WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change risks

  1. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  2. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  3. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  4. Identification and Categorization of Climate Change Risks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yuehong; WU Shaohong; DAI Erfu; LIU Dengwei; YIN Yunhe

    2008-01-01

    The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable,which may put many social,biological,and geophysical systems in the world at risk.In this paper,we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change.Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council.We proposed that "uncertainty" could be treated as the classification criteria.Based on this,we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory,in which "confidence" and "likelihood",the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC,were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types.According to the maximum principle,most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types.In the mean time,given that not all the quantitative terms are available,a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method.Finally,we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization,which might lay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.

  5. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    such as deltas, estuaries and wetlands, where many large cities and industrial areas are located. Integrated risk assessment tools for considering the effects of climate change and related uncertainties. Presents latest insights on coastal engineering defenses. Provides integrated guidelines for setting up......Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  6. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.; Zanuttigh, Barbara; Andersen, Thomas Lykke;

    2014-01-01

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, Coastal Risk Managem...

  7. Climate Change and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Kelman, I.

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews climate change within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR), analyzing how climate change is mentioned in the framework’s text and the potential implications for dealing with climate change within the context of disaster risk reduction. Three main categories are examined. First, climate change affecting disaster risk and disasters, demonstrating too much emphasis on the single hazard driver and diminisher of climate change. Second, cross-secto...

  8. Risk Communication, Moral Emotions and Climate Change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, Sabine

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt

  9. Built cultural heritage facing climate change risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The built cultural heritage would face important risks in the frame of climate change. They are well identified by the major international organizations, but only in a qualitative manner, and mainly refer on the action of water or on its absence. The most active research is supported by the European Commission. The results obtained by the European project 'Noah's Ark' are the most important at the day. Dose-Response Functions with predictive climate models are used to produce vulnerability maps at a European scale of which one example is presented. The recommendations of the Council of Europe for policy makers and researchers are developed as a conclusion. Three case studies are synthesized in annex of this article: Venice, London and Paris. (authors)

  10. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and cultu

  11. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Ch

  12. The Evaluation of Climate Change Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Popescu, Constantin; Maria-Luiza HRESTIC

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, it is acknowledged that climatic changes represent a serious threat for the environment and, so, this problem has been approached at numerous conferences, conventions and summits. The climate is strongly influenced by the changes in the atmospheric concentrations of certain gases that hold the solar radiations on the Earth’s surface (the greenhouse effect). The water vapors and the carbon dioxide (CO2) present in the atmosphere have always generated a natural greenhouse effect, with...

  13. Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

    2013-11-30

    Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks.

  14. Risks Are From Change Of Climate In Ukraine

    OpenAIRE

    Victoria Shtets

    2011-01-01

    The article considered the most serious risks for the Ukraine from climate change, in particular the direct and indirect risks that report the problems with which Ukraine has already faced and are still waiting for her if she has not react on the global warming. Also some adaptation actions aspects are given for solving problems regarding climate change.

  15. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

  16. The Evaluation of Climate Change Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin POPESCU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, it is acknowledged that climatic changes represent a serious threat for the environment and, so, this problem has been approached at numerous conferences, conventions and summits. The climate is strongly influenced by the changes in the atmospheric concentrations of certain gases that hold the solar radiations on the Earth’s surface (the greenhouse effect. The water vapors and the carbon dioxide (CO2 present in the atmosphere have always generated a natural greenhouse effect, without which the Earth surface would be 33o C lower than it is today. Other greenhouse gases are: methane (CH4, nitrogen protoxide (N2O, and the halogenated compounds such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs. During the last hundred years, man’s activity has led to the increase of the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases and of other pollutants, its consequence being the increase of the average global temperature. Although it has not been calculated exactly how much of this warming can be attributed to the greenhouse gases, there is evidence that human activity contributes to global warming. The main causes leading to the accentuation of the greenhouse effect are the burning of the fossil fuels, deforestations, cement production, waste disposal, refrigeration etc. The climatic changes triggered by the greenhouse gases will have consequences that have already made themselves visible, causing: the increase of the sea level and the possible flooding of the low areas; the melting of the icecap; the modification of the precipitations regime, with consequences like the increase of the floods and droughts frequency; changes in the occurrence of climatic extremes, especially in the occurrence of the high, extreme temperatures. All these will have a direct impact on ecosystems, health, some key economic sectors such as agriculture and on water resources.

  17. African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph

    2013-01-01

    Climate change impact assessments on agriculture are subject to large uncertainties, as demonstrated in the present review of recent studies for Africa. There are multiple reasons for differences in projections, including uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and patterns of climate change; assumptions on future management, aggregation, and spatial extent; and methodological differences. Still, all projections agree that climate change poses a significant risk to African agriculture. Most projections also see the possibility of increasing agricultural production under climate change, especially if suitable adaptation measures are assumed. Climate change is not the only projected pressure on African agriculture, which struggles to meet demand today and may need to feed an additional one billion individuals by 2050. Development strategies are urgently needed, but they will need to consider future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing synergies between climate change adaptation and development can be exploited.

  18. Climate change and coastal aquaculture farmers’ risk perceptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahsan, Dewan; Brandt, Urs Steiner

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of risk perception in relation to climate change threats, comparison of risk perceptions in two different regions, and derives general results of what affect peoples’ level of risk perceptions. Revelation of individual risk perception is essential for local acceptan...

  19. Managing climate change risk : emerging financial sector expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engagement of the financial sector in the climate change debate is apparent, with social investors and advocacy groups launching 32 climate change related shareholder resolutions with American and Canadian energy companies in 2003. Eos Research and Consulting Ltd. recently conducted a study to examine emerging standards for how energy companies manage climate change related risks. A survey was conducted in the first part of the study to determine the environmental awareness of energy companies. Financial firms were asked whether they sought information concerning GHG inventories; projections of future emissions; action plans for addressing climate change and energy efficiency; evaluation of relative risk; estimation of cost of carbon; assessment of financial impact; evaluation of future regulations; and emissions trading activity. The second part of the study compared the response of 11 leading energy companies. The result was 2 opposing views on how climate change risks should be managed. The survey revealed that while most mainstream financial institutions are not paying much attention to climate change issues, socially responsible investment (SRI) investors are aware and working to factor climate change risk management information into their activities. In addition, SRI is growing at a faster pace than other investment segments, which may lead to greater future expectations for energy companies' climate change risk management efforts. It was concluded that the financial sector may emerge as an important source of direction that will guide energy companies in their future efforts to manage climate change risks. The five trends that contribute to the sector's emerging role are the continuing influence of advocacy groups; evolution of socially responsible approaches to investment; growing concerns for reputation; development of financial risk assessment approaches in terms of climate change; and, increase focus on corporate governance issues. 15 refs., 2 tabs., 1

  20. Climate change and drought risks for agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, J.; Put, M.; Zaal, F.; Keulen, van H.

    2004-01-01

    Changes in rainfall patterns and risk of crop failure are discussed in this chapter. Agriculture is by far the most important economic activity in the region. The success of this economic activity relies heavily on water availability during the growing season. For rainfed production systems timing a

  1. Climate change : we are at risk : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the period November 2002 to May 2003, the effects of climate change on Canada's agricultural and forestry sectors and rural communities were investigated by the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. The Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, and the 1998 ice storm were reviewed, along with the forest fires in Western Canada during the summer of 2003 and the unusual succession of dry years. This paper includes a discussion on climate change, agriculture, forests, water, rural communities, Aboriginal people, and potential adaptation options. Seven recommendations were made: (1) climate change impacts and adaptation efforts should be coordinated by the Government of Canada, (2) substantial increase in funding and allocation of resources for climate change impacts and adaptation research is required, (3) make water research a national priority, with emphasis on water supply and demand, (4) expand and increase the role and resources of the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN), (5) develop and quickly implement an education and communication strategy concerning risks and challenges associated with climate change and its impacts on agriculture and forests, (6) develop a long term safety net to allow farmers the opportunity to take advantage of possible opportunities resulting from climate change, and (7) implement a systematic review of existing and new programs and policies to assess climate change risks and opportunities. refs., figs

  2. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  3. Multi-risk assessment: from natural hazards to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    The World Bank report on the main hotspots of natural hazards highlights that million people in the world are relatively highly exposed to at least two hazards and additional impacts on natural and human systems can be posed by climate change. Therefore, a major challenge for natural hazard and climate impact research is to develop new methods and tools for the aggregation of cumulative effects expected from multiple impacts forced by natural and anthropogenic drivers across different regions and sectors, taking into account changing climate, exposure and vulnerability. So far, a hazard by hazard approach has been generally applied for evaluating the consequences of natural and climate change hazards on the analyzed region (e.g. heavy precipitations, floods, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surges). However, different natural hazards and climate-related impacts affecting a region should be handled according to a multi-risk approach in order to aggregate, compare and rank different kinds of concurrent impacts caused by climate change. Several EU funded projects (e.g. ESPON-HAZARD, ARMONIA, MATRIX) were developed so far in order to provide sound scientific advancement towards the elaboration of multi-risk approaches. A full multi-risk approach entails both a multi-hazard and multi-vulnerability perspective. However, internationally, most of the work concerning multi-hazards focused especially on natural hazards (e.g. flooding, storm surges, landslides, seismicity, droughts) affecting the same area. Moreover, multi-risk approaches developed so far refer only to the assessment of different hazards and rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities for different exposed elements), also called multi-hazard risk assessment. A relevant challenge is therefore to develop a comprehensive formal approach for the assessment of different natural and climate-induced hazards and risks at the regional scale. A critical review of existing

  4. Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The functioning of many ecosystems and their associated resilience could become severely compromised by climate change over the 21st century. We present a global risk analysis of terrestrial ecosystem changes based on an aggregate metric of joint changes in macroscopic ecosystem features including vegetation structure as well as carbon and water fluxes and stores. We apply this metric to global ecosystem simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL) under 58 WCRP CMIP3 climate change projections. Given the current knowledge of ecosystem processes and projected climate change patterns, we find that severe ecosystem changes cannot be excluded on any continent. They are likely to occur (in > 90% of the climate projections) in the boreal-temperate ecotone where heat and drought stress might lead to large-scale forest die-back, along boreal and mountainous tree lines where the temperature limitation will be alleviated, and in water-limited ecosystems where elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration will lead to increased water use efficiency of photosynthesis. Considerable ecosystem changes can be expected above 3 K local temperature change in cold and tropical climates and above 4 K in the temperate zone. Sensitivity to temperature change increases with decreasing precipitation in tropical and temperate ecosystems. In summary, there is a risk of substantial restructuring of the global land biosphere on current trajectories of climate change.

  5. Urban focus in climate change adaptation and risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Wamsler, Christine

    2014-01-01

    Urban communities will face increased risks, such as floods, landslides, heat stress and fires and water scarcity, as a consequence of climate change. The latest IPCC report (AR5) has for the first time devoted a whole chapter to urban areas. The assessment stresses the need to tackle urban risk through more effective adaptation planning.

  6. An Overview of Occupational Risks From Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applebaum, Katie M; Graham, Jay; Gray, George M; LaPuma, Peter; McCormick, Sabrina A; Northcross, Amanda; Perry, Melissa J

    2016-03-01

    Changes in atmosphere and temperature are affecting multiple environmental indicators from extreme heat events to global air quality. Workers will be uniquely affected by climate change, and the occupational impacts of major shifts in atmospheric and weather conditions need greater attention. Climate change-related exposures most likely to differentially affect workers in the USA and globally include heat, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, other chemicals, pathogenic microorganisms, vector-borne diseases, violence, and wildfires. Epidemiologic evidence documents a U-, J-, or V-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Whereas heat-related morbidity and mortality risks are most evident in agriculture, many other outdoor occupational sectors are also at risk, including construction, transportation, landscaping, firefighting, and other emergency response operations. The toxicity of chemicals change under hyperthermic conditions, particularly for pesticides and ozone. Combined with climate-related changes in chemical transport and distribution, these interactions represent unique health risks specifically to workers. Links between heat and interpersonal conflict including violence require attention because they pose threats to the safety of emergency medicine, peacekeeping and humanitarian relief, and public safety professionals. Recommendations for anticipating how US workers will be most susceptible to climate change include formal monitoring systems for agricultural workers; modeling scenarios focusing on occupational impacts of extreme climate events including floods, wildfires, and chemical spills; and national research agenda setting focusing on control and mitigation of occupational susceptibility to climate change. PMID:26842343

  7. An Overview of Occupational Risks From Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applebaum, Katie M; Graham, Jay; Gray, George M; LaPuma, Peter; McCormick, Sabrina A; Northcross, Amanda; Perry, Melissa J

    2016-03-01

    Changes in atmosphere and temperature are affecting multiple environmental indicators from extreme heat events to global air quality. Workers will be uniquely affected by climate change, and the occupational impacts of major shifts in atmospheric and weather conditions need greater attention. Climate change-related exposures most likely to differentially affect workers in the USA and globally include heat, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, other chemicals, pathogenic microorganisms, vector-borne diseases, violence, and wildfires. Epidemiologic evidence documents a U-, J-, or V-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Whereas heat-related morbidity and mortality risks are most evident in agriculture, many other outdoor occupational sectors are also at risk, including construction, transportation, landscaping, firefighting, and other emergency response operations. The toxicity of chemicals change under hyperthermic conditions, particularly for pesticides and ozone. Combined with climate-related changes in chemical transport and distribution, these interactions represent unique health risks specifically to workers. Links between heat and interpersonal conflict including violence require attention because they pose threats to the safety of emergency medicine, peacekeeping and humanitarian relief, and public safety professionals. Recommendations for anticipating how US workers will be most susceptible to climate change include formal monitoring systems for agricultural workers; modeling scenarios focusing on occupational impacts of extreme climate events including floods, wildfires, and chemical spills; and national research agenda setting focusing on control and mitigation of occupational susceptibility to climate change.

  8. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  9. Avoiding Drought Risks and Social Conflict Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towler, E.; Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.

    2014-12-01

    Traditional drought research has mainly focused on physical drought risks and less on the cultural processes that also contribute to how drought risks are perceived and managed. However, as society becomes more vulnerable to drought and climate change threatens to increase water scarcity, it is clear that drought research would benefit from a more interdisciplinary approach. To assess avoided drought impacts from reduced climate change, drought risks need to be assessed in the context of both climate prediction as well as improved understanding of socio-cultural processes. To this end, this study explores a risk-based framework to combine physical drought likelihoods with perceived risks from stakeholder interviews. Results are presented from a case study on how stakeholders in south-central Oklahoma perceive drought risks given diverse cultural beliefs, water uses, and uncertainties in future drought prediction. Stakeholder interviews (n=38) were conducted in 2012 to understand drought risks to various uses of water, as well as to measure worldviews from the cultural theory of risk - a theory that explains why people perceive risks differently, potentially leading to conflict over management decisions. For physical drought risk, drought projections are derived from a large ensemble of future climates generated from two RCPs that represent higher and lower emissions trajectories (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). These are used to develop a Combined Drought Risk Matrix (CDRM) that characterizes drought risks for different water uses as the products of both physical likelihood (from the climate ensemble) and risk perception (from the interviews). We use the CRDM to explore the avoided drought risks posed to various water uses, as well as to investigate the potential for reduction of conflict over water management.

  10. Risk communication: Anthropogenically induced climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to reduce the risk of the greenhouse effect, conventional thermal power plants should be substituted by maximum energy conservation, use of renewable energies, and low-risk, high-tech nuclear power plants. Motor traffic exhausts could be eliminated by alternative fuels, and trace gas reducers, such as tropical rain forests, preserved by financial adjustments. CFC's are to be reduced in any case in order to lower the ozone risk. (DG)

  11. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world. PMID:17107430

  12. Learning and Risk Exposure in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, F.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is a gradual process most apparent over long time-scales and large spatial scales, but it is experienced by those affected as changes in local weather. Climate change will gradually push the weather people experience outside the bounds of historic norms, resulting in unprecedented and extreme weather events. However, people do have the ability to learn about and respond to a changing climate. Therefore, connecting the weather people experience with their perceptions of climate change requires understanding how people infer the current state of the climate given their observations of weather. This learning process constitutes a first-order constraint on the rate of adaptation and is an important determinant of the dynamic adjustment costs associated with climate change. In this paper I explore two learning models that describe how local weather observations are translated into perceptions of climate change: an efficient Bayesian learning model and a simpler rolling-mean heuristic. Both have a period during which the learner's beliefs about the state of the climate are different from its true state, meaning the learner is exposed to a different range of extreme weather outcomes then they are prepared for. Using the example of surface temperature trends, I quantify this additional exposure to extreme heat events under both learning models and both RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Risk exposure increases for both learning models, but by substantially more for the rolling-mean learner. Moreover, there is an interaction between the learning model and the rate of climate change: the inefficient rolling-mean learner benefits much more from the slower rates of change under RCP 2.6 then the Bayesian. Finally, I present results from an experiment that suggests people are able to learn about a trending climate in a manner consistent with the Bayesian model.

  13. Climate Change or Nuclear Power - Which Risk do we Prefer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and nuclear power provide two of the biggest technological risks of our times. Both involve widespread risks, long-term wastes and inter-generational equity, but in rather different ways. If it came to a choice, which is the worse set of risks to run? Serious doubts have been raised whether the implementation of renewable energies and energy saving are able in practice to deliver quickly enough the radical reductions of CO2 emissions that are needed to tackle climate change. Some countries may face a dilemma - to continue another generation of nuclear power or to accept that its CO2 emissions will rise when current nuclear stations finish their time? This paper compares the risks, and explores the ethical issues around which a society would have to weigh up such a choice, the role of the precautionary principle, and the place of expert and lay evaluations of risk (full text of contribution)

  14. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.;

    Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels, are ...

  15. Forests under climate change: potential risks and opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Lasch-Born

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will affect forests in Germany through the end of this century. The impacts of climate change on forest productivity, water budget and the associated biotic and abiotic risks are relevant for the forestry sector and its decision makers. We analysed the possible impacts of climate change on Germany’s forests using a variety of climate scenarios generated with the regional statistical climate model STARS and the process-based forest growth model 4C. The focus of our analyses was on mono-specific stands of the main tree species Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst., Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L., European beech (Fagus sylvatica L., oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl., and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. Franco. The impacts on net primary production of forest stands are mainly positive for needle tree species and more negative at low elevation, water-limited sites for broadleaved tree species like beech, which is in contrast to the overall tendency of deterioration of the annual percolation rates independent of tree species. The application of a fire danger index and a nun moth risk species index according to Zwölfer indicates that Germany’s forests will experience, under the warmer and dryer climate described by RCP8.5, higher potential risks from fire and some specific pest species. An integrated evaluation reflecting the potentials and risks of forests under RCP8.5 for the German natural regions illustrates that the dryer (water-limited low elevated regions reaching from southwestern to northeastern Germany will benefit less from the assumed climate change than regions in the Northwest and forest sites at higher altitudes, which are mainly temperature limited.

  16. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  17. Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor : Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World

    OpenAIRE

    Baker, Judy L.

    2012-01-01

    Poor people living in slums are at particularly high risk from the impacts of climate change and natural hazards. They live on the most vulnerable land within cities, typically areas deemed undesirable by others and thus affordable. This study analyzes the key challenges facing the urban poor, given the risks associated with climate change and disasters, particularly with regard to the del...

  18. Empirical Analysis of Urban Residents’ Perceived Climatic Change Risks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peihui; DAI; Lingling; HUANG

    2014-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human survival and security,urban development is even more profound,and receives more and more attention. To explore the perceived status of urban residents for the risks of climate change and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,taking Wuhan for example,from the microscopic point of urban residents,we use factor analysis to classify the perceived risks and recognized risk reduction measures,use cluster analysis to divide the urban residents into five groups,and use variance analysis to explore differences in the choice of measures between different cluster groups. We draw the following conclusions: the risk of deterioration of the ecological environment,the risk of economic damage,the risk of damage to the mental health,the risk of damage to the physical health and the risk of damage to the political harmony are the main risks of climate change for urban residents; individuals and families to develop good habits,businesses and governments to strengthen energy conservation,schools and other agencies to carry on the propaganda and education,carrying out multi-agent environment improvement,learn from the West are their recognized risk reduction measures. Depending on the perceived risk,the urban residents are clustered into five groups: those who are concerned about the body and politics,those who are concerned about the mental health,those who are concerned about the economic development,those who are concerned about the ecological safety,and those who ignore the climatic change. For the roles of individual and the family,business and government in the environmental protection,different groups have unanimous views,while for other measures,different groups have different understanding. It is concluded that individuals and families to develop environmentally friendly habits,government to strengthen regulation,businesses to take environmental responsibility,schools to strengthen publicity and education,and exploring

  19. Australia's dengue risk driven by human adaptation to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel W Beebe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region's urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Having collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegypti's distribution under today's climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is mediated more by human activity than by climate. Synthesis of this data with dengue transmission climate limits in Australia derived from historical dengue epidemics suggested that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks in Australia could result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti which would present a risk of dengue transmission in most major cities during their warm summer months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the debate of the role climate change will play in the future range of dengue in Australia, we conclude that the increased risk of an Ae. aegypti range expansion in Australia would be due not directly to climate change but rather to human adaptation to the current and forecasted regional drying

  20. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Mosedale

    Full Text Available The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  1. Interactive Simulator for Teaching of Climate Change Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Torres Valle

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of simulators is good practice for teaching or training in the operation of complex processes. This is the case of climate change, the one associated with multiple phenomena that cannot be played as isolated laboratory practices. The experts themselves of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC have suggested qualitative indicators tomeasure the components of this risk (hazard, vulnerability and exposure and still, its complexity is remarkable for the multi, inter and transdisciplinary knowledge necessary for evaluation. One of the most important challenges of teaching these topics is the multiplicity of combinations that can occur for a variety of inputs of tax risk factors in each area of the world studied. Therefore, the presentation of an interdependent matrix system that maps the global and regional variables concerning the risks of climate change and a recursive system for evaluation are the basis of the simulator proposed in this paper. The same has been tested with global and regional scenarios, which have been incorporated into computercode developed for the preparation of prewritten didactic exercises and a recommendation for the implementation of new case studies.

  2. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  3. Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

  4. Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

  5. A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Papathoma-Köhle

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014, suggests that an important increase in frequency and magnitude of hazardous processes related to climate change is to be expected at the global scale. Consequently, it is necessary to improve the level of preparedness and the level of public awareness, to fill institutional gaps, and to improve territorial planning in order to reduce the potentially disastrous impact of natural hazards related to climate change. This paper mainly presents a new framework for risk assessment and mapping which enables countries with limited data sources to assess their risk to climate change related hazards at the local level, in order to reduce potential costs, to develop risk reduction strategies, to harmonize their preparedness efforts with neighboring countries and to deal with trans-boundary risk. The methodology is based on the European Commission’s “Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management” (2010 and considers local restrictions, such as a lack of documentation of historic disastrous events, spatial and other relevant data, offering alternative options for risk assessment, and the production of risk maps. The methodology is based on event tree analysis. It was developed within the European project SEERISK and adapted for a number of climate change-related hazards including floods, heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Additionally, the framework offers the possibility for risk assessment under different future scenarios. The implications for climate change adaptation policy are discussed.

  6. Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    William B. Samuels; David E. Amstutz; Heather A. Crowley

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to:1) describe the effects of climate change in the Arctic and its impact on circulation,2) describe hindcast data used in the Ocean Energy Management,Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model,3)evaluate alternatives such as using forecast results in the OSRA model,and 4) recommend future studies.Effects of climate change on winds,sea ice,ocean circulation and river discharge in the Arctic and impacts on surface circulation can be evaluated only through a series of specially designed numerical experiments using highresolution coupled ice-ocean models to elucidate the sensitivity of the models to various parameterizations or forcings.The results of these experiments will suggest what mechanisms are most important in controlling model response and guide inferences on how OSRA may respond to different climate change scenarios.Climatological change in the Arctic could lead to drastic alterations of wind,sea ice cover and concentration,and surface current fields all of which would influence hypothetical oil spill trajectories.Because of the pace at which conditions are changing,BOEMRE needs to assess whether forecast ice/ocean model results might contain useful information for the purposes of calculating hypothetical oil spill trajectories.

  7. Climate Change Impacts and Risks for Animal Health in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Forman, S.; Hungerford, N.; Yamakawa, M; Yanase, T.; Tsai, H J; Joo, Y.S.; Yang, D. K.; Nha, J. J.

    2008-01-01

    The threat of climate change and global warming is now recognised worldwide and some alarming manifestations of change have occurred. The Asian continent, because of its size and diversity, may be affected significantly by the consequences of climate change, and its new status as a 'hub' of livestock production gives it an important role in mitigating possible impacts of climate variability on animal health. Animal health may be affected by climate change in four ways: heat-related diseases a...

  8. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  9. The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

    2000-06-01

    The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

  10. Law, climate change and the arctic: legal governance of climate change induced risks in the arctic ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Meyenhofer, Nadja

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is the cause of a variety of new environmental risks, which profoundly affect the Earth's ecosystems. Maintaining fragile regions, such as the Arctic and protecting them against threats is in this context of utmost importance, as their ecosystems provide many valuable goods and services human well-being depends upon. This thesis offers a definition of climate change induced risks and outlines how they are being governed under existing international, regional and domestic la...

  11. Against the tide: climate change and high-risk cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodman, David

    2008-11-15

    In the world's poorest and most vulnerable nations, most cities and towns face a distinct dual pressure: rapidly growing population and high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Drought, storms, flooding and sea level rise are likely to hit hardest here. These in turn put water supplies, infrastructure, health and livelihoods at risk in the very cities already struggling to provide or safeguard such key needs. An effective response demands capable local and national government and support from strong international networks in building capacity to cope. Most of the Least Developed Countries lack both.

  12. Impact of Climate Change on Five Major Crop Fungal Diseases: Building Climatic Indicators of Infection Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launay, M.; Caubel, J.; Bourgeois, G.; Huard, F.; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.

    2013-12-01

    The climate change will modify the severity and occurrence of fungal crop diseases, as the bioclimatic niches of pathogens will shift according to temperature and rainfall patterns evolution. Therefore it becomes necessary to integrate fungal disease pressure assessment into evaluation tools of crop suitability at the regional level. The aim of this study was to build two climatic indicators, the Average Infection Efficiency (AIE) and the Number of Infection Days (NID), quantifying the potential effect of climate on infection intensity and occurrence. A simple and continuous function was developed to calculate them, which is easy to parameterize from experimental measurements, usable on large spatial scales and adaptable to various pathogens. The evolution of those climatic indicators was then studied for five major fungal crop diseases in Northern France, the phoma of oilseed rape, the potato late blight, the downy mildew of grape, the leaf rust of wheat and the net blotch of barley. These indicators were applied on a multisite analysis in Northern France. They were calculated during the crop cycle when the host plant is able to be infected, over the period between 1970 and 2100 for the balanced scenario of climate change A1B. In late spring and summer, higher temperatures combined with lower humidity reduced the risk of infection of potato late blight and downy mildew of grape. In autumn and spring the balance between warmer temperatures and lower humidity determined the risk of infection on oilseed rape and cereals: increased risk in late autumn and early spring, and decreased risk in early autumn and mid-spring when low humidity becomes limiting. This statement highlighted the need for using between year scale for a relevant analysis of climate change impact on infection risk. The indicators we developed are thus useful for land management at regional scale and medium term, in particular for stakeholders who need decision support tools through which they could

  13. Climate change, natural disasters, and the risk of violent conflict

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slettebak, Rune Thorkildsen

    2012-07-01

    This PhD project aims to assess the relation between natural disasters triggered by extreme weather events and the risk of violent conflict. The focus on these natural disasters stems from expectations that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, combined with frequent suggestions that climate change in general and natural disasters in particular can be expected to trigger more violent conflicts. A number of conflict types, ranging from riots to civil war, are tested. Case studies have found examples where environmental factors have contributed to triggering conflict. However, without systematic assessments, we do not know whether these cases are exceptions or parts of a common pattern. Learning more about this is a prime aim of this thesis. As the effects of climate change are still mainly in the future, I turn to the past for learning more about these connections. Although future relations may differ from those in the past, learning from history is considered the best way of increasing our basis of knowledge on what to expect from the future. The thesis tests two opposing theoretical traditions against each other. On one side is the environmental security literature, which holds that environmentally induced adversity is likely to increase the risk of violent conflict. The other, relatively unknown tradition, called disaster sociology, expects adversity to stimulate altruistic behavior and replace past ascribed identities with new 'communities of sufferers' in the disaster aftermath. In a violent conflict setting, this argument is read as that disasters should reduce conflict risk. Four analyses have been conducted. The first has a global coverage, two focus on India and the last one on Indonesia. The first analysis aims to uncover general trends, while the three others use cases where environmentally driven violence is considered particularly likely, and disaggregated analytical designs that should be well

  14. Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

    2015-11-01

    Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

  15. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Gardali; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

    2012-01-01

    Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified clim...

  16. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  17. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  18. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change.

  19. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. PMID:27054718

  20. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  1. Managing Climate Change Risk in China’s Agricultural Sector:The Potential for an Integrated Risk Management Framework

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kevin Z. Chen; Claire Hsu

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses a serious threat to the future food security of China, which is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. This paper discusses the implications of climate change for China’s agricultural sector. Its main objectives are to identify the agricultural risks associated with climate change, to introduce a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management and to enumerate key adaptation strategies, challenges, and recommendations.

  2. Physic Nut: A Proactive Climate Change Risk Management Strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Belewu, M. A.; Orire, I. O.

    2011-01-01

    Regardless of the regional variability in the causes and effects of Climate Change, it poses a major threat to both global human and ecological survival. Therefore, adapting and mitigating its consequences require an integrated approach which is not mutually exclusive of any specialization as enshrined in the Kyoto protocol. This paper reviews the concept, cause, impacts of climate change vis-a-vis the cultivation and viability of Jatropha curcas plant as a pro-active adaptation and mitigatio...

  3. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate...... and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents....... risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies - a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8...

  4. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  5. Playing the odds: Climate change risks transform utility plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tennis, M.W. [Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Cost and uncertainty analyses conducted jointly by the Union of Concerned Scientists and World Resource Institute regarding climate change policy and regulations are presented in this paper. A utility model was developed to help determine whether action was required in the near term by the electric industry and policy makers to reduce carbon emissions. The cost and carbon dioxide emissions resulting from four case studies are tabulated. Analysis of the results shows that explicit consideration of climate change uncertainty can provide an economic justification for investing in low carbon resources at above market costs. A number of specific recommendations are made in the paper. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  6. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

  7. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Rosamond L; Battisti, David S; Vimont, Daniel J; Falcon, Walter P; Burke, Marshall B

    2007-05-01

    El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems. PMID:17483453

  8. Climate Change and Risk Management Challenges in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Uffe

    Climate change or global warming results in melting ice in the Arctic, both inland and sea ice. This opens up opportunities of natural ressource extraction and possibilities of new shipping routes, that opens up opportunities for increased maritime activities. However, with these opportunies come...

