WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change response

  1. Manufacturers response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Rattanakit, Rattanachai

    2007-01-01

    There is now clear scientific proof which indicates that emissions from economic activity, particularly the industrial sector, are the main cause of the change in global climatic conditions. The Stern Review describes climate change as the greatest market failure the world has ever seen. UK alone contributes more than 6.5 billion tonnes of the global carbon dioxide emissions every year. This, along with other scientific evidence, has led the UK government to publish Climate ...

  2. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  3. Climate Change and Corporate Environmental Responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Dewan Mahboob HOSSAIN; Chowdhury, M. Jahangir Alam

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, as an international environmental issue, is getting a lot of attention. The negative effects of climate change have become one of the most talked about issues among Governments, scientists, environmentalists and others. It is said that business activities are affecting the climate negatively. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the activities of the businesses should be controlled and encouraged to perform in a socially responsible manner. The article ...

  4. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  5. The response of glaciers to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, Elisabeth Jantina

    2003-01-01

    The research described in this thesis addresses two aspects of the response of glaciers to climate change. The first aspect deals with the physical processes that govern the interaction between glaciers and climate change and was treated by (1) studying the spatial and temporal variation of the glac

  6. Ecological response to global climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

  7. An ethical response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoffrey William Lamberton

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ethical question of the responsibility of business organisations to respond to climate change. Ethical principles of ‘polluter pays‘, ‘historic culpability’ and ‘equitable distribution of the carbon budget’ are applied to the question of ‘should business respond to climate change’, using rights and utilitarian ethical analyses. An ethical argument is established for business organisations to decarbonise their production and distribution systems rather than delay action. Government policies required to remove barriers which are delaying a widespread and meaningful response by business to humankind’s greatest moral challenge together with the ethical implications are discussed.

  8. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  9. Climate change and irrigation. An Australian response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climatic changes on a global or regional scale, resulting from human activities, and the likely effects of such changes on Australia were discussed. Irrigation concerns of the Murray-Darling Basin in southeast Australia associated with global climate were described. Potential risks for regional economies and communities (agriculture in this instance) which may be significant, were assessed. Restructuring of the irrigation industry, and appropriate policy initiatives were urged now, while there is still some time to prepare. Application of the 'Precautionary Principle' to reduce global climate change effects was recommended. (This principle states that in areas threatened by severe climatic change lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as an excuse to delay decisive measures designed to mitigate environmental degradation). Bold policy adjustments and the creation of a new institutional framework to promote sustainable resource management were called for. It was suggested that the region could become a 'laboratory' for the whole world for assessing the effectiveness of managerial responses to environmental changes

  10. Climate change and our responsibilities as chemists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bassam Z. Shakhashiri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available For almost all of 4.5 billion years, natural forces have shaped Earth’s environment. But, during the past century, as a result of the Industrial Revolution, which has had enormous benefits for humans, the effects of human activities have become the main driver for climate change. The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by burning fossil fuels for energy to power the revolution causes an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing planetary emission. The imbalance is warming the planet and causing the atmosphere and oceans to warm, ice to melt, sea level to rise, and weather extremes to increase. In addition, dissolution of part of the carbon dioxide in the oceans is causing them to acidify, with possible negative effects on marine biota. As citizens of an interconnected global society and scientists who have the background to understand climate change, we have a responsibility first to understand the science. One resource that is available to help is the American Chemical Society Climate Science Toolkit, www.acs.org/climatescience. With this understanding our further responsibility as citizen scientists is to engage others in deliberative discussions on the science, to take actions ourselves to adapt to and mitigate human-caused climate change, and urge others to follow our example.

  11. Climate Change: Ethics and Collective Responsibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, K.; Brown, M. B.; Mann, M. E.; Lewandowsky, S.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change poses grave risks for societies and people all around the earth. Though details of the risks remain uncertain, they include accelerating sea level rise and ocean acidification, regional drought, floods and heat waves, crop failures and more: dangerous changes are already occurring, while GHG emissions continue to grow, ice melts, water expands, temperature rises, and weather patterns shift. Our roles as individuals and nations in producing the emissions of GHGs responsible for this episode of climate change, and the actions that could be taken to mitigate it, raise difficult ethical questions. When we are responsible for putting others in danger, we have a duty to mitigate that danger. But our sense of responsibility is diluted here: each individual act contributes only minutely to the overall risks, and the links between individual acts and the harms they produce are complex, indirect and involve many other agents. In these circumstances, our sense of personal responsibility is diminished and uncoordinated, individual responses to the risks become ineffective. We propose a view of the ethics of climate change that begins with the tragedy of the commons: Free use of a shared, indispensable resource can lead to catastrophe as the resource is overrun, and the destruction of the commons arises from choices that are individuallyrational, if each person's choice is made independently of others'. Finally, individuals often fail to make ethical choices when the links between individual actions and their negative outcomes are obscure, when individual choices are made separately and privately, and when special interests stand to gain from actions that are generally harmful. Philosophical work in ethics has emphasized the role of ethics in enabling cooperation between individuals and coordinating group responses to problems, while recent work on social rules has modeled them as generalized forbiddings, taught and enforced by 'blocking' behaviours which

  12. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  13. A dampened land use change climate response towards the tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molen, van der M.K.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Hazeleger, W.

    2011-01-01

    In climate simulations we find a pronounced meridional (equator to pole) gradient of climate response to land cover change. Climate response approaches zero in the tropics, and increases towards the poles. The meridional gradient in climate response to land cover change results from damping feedback

  14. Undocumented migration in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

    2016-01-01

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986–1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

  15. Dilemma of choice: China's response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Ming-Te Hung; Tung-Chieh Tsai

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, erratic global climate conditions have generated an incessant series of natural disasters in China. This article seeks to explore China's climate change policies. This article addresses the impacts of climate change on China's environment and China's perception, principle, objective and policy actions in response to climate change.

  16. Comment 5 - agricultural response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The complex interrelationship between global climate change and agricultural production will become one of the most significant policy issues, in both developed and developing countries, in the first decades of the 21st century. Global and regional climate change will modify both agricultural production capacity and its location. And the intensity of agricultural production will contribute to environmental change at both the regional and global levels

  17. Responses of large mammals to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

    2014-01-01

    Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change. PMID:27583293

  18. Financing Vietnam's Response to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment; World Bank Group; United Nations Development Programme

    2015-01-01

    The Government of Vietnam (GoV) has conducted a Climate Public Expenditure and Investment Review (CPEIR) with the support of the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The review examined Vietnam’s policies and climate change expenditure for the period 2010–2013 from five ministries (MONRE, MOIT, MARD, MOC, and MOT) and three provinces (Bac Ninh, Quang Nam and An G...

  19. Update on Canada's response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The challenge facing Canada regarding climate change was discussed with reference to federal initiatives and the Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF) extension. Phase 1 of Canada's strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was also discussed. The national process from 1998 to 2000 involved 450 experts from government, industry and non-governmental organizations who created 16 working groups to develop analysis and policy options for reducing emissions. Each working group produced foundation papers regarding the state of various sectors of the Canadian economy. They also directed option reports describing a full range of options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Graphs depicting greenhouse gas emissions by province and by sector for 1990 and 2010 showed that Alberta and Ontario are the provinces that emit, and will continue to emit, the most greenhouse gases. The transportation sector is responsible for the greatest amount of emissions into the atmosphere, followed by the industrial, power generation and agricultural sectors. The action plan for budget 2000 called for $1.1 billion over 5 years to reduce emissions, increase understanding of climate science, and build a foundation for future action. The federal measures are designed to obtain 65 Mt/year during 2008-2012 commitment period, taking Canada one third of the way towards the Kyoto target. For the transportation sector, this means an objective of increasing fuel efficiency of vehicles and having a supply of lower emitting fuels. New fuels include ethanol produced from biomass. The use of fuel cell vehicles that emit low or no emissions will require the development of a refuelling infrastructure. Energy efficiencies and technologies are also encouraged in aviation, rail, marine and trucking industries. Energy efficiency in urban transportation is encouraged through best urban transportation practices and strategies to reduce greenhouse gases. The CCAF structure is extended to 2004. The hydrogen and fuel

  20. What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sgrò, Carla M; Terblanche, John S; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2016-01-01

    Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory. PMID:26667379

  1. Climate change and our responsibilities as chemists

    OpenAIRE

    Bassam Z. Shakhashiri; Jerry A. Bell

    2014-01-01

    For almost all of 4.5 billion years, natural forces have shaped Earth’s environment. But, during the past century, as a result of the Industrial Revolution, which has had enormous benefits for humans, the effects of human activities have become the main driver for climate change. The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by burning fossil fuels for energy to power the revolution causes an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing planetary emission. The imbalance ...

  2. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can't yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes

  3. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  4. Long-term ecophysiological responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boesgaard, Kristine Stove; Ro-Poulsen, Helge

    Plant physiology is affected by climate change. Acclimations of photosynthetic processes are induced by short-term changes in climatic conditions. Further acclimation can be caused by longterm adjustments to climate change due to ecosystem-feedbacks. The aim of this PhD was to investigate plant...... physiological responses to climate change in a seasonal and long-term perspective. The effects of elevated CO2, passive night time warming and periodic summer drought as single factor and in combination, on plant physiology were investigated in the long-term multifactorial field experiment CLIMAITE in a Danish...... term responses of plant physiology to the climate change factors were investigated. In the CLIMAITE-experiment it has been shown that 2 years of treatment altered physiological responses in Deschampsiaand Calluna. In the work of this PhD similar responses were observed after 6 years of treatment...

  5. The physician's response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarfaty, Mona; Abouzaid, Safiya

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will have an effect on the health and well-being of the populations cared for by practicing physicians. The anticipated medical effects include heat- and cold-related deaths, cardiovascular illnesses, injuries and mental harms from extreme weather events, respiratory illnesses caused by poor air quality, infectious diseases that emanate from contaminated food, water, or spread of disease vectors, the injuries caused by natural disasters, and the mental harm associated with social disruption. Within several years, such medical problems are likely to reach the doorsteps of many physicians. In the face of this reality, physicians should assume their traditional roles as medical professionals, health educators, and community leaders. Clinicians provide individual health services to patients, some of whom will be especially vulnerable to the emerging health consequences of global warming. Physicians also work in academic medical institutions and hospitals that educate and provide continuing medical education to students, residents, and practitioners. The institutions also produce a measurable carbon footprint. Societies of physicians at national, state, and local levels can choose to use their well-developed avenues of communication to raise awareness of the key issues that are raised by climate change as well as other environmental concerns that have profound implications for human health and well-being. PMID:19418286

  6. Eco-theological Responses to Climate Change in Oceania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubow, Cecilie; Bird, Cliff

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores eco-theological responses to climate change in Oceania. First, we review central texts in the contextual theological tradition in Oceania, focusing on recent responses to climate change. This points to a body of theological texts integrating climate change into a broader effort...... to reform classical theologies and church practices. Secondly, we identify challenges facing the contextual theologies, among them recent claims about climate-change-denying responses by Biblicist Christians in the Pacific region. These challenges apart, we suggest, thirdly, that the churches are...... important actors in the cultural modeling of climate change. We highlight the uniqueness of Christian narratives from the Pacific region, while alluding to the fact that literal interpretations of scriptures are influential in many other parts of the world too....

  7. The climate change response bill 2010: An assessment

    OpenAIRE

    GORECKI, PAUL K.; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is an important problem. It would be desirable to have legislation that would put Ireland on a low-cost and equitable trajectory to a zero-carbon economy. The draft Climate Change Response Bill 2010 will not achieve that. The exact emission reduction targets for 2020 are ambiguous, but considerably more ambitious than Ireland's obligations under EU legislation. EU legislation severely constrains the options for domestic climate policy so that the extra emission reduction would ...

  8. The Climate Change Response Bill 2010: An Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    GORECKI, PAUL K.; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is an important problem. It would be desirable to have legislation that would put Ireland on a low-cost and equitable trajectory to a zero-carbon economy. The draft Climate Change Response Bill 2010 will not achieve that. The exact emission reduction targets for 2020 are ambiguous, but considerably more ambitious than Ireland's obligations under EU legislation. EU legislation severely constrains the options for domestic climate policy so that the extra emission reduction would ...

  9. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs

  10. Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions

  11. Financing Vietnam's Response to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment; World Bank Group; United Nations Development Programme

    2015-01-01

    Climate-related hazards have adverse effects on national growth and poverty reduction, affecting the poor and several sectors of the economy simultaneously. At its current rate of growth, Vietnam will become a major global greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. The Government of Vietnam initiated the Climate Public Expenditure and Investment Review (CPEIR) to advance an understanding of the current...

  12. A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

  13. Responsible investors acting on climate change. Investors acting on climate change. Climate: Investors take action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some investors are willing to lower the carbon emission financed by their investment, recognizing that climate change has financial impacts. At first they measure the carbon footprint of their portfolio, than initiate shareholder engagement actions at oil and gas companies, publish list of exclusion composed of the most carbon-intensive companies and ask for ex fossil fuels indices. In June 2015, Novethic launches the first actualisation of its study released on February 2015 on the mobilisation of investors on climate change over the whole 2015 year. The trend is gaining momentum since more than 200 additional investors publicly disclosed commitments to integrate climate risk into their investment and management practices. In September 2015, for its second update of the report on how investors are taking action on climate change, more than 800 entities were screened. As a key result, investor's actions gain momentum: approaches are growing in number and becoming more expert, divestments are widespread in Europe, and green investments promises are more ambitious. The last edition of November 2015 highlights and scans an exclusive panel of 960 investors worth Euro 30 trillion of assets who have made steps forward to tackle climate change. During the last 8 months, their number has almost increased twofold. This document brings together the first edition of Novethic's study and its three updates

  14. A Global Review of Insurance Industry Responses to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Evan Mills

    2009-01-01

    A vanguard of insurers is adapting its business model to the realities of climate change. In many ways, insurers are still catching up both to mainstream science and to their customers, which, in response to climate change and energy volatility, are increasingly changing the way they construct buildings, transport people and goods, design products and produce energy. Customers, as well as regulators and shareholders, are eager to see insurers provide more products and services that respond to...

  15. Responsible Climate Change Adaptation : Exploring, analysing and evaluating public and private responsibilities for urban adaptation to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mees, Heleen

    2014-01-01

    Cities are vulnerable to climate change. To deal with climate change, city governments and private actors such as businesses and citizens need to adapt to its effects, such as sea level rise, storm surges, intense rainfall and heatwaves. However, adaptation planning and action is often hampered when the relevant public and private actors have only vague and ambiguous responsibilities. Some exploration on the issue of public and private responsibilities has been undertaken in the literature, b...

  16. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas;

    2008-01-01

    bewildering number of interactions. For example, individuals within a population may compete for space and other resources and, being embedded in an ecosystem, individuals in any population may also interact with individuals of competing species as well as those from adjacent trophic levels. In principal, the......it is well established that climatic as well as biological factors, in concert, form the mechanistic basis for our understanding of how populations develop over time and across space. Although this seemingly suggests simplicity, the climate-biology dichotomy of population dynamics embraces a...... approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...

  17. Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutin, Stan; Lane, Jeffrey E

    2014-01-01

    Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made. PMID:24454546

  18. Responsibility for private sector adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Schneider

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007 indicates that vulnerable industries should adapt to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events along with slowly shifting mean annual temperatures and precipitation patterns, to prevent major damages or periods of inoperability in the future. Most articles in the literature on business management frame organizational adaptation to climate change as a private action. This makes adaptation the sole responsibility of a company, for its sole benefit, and overlooks the fact that some companies provide critical goods and services such a food, water, electricity, and medical care, that are so vital to society that even a short-term setback in operations could put public security at risk. This raises the following questions: (1 Who is responsible for climate change adaptation by private-sector suppliers of critical infrastructure? (2 How can those who are identified to be responsible, actually be held to assume their responsibility for adapting to climate change? These questions will be addressed through a comprehensive review of the literature on business management, complemented by a review of specialized literature on public management. This review leads to several conclusions. Even though tasks that formerly belonged to the state have been taken over by private companies, the state still holds ultimate responsibility in the event of failure of private-sector owned utilities, insofar as they are “critical infrastructure.” Therefore, it remains the state’s responsibility to foster adaptation to climate change with appropriate action. In theory, effective ways of assuming this responsibility, while enabling critical infrastructure providers the flexibility adapt to climate change, would be to delegate adaptation to an agency, or to conduct negotiations with stakeholders. In view of this theory, Germany will be used as a case study to demonstrate how private-sector critical

  19. Behaviour and climate change : consumer perceptions of responsibility.

    OpenAIRE

    Wells, V.K.; Ponting, C.; Peattie, K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the under-researched notion of consumer responsibility, a potentially significant influence on consumer behaviour that marketers and policymakers may be able to harness as they attempt to respond to environmental challenges such as climate change. The paper uses data derived from a commercially motivated survey (n = 1513) to explore domestic consumption behaviours most closely associated with the issue of disruptive climate change. A measure of 'General Environmental Respo...

  20. Carbon Dynamics in Heathlands in Response to a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Pia Lund

    Climate is changing, and more adverse changes are expected in the future. Changes, caused by continuously rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses as CO2, will affect ecosystem processes and functions in the future and hence the cycling of carbon. The vaste amount of studies have...... focused on effects of climate change on aboveground biomass, less have been conducted on belowground biomass, and the thesis is one of few studies comprising both above- and belowground biomass and take interactions of climate change factors into account. To follow the fate of carbon in the ecosystem we...... persistent changes over the years. Responses of aboveground and belowground biomass were coupled, and Deschampsia flexuosa showed high ability to adapt to treatments. As the major response was observed belowground, I further studied decomposition of fine roots. Fine roots of Deschampsia flexuosa from deep...

  1. Predicting the Response of Electricity Load to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Colman, Jesse [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kalendra, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-28

    Our purpose is to develop a methodology to quantify the impact of climate change on electric loads in the United States. We perform simple linear regression, assisted by geospatial smoothing, on paired temperature and load time-series to estimate the heating- and coolinginduced sensitivity to temperature across 300 transmission zones and 16 seasonal and diurnal time periods. The estimated load sensitivities can be coupled with climate scenarios to quantify the potential impact of climate change on load, with a primary application being long-term electricity scenarios. The method allows regional and seasonal differences in climate and load response to be reflected in the electricity scenarios. While the immediate product of this analysis was designed to mesh with the spatial and temporal resolution of a specific electricity model to enable climate change scenarios and analysis with that model, we also propose that the process could be applied for other models and purposes.

  2. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. PMID:26950769

  3. RESPONSE AND FEEDBACKS OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past century is projected to cause a warming of the Earth. Climate Change predictions vary by region and terrestrial biosphere response, and feedbacks will be ecosystem specific. Forests play a major role in the Eart...

  4. Climate Change and the Concept of Shared Responsibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinsen, Franziska; Seibt, Johanna

    2013-01-01

    to articulate our moral concerns about emergent effects in complex systems, such as climate change. Working from Iris Marion Young’s “social connection model of responsibility”, we present a notion of shared ecological responsibility with global and intergenerational scope. We show that our account...... spatial to the temporal dimension of such wide-scope results of individual actions. This shift from ‘global ethics’ to ‘intergenerational ethics’ and, in particular, ‘climate ethics’ requires some new analytical concepts, however. In this paper we provide a definition of wide-scope responsibility geared...

  5. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  6. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaver, T.L.; Clark, C.M.; Compton, J.E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C.P.; Band, L.E.; Baron, J. S.; Davidson, E.A.; Tague, C.L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J.A.; Herrick, J.D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C.L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  7. Western Mountain Initiative: predicting ecosystem responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jill S.; Peterson, David L.; Wilson, J.T.

    2008-01-01

    Mountain ecosystems of the western United States provide irreplaceable goods and services such as water, timber, biodiversity, and recreational opportunities, but their responses to climatic changes are complex and not well understood. The Western Mountain Initiative (WMI), a collaboration between USGS and U.S. Forest Service scientists, catalyzes assessment and synthesis of the effects of disturbance and climate change across western mountain areas, focusing on national parks and surrounding national forests. The WMI takes an ecosystem approach to science, integrating research across science disciplines at scales ranging from field studies to global trends.

