WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change response

  1. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  2. Climate Change and Corporate Environmental Responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Dewan Mahboob HOSSAIN; Chowdhury, M. Jahangir Alam

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, as an international environmental issue, is getting a lot of attention. The negative effects of climate change have become one of the most talked about issues among Governments, scientists, environmentalists and others. It is said that business activities are affecting the climate negatively. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the activities of the businesses should be controlled and encouraged to perform in a socially responsible manner. The article ...

  3. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  4. The response of glaciers to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, Elisabeth Jantina

    2003-01-01

    The research described in this thesis addresses two aspects of the response of glaciers to climate change. The first aspect deals with the physical processes that govern the interaction between glaciers and climate change and was treated by (1) studying the spatial and temporal variation of the glac

  5. Ecological response to global climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

  6. An ethical response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Geoffrey William Lamberton

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the ethical question of the responsibility of business organisations to respond to climate change. Ethical principles of ‘polluter pays‘, ‘historic culpability’ and ‘equitable distribution of the carbon budget’ are applied to the question of ‘should business respond to climate change’, using rights and utilitarian ethical analyses. An ethical argument is established for business organisations to decarbonise their production and distribution systems rather than delay action...

  7. An ethical response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoffrey William Lamberton

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ethical question of the responsibility of business organisations to respond to climate change. Ethical principles of ‘polluter pays‘, ‘historic culpability’ and ‘equitable distribution of the carbon budget’ are applied to the question of ‘should business respond to climate change’, using rights and utilitarian ethical analyses. An ethical argument is established for business organisations to decarbonise their production and distribution systems rather than delay action. Government policies required to remove barriers which are delaying a widespread and meaningful response by business to humankind’s greatest moral challenge together with the ethical implications are discussed.

  8. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  9. Climate change and our responsibilities as chemists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bassam Z. Shakhashiri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available For almost all of 4.5 billion years, natural forces have shaped Earth’s environment. But, during the past century, as a result of the Industrial Revolution, which has had enormous benefits for humans, the effects of human activities have become the main driver for climate change. The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by burning fossil fuels for energy to power the revolution causes an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing planetary emission. The imbalance is warming the planet and causing the atmosphere and oceans to warm, ice to melt, sea level to rise, and weather extremes to increase. In addition, dissolution of part of the carbon dioxide in the oceans is causing them to acidify, with possible negative effects on marine biota. As citizens of an interconnected global society and scientists who have the background to understand climate change, we have a responsibility first to understand the science. One resource that is available to help is the American Chemical Society Climate Science Toolkit, www.acs.org/climatescience. With this understanding our further responsibility as citizen scientists is to engage others in deliberative discussions on the science, to take actions ourselves to adapt to and mitigate human-caused climate change, and urge others to follow our example.

  10. Climate Change: Ethics and Collective Responsibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, K.; Brown, M. B.; Mann, M. E.; Lewandowsky, S.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change poses grave risks for societies and people all around the earth. Though details of the risks remain uncertain, they include accelerating sea level rise and ocean acidification, regional drought, floods and heat waves, crop failures and more: dangerous changes are already occurring, while GHG emissions continue to grow, ice melts, water expands, temperature rises, and weather patterns shift. Our roles as individuals and nations in producing the emissions of GHGs responsible for this episode of climate change, and the actions that could be taken to mitigate it, raise difficult ethical questions. When we are responsible for putting others in danger, we have a duty to mitigate that danger. But our sense of responsibility is diluted here: each individual act contributes only minutely to the overall risks, and the links between individual acts and the harms they produce are complex, indirect and involve many other agents. In these circumstances, our sense of personal responsibility is diminished and uncoordinated, individual responses to the risks become ineffective. We propose a view of the ethics of climate change that begins with the tragedy of the commons: Free use of a shared, indispensable resource can lead to catastrophe as the resource is overrun, and the destruction of the commons arises from choices that are individuallyrational, if each person's choice is made independently of others'. Finally, individuals often fail to make ethical choices when the links between individual actions and their negative outcomes are obscure, when individual choices are made separately and privately, and when special interests stand to gain from actions that are generally harmful. Philosophical work in ethics has emphasized the role of ethics in enabling cooperation between individuals and coordinating group responses to problems, while recent work on social rules has modeled them as generalized forbiddings, taught and enforced by 'blocking' behaviours which

  11. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  12. A dampened land use change climate response towards the tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molen, van der M.K.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Hazeleger, W.

    2011-01-01

    In climate simulations we find a pronounced meridional (equator to pole) gradient of climate response to land cover change. Climate response approaches zero in the tropics, and increases towards the poles. The meridional gradient in climate response to land cover change results from damping feedback

  13. Undocumented migration in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

    2016-01-01

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986–1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

  14. Comment 5 - agricultural response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The complex interrelationship between global climate change and agricultural production will become one of the most significant policy issues, in both developed and developing countries, in the first decades of the 21st century. Global and regional climate change will modify both agricultural production capacity and its location. And the intensity of agricultural production will contribute to environmental change at both the regional and global levels

  15. Responses of large mammals to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

    2014-01-01

    Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change. PMID:27583293

  16. Responses of large mammals to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

    2014-01-01

    Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.

  17. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas;

    2008-01-01

    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded...... and three out of five wader species, displayed significant direct density dependence. Only two species (sanderling and long-tailed skua) displayed dynamics characterised by delayed density dependence. The direct effects of previous winter's snow were related to over-wintering strategies of resident...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  18. What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sgrò, Carla M; Terblanche, John S; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2016-01-01

    Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory. PMID:26667379

  19. Climate change and our responsibilities as chemists

    OpenAIRE

    Bassam Z. Shakhashiri; Jerry A. Bell

    2014-01-01

    For almost all of 4.5 billion years, natural forces have shaped Earth’s environment. But, during the past century, as a result of the Industrial Revolution, which has had enormous benefits for humans, the effects of human activities have become the main driver for climate change. The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by burning fossil fuels for energy to power the revolution causes an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing planetary emission. The imbalance ...

  20. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  1. Eco-theological Responses to Climate Change in Oceania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubow, Cecilie; Bird, Cliff

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores eco-theological responses to climate change in Oceania. First, we review central texts in the contextual theological tradition in Oceania, focusing on recent responses to climate change. This points to a body of theological texts integrating climate change into a broader effort...... actors in the cultural modeling of climate change. We highlight the uniqueness of Christian narratives from the Pacific region, while alluding to the fact that literal interpretations of scriptures are influential in many other parts of the world too....

  2. The physician's response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarfaty, Mona; Abouzaid, Safiya

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will have an effect on the health and well-being of the populations cared for by practicing physicians. The anticipated medical effects include heat- and cold-related deaths, cardiovascular illnesses, injuries and mental harms from extreme weather events, respiratory illnesses caused by poor air quality, infectious diseases that emanate from contaminated food, water, or spread of disease vectors, the injuries caused by natural disasters, and the mental harm associated with social disruption. Within several years, such medical problems are likely to reach the doorsteps of many physicians. In the face of this reality, physicians should assume their traditional roles as medical professionals, health educators, and community leaders. Clinicians provide individual health services to patients, some of whom will be especially vulnerable to the emerging health consequences of global warming. Physicians also work in academic medical institutions and hospitals that educate and provide continuing medical education to students, residents, and practitioners. The institutions also produce a measurable carbon footprint. Societies of physicians at national, state, and local levels can choose to use their well-developed avenues of communication to raise awareness of the key issues that are raised by climate change as well as other environmental concerns that have profound implications for human health and well-being. PMID:19418286

  3. The physician's response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarfaty, Mona; Abouzaid, Safiya

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will have an effect on the health and well-being of the populations cared for by practicing physicians. The anticipated medical effects include heat- and cold-related deaths, cardiovascular illnesses, injuries and mental harms from extreme weather events, respiratory illnesses caused by poor air quality, infectious diseases that emanate from contaminated food, water, or spread of disease vectors, the injuries caused by natural disasters, and the mental harm associated with social disruption. Within several years, such medical problems are likely to reach the doorsteps of many physicians. In the face of this reality, physicians should assume their traditional roles as medical professionals, health educators, and community leaders. Clinicians provide individual health services to patients, some of whom will be especially vulnerable to the emerging health consequences of global warming. Physicians also work in academic medical institutions and hospitals that educate and provide continuing medical education to students, residents, and practitioners. The institutions also produce a measurable carbon footprint. Societies of physicians at national, state, and local levels can choose to use their well-developed avenues of communication to raise awareness of the key issues that are raised by climate change as well as other environmental concerns that have profound implications for human health and well-being.

  4. Corporate responses to climate change: the role of partnerships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Kolk; J. Pinkse; L. Hull van Houten

    2010-01-01

    This chapter relates to the NWO-funded research project "‘Getting down to business’: Economic responses to climate change," which studied the (potential) contribution of business to climate change mitigation and adaptation. After an introductory overview of the overall project and its main findings,

  5. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs

  6. Shrinking body size as an ecological response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Jennifer A.; Bickford, David

    2011-11-01

    Determining how climate change will affect global ecology and ecosystem services is one of the next important frontiers in environmental science. Many species already exhibit smaller sizes as a result of climate change and many others are likely to shrink in response to continued climate change, following fundamental ecological and metabolic rules. This could negatively impact both crop plants and protein sources such as fish that are important for human nutrition. Furthermore, heterogeneity in response is likely to upset ecosystem balances. We discuss future research directions to better understand the trend and help ameliorate the trophic cascades and loss of biodiversity that will probably result from continued decreases in organism size.

  7. Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions

  8. Financing Vietnam's Response to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment; World Bank Group; United Nations Development Programme

    2015-01-01

    Climate-related hazards have adverse effects on national growth and poverty reduction, affecting the poor and several sectors of the economy simultaneously. At its current rate of growth, Vietnam will become a major global greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. The Government of Vietnam initiated the Climate Public Expenditure and Investment Review (CPEIR) to advance an understanding of the current...

  9. A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

  10. Responsible investors acting on climate change. Investors acting on climate change. Climate: Investors take action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some investors are willing to lower the carbon emission financed by their investment, recognizing that climate change has financial impacts. At first they measure the carbon footprint of their portfolio, than initiate shareholder engagement actions at oil and gas companies, publish list of exclusion composed of the most carbon-intensive companies and ask for ex fossil fuels indices. In June 2015, Novethic launches the first actualisation of its study released on February 2015 on the mobilisation of investors on climate change over the whole 2015 year. The trend is gaining momentum since more than 200 additional investors publicly disclosed commitments to integrate climate risk into their investment and management practices. In September 2015, for its second update of the report on how investors are taking action on climate change, more than 800 entities were screened. As a key result, investor's actions gain momentum: approaches are growing in number and becoming more expert, divestments are widespread in Europe, and green investments promises are more ambitious. The last edition of November 2015 highlights and scans an exclusive panel of 960 investors worth Euro 30 trillion of assets who have made steps forward to tackle climate change. During the last 8 months, their number has almost increased twofold. This document brings together the first edition of Novethic's study and its three updates

  11. Long-term ecophysiological responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boesgaard, Kristine Stove; Ro-Poulsen, Helge

    Plant physiology is affected by climate change. Acclimations of photosynthetic processes are induced by short-term changes in climatic conditions. Further acclimation can be caused by longterm adjustments to climate change due to ecosystem-feedbacks. The aim of this PhD was to investigate plant...... are stable upon a wide range of seasonal and inter-annual variation. Longterm ecosystem adjustments after 6 years of treatments did not cause further physiological acclimation in either Deschampsia or Calluna. The study indicates robustness of the Danish heathland ecosystem to moderate climate change....... physiological responses to climate change in a seasonal and long-term perspective. The effects of elevated CO2, passive night time warming and periodic summer drought as single factor and in combination, on plant physiology were investigated in the long-term multifactorial field experiment CLIMAITE in a Danish...

  12. Responsible Climate Change Adaptation : Exploring, analysing and evaluating public and private responsibilities for urban adaptation to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mees, Heleen

    2014-01-01

    Cities are vulnerable to climate change. To deal with climate change, city governments and private actors such as businesses and citizens need to adapt to its effects, such as sea level rise, storm surges, intense rainfall and heatwaves. However, adaptation planning and action is often hampered when the relevant public and private actors have only vague and ambiguous responsibilities. Some exploration on the issue of public and private responsibilities has been undertaken in the literature, b...

  13. Novel competitors shape species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M; Diez, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan M

    2015-09-24

    Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for forecasting the future dynamics and distribution of pests, diseases and biological diversity. Although ecologists have long acknowledged species' direct physiological and demographic responses to climate, more recent work suggests that these direct responses can be overwhelmed by indirect effects mediated via other interacting community members. Theory suggests that some of the most dramatic impacts of community change will probably arise through the assembly of novel species combinations after asynchronous migrations with climate. Empirical tests of this prediction are rare, as existing work focuses on the effects of changing interactions between competitors that co-occur today. To explore how species' responses to climate warming depend on how their competitors migrate to track climate, we transplanted alpine plant species and intact plant communities along a climate gradient in the Swiss Alps. Here we show that when alpine plants were transplanted to warmer climates to simulate a migration failure, their performance was strongly reduced by novel competitors that could migrate upwards from lower elevation; these effects generally exceeded the impact of warming on competition with current competitors. In contrast, when we grew the focal plants under their current climate to simulate climate tracking, a shift in the competitive environment to novel high-elevation competitors had little to no effect. This asymmetry in the importance of changing competitor identity at the leading versus trailing range edges is best explained by the degree of functional similarity between current and novel competitors. We conclude that accounting for novel competitive interactions may be essential to predict species' responses to climate change accurately.

  14. Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutin, Stan; Lane, Jeffrey E

    2014-01-01

    Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made. PMID:24454546

  15. Responsibility for private sector adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Schneider

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007 indicates that vulnerable industries should adapt to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events along with slowly shifting mean annual temperatures and precipitation patterns, to prevent major damages or periods of inoperability in the future. Most articles in the literature on business management frame organizational adaptation to climate change as a private action. This makes adaptation the sole responsibility of a company, for its sole benefit, and overlooks the fact that some companies provide critical goods and services such a food, water, electricity, and medical care, that are so vital to society that even a short-term setback in operations could put public security at risk. This raises the following questions: (1 Who is responsible for climate change adaptation by private-sector suppliers of critical infrastructure? (2 How can those who are identified to be responsible, actually be held to assume their responsibility for adapting to climate change? These questions will be addressed through a comprehensive review of the literature on business management, complemented by a review of specialized literature on public management. This review leads to several conclusions. Even though tasks that formerly belonged to the state have been taken over by private companies, the state still holds ultimate responsibility in the event of failure of private-sector owned utilities, insofar as they are “critical infrastructure.” Therefore, it remains the state’s responsibility to foster adaptation to climate change with appropriate action. In theory, effective ways of assuming this responsibility, while enabling critical infrastructure providers the flexibility adapt to climate change, would be to delegate adaptation to an agency, or to conduct negotiations with stakeholders. In view of this theory, Germany will be used as a case study to demonstrate how private-sector critical

  16. Public health responses to climate change health impacts in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirawan, I Made Ady

    2010-01-01

    Although climate change is a global concern, there are particular considerations for Indonesia as an archipelagic nation. These include the vulnerability of people living in small islands and coastal areas to rising sea levels; the expansion of the important mosquito-borne diseases, particularly malaria and dengue, into areas that lack of immunity; and the increase in water-borne diseases and malnutrition. This article proposes a set of public health responses to climate change health impacts in Indonesia. Some important principles and practices in public health are highlighted, to develop effective public health approaches to climate change in Indonesia. PMID:20032032

  17. Adaptive thermoregulation in endotherms may alter responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Justin G; Seebacher, Frank; Smit, Ben; McKechnie, Andrew E

    2011-11-01

    Climate change is one of the major issues facing natural populations and thus a focus of recent research has been to predict the responses of organisms to these changes. Models are becoming more complex and now commonly include physiological traits of the organisms of interest. However, endothermic species have received less attention than have ectotherms in these mechanistic models. Further, it is not clear whether responses of endotherms to climate change are modified by variation in thermoregulatory characteristics associated with phenotypic plasticity and/or adaptation to past selective pressures. Here, we review the empirical data on thermal adaptation and acclimatization in endotherms and discuss how those factors may be important in models of responses to climate change. We begin with a discussion of why thermoregulation and thermal sensitivity at high body temperatures should be co-adapted. Importantly, we show that there is, in fact, considerable variation in the ability of endotherms to tolerate high body temperatures and/or high environmental temperatures, but a better understanding of this variation will likely be critical for predicting responses to future climatic scenarios. Next, we discuss why variation in thermoregulatory characteristics should be considered when modeling the effects of climate change on heterothermic endotherms. Finally, we review some biophysical and biochemical factors that will limit adaptation and acclimation in endotherms. We consider both long-term, directional climate change and short-term (but increasingly common) anomalies in climate such as extreme heat waves and we suggest areas of important future research relating to both our basic understanding of endothermic thermoregulation and the responses of endotherms to climate change.

  18. Behaviour and climate change : consumer perceptions of responsibility.

    OpenAIRE

    Wells, V.K.; Ponting, C.; Peattie, K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the under-researched notion of consumer responsibility, a potentially significant influence on consumer behaviour that marketers and policymakers may be able to harness as they attempt to respond to environmental challenges such as climate change. The paper uses data derived from a commercially motivated survey (n = 1513) to explore domestic consumption behaviours most closely associated with the issue of disruptive climate change. A measure of 'General Environmental Respo...

  19. Carbon Dynamics in Heathlands in Response to a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Pia Lund

    Climate is changing, and more adverse changes are expected in the future. Changes, caused by continuously rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses as CO2, will affect ecosystem processes and functions in the future and hence the cycling of carbon. The vaste amount of studies have...... focused on effects of climate change on aboveground biomass, less have been conducted on belowground biomass, and the thesis is one of few studies comprising both above- and belowground biomass and take interactions of climate change factors into account. To follow the fate of carbon in the ecosystem we...... no persistent changes over the years. Responses of aboveground and belowground biomass were coupled, and Deschampsia flexuosa showed high ability to adapt to treatments. As the major response was observed belowground, I further studied decomposition of fine roots. Fine roots of Deschampsia flexuosa from deep...

  20. Predicting the Response of Electricity Load to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Colman, Jesse [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kalendra, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-28

    Our purpose is to develop a methodology to quantify the impact of climate change on electric loads in the United States. We perform simple linear regression, assisted by geospatial smoothing, on paired temperature and load time-series to estimate the heating- and coolinginduced sensitivity to temperature across 300 transmission zones and 16 seasonal and diurnal time periods. The estimated load sensitivities can be coupled with climate scenarios to quantify the potential impact of climate change on load, with a primary application being long-term electricity scenarios. The method allows regional and seasonal differences in climate and load response to be reflected in the electricity scenarios. While the immediate product of this analysis was designed to mesh with the spatial and temporal resolution of a specific electricity model to enable climate change scenarios and analysis with that model, we also propose that the process could be applied for other models and purposes.

  1. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. PMID:26950769

  2. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses.

  3. On the response of valley glaciers to climatic change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    In many cases the response of a glacier to changing climatic conditions is complicated due to the large number of feedback loops that play a role. Examples are: ice thickness - mass balance feedback, nonlinearities arising from complicated geometry, dependence of ablation on glacier geometry, coupli

  4. RESPONSE AND FEEDBACKS OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past century is projected to cause a warming of the Earth. Climate Change predictions vary by region and terrestrial biosphere response, and feedbacks will be ecosystem specific. Forests play a major role in the Eart...

  5. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  6. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaver, T.L.; Clark, C.M.; Compton, J.E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C.P.; Band, L.E.; Baron, J. S.; Davidson, E.A.; Tague, C.L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J.A.; Herrick, J.D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C.L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  7. Western Mountain Initiative: predicting ecosystem responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jill S.; Peterson, David L.; Wilson, J.T.

    2008-01-01

    Mountain ecosystems of the western United States provide irreplaceable goods and services such as water, timber, biodiversity, and recreational opportunities, but their responses to climatic changes are complex and not well understood. The Western Mountain Initiative (WMI), a collaboration between USGS and U.S. Forest Service scientists, catalyzes assessment and synthesis of the effects of disturbance and climate change across western mountain areas, focusing on national parks and surrounding national forests. The WMI takes an ecosystem approach to science, integrating research across science disciplines at scales ranging from field studies to global trends.

  8. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H.; Bassett, Hannah R.

    2015-11-01

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society’s diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.

  9. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions. PMID:26564848

  10. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaver, T. L.; Clark, C. M.; Compton, J. E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C. P.; Band, L. E.; Baron, J. S.; Davidson, E. A.; Tague, C. L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J. A.; Herrick, J. D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C. L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

    2016-09-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  11. America's Climate Choices: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liverman, D. M.; McConnell, M. C.; Raven, P.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study examines information needs and recommends ways the federal government can better inform responses by enhancing climate change and greenhouse gas information and reporting systems and by improving climate communication and education. Demand for better information to support climate-related decisions has grown rapidly as people, organizations, and governments have moved ahead with plans and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change. To meet this demand, good information systems and services are needed. Without such systems, decision makers cannot evaluate whether particular policies and actions are achieving their goals or should be modified. Although the many non-federal efforts to reduce emissions and/or adapt to future climate changes carry considerable potential to reduce risks related to climate change, there is currently no comprehensive way to assess the effectiveness of those efforts. In addition, the diverse climate change responses to date have resulted in a patchwork of regional, state, and local policies that has prompted many state and business leaders to call for the development of a more predictable and coherent policy environment at the federal level. This report demonstrates that the nation lacks comprehensive, robust, and credible information and reporting systems to inform climate choices and evaluate their effectiveness. This report also argues that decision makers can benefit from a systematic and iterative framework for responding to climate change, in which decisions and policies can be revised in light of new information and experience and that improved information and reporting systems allow for ongoing evaluation of responses to climate risks. The

  12. Climate Change Responsibility and China's Endeavor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Huaqing; Yu Shengmin

    2011-01-01

    The problem of climate change is a global challenge. It is closely associated with social development and human survival, and it has a significant impact to all countries on energy develop- ment, economic competitiveness, technological innovation, and way of life. In recent years, with the rapid economic development in China, there is a rumor that the rapid growth of China's carbon dioxide emission offset the efforts of the international community in reducing emissions, and China should bear the international responsibility corresponding to its significant role in greenhouse gas emission, which obviously are unfair and not objective. As this paper reveals, "China environment responsibility" that is the socalled "China environment threat" or theories, China has made a positive contribution to addressing the climate change in the past and China will still be the backbone on the protection of global climate in the future.

  13. Coccolithophore calcification response to past ocean acidification and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dea, Sarah A; Gibbs, Samantha J; Bown, Paul R; Young, Jeremy R; Poulton, Alex J; Newsam, Cherry; Wilson, Paul A

    2014-11-17

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are forcing rapid ocean chemistry changes and causing ocean acidification (OA), which is of particular significance for calcifying organisms, including planktonic coccolithophores. Detailed analysis of coccolithophore skeletons enables comparison of calcite production in modern and fossil cells in order to investigate biomineralization response of ancient coccolithophores to climate change. Here we show that the two dominant coccolithophore taxa across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) OA global warming event (~56 million years ago) exhibited morphological response to environmental change and both showed reduced calcification rates. However, only Coccolithus pelagicus exhibits a transient thinning of coccoliths, immediately before the PETM, that may have been OA-induced. Changing coccolith thickness may affect calcite production more significantly in the dominant modern species Emiliania huxleyi, but, overall, these PETM records indicate that the environmental factors that govern taxonomic composition and growth rate will most strongly influence coccolithophore calcification response to anthropogenic change.

  14. Modelling hydrological responses of Nerbioi River Basin to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendizabal, Maddalen; Moncho, Roberto; Chust, Guillem; Torp, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Future climate change will affect aquatic systems on various pathways. Regarding the hydrological cycle, which is a very important pathway, changes in hydrometeorological variables (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) in first order impact discharges. The fourth report assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is evidence that the recent warming of the climate system would result in more frequent extreme precipitation events, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. Available research and climate model outputs indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99%). For example, it is likely that up to 20% of the world population will live in areas where river flood potential could increase by the 2080s. In Spain, within the Atlantic basin, the hydrological variability will increase in the future due to the intensification of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This might cause flood frequency decreases, but its magnitude does not decrease. The generation of flood, its duration and magnitude are closely linked to changes in winter precipitation. The climatic conditions and relief of the Iberian Peninsula favour the generation of floods. In Spain, floods had historically strong socio-economic impacts, with more than 1525 victims in the past five decades. This upward trend of hydrological variability is expected to remain in the coming decades (medium uncertainty) when the intensification of the positive phase of the NAO index (MMA, 2006) is considered. In order to adapt or minimize climate change impacts in water resources, it is necessary to use climate projections as well as hydrological modelling tools. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate and assess the hydrological response to climate changes in flow conditions in Nerbioi river

  15. Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity

    OpenAIRE

    Challinor, AJ; Parkes, B.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.

    2015-01-01

    Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis ...

  16. Policy Responses to Climate Change in Southeast Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Toth, F.L.

    1992-01-01

    This report presents an overview of and summarizes the general conclusions from a UNEP project conducted in Southeast Asia to identify socio-economic impacts of and policy responses to climate change. A series of agricultural crops, river basins, and coastal areas were selected in order to study the biophysical impacts, which were then traced through to the most heavily affected economic activities and social groups. Policy exercises were conducted in Malaysia and Indonesia to present the re...

  17. Pleistocene Climate, Phylogeny, and Climate Envelope Models: An Integrative Approach to Better Understand Species' Response to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    A Michelle Lawing; David Polly, P

    2011-01-01

    Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we sy...

  18. The demographic response to Holocene climate change in the Sahara

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Katie; Timpson, Adrian

    2014-10-01

    The timing and development of Holocene human occupation in the now hyperarid Sahara has major implications for understanding links between climate change, demography and cultural adaptation. Here we use summed probability distributions from 3287 calibrated 14C dates from 1011 archaeological sites to demonstrate a major and rapid demographic shift between 10,500 and 5500 years BP. This event corresponds with the African Humid Period (AHP) and is sub-continental in scale, indicating climate as the prime factor driving broad-scale population dynamics in northern Africa. Furthermore, by providing a high temporal resolution proxy for effective carrying capacity our population curve offers an independent estimate of environmental change in northern Africa, indicating a temporal delay in the terrestrial response to atmospheric climate change. These results highlight the degree to which human demography is a function of environment at the appropriate scale of observation in both time and space and sheds important new light on the social response to global environmental change.

  19. Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses in northern Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikkilae, M.

    2010-07-01

    Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses were studied using a combination of biological and physical indicators preserved in lake sediments. Low-frequency trends, high-frequency events and rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance were probed using pollenbased quantitative temperature reconstructions and oxygen-isotopes from authigenic carbonate and aquatic cellulose, respectively. Pollen and plant macrofossils were employed to shed light on the presence and response rates of plant populations in response to climate changes, particularly focusing on common boreal and temperate tree species. Additional geochemical and isotopic tracers facilitated the interpretation of pollen- and oxygen-isotope data. The results show that the common boreal trees (Betula sp., Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies) were present in the Baltic region (approx55 deg N) during the Lateglacial, which contrasts with the traditional view of species refuge locations in the south-European peninsulas during the glacial/ interglacial cycles. The findings of this work are in agreement with recent paleoecological and genetic evidence suggesting that scattered populations of tree species persisted at higher latitudes, and that these taxa were likely limited to boreal trees. Moreover, the results demonstrate that stepwise changes in plant communities took place in concert with major climate fluctuations of the glacial/interglacial transition. Postglacial climate trends in northern Europe were characterized by rise, maxima and fall in temperatures and related changes in moisture balance. Following the deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and the early Holocene reorganization of the ice-ocean-atmosphere system, the long-term temperature trends followed gradually decreasing summer insolation. The early Holocene (approx11,700-8000 cal yr BP) was overall cool, moist and oceanic, although the earliest Holocene effective humidity may have been low particularly in the eastern part of northern

  20. Farmer's response to changing climate in North East India

    Science.gov (United States)

    De, Utpal Kumar

    2015-02-01

    Diversification of land use in the cultivation of various crops provides an alternative way to moderate the climate risk. By choosing alternative crops that are resilient to various weather parameters, farmers can reduce the crop damage and achieve optimum output from their limited land resources. Apart from other adaptation measures, crop diversity can reflect farmers' response towards changing climate uncertainty. This paper tries to examine the changing climatic condition through spatio-temporal variation of two important weather variables (precipitation and temperature) in the largest North-East Indian state, Assam, since 1950. It is examined by the variation in crop diversification index. We have used (1) Herfindahl Index for measuring degree of diversification and (2) locational quotient for measuring the changes in the regional crop concentration. The results show that, in almost all the districts, crop specialization has been taking place slowly and that happened mostly in the last phase of our study. The hilly and backward districts recorded more diversification but towards lower value crops. It goes against the normal feature of crop diversification where farmers diversify in favour of high value crops. Employing ordinary least squares method and/or Fixed Effect model, irrigation is found to have significant impact on crop diversification; while the flood plain zones and hill zones are found to have better progress in this regard, which has been due to the survival necessity of poor farmers living the zone. Thus crop diversity does not reflect very significant response from the farmers' side towards changing weather factors (except rainfall) though they have significant impact on the productivity of various crops, and thus profitability. The study thus suggests the necessity for rapid and suitable diversification as alternative climate change mitigation in the long run.

  1. Climate change and the importance of empowering citizens : Science teachers' beliefs about educational response in Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Maharjan, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Educational response to climate change is one of the measures to prepare people to combat climate change. This thesis explores the lived experiences of secondary Science teachers from Kathmandu Valley on the perception of climate change, the way they handled climate change issues in the classroom setting, the problems and challenges they came across in climate change communication in the classrooms and the relevance of existing secondary Science curriculum in relation to climate change. The t...

  2. Climate Change and the Concept of Shared Responsibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinsen, Franziska; Seibt, Johanna

    2013-01-01

    the spatial to the temporal dimension of such wide-scope results of individual actions. This shift from ‘global ethics’ to ‘intergenerational ethics’ and, in particular, ‘climate ethics’ requires some new analytical concepts, however. In this paper we provide a definition of wide-scope responsibility geared...... to articulate our moral concerns about emergent effects in complex systems, such as climate change. Working from Iris Marion Young’s “social connection model of responsibility”, we present a notion of shared ecological responsibility with global and intergenerational scope. We show that our account...... is not affected by the so-called non-identity objection to intergenerational ethics. Since we work from an action-theoretic rather than normative perspective, our account is ‘ethically parametrized’ in the sense that it can be combined with different conceptions of structural and intergenerational justice...

  3. Responses of vegetation growth to climate change in china

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Zhou, T.

    2015-04-01

    Global warming-related climate changes have significantly impacted the growth of terrestrial vegetation. Quantifying the spatiotemporal characteristic of the vegetation's response to climate is crucial for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation. In this study, we employed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) that was calculated for various time scales (1 to 12 months) from monthly records of mean temperature and precipitation totals using 511 meteorological stations in China to study the response of vegetation types to droughts. We separated the NDVI into 12 time series (one per month) and also used the SPEI of 12 droughts time scales to make the correlation. The results showed that the differences exist in various vegetation types. For needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland, they responded to droughts at long time scales (9 to 12 months). For grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation, they responded to droughts at short time scales (1 to 5months). The positive correlations were mostly found in arid and sub-arid environments where soil water was a primary constraining factor for plant growth, and the negative correlations always existed in humid environments where temperature and radiation played significant roles in vegetation growth. Further spatial analysis indicated that the positive correlations were primarily found in northern China, especially in northwestern China, which is a region that always has water deficit, and the negative correlations were found in southern China, especially in southeastern China, that is a region has water surplus most of the year. The disclosed patterns of spatiotemporal responses to droughts are important for studying the impact of climate change to vegetation growth.

  4. Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is

  5. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelson, G.C.; Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Havlik, P.; Ahammad, H.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lampe, von M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Croz, d' D.M.; Meijl, van H.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Muller, C.; Popp, A.; Robertson, R.; Robinson, S.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.A.; Willenbockel, D.

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and

  6. Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

  7. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  8. Response of Groundwater to Climate Change under Extreme Climate Conditions in North China Plain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ying Zhang; Jincui Wang; Jihong Jing; Jichao Sun

    2014-01-01

    The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the water shortage areas of China. Lack of water resources restricted the economic and social development of North China area and resulted in deterio-ration of ecosystem and natural environment. Influenced by the climate change and human activities, the water circulation of NCP was largely changed and the crisis of water resources was aggravated. Therefore, it is important to study the features of the extreme climate and the response mechanism of groundwater to climate change. We analyzed the trend of climate change and extreme climate features in the past 60 years based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations. And then the response characteristics of groundwater to climate change were discussed. The average temperature of NCP was in an obviously upward trend. The overall precipitation variation was in a downward trend. The cli-mate change in this area showed a warming-drying trend. The intensity of extreme precipitation dis-played a trend of declining and then increasing from north to south as well as declining from eastern coastal plain to the piedmont plain. Grey correlation degree analysis indicated that groundwater depth had a close relationship with precipitation and human activities in NCP. The response of groundwater level to precipitation differed from the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain to the coastal plain. The response was more obvious in the coastal plain than the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain and the middle plain. The precipitation influenced the groundwater depth both directly and indirectly. Under the condition of extreme precipitation, the impact would aggravate, in the forms of rapid or lag raise of groundwater levels.

  9. Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J. M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Betancourt, J. L.; Travers, S. E.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Davies, T. J.; Kraft, N. J. B.; Ault, T. R.; Bolmgren, K.; Mazer, S. J.; McCabe, G. J.; McGill, B. J.; Parmesan, C.; Salamin, N.; Schwartz, M. D.; Cleland, E. E.

    2012-01-01

    Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

  10. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Allen, Jenica M.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Travers, Steven E.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Ault, Toby R.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Cleland, Elsa E.

    2012-01-01

    Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

  11. Stationary monitoring of glacier response to climate change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Jiawen; Li, Zhongqin; Qin, Xiang; He, Yuanqing; He, Xiaobo; Li, Huilin

    2016-04-01

    At present, there are about 48571 glaciers with a total area of about 51.8×103 km2 and a volume of about 5.6×103 km3 in China. They are distributed widely in the high mountains in and surrounding the Tibetan Plateau and other high mountains such as Tianshan, Altay and Pamir. In view of differences in climatic conditions and glacier types, stationary monitoring of the glacier variations has been ongoing in different regions in order to investigate the glacier response to climate change. The monitoring results show that all the monitoring glaciers have been in retreat during the past decades and especially since 1990's the retreat rate has an accelerating trend. The accumulative mass balance is much negative and has a large annual variability for the monsoonal maritime glaciers in comparison with the continental and sub-continental glaciers. Under climate warming background, the acceleration of glacier melting is mainly attributed to rise in air temperature, ice temperature augment and albedo reduction of glacier surface. Particularly, the albedo reduction has a positive feedback effect on the glacier melting. Based on long term observation of glacier variations and physical properties, a simple dynamics model is coupled with mass balance modeling to make a projection of a typical glacier change in future. The primary modeling results suggest that the glacier will continue in shrinkage until vanishing within 50-90 years.

  12. Complex response of the forest nitrogen cycle to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Bernal, Susana; Hedin, L. O.; Likens, G. E.; Gerber, S; D. Buso

    2012-01-01

    Climate exerts a powerful influence on biological processes, but the effects of climate change on ecosystem nutrient flux and cycling are poorly resolved. Although rare, long-term records offer a unique opportunity to disentangle effects of climate from other anthropogenic influences. Here, we examine the longest and most complete record of watershed nutrient and climate dynamics available worldwide, which was collected at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United State...

  13. A Systems Perspective on Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires respons...

  14. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm managemen

  15. Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCain, Christy; Szewczyk, Tim; Bracy Knight, Kevin

    2016-06-01

    The rush to assess species' responses to anthropogenic climate change (CC) has underestimated the importance of interannual population variability (PV). Researchers assume sampling rigor alone will lead to an accurate detection of response regardless of the underlying population fluctuations of the species under consideration. Using population simulations across a realistic, empirically based gradient in PV, we show that moderate to high PV can lead to opposite and biased conclusions about CC responses. Between pre- and post-CC sampling bouts of modeled populations as in resurvey studies, there is: (i) A 50% probability of erroneously detecting the opposite trend in population abundance change and nearly zero probability of detecting no change. (ii) Across multiple years of sampling, it is nearly impossible to accurately detect any directional shift in population sizes with even moderate PV. (iii) There is up to 50% probability of detecting a population extirpation when the species is present, but in very low natural abundances. (iv) Under scenarios of moderate to high PV across a species' range or at the range edges, there is a bias toward erroneous detection of range shifts or contractions. Essentially, the frequency and magnitude of population peaks and troughs greatly impact the accuracy of our CC response measurements. Species with moderate to high PV (many small vertebrates, invertebrates, and annual plants) may be inaccurate 'canaries in the coal mine' for CC without pertinent demographic analyses and additional repeat sampling. Variation in PV may explain some idiosyncrasies in CC responses detected so far and urgently needs more careful consideration in design and analysis of CC responses. PMID:26725404

  16. 77 FR 76034 - National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-26

    ... mission, the National Water Program will need to adapt to already observed and projected climatic changes... AGENCY National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change AGENCY: Environmental Protection... publishing the final ``National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change'' (2012...

  17. Biogeochemical responses of shallow coastal lagoons to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, A.; Newton, A.; Tett, P.; Fernandes, T.

    2009-04-01

    carefully monitored so that appropriate responses can be timely to mitigate the impacts from global change. References: Eisenreich, S.J. (2005). Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - A report to the European Water Directors. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Comission-Joint Research Centre. Ispra, Italy. 253pp. Kerr, R. (2008). Global warming throws some curves in the Atlantic Ocean. Science, 322, 515. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., Miller, H. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996pp. Lloret, J., Marín, A., Marín-Guirao, L. (2008). Is coastal lagoon eutrophication likely to be aggravated by global climate change? Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 78, 403-412. Snoussi, M., Ouchani, T., Niazi, S. (2008). Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 77, 206-213.

