; Behringer, D.C.; Hauton, C.; Lightner, D.V.

    2012-01-01

    Seafood is a highly traded food commodity. Farmed and captured crustaceans contribute a significant proportion with annual production exceeding 10 M metric tonnes with first sale value of $40bn. The sector is dominated by farmed tropical marine shrimp, the fastest growing sector of the global

  18. Investigation of an outbreak of food poisoning in a resource-limited ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An acute onset of gastrointestinal symptoms among people who had attended and eaten at a burial ceremony generated a lot of public concern as indicated by subsequent media reports. We, therefore, set out to investigate this outbreak with the aim of assessing its magnitude and identifying the implicated food item.

  19. Exposure to a heat wave under food limitation makes an agricultural insecticide lethal: a mechanistic laboratory experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinh, Khuong Van; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2016-01-01

    Extreme temperatures and exposure to agricultural pesticides are becoming more frequent and intense under global change. Their combination may be especially problematic when animals suffer food limitation. We exposed Coenagrion puella damselfly larvae to a simulated heat wave combined with food...... limitation and subsequently to a widespread agricultural pesticide (chlorpyrifos) in an indoor laboratory experiment designed to obtain mechanistic insights in the direct effects of these stressors in isolation and when combined. The heat wave reduced immune function (activity of phenoloxidase, PO...... variables. While the immediate effects of the heat wave were subtle, our results indicate the importance of delayed effects in shaping the total fitness impact of a heat wave when followed by pesticide exposure. Firstly, the combination of delayed negative effects of the heat wave and starvation...

  20. Smallholder Food and Water Security in the Face of Climatic Stress and the Coffee Leaf Rust: Lessons from Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, I. T.; Bacon, C. M.; Sundstrom, W.

    2015-12-01

    Smallholder farmers in Nicaragua and throughout much of Central America preserve forest biodiversity and contribute to the sustainable production of coffee and other crops while, paradoxically, they themselves must cope with recurring periods of seasonal hunger. Smallholder food and water security in the region is affected by hurricanes, periodic drought events, climatic changes, an on-going outbreak of the coffee leaf rust, and fluctuations in food prices. Using regression analysis, our research examines what factors strengthened resilience to these hazards at the household level over the 1981 - 2014 time period. To this end, we integrate qualitative research on coping responses and local institutions, a participatory survey of 368 households, and an analysis of hydro-climatic data. Our results indicate that coping responses to the coffee leaf rust outbreak and the 2014 drought are comparable in severity to those used to endure Hurricane Mitch in 1998, and a severe 2009 drought. Higher smallholder resilience to stresses affecting food and water security is associated with larger farms, off-farm employment, more on-farm food production, higher numbers of fruit trees, and greater coffee harvests. Households that reported more severe coping responses to hazards earlier in the study period tended to be more strongly impacted by later hazards and reported generally greater seasonal hunger. Affiliation with local farmer-to-farmer institutions prioritizing either subsistence-oriented production or sales to international fair-trade markets did not correlate strongly with coping responses; however, subsistence-oriented institutions promote several resilience-enhancing practices. Lessons learned by adapting to past hazards may be used to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies for smallholders under continued climate variability and change.

  1. Limiting climate change verification of compliance with treaty commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions from forests and land use by remote sensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanchbery, J.; Salt, J.

    1993-01-01

    This report contains the results of a study of how to verify compliance with treaty commitments to limit anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The study concentrated on establishing methods of verifying compliance with the Framework Convention on Climate Change. In particular, it examined methods of monitoring commitments to limit anthropogenic emissions from forests, agriculture and waste (for example, landfill sites) rather than from fossil fuel burning, which has been the subject of other detailed studies. Verification of compliance with international agreements must be carried out at a national level, because nation states are the parties to such agreements and it is their compliance with their commitments that must be checked by any verification regime. Therefore, it is essential that any verification regime is able to measure the amount (preferably the mass) of greenhouse gas which is anthropogenically generated within each nation which is party to an agreement to limit emissions of them. Also, because gases disperse rapidly in the atmosphere, it is necessary to monitor emissions at their source. The first task in the study reported here was thus to identify emission sources. (orig.)

  2. Food consumption in ground beetles is limited under hypoxic conditions in response to ad libitum feeding, but not restricted feeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudowska, Agnieszka; Bauchinger, Ulf

    2018-02-09

    Habitats on land with low oxygen availability provide unique niches inhabited by numerous species. The occupation of such hypoxic niches by animals is hypothesized to come at a cost linked to the limitations of aerobic metabolism and thus energy budget but may also provide benefits through physical protection from predators and parasitoids or reduced competition for food. We investigated the effects of hypoxic conditions on standard metabolic rate (SMR) and specific dynamic action (SDA) in male Carabus nemoralis. SMR and SDA were determined under three manipulated oxygen availabilities: 7, 14 and 21% O 2 and two feeding regimes: limited or ad libitum food consumption. In both hypoxic conditions, C. nemoralis was able to maintain SMR at levels similar to those in normoxia. When the meal size was limited, SDA duration did not differ among the oxygen availability conditions, but SDA was smaller under hypoxic conditions than at normoxic levels. The relative cost of digestion was significantly higher in normoxia than in hypoxia, but it did not affect net energy intake. In contrast, when offered a large meal to simulate ad libitum food conditions, beetles reduced their food consumption and net energy gain by 30% under hypoxia. Oxygen availability may influence the consumed prey size: the hypoxic condition did not limit net energy gain when the beetles fed on a small meal but did when they fed on a large meal. The results indicate that meal size is an important variable in determining differences in physiological costs and whole animal energy budgets at different concentrations of environmental oxygen levels. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Resource limits and conversion efficiency with implications for climate change and California's energy supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Gregory Donald

    on aggregated reserve numbers. Electric power generation consumes 92 percent of U.S. coal production. Natural gas competes with coal as a baseload power generation fuel with similar or slightly better generation efficiency. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, described in Chapter 2, creates transportation fuel from coal with an efficiency of less than 45 percent. Claims of higher efficiencies are based on waste heat recovery, since this is a highly exothermic process. The yield of liquid fuel as a proportion of the energy content of the coal input is always less than 45 percent. Compressed natural gas can be used for vehicle fuel with efficiency greater than 98 percent. If we view Fischer-Tropsch synthesis as a form of arbitrage between markets for electricity and transportation fuel, coal cannot simultaneously compete with natural gas for both transportation fuel and electric power. This is because Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is a way to turn power generation fuel into transportation fuel with low efficiency, while natural gas can be converted to transportation fuel with much greater efficiency. For this reason, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis will be an uneconomic source of transportation fuel as long as natural gas is economic for power generation. This conclusion holds even without the very high capital cost of coal-to-liquids plants. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has generated forty carbon production and emissions scenarios, see the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000). Chapter 4 develops a base-case scenario for global coal production based on the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data. Areas with large resources but little production history, such as Alaska or Eastern Siberia, can be treated as sensitivities on top of this base case. The value of our approach is that it provides a reality check on the magnitude of carbon emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The resulting base case is significantly

  4. Historical Climate Change Impact-Response Processes Under the Framework of Food Security in China%粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方修琦; 郑景云; 葛全胜

    2014-01-01

    -curity, individual food security, and social security are discussed. For human society, climate change means the changes of climatic resources or disasters. Impacts of climate change occurred from the direct impact on the grain harvest, then transferred further up to the sub-systems of economy, population and society mainly though the impact-response chain of climate change, agriculture harvest per capita food supply, famine, and social sta-bility. However, the impact-response processes of climate change could not be attributed to a simple causality. The initial impact could be amplified or suppressed in feedback processes affected by many factors in each sub-system, such as arable land, population, policy, foreign forces, and so on. Both people’s spontaneous be-haviours and the government's organized policies and operations played very important roles in all steps of ad-justing the responses on the impacts of climate change. But each adjustment had its limitation under the given historical condition. The impact of climate change could be positive or negative. To a certain degree, even the negative impacts could be converted into new opportunity for development if right countermeasures were tak-en. This article has provided a framework on the impact-response processes of historical climate change. Fur-ther research should be carried out to measure the processes quantitatively on the base of the framework.

  5. The limits of poverty reduction in support of climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Donald R.; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Eakin, Hallie; Lo, Yun-Jia

    2016-09-01

    The relationship between poverty and climate change vulnerability is complex and though not commensurate, the distinctions between the two are often blurred. There is widespread recognition of the need to better understand poverty-vulnerability dynamics in order to improve risk management and poverty reduction investments. This is challenging due to the latent nature of adaptive capacities, frequent lack of baseline data, and the need for high-resolution studies. Here we respond to these challenges by analyzing household-level data in Northeast Brazil to compare drought events 14 years apart. In the period between droughts, the government implemented an aggressive anti-poverty program that includes financial and human capital investments. Poverty declined significantly, but the expected reduction in vulnerability did not occur, in part because the households were not investing in risk management strategies. Our findings complement other research that shows that households make rational decisions that may not correspond with policymaker expectations. We emphasize the need for complementary investments to help channel increased household wealth into risk reduction, and to ensure that the public sector itself continues to prioritize the public functions of risk management, especially in areas where the social cost of climatic risk is high.

  6. Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sittaro, Fabian; Paquette, Alain; Messier, Christian; Nock, Charles A

    2017-08-01

    Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970-1978, 2000-2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr -1 , than for adults, 0.13 km yr -1 . Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Food for Thought: Frequent Interracial Dining Experiences as a Predictor of Students' Racial Climate Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Maria R.; Byron, Reginald A.; Ferry, Griffin; Garcia, Melissa

    2013-01-01

    This article describes a study that explored factors which influenced undergraduate students' perceptions of the racial climate at a predominantly white liberal arts university in the South. Mixed methods results suggest that race, aspects of the institutional climate, and frequent interracial dining experiences in the campus cafeteria…

  8. Climate variability and yields of major staple food crops in Northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we ...

  9. 75 FR 4469 - Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations: Resource Limits and Exclusions, and Extended...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-28

    ... resource limits are insufficient for the target populations and serve as a barrier to participation. The... concern that the current FDPIR resource limit was insufficient for the target population and served as a... by the State agency or ITO. The current estimated annual reporting burden for the certification or...

  10. Climatic Sensitivity of a Mixed Forest Association of White Spruce and Trembling Aspen at Their Southern Range Limit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophan Chhin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climatic sensitivity of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench Voss was examined growing in association with trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx. at their southern limit of distribution in a transitional ecotone between the southern boreal forest and northern prairie region. The study was carried out in the Spruce Woods Provincial Park (SWPP located in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. The dry regional climate restricted trembling aspen growth during the growing season via moisture deficiency and temperature induced drought stress. Warm, mild winters also negatively affected radial growth of trembling aspen. Growth of white spruce was moderated by conditions within the aspen stands as radial growth patterns showed low variability from year to year, a low common growth signal, and a stronger response to temperature than to precipitation. Nonetheless, the dry regional climate still restricted growth of white spruce during the growing season via temperature induced drought stress. The findings of the study for white spruce support the stress gradient hypothesis in which facilitative interactions between tree species are expected under harsher environmental conditions.

  11. International negotiation methods on climatic risks, the limits of global incentives: Natural gas example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.C.; Journe, V.

    1992-01-01

    The discussion on economic instruments for coordinating an international strategy for climatic risks prevention does not take sufficiently into account the importance of the relevant scientific controversies. These ones determine strongly the negotiation process for the settlement of such a system. We illustrate this point with the simple case of the natural gas whose superiority in terms of emission contents compared to the other fossil fuels, could be contested in case of too important CH 4 releases. We show that the negotiation process cannot come to a positive end if the incentive system relies only on the price signal. This process can converge only if one thinks about the combination of various tools, namely technological norms and ad hoc funds for the renewal of transmission and distribution networks combined with tax systems. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  12. Joint implementation: a pioneer mechanism within the limits of emissions - Climate study nr 33

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shishlov, Igor; Bellassen, Valentin; Leguet, Benoit

    2012-02-01

    The authors first notice that much has been written about the Clean Development mechanism defined in the Kyoto protocol, but also that the Joint Implementation mechanism has an always increasing importance. Provided that always more countries would adopt greenhouse gas emissions thresholds and the Joint Implementation after the Durban conference, they analyse the Joint Implementation mechanism operation in comparison with the Clean Development mechanism. They address the economic and environmental background of the Joint Implementation. Then, they analyse quantitative aspects of this mechanism, develop a model for the assessment of the potential offer in carbon credits. They discuss the qualitative aspects of the Joint Implementation mechanism: environmental integrity, double accounting, perceived concurrence of national climate policies. Case studies are presented (Russia, Ukraine, France, EU, etc.)