  8. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions. PMID:26564848

  9. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H.; Bassett, Hannah R.

    2015-11-01

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society’s diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.

  10. Corporate responses to climate change and financial performance, the impact of climate policy

    OpenAIRE

    Ziegler, Andreas R.; Busch, Timo; Hoffmann, Volker H.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between corporate activities to address climate change and stock performance. By separately analyzing the US and European stock markets for different sub-periods, we highlight the impact of the underlying climate policy regime. Methodologically, we compare risk-adjusted returns of stock portfolios comprising corporations that differ in their responses to climate change. In this respect, we apply the flexible Carhart fourfactor model besides the restricted ...

  11. High Resolution Modelling of Crop Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirmasoudi, S. S.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

    2014-12-01

    Crop production is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climatic variability and change. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and other greenhouse gases are causing increases in global temperature. In western North America, water supply is largely derived from mountain snowmelt. Climate change will have a significant impact on mountain snowpack and subsequently, the snow-derived water supply. This will strain water supplies and increase water demand in areas with substantial irrigation agriculture. Increasing temperatures may create heat stress for some crops regardless of soil water supply, and increasing surface O3 and other pollutants may damage crops and ecosystems. CO2 fertilization may or may not be an advantage in future. This work is part of a larger study that will address a series of questions based on a range of future climate scenarios for several watersheds in western North America. The key questions are: (1) how will snowmelt and rainfall runoff vary in future; (2) how will seasonal and inter-annual soil water supply vary, and how might that impacts food supplies; (3) how might heat stress impact (some) crops even with adequate soil water; (4) will CO2 fertilization alter crop yields; and (5) will pollution loads, particularly O3, cause meaningful changes to crop yields? The Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) Spatial Hydrometeorological Model is an innovative, efficient, high-resolution model designed to assess climate driven changes in mountain snowpack derived water supplies. We will link GENESYS to the CROPWAT crop model system to assess climate driven changes in water requirement and associated crop productivity for a range of future climate scenarios. Literature bases studies will be utilised to develop approximate crop response functions for heat stress, CO2 fertilization and for O3 damages. The overall objective is to create modeling systems that allows meaningful assessment of agricultural productivity at a watershed scale under a

  12. Coccolithophore calcification response to past ocean acidification and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dea, Sarah A; Gibbs, Samantha J; Bown, Paul R; Young, Jeremy R; Poulton, Alex J; Newsam, Cherry; Wilson, Paul A

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are forcing rapid ocean chemistry changes and causing ocean acidification (OA), which is of particular significance for calcifying organisms, including planktonic coccolithophores. Detailed analysis of coccolithophore skeletons enables comparison of calcite production in modern and fossil cells in order to investigate biomineralization response of ancient coccolithophores to climate change. Here we show that the two dominant coccolithophore taxa across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) OA global warming event (~56 million years ago) exhibited morphological response to environmental change and both showed reduced calcification rates. However, only Coccolithus pelagicus exhibits a transient thinning of coccoliths, immediately before the PETM, that may have been OA-induced. Changing coccolith thickness may affect calcite production more significantly in the dominant modern species Emiliania huxleyi, but, overall, these PETM records indicate that the environmental factors that govern taxonomic composition and growth rate will most strongly influence coccolithophore calcification response to anthropogenic change. PMID:25399967

  13. Climate Change Responsibility and China's Endeavor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu Huaqing; Yu Shengmin

    2011-01-01

    The problem of climate change is a global challenge. It is closely associated with social development and human survival, and it has a significant impact to all countries on energy develop- ment, economic competitiveness, technological innovation, and way of life. In recent years, with the rapid economic development in China, there is a rumor that the rapid growth of China's carbon dioxide emission offset the efforts of the international community in reducing emissions, and China should bear the international responsibility corresponding to its significant role in greenhouse gas emission, which obviously are unfair and not objective. As this paper reveals, "China environment responsibility" that is the socalled "China environment threat" or theories, China has made a positive contribution to addressing the climate change in the past and China will still be the backbone on the protection of global climate in the future.

  14. The dynamic response of Kolohai Glacier to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. G. Sayyed

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers are one of the important components of local, regional and continental water resource and are also key indicators of climate change. Glaciers provide a wealth of information about how climatic components of the earth have changed in the past. Changes in weather condition year after year cause variations in the amount of snow deposited on the glacier and in the amount of ice lost by melting of glacier. Interest in worldwide monitoring of glaciers has grown as rapid glacier recessions in many regions of the world have been evidenced. This further recognized need for a comprehensive assessment of the world's glaciers in driving efforts to devise and refine methods of extracting glacier information from satellite data. Due to adverse weather conditions, limited time is available in summer for detailed glacier studies. Remote sensing is of immense value as a mapping tool for measuring the spatial extent, mass balance and variations in the terminus of the glacier. Present study was carried out for Kolohai glacier of Lidder valley concentrated near Kolohai Mountain. This study is an attempt to reconstruct glacier fluctuations in response to climate changes through time series. A series of multidate imageries since 1992 to 2006 was used for mapping the changes in geometry and dynamics of glacier. Topographic maps, Landsat ETM, LISS-III imageries and high resolution DEM were used to conduct this study. The core of the methodology is to calculate the changes in areal extent and ELA variations of the glacier over the referenced time period and to determine the AAR of glacier. This was done by manual delineation, segment ratio of images to delineate changes. The study revealed that the Kolohai Glacier shows recession in terms of spatial extent, and variations in the terminus of the glacier in response to climate change.

  15. Modelling hydrological responses of Nerbioi River Basin to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendizabal, Maddalen; Moncho, Roberto; Chust, Guillem; Torp, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Future climate change will affect aquatic systems on various pathways. Regarding the hydrological cycle, which is a very important pathway, changes in hydrometeorological variables (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) in first order impact discharges. The fourth report assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is evidence that the recent warming of the climate system would result in more frequent extreme precipitation events, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. Available research and climate model outputs indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99%). For example, it is likely that up to 20% of the world population will live in areas where river flood potential could increase by the 2080s. In Spain, within the Atlantic basin, the hydrological variability will increase in the future due to the intensification of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This might cause flood frequency decreases, but its magnitude does not decrease. The generation of flood, its duration and magnitude are closely linked to changes in winter precipitation. The climatic conditions and relief of the Iberian Peninsula favour the generation of floods. In Spain, floods had historically strong socio-economic impacts, with more than 1525 victims in the past five decades. This upward trend of hydrological variability is expected to remain in the coming decades (medium uncertainty) when the intensification of the positive phase of the NAO index (MMA, 2006) is considered. In order to adapt or minimize climate change impacts in water resources, it is necessary to use climate projections as well as hydrological modelling tools. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate and assess the hydrological response to climate changes in flow conditions in Nerbioi river

  16. Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity

    OpenAIRE

    Challinor, AJ; Parkes, B.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.

    2015-01-01

    Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis ...

  17. Policy Responses to Climate Change in Southeast Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Toth, F.L.

    1992-01-01

    This report presents an overview of and summarizes the general conclusions from a UNEP project conducted in Southeast Asia to identify socio-economic impacts of and policy responses to climate change. A series of agricultural crops, river basins, and coastal areas were selected in order to study the biophysical impacts, which were then traced through to the most heavily affected economic activities and social groups. Policy exercises were conducted in Malaysia and Indonesia to present the re...

  18. Pleistocene Climate, Phylogeny, and Climate Envelope Models: An Integrative Approach to Better Understand Species' Response to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    A Michelle Lawing; David Polly, P

    2011-01-01

    Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we sy...

  19. The demographic response to Holocene climate change in the Sahara

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Katie; Timpson, Adrian

    2014-10-01

    The timing and development of Holocene human occupation in the now hyperarid Sahara has major implications for understanding links between climate change, demography and cultural adaptation. Here we use summed probability distributions from 3287 calibrated 14C dates from 1011 archaeological sites to demonstrate a major and rapid demographic shift between 10,500 and 5500 years BP. This event corresponds with the African Humid Period (AHP) and is sub-continental in scale, indicating climate as the prime factor driving broad-scale population dynamics in northern Africa. Furthermore, by providing a high temporal resolution proxy for effective carrying capacity our population curve offers an independent estimate of environmental change in northern Africa, indicating a temporal delay in the terrestrial response to atmospheric climate change. These results highlight the degree to which human demography is a function of environment at the appropriate scale of observation in both time and space and sheds important new light on the social response to global environmental change.

  20. Climate change and the importance of empowering citizens : Science teachers' beliefs about educational response in Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Maharjan, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Educational response to climate change is one of the measures to prepare people to combat climate change. This thesis explores the lived experiences of secondary Science teachers from Kathmandu Valley on the perception of climate change, the way they handled climate change issues in the classroom setting, the problems and challenges they came across in climate change communication in the classrooms and the relevance of existing secondary Science curriculum in relation to climate change. The t...

  1. Responses of vegetation growth to climate change in china

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Zhou, T.

    2015-04-01

    Global warming-related climate changes have significantly impacted the growth of terrestrial vegetation. Quantifying the spatiotemporal characteristic of the vegetation's response to climate is crucial for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation. In this study, we employed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) that was calculated for various time scales (1 to 12 months) from monthly records of mean temperature and precipitation totals using 511 meteorological stations in China to study the response of vegetation types to droughts. We separated the NDVI into 12 time series (one per month) and also used the SPEI of 12 droughts time scales to make the correlation. The results showed that the differences exist in various vegetation types. For needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland, they responded to droughts at long time scales (9 to 12 months). For grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation, they responded to droughts at short time scales (1 to 5months). The positive correlations were mostly found in arid and sub-arid environments where soil water was a primary constraining factor for plant growth, and the negative correlations always existed in humid environments where temperature and radiation played significant roles in vegetation growth. Further spatial analysis indicated that the positive correlations were primarily found in northern China, especially in northwestern China, which is a region that always has water deficit, and the negative correlations were found in southern China, especially in southeastern China, that is a region has water surplus most of the year. The disclosed patterns of spatiotemporal responses to droughts are important for studying the impact of climate change to vegetation growth.

  2. Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is

  3. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelson, G.C.; Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Havlik, P.; Ahammad, H.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lampe, von M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Croz, d' D.M.; Meijl, van H.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Muller, C.; Popp, A.; Robertson, R.; Robinson, S.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.A.; Willenbockel, D.

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and

  4. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  5. Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

  6. Response of Groundwater to Climate Change under Extreme Climate Conditions in North China Plain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ying Zhang; Jincui Wang; Jihong Jing; Jichao Sun

    2014-01-01

    The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the water shortage areas of China. Lack of water resources restricted the economic and social development of North China area and resulted in deterio-ration of ecosystem and natural environment. Influenced by the climate change and human activities, the water circulation of NCP was largely changed and the crisis of water resources was aggravated. Therefore, it is important to study the features of the extreme climate and the response mechanism of groundwater to climate change. We analyzed the trend of climate change and extreme climate features in the past 60 years based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations. And then the response characteristics of groundwater to climate change were discussed. The average temperature of NCP was in an obviously upward trend. The overall precipitation variation was in a downward trend. The cli-mate change in this area showed a warming-drying trend. The intensity of extreme precipitation dis-played a trend of declining and then increasing from north to south as well as declining from eastern coastal plain to the piedmont plain. Grey correlation degree analysis indicated that groundwater depth had a close relationship with precipitation and human activities in NCP. The response of groundwater level to precipitation differed from the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain to the coastal plain. The response was more obvious in the coastal plain than the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain and the middle plain. The precipitation influenced the groundwater depth both directly and indirectly. Under the condition of extreme precipitation, the impact would aggravate, in the forms of rapid or lag raise of groundwater levels.

  7. Hydrological Response to Climate Change over the Blue Nile Basin Distributed hydrological modeling based on surrogate climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhane, F. G.; Anyah, R. O.

    2010-12-01

    The program Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2009) model has been applied to the Blue Nile Basin to study the hydrological response to surrogate climate changes over the Blue Nile Basin (Ethiopia) by downscaling gridded weather data. The specific objectives of the study include (i) examining the performance of the SWAT model in simulating hydrology-climate interactions and feedbacks within the entire Blue Nile Basin, and (ii) investigating the response of hydrological variables to surrogate climate changes. Monthly weather data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) are converted to daily values as input into the SWAT using Monthly to Daily Weather Converter (MODAWEC). Using the program SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm), data from 1979 to 1983 are applied for sensitivity analysis and calibration (P-factor = 90%, R-factor =0.7, R2 =0.93 and NS=0.93) and subsequently to validate hindcasts over the period 1984-1989 (R2 =0.92 and NS=0.92). The period from 1960-2000 was used as baseline and has been used to determine the changes and the effect of the surrogate climate changes over the Blue Nile Basin. Overall, our surrogate climate change based simulations indicate the hydrology of the Blue Nile catchment is very sensitive to potential climate change with 100%, 34% and 51% increase to the surface runoff, lateral flow and water yield respectively for the A2 scenario surrogate. Key Words: SWAT, MODAWEC, Blue Nile Basin, SUFI-2, climate change, hydrological modeling, CRU

  8. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Allen, Jenica M.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Travers, Steven E.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Ault, Toby R.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Cleland, Elsa E.

    2012-01-01

    Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

  9. Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J. M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Betancourt, J. L.; Travers, S. E.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Davies, T. J.; Kraft, N. J. B.; Ault, T. R.; Bolmgren, K.; Mazer, S. J.; McCabe, G. J.; McGill, B. J.; Parmesan, C.; Salamin, N.; Schwartz, M. D.; Cleland, E. E.

    2012-01-01

    Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

  10. Farmer responses to climate change and sustainable agriculture. A review

    OpenAIRE

    Fleming, Aysha; Vanclay, Frank

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a major issue for agricultural sustainability, and changes in farming practices will be necessary both to reduce emissions and to adapt to a changing climate and to new social expectations. A complicating factor is that the processes of behaviour change are complex and can be slow to occur. Discourse analysis is useful in understanding how the discourses farmers are embedded in contribute to resistance to change. Discourses are particular ways of using language in particular...

  11. Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCain, Christy; Szewczyk, Tim; Bracy Knight, Kevin

    2016-06-01

    The rush to assess species' responses to anthropogenic climate change (CC) has underestimated the importance of interannual population variability (PV). Researchers assume sampling rigor alone will lead to an accurate detection of response regardless of the underlying population fluctuations of the species under consideration. Using population simulations across a realistic, empirically based gradient in PV, we show that moderate to high PV can lead to opposite and biased conclusions about CC responses. Between pre- and post-CC sampling bouts of modeled populations as in resurvey studies, there is: (i) A 50% probability of erroneously detecting the opposite trend in population abundance change and nearly zero probability of detecting no change. (ii) Across multiple years of sampling, it is nearly impossible to accurately detect any directional shift in population sizes with even moderate PV. (iii) There is up to 50% probability of detecting a population extirpation when the species is present, but in very low natural abundances. (iv) Under scenarios of moderate to high PV across a species' range or at the range edges, there is a bias toward erroneous detection of range shifts or contractions. Essentially, the frequency and magnitude of population peaks and troughs greatly impact the accuracy of our CC response measurements. Species with moderate to high PV (many small vertebrates, invertebrates, and annual plants) may be inaccurate 'canaries in the coal mine' for CC without pertinent demographic analyses and additional repeat sampling. Variation in PV may explain some idiosyncrasies in CC responses detected so far and urgently needs more careful consideration in design and analysis of CC responses. PMID:26725404

  12. Biogeochemical responses of shallow coastal lagoons to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, A.; Newton, A.; Tett, P.; Fernandes, T.

    2009-04-01

    carefully monitored so that appropriate responses can be timely to mitigate the impacts from global change. References: Eisenreich, S.J. (2005). Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - A report to the European Water Directors. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Comission-Joint Research Centre. Ispra, Italy. 253pp. Kerr, R. (2008). Global warming throws some curves in the Atlantic Ocean. Science, 322, 515. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., Miller, H. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996pp. Lloret, J., Marín, A., Marín-Guirao, L. (2008). Is coastal lagoon eutrophication likely to be aggravated by global climate change? Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 78, 403-412. Snoussi, M., Ouchani, T., Niazi, S. (2008). Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 77, 206-213.

  13. Venezuelan policies and responses on climate change and natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponi, Claudio; Rosales, Anibal

    1992-06-01

    Venezuela is an intertropical country which has the fortune not to suffer the severities of natural hazards which are usual in other countries of this region. It is a developing country, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil production and exports. Its greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low, but it is expected that the planned industrialization development will bring an associated increase in emissions. As a nation, Venezuela has a highly developed environmental consciousness. The Ministry of environment, the first in Latin America, was created in 1977, and has been the main contributor to the national policy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction. As in many developing countries actions and responses in this regard have been rather limited in scope, and even though legislation has been developed, many problems arise for its enforcement. Several local warning systems, civil defense procedures, and infrastructural protection measures are operational, however they have not been designed, revised, or planned taking into consideration the potential impacts of climate change. Presently Venezuela is an active participant state in the negotiation for a framework convention on climate change. That is a very difficult negotiation for our country. Here we have to conciliate enviromental principles with national economic interests. The elements of our position in this contex are presented in this statement.

  14. Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgeson, Lucien; Maslin, Mark; Poessinouw, Martyn; Howard, Steve

    2016-06-01

    Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined `adaptation economy', we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city's gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from #15 million to #1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies.

  15. Responsible Climate Change Adaptation : Exploring, analysing and evaluating public and private responsibilities for urban adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mees, Heleen

    2014-01-01

    Cities are vulnerable to climate change. To deal with climate change, city governments and private actors such as businesses and citizens need to adapt to its effects, such as sea level rise, storm surges, intense rainfall and heatwaves. However, adaptation planning and action is often hampered when

  16. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  17. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs. PMID:26429363

  18. Response of Mycorrhizal Diversity to Current Climatic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen E. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Form and function of mycorrhizas as well as tracing the presence of the mycorrhizal fungi through the geological time scale are herein first addressed. Then mycorrhizas and plant fitness, succession, mycorrhizas and ecosystem function, and mycorrhizal resiliency are introduced. From this, four hypotheses are drawn: (1 mycorrhizal diversity evolved in response to changes in Global Climate Change (GCC environmental drivers, (2 mycorrhizal diversity will be modified by present changes in GCC environmental drivers, (3 mycorrhizal changes in response to ecological drivers of GCC will in turn modify plant, community, and ecosystem responses to the same, and (4 Mycorrhizas will continue to evolve in response to present and future changes in GCC factors. The drivers of climate change examined here are: CO2 enrichment, temperature rise, altered precipitation, increased N-deposition, habitat fragmentation, and biotic invasion increase. These impact the soil-rhizosphere, plant and fungal physiology and/or ecosystem(s directly and indirectly. Direct effects include changes in resource availability and change in distribution of mycorrhizas. Indirect effects include changes in below ground allocation of C to roots and changes in plant species distribution. GCC ecological drivers have been partitioned into four putative time frames: (1 Immediate (1–2 years impacts, associated with ecosystem fragmentation and habitat loss realized through loss of plant-hosts and disturbance of the soil; (2 Short-term (3–10 year impacts, resultant of biotic invasions of exotic mycorrhizal fungi, plants and pests, diseases and other abiotic perturbations; (3 Intermediate-term (11–20 year impacts, of cumulative and additive effects of increased N (and S deposition, soil acidification and other pollutants; and (4 Long-term (21–50+ year impacts, where increased temperatures and CO2 will destabilize global rainfall patterns, soil properties and plant ecosystem resilience. Due

  19. The Gaia Commission: Climate Change and Moral Responsibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwyer, James

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This short story is set in the future. In it, Francis, a retired professor of bioethics, is scheduled to appear before the Gaia Commission to account for his carbon emissions. Because his carbon emissions contributed to climate change, which harmed people and destroyed ecosystems, he is charged with recklessness, negligence, and indifference. He seems to have lived a modest and responsible life, except for the carbon emissions that he generated by flying long distances to attend ethics conferences and to give lectures. The narrator of the story is assigned to defend Francis before the Gaia Commission, so he contacts Francis to learn more about the case and to prepare a defense. The two of them examine Francis’ conduct and thinking. This fictional account raises ethical issues for all of us who have high carbon footprints, but especially for those of us who work in bioethics.