  18. Venezuelan policies and responses on climate change and natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponi, Claudio; Rosales, Anibal

    1992-06-01

    Venezuela is an intertropical country which has the fortune not to suffer the severities of natural hazards which are usual in other countries of this region. It is a developing country, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil production and exports. Its greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low, but it is expected that the planned industrialization development will bring an associated increase in emissions. As a nation, Venezuela has a highly developed environmental consciousness. The Ministry of environment, the first in Latin America, was created in 1977, and has been the main contributor to the national policy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction. As in many developing countries actions and responses in this regard have been rather limited in scope, and even though legislation has been developed, many problems arise for its enforcement. Several local warning systems, civil defense procedures, and infrastructural protection measures are operational, however they have not been designed, revised, or planned taking into consideration the potential impacts of climate change. Presently Venezuela is an active participant state in the negotiation for a framework convention on climate change. That is a very difficult negotiation for our country. Here we have to conciliate enviromental principles with national economic interests. The elements of our position in this contex are presented in this statement.

  19. Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgeson, Lucien; Maslin, Mark; Poessinouw, Martyn; Howard, Steve

    2016-06-01

    Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined `adaptation economy', we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city's gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from #15 million to #1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies.

  20. Responsible Climate Change Adaptation : Exploring, analysing and evaluating public and private responsibilities for urban adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mees, Heleen

    2014-01-01

    Cities are vulnerable to climate change. To deal with climate change, city governments and private actors such as businesses and citizens need to adapt to its effects, such as sea level rise, storm surges, intense rainfall and heatwaves. However, adaptation planning and action is often hampered when

  1. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  2. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  3. Response of Mycorrhizal Diversity to Current Climatic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen E. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Form and function of mycorrhizas as well as tracing the presence of the mycorrhizal fungi through the geological time scale are herein first addressed. Then mycorrhizas and plant fitness, succession, mycorrhizas and ecosystem function, and mycorrhizal resiliency are introduced. From this, four hypotheses are drawn: (1 mycorrhizal diversity evolved in response to changes in Global Climate Change (GCC environmental drivers, (2 mycorrhizal diversity will be modified by present changes in GCC environmental drivers, (3 mycorrhizal changes in response to ecological drivers of GCC will in turn modify plant, community, and ecosystem responses to the same, and (4 Mycorrhizas will continue to evolve in response to present and future changes in GCC factors. The drivers of climate change examined here are: CO2 enrichment, temperature rise, altered precipitation, increased N-deposition, habitat fragmentation, and biotic invasion increase. These impact the soil-rhizosphere, plant and fungal physiology and/or ecosystem(s directly and indirectly. Direct effects include changes in resource availability and change in distribution of mycorrhizas. Indirect effects include changes in below ground allocation of C to roots and changes in plant species distribution. GCC ecological drivers have been partitioned into four putative time frames: (1 Immediate (1–2 years impacts, associated with ecosystem fragmentation and habitat loss realized through loss of plant-hosts and disturbance of the soil; (2 Short-term (3–10 year impacts, resultant of biotic invasions of exotic mycorrhizal fungi, plants and pests, diseases and other abiotic perturbations; (3 Intermediate-term (11–20 year impacts, of cumulative and additive effects of increased N (and S deposition, soil acidification and other pollutants; and (4 Long-term (21–50+ year impacts, where increased temperatures and CO2 will destabilize global rainfall patterns, soil properties and plant ecosystem resilience. Due

  4. The Gaia Commission: Climate Change and Moral Responsibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwyer, James

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This short story is set in the future. In it, Francis, a retired professor of bioethics, is scheduled to appear before the Gaia Commission to account for his carbon emissions. Because his carbon emissions contributed to climate change, which harmed people and destroyed ecosystems, he is charged with recklessness, negligence, and indifference. He seems to have lived a modest and responsible life, except for the carbon emissions that he generated by flying long distances to attend ethics conferences and to give lectures. The narrator of the story is assigned to defend Francis before the Gaia Commission, so he contacts Francis to learn more about the case and to prepare a defense. The two of them examine Francis’ conduct and thinking. This fictional account raises ethical issues for all of us who have high carbon footprints, but especially for those of us who work in bioethics.

  5. A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien;

    2016-01-01

    associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionaryresponse to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into modelspredicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change...

  6. An Insurance-Led Response to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Webster, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This has the undesirable consequence of increasing insurance costs, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate change. This is unfortunate because insurance provides a financial mechanism that mitigates some of the consequences of climate change, allowing damage from increasingly frequent events to be repaired. We observe that the insurance industry could reclaim any increase in claims due to climate change, by increasing the insurance premiums on energy producers for example, without needing government intervention or a new tax. We argue that this insurance-led levy must acknowledge both present carbon emissions and a modern industry's carbon inheritance, that is, to recognise that fossil-fuel driven industrial growth has provided the innovations and conditions needed for modern civilisation to exist and develop. The increases in premiums would initially b...

  7. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  8. A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

    2016-07-01

    Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. PMID:27109012

  9. Individual and Collective Responsiveness to Climate Change: A Response to Dwyer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macpherson, Cheryl C

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available James Dwyer’s story about a fictional GAIA Commission highlighted unresolved concerns about the scope of bioethics, specifically regarding the global distribution of, and responsibility for, the health impacts of climate change. This commentary discusses the potential impact of an individual on greenhouse gas emissions and the importance of engaging institutional responses in order to have meaningful impacts.

  10. Fisheries management responses to climate change in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Thomas Talund; Hoff, Ayoe; Frost, Hans S.

    2015-01-01

    plan may be needed. Therefore, this paper investigates the economic impacts of managing the cod, sprat and herring stocks in the eastern Baltic Sea, given on-going climate change, which is known to affect cod recruitment negatively. It is shown that climate change may have severe biological...... scenarios in which the economic consequences of different management objectives for the fishing fleets are assessed through a dynamic multi-species and multi-fleet bio-economic assessment model that include both species interactions and climate change.......The long term management plan for cod in the eastern Baltic Sea was introduced in 2007 to ensure the full reproductive capacity of cod and an economically viable fishing industry. If these goals are to be fulfilled under changing environmental conditions, a readjustment of the current management...

  11. Complex response of the forest nitrogen cycle to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernal, Susana; Hedin, Lars O; Likens, Gene E; Gerber, Stefan; Buso, Don C

    2012-02-28

    Climate exerts a powerful influence on biological processes, but the effects of climate change on ecosystem nutrient flux and cycling are poorly resolved. Although rare, long-term records offer a unique opportunity to disentangle effects of climate from other anthropogenic influences. Here, we examine the longest and most complete record of watershed nutrient and climate dynamics available worldwide, which was collected at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States. We used empirical analyses and model calculations to distinguish between effects of climate change and past perturbations on the forest nitrogen (N) cycle. We find that climate alone cannot explain the occurrence of a dramatic >90% drop in watershed nitrate export over the past 46 y, despite longer growing seasons and higher soil temperatures. The strongest climate influence was an increase in soil temperature accompanied by a shift in paths of soil water flow within the watershed, but this effect explained, at best, only ∼40% of the nitrate decline. In contrast, at least 50-60% of the observed change in the N export could be explained by the long-lasting effect of forest cutting in the early 1900s on the N cycle of the soil and vegetation pools. Our analysis shows that historic events can obscure the influence of modern day stresses on the N cycle, even when analyses have the advantage of being informed by 0.5-century-long datasets. These findings raise fundamental questions about interpretations of long-term trends as a baseline for understanding how climate change influences complex ecosystems. PMID:22331889

  12. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menzel, A.; Sparks, T.; Estrella, N.; Koch, E.; Aasa, A.; Ahas, R.; Alm-Kübler, K.; Bissolli, P.; Braslavska, O.; Briede, A.; Chmielewski, F.M.; Crepinsek, Z.; Curnel, Y.; Dahl, A.; Defila, C.; Donnelly, A.; Filella, Y.; Jatczak, K.; Mage, F.; Mestre, A.; Nordli, O.; Penuelas, J.; Pirinen, P.; Remisova, V.; Scheifinger, H.; Striz, M.; Susnik, A.; Vliet, van A.J.H.; Wielgolaski, F.E.; Zach, S.; Zust, A.

    2006-01-01

    Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions considered responsible for climate change: Environmental indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper concerns the more significant environmental indicators related to the emissions of radiatively and chemically/photochemically active trace gases. Reference is made to the preliminary work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to the proposals made in the framework of the international negotiation on climate change. Aiming to contribute to the definition of a national strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, this paper proposes a possible application of the indicators. The calculation of the indicators is based on the emission estimate performed by ENEA (Italian National Agency for Energy, New Technologies and the Environment) for the Report on the State of the Environment edited by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. Finally, the paper suggests an application of such indicators for the international negotiation, in the framework of the Italian proposal for the Convention on climate change

  14. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Kathleen B; Manker, Craig R; Pigati, Jeffrey S

    2015-11-24

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated (14)C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

  15. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Kathleen B; Manker, Craig R; Pigati, Jeffrey S

    2015-11-24

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated (14)C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

  16. Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species' responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mair, Louise; Hill, Jane K.; Fox, Richard; Botham, Marc; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D.

    2014-02-01

    There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species' geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming. Here we show that the relative importance of species' abundance trends and habitat availability for British butterfly species vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the subset of species with stable abundances from the mid-1990s to 2009, when abundance trends were generally declining. This suggests that stable (or positive) abundance trends are a prerequisite for range expansion. Given that species' abundance trends vary over time for non-climatic as well as climatic reasons, assessment of abundance trends will help improve predictions of species' responses to climate change, and help us to understand the likely success of different conservation strategies for facilitating their expansions.

  17. Climate change compromises the immune response of maize

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maize is by quantity the most important C4 cereal crop in the US; however, future climate changes are expected to increase maize susceptibility to mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens and reduce productivity. While rising atmospheric [CO2] is a driving force behind the warmer temperatures and drought, whi...

  18. Soil management challenges in response to climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agriculture has tremendous potential to help solve global food, feed, fiber, and bioenergy challenges and respond to changing climatic conditions provided we do not compromise our soil, water and air resources. This presentation will examine soil management, defined by the Soil Science Society of Am...

  19. Psychological responses to the proximity of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brügger, Adrian; Dessai, Suraje; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Morton, Thomas A.; Pidgeon, Nicholas F.

    2015-12-01

    A frequent suggestion to increase individuals' willingness to take action on climate change and to support relevant policies is to highlight its proximal consequences, that is, those that are close in space and time. But previous studies that have tested this proximizing approach have not revealed the expected positive effects on individual action and support for addressing climate change. We present three lines of psychological reasoning that provide compelling arguments as to why highlighting proximal impacts of climate change might not be as effective a way to increase individual mitigation and adaptation efforts as is often assumed. Our contextualization of the proximizing approach within established psychological research suggests that, depending on the particular theoretical perspective one takes on this issue, and on specific individual characteristics suggested by these perspectives, proximizing can bring about the intended positive effects, can have no (visible) effect or can even backfire. Thus, the effects of proximizing are much more complex than is commonly assumed. Revealing this complexity contributes to a refined theoretical understanding of the role that psychological distance plays in the context of climate change and opens up further avenues for future research and for interventions.

  20. Plant molecular stress responses face climate change. Trends in Plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahuja, I.; Vos, de R.C.H.; Bones, A.M.; Hall, R.D.

    2010-01-01

    Environmental stress factors such as drought, elevated temperature, salinity and rising CO2 affect plant growth and pose a growing threat to sustainable agriculture. This has become a hot issue due to concerns about the effects of climate change on plant resources, biodiversity and global food secur

  1. The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bindi, Marco; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2011-01-01

    and in the south of European Russia. The consequences on the European agricultural ecosystems are likely to vary widely depending on the cropping system being investigated (i.e. cereals vs. forage crops vs. perennial horticulture), the region and the likely climate changes. In northern Europe, increases in yield...

  2. Business responses to climate change : identifying emergent strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Kolk; J. Pinkse

    2005-01-01

    In the absence of sufficient support for the Kyoto Protocol, the international policy arena on climate change is far removed from being a 'level playing field'. Companies thus face much uncertainty about the competitive effects of the Protocol and (upcoming) regulatory measures. This means that the

  3. The evolution of multinationals' responses to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Kolk; J. Pinkse

    2005-01-01

    Climate change is one of the environmental issues that has increasingly attracted business attention in the course of the 1990s. While public and policy interest started already in the late 1980s, leading to a first international agreement at the Rio-conference in 1992, the main driver for corporate

  4. The History of Germany's Response to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavender, Jeannine; Jager, Jill

    1993-01-01

    Traces the history of the German climate change debate in the last 50 years and discusses the forces and events that shaped it. Examines the way in which scientists, the government, industry, nongovernmental organizations, and the media entered into and influenced the debate. (54 references) (MDH)

  5. Why responses to dramatic climate change are important?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Anders Pape Mφller

    2011-01-01

    @@ Climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented pace with global temperatures and sea-levels setting new records almost every year (IPCC, 2007).While these changes are worrisome due to effects on all biological systems and hence also on humans, even more problematic changes may be in the waiting, because not only is the climate changing, but it is also becoming more extreme.Extreme temperatures, rainfall, droughts, storms and fires are already becoming more common with severe consequences for humans, their crops and domestic animals and all wild organisms.For example, the severe heat wave in 2003 caused an excess mortality of 2,600 humans in France alone (INSERM, 2003), and primary production was suppressed across Europe (Ciais et al.2004).

  6. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  7. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  8. Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A

    2014-01-01

    Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data.

  9. Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sean L; Venter, Oscar; Jones, Kendall R; Watson, James E M

    2015-10-01

    The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation.

  10. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.;

    2015-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS...

  11. Business Responses to Climate Change. Identifying Emergent Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2005-07-01

    Companies face much uncertainty about the competitive effects of the recently adopted Kyoto Protocol on global climate change and the current and future regulations that may emerge from it. Companies have considerable discretion to explore different market strategies to address global warming and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This article examines these strategic options by reviewing the market-oriented actions that are currently being taken by 136 large companies that are part of the Global 500. There are six different market strategies that companies use to address climate change and that consist of different combinations of the market components available to managers. Managers can choose between more emphasis on improvements in their business activities through innovation or employ compensatory approaches such as emissions trading. They can either act by themselves or work with other companies, NGOs, or (local) governments.

  12. Corporate Response to Climate Change: What do Stakeholders Expect?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S.V. Prasad

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines different perceptions on climate change management and disclosuresfrom the viewpoint of stakeholders in Indian Corporations. The paper shows how climatechange strategies and disclosures at different organizational levels can be linked to thesocietal and competitive contexts that companies face, embedded in a stakeholder view.Companies are divided according to certain attributes - location, geographical spread,industry, degree of vertical integration and diversification, companies prioritizing particularstakeholder groups, and their climate change strategies and disclosures including internalmeasures, supply-chain measures and/or market-based measures that move beyond the supplychain are analyzed.This paper attempts to illustrate how institutional, resource-based, supply chain andstakeholder views are all important to characterize and understand corporate strategicresponses to a sustainability issue.

  13. Implications of and possible responses to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahiluoto, Helena; Rötter, Reimund

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity and seriously undermines rural development prospects. It makes it harder to achieve the Millenium Development Goals and ensure a sustainable future beyond 2015. Findings from the recent 4th assessment report of IPCC, Working Group II indicate that already towards 2050 with respect to food crops yield losses between 10 and 30 % can be expected as compared to current conditions in large parts of Africa, including Western, Eastern and southern...

  14. 21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

    OpenAIRE

    Marčelja, Stjepan

    2015-01-01

    Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fai...

  15. Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems’ Net Primary Productivity to Future Regional Climate Change in China

    OpenAIRE

    Dongsheng Zhao; Shaohong Wu; Yunhe Yin

    2013-01-01

    The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future clim...

  16. Response of European yews to climate change: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Thomas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Being the longest-lived of all European trees, capable of living significantly over 2,000 years, yew is highly likely to be negatively affected by climate change; this paper explores the changes in distribution and abundance. Main results: Yew is unlikely to migrate north due to its slow rate of invasion, its disjunct soil needs and an inability to cope with the expected rate of climate change. It will, however, retreat from the southern end of its range in Spain due to increased evapotranspiration allied to reduced rainfall. In the south, increased drought will be exacerbated by extreme drought and increased fire frequency. In drier areas at the northern edge of its range, yew will decline where growing on well-drained limestone outcrops with little shelter from the sun (increased evaporation and reduced water availability due to limited root spread.  On wetter northern sites, yew should find better climatic conditions but will be slow to invade new areas due to poorer reproduction affected by reduced pollen production, population fragmentation and limited seed movement. Overall, without our intervention, yew will survive by inertia in the short-term but eventual become extinct in most areas. Of equal concern will be the loss of old veteran individuals and associated biodiversity. Research highlights: There is an urgent need for interventionist management for both old and young trees, relieving the stress on old veteran trees, and planting and maintaining seedlings through vulnerable young age. A list of management priorities is given.Keywords: Yew; Taxus baccata; Temperature; Precipitation; Seedlings; Bioclimate envelope; Species range.

  17. Policies, Actions and Effects for China s Forestry Response to Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is a great concern of various countries, the public and science community, and forest plays an important role in mitigating climate change. The paper made a comprehensive analysis regarding the policy selections of China to promote forestry response to the global climate change, and elaborated the concrete actions and achievements in this regard. Policy selections include: 1) Reinforce tree planting and afforestation, increase the forested area and enhance the capacity of carbon sequestration...

  18. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  19. Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

    2014-01-01

    Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate

  20. The response of Lake Tahoe to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G.B.; Schladow, S.G.; Reuter, J.E.; Coats, R.; Dettinger, M.; Riverson, J.; Wolfe, B.; Costa-Cabral, M.

    2013-01-01

    Meteorology is the driving force for lake internal heating, cooling, mixing, and circulation. Thus continued global warming will affect the lake thermal properties, water level, internal nutrient loading, nutrient cycling, food-web characteristics, fish-habitat, aquatic ecosystem, and other important features of lake limnology. Using a 1-D numerical model - the Lake Clarity Model (LCM) - together with the down-scaled climatic data of the two emissions scenarios (B1 and A2) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Global Circulation Model, we found that Lake Tahoe will likely cease to mix to the bottom after about 2060 for A2 scenario, with an annual mixing depth of less than 200 m as the most common value. Deep mixing, which currently occurs on average every 3-4 years, will (under the GFDL B1 scenario) occur only four times during 2061 to 2098. When the lake fails to completely mix, the bottom waters are not replenished with dissolved oxygen and eventually dissolved oxygen at these depths will be depleted to zero. When this occurs, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonium-nitrogen (both biostimulatory) are released from the deep sediments and contribute approximately 51 % and 14 % of the total SRP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen load, respectively. The lake model suggests that climate change will drive the lake surface level down below the natural rim after 2085 for the GFDL A2 but not the GFDL B1 scenario. The results indicate that continued climate changes could pose serious threats to the characteristics of the Lake that are most highly valued. Future water quality planning must take these results into account.

  1. Sustainable occupational responses to climate change through lifestyle choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocking, Clare; Kroksmark, Ulla

    2013-03-01

    Abstract Occupational therapists and occupational scientists are increasingly aware of the relationship between occupation and global climate change, with some working to raise awareness of the issues and others proposing that an occupational perspective can make a valuable contribution to understanding and addressing the issues. In this discussion paper the United Nations Global Survey on Sustainable Lifestyles ( 1 ), which reports young adults' beliefs about everyday occupations that have a substantial impact on the environment (food, housekeeping, and transportation) is introduced. The authors argue that the survey findings are a valuable resource for occupational therapists who are concerned about global climate change and work with young adults (age 18-35), providing valuable insights into their concerns and preferences in relation to sustainability. To illustrate the insights contained in the reports, findings from four countries are presented: New Zealand and Sweden, the authors' countries of origin, and the Philippines and Lebanon which have people living in New Zealand and Sweden. Application to individual and community-based interventions to promote more sustainable lifestyles is suggested, along with studies to examine the perspectives of young adults with a disability, as their concerns and sustainability preferences might differ due to the barriers that limit their participation in educational and vocational occupations.

  2. 21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

    CERN Document Server

    Marčelja, Stjepan

    2015-01-01

    Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fails during the last 15 years when SST drops well below the trend. The finding reinforces the view that slower global warming over the previous 15 years is not a caused by a negative phase of the IPO or by the variations in the upper ocean (top 700 m) warming but results from a change in the ocean behavior leading to increased heat transfer into the deeper ocean.

  3. Climate change: Problems of limits and policy responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Present emission rates of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the other principle greenhouse gases (radiatively important gases (RIG's)) - methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons - exceed the capacity of the oceanic, terrestrial, and tropospheric sinks to absorb them. Consequently, their concentrations in the troposphere are increasing and will continue to increase so long as emissions exceed sink capacities. It is assumed that an indefinitely persistent gap between emissions and sinks of RIG's implies indefinite global warming and related changes in regional climates. The high monetary and environmental costs that would be imposed by global warming are discussed along with the changes in energy policy that are needed to insure that these high costs will not be past on to future generations

  4. Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2014-07-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates. PMID:25154102

  5. Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2014-07-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.

  6. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  7. Developments in corporate responses to climate change within the past decade

    OpenAIRE

    Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    This chapter provides an overview of the research on business and climate change in the past decade as carried out by the author, with a particular focus on multinational companies. It covers a synopsis of policy developments, companies’ political and market responses to climate change, as indicates areas for future research.

  8. Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCain, Christy M; King, Sarah R B

    2014-06-01

    Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk species we need to know which species are currently responding, which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. For mammals, we have yet to identify overarching physiological, behavioral, or biogeographic traits determining species' responses to climate change, but they must exist. To date, 73 mammal species in North America and eight additional species worldwide have been assessed for responses to climate change, including local extirpations, range contractions and shifts, decreased abundance, phenological shifts, morphological or genetic changes. Only 52% of those species have responded as expected, 7% responded opposite to expectations, and the remaining 41% have not responded. Which mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic multivariate logistic regressions, P climate change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity times (P climate change in some analyses, whereas hibernation, heterothermy, burrowing, nesting, and study location did not influence responses. These results indicate that some mammal species can behaviorally escape climate change whereas others cannot, analogous to paleontology's climate sheltering hypothesis. Including body size and activity flexibility traits into future extinction risk forecasts should substantially improve their predictive utility for conservation and management. PMID:24449019

  9. Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pounds, J. Alan; Fogden, Michael P. L.; Campbell, John H.

    1999-04-01

    Recent warming has caused changes in species distribution and abundance, but the extent of the effects is unclear. Here we investigate whether such changes in highland forests at Monteverde, Costa Rica, are related to the increase in air temperatures that followed a step-like warming of tropical oceans in 1976 (refs4, 5). Twenty of 50 species of anurans (frogs and toads) in a 30-km2 study area, including the locally endemic golden toad (Bufo periglenes), disappeared following synchronous population crashes in 1987 (refs 6-8). Our results indicate that these crashes probably belong to a constellation of demographic changes that have altered communities of birds, reptiles and amphibians in the area and are linked to recent warming. The changes are all associated with patterns of dry-season mist frequency, which is negatively correlated with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and has declined dramatically since the mid-1970s. The biological and climatic patterns suggest that atmospheric warming has raised the average altitude at the base of the orographic cloud bank, as predicted by the lifting-cloud-base hypothesis,.

  10. RESPONSES AND FEEDBACK TO GLOBAL FORESTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past century is projected to cause a warming of the Earth. limate change predictions vary by region and terrestrial biosphere response and feedbacks will be ecosystem specific. orests play a major role in the earth's...

  11. Our response to climate change requires nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Australian politicians and environmental activists who reject nuclear power as the pivotal technology to combat climate change stand compromised before the court of international scientific opinion and informed global realism. The content of their rhetoric on nuclear matters comprises pseudo-science, innuendo and ideological prejudice communicated through the politics of fear and risk. The recent report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for urgent major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, without which the natural feedback mechanisms that control global temperatures might be overwhelmed. It points out that presently human activity produces around 23.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per annum, about one half of which can be absorbed by soil and ocean. However this capacity is being rapidly destroyed by rising soil and ocean surface temperatures. The report points out that if global warming cannot be kept between manageable limits, it could lead to the destruction of the Great Barrier Reef and the Amazon rainforest, and lead to the forced migration of hundreds of millions of people from equatorial regions and the loss of vast tracts of land as ice caps melt and sea levels rise. For many scientists and engineers concerned with energy and environmental issues it is a matter of deep regret that, the IPCC meetings at Kyoto and Paris have not explicitly endorsed the central role, which could be played by nuclear energy in combating greenhouse gas production and climate change. The environmental benefits from switching to nuclear fuels are striking. The IPCC delegates attending Kyoto in 1997 must have known that light and air-conditioning for the modern International Convention Centre were obtained from an electricity grid supplied partly from a network of 54 nuclear power stations. The greenhouse gas emissions saved by the use of this network and the uranium fuel cycle is around 287 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per

  12. Rapid species responses to changes in climate require stringent climate protection targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van A.J.H.; Leemans, R.

    2006-01-01

    The Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change book consolidates the scientific findings of the Exeter conference and gives an account of the most recent developments on critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, emission pathways and technologica

  13. Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is a core topic within Earth Science-related courses. This vast topic covers a wide array of different aspects that could be covered, from past climatic change across a vast range of scales to environmental (and social and economic) impacts of future climatic change and strategies for reducing anthropogenic climate change. The Earth Science disciplines play a crucial role in our understanding of past, present and future climate change and the Earth system in addition to understanding leading to development of strategies and technological solutions to achieve sustainability. However, an increased knowledge of the occurrence and causes of past (natural) climate changes can lead to a lessened concern and sense of urgency and responsibility amongst students in relation to anthropogenic causes of climatic change. Two concepts integral to the teaching of climate change are those of scientific uncertainty and complexity, yet an emphasis on these concepts can lead to scepticism about future predictions and a further loss of sense of urgency. The requirement to understand the nature of scientific uncertainty and think and move between different scales in particular relating an increased knowledge of longer timescale climatic change to recent (industrialised) climate change, are clearly areas of troublesome knowledge that affect students' sense of responsibility towards their role in achieving a sustainable society. Study of the attitudes of university students in a UK HE institution on a range of Earth Science-related programmes highlights a range of different attitudes in the student body towards the subject of climate change. Students express varied amounts of ‘climate change saturation' resulting from both media and curriculum coverage, a range of views relating to the significance of humans to the global climate and a range of opinions about the relevance of environmental citizenship to their degree programme. Climate change is therefore a challenging

  14. Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D

    2015-11-01

    Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. PMID:26311135

  15. Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas

    OpenAIRE

    Immerzeel, Walter W.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Konz, M.; Shrestha, A. B.; M. F. P. Bierkens

    2011-01-01

    The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future deve...

  16. Hydrological response to climate change in a glaciated catchment in the Himalayas

    OpenAIRE

    Immerzeel, W. W.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Konz, M.; Shresta, A.B.; M. F. P. Bierkens

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future deve...

  17. Non-linearity dynamics in ecosystem response to climate change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, V.R.; Wilcox, D.A.; Stottlemyer, R.; Barrow, W.; Fagre, D.; Baron, J.; Nielsen, J.L.; Allen, C.D.; Peterson, D.L.; Ruggerone, G.; Doyle, T.

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate cna lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  18. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  19. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  20. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  1. Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    The IJOEM

    2010-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathways could stabilise the global average atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) at 450 ppm, the level which has a 50% chance of keeping the temperature rise to 2 oC? What policies are nee...

  2. The importance of phylogeny to the study of phenological response to global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, Charles C.; Willis, Charles G.; Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change has resulted in major changes in the phenology—i.e. the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering and bird migration—of some species but not others. These differential responses have been shown to result in ecological mismatches that can have negative fitness consequences. However, the ways in which climate change has shaped changes in biodiversity within and across communities are not well understood. Here, we build on our previous results that established a link betwee...

  3. Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation’s Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Kerrie L.; Russell, Sally V.; Davis, Matthew C.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that individuals – as members of society – play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants’ belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed.

  4. Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation’s Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Kerrie L.; Russell, Sally V.; Davis, Matthew C.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that individuals – as members of society – play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants’ belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed. PMID:27588009

  5. Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation's Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Kerrie L; Russell, Sally V; Davis, Matthew C

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that individuals - as members of society - play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants' belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed. PMID:27588009

  6. Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation's Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Kerrie L; Russell, Sally V; Davis, Matthew C

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that individuals - as members of society - play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants' belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed.

  7. Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Colleoni, Emiliano; Renaud, Julien; Scali, Stefano; Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2016-06-01

    Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring

  8. Contrasting urban and rural heat stress responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, E. M.; Oleson, K. W.; Lawrence, D. M.

    2012-02-01

    Hot temperatures in combination with high humidity cause human discomfort and may increase morbidity and mortality. A global climate model with an embedded urban model is used to explore the urban-rural contrast in the wet-bulb globe temperature, a heat stress index accounting for temperature and humidity. Wet-bulb globe temperatures are calculated at each model time step to resolve the heat stress diurnal cycle. The model simulates substantially higher heat stress in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas. Urban humidity deficit only weakly offsets the enhanced heat stress due to the large night-time urban heat island. The urban-rural contrast in heat stress is most pronounced at night and over mid-latitudes and subtropics. During heatwaves, the urban heat stress amplification is particularly pronounced. Heat stress strongly increases with doubled CO2 concentrations over both urban and rural surfaces. The tropics experience the greatest increase in number of high-heat-stress nights, despite a relatively weak ˜2°C warming. Given the lack of a distinct annual cycle and high relative humidity, the modest tropical warming leads to exceedance of the present-day record levels during more than half of the year in tropical regions, where adaptive capacity is often low. While the absolute urban and rural heat stress response to 2 × CO2 is similar, the occurrence of nights with extremely high heat stress increases more in cities than surrounding rural areas.

  9. Heating up Climate Literacy Education: Understanding Teachers' and Students' Motivational and Affective Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinatra, G. M.

    2011-12-01

    Changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues, such as human-induced climate change, presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). First, climate science is complex and requires "systems thinking," or the ability to think and reason abstractly about emergent systems (Goldstone & Sakamoto, 2003). Appreciating the intricacies of complex systems and emergent processes has proven challenging for students (Chi, 2005). In addition to these challenges, there are specific misconceptions that may lead thinking astray on the issue of global climate change, such as the distinction between weather and climate (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). As an example, when students are asked about their views on climate change, they often recall individual storm events or very cold periods and use their personal experiences and recollections of short-term temperature fluctuations to assess whether the planet is warming. Beyond the conceptual difficulties, controversial topics offer another layer of challenge. Such topics are often embedded in complex socio-cultural and political contexts, have a high degree of uncertainty, and may be perceived by individuals as in conflict with their personal or religious beliefs (Levinson, 2006, Sinatra, Kardash, Taasoobshirazi, & Lombardi, 2011). Individuals are often committed to their own views on socio-scientific issues and this commitment may serve as a motivation to actively resist new ideas (Dole & Sinatra, 1998). Individuals may also have strong emotions associated with their misconceptions (Broughton, Pekrun, & Sinatra, 2011). Negative emotions, misconceptions, and resistance do not make a productive combination for learning. Further, teachers who find human-induced climate change implausible have been shown to hold negative emotions about having to teach about climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, in preparation), which could affect how they present the topic to students. In this

  10. Changes in Production Potential in China in Response to Climate Change from 1960 to 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Luo Liu; Xi Chen; Xinliang Xu; Yong Wang; Shuang Li; Ying Fu

    2014-01-01

    From the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model, changes in the three climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) over the past five decades showed different trends and that production potential was impacted significantly by the geographic heterogeneity of climate change. An increase of approximately 1.58 million tons/decade in production potential correlated with climate change. Regions with increased production potential were located mainly in the Northeast China Pla...

  11. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.

    2015-12-10

    Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global dataset of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that: (1) re-analyses of existing time-series state how the existing datasets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates and; (4) that new time series be designed to include detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the

  12. Neotropical vegetation responses to Younger Dryas climates as analogs for future climate change scenarios and lessons for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rull, V.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Montoya, E.

    2015-05-01

    The Younger Dryas (YD) climatic reversal (12.86-11.65 cal ky BP), especially the warming initiated at ∼12.6 cal ky BP, and the associated vegetation changes have been proposed as past analogs to forecast the potential vegetation responses to future global warming. In this paper, we applied this model to highland and midland Neotropical localities. We used pollen analysis of lake sediments to record vegetation responses to YD climatic changes, which are reconstructed from independent paleoclimatic proxies such as the Mg/Ca ratio on foraminiferal tests and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) for paleotemperature, and grayscale density and Titanium content for paleoprecipitation. Paleoclimatic reconstructions at both highlands and midlands showed a clear YD signal with a conspicuous warming extending into the early Holocene. A small percentage of taxa resulted to be sensitive to these YD climate changes. Response lags were negligible at the resolution of the study. However, changes in the sensitive taxa were relevant enough to determine changes in biodiversity and taxonomic composition. Highland vegetation experienced mainly intra-community reorganizations, whereas midland vegetation underwent major changes leading to community substitutions. This was explained in terms of threshold-crossing non-linear responses in which the coupling of climatic and other forcings (fire) was proposed as the main driving mechanism. Paleoecology provides meaningful insights on the responses of highland and midland Neotropical vegetation to the YD climatic reversal. Biotic responses at both individual (species) and collective (assemblage) levels showed patterns and processes of vegetation change useful to understand its ecological dynamics, as well as the mechanisms and external drivers involved. The use of paleoecological methods to document the biotic responses to the YD climate shifts can be useful to help forecasting the potential consequences of future global warming. Due to its quasi

  13. Inbreeding and experience affect response to climate change by endangered woodpeckers.

    OpenAIRE

    Schiegg, Karin; Pasinelli, Gilberto; Walters, Jeffrey R.; Daniels, Susan J

    2002-01-01

    In recent decades, female red-cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) have laid eggs increasingly earlier in response to a changing climate, as has been observed in several other bird species breeding at north temperate latitudes. Within each year, females that lay earlier are more productive than females that lay later. However, inexperienced females, experienced females who change mates and inbred birds have not adjusted to the changing climate by laying earlier, and have suffered reproduc...

  14. The palaeolimnological record of regime shifts in lakes in response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Randsalu Wendrup, Linda

    2013-01-01

    Regime shifts in lake ecosystems can occur in response to both abrupt and continuous climate change, and the imprints they leave in palaeolimnological records allow us to investigate and better understand patterns and processes governing ecological changes on geological time scales. This thesis aims at investigating palaeolimnological records of regime shifts in lakes during the Holocene to explore how lake ecosystems responded to climate changes and anthropogenic activities and to identify t...

  15. Calcification response to climate change in the Pliocene?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Davis

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available As a result of anthropogenic pCO2 increases future oceans are growing warmer and lower in pH and oxygen, conditions that are likely to impact planktic communities. Past intervals of elevated and changing pCO2 and temperatures can offer a glimpse into the response of marine calcifying plankton to changes in surface oceans under conditions similar to those projected for the future. Here we present new records of planktic foraminiferal and coccolith calcification from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 607 (mid North Atlantic and Ocean Drilling Program Site 999 (Caribbean Sea from the Pliocene, the last time that pCO2 was similar to today, and extending through a global cooling event into the Intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (3.3 to 2.6 million years ago. Test weights of both surface-dwelling foraminifera Globigerina bulloides and thermocline-dwelling foraminifera Globorotalia puncticulata vary, with a potential link to regional temperature variation in the North Atlantic, whereas in the tropics Globigerinoides ruber test weight remains stable. In contrast, reticulofenestrid coccoliths show a narrowing size range and a decline in the largest lith diameters over this interval. Our results suggest no major changes in plankton calcification during the high pCO2 Pliocene or during the transition into an icehouse world.

  16. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Here we review the effects of nitrogen and climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) on four aspects of ecosystem structure and function including hydrologic-coupled nitrogen cycling, carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  17. Herders' Perceptions of and Responses to Climate Change in Northern Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, S.; Jasra, W. A.; Ismail, M.; Shrestha, R. M.; Yi, S. L.; Wu, N.

    2013-09-01

    Migratory pastoralism is an adaptation to a harsh and unstable environment, and pastoral herders have traditionally adapted to environmental and climatic change by building on their in-depth knowledge of this environment. In the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, and particularly in the arid and semiarid areas of northern Pakistan, pastoralism, the main livelihood, is vulnerable to climate change. Little detailed information is available about climate trends and impacts in remote mountain regions; herders' perceptions of climate change can provide the information needed by policy makers to address problems and make decisions on adaptive strategies in high pastoral areas. A survey was conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan province of Pakistan to assess herders' perceptions of, and adaptation strategies to climate change. Herders' perceptions were gathered in individual interviews and focus group discussions. The herders perceived a change in climate over the past 10-15 years with longer and more intense droughts in summer, more frequent and heavier snowfall in winter, and prolonged summers and relatively shorter winters. These perceptions were validated by published scientific evidence. The herders considered that the change in climate had directly impacted pastures and then livestock by changing vegetation composition and reducing forage yield. They had adopted some adaptive strategies in response to the change such as altering the migration pattern and diversifying livelihoods. The findings show that the herder communities have practical lessons and indigenous knowledge related to rangeland management and adaptation to climate change that should be shared with the scientific community and integrated into development planning.

