Full Text Available In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE. LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.
Erwin, Patricia J
On June 3-5, 2008, international organizations and heads of state met in Rome to discuss the critical situation in global food supplies and prices during the World Food Crisis Summit. The intent of this column is to provide approaches to identifying the complex issues that impact public health, public safety, and nutrition on a global basis. The Web sites selected provide a background for the complex issues involved (energy, climate and environment, agriculture, and politics) and reveal controversial and competing agendas with many far-reaching implications.
Gany, Francesca; Bari, Sehrish; Crist, Michael; Moran, Alyssa; Rastogi, Natasha; Leng, Jennifer
Rates of food insecurity are high among medically underserved patients. We analyzed food pantry responsiveness to the needs of medically ill cancer patients in New York City with the intent ofidentifying barriers to available food resources. Our data, collected from 60 pantries, suggest that the emergency food system is currently unable to accommodate patient needs. Accessibility issues include restricted service hours and documentation requirements. Food services were limited in quantity of food provided and the number of nutritious, palatable options. Additional emergency food resources and long-term approaches that provide ongoing food support to patients throughout their treatment period are needed.
Margaret C. Nelson; Ingram, Scott E.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Streeter, Richard; Matthew A. Peeples; McGovern, Thomas H.; Hegmon, Michelle; Arneborg, Jette; Keith W. Kintigh; Brewington, Seth; Spielmann, Katherine A.; Simpson, Ian A; Strawhacker, Colleen; Comeau, Laura E. L.; Torvinen, Andrea
Climate-induced disasters are impacting human well-being in ever-increasing ways. Disaster research and management recognize and emphasize the need to reduce vulnerabilities, although extant policy is not in line with this realization. This paper assesses the extent to which vulnerability to food shortage, as a result of social, demographic, and resource conditions at times of climatic challenge, correlates with subsequent declines in social and food security. Extreme climate challenges are i...
Gany, Francesca; Bari, Sehrish; Crist, Michael; Moran, Alyssa; Rastogi, Natasha; Leng, Jennifer
Rates of food insecurity are high among medically underserved patients. We analyzed food pantry responsiveness to the needs of medically ill cancer patients in New York City with the intent ofidentifying barriers to available food resources. Our data, collected from 60 pantries, suggest that the emergency food system is currently unable to accommodate patient needs. Accessibility issues include restricted service hours and documentation requirements. Food services were limited in quantity of ...
Stern, Paul C.
Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…
Lipper, Leslie; Thornton, Philip; Campbell, Bruce M.; Baedeker, Tobias; Braimoh, Ademola; Bwalya, Martin; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Garrity, Dennis; Henry, Kevin; Hottle, Ryan; Jackson, Louise; Jarvis, Andrew; Kossam, Fred; Mann, Wendy; McCarthy, Nancy; Meybeck, Alexandre; Neufeldt, Henry; Remington, Tom; Sen, Pham Thi; Sessa, Reuben; Shula, Reynolds; Tibu, Austin; Torquebiau, Emmanuel F.
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change. Widespread changes in rainfall and temperature patterns threaten agricultural production and increase the vulnerability of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, which includes most of the world's poor. Climate change disrupts food markets, posing population-wide risks to food supply. Threats can be reduced by increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers as well as increasing resilience and resource use efficiency in agricultural production systems. CSA promotes coordinated actions by farmers, researchers, private sector, civil society and policymakers towards climate-resilient pathways through four main action areas: (1) building evidence; (2) increasing local institutional effectiveness; (3) fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and (4) linking climate and agricultural financing. CSA differs from 'business-as-usual' approaches by emphasizing the capacity to implement flexible, context-specific solutions, supported by innovative policy and financing actions.
Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.
Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.
Nelson, Margaret C; Ingram, Scott E; Dugmore, Andrew J; Streeter, Richard; Peeples, Matthew A; McGovern, Thomas H; Hegmon, Michelle; Arneborg, Jette; Kintigh, Keith W; Brewington, Seth; Spielmann, Katherine A; Simpson, Ian A; Strawhacker, Colleen; Comeau, Laura E L; Torvinen, Andrea; Madsen, Christian K; Hambrecht, George; Smiarowski, Konrad
This paper identifies rare climate challenges in the long-term history of seven areas, three in the subpolar North Atlantic Islands and four in the arid-to-semiarid deserts of the US Southwest. For each case, the vulnerability to food shortage before the climate challenge is quantified based on eight variables encompassing both environmental and social domains. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between the "weight" of vulnerability before a climate challenge and the nature of social change and food security following a challenge. The outcome of this work is directly applicable to debates about disaster management policy.
Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.
Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.
Brown, M. E.
The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used
... report card Careers Archives Pregnancy Before or between pregnancies Nutrition, weight & fitness Prenatal care Is it safe? Labor & ... more. Stony Point, NY 10980 Close X Home > Pregnancy > Nutrition, weight & fitness > Foods to avoid or limit during ...
Pulwarty, Roger; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James
By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.
Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn
In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate
Olumide D. Onafeso
Full Text Available Decadal variability in African rainfall is projected from General Circulation Models (GCMs to continue under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. Effects on rain intensity, spatio-temporal variability of growing seasons, flooding, drought, and land-use change impose feedbacks at regional-local scales. Yet, empirical knowledge of associated impacts on crop yield is limited; thus, we examined the imperatives for food security in Nigeria. Bivariate correlation and multiple regression suggests impending drought in the northern region where livestock farming is predominant. Relative contributions of climate independent variables in determining crop yield by backward selection procedures with stepwise approach indexed the impacts of annual climate variability by a parameter computed as annual yield minus mean annual yield divided by the standard deviation. Results show Z-distribution approximately 5 to + 5, when 3 indicate impacts significant at 95% confidence levels. In conclusion, we established the interwoven relationship between climatic change and food security.
Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika; Grigg, Megan
Using Tiffany's (1990) cognitive model of drug use and craving as a theoretical basis, the present experiments investigated whether cravings for food expend limited cognitive resources. Cognitive performance was assessed by simple reaction time (Experiment 1) and an established measure of working memory capacity, the operation span task…
Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Walsh, Margaret; Hauser, Rachel; Murray, Anthony; Jadin, Jenna; Baklund, Peter; Robinson, Paula
Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.
Santos, A.; Gunnarsen, Lars Bo
This report presents experimental data and models for optimisation of the indoor climate parameters temperature, noise, draught and window opening. Results are based on experiments with human subjects performed in climate chambers at University of the Philippines. The report may assist building...... designers to balance attention and resources between the parameters of the indoor climate when resources are less than optimal....
Climate change has a profound impact on agriculture and on food security. At the same time agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Fortunately there is also much to gain since the agricultural sector holds significant climate change mitigation potential through reductions
This thesis relates to climate agreements and cost efficiency by analysing the formation of a system of quota leading to distributed discharge of emissions between countries. Main fields concerned are the greenhouse effect, the political process, efficient and cost-effective climate agreements, and climate agreements under limited participation, asymmetric information and market imperfections covering fields like limited participation in climate agreements, limited participation and indirect impact on non-participating countries` emissions, limited participation and direct impact on non-participating countries` emissions under asymmetric information, and non-competitive market for tradeable quotas. 166 refs., 7 tabs.
Plants are permanently impacted by their environments, and their abilities to tolerate multiple fluctuating environmental conditions vary as a function of several genetic and natural factors. Over the past decades, scientific innovations and applications of the knowledge derived from biotechnological investigations to agriculture caused a substantial increase of the yields of many crops. However, due to exacerbating effects of climate change and a growing human population, a crisis of malnutrition may arise in the upcoming decades in some places in the world. So, effective, ethical and managerial regulations and fair policies should be set up and applied at the local and global levels so that Earth may fairly provide the food and living accommodation needed by its inhabitants. To save some energy consumption, electric devices (for e.g., smartphones, laptops, street lights, traffic lights, etc.) should be manufactured to work with solar energy, whenever available, particularly in sunny countries where sun is available most of the time. Such characteristic will save energy and make solar energy-based smartphones and laptops less cumbersome in terms of chargers and plugging issues.
Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth
Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used...... in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production...... as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across...
Balaghi, R.; Badjeck, M.C.; Bakari, D.; Pauw, de E.D.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Defourny, P.; Donato, S.; Gommes, R.; Jlibene, M.; Ravelo, A.C.; Sivakumar, M.V.K.; Telahigue, N.; Tychon, B.
Food security is expected to face increasing challenges from climatic risks that are more and more exacerbated by climate change, especially in the developing world. This document lists some of the main capabilities that have been recently developed, especially in the area of operational agroclimato
Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D
Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.
Hertel, T. W.; Taheripour, F.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.; Sahin, S.; Escurra, J.
This paper uses an advanced CGE model (Taheripour et al., 2013) coupled with hydrological projections of future water scarcity and biophysical data on likely crop yields under climate change to examine how water scarcity, climate change, and trade jointly alter land use changes across the Indian subcontinent. Climate shocks to rainfed and irrigated yields in 2030 are based on the p-DSSAT crop model, RCP 2.6, as reported under the AgMIP project (Rosenzweig et al., 2013), accessed through GEOSHARE (Villoria et al, 2014). Results show that, when water scarcity is ignored, irrigated areas grow in the wake of climate change as the returns to irrigation rise faster than for rainfed uses of land within a given agro-ecological zone. When non-agricultural competition for future water use, as well as anticipated supply side limitations are brought into play (Rosegrant et al., 2013), the opportunity cost of water rises across all river basins, with the increase ranging from 12% (Luni) to 44% (Brahmaputra). As a consequence, irrigated crop production is curtailed in most regions (Figure 1), with the largest reductions coming in the most water intensive crops, namely rice and wheat. By reducing irrigated area, which tends to have much higher yields, the combined effects of water scarcity and climate impacts require an increase in total cropped area, which rises by about 240,000 ha. The majority of this area expansion occurs in the Ganges, Indus, and Brahmari river basins. Overall crop output falls by about 2 billion, relative to the 2030 baseline, with imports rising by about 570 million. The combined effects of climate change and water scarcity for irrigation also have macro-economic consequences, resulting in a 0.28% reduction in GDP and an increase in the consumer price index by about 0.4% in 2030, compared the baseline. The national welfare impact on India amounts to roughly 3 billion (at 2007 prices) in 2030. Assuming a 3% social discount rate, the net present value of the
Nguyen Thi Hong Bach Lien; Shatokhina, Anastasia Olegovna
Due to economic renovation in 1986, Vietnam has gained a number of convincing social-economic achievements. One of the factors determining the success of Vietnam's economy is the support of foreign direct investment. Thus, the study and analysis of the determinants, affecting the ability to attract foreign investment have become more practically oriented and necessary. The main purpose of the article is to clarify the definition of investment climate and its characteristics in Vietnam. The ar...
Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard
In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of
Brown, Molly E.; Hintermann, Beat; Higgins, Nathaniel
West Africa is one of the most food insecure regions of the world. Sharply increased food and energy prices in 2008 brought the role of markets in food access and availability around the world into the spotlight, particularly in urban areas. The period of high prices had the immediate consequence of sharply increasing the number of hungry people in the region without boosting farmer incomes significantly. In this article, the interaction between markets, food prices, agricultural technology and development is explored in the context of West Africa. To improve food security in West Africa, sustained commitment to investment in the agriculture sector will be needed to provide some protection against global swings in both production and world markets. Climate change mitigation programs are likely to force global energy and commodity price increases in the coming decades, putting pressure on regions like West Africa to produce more food locally to ensure stability in food security for the most vulnerable.
Successfully addressing global climate change effects on agriculture will require a holistic, sustained approach incorporating a suite of strategies at multiple spatial scales and time horizons. In the USA of the 1930’s, bold and innovative leadership at high levels of government was needed to enact...
Ebi, K. L.
Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Raamsdonk, van L.W.D.; Eijkeren, van J.C.H.; Meijer, G.A.L.; Rennen, M.; Zeilmaker, M.J.; Hoogenboom, L.A.P.; Mengelers, M.J.B.
The carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is an important aspect of the animal production chain. For a proper containment, limits for feed as well food products are fixed for a series of chemicals, e.g. dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs, lead, cadmium, some chlorinated pesticides,
Dixon, Jane M; Donati, Kelly J; Pike, Lucy L; Hattersley, Libby
Affluent diets have negative effects on the health of the population and the environment. Moreover, the ability of industrialised agricultural ecosystems to continue to supply these diets is threatened by the anticipated consequences of climate change. By challenging the ongoing supply the diets of affluent countries, climate change provides a population and environmental health opportunity. This paper contrasts two strategies for dealing with climate change-related food insecurity. Functional foods are being positioned as one response because they are considered a hyper-efficient mechanism for supplying essential micronutrients. An alternative response is civic and urban agriculture. Rather than emphasising increased economic or nutritional efficiencies, civic agriculture presents a holistic approach to food security that is more directly connected to the economic, environmental and social factors that affect diet and health.
Full Text Available Background:All foods are imported to markets in smaller islands in the Caribbean. Before export of foods to these destinations, the foods are subjected to several preservative procedures like irradiation, pesticide spray and prolonged refrigeration etc., to last the extended transport periods. This reduces availability of protective elements and the nutrient contents of the foods to scanty levels,especially to common people with low and middle incomes. Hence the majority of people in these categories on the small islands become vulnerable to ill health. Aims and Objectives: To assess 1. Food availability 2. Normal transport period for foods to reach from the suppliers, and 3. Current level of prevalence of non-infective chronic diseases in the area. Methods: Data were collected from two sources. One set of data was collected from the three supermarkets on the island to obtain information on source, transport time and nature of foods imported; and the second from 200 randomly selected responses of diseased persons for information on the age, gender and cause of death. Results: All the foods were imported and the time taken for the food (including protective foods to reach the island was about 3 weeks. The major causes of death were malignancy (30%, diabetes and its complications (25%, cardio vascular diseases (19.5%, STD / HIV (8.5% and other causes (17.0%. A review of prevalence of chronic diseases like hypertension, diabetes, heart diseases, arthritis and associated functional limitations, in the region reveals that their prevalence is proportionately high on the island compared to nearby developed mainland Functional Foods in Health and Disease 2011; 7:222-231 regions. Body mass index of ≥25 was reported to be as high as 58.3%. The health care facilitiesavailable are seen to be limited and public health activity to prevent or manage the prevailing chronic health issues, appeared to be meager. Conclusion: There is a need to address the
Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.
Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact
stability in Kenya , they typically focus on climatic conditions in Kenya . Yet just as El Niño in the tropical Pacific can lead to colder and wetter...global food prices in constant dollar terms, as well as the proportion of cereal staples (maize, rice , wheat, etc.) traded as a percent of total...populous countries run large rice trade surpluses – such as Thailand and Vietnam – the region as a whole is import dependent.18 Over time, Africa and
Full Text Available Globally is wasted about one third of total food produced per year. The losses are borne along the entire food chain from “farm to fork”. The phenomenon requires an analysis and monitoring of the impact due to continuous development of food sector. Food losses and its waste have an impact on the sustainability of food systems in all three dimensions: economic, social and environmental. Irrational use of food beyond the amount of losses, is a threat to our environment because of excessive consumption of natural resources and is a causes of unmet nutritional needs of societies. The aim of the study was to determine the causes of losses and wastage in the food chain and categorization as well as taking into account recovery capabilities. As follows from the analysis presented in the work some of the reasons for food losses and waste are well known, possible limitations. Therefore, we should seek ways of recovering of food products and using them as intended. One way may be the transfer of food for social purposes, which also affects the sustainability of development in this sector due to social aspects.
Thiaw, W. M.
Drought is one of the greatest challenges in Africa due to its impact on access to sanitary water and food. In response to this challenge, the international community has mobilized to develop famine early warning systems (FEWS) to bring safe food and water to populations in need. Over the past several decades, much attention has focused on advance risk planning in agriculture and water. This requires frequent updates of weather and climate outlooks. This paper describes the active role of NOAA's African Desk in FEWS. Emphasis is on the operational products from short and medium range weather forecasts to subseasonal and seasonal outlooks in support of humanitarian relief programs. Tools to provide access to real time weather and climate information to the public are described. These include the downscaling of the U.S. National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) to improve seasonal forecasts in support of Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs). The subseasonal time scale has emerged as extremely important to many socio-economic sectors. Drawing from advances in numerical models that can now provide a better representation of the MJO, operational subseasonal forecasts are included in the African Desk product suite. These along with forecasts skill assessment and verifications are discussed. The presentation will also highlight regional hazards outlooks basis for FEWSNET food security outlooks.
Muldowney, J; Mounsey, J; Kinsella, L
With the human population predicted to reach nine billion by 2050, demand for food is predicted to more than double over this time period, a trend which will lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Furthermore, expansion in food production is predicted to occur primarily in the developing world, where adaptation to climate change may be more difficult and opportunities to mitigate emissions limited. In the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 'ensuring that food production is not threatened' is explicitly mentioned in the objective of the Convention. However, the focus of negotiations under the Convention has largely been on reducing GHG emissions from energy, and industrial activities and realizing the potential of forestry as a carbon sink. There has been little attention by the UNFCCC to address the challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector. Since 2006, concerted efforts have been made to raise the prominence of agriculture within the negotiations. The most recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and 'The Emissions Gap Report' by the UNEP highlighted the significant mitigation potential of agriculture, which can help contribute towards keeping global temperature rises below the 2°C limit agreed in Cancun. Agriculture has to be a part of the solution to address climate change, but this will also require a focus on how agriculture systems can adapt to climate change in order to continue to increase food output. However, to effectively realize this potential, systematic and dedicated discussion and decisions within the UNFCCC are needed. UNFCCC discussions on a specific agriculture agenda item started in 2012, but are currently inconclusive. However, Parties are generally in agreement on the importance of agriculture in contributing to food security and employment as well as the need to improve understanding of agriculture and how it can contribute to
Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M
Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality = -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.
Melanie A Harsch
Full Text Available Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality = -5 with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C, dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm. Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.
Mátyás, Csaba; Sun, Ge
The debate on ecological and climatic benefits of planted forests at the sensitive dry edge of the closed forest belt (i.e. at the ‘xeric limits’) is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, accumulate biomass, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously dominated by grassland or cropland can dramatically alter the energy and water balances at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts and growing extremes due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. We investigated some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of forests and potential impacts of climate change at the dryland margins of the temperate-continental zone using case studies from China, the United States and SE Europe (Hungary). We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effects of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of forestation on water resources might be negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events is likely to reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest management and forestation planning should be adjusted to the local, projected hydrologic and climatic conditions, and should also consider non-forest alternative land uses.
Melo, J W S; Lima, D B; Sabelis, M W; Pallini, A; Gondim, M G C
Ambulatory movement of plant-feeding mites sets limits to the distances they can cover to reach a new food source. In absence of food-related cues these limits are determined by survival, walking activity, walking path tortuosity and walking speed, whereas in presence of food the limits are also determined by the ability to orient and direct the path towards the food source location. For eriophyoid mites such limits are even more severe because they are among the smallest mites on earth, because they have only two pairs of legs and because they are very sensitive to desiccation. In this article we test how coconut mites (Aceria guerreronis Keifer) are constrained in their effective displacement by their ability to survive in absence of food (meristematic tissue under the coconut perianth) and by their ability to walk and orient in absence or presence of food-related cues. We found that the mean survival time decreased with increasing temperature and decreasing humidity. Under climatic conditions representative for the Tropics (27 °C and 75 % relative humidity) coconut mites survived on average for 11 h and covered 0.4 m, representing the effective linear displacement away from the origin. Within a period of 5 h, coconut mites collected from old fruits outside the perianth moved further away from the origin than mites collected under the perianth of young fruits. However, in the presence of food-related cues coconut mites traveled over 30 % larger distances than in absence of these cues. These results show that ambulatory movement of eriophyoid mites may well bring them to other coconuts within the same bunch and perhaps also to other bunches on the same coconut palm, but it is unlikely to help them move from palm to palm, given that palms usually do not touch each other.
Hickey, Sharyn M.
Ecological (poleward) regime shifts are a predicted response to climate change and have been well documented in terrestrial and more recently ocean species. Coastal zones are amongst the most susceptible ecosystems to the impacts of climate change, yet studies particularly focused on mangroves are lacking. Recent studies have highlighted the critical ecosystem services mangroves provide, yet there is a lack of data on temporal global population response. This study tests the notion that mangroves are migrating poleward at their biogeographical limits across the globe in line with climate change. A coupled systematic approach utilising literature and land surface and air temperature data was used to determine and validate the global poleward extent of the mangrove population. Our findings indicate that whilst temperature (land and air) have both increased across the analysed time periods, the data we located showed that mangroves were not consistently extending their latitudinal range across the globe. Mangroves, unlike other marine and terrestrial taxa, do not appear to be experiencing a poleward range expansion despite warming occurring at the present distributional limits. Understanding failure for mangroves to realise the global expansion facilitated by climate warming may require a focus on local constraints, including local anthropogenic pressures and impacts, oceanographic, hydrological, and topographical conditions.
Parker, Robert; Hales, Tristram; Mudd, Simon; Grieve, Stuart
Projected increases in future storminess, associated with anthropogenically-driven climate change, are expected to produce an increase in landslide frequency and hazards. This prediction relies on an implicit and poorly tested assumption, that landslide frequency is limited by the effectiveness of landslide triggers (pore-pressure events determined by the intensity and duration of storms). Using an unprecedented field dataset of hillslope soil depths and ages (attained through radiocarbon dating) from the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), we show that this assumption is not valid in this landscape. Instead, landslide frequency is limited by rates of soil production and transport processes, which prepare sites for future landsliding. By simulating the evolution of Appalachian hillslopes, we demonstrate that unless climate change can drive an increase in soil production and transport rates, an increase in future storminess will have little effect on long-term landslide frequency, while individual storms will trigger fewer and smaller landslides.
van Raamsdonk LWD.
Full Text Available The carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is an important aspect of the animal production chain. For a proper containment, limits for feed as well food products are fixed for a series of chemicals, e.g. dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs, lead, cadmium, some chlorinated pesticides, and aflatoxin B1 (and its metabolite M1 in milk. The relationship between feed and food limits is an important issue. An ideal goal is to assure that compliance to a feed limits automatically results in compliance to food limits. In order to collect information about this relationship, several simulation models and a large database on transfer factors have been developed. An optimal choice between either a model or an application of data from the Transfer Database is based on both the knowledge level, and on the circumstances of the specific situation. To reach and validate such an optimal choice an Expert System Carry-Over is currently in development, containing four different modules: 1 the different calculation models and the Transfer Database, 2 a decision tree for choosing the optimal strategy, 3 data tables indicating knowledge levels of compound/animal/product parameters, and 4 supporting databases containing information on consumption and composition of daily diets, animal parameters, and amounts of (daily production. Calculations indicate that for dioxins compliance to feed levels does not necessarily mean that food limits are complied as well. Besides an estimation of the compliance to limits, the expert system is a tool for feed related risk assessments, and for planning of future research.
Full Text Available Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming, whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.
Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.
The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the
Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua
The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.
Bajželj, Bojana; Richards, Keith S.; Allwood, Julian M.; Smith, Pete; Dennis, John S.; Curmi, Elizabeth; Gilligan, Christopher A.
Recent studies show that current trends in yield improvement will not be sufficient to meet projected global food demand in 2050, and suggest that a further expansion of agricultural area will be required. However, agriculture is the main driver of losses of biodiversity and a major contributor to climate change and pollution, and so further expansion is undesirable. The usual proposed alternative--intensification with increased resource use--also has negative effects. It is therefore imperative to find ways to achieve global food security without expanding crop or pastureland and without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Some authors have emphasized a role for sustainable intensification in closing global `yield gaps' between the currently realized and potentially achievable yields. However, in this paper we use a transparent, data-driven model, to show that even if yield gaps are closed, the projected demand will drive further agricultural expansion. There are, however, options for reduction on the demand side that are rarely considered. In the second part of this paper we quantify the potential for demand-side mitigation options, and show that improved diets and decreases in food waste are essential to deliver emissions reductions, and to provide global food security in 2050.
Aarestrup, Frank Møller
Large amounts of antimicrobial agents are in the production of food animals used for therapy and prophylactics of bacterial infections and in feed to promote growth. The use of antimicrobial agents causes problems in the therapy of infections through the selection for resistance among bacteria...... pathogenic for animals or humans. Current knowledge regarding the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in food animals, the quantitative impact of the use of different antimicrobial agents on selection for resistance and the most appropriate treatment regimes to limit the development of resistance......, there are major differences between programmes designed to detect changes in a national population, individual herds or groups of animals. In addition, programmes have to be designed differently according to whether the aim is to determine changes in resistance for all antimicrobial agents or only...
Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.
Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.
Idels, L V
We will introduce the biological motivation of the $\\gamma$- food-limited model with variable parameters. New criteria are established for the existence and global stability of positive periodic solutions. To prove the existence of steady-state solutions, we used the upper-lower solution method where the existence of at least one positive periodic solution is obtained by constructing a pair of upper and lower solutions and application of the Friedreichs Theorem. Numerical simulations illustrate effects of periodic variation in the values of the basic biological and environmental parameters and how the adaptive harvesting strategies affect fishing stocks.
So, Shuhei; Tokumaru, Takaaki; Miyahara, Kohji; Ohshima, Yasumi
The increased lifespan caused by food limitation has been observed in a wide range of animals including the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. We show here that the lifespans of eat-2 and eat-5 feeding-defective mutants and a mutant of dbl-1 encoding a TGFβ ligand significantly change between the cultures fed on Escherichia coli strain OP50 or a more nutrient-rich strain HB101. On HB101 food, the eat-2, eat-5 and dbl-1 mutants show increased lifespan compared to that of the wild type. This result is probably due to nutrient limitation because the eat mutations reduce food uptake and the mutation of dbl-1 that regulates expression of several digestive enzymes leads to nutrient limitation. In contrast, the lifespans of the eat-2 and dbl-1 mutants decreased from that of the wild type on OP50 food. We found that live OP50 cells within a worm were markedly more in these mutants than in the wild type, which suggests that impaired digestion of pathogenic OP50 decreased lifespan in the eat-2 and dbl-1 mutants.
Cassman, Kenneth G.
There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed . The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data
Rickard, Ian J; Holopainen, Jari; Helama, Samuli; Helle, Samuli; Russell, Andrew F; Lummaa, Virpi
Environmental conditions in early life can profoundly affect individual development and have consequences for reproductive success. Limited food availability may be one of the reasons for this, but direct evidence linking variation in early-life nutrition to reproductive performance in adulthood in natural populations is sparse. We combined historical agricultural data with detailed demographic church records to investigate the effect of food availability around the time of birth on the reproductive success of 927 men and women born in 18th-century Finland. Our study population exhibits natural mortality and fertility rates typical of many preindustrial societies, and individuals experienced differing access to resources due to social stratification. We found that among both men and women born into landless families (i.e., with low access to resources), marital prospects, probability of reproduction, and offspring viability were all positively related to local crop yield during the birth year. Such effects were generally absent among those born into landowning families. Among landless individuals born when yields of the two main crops, rye and barley, were both below median, only 50% of adult males and 55% of adult females gained any reproductive success in their lifetime, whereas 97% and 95% of those born when both yields were above the median did so. Our results suggest that maternal investment in offspring in prenatal or early postnatal life may have profound implications for the evolutionary fitness of human offspring, particularly among those for which resources are more limiting. Our study adds support to the idea that early nutrition can limit reproductive success in natural animal populations, and provides the most direct evidence to date that this process applies to humans.
The objective of this paper is to present and discuss Brazilian policy concerning actions to protect breastfeeding, especially the history, international and national background, limitations, and perspectives of the Brazilian Guidelines for the Marketing of Baby Food, Pacifiers and Bottles. The Brazilian Guidelines, which play a crucial role in protecting breastfeeding against industry marketing strategies, were based on the International Code of Marketing of Breastmilk Substitutes, proposed by the World Health Organization in 1981. The first version of the Brazilian Guidelines was released in 1988, and there were subsequent revisions in 1992 and 2001/2002. In 2006, the Guidelines became national law. However, the strides made over this period in terms of regulation have been few because the law is not always observed. Thus, it is essential that all actors involved, including government officials, manufacturers and sellers of baby food and other baby products, teaching and health professionals and their associations, international bodies, and non-governmental organizations make a commitment to enforce the current law.
Brookshire, J.; Gerber, S.; Menge, D.
Researchers have long observed that rates of plant growth, litter fall, and decomposition are generally higher in tropical forests than temperate forests. On one hand, this broad geographic pattern has a seemingly simple and intuitive explanation: perennially warm temperatures and ample rainfall in tropical latitudes promote luxuriant vegetative growth and rapid litter decomposition relative to temperate latitudes. However, temperature and moisture also affect other ecosystem processes, which are known to affect plant growth and decomposition. For example, nutrients necessary for biomass growth vary widely in availability across soils and climates and thus have the potential to constrain rates of primary production. In particular, researchers have long observed that many tropical forests accumulate, recycle, and export large amounts of nitrogen (N) relative to temperate forests. Here, we focus on the observation that hydrologic nitrate losses from unpolluted, humid, old-growth tropical forests can be considerably higher than from analogous temperate forests. We ask whether high nitrate losses from tropical forests are consistent with an N-limited ecosystem with proportionally greater inorganic leaks due to larger and faster cycling detrital pools under a warm, wet climate. We evaluate this question in the context of a simple analytical framework of terrestrial N cycling and compare our predictions to data of nitrate-N in stream waters of mature temperate and tropical rainforests. Our model describes the temporal tendency of mineral N pools (predominantly nitrate) in soils. We evaluate N losses under the hypothesis of N limitation, while allowing for parameters sensitive to climate to vary for temperate vs. tropical forests. According to our analysis, the observed 17 fold higher NO3- losses from tropical than temperate forests is only consistent with N limitation if the N uptake rate constant is 4 fold lower in tropical than temperate forests. Given that plant
Melo, J.W.S.; Lima, D.B.; Sabelis, M.W.; Pallini, A.; Gondim Jr., M.G.C.
Ambulatory movement of plant-feeding mites sets limits to the distances they can cover to reach a new food source. In absence of food-related cues these limits are determined by survival, walking activity, walking path tortuosity and walking speed, whereas in presence of food the limits are also det
Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele
The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.
Wambui, J. M.; Karuri, E. G.; Ojiambo, J. A.
Understanding the impact of climate change remains vital for food safety and public health. Of particular importance is the influence of climatic conditions on the growth of Aspergillus flavus and production of their toxins. Nevertheless, little is known about the actual impact of climate change...
Buontempo, Carlo; Soares, Marta Bruno; Liggins, Felicity
Climate services attempt to make the available (or forthcoming) climate knowledge more usable by decision and policy makers in the development of a climate smart society. Since the launch of the Global Framework for Climate Services in 2009 there has been an exponential increase in investment in the development and delivery of climate services, leading to an array of projects and initiatives across Europe. However, to date little attention has been given to understanding the different ways in which climate services are defined, implemented, and evaluated in Europe. In addition, other aspects such as how to pursue the necessary processes of co-production, which business models to apply, and the implications for the careers of scientists and others involved in the development of climate services are also crucial elements that need to be further examined and discussed. Such aspects are critical to the future development of climate services as they have the potential to significantly constrain the growth of climate services in Europe. Starting from a set of questions that have arisen within some of the most prominent climate services projects and initiatives in Europe, our paper highlights and expands on the outstanding challenges that need to be resolved by both the scientific community and the funders in order to ensure climate services can prosper and grow in Europe.
Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.
Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.
Gypens, Nathalie; Borges, Alberto V.; Speeckaert, Gaelle; Ghyoot, Caroline
Anthropogenic activities severely increased river nutrient [nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)] loads to European coastal areas. However, specific nutrient reduction policies implemented since the late 1990's have considerably reduced P loads, while N is maintained. In the Southern North Sea, the resulting N: P: Si imbalance (compared to phytoplankton requirements) stimulated the growth of Phaeocystis colonies modifying the functioning of the ecosystem and, therefore, the carbon cycle but also the biogenic sulphur cycle, Phaeocystis being a significant producer of DMSP (dimethylsulphide propionate), the precursor of dimethylsulfide (DMS). In this application, the mechanistic MIRO-BIOGAS model is used to investigate the effects of changing N and P loads on ecosystem structure and their impact on DMS and CO2 emissions. In particular, competition for P between phytoplankton groups (diatoms vs Phaeocystis colonies) but also between phytoplankton and bacteria is explored. The ability of autotroph and heterotroph organism to use dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) as P nutrient source is also explored and its effect on climatic gas emission estimated. Simulations were done from 1950 to 2010 and different nutrient limiting conditions are analyzed.
Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid
Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the
Konar, M.; Hussein, Z.; Hanasaki, N.
Trade has become increasingly important in the global redistribution of food, with important ramifications for food security, water resources, and transportation infrastructure, among others. Thus, it essential to understand how food trade and its water footprint may change in the future. To this end, we project international food trade, as well as its water footprint, under climate and policy scenarios for the year 2030. We use the H08 global hydrologic model to determine the impact of climatic changes to staple crop yields and evapotranspiration. Using the yield changes projected with the H08 model, we estimate the bilateral trade of staple crops using the Global Trade Analysis Project model. We combine these projections to obtain the water footprint of food trade, global network properties, and trade-based water savings across scenarios. Our findings indicate the relative importance of near-future climate and policy scenarios for food trade and its water footprint.
Ettinger, A K; Ford, K R; HilleRisLambers, J
Does climate determine species' ranges? Rapid rates of anthropogenic warming make this classic ecological question especially relevant. We ask whether climate controls range limits by quantifying relationships between climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) and tree growth across the altitudinal ranges of six Pacific Northwestern conifers on Mt. Rainier, Washington, USA. Results for three species (Abies amabilis, Callitropsis nootkatensis, Tsuga mertensiana) whose upper limits occur at treeline (> 1600 m) imply climatic controls on upper range limits, with low growth in cold and high snowpack years. Annual growth was synchronized among individuals at upper limits for these high-elevation species, further suggesting that stand-level effects such as climate constrain growth more strongly than local processes. By contrast, at lower limits climatic effects on growth were weak for these high-elevation species. Growth-climate relationships for three low-elevation species (Pseudotsuga menziesii, Thuja plicata, Tsuga heterophylla) were not consistent with expectations of climatic controls on upper limits, which are located within closed-canopy forest (climate controls altitudinal range limits at treeline, while local drivers (perhaps biotic interactions) influence growth in closed-canopy forests. Climate-change-induced range shifts in closed-canopy forests will therefore be difficult to predict accurately.
Full Text Available This study examined the effects of climate change on food expenditure in rural household of Iran. Food expenditure is investigated as a function of average income of rural households, retail food price index and food expenditure for rural households, agricultural sown area and climate change. Here, the Stata11 software is used and data are from 26 provinces of the country for 10 years. Precipitation, temperature and relative humidity are considered as indicators for climate variables. The results indicated a positive and significant effect of average income of rural households, retail food prices, food expenditure of rural households with a lag and precipitation on the food expenditure of rural households. Agricultural sown area and relative humidity had no effect on the food expenditure of rural households and temperature had a significant and negative effect on the food expenditure of rural households. In the end, due to the impact that each of these variables explicitly have on food expenditure of rural households and implicitly on food security of rural households, suggestions for maintaining and improving food security of rural households is presented.
Ferretti, V.; Llambias, P.E.; Martin, T.E.
Since David Lack first proposed that birds rear as many young as they can nourish, food limitation has been accepted as the primary explanation for variation in clutch size and other life-history traits in birds. The importance of food limitation in life-history variation, however, was recently questioned on theoretical grounds. Here, we show that clutch size differences between two populations of a neotropical thrush were contrary to expectations under Lack's food limitation hypothesis. Larger clutch sizes were found in a population with higher nestling starvation rate (i.e. greater food limitation). We experimentally equalized clutches between populations to verify this difference in food limitation. Our experiment confirmed greater food limitation in the population with larger mean clutch size. In addition, incubation bout length and nestling growth rate were also contrary to predictions of food limitation theory. Our results demonstrate the inability of food limitation to explain differences in several life-history traits: clutch size, incubation behaviour, parental feeding rate and nestling growth rate. These life-history traits were better explained by inter-population differences in nest predation rates. Food limitation may be less important to life history evolution in birds than suggested by traditional theory. ?? 2005 The Royal Society.
Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;
to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....
Mackenzie, Clara L; Ormondroyd, Graham A; Curling, Simon F; Ball, Richard J; Whiteley, Nia M; Malham, Shelagh K
Ocean surface pH levels are predicted to fall by 0.3-0.4 pH units by the end of the century and are likely to coincide with an increase in sea surface temperature of 2-4 °C. The combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the functional properties of bivalve shells is largely unknown and of growing concern as the shell provides protection from mechanical and environmental challenges. We examined the effects of near-future pH (ambient pH -0.4 pH units) and warming (ambient temperature +4 °C) on the shells of the commercially important bivalve, Mytilus edulis when fed for a limited period (4-6 h day(-1)). After six months exposure, warming, but not acidification, significantly reduced shell strength determined as reductions in the maximum load endured by the shells. However, acidification resulted in a reduction in shell flex before failure. Reductions in shell strength with warming could not be explained by alterations in morphology, or shell composition but were accompanied by reductions in shell surface area, and by a fall in whole-body condition index. It appears that warming has an indirect effect on shell strength by re-allocating energy from shell formation to support temperature-related increases in maintenance costs, especially as food supply was limited and the mussels were probably relying on internal energy reserves. The maintenance of shell strength despite seawater acidification suggests that biomineralisation processes are unaffected by the associated changes in CaCO3 saturation levels. We conclude that under near-future climate change conditions, ocean warming will pose a greater risk to shell integrity in M. edulis than ocean acidification when food availability is limited.
Clara L Mackenzie
Full Text Available Ocean surface pH levels are predicted to fall by 0.3-0.4 pH units by the end of the century and are likely to coincide with an increase in sea surface temperature of 2-4 °C. The combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the functional properties of bivalve shells is largely unknown and of growing concern as the shell provides protection from mechanical and environmental challenges. We examined the effects of near-future pH (ambient pH -0.4 pH units and warming (ambient temperature +4 °C on the shells of the commercially important bivalve, Mytilus edulis when fed for a limited period (4-6 h day(-1. After six months exposure, warming, but not acidification, significantly reduced shell strength determined as reductions in the maximum load endured by the shells. However, acidification resulted in a reduction in shell flex before failure. Reductions in shell strength with warming could not be explained by alterations in morphology, or shell composition but were accompanied by reductions in shell surface area, and by a fall in whole-body condition index. It appears that warming has an indirect effect on shell strength by re-allocating energy from shell formation to support temperature-related increases in maintenance costs, especially as food supply was limited and the mussels were probably relying on internal energy reserves. The maintenance of shell strength despite seawater acidification suggests that biomineralisation processes are unaffected by the associated changes in CaCO3 saturation levels. We conclude that under near-future climate change conditions, ocean warming will pose a greater risk to shell integrity in M. edulis than ocean acidification when food availability is limited.
Timmer, C. Peter
The early drafts of Food Policy Analysis were stimulated by the attention to high food prices following the world food crisis in 1973-74, and the fears of a repeat in 1979-80. But by the fourth full draft, in 1982, it became apparent that surpluses were returning to world food markets. A volume predicated on a world running out of food would have been out of date before the ink was dry, and a full-scale revamping of the analytical messages was needed. After a nearly complete re-write, the new...
Niiranen, S.; Yletyinen, J.; Tomczak, M.T.;
approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional...
Ryals, R.; Kramer, S.; Porder, S.; Andersen, G. L.
Ensuring access to clean, safe sanitation for the world's population remains a challenging, yet critical, global sustainability goal. Ecological-based sanitation (EcoSan) technology is a promising strategy for improving sanitation, particularly in areas where financial resources and infrastructure are limiting. The composting of human waste and its use as an agricultural soil amendment can tackle three important challenges in developing countries - providing improved sanitation for vulnerable communities, reducing the spread of intestinal-born pathogens, and returning nutrients and organic matter to degraded agricultural soils. The extent of these benefits and potential tradeoffs are not well known, but have important implications for the widespread adoption of this strategy to promote healthy communities and enhance food security. We quantified the effects of EcoSan on the climate and human health in partnership with Sustainable Organic Integrated Livelihoods (SOIL) in Haiti. We measured greenhouse gas emissions (nitrous oxide, methane, and carbon dioxide) from compost piles that ranged in age from 0 to 14 months (i.e. finished) from two compost facilities managed with or without cement lining. We also measured emissions from a government-operated waste treatment pond and a grass field where waste has been illegally dumped. The highest methane emissions were observed from the anaerobic waste pond, whereas the dump site and compost piles had higher nitrous oxide emissions. Net greenhouse gases (CO2-equivalents) from unlined compost piles were 8x lower than lined compost piles and 20 and 30x lower than the dump and waste pond, respectively. We screened finished compost for fecal pathogens using bacterial 16S sequencing. Bacterial pathogens were eliminated regardless of the type of composting process. Pilot trials indicate that the application of compost to crops has a large potential for increasing food production. This research suggests that EcoSan systems are
Opel, Thomas; Meyer, Hanno; Dereviagin, Alexander; Wetterich, Sebastian; Schirrmeister, Lutz
Permafrost regions are assumed to play a major role for Global Climate Change as they are susceptible to recent warming in particular with regard to the potential release of stored fossil carbon. Permafrost serves as archive of past environmental and climate conditions (such as sedimentation processes, temperature and precipitation regimes as well as landscape and ecosystem development) over tens of thousands of years that can be traced by the study of the frozen deposits, paleontological content and ground ice. Ground ice comprises all types of ice contained in frozen ground, including pore ice, segregation ice and ice wedges. Here, we focus on ice wedges as the most promising climate archive that can be studied by stable water isotope methods analogously to glacier ice. They may be identified by their vertically oriented foliations. Ice wedges form by the repeated filling of wintertime thermal contraction cracks by snow melt water in spring. As the melt water quickly refreezes at negative ground temperature no isotopic fractionation takes place. Hence, the isotopic composition (δ18O, δD, d excess) of wedge ice is assumed to be representative of annual cold period climate conditions, i.e. winter and spring. Ice wedges are widely distributed in non-glaciated high northern latitudes, are diagnostic of permafrost and, in general, indicative of cold and stable climate conditions. They are found in continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones and may also have formed during and survived interglacials. They may provide unique paleo information that is not captured by other climate archives. Usually, ice wedges are dated by radiocarbon dating of organic material incorporated in the ice, but also 36Cl/Cl ratios have been successfully used to date ice wedges. Nevertheless reliable age determination is challenging when studying ice wedges. Here we tackle the potential of ice wedges from the Siberian and American Arctic to trace past climate changes from stable isotope
Full Text Available This study analyzes the climate change and economic impacts of food waste in the United States. Using loss-adjusted national food availability data for 134 food commodities, it calculates the greenhouse gas emissions due to wasted food using life cycle assessment and the economic cost of the waste using retail prices. The analysis shows that avoidable food waste in the US exceeds 55 million metric tonnes per year, nearly 29% of annual production. This waste produces life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of at least 113 million metric tonnes of CO2e annually, equivalent to 2% of national emissions, and costs $198 billion.