  13. When it is costly to have a caring mother: food limitation erases the benefits of parental care in earwigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meunier, Joël; Kölliker, Mathias

    2012-08-23

    The aggregation of parents with offspring is generally associated with different forms of care that improve offspring survival at potential costs to parents. Under poor environments, the limited amount of resources available can increase the level of competition among family members and consequently lead to adaptive changes in parental investment. However, it remains unclear as to what extent such changes modify offspring fitness, particularly when offspring can survive without parents such as in the European earwig, Forficula auricularia. Here, we show that under food restriction, earwig maternal presence decreased offspring survival until adulthood by 43 per cent. This effect was independent of sibling competition and was expressed after separation from the female, indicating lasting detrimental effects. The reduced benefits of maternal presence on offspring survival were not associated with higher investment in future reproduction, suggesting a condition-dependent effect of food restriction on mothers and local mother-offspring competition for food. Overall, these findings demonstrate for the first time a long-term negative effect of maternal presence on offspring survival in a species with maternal care, and highlight the importance of food availability in the early evolution of family life.

  14. Peri-urban areas and food-energy-water nexus sustainability and resilience strategies in the age of climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Magoni, Marcello; Menoni, Scira

    2017-01-01

    This book explores the nexus among food, energy and water in peri-urban areas, demonstrating how relevant this nexus is for environmental sustainability. In particular it examines the effective management of the nexus in the face of the risks and trade-offs of mitigation policies, and as a mean to create resilience to climate change. The book delineates strategies and actions necessary to develop and protect our natural resources and improve the functionality of the nexus, such as: integrated management of the major resources that characterize the metabolism of a city, stronger coordination among stakeholders who often weight differently the services that are relevant to their individual concerns, integration of efforts towards environmental protection, adaptation to and prevention of climate change and disaster risks mitigation.

  15. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

    2017-07-01

    The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

  16. The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine (Gulo gulo): do climatic constraints limit its geographic distribution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. P. Copeland; K. S. McKelvey; K. B. Aubry; A. Landa; J. Persson; R. M. Inman; J. Krebs; E. Lofroth; H. Golden; J. R. Squires; A. Magoun; M. K. Schwartz; J. Wilmot; C. L. Copeland; R. E. Yates; I. Kojola; R. May

    2010-01-01

    We propose a fundamental geographic distribution for the wolverine (Gulo gulo (L., 1758)) based on the hypothesis that the occurrence of wolverines is constrained by their obligate association with persistent spring snow cover for successful reproductive denning and by an upper limit of thermoneutrality. To investigate this hypothesis, we developed a composite of MODIS...

  17. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study contain projected country and regional changes in grain crop yields due to global climate change. Equilibrium and transient...

  18. Envisioning Urban Farming for Food Security during the Climate Change Era. Vertical Farm within Highly Urbanized Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Januszkiewicz, Krystyna; Jarmusz, Małgorzata

    2017-10-01

    Global climate change constitutes a serious threat to global security including food production in the following decades. This paper is focused on a new possibility and advisability of creating a systemic solution to resolve the problem of food security in highly-urbanized areas. The first part of the paper deal with historical development vertical farms ideas and defines the main environmental and spatial constrains also it indicates that vertical farms are going to be part of the future horticultural production. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by authors. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights an integrating large-scale horticultural production directly into the cities, where the most of the food consumption takes place. In conclusions emphasizes, that the design will force architects, engineers and urban planners to completely revise and redefine contemporary design process and understanding of the idea-fix of sustainable design. To successfully migrate food production from extensive rural areas to dense environment of city centres, a new holistic approach, integrating knowledge and advances of multiple fields of science, have to develop.

  19. Climate change adaptation: a panacea for food security in Ondo State, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatuase, A. I.

    2017-08-01

    This paper examines the likely perceived causes of climate change, adaptation strategies employed and technical inefficiency of arable crop farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria. Data were obtained from primary sources using a set of structured questionnaire assisted with interview schedule. Multistage sampling technique was used. Data were analyzed using the following: descriptive statistics and the stochastic frontier production function. The findings showed that majority of the respondents (59.1 %) still believed that climate change is a natural phenomenon that is beyond man's power to abate while industrial release, improper sewage disposal, fossil fuel use, deforestation and bush burning were perceived as the most human factors that influence climate change by the category that chose human activities (40.9 %) as the main causes of climate change. The main employed adaptation strategies by the farmers were mixed cropping, planting early matured crop, planting of resistant crops and use of agrochemicals. The arable crop farmers were relatively technically efficient with about 53 % of them having technical efficiency above the average of 0.784 for the study area. The study observed that education, adaptation, perception, climate information and farming experience were statistically significant in decreasing inefficiency of arable crop production. Therefore, advocacy on climate change and its adaptation strategies should be intensified in the study area.

  20. How phosphorus limitation can control climate-active gas sources and sinks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gypens, Nathalie; Borges, Alberto V.; Ghyoot, Caroline

    2017-06-01

    Since the 1950's, anthropogenic activities have increased nutrient river loads to European coastal areas. Subsequent implementation of nutrient reduction policies have led to considerably reduction of phosphorus (P) loads from the mid-1980's, while nitrogen (N) loads were maintained, inducing a P limitation of phytoplankton growth in many eutrophied coastal areas such as the Southern Bight of the North Sea (SBNS). When dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) is limiting, most phytoplankton organisms are able to indirectly acquire P from dissolved organic P (DOP). We investigate the impact of DOP use on phytoplankton production and atmospheric fluxes of CO2 and dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the SBNS from 1951 to 2007 using an extended version of the R-MIRO-BIOGAS model. This model includes a description of the ability of phytoplankton organisms to use DOP as a source of P. Results show that primary production can increase up to 30% due to DOP uptake under limiting DIP conditions. Consequently, simulated DMS emissions also increase proportionally while CO2 emissions to the atmosphere decrease, relative to the reference simulation without DOP uptake.

  1. Improved gait in persons with knee related mobility limitations by a rosehip food supplement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ginnerup-Nielsen, Elisabeth; Christensen, Robin; Bliddal, Henning

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a specialized rosehip powder nutraceutical on the biomechanical function of the knee joint during walking in individuals with knee-related walking limitations. METHODS: Randomized, participant and outcome assessor blinded trial. Participants with self-reported...

  2. Sodium co-limits and catalyzes macronutrients in a prairie food web

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspari, Michael; Roeder, Karl A.; Benson, Brittany

    2017-01-01

    Nitrogen and phosphorus frequently limit terrestrial plant production, but have a mixed record in regulating the abundance of terrestrial invertebrates. We contrasted four ways that Na could interact with an NP fertilizer to shape the plants and invertebrates of an inland prairie. We applied NP a...

  3. Limited evidence for CO2 -related growth enhancement in northern Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine populations across climate gradients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Charlotte C; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Cooper, Leila Annie; Sala, Anna

    2018-04-15

    Forests sequester large amounts of carbon annually and are integral in buffering against effects of global change. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 may enhance photosynthesis and/or decrease stomatal conductance (g s ) thereby enhancing intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), having potential indirect and direct benefits to tree growth. While increasing iWUE has been observed in most trees globally, enhanced growth is not ubiquitous, possibly due to concurrent climatic constraints on growth. To investigate our incomplete understanding of interactions between climate and CO 2 and their impacts on tree physiology and growth, we used an environmental gradient approach. We combined dendrochronology with carbon isotope analysis (δ 13 C) to assess the covariation of basal area increment (BAI) and iWUE over time in lodgepole pine. Trees were sampled at 18 sites spanning two climatically distinct elevation transects on the lee and windward sides of the Continental Divide, encompassing the majority of lodgepole pine's northern Rocky Mountain elevational range. We analyzed BAI and iWUE from 1950 to 2015, and explored correlations with monthly climate variables. As expected, iWUE increased at all sites. However, concurrent growth trends depended on site climatic water deficit (CWD). Significant growth increases occurred only at the driest sites, where increases in iWUE were strongest, while growth decreases were greatest at sites where CWD has been historically lowest. Late summer drought of the previous year negatively affected growth across sites. These results suggest that increasing iWUE, if strong enough, may indirectly benefit growth at drier sites by effectively extending the growing season via reductions in g s . Strong growth decreases at high elevation windward sites may reflect increasing water stress as a result of decreasing snowpack, which was not offset by greater iWUE. Our results imply that increasing iWUE driven by decreasing g s may benefit tree growth in

  4. Climate Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What Is Permafrost? How Do We Predict Future Climate? Green Career: Earth Scientist 10 Things About Ecosystems ... study Earth? What can trees tell us about climate change? Why does NASA care about food? Games ...

  5. Seasonal shift in climatic limiting factors on tree transpiration: evidence from sap flow observations at alpine treelines in southeast Tibet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xinsheng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0 oC. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.

  6. Potentials, consequences and trade-offs of terrestrial carbon dioxide removal. Strategies for climate engineering and their limitations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boysen, Lena R.

    2017-01-17

    For hundreds of years, humans have engineered the planet to fulfil their need for increasing energy consumption and production. Since the industrial revolution, one consequence are rising global mean temperatures which could change by 2 C to 4.5 C until 2100 if mitigation enforcement of CO{sub 2} emissions fails.To counteract this projected global warming, climate engineering techniques aim at intendedly cooling Earth's climate for example through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) which is commonly perceived as environmentally friendly. Here, tCDR refers to the establishment of large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) in combination with the production of long-lasting carbon products such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage or biochar. This thesis examines the potentials and possible consequences of tCDR by analysing land-use scenarios with different spatial and temporal scales of BPs using an advanced biosphere model forced by varying climate projections. These scenario simulations were evaluated with focus on their carbon sequestration potentials, trade-offs with food production and impacts on natural ecosystems and climate itself. Synthesised, the potential of tCDR to permanently extract CO{sub 2} out of the atmosphere is found to be small, regardless of the emission scenario, the point of onset or the spatial extent. On the contrary, the aforementioned trade-offs and impacts are shown to be unfavourable in most cases. In a high emission scenario with a late onset of BPs (i.e. around 2050), even unlimited area availability for tCDR could not reverse past emissions sufficiently, e.g. BPs covering 25% of all agricultural or natural land could delay 2100's carbon budget by no more than two or three decades (equivalent to ∼550 or 800 GtC tCDR), respectively. However, simultaneous emission reductions and an earlier establishment of BPs (i.e. around 2035) could result in strong carbon extractions reversing past emissions (e.g. six or eight

  7. Potentials, consequences and trade-offs of terrestrial carbon dioxide removal. Strategies for climate engineering and their limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boysen, Lena R.

    2017-01-01

    For hundreds of years, humans have engineered the planet to fulfil their need for increasing energy consumption and production. Since the industrial revolution, one consequence are rising global mean temperatures which could change by 2 C to 4.5 C until 2100 if mitigation enforcement of CO_2 emissions fails.To counteract this projected global warming, climate engineering techniques aim at intendedly cooling Earth's climate for example through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) which is commonly perceived as environmentally friendly. Here, tCDR refers to the establishment of large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) in combination with the production of long-lasting carbon products such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage or biochar. This thesis examines the potentials and possible consequences of tCDR by analysing land-use scenarios with different spatial and temporal scales of BPs using an advanced biosphere model forced by varying climate projections. These scenario simulations were evaluated with focus on their carbon sequestration potentials, trade-offs with food production and impacts on natural ecosystems and climate itself. Synthesised, the potential of tCDR to permanently extract CO_2 out of the atmosphere is found to be small, regardless of the emission scenario, the point of onset or the spatial extent. On the contrary, the aforementioned trade-offs and impacts are shown to be unfavourable in most cases. In a high emission scenario with a late onset of BPs (i.e. around 2050), even unlimited area availability for tCDR could not reverse past emissions sufficiently, e.g. BPs covering 25% of all agricultural or natural land could delay 2100's carbon budget by no more than two or three decades (equivalent to ∼550 or 800 GtC tCDR), respectively. However, simultaneous emission reductions and an earlier establishment of BPs (i.e. around 2035) could result in strong carbon extractions reversing past emissions (e.g. six or eight decades or ∼500 or

  8. Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

    2011-01-25

    Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.

  9. Molecular techniques for detection and identification of pathogens in food: advantages and limitations

    OpenAIRE

    Palomino-Camargo, Carolina; Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología de Alimentos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Central de Venezuela. Caracas, Venezuela. Magíster en Ciencia y Tecnología de los Alimentos licenciada en Biología; González-Muñoz, Yuniesky; Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología de Alimentos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Central de Venezuela. Caracas, Venezuela. Ministerio del Poder Popular para la Alimentación. Caracas, Venezuela. licenciado en Ciencias de los Alimentos.

    2014-01-01

    Foodborne diseases, caused by pathogenic microorganisms, are a major public health problem worldwide. Microbiological methods commonly used in the detection of these foodborne pathogens are laborious and time consuming. This situation, coupled with the demand for immediate results and with technological advances, has led to the development of a wide range of rapid methods in recent decades. On this basis, this review describes the advantages and limitations of the main molecular methods used ...