  9. Prevent the risk of climate change by taxing fossil fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Of all the greenhouse gases, it is emissions of CO2 which most urgently require reduction. On the one hand, given the very long lifetime of this gas, its emissions are almost irreversible in character. On the other hand, the measures to be taken concern technological choices, and choices in matters of planning and land use, which are not easily reversible either. It would be very costly, later on, to go back on decisions we make in the coming years without taking into account the risk of climate change. We will only be able to stabilize the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere if we are able to reduce present emissions by 60 per cent. The challenge to humanity is considerable, since this reduction in emissions has to be achieved despite the forecast doubling of the world's population. We must organize ourselves both to stabilize the world's forests (reforestation in certain regions compensating for the inevitable deforestation elsewhere), and to reduce by 25 per cent the average consumption of fossil fuel per inhabitant. Such a radical reorientation of our habits in the consumption of fossil energy does not seem to me technically unreachable, and it will not cause widespread ruin if we manage to optimize its organization. Preventive work will only be effective if it is made on a planetary scale. It will only be undertaken if we are able to share the burden fairly between the various countries; and it will not be ruinous if we manage to decentralize necessary initiatives, so that the least costly methods are undertaken everywhere from the outset. (author)

  10. Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, Michael J.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Cristol, Daniel A.; Maryoung, Lindley A.; Noyes, Pamela D.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2013-01-01

    Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

  11. Climate change : we are at risk : interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Between November 2002 and May 2003 the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry travelled across Canada to hear the views of farmer organizations, rural associations, ecotourism groups and environmental organizations regarding concerns about climate change and the impact it may have on the agriculture and forestry sectors and rural communities. The Committee also examined potential adaptation strategies focusing on primary production, practices, technologies, ecosystems and other related areas. Farmers and forest operators are already facing changes in market conditions, domestic regulations, trade policies and technology. This interim report expressed the concerns of farmers and forest operators. It includes a review of the Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, the ice storm of 1998, and droughts since 1999. It also includes a discussion on climate change and its biophysical and economic effects on agriculture, forestry, water resources, rural communities, and Aboriginal communities. This interim report also briefly outlines the Kyoto Protocol, the emissions trading system, and the decarbonization of global energy systems. It emphasized the need for integrated research and government policies and programs that encourage adaptation to climate change. The final report will be released in October 2003 and will provide specific recommendations to ensure that Canada responds to the concerns of farmers and forest operators and to ensure continued prosperity in these sectors. refs., figs

  12. Climate change : we are at risk : interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliver, D.; Wiebe, J.

    2003-06-01

    Between November 2002 and May 2003 the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry travelled across Canada to hear the views of farmer organizations, rural associations, ecotourism groups and environmental organizations regarding concerns about climate change and the impact it may have on the agriculture and forestry sectors and rural communities. The Committee also examined potential adaptation strategies focusing on primary production, practices, technologies, ecosystems and other related areas. Farmers and forest operators are already facing changes in market conditions, domestic regulations, trade policies and technology. This interim report expressed the concerns of farmers and forest operators. It includes a review of the Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, the ice storm of 1998, and droughts since 1999. It also includes a discussion on climate change and its biophysical and economic effects on agriculture, forestry, water resources, rural communities, and Aboriginal communities. This interim report also briefly outlines the Kyoto Protocol, the emissions trading system, and the decarbonization of global energy systems. It emphasized the need for integrated research and government policies and programs that encourage adaptation to climate change. The final report will be released in October 2003 and will provide specific recommendations to ensure that Canada responds to the concerns of farmers and forest operators and to ensure continued prosperity in these sectors. refs., figs.

  13. Perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forest-based communities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, T.B.; Parkins, J.R.; McFarlane, B.L. [Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2005-10-01

    A study examining the perceptions of researchers and government experts about the risks posed by climate change to forest ecosystems and forest-based communities was presented. The aim of the study was to provide an indication of institutional behaviours, attitudes and perspectives concerning climate change. Data were collected by questionnaires from participants at a climate change and forestry workshop. Perceived risk to forest ecosystems was assessed by means of a subset of scales previously identified as relevant to climate change. Ten scales were selected to assess perceptions of certainty, controllability, predictability, adaptability, and knowledge of climatic change impacts. Each scale was assessed on the basis of a 7 point rating. Another set of 12 scales was used to assess perceived risk to forest-based communities. Eight statements were used to assess general beliefs about climate change. Social influences were assessed according to age, sex, level of education, place of residence and type of employer. Results indicated that forestry experts were concerned about the impacts of climate change and were not opposed to preparation and adaptation strategies. Respondents indicated that the effects of climate change on forests and forest-based communities are not well understood by the general pubic or forest managers. It was suggested that there was a relatively high level of uncertainty about the effects of climate change, particularly with respect to forest-based communities. The results suggested that a greater awareness of climate change risks is needed, as well as more research and monitoring efforts targeted at reducing levels of uncertainty about future impacts at local scales. If communities can begin to diversify their economies and rely on several key economic drivers, they will be better positioned to absorb future climate change impacts. It was concluded that the presence of human agency can have important implications for the future control of

  14. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  15. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten;

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  16. Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rainer Holst; Xiaohua Yu; Carola Grn

    2013-01-01

    Adopting Just and Pope (1978, 1979) style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1°C increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45%(1.74%reduction in North China and 1.19%reduction in South China), while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31%(3.0%increase in North China and 0.59%reduction in South China).

  17. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...

  18. CLIMATE CHANGE AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN SAHEL: CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT CONTRIBUTION TO POVERTY REDUCTION

    OpenAIRE

    Constant, Labintan Adeniyi

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays climate change event and poor population vulnerability become more severe and natural resources scarcity intensity increased. In order to mitigate climate change negative effects adaptive policies such as poverty reduction Strategy and National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) as effective’s responsive strategies. There are also farmers traditional adaptation methods which are consider as local mainstreaming climate change adaptation framework. This paper has explore subjective quali...

  19. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.

  20. The robustness of flood insurance regimes given changing risk resulting from climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Lamond

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The changing risk of flooding associated with climate change presents different challenges for the different flood insurance market models in use around the world, which vary in respect of consumer structure and their risk transfer mechanism. A review of international models has been undertaken against three broad criteria for the functioning and sustainability of a flood insurance scheme: knowing the nature of the insurable risk; the availability of an insurable population; and the presence of a solvent insurer. The solvency of insurance markets appears strong, partly because insurers and reinsurers can choose to exclude markets which would give rise to insolvency or can diversify their portfolios to include offsetting perils. Changing risk may threaten solvency if increasing risk is not recognised and adjusted for but insurability of flood risk may be facilitated by the use of market based and hybrid schemes offering greater diversification and more flexibility. While encouragement of mitigation is in theory boosted by risk based pricing, availability and affordability of insurance may be negatively impacted. This threatens the sustainability of an insurable population, therefore the inclusion of the state in partnership is beneficial in ensuring continuity of cover, addressing equity issues and incentivising mitigation.

  1. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  2. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaption policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.; de Jong, A.; van Bree, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type

  3. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naia Morueta-Holme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus, which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be

  4. Assessing perceived health risks of climate change : Canadian public opinion 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-03-15

    This paper discussed a survey conducted to evaluate the awareness, knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours of Canadians in relation to climatic change. A total of 1600 telephone surveys were conducted with a broad range of age groups. The study showed that climate change is considered by many Canadians to pose a significant threat at both local and global levels. Evidence of climate change has been noted in many communities. However, relatively few Canadians understand how climate change may impact human health. While many Canadians associated climatic change with air pollution hazards and ozone depletion, most Canadians were not aware of the potential negative health impacts related to changes in disease vectors, extreme weather events, and coastal flooding. The strongest awareness and concern about health impacts were expressed by Canadians concerned about global warming. Individuals with chronic health conditions were more likely to be attuned to the potential health impacts of climatic change. Seniors viewed climate change as a longer term problem. Only 10 per cent of Canadians viewed global warming as a major health risk. Sixty-nine per cent of Canadians believed that global warming was happening, while 63 per cent attributed climate change to human activity. Nearly half of all respondents believed that an extreme weather disaster would affect their community during the course of their lifetime. The report suggested that marketing or communications campaigns should build public awareness of the health risks associated with direct or proximal environmental risks. Information about health risks should be specific, and communications should be tailored to age cohorts. Television and print media should be used to build awareness of the health risks of climate change. Provincial concerns related to climatic change were also outlined. tabs., figs.

  5. Summary of work in climate change, pest risk analysis, and biodiversity for Valdivia SANREM project

    OpenAIRE

    Garrett, Karen A.

    2008-01-01

    Metadata only record This presentation summarizes work in climate change, pest risk analysis, and biodiversity for Valdivia SANREM project LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

  6. Climate Change Risk Management Consulting: The opportunity for an independent business practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciccozzi, R.

    2009-04-01

    The Paper outlines the main questions to be addressed with reference to the actual demand of climate change risk management consulting, in the financial services. Moreover, the Project shall also try to investigate if the Catastrophe Modelling Industry can start and manage a business practice specialised on climate change risk exposures. In this context, the Paper aims at testing the possibility to build a sound business case, based upon typical MBA course analysis tools, such as PEST(LE), SWOT, etc. Specific references to the tools to be used and to other contribution from academic literature and general documentation are also discussed in the body of the Paper and listed at the end. The analysis shall also focus on the core competencies required for an independent climate change risk management consulting business practice, with the purpose to outline a valid definition of how to achieve competitive advantage in climate change risk management consulting.

  7. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. PMID:25929802

  8. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures.

  9. Climate Change's Role in Disaster Risk Reduction's Future: Beyond Vulnerability and Resilience

    OpenAIRE

    Kelman, I.; Gaillard, J. C.; Mercer, J.

    2015-01-01

    A seminal policy year for development and sustainability occurs in 2015 due to three parallel processes that seek long-term agreements for climate change, the Sustainable Development Goals, and disaster risk reduction. Little reason exists to separate them, since all three examine and aim to deal with many similar processes, including vulnerability and resilience. This article uses vulnerability and resilience to explore the intersections and overlaps amongst climate change, disaster risk red...

  10. Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Mercer, Jessica; Kelman, Ilan; do Rosario, F.; de Deus de Jesus Lima, A.; A. da Silva; Beloff, A. M.; McClean, A.

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its natio...

  11. SMEs’ construction of climate change risks: the role of networks and values

    OpenAIRE

    Schaefer, Anja; Williams, Sarah; Blundel, Richard

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we explore how SME managers’ network relations and values may be related to their construction of climate change (CC) as a business risk and responsibility. The paper takes a social-constructionist approach the topic of small business managers’ understanding and response to climate change risks. From this perspective, the paper investigates how the personal values held by managers, as well as the social structure, and particularly the networks in which they are embedded and par...

  12. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages. PMID:26690184

  13. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.

    2016-01-01

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments. PMID:27762398

  14. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  15. A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Gardali

    Full Text Available Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

  16. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  17. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  18. Risk perceptions, general environmental beliefs, and willingness to address climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1,225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavior intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither nonbelievers who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they believers who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions

  19. Climate Change Adaptation in Dutch Municipalities: Risk Perception and Institutional Capacity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den Maya M.; Otto-Zimmermann, Konrad

    2011-01-01

    This contribution presents case studies of nine Dutch municipalities. Interview-based data show that the drivers of local climate adaptation in these cases are determined more by local contextual factors than by past experience with flooding or an expected increase of climate change risk. The presen

  20. Forest fire risk assessment in Sweden using climate model data: bias correction and future changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As the risk for a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40 and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5 for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3. The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Dengue Risk in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Pereda, Paula Carvalho; Menezes, Tatiane; Denisard C. O. Alves

    2014-01-01

    Climate has relevant impacts on human health. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), climate-sensitive health problems kill millions of people every year and undermine the physical and psychological health of millions (WHO, 2012). In the particular case of vector-borne diseases, climate conditions assure the vectors' survival and reproduction and, consequently, the transmission of the diseases (Kelly-Hope and Thomson, 2008). Increases in heat, precipitation, and humidity can allow ...

  2. Climate Change Adaptation and Climate Related Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies in Zimbabwe and Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubaya, C. P.; Ngepah, N.; Seyama, W.

    2015-12-01

    Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) have similar aims and mutual benefits, and there is a very strong rationale for adopting a more integrated approach to these issues rather than analysing each of them as distinct from the other. One of the gaps that have been noted in this context is the lack of evidence in systematic integration of CCA and DRR in Southern Africa. In this regard, this study builds on understanding CCA and DRR policies from the perspectives of vulnerable groups- women and smallholder farmers, and conducts institutional and policy analysis of CCA and DRR in southern Africa, with specific focus on Malawi and Zimbabwe. Both quantitative and qualitative methodologies were employed to collect data for this study in the two countries. The analysis is centred on the conceptualization of DRR in the context of recovery time and CCA on livelihood changes. Findings of the study show that drought is no longer viewed as a hazard as it is a perennial and chronic occurrence in selected climate hotspots, with heightened intensity in certain identified years. Households are able to quickly recover from slow onset hazards such as droughts and dry spells more than they are able to recover from sudden onset floods, implying more capacity towards CCA than DRR. Government programmes and policies are also focused more on CCA than on DRR efforts that appear not to be a priority. Findings point towards female vulnerability from perceptions and practice where males tend to dominate where they are set to benefit from external assistance. We need to strengthen government capacity in implementation of DRR programmes, which is currently limited and development initiatives must deliberately target building the resilience of women.

  3. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen L. Akerlof

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126. We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

  4. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...

  5. The risk city cities countering climate change : emerging planning theories and practices around the world

    CERN Document Server

    Jabareen, Yosef

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary cities face phenomenal risks, and they face particularly high levels of mounting social and environmental risks, including social polarization, urban conflicts, riots, terror, and climate change threats. This book suggests that climate change and its resulting uncertainties challenge the concepts, procedures, and scope of conventional approaches to planning, creating a need to rethink and revise current planning methods. Therefore, this book suggests a paradigm shift in our thinking, interrogation, and planning of our cities. Based on the contemporary conditions of risk at cities

  6. Students' Reactions to Climate Change Adaptation Risks and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiel, M.; Grant, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Objectives/Scope How undergraduate (UG) business students at a major public university in the Rocky Mountain region develop appreciation, and some understanding of physical and natural sciences causing climate change (CC) and their implications for society through examples drawn from the students' immediate and meaningful physical environments. Methods, Procedures, Process Three regional examples of ways in which CC impacts the lives of students on the local campus will provide practical approaches for students' environmentally responsible actions beyond the classroom. The cases from different industries will help UG students learn how they play critical roles in preventing and managing natural hazards, disaster management, ecology, development, famine, and secure livelihoods. Observations, Results, Conclusions Classroom discussions of "businesses' ecological responsibilities" in some remote location often fail to "connect" with students who have spent most of their lives within 300 miles of campus. However, when businesses in Asia are adding particulate to the atmosphere in the jet stream over the Pacific, and subsequently graying the local ski slopes, causing early melting and delaying the start of ski seasons, that is a different matter! However, more summer activities offer economic opportunities! A second example is found among the local entrepreneurial woodworkers who take "beetle kill" pine trees that are wildfire hazards and convert them into beautiful, creatively described "blue pine" furniture, interior beams, wall panels and table-top decorations. The "industrial scale" anaerobic digesters used in the "circular economy" of giant cheese factories, dairy farms and packing plants offer a third example for linking business to chemistry, engineering, and aesthetics (odor reduction).

  7. Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

    flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher......A doubling of groundwater abstraction rates has been proposed in selected areas of Denmark to meet water resource demands. Combined with projected climate change, which is characterised by increased annual temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration rates for the country, the impacts to low...

  8. Assessing climate change causes, risks and opportunities in forestry

    OpenAIRE

    Paul J. Burgess; Moffat, Andy J.; Matthews, Robin B.

    2011-01-01

    Forests play an important role in regulating the global climate through storing carbon that would otherwise be released as CO 2 to the atmosphere, and affecting the global energy balance through absorption of solar radiation. Forests are also affected directly by the impact of increased CO 2 levels and temperatures on ecosystem processes, and indirectly by human responses seeking to mitigate the net emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or adapt to new climates. This paper at...

  9. Risk perception: The social construction of spatial knowledge around climate change-related scenarios in Lima

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Miranda Sara; S. Jameson; K. Pfeffer; I. Baud

    2016-01-01

    Lima's environmental sustainability is threatened by increasing water scarcity, heavy rain events and limited attention for water vulnerability and climate change scenarios. In this paper we examine how knowledge construction and risk perception on water-related disaster risks and vulnerabilities af

  10. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  11. Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change for Application to Security Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    The science of climate change has convincingly demonstrated that human activities, including the release of greenhouse gases, land-surface changes, particle emissions, and redistribution of water, are changing global and regional climates. Consequently, key institutions are now concerned about the potential social impacts of climate change. For example, the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report from the U.S. Department of Defense states that "climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked." Meanwhile, insured losses from climate and weather-related natural disasters have risen dramatically over the past thirty years. Although these losses stem largely from socioeconomic trends, insurers are concerned that climate change could exacerbate this trend and render certain types of climate risk non-diversifiable. Meanwhile, the climate science community-broadly defined as physical, biological, and social scientists focused on some aspect of climate change-remains largely focused scholarly activities that are valued in the academy but not especially useful to decision makers. On the other hand, climate scientists who engage in policy discussions have generally permitted vested interests who support or oppose climate policies to frame the discussion of climate science within the policy arena. Such discussions focus on whether scientific uncertainties are sufficiently resolved to justify policy and the vested interests overstate or understate key uncertainties to support their own agendas. Consequently, the scientific community has become absorbed defending scientific findings to the near exclusion of developing novel tools to aid in risk-based decision-making. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established expressly for the purpose of informing governments, has largely been engaged in attempts to reduce unavoidable uncertainties rather than helping the world's governments define a science-based risk

  12. Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Muhammad; Schilling, Janpeter; Scheffran, Jürgen; Zulfiqar, Farhad

    2016-03-15

    Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory

  13. Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Muhammad; Schilling, Janpeter; Scheffran, Jürgen; Zulfiqar, Farhad

    2016-03-15

    Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory

  14. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  15. Characterizing changes in drought risk for the United States from climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The effect of climate change on the frequency and intensity of droughts across the contiguous United States over the next century is assessed by applying Standardized Precipitation Indices and the Palmer Drought Severity Index to the full suite of 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change General Circulation Models for three IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) listed in order of their emissions through 2100 from high to low). The frequency of meteorological drought based on precipitation alone is projected to increase in some parts of the US, for example the southwestern states, and decrease in others. Hydrological drought frequencies based on precipitation and temperature are projected to increase across most of the country, however, with very substantial and almost universally experienced increases in drought risk by 2050. For both measures, the southwestern US and the Rocky Mountain states are projected to experience the largest increases in drought frequency, but these areas may be able to exploit existing excess storage capacity. Drought frequencies and uncertainties in their projection tend to increase considerably over time and show a strong worsening trend along higher greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, suggesting substantial benefits for greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

  16. Characterizing changes in drought risk for the United States from climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strzepek, Kenneth [Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E19-411f Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 (United States); Yohe, Gary [Wesleyan University, 238 Church Street, Middletown, CT 06459 (United States); Neumann, James; Boehlert, Brent, E-mail: strzepek@mit.edu, E-mail: gyohe@wesleyan.edu, E-mail: jneumann@indecon.com, E-mail: bboehlert@indecon.com [Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    The effect of climate change on the frequency and intensity of droughts across the contiguous United States over the next century is assessed by applying Standardized Precipitation Indices and the Palmer Drought Severity Index to the full suite of 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change General Circulation Models for three IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) listed in order of their emissions through 2100 from high to low). The frequency of meteorological drought based on precipitation alone is projected to increase in some parts of the US, for example the southwestern states, and decrease in others. Hydrological drought frequencies based on precipitation and temperature are projected to increase across most of the country, however, with very substantial and almost universally experienced increases in drought risk by 2050. For both measures, the southwestern US and the Rocky Mountain states are projected to experience the largest increases in drought frequency, but these areas may be able to exploit existing excess storage capacity. Drought frequencies and uncertainties in their projection tend to increase considerably over time and show a strong worsening trend along higher greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, suggesting substantial benefits for greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

  17. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  18. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment...

  19. Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data

  20. Climate change and infectious disease risk management: a localised health security perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Collins, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Pathogenic risks in relation to climate change are not fully understood and to a large extent have to be regarded as unpredictable. It is therefore important to focus attention on human vulnerability and coping for which more certain influences on disease risk can be assessed. Despite commonplace environmental conditions for infectious diseases around the world, only some people are affected. This is because the larger proportions of disease risks are regularly a function of human socio-econo...

  1. The Women's Role in the Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change: Its Contribution to the Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero Angel, M.; Carvajal Escobar, Y.; Garcia Vargas, M.

    2007-05-01

    Recently, there is evidence of an increase in the amount of severity in extreme events associated with the climate variability or climate change; which demonstrates that climate in this planet is changing. There is an observation of increasing damages, and of social economical cost associated with these phenomena's, mostly do to more people are living in hazard vulnerable conditions. The victims of natural disasters have increase from 147 to 211 million between 1991 and 2000. In same way more than 665.000 people have died in 2557 natural disasters, which 90% are associated with water and climate. (UNESCO & WWAP, 2003). The actual tendency and the introduction of new factors of risk, suggest lost increase in the future, obligating actions to manage and reduce risk of disaster. Bind work, health, poverty, education, water, climate, and disasters is not an error, is an obligation. Vulnerability of society to natural hazards and to poverty are bond, to reduce the risk of disasters is frequently united with the reduction of poverty and in the other way too (Sen, 2000). In this context, extreme events impact societies in all the world, affecting differently men and women, do to the different roles they play in the society, the different access in the control of resources, the few participation that women have in taking decisions with preparedness, mitigation, rehabilitation of disasters, impacting more women in developing countries. Although, women understand better the causes and local consequences in changes of climate conditions. They have a pile of knowledge and abilities for guiding adaptation, playing a very important role in vulnerable communities. This work shows how these topics connect with the millennium development goals; particularly how it affects its accomplishment. It also describes the impact of climate variability and climate change in developing countries. Analyzing adaptation responses that are emerging; especially from women initiation.

  2. Insurance against Climate Change : Financial Disaster Risk Management and Insurance Options for Climate Change Adaptation in Bulgaria

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2014-01-01

    Bulgaria is exposed to nearly all types of climate extremes, including floods, droughts, and others, as well as earthquakes. The combination of insurance products, early warning systems, information campaigns, infrastructure adaptation measures, and strict regulations can be very useful in tackling the negative climate change impacts. This note provides an overview of the insurance sector ...

  3. FACOTRS TO DETERMINE RISK PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ATTITUDE TOWARD ADAPTATION POLICY OF THE PUBLIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Kenshi; Sugimoto, Takuya; Kubota, Hiromi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Tanaka, Mitsuru

    This study clarifies the factors to determine risk perception of climate change and attitudes toward adaptation policy by analyzing the data collecting from Internet survey to the general public. The results indicate the followings: 1) more than 70% people perceive some sort of risk of climate change, and most people are awaken to wind and flood damage. 2) most people recognize that mitigation policy is much more important than adaptation policy, whereas most people assume to accept adaptation policy as self-reponsibility, 3) the significant factors to determinane risk perception of climate chage and attitude towerd adaptation policy are cognition of benefits on the policy and procedural justice in the policy process in addion to demographics such as gender, experience of disaster, intension of inhabitant.

  4. Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: cases from central Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eakin, H. [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

    2005-11-15

    A multiscalar, multistressor assessment of rural vulnerability is presented, illustrating how globalization, market liberalization, and climatic risk simultaneously structure the livelihood strategies of Mexican smallholders. Ethnographic data collected in three communities are used to argue that farmers' capacities to manage climatic risk are circumscribed by the ways in which they are able to negotiate changes in agricultural policy. Four livelihood strategies are explored in detail to show that market integration does not necessarily improve risk management capacity, and that subsistence maize production - while highly sensitive to hazards - may actually serve to enhance livelihood stability. The dominance of economic uncertainty over environmental risk in households' decision making implies a continued role for government intervention to help households adapt to climatic stress. (author)

  5. Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, M

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

  6. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2015-01-01

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large nu...

  7. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  8. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  9. Climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament. From security threats to sustainable peace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the future, nuclear and climate risks may interfere with each other in a mutually enforcing way. Con-flicts induced by climate change could contribute to global insecurity and create more incentives for states to rely on military force, including nuclear weapons. Rather than being a direct cause of war, cli-mate change significantly affects the delicate balance between social and environmental systems in a way that could undermine human security and societal stability with potentially grave consequences for international security. Increased reliance on nuclear energy to reduce carbon emissions will contribute to the risks of nuclear proliferation. A renewed nuclear arms race would consume considerable resources and undermine the conditions for tackling the problem of climate change in a cooperative manner. Nuclear war itself would severely destabilize human societies and the environment, not to speak of the possibility of a nuclear winter that would disrupt the atmosphere. On the other hand, finding solutions to one problem area could help to find solutions in the other. Pre-venting the dangers of climate change and nuclear war requires an integrated set of strategies that ad-dress the causes as well as the impacts on the natural and social environment. Institutions are needed to strengthen common, ecological and human security, build and reinforce conflict-resolution mechanisms and low-carbon energy alternatives, and create sustainable lifecycles that respect the capabilities of the living world. This article examines the linkages between nuclear and climate risks, identifies areas where both threats converge, and offers an approach to move from living under these security threats to building sustain-able peace. By bringing to light the multidimensional interplay between climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament, this study aims to help the reader grasp their interconnectedness and recognize its critical implications for the strategic security

  10. Risk Management of Water Resources in a Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Gonen, Amnon; Zeitouni, Naomi

    2010-01-01

    Efficient and flexible management of fresh water resources are critical for the wellbeing of human society. Without it, human society would be unable to prosper or even exist. Conflicting demands coupled with decreasing usable water may lead to inefficient and unsustainable use of resources, which may result in significant economic, social, and environmental ramifications. In the current work, risk management methodology is utilized to increase flexibility and security over the management of ...

  11. Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    The IJOEM

    2010-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathways could stabilise the global average atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) at 450 ppm, the level which has a 50% chance of keeping the temperature rise to 2 oC? What policies are nee...

  12. Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2014-04-01

    Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction.

  13. Sustainable development through a gendered lens: climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Nancy D

    2016-03-01

    The UN General Assembly has just adopted the post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda articulated in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving the SDGs will be furthered by the closer integration of the climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) agendas. Gender provides us a valuable portal for considering this integration. Acknowledging that gender relaters to both women and men and that men and women experience climate variability and disasters differently, in this paper the role of women in both CCA and DRR is explored, shifting the focus from women as vulnerable victims to women as critical agents for change with respect to climate change mitigation and adaptation and reduction of disaster risks. Appropriately targeted interventions can also empower women and contribute to more just and inclusive sustainable development. PMID:26943600

  14. Sustainable development through a gendered lens: climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Nancy D

    2016-03-01

    The UN General Assembly has just adopted the post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda articulated in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving the SDGs will be furthered by the closer integration of the climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) agendas. Gender provides us a valuable portal for considering this integration. Acknowledging that gender relaters to both women and men and that men and women experience climate variability and disasters differently, in this paper the role of women in both CCA and DRR is explored, shifting the focus from women as vulnerable victims to women as critical agents for change with respect to climate change mitigation and adaptation and reduction of disaster risks. Appropriately targeted interventions can also empower women and contribute to more just and inclusive sustainable development.

  15. Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schou, Erik; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2015-01-01

    Future climate development and its effects on forest ecosystems are not easily predicted or described in terms of standard probability concepts. Nevertheless, forest managers continuously make long-term decisions that will be subject to climate change impacts. The manager's assessment of possible...... developments and impacts and the related uncertainty will affect the combined decision on timing of final harvest and the choice of species for regeneration. We analyse harvest of a Norway spruce stand with the option to regenerate with Norway spruce or oak. We use simulated variations in biophysical risks......) assigned to each outcome. Results show that the later a forest manager expects to obtain certainty about climate change or the more skewed their belief distribution, the more will decisions be based on ex ante assessments — suggesting that if forest managers believe that climate change uncertainty...

  16. Seawater intrusion risk analysis under climate change conditions for the Gaza Strip aquifer (Palestine)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dentoni, Marta; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Marrocu, Marino; Lecca, Giuditta

    2014-05-01

    Seawater intrusion (SWI) has become a major threat to coastal freshwater resources, particularly in the Mediterranean basin, where this problem is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate groundwater resources management and with serious potential impacts from projected climate changes. A proper analysis and risk assessment that includes climate scenarios is essential for the design of water management measures to mitigate the environmental and socio-economic impacts of SWI. In this study a methodology for SWI risk analysis in coastal aquifers is developed and applied to the Gaza Strip coastal aquifer in Palestine. The method is based on the origin-pathway-target model, evaluating the final value of SWI risk by applying the overlay principle to the hazard map (representing the origin of SWI), the vulnerability map (representing the pathway of groundwater flow) and the elements map (representing the target of SWI). Results indicate the important role of groundwater simulation in SWI risk assessment and illustrate how mitigation measures can be developed according to predefined criteria to arrive at quantifiable expected benefits. Keywords: Climate change, coastal aquifer, seawater intrusion, risk analysis, simulation/optimization model. Acknowledgements. The study is partially funded by the project "Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB)", FP7-ENV-2009-1, GA 244151.

  17. Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Dimitroulopoulou, Chrysanthi; Thornes, John; Lai, Ka-Man; Taylor, Jonathon; Myers, Isabella; Heaviside, Clare; Mavrogianni, Anna; Shrubsole, Clive; Chalabi, Zaid; Davies, Michael; Wilkinson, Paul

    2015-12-01

    There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical

  18. Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Dimitroulopoulou, Chrysanthi; Thornes, John; Lai, Ka-Man; Taylor, Jonathon; Myers, Isabella; Heaviside, Clare; Mavrogianni, Anna; Shrubsole, Clive; Chalabi, Zaid; Davies, Michael; Wilkinson, Paul

    2015-12-01

    There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical

  19. Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

    2012-04-01

    The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

  20. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F; Rötter, R P; Bindi, M;

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess cli...

  1. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. PMID:26630544

  2. Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: disaster risk reduction, including climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Jessica; Kelman, Ilan; do Rosario, Francisco; de Deus de Jesus Lima, Abilio; da Silva, Augusto; Beloff, Anna-Maija; McClean, Alex

    2014-10-01

    Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its nation-building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation-building in Timor-Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor-Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.

  3. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Matthias; Albert; Jan; Hansen; Jürgen; Nagel; Matthias; Schmidt; Hermann; Spellmann

    2015-01-01

    Background: Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we(1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios,(2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and(3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress.Methods: In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs(minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.Results: The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive.Conclusions: Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario,but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate counter-measures such as

  4. Assessing continental-scale risks for generalist and specialist pollinating bee species under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Roberts

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Increased risks of extinction to populations of animals and plants under changing climate have now been demonstrated for many taxa. This study assesses the extinction risks to species within an important genus of pollinating bees (Colletes: Apidae by estimating the expected changes in the area and isolation of suitable habitat under predicted climatic condition for 2050. Suitable habitat was defined on the basis of the presence of known forage plants as well as climatic suitability. To investigate whether ecological specialisation was linked to extinction risk we compared three species which were generalist pollen foragers on several plant families with three species which specialised on pollen from a single plant species. Both specialist and generalist species showed an increased risk of extinction with shifting climate, and this was particularly high for the most specialised species (Colletes anchusae and C. wolfi. The forage generalist C. impunctatus, which is associated with Boreo-Alpine environments, is potentially threatened through significant reduction in available climatic niche space. Including the distribution of the principal or sole pollen forage plant, when modelling the distribution of monolectic or narrowly oligolectic species, did not improve the predictive accuracy of our models as the plant species were considerably more widespread than the specialised bees associated with them.