  18. Herders' perceptions of and responses to climate change in northern Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, S; Jasra, W A; Ismail, M; Shrestha, R M; Yi, S L; Wu, N

    2013-09-01

    Migratory pastoralism is an adaptation to a harsh and unstable environment, and pastoral herders have traditionally adapted to environmental and climatic change by building on their in-depth knowledge of this environment. In the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, and particularly in the arid and semiarid areas of northern Pakistan, pastoralism, the main livelihood, is vulnerable to climate change. Little detailed information is available about climate trends and impacts in remote mountain regions; herders' perceptions of climate change can provide the information needed by policy makers to address problems and make decisions on adaptive strategies in high pastoral areas. A survey was conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan province of Pakistan to assess herders' perceptions of, and adaptation strategies to climate change. Herders' perceptions were gathered in individual interviews and focus group discussions. The herders perceived a change in climate over the past 10-15 years with longer and more intense droughts in summer, more frequent and heavier snowfall in winter, and prolonged summers and relatively shorter winters. These perceptions were validated by published scientific evidence. The herders considered that the change in climate had directly impacted pastures and then livestock by changing vegetation composition and reducing forage yield. They had adopted some adaptive strategies in response to the change such as altering the migration pattern and diversifying livelihoods. The findings show that the herder communities have practical lessons and indigenous knowledge related to rangeland management and adaptation to climate change that should be shared with the scientific community and integrated into development planning.

  19. Advances on the Responses of Root Dynamics to Increased Atmospheric CO2 and Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Plant roots dynamics responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, increased temperature and changed precipitation can be a key link between plant growth and long-term changes in soil organic matter and ecosystem carbon balance. This paper reviews some experiments and hypotheses developed in this area, which mainly include plant fine roots growth, root turnover, root respiration and other root dynamics responses to elevated CO2 and global climate change. Some recent new methods of studying root systems were also discussed and summarized. It holds herein that the assemblage of information about root turnover patterns, root respiration and other dynamic responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 and global climatic change can help to better understand and explore some new research areas. In this paper, some research challenges in the plant root responses to the elevated CO2 and other environmental factors during global climate change were also demonstrated.

  20. Response of a Grassland Ecosystem to Climate Change in a Theoretical Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Guodong; MU Mu

    2011-01-01

    The response of a grassland ecosystem to climate change is discussed within the context of a theoretical model.An optimization approach,a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter (CNOP-P) approach,was employed in this study.The CNOP-P,a perturbation of moisture index in the theoretical model,represents a nonlinear climate perturbation.Two kinds of linear climate perturbations were also used to study the response of the grassland ecosystem to different types of climate changes.The results show that the extent of grassland ecosystem variation caused by the CNOP-P-type climate change is greater than that caused by the two linear types of climate change.In addition,the grassland ecosystem affected by the CNOP-P-type climate change evolved into a desert ecosystem,and the two linear types of climate changes failed within a specific amplitude range when the moisture index recovered to its reference state. Therefore,the grassland ecosystem response to climate change was nonlinear. This study yielded similar results for a desert ecosystem seeded with both living and wilted biomass litter.The quantitative analysis performed in this study also accounted for the role of soil moisture in the root zone and the shading effect of wilted biomass on the grassland ecosystem through nonlinear interactions between soil and vegetation.The results of this study imply that the CNOP-P approach is a potentially effective tool for assessing the impact of nonlinear climate change on grassland ecosystems.

  1. Separating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomiolo, S.; Van der Putten, Wim; Tielborger, K.

    2015-01-01

    Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatica

  2. Seperating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomiolo, S.; Putten, van der W.H.; Tielbörger, K.

    2015-01-01

    Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatica

  3. Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change in the past and future

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) contains enough water volume to raise global sea level by over 7 meters. It is a relic of past glacial climates that could be strongly affected by a warming world. Several studies have been performed to investigate the sensitivity of the ice sheet to changes in climate, but large uncertainties in its long-term response still exist. In this thesis, a new approach has been developed and applied to modeling the GIS response to climate change. The advantages compared...

  4. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  5. The hydroclimatological response to global warming based on the dynamically downscaled climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Felippo

    2010-05-01

    Given the discernable evidences of climate changes due to human activity, there is a growing demand for the reliable climate change scenario in response to future emission forcing. One of the most significant impacts of climate changes can be that on the hydrological process. Changes in the seasonality and increase in the low and high rainfall extremes can severely influence the water balance of river basin, with serious consequences for societies and ecosystems. In fact, recent studies have reported that East Asia including the Korean peninsula is regarded to be a highly vulnerability region under global warming, in particular for water resources. As an attempt accurately assess the impact of climate change over Korea, we performed a downscaling of the ECAHM5-MPI/OM global projection under the A1B emission scenario for the period 1971-2100 using the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system. Physically based long-term (130 years) fine-scale (20 km) climate information is appropriate for analyzing the detailed structure of the hydroclimatological response to climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation are translated to the hydrological condition in a direct or indirect way. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variations and a complicated spatial pattern. While changes in total precipitation do not show any relevant trend, the change patterns in daily precipitation clearly show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation. The increase of temperature enhances the evapotranspiration, and hence the actual water stress becomes more pronounced in the future climate. Precipitation, snow, and runoff changes show the relevant topographical modulation under global warming. This study clearly demonstrates the importance of a refined topography for improving the accuracy of the local climatology. Improved accuracy of regional climate projection could lead to an enhanced reliability of the

  6. Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile. PMID:27223473

  7. Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Blennow

    Full Text Available Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

  8. Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Do forest owners’ levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile. PMID:27223473

  9. Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

  10. Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

    2015-09-01

    Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change.

  11. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  12. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  13. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  14. Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Jill T; Inouye, David W; McKinney, Amy M; Colautti, Robert I; Mitchell-Olds, Tom

    2012-09-22

    Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010-2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change. PMID:22787021

  15. Watershed response and land energy feedbacks under climate change depend upon groundwater.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maxwell, R M; Kollet, S J

    2008-06-10

    Human induced climate change will have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle, creating changes in fresh water resources, land cover, and feedbacks that are difficult to characterize, which makes it an issue of global importance. Previous studies have not included subsurface storage in climate change simulations and feedbacks. A variably-saturated groundwater flow model with integrated overland flow and land surface model processes is used to examine the interplay between coupled water and energy processes under climate change conditions. A case study from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) USA, an important agricultural region that is susceptible to drought, is used as the basis for three scenarios simulations using a modified atmospheric forcing dataset to reflect predicted effects due to human-induced climate change. These scenarios include an increase in the atmospheric temperature and variations in rainfall amount and are compared to the present-day climate case. Changes in shallow soil saturation and groundwater levels are quantified as well as the corresponding energy fluxes at the land surface. Here we show that groundwater and subsurface lateral flow processes are critical in understanding hydrologic response and energy feedbacks to climate change and that certain regions are more susceptible to changes in temperature, while others to changes in precipitation. This groundwater control is critical for understanding recharge and drought processes, possible under future climate conditions.

  16. Adapting responsibilities: an ethical analysis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Harry, Rebecca Jane

    2010-01-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the seminal international agreement that provides a commitment and a corresponding responsibility framework to assist the least developed countries (LDCs) adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. To operationalize these commitments the National Adaptation Programmes of Action was created to assist LDCs implement adaptation projects. This programme has been severely hampered by the limited resources provided by Parties to the ...

  17. Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change : why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Putten, Wim H.; Macel, Mirka; Visser, Marcel E.

    2010-01-01

    Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biot

  18. Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Putten, van der W.H.; Macel, M.; Visser, de M.

    2010-01-01

    Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biot

  19. Assessing insect responses to climate change: What are we testing for? Where should we be heading?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel R. Andrew

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available To understand how researchers are tackling globally important issues, it is crucial to identify whether current research is comprehensive enough to make substantive predictions about general responses. We examined how research on climate change affecting insects is being assessed, what factors are being tested and the localities of studies, from 1703 papers published between 1985 and August 2012. Most published research (64% is generated from Europe and North America and being dedicated to core data analysis, with 29% of the studies analysed dedicated to Lepidoptera and 22% Diptera: which are well above their contribution to the currently identified insect species richness (estimated at 13% and 17% respectively. Research publications on Coleoptera fall well short of their proportional contribution (19% of publications but 39% of insect species identified, and to a lesser extent so do Hemiptera, and Hymenoptera. Species specific responses to changes in temperature by assessing distribution/range shifts or changes in abundance were the most commonly used methods of assessing the impact of climate change on insects. Research on insects and climate change to date is dominated by manuscripts assessing butterflies in Europe, insects of economic and/or environmental concern in forestry, agriculture, and model organisms. The research on understanding how insects will respond to a rapidly changing climate is still in its infancy, but the current trends of publications give a good basis for how we are attempting to assess insect responses. In particular, there is a crucial need for broader studies of ecological, behavioural, physiological and life history responses to be addressed across a greater range of geographic locations, particularly Asia, Africa and Australasia, and in areas of high human population growth and habitat modification. It is still too early in our understanding of taxa responses to climate change to know if charismatic taxa, such as

  20. Terrestrial ecosystems response to future changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration

    OpenAIRE

    V. K. Arora; G. J. Boer

    2014-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to future changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 is assessed by analyzing simulations, for the 2006–2100 period, made with the second generation Canadian Earth system model (CanESM2) for the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Our interest is in the extent to which global terrestrial carbon pools and sinks, in particular those of the Amazonian region, are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate ...

  1. Sex-specific responses to climate change in plants alter population sex ratio and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petry, William K; Soule, Judith D; Iler, Amy M; Chicas-Mosier, Ana; Inouye, David W; Miller, Tom E X; Mooney, Kailen A

    2016-07-01

    Males and females are ecologically distinct in many species, but whether responses to climate change are sex-specific is unknown. We document sex-specific responses to climate change in the plant Valeriana edulis (valerian) over four decades and across its 1800-meter elevation range. Increased elevation was associated with increased water availability and female frequency, likely owing to sex-specific water use efficiency and survival. Recent aridification caused male frequency to move upslope at 175 meters per decade, a rate of trait shift outpacing reported species' range shifts by an order of magnitude. This increase in male frequency reduced pollen limitation and increased seedset. Coupled with previous studies reporting sex-specific arthropod communities, these results underscore the importance of ecological differences between the sexes in mediating biological responses to climate change. PMID:27365446

  2. Simulating hydrologic response to climate change scenarios in four selected watersheds of New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Ayotte, Joseph D.; Cahillane, Matthew J.

    2015-01-01

    The State of New Hampshire has initiated a coordinated effort to proactively prepare for the effects of climate change on the natural and human resources of New Hampshire. An important aspect of this effort is to develop a vulnerability assessment of hydrologic response to climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, is developing tools to predict how projected changes in temperature and precipitation will affect change in the hydrology of watersheds in the State. This study is a test case to assemble the information and create the tools to assess the hydrologic vulnerabilities in four specific watersheds.

  3. Agricultural Producer Responses to Weather and Surface Water Variability: Implications for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Manning, Dale T; Goemans, Chris; Maas, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to bring increased temperatures and changes in water availability across the United States. Understanding the responsiveness of irrigated agriculture to changes in available water, both supplemental, and natural, is critical to evaluating the potential impacts of climage change as well as measuring the benefit of new water supply development. Despite representing only half the value of total agricultural sales in the US, previous literature has mostly focused on dr...

  4. Impacts of Climate Change Induced Vegetation Responses on BVOC Emissions from Subarctic Heath Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valolahti, Hanna Maritta

    The role of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) affecting Earths’ climate system is one of the greatest uncertainties when modelling the global climate change. BVOCs presence in the atmosphere can have both positive and negative climate feedback mechanisms when they involve atmospheric...... the understanding of the controls of BVOC emissions from subarctic ecosystems under climate change by studying the responses to long-term manipulations from leaf level to small ecosystem scale. Leaf-level studies showed different anatomical responses for warming and shading manipulations between studied species...... temperature has been regulating annual plant biomass production, but ongoing global warming is more pronounced in these regions than what the global average is. This may increase the importance of subarctic and arctic vegetation as a source of BVOC emissions in near future. This thesis aims to increase...

  5. Agroecology: Implications for plant response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural ecosystems (agroecosystems) represent the balance between the physiological responses of plants and plant canopies and the energy exchanges. Rising temperature and increasing CO2 coupled with an increase in variability of precipitation will create a complex set of interactions on plant ...

  6. Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC

  7. Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2016-04-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(10^5 ) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO_2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  8. U.S. and Chinese Scientists Discuss the Ocean's Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMarco, Steven F.; Wu, Dexing

    2009-04-01

    Climate Change and Coastal Oceans Workshop; Qingdao, China, 26-28 October 2008; A 3-day workshop was held in China to discuss coastal ocean processes, the biogeochemistry of large river-dominated ocean margins (RiOMars), and climate change and variability studies; to formulate a strategy for a joint venture to assess how climate change has affected coastal oceans; and to predict the ocean's response to future change scenarios. The workshop, which brought together experts from Texas A&M University (TAMU) and five Chinese universities and institutes—Ocean University of China (OUC), Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), Xiamen University (XU), Tianjin University of Science and Technology (TUST), and East China Normal University (ECNU), highlighted the similarities in topics important to North America and Asia. As indicated by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, climate change imposes far-reaching challenges on society. This workshop focused on two large, river-dominated coastal environments: the Mississippi-Atchafalaya system and the Changjiang estuary. Numerous parallels exist between the impacts of the Changjiang on the East China Sea and the Mississippi on the Gulf of Mexico. These RiOMars are ideal for examining the impacts of climate change because they are characterized by large, heavily populated watersheds in two countries that are important in determining the human carbon footprint. The hydrology, biodiversity, and geochemical characteristics of these systems have been greatly influenced by land use and regional-scale climate change. Workshop participants reviewed current progress in understanding physical and biogeochemical processes controlling the two RiOMars, brainstormed challenges in developing a multidisciplinary system capable of assessing and predicting impacts of global climate change on these RiOMars, and identified a multifaceted approach to address these challenges.

  9. Herders' perceptions of and responses to climate change in northern Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, S; Jasra, W A; Ismail, M; Shrestha, R M; Yi, S L; Wu, N

    2013-09-01

    Migratory pastoralism is an adaptation to a harsh and unstable environment, and pastoral herders have traditionally adapted to environmental and climatic change by building on their in-depth knowledge of this environment. In the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, and particularly in the arid and semiarid areas of northern Pakistan, pastoralism, the main livelihood, is vulnerable to climate change. Little detailed information is available about climate trends and impacts in remote mountain regions; herders' perceptions of climate change can provide the information needed by policy makers to address problems and make decisions on adaptive strategies in high pastoral areas. A survey was conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan province of Pakistan to assess herders' perceptions of, and adaptation strategies to climate change. Herders' perceptions were gathered in individual interviews and focus group discussions. The herders perceived a change in climate over the past 10-15 years with longer and more intense droughts in summer, more frequent and heavier snowfall in winter, and prolonged summers and relatively shorter winters. These perceptions were validated by published scientific evidence. The herders considered that the change in climate had directly impacted pastures and then livestock by changing vegetation composition and reducing forage yield. They had adopted some adaptive strategies in response to the change such as altering the migration pattern and diversifying livelihoods. The findings show that the herder communities have practical lessons and indigenous knowledge related to rangeland management and adaptation to climate change that should be shared with the scientific community and integrated into development planning. PMID:23674240

  10. Biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, C.; Bluhm, B.; Gallucci, V.;

    2012-01-01

    . These changes have important impacts on the chemical and biological processes that are at the root of marine food webs, influencing their structure, function and biodiversity. Here we summarise current knowledge on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and provide an overview of fundamental factors...... that structure ecosystem biodiversity in the Arctic Ocean. We also discuss climateassociated effects on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and discuss implications for the functioning of Arctic marine food webs. Based on the complexity and regional character of Arctic ecosystem reponses...

  11. Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O($10^5$) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting - at any lead time and in an ensemble sense - the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO$_2$ using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as their spatial patter...

  12. Response of Spring Phenology of Main Gymnosperm to Climate Change in Harbin City Proper

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change has caused phenology change of vegetation.This is especially obvious in urban area.This paper reveals response mechanism of spring phenology of main gymnosperm in Harbin City proper to climate change based on relationship study between two typical phenophases(beginning of bud burst and beginning of leaf expansion) of Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis),Koyama spruce(Picea koraiensis Nakai),needle fir(Abies nephrolepis) and Pinus sylvestnis var.mongolica Litv.and the temperature of every ten ...

  13. The response of soil processes to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emmett, B.A.; Beier, C.; Estiarte, M.;

    2004-01-01

    to drought were observed. Across the environmental gradient and below soil temperatures of 20degreesC at a depth of 5-10 cm, a mean Q(10) of 4.1 in respiration rates was observed although this varied from 2.4 to 7.0 between sites. Highest Q(10), values were observed in Spain and the UK and were therefore...... by soil moisture rather than temperature. When water was neither limiting or in excess, a Q(10) of 1.5 was observed for net N mineralization rates. These data suggest that key soil processes will be differentially affected by predicted changes in rainfall pattern and temperature and the net effect...

  14. Mangroves Response to Climate Change: A Review of Recent Findings on Mangrove Extension and Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoy, Mario D P; de Lacerda, Luiz D

    2015-01-01

    Mangroves function as a natural coastline protection for erosion and inundation, providing important environmental services. Due to their geographical distribution at the continent-ocean interface, the mangrove habitat may suffer heavy impacts from global climate change, maximized by local human activities occurring in a given coastal region. This review analyzed the literature published over the last 25 years, on the documented response of mangroves to environmental change caused by global climate change, taking into consideration 104 case studies and predictive modeling, worldwide. Most studies appeared after the year 2000, as a response to the 1997 IPCC report. Although many reports showed that the world's mangrove area is decreasing due to direct anthropogenic pressure, several others, however, showed that in a variety of habitats mangroves are expanding as a response to global climate change. Worldwide, pole ward migration is extending the latitudinal limits of mangroves due to warmer winters and decreasing the frequency of extreme low temperatures, whereas in low-lying coastal plains, mangroves are migrating landward due to sea level rise, as demonstrated for the NE Brazilian coast. Taking into consideration climate change alone, mangroves in most areas will display a positive response. In some areas however, such as low-lying oceanic islands, such as in the Pacific and the Caribbean, and constrained coastlines, such as the SE Brazilian coast, mangroves will most probably not survive.

  15. GIS analysis to apply theoretical Minimal Model on glacier flow line and assess glacier response in climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    M. Moretti; Mattavelli, M; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, V

    2014-01-01

    The development of theoretical work about glacier dynamics has given rise to the construction of mathematical models to assess glacier response in climate change scenarios. Glacier are sentinels of climate condition and the Project of Interest NextData will favour new data production about the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections, as well as new assessments of the impact of climate change on environment. The aim of this specific research program is to develo...

  16. Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Spottiswoode, Claire N.; Tøttrup, Anders P.; Coppack, Timothy

    2006-01-01

    Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection...

  17. Energy systems and climate change: Approaches to formulating responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A method is presented for computing the direct and indirect radiative forcings of emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane and comparing them in terms of their carbon-equivalent radiative forcing potential as a common unit. Examples illustrate application of the method in comparisons of the carbon-equivalent emissions from coal-, oil- and natural gas-based electricity and combined heat and power production assuming near-, medium- and long-term perspectives. The second article provides a systematic approach to calculating the net cost of avoiding greenhouse-gas emissions by adopting individual supply- and demand-side fuel switching and energy efficiency measures instead of proceeding down business as usual energy paths. Individual measures are grouped and ranked to form scenario packages for total and average costs of avoided carbon equivalent emissions. Examples are presented for Sweden, the United States and the state of Karnataka, India. A key finding is that there appears to exist significant emission avoiding potential that can be exploited at a net economic benefit to society. This potential is insufficient, however, to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases. The suggestion that changes can be made to energy systems leading to significant levels of avoided carbon dioxide emissions at little or no cost to society has been refuted by economic theoreticians, whose writings warn that policies aimed at avoiding greenhouse gas emissions will incur exorbitant costs. A case study of the potential to use ethanol produced from sugar cane as a transportation fuel in Thailand is used to illustrate an integrated approach to evaluating components of alternative energy systems

  18. Tourists’ Environmentally Responsible Behavior in Response to Climate Change and Tourist Experiences in Nature-Based Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Hyoung Han

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Nature-based tourism destinations—locations in which economic viability and environmental responsibility are sought—are sensitive to climate change and its effects on important environmental components of the tourism areas. To meet the dual roles, it is important for destination marketers and resources managers to provide quality experiences for tourists and to induce tourists’ environmentally responsible behavior in such destinations. This study documents the importance of perceptions toward climate change and tourist experiences in determining tourists’ environmentally responsible behavior while enjoying holidays at nature-based tourism destinations in Jeju Island, South Korea. Two hundred and eleven Korean and 204 Chinese tourists marked dominant tourist arrivals to the island, and responded to the survey questionnaire. Results showed that perceptions toward climate change and tourist experiences affect Korean tourists’ environmentally responsible behavior intentions, whereas tourist experiences—not perceptions toward climate change—only significantly affect Chinese tourists’ behavior intention. In a nature-based tourism context under the pressure of climate change and adverse environmental effects as consequences of tourism activities, resources managers and destination marketers need to develop environmental campaigns or informative tourist programs to formulate environmentally responsible behavior as well as to increase tourist quality experiences among domestic and international tourists.

  19. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  20. Evolutionary response of the egg hatching date of a herbivorous insect under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asch, Margriet; Salis, Lucia; Holleman, Leonard J. M.; van Lith, Bart; Visser, Marcel E.

    2013-03-01

    Under changing climatic conditions, species need to adapt to their new environment. Genetic adaptation is crucial to prevent population extinction but examples where climate change leads to genetic changes in wild populations have been few. The synchronization between the timing of egg hatching of a herbivorous insect, the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), and the seasonal bud burst of its food plant, oak (Quercus robur), has been disrupted by climate change and a quantitative genetic model predicts that selection will delay the egg hatching date. Here we show, using both long-term observational data and experiments, that the egg hatching date has changed genetically, resulting in closer synchrony with oak bud burst. The observed rate of change matches the predicted rate of change of one day per year. Hence, altered selection pressures, caused by environmental change, result in a rapid adaptive response in insect phenology. These genetic changes in a key life-history trait in this herbivorous insect therefore seem to be fast enough to match the climate-change-induced advancement of their host phenology.

  1. Response of Late Carboniferous and Early Permian Plant Communities to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimichele, William A.; Pfefferkorn, Hermann W.; Gastaldo, Robert A.

    Late Carboniferous and Early Permian strata record the transition from a cold interval in Earth history, characterized by the repeated periods of glaciation and deglaciation of the southern pole, to a warm-climate interval. Consequently, this time period is the best available analogue to the Recent in which to study patterns of vegetational response, both to glacial-interglacial oscillation and to the appearance of warm climate. Carboniferous wetland ecosystems were dominated by spore-producing plants and early gymnospermous seed plants. Global climate changes, largely drying, forced vegetational changes, resulting in a change to a seed plant-dominated world, beginning first at high latitudes during the Carboniferous, reaching the tropics near the Permo-Carboniferous boundary. For most of this time plant assemblages were very conservative in their composition. Change in the dominant vegetation was generally a rapid process, which suggests that environmental thresholds were crossed, and involved little mixing of elements from the wet and dry floras.

  2. Response of Late Carboniferous and Early Permian plant communities to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DiMichele, W.A.; Pfefferkorn, H.W.; Gastaldo, R.A. [Smithsonian Institute, Washington, DC (USA). National Museum of National History

    2001-07-01

    Late Carboniferous and Early Permian strata record the transition from a cold interval in Earth history, characterized by the repeated periods of glaciation and deglaciation of the southern pole, to a warm-climate interval. Consequently, this time period is the best available analogue to the Recent in which to study patterns of vegetational response, both to glacial-interglacial oscillation and to the appearance of warm climate. Carboniferous wetland ecosystems were dominated by spore-producing plants and early gymnospermous seed plants. Global climate changes, largely drying, forced vegetational changes, resulting in a change to a seed plant-dominated world, beginning first at high latitudes during the Carboniferous, reaching the tropics near the Permo-Carboniferous boundary. For most of this time plant assemblages were very conservative in their composition. Change in the dominant vegetation was generally a rapid process, which suggests that environmental thresholds were crossed, and involved little mixing of elements from the wet and dry floras.

  3. 77 FR 19661 - Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-02

    ... AGENCY Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change AGENCY: Environmental... Protection Agency is publishing for public comment a draft long-range strategy that describes how the agency...-2011-0943 in the subject line of the message. Mail: Send your comments to: Water Docket,...

  4. Plant response to climate change varies with topography, interactions with neighbors, and ecotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liancourt, Pierre; Spence, Laura A; Song, Daniel S; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Sharkhuu, Anarmaa; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Helliker, Brent R; Petraitis, Peter S; Casper, Brenda B

    2013-02-01

    Predicting the future of any given species represents an unprecedented challenge in light of the many environmental and biological factors that affect organismal performance and that also interact with drivers of global change. In a three-year experiment set in the Mongolian steppe, we examined the response of the common grass Festuca lenensis to manipulated temperature and water while controlling for topographic variation, plant-plant interactions, and ecotypic differentiation. Plant survival and growth responses to a warmer, drier climate varied within the landscape. Response to simulated increased precipitation occurred only in the absence of neighbors, demonstrating that plant-plant interactions can supersede the effects of climate change. F. lenensis also showed evidence of local adaptation in populations that were only 300 m apart. Individuals from the steep and dry upper slope showed a higher stress/drought tolerance, whereas those from the more productive lower slope showed a higher biomass production and a greater ability to cope with competition. Moreover, the response of this species to increased precipitation was ecotype specific, with water addition benefiting only the least stress-tolerant ecotype from the lower slope origin. This multifaceted approach illustrates the importance of placing climate change experiments within a realistic ecological and evolutionary framework. Existing sources of variation impacting plant performance may buffer or obscure climate change effects.

  5. Integrating ecosystem services and climate change responses in coastal wetlands development plans for Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sarwar, M.H.; Hein, L.G.; Rip, F.I.; Dearing, J.A.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores the integration of ecosystem services and climate change adaptation in development plans for coastal wetlands in Bangladesh. A new response framework for adaptation is proposed, based on an empirical analysis and consultations with stakeholders, using a modified version of the DP

  6. An Investigation of Science Educators' View of Roles and Responsibilities for Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinnis, J. Randy; McDonald, Chris; Hestness, Emily; Breslyn, Wayne

    2016-01-01

    This exploratory study investigates what science educators from differing groups (outside of higher education--informal and formal (K-12) and inside of higher education--content and pedagogy experts) believe are the roles and responsibilities (and what actions these might involve) in climate change education for: 1) their group of educators, and…

  7. Plant response to climate change varies with topography, interactions with neighbors, and ecotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liancourt, Pierre; Spence, Laura A; Song, Daniel S; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Sharkhuu, Anarmaa; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Helliker, Brent R; Petraitis, Peter S; Casper, Brenda B

    2013-02-01

    Predicting the future of any given species represents an unprecedented challenge in light of the many environmental and biological factors that affect organismal performance and that also interact with drivers of global change. In a three-year experiment set in the Mongolian steppe, we examined the response of the common grass Festuca lenensis to manipulated temperature and water while controlling for topographic variation, plant-plant interactions, and ecotypic differentiation. Plant survival and growth responses to a warmer, drier climate varied within the landscape. Response to simulated increased precipitation occurred only in the absence of neighbors, demonstrating that plant-plant interactions can supersede the effects of climate change. F. lenensis also showed evidence of local adaptation in populations that were only 300 m apart. Individuals from the steep and dry upper slope showed a higher stress/drought tolerance, whereas those from the more productive lower slope showed a higher biomass production and a greater ability to cope with competition. Moreover, the response of this species to increased precipitation was ecotype specific, with water addition benefiting only the least stress-tolerant ecotype from the lower slope origin. This multifaceted approach illustrates the importance of placing climate change experiments within a realistic ecological and evolutionary framework. Existing sources of variation impacting plant performance may buffer or obscure climate change effects. PMID:23691663

  8. Climate change damage and international law. Prevention duties and state responsibility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verheyen, R.

    2005-07-01

    This book is the first comprehensive assessment of the legal duties of states with regard to human induced climate change damage. By discussing the current state of climate science in the context of binding international law, it convincingly argues that compensation for such damage could indeed be recoverable. The author analyses legal duties requiring states to prevent climate change damage, and discusses to what extent a breach of these duties will give rise to state responsibility (international liability). The analysis includes the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, but also various nature/ biodiversity protection and law of the sea instruments, as well as the no-harm-rule as a key provision of customary international law. The challenge in applying the different aspects of the law on state responsibility, including causation and standard of proof, are discussed in three case studies, and the questions raised by multiple polluters explored in depth. Against this background, the author advocates an internationally negotiated solution to the issue of climate change damage.

  9. Uncertainty of the hydrological response to climate change conditions; 605 basins, 3 hydrological models, 5 climate models, 5 hydrological variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Clark, Martyn; Teuling, Adriaan

    2016-04-01

    Many studies investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydrological response of a catchment and uncertainty of the effect coming from hydrologic modelling (e.g., forcing, hydrologic model structures, and parameters). However, most past studies used only a single or a small number of catchments. To go beyond the case-study, and to assess the uncertainty involved in modelling the hydrological impact of climate change more comprehensively, we studied 605 basins over a wide range of climate regimes throughout the contiguous USA. We used three different widely-used hydrological models (VIC, HBV, SAC), which we forced with five distinct climate model outputs. The hydrological models have been run for a base period (1986-2008) for which observations were available, and for a future period (2070-2099). Instead of calibrating each hydrological model for each basin, the model has been run with a parameter sample (varying from 1600 to 1900 samples dependent on the number of free parameters in the model). Five hydrological states and fluxes were stored; discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, SWE and snow melt, and 15 different metrics and signatures have been obtained for each model run. With the results, we conduct a sensitivity analysis over the change in signatures from the future period compared to the base period. In this way, we can identify the parameters that are responsible for certain projected changes, and identify the processes responsible for this change. By using three different models, in which VIC is most distinctive in including explicit vegetation parameters, we can compare different process representations and the effect on the projected hydrological change.

  10. Unexpected patterns of vegetation distribution response and climate change velocities in cold ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias-Fauria, M.; Johnson, E. A.; Forbes, B. C.; Willis, K. J.

    2013-12-01

    In cold ecosystems such as sub-alpine forests and forest-tundra, vegetation geographical ranges are expected to expand upward/northward in a warmer world. Such moving fronts have been predicted to 1) decrease the remaining alpine area in mountain systems, increasing fragmentation and extinction risk of many alpine taxa, and 2) fundamentally modify the energy budget of newly afforested areas, enhancing further regional warming due to a reduction in albedo. The latter is particularly significant in the forest-tundra, where changes over large regions can have regional-to-global effects on climate. An integral part of the expected range shifts is their velocity. Whereas range shifts across thermal gradients can theoretically be fast in an elevation gradient relative to climate velocity (i.e. rate of climate change) due to the short distances involved, large lags are expected over the flat forest-tundra. Mountain regions have thus been identified as buffer areas where species can track climate change, in opposition to flat terrain where climate velocity is faster. Thus, much shorter time-to-equilibrium are expected for advancing upslope sub-alpine forest than for advancing northern boreal forest. We contribute to this discussion by showing two mechanisms that might largely alter the above predictions in opposite directions: 1) In mountain regions, terrain heterogeneity not only allows for slower climate velocities, but slope processes largely affect the advance of vegetation. Indeed, such mechanisms can potentially reduce the climatic signal in vegetation distribution limits (e.g. treeline), precluding it from migrating to climatically favourable areas - since these areas occur in geologically unfavourable ones. Such seemingly local control to species range shifts was found to reduce the climate-sensitive treeline areas in the sub-alpine forest of the Canadian Rocky Mountains to ~5% at a landscape scale, fundamentally altering the predictions of vegetation response to

  11. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Guo-Yi; Wei, Xiaohua; Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Huang, Yuhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Zhang, Qianmei; Liu, Juxiu; Meng, Ze; Wang, Chunlin; Chu, Guowei; Liu, Shizhong; Tang, Xu-Li; Liu, Xiaodong

    2011-01-01

    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible.

  12. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Yan, J.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhang, Q.; Liu, J.; Meng, Z.; Wang, C.; Chu, G.; Liu, S.; Tang, X.; Liu, Xiuying

    2011-01-01

    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. Impact of Climatic Change on Agricultural Production and Response Strategies in China%Impact of Climatic Change on Agricultural Production and Response Strategies in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Yansui; Liu Yu; Guo Liying

    2011-01-01

    A number of studies indicate that global climate warming has been increasing, especially in recent decades. Climate warming greatly affects global agro-production and food security-- becoming a hotspot of global environmental change. This paper proposes a structural and orientational framework for scientifically addressing climatic change impact on agroroduction. Through literature reviews and comparative studies, the paper systematically summarizes influencing mechanisms and impact of climate warming on such agro-production factors as light, temperature, soil quality and water environment. The impact of climate warm- ing on cultivation regions, cropping systems, crop pests, agro- production capacity, agro-economy and farm management is analyzed. Then, suitable climate-adapting agro-development strategies are put forward for different regions in China. The strategies are carefully selected from a repository of international tested climatic change countermeasures in agriculture at national or district level.

  14. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  15. Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Lorien L; Johnson, Bart R; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D

    2015-01-01

    Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual

  16. Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Lorien L; Johnson, Bart R; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D

    2015-01-01

    Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual

  17. Using Online Tools to Assess Public Responses to Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nophea Sasaki

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available As a member of the Annex 1 countries to the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Japan is committed to reducing 6% of the greenhouse gas emissions. In order to achieve this commitment, Japan has undertaken several major mitigation measures, one of which is the domestic measure that includes ecologically friendly lifestyle programs, utilizing natural energy, participating in local environmental activities, and amending environmental laws. Mitigation policies could be achieved if public responses were strong. As the internet has increasingly become an online platform for sharing environmental information, public responses to the need for reducing greenhouse gas emissions may be assessed using available online tools. We used Google Insights for Search, Google AdWords Keyword Tool, and Google Timeline View to assess public responses in Japan based on the interest shown for five search terms that define global climate change and its mitigation policies. Data on online search interests from January 04, 2004 to July 18, 2010 were analyzed according to locations and categories. Our study suggests that the search interests for the five chosen search terms dramatically increased, especially when new mitigation policies were introduced or when climate change related events were organized. Such a rapid increase indicates that the Japanese public strongly responds to climate change mitigation policies.

  18. Soil erosion under climate change: simulatingthe response of temperature and rainfall changes in three UK catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampalini, Rossano; Walker-Springett, Kate J.; Constantine, José Antonio; Hales, Tristram C.

    2015-04-01

    Soil erosion by water cost in environmental damages across the Great Britain is estimated in over £200m (2014 GBP) each year and could increase for the effect of climate change. Assessing the potential for increased climate-driven soil erosion, due to the several water processes involved (e.g., infiltration excess, return flow, direct precipitation onto saturated soil),is recognizedas a complex task. Climate change can have a positive and direct effect on soil erosionsuch the case of increasing rainfall in amount and intensity, or an indirect effect through the variation of the atmospheric CO2 level, which can improve plant productivityandwater infiltration capacity of soil reducing the likelihood of soil erosion. Changes in vegetation patterns and typologies with a different protection effect can lead also the soil system to dramatic changes in soil erosion rates, potentially amplifying or ameliorating the direct effects of climate change.Climate, vegetation and soil erosion are thus connected and several feedback effects could be accounted in the study of global change. Understanding these interactions may be a primary goal for clarifying the impact of global change on soil erosion and its consequences on related soil functions such as water and organic carbon storage support to vegetation and agricultural production. In this research, focused on three UK catchments (i.e. Conwy, 627 km2, Wales; Ehen, 225 km2, England; and Dee, 2100 km2, Scotland), we simulated soil erosionapplying SRES climatic scenarios(IPCC, 2000) for different CO2 emission levels. We modelled using Pesera "The Pan European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment" (Kirkby et al., 2004), a model for vegetation growing and soil erosion evaluation at regional scale. For each catchment,we realised a sensitivity - analysis - like test investigating different increments in temperature and rainfall, then, we compared the results of the SRES scenarios with the issues of the parametric sensitivity analysis. The

  19. Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its sensitivity to climate variability and change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. R. Vivoni

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic processes in the semiarid regions of the Southwest United States are considered to be highly susceptible to variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics due to the effects of climate change. Relatively little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on the basin hydrologic response, namely streamflow, evapotranspiration and recharge, in the region. In this study, we present the development and application of a continuous, semi-distributed watershed model for climate change studies in semiarid basins of the Southwest US. Our objective is to capture hydrologic processes in large watersheds, while accounting for the spatial and temporal variations of climate forcing and basin properties in a simple fashion. We apply the model to the Río Salado basin in central New Mexico since it exhibits both a winter and summer precipitation regime and has a historical streamflow record for model testing purposes. Subsequently, we use a sequence of climate change scenarios that capture observed trends for winter and summer precipitation, as well as their interaction with higher temperatures, to perform long-term ensemble simulations of the basin response. Results of the modeling exercise indicate that precipitation uncertainty is amplified in the hydrologic response, in particular for processes that depend on a soil saturation threshold. We obtained substantially different hydrologic sensitivities for winter and summer precipitation ensembles, indicating a greater sensitivity to more intense summer storms as compared to more frequent winter events. In addition, the impact of changes in precipitation characteristics overwhelmed the effects of increased temperature in the study basin. Nevertheless, combined trends in precipitation and temperature yield a more sensitive hydrologic response throughout the year.

  20. Modelling land surface fluxes of CO2 in response to climate change and nitrogen deposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristina; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten; Geels, Camilla;

    Climate change, land use variations, and impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition represent uncertainties for the prediction of future greenhouse gas exchange between land surfaces and the atmosphere as the mechanisms describing nutritional effects are not well developed in climate...... climate feedback mechanisms of CO2 between changes in management, land use practise, and climate change....