Rugenstein, M.; Knutti, R.
The term "feedback" is used ubiquitously in climate research, but implies varied meanings in different contexts. From a specific process that locally affects a quantity, to a formal framework that attempts to determine a global response to a forcing, researchers use this term to separate, simplify, and quantify parts of the complex Earth system. We combine large (>120 member) ensemble GCM and EMIC step forcing simulations over a broad range of forcing levels with a historical and educational perspective to organize existing ideas around feedbacks and linear forcing-feedback models. With a new method overcoming internal variability and initial condition problems we quantify the non-constancy of the climate feedback parameter. Our results suggest a strong state- and forcing-dependency of feedbacks, which is not considered appropriately in many studies. A non-constant feedback factor likely explains some of the differences in estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity from different methods and types of data. We discuss implications for the definition of the forcing term and its various adjustments. Clarifying the value and applicability of the linear forcing feedback framework and a better quantification of feedbacks on various timescales and spatial scales remains a high priority in order to better understand past and predict future changes in the climate system.
Kelly K. Caylor
Full Text Available Society is facing growing environmental problems that require new research efforts to understand the way ecosystems operate and survive, and their mutual relationships with the hydrologic cycle. In this respect, ecohydrology suggests a renewed interdisciplinary approach that aims to provide a better comprehension of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems. With this aim, a coupled hydrological/ecological model is adopted to describe simultaneously vegetation pattern evolution and hydrological water budget at the basin scale using as test site the Upper Rio Salado basin (Sevilleta, NM, USA. The hydrological analyses have been carried out using a recently formulated framework for the water balance at the daily level linked with a spatial model for the description of the spatial organization of vegetation. This enables quantitatively assessing the effects on soil water availability on future climatic scenarios. Results highlighted that the relationship between climatic forcing (water availability and vegetation patterns is strongly non-linear. This implies, under some specific conditions which depend on the ecosystem characteristics, small changes in climatic conditions may produce significant transformation of the vegetation patterns.
Eric C. Brevik
Full Text Available According to the IPCC, global temperatures are expected to increase between 1.1 and 6.4 °C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered. Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Because of this, altered climate will have an effect on soil processes and properties. Recent studies indicate at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric C, lowering soil organic matter levels. Soil erosion by wind and water is also likely to increase. However, there are many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the N cycle and, in turn, how that will affect C storage in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of how erosion processes will be influenced by changes in climate. The response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like N and P, and how that will influence soil organic matter levels, is another critical research need. How soil organic matter levels react to changes in the C and N cycles will influence the ability of soils to support crop growth, which has significant ramifications for food security. Therefore, further study of soil-climate interactions in a changing world is critical to addressing future food security concerns.
Tai, Amos P. K.; Martin, Maria Val; Heald, Colette L.
Future food production is highly vulnerable to both climate change and air pollution with implications for global food security. Climate change adaptation and ozone regulation have been identified as important strategies to safeguard food production, but little is known about how climate and ozone pollution interact to affect agriculture, nor the relative effectiveness of these two strategies for different crops and regions. Here we present an integrated analysis of the individual and combined effects of 2000-2050 climate change and ozone trends on the production of four major crops (wheat, rice, maize and soybean) worldwide based on historical observations and model projections, specifically accounting for ozone-temperature co-variation. The projections exclude the effect of rising CO2, which has complex and potentially offsetting impacts on global food supply. We show that warming reduces global crop production by >10% by 2050 with a potential to substantially worsen global malnutrition in all scenarios considered. Ozone trends either exacerbate or offset a substantial fraction of climate impacts depending on the scenario, suggesting the importance of air quality management in agricultural planning. Furthermore, we find that depending on region some crops are primarily sensitive to either ozone (for example, wheat) or heat (for example, maize) alone, providing a measure of relative benefits of climate adaptation versus ozone regulation for food security in different regions.
Dodman, David; Carmin, Joann
Cities face a mounting challenge from climate change. In developed and developing countries alike, rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, higher sea levels, and more frequent and severe extreme events such as droughts and floods threaten to overwhelm urban infrastructure, services and management systems. City officials recognise the need to adapt to climate change, and use scientific evidence to support their plans for doing so. But the precise details of these changes and the local impacts they will have cannot be predicted. Decision makers must learn to draw on scientific data while simultaneously managing the uncertainty inherent in future projections. Across the world, forward-looking city officials are proving themselves to be 'urban adaptation leaders' — mobilising political and public support for and devising flexible approaches to adaptation.
Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.
Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.
Briggs, Martin; Lane, John; Snyder, Craig D.; White, Eric A.; Johnson, Zachary; Nelms, David L.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.
Groundwater/surface-water exchanges in streams are inexorably linked to adjacent aquifer dynamics. As surface-water temperatures continue to increase with climate warming, refugia created by groundwater connectivity is expected to enable cold water fish species to survive. The shallow alluvial aquifers that source groundwater seepage to headwater streams, however, may also be sensitive to seasonal and long-term air temperature dynamics. Depth to bedrock can directly influence shallow aquifer flow and thermal sensitivity, but is typically ill-defined along the stream corridor in steep mountain catchments. We employ rapid, cost-effective passive seismic measurements to evaluate the variable thickness of the shallow colluvial and alluvial aquifer sediments along a headwater stream supporting cold water-dependent brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Shenandoah National Park, VA, USA. Using a mean depth to bedrock of 2.6 m, numerical models predicted strong sensitivity of shallow aquifer temperature to the downward propagation of surface heat. The annual temperature dynamics (annual signal amplitude attenuation and phase shift) of potential seepage sourced from the shallow modeled aquifer were compared to several years of paired observed stream and air temperature records. Annual stream water temperature patterns were found to lag local air temperature by ∼8–19 d along the stream corridor, indicating that thermal exchange between the stream and shallow groundwater is spatially variable. Locations with greater annual signal phase lag were also associated with locally increased amplitude attenuation, further suggestion of year-round buffering of channel water temperature by groundwater seepage. Numerical models of shallow groundwater temperature that incorporate regional expected climate warming trends indicate that the summer cooling capacity of this groundwater seepage will be reduced over time, and lower-elevation stream sections may no longer serve as larger
Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan
Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in southern Africa is particularly high. The associated drought and flood risks, combined with a largely rain-fed agriculture, pose a challenge for water and food security in the region. As regional collaboration strengthens through the Southern Africa Development Community and trade with other regions increases, it is thus important to understand both how climate variability affects agricultural productivity and how food trade (regional and extra-regional) can contribute to the region's capacity to deal with climate-related shocks. We combine global hydrological model simulations with international food trade data to quantify the water resources embedded in international food trade in southern Africa and with the rest of the world, from 1986-2011. We analyze the impacts of socio-economic changes and climatic variability on agricultural trade and embedded water resources during this period. We find that regional food trade is efficient in terms of water use but may be unsustainable because water-productive exporters, like South Africa, rely on increasingly stressed water resources. The role of imports from the rest of the world in the region's food supply is important, in particular during severe droughts. This reflects how trade can efficiently redistribute water resources across continents in response to a sudden gap in food production. In a context of regional and global integration, our results highlight opportunities for improved water-efficiency and sustainability of the region's food supply via trade.
Abstract This research for the study of the marketing strategy has been prepared for the Keidas food shop or Intercultural Corporation limited liability Company. This thesis aims to explore the opportunities and possibilities that the company could achieve with an effective and efficient marketing strategy in the future. The oriental food shop has great potential to serve a large Finnish customer base in the Kymenlaakso area, but due to a lack of a marketing strategy, the company has fa...
Mäkiniemi, Jaana-Piia; Vainio, Annukka
The aim of the study was to examine how young adults in Finland perceive barriers to climate-friendly food choices and how these barriers are associated with their choices. The participants were 350 university students of the social and behavioral sciences who completed a questionnaire during class. The study found that the barriers the participants perceived as being the most relevant were different from those that were associated with the omission of climate-friendly food choices. High prices were perceived as the most relevant barrier, but were only weakly associated with the participants' food choices. Instead, habit and disbelief in the effects of food consumption on the climate were found to be the barriers that had the greatest association with climate-friendly choices. Moreover, women considered high prices and poor supply more important compared to men, whereas men considered disbelief and habit more important. In addition, vegetarians perceived fewer barriers than those who followed other diets. The findings increase our understanding of young adults' perceptions of barriers to climate-friendly food choices, as well as their effects.
Fucugauchi, J. U.
In the coming decades a changing climate and natural hazards will likely increase the vulnerability of agricultural and other food production infrastructures, posing increasing treats to industrialized and developing economies. While food security concerns affect us globally, the huge differences among countries in stocks, population size, poverty levels, economy, technologic development, transportation, health care systems and basic infrastructure will pose a much larger burden on populations in the developing and less developed world. In these economies, increase in the magnitude, duration and frequency of droughts, floods, hurricanes, rising sea levels, heat waves, thunderstorms, freezing events and other phenomena will pose severe costs on the population. For this presentation, we concentrate on a geophysical perspective of the problems, tools available, challenges and short and long-term perspectives. In many instances, a range of natural hazards are considered as unforeseen catastrophes, which suddenly affect without warning, resulting in major losses. Although the forecasting capacity in the different situations arising from climate change and natural hazards is still limited, there are a range of tools available to assess scenarios and forecast models for developing and implementing better mitigation strategies and prevention programs. Earth observation systems, geophysical instrumental networks, satellite observatories, improved understanding of phenomena, expanded global and regional databases, geographic information systems, higher capacity for computer modeling, numerical simulations, etc provide a scientific-technical framework for developing strategies. Hazard prevention and mitigation programs will result in high costs globally, however major costs and challenges concentrate on the less developed economies already affected by poverty, famines, health problems, social inequalities, poor infrastructure, low life expectancy, high population growth
Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges of 21st century is satisfying the food needs of the fast growing population of the world. Food must fulfill quality and safety standards. The access to safe and appropriate food is not the same everywhere. Food excess and, in consequence, food waste is present in many regions of the world. This study is meant to explain the causes of food waste on the basis of the author’s own research and study results of other scientists. The lack of authenticity and falsification belong to the new factors endangering food safety and food waste related thereto. This analysis proves that the authenticity of food improves its safety through the implementation of quality management systems, the appropriate system of food labelling and food identification by means of applicable law regulations, supervision and control systems. Main aim of this study is to address why, even though there are so many quality standards and systems, a significant problem with food loss and waste constantly occurs. Waste-causing factors have been determined on the example of bread and the handling of unconsumed bread has been attempted in this study. Waste limiting actions are necessary as food production is significantly overburdening the natural environment and generating increasing amount of waste, hazardous to the clean air.
Dangal, S. R. S.; Tian, H.; Pan, S.; Zhang, B.; Yang, J.
The nexus approach to food, water and energy security in Asia is extremely important and relevant as the region has to feed two-third of the world's population and accounts for 59% of the global water consumption. The distribution pattern of food, water and energy resources have been shaped by the legacy effect of both natural and anthropogenic disturbances and therefore are vulnerable to climate change and human activities including land use/cover change (LUCC) and land management (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization). In this study, we used the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to examine the effects of climate change, land use/cover change, and land management practices (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) on the spatiotemporal trends and variability in water availability and its role in limiting net primary productivity (NPP) and food security in the 20th and early 21st centuries. Our specific objectives are to quantify how climate change, LUCC and other environmental changes have interactively affected carbon and water dynamics across the Asian region. In particular, we separated the Asian region into several sub-region based on the primary limiting factor - water, food and energy. We then quantified how changes in environmental factors have altered the water and food resources during the past century. We particularly focused on Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and water cycle (Evapotranspiration, discharge, and runoff) as a measure of available food and water resources, respectively while understanding the linkage between food and water resources in Asia.
Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R
International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.
Recent experience of food price volatility in global markets encourages closer examination of the dynamics underlying the global food system and reveals a range of contingent factors. Meanwhile a common thread of many recent expert reports has emphasised the need to intensify agricultural production to double food output by 2050. Drawing upon a…
Dettinger, M. D.; Earman, S.; Funk, C. C.
total precipitation fall at temperatures just below freezing historically. Other areas with large-scale groundwater overdrafts, including parts of Northern Africa, Mexico, South Africa and Australia, are also areas where recent history and climate projections indicate declining precipitation amounts. Thus, many areas where climate change threatens to change and possibly diminish groundwater sources are also areas where massive groundwater overdrafts are being used to meet critical demands for irrigation and agriculture. Disruption of groundwater recharge in these areas would only hasten the overdrafts and eventual limits on groundwater-based irrigation supplies. The climate-change/groundwater nexus is likely adding significant new risks to food and water security globally.
Brown, Molly E.
Global satellite data provides information on land use, rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation vigor and crop yields. Process-based products allows transformation of these data into information that can be used to assess impact of weather on commodity prices and local economic health. Trends and impact of climate change
In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of
Neale, Anne Victoria; And Others
A methodology is presented for estimating daily intake of dietary fat and fiber based on limited food frequency data. The procedure, which relies on National Food Consumption Survey data and daily consumption rates, can provide baseline estimates of dietary patterns for health promotion policymakers. (SLD)
Pjetri, E; Adan, R A; Herzog, H; de Haas, R; Oppelaar, H; Spierenburg, H A; Olivier, B; Kas, M J
The neuropeptide Y (NPY) system in the brain regulates a wide variety of behavioral, metabolic and hormonal homeostatic processes required for energy balance control. During times of limited food availability, NPY promotes behavioral hyperactivity necessary to explore and prepare for novel food reso
Bourg, D. [Universite de Technologie de Troyes, Centre d' Etudes et de Recherches Interdisciplinaires sur le Developpement Durable, 10 - Troyes (France)
Can democratic societies organize the energy diet imposed by the prevention of climate change? What would be the difficulties to overcome? This challenge could not be met without changing the nature of public policies and without learning how to determine collectively new individual lifestyles, not separable from duties. (author)
Full Text Available An order to discuss that whether the methods of total aerobic microbial count and absence bacterial test were appropriate in microbial limit tests for health foods hygiene. As the requirement of microorganism limits test and validation on the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2010, the microbial examination method of two kinds of health foods has been validated. It is found that vitamin B was antibacterial for Bacillus subtilis and Aspergillus niger. The results indicated the method in foods microbial limit test GB/T4789-2010 were not suitable for the microbial limit tests of health foods. It is suggested that setting more reasonable method by validation as well as referring to the Chinese Pharmacopoeia 2010.
Meng Fan; Ke Wang
With the help of a continuation theorem based on Gaines and Mawhin's coincidence degree, we study the global existence of positive periodic solutions of a "food-limited" population model with toxicants and time delays. Some new results are obtained.
Wheat and corn are an essential part of the world’s grain supply, but climate change has the potential to increase grain susceptibility to toxin producing fungal pathogens. While rising atmospheric [CO2] is a driving force of climate change, our understanding of how elevated [CO2] will effect grain ...
Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B
Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.
Luna C, P.C
The utility of the irradiation to overcome diverse problems of lost nutritious, it has been demonstrated in multiple investigation works, that its have confirmed the value and the inoculation of the irradiated foods. The quantity of energy applied to each food, is in function of the wanted effect. In this document a guide with respect to the practical application and the utility of the irradiation process in different foods, as well as the suggested dose average is shown. Among the limitations of the use of this technology, its are the costs and not being able to apply it to some fresh foods. (Author)
Full Text Available This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive model studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Furthermore, developing countries will suffer the most with a potential 9.1 per cent decline in agricultural output, for example with a considerable decrease of 16.6 per cent in Africa. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases, depending on emission scenarios and the assumptions on effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2 fertilization. One of the tools that would ensure the food security by making use of local sources and traditional knowledge is agroecology. Agroecology would contribute to mitigation of the anthropogenic climate change and cooling down the Earth’s increasing surface and lower atmospheric air temperatures, because it is mainly labour-intensive and requires little uses of fossil fuels, energy and artificial fertilisers. It is also necessary to understand the ecological mechanisms underlying sustainability of traditional farming systems, and to translate them into ecological principles that make locally available and appropriate approaches and techniques applicable to a large number of farmers.
Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD, which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia.
Hare, W.; Cramer, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Battaglini, A.; Jaeger, C.
Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of Region
Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi
We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.
Wagner, Fabien H.; Hérault, Bruno; Bonal, Damien; Stahl, Clément; Anderson, Liana O.; Baker, Timothy R.; Becker, Gabriel Sebastian; Beeckman, Hans; Boanerges Souza, Danilo; Botosso, Paulo Cesar; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Bräuning, Achim; Brede, Benjamin; Irving Brown, Foster; Julio Camarero, Jesus; Barbosa Camargo, Plínio; Cardoso, Fernanda C. G.; Alvim Carvalho, Fabrício; Castro, Wendeson; Koloski Chagas, Rubens; Chave, Jérome; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Clark, Deborah A.; Capellotto Costa, Flavia Regina; Couralet, Camille; Henrique da Silva Mauricio, Paulo; Dalitz, Helmut; Resende de Castro, Vinicius; Eloisa de Freitas Milani, Jaçanan; Consuelo de Oliveira, Edilson; de Souza Arruda, Luciano; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Drew, David M.; Dünisch, Oliver; Durigan, Giselda; Elifuraha, Elisha; Fedele, Marcio; Ferreira Fedele, Ligia; Figueiredo Filho, Afonso; Guimarães Finger, César Augusto; César Franco, Augusto; Lima Freitas Júnior, João; Galvão, Franklin; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Gliniars, Robert; Maurício Lima de Alencastro Graça, Paulo; Griffiths, Anthony D.; Grogan, James; Guan, Kaiyu; Homeier, Jürgen; Raquel Kanieski, Maria; Khoon Kho, Lip; Koenig, Jennifer; Valerio Kohler, Sintia; Krepkowski, Julia; Pires Lemos-Filho, José; Lieberman, Diana; Lieberman, Milton Eugene; Lisi, Claudio Sergio; Longhi Santos, Tomaz; López Ayala, José Luis; Eijji Maeda, Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maria, Vivian R. B.; Marques, Marcia C. M.; Marques, Renato; Maza Chamba, Hector; Mbwambo, Lawrence; Liana Lisboa Melgaço, Karina; Mendivelso, Hooz Angela; Murphy, Brett P.; O'Brien, Joseph J.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Okada, Naoki; Pélissier, Raphaël; Prior, Lynda D.; Alejandro Roig, Fidel; Ross, Michael; Rodrigo Rossatto, Davi; Rossi, Vivien; Rowland, Lucy; Rutishauser, Ervan; Santana, Hellen; Schulze, Mark; Selhorst, Diogo; Rodrigues Silva, Williamar; Silveira, Marcos; Spannl, Susanne; Swaine, Michael D.; Julio Toledo, José; Toledo, Marcos Miranda; Toledo, Marisol; Toma, Takeshi; Tomazello Filho, Mario; Valdez Hernández, Juan Ignacio; Verbesselt, Jan; Aparecida Vieira, Simone; Vincent, Grégoire; Volkmer de Castilho, Carolina; Volland, Franziska; Worbes, Martin; Bolzan Zanon, Magda Lea; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.
The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter productivity measurements), their associated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonality in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rainfall is < 2000 mm yr-1 (water-limited forests) and to radiation otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, independent of climate limitations, wood productivity and litterfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosynthetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest productivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in current light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000 mm yr-1.
Gelbke, Heinz-Peter; Banton, Marcy; Faes, Eric; Leibold, Edgar; Pemberton, Mark; Duhayon, Sophie
Residual styrene present in polystyrene food packaging may migrate into food at low levels. To assure safe use, safe exposure levels are derived for consumers potentially exposed via food using No/Low Adverse Effect Levels from animal and human studies and assessment factors proposed by European organisations (EFSA, ECHA, ECETOC). Ototoxicity and developmental toxicity in rats and human ototoxicity and effects on colour discrimination have been identified as the most relevant toxicological properties for styrene health assessments. Safe exposure levels derived from animal studies with assessment factors of EFSA and ECHA were expectedly much lower than those using the ECETOC approach. Comparable safe exposure levels were obtained from human data with all sets of assessment factors while ototoxicity in rats led to major differences. The safe exposure levels finally selected based on criteria of science and health protection converged to the range of 90-120 mg/person/d. Assuming a consumption of 1 kg food/d for an adult, this translates to 90 mg styrene migration into 1 kg food as safe for consumers. This assessment supports a health based Specific Migration Limit of 90 ppm, a value somewhat higher than the current overall migration limit of 60 ppm in the European Union.
Hegel, Troy M; Mysterud, Atle; Ergon, Torbjørn; Loe, Leif Egil; Huettmann, Falk; Stenseth, Nils Chr
1. Climate is an important factor influencing the population dynamics of large herbivores operating directly on individuals or through its effect on forage characteristics. However, the seasonal effect of climate may differ between forage- and predator-limited populations because of a climatic influence on predation rates. The influence of climate on predator-limited large herbivores is less well known than on forage-limited populations. Further, the effect of Pacific-based climate on large herbivore populations has been rarely assessed. 2. We investigated the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), across different seasons, on recruitment in 10 populations (herds) of mountain-dwelling caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou L. in the Yukon Territory, Canada. These low-density populations occur in highly seasonal environments and are considered predator-limited with high neonatal calf mortality. Hence, in most years females do not spend resources through lactational support during the summer and resource intake is devoted to self-maintenance. We predicted that climate affecting environmental conditions at calving would have a strong effect on recruitment via its influence on predation rates. We also predicted that climatic conditions prior to conception could have an effect on recruitment through its influence on female fecundity. We modelled recruitment (n = 165) by seasonal PDO values using generalized linear mixed-effects models with herd-varying coefficients. 3. We found that recruitment variability was best explained by variation in winter climate (beta = 0.110, SE = 0.007) prior to birth (in utero) and May climate (beta = 0.013, SE = 0.006) at calving. There was little support for a pre-conception climate effect influencing female body condition and hence fecundity. These results confirm that recruitment in these populations is limited by predation and that forage-limitation is not a significant factor in their population dynamics. There was considerable
Albouy, Camille; Velez, Laure; Coll, Marta; Colloca, Francesco; Le Loc'h, François; Mouillot, David; Gravel, Dominique
Climate change is inducing deep modifications in species geographic ranges worldwide. However, the consequences of such changes on community structure are still poorly understood, particularly the impacts on food-web properties. Here, we propose a new framework, coupling species distribution and trophic models, to predict climate change impacts on food-web structure across the Mediterranean Sea. Sea surface temperature was used to determine the fish climate niches and their future distributions. Body size was used to infer trophic interactions between fish species. Our projections reveal that 54 fish species of 256 endemic and native species included in our analysis would disappear by 2080-2099 from the Mediterranean continental shelf. The number of feeding links between fish species would decrease on 73.4% of the continental shelf. However, the connectance of the overall fish web would increase on average, from 0.26 to 0.29, mainly due to a differential loss rate of feeding links and species richness. This result masks a systematic decrease in predator generality, estimated here as the number of prey species, from 30.0 to 25.4. Therefore, our study highlights large-scale impacts of climate change on marine food-web structure with potential deep consequences on ecosystem functioning. However, these impacts will likely be highly heterogeneous in space, challenging our current understanding of climate change impact on local marine ecosystems.
Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.
Global climate change, unprecedented population growth, and rapid urbanization have elevated the possibility of food and water shortages in many regions across the world. The likelihood of such shortages in the future is further exacerbated by the fact that increased greenhouse forcing and rapid growth in human population will continue for at least the next several decades. These socio-environmental changes will likely put some regions under enormous economic and environmental stress by forcing them to adapt to new conditions. India with its rapidly growing population and high rates of urbanization and industrialization is one such region whose agricultural resources will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of these changes. This study collectively reviews and analyses the possible impacts of climate change, population growth and resulting land use change on the availability of food and water in the coming decades for India. By analyzing and fusing a wide variety of existing data and research on the impact of land use change, population, and climate change, on water and food resources this study develops an understanding of the broader implications of each of the changes on food security in the region. In addition, the study focuses on the need to assess and quantify the combination of such impacts at a regional level and identify food security hotspots spatially across India that will help to narrow down regions in the country which will be severely affected and need priority adaptation and mitigation measures.
Przytulska, Anna; Bartosiewicz, Maciej; Rautio, Milla; Dufresne, France; Vincent, Warwick F.
Climate change is proceeding rapidly at high northern latitudes and may have a variety of direct and indirect effects on aquatic food webs. One predicted effect is the potential shift in phytoplankton community structure towards increased cyanobacterial abundance. Given that cyanobacteria are known to be a nutritionally poor food source, we hypothesized that such a shift would reduce the efficiency of feeding and growth of northern zooplankton. To test this hypothesis, we first isolated a clone of Daphnia pulex from a permafrost thaw pond in subarctic Québec, and confirmed that it was triploid but otherwise genetically similar to a diploid, reference clone of the same species isolated from a freshwater pond in southern Québec. We used a controlled flow-through system to investigate the direct effect of temperature and indirect effect of subarctic picocyanobacteria (Synechococcus) on threshold food concentrations and growth rate of the high latitude clone. We also compared the direct effect of temperature on both Daphnia clones feeding on eukaryotic picoplankton (Nannochloropsis). The high latitude clone had a significantly lower food threshold for growth than the temperate clone at both 18 and 26°C, implying adaptation to lower food availability even under warmer conditions. Polyunsaturated fatty acids were present in the picoeukaryote but not the cyanobacterium, confirming the large difference in food quality. The food threshold for growth of the high latitude Daphnia was 3.7 (18°C) to 4.2 (26°C) times higher when fed Synechococcus versus Nannochloropsis, and there was also a significant negative effect of increased temperature and cyanobacterial food on zooplankton fatty acid content and composition. The combined effect of temperature and food quality on the performance of the high latitude Daphnia was greater than their effects added separately, further indicating the potentially strong indirect effects of climate warming on aquatic food web processes. PMID
Louisa S Evans
Full Text Available Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.
Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Adger, W Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae
Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.
Adamo, Shelley A; Davies, Gillian; Easy, Russell; Kovalko, Ilya; Turnbull, Kurtis F
Dwindling resources might be expected to induce a gradual decline in immune function. However, food limitation has complex and seemingly paradoxical effects on the immune system. Examining these changes from an immune system network perspective may help illuminate the purpose of these fluctuations. We found that food limitation lowered long-term (i.e. lipid) and short-term (i.e. sugars) energy stores in the caterpillar Manduca sexta. Food limitation also: altered immune gene expression, changed the activity of key immune enzymes, depressed the concentration of a major antioxidant (glutathione), reduced resistance to oxidative stress, reduced resistance to bacteria (Gram-positive and -negative bacteria) but appeared to have less effect on resistance to a fungus. These results provide evidence that food limitation led to a restructuring of the immune system network. In severely food-limited caterpillars, some immune functions were enhanced. As resources dwindled within the caterpillar, the immune response shifted its emphasis away from inducible immune defenses (i.e. those responses that are activated during an immune challenge) and increased emphasis on constitutive defenses (i.e. immune components that are produced consistently). We also found changes suggesting that the activation threshold for some immune responses (e.g. phenoloxidase) was lowered. Changes in the configuration of the immune system network will lead to different immunological strengths and vulnerabilities for the organism.
Full Text Available This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and the availability of clean water, hence threatening human health, livelihoods and ultimately societal stability. Degradation also increases the vulnerability of populations to the consequences of natural disasters and climate change impacts. With 10 million people dying from hunger each year, the linkages between ecosystems and food security are important to recognize. Though we all depend on ecosystems for our food and water, about seventy per cent of the estimated 1.1 billion people in poverty around the world live in rural areas and depend directly on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods. Healthy ecosystems provide a diverse range of food sources and support entire agricultural systems, but their value to food security and sustainable livelihoods are often undervalued or ignored. There is an urgent need for increased financial investment for integrating ecosystem management with food security and poverty alleviation priorities. As the world’s leaders worked towards a new international climate change agenda in Cancun, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010 (UNFCCC COP16, it was clear that without a deep and decisive post-2012 agreement and major concerted effort to reduce the food crisis, the Millennium Development Goals will not be attained. Political commitment at the highest level will be needed to raise the profile of ecosystems on the global food agenda. It is recommended that full recognition and promotion be given of the linkages
Butler, Colin D
This is the first of two articles on the steepening challenges which confront global agriculture, food security and hence nutrition and population health. The recent deterioration in global food security has caught most experts by surprise. While the Asia Pacific region as a whole has so far fared reasonably well, there should be no complacency about medium to long term food security in the region, whether or not food security improves in the near future. The first paper places this debate in the context of the long-standing arguments between Malthusianists and optimists. The apparent reversal of position in the last decade of two leading agricultural experts is discussed. Their recent writings reflect intensified Malthusian concerns curbed in their writings from the 1990s. The paper concludes that far more credence needs to be given to the pessimistic position in order to avoid it becoming reality. The second paper focusses on five interrelated challenges to future food security in the Asia Pacific. These may be conceptualised as pathways by which pessimistic Malthusian scenarios become manifest. The mechanisms are (1) climate change, (2) water scarcity, (3) tropospheric ozone pollution, (4) impending scarcity of phosphorus and conventional oil and (5) the possible interaction between future population displacement, conflict and poor governance. The article concludes that a sustainable improvement in food security requires a radical transformation in society's approach to the environment, population growth, agricultural research and the distribution of rights, opportunities and entitlements.
Ahlgren, Ingrid; Yamada, Seiji; Wong, Allen
Climate change impacts are expected to produce more frequent, longer and unpredictable drought periods with further saltwater intrusion in the Marshall Islands. As a result, a significant return to traditional food cropping is unlikely. This will lead to an increased dependence on food aid, especially in the outer atoll populations. An examination of the nutritional content of food aid suggests it is likely to lead to poor health outcomes. Dependence on food aid has gradually increased over the past 70 years in the Marshall Islands, starting with population relocation because of war and nuclear testing and most recently because of climate change. The authors argue that the health impacts of the supplemental imported diet, combined with migration to population centers, may result in an even greater prevalence of chronic diseases, and exert pressures that lead to more communicable disease, further exacerbating the syndemics in the Marshall Islands. The authors conclude that food aid donors and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) government have human rights obligations to ensure that the people in the Marshall Islands have access to adequate nutrition. Accordingly, donors and the government should re-examine the content of food and ensure it is of sufficient quality to meet the right to health obligations.
Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.
The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.
Christopher A. Scott
Full Text Available The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life-cycle impacts of thermoelectric generation and biofuel production, and freshwater availability and sectoral allocations from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. Emerging, energy-related water scarcity flashpoints include the world’s largest, most diversified economies (Brazil, India, China, and USA among others, while physical water scarcity continues to pose limits to energy development in the Middle East and small-island states. Findings include the following: (a technological obstacles to alleviate water scarcity driven by energy demand are surmountable; (b resource conservation is inevitable, driven by financial limitations and efficiency gains; and (c institutional arrangements play a pivotal role in the virtuous water-energy-climate cycle. We conclude by making reference to coupled energy-water policy alternatives including water-conserving energy portfolios, intersectoral water transfers, virtual water for energy, hydropower tradeoffs, and use of impaired waters for energy development.
Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert
Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at contrac...
Sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply. Political and legal challenges of the 21th century; Nachhaltigkeit, Energiewende, Klimawandel, Welternaehrung. Politische und rechtliche Herausforderungen des 21. Jahrhunderts
Haertel, Ines (ed.)
The book on sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply as political challenges in the 21th century includes contributions on the following topics: sustainability and environment, energy and climatic change, agriculture and world food supply.
Full Text Available In mountain environment of the Jeseníky Mts., we studied the botanical composition and quality of diets of red deer, roe deer and chamois as well as utilization of their food supply. The data were collected from two localities of different altitudes and food supply. The locality on summits was covered mostly with grasses in herb layer and inhabited by chamois and red deer, while in the lower locations raspberry, forbs and broadleaved tree was abundant and red and roe deer were presented. The aim of the study was to analyze a feeding strategy of three ungulate species in mountain habitats with limited food supply and to deduce implications to management of their populations. (1 Botanic composition of the ungulate food was influenced not only by their foraging specialisation but also food supply was very important. Red deer consumed grasses (more than 90 percent of volume on the summit in growing season while forbs and browse were presented in substantial amount in its diet in lower altitudes. (2 The food quality based on nitrogen content was higher in general in roe deer than in the others ungulates but during late winter the roe deer consumed the diet based on spruce needles of very low quality. The quality of red deer diet was lower in the summit area (grassy habitats than at foot hills where the food supply was more various. (3 The roe deer distribution can be restricted by absence of high quality food resources in ground vegetation while red deer and chamois can use food of lower quality (grasses. (5 Winter is a critical period for all study species when the food supply is a worst quality and the ungulate diets were similar and the possibility of competition for limited resources increase.
Munson, Seth M.
Plant species in dryland ecosystems are limited by water availability and may be vulnerable to increases in aridity. Methods are needed to monitor and assess the rate of change in plant abundance and composition in relation to climate, understand the potential for degradation in dryland ecosystems, and forecast future changes in plant species assemblages. I employ nearly a century of vegetation monitoring data from three North American deserts to demonstrate an approach to determine plant species responses to climate and critical points over a range of climatic conditions at which plant species shift from increases to decreases in abundance (climate pivot points). I assess these metrics from a site to regional scale and highlight how these indicators of plant performance can be modified by the physical and biotic environment. For example, shrubs were more responsive to drought and high temperatures on shallow soils with limited capacity to store water and fine-textured soils with slow percolation rates, whereas perennial grasses were more responsive to precipitation in sparse shrublands than in relatively dense grasslands and shrublands, where competition for water is likely more intense. The responses and associated climate pivot points of plant species aligned with their lifespan and structural characteristics, and the relationship between responses and climate pivot points provides evidence of the trade-off between the capacity of a plant species to increase in abundance when water is available and its drought resistance.
Underwood, L. W.; Brown, M. E.; Ross, K. W.
Agriculture and climate are tightly linked, and climate change is transforming that linkage in ways that are not broadly understood. Increasing global mean temperatures and extreme weather events are expected to have a profound effect on future crop production and food availability; especially considering the persistent effects current climactic variability has on food insecurity today. Over the next several decades, projected changes in weather patterns pose a serious threat to food security, particularly in semi-arid tropical regions already food insecure. These changes are amplifying the need for expanding decision support tools and earlier early warning so that decision makers will have longer time horizons for planning and preparedness. Our research is helping evaluate what remote sensing data will be most useful in meeting this need. Multiple national/international organizations have created decision support tools that summarize information about food security status in key regions. These include the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s Global Information and Early Warning Service (GIEWS), the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s CropExplorer and U.S. Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET early warning of agricultural production declines that may affect food security is characterized by weekly weather hazard assessments, and relies upon vegetation, temperature and rainfall data derived from remote sensing to identify abnormal weather related conditions. Previously published research utilized a questionnaire to elicit inputs from professionals who use Earth science data to address FEWS NET’s institutional needs. This work identified that rainfall and vegetation products are valued as data that provide actionable food security information. The questionnaire also led to key findings regarding planned FEWS NET enhancements, and that the focus of a recent NASA-funded project on developing new
van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.
Climate change has revived debates around the concept of limits to growth, 45 years after it was first proposed. Many citizens, scientists and politicians fear that stringent climate policy will harm economic growth. Some are anti-growth, whereas others believe green growth is compatible with a transition to a low-carbon economy. As the window to curb warming at 2 °C closes, this debate will intensify. This Review critically reflects on both positions, providing an overview of existing literature on the growth versus climate debate. Both positions are argued here to jeopardize environmental or social goals. A third position, labelled an 'agrowth' strategy, is proposed to depolarize the debate and reduce resistance to climate policies.
Bos, O.G.; Hendriks, I.E.; Strasser, M.;
Marine invertebrate recruitment may be affected by food limitation during the pelagic larval life stages. In the present study, field data on abundance of bivalve larvae along with their prey (small phytoplankton) were examined to see whether they were consistent with predictions made by an energ...... assimilation rate averaged 7-26% of the maximum assimilation rate. Under the assumptions made for the present study, it is suggested that growth of larvae in north-west European waters is often food-limited. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...
Brown, Molly E.
Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security
Full Text Available This report explores the exposure and vulnerability of Korea and the Southern African region to climate-driven impacts in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF nexus. It presents the building of ecological networks as a mean to address climate change - induced alterations of ecosystems and the consequences for humans and nature. Reducing the asymmetry between price and value of water resources is identified as an essential aspect to enable sound resource management use decisions. The report highlights the need for comprehensive tools which assist decision makers in dealing with the complexity of WEF nexus interrelations and facilitate sustainable resource management.
Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence
The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas.
Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.
Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused merely on long-term averages. Moreover, we assess some options to overcome chronic or sporadic water scarcity. The analysis is based on historical climate forcing data sets over the period 1977-2006, while demography, diet composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In doing so, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of food production units (FPUs) to produce a reference diet for their inhabitants (3000 kcal cap-1 day-1, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency to estimate dependency on trade from elsewhere). We found that 24% of the world's population lives in chronically water-scarce FPUs (i.e. water is scarce every year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining 21% of the population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference diet over the
Katherine L Barry
Full Text Available Resource limitation during the juvenile stages frequently results in developmental delays and reduced size at maturity, and dietary restriction during adulthood can affect longevity and reproductive output. Variation in food intake can also result in alteration to the normal pattern of resource allocation among body parts or life-history stages. My primary aim in this study was to determine how varying juvenile and/or adult feeding regimes affect particular female and male traits in the sexually cannibalistic praying mantid Pseudomantis albofimbriata. Praying mantids are sit-and-wait predators whose resource intake can vary dramatically depending on environmental conditions within and across seasons, making them useful for studying the effects of feeding regime on various facets of reproductive fitness. In this study, there was a significant trend/difference in development and morphology for males and females as a result of juvenile feeding treatment, however, its effect on the fitness components measured for males was much greater than on those measured for females. Food-limited males were less likely to find a female during field enclosure experiments and smaller males were slower at finding a female in field-based experiments, providing some of the first empirical evidence of a large male size advantage for scrambling males. Only adult food limitation affected female fecundity, and the ability of a female to chemically attract males was also most notably affected by adult feeding regime (although juvenile food limitation did play a role. Furthermore, the significant difference/trend in all male traits and the lack of difference in male trait ratios between treatments suggests a proportional distribution of resources and, therefore, no trait conservation by food-limited males. This study provides evidence that males and females are under different selective pressures with respect to resource acquisition and is also one of very few to show an
Barry, Katherine L
Resource limitation during the juvenile stages frequently results in developmental delays and reduced size at maturity, and dietary restriction during adulthood can affect longevity and reproductive output. Variation in food intake can also result in alteration to the normal pattern of resource allocation among body parts or life-history stages. My primary aim in this study was to determine how varying juvenile and/or adult feeding regimes affect particular female and male traits in the sexually cannibalistic praying mantid Pseudomantis albofimbriata. Praying mantids are sit-and-wait predators whose resource intake can vary dramatically depending on environmental conditions within and across seasons, making them useful for studying the effects of feeding regime on various facets of reproductive fitness. In this study, there was a significant trend/difference in development and morphology for males and females as a result of juvenile feeding treatment, however, its effect on the fitness components measured for males was much greater than on those measured for females. Food-limited males were less likely to find a female during field enclosure experiments and smaller males were slower at finding a female in field-based experiments, providing some of the first empirical evidence of a large male size advantage for scrambling males. Only adult food limitation affected female fecundity, and the ability of a female to chemically attract males was also most notably affected by adult feeding regime (although juvenile food limitation did play a role). Furthermore, the significant difference/trend in all male traits and the lack of difference in male trait ratios between treatments suggests a proportional distribution of resources and, therefore, no trait conservation by food-limited males. This study provides evidence that males and females are under different selective pressures with respect to resource acquisition and is also one of very few to show an effect of juvenile
Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki;
Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports(1) and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased...... of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop-rice and wheat yields were the most...
Butler, Colin D
This is the second of two articles on challenges to future food security in the Asia Pacific region. It focuses on five mechanisms, which can be conceptualised as pathways by which pessimistic Malthusian scenarios, described in the first paper, may become manifest. The mechanisms are (1) climate change, (2) water scarcity, (3) tropospheric ozone pollution, (4) impending scarcity of phosphorus and conventional oil and (5) the possible interaction between future population displacement, conflict and poor governance. This article concludes that a sustainable improvement in food security requires a radical transformation in society's approach to the environment, population growth, agricultural research and the distribution of rights, opportunities and entitlements.