  20. An Insurance-Led Response to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Webster, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This has the undesirable consequence of increasing insurance costs, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate change. This is unfortunate because insurance provides a financial mechanism that mitigates some of the consequences of climate change, allowing damage from increasingly frequent events to be repaired. We observe that the insurance industry could reclaim any increase in claims due to climate change, by increasing the insurance premiums on energy producers for example, without needing government intervention or a new tax. We argue that this insurance-led levy must acknowledge both present carbon emissions and a modern industry's carbon inheritance, that is, to recognise that fossil-fuel driven industrial growth has provided the innovations and conditions needed for modern civilisation to exist and develop. The increases in premiums would initially b...

  1. Corporate response to climate change: language, power and symbolic construction

    OpenAIRE

    Ferguson, John; Sales de Aguiar, Thereza Raquel; Fearfull, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – The objective of this paper is to explore corporate communications related to climate change in both a voluntary and mandatory setting. Adopting a critical perspective, the paper examines how companies who participated in the voluntary UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) and the UK Government’s mandatory Carbon Reduction Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme (CRC) positioned themselves within the climate change debate. In particular, our analysis draws attention to how companies, thr...

  2. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  3. A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

    2016-07-01

    Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. PMID:27109012

  4. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... can be caused by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate change can affect our health. It can lead to More heat-related illness ...

  5. Individual and Collective Responsiveness to Climate Change: A Response to Dwyer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macpherson, Cheryl C

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available James Dwyer’s story about a fictional GAIA Commission highlighted unresolved concerns about the scope of bioethics, specifically regarding the global distribution of, and responsibility for, the health impacts of climate change. This commentary discusses the potential impact of an individual on greenhouse gas emissions and the importance of engaging institutional responses in order to have meaningful impacts.

  6. Fisheries management responses to climate change in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Thomas Talund; Hoff, Ayoe; Frost, Hans S.

    2015-01-01

    plan may be needed. Therefore, this paper investigates the economic impacts of managing the cod, sprat and herring stocks in the eastern Baltic Sea, given on-going climate change, which is known to affect cod recruitment negatively. It is shown that climate change may have severe biological and...... scenarios in which the economic consequences of different management objectives for the fishing fleets are assessed through a dynamic multi-species and multi-fleet bio-economic assessment model that include both species interactions and climate change.......The long term management plan for cod in the eastern Baltic Sea was introduced in 2007 to ensure the full reproductive capacity of cod and an economically viable fishing industry. If these goals are to be fulfilled under changing environmental conditions, a readjustment of the current management...

  7. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menzel, A.; Sparks, T.; Estrella, N.; Koch, E.; Aasa, A.; Ahas, R.; Alm-Kübler, K.; Bissolli, P.; Braslavska, O.; Briede, A.; Chmielewski, F.M.; Crepinsek, Z.; Curnel, Y.; Dahl, A.; Defila, C.; Donnelly, A.; Filella, Y.; Jatczak, K.; Mage, F.; Mestre, A.; Nordli, O.; Penuelas, J.; Pirinen, P.; Remisova, V.; Scheifinger, H.; Striz, M.; Susnik, A.; Vliet, van A.J.H.; Wielgolaski, F.E.; Zach, S.; Zust, A.

    2006-01-01

    Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide

  8. Vegetation response to climate change : implications for Canada's conservation lands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies have shown that Canada's national parks are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A wide range of biophysical climate change impacts could affect the integrity of conservation lands in each region of Canada. This report examines the potential impact of climate change on landscape alterations and vegetation distribution in Canada's wide network of conservation lands. It also presents several ways to integrate climate change into existing conservation policy and adaptation strategies. Canada's conservation lands include provincial parks, migratory bird sanctuaries, national wildlife areas and wildlife protected areas. This is the first study to examine biome changes by applying an equilibrium Global Vegetation Model (GVM) to Canada's network of national park systems. Some of the policy and planning challenges posed by changes in landscape level vegetation were also addressed. The report indicates that in terms of potential changes to the biome classification of Canada's national forests, more northern biomes are projected to decrease. These northern biomes include the tundra, taiga and boreal conifer forests. 56 refs., 8 tabs., 6 figs

  9. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration......Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in...... TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for...

  10. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.;

    2015-01-01

    an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration......Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty......-NPP) and TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land...

  11. Greenhouse gas emissions considered responsible for climate change: Environmental indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper concerns the more significant environmental indicators related to the emissions of radiatively and chemically/photochemically active trace gases. Reference is made to the preliminary work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to the proposals made in the framework of the international negotiation on climate change. Aiming to contribute to the definition of a national strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, this paper proposes a possible application of the indicators. The calculation of the indicators is based on the emission estimate performed by ENEA (Italian National Agency for Energy, New Technologies and the Environment) for the Report on the State of the Environment edited by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. Finally, the paper suggests an application of such indicators for the international negotiation, in the framework of the Italian proposal for the Convention on climate change

  12. California climate change, hydrologic response, and flood forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, Norman L.

    2003-11-11

    There is strong evidence that the lower atmosphere has been warming at an unprecedented rate during the last 50 years, and it is expected to further increase at least for the next 100 years. Warmer air mass implies a higher capacity to hold water vapor and an increased likelihood of an acceleration of the global water cycle. This acceleration is not validated and considerable new research has gone into understanding aspects of the water cycle (e.g. Miller et al. 2003). Several significant findings on the hydrologic response to climate change can be reported. It is well understood that the observed and expected warming is related to sea level rise. In a recent seminar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, James Hansen (Director of the Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration) stressed that a 1.25 Wm{sup -2} increase in radiative forcing will lead to an increase in the near surface air temperature by 1 C. This small increase in temperature from 2000 levels is enough to cause very significant impacts to coasts. Maury Roos (Chief Hydrologist, California Department of Water Resources) has shown that a 0.3 m rise in sea level shifts the San Francisco Bay 100-year storm surge flood event to a 10-year event. Related coastal protection costs for California based on sea level rise are shown. In addition to rising sea level, snowmelt-related streamflow represents a particular problem in California. Model studies have indicated that there will be approximately a 50% decrease in snow pack by 2100. This potential deficit must be fully recognized and plans need to be put in place well in advance. In addition, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and result in more intense warm winter-time precipitation events that result in flooding. During anticipated high flow, reservoirs need to release water to maintain their structural integrity. California is at risk of water shortages, floods, and related ecosystem stresses. More research

  13. Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species' responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mair, Louise; Hill, Jane K.; Fox, Richard; Botham, Marc; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D.

    2014-02-01

    There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species' geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming. Here we show that the relative importance of species' abundance trends and habitat availability for British butterfly species vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the subset of species with stable abundances from the mid-1990s to 2009, when abundance trends were generally declining. This suggests that stable (or positive) abundance trends are a prerequisite for range expansion. Given that species' abundance trends vary over time for non-climatic as well as climatic reasons, assessment of abundance trends will help improve predictions of species' responses to climate change, and help us to understand the likely success of different conservation strategies for facilitating their expansions.

  14. Psychological responses to the proximity of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brügger, Adrian; Dessai, Suraje; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Morton, Thomas A.; Pidgeon, Nicholas F.

    2015-12-01

    A frequent suggestion to increase individuals' willingness to take action on climate change and to support relevant policies is to highlight its proximal consequences, that is, those that are close in space and time. But previous studies that have tested this proximizing approach have not revealed the expected positive effects on individual action and support for addressing climate change. We present three lines of psychological reasoning that provide compelling arguments as to why highlighting proximal impacts of climate change might not be as effective a way to increase individual mitigation and adaptation efforts as is often assumed. Our contextualization of the proximizing approach within established psychological research suggests that, depending on the particular theoretical perspective one takes on this issue, and on specific individual characteristics suggested by these perspectives, proximizing can bring about the intended positive effects, can have no (visible) effect or can even backfire. Thus, the effects of proximizing are much more complex than is commonly assumed. Revealing this complexity contributes to a refined theoretical understanding of the role that psychological distance plays in the context of climate change and opens up further avenues for future research and for interventions.

  15. The evolution of multinationals' responses to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Kolk; J. Pinkse

    2005-01-01

    Climate change is one of the environmental issues that has increasingly attracted business attention in the course of the 1990s. While public and policy interest started already in the late 1980s, leading to a first international agreement at the Rio-conference in 1992, the main driver for corporate

  16. The History of Germany's Response to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavender, Jeannine; Jager, Jill

    1993-01-01

    Traces the history of the German climate change debate in the last 50 years and discusses the forces and events that shaped it. Examines the way in which scientists, the government, industry, nongovernmental organizations, and the media entered into and influenced the debate. (54 references) (MDH)

  17. Adjustment to reality - Social response to climate changes in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Rasmus Ole

    2007-01-01

    Greenland has experienced three major socio-economic shifts during the 19th and 20th century, all of them induced by the interactions between the natural system of climate change, and the socio-economic and sociotechnical system of resource exploitation The first was the shift from a sea mammal...

  18. The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bindi, Marco; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2011-01-01

    agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean and south-eastern parts of Europe. Among the adaptation options (i.e. autonomous or planned adaptation strategies) that may be explored to minimize the negative impacts of climate changes and to take advantage...

  19. Soil management challenges in response to climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agriculture has tremendous potential to help solve global food, feed, fiber, and bioenergy challenges and respond to changing climatic conditions provided we do not compromise our soil, water and air resources. This presentation will examine soil management, defined by the Soil Science Society of Am...

  20. Why responses to dramatic climate change are important?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Anders Pape Mφller

    2011-01-01

    @@ Climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented pace with global temperatures and sea-levels setting new records almost every year (IPCC, 2007).While these changes are worrisome due to effects on all biological systems and hence also on humans, even more problematic changes may be in the waiting, because not only is the climate changing, but it is also becoming more extreme.Extreme temperatures, rainfall, droughts, storms and fires are already becoming more common with severe consequences for humans, their crops and domestic animals and all wild organisms.For example, the severe heat wave in 2003 caused an excess mortality of 2,600 humans in France alone (INSERM, 2003), and primary production was suppressed across Europe (Ciais et al.2004).

  1. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined and...... evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change and...... illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  2. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  3. Business Responses to Climate Change. Identifying Emergent Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Companies face much uncertainty about the competitive effects of the recently adopted Kyoto Protocol on global climate change and the current and future regulations that may emerge from it. Companies have considerable discretion to explore different market strategies to address global warming and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This article examines these strategic options by reviewing the market-oriented actions that are currently being taken by 136 large companies that are part of the Global 500. There are six different market strategies that companies use to address climate change and that consist of different combinations of the market components available to managers. Managers can choose between more emphasis on improvements in their business activities through innovation or employ compensatory approaches such as emissions trading. They can either act by themselves or work with other companies, NGOs, or (local) governments

  4. Business Responses to Climate Change. Identifying Emergent Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2005-07-01

    Companies face much uncertainty about the competitive effects of the recently adopted Kyoto Protocol on global climate change and the current and future regulations that may emerge from it. Companies have considerable discretion to explore different market strategies to address global warming and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This article examines these strategic options by reviewing the market-oriented actions that are currently being taken by 136 large companies that are part of the Global 500. There are six different market strategies that companies use to address climate change and that consist of different combinations of the market components available to managers. Managers can choose between more emphasis on improvements in their business activities through innovation or employ compensatory approaches such as emissions trading. They can either act by themselves or work with other companies, NGOs, or (local) governments.

  5. Corporate Response to Climate Change: What do Stakeholders Expect?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S.V. Prasad

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines different perceptions on climate change management and disclosuresfrom the viewpoint of stakeholders in Indian Corporations. The paper shows how climatechange strategies and disclosures at different organizational levels can be linked to thesocietal and competitive contexts that companies face, embedded in a stakeholder view.Companies are divided according to certain attributes - location, geographical spread,industry, degree of vertical integration and diversification, companies prioritizing particularstakeholder groups, and their climate change strategies and disclosures including internalmeasures, supply-chain measures and/or market-based measures that move beyond the supplychain are analyzed.This paper attempts to illustrate how institutional, resource-based, supply chain andstakeholder views are all important to characterize and understand corporate strategicresponses to a sustainability issue.

  6. Building Response Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    This report, Building Response Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America, reports the results of action research to identify and prioritize stakeholder driven, locally relevant response options to climate change in Latin American agriculture. The study has three primary objectives. The first is to develop and apply a pilot methodology for assessing agricultural ...

  7. Joint sciences academies statement: global response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taking into account that there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring, the Joint Science Academies, urge, by this statement, all nations in the line with the UNFCCC principles, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies. Some recommendations are also given. (A.L.B.)

  8. Response of leaching from mire ecosystems to changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objectives of this subproject of SUOSILMU are to determine the role of leaching and retention in the long-term mass balance of mires, the primary regulators in the leaching process and the manner in which climatic change affects the rates of leaching from peatlands. This report focuses on the leaching rates of organic carbon, nitrogen and sulphur from the research sites of Lakkasuo, one of the main research objects of SUOSILMU

  9. 21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

    OpenAIRE

    Marčelja, Stjepan

    2015-01-01

    Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fai...

  10. Implications of and possible responses to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahiluoto, Helena; Rötter, Reimund

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity and seriously undermines rural development prospects. It makes it harder to achieve the Millenium Development Goals and ensure a sustainable future beyond 2015. Findings from the recent 4th assessment report of IPCC, Working Group II indicate that already towards 2050 with respect to food crops yield losses between 10 and 30 % can be expected as compared to current conditions in large parts of Africa, including Western, Eastern and southern...

  11. Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems’ Net Primary Productivity to Future Regional Climate Change in China

    OpenAIRE

    Dongsheng Zhao; Shaohong Wu; Yunhe Yin

    2013-01-01

    The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future clim...

  12. Response of European yews to climate change: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Thomas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Being the longest-lived of all European trees, capable of living significantly over 2,000 years, yew is highly likely to be negatively affected by climate change; this paper explores the changes in distribution and abundance. Main results: Yew is unlikely to migrate north due to its slow rate of invasion, its disjunct soil needs and an inability to cope with the expected rate of climate change. It will, however, retreat from the southern end of its range in Spain due to increased evapotranspiration allied to reduced rainfall. In the south, increased drought will be exacerbated by extreme drought and increased fire frequency. In drier areas at the northern edge of its range, yew will decline where growing on well-drained limestone outcrops with little shelter from the sun (increased evaporation and reduced water availability due to limited root spread.  On wetter northern sites, yew should find better climatic conditions but will be slow to invade new areas due to poorer reproduction affected by reduced pollen production, population fragmentation and limited seed movement. Overall, without our intervention, yew will survive by inertia in the short-term but eventual become extinct in most areas. Of equal concern will be the loss of old veteran individuals and associated biodiversity. Research highlights: There is an urgent need for interventionist management for both old and young trees, relieving the stress on old veteran trees, and planting and maintaining seedlings through vulnerable young age. A list of management priorities is given.Keywords: Yew; Taxus baccata; Temperature; Precipitation; Seedlings; Bioclimate envelope; Species range.

  13. Climate change, water risks and urban responses in the Pearl River Delta, China

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, L.

    2014-01-01

    Currently, concerns are increasing that climate change may intensify natural disasters, like droughts, floods and storms which pose risks to human society, especially at the coastal urban area. This thesis studies climate change, water shortage and flood risks as well as human response measures in the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta (PRD) area in South China. Analysis on climate change in the PRD area is based on existing datasets and model projections, with an integration of literature re...

  14. Policies, Actions and Effects for China s Forestry Response to Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is a great concern of various countries, the public and science community, and forest plays an important role in mitigating climate change. The paper made a comprehensive analysis regarding the policy selections of China to promote forestry response to the global climate change, and elaborated the concrete actions and achievements in this regard. Policy selections include: 1) Reinforce tree planting and afforestation, increase the forested area and enhance the capacity of carbon sequestration...

  15. Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

    2014-09-01

    Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate

  16. Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

    2014-01-01

    Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate

  17. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  18. Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2014-07-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates. PMID:25154102

  19. Water demand management: A policy response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Great Lakes region are discussed. It is predicted that there will be a relative water scarcity in the Great Lakes basin of Ontario as climate changes occur over the next two decades. Declines in water supply will be accompanied by deterioration in the quality of fresh water as higher temperatures and higher relative quantities of discharged wastewater to water bodies reduce both assimilative and dilutive capacity. The most cost effective policy is to encourage water conservation through programs of water demand management. Water should be priced at the point at which its marginal cost is equal to its marginal product, ie. if priced any higher, less efficient substitutes would be used. Not only would water usage, and subsequent degradation of used water, be reduced, but energy and other cost savings would be achieved. The additional costs that apply to water users could be returned to the communities as additional revenue to be applied against sewage treatment upgrades and other environmental enhancements. Communities involved in water study should consider the development of water use analysis models to assist with decision making about allocation, pricing and availability of water supplies. 10 refs

  20. Climate change: Problems of limits and policy responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Present emission rates of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the other principle greenhouse gases (radiatively important gases (RIG's)) - methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons - exceed the capacity of the oceanic, terrestrial, and tropospheric sinks to absorb them. Consequently, their concentrations in the troposphere are increasing and will continue to increase so long as emissions exceed sink capacities. It is assumed that an indefinitely persistent gap between emissions and sinks of RIG's implies indefinite global warming and related changes in regional climates. The high monetary and environmental costs that would be imposed by global warming are discussed along with the changes in energy policy that are needed to insure that these high costs will not be past on to future generations

  1. 21st century change in ocean response to climate forcing

    CERN Document Server

    Marčelja, Stjepan

    2015-01-01

    Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat into the upper ocean demonstrates a consistent link. The modeling is accurate throughout the 20th century despite the different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the strong divergence between land and ocean surface warming. It only fails during the last 15 years when SST drops well below the trend. The finding reinforces the view that slower global warming over the previous 15 years is not a caused by a negative phase of the IPO or by the variations in the upper ocean (top 700 m) warming but results from a change in the ocean behavior leading to increased heat transfer into the deeper ocean.

  2. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  3. Developments in corporate responses to climate change within the past decade

    OpenAIRE

    Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    This chapter provides an overview of the research on business and climate change in the past decade as carried out by the author, with a particular focus on multinational companies. It covers a synopsis of policy developments, companies’ political and market responses to climate change, as indicates areas for future research.

  4. Climate change: a primer

    OpenAIRE

    Khanna, Dr. Perminder; Aneja, Reenu

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Climate has inherent variability manifesting in gradual changes in temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise. The paper entitled “Climate Change: A Primer” attempts to analyse the policy response and adaptation to the need to address climate change at the international and domestic level both. Intense variations in climate would increase the risk of abrupt and non-linear changes in the ecosystem, impacting their function, biodiversity and productivity. The policy initiations and ...

  5. RESPONSES AND FEEDBACK TO GLOBAL FORESTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past century is projected to cause a warming of the Earth. limate change predictions vary by region and terrestrial biosphere response and feedbacks will be ecosystem specific. orests play a major role in the earth's...