  10. Advantages and Limitations of the Front-of-Package (FOP Labeling Systems in Guiding the Consumers’ Healthy Food Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Tarabella

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, nutrition labels have provided an increasing amount of information about the nutritional value of a foodstuff, in a variety of patterns, having the main goal to help consumers in making healthier food choices. Now, many questions appeared related to the effectiveness of nutrition information in guiding the consumer purchasing behaviour, by encouraging the healthy foods choice. It becomes increasingly clear that many consumers have difficulties in understanding the nutritional information, preferring a simpler way in providing this information, helping them in the rapid evaluation of the nutritional characteristics of a foodstuff. In response to the obvious need to develop a more effective presentation of nutritional information, which convey this information in a simplified and systematic manner, manufacturers and retailers from different countries have created some systems for signalling the nutritional profile. For the nutritional information of greatest interest to be easily perceived by consumers, they have used various forms of graphical representation, that were marked on the front of individual packages (generically called "front of package" - FOP. Although created in order to facilitate healthy food choices, the effect of these FOP systems on consumers is now controversial. Following a literature review, the paper highlights the main benefits and limitations of the widely used FOP systems in the European Union ("Traffic Light" and "Guideline Daily Amounts". The paper presents also some suggestions for developing an optimal FOP system, standardized and adapted to consumers` needs.

  11. Quinoa biodiversity and sustainability for food security under climate change. A review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruiz, Karina B.; Biondi, Stefania; Oses, Rómulo

    2014-01-01

    . Although the crop is still mainly produced in Bolivia and Peru, agronomic trials and cultivation are spreading to many other countries. Quinoa maintains productivity on rather poor soils and under conditions of water shortage and high salinity. Moreover, quinoa seeds are an exceptionally nutritious food...... propose a schematic model integrating the fundamental factors that should determine the future utilization of quinoa, in terms of food security, biodiversity conservation, and cultural identity....

  12. Effect of Climate and Agricultural Land Use Changes on UK Feed Barley Production and Food Security to the 2050s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David O. Yawson

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the UK has a high self-sufficiency rate in barley production. This paper assessed the effects of projected climate and land use changes on feed barley production and, consequently, on meat supply in the UK from the 2030s to the 2050s. Total barley production under projected land use and climate changes ranged from 4.6 million tons in the 2030s to 9.0 million tons in the 2050s. From these, the projected feed barley supply ranged from approximately 2.3 to 4.6 million tons from the 2030s to the 2050s, respectively. The results indicate that while UK spring barley production will thrive under, and benefit from climate change, total land area allocated to barley production will ultimately determine self-sufficiency. Without expansion in the area of land and/or further significant increases in yields, the UK may face large deficits in domestic feed barley production and, for that matter, meat supply in the future. Hence, agricultural and food security policy needs to consider, principally, the effect of agricultural land use change on key crops, such as barley. Even though the UK can import feed barley or meat to address the deficits observed in this study, the question that needs to be addressed is where all that import will come from.

  13. Climatic conditions and child height: Sex-specific vulnerability and the protective effects of sanitation and food markets in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulmi, Prajula; Block, Steven A; Shively, Gerald E; Masters, William A

    2016-12-01

    Environmental conditions in early life are known to have impacts on later health outcomes, but causal mechanisms and potential remedies have been difficult to discern. This paper uses the Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys of 2006 and 2011, combined with earlier NASA satellite observations of variation in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at each child's location and time of birth to identify the trimesters of gestation and periods of infancy when climate variation is linked to attained height later in life. We find significant differences by sex: males are most affected by conditions in their second trimester of gestation, and females in the first three months after birth. Each 100-point difference in NDVI at those times is associated with a difference in height-for-age z-score (HAZ) measured at age 12-59 months of 0.088 for boys and 0.054 for girls, an effect size similar to that of moving within the distribution of household wealth by close to one quintile for boys and one decile for girls. The entire seasonal change in NDVI from peak to trough is approximately 200-300 points during the 2000-2011 study period, implying a seasonal effect on HAZ similar to one to three quintiles of household wealth. This effect is observed only in households without toilets; in households with toilets, there is no seasonal fluctuation, implying protection against climatic conditions that facilitate disease transmission. We also use data from the Nepal Living Standards Surveys on district-level agricultural production and marketing, and find a climate effect on child growth only in districts where households' food consumption derives primarily from their own production. Robustness tests find no evidence of selection effects, and placebo regression results reveal no significant artefactual correlations. The timing and sex-specificity of climatic effects are consistent with previous studies, while the protective effects of household sanitation and food markets are

  14. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

    2014-01-01

    Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

  15. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenguo Wang

    Full Text Available Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080 on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

  16. Combined food and micronutrient supplements during pregnancy have limited impact on child blood pressure and kidney function in rural Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkesworth, Sophie; Wagatsuma, Yukiko; Kahn, Ashraf I; Hawlader, Mohammad D H; Fulford, Anthony J C; Arifeen, Shams-El; Persson, Lars-Åke; Moore, Sophie E

    2013-05-01

    Observational evidence suggests nutritional exposures during in utero development may have long-lasting consequences for health; data from interventions are scarce. Here, we present a trial follow-up study to assess the association between prenatal food and micronutrient supplementation and childhood blood pressure and kidney function. During the MINIMat Trial in rural Bangladesh, women were randomly assigned early in pregnancy to receive an early or later invitation to attend a food supplementation program and additionally to receive either iron and folate or multiple micronutrient tablets daily. The 3267 singleton birth individuals with measured anthropometry born during the trial were eligible for a follow-up study at 4.5 y old. A total of 77% of eligible individuals were recruited and blood pressure, kidney size by ultrasound, and glomerular filtration rate (GFR; calculated from plasma cystatin c) were assessed. In adjusted analysis, early invitation to food supplementation was associated with a 0.72-mm Hg [(95% CI: 0.16, 1.28); P = 0.01] lower childhood diastolic blood pressure and maternal MMS supplementation was associated with a marginally higher [0.87 mm Hg (95% CI: 0.18, 1.56); P = 0.01] childhood diastolic blood pressure. There was also some evidence that a supplement higher in iron was associated with a higher offspring GFR. No other effects of the food or micronutrient interventions were observed and there was no interaction between the interventions on the outcomes studied. These marginal associations and small effect sizes suggest limited public health importance in early childhood.

  17. Assessing Face Validity of a Food Behavior Checklist for Limited-resource Filipinos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banna, Jinan C; Buchthal, Opal Vanessa; Tauyan, Socorro

    2015-10-01

    Diet-related chronic health conditions are prevalent in the Filipino American community; however, there is a lack of rigorously validated nutrition education evaluation tools in Tagalog for use in this population. This study aimed to develop and evaluate the face validity of a Tagalog-language food behavior checklist (FBC). A multi-step method was used, involving translation of questionnaire text from English to Tagalog by a team of professionals, creation of accompanying color photographs, cognitive testing with the target population, final review by the team of professionals, and assessment of readability. Subjects for cognitive testing were men (n=6) and women (n=14) 18 years or older in Hawai'i who received or were eligible to receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, self-identified as Filipino, and preferred Tagalog rather than English. Participants were recruited from churches, the Filipino Center, and other community sites. Cognitive interviews revealed several issues with text and photographs, such as preferences for specific terms, and images that did not adequately illustrate the text. Image changes were made to reflect items most commonly consumed. The team of professionals agreed with participant suggestions. Assessment of readability revealed a reading level appropriate for a low-literacy population of grade 5.9. The multi-step process, which allowed members of the target audience to reveal the appropriateness of the questionnaire, yielded a Tagalog-language FBC found to have adequate face validity. After further evaluation of validity and reliability, this tool may be used to evaluate behavior change resulting from the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) nutrition education programs.

  18. Implications of policies and prevent climate change for future food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Scott, M.J.

    1993-07-01

    Measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels, suppression of on-farm emissions of methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), afforestation, and geoengineering ``fixes`` have been proposed to mitigate or eliminate greenhouse-forced climate change. These measures will impact agriculture and other sectors of the economy. this report discusses the above impacts.

  19. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

  20. Climate variability and physical forcing of the food webs and the carbon budget on panarctic shelves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carmack, Eddy; Barber, David; Christensen, Jens

    2006-01-01

    , which differ for different properties and shelf types, as do the likely responses; that is, the distributions of nutrients, organic carbon, freshwater, sediments, and trace minerals will all respond differently to climate forcing. A fundamental conclusion is that the changes associated with light...

  1. One Health, One World—The Intersecting Legal Regimes of Trade, Climate Change, Food Security, Humanitarian Crises, and Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelli K. Garcia

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Today’s global health challenges require a multi-sectoral approach in which health is a fundamental value within global governance and international law. “One Health, One World” provides a unified, harmonious vision of global health governance that supports the wellbeing of humans and animals living in a clean and temperate environment. This article focuses on five legal regimes—trade law, food security law, environmental law, humanitarian law, and refugee law—that play a pivotal role in influencing health outcomes and are integral to achieving the One Health, One World vision. International trade, for example, opens markets not only to life-saving products such as vaccines, medicines, and medical equipment, but also to life-threatening products such as tobacco and asbestos. If strengthened and enforced, environmental law can decrease air and water pollution, major causes of death and disability. World hunger has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis and climate change, increasing the urgency for international law to enhance food security. Humanitarian law must similarly be strengthened to protect civilians adequately as the nature of warfare continues to change. Refugee law plays a pivotal role in protecting the health of deeply vulnerable people who lack food, shelter, and social stability. Higher standards and more effective compliance are necessary for international law to realize its full potential to safeguard the world's population.

  2. Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegoke, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

  3. Variations of Climate-Growth Response of Major Conifers at Upper Distributional Limits in Shika Snow Mountain, Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Improved understanding of climate-growth relationships of multiple species is fundamental to understanding and predicting the response of forest growth to future climate change. Forests are mainly composed of conifers in Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, but variations of growth response to climate conditions among the species are not well understood. To detect the growth response of multiple species to climate change, we developed residual chronologies of four major conifers, i.e., George’s fir (Abies georgei Orr, Likiang spruce (Picea likiangensis (Franch. E.Pritz., Gaoshan pine (Pinus densata Mast. and Chinese larch (Larix potaninii Batalin at the upper distributional limits in Shika Snow Mountain. Using the dendroclimatology method, we analyzed correlations between the residual chronologies and climate variables. The results showed that conifer radial growth was influenced by both temperature and precipitation in Shika Snow Mountain. Previous November temperature, previous July temperature, and current May precipitation were the common climatic factors that had consistent influences on radial growth of the four species. Temperature in the previous post-growing season (September–October and moisture conditions in the current growing season (June–August were the common climatic factors that had divergent impacts on the radial growth of the four species. Based on the predictions of climate models and our understanding of the growth response of four species to climate variables, we may understand the growth response to climate change at the species level. It is difficult to predict future forest growth in the study area, since future climate change might cause both increases and decreases for the four species and indirect effects of climate change on forests should be considered.

  4. Optimizing Regional Food and Energy Production under Limited Water Availability through Integrated Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junlian Gao

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Across the world, human activity is approaching planetary boundaries. In northwest China, in particular, the coal industry and agriculture are competing for key limited inputs of land and water. In this situation, the traditional approach to planning the development of each sector independently fails to deliver sustainable solutions, as solutions made in sectorial ‘silos’ are often suboptimal for the entire economy. We propose a spatially detailed cost-minimizing model for coal and agricultural production in a region under constraints on land and water availability. We apply the model to the case study of Shanxi province, China. We show how such an integrated optimization, which takes maximum advantage of the spatial heterogeneity in resource abundance, could help resolve the conflicts around the water–food–energy (WFE nexus and assist in its management. We quantify the production-possibility frontiers under different water-availability scenarios and demonstrate that in water-scarce regions, like Shanxi, the production capacity and corresponding production solutions are highly sensitive to water constraints. The shadow prices estimated in the model could be the basis for intelligent differentiated water pricing, not only to enable the water-resource transfer between agriculture and the coal industry, and across regions, but also to achieve cost-effective WFE management.

  5. Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural food production to supply Indian diets: Implications for climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Sylvia H; Sapkota, Tek B; Hillier, Jon; Stirling, Clare M; Macdiarmid, Jennie I; Aleksandrowicz, Lukasz; Green, Rosemary; Joy, Edward J M; Dangour, Alan D; Smith, Pete

    2017-01-16

    Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. The growing global population is putting pressure on agricultural production systems that aim to secure food production while minimising GHG emissions. In this study, the GHG emissions associated with the production of major food commodities in India are calculated using the Cool Farm Tool. GHG emissions, based on farm management for major crops (including cereals like wheat and rice, pulses, potatoes, fruits and vegetables) and livestock-based products (milk, eggs, chicken and mutton meat), are quantified and compared. Livestock and rice production were found to be the main sources of GHG emissions in Indian agriculture with a country average of 5.65 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 rice, 45.54 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 mutton meat and 2.4 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 milk. Production of cereals (except rice), fruits and vegetables in India emits comparatively less GHGs with foods could greatly increase GHG emissions from Indian agriculture. A range of mitigation options are available that could reduce emissions from current levels and may be compatible with increased future food production and consumption demands in India.

  6. The fundament of food, crop protein production, is threatened by climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Gislum, René; Jørgensen, Johannes Ravn

    2016-01-01

    Income growth, urbanization, and changes in lifestyles and food preferences combined with continuing population growth lead to increasing demand for plant protein production worldwide. All the proteins we eat are produced by crops, including the proteins we get from animals, which initially come...