Nambuanyi, Lekunze Ransom
Abstract: This concept paper presents part of a work in progress on a participatory action research project that seeks to investigate the interrelated effects of climate change, agricultural practices and land tenure systems on women’s food security in central Uganda. We examine policy implications...... security; climate change; women; land rights; adaptive capacity...... insecurity. While most Ugandans depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, it is important to recognize that access to land by women and climate factors are central to the question of food security in Uganda. However, a review of the state-of-the-art in food security in this region demonstrates that policy...
Full Text Available Food crop yields depend largely on prevailing climate conditions, especially in Africa, where rain-fed agriculture predominate. The extent to which climate impacts are felt depends principally on the adaptation measures used by farmers. This study focused on the effect of climate change adaptation strategies on farm-level technical efficiency. The study used primary data collected from 360 randomly selected farmers in Southwest Nigeria. Cobb-Douglass stochastic frontier production model was used to analyse the data. Multiple cropping, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates, mulching and cover cropping were the major climate change adaptation strategies employed by the farmers. While land fragmentation and multiple planting dates had significant positive relationships, years of climate change awareness and social capital had significant inverse relationships, with technical inefficiency. This may be because while land fragmentation may hinder farm mechanization, multiple planting dates may increase the monotonousness and drudgery of farming. On the other hand, social capital and climate change awareness could help ameliorate the effects of, particularly, land fragmentation through resource pooling. It is therefore recommended that the farmers be encouraged to form cooperative societies so as to leverage their resource status through collective efforts.
Pjetri, E; Adan, R A; Herzog, H; de Haas, R; Oppelaar, H; Spierenburg, H A; Olivier, B; Kas, M J
The neuropeptide Y (NPY) system in the brain regulates a wide variety of behavioral, metabolic and hormonal homeostatic processes required for energy balance control. During times of limited food availability, NPY promotes behavioral hyperactivity necessary to explore and prepare for novel food resources. As NPY can act via 5 different receptor subtypes, we investigated the path through which NPY affects different behavioral components relevant for adaptation to such conditions. We tested NPY Y1 and Y2 receptor knockout mice and their wild-type littermate controls in a daily scheduled limited food access paradigm with unlimited access to running wheel. Here we show that NPY Y1 receptor deficient mice lack the expression of appetitive behavior and that NPY Y2 receptors control the level of hyperactive behavior under these conditions. Thus, receptor specificity determines the differential expression of NPY-mediated behavioral adaptations to overcome a negative energy status.
Wise, David H
Cannibalism among generalist predators has implications for the dynamics of terrestrial food webs. Spiders are common, ubiquitous arthropod generalist predators in most natural and managed terrestrial ecosystems. Thus, the relationship of spider cannibalism to food limitation, competition, and population regulation has direct bearing on basic ecological theory and applications such as biological control. This review first briefly treats the different types of spider cannibalism and then focuses in more depth on evidence relating cannibalism to population dynamics and food web interactions to address the following questions: Is cannibalism in spiders a foraging strategy that helps to overcome the effects of a limited supply of calories and/or nutrients? Does cannibalism in spiders reduce competition for prey? Is cannibalism a significant density-dependent factor in spider population dynamics? Does cannibalism dampen spider-initiated trophic cascades?
Harsch, Melanie A.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke
Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)–despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species’ elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change. PMID:27447834
Harsch, Melanie A; HilleRisLambers, Janneke
Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)-despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species' elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.
Melanie A Harsch
Full Text Available Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations-despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward. To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year. This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species' elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.
Bentham, Graham; Langford, Ian H.
In recent years there have been several spells of high temperatures providing analogues for the conditions that might become more common as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Statistical models were developed of the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures and these were then used to provide estimates of the possible effects of future warmer summers. Routinely collected data on the number of reported cases of food poisoning were analysed for the years 1982 1991. Regression analysis was used to establish the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures of the same and the previous month. Published scenarios for future temperatures were applied to these statistical models to provide estimates of the possible impacts of warmer conditions. The monthly incidence of food poisoning was found to be significantly associated with the temperature of the same and of the previous month with the latter having the stronger effect. Using published data on the relationship between reported and actual numbers of cases of food poisoning, it is estimated that annually there might be an additional 179 000 cases of food poisoning by the year 2050 as a result of climate change. The observed relationship with the same month's temperature underlines the need for improvements in storage, preparation and hygiene close to the point of consumption. However, there was a much stronger relationship with the temperature of the previous month, indicating the importance of conditions earlier in the food production process. Improvements in areas such as animal husbandry and slaughtering may also be necessary to avoid the adverse effects of a warmer climate.
Pieters MN; Fiolet DCM; Baars AJ; CSR
The mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON) produced by fungi of the Fusarium genus may occur in various cereal crops. A provisional TDI of 1.1 ug per kg body weight was derived to calculate concentration limits for the mycotoxin, deoxynivalenol (DON), in wheat and wheat food products. Children (1-4 years o
Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited inc...
Full Text Available In Indonesia, the climate change and the global warming like changes in the pattern and distribution of the rainfall give impacts on agricultural production at large, especially in the food crops. These also cause droughts, floods, landslides, forest fires, rising temperatures in urban areas, and rising sea levels. The above impacts are felt by the farmers because those can lead to a decrease in production even the crop failure. This research aims to develop an empowerment strategy of the food crop farmers in anticipating the climate change in Central Java. The data used is the primary data obtained through in-depth interviews with key-person and the Focus Group Discussion (FGD. The Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP is conducted to determine the program priorities and strate gies. The result of research shows that anticipating the climate change should be synergistically conducted in four aspects: human resources, technology, institutional and production, by involving various groups in the society. Various groups can be grouped into academics, businessmen / private sectors, government and community of food crop farmers / society.
Climate and demographics are primary drivers of regional resource sustainability. In today's global economy, increasing trade has provided a mechanism to alleviate regional stresses. However, increasing regional income promotes consumption, aggravating regional and global resource pressures. South Asia, has the highest population density at a sub-continent scale. Given its monsoonal climate, and high intensity of agriculture it faces perhaps the most severe population weighted water stress in the world. Rapidly declining groundwater tables and the associated high energy use for pumping for irrigated agriculture translate into unsustainable energy imports and expenditure that contributed to the two largest blackouts in global history in summer 2012. Access to water has been progressively declining for both rural and urban populations for the last 3 decades. The increasing energy imports and poor grid reliability translate into limits to the growth of manufacturing and exports of goods and services. The growing income inequity within the population and across national borders, and the impacts of floods and droughts on access to water, food and energy collectively suggest a very high risk for social unrest and a conflict flashpoint. I present a scenario analysis that establishes this case for the emergence of internal and external strife in the region as an outcome of the current resource and natural disaster management policies in the region. Prospects for strategic policy changes for water and energy management and the design of a food procurement and distribution system that could lead to a better future are discussed.
Full Text Available Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been rather intensively studied, less is known on its impacts on freshwater availability and further implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in agriculture. Analysis is based on climate forcing data for the past 30 yr with demography, diet composition and land use fixed to constant reference conditions. We thus assess how observed interannual hydroclimatic variability impacts on the ability of food production units (FPUs to produce a given diet for their inhabitants, here focused on a benchmark for hunger alleviation (3000 kilocalories per capita per day, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products. We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate spatially explicitly the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (neglecting trade from elsewhere, i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency. We found that altogether 24% of the global population lives in areas under chronic scarcity (i.e. water is scarce every year while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (i.e. water is scarce in some years. Of these 2.6 billion people under some degree of scarcity, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet while for 24% domestic trade would be enough (assuming present cropland extent and management. For the remaining 21% of population under scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years.
Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.
Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been rather intensively studied, less is known on its impacts on freshwater availability and further implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in agriculture. Analysis is based on climate forcing data for the past 30 yr with demography, diet composition and land use fixed to constant reference conditions. We thus assess how observed interannual hydroclimatic variability impacts on the ability of food production units (FPUs) to produce a given diet for their inhabitants, here focused on a benchmark for hunger alleviation (3000 kilocalories per capita per day, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate spatially explicitly the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (neglecting trade from elsewhere, i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency). We found that altogether 24% of the global population lives in areas under chronic scarcity (i.e. water is scarce every year) while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (i.e. water is scarce in some years). Of these 2.6 billion people under some degree of scarcity, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet while for 24% domestic trade would be enough (assuming present cropland extent and management). For the remaining 21% of population under scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years.
Godber, Olivia F; Wall, Richard
Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform.
Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.
Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.
Niiranen, Susa; Yletyinen, Johanna; Tomczak, Maciej T; Blenckner, Thorsten; Hjerne, Olle; Mackenzie, Brian R; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Neumann, Thomas; Meier, H E Markus
Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.
Kummu, Matti; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Konzmann, Markus; Varis, Olli
Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global food production. In this study we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused merely on long-term averages. We further quantify some options to overcome food deficit due to chronic or sporadic water scarcity. We found that 24% of the world's population lives in chronically water scare food production units (FPUs) (i.e. water is scarce every year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining 21% of population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years. The analysis is based on historical climate forcing dataset over the period 1977-2007, while demography, diet composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In so doing, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of FPUs to produce a reference diet for their inhabitants (3,000 kilocalories per capita per day, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). The LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model was used to calculate spatially and explicitly the variation in food production, green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (i
Goldstein, Benjamin Paul; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Fernandez, John
conferring a number of ancillary benefits to host cities (runoff attenuation, urban heat island mitigation) and ex-urban environments (carbon sequestration). Previous environmental assessments have found urban agriculture to be more sustainable than conventional agriculture when performed in mild climates......The past decade has seen a renaissance of urban agriculture in the world's wealthy, northern cities. The practice of producing food in and around cities is championed as a method to reduce environmental impacts of urban food demands (reducing distance from farm to fork - ‘food miles’) whilst......, though opposite findings emerge when external energy inputs are significant. In this study we perform an environmental life cycle assessment of six urban farms in Boston, US producing lettuce and tomatoes, with conventional counterparts across six impact categories. Performance of urban agriculture...
Carl K Winter; Elizabeth A Jara
Alowable levels for pesticide residues in foods, known as tolerances in the US and as maximum residue limits (MRLs) in much of the world, are widely yet inappropriately perceived as levels of safety concern. A novel approach to develop scientiifcaly defensible levels of safety concern is presented and an example to determine acute and chronic pesticide food safety standard (PFSS) levels for the fungicide captan on strawberries is provided. Using this approach, the chronic PFSS level for captan on strawberries was determined to be 2000 mg kg–1 and the acute PFSS level was determined to be 250 mg kg–1. Both levels are far above the existing tolerance and MRLs that commonly range from 3 to 20 mg kg–1, and provide evidence that captan residues detected at levels greater than the tolerance or MRLs are not of acute or chronic health concern even though they represent violative residues. The beneifts of developing the PFSS approach to serve as a companion to existing tolerances/MRLs include a greater understanding concerning the health signiifcance, if any, from exposure to violative pesticide residues. In addition, the PFSS approach can be universaly applied to al potential pesticide residues on al food commodities, can be modiifed by speciifc jurisdictions to take into account differences in food consumption practices, and can help prioritize food residue monitoring by identifying the pesticide/commodity combinations of the greatest potential food safety concern and guiding development of ifeld level analytical methods to detect pesticide residues on prioritized pesticide/commodity combinations.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited incomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of parental feeding styles and young children's evening food intake in a multiethnic sample of families in Head Start. Methods Participants were 715 Head Start children and their parents from Texas and Alabama representing three ethnic groups: African-American (43%, Hispanic (29%, and White (28%. The Caregivers Feeding Styles Questionnaire (Hughes was used to characterize authoritative, authoritarian (referent, indulgent or uninvolved feeding styles. Food intake in several food groups was calculated from 3 days of dietary recalls for the child for evening food intakes from 3 PM until bedtime. Results Compared to children of authoritarian parents, intakes of fruits, juice and vegetables were lowest among children of indulgent or uninvolved parents (1.77 ± 0.09 vs 1.45 ± 0.09 and 1.42 ± 0.11 cups as were intakes of dairy foods (0.84 ± 0.05 vs 0.67 ± 0.05 and 0.63+0.06 cups, respectively. Conclusion Findings suggest that permissive parent feeding styles like indulgent or uninvolved relate negatively to children's intake of nutrient-rich foods fruit, 100% fruit juice, vegetables and dairy foods from 3 PM until bedtime.
Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem
Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.
McJeon, Haewon; Edmonds, Jae; Bauer, Nico; Clarke, Leon; Fisher, Brian; Flannery, Brian P; Hilaire, Jérôme; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Mi, Raymond; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo
The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.
Jacob Koundouonon Moutouama
Full Text Available Understanding impact of climate change on range breadth of rare species can improve the ability to anticipate their decline or expension and take appropriate conservation measures. Haematatostaphis barteri is an agroforestry species of the Sudanian centre of endemism in Africa. We investigeted impact of climate change on range of suitable habitats for this species in Benin,using the Maximum Entropy algorithm under R software. Five environmental variables were used with the regional climate model under the new Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP. Moisture Index of the Moist Quarter and Slope variability had the greatest predictive importance for the range of suitable habitats for H. barteri. Its Potential breadth was found to be currently limited to the Atacora Mountain Chain (AMC and covers 0.51% of national territory. Climate change was projected to favor expansion of suitable habitats for H. barteri by 0.12% and 0.05%, respectively for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These habitats were however mostly out of the local protected areas network. Climate change would extend range of habitats for H. barteri. Observed protection gaps suggest need for integrating this species into formal in situ, on-farm or ex situ conservation schemes.
Full Text Available Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture. The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.
Yinhong Kang; Shahbaz Khan; Xiaoyi Xi
This paper provides a comprehensive review of literature related to the assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity using climate,water and crop yield models.The existing studies present that climate change models with higher spatial resolution can be a way forward for future climate projections.Meanwhile,stochastic projections of more than one climate model are necessary for providing insights into model uncertainties as well as to develop risk management strategies.It is projected that water availability will increase in some parts of the world,which will have its own effect on water use efficiency and water allocation.Crop production can increase if irrigated areas are expanded or irrigation is intensified,but these may increase the rate of environmental degradation.Since climate change impacts on soil water balance will lead to changes of soil evaporation and plant transpiration,consequently,the crop growth period may shorten in the future impacting on water productivity.Crop yields affected by climate change are projected to be different in various areas,in some areas crop yields will increase,and for other areas it will decrease depending on the latitude of the area and irrigation application.Existing modelling results show that an increase in precipitation will increase crop yield,and what is more,crop yield is more sensitive to the precipitation than temperature.If water availability is reduced in the future,soils of high water holding capacity will be better to reduce the impact of drought while maintaining crop yield.With the temperature increasing and precipitation fluctuations,water availability and crop production are likely to decrease in the future.If the irrigated areas are expanded,the total crop production will increase;however,food and environmental quality may degrade.
Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O
Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level.
Kosten, Sarian; Huszar, Vera L M; Mazzeo, Néstor; Scheffer, Marten; Sternberg, Leonel da S L; Jeppesen, Erik
Both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) can limit primary production in shallow lakes, but it is still debated how the importance of N and P varies in time and space. We sampled 83 shallow lakes along a latitudinal gradient (5 degrees 55 degrees S) in South America and assessed the potential nutrient limitation using different methods including nutrient ratios in sediment, water, and seston, dissolved nutrient concentrations, and occurrence of N-fixing cyanobacteria. We found that local characteristics such as soil type and associated land use in the catchment, hydrology, and also the presence of abundant submerged macrophyte growth influenced N and P limitation. We found neither a consistent variation in nutrient limitation nor indications for a steady change in denitrification along the latitudinal gradient. Contrary to findings in other regions, we did not find a relationship between the occurrence of (N-fixing and non-N-fixing) cyanobacteria and the TN:TP ratio. We found N-fixing cyanobacteria (those with heterocysts) exclusively in lakes with dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations of < 100 microg/L, but notably they were also often absent in lakes with low DIN concentrations. We argue that local factors such as land use and hydrology have a stronger influence on which nutrient is limiting than climate. Furthermore, our data show that in a wide range of climates N limitation does not necessarily lead to cyanobacterial dominance.
Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.
... Employment and Training Administration Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a Subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding... Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding Limited, Grove City, Pennsylvania... disposable food service containers or bulk sheet, meet the worker group certification criteria under...
Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander
Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.
Full Text Available Storage insect pests cause significant losses of food legumes particularly in the Tropics and the Sub-tropics. The most important species of storage insect pests of food legumes include Callosobruchus chinensis, C. maculatus, C. analis, Acanthoscelides obtectus, Bruchus incarnatus, B. rufimanus, B. dentipes, B. quinqueguttatus, B. emarginatus, B. ervi, B. lentis and B. pisorum. Effective post-harvest insect pest control measures should constitute part of the overall crop husbandry practices for preserving the quality of produce. Storage insect pests are commonly controlled using chemical insecticides which, however, bear many drawbacks related to high cost, environmental pollution and food safety risks. Breeding legume crops to improve their resistance against storage insect pests, although having technical limitations, is the best way of overcoming these disadvantages in an environment-friendly manner. In this paper, we present the findings of our extensive reviews on the potential of breeding resistant varieties of food legumes against storage insect pests along with the major technical limitations one would likely encounter and the prospective ways of tackling them.
Kroiss, Steve J; Hillerslambers, Janneke
Seed availability and suitable microsites for germination are likely to severely constrain the responses of plant species to climate change, especially at and beyond range edges. For example, range shifts may be slow if seed availability is low at range edges due to low parent-tree abundance or reduced fecundity. Even when seeds are available, climatic and biotic factors may further limit the availability of suitable microsites for recruitment. Unfortunately, the importance of seed and microsite limitation during range shifts remains unknown, since few studies have examined both factors simultaneously, particularly across species' ranges. To address this issue, we assessed seed availability and the factors influencing germination for six conifer species across a large environmental gradient encompassing their elevational ranges. Specifically, we assessed (1) how parent-tree abundance influences annual seed availability; (2) how seed limitation varies across species' ranges; (3) how climatic and biotic factors affect germination; and (4) how seed and suitable microsite availability covary annually within and among species. We found that seed availability declined toward species' upper range edges for most species, primarily due to low parent-tree abundance rather than declining fecundity. Range expansions are thus likely to be lagged with respect to climate change, as long generation times preclude rapid increases in tree density. Negative impacts of canopy cover on germination rates suggest range shifts will further be slowed by competition with existing vegetation. Moreover, years of high seed production were generally correlated among species, but not correlated with the availability of suitable microsites, implying that seedling competition and the interaction between seed and microsite limitation will further constrain recruitment. However, the nature of microsite limitation varied strongly between treeline and low-elevation species due to differing responses
Adrian J Das
Full Text Available Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1 drought stress, or (2 the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.
Das, Adrian J; Stephenson, Nathan L; Flint, Alan; Das, Tapash; van Mantgem, Phillip J
Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation) forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.
Wellenreuther, Maren; Larson, Keith W; Svensson, Erik I
The factors that determine species' range limits are of central interest to biologists. One particularly interesting group comprises odonates (dragonflies and damselflies), which show large differences in secondary sexual traits and respond quickly to climatic factors, but often have minor interspecific niche differences, challenging models of niche-based species coexistence. We quantified the environmental niches at two geographic scales to understand the ecological causes of northern range limits and the coexistence of two congeneric damselflies (Calopteryx splendens and C. virgo). Using environmental niche modeling, we quantified niche divergence first across the whole geographic range in Fennoscandia, and second only in the sympatric part of this range. We found evidence for interspecific divergence along the environmental axes of temperature and precipitation across the northern range in Fennoscandia, suggesting that adaptation to colder and wetter climate might have allowed C. virgo to expand farther north than C. splendens. However, in the sympatric zone in southern Fennoscandia we found only negligible and nonsignificant niche differences. Minor niche differences in sympatry lead to frequent encounters and intense interspecific sexual interactions at the local scale of populations. Nevertheless, niche differences across Fennoscandia suggest that species differences in physiological tolerances limit range expansions northward, and that current and future climate could have large effects on the distributional ranges of these and ecologically similar insects.
Myers, Judith H; Cory, Jenny S; Ericsson, Jerry D; Tseng, Michelle L
Epizootics of nucleopolyhedrovirus characterize declines of cyclic populations of western tent caterpillars, Malacosoma pluviale californicum. In field populations, infection can be apparently lacking in one generation and high in the next. This may suggest an increase in the susceptibility to infection of larvae at peak density or the triggering of a vertically transmitted virus. Here, we test the hypothesis that reduced food availability, as may occur during population outbreaks of tent caterpillars, influences the immunocompetence of larvae and increases their susceptibility to viral infection. We compared immunity factors, hemolymph phenoloxidase and hemocyte numbers, and the susceptibility to nucleopolyhedroviral infection of fifth instar larvae that were fully or partially fed as fourth instars. To determine if maternal or transgenerational influences occurred, we also determined the susceptibility of the offspring of the treated parents to viral infection. Food limitation significantly reduced larval survival, development rate, larval and pupal mass, moth fecundity and levels of hemolymph phenoloxidase, but not the numbers of hemocytes. Neither the food-reduced larvae nor their offspring were more susceptible to viral infection and were possibly even less susceptible at intermediate viral doses. Food reduction did not activate latent or covert viral infection of larvae as might be expected as a response to stress. We conclude that reducing the food intake of fourth instar larvae to an extent that had measurable and realistic impacts on their life history characteristics was not translated into increased susceptibility to viral infection.
Drillet, Guillaume; Hansen, Benni W.; Kiørboe, Thomas
Three populations of the copepod Acartia tonsa, two from the Baltic Sea and one from the U.S. East Coast, were compared for resting egg production at conditions of saturating and limiting food availability. All three populations produced eggs that hatched within 72 h when incubated at 17°C...... (subitaneous eggs), but the two Baltic populations in addition produced eggs that hatched at a much slower rate, in the course of a month (delayed hatching eggs [DHE]). Such eggs were not produced by the U.S. population. The fraction of DHE increased when food was limiting. Females from a Baltic population...... that were incubated individually all produced subitaneous eggs, but about half the females consistently also produced DHE. Cold storage that mimicked boreal winter conditions synchronized the hatching of DHE after extended storage, indicating that spring hatching of DHE might seed the water column...
Buhaug, Halvard; Benjaminsen, Tor A.; Sjaastad, Espen; Magnus Theisen, Ole
Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect relationship. The analysis reveals a robust link between weather patterns and food production where more rainfall generally is associated with higher yields. However, the second step in the causal model is not supported; agricultural output and violent conflict are only weakly and inconsistently connected, even in the specific contexts where production shocks are believed to have particularly devastating social consequences. Although this null result could, in theory, be fully compatible with recent reports of food price-related riots, it suggests that the wider socioeconomic and political context is much more important than drought and crop failures in explaining violent conflict in contemporary Africa.
Full Text Available The Arctic area is a part of the globe where the increase in global temperature has had the earliest noticeable effect and indigenous peoples, including the Swedish reindeer herding Sami, are amongst the first to be affected by these changes.To explore the experiences and perceptions of climate change among Swedish reindeer herding Sami.In-depth interviews with 14 Swedish reindeer herding Sami were performed, with purposive sampling. The interviews focused on the herders experiences of climate change, observed consequences and thoughts about this. The interviews were analysed using content analysis. One core theme emerged from the interviews: facing the limit of resilience. Swedish reindeer-herding Sami perceive climate change as yet another stressor in their daily struggle. They have experienced severe and more rapidly shifting, unstable weather with associated changes in vegetation and alterations in the freeze–thaw cycle, all of which affect reindeer herding. The forecasts about climate change from authorities and scientists have contributed to stress and anxiety. Other societal developments have lead to decreased flexibility that obstructs adaptation. Some adaptive strategies are discordant with the traditional life of reindeer herding, and there is a fear among the Sami of being the last generation practising traditional reindeer herding.The study illustrates the vulnerable situation of the reindeer herders and that climate change impact may have serious consequences for the trade and their overall way of life. Decision makers on all levels, both in Sweden and internationally, need improved insights into these complex issues to be able to make adequate decisions about adaptive climate change strategies.
Trotman, Adrian; Van Meerbeeck, Cedric
Food security is major focus of Caribbean governments, with production being of particular concern. For the past three decades, Caribbean agriculture has been declining in relative importance, both in terms of its contribution to GDP and its share of the labour force. One of the problems Caribbean agriculture faces is the destructive impacts from weather and climate extremes. These include flood, drought, extreme temperatures, and strong winds from tropical cyclones. Other potential disasters, such as from pests and diseases attacks, are also weather and climate driven. These make weather and climate information critically important to decision-making in agriculture in the Caribbean region. In an effort to help reduce weather and climate related risks to the food security sector, The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, along with its partners the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and ten National Meteorological Services from within the Caribbean Community launched and implemented the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI). From 2010 to 2013, CAMI set out to provide relevant information to farmers, and the industry in general, for decision and policy making. The project is funded by the European Union through the Science and Technology Programme of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of Countries' (ACP). The overarching objective of CAMI was to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information, using an integrated and coordinated approach. Currently, this is done through (i) provision of relevant climate information appropriately disseminated, (ii) predictions on seasonal rainfall and temperature, (iii) support for improved irrigation management, (iv) the development of strategically selected weather-driven pest and disease models, (v) use of crop simulation models
Gonzalez Zeas, D.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.
In many countries around the world, water demand for agricultural production already exceeds water availability. Such situation imposes a challenge for food production under future climate change conditions and indicates the need for a policy assessment in order to identify adaptation strategies in the water sector. This contribution provides a methodology to compute water availability for irrigation using a GIS-based model, called "Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment" (WAAPA). The model computes the net water availability for consumptive use for a river basin taking into account the regulation capacity of its water supply system and a set of management standards defined through water policy. The model was applied in 567 basins that cover the entire continental territory of Spain to estimate water availability under different climate change projections. The outputs of the PRUDENCE European project provide the information of the climate change scenarios. Two alternatives of management are proposed based on: reducing water allocation for agriculture, in order to obtain satisfactory water supply reliability or maintaining current water allocation for agriculture, but with the probability of reducing supply reliability. The results show equilibrium between water availability and agricultural demand in current conditions in the great majority of the River Basin Districts of Spain, nonetheless under climate change scenarios, the capability to satisfy the water requirements for agricultural production is significantly reduced, so as the management needs are necessary to mitigate the expected impacts to long term.
Andresen, Louise C.; Konestabo, Heidi S.; Maraldo, Kristine
climate change factors (elevated CO2, increased temperature and drought) were investigated in a full factorial field experiment at a temperate heathland location. The combined effect of biotic and abiotic factors on nitrogen and carbon flows was traced in plant root → litter → microbe → detritivore...... of the microbial biomass, a likely major food source, and the climatic factors. Furthermore, the natural abundance δ13C of enchytraeids was significantly altered in CO2‐fumigated plots, showing that even small changes in δ13C‐CO2 can be used to detect transfer of carbon from primary producers to detritivores. We...... to be a strong coupling of responses in carbon and nitrogen cycling at this temperate heath. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....
Molyneux, Nicholas; da Cruz, Gil Rangel; Williams, Robert L; Andersen, Rebecca; Turner, Neil C
The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5-3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.
Hedvig K Nenzén
Full Text Available Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.
Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L.; Ando , Amy W.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.
Climate change related uncertainty in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation and land-use planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz’s risk diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling policy makers and conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to overcome such uncertainty. However this method is information intensive and requires a large number of climate change scenarios for carrying out fine scale conservation planning. We develop an iterative portfolio 47 analysis technique that enables policy makers and conservation agents to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of sub-regions in a planning landscape in the absence of sufficient number of climate scenarios. We use a case study of the Prairie Pothole Region to show that lack of sufficient information prevents a conservation agent from attaining the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes. However, our iterative approach enables a decision maker to do fine-scale portfolio allocation with limited available climate change forecasts in a manner that obtains the best possible risk-return combinations, especially when targeting low risk opportunities.
Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng
Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.
Kelly, Morgan W; Sanford, Eric; Grosberg, Richard K
The extent to which acclimation and genetic adaptation might buffer natural populations against climate change is largely unknown. Most models predicting biological responses to environmental change assume that species' climatic envelopes are homogeneous both in space and time. Although recent discussions have questioned this assumption, few empirical studies have characterized intraspecific patterns of genetic variation in traits directly related to environmental tolerance limits. We test the extent of such variation in the broadly distributed tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus using laboratory rearing and selection experiments to quantify thermal tolerance and scope for adaptation in eight populations spanning more than 17° of latitude. Tigriopus californicus exhibit striking local adaptation to temperature, with less than 1 per cent of the total quantitative variance for thermal tolerance partitioned within populations. Moreover, heat-tolerant phenotypes observed in low-latitude populations cannot be achieved in high-latitude populations, either through acclimation or 10 generations of strong selection. Finally, in four populations there was no increase in thermal tolerance between generations 5 and 10 of selection, suggesting that standing variation had already been depleted. Thus, plasticity and adaptation appear to have limited capacity to buffer these isolated populations against further increases in temperature. Our results suggest that models assuming a uniform climatic envelope may greatly underestimate extinction risk in species with strong local adaptation.
Full Text Available This discussion explores the opportunities and challenges in enhancing food production and security in the context of climatic variability in Sub Saharan Africa. The promotion of sustainable use of plant and animal products with emphasis on satisfying basic human needs, improving people’s standard of living, enhancing food security and reducing poverty have taken a center stage in Sub Saharan Africa. However, the efforts in this direction are being impacted negatively by climate change, through animal and crop production which have not been spared due to the natural disasters and environmental challenges which have affected all regions of Sub Saharan Africa indiscriminately. Climate is a particularly important driver of food production systems performance at the agriculture end of the food chain. It can affect the quantities and types of food produced as well as production-related income especially for the poor resource farmers. In order to be able to adequately address food production and security in the context of climate, there is need for the region to carry out thorough climatic vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Supporting research and training of experts to carry out vulnerability and adaptation assessments on crop and livestock production is crucial in order for respective countries to develop climate change adaptation measures to meet the obligation on food production and security. Sub Saharan Africa’s agro-ecological regions are variable and need to develop specific adaptive measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Due to the changing climatic conditions which the continent has already witnessed many severe climatic induced vulnerability such as decline in rainfall amounts and intensity, reduced length of rain season and increasing warm and occasionally very hot conditions has affected food production and security. Crop and livestock production systems will need to adapt to higher ambient
Md. Ruhul Amin
Full Text Available The crops that we grow for food need specific climatic conditions to show better performance in view of economic yield. A changing climate could have both beneficial and harmful effects on crops. Keeping the above view in mind, this study is undertaken to investigate the impacts of climate change (viz. changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine on the yield and cropping area of four major food crops (viz. Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat in Bangladesh. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard error (HAC and feasible generalized least square (FGLS methods were used to determine the climate-crop interrelations using national level time series data for the period of 1972–2010. Findings revealed that the effects of all the climate variables have had significant contributions to the yield and cropping area of major food crops with distinct variation among them. Maximum temperature statistically significantly affected all the food crops’ yield except Aus rice. Maximum temperature also insignificantly affected cropping area of all the crops. Minimum temperature insignificantly affected Aman rice but benefited other three crops’ yield and cropping area. Rainfall significantly benefitted cropping area of Aus rice, but significantly affected both yield and cropping area of Aman rice. Humidity statistically positively contributed to the yield of Aus and Aman rice but, statistically, negatively influenced the cropping area of Aus rice. Sunshine statistically significantly benefitted only Boro rice yield. Overall, maximum temperature adversely affected yield and cropping area of all the major food crops and rainfall severely affected Aman rice only. Concerning the issue of climate change and ensuring food security, the respective authorities thus should give considerable attention to the generation, development and extension of drought (all major food crops and flood (particularly Aman
Pedersen, Gitte Alsing; Jensen, Lisbeth Krüger; Fankhauser, A.
Nineteen samples of food in glass jars with twist closures were collected by the national food inspectors at Danish food producers and a few importers, focusing on fatty food, such as vegetables in oil, herring in dressing or pickle, soft spreadable cheese, cream, dressings, peanut butter, sauces...... food simulant olive oil was determined and compared with the legal limit of 60 mg kg(-1). The results ranged from 76 to 519 mg kg(-1) and as a consequence the products were withdrawn from the market....
Full Text Available Different climatic regimes play a determining role not just on the geographical and agronomic distribution of plants, but on the intensity of agricultural plant growth also. Climate affects the mass of structural features and especially the pace of plants development. Regarding climate Albanian territory is part of the sub-band subtropical western coast and it is divided into two climatic zones: Atlantic Mediterranean area and Continental Mediterranean area. But the microclimatic effects arising in our territory make the climate quite diverse. In a relatively small area major changes of climate elements are created, thus a variety of areas with different climatic characteristics and determining impacts on agricultural plant breeding are present. Knowing of the thermal and rainfall limits is important in the cultivation of agricultural plants; the lack of knowledge poses a risk to agricultural cultivations. On the other hand these limits must be seen closely linked to their dynamism and should be studied in relation to possible climate changes. In accordance with the climatic characteristics of agro-ecological zones, should be developed plant cultivation technologies which should take into account the different agricultural systems that are applied in these areas. This study takes into consideration for agro-climatic characterization a developed agricultural area, that of Debar, in the northeast of Albania.
Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.
Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.
Stevens, Tilele; Madani, Kaveh
Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi’s economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi’s dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi’s soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi’s agriculture sector.
Full Text Available The success in achieving the Europe 2020 national objectives depends on the implementation at national level of structural reforms needed to accelerate a growth that is smart, sustainable and favourable to inclusion. The national reform programmes (PNR represent an obligation for each Member State to “translate” at national level the Europe 2020 objectives. In the Romanian National Reform Programme were established, among other priorities, the improvement of the quality of life through sustainable management of renewable resources and mitigation of climate change effects, increasing the energy efficiency, the management of natural resources and pollution reduction. In this paper there will be analyzed the general objectives of the climate change limitation and combating, the strategies to reduce climate change, implemented at the global, european and national level, and also directions for development of the electricity sector. In terms of global strategies, the main measures adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and through the major Conferences of Parties will be analyzed. At the European level, will be examined the Community objectives relating to the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions and the adopted measures to meet the proposed targets, and at the national level there will be evaluated the measures through which Romania implements the policies set at the global and community level. Regarding the directions of development of the energy sector at the European level there will be exposed and analyzed the measures imposed by the European Commission and the Member States, and at the national level, the main directions for action of the energy sector in Romania.
Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L
Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat
Alder eKeleman Saxena
Full Text Available Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data was collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed-methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes a the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia; and b the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp., oca (Oxalis tuberosa, tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis, papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus, and charkay (llama or sheep jerky. Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Further, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. While these findings are drawn from a single case-study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, indigenous food systems. Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture, and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat
Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda
Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system.
Pedersen, Troels Møller; Almeda, Rodrigo; Fotel, Frank Lech;
Food limitation in larval growth of the spionid polychaete Polydora ciliata was examined in a typical eutrophic estuary, Isefjord, in Denmark. In the field, food availability and the energetic requirements of the P. ciliata larval population were measured during 2 different periods in 2004 and 20...
There is now a wealth of satellite data products available with which to evaluate a model fs simulation of tropospheric composition and other model processes. All of these data products have their strengths and limitations that need to be considered for this purpose. For example, uncertainties are introduced into a data product when 1) converting a slant column to a vertical column and 2) estimating the amount of a total column of a trace gas (e.g., ozone, nitrogen dioxide) that resides in the troposphere. Oftentimes, these uncertainties are not well quantified and the satellite data products are not well evaluated against in situ observations. However, these limitations do not preclude us from using these data products to evaluate our model processes if we understand these strengths and limitations when developing diagnostics. I will show several examples of how satellite data products are being used to evaluate particular model processes with a focus on the strengths and limitations of these data products. In addition, I will introduce the goals of a newly formed team to address issues on the topic of "satellite data for improved model evaluation and process studies" that is established in support of the IGAC/SPARC Global Chemistry ]Climate Modeling and Evaluation Workshop.
Thomas, E.; Boscolo-Galazzo, F.; Arreguin-Rodrigu, G. J.; Ortiz, S.; Alegret, L.
The deep-sea is the largest habitat on Earth, contains highly diverse biota, but is very little known. Many of its abundant benthic biota (e.g., nematodes) are not preserved in the fossil record. Calcareous and agglutinated benthic foraminifera (unicellular eukaryotes, Rhizaria; efficient dispersers) and ostracodes (Animalia, Crustacea; non-efficient dispersers) are the most common organisms providing a fossil record of deep-sea environments. Very little food is supplied to the deep-sea, because organic matter produced by photosynthesis is largely degraded before it arrives at the seafloor. Only a few % of organic matter is carried to the ocean bottom by 'marine snow', with its particle size and behavior in the water column controlled by surface ecosystem structure, including type of dominant primary producers (diatoms, cyanobacteria). Food supply and its seasonality are generally seen as the dominant control on benthic assemblages (combined with oxygenation), providing bentho-pelagic coupling between primary and benthic productivity. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages (composition and density) thus are used widely to estimate past productivity, especially during episodes of global climate change, ocean acidification, and mass extinction of primary producers. We show that some environmental circumstances may result in interrupting bentho-pelagic coupling, e.g. through lateral supply of organic matter along continental margins (adding more refractory organic matter), through trophic focusing and/or fine particle winnowing on seamounts (giving an advantage to suspension feeders), and through carbonate undersaturation (giving advantage to infaunal over epifaunal calcifyers). In addition, increased remineralization of organic matter combined with increased metabolic rates may cause assemblages to reflect more oligotrophic conditions at stable primary productivity during periods of global warming. As a result, benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates must be carefully
Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith; Dalgaard, Tommy;
It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here, we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial...... regression modeling with multi-model averaging to assess the extent to which the recent spatiotemporal dynamics of the maize area in Denmark are driven by climate (temperature as represented by maize heating units [MHU] and growing-season precipitation), climate change and non-climatic factors (cattle...... density [in Denmark, maize is mainly grown for ensilage to feed livestock], and sandy soil [facilitates maize growing in cold areas due to higher soil temperature than loamy soils]). Our results indicate that there has been a geographical expansion of maize in Denmark from 1999 to 2008, with a strong link...
Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.
Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio
Emaziye, P. O.
Full Text Available The study examined the food security status and the socio-economic effects of climate change on rural farming households in Delta State, Nigeria. The main objective of the study was to determine the food security status of the rural farming households in the state while the specific objective was to determine the socio-economic effects of climate change on rural farming households in the state. Multistage sampling procedure was used in the random selection of local government, communities and rural households for the research study. The data for the study were obtained with the aids of structured questionnaire survey randomly administered to rural farming households in the state. Food security index was used to determine the level of food insecurity (food security status among the rural households in communities that have been affected by flood and or other climate hazardswhile descriptive statistics was used to summarize the socio-economic effects and their food security status of the rural farming households in the state. Most respondents (65.10% were married with low annual income of N54,702 ($353 which is less than the poverty line of less than $1 (one dollar a day. Most rural farming households witnessed loss of investment on farm lands, lives and income respectively in the state. The study also reveals that rural farming households suffered ill health, such as malaria, water borne diseases and skin infections that were on the increase in the state. The study also revealed that majority of respondents was moderately food insecure. The study also recommends that Government planning agencies and policy makers should put into consideration these food insecurity situations in their planning and policy implementation to prevent future chronic food insecurity situation in the state.
Zhao, G.; Gao, H.; Naz, B. S.; Kao, S. C.; Voisin, N.
During the past several decades, numerous reservoirs have been built across the world for a variety of purposes such as flood control, irrigation, municipal water supplies, and hydropower. Consequently, streamflow timing and magnitude are altered significantly by reservoir operations. In addition, the hydrological cycle can be modified substantially by a changing climate. Therefore, a distributed hydrological model which has an embedded reservoir component is essential for representing these effects in future water management planning strategies. In this study, a multi-purpose reservoir module was integrated into the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). The DHSVM model was selected because of its high spatial and temporal resolution and because of its explicit representation of the physical processes. Prescribed operating rules, which are designed to reduce flood risk and enhance water supply reliability, were adopted in this module. The integrated model was tested over a water-limited basin (i.e. the central Brazos River Basin, Texas). Both the calibration and validation results suggest that the model performed robustly at daily, weekly, and monthly levels. Subsequently, the effect of climate sensitivity on reservoir storage and outflow was assessed by perturbing precipitation within a range from -30% to 30% and temperature from -2 °C to 2 °C. Results suggest that both variables are more sensitive to precipitation than temperature. However, there are more uncertainties associated with future precipitation than temperature. It was also found that the sensitivities vary significantly by season. Enabled with the new reservoir component, the DHSVM model provides a platform for projecting future water availability estimations under flow regulation, climate change, and land cover/land use changes. We expect this integrated model to be beneficial for sustainable water resources management.
A nexus refers to the core or to interconnectivity across issues. Addressing the boundary interactions of traditional sectors in an interconnected world as human activities change the physical boundaries of land and climate is an emerging academic and governance discourse. Through contrasting examples from the US and India, I shed light on the descriptive aspects of these connections and feedbacks that define potential impacts or traps for societies, and ponder whether a massive conceptual or numerical Earth System Model can help inform outcomes, or whether there are dominant links at particular scales (physical, social, economic or biological) that characterize the emergent dynamics and define critical equilibrium or transient solutions in certain places. However, the real question is what next given the definition of the nexus? Here, I argue that given the current valuation and management structure of different resource sectors and the associated information flows and sensitivities, the interlinked energy-climate issues can emerge as useful drivers of improved productivity in water-food systems, thus promoting resource and environmental sustainability while promoting economic development. Thus, levers can be found that help steer the course of these complex interacting systems towards desirable sectoral outcomes.