  5. Climate change - An uncertainty factor in risk analysis of contaminated land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustsson, Anna; Filipsson, Monika; Oberg, Tomas; Bergbäck, Bo

    2011-10-15

    Metals frequently occur at contaminated sites, where their potential toxicity and persistence require risk assessments that consider possible long-term changes. Changes in climate are likely to affect the speciation, mobility, and risks associated with metals. This paper provides an example of how the climate effect can be inserted in a commonly used exposure model, and how the exposure then changes compared to present conditions. The comparison was made for cadmium (Cd) exposure to 4-year-old children at a highly contaminated iron and steel works site in southeastern Sweden. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches (through probability bounds analysis, PBA) were used in the exposure assessment. Potential climate-sensitive variables were determined by a literature review. Although only six of the total 39 model variables were assumed to be sensitive to a change in climate (groundwater infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, soil:water distribution, and two bioconcentration factors), the total exposure was clearly affected. For example, by altering the climate-sensitive variables in the order of 15% to 20%, the deterministic estimate of exposure increased by 27%. Similarly, the PBA estimate of the reasonable maximum exposure (RME, defined as the upper bound of the 95th percentile) increased by almost 20%. This means that sites where the exposure in present conditions is determined to be slightly below guideline values may in the future exceed these guidelines, and risk management decisions could thus be affected. The PBA, however, showed that there is also a possibility of lower exposure levels, which means that the changes assumed for the climate-sensitive variables increase the total uncertainty in the probabilistic calculations. This highlights the importance of considering climate as a factor in the characterization of input data to exposure assessments at contaminated sites. The variable with the strongest influence on the result was the

  6. Climate change - An uncertainty factor in risk analysis of contaminated land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustsson, Anna; Filipsson, Monika; Oberg, Tomas; Bergbäck, Bo

    2011-10-15

    Metals frequently occur at contaminated sites, where their potential toxicity and persistence require risk assessments that consider possible long-term changes. Changes in climate are likely to affect the speciation, mobility, and risks associated with metals. This paper provides an example of how the climate effect can be inserted in a commonly used exposure model, and how the exposure then changes compared to present conditions. The comparison was made for cadmium (Cd) exposure to 4-year-old children at a highly contaminated iron and steel works site in southeastern Sweden. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches (through probability bounds analysis, PBA) were used in the exposure assessment. Potential climate-sensitive variables were determined by a literature review. Although only six of the total 39 model variables were assumed to be sensitive to a change in climate (groundwater infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, soil:water distribution, and two bioconcentration factors), the total exposure was clearly affected. For example, by altering the climate-sensitive variables in the order of 15% to 20%, the deterministic estimate of exposure increased by 27%. Similarly, the PBA estimate of the reasonable maximum exposure (RME, defined as the upper bound of the 95th percentile) increased by almost 20%. This means that sites where the exposure in present conditions is determined to be slightly below guideline values may in the future exceed these guidelines, and risk management decisions could thus be affected. The PBA, however, showed that there is also a possibility of lower exposure levels, which means that the changes assumed for the climate-sensitive variables increase the total uncertainty in the probabilistic calculations. This highlights the importance of considering climate as a factor in the characterization of input data to exposure assessments at contaminated sites. The variable with the strongest influence on the result was the

  7. Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlock, Jolyon M; Leach, Steve A

    2015-06-01

    During the early part of the 21st century, an unprecedented change in the status of vector-borne disease in Europe has occurred. Invasive mosquitoes have become widely established across Europe, with subsequent transmission and outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya virus. Malaria has re-emerged in Greece, and West Nile virus has emerged throughout parts of eastern Europe. Tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, continue to increase, or, in the case of tick-borne encephalitis and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses, have changed their geographical distribution. From a veterinary perspective, the emergence of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses show that northern Europe is equally susceptible to transmission of vector-borne disease. These changes are in part due to increased globalisation, with intercontinental air travel and global shipping transport creating new opportunities for invasive vectors and pathogens. However, changes in vector distributions are being driven by climatic changes and changes in land use, infrastructure, and the environment. In this Review, we summarise the risks posed by vector-borne diseases in the present and the future from a UK perspective, and assess the likely effects of climate change and, where appropriate, climate-change adaptation strategies on vector-borne disease risk in the UK. Lessons from the outbreaks of West Nile virus in North America and chikungunya in the Caribbean emphasise the need to assess future vector-borne disease risks and prepare contingencies for future outbreaks. Ensuring that adaptation strategies for climate change do not inadvertently exacerbate risks should be a primary focus for decision makers. PMID:25808458

  8. Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fleming

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

  9. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  10. Attributing the Risk of Late Onset of the Rainy Season in Southern Africa to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolski, P.; Stone, D. A.; Tadross, M. A.; Hewitson, B.; Wehner, M. F.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfed subsistence agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for approximately 96% of all cropland. This, combined with strong intra-seasonal and interannual variability of rains makes food production sensitive to climate variations, and increases the potential and frequent occurrence of climate-triggered famines. Farmers often identify the timing of the onset of the growing season (in many areas dependent predominantly on rainfall) as a key climate characteristic which influences crop yields, influences planting activities, and can be used to adapt to changing seasonal conditions without requiring additional resources. It is thus important to understand factors affecting the timing of the onset of rains, particularly how anthropogenic climate change may increase the risk of later onsets. Here, we present a study designed to assess the level of influence of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the risk of late onset in southern Africa. Considering numerous definitions of rainy season onset, we use one that describes onset related to the growing of maize, as it is the most wide-ranging and consumed staple in the region. Attribution is done using a risk-based event attribution methodology in which we use dedicated simulations by AGCMs (HadAM3p-N96 and CAM5.1-1degree) performed in the framework of the Climate of the 20th Century Plus (C20C+) Detection and Attribution Project. These simulations enable comparison of event (in our case the timing of the onset of a particular rainy season) probabilities under real world climates with those under a climate that might have been had human activities not emitted greenhouse gases. The fraction of risk of later onsets, attributable to an increase in greenhouse gases, is done in a spatially-explicit way for onset events derived from observed and reanalysis data for the 2007-2014 period.

  11. Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Lyndon D; Paroz, Lydie-Line; Bradley, Bethany A; Green, Jonathan M H; Hole, David G; Holness, Stephen; Ziv, Guy; Oppenheimer, Michael G; Wilcove, David S

    2014-04-01

    Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. PMID:24372589

  12. Flood risk analysis in the Tokyo metropolitan area for climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2011-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area is highly vulnerable to flood, because densely populated area is located along mouth of major rivers. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. We aim to evaluate potential flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use change, land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. For this purpose, it is necessary to build up a consistent flood database system, which contains long-term consistent flood data for the past. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data documented in "Statistics of flood", we construct a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software. In this database, each flood record is linked to municipal polygons. By using this flood database, we can refer to a specific flood record for each year at small municipal level. We can also calculate total amount of damage for each flood cause such as innuduation inside the levee, over flow,innunduation by river water. First, we analyze long-term variations of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area based on this flood database. Then, we aim to evaluate influence of socio-economic and climatic change on flood risk variations by comparing flood variations in the past with rainfall data and socio-economic indicators. Finally, we construct a flood risk curve representing exceedance probability for total damage of flood by using past flood data. Based on the flood risk curve, we discuss potential vulnerability to flooding and risk of economic losses in Tokyo metropolitan area for climate change adaptation.

  13. Environmental Risk of Climate Change and Groundwater Abstraction on Ecological Conditions in a Danish Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaby, L. P.; Boegh, E.; Jensen, N. H.

    2014-12-01

    The Danish drinking water supply is sourced almost entirely from groundwater. Balancing water abstraction demands and the ecological conditions in streams is one of the major challenges for water resource managers. With projected climate change, characterised by increased annual temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration rates for Denmark, the impact to low flows and groundwater levels are especially of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. On the island Sjælland, which includes urban and agricultural regions, a doubling of groundwater abstraction rates has been proposed in selected areas to meet water resource demands. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future climate (i.e. precipitation, temperature, reference evapotranspiration) come from the ENSEMBLES climate modelling project. Climate variables from 11 climate models are first bias corrected with a distribution based scaling (DBS) method (Seaby et al., 2013) and then used to force hydrological simulations of stream discharge, groundwater recharge, and nitrate leaching from the root zone under present (1991-2010) and future (2071-2100) climate conditions. Hydrological modelling utilises a sequential coupling methodology with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model which the National Water Resources Model (DK-model) is set up in (Henriksen et al., 2003). We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher reductions to low flows seen around 40%. The combined effects of climate change and increased groundwater

  14. Resilience to the Health Risks of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Kristie L. Ebi

    2011-01-01

    Current public health strategies, policies, and measures are being modified to enhance current health protection to climate-sensitive health outcomes. These modifications are critical to decrease vulnerability to climate variability, but do not necessarily increase resilience to future (and different) weather patterns. Communities resilient to the health risks of climate change anticipate risks; reduce vulnerability to those risks; prepare for and respond quickly and effectively to threats; a...

  15. THE RISK OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON ROMANIAN FORESTS UNDER THE IMPACT OF RAINFALLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OCTAVIA BOGDAN

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The risk of climate changes on romanian forests under the impact of rainfalls. The risk of climate change on forests in Romania under the impact of precipitation. This paper is a continuation of studies published in the previous magazine Risks and Disasters, editor V. Sorocovschi, which treated the risk of climate change on forests induced by air temperature in Romania. This time, using the same methodology (Bogdan, Coconea, 2013 demonstrated that rainfall-induced climate changes, due to global warming, exert a risk to vegetation in general and forests in particular, but of a regional nature (tablel 1 . This is due to a complex of geographical factors (position, orographic barrier role, topoclimatic discontinuity alternating positive and negative forms of relief etc. and meteorological factors (enhancing or reducing atmospheric air circulation. The decennial analysis by floors of vegetation during 1961-2010 (table 3a-3h indicates that under conditions of increasing air temperature are likely to take place, both a decrease in precipitations (as in decades 3-4, as well as an increase, like in the last decade, 2001-2010, which was at the hottest. The cause lies in the intensification of heat stroke, the evaporation, thermal convection (especially in the hottest months of the year, which increases cloudiness and precipitation implicitly. The feedback reaction of forest ecosystems to climate change leads to the following conclusions: under the conditions of decreasing rainfall, the water storage in the soil lowers, the soil dryness increase eakens trees and increases resistance to wind-blown trees phenomenon, so that the forest loses its climate equilibrium role under increased rainfall, frequency of rain showers accompanied by hail and storms, there are foliaceous system destruction, intense erosion processes (leading to CO2 release from soil to the atmosphere and thunderstorms (which will generate increased forest fires and pollution, whereas

  16. From Risk Towards Resilience: Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptability to Climate Change in the Mekong Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, F. H.; Yasuhara, K.; Tamura, M.; Tabayashi, Y.

    2012-12-01

    While efforts to mainstream climate adaptation have only begun in recent years, many developing regions are already taking measures to proof themselves from various natural disasters, including storm surges, flooding, land subsidence, and erosion. In the Asia-Pacific region, one of the most vulnerable in the world, climate resilience is urgently needed due to sea level rise and the increasing frequency and intensity of climate events. Yet, many regions and communities are unprepared due to insufficient awareness of disaster risks. In order to utilize the science of the changing environment more effectively, there is a critical need to understand the social context and perception of those who are affected by climate change. Using the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam as an example, we discuss our current efforts to develop a vulnerability and adaptation index for building climate resilience in the Asia-Pacific Region. A survey of current adaptation efforts in this region will be shown and preliminary findings from our survey to understand the perception of disaster risk in this region will be discussed.

  17. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  18. The nuclear option in front of climate change. Associated risks, limitations and inhibition to alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the context of struggle against climate change, the reduction of fossil energy consumption and of the associated carbon dioxide production is considered as the main lever of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and nuclear energy is then a matter of debate as a massively available de-carbonated energy but presenting some unacceptable risks. In this synthesis, the authors first propose an overview of risks which cannot be separated from the use of nuclear energy: proliferation as a major, persistent and often ignored threat, a re-assessed and increasing risk of accident, and an accumulation of wastes, materials and sites. In a second part, they show that it has a limited efficiency on emission reduction: indirect but non-null CO2 emissions, influence of the energy mix, marginal contribution to emission management, declining energetic and climatic role, limited field of action. In the third part, the authors state that nuclear energy could be an inhibitor to the most performing solutions

  19. Uncertainty of tipping elements on risk analysis in hydrology under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Tawatari, R.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2015-12-01

    Risk analysis in this study characterizes the events that could be caused by climate change and estimates their effects on society. In order to characterize climate change risks, events that might be caused by climate change will be investigated focusing on critical geophysical phenomena such as changes in thermohaline circulation (THC) in oceans and the large-scale melting of the Greenland and other ice sheets. The results of numerical experiments with climate models and paleoclimate studies will be referenced in listing up these phenomena. The trigger mechanisms, tendency to occur and relationship of these phenomena to global climate will be clarified. To clarify that relationship between the RCP scenarios and tipping elements, we identified which year tipping elements in case of "Arctic summer sea ice" and "Greenland ice sheet" are appeared using the increase of global average temperature in 5 GCMs under RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from Zickfeld et al. (2013) and IPCC (2013), and tipping point of each tipping elements from IPCC (2013). In case of "Greenland ice sheet" (Tipping point takes a value within the range of 1.0oC and 4.0oC), we found that "Greenland ice sheet" may melt down when the tipping point is 1.0oC as lowest value. On the other hand, when tipping point sets as 4.0oC, it may not melt down except for RCP 8.5. As above, we show the uncertainty of tipping point itself. In future, it is necessary how to reflect such uncertainty in risk analysis in hydrology.

  20. Stakeholder dialogues. Opportunities and risks of climate change; Stakeholder-Dialoge. Chancen und Risiken des Klimawandels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Esther; Gebauer, Jana; Dunkelberg, Elisa; Hirschfeld, Jesko; Hirschl, Bernd; Rotter, Maja; Stegnitz, Antje; Wurbs, Sven [Institut fuer oekologische Wirtschaftsforschung (IOeW), Berlin (Germany); Lotz, Wiebke; Welp, Martin [Hochschule fuer nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (F.H.) (Germany)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change as a global problem has specific local effects, which in addition to natural areas also affect social and technical systems. The consequences of climate change will differ concerning the different sectors and regions and can be associated with both risks and opportunities to be. To effectively protect against risks, but to also use opportunities, appropriate adaptation measures are needed. In this context, the Competence Centre on Climate Impacts and Adaptation in the Federal Environmental Agency (KomPass) introduced in 2009 and 2010 a series of stakeholder dialogues that culminated in a cross-thematic and cross-sectoral national conference ''Already adapted?''. The events were part of the research project ''Stakeholder Dialogues: Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change'', conducted by the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IOeW) in cooperation with the University of Applied Sciences Eberswalde. Some dialogues were held in cooperation with partners from respective associations or authorities. The National Dialogue took place in cooperation with the agency compass orange. The aim of the dialogues was one hand to capture the need for action resulting from climate change, and analyze and develop approaches to adaptation strategies.The different sectors and industries were represented by associations and companies, ministries and authorities and by civil society and academia. On the other hand adaptation needs, demands on the political framework, and research and cooperation needs should be be assessed and analyzed in an interdisciplinary process. From this, KomPass will derive recommendations for the design of the national Action Plan Adaptation and feed into the ongoing process. (orig.)

  1. Assessment of Ecological Risk to Land Use in Liaoning Province Based on Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province,the annual and seasonal light,heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25 ℃/10 a,the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2 mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying,featuring "significantly increased temperature,the decreased precipitation and sunshine". These features are significant in autumn,thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the phenology boundaries. The results of scenario analysis on ecological security show that the ecological risk is spreading rapidly from the northwest to the east and to the south and form the southeastern and southern coastal line to the inland;different ecological land-use system have different ecological fragility. Specifically,the bare land and low coverage grassland have highest ecological vulnerability,while the forest and paddy filed have lowest ecological vulnerability. Therefore,suggestions on the ecological land use are put forward in terms of maintaining the overall ecological land use balance,saving water and adapting to climate change.

  2. Game theory and corporate governance: conditions for effective stewardship of companies exposed to climate change risks

    OpenAIRE

    Kruitwagen, L; Madani, K.; Caldecott, B; Workman, MHW

    2016-01-01

    Engagement between investors and corporate boards has been suggested as a pathway to mitigate stranded asset and climate change risks. Debate is ongoing as to whether divestment or active ownership strategies are more appropriate to deliver longterm value and environmental sustainability. The paper tests the effectiveness of owner engagement strategies by studying the conditions for cooperation between investors and their companies. Characteristics of investors and compan...

  3. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  4. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Dike Safety and Flood Risk in the Vidaa River System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Larsen, J.;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on the flood risk and dike safety in the Vidaa River system, a cross-border catchment located in the southern part of Jutland, Denmark and northern Germany, is analysed. The river discharges to the Wadden Sea through a tidal sluice, and extreme water level conditions...... in the river system occur in periods of high sea water levels where the sluice is closed and increased catchment run-off take place. Climate model data from the ENSEMBLES data archive are used to assess the changes in climate variables and the resulting effect on catchment run-off. Extreme catchment run......, and increases in storm surge levels of up to 0.8 m in 2100 are estimated. The changes in extreme catchment run-off and sea water level have a significant effect on the flood risk in the river system. While most parts today have a low risk of dike overtopping with annual exceedance probabilities of 0.1 % or less...

  5. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina;

    to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls......Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD...

  6. Continental-scale assessment of risk to the Australian odonata from climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex A Bush

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85% species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56-69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3-17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other

  7. Climate Change and Children: Health Risks of Abatement Inaction, Health Gains from Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony J McMichael

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available As human-driven climate change advances, many adults fret about the losses of livelihoods, houses and farms that may result. Children fret about their parents’ worries and about information they hear, but do not really understand about the world’s climate and perhaps about their own futures. In chronically worried or anxious children, blood cortisol levels rise and adverse changes accrue in various organ systems that prefigure adult-life diseases. Meanwhile, for many millions of children in poor countries who hear little news and live with day-to-day fatalism, climate change threatens the fundamentals of life—food sufficiency, safe drinking water and physical security—and heightens the risks of diarrhoeal disease, malaria and other climate-sensitive infections. Poor and disadvantaged populations, and especially their children, will bear the brunt of climate-related trauma, disease and premature death over the next few decades and, less directly, from social disruption, impoverishment and displacement. The recent droughts in Somalia as the Indian Ocean warmed and monsoonal rains failed, on top of chronic civil war, forced hundreds of thousands of Somali families into north-eastern Kenya’s vast Dadaab refugee camps, where, for children, shortages of food, water, hygiene and schooling has endangered physical, emotional and mental health. Children warrant special concern, both as children per se and as the coming generation likely to face ever more extreme climate conditions later this century. As children, they face diverse risks, from violent weather, proliferating aeroallergens, heat extremes and mobilised microbes, through to reduced recreational facilities, chronic anxieties about the future and health hazards of displacement and local resource conflict. Many will come to regard their parents’ generation and complacency as culpable.

  8. Proceedings of the conference days on 'Climate change impacts on coastal risks'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document gathers the articles of the presentations given during this conference about the climate change impacts on coastal risks: - Topic 1 - forcing changes: Regional sea level changes rebuilt for the last five decades; Sea level modeling in decennial and centennial experiments of the coupled CNRM-CERFACS model; Sea level state simulations in the Atlantic ocean between 1960 and 2100 for 3 climate change scenarios; Wave trends and characteristics variability in the Bay of Biscay from 1958 to 2001; Climate change impacts on storm events affecting the European coastline, the MICORE project; CECILE project: coastal environmental changes, impacts of sea level rise; Hydro-dynamism of a meso-tidal bay-shore in modal conditions and in storm conditions, Suscinio Bay, South-Brittany; - Topic 2 - impacts on unforeseen turns of events: VULSACO - vulnerability of sandy coastal systems in front of climate changes and anthropic pressures, methods, tools, results and lessons learnt; Climate change vulnerability with a 2DH modeling on 4 French beaches; Analysis of the 'Truc-Vert' beach (Gironde) evolution over a decennial period, link with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Impact of the reduction of the Rhone river solid fraction on the delta coastline mobility since the Little Ice Age; Mega-blocs of the eastern side of the Fos Gulf as markers of exceptional SW-oriented storms; Implementation of a multi-model approach to evaluate the Languedoc coast exposure to marine submersions in a climate change context; Continuous video observation of the littoral: multi-scales and multi-processes; - Topic 3 - Socio-economic impacts: Climate change and coastal risk evaluation in North Africa; Assessment of damage from storm surge and sea level rise to coastal cities: lessons from the Miami area; Construction and environmental protection of centre-west Atlantic coastal communities: contribution of geo-history; Consideration of climate change effects in new coastal protection schemes

  9. Methodology of risk assessment of loss of water resources due to climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Israfilov, Yusif; Israfilov, Rauf; Guliyev, Hatam; Afandiyev, Galib

    2016-04-01

    For sustainable development and management of rational use of water resources of Azerbaijan Republic it is actual to forecast their changes taking into account different scenarios of climate changes and assessment of possible risks of loss of sections of water resources. The major part of the Azerbaijani territory is located in the arid climate and the vast majority of water is used in the national economic production. An optimal use of conditional groundwater and surface water is of great strategic importance for economy of the country in terms of lack of common water resources. Low annual rate of sediments, high evaporation and complex natural and hydrogeological conditions prevent sustainable formation of conditioned resources of ground and surface water. In addition, reserves of fresh water resources are not equally distributed throughout the Azerbaijani territory. The lack of the common water balance creates tension in the rational use of fresh water resources in various sectors of the national economy, especially in agriculture, and as a result, in food security of the republic. However, the fresh water resources of the republic have direct proportional dependence on climatic factors. 75-85% of the resources of ground stratum-pore water of piedmont plains and fracture-vein water of mountain regions are formed by the infiltration of rainfall and condensate water. Changes of climate parameters involve changes in the hydrological cycle of the hydrosphere and as a rule, are reflected on their resources. Forecasting changes of water resources of the hydrosphere with different scenarios of climate change in regional mathematical models allowed estimating the extent of their relationship and improving the quality of decisions. At the same time, it is extremely necessary to obtain additional data for risk assessment and management to reduce water resources for a detailed analysis, forecasting the quantitative and qualitative parameters of resources, and also for

  10. Livelihoods and climate change : combining disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change adaptation in a new approach to the reduction of vulnerability and poverty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, I.; Soussan, J.; Hammill, A.

    2003-07-01

    This paper provides a framework for researchers and policy-makers that are taking action on climate change adaptation. It presents innovative and sustainable ways to respond to the changing global climate. It focuses, in particular, on international research and policy initiatives on climate change, vulnerable communities and adaptation. The international and multi-disciplinary task force that put the framework together includes experts from the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, conservation and poverty reduction. The report emphasizes that successful climate change adaptation should be accomplished through actions that reduce the vulnerabilities of poor people and poor countries because people's livelihoods shape poverty and their ability to move out of poverty. The task force identifies the need to integrate a climate change adaptation approach based on the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in different parts of the world. The examples cited in this report include: (1) mangrove rehabilitation in Vietnam, (2) community-based rang eland rehabilitation for carbon sequestration in Sudan, (3) agroecological roots of resilience in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala, and (4) watershed restoration and development in Maharashtra State, India. refs., figs.

  11. Livelihoods and climate change : combining disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change adaptation in a new approach to the reduction of vulnerability and poverty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper provides a framework for researchers and policy-makers that are taking action on climate change adaptation. It presents innovative and sustainable ways to respond to the changing global climate. It focuses, in particular, on international research and policy initiatives on climate change, vulnerable communities and adaptation. The international and multi-disciplinary task force that put the framework together includes experts from the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, conservation and poverty reduction. The report emphasizes that successful climate change adaptation should be accomplished through actions that reduce the vulnerabilities of poor people and poor countries because people's livelihoods shape poverty and their ability to move out of poverty. The task force identifies the need to integrate a climate change adaptation approach based on the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in different parts of the world. The examples cited in this report include: (1) mangrove rehabilitation in Vietnam, (2) community-based rang eland rehabilitation for carbon sequestration in Sudan, (3) agro-ecological roots of resilience in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala, and (4) watershed restoration and development in Maharashtra State, India. refs., figs

  12. From Risk to Opportunity. How Insurers Can Proactively and Profitably Manage Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Last year's USD 45 billion of insured losses from Hurricane Katrina was only the latest reminder of why investors and consumers are concerned about the impacts of climate change on the insurance industry. Twelve months after the devastating storm hit New Orleans, insurers and their shareholders are still feeling the ripples. Record insured losses, rating downgrades, coverage pullbacks and class-action lawsuits are just a few of the reverberations that have been felt across the industry. Meanwhile, consumers are feeling the combined sting of price shocks and reduced availability. So serious is the issue that 20 leading investors, representing over $800 billion in assets, called on the nation's largest insurance companies to disclose their financial exposure from climate change and steps they are taking to reduce those financial impacts. But, while most of the attention is focused on the growing risks, climate change also creates vast business opportunities to be part of the solution to global warming. Just as the industry has historically asserted its leadership to minimize risks from building fires and earthquakes, insurers have a huge opportunity today to develop creative loss-prevention products and services that will reduce climate-related losses for consumers, governments and insurers, while trimming the emissions causing global warming. This report focuses on the encouraging progress made by insurers to develop these new products and services. It identifies more than 190 concrete examples available, or soon-to-be-available, from dozens of insurance providers in 16 countries. In addition to benefiting insurers' core business and investment activities, these programs afford insurers the opportunity to differentiate their products from their competitors, while also enhancing their reputation with customers who are increasingly looking for all sectors of the industry to come forward with effective responses to the threats caused by climate change. More than half

  13. Urbanization and climate change impacts on future urban flood risk in Can Tho city, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. T. L. Huong

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban development increases flood risk in cities due to local changes in hydrological and hydrometeorological conditions that increase flood hazard, and also to urban concentrations that increase the vulnerability. The relationship between the increasing urban runoff and flooding due to increased imperviousness better perceived than that between the cyclic impact of urban growth and the urban rainfall via microclimatic changes. The large-scale, global impacts due to climate variability and change could compound these risks. We present the case of a typical third world city – Can Tho (the biggest city in Mekong River Delta, Vietnam – faced with multiple future challenges, namely: (i climate change-driven sea-level rise and tidal effect, (ii increase river runoff due to climate change, (iii increased urban runoff driven by imperviousness, and (iv enhancement of extreme rainfall due to urban growth-driven micro-climatic change (urban heat islands. A set of model simulations were used to assess the future impact of the combination of these influences. Urban growth of the city was projected up to year 2100 based on historical growth patterns, using a land-use simulation model (Dinamica-EGO. A dynamic limited-area atmospheric model (WRF, coupled with a detailed land-surface model with vegetation parameterization (Noah LSM, was employed in controlled numerical experiments to estimate the anticipated changes in extreme rainfall patterns due to urban heat island effect. Finally, a 1-D/2-D coupled urban-drainage/flooding model (SWMM-Brezo was used to simulate storm-sewer surcharge and surface inundation to establish the increase in the flood risk resulting from the changes. The results show that, if the city develops as predicted, the maximum of inundation depth and area in Can Tho will increase by about 20%. The impact of climate change on inundation is more serious than that of urbanization. The worse case may occur if the sea level rises 100 cm and

  14. Climate change risks and environmental design for resilient urban regeneration. Napoli Est pilot case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria D’Ambrosio

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper shows the results of the first phase of the research project “METROPOLIS - Methodologies and Technologies for integrated and sustainable adaptation and security of urban systems” developed by STRESS Scarl - High Technology District for Sustainable Building of the Campania Region. The project is aimed at the development of innovative strategies for a resilient urban system and design guidelines for appropriate choices of urban regeneration based on the assessment and mitigation of natural and man-made hazards. The paper describes the results concerning the definition of innovative methodologies for the knowledge and mapping of urban vulnerability to climate risks in the East Naples area. The cross-disciplinary and multi-scale approach integrates knowledge and technology from university and industrial partners to develop a decision support tool in the field of urban regeneration. The study of the impacts of extreme weather events, based on the simulation of climate change scenarios in the area of East Naples, includes the data management in a GIS environment from satellite remote sensing, direct surveys and simulation software, focusing on the environmental and technological performance of urban spaces and elements. The research results report risk scenarios for pluvial flood and heat waves hazards according to both climatic variables, both aggravating phenomena arising from the characteristics of urban settlements. The complex reading of the buildings-open spaces system and its response to climate change conditions has allowed to define the vulnerability of elements at risk, as well as adaptation and mitigation solutions to be implemented within urban regeneration interventions, identifying critical issues in relation to comfort and environmental risk conditions, consumption and efficient use of resources, compliance of the technological choices to specific requirements. 

  15. Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gero, A.; Méheux, K.; Dominey-Howes, D.

    2011-01-01

    It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

  16. Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

  17. Climate change-induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    In coastal regions, several hazards may lead to floods, and if they occur concurrently, the damage will be higher than for the hazards individually. The paper outlines an approach for carrying out a risk analysis with several hazards and applies it on a case study in Greater Copenhagen where two...... and that climate change most likely will not increase the correlation. The overall change in flood return periods over a forecast horizon of 110 years are estimated to decrease by one to three orders of magnitude....

  18. Climate Change and Potato Production in Contrasting South African Agro-Ecosystems 2. Assessing Risks and Opportunities of Adaptation Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franke, A.C.; Haverkort, A.J.; Steyn, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to assess the risks and opportunities posed by climate change to potato growers in South Africa and to evaluate adaptation measures in the form of changes in planting time growers could adopt to optimise land and water use efficiencies in potato, using a climate model of past, presen

  19. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  20. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  1. Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, W L; Li, Z H; Chen, H J; Wan, F H; Qu, W W; Zhang, Z; Kriticos, D J

    2012-04-01

    Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions, B. zonata will be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution of B. zonata will expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually by B. zonata were consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. zonata projected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread of B. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.

  2. KLARA. Climate change - impacts, risks, adaptation; KLARA. Klimawandel - Auswirkungen, Risiken, Anpassung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stock, M. (ed.)

    2005-07-15

    The regional study KLARA, an acronym for 'Climate change - impacts, risks, Adaptation', present results of investigations on different areas of potential vulnerability for the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg. The areas covered are: 1. Analysis of vulnerabilities, 2. Regional climate change in Baden-Wuerttemberg, 3. Possible impacts on human health, 4. Impacts on agriculture including fruit-growing and viticulture, 5. Impacts on forestry, 6. Possible chances for tourism in the summer, 7. Impacts on nature, in particular ornithology, 8. Impacts on river navigation and use of hydropower, 9. Development of extreme events with high damage potential. An essential objective of the study is the identification of impact-reducing measures of adaptation in the areas considered. (orig.)