  6. Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is a core topic within Earth Science-related courses. This vast topic covers a wide array of different aspects that could be covered, from past climatic change across a vast range of scales to environmental (and social and economic) impacts of future climatic change and strategies for reducing anthropogenic climate change. The Earth Science disciplines play a crucial role in our understanding of past, present and future climate change and the Earth system in addition to understanding leading to development of strategies and technological solutions to achieve sustainability. However, an increased knowledge of the occurrence and causes of past (natural) climate changes can lead to a lessened concern and sense of urgency and responsibility amongst students in relation to anthropogenic causes of climatic change. Two concepts integral to the teaching of climate change are those of scientific uncertainty and complexity, yet an emphasis on these concepts can lead to scepticism about future predictions and a further loss of sense of urgency. The requirement to understand the nature of scientific uncertainty and think and move between different scales in particular relating an increased knowledge of longer timescale climatic change to recent (industrialised) climate change, are clearly areas of troublesome knowledge that affect students' sense of responsibility towards their role in achieving a sustainable society. Study of the attitudes of university students in a UK HE institution on a range of Earth Science-related programmes highlights a range of different attitudes in the student body towards the subject of climate change. Students express varied amounts of ‘climate change saturation' resulting from both media and curriculum coverage, a range of views relating to the significance of humans to the global climate and a range of opinions about the relevance of environmental citizenship to their degree programme. Climate change is therefore a challenging

  7. Our response to climate change requires nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Australian politicians and environmental activists who reject nuclear power as the pivotal technology to combat climate change stand compromised before the court of international scientific opinion and informed global realism. The content of their rhetoric on nuclear matters comprises pseudo-science, innuendo and ideological prejudice communicated through the politics of fear and risk. The recent report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for urgent major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, without which the natural feedback mechanisms that control global temperatures might be overwhelmed. It points out that presently human activity produces around 23.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per annum, about one half of which can be absorbed by soil and ocean. However this capacity is being rapidly destroyed by rising soil and ocean surface temperatures. The report points out that if global warming cannot be kept between manageable limits, it could lead to the destruction of the Great Barrier Reef and the Amazon rainforest, and lead to the forced migration of hundreds of millions of people from equatorial regions and the loss of vast tracts of land as ice caps melt and sea levels rise. For many scientists and engineers concerned with energy and environmental issues it is a matter of deep regret that, the IPCC meetings at Kyoto and Paris have not explicitly endorsed the central role, which could be played by nuclear energy in combating greenhouse gas production and climate change. The environmental benefits from switching to nuclear fuels are striking. The IPCC delegates attending Kyoto in 1997 must have known that light and air-conditioning for the modern International Convention Centre were obtained from an electricity grid supplied partly from a network of 54 nuclear power stations. The greenhouse gas emissions saved by the use of this network and the uranium fuel cycle is around 287 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per

  8. Rapid species responses to changes in climate require stringent climate protection targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van A.J.H.; Leemans, R.

    2006-01-01

    The Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change book consolidates the scientific findings of the Exeter conference and gives an account of the most recent developments on critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, emission pathways and technologica

  9. Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas

    OpenAIRE

    Immerzeel, Walter W.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Konz, M.; Shrestha, A. B.; M. F. P. Bierkens

    2011-01-01

    The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future deve...

  10. Hydrological response to climate change in a glaciated catchment in the Himalayas

    OpenAIRE

    Immerzeel, W. W.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Konz, M.; Shresta, A.B.; M. F. P. Bierkens

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future deve...

  11. Non-linearity dynamics in ecosystem response to climate change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, V.R.; Wilcox, D.A.; Stottlemyer, R.; Barrow, W.; Fagre, D.; Baron, J.; Nielsen, J.L.; Allen, C.D.; Peterson, D.L.; Ruggerone, G.; Doyle, T.

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate cna lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  12. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  13. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  14. State responsibility and compensation for climate change damages - a legal and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Customary international law has that countries may do each other no harm. A country violates this rule if an activity under its control does damage to another country, and if this is done on purpose or due to carelessness. Impacts of climate change fall under this rule, which is reinforced by many declarations and treaties,including the UNFCCC. Compensation for the harm done depends on many parameters, such as emission scenarios, climate change, climate change impacts and its accounting. The compensation paid by the OECD may run up to 4% of its GDP, far exceeding the costs of climate change to the OECD directly. However, the most crucial issues are, first, from when countries can be held responsible and, second, which emissions are acceptable and which careless. This may even be interpreted such that the countries of the OECD are entitled to compensation, rather than be obliged to pay. State responsibility could substantially change international climate policy. (author)

  15. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  16. The importance of phylogeny to the study of phenological response to global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, Charles C.; Willis, Charles G.; Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change has resulted in major changes in the phenology—i.e. the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering and bird migration—of some species but not others. These differential responses have been shown to result in ecological mismatches that can have negative fitness consequences. However, the ways in which climate change has shaped changes in biodiversity within and across communities are not well understood. Here, we build on our previous results that established a link betwee...

  17. Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand

  18. Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Colleoni, Emiliano; Renaud, Julien; Scali, Stefano; Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2016-06-01

    Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring

  19. Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation's Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Kerrie L; Russell, Sally V; Davis, Matthew C

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that individuals - as members of society - play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants' belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed. PMID:27588009

  20. Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation’s Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Kerrie L.; Russell, Sally V.; Davis, Matthew C.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we argue that individuals – as members of society – play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants’ belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed. PMID:27588009

  1. Changes in Production Potential in China in Response to Climate Change from 1960 to 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Luo Liu; Xi Chen; Xinliang Xu; Yong Wang; Shuang Li; Ying Fu

    2014-01-01

    From the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model, changes in the three climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) over the past five decades showed different trends and that production potential was impacted significantly by the geographic heterogeneity of climate change. An increase of approximately 1.58 million tons/decade in production potential correlated with climate change. Regions with increased production potential were located mainly in the Northeast China Pla...

  2. Heating up Climate Literacy Education: Understanding Teachers' and Students' Motivational and Affective Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinatra, G. M.

    2011-12-01

    Changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues, such as human-induced climate change, presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). First, climate science is complex and requires "systems thinking," or the ability to think and reason abstractly about emergent systems (Goldstone & Sakamoto, 2003). Appreciating the intricacies of complex systems and emergent processes has proven challenging for students (Chi, 2005). In addition to these challenges, there are specific misconceptions that may lead thinking astray on the issue of global climate change, such as the distinction between weather and climate (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). As an example, when students are asked about their views on climate change, they often recall individual storm events or very cold periods and use their personal experiences and recollections of short-term temperature fluctuations to assess whether the planet is warming. Beyond the conceptual difficulties, controversial topics offer another layer of challenge. Such topics are often embedded in complex socio-cultural and political contexts, have a high degree of uncertainty, and may be perceived by individuals as in conflict with their personal or religious beliefs (Levinson, 2006, Sinatra, Kardash, Taasoobshirazi, & Lombardi, 2011). Individuals are often committed to their own views on socio-scientific issues and this commitment may serve as a motivation to actively resist new ideas (Dole & Sinatra, 1998). Individuals may also have strong emotions associated with their misconceptions (Broughton, Pekrun, & Sinatra, 2011). Negative emotions, misconceptions, and resistance do not make a productive combination for learning. Further, teachers who find human-induced climate change implausible have been shown to hold negative emotions about having to teach about climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, in preparation), which could affect how they present the topic to students. In this

  3. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.

    2015-12-10

    Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global dataset of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that: (1) re-analyses of existing time-series state how the existing datasets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates and; (4) that new time series be designed to include detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the

  4. Neotropical vegetation responses to Younger Dryas climates as analogs for future climate change scenarios and lessons for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rull, V.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Montoya, E.

    2015-05-01

    The Younger Dryas (YD) climatic reversal (12.86-11.65 cal ky BP), especially the warming initiated at ∼12.6 cal ky BP, and the associated vegetation changes have been proposed as past analogs to forecast the potential vegetation responses to future global warming. In this paper, we applied this model to highland and midland Neotropical localities. We used pollen analysis of lake sediments to record vegetation responses to YD climatic changes, which are reconstructed from independent paleoclimatic proxies such as the Mg/Ca ratio on foraminiferal tests and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) for paleotemperature, and grayscale density and Titanium content for paleoprecipitation. Paleoclimatic reconstructions at both highlands and midlands showed a clear YD signal with a conspicuous warming extending into the early Holocene. A small percentage of taxa resulted to be sensitive to these YD climate changes. Response lags were negligible at the resolution of the study. However, changes in the sensitive taxa were relevant enough to determine changes in biodiversity and taxonomic composition. Highland vegetation experienced mainly intra-community reorganizations, whereas midland vegetation underwent major changes leading to community substitutions. This was explained in terms of threshold-crossing non-linear responses in which the coupling of climatic and other forcings (fire) was proposed as the main driving mechanism. Paleoecology provides meaningful insights on the responses of highland and midland Neotropical vegetation to the YD climatic reversal. Biotic responses at both individual (species) and collective (assemblage) levels showed patterns and processes of vegetation change useful to understand its ecological dynamics, as well as the mechanisms and external drivers involved. The use of paleoecological methods to document the biotic responses to the YD climate shifts can be useful to help forecasting the potential consequences of future global warming. Due to its quasi

  5. Climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on

  6. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  7. Inbreeding and experience affect response to climate change by endangered woodpeckers.

    OpenAIRE

    Schiegg, Karin; Pasinelli, Gilberto; Walters, Jeffrey R.; Daniels, Susan J

    2002-01-01

    In recent decades, female red-cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) have laid eggs increasingly earlier in response to a changing climate, as has been observed in several other bird species breeding at north temperate latitudes. Within each year, females that lay earlier are more productive than females that lay later. However, inexperienced females, experienced females who change mates and inbred birds have not adjusted to the changing climate by laying earlier, and have suffered reproduc...

  8. The palaeolimnological record of regime shifts in lakes in response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Randsalu Wendrup, Linda

    2013-01-01

    Regime shifts in lake ecosystems can occur in response to both abrupt and continuous climate change, and the imprints they leave in palaeolimnological records allow us to investigate and better understand patterns and processes governing ecological changes on geological time scales. This thesis aims at investigating palaeolimnological records of regime shifts in lakes during the Holocene to explore how lake ecosystems responded to climate changes and anthropogenic activities and to identify t...

  9. Adaptation or Manipulation? Unpacking Climate Change Response Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy F. Smith

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Adaptation is a key feature of sustainable social–ecological systems. As societies traverse various temporal and spatial scales, they are exposed to differing contexts and precursors for adaptation. A cursory view of the response to these differing contexts and precursors suggests the particular ability of persistent societies to adapt to changing circumstances. Yet a closer examination into the meaning of adaptation and its relationship to concepts of resilience, vulnerability, and sustainability illustrates that, in many cases, societies actually manipulate their social–ecological contexts rather than adapt to them. It could be argued that manipulative behaviors are a subset of a broader suite of adaptive behaviors; however, this paper suggests that manipulative behaviors have fundamentally different intentions and outcomes. Specifically, adaptive behaviors are respectful of the intrinsic integrity of social–ecological systems and change is directed toward internal or self-regulating modification. By way of contrast, manipulative behaviors tend to disregard the integrity of social–ecological systems and focus on external change or manipulating the broader system with the aim of making self-regulation unnecessary. It is argued that adaptive behaviors represent long-term strategies for building resilience, whereas manipulative behaviors represent short-term strategies with uncertain consequences for resilience, vulnerability, and the sustainability of social–ecological systems. Of greatest significance; however, is that manipulative strategies have the potential to avoid authentic experiences of system dynamics, obscure valuable learning opportunities, create adverse path dependencies, and lessen the likelihood of effective adaptation in future contexts.

  10. Calcification response to climate change in the Pliocene?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Davis

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available As a result of anthropogenic pCO2 increases future oceans are growing warmer and lower in pH and oxygen, conditions that are likely to impact planktic communities. Past intervals of elevated and changing pCO2 and temperatures can offer a glimpse into the response of marine calcifying plankton to changes in surface oceans under conditions similar to those projected for the future. Here we present new records of planktic foraminiferal and coccolith calcification from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 607 (mid North Atlantic and Ocean Drilling Program Site 999 (Caribbean Sea from the Pliocene, the last time that pCO2 was similar to today, and extending through a global cooling event into the Intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (3.3 to 2.6 million years ago. Test weights of both surface-dwelling foraminifera Globigerina bulloides and thermocline-dwelling foraminifera Globorotalia puncticulata vary, with a potential link to regional temperature variation in the North Atlantic, whereas in the tropics Globigerinoides ruber test weight remains stable. In contrast, reticulofenestrid coccoliths show a narrowing size range and a decline in the largest lith diameters over this interval. Our results suggest no major changes in plankton calcification during the high pCO2 Pliocene or during the transition into an icehouse world.

  11. Advances on the Responses of Root Dynamics to Increased Atmospheric CO2 and Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Plant roots dynamics responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, increased temperature and changed precipitation can be a key link between plant growth and long-term changes in soil organic matter and ecosystem carbon balance. This paper reviews some experiments and hypotheses developed in this area, which mainly include plant fine roots growth, root turnover, root respiration and other root dynamics responses to elevated CO2 and global climate change. Some recent new methods of studying root systems were also discussed and summarized. It holds herein that the assemblage of information about root turnover patterns, root respiration and other dynamic responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 and global climatic change can help to better understand and explore some new research areas. In this paper, some research challenges in the plant root responses to the elevated CO2 and other environmental factors during global climate change were also demonstrated.

  12. Response of a Grassland Ecosystem to Climate Change in a Theoretical Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Guodong; MU Mu

    2011-01-01

    The response of a grassland ecosystem to climate change is discussed within the context of a theoretical model.An optimization approach,a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter (CNOP-P) approach,was employed in this study.The CNOP-P,a perturbation of moisture index in the theoretical model,represents a nonlinear climate perturbation.Two kinds of linear climate perturbations were also used to study the response of the grassland ecosystem to different types of climate changes.The results show that the extent of grassland ecosystem variation caused by the CNOP-P-type climate change is greater than that caused by the two linear types of climate change.In addition,the grassland ecosystem affected by the CNOP-P-type climate change evolved into a desert ecosystem,and the two linear types of climate changes failed within a specific amplitude range when the moisture index recovered to its reference state. Therefore,the grassland ecosystem response to climate change was nonlinear. This study yielded similar results for a desert ecosystem seeded with both living and wilted biomass litter.The quantitative analysis performed in this study also accounted for the role of soil moisture in the root zone and the shading effect of wilted biomass on the grassland ecosystem through nonlinear interactions between soil and vegetation.The results of this study imply that the CNOP-P approach is a potentially effective tool for assessing the impact of nonlinear climate change on grassland ecosystems.

  13. Seperating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomiolo, S.; Putten, van der W.H.; Tielbörger, K.

    2015-01-01

    Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatica

  14. Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change in the past and future

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) contains enough water volume to raise global sea level by over 7 meters. It is a relic of past glacial climates that could be strongly affected by a warming world. Several studies have been performed to investigate the sensitivity of the ice sheet to changes in climate, but large uncertainties in its long-term response still exist. In this thesis, a new approach has been developed and applied to modeling the GIS response to climate change. The advantages compared...

  15. Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Do forest owners’ levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile. PMID:27223473

  16. Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile. PMID:27223473

  17. Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Blennow

    Full Text Available Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

  18. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  19. Impacts of Climate Change Induced Vegetation Responses on BVOC Emissions from Subarctic Heath Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valolahti, Hanna Maritta

    The role of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) affecting Earths’ climate system is one of the greatest uncertainties when modelling the global climate change. BVOCs presence in the atmosphere can have both positive and negative climate feedback mechanisms when they involve atmospheric...... the understanding of the controls of BVOC emissions from subarctic ecosystems under climate change by studying the responses to long-term manipulations from leaf level to small ecosystem scale. Leaf-level studies showed different anatomical responses for warming and shading manipulations between studied species......, but no significant effects on BVOC emissions on plant individual level were found. The lack of changes in BVOC emissions after longterm exposure could be at least partially explained by long term-acclimation, which is supported by the observed anatomy responses. Whereas warming was not found to alter the BVOC...

  20. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  1. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  2. The response of soil processes to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emmett, B.A.; Beier, C.; Estiarte, M.;

    2004-01-01

    experimental manipulations involving ecosystem warming and prolonged summer drought in ericaceous shrublands across a European climate gradient. We used retractable covers to create artificial nighttime warming and prolonged summer drought to 20-m(2) experimental plots. Combining the data from across the...

  3. Watershed response and land energy feedbacks under climate change depend upon groundwater.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maxwell, R M; Kollet, S J

    2008-06-10

    Human induced climate change will have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle, creating changes in fresh water resources, land cover, and feedbacks that are difficult to characterize, which makes it an issue of global importance. Previous studies have not included subsurface storage in climate change simulations and feedbacks. A variably-saturated groundwater flow model with integrated overland flow and land surface model processes is used to examine the interplay between coupled water and energy processes under climate change conditions. A case study from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) USA, an important agricultural region that is susceptible to drought, is used as the basis for three scenarios simulations using a modified atmospheric forcing dataset to reflect predicted effects due to human-induced climate change. These scenarios include an increase in the atmospheric temperature and variations in rainfall amount and are compared to the present-day climate case. Changes in shallow soil saturation and groundwater levels are quantified as well as the corresponding energy fluxes at the land surface. Here we show that groundwater and subsurface lateral flow processes are critical in understanding hydrologic response and energy feedbacks to climate change and that certain regions are more susceptible to changes in temperature, while others to changes in precipitation. This groundwater control is critical for understanding recharge and drought processes, possible under future climate conditions.

  4. Adapting responsibilities: an ethical analysis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Harry, Rebecca Jane

    2010-01-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the seminal international agreement that provides a commitment and a corresponding responsibility framework to assist the least developed countries (LDCs) adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. To operationalize these commitments the National Adaptation Programmes of Action was created to assist LDCs implement adaptation projects. This programme has been severely hampered by the limited resources provided by Parties to the ...

  5. Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sean L; Venter, Oscar; Jones, Kendall R; Watson, James E M

    2015-10-01

    The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation. PMID:26555860

  6. Assessing insect responses to climate change: What are we testing for? Where should we be heading?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel R. Andrew

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available To understand how researchers are tackling globally important issues, it is crucial to identify whether current research is comprehensive enough to make substantive predictions about general responses. We examined how research on climate change affecting insects is being assessed, what factors are being tested and the localities of studies, from 1703 papers published between 1985 and August 2012. Most published research (64% is generated from Europe and North America and being dedicated to core data analysis, with 29% of the studies analysed dedicated to Lepidoptera and 22% Diptera: which are well above their contribution to the currently identified insect species richness (estimated at 13% and 17% respectively. Research publications on Coleoptera fall well short of their proportional contribution (19% of publications but 39% of insect species identified, and to a lesser extent so do Hemiptera, and Hymenoptera. Species specific responses to changes in temperature by assessing distribution/range shifts or changes in abundance were the most commonly used methods of assessing the impact of climate change on insects. Research on insects and climate change to date is dominated by manuscripts assessing butterflies in Europe, insects of economic and/or environmental concern in forestry, agriculture, and model organisms. The research on understanding how insects will respond to a rapidly changing climate is still in its infancy, but the current trends of publications give a good basis for how we are attempting to assess insect responses. In particular, there is a crucial need for broader studies of ecological, behavioural, physiological and life history responses to be addressed across a greater range of geographic locations, particularly Asia, Africa and Australasia, and in areas of high human population growth and habitat modification. It is still too early in our understanding of taxa responses to climate change to know if charismatic taxa, such as

  7. Terrestrial ecosystems response to future changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration

    OpenAIRE

    V. K. Arora; G. J. Boer

    2014-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to future changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 is assessed by analyzing simulations, for the 2006–2100 period, made with the second generation Canadian Earth system model (CanESM2) for the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Our interest is in the extent to which global terrestrial carbon pools and sinks, in particular those of the Amazonian region, are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate ...

  8. Favorable climate change response explains non-native species' success in Thoreau's woods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles G Willis

    Full Text Available Invasive species have tremendous detrimental ecological and economic impacts. Climate change may exacerbate species invasions across communities if non-native species are better able to respond to climate changes than native species. Recent evidence indicates that species that respond to climate change by adjusting their phenology (i.e., the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering have historically increased in abundance. The extent to which non-native species success is similarly linked to a favorable climate change response, however, remains untested. We analyzed a dataset initiated by the conservationist Henry David Thoreau that documents the long-term phenological response of native and non-native plant species over the last 150 years from Concord, Massachusetts (USA. Our results demonstrate that non-native species, and invasive species in particular, have been far better able to respond to recent climate change by adjusting their flowering time. This demonstrates that climate change has likely played, and may continue to play, an important role in facilitating non-native species naturalization and invasion at the community level.