  7. Complex agro-ecosystems for food security in a changing climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khumairoh, U.; Groot, J.C.J.; Lantinga, E.A.

    2012-01-01

    Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers

  8. Estimated general population control limits for unitary agents in drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, A.P.; Adams, J.D.; Cerar, R.J.; Hess, T.L.; Kistner, S.L.; Leffingwell, S.S.; MacIntosh, R.G.; Ward, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    In the event of an unplanned release of chemical agent during any stage of the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program (CSDP), the potential exists for contamination of drinking water, forage crops, grains, garden produce, and livestock. Persistent agents such as VX or sulfur mustard pose the greatest human health concern for reentry. This White Paper has been prepared to provide technical bases for these decisions by developing working estimates of agent control limits in selected environmental media considered principal sources of potential human exposure. To date, control limits for public exposure to unitary agents have been established for atmospheric concentrations only. The current analysis builds on previous work to calculate working estimates of control limits for ingestion and dermal exposure to potentially contaminated drinking water, milk, soil, and unprocessed food items such as garden produce. Information characterizing agent desorption from, and detection on or in, contaminated porous media are presently too developed to permit reasonable estimation of dermal exposure from this source. Thus, dermal contact with potentially contaminated porous surfaces is not considered in this document.

  9. Intra- and trans-generational costs of reduced female body size caused by food limitation early in life in mites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walzer, Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Food limitation early in life may be compensated for by developmental plasticity resulting in accelerated development enhancing survival at the expense of small adult body size. However and especially for females in non-matching maternal and offspring environments, being smaller than the standard may incur considerable intra- and trans-generational costs. Here, we evaluated the costs of small female body size induced by food limitation early in life in the sexually size-dimorphic predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. Females are larger than males. These predators are adapted to exploit ephemeral spider mite prey patches. The intra- and trans-generational effects of small maternal body size manifested in lower maternal survival probabilities, decreased attractiveness for males, and a reduced number and size of eggs compared to standard-sized females. The trans-generational effects of small maternal body size were sex-specific with small mothers producing small daughters but standard-sized sons. Small female body size apparently intensified the well-known costs of sexual activity because mortality of small but not standard-sized females mainly occurred shortly after mating. The disadvantages of small females in mating and egg production may be generally explained by size-associated morphological and physiological constraints. Additionally, size-assortative mate preferences of standard-sized mates may have rendered small females disproportionally unattractive mating partners. We argue that the sex-specific trans-generational effects were due to sexual size dimorphism - females are the larger sex and thus more strongly affected by maternal stress than the smaller males - and to sexually selected lower plasticity of male body size.

  10. Intra- and Trans-Generational Costs of Reduced Female Body Size Caused by Food Limitation Early in Life in Mites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walzer, Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Background Food limitation early in life may be compensated for by developmental plasticity resulting in accelerated development enhancing survival at the expense of small adult body size. However and especially for females in non-matching maternal and offspring environments, being smaller than the standard may incur considerable intra- and trans-generational costs. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we evaluated the costs of small female body size induced by food limitation early in life in the sexually size-dimorphic predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. Females are larger than males. These predators are adapted to exploit ephemeral spider mite prey patches. The intra- and trans-generational effects of small maternal body size manifested in lower maternal survival probabilities, decreased attractiveness for males, and a reduced number and size of eggs compared to standard-sized females. The trans-generational effects of small maternal body size were sex-specific with small mothers producing small daughters but standard-sized sons. Conclusions/Significance Small female body size apparently intensified the well-known costs of sexual activity because mortality of small but not standard-sized females mainly occurred shortly after mating. The disadvantages of small females in mating and egg production may be generally explained by size-associated morphological and physiological constraints. Additionally, size-assortative mate preferences of standard-sized mates may have rendered small females disproportionally unattractive mating partners. We argue that the sex-specific trans-generational effects were due to sexual size dimorphism – females are the larger sex and thus more strongly affected by maternal stress than the smaller males – and to sexually selected lower plasticity of male body size. PMID:24265745

  11. Intra- and trans-generational costs of reduced female body size caused by food limitation early in life in mites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Walzer

    Full Text Available Food limitation early in life may be compensated for by developmental plasticity resulting in accelerated development enhancing survival at the expense of small adult body size. However and especially for females in non-matching maternal and offspring environments, being smaller than the standard may incur considerable intra- and trans-generational costs.Here, we evaluated the costs of small female body size induced by food limitation early in life in the sexually size-dimorphic predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. Females are larger than males. These predators are adapted to exploit ephemeral spider mite prey patches. The intra- and trans-generational effects of small maternal body size manifested in lower maternal survival probabilities, decreased attractiveness for males, and a reduced number and size of eggs compared to standard-sized females. The trans-generational effects of small maternal body size were sex-specific with small mothers producing small daughters but standard-sized sons.Small female body size apparently intensified the well-known costs of sexual activity because mortality of small but not standard-sized females mainly occurred shortly after mating. The disadvantages of small females in mating and egg production may be generally explained by size-associated morphological and physiological constraints. Additionally, size-assortative mate preferences of standard-sized mates may have rendered small females disproportionally unattractive mating partners. We argue that the sex-specific trans-generational effects were due to sexual size dimorphism - females are the larger sex and thus more strongly affected by maternal stress than the smaller males - and to sexually selected lower plasticity of male body size.

  12. The effect of using consumption taxes on foods to promote climate friendly diets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edjabou, Louise Dyhr; Smed, Sinne

    2013-01-01

    policy instrument to decrease emissions from agriculture than a tax based directly on emissions from production. In this study, we look at the effect of internalising the social costs of greenhouse gas emissions through a tax based on CO2 equivalents for 23 different foods. Furthermore, we compare......Agriculture is responsible for 17–35% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions with livestock production contributing by approximately 18–22% of global emissions. Due to high monitoring costs and low technical potential for emission reductions, a tax on consumption may be a more efficient...... the loss in consumer surplus and the changed dietary composition for different taxation scenarios. In the most efficient scenario, we find a decrease in the carbon footprint from foods for an average household of 2.3–8.8% at a cost of 0.15–1.73 DKK per kg CO2 equivalent whereas the most effective scenario...

  13. Salinity shapes food webs in shallow lakes: implications for increasing aridity with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Nicolas; Yu, Jinlei; Gutierrez, Maria Florencia

    2015-01-01

    on community and food web structure in 24 lakes along a wide salinity gradient, from freshwater (0.5 g L-1) to hypersaline lakes (115 g L-1), in a semiarid region in North West China. Fish, zooplankton and macroinvertebrate communities were sampled during July 2014 for determination of taxonomy and size......A reduction in runoff and higher evaporation rates are expected to occur towards 2050 in arid and semiarid regions of the world, resulting in a reduction of water level and salinization of inland waters. Besides the natural process of catchment erosion, human activities such as irrigation of crops...... may also increase salinization. Reduced biodiversity in freshwater systems is the most commonly reported effect of salinization, which may have implications for food web structure and likely for ecosystem functioning as well. The objective of the study was to analyze the effects of salinity...

  14. Etude Climat no. 39 'More than 800 agricultural and agri-food sites affected by the EU ETS'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foucherot, Claudine; Bellassen, Valentin

    2013-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: Agriculture accounts for 9% of Europe's anthropogenic emissions, counting only emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from cattle, crops and pasture. These emissions have two characteristics making their inclusion in the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) difficult: they are diffuse and depend on a range of fairly complex pedo-climatic factors. Taking into consideration the whole of the agricultural sector, including upstream activities such as production of fertilizer, phyto-sanitary products, animal feed etc., as well as downstream emissions, dominated by the agri-food sector, and also emissions linked to energy consumption by farming installations, the sector's emissions contribution increases considerably. Within this expanded scope, some emissions sources are included in the EU ETS - mainly agri-food industries, but also producers of fertilizer, heated greenhouses and knackers' yards. Even if the proportion of the agricultural and agri-food sector's emissions covered by the emissions trading scheme is minimal, with just 1.5% of all emissions falling within the scope of the EU ETS, more than 800 industrial sites are covered, accounting for 8% of installations covered by the system. The agricultural and agri-food sector are among the net beneficiaries of the EU ETS in the first two phases (2005-2012), with a surplus of 33 million allowances over the period 2008-2011. This surplus, combined with gains from trading in allowances and credits, represents an estimated asset of 495 million euros. Although it has not been fully exploited on the market, this asset largely exceeds the cost of transactions associated with emissions monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) procedures and compliance work, which is estimated at 30 million euros over the same period. The emission trading scheme has therefore been

  15. Climate change and hunger as the challenges in the global food system

    OpenAIRE

    Stoddart, Ana Florencia

    2013-01-01

    In the last decades, there has been a growing tendency towards international trade and globalisation, particularly leading to a significant increase in flows of agricultural commodities worldwide. From a macroeconomic perspective, the commodity projections are more optimistic than the previous years and the long run tendency shows an increasing demand for feedstock. However, the strong shifts of shocks and fluctuations (in terms of prices and volumes) are a concern to global food security, wi...

  16. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-13

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  17. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  18. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  19. Organic matter flow in the food web at a temperate heath under multifactorial climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Louise C.; Konestabo, Heidi S.; Maraldo, Kristine

    2011-01-01

    climate change factors (elevated CO2, increased temperature and drought) were investigated in a full factorial field experiment at a temperate heathland location. The combined effect of biotic and abiotic factors on nitrogen and carbon flows was traced in plant root → litter → microbe → detritivore....../omnivore → predator food‐web for one year after amendment with 15N13C2‐glycine. Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) measurement of 15N/14N and 13C/12C in soil extracts and functional ecosystem compartments revealed that the recovery of 15N sometimes decreased through the chain of consumption, with the largest...

  20. Reducing Amazon Deforestation through Agricultural Intensification in the Cerrado for Advancing Food Security and Mitigating Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Eduardo Pellegrino Cerri

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Important among global issues is the trilemma of abrupt climate change, food insecurity, and environmental degradation. Despite the increasing use of fossil fuel, about one third of global C emissions come from tropical deforestation and indiscriminate use of agricultural practices. Global food insecurity, affecting one in seven persons, aggravates environmental degradation. The importance of judicious land use and soil sustainability in addressing the trilemma cannot be overemphasized. While intensifying agronomic production on existing land, it is also essential to identify suitable eco-regions for bringing new land under production. Based on 35-years of data from Brazil, we report that C emissions from agroecosystems are 4 to 5.5 times greater by bringing new land under production in Amazon than in the Cerrado for pastures and cropland production, respectively. The data presented indicate that agricultural intensification is feasible in the Cerrado, and the forest in Rondônia and Mato Grosso states must be protected and restored for nature conservancy. Now is the time to think beyond COP 21—Paris 2015 and take concrete actions to address these issues of global significance.

  1. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; hide

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  2. Exploring the nexus between climate change, food security, and deforestation in Q'eqchi' Maya communities, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, I.; Harbor, J.

    2013-12-01

    The challenges of food security in the central Highlands of Guatemala are linked to deforestation, land degradation, and climate change. The Q'eqchi' Maya people that inhabit this region are smallholder farmers who rely on subsistence agriculture for survival. The Q'eqchi' support themselves with timber products and ecosystem services provided by the cloud forest, a unique ecosystem where a substantial portion of water is obtained through the condensation of water droplets onto vegetation via cloud filtration. Over the past 30 years, small-scale deforestation of the cloud forest in the Sierra Yalijux and Sacranix has increased as demand for agricultural land has risen. A link between the decline of cloud forest cover and an increase in severe precipitation events that drive soil erosion has been observed in the study area. As a result, land degradation poses a serious threat to the long-term food security of Q'eqchi' communities. We have examined the social, cultural, and land tenure dynamics that impact the ability of the Q'eqchi' to adapt to the rapidly changing climate, as well as to implement recommendations for grassroots initiatives to enhance these adaptations. Using remote-sensing we constructed three land use change maps that show that deforestation rates have increased by over 200% between 1986-2006 in the Sierra Yaljux and Sacranix mountain ranges, largely due to slash and burn agriculture. Using these land use change maps as an input into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation we show that implementation of agroecological techniques to counter the impacts of land use change drastically reduces soil erosion and is the best management practice. Surveys and focus groups in several Q'eqchi' villages revealed that precipitation events have become less frequent and more intense over the past 30 years, and temperatures have generally been increasing as well. Q'eqchi' people have observed that increasing severe precipitation events have accelerated soil

  3. Simulation modelling and risk assessment as tools to identify the impact of climate change on microbiological food safety – The case study of fresh produce supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacxsens, L.; Luning, P.A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Devlieghere, F.; Leemans, R.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    The current quality assurance and control tools and methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to the following pressures upon the food supply chain, i.e. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. It demonstrates

  4. Quo vadimus - future prospects for the earth's population. Comments on the worldwide situation concerning available energy and food sources, the consequences of climatic change, and available water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Partenscky, H.W. [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Franzius Inst.