  3. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  4. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  5. Adaptation to Climate Change and Managing Disaster Risk in the Caribbean and South-East Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolcemascolo, G. [Asian Disaster Preparedness Center ADPC, Pathumthani (Thailand); Collymore, J.; Keipi, K. [Inter-American Development Bank IDB, Christ Church (Barbados)

    2004-05-01

    Small island and coastal nations of the world have long been recognized as being among the most likely to be affected by the potential impacts of global climate change. Such nations may be found in both the Caribbean and Asian regions. These regions share other commonalities as well, such as tropical climates and, to some extent, the hazards to which these countries are vulnerable. The inextricable linkage between climate change and disaster management emerges from the potential of the former to result in an increased frequency and severity of hydro-meteorological hazards and the associated increase in risk faced by countries as a whole and by vulnerable communities in particular. Within the Caribbean, the most visible of these impacts has been the increasing vulnerability to severe storms and the increased frequency and intensity of flood events. In Asia, the severity of weather extremes associated with the El Nino phenomenon has been apparent. Recent events have resulted in significant social, economic and environmental losses. But, the more gradual-yet nevertheless potentially as catastrophic-impacts expected from climate change include enhanced coastal and beach erosion; loss of land and property; dislocation of people; reduced resilience of coastal ecosystems and hence reduced viability for fisheries; and the bleaching and destruction of coral reefs. For the island states of both the Caribbean and Southeast Asia, which depend heavily on tourism, agriculture and fisheries for their livelihood, these impacts could be ruinous. For many countries, increased vulnerability to water shortages due to climate change is also a very significant concern. The need for a comprehensive integrated approach to natural hazard risk management that would combine the broader climate change and risk management agendas, as well as the urgency to advance the mainstreaming of disaster management and climate change, resulted in the convening of the Seminar on Climate Change and Severe

  6. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  7. CLIMB - Climate induced changes on the hydrology of mediterranean basins - Reducing uncertainties and quantifying risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2010-05-01

    According to future climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources. Threats include severe droughts and extreme flooding, salinization of coastal aquifers, degradation of fertile soils and desertification due to poor and unsustainable water management practices. It can be foreseen that, unless appropriate adaptation measures are undertaken, the changes in the hydrologic cycle will give rise to an increasing potential for tension and conflict among the political and economic actors in this vulnerable region. The presented project initiative CLIMB, funded under EC's 7th Framework Program (FP7-ENV-2009-1), has started in January 2010. In its 4-year design, it shall analyze ongoing and future climate induced changes in hydrological budgets and extremes across the Mediterranean and neighboring regions. This is undertaken in study sites located in Sardinia, Northern Italy, Southern France, Tunisia, Egypt and the Palestinian-administered area Gaza. The work plan is targeted to selected river or aquifer catchments, where the consortium will employ a combination of novel field monitoring and remote sensing concepts, data assimilation, integrated hydrologic (and biophysical) modeling and socioeconomic factor analyses to reduce existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. Advanced climate scenario analysis will be employed and available ensembles of regional climate model simulations will be downscaling. This process will provide the drivers for an ensemble of hydro(-geo)logical models with different degrees of complexity in terms of process description and level of integration. The results of hydrological modeling and socio-economic factor analysis will enable the development of a GIS-based Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool. This tool will serve as a platform

  8. Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donovan, K.

    2014-12-01

    When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

  9. A report on the climate change and investment risk workshop : best practices for Canadian pension funds and institutional investors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Investors realize that the value of investment portfolios can be influenced by environmental risks such as climate change. This report is intended to raise awareness within the financial community of climate change risk, and to encourage greater corporate disclosure on climate change. It presents recommended best practices from the Social Investment Organization (SIO) regarding pension funds and other institutional investors for assessing and managing climate change risk. In 2003, 87 institutional investors handling $9 trillion, asked the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the world to disclose investment-relevant information concerning their greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 800 organizations in all sectors of the Canadian economy have launched voluntary action plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The SIO recommends that Canadian institutional investors should sign the Carbon Disclosure Project, a mechanism designed to obtain carbon risk data from the largest companies in the world. Mandatory disclosure programs have been a successful tool in promoting sustainable development. 37 refs

  10. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    substantially when flood protection level exceeds 20 years. These findings might be useful for decision-makers to weight the size of water infrastructure investment and emergency response capacity under climate change. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S.N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Jongman et al., 2015. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proceedings of National Academy of the United States of America 112, E2271-E2280, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1414439112. Sadoff et al., 2015. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, UK, 180 pp. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726. Yamazaki et al., 2014. Development of the Global Width Database for Large Rivers. Water Resources Research 50, 3467-3480, doi: 10.1002/2013WR014664.

  11. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P Guhathakurta; O P Sreejith; P A Menon

    2011-06-01

    The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India.

  12. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  13. Expert opinion on extinction risk and climate change adaptation for biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debra Javeline

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Despite projections of biodiversity loss and proposed adaptations to climate change, few data exist on the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation strategies in minimizing biodiversity loss. Given the urgent need for action, scientific experts can fill critical information gaps by providing rapid and discerning risk assessment. A survey of 2,329 biodiversity experts projects, on average, that 9.5% of species will become extinct due to climate change within the next 100 years. This average projection is low relative to previously published values but substantial in absolute terms, because it amounts to a loss of hundreds of thousands of species over the next century. The average projection increases to 21% when experts are asked to estimate the percentage of species that will become extinct within the next 100 years due to climate change in combination with other causes. More than three-quarters of respondents reported being uncertain about their extinction estimates. A majority of experts preferred protected areas or corridors to reduce extinction risk but identified ex situ conservation and no intervention as the most feasible strategies. Experts also suggest that managed relocation of species, a particular adaptation strategy, is justifiable and effective in some situations but not others. Justifiable circumstances include the prevention of species extinction and overcoming human-made barriers to dispersal, and while experts are divided on the potential effectiveness of managed relocation for most taxonomic groups, higher percentages predict it effective for woody plants, terrestrial insects, and mammals. Most experts are open to the potential benefits of managed relocation but are concerned about unintended harmful consequences, particularly putting non-target species at risk of extinction. On balance, published biodiversity scientists feel that managed relocation, despite controversy about it, can be part of the conservation

  14. Assessment of coastal flood risk in a changing climate along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.

    2014-12-01

    Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). We have developed a novel framework to construct a physics-based storm surge model that includes projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios. Numerous experiments were conducted and it was concluded that a number of influencing factors, other than SLR, should be included in future assessments of coastal flooding under climate change; e.g., shoreline changes, barrier island morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. These factors can significantly affect the path, pattern, and magnitude of flooding depths and inundation along the coastline (Bilskie et al., 2014; Passeri et al., 2014). Using these factors, a storm surge model of the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) representing present day conditions is modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape. This adapted model is then used to assess flood risk in terms of the 100-year floodplain surface under SLR scenarios. A suite of hundreds of synthetic storms, derived by JPM-OS (Joint Probability Method - Optimum Sampling), are filtered to obtain the storms necessary to represent the statistically determined 100-year floodplain. The NGOM storm surge model is applied to simulate the synthetic storms and determine, for each storm, the flooding surface and depth, for four SLR scenarios for the year 2100 as prescribed by Parris et al. (2012). The collection of results facilitate the estimation of water surface elevation vs. frequency curves across the floodplain and the statistically defined 100-year floodplain is extracted. This novel method to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme

  15. How Has Human-induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Aghakouchak, A.; Livneh, B.; Quan, X. W.; Eischeid, J. K.

    2015-12-01

    The current California drought has cast a heavy burden on statewide agriculture and water resources, further exacerbated by concurrent extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, industrial-era global radiative forcing brings into question the role of long-term climate change on CA drought. How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk? Here, observations and model experimentation are applied to characterize this drought employing metrics that synthesize drought duration, cumulative precipitation deficit, and soil moisture depletion. The model simulations show that increases in radiative forcing since the late 19th Century induces both increased annual precipitation and increased surface temperature over California, consistent with prior model studies and with observed long-term change. As a result, there is no material difference in the frequency of droughts defined using bivariate indicators of precipitation and near-surface (10-cm) soil moisture, because shallow soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased evaporation driven by warming, which compensates the increase in the precipitation. However, when using soil moisture within a deep root zone layer (1-m) as co-variate, droughts become less frequent because deep soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased precipitation. The results illustrate the different land surface responses to anthropogenic forcing that are relevant for near-surface moisture exchange and for root zone moisture availability. The latter is especially relevant for agricultural impacts as the deep layer dictates moisture availability for plants, trees, and many crops. The results thus indicate the net effect of climate change has made agricultural drought less likely, and that the current severe impacts of drought on California's agriculture has not been substantially caused by long-term climate changes.

  16. Public Communication Model for Practical Countermeasure on Climate Change Risk: On the Subject of Establishing Public Sphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, SeongKyung

    2010-09-15

    Risk problems occurred by climate change distinguishes itself from other problems in its nature and influence. It is reasonable for ordinary citizens are unable to realize the climate change problems, and great gap exists between potential disaster and perception of the public as a result. These problems must be solved via democratic procedures and processes. Raising probability concerning governance of climate change risks is possible by balance and harmony of political will, apposite policy, and public supports by participation. This research proposes for establishment of realistic public sphere which is a precondition for countermeasure.

  17. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Drought Risk for the Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strzepek, K. M.; Boehlert, B. B.; Vogel, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Approximately 90 percent of the Nile River runoff is generated within two regions—the Ethiopian highlands and the Lake Victoria and Equatorial Lakes—that have historically contrasting precipitation regimes. As a result of uncorrelated interannual rainfall variability, meteorological droughts in one region are typically offset by wetter periods in the other, thus having a moderating effect on downstream Nile river flow to Sudan and Egypt. Under climate change, the drivers of these contrasting rainfall regimes (including the annual migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) may be fundamentally altered such that droughts become correlated between these regions, leading to unprecedented low flows in the downstream Nile. The water management challenges that would result are likely to be exacerbated if climate change increases drought occurrence and intensity across the basin. In this research, we first assess the effect of climate change on drought frequency and intensity across eight Nile subbasins by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to the full suite of 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change General Circulation Models for three IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)). We then use these outputs to evaluate how climate change affects the correlation of drought occurrence and intensity between the Ethiopian highlands and the Lake Victoria and Equatorial Lakes regions. In the first inquiry, we find that the frequency of drought over the next century based on precipitation alone (SPI) is projected to increase in the northern Nile basin, and decrease in the southern regions. Drought frequencies based on both precipitation and temperature (PDSI) are projected to increase across most of the Nile basin, however, with almost universally experienced increases in drought risk by the late 21st century. For both measures, the Ethiopia

  18. Climate change and non-stationary flood risk for the Upper Truckee River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. E. Condon

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Future flood frequency for the Upper Truckee River Basin (UTRB is assessed using non-stationary extreme value models and design life risk methodology. Historical floods are simulated at two UTRB gauge locations, Farad and Reno using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model and non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV models. The non-stationary GEV models are fit to the cool season (November–April monthly maximum flows using historical monthly precipitation totals and average temperature. Future cool season flood distributions are subsequently calculated using downscaled projections of precipitation and temperature from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP-5 archive. The resulting exceedance probabilities are combined into a single risk metric using recent developments in design life risk methodologies. This paper provides the first end-to-end analysis using non-stationary GEV methods coupled with contemporary downscaled climate projections to demonstrate how the risk profile of existing infrastructure evolves with time over its design life. Results show that flood risk increases significantly over the analysis period (from 1950 through 2099. This highlights the potential to underestimate flood risk using traditional methodologies that do not account for time varying risk. Although model parameters, for the non-stationary method are sensitive to small changes in input parameters, analysis shows that the changes in risk over time are robust. Overall, flood risk at both locations (Farad and Reno is projected to increase 10–20% between the historical period 1950–1999 and the future period 2000–2050 and 30–50% between the same historical period and 2050–2099.

  19. CLIMATE CHANGES AS THE RISK FACTOR IN MILK PRODUCTION IN WIELKOPOLSKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryszard Chaberski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The pilot researches were conducted in Wielkopolska. They aimed initial identifi cation of cows reaction on changing of THI, which are likened to temperature and humidity conditions of air. The subjected cows characterize with high productivity, exceeding 40kg of milk per day, independently from lactation stages. The results display that the day s production of raw milk, as well as fat and protein content, do not only depend on lactation stage but also on the value of THI factors. Higher THI is accompanied by loss in the weight of milk and drop in its technological utility. The climate warming may escalate the risk of production loss during the heats.

  20. GAIA: A Project for Exploring Risks and Policy Implications of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpkins, S.; Paxton, L. J.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Weiss, M.; Darrin, A.

    2010-12-01

    The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory is bringing resources together to create a support environment to address the impact of climate change on national interests with the Global Assimilation of Information for Action (GAIA) project. GAIA is meant to explore consequences, gaps, and resolutions for specific issues that arise from consequences of climate change. For looking at national issues, the usual approach is to 'map' a problem space and 'explore' a solution space, often from the perspective of one sponsoring agency. However, a multi-use application such as GAIA is meant to be responsive to all requests from a myriad of potential perspectives. Symposia and seminars are helpful in scoping issues and gathering information from assembled subject matter experts (SMEs). At APL we have been researching the efficacy of collaborative event designs which provide more robust data collection than the typical seminar, involve more diversity within the community of practice and provide quantitative analysis to underpin subjective conclusions. Participants will be asked to incorporate risk mitigation and behavioral economics into derived recommendations. APL has developed unique data capture methodologies that lend themselves to discovering innovative practices and allowing for deliberate selection of beneficial but less than ideal options; this is seen when the ideal solution has low probability of success or is impractical. The result is a balanced strategy developed by an informed cadre. It is through this process that APL intends to generate robust understanding of community requirements for GAIA and inform an application capable of examining climate change solution space.

  1. Resilience to the Health Risks of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristie L. Ebi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Current public health strategies, policies, and measures are being modified to enhance current health protection to climate-sensitive health outcomes. These modifications are critical to decrease vulnerability to climate variability, but do not necessarily increase resilience to future (and different weather patterns. Communities resilient to the health risks of climate change anticipate risks; reduce vulnerability to those risks; prepare for and respond quickly and effectively to threats; and recover faster, with increased capacity to prepare for and respond to the next threat. Increasing resilience includes top-down (e.g., strengthening and maintaining disaster risk management programs and bottom-up (e.g., increasing social capital measures, and focuses not only on the risks presented by climate change but also on the underlying socioeconomic, geographic, and other vulnerabilities that affect the extent and magnitude of impacts. Three examples are discussed of public health programs designed for other purposes that provide opportunities for increasing the capacity of communities to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to the health risks of extreme weather and climate events. Incorporating elements of adaptive management into public health practice, including a strong and explicit focus on iteratively managing risks, will increase effective management of climate change risks.

  2. Resilience to the health risks of extreme weather events in a changing climate in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L

    2011-12-01

    Current public health strategies, policies, and measures are being modified to enhance current health protection to climate-sensitive health outcomes. These modifications are critical to decrease vulnerability to climate variability, but do not necessarily increase resilience to future (and different) weather patterns. Communities resilient to the health risks of climate change anticipate risks; reduce vulnerability to those risks; prepare for and respond quickly and effectively to threats; and recover faster, with increased capacity to prepare for and respond to the next threat. Increasing resilience includes top-down (e.g., strengthening and maintaining disaster risk management programs) and bottom-up (e.g., increasing social capital) measures, and focuses not only on the risks presented by climate change but also on the underlying socioeconomic, geographic, and other vulnerabilities that affect the extent and magnitude of impacts. Three examples are discussed of public health programs designed for other purposes that provide opportunities for increasing the capacity of communities to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to the health risks of extreme weather and climate events. Incorporating elements of adaptive management into public health practice, including a strong and explicit focus on iteratively managing risks, will increase effective management of climate change risks. PMID:22408590

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE RISK MANAGEMENT IN SERBIAN INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todor Backalic

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes require special attention and global monitoring. Impacts on nature and industry are increasingly evident. Water transport could be the backbone of the future European combined transport system. Unfortunately, risks in water transport are perhaps an under researched area and consequently, this article outlines a rationale, why it is necessary to develop competence about risk in water transport. The development of the cargo transport in river traffic depends directly on technical-exploitative characteristics of the network of inland waterways. Research of navigational abilities of inland waterways always comes before building ships or making a transport schedule. Navigation characteristics of rivers have to be determined as precise as possible, especially from the aspect of determination the possible draught of vessels. River transport due to their operational business and environmental conditions faced with several risks having different degrees of consequences. Current risk assessment methods for water transport just consider some dramatic events. We present a new method for the assessment of risk and vulnerability of water transport where river depth represents a crucial part. The analysis of water level changes on Serbian rivers during the last sixty years was done.

  4. Agrometeorological Learning Increasing Farmers’ Knowledge in Coping with Climate Change and Unusual Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunita T. Winarto

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Enriching farmers’ knowledge of the risks and consequences of climate change is the most promising strategy to better assist them. Nevertheless, we have to bear in mind that people filter and absorb scientific knowledge through pre-existing ­cultural models and aspirations for desired outcomes. The severe pest/disease outbreaks during the La-Niña periods of 2009 and 2010/2011, and the unpreparedness of farmers in many places in Java, was a timely opportunity for many parties to reflect seriously on the deficiencies in our approaches and facilitations.  Our inter-disciplinary collaboration proved successful in strengthening and enriching farmers’ knowledge by bringing agrometeorological thinking and knowledge, based on scientific ideas, premises, and methods, to local people who had their own “ethnoscience.” This benefits farmers over an extended period and until the public extension intermediaries have been sufficiently trained. Our suggestions are: assisting farmers to discover their own vulnerability issues through continuous dialogues and knowledge exchange in “Science/Climate Field Shops,” and the measurement of rainfall and the observation of weather and climate implications for fields and crops in a standardized way as the basis of an improved Climate Field School. To that end the training of public extension intermediaries is necessary.

  5. Vulnerability Index to Climate Change and its Application for Community-level Risk Assessment in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsamon Limsakul

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the vulnerability-led approach, the Prevalent Community-level Vulnerability Index (PCVI was developed as a simple composite index used to represent community-level vulnerability to climate change in the socioeconomic and hazard contexts. The PCVI consists of three major components which are Exposure & hazard, Socioeconomic-ecological fragility and Coping capacity. All of these components are further comprised of different indicators, representing different aspects of biophysical and social vulnerability of grass-root communities. Based on the results analyzed in the provincial pilot sites, the PCVI could represent both spatial patterns and magnitudes of vulnerability of each community in consistence with the local economic-social-environmental contexts. It generally reflects the differences in the local contexts and factors that determine overall vulnerability of each community. For the ease in calculating the PCVI especially for the provincial operating staffs and general public, the PREvalent Community Climate Change Vulnerability Tool (RECCC was further developed as a user-friendly, Excel-based program. In conclusions, the outputs of this study that include the PCVI and its database as well as the RECCC program are useful not only for analyzing vulnerability and assessing risks of community to climate change, but also for supporting decision-making process in developing and implementing adaptation activities at provincial level. These outputs were also designed for further integrating as a supplementary part of Provincial�s Decision Supporting System (DSS, with the purpose of promoting the participation of local organizations and stakeholders in coping with the adverse impacts of climate change. However, additional development of ERCCC program, together with dissemination of the vulnerability framework as well as the use of ERCCC program to local organizations needs to be continued.

  6. Risk perception and commitment to reduce global climate change in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodríguez-Priego, Nuria

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available An online national survey among the Spanish population (n = 602 was conducted to examine the factors underlying a person’s support for commitments to global climate change reductions. Multiple hierarchical regression analysis was conducted in four steps and a structural equations model was tested. A survey tool designed by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication was applied in order to build scales for the variables introduced in the study. The results show that perceived consumer effectiveness and risk perception are determinant factors of commitment to mitigating global climate change. However, there are differences in the influence that other factors, such as socio-demographics, view of nature and cultural cognition, have on the last predicted variable.Una encuesta online a la población española (n = 602 examina los factores que predicen el apoyo al compromiso con el medio ambiente por parte de los participantes para reducir el cambio climático global. Se realizó una regresión múltiple jerárquica en cuatro pasos y se testó el modelo de ecuaciones estructurales propuesto. En la encuesta se aplicó una herramienta diseñada por el Yale Project on Climate Change Communication con la finalidad de construir escalas para las variables introducidas en el estudio. Los resultados muestran que la efectividad percibida por el consumidor y el riesgo percibido son factores determinantes del apoyo al compromiso para reducir el cambio climático global. No obstante, se encontraron algunas diferencias en cuanto a la influencia de otros factores tales como las variables socio-demográficas, la visión de la naturaleza y la cognición cultural.

  7. Incorporating climate and ocean change into extinction risk assessments for 82 coral species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainard, Russell E; Weijerman, Mariska; Eakin, C Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, Gregory A; Dunlap, Matthew J; Birkeland, Charles

    2013-12-01

    Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration-requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert-opinion threat-based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species-specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species' extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data-limited species likely to be affected by global-scale threats

  8. Climate change impacts and uncertainties in flood risk management: Examples from the North Sea Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, D.; Graham, L.P.; Besten, J. Den; Andreasson, J.; Bergstroem, S.; Engen-Skaugen, T.; Foerland, E.; Groen, R.; Jespersen, M.; Jong, K. de; Olsson, J.

    2012-07-01

    This report presents methods used for estimating the hydrological impacts of climate change and their uncertainties, the expected impacts on extreme flows in Norway, and in Sweden with particular reference to Lake Vaenern, and examples of climate change impacts on river discharge and on agriculture in the Netherlands. Work considering changes in extreme precipitation is also reported, as are methods and strategies for communicating climate change impacts in flood management practice. (eb)

  9. Will climate change increase the risk for critical infrastructure failures in Europe due to extreme precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, Katrin; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    An event based detection algorithm for extreme precipitation is applied to a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations. The algorithm determines extent, location, duration and severity of extreme precipitation events. We assume that precipitation in excess of the local present-day 10-year return value will potentially exceed the capacity of the drainage systems that protect critical infrastructure elements. This assumption is based on legislation for the design of drainage systems which is in place in many European countries. Thus, events exceeding the local 10-year return value are detected. In this study we distinguish between sub-daily events (3 hourly) with high precipitation intensities and long-duration events (1-3 days) with high precipitation amounts. The climate change simulations investigated here were conducted within the EURO-CORDEX framework and exhibit a horizontal resolution of approximately 12.5 km. The period between 1971-2100 forced with observed and scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas concentrations was analysed. Examined are changes in event frequency, event duration and size. The simulations show an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events for the future climate period over most of the area, which is strongest in Northern Europe. Strength and statistical significance of the signal increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work has been conducted within the EU project RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather).

  10. Estimating the Risk of River Flow under Climate Change in the Tsengwen River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsiao-Ping Wei

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the overflow risk of the Tsengwen River under a climate change scenario by using bias-corrected dynamic downscaled data as inputs for a SOBEK model (Deltares, the Netherlands. The results showed that the simulated river flow rate at Yufeng Bridge (upstream, Erxi Bridge (midstream, and XinZong (1 (downstream stations are at risk of exceeding the management plan’s flow rate for three projection periods (1979–2003, 2015–2039, 2075–2099. After validation with the geomorphic and hydrological data collected in this study, the frequency at which the flow rate exceeded the design flood was 2 in 88 events in the base period (1979–2003, 6 in 82 events in the near future (2015–2039, and 10 in 81 events at the end of the century (2075–2099.

  11. An integrated statistical and data-driven framework for supporting flood risk analysis under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Y.; Qin, X. S.; Xie, Y. J.

    2016-02-01

    An integrated statistical and data-driven (ISD) framework was proposed for analyzing river flows and flood frequencies in the Duhe River Basin, China, under climate change. The proposed framework involved four major components: (i) a hybrid model based on ASD (Automated regression-based Statistical Downscaling tool) and KNN (K-nearest neighbor) was used for downscaling rainfall and CDEN (Conditional Density Estimate Network) was applied for downscaling minimum temperature and relative humidity from global circulation models (GCMs) to local weather stations; (ii) Bayesian neural network (BNN) was used for simulating monthly river flows based on projected weather information; (iii) KNN was applied for converting monthly flow to daily time series; (iv) Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was adopted for flood frequency analysis. In this study, the variables from CGCM3 A2 and HadCM3 A2 scenarios were employed as the large-scale predictors. The results indicated that the maximum monthly and annual runoffs would both increase under CGCM3 and HadCM3 A2 emission scenarios at the middle and end of this century. The flood risk in the study area would generally increase with a widening uncertainty range. Compared with traditional approaches, the proposed framework takes the full advantages of a series of statistical and data-driven methods and offers a parsimonious way of projecting flood risks under climatic change conditions.

  12. Climate change, food systems and population health risks in their eco-social context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, A J; Butler, C D; Dixon, J

    2015-10-01

    The establishment of ecological public health as crucial to modern public health is overdue. While the basic concepts have been gestating for decades, receptivity within broader public health has been limited. This position is changing, not least as the population-level impacts of climate change and, more broadly, of limits to growth are emerging from theory and forecasting into daily reality. This paper describes several key elements of ecological public health thinking. These include the 'environmental' risks to human health (often systemic and disruptive, rather than local and toxic) posed by climate change and other forms of adverse global environmental change. Closer recognition of the links between social and environmental factors has been urged--an 'eco-social' approach--and, relatedly, for greater co-operation between social and natural sciences. The authors revisit critics of capitalism who foresaw the global capture and transformation of ecosystems for material human ends, and their resultant despoliation. The perennial call within public health to reduce vulnerability by lessening poverty is more important than ever, given the multifactored threat to the health of the poor which is anticipated, assuming no radical strategies to alleviate these pressures. But enhanced health security for the poor requires more than the reconfiguring of social determinants; it also requires, as the overarching frame, ecological public health. PMID:25896548

  13. An analysis of European riverine flood risk and adaptation measures under projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas; Holz, Friederike; Winsemius, Hessel; de Bruijn, Karind

    2015-04-01

    There is increasing need to assess costs and benefits of adaptation at scales beyond the river basin. In Europe, such estimates are required at the European scale in order to set priorities for action and financing, for instance in the context of the EU Adaptation Strategy. The goal of this work as part of the FP7 BASE project is to develop a flood impact model that can be applied at Pan-European scale and that is able to project changes in flood risk due to climate change and socio-economic developments, and costs of adaptation. For this research, we build upon the global flood hazard estimation method developed by Winsemius et al. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013), that produces flood inundation maps at different return period, for present day (EU WATCH) and future climate (IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5, for five climate models). These maps are used for the assessment of flood impacts. We developed and tested a model for assessing direct economic flood damages by using large scale land use maps. We characterise vulnerable land use functions, in particular residential, commercial, industrial, infrastructure and agriculture, using depth-damage relationships. Furthermore, we apply up to NUTS3 level information on Gross Domestic Product, which is used as a proxy for relative differences in maximum damage values between different areas. Next, we test two adaptation measures, by adjusting flood protection levels and adjusting damage functions. The results show the projected changes in flood risk in the future. For example, on NUTS2 level, flood risk increases in some regions up to 179% (between the baseline scenario 1960-1999 and time slice 2010-2049). On country level there are increases up to 60% for selected climate models. The conference presentation will show the most relevant improvements in damage modelling on the continental scale, and results of the analysis of adaptation measures. The results will be critically discussed under the aspect of major

  14. Managers facing the climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This colloquium aimed to analyze the relations between the climatic changes and extreme meteorological events and on the associated risks. It provides information and knowledge on the state of the art concerning the today scientific knowledge, the prevention measures and the adaptation facing the risks and the difficult estimation of the climatic damages costs. (A.L.B.)

  15. Reducing The Risk Of Abrupt Climate Change: Emission Corridors Preserving The Thermohaline Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, K.

    Paleo-reconstructions have shown that large and abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout the last ice-age cycles. This evidence, supplemented by insights into the complex and nonlinear nature of the climate system, gives raise to the concern that anthropogenic forcing may trigger such events in the future. A prominent example for such a potential climatic shift is the collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circu- lation (THC), which would cause a major cooling of the northern North Atlantic and north-western Europe and considerable regional sea level rise, with possibly severe consequences on, e.g., fisheries, agriculture and ecosystems. In this paper we present emission corridors for the 21st century preserving the THC. Emission corridors embrace the range of future emissions beyond which either the THC collapses or the mitigation burden becomes intolerable. They are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach. We investigate the sensitivity of the emission corridors to the main uncertain parame- ters (climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivities as well as emissions of non CO_2 greenhouse gases). Results show a high dependence of the size of the emis- sion corridors on hydrological and climate sensitivities. For the best-guess values of both parameters we find that the emission corridors are wider than the range spanned by the SRES emissions scenarios. Thus, no immediate mitigation seems necessary in order to preserve the THC. For high but still realistic values of the sensitivities, however, even the low SRES emissions scenarios transgress the corridor boundaries. These findings imply that under 'business as usual' a non-negligible risk of either a THC collapse or an intolerable mitigation burden exists.

  16. Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ecological niche models (ENMs to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii, which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely

  17. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

  18. Perceptions of Obvious and Disruptive Climate Change: Community-Based Risk Assessment for Two Native Villages in Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Rosales

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work operationalizes the determinants of climate change risk, exposure and vulnerability, through the perceptions held by Native hunters, fishers, and gatherers in Savoonga and Shaktoolik, Alaska. Informed by their skill, experience, and the traditional knowledge of their elders, hunters, fishers, and gatherers in these communities are astute observers of their environment and environmental change. A questionnaire is used to sort and rank their perceptions of the most obvious and disruptive elements of climate change as representations of exposure and vulnerability, respectively. Results represent the relative strength and significance of those perceptions of environmental change. In addition to other changes, storms are among the most obvious and disruptive impacts of climate change to respondents in both communities, while changes to sea ice tend to be more disruptive in Savoonga, a more ice-obligate culture, than Shaktoolik. Changes on the tundra are more obvious in Shaktoolik, but is the least disruptive category of change in both villages. Changes along the coast were both obvious and disruptive, albeit more so in Shaktoolik than Savoonga. The findings suggest that traditional ecological knowledge is a valuable source of information to access perceptions of risk, and develop climate risk management and adaptation plans. The questionnaire design and statistical methodology may be of interest to those working on community-based adaptation and risk assessment projects in high-risk, poor, and marginalized Native communities with small populations.

  19. Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2015-12-01

    It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is

  20. The Evolving Risk of Climate Change and National Security: People not Polar Bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titley, D.

    2014-12-01

    This talk will provide a general overview of climate change and discuss why this is a national security issue. Climate change is about people, about water, and about change itself. Understanding the rate of climate change, relative to the abilities of both humans and ecosystems to adapt is critical. I will briefly describe the multiple, independent lines of evidence that the climate is changing, and that the primary cause of this change is a change in atmospheric composition caused by the burning of fossil fuels. I will cover the history of climate change as seen within the U.S. Department of Defense and U.S. Navy, how this challenge is being addressed from budgetary, policy, and political angles, and what are the greatest challenges to national security that arise from climate change and in particular, the associated changes in the Arctic. I will conclude with an assessment of future challenges and opportunities regarding climate change, from science, policy, and political perspectives, and why we know enough to take significant action now, even if we don't know every detail about the future. In addition, this talk will address how to effectively talk about climate change through the use of analogies, plain, non-jargon English, and even a little humor.

