Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

1994-01-01

This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jako Volschenk

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Tourism and its “midwife”, aviation, are transnational sectors exposed to global uncertainties. This scenario-building exercise considers a specific subset of these uncertainties, namely the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on long-haul tourism (LHT, with a 2050 horizon. The basic problematique is that unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions could have far-reaching impacts — either on the market for future growth of LHT, or the natural ecosystem on which tourism depends. Following an intuitive-logic approach to scenario-building, three meta-level scenarios that can be regarded as “possible” futures for the evolution of LHT are described. Two of these, i.e., the “grim reaper” and the “fallen angel” scenarios, are undesirable. The “green lantern” scenario represents the desired future. Long-haul tourist destinations should heed the early warning signals identified in the scenario narratives, and contribute towards realising the desired future. They should further guard against being passive victims if the feared scenarios materialise, by adapting, repositioning early upon reading the signposts, hedging against risks, and seizing new opportunities.

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

1995-01-01

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

2006-01-01

Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

The new socio-economic scenarios for climate change research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

2013-01-01

The scientific community is developing a new generation of scenarios to inform the choices we have to make when it comes to responding to climate change. This new generation of scenarios integrates more fully the mechanisms that regulate climate and provides insights to spatial and temporal resolutions unexplored in previous exercises. In addition, it gives a framework for integrating explicit climate policies for mitigation and adaptation, which allows assessing the benefits and costs of climate policies in different socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it introduces a new way of working that strengthens the collaboration between different research communities on climate change. (authors)

Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Viola, F., E-mail: francesco.viola77@unipa.it; Francipane, A.; Caracciolo, D.; Pumo, D.; La Loggia, G.; Noto, L.V.

2016-02-15

ABSTRACT: The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed. - Highlights: • This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration. • A simple conceptual hydrological model and GCMs realizations have been coupled. • Radical shift and shape

Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viola, F.; Francipane, A.; Caracciolo, D.; Pumo, D.; La Loggia, G.; Noto, L.V.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT: The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed. - Highlights: • This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration. • A simple conceptual hydrological model and GCMs realizations have been coupled. • Radical shift and shape

Development of climate change scenarios to evaluate the impacts of temperature change on the energy demand in south of Quebec

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chamount, D.

2008-01-01

'Full text': In year 2000, Hydro-Quebec Distribution began to integrate temperature change in the planning of Quebec energy demand. With the evolution of knowledge in climate change science and the availability of larger ensemble of climate projections from GCMs (Global Climate Model), the methodology has progressively improved and uncertainties are now more efficiently taken into account. Inclusion of temperature evolution in the estimation of energy demand covers two issues : 1) the adjustment of climate normals as reference values and 2) integration of the climate change scenario in long term planning (horizon 2040). Recently, the analysis of an ensemble of climate simulations produced from 17 different GCMs forced by 3 emissions scenarios for a total of 39 projections, enabled these two aspects to be effectively addressed. Following the analysis the use of linear temperature increase on a monthly basis is recommended for the needs of addressing climate change impacts on energy demand. Higher slope values are obtained during winter while lower ones are present in summer. Heating and cooling degree days have then been calculated for an optimistic, median and pessimistic climate change scenario to evaluate economic impacts of temperature change on three energy sources: hydro-power, natural gas and heating oil. The evaluation was carried out taking into account not only the temperature change scenario but demographical and economical scenarios as well. Obviously, temperature increase will cause opposite effects for the winter and summer seasons (reducing energy demand for heating purpose during winter while increasing cooling demand during summer). However, comparing energy sources, combustibles might see a more important decrease than hydro-power. Overall, the net effect of temperature change on energy demand is quite small: a reduction of 2 to 3% is projected. (author)

Forecasting the evolution in the mixing regime of a deep subalpine lake under climate change scenarios through numerical modelling (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)

Science.gov (United States)

Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Sibilla, Stefano; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia

2018-01-01

The impact of air temperature rise is eminent for the large deep lakes in the Italian subalpine district, climate change being caused there by both natural phenomena and anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) emissions. These oligomictic lakes are experiencing a decrease in the frequency of winter full turnover and an intensification of stability. As a result, hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations are decreasing and nutrients are accumulating in bottom water, with effects on the whole ecosystem functioning. Forecasting the future evolution of the mixing pattern is relevant to assess if a reduction in GHG releases would be able to revert such processes. The study focuses on Lake Maggiore, for which the thermal structure evolution under climate change in the 2016-2085 period was assessed through numerical simulations, performed with the General Lake Model (GLM). Different prospects of regional air temperature rise were considered, given by the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011. Multiple realisations were performed for each scenario to obtain robust statistical predictions, adopting random series of meteorological data produced with the Vector-Autoregressive Weather Generator (VG). Results show that a reversion in the increasing thermal stability would be possible only if global GHG emissions started to be reduced by 2020, allowing an equilibrium mixing regime to be restored by the end of the twenty-first century. Otherwise, persistent lack of complete-mixing, severe water warming and extensive effects on water quality are to be expected for the centuries to come. These projections can be extended to the other lakes in the subalpine district.

Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

2016-04-01

There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

2011-09-01

It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

2009-01-01

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

Science.gov (United States)

Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

2013-04-01

For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

Evolution of extreme rainfall in France with a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Veysseire, Jean-Michel; Gouget, Viviane; Neppel, Luc; Tramblay, Yves; Carreau, Julie

2015-01-01

This paper focuses a synthesis of the works led within the framework of the French project ANR/Extraflo on the evolution of the daily (and infra daily) extreme rainfall in France. An important dataset of more than 900 series was used. It was shown that a majority of series presented a not significant upward trend in particular in Mediterranean area, in relation with various recent exceptional extreme events. An interesting way to characterize this evolution consists in identifying climatic co-variables associated to heavy rainfall events (weather patterns, average temperatures, flow of humidity) and in taking into account them with a non stationary POT model. The application of this method with climatic projections under scenario A2 from IPCC could lead to a possible increase on extreme precipitation quantiles on the horizon 2070. (authors)

Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Welsch, Daniel L.; Jack Cosby, B.; Hornberger, George M.

2006-01-01

Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO 2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO 2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 μeq L - 1 ) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 μeq L - 1 ). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

Science.gov (United States)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate

Black Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet and food security. Bio-climate Scenarios in bananas under the effect of climate change in Ciego de Avila, Cuba

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hernández-Mansilla Alexis Augusto

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The negative evidence of climate change of high importance for the future agricultural production and the need of food sovereignty and security, impose to develop research to predict the phenology of plants and their pests, mainly those of economic importance. The aim of this work is to interpret the epidemiological behavior of the black Sigatoka disease (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet in banana for the years 2020 and 2025 under the effects of climate change in Ciego de Avila. There were made bioclimatic scenarios using daily data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall of 14 days generated by the Regional Climatic Model "PRECIS Caribbean" with boundary conditions of the global model ECHAM - 4 for future climate projections under scenarios of emission A2 and B2. The key indicators of this disease: "Sum of Speed ​​" and the "Evolution state" of 4 leaves were obtained. The results show Sums speeds above 11000 thermo-physiological units, as well as a continuous and progressive increase in the "Evolution State" with values above 500 units during the analyzed years. We infers will occur an increase in the number of treatments and the plant protection cost, which implies the need to draw integrated management measures that include agro-ecological principles, search for resistant varieties to replace those susceptible to the disease that are currently used and strengthen the climate change adaptation and the resilience in the agricultural ecosystem.

The evolution of extreme precipitations in high resolution scenarios over France

Science.gov (United States)

Colin, J.; Déqué, M.; Somot, S.

2009-09-01

and that both regional and global simulations were run at the same resolution, ARP50 can be regarded as a reference with which FRA50, EUR50 and EUR50-SN should each be compared. After an analysis of the differences between the regional simulations and ARP50 in annual and seasonal mean, we focus on the representation of rainfall extremes comparing two dimensional fields of various index inspired from STARDEX and quantile-quantile plots. The results show a good agreement with the ARP50 reference for all three regional simulations and little differences are found between them. This result indicates that the use of small domains is not significantly detrimental to the modelling of extreme precipitation events. It also shows that the spectral nudging technique has no detrimental effect on the extreme precipitation. Therefore, high resolution scenarios performed on a relatively small domain such as the ones run for SCAMPEI, can be regarded as good tools to explore their possible evolution in the future climate. Preliminary results on the response of precipitation extremes over South-East France are given.

VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate...

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

2015-01-01

Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

2016-02-01

This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

Science.gov (United States)

Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

2010-03-01

A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

2012-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

1991-01-01

The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access

Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water manegement in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, Jacob Cornelis Jan

2015-01-01

Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

2010-05-01

The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are

Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2003-01-01

Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. J. Coulthard

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn, affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance, infrastructure resilience, channel pattern, and habitat status as well as sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes. Previous research modelling climatic influences on geomorphic changes has been limited by how climate variability and change are represented by downscaling from global or regional climate models. Furthermore, the non-linearity of the climatic, hydrological and geomorphic systems involved generate large uncertainties at each stage of the modelling process creating an uncertainty "cascade".

This study integrates state-of-the-art approaches from the climate change and geomorphic communities to address these issues in a probabilistic modelling study of the Swale catchment, UK. The UKCP09 weather generator is used to simulate hourly rainfall for the baseline and climate change scenarios up to 2099, and used to drive the CAESAR landscape evolution model to simulate geomorphic change. Results show that winter rainfall is projected to increase, with larger increases at the extremes. The impact of the increasing rainfall is amplified through the translation into catchment runoff and in turn sediment yield with a 100% increase in catchment mean sediment yield predicted between the baseline and the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario. Significant increases are shown between all climate change scenarios and baseline values. Analysis of extreme events also shows the amplification effect from rainfall to sediment delivery with even greater amplification associated with higher return period events. Furthermore, for the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario, sediment discharges from 50-yr

Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-04-01

Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the

simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

The effects of climate change on rice production and yield cannot be overlooked in finding measures to increase production and yield. The CERES-Rice (Ver. 4.0) model was calibrated and evaluated for use in simulating rice yields under different climate change scenarios in Ghana using data from the Anum Valley ...

Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

2005-01-01

Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

2017-01-01

This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

Equity in climate-economy scenarios: the importance of subnational income distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baer, Paul

2009-01-01

It is widely accepted that climate change raises equity considerations, and this has been addressed in various explicit and implicit ways in scenario-based climate and climate-policy research. In this paper I look in particular at the IPCC's well-known 'Special Report on Emissions Scenarios', in which equity is primarily quantified as the distribution of income between countries, and highlight the need for more explicit treatment of equity both within and across national borders. I apply an existing method for modeling subnational income distributions and show that this affects the results of welfare calculations of the type used in economic analyses of climate policy. Additionally, I suggest ways in which this kind of equity analysis could be applied to questions that address broader considerations of climate policy and development, such as burden sharing in the allocation of obligations, and conclude with remarks that frame the scenario development process in the context of what I call 'the contested storyline of the present'.

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

2016-03-01

Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riitta Molarius

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company’s continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company’s adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying “safety margins” in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

Climate sensitivity of DSSAT under different agriculture practice scenarios in China

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, L.; Robock, A.

2014-12-01

Crop yields are sensitive to both agricultural practice and climate changes. Under different agricultural practice scenarios, crop yield may have different climate sensitivities. Since it is important to understand how future climate changes affect agriculture productivity and what the potential adaptation strategies would be to compensate for possible negative impacts on crop production, we performed experiments to study climate sensitivity under different agricultural practice scenarios for rice, maize and wheat in the top four production provinces in China using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. The agricultural practice scenarios include four categories: different amounts of nitrogen fertilizer or no nitrogen stress; irrigation turned on or off, or no water stress; all possible seeds in the DSSAT cultivar data base; and different planting dates. For the climate sensitivity test, the control climate is from 1998 to 2007, and we individually modify four climate variables: daily maximum and minimum temperature by +2 °C and -2 °C, daily precipitation by +20% and -20%, and daily solar radiation by + 20% and -20%. With more nitrogen fertilizer applied, crops are more sensitive to temperature changes as well as precipitation changes because of their release from nitrogen limitation. With irrigation turned on, crop yield sensitivity to temperature decreases in most of the regions depending on the amount of the local precipitation, since more water is available and soil temperature varies less with higher soil moisture. Those results indicate that there could be possible agriculture adaptation strategies under certain future climate scenarios. For example, increasing nitrogen fertilizer usage by a certain amount might compensate for the negative impact on crop yield from climate changes. However, since crops are more sensitive to climate changes when there is more nitrogen fertilizer applied, if the climate changes are

Key drivers and economic consequences of high-end climate scenarios: uncertainties and risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin

2015-01-01

The consequences of high-end climate scenarios and the risks of extreme events involve a number of critical assumptions and methodological challenges related to key uncertainties in climate scenarios and modelling, impact analysis, and economics. A methodological framework for integrated analysis...... of extreme events increase beyond scaling, and in combination with economic assumptions we find a very wide range of risk estimates for urban precipitation events. A sensitivity analysis addresses 32 combinations of climate scenarios, damage cost curve approaches, and economic assumptions, including risk...... aversion and equity represented by discount rates. Major impacts of alternative assumptions are investigated. As a result, this study demonstrates that in terms of decision making the actual expectations concerning future climate scenarios and the economic assumptions applied are very important...

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

2010-05-01

In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components

Costa Rica Rainfall in Future Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo Rodriguez, R. A., Sr.; Amador, J. A.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.

2017-12-01

Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables, using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal temperature range (°C) for the periods 1950-2005 and 2006-2100 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data. Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of the climate change in the region and also suggests future drying conditions.

VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient...

The evolution of climatic niches in squamate reptiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Pie, Marcio R; Campos, Leonardo L F; Meyer, Andreas L S; Duran, Andressa

2017-07-12

Despite the remarkable diversity found in squamate reptiles, most of their species tend to be found in warm/dry environments, suggesting that climatic requirements played a crucial role in their diversification, yet little is known about the evolution of their climatic niches. In this study, we integrate climatic information associated with the geographical distribution of 1882 squamate species and their phylogenetic relationships to investigate the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in squamates, both over time and among lineages. We found that changes in climatic niche dynamics were pronounced over their recent squamate evolutionary history, and we identified extensive evidence for rate heterogeneity in squamate climatic niche evolution. Most rate shifts involved accelerations, particularly over the past 50 Myr. Most squamates occupy similar regions of the climatic niche space, with only a few lineages diversifying into colder and humid climatic conditions. The changes from arid to mesic conditions in some regions of the globe may have provided opportunities for climatic niche evolution, although most lineages tended to remain near their ancestral niche. Variation in rates of climatic niche evolution seems common, particularly in response to the availability of new climatic conditions over evolutionary time. © 2017 The Author(s).

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O'Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A; Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M

2011-01-01

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O' Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M, E-mail: bsander@ucar.edu [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

2011-07-15

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulme, Mike; Dessai, Suraje

2008-01-01

Scenarios may be understood as products and/or processes. Viewing scenario exercises as productive tends to emphasize their tangibility: scenario products may acquire value unrelated to the processes of their creation. Viewing scenario exercises as procedural tends to emphasize their modes of formation: the process of constructing scenarios may have benefits irrespective of the value of ensuing products. These two framings yield different expectations about how one might evaluate the 'success' or otherwise of scenario exercises. We illustrate three approaches to evaluating the success or otherwise of scenarios using the example of the series of national UK climate scenarios published between 1991 and 2002. These are: predictive success (has the future turned out as envisaged?), decision success (have 'good' decisions subsequently been made?) and learning success (have scenarios proved engaging and enabled learning?). We reflect on the different ways the 'success' of national climate scenarios might be evaluated and on the relationship between the productive and procedural dimensions of scenario exercises.

Regional climate change scenarios for México

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez-Salvador, Begoña; Sánchez, O.; Gay, C.

In this paper we present the regional climate change scenarios that were used for the assessment of the potential impacts in México on agriculture, livestock, forestry, hydrological resources as well as on human settlements and biodiversity. Those studies were developed for the Fourth Communication

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

2009-01-01

This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Vlahogianni, Eleni I.