  1. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  2. Engaging Storm Spotters and Community College Students in Regional Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.; Buhr, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    Resiliency to natural hazards includes climate literacy. With a record number of billion dollar weather disasters in 2011, each one enhanced by a warmer atmosphere, our nation needs new strategies to respond, mitigate, communicate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. We know that actions we take today matter, but finding ways to mobilize our citizenry remains largely elusive. One way to galvanize a meaningful response to climate change could involve National Weather Service (NWS) storm spotters and Community College students. Dedicated storm spotters represent decades of NOAA NWS efforts to engage and enlist public participation in community safety. Why not leverage this wealth of human capital to cultivate a similar mitigation and stewardship response? The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted a pilot project with NWS storm spotters in the spring of 2011 via a web seminar on climate change, climate mitigation and emerging applications to access weather and climate data with mobile devices. Nineteen storm spotters participated and eleven provided feedback via a follow-up survey. A third of the respondents indicated that they had taken actions to minimize their carbon footprint; a majority (90%) indicated their likelihood to take action in the near future and more than two-thirds said they wanted to learn more about climate mitigation and sustainability. One attendee commented "Thank-you for putting together this web seminar. As a weather spotter, I found the information helpful, even humbling, to know climate change is already happening." CIMSS is also collaborating with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Madison Area Technical College (MATC) on a climate education project where community college students take an on-line climate change course followed by the opportunity to apply for a summer internship. Through this program, two students

  3. Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species’ responses to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mair, L; Hill, J. K.; Fox, R; Botham , M; Brereton, T; Thomas, C. D.

    2014-01-01

    There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species’ geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming[1,2]. Here, we show for British butterfly species that the relative importance of species’ abundance trends and habitat availability vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the ...

  4. Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Yinlong; ZHANG Yong; LIN Erda; LIN Wantao; DONG Wenjie; Richard Jones; David Hassell; Simon Wilson

    2006-01-01

    The PRECIS, a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which is nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3P, a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, is employed to simulate the baseline (1961-1990) climate for evaluation of model's capacity of simulating present climate and analyze the future climate change responses in the time-slice of 2071-2100 (2080s) under SRES B2 scenario over China relative to baseline average. It is indicated from the comparison of the simulated baseline climate with in situ observation that PRECIS can simulate the local distribution characteristics of surface air temperature over China quite well; generally speaking, the simulation for precipitation in the north of China and in winter is better than in the south of China and in summer, respectively; the simulation of precipitation in summer is sensitive to topography, and the simulated precipitation values are lower than observations over southeast coastal areas. It is shown from the analyses on the simulated climate change responses in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to baseline that there would be an obvious surface air temperature increase in the north of China relative to that in the south of China, and especially in Northwest China and Northeast China, the amplitude of summer mean surface air temperature increments could reach 5℃; there would be an overall increase of the simulated precipitation in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario over most areas of China, while there would be significant precipitation decreases in South China in winter; there would be obvious precipitation decreases in Northeast China and North China in summer with high surface air temperature increase. However, it presents an obvious precipitation increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer.

  5. Lake Ecosystem Responses to Holocene Climate Change at the Subarctic Tree-Line in Northern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reuss, Nina Steenberg; Hammarlund, Dan; Rundgren, Mats;

    2010-01-01

    A Holocene sediment sequence from Lake Seukokjaure, a subarctic lake at tree-line in northern Sweden, was analyzed to assess major changes in the structure and functioning of the aquatic ecosystem in response to climate change and tree-line dynamics. The compiled multi-proxy data, including...... community. Thus, this study emphasizes the importance of indirect effects of climate change on tree-line lake ecosystems and complex interactions of in-lake processes during the Holocene....... was closely coupled to changes in terrestrial vegetation with associated soil development of the catchment, input of allochthonous organic carbon, and changes in the light regime of the lake. A relatively productive state just after deglaciation around 9700 to 7800 cal years BP was followed by a slight long...

  6. Detecting cross-equatorial wind change as a fingerprint of climate response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hai; Xie, Shang-Ping; Tokinaga, Hiroki; Liu, Qinyu; Kosaka, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are a major driver of the twetieth century climate change. In climate models, the aerosol forcing, larger in the Northern than Southern Hemispheres, induces an interhemispheric Hadley circulation. In support of the model result, we detected a robust change in the zonal mean cross-equatorial wind over the past 60 years from ship observations and reanalyses, accompanied by physically consistent changes in atmospheric pressure and marine cloud cover. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the observed change in cross-equatorial wind is a fingerprint of aerosol forcing. This zonal mean mode follows the evolution of global aerosol forcing that is distinct from regional changes in the Atlantic sector. Atmospheric simulations successfully reproduce this interhemispheric mode, indicating the importance of sea surface temperature mediation in response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. As societies awaken to reduce aerosol emissions, a phase reversal of this interhemispheric mode is expected in the 21st century.

  7. Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapin, F Stuart; Lovecraft, Amy L; Zavaleta, Erika S; Nelson, Joanna; Robards, Martin D; Kofinas, Gary P; Trainor, Sarah F; Peterson, Garry D; Huntington, Henry P; Naylor, Rosamond L

    2006-11-01

    Human activities are altering many factors that determine the fundamental properties of ecological and social systems. Is sustainability a realistic goal in a world in which many key process controls are directionally changing? To address this issue, we integrate several disparate sources of theory to address sustainability in directionally changing social-ecological systems, apply this framework to climate-warming impacts in Interior Alaska, and describe a suite of policy strategies that emerge from these analyses. Climate warming in Interior Alaska has profoundly affected factors that influence landscape processes (climate regulation and disturbance spread) and natural hazards, but has only indirectly influenced ecosystem goods such as food, water, and wood that receive most management attention. Warming has reduced cultural services provided by ecosystems, leading to some of the few institutional responses that directly address the causes of climate warming, e.g., indigenous initiatives to the Arctic Council. Four broad policy strategies emerge: (i) enhancing human adaptability through learning and innovation in the context of changes occurring at multiple scales; (ii) increasing resilience by strengthening negative (stabilizing) feedbacks that buffer the system from change and increasing options for adaptation through biological, cultural, and economic diversity; (iii) reducing vulnerability by strengthening institutions that link the high-latitude impacts of climate warming to their low-latitude causes; and (iv) facilitating transformation to new, potentially more beneficial states by taking advantage of opportunities created by crisis. Each strategy provides societal benefits, and we suggest that all of them be pursued simultaneously. PMID:17008403

  8. Responses of mycorrhizal fungi and other rootassociated fungi to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merrild, Marie Porret

    Climate change is expected to affect many terrestrial ecosystem processes. Mycorrhizal fungi are important to soil carbon (C) and nutrient cycling thus changes in abundance of mycorrhizal fungi could alter ecosystem functioning. The aim of the present thesis was therefore to investigate responses...... of mycorrhizal fungi to climate change in a seasonal and long-term perspective. Effects of elevated CO2 (510 ppm), night-time warming and extended summer drought were investigated in the long-term field experiment CLIMAITE located in a Danish semi-natural heathland. Mycorrhizal colonization was investigated...... levels. Colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi increased under elevated CO2 and warming in spring while ericoid mycorrhiza (ErM) colonisation decreased in response to drought and warming. Increased AM colonization correlated with higher phosphorus and nitrogen root pools. Dark septate...

  9. Does an understanding of ecosystems responses to rainfall pulses improve predictions of responses of drylands to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drylands will experience more intense and frequent droughts and floods. Ten-year field experiments manipulating the amount and variability of precipitation suggest that we cannot predict responses of drylands to climate change based on pulse experimentation. Long-term drought experiments showed no e...

  10. Exploring the universal ecological responses to climate change in a univoltine butterfly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenberg, Phillip B; Self, Angela; Stewart, John R; Wilson, Rebecca J; Brooks, Stephen J

    2016-05-01

    Animals with distinct life stages are often exposed to different temperatures during each stage. Thus, how temperature affects these life stages should be considered for broadly understanding the ecological consequences of climate warming on such species. For example, temperature variation during particular life stages may affect respective change in body size, phenology and geographic range, which have been identified as the "universal" ecological responses to climate change. While each of these responses has been separately documented across a number of species, it is not known whether each response occurs together within a species. The influence of temperature during particular life stages may help explain each of these ecological responses to climate change. Our goal was to determine if monthly temperature variation during particular life stages of a butterfly species can predict respective changes in body size and phenology. We also refer to the literature to assess if temperature variability during the adult stage influences range change over time. Using historical museum collections paired with monthly temperature records, we show that changes in body size and phenology of the univoltine butterfly, Hesperia comma, are partly dependent upon temporal variation in summer temperatures during key stages of their life cycle. June temperatures, which are likely to affect growth rate of the final larval instar, are important for predicting adult body size (for males only; showing a positive relationship with temperature). July temperatures, which are likely to influence the pupal stage, are important for predicting the timing of adult emergence (showing a negative relationship with temperature). Previous studies show that August temperatures, which act on the adult stage, are linked to range change. Our study highlights the importance of considering temperature variation during each life stage over historic time-scales for understanding intraspecific response to

  11. Exploring the universal ecological responses to climate change in a univoltine butterfly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenberg, Phillip B; Self, Angela; Stewart, John R; Wilson, Rebecca J; Brooks, Stephen J

    2016-05-01

    Animals with distinct life stages are often exposed to different temperatures during each stage. Thus, how temperature affects these life stages should be considered for broadly understanding the ecological consequences of climate warming on such species. For example, temperature variation during particular life stages may affect respective change in body size, phenology and geographic range, which have been identified as the "universal" ecological responses to climate change. While each of these responses has been separately documented across a number of species, it is not known whether each response occurs together within a species. The influence of temperature during particular life stages may help explain each of these ecological responses to climate change. Our goal was to determine if monthly temperature variation during particular life stages of a butterfly species can predict respective changes in body size and phenology. We also refer to the literature to assess if temperature variability during the adult stage influences range change over time. Using historical museum collections paired with monthly temperature records, we show that changes in body size and phenology of the univoltine butterfly, Hesperia comma, are partly dependent upon temporal variation in summer temperatures during key stages of their life cycle. June temperatures, which are likely to affect growth rate of the final larval instar, are important for predicting adult body size (for males only; showing a positive relationship with temperature). July temperatures, which are likely to influence the pupal stage, are important for predicting the timing of adult emergence (showing a negative relationship with temperature). Previous studies show that August temperatures, which act on the adult stage, are linked to range change. Our study highlights the importance of considering temperature variation during each life stage over historic time-scales for understanding intraspecific response to

  12. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  13. The roles of vegetation structure and composition in terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, E.; Lichstein, J. W.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2011-12-01

    Vegetation structure, species compositions, and interactions among individuals change with the development of ecosystems. The sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change is therefore differed. However, current dynamic global vegetation models treat vegetation as a couple of compartmentalized pools and neglect the details of vegetation dynamics with only explicitly representations of physiological and biogeochemical processes. These may lead to bias in the predictions of ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change. We incorporated a vegetation structure model, perfect plasticity approximation model (PPA), into a land model, LM3V, the land component of GFDL ESM, and explored the sensitivity and uncertainty induced by the structure of forest ecosystems in Northeastern USA, where the PPA model explicitly describes the competition of light and resources from soil (water or nitrogen) among plant species and the resulted vegetation structure with different environmental conditions and LM3V is a biogeochemical model describing carbon and water fluxes and storage in ecosystems and their feedback to atmosphere. We employed the rules of PPA to represent the vegetation dynamics (species composition, competition for light and water, and vegetation structure) in LM3V. The simulations showed that vegetation structure and the interactions between species could substantially affect the sensitivity of ecosystem carbon cycle to multi-factorial changes of climate. With changes in vegetation compositions and structure, ecosystem responses were less sensitive than those when only plant physiological and biogeochemical responses were considered. Our study shows that the processes at plant community level play a key role in mid- to long term ecosystem responses to climate change.

  14. The Response of First Flowering Dates to Abrupt Climate Change in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Phenological data on the First Flowering Date(FFD) of woody plants in Beijing from 1963-2007 are analyzed.The correlation between each species' yearly FFD and the mean monthly temperatures for every year over a 45-year period is used to identify the month in which temperature has the most effect on FFD. Through further analysis,the FFDs of 48 woody plant species are shown to have advanced an average of 5.4 days from 1990-2007 compared to 1963-1989.The results indicate that 70.8%of species flowered significantly earlier(7 days on average) during the period 1990-2007,while only one species(2.1%) flowered significantly later.Moreover,the responses of FFD to climate change are shown to be different in two climatic stages, defined by an abrupt climate change point.Thirty-three species which first flower in March and April are sensitive to temperature are examined.The correlation coefficients between FFD and temperature for 20 species during the latter period(1990-2007) are shown to be larger than during the former period(1963- 1989),with a difference of around -0.87 days per 1℃on average.The paper concludes that with the warming of climate,the linear trend of FFD variation,as well as its responsiveness to temperature,became more prominent during 1990-2007 than 1963-1989.The data analyzed in this study present a strong biological indicator of climate change in Beijing,and provide further confirmation of previous results from regional and local studies across the Northern Hemisphere.Phenophase variations indicate that the climate is changing rapidly.

  15. The Response of First Flowering Dates to Abrupt Climate Change in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BAI Jie; GE Quansheng; DAI Junhu

    2011-01-01

    Phenological data on the First Flowering Date (FFD) of woody plants in Beijing from 1963-2007 are analyzed. The correlation between each species' yearly FFD and the mean monthly temperatures for every year over a 45-year period is used to identify the month in which temperature has the most effect on FFD.Through further analysis, the FFDs of 48 woody plant species are shown to have advanced an average of 5.4days from 1990-2007 compared to 1963-1989. The results indicate that 70.8% of species flowered significantly earlier (7 days on average) during the period 1990 2007, while only one species (2.1%) flowered significantly later. Moreover, the responses of FFD to climate change are shown to be different in two climatic stages,defined by an abrupt climate change point. Thirty-three species which first flower in March and April are sensitive to temperature are examined. The correlation coefficients between FFD and temperature for 20species during the latter period (1990-2007) are shown to be larger than during the former period (1963-1989), with a difference of around -0.87 days per 1℃ on average. The paper concludes that with the warming of climate, the linear trend of FFD variation, as well as its responsiveness to temperature, became more prominent during 1990-2007 than 1963-1989. The data analyzed in this study present a strong biological indicator of climate change in Beijing, and provide further confirmation of previous results from regional and local studies across the Northern Hemisphere. Phenophase variations indicate that the climate is changing rapidly.

  16. Understanding land surface response to changing South Asian monsoon in a warming climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. V. S. Ramarao

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have drawn attention to a significant weakening trend of the South Asian monsoon circulation and an associated decrease in regional rainfall during the last few decades. While surface temperatures over the region have steadily risen during this period, most of the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate models have difficulties in capturing the observed decrease of monsoon precipitation, thus limiting our understanding of the regional land surface response to monsoonal changes. This problem is investigated by performing two long-term simulation experiments, with and without anthropogenic forcing, using a variable resolution global climate model having high-resolution zooming over the South Asian region. The present results indicate that anthropogenic effects have considerably influenced the recent weakening of the monsoon circulation and decline of precipitation. It is seen that the simulated increase of surface temperature over the Indian region during the post-1950s is accompanied by a significant decrease of monsoon precipitation and soil moisture. Our analysis further reveals that the land surface response to decrease of soil moisture is associated with significant reduction in evapotranspiration over the Indian land region. A future projection, based on the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC, using the same high-resolution model indicates the possibility for detecting the summer-time soil drying signal over the Indian region during the 21st century, in response to climate change. While these monsoon hydrological changes have profound socioeconomic implications, the robustness of the high-resolution simulations provides deeper insights and enhances our understanding of the regional land surface response to the changing South Asian monsoon.

  17. Simulated annual changes in plant functional types and their responses to climate change on the northern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuo, Lan; Zhang, Yongxin; Piao, Shilong; Gao, Yanhong

    2016-06-01

    Changes in plant functional types (PFTs) have important implications for both climate and water resources. Still, little is known about whether and how PFTs have changed over the past decades on the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) where several of the top largest rivers in the world are originated. Also, the relative importance of atmospheric conditions vs. soil physical conditions in affecting PFTs is unknown on the NTP. In this study, we used the improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to investigate PFT changes through examining the changes in foliar projective coverages (FPCs) during 1957-2009 and their responses to changes in root zone soil temperature, soil moisture, air temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentrations. The results show spatially heterogeneous changes in FPCs across the NTP during 1957-2009, with 34 % (13 %) of the region showing increasing (decreasing) trends. Dominant drivers responsible for the observed FPC changes vary with regions and vegetation types, but overall, precipitation is the major factor in determining FPC changes on the NTP with positive impacts. Soil temperature increase exhibits small but negative impacts on FPCs. Different responses of individual FPCs to regionally varying climate change result in spatially heterogeneous patterns of vegetation changes on the NTP. The implication of the study is that fresh water resources in one of the world's largest and most important headwater basins and the onset and intensity of Asian monsoon circulations could be affected because of the changes in FPCs on the NTP.

  18. Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berner, Logan T; Beck, Pieter S A; Bunn, Andrew G; Goetz, Scott J

    2013-11-01

    Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth-climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km(2) ) in northeastern Siberia using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring-width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (Ts ) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMIgy ). Mean summer NDVI (NDVIs ) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub-dominated areas. NDVIs positively correlated (P watershed (r = 0.52 ± 0.09, mean ± SD), principally in cold areas, and with CMIgy across 9% of the watershed (r = 0.45 ± 0.06), largely in warm areas. Larch ring-width measurements from nine sites revealed that year-to-year (i.e., high-frequency) variation in growth positively correlated (P  0.05), which significantly correlated with NDVIs (r = 0.44, P < 0.05, 1982-2007). Both satellite and tree-ring analyses indicated that plant growth was constrained by both low temperatures and limited moisture availability and, furthermore, that warming enhanced growth. Impacts of future climatic change on forests near treeline in Arctic Russia will likely be influenced by shifts in both temperature and moisture, which implies that projections of future forest distribution and productivity in this area should take into account the interactions of energy and moisture limitations. PMID:23813896

  19. Migratory, Genetic and Phenetic Response Potential of Forest Tree Populations Facing Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MÁTYÁS, Csaba

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest trees are especially vulnerable to climatic oscillations due to their long lifespan. Outof the possible mechanisms of acclimation and adaptation, natural selection and migration will play asubordinate role because of the relatively high speed of expected changes. Phenotypic plasticity retainson the other hand primary importance. Analysis of common garden experiments and of healthmonitoring data indicate that response across the distribution area will be differentiated. The lowlatitude,low elevation periphery is especially threatened, while growth in the northern part of rangeswill accelerate (in case moisture conditions will remain favourable. Comparing the velocity ofpredicted changes and the constraints of the buffering mechanisms of species for adaptation, it isobvious that human interference will be essential for the maintenance of ecosystem stability. Forestgenetic and ecology research results have to be synthesised to better elucidate the requirements ofstability and response of forest ecosystems under predicted climatic conditions.

  20. Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B

    2016-09-20

    Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability.

  1. Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R.; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B.

    2016-01-01

    Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale—a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability. PMID:27601643

  2. Nonlinear, interacting responses to climate limit grassland production under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kai; Chiariello, Nona R; Tobeck, Todd; Fukami, Tadashi; Field, Christopher B

    2016-09-20

    Global changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and pollutants are altering ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. Among approaches for predicting ecosystem responses, long-term observations and manipulative experiments can be powerful approaches for resolving single-factor and interactive effects of global changes on key metrics such as net primary production (NPP). Here we combine both approaches, developing multidimensional response surfaces for NPP based on the longest-running, best-replicated, most-multifactor global-change experiment at the ecosystem scale-a 17-y study of California grassland exposed to full-factorial warming, added precipitation, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition. Single-factor and interactive effects were not time-dependent, enabling us to analyze each year as a separate realization of the experiment and extract NPP as a continuous function of global-change factors. We found a ridge-shaped response surface in which NPP is humped (unimodal) in response to temperature and precipitation when CO2 and nitrogen are ambient, with peak NPP rising under elevated CO2 or nitrogen but also shifting to lower temperatures. Our results suggest that future climate change will push this ecosystem away from conditions that maximize NPP, but with large year-to-year variability. PMID:27601643

  3. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  4. Climate change: The challenges for public health preparedness and response- An Indian case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patil Rajan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Extremes weather changes surpassing their usual statistical ranges and tumbling records in India could be an early warning bell of global warming. Extreme weather events like the recent record setting in western Indian city of Mumbai or all time high fatalities due to the heat wave in southern Indian states or increasing vulnerability of easten Indian states to flood could all be a manifestation of climate change in the Asian subcontinent. While the skeptics may be inclined to dismiss these events as simple local aberrations, when viewed in an epidemiological paradigm in terms of person, time and space couple with frequency, intensity and fatalities, it could well be an early manifestation of climate change. Global warming poses serious challenge to the health sector and hence warrants emergency health preparedness and response. Climate-sensitive diseases are among the largest global killers, hence major brunt of global climate change in terms of adverse health impact will be mostly borne by poor and developing countries in Asia, given the levels of poverty, nutional levels and poor public health infrastructure.

  5. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. PMID:26630544

  6. Persistence and diversification of the Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis (Family Soricidae), in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, V.B.; Goropashnaya, A.V.; Talbot, Sandra; Cook, Joseph A.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental processes govern demography, species movements, community turnover and diversification and yet in many respects these dynamics are still poorly understood at high latitudes. We investigate the combined effects of climate change and geography through time for a widespread Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis. We include a comprehensive suite of closely related outgroup taxa and three independent loci to explore phylogeographic structure and historical demography. We then explore the implications of these findings for other members of boreal communities. The tundra shrew and its sister species, the Tien Shan shrew (Sorex asper), exhibit strong geographic population structure across Siberia and into Beringia illustrating local centres of endemism that correspond to Late Pleistocene refugia. Ecological niche predictions for both current and historical distributions indicate a model of persistence through time despite dramatic climate change. Species tree estimation under a coalescent process suggests that isolation between populations has been maintained across timeframes deeper than the periodicity of Pleistocene glacial cycling. That some species such as the tundra shrew have a history of persistence largely independent of changing climate, whereas other boreal species shifted their ranges in response to climate change, highlights the dynamic processes of community assembly at high latitudes.

  7. Relating climate change signals and physiographic catchment properties to clustered hydrological response types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to reduce a comprehensive set of 186 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland to fewer response types to climate change and name sensitive regions as well as catchment characteristics that govern hydrological change. We classified the hydrological responses of our study catchments through an agglomerative-hierarchical cluster analysis, and we related the dominant explanatory variables, i.e. the determining catchment properties and climate change signals, to the catchments' hydrological responses by means of redundancy analysis. All clusters except for one exhibit clearly decreasing summer runoff and increasing winter runoff. This seasonal shift was observed for the near future period (2025–2046 but is particularly obvious in the far future period (2074–2095. Within a certain elevation range (between 1000 and 2500 m a.s.l., the hydrological change is basically a function of elevation because the latter governs the dominant hydro-climatological processes associated with temperature, e.g. the ratio of liquid to solid precipitation and snow melt processes. For catchments below the stated range, hydrological change is mainly a function of precipitation change, which is not as pronounced as the temperature signal is. Future impact studies in Switzerland can be conducted on a reduced sample of catchments representing the sensitive regions or covering a range of altitudes.

  8. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

    2014-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  9. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G; Terando, Adam J; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

    2015-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  10. Changing climate response in near-treeline bristlecone pine with elevation and aspect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the White Mountains of California, eight bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) tree-ring width chronologies were developed from trees at upper treeline and just below upper treeline along North- and South-facing elevational transects from treeline to ∼90 m below. There is evidence for a climate-response threshold between approximately 60–80 vertical m below treeline, above which trees have shown a positive growth-response to temperature and below which they do not. Chronologies from 80 m or more below treeline show a change in climate response and do not correlate strongly with temperature-sensitive chronologies developed from trees growing at upper treeline. Rather, they more closely resemble lower elevation precipitation-sensitive chronologies. At the highest sites, trees on South-facing slopes grow faster than trees on North-facing slopes. High growth rates in the treeline South-facing trees have declined since the mid-1990s. This suggests the possibility that the climate-response of the highest South-facing trees may have changed and that temperature may no longer be the main limiting factor for growth on the South aspect. These results indicate that increasing warmth may lead to a divergence between tree growth and temperature at previously temperature-limited sites. (letter)

  11. The response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. N. Racherla

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the response of surface ozone (O3 to future climate change in the eastern United States by performing simulations corresponding to present (1990s and future (2050s climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for the 2050s decade. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO2/CH4 mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while climate-sensitive emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. The severity and frequency of O3 episodes in the eastern U.S. increased due to future climate change, primarily as a result of increased O3 chemical production. The 95th percentile O3 mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv range; the US EPA's current 8-h ozone primary standard is 80 ppbv. The increased O3 chemical production is due to increases in: 1 natural isoprene emissions; 2 hydroperoxy radical concentrations resulting from increased water vapor concentrations; and, 3 NOx concentrations resulting from reduced PAN. The most substantial and statistically significant (p<0.05 increases in episode frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic U.S., largely as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. These results suggest a lengthening of the O3 season over the eastern U.S. in a future climate to include late spring and early fall months. Increased chemical production and shorter average lifetime are two consistent features of the seasonal response of surface O3, with increased dry deposition loss rates contributing most to the reduced lifetime in all seasons except summer. Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of O3

  12. Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

    2015-06-01

    Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

  13. NDVI-based vegetation responses to climate change in an arid area of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yufeng; Yang, Jing; Chen, Yaning

    2016-10-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and the change of climate variables will eventually have a great impact on vegetation cover and agricultural practices, especially in the arid area Xinjiang in China, whose agriculture and ecosystems are heavily vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to study the vegetation growth and its response to climate change in Xinjiang. Firstly, two NDVI datasets (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) were merged through a pixel-wise regression analysis to obtain a long time series of NDVI data, and then, relationships between yearly NDVI and yearly climate variables, and monthly NDVI and monthly climate variables were extensively investigated for grassland and cropland in northern and southern Xinjiang, respectively. Results show the following: (1) there was an increasing trend in NDVI for both grassland and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang over the past decades and trends were significant except that for grassland in northern Xinjiang; (2) precipitation and evaporation were more important than temperature for grassland in northern Xinjiang, while precipitation and temperature were more important than evaporation for grassland in southern Xinjiang and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang; (3) NDVI was highly correlated with accumulated monthly precipitation instead of monthly precipitation, and there was a lagged effect of precipitation, temperature, and evaporation on NDVI change. However, lagged effects were only significant in specific months. The results could be helpful to agricultural practices; e.g., based on lagged effect of precipitation, irrigation in July is very important for crop growth.

  14. NDVI-based vegetation responses to climate change in an arid area of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yufeng; Yang, Jing; Chen, Yaning

    2015-07-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and the change of climate variables will eventually have a great impact on vegetation cover and agricultural practices, especially in the arid area Xinjiang in China, whose agriculture and ecosystems are heavily vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to study the vegetation growth and its response to climate change in Xinjiang. Firstly, two NDVI datasets (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) were merged through a pixel-wise regression analysis to obtain a long time series of NDVI data, and then, relationships between yearly NDVI and yearly climate variables, and monthly NDVI and monthly climate variables were extensively investigated for grassland and cropland in northern and southern Xinjiang, respectively. Results show the following: (1) there was an increasing trend in NDVI for both grassland and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang over the past decades and trends were significant except that for grassland in northern Xinjiang; (2) precipitation and evaporation were more important than temperature for grassland in northern Xinjiang, while precipitation and temperature were more important than evaporation for grassland in southern Xinjiang and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang; (3) NDVI was highly correlated with accumulated monthly precipitation instead of monthly precipitation, and there was a lagged effect of precipitation, temperature, and evaporation on NDVI change. However, lagged effects were only significant in specific months. The results could be helpful to agricultural practices; e.g., based on lagged effect of precipitation, irrigation in July is very important for crop growth.

  15. Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spottiswoode, Claire N; Tøttrup, Anders P; Coppack, Timothy

    2006-01-01

    suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species...... with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size...... in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting...

  16. Ecotypes as a concept for exploring responses to climate change in fish assemblages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelhard, George H.; Ellis, Jim R.; Payne, Mark;

    2011-01-01

    How do species-rich fish assemblages respond to climate change or to other anthropogenic or environmental drivers? To explore this, a categorization concept is presented whereby species are assigned with respect to six ecotype classifications, according to biogeography, horizontal and vertical...... or combinations of them. The post-1989 warm biological regime appears to have favoured pelagic species more than demersal species. These community-level patterns agree with the expected responses of ecotypes to climate change and also with anticipated vulnerability to fishing pressure....... habitat preference, trophic guild, trophic level, or body size. These classification schemes are termed ecotypology, and the system is applied to fish in the North Sea using International Bottom Trawl Survey data. Over the period 1977–2008, there were changes in the North Sea fish community that can...

  17. Population differentiation in tree-ring growth response of white fir (Abies concolor) to climate: Implications for predicting forest responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, D.B.

    1993-10-01

    Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled C0{sub 2} climates was estimated.

  18. Climate change and apple farming in Indian Himalayas: a study of local perceptions and responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basavaraj Basannagari

    Full Text Available Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (3000 m. At all elevation range the majority of farmers reported that there was increase in atmospheric temperature, and hence at low hills 72% farmers believed that this increase in temperature was responsible for decline in fruit size and so that the quality. Thirty five percent farmers at high hills and 30% at mid hills perceived frost as a major cause for damaging apple farming whereas at low hills 24% farmers perceived hailstorm as the major deterrent for apple farming. The majority of farmers, along the altitude (92% at high hills, 79% at mid hills and 83% at low hills, reported decrease in snowfall. The majority of farmers at low altitude and mid altitude reported decline in apple farming whereas 71% farmers at high hill areas refused decline in apple farming. About 73-83% farmers admitted delay in apple's harvesting period. At mid hills apple scab and at low hills pest attack on apple crops are considered as the indicators of climate change. The change in land use practices was attributed to climate change and in many areas the land under apple farming was replaced for production of coarse grains, seasonal vegetables and other horticulture species. Scientific investigation claiming changes in Indian Himalayan climate corroborates perceptions of farmers, as examined during the present study.

  19. Ecological response to the climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Xi; LUO Geping; XIA Jun; ZHOU Kefa; LOU Shaoping; YE Minquan

    2005-01-01

    The Tianshan Mountains is a high and huge mountain body lying across the central part of Xinjiang, China, and is also the main area where the runoff forms in Xinjiang. In this paper, a set of RS-based study methods is put forward for deriving the information about the natural change of the ecology in arid areas, and the relationship between the climate change trend and the corresponding ecological response on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is analyzed from the scales of the land cover ecosystems and landscapes based on the observed data of climate, hydrology, modern glaciers and lakes on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years and the satellite RS data since recent 10 years by using the RS and GIS technologies. The results are as follows: (1) The overall trend of climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is that both air temperature and precipitation are increased, especially the increase amplitudes of air temperature, precipitation and annual runoff volume are high since the decade of the 1990s; (2) the integrated indexes of the vegetation in all the geographical divisions on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are obviously increased since recent 10 years, especially in the artificial oases and the foothill belts, such a change trend is advantageous for improving the vegetation ecology; and (3) the vegetation ecology in the arid areas is extremely sensitive to the climate change, the vegetation coverage and the biomass on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are continuously increased because of the climate change since recent 10 years, their increase amplitudes in the plains and during the late stage are obviously higher than that in the mountainous regions and during the early stage.

  20. Towards strategic stakeholder management? Integrating perspectives on sustainability challenges such as corporate responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2007-07-01

    The strategic management of corporate sustainability tends to be approached from one theoretical perspective in academic research and publications in mainstream journals simultaneously. In corporate practice, however, a sustainability issue has different dimensions that cannot be captured if only one such lens is taken. The purpose of this article is to develop a more integrated perspective, embedded in a stakeholder view. This paper uses climate change as an example to illustrate how institutional, resource-based, supply chain and stakeholder views are all important to characterize and understand corporate strategic responses to one issue. This is subsequently linked to the climate strategies and related capabilities of companies, reckoning with societal and competitive contexts. Findings - What a corporate climate strategy looks like depends on the type of stakeholders that a company manages more proactively, which is in turn determined by the extent to which these stakeholders control critical resources. While empirical literature usually adopts a particular theoretical perspective, this article has attempted to develop a more integrative approach on corporate responses to climate change.

  1. Towards strategic stakeholder management? Integrating perspectives on sustainability challenges such as corporate responses to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The strategic management of corporate sustainability tends to be approached from one theoretical perspective in academic research and publications in mainstream journals simultaneously. In corporate practice, however, a sustainability issue has different dimensions that cannot be captured if only one such lens is taken. The purpose of this article is to develop a more integrated perspective, embedded in a stakeholder view. This paper uses climate change as an example to illustrate how institutional, resource-based, supply chain and stakeholder views are all important to characterize and understand corporate strategic responses to one issue. This is subsequently linked to the climate strategies and related capabilities of companies, reckoning with societal and competitive contexts. Findings - What a corporate climate strategy looks like depends on the type of stakeholders that a company manages more proactively, which is in turn determined by the extent to which these stakeholders control critical resources. While empirical literature usually adopts a particular theoretical perspective, this article has attempted to develop a more integrative approach on corporate responses to climate change

  2. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  3. Potential impact of climate-related changes is buffered by differential responses to recruitment and interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Menge, Bruce A.

    2011-08-01

    Detection of ecosystem responsiveness to climatic perturbations can provide insight into climate change consequences. Recent analyses linking phytoplankton abundance and mussel recruitment to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) revealed a paradox. Despite large increases in mussel recruitment beginning in 2000, adult mussel responses were idiosyncratic by site and intertidal zone, with no response at one long-term site, and increases in the low zone (1.5% per year) and decreases in the mid zone (1.3% per year) at the other. What are the mechanisms underlying these differential changes? Species interactions such as facilitation by barnacles and predation are potential determinants of successful mussel colonization. To evaluate these effects, we analyzed patterns of barnacle recruitment, determined if predation rate covaried with the increase in mussel recruitment, and tested facilitation interactions in a field experiment. Neither magnitude nor season of barnacle recruitment changed meaningfully with site or zone from the 1990s to the 2000s. In contrast to the relationship between NPGO and local-scale mussel recruitment, relationships between local-scale patterns of barnacle recruitment and climate indices were weak. Despite differences in rates of prey recruitment and abundance of sea stars in 1990–1991, 1999–2000, and 2007–2008, predation rates were nearly identical in experiments before, during, and after 1999–2000. The facilitation experiment showed that mussels M. trossulus only became abundant when barnacle recruitment was allowed, when abundance of barnacles reached high abundance of ∼50% cover, and when mussel recruitment was sufficiently high. Thus, in the low zone minimal changes in mussel abundance despite sharply increased recruitment rates are consistent with the hypothesis that change in adult mussel cover was buffered by the relative insensitivity of barnacle recruitment to climatic fluctuations, and a resultant lack of change in

  4. Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groom, Scott V C; Stevens, Mark I; Schwarz, Michael P

    2014-06-22

    The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops. PMID:24807250

  5. Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, Neal E; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase

  6. Size matters: plasticity in metabolic scaling shows body-size may modulate responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Nicholas; Sigwart, Julia D

    2014-08-01

    Variability in metabolic scaling in animals, the relationship between metabolic rate ( R: ) and body mass ( M: ), has been a source of debate and controversy for decades. R: is proportional to MB: , the precise value of B: much debated, but historically considered equal in all organisms. Recent metabolic theory, however, predicts B: to vary among species with ecology and metabolic level, and may also vary within species under different abiotic conditions. Under climate change, most species will experience increased temperatures, and marine organisms will experience the additional stressor of decreased seawater pH ('ocean acidification'). Responses to these environmental changes are modulated by myriad species-specific factors. Body-size is a fundamental biological parameter, but its modulating role is relatively unexplored. Here, we show that changes to metabolic scaling reveal asymmetric responses to stressors across body-size ranges; B: is systematically decreased under increasing temperature in three grazing molluscs, indicating smaller individuals were more responsive to warming. Larger individuals were, however, more responsive to reduced seawater pH in low temperatures. These alterations to the allometry of metabolism highlight abiotic control of metabolic scaling, and indicate that responses to climate warming and ocean acidification may be modulated by body-size. PMID:25122741

  7. Possible responses of northern peatlands to climate change in the zone of discontinuous permafrost, Manitoba, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bubier, J.L. [New Hampshire Univ., Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space; Moore, T.R. [McGill Univ., Montreal (Canada). Geography Dept.

    1996-12-31

    More than half of the world`s peatlands occur in the boreal zone (45 - 60 deg C N. lat), a region which global climate models predict will experience large changes in temperature and precipitation with increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The northern part of the boreal zone is characterised by discontinuous permafrost, an area that is particularly sensitive to climate change with the possible degradation and thawing of frozen peat. Peatlands are large sources of atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}), an important greenhouse gas. Yet few measurements of methane have been conducted in discontinuous permafrost environments. As part of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS), CH{sub 4} flux was measured in a diverse peatland complex (bogs, fens, peat plateaus, and collapse scars), representing the complete range of temperature, moisture, and plant community gradients found in northern peatlands. The measurement period May to September 1994 was one of the warmest and driest seasons on record, which provided an opportunity to observe the short-term responses of different parts of the peatland ecosystem to a warmer and drier climate as an analog to predicted climate change in the region. (5 refs.)

  8. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woillez, M.-N.; Kageyama, M.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Krinner, G.