Duan, M; Zhang, T; Hu, W; Sundström, L F; Wang, Y; Li, Z; Zhu, Z
Food consumption, number of movements and feeding hierarchy of juvenile transgenic common carp Cyprinus carpio and their size-matched non-transgenic conspecifics were measured under conditions of limited food supply. Transgenic fish exhibited 73.3% more movements as well as a higher feeding order, and consumed 1.86 times as many food pellets as their non-transgenic counterparts. After the 10 day experiment, transgenic C. carpio had still not realized their higher growth potential, which may be partly explained by the higher frequency of movements of transgenics and the 'sneaky' feeding strategy used by the non-transgenics. The results indicate that these transgenic fish possess an elevated ability to compete for limited food resources, which could be advantageous after an escape into the wild. It may be that other factors in the natural environment (i.e. predation risk and food distribution), however, would offset this advantage. Thus, these results need to be assessed with caution.
Escribano, Rubén; Bustos-Ríos, Evelyn; Hidalgo, Pamela; Morales, Carmen E.
Zooplankton production is critical for understanding marine ecosystem dynamics. This work estimates copepod growth and production in the coastal upwelling and coastal transition zones off central-southern Chile (~35 to 37°S) during a 3-year time series (2004, 2005, and 2006) at a fixed shelf station, and from spring-summer spatial surveys during the same period. To estimate copepod production (CP), we used species-biomasses and associated C-specific growth rates from temperature dependent equations (food-saturated) for the dominant species, which we assumed were maximal growth rates (gmax). Using chlorophyll-a concentrations as a proxy for food conditions, we determined a size-dependent half-saturation constant with the Michaelis-Menten equation to derive growth rates (g) under the effect of food limitation. These food-dependent C-specific growth rates were much lower (absence of bottom-up control, allowing copepods to grow without limitation due to food resources.
Ruiz, Karina B.; Biondi, Stefania; Oses, Rómulo
. To keep pace with population growth, food production must increase dramatically despite the limited availability of cultivable land and water. Here, we review the benefits of quinoa, Chenopodium quinoa Willd., a seed crop that has endured the harsh bioclimatic conditions of the Andes since ancient times....... Although the crop is still mainly produced in Bolivia and Peru, agronomic trials and cultivation are spreading to many other countries. Quinoa maintains productivity on rather poor soils and under conditions of water shortage and high salinity. Moreover, quinoa seeds are an exceptionally nutritious food...... source, owing to their high protein content with all essential amino acids, lack of gluten, and high content of several minerals, e.g., Ca, Mg, Fe, and health-promoting compounds such as flavonoids. Quinoa has a vast genetic diversity resulting from its fragmented and localized production over...
McClatchie, Sam; Field, John; Thompson, Andrew R; Gerrodette, Tim; Lowry, Mark; Fiedler, Paul C; Watson, William; Nieto, Karen M; Vetter, Russell D
California sea lions increased from approximately 50 000 to 340 000 animals in the last 40 years, and their pups are starving and stranding on beaches in southern California, raising questions about the adequacy of their food supply. We investigated whether the declining sea lion pup weight at San Miguel rookery was associated with changes in abundance and quality of sardine, anchovy, rockfish and market squid forage. In the last decade off central California, where breeding female sea lions from San Miguel rookery feed, sardine and anchovy greatly decreased in biomass, whereas market squid and rockfish abundance increased. Pup weights fell as forage food quality declined associated with changes in the relative abundances of forage species. A model explained 67% of the variance in pup weights using forage from central and southern California and 81% of the variance in pup weights using forage from the female sea lion foraging range. A shift from high to poor quality forage for breeding females results in food limitation of the pups, ultimately flooding animal rescue centres with starving sea lion pups. Our study is unusual in using a long-term, fishery-independent dataset to directly address an important consequence of forage decline on the productivity of a large marine predator. Whether forage declines are environmentally driven, are due to a combination of environmental drivers and fishing removals, or are due to density-dependent interactions between forage and sea lions is uncertain. However, declining forage abundance and quality was coherent over a large area (32.5-38° N) for a decade, suggesting that trends in forage are environmentally driven.
Keijer, Jaap; Bekkenkamp-Grovenstein, Melissa; Venema, Dini; Dommels, Yvonne E M
Cancer cells are resistant to apoptosis and show a shift in energy production from mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation to cytosolic glycolysis. Apoptosis resistance and metabolic reprogramming are linked in many cancer cells and both processes center on mitochondria. Clearly, mutated cancer cells escape surveillance and turn into selfish cells. However, many of the mechanisms that operate cellular metabolic control still function in cancer cells. This review describes the metabolic importance of glucose and glutamine, glycolytic enzymes, oxygen, growth cofactors and mitochondria and focuses on the potential role of bioactive food components, including micronutrients. The role of B- and A-vitamin cofactors in (mitochondrial) metabolism is highlighted and the cancer protective potential of omega-3 fatty acids and several polyphenols is discussed in relation to metabolic reprogramming, including the mechanisms that may be involved. Furthermore, it is shown that cancer cell growth reduction by limiting the growth cofactor folic acid seems to be associated with reversal of metabolic reprogramming. Altogether, reversal of metabolic reprogramming may be an attractive strategy to increase susceptibility to apoptotic surveillance. Food bioactive components that affect various aspects of metabolism may be important tools to reverse glycolytic to oxidative metabolism and enhance sensitivity to apoptosis. The success of such a strategy may depend on several actors, acting in concert. Growth cofactors may be one of these, which call for careful (re)evaluation of their function in normal and in cancer metabolism.
Full Text Available The aim of this work is to analyse the role that typical products can play in the local development process. Territorial resources involved, limits and strategies for their enhancement are analysed; this analysis will permit both to define the results that have been achieved since nowadays in the local development process and to point out future themes for the research in the field of agricultural economics. The typicality of an agri-food product regards qualitative characteristics that derive from its tie with the territory, this tie becomes a relevant element for the differentiation of the typical product from the others. In this context, the typical product maintains all the specificities associated to its origin, involving also aspects related to the traditions and the culture of the territories, to the collective dimension and to the local knowledge. Consumers tent to look for good which are differentiated and to connect authenticity and local specificity of food with healthiness. Due to the strong socio-economic ties that typical products have with the territory, they play a crucial role in the economy of the local systems and can promote development in lagging areas.
Hardy, Bruce L.
Contrary to their cold-adapted image, Neanderthals inhabited Pleistocene Europe during a time of great climatic fluctuation with temperatures ranging from as warm as present-day during the last interglacial to as cold as those of the last glacial maximum. Cold-adapted Neanderthals are similarly most often associated with the exploitation of large mammals who are themselves cold-adapted (mammoth, bison, reindeer, etc.). Cold, high-latitude environments are typically seen as lacking in plants generally and in plant foods in particular. Plant foods are therefore usually ignored and Neanderthals are increasingly being viewed as top carnivores who derived the vast majority of their diet from meat. Support for this hypothesis comes largely from stable isotope analysis which tracks only the protein portion of the diet. Diets high in lean meat largely fulfill micronutrient needs but can pose a problem at the macronutrient level. Lean meat can compose no more than 35% of dietary energy before a protein ceiling is reached. Exceeding the protein ceiling can have detrimental physiological effects on the individual. Neanderthals would have needed energy from alternative sources, particularly when animals are fat-depleted and lean meat intake is high. Underground storage organs (USOs) of plants offer one such source, concentrating carbohydrates and energy. USOs could also provide an important seasonal energy source since they are at their maximum energy storage in late fall/winter. Although Paleolithic sites are increasingly yielding plant remains, their presence is rare and they are often given only passing mention in Neanderthal dietary reconstructions. The complexity and number of potential wild plant foods, however, defies easy discussion. Native European wild edible plants with starchy USOs would have been potentially available throughout the Neanderthal range, even during the coldest periods of the Late Pleistocene.
John A. Seaman
Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have severe effects on the populations of developing countries because many of these depend heavily on agriculture for income, have large impoverished rural populations which rely on agriculture for subsistence, and are financially and technically least equipped to adapt to changing conditions. Planning to target measures to support adaptation to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty and food insecurity requires methods of identifying vulnerable households. This paper describes an established approach to vulnerability assessment, the ‘Household Economy Approach’ (HEA and its potential application to the management of climate change in developing countries. The HEA is widely used by Governments and others, chiefly in Africa, for the assessment of household vulnerability to poverty and food security. HEA uses a model based on Amartya Sen’s entitlement theory and detailed social and economic data to simulate the impact of weather related, price, policy and other shocks on household income and food access, to provide information for decision making. In developing countries climate change will be experienced in terms of increased climate variability and an increased frequency of extreme events. HEA provides a way of managing the effects of year to year shocks to prevent impoverishment and the erosion of household resilience. It also provides the information needed to develop scenarios to support the design of policies to support longer term adaptation. HEA data has already been collected for large areas of Africa.
Vidal, Nicolas; Amsinck, Susanne Lildal; Goncalves, Vitor;
Space-for-time substitution studies (SFTS, e.g. latitudinal gradient analyses) are often used to unravel climate effects on lake biota, and have shown a reduction in size, changes in diet and more frequent reproduction of fish in warmer climates, with cascading effects such as lower zooplankton...... island groups with contrasting climates but similar seasonality: The Faroe Islands (cold; 6.5±2.8°C) and the Azores (warm; 17.3±2.9°C). We analysed community and food web structure using a stable isotopes approach investigating fish, macro-invertebrates, and zooplankton in 20 lakes. We found a smaller...... mean body size of fish in the Azorean lakes even if standardised by maximum length of the fish species present, suggesting a higher predation pressure on zooplankton and consequently higher phytoplankton abundance at the same nutrient levels. A triangular shape of the food web, with wider carbon range...
Stentiford, G D; Neil, D M; Peeler, E J; Shields, J D; Small, H J; Flegel, T W; Vlak, J M; Jones, B; Morado, F; Moss, S; Lotz, J; Bartholomay, L; Behringer, D C; Hauton, C; Lightner, D V
abilities of invertebrates to mitigate assault from pathogens (e.g. the use of RNA interference therapeutics). In terms of fisheries losses associated with disease, key issues are centred on mortality and quality degradation in the post-capture phase, largely due to poor grading and handling by fishers and the industry chain. Occurrence of disease in wild crustaceans is also widely reported, with some indications that climatic changes may be increasing susceptibility to important pathogens (e.g. the parasite Hematodinium). However, despite improvements in field and laboratory diagnostics, defining population-level effects of disease in these fisheries remains elusive. Coordination of disease specialists with fisheries scientists will be required to understand current and future impacts of existing and emergent diseases on wild stocks. Overall, the increasing demand for crustacean seafood in light of these issues signals a clear warning for the future sustainability of this global industry. The linking together of global experts in the culture, capture and trading of crustaceans with pathologists, epidemiologists, ecologists, therapeutics specialists and policy makers in the field of food security will allow these issues to be better identified and addressed.
Busch, D Shallin; Greene, Correigh M; Good, Thomas P
Marine hydrokinetic power projects will operate as marine environments change in response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We considered how tidal power development and stressors resulting from climate change may affect Puget Sound species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and their food web. We used risk tables to assess the singular and combined effects of tidal power development and climate change. Tidal power development and climate change posed risks to ESA-listed species, and risk increased with incorporation of the effects of these stressors on predators and prey of ESA-listed species. In contrast, results of a model of strikes on ESA-listed species from turbine blades suggested that few ESA-listed species are likely to be killed by a commercial-scale tidal turbine array. We applied scenarios to a food web model of Puget Sound to explore the effects of tidal power and climate change on ESA-listed species using more quantitative analytical techniques. To simulate development of tidal power, we applied results of the blade strike model. To simulate environmental changes over the next 50 years, we applied scenarios of change in primary production, plankton community structure, dissolved oxygen, ocean acidification, and freshwater flooding events. No effects of tidal power development on ESA-listed species were detected from the food web model output, but the effects of climate change on them and other members of the food web were large. Our analyses exemplify how natural resource managers might assess environmental effects of marine technologies in ways that explicitly incorporate climate change and consider multiple ESA-listed species in the context of their ecological community. Estimación de los Efectos de Proyectos de Energía de las Mareas y el Cambio Climático sobre Especies Marinas Amenazadas y en Peligro y su Red Alimentaria.
Cole, K.L.; Fisher, J.; Arundel, S.T.; Cannella, J.; Swift, S.
Aim: The geographical extent and climatic tolerances of one- and two-needled pinyon pines (Pinus subsect. Cembroides) are the focus of questions in taxonomy, palaeoclimatology and modelling of future distributions. The identification of these pines, traditionally classified by one- versus two-needled fascicles, is complicated by populations with both one- and two-needled fascicles on the same tree, and the description of two more recently described one-needled varieties: the fallax-type and californiarum-type. Because previous studies have suggested correlations between needle anatomy and climate, including anatomical plasticity reflecting annual precipitation, we approached this study at the level of the anatomy of individual pine needles rather than species. Location: Western North America. Methods: We synthesized available and new data from field and herbarium collections of needles to compile maps of their current distributions across western North America. Annual frequencies of needle types were compared with local precipitation histories for some stands. Historical North American climates were modelled on a c. 1-km grid using monthly temperature and precipitation values. A geospatial model (ClimLim), which analyses the effect of climate-modulated physiological and ecosystem processes, was used to rank the importance of seasonal climate variables in limiting the distributions of anatomical needle types. Results: The pinyon needles were classified into four distinct types based upon the number of needles per fascicle, needle thickness and the number of stomatal rows and resin canals. The individual needles fit well into four categories of needle types, whereas some trees exhibit a mixture of two needle types. Trees from central Arizona containing a mixture of Pinus edulis and fallax-type needles increased their percentage of fallax-type needles following dry years. All four needle types occupy broader geographical regions with distinctive precipitation regimes
Bernhard M Riegl
Full Text Available Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1-3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33-35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as "critically endangered". We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world's most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.
Vericker, Tracy C.
Childhood obesity is emerging as a considerable public health problem with no clear antidote. The school food environment is a potential intervention point for policy makers, with competitive food and beverage regulation as a possible policy lever. This research examines the link between competitive food and beverage availability in school and…
Zee, van der E.L.
The objective of this study is to explore to what extent freedom of expression should protect food businesses against government intervention with corporate communications on food labels. A functional comparative method was used to analyse the objective. It was found that expression on food labels s
Zee, van der E.L.
The objective of this study is to explore to what extent freedom of expression should protect food businesses against government intervention with corporate communications on food labels. A functional comparative method was used to analyse the objective. It was found that expression on food labels s
Rhodes, Christopher J
supply fails, global agriculture fails too, with obvious consequences. Accordingly, on grounds of stabilising the climate, preserving the environment, and ensuring the robustness of the global food supply, maintaining and building good soil, in particular improving its SOM content and hence its structure, is highly desirable. Those regions of the world that are significantly degraded are unlikely to support a massive population increase (e.g. Africa, whose population is predicted to grow from its present 1.1 billion to 4.2 billion by 2100), in which case a die-off or mass migration might be expected, if population control is not included explicitly in future plans to achieve food security.
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the phenomenon of Social Business Enterprises (SBEs and gain anunderstanding of their nature, operations, objectives and implications by using Grameen Danone FoodsLimited (GDFL as an illustration. Within this context, some questions that this paper seeks to explore are: isthe concept of Social Businesses just another ‘fashionable business marketing fad’ that will fade and witherwith time, or does it offer a real workable solution to cure the ills of global poverty? The paper seeks toinvestigate, with Grameen Danone’s case, if, how and to what extent such social businesses help towardssocial and economic uplift of the poor by simultaneously being both suppliers and consumers of theirservices. The case of GDFL is evaluated critically and compared analytically with similar social businesses inthe dairy business sector, in order to gauge its impact on local communities, especially on the target market –malnourished children. Finally, project sustainability is discussed along with consequences of a possiblecommercial scale-up in operations.
Douglass, David H
The global atmospheric temperature anomalies of Earth reached a maximum in 1998 which has not been exceeded during the subsequent 10 years. The global anomalies are calculated from the average of climate effects occurring in the tropical and the extratropical latitude bands. El Nino/La Nina effects in the tropical band are shown to explain the 1998 maximum while variations in the background of the global anomalies largely come from climate effects in the northern extratropics. These effects do not have the signature associated with CO2 climate forcing. However, the data show a small underlying positive trend that is consistent with CO2 climate forcing with no-feedback.
Cohen, S.A.; Hosea, J.C.; Timberlake, J.R.
A limiter with a specially contoured front face is provided. The front face of the limiter (the plasma-side face) is flat with a central indentation. In addition, the limiter shape is cylindrically symmetric so that the limiter can be rotated for greater heat distribution. This limiter shape accommodates the various power scrape-off distances lambda p, which depend on the parallel velocity, V/sub parallel/, of the impacting particles.
Kissling, W Daniel; Blach-Overgaard, Anne; Zwaan, Roelof E; Wagner, Philipp
To what extent deep-time dispersal limitation shapes present-day biodiversity at broad spatial scales remains elusive. Here, we compiled a continental dataset on the distributions of African lizard species in the reptile subfamily Agaminae (a relatively young, Neogene radiation of agamid lizards which ancestors colonized Africa from the Arabian peninsula) and tested to what extent historical colonization and dispersal limitation (i.e. accessibility from areas of geographic origin) can explain present-day species richness relative to current climate, topography, and climate change since the late Miocene (~10 mya), the Pliocene (~3 mya), and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 0.021 mya). Spatial and non-spatial multi-predictor regression models revealed that time-limited dispersal via arid corridors is a key predictor to explain macro-scale patterns of species richness. In addition, current precipitation seasonality, current temperature of the warmest month, paleo-temperature changes since the LGM and late Miocene, and topographic relief emerged as important drivers. These results suggest that deep-time dispersal constraints - in addition to climate and mountain building - strongly shape current species richness of Africa's arid-adapted taxa. Such historical dispersal limitation might indicate that natural movement rates of species are too slow to respond to rates of ongoing and projected future climate and land use change.
Full Text Available The increasing world population, the limitation of the natural availability for food production, the climate issues and the food consumption need for modification imposed a continuous updating of the food security concept. Although Romania has sufficient natural resources, which may ensure, by means of proper exploitation, the population’s food needs, the lack of a unitary approach at the government level, materialized in the dependence on imports and in fluctuations in the agro-food production, leads to a re-evaluation of national food needs. National food security may be affected by a series of risks and threats, which appeared due to an imbalance connected with the availability, the utility and the stability of the agro-food sector, interdependent elements that must be functional. The present article proposes an analysis of food security in Romania, with a short presentation of the concept in an international context.
Caprioli, Daniele; Zeric, Tamara; Thorndike, Eric B; Venniro, Marco
Recent studies have shown that when given a mutually exclusive choice between cocaine and palatable foods, most rats prefer the non-drug rewards over cocaine. Here, we used a discrete choice procedure to assess whether palatable food preference generalizes to rats with a history of limited (3 hours/day) or extended (6 or 9 hours/day) access to methamphetamine self-administration. On different daily sessions, we trained rats to lever-press for either methamphetamine (0.1-0.2 mg/kg/infusion) or palatable food (five pellets per reward delivery) for several weeks; regular food was freely available. We then assessed food-methamphetamine preference either during training, after priming methamphetamine injections (0.5-1.0 mg/kg), following a satiety manipulation (palatable food exposure in the home cage) or after 21 days of withdrawal from methamphetamine. We also assessed progressive ratio responding for palatable food and methamphetamine. We found that independent of the daily drug access conditions and the withdrawal period, the rats strongly preferred the palatable food over methamphetamine, even when they were given free access to the palatable food in the home cage. Intake of methamphetamine and progressive ratio responding for the drug, both of which increased or escalated over time, did not predict preference in the discrete choice test. Results demonstrate that most rats strongly prefer palatable food pellets over intravenous methamphetamine, confirming previous studies using discrete choice procedures with intravenous cocaine. Results also demonstrate that escalation of drug self-administration, a popular model of compulsive drug use, is not associated with a cardinal feature of human addiction of reduced behavioral responding for non-drug rewards.
Pedersen, G A; Jensen, L K; Fankhauser, A; Biedermann, S; Petersen, J H; Fabech, B
Nineteen samples of food in glass jars with twist closures were collected by the national food inspectors at Danish food producers and a few importers, focusing on fatty food, such as vegetables in oil, herring in dressing or pickle, soft spreadable cheese, cream, dressings, peanut butter, sauces and infant food. The composition of the plasticizers in the gaskets was analysed by gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (GC-FID) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Epoxidized soybean oil (ESBO) and phthalates were determined in the homogenized food samples. ESBO was the principal plasticizer in five of the gaskets; in 14 it was phthalates. ESBO was found in seven of the food samples at concentrations from 6 to 100 mg kg(-1). The highest levels (91-100 mg kg(-1)) were in oily foods such as garlic, chilli or olives in oil. Phthalates, i.e. di-iso-decylphthalate (DIDP) and di-iso-nonylphthalates (DINP), were found in seven samples at 6-173 mg kg(-1). The highest concentrations (99-173 mg kg(-1)) were in products of garlic and tomatoes in oil and in fatty food products such as sauce béarnaise and peanut butter. For five of the samples the overall migration from unused lids to the official fatty food simulant olive oil was determined and compared with the legal limit of 60 mg kg(-1). The results ranged from 76 to 519 mg kg(-1) and as a consequence the products were withdrawn from the market.
Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.
The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in a number of economic sectors . The main analysis presents projections of climate impacts with an assumption of "no adaptation". Yet, historically, when the climate imposed an economic cost upon society, adaptive responses were taken to minimise these costs. These adaptive behaviours, both autonomous and planned, can be expected to occur as climate impacts increase in the future. To understand the extent to which adaptation might decrease some of the worst impacts of climate change, we empirically estimate adaptive responses. We do this in three sectors considered in the analysis - crop yield, crime, and mortality - and estimate adaptive capacity in two steps. First, looking at changes in climate impacts through time, we identify a historical rate of adaptation. Second, spatial differences in climate impacts are then used to stratify regions into more adapted or less adapted based on climate averages. As these averages change across counties in the US, we allow each to become more adapted at the rate identified in step one. We are then able to estimate the residual damages, assuming that only the historical adaptive behaviours have taken place (fig 1). Importantly, we are unable to estimate any costs associated with these adaptations, nor are we able to estimate more novel (for example, new technological discoveries) or more disruptive (for example, migration) adaptive behaviours. However, an important insight is that historical adaptive behaviours may not be capable of reducing the worst impacts of climate change. The persistence of impacts in even the most exposed areas indicates that there are non-trivial costs associated with adaptation that will need to be met from other sources or through novel behavioural changes. References:  T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate
Climate and agriculture are inextricably linked: the climate affects agricultural production and is itself affected by agricultural emissions. Agriculture is responsible for 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. How agriculture is practised therefore has significant potential for mitigating climate change, for providing food security and for improving the livelihoods of millions of food producers worldwide. There is growing interest in the use of market governance mechanisms for tackling climate change by giving the financial incentives to make the kinds of changes that are required. But how widely are these mechanisms being used in agriculture, and are they effective in reducing emissions? What impact do they have on adaptation and other aspects of sustainable development? Are they able to balance the competing demands of producers and consumers, the environment and food security? The key messages emerging from this study are that economic measures have a vital part to play within this regulatory context, but they need to be designed with care. To be effective, emissions from food production and consumption must be addressed together. If not, emissions reduced in one region will simply be displaced elsewhere. A balance needs to be struck by applying a mix of approaches – regulatory, economic, voluntary, and information: no single measure will be effective in achieving emissions reductions on its own. 'Soft' measures, such as voluntary agreements and information have a part to play in providing an enabling context for action, but they must be backed up by 'harder' regulatory or economic measures. Regulation, in the form of a cap on emissions, is a prerequisite for other market governance measures to function well. To be effective, MGMs need to consider the social, cultural and economic context within which they operate.
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Schleussner, Carl Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average
Most people think climate change and sustainability are important problems, but too few global citizens engaged in high-greenhouse-gas-emitting behavior are engaged in enough mitigating behavior to stem the increasing flow of greenhouse gases and other environmental problems. Why is that? Structural barriers such as a climate-averse infrastructure…
Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard;
The Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa has experienced recurrent droughts since the mid-1970s and today there is considerable concern for how this region will be able to adapt to future climate change. To develop well targeted adaptation strategies, the relative importance of climate factors...... to be reflected in national adaptation strategies in the region....
van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Naustvoll, L-J
as input for the other. In addition, statistical data analyses using existing national datasets from the study area were performed to obtain information on the relationships between Dinophysis spp. cell counts and contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins as well as on frequency of cereal......Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal....... and the possible relationship with diarrhetic shellfish toxins. The study used currently available data and models. Global and regional climate models were combined with models of crop phenology, mycotoxin prediction models, hydrodynamic models and ecological models, with the output of one model being used...
Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.
Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.
Everton Alves Rodrigues Pinheiro
Full Text Available Given the strong interactions between climate and vegetation, climate change effects on natural and agricultural ecosystems are common objects of research. Reduced water availability is predicted to take place across large regions of the globe, including Northeastern Brazil. The Caatinga, a complex tropical water‐limited ecosystem and the only exclusively Brazilian biome, prevails as the main natural forest of this region. The aim of this study was to examine the soil‐water balance for this biome under a climate‐warming scenario and with reduced rainfall. Climate change projections were assessed from regional circulation models earlier applied to the Brazilian territory. A statistical climate data generator was used to compose a synthetic weather dataset, which was later integrated into a hydrological model. Compared to simulations with current climate for the same site, under the scenario with climate change, transpiration was enhanced by 36%, and soilwater evaporation and interception were reduced by 16% and 34%, respectively. The greatest change in soil‐water components was observed for deep drainage, accounting only for 2% of the annual rainfall. Soil‐plant‐atmosphere fluxes seem to be controlled by the top layer (0.0-0.2 m, which provides 80% of the total transpiration, suggesting that the Caatinga forest may become completely soil‐water pulse dominated under scenarios of reduced water availability.
Sá, João Carlos de Moraes; Lal, Rattan; Cerri, Carlos Clemente; Lorenz, Klaus; Hungria, Mariangela; de Faccio Carvalho, Paulo Cesar
The worldwide historical carbon (C) losses due to Land Use and Land-Use Change between 1870 and 2014 are estimated at 148 Pg C (1 Pg=1billionton). South America is chosen for this study because its soils contain 10.3% (160 Pg C to 1-m depth) of the soil organic carbon stock of the world soils, it is home to 5.7% (0.419 billion people) of the world population, and accounts for 8.6% of the world food (491milliontons) and 21.0% of meat production (355milliontons of cattle and buffalo). The annual C emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in South America represent only 2.5% (0.25 Pg C) of the total global emissions (9.8 Pg C). However, South America contributes 31.3% (0.34 Pg C) of global annual greenhouse gas emissions (1.1 Pg C) through Land Use and Land Use Change. The potential of South America as a terrestrial C sink for mitigating climate change with adoption of Low-Carbon Agriculture (LCA) strategies based on scenario analysis method is 8.24 Pg C between 2016 and 2050. The annual C offset for 2016 to 2020, 2021 to 2035, and 2036 to 2050 is estimated at 0.08, 0.25, and 0.28 Pg C, respectively, equivalent to offsetting 7.5, 22.2 and 25.2% of the global annual greenhouse gas emissions by Land Use and Land Use Change for each period. Emission offset for LCA activities is estimated at 31.0% by restoration of degraded pasturelands, 25.6% by integrated crop-livestock-forestry-systems, 24.3% by no-till cropping systems, 12.8% by planted commercial forest and forestation, 4.2% by biological N fixation and 2.0% by recycling the industrial organic wastes. The ecosystem carbon payback time for historical C losses from South America through LCA strategies may be 56 to 188years, and the adoption of LCA can also increase food and meat production by 615Mton or 17.6Mtonyear(-1) and 56Mton or 1.6Mtonyear(-1), respectively, between 2016 and 2050.
Cathelain, Sarah; Brunault, Paul; Ballon, Nicolas; Réveillère, Christian; Courtois, Robert
Addictions, which are characterized by the inability to control a behavior despite existence of physical or psychological consequences, have biological, psychological and social determinants. Although the possibility of developing an addiction to some psychoactive substances (e.g. alcohol, tobacco, cannabis) and to gambling (i.e., gambling disorder) is now well demonstrated, the possibility to develop a non-drug addiction (i.e., behavioral addiction) to certain behaviors which provide pleasure (e.g. eating, having sex, buying things) is still in debate. The concept of food addiction, which refers to people who exhibit substance dependence criteria in relation to some high-fat and high-sugar foods, was recently proposed by applying substance dependence DSM criteria to eating behavior. To assess food addiction, the Yale Food Addiction Scale is now the only self-administered questionnaire (diagnosis and estimate of the number of symptoms of food addiction). Prevalence for food addiction is higher in overweight and obese patients, and in patients with certain psychopathological characteristics (i.e., depression, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, high impulsivity), in patients who are single and in patients with neurobiological alterations in the reward system. However, it is still unclear whether food addiction is necessary associated with subsequent increase in body weight and/or obesity. An increasing number of studies demonstrated that drug addiction and food addiction shares some similar clinical, neurobiological and psychopathological and sociocultural risk factors. To test the pertinence to include food addiction as an addiction, it would be interesting to conduct future studies in patients who may experience harms related to their food addiction, including not only patients with obesity, but also patients with metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, atherosclerosis, stroke, or coronary heart disease. Food addiction is a clinical
Laux, Patrick; Dang, Thinh; Kunstmann, Harald
We investigate possible impacts of climate change on future floods in the VuGia-ThuBon river basin, central Vietnam using a multi-model climate ensemble. An ensemble of regional climate projections (SRES) derived from different combinations of global and regional climate models in combination with different emission scenarios are used. In order to correct for the biases between the modelled climate variables and the observations, different bias correction techniques such as linear scaling, local intensity scaling, and quantile mapping are applied to the RCM outputs. Bias-corrected and raw climate data are then used as input for the fully distributed hydrological water balance model WaSIM-ETH to reproduce discharge data at NongSon station. Annual maximum discharges are extracted from the modeled daily series from the control period (1980-1999) and the future periods 2011-2030, 2031-2050, and 2080-2099 for subsequent extreme frequency analyses. To derive flood frequency curves for the four time periods, the generalized extreme value probability distribution is fitted to the data. Our analysis shows that actually none of the bias correction approaches applied to the control runs of simulated precipitation data can satisfactorily correct their distributions towards those of the observations. Therefore, this study builds further on the delta change approach, which adjusts the observed extreme values by the derived signals from the hydrological simulations fed by raw future climate projections. Adjusted return periods of e.g. HQ100 values are calculated based on the delta change method. The results inhibit a remarkable variation among the different climate scenarios in representing extreme values. Results show that MRI-MRI, ECHAM3-REMO, HadCMQ10-HadRM3P and HadCMQ13-HadRM3P models always exhibit a positive signal for all considered time slices and climate change scenarios. On the other hand, CCSM-MM5 frequently shows a negative signal for all time slices. On average, an
Melanie A Harsch; Janneke HilleRisLambers
Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)-despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was sig...
Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment
Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment
Storage insect pests cause significant losses of food legumes particularly in the Tropics and the Sub-tropics. The most important species of storage insect pests of food legumes include Callosobruchus chinensis , C. maculatus , C. analis , Acanthoscelides obtectus , Bruchus incarnatus , B. rufimanus , B. dentipes , B. quinqueguttatus , B. emarginatus , B. ervi , B. lentis and B. pisorum . Effective post-harvest insect pest control measures should constitute part of the overall crop husbandry ...
Stewart, I. T.; Bacon, C. M.; Sundstrom, W.
Smallholder farmers in Nicaragua and throughout much of Central America preserve forest biodiversity and contribute to the sustainable production of coffee and other crops while, paradoxically, they themselves must cope with recurring periods of seasonal hunger. Smallholder food and water security in the region is affected by hurricanes, periodic drought events, climatic changes, an on-going outbreak of the coffee leaf rust, and fluctuations in food prices. Using regression analysis, our research examines what factors strengthened resilience to these hazards at the household level over the 1981 - 2014 time period. To this end, we integrate qualitative research on coping responses and local institutions, a participatory survey of 368 households, and an analysis of hydro-climatic data. Our results indicate that coping responses to the coffee leaf rust outbreak and the 2014 drought are comparable in severity to those used to endure Hurricane Mitch in 1998, and a severe 2009 drought. Higher smallholder resilience to stresses affecting food and water security is associated with larger farms, off-farm employment, more on-farm food production, higher numbers of fruit trees, and greater coffee harvests. Households that reported more severe coping responses to hazards earlier in the study period tended to be more strongly impacted by later hazards and reported generally greater seasonal hunger. Affiliation with local farmer-to-farmer institutions prioritizing either subsistence-oriented production or sales to international fair-trade markets did not correlate strongly with coping responses; however, subsistence-oriented institutions promote several resilience-enhancing practices. Lessons learned by adapting to past hazards may be used to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies for smallholders under continued climate variability and change.
Paczolt, Kimberly A; Jones, Adam G
Syngnathid fishes (pipefishes, seahorses and seadragons) are characterized by a unique mode of paternal care in which embryos develop on or in the male's body, often within a structure known as a brood pouch. Evidence suggests that this pouch plays a role in mediating postcopulatory sexual selection and that males have some control over the events occurring within the pouch during the pregnancy. These observations lead to the prediction that males should invest differently in broods depending on the availability of food. Here, we use the Gulf pipefish to test this prediction by monitoring growth rate and offspring survivorship during the pregnancies of males under low- or high-food conditions. Our results show that pregnant males grow less rapidly on average than non-pregnant males, and pregnant males under low-food conditions grow less than pregnant males under high-food conditions. Offspring survivorship, on the other hand, does not differ between food treatments, suggesting that male Gulf pipefish sacrifice investment in somatic growth, and thus indirectly sacrifice future reproduction, in favor of current reproduction. However, a positive relationship between number of failed eggs and male growth rate in our low-food treatments suggests that undeveloped eggs reduce the pregnancy's overall cost to the male compared to broods containing only viable offspring.
Tinker, M.T.; Bentall, G.; Estes, J.A.
Dietary diversity often varies inversely with prey resource abundance. This pattern, although typically measured at the population level, is usually assumed to also characterize the behavior of individual animals within the population. However, the pattern might also be produced by changes in the degree of variation among individuals. Here we report on dietary and associated behavioral changes that occurred with the experimental translocation of sea otters from a food-poor to a food-rich environment. Although the diets of all individuals were broadly similar in the food-rich environment, a behaviorally based dietary polymorphism existed in the food-poor environment. Higher dietary diversity under low resource abundance was largely driven by greater variation among individuals. We further show that the dietary polymorphism in the food-poor environment included a broad suite of correlated behavioral variables and that the individuals that comprised specific behavioral clusters benefited from improved foraging efficiency on their individually preferred prey. Our findings add to the growing list of examples of extreme individuality in behavior and prey choice within populations and suggest that this phenomenon can emerge as a behavioral manifestation of increased population density. Individuality in foraging behavior adds complexity to both the fitness consequences of prey selection and food web dynamics, and it may figure prominently as a diversifying process over evolutionary timescales. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
方修琦; 郑景云; 葛全胜
-curity, individual food security, and social security are discussed. For human society, climate change means the changes of climatic resources or disasters. Impacts of climate change occurred from the direct impact on the grain harvest, then transferred further up to the sub-systems of economy, population and society mainly though the impact-response chain of climate change, agriculture harvest per capita food supply, famine, and social sta-bility. However, the impact-response processes of climate change could not be attributed to a simple causality. The initial impact could be amplified or suppressed in feedback processes affected by many factors in each sub-system, such as arable land, population, policy, foreign forces, and so on. Both people’s spontaneous be-haviours and the government's organized policies and operations played very important roles in all steps of ad-justing the responses on the impacts of climate change. But each adjustment had its limitation under the given historical condition. The impact of climate change could be positive or negative. To a certain degree, even the negative impacts could be converted into new opportunity for development if right countermeasures were tak-en. This article has provided a framework on the impact-response processes of historical climate change. Fur-ther research should be carried out to measure the processes quantitatively on the base of the framework.
Guadalupe Rivera Ferré, Marta; Di Masso, Marina; Vara, Isabel; Mailhost, Mara; Bhatta, Goppal; Cuellar, Mamem; López-i-Gelats, Feliu; Gallar, Donald
In the regions that experience substantial climatic risks, considerable traditional expertise exists that is underutilized and that could be valuable as a starting point to build more effective strategies for adapting to climate change and ensure food availability. Some of these are agronomic strategies for soil conservation targeting erosion avoidance as a form to ensure soil fertility and thus, crop production and food availability. Following an extensive literature review in the Indogangetic Plans, we have identified many different practices derived from local traditional knowledge that can be classified as i) Reshaping the landscape (terracing, bunding, efficient distribution of land uses); ii) Stream diversion to reduce flood impact (channels along the edges of the fields, embankments, dams, network of ponds, outlets, walls and fencing); and iii) Others (agroforesty, use of specific trees as indicators of soil erosion, crop-fallow rotation, preservation of patches of forests, reforestation, collective management of forests). These endogenous-based practices have a great potential for adaptation since they are more easily adopted by communities, they require of minimum or not external expertise and aid, and usually, are cheaper than other strategies. A combination of local knowledge with other scientific knowledge may be the most effective way to face climate change. This work was performed as part of the CCAFS-Program of the CGIAR in South Asia.
Onoja, Anthony O.
Full Text Available This study investigated the extent to which climate variability (proxied by rainfall variability and macroeconomic policies influenced food crop output in Nigeria. It used time series data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics (1978-2009. Four functional forms of OLS models were tried. The Cobb-Douglas function was finally adopted based on standard econometric model selection criteria and diagnosis. Chow test was used to test the hypotheses of the study. It was found that rainfall variability influenced crop output negatively. Climatic factor, loans guaranteed by Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund and lending rate were all statistically significant drivers of crop output in the economy at p<0.05, p<0.01 and p<0.05 respectively. Their elasticities were respectively 4.01%, 0.52% and 0.98%. No structural difference between the economic reform era and the preceding era‟s regression coefficients was found. Programmes to stem corruption and loan diversion; subsidization of agricultural credit and climate change adaptation capacity building programmes were recommended to bring about sustainable food security in the country.
Full Text Available In sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge on adaptation strategies to climate variability and change are scattered and fragmented due to lack of standpoints adaptation framework. This paper intends to analyse differences in adaptation strategies across agro-ecological zones, and finding out factors dictating adaptation to climate variability and change to smallholder farmers. The paper is based on documentary review methodology in which journals and books on adaptation were used as the main sources of information. The collected information were analysed by using content analysis. This paper found that smallholder farmers use a variety of practices to adapt to climate variability and change. These practices include: crop management, livestock management, diversification of livelihood strategies and land use management. Availability of extension services, climate change information and membership to social networks were among the factors identified dictating smallholder farmers adaptation to climate variability and change. The paper recommends to the Government of sub-Saharan Africa and development partners to come up with adaptation framework that takes into consideration differences in geographical location. They are needed also to provide enabling conditions to smallholder farmers through strengthening farmers’ supportive services to enhance their adaptive capacities.
Antonides, G.; Cramer, L.
Consumer food choices may partly be explained by the endowment effect. Here, we focus on the influence of limited cognitive capacity on loss aversion related to food choices. We also investigate the effects of anticipated feelings on food choices. Experiments with 1614 pupils of secondary schools sh
Lowe, Maria R.; Byron, Reginald A.; Ferry, Griffin; Garcia, Melissa
This article describes a study that explored factors which influenced undergraduate students' perceptions of the racial climate at a predominantly white liberal arts university in the South. Mixed methods results suggest that race, aspects of the institutional climate, and frequent interracial dining experiences in the campus cafeteria…
Dinh, Khuong Van; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby
Extreme temperatures and exposure to agricultural pesticides are becoming more frequent and intense under global change. Their combination may be especially problematic when animals suffer food limitation. We exposed Coenagrion puella damselfly larvae to a simulated heat wave combined with food...... limitation and subsequently to a widespread agricultural pesticide (chlorpyrifos) in an indoor laboratory experiment designed to obtain mechanistic insights in the direct effects of these stressors in isolation and when combined. The heat wave reduced immune function (activity of phenoloxidase, PO...... variables. While the immediate effects of the heat wave were subtle, our results indicate the importance of delayed effects in shaping the total fitness impact of a heat wave when followed by pesticide exposure. Firstly, the combination of delayed negative effects of the heat wave and starvation...
Magoni, Marcello; Menoni, Scira
This book explores the nexus among food, energy and water in peri-urban areas, demonstrating how relevant this nexus is for environmental sustainability. In particular it examines the effective management of the nexus in the face of the risks and trade-offs of mitigation policies, and as a mean to create resilience to climate change. The book delineates strategies and actions necessary to develop and protect our natural resources and improve the functionality of the nexus, such as: integrated management of the major resources that characterize the metabolism of a city, stronger coordination among stakeholders who often weight differently the services that are relevant to their individual concerns, integration of efforts towards environmental protection, adaptation to and prevention of climate change and disaster risks mitigation.