2018-06-01

A methodological framework based on nonlinear recurrence analysis is proposed to examine the historical data evolution of extremes of maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature patterns over time under different climate scenarios. The methodology is based on both historical data and atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) produced climate scenarios for the periods 1961-2000 and 2061-2100 which correspond to 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 scenarios. Historical data were derived from the actual daily observations coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). The dynamics of the temperature was reconstructed in the phase-space from the time series of temperatures. The statistically comparing different temperature patterns were based on some discriminating statistics obtained by the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). Moreover, the bootstrap method of Schinkel et al. (2009) was adopted to calculate the confidence bounds of RQA parameters based on a structural preserving resampling. The overall methodology was implemented to the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece. The results reveal substantial similarities between the historical maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature statistical patterns and their confidence bounds, as well as the maximum and minimum temperature patterns in evolution under the 2 × CO2 scenario. A significant variability and non-stationary behaviour characterizes all climate series analyzed. Fundamental differences are produced from the historical and maximum 1 × CO2 scenarios, the maximum 1 × CO2 and minimum 1 × CO2 scenarios, as well as the confidence bounds for the two CO2 scenarios. The 2 × CO2 scenario reflects the strongest shifts in intensity, duration and frequency in temperature patterns. Such transitions can help the scientists and policy makers to understand the effects of extreme temperature changes on water resources, economic development, and health of ecosystems and hence to proceed to

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2014-09-15

Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

2008-07-01

In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

2010-12-01

Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

Science.gov (United States)

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Lauren A

2015-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lauren A Freeman

Full Text Available Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodoo, Ambrose; Gustavsson, Leif

2016-01-01

In this study, the extent to which different climate scenarios influence overheating risk, energy use and peak loads for space conditioning of district heated multi-storey buildings in Sweden are explored. Furthermore, the effectiveness of different overheating control measures and the implications of different electricity supply options for space cooling and ventilation are investigated. The analysis is based on buildings with different architectural and energy efficiency configurations including a prefab concrete-frame, a massive timber-frame and a light timber-frame building. Thermal performance of the buildings under low and high Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenarios for 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 are analysed and compared to that under historical climate of 1961–1990 and recent climate of 1996–2005. The study is based on a bottom-up methodology and includes detailed hour-by-hour energy balance and systems analyses. The results show significant changes in the buildings’ thermal performance under the future climate scenarios, relative to the historical and recent climates. Heating demand decreased significantly while cooling demand and overheating risk increased considerably with the future climate scenarios, for all buildings. In contrast to the cooling demand, the relative changes in heating demand of the buildings under the future climate scenarios are somewhat similar. The changes in the space conditioning demands and overheating risk vary for the buildings. Overheating risk was found to be slightly higher for the massive-frame building and slightly lower for the light-frame building. - Highlights: • We analysed thermal performance of buildings under different climate scenarios. • Our analysis is based on historical, recent and projected future climate datasets. • The buildings' thermal performance changed notably under future climate scenarios. • The extent of the changes is influenced by the buildings' energy efficiency

Uncertainties in climate change scenarios for the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dubrovský, Martin; Nemešová, Ivana; Kalvová, J.

2005-01-01

Roč. 29, - (2005), s. 139-156 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA521/02/0827; GA MŽP(CZ) SM/640/18/03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Climate change scenarios * Uncertainty analysis * Global climate models * Pattern scaling Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy Impact factor: 1.358, year: 2005

Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

2007-03-26

We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

Long-term evolution of the Campine area in Northern Belgium: past and expected future evolution of tectonics and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Craen, M.; Beerten, K.; Brassinnes, S.; Wouters, L.

2012-01-01

time frame of 1 Ma. Finally, as igneous activity has been absent in the past 50 Ma, future igneous activity is considered to be very unlikely in the Campine. Within the time frame of 1 Ma, climate evolution may also significantly influence the geomorphology and hydrology of the Campine area. Palaeo-climate reconstructions of the Quaternary climate and of its main forcings may allow to draw the guidelines of future climate changes. Overall, the Quaternary is characterised by a marked climatic instability, oscillating from warm interglacial periods to cold glacial periods, and this alternation is expected to continue in the future. However, it is expected that the next glaciation will be delayed and will be less severe due to the increased atmospheric CO 2 from human activities; the impact of fossil fuel contribution will become smaller after 500 ka in favour of natural variations. A useful source of information on future climates in relation to radioactive waste disposal in longer time frames is available from the BIOCLIM project. It is shown that future climate scenarios are extremely dependent on the CO 2 scenarios that are used in the calculations. Hence, the precise timing of glacial/interglacial periods and the volume of ice caps is considerably different for various climate simulations, especially in the period 0-600 ka AP. We therefore present a spectrum of representative climate conditions of warm and cold periods for the Campine area for the next 1 Ma. These include a warm climate with and without a marine transgression, a cold climate with and without permafrost, and the presence of an ice sheet advancing over NE-Belgium, although the latter has a very low likelihood. Although the exact timing of these climate conditions is impossible to predict, an indication is given with respect to relevant time frames. Finally, an evaluation is made of the likelihood of occurrence of each considered climate condition for the relevant time frames

Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-04-01

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byman H. Hamududu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Jake M

2013-09-22

A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

1988-07-01

In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

Climate scenarios for semi-arid and sub-humid regions. A comparison of climate scenarios for the dryland regions, in West Africa from 1990 to 2050

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Born GJ; Schaeffer M; Leemans R; NOP

2001-01-01

The identification of climate scenarios for dryland areas in Sub-Saharan West Africa is part of a project to assess the impact of climate change on water availability, agriculture and food security in drylands (ICCD-project). The project is financed by Netherlands Research Programme on Global Air

Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2015-01-01

This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

Bi-national Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin climate change and hydrologic scenarios report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavender, B.; Smith, J.V.; Koshida, G.; Mortsch, L.D. [eds.

1998-09-01

Climate experts in government, industry and academic institutions have put together a national assessment of how climate change will affect Canadians and their social, biological and economic environment over the next century. This volume documents the impacts and implications of climate change on the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin, and provides an analysis and assessment of various climate and hydrologic scenarios used for the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Basin Project. As part of the analysis and assessment, results from the Canadian Climate Centre second-generation General Circulation Model and four transposition scenarios for both climate and hydrological resources are reviewed. The objective is to provide an indication of sensitivities and vulnerabilities of the region to climate, with a view to improve adaptation to potential climate changes. 25 tabs., 26 figs. figs.

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

Climate change and its potential impact on mechanical, hydraulic and chemical conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naslund, J.O.

2009-01-01

The strategy for managing climate related conditions in SKB ' s safety assessments are based on the notion that it is not possible to predict climate in a 100 000-year time perspective. Instead, the approach in the SR-Can safety assessment was to identify and analyse both moderate climate evolutions as well as extremes within which the climate in Scandinavia may vary. To this end, knowledge on general climate variations in Scandinavia was used to identify characteristic climate domains which in turn were used to build a number of selected climate scenarios. The relevant climate domains for the Forsmark and Laxemar sites in the 100 000-year time perspective are; 1) a temperate climate domain, 2) a peri-glacial climate domain, and 3) a glacial climate domain. Also submerged/non-submerged conditions at the sites are of importance. In the SR-Can safety assessment several climate scenarios were investigated, including a reference evolution based on a repetition of reconstructed conditions for last glacial cycle (the Weichselian glaciation and the Holocene interglacial). For this reconstruction, extensive numerical simulations of ice sheets, isostatic changes, and permafrost were conducted. The resulting scenario showed site-specific timing and duration of the three climate domains and submerged periods for the full glacial cycle. This scenario is not a prediction of a future climate evolution. Instead it is one example of a future evolution that in a realistic and consistent way covers all relevant climate related changes that can be expected in a 100 000-year time perspective. Subsequently, this scenario formed the basis for the construction of additional climate scenarios that were used to analyse the effects of more extreme climate evolutions than during the last glacial cycle. Examples of complementary scenarios are a warmer and wetter climate scenario caused by an increased greenhouse effect, and colder scenarios with deeper permafrost or thicker ice sheets than in

Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Lavaysse

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km. Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40 and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios

Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deque, M

2007-07-01

This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

The climatic scenario of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deque, M.

2007-01-01

This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gasparrini, A.; Guo, Y.; Sera, F.; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.; Huber, V.; Tong, S.; Coelho, M. S. Z. S.; Saldiva, P. H. N.; Lavigne, E.; Correa, P.M.; Ortega, N. V.; Kan, H.; Osorio, S.; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, J.J.K.; Ryti, N.R.I.; Pascal, M.; Goodman, P.G.; Zeka, A.; Michelozzi, P.; Scortichini, M.; Hashizume, M.; Honda, Y.; Hurtado-Diaz, M.; Cruz, J.C.; Seposo, X.; Kim, H.; Tobias, A.; Iñiguez, C.; Forsberg, B.; Åström, D.O.; Ragettli, M.S.; Guo, Y.L.; Wu, Ch.; Zanobetti, A.; Schwartz, J.; Bell, M.L.; Dang, T.N.; Van, D.D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Hajat, S.; Haines, A.; Armstrong, B.

2017-01-01

Roč. 1, č. 9 (2017), e360-e367 ISSN 2542-5196 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-22000S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : climate change scenarios * mortality Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Climatic research https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519617301560#!

The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cariolle, D.

1999-01-01

This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

When climate twitches, evolution takes great leaps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerr, R.A.

1992-01-01

Earth's climate system has ridden a slow roller coaster for the past 60 million years. It warmed gradually until about 53 million years ago, reaching a peak that brought crocodiles to northern Canada; then it entered a long, undulating downgrade toward the ice-age world of the past few million years. Because the same span of time brought major evolutionary changes, including the rise of modern mammals, paleontologists have long assumed that these slow temperature changes helped spur the processes of evolution. But recent findings have suggested that another, more potent mechanisms was also at work: Abrupt climate excursions, superimposed on these long-term trends, have now been linked to rapid periods of mammal evolution. The evidence for short, sharp evolutionary shocks comes from studies of a pair of mirror-image climate shifts at opposite ends of the Eocene epoch, 55 million and 33.5 million years ago. In both cases, researchers studying the record of climate preserved in sea-floor sediments have found that a gradual climate change-warming in the first case, cooling in the second - suddenly steepened into a short-lived pulse of extreme warming or cooling. The short time scale of these events and their clear coincidence with turning points in the evolution of mammals are providing the tightest links yet between global climate change and evolution on land

Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

1994-01-01

This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

Description of the default climate scenario for impact projects in NRP-II

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verweij W; Viner D; NOP

2001-01-01

The Dutch National Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP) is funding strategic research on climate change. One of the central research themes focuses on potential impacts of climate change. In general, results of impact projects may differ markedly, depending on input of scenario data for

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Scalability of regional climate change in Europe for high-end scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, O. B.; Yang, S.; Boberg, F.

2015-01-01

With the help of a simulation using the global circulation model (GCM) EC-Earth, downscaled over Europe with the regional model DMI-HIRHAM5 at a 25 km grid point distance, we investigated regional climate change corresponding to 6°C of global warming to investigate whether regional climate change...... are close to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. We investigated the extent to which pattern scaling holds, i.e. the approximation that the amplitude of any climate change will be approximately proportional to the amount of global warming. We address this question through a comparison of climate change results...... from downscaling simulations over the same integration domain, but for different driving and regional models and scenarios, mostly from the EU ENSEMBLES project. For almost all quantities investigated, pattern scaling seemed to apply to the 6° simulation. This indicates that the single 6° simulation...

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Albert

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Dairaku, K.

2017-12-01

The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

System Dynamics based Dengue modeling environment to simulate evolution of Dengue infection under different climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Anwar, R.; Khan, R.; Usmani, M.; Colwell, R. R.; Jutla, A.

2017-12-01

Vector borne infectious diseases such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya remain a public health threat. An estimate of the World Health Organization (WHO) suggests that about 2.5 billion people, representing ca. 40% of human population,are at increased risk of dengue; with more than 100 million infection cases every year. Vector-borne infections cannot be eradicated since disease causing pathogens survive in the environment. Over the last few decades dengue infection has been reported in more than 100 countries and is expanding geographically. Female Ae. Aegypti mosquito, the daytime active and a major vector for dengue virus, is associated with urban population density and regional climatic processes. However, mathematical quantification of relationships on abundance of vectors and climatic processes remain a challenge, particularly in regions where such data are not routinely collected. Here, using system dynamics based feedback mechanism, an algorithm integrating knowledge from entomological, meteorological and epidemiological processes is developed that has potential to provide ensemble simulations on risk of occurrence of dengue infection in human population. Using dataset from satellite remote sensing, the algorithm was calibrated and validated using actual dengue case data of Iquitos, Peru. We will show results on model capabilities in capturing initiation and peak in the observed time series. In addition, results from several simulation scenarios under different climatic conditions will be discussed.

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Climate change in high definition : scenarios for impacts and adaptation research : conference proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This conference provided a forum to review information and tools to conduct climate change impact and adaptation research and assessments. The research community, policy advisors and resource managers reviewed the latest advancements in global and regional climate modeling, climate scenarios, downscaling tools and application of scenarios for decision-making. The new Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCSN) website was also launched at this meeting, which also provided training in Environment Canada's new statistical downscaling tool developed in collaboration with the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau, Terre et Environnement (INRS-ETE). New features of the CCSN were presented along with examples of how information from the network can be applied in specific cases, including assessments of impacts in areas such as human health and water resources. A training session on downscaling with the newly developed Automated Statistical Downscaling (ASD) tool was also provided. The conference featured 19 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Jacinto

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2 adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1 characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2 identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3 identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4 production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes. The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16% in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%. All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Funk, C.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2014-01-01

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will

Heterogeneous Network Evolution Studies for a Dense Urban High Rise Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sanchez, Maria Laura Luque; Maternia, Michal; Vejlgaard, Benny

2014-01-01

This paper studies the capability of Long-Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-A) together with WiFi 802.11ac to accommodate the traffic growths of 80x, 500x and 1000x in a high rise building scenario. It provides a guideline on the configuration of the spectrum and the best deployment options for the ev......This paper studies the capability of Long-Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-A) together with WiFi 802.11ac to accommodate the traffic growths of 80x, 500x and 1000x in a high rise building scenario. It provides a guideline on the configuration of the spectrum and the best deployment options...

Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-07-01

Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

Energy savings in drastic climate change policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isoard, Stephane; Wiesenthal, Tobias

2005-01-01

This paper reports a climate change policy scenario compatible with long-term sustainable objectives set at EU level (6th Environment Action Plan). By setting ambitious targets for GHG emissions reduction by 2030, this normative scenario relies on market-based instruments and flexible mechanisms. The integrated policy that is simulated (i.e. addressing energy, transport, agriculture and environmental impacts) constitutes a key outlook for the next 5-year report of the European Environment Agency (EEA). This scenario highlights what it would take to drastically curb EU GHG emissions and how much it might cost. The findings show that such a 'deep reduction' climate policy could work as a powerful catalyst for (1) substantial energy savings, and (2) promoting sustainable energy systems in the long term. The implications of this policy lever on the energy system are many-fold indeed, e.g. a substantial limitation of total energy demand or significant shifts towards energy and environment-friendly technologies on the supply side. Clear and transparent price signals, which are associated with market-based instruments, appear to be a key factor ensuring sufficient visibility for capital investment in energy efficient and environment-friendly options. Finally it is suggested that market-based policy options, which are prone to lead to win-win situations and are of particular interest from an integrated policy-making perspective, would also significantly benefit from an enhanced energy policy framework

Potential recovery of industrial wood and energy wood raw material in different cutting and climate scenarios for Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaerkkaeinen, Leena; Nuutinen, Tuula; Matala, Juho; Kellomaeki, Seppo; Haerkoenen, Kari

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the simultaneous recovery of industrial wood and raw material for energy wood from cuttings in Finland during the next 50 years. Two cutting scenarios (maximum and sustainable cuttings) and two climate scenarios (current and changing climate) were analysed to determine their impacts on harvesting potential. The analysis was carried out using sample plot and tree data from the ninth National Forest Inventory and a management-oriented large-scale forestry model (MELA) into which the transfer functions based on physiological modelling were incorporated to describe the impacts of climate change. Depending on the climate scenario, the volume of potential recovery of industrial wood in the maximum cutting scenario during the period 2003-2013 varied from 103 to 105 million m 3 a -1 , while the amount of potential energy wood raw material was 35 Tg a -1 . During the period 2043-2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 64 million m 3 a -1 and energy wood raw material 22 Tg a -1 , and in the changing climate scenario, 85 million m 3 a -1 and 29 Tg a -1 , respectively. In the sustainable cutting scenario, depending on the climate scenario used, the potential recovery of industrial wood during the period 2003-2013 varied from 74 to 76 million m 3 a -1 , while the amount of potential energy wood was 25 Tg a -1 . During the period 2043-2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 80 million m 3 a -1 and energy wood raw material 26 Tg a -1 , and in the changing climate scenario, 88 million m 3 a -1 and 29 Tg a -1 , respectively. (author)

Appendix 2. Guide for Running AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation Tools with R in Windows, Version 2.3

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, Nicholas; Ruane, Alexander Clark

2013-01-01

This Guide explains how to create climate series and climate change scenarios by using the AgMip Climate team's methodology as outlined in the AgMIP Guide for Regional Assessment: Handbook of Methods and Procedures. It details how to: install R and the required packages to run the AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation scripts, and create climate scenarios from CMIP5 GCMs using a 30-year baseline daily weather dataset. The Guide also outlines a workflow that can be modified for application to your own climate data.