    2003-07-01

    The problems of our early future have already been critically examined in the years 1972 und 1974 in reports to the ''Club of Rome'' by D. Meadows in ''The Limits of Growth'' and by Eduard Pestel and M. Mesarovic in ''Mankind at the Turning Point'', and prognoses were given for the coming century. Nothing concerning those alarming results has changed substantially from then up to the present day. The frigthening increase in the population of our earth, our limited energy and food sources, the climatic changes with all their resultant symptoms, the limited availability of water and increasing environmental pollution still remain the problems and danger with which science and international politics must come to terms. This will be the case to an even greater extent in the future. (orig.)

  5. Representation of fine scale atmospheric variability in a nudged limited area quasi-geostrophic model: application to regional climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, H.; Drobinski, P.; Dubos, T.

    2009-09-01

    In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate nudging time on the large and small scales of an idealized limited area model simulation. The limited area model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by its « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. Compared to a previous study by Salameh et al. (2009) who investigated the existence of an optimal nudging time minimizing the error on both large and small scale in a linear model, we here use a fully non-linear model which allows us to represent the chaotic nature of the atmosphere: given the perfect quasi-geostrophic model, errors in the initial conditions, concentrated mainly in the smaller scales of motion, amplify and cascade into the larger scales, eventually resulting in a prediction with low skill. To quantify the predictability of our quasi-geostrophic model, we measure the rate of divergence of the system trajectories in phase space (Lyapunov exponent) from a set of simulations initiated with a perturbation of a reference initial state. Predictability of the "global", periodic model is mostly controlled by the beta effect. In the LAM, predictability decreases as the domain size increases. Then, the effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model” approach. Two sets of experiments were performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic LAM where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. In the two sets of experiments, the best spatial correlation between the nudge simulation and the reference is observed with a nudging time close to the predictability time.

  6. Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Maria C.; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Bugalho, Miguel N.; Werner, Christiane

    2015-10-01

    Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

  7. Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew; Kuylenstierna, Johan C. I.; Vignati, Elisabetta; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Markus; Klimont, Zbigniew; Anenberg, Susan C.; Muller, Nicholas; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Raes, Frank; Schwartz, Joel; Faluvegi, Greg; Pozzoli, Luca; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Emberson, Lisa; Streets, David; Ramanathan, V.; Hicks, Kevin; Oanh, N. T. Kim; Milly, George; Williams, Martin; Demkine, Volodymyr; Fowler, David

    2012-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide-reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

  8. Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew; Kuylenstierna, Johan C I; Vignati, Elisabetta; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Markus; Klimont, Zbigniew; Anenberg, Susan C; Muller, Nicholas; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Raes, Frank; Schwartz, Joel; Faluvegi, Greg; Pozzoli, Luca; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Emberson, Lisa; Streets, David; Ramanathan, V; Hicks, Kevin; Oanh, N T Kim; Milly, George; Williams, Martin; Demkine, Volodymyr; Fowler, David

    2012-01-13

    Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide-reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

  9. Migration of Epoxidized Soybean Oil (ESBO) and Phthalates From Twist Closures into Food and Enforcement of the Overall Migration Limit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Gitte Alsing; Jensen, Lisbeth Krüger; Fankhauser, A.

    2008-01-01

    Nineteen samples of food in glass jars with twist closures were collected by the national food inspectors at Danish food producers and a few importers, focusing on fatty food, such as vegetables in oil, herring in dressing or pickle, soft spreadable cheese, cream, dressings, peanut butter, sauces...... and infant food. The composition of the plasticizers in the gaskets was analysed by gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (GC-FID) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Epoxidized soybean oil (ESBO) and phthalates were determined in the homogenized food samples. ESBO...... was the principal plasticizer in five of the gaskets; in 14 it was phthalates. ESBO was found in seven of the food samples at concentrations from 6 to 100 mg kg(-1). The highest levels (91-100 mg kg(-1)) were in oily foods such as garlic, chilli or olives in oil. Phthalates, i.e. di-iso-decylphthalate (DIDP) and di...

  10. Tropical fish poisoning in temperate climates: food poisoning from ciguatera toxin presenting in Avonmouth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipping, Ruth; Eastcott, Howard; Sarangi, Joyshri

    2006-12-01

    Ciguatera toxin causes a range of gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and neurological symptoms that occur within 1-6 h of ingesting fish with the toxin and can last for days, months or years. It is a well-recognized problem in the tropics. Avon Health Protection Team investigated food poisoning on a ship at Avonmouth, which was thought by the crew to be related to a white snapper fish from the Caribbean. The symptoms were initially thought to be scombroid fish poisoning but were consistent with ciguatera fish poisoning. Cases of fish poisoning from fish imported from the Caribbean and Pacific or travellers returning from tropical countries may be ciguatera fish poisoning, but mistakenly diagnosed as scombroid fish poisoning.

  11. The Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Climate Risks and Opportunities in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luxon Nhamo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The discourse on the need for water, energy, and food security has dominated the development agenda of southern African countries, centred on improving livelihoods, building resilience, and regional integration. About 60% of the population in the Southern African Development Community (SADC live in rural areas relying mainly on rainfed agriculture, lacking access to clean water and energy, yet the region is endowed with vast natural resources. The water-energy-food (WEF nexus is a conceptual framework that presents opportunities for greater resource coordination, management, and policy convergence across sectors. This is particularly relevant in the SADC region as resources are transboundary and supports efforts linked to regional integration and inclusive socio-economic development and security. We conducted an appraisal of WEF-related policies and institutions in SADC and identified linkages among them. The present ‘silo’ approach in resource management and allocation, often conducted at the national level, contributes to the region’s failure to meet its development targets, exacerbating its vulnerabilities. The lack of coordination of WEF nexus synergies and trade-offs in planning often threatens the sustainability of development initiatives. We highlighted the importance of the WEF nexus to sustainably address the sectoral coordination of resources through harmonised institutions and policies, as well as setting targets and indicators to direct and monitor nexus developments. We illustrate the significance of the nexus in promoting inclusive development and transforming vulnerable communities into resilient societies. The study recommends a set of integrated assessment models to monitor and evaluate the implementation of WEF nexus targets. Going forward, we propose the adoption of a regional WEF nexus framework.

  12. Principles for the limitation of releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants to the atmosphere. A model of food chain system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pensko, J.; Stpiczynska, Z.

    1976-01-01

    On the basis of reference data the principles are set up for the limitation of releases of radioactive substances from nuclear power plants to the environment to maintain the radiation exposure of population to the level of accepted dose limits. The main attention is paid to the transfer of radionuclides released through food chain to man. For that purpose the mathematical model of population exposure by food chain which relates the radiation doses to the activity of radionuclides released is presented. The Laplace transformation is used to simplify the solution of the differential equations. It is shown that the estimation of the population exposure with the aid of a food chain mathematical model not only gives the permissible limits of release but also indicates the ways of proper radiological control program in the environment of nuclear installations. (author)

  13. Climate change: A threat towards achieving ‘Sustainable Development Goal number two’ (end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shingirai S. Mugambiwa

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to assess the impacts of climate change towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal number two (SDG 2 as well as examining the poverty alleviation strategies by subsistence farmers in South Africa. Widespread hunger and poverty continue to be among the most life-threatening problems confronting mankind. Available statistics show that global poverty remains a serious challenge around the world. Across the globe, one in five people lives on less than $1 a day and one in seven suffers from chronic hunger. Similarly, the developing world is adversely affected by poverty and hunger. In the sub-Saharan Africa, research has revealed a higher prevalence of hunger, malnutrition, poverty and food insecurity. SDG 2 focuses more on eliminating hunger and promoting sustainable agriculture. The study employed an exploratory design and a qualitative method. Snowball sampling was used in selecting relevant sources which led the researchers to other research work on the same field through keywords and reference lists. The researchers employed discourse analysis to analyse data. The study discovered that there are numerous potential effects climate change could have on agriculture. It affects crop growth and quality and livestock health. Farming practices could also be affected as well as animals that could be raised in particular climatic areas. The impact of climate change as well as the susceptibility of poor communities is very immense. The article concludes that climate change reduces access to drinking water, negatively affects the health of people and poses a serious threat to food security.

  14. [Cultural detection of thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. in food--potentials and limitations of diagnostic tools in the context of official food control].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messelhäusser, Ute; Thärigen, Diana; Fella, Christiane; Schreiner, Hermann; Busch, Ulrich; Höller, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    Thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. rank among the most important foodborne pathogens in Germany. Therefore a necessity for rapid and routinely useable detection methods exists also in the area of food microbiology. A reliable, cultura qualitative, but also quantitative detection of thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. pose a challenge, at least concerning special food matrices, especially because in the context of official food control the cultural detection of thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. is needed. This was the reason, why different cultural detection methods, beside the standard procedure of ISO 10272:2006, in combination with molecular and immunological screening methods were tested at the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority (LGL) during the last years for the use in routine diagnostic using different food matrices of animal and plant origin. The results of the comparative studies showed clearly that no enrichment broth tested gave completely satisfactory results for an only culture-based detection the combination with a screening method is therefore recommended for a rapid and reliable detection. But in this case the user should take into account that the sensitivity of such molecular and immunological methods is normally so high that in some cases, depending on the food matrix and processing step, the isolation of the pathogen would not be possible in samples, which were positive in the screening methods.

  15. BUSINESS CLIMATE OF FOOD FIRMS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMS FACED BY FOOD MANUFACTURERS, WHOLESALERS, RETAILERS AND SERVICE INSTITUTIONS IN NEW JERSEY

    OpenAIRE

    Adelaja, Adesoji O.; Nayga, Rodolfo M., Jr.; Tank, Karen Rose; Schilling, Brian J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents the problems facing food firms using information from focus groups of industry executives from New Jersey. The leading problems for food manufacturers are related to regulation, taxation, economic development, and high business costs. For food wholesalers the leading problems are transportation, regulation, labor quality, training and education, and public relations. Food retailers cite litigation and liability, high business costs, regulation, and insurance costs as leadi...

  16. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Data collected during the 2007-2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  17. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Rosol

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods: Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results: A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions: If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  18. Temporal changes in deep-sea sponge populations are correlated to changes in surface climate and food supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Amanda S.; Ruhl, Henry A.; Smith, Kenneth L.

    2012-12-01

    Density and average size of two species of abyssal sponges were analyzed at Station M (∼4100 m depth) over an 18-year time-series (1989-2006) using camera sled transects. Both sponge taxa share a similar plate-like morphology despite being within different families, and both showed similar variations in density and average body size over time, suggesting that the same factors may control the demographics of both species. Peaks in significant cross correlations between increases in particulate organic carbon flux and corresponding increases in sponge density occurred with a time lag of 13 months. Sponge density also fluctuated with changes in two climate indices: the NOI with a time lag of 18 months and NPGO with a time lag of 15 months. The results support previous suggestions that increased particulate organic carbon flux may induce recruitment or regeneration in deep-sea sponges. It is unknown whether the appearance of young individuals results from recruitment, regeneration, or both, but the population responses to seasonal and inter-annual changes in food supply demonstrate that sponge populations are dynamic and are capable of responding to inter-annual changes despite being sessile and presumably slow-growing.

  19. Recent breakthroughs and themes in hydrology, from climate to the water-food-energy nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanari, A.

    2017-12-01

    , immigration and social tensions. Water will play a fundamental role to ensure a peaceful future to humanity, provided scientists will be proactive enough to effectively advise politicians towards equity in water security and solving the water-food-energy nexus. It is a duty for scientists to make such a peaceful future happen!

  20. Limited Dissemination of Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase- and Plasmid-Encoded AmpC-Producing Escherichia coli from Food and Farm Animals, Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börjesson, Stefan; Ny, Sofia; Egervärn, Maria; Bergström, Jakob; Rosengren, Åsa; Englund, Stina; Löfmark, Sonja; Byfors, Sara

    2016-04-01

    Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)- and plasmid-encoded ampC (pAmpC)-producing Enterobacteriaceae might spread from farm animals to humans through food. However, most studies have been limited in number of isolates tested and areas studied. We examined genetic relatedness of 716 isolates from 4,854 samples collected from humans, farm animals, and foods in Sweden to determine whether foods and farm animals might act as reservoirs and dissemination routes for ESBL/pAmpC-producing Escherichia coli. Results showed that clonal spread to humans appears unlikely. However, we found limited dissemination of genes encoding ESBL/pAmpC and plasmids carrying these genes from foods and farm animals to healthy humans and patients. Poultry and chicken meat might be a reservoir and dissemination route to humans. Although we found no evidence of clonal spread of ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli from farm animals or foods to humans, ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli with identical genes and plasmids were present in farm animals, foods, and humans.

  1. Interactions of Climate Change and Nitrogen Management for Optimizing Crop Productivity and Food Security while Minimizing Nitrogen Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, E. A.; Suddick, E. C.