Wagner, Fabien H.; Hérault, Bruno; Bonal, Damien; Stahl, Clément; Anderson, Liana O.; Baker, Timothy R.; Becker, Gabriel Sebastian; Beeckman, Hans; Boanerges Souza, Danilo; Botosso, Paulo Cesar; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Bräuning, Achim; Brede, Benjamin; Brown, Foster Irving; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Cardoso, Fernanda C.G.; Carvalho, Fabrício Alvim; Castro, Wendeson; Chagas, Rubens Koloski; Chave, Jérome; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Clark, Deborah A.; Costa, Flavia Regina Capellotto; Couralet, Camille; Silva Mauricio, Da Paulo Henrique; Dalitz, Helmut; Castro, De Vinicius Resende; Freitas Milani, De Jaçanan Eloisa; Oliveira, De Edilson Consuelo; Souza Arruda, De Luciano; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Drew, David M.; Dünisch, Oliver; Durigan, Giselda; Elifuraha, Elisha; Fedele, Marcio; Ferreira Fedele, Ligia; Figueiredo Filho, Afonso; Finger, César Augusto Guimarães; Franco, Augusto César; Freitas Júnior, João Lima; Galvão, Franklin; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Gliniars, Robert; Lima De Alencastro Graça, Paulo Maurício; Griffiths, Anthony D.; Grogan, James; Guan, Kaiyu; Homeier, Jürgen; Kanieski, Maria Raquel; Kho, Lip Khoon; Koenig, Jennifer; Kohler, Sintia Valerio; Krepkowski, Julia; Lemos-filho, José Pires; Lieberman, Diana; Lieberman, Milton Eugene; Lisi, Claudio Sergio; Longhi Santos, Tomaz; López Ayala, José Luis; Maeda, Eduardo Eijji; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maria, Vivian R.B.; Marques, Marcia C.M.; Marques, Renato; Maza Chamba, Hector; Mbwambo, Lawrence; Melgaço, Karina Liana Lisboa; Mendivelso, Hooz Angela; Murphy, Brett P.; O'Brien, Joseph J.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Okada, Naoki; Pélissier, Raphaël; Prior, Lynda D.; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Ross, Michael; Rossatto, Davi Rodrigo; Rossi, Vivien; Rowland, Lucy; Rutishauser, Ervan; Santana, Hellen; Schulze, Mark; Selhorst, Diogo; Silva, Williamar Rodrigues; Silveira, Marcos; Spannl, Susanne; Swaine, Michael D.; Toledo, José Julio; Toledo, Marcos Miranda; Toledo, Marisol; Toma, Takeshi; Tomazello Filho, Mario; Valdez Hernández, Juan Ignacio; Verbesselt, Jan; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Vincent, Grégoire; Volkmer De Castilho, Carolina; Volland, Franziska; Worbes, Martin; Zanon, Magda Lea Bolzan; Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.
The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 incl
Stentiford, G.D.; Neil, D.M.; Peeler, E.J.; Shields, J.D.; Small, H.J.; Flegel, T.W.; Vlak, J.M.; Jones, B.; Morado, F.; Moss, S.; Lotz, J.; Bartholomay, L.; Behringer, D.C.; Hauton, C.; Lightner, D.V.
Seafood is a highly traded food commodity. Farmed and captured crustaceans contribute a significant proportion with annual production exceeding 10 M metric tonnes with first sale value of $40bn. The sector is dominated by farmed tropical marine shrimp, the fastest growing sector of the global aquacu
Full Text Available Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T and available dissolved oxygen (DO that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1 °C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past (1961–2008 and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate.
Loevbrand, E. [Environmental Science Section, Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Kalmar University, SE-391 82 Kalmar (Sweden)
Despite great advances in carbon cycle research during the past decade the climatic impact of terrestrial ecosystems is still highly uncertain. Although contemporary studies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere has acted as a net sink to atmospheric carbon during the past two decades, the future role of terrestrial carbon pools is most difficult to foresee. When land use change and forestry activities were included into the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the requirements for scientific precision increased significantly. At the same time the political expectations of carbon sequestration as climate mitigation strategy added uncertainties of a social kind to the study of land-atmosphere carbon exchange that have been difficult to address by conventional scientific methods. In this paper I explore how the failure to take into account the effects of direct human activity in scientific projections of future terrestrial carbon storage has resulted in a simplified appreciation of the risks embedded in a global carbon sequestration scheme. I argue that the social limits to scientific analysis must be addressed in order to accommodate these risks in future climate governance and to enable continued scientific authority in the international climate regime.
Fatuase, A. I.
This paper examines the likely perceived causes of climate change, adaptation strategies employed and technical inefficiency of arable crop farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria. Data were obtained from primary sources using a set of structured questionnaire assisted with interview schedule. Multistage sampling technique was used. Data were analyzed using the following: descriptive statistics and the stochastic frontier production function. The findings showed that majority of the respondents (59.1 %) still believed that climate change is a natural phenomenon that is beyond man's power to abate while industrial release, improper sewage disposal, fossil fuel use, deforestation and bush burning were perceived as the most human factors that influence climate change by the category that chose human activities (40.9 %) as the main causes of climate change. The main employed adaptation strategies by the farmers were mixed cropping, planting early matured crop, planting of resistant crops and use of agrochemicals. The arable crop farmers were relatively technically efficient with about 53 % of them having technical efficiency above the average of 0.784 for the study area. The study observed that education, adaptation, perception, climate information and farming experience were statistically significant in decreasing inefficiency of arable crop production. Therefore, advocacy on climate change and its adaptation strategies should be intensified in the study area.
Full Text Available Maximum Entropy Production conjecture (MEP is applied to a minimal four-box model of climate which accounts for both horizontal and vertical material heat fluxes. It is shown that, under condition of fixed insolation, a MEP solution is found with reasonably realistic temperature and heat fluxes, thus generalising results from independent two-box horizontal or vertical models. It is also shown that the meridional and the vertical entropy production terms are independently involved in the maximisation and thus MEP can be applied to each subsystem with fixed boundary conditions. We then extend the four-box model by increasing its number of degrees of freedom, and test its realism by comparing it with a GCM output. An order-of-magnitude evaluation of contributions to the material entropy production (≈50 mW m−2 K−1 due to horizontal and vertical processes within the climate system is carried out by using ad hoc temperature fields. It turns out that approximately 40 mW m−2 K−1 is the entropy production due to vertical heat transport and 5–7 mW m−2 K−1 to horizontal heat transport. A MEP solution is found which is fairly realistic as far as the horizontal large scale organisation of the surface climate is concerned whereas the vertical structure looks to be unrealistic and presents seriously unstable features. Finally a more general problem is investigated in which the longwave transmissivity is varied simultaneously with the temperature. This leads to a MEP solution characterised by a much warmer climate, with very vigorous vertical heat fluxes, in which the atmosphere is opaque to longwave radiation. A critical discussion about how to interpret MEP and how to apply it in a physically correct way concludes the paper.
Huete, A. R.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Wu, J.; Devadas, R.; Guan, K.; Liu, Y.; Ratana, P.; Sun, Q.; Schaaf, C.; Saleska, S. R.
Climate change scenarios projected for the 21st century predict drying of the Amazon, greening of monsoon tropical Asia and no change in the tropics of Australia. Dry season variability is increasing with complex associated forest responses and feedbacks as they become exposed to longer and/or more intense dry seasons. The functional response of tropical forests to dry seasonal periods is thus crucial to forest resilience, as forests may respond with either enhanced photosynthesis (due to more sunlight) or may dry down with greater susceptibility to fires and release of greenhouse gases and severe public health haze alerts. In this study, we use multiple satellite remote sensing datasets representing forest canopy states, environmental drivers (light and water status), and disturbance (fires), along with in situ flux tower measures of photosynthesis to assess whole ecosystem patterns and test mechanisms of forest- dry season climate interactions. We compare photosynthesis patterns and dry season responses of Asia-Oceania tropical forests with neotropical forests to better understand forest resilience to climate change and human impacts. In contrast to the neotropics, human activities in monsoon tropical Asia have resulted in intensive transformations of tropical forests. We find forest disturbance exerts a strong influence on tropical forest functioning and a partial loss or degradation of tropical forests can reverse dry seasonal responses with substantial impacts on carbon fluxes. Neotropical forests displayed large variations in dry season forest responses due to spatially variable dry season lengths and magnitude, whereas most of monsoon Asia tropical forests lacked well-defined dry seasons, yet were highly sensitive to shorter term, intense drought events that impacted severely upon the disturbed forests. Our results highlight the interactions among rainfall, radiation and forest health with the relative importance of each factor varying with the
McLachlan, J. S.
The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.
Croft, Gregory Donald
on aggregated reserve numbers. Electric power generation consumes 92 percent of U.S. coal production. Natural gas competes with coal as a baseload power generation fuel with similar or slightly better generation efficiency. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, described in Chapter 2, creates transportation fuel from coal with an efficiency of less than 45 percent. Claims of higher efficiencies are based on waste heat recovery, since this is a highly exothermic process. The yield of liquid fuel as a proportion of the energy content of the coal input is always less than 45 percent. Compressed natural gas can be used for vehicle fuel with efficiency greater than 98 percent. If we view Fischer-Tropsch synthesis as a form of arbitrage between markets for electricity and transportation fuel, coal cannot simultaneously compete with natural gas for both transportation fuel and electric power. This is because Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is a way to turn power generation fuel into transportation fuel with low efficiency, while natural gas can be converted to transportation fuel with much greater efficiency. For this reason, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis will be an uneconomic source of transportation fuel as long as natural gas is economic for power generation. This conclusion holds even without the very high capital cost of coal-to-liquids plants. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has generated forty carbon production and emissions scenarios, see the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000). Chapter 4 develops a base-case scenario for global coal production based on the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data. Areas with large resources but little production history, such as Alaska or Eastern Siberia, can be treated as sensitivities on top of this base case. The value of our approach is that it provides a reality check on the magnitude of carbon emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The resulting base case is significantly
Kosten, S.; Huszar, V.M.; Mazzeo, N.; Scheffer, M.; Sternberg, L.S.L.; Jeppesen, E.
Both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) can limit primary production in shallow lakes, but it is still debated how the importance of N and P varies in time and space. We sampled 83 shallow lakes along a latitudinal gradient (5°–55° S) in South America and assessed the potential nutrient limitation usin
Dunham, J.B.; Dickerson, B. R.; Beever, E.; Duncan, R. D.; Vinyard, G.L.
1. The theory of food-regulated self-thinning (FST) for mobile animals predicts population density (N) to be an inverse function of mean body mass (W) scaled to an exponent (b), such that N = k W−b, where k is a constant. FST also predicts energy requirements (or energy flow) to remain constant over time (termed energetic equivalence) as losses to cohorts (e.g. emigration and mortality) are balanced by increased growth of surviving individuals.
Full Text Available Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080 on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.
Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang
Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.
Sittaro, Fabian; Paquette, Alain; Messier, Christian; Nock, Charles A
Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970-1978, 2000-2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr(-1) , than for adults, 0.13 km yr(-1) . Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems.
Pörtner, H. O.
Recent years have shown a rise in mean global temperatures and a shift in the geographical distribution of ectothermic animals. For a cause and effect analysis the present paper discusses those physiological processes limiting thermal tolerance. The lower heat tolerance in metazoa compared with unicellular eukaryotes and bacteria suggests that a complex systemic rather than molecular process is limiting in metazoa. Whole-animal aerobic scope appears as the first process limited at low and high temperatures, linked to the progressively insufficient capacity of circulation and ventilation. Oxygen levels in body fluids may decrease, reflecting excessive oxygen demand at high temperatures or insufficient aerobic capacity of mitochondria at low temperatures. Aerobic scope falls at temperatures beyond the thermal optimum and vanishes at low or high critical temperatures when transition to an anaerobic mitochondrial metabolism occurs. The adjustment of mitochondrial densities on top of parallel molecular or membrane adjustments appears crucial for maintaining aerobic scope and for shifting thermal tolerance. In conclusion, the capacity of oxygen delivery matches full aerobic scope only within the thermal optimum. At temperatures outside this range, only time-limited survival is supported by residual aerobic scope, then anaerobic metabolism and finally molecular protection by heat shock proteins and antioxidative defence. In a cause and effect hierarchy, the progressive increase in oxygen limitation at extreme temperatures may even enhance oxidative and denaturation stress. As a corollary, capacity limitations at a complex level of organisation, the oxygen delivery system, define thermal tolerance limits before molecular functions become disturbed.
Townsend, Andrea K; Cooch, Evan G; Sillett, T Scott; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L; Holmes, Richard T; Webster, Michael S
Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.
Nelson, Donald R.; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Eakin, Hallie; Lo, Yun-Jia
The relationship between poverty and climate change vulnerability is complex and though not commensurate, the distinctions between the two are often blurred. There is widespread recognition of the need to better understand poverty-vulnerability dynamics in order to improve risk management and poverty reduction investments. This is challenging due to the latent nature of adaptive capacities, frequent lack of baseline data, and the need for high-resolution studies. Here we respond to these challenges by analyzing household-level data in Northeast Brazil to compare drought events 14 years apart. In the period between droughts, the government implemented an aggressive anti-poverty program that includes financial and human capital investments. Poverty declined significantly, but the expected reduction in vulnerability did not occur, in part because the households were not investing in risk management strategies. Our findings complement other research that shows that households make rational decisions that may not correspond with policymaker expectations. We emphasize the need for complementary investments to help channel increased household wealth into risk reduction, and to ensure that the public sector itself continues to prioritize the public functions of risk management, especially in areas where the social cost of climatic risk is high.
Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R.; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B.
Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale—a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability. PMID:27601643
Powlson, David S.; Stirling, Clare M.; Jat, M. L.; Gerard, Bruno G.; Palm, Cheryl A.; Sanchez, Pedro A.; Cassman, Kenneth G.
The Emissions Gap Report 2013 from the United Nations Environment Programme restates the claim that changing to no-till practices in agriculture, as an alternative to conventional tillage, causes an accumulation of organic carbon in soil, thus mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration. But these claims ignore a large body of experimental evidence showing that the quantity of additional organic carbon in soil under no-till is relatively small: in large part apparent increases result from an altered depth distribution. The larger concentration near the surface in no-till is generally beneficial for soil properties that often, though not always, translate into improved crop growth. In many regions where no-till is practised it is common for soil to be cultivated conventionally every few years for a range of agronomic reasons, so any soil carbon benefit is then lost. We argue that no-till is beneficial for soil quality and adaptation of agriculture to climate change, but its role in mitigation is widely overstated.
Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B
Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability.
Griffiths, H.; Royles, J.; Horwath, A.; Hodell, D. A.; Convey, P.; Hodgson, D.; Wingate, L.; Ogeé, J.
Bryophytes make a significant contribution to carbon sequestration and storage in polar, boreal, temperate and tropical biomes, and yet there is limited understanding of the determinants of carbon isotope composition. Bryophytes are poikilohydric and lack stomata in the vegetative (gametophyte) stage, and lack of roots and reliance on liquid water to maintain hydration status also imposes diffusional limitations on CO2 uptake and extent of carbon isotope discrimination. Real-time gas exchange and instantaneous discrimination studies can be used to quantify responses to liquid phase limitation. Thus, wetted tissues show less negative δ13C signals due to liquid phase conductance and, as the thallus surface dries, maximum CO2 assimilation and discrimination are attained when the limitation is primarily the internal (mesophyll) conductance. Continued desiccation then leads to additional biochemical limitation in drought tolerant species, and low discrimination, although the carbon gain is low at this time. In this paper we explore the extent of carbon isotope discrimination in bulk organic material and cellulose as a function of climatic and environmental conditions, in temperate, tropical and Antarctic bryophytes. Field studies have been used to investigate seasonal variations in precipitation and water vapour inputs for cloud forest formations as a function of bryophyte biomass, diversity and isotope composition in epiphytes (particularly leafy liverworts) along an altitudinal gradient in Peru. In the Antarctic, moss banks sampled on Signy Island consisted of only two species, primarily Chorisodontium aciphyllum and some Polytrichum strictum, allowing the collection of shallow and deep cores representative of growth over the past 200 to 2000 years. The well-preserved peat has provided data on growth (14C) and stable isotopic proxies (13C, 18O) for material contemporary with recent anthropogenic climate forcing (over the past 200 years), for comparison with longer
Kelli K. Garcia
Full Text Available Today’s global health challenges require a multi-sectoral approach in which health is a fundamental value within global governance and international law. “One Health, One World” provides a unified, harmonious vision of global health governance that supports the wellbeing of humans and animals living in a clean and temperate environment. This article focuses on five legal regimes—trade law, food security law, environmental law, humanitarian law, and refugee law—that play a pivotal role in influencing health outcomes and are integral to achieving the One Health, One World vision. International trade, for example, opens markets not only to life-saving products such as vaccines, medicines, and medical equipment, but also to life-threatening products such as tobacco and asbestos. If strengthened and enforced, environmental law can decrease air and water pollution, major causes of death and disability. World hunger has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis and climate change, increasing the urgency for international law to enhance food security. Humanitarian law must similarly be strengthened to protect civilians adequately as the nature of warfare continues to change. Refugee law plays a pivotal role in protecting the health of deeply vulnerable people who lack food, shelter, and social stability. Higher standards and more effective compliance are necessary for international law to realize its full potential to safeguard the world's population.
韦晓群; 谢力; 邹志飞; 相大鹏; 李志勇; 甄宇江
食物中致敏原的管理是食品安全的重要内容之一,而食物致敏原限量对消费者、食品监管部门、企业都有着重要的实际意义,但食物致敏原限量却难以被严格、科学地确定.本文综述了欧盟、美国、澳大利亚以及日本等国家和组织食物致敏原限量的确定方法,并提出了我国食物致敏原限量确定的建议.%Since food allergen is one of the most important parts in food safety management, limiting food allergen has important practical significance for consumers with food allergy, food safety regulators and food enterprises; however, food allergen limits are difficult to be defined strictly and scientifically. The methods of defining food allergen limits in European Union, USA, Australia and Japan were reviewed. Suggestions for establishing food allergen limits in China are proposed.
Full Text Available Climatic sensitivity of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench Voss was examined growing in association with trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx. at their southern limit of distribution in a transitional ecotone between the southern boreal forest and northern prairie region. The study was carried out in the Spruce Woods Provincial Park (SWPP located in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. The dry regional climate restricted trembling aspen growth during the growing season via moisture deficiency and temperature induced drought stress. Warm, mild winters also negatively affected radial growth of trembling aspen. Growth of white spruce was moderated by conditions within the aspen stands as radial growth patterns showed low variability from year to year, a low common growth signal, and a stronger response to temperature than to precipitation. Nonetheless, the dry regional climate still restricted growth of white spruce during the growing season via temperature induced drought stress. The findings of the study for white spruce support the stress gradient hypothesis in which facilitative interactions between tree species are expected under harsher environmental conditions.
Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.;
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess cli...
Baker, Robert L
Based on evidence from field manipulations, several authors have recently suggested that interference competition among larval odonates reduces individual growth rates and biomass by reducing foraging rates. This study was designed to test the effects of food shortage on "condition" (relative mass per unit head width) of larval Ischnura verticalis (Odonata: Coenagrionidae) under laboratory conditions and to use these results to estimate the degree of food shortage of larvae under naturally occurring field conditions. In the laboratory, there were marked differences in condition of larvae fed diets ranging from ad libitum feeding with worms to ad libitum feeding with Daphnia 1 day out of every 8. Condition of larvae collected from May through October from 17 different sites in southern Ontario indicated that, for most of the year, larvae had conditions similar to those fed ad libitum with Daphnia in the laboratory. There was no evidence that larval condition was related to population density. Condition of larvae in most sites during July was similar to that of larvae fed poor diets in the laboratory. It is unlikely that the low conditions were due to competition as there were no correlations with density across sites and population densities during July were at their lowest. Adult head widths showed a seasonal decline from mid June to the end of the flight season. There was no evidence that head widths were related to population density although there was some evidence that head widths of males were positively related to larval condition. My results do not support the hypothesis that competition is important in affecting foraging rates and subsequent development of larvae. Contrasts between my results and other studies may stem from difficulties with the interpretation of field experiments, that densities in my study may have been low due to fish predation, and/or that I. verticalis larvae are slow moving relative to other larvae and thus less likely to interact.
Adegoke, J. O.
Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.
Kaspari, Michael; Roeder, Karl A; Benson, Brittany
Nitrogen and phosphorus frequently limit terrestrial plant production, but have a mixed record in regulating the abundance of terrestrial invertebrates. We contrasted four ways that Na could interact with an NP fertilizer to shape the plants and invertebrates of an inland prairie. We applied NP a...
Ginnerup-Nielsen, Elisabeth; Christensen, Robin; Bliddal, Henning;
PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a specialized rosehip powder nutraceutical on the biomechanical function of the knee joint during walking in individuals with knee-related walking limitations. METHODS: Randomized, participant and outcome assessor blinded trial. Participants with self-reported...
Kilic, Onur Alper; Akkerman, Renzo; Grunow, Martin;
and processing costs are minimized. However, this product selection process is bound by production and storage capacity limitations, such as the number and size of storage tanks or silos. In this paper, we present a mathematical programming approach that combines decision making on product selection...
Pieters, M.N.; Freijer, J.; Baars, B.J.; Fiolet, D.C.M.; Klaveren, van J.D.; Slob, W.
The mycotoxin, deoxynivalenol (DON), is produced world-wide by the Fusarium genus in different cereal crops. We derived a provisional TDI of 1.1 mug/kg body weight (bw) and proposed a concentration limit of 129 mug DON/kg wheat based on this TDI and a high wheat consumption of children. In the perio
Full Text Available In the last decades, nutrition labels have provided an increasing amount of information about the nutritional value of a foodstuff, in a variety of patterns, having the main goal to help consumers in making healthier food choices. Now, many questions appeared related to the effectiveness of nutrition information in guiding the consumer purchasing behaviour, by encouraging the healthy foods choice. It becomes increasingly clear that many consumers have difficulties in understanding the nutritional information, preferring a simpler way in providing this information, helping them in the rapid evaluation of the nutritional characteristics of a foodstuff. In response to the obvious need to develop a more effective presentation of nutritional information, which convey this information in a simplified and systematic manner, manufacturers and retailers from different countries have created some systems for signalling the nutritional profile. For the nutritional information of greatest interest to be easily perceived by consumers, they have used various forms of graphical representation, that were marked on the front of individual packages (generically called "front of package" - FOP. Although created in order to facilitate healthy food choices, the effect of these FOP systems on consumers is now controversial. Following a literature review, the paper highlights the main benefits and limitations of the widely used FOP systems in the European Union ("Traffic Light" and "Guideline Daily Amounts". The paper presents also some suggestions for developing an optimal FOP system, standardized and adapted to consumers` needs.
Khumairoh, U.; Groot, J.C.J.; Lantinga, E.A.
Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers
Vetter, Sylvia H; Sapkota, Tek B; Hillier, Jon; Stirling, Clare M; Macdiarmid, Jennie I; Aleksandrowicz, Lukasz; Green, Rosemary; Joy, Edward J M; Dangour, Alan D; Smith, Pete
Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. The growing global population is putting pressure on agricultural production systems that aim to secure food production while minimising GHG emissions. In this study, the GHG emissions associated with the production of major food commodities in India are calculated using the Cool Farm Tool. GHG emissions, based on farm management for major crops (including cereals like wheat and rice, pulses, potatoes, fruits and vegetables) and livestock-based products (milk, eggs, chicken and mutton meat), are quantified and compared. Livestock and rice production were found to be the main sources of GHG emissions in Indian agriculture with a country average of 5.65 kg CO2eq kg(-1) rice, 45.54 kg CO2eq kg(-1) mutton meat and 2.4 kg CO2eq kg(-1) milk. Production of cereals (except rice), fruits and vegetables in India emits comparatively less GHGs with <1 kg CO2eq kg(-1) product. These findings suggest that a shift towards dietary patterns with greater consumption of animal source foods could greatly increase GHG emissions from Indian agriculture. A range of mitigation options are available that could reduce emissions from current levels and may be compatible with increased future food production and consumption demands in India.
Lawrence, Geoffrey; Richards, Carol; Lyons, Kristen
For over 150 years Australia has exported bulk, undifferentiated, commodities such as wool, wheat, meat and sugar to the UK and more recently to Japan, Korea, and the Middle East. It is estimated that, each year, Australia's farming system feeds a domestic population of some 22 million people, while exporting enough food to feed another 40…
Schaffner, Donald W; Buchanan, Robert L; Calhoun, Stephen; Danyluk, Michelle D; Harris, Linda J; Djordjevic, Darinka; Whiting, Richard C; Kottapalli, Bala; Wiedmann, Martin
Peanuts and peanut-containing products have been linked to at least seven salmonellosis outbreaks worldwide in the past two decades. In response, the Technical Committee on Food Microbiology of the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute collaborated with the American Peanut Council to convene a workshop to develop a framework for managing risk in low-moisture food commodities where large data sets are unavailable (using peanuts as the example). Workshop attendees were charged with answering questions regarding the appropriate statistical and scientific methods for setting log reduction targets with limited pathogen prevalence and concentration data, suitable quantities of data needed for determining appropriate log reduction targets, whether the requirement of a 5-log reduction in the absence of data to establish a target log reduction is appropriate, and what targeted log reduction would protect public health. This report concludes that the judgment about sufficient data is not solely scientific, but is instead a science-informed policy decision that must weigh additional societal issues. The participants noted that modeling efforts should proceed with sampling efforts, allowing one to compare various assumptions about prevalence and concentration and how they are combined. The discussions made clear that data and risk models developed for other low-moisture foods like almonds and pistachios may be applicable to peanuts. Workshop participants were comfortable with the use of a 5-log reduction for controlling risk in products like peanuts when the level of contamination of the raw ingredients is low (food safety community may eventually conclude that as additional data, assumptions, and models are developed, alternatives to a 5-log reduction might also result in the desired level of protection for peanuts and peanut products.
Turetsky, M. R.; Benscoter, B.; Olefeldt, D.
Northern peatlands have served as persistent, small sinks of atmospheric CO2 throughout the Holocene. In western Canada, peatlands exist on the drier spectrum of global peatland distributions. As a result, peatlands in this region are drier (e.g., no/few open pools in bogs and poor fens) and all bogs are treed. Because they occupy this climate space, continental peatlands might be regarded as being vulnerable to future warming and drying. On the other hand, these peatlands and their plant communities might already be adapted to drier conditions, conferring some resistance to climate change. The position of the water table within a peatland serves as a dominant control on peat accumulation rates, as it influences plant structure and productivity, decomposition, and dissolved carbon export. Many studies predict that lower water table position, in response to enhanced evapotranspiration or drought, will cause peatlands to release stored C back to the atmosphere, indicative of a state change to an ecosystem type that no longer supports long-term peat accumulation. A 10-yr drainage experiment at the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX) sites showed that lowering the water table made a rich fen more of an atmospheric C source, primarily by altering plant species composition and lowering plant primary production rather than by increasing soil CO2 flux. Multi-decadal drainage of Canadian peatlands also resulted in changes in plant species composition, with increasing tree and shrub canopy coverage and declines in moss abundance. Increased forestation in western Canadian peatlands will have large impacts on fire danger, which also has the potential to cause long-term shifts in plant and ecosystem structure, either through severe burning of surface peat layers or by inducing permafrost thaw. This talk will present findings from empirical and modeling studies examining peatland responses to warming, drought, permafrost thaw, and wildfires. Within the context of these dominant
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of limited food intake (LFI (24, 48 and 120 h and a single i.p. dose of vitamin C supplementation (500 mg/kg on serum glucose and C-peptide levels, and pancreatic insulin and glucagon levels in guinea pigs. The highest serum glucose levels were found after vitamin C supplementation plus LFI for 48 h (LFI 48. Serum C-peptide levels were not significantly affected by food limitation (LFI 24, LFI 48, or LFI 120 as compared with controls, but when vitamin C was supplemented, the C-peptide levels were moderately enhanced. Immunohistochemical findings on pancreatic islets showed increased staining intensity for both insulin and glucagon when vitamin C was supplemented. In addition, the alpha and beta cells were stimulated, particularly by vitamin C supplementation plus LFI 120. Based on these findings, vitamin C supplementation may have a beneficial effect on the alpha and beta cells.
Full Text Available Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0 oC. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.
Liu, Xinsheng; Nie, Yuqin; Luo, Tianxiang; Yu, Jiehui; Shen, Wei; Zhang, Lin
Alpine and northern treelines are primarily controlled by low temperatures. However, little is known about the impact of low soil temperature on tree transpiration at treelines. We aim to test the hypothesis that in cold-limited forests, the main limiting factors for tree transpiration switch from low soil temperature before summer solstice to atmospheric evaporative demand after summer solstice, which generally results in low transpiration in the early growing season. Sap flow, meteorological factors and predawn needle water potential were continuously monitored throughout one growing season across Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) and juniper (Juniperus saltuaria) treelines in southeast Tibet. Sap flow started in early May and corresponded to a threshold mean air-temperature of 0°C. Across tree species, transpiration was mainly limited by low soil temperature prior to the summer solstice but by vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation post-summer solstice, which was further confirmed on a daily scale. As a result, tree transpiration for both tree species was significantly reduced in the pre-summer solstice period as compared to post-summer solstice, resulting in a lower predawn needle water potential for Smith fir trees in the early growing season. Our data supported the hypothesis, suggesting that tree transpiration mainly responds to soil temperature variations in the early growing season. The results are important for understanding the hydrological response of cold-limited forest ecosystems to climate change.
Vidal, Nicolas; Yu, Jinlei; Gutierrez, Maria Florencia
A reduction in runoff and higher evaporation rates are expected to occur towards 2050 in arid and semiarid regions of the world, resulting in a reduction of water level and salinization of inland waters. Besides the natural process of catchment erosion, human activities such as irrigation of crops...... may also increase salinization. Reduced biodiversity in freshwater systems is the most commonly reported effect of salinization, which may have implications for food web structure and likely for ecosystem functioning as well. The objective of the study was to analyze the effects of salinity...... on community and food web structure in 24 lakes along a wide salinity gradient, from freshwater (0.5 g L-1) to hypersaline lakes (115 g L-1), in a semiarid region in North West China. Fish, zooplankton and macroinvertebrate communities were sampled during July 2014 for determination of taxonomy and size...
Wagner, Annekatrin; Benndorf, Jürgen
Temperature-driven changes in interactions between populations are crucial to the estimation of the impact of global warming on aquatic food webs. We analysed inter-annual variability in two data sets from Bautzen reservoir, Germany. In a long-term data set (1981-1999) we examined the pelagic phenology of Daphnia galeata, a keystone species, the invertebrate predator Leptodora kindtii, phytoplankton and Secchi depth in relation to water temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. In a short-term data set (1995-1998) we examined food web relations, particularly the consumption of D. galeata by young-of-the-year (YOY) percids and L. kindtii and rates of population change of D. galeata (abundance, recruitment pattern and non-consumptive mortality). The start of the clear-water stage (CWS) was correlated with winter temperatures. It started 5.8 days earlier per degree warming after warm winters (mean January-March temperature>or=2.5 degrees C) compared to cold winters (mean temperatureor=14 degrees C) compared to years when it was low (changes in whole lake food webs and thus alter entire ecosystems.
Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn; Andersen, Laura Mørch; Christensen, Tove
correlation between increasing organic budget shares and decreasing meat budget shares is found. People include food-related behaviour such as the purchase of organic food and reduced meat consumption as ways to mitigate climate change. However, other behavioural modifications such as reduction of car usage...... and household heating are perceived as more important strategies. Research limitations/implications – Other food-related mitigation strategies could be investigated. The climate effect of different diets – and how to motivate consumers to pursue them – could be investigated. Individual as opposed to household...... the climate-friendliness of consumption using consumption of organic food as a case. The authors link stated concerns for climate changes with actual food-related behaviour....
Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) is a prevention based food safety system that identifies and monitors specific food safety hazards that can adversely affect the safety of food products. The Critical Control Point in a cooked roast beef plant is to cool the product’s internal temperat...
Pope, I.; Harbor, J.
The challenges of food security in the central Highlands of Guatemala are linked to deforestation, land degradation, and climate change. The Q'eqchi' Maya people that inhabit this region are smallholder farmers who rely on subsistence agriculture for survival. The Q'eqchi' support themselves with timber products and ecosystem services provided by the cloud forest, a unique ecosystem where a substantial portion of water is obtained through the condensation of water droplets onto vegetation via cloud filtration. Over the past 30 years, small-scale deforestation of the cloud forest in the Sierra Yalijux and Sacranix has increased as demand for agricultural land has risen. A link between the decline of cloud forest cover and an increase in severe precipitation events that drive soil erosion has been observed in the study area. As a result, land degradation poses a serious threat to the long-term food security of Q'eqchi' communities. We have examined the social, cultural, and land tenure dynamics that impact the ability of the Q'eqchi' to adapt to the rapidly changing climate, as well as to implement recommendations for grassroots initiatives to enhance these adaptations. Using remote-sensing we constructed three land use change maps that show that deforestation rates have increased by over 200% between 1986-2006 in the Sierra Yaljux and Sacranix mountain ranges, largely due to slash and burn agriculture. Using these land use change maps as an input into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation we show that implementation of agroecological techniques to counter the impacts of land use change drastically reduces soil erosion and is the best management practice. Surveys and focus groups in several Q'eqchi' villages revealed that precipitation events have become less frequent and more intense over the past 30 years, and temperatures have generally been increasing as well. Q'eqchi' people have observed that increasing severe precipitation events have accelerated soil
Jacxsens, L.; Luning, P.A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Devlieghere, F.; Leemans, R.; Uyttendaele, M.
The current quality assurance and control tools and methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to the following pressures upon the food supply chain, i.e. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. It demonstrates
Dhara, Chirag; Kleidon, Axel
Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and mass balances alone. We use a simple energy balance model in which convective fluxes and surface temperatures are determined with the additional thermodynamic limit of maximum convective power. We then show that the broad geographic variation of heat fluxes and surface temperatures in the climatological mean compare very well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis over land and ocean. We also show that the estimates depend considerably on the formulation of longwave radiative transfer and that a spatially uniform offset is related to the assumed cold temperature sink at which the heat engine operates.
Full Text Available The effects of internal model variability on the simulation of Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been examined with the aid of a seven-member ensemble with a coupled regional climate model for the period 1948–2008. Beyond general weaknesses related to insufficient representation of feedback processes, it is found that the model's ability to reproduce observed summer sea-ice retreat depends mainly on two factors: the correct simulation of the atmospheric circulation during the summer months and the sea-ice volume at the beginning of the melting period. Since internal model variability shows its maximum during the summer months, the ability to reproduce the observed atmospheric summer circulation is limited. In addition, the atmospheric circulation during summer also significantly affects the sea-ice volume over the years, leading to a limited ability to start with reasonable sea-ice volume into the melting period. Furthermore, the sea-ice volume pathway shows notable decadal variability which amplitude varies among the ensemble members. The scatter is particularly large in periods when the ice volume increases, indicating limited skill in reproducing high-ice years.
Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger
As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.
Full Text Available Food limitation early in life may be compensated for by developmental plasticity resulting in accelerated development enhancing survival at the expense of small adult body size. However and especially for females in non-matching maternal and offspring environments, being smaller than the standard may incur considerable intra- and trans-generational costs.Here, we evaluated the costs of small female body size induced by food limitation early in life in the sexually size-dimorphic predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. Females are larger than males. These predators are adapted to exploit ephemeral spider mite prey patches. The intra- and trans-generational effects of small maternal body size manifested in lower maternal survival probabilities, decreased attractiveness for males, and a reduced number and size of eggs compared to standard-sized females. The trans-generational effects of small maternal body size were sex-specific with small mothers producing small daughters but standard-sized sons.Small female body size apparently intensified the well-known costs of sexual activity because mortality of small but not standard-sized females mainly occurred shortly after mating. The disadvantages of small females in mating and egg production may be generally explained by size-associated morphological and physiological constraints. Additionally, size-assortative mate preferences of standard-sized mates may have rendered small females disproportionally unattractive mating partners. We argue that the sex-specific trans-generational effects were due to sexual size dimorphism - females are the larger sex and thus more strongly affected by maternal stress than the smaller males - and to sexually selected lower plasticity of male body size.
Kipping, Ruth; Eastcott, Howard; Sarangi, Joyshri
Ciguatera toxin causes a range of gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and neurological symptoms that occur within 1-6 h of ingesting fish with the toxin and can last for days, months or years. It is a well-recognized problem in the tropics. Avon Health Protection Team investigated food poisoning on a ship at Avonmouth, which was thought by the crew to be related to a white snapper fish from the Caribbean. The symptoms were initially thought to be scombroid fish poisoning but were consistent with ciguatera fish poisoning. Cases of fish poisoning from fish imported from the Caribbean and Pacific or travellers returning from tropical countries may be ciguatera fish poisoning, but mistakenly diagnosed as scombroid fish poisoning.
Cederberg, C; Hedenus, F; Wirsenius, S; Sonesson, U
-increase target of 2° might imply a severe constraint on the long-term global consumption of animal food. Due to the relatively limited potential for reducing food-related emissions by higher productivity and technological means, structural changes in food consumption towards less emission-intensive food might be required for meeting the 2° target.
The carbon sink capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils is 50 to 66% of the historic carbon loss of 42 to 78 gigatons of carbon. The rate of soil organic carbon sequestration with adoption of recommended technologies depends on soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature, farming system, and soil management. Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growing energy crops on spare lands. An increase of 1 ton of soil carbon pool of degraded cropland soils may increase crop yield by 20 to 40 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) for wheat, 10 to 20 kg/ha for maize, and 0.5 to 1 kg/ha for cowpeas. As well as enhancing food security, carbon sequestration has the potential to offset fossil-fuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons of carbon per year, or 5 to 15% of the global fossil-fuel emissions.
Appleton, S.; St George, S.
This study investigates the climate sensitivity of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr.) near the southern limit of its range, tests the stability of its climate-tree relations over the last few decades, and explores its potential as a hydroclimatic proxy for Crater Lake National Park. We collected tree cores at seven locations around the caldera rim, focusing on hemlock growing at higher elevations (2000-2400 masl). The median length of all ring-width series is 283 years, and the oldest hemlock sample extends back to C.E. 1450. Several types of anatomical anomalies, including frost rings, traumatic resin ducts, false rings, and light late-wood bands were observed within the specimens, the most common feature being a false ring in C.E. 1810. Each set of standardized ring-width measurements has a strong common signal, with between-tree correlations (r-bar) ranging from 0.31 to 0.49. Preliminary analysis suggests hemlock growth across the park is strongly and inversely related to total cool-season precipitation, and is also influenced positively (albeit more weakly) by mean summer temperature. Most sites are significantly and negatively correlated with total December-to-February precipitation (r = -0.41) and total precipitation from December to August (r = -0.48). Compared to other ring-width records exhibiting similar negative responses to winter precipitation, these hemlocks appear to track that specific signal quite clearly and, as a result, these data may be suitable to reconstruct past changes in cool-season moisture in Crater Lake National Park and across the broader southern Cascades.
Tao, Yuqiang; Xue, Bin; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Fei; Wang, Zhen
To date effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in planktonic food webs have rarely been studied. Recruitments of plankton have shifted earlier due to global warming. Global warming and precipitation patterns are projected to shift seasonally. Whether and how the shifts in plankton phenology induced by climate change will impact bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants, and how they will respond to climate change are largely unknown. Here, we combine data analysis of the past seven decades, high temporal resolution monitoring and model development to test this hypothesis with nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China. We find biphasic correlations between both bioconcentration factors and bioaccumulation factors of the PAHs and the mean temperature, which depend on the recruitment temperatures of cyanobacteria, and copepods and cladocerans. The positive correlations between bioconcentration factors, bioaccumulation factors and the mean temperature will be observed less than approximately 13-18 days by 2050-2060 due to the shifts in plankton phenology. The PAHs and their bioaccumulation and biomagnification will respond seasonally and differently to climate change. Bioaccumulation of most of the PAHs will decrease with global warming, with higher decreasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Biomagnification of most of the PAHs from phytoplankton to zooplankton will increase with global warming, with higher increasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Our study provides novel insights into bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in eutrophic waters under climate change scenarios.
Full Text Available Background: The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods: Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results: A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions: If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.
Mayor, S.; Andrew, M. E.; Elmendorf, S.; Guralnick, R. P.; Minor, E. S.; Schneider, D.; Tersigni, V.; Thibault, K. M.; Tingley, M. W.; Withey, J. C.
We explored analytical issues that come with challenging ecological concepts against large data sets. As an example, we examined the expected mismatch between the phenology (annual timing) of endothermic migratory birds with the phenology of primarily ectothermic (degree-day dependent) food resources. We hypothesized that bird phenology, which is often tightly hormonally tied to day length cues would be increasing out of phase the phenology of their food resources, due to increases in both mean and variability of spring temperatures. Specifically, we tested whether bird populations have been able to match their migration times to the timing of spring 'greenup', when food resources become plentiful. If not, we also test if suboptimal migration timing resulted in negative fitness consequences for individual bird species? We expected (1) a mismatch between optimal migration time and observed migration time; (2) greater variation in mean timing of ectothermic prey resources than migratory arrival of endothermic birds; (3) higher per capita survival and reproduction of species with the smallest optimal/observed migration timing mismatch. We tested these expectations with rich datasets extensive in both time and space. We brought together nearly a decade of migratory arrival records for over 100 bird species across the continental U.S. (eBird) with remotely sensed (MODIS) time of spring greenup, which is concurrent with insect abundance, and survival and reproduction estimates for each bird species (MAPS). In testing these questions with large data sets, we encountered several challenges. First, selecting the spatial scale(s) of analyses involve a priori estimation of scale(s) at which birds select food resources, and mismatches depend on analytical scale. To assess a mismatch in phenology (between birds and food), we attempted to minimize a mismatch in scales (between analyses and phenomena). Second, forming causal linkages between variables relied on previous
Koch, J. C.; Wipfli, M.; Schmutz, J.; Gurney, K.
Arctic ecosystems are changing rapidly as a result of a warming climate. While many areas of the arctic are expected to dry as a result of warming, the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, which extends from the Brooks Range north to the Beaufort Sea will likely become wetter, because subsurface hydrologic fluxes are constrained by thick, continuous permafrost. This landscape is characterized by large, oriented lakes and many smaller ponds that form in the low centers and troughs/edges of frost polygons. This region provides important breeding habitat for many migratory birds including loons, arctic terns, eiders, shorebirds, and white-fronted geese, among others. Increased hydrologic fluxes may provide a bottom-up control on the success of these species by altering the availability of food resources including invertebrates and fish. This work aimed to 1) characterize surface water fluxes and nutrient availability in the small streams and lake types of two study regions in the ACP, 2) predict how increased hydrological fluxes will affect the lakes, streams, and water chemistry, and 3) use nutrient additions to simulate likely changes in lake chemistry and invertebrate availability. Initial observations suggest that increasing wetland areas and availability of nutrients will result in increased invertebrate abundance, while the potential for drainage and terrestrialization of larger lakes may reduce fish abundance and overwintering habitat. These changes will likely have positive implications for insectivores and negative implications for piscivorous waterfowl.