    2013-03-01

    The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (HE) events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  9. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-N. Woillez

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  10. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  11. Seasonal blood chemistry response of sub-tropical nearshore fishes to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Aaron D; Zuckerman, Zachary C; Stewart, Heather A; Suski, Cory D

    2014-01-01

    Climate change due to anthropogenic activity will continue to alter the chemistry of the oceans. Future climate scenarios indicate that sub-tropical oceans will become more acidic, and the temperature and salinity will increase relative to current conditions. A large portion of previous work has focused on how future climate scenarios may impact shell-forming organisms and coral reef fish, with little attention given to fish that inhabit nearshore habitats; few studies have examined multiple challenges concurrently. The purpose of this study was to quantify the blood-based physiological response of nearshore fishes to a suite of seawater conditions associated with future climate change. Fish were exposed to an acute (30 min) increase in salinity (50 ppt), acidity (decrease in pH by 0.5 units) or temperature (7-10°C), or temperature and acidity combined, and held in these conditions for 6 h. Their physiological responses were compared across seasons (i.e. summer vs. winter). Bonefish (Albula vulpes) exposed to environmental challenges in the summer experienced a suite of blood-based osmotic and ionic disturbances relative to fish held in ambient conditions, with thermal challenges (particularly in the summer) being the most challenging. Conversely, no significant treatment effects were observed for yellowfin mojarra (Gerres cinereus) or checkered puffer (Sphoeroides testudineus) in either season. Together, results from this study demonstrate that acute climate-induced changes to thermal habitat will be the most challenging for sub-tropical fishes (particularly in the summer) relative to salinity and pH stressors, but significant variation across species exists.

  12. On the brink of change: plant responses to climate on the Colorado Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Schelz, Charles D.; Moran, Mary; Carolin, Tara W.

    2011-01-01

    The intensification of aridity due to anthropogenic climate change in the southwestern U.S. is likely to have a large impact on the growth and survival of plant species that may already be vulnerable to water stress. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is essential to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with past climate conditions. Here we show how the plant species and functional types across a wide range of environmental conditions in Colorado Plateau national parks have changed with climate variability over the last twenty years. During this time, regional mean annual temperature increased by 0.18°C per year from 1989–1995, 0.06°C per year from 1995–2003, declined by 0.14°C from 2003–2008, and there was high interannual variability in precipitation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling of plant species at long-term monitoring sites indicated five distinct plant communities. In many of the communities, canopy cover of perennial plants was sensitive to mean annual temperature occurring in the previous year, whereas canopy cover of annual plants responded to cool season precipitation. In the perennial grasslands, there was an overall decline of C3 perennial grasses, no change of C4 perennial grasses, and an increase of shrubs with increasing temperature. In the shrublands, shrubs generally showed no change or slightly increased with increasing temperature. However, certain shrub species declined where soil and physical characteristics of a site limited water availability. In the higher elevation woodlands, Juniperus osteosperma and shrub canopy cover increased with increasing temperature, while Pinus edulis at the highest elevation sites was unresponsive to interannual temperature variability. These results from well-protected national parks highlight the importance of temperature to plant responses in a water-limited region and suggest that projected increases in aridity are likely to promote

  13. Assessing Land Management Changes and Population Dynamics in Central Burkina Faso in Response to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabore Bontogho, P. E.; Boubacar, I.; Afouda, A.; Joerg, H.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing landscape and population's dynamics at watershed level contribute to address anthropogenic aspect of climate change issue owing to the close link between LULC and climate changes. The objective of this study is to explore the dependencies of population to land management changes in Massili basin (2612 km²) located in central Burkina Faso. A set of three satellite scenes was acquired for the years 1990 (Landsat 7 ETM), 2002 (Landsat 7 ETM+) and 2013 (Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS) from the Global Land Cover Facility's (GLCF) website. Census data were provided by the National institute of statistics and demographic (INSD). The satellites images were classified using object-oriented classification method which was supported by historic maps and field data. Those were collected in order to allow for class definition, verification and accuracy assessments. Based on the developed land use maps, change analysis was carried out using post classification comparison in GIS. Finally, derived land use changes were compared with census data in order to explore links between population dynamics and the land use changes. It was found in 1990 that Massili watershed LULC was dominated by Tree/shrub savannah (69%, 1802.28 km2 ), Farm/Fallow was representing 22%, Gallery forest (4%), Settlement (3%), Barre soil (1%), Water bodies (1%). In 2002, the major landscape was Farm (54%). Tree/Shrub savannas were reduced to 36% while the Gallery Forest was decreased to1% of the basin area. The situation has also slightly changed in 2013 with an increase of the area devoted to farm/fallow and settlement at a rate of 3% and Gallery forest has increased to 4%. The changes in land use are in agreement with a notable increase in population. The analysis of census data showed that the number of inhabitants increased from 338 inhabitants per km2 in 1990 to 1150 inhabitants per km2 in 2013. As shown by statistical analysis (Kendall correlation tau=0.9), there is a close relation between both dynamics.

  14. Modeling the biogeomorphic evolution of coastal dunes in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keijsers, J. G. S.; De Groot, A. V.; Riksen, M. J. P. M.

    2016-06-01

    Coastal dunes form in many parts of the world the first flood defense line against the sea. To study effects of climate change on coastal dune evolution, we used a cellular model of dune, beach, and vegetation development. The model was calibrated and validated against field measurements of the Dutch coast, showing good performance for 10 year simulations. A sensitivity analysis showed that dune size and morphology are most sensitive to the rate of aeolian input and wave dissipation. Finally, 100 year climate change scenarios were run to establish the impacts of sea level rise and changes in vegetation growth rate on dune evolution. The results are in good agreement with conceptual models of dune evolution. Sea level rise largely determines the direction of dune evolution: the rate of rising controls whether dunes are able to preserve their height or sand volume while migrating landward. The effect of changing vegetation growth rates, resulting from climate change, is most manifest in dune response to large disturbances. If vegetation is removed halfway into the simulation, vegetation growth rate determines whether a foredune will revegetate and recover its height. Low vegetation growth rates result in mobile dunes that lose sand. The good agreement between observations and predictions indicates that the model successfully incorporates the suite of biogeomorphic and marine processes involved in dune building.

  15. Simulating global soil-CO2 flux and its response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0.5° × 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil-CO2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil-CO2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil CO2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature,precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil-CO2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil-CO2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil-CO2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35 % above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.

  16. Simulating global soil-CO2 flux and its response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0.5°× 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil-CO2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil-CO2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil CO2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature,precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil-CO2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil-CO2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil-CO2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35 % above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.

  17. Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellermann, Jherime L.; Van Riper, Charles, III

    2015-01-01

    Migratory birds exploit seasonal variation in resources across latitudes, timing migration to coincide with the phenology of food at stopover sites. Differential responses to climate in phenology across trophic levels can result in phenological mismatch; however, detecting mismatch is sensitive to methodology. We examined patterns of migrant abundance and tree flowering, phenological mismatch, and the influence of climate during spring migration from 2009 to 2011 across five habitat types of the Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona, USA. We used two metrics to assess phenological mismatch: synchrony and overlap. We also examined whether phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in mean event date of phenophases. Migrant abundance and tree flowering generally increased with minimum spring temperature but depended on annual climate by habitat interactions. Migrant abundance was lowest and flowering was highest under cold, snowy conditions in high elevation montane conifer habitat while bird abundance was greatest and flowering was lowest in low elevation riparian habitat under the driest conditions. Phenological synchrony and overlap were unique and complementary metrics and should both be used when assessing mismatch. Overlap declined due to asynchronous phenologies but also due to reduced migrant abundance or flowering when synchrony was actually maintained. Overlap declined with increasing difference in event date and this trend was strongest in riparian areas. Montane habitat specialists may be at greatest risk of mismatch while riparian habitat could provide refugia during dry years for phenotypically plastic species. Interannual climate patterns that we observed match climate change projections for the arid southwest, altering stopover habitat condition.

  18. Differential Responses of Neotropical Mountain Forests to Climate Change during the Last Millenium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa-Rangel, B. L.; Olvera Vargas, M.

    2013-05-01

    The long-term perspective in the conservation of mountain ecosystems using palaeoecological and paleoclimatological techniques are providing with crucial information for the understanding of the temporal range and variability of ecological pattern and processes. This perception is contributing with means to anticipate future conditions of these ecosystems, especially their response to climate change. Neotropical mountain forests, created by a particular geological and climatic history in the Americas, represent one of the most distinctive ecosystems in the tropics which are constantly subject to disturbances included climate change. Mexico due to its geographical location between the convergence of temperate and tropical elements, its diverse physiography and climatic heterogeneity, contains neotropical ecosystems with high biodiversity and endemicity whose structure and taxonomical composition have changed along centurial to millennial scales. Different neotropical forests expand along the mountain chains of Mexico with particular responses along spatial and temporal scales. Therefore in order to capture these scales at fine resolution, sedimentary sequences from forest hollows were retrieved from three forest at different altitudes within 10 km; Pine forest (PF), Transitional forest (TF) and Cloud forest (CF). Ordination techniques were used to relate changes in vegetation with the environment every ~60 years. The three forests experience the effect of the dry stage ~AD 800-1200 related to the Medieval Warm Period reported for several regions of the world. CF contracted, PF expanded while the TF evolved from CF to a community dominated by dry-resistant epiphytes. Dry periods in PF and TF overlapped with the increase in fire occurrences while a dissimilar pattern took place in CF. Maize, Asteraceae and Poaceae were higher during dry intervals while epiphytes decreased. A humid period ~1200-1450 AD was associated with an expansion and a high taxa turnover in CF

  19. Plant Functional Variability in Response to Late-Quaternary Climate Change Recorded in Ancient Packrat Middens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmgren, C. A.; Potts, D. L.

    2006-12-01

    Responses of plant functional traits to environmental variability are of enduring interest because they constrain organism performance and ecosystem function. However, most inferences regarding plant functional trait response to climatic variability have been limited to the modern period. To better understand plant functional response to long-term climate variability and how adjustments in leaf morphology may contribute to patterns of species establishment, persistence, or extirpation, we measured specific leaf area (SLA) from macrofossils preserved in ancient packrat middens collected along the Arizona/New Mexico border, USA. Our record spanned more than 32,000 years and included six woodland and Chihuahuan Desert species: Berberis cf. haematocarpa, Juniperus cf. coahuilensis, Juniperus osteosperma, Larrea tridentata, Prosopis glandulosa and Parthenium incanum. We predicted that regional climatic warming and drying since the late Pleistocene would result in intraspecific decreases in SLA. As predicted, SLA was positively correlated with midden age for three of the six species (L. tridentata, J. osteosperma, B. cf. haematocarpa). SLA was also negatively correlated with December (L. tridentata, J. cf. coahuilensis) or June (B. cf. haematocarpa, J. osteosperma) insolation. A unique record of vegetation community dynamics, plant macrofossils preserved in packrat middens also represent a rich and largely untapped source of information on long-term trends in species functional response to environmental change.

  20. Microbial control of soil organic matter mineralization responses to labile carbon in subarctic climate change treatments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rousk, Kathrin; Michelsen, Anders; Rousk, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Half the global soil carbon (C) is held in high-latitude systems. Climate change will expose these to warming and a shift towards plant communities with more labile C input. Labile C can also increase the rate of loss of native soil organic matter (SOM); a phenomenon termed ‘priming’. We investig......Half the global soil carbon (C) is held in high-latitude systems. Climate change will expose these to warming and a shift towards plant communities with more labile C input. Labile C can also increase the rate of loss of native soil organic matter (SOM); a phenomenon termed ‘priming’. We...... with higher fungal dominance. In conclusion, labile C appeared to trigger catabolic responses of the resident microbial community that shifted the SOM mining to N-rich components; an effect that increased with higher fungal dominance. Extrapolating from these findings, the predicted shrub expansion...

  1. Vulnerability of two European lakes in response to future climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danis, Pierre-Alain; von Grafenstein, Ulrich; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Planton, S.; Gerdeaux, D.; Moisselin, J.-M.

    2004-11-01

    Temperate deep freshwater lakes are important resources of drinking water and fishing, and regional key recreation areas. Their deep water often hosts highly specialised fauna surviving since glacial times. Theoretical and observational studies suggest a vulnerability of these hydro-ecosystems to reduced mixing and ventilation within the ongoing climatic change. Here we use a numerical thermal lake model, verified over the 20th century, to quantify the transient thermal behaviour of two European lakes in response to the observed 20th-century and predicted 21th-century climate changes. In contrast to Lac d'Annecy (France) which, after adaptation, maintains its modern mixing behaviour, Ammersee (Germany) is expected to undergo a dramatic and persistent lack of mixing starting from ~2020, when European air temperatures should be ~1°C warmer. The resulting lack of oxygenation will irreversibly destroy the deepwater fauna prevailing since 15 kyrs.

  2. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  3. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  4. Delayed Response of Lake Area Change to Climate Change in Siling Co Lake, Tibetan Plateau, from 2003 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Guihua; Zhang, Tingbin

    2015-10-30

    The Tibetan Plateau is a key area for research on global environmental changes. During the past 50 years, the climate in the Siling Co lake area has become continuously warmer and wetter, which may have further caused the increase in Siling Co lake area. Based on the Siling Co lake area (2003 to 2013) and climate data acquired from the Xainza and Baingoin meteorological stations (covering 1966 to 2013), we analyzed the delayed responses of lake area changes to climate changes through grey relational analysis. The following results were obtained: (1) The Siling Co lake area exhibited a rapid expansion trend from 2003 to 2013. The lake area increased to 2318 km², with a growth ratio of 14.6% and an annual growth rate of 26.84 km²·year(-1); (2) The rate of air temperature increase was different in the different seasons. The rate in the cold season was about 0.41 °C per ten years and 0.32 °C in hot season. Precipitation evidently increased, with a change rate of 17.70 mm per ten years in the hot season and a slight increase with a change rate of 2.36 mm per ten years in the cold season. Pan evaporation exhibited evidently decreasing trends in both the hot and cold seasons, with rates of -33.35 and -14.84 mm per ten years, respectively; (3) An evident delayed response of lake area change to climate change is observed, with a delay time of approximately one to two years.

  5. Multiple phenological responses to climate change among 42 plant species in Xi'an, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Junhu; Wang, Huanjiong; Ge, Quansheng

    2013-09-01

    Phenological data of 42 woody plants in a temperate deciduous forest from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and the corresponding meteorological data from 1963 to 2011 in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China were collected and analyzed. The first leaf date (FLD), leaf coloring date (LCD) and first flower date (FFD) are revealed as strong biological signals of climatic change. The FLD, LCD and FFD of most species are sensitive to average temperature during a certain period before phenophase onset. Regional precipitation also has a significant impact on phenophases of about half of the species investigated. Affected by climate change, the FLD and FFD of these species have advanced by 5.54 days and 10.20 days on average during 2003-2011 compared with the period 1963-1996, respectively. Meanwhile, the LCD has delayed by 10.59 days, and growing season length has extended 16.13 days. Diverse responses of phenology commonly exist among different species and functional groups during the study period. Especially for FFD, the deviations between the above two periods ranged from -20.68 to -2.79 days; biotic pollination species showed a significantly greater advance than abiotic pollination species. These results were conducive to the understanding of possible changes in both the structure of plant communities and interspecific relationships in the context of climate change.

  6. Synthesizing greenhouse gas fluxes across nine European peatlands and shrublands - responses to climatic and environmental changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carter, M.S.; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Emmett, B.;

    2012-01-01

    degrees C, and in annual precipitation from 300 to 1300 mm yr(-1). The effects of climate change, including temperature increase and prolonged drought, were tested at five shrubland sites. At one peatland site, the long-term (> 30 yr) effect of drainage was assessed, while increased nitrogen deposition...... in control plots ranged from 310 to 732 g CO2-Cm-2 yr(-1). Drought and long-term drainage generally reduced the soil CO2 efflux, except at a hydric shrubland where drought tended to increase soil respiration. In terms of fractional importance of each greenhouse gas to the total numerical global warming...... response, the change in CO2 efflux dominated the response in all treatments (ranging 71-96%), except for NO3- addition where 89% was due to change in CH4 emissions. Thus, in European peatlands and shrublands the effect on global warming induced by the investigated anthropogenic disturbances...

  7. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  8. Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughenour, M.B.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Pielke, R.A.; Eastman, J.

    1993-10-01

    The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C{sub 3} temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO{sub 2} than temperate C{sub 4} grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C{sub 4} Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO{sub 2} is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO{sub 2} GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences.

  9. Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C3 temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO2 than temperate C4 grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C4 Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO2 is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO2 GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences

  10. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adelie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  11. Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayzonee Ligaray

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model produced an acceptable performance for calibration and validation, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE values greater than 0.5. Precipitation scenarios yielded streamflow variations that corresponded to the change of rainfall intensity and amount of rainfall, while scenarios with increased air temperatures predicted future water shortages. High CO2 concentration scenarios incorporated plant responses that led to a dramatic increase in streamflow. The greenhouse gas emission scenarios increased the streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%, and 38.4% from the reference period (2003–2011. This study also provided a framework upon which the peak flow can be managed to control the nonpoint sources during wet season. We hope that the future climate scenarios presented in this study could provide predictive information for the river basin.

  12. Predictors of technical adoption and behavioural change to transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy conservation can be achieved through the adoption of technical measures or the changing of one's behaviour. A survey of 201 Malaysian public personnel was conducted to examine the predictors of these two types of transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change. The results indicated that there were significant differences in the relative acceptability of both behavioural measures with respect to gender, level of education, income, knowledge of climate change and attitude. Gender, knowledge of causes of climate change and personal norm were predictors for the acceptability of technical measures, while perceived efficacy and personal norm were the factors that influenced the acceptability of behavioural measures. The results also indicated that distinctions ought to be made between technology adoption and behaviour modifications that require lifestyle changes when assessing pro-environmental intent behaviour. The implications for theory and practice are discussed. - Highlights: • A survey was conducted to examine acceptability of transport energy-saving measures. • Gender, knowledge of causes, efficacy and personal norm are predictors of technical measures. • Personal norm and perceived efficacy influenced acceptability of behavioural change. • Both measures are strongly correlated to psychological factors than to socio-demographic variables

  13. Geographic Variation of Rice Yield Response to Past Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jie; XIONG Wei; YANG Xiao-guang; CAO Yang; FENG Ling-zhi

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a signiifcant decline of simulated national rice yield (simulated with CERES-Rice), with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which conifrmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14°C and above 20°C, a 1°C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20°C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the signiifcant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China’s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identiifed as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.

  14. Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2010-01-01

    The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

  15. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

  16. Highly contrasted responses of Mediterranean octocorals to climate change along a depth gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pivotto, I. D.; Nerini, D.; Masmoudi, M.; Kara, H.; Chaoui, L.; Aurelle, D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has a strong impact on marine ecosystems, including temperate species. Analysing the diversity of thermotolerance levels within species along with their genetic structure enables a better understanding of their potential response to climate change. We performed this integrative study on the Mediterranean octocoral Eunicella cavolini, with samples from different depths and by means of a common garden experiment. This species does not host photosynthetic Symbiodinium, enabling us to focus on the cnidarian response. We compared the thermotolerance of individuals from 20 m and 40 m depths from the same site and with replicates from the same colony. On the basis of an innovative statistical analysis of necrosis kinetics and risk, we demonstrated the occurrence of a very different response between depths at this local scale, with lower thermotolerance of deep individuals. Strongly thermotolerant individuals were observed at 20 m with necrosis appearing at higher temperatures than observed in situ. On the basis of nine microsatellite loci, we showed that these marked thermotolerance differences occur within a single population. This suggests the importance of acclimatization processes in adaptation to these different depths. In addition, differences between replicates demonstrated the occurrence of a variability of response between fragments from the same colony with the possibility of an interaction with a tank effect. Our results provide a basis for studying adaptation and acclimatization in Mediterranean octocorals in a heterogeneous environment. PMID:26064654

  17. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... during the last 10 000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to severely influence both...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  18. Climate change and development responses on agriculture in Quang Nam Province Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schroll, Henning; Andersen, Jan; Lund, Søren;

    2011-01-01

    The study describes the development of agriculture in Quang Nam Province and the adaptation to climate change. Climate change can be defined as the deviation from the “normal” climate variation and we did not assess the anthropogenic contributions to the climate events. It was not possible...... to document the influence of climate change on the agriculture of Quang Nam. Administratively, agriculture in Quang Nam includes the three sectors: farming, forestry and aquaculture. From interviews we found that many Vietnamese authorities and farmers were convinced that today climate changes impact farming......, forestry and aquaculture and consequently different kinds of adaptations have been introduced. We wanted to study the development in agriculture in order to scrutinize if climate events had major impacts on productivity of the three sectors. An overview of agricultural changes was provided through...

  19. Public Sector Responses to Climate Change: Evaluating the Role of Scottish Local Government in Implementing the Climate Change (Scotland Act 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tony Jackson

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Effective climate change actions demand collaborative action from public bodies at all levels, placing local governance at the forefront of delivery. Scottish legislation imposes some of the most demanding legally-binding requirements for reducing greenhouse gas emissions currently to be found anywhere in the world. The new climate change obligations on Scottish local government are reviewed in the context of current Scottish emissions and UK energy policies. Analysis indicates that the pattern of carbon consumption rather than its production must be targeted, and that local government is well-placed to deliver many of the policies to this end. Case studies of Fife and Highland Councils show how Scottish local authorities (SLAs are planning to discharge their climate change mitigation and adaptation responsibilities. Energy efficiency is driving the mitigation of carbon consumption, while new techniques for measuring carbon footprints are being used to adapt the development process to a low carbon mode. SLAs must pursue low-cost local climate change solutions not just to enhance the resilience of Scottish communities but also to demonstrate the feasibility of such approaches for local governance systems elsewhere in the face of growing financial constraints. Recent changes in Scottish waste management practices indicate the potential in this respect.

  20. Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Basics Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions This page ... All Responses Is there a scientific consensus on climate change? The major scientific agencies of the United ...

  1. Water Demands with Two Adaptation Responses to Climate Change in a Mexican Irrigation District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojeda, W.; Iñiguez-Covarrubias, M.; Rojano, A.

    2012-12-01

    It is well documented that climate change is inevitable and that farmers need to adapt to changes in projected climate. Changes in water demands for a Mexican irrigation district were assessed using an irrigation scheduling model. The impact of two adaptations actions on water demands were estimated and compared with a baseline scenario. Wet and dry cropping plans were selected from the last 15 water years with actual climatology (1961-1990) taken as reference and three A1B climate change projection periods P1, P2 and P3 (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2098). Projected precipitation and air temperature (medium, maximum and minimum) data were obtained through weighted averages of the best CGCM projections for Mexico, available at the IPCC data distribution center, using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging method (REA). Two adaptation farmers' responses were analyzed: use of longer season varieties and reduction of planting dates toward colder season as warming intensifies in the future. An annual accumulated ETo value of 1554 mm was estimated for the base period P0. Cumulative and Daily irrigations demands were generated for each agricultural season using the four climate projection series and considering adaptations actions. Figure 1 integrates in a unique net flow curve for the Fall-Winter season under selected adaptations actions. The simulation results indicated that for mid century (Period P2), the use of longer-season cultivars (AV) will have more pronounced effect in daily net flow based than the reduction of planting season (APS) as climate change intensifies during present century. Without adaptation (WA), the increase in temperature will shorten the growing season of all annual crops, generating a peak shift with respect to reference case (WA-P0). Combined adoptions of adaptation actions (AP+V) can generate higher, peak and cumulative, crop water requirements than actual values as Figure 1 shows. There are clear trends that without adaptations, water

  2. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  3. Surface elevation change and vegetation distribution dynamics in a subtropical coastal wetland: Implications for coastal wetland response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Kerrylee; Saintilan, Neil; Woodroffe, Colin D.

    2014-08-01

    The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is receiving global attention and observed changes in the distribution of mangrove and salt marsh are increasingly associated with global climate change, particularly sea-level and temperature rise, and potentially elevated carbon dioxide. Processes operating over smaller-spatial scales, such as rainfall variability and nutrient enrichment are also proposed as possible short-term drivers of changes in the distribution of mangrove and salt marsh. We consider the response of mangrove and salt marsh in a subtropical estuary to changes in environmental variables over a 12 year period by comparing rates of surface elevation change and vegetation distribution dynamics to hydrological and climatic variables, specifically water level and rainfall. This period of analysis captured inter-annual variability in sea level and rainfall associated with different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We found that the mangrove and salt marsh trend of increasing elevation was primarily controlled by position within the tidal prism, in this case defined by inundation depth and distance to the tidal channel. Rainfall was not a primary driver of elevation trends in mangrove and salt marsh, but rainfall and water level variability did influence variability in elevation over the study period, though cross-correlation of these factors confounds identification of a single process driving this variability. These results highlight the scale-dependence of coastal wetland vegetation distribution dynamics; the longer-term trend of surface elevation increase and mangrove encroachment of salt marsh correlated with global sea-level trends, while short-term variability in surface elevation was related to local variability in water level and rainfall. Rates of surface elevation increase were found to lag behind rates of water level change within the Tweed River, which may facilitate further expansion of mangrove into salt marsh. This

  4. Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in Central Lithuania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juknys, Romualdas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Šveikauskaitė, Irma; Sujetovienė, Gintarė

    2016-03-01

    The analysis of long-term time series of spring phenology for different deciduous trees species has shown that leaf unfolding for all the investigated species is the most sensitive to temperatures in March and April and illustrates that forcing temperature is the main driver of the advancement of leaf unfolding. Available chilling amount has increased by 22.5 % over the last 90 years, indicating that in the investigated geographical region there is no threat of chilling shortage. The projection of climatic parameters for Central Lithuania on the basis of three global circulation models has shown that under the optimistic climate change scenario (RCP 2.6) the mean temperature tends to increase by 1.28 °C and under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) by 5.03 °C until the end of the current century. Recently, different statistical models are used not only to analyze but also to project the changes in spring phenology. Our study has shown that when the data of long-term phenological observations are available, multiple regression models are suitable for the projection of the advancement of leaf unfolding under the changing climate. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected advancement in leaf unfolding for early-season species birch consists of almost 15 days as an average of all three used GSMs. Markedly less response to the projected far future (2071-2100), climate change is foreseen for other investigated climax species: -9 days for lime, 10 days for oak, and 11 days for maple.

  5. The trophic responses of two different rodent–vector–plague systems to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Jun; Si, Xiaoyan; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-01-01

    Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change. PMID:25540277

  6. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

    2015-12-01

    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  7. Electricity for groundwater use: constraints and opportunities for adaptive response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Christopher A.

    2013-09-01

    Globally, groundwater use is intensifying to meet demands for irrigation, urban supply, industrialization, and, in some instances, electrical power generation. In response to hydroclimatic variability, surface water is being substituted with groundwater, which must be viewed as a strategic resource for climate adaptation. In this sense, the supply of electricity for pumping is an adaptation policy tool. Additionally, planning for climate-change mitigation must consider CO2 emissions resulting from pumping. This paper examines the influence of electricity supply and pricing on groundwater irrigation and resulting emissions, with specific reference to Mexico—a climate-water-energy ‘perfect storm’. Night-time power supply at tariffs below the already-subsidized rates for agricultural groundwater use has caused Mexican farmers to increase pumping, reversing important water and electricity conservation gains achieved. Indiscriminate groundwater pumping, including for virtual water exports of agricultural produce, threatens the long-term sustainability of aquifers, non-agricultural water uses, and stream-aquifer interactions that sustain riparian ecosystems. Emissions resulting from agricultural groundwater pumping in Mexico are estimated to be 3.6% of total national emissions and are equivalent to emissions from transporting the same agricultural produce to market. The paper concludes with an assessment of energy, water, and climate trends coupled with policy futures to address these challenges.

  8. How is the River Water Quality Response to Climate Change Impacts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, T. T.; Willems, P.

    2015-12-01

    Water quality and its response to climate change have been become one of the most important issues of our society, which catches the attention of many scientists, environmental activists and policy makers. Climate change influences the river water quality directly and indirectly via rainfall and air temperature. For example, low flow decreases the volume of water for dilution and increases the residence time of the pollutants. By contrast, high flow leads to increases in the amount of pollutants and sediment loads from catchments to rivers. The changes in hydraulic characteristics, i.e. water depth and velocity, affect the transportation and biochemical transformation of pollutants in the river water body. The high air temperature leads to increasing water temperature, shorter growing periods of different crops and water demands from domestic households and industries, which eventually effects the level of river pollution. This study demonstrates the quantification of the variation of the water temperature and pollutant concentrations along the Molse Neet river in the North East of Belgium as a result of the changes in the catchment rainfall-runoff, air temperature and nutrient loads. Firstly, four climate change scenarios were generated based on a large ensemble of available global and regional climate models and statistical downscaling based on a quantile perturbation method. Secondly, the climatic changes to rainfall and temperature were transformed to changes in the evapotranspiration and runoff flow through the conceptual hydrological model PDM. Thirdly, the adjustment in nutrient loads from agriculture due to rainfall and growing periods of crops were calculated by means of the semi-empirical SENTWA model. Water temperature was estimated from air temperature by a stochastic model separating the temperature into long-term annual and short-term residual components. Next, hydrodynamic and water quality models of the river, implemented in InfoWorks RS, were

  9. Response of Florida shelf ecosystems to climate change: from macro to micro scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa; Raabe, Ellen

    2010-01-01

    U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research in St. Petersburg, Fla., is focusing attention on marine environments of the Florida shelf at three levels, from regional to estuarine to the individual organism. The USGS is partnering on this project with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (DACS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the University of South Florida (USF) in marine studies. The specific goals of these combined efforts are an improved understanding of the effects of ocean acidification on regional carbonate processes, changes in individual estuaries, and organism-level response. This understanding will assist in developing appropriate Federal, State, and local management responses to climate change in coastal areas.

  10. Managing the global commons decision making and conflict resolution in response to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Naegeli, W.; Lund, P. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (USA))

    1990-07-01

    A workshop was convened to develop a better understanding of decision-making matters concerning management of the global commons and to resolve conflicts in response to climate change. This workshop report does not provide a narrative of the proceedings. The workshop program is included, as are the abstracts of the papers that were presented. Only the introductory paper on social science research by William Riebsame and the closing summary by Richard Rockwell are reprinted here. This brief report focuses instead on the deliberations of the working groups that developed during the workshop. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Human responses to climate change: social representation, identity and socio-psychological action

    OpenAIRE

    Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte; Cinirella, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most important global challenges in the twenty-first century, given that a changing climate is likely to have negative and potentially irreversible consequences for the environment and human beings. Drawing upon Social Representations Theory (SRT) and Identity Process Theory (IPT) from social psychology, we argue that research should focus upon, and successfully integrate, three levels of analysis, namely (1) how climate change knowledge is constructed and circula...

  12. Principals' Response to Change in Schools and Its Effect on School Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Steve; Johnson, Shirley; Robles-Piña, Rebecca; Slate, John R.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the researchers examined principal behaviors related with change in school climate. That is, the manner in which principals managed change within their schools and the impact of these change behaviors on the school climate was investigated. Through use of the Leadership Profile (Johnson, 2003) and the Organizational Health Inventory…

  13. What plant hydraulics can tell us about responses to climate-change droughts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperry, John S; Love, David M

    2015-07-01

    Climate change exposes vegetation to unusual drought, causing declines in productivity and increased mortality. Drought responses are hard to anticipate because canopy transpiration and diffusive conductance (G) respond to drying soil and vapor pressure deficit (D) in complex ways. A growing database of hydraulic traits, combined with a parsimonious theory of tree water transport and its regulation, may improve predictions of at-risk vegetation. The theory uses the physics of flow through soil and xylem to quantify how canopy water supply declines with drought and ceases by hydraulic failure. This transpiration 'supply function' is used to predict a water 'loss function' by assuming that stomatal regulation exploits transport capacity while avoiding failure. Supply-loss theory incorporates root distribution, hydraulic redistribution, cavitation vulnerability, and cavitation reversal. The theory efficiently defines stomatal responses to D, drying soil, and hydraulic vulnerability. Driving the theory with climate predicts drought-induced loss of plant hydraulic conductance (k), canopy G, carbon assimilation, and productivity. Data lead to the 'chronic stress hypothesis' wherein > 60% loss of k increases mortality by multiple mechanisms. Supply-loss theory predicts the climatic conditions that push vegetation over this risk threshold. The theory's simplicity and predictive power encourage testing and application in large-scale modeling.

  14. "As-If" the Climate Has Changed; What We Can Expect in Hydrologic Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieux, B. E.; Looper, J.

    2015-12-01

    Predicting the effects of climate change through hydrologic modeling with hydrologic forcing representative of historic and future climates. Understanding the hydrologic impacts of various climate scenarios and pathways is accomplished with a physics-based distributed hydrologic model with historic and future precipitation and evapotranspiration inputs. Vflo is a gridded hydrologic model setup for the 71,009 sq.-km. study area, the Canadian River, extending from arid areas in eastern New Mexico, across the Texas Panhandle to Lake Eufaula in sub-humid eastern Oklahoma. This model uses merged radar and rain gauge data to generate hydrographs at gauged and ungauged locations. Vflo is calibrated to observed stream gauge data minimizing Nash-Sutcliffe error function for volume and discharge. Streamflow characteristics at ungauged locations, for both historic and future scenarios, are used to develop ecological relationships between water quality, discharge, and fish species. Testing the change in hydrologic response from future potential evapotranspiration (PET) and future precipitation is accomplished using observed rainfall. Historical rainfall is perturbed to represent future climate scenarios. Model-based simulations are used to test various scenarios comprising: 1) warmer and drier, 2) warmer and status quo precipitation, and 3) status quo PET but drier. Bias corrected and spatially down-sampled CMIP3 datasets are used to create perturbations for the latter portion of the 21st Century, 2070-2099. The change in precipitation and PET between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 is applied to radar data from the observed period, 1995-2010. Then GCM-predicted changes in precipitation under the perturbation of historic rainfall accomplishes an important feature, i.e. preserving realistic spatial, temporal, and convective patterns of rainfall typical of the southern plains, which adds confidence to the model-based simulation of future climate impacts. Simulation of the perturbed

  15. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  16. A regional response to global climate change: New England and eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Resource managers, scientists, and policy makers from New England and eastern Canada assembled at a 1993 symposium to consider the regional implications of global climate change and to develop state and provincial adaptation strategies. A summary is presented of issues discussed at this meeting, information gaps identified, and recommendations for an appropriate regional response. The symposium began with a regional overview and a review of the climate system and possible environmental impacts of global warming. Policy implications were also discussed. Working groups considered issues related to energy use, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, recreation and tourism, and sea level rise. Given the remaining uncertainties about the timing and extent of global warming, especially on a regional scale, the symposium recommended adoption of a series of measures which are beneficial in their own right and in the face of present variations of climate and its extremes. The recommendations were characterized by three broad themes: diversification of the natural resources based economy; risks to human health, ecological communities, and economic infrastructure; and information development and sharing. Proposed strategies were grouped in four major categories: adaptation to future changes; trend assessment; education; and limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

  17. Modeling agricultural commodity prices and volatility in response to anticipated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, D. B.; Tran, N.; Welch, J.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Food prices have shown a positive trend in the past decade, with episodes of rapid increases in 2008 and 2011. These increases pose a threat to food security in many regions of the world, where the poor are generally net consumers of food, and are also thought to increase risks of social and political unrest. The role of global warming in these price reversals have been debated, but little quantitative work has been done. A particular challenge in modeling these effects is that they require understanding links between climate and food supply, as well as between food supply and prices. Here we combine the anticipated effects of climate change on yield levels and volatility with an empirical competitive storage model to examine how expected climate change might affect prices and social welfare in the international food commodity market. We show that price level and volatility do increase over time in response to decreasing yield, and increasing yield variability. Land supply and storage demand both increase, but production and consumption continue to fall leading to a decrease in consumer surplus, and a corresponding though smaller increase in producer surplus.

  18. Using Rapid-Response Scenario-Building Methodology for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, K. A.; Stoepler, T. M.; Schuster, R.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid-response scenario-building methodology can be modified to develop scenarios for slow-onset disasters associated with climate change such as drought. Results of a collaboration between the Department of the Interior (DOI) Strategic Sciences Group (SSG) and the Southwest Colorado Social-Ecological Climate Resilience Project are presented in which SSG scenario-building methods were revised and applied to climate change adaptation planning in Colorado's Gunnison Basin, United States. The SSG provides the DOI with the capacity to rapidly assemble multidisciplinary teams of experts to develop scenarios of the potential environmental, social, and economic cascading consequences of environmental crises, and to analyze these chains to determine actionable intervention points. By design, the SSG responds to acute events of a relatively defined duration. As a capacity-building exercise, the SSG explored how its scenario-building methodology could be applied to outlining the cascading consequences of slow-onset events related to climate change. SSG staff facilitated two workshops to analyze the impacts of drought, wildfire, and insect outbreak in the sagebrush and spruce-fir ecosystems. Participants included local land managers, natural and social scientists, ranchers, and other stakeholders. Key findings were: 1) scenario framing must be adjusted to accommodate the multiple, synergistic components and longer time frames of slow-onset events; 2) the development of slow-onset event scenarios is likely influenced by participants having had more time to consider potential consequences, relative to acute events; 3) participants who are from the affected area may have a more vested interest in the outcome and/or may be able to directly implement interventions.