  9. Favorable climate change response explains non-native species' success in Thoreau's woods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, Charles G; Ruhfel, Brad R; Primack, Richard B; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Losos, Jonathan B; Davis, Charles C

    2010-01-01

    Invasive species have tremendous detrimental ecological and economic impacts. Climate change may exacerbate species invasions across communities if non-native species are better able to respond to climate changes than native species. Recent evidence indicates that species that respond to climate change by adjusting their phenology (i.e., the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) have historically increased in abundance. The extent to which non-native species success is similarly linked to a favorable climate change response, however, remains untested. We analyzed a dataset initiated by the conservationist Henry David Thoreau that documents the long-term phenological response of native and non-native plant species over the last 150 years from Concord, Massachusetts (USA). Our results demonstrate that non-native species, and invasive species in particular, have been far better able to respond to recent climate change by adjusting their flowering time. This demonstrates that climate change has likely played, and may continue to play, an important role in facilitating non-native species naturalization and invasion at the community level. PMID:20126652

  10. Sex-specific responses to climate change in plants alter population sex ratio and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petry, William K; Soule, Judith D; Iler, Amy M; Chicas-Mosier, Ana; Inouye, David W; Miller, Tom E X; Mooney, Kailen A

    2016-07-01

    Males and females are ecologically distinct in many species, but whether responses to climate change are sex-specific is unknown. We document sex-specific responses to climate change in the plant Valeriana edulis (valerian) over four decades and across its 1800-meter elevation range. Increased elevation was associated with increased water availability and female frequency, likely owing to sex-specific water use efficiency and survival. Recent aridification caused male frequency to move upslope at 175 meters per decade, a rate of trait shift outpacing reported species' range shifts by an order of magnitude. This increase in male frequency reduced pollen limitation and increased seedset. Coupled with previous studies reporting sex-specific arthropod communities, these results underscore the importance of ecological differences between the sexes in mediating biological responses to climate change. PMID:27365446

  11. Agricultural Producer Responses to Weather and Surface Water Variability: Implications for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Manning, Dale T; Goemans, Chris; Maas, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to bring increased temperatures and changes in water availability across the United States. Understanding the responsiveness of irrigated agriculture to changes in available water, both supplemental, and natural, is critical to evaluating the potential impacts of climage change as well as measuring the benefit of new water supply development. Despite representing only half the value of total agricultural sales in the US, previous literature has mostly focused on dr...

  12. Agroecology: Implications for plant response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural ecosystems (agroecosystems) represent the balance between the physiological responses of plants and plant canopies and the energy exchanges. Rising temperature and increasing CO2 coupled with an increase in variability of precipitation will create a complex set of interactions on plant ...

  13. Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC

  14. Biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, C.; Bluhm, B.; Gallucci, V.;

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic Ocean is undergoing major changes in many of its fundamental physical constituents, from a shift from multi- to first-year ice, shorter ice-covered periods, increasing freshwater runoff and surface stratification, to warming and alteration in the distribution of water masses. These cha...

  15. Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2016-04-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(10^5 ) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO_2 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

  16. U.S. and Chinese Scientists Discuss the Ocean's Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMarco, Steven F.; Wu, Dexing

    2009-04-01

    Climate Change and Coastal Oceans Workshop; Qingdao, China, 26-28 October 2008; A 3-day workshop was held in China to discuss coastal ocean processes, the biogeochemistry of large river-dominated ocean margins (RiOMars), and climate change and variability studies; to formulate a strategy for a joint venture to assess how climate change has affected coastal oceans; and to predict the ocean's response to future change scenarios. The workshop, which brought together experts from Texas A&M University (TAMU) and five Chinese universities and institutes—Ocean University of China (OUC), Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), Xiamen University (XU), Tianjin University of Science and Technology (TUST), and East China Normal University (ECNU), highlighted the similarities in topics important to North America and Asia. As indicated by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, climate change imposes far-reaching challenges on society. This workshop focused on two large, river-dominated coastal environments: the Mississippi-Atchafalaya system and the Changjiang estuary. Numerous parallels exist between the impacts of the Changjiang on the East China Sea and the Mississippi on the Gulf of Mexico. These RiOMars are ideal for examining the impacts of climate change because they are characterized by large, heavily populated watersheds in two countries that are important in determining the human carbon footprint. The hydrology, biodiversity, and geochemical characteristics of these systems have been greatly influenced by land use and regional-scale climate change. Workshop participants reviewed current progress in understanding physical and biogeochemical processes controlling the two RiOMars, brainstormed challenges in developing a multidisciplinary system capable of assessing and predicting impacts of global climate change on these RiOMars, and identified a multifaceted approach to address these challenges.

  17. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  18. Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio; Ragone, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O($10^5$) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting - at any lead time and in an ensemble sense - the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO$_2$ using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as their spatial patter...

  19. Response of Spring Phenology of Main Gymnosperm to Climate Change in Harbin City Proper

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change has caused phenology change of vegetation.This is especially obvious in urban area.This paper reveals response mechanism of spring phenology of main gymnosperm in Harbin City proper to climate change based on relationship study between two typical phenophases(beginning of bud burst and beginning of leaf expansion) of Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis),Koyama spruce(Picea koraiensis Nakai),needle fir(Abies nephrolepis) and Pinus sylvestnis var.mongolica Litv.and the temperature of every ten ...

  20. Climate change, uncertainty, and resilient fisheries: Institutional responses through integrative science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, K.; Charles, A.; Barange, M.; Brander, Keith; Gallucci, V.F.; Gasalla, M.A.; Khan, A.; Munro, G.; Murtugudde, R.; Ommer, R.E.; Perry, R.I.

    This paper explores the importance of a focus on the fundamental goals of resilience and adaptive capacity in the governance of uncertain fishery systems, particularly in the context of climate change. Climate change interacts strongly with fishery systems, and adds to the inherent uncertainty in...... processes – to support suitable institutional responses, a broader planning perspective, and development of suitable resilience-building strategies. The paper explores how synergies between institutional change and integrative science can facilitate the development of more effective fisheries policy...... approaches. Specifically, integrative science can provide a vehicle (1) to examine policy options with respect to their robustness to uncertainty, particularly to climate-related regime shifts and (2) to allow better assessments of behavioral responses of fish, humans and institutions. The argument is made...

  1. GIS analysis to apply theoretical Minimal Model on glacier flow line and assess glacier response in climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    M. Moretti; Mattavelli, M; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, V

    2014-01-01

    The development of theoretical work about glacier dynamics has given rise to the construction of mathematical models to assess glacier response in climate change scenarios. Glacier are sentinels of climate condition and the Project of Interest NextData will favour new data production about the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections, as well as new assessments of the impact of climate change on environment. The aim of this specific research program is to develo...

  2. An energetic perspective on the regional response of precipitation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, C. J.; O'Gorman, P. A.

    2011-08-01

    Understanding and predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change is a major challenge with important societal implications. Much progress has been made in understanding the response of global average precipitation by considering the energy balances of the atmosphere and the surface. This energetic perspective reveals that changes in temperature, greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar forcing and cloud feedbacks can all affect the global average rate of precipitation. Local precipitation changes have conventionally been analysed using the water vapour budget, but here we show that the energetic approach can be extended to local changes in precipitation by including changes in horizontal energy transport. In simulations of twenty-first century climate change, this energy transport accounts for much of the spatial variability in precipitation change. We show that changes in radiative and surface sensible heat fluxes are a guide to the local precipitation response over land and at large scales, but not at small scales over the ocean, where cloud and water vapour radiative feedbacks dampen the response. The energetic approach described here helps bridge the gap between our understanding of global and regional precipitation changes. It could be applied to better understand the response of regional precipitation to different radiative forcings, including geo-engineering schemes, as well as to understand the differences between the fast and slow responses of regional precipitation to such forcings.

  3. Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Spottiswoode, Claire N.; Tøttrup, Anders P.; Coppack, Timothy

    2006-01-01

    Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection...

  4. Climate change: what is the optimal international policy response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In each country, the factors which will determine the future growth in emissions of greenhouse gases are: the rate of population growth; the level of economic growth; the speed of technological change and the policy settings adopted. An international model called MAGABARE to develop new carbon dioxide emission scenarios which take account of these factors, is considered. Whether or not there is sustained economic growth, the model shows that emissions from non-OECD countries will grow more rapidly than emissions from OECD economies. The implication is that any agreement to limit emissions that is confined to OECD will become more ineffective overtime and in fact will create incentives to relocate emission intensive activities to non-OECD countries. In the long term, there must be a way of involving non-OECD countries in emission control. One important aspect of this is technology transfer for energy efficiency. A global tradable quota system would provide a mechanism for the international transfer of financial resources and energy efficient technology to developing countries and therefore provide a means of encouraging participation in the scheme. 7 figs., 4 refs

  5. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  6. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The indicators in this bulletin are part of a national set of environmental indicators designed to provide a profile of the state of Canada's environment and measure progress towards sustainable development. A review of potential impacts on Canada shows that such changes would have wide-ranging implications for its economic sectors, social well-being including human health, and ecological systems. This document looks at the natural state of greenhouse gases which help regulate the Earth's climate. Then it looks at human influence and what is being done about it. The document then examines some indicators: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use; global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; and global and Canadian temperature variations

  7. Energy systems and climate change: Approaches to formulating responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A method is presented for computing the direct and indirect radiative forcings of emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane and comparing them in terms of their carbon-equivalent radiative forcing potential as a common unit. Examples illustrate application of the method in comparisons of the carbon-equivalent emissions from coal-, oil- and natural gas-based electricity and combined heat and power production assuming near-, medium- and long-term perspectives. The second article provides a systematic approach to calculating the net cost of avoiding greenhouse-gas emissions by adopting individual supply- and demand-side fuel switching and energy efficiency measures instead of proceeding down business as usual energy paths. Individual measures are grouped and ranked to form scenario packages for total and average costs of avoided carbon equivalent emissions. Examples are presented for Sweden, the United States and the state of Karnataka, India. A key finding is that there appears to exist significant emission avoiding potential that can be exploited at a net economic benefit to society. This potential is insufficient, however, to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases. The suggestion that changes can be made to energy systems leading to significant levels of avoided carbon dioxide emissions at little or no cost to society has been refuted by economic theoreticians, whose writings warn that policies aimed at avoiding greenhouse gas emissions will incur exorbitant costs. A case study of the potential to use ethanol produced from sugar cane as a transportation fuel in Thailand is used to illustrate an integrated approach to evaluating components of alternative energy systems

  8. Effects of climate change on timber supply and possible management responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potential effects of climate change on Pacific Northwest forests include increases in net primary production of some high-elevation or high-latitude forests due to temperature increases; reduced net primary production or tree mortality due to increased water stress or failure to meet chilling requirements; and increased risk of damage from insects and fires. The net effects of climate change will vary depending on the species involved, current environmental conditions, and the nature, magnitude, and rate of climate change. Risks are likely to differ substantially for regeneration, young established forests, and mature established forests. Decisions about responses have to be made in the face of considerable uncertainty about future climate, resources, and market conditions. A proactive option involves developing flexible, adaptive approaches to forest management that serve to reduce future risk. Strategic decisions could include decisions about land purchases or sales based on assessments of risk of impact from climate change. Selection of species least vulnerable to potential climate change, increased investment in fire control and pest management in vulnerable areas, and other operational decisions can be made. Timing of actions will be important, and a substantial body of information is required as a basis for making informed decisions, some of which is already available. 8 refs

  9. A framework for explaining the links between capacity and action in response to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burch, S.; Robinson, J.

    2007-07-01

    Although great strides have been made towards a more nuanced understanding of the impacts and causes of global climate change, the ability to design and implement policy responses that engender effective action has remained insufficient. Recent framings of adaptive capacity and mitigative capacity are built upon in this article, and response capacity is introduced as a useful way to integrate adaptation and mitigation within the context of underlying development paths. In tracing the complex and non-linear relationships between response capacity - which represents a broad pool of development - related resources that can be mobilized in the face of any risk - and real policy and behaviour change in response to climate change, the strong influence of manifold socio-cultural factors is revealed. Only through an analysis of these deeper trajectories can the most important barriers to action begin to be addressed. Theories of risk perception are drawn upon to elucidate the complex nature of the relationship between capacity and action. A deeper understanding of these relationships will aid in the design and implementation of adaptation and mitigation policies that more effectively address the multitude of temporally and contextually specific intricacies of human behaviour in response to risks such as climate change. The literatures of institutional genesis and change, sociotechnical systems, social movements, and collective behaviour change theory (to name but a few) are argued to be crucial to an improved understanding of the underlying development paths which influence both capacity and action. (author)

  10. Sensitivity and response time of natural systems to climatic change in the late quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, H. E.

    Although the leading theory for the cause of climatic change — the Milankovitch perturbations in insolation — indicates variable rates of change at different latitudes, any discussion of the sensitivity and response time of different natural systems is most practical when the climatic change is considered to be relatively abrupt and global rather than gradual and regional. The oxygen-isotope record in glacial ice should have the swiftest response time, but the stratigraphic record in ice sheets at particular localities may be obscured or confused if the glacier flow is irregular. The oxygen-isotope stratigraphy of ocean sediment cores is a sensitive reflection primarily of contemporaneous ice volume, and to a lesser extent ocean temperature. Ocean temperature, however, is recorded more specifically by microfossils in ocean sediments and may reflect global insolation directly, except that in the North Atlantic the influence of glacial meltwater and various feedbacks may override the insolation factor. The differential lags in the response of isotopes and faunas to insolational change are apparent in the ocean sediment stratigraphy. Ice sheets themselves at their terminus may respond to climatic change only slowly if a change in snow accumulation is the factor, because of the time involved in building a thickness sufficient for flow to great distances, but if wastage near the margin is the factor then the response may be more rapid. Some glaciers, however, may advance rapidly without regard to climatic change, as in the case of surging, or they may retreat just as rapidly if they terminate in deep water, through iceberg formation. World sea level is depressed with glacial growth and thus reflects the volume of ice sheets, but isostatic changes in the crust complicate the sea level response not only locally beneath the ice load but elsewhere as well. The pluvial lakes of the American Southwest, correlated in their high levels with intervals of glaciation, show a

  11. Evolutionary response of the egg hatching date of a herbivorous insect under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asch, Margriet; Salis, Lucia; Holleman, Leonard J. M.; van Lith, Bart; Visser, Marcel E.

    2013-03-01

    Under changing climatic conditions, species need to adapt to their new environment. Genetic adaptation is crucial to prevent population extinction but examples where climate change leads to genetic changes in wild populations have been few. The synchronization between the timing of egg hatching of a herbivorous insect, the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), and the seasonal bud burst of its food plant, oak (Quercus robur), has been disrupted by climate change and a quantitative genetic model predicts that selection will delay the egg hatching date. Here we show, using both long-term observational data and experiments, that the egg hatching date has changed genetically, resulting in closer synchrony with oak bud burst. The observed rate of change matches the predicted rate of change of one day per year. Hence, altered selection pressures, caused by environmental change, result in a rapid adaptive response in insect phenology. These genetic changes in a key life-history trait in this herbivorous insect therefore seem to be fast enough to match the climate-change-induced advancement of their host phenology.

  12. Wave climate change, coastline response and hazard prediction in New South Wales, Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Considerable research effort has been directed towards understanding and the gross prediction of shoreline response to sea level rise (eg. Cowell ef a/. 2003a, b). In contrast, synoptic prediction of changes in the planform configuration of shorelines in response to changes in wind and wave climates over many decades has been limited by the lack of geohistorical data on shoreline alignment evolution and long time series of wave climate. This paper presents new data sets on monthly mean wave direction variability based on: a. Waverider buoy data; b. a reconstruction of monthly mid-shelf wave direction, 1877 to 2002 AD from historical MSLP data (Goodwin 2005); and c. a multi-decadal reconstruction of wave direction, in association with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode of climate variability, covering the past millennium. A model of coastline response to the wave climate variability is presented for northern and central New South Wales (NSW) for decadal to multi-decadal time scales, and is based on instrumental and geohistorical data. The sensitivity of the coastline position and alignment, and beach state to mean and extreme wave climate changes is demonstrated (e.g. Goodwin et al. 2006). State changes in geometric shoreline alignment rotation, sand volume (progradation/recession) for NSW and mean wave direction, are shown to be in agreement with the low-frequency change in Pacific-wide climate. Synoptic typing of climate patterns using Self Organised Mapping methods is used to downscale CSIRO GCM output for this century. The synoptic types are correlated to instrumental wave climate data and coastal behaviour. The shifts in downscaled synoptic types for 2030 and 2070 AD are then used as the basis for predicting mean wave climate changes, coastal behaviour and hazards along the NSW coastline. The associated coastal hazards relate to the definition of coastal land loss through rising sea levels and shoreline

  13. 77 FR 19661 - Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-02

    ... AGENCY Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change AGENCY: Environmental... Protection Agency is publishing for public comment a draft long-range strategy that describes how the agency... to be Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose disclosure is restricted...

  14. Plant response to climate change varies with topography, interactions with neighbors, and ecotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liancourt, Pierre; Spence, Laura A; Song, Daniel S; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Sharkhuu, Anarmaa; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Helliker, Brent R; Petraitis, Peter S; Casper, Brenda B

    2013-02-01

    Predicting the future of any given species represents an unprecedented challenge in light of the many environmental and biological factors that affect organismal performance and that also interact with drivers of global change. In a three-year experiment set in the Mongolian steppe, we examined the response of the common grass Festuca lenensis to manipulated temperature and water while controlling for topographic variation, plant-plant interactions, and ecotypic differentiation. Plant survival and growth responses to a warmer, drier climate varied within the landscape. Response to simulated increased precipitation occurred only in the absence of neighbors, demonstrating that plant-plant interactions can supersede the effects of climate change. F. lenensis also showed evidence of local adaptation in populations that were only 300 m apart. Individuals from the steep and dry upper slope showed a higher stress/drought tolerance, whereas those from the more productive lower slope showed a higher biomass production and a greater ability to cope with competition. Moreover, the response of this species to increased precipitation was ecotype specific, with water addition benefiting only the least stress-tolerant ecotype from the lower slope origin. This multifaceted approach illustrates the importance of placing climate change experiments within a realistic ecological and evolutionary framework. Existing sources of variation impacting plant performance may buffer or obscure climate change effects. PMID:23691663

  15. Deep-Sea Biodiversity Response to Abrupt Deglacial and Holocene Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuhara, M.

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution records of microfossil assemblages from deep-sea sediment cores covering the last 20,000 years in the North Atlantic Ocean were investigated to understand biotic responses to abrupt climate changes over decadal-centennial timescales. The results show pervasive control of deep-sea benthic species diversity by rapidly changing climate. Species diversity rapidly increased during abrupt stadial events during the last deglacial and the Holocene interglacial periods. These included the well-known Heinrich 1, the Younger Dryas, and the 8.2 ka events when the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decreased. In addition, there is evidence for quasi-cyclic changes in biodiversity at a ~1500-year periodicity. Statistical analyses revealed that AMOC-driven bottom-water-temperature variability is a primary influence on deep-sea biodiversity. Our results may portend pervasive, synchronous and sudden ecosystem responses to human-induced changes to climate and ocean circulation in this century. Exceptionally highly resolved fossil records help us to understand past, present and future ecosystem responses to climate changes by bridging the gap between biological and palaeontological time-scales.

  16. The possible response of life zones in China under global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiongwen; Zhang, Xin-Shi; Li, Bai-Lian

    2003-09-01

    The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5×0.5° resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular, new life zones, such as subtropical desert (SD), tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW), would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF), tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRF), SD, TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25-35°N. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP), SEBF, WDBF and temperate steppe (TS), and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF, TDE, SEBF, TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC, TRF, TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%, 21%, 3% and 6%, respectively. However, the relative area of SEBF, TS, TD and THP would decrease about 5%, 3%, 19% and 4%, respectively. In all, the relative area of forests (CCF, CMC, WDBF, SEBF, TRF) would increase about 15%, but the relative area of desert (TD, SD, TDE, and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%, respectively. Therefore, responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic, and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change.

  17. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 2: Climate response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Leibensperger

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the climate response to US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950 to 2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970–1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5–1.0 °C on average during 1970–1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960–1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010–2050. We find that most of the potential warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980–2010 period.