Davidson, E. A.; Suddick, E. C.
Producing food, transportation, and energy for seven billion people has led to huge increases in use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuels, resulting in large releases of N as air and water pollution. In its numerous chemical forms, N plays a critical role in all aspects of climate change, including mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. Here we report on a multi-authored, interdisciplinary technical report on climate-nitrogen interactions submitted to the US National Climate Assessment as part of a Research Coordination Network activity. Management of the N cycle not only affects emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitrogen oxides (NOX), but also impacts carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), through effects on carbon cycling processes in forests and soils and the effects on atmospheric reactions of ozone (O3) and CH4. While some of these direct and indirect N effects have a short-term cooling effect, the warming effects of N2O dominate at long time scales. The challenges of mitigating N2O emissions are substantially different from those for CO2 and CH4, because N is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. On one hand, improved agricultural nutrient management can confer some adaptive capacity of crops to climatic variability, but, on the other hand, increased climatic variability will render the task more difficult to manage nutrients for the optimization of crop productivity while minimizing N losses to the environment. Higher air temperatures will result in a "climate penalty" for air quality mitigation efforts, because larger NOX emissions reductions will be needed to achieve the same reductions of O3 pollution under higher temperatures, thus imposing further challenges to avoid harmful impacts on human health and crop productivity. Changes in river discharge, due to summer drought and to extreme precipitation events, will affect the transport of N from agricultural fields to
Assis, J.; Berecibar, E.; Claro, B.; Alberto, F.; Reed, D.; Raimondi, P.; Serrão, E. A.
Global climate change is likely to constrain low latitude range edges across many taxa and habitats. Such is the case for NE Atlantic marine macroalgal forests, important ecosystems whose main structuring species is the annual kelp Saccorhiza polyschides. We coupled ecological niche modelling with simulations of potential dispersal and delayed development stages to infer the major forces shaping range edges and to predict their dynamics. Models indicated that the southern limit is set by high winter temperatures above the physiological tolerance of overwintering microscopic stages and reduced upwelling during recruitment. The best range predictions were achieved assuming low spatial dispersal (5 km) and delayed stages up to two years (temporal dispersal). Reconstructing distributions through time indicated losses of ~30% from 1986 to 2014, restricting S. polyschides to upwelling regions at the southern edge. Future predictions further restrict populations to a unique refugium in northwestern Iberia. Losses were dependent on the emissions scenario, with the most drastic one shifting ~38% of the current distribution by 2100. Such distributional changes might not be rescued by dispersal in space or time (as shown for the recent past) and are expected to drive major biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem functioning. PMID:28276501
Caldeira, Maria C; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S; Pinto, Joaquim G; Bugalho, Miguel N; Werner, Christiane
Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.
Messelhäusser, Ute; Thärigen, Diana; Fella, Christiane; Schreiner, Hermann; Busch, Ulrich; Höller, Christiane
Thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. rank among the most important foodborne pathogens in Germany. Therefore a necessity for rapid and routinely useable detection methods exists also in the area of food microbiology. A reliable, cultura qualitative, but also quantitative detection of thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. pose a challenge, at least concerning special food matrices, especially because in the context of official food control the cultural detection of thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. is needed. This was the reason, why different cultural detection methods, beside the standard procedure of ISO 10272:2006, in combination with molecular and immunological screening methods were tested at the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority (LGL) during the last years for the use in routine diagnostic using different food matrices of animal and plant origin. The results of the comparative studies showed clearly that no enrichment broth tested gave completely satisfactory results for an only culture-based detection the combination with a screening method is therefore recommended for a rapid and reliable detection. But in this case the user should take into account that the sensitivity of such molecular and immunological methods is normally so high that in some cases, depending on the food matrix and processing step, the isolation of the pathogen would not be possible in samples, which were positive in the screening methods.
Jonathan A Hare
Full Text Available We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65% to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.
Swiderska, Krystyna; Reid, Hannah; Song, Yiching; Li, Jingsong; Mutta, Doris; Ongugo, Paul; Pakia, Mohamed; Oros, Rolando; Barriga, Sandra
Paper prepared for the UNU-IAS workshop on Indigenous Peoples, Marginalised Populations and Climate Change: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Traditional Knowledge, Mexico, July 2011. Indigenous peoples and local communities often live in harsh natural environments, and have had to cope with extreme weather and adapt to environmental change for centuries in order to survive. They have done this using long standing traditions and practices – or traditional knowledge (TK) – relating to adaptive ecosystem management and sustainable use of natural resources. The three case studies presented provide evidence of the crucial role of traditional crop varieties, knowledge and practices in enabling adaption to changes in climate. The question is whether the climatic changes observed in these cases are human induced climate change or just natural changes. The findings show that indigenous farmers in SW China, coastal Kenya and the Bolivian Andes are already severely impacted by changes in climate, including drought, with serious consequences for crop production and food security. The scale of the changes, and the fact that they have occurred quite recently (in the last 10 or 20 years), suggests that they may be the result of human induced climate change.
Caldeira, Maria; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa; Pinto, Joaquim; Bugalho, Miguel; Werner, Christiane
). Caldeira M.C., Lecomte X., David T.S., Pinto J.G., Bugalho M.N. & Werner C. (2015). Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates. Scientific Reports, 5, 15110.
Börjesson, Stefan; Ny, Sofia; Egervärn, Maria; Bergström, Jakob; Rosengren, Åsa; Englund, Stina; Löfmark, Sonja; Byfors, Sara
Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)- and plasmid-encoded ampC (pAmpC)-producing Enterobacteriaceae might spread from farm animals to humans through food. However, most studies have been limited in number of isolates tested and areas studied. We examined genetic relatedness of 716 isolates from 4,854 samples collected from humans, farm animals, and foods in Sweden to determine whether foods and farm animals might act as reservoirs and dissemination routes for ESBL/pAmpC-producing Escherichia coli. Results showed that clonal spread to humans appears unlikely. However, we found limited dissemination of genes encoding ESBL/pAmpC and plasmids carrying these genes from foods and farm animals to healthy humans and patients. Poultry and chicken meat might be a reservoir and dissemination route to humans. Although we found no evidence of clonal spread of ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli from farm animals or foods to humans, ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli with identical genes and plasmids were present in farm animals, foods, and humans.
Smith, Craig R.; Mincks, Sarah; DeMaster, David J.
The Antarctic continental shelf is large, deep (500-1000 m), and characterized by extreme seasonality in sea-ice cover and primary production. Intense seasonality and short pelagic foodwebs on the Antarctic shelf may favor strong bentho-pelagic coupling, whereas unusual water depth combined with complex topography and circulation could cause such coupling to be weak. Here, we address six questions regarding the nature and strength of coupling between benthic and water-column processes on the continental shelf surrounding Antarctica. We find that water-column production is transmitted to the shelf floor in intense pulses of particulate organic matter, although these pulses are often difficult to correlate with local phytoplankton blooms or sea-ice conditions. On regional scales, benthic habitat variability resulting from substrate type, current regime, and iceberg scour often may obscure the imprint of water-column productivity on the seafloor. However, within a single habitat type, i.e. the muddy sediments that characterize much of the deep Antarctic shelf, macrobenthic biomass appears to be correlated with regional primary production and sea-ice duration. Over annual time-scales, many benthic ecological processes were initially expected to vary in phase with the extraordinary boom/bust cycle of production in the water column. However, numerous processes, including sediment respiration, deposit feeding, larval development, and recruitment, often are poorly coupled to the summer bloom season. Several integrative, time-series studies on the Antarctic shelf suggest that this lack of phasing may result in part from the accumulation of a persistent sediment food bank that buffers the benthic ecosystem from the seasonal variability of the water column. As a consequence, a variety of benthic parameters (e.g., sediment respiration, inventories of labile organic matter, macrobenthic biomass) may act as "low-pass" filters, responding to longer-term (e.g., inter
Leeuwis, C.; Hall, A.; Weperen, van W.; Preissing, J.
In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this study defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This report is a shortened version of the final study report, produced on request of FAO. The p
Full Text Available By using a limited-area model (LAM in combination with the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA approach, wind energy resources in the contiguous United States (CONUS were downscaled from IPCC CCSM3 global model projections for both current and future climate conditions. An assessment of climate change impacts on wind energy resources in the CONUS region was then conducted. Based on the downscaling results, when projecting into future climate under IPCC’s A1B scenario, the average annual wind speed experiences an overall shift across the CONUS region. From the current climate to the 2040s, the average annual wind speed is expected to increase from 0.1 to 0.2 m s−1 over the Great Plains, Northern Great Lakes Region, and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rocky Mountains. When projecting into the 2090s from current climate, there is an overall increase in the Great Plains Region and Southwestern United States located southwest of the Rockies with a mean wind speed increase between 0 and 0.1 m s−1, while, the Northern Great Lakes Region experiences an even greater increase from current climate to 2090s than over the first few decades with an increase of mean wind speed from 0.1 to 0.4 m s−1.
Pérez-Rodríguez, F.; Zwietering, M.H.
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is proposed as a means of understanding microbial risk in foods from a Public Health perspective. One variant of the CLT states that as the number of random variables, each with a finite mean and variance, increases (¿8), the distribution of the sum (or mean) of those
Liu, Qiang; McVicar, Tim R.
SummaryPotential evaporation (Ep) reflects the combined effects of four key meteorological variables: (i) net radiation (Rn); (ii) wind speed (u); (iii) relative humidity (rh); and (iv) air temperature (Ta). Here, attribution analysis was conducted to investigate the contribution of the four key meteorological variables to changes of a physically-based Ep in a large water-limited basin, the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. Then the influences of these changes, and precipitation (P) changes, on streamflow (Q) were explored analytically. Results show that: (i) Ep presented different temporal trends for the water yielding region (WYR) and water consuming region (WCR) with a overall changes of +0.16 mm a-2 and -0.66 mm a-2 during 1961-2010, respectively; (ii) trend analysis of Ep and the four key meteorological variables at the basin scale showed that increasing trend in Ta increased Ep during 1961-2010, while changes in Rn and u increased the 1961-1979 Ep rate and reduced it during 1980-1994 and 1995-2010; (iii) revealed by attribution analysis, Ep increased by changes in Ta and rh and reduced by changes of Rn and u in both WYR and WCR, in all, Ep rate presented positive and negative trends in the WYR and WCR, respectively; (iv) the changes of Q and actual evaporation (E) are much more sensitive to changes in P than the changes in Ep; and (v) of critical importance for water resource management of the YRB changes in Q are mainly attributed to changes in catchment-specific parameter (n) and P, while Ep reduced Q in WYR and increased Q in WCR. These results indicated that the causes of trend of Ep rates, influenced by combined effects of radiative and aerodynamic variables should be explicitly explained using fully physically based Ep formulations. Additionally, in the water-limited YRB, changes of Q are primarily controlled by the changes in catchment conditions, and secondarily by hydroclimatic factors where the available water (P) rather than energy condition (Ep) is
Full Text Available Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare. Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security.
Kranendonk, R.P.; Hoechstetter, S.; Castillo, A.; Smeets, P.J.A.M.; Mansfeld, van M.J.M.; Eetgerink, F.; Cserhaty, M.; Kalas, N.; Schneider, U.
This Pathfinder project develops a focused EU Community of Practice (CoP) on development of Agro food-clusters that focuses on innovation of high tech, large scale, industrialized and sustainable agriculture and food production for Metropoles. The Metropolitan food clusters significantly contribute
Galbraith-Emami, S; Lobstein, T
In response to increasing evidence that advertising of foods and beverages affects children's food choices and food intake, several national governments and many of the world's larger food and beverage manufacturers have acted to restrict the marketing of their products to children or to advertise only 'better for you' products or 'healthier dietary choices' to children. Independent assessment of the impact of these pledges has been difficult due to the different criteria being used in regulatory and self-regulatory regimes. In this paper, we undertook a systematic review to examine the data available on levels of exposure of children to the advertising of less healthy foods since the introduction of the statutory and voluntary codes. The results indicate a sharp division in the evidence, with scientific, peer-reviewed papers showing that high levels of such advertising of less healthy foods continue to be found in several different countries worldwide. In contrast, the evidence provided in industry-sponsored reports indicates a remarkably high adherence to voluntary codes. We conclude that adherence to voluntary codes may not sufficiently reduce the advertising of foods which undermine healthy diets, or reduce children's exposure to this advertising.
Audsley, Eric; Angus, Andrew; Chatterton, Julia C.; Graves, Anil R.; Morris, Joe; Murphy-Bokern,Donal; Pearn, Kerry R.; Daniel L Sandars; Williams, Adrian G.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY •1. Key findingsThis study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It a...
Muluneh Bitew, Alemayehu; Stroosnijder, Leo; keesstra, Saskia
Studies on climate impacts and related adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming important to counteract the negative effects of climate change. In Ethiopia, climate change is likely to affect crop yields negatively. However, quantitative evidence is lacking about the ability of farm level adaptation options to offset negative impacts on food security. The MarkSimGCM weather generator was used to generate projected daily rainfall and temperature data originally taken from ECHAM5 general circulation model and ensemble mean of six models under A2 (high) and B1 (low) emission scenarios. We validated the FAO AquaCrop model and subsequently used it to predict maize yields and explore three adaptations options. Increasing plant density has the least effect on maize yield so that the density that is currently used by 'good' farmers (30,000) is recommended. The optimum level of supplemental irrigation (SI), in combination with this plant density, is application of SI when the percentage of soil water depletion reached 75% of the maximum available water in the root zone. In the future, dry spells during the Belg season increase and this has a negative effect on maize production. The predicted lower maize production due to the changing rainfall is only partly compensated by the expected increase in CO2 concentration. The shifting of sowing period of maize from the current Belg season (mostly April or May) to the first month of Kiremt season (June) can offset the predicted yield reduction caused by climate change. SI has a marginal effect in good rainfall years but using 94-111 mm of SI can avoid total crop failure in drought years. Hence, SI is an interesting option to improve food security in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia. Key words: Adaptation; Climate change; Central Rift Valley; Dry spell; Supplemental irrigation.
Critical taper wedge theory is the gold standard by which climate control of convergent orogenic belts is inferred. The theory predicts (and models reproduce) that an orogenic belt narrows if erosion increases in erosion in the face of a constant tectonic influx. Numerous papers now argue on the basis of thermochronologic data that the Chugach/ St. Elias Range (CSE) of southern Alaska narrowed as a direct response to Quaternary climate change because glaciers dominated erosion of the orogenic belt. The CSE formed in response to collision of a microplate with North America and is notable because glacial erosion has dominated the CSE for the past 5 to 6 Ma. An increase in sediment accumulation rates in the foreland basin over that time suggests that glacial erosion become more efficient. If correct, it is possible that glacial erosion outpaced rock influx thereby inducing a climatically controlled narrowing of the orogenic wedge during the Quaternary. Growth strata preserved within the wedge provide a test of that interpretation because they demonstrate the spatial and temporal pattern of deformation during the Pliocene to Quaternary climate transition. A thrust front established between 6 and 5 Ma jumped towards the foreland by 30 and 15 km at 1.8 and 0.25 Ma, respectively. Distributed deformation within the thrust belt accompanied the thrust front relocations. Continuous exhumation recorded by low-temperature thermochronometers occurred contemporaneously with the shortening, parallel the structural not the topographic grain, and ages become younger towards the foreland as well. Interpreted in terms of critical wedge theory, continuous distributed deformation reflects a sub-critical wedge taper resulting from the combined effects of persistent exhumation and incremental accretion and orogenic widening via thrust front jumps into the undeformed foreland. Taper angle varies according to published cross-sections and ranges from 3 to 9 degrees. If the wedge oscillated
Lorenz, Ralph D
The 'two-box model' of planetary climate is discussed. This model has been used to demonstrate consistency of the equator-pole temperature gradient on Earth, Mars and Titan with what would be predicted from a principle of maximum entropy production (MEP). While useful for exposition and for generating first-order estimates of planetary heat transports, it has too low a resolution to investigate climate systems with strong feedbacks. A two-box MEP model agrees well with the observed day : night temperature contrast observed on the extrasolar planet HD 189733b.
Model investigations of the potential effect of climate changes on the world food supply; Modellhafte Ueberlegungen zu potentiellen Auswirkungen der sich veraendernden Klimabedingungen auf die Weltversorgungslage mit Nahrungsmitteln
Schumacher, H. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Agrarpolitik, Marktforschung und Wirtschaftssoziologie
This investigation aims to contribute towards assessing the implications of possible climate changes on the world food situation. First of all, the causes and implications of climate change are analyzed and printed out. Then, suitable models for describing climate change are investigated and described. Furthermore, suitable mathematical yield models for calculating the impact of climate changes on plant growth are analyzed and described. Finally, the national economy`s gain and loss in the farming sector is established within the framework of a welfare analysis. (orig./KW) [Deutsch] Zielsetzung dieser Untersuchung ist es, einen Beitrag zur Abschaetzung der Auswirkungen moeglicher Klimaveraenderungen auf die Weltversorgungslage mit Nahrungsmitteln zu leisten. Hierzu werden zunaechst die Ursachen und Auswirkungen der Klimaveraenderung analysiert und aufgezeigt werden. Des weiteren werden geeignete Modelle zur Beschreibung der Klimaveraenderung untersucht und vorgestellt werden. Ausserdem werden die zur Berechnung klimatischer Veraenderungen in ihrer Wirkung auf das Pflanzenwachstum geeigneten mathematischen Ertragsmodelle analysiert und beschrieben. Abschliessend wird im Rahmen einer Wohlfahrtsanalyse der volkswirtschaftliche Gewinn und Verlust fuer den landwirtschaftlichen Sektor aufgezeigt. (orig./KW)
Hagen-Plantinga, E A; Leistra, M H G; Sinke, J D; Vroom, M W; Savelkoul, H F J; Hendriks, W H
Conflicting results have been reported in the literature in terms of the usefulness of serological testing for IgG against food allergens in dogs with cutaneous adverse food reaction (CAFR). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the suitability of a commercially available IgG ELISA for identifying food allergens in dogs, by challenging dogs with specific food ingredients, selected on the basis of IgG reactivity in serum samples. A total of 24 adult dogs with CAFR were enrolled into the study and 16 healthy dogs were included as a control group. Blood samples were obtained for measurement of specific IgG antibodies against 39 commonly used pet food ingredients by ELISA. Participating owners were surveyed to obtain information on their pet's dietary history. Eleven healthy control dogs and 12 dogs with CAFR were subsequently challenged in a blinded cross-over design experiment with both positive and negative food ingredients, selected on the basis of the ELISA test results. There was substantial individual variation in ELISA test results to the various food allergens, but no significant difference in IgG reactivity comparing the CAFR and control groups. None of the control dogs developed any clinical signs of an allergic reaction during the dietary challenge study. In the CAFR group, six of 12 dogs developed clinical signs after the negative challenge, and two of nine dogs developed clinical signs after the positive challenge. It was concluded that the ELISA test for dietary allergen-specific IgG is of limited value in the management of dogs with CAFR.
Coelho, Jennifer S; Polivy, Janet; Herman, C Peter; Pliner, Patricia
The present study investigated the effects of exposure to a food cue on the self-reported importance of dieting in those with low, medium, and high levels of dietary restraint. The results indicated that exposure to a food cue bolstered dieting-related goals in those who were low in dietary restraint but had no effect on the importance of dieting-related goals for those with medium or high levels of dietary restraint. The results demonstrate that exposure to temptations may differentially affect self-control processes depending on an individuals' level of dietary restraint.
Berardy, Andrew; Chester, Mikhail V.
Interdependent systems providing water and energy services are necessary for agriculture. Climate change and increased resource demands are expected to cause frequent and severe strains on these systems. Arizona is especially vulnerable to such strains due to its hot and arid climate. However, its climate enables year-round agricultural production, allowing Arizona to supply most of the country’s winter lettuce and vegetables. In addition to Phoenix and Tucson, cities including El Paso, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Diego rely on Arizona for several types of agricultural products such as animal feed and livestock, meaning that disruptions to Arizona’s agriculture also disrupt food supply chains to at least six major cities. Arizona’s predominately irrigated agriculture relies on water imported through an energy intensive process from water-stressed regions. Most irrigation in Arizona is electricity powered, so failures in energy or water systems can cascade to the food system, creating a food-energy-water (FEW) nexus of vulnerability. We construct a dynamic simulation model of the FEW nexus in Arizona to assess the potential impacts of increasing temperatures and disruptions to energy and water supplies on crop irrigation requirements, on-farm energy use, and yield. We use this model to identify critical points of intersection between energy, water, and agricultural systems and quantify expected increases in resource use and yield loss. Our model is based on threshold temperatures of crops, USDA and US Geological Survey data, Arizona crop budgets, and region-specific literature. We predict that temperature increase above the baseline could decrease yields by up to 12.2% per 1 °C for major Arizona crops and require increased irrigation of about 2.6% per 1 °C. Response to drought varies widely based on crop and phenophase, so we estimate irrigation interruption effects through scenario analysis. We provide an overview of potential adaptation measures
Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Hall, Courtney T.; Brumfield, Marisa D; Dugas, Jason; Jones, William R.
Within the context of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the ecological implications of changes in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Along subtropical coasts, less frequent and warmer freeze events are expected to permit freeze-sensitive mangrove forests to expand poleward and displace freeze-tolerant salt marshes. Here, our aim was to better understand the drivers of poleward mangrove migration by quantifying spatiotemporal patterns in mangrove range expansion and contraction across land-ocean temperature gradients. Our work was conducted in a freeze-sensitive mangrove-marsh transition zone that spans a land-ocean temperature gradient in one of the world's most wetland-rich regions (Mississippi River Deltaic Plain; Louisiana, USA). We used historical air temperature data (1893-2014), alternative future climate scenarios, and coastal wetland coverage data (1978-2011) to investigate spatiotemporal fluctuations and climate-wetland linkages. Our analyses indicate that changes in mangrove coverage have been controlled primarily by extreme freeze events (i.e., air temperatures below a threshold zone of -6.3 to -7.6 °C). We expect that in the past 121 years, mangrove range expansion and contraction has occurred across land-ocean temperature gradients. Mangrove resistance, resilience, and dominance were all highest in areas closer to the ocean where temperature extremes were buffered by large expanses of water and saturated soil. Under climate change, these areas will likely serve as local hotspots for mangrove dispersal, growth, range expansion, and displacement of salt marsh. Collectively, our results show that the frequency and intensity of freeze events across land-ocean temperature gradients greatly influences spatiotemporal patterns of range expansion and contraction of freeze-sensitive mangroves. We expect that, along subtropical coasts, similar processes govern the distribution and abundance of other freeze
Thorup, Kasper; Sunde, Peter; Jacobsen, Lars B.
of seasonally changing land cover (mostly farmland) within a 1-km radius around nests as well as temperatures before and during the breeding season. Experimental food supplementation to breeding pairs increased the proportion of eggs that resulted in fledged young from 27 to 79%, supporting the hypothesis...
Robertson, Robert E.
The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) is a federally funded program providing supplemental food and nutrition services to lower-income pregnant, breastfeeding, and postpartum women and also serves infants and children up to age 5 who are at nutritional risk. Included in these services are nutrition…
Song, Y.; Jain, A. K.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.
Climate change presents potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of climate change effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected climate change trends and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to climate change and adaptive management practices and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate crop adaptation to climate change. We apply the process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of climate change on the production of row crops (corn, soybean, rice, cotton, sugarcane and wheat) at global and regional scales. The results are compared to the corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of crop adaptation and adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do model differences in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices over the 21st century. ISAM and CLM4.5 have been included in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Both models consider the effects of temperature, light and soil water and nitrogen availability on crop photosynthesis and temperature control on crop phenology and carbon allocation. ISAM also considers the adaptation of crop phenology, carbon allocation and structures growth to drought, light stress and N stress. The effects of model differences on projected crop production are evaluated by performing the following experiments. Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005) and projected atmospheric forcing data (2006-2100) under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different
This article focuses on the pastoral practices of the Sakha people in eastern Siberia to explore the impact of climate change on human livelihood in permafrost regions. Sakha use grassland resources in river terraces and the alaas thermokarst landscape for cattle-horse husbandry. Although they practice a different form of subsistence than other indigenous arctic peoples, such as hunter - gatherers or reindeer herders, the adaptation of Sakha has been relatively resilient in the past 600-800 years. Recent climate change, however, could change this situation. According to hydrologists, increased precipitation is now observed in eastern Siberia, which has resulted in the increase of permafrost thawing, causing forests to die. Moreover, local meteorologists report an increase of flooding in local rivers. How do these changes affect the local pastoral adaptation? While describing recent uses of grassland resource by local people, and their perception of climate change through anthropological field research, I investigated the subtle characteristics of human-environment interactions in pastoral adaptation, in order to identify the limits of adaptation in the face of climate change.
Mossel, D A; Struijk, C B
The 93/43 European Union directive assigns to the food and catering industries the main responsibility for an integrated safety and quality assurance strategy in the food chain. Relying on hazard analysis, followed by design and adoption of control of all critical points and practices ("HACCP"). Hiatus-free compliance with such HACCP-based Codes of Good Practices is to be assessed by monitoring, recording results on process performance charts and gauging such data against experimentally established, attainable and maintainable references ranges ("standards"). Marker microorganisms are a major analytical tool for validating compliance in the sense of the EU directive. They should be expertly chosen amongst microbes usually present in food so that their, whose presence in quantities exceeding predetermined levels point to a lack of microbiological integrity of a food product. This may encompass (i) the potential presence of taxonomically, physiologically and ecologically related pathogens, markers are called index organisms; or else (ii) a lack of process integrity; in this case, markers are termed indicator organisms. The classical index organism was E. coli, introduced in the 1980's to monitor drinking water supplies. It is still used as an appropriate marker to assess the bacteriological safety of raw foods. In the 1920's the coli-aerogenes ("coliform") group was adopted as an indicator to validate the adequate processing, i.e. pasteurization of dairy products. Since the 1950's the entire Enterobacteriaceae taxon is preferred for the latter purpose because it is better defined in determinative sense and includes more organisms of significance. In some food and water supplies, processed for safety, more vigorous or more resistant organisms than the Gram-negative rods are reliable supplementary markers. These include Enterococcus spp., spores of the Clostridium genus, and bacteriophages of E. coli and Bacteroides fragilis mimicking the fate of enteric viruses under
Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Ranta, Esa; Pietiäinen, Hannu; Byholm, Patrik; Saurola, Pertti; Valkama, Jari; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Korpimäki, Erkki
The ongoing climate change has improved our understanding of how climate affects the reproduction of animals. However, the interaction between food availability and climate on breeding has rarely been examined. While it has been shown that breeding of boreal birds of prey is first and foremost determined by prey abundance, little information exists on how climatic conditions influence this relationship. We studied the joint effects of main prey abundance and ambient weather on timing of breeding and reproductive success of two smaller (pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum and Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus) and two larger (tawny owl Strix aluco and Ural owl Strix uralensis) avian predator species using long-term nation-wide datasets during 1973-2004. We found no temporal trend either in vole abundance or in hatching date and brood size of any studied owl species. In the larger species, increasing late winter or early spring temperature advanced breeding at least as much as did high autumn abundance of prey (voles). Furthermore, increasing snow depth delayed breeding of the largest species (Ural owl), presumably by reducing the availability of voles. Brood size was strongly determined by spring vole abundance in all four owl species. These results show that climate directly affects the breeding performance of vole-eating boreal avian predators much more than previously thought. According to earlier studies, small-sized species should advance their breeding more than larger species in response to increasing temperature. However, we found an opposite pattern, with larger species being more sensitive to temperature. We argue that this pattern is caused by a difference in the breeding tactics of larger mostly capital breeding and smaller mostly income breeding owl species.
Deque, M. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Jones, R.G.; Hassell, D.C. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Devon (United Kingdom); Wild, M.; Vidale, P.L. [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich (Switzerland); Giorgi, F.; Kucharski, F. [Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Christensen, J.H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark); Rockel, B. [Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Geesthacht (Germany); Jacob, D. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Kjellstroem, E. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Castro, M. de. [Universidad de Castilla La Mancha, Dept. de Ciencias Ambientales, Toledo (Spain); Hurk, B. van den [KNMI, Postbus 201, AE De Bilt (Netherlands)
Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071-2100 and the 1961-1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs - in particular in terms of precipitation - is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs. (orig.)
F. J. Radermacher
Full Text Available The international climate policy is in trouble. CO2 emissions are rising instead of shrinking. The 2025 climate summit in Paris should lead to a global agreement, but what should be its design? In an earlier paper in Cadmus on the issue, the author outlined a contract formula based on the so-called ‘Copenhagen Accord’ that is based on a dynamic cap and an intelligent burden sharing between politics and the private sector. The private sector was brought into the deal via the idea of a voluntary climate neutrality of private emissions culminating in a ‘Global Neutral’ promoted by the United Nations. All this was based on a global cap-and-trade system. For a number of reasons, it may be that a global cap-and-trade system cannot or will not be established. States may use other instruments to fulfil their promises. The present paper elaborates that even under such conditions, the basic proposal can still be implemented. This may prove useful for the Paris negotiations.
Weaver, Daniel M.; Coghlan Jr., Stephen M.; Zydlewski, Joseph
Resource flows from adjacent ecosystems are critical in maintaining structure and function of freshwater food webs. Migrating sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) deliver a pulsed marine-derived nutrient subsidy to rivers in spring when the metabolic demand of producers and consumers are increasing. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of these nutrient subsidies are not well characterized. We used sea lamprey carcass additions in a small stream to examine changes in nutrients, primary productivity, and nutrient assimilation among consumers. Algal biomass increased 57%–71% immediately adjacent to carcasses; however, broader spatial changes from multiple-site carcass addition may have been influenced by canopy cover. We detected assimilation of nutrients (via δ13C and δ15N) among several macroinvertebrate families including Heptageniidae, Hydropsychidae, and Perlidae. Our research suggests that subsidies may evoke localized patch-scale effects on food webs, and the pathways of assimilation in streams are likely coupled to adjacent terrestrial systems. This research underscores the importance of connectivity in streams, which may influence sea lamprey spawning and elicit varying food web responses from carcass subsidies due to fine-scale habitat variables.
Fraser, E.D.G. [Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT (United Kingdom)
This paper builds on existing theory and proposes a framework to identify vulnerability to climate change in food systems by examining historic cases where common environmental problems caused famine. Cases presented are (1) Ireland's Potato Famine, (2) El Nino induced famines during the Colonial period, and (3) Ethiopia between 1965 and 1997. Three factors stand out as common in each. Prior to each famine: (1) there were very few ways that people could obtain a living in the worst affected regions; (2) livelihoods in famine stricken communities came to depend on highly specialized agro-ecosystems that were sensitive to environmental change; (3) institutions failed to provide adequate safety nets to protect livelihoods from failure. This analysis suggests that vulnerability to climate change in food systems can be assessed by looking at agro-ecosystems, livelihoods and institutions. Local conditions, however, mean that ways of measuring these three factors will vary from place to place. As a result, direct comparisons are difficult. By conceptualizing these three variables as the axes of a three dimensional 'vulnerability' space, it is possible to compare regions and look at trends over time by studying the paths through this 'space' as traced by changes at the agro-ecosystem, livelihood, and institutional scale.
Climate change will affect temperature extremes and averages, and hyposaline conditions in coastal areas due to extreme precipitation events and oceanic pH. How climate change will push species close to, or beyond, their physiological tolerance limits as well as change the limits of their biogeographic ranges can probably be investigated best in species that have already responded to climate change and whose distribution ranges are currently in flux. Blue mussels provide such a study system, with the invading warm-adapted Mediterranean Mytilus galloprovincialis having replaced the native more cold-adapted Mytilus trossulus from the southern part of its range in southern California over the past century, possibly due to climate change. However, freshwater input may prevent the latter species from expanding further north. We used a proteomics approach to characterize the responses of the two congeners to acute heat stress, chronic thermal acclimation, and hyposaline stress. In addition, we investigated the proteomic changes in response to decreasing seawater pH in another bivalve, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica. The results suggest that reactive oxygen species (ROS) are a common costressor during environmental stress, including oceanic acidification, and possibly cause modifications of cytoskeletal elements. All stressors disrupted protein homeostasis, indicated by the induction of molecular chaperones and, in the case of acute heat stress, proteasome isoforms, possibly due both to protein denaturation directly by the stressor and to the production of ROS. Acute stress by heat and hyposalinity changed several small G-proteins implicated in cytoskeletal modifications and vesicular transport, respectively. Changes in abundance of proteins involved in energy metabolism and ROS scavenging further suggest a possible trade-off during acute and chronic stress from heat and cold between ROS-generating NADH-producing pathways and ROS-scavenging NADPH
C. L. Tague
Full Text Available Hydrologic models are one of the core tools used to project how water resources may change under a warming climate. These models are typically applied over a range of scales, from headwater streams to higher order rivers, and for a variety of purposes, such as evaluating changes to aquatic habitat or reservoir operation. Most hydrologic models require streamflow data to calibrate subsurface drainage parameters. In many cases, long-term gage records may not be available for calibration, particularly when assessments are focused on low order stream reaches. Consequently, hydrologic modeling of climate change impacts is often performed in the absence of sufficient data to fully parameterize these hydrologic models. In this paper, we assess a geologic-based strategy for assigning drainage parameters. We examine the performance of this modeling strategy for the McKenzie River watershed in the US Oregon Cascades, a region where previous work has demonstrated sharp contrasts in hydrology based primarily on geological differences between the High and Western Cascades. Based on calibration and verification using existing streamflow data, we demonstrate that: (1 a set of streams ranging from 1st to 3rd order within the Western Cascade geologic region can share the same drainage parameter set, and (2 streams from the High Cascade geologic region, however, require a distinctive parameter set. Further, we show that a watershed comprised of a mixture of High and Western Cascade geology can be modeled without additional calibration by transferring parameters from these distinctive High and Western Cascade end-member parameter sets. Using this geologically-based parameter transfer scheme, our model predictions for all watersheds capture dominant historic streamflow patterns, and are sufficiently accurate to resolve geo-climatic differences in how these different watersheds are likely to respond to simple warming scenarios.
C. L. Tague
Full Text Available Hydrologic models are one of the core tools used to project how water resources may change under a warming climate. These models are typically applied over a range of scales, from headwater streams to higher order rivers, and for a variety of purposes, such as evaluating changes to aquatic habitat or reservoir operation. Most hydrologic models require streamflow data to calibrate subsurface drainage parameters. In many cases, long-term gage records may not be available for calibration, particularly when assessments are focused on low-order stream reaches. Consequently, hydrologic modeling of climate change impacts is often performed in the absence of sufficient data to fully parameterize these hydrologic models. In this paper, we assess a geologic-based strategy for assigning drainage parameters. We examine the performance of this modeling strategy for the McKenzie River watershed in the US Oregon Cascades, a region where previous work has demonstrated sharp contrasts in hydrology based primarily on geological differences between the High and Western Cascades. Based on calibration and verification using existing streamflow data, we demonstrate that: (1 a set of streams ranging from 1st to 3rd order within the Western Cascade geologic region can share the same drainage parameter set, while (2 streams from the High Cascade geologic region require a different parameter set. Further, we show that a watershed comprised of a mixture of High and Western Cascade geologies can be modeled without additional calibration by transferring parameters from these distinctive High and Western Cascade end-member parameter sets. More generally, we show that by defining a set of end-member parameters that reflect different geologic classes, we can more efficiently apply a hydrologic model over a geologically complex landscape and resolve geo-climatic differences in how different watersheds are likely to respond to simple warming scenarios.
Full Text Available Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Currently, two such levels are discussed in the context of the international climate negotiations as long-term global temperature goals: a below 2 °C and a 1.5 °C limit in global-mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive assessment of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and several hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 % longer to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in
Full Text Available Predictive Microbiology (PM deals with the mathematical modeling of microorganisms in foods for different applications (challenge test, evaluation of microbiological shelf life, prediction of the microbiological hazards connected with foods, etc.. An interesting and important part of PM focuses on the use of primary functions to fit data of death kinetics of spoilage, pathogenic, and useful microorganisms following thermal or non-conventional treatments and can also be used to model survivors throughout storage. The main topic of this review is a focus on the most important death models (negative Gompertz, log-linear, shoulder/tail, Weibull, Weibull+tail, re-parameterized Weibull, biphasic approach, etc. to pinpoint the benefits and the limits of each model; in addition, the last section addresses the most important tools for the use of death kinetics and predictive microbiology in a user-friendly way.
Bartholomaeus, Andrew; Parrott, Wayne; Bondy, Genevieve; Walker, Kate
There is disagreement internationally across major regulatory jurisdictions on the relevance and utility of whole food (WF) toxicity studies on GM crops, with no harmonization of data or regulatory requirements. The scientific value, and therefore animal ethics, of WF studies on GM crops is a matter addressable from the wealth of data available on commercialized GM crops and WF studies on irradiated foods. We reviewed available GM crop WF studies and considered the extent to which they add to the information from agronomic and compositional analyses. No WF toxicity study was identified that convincingly demonstrated toxicological concern or that called into question the adequacy, sufficiency, and reliability of safety assessments based on crop molecular characterization, transgene source, agronomic characteristics, and/or compositional analysis of the GM crop and its near-isogenic line. Predictions of safety based on crop genetics and compositional analyses have provided complete concordance with the results of well-conducted animal testing. However, this concordance is primarily due to the improbability of de novo generation of toxic substances in crop plants using genetic engineering practices and due to the weakness of WF toxicity studies in general. Thus, based on the comparative robustness and reliability of compositional and agronomic considerations and on the absence of any scientific basis for a significant potential for de novo generation of toxicologically significant compositional alterations as a sole result of transgene insertion, the conclusion of this review is that WF animal toxicity studies are unnecessary and scientifically unjustifiable.
Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sanchez, Gerardo; Penuelas, Josep
Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced re
Montaldo, Nicola; Corona, Roberto; Albertson, John
Mediterranean ecosystems are commonly heterogeneous savanna-like ecosystems, with contrasting plant functional types (PFT) competing for the water use. Often deforestation activities have been more intensive along the plan and alluvial river valleys, where deep soils are well suited for agricultural and grass became the primary PFT, while more natural woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) survived in the steep hillslopes and mountain areas, where soil thickness is low, i.e. less attractive for agricultural. Hence, Mediterranean regions are characterized by two main ecosystems, grassland and woodland, which for both natural and anthropogenic causes can grow in soils with also different characteristics (texture, hydraulic properties, depth), highly impacting water resources. Mediterranean regions suffer water scarcity produced in part by natural (e.g., climate variations) influences. For instance, in the Flumendosa basin water reservoir system, which plays a primary role in the water supply for much of southern Sardinia, the average annual input from stream discharge in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate. The precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed, precipitation decreased in winter months, which are crucial for reservoirs recharge through runoff. At the same time air temperature increased during the spring-summer season, when the precipitation slightly increased. The IPCC models predicts a further increase of drought in the Mediterranean region during winter, increasing the uncertainty on the future of the water resources system of these regions. Hence, there is the need to investigate the role of the PFT vegetation dynamics on the soil water budget of these ecosystems in the context of the climate change, and predict hydrologic variables for climate change scenarios
Daniel Kissling, W.; Anne Blach-Overgaard; Zwaan, Roelof E.; Philipp Wagner
To what extent deep-time dispersal limitation shapes present-day biodiversity at broad spatial scales remains elusive. Here, we compiled a continental dataset on the distributions of African lizard species in the reptile subfamily Agaminae (a relatively young, Neogene radiation of agamid lizards which ancestors colonized Africa from the Arabian peninsula) and tested to what extent historical colonization and dispersal limitation (i.e. accessibility from areas of geographic origin) can explain...
Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas
Regional climate modelling sometimes requires that the regional model be nudged towards the large-scale driving data to avoid the development of inconsistencies between them. These inconsistencies are known to produce large surface temperature and rainfall artefacts. Therefore, it is essential to maintain the synoptic circulation within the simulation domain consistent with the synoptic circulation at the domain boundaries. Nudging techniques, initially developed for data assimilation purposes, are increasingly used in regional climate modeling and offer a workaround to this issue. In this context, several questions on the "optimal" use of nudging are still open. In this study we focus on a specific question which is: What variable should we nudge? in order to maintain the consistencies between the regional model and the driving fields as much as possible. For that, a "Big Brother Experiment", where a reference atmospheric state is known, is conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Euro-Mediterranean region. A set of 22 3-month simulations is performed with different sets of nudged variables and nudging options (no nudging, indiscriminate nudging, spectral nudging) for summer and winter. The results show that nudging clearly improves the model capacity to reproduce the reference fields. However the skill scores depend on the set of variables used to nudge the regional climate simulations. Nudging the tropospheric horizontal wind is by far the key variable to nudge to simulate correctly surface temperature and wind, and rainfall. To a lesser extent, nudging tropospheric temperature also contributes to significantly improve the simulations. Indeed, nudging tropospheric wind or temperature directly impacts the simulation of the tropospheric geopotential height and thus the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. Nudging moisture improves the precipitation but the impact on the other fields (wind and temperature) is not significant. As
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for
Bourrouilh-le Jan, F.G.