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2011-11-15

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaagus, J.

1996-01-01

Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

2015-04-01

The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

2011-01-01

In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

Science.gov (United States)

Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

Energy [R]evolution 2010-a sustainable world energy outlook

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teske, S.; Pregger, T.; Simon, S.; Naegler, T.; Graus, W.H.J.; Lins, C.

2011-01-01

The Energy [R]evolution 2010 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios published in 2007 and 2008. It takes up recent trends in global energy demand and production and analyses to which extent this affects chances for achieving climate protection targets. The main target is to

Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

2015-12-01

Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

2014-12-01

Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

Climate change scenarios over the Mediterranean Basin; Scenari di cambiamento climatico sul bacino del Mediterraneo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casaioli, Marco; Sciortino, Maurizio [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dipt. Ambiente

1997-11-01

The results of climatic simulation over the Mediterranean Basin made available by major climate research centres, have been analyzed with the purposes of defining possible future climate scenarios. The validation of modelling results of present climate with observed climatology makes possible to assess capabilities and limitations of the General Circulation Models over the area under consideration. The evaluation of climate change scenarios in conditions of doubling atmospheric concentration of CO 2 gives indications on the expected magnitude of variation of temperature and precipitation. The results available agree to indicate a possible warming of air temperature but as far as concerned precipitation there is still no consensus between the climate projections produced by the different models considered in this study.

Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

2011-12-01

Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

2015-12-01

Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

Streamflow predictions under climate scenarios in the Boulder Creek Watershed at Orodell

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Q.; Williams, M. W.; Livneh, B.

2016-12-01

Mountainous areas have complex geological features and climatic variability, which limit our ability to simulate and predict hydrologic processes, especially in face to a changing climate. Hydrologic models can improve our understanding of land surface water and energy budgets in these regions. In this study, a distributed physically-based hydrologic model is applied to the Boulder Creek Watershed, USA to study streamflow conditions under future climatic scenarios. Model parameters were adjusted using observed streamflow data at 1/16th degree resolution, with a NSE value of 0.69. The results from CMIP5 models can give a general range of streamflow conditions under different climatic scenarios. Two scenarios are being applied, including the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. RCP 8.5 has higher emission concentrations than RCP 4.5, but not very significant in the period of study. Using pair t-test and Mann-Whitney test at specific grid cells to compare modeled and observed climate data, four CMIP5 models were chosen to predict streamflow from 2010 to 2025. Of the four models, two models predicted increased precipitation, while the other two models predicted decreased precipitation, and the four models predicted increased minimum and maximum temperature in RCP 4.5. Average streamflow decreased by 2% 14%, while maximum SWE varies from -7% to +210% from 2010 to 2025, relative to 2006 to 2010. In RCP 8.5, three models predicted increased precipitation, while the other one model predicted decreased precipitation, and the four models predicted increased maximum and minimum temperature. Besides one model, the other three models predicted increased average streamflow by 3.5% 32%, which results from the higher increasing magnitude in precipitation. Maximum SWE varies by 6% 55% higher than that from 2006 to 2010. This study shows that average daily maximum and minimum temperature will increase toward 2025 from different climate models, while average streamflow will decrease in RCP 4

Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

Science.gov (United States)

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

US climate policy: evolution and future prospects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agrawala, S.; Andresen, S.

2001-03-01

Climate change is a problem which US science has significantly helped to bring to the world's attention. It now requires initiatives in US domestic policy for even the first steps towards any realistic global resolution of this problem. This paper addresses three questions: (1) How has US climate policy evolved since climate change became an international political concern in the late 1980s?; (2) what is the relative significance of various factors, both domestic and international, in shaping this evolution?; and (3) what are some likely future scenarios for the climate regime and the role of the US under the new Bush (Jr.) administration? This analysis suggests that the US has generally played a cautious, even blocking role on the international arena, although the period between 1992 and 1997 witnessed a rather uneven march towards progressivism, culminating in the US agreeing to a 7 per cent cut in its greenhouse emissions by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. US policy during the Bush (Sr.) and Clinton administrations was primarily shaped by powerful ideologues, while a second critical determinant was the constitutional separation of powers between the executive and legislature. Scientific assessments and international negotiations meanwhile have given climate change unusual stamina on the domestic agenda, while the preferred set of policy responses has been constrained by a national culture that gives primacy to the market over the state. Looking into the future, the recent one-two punch delivered by President George W. Bush in reversing his pledge to regulate carbon dioxide followed by a rejection of US commitments under the Kyoto Protocol renders any expectation of measures to reduce domestic emissions unrealistic, and is likely to cripple the treaty in its present form. The possibility of an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol also appears very remote at this time. However, while official action is unlikely, it is possible that the growth of US

Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Lionello

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Freynet David

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Temperature and extreme rainfalls on France in a climatic change scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deque, M.

2007-01-01

Impact of an anthropogenic climate change scenario on the frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation over France is studied with a numerical simulation calibrated with observed daily data from the synoptic network. (author)

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

2017-12-01

Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios foran eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of ArunachalPradesh ...

Regional and urban downscaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

San Jose, R.; Perez, J.L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R.M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

2015-07-01

In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the {sup n}o feedback{sup s}imulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

Climate change scenarios and Technology Transfer Protocols

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal

2011-01-01

We apply a specific version of MERGE-ETL, an integrated assessment model, to study global climate policies supported by Technology Transfer Protocols (TTPs). We model a specific formulation of such a TTP where donor countries finance via carbon tax revenues, the diffusion of carbon-free technologies in developing countries (DCs) and quantify its benefits. Industrialized countries profit from increased technology exports, global diffusion of advanced technology (leading to additional technology learning and cost reductions) and reduced climate damages through the likelihood of greater global participation in a new international agreement. DCs experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and expected secondary benefits of carbon abatement (such as reduced local and regional air pollution). The analysis identifies potential candidate technologies that could be supported under a TTP, and the impact of a TTP on economic development (including the flow of transfer subsidies) and global emissions. Although a TTP may encourage additional participation, such a proposal is only likely to be successful if an increased willingness to pay to avoid climate damages is accepted, first by the present and future generations of the industrialized world and later on, when sufficient economic growth is accumulated, by today's developing countries. - Research Highlights: → Climate policy scenarios are assessed with differentiated commitments in carbon emission control supported by Technology Transfer Protocols. → Donor countries finance, via carbon-tax revenues, the exports of carbon-free technologies in developing countries helping to get a new international agreement. → Developing countries experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and secondary benefits. → Under Technology Protocols alone and

Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

2016-05-01

Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

National Scale Prediction of Soil Carbon Sequestration under Scenarios of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Izaurralde, R. C.; Thomson, A. M.; Potter, S. R.; Atwood, J. D.; Williams, J. R.

2006-12-01

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is gaining momentum as a tool to mitigate the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Texas A&M University, and USDA-NRCS used the EPIC model to develop national-scale predictions of soil carbon sequestration with adoption of no till (NT) under scenarios of climate change. In its current form, the EPIC model simulates soil C changes resulting from heterotrophic respiration and wind / water erosion. Representative modeling units were created to capture the climate, soil, and management variability at the 8-digit hydrologic unit (USGS classification) watershed scale. The soils selected represented at least 70% of the variability within each watershed. This resulted in 7,540 representative modeling units for 1,412 watersheds. Each watershed was assigned a major crop system: corn, soybean, spring wheat, winter wheat, cotton, hay, alfalfa, corn-soybean rotation or wheat-fallow rotation based on information from the National Resource Inventory. Each representative farm was simulated with conventional tillage and no tillage, and with and without irrigation. Climate change scenarios for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2045-2075) were selected from GCM model runs using the IPCC SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 from the UK Hadley Center (HadCM3) and US DOE PCM (PCM) models. Changes in mean and standard deviation of monthly temperature and precipitation were extracted from gridded files and applied to baseline climate (1960-1990) for each of the 1,412 modeled watersheds. Modeled crop yields were validated against historical USDA NASS county yields (1960-1990). The HadCM3 model predicted the most severe changes in climate parameters. Overall, there would be little difference between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Carbon offsets were calculated as the difference in soil C change between conventional and no till. Overall, C offsets during the first 30-y period (513 Tg C) are predicted to

Climate indices for vulnerability assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Persson, Gunn; Baerring, Lars; Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Rummuk ainen, Markku

2007-08-15

The demand is growing for practical information on climate projections and the impacts expected in different geographical regions and different sectors. It is a challenge to transform the vast amount of data produced in climate models into relevant information for climate change impact studies. Climate indices based on climate model data can be used as means to communicate climate change impact relations. In this report a vast amount of results is presented from a multitude of indices based on different regional climate scenarios. The regional climate scenarios described in this report show many similarities with previous scenarios in terms of general evolution and amplitude of future European climate change. The broad features are manifested in increases in warm and decreases in cold indices. Likewise are presented increases in wet indices in the north and dry indices in the south. Despite the extensive nature of the material presented, it does not cover the full range of possible climate change. We foresee a continued interactive process with stakeholders as well as continued efforts and updates of the results presented in the report.

A discussion on assessing climate-related hazards and uncertainties considering scenarios of climate-change: Examples and applications to some African areas

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Marzocchi, Warner; Uhinga, Guido

2013-04-01

Extreme meteorological phenomena such as heavy precipitation, extreme temperature, or strong winds, may have considerable impacts on the economy, infrastructure, health, as well as may represent a non-negligible threat for human life. A changing climate may lead to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of weather and climate extremes, and can result in unprecedented extreme events. Climatological parameters, that are reference variables for the assessment of climate-related hazards, can be generally obtained from data catalogues; nevertheless, it is often the case that the time window of the observations, if available at all, is too short for a correct analysis of the most extreme and less frequent events. For this reason there is a growing interest on the use of 'synthetic' data derived from climatological models which in addition, allow the possibility to perform climate projections considering different plausible emission/concentration scenarios in the modelling. Within this context, the scenario-based climate projections can be useful to assess possible temporal variations on climatological parameters (and hence in climate-related hazards) under climate change conditions. Here we discuss the characterization of some climate-related hazards based on the analysis of climatological parameters, debating relevant issues in the use of both observed and synthetic data, the consideration of climate-change scenarios, and the quantification and communication of uncertainties. In particular, to account for possible non-stationary conditions in the analysis of extremes under climate-change conditions, we have adopted a practical covariate approach recently used in different hydrological and meteorological applications, and used a Bayesian framework for the parameter estimation and uncertainty propagation.

Modelling Snowmelt Runoff under Climate Change Scenarios in an Ungauged Mountainous Watershed, Northwest China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonggang Ma

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3 outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM. The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF and water balance coefficient (RE. The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Farda, Aleš

2018-02-01

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970-1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020-2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070-2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

Science.gov (United States)

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Miller, Brian; Cross, Molly; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Climate evolution on the terrestrial planets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasting, J.F.; Toon, O.B.

1989-01-01

The present comparative evaluation of the long-term evolution of the Venus, earth, and Mars climates suggests that the earth's climate has remained temperate over most of its history despite a secular solar luminosity increase in virtue of a negative-feedback cycle based on atmospheric CO 2 levels and climate. The examination of planetary climate histories suggests that an earth-sized planet should be able to maintain liquid water on its surface at orbital distances in the 0.9-1.5 AU range, comparable to the orbit of Mars; this, in turn, implies that there may be many other habitable planets within the Galaxy

Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, L. A.

2012-12-01

Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided

Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

2015-05-01

We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer.

Using Maps of City Analogues to Display and Interpret Climate Change scenarios and their uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopf, S.; Minh, Ha-Duong; Hallegatte, St.

2008-02-01

We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today represents A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days. Analogy was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Center and Meteo France. Climate analogues were generally found southward of present locations, a clear warming trend even if much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible effects of climate change on urban areas, offering a holistic approach to think about how cities adapt to different climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media. (authors)

Modelling the role of nitrogen in acidification of Swedish lakes: future scenarios of acid deposition, climate change and forestry practices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moldan, Filip (Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd., Stockholm (Sweden)); Cosby, B. Jack (Dept. of Env. Sciences, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)); Wright, Richard F. (Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Kjelsas, Oslo (Norway))

2009-12-15

There are three major drivers that can cause future changes in lake water chemistry: air pollution, land use and climate change. In this report we used an extensive set of Swedish lakes sampled in 1995, 2000 and in 2005 to model future lake water chemistry under 5 different scenarios. The base case scenario represented deposition of air pollutants under current legislation (CLE); that is assuming that emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) will be reduced as currently agreed by the Gothenburg protocol, NEC directive and other legislation. After the agreed emission reductions were achieved, no further reduction in deposition was assumed and deposition was maintained constant up to year 2100. The base scenario assumed no change in current forestry practices and no climate change. A second other deposition scenario was based on maximum (technically) feasible emission reduction (MFR). The MFR scenario also did not assume change of either forestry practices or climate. A maximum biomass harvest was modelled (land use, LU, scenario), which entailed harvest of tree stems, slash and stumps. A scenario of climate change (CC) followed the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled to Sweden by SMHI. Finally climate change and land use were combined (CCLU scenario). The CC, LU and CCLU scenarios were driven by the 'current legislation' (CLE) deposition scenario for S and N deposition. The biogeochemical model MAGIC was used in this project, and scenarios were evaluated up to year 2100. Special attention was paid to the impact of the future scenarios on N leaching

Potential impact of climatic changes on floristic evolution of phytocoenoses in mediterranean agroecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefano Benvenuti

Full Text Available In order to predict the potential agronomic scenarios of the future, the probable involvements of climatic changes on weed dynamics were analyzed. In this perspective the several climatic parameters were examined and overlapped to the biological characteristics of the different species to predict both: weed evolution and the sustainability of the relative management. Thermal and CO2 increasing favour the weed ruderality in terms of seed quantity and velocity of seed set. In addition the increasing of stress factors (thermal, drought, UV-B, etc. favour the de-specialization trend as typically occurs in the most persistent weeds. Adverse climatic dynamics, even due to events of opposite biological action (for example drought and flooding, appears to have a synergistic impact with the agronomic disturbances. Indeed these additive disturbances increase the selective pressure of the phytocoenoses and play a crucial role in the allowing survival only to the “segetal” weeds as well it occurs from the origin of agriculture. Consequently, the different degree of resilience induces a decreasing of the phytocoenoses complexity. This biodiversity reduction appears to increase the risk of exotic weed invasion overall regards to species from warmer and more arid environments (potentially even parasite species. Their invasivity could be increased by biotic or abiotic stress factors that are not present in their native environment. The fate of rare weeds appears to go to their extinction, overall if their dynamics is linked to fragile mutualistic interaction as it occurs in the case of entomogamous species. Indeed such simultaneous presence (flora and pollinator fauna is mined by the progressive differences between photoperiod and thermoperiod and the consequent de-synchronization of their phenological phases. This virtual weed evolution through the increasing of the richness of self- and wind-pollinated weeds will involve both: 1 the agricultural landscape

Potential impact of climatic changes on floristic evolution of phytocoenoses in mediterranean agroecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefano Benvenuti