  18. Uncertainty of the hydrological response to climate change conditions; 605 basins, 3 hydrological models, 5 climate models, 5 hydrological variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Clark, Martyn; Teuling, Adriaan

    2016-04-01

    Many studies investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydrological response of a catchment and uncertainty of the effect coming from hydrologic modelling (e.g., forcing, hydrologic model structures, and parameters). However, most past studies used only a single or a small number of catchments. To go beyond the case-study, and to assess the uncertainty involved in modelling the hydrological impact of climate change more comprehensively, we studied 605 basins over a wide range of climate regimes throughout the contiguous USA. We used three different widely-used hydrological models (VIC, HBV, SAC), which we forced with five distinct climate model outputs. The hydrological models have been run for a base period (1986-2008) for which observations were available, and for a future period (2070-2099). Instead of calibrating each hydrological model for each basin, the model has been run with a parameter sample (varying from 1600 to 1900 samples dependent on the number of free parameters in the model). Five hydrological states and fluxes were stored; discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, SWE and snow melt, and 15 different metrics and signatures have been obtained for each model run. With the results, we conduct a sensitivity analysis over the change in signatures from the future period compared to the base period. In this way, we can identify the parameters that are responsible for certain projected changes, and identify the processes responsible for this change. By using three different models, in which VIC is most distinctive in including explicit vegetation parameters, we can compare different process representations and the effect on the projected hydrological change.

  19. Unexpected patterns of vegetation distribution response and climate change velocities in cold ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias-Fauria, M.; Johnson, E. A.; Forbes, B. C.; Willis, K. J.

    2013-12-01

    In cold ecosystems such as sub-alpine forests and forest-tundra, vegetation geographical ranges are expected to expand upward/northward in a warmer world. Such moving fronts have been predicted to 1) decrease the remaining alpine area in mountain systems, increasing fragmentation and extinction risk of many alpine taxa, and 2) fundamentally modify the energy budget of newly afforested areas, enhancing further regional warming due to a reduction in albedo. The latter is particularly significant in the forest-tundra, where changes over large regions can have regional-to-global effects on climate. An integral part of the expected range shifts is their velocity. Whereas range shifts across thermal gradients can theoretically be fast in an elevation gradient relative to climate velocity (i.e. rate of climate change) due to the short distances involved, large lags are expected over the flat forest-tundra. Mountain regions have thus been identified as buffer areas where species can track climate change, in opposition to flat terrain where climate velocity is faster. Thus, much shorter time-to-equilibrium are expected for advancing upslope sub-alpine forest than for advancing northern boreal forest. We contribute to this discussion by showing two mechanisms that might largely alter the above predictions in opposite directions: 1) In mountain regions, terrain heterogeneity not only allows for slower climate velocities, but slope processes largely affect the advance of vegetation. Indeed, such mechanisms can potentially reduce the climatic signal in vegetation distribution limits (e.g. treeline), precluding it from migrating to climatically favourable areas - since these areas occur in geologically unfavourable ones. Such seemingly local control to species range shifts was found to reduce the climate-sensitive treeline areas in the sub-alpine forest of the Canadian Rocky Mountains to ~5% at a landscape scale, fundamentally altering the predictions of vegetation response to

  20. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  1. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Yan, J.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhang, Q.; Liu, J.; Meng, Z.; Wang, C.; Chu, G.; Liu, S.; Tang, X.; Liu, Xiuying

    2011-01-01

    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  2. Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Lorien L; Johnson, Bart R; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D

    2015-01-01

    Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual

  3. Soil erosion under climate change: simulatingthe response of temperature and rainfall changes in three UK catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampalini, Rossano; Walker-Springett, Kate J.; Constantine, José Antonio; Hales, Tristram C.

    2015-04-01

    Soil erosion by water cost in environmental damages across the Great Britain is estimated in over £200m (2014 GBP) each year and could increase for the effect of climate change. Assessing the potential for increased climate-driven soil erosion, due to the several water processes involved (e.g., infiltration excess, return flow, direct precipitation onto saturated soil),is recognizedas a complex task. Climate change can have a positive and direct effect on soil erosionsuch the case of increasing rainfall in amount and intensity, or an indirect effect through the variation of the atmospheric CO2 level, which can improve plant productivityandwater infiltration capacity of soil reducing the likelihood of soil erosion. Changes in vegetation patterns and typologies with a different protection effect can lead also the soil system to dramatic changes in soil erosion rates, potentially amplifying or ameliorating the direct effects of climate change.Climate, vegetation and soil erosion are thus connected and several feedback effects could be accounted in the study of global change. Understanding these interactions may be a primary goal for clarifying the impact of global change on soil erosion and its consequences on related soil functions such as water and organic carbon storage support to vegetation and agricultural production. In this research, focused on three UK catchments (i.e. Conwy, 627 km2, Wales; Ehen, 225 km2, England; and Dee, 2100 km2, Scotland), we simulated soil erosionapplying SRES climatic scenarios(IPCC, 2000) for different CO2 emission levels. We modelled using Pesera "The Pan European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment" (Kirkby et al., 2004), a model for vegetation growing and soil erosion evaluation at regional scale. For each catchment,we realised a sensitivity - analysis - like test investigating different increments in temperature and rainfall, then, we compared the results of the SRES scenarios with the issues of the parametric sensitivity analysis. The

  4. Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its sensitivity to climate variability and change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. R. Vivoni

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic processes in the semiarid regions of the Southwest United States are considered to be highly susceptible to variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics due to the effects of climate change. Relatively little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on the basin hydrologic response, namely streamflow, evapotranspiration and recharge, in the region. In this study, we present the development and application of a continuous, semi-distributed watershed model for climate change studies in semiarid basins of the Southwest US. Our objective is to capture hydrologic processes in large watersheds, while accounting for the spatial and temporal variations of climate forcing and basin properties in a simple fashion. We apply the model to the Río Salado basin in central New Mexico since it exhibits both a winter and summer precipitation regime and has a historical streamflow record for model testing purposes. Subsequently, we use a sequence of climate change scenarios that capture observed trends for winter and summer precipitation, as well as their interaction with higher temperatures, to perform long-term ensemble simulations of the basin response. Results of the modeling exercise indicate that precipitation uncertainty is amplified in the hydrologic response, in particular for processes that depend on a soil saturation threshold. We obtained substantially different hydrologic sensitivities for winter and summer precipitation ensembles, indicating a greater sensitivity to more intense summer storms as compared to more frequent winter events. In addition, the impact of changes in precipitation characteristics overwhelmed the effects of increased temperature in the study basin. Nevertheless, combined trends in precipitation and temperature yield a more sensitive hydrologic response throughout the year.

  5. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor–response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...

  6. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  7. Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species’ responses to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mair, L; Hill, J. K.; Fox, R; Botham , M; Brereton, T; Thomas, C. D.

    2014-01-01

    There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species’ geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming[1,2]. Here, we show for British butterfly species that the relative importance of species’ abundance trends and habitat availability vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the ...

  8. Engaging Storm Spotters and Community College Students in Regional Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.; Buhr, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    Resiliency to natural hazards includes climate literacy. With a record number of billion dollar weather disasters in 2011, each one enhanced by a warmer atmosphere, our nation needs new strategies to respond, mitigate, communicate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. We know that actions we take today matter, but finding ways to mobilize our citizenry remains largely elusive. One way to galvanize a meaningful response to climate change could involve National Weather Service (NWS) storm spotters and Community College students. Dedicated storm spotters represent decades of NOAA NWS efforts to engage and enlist public participation in community safety. Why not leverage this wealth of human capital to cultivate a similar mitigation and stewardship response? The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted a pilot project with NWS storm spotters in the spring of 2011 via a web seminar on climate change, climate mitigation and emerging applications to access weather and climate data with mobile devices. Nineteen storm spotters participated and eleven provided feedback via a follow-up survey. A third of the respondents indicated that they had taken actions to minimize their carbon footprint; a majority (90%) indicated their likelihood to take action in the near future and more than two-thirds said they wanted to learn more about climate mitigation and sustainability. One attendee commented "Thank-you for putting together this web seminar. As a weather spotter, I found the information helpful, even humbling, to know climate change is already happening." CIMSS is also collaborating with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Madison Area Technical College (MATC) on a climate education project where community college students take an on-line climate change course followed by the opportunity to apply for a summer internship. Through this program, two students

  9. Detecting cross-equatorial wind change as a fingerprint of climate response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hai; Xie, Shang-Ping; Tokinaga, Hiroki; Liu, Qinyu; Kosaka, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are a major driver of the twetieth century climate change. In climate models, the aerosol forcing, larger in the Northern than Southern Hemispheres, induces an interhemispheric Hadley circulation. In support of the model result, we detected a robust change in the zonal mean cross-equatorial wind over the past 60 years from ship observations and reanalyses, accompanied by physically consistent changes in atmospheric pressure and marine cloud cover. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the observed change in cross-equatorial wind is a fingerprint of aerosol forcing. This zonal mean mode follows the evolution of global aerosol forcing that is distinct from regional changes in the Atlantic sector. Atmospheric simulations successfully reproduce this interhemispheric mode, indicating the importance of sea surface temperature mediation in response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. As societies awaken to reduce aerosol emissions, a phase reversal of this interhemispheric mode is expected in the 21st century.

  10. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought o...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  11. Plant eco-physiological responses to multiple environmental and climate changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albert, Kristian Rost

    2009-01-01

    interacted. Current UV-B levels decreases productivity in high arctic heath plants, and advanced spring in response to warming may lead to further decrease while other climatic changes as elevated CO2 may negate this. Stimulated productivity of temperate heath plants is likely under the climatic conditions...... additively or synergistically and to establish cause-effect relations between ecosystem processes. This thesis deals with heath plant responses to global change factors (the CLIMAITE project). In a Danish temperate heath ecosystem elevated CO2, experimental summer drought, and passive nighttime warming......The current global changes of temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 and UV-B radiation impact in concert ecosystems and processes in an unpredictable way. Therefore multifactor experimentation is needed to unravel the variability in strength of these drivers, whether the factors act...

  12. Spatial Vulnerability Map and Distributed Response Strategies for Irrigation System Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P. H.; Tung, C. P.; Lien, W. Y.

    2012-04-01

    It is an important issue whether irrigation systems can continuously provide quality service under climate change conditions. The streamflow irrigation system, which delivers water from a river directly, is still widely applied in Taiwan. Due to the impacts of climate change, the amount of available streamflow may decrease during dry season and higher variation of flows can be expected, which influences irrigation systems severely. Furthermore, sub-irrigation areas may have different levels of impacts under climate change. Instead of applying the adaptation strategies to the whole irrigation areas, different adaptive measures should be considered according to the vulnerability of each sub-irrigation area in order to face the impacts of climate change. The purposes of this study include defining the carrying capacity of an irrigation system, developing spatial distributed assessment methods through geographic information system and discussing how to develop adaptation systems for the areas which are more vulnerable. In this study, both agricultural and domestic water supply systems of the Touchien creek watershed are considered in this study. Future water demands of agriculture are estimated under the change of temperature and rainfall, and the amount of water supply to each sub-irrigation area is calculated according to its area and water losses. As for public water uses, the most restrict scenarios are taken in, e.g. the largest impact toward agriculture in the Touchien creek watershed. Then, the vulnerability of sub-irrigation areas is quantified by agricultural shortage index (ASI). ASI represents the percentage of crop yields in that area comparing with its potential crop yields. At last, the spatial distribution of vulnerability is established in order to emphasize the climate change impacts on each sub-irrigation area and to analyze their possible responses. Possible distributed adaptive strategies are proposed in this study too. Keywords: Vulnerability

  13. Exploring the universal ecological responses to climate change in a univoltine butterfly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenberg, Phillip B; Self, Angela; Stewart, John R; Wilson, Rebecca J; Brooks, Stephen J

    2016-05-01

    Animals with distinct life stages are often exposed to different temperatures during each stage. Thus, how temperature affects these life stages should be considered for broadly understanding the ecological consequences of climate warming on such species. For example, temperature variation during particular life stages may affect respective change in body size, phenology and geographic range, which have been identified as the "universal" ecological responses to climate change. While each of these responses has been separately documented across a number of species, it is not known whether each response occurs together within a species. The influence of temperature during particular life stages may help explain each of these ecological responses to climate change. Our goal was to determine if monthly temperature variation during particular life stages of a butterfly species can predict respective changes in body size and phenology. We also refer to the literature to assess if temperature variability during the adult stage influences range change over time. Using historical museum collections paired with monthly temperature records, we show that changes in body size and phenology of the univoltine butterfly, Hesperia comma, are partly dependent upon temporal variation in summer temperatures during key stages of their life cycle. June temperatures, which are likely to affect growth rate of the final larval instar, are important for predicting adult body size (for males only; showing a positive relationship with temperature). July temperatures, which are likely to influence the pupal stage, are important for predicting the timing of adult emergence (showing a negative relationship with temperature). Previous studies show that August temperatures, which act on the adult stage, are linked to range change. Our study highlights the importance of considering temperature variation during each life stage over historic time-scales for understanding intraspecific response to

  14. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  15. The Response of First Flowering Dates to Abrupt Climate Change in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Phenological data on the First Flowering Date(FFD) of woody plants in Beijing from 1963-2007 are analyzed.The correlation between each species' yearly FFD and the mean monthly temperatures for every year over a 45-year period is used to identify the month in which temperature has the most effect on FFD. Through further analysis,the FFDs of 48 woody plant species are shown to have advanced an average of 5.4 days from 1990-2007 compared to 1963-1989.The results indicate that 70.8%of species flowered significantly earlier(7 days on average) during the period 1990-2007,while only one species(2.1%) flowered significantly later.Moreover,the responses of FFD to climate change are shown to be different in two climatic stages, defined by an abrupt climate change point.Thirty-three species which first flower in March and April are sensitive to temperature are examined.The correlation coefficients between FFD and temperature for 20 species during the latter period(1990-2007) are shown to be larger than during the former period(1963- 1989),with a difference of around -0.87 days per 1℃on average.The paper concludes that with the warming of climate,the linear trend of FFD variation,as well as its responsiveness to temperature,became more prominent during 1990-2007 than 1963-1989.The data analyzed in this study present a strong biological indicator of climate change in Beijing,and provide further confirmation of previous results from regional and local studies across the Northern Hemisphere.Phenophase variations indicate that the climate is changing rapidly.

  16. The Response of First Flowering Dates to Abrupt Climate Change in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BAI Jie; GE Quansheng; DAI Junhu

    2011-01-01

    Phenological data on the First Flowering Date (FFD) of woody plants in Beijing from 1963-2007 are analyzed. The correlation between each species' yearly FFD and the mean monthly temperatures for every year over a 45-year period is used to identify the month in which temperature has the most effect on FFD.Through further analysis, the FFDs of 48 woody plant species are shown to have advanced an average of 5.4days from 1990-2007 compared to 1963-1989. The results indicate that 70.8% of species flowered significantly earlier (7 days on average) during the period 1990 2007, while only one species (2.1%) flowered significantly later. Moreover, the responses of FFD to climate change are shown to be different in two climatic stages,defined by an abrupt climate change point. Thirty-three species which first flower in March and April are sensitive to temperature are examined. The correlation coefficients between FFD and temperature for 20species during the latter period (1990-2007) are shown to be larger than during the former period (1963-1989), with a difference of around -0.87 days per 1℃ on average. The paper concludes that with the warming of climate, the linear trend of FFD variation, as well as its responsiveness to temperature, became more prominent during 1990-2007 than 1963-1989. The data analyzed in this study present a strong biological indicator of climate change in Beijing, and provide further confirmation of previous results from regional and local studies across the Northern Hemisphere. Phenophase variations indicate that the climate is changing rapidly.

  17. Simulated annual changes in plant functional types and their responses to climate change on the northern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuo, Lan; Zhang, Yongxin; Piao, Shilong; Gao, Yanhong

    2016-06-01

    Changes in plant functional types (PFTs) have important implications for both climate and water resources. Still, little is known about whether and how PFTs have changed over the past decades on the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) where several of the top largest rivers in the world are originated. Also, the relative importance of atmospheric conditions vs. soil physical conditions in affecting PFTs is unknown on the NTP. In this study, we used the improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to investigate PFT changes through examining the changes in foliar projective coverages (FPCs) during 1957-2009 and their responses to changes in root zone soil temperature, soil moisture, air temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentrations. The results show spatially heterogeneous changes in FPCs across the NTP during 1957-2009, with 34 % (13 %) of the region showing increasing (decreasing) trends. Dominant drivers responsible for the observed FPC changes vary with regions and vegetation types, but overall, precipitation is the major factor in determining FPC changes on the NTP with positive impacts. Soil temperature increase exhibits small but negative impacts on FPCs. Different responses of individual FPCs to regionally varying climate change result in spatially heterogeneous patterns of vegetation changes on the NTP. The implication of the study is that fresh water resources in one of the world's largest and most important headwater basins and the onset and intensity of Asian monsoon circulations could be affected because of the changes in FPCs on the NTP.

  18. Modeling the Hydrological Response to Climate Change in an Arid Inland River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, C.; Zhang, A.; Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Liu, J.

    2014-12-01

    Located deep in the hinterlands of Eurasia, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) is an arid inland river basin in northwest China where the hydrologic regime responds sensitively to climate change. From the headwater region to terminal lakes, the HRB can be roughly divided into three sections, i.e., the upstream Qilian Mountains, the midstream oases and the downstream Gobi Desert. Runoff generated in the upstream mountainous terrains, dominated by climate variations, is the critical water resource for the whole river basin. With increasing intensification of climate change, there is an urgent need to understand future changes of water resources and water-related disasters to support regional water management. This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic processes in the upper HRB for the future period of 2021~2150. Downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from six General Circulation Models under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are adopted to drive a commonly used flow model, Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for the upper HRB. The impacts of climate change on the total runoff and its components are quantified based on the future climate scenario analysis and the results of SWAT simulation. To understand how the climate change affects the availability and distribution of water resources in the middle and lower HRB where irrigated agriculture and ecosystem conservation compete for water resources, runoffs from the upper HRB are used as the boundary conditions for an integrated groundwater-surface water model based on the USGS GSFLOW for the middle and lower HRB. The integrated model assimilated multiple types of data including groundwater levels at monitoring wells, streamflow at gaging stations, and evapotranspiration (ET) derived from remote sensing data. The calibrated model was able to adequately reproduce the observed hydrological variables. The integrated model was then used to assess the potential response of the

  19. Imbedding dynamic responses with imperfect information into static portraits of the regional impact of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yohe, G.W. (Wesleyan Univ., Middletown, CT (USA))

    1990-11-01

    It is becoming increasingly clear, at least on a theoretical level, that modelers of the potential impacts of climate change must impose that change upon the world as it will be configured sometime in the future rather than confine their attention to considerations of what would happen to the world as it looks now. Initial baselines which focus on current circumstances are certainly worthwhile points of departure in any study, of course, but the truth is that social, economic, and political systems will evolve as the future unfolds; and careful analysis of that evolution across a globe experiencing changes in its climate must be undertaken, as well. In the vernacular of the analysts' workroom, while it may be interesting to try to see what would happen to dumb farmers'' who continue to do things as they always have regardless of what happens, it is critically important to evaluate the need for any sort of policy response to climate change in a world of smart farmers'' who will have observed the ramifications of climate change and responded in their own best interest. 9 refs., 2 figs.

  20. Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

    OpenAIRE

    Runhaar, H.A.C.; Uittenbroek, C.J.; Rijswick, van, P.C.J.; Mees, H.L.P.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Gilissen, H.K.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate change. In this paper, we present, and preliminarily test, a method for the ex-ante assessment of the division of public and private responsibilities for climate adaptation in terms of comprehensiveness...