Modern examples show that rhodoliths or red algal nodules are forming around the 18/sup 0/C winter isocline and that huge amounts of these red coralline algae are living and accumulating in the subtidal zones, from -60 m to sea level, of temperate seas, such as the English Channel and Rockall. In the Pacific Ocean, several high carbonate platforms, so-called uplifted atolls, show uniform, extended, and thick accumulation of rhodoliths. These accumulations have been recognized in the Solomon Islands (Rennell) and in the Loyalty Islands (Mare and Lifu, New Caledonia), but also in the Vanuatu (Vila), in the Austral Archipelago (Rurutu), where their age can be proved or estimated as middle Miocene. They are also mentioned in the literature on the Emperor Rise (northwest Pacific). On other high carbonate islands, such as Makatea (Tuamotu), red algae and rhodolith formations appear at the top of a sedimentary pile of lower Miocene coral accumulation. The same observations and perhaps the same age can be said for Nauru (central Pacific). Such a wide distribution, from the east to the west part of the Pacific Ocean and between the tropics, seems to be due to climate variations during the Miocene, more than tectonic drift due to oceanic spreading. Temperate conditions shown by this shallow platform sedimentation, just under the coral growth conditions, seem to be confirmed by isotopic studies on pelagic and benthic Foraminifera and could confirm the existence of climate variations affecting the surface water of the Pacific in an extensive area that does not consider the presence of trenches, arcs, and ridges.
Fincke, Ola M
The relative importance of intraspecific, interspecific, and seasonal causes of larval mortality were investigated for aquatic larvae of the giant damselfly Megaloprepus coerulatus in Panama. These larvae live in water-filled holes in fallen and living trees, where they and three other common odonate species are the top predators. By mid wet season, M. coerulatus larvae were found in nearly half of all tree holes that harbored odonates. Although M. coerulatus were typically, but not always, eliminated from holes inhabited by larger hetero-specifics, M. coerulatus were more likely to encounter conspecifics than other odonate species. Hole with less than 11 of water rarely contained more than a single larva. In large holes where M. coerulatus was the only odonate species present, multiple larvae coexisted at a density of one larva per 1-21 of water. There the absence of 2-4 of the 5 larval size classes, despite a continuous input of eggs, suggested that cannibalism was a common cause of mortality. The size of the final instar, which determined adult body size, was correlated positively with tree hole volume for male, but not female, larvae. Experiments showed that when two larvae were placed together in 0.4-1 holes with abundant tadpole prey, the larger larva killed the smaller one. Often the larva that was killed was not eaten. Small larvae were more tolerant of each other than were pairs of medium or large larvae. Before killing occurred, the presence of larger larvae reduced the growth of smaller individuals, relative to controls. 'Obligate' killing was density-dependent. In 3.0-1 holes with ad libitum prey, conspecific killing occurred until the larval density stabilized at one larva per 1-1.5 I, similar to the density found in large holes under field conditions, For M. coerulatus, cannibalism functions to reduce the number of potential competitors for food in addition to providing nutrition. When interactions between paired larvae in small holes were
Through analyzing the requirement of the contrast on the limit of food additives at home and aboard,this paper discusses that the basic work about contrast on the limit of food additives at home and aboard is to understand and grasp the safety system of food additives, scope and classification of food additives, code and function classification of food additives, and food classification. The main information items during contrast on the limit of food additives home and aboard are put forward and a flow chart on contrast on the limit of food additives home and aboard is established.%文章通过分析国内外食品添加剂限量指标对照的需求,阐述了了解和掌握不同国家和地区的食品添加剂安全体系、范围和类别、编码与功能分类、食品分类是对照工作开展的基础,给出了国内外食品添加剂限量指标对照的主要信息并建立了对照实施路线.
Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.
Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades, and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the transition from low-elevation, dry western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) woodlands to higher-elevation, wetter ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. We examined 12 sites in mature forests that spanned a 1300 mm yr-1 gradient in mean growing-year climate moisture index (CMIgy ), computed annually (1964 to 2013) as monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration and summed October to September. Maximum leaf area, annual aboveground productivity, and aboveground live tree biomass increased with CMIgy (r2 = 0.67-0.88, P gy (r2 = 0.53, P gy and extensive insect outbreak. Traits of stress-tolerant juniper included short stature, high wood density for cavitation resistance, and high investment in water transport relative to leaf area. Species occupying wetter areas invested more resources in height growth in response to competition for light relative to investment in hydraulic architecture. Consequently, maximum tree height, leaf area : sapwood area ratio, and stem wood density were all correlated with CMIgy . The tight coupling of forest carbon cycling and species traits with water availability suggests that warmer and drier conditions projected for the 21st century could have significant biogeochemical, ecological, and social consequences in the Pacific Northwest.
Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van
This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa
L. T. Berner
Full Text Available Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the transition from low-elevation, dry western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis woodlands to higher-elevation, wetter ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa and grand fir (Abies grandis forests. We examined 12 sites in mature forests that spanned a 1300 mm yr−1 gradient in mean growing-year climate moisture index (CMIgy , computed annually (1964 to 2013 as monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration and summed October to September. Maximum leaf area, annual aboveground productivity, and aboveground live tree biomass increased with CMIgy (r2 = 0.58–0.85, P gy (r2 = 0.65, P gy and extensive insect outbreak. Traits of stress-tolerant juniper included short stature, high wood density for cavitation resistance, and high investment in water transport relative to leaf area. Species occupying wetter areas invested more resources in height growth in response to competition for light relative to investment in hydraulic architecture. Correspondingly, maximum tree height, leaf area:sapwood area ratio, and stem wood density were all correlated with CMIgy . The tight coupling of forest carbon cycling and species traits with water availability suggests that warmer and drier conditions projected for the 21st century could have significant biogeochemical, ecological, and social consequences in the Pacific Northwest.
Ziska, Lewis H.; Bunce, James A.; Shimono, Hiroyuki; Gealy, David R.; Baker, Jeffrey T.; Newton, Paul C. D.; Reynolds, Matthew P.; Jagadish, Krishna S. V.; Zhu, Chunwu; Howden, Mark; Wilson, Lloyd T.
Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO2 to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO2 and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO2 responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change. PMID:22874755
Swidrak, Irene; Gruber, Andreas; Oberhuber, Walter
It has been frequently stressed that at distributional boundaries, like at the Alpine timberline and within dry inner Alpine environments, tree growth will be affected first by changing climate conditions. Climate in 2007 was characterized by the occurrence of exceptionally mild temperatures in spring (3.4 and 2.7 °C above long-term mean (LTM) at timberline and the valley sites, respectively) with an almost continuous drought period recorded in April and slightly warmer than average temperatures throughout summer (1.3 °C above LTM at both sites). We compared temporal dynamics of cambial activity and xylem cell development in Pinus cembra at the Alpine timberline (1950 m a.s.l.) and Pinus sylvestris at a xeric inner Alpine site (750 m a.s.l.) by repeated cellular analyses of micro-cores (n = 5 trees/site). While onset of wood formation in P. sylvestris and P. cembra differed by about two weeks (12 and 27 April, respectively), maximum daily growth rates peaked on 6 May at the valley site and on 23 June at timberline. At both sites maximum tracheid production was reached prior to occurrence of more favourable climatic conditions during summer, i.e. an increase in precipitation and temperature. Xylem formation ended on 31 August and 28 October at the xeric site and at timberline, respectively. This study demonstrates the plasticity of tree-ring formation along an altitudinal transect in response to water availability and temperature. Whether early achievement of maximum growth rates is an adaptation to cope with extreme environmental conditions prevailing at limits of tree growth needs to be analysed more closely by taking belowground carbon allocation into account.
Naylor, R.; Burney, J. A.; Postel, S.
The poorest populations in sub-Saharan Africa live in rural areas and depend on smallholder agricultural production for their livelihoods. Over 90% of all farmed area in Sub-Saharan Africa is rainfed, with crop production centering on 3-5 months of rainfall. Rapid population growth is reducing land per capita ratios, and low yields for staple crops make food security an increasingly challenging goal. Malnutrition, most noticeable among children, peaks during the dry season. Recent data on aggregate economic growth and investment in Africa hide these patterns of seasonal hunger and income disparity. Perhaps most perversely, smallholder farmers in the dry tropical regions of sub-Saharan Africa are (and will continue to be) some of the earliest and hardest hit by climate change. Our research focuses on the role distributed, small-scale irrigation can play in food security and climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa. As Asia's agricultural success has demonstrated, irrigation, when combined with the availability of inputs (fertilizer) and improved crop varieties, can enable year-round production, growth in rural incomes, and a dramatic reduction in hunger. The situation in Africa is markedly different: agroecological conditions are far more heterogeneous than in Asia and evaporation rates are relatively high; most smallholders lack access to fertilizers; and market integration is constrained by infrastructure, information, and private sector incentives. Yet from a resource perspective, national- and regional-level estimates suggest that Internal Renewable Water Resources (IRWR) are nowhere near fully exploited in Sub-Saharan Africa -- even in the Sudano-Sahel, which is considered to be one of the driest regions of the continent. Irrigation can thus be implemented on a much larger scale sustainably. We will present (a) results from controlled, experimental field studies of solar-powered drip irrigation systems in the rural Sudano-Sahel region of West Africa. We
Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.
It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is
Pérez-Rodríguez, Fernando; Zwietering, Marcel H
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is proposed as a means of understanding microbial risk in foods from a Public Health perspective. One variant of the CLT states that as the number of random variables, each with a finite mean and variance, increases (→∞), the distribution of the sum (or mean) of those variables approximates a normal distribution. On the basis of the CLT, the hypothesis introduced by this paper states that the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of the annual number of food-borne illness cases decreases as a result of a larger number of exposures (or servings) (n). Second-order Monte-Carlo analysis and classical statistics were used to support the hypothesis, based on existing risk models on Listeria monocytogenes in deli meat products focused on elderly people in the United States. Likewise, the hypothesis was tested on epidemiological data of annual incidence of salmonellosis and listeriosis in different countries (i.e. different n). Although different sources of error affected the accuracy of the results, both the Monte-Carlo analysis (in silico) and epidemiological data (in vivo), especially for salmonellosis, demonstrated that the CV of the annual number of cases decreased as n increased as stated by the CLT. Furthermore, results from this work showed that classical statistical methods can be helpful to provide reliable risk estimates based on simple and well-established statistical principles.
Full Text Available This paper argues that discussion of new food-safety governance should be framed by the realization that the dominant food system within which food-safety governance is designed to makes food safe is itself a structural and systemic sources of food un-safety, poor health and a future of food insecurity for many. For some, an appropriate policy response lies in addressing the connections between the food system and diseases such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes. For others it means subsuming food-safety governance within food security governance. For yet others, safe food implies food sovereignty governance and the primacy of a climate change resilient food system. Conventional approaches to food-safety governance are typically framed within a liability model of responsibility that has limited usefulness for addressing institutional, structural or systemic sources of harm such as those critics increasingly attribute to the dominant food system and which are not amenable to remedy by food-safety governance as it is widely understood. One cannot identify critical hazard points where risk is to be managed. These are food-system safety challenges. Because food-safety governance is so deeply political there needs to be greater attention to issues of governance rather than the more usual focus on the technologies of food-safety. Feminist political theorists have much to contribute to re-thinking food-safety governance in the context of diversity and the complexities of power. One could usefully start with the simple questions, “what food is to be kept-safe, for whom and who is the subject of food-safety governance in a post-Westphalian political economic order?” These questions can help unpack both the narrow parochialism and the misleading universalism of food-safety talk. This paper answers that neither the citizens of a particular state (or network of states nor the falsely universalizing identity of ‘the consumer’ are adequate answers
Asadu Charles Livinus Anija
Full Text Available Biodiversity and sustainable income are very necessary in ecosystem stability. The food value chain (FVC introduced in Nigeria to transform agriculture is commendable because through the system farmers receive various incentives as highly subsidized inputs from government and loans of low interest rates from designated Agricultural Banks and Central Bank. However, the system encourages specialization in the production of the reference crops but intercropping and mixed cropping systems practiced by most small-holder farmers because of its inherent advantages is de-emphasized or completely abandoned. This paper presents the results of two surveys of sole pepper and maize growers in 2015 and 2016 respectively as affected by sudden stoppage of rainfall in Nsukka area. The analyses showed that on the average > 70 % of the pepper farmers lost ≈ 65 % of their pepper fields while ≈ 57 % of the maize fields were lost. For a substitute intercropping system, plantain yield data from plantain plus moringa intercrop trials carried out in 2014 and 2015 were analyzed and projected to incorporate a food crop within inter-alleys. The mean plantain yields from the trials were 20 kg plant-1 for fresh bunch and 7 suckers stand-1. Based on a 6 m x 5 m (≈330 plants ha-1 spacing and the 2016 prices of bunches and suckers, these yields translated to a minimum net income per annum of N 1 320 000.00 (N 330 000.00 from bunches and N 990 000.00 from 6 suckers (net stand-1. Proceeds from the food crop, moringa seed and leaf extracts used as liquid fertilizer took care of the cost of other inputs and cultural practices. The inter-row spacing of 6 m allows mechanical cultivation of any food crop by the farmer. This system was considered a reliable insurance against climate change and pest insurgence and can be adopted by farmers in the entire southern Nigeria because both plantain and moringa can do very well in the subregion.
Chung, Hyung Suk; Kabir, Md Humayun; Abd El-Aty, A M; Lee, Han Sol; Rahman, Md Musfiqur; Chang, Byung-Joon; Shin, Ho-Chul; Shim, Jae-Han
A high-performance liquid chromatography-ultraviolet detection was used to estimate the disappearance rates as well as the pre-harvest residue limits of pyriofenone in oriental melon (Cucumis melo var. makuwa) grown under greenhouse conditions in two different locations (A and B) in Seongju, Republic of Korea. The identity of the compound in standard solution and representative field incurred samples was confirmed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The method was validated in terms of linearity, limits of detection and quantification, accuracy (expressed as recovery) and precision (expressed as relative standard deviation) for accurate and precise quantitation. Notably, the residual levels of field incurred samples collected over days 0-10 post-application were below the maximum residue level (0.2 mg/kg) established by the Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety. Site A showed lower residue levels and a higher decline rate than site B, which might be attributed to seasonal variation (high temperature) and increased metabolic and enzyme profiling in the mature fruits. The half-lives were similar, 4.9 and 4.3 days, at sites A and B, respectively. Using the pre-harvest residue limit, we predicted the residue amounts at 10 and 5 days before harvest, which resulted in concentrations lower than the provisional maximum residue level at harvest time.
Mortada, Sarah; Abou Najm, Majdi; Yassine, Ali; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem
Water and food security is facing increased challenges with population increase, climate and land use change, as well as resource depletion coupled with pollution and unsustainable practices. Coordinated and effective management of limited natural resources have become an imperative to meet these challenges by optimizing the usage of resources under various constraints. In this study, an optimization model is developed for optimal resource allocation towards sustainable water and food security under nutritional, socio-economic, agricultural, environmental, and natural resources constraints. The core objective of this model is to maximize the composite water-food security status by recommending an optimal water and agricultural strategy. The model balances between the healthy nutritional demand side and the constrained supply side while considering the supply chain in between. It equally ensures that the population achieves recommended nutritional guidelines and population food-preferences by quantifying an optimum agricultural and water policy through transforming optimum food demands into optimum cropping policy given the water and land footprints of each crop or agricultural product. Through this process, water and food security are optimized considering factors that include crop-food transformation (food processing), water footprints, crop yields, climate, blue and green water resources, irrigation efficiency, arable land resources, soil texture, and economic policies. The model performance regarding agricultural practices and sustainable food and water security was successfully tested and verified both at a hypothetical and pilot scale levels.
Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A
Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.
Full Text Available Pest risk maps illustrate where invasive alien arthropods, molluscs, pathogens, and weeds might become established, spread, and cause harm to natural and agricultural resources within a pest risk area. Such maps can be powerful tools to assist policymakers in matters of international trade, domestic quarantines, biosecurity surveillance, or pest-incursion responses. The International Pest Risk Mapping Workgroup (IPRMW is a group of ecologists, economists, modellers, and practising risk analysts who are committed to improving the methods used to estimate risks posed by invasive alien species to agricultural and natural resources. The group also strives to improve communication about pest risks to biosecurity, production, and natural-resource-sector stakeholders so that risks can be better managed. The IPRMW previously identified ten activities to improve pest risk assessment procedures, among these were: “improve representations of uncertainty, … expand communications with decision-makers on the interpretation and use of risk maps, … increase international collaboration, … incorporate climate change, … [and] study how human and biological dimensions interact” (Venette et al. 2010.
Gil-Serna, Jessica; Patiño, Belén; Cortes, Laura; Gonzalez-Jaen, Maria Teresa; Vazquez, Covadonga
Aspergillus steynii and Aspergillus westerdijkiae are the main ochratoxin A (OTA) producing species of Aspergillus section Circumdati. Due to its recent description, few data are available about the influence of ecophysiological factors on their growth and OTA production profiles. In this work, the effect of temperature (20, 24 and 28 °C) and water activity (aw) (0.928, 0.964 and 0.995) on growth, sporulation and OTA production by these fungi was examined in CYA and media prepared from paprika, green coffee, anise, grapes, maize and barley. Growth was positively affected by the highest temperature and aw values indicating that both species might be expected in warm climates or storage conditions. However, optimal growth conditions showed differences depending on the medium. OTA production was markedly affected by substrate and showed qualitative and quantitative differences. Both species, especially A. steynii, represent a great potential risk of OTA contamination due to their high production in a variety of conditions and substrates, in particular in barley and paprika-based media. Additionally, neither growth nor sporulation did result good indicators of OTA production by A. steynii or A. westerdijkiae; therefore, specific and highly-sensitive detection methods become essential tools for control strategies to reduce OTA risk by these species.
Public policy and regulatory strategies in the global climate change context: opportunities and limitations of programmatic CDM; Politicas publicas e estrategias regulatorias no contexto das mudancas climaticas globais: oportunidades e limitacoes do MDL programatico
Romeiro, Viviane; Simoes, Andre Felipe; Januzzi, Gilberto M. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FEM/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos
Carbon Market and its implications to reduce green house effect has been broadly discussed in the context of global climate change. This paper intends to analyze the new regulation of global climate change since Programmatic CDM was created, describing the proceeds to its implementation and discussing limitations and opportunities analyzes of this mechanism as a tool to obtain alternative energy source. It is discussed the challenges and opportunities about CDM programs in the international legal system in which Kyoto Protocol is based, as well as its contribution to attain benefits to global climate system and quality of social life. (author)
Hazelnut is a type of plant that grows in wet and humid climatic conditions. Adverse climatic conditions result in the formation of aflatoxin in hazelnuts during the harvesting, drying, and storing processes. Aflatoxin is considered an important food contaminant, which makes aflatoxin analysis important in the international produce trade. For this reason, validation is important for the analysis of aflatoxin in hazelnuts. The limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) are two ...
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Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.
Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: Producing Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L. and Bush Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L. for Improved Food Security and Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First Nations Community
Christine D. Barbeau
Full Text Available Aboriginal people in Canada experience disproportionately high rates of diet-related illnesses, such as obesity and diabetes. Food insecurity has been identified as a contributing factor to these illnesses along with a loss of traditional lifestyle. Current food systems within northern subarctic and arctic regions of Canada rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available, and are environmentally unsustainable. A warming subarctic and arctic climate present challenges, but also offers the opportunity for local agricultural production that can increase food security and promote a more sustainable food system. In this study the feasibility of sustainably growing potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L. utilizing agroforestry practices to enhance food security in remote subarctic communities is explored through a case study in Fort Albany First Nation in northern Ontario, Canada. Potato crops were grown over a two-year period and rotated into plots that had been planted with green bush beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.. Results showed that potatoes and bush beans could be grown successfully in the subarctic without the use of greenhouses with yields comparable to more conventional high-input agricultural methods. In subarctic Canada, sustainable local food production can help to promote social capital, healthier lifestyles, and food security.
Hedlund, Jonas; Lind, Bo; Tremblay, Marius; Zackrisson, Peter; Cederbom, Charlotte
Higher temperatures, higher average precipitation and increased occurrence of extreme rainfall events are some expected climate changes in Sweden during the coming 70-100 years. Due to the changing climate the risk for floods, erosion and landslides are expected to increase. in large parts of the country. To prevent extensive floodings and damages of cities and infrastructure around Lake Vänern, it is necessary to allow controlled overflow from Lake Vänern through the river Göta Älv. An overflow in the river, in turn, leads to increased risk for erosion and landslides along the Göta Älv valley. In order to meet the upcoming climate changes and to handle the increasing flows through the river, we need to improve the knowledge of the stability of the entire river bank. The Swedish Government has commissioned the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) to investigate the landslide potential of the Göta Älv valley, taking the predicted climate changes into consideration. The investigated area includes the parts of Göta Älv that could be affected by the increased flows from Lake Vänern; areas where the increased flow will affect stability and where landslides could cause serious damages or damming of the river. The investigation area includes c. 90 km of the Göta Älv river plus tributaries in connection to Göta Älv. In the landslide risk analyses developed for Göta Älv, the likelihood of landslides and estimation of the subsequent consequences are included. The methodology involves mapping of landslide hazards and a judgement of the risk area on the basis of a risk matrix. The landslide risk analysis allows for an assessment of where geotechnical reinforcements would be necessary. A cost estimation for the required reinforcement measures is also provided. In areas where the estimated risk for a landslide is low (e.g. limited consequences), stability mapping in accordance with the model used by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) is developed
Henne, Paul D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Berryman, Erin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang
The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) provides unique opportunities to understand how changing climate, land use, and disturbance affect ecosystem carbon balance. The GYE is one of the largest, most intact ecosystems in the United States. However, distinct management histories on National Park, National Forest, and private lands, elevational climate gradients, and variable fire activity, have created a mosaic of stand ages and forest types. It is uncertain how greenhouse forcing may alter the carbon balance of the GYE. Whereas increasing temperatures may enhance productivity and perpetuate the GYE as a carbon sink, climate-driven increases in fire frequency may offset productivity gains by limiting biomass accumulation. We investigated how changes in fire frequency and size may affect vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration potential in the GYE using the LANDIS-II dynamic landscape vegetation model. LANDIS-II provides sufficient spatial resolution to capture landscape-level variation in forest biomass and forest types (i.e. 90 × 90 m grid cells), but can integrate disturbance regimes and vegetation dynamics across the entire GYE (92,000 km2). We initiated our simulations with biomass and stand conditions that preceded the exceptional 1988 fire, when 16% of the GYE burned. We inferred the biomass, species abundances, and stand demographics of each model cell by combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data, and developed two fire regime scenarios from historical fire records. We developed a historic wildfire scenario with infrequent fires by excluding 1988 from our calibration of fire sizes and frequencies, and a future scenario with more frequent and larger fires by including 1988 in our calibrations. Fire frequency increased in all forest types in our future scenario, with a 152% increase in the annual forest area burned relative to observed area burned during recent decades. However, the changes in fire frequency varied among forest types, with
Dunton, K. H.; Schonberg, S. V.; Mctigue, N.; Bucolo, P. A.; Connelly, T. L.; McClelland, J. W.
Changes in sea-ice cover, coastal erosion, and freshwater run-off have the potential to greatly influence carbon assimilation pathways and affect trophic structure in benthic communities across the western Arctic. In the Chukchi Sea, variations in the duration and timing of ice cover affect the delivery of ice algae to a relatively shallow (40-50 m) shelf benthos. Although ice algae are known as an important spring carbon subsidy for marine benthic fauna, ice algal contributions may also help initiate productivity of an active microphytobenthos. Recent studies provide clear evidence that the microphytobenthos are photosynthetically active, and have sufficient light and nutrients for in situ growth. The assimilation of benthic diatoms from both sources may explain the 13C enrichment observed in benthic primary consumers throughout the northern Chukchi. On the eastern Beaufort Sea coast, shallow (2-4 m) estuarine lagoon systems receive massive subsidies of terrestrial carbon that is assimilated by a benthic fauna of significant importance to upper trophic level species, but again, distinct 13C enrichment in benthic primary consumers suggests the existence of an uncharacterized food source. Since ice algae are absent, we believe the 13C enrichment in benthic fauna is caused by the assimilation of benthic microalgae, as reflected in seasonally high benthic chlorophyll in spring under replete light and nutrient conditions. Our observations suggest that changes in ice cover, on both temporal and spatial scales, are likely to have significant effects on the magnitude and timing of organic matter delivery to both shelf and nearshore systems, and that locally produced organic matter may become an increasingly important carbon subsidy that affects trophic assimilation and secondary ecosystem productivity.
Final synthesis report and resolutions: Agadir international conference 'The integration of sustainable agriculture, rural development, and ecosystems in the context of climate change, the energy crisis and food insecurity'
Shahid, S.A.; D' Silva, J.; Bennion, P.; Behnassi, M.
The three days of deliberations of the Agadir International Conference focused on the high level topic of sustainable agriculture, rural development and ecosystems in the context of climate change, the energy crisis, the rise in global population and food insecurity. This conference came at a time of increasing international concern with the climate change, energy shortage and global hunger challenges. More than a hundred scientists, experts and governmental officials from 40 countries provided their perspectives on these critical issues from an interdisciplinary view. The key points from the five plenary sessions and fourteen panels are given.
Zhang, B.; Tian, H.; Lu, C.; Yang, J.; Ren, W.
Rice fields, supporting over half of the global population, consumed around 30% of the freshwater used for global crop growth and identified as one of the major methane (CH4) sources. Asia, in where 90% of rice is consumed, took over 90% of the total CH4 emission from the global rice field. With the increasing water scarcity and rapidly growth population, it is urgent to address how to simultaneously maintain or even increase food production, reduce water consumption, and benefit climate. In this study, we used a process-based model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model), which has the capability to simultaneously simulate the carbon, water, and nitrogen fluxes and storages within the terrestrial ecosystem, and also the exchanges of greenhouse gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, to quantify the magnitude, spatial and temporal variation of rice production and CH4 emissions under different water management practices. Simulated results have been evaluated against field observations, inventory-based and atmospheric inversion estimates. By implementing a set of experimental simulations, the results could provide insights for reasonable implementation of optimum water management practices, which is also crucial for policy maker to make trade-off decisions to increase yield and reduce GHG emissions through effective mitigation strategies.
Full Text Available Abstract Background A sedentary lifestyle and increased consumption of energy dense food have become more common in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to study long term effects on body composition after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limited physical activity in young normal weight subjects. Methods Eighteen subjects, mean age 26 (6.6 years, increased their energy intake with in average 70% and physical activity were not to exceed 5000 steps/day. Body composition was measured by Dual energy x-ray (DXA at baseline, after the intervention and after 12 months. A matched control group was also included. ANOVA and Student's paired and unpaired t-test were used. Results During the intervention body weight increased with 6.4 (2.8 kg and DXA measurements showed increases of both fat free mass and fat mass. Six months after the intervention the subjects had lost most of the weight gain, - 4.7 (3.1 kg. Twelve months after the intervention body weight had increased with 1.5 (2.4 kg compared to baseline (p = 0.018. DXA measurements at 12 months showed unchanged fat free mass compared to baseline but higher fat mass, + 1.4 (1.9 kg (p = 0.01. After 2.5 years the increase of body weight was 3.1 (4.0 kg (p = 0.01 while there was no change in controls compared to baseline, + 0.1(2.5 kg (p = 0.88. Conclusion One year after a short term intervention with increased fast food based hyper-alimentation there was an increase of fat mass but unchanged fat free mass. As the change of fat mass was larger than expected from prospective epidemiological studies and as there was no increase of body weight in controls it raises the issue whether there is a long-term effect to increase fat mass of a short period of hyper-alimentation.
... more rapidly in warm environments. These diseases can cause gastrointestinal distress and, in severe cases, death.  Practices to safeguard food can help avoid these illnesses even as the climate changes. Climate change will have a variety of impacts ...
Hanemaaijer, A.H.; De Ridder, W.; Aalbers, T.G.; Eickhout, B.; Hilderink, H.B.M.; Manders, A.J.G.; Nagelhout, D.; Petersen, A.C. (eds.)
The world is too small to simultaneously produce enough food (including meat) for everyone and to deliver biofuels on a large enough scale to slow down climate change and maintain biodiversity. The Netherlands in a Sustainable World (second sustainability outlook) presents sufficient options for fighting poverty, tackling climate change and limiting the loss of biodiversity. The costs of these options can be limited to a few percent of GDP in 2040. However, this will only be possible with coordinated international policies.
Full Text Available The depth of traditional knowledge found in indigenous and marginalized communities dictates the extent to which their populations adapt to and mitigates climate change much as the intactness of biodiversity of the agro-ecosystems on which they depend does. Often, a lot more is done to ensure the intactness of biodiversity than the effective sharing of traditional knowledge in a quest to empower indigenous and marginalized populations to adapt to and mitigate climate change. But the latter is equally important as the former, and the two ought to go close together in empowering indigenous and marginalized populations. Nonetheless, the effective sharing of a dynamic commodity as traditional knowledge requires an all inclusive approach which involves consultation with all groups as the leaving out or the limited participation of any group could undermine the sharing process. However, there are issues that arise in ensuring an all-inclusive traditional knowledge sharing process. Issues may be viewed as challenges or opportunities to the effective sharing of traditional knowledge, and arise as a result of cultural, political, economic, legal, geographical, technical, historical, and institutional differences (subtle as they may be within/among indigenous and marginalized groups. Thus, this paper captures these challenges and opportunities that characterize the all-inclusive sharing of traditional knowledge within/among the different groups in indigenous and marginalized populations. And, recommends the best way forward by using competent actors who are self-motivated to bring all their competences to the facilitation of all-inclusive traditional knowledge sharing within/among the different groups for oneness of voice of indigenous and marginalized communities.
Chambwera, Muyeye; Anderson, Simon
African agriculture is already struggling to meet increasing demand for food. Climate change, which will alter agroecological conditions and looks set to arrest and decrease agricultural yields on the continent, will make it even harder to achieve food security. Boosting agricultural productivity in Africa, especially in the face of climate change, cannot be achieved without the benefits of cutting edge science. Advances in technology development and transfer, capacity building and policy research must be harnessed by developing and disseminating relevant strategies and technologies, and improving policy environments. The European Initiative for Agricultural Research for Development (EIARD), which facilitates and coordinates European policy and support for agricultural research for development, must integrate climate change into its activities and ensure that agricultural research for development and climate change adaptation are not disjointed. This demands a more strategic and coordinated approach from the initiative — one that reflects African realities, responds to African priorities for adaptation and development, and makes the best use of limited resources.
Wahlqvist, Mark L
Food systems have changed markedly with human settlement and agriculture, industrialisation, trade, migration and now the digital age. Throughout these transitions, there has been a progressive population explosion and net ecosystem loss and degradation. Climate change now gathers pace, exacerbated by ecological dysfunction. Our health status has been challenged by a developing people-environment mismatch. We have regarded ecological conquest and innovative technology as solutions, but have not understood how ecologically dependent and integrated we are. We are ecological creatures interfaced by our sensoriness, microbiomes, shared regulatory (endocrine) mechanisms, immune system, biorhythms and nutritional pathways. Many of us are 'nature-deprived'. We now suffer what might be termed ecological health disorders (EHD). If there were less of us, nature's resilience might cope, but more than 9 billion people by 2050 is probably an intolerable demand on the planet. Future food must increasingly take into account the pressures on ecosystem-dependent food systems, with foods probably less biodiverse, although eating in this way allows optimal health; energy dysequilibrium with less physical activity and foods inappropriately energy dense; and less socially-conducive food habits. 'Personalised Nutrition', with extensive and resource-demanding nutrigenomic, metabolomic and microbiomic data may provide partial health solutions in clinical settings, but not be justified for ethical, risk management or sustainability reasons in public health. The globally prevalent multidimensional malnutritional problems of food insecurity, quality and equity require local, regional and global action to prevent further ecosystem degradation as well as to educate, provide sustainable livelihoods and encourage respectful social discourse and practice about the role of food.
EPA sets limits on how much of a pesticide may be used on food during growing and processing, and how much can remain on the food you buy. Learn about regulation of pesticides on food and how you can limit exposure.
Hagen-Plantinga, E.A.; Leistra, M.H.G.; Sinke, J.D.; Vroom, M.W.; Savelkoul, H.F.J.; Hendriks, W.H.
Conflicting results have been reported in the literature in terms of the usefulness of serological testing for IgG against food allergens in dogs with cutaneous adverse food reaction (CAFR). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the suitability of a commercially available IgG ELISA for identi
The present, according to the absolute -rationalism,the lawmaking technology of food safety is set down, this lawmak- ing conception is that believe man hold the absolute - rational recolgaizing capability and treated as anything from obverse, which the character of legislation technology regard ＂increasing good＂ as the aim of lawmaking, therfore, the determinacy cause the one - sidedness at one time. Berpl and Kun, the scientist and philosopher, their limited - rationalism think that the rule of a theory science is not ＂conformable＂ but ＂fake- testified＂ or ＂contradicted＂ ,which the character of lawmaking technology is that the aim of lawmaking is not to increase good but decease bad. Therefore, we can amend the legislation technology by the analysis vis- ual of the limited - rationalism, which will made lawmaking technology not only the determinacy, but also the perfectibility.%目前，食品安全立法技术是基于完全理性论基础上制定的，这种立法理念是相信人拥有完全理性认识能力，对一切事物采取正面看法，其立法技术特征是以“增进善”为立法目的，因而在力图表明技术指标确定性的同时，导致了片面性。科学哲学家波普尔、库恩的有限理性论则认为，衡量一种理论科学地位的标准不是“可证实”，而是“可证伪性”或“可反驳性”，在此立法理念指引下的立法技术特征表现为：立法目的并不一定会“增善”，但却可以“减少恶”。因此，以有限理性论为分析视角，可修正立法技术，使立法技术指标不仅具有确定性，更具有全面性。
World market for biofuels in the tension field between climate protection, food guarantee and lasting mobility; Weltmarkt fuer Biokraftstoffe - im Spannungsfeld zwischen Klimaschutz, Nahrungssicherheit und nachhaltiger Mobilitaet
Knauf, G. [Forum Umwelt und Entwicklung, Bonn (Germany)
Bioenergy is a very complex energy carrier, much more complex than photovoltaic or wind. Different applications, technologies and raw materials must be combined with different locations, climate zones, Know-how and demands. The necessity for a joint effort is very strong in order to meet the demand that we make on the energetic use of biomass. Bioenergy is an important element in an energy mix that meets future demands. It can only cover a small share in our energy demand, which is therefore even more important. Presently no altenative scenario exists that does not require bioenergy. Hence bioenergy can make a small but important contribution. Unfortunately bioenergy is only a limited resource, which achieves the highest efficiency in the combined heat and electric power field. The energy yield per hectar is significantly higher for these applications than the mobility field. As long as the automobile industry can not present an alternative to the classic combustion engine that is ready for series production biofuels are without alternative. (orig.)
Milesi, C.; Samanta, A.; Hashimoto, H.; Kumar, K.; Ganguly, S.; Thenkabail, P. S.; Srivastava, A. N.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.
One of the major challenges we face on our planet is increasing agricultural production to meet the dietary requirements of an additional 2.5 billion people by the mid of the century while limiting cropland expansion and other damages to natural resources. This problem is even more so challenging given that nearly all the population growth will take place where the majority of the hungry live today and where ongoing and future climate changes are projected to most negatively impact agricultural production, the semi-arid tropics (SAT). The SAT contain 40% of the global irrigated and rainfed croplands in over 50 developing countries and a growing population of over a billion and half people, many of which live in absolute poverty and strongly depend on agriculture that is constrained by chronic water shortages. Rates of food grain production in many of the countries of the SAT have progressively increased since the mid 1960s aided by the Green Revolution and relatively favourable climatic conditions. However, aggregated agricultural production statistics indicate that the rate of food grain production has recently stalled or declined in several of the countries in this region, escalating the concerns over matters of food security, that is availability of food and one’s access to it, in a region where many people live in extreme poverty, depend on an agrarian economy and are expected to face increasingly worse climatic conditions in the near future. In this paper we analyze the agricultural deceleration and its drivers over the country of India, which faces the daunting challenge of needing a 50-100% increase in yields of major crops by the middle to the 21st century to feed its growing population. We analyze the long term (1982-2006) record of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) together with climate, land use, and crop production
Healthy food trends - borecole; Healthy snacks - kale; Weight loss - kale; Healthy diet - kale; Wellness - kale ... drugs), you may need to limit vitamin K foods. Vitamin K can affect how these medicines work. ...
Full Text Available ... Expert Contact Us Breadcrumb Home Topics Climate Solutions Secondary Navigation Animals Biotechnology Climate Solutions Conservation Data Disaster Farming Food and Nutrition Forestry Health and ...
A safe and nutritious food supply is a vital component of food security. Food security, in a public health context, can be summarized as permanent access to a sufficient, safe, and nutritious food supply needed to maintain an active and healthy lifestyle. The impacts of climate change on food produc...
Yin, Xiaogang; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind; Wang, M.
by extreme climate events and climatic change. Therefore, a set of expert survey has been done to identify current and project future climate limitations to crop production and explore appropriate adaptation measures in NFR. Droughts have been the largest limitation for maize (Zea mays L.) in NSL and SSL...... film for soil cover. With the projected climate change and increasing risk of climatic extremes, additional adaptation measures will become relevant for sustaining and improving productivity of crops in NFR to ensure food security in China......., and for soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) in SSL. Chilling damage has been the largest limitation for rice (Oryza sativa L.) production in XA, SJ and CB. Projected climate change is expected to be beneficial for expanding the crop growing season, and to provide more suitable conditions for sowing and harvest. Autumn...
Climate changes and their consequences. An examplary case study on the possibilities and limits of an interdisciplinary climate change risk assessment; Klimaaenderungen und die Folgen. Eine exemplarische Fallstudie ueber die Moeglichkeiten und Grenzen einer interdisziplinaeren Klimafolgenforschung
The work looks at the consequences of a possible climate change by means of the example of tourism in Schleswig-Holstein. It proceeds on the hypothesis that the social, economic and political consequences of climate change do not solely depend on climatic developments but also on how those concerned, and decision-makers, react to climate changes, i.e., what precautions or remedial action they take.- By so doing, it contributes at the same time to the development of methods for climate change risk assessment, which, in Germany, is still in its early stage. It is therefore considered equally important to accompany the work by a method-critical approach (orig./KW). [Deutsch] Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht am Beispiel des Fremdenverkehrs in Schleswig-Holstein die Folgen einer moeglichen Klimaaenderung. Sie laesst sich dabei von der Hypothese leiten, dass die sozialen, oekonomischen und politischen Folgen von Klimaaenderungen nicht allein von klimatischen Entwicklungen abhaengen, sondern auch davon, wie die Betroffenen und Entscheidungstraeger auf Klimaaenderungen reagieren, wie sie sich vorsorgend bzw. nachsorgend anpassen. Damit wird zugleich ein Beitrag zur Methodenentwicklung fuer die Klimafolgenforschung geleistet, die in Deutschland noch am Anfang steht. Auf eine methodenkritische Begleitung wird daher Wert gelegt. (orig./KW)
... areas; Childhood Obesity Prevention; Climate Change; Food Safety; Global Food Security; Sustainable... National Institute of Food and Agriculture Solicitation of Input From Stakeholders Regarding the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative AGENCY: National Institute of Food and Agriculture, USDA....
Moradeyo Adebanjo Otitoju
Full Text Available This study focused on the constraints to the use of climate variability/change adaptation strategies in South-west Nigeria. Multistage random technique was employed to select the location and the respondents. Descriptive statistics and principal component analysis (PCA were the analytical tools engaged in this study. The constraints to climate variability and change examined before did not use PCA but generalized factor analysis. Hence, there is need to examine these constraints extensively using PCA. Uncovering the constraints to the use of climate variability/change adaptation strategies among crop framers is important to give a realistic direction in the development of farmer-inclusive climate policies in Nigeria. The PCA result showed that the principal constraints that the farmers faced in climate change adaptation were public, institutional and labour constraint; land, neighbourhood norms and religious beliefs constraint; high cost of inputs, technological and information constraint; farm distance, access to climate information, off-farm job and credit constraint; and poor agricultural programmes and service delivery constraint. These findings pointed out the need for both the government and non-government organizations to intensify efforts on institutional, technological and farmers’ friendly land tenure and information systems as effective measures to guide inclusive climate change adaptation policies and development in South-west Nigeria.
Esralew, Rachel A.; Flint, Lorraine; Thorne, James H.; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Alan
Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981-2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule's Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3-100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10-20 to 40-60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.
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Climate policy coherence. Conflicts and synergies in policies influencing the production of forest bioenergy and food chains; Ilmastopolitiikan ja muun yhteiskuntapolitiikan koherenssi. Ristiriidat ja synergiat metsaebioenergiaan ja elintarvikeketjuihin vaikuttavissa politiikkatoimissa
Kivimaa, P.; Huttunen, S.; Hilden, M.; Laturi, J.; Lehtonen, H.; Pohjola, J.; Uusivuori, J.; Virtanen, Y.