2011-02-01

Full Text Available In order to predict the potential agronomic scenarios of the future, the probable involvements of climatic changes on weed dynamics were analyzed. In this perspective the several climatic parameters were examined and overlapped to the biological characteristics of the different species to predict both: weed evolution and the sustainability of the relative management. Thermal and CO2 increasing favour the weed ruderality in terms of seed quantity and velocity of seed set. In addition the increasing of stress factors (thermal, drought, UV-B, etc. favour the de-specialization trend as typically occurs in the most persistent weeds. Adverse climatic dynamics, even due to events of opposite biological action (for example drought and flooding, appears to have a synergistic impact with the agronomic disturbances. Indeed these additive disturbances increase the selective pressure of the phytocoenoses and play a crucial role in the allowing survival only to the “segetal” weeds as well it occurs from the origin of agriculture. Consequently, the different degree of resilience induces a decreasing of the phytocoenoses complexity. This biodiversity reduction appears to increase the risk of exotic weed invasion overall regards to species from warmer and more arid environments (potentially even parasite species. Their invasivity could be increased by biotic or abiotic stress factors that are not present in their native environment. The fate of rare weeds appears to go to their extinction, overall if their dynamics is linked to fragile mutualistic interaction as it occurs in the case of entomogamous species. Indeed such simultaneous presence (flora and pollinator fauna is mined by the progressive differences between photoperiod and thermoperiod and the consequent de-synchronization of their phenological phases. This virtual weed evolution through the increasing of the richness of self- and wind-pollinated weeds will involve both: 1 the agricultural landscape

Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuezhen Ge

Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

2016-01-01

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide

Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Gross

Full Text Available In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in

Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

2016-01-01

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)—weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will

Widespread correlations between climatic niche evolution and species diversification in birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooney, Christopher R; Seddon, Nathalie; Tobias, Joseph A

2016-07-01

The adaptability of species' climatic niches can influence the dynamics of colonization and gene flow across climatic gradients, potentially increasing the likelihood of speciation or reducing extinction in the face of environmental change. However, previous comparative studies have tested these ideas using geographically, taxonomically and ecologically restricted samples, yielding mixed results, and thus the processes linking climatic niche evolution with diversification remain poorly understood. Focusing on birds, the largest and most widespread class of terrestrial vertebrates, we test whether variation in species diversification among clades is correlated with rates of climatic niche evolution and the extent to which these patterns are modified by underlying gradients in biogeography and species' ecology. We quantified climatic niches, latitudinal distribution and ecological traits for 7657 (˜75%) bird species based on geographical range polygons and then used Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to test whether niche evolution was related to species richness and rates of diversification across genus- and family-level clades. We found that the rate of climatic niche evolution has a positive linear relationship with both species richness and diversification rate at two different taxonomic levels (genus and family). Furthermore, this positive association between labile climatic niches and diversification was detected regardless of variation in clade latitude or key ecological traits. Our findings suggest either that rapid adaptation to unoccupied areas of climatic niche space promotes avian diversification, or that diversification promotes adaptation. Either way, we propose that climatic niche evolution is a fundamental process regulating the link between climate and biodiversity at global scales, irrespective of the geographical and ecological context of speciation and extinction. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change. Editorial Essay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goessling, S.; Hall, C.M.

2006-01-01

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, 'warmer' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity. This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters. The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including 'most at risk destinations', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation

Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change. Editorial Essay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goessling, S. [Department of Service Management, Lund University, Box 882, 251 08 Helsingborg (Sweden); Hall, C.M. [Department of Tourism, University of Otago, Otago (New Zealand)

2006-12-15

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, 'warmer' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity. This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters. The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including 'most at risk destinations', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation.

Level of knowledge in the science of climate change: will the climate really change in the 21st century?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourque, A.

2003-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently stated that mean temperature is not as stable as it used to be, indicating a trend toward global warming. Understanding this phenomena should lead to better decisions concerning reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. It should also make it easier to adapt our socio-economic and environmental activities to a new reality which seems inevitable. The author discussed climate equilibrium by looking at the five sub-systems: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. A review of the historical evolution of climate was presented along with an examination of the relationships between greenhouse gases and the recent evolution of climate. The author discussed the uncertainty of scenarios predicting the future of climate change and concluded that climate change is upon us and is likely to intensify in the future. It was emphasized that adaptation to climate change will have to include reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the author, a scenario involving a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere appears almost unavoidable. 7 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs

Development of a methodology to assess the climate evolution and its impacts on wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simard, I. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada); Yu, W. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). Meteorological Research Div.; Gagnon, Y. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). K.C. Irving Chair in Sustainable Development

2010-07-01

Maps of wind resources were used to develop a method of evaluating climatic changes and their potential impacts on wind energy resources. Global IPCC climate change scenarios were used to predict climatic conditions for the future, while past wind resource availability was simulated and validated using NCEP and NCAR reanalysis data as well as observed meteorological data from Environment Canada. The simulations were used to compare each 5-year period with a 50-year reference period. Regional scale climate change impacts were evaluated using a statistical dynamic down-scaling method. Advanced meteorological models were used to predict wind flow patterns across specific landscapes. The evolution of past wind resource availability was then simulated. Five-year wind resource simulations for a 50-year period were simulated at 25 km{sup 2} wind speeds at 80 m above the ground. Average wind speed variations were then evaluated. The method has been used to simulate 5-year periods within a 50-year reference period in New Brunswick. Further studies will be conducted to simulate future wind resources availability. tabs., figs.

Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harald Kling

2014-07-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

Energy [R]evolution 2008-a sustainable world energy perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewitt, Wolfram; Teske, Sven; Simon, Sonja; Pregger, Thomas; Graus, Wina; Blomen, Eliane; Schmid, Stephan; Schaefer, Oliver

2009-01-01

The Energy [R]evolution 2008 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2007. It takes up recent trends in global socio-economic developments, and analyses to which extent they affect chances for achieving global climate protection targets. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to 10 Gt per year in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 deg. C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A review of sector and region specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding energy supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The Energy [R]evolution scenario shows that renewable energy can provide more than half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, whilst at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%.

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2006-01-01

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.

Scenarios of the long term evolution of the energy sector. Energy needs, choices and possibilities: Shell's scenarios for 2050. The long-term evolution of the energy sector. A vision of the 2020-2050 energy mix. Phase dynamics analysis of energy demand scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, B.; Appert, O; Bauquis, P.R.; Alba, P.

2002-01-01

This dossier comprises 4 articles dealing with energy scenarios. The first article presents the prospective studies carried out by the Shell group which lead to the construction of two scenarios entitled: 'dynamics as usual' and 'the spirit of the coming age'. Both scenarios foresee an explosion of the primary energy demand for the coming next 50 years (multiplied by a factor of 2 to 2.8 with respect to 2000) with a decline of hydrocarbons for the benefit of gas and renewable energies (including bio-fuels), while nuclear and coal will still represent a quarter of our needs. However, the main uncertainty remains the demographic expansion during the next 50 years. The second article presents the energy models and projections of the IEA for the long-term evolution of the energy sector (petroleum, gas, coal, renewable energy and uranium resources) and the main uncertainties of these projections (economic growth, environmental policies, technological evolutions). The third article presents the agreements and divergences of the author's forecasts for 2050 with Shell's scenarios, while the last article makes a comparison between the IEA, IIASA-CME and Shell scenarios using a phase dynamics analysis. (J.S.)

The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2014-12-01

We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

Science.gov (United States)

Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

2014-05-01

Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

Implications of climate change scenarios for soil erosion potential in the USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillips, D L; White, D; Johnson, B [US EPA, Corvallis, OR (United States). Environmental Research Laboratory

1993-07-01

Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may result in global changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 40-100 years. Equilibrium climate scenarios from four GCMs run under doubled CO[sub 2] conditions were examined for their effect on the climatic potential for sheet and rill erosion in the conterminous USA. Changes in the mean annual rainfall factor (R) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were calculated for each cropland, pastureland and rangeland sample point in the 1987 National Resources Inventory. Projected annual precipitation changes were assumed to be from differences in either storm frequency or storm intensity. With all other USLE factors held constant these changes in R translated to changes in the sheet and rill erosion national average of +2 to +16 per cent in croplands, -2 to +10 per cent in pasturelands and 5 to +22 per cent in rangelands under the eight scenarios. Land with erosion rates above the soil loss tolerance (T) level and land classified as highly erodible also increased slightly. These results show the range of sensitivity of soil erosion potential by water under projected climate change scenarios. However, actual changes in soil erosion could be mitigated by management practices, or possibly by increased crop growth and residue production under higher atmospheric CO[sub 2] concentrations.

Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-08-01

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of

Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

2016-11-01

Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-objective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI - 5187

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freynet, D.; Coquelet-Pascal, C.; Eschbach, R.; Krivtchik, G.; Merle-Lucotte, E.

2015-01-01

The consequences of strategic choices on material inventories and flux in the fuel cycle can be analysed with the COSI code. Indeed COSI enables to compare various fleet evolution options (e.g. new reactor systems deployment) and different nuclear materials management (e.g. plutonium multi-recycling). COSI is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. In this paper a methodology for the nuclear fleet evolution scenarios optimization using COSI is introduced. A large number of scenario calculations is needed to solve an optimization problem, which makes infeasible an optimization calculation using the COSI/CESAR version. Given that CESAR calculations represent about 95% of the COSI computation time, CESAR irradiation surrogate models carrying out with ANN regression method and cooling analytic models have been coupled with COSI. An example of optimization study is presented involving 2 discrete variables related to the number of deployed SFR to renew the French PWR fleet and 2 criteria: minimizing the natural uranium consumption and the number of produced HLW vitrified packages

Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

2015-07-01

In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuan B. Le

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

Using interviews and focus groups with resource managers to explore risk perceptions and responses to climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.

2016-12-01

Resource managers in the western U.S. are increasingly tasked to incorporate climate change into management decisions and long-term planning, but this task is complicated by multiple challenges, among them the need to bridge between the differing perspectives and prerogatives of scientists and resource managers. As part of a larger, iterative, interdisciplinary, multi-landscape research project that built on a prior climate vulnerability research, we conducted more than 50 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups with resource managers in the Gunnison Basin in western Colorado. The interviews addressed the managers' risk perceptions and knowledge about the resources and landscapes, while the focus groups asked resource managers to reflect on their own resource decision-making in light of three narrative future climate scenarios created by scientists on the research team. While time-intensive, the interviews and focus groups produced important insights into the managers' understanding of both the resources in question and the future climate scenarios. We found that the managers' mental models of their systems, and their conceptions of landscape changes and future threats, were diverse and sometimes in conflict with those held by the research team. The managers' responses to the climate scenarios reflected divergent and nuanced perceptions of risk, adaptation and uncertainty, heavily shaped by personal experience—which could be a constraint under rapidly changing future conditions. Our deployment of social science methodologies facilitated the co-production of climate adaptation strategies and a bridge between and among scientists and managers. The participants found the focus groups helpful since they (1) provided space to focus on decision-making under climate change, rather than fixate on details of the science, and (2) facilitated interaction with colleagues from other agencies. Climate scientists used participant feedback to inform future scenario

Soil erosion predictions from a landscape evolution model - An assessment of a post-mining landform using spatial climate change analogues.

Science.gov (United States)

Hancock, G R; Verdon-Kidd, D; Lowry, J B C

2017-12-01

Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently risk not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in both the near and far future. One issue is that high resolution (both spatial and temporal) rainfall projections incorporating the potential effects of greenhouse forcing are required as input. However, projections of rainfall change are still highly uncertain for many regions, particularly at sub annual/seasonal scales. This is the case for northern Australia, where a decrease or an increase in rainfall post 2030 is considered equally likely based on climate model simulations. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate a spatial analogue approach to develop point scale hourly rainfall scenarios to be used as input to the CAESAR - Lisflood LEM to test the sensitivity of the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform to potential changes in climate. Importantly, the scenarios incorporate the range of projected potential increase/decrease in rainfall for northern Australia and capture the expected envelope of erosion rates and erosion patterns (i.e. where erosion and deposition occurs) over a 100year modelled period. We show that all rainfall scenarios produce sediment output and gullying greater than that of the surrounding natural system, however a 'wetter' future climate produces the highest output. Importantly, incorporating analogue rainfall scenarios into LEM has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software. Further, the method can be easily transferred to other sites (both nationally and internationally) where rainfall variability is significant and climate change impacts are uncertain. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

Science.gov (United States)

Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

2016-01-01

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long term evolution of waste disposal sites: scenario selection and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peaudecerf, P.; Blanc, P.L.

1990-01-01

The safety analysis of long term radioactive waste disposal projects must take into account the evolution of the sites natural environment. The present paper aims at reassessing some questions relating to the methods and to some lack of knowledge which may appear when we try to forecast such evolutions and their results, and to some solutions that can be considered. We will particularly discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the deterministic approaches and the construction and working out of scenarios. The presentation is illustrated by reference to recent examples. 5 refs., 6 figs [fr

Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xue; Ye, Si-Yuan; Wei, Ai-Hua; Zhou, Peng-Peng; Wang, Li-Heng

2017-09-01

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011-2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961-2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rypdal, Kristin; Rive, Nathan; Berntsen, Terje; Fagerli, Hilde; Klimont, Zbigniew; Mideksa, Torben K.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.

2009-01-01

In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO 2 , NO x , CH 4 , VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH 4 . While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO 2 , contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO x and SO 2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.

Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teegavarapu, R. S.

2008-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.

Science.gov (United States)

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2017-08-16

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Posch

2008-03-01

Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

Merging Methods to Manage Uncertainty: Combining Simulation Modeling and Scenario Planning to Inform Resource Management Under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, B. W.; Schuurman, G. W.; Symstad, A.; Fisichelli, N. A.; Frid, L.

2017-12-01

Managing natural resources in this era of anthropogenic climate change is fraught with uncertainties around how ecosystems will respond to management actions and a changing climate. Scenario planning (oftentimes implemented as a qualitative, participatory exercise for exploring multiple possible futures) is a valuable tool for addressing this challenge. However, this approach may face limits in resolving responses of complex systems to altered climate and management conditions, and may not provide the scientific credibility that managers often require to support actions that depart from current practice. Quantitative information on projected climate changes and ecological responses is rapidly growing and evolving, but this information is often not at a scale or in a form that is `actionable' for resource managers. We describe a project that sought to create usable information for resource managers in the northern Great Plains by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, researchers, resource managers, and climate adaptation specialists co-produced a simulation model in conjunction with scenario planning workshops to inform natural resource management in southwest South Dakota. Scenario planning for a wide range of resources facilitated open-minded thinking about a set of divergent and challenging, yet relevant and plausible, climate scenarios and management alternatives that could be implemented in the simulation. With stakeholder input throughout the process, we built a simulation of key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between herd sizes and vegetation composition, and between the short- versus long-term costs of invasive species management. It also identified impactful uncertainties related to the

Climatic Change and Human Evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Garratt, John R.

1995-01-01

Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)

Effects of simultaneous climate change and geomorphic evolution on thermal characteristics of a shallow Alaskan lake

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Jennifer R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Ruggerone, Gregory T.

2011-01-01

We used a hydrodynamics model to assess the consequences of climate warming and contemporary geomorphic evolution for thermal conditions in a large, shallow Alaskan lake. We evaluated the effects of both known climate and landscape change, including rapid outlet erosion and migration of the principal inlet stream, over the past 50 yr as well as future scenarios of geomorphic restoration. Compared to effects of air temperature during the past 50 yr, lake thermal properties showed little sensitivity to substantial (~60%) loss of lake volume, as the lake maximum depth declined from 6 m to 4 m driven by outlet erosion. The direction and magnitude of future lake thermal responses will be driven largely by the extent of inlet stream migration when it occurs simultaneously with outlet erosion. Maintaining connectivity with inlet streams had substantial effects on buffering lake thermal responses to warming climate. Failing to account for changing rates and types of geomorphic processes under continuing climate change may misidentify the primary drivers of lake thermal responses and reduce our ability to understand the consequences for aquatic organisms.

Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate: A Life Cycle Assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

2015-01-01

The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding and includ......The paper has two main objectives: (i) to assess the eco-efficiency of spring barley cultivation for malting in Denmark in a future changed climate (700 ppm [CO2] and +5 °C) through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (ii) to compare alternative future cultivation scenarios, both excluding...