  1. Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berner, Logan T; Beck, Pieter S A; Bunn, Andrew G; Goetz, Scott J

    2013-11-01

    Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth-climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km(2) ) in northeastern Siberia using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring-width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (Ts ) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMIgy ). Mean summer NDVI (NDVIs ) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub-dominated areas. NDVIs positively correlated (P watershed (r = 0.52 ± 0.09, mean ± SD), principally in cold areas, and with CMIgy across 9% of the watershed (r = 0.45 ± 0.06), largely in warm areas. Larch ring-width measurements from nine sites revealed that year-to-year (i.e., high-frequency) variation in growth positively correlated (P  0.05), which significantly correlated with NDVIs (r = 0.44, P < 0.05, 1982-2007). Both satellite and tree-ring analyses indicated that plant growth was constrained by both low temperatures and limited moisture availability and, furthermore, that warming enhanced growth. Impacts of future climatic change on forests near treeline in Arctic Russia will likely be influenced by shifts in both temperature and moisture, which implies that projections of future forest distribution and productivity in this area should take into account the interactions of energy and moisture limitations. PMID:23813896

  2. Hydrologic response to forest cover changes following a Mountain Pine Beetle outbreak in the context of a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Dan; Jost, Georg; Nelson, Harry; Smith, Russell

    2013-04-01

    Over the last 15 years, there has been extensive mortality of pine forests in western North America associated with an outbreak of Mountain Pine Beetle, often followed by salvage logging. The objective of this study was to quantify the separate and combined effects of forest recovery and climate change over the 21st century on catchment hydrology in the San Jose watershed, located in the semi-arid Interior Plateau of British Columbia. Forest cover changes were simulated using a dynamic spatial model that uses a decentralized planning approach. We implemented management strategies representing current timber management objectives around achieving targeted harvest levels and incorporating existing management constraints under two different scenarios, one with no climate change and one under climate change, using climate-adjusted growth and yield curves. In addition, higher rates of fire disturbance were modelled under climate change. Under climate change, while productivity improves for some species (mainly Douglas-fir on better quality sites), on drier and poorer quality sites most species, especially Lodgepole Pine, become significantly less productive, and stocking is reduced to the point that those sites transition into grasslands. The combined effect of initial age classes (where the forest has been severely impacted by MPB), increased fire, and reduced stocking results in a greater proportion of the forest in younger age classes compared to a "Business As Usual" scenario with no climate change. The hydrologic responses to changes in vegetation cover and climate were evaluated with the flexible Hydrology Emulator and Modelling Platform (HEMP) developed at the University of British Columbia. HEMP allows a flexible discretization of the landscape. Water is moved vertically within landscape units by processes such as precipitation, canopy interception and soil infiltration, and routed laterally between units as a function of local soil and groundwater storage. The

  3. Environmental responses of phenology and allergenic pollen to recent climate change and urbanisation

    OpenAIRE

    Jochner, Susanne

    2012-01-01

    This PhD thesis demonstrated new techniques in phenological and pollen associated allergological research. Since cities provide an excellent means of assessing climate change impacts, we were able to simulate future plant development. Besides temperature, we demonstrated the importance of plant nutritional status on phenology. Tropical trees were found to be responsive to humidity. In addition, urbanisation has not only an impact on phenology, but also on the allergenicity of birch pollen.

  4. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  5. Climate change: The challenges for public health preparedness and response- An Indian case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patil Rajan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Extremes weather changes surpassing their usual statistical ranges and tumbling records in India could be an early warning bell of global warming. Extreme weather events like the recent record setting in western Indian city of Mumbai or all time high fatalities due to the heat wave in southern Indian states or increasing vulnerability of easten Indian states to flood could all be a manifestation of climate change in the Asian subcontinent. While the skeptics may be inclined to dismiss these events as simple local aberrations, when viewed in an epidemiological paradigm in terms of person, time and space couple with frequency, intensity and fatalities, it could well be an early manifestation of climate change. Global warming poses serious challenge to the health sector and hence warrants emergency health preparedness and response. Climate-sensitive diseases are among the largest global killers, hence major brunt of global climate change in terms of adverse health impact will be mostly borne by poor and developing countries in Asia, given the levels of poverty, nutional levels and poor public health infrastructure.

  6. Persistence and diversification of the Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis (Family Soricidae), in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hope, Andrew G; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, Vadim B; Goropashnaya, Anna V; Talbot, Sandra L; Cook, Joseph A

    2011-10-01

    Environmental processes govern demography, species movements, community turnover and diversification and yet in many respects these dynamics are still poorly understood at high latitudes. We investigate the combined effects of climate change and geography through time for a widespread Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis. We include a comprehensive suite of closely related outgroup taxa and three independent loci to explore phylogeographic structure and historical demography. We then explore the implications of these findings for other members of boreal communities. The tundra shrew and its sister species, the Tien Shan shrew (Sorex asper), exhibit strong geographic population structure across Siberia and into Beringia illustrating local centres of endemism that correspond to Late Pleistocene refugia. Ecological niche predictions for both current and historical distributions indicate a model of persistence through time despite dramatic climate change. Species tree estimation under a coalescent process suggests that isolation between populations has been maintained across timeframes deeper than the periodicity of Pleistocene glacial cycling. That some species such as the tundra shrew have a history of persistence largely independent of changing climate, whereas other boreal species shifted their ranges in response to climate change, highlights the dynamic processes of community assembly at high latitudes. PMID:21919986

  7. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. PMID:26630544

  8. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adloff, Fanny; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Jordà, Gabriel; Aznar, Roland; Déqué, Michel; Herrmann, Marine; Marcos, Marta; Dubois, Clotilde; Padorno, Elena; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique; Gomis, Damià

    2015-11-01

    The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air-sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961-2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001-2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air-sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070-2099 period compared to 1961-1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in

  9. Relating climate change signals and physiographic catchment properties to clustered hydrological response types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to reduce a comprehensive set of 186 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland to fewer response types to climate change and name sensitive regions as well as catchment characteristics that govern hydrological change. We classified the hydrological responses of our study catchments through an agglomerative-hierarchical cluster analysis, and we related the dominant explanatory variables, i.e. the determining catchment properties and climate change signals, to the catchments' hydrological responses by means of redundancy analysis. All clusters except for one exhibit clearly decreasing summer runoff and increasing winter runoff. This seasonal shift was observed for the near future period (2025–2046 but is particularly obvious in the far future period (2074–2095. Within a certain elevation range (between 1000 and 2500 m a.s.l., the hydrological change is basically a function of elevation because the latter governs the dominant hydro-climatological processes associated with temperature, e.g. the ratio of liquid to solid precipitation and snow melt processes. For catchments below the stated range, hydrological change is mainly a function of precipitation change, which is not as pronounced as the temperature signal is. Future impact studies in Switzerland can be conducted on a reduced sample of catchments representing the sensitive regions or covering a range of altitudes.

  10. Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure. PMID:20403831

  11. The impact of climate change on cultural heritage: evidence and response

    OpenAIRE

    Cassar, M.; Pender, R.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the first broadbased research on the impact of climate change on historic buildings, buried archaeology, parks and gardens. Research coincided with the publication of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios and other studies assessing regional climate change and the impact on nature conservation and gardens. The methodology consisted of an assessment of climate change and adaptation literature, a questionnaire, site visits, regional and policy workshops. It conflated evidence...

  12. Changing climate response in near-treeline bristlecone pine with elevation and aspect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the White Mountains of California, eight bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) tree-ring width chronologies were developed from trees at upper treeline and just below upper treeline along North- and South-facing elevational transects from treeline to ∼90 m below. There is evidence for a climate-response threshold between approximately 60–80 vertical m below treeline, above which trees have shown a positive growth-response to temperature and below which they do not. Chronologies from 80 m or more below treeline show a change in climate response and do not correlate strongly with temperature-sensitive chronologies developed from trees growing at upper treeline. Rather, they more closely resemble lower elevation precipitation-sensitive chronologies. At the highest sites, trees on South-facing slopes grow faster than trees on North-facing slopes. High growth rates in the treeline South-facing trees have declined since the mid-1990s. This suggests the possibility that the climate-response of the highest South-facing trees may have changed and that temperature may no longer be the main limiting factor for growth on the South aspect. These results indicate that increasing warmth may lead to a divergence between tree growth and temperature at previously temperature-limited sites. (letter)

  13. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

    2014-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  14. NDVI-based vegetation responses to climate change in an arid area of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yufeng; Yang, Jing; Chen, Yaning

    2015-07-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and the change of climate variables will eventually have a great impact on vegetation cover and agricultural practices, especially in the arid area Xinjiang in China, whose agriculture and ecosystems are heavily vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to study the vegetation growth and its response to climate change in Xinjiang. Firstly, two NDVI datasets (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) were merged through a pixel-wise regression analysis to obtain a long time series of NDVI data, and then, relationships between yearly NDVI and yearly climate variables, and monthly NDVI and monthly climate variables were extensively investigated for grassland and cropland in northern and southern Xinjiang, respectively. Results show the following: (1) there was an increasing trend in NDVI for both grassland and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang over the past decades and trends were significant except that for grassland in northern Xinjiang; (2) precipitation and evaporation were more important than temperature for grassland in northern Xinjiang, while precipitation and temperature were more important than evaporation for grassland in southern Xinjiang and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang; (3) NDVI was highly correlated with accumulated monthly precipitation instead of monthly precipitation, and there was a lagged effect of precipitation, temperature, and evaporation on NDVI change. However, lagged effects were only significant in specific months. The results could be helpful to agricultural practices; e.g., based on lagged effect of precipitation, irrigation in July is very important for crop growth.

  15. The response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. N. Racherla

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the response of surface ozone (O3 to future climate change in the eastern United States by performing simulations corresponding to present (1990s and future (2050s climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for the 2050s decade. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO2/CH4 mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while climate-sensitive emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. The severity and frequency of O3 episodes in the eastern U.S. increased due to future climate change, primarily as a result of increased O3 chemical production. The 95th percentile O3 mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv range; the US EPA's current 8-h ozone primary standard is 80 ppbv. The increased O3 chemical production is due to increases in: 1 natural isoprene emissions; 2 hydroperoxy radical concentrations resulting from increased water vapor concentrations; and, 3 NOx concentrations resulting from reduced PAN. The most substantial and statistically significant (p<0.05 increases in episode frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic U.S., largely as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. These results suggest a lengthening of the O3 season over the eastern U.S. in a future climate to include late spring and early fall months. Increased chemical production and shorter average lifetime are two consistent features of the seasonal response of surface O3, with increased dry deposition loss rates contributing most to the reduced lifetime in all seasons except summer. Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of O3

  16. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  17. Ecological response to the climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN; Xi; LUO; Geping; XIA; Jun; ZHOU; Kefa; LOU; Shaoping

    2005-01-01

    The Tianshan Mountains is a high and huge mountain body lying across the central part of Xinjiang, China, and is also the main area where the runoff forms in Xinjiang. In this paper, a set of RS-based study methods is put forward for deriving the information about the natural change of the ecology in arid areas, and the relationship between the climate change trend and the corresponding ecological response on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is analyzed from the scales of the land cover ecosystems and landscapes based on the observed data of climate, hydrology, modern glaciers and lakes on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years and the satellite RS data since recent 10 years by using the RS and GIS technologies. The results are as follows: (1) The overall trend of climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is that both air temperature and precipitation are increased, especially the increase amplitudes of air temperature, precipitation and annual runoff volume are high since the decade of the 1990s; (2) the integrated indexes of the vegetation in all the geographical divisions on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are obviously increased since recent 10 years, especially in the artificial oases and the foothill belts, such a change trend is advantageous for improving the vegetation ecology; and (3) the vegetation ecology in the arid areas is extremely sensitive to the climate change, the vegetation coverage and the biomass on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are continuously increased because of the climate change since recent 10 years, their increase amplitudes in the plains and during the late stage are obviously higher than that in the mountainous regions and during the early stage.

  18. Climate change and apple farming in Indian Himalayas: a study of local perceptions and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basannagari, Basavaraj; Kala, Chandra Prakash

    2013-01-01

    Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (3000 m). At all elevation range the majority of farmers reported that there was increase in atmospheric temperature, and hence at low hills 72% farmers believed that this increase in temperature was responsible for decline in fruit size and so that the quality. Thirty five percent farmers at high hills and 30% at mid hills perceived frost as a major cause for damaging apple farming whereas at low hills 24% farmers perceived hailstorm as the major deterrent for apple farming. The majority of farmers, along the altitude (92% at high hills, 79% at mid hills and 83% at low hills), reported decrease in snowfall. The majority of farmers at low altitude and mid altitude reported decline in apple farming whereas 71% farmers at high hill areas refused decline in apple farming. About 73-83% farmers admitted delay in apple's harvesting period. At mid hills apple scab and at low hills pest attack on apple crops are considered as the indicators of climate change. The change in land use practices was attributed to climate change and in many areas the land under apple farming was replaced for production of coarse grains, seasonal vegetables and other horticulture species. Scientific investigation claiming changes in Indian Himalayan climate corroborates perceptions of farmers, as examined during the present study. PMID:24205051

  19. Population differentiation in tree-ring growth response of white fir (Abies concolor) to climate: Implications for predicting forest responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, D.B.

    1993-10-01

    Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled C0{sub 2} climates was estimated.

  20. Insurance Companies’ Responses to Climate Change: Adaptation, Dynamic Capabilities and Competitive Advantage

    OpenAIRE

    Kristin Stechemesser; Jan Endrikat; Nico Grasshoff; Edeltraud Guenther

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on the dynamic capability view, we analyse how insurers adapt to climate change impacts and how adaptation relates to corporate financial performance. Based on a comprehensive literature review, we deduce seven categories of adaptation measures associated with three dynamic capability dimensions of climate change adaptation (i.e. climate knowledge absorption, climate-related operational flexibility and strategic climate integration). Using this framework, we conduct a content analysis...

  1. Towards strategic stakeholder management? Integrating perspectives on sustainability challenges such as corporate responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2007-07-01

    The strategic management of corporate sustainability tends to be approached from one theoretical perspective in academic research and publications in mainstream journals simultaneously. In corporate practice, however, a sustainability issue has different dimensions that cannot be captured if only one such lens is taken. The purpose of this article is to develop a more integrated perspective, embedded in a stakeholder view. This paper uses climate change as an example to illustrate how institutional, resource-based, supply chain and stakeholder views are all important to characterize and understand corporate strategic responses to one issue. This is subsequently linked to the climate strategies and related capabilities of companies, reckoning with societal and competitive contexts. Findings - What a corporate climate strategy looks like depends on the type of stakeholders that a company manages more proactively, which is in turn determined by the extent to which these stakeholders control critical resources. While empirical literature usually adopts a particular theoretical perspective, this article has attempted to develop a more integrative approach on corporate responses to climate change.

  2. Towards strategic stakeholder management? Integrating perspectives on sustainability challenges such as corporate responses to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The strategic management of corporate sustainability tends to be approached from one theoretical perspective in academic research and publications in mainstream journals simultaneously. In corporate practice, however, a sustainability issue has different dimensions that cannot be captured if only one such lens is taken. The purpose of this article is to develop a more integrated perspective, embedded in a stakeholder view. This paper uses climate change as an example to illustrate how institutional, resource-based, supply chain and stakeholder views are all important to characterize and understand corporate strategic responses to one issue. This is subsequently linked to the climate strategies and related capabilities of companies, reckoning with societal and competitive contexts. Findings - What a corporate climate strategy looks like depends on the type of stakeholders that a company manages more proactively, which is in turn determined by the extent to which these stakeholders control critical resources. While empirical literature usually adopts a particular theoretical perspective, this article has attempted to develop a more integrative approach on corporate responses to climate change

  3. Potential impact of climate-related changes is buffered by differential responses to recruitment and interactions

    KAUST Repository

    Menge, Bruce A.

    2011-08-01

    Detection of ecosystem responsiveness to climatic perturbations can provide insight into climate change consequences. Recent analyses linking phytoplankton abundance and mussel recruitment to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) revealed a paradox. Despite large increases in mussel recruitment beginning in 2000, adult mussel responses were idiosyncratic by site and intertidal zone, with no response at one long-term site, and increases in the low zone (1.5% per year) and decreases in the mid zone (1.3% per year) at the other. What are the mechanisms underlying these differential changes? Species interactions such as facilitation by barnacles and predation are potential determinants of successful mussel colonization. To evaluate these effects, we analyzed patterns of barnacle recruitment, determined if predation rate covaried with the increase in mussel recruitment, and tested facilitation interactions in a field experiment. Neither magnitude nor season of barnacle recruitment changed meaningfully with site or zone from the 1990s to the 2000s. In contrast to the relationship between NPGO and local-scale mussel recruitment, relationships between local-scale patterns of barnacle recruitment and climate indices were weak. Despite differences in rates of prey recruitment and abundance of sea stars in 1990–1991, 1999–2000, and 2007–2008, predation rates were nearly identical in experiments before, during, and after 1999–2000. The facilitation experiment showed that mussels M. trossulus only became abundant when barnacle recruitment was allowed, when abundance of barnacles reached high abundance of ∼50% cover, and when mussel recruitment was sufficiently high. Thus, in the low zone minimal changes in mussel abundance despite sharply increased recruitment rates are consistent with the hypothesis that change in adult mussel cover was buffered by the relative insensitivity of barnacle recruitment to climatic fluctuations, and a resultant lack of change in

  4. Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groom, Scott V C; Stevens, Mark I; Schwarz, Michael P

    2014-06-22

    The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops. PMID:24807250

  5. Size matters: plasticity in metabolic scaling shows body-size may modulate responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Nicholas; Sigwart, Julia D

    2014-08-01

    Variability in metabolic scaling in animals, the relationship between metabolic rate ( R: ) and body mass ( M: ), has been a source of debate and controversy for decades. R: is proportional to MB: , the precise value of B: much debated, but historically considered equal in all organisms. Recent metabolic theory, however, predicts B: to vary among species with ecology and metabolic level, and may also vary within species under different abiotic conditions. Under climate change, most species will experience increased temperatures, and marine organisms will experience the additional stressor of decreased seawater pH ('ocean acidification'). Responses to these environmental changes are modulated by myriad species-specific factors. Body-size is a fundamental biological parameter, but its modulating role is relatively unexplored. Here, we show that changes to metabolic scaling reveal asymmetric responses to stressors across body-size ranges; B: is systematically decreased under increasing temperature in three grazing molluscs, indicating smaller individuals were more responsive to warming. Larger individuals were, however, more responsive to reduced seawater pH in low temperatures. These alterations to the allometry of metabolism highlight abiotic control of metabolic scaling, and indicate that responses to climate warming and ocean acidification may be modulated by body-size. PMID:25122741

  6. Lay rationalities of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Alves, Fátima; Caeiro, Sandra; Azeiteiro, Ulisses

    2014-01-01

    In this special issue we were also interested in revealing the level of concepts and the level of social action, trying to contribute to the answer of questions like: How local populations explain, interpret and deal with climate change? What are the individual and collective actions in response to climate change? How do populations deal with Climate Change mitigation (risk perception and risk-mitigating)? What is the available traditional knowledge about Climate Change? How does the cu...

  7. Addressing Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Peter S. Heller

    2007-01-01

    Global climate change has moved high on the agenda of key policy makers in many industrial countries. As a “global public good,†a coordinated global response in terms of efforts at mitigation will be critically necessary. Equally, many countries will face serious economic harm in the absence of adaptation efforts. As one of the key global institutions with responsibility for global economic stability and growth, this paper argues that climate change should be on the economic surveillance ...

  8. Possible responses of northern peatlands to climate change in the zone of discontinuous permafrost, Manitoba, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bubier, J.L. [New Hampshire Univ., Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space; Moore, T.R. [McGill Univ., Montreal (Canada). Geography Dept.

    1996-12-31

    More than half of the world`s peatlands occur in the boreal zone (45 - 60 deg C N. lat), a region which global climate models predict will experience large changes in temperature and precipitation with increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The northern part of the boreal zone is characterised by discontinuous permafrost, an area that is particularly sensitive to climate change with the possible degradation and thawing of frozen peat. Peatlands are large sources of atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}), an important greenhouse gas. Yet few measurements of methane have been conducted in discontinuous permafrost environments. As part of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS), CH{sub 4} flux was measured in a diverse peatland complex (bogs, fens, peat plateaus, and collapse scars), representing the complete range of temperature, moisture, and plant community gradients found in northern peatlands. The measurement period May to September 1994 was one of the warmest and driest seasons on record, which provided an opportunity to observe the short-term responses of different parts of the peatland ecosystem to a warmer and drier climate as an analog to predicted climate change in the region. (5 refs.)

  9. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woillez, M.-N.; Kageyama, M.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Krinner, G.