  19. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  20. Morphological and dietary responses of chipmunks to a century of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Rachel E; Aprígio Assis, Ana Paula; Patton, James L; Marroig, Gabriel; Dawson, Todd E; Lacey, Eileen A

    2016-09-01

    Predicting how individual taxa will respond to climatic change is challenging, in part because the impacts of environmental conditions can vary markedly, even among closely related species. Studies of chipmunks (Tamias spp.) in Yosemite National Park provide an important opportunity to explore the reasons for this variation in response. While the alpine chipmunk (T. alpinus) has undergone a significant elevational range contraction over the past century, the congeneric and partially sympatric lodgepole chipmunk (T. speciosus) has not experienced an elevational range shift during this period. As a first step toward identifying the factors underlying this difference in response, we examined evidence for dietary changes and changes in cranial morphology in these species over the past century. Stable isotope analyses of fur samples from modern and historical museum specimens of these species collected at the same localities indicated that signatures of dietary change were more pronounced in T. alpinus, although diet breadth did not differ consistently between the study species. Morphometric analyses of crania from these specimens revealed significant changes in cranial shape for T. alpinus, with less pronounced changes in shape for T. speciosus; evidence of selection on skull morphology was detected for T. alpinus, but not for T. speciosus. These results are consistent with growing evidence that T. alpinus is generally more responsive to environmental change than T. speciosus, but emphasize the complex and often geographically variable nature of such responses. Accordingly, future studies that make use of the taxonomically and spatially integrative approach employed here may prove particularly informative regarding relationships between environmental conditions, range changes, and patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:26732228

  1. Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Runhaar, H.A.C.; Uittenbroek, C.J.; Rijswick, van H.F.M.W.; Mees, H.L.P.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Gilissen, H.K.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate ch

  2. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  3. Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yingying; Wang, Xiaojing; Silander, John A

    2015-11-01

    Changes in spring and autumn phenology of temperate plants in recent decades have become iconic bio-indicators of rapid climate change. These changes have substantial ecological and economic impacts. However, autumn phenology remains surprisingly little studied. Although the effects of unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) on autumn phenology have been observed for over 60 y, how these factors interact to influence autumn phenological events remain poorly understood. Using remotely sensed phenology data from 2001 to 2012, this study identified and quantified significant effects of a suite of environmental factors on the timing of fall dormancy of deciduous forest communities in New England, United States. Cold, frost, and wet conditions, and high heat-stress tended to induce earlier dormancy of deciduous forests, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Deciduous forests in two eco-regions showed contrasting, nonlinear responses to variation in these explanatory factors. Based on future climate projection over two periods (2041-2050 and 2090-2099), later dormancy dates were predicted in northern areas. However, in coastal areas earlier dormancy dates were predicted. Our models suggest that besides warming in climate change, changes in frost and moisture conditions as well as extreme weather events (e.g., drought- and heat-stress, and flooding), should also be considered in future predictions of autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forests. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables interact to affect autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems, and points the way to building more mechanistic and predictive models.

  4. Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yingying; Wang, Xiaojing; Silander, John A

    2015-11-01

    Changes in spring and autumn phenology of temperate plants in recent decades have become iconic bio-indicators of rapid climate change. These changes have substantial ecological and economic impacts. However, autumn phenology remains surprisingly little studied. Although the effects of unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) on autumn phenology have been observed for over 60 y, how these factors interact to influence autumn phenological events remain poorly understood. Using remotely sensed phenology data from 2001 to 2012, this study identified and quantified significant effects of a suite of environmental factors on the timing of fall dormancy of deciduous forest communities in New England, United States. Cold, frost, and wet conditions, and high heat-stress tended to induce earlier dormancy of deciduous forests, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Deciduous forests in two eco-regions showed contrasting, nonlinear responses to variation in these explanatory factors. Based on future climate projection over two periods (2041-2050 and 2090-2099), later dormancy dates were predicted in northern areas. However, in coastal areas earlier dormancy dates were predicted. Our models suggest that besides warming in climate change, changes in frost and moisture conditions as well as extreme weather events (e.g., drought- and heat-stress, and flooding), should also be considered in future predictions of autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forests. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables interact to affect autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems, and points the way to building more mechanistic and predictive models. PMID:26483475

  5. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah, L.; Roehrdanz, PR; Ikegami, M; Shepard, AV; Shaw; Tabor, G; Zhi, L; Marquet, PA; Hijmans, RJ

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticul...

  6. Modeling Sphagnum moisture stress in response to 21st century climate change using dynamic peat properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, P.; Kettridge, N.; Morris, P. J.; Waddington, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sphagnum is associated with wet habitats such as northern peatlands, which may be vulnerable to enhanced 21st century drought due to climate change. We adapted a physically based, 1.5-dimensional (vertical with horizontal interaction in the saturated zone) water-balance model to investigate the role of topographic position and depth-dependence of hydrophysical properties on Sphagnum moisture stress response to current and projected climate conditions in a southern boreal peatland. We parameterized the peat hydrophysical properties using field and lab-based measurements from three adjacent peatlands with different average water table (WT) depths, microtopgraphic variability, and microtopographic patterning; where measurement locations were chosen to take advantage of a long-term WT manipulation that resulted from berm construction in the 1950s. WT level was shown to have a strong control on pore water pressure (ψ), and thus on Sphagnum moisture stress. As a result of the close correspondence between laboratory measured surface peat hydrophysical properties for hummocks and lawns used to parameterize our model, microtopographic position was shown to have a greater impact on Sphagnum moisture stress when using a static surface level. By incorporating a dynamic surface level based on ψ, bulk density, and differences in compressibility between microtopographical elements, Sphagnum moisture stress was shown to be reduced in lawns. The reduction in moisture stress was less than what would be expected based solely on surface adjustment due to the concomitant change in pore-size distribution, which we model based on changes in bulk density. Overall, model behavior suggests that, while ψ maintains equilibrium-profile values relative to the WT level for relatively shallow values, surface ψ becomes non-linearly related to WT level below a value of approximately -0.4 m, thus greatly increasing the likelihood of desiccation under future climate scenarios where growing season

  7. How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Boogaard, Hendrik; Conijn, Sjaak; Corbeels, Marc; Deryng, Delphine; DeSanctis, Giacomo; Gayler, Sebastian; Grassini, Patricio; Hatfield, Jerry; Hoek, Steven; Izaurralde, Cesar; Jongschaap, Raymond; Kemanian, Armen R.; Kersebaum, K. Christian

    2014-01-01

    Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

  8. Modelling land surface fluxes of CO2 in response to climate change and nitrogen deposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristina; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten; Geels, Camilla;

    Climate change, land use variations, and impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition represent uncertainties for the prediction of future greenhouse gas exchange between land surfaces and the atmosphere as the mechanisms describing nutritional effects are not well developed in climate and ecos......Climate change, land use variations, and impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition represent uncertainties for the prediction of future greenhouse gas exchange between land surfaces and the atmosphere as the mechanisms describing nutritional effects are not well developed in climate...... and ecosystems models. Recent research indicate the need for incorporating the ammonia (NH3) compensation point in atmospheric N deposition models to quantify the N budget for vegetative surfaces. This poster presents a PhD project within ECOCLIM of incorporating the NH3 compensation point in a coupled...... climate feedback mechanisms of CO2 between changes in management, land use practise, and climate change....

  9. Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Quansheng; Wang, Huanjiong; Rutishauser, This; Dai, Junhu

    2015-01-01

    The change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960-2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade(-1) ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade(-1) for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade(-1), while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade(-1) . For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s-2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s-2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China (R=-0.33, P<0.05). PMID:24895088

  10. Forest Plant community changes during 1989-2007 in response to climate warming in the Jura Mountains (France and Switzerland)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenoir, Jonathan; Gégout, J.C.; Dupouey, J.L.;

    2010-01-01

    Question: How strong are climate warming-driven changes within mid-elevation forest communities? Observations of plant community change within temperate mountain forest ecosystems in response to recent warming are scarce in comparison to high-elevation alpine and nival ecosystems, perhaps...... are consistent with effects of climate warming and local stand dynamics. Changes in species distribution were small in comparison to observed local temperature increases, perhaps reflecting dispersal limitation, phenotypic plasticity or microclimatic buffering by the tree canopy. Causality cannot rigorously...... be inferred from such a descriptive study; however, we suggest that recent warming is now driving plant community change in the climatically more moderate mid-elevation forest setting....

  11. The scaling law of climate change and its relevance to assessing (palaeo)biological responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiessling, Wolfgang; Eichenseer, Kilian

    2014-05-01

    interglacials, are not monotonic, but punctuated by short-term cooling intervals. The fossil record tells us that biodiversity responded dramatically to ancient intervals of climate warming. We can now see that the apparently slower rates of change in some mass extinctions (Permian-Triassic, Triassic-Jurassic) were greater than today when the scaling law is considered. This reassures us that studying deep time patterns of organismic response to climate change is a worthwhile endeavor that is relevant for predicting the future. References Burrows, M. T., Schoeman, D. S., Buckley, L. B., Moore, P., Poloczanska, E. S., Brander, K. M., Brown, C., Bruno, J. F., Duarte, C. M., Halpern, B. S., Holding, J., Kappel, C. V., Kiessling, W., O'Connor, M. I., Pandolfi, J. M., Parmesan, C., Schwing, F. B., Sydeman, W. J., and Richardson, A. J.: The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems, Science, 334, 652-655, 2011. Gingerich, P. D.: Quantification and comparison of evolutionary rates, American Journal of Science, 293A, 453-478, 1993. Sadler, P. M.: Sediment accumulation rates and the completeness of stratigraphic sections, Journal of Geology, 89, 569-584, 1981. Sun, Y., Joachimski, M. M., Wignall, P. B., Yan, C., Chen, Y., Jiang, H., Wang, L., and Lai, X.: Lethally hot temperatures during the Early Triassic greenhouse, Science, 338, 366-370, 2012.

  12. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

    OpenAIRE

    Stephens, P A; Mason, L.R.; Green, R. E.; Gregory, R. D.; Sauer, J.R.; Alison, J.; Aunins, A.; Brotons, L.; Butchart, S.H.M; Campedelli, T; Chodkiewicz, T.; Chylarecki, P.; Crowe, O.; Elts, J.; Escandell, V.

    2016-01-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. ...

  13. Detecting climate-change responses of plants and soil organic matter using isotopomers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleucher, Jürgen; Ehlers, Ina; Segura, Javier; Haei, Mahsa; Augusti, Angela; Köhler, Iris; Zuidema, Pieter; Nilsson, Mats; Öquist, Mats

    2015-04-01

    Responses of vegetation and soils to environmental changes will strongly influence future climate, and responses on century time scales are most important for feedbacks on the carbon cycle, climate models, prediction of crop productivity, and for adaptation to climate change. That plants respond to increasing CO2 on century time scales has been proven by changes in stomatal index, but very little is known beyond this. In soil, the complexity of soil organic matter (SOM) has hampered a sufficient understanding of the temperature sensitivity of SOM turnover. Here we present new stable isotope methodology that allows detecting shifts in metabolism on long time scales, and elucidating SOM turnover on the molecular level. Compound-specific isotope analysis measures isotope ratios of defined metabolites, but as average of the entire molecule. Here we demonstrate how much more detailed information can be obtained from analyses of intramolecular distributions of stable isotopes, so-called isotopomer abundances. As key tool, we use nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, which allows detecting isotope abundance with intramolecular resolution and without risk for isotope fractionation during analysis. Enzyme isotope fractionations create non-random isotopomer patterns in biochemical metabolites. At natural isotope abundance, these patterns continuously store metabolic information. We present a strategy how these patterns can be used as to extract signals on plant physiology, climate variables, and their interactions. Applied in retrospective analyses to herbarium samples and tree-ring series, we detect century-time-scale metabolic changes in response to increasing atmospheric CO2, with no evidence for acclimatory reactions by the plants. In trees, the increase in photosynthesis expected from increasing CO2 ("CO2 fertilization) was diminished by increasing temperatures, which resolves the discrepancy between expected increases in photosynthesis and commonly observed

  14. Hydrologic response of Upper Ganga basin under changing land use and climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujumdar, P.; Chawla, I.

    2013-12-01

    In the backdrop of recent devastation caused by flooding of the Ganga River in the upstream reaches of Uttarakhand region, India, it has become necessary to understand the implications of climate variability and human induced changes in landscape on the hydrology of the region. The present study assesses the effect of changing land use and climate on the hydrology of the Upper Ganga basin (UGB) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Initially, the temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) of the region are identified using high resolution multispectral satellite imageries from Landsat, for the years 1973, 1980, 2000 and 2011. The LULC analysis results show an increase in crop land and urban area in the region by 47% and 122% respectively from 1973 to 2011. After an initial decline in dense forest for three decades (from 14.5% in 1973 to 11.44% in 2000), a slight increase in dense forest is observed between 2000- 2011,from 11.44% to 14.8%. The scrub forest area and the barren land are observed to decline in the study region by 62% and 96% respectively since 1973. The land cover information along with meteorological data and soil data are used to drive the VIC model to investigate the impact of LULC changes on hydrological processes such as streamflow, baseflow, evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture in the UGB. For the simulation purpose, the basin is divided into three regions: (1) upstream, (2) midstream and (3) downstream. The VIC model is calibrated and validated for all the three regions independently at monthly time scale. The model outputs from the three regions are aggregated appropriately to generate the hydrologic response of the entire UGB. Using the calibrated model for the three regions of the UGB, sensitivity analysis is performed by generating hydrologic scenarios corresponding to different land use (LU) and climate conditions. The results from an experiment in which the climate is held constant at 1971 level and effect of

  15. Rising methane emissions in response to climate change in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to examine the methane (CH4) exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in Northern Eurasia from 1971 to 2100. Multiple model simulations using various wetland extent datasets and climate change scenarios were conducted to assess the uncertainty of CH4 fluxes, including emissions and consumption. On the basis of these simulations we estimate the current net emissions in the region to be 20–24 Tg CH4 yr−1 (1 Tg = 1012 g), two-thirds of which are emitted during the summer. In response to climate change over the 21st century, the annual CH4 emissions in the region are projected to increase at a rate of 0.06 Tg CH4 yr−1, which is an order of magnitude greater than that of annual CH4 consumption. Further, the annual net CH4 emissions are projected to increase by 6–51% under various wetland extent datasets and climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, relative to present conditions. Spatial patterns of net CH4 emissions were determined by wetland extent. Net CH4 emissions were dominated by wetlands within boreal forests, grasslands and wet tundra areas in the region. Correlation analyses indicated that water table depth and soil temperature were the two most important environmental controls on both CH4 emissions and consumption in the region. Our uncertainty analyses indicated that the uncertainty in wetland extent had a larger effect on future CH4 emissions than the uncertainty in future climate. This study suggests that better characterization of the spatial distribution and the natural diversity of wetlands should be a research priority for quantifying CH4 fluxes in this region.

  16. Climate change and farmers responses in rural china, lessons for Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.P. van Dijk (Meine Pieter)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractHow does China deal with the consequences of climate change and can we learn from that experience in Africa? Important external drivers in China such as rapid economic growth, urbanization, climate change and a growing awareness of environmental degradation have contributed to a shift in

  17. Responses to Climate Change: Exploring Organisational Learning across Internationally Networked Organisations for Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Emily; Osbahr, Henny

    2010-01-01

    Drawing from the organisational learning and governance literature, this paper assesses four internationally networked governmental and non-governmental organisations in the UK addressing climate change. We analyse how those concerned understand the climate change crisis, what mechanisms are put in place to address information flows, and what…

  18. Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Hurlbert; J. Gupta

    2016-01-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to clima

  19. Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelikova, Tamara J.; Hufbauer, Ruth A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Wertin, Timothy M.; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

    2013-01-01

    How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct

  20. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

  1. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends. PMID:27034371

  2. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemyslaw; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P.B.; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G.; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; Van Strien, Arco; van Turnhout, Chris A.M.; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G.

    2016-01-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

  3. Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Changchun; CHEN Yaning; LI Weihong; CHEN Yapeng

    2006-01-01

    Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50years are the focus of more and more researchers'attention. In this paper, both temperature and precipitation time series were found to present a monotonic increasing trend using nonparametric tests.Noticeably, a significant step change in both temperature and precipitation time series occurred in 1986. By contrasting the trends of natural water process in headstream and mainstream, we found that it was anthropogenic activities not climate change that caused the river dried up and vegetation degenerated in the lower reaches of Tarim River. The results of gray correlation analysis show that the runoff of higher latitude distributing river is more closely associated with winter snow stocking, while that of lower latitude is more closely related to summer temperature. Runoff in the headstream is more sensitive to precipitation, while that in the mainstream is more sensitive to evaporation. The strong evaporation caused by increasing temperature weakened runoff to some extent in spite of the fact that precipitation increased over the past 50 years.

  4. Electricity for groundwater use: constraints and opportunities for adaptive response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Globally, groundwater use is intensifying to meet demands for irrigation, urban supply, industrialization, and, in some instances, electrical power generation. In response to hydroclimatic variability, surface water is being substituted with groundwater, which must be viewed as a strategic resource for climate adaptation. In this sense, the supply of electricity for pumping is an adaptation policy tool. Additionally, planning for climate-change mitigation must consider CO2 emissions resulting from pumping. This paper examines the influence of electricity supply and pricing on groundwater irrigation and resulting emissions, with specific reference to Mexico—a climate–water–energy ‘perfect storm’. Night-time power supply at tariffs below the already-subsidized rates for agricultural groundwater use has caused Mexican farmers to increase pumping, reversing important water and electricity conservation gains achieved. Indiscriminate groundwater pumping, including for virtual water exports of agricultural produce, threatens the long-term sustainability of aquifers, non-agricultural water uses, and stream–aquifer interactions that sustain riparian ecosystems. Emissions resulting from agricultural groundwater pumping in Mexico are estimated to be 3.6% of total national emissions and are equivalent to emissions from transporting the same agricultural produce to market. The paper concludes with an assessment of energy, water, and climate trends coupled with policy futures to address these challenges. (letter)

  5. Wetlands as a Record of Climate Change and Hydrological Response in Arid Rift Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley, G. M.

    2004-12-01

    Of all the terrestrial depositional settings, rift basins typically provide the greatest accommodation space, and consequently have some of the longest records of continental sedimentation. Lake deposits were the only rift component studied for records of long-term climatic change and for testing hypotheses of orbital forcing. Recently, the continuing quest for the paleontological and cultural records of human origins entombed in the sedimentary rocks of the East African Rift System raised questions concerning hydrologic and biologic response to climatic change. Additional issues are the impact of climate on paleolandscapes and the environmental stresses that might have affected human evolution. Other important indicators of rift hydrology, such as springs and wetlands are now emerging as viable records of climate change. Rift valley basins are shallow, hydrologically closed systems that are responsive to shifts in climate, and specifically sensitive to changes in the hydrologic budget (P-ET). Long term wet-dry cycles in the low latitudes are thought to be astronomically controlled, i.e. Milankovitch precession cycles (19-23 ka). In the tropics, precipitation (P) varies with changes in solar insolation which fluctuates similarly. Springs and groundwater-fed wetlands are common, however the sources and sustainability of water or what geologic factors lead to the formation and longevity of wetlands is not well established. It appears that rainfall is trapped on topographic highs (rift fault blocks and volcanoes). This meteoric water infiltrates quickly through porous volcanic rocks and is stored in aquifers and released slowly. As a component of the rift hydrologic system, wetlands appear to be reliable indicators of rainfall fluctuations on both Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch time scales. Wetland sediments are commoner in the geologic record during times of higher rainfall and are less common during drier periods. Modern arid rift wetland records are peats and

  6. Assessing the Response of Nematode Communities to Climate Change-Driven Warming: A Microcosm Experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Gingold

    Full Text Available Biodiversity has diminished over the past decades with climate change being among the main responsible factors. One consequence of climate change is the increase in sea surface temperature, which, together with long exposure periods in intertidal areas, may exceed the tolerance level of benthic organisms. Benthic communities may suffer structural changes due to the loss of species or functional groups, putting ecological services at risk. In sandy beaches, free-living marine nematodes usually are the most abundant and diverse group of intertidal meiofauna, playing an important role in the benthic food web. While apparently many functionally similar nematode species co-exist temporally and spatially, experimental results on selected bacterivore species suggest no functional overlap, but rather an idiosyncratic contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, we hypothesize that functional redundancy is more likely to observe when taking into account the entire diversity of natural assemblages. We conducted a microcosm experiment with two natural communities to assess their stress response to elevated temperature. The two communities differed in diversity (high [HD] vs. low [LD] and environmental origin (harsh vs. moderate conditions. We assessed their stress resistance to the experimental treatment in terms of species and diversity changes, and their function in terms of abundance, biomass, and trophic diversity. According to the Insurance Hypothesis, we hypothesized that the HD community would cope better with the stressful treatment due to species functional overlap, whereas the LD community functioning would benefit from species better adapted to harsh conditions. Our results indicate no evidence of functional redundancy in the studied nematofaunal communities. The species loss was more prominent and size specific in the HD; large predators and omnivores were lost, which may have important consequences for the benthic food web. Yet, we found

  7. Synchronism of runoff response to climate change in Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang, Northwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jie Xue; JiaQiang Lei; DongWei Gui; JianPing Zhao; DongLei Mao; Jie Zhou

    2016-01-01

    The runoff in alpine river basins where the runoff is formed in nearby mountainous areas is mainly affected by temperature and precipitation. Based on observed annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff time-series datasets during 1958–2012 within the Kaidu River Basin, the synchronism of runoff response to climate change was analyzed and iden-tified by applying several classic methods, including standardization methods, Kendall's W test, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test, wavelet power spectrum analysis, and the rescaled range (R/S) approach. The concordance of the nonlinear trend variations of the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff was tested significantly at the 0.05 level by Kendall's W method. The sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with those of annual mean temperature. The periodic characteristics of annual runoff were mainly consistent with annual precipitation, having synchronous 3-year significant periods and the same 6-year, 10-year, and 38-year quasi-periodicities. While the periodic characteristics of annual runoff in the Kaidu River Basin tracked well with those of annual precipitation, the abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with the annual mean temperature, which directly drives glacier- and snow-melt processes. R/S analysis indicated that the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff will continue to increase and remain synchronously persistent in the future. This work can im-prove the understanding of runoff response to regional climate change to provide a viable reference in the management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin, a regional sustainable socio-economic development.

  8. A Prototype Indicators System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Gerst, M.; Lloyd, A.; Wolfinger, J. F.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.; Pouyat, R. V.

    2015-12-01

    Indicators are observations or calculations that are used to systematically report or forecast social and biophysical conditions over time. When the purpose of indicators is to, in part, provide complex scientific information that is understood by non-scientists and included in decision processes, the choice of indicators requires a structured process that includes co-production among a range of actors, including scientists, decision-makers, and a range of stakeholders. Here we describe recommendations on a vision and a prototype created for an indicators system, we term the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). The goal of the NCIS is to create a system of physical, natural, and societal indicators to communicate and inform decisions about climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The process of generating the indicator system involved input from over 200 subject-matter experts. Organized into 13 teams, experts created conceptual models of their respective sectors to generate an initial recommended set of indicators. A subset of indicators, which could be immediately implemented, were prototyped for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) a Federal program that coordinates and supports integration of global change research across the government. USGCRP reviewed the recommendations (Kenney et al., 2014) and prototypes provided by the scientific experts, and recently launched 14 indicators as proof-of-concept in support of a sustained National Climate Assessment and to solicit feedback from the users. Social science research is currently being undertaken in order to evaluate how well the prototype indicators communicate science to non-scientists, the usability of indicator system portal by scientists and decision-makers, and the development of information visualization guidelines to improve visual communication effectiveness. The goal of such efforts would be to provide input into the development of a more comprehensive USGCRP indicator

  9. Increasing biological diversity in a dynamic vegetation model and consequences for simulated response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keribin, R. M.; Friend, A. D.; Purves, D.; Smith, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    Vegetation, from tropical rainforests to the tundra, is the basis of the world food chain but is also a key component of the Earth system, with biophysical and biogeochemical impacts on the global climate, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important integrative tool for understanding its responses to climate change. DGVMs up to now have treated only a small number of plant types representing broad divisions in vegetation worldwide (e.g. trees and grasses, broadleaf and needleleaf, deciduousness), but these categories ignore most of the variation that exists between plant species and between individuals within a species. Research in community ecology makes it clear however that these variations can affect large-scale ecosystem properties such as productivity and resilience to environmental changes. The current challenge is for DGVMs to account for fine-grained variations between plants and a few such models are being developed using newly-available plant trait databases such as the TRY database and insights from community ecology such as habitat filtering. Hybrid is an individual-based DGVM, first published in 1993, that models plant physiology in a mechanistic way. We modified Hybrid 8, the latest version of the model which uses surface physics taken from the GISS ModelE GCM, to include a mechanistic gap-model component with individual-based variation in tree wood density. This key plant trait is known to be strongly correlated with a trade-off between growth and mortality in the majority of forests worldwide, which allows for otherwise-similar individuals to have different life-history strategies. We investigate how the inclusion of continuous variation in wood density into the model affects the ecosystem's transient dynamics under climate change.

  10. Response of Step-pool Mountain Channels to Wildfire Under Changing Climate-fire Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, A.; O'Dowd, A. P.; Storesund, R.; Parker, A.; Roberts-Niemann, C.

    2013-12-01

    The western U.S. is becoming more susceptible to wildfire, even though wildfires have occurred throughout history and pre-history. Warming climates leading to drier conditions have increased the occurrence of wildfires. Fire suppression policies throughout the twentieth century have also allowed fuel loads to build and increased the potential for larger and more frequent fires. These trends have growing impacts on human society, as evidenced in increasing number of structures destroyed and related costs of firefighting and resulting damages. Besides the first-order effects of wildfire, such as burned vegetation and reduced infiltration capacities, changing climate-fire regimes have significant indirect effects on hydrologic and geomorphologic responses. This contribution explores how these changes affect the stability and functioning of step-pool mountain streams in the context of landscape evolution. Step-pool systems are stable features adjusted to the prevailing flow and channel morphology, serving important functions of energy dissipation in high-energy environments. Steps and pools are also important ecologically, as they provide diverse habitats for sensitive organisms. Whereas step-pool channels are typically restructured by flows with recurrence intervals often exceeding 50 years, these flows are reached more frequently under changing climate-fire regimes. Following the Waldo Canyon Fire of June/July 2012, one of several recent wildfires that spread along the Colorado Front Range, we track the stability, destruction, and re-development of step-pool systems in two basins in Pike National Forest using terrestrial LiDAR scanning and surveys of longitudinal profiles and cross sections. We document how the first geomorphologically significant event on 1 July 2013 obliterated the step-pool structure in Williams Canyon, widened river channels and lowered channel beds by as much as one meter. Changes in ecological character accompanied the conversion of channel

  11. Net root growth and nutrient acquisition in response to predicted climate change in two contrasting heathland species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndal, M.F.; Merrild, M.P.; Michelsen, A.;

    2013-01-01

    to elevated CO2. The species-specific response to the treatments suggests different sensitivity to global change factors, which could result in changed plant competitive interactions and belowground nutrient pool sizes in response to future climate change.......Accurate predictions of nutrient acquisition by plant roots and mycorrhizas are critical in modelling plant responses to climate change.We conducted a field experiment with the aim to investigate root nutrient uptake in a future climate and studied root production by ingrowth cores, mycorrhizal...... colonization, and fine root N and P uptake by root assay of Deschampsia flexuosa and Calluna vulgaris.Net root growth increased under elevated CO2, warming and drought, with additive effects among the factors. Arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization increased in response to elevated CO2, while ericoid mycorrhizal...

  12. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  13. The responses of tropical forest species to global climate change: acclimate, adapt, migrate, or go extinct?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Machovina

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In the face of ongoing and future climate change, species must acclimate, adapt or shift their geographic distributions (i.e., "migrate" in order to avoid habitat loss and eventual extinction. Perhaps nowhere are the challenges posed by climate change more poignant and daunting than in tropical forests, which harbor the majority of Earth’s species and are facing especially rapid rates of climate change relative to current spatial or temporal variability. Due to the rapid changes in climate predicted for the tropics, coupled with the apparently low capacities of tropical tree species to either acclimate or adapt to sustained changes in environmental conditions, it is believed that the greatest hope for avoiding the loss of biodiversity in tropical forest is species migrations. This is supported by the fact that topical forests responded to historic changes in climate (e.g., post glacial warming through distributional shifts. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains as to if tropical plant and tree species can migrate, and if so, if they can migrate at the rates required to keep pace with accelerating changes in multiple climatic factors in conjunction with ongoing deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances. In order to resolve this uncertainty, as will be required to predict, and eventually mitigate, the impacts of global climate change on tropical and global biodiversity, more basic data is required on the distributions and ecologies of tens of thousands of plants species in combination with more directed studies and large-scale experimental manipulations.

  14. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  15. Sustainable forest management and impacts on forest responses to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stover, D. B.; Parker, G.; Riutta, T.; Capretz, R.; Murthy, I.; Haibao, R.; Bebber, D.

    2009-12-01

    Impacts from human activities at varying scales and intensities have a profound influence on forest carbon dynamics in addition to interactions with climate. As such, forest carbon stocks and fluxes are among the least well-defined elements of the global carbon cycle, and great uncertainty remains in predicting the effect of climate change on forest dynamics. In some cases, these management-climate interactions are well known, but often represent a fundamental gap in our understanding of ecosystem responses and are likely to be important in improving modeling of climate change, and in valuing forest carbon. To improve understanding of human induced forest management-climate interactions, a network of permanent study plots has been established in five sites around the world - in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. The sites are near larger global monitoring (Smithsonian CTFS) plots to facilitate comparisons. At each site, a series of 1-ha plots have been placed in forest stands with differing management regimes and histories. Utilizing citizen scientists from HSBC bank, all trees >5 cm dbh are tagged, mapped, identified to species, and diameter is recorded within each plot. A subset of trees have dendrometer bands attached, to record seasonal growth. Dead wood and litterfall samples are taken, and microclimate is recorded with automatic sensors. Serial measurements will allow correlation of forest dynamics with weather. Although the studies are at an early stage current results indicate above-ground biomass estimates are 102-288 Mg ha-1 for intermediate and mature Liriodendron tulipifera-dominated stands in the US, respectively. In India, mature semi-natural evergreen forests biomass estimates are 192-235 Mg ha-1 while plantation and semi-natural core forests in the UK are estimated at 211-292 Mg ha-1. Successional Atlantic forests in Brazil are estimated to contain 192-235 Mg ha-1. In the US, initial results have demonstrated dramatic differences in microclimate

  16. Bridging the Divide: Linking Genomics to Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Melinda D.

    2014-03-15

    Over the project period, we have addressed the following objectives: 1) assess the effects of altered precipitation patterns (i.e., increased variability in growing season precipitation) on genetic diversity of the dominant C4 grass species, Andropogon gerardii, and 2) experimentally assess the impacts of extreme climatic events (heat wave, drought) on responses of the dominant C4 grasses, A. gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans, and the consequences of these response for community and ecosystem structure and function. Below is a summary of how we have addressed these objectives. Objective 1 After ten years of altered precipitation, we found the number of genotypes of A. gerardii was significantly reduced compared to the ambient precipitation treatments (Avolio et al., 2013a). Although genotype number was reduced, the remaining genotypes were less related to one another indicating that the altered precipitation treatment was selecting for increasingly dissimilar genomes (based on mean pairwise Dice distance among individuals). For the four key genotypes that displayed differential abundances depending on the precipitation treatment (G1, G4, and G11 in the altered plots and G2 in the ambient plots), we identified phenotypic differences in the field that could account for ecological sorting (Avolio & Smith, 2013a). The three altered rainfall genotypes also have very different phenotypic traits in the greenhouse in response to different soil moisture availabilities (Avolio and Smith, 2013c). Two of the genotypes that increased in abundance in the altered precipitation plots had greater allocation to root biomass (G4 and G11), while G1 allocated more biomass aboveground. These phenotypic differences among genotypes suggests that changes in genotypic structure between the altered and the ambient treatments has likely occurred via niche differentiation, driven by changes in soil moisture dynamics (reduced mean, increased variability and changes in the depth distribution of

  17. Land surface phenological responses to land use and climate variation in a changing Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kariyeva, Jahan

    During the last few decades Central Asia has experienced widespread changes in land cover and land use following the socio-economic and institutional transformations of the region catalyzed by the USSR collapse in 1991. The decade-long drought events and steadily increasing temperature regimes in the region came on top of these institutional transformations, affecting the long term and landscape scale vegetation responses. This research is based on the need to better understand the potential ecological and policy implications of climate variation and land use practices in the contexts of landscape-scale changes dynamics and variability patterns of land surface phenology responses in Central Asia. The land surface phenology responses -- the spatio-temporal dynamics of terrestrial vegetation derived from the remotely sensed data -- provide measurements linked to the timing of vegetation growth cycles (e.g., start of growing season) and total vegetation productivity over the growing season, which are used as a proxy for the assessment of effects of variations in environmental settings. Local and regional scale assessment of the before and after the USSR collapse vegetation response patterns in the natural and agricultural systems of the Central Asian drylands was conducted to characterize newly emerging links (since 1991) between coupled human and natural systems, e.g., socio-economic and policy drivers of altered land and water use and distribution patterns. Spatio-temporal patterns of bioclimatic responses were examined to determine how phenology is associated with temperature and precipitation in different land use types, including rainfed and irrigated agricultural types. Phenological models were developed to examine relationship between environmental drivers and effect of their altitudinal and latitudinal gradients on the broad-scale vegetation response patterns in non-cropland ecosystems of the desert, steppe, and mountainous regional landscapes of Central Asia

  18. Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, Megan A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Oliver, Matthew J.

    2016-06-01

    The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species’ geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) is a circumpolar meso-predator exposed to the full range of Antarctic climate and is undergoing dramatic population shifts coincident with climate change. We used true presence-absence data on Adélie penguin breeding colonies to estimate past and future changes in habitat suitability during the chick-rearing period based on historic satellite observations and future climate model projections. During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. However, climate model projections suggest refugia may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, buffering species-wide declines. Climate change impacts on penguins in the Antarctic will likely be highly site specific based on regional climate trends, and a southward contraction in the range of Adélie penguins is likely over the next century.

  19. Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, Megan A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Oliver, Matthew J.

    2016-01-01

    The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species’ geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) is a circumpolar meso-predator exposed to the full range of Antarctic climate and is undergoing dramatic population shifts coincident with climate change. We used true presence-absence data on Adélie penguin breeding colonies to estimate past and future changes in habitat suitability during the chick-rearing period based on historic satellite observations and future climate model projections. During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. However, climate model projections suggest refugia may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, buffering species-wide declines. Climate change impacts on penguins in the Antarctic will likely be highly site specific based on regional climate trends, and a southward contraction in the range of Adélie penguins is likely over the next century. PMID:27352849

  20. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; M. Eby; Oschlies, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate ...

  1. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  2. Response of durum wheat to water variability under climate change scenarios in southern Sardinia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soddu, Antonino; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Meloni, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Ludwig, Ralf; Sodde, Marcella; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Perra, Enrica

    2013-04-01

    Durum wheat is the most important C3 rainfed crop in southern Sardinia, Italy and is highly vulnerable to climate variability. This region has experienced severe drought conditions and problems of competing water demands during the last decades. Within the framework of European (1) and Regional (2) research projects, a study was conducted to evaluate the effects of increased maximum temperature and high rainfall variability on durum wheat yield, as part of an effort to devise strategies for water management and adaptation at the field and catchment scales in southern Sardinia. Towards this goal, the AquaCrop model was calibrated and its predictive performance was tested in the period from 1995 to 2012 using daily meteorological data and durum wheat (CV Creso) yield measurements from the experimental fields of the Agris Research Agency in Ussana (Sardinia, Italy). During the verification period, the model showed a good performance with a significant correlation between observed and simulated yield for durum wheat and a very good estimation of the water stress conditions during the drought period in 1995. Next, four future scenarios of climate change were simulated with AquaCrop to predict wheat yield responses and to investigate water availability for rainfed and irrigated crops for the 30-year periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The simulated future scenarios show potential improved productivity arising from the increased CO2 concentration. This positive outlook is however tempered by increased uncertainty and fluctuations in rainfall during the fall and early winter periods (September-December). The possible tradeoffs between these factors, as well as the expected negative effects of increased maximum temperatures, are being further examined. (1) Climate Induced Changes in the Mediterranean Region (CLIMB), funded by the European Commission 7th Framework Program. (2) Valutazione degli impatti sul comportamento idrologico dei bacini idrografici e sulle

  3. Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark de Bruyn

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ. This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

  4. Response to Out of Balance: The risk of irreversible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Standing Committee on Environment of the Canadian House of Commons tabled a report entitled Out of Balance, which was an investigation of issues related to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and possible responses to impending climatic change. The government's response to the recommendations made in that report are presented. The framework to the government's response is first introduced, which includes the National Action Strategy on Global Warming (NASGW) that provides a strategy for Canadian initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The strategy is based on the fundamental principles of comprehensiveness, the importance of international agreements, and flexibility. The Standing Committee's recommendations focused on policies to limit Canadian emissions of carbon dioxide, one of the major greenhouse gases. Canadian policies to achieve this goal are being implemented in the Green Plan and the NASGW. Other recommendations and responses involve environmental education, greenhouse gas data collection, phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons, natural gas leakage, energy conservation and demand management, regulatory systems, fuel efficiency standards, forest management, greenhouse gas emissions from federal departments and agencies, and encouragement of environmentally acceptable technologies

  5. Impacts of climate change on tourism in the Mediterranean. Adaptive responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perry, A. [University of Wales Swansea, Swansea, Wales (United Kingdom)

    2000-05-01

    Key sensitivities to Mediterranean tourism include drought and heat waves, both of which are likely to increase with projected greenhouse warming. Adaptive responses must include lengthening of the present season and particularly taking care to cater for the increasing number of older people in the population of Northern European countries who will demand high environmental and accommodation standards and look for more bespoke holidays than the mass market tourist. Climate change in Northern Europe may affect the push-pull factors which currently favour a summer peak of tourists in many Mediterranean destinations. Infra structure and beaches may well be at risk from sea level rise and there are likely to be increased problems from forest fires, water supplies and hygiene.