  1. Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy integration in Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilli-Sihvola, K.; Väätäinen-Chimpuku, S.

    2015-12-01

    Integration of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) policies, their implementation measures and the contribution of these to development has been gaining attention recently. Due to the shared objectives of CCA and particularly Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a component of DRM, their integration provides many benefits. At the implementation level, DRR and CCA are usually integrated. Policy integration, however, is often lacking. This study presents a novel analysis of the policy integration of DRR and CCA by 1) suggesting a definition for their integration at a general and further at horizontal and vertical levels, 2) using an analysis framework for policy integration cycle, which separates the policy formulation and implementation processes, and 3) applying these to a case study in Zambia. Moreover, the study identifies the key gaps in the integration process, obtains an understanding of identified key factors for creating an enabling environment for the integration, and provides recommendations for further progress. The study is based on a document analysis of the relevant DRM, climate change (CC), agriculture, forestry, water management and meteorology policy documents and Acts, and 21 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Horizontal integration has occurred both ways, as the revised DRM policy draft has incorporated CCA, and the new CC policy draft has incorporated DRR. This is not necessarily an optimal strategy and unless carefully implemented, it may create pressure on institutional structures and duplication of efforts in the implementation. Much less vertical integration takes place, and where it does, no guidance on how potential goal conflicts with sectorial and development objectives ought to be handled. The objectives of the instruments show convergence. At the programme stage, the measures are fully integrated as they can be classified as robust CCA measures, providing benefits in the current and future

  2. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  3. A methodology for risk assessment of municipal infrastructure due to climate change: a case study of London, Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowering, E.; Peck, A.; Simonovic, S.

    2009-12-01

    Natural hazards are increasing in severity as a consequence of climate change. These hazards affect all aspects of municipal infrastructure. Thus a region must adapt its policies and procedures to mitigate the increasing risk to its infrastructure. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a methodology for engineering assessment of risk to municipal infrastructure due to climate change. Proposed methodology includes climate, hydrologic and hydraulic modeling as input for engineering risk assessment. Climate analysis uses Weather Generator as a tool to combine Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with regional historical data to output plausible climate scenarios. The present study focuses on flooding and temperature extremes which are relevant to the region under consideration. Hydrologic analysis uses the climate scenarios as input to the HEC-HMS model to determine streamflows. These streamflows are input to the HEC-RAS and GeoHEC-RAS as part of the hydraulic analysis to generate floodplain maps in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. The engineering risk assessment comprises of both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Water elevations and municipal infrastructure maps are combined using GIS to determine flood inundation levels. These loads are used in combination with infrastructure capacities to evaluate quantitative risk indices. Fuzzy set theory is used to address uncertainties associated with subjective criteria in qualitative analysis. This is accomplished by using membership functions to model ambiguity in various impact data interpretation. These membership functions are created through interviews held with experts in the fields of transportation, water supply and distribution, wastewater management and critical infrastructure management. Membership functions are used in qualitative fuzzy risk assessment. Quantitative and qualitative analysis are combined into risk indices which are spatially represented in GIS as risk maps for each

  4. Managing the Consequences of Climate Change: Can Green Value Creation Mitigate Risks and Create Opportunities in the Financial Sector?

    OpenAIRE

    Moa, Anne

    2014-01-01

    The current economic system is dependent upon constant growth and consumption to function, but the planetary boundaries are finite (UNEP 2013). The resulting climate change is likely to influence companies’ ability to do business in both positive and negative ways. The financial industry could be heavily impacted by the predicted consequences. This study seeks to identify the risks and opportunities that could arise as a result of climate change, and discuss whether the concept of green ...

  5. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  6. Risk-averse economic optimization in the adaptation of river dikes to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, L.; Gelder, van P.H.A.J.M.; Vrijling, J.K.; Maskey, S.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.

    2015-01-01

    To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncerta

  7. Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Hurlbert; J. Gupta

    2016-01-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to clima

  8. Arguing about climate change. Judging the handling of climate risk to future generations by comparison to the general standards of conduct in the case of risk to contemporaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Intergenerational justice requires that climate risks to future generations be handled with the same reasonable care deemed acceptable by society in the case of risks to contemporaries. Such general standards of conduct are laid down in tort law, for example. Consequently, the validity of arguments for or against more stringent climate policy can be judged by comparison to the general standards of conduct applying in the case of risk to contemporaries. That this consistency test is able to disqualify certain arguments in the climate debate is illustrated by a further investigation of the debate on the social discount rate, used in cost-benefit analysis of climate policy

  9. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  10. Climate and climate change and infectious disease risk in Thailand: A spatial study of dengue hemorrhagic fever using GIS and remotely-sensed imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzera, Kristopher

    The scientific community has widely accepted that climate plays a key role in the sustainability and transmission of many infectious diseases. Global climate change can potentially trigger the spread of disease into new regions and increase the intensity of disease in regions where it is endemic. This study explores the association between monthly conditions of climate change to changes in disease risk, emphasizing the potential spread of dengue fever due to climate change in Thailand. This study also develops techniques new to GIS and remote sensing that generate surfaces of daily minimum temperature toward identifying areas at greater transmission risk. Dengue fever expansion due to global warming is a serious concern for Thailand where warming temperatures may increase the size of the habitat of the disease-spreading vector, Aedes aegypti, particularly during cooler months when transmission is limited by environmental conditions. In this study, first, the association between past dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and climate in Thailand is determined. Second, evidence of recent climate change is related to changes in DHF rates. Third, daily minimum temperature is derived from remote sensing toward identifying the spatial and temporal limitations of potential transmission risk. The results indicate that minimum temperature has recently experienced a rapid increase, particularly in the winter months when transmission is low. This is associated with a recent rise in winter DHF cases. As increasing minimum temperatures in these regions are anticipated to continue, we can expect dengue transmission rates to also increase throughout the year.

  11. Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

    OpenAIRE

    Senapathi, Deepa; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Teplitsky, Celine; Jones, Carl G.; Norris, Ken

    2011-01-01

    There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations ...

  12. PERSPECTIVE: Technical fixes and climate change: optimizing for risks and consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasch, Philip J.

    2010-09-01

    Scientists and society in general are becoming increasingly concerned about the risks of climate change from the emission of greenhouse gases (IPCC 2007). Yet emissions continue to increase (Raupach et al 2007), and achieving reductions soon enough to avoid large and undesirable impacts requires a near-revolutionary global transformation of energy and transportation systems (Hoffert et al 1998). The size of the transformation and lack of an effective societal response have motivated some to explore other quite controversial strategies to mitigate some of the planetary consequences of these emissions. These strategies have come to be known as geoengineering: 'the deliberate manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change' (Keith 2000). Concern about society's inability to reduce emissions has driven a resurgence in interest in geoengineering, particularly following the call for more research in Crutzen (2006). Two classes of geoengineering solutions have developed: (1) methods to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere and sequester it in a relatively benign form; and (2) methods that change the energy flux entering or leaving the planet without modifying CO2 concentrations by, for example, changing the planetary albedo. Only the latter methods are considered here. Summaries of many of the methods, scientific questions, and issues of testing and implementation are discussed in Launder and Thompson (2009) and Royal Society (2009). The increased attention indicates that geoengineering is not a panacea and all strategies considered will have risks and consequences (e.g. Robock 2008, Trenberth and Dai 2007). Recent studies involving comprehensive Earth system models can provide insight into subtle interactions between components of the climate system. For example Rasch et al (2009) found that geoengineering by changing boundary clouds will not simultaneously 'correct' global averaged surface temperature, precipitation, and sea ice to present

  13. Potential Impact of Climate Changes on the Inundation Risk Levels in a Dam Break Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudha Yerramilli

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of the study is to generate information for an enhanced land use planning with respect to flood hazards. The study assesses the potential impact of climate change by simulating a dam break scenario in a high intensity rainfall event and evaluates the vulnerability risk in the downstream region by integrating ArcGIS and Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS technologies. In the past century, the evidence of climate changes are observed in terms of increase in high intensity rainfall events. These events are of high concern, as increased inflow rates may increase the probability of a dam failure, leading to higher magnitude flooding events involving multiple consequences. The 100 year historical rainfall data for the central Mississippi region reveals an increased trend in the intensity of rainfall rates after the 1970s. With more than 10% of high hazard dams in the central region, the damage can be far accumulative. The study determines occurrence of the high intensity rainfall event in the past 100 years for central Mississippi and simulates a Ross Barnett Reservoir dam break scenario and evaluates the vulnerability risks due to inundation in the immediate downstream region, which happens to be the State Capital. The results indicate that the inundation due to a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under high intensity rainfall event is comparable to a catastrophic flood event experienced by the region in 1979, which almost equals a 200-year flood magnitude. The results indicate that the extent and depth of flood waters poses a significant destructive threat to the state capital, inundating various infrastructural and transportation networks.

  14. Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.

  15. Particulate Matter and Health Risk under a Changing Climate: Assessment for Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Dias

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impacts of climate-induced changes in air pollution levels and its impacts on population health were investigated. The IPCC scenario (SRES A2 was used to analyse the effects of climate on future PM10 concentrations over Portugal and their impact on short-term population exposure and mortality. The air quality modelling system has been applied with high spatial resolution looking on climate changes at regional scale. To quantify health impacts related to air pollution changes, the WHO methodology for health impact assessment was implemented. The results point to 8% increase of premature mortality attributed to future PM10 levels in Portugal. The pollution episodes with daily average PM10 concentration above the current legislated value (50 μg·m−3 would be responsible for 81% of attributable cases. The absolute number of deaths attributable to PM10 under future climate emphasizes the importance of indirect effects of climate change on human health.

  16. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  17. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  18. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. PMID:26704454

  19. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process.

  20. Climate change and catchment hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Conor

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter catchment hydrology through changes in extremes of flooding and drought. River catchments are complex, dynamic systems and it is important to develop our understanding of how these systems are likely to respond to changes in climate. Work is ongoing in using EC-Earth simulations to further our understanding of how climate change will affect catchment hydrology and flood risk. In Ireland, the importance of this task is emphasised ...

  1. Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Pascal

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities. Results A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Conclusion We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to

  2. Insurance against climate change and flood risk: Insurability and decision processes of insurers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Hung, Jia-Yi

    2016-04-01

    1. Background Major portions of the Asia-Pacific region is facing escalating exposure and vulnerability to climate change and flood-related extremes. This highlights an arduous challenge for public agencies to improve existing risk management strategies. Conventionally, governmental funding was majorly responsible and accountable for disaster loss compensation in the developing countries in Asia, such as Taiwan. This is often criticized as an ineffective and inefficient measure of dealing with flood risk. Flood insurance is one option within the toolkit of risk-sharing arrangement and adaptation strategy to flood risk. However, there are numerous potential barriers for insurance companies to cover flood damage, which would cause the flood risk is regarded as uninsurable. This study thus aims to examine attitudes within the insurers about the viability of flood insurance, the decision-making processes of pricing flood insurance and their determinants, as well as to examine potential solutions to encourage flood insurance. 2. Methods and data Using expected-utility theory, an insurance agent-based decision-making model was developed to examine the insurers' attitudes towards the insurability of flood risk, and to scrutinize the factors that influence their decisions on flood insurance premium-setting. This model particularly focuses on how insurers price insurance when they face either uncertainty or ambiguity about the probability and loss of a particular flood event occurring. This study considers the factors that are expected to affect insures' decisions on underwriting and pricing insurance are their risk perception, attitudes towards flood insurance, governmental measures (e.g., land-use planning, building codes, risk communication), expected probabilities and losses of devastating flooding events, as well as insurance companies' attributes. To elicit insurers' utilities about premium-setting for insurance coverage, the 'certainty equivalent,' 'probability

  3. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  4. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  5. Public Perceptions of Climate Change as a Human Health Risk: Surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Akerlof

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed. About a third or more of people in the United States and Canada saw themselves (United States, 32%; Canada, 67%, their family (United States, 35%; Canada, 46%, and people in their community (United States, 39%; Canada, 76% as being vulnerable to at least moderate harm from climate change. About one third of Maltese (31% said they were most concerned about the risk to themselves and their families. Many Canadians said that the elderly (45% and children (33% are at heightened risk of harm, while Americans were more likely to see people in developing countries as being at risk than people in their own nation. When prompted, large numbers of Canadians and Maltese said that climate change can cause respiratory problems (78–91%, heat-related problems (75–84%, cancer (61–90%, and infectious diseases (49–62%. Canadians also named sunburn (79% and injuries from extreme weather events (73%, and Maltese cited allergies (84%. However, climate change appears to lack salience as a health issue in all three countries: relatively few people answered open-ended questions in a manner that indicated clear top-of-mind associations between climate change and human health risks. We recommend mounting public health communication initiatives that increase the

  6. Public perceptions of climate change as a human health risk: surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, Karen; Debono, Roberto; Berry, Peter; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Clarke, Kaila-Lea; Rogaeva, Anastasia; Nisbet, Matthew C; Weathers, Melinda R; Maibach, Edward W

    2010-06-01

    We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed. About a third or more of people in the United States and Canada saw themselves (United States, 32%; Canada, 67%), their family (United States, 35%; Canada, 46%), and people in their community (United States, 39%; Canada, 76%) as being vulnerable to at least moderate harm from climate change. About one third of Maltese (31%) said they were most concerned about the risk to themselves and their families. Many Canadians said that the elderly (45%) and children (33%) are at heightened risk of harm, while Americans were more likely to see people in developing countries as being at risk than people in their own nation. When prompted, large numbers of Canadians and Maltese said that climate change can cause respiratory problems (78-91%), heat-related problems (75-84%), cancer (61-90%), and infectious diseases (49-62%). Canadians also named sunburn (79%) and injuries from extreme weather events (73%), and Maltese cited allergies (84%). However, climate change appears to lack salience as a health issue in all three countries: relatively few people answered open-ended questions in a manner that indicated clear top-of-mind associations between climate change and human health risks. We recommend mounting public health communication initiatives that increase the salience of the

  7. From Anti-Pollution to Climate Change Risk Movement: Reshaping Civic Epistemology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuei Tien Chou

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available From the perspective of reflexive governance, this study probes into the transformative capacity and roles of government and civil society, and aims to determine how the authoritative developmental neo-liberalism state was challenged by civil society in democratization from the end of the 1980s, when it encountered a crisis of governance legitimacy. By analyzing the anti-petrochemical movement of the recent two decades, this paper recognizes the important historic line, and proposes that without innovative governance, a regime of expert politics with hidden and delayed risk will result in higher degrees of mistrust and confrontational positions by the public. In contrast to the government, local and civil societies are growing through the anti-pollution appeals of simple group protests into systematic and robust civic knowledge and strategic action. By administrative, legislative, judicial, and risk statement paths, such strategic mobilizations break through authoritative expert politics and reshape new civic epistemology. The process of reflexive governance is extremely radical. When two parties cannot commit to dealing with a high degree of mistrust, they will not be able to manage the more dramatic threat of climate change. Fundamentally speaking, a robust civil society will be an important driving power competing with government, in terms of constructing innovative governance.

  8. Managing drought risk in a changing climate: The role of national drought policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald A. Wilhite

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available There is increasing concern worldwide about the ineffectiveness of current drought management practices that are largely based on crisis management. These practices are reactive and, therefore, only treat the symptoms (impacts of drought rather than the underlying causes for the vulnerabilities associated with impacts. Through the adoption of national drought policies that are focused on risk reduction and complemented by drought mitigation or preparedness plans at various levels of government, the coping capacity of nations to manage droughts can be improved. The time for adopting an approach that emphasizes drought risk reduction is now, given the spiraling impacts of droughts in an ever-increasing number of sectors and the current and projected trends for the increased frequency, severity and duration of drought events in association with a changing climate. This paper discusses the underlying concepts of drought, the principles and objectives of national drought policies and a drought planning process that has been effective in the preparation of drought mitigation plans.

  9. Shared Security through U.S./Chinese Cooperation on Climate Change Security and Risk Reduction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Marcus; D.King; John; O.Rankin

    2014-01-01

    <正>In concluding remarks of the June 2013U.S.-Chinese Summit,President Barak Obama declared that neither China nor the U.S.can deal with the challenge of climate change by itself.These statements came at a time when each leader was grappling with droughts,caused or exacerbated by climate change.Reservoirs,rainfall totals and snowpack on the mountaintops remain critically low in

  10. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  11. Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, J. van; Beer, R.J. van; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Roemer, M.G.M. [TNO Inst. of Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Koennen, G.P. [KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., de Bilt (Netherlands); Oerlemans, J. [Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Meteorological and Atmospheric Research

    1995-12-31

    In this presentation part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. In the concept of climate change as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect it is generally assumed that the radiative forcings from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will result in a proportional or quasilinear global warming. Though correlations of this kind are known from palaeoclimate research, the variability of the climate seems to prevent the direct proof of a causal relation between recent greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature observations. In order to resolve the issue the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs), though still inadequate at present, is indispensable. Around the world some 10 leading GCMs exist which have been the subject of evaluation and intercomparison in a number of studies. Their results are regularly assessed in the IPCC process. A discussion on their performance in simulating present or past climates and the causes of their weak points shows that the depiction of clouds is a major weakness of GCMs. A second element which is virtually absent in GCMs are the feedbacks from natural biogeochemical cycles. These cycles are influenced by man in a number of ways. GCMs have a limited performance in simulating regional effects on climate. Moreover, albedo instability, in part due to its interaction with cloudiness, is only roughly represented. Apparently, not all relevant processes have been included in the GCMs. That situation constitutes a risk, since it cannot be ruled out that a missing process could cause or trigger a non-linear climate change. In the study non-linear climate change is connected with those processes which could provide feedbacks with a risk for non-monotonous or discontinuous behaviour of the climate system, or which are unpredictable or could cause rapid transitions

  12. RISK HABITAT OF THE MONARCH BUTTERFLY (Danaus plexippus BY CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Araceli Islas-Báez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The change in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change is altering the ecosystem functioning, so it is important to conduct studies that contribute to the knowledge of species distribution under climate change scenarios, to locate areas vulnerable to the phenomenon. Potential changes were estimated area under climate change scenarios, obtained by downscaling and Regional Assembly Model (RAM for the winter habitat of the Monarch Butterfly (MM in the nucleus zone of the Biosphere Reserve of the Monarch Butterfly area. According to the study, the overwintering habitat of the MM disappears in the A2 and B2 scenarios downscaling 2030. With the RAM, reducing the area of habitat MM 2030 is estimated at 37.59 % and in 2050 will be 49.13 %. Therefore, the downscaling model indicates that MM habitat disappears, and the RAM shows that there will be significant losses of habitat MM.

  13. Identification and analysis of uncertainty in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in South and Southeast Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keur, van der Peter; Bers, van Caroline; Henriksen, Hans Jørgen; Nibanupudi, Hari Krishna; Yadav, Shobha; Wijaya, Rina; Subiyono, Andreas; Mukerjee, Nandan; Hausmann, Hans Jakob; Hare, Matt; Scheltinga, van Catharien Terwisscha; Pearn, Gregory; Jaspers, Fons

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the mainstreaming of uncertainty in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) using as a case South and Southeast Asia, a region highly vulnerable to a wide range of natural disasters. Improvements in the implementation of DRR and CCA at the community

  14. Assessing Ecological Flow Needs and Risks for Springs and Baseflow Streams With Growth and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, A. E.; Stevens, L. E.

    2008-12-01

    Ecological flow needs assessments are beginning to become an important part of regulated river management, but are more challenging for unregulated rivers. Water needs for ecosystems are greater than just consumptive use by riparian and aquatic vegetation and include the magnitude, frequency, duration and timing of flows and the depth and annual fluctuations of groundwater levels of baseflow supported streams. An ecological flow needs assessment was adapted and applied to an unregulated, baseflow dependent river in the arid to semi-arid Southwestern U.S. A separate process was developed to determine groundwater sources potentially at risk from climate, land management, or groundwater use changes in a large regional groundwater basin in the same semi-arid region. In 2007 and 2008, workshops with ecological, cultural, and physical experts from agencies, universities, tribes, and other organizations were convened. Flow-ecology response functions were developed with either conceptual or actual information for a baseflow dependent river, and scoring systems were developed to assign values to categories of risks to groundwater sources in a large groundwater basin. A reduction of baseflow to the river was predicted to lead to a decline in cottonwood and willow tree abundance, decreases in riparian forest diversity, and increases in non-native tree species, such as tamarisk. These types of forest vegetation changes would likely cause reductions or loss of some bird species. Loss of riffle habitat through declines in groundwater discharge and the associated river levels would likely lead to declines in native fish and amphibian species. A research agenda was developed to develop techniques to monitor, assess and hopefully better manage the aquifers supporting the baseflow dependent river to prevent potential threshold responses of the ecosystems. The scoring system for categories of risk was applied to four systems (aquifers, springs, standing water bodies, and streams) in

  15. Development of a risk database for the establishment of invasive mosquito species under impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

    2016-04-01

    Climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the main climatic parameters that are related to the suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS). In this work the future potentiality of IMS spread and establishment over Greece and Italy is assessed following four steps. In the first step current Spatial Risk Databases for the establishment of IMS over Greece and Italy are developed using the meteorological parameters from the ECA&D project. In the second step changes in the climatic parameters in 2050's are estimated using the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. In the third step, the mesoscale meteorological model WRF is used, to simulate the changes in the meteorological fields caused by climate change in a finer grid size using dynamical regional downscaling. Finally, in the fourth step the estimated changes in the meteorological parameters from step three are combined with the observation data from step one in order to estimate the future level of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product is spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

  16. Climate Change Influences Potential Distribution of Infected Aedes aegypti Co-Occurrence with Dengue Epidemics Risk Areas in Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement N.; Kimera, Sharadhuli I.; Stanley, Grades; Misinzo, Gerald; Mboera, Leonard E. G.

    2016-01-01

    Background Dengue is the second most important vector-borne disease of humans globally after malaria. Incidence of dengue infections has dramatically increased recently, potentially due to changing climate. Climate projections models predict increases in average annual temperature, precipitation and extreme events in the future. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of changing climate on distribution of dengue vectors in relation to epidemic risk areas in Tanzania. Methods/Findings We used ecological niche models that incorporated presence-only infected Aedes aegypti data co-occurrence with dengue virus to estimate potential distribution of epidemic risk areas. Model input data on infected Ae. aegypti was collected during the May to June 2014 epidemic in Dar es Salaam. Bioclimatic predictors for current and future projections were also used as model inputs. Model predictions indicated that habitat suitability for infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue virus in current scenarios is highly localized in the coastal areas, including Dar es Salaam, Pwani, Morogoro, Tanga and Zanzibar. Models indicate that areas of Kigoma, Ruvuma, Lindi, and those around Lake Victoria are also at risk. Projecting to 2020, we show that risk emerges in Mara, Arusha, Kagera and Manyara regions, but disappears in parts of Morogoro, Ruvuma and near Lake Nyasa. In 2050 climate scenario, the predicted habitat suitability of infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue shifted towards the central and north-eastern parts with intensification in areas around all major lakes. Generally, model findings indicated that the coastal regions would remain at high risk for dengue epidemic through 2050. Conclusion/Significance Models incorporating climate change scenarios to predict emerging risk areas for dengue epidemics in Tanzania show that the anticipated risk is immense and results help guiding public health policy decisions on surveillance and control of dengue epidemics. A

  17. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  18. Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaeffer, M.; Kram, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Hare, W.L.

    2008-01-01

    One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global war

  19. Addressing Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osman Elasha, B. M. E.

    2015-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) demonstrates that an extreme event which used to occur infrequently and perceived today as abnormal will be tomorrow's 'normal' weather. For example the drought events in the African Sahel which once came every decade could now come every couple of years bringing a new challenge and leading to severe disturbances and rapid environmental changes. The report identified and analyzed the problems associated with extreme climatic events, and examined how human responses to these events and the consequent disasters could contribute to adaptation objectives, and how adaptation to climate change could become better integrated with Disasters Risk Management (DRM) practices. Moreover, a number of studies explored the linkages and interactions between disasters and development and clearly demonstrates how the exposure to extremes and vulnerability to climate change can hinder development efforts, emphasizing the need for much smarter development and economic policies that consider managing disaster risk and implement adaptation measures as main components of sustainable development. The proposed presentation will provide an overview of findings from IPCC reports and other studies and will draw on existing experiences and lessons learned to explore the linkages between disaster risk management, adaptation and economic development in Africa. It will also shed light on some of the regional and global interventions which aim at mitigating the impacts of extremes and disasters in African countries characterized by high exposure & vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. It concludes by highlighting the need for broader cooperation and partnership between development partners and agencies working on disaster risk management & climate change adaptation including the private sector, bilateral and multilateral agencies in order to ensure sustainable development.

  20. Modeling vector-borne disease risk in migratory animals under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Richard J; Brown, Leone M; Altizer, Sonia

    2016-08-01

    Recent theory suggests that animals that migrate to breed at higher latitudes may benefit from reduced pressure from natural enemies, including pathogens ("migratory escape"), and that migration itself weeds out infected individuals and lowers infection prevalence ("migratory culling"). The distribution and activity period of arthropod disease vectors in temperate regions is expected to respond rapidly to climate change, which could reduce the potential for migratory escape. However, climate change could have the opposite effect of reducing transmission if differential responses in the phenology and distribution of migrants and disease vectors reduce their overlap in space and time. Here we outline a simple modeling framework for exploring the influence of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics in a migratory host. We investigate two scenarios under which pathogen transmission dynamics might be mediated by climate change: (1) vectors respond more rapidly than migrants to advancing phenology at temperate breeding sites, causing peak susceptible host density and vector emergence to diverge ("migratory mismatch") and (2) reduced migratory propensity allows increased nonbreeding survival of infected hosts and larger breeding-site epidemics (loss of migratory culling, here referred to as "sedentary amplification"). Our results highlight the need for continued surveillance of climate-induced changes to migratory behavior and vector activity to predict pathogen prevalence and its impacts on migratory animals. PMID:27252225

  1. Rising temperatures, rising tensions : climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, O.; Crawford, A.

    2009-07-01

    Scientific evidence suggests that climate change will have significant impacts to food security, disease prevalence, population distribution, and water availability in the Middle East. This paper discussed the likelihood of increased conflict as a result of climatic change in Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and the occupied Palestinian territory. A range of consultations and interviews with experts were analyzed in order to determine security threats in the region over the next 40 years. The study showed that the legacy of conflict in the region will hamper its ability to adapt to climate change. Climate change is likely to increase competition for water resources, intensify food shortages, and hinder economic growth. Climate change may also lead to forced migration and tensions with existing refugee populations and increase the militarization of natural resources. Strategies to pursue sustainable development in the Levant region included fostering a culture of conservation, addressing core tensions related to agriculture and water development, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regional cooperation is needed to develop effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction plans. 68 refs., 3 tabs., 22 figs.

  2. Rising temperatures, rising tensions : climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scientific evidence suggests that climate change will have significant impacts to food security, disease prevalence, population distribution, and water availability in the Middle East. This paper discussed the likelihood of increased conflict as a result of climatic change in Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and the occupied Palestinian territory. A range of consultations and interviews with experts were analyzed in order to determine security threats in the region over the next 40 years. The study showed that the legacy of conflict in the region will hamper its ability to adapt to climate change. Climate change is likely to increase competition for water resources, intensify food shortages, and hinder economic growth. Climate change may also lead to forced migration and tensions with existing refugee populations and increase the militarization of natural resources. Strategies to pursue sustainable development in the Levant region included fostering a culture of conservation, addressing core tensions related to agriculture and water development, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regional cooperation is needed to develop effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction plans. 68 refs., 3 tabs., 22 figs.

  3. Modeling vector-borne disease risk in migratory animals under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Richard J; Brown, Leone M; Altizer, Sonia

    2016-08-01

    Recent theory suggests that animals that migrate to breed at higher latitudes may benefit from reduced pressure from natural enemies, including pathogens ("migratory escape"), and that migration itself weeds out infected individuals and lowers infection prevalence ("migratory culling"). The distribution and activity period of arthropod disease vectors in temperate regions is expected to respond rapidly to climate change, which could reduce the potential for migratory escape. However, climate change could have the opposite effect of reducing transmission if differential responses in the phenology and distribution of migrants and disease vectors reduce their overlap in space and time. Here we outline a simple modeling framework for exploring the influence of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics in a migratory host. We investigate two scenarios under which pathogen transmission dynamics might be mediated by climate change: (1) vectors respond more rapidly than migrants to advancing phenology at temperate breeding sites, causing peak susceptible host density and vector emergence to diverge ("migratory mismatch") and (2) reduced migratory propensity allows increased nonbreeding survival of infected hosts and larger breeding-site epidemics (loss of migratory culling, here referred to as "sedentary amplification"). Our results highlight the need for continued surveillance of climate-induced changes to migratory behavior and vector activity to predict pathogen prevalence and its impacts on migratory animals.

  4. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  5. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C.D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, M.; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

    2010-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

  6. Farmers’ Risk Perception towards Climate Change: A Case of the GAP-Şanlıurfa Region, Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Mustafa Hakki Aydogdu; Kasim Yenigün

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to evaluate farmers’ risk perception towards climate change in dry farming areas of the Şanlıurfa province in Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) Region, Turkey, and their willingness to pay for adaptation practices and explore the potential factors that contribute to the understanding of climate change. The main material of this research comes from a sample of 466 farmers among 32,809 in Şanlıurfa who were chosen via a simple random sampling method. Sampling w...

  7. Climate change and the insurance industry. The cost of increased risk and the impetus for action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A convincing economic argument for taking action to prevent or ameliorate climate change has not developed because of both uncertainty about the degree of change and its timing. Recent costly weather-related catastrophes with consequent negative impacts on the insurance industry has made the insurance industry a potential advocate for slowing what has been identified as a causal factor in climate change: emissions of greenhouse gases. However, rising costs of claims, without a longer-term trend of such catastrophic losses, will make it difficult to present a strong case for taking costly economic action. Using the Black Scholes Option Pricing Model, it is shown that increasing levels of climate variability as embedded in the anticipated variability of damage to insured assets will have an immediate economic cost that could serve to bolster the argument for more immediate action. That cost is shown to be economically justified higher insurance premiums

  8. Climate change and agricultural risk management: the role of the family-farm characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaranta, G.; Salvia, R.