    2012-12-01

    Producing food, transportation, and energy for seven billion people has led to huge increases in use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuels, resulting in large releases of N as air and water pollution. In its numerous chemical forms, N plays a critical role in all aspects of climate change, including mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. Here we report on a multi-authored, interdisciplinary technical report on climate-nitrogen interactions submitted to the US National Climate Assessment as part of a Research Coordination Network activity. Management of the N cycle not only affects emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitrogen oxides (NOX), but also impacts carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), through effects on carbon cycling processes in forests and soils and the effects on atmospheric reactions of ozone (O3) and CH4. While some of these direct and indirect N effects have a short-term cooling effect, the warming effects of N2O dominate at long time scales. The challenges of mitigating N2O emissions are substantially different from those for CO2 and CH4, because N is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. On one hand, improved agricultural nutrient management can confer some adaptive capacity of crops to climatic variability, but, on the other hand, increased climatic variability will render the task more difficult to manage nutrients for the optimization of crop productivity while minimizing N losses to the environment. Higher air temperatures will result in a "climate penalty" for air quality mitigation efforts, because larger NOX emissions reductions will be needed to achieve the same reductions of O3 pollution under higher temperatures, thus imposing further challenges to avoid harmful impacts on human health and crop productivity. Changes in river discharge, due to summer drought and to extreme precipitation events, will affect the transport of N from agricultural fields to

  2. Nanoscale Coloristic Pigments: Upper Limits on Releases from Pigmented Plastic during Environmental Aging, In Food Contact, and by Leaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neubauer, Nicole; Scifo, Lorette; Navratilova, Jana; Gondikas, Andreas; Mackevica, Aiga; Borschneck, Daniel; Chaurand, Perrine; Vidal, Vladimir; Rose, Jerome; von der Kammer, Frank; Wohlleben, Wendel

    2017-10-17

    The life cycle of nanoscale pigments in plastics may cause environmental or human exposure by various release scenarios. We investigated spontaneous and induced release with mechanical stress during/after simulated sunlight and rain degradation of polyethylene (PE) with organic and inorganic pigments. Additionally, primary leaching in food contact and secondary leaching from nanocomposite fragments with an increased surface into environmental media was examined. Standardized protocols/methods for release sampling, detection, and characterization of release rate and form were applied: Transformation of the bulk material was analyzed by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), X-ray-tomography and Fourier-Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR); releases were quantified by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), single-particle-ICP-MS (sp-ICP-MS), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Analytical Ultracentrifugation (AUC), and UV/Vis spectroscopy. In all scenarios, the detectable particulate releases were attributed primarily to contaminations from handling and machining of the plastics, and were not identified with the pigments, although the contamination of 4 mg/kg (Fe) was dwarfed by the intentional content of 5800 mg/kg (Fe as Fe 2 O 3 pigment). We observed modulations (which were at least partially preventable by UV stabilizers) when comparing as-produced and aged nanocomposites, but no significant increase of releases. Release of pigments was negligible within the experimental error for all investigated scenarios, with upper limits of 10 mg/m 2 or 1600 particles/mL. This is the first holistic confirmation that pigment nanomaterials remain strongly contained in a plastic that has low diffusion and high persistence such as the polyolefin High Density Polyethylene (HDPE).

  3. The Role of Traditional Knowledge and Crop Varieties in Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in SW China, Bolivian Andes and coastal Kenya

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiderska, Krystyna; Reid, Hannah; Song, Yiching; Li, Jingsong; Mutta, Doris; Ongugo, Paul; Pakia, Mohamed; Oros, Rolando; Barriga, Sandra

    2011-09-15

    Paper prepared for the UNU-IAS workshop on Indigenous Peoples, Marginalised Populations and Climate Change: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Traditional Knowledge, Mexico, July 2011. Indigenous peoples and local communities often live in harsh natural environments, and have had to cope with extreme weather and adapt to environmental change for centuries in order to survive. They have done this using long standing traditions and practices – or traditional knowledge (TK) – relating to adaptive ecosystem management and sustainable use of natural resources. The three case studies presented provide evidence of the crucial role of traditional crop varieties, knowledge and practices in enabling adaption to changes in climate. The question is whether the climatic changes observed in these cases are human induced climate change or just natural changes. The findings show that indigenous farmers in SW China, coastal Kenya and the Bolivian Andes are already severely impacted by changes in climate, including drought, with serious consequences for crop production and food security. The scale of the changes, and the fact that they have occurred quite recently (in the last 10 or 20 years), suggests that they may be the result of human induced climate change.

  4. Macroevolutionary diversification with limited niche disparity in a species-rich lineage of cold-climate lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reaney, Ashley M; Saldarriaga-Córdoba, Mónica; Pincheira-Donoso, Daniel

    2018-02-06

    Life diversifies via adaptive radiation when natural selection drives the evolution of ecologically distinct species mediated by their access to novel niche space, or via non-adaptive radiation when new species diversify while retaining ancestral niches. However, while cases of adaptive radiation are widely documented, examples of non-adaptively radiating lineages remain rarely observed. A prolific cold-climate lizard radiation from South America (Phymaturus), sister to a hyper-diverse adaptive radiation (Liolaemus), has extensively diversified phylogenetically and geographically, but with exceptionally minimal ecological and life-history diversification. This lineage, therefore, may offer unique opportunities to investigate the non-adaptive basis of diversification, and in combination with Liolaemus, to cover the whole spectrum of modes of diversification predicted by theory, from adaptive to non-adaptive. Using phylogenetic macroevolutionary modelling performed on a newly created 58-species molecular tree, we establish the tempo and mode of diversification in the Phymaturus radiation. Lineage accumulation in Phymaturus opposes a density-dependent (or 'niche-filling') process of diversification. Concurrently, we found that body size diversification is better described by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck evolutionary model, suggesting stabilizing selection as the mechanism underlying niche conservatism (i.e., maintaining two fundamental size peaks), and which has predominantly evolved around two major adaptive peaks on a 'Simpsonian' adaptive landscape. Lineage diversification of the Phymaturus genus does not conform to an adaptive radiation, as it is characterised by a constant rate of species accumulation during the clade's history. Their strict habitat requirements (rocky outcrops), predominantly invariant herbivory, and especially the constant viviparous reproduction across species have likely limited their opportunities for adaptive diversifications throughout novel

  5. Application of the Central Limit Theorem in microbial risk assessment: High number of serving reduces the Coefficient of Variation of food-borne burden-of-illness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, F.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2012-01-01

    The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is proposed as a means of understanding microbial risk in foods from a Public Health perspective. One variant of the CLT states that as the number of random variables, each with a finite mean and variance, increases (¿8), the distribution of the sum (or mean) of those

  6. Policy instruments to decrease the climate impact of housing, personal transport and food. Detailed instrument descriptions; Ohjauskeinoja asumisen, henkiloeliikenteen ja ruoan ilmastovaikutusten hillintaeaen. Yksityiskohtaiset ohjauskeinokuvaukset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heiskanen, E.; Perrels, A.; Nissinen, A.; Berghaell, E.; Liesimaa, V.; Mattinen, M. (eds.)

    2012-03-15

    Reducing consumption volumes or introducing climate conscious consumption patterns can be efficient ways to mitigate climate change. Twenty existing policy instruments affecting the greenhouse gas emissions of housing, passenger traffic and food are described in this report of the KUILU-project. The policy instruments and the possibilities to develop effective instrument packages were discussed in two expert workshops, the results of which are presented in annexes of this report. There are already several policy instruments that target on housing and passenger traffic. Their differences in estimated emission reductions are large, which can ease the prioritization and selection of the instruments for further development. So far, only one policy instrument exists that aims to reduce the climate impacts of food choices, namely a Council of State Decision of Principle on Promoting Sustainability in Public Purchasing. However, it includes several measures that can be used to influence private companies and citizens, and thus it opens the field of policy instrument for mitigation of climate impacts of food. According to the expert survey, the most effective policy instrument involved in the analysis was building regulations, and the four most effective instruments after this were the following: gradated procurement tax of cars based on emissions, gradation of car tax, taxation of transport fuels, energy taxes of housing, and the effect of ecodesign directive on appliances. The effectiveness of policy instruments related to food was assessed to be on average level. The five least effective instruments were: EU energy label, voluntary energy experts, the tax of beverage packing, energy certificates, and subsidies for energy efficiency reparation in buildings. However, the expert opinions on the effectiveness of the policy instruments varied significantly. After this report, the KUILU project continued with an analysis of the policy instrument packages and with suggestions

  7. Policy instruments to decrease the climate impact of housing, personal transport and food. Detailed instrument descriptions; Ohjauskeinoja asumisen, henkiloeliikenteen ja ruoan ilmastovaikutusten hillintaeaen. Yksityiskohtaiset ohjauskeinokuvaukset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heiskanen, E.; Perrels, A.; Nissinen, A.; Berghaell, E.; Liesmaa, V.; Mattinen, M. (eds.)

    2012-07-01

    Reducing consumption volumes or introducing climate conscious consumption patterns can be efficient ways to mitigate climate change. Twenty existing policy instruments affecting the greenhouse gas emissions of housing, passenger traffic and food are described in this report of the KUILU-project. The policy instruments and the possibilities to develop effective instrument packages were discussed in two expert workshops, the results of which are presented in annexes of this report. There are already several policy instruments that target on housing and passenger traffic. Their differences in estimated emission reductions are large, which can ease the prioritization and selection of the instruments for further development. So far, only one policy instrument exists that aims to reduce the climate impacts of food choices, namely a Council of State Decision of Principle on Promoting Sustainability in Public Purchasing. However, it includes several measures that can be used to influence private companies and citizens, and thus it opens the field of policy instrument for mitigation of climate impacts of food. According to the expert survey, the most effective policy instrument involved in the analysis was building regulations, and the four most effective instruments after this were the following: gradated procurement tax of cars based on emissions, gradation of car tax, taxation of transport fuels, energy taxes of housing, and the effect of ecodesign directive on appliances. The effectiveness of policy instruments related to food was assessed to be on average level. The five least effective instruments were: EU energy label, voluntary energy experts, the tax of beverage packing, energy certificates, and subsidies for energy efficiency reparation in buildings. However, the expert opinions on the effectiveness of the policy instruments varied significantly. After this report, the KUILU project continued with an analysis of the policy instrument packages and with suggestions

  8. Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, David J.; Miller Hesed, Kyle; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A.W.

    2016-01-01

    Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

  9. The impact of initiatives to limit the advertising of food and beverage products to children: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith-Emami, S; Lobstein, T

    2013-12-01

    In response to increasing evidence that advertising of foods and beverages affects children's food choices and food intake, several national governments and many of the world's larger food and beverage manufacturers have acted to restrict the marketing of their products to children or to advertise only 'better for you' products or 'healthier dietary choices' to children. Independent assessment of the impact of these pledges has been difficult due to the different criteria being used in regulatory and self-regulatory regimes. In this paper, we undertook a systematic review to examine the data available on levels of exposure of children to the advertising of less healthy foods since the introduction of the statutory and voluntary codes. The results indicate a sharp division in the evidence, with scientific, peer-reviewed papers showing that high levels of such advertising of less healthy foods continue to be found in several different countries worldwide. In contrast, the evidence provided in industry-sponsored reports indicates a remarkably high adherence to voluntary codes. We conclude that adherence to voluntary codes may not sufficiently reduce the advertising of foods which undermine healthy diets, or reduce children's exposure to this advertising. © 2013 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2013 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

  10. facing the challenges of climate change and food security : the role of research, extension and communication for development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwis, C.; Hall, A.; Weperen, van W.; Preissing, J.

    2013-01-01

    In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this study defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This report is a shortened version of the final study report, produced on request of FAO. The

  11. The two-box model of climate: limitations and applications to planetary habitability and maximum entropy production studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Ralph D

    2010-05-12

    The 'two-box model' of planetary climate is discussed. This model has been used to demonstrate consistency of the equator-pole temperature gradient on Earth, Mars and Titan with what would be predicted from a principle of maximum entropy production (MEP). While useful for exposition and for generating first-order estimates of planetary heat transports, it has too low a resolution to investigate climate systems with strong feedbacks. A two-box MEP model agrees well with the observed day : night temperature contrast observed on the extrasolar planet HD 189733b.

  12. Limitation of the CO2 emissions to fight the climatic change. Challenges, prevention at the source and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Audibert, N.

    2003-01-01

    In the framework of a climatic change the CO 2 capture and sequestration is considered as an possible way of greenhouse effect gases impact decrease. Meanwhile many other actions in the energy production and consumption must also be implemented. The aim of this study is to offer a global aspect of the problem and a synthesis of bibliographic elements. The first part presents the context of the climatic change, the economical and political aspects. The second deals more specially with the actions possibilities, the energy recovery, the carbon sequestration. (A.L.B.)