  6. Impacts of climate change on tourism in the Mediterranean. Adaptive responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Key sensitivities to Mediterranean tourism include drought and heat waves, both of which are likely to increase with projected greenhouse warming. Adaptive responses must include lengthening of the present season and particularly taking care to cater for the increasing number of older people in the population of Northern European countries who will demand high environmental and accommodation standards and look for more bespoke holidays than the mass market tourist. Climate change in Northern Europe may affect the push-pull factors which currently favour a summer peak of tourists in many Mediterranean destinations. Infra structure and beaches may well be at risk from sea level rise and there are likely to be increased problems from forest fires, water supplies and hygiene

  7. Preventive strategy in response to climate change and infrastructural failures for Jakarta slum dwellers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Pooroe

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Jakarta is a city with unpredictable yet annual water shortages, both during the dry and wet season, which disproportionately affect the urban poor. One possible solution is to redevelop the existing water supply system which is now working in one of the largest slum area in Penjaringan, North Jakarta. This system is equipped with a large meter, the Master Meter, to record the communal water consumption and individual meters to record household consumptions. The Community Based Organization uses, operates, and maintains the system based on agreement with water users. Improvement of the Master Meter is achieved by harvesting uncollected rain water during the wet season with its high rainfall intensity, modifying the water storage system and improving the influent water quality. This paper aims to provide a preventive strategy in response to climate change and infrastructural failures based on a case study of community-based water supply project in Penjaringan, Jakarta.

  8. The response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River, Florida to climate and land use land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovenga, Paige A.; Wang, Dingbao; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Hagen, Scott C.; Alizad, Karim

    2016-05-01

    The response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River under projected climate change scenarios and land use land cover (LULC) change is evaluated. A hydrologic model using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was developed for the Apalachicola region to simulate daily runoff and sediment load under present (circa 2000) and future conditions (2100) to understand how parameters respond over a seasonal time frame to changes in climate, LULC, and coupled climate/LULC. The Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator was used to downscale temperature and precipitation from three general circulation models, each under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission scenarios A2, A1B, and B1. Projected 2100 LULC data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center was incorporated for each corresponding IPCC scenario. Results indicate that climate change may induce seasonal shifts to both runoff and sediment loading. Changes in LULC showed that more sediment load was associated with increased agriculture and urban areas and decreased forested regions. A nonlinear response for both runoff and sediment loading was observed by coupling climate and LULC change, suggesting that both should be incorporated into hydrologic models when studying the future conditions. The outcomes from this research can be used to better guide management practices and mitigation strategies.

  9. Challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husaini, Amjad M

    2014-01-01

    Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

  10. Terrestrial Responses to Holocene Climatic Change on the Eastern Seaboard of Newfoundland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, P.; Daley, T.; Blundell, A.; Charman, D.; Barber, K.; Street-Perrott, A.; Loader, N.; Odoni, N.; Chambers, F.

    2006-12-01

    Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Atlantic region are a high priority research issue because of their key relationship with ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) and patterns of regional and global climatic change. Whilst we are beginning to understand the nature and magnitude of past changes in ocean circulation in the Atlantic region, there is a rather poor understanding of the terrestrial responses to these events. The Atlantic provinces of Canada are located in a key area for this research, lying at the boundary between `polar' and `Atlantic' water masses. The so-called `8.2ka Event' is the best known example of variability in ocean circulation and climate, forced by melt water flows from the Laurentide ice sheet. It is widely thought, therefore, that the marine sediments of the Laurentian Fan region of the North Atlantic Ocean should closely reflect discharge of meltwater and ice rafting during the major climatic events of the early-Holocene (Keigwin et al., 2005). Likewise, the on-shore area of this same region, adjacent to the meltwater transit routes, should also show a strong response to meltwater and ice rafting events. We report research that shows that the plateau bogs of Newfoundland hold sensitive records of palaeohydrological change that can be related to palaeoclimatic events. Multi-proxy reconstructions of past bog surface wetness reveal a distinctive pool phase at 8.2 ka and on 13 further occasions through the Holocene, culminating with the Little Ice Age. Few sphagnum-dominated ombrotrophic communities have been recorded on the circum-Atlantic seaboards at 8.2ka. The existence of these assemblages in Newfoundland presents the opportunity to derive oxygen isotopic reconstructions across the '8.2 ka Event' for a terrestrial genus that has an intimate coupling with the atmosphere. Here we report genus-specific analyses of delta 18O from an ombrotrophic peat bog. The results show that the `8.2 ka Event' in Newfoundland was short (ca. 100

  11. Water yield responses to climate change and variability across the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Nan; Sun, Ge; Feng, Xiaoming; Fu, Bojie

    2013-02-01

    SummaryChina is facing a growing water crisis due to climate and land use change, and rise in human water demand across this rapidly developing country. Understanding the spatial and temporal ecohydrologic responses to climate change is critical to sustainable water resource management. We investigated water yield (WY) responses to historical (1981-2000) and projected potential climate changes across a large and complex climatic and land cover gradients over the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC, a standard terrestrial transect of the International GeoBiological Project, IGBP). After an annual scale evapotranspiration (ET) model was validated with historical streamflow records from ten watersheds, the model was applied to the NSTEC that encompasses seven climatic zones. We found that (1) The spatial and temporal variations of WY were highly dependent on precipitation (P) patterns during 1981-2000. Overall, the influences of significant temperature (T) rise on the trend of WY were suppressed by the insignificant P change during 1981-2000. (2) The long-term mean WY by climatic zone had a similar pattern as P. The different climatic zones had differential contributions to the total volumetric WY of the NSTEC. Within each climatic zone, the volumetric WY for each land cover type was highly dependent on its area of each land cover. (3) Corresponding to the P pattern, the mean WY decreased from the low (South) to high latitude (North), but the rates of changes varied along the NSTEC. Along the NSTEC, the sensitivity of WY to potential T and P changes increased from the high latitude to the low latitude. Future potential changes in WY are likely to follow changes in P with some modification by changes in energy availability. We conclude that precipitation is a major driver for water resource availability, and reliable prediction of future precipitation change patterns is critical to hydrologic forecast across the study region.

  12. Temporal responses of peak citrus flowering to climate change in Iran: 1960-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitchett, Jennifer; Grab, Stefan; Thompson, Dave; Roshan, GholamReza

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies investigating floral and faunal phenological responses to climate change have highlighted the extent to which these relationships are species and location specific. This study investigates temporal responses of citrus peak flowering to climate change in the cities of Kerman, Shiraz and Gorgan, Iran. Phenological data comprise peak flowering dates of five citrus types: orange (Citrus x sinensis), tangerine (Citrus x tangerine), sweet lemon (Citrus limetta), sour lemon (Citrus x limon) and sour orange (Citrus x aurantium). These were collected daily from government heritage gardens located within each of the three cities, and archived by a private Iranian company, for the period 1960-2010. For the same period, daily Tmax, Tmin, rainfall and sunshine hour data were acquired from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. Time trend analyses were undertaken for both the phenological and meteorological data, followed by linear regression to determine the nature and extent of any relationships between these variables. We find that the mean peak flowering dates, and their long-term trends over the 51-year period, are very similar amongst the five citrus types within each city, but demonstrate significant differences between cities. Flowering date advances of 0.12-0.17d/yr are recorded for Kerman, and more rapid advances of 0.56-0.65d/yr for Shiraz. Notable progressive delays in flowering dates occur in Gorgan (0.05-0.1d/yr). The peak flowering dates of citrus in the former two cities demonstrate strong relationships with mean annual Tmin, ranging from r = 0.46-0.61 (p = 0002; p agricultural planning and fruit crop supply to local and international markets.

  13. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by −10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles. (letter)

  14. Global glacial fluctuations in response to climatic change in the past 40 a

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁永建

    1996-01-01

    Analyses on glacier fluctuations for the past 40 a show that glacial fluctuations were obviously regional over the world. Amplitudes of glacier fluctuations were smaller in northern Europe and high Asia (H Asia) regions than in northern America and the Alps regions. Retreating glaciers were dominant in northern European and high Asia regions, while remarkable glacial advance emerged in different periods in northern America and the Alps regions. Sensitivity of glaciers in the varying scales to climatic change was different. Time lag for reactions to climatic change between larger glaciers (length >5 km) and smaller glaciers (length≤ 5km) has been found. In the globe, glacial fluctuations well correspond to climatic change. Fluctuation lags behind climatic change were about 8 a for larger glaciers and about 2 a for smaller glaciers.

  15. Geoengineering Responses to Climate Change Selected Entries from the Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology

    CERN Document Server

    Vaughan, Naomi

    2013-01-01

    Failure by the international community to make substantive progress in reducing CO2 emissions, coupled with recent evidence of accelerating climate change, has brought increasing urgency to the search for additional remediation approaches.  This book presents a selection of state-of-the-art geoengineering methods for deliberately reducing the effects of anthropogenic climate change, either by actively removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or by decreasing the amount of sunlight absorbed at the Earth’s surface.  These methods contrast with more conventional mitigation approaches which focus on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. Geoengineering technologies could become a key tool to be used in conjunction with emissions reduction to limit the magnitude of climate change.  Featuring authoritative, peer-reviewed entries from the Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology, this book presents a wide range of climate change remediation technologies. Examines th...

  16. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengis, N.; Keller, D. P.; Eby, M.; Oschlies, A.

    2015-09-01

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by -10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles.

  17. Responses of ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change treatments along an elevation gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhuoting; Koch, George W.; Dijkstra, Paul; Bowker, Matthew A.; Hungate, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    Global temperature increases and precipitation changes are both expected to alter ecosystem carbon (C) cycling. We tested responses of ecosystem C cycling to simulated climate change using field manipulations of temperature and precipitation across a range of grass-dominated ecosystems along an elevation gradient in northern Arizona. In 2002, we transplanted intact plant–soil mesocosms to simulate warming and used passive interceptors and collectors to manipulate precipitation. We measured daytime ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem C exchange throughout the growing season in 2008 and 2009. Warming generally stimulated ER and photosynthesis, but had variable effects on daytime net C exchange. Increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C cycling only in the driest ecosystem at the lowest elevation, whereas decreased precipitation showed no effects on ecosystem C cycling across all ecosystems. No significant interaction between temperature and precipitation treatments was observed. Structural equation modeling revealed that in the wetter-than-average year of 2008, changes in ecosystem C cycling were more strongly affected by warming-induced reduction in soil moisture than by altered precipitation. In contrast, during the drier year of 2009, warming induced increase in soil temperature rather than changes in soil moisture determined ecosystem C cycling. Our findings suggest that warming exerted the strongest influence on ecosystem C cycling in both years, by modulating soil moisture in the wet year and soil temperature in the dry year.

  18. NEW INSTITUTIONAL TASKS TO EFFICIENT RESPONSE AGAINST THE ECOLOGICAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucretia Mariana Constantinescu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a priority for the European Union. The strategies and plans developed into European Union aims to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, while encouraging other nations and regions to do the same. Meanwhile, the European Union develops strategies for adapting to climate changes, which can’t be prevented. These strategies are certainly a significant cost but doing nothing will be more expensive on the long term.

  19. Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect

  20. Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

    2012-11-01

    Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

  1. The People Paradox: Self-Esteem Striving, Immortality Ideologies, and Human Response to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janis L. Dickinson

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available In 1973, Ernest Becker, a cultural anthropologist cross-trained in philosophy, sociology, and psychiatry, invoked consciousness of self and the inevitability of death as the primary sources of human anxiety and repression. He proposed that the psychological basis of cooperation, competition, and emotional and mental health is a tendency to hold tightly to anxiety-buffering cultural world views or “immortality projects” that serve as the basis for self-esteem and meaning. Although he focused mainly on social and political outcomes like war, torture, and genocide, he was increasingly aware that materialism, denial of nature, and immortality-striving efforts to control, rather than sanctify, the natural world were problems whose severity was increasing. In this paper I review Becker’s ideas and suggest ways in which they illuminate human response to global climate change. Because immortality projects range from belief in technology and materialism to reverence for nature or belief in a celestial god, they act both as barriers to and facilitators of sustainable practices. I propose that Becker's cross-disciplinary “science of man,” and the predictions it generates for proximate-level determinants of social behavior, add significantly to our understanding of and potential for managing the people paradox, i.e., that the very things that bring us symbolic immortality often conflict with our prospects for survival. Analysis of immortality projects as one of the proximate barriers to addressing climate change is both cautionary and hopeful, providing insights that should be included in the cross-disciplinary quest to uncover new pathways toward rational, social change.

  2. Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

  3. Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

  4. Modeling dynamics of tundra plant communities on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia, in response to climate change and grazing pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Understanding the responses of the arctic tundra biome to a changing climate requires knowledge of the complex interactions among the climate, soils and biological system. This study investigates the individual and interaction effects of climate change and reindeer grazing across a variety of climate zones and soil texture types on tundra vegetation community dynamics using an arctic vegetation model that incorporates the reindeer diet, where grazing is a function of both foliar nitrogen concentration and reindeer forage preference. We found that grazing is important, in addition to the latitudinal climate gradient, in controlling tundra plant community composition, explaining about 13% of the total variance in model simulations for all arctic tundra subzones. The decrease in biomass of lichen, deciduous shrub and graminoid plant functional types caused by grazing is potentially dampened by climate warming. Moss biomass had a nonlinear response to increased grazing intensity, and such responses were stronger when warming was present. Our results suggest that evergreen shrubs may benefit from increased grazing intensity due to their low palatability, yet a growth rate sensitivity analysis suggests that changes in nutrient uptake rates may result in different shrub responses to grazing pressure. Heavy grazing caused plant communities to shift from shrub tundra toward moss, graminoid-dominated tundra in subzones C and D when evergreen shrub growth rates were decreased in the model. The response of moss, lichen and forbs to warming varied across the different subzones. Initial vegetation responses to climate change during transient warming are different from the long term equilibrium responses due to shifts in the controlling mechanisms (nutrient limitation versus competition) within tundra plant communities.

  5. Modeling dynamics of tundra plant communities on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia, in response to climate change and grazing pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Q.; Epstein, H. E.; Walker, D. A.; Frost, G. V.; Forbes, B. C.

    2011-10-01

    Understanding the responses of the arctic tundra biome to a changing climate requires knowledge of the complex interactions among the climate, soils and biological system. This study investigates the individual and interaction effects of climate change and reindeer grazing across a variety of climate zones and soil texture types on tundra vegetation community dynamics using an arctic vegetation model that incorporates the reindeer diet, where grazing is a function of both foliar nitrogen concentration and reindeer forage preference. We found that grazing is important, in addition to the latitudinal climate gradient, in controlling tundra plant community composition, explaining about 13% of the total variance in model simulations for all arctic tundra subzones. The decrease in biomass of lichen, deciduous shrub and graminoid plant functional types caused by grazing is potentially dampened by climate warming. Moss biomass had a nonlinear response to increased grazing intensity, and such responses were stronger when warming was present. Our results suggest that evergreen shrubs may benefit from increased grazing intensity due to their low palatability, yet a growth rate sensitivity analysis suggests that changes in nutrient uptake rates may result in different shrub responses to grazing pressure. Heavy grazing caused plant communities to shift from shrub tundra toward moss, graminoid-dominated tundra in subzones C and D when evergreen shrub growth rates were decreased in the model. The response of moss, lichen and forbs to warming varied across the different subzones. Initial vegetation responses to climate change during transient warming are different from the long term equilibrium responses due to shifts in the controlling mechanisms (nutrient limitation versus competition) within tundra plant communities.

  6. Water and heat transport in boreal soils: Implications for soil response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Z.; Neff, J.C.; Harden, J.W.; Zhang, T.; Veldhuis, H.; Czimczik, C.I.; Winston, G.C.; O'Donnell, J. A.

    2011-01-01

    Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2-4??C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30. years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  7. County Governor's climate change work. Roles and responsibilities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change; Fylkesmannens klimaarbeid. Roller og oppgaver for aa redusere klimagassutslipp og tilpasse seg klimaendringene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    The document provides an overall description of the County Department's tasks in the work of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change. Chapters 2 and 3 provides a picture of climate change and a description of the County Department's role in the implementation of the national climate policy. Chapter 4 describes the municipalities and county municipalities' responsibilities in climate change. Chapter 5 is a specific review of the County Department of Climate tasks as a regional sector authority in the environmental area, agricultural area and the emergency and civil protection area. (AG)

  8. The upper mountain forest and tree response to climate change in south Siberian Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.; Ranson, J.

    2010-12-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate topographic features of high elevation mountain environments govern spatial distribution and climate-driven dynamics of the forests growing there. The study area included upper mountain forest stands formed by larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb) and Siberian pine(Pinus sibirica Du Tour) (elevation range 1800-2600 m) in the mountains of southern Siberia. We used archive maps, satellite and on-ground data from 1960-2002. Data were normalized to avoid bias caused by uneven distribution of elevation, and slope steepness within the analyzed area. Spatial distribution of forest stands were analyzed with respect to topography based on a DEM. The primary results show that mountain forest spatial patterns are anisotropic with respect to topography. At a given elevation, the majority of forests occupied slopes with greater than mean slope values. As the elevation increased forests shifted to steeper slopes. The forest azimuth distribution orientation changed clockwise with elevation increase (total shift was 120 deg) indicating a combined effect of wind and water stress on the observed forest patterns. Warming caused changes in the forest distribution patterns during the last four decades. The area of closed forests increased 1.5 times, which was attributed to increased stand density and tree migration. The migration rate was 1.5 ± 0.9 m yr^-1 and caused a mean forest line shift of 63 ± 37m. Along with upward migration, downward tree migration onto hill slopes was observed. Changes in tree morphology were also noted as wide-spread transformation of the prostrate forms of Siberian pine and larch into erect forms. An analysis of the radial growth increments showed that the widespread vertical transformation of krummholz began in the mid -1980s. Radial and apical growth increments correlated with increase in air temperature (summer and “cold period”) and CO2 concentration. Regeneration responded to temperature increase of 1 deg C by migration

  9. The distributions of Chinese yak breeds in response to climate change over the past 50 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianguo

    2016-07-01

    The effects of prior climate change on yak breed distributions are uncertain. Here, we measured changes in the distributions of 12 yak breeds over the past 50 years in China and examined whether the changes could be attributed to climate change. Long-term records of yak breed distribution, grey relational analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of several yak breeds have changed in multiple directions, mainly shifting northward or westward, and most of these changes are related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past years, the suitable range and the distribution centers of certain yak breeds have changed with fluctuation and have mainly shifted northward, eastward or southward. The consistency of observed versus predicted changes in distribution boundaries or distribution centers is higher for certain yak breeds. Changes in the eastern distribution boundary of two yak breeds over the past 50 years can be attributed to climate change.

  10. Response of ESV to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusuli, Yusufujiang; Sidik, Halida; Gupur, Adila; Hong, Jiang; Kadir, Rayila

    2016-04-01

    Ecosystem goods and services refer to the dependence of economic wealth and human well-being on natural systems. It is a common knowledge that the changing of structure and function of the ecosystem due to climate change and human activities. It is a priority issue to study on various spatiotemporal scales, the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change and anthropogenic pressure in inland areas. In an effort to better understand the influence of climate change and human activities on ecosystem services, we evaluated the change in ESV of the Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang, China from 1973 to 2014 employing methods of MK, MK Sneyers, ESV and dynamic degree of LUCC. The Landsat images, digital elevation model (DEM) and metrological data were applied to assessing the ESV and its change. According to the degree of effects of the climate change and human activities, the research area was divided into two parts: the mountain area and the plain oasis area at a contour of 1400 m above sea level. According to type and affect, the land cover was classified as water, wetland, desert, fields, glacier, warm shrub grassland, cold meadow steppe and highland vegetation. We analyzed the relationship between the variation of ESV and precipitation, and evaporation and then quantitatively differentiated the influence of climate change and human activities on ESV. Results show that: (1) distinct change points of precipitation and evaporation in mountain and plain oasis of the Yanqi basin were detected by the MK-Sneyers test. The precipitation increased and the evaporation declined in mountain and plain oasis in the same way. Enlargement of agricultural areas to accommodate an increased population and socio-economic development was detected by conversion matrix of LUCC in oasis area. As a result, the variation of ESV was caused by climate change and human activities jointly; (2) the declining trend of ESV in the mountain area was mainly caused by shrinking of the glacier area; (3) ESV was

  11. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  12. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  13. The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Daniel; Parker, Tess; Woollings, Tim; Harvey, Benjamin; Shaffrey, Len

    2016-07-01

    Midlatitude weather and climate are dominated by the jet streams and associated eastward moving storm systems. Occasionally, however, these are blocked by persistent anticyclonic regimes known as blocking. Climate models generally predict a small decline in blocking frequency under anthropogenic climate change. However, confidence in these predictions is undermined by, among other things, a lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying the change. Here we analyze blocking (mostly in the Euro-Atlantic sector) in a set of sensitivity experiments to determine the effect of different parts of the surface global warming pattern. We also analyze projected changes in the impacts of blocking such as temperature extremes. The results show that enhanced warming both in the tropics and over the Arctic act to strengthen the projected decline in blocking. The tropical changes are more important for the uncertainty in projected blocking changes, though the Arctic also affects the temperature anomalies during blocking.

  14. Sensitivity analysis of modelled responses of vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau to doubled CO2 and associated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Linjing; Liu, Xiaodong

    2016-04-01

    Increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration affect both the global climate and plant metabolism, particularly for high-altitude ecosystems. Because of the limitations of field experiments, it is difficult to evaluate the responses of vegetation to CO2 increases and separate the effects of CO2 and associated climate change using direct observations at a regional scale. Here, we used the Community Earth System Model (CESM, version 1.0.4) to examine these effects. Initiated from bare ground, we simulated the vegetation composition and productivity under two CO2 concentrations (367 and 734 ppm) and associated climate conditions to separate the comparative contributions of doubled CO2 and CO2-induced climate change to the vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The results revealed whether the individual effect of doubled CO2 and its induced climate change or their combined effects caused a decrease in the foliage projective cover (FPC) of C3 arctic grass on the TP. Both doubled CO2 and climate change had a positive effect on the FPC of the temperate and tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) on the TP, but doubled CO2 led to FPC decreases of C4 grass and broadleaf deciduous shrubs, whereas the climate change resulted in FPC decrease in C3 non-arctic grass and boreal needleleaf evergreen trees. Although the combination of the doubled CO2 and associated climate change increased the area-averaged leaf area index (LAI), the effect of doubled CO2 on the LAI increase (95 %) was larger than the effect of CO2-induced climate change (5 %). Similarly, the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) were primarily sensitive to the doubled CO2, compared with the CO2-induced climate change, which alone increased the regional GPP and NPP by 251.22 and 87.79 g C m-2 year-1, respectively. Regionally, the vegetation response was most noticeable in the south-eastern TP. Although both doubled CO2 and associated climate change had a

  15. Processes of community development and responses of ecosystems to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redente, E.F.

    1989-05-26

    Our studies focus on attempting to understand the role of decomposer-primary producer linkages in successional dynamics. We are testing a series of hypotheses that relate changes in plant species composition during succession to changes in activity and structure of the soil microfloral and faunal community, dynamics of soil organic matter, and availability of soil nutrients. As these successional patterns are identified, they are being applied to understanding specific processes and mechanics involved in ecosystem development during recovery from moderate and severe disturbances. These findings are then being used in conjunction with simulation models to assess potential effects of climate change on ecosystems. Our research involves field studies in northwestern Colorado and southeastern Washington, laboratory studies, and simulation modeling. Ongoing projects include studies of response patterns of primary producer and soil microbial communities to nutrient additions (N, P, and sucrose), the function of mycorrhizal fungi in plant community development, and the dynamics of litter decomposition under semiarid conditions. New studies are being implemented to investigate the significance of nutrient transfers from VAM fungi to plants and plant-root exudate interactions, and to relate this to understanding their roles in succession.

  16. Climate change and response of geosystems of the Russian North (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drozdov, D. S.; Korostelev, Y. V.; Malkova, G. V.; Melnikov, V. P.; Orekhov, P. T.; Ukraintseva, N. G.

    2010-12-01

    The study of climate change, mainly air temperature and snow cover depth, is a key to understanding of modern trends in evolution of cryolithozone and response of geosystems of the North. Greenhouse and technogenic effects influence the cryolithozone and permafrost as well. Scenarios of substantial warming, temperate warming, and cooling were considered in our research. Weather station records show that the last so called “Earth Global Warming”, which started in 1960-1970s was initially most pronounced in Subarctic and Temperate zones. Maximum warming rate was observed in the 1980s. In Russia, the areas of warming in 20th century were Central Yakutia and Transbaikal, while in the European and Far East Russia the rate of warming was rather small. Later, the warming trend was observed only locally and new areas of maximum rates of warming appear within Russian cryolithozone. In 2000s, warming gradually extends to the Arctic regions while it slows down in Subarctic. Thermal regime of permafrost generally follows the climate change. Geocryological monitoring data evidence the rise of ground temperature at the depth of zero annual amplitude in the north of West Siberia by 0.2 to 1.4°C and in European Russia by 0.1 to 0.7°C. In these regions, slight trend of snow accumulation growth was also observed. At the same time, in Central Yakutia, though climate warms, permafrost temperature does not show increase due to reduction of snow depth in the last decades. In West Siberia, Urengoi gas field, ground temperatures in 1975-1993 increased by 1 to 1.5°C due to natural climate fluctuations (some times up to 2 to 3.5°C). Human impact added 1 to 1.5°C, this last being tightly linked to the effect of engineering structures. Some slowing of thaw and stabilization of ground temperature around 0°C is observed as incoming heat is consumed by phase transition in the near-surface layer. I was instrumentally detected that permafrost table lowered by 5-8 m and more at the

  17. Changes in terpene production and emission in response to climate change and eutrophication

    OpenAIRE

    Blanch Roure, Josep-Salvador

    2011-01-01

    80% of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) that are emitted every year to the atmosphere come from biogenic sources (BVOCs), where many different families are included, such as isoprenoids. The production and emission of those compounds is influenced by environmental variables such as light and temperature. Those environmental variables will be affected by global change which has been predicted for the next decades. The main objective of this thesis was to study the effect of global change, ...

  18. Plant eco-physiological responses to multiple environmental and climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rost Albert, K.

    2009-03-15

    }; 6) Photosynthetic capacity were closely linked to growth strategy and rewetting stimulation were closely related to high nitrogen leaf content; 7) Responses to elevated CO{sub 2}, drought and warming could not be deduced from single factor experiments; 8) Ambient UV-B decreased PSII performance despite stimulation of UV-B absorbing compounds in high arctic plants in both short and long term; 9) Ambient UV-B decreased net photosynthesis via effects on PSII performance in combination with effects on Calvin Cycle; 10) Current UV-B level is a important factor affecting high arctic plants, particularly in years with spring advancement induced by warming. In conclusion, the results in this thesis suggest the responses of temperate heath plant photosynthesis to be imitatively linked with plant growth strategy and water relations, and also that the responses of photosynthesis to the important drivers often interacted. Current UV-B levels decreases productivity in high arctic heath plants, and advanced spring in response to warming may lead to further decrease while other climatic changes as elevated CO{sub 2} may negate this. Stimulated productivity of temperate heath plants is likely under the climatic conditions predicted to be prevailing in Denmark anno 2075. (author)

  19. The Response of Environmental Capacity for Malaria Transmission in West Africa to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2011-12-01

    The climate of West Africa is characterized by north-south gradients in temperature and rainfall. Environmental capacity for malaria transmission (e.g. as measured by vectorial capacity) is strongly tied to these two variables; temperature affects the development rate of the malaria parasite, as well as the lifespan of the mosquitoes that transmit the disease, and rainfall is tied to mosquito abundance, as the vector lays its eggs in rain-fed water pools. A change in climate is therefore expected to lead to changes in the distribution of malaria transmission. Current general circulation models agree that the temperature in West Africa is expected to increase by several degrees in the next century. However they predict a wide range of possible rainfall scenarios in the future, from intense drying to significant increases in rainfall (Christensen et al., 2007). The effects these changes will have on environmental capacity for malaria transmission depend on the magnitude and direction of the changes, and on current conditions. For example, malaria transmission will be more sensitive to positive changes in rainfall in dry areas where mosquito populations are currently limited by water availability than in relatively wet areas. Here, we analyze combinations of changes in rainfall and temperature within the ranges predicted by GCMs, and assess the impact these combinations will have on the environmental capacity for malaria transmission. In particular, we identify climate change scenarios that are likely to have the greatest impact on environmental capacity for malaria transmission, as well as geographic "hot spots" where the greatest changes are to be expected. Christensen, J. H., Busuioc, A., & et al. (2007). Regional climate projections. In S. Solomon (Ed.), Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  20. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  1. Enabling Responsible Energy Decisions: What People Know, Want to Know, and Need to Know about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    PytlikZillig, L. M.; Tomkins, A. J.; Harrington, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    As part of a broader regional effort focused on climate change education and rural communities, this paper focuses on a specific effort to understand effective approaches to two presumably complementary goals: The goal of increasing knowledge about climate change and climate science in a community, and the goal of having communities use climate change and climate science information when making decisions. In this paper, we explore the argument that people do not need or want to know about climate change, in order to make responsible and sustainable energy decisions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that involvement in making responsible and sustainable energy decisions will increase openness and readiness to process climate science information, and thus increase learning about climate change in subsequent exposures to such information. Support for these hypotheses would suggest that rather than encouraging education to enable action (including engagement in attempts to make responsible decisions), efforts should focus on encouraging actions first and education second. To investigate our hypotheses, we will analyze and report results from efforts to engage residents from a medium-sized Midwestern city to give input on future programs involving sustainable energy use. The engagement process (which will not be complete until after the AGU deadline) involves an online survey and an optional face-to-face discussion with city officials and experts in energy-related areas. The online survey includes brief information about current local energy programs, questions assessing knowledge of climate change, and an open-ended question asking what additional information residents need in order to make good decisions and recommendations concerning the energy programs. To examine support for our hypotheses, we will report (1) relationships between subjective and objective knowledge of climate science and willingness to attend the face-to-face discussion about the city's energy decisions

  2. A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

    OpenAIRE

    Lange, Manfred A.; Mustapha El-Maayar

    2013-01-01

    A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA), the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the...

  3. Extension Agrometeorology as the Answer to Stakeholder Realities: Response Farming and the Consequences of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durton Nanja

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Extension agrometeorology is applied in agrometeorological extension work to advice and serve farmers. In agrometeorology, response farming has been developed decades ago. Climate change complicates response farming, but does not alter it. This paper reports on new operationalization of that response farming in new educational commitments in agroclimatology. It is explained how “Science Field Shops” are an example in Indonesia. This was based on a thorough analysis of what climate change means for farmers in Asia. For Africa, we report on eying the training of agrometeorological extension trainers (“product intermediaries” in West Africa, based on a thorough analysis of what climate change means for farmers in Africa. We also compare experience with reaching farmers in South Africa and farmer communities in Zambia, as new forms of supporting response farming, all under conditions of a changing climate. The paper, for the first time, connects results from four different programs the senior author is taking part in. There is first and foremost the need for training material to make it possible for the product intermediaries to participate in training extension intermediaries. This should, particularly, bring new knowledge to farmers. With what is presently available and with new approaches, climate extension should be developed and tested with farmers in ways that improve farmer preparedness and decision making.

  4. Seasonal responses of terrestrial ecosystem water-use efficiency to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Mengtian; Piao, Shilong; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peng, Shushi; Ciais, Philippe; Cheng, Lei; Mao, Jiafu; Poulter, Ben; Shi, Xiaoying; Yao, Yitong; Yang, Hui; Wang, Yingping

    2016-06-01

    Ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long-term trend in annual EWUE over many regions and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO2 . The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982-2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water-use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET), and transpiration-based WUE (WUEt , the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process-based models and satellite-based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite-based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite-based products. Trend analysis, based on process-model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO2 and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid- and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO2 in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m(-2)  mm(-1)  yr(-1) for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO2, and NDEP. PMID

  5. Juvenile growth response of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L. to sudden change of climatic environment in SE European trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasztovits E

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to analyse provenance tests of beech situated close to the south-eastern continental limits of the species, in order to develop a response model of adaptation and plasticity of populations on evolutionary-ecological basis, following sudden climatic changes, as a result of transplanting. Modelling of juvenile height was performed with the help of ecodistance variables. The concept of transfer analysis and ecodistance is based on the hypothesis that phenotypic response to macroclimatic changes depends on the inherited adaptive potential of the population and on the magnitude and direction of experienced environmental change. In common garden experiments, the transfer to the planting site is interpreted as simulation of environmental change. The application of ecodistance of transfer for evaluating common garden experiments provides much needed quantitative information about response of tree populations to predicted climatic changes. The analysis of three field experiments of European beech in SE Europe indicates that macroclimatic adaptation patterns exist in juvenile growth and justify restrictions of use of reproductive material on the basis of evolutionary ecology. The presented model illustrates that response to climatic change is regionally divergent, depending on testing conditions and on hereditary traits. In particular, climatic warming in the central-northern part of the range may lead to production increase. However, under the stressful and uncertain conditions at the lower (xeric limit of the species, growth depression and vitality loss are predicted. The deviating behaviour of higher elevation provenances support their separate treatment. The results may be utilised in climate change adaptation and mitigation policy in forestry and nature conservation, to revise rules for use of reproductive material and also for validating evolutionary and ecological hypotheses related to climate change effects.

  6. Indigenous Technologies Fishing Settlement Response to Climate Change Variability’s in Southern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert, C. O.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The study focused on indigenous technologies used by fishermen in southern Nigeria as adaptation measures to climate change variability’s. Interview schedule was used to elicit information from sixty respondents in three (3 communities using simple random sampling technique. Percentage and mean scores were utilized for data analysis. The study established that the climate change experiences were: rise in sea level, rise in temperature, high wind, change in tidal pattern and frequent storms. The effects of climate change experiences on fishing include low fish catch, increase in boat mishap, reduced fish production and low growth rate of fishes. Indigenous technologies used as mitigating steps include building of bigger boats, the use of diverse fishing gears and observation of weather. These technologies had been very effective as mitigating steps. The study recommended mainly that modern weather forecasting facilities should be provided for the fishermen.

  7. The Role of Disturbance in Arctic Ecosystem Response to a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L. D.

    2014-12-01

    Wildfires in the tundra regions and the boreal forest project an immediate effect upon the surface energy and water budget by drastically altering the surface albedo, roughness, infiltration rates, and moisture absorption capacity in organic soils. Although fires create a sudden and drastic change to the landcover, it is only the beginning of a long process of recovery and perhaps a shift to a different successional pathway. In permafrost regions, these effects become part of a process of long-term (20-50 years) cumulative impacts. Burn severity may largely determine immediate impacts and long-term disturbance trajectories. As transpiration decreases or ceases, soil moisture increases markedly, remaining quite wet throughout the year. Because the insulating quality of the organic layer is removed during fires, permafrost begins to thaw near the surface and warm to greater depths. Within a few years, it may thaw to the point where it can no longer completely refreeze every winter, creating a permanently thawed layer in the soil called a talik. After formation of a talik, soils can drain internally throughout the year. At this point, soils may become quite dry, as the total precipitation received annually in the Arctic is quite low. The local ecological community must continuously adapt to the changing soil thermal and moisture regimes. The wet soils found over shallow permafrost favor black spruce forests. After a fire creates a deeper permafrost table (thicker active layer) the invading tree species tend to be birch or alder. The hydrologic and thermal regime of the soil is the primary factor controlling these vegetation trajectories and the subsequent changes in surface mass and energy fluxes. The complexities of a changing climate accentuate these processes of change and complicate predictions of the resulting vegetation trajectories. Understanding these shifts in vegetative communities and quantifying the consequences of thawing permafrost can only be

  8. Response of Peat-forming Ecosystems of the Western Antarctic Peninsula to Recent Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tardona, M.; Beilman, D.; Yu, Z.; Loisel, J.

    2014-12-01

    Amplified warming and related environmental changes in the high latitudes have a complex geographic pattern, with the Western Antarctic Peninsula experiencing one of the fastest rates of recent warming globally. To better understand the response of terrestrial Antarctic ecosystems to polar change, we applied a paleoscience approach to organic soil profiles from 13 aerobic peatbank ecosystems on 7 islands along the peninsula from 67.6 to 64.2°S. Peatbank ecosystem ages were obtained by Radiocarbon measurements of organic matter from the base of these profiles and cluster in three groups: older than 1000 years old (as old as 2750 years old), 400-500 years old, and younger than 65 years with fixed bomb-spike carbon. Three of these peatbank profiles were studied in detail, and show growth rates over the last 65 years of ~2.5 mm yr-1. This rate is faster than those observed during previous periods but is similar to other recent nearby studies that report recent growth rates of ~2.6 mm yr-1. Organic carbon storage ranged from 6.1 to 21.3 kgC m-2. Values of moss bank organic matter δ13C show progressively more depleted δ13C values; in which depletion increases 3.0‰ over recent decades. Overall increase in source-independent discrimination is 1.7‰, consistent with published records from other locations and an increase in photosynthetic activity at the regional scale. Source-independent discrimination displays substantial variations corresponding negatively to variation of organic matter C:N values. Our results imply several recent changes in Antarctic peat forming ecosystem processes including formation of new moss banks, increased accumulation rates, and high variability in source-independent discrimination. These changes are complex but affected by contemporary climate changes of the region including increasing temperatures over the past century.

  9. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  10. The Integration of Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, DemandResponse and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Evaluatorsand Planners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vine, Edward

    2007-05-29

    This paper explores the feasibility of integrating energyefficiency program evaluation with the emerging need for the evaluationof programs from different "energy cultures" (demand response, renewableenergy, and climate change). The paper reviews key features andinformation needs of the energy cultures and critically reviews theopportunities and challenges associated with integrating these withenergy efficiency program evaluation. There is a need to integrate thedifferent policy arenas where energy efficiency, demand response, andclimate change programs are developed, and there are positive signs thatthis integration is starting to occur.