    2009-04-01

    During recent years, water-related anomalies (drought, water scarcity, flood) have become a common occurrence in most areas and especially in the arid and semiarid regions of Mediterranean areas. There are evidences of increasing inter-annual variability, as increasing deviation from the long-term mean. This could be the main reason for the increasing incidence of drought, rather than any decline in long-term rainfall, also if a decrease of total amount of water is expected by the IPCC scenarios. Another reason for increasing drought and water scarcity conditions is growing demand for water needed by different productive sectors. These anomalies greatly increase the uncertainties of the agricultural sector affecting performance and management and leading to substantial augment in agricultural risk and destabilization of farm incomes. Agricultural adaptation to drought and climate change at the farm level as well as changes in activity level strongly depend on the technological potential (different varieties of crops, irrigation technologies); soil, water, and biological response; and the capability of farmers to detect changes and undertake any necessary actions as result of perception of the problem and capacity/willingness to react. Farm characteristics (size, technological level and other characteristics) and the social economic features of the family running those farms (number of components, age, education level, etc) act as important variables influencing, at farm level, the capacity and rate of adaptation/mitigation options implementation. The ability or inability to avoid/react from a risk could be interpreted as a social resilience of an area, deriving mainly from its socio-demographic features. The shift from a paradigm mainly focuses upon the physical agents in the natural or human-modified environment, which cause a threat to society, to a new approach where the social, economical and political conditions are overcoming and gaining importance in the

  9. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  10. A benchmarking framework to evaluate business climate change risks: A practical tool suitable for investors decision-making process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaos Demertzidis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental concern for the investor community is to identify techniques which would allow them to evaluate and highlight the most probable financial risks that could affect the value of their asset portfolio. Traditional techniques primarily focus on estimating certain conventional social-economic factors and many fail to cover an array of climate change risks. A limited number of institutional documents present, to a somewhat limited extent, some general-defined types of business climate change risks, which are deemed most likely to influence the value of an investors’ portfolio. However, it is crucial that stakeholders of businesses and scholars consider a wider range of information so as to assist investors in their decision making. This paper aims at establishing a new framework to operationalize and quantify an array of business climate change risks to provide more comprehensive and tangible information on non-traditional risks. This framework relies on the benchmarking – scoring systems and Global Reporting Initiative (GRI guidelines, and is applied to various Greek businesses that are certified by Environmental Management and Audit Scheme (EMAS.

  11. Climate and ozone change effects on ultraviolet radiation and risks (COEUR). Using and validating earth observation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Dijk, A; Den Outer, P.N.; Slaper, H.

    2008-06-15

    The AMOUR2.0 (Assessment Model for Ultraviolet radiation and Risks) model is presented. With this model it is possible to relate ozone depletion scenarios to (changes in) skin cancer incidence. The estimation of UV maps is integrated in the model. The satellite-based method to estimate UV maps is validated for EPTOMS (Earth Probe - Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) data against ground measurements for 17 locations in Europe. For most ground stations the estimates for the yeardose agree within 5%. Deviations are related to high ground albedo. A suggestion has been made for improvement of the albedo-correction. The AMOUR2.0 UV estimate was found to correspond better with ground measurements than the models from NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration in the USA), TEMIS (Tropospheric Emission Monitoring Internet Service of the European Space Agency ESA) and FMI (Finnish Meteorological Institute). The EPTOMS-UV product and the FMI model overestimate the UV dose. The TEMIS model has a good clear-sky correspondence with ground measurement, but overestimates UV in clouded situations. Satellite measurements of ozone and historic chlorine level have been used to make global estimates for future ozone levels for a collection of emission scenarios for ozone depleting substances. Analysis of the 'best guess' scenario, shows that the minimum in ozone level will be reached within 15 years from now. In 2050 the UV dose for Europe will to a large extent have returned to the values observed in 1980 if there is no climate-change driven alteration in cloud patterns. Future incidence maps up to the year 2100 are estimated with the dose-effect relation presented in an earlier study. This is done for three UV related types of skin-cancer: Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC), Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCC) and Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma (CMM). For a stationary population, global incidences of BCC and CMM are expected to peak around the year 2065 and for SCC around 2040.

  12. A Dynamic Flood Inundation Model Framework to Assess Coastal Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Irish, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). A novel framework was developed to generate a suite of physics-based storm surge models that include projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios: shoreline erosion/accretion, dune morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. First, the storm surge inundation model was extensively validated for present day conditions with respect to astronomic tides and hindcasts of Hurricane Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012). The model was then modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape for four climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (B1, B2, A1B, and A2), and each climate change scenario was linked to a sea level rise of 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 1.2 m, and 2.0 m. The adapted model was then used to simulate hurricane storm surge conditions for each climate scenario using a variety of tropical cyclones as the forcing mechanism. The collection of results shows the intensification of inundation area and the vulnerability of the coast to potential future climate conditions. The methodology developed herein to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme flooding in the future. Note: The main theme behind this work is to appear in a future Earth's Future publication. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Parris, A., et al. (2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate AssessmentRep., 37 pp. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, M. V. Bilskie, and S. C. Medeiros

  13. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries.

  14. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. PMID:26318682

  15. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  16. Climate change, variability and extreme events : risk assessment and management strategies in a Peach cultivated area in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess

  17. Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin; Mazdiyasni, Omid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-12-01

    Global warming and the associated rise in extreme temperatures substantially increase the chance of concurrent droughts and heat waves. The 2014 California drought is an archetype of an event characterized by not only low precipitation but also extreme high temperatures. From the raging wildfires, to record low storage levels and snowpack conditions, the impacts of this event can be felt throughout California. Wintertime water shortages worry decision-makers the most because it is the season to build up water supplies for the rest of the year. Here we show that the traditional univariate risk assessment methods based on precipitation condition may substantially underestimate the risk of extreme events such as the 2014 California drought because of ignoring the effects of temperature. We argue that a multivariate viewpoint is necessary for assessing risk of extreme events, especially in a warming climate. This study discusses a methodology for assessing the risk of concurrent extremes such as droughts and extreme temperatures.

  18. Adaptation to Climate Change in Risk and Vulnerability Analysis on a Municipal Level, a basis for further work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (RVA) at local authority level in Sweden is to increase the capacity of local authorities to handle crises and to reduce vulnerability in the community. RVA processes could be an appropriate starting-point for discussions on how the community is influenced by climate change and how its effects could be reduced using various adjustment measures. In the report we present four methods: ROSA, MVA, IBERO and the Car Dun AB method. These have all been developed to support Swedish local authority RVA processes. We also present five international frameworks that have been developed by the organisations UNDP, USAID, UKCIP, C-CIARN and CSIRO to help decision-makers and stakeholders to adapt to climate change. Together, these descriptions form a foundation for continuing the work being done within the project Climatools, in which tools are being produced to be used by local authorities in adapting to climate change. In the report, we also discuss the concepts 'risk', 'vulnerability' and 'adaptation' and how analysis of adaptation to climate change has changed in recent years

  19. Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce

  20. Trading-off tolerable risk with climate change adaptation costs in water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgomeo, Edoardo; Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad; Hall, Jim W.; O'Sullivan, Michael J.; Watson, Tim

    2016-02-01

    Choosing secure water resource management plans inevitably requires trade-offs between risks (for a variety of stakeholders), costs, and other impacts. We have previously argued that water resources planning should focus upon metrics of risk of water restrictions, accompanied by extensive simulation and scenario-based exploration of uncertainty. However, the results of optimization subject to risk constraints can be sensitive to the specification of tolerable risk, which may not be precisely or consistently defined by different stakeholders. In this paper, we recast the water resources planning problem as a multiobjective optimization problem to identify least cost schemes that satisfy a set of criteria for tolerable risk, where tolerable risk is defined in terms of the frequency of water use restrictions of different levels of severity. Our proposed method links a very large ensemble of climate model projections to a water resource system model and a multiobjective optimization algorithm to identify a Pareto optimal set of water resource management plans across a 25 years planning period. In a case study application to the London water supply system, we identify water resources management plans that, for a given financial cost, maximize performance with respect to one or more probabilistic criteria. This illustrates trade-offs between financial costs of plans and risk, and between risk criteria for four different severities of water use restrictions. Graphical representation of alternative sequences of investments in the Pareto set helps to identify water management options for which there is a robust case for including them in the plan.

  1. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  2. The Future of Climate Change Education and Communication: Preparing Our Posterity for Risks and Opportunity? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change will have impacts on all aspects of life. As such it is a topic that is interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary and thus requires input from a professionally diverse group of experts to be addressed effectively. This represents the next step in an evolution of how geoscientists see their work and their responsibility communicate and collaborate with other professionals to enable their findings and understanding of the Earth system to benefit society. In the late 1970's geoscience research extended beyond the traditional disciplinary perspectives to investigate the interactions of the components of the Earth system and the impacts of those interactions. Geoscience research became interdisciplinary. In the last 10 years as the reality of climate change has become more apparent,it is clear that the conversation needs to extend well beyond the geosciences to include for example agriculture, economics, psychology, architecture, urban planning, engineering and the social sciences. Climate change education and communication needs to become both interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary. This presentation will discuss the obstacles that need to be overcome to achieve interdisciplinary and transdiciplinary ways of addressing the problems and opportunities resulting from climate change, the efforts that are underway to help develop a common language and shared understanding to enable transdisciplinary solutions to societal issues in the future.

  3. Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Peterson, Douglas P.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2013-01-01

    Impending changes in climate will interact with other stressors to threaten aquatic ecosystems and their biota. Native Colorado River cutthroat trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) are now relegated to 309 isolated high-elevation (>1700 m) headwater stream fragments in the Upper Colorado River Basin, owing to past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss. Predicted changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and resulting changes in stochastic physical disturbances (i.e., wildfire, debris flow, and channel drying and freezing) could further threaten the remaining CRCT populations. We developed an empirical model to predict stream temperatures at the fragment scale from downscaled climate projections along with geomorphic and landscape variables. We coupled these spatially explicit predictions of stream temperature with a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates stochastic risks from fragmentation to project persistence of CRCT populations across the upper Colorado River basin to 2040 and 2080. Overall, none of the populations are at risk from acute mortality resulting from high temperatures during the warmest summer period. In contrast, only 37% of populations have a greater than or equal to 90% chance of persistence for 70 years (similar to the typical benchmark for conservation), primarily owing to fragmentation. Populations in short stream fragments buffered from the potential consequences of warming, but at risk of extirpation from stochastic events. The greatest conservation need is for management to increase fragment lengths to forestall these risks

  4. Network Connectedness, Sense of Community, and Risk Perception of Climate Change Professionals in the Pacific Islands Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlew, L. K.; Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

    2013-12-01

    The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) Program conducted social network analysis research of climate change professionals (broadly defined) who are from or work in Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region. This study is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) to address an identified need for a resource that quantifies the region's collaborative network of climate change professionals, and that supports the further development of cross-regional and inter-sectoral collaborations for future research and adaptation activities. A survey was distributed to nearly 1,200 people who are from and/or work in climate change related fields in the region. The Part One Survey questions (not confidential) created a preferential attachment network by listing major players in Hawaii and the USAPI, with additional open fields to identify important contacts in the greater professional network. Participants (n=340) identified 975 network contacts and frequency of communications (weekly, monthly, seasonally, yearly, at least once ever). Part Two Survey questions (confidential, n=302) explored climate change risk perceptions, Psychological Sense of Community (PSOC), sense of control over climate change impacts, sense of responsibility to act, policy beliefs and preferences regarding climate change actions, concern and optimism scales about specific impacts, and demographic information. Graphical representations of the professional network are being developed for release in September 2013 as a free online tool to promote and assist collaboration building among climate professionals in the region. The graphs are partitioned according to network 'hubs' (high centrality), participant location, and profession to clearly identify network strengths and opportunities for future collaborations across spatial and professional boundaries. For additional

  5. Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods as a consequence of climate change in the Himalayan region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somana Riaz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The greater Himalayan Mountains host the largest snow covered area outside the polar regions and serves as the source for some of the major fluvial systems of the world. The region acts as the lifeline for approximately 10% of the world’s population. The terrain is geologically active, highly susceptible to climate change processes and plays a significant role in global hydro-meteorological cycles and biodiversity. With the increasing impacts of climate change to the glaciers and ice caps during the past few decades, people living in the Himalayas have become vulnerable to a higher risk of floods, avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs. This study reviewed the work carried out by earlier researchers to understand the history and science of GLOFs and their potential risk to the communities in the Himalayanbelt, particularly in Pakistan.

  6. US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). (letter)

  7. Effect of Climate Change on Invasion Risk of Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica Ferussac, 1821: Achatinidae in India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roshmi Rekha Sarma

    Full Text Available The Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica is considered to be one the world's 100 worst invasive alien species. The snail has an impact on native biodiversity, and on agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, it is known to feed on more than fifty species of native plants and agricultural crops and also outcompetes the native snails. It was introduced into India in 1847 and since then it has spread all across the country. In this paper, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM to assess the distribution pattern of Giant African Snail (GAS under different climate change scenarios. The niche modeling results indicate that under the current climate scenario, Eastern India, peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are at high risk of invasion. The three different future climate scenarios show that there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of invasion prone areas. However, certain currently invaded areas will be more prone to invasion in the future. These regions include parts of Bihar, Southern Karnataka, parts of Gujarat and Assam. The Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands are highly vulnerable to invasion under changed climate. The Central Indian region is at low risk due to high temperature and low rainfall. An understanding of the invasion pattern can help in better management of this invasive species and also in formulating policies for its control.

  8. Effect of Climate Change on Invasion Risk of Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica Férussac, 1821: Achatinidae) in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarma, Roshmi Rekha; Munsi, Madhushree; Ananthram, Aravind Neelavara

    2015-01-01

    The Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica) is considered to be one the world's 100 worst invasive alien species. The snail has an impact on native biodiversity, and on agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, it is known to feed on more than fifty species of native plants and agricultural crops and also outcompetes the native snails. It was introduced into India in 1847 and since then it has spread all across the country. In this paper, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the distribution pattern of Giant African Snail (GAS) under different climate change scenarios. The niche modeling results indicate that under the current climate scenario, Eastern India, peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are at high risk of invasion. The three different future climate scenarios show that there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of invasion prone areas. However, certain currently invaded areas will be more prone to invasion in the future. These regions include parts of Bihar, Southern Karnataka, parts of Gujarat and Assam. The Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands are highly vulnerable to invasion under changed climate. The Central Indian region is at low risk due to high temperature and low rainfall. An understanding of the invasion pattern can help in better management of this invasive species and also in formulating policies for its control.

  9. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  10. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  11. Effect of Climate Change Projections on Forest Fire Behavior and Values-at-Risk in Southwestern Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostas Kalabokidis

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has the potential to influence many aspects of wildfire behavior and risk. During the last decade, Greece has experienced large-scale wildfire phenomena with unprecedented fire behavior and impacts. In this study, thousands of wildfire events were simulated with the Minimum Travel Time (MTT fire growth algorithm (called Randig and resulted in spatial data that describe conditional burn probabilities, potential fire spread and intensity in Messinia, Greece. Present (1961–1990 and future (2071–2100 climate projections were derived from simulations of the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2, under the SRES A1B emission scenario. Data regarding fuel moisture content, wind speed and direction were modified for the different projection time periods to be used as inputs in Randig. Results were used to assess the vulnerability changes for certain values-at-risk of the natural and human-made environment. Differences in wildfire risk were calculated and results revealed that larger wildfires that resist initial control are to be expected in the future, with higher conditional burn probabilities and intensities for extensive parts of the study area. The degree of change in the modeled Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index for the two time periods also revealed an increasing trend in frequencies of higher values for the future.

  12. A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    2012-01-01

    This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment of the climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing on residential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on (1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation by the super-high resolution atmospheric general circulation model...... are that in the future (2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme wind events (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s) are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annual maximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected number of damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming that the profile...

  13. Precipitation trends over the Korean peninsula: typhoon-induced changes and a typology for characterizing climate-related risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Typhoons originating in the west Pacific are major contributors to climate-related risk over the Korean peninsula. The current perspective regarding improved characterization of climatic risk and the projected increases in the intensity, frequency, duration, and power dissipation of typhoons during the 21st century in the western North Pacific region motivated a reappraisal of historical trends in precipitation. In this study, trends in the magnitude and frequency of seasonal precipitation in the five major river basins in Korea are analyzed on the basis of a separation analysis, with recognition of moisture sources (typhoon and non-typhoon). Over the 1966-2007 period, typhoons accounted for 21-26% of seasonal precipitation, with the largest values in the Nakdong River Basin. Typhoon-related precipitation events have increased significantly over portions of Han, Nakdong, and Geum River Basins. Alongside broad patterns toward increases in the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, distinct patterns of trends in the upper and lower quartiles (corresponding to changes in extreme events) are evident. A trend typology-spatially resolved characterization of the combination of shifts in the upper and lower tails of the precipitation distribution-shows that a number of sub-basins have undergone significant changes in one or both of the tails of the precipitation distribution. This broader characterization of trends illuminates the relative role of causal climatic factors and an identification of 'hot spots' likely to experience high exposure to typhoon-related climatic extremes in the future.

  14. Precipitation trends over the Korean peninsula: typhoon-induced changes and a typology for characterizing climate-related risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jong-Suk [School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People' s Republic of China (China); Jain, Shaleen, E-mail: shaleen.jain@maine.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469-5711 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Typhoons originating in the west Pacific are major contributors to climate-related risk over the Korean peninsula. The current perspective regarding improved characterization of climatic risk and the projected increases in the intensity, frequency, duration, and power dissipation of typhoons during the 21st century in the western North Pacific region motivated a reappraisal of historical trends in precipitation. In this study, trends in the magnitude and frequency of seasonal precipitation in the five major river basins in Korea are analyzed on the basis of a separation analysis, with recognition of moisture sources (typhoon and non-typhoon). Over the 1966-2007 period, typhoons accounted for 21-26% of seasonal precipitation, with the largest values in the Nakdong River Basin. Typhoon-related precipitation events have increased significantly over portions of Han, Nakdong, and Geum River Basins. Alongside broad patterns toward increases in the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, distinct patterns of trends in the upper and lower quartiles (corresponding to changes in extreme events) are evident. A trend typology-spatially resolved characterization of the combination of shifts in the upper and lower tails of the precipitation distribution-shows that a number of sub-basins have undergone significant changes in one or both of the tails of the precipitation distribution. This broader characterization of trends illuminates the relative role of causal climatic factors and an identification of 'hot spots' likely to experience high exposure to typhoon-related climatic extremes in the future.

  15. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  16. Climate change and the ethics of discounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. Davidson

    2015-01-01

    Climate policy-making requires a balancing, however rudimentary, of the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions against the benefits of reduced risks of climate change. Since those creating and those facing the risks of climate change belong to different generations, striking the balance is preem

  17. Risk perceptions and public debates on climate change: a conceptualisation based on the theory of a functionally-differentiated society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Rhomberg

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Mass media and its mechanisms of production and selection play a crucial role in the definition of climate change risks. Different form of logic in the political, scientific and media systems are vital aspects in the public debate on this issue. A theoretical analysis of these aspects needs a framework in terms of social theory: Luhmann’s concept of a functionally-differentiated society and the mechanisms of structural couplings could help to understand the relations and interplay of these systems in the climate-debate. Based on this framework and various empirical studies, this paper suggests: different logics lead to different climate-definitions in science, politics and mass media. Climate change became interesting, but not until it was located in the political decision-making process. Climate issues become publicly interesting, when they are clear, contentious and can be linked to Elite-Persons. In contrast to scientific communication, news media make great efforts to be clear and definite in their communications.

  18. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  19. Invasive alien species in the food chain: Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren Kriticos

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pest risk maps illustrate where invasive alien arthropods, molluscs, pathogens, and weeds might become established, spread, and cause harm to natural and agricultural resources within a pest risk area. Such maps can be powerful tools to assist policymakers in matters of international trade, domestic quarantines, biosecurity surveillance, or pest-incursion responses. The International Pest Risk Mapping Workgroup (IPRMW is a group of ecologists, economists, modellers, and practising risk analysts who are committed to improving the methods used to estimate risks posed by invasive alien species to agricultural and natural resources. The group also strives to improve communication about pest risks to biosecurity, production, and natural-resource-sector stakeholders so that risks can be better managed. The IPRMW previously identified ten activities to improve pest risk assessment procedures, among these were: “improve representations of uncertainty, … expand communications with decision-makers on the interpretation and use of risk maps, … increase international collaboration, … incorporate climate change, … [and] study how human and biological dimensions interact” (Venette et al. 2010.

  20. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  1. What Butterfly Effect? The Contextual Differences in Public Perceptions of the Health Risk Posed by Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    James W. Stoutenborough; Kellee J. Kirkpatrick; M. Jeremy Field; Arnold Vedlitz

    2015-01-01

    One of the most difficult aspects of persuading the public to support climate change policy is the lack of recognition that climate change will likely have a direct impact on an individual’s life. Anecdotal evidence and arguments within the media suggest that those who are skeptical of climate change are more likely to believe that the negative externalities associated with climate change will be experienced by others, and, therefore, are not a concern to that individual. This project examine...

  2. Risk and Social Vulnerability: How Engineering Can Engage more Effectively with Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbas Hassan El-Zein

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Engineering practice, education and research are bound to be important elements in society’s response to climate change. While a number of other disciplines such as economics, agriculture, urban planning and geoscience, are critical to the development of mitigation policies, the designs and processes engineers create in the transport, mining, energy, building and waste management sectors will be key in determining atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases over the coming decades. Similarly, the way landscapes, buildings, neighbourhoods and cities are built or rebuilt, will undoubtedly be a major part of adaptation to higher temperatures, rising sea levels and more extreme weather events. The paper discusses some of the barriers that prevent engineering education and practice from fully and productively engaging with the challenges raised by climate change. The paper recommends an expansion of the solution universe to which engineering students and graduates are exposed, a better understanding by engineering students of the politics of technology and possible biases of engineers, and more engagement on the part of engineers with the social and ecological embeddedness of technology.

  3. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  4. Adaptation in Europe. Addressing risks and opportunities from climate change in the context of socio-economic developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isoard, S. [EEA (Denmark); Winograd, M. [Alterra (Netherlands)

    2013-04-15

    The 'Adaptation in Europe' report describes the policies and some of the measures taken at EU level and by European countries. So far half of the 32 EEA member countries have plans for adaptation, and some have started to take action, although all countries still have a lot of work to do. While global mitigation efforts should continue to aim to limit global temperature increases to 2 deg. C, the report states that it is necessary to prepare for a greater range of temperature increases and other climate changes. This is needed to properly account for the many uncertainties in climatic and socio-economic projections. The report recommends a combination of different measures - 'grey' measures such as technological and engineering projects, 'green' ecosystem-based approaches using nature, and so-called 'soft' measures such as policies to change governance approaches. The most effective adaptation projects often combine two or more different approaches, the report says. For example, adaptation on France's Mediterranean coast uses an integrated approach considering climate change, tourism, transport and biodiversity. In urban areas green spaces and water bodies work together with building design to reduce heatwave risks. Barcelona has also started to adapt to water shortages with a new highly efficient desalination plant. This 'grey' project works in tandem with other 'soft' initiatives such as incentives to reduce water consumption, reducing the impacts from prolonged droughts. While the cost of adaptation may be high in some cases, the report emphasises the overall savings from some adaptation actions. One of the largest ecosystem-based adaptation projects is restoring the Danube river basin to its previously natural state. Although it will cost an estimated Euro 183 million, it should help prevent flooding such as the 2005 event which alone cost Euro 396 million in damages. Early warning systems to help

  5. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  6. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  7. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Knight

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision-support tool (DST that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  8. Risk reduction in a changing insurance climate: examples from the US and UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Diane; McShane, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Coastal cities face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. Insurance can be used as a risk-sharing mechanism to encourage adaptation to sea level rise, using pricing or restrictions on availability of cover to discourage new development in flood risk areas or to encourage the uptake of flood resilience measures. We draw on flood insurance policy lessons learned from the United States and the United Kingdom to propose risk-sharing among private insurers/reinsurers, government, and policyholders to alleviate major issues of the current programs, while still maintaining a holistic approach to managing flood risk. The UK and the US are almost polar opposites in the way flood insurance is implemented. Flood insurance in the US is fully public and in the UK fully private; however, in both countries the participants feel that the established system is unsustainable. In the US, flood coverage is excluded from property policies provided by private insurers, and is only available through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), with the federal government acting as insurer of last resort. Flood risk reduction has been part of the NFIP remit since the introduction of the program in 1968. Following massive payments for flood claims related primarily to Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, the NFIP is approximately 26 billion in debt, prompting calls to bring private insurance back into the flood insurance business. Two major Congressional modifications to the NFIP in 2012 and 2014 have pushed the contradictory goals of fully risk-based, yet affordable premiums. The private market has not been significantly involved in a risk-bearing role, but that is changing as private insurers

  9. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  10. Climate Change and the Willingness to Pay to Reduce Ecological and Health Risks from Wastewater Flooding in Urban Centers and the Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Marcella Veronesi; Fabienne Chawla; Max Maurer; Judit Lienert

    2013-01-01

    Climate change scenarios predict an increase of extreme rain events, which will increase the risk of wastewater flooding and of missing legal water quality targets. This study elicits the willingness to pay to reduce ecological and health risks from combined sewer overflows in rivers and lakes, and wastewater flooding of residential and commercial zones under the uncertainty of climate change. We implement a discrete choice experiment on a large representative sample of the Swiss population. ...

  11. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  12. Climate Vulnerability Assessments : An Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation in Albania’s Power Sector

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    Energy security is a key concern in Albania, which relies on hydropower for about 90 percent of its electricity production. While renewable energy resources like hydropower play a fundamental role in moving the world towards a low-carbon economy, they are also vulnerable to climatic conditions. Climate variability already affects Albania's energy production to a considerable extent, and cl...

  13. Impact of climate change and population growth on a risk assessment for endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In England and Wales, steroid estrogens: estrone, estradiol and ethinylestradiol have previously been identified as the main chemicals causing endocrine disruption in male fish. A national risk assessment is already available for intersex in fish arising from estrogens under current flow conditions. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first set of national catchment-based risk assessments for steroid estrogen under future scenarios. The river flows and temperatures were perturbed using three climate change scenarios (ranging from relatively dry to wet). The effects of demographic changes on estrogen consumption and human population served by sewage treatment works were also included. Compared to the current situation, the results indicated increased future risk:the percentage of high risk category sites, where endocrine disruption is more likely to occur, increased. These increases were mainly caused by changes in human population. This study provides regulators with valuable information to prepare for this potential increased risk. - Highlights: • Risk assessment for the 2050's including climate change and population changes. • Three climate scenarios considered (changes in river flow and river temperature). • Increased risk from fish intersex across all scenarios in England and Wales. • Population is the main factor causing the risk increase for the 2050's. - The predicted increase in risk of endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales in the 2050's is mainly due to human population increase rather than climate change

  14. Human dimension in scientific models in high-mountain climate change and risk projects: Peruvian-Swiss experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuña, Luis; Jurt, Christine; Minan, Fiorella; Huggel, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Models in a range of scientific disciplines are increasingly seen as indispensable for successful adaptation. Governments as well as international organizations and cooperations put their efforts in basing their adaptation projects on scientific results. Thereby, it is critical that scientific models are first put into the particular context in which they will be applied. This paper addresses the experience of the project 'Glaciers 513- Climate change adaptation and disaster risk management for glacier retreat in the Andes' conducted in the districts of Carhuaz (Ancash region) and Santa Teresa (Cusco region) in Peru. The Peruvian and the Swiss governments put their joint efforts in an adaptation project in the context of climate change and the retreat of the glaciers. The project is led by a consortium of Care Peru and the University of Zurich with additional Swiss partners and its principal aim is to improve the capacity for integral adaptation and reduce the risk of disasters from glaciers and high-mountain areas, and effects of climate change, particularly in the regions of Cusco and Ancash. The paper shows how the so called "human dimension" on the one hand, and models from a range of disciplines, including climatology, glaciology, and hydrology on the other hand, were conceptualized and perceived by the different actors involved in the project. Important aspects have been, among others, the role of local knowledge including ancestral knowledge, demographic information, socio-economic indicators as well as the social, political and cultural framework and the historical background. Here we analyze the role and context of local knowledge and the historical background. The analysis of the implications of the differences and similarities of the perceptions of a range of actors contributes to the discussion about how, and to what extent scientific models can be contextualized, what kind of information can be helpful for the contextualization and how it can be

  15. How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate - A case study in arid northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo

    2016-04-15

    Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change. PMID:26815296

  16. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  17. Reporting the climate change crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Anabela

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious threats that humankind will have to deal with in the coming decades. There is every indication that it will engender a significant upheaval in the climate patterns of the world regions, with corresponding impacts on agriculture, ecosystems and human health. This main entail unpredictable weather events, like storms and tornados, while posing significant risks for human security, destruction of housing and economic structures, and floodi...

  18. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  19. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  20. Built cultural heritage facing climate change risks; Le patrimoine culturel bati face aux risques du changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefevre, Roger-Alexandre [Paris-Est Creteil Univ., 61 Avenue du General de Gaulle, 94010 Creteil (France); Martin, Daniel [Ministere de l' Ecologie, du Developpement durable, des Transports et du Logement, Grande Arche, Tour Pascal A et B, 92055 La Defense Cedex (France)

    2011-08-15

    The built cultural heritage would face important risks in the frame of climate change. They are well identified by the major international organizations, but only in a qualitative manner, and mainly refer on the action of water or on its absence. The most active research is supported by the European Commission. The results obtained by the European project 'Noah's Ark' are the most important at the day. Dose-Response Functions with predictive climate models are used to produce vulnerability maps at a European scale of which one example is presented. The recommendations of the Council of Europe for policy makers and researchers are developed as a conclusion. Three case studies are synthesized in annex of this article: Venice, London and Paris. (authors)

  1. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  2. ONERC Observatoire National sur les Effets du Rechauffement Climatique (National Observatory of Climate warming effects). Report to the Prime Minister and to Parliament. Climate changes and public health risks in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having recalled the climate change context and the activities of the ONERC (the French National Observatory of Climate Warming Effects) since its previous report, this report gathers several contributions by as many scientists. They propose analysis, comments and discussions on various topics: human diseases which might be influenced by climate change in France (heat waves and allergies, emergence of animal and human diseases, potential impacts of climate change on vector-borne diseases, infectious diseases in overseas territories, public health consequences), surveillance and health alert systems (infectious disease national surveillance and monitoring network, emergency response, satellite imagery, public health and risk management, lessons learned from the chikungunya pandemic), public health and risk management (overview of international works on the relationship between climate change and public health, public health consequences of climate change)

  3. Quantifying storm tide risk in Fiji due to climate variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McInnes, Kathleen L.; Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Hoeke, Ron K.; O'Grady, Julian G.; Colberg, Frank; Hubbert, Graeme D.

    2014-05-01

    Extreme sea level events due to tropical cyclone storm surge combined with astronomical tide (storm tides) severely impact Pacific Island communities and these impacts are expected to increase with projected sea level rise. However, these sea level extremes are not well characterised by available tide gauge records owing to the low frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones, the sparse array of tide gauges and the short time frame over which many gauges in this region have been operating. In this study, a combined statistical/dynamical method for estimating storm tide risk is presented. Tropical cyclones in the Fiji region over the period 1969-2007 are characterised in a statistical model that represents cyclone frequency, intensity and movement. The statistical model is then used to develop a population of “synthetic” cyclones that provide boundary conditions to a hydrodynamic storm surge and tidal model. This Monte-Carlo method is applied to the coasts of the Fiji archipelago. It is found that storm tide risk is higher on the northwest coasts of both the southern and northern main islands Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, respectively. Modelling suggests that there is a greater tendency for higher storm surges to occur on southwest Viti Levu under El Niño and La Niña years compared with average years, but elsewhere on Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, there is a tendency for slightly lower storm surges in La Niña years. Imposing perturbations to the cyclone statistical model that represent projected tropical cyclone changes in intensity and frequency for mid to late 21st Century, leads to storm tide return period curves that are steeper such that sea levels associated with return periods of 200 years or more become higher, those with return periods of 50 years and less become lower and the 1-in-100 year heights are little changed. Projected changes in sea level are found to make the largest contribution to increased extreme sea level risk.