Past climate change and plant evolution in Western North America: a case study in Rosaceae.

Science.gov (United States)

Töpel, Mats; Antonelli, Alexandre; Yesson, Chris; Eriksen, Bente

2012-01-01

Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae) are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella) diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma), and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification.

Past climate change and plant evolution in Western North America: a case study in Rosaceae.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mats Töpel

Full Text Available Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma, and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification.

Which climate for tomorrow?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huet, S.

2000-01-01

This book explains in a clear way todays scientific knowledge about climate change and presents the method used by scientists to study climate and its evolution. It stresses on the urgency for an efficient international policy in order to fight against the striking increase of the Earth's greenhouse effect. However, it remains unbiased about the numerous uncertainties that exist in the possible scenarios proposed for tomorrows climate, despite the important progresses made in climatology these last years. (J.S.)

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-01-01

The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national

Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

2018-03-01

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

2014-05-01

The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect

Global climate change mitigation scenarios for solid waste management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monni, S. [Benviroc Ltd, Espoo (Finland); Pipatti, R. [Statistics Finland, Helsinki (Finland); Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.; Syri, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

2006-07-15

The waste sector is an important contributor to climate change. CH{sub 4} produced at solid waste disposal sites contributes approximately 3.4 percent to the annual global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from solid waste disposal are expected to increase with increasing global population and GDP. On the other hand, many cost-efficient emission reduction options are available. The rate of waste degradation in landfills depends on waste composition, climate and conditions in the landfill. Because the duration of CH{sub 4} generation is several decades, estimation of emissions from landfills requires modelling of waste disposal prior to the year whose emissions are of interest. In this study, country- or region-specific first-order decay (FOD) models based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines are used to estimate emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in landfills. In addition, IPCC methodology is used to estimate emissions from waste incineration. Five global scenarios are compiled from 1990 to 2050. These scenarios take into account political decision making and changes in the waste management system. In the Baseline scenario, waste generation is assumed to follow past and current trends using population and GDP as drivers. In the other scenarios, effects of increased incineration, increased recycling and increased landfill gas recovery on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are assessed. Economic maximum emission reduction potentials for these waste management options are estimated at different marginal cost levels for the year 2030 by using the Global TIMES model. Global emissions from landfills are projected to increase from 340 Tg CO{sub 2} eq in 1990 to 1500 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2030 and 2900 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2050 in the Baseline scenario. The emission reduction scenarios give emissions reductions from 5% (9%) to 21% (27%) compared to the Baseline in 2030 (2050). As each scenario considered one mitigation option, the results are largely additive, and

Energy-Climate Scenarios: An Adjustment after the Economic Crisis, Fukushima, Durban and... Shale Gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana; Peytral, Pierre-Olivier; Simon, Jean-Christophe

2012-01-01

In an article published in these pages in 2011 (no. 373), Patrick Criqui presented a series of scenarios on possible energy and climate trends, taking note of the agreement on climate change signed in late 2009 at the Copenhagen Conference. He pointed out that a paradigm shift was on the cards, which would mean less use of the top-down approach - with national objectives set as a function of international objectives formulated at major conferences - and greater implementation of a bottom-up logic based on national policies put in place in the energy field and as part of the battle against global warming. On the basis of this latter logic, the authors were able to elaborate scenarios at a world level. A few days before the publication of that article, the Fukushima accident occurred in japan, lending fresh impetus to the energy debate in most of the countries using nuclear power. Does that event, combined with the persistence of the debt crisis, the increased extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons (shale oil and gas ) and the fact that international negotiations on climate change (Durban) have merely marked time, modify the projected scenarios -and, if so, to what extent ? Patrick Criqui, Silvana Mima, Pierre-Olivier Peytral and jean-Christophe Simon consider this question in detail here. They begin by examining the impact of these recent events and developments on the current energy and climate situation. Then, after reminding us of the four world energy scenarios (to a time-horizon of 2030-2050) that were developed in 2009 (together with two 'discontinuity scenarios'), they propose an updating that takes account of the perceived consequences of the change of context, stressing two crucial scenarios in particular: the probable (leading to warming in the order of 4 deg. C) and the desirable (limiting warming to 2 deg. C). Lastly, they propose various levers aimed at 'making the desirable trajectory possible' (technological agreements, economic instruments

Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents.

Science.gov (United States)

Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

2005-03-22

Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change.

Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2016-01-01

Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan M Requena-Mullor

Full Text Available As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the

Level of knowledge in the science of climate change: will the climate really change in the 21st century?; Etat des connaissances en science des changements climatiques: le climat changera-t-il vraiment au 21e siecle?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bourque, A. [Consortium Ouranos, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

2003-07-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently stated that mean temperature is not as stable as it used to be, indicating a trend toward global warming. Understanding this phenomena should lead to better decisions concerning reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. It should also make it easier to adapt our socio-economic and environmental activities to a new reality which seems inevitable. The author discussed climate equilibrium by looking at the five sub-systems: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. A review of the historical evolution of climate was presented along with an examination of the relationships between greenhouse gases and the recent evolution of climate. The author discussed the uncertainty of scenarios predicting the future of climate change and concluded that climate change is upon us and is likely to intensify in the future. It was emphasized that adaptation to climate change will have to include reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the author, a scenario involving a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere appears almost unavoidable. 7 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

Neogene climate evolution in Amazonia and the Brazilian Northeast

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoorn, C.; Bernardes-de-Oliveira, M.E.C.; Dino, R.; Garcia, M.J.; Antonioli, L.; da Costa Casado, F.; Hooghiemstra, H.; de Souza Carvalho, I.; Garcia, M.J.; Strohschoen, O.; Cunha Lana, C.

2014-01-01

Climate change follows from the interaction between global atmospheric and oceanic processes with regional processes. In this chapter we review which factors determined climate evolution in Amazonia and the Brazilian Northeast and present a recompilation of Neogene palynological and paleobotanical

Local and regional low carbon scenarios methodology, challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

In its first part, this report discusses the emergence of local climate and energy policy in Europe, the implementation of nationally imposed but regionally anchored energy scenarios (i.e. in France, the Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes or SRCAE). Then it addresses the methodological and political aspects of local and regional low emission scenarios: methodologies and typologies of energy scenarios, ways to define an appropriate emission reduction and energy consumption objective, ways to deal with emission or carbon gaps, ways to make local emission inventories, ways to gather local data, ways to deal with special emission sources, ways to assess and develop local energy efficiency and renewable energy potentials, ways to take energy sufficiency into account, and the evolution from energy autonomy to 100% renewable energy territories. The last part addresses the issues of stake holder and citizen participation in the definition of long term strategies

High resolution climate scenarios for snowmelt modelling in small alpine catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Schirmer, M.; Peleg, N.; Burlando, P.; Jonas, T.

2017-12-01

Snow in the Alps is affected by climate change with regard to duration, timing and amount. This has implications with respect to important societal issues as drinking water supply or hydropower generation. In Switzerland, the latter received a lot of attention following the political decision to phase out of nuclear electricity production. An increasing number of authorization requests for small hydropower plants located in small alpine catchments was observed in the recent years. This situation generates ecological conflicts, while the expected climate change poses a threat to water availability thus putting at risk investments in such hydropower plants. Reliable high-resolution climate scenarios are thus required, which account for small-scale processes to achieve realistic predictions of snowmelt runoff and its variability in small alpine catchments. We therefore used a novel model chain by coupling a stochastic 2-dimensional weather generator (AWE-GEN-2d) with a state-of-the-art energy balance snow cover model (FSM). AWE-GEN-2d was applied to generate ensembles of climate variables at very fine temporal and spatial resolution, thus providing all climatic input variables required for the energy balance modelling. The land-surface model FSM was used to describe spatially variable snow cover accumulation and melt processes. The FSM was refined to allow applications at very high spatial resolution by specifically accounting for small-scale processes, such as a subgrid-parametrization of snow covered area or an improved representation of forest-snow processes. For the present study, the model chain was tested for current climate conditions using extensive observational dataset of different spatial and temporal coverage. Small-scale spatial processes such as elevation gradients or aspect differences in the snow distribution were evaluated using airborne LiDAR data. 40-year of monitoring data for snow water equivalent, snowmelt and snow-covered area for entire

Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

2013-04-01

The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Santana Andrade

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low. Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (60%. Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

A climate profile indicator based comparative analysis of climate change scenarios with regard to maize (Zea mays L.) cultures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dios, N.; Szenteleki, K.; Ferenczy, A.; Petranyl, G. [Corvinus Univ. of Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Mathematics and Informatics; Hufnagel, L. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Adaptation to Climate Change Research Group

2009-07-01

Recent research results let us conclude that climate change might have a significant effect on the yield of wheat, barley, rye, potato and maize, and the borderlines of their area of cultivation might shift 100--150 kilometers to the north. The possible mass occurrence of new aggressive pest, pathogen and weed species in Hungary might also create a problem from plant protection. Maize is one of the most important fodder-plants. Hungary has close to the largest total cultivating area in Europe. Maize is used in many ways, thus being of outstanding economic importance. In Hungary the conditions of maize cultivation are -- except for dry years -- quite favorable in most cultural regions and complex cultivating technologies are available. It also might gain a significant role in the line of new environment-friendly alternative sources of energy. For these reasons, it is important to examine the influence of meteorological factors on maize ecosystems and this examination should include as many climate change scenarios and as long a time series as possible. Using ecological data compiled from scientific literature on pest, pathogen and weed species characteristic in maize cultures in Hungary, we defined monthly climate profile indicators and applied them to complete a comparative analysis of the historical and modelled climate change scenario meteorological data of the city of Debrecen. Our results call attention to a drastic decline of the competitive ability of maize as compared to several C{sub 4} and especially C{sub 3} plants. According to the stricter scenarios, the frequency of potential pest and pathogen damage emergency situations will grow significantly by the end of the century.

The carbon budget of Pinus radiata plantations in south-western Australia under 4 climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simioni, G.; Ritson, P.; McGrath, J.; Dumbrell, I.; Copeland, B.

2009-01-01

The future stem wood production and net ecosystem production of Pinus radiata plantations in southwestern Australia were estimated in this modelling study, which was conducted in order to determine the potential effects of anticipated severe rainfall reductions in the region. Four climate change and emission scenarios were considered as well as simulations of the present climate. Results of the study showed that stem wood production and NEP were not significantly influenced by moderate changes in temperature. However, stem wood production and NEP decreased significantly under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios. Results of the study suggested that a trade-off between the positive effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on plant and water use efficiency and the negative impacts of decreased rainfall and increased temperatures. Changes in heterotrophic respiration lagged behind changes in plant growth. It was concluded that realistic predictions of forest production and carbon sequestration potential will require modelling tools capable of characterizing interactions between environmental variables, plant physiology and soil organic matter decomposition, as well as the potential range of climate change scenarios. 53 refs., 4 tabs., 9 figs

France during the last two climate extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The study of past climate events provides precious information for the forecasting of future climates at the 5000, 10000 or 50000 years vista. This work belongs to the geo-prospective work carried out by the Andra. It aims at understanding the key climatic events of the geological history in order to design possible scenarios of the future evolution of the climate and its eventual impacts on underground radioactive waste repositories. Paleo-climatic maps are given in appendixes. (J.S.)

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine Princé

Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

Energy [r]evolution - a sustainable world energy outlook

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teske, S.; Muth, J.; Sawyer, S.; Pregger, T.; Simon, S.; Naegler, T.; O'Sullivan, M.; Schmid, S; Pagenkopf, J.; Frieske, B.; Graus, W.H.J.; Kermeli, K.; Zittel, W.; Rutovitz, J.; Harris, S.; Ackermann, T.; Ruwahata, R.; Martense, N.

2012-01-01

Energy [R]evolution 2012 provides a consistent fundamental pathway for how to protect our climate: getting the world from where we are now to where we need to be by phasing out fossil fuels and cutting CO2 emissions while ensuring energy security.The Energy [R]evolution Scenario has become a well

Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rummukainen, Markku; Räisänen, J.; Bjørge, D.

2003-01-01

in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models......-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding....

U.S. climate mitigation pathways post-2012: Transition scenarios in ADAGE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, Martin T.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Clapp, Christa S.

2009-01-01

The transition from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels currently allowed under the Kyoto Protocol climate agreement to more ambitious, and internationally comprehensive, GHG reduction goals will have important implications for the global economic system. Given the major role that the United States plays in the global economy, and also as a major GHG emitter, this paper examines a range of climate policy pathways for the country in the context of international actions. The ADAGE model is used to examine policy impacts for climate scenarios, focusing on key factors such as emissions, technology deployment, macroeconomic indicators and international trade. In general, the simulations indicate that reductions in GHG emissions can be accomplished with limited economic adjustments, although impacts depend on the future availability of new low-carbon technologies.

Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren, D.P. van

2007-01-01

In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As uncertainties

Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Stefanidis, Konstantinos; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Mimikou, Maria

2018-06-15

Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the

Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Powell, Thomas W R; Lenton, Timothy M

2013-01-01

We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species–energy and species–area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect. (letter)

A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliet, M.T.H. van; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Harpham, C.; Broers, H.P.; Fowler, H.J.

2012-01-01

Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations

Estimation of Crop Coefficient of Corn (Kccorn under Climate Change Scenarios Using Data Mining Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kampanad Bhaktikul

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The main objectives of this study are to determine the crop coefficient of corn (Kccorn using data mining technique under climate change scenarios, and to develop the guidelines for future water management based on climate change scenarios. Variables including date, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from seven meteorological stations during 1991 to 2000 were used. Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM was applied for data collection and analyses. The procedures compose of investigation of input data, model set up using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, model evaluation, and finally estimation of the Kccorn. Three climate change scenarios of carbon dioxide (CO2 concentration level: 360 ppm, 540 ppm, and 720 ppm were set. The results indicated that the best number of node of input layer - hidden layer - output layer was 7-13-1. The correlation coefficient of model was 0.99. The predicted Kccorn revealed that evapotranspiration (ETcorn pattern will be changed significantly upon CO2 concentration level. From the model predictions, ETcorn will be decreased 3.34% when CO2 increased from 360 ppm to 540 ppm. For the double CO2 concentration from 360 ppm to 720 ppm, ETcorn will be increased 16.13%. The future water management guidelines to cope with the climate change are suggested.

Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

Science.gov (United States)

Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-12-18

Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

Hydrology of a Water‐Limited Forest under Climate Change Scenarios: The Case of the Caatinga Biome, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Everton Alves Rodrigues Pinheiro

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Given the strong interactions between climate and vegetation, climate change effects on natural and agricultural ecosystems are common objects of research. Reduced water availability is predicted to take place across large regions of the globe, including Northeastern Brazil. The Caatinga, a complex tropical water‐limited ecosystem and the only exclusively Brazilian biome, prevails as the main natural forest of this region. The aim of this study was to examine the soil‐water balance for this biome under a climate‐warming scenario and with reduced rainfall. Climate change projections were assessed from regional circulation models earlier applied to the Brazilian territory. A statistical climate data generator was used to compose a synthetic weather dataset, which was later integrated into a hydrological model. Compared to simulations with current climate for the same site, under the scenario with climate change, transpiration was enhanced by 36%, and soilwater evaporation and interception were reduced by 16% and 34%, respectively. The greatest change in soil‐water components was observed for deep drainage, accounting only for 2% of the annual rainfall. Soil‐plant‐atmosphere fluxes seem to be controlled by the top layer (0.0-0.2 m, which provides 80% of the total transpiration, suggesting that the Caatinga forest may become completely soil‐water pulse dominated under scenarios of reduced water availability.

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-01-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO 2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO 2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-07-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinli Ke

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

Science.gov (United States)

Revell, L. E.; Tummon, F.; Stenke, A.; Sukhodolov, T.; Coulon, A.; Rozanov, E.; Garny, H.; Grewe, V.; Peter, T.