  11. Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yang

    Full Text Available Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET and water yield (WY of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

  12. Phenological responses to climate change and their trait-induced differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziello, Chiara; Estella, Nicole; Menzel, Annette

    2010-05-01

    On the basis of an extensive plant phenological dataset which involves phenological stations distributed all over Europe (from Spain to Russia, from the Alps to the Scandinavian Peninsula), we assess those differences in temporal trends related to Plant Functional Types (PFTs, i.e. woodiness), ecological traits (i.e. dates of flowering) and functional traits (i.e. pollination mode). We analyze differences in the sensitivity of different flowering stages to these traits. We focus on different substages such as beginning of flowering, full flowering, end of flowering because flowering seems to be so far one of the stages most affected by climate change. An increasing risk of pollinosis is one of the most likely expected consequences of climate change, and the detection of differences in responses of wind-pollinated plants with respect to other vegetation categories is important also to understand the impact of increasing temperatures on the behavior of allergenic plants. Wind-pollinated plants can be considered as representative of allergenic species because anemophilous species include those ones with the highest capability of causing allergy-related diseases in human subjects (e.g. the birch family, some cultivated and spontaneous grasses). Our main results indicate that, during the last three decades, wind-pollinated plants are advancing more than insect-pollinated ones, moreover showing a significant linear dependence of trends on phenodates. The tendency towards an earlier onset of flowering of anemophilous species could be explained due to the fact that all the considered species are angiosperms. For this plant division, anemophily is a condition derived from entomophily, and likely developed as a response to adverse or changing environmental conditions. So, it could be possible to look at them as species somehow predisposed to a more rapid adaptation process. On the other hand, this behavior could also be caused by the direct dependence on temperature of these

  13. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  14. General Practitioners’ responses to global climate change - lessons from clinical experience and the clinical method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blashki Grant

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climate change is a global public health problem that will require complex thinking if meaningful and effective solutions are to be achieved. In this conceptual paper we argue that GPs have much to bring to the issue of climate change from their wide-ranging clinical experience and from the principles underpinning their clinical methods. This experience and thinking calls forth particular contributions GPs can and should make to debate and action. Discussion We contend that the privileged experience and GP way of thinking can make valuable contributions when applied to climate change solutions. These include a lifetime of experience, reflection and epistemological application to first doing no harm, managing uncertainty, the ability to make necessary decisions while possessing incomplete information, an appreciation of complex adaptive systems, maintenance of homeostasis, vigilance for unintended consequences, and an appreciation of the importance of transdisciplinarity and interprofessionalism. Summary General practitioners have a long history of public health advocacy and in the case of climate change may bring a way of approaching complex human problems that could be applied to the dilemmas of climate change.

  15. Use of an automated digital images system for detecting plant status changes in response to climate change manipulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesaraccio, Carla; Piga, Alessandra; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Angelo; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2014-05-01

    climate manipulations: control (no manipulation), warming (overnight cover), and drought (interception of the periodic precipitation) treatments (36 shots x panorama (3 rows x 12 columns) with a degree of overlapping equal to 30%). On each panorama, ROIs (Regions of Interest) focusing major species of the shrubland ecosystem were identified. Then, image analysis was performed to obtain information on vegetation status (i.e. color signals and phenology). The color channel information (digital numbers; DNs) were extracted from the RAW file. The overall brightness (i.e., total RGB DN, green excess index) was also calculated. Finally, the RGB value was correlated with the pattern of phenological development. Preliminary results of this study show that the use of digital images are well-suited to identify phenological pattern of the Mediterranean species. Results of digital images analysis can be a valuable support for ecologists, environmental scientists, and land managers providing information useful to interpret phenological responses of plants to climate change, to validate satellite-based phenology data, and to provide input to adaption strategies plans to climate change.

  16. A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manfred A. Lange

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA, the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the next. Our approach was applied to remove the effect of non-climatic factors on crop yield and, hence, to isolate the effect of the observed climate change between 1961 and 2006 on three widely crops grown in three Mediterranean countries—namely wheat, corn and potato—using national-level crop yield observations’ time-series. Obtained results show that the proposed methodology provides us with a ground basis to improve substantially our understanding of crop yield response to climate change at a scale that is relevant to large-scale estimations of agricultural production and to food security analyses; and therefore to reduce uncertainties in estimations of potential climate change effects on agricultural production. Furthermore, a comparison of outputs of our methodology and FDA outputs yielded a difference in terms of maize production in Egypt, for example, that exceeds the production of some neighbouring countries.

  17. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

    2015-12-01

    Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory

  18. Processes of community development and responses of ecosystems to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redente, E.F.

    1990-01-01

    Plant community development is a dynamic process that results from the responses of those organisms present at the site to a constantly fluctuating environment created by the interaction of variations in climatic, edaphic, and biotic factors imposed on the physio-geographic matrix of the site. Too often, this process of community development is studied only in relation to primary producers. Our studies are based on the premise that plant community development is closely linked to the coupling of decomposers with primary producers through direct and indirect mutualistic interactions. Therefore, plant community development is a process that can be explained only by understanding the simultaneous and closely interdependent development of primary producer and decomposer subsystem. To increase our understanding of these development relationships, our studies are investigating changes in composition, structure, and activity of soil microflora and fauna; quantity, quality, and decomposition rate of litter; and nutrient availability levels in the soil, and relating these changes to plant community development patterns within a semiarid shrubland ecosystem. 34 refs., 2 figs., 7 tabs.

  19. Local Perceptions and Responses to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of Laikipia District, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Ayeri Ogalleh

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural policies in Kenya aim to improve farmers’ livelihoods. With projected climate change, these policies are short of mechanisms that promote farmers’ adaptation. As a result, smallholders are confronted with a variety of challenges including climate change, which hinders their agricultural production. Local knowledge can be instrumental in assisting smallholders to cope with climate change and variability. In this paper, we present empirical evidence that demonstrates local knowledge, perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability amongst smallholders of Laikipia district of Kenya. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI calculated for one station is compared with smallholders’ perceptions. Data was collected using qualitative and quantitative methods in Umande and Muhonia sub-locations. Qualitative data included 46 transcripts from focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Quantitative data is derived from 206 interviewees. We analyzed qualitative and quantitative data using Atlas-ti and SPSS respectively. According to smallholders’ perceptions, climatic variability is increasingly changing. Local perceptions include decreasing rainfalls, increasing temperatures, increasing frosts and increasing hunger. The PDSI shows a trend towards severe droughts in the last four decades, which is in accordance with farmers’ perceptions. Smallholders use a combination of coping and adaptation strategies to respond to variability, including, among others, diversification of crop varieties, migration and sale of livestock. Significant relationships exist between drought perceptions and some adaptations such as migration and sale of livestock. Farmers have an in-depth knowledge of climatic variability, which they use to inform their coping and adaptation strategies. Knowledge of climatic perceptions and adaptations are vital entry points for decision makers and policy makers to learn how and where to enhance the

  20. Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    Full Text Available Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA. Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2 show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change

  1. Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, William B; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2)) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used

  2. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheets, H. David; Mitchell, Charles E.; Melchin, Michael J.; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L.; Hawkins, Andrew D.

    2016-07-01

    Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (˜447–444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

  3. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheets, H David; Mitchell, Charles E; Melchin, Michael J; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L; Hawkins, Andrew D

    2016-07-26

    Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (∼447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

  4. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheets, H. David; Mitchell, Charles E.; Melchin, Michael J.; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L.; Hawkins, Andrew D.

    2016-07-01

    Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (˜447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

  5. Modelling the Responses of Carbon Fluxes to Climate Change in Northeast China Forests using IBIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingwei Liu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the long-term exchange of carbon dioxide between terrestrial and the atmosphere is an important priority of the current climate change research. In this regard, it is particularly significant to provide valid data on fluxes of carbon over representative ecosystems. In this study, we used a modified process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (Integrated Biosphere Simulator, IBIS, which represents biogeochemical and biophysical process, coupling the carbon, nitrogen and water cycles on each specific time steps, to generalize our understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of Net Primary Productivity (NPP, Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP and Soil Respiration (RS over northeast China to climate change for the period 1961 to 2080. The model results demonstrate a powerful approach to integrate and expand our knowledge of climate changes on northeast China forest carbon dynamics now and in the future.

  6. Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

    1980-01-01

    Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

  7. Fish like it Hot? The response of ichthyolith accumulation to changing climates of the Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibert, E. C.; Zill, M. E.; Bryant, R. M.; Graves, L. G.; Norris, R. D.

    2014-12-01

    It has been hypothesized that the production of fish in the water column is related to the amount of primary production in the surface waters. Most future Earth scenarios suggest that as the climate warms, increased surface ocean stratification will decrease nutrient availability and therefore net primary productivity and fish production. Here we calculate accumulation rates of ichthyoliths (microfossil fish teeth and shark dermal scales) throughout the Paleogene and find that ichthyolith accumulation is inversely related to hypothesized changes in primary productivity, but is positively related to ocean temperature. At DSDP Site 596 in the South Pacific, and ODP Site 1258 from the equatorial Atlantic, accumulation of fish fossils increase 6-10 fold from the relatively cool Paleocene into the warm Early Eocene Climate Optimum. In contrast, cooling and increased biosilica deposition at the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) Boundary suggests that the marine ecosystem switched to a highly productive diatom-dominated ocean, which should favor short, efficient food chains and increased fish production. However, we find that at both Pacific DSDP Site 596 and Atlantic DSDP Site 522, fish accumulation drops by about 50% across the E/O. Indeed, this relation between ichthyolith accumulation and δ18O-estimated paleotemperature is also seen in the Oligocene, at North Pacific ODP Site 886, where warming in the middle Oligocene is mirrored by an increase in ichthyolith accumulation. It appears that ichthyolith accumulation rate may not be purely an effect of total primary production in the water column but rather, may reflect a fundamental response in fish physiology or ecosystem efficiency to warmer water. It has been documented that respiration is faster and more efficient in warm waters, and this may help generate more efficient food web links that compensate for any decrease in primary productivity caused by global warming. Indeed, it appears that fish seem to thrive as the

  8. Signs of critical transition in the Everglades wetlands in response to climate and anthropogenic changes

    OpenAIRE

    R. Foti; del Jesus, M.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2013-01-01

    The increasing pressure of climatic change and anthropogenic activities is predicted to have major effects on ecosystems around the world. With their fragility and sensitivity to hydrologic shifts and land-use changes, wetlands are among the most vulnerable of such ecosystems. Focusing on the Everglades National Park, we here assess the impact of changes in the hydrologic regime, as well as habitat loss, on the spatial configuration of vegetation species. Because the current structuring of ve...

  9. Local Colonization-Extinction Dynamics Generate Lags in the Response to Climate Change in Eastern North American Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talluto, M. V.; Boulangeat, I.; Vissault, S.; Gravel, D.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is likely to push many species to the limits of their ecological niches and lead to mismatches between species ranges and local environmental conditions. Forested ecosystems in particular may have difficulty tracking climate change due to slow growth and dispersal rates. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs), commonly used to predict the response of species distributions to climate change, relate species occurrences to climate to describe the present niche; however they often project into the future without accounting for slow processes that might produce lags in the response to climate change. An alternative type of model that analyzes patch-scale colonization and extinction (C-E) rates along an environmental gradient has been successful in describing species range limits in theoretical studies. Because the model is stochastic and dynamic, it is more robust to changes in the environmental gradient than static SDMs. We applied such a model to 40 of the most abundant trees in eastern North American forests, using repeated observations across multiple decades to parameterize the C-E rates. We show that C-E rates for many species respond to climate in a manner that generates predicted range limits when the species is at equilibrium with the environment. Moreover, current distributions of many species are significantly out of equilibrium with the present climate, with predicted range limits shifted 10s to 100s of km northward from the present distribution. These results suggest that present warming has already exceeded the thermal tolerance at the southern range limits for the dominant trees of eastern North American forests, producing millions of ha of newly suitable areas north of the present distribution of these species that have not yet been colonized, as well as large southern regions where species are present but expected to be lost in the long-term as dead trees are not replaced, even if no further climate warming occurs.

  10. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  11. Responses of Bacterial Communities to Simulated Climate Changes in Alpine Meadow Soil of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rui, Junpeng; Li, Jiabao; Wang, Shiping; An, Jiaxing; Liu, Wen-tso; Lin, Qiaoyan; Yang, Yunfeng; He, Zhili; Li, Xiangzhen

    2015-09-01

    The soil microbial community plays an important role in terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling. However, microbial responses to climate warming or cooling remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict the consequences of future climate changes. To address this issue, it is critical to identify microbes sensitive to climate change and key driving factors shifting microbial communities. In this study, alpine soil transplant experiments were conducted downward or upward along an elevation gradient between 3,200 and 3,800 m in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau to simulate climate warming or cooling. After a 2-year soil transplant experiment, soil bacterial communities were analyzed by pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons. The results showed that the transplanted soil bacterial communities became more similar to those in their destination sites and more different from those in their "home" sites. Warming led to increases in the relative abundances in Alphaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Actinobacteria and decreases in Acidobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, and Deltaproteobacteria, while cooling had opposite effects on bacterial communities (symmetric response). Soil temperature and plant biomass contributed significantly to shaping the bacterial community structure. Overall, climate warming or cooling shifted the soil bacterial community structure mainly through species sorting, and such a shift might correlate to important biogeochemical processes such as greenhouse gas emissions. This study provides new insights into our understanding of soil bacterial community responses to climate warming and cooling. PMID:26116682

  12. Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-03-01

    Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

  13. Characterizing streamflow response of a mountaintop mined watershed to changing landuse and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zegre, N.; Maxwell, A.; Lamont, S.

    2012-12-01

    Mountaintop removal mining (MTR) is a dominant driver of land use/land cover changes in the Appalachian Region of the eastern United States and is expected to increase in scale in the coming decades. The U.S. EPA estimates that, by 2012, MTR will have impacted 6.8% of the largely forested 4.86 million hectares portion of the Appalachian Coalfield region within West Virginia (WV), Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee. Between 1992 and 2002, approximately 1,994 km of headwater streams have been buried, and this number is expected to double to almost 4,000 km in 2012. Several devastating floods in this region have been attributed to this practice and recent studies have demonstrated cumulative aquatic degradation downstream of MTR. Despite its scale and extent, its impact on runoff, particularly at larger spatial scales (10^3 - 10^4 km^2), is poorly understood due to the complex relationships between climate, land use, and hydrology. To explore the impacts of this practice at larger scales, we estimated land use/land cover changes using Landsat 5 TM imagery over five periods between 1994-2010; conducted non-parametric trend analyses on annual streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature; and used a simple rainfall-runoff model to estimate hydrologic response time for the Big Coal River watershed (1,011 km^2) located in the southern WV coalfields. Though not statistically significant, annual streamflow decreased, hydrologic response time increased, air temperature increased, and annual precipitation was geographically variable across the area. Correlation analyses reveals that the decreasing trend in streamflow at annual timescales is likely related to changes in precipitation rather than land use/land cover changes. The lack of statistically detectable trends and correlations between land use change and hydrology at this scale are not entirely unexpected due to the long history and the mosaic of anthropogenic and natural processes and disturbances that span large

  14. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth K; Berg, Matty P; Callaghan, Terry V; Kirby-Lambert, Christopher; Bjerke, Jarle W

    2015-11-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may

  15. Response of the boreal forest ecosystem to climatic change and its silvicultural implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellomaeki, S.; Haenninen, H.; Karjalainen, T. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Faculty of Forestry] [and others

    1996-12-31

    During the next 100 years, the mean annual temperature is expected to be 1-6 deg C higher than at present. It is also expected to be accompanied by a lengthening of the thermal growing season and increased precipitation. Consequently, climatic change will increase the uncertainty of the management of forest ecosystems in the future. In this context, this research project aimed to outline the ecological and silvicultural implications of climatic change with regard to (1) how the expected climatic change might modify the functioning and structure of the boreal forest ecosystem, and (2) how the silvicultural management of the forest ecosystem should be modified in order to maintain sustainable forest yield under changing climatic conditions. The experimental component of the project concerned first the effect that elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon have on the ontogenetic development of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L) and on the subsequent increase in frost damage during winter. The second part of the study looked the effect of elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon on the growth of Scots pine through photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, nutrient supply, and changes in crown structure. This experiment was utilised in several subprojects of the overall project

  16. Limited response of peatland CH4 emissions to abrupt Atlantic Ocean circulation changes in glacial climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. O. Hopcroft

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Ice-core records show that abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic warming events of the last glacial period were accompanied by large increases in the atmospheric CH4 concentration (up to 200 ppbv. These abrupt changes are generally regarded as arising from the effects of changes in the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation and the resultant climatic impact on natural CH4 sources, in particular wetlands. We use two different ecosystem models of wetland CH4 emissions to simulate northern CH4 sources forced with coupled general circulation model simulations of five different time periods during the last glacial to investigate the potential influence of abrupt ocean circulation changes on atmospheric CH4 levels during D-O events. The simulated warming over Greenland of 7–9 °C in the different time-periods is at the lower end of the range of 11–15 °C derived from ice-cores, but is associated with strong impacts on the hydrological cycle, especially over the North Atlantic and Europe during winter. We find that although the sensitivity of CH4 emissions to the imposed climate varies significantly between the two ecosystem emissions models, the model simulations do not reproduce sufficient emission changes to satisfy ice-core observations of CH4 increases during abrupt events. This suggests that alternative scenarios of climatic change could be required to explain the abrupt glacial CH4 variations.

  17. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  18. Basin scale assessment of gas hydrate dissociation in response to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reagan, M.; Moridis, G.; Elliott, S.; Maltrud, M.; Cameron-Smith, P.

    2011-07-01

    Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating climate. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those now occurring in the arctic and those predicted under future climate change scenarios, has only recently been investigated. Field investigations have discovered substantial methane gas plumes exiting the seafloor along the Arctic Ocean margin, and the plumes appear at depths corresponding to the upper limit of a receding gas hydrate stability zone. It has been suggested that these plumes may be the first visible signs of the dissociation of shallow hydrate deposits due to ongoing climate change in the arctic. We simulate the release of methane from oceanic deposits, including the effects of fully-coupled heat transfer, fluid flow, hydrate dissociation, and other thermodynamic processes, for systems representative of segments of the Arctic Ocean margins. The modeling encompasses a range of shallow hydrate deposits from the landward limit of the hydrate stability zone down to water depths beyond the expected range of century-scale temperature changes. We impose temperature changes corresponding to predicted rates of climate change-related ocean warming and examine the possibility of hydrate dissociation and the release of methane. The assessment is performed at local-, regional-, and basin-scales. The simulation results are consistent with the hypothesis that dissociating shallow hydrates alone can result in significant methane fluxes at the seafloor. However, the methane release is likely to be confined to a narrow region of high dissociation susceptibility, defined by depth and temperature, and that any release will be continuous and controlled, rather than explosive. This modeling also establishes the first realistic bounds for methane release along the arctic continental shelf for potential hydrate

  19. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  20. Rural response to climate change in poor countries: Ethics, policies and scientific support systems in their agricultural environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stigter, C.J.

    2011-01-01

    Sustaning Soil Productivity in Response to Global Climate Change is a two-part text bringing together the latest research in soil science and climatology and the ethical, political and social issues surrounding the stewardship of this vital resource. Chapters include scientific studies on microbial

  1. Phenological responses to climate change do not exhibit phylogenetic signal in a subalpine plant community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    CaraDonna, Paul J; Inouye, David W

    2015-02-01

    Phylogenetic relationships may underlie species-specific phenological sensitivities to abiotic variation and may help to predict these responses to climate change. Although shared evolutionary history may mediate both phenology and phenological sensitivity to abiotic variation, few studies have explicitly investigated whether this is the case. We explore phylogenetic signal in flowering phenology and in phenological sensitivity to temperature and snowmelt using a 39-year record of flowering from the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA that includes dates of first, peak, and last flowering, and flowering duration for 60 plant species in a subalpine plant community. Consistent with other studies, we found evidence in support of phylogenetic signal in first flowering date. However, the strength and significance of that signal were inconsistent across other measures of flowering in this plant community: peak flowering date exhibited the strongest phylogenetic signal, followed by first flowering date; last flowering date and duration of flowering exhibited patterns indistinguishable from random trait evolution. In contrast to first and peak flowering date, phenological sensitivities of all flowering measures to temperature and snowmelt did not exhibit a phylogenetic signal. These findings show that within ecological communities, phylogenetic signal in phenology does not necessarily imply phylogenetic signal in phenological sensitivities to abiotic variation. PMID:26240857

  2. Bringing the material back in: US responses to the global climate change regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since environmental sociology was born as a sub-discipline of sociology, its proponents have encouraged sociological research that incorporates environmental factors. After a quarter of a century, however, sociological research continues to overlook the role of environmental factors - even when the object of the research is to understand an environmental issue. This paper analyzes the role of environmental factors to understand the ways that natural resource interests have been translated into political outcome in the form of American responses to the potential regulation of greenhouse gases. Incorporating data about natural resource use and national decision-making both before and after the Bush Administration's decision to pull out of negotiations for the Kyoto Protocol, this paper concludes that comprehending fully political decisions about global climate change in the United States requires that we recognize the conjoint constitution between policy-making and the environmental factors that are affected by such policies. More broadly, this research supports the notion that, in order to understand social phenomena more fully, sociologists must recommit to bringing environmental factors into social research. (author)

  3. Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Ferrise, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    The uncertainty about climate change (CC) complicates impact adaptation and risk management evaluation at the regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty and for simulating and communicating climate change impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here we apply an ensemble of crop models for adapting rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain), constructing adaptation response surfaces (ARS). Our methodology has been adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). Impact response surfaces (IRS) are plotted surfaces showing the response of an impact variable (here crop yield Y) to changes in two explanatory variables (here precipitation P and temperature T). By analyzing adaptation variables such as changes in crop yield (ΔY) when an adaptation option is simulated, these can be interpreted as the adaptation response to potential changes of P and T, i.e. ARS. To build these ARS, we explore the sensitivity of an ensemble of wheat models to changes in T and P. Baseline (1981-2010) T and P were modified using a delta change approach with changes in the seasonal patterns. Three levels of CO2 (representing future conditions until 2050) and two actual soil profiles are considered. Crop models were calibrated with field data from Abeledo et al. (2008) and Cartelle et al. (2006). Most promising adaptation options to be analyzed by the ARS approach are identified in a pilot stage with the models DSSAT4.5 and SiriusQuality v.2, subsequently simulating the selected adaptation combinations by the whole ensemble of 11 crop models. The adaptation options identified from pilot stage were: a cultivar with no vernalisation requirements, shortening or extending a 10 % the crop cycle of the standard cultivar, sowing 15 days earlier and 30 days later than the standard date, supplementary irrigation with 40 mm at flowering and full irrigation. These options and those of the standard cultivar and management resulted in 54 combinations and 450.000 runs per crop model. Our

  4. Modeling the biogeomorphic evolutions of coastal dunes in response to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keijsers, J.G.S.; Groot, de A.V.; Riksen, M.J.P.M.

    2016-01-01

    Coastal dunes form in many parts of the world the first flood defense line against the sea. To study effects of climate change on coastal dune evolution, we used a cellular model of dune, beach and vegetation development (DUBEVEG). The model was calibrated and validated against field measurements of

  5. Climate change adaptation in practice: People's responses to tidal flooding in Semarang, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Harwitasari; J.A. van Ast (Jacko)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIn many places in the world the effects of common floods are increased by climate change. In the area around the Indonesian city of Semarang, the number and effects of tidal flooding are becoming more and more severe. We found that the inhabitants used different strategies against the im

  6. Sources of uncertainty in modeling the glaciohydrological response of a Karakoram watershed to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.; Bordoy, R.; Immerzeel, W.W.

    2013-01-01

    In the headwater catchments of the main Asian rivers, glaciohydrological models are a useful tool to anticipate impacts of climatic changes. However, the reliability of their projections strongly depends on the quality and quantity of data that are available for parameter estimation, model calibrati

  7. Education Responses to Climate Change and Quality: Two Parts of the Same Agenda?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangay, Colin; Blum, Nicole

    2010-01-01

    Increasing attention to climate change and the current global economic crisis has underscored the need for approaches to education that equip and empower people of all ages to deal with uncertain environmental, economic and political futures. A range of educational and research initiatives already exist which could support this aim, however,…

  8. Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010–2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha−1 yr−1. Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. - Highlights: • A novel calibration step was introduced for modeling biodiversity with ForSAFE-Veg. • Modeled increases in tree cover are consistent with empirical studies. • Reductions in N deposition decreased future graminoid percent cover. • Critical loads of N to protect biodiversity should consider climate change effects. - Subalpine plant biodiversity in Rocky Mountain National Park has already been impacted by N deposition and climate change and is expected to experience significant future effects

  9. Developing a Pilot Indicator System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Arndt, D. S.; Pouyat, R. V.; Aicher, R.; Lloyd, A.; Malik, O.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    The National Climate Indicators System is being developed as part of sustained assessment activities associated with the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA is conducted under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is required to provide a report to Congress every 4 years. The National Climate Indicators System is a set of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information. The Indicators System will address questions important to multiple audiences including (but not limited to) nonscientists (e.g., Congress, U.S. citizens, students), resource managers, and state and municipal planners in a conceptually unified framework. The physical, ecological, and societal indicators will be scalable, to provide information for indicators at national, state, regional, and local scales. The pilot system is a test of the Indicators System for evaluation purposes to assess the readiness of indicators and usability of the system. The National Climate Indicator System has developed a pilot given the recommendations of over 150+ scientists and practitioners and 14 multidisciplinary teams, including, for example, greenhouse gases, forests, grasslands, water, human health, oceans and coasts, and energy. The pilot system of indicators includes approximately 20 indicators that are already developed, scientifically vetted, and implementable immediately. Specifically, the pilot indicators include a small set of global climate context indicators, which provide context for the national or regional indicators, as well as a set of nationally important U.S. natural system and human sector indicators. The purpose of the pilot is to work with stakeholder communities to evaluate the system and the individual indicators using a robust portfolio of evaluation studies, which

  10. Growth characteristics and response to climate change of Larix Miller tree-ring in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As one of the earliest species used in dendrochronological studies, Larix responds sensitively to climate change. In this study, nine larch species and one variety from eleven sites were collected to study the growth characteristics of tree-ring width using dendrochronological methods. Ten residual tree-ring chronologies were developed to analyze their relationships with regional standardized anomaly series by Pearson’s correlation analysis. The results suggest that most of the chronologies had significantly positive correlations with the mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in May. The spring temperature evidently limited the radial growth of the larch species without precipitation control. The largest mean tree-ring width was found in Himalayan Larch in Jilong, whereas Master Larch in Si’er reflected the smallest mean value. Both species presented little climate information in this study. Chinese, Potanin, and Tibetan larches are significantly correlated with climate change, implying a huge potential for climate history reconstruction. The elevation of the sampling sites appears to be an important condition for tree-ring growth of larches responding to climate factors.

  11. An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

    2009-12-01

    A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions

  12. Climate change: The challenges for public health preparedness and response- An Indian case study

    OpenAIRE

    Patil Rajan; Deepa T

    2007-01-01

    Extremes weather changes surpassing their usual statistical ranges and tumbling records in India could be an early warning bell of global warming. Extreme weather events like the recent record setting in western Indian city of Mumbai or all time high fatalities due to the heat wave in southern Indian states or increasing vulnerability of easten Indian states to flood could all be a manifestation of climate change in the Asian subcontinent. While the skeptics may be inclined to dismiss these e...

  13. Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Peter V; Miniat, Chelcy F; Elliott, Katherine J; Swank, Wayne T; Brantley, Steven T; Laseter, Stephanie H

    2016-09-01

    Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply.

  14. Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Peter V; Miniat, Chelcy F; Elliott, Katherine J; Swank, Wayne T; Brantley, Steven T; Laseter, Stephanie H

    2016-09-01

    Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply. PMID:27038309

  15. Olive response to water availability: yield response functions, soil water content indicators and evaluation of adaptability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riccardi, Maria; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Menenti, Massimo; Monaco, Eugenia; De Lorenzi, Francesca

    2013-04-01

    Climate evolution, with the foreseen increase of temperature and frequency of drought events during the summer, could cause significant changes in the availability of water resources specially in the Mediterranean region. European countries need to encourage sustainable agriculture practices, reducing inputs, especially of water, and minimizing any negative impact on crop quantity and quality. Olive is an important crop in the Mediterranean region that has traditionally been cultivated with no irrigation and is known to attain acceptable production under dry farming. Therefore this crop will not compete for foreseen reduced water resources. However, a good quantitative knowledge must be available about effects of reduced precipitation and water availability on yield. Yield response functions, coupled with indicators of soil water availability, provide a quantitative description of the cultivar- specific behavior in relation to hydrological conditions. Yield response functions of 11 olive cultivars, typical of Mediterranean environment, were determined using experimental data (unpublished or reported in scientific literature). The yield was expressed as relative yield (Yr); the soil water availability was described by means of different indicators: relative soil water deficit (RSWD), relative evapotranspiration (RED) and transpiration deficit (RTD). Crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions and exhibit threshold responses, so for the yield functions of each olive cultivar both linear regression and threshold-slope models were considered to evaluate the best fit. The level of relative yield attained in rain-fed conditions was identified and defined as the acceptable yield level (Yrrainfed). The value of the indicator (RSWD, RED and RTD) corresponding to Yrrainfed was determined for each cultivar and indicated as the critical value of water availability. The error in the determination of the critical value was estimated. By means of a

  16. Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Ferrise, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    The uncertainty about climate change (CC) complicates impact adaptation and risk management evaluation at the regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty and for simulating and communicating climate change impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here we apply an ensemble of crop models for adapting rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain), constructing adaptation response surfaces (ARS). Our methodology has been adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). Impact response surfaces (IRS) are plotted surfaces showing the response of an impact variable (here crop yield Y) to changes in two explanatory variables (here precipitation P and temperature T). By analyzing adaptation variables such as changes in crop yield (ΔY) when an adaptation option is simulated, these can be interpreted as the adaptation response to potential changes of P and T, i.e. ARS. To build these ARS, we explore the sensitivity of an ensemble of wheat models to changes in T and P. Baseline (1981-2010) T and P were modified using a delta change approach with changes in the seasonal patterns. Three levels of CO2 (representing future conditions until 2050) and two actual soil profiles are considered. Crop models were calibrated with field data from Abeledo et al. (2008) and Cartelle et al. (2006). Most promising adaptation options to be analyzed by the ARS approach are identified in a pilot stage with the models DSSAT4.5 and SiriusQuality v.2, subsequently simulating the selected adaptation combinations by the whole ensemble of 11 crop models. The adaptation options identified from pilot stage were: a cultivar with no vernalisation requirements, shortening or extending a 10 % the crop cycle of the standard cultivar, sowing 15 days earlier and 30 days later than the standard date, supplementary irrigation with 40 mm at flowering and full irrigation. These options and those of the standard cultivar and management resulted in 54 combinations and 450.000 runs per crop model. Our

  17. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  18. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  19. Climate change negotiation simulations for students: responses across gender and age.A case study: San Francisco State University World Climate Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasheva, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    For decades, role-play and simulation exercises have been utilized for learning and policy decision making. While the power of Model UN simulations in building first-person experience and understanding of complex international issues is well known, the effectiveness of simulations for inspiring citizen engagement in scientific public-policy issues is little studied. My work hypothesizes that climate-change negotiation simulations can enhance students' scientific literacy and policy advocacy. It aims to determine how age and gender influence the responsiveness of students to such simulations. During the 2015 fall semester, I am conducting World Climate exercises for fellow graduate and undergraduate students at San Francisco State University. At the end of the exercise, I will have collected the responses to an anonymous questionnaire in which the participants indicate age and gender. The questionnaire asks participants to describe their hopes and fears for the future and to propose public and personal actions for achieving a strong climate change agreement. I am tracking differences to determine whether participants' age and gender correlate with particular patterns of feeling and thinking. My future research will aim to determine whether and how strongly the World Climate Exercise has affected participants' actual policy engagement. This work will also reflect on my experiences as a World Climate facilitator. I will describe the facilitation process and then discuss some of my observations from the sessions. I will specify the challenges I have encountered and suggest strategies that can strengthen the learning process. World Climate is a computer-simulation-based climate change negotiations role-playing exercise developed by Climate Interactive in partnership with the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

  20. Modeling of Oceanic Gas Hydrate Instability and Methane Release in Response to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reagan, Matthew; Reagan, Matthew T.; Moridis, George J.

    2008-04-15

    Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating global climate, implicating global oceanic deposits of methane gas hydrate as the main culprit in instances of rapid climate change that have occurred in the past. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those predicted under future climate change scenarios, is poorly understood. To determine the fate of the carbon stored in these hydrates, we performed simulations of oceanic gas hydrate accumulations subjected to temperature changes at the seafloor and assessed the potential for methane release into the ocean. Our modeling analysis considered the properties of benthic sediments, the saturation and distribution of the hydrates, the ocean depth, the initial seafloor temperature, and for the first time, estimated the effect of benthic biogeochemical activity. The results show that shallow deposits--such as those found in arctic regions or in the Gulf of Mexico--can undergo rapid dissociation and produce significant methane fluxes of 2 to 13 mol/yr/m{sup 2} over a period of decades, and release up to 1,100 mol of methane per m{sup 2} of seafloor in a century. These fluxes may exceed the ability of the seafloor environment (via anaerobic oxidation of methane) to consume the released methane or sequester the carbon. These results will provide a source term to regional or global climate models in order to assess the coupling of gas hydrate deposits to changes in the global climate.

  1. Abrupt Holocene climate change and potential response to solar forcing in western Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavin, Daniel G.; Henderson, Andrew C. G.; Westover, Karlyn S.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Walker, Ian R.; Leng, Melanie J.; Hu, Feng Sheng

    2011-05-01

    Several abrupt climate events during the Holocene, including the widely documented oscillation at 8.2 thousand years before present (ka), are attributed to changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Additional mechanisms, such as interactions between atmospheric circulation, ice-sheet dynamics, and the influence of solar irradiance, also have been proposed to explain abrupt climatic events, but evidence remains elusive. This study presents evidence from multi-proxy analyses on the Holocene sediments of Eleanor Lake, interior British Columbia. Climatic inferences from our decadal-resolution record of biogenic silica (BSi) abundance are supported by changes in diatom and pollen assemblages from the same core and correlations with existing regional climate records. The BSi record reveals abrupt and persistent climatic shifts at 10.2, 9.3, and 8.5 ka, the latter two of which are coeval with major collapses of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The record also reveals a short-term cooling at 8.2 ka that is distinct from the 8.5 ka event and similar in magnitude to several other late-Holocene coolings. BSi is correlated with solar-irradiance indices ( r = 0.43-0.61), but the correlation is opposite in sign to that expected from direct solar forcing and weakens after 8 ka. Possible mechanisms causing the abrupt and persistent climate changes of the early Holocene include 1) sudden losses of ice and proglacial lake extent, causing a shift in the meridional structure of atmospheric circulation, 2) a possible link between solar minima and El Niño-like conditions that are correlated with warm spring temperature in interior British Columbia, and 3) the influence of solar irradiance variability on the position of the polar jet, possibly via effects on the strength of the glacial anticyclone.

  2. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  3. Response of double cropping suitability to climate change in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In adapting US agriculture to the climate of the 21st century, a key unknown is whether cropping frequency may increase, helping to offset projected negative yield impacts in major production regions. Combining daily weather data and crop phenology models, we find that cultivated area in the US suited to dryland winter wheat–soybeans, the most common double crop (DC) system, increased by up to 28% from 1988 to 2012. Changes in the observed distribution of DC area over the same period agree well with this suitability increase, evidence consistent with climate change playing a role in recent DC expansion in phenologically constrained states. We then apply the model to projections of future climate under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios and estimate an additional 126–239% increase, respectively, in DC area. Sensitivity tests reveal that in most instances, increases in mean temperature are more important than delays in fall freeze in driving increased DC suitability. The results suggest that climate change will relieve phenological constraints on wheat–soy DC systems over much of the United States, though it should be recognized that impacts on corn and soybean yields in this region are expected to be negative and larger in magnitude than the 0.4–0.75% per decade benefits we estimate here for double cropping. (letter)

  4. Response of double cropping suitability to climate change in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifert, Christopher A.; Lobell, David B.

    2015-02-01

    In adapting US agriculture to the climate of the 21st century, a key unknown is whether cropping frequency may increase, helping to offset projected negative yield impacts in major production regions. Combining daily weather data and crop phenology models, we find that cultivated area in the US suited to dryland winter wheat-soybeans, the most common double crop (DC) system, increased by up to 28% from 1988 to 2012. Changes in the observed distribution of DC area over the same period agree well with this suitability increase, evidence consistent with climate change playing a role in recent DC expansion in phenologically constrained states. We then apply the model to projections of future climate under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios and estimate an additional 126-239% increase, respectively, in DC area. Sensitivity tests reveal that in most instances, increases in mean temperature are more important than delays in fall freeze in driving increased DC suitability. The results suggest that climate change will relieve phenological constraints on wheat-soy DC systems over much of the United States, though it should be recognized that impacts on corn and soybean yields in this region are expected to be negative and larger in magnitude than the 0.4-0.75% per decade benefits we estimate here for double cropping.

  5. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  6. On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change and its implication for terrestrial biosphere models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Migliavacca

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate systems through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. Land surface models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we analyzed the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize the sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling in the future. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species with 12 phenological models of different complexity to predict leaf bud-burst.

    The evaluation of different phenological models indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, though to a lesser extent, to chilling models based on the alternating model structure.

    We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario. Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% CI: 2.4 day century−1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 day century−1 for A1fi, whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 day century−1 in the simulated trends. The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied somewhat among models (±7.7 day century−1 for A1fi, ±3.6 day centur