  4. Climate Change and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speake...

  5. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  6. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  7. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  8. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  9. Effects of Climate Change on Natural and Regulated Flood Risks in the Skagit River Basin and Prospects for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    LEE, S.; Hamlet, A. F.

    2011-12-01

    Based on global climate model (GCM) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) and subsequent hydrologic modeling studies for the Pacific Northwest, the impacts of climate change on flooding in Western Washington are likely to be substantial. Many rivers draining to Puget Sound show timing shifts of peak flows from spring to winter and increases in the simulated natural 100-year flood (Q100) of 20-30% by the mid-21st century. A regional climate model (RCM) scenario, which provides greatly improved representation of mountain topography and important feedback mechanisms, is also used in this study. Preliminary results based on a RCM scenario (Echam5 A1B) for the 2050s also show substantial increases in future flood risk in many Pacific Northwest River basins. In comparison with GCM scenarios, a RCM scenario shows more apparent timing shifts of peak flows from spring to fall/winter. To assess the combined effects of increasing natural flood risks and dam operations that determine impacts to regulated flow, a new integrated daily time step reservoir operations model was built for the Skagit River Basin. The model simulates current operating policies for historical flow conditions and for projected flow for the 2040s and 2080s associated with the Echam5 A1B scenario (a global climate model scenario which approximates the average conditions simulated by all models). By simulating alternative reservoir operating policies that provide increased flood storage and starting flood evacuation one month earlier, prospects for the adaptation are considered. Preliminary results from daily time step reservoir operations modeling (based on a single climate change scenario) suggest that the regulated 100-year flood will increase substantially in the future in comparison with historical baselines (20% by the 2040s and 24% by the 2080s). Proposed increases in flood storage are simulated to decrease the magnitude of the regulated 100

  10. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  11. Farmers and Climate Change: A Cross-National Comparison of Beliefs and Risk Perceptions in High-Income Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokopy, Linda S; Arbuckle, J G; Barnes, Andrew P; Haden, V R; Hogan, Anthony; Niles, Meredith T; Tyndall, John

    2015-08-01

    Climate change has serious implications for the agricultural industry-both in terms of the need to adapt to a changing climate and to modify practices to mitigate for the impacts of climate change. In high-income countries where farming tends to be very intensive and large scale, it is important to understand farmers' beliefs and concerns about climate change in order to develop appropriate policies and communication strategies. Looking across six study sites-Scotland, Midwestern United States, California, Australia, and two locations in New Zealand-this paper finds that over half of farmers in each location believe that climate change is occurring. However, there is a wide range of beliefs regarding the anthropogenic nature of climate change; only in Australia do a majority of farmers believe that climate change is anthropogenic. In all locations, a majority of farmers believe that climate change is not a threat to local agriculture. The different policy contexts and existing impacts from climate change are discussed as possible reasons for the variation in beliefs. This study compared varying surveys from the different locations and concludes that survey research on farmers and climate change in diverse locations should strive to include common questions to facilitate comparisons. PMID:25896821

  12. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  13. Adaptation to climate change for peace and stability. Strengthening of approaches and instruments as well as promotion of processes to reduce the security risks posed by climate change in the context of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taenzler, Dennis; Mohns, Till; Ziegenhagen, Katherina [Adelphi Research, Berlin (Germany)

    2013-10-15

    The findings of the project ''Strengthening of approaches and instruments as well as promotion of processes to reduce the security risks posed by climate change in the context of climate change adaptation'' are summarized in this report. The main objective of the project is to outline the potential contribution of adaptation measures to avoid crisis and conflicts caused or exacerbated by water scarcity, food shortages or extreme weather events. As discussed in the conceptual chapter of the report, adaptation can contribute to peace and stability even in conflict-prone areas given that a conflict-sensitive approach is applied. On the basis of a comprehensive regional analysis, we show that adaptation is not yet a prominent element of regional cooperation. To address this gap, we design three regional adaptation roadmaps for the Andes region, Central and South Asia based on desk review of regional processes and programs as well as expert consultations. To ensure that the results of the projects can be considered in national and international policy processes and to strengthen international governance for adaptation we close with a Memorandum for action outlining major principles to support processes for adaptation and peace. [German] Das Vorhaben ''Entwicklung von Ansaetzen und Instrumenten sowie Foerderung von Prozessen zur Eindaemmung der Sicherheitsrisiken des Klimawandels im Rahmen der Anpassung an den Klimawandel'' untersucht den moeglichen Beitrag, den Massnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel fuer Frieden und Stabilitaet leisten koennen. Kernanliegen des Vorhabens ist die Vermeidung von durch den Klimawandel erzeugten oder verstaerkten Sicherheitsrisiken wie Wasserknappheit, Nahrungsmittelengpaesse oder extreme Wetterereignisse. Wie die konzeptionelle Eingangsbetrachtung des Endberichts zeigt, koennen Anpassungsprozesse - auch in konfliktgepraegten Gebieten - einen friedensfoerdernden Beitrag leisten, allerdings bedarf

  14. Risk and efficacy of human-enabled interspecific hybridization for climate-change adaptation: Response to Hamilton and Miller (2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, Ryan P.; Luikart, Gordon; Lowe, Winsor H.; Boyer, Matthew C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

    2016-01-01

    Hamilton and Miller (2016) provide an interesting and provocative discussion of how hybridization and introgression can promote evolutionary potential in the face of climate change. They argue that hybridization—mating between individuals from genetically distinct populations—can alleviate inbreeding depression and promote adaptive introgression and evolutionary rescue. We agree that deliberate intraspecific hybridization (mating between individuals of the same species) is an underused management tool for increasing fitness in inbred populations (i.e., genetic rescue; Frankham 2015; Whiteley et al. 2015). The potential risks and benefits of assisted gene flow have been discussed in the literature, and an emerging consensus suggests that mating between populations isolated for approximately 50–100 generations can benefit fitness, often with a minor risk of outbreeding depression (Frankham et al. 2011; Aitken & Whitlock 2013; Allendorf et al. 2013).

  15. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  16. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  17. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... entrepreneurs create windows for action through the establishment of local networks. The thesis contributes knowledge on the constraints of the internal integration process in city governments. It provides explanations of why these constraints occur, and how officials seek to overcome them. The thesis provides...

  18. Response to Out of Balance: The risk of irreversible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Standing Committee on Environment of the Canadian House of Commons tabled a report entitled Out of Balance, which was an investigation of issues related to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and possible responses to impending climatic change. The government's response to the recommendations made in that report are presented. The framework to the government's response is first introduced, which includes the National Action Strategy on Global Warming (NASGW) that provides a strategy for Canadian initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The strategy is based on the fundamental principles of comprehensiveness, the importance of international agreements, and flexibility. The Standing Committee's recommendations focused on policies to limit Canadian emissions of carbon dioxide, one of the major greenhouse gases. Canadian policies to achieve this goal are being implemented in the Green Plan and the NASGW. Other recommendations and responses involve environmental education, greenhouse gas data collection, phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons, natural gas leakage, energy conservation and demand management, regulatory systems, fuel efficiency standards, forest management, greenhouse gas emissions from federal departments and agencies, and encouragement of environmentally acceptable technologies

  19. Overheating risk assessment of naturally ventilated classroom under the influence of climate change in hot and humid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kuo-Tsang

    2013-04-01

    Natural ventilation (NV) is considered one of the passive building strategies used for reducing cooling energy demand. The utilization of nature wind for cooling down indoor thermal environment to reach thermal comfort requires knowledge of adequately positioning the building fenestrations, designing inlet-outlet related opening ratios, planning unobstructed cross ventilation paths, and, the most important, assessing the utilization feasibility base on local climatic variables. Furthermore, factors that influence the indoor thermal condition include building envelope heat gain, indoor air velocity, indoor heat gain (e.g. heat discharges from occupant's body, lighting fixture, electrical appliances), and outdoor climate. Among the above, the indoor thermal performance of NV building is significantly dependent to outdoor climate conditions. In hot and humid Taiwan, under college school classrooms are usually operated in natural ventilation mode and are more vulnerable to climate change in regard to maintain indoor thermal comfort. As climate changes in progress, NV classrooms would expect to encounter more events of overheating in the near future, which result in more severe heat stress, and would risk the utilization of natural ventilation. To evaluate the overheating risk under the influence of recent climate change, an actual top floor elementary school classroom with 30 students located at north Taiwan was modeled. Long-term local hourly meteorological data were gathered and further constructed into EnergyPlus Weather Files (EPWs) format for building thermal dynamic simulation to discuss the indoor thermal environmental variation during the period of 1998 to 2012 by retrospective simulation. As indoor thermal environment is an overall condition resulting from a series combination of various factors, sub-hourly building simulation tool, EnergyPlus, coupled with the above fifteen years' EPWs was adopted to predict hourly indoor parameters of mean radiant

  20. Reservoir Systems in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W.; Tung, C.; Tai, C.

    2007-12-01

    Climate change may cause more climate variability and further results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir¡¦s abilities to provide service, such as water supply and flood mitigation, and even danger reservoir¡¦s safety. Some local studies have identified that climate change may cause more flood in wet period and less flow in dry period in Taiwan. To mitigate climate change impacts, more reservoir space, i.e. less storage, may be required to store higher flood in wet periods, while more reservoir storage may be required to supply water for dry periods. The goals to strengthen adaptive capacity of water supply and flood mitigation are conflict under climate change. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems. The evaluation procedure includes hydrological models, a reservoir water balance model, and a water supply system dynamics model. The hydrological models are used to simulate reservoir inflows under different climate conditions. Future climate scenarios are derived from several GCMs. Then, the reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir¡¦s storage and outflows according to the simulated inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. At last, those outflows are further input to the system dynamics model to assess whether the goal of water supply can still be met. To mitigate climate change impacts, the implementing adaptation strategies will be suggested with the principles of risk management. Besides, uncertainties of this study will also be analyzed. The Feitsui reservoir system in northern Taiwan is chosen as a case study.

  1. Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

  2. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  3. Responses to climate and economic risks and opportunities across national and ecological boundaries: changing household strategies on the Mongolian plateau

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate changes on the Mongolian Plateau are creating new challenges for the households and communities of the region. Much of the existing research on household choices in response to climate variability and change focuses on environmental risks and stresses. In contrast, our analysis highlights the importance of taking into account environmental and economic opportunities in explaining household adaptation choices. We surveyed over 750 households arrayed along an ecological gradient and matched across the national border in Mongolia and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, asking what changes in livelihoods strategies households made over the last ten years, and analyzed these choices in two broad categories of options: diversification and livestock management. We combined these data with remotely sensed information about vegetation growth and self-reported exposure to price fluctuations. Our statistical results showed that households experiencing lower ecological and economic variability, higher average levels of vegetation growth, and with greater levels of material wealth, were often those that undertook more actions to improve their conditions in the face of variability. The findings have implications both for how interventions aimed at supporting ongoing choices might be targeted and for theory construction related to social adaptation. (letter)

  4. Responses to climate and economic risks and opportunities across national and ecological boundaries: changing household strategies on the Mongolian plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Daniel G; Agrawal, Arun; Sass, Daniel A; Wang, Jun; Hua, Jin; Xie, Yichun

    2013-01-01

    Climate changes on the Mongolian Plateau are creating new challenges for the households and communities of the region. Much of the existing research on household choices in response to climate variability and change focuses on environmental risks and stresses. In contrast, our analysis highlights the importance of taking into account environmental and economic opportunities in explaining household adaptation choices. We surveyed over 750 households arrayed along an ecological gradient and matched across the national border in Mongolia and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, asking what changes in livelihoods strategies households made over the last ten years, and analyzed these choices in two broad categories of options: diversification and livestock management. We combined these data with remotely sensed information about vegetation growth and self-reported exposure to price fluctuations. Our statistical results showed that households experiencing lower ecological and economic variability, higher average levels of vegetation growth, and with greater levels of material wealth, were often those that undertook more actions to improve their conditions in the face of variability. The findings have implications both for how interventions aimed at supporting ongoing choices might be targeted and for theory construction related to social adaptation.

  5. Responses to climate and economic risks and opportunities across national and ecological boundaries: changing household strategies on the Mongolian plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Daniel G.; Agrawal, Arun; Sass, Daniel A.; Wang, Jun; Hua, Jin; Xie, Yichun

    2013-12-01

    Climate changes on the Mongolian Plateau are creating new challenges for the households and communities of the region. Much of the existing research on household choices in response to climate variability and change focuses on environmental risks and stresses. In contrast, our analysis highlights the importance of taking into account environmental and economic opportunities in explaining household adaptation choices. We surveyed over 750 households arrayed along an ecological gradient and matched across the national border in Mongolia and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, asking what changes in livelihoods strategies households made over the last ten years, and analyzed these choices in two broad categories of options: diversification and livestock management. We combined these data with remotely sensed information about vegetation growth and self-reported exposure to price fluctuations. Our statistical results showed that households experiencing lower ecological and economic variability, higher average levels of vegetation growth, and with greater levels of material wealth, were often those that undertook more actions to improve their conditions in the face of variability. The findings have implications both for how interventions aimed at supporting ongoing choices might be targeted and for theory construction related to social adaptation.

  6. Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Zhou, Maigeng; Liang, Xudong; Ban, Jie; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2016-06-01

    An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heat-related mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

  7. Aging Will Amplify the Heat-Related Mortality Risk Under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Zhou, Maigeng; Liang, Xudong; Ban, Jie; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2016-01-01

    An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heatrelated mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

  8. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  9. 2012 NEHA/UL sabbatical report: vulnerability to potential impacts of climate change: adaptation and risk communication strategies for environmental health practitioners in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut

    2014-04-01

    Climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning have become increasingly important to environmental health practitioners (EHPs). The NEHA/UL Sabbatical Exchange Award allowed me to investigate how EHPs in the UK are incorporating climate change planning and communication strategies into their work. Projected climate change risks in the UK include flooding, extreme heat, water shortages, severe weather, decreased air quality, and changes in vectors. Despite public perception and funding challenges, all the local government representatives with whom I met incorporated climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning into their work. The mandated Community Risk Register serves as a key planning document developed by each local government authority and is a meaningful way to look at potential climate change health risks. Adaptation and sustainability were common threads in my meetings. These often took the form of "going green" with transportation, energy efficiency, conserving resources, and building design because the efforts made sense monetarily as future cost savings. Communication strategies targeted a variety of audiences (EHPs, non-EHP government employees, politicians, and the general public) using a broad range of communication channels (professional training, lobbying, conferences and fairs, publications, print materials, Internet resources, social media, billboards, etc).

  10. Climate Change and the Social Factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Kjerulf; Jensen, Anne; Nielsen, Signe Svalgaard

    risks and concerns of everyday life? The project found that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. The prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting......This poster reports from a explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The aim of the project was to explore how people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation, what risks are associated with climate change and how are those risks balanced with other...... ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. People have a high level of trust in socio-technical systems and feel that adaptation measures primarily should be taken by the authorities....

  11. Implications of climate change on the distribution of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis and risk for Lyme disease in the Texas-Mexico transboundary region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Disease risk maps are important tools that help ascertain the likelihood of exposure to specific infectious agents. Understanding how climate change may affect the suitability of habitats for ticks will improve the accuracy of risk maps of tick-borne pathogen transmission in humans and domestic anim...

  12. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  13. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  14. Climate change and risk of leishmaniasis in north america: predictions from ecological niche models of vector and reservoir species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila González

    vector and reservoir species will see an expansion of their potential range towards the north. Thus, leishmaniasis has the potential to expand northwards from México and the southern United States. In the eastern United States its spread is predicted to be limited by the range of L. diabolica; further west, L. anthophora may play the same role. In the east it may even reach the southern boundary of Canada. The risk of spread is greater for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. Even in the latter case, with restrictive (contiguous models for dispersal of vector and reservoir species, and limiting vector and reservoir species occupancy to only the top 10% of their potential suitable habitat, the expected number of human individuals exposed to leishmaniasis by 2080 will at least double its present value. CONCLUSIONS: These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies-besides direct intervention in disease cases-should also be further investigated.

  15. Lack of Climate Expertise Among Climate Change Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doesken, N.

    2015-12-01

    It is hard to know enough about anything. Many educators fully accept the science as well as the hype associated with climate change and try very hard to be climate literate. But many of these same educators striving for greater climate literacy are surprisingly ignorant about the climate itself (typical seasonal cycles, variations, extremes, spatial patterns and the drivers that produce them). As a result, some of these educators and their students are tempted to interpret each and every hot or cold and wet or dry spell as convincing evidence of climate change even as climate change "skeptics" view those same fluctuations as normal. Educators' overreaction risks a backfire reaction resulting in loss of credibility among the very groups they are striving to educate and influence. This presentation will include reflections on climate change education and impacts based on 4 decades of climate communication in Colorado.

  16. 气候变化风险研究的初步探讨%Primary Study on the Theories and Methods of Research on Climate Change Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴绍洪; 潘韬; 贺山峰

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the theories and methods of climate change risk study for carrying out basis for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damaging and relativity are the major features of tlimate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps including risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We also gave out the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study of China's floods risk was taken to give an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we pointed out some main aspects of climate change risk research including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, risk management and so on.%讨论了气候变化风险的基本内涵,指出敏感性、暴露程度及可能性是气候变化风险的三个基本组成要素.气候变化风险具有不确定性、未来事件、损害性以及相对性等特征.风险评估与风险管理是气候变化风险研究的两个主要环节,以风险评估为手段,以风险管理为最终目标,是应对气候变化行动的基本思路.提出了气候变化风险研究的初步框架和主要方法.并给出未来气候变化下中国洪涝灾害风险研究的实际案例.最后指出,气候变化风险研究要从风险集合预测、定量风险损失评估、风险区划与制图以及风险管理等多个方面展开.

  17. Current Climate Variability & Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  18. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... during the last 10 000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to severely influence both...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  19. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been released in great quantities through their use in aerosol sprays, refrigerator fluids, and insulating foams. We can get rid of CFCs and curb the pollutants generating ozone, but it will be difficult to put the brake on either methane or nitrous oxide. And the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will demand major changes in energy policy as well as action to slow deforestation. It appears that we are already committed to rising temperatures and sea levels. The question is by how much, in which areas? A number of things can be done to prepare for these changes: Governments must recognize that there is a problem; Better models must be worked out, especially to define where the greatest impacts from climate change and sea level rise will hit; Reference scenarios must be developed to see what the impacts are likely to be in ecological, agricultural, social and economic terms; Every country should develop "avoidance strategies" to minimize risk (for example, by not building on land likely to be flooded); We must cut down on the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere from human activities, by eliminating CFCs and adopting energy conservation programs and other measures to minimize CO2 release; Global agreements to protect the atmosphere are needed. PMID:12285901

  20. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been released in great quantities through their use in aerosol sprays, refrigerator fluids, and insulating foams. We can get rid of CFCs and curb the pollutants generating ozone, but it will be difficult to put the brake on either methane or nitrous oxide. And the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will demand major changes in energy policy as well as action to slow deforestation. It appears that we are already committed to rising temperatures and sea levels. The question is by how much, in which areas? A number of things can be done to prepare for these changes: Governments must recognize that there is a problem; Better models must be worked out, especially to define where the greatest impacts from climate change and sea level rise will hit; Reference scenarios must be developed to see what the impacts are likely to be in ecological, agricultural, social and economic terms; Every country should develop "avoidance strategies" to minimize risk (for example, by not building on land likely to be flooded); We must cut down on the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere from human activities, by eliminating CFCs and adopting energy conservation programs and other measures to minimize CO2 release; Global agreements to protect the atmosphere are needed.

  1. PREFACE: The IARU International Scientific Congress on Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions (10-12 March, Copenhagen, Denmark)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    In an attempt to make the main results from the Congress on Climate Change: Global Risk, Challenges and Decisions available to the public as early as possible, the steering committee decided to publish all talks and posters presented at the Congress in this unique collection of abstracts, in time for the conference Further to the abstract collection the Congress will publish two more products in the near future as described in the following; a synthesis report with the main conclusions, and a book aimed at an academic audience 1 Two Products from the Congress Two products are being produced based on the presentations and discussions at the Congress The first product will be a synthesis report of the main conclusions from the Congress The synthesis report will be ready in June 2009 The synthesis has the purpose of explaining the current state of understanding man-made climate change and what we can do about it to the non-scientist, ie politicians, media and interested citizens The synthesis will build on the messages presented to the Danish Prime Minister, Mr Anders Fogh Rasmussen, host of the COP15, at the closing session of the Congress These six messages were drafted by the Writing Team (see below) based on input from the session chairs and a reading of the 1600+ abstracts submitted to the Congress The second product is a book aimed at an academic audience The book will include more detailed scientific results from all of the sessions and will be published by Cambridge University Press in 2010 It will be an extension and elaboration of the synthesis report Who's writing the Synthesis Report and the Book? A Writing Team consisting of 12 internationally respected scientists from all continents is responsible for developing both products When the synthesis report has been drafted by the Writing Team, it will be discussed in the Scientific Steering Committee of the Congress and reviewed by the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) and a group of experts identified

  2. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  3. Making Cities Resilient to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dulal, Hari Bansha

    2016-01-01

    Urbanization is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanization level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanization has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countri...

  4. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  5. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, A.; Schijven, J.F.; de Nijs, T.; de Roda Husman, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects o

  6. Coping with the uncertainties in the climate change adaptation of river dikes using risk-aversion economic optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, L.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Vrijling, J.K.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Maskey, S.

    2013-01-01

    To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncerta

  7. Solid Biomass Climate Change Interventions Examined in a Context of Inherent Safety, Media Shifting and Emerging Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedlund, Frank Huess; Astad, John

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines recent evidence from Denmark an d abroad regarding climate change projects that aim to reduce global carbon dioxide e missions by converting coal-fired thermal power plants to solid biomass fuel. The paper argue s that projects appear to be pursued narrow-mindedly with insuffi......This paper examines recent evidence from Denmark an d abroad regarding climate change projects that aim to reduce global carbon dioxide e missions by converting coal-fired thermal power plants to solid biomass fuel. The paper argue s that projects appear to be pursued narrow...... benefits over safety concerns seems to run deep and not confined to the realm of only solid biomass. Danish environmental ambitions are very high and the costs to society of introducing solid biomass fuels are breathtaking. In this setting, the general failure to address safety risk s appears particularly......-mindedly with insufficient attention paid to safety and points to evidence of media shifting - that the ‘resolution’ of a problem within the environmental domain creates a new problem in the workplace safety domain. From the perspective of inherent safety the paper argues that the conversion is a step in the wrong direction...

  8. Salt Intake and Health Risk in Climate Change Vulnerable Coastal Bangladesh: What Role Do Beliefs and Practices Play?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Rasheed

    Full Text Available High salt consumption is an important risk factor of elevated blood pressure. In Bangladesh about 20 million people are at high risk of hypertension due to climate change induced saline intrusion in water. The objective of this study is to assess beliefs, perceptions, and practices associated with salt consumption in coastal Bangladesh.The study was conducted in Chakaria, Bangladesh between April-June 2011. It was a cross sectional mixed method study. For the qualitative study 6 focus group discussions, 8 key informant interviews, 60 free listing exercises, 20 ranking exercises and 10 observations were conducted. 400 adults were randomly selected for quantitative survey. For analysis we used SPSS for quantitative data, and Anthropac and Nvivo for qualitative data.Salt was described as an essential component of food with strong cultural and religious roots. People described both health benefits and risks related to salt intake. The overall risk perception regarding excessive salt consumption was low and respondents believed that the cooking process can render the salt harmless. Respondents were aware that salt is added in many foods even if they do not taste salty but did not recognize that salt can occur naturally in both foods and water.In the study community people had low awareness of the risks associated with excess salt consumption and salt reduction strategies were not high in their agenda. The easy access to and low cost of salt as well as unrecognised presence of salt in drinking water has created an environment conducive to excess salt consumption. It is important to design general messages related to salt reduction and test tailored strategies especially for those at high risk of hypertension.

  9. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  10. Fostering Hope in Climate Change Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swim, Janet K.; Fraser, John

    2013-01-01

    Climate Change is a complex set of issues with large social and ecological risks. Addressing it requires an attentive and climate literate population capable of making informed decisions. Informal science educators are well-positioned to teach climate science and motivate engagement, but many have resisted the topic because of self-doubt about…

  11. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  12. Simulation modelling and risk assessment as tools to identify the impact of climate change on microbiological food safety – The case study of fresh produce supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacxsens, L.; Luning, P.A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Devlieghere, F.; Leemans, R.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    The current quality assurance and control tools and methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to the following pressures upon the food supply chain, i.e. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. It demonstrates

  13. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...

  14. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  15. Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud

    IPCC climate change scenarios, which also consider possible changes in urban population, have been developed. Innovative strategies to land use and spatial planning are proposed that seek synergies between the adaptation to climate change and the need to solve social problems. Furthermore, the book......Urbanisation and climate change are among the major challenges for sustainable development in Africa. The overall aim of this book is to present innovative approaches to vulnerability analysis and for enhancing the resilience of African cities against climate change-induced risks. Locally adapted...... explores the role of governance in successfully coping with climate-induced risks in urban areas. The book is unique in that it combines: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences...

  16. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  17. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  18. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  19. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  20. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  1. A Risk-Based Assessment of Agricultural Water Scarcity Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid and Snowmelt-Dominated River Basin

    OpenAIRE

    Moursi, Hossam

    2016-01-01

    Water scarcity is the major challenge that water managers face in semi-arid areas, especially in regions that depend on agriculture for rural livelihood. Climate change is one of the major stresses that is expected to exacerbate water scarcity problems in semi-arid regions. In this study, a risk-based approach was used to assess the climate change impacts on the risk of agricultural water scarcity in semi-arid and snowmelt-dominated river basins that are dependent on agriculture. The Sevier R...

  2. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  3. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  4. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  5. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  6. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  7. Poverty Traps and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2011-01-01

    We use a demo-economic model to examine the question of whether climate change could widen or deepen poverty traps. The model includes two crucial mechanisms. Parents are risk averse when deciding how many children to have; fertility is high when infant survival is low. High fertility spreads scarce household resources thin, resulting in children being poorly educated. At the macro level, technological progress is slow because of decreasing returns to scale in agriculture. With high populatio...

  8. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  9. A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate pluvial floods risk under changing climate: The case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, A; Torresan, S; Gallina, V; Coppola, E; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2016-08-15

    Global climate change is likely to pose increasing threats in nearly all sectors and across all sub-regions worldwide (IPCC, 2014). Particularly, extreme weather events (e.g. heavy precipitations), together with changing exposure and vulnerability patterns, are expected to increase the damaging effect of storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding. Developing climate and adaptation services for local planners and decision makers is becoming essential to transfer and communicate sound scientific knowledge about climate related risks and foster the development of national, regional and local adaptation strategies. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on pluvial flood risk and advice adaptation planning, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice. Based on the integrated analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, RRA allows identifying and prioritizing targets and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood risk due to heavy precipitation events in the future scenario 2041-2050. From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the requests, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. Results of the analysis showed that all targets (i.e. residential, commercial-industrial areas and infrastructures) are vulnerable to pluvial floods due to the high impermeability and low slope of the topography. The spatial pattern of risk mostly reflects the distribution of the hazard and the districts with the higher percentage of receptors' surface in the higher risk classes (i.e. very high, high and medium) are Lido-Pellestrina and Marghera. The paper discusses how risk-based maps and statistics integrate scientific and local knowledge with the final aim to mainstream climate adaptation in the development

  10. Challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husaini, Amjad M

    2014-01-01

    Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

  11. Climate change adaptation planning in large cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Araos, Malcolm; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Lesnikowski, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    Cities globally face significant risks from climate change, and are taking an increasingly active role in formulating and implementing climate change adaptation policy. However, there are few, if any, global assessments of adaptation taking place across cities. This study develops and applies a f

  12. Adapting to Climate Change in ECA

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, Marianne; Block, Rachel; Carrington, Tim; Ebinger, Jane

    2009-01-01

    Contrary to popular perception, Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries are significantly threatened by climate change, with serious risks already in evidence. The vulnerability and adaptive capacity of ECA countries to climate change over the next two decades will be dominated by socio-economic factors and legacy issues. The next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA to make its d...

  13. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  14. 2011: Climate Change: Latin America and the Caribbean: Risks for the Microfinance Sector and Opportunities for Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    María Elena Gutierrez; Xavier Mommens

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to show how microfinance services may undergo the impacts of climate change, to analyze the opportunities available for MFIs and to propose concrete actions. This paper was commissioned by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in coordination with the Sustainable Energy and Climate Change Unit (ECC) and the Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF), and it was prepared on the basis of bibliographic reviews, experience in the Latin American region, and interviews that...

  15. Corporate Social Responsibility, Negative Externalities, and Financial Risk: The Case of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Busch, Timo; Lehmann, Nils; Hoffmann, Volker H.

    2012-01-01

    Certain types of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities can generate an ‘insurance-like’ benefit for firms (Godfrey, 2005). Thus far, this risk management hypothesis has been verified for the effects of firm-specific negative events. We argue that this insurance-like benefit of CSR-activities can be equally expected in the context of long-term developments which threaten current business models. We develop our arguments for the incremental, long-term process of internalizing negativ...

  16. Climate change risks to United States infrastructure: impacts on coastal development, roads, bridges, and urban drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of infrastructure, its deployment, and its role in protecting econom...

  17. How to ensure that the results of climate risk analysis make a difference? - Experience from applied research addressing the challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Zebisch, Marc; Becker, Daniel; Pedoth, Lydia; Renner, Kathrin; Kienberger, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Changing climate conditions may have beneficial or adverse effects on the social-ecological systems we are living in. In any case, the possible effects result from complex and interlinked physical and social processes embedded in these systems. Traditional research addresses these bio-physical and societal issues in a separate way. Therefore, in general, studies on risks related to climate change are still mono-disciplinary in nature with an increasing amount of work following a multi-disciplinary approach. The quality and usefulness of the results of such research for policy or decision making in practice may further be limited by study designs that do not acknowledge appropriately the significance of integrating or at least mixing qualitative and quantitative information and knowledge. Finally, the acceptance of study results - particularly when containing some kind of assessments - is often endangered by insufficient and / or late involvement of stakeholders and users. The above mentioned limitations have often been brought up in the recent past. However, despite that a certain consensus could be achieved in the last years recognising the need to tackle these issues, little progress has been made in terms of implementation within the context of (research) studies. This paper elaborates in detail on reasons that hamper the application of - interdisciplinary (i.e. natural and social science), - trans-disciplinary (i.e. co-production of knowledge) and - integrative (i.e. combining qualitative and quantitative approaches) work. It is based on the experience gained through a number of applied climate change vulnerability studies carried out within the context of various GIZ-financed development cooperation projects, a consultancy project for the German Environment Agency as well as the workshop series INQUIMUS, which tackles particularly the issues of mixing qualitative and quantitative research approaches. Potentials and constraints of possible attempts for

  18. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered. PMID:23185568

  19. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  20. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Blennow

    Full Text Available Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01 to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03 for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008 to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02. We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  1. Crop Production Risk in the Pampas: A Bayesian Weather Generator for Climate Change and Land Use Impact Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, A.; Rajagopalan, B.; Kleiber, W.; Podesta, G. P.; Bert, F.