2015-05-01

influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change-induced enhancements in lightning NOx emissions also increase the tropospheric ozone burden, although their impacts are relatively small. Overall, the results show that under this climate scenario, ozone in the future is governed largely by changes in methane and NOx; methane induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. Climate impacts on ozone through changes in tropospheric temperature, humidity and lightning NOx remain secondary compared with emission strategies relating to anthropogenic emissions of NOx, such as fossil fuel burning. Therefore, emission policies globally have a critical role to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

Science.gov (United States)

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye. M. Gusev

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

2017-06-01

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Climate protection scenario 2050. Summary; Klimaschutzszenario 2050. Zusammenfassung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Repenning, Julia; Emele, Lukas [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Berlin (Germany); Braungardt, Sibylle; Eichhammer, Wolfgang [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

2014-04-15

The report on the meeting of the experts on modeling of the climate protection scenario 2050 summarizes the substantial results: 80-90% reduction the greenhouse gas emissions means a reduction of fossil energy carriers by up to 98%. The electricity generation industry has to provide most of the reduction since esp. agriculture cannot reduce the CO2 emissions. The amount of renewable energy for electricity production has to increase to about 95%. The economic analysis shows that a strategy of energy efficiency and electricity production from renewable energy sources plus product innovation is a no-regret strategy that will be advantageous for Germany in a long-term.

An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Babak Farjad

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

2010-12-01

Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation

OpenAIRE

Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Baker, Paul A.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brewer, Simon; Brook, Ed; Carlson, Anders E.; Cheng, Hai; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Liu, Zhengyu; Marchitto, Thomas M.; Mix, Alan C.; Morrill, Carrie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Pahnke, Katharina

2012-01-01

Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth’s climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to th...

A model for the analysis of a normal evolution scenarios for a deep geological granite repository for high-level radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormenzana Lopez, J.L.; Cunado, M.A.; Lopez, M.T.

1996-01-01

The methodology usually used to evaluate the behaviour of deep geological repositories for high-level radioactive wastes comprises three phases: Identification of factors (processes, characteristics and events) that can affect the repository. Generation of scenarios. In general, a normal evolution scenario (Reference Scenario) and various disruptive scenarios (earthquake, human intrusion, etc) are considered. Evaluation of the behaviour of the repository in each scenario. The normal evolution scenario taking into account all factors with a high probability of occurrence is the first to be analysed. The performance assessment of behaviour being carried out by ENRESA for the AGP Granite has led to the identification of 63 of these factors. To analyse repository behaviour in the normal evolution scenario, it is necessary to first of all create an integrated model of the global system. This is a qualitative model including the 63 factors identified. For a global view of a such a complex system, it is very useful to graphically display the relationship between factors in an Influence Diagram. This paper shows the Influence Diagram used in the analysis of the AGP Granite Reference Scenario. (Author)

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

2015-02-20

validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

Comparison of Water Flows in Four European Lagoon Catchments under a Set of Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cornelia Hesse

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Climate change is supposed to remarkably affect the water resources of coastal lagoons as they are highly vulnerable to changes occurring at their catchment and/or ocean or sea boundaries. Probable impacts of projected climate changes on catchment hydrology and freshwater input were assessed using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model for the drainage areas of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal, Mar Menor (Spain, Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine and Vistula Lagoon (Poland/Russia under a set of 15 climate scenarios covering the time period until the year 2100. Climate change signals for all regions show continuously increasing trends in temperature, but various trends in precipitation. Precipitation is projected to decrease in two catchments on the Iberian Peninsula and increase in the Baltic region catchment, and does not show a clear trend in the catchment located near the Black Sea. The average projected changes in freshwater inputs reflect these changes in climate conditions, but often show variability between the scenarios, in future periods, and within the catchments. According to the individual degrees of water management influences in the four drainage basins, the climate sensitivity of river inflows is differently pronounced in each.

Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

2012-01-01

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Environment and Climate of Early Human Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Naomi E.

2015-05-01

Evaluating the relationships between climate, the environment, and human traits is a key part of human origins research because changes in Earth's atmosphere, oceans, landscapes, and ecosystems over the past 10 Myr shaped the selection pressures experienced by early humans. In Africa, these relationships have been influenced by a combination of high-latitude ice distributions, sea surface temperatures, and low-latitude orbital forcing that resulted in large oscillations in vegetation and moisture availability that were modulated by local basin dynamics. The importance of both climate and tectonics in shaping African landscapes means that integrated views of the ecological, environmental, and tectonic histories of a region are necessary in order to understand the relationships between climate and human evolution.

Climate Change and water resources: Scenarios of low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mauser, W; Marke, T; Stoeber, S

2008-01-01

Global Climate Change will have regional impacts on the water resources and will force water resources managers and farmers to adapt. Both low-flow and its duration are critical hydrological parameters, which strongly influence the state of aquatic ecosystems as well as power production, reservoir management and industry. Impacts of future climate change is analysed using scenarios for the change of meteorological drivers and regional hydrological simulation models. The project GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) develops integrative modelling techniques combining process knowledge from both natural and social sciences to examine the sustainability of regional water systems as well as water management alternatives in the Upper Danube watershed (A = 77000 km 2 ). Special emphasis is given to changes in low-flow condition. DANUBIA describes the regional water cycle both physical and spatially distributed. It consists of a collection of tightly coupled models, which strictly preserve energy and matter and are not calibrated to maximise their overall predictive abilities. The paper demonstrates that DANUBIA can reproduce the daily discharge for the time period from 1971-2003 with a Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient of 0.84 (gauge Achleiten). Based on a statistical climate simulator 12 realisations of the IPCC A1B climate scenario were used to investigate impacts of climate change during the simulation period of 2011-2060. The change in discharge and frequency of occurrences of low-flow in the watershed for the scenario ensemble were analysed for the outlet gauge. The analysis shows that strong changes were simulated in the frequency of occurrences of low-flow conditions. The changing climate gradually reduces a 50-years NM7Q discharge of today to less than half of its discharge in the year 2060. These results clearly indicate that the expected climate change will strongly alter the low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube watershed.

Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

de Vrese, Philipp; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2018-04-01

An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximizes the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing us to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. For three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), we show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only a few agricultural areas have to be abandoned owing to declines in productivity, while increasing temperatures allow for the expansion of croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated for by an expansion in regions that were previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when greenhouse gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even for the idealized scenarios investigated in this study.

Climate impacts and adaptation in Germany. Phase 1. Regional climate scenarios for Germany. Final report; Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschland. Phase 1. Erstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien fuer Deutschland. Abschlussbericht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jacob, Daniela; Goettel, Holger; Kotlarski, Sven; Lorenz, Philip; Sieck, Kevin [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie (MPI-M), Hamburg (Germany)

2008-08-15

The regional climate scenarios were evaluated using the climate model REMO. The model calculations were actualized and compared with observed data. The validation of the modeling results was performed using data sets concerning the temporal behavior, the precipitation amounts in several altitudes and the analysis of the probability density function of the air temperature. The results of different climate scenarios are discussed for the mean monthly values of precipitation and temperature. The model allows the prediction of the temporal development and number of summer days and extremely hot days. The change of further indices due to the climatic change caused by increasing greenhouse gas emissions is discussed.

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Erfu; Wu, Zhuo; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Weimin; Wang, Xiaofan

2016-11-01

In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS-II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010-2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad-leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad-leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types. © 2016

Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

2017-04-01

In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

2014-02-01

Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

Science.gov (United States)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize

The Climate Web Library - All the reference reports on climate changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wasse, Gwenael

2012-01-01

This document gathers bibliographical information (title and original title, theme, authors, publication date, link to browse the document, and abstract) of documents addressing climatic change (generalities and mechanisms, temperatures, dry periods and rainfalls, snow and ice, oceans, extreme events, sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and feedbacks, breaking points and hazardous changes), impacts and consequences of climate change (pollution and health, soft water, ecosystems, food, agriculture and forestry, coasts and low altitude areas, populations and societies, economy), emissions of greenhouse gases (present emissions, evolution scenarios)

Climate models and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1997-12-31

In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

Climate models and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1996-12-31

In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

Numerical optimization of actuator trajectories for ITER hybrid scenario profile evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dongen, J van; Hogeweij, G M D; Felici, F; Geelen, P; Maljaars, E

2014-01-01

Optimal actuator trajectories for an ITER hybrid scenario ramp-up are computed using a numerical optimization method. For both L-mode and H-mode scenarios, the time trajectory of plasma current, EC heating and current drive distribution is determined that minimizes a chosen cost function, while satisfying constraints. The cost function is formulated to reflect two desired properties of the plasma q profile at the end of the ramp-up. The first objective is to maximize the ITG turbulence threshold by maximizing the volume-averaged s/q ratio. The second objective is to achieve a stationary q profile by having a flat loop voltage profile. Actuator and physics-derived constraints are included, imposing limits on plasma current, ramp rates, internal inductance and q profile. This numerical method uses the fast control-oriented plasma profile evolution code RAPTOR, which is successfully benchmarked against more complete CRONOS simulations for L-mode and H-mode mode ITER hybrid scenarios. It is shown that the optimized trajectories computed using RAPTOR also result in an improved ramp-up scenario for CRONOS simulations using the same input trajectories. Furthermore, the optimal trajectories are shown to vary depending on the precise timing of the L–H transition. (paper)

Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kassie, B.T.; Asseng, S.; Rotter, R.P.; Hengsdijk, H.; Ruane, A.C.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2015-01-01

Exploring adaptation strategies for different climate change scenarios to support agricultural production and food security is a major concern to vulnerable regions, including Ethiopia. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and explores specific adaptation

Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Trnka, M.; Dubrovský, Martin; Semerádová, Daniela; Žalud, Z.

2004-01-01

Roč. 77, - (2004), s. 229-249 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA521/02/0827 Grant - others:Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno(CZ) J 08/98:432100001 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : climate change scenarios * wheat yields Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy Impact factor: 0.964, year: 2004

White book Escrime. Climatic simulation studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terray, L.; Braconnot, P.

2007-01-01

The ESCRIME project aims to manage the analysis realized on the climatic simulations on the framework of the fourth report of the GIEC (group of intergovernmental experts on the climate evolution), in particularly the simulations based on french models. This white book is constituted by 8 chapters: the global scenario, the climatic sensibility, the variation modes, the regionalization and the extremes, the hydrological cycle, the polar regions and the cryo-sphere, the carbon cycle, detection and attributions. (A.L.B.)

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

The fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in Italy under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T R

2013-01-01

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an "indirect" plant-species-based one and a simple "direct" one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the "direct" approach was unsatisfactory, "indirect" models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species' responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats' distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.

Shallow aquifer response to climate change scenarios in a small catchment in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone.

Science.gov (United States)

Melo, Davi C D; Wendland, Edson

2017-05-01

Water availability restrictions are already a reality in several countries. This issue is likely to worsen due to climate change, predicted for the upcoming decades. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate change on groundwater system in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models (GCM) outputs were used as inputs to a water balance model, which produced recharge estimates for the groundwater model. Recharge was estimated across different land use types considering a control period from 2004 to 2014, and a future period from 2081 to 2099. Major changes in monthly rainfall means are expected to take place in dry seasons. Most of the analysed scenarios predict increase of more than 2 ºC in monthly mean temperatures. Comparing the control and future runs, our results showed a mean recharge change among scenarios that ranged from ~-80 to ~+60%, depending on the land use type. As a result of such decrease in recharge rates, the response given by the groundwater model indicates a lowering of the water table under most scenarios.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suchithra Naish

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Assessing the Robustness of Green Infrastructure under Stochastic Design Storms and Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Chui, T. F. M.; Yang, Y.

2017-12-01

Green infrastructures (GI) have been widely used to mitigate flood risk, improve surface water quality, and to restore predevelopment hydrologic regimes. Commonly-used GI include, bioretention system, porous pavement and green roof, etc. They are normally sized to fulfil different design criteria (e.g. providing certain storage depths, limiting peak surface flow rates) that are formulated for current climate conditions. While GI commonly have long lifespan, the sensitivity of their performance to climate change is however unclear. This study first proposes a method to formulate suitable design criteria to meet different management interests (e.g. different levels of first flush reduction and peak flow reduction). Then typical designs of GI are proposed. In addition, a high resolution stochastic design storm generator using copulas and random cascade model is developed, which is calibrated using recorded rainfall time series. Then, few climate change scenarios are generated by varying the duration and depth of design storms, and changing the parameters of the calibrated storm generator. Finally, the performance of GI with typical designs under the random synthesized design storms are then assessed using numerical modeling. The robustness of the designs is obtained by the comparing their performance in the future scenarios to the current one. This study overall examines the robustness of the current GI design criteria under uncertain future climate conditions, demonstrating whether current GI design criteria should be modified to account for climate change.

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

2014-11-22

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change. PMID:29659603

Refuge Lake Reclassification in 620 Minnesota Cisco Lakes under Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liping Jiang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Cisco (Coregonus artedi is the most common coldwater stenothermal fish in Minnesota lakes. Water temperature (T and dissolved oxygen (DO in lakes are important controls of fish growth and reproduction and likely change with future climate warming. Built upon a previous study, this study uses a modified method to identify which of 620 cisco lakes in Minnesota can still support cisco populations under future climate and therefore be classified as cisco refuge lakes. The previous study used oxythermal stress parameter TDO3, the temperature at DO of 3 mg/L, simulated only from deep virtual lakes to classify 620 cisco lakes. Using four categories of virtual but representative cisco lakes in modified method, a one-dimensional water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used to simulate daily T and DO profiles in 82 virtual lakes under the past (1961–2008 and two future climate scenarios. A multiyear average of 31-day largest TDO3 over variable benchmark (VB periods, AvgATDO3VB, was calculated from simulated T and DO profiles using FishHabitat2013. Contour plots of AvgATDO3VB for four categories of virtual lakes were then developed to reclassify 620 cisco lakes into Tier 1 (AvgATDO3VB < 11 °C or Tier 2 refuge lakes, and Tier 3 non-refuge lakes (AvgATDO3VB > 17 °C. About 20% of 620 cisco lakes are projected to be refuge lakes under future climate scenarios, which is a more accurate projection (improving the prediction accuracy by ~6.5% from the previous study since AvgATDO3VB was found to vary by lake categories.

How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

2015-01-01

When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered. In this......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate, soil, water loss and production parameters. Secondly, the handling of these factors in the inventory modeling is discussed and finally implemented in the case study. Our approach follows a 3-step procedure consisting of: (1) definition of a baseline scenario at the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI...

Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

2016-11-01

Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dubrovský, Martin; Trnka, M.; Holman, I. P.; Svobodová, E.; Harrison, P. A.

2015-01-01

Roč. 128, 3-4 (2015), s. 169-186 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : global Climate Model * ensemble of models * climate change * climate change scenarios * climate change impact indices * Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.344, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1297-7

Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buerger, C.M.; Kolditz, O.; Fowler, H.J.; Blenkinsop, S.

2007-01-01

Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system. - Future climate change and data-based rainfall-runoff predictions are presented for the Upper Gallego

Hydrological simulations driven by RCM climate scenarios at basin scale in the Po River, Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Vezzoli

2014-09-01

Full Text Available River discharges are the main expression of the hydrological cycle and are the results of climate natural variability. The signal of climate changes occurrence raises the question of how it will impact on river flows and on their extreme manifestations: floods and droughts. This question can be addressed through numerical simulations spanning from the past (1971 to future (2100 under different climate change scenarios. This work addresses the capability of a modelling chain to reproduce the observed discharge of the Po River over the period 1971–2000. The modelling chain includes climate and hydrological/hydraulic models and its performance is evaluated through indices based on the flow duration curve. The climate datasets used for the 1971–2000 period are (a a high resolution observed climate dataset, and COSMO-CLM regional climate model outputs with (b perfect boundary condition, ERA40 Reanalysis, and (c suboptimal boundary conditions provided by the global climate model CMCC–CM. The aim of the different simulations is to evaluate how the uncertainties introduced by the choice of the regional and/or global climate models propagate in the simulated discharges. This point is relevant to interpret the results of the simulated discharges when scenarios for the future are considered. The hydrological/hydraulic components are simulated through a physically-based distributed model (TOPKAPI and a water balance model at the basin scale (RIBASIM. The aim of these first simulations is to quantify the uncertainties introduced by each component of the modelling chain and their propagation. Estimation of the overall uncertainty is relevant to correctly understand the future river flow regimes. The results show how bias correction algorithms can help in reducing the overall uncertainty associated to the different stages of the modelling chain.

[Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

2011-04-01

Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

Science.gov (United States)

Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

2016-01-01

Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The evolution of deserts with climatic changes in China since 150 ka B.P.