To avoid policy conflicts and to enhance policy synergies, new knowledge on how policy instruments within and across different sectors affect climate change mitigation and adaptation is needed. An important question is how different policy sectors cohere with climate policy? In this study, climate policy coherence was examined with respect to policies related to forest bioenergy and food chains, from the perspectives of policy instruments and actors affected by the policies. The analysis was based on quantitative models, policy analysis, interviews and workshops. Clear shortcomings in both the recognition and acknowledgement of policy conflicts were identified. Regarding forest bioenergy this was manifested as overlapping targets for the utilization of forest resources without clear knowledge on how the climate policy aims are related to other aims for the use of forests. Local actors perceived coherence problems as rapidly changing instruments and as differences in the acknowledgement of different bioenergy chains. The quantitative models showed indirect and cross-sectoral effects. For example the increasing utilization of wood in energy production increases the prices and transportation costs of energy wood. This affects the relative price of wood against peat and, thus, the fuel choice of power plants. The market effects should be taken into account, for example, when introducing policy instruments tied to the prices of emission allowances. Increase in the price of pulpwood caused by energy use of wood is an example of a coherence problem between climate and industrial policies. Regarding food chains, nutrition recommendations are coherent with climate policy: Changing consumption to match the nutrition recommendations would reduce GHG emissions. On the other hand, actual consumption equivalent to the recommendations would not directly lead to significantly decreasing domestic agricultural production and emissions therein, but the effect would rather be global
Fukunaga, Atsushi; Shimizu, Hideki; Tanaka, Mami; Kikuzawa, Ayuko; Tsujimoto, Mariko; Sekimukai, Akiko; Yamashita, Junji; Horikawa, Tatsuya; Nishigori, Chikako
Food-dependent exercise-induced anaphylaxis (FDEIA) is a severe systemic syndrome induced by physical exercise after ingesting causative food. Aspirin is a well-known trigger for anaphylaxis in patients with FDEIA. Possible mechanisms by which symptoms are aggravated by aspirin include enhanced antigen absorption and mast cell activation. The aim of this study was to determine whether aspirin intake has an influence on mast cell/basophil activation in patients with FDEIA. Provocation tests revealed that adding aspirin to the causative food challenge in 7 of 9 (77.8%) patients with FDEIA provoked symptoms. In most cases, pretreatment with aspirin did not enhance skin tests (71.4%) or histamine release tests (88.9%) with food allergen challenges. The study confirms that histamine release and skin prick tests can be adjunctive tools for diagnosing FDEIA. In addition, our results suggest that exacerbation of FDEIA symptoms by aspirin is not mediated by direct effects of aspirin on mast cell/basophil activation.
Full Text Available Resumen: Este artículo es una primera introducción al concepto de desierto alimentario que surge a raíz de las desigualdades territoriales en torno a la presencia de comercios de alimentación en diferentes países. En primer lugar, se exponen las tesis de los desiertos alimentarios que vinculan el desabastecimiento de establecimientos comerciales a la clase social y los problemas nutricionales derivados de una escasa oferta alimentaria. A continuación, se exponen los trabajos que han contestado esta relación debido a la consideración de que existen otros factores determinantes en el acceso de la población a la alimentación saludable. Para terminar, se expone la metodología utilizada en ambas formas de investigar el acceso a la alimentación y se concluye señalando la complejidad que este concepto teórico tiene a la hora de ser aplicado sobre el terreno.// Abstract: This article is an early approach to the concept of food desert created by geographic inequalities regarding the presence of grocery stores in different countries. First, it exposes the theory of food deserts linking the lack of retail outlets to social class and nutritional problems arising from poor food supply. Later, the paper focuses on the investigations have answered this relationship because they believe that there are more factors that also determine how the population access to healthy food. Finally, the methodology used in both ways of research about food access. It concludes by noting the complexity of the theoretical concept when being applied.
Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia
The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human
Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.
The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.
Radio frequency (RF) heating is a commonly used food processing technology that has been applied for drying and baking as well as thawing of frozen foods. Its use in pasteurization, as well as for sterilization and disinfection of foods, is more limited. This column will review various RF heating ap...
Wahlqvist, Mark L
Health is intrinsic to human security (HumS) although it is somewhat anthropocentric and about our own psychosocial and biomedical status more than various external threats. The 1994 United Nations Development Program definition of HumS includes economic, food, environmental, personal, community and political security with freedom from fear and want. Environmental factors are critical for health security (HealS), especially with widespread socio-economic difficulty, and health systems less affordable or accessible. The nexus between nutritionally-related disorders and infectious disease is the most pervasive world health problem. Most if not all of the Millennium Development Goals are food-linked. Maternal nutrition has life-long health effects on the yet-to-be born child. The mix of essential nutrient deprivation and energy imbalance is rife across many societies. Food systems require deeper understanding and governance to overcome these food-related health risks which are matters of food security (FoodS). Nutritionally-related Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYS) are improving markedly in many parts of the world, along with poverty and hunger reduction and health system advances. But recent economic, energy, food, water, climate change and health crises along with conflict are limiting. It is time for international and regional understanding of how households and communities can collectively manage these threats in affordable and sustainable ways. There is untapped problem-solving capacity at the international local level if supported by combined food--health systems expertise, innovation, infrastructure and governance. Principles of equity and ethics must apply. The Food in Health Security (FIHS) roundtable aims to develop a Network to facilitate this process.
Based on the analysis of microbiological criteria for ready-to-eat foods in Codex Alimentarius Commission, the European Union, Australia, New Zealand, England and HongKong China, the article provides recommendations for the elaboration of microbiological criteria of Chinese national food standard.%本文通过比较我国香港地区与国际食品法典委员会、欧盟、澳大利亚、新西兰、英国即食食品微生物限量标准,为制定我国的食品安全微生物标准提供技术依据.
Soriano, Barbara; Garrido, Alberto; Novo, Paula
Increasing pressure to expand agriculture production is giving rise to renewed interest to obtain access to land and water resources in the world. Water footprint evaluations show the importance of green water in global food trade and production. Green water and land are almost inseparable resources. In this work we analyse the role of foreign direct investment and cooperation programmes from developed countries in developing counties, focusing on virtual water trade and associated resources. We develop econometric models with the aim to explain observed trends in virtual water exports from developing countries as explained by the inverse flow of investments and cooperation programmes. We analyse the main 19 emerging food exporters, from Africa, Asia and America, using 15 years of data. Results show that land per capita availability and foreign direct investments explain observed flows of virtual water exports. However, there is no causality with these and flows cooperation investments. Our analysis sheds light on the underlying forces explaining the phenomenon of land grab, which is the appropriation of land access in developing countries by food-importers.
Garber, Andrea K; Lustig, Robert H
Studies of food addiction have focused on highly palatable foods. While fast food falls squarely into that category, it has several other attributes that may increase its salience. This review examines whether the nutrients present in fast food, the characteristics of fast food consumers or the presentation and packaging of fast food may encourage substance dependence, as defined by the American Psychiatric Association. The majority of fast food meals are accompanied by a soda, which increases the sugar content 10-fold. Sugar addiction, including tolerance and withdrawal, has been demonstrated in rodents but not humans. Caffeine is a "model" substance of dependence; coffee drinks are driving the recent increase in fast food sales. Limited evidence suggests that the high fat and salt content of fast food may increase addictive potential. Fast food restaurants cluster in poorer neighborhoods and obese adults eat more fast food than those who are normal weight. Obesity is characterized by resistance to insulin, leptin and other hormonal signals that would normally control appetite and limit reward. Neuroimaging studies in obese subjects provide evidence of altered reward and tolerance. Once obese, many individuals meet criteria for psychological dependence. Stress and dieting may sensitize an individual to reward. Finally, fast food advertisements, restaurants and menus all provide environmental cues that may trigger addictive overeating. While the concept of fast food addiction remains to be proven, these findings support the role of fast food as a potentially addictive substance that is most likely to create dependence in vulnerable populations.
... de los dientes Video: Getting an X-ray Food Poisoning KidsHealth > For Kids > Food Poisoning Print A ... find out how to avoid it. What Is Food Poisoning? Food poisoning comes from eating foods that ...
Power, Scott; Delage, François; Wang, Guomin; Smith, Ian; Kociuba, Greg
Observed surface temperature trends over the period 1998-2012/2014 have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short-trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in the model values and the implications for global warming generally. Here we re-examine these issues, but as they relate to changes over much longer-term changes. We find that on multi-decadal time scales there is little evidence for any change in the observed global warming rate, but some evidence for a recent temporary slowdown in the warming rate in the Pacific. This multi-decadal slowdown can be partly explained by a cool phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and a short-term excess of La Niña events. We also analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP climate models. All of the model simulations examined simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This difference cannot be fully explained by observed internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. Models which simulate the greatest global warming over the past half-century also project warming that is among the highest of all models by the end of the twenty-first century, under both low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Given that the same models are poorest in representing observed multi-decadal temperature change, confidence in the highest projections is reduced.
Several recent peer reviewed manuscripts have reported on the great challenges humanity is confronting during the XXI century, including a changing climate, depletion of water resources from groundwater and/or snow caps sources that are needed for agricultural production, deforestation, desertificat...
Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Biewald, Anne; Pehl, Michaja; Bonsch, Markus; Baumstark, Lavinia; Klein, David; Popp, Alexander; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar
Abstract Climate change mitigation, in the context of growing population and ever increasing economic activity, will require a transformation of energy and agricultural systems, posing significant challenges to global water resources. We use an integrated modelling framework of the water-energy-land
The scientific literature reports that climate change will impact weather in North America, with projections for a drier and hotter southeastern United States and northwestern Mexico. The areas of Mexico that are projected to be impacted cover important grain areas of the country. Additionally, seve...
Kahiluoto, H; Smith, P; Moran, D;
Rewarding smallholders for sequestering carbon in agricultural land can improve food security while mitigating climate change. Verification of carbon offsets in food-insecure regions is possible and achievable through rigorously controlled monitoring......Rewarding smallholders for sequestering carbon in agricultural land can improve food security while mitigating climate change. Verification of carbon offsets in food-insecure regions is possible and achievable through rigorously controlled monitoring...
Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.
Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa
Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.
Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa
This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.
Blois, Jessica L.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Behrensmeyer, Anna K.
Environmental conditions, dispersal lags, and interactions among species are major factors structuring communities through time and across space. Ecologists have emphasized the importance of biotic interactions in determining local patterns of species association. In contrast, abiotic limits, dis...
Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Levermann, Anders
Atmospheric CO2 fertilization may go some way to compensating the negative impact of climatic changes on crop yields, but it comes at the expense of a deterioration of the current nutritional value of food.
Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael
Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.
Advantages and limits to the fermentation of easily-degradable industrial and food wastes in sewage treatment works; Vorteile und Grenzen der Vergaerung von leicht abbaubaren Industrie- und Lebensmittelabfaellen in Abwasserreinigungsanlagen. Vergleich zu landwirtschaftlichen Anlagen - Schlussbericht
Bachmann, N.; Wellinger, A. [Nova Energie GmbH, Aadorf (Switzerland); Bachmann, N. [EREP SA, Aclens (Switzerland)
This final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the advantages and limits that apply to the fermentation of industrial and food wastes in sewage treatment facilities in comparison to agricultural installations. For this ecological review, a material-flow analysis was made which permitted the nutrient loss to be quantified. The report presents data on the energy and carbon dioxide balances for the method and also looks at the method from an economical point of view. Co-fermentation in the wastewater treatment plant in Berne, Switzerland, and in agricultural plant are examined.
Trolle, Ellen; Mogensen, Lisbeth; Thorsen, Anne Vibeke
The aim of this study was to investigate how the present Danish diet could be changed in a climate friendly direction that follows the recommendations of a healthy diet. The carbon footprint (CF) of an average Danish diet was calculated and compared to CF of a recommended healthy diet by 1......%, if the healthy diet was eaten instead of the average current diet. However, if the diet was climate optimized by choosing foods with a low CF within the food groups; meat, vegetables and fruit, CF of this diet may be reduced by 23 % compared to CF of the average diet....
Walsh, Michael J.; Gerber Van Doren, Léda; Sills, Deborah L.; Archibald, Ian; Beal, Colin M.; Gen Lei, Xin; Huntley, Mark E.; Johnson, Zackary; Greene, Charles H.
The goals of ensuring energy, water, food, and climate security can often conflict. Microalgae (algae) are being pursued as a feedstock for both food and fuels—primarily due to algae’s high areal yield and ability to grow on non-arable land, thus avoiding common bioenergy-food tradeoffs. However, algal cultivation requires significant energy inputs that may limit potential emission reductions. We examine the tradeoffs associated with producing fuel and food from algae at the energy-food-water-climate nexus. We use the GCAM integrated assessment model to demonstrate that algal food production can promote reductions in land-use change emissions through the offset of conventional agriculture. However, fuel production, either via co-production of algal food and fuel or complete biomass conversion to fuel, is necessary to ensure long-term emission reductions, due to the high energy costs of cultivation. Cultivation of salt-water algae for food products may lead to substantial freshwater savings; but, nutrients for algae cultivation will need to be sourced from waste streams to ensure sustainability. By reducing the land demand of food production, while simultaneously enhancing food and energy security, algae can further enable the development of terrestrial bioenergy technologies including those utilizing carbon capture and storage. Our results demonstrate that large-scale algae research and commercialization efforts should focus on developing both food and energy products to achieve environmental goals.
Edinger, Wieke Willemijn Huizing
between obesity and non-communicable diseases, on the one hand, and unhealthy food on the other. The EU has taken initiatives to stop this development, but these are directed at guiding consumer choice rather than at regulating foods from the point of view of their composition and nutritional value......The EU has developed a detailed stringent set of food safety rules aimed at limiting or containing the risk that people experience negative health effects from the consumption of food. In doing so, the legislator has focused on food safety in a relatively narrow sense, not including the potential...... risks to human health of foods with, e.g., negative nutritional features. While EU food safety legislation seems successful in preventing food-borne illnesses, public focus has shifted to the growing prevalence of lifestyle-related illnesses. There is convincing scientific evidence of a correlation...
Batz, M. B.; Doyle, M. P.; Morris, J. G.
Identification and prioritization of effective food safety interventions require an understanding of the relationship between food and pathogen from farm to consumption. Critical to this cause is food attribution, the capacity to attribute cases of foodborne disease to the food vehicle or other...... source responsible for illness. A wide variety of food attribution approaches and data are used around the world including the analysis of outbreak data, case-control studies, microbial subtyping and source tracking methods, and expert judgment, among others. The Food Safety Research Consortium sponsored...... the Food Attribution Data Workshop in October 2003 to discuss the virtues and limitations of these approaches and to identify future options for collecting food attribution data in the United States. We summarize workshop discussions and identify challenges that affect progress in this critical component...
Smed, Sinne; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze how news about food-related health risks affects consumers’ demands for safe food products. Design/methodology/approach – By identifying structural breaks in an econometrically estimated demand model, news with permanent impact on demand...... induces a permanent increase in the demand for pasteurized eggs, while more moderate negative news influences demand temporarily and to a lesser extent. There is, however, considerable variation in the response to food safety news across socio-demographic groups of consumers. Research limitations....../implications – The study has focused on the demand for raw eggs. Responses to food safety news may differ across foods. Furthermore, the study abstracts from possible cross-effects of safety news concerning other foods. Practical implications – The findings may be utilized for optimization of the timing and targeting...
Food allergy is an abnormal response to a food triggered by your body's immune system. In adults, the foods ... a severe reaction called anaphylaxis. Symptoms of food allergy include Itching or swelling in your mouth Vomiting, ...
... de los dientes Video: Getting an X-ray Food Allergies KidsHealth > For Kids > Food Allergies Print A ... cow's milk eggs soy wheat What Is a Food Allergy? Food allergies happen when the immune system ...
... digest foods, such as soda crackers, toast, gelatin, bananas and rice. Stop eating if your nausea returns. ... food-safety-education/get-answers/food-safety-fact-sheets/safe-food-handling/the-big-thaw-safe-defrosting- ...
Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij
A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.
Valeria De Laurentiis
Full Text Available The challenge of feeding nine billion people by 2050, in a context of constrained resources and growing environmental pressures posed by current food production methods on one side, and changing lifestyles and consequent shifts in dietary patterns on the other, exacerbated by the effects of climate change, has been defined as one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. The first step to achieve food security is to find a balance between the growing demand for food, and the limited production capacity. In order to do this three main pathways have been identified: employing sustainable production methods in agriculture, changing diets, and reducing waste in all stages of the food chain. The application of an energy, water and food nexus (EWFN approach, which takes into account the interactions and connections between these three resources, and the synergies and trade-offs that arise from the way they are managed, is a prerequisite for the correct application of these pathways. This work discusses how Life Cycle Assessment (LCA might be applicable for creating the evidence-base to foster such desired shifts in food production and consumption patterns.
Taylor, R.G.; Scanlon, B.; Döll, P.; Rodell, M.; Beek, R. van; Wada, Y.; Longuevergne, L.; Leblanc, M.; Famiglietti, J.S.; Edmunds, M.; Konikow, L.; Green, T.R.; Chen, J.; Taniguchi, M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; MacDonald, A.; Fan, Y.; Maxwell, R.M.; Yechieli, Y.; Gurdak, J.J.; Allen, D.M.; Shamsudduha, M.; Hiscock, K.; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger
As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate chang
Objective To explore a reasonable limitation standard for afiatoxins in foods to protect the health of people in China with a cost-benefit analysis. Methods A traditional mathematical model and MOE ( margin of exposure) method was used to assess the effect of different limiting standards on health for total aflatoxins and aflatoxin BI in peanut, corn and rice, and the loss of foods under different limiting standard levels was also calculated. Results The change of limiting standards for total aflatoxins and afiatoxin B1 in peanut and corn might have no significant influence on reducing the prevalence of liver cancer in China, but the loss of foods was significantly different. The change of limiting standards for total afiatoxins and aflatoxin B1 in,ice might have significant influence both on reducing liver cancer and losing foods. Conclusion The following limiting standards is advisable: 20 μg/kg for total aflatoxins and 15 μg/kg for Aflatoxin B1 in peanut and its products, 20 μg/kg for total aflatoxins and 15 μg/kg for aflatoxin B1 in corn, lOμ g/kg for total aflatoxins and 5 μg/kg or 10 μg/kg for aflatoxin B1 in flce.%目的 通过成本-效益分析,探讨建立保护中国人群健康的合理的食品中黄曲霉毒素限量标准.方法 利用传统数学模型方法和暴露限值(MOE)方法评估花生及其制品、玉米、大米中不同膳食总黄曲霉毒素和黄曲霉毒素 B1 限量标准下的健康影响,同时计算各限量水平下的食品损失.结果花生及其制品、玉米中总黄曲霉毒素、黄曲霉毒素 B1 限量水平的改变对减少我国人群肝癌患病数的作用没有显著差别,但不同的限量水平却可导致显著不同的食品损失.大米中总黄曲霉毒素、黄曲霉毒素 B1 限量水平的改变对减少我国人群肝癌患病数的作用以及导致的食品损失有较显著的影响.结论 花生及其制品中总黄曲霉毒素 20μg/kg、黄曲霉毒素 B1 15μg/kg
D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; Lambin, Eric F.
At the household level, nonfarm activities are thought to help rural poor households buffer against agricultural risks related to local climate variability by providing them with cash to buy food in the case of harvest shortfalls. Over the recent decades, households in rural Sub-Sahara have been...
Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)
If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.
Drost, H E; Carmack, E C; Farrell, A P
The objective of this study was to determine the upper thermal limits of Arctic cod Boreogadus saida by measuring the response of maximum heart rate (f(Hmax)) to acute warming. One set of fish were tested in a field laboratory in Cambridge Bay (CB), Nunavut (north of the Arctic Circle), and a second set were tested after air transport to and 6 month temperature acclimation at the Vancouver Aquarium (VA) laboratory. In both sets of tests, with B. saida acclimated to 0° C, f(Hmax) increased during acute warming up to temperatures considerably higher than the acclimation temperature and the near-freezing Arctic temperatures in which they are routinely found. Indeed, f(Hmax) increased steadily between 0.5 and 5.5° C, with no significant difference between the CB and VA tests (P > 0.05) and with an overall mean ± s.e. Q10 of 2.4 ± 0.5. The first Arrhenius breakpoint temperature (T(AB)) for f(Hmax) was also statistically indistinguishable for the two sets of tests (mean ± s.e. 3.2 ± 0.3 and 3.6 ± 0.3° C), suggesting that the temperature optimum for B. saida could be reliably measured after live transport to a more southerly laboratory location. Continued warming above 5.5° C revealed a large variability among individuals in the upper thermal limits that triggered cardiac arrhythmia (T(arr)), ranging from 10.2 to 15.2° C with mean ± s.e. 12.4 ± 0.4° C (n = 11) for the field study. A difference did exist between the CB and VA breakpoint temperatures when the Q10 value decreased below 2 (the Q10 breakpoint temperature; T(QB)) at 8.0 and 5.5° C, respectively. These results suggest that factors, other than thermal tolerance and associated cardiac performance, may influence the realized distribution of B. saida within the Arctic Circle.
Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia
The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human
Zhou, Shuangxi; Medlyn, Belinda; Sabaté, Santiago; Sperlich, Dominik; Prentice, I Colin
Predicting the large-scale consequences of drought in contrasting environments requires that we understand how drought effects differ among species originating from those environments. A previous meta-analysis of published experiments suggested that the effects of drought on both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations to photosynthesis may vary consistently among species from different hydroclimates. Here, we explicitly tested this hypothesis with two short-term water stress experiments on congeneric mesic and xeric species. One experiment was run in Australia using Eucalyptus species and the second was run in Spain using Quercus species as well as two more mesic species. In each experiment, plants were grown under moist conditions in a glasshouse, then deprived of water, and gas exchange was monitored. The stomatal response was analysed with a recently developed stomatal model, whose single parameter g1 represents the slope of the relationship between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis. The non-stomatal response was partitioned into effects on mesophyll conductance (gm), the maximum Rubisco activity (Vcmax) and the maximum electron transport rate (Jmax). We found consistency among the drought responses of g1, gm, Vcmax and Jmax, suggesting that drought imposes limitations on Rubisco activity and RuBP regeneration capacity concurrently with declines in stomatal and mesophyll conductance. Within each experiment, the more xeric species showed relatively high g1 under moist conditions, low drought sensitivity of g1, gm, Vcmax and Jmax, and more negative values of the critical pre-dawn water potential at which Vcmax declines most steeply, compared with the more mesic species. These results indicate adaptive interspecific differences in drought responses that allow xeric tree species to continue transpiration and photosynthesis for longer during periods without rain.
William G. Moseley
Full Text Available Botswana is a semi-arid, middle-income African country that imports 90 percent of its food. Despite its relative prosperity, Botswana also suffers from one of the highest measures of income inequality in the world, persistent poverty, and relatively high levels of food insecurity. The objective of this paper is to explore how political economy, climate change and livelihood dynamics are synergistically impacting household food security. The major finding is that the marginalization of smallholder farming in Botswana has as much or more to do with domestic, regional and international political economy as it does with climate change. As such, international efforts to support climate change adaptation in Botswana will have a limited effect on smallholder farming livelihoods and rural food security unless such efforts take account of political economic constraints. Effective support must be based on a grounded understanding of the real drivers of marginalization and food insecurity. One initiative that merits further exploration is the government’s backyard gardening initiative, which could be viewed as a pro-poor climate adaptation strategy. The findings of this paper are based on semi-structured interviews with policymakers and surveys with urban, peri-urban and rural households undertaken in 2012 and 2015.
Draaisma, R.B.; Wijffels, R.H.; Slegers, P.M.; Brentner, L.B.; Roy, A.; Barbosa, M.J.
The prospect of sustainable production of food ingredients from photoautotrophic microalgae was reviewed. Clearly, there is scope for microalgal oils to replace functions of major vegetable oils, and in addition to deliver health benefits to food products. Furthermore, with a limited production surf
Comino, Isabel; Fernández-Bañares, Fernando; Esteve, María; Ortigosa, Luís; Castillejo, Gemma; Fambuena, Blanca; Ribes-Koninckx, Carmen; Sierra, Carlos; Rodríguez-Herrera, Alfonso; Salazar, José Carlos; Caunedo, Ángel; Marugán-Miguelsanz, J M; Garrote, José Antonio; Vivas, Santiago; lo Iacono, Oreste; Nuñez, Alejandro; Vaquero, Luis; Vegas, Ana María; Crespo, Laura; Fernández-Salazar, Luis; Arranz, Eduardo; Jiménez-García, Victoria Alejandra; Antonio Montes-Cano, Marco; Espín, Beatriz; Galera, Ana; Valverde, Justo; Girón, Francisco José; Bolonio, Miguel; Millán, Antonio; Cerezo, Francesc Martínez; Guajardo, César; Alberto, José Ramón; Rosinach, Mercé; Segura, Verónica; León, Francisco; Marinich, Jorge; Muñoz-Suano, Alba; Romero-Gómez, Manuel; Cebolla, Ángel; Sousa, Carolina
Objectives: Treatment for celiac disease (CD) is a lifelong strict gluten-free diet (GFD). Patients should be followed-up with dietary interviews and serology as CD markers to ensure adherence to the diet. However, none of these methods offer an accurate measure of dietary compliance. Our aim was to evaluate the measurement of gluten immunogenic peptides (GIP) in stools as a marker of GFD adherence in CD patients and compare it with traditional methods of GFD monitoring. Methods: We performed a prospective, nonrandomized, multicenter study including 188 CD patients on GFD and 84 healthy controls. Subjects were given a dietary questionnaire and fecal GIP quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Serological anti-tissue transglutaminase (anti-tTG) IgA and anti-deamidated gliadin peptide (anti-DGP) IgA antibodies were measured simultaneously. Results: Of the 188 celiac patients, 56 (29.8%) had detectable GIP levels in stools. There was significant association between age and GIP in stools that revealed increasing dietary transgressions with advancing age (39.2% in subjects ≥13 years old) and with gender in certain age groups (60% in men ≥13 years old). No association was found between fecal GIP and dietary questionnaire or anti-tTG antibodies. However, association was detected between GIP and anti-DGP antibodies, although 46 of the 53 GIP stool-positive patients were negative for anti-DGP. Conclusions: Detection of gluten peptides in stools reveals limitations of traditional methods for monitoring GFD in celiac patients. The GIP ELISA enables direct and quantitative assessment of gluten exposure early after ingestion and could aid in the diagnosis and clinical management of nonresponsive CD and refractory CD. Trial registration number NCT02711397. PMID:27644734
Full Text Available Food allergy is an important public health problem affecting 5% of infants and children in Korea. Food allergy is defined as an immune response triggered by food proteins. Food allergy is highly associated with atopic dermatitis and is one of the most common triggers of potentially fatal anaphylaxis in the community. Sensitization to food allergens can occur in the gastrointestinal tract (class 1 food allergy or as a consequence of cross reactivity to structurally homologous inhalant allergens (class 2 food allergy. Allergenicity of food is largely determined by structural aspects, including cross-reactivity and reduced or enhanced allergenicity with cooking that convey allergenic characteristics to food. Management of food allergy currently focuses on dietary avoidance of the offending foods, prompt recognition and treatment of allergic reactions, and nutritional support. This review includes definitions and examines the prevalence and management of food allergies and the characteristics of food allergens.
Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter
The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.
Translations and descriptions are given in French for a number of English food terms: convenience foods, fast foods, fast foods industry, fast foods restaurant, frozen foods, deep frozen foods, fast frozen foods, quick frozen foods, dry frozen foods. (MSE)
杨艳红; 姜兆兴; 赵敏
食品中农药的最大残留限量(MRLs)是保障食品质量安全的重要立法依据，也是指导食品和农产品等生产的关键技术指标。MRLs的制定方法不仅影响农产品行业的持续发展，而且还对提高我国农产品行业的国际竞争力起到积极作用。本文简要介绍目前国内外 MRLs 标准的现状、涉及农药的种类以及制定农药最大残留限量的依据，概述了基于田间实验数据制定最大残留限量的方法，并且比较了国际上欧盟(EU)、北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)成员国、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)及农药残留联席会议(JMPR)的限量制定方案。%Pesticide maximum residue limit is a critical legislative basis for food safety and a key technical indicator to instruct food and agro-products. The establishing methods for MRLs not only influence the sustainable development of agricultural industry, but also play an actively role on the improvement of international competitiveness of Chinese agricultural industry. The current situation and principles employed to establish maximum residue limits were briefly introduced in this paper. The methods derived from field trials were summarized for setting MRLs. Meanwhile, the calculation methods proposed by European Union (EU), members of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Joint Meeting of Pesticide Residues (JMPR) were compared.
Marvin, Hans J.P.; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Janssen, Esmée M.; Fels, van der Ine; Asselt, van Esther D.; Kleter, Gijs A.
Production of sufficient, safe and nutritious food is a global challenge faced by the actors operating in the food production chain. The performance of food-producing systems from farm to fork is directly and indirectly influenced by major changes in, for example, climate, demographics, and the econ
Architecture has always had to relate to climatic conditions while providing shelter from the sun, the rain, the winds or the cold. This is a main purpose of buildings: To establish an indoor climate different from the outdoor. In the Nordic countries fuels for heating buildings has been a vital...... necessity almost as basic as food and water, and lack of wood has caused illness and migration - scarcity of energy is not a new topic either [Kjærgaard]. The new aspects are that human civilization is in danger of causing severe global climate changes, secondly that we can foresee using up the global non......-renewable reserves of oil, gas and uranium, both aspects capable of pulling the carpet under human civilization itself as we know it. The huge energy consumption especially in the northern hemisphere is closely linked to industrialization, and the response from those aware of energy and climate problems has in some...
... Loss Surgery? A Week of Healthy Breakfasts Shyness Food Labels KidsHealth > For Teens > Food Labels Print A ... have at least 95% organic ingredients. continue Making Food Labels Work for You The first step in ...
... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2010-04-01 2009-04-01 true Food starch-modified. 172.892 Section 172.892 Food... Multipurpose Additives § 172.892 Food starch-modified. Food starch-modified as described in this section may be... limitation prescribed. To insure safe use of the food starch-modified, the label of the food...
Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.
, the range of times-to-action spans several decades (see figure). Since several decades of greenhouse gas emissions have potentially large impact on long-term climate outcomes, there are serious risks associated with letting democratic consensus among locally-influenced individuals drive climate policy. Range of time-to-action (in years past 2012 for top six carbon dioxide emitters. Box-and-whiskers show the median, 25-75% confidence, and maximum-minimum limits for the 40 ensemble members for each nation/economic entity.
Davidson, O.; Halsnæs, K.; Huq, S.;
This paper explores an alternative approach to future climate policies in developing countries. Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty alleviation and economic development, it is becoming clear that the realisation of development goals may be hampered...... in the climate negotiations. First, elements are presented for an integrated approach to development and climate; second, the approach is elaborated for food and energy security in sub-Saharan Africa; and third, possibilities are outlined for international mechanisms to support such integrated development...
Pet food palatability depends first and foremost on the pet and is related to the pet food sensory properties such as aroma, texture and flavor. Sensory analysis of pet foods may be conducted by humans via descriptive or hedonic analysis, pets via acceptance or preference tests, and through a number of instrumental analysis methods. Sensory analysis of pet foods provides additional information on reasons behind palatable and unpalatable foods as pets lack linguistic capabilities. Furthermore, sensory analysis may be combined with other types of information such as personality and environment factors to increase understanding of acceptable pet foods. Most pet food flavor research is proprietary and, thus, there are a limited number of publications available. Funding opportunities for pet food studies would increase research and publications and this would help raise public awareness of pet food related issues. This mini-review addresses current pet food sensory analysis literature and discusses future challenges and possibilities.
Pandve, Harshal T.
Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture – further endangering food security – to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate C...
Full Text Available Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.
Weaver, Connie M; Dwyer, Johanna; Fulgoni, Victor L; King, Janet C; Leveille, Gilbert A; MacDonald, Ruth S; Ordovas, Jose; Schnakenberg, David
Both fresh and processed foods make up vital parts of the food supply. Processed food contributes to both food security (ensuring that sufficient food is available) and nutrition security (ensuring that food quality meets human nutrient needs). This ASN scientific statement focuses on one aspect of processed foods: their nutritional impacts. Specifically, this scientific statement 1) provides an introduction to how processed foods contribute to the health of populations, 2) analyzes the contribution of processed foods to "nutrients to encourage" and "constituents to limit" in the American diet as recommended by the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 3) identifies the responsibilities of various stakeholders in improving the American diet, and 4) reviews emerging technologies and the research needed for a better understanding of the role of processed foods in a healthy diet. Analyses of the NHANES 2003-2008 show that processed foods provide both nutrients to encourage and constituents to limit as specified in the 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Of the nutrients to encourage, processed foods contributed 55% of dietary fiber, 48% of calcium, 43% of potassium, 34% of vitamin D, 64% of iron, 65% of folate, and 46% of vitamin B-12. Of the constituents to limit, processed foods contributed 57% of energy, 52% of saturated fat, 75% of added sugars, and 57% of sodium. Diets are more likely to meet food guidance recommendations if nutrient-dense foods, either processed or not, are selected. Nutrition and food science professionals, the food industry, and other stakeholders can help to improve the diets of Americans by providing a nutritious food supply that is safe, enjoyable, affordable, and sustainable by communicating effectively and accurately with each other and by working together to improve the overall knowledge of consumers.
Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.
Broad areas of East Africa face chronic water and agricultural insecurity. Over the last decade, the region has experienced frequent drought events leading to food security emergencies and even famine in Somalia in 2011. The impact of these drought events, associated with recent declines in rainfall during major growing seasons, has been particularly severe due to the high vulnerability of subsistence agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods, rapid population growth, and the limited availability of resources for agricultural development and climate change adaptation. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded activity that brings together international, regional and national partners to provide timely and rigorous early warning and food security information in Africa and other regions of the developing world. To assist USAID with planning agricultural development strategies over the next ten years in East Africa, FEWS NET is partnering with climate scientists and adaptation specialists at regional institutions to study and assess future changes in precipitation and temperature in light of global climate change, natural climate variability, and their related impacts on agricultural and water security in the region. The overarching objective of this study is to provide future scenarios of food and water security (as estimated by trends in soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff) for East Africa. We do so by following two approaches: Constructed Analogs and the Composite Delta Method. In the first approach we downscaled climate projections (precipitation and temperature projections) of long-term Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) experiments over (a) historical (1850-2005) and (b) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (2006-2030) periods. Current climate is characterized by two ENSO modes, the intensity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the strength
Verhagen, A.; Neijenhuis, F.; Jarvis, T.; Jackson, L.; Caron, P.; Lipper, L.; Fernandes, E.; Entsuah-Mensa, R.; Vermeulen, S.
Climate change fundamentally shifts the agricultural development agenda. Changing temperature and precipitation, sea level rise, and the rising frequency of extreme climate events will significantly reduce global food production in this century unless action is taken. Major investments, private and
Checkley, David M.; Asch, Rebecca G.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.
Anchovy and sardine populated productive ocean regions over hundreds of thousands of years under a naturally varying climate, and are now subject to climate change of equal or greater magnitude occurring over decades to centuries. We hypothesize that anchovy and sardine populations are limited in size by the supply of nitrogen from outside their habitats originating from upwelling, mixing, and rivers. Projections of the responses of anchovy and sardine to climate change rely on a range of model types and consideration of the effects of climate on lower trophic levels, the effects of fishing on higher trophic levels, and the traits of these two types of fish. Distribution, phenology, nutrient supply, plankton composition and production, habitat compression, fishing, and acclimation and adaptation may be affected by ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and altered hydrology. Observations of populations and evaluation of model skill are essential to resolve the effects of climate change on these fish.
Yamaguchi, Ryuji; Hwang, Lucy Sun
By using the ILSI network in Asia, we are holding a session focused on food safety programs in several Asian areas. In view of the external environment, it is expected to impact the global food system in the near future, including the rapid increase in food demand and in public health services due to population growth, as well as the threats to biosecurity and food safety due to the rapid globalization of the food trade. Facilitating effective information sharing holds promise for the activation of the food industry. At this session, Prof. Hwang shares the current situation of Food Safety and Sanitation Regulations in Taiwan. Dr. Liu provides a talk on the role of risk assessment in food regulatory control focused on aluminum-containing food additives in China. After the JECFA evaluation of aluminum-containing food additives in 2011, each country has carried out risk assessment based on dietary intake surveys. Ms. Chan reports on the activities of a working group on Food Standards Harmonization in ASEAN. She also explains that the ILSI Southeast Asia Region has actively supported the various ASEAN Working Groups in utilizing science to harmonize food standards. Prof. Park provides current research activities in Korea focused on the effect of climate change on food safety. Climate change is generally seen as having a negative impact on food security, particularly in developing countries. We use these four presentations as a springboard to vigorous discussion on issues related to Food Safety in Asia.
Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro
Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change.
Brown, M. E.; Hintermann, B.; Higgins, N.
The recent massive increase in food and energy prices in the past five years, coupled with the awareness of the long term challenges of climate change to small holder agriculture in Africa has brought the issue of food security for the world's poorest people to the forefront once again. Asymmetric and limited integration of local commodity markets in West Africa highlights the weak position of Africa's rural countries in the face of climate change and demographic expansion. This paper will describe the functioning of local informal food markets in West African over the past twenty years and evaluate the impact of their limited integration with each other and with global commodity markets. Satellite remote sensing of vegetation has been used as a proxy for agricultural production in economic models to improve prediction of large swings in prices from year to year due to differences in supply. As demand increases, improvements in market functioning will be necessary to counter likely increases in production variability. Increasing Africa's stability in the face of climate change will require investment in agricultural production and transportation infrastructure in order to ensure an affordable flow of food to people in these extremely poor, landlocked countries.
C. G. Cambell
This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past
Darnton-Hill, Ian; Cogill, Bruce
Rising food prices, resulting from the ongoing global economic crisis, fuel price volatility, and climate change, have an adverse impact upon the poor, especially those in food-importing, resource-limited countries. The conventional approach by large organizations has been to advocate for increased staple crop yields of mainly cereals. High food prices are predicted to continue to at least 2015. Past shocks and their known impacts upon nutrition were reviewed. Price instability and increases have long been an existing global problem, which has been exacerbated by recent macroeconomic shocks such as acute emergencies due to war and civil strife, acute climatic events, increase in food prices, fuel price volatility, dysfunction of the global financial systems, long-term climate change, and the emergence of failed states. The FAO estimated that there were 815 million "hungry" people in 2006, with a now additional 75-135 million with increased vulnerability, and currently it is estimated that there are one billion people at risk of food insecurity. The shocks initially compromise maternal and child nutrition, mainly through a reduction in dietary quality and an increase in micronutrient deficiencies and concomitant increases in infectious disease morbidity and mortality. A further reduction in the quantity of diet may follow with greater underweight and wasting. Recent macroeconomic shocks have greatly increased the number of people who are vulnerable to hunger in developing countries. Nutritional surveillance systems need to be strengthened and expanded to inform policy decisions.
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Food insecurity is given an operational definition: the probability of food-grain consumption in developing countries falling below a desired level due to a fixed upper limit on the food import bill they can afford, and an unfavorable combination of poor harvests and world food-grain prices. The author argues that food security should not be made contingent upon arrangements for worldwide food-grain supply stabilization. Rather, it is suggested that food security could be attained through a food-import-bill insurance (FIBI) scheme. Alternatively, food security could be attained by a combination of a financial scheme and a grain buffer stock in or on behalf of the developing countries. The paper discusses the specific measures required to implement these proposals and shows that the resource capacity of the international community is sufficient to carry them out.
Oexle, Nathalie; Barnes, Timothy L; Blake, Christine E; Bell, Bethany A; Liese, Angela D
Recent nutritional and public health research has focused on how the availability of various types of food in a person's immediate area or neighborhood influences his or her food choices and eating habits. It has been theorized that people living in areas with a wealth of unhealthy fast-food options may show higher levels of fast-food consumption, a factor that often coincides with being overweight or obese. However, measuring food availability in a particular area is difficult to achieve consistently: there may be differences in the strict physical locations of food options as compared to how individuals perceive their personal food availability, and various studies may use either one or both of these measures. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between weekly fast-food consumption and both a person's perceived availability of fast-food and an objective measure of fast-food presence - Geographic Information Systems (GIS) - within that person's neighborhood. A randomly selected population-based sample of eight counties in South Carolina was used to conduct a cross-sectional telephone survey assessing self-report fast-food consumption and perceived availability of fast food. GIS was used to determine the actual number of fast-food outlets within each participant's neighborhood. Using multinomial logistic regression analyses, we found that neither perceived availability nor GIS-based presence of fast-food was significantly associated with weekly fast-food consumption. Our findings indicate that availability might not be the dominant factor influencing fast-food consumption. We recommend using subjective availability measures and considering individual characteristics that could influence both perceived availability of fast food and its impact on fast-food consumption. If replicated, our findings suggest that interventions aimed at reducing fast-food consumption by limiting neighborhood fast-food availability might not be completely effective.
Agricultural biodiversity, food security and climate change: a call for research and international collaboration.; Biodiversidad agricola, seguridad alimentaria y cambio climatico: una llamada a la investigacion y a la colaboracion internacional
Hodgkin, T.; Frison, E.; Fanzo, J.; Lopez Noriega, I.
The events of these last years have shown that there are still major problems in the global food supply and food security and food prices can change very quickly. Therefore the reduction of food stocks, such as poor harvests, competition with bio fuels production, land grabbing and speculation have been identified as causing this situation. whatever the cause, the crisis has shown how far we are to achieve genuine food security. (Author) 31 refs.
Nkasiobi Silas Oguzor Provost
Full Text Available African food production is in crisis. Today, despite Africa’s vast physical and climatic potentials to produce food, most African States depend on food importation. Africa’s capacity to deal with its food battles is severely constrained by its political instability, its early stage of scientific and institutional development, and a rapidly changing and complex global environment. In Nigeria and in most developing economies, there is a fundamental lack of political commitment to come grips with poverty, malnutrition and access to food. Because of these barriers, traditional economics is a rather limited tool to understand food production and other related variables. Poverty, hunger, malnutrition, famine and starvation in developing economies are just as much a function of political, macroeconomic, and institutional barriers as lack of technology.Illustrations from the agrarian chaos in Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Chad and others are too numerous to conclude otherwise. The aim of this paper is to determine and analyze economics incentives and strategies, which could stimulate commercial agriculture in Nigeria. The analysis is based on the premise that the form of production organization in Nigerian agriculture is the major constraint to commercialization. The paper concludes that output price subsidy is the over-riding factor in the commercialization of agriculture in Nigeria.
Nkasiobi Silas Oguzor
Full Text Available African food production is in crisis. Today, despite Africa’s vast physical and climatic potentials to produce food, most African States depend on food importation. Africa’s capacity to deal with its food