  13. Ethnic disparities among food sources of energy and nutrients of public health concern and nutrients to limit in adults in the United States: NHANES 2003-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neil, Carol E; Nicklas, Theresa A; Keast, Debra R; Fulgoni, Victor L

    2014-01-01

    Identification of current food sources of energy and nutrients among US non-Hispanic whites (NHW), non-Hispanic blacks (NHB), and Mexican American (MA) adults is needed to help with public health efforts in implementing culturally sensitive and feasible dietary recommendations. The objective of this study was to determine the food sources of energy and nutrients to limit [saturated fatty acids (SFA), added sugars, and sodium] and nutrients of public health concern (dietary fiber, vitamin D, calcium, and potassium) by NHW, NHB, and MA adults. This was a cross-sectional analysis of a nationally representative sample of NWH (n=4,811), NHB (2,062), and MA (n=1,950) adults 19+ years. The 2003-2006 NHANES 24-h recall (Day 1) dietary intake data were analyzed. An updated USDA Dietary Source Nutrient Database was developed using current food composition databases. Food grouping included ingredients from disaggregated mixtures. Mean energy and nutrient intakes from food sources were sample-weighted. Percentages of total dietary intake contributed from food sources were ranked. Multiple differences in intake among ethnic groups were seen for energy and all nutrients examined. For example, energy intake was higher in MA as compared to NHB; SFA, added sugars, and sodium intakes were higher in NHW than NHB; dietary fiber was highest in MA and lowest in NHB; vitamin D was highest in NHW; calcium was lowest in NHB; and potassium was higher in NHW as compared to NHB. Food sources of these nutrients also varied. Identification of intake of nutrients to limit and of public health concern can help health professionals implement appropriate dietary recommendations and plan interventions that are ethnically appropriate.

  14. Trading off natural resources and rural livelihoods. A framework for sustainability assessment of small-scale food production in water-limited regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recanati, Francesca; Castelletti, Andrea; Dotelli, Giovanni; Melià, Paco

    2017-12-01

    Enhancing local production is key to promoting food security, especially in rural households of low-income countries, but may conflict with limited natural resources and ecosystems preservation. We propose a framework integrating the water-food nexus and a sustainable livelihoods perspective to assess small-scale food production in water-poor regions. We demonstrate it by assessing alternative production scenarios in the Gaza Strip at different spatial scales. At the scale of a single farm, there is a clear conflict among objectives: while cash crops ensure good incomes but contribute scarcely to domestic protein supply, crops performing well from the nutritional and environmental viewpoint are among the worst from the economic one. At the regional scale, domestic production might cover an important fraction of nutritional needs while contributing to household income, but water scarcity impairs the satisfaction of food demand by domestic production alone. Pursuing food security under multiple constraints thus requires a holistic perspective: we discuss how a multidimensional approach can promote the engagement of different stakeholders and allow the exploration of trade-offs between food security, sustainable exploitation of natural resources and economic viability.

  15. Possibilities and limitations of using historic provenance tests to infer forest species growth responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura P. Leites; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Andrew P. Robinson; Nicholas L. Crookston; Barry Jaquish

    2012-01-01

    Under projected changes in global climate, the growth and survival of existing forests will depend on their ability to adjust physiologically in response to environmental change. Quantifying their capacity to adjust and whether the response is species- or population-specific is important to guide forest management strategies. New analyses of historic provenance tests...

  16. Edible moisture barriers: how to assess of their potential and limits in food products shelf-life extension?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourlieu, C; Guillard, V; Vallès-Pamiès, B; Guilbert, S; Gontard, N

    2009-05-01

    Control of moisture transfer inside composite food products or between food and its environment remains today a major challenge in food preservation. A wide rage of film-forming compounds is now available and facilitates tailoring moisture barriers with optimized functional properties. Despite these huge potentials, a realistic assessment of the film or coating efficacy is still critical. Due to nonlinear water sorption isotherms, water-dependent diffusivities, and variations of physical state, modelling transport phenomena through edible barriers is complex. Water vapor permeability can hardly be considered as an inherent property of films and only gives a relative indication of the barrier efficacy. The formal or mechanistic models reported in literature that describe the influence of testing conditions on the barrier properties of edible films are reviewed and discussed. Most of these models have been validated on a narrow range of conditions. Conversely, few original predictive models based on Fick's Second Law have been developed to assess shelf-life extension of food products including barriers. These models, assuming complex and realistic hypothesis, have been validated in various model foods. The development of nondestructive methods of moisture content measurement should speed up model validation and allow a better comprehension of moisture transfer through edible films.

  17. Effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Yuqiang; Xue, Bin; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Fei; Wang, Zhen

    2017-04-01

    To date effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in planktonic food webs have rarely been studied. Recruitments of plankton have shifted earlier due to global warming. Global warming and precipitation patterns are projected to shift seasonally. Whether and how the shifts in plankton phenology induced by climate change will impact bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants, and how they will respond to climate change are largely unknown. Here, we combine data analysis of the past seven decades, high temporal resolution monitoring and model development to test this hypothesis with nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China. We find biphasic correlations between both bioconcentration factors and bioaccumulation factors of the PAHs and the mean temperature, which depend on the recruitment temperatures of cyanobacteria, and copepods and cladocerans. The positive correlations between bioconcentration factors, bioaccumulation factors and the mean temperature will be observed less than approximately 13-18 days by 2050-2060 due to the shifts in plankton phenology. The PAHs and their bioaccumulation and biomagnification will respond seasonally and differently to climate change. Bioaccumulation of most of the PAHs will decrease with global warming, with higher decreasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Biomagnification of most of the PAHs from phytoplankton to zooplankton will increase with global warming, with higher increasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Our study provides novel insights into bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in eutrophic waters under climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Can we still comply with the maximum limit of 2°C? Approaches to a New Climate Contract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Radermacher

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The international climate policy is in trouble. CO2 emissions are rising instead of shrinking. The 2025 climate summit in Paris should lead to a global agreement, but what should be its design? In an earlier paper in Cadmus on the issue, the author outlined a contract formula based on the so-called ‘Copenhagen Accord’ that is based on a dynamic cap and an intelligent burden sharing between politics and the private sector. The private sector was brought into the deal via the idea of a voluntary climate neutrality of private emissions culminating in a ‘Global Neutral’ promoted by the United Nations. All this was based on a global cap-and-trade system. For a number of reasons, it may be that a global cap-and-trade system cannot or will not be established. States may use other instruments to fulfil their promises. The present paper elaborates that even under such conditions, the basic proposal can still be implemented. This may prove useful for the Paris negotiations.

  19. Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas F. Stocker

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213 and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959. For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

  20. Determination of food colorants in a wide variety of food matrices by microemulsion electrokinetic capillary chromatography. Considerations on the found concentrations and regulated consumption limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordagaray, Ane; Garcia-Arrona, Rosa; Vidal, Maider; Ostra, Miren

    2018-10-01

    Color additives are used widely by the food industry to confer a desirable appearance. Some of the most used colorants (Tartrazine (E102), Sunset Yellow (E110), Red Allure (E129) and Blue Brilliant (E133)) were determined in this study using microemulsion electrokinetic capillary chromatography (MEEKC). Regression coefficients were greater than 0.9981; intra- and inter-day precisions, in terms of percentage RSD, were less than 7.01% and 8.55%, respectively; recoveries were between 90 and 100% in most cases. LODs and LOQs ranged from 0.24 to 1.21 mg L -1 and from 0.80 to 4.03 mg L -1 , respectively. Moreover, MEEKC consumed less solvent than HPLC, making the analysis more environmentally friendly. The proposed method is suitable for the determination of colorants in a wide variety of foods. Results showed that consumers should be aware of colorants to avoid consumption exceeding recommended amounts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Is the clinical relevance of drug-food and drug-herb interactions limited to grapefruit juice and Saint-John's Wort?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouly, Stéphane; Lloret-Linares, Célia; Sellier, Pierre-Olivier; Sene, Damien; Bergmann, J-F

    2017-04-01

    An interaction of drug with food, herbs, and dietary supplements is usually the consequence of a physical, chemical or physiologic relationship between a drug and a product consumed as food, nutritional supplement or over-the-counter medicinal plant. The current educational review aims at reminding to the prescribing physicians that the most clinically relevant drug-food interactions may not be strictly limited to those with grapefruit juice and with the Saint John's Wort herbal extract and may be responsible for changes in drug plasma concentrations, which in turn decrease efficacy or led to sometimes life-threatening toxicity. Common situations handled in clinical practice such as aging, concomitant medications, transplant recipients, patients with cancer, malnutrition, HIV infection and those receiving enteral or parenteral feeding may be at increased risk of drug-food or drug-herb interactions. Medications with narrow therapeutic index or potential life-threatening toxicity, e.g., the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, opioid analgesics, cardiovascular medications, warfarin, anticancer drugs and immunosuppressants may be at risk of significant drug-food interactions to occur. Despite the fact that considerable effort has been achieved to increase patient' and doctor's information and ability to anticipate their occurrence and consequences in clinical practice, a thorough and detailed health history and dietary recall are essential for identifying potential problems in order to optimize patient prescriptions and drug dosing on an individual basis as well as to increase the treatment risk/benefit ratio. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The effectiveness of self-regulation in limiting the advertising of unhealthy foods and beverages on children's preferred websites in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potvin Kent, Monique; Pauzé, Elise

    2018-06-01

    To assess the effectiveness of the self-regulatory Canadian Children's Food and Beverage Advertising Initiative (CAI) in limiting advertising of unhealthy foods and beverages on children's preferred websites in Canada.Design/Setting/SubjectsSyndicated Internet advertising exposure data were used to identify the ten most popular websites for children (aged 2-11 years) and determine the frequency of food/beverage banner and pop-up ads on these websites from June 2015 to May 2016. Nutrition information for advertised products was collected and their nutrient content per 100 g was calculated. Nutritional quality of all food/beverage ads was assessed using the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and UK Nutrient Profile Models (NPM). Nutritional quality of CAI and non-CAI company ads was compared using χ 2 analyses and independent t tests. About 54 million food/beverage ads were viewed on children's preferred websites from June 2015 to May 2016. Most (93·4 %) product ads were categorized as excessive in fat, Na or free sugars as per the PAHO NPM and 73·8 % were deemed less healthy according to the UK NPM. CAI-company ads were 2·2 times more likely (OR; 99 % CI) to be excessive in at least one nutrient (2·2; 2·1, 2·2, Pfood and beverage advertising on children's preferred websites in Canada. Mandatory regulations are needed.

  3. Chemical characterization of 21 species of marine macroalgae common in Norwegian waters: benefits of and limitations to their potential use in food and feed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancarosa, Irene; Belghit, Ikram; Bruckner, Christian G; Liland, Nina S; Waagbø, Rune; Amlund, Heidi; Heesch, Svenja; Lock, Erik-Jan

    2018-03-01

    In the past few years, much effort has been invested into developing a new blue economy based on harvesting, cultivating and processing marine macroalgae in Norway. Macroalgae have high potential for a wide range of applications, e.g. as source of pharmaceuticals, production of biofuels or as food and feed. However, data on the chemical composition of macroalgae from Norwegian waters are scant. This study was designed to characterize the chemical composition of 21 algal species. Both macro- and micronutrients were analysed. Concentrations of heavy metals and the metalloid arsenic in the algae were also quantified. The results confirm that marine macroalgae contain nutrients which are relevant for both human and animal nutrition, the concentrations whereof are highly dependent on species. Although heavy metals and arsenic were detected in the algae studied, concentrations were mostly below maximum allowed levels set by food and feed legislation in the EU. This study provides chemical data on a wide range of algal species covering the three taxonomic groups (brown, red and green algae) and discusses both benefits of and potential limitations to their use for food and feed purposes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  4. Food, land and greenhouse gases The effect of changes in UK food consumption on land requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. Report for the Committee on Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    Audsley, Eric; Angus, Andrew; Chatterton, Julia C.; Graves, Anil R.; Morris, Joe; Murphy-Bokern, Donal; Pearn, Kerry R.; Sandars, Daniel L.; Williams, Adrian G.

    2010-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY •1. Key findingsThis study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It a...

  5. Need for agro-ecological intelligence to limit trade-offs between global food, feed and fuel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bindraban, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Hopefully the quality of life for billions of people will improve considerably during the coming decades. This implies that the production of virtually every commodity will have to increase dramatically. Agriculture related activities ought to provide food, feed and non-edible plant-based products.

  6. Sensitivity study of heavy precipitation in Limited Area Model climate simulations: influence of the size of the domain and the use of the spectral nudging technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colin, Jeanne; Déqué, Michel; Radu, Raluca; Somot, Samuel

    2010-10-01

    We assess the impact of two sources of uncertainties in a limited area model (LAM) on the representation of intense precipitation: the size of the domain of integration and the use of the spectral nudging technique (driving of the large-scale within the domain of integration). We work in a perfect-model approach where the LAM is driven by a general circulation model (GCM) run at the same resolution and sharing the same physics and dynamics as the LAM. A set of three 50 km resolution simulations run over Western Europe with the LAM ALADIN-Climate and the GCM ARPEGE-Climate are performed to address this issue. Results are consistent with previous studies regarding the seasonal-mean fields. Furthermore, they show that neither the use of the spectral nudging nor the choice of a small domain are detrimental to the modelling of heavy precipitation in the present experiment.