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

董光荣; 陈惠忠; 王贵勇; 李孝泽; 邵亚军; 金炯

1997-01-01

According to the bioclimatic zones, dune mobility and the fabric characteristics of stratigraphic sedimentary facies, the deserts in China are divided into Eastern, Western, Central and Northwestern deserts. Based on the records of stratigraphical facies, climatic proxies, historical data, etc. in each desert region, the evolution of deserts with climatic changes in time and space since 150 ka B. P. in China are dealt with; then the evolution of deserts in relation to the glacial climatic fluctuations caused by solar radiation changes, underlying surface variation and their feedback mechanism is discussed through comparison with global records; finally, in consideration of global wanning due to increasing of greenhouse gases such as CO2, the possible tendency of the evolution of deserts and the climatic changes is discussed.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Kindermann, Georg E; Schörghuber, Stefan; Linkosalo, Tapio; Sanchez, Anabel; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-02-01

Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010-2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared

Invasion risk of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 climate change scenario in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Min Jung

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes has destroyed local ecosystems in numerous countries, and their population sizes and distribution are likely to increase under global warming. To evaluate the risk of invasion by yellow crazy ant in South Korea, this study identified their potential habitats and predicted their future global distribution by modeling various climate change scenarios using CLIMEX software. Our modeling predicted that future climate conditions in South Korea will be favorable for the yellow crazy ant, and they could invade by the mid-21st century. We highlight the use of predictive algorithms to establish geographical areas with a high risk of yellow crazy ant invasion under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. Keywords: Anoplolepis gracilipes, climate change scenario, CLIMEX, invasive species, yellow crazy ant

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

France's Climate Plan. Implementation of the Grenelle Environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This report discusses the greenhouse gas emission reduction objectives by 2020 set by the French government within the frame of the 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' and also in compliance with France's commitments within international agreements and conferences, and indicates the share of each sector for these reductions (housing and office building, industry, energy, transports). This report first recalls the conclusions of the IPCC, indicates the observed evolutions and tendencies in the case of France, and describes the expected impacts of climate change. It gives an overview of the French climate policy and presents the methodology adopted to update the Climate Plan (scenarios, global assessment, assessment of the impact of some specific measures, cost assessment). Then, it describes French emission evolutions (globally and per sector) according to two scenarios by 2020. Global and transverse policies and measures are discussed, as well as those per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture and forests, energy, wastes, public authorities and local communities, information and education). A global method of assessment of scenarios is presented, and an assessment of policies and measures is reported. A sensitivity study of the impact of the present crisis on France's emissions is also reported. The Kyoto protocol mechanism is described as well as the adaptation process

Dynamic generation of socio-economic scenarios for climate change adaptation: methods, building blocks and examples; Dynamisk generering av socioekonomiska scenarier foer klimatanpassning: metod, byggstenar och exempel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlsen, Henrik; Dreborg, Karl Henrik

2008-05-15

There is a need for socio-economic scenarios in climate change adaptation work in order to help planners cope with uncertainty of the long term development of society. The United Nations' Panel of climate change (IPCC) has developed climate scenarios with substantially different climatic characteristics in a hundred years' perspective. However, in a 25-30 years' perspective, which is very long term in societal planning, the difference between the scenarios is small, while society may develop in different directions. Since measures of adaptation to a changing climate may have different impacts depending on future socio-economic conditions, there is a need for scenarios that describe different possible developments. With a time frame of 25 years scenarios are more useful than projections of single factors such as GDP or demography, because scenarios can capture structural changes of society. This report presents results from a first step of the development of a scenario tool for climate adaptation work in municipalities, regions, and sectors of society in Sweden. The tool is to be further developed in regional case studies with the aim to make it adaptable to the specific focus of interest of various planning agencies. Therefore, we primarily concentrate on developing external factors and different possible future states for these, and a methodology for combining them into scenarios. The report presents the main steps of the scenario methodology and building blocks for the scenario construction consisting of socio-economic factors of special importance for climate adaptation work. The 13 socio-economic factors are: Demography; International mitigation policy; International climate change adaptation policy, Swedish economy; Ideology and social cohesion; Climate change perception; Swedish governance; Environmental policy; Global energy paradigm; Swedish energy paradigm; Land use; Built environment; Transportation. For each factor different possible

Influence of hydrological models on cumulative flow simulation under climate change scenarios : an application in the Baskatong watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chartier, I.

2006-01-01

Since Hydro-Quebec owns and operates many hydroelectric power plants, from which it draws 96 per cent of its electricity, the electric utility found it necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and cumulative flow. This paper described Hydro-Quebec's method for evaluating climatic change impacts using hydrological simulations, with particular reference to the Baskatong watershed in the Outaouais region of Quebec. This basin is one of 5 sub-basins within the Gatineau River. Hydro-Quebec's studies were conducted using 3 hydrological models known as MOHYSE, HSAMI and HYDROTEL; 4 general circulation models (GCM) known as HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM4 and CGCM3; and, 4 greenhouse gas scenarios called A1, B1, A2 and B2. GCMs were shown to have a larger impact on the final hydrological simulation result compared to greenhouse gas scenarios or the hydrological models, although the latter two did have a significant impact on the final result of the simulation. Each scenario provided long term predictions despite the use of different models. The study demonstrated that many regions will have to rely on a range of GCM for more elaborate climatic scenarios. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

2012-01-01

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chalita, S [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d` Aeronomie; Le Treut, H [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

1998-12-31

Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chalita, S. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d`Aeronomie; Le Treut, H. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

1997-12-31

Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

Climate change scenarios of extreme temperatures and atmospheric humidity for Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tejeda-Martinez, A. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)]. E-mail: atejeda@uv.mx; Conde-Alvarez, C. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valencia-Treviso, L.E. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)

2008-10-15

The following study explores climatic change scenarios of extreme temperature and atmospheric humidity for the 2020 and 2050 decades. They were created for Mexico through the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HadCM2 general circulation models. Base scenario conditions were associated with the normal climatological conditions for the period 1961-1990, with a database of 50 surface observatories. It was necessary to empirically estimate the missing data in approximately half of the pressure measurements. For the period 1961-1990, statistical models of the monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and atmospheric humidity (relative and specific) were obtained from the observed data of temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Based on the simulations of the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 models, a future scenario of monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity in climatic change conditions was created. The results shown are for the representative months of winter (January) and summer (July). [Spanish] En este articulo se presentan escenarios de cambio climatico referidos a temperaturas extremas y humedad atmosferica para las decadas de 2020 y 2050. Fueron generados para Mexico a partir de los modelos de circulacion general GFDLR30, ECHAM4 y HADCM2. El escenario base corresponde a las normales climatologicas del periodo 1961-1990 para 50 observatorios de superficie. Para la mitad de ellos fue necesario estimar empiricamente la presion atmosferica a partir de la altitud y para la totalidad se obtuvieron modelos estadisticos de los promedios mensuales de temperaturas maxima y minima asi como de humedad atmosferica (relativa y especifica). Esos modelos estadisticos, combinados con las salidas de los modelos de circulacion general mencionados, produjeron escenarios futuros de medias mensuales de temperaturas extremas y de humedad bajo condiciones de cambio climatico. Se mostraran los resultados para un mes representativo del invierno (enero) y otro del verano

Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae under Future Climate Scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Zuliani

Full Text Available Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD at the border between USA and Canada. We used 50 presence points for C. sonorensis collected in Montana (USA and south-central Alberta (Canada between 2002 and 2012, together with monthly climatic and environmental predictors to develop a series of alternative maximum entropy distribution models. The best distribution model under current climatic conditions was selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and included four predictors: Vapour Pressure Deficit of July, standard deviation of Elevation, Land Cover and mean Precipitation of May. This model was then projected into three climate change scenarios adopted by the IPCC in its 5th assessment report and defined as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Climate change data for each predictor and each RCP were calculated for two time points pooling decadal data around each one of them: 2030 (2021-2040 and 2050 (2041-2060. Our projections showed that the areas predicted to be at moderate-high probability of C. sonorensis occurrence would increase from the baseline scenario to 2030 and from 2030 to 2050 for each RCP. The projection also indicated that the current northern limit of C. sonorensis distribution is expected to move northwards to above 53°N. This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors. Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and

Mass Balance Evolution of Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, 1980–2100, and Its Implications for Surge Recurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Kienholz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Surge-type Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, has undergone strong retreat since it last surged in 1936–1937. To assess its evolution during the late Twentieth and Twenty-first centuries and determine potential implications for surge likelihood, we run a simplified glacier model over the periods 1980–2015 (hindcasting and 2015–2100 (forecasting. The model is forced by daily temperature and precipitation fields, with downscaled reanalysis data used for the hindcasting. A constant climate scenario and an RCP 8.5 scenario based on the GFDL-CM3 climate model are employed for the forecasting. Debris evolution is accounted for by a debris layer time series derived from satellite imagery (hindcasting and a parametrized debris evolution model (forecasting. A retreat model accounts for the evolution of the glacier geometry. Model calibration, validation and parametrization rely on an extensive set of in situ and remotely sensed observations. To explore uncertainties in our projections, we run the glacier model in a Monte Carlo fashion, varying key model parameters and input data within plausible ranges. Our results for the hindcasting period indicate a negative mass balance trend, caused by atmospheric warming in the summer, precipitation decrease in the winter and surface elevation lowering (climate-elevation feedback, which exceed the moderating effects from increasing debris cover and glacier retreat. Without the 2002 rockslide deposits on Black Rapids' lower reaches, the mass balances would be more negative, by ~20% between the 2003 and 2015 mass-balance years. Despite its retreat, Black Rapids Glacier is substantially out of balance with the current climate. By 2100, ~8% of Black Rapids' 1980 area are projected to vanish under the constant climate scenario and ~73% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. For both scenarios, the remaining glacier portions are out of balance, suggesting continued retreat after 2100. Due to mass starvation, a surge in the Twenty

Building an ensemble of climate scenarios for decision-making in hydrology: benefits, pitfalls and uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

2013-04-01

Using climate model output to explore climate change impacts on hydrology requires several considerations, choices and methods in the post treatment of the datasets. In the effort of producing a comprehensive data base of climate change scenarios for over 300 watersheds in the Canadian province of Québec, a selection of state of the art procedures were applied to an ensemble comprising 87 climate simulations. The climate data ensemble is based on global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 3 (CMIP3) and regional climate simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and operational simulations produced at Ouranos. Information on the response of hydrological systems to changing climate conditions can be derived by linking climate simulations with hydrological models. However, the direct use of raw climate model output variables as drivers for hydrological models is limited by issues such as spatial resolution and the calibration of hydro models with observations. Methods for downscaling and bias correcting the data are required to achieve seamless integration of climate simulations with hydro models. The effects on the results of four different approaches to data post processing were explored and compared. We present the lessons learned from building the largest data base yet for multiple stakeholders in the hydro power and water management sector in Québec putting an emphasis on the benefits and pitfalls in choosing simulations, extracting the data, performing bias corrections and documenting the results. A discussion of the sources and significance of uncertainties in the data will also be included. The climatological data base was subsequently used by the state owned hydro power company Hydro-Québec and the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ), the provincial water authority, to simulate future stream flows and analyse the impacts on hydrological indicators. While this

Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markandya, A.; González-Eguino, M.; Criqui, P.; Mima, S.

2014-01-01

In the last decade a number of papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, which would imply multiplying current output by about 19 times in the 21st century. However, natural resource and environmental constraints suggest that future global economic growth may not be so high. Furthermore, the environmental implications of such growth depend on how it is distributed across countries. This paper studies the implications on GHG abatement policies of low global GDP growth and high convergence levels in GDP per capita across countries. A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used to provide detailed projections up to 2050 for the different regions of the world. The results suggest that while low stabilisation could be technically feasible and economically viable for the world in all the scenarios considered, it is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. However, that will imply higher global abatement costs relative to GDP. Convergence in living standards on the other hand places greater pressures in terms of the required reduction in emissions. In general we find that there are major differences between regions in terms of the size and the timing of abatement costs and economic impact. - Highlights: • We study the implications of GDP growth and convergence on climate stabilisation. • A partial equilibrium model (POLES) of the world's energy system is used. • Low climate stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable. • Low stabilisation is more likely to occur with more modest global growth. • Convergence places pressure in terms of the required reduction in emissions

A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moerkerk, Mike van; Crijns-Graus, Wina

2016-01-01

For many countries, the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running. Oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro-chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves. In this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the European Union, United States, China, Japan and India (being the five largest importers of oil in the world), based on their current supplier portfolio. Scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil-supply projections. It is found that risks increase strongly, when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented, especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account, resulting in major oil supply-disruptions. China faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of India, China and US converge over time due to increasing import dependency of China and India. Japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification. For the EU, all figures are strongly influenced by Russia, accounting for 32% of total imports, and to a lesser extent Norway (11%), with high overall risks. - Highlights: • External oil supply risks are assessed up to 2035 under different scenarios. • Included countries are EU, US, China, Japan and India (largest importers of oil). • India, China and EU show increasing oil supply risks in all scenarios. • Strong climate policies are needed to reduce future risks. • A constructed peak oil scenario predicts major oil supply disruptions.

Consideration of environmental change in the safety evaluation: Long-term climate scenarios in the Iberian Peninsula

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recreo Jimenez, F.; Ruiz Rivas, C.

1997-01-01

The main objective of this report is twofold. On the one hand, to define the most likely sequences of climate states in the Iberian Peninsula for a period of 125 Ka into the future, to the next interglacial stage, 125 Ka AP; on the other hand, to establish potential climate scenarios during such a period of time determining also the variability ranges of primary climate and climate-related variables of interest to the post-closure performance assessment and underground repository safety evaluations. The report reviews the potential effects of environmental changes on the performance of underground radioactive waste repositories, emphasizing the consideration given to long-term climatic changes in radioactive waste disposal system safety evaluations. (Author)

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

2018-01-01

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of

Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

2012-02-01

As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1

Risk perception: The social construction of spatial knowledge around climate change-related scenarios in Lima

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miranda Sara, L.; Jameson, S.; Pfeffer, K.; Baud, I.

2016-01-01

Lima's environmental sustainability is threatened by increasing water scarcity, heavy rain events and limited attention for water vulnerability and climate change scenarios. In this paper we examine how knowledge construction and risk perception on water-related disaster risks and vulnerabilities

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O₃ level and of 0.3 mg m³ in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO₂, H₂O₂, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O₃, and increases in CH₄ and VOCs. Increasing NO_x and O₃ levels enhances the nitrogen and O₃ deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m² . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

Use of two indicators for the socio-environmental risk analysis of Northern Mexico under three climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Santos, Armando; Martínez-Santiago, Santos

The aims of this study were to (1) find critical areas susceptible to the degradation of natural resources according to local erosion rates and aridity levels, which were used as environmental quality indicators, and (2) identify areas of risk associated with the presence of natural hazards according to three climate change scenarios defined for Mexico. The focus was the municipality of Lerdo, Durango (25.166° to 25.783° N and 103.333° to 103.983° W), which has dry temperate and very dry climates (BSohw and BWhw). From the Global Circulation Models, downscaling techniques for the dynamic modeling of environmental processes using climate data, historical information, and three regionalized climate change scenarios were applied to determine the impacts from laminar wind erosion rates (LWER) and aridity indices (AI). From the historic period to scenario A2 (ScA2, 2010-2039), regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the LWER was predicted to reach 147.2 t ha -1  year -1 , representing a 0.5 m thickness over nearly 30 years and a change in the AI from 9.3 to 8.7. This trend represents an increase in drought for 70.8 % of the study area and could affect 90 % of the agricultural activities and approximately 80 % of the population living in the southeastern Lerdense territory.

Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianwu Yan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS. Our findings are summarized as follows. (i Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H and evapotranspiration (ET under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a and climate change scenario (A1B are unanimous. (ii Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10% and ET presents an increasing trend (15%. (iv The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

As warm as in Germany or Northern Africa? Climate scenarios for the research programme Climatools; Lika varmt som i Tyskland eller Nordafrika? Klimatscenarier inom forskningsprogrammet Climatools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parmhed, Oskar; Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika

2007-05-15

Future climate change may become larger or smaller depending on the development of greenhouse gas emissions. During 2007 the IPCC released its fourth assessment report on the dominant causes of climate change. At the end of this century it is expected that the global mean temperature may have risen with as much as six degrees. The heating may be even greater in Sweden, with effects on precipitation, vegetation, and snow cover. The Climatools research programme aims at maintaining or increasing the capacity of sectors and regions in Sweden to deliver services to the society by providing decision makers with tools for decision on issues of climate change. The tools are developed in scenario based case studies. Common to all scenarios in Climatools are assumptions on the future climate in Sweden. Within Climatools the effects on three regions are considered: Umeaa, Maelardalen, and Skaane. We have chosen three climate scenarios as a basis for coming work within the programme. These three scenarios are presented in this report, together with their motivation. The effects on the three regions of interest are also described. With these scenarios we want to span a challenging space of outcomes for the future work. The three scenarios are named after what the average temperature in Umeaa equals in terms of todays climate. They are called: Umeaa like Umeaa, Umeaa like Germany, and Umeaa like North Africa

Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Noël, Thomas; Jerez, Sonia; Thais, Françoise; Van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas

2016-01-01

Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales. (letter)

Title:Evaluation of Optimal Water Allocation Scenarios for Bar River of NeishabourUsing WEAP Model Under A2 Climatic Changes Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gh. Ghandhari

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The rapid population growth in Iran and the corresponding increases in water demands, including drinking water, industry, agriculture and urban development and existing constraints necessitate optimal scheduling necessity in use of this crucial source. Furthermore, the phenomenon of climate change as a major challenge for humanity can be considered in future periods. Climate change is caused by human activity have also been identified as significant causes of recent climate change, referred to as "global warming". Climate change indicates an unusual change in the Earth's atmosphere and climate consequences of the different parts of planet Earth. Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions. A Warmer climate exacerbates the hydrologic cycle, altering precipitation, magnitude and timing of runoff. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on water consumption and demand in Bar river basin of Neighbor. Climate change affects precipitation and temperature patterns and hence, may alter on water requirements and demand at three sectors; agriculture, industry and urban water. Materials and Methods: At present, Global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs are the most frequently used models for projection of different climatic change scenarios. AOGCMs models represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalize as many processes as possible. These models are based on physical laws that are provided by mathematical relations. AOGCMs models used for climate studies and climate forecast are run at coarse spatial resolution and are unable to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as clouds and topography. As a result AOGCMs output cannot be used for local impact studies. Therefore, downscaling methods were developed to obtain local-scale weather and climate, particularly at

Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

2014-01-01

We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the "bird-cage" evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia).

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Margaret E K; Smith, Stephen A; Flynn, Rachel S; Donoghue, Michael J

2009-02-01

We integrate climatic niche models and dated phylogenies to characterize the evolution of climatic niches in Oenothera sections Anogra and Kleinia (Onagraceae), and from that we make inferences on diversification in relation to climate. The evolution of climatic tolerances in Anogra + Kleinia has been heterogeneous, across phylogenetic groups and across different dimensions of climate. All the extant taxa occur in semiarid to arid conditions (annual precipitation of 10.1-49.1 cm and high temperatures in the warmest month of 28.5 degrees-40.1 degrees C), but there is striking variation among taxa in their climatic tolerances, especially temperature (minimum temperatures in the coldest month of -14.0 degrees to 5.3 degrees C) and summer versus winter precipitation (precipitation in the warmest quarter of 0.6-19.4 cm). Climatic disparity is especially pronounced in two subclades (californica, deltoides) that radiated in the southwestern United States and California, apparently including both divergent and convergent evolution of climatic tolerances. This niche evolution is remarkable, given the probable timescale of the radiation (approximately 1 million years). We suggest that the spatiotemporal climatic heterogeneity of western North America has served as a driver of diversification. Our data are also consistent with Axelrod's hypothesis that the spread of arid conditions in western North America stimulated diversification of arid-adapted lineages.

Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

2014-05-01

The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use

Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

2014-05-01

Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

Western Pyrenees facing global change: comparison of the effects of climatic and anthropogenic change on water abstractions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terrasson, Isabelle; Chazot, Sebastien; Maton, Laure; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Caballero, Yvan

2014-01-01

In the French Western Pyrenees, the trend to the decrease of low water flows that has been observed during the current years should be going on in the future. This may increase the hydric stress on aquatic ecosystems, and the competition among water uses and users for accessing water resources. The research project ANR-VULCAIN compared the impacts of climatic and socio-economic change on the hydro-systems of the French Western Pyrenees. Modeling and participative prospect analysis have been coupled to quantify the evolution of water abstractions under these two types of change. Socio-economic scenarios have been built together with local stakeholders during workshops (urbanism / land planning on the one hand and agriculture on the other hand). Their results have been quantified with the models developed so as to assess anthropogenic change impacts on domestic and agricultural abstractions. In parallel, the agricultural model has been fed with climatic scenarios so as to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural water needs. In the created scenarios, the evolution of agricultural water needs under climate change have a bigger range than the evolution of abstractions for domestic water and agricultural needs under anthropic change, which are the same order of magnitude. To satisfy this evolution, there are some rooms to maneuver: make distribution modalities more efficient, optimize the management of storage capacity, or use substitution resources. This paper presents the approach that has been followed, and some of the main results. (authors)

Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiebe, Keith; Islam, Shahnila; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Willenbockel, Dirk

2015-01-01

Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

Early Human Evolution in the Western Palaearctic: Ecological Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Carrión, José S.; Rose, James; Stringer, Chris

2011-06-01

This review presents the themes of a special issue dealing with environmental scenarios of human evolution during the Early Pleistocene (2.6-0.78 Ma; MIS 103-MIS 19) and early Middle Pleistocene (0.78-0.47 Ma; MIS 19-base of MIS 12) within the western Palaearctic. This period is one of dramatic changes in the climates and the distribution of Palaearctic biota. These changes have played their role in generating adaptive and phyletic patterns within the human ancestry, involving several species such as Homo habilis, "Homo georgicus", Homo erectus, Homo antecessor and Homo heidelbergensis. In the archaeological record, these species include the Oldowan (Mode 1) and Acheulian (Mode 2) lithic technologies. Taphonomic considerations of palaeoecological research in hominin-bearing sites are provided and evaluated. Syntheses are provided for north Africa, western Asia, the Mediterranean Basin, Britain, and continental Europe. Palaeoenvironmental reconstructions based on multidisciplinary data are given for Ain Boucherit, Ain Hanech and El-Kherba in Algeria, Dmanisi in Georgia, Atapuerca, Cueva Negra, and the Orce Basin in Spain, Monte Poggiolo and Pirro Nord in Italy, Pont-de-Lavaud in France, and Mauer in Germany. The state of the art with the Out of Africa 1 dispersal model is reviewed. A source-sink dynamics model for Palaeolithic Europe is described to explain the morphological disparity of H. heidelbergensis (we will sometimes use the informal name "Heidelbergs") and early Neanderthals. Other aspects debated here are the selective value of habitat mosaics including reconstructions based on mammal and avian databases, and the role of geological instability combined with topographic complexity. This review is completed by addressing the question of whether the appearance of evolutionary trends within hominins is concentrated in regions of highest worldwide biological diversity (biodiversity hotspots). It is concluded that the keys for the activation of evolutionary

Review of interactions between climate policy and energy safety in Europe (ELIPSE project) - Final report, December 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guivarch, Celine; Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Monjon, Stephanie

2013-01-01

The ELIPSE project is a better understanding of the consequences of ambitious energy policies for a secure energy in Europe. It is based on a choice of indicators for a secure energy which are related to availability and diversification, energy dependence and efficiency, energy cost for the society, and acceptability. Four RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios are selected. Their results are discussed, notably in terms of evolution of emissions, of evolution of the carbon tax, of carbon-tax variability, of GDP growth according to scenarios with or without climate policy, of primary energy supply with or without climate policy, of oil supply in Europe and oil prices with or without climate policy. The authors discuss the perspectives of evolution of energy security in Europe on the short, medium or long term, and the influence of different factors. They discuss the development and spreading of low carbon technologies (renewable energies, carbon capture and storage, electric vehicles)

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. B. B. Booth

2013-04-01

Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

Climate's evolution and the industrial revolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the evolution of climate change and the role that man has played in causing these fluctuations. The chief cause has been the ever-increasing use of fossil fuels. A comparison is made of the amount of energy used to earn each dollar of gross national product (GNP) in industrialized nations. The use of fossil fuels in developing countries is expected to rise as their populations increase and they shift from vegetation-derived fuels to fossil fuels

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-12

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Hirschi

2012-02-01

Full Text Available As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D.D.

2013-01-01

This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid Balali

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Examining Long Term Climate Related Security Risks through the Use of Gaming and Scenario Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2016-10-24

for example, the India player felt they had to achieve near-peer military parity with the China and Southwest Asia players before they would invest...the game scenario, we use gender neutral pronouns (e.g., they, their) throughout. 1. David King et al., Climate Change: A Risk Assessment, ed

Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

1998-12-31

Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Ronald Raunikar; Joseph Buongiorno; James A. Turner; Shushuai Zhu

2010-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and to represent the utilization of fuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the “story lines” prepared by the IPCC. Each scenario has projections of population and...

Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland)

2011-12-15

Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 120,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)

Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H.

2011-12-01

Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 120,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 120,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)

Climate scenarios for Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 100,000 years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pimenoff, N.; Venaelaeinen, A.; Jaervinen, H.

2011-01-01

Posiva Oy is planning to dispose of spent nuclear fuel in a repository, to be constructed at a depth of 400 m in the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto, Finland. Planning the storage requires careful consideration of many aspects, including an assessment of long-term repository safety. For estimating possible climate states at Olkiluoto on a time-scale of 100,000 years, we analyze climate simulations of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (CLIMBER-2) coupled with an ice sheet model (SICOPOLIS). The simulations into the future clearly show that the onset of the next glaciation is strongly dependent on the Earth's orbital variations and the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. It is evident that due to global warming, the climate of the next centuries will be warmer and wetter than at present. Most likely, due to global warming and low variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun, the present interglacial will last for at least the next 30,000 years. Further, the future simulations showed that the insolation minima on the Northern Hemisphere 50,000-60,000 and 90,000-100,000 years after the present hold a potential for the onset of the next glaciation. Hence, on a time-scale of 100,000 years, one must take into account climate periods lasting several thousand years having the following features: an interglacial climate, a periglacial climate, a climate with an ice sheet margin near Olkiluoto, a glacial climate with an ice sheet covering Olkiluoto, and a climate with Olkiluoto being depressed below sea level after glaciation due to isostatic depression. Due to the uncertainties related to the evolution of the future climate, it is recommended the simulations into the far future to be used only qualitatively. Quantitative information about glacial climate is achieved from the reconstructions and simulations of the past climate. (orig.)

Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zickfeld, K.; Levermann, A.; Kuhlbrodt, T.; Rahmstorf, S.; Morgan, M.G.; Keith, D.W.

2007-01-01

We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC

Phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism and evolution of climatic suitability in Neotropical Angraecinae (Vandeae, Orchidaceae) and their closest African relatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolanowska, Marta; Grochocka, Elżbieta; Konowalik, Kamil

2017-01-01

In the present study we investigate the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) within the American species of angraecoid orchids ( Campylocentrum and Dendrophylax ) and their closest relatives in the Old World ( Angraecum ) using ecological niche modelling (ENM). The predicted niche occupancy profiles were matched with the outcomes of previous phylogenetic studies to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within the orchid group studied and evaluate the role of niche differentiation in the speciation of Angraecinae. No correlation between preferred niches and taxonomic relationships within the orchid group studied was revealed. The climatic suitability of the majority of the species overlapped each other, either fully or partially. This pattern is also present in the species of other orchid genera. Our research confirms a significant level of PNC in Orchidaceae, even within taxa exhibiting a transatlantic disjunction. The analysis of the evolution of climatic suitability indicated that the adaptation to various climatic conditions is not a factor that has driven speciation within orchids studied.

Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

2017-11-01

Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

Climate and shoreline in Sweden during Weichsel and the next 150,000 years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moren, L.; Paasse, T.

2001-08-01

In this report scenarios of the climate, ice sheet and shoreline in Sweden during the Weichselian and the next 150,000 years are presented. The scenarios are intended to be used in performance and safety analysis of a deep geological repository, as a framework for the analysis of the impact of climate induced changes. First scenarios of the past and future climate are lined out. Based on these and observations of past ice sheets, scenarios of the evolution of the Scandinavian ice sheet are described. Finally the evolution of the shoreline is calculated using an empirical model based on observations from the Late Weichselian and the Holocene. There can be several causes of climate change. External causes are variation of solar radiation and dissipation of internal earth energy producing volcanism or shifts in earth physiography. Change in the internal dynamics of the climate system is another source of climate change. The concentration of different gases in the atmosphere affects the heat balance and the meteorological processes and thereby climate. Important for the climate are also the dynamics of ocean currents and ice sheets, albedo and biological processes. Changes of the earth orbit around the sun cause variations in the seasonal distribution and amount of solar radiation reaching the earth. Records of past climate show that there is a correlation between these variations and long-term climate changes. The theory that climate changes are triggered by variations in the earth orbital parameters is refereed to as the astronomical limate theory or the Milankowich theory. In spite of some ambiguities this theory is generally accepted. In this report results from three different models based on the astronomical climate theory are utilised. Simulations are compared to observations of past climate and ice sheets. The climate and ice sheet scenario for the Weichselian is based on deep-sea sediment data and a reconstruction of the Scandinavian ice sheet. The future

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

Science.gov (United States)

Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.

2015-01-01

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Using Scenario Planning to Evaluate the Impacts of Climate Change on Wildlife Populations and Communities in the Florida Everglades

Science.gov (United States)

Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.

2015-04-01

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Scenarios for the nonlinear evolution of alpha particle induced Alfven wave instability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berk, H.L.; Breizman, B.N.; Ye, Huanchun.

1992-03-01

Various nonlinear scenarios are given for the evolution of energetic particles that are slowing down in a background plasma and simultaneously causing instability of the background plasma waves. If the background damping is sufficiently weak, a steady-state wave is established as described by Berk and Breizman. For larger background damping rate pulsations develop. Saturation occurs when the wave amplitude rises to where the wave trapping frequency equals the growth rate. The wave then damps due to the small background dissipation present and a relatively long quiet interval exists between bursts while the free energy of the distribution is refilled by classical transport. In this scenario the anomalous energy loss of energetic particles due to diffusion is small compared to the classical collisional energy exchange with the background plasma. However, if at the trapping frequency, the wave amplitude is large enough to cause orbit stochasticity, a phase space ''explosion'' occurs where the wave amplitudes rise to higher levels which leads to rapid loss of energetic particles

Methodology implementation for multi objective optimisation for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freynet, David

2016-01-01

The issue of the evolution French nuclear fleet can be considered through the study of nuclear transition scenarios. These studies are of paramount importance as their results can greatly affect the decision making process, given that they take into account industrial concerns, investments, time, and nuclear system complexity. Such studies can be performed with the COSI code (developed at the CEA/DEN), which enables the calculation of matter inventories and fluxes across the fuel cycle (nuclear reactors and associated facilities), especially when coupled with the CESAR depletion code. The studies today performed with COSI require the definition of the various scenarios' input parameters, in order to fulfil different objectives such as minimising natural uranium consumption, waste production and so on. These parameters concern the quantities and the scheduling of spent fuel destined for reprocessing, and the number, the type and the commissioning dates of deployed reactors.This work aims to develop, validate and apply an optimisation methodology coupled with COSI, in order to determine optimal nuclear transition scenarios for a multi-objective platform. Firstly, this methodology is based on the acceleration of scenario evaluation, enabling the use of optimisation methods in a reasonable time-frame. With this goal in mind, artificial neural network irradiation surrogate models are created with the URANIE platform (developed at the CEA/DEN) and are implemented within COSI. The next step in this work is to use, adapt and compare different optimisation methods, such as URANIE's genetic algorithm and particle swarm methods, in order to define a methodology suited to this type of study. This methodology development is based on an incremental approach which progressively adds objectives, constraints and decision variables to the optimisation problem definition. The variables added, which are related to reactor deployment and spent fuel reprocessing strategies, are chosen

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

Science.gov (United States)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

2014-01-01

A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

Science.gov (United States)

Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

2014-05-01

There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.