    2015-12-01

    We present a space-time stochastic weather generator for daily precipitation and temperature, developed within a Bayesian hierarchical framework (hereafter BayGEN). This framework offers a unique advantage: it provides robust estimation of uncertainty that is typically under-represented in traditional weather generators. Realistic estimates of uncertainty are of utmost importance for studying climate variability and change, impacts on land use, and crop production. BayGEN is applied to a network of weather stations in the Salado basin of the Argentine Pampas, a region that saw immense agricultural expansion towards climatically marginal (i.e., semi-arid) regions, in part due to significant trends in annual precipitation from 1970-2000. Since the turn of the century, observed conditions suggest a decrease in precipitation, which begs the question: "Are the existing agricultural production systems viable in a drier future?" The use of process based (i.e., hydrologic, crop simulation) models in conjunction with BayGEN will allow for complete analysis of the system's response to an ensemble of plausible future scenarios. Precipitation occurrence at each site is modeled at the first level of hierarchy using probit regression with covariates for seasonality, where the latent process is Gaussian -- positivity in the latent process implies occurrence. The precipitation amounts are modeled using a transformed gamma regression (i.e., gamma generalized linear model), similarly with seasonality covariates. Minimum and maximum temperatures are conditional on precipitation occurrence and are decomposed into two processes: (i) climate -- linear regressions on seasonality covariates, and (ii) weather -- realizations from mean-zero Gaussian random fields. The use of seasonality covariates allows the generation of daily weather sequences conditioned on seasonal forecasts or projected multi-annual trends, an increasingly important practice for risk assessment in climatically marginal

  2. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  3. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  4. Irreversivle Climate Change Will Also Change Environmental Assessment and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2010-01-01

    Currently, the environmental and management methods for climate change will not be effective after irreversible climate change occurs. Without efforts to stabilize greenhouse gases, the temperature will continue to increase leading to: 1) risk to unique and threatened systems, 2) risk of extreme weather events, 3) distribution of impacts, 4) aggregate damages, and 5) risks of large-scaled discontinuities. New management systems must be put in place to protect natural capital and ecosystem se...

  5. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  6. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  7. Experience of Climate Change Adaptation; Emic Perception of Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction Programs in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rathana peou van den Heuvel

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Over 40 years (I/ NGOs together with the Government of Bangladesh (GoB have been working to build the capacity of population at risk to cope with natural disasters. From a response rationale to preparedness one, (I/NGOs together with the GoB struggled to integrate adaptation frame into Disaster Risk Reduction program. Those initial steps were mainly lead by a top down approach. Bangladesh usually pointed as the most vulnerable country in the world, has a long history of different frame of actions and practices toward building both community and individual resilience. Structural poverty and low good governance mechanisms are just some of the factors that jeopardize the gains of development project in general in Bangladesh. Donors and (I/NGO play major roles by shaping not only the national discourse but as well by leading the practices and the methodology that needs to be used at the field. Within couple of years, community based approach has been largely adopted by different institutions as being the right way to deliver intervention that aims at reducing the vulnerability and the enhancing the resilience. It is in this context that this paper offers an insight on how DRR and adaptation is translated at the field level. Through an emic perspective this research aims at confronting the realities of the practices of DRR/ Adaptation by (I/NGOs to the discourse that they communicate.

  8. SANREM CRSP LTR4: Adapting to change in the Andes: Practices and strategies to address market and climate risks in vulnerable ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Valdivia, Corinne

    2008-01-01

    This presentation describes the work of the SANREM CRSP Long term research activity 4 (LTRA-4), "Adapting to Change in the Andes: Practices and Strategies to Address Market and Climate Risks in Vulnerable Ecosystems." The objectives of the project are to address: LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

  9. A Best Practices Notebook for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: Guidance and Insights for Policy and Practice from the CATALYST Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, M.; Bers, van C.; Mysiak, J.; Calliari, E.; Haque, A.; Warner, K.; Yuzva, K.; Zissener, M.; Jaspers, A.M.J.; Timmerman, J.G.

    2014-01-01

    This publication, A Best Practices Notebook for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: Guidance and Insights for Policy and Practice from the CATALYST Project is one of two main CATALYST knowledge products that focus on the transformative approaches and measures that can support Disa

  10. Outchasing climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

  11. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  12. Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization

  13. The Climate Change Challenge for Land Professionals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2014-01-01

    such as sea level rise and environmental degradation through global positioning infrastructures and data interpretation and presentation; • Implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation measures into land administration systems and systems for disaster risk management. This paper provides an overall...

  14. Climate Change and Health on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Public Health Adaptation is Needed to Address Future Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisaveta P. Petkova

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on human health have been documented globally and in the United States. Numerous studies project greater morbidity and mortality as a result of extreme weather events and other climate-sensitive hazards. Public health impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast may be severe as the region is expected to experience increases in extreme temperatures, sea level rise, and possibly fewer but more intense hurricanes. Through myriad pathways, climate change is likely to make the Gulf Coast less hospitable and more dangerous for its residents, and may prompt substantial migration from and into the region. Public health impacts may be further exacerbated by the concentration of people and infrastructure, as well as the region’s coastal geography. Vulnerable populations, including the very young, elderly, and socioeconomically disadvantaged may face particularly high threats to their health and well-being. This paper provides an overview of potential public health impacts of climate variability and change on the Gulf Coast, with a focus on the region’s unique vulnerabilities, and outlines recommendations for improving the region’s ability to minimize the impacts of climate-sensitive hazards. Public health adaptation aimed at improving individual, public health system, and infrastructure resilience is urgently needed to meet the challenges climate change may pose to the Gulf Coast in the coming decades.

  15. Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2014-01-01

    In an urbanizing world economy featuring thousands of cities, households and firms have strong incentives to make locational investments and self protection choices to reduce their exposure to new climate change induced risks. This pursuit of self interest reduces the costs imposed by climate change. This paper develops a dynamic compensating differentials model to explore how the “menu” offered by a system of cities insures us against emerging risks. Insights from urban economics offer a ser...

  16. Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damien A Fordham

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.

  17. Assessing climate-change risks to cultural and natural resources in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatten, James R.; Waste, Stephen M.; Maule, Alec G.

    2014-01-01

    We provide an overview of an interdisciplinary special issue that examines the influence of climate change on people and fish in the Yakima River Basin, USA. Jenni et al. (2013) addresses stakeholder-relevant climate change issues, such as water availability and uncertainty, with decision analysis tools. Montag et al. (2014) explores Yakama Tribal cultural values and well-being and their incorporation into the decision-making process. Graves and Maule (2012) simulates effects of climate change on stream temperatures under baseline conditions (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios (increased air temperature of 1 °C and 2 °C). Hardiman and Mesa (2013) looks at the effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth with a bioenergetics model. Finally, Hatten et al. (2013) examines how changes in stream flow will affect salmonids with a rule-based fish habitat model. Our simulations indicate that future summer will be a very challenging season for salmonids when low flows and high water temperatures can restrict movement, inhibit or alter growth, and decrease habitat. While some of our simulations indicate salmonids may benefit from warmer water temperatures and increased winter flows, the majority of simulations produced less habitat. The floodplain and tributary habitats we sampled are representative of the larger landscape, so it is likely that climate change will reduce salmonid habitat potential throughout particular areas of the basin. Management strategies are needed to minimize potential salmonid habitat bottlenecks that may result from climate change, such as keeping streams cool through riparian protection, stream restoration, and the reduction of water diversions. An investment in decision analysis and support technologies can help managers understand tradeoffs under different climate scenarios and possibly improve water and fish conservation over the next century.

  18. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  19. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  20. The french researches on the climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scientists were the first to prevent decision makers on the risk of the climatic change bond to the greenhouse gases emissions. The results of the third GIEC report confirmed that the main part of the global warming of the last 50 years is due to the human activities. This document presents the major results of the french researches during the last five years: the planet observation, the climate evolution study, the simulation of the future climate, the climatic change in France, the impacts of the climatic change on the marine and earth biosphere, the climatic risks and the public policies, the health impacts, the 2003 heat and the research infrastructures. (A.L.B.)

  1. Climatic change and security stakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the relationships between climate change and security. Potential threats from climate change, as a unique source of stress or together with other factors, to human security are first examined. Some of the most explicit examples illustrate this section: food security, water availability, vulnerability to extreme events and vulnerability of small islands States and coastal zones. By questioning the basic needs of some populations or at least aggravating their precariousness, such risks to human security could also raise global security concerns, which we examine in turn, along four directions: rural exodus with an impoverishment of displaced populations, local conflicts for the use of natural resources, diplomatic tensions and international conflicts, and propagation to initially-unaffected regions through migratory flows. (authors)

  2. Influence of Climate Changes on Health (Review).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pop-Jordanova, Nada; Grigorova, Evgenija

    2015-01-01

    Although climate changes are one of the most serious public health risks for all nations, it appears that the medical society in the East European countries is not too much concerned. The aim of this paper is to point out the main treats on health provoked by climate changes. The literature review was the source of information. Based on the PubMed where in 2015 more than 65,000 papers were dedicated to different aspects of the influence of the climate changes on the human health, as well as 3,500 articles for the pediatric population, we present a review of the main health risks. Especially, the impact of the climate changes on the children's health is overviewed. In separate parts, the thermal stress, extreme weather events, changes of infection's pattern, how to measure health risks as well as some mitigation measures are discussed. PMID:27442405

  3. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  4. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  5. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  6. 气候风险视域下我国应对气候变化之法律进路%Legal channels of courtering climate change in visual field of climate risk in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟凰元; 张积储

    2014-01-01

    Along with the advent of risk society, climate risk events bring huge impacts on human social life. As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, facing the high probability of occurrence of climate risk, China falls into dilemma on the problem of courtering climate change. Existing laws still can not meet the needs of international obligations they assumed to courter climate change, hence, the legal channels of courtering climate change should be transformed further in China, the legal works of courtering climate change should be perfected, the courtering of climate change should be brought into legalized track, in order to comprehensively promote the legalized development of courtering climate change in China.%随着风险社会的到来,气候风险事件给人类的社会生活带来了巨大冲击。作为全球最大的温室气体排放国,面对气候风险发生的高可能性,我国在应对气候变化问题上陷入窘境。我国现有法律仍不能满足自身所承担的应对气候变化国际义务的需要,因此,我国应进一步转变应对气候变化的法律路径,完善应对气候变化的法律工作,把应对气候变化纳入法制化轨道,全面促进我国应对气候变化的法制化发展。

  7. Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-21

    Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.

  8. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  9. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  10. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  11. Dry-bean production under climate change conditions in the north of Argentina: Risk assessment and economic implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feijoo, M.; Mestre, F.; Castagnaro, A.

    1997-12-31

    This study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on Dry-bean production in Argentina, combining climate models, a crop productivity model and a yield response model estimation of climate variables on crop yields. The study was carried out in the North agricultural regions of Jujuy, Salta, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman which include the largest areas of Argentina where dry beans are grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). The results suggest that large climate change may have a negative impact on the Argentine agriculture sector, due to the high relevance of this product in the export sector. The difference negative effect depends on the varieties of dry bean and also the General Circulation Model scenarios considered for double levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

  12. Climate - Understanding climate change in order to act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a first part, the author proposes an overview of considerations about climate change and global warming. He discusses greenhouse gas emissions and their perspectives of evolution (IPCC scenarios, recent assessments, unreachable objectives). He comments and discusses the consequences and effects of climate change and global warming (impact on the biosphere and predictable consequences, the largely unknown issue of oceans). He comments the relationship between warming and meteorological evolutions (what is sure and what is not, what is due to climate change and what is not), and the associated risks and hazards

  13. Integrated development, risk management and community-based climate change adaptation in a mountain-plains system in Northern Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Wisner

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a preliminary analysis of work conducted along altitudinal gradients in the mountains and plains of northern Tanzania. We find evidence of a high degree of interdependence among groups of people of different language/cultural groups and socio-economic status interacting along environmental gradients from high to low altitude. We call this “socio-geographical adaptation” to climate change. However, our analysis and discussion adds complexity to any simple notion of “adaptation to climate change” since changes are multiple and adaptation is complex.

  14. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  15. Diagnosis Earth: The Climate Change Debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, William R. L.

    2010-01-01

    In the scrum of popular and political discourse on global warming, the scholarship of climate science is often left sitting on the sideline. Yet understanding the science and the scientists presents the best chance of developing an informed opinion about climate change. Confusion about the science, misunderstanding of risk assessment and…

  16. Andean highlands: Implications of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Seth, Anji; Thibeault, J.M.; García, Magali

    2007-01-01

    This presentation provides background on the SANREM CRSP project "Adapting to Change in the Andean Highlands: Practices and Strategies to Address Climate and Market Risks in Vulnerable Agro-Eco Systems" and discusses the means, variability and projections for the Altiplano climate. available in SANREM office, ESIILTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

  17. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  18. Perceptions of Australian marine protected area managers regarding the role, importance, and achievability of adaptation for managing the risks of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Cvitanovic

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The rapid development of adaptation as a mainstream strategy for managing the risks of climate change has led to the emergence of a broad range of adaptation policies and management strategies globally. However, the success of such policies or management interventions depends on the effective integration of new scientific research into the decision-making process. Ineffective communication between scientists and environmental decision makers represents one of the key barriers limiting the integration of science into the decision-making process in many areas of natural resource management. This can be overcome by understanding the perceptions of end users, so as to identify knowledge gaps and develop improved and targeted strategies for communication and engagement. We assessed what one group of environmental decision makers, Australian marine protected area (MPA managers, viewed as the major risks associated with climate change, and their perceptions regarding the role, importance, and achievability of adaptation for managing these risks. We also assessed what these managers perceived as the role of science in managing the risks from climate change, and identified the factors that increased their trust in scientific information. We do so by quantitatively surveying 30 MPA managers across 3 Australian management agencies. We found that although MPA managers have a very strong awareness of the range and severity of risks posed by climate change, their understanding of adaptation as an option for managing these risks is less comprehensive. We also found that although MPA managers view science as a critical source of information for informing the decision-making process, it should be considered in context with other knowledge types such as community and cultural knowledge, and be impartial, evidence based, and pragmatic in outlining policy and management recommendations that are realistically achievable.

  19. Risk Assessment of Drought Hazards based on Water Resource Vulnerability under Climate Change - A case study in Guangdong province, South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, D.; Chen, Y. D.

    2015-12-01

    The extreme climatic events are becoming more and more frequent and intensive owing to climate change. Droughts have caused a variety of problems and threats, such as water shortage, salinity intrusion, water quality deterioration, and etc., which can seriously hamper the rapid socio-economic development. The proposed study aims to develop a joint system of assessing the risk of drought hazards from physical dimension to the socioeconomic dimension. For the former dimension, the research will focus on characterizing the changing properties of droughts in both time and space. For the latter dimension, the water resource vulnerability will be assessed based on the typical regional water demanding and supply indicators. The combination research will enable us to not only advance the state-of-the-art of drought research, but also produce many results and findings for sustainable management and adaptation of water resources resilient to the changing climate and socioeconomic development in the Guangdong province.

  20. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  1. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  2. Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change

  3. Informing about Climate Change and Invasive Species: How the Presentation of Information Affects Perception of Risk, Emotions, and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otieno, Christine; Spada, Hans; Liebler, Katharina; Ludemann, Thomas; Deil, Ulrich; Renkl, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Environmental issues such as climate change are becoming ever more important in today's societies and politics. Information is spread by the media, for example, via the Internet or information brochures, employing different representational styles (e.g. sensational vs. neutral styles, emphasis of human vs. natural causes). We investigated the…

  4. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  5. Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.

  6. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natura...

  7. Climate Change in New York State Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 (Responding to Climate Change in New York State)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Solecki, William

    2014-01-01

    In its 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a greater than 95 percent chance that rising global average temperatures, observed since the mid-20th century, are primarily due to human activities. As had been predicted in the 1800s, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are now approximately 40 percent higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, have increased rapidly as well.

  8. AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN LAGOS, NIGERIA: NEEDS FOR PROACTIVE APPROACHES TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ADAPTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akinola A. Komolafe

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The significance of air pollution as one of the contemporary issues and accelerating factors that propel climate change in both developed and developing countries cannot be overemphasized. The problem of air pollution has seemingly become intractable with the incessant failure of both global and local environmental policies purportedly emplaced to address its devastating trend, particularly in growing megacities of the world. The devastating effects of the phenomenon are more pronounced in megacities of developing countries than in developed ones. Lagos, as an industrialized, commercialized and an emerging megacity in Nigeria, has been subjected to several predictions of the negative impacts of changing climatic conditions partly caused by ubiquitous air pollution. Efforts at stemming the tide of the increasing challenges of air pollution worldwide has significantly been thwarted by inadequate funding, hence the need to review the literature on the environmental implications of growing air pollution, its contributions to climate change and its negative impacts on the lives and properties of teeming inhabitants of Lagos. A review like this will provide a synthesis of knowledge and information on mitigative and adaptive measures that can be adopted to minimize the impacts of air pollution on the mega city.This study utilizes consciously selected and current literatures on the subject matter and found that Lagos inhabitants have been vulnerable to virtually all forms of damaging effects of climate change majorly propelled by seemingly uncontrollable air pollution. This implies that the situation requires proactive measures, otherwise, avoidable loss of lives and large scale destruction of properties may be inevitable. The paper therefore advocates involvement of all stakeholders in both mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change through enhancement of indigenous knowledge and creation of awareness among citizens about the need to be

  9. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review. PMID:22435190

  10. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  11. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  12. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought o...

  13. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  14. Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A risk-based methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels

    OpenAIRE

    Huibregtse, E.; Morales Napoles, O.; Hellebrandt, L.; D. Paprotny; S. De Wit

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding of a tunnel due to extreme rainfall. Novel techniques to describe both probability of occurrence and consequences of an event are integrated into the p...

  15. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah, L.; Roehrdanz, PR; Ikegami, M; Shepard, AV; Shaw; Tabor, G; Zhi, L; Marquet, PA; Hijmans, RJ

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticul...

  16. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  17. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith;

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  18. 作物气候风险研究:以河南省棉花为例%Changes of crop climate risk degree: a case study on cotton in Henan Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    千怀遂; 任玉玉; 李明霞

    2006-01-01

    The agricultural climate risk in the geographical transitional zones is very sensitive to climate change. Based on previous researches, this article established the cotton climate suitability model and the risk index to analyze the cotton climate risk degree in Henan Province. The result shows that, in the last 40 years, the cotton climate risk degree has a gradual increasing trend in which the precipitation plays a very important role, and the climate suitability and its deviation have different performances in the influence on the risk change in different phases; the increase rate of risk degree has significant regional and transitional characteristics, for example, from the eastern plain to the western mountains, the risk change rate becomes slower and slower, so the contrast between the central-southern Huang-Huai plain and the Funiu mountains is the most remarkable; and in the north-south direction, the contrast between the fast increase belt from the central-southern Huang-Huai plain to the middle Yellow River and the slow increase belt near the Yellow River is particularly remarkable, which is possibly the results of topographic and climatic transitional belt; and the risk change process also has obvious regional difference. For instance, abrupt change is an important characteristic in eastern Henan where this sudden change type has notable latitudinal difference, while in the western mountainous area it is very rare. Although the temperature change over the 40 years is still increasing in this area, the trend has reduced gradually since the end of the 1980s.

  19. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  20. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Progress Report (PDF, 11.3MB, May 2016) Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S. Climate change ... by 2050. Preparing for Increased Weather Risks Regional Climate Hubs In an effort to mitigate climate-related ...

  1. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  2. Climate change and shareholder value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During 2005, the Carbon Trust worked with Cairneagle Associates to develop a methodology for analysing shareholder value at risk from climate change. The model developed offers a robust, replicable, top-down approach to analysing such value at risk. In addition to a company's own energy linked ('direct' and electricity linked 'indirect') carbon emissions, it looks further along the value chain and considers broader potential risk. In calculating the financial impact, the analysis quantifies the potential impact on profits, using the shape of the business in 2004, but applying a potential 2013 emissions regulatory regime. 2013 was chosen as the first year after the end of the 2008-2012 Kyoto compliance period (which also equates to Phase Two in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). A major uncertainty is to what extent countries not currently regulated by the Kyoto Protocol (particularly the USA, India and China) will be brought into committed emission reduction targets from 2013. 2013 therefore represents the earliest year under this uncertain, but likely tougher, regulatory regime. However, although this report focuses on 2013, it needs to be recognised that, for many sectors, financial impacts will be seen significantly before this time. Ten 'case study companies' have been studied, from a range of sectors. In some cases, the 'case study company' analysed is strictly linked to a single company within that sector. In others, just a single corporate division has been reviewed, and in others yet again, characteristics from several companies have been combined to produce a more representative example. In order to enable analysis on a strictly like-for-like basis, the research has been based entirely upon public sources of information. This analysis illustrates what a determined shareholder (or other onlooker) could derive about value at risk from climate change, based upon what companies disclose today. A summary of the analysis for each sector case study is given, with

  3. Global food security under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidhuber, J.; Tubiello, F.N.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed s...

  4. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Flood risk in Urban Areas due to Combined Effects of Extreme Precipitation and Sea Surges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Climate change will impact the hydrological cycle greatly and lead to increases in flood hazards due to both pluvial and fluvial floods as well as sea surges in many regions. The impacts of the individual effects are analysed for a catchment in Greater Copenhagen. Based on both the present...... and anticipated future hazards the two most important hazards are found to be flash floods induced by precipitation and sea surges, respectively. The present and future extreme properties of these two variables are modelled by means of partial duration series with parameters that contains annual variations...... surges. Presently the most important hazard is due to extreme precipitation. However, due to climate change impacts the future most important hazard is due to sea surges. The increase in probability of floods is substantial over a 70 year horizon and actions must be taken to decrease either the hazards...

  6. FLOOD RISK FACTORS IN SUBURBAN AREA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION POLICIES – CASE STUDY OF WROCLAW, POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Szewrański

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncontrolled sprawl of urban development exerts environmental impact in rural areas. The aim of this study is to identify areas vulnerable to climate change in the context of implementation of policies adapting to climate change at the local level. Such areas can be defined as those where the negative implication of flesh flood overlapping with soil sealing is observed. The study areas composed of municipalities which are influenced by the urban sprawl process of the city of Wroclaw, Poland. The analyses were performed using publicly available spatial data from aerial orthophotomaps from 2004–2012, the satellite images; archival and current land use maps. The database CORINE 1990, 2000, 2006; Urban Atlas and geodatabase of the European Environment Agency were also of an important usage for this study.

  7. Managing and Mitigating the Health Risks of Climate Change: Calling for Evidence-Informed Policy and Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Ebi, Kristie; Olsen, Jorn

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Climate change affects many natural and social systems and processes that are essential for life. It disrupts the Earth’s life-support systems that underpin the world’s capacity to supply adequate food and fresh water, and it disturbs the eco-physical buffering against natural disasters. Epidemiologists need to develop and improve research and monitoring programs to better understand the scale and immediacy of the threat of climate change to human health and to act within a much larger and more comprehensive framework. To address one of the greatest environmental issues of our lifetime, the scientific and policy-making communities should work together to formulate evidence-informed public policy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to its inevitable impacts in this generation and, more importantly, in future generations to come. PMID:27689449

  8. Integrated development, risk management and community-based climate change adaptation in a mountain-plains system in Northern Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Ben Wisner; Eric Lovell; Adolfo Mascarenhas; Maingi Solomon; Daniel Weiner; Abubakari Munna; Gaurav Sinha; Charles Bwenge; Hubert Meena; Elisabeth Edna Wangui; Thomas A. Smucker; Pantaleo Munishi

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a preliminary analysis of work conducted along altitudinal gradients in the mountains and plains of northern Tanzania. We find evidence of a high degree of interdependence among groups of people of different language/cultural groups and socio-economic status interacting along environmental gradients from high to low altitude. We call this “socio-geographical adaptation” to climate change. However, our analysis and discussion adds complexity to any simple notion of “adaptat...

  9. Urban Growth and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2008-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2030, the share of the world's population that lives in cities is predicted to grow from 30% to 60%. This urbanization has consequences for the likelihood of climate change and for the social costs that climate change will impose on the world's quality of life. This paper examines how urbanization affects greenhouse gas production, and it studies how urbanites in the developed and developing world will adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

  10. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  11. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  12. Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Settele

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The overarching aim of the atlas is to communicate the potential risks of climatic change to the future of European butterflies. The main objectives are to: (1 provide a visual aid to discussions on climate change risks and impacts on biodiversity and thus contribute to risk communication as a core element of risk assessment; (2 present crucial data on a large group of species which could help to prioritise conservation efforts in the face of climatic change; (3 reach a broader audience through the combination of new scientific results with photographs of all treated species and some straight forward information about the species and their ecology. The results of this atlas show that climate change is likely to have a profound effect on European butterflies. Ways to mitigate some of the negative impacts are to (1 maintain large populations in diverse habitats; (2 encourage mobility across the landscape; (3 reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses; (4 allow maximum time for species adaptation; (4 conduct further research on climate change and its impacts on biodiversity. The book is a result of long-term research of a large international team of scientists, working at research institutes and non-governmental organizations, many within the framework of projects funded by the European Commission. Each chapter may be browsed/downloaded from the links below: 0. COVER, TITLE PAGE, CONTENTS [PDF, 608 KB] A. CLIMATE CHANGE, BIODIVERSITY, BUTTERFLIES, AND RISK ASSESSMENT [PDF, 208 KB] B. METHODOLOGY [PDF, 516 KB] C. CLIMATE RISKS OF EUROPEAN BUTTERFLY SPECIES. Introduction and Hesperidae [PDF, 5.6 MB]; Papilionidae [PDF, 1.61 MB]; Pieridae [PDF, 5.0 MB]; Lycaenidae, Riodinidae, Libytheidae [PDF, 12 MB]; Nymphalidae, Danaidae [PDF, 21.2 MB]; Non-modelled species and summary [PDF, 328 KB] D. DISCUSSION OF METHODOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS [PDF, 572 KB] E. OUTLOOK: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BUTTERFLY CONSERVATION [PDF, 228 KB] F. APPENDICES, REFERENCES AND INDEX [PDF, 424

  13. Focus Climate Talk on Managing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lefsrud, Lianne M.; Meyer, Renate

    2013-01-01

    In this opinion piece, the authors begin by asking whether is is possible that modern society's bitter political divisions over belief in human-induced climate change are distracting decision-makers from the far more practical matter of confronting the risk that it presents, directly or indirectly...

  14. Climate change - a natural hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kininmonth, William

    2003-07-01

    The impacts of weather and climate extremes (floods, storms, drought, etc) have historically set back development and will continue to do so into the future, especially in developing countries. It is essential to understand how future climate change will be manifest as weather and climate extremes in order to implement policies of sustainable development. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that natural processes have caused the climate to change and it is unlikely that human influences will dominate the natural processes. Any suggestion that implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will avoid future infrastructure damage, environmental degradation and loss of life from weather and climate extremes is a grand delusion. (Author)

  15. A Research on Climate Change Risk from a Metacognitive Perspective%元认知视野中的气候变化风险研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑璞; 郑友富; 俞国良

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most urgent issues that the whole world is facing.The "knowledge deficit theory",which has been used as the basis for government policy-making for many decades,is criticized for being too simple.Recently,some scholars put forward a new idea that there might be a link between one's metacognition of climate change and his/her pro-environmental attitude and behaviour(Scannell Grouzet,2010).Based on their and Petty's classification of metacognition,this article reviews recent studies and theories in four dimensions:the confidence in one's knowledge level about climate change risk(metacognition knowledge),the judgment one makes about where his/her ideas of climate change risk come from(metacognition origin),the judgment of the likelihood of a given climate change outcome(metacognition certainty) and the weight or importance one places on the cognition of climate change (metacognition importance) and finds;(1) There is often a mismatch between the public's actual knowledge and their metacognition knowledge.A lot of people,who are more or less overconfident in their knowledge level about climate change,may engage in actions which they believe are helpful but objectively are not,and hesitate to make further information-seeking effort.(2) Since climate change is a statistic trend,it is too hard to be detected by one's personal experience,most people learn about this kind of risk from climate scientists and their social amplifier's description,so the public's risk perception is mainly oriented by the analytic system rather than the experience system.The analytic system,which requires justification via logic and evidence,cannot create a sense of urgency and are unlikely to motivate immediate actions;and virtual reality technology used in some disaster movies does activate the experience system, but their effects still remain to be elucidated.(3) While reading climate change reports,people usually

  16. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  17. The Effect of Climatic Variations on Agricultural Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Parry, M.L.; Carter, T.R.

    1984-01-01

    The thesis of this paper is that impacts from climatic change can be evaluated effectively as changes in the frequency of short-term, anomalous climatic events. These can then be expressed as changes in the level of risk of impact from climatic extremes. To evaluate this approach, the risk of crop failure resulting from low levels of accumulated temperature is assessed for oats farming in southern Scotland. Annual accumulated temperatures are calculated for the 323-year long temperature recor...

  18. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change. PMID:18759775

  19. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  20. Striving to Reduce Vulnerability:Lessons from the Poor Community Livelihoodsin the Jakarta Bay Facing High Risk of Rapid Urbanization and Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayati, D.; Delinom, R. M.; Abdurachim, A. Y.; Dalimunthe, S.; Haba, J.; Pawitan, H.

    2014-12-01

    This paper discusses water-food issues in relation to how livelihoods of the poor community in Jakarta Bayarein high risk ofrapid urbanization and climate changes. As a part of the capital city of Indonesia, this area has experienced rapid increase in populationand extensive developments causing significant increase in the built up area. This city is unable to keep with demand on sewers, water and solid waste management, leading to settlement with concentrated slum pockets areas and widespread of flooding. The community is mostly poor people of productive group, live with urban pressure in fragile home and livelihoods.The situation becomes much worse due to the impact of climate change with flooding as the greatest climate and disaster risk. With lack of basic services, coastal water inundation (BanjirRob)commonly occursand floods the community housing areaswithout patternanymore. The community has lack of fresh and clean water sources and facedeconomic problem, particularly significant reduction of fishing activities. Coastal reclamation and water pollution from nearby industries are blamed as the main reason for these problems. Strategies therefore have to be developed, especially increasing community awareness and preparedness, and poverty alleviation, to sustain their livelihoods in this high risk urban area.

  1. Heat injury risk assessment for single-cropping rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Lin; Wang, Chunyi; Zhang, Jiquan

    2016-06-01

    Under global warming, the risk of heat injury for crops increases, which leads to increasing instability in agricultural production. In this study, based on phenological observation data and yield data during 1981-2011 and daily meteorological data during 1961-2011 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), the risk of heat injury for single-cropping rice in this area and its response to climate change were assessed and analyz