  7. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

    2017-01-01

    The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national

  8. Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

    2011-01-01

    Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

  9. Parameterizing sub-surface drainage with geology to improve modeling streamflow responses to climate in data limited environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Tague

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic models are one of the core tools used to project how water resources may change under a warming climate. These models are typically applied over a range of scales, from headwater streams to higher order rivers, and for a variety of purposes, such as evaluating changes to aquatic habitat or reservoir operation. Most hydrologic models require streamflow data to calibrate subsurface drainage parameters. In many cases, long-term gage records may not be available for calibration, particularly when assessments are focused on low-order stream reaches. Consequently, hydrologic modeling of climate change impacts is often performed in the absence of sufficient data to fully parameterize these hydrologic models. In this paper, we assess a geologic-based strategy for assigning drainage parameters. We examine the performance of this modeling strategy for the McKenzie River watershed in the US Oregon Cascades, a region where previous work has demonstrated sharp contrasts in hydrology based primarily on geological differences between the High and Western Cascades. Based on calibration and verification using existing streamflow data, we demonstrate that: (1 a set of streams ranging from 1st to 3rd order within the Western Cascade geologic region can share the same drainage parameter set, while (2 streams from the High Cascade geologic region require a different parameter set. Further, we show that a watershed comprised of a mixture of High and Western Cascade geologies can be modeled without additional calibration by transferring parameters from these distinctive High and Western Cascade end-member parameter sets. More generally, we show that by defining a set of end-member parameters that reflect different geologic classes, we can more efficiently apply a hydrologic model over a geologically complex landscape and resolve geo-climatic differences in how different watersheds are likely to respond to simple warming scenarios.

  10. Can increased organic consumption mitigate climate changes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn; Andersen, Laura Mørch; Christensen, Tove

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evidence for a positive correlation between increased consumption of organic products and potential climate change mitigation via decreased consumption of meat and it is discussed to what extent organic consumption is motivated by climate...... and household heating are perceived as more important strategies. Research limitations/implications – Other food-related mitigation strategies could be investigated. The climate effect of different diets – and how to motivate consumers to pursue them – could be investigated. Individual as opposed to household...... consumers. As some consumers believe that climate change can be mitigated by consuming organic food, the authors propose that this is taken into account in the development of organic farming. Originality/value – The authors propose a shift from analysing the climate-friendliness of production to addressing...

  11. Modeling the intersections of Food, Energy, and Water in climate-vulnerable Ethiopia with an application to small-scale irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.

    2017-12-01

    Africa is home to some of the most climate vulnerable populations in the world. Energy and agricultural development have diverse impacts on the region's food security and economic well-being from the household to the national level, particularly considering climate variability and change. Our ultimate goal is to understand coupled Food-Energy-Water (FEW) dynamics across spatial scales in order to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes to FEW development strategies in Ethiopia. We are developing bottom-up and top-down multi-scale models, spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture the FEW linkages across communities and climatic adaptation zones. The focus of this presentation is the sub-national scale multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial-equilibrium model with coupled food and energy sector for Ethiopia. With fixed large-scale economic, demographic, and resource factors from the national scale computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and inferences of behavior parameters from the local scale agent-based model (ABM), the MME studies how shocks such as drought (crop failure) and development of resilience technologies would influence FEW system at a sub-national scale. The MME model is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players. It includes production, storage, and consumption of food and energy at spatially disaggregated zones, and transportation in between with endogenously modeled infrastructure. The aggregated players for each zone have different roles such as crop producers, storage managers, and distributors, who make decisions according to their own but interdependent objective functions. The food and energy supply chain across zones is therefore captured. Ethiopia is dominated by rain-fed agriculture with only 2% irrigated farmland. Small-scale irrigation has been promoted as a resilience technology that could potentially play a critical role in food security and economic well-being in

  12. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M.; Van Velthuizen, H.

    2002-08-01

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  13. Pre-exposure to simultaneous, but not individual, climate change stressors limits acclimation capacity of Irukandji jellyfish polyps to predicted climate scenarios

    KAUST Repository

    Klein, Shannon G.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Carroll, Anthony R.

    2017-01-01

    Researchers have investigated the immediate effects of end-of-century climate change scenarios on many marine species, yet it remains unclear whether we can reliably predict how marine species may respond to future conditions because biota may become either more or less resistant over time. Here, we examined the role of pre-exposure to elevated temperature and reduced pH in mitigating the potential negative effects of future ocean conditions on polyps of a dangerous Irukandji jellyfish Alatina alata. We pre-exposed polyps to elevated temperature (28 °C) and reduced pH (7.6), in a full factorial experiment that ran for 14 d. We secondarily exposed original polyps and their daughter polyps to either current (pH 8.0, 25 °C) or future conditions (pH 7.6, 28 °C) for a further 34 d to assess potential phenotypic plastic responses and whether asexual offspring could benefit from parental pre-exposure. Polyp fitness was characterised as asexual reproduction, respiration, feeding, and protein concentrations. Pre-exposure to elevated temperature alone partially mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness, while pre-exposure to reduced pH in isolation completely mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness. Pre-exposure to the dual stressors, however, reduced fitness under future conditions relative to those in the control treatment. Under future conditions, polyps had higher respiration rates regardless of the conditions they were pre-exposed to, suggesting that metabolic rates will be higher under future conditions. Parent and daughter polyps responded similarly to the various treatments tested, demonstrating that parental pre-exposure did not confer any benefit to asexual offspring under future conditions. Importantly, we demonstrate that while pre-exposure to the stressors individually may allow Irukandji polyps to acclimate over short timescales, the stressors are unlikely to occur in isolation in the long term, and

  14. Pre-exposure to simultaneous, but not individual, climate change stressors limits acclimation capacity of Irukandji jellyfish polyps to predicted climate scenarios

    KAUST Repository

    Klein, Shannon G.

    2017-05-20

    Researchers have investigated the immediate effects of end-of-century climate change scenarios on many marine species, yet it remains unclear whether we can reliably predict how marine species may respond to future conditions because biota may become either more or less resistant over time. Here, we examined the role of pre-exposure to elevated temperature and reduced pH in mitigating the potential negative effects of future ocean conditions on polyps of a dangerous Irukandji jellyfish Alatina alata. We pre-exposed polyps to elevated temperature (28 °C) and reduced pH (7.6), in a full factorial experiment that ran for 14 d. We secondarily exposed original polyps and their daughter polyps to either current (pH 8.0, 25 °C) or future conditions (pH 7.6, 28 °C) for a further 34 d to assess potential phenotypic plastic responses and whether asexual offspring could benefit from parental pre-exposure. Polyp fitness was characterised as asexual reproduction, respiration, feeding, and protein concentrations. Pre-exposure to elevated temperature alone partially mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness, while pre-exposure to reduced pH in isolation completely mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness. Pre-exposure to the dual stressors, however, reduced fitness under future conditions relative to those in the control treatment. Under future conditions, polyps had higher respiration rates regardless of the conditions they were pre-exposed to, suggesting that metabolic rates will be higher under future conditions. Parent and daughter polyps responded similarly to the various treatments tested, demonstrating that parental pre-exposure did not confer any benefit to asexual offspring under future conditions. Importantly, we demonstrate that while pre-exposure to the stressors individually may allow Irukandji polyps to acclimate over short timescales, the stressors are unlikely to occur in isolation in the long term, and

  15. Pre-exposure to simultaneous, but not individual, climate change stressors limits acclimation capacity of Irukandji jellyfish polyps to predicted climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Shannon G.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Carroll, Anthony R.

    2017-09-01

    Researchers have investigated the immediate effects of end-of-century climate change scenarios on many marine species, yet it remains unclear whether we can reliably predict how marine species may respond to future conditions because biota may become either more or less resistant over time. Here, we examined the role of pre-exposure to elevated temperature and reduced pH in mitigating the potential negative effects of future ocean conditions on polyps of a dangerous Irukandji jellyfish Alatina alata. We pre-exposed polyps to elevated temperature (28 °C) and reduced pH (7.6), in a full factorial experiment that ran for 14 d. We secondarily exposed original polyps and their daughter polyps to either current (pH 8.0, 25 °C) or future conditions (pH 7.6, 28 °C) for a further 34 d to assess potential phenotypic plastic responses and whether asexual offspring could benefit from parental pre-exposure. Polyp fitness was characterised as asexual reproduction, respiration, feeding, and protein concentrations. Pre-exposure to elevated temperature alone partially mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness, while pre-exposure to reduced pH in isolation completely mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness. Pre-exposure to the dual stressors, however, reduced fitness under future conditions relative to those in the control treatment. Under future conditions, polyps had higher respiration rates regardless of the conditions they were pre-exposed to, suggesting that metabolic rates will be higher under future conditions. Parent and daughter polyps responded similarly to the various treatments tested, demonstrating that parental pre-exposure did not confer any benefit to asexual offspring under future conditions. Importantly, we demonstrate that while pre-exposure to the stressors individually may allow Irukandji polyps to acclimate over short timescales, the stressors are unlikely to occur in isolation in the long term, and

  16. Development of a survey tool to assess and monitor the influence of food budget restraint on healthy eating, food related climate impact and quality of life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Annemette Ljungdalh; Holm, Lotte; Lund, Thomas Bøker

    This documentation describes the development of a survey tool designed to: 1) measure how different levels of constraints on food budgets are associated to outcomes of healthy eating, environmental sustainability and life quality for individuals in Denmark, and 2) explore how these different...... outcomes are related to strategies people employ to cope with restricted food budgets. The resulting survey consists of a total of 63 question items. The paper lays out the various steps involved in the process of developing the survey tool, presents the final survey items included in the tool...

  17. Using nudging to improve global-regional dynamic consistency in limited-area climate modeling: What should we nudge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

    2015-03-01

    Regional climate modelling sometimes requires that the regional model be nudged towards the large-scale driving data to avoid the development of inconsistencies between them. These inconsistencies are known to produce large surface temperature and rainfall artefacts. Therefore, it is essential to maintain the synoptic circulation within the simulation domain consistent with the synoptic circulation at the domain boundaries. Nudging techniques, initially developed for data assimilation purposes, are increasingly used in regional climate modeling and offer a workaround to this issue. In this context, several questions on the "optimal" use of nudging are still open. In this study we focus on a specific question which is: What variable should we nudge? in order to maintain the consistencies between the regional model and the driving fields as much as possible. For that, a "Big Brother Experiment", where a reference atmospheric state is known, is conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Euro-Mediterranean region. A set of 22 3-month simulations is performed with different sets of nudged variables and nudging options (no nudging, indiscriminate nudging, spectral nudging) for summer and winter. The results show that nudging clearly improves the model capacity to reproduce the reference fields. However the skill scores depend on the set of variables used to nudge the regional climate simulations. Nudging the tropospheric horizontal wind is by far the key variable to nudge to simulate correctly surface temperature and wind, and rainfall. To a lesser extent, nudging tropospheric temperature also contributes to significantly improve the simulations. Indeed, nudging tropospheric wind or temperature directly impacts the simulation of the tropospheric geopotential height and thus the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. Nudging moisture improves the precipitation but the impact on the other fields (wind and temperature) is not significant. As

  18. When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

    2018-01-01

    Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen

  19. Chemical characterization of 21 species of marine macroalgae common in Norwegian waters: benefits of and limitations to their potential use in food and feed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancarosa, Irene; Belghit, Ikram; Bruckner, Christian G; Liland, Nina S; Waagbø, Rune; Amlund, Heidi; Heesch, Svenja

    2018-01-01

    Abstract BACKGROUND In the past few years, much effort has been invested into developing a new blue economy based on harvesting, cultivating and processing marine macroalgae in Norway. Macroalgae have high potential for a wide range of applications, e.g. as source of pharmaceuticals, production of biofuels or as food and feed. However, data on the chemical composition of macroalgae from Norwegian waters are scant. This study was designed to characterize the chemical composition of 21 algal species. Both macro‐ and micronutrients were analysed. Concentrations of heavy metals and the metalloid arsenic in the algae were also quantified. RESULTS The results confirm that marine macroalgae contain nutrients which are relevant for both human and animal nutrition, the concentrations whereof are highly dependent on species. Although heavy metals and arsenic were detected in the algae studied, concentrations were mostly below maximum allowed levels set by food and feed legislation in the EU. CONCLUSION This study provides chemical data on a wide range of algal species covering the three taxonomic groups (brown, red and green algae) and discusses both benefits of and potential limitations to their use for food and feed purposes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. PMID:29193189

  20. The Impact Of Climate Change On Production Of Multiple Food Crops In The 21st Century- An Analysis Based On Two Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Jain, A. K.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change presents potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of climate change effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected climate change trends and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to climate change and adaptive management practices and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate crop adaptation to climate change. We apply the process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of climate change on the production of row crops (corn, soybean, rice, cotton, sugarcane and wheat) at global and regional scales. The results are compared to the corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of crop adaptation and adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do model differences in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices over the 21st century. ISAM and CLM4.5 have been included in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Both models consider the effects of temperature, light and soil water and nitrogen availability on crop photosynthesis and temperature control on crop phenology and carbon allocation. ISAM also considers the adaptation of crop phenology, carbon allocation and structures growth to drought, light stress and N stress. The effects of model differences on projected crop production are evaluated by performing the following experiments. Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005) and projected atmospheric forcing data (2006-2100) under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different

  1. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.