    2013-03-01

    The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (HE) events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  10. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-N. Woillez

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  11. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  12. On the brink of change: plant responses to climate on the Colorado Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Schelz, Charles D.; Moran, Mary; Carolin, Tara W.

    2011-01-01

    The intensification of aridity due to anthropogenic climate change in the southwestern U.S. is likely to have a large impact on the growth and survival of plant species that may already be vulnerable to water stress. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is essential to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with past climate conditions. Here we show how the plant species and functional types across a wide range of environmental conditions in Colorado Plateau national parks have changed with climate variability over the last twenty years. During this time, regional mean annual temperature increased by 0.18°C per year from 1989–1995, 0.06°C per year from 1995–2003, declined by 0.14°C from 2003–2008, and there was high interannual variability in precipitation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling of plant species at long-term monitoring sites indicated five distinct plant communities. In many of the communities, canopy cover of perennial plants was sensitive to mean annual temperature occurring in the previous year, whereas canopy cover of annual plants responded to cool season precipitation. In the perennial grasslands, there was an overall decline of C3 perennial grasses, no change of C4 perennial grasses, and an increase of shrubs with increasing temperature. In the shrublands, shrubs generally showed no change or slightly increased with increasing temperature. However, certain shrub species declined where soil and physical characteristics of a site limited water availability. In the higher elevation woodlands, Juniperus osteosperma and shrub canopy cover increased with increasing temperature, while Pinus edulis at the highest elevation sites was unresponsive to interannual temperature variability. These results from well-protected national parks highlight the importance of temperature to plant responses in a water-limited region and suggest that projected increases in aridity are likely to promote

  13. Assessing Land Management Changes and Population Dynamics in Central Burkina Faso in Response to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabore Bontogho, P. E.; Boubacar, I.; Afouda, A.; Joerg, H.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing landscape and population's dynamics at watershed level contribute to address anthropogenic aspect of climate change issue owing to the close link between LULC and climate changes. The objective of this study is to explore the dependencies of population to land management changes in Massili basin (2612 km²) located in central Burkina Faso. A set of three satellite scenes was acquired for the years 1990 (Landsat 7 ETM), 2002 (Landsat 7 ETM+) and 2013 (Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS) from the Global Land Cover Facility's (GLCF) website. Census data were provided by the National institute of statistics and demographic (INSD). The satellites images were classified using object-oriented classification method which was supported by historic maps and field data. Those were collected in order to allow for class definition, verification and accuracy assessments. Based on the developed land use maps, change analysis was carried out using post classification comparison in GIS. Finally, derived land use changes were compared with census data in order to explore links between population dynamics and the land use changes. It was found in 1990 that Massili watershed LULC was dominated by Tree/shrub savannah (69%, 1802.28 km2 ), Farm/Fallow was representing 22%, Gallery forest (4%), Settlement (3%), Barre soil (1%), Water bodies (1%). In 2002, the major landscape was Farm (54%). Tree/Shrub savannas were reduced to 36% while the Gallery Forest was decreased to1% of the basin area. The situation has also slightly changed in 2013 with an increase of the area devoted to farm/fallow and settlement at a rate of 3% and Gallery forest has increased to 4%. The changes in land use are in agreement with a notable increase in population. The analysis of census data showed that the number of inhabitants increased from 338 inhabitants per km2 in 1990 to 1150 inhabitants per km2 in 2013. As shown by statistical analysis (Kendall correlation tau=0.9), there is a close relation between both dynamics.

  14. Differential Responses of Neotropical Mountain Forests to Climate Change during the Last Millenium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa-Rangel, B. L.; Olvera Vargas, M.

    2013-05-01

    The long-term perspective in the conservation of mountain ecosystems using palaeoecological and paleoclimatological techniques are providing with crucial information for the understanding of the temporal range and variability of ecological pattern and processes. This perception is contributing with means to anticipate future conditions of these ecosystems, especially their response to climate change. Neotropical mountain forests, created by a particular geological and climatic history in the Americas, represent one of the most distinctive ecosystems in the tropics which are constantly subject to disturbances included climate change. Mexico due to its geographical location between the convergence of temperate and tropical elements, its diverse physiography and climatic heterogeneity, contains neotropical ecosystems with high biodiversity and endemicity whose structure and taxonomical composition have changed along centurial to millennial scales. Different neotropical forests expand along the mountain chains of Mexico with particular responses along spatial and temporal scales. Therefore in order to capture these scales at fine resolution, sedimentary sequences from forest hollows were retrieved from three forest at different altitudes within 10 km; Pine forest (PF), Transitional forest (TF) and Cloud forest (CF). Ordination techniques were used to relate changes in vegetation with the environment every ~60 years. The three forests experience the effect of the dry stage ~AD 800-1200 related to the Medieval Warm Period reported for several regions of the world. CF contracted, PF expanded while the TF evolved from CF to a community dominated by dry-resistant epiphytes. Dry periods in PF and TF overlapped with the increase in fire occurrences while a dissimilar pattern took place in CF. Maize, Asteraceae and Poaceae were higher during dry intervals while epiphytes decreased. A humid period ~1200-1450 AD was associated with an expansion and a high taxa turnover in CF

  15. Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellermann, Jherime L.; Van Riper, Charles, III

    2015-01-01

    Migratory birds exploit seasonal variation in resources across latitudes, timing migration to coincide with the phenology of food at stopover sites. Differential responses to climate in phenology across trophic levels can result in phenological mismatch; however, detecting mismatch is sensitive to methodology. We examined patterns of migrant abundance and tree flowering, phenological mismatch, and the influence of climate during spring migration from 2009 to 2011 across five habitat types of the Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona, USA. We used two metrics to assess phenological mismatch: synchrony and overlap. We also examined whether phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in mean event date of phenophases. Migrant abundance and tree flowering generally increased with minimum spring temperature but depended on annual climate by habitat interactions. Migrant abundance was lowest and flowering was highest under cold, snowy conditions in high elevation montane conifer habitat while bird abundance was greatest and flowering was lowest in low elevation riparian habitat under the driest conditions. Phenological synchrony and overlap were unique and complementary metrics and should both be used when assessing mismatch. Overlap declined due to asynchronous phenologies but also due to reduced migrant abundance or flowering when synchrony was actually maintained. Overlap declined with increasing difference in event date and this trend was strongest in riparian areas. Montane habitat specialists may be at greatest risk of mismatch while riparian habitat could provide refugia during dry years for phenotypically plastic species. Interannual climate patterns that we observed match climate change projections for the arid southwest, altering stopover habitat condition.

  16. Plant Functional Variability in Response to Late-Quaternary Climate Change Recorded in Ancient Packrat Middens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmgren, C. A.; Potts, D. L.

    2006-12-01

    Responses of plant functional traits to environmental variability are of enduring interest because they constrain organism performance and ecosystem function. However, most inferences regarding plant functional trait response to climatic variability have been limited to the modern period. To better understand plant functional response to long-term climate variability and how adjustments in leaf morphology may contribute to patterns of species establishment, persistence, or extirpation, we measured specific leaf area (SLA) from macrofossils preserved in ancient packrat middens collected along the Arizona/New Mexico border, USA. Our record spanned more than 32,000 years and included six woodland and Chihuahuan Desert species: Berberis cf. haematocarpa, Juniperus cf. coahuilensis, Juniperus osteosperma, Larrea tridentata, Prosopis glandulosa and Parthenium incanum. We predicted that regional climatic warming and drying since the late Pleistocene would result in intraspecific decreases in SLA. As predicted, SLA was positively correlated with midden age for three of the six species (L. tridentata, J. osteosperma, B. cf. haematocarpa). SLA was also negatively correlated with December (L. tridentata, J. cf. coahuilensis) or June (B. cf. haematocarpa, J. osteosperma) insolation. A unique record of vegetation community dynamics, plant macrofossils preserved in packrat middens also represent a rich and largely untapped source of information on long-term trends in species functional response to environmental change.

  17. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  18. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  19. Alluvial fan response to climatic change: Insights from numerical modeling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, J. D.

    2009-12-01

    Alluvial fans in the western U.S. exhibit a regionally correlative sequence of Plio-Quaternary deposits. Cosmogenic and U-series dating has greatly improved the age control on these deposits and their associated terraces and generally strengthened the case for aggradation during humid-to-arid transitions. Still, the linkages between climate change, upland basin response, and alluvial fan response are not well constrained. Fans may fill and cut as a result of autogenetic processes/internal adjustments, changes in regional temperature (which controls snowmelt-induced flooding), changes in the frequency-size distribution of rainfall events, and/or changes in upslope vegetation. Here I describe the results of a numerical modeling study designed to better constrain the relationships between different end-member forcing mechanisms and the geologic record of alluvial fan deposits and terraces. The model solves the evolution of the fan topography using Exner's equation (conservation of mass) coupled with a nonlinear, threshold-controlled transport relation for sand and gravel. Bank retreat is modeled using an advection equation with a rate proportional to bank shear stress. I begin by considering the building of a fan under conditions of constant water and sediment supply. This simple system exhibits all of the complexity of fans developed under experimental conditions, and it provides insights into the mechanisms that control avulsions and it provides a baseline estimate for the within-fan relief that can result from autogenetic processes. Relationships between the magnitude and period of variations in the sediment-to-water ratio and the geomorphic response of fans are then discussed. I also consider the response of a coupled drainage basin-fan system to changes in climate, including the hydrologic and vegetation response of upland hillslopes. Fans can aggrade or incise in response to the same climatic event depending on the relief of the upstream drainage basin, which

  20. Synthesizing greenhouse gas fluxes across nine European peatlands and shrublands - responses to climatic and environmental changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carter, Mette Sustmann; Klaus, Larsen; Emmett, B;

    2012-01-01

    , and in annual precipitation from 300 to 1300mmyr-1. The effects of climate change, including temperature increase and prolonged drought, were tested at five shrubland sites. At one peatland site, the long-term (>30 yr) effect of drainage was assessed, while increased nitrogen deposition was...... at a hydric shrubland where drought tended to increase soil respiration. In terms of fractional importance of each greenhouse gas to the total numerical global warming response, the change in CO2 efflux dominated the response in all treatments (ranging 71–96 %), except for NO- 3 addition where 89......% was due to change in CH4 emissions. Thus, in European peatlands and shrublands the effect on global warming induced by the investigated anthropogenic disturbances will be dominated by variations in soil CO2 fluxes....

  1. Predictors of technical adoption and behavioural change to transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy conservation can be achieved through the adoption of technical measures or the changing of one's behaviour. A survey of 201 Malaysian public personnel was conducted to examine the predictors of these two types of transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change. The results indicated that there were significant differences in the relative acceptability of both behavioural measures with respect to gender, level of education, income, knowledge of climate change and attitude. Gender, knowledge of causes of climate change and personal norm were predictors for the acceptability of technical measures, while perceived efficacy and personal norm were the factors that influenced the acceptability of behavioural measures. The results also indicated that distinctions ought to be made between technology adoption and behaviour modifications that require lifestyle changes when assessing pro-environmental intent behaviour. The implications for theory and practice are discussed. - Highlights: • A survey was conducted to examine acceptability of transport energy-saving measures. • Gender, knowledge of causes, efficacy and personal norm are predictors of technical measures. • Personal norm and perceived efficacy influenced acceptability of behavioural change. • Both measures are strongly correlated to psychological factors than to socio-demographic variables

  2. Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C3 temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO2 than temperate C4 grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C4 Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO2 is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO2 GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences

  3. Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughenour, M.B.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Pielke, R.A.; Eastman, J.

    1993-10-01

    The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C{sub 3} temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO{sub 2} than temperate C{sub 4} grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C{sub 4} Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO{sub 2} is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO{sub 2} GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences.

  4. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adelie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  5. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  6. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  7. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, C. T.; Matthews, H. D.

    2016-03-01

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions.

  8. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

  9. Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Basics Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions This page ... All Responses Is there a scientific consensus on climate change? The major scientific agencies of the United ...

  10. Functional trade-offs in succulent stems predict responses to climate change in columnar cacti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, David G; Hultine, Kevin R; Dettman, David L

    2014-07-01

    Columnar cacti occur naturally in many habitats and environments in the Americas but are conspicuously dominant in very dry desert regions. These majestic plants are widely regarded for their cultural, economic, and ecological value and, in many ecosystems, support highly diverse communities of pollinators, seed dispersers, and frugivores. Massive amounts of water and other resources stored in the succulent photosynthetic stems of these species confer a remarkable ability to grow and reproduce during intensely hot and dry periods. Yet many columnar cacti are potentially under severe threat from environmental global changes, including climate change and loss of habitat. Stems in columnar cacti and other cylindrical-stemmed cacti are morphologically diverse; stem volume-to-surface area ratio (V:S) across these taxa varies by almost two orders of magnitude. Intrinsic functional trade-offs are examined here across a broad range of V:S in species of columnar cacti. It is proposed that variation in photosynthetic gas exchange, growth, and response to stress is highly constrained by stem V:S, establishing a mechanistic framework for understanding the sensitivity of columnar cacti to climate change and drought. Specifically, species that develop stems with low V:S, and thus have little storage capacity, are expected to express high mass specific photosynthesis and growth rates under favourable conditions compared with species with high V:S. But the trade-off of having little storage capacity is that low V:S species are likely to be less tolerant of intense or long-duration drought compared with high V:S species. The application of stable isotope measurements of cactus spines as recorders of growth, water relations, and metabolic responses to the environment across species of columnar cacti that vary in V:S is also reviewed. Taken together, our approach provides a coherent theory and required set of observations needed for predicting the responses of columnar cacti to

  11. Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2010-01-01

    The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

  12. Response of plants and ecosystems to CO{sub 2} and climate change. Final technical report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.

    1993-12-31

    In recognition of the important role of vegetation in the bio-geosphere carbon cycle, the Carbon Dioxide Research Program of the US Department of Energy established the research program: Direct Effects of increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation. The ultimate goal is to develop a general ecosystem model to investigate, via hypothesis testing, the potential responses of different terrestrial ecosystems to changes in the global environment over the next century. The approach involves the parallel development of models at several hierarchical levels, from the leaf to the ecosystem. At the plant level, mechanism and the direct effects of CO{sub 2} in the development of a general plant growth model, GEPSI - GEneral Plant SImulator has been stressed. At the ecosystem level, we have stressed the translation Of CO{sub 2} effects and other aspects of climate change throughout the ecosystem, including feedbacks and constraints to system response, in the development of a mechanistic, general ecosystem model SERECO - Simulation of Ecosystem Response to Elevated CO{sub 2} and Climate Change has been stressed.

  13. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    are now ques-tioning this. Measurements as dykes will changes or cut off the spatial and func-tional coherence between the city structure and the sea. Questions regarding the status and the appropriation of these ‘new’ adaptive func-tions in landscapes and open urban spaces by ordinary people must...

  14. Highly contrasted responses of Mediterranean octocorals to climate change along a depth gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pivotto, I. D.; Nerini, D.; Masmoudi, M.; Kara, H.; Chaoui, L.; Aurelle, D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has a strong impact on marine ecosystems, including temperate species. Analysing the diversity of thermotolerance levels within species along with their genetic structure enables a better understanding of their potential response to climate change. We performed this integrative study on the Mediterranean octocoral Eunicella cavolini, with samples from different depths and by means of a common garden experiment. This species does not host photosynthetic Symbiodinium, enabling us to focus on the cnidarian response. We compared the thermotolerance of individuals from 20 m and 40 m depths from the same site and with replicates from the same colony. On the basis of an innovative statistical analysis of necrosis kinetics and risk, we demonstrated the occurrence of a very different response between depths at this local scale, with lower thermotolerance of deep individuals. Strongly thermotolerant individuals were observed at 20 m with necrosis appearing at higher temperatures than observed in situ. On the basis of nine microsatellite loci, we showed that these marked thermotolerance differences occur within a single population. This suggests the importance of acclimatization processes in adaptation to these different depths. In addition, differences between replicates demonstrated the occurrence of a variability of response between fragments from the same colony with the possibility of an interaction with a tank effect. Our results provide a basis for studying adaptation and acclimatization in Mediterranean octocorals in a heterogeneous environment. PMID:26064654

  15. Water Demands with Two Adaptation Responses to Climate Change in a Mexican Irrigation District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojeda, W.; Iñiguez-Covarrubias, M.; Rojano, A.

    2012-12-01

    It is well documented that climate change is inevitable and that farmers need to adapt to changes in projected climate. Changes in water demands for a Mexican irrigation district were assessed using an irrigation scheduling model. The impact of two adaptations actions on water demands were estimated and compared with a baseline scenario. Wet and dry cropping plans were selected from the last 15 water years with actual climatology (1961-1990) taken as reference and three A1B climate change projection periods P1, P2 and P3 (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2098). Projected precipitation and air temperature (medium, maximum and minimum) data were obtained through weighted averages of the best CGCM projections for Mexico, available at the IPCC data distribution center, using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging method (REA). Two adaptation farmers' responses were analyzed: use of longer season varieties and reduction of planting dates toward colder season as warming intensifies in the future. An annual accumulated ETo value of 1554 mm was estimated for the base period P0. Cumulative and Daily irrigations demands were generated for each agricultural season using the four climate projection series and considering adaptations actions. Figure 1 integrates in a unique net flow curve for the Fall-Winter season under selected adaptations actions. The simulation results indicated that for mid century (Period P2), the use of longer-season cultivars (AV) will have more pronounced effect in daily net flow based than the reduction of planting season (APS) as climate change intensifies during present century. Without adaptation (WA), the increase in temperature will shorten the growing season of all annual crops, generating a peak shift with respect to reference case (WA-P0). Combined adoptions of adaptation actions (AP+V) can generate higher, peak and cumulative, crop water requirements than actual values as Figure 1 shows. There are clear trends that without adaptations, water

  16. Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers: implications for climate change responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroiss, Steve J; Hillerslambers, Janneke

    2015-05-01

    Seed availability and suitable microsites for germination are likely to severely constrain the responses of plant species to climate change, especially at and beyond range edges. For example, range shifts may be slow if seed availability is low at range edges due to low parent-tree abundance or reduced fecundity. Even when seeds are available, climatic and biotic factors may further limit the availability of suitable microsites for recruitment. Unfortunately, the importance of seed and microsite limitation during range shifts remains unknown, since few studies have examined both factors simultaneously, particularly across species' ranges. To address this issue, we assessed seed availability and the factors influencing germination for six conifer species across a large environmental gradient encompassing their elevational ranges. Specifically, we assessed (1) how parent-tree abundance influences annual seed availability; (2) how seed limitation varies across species' ranges; (3) how climatic and biotic factors affect germination; and (4) how seed and suitable microsite availability covary annually within and among species. We found that seed availability declined toward species' upper range edges for most species, primarily due to low parent-tree abundance rather than declining fecundity. Range expansions are thus likely to be lagged with respect to climate change, as long generation times preclude rapid increases in tree density. Negative impacts of canopy cover on germination rates suggest range shifts will further be slowed by competition with existing vegetation. Moreover, years of high seed production were generally correlated among species, but not correlated with the availability of suitable microsites, implying that seedling competition and the interaction between seed and microsite limitation will further constrain recruitment. However, the nature of microsite limitation varied strongly between treeline and low-elevation species due to differing responses

  17. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  18. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  19. Lake Ecosystem Responses to Holocene Climate Change at the Subarctic Tree-Line in Northern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reuss, Nina Steenberg; Hammarlund, Dan; Rundgren, Mats;

    2010-01-01

    A Holocene sediment sequence from Lake Seukokjaure, a subarctic lake at tree-line in northern Sweden, was analyzed to assess major changes in the structure and functioning of the aquatic ecosystem in response to climate change and tree-line dynamics. The compiled multi-proxy data, including...... sedimentary pigments, diatoms, chironomids, pollen, biogenic silica (BSi), carbon (C), nitrogen (N) elemental and stable-isotope records, and total lake-water organic carbon (TOC) concentration inferred from near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), suggest that the Holocene development of Lake Seukokjaure was...... closely coupled to changes in terrestrial vegetation with associated soil development of the catchment, input of allochthonous organic carbon, and changes in the light regime of the lake. A relatively productive state just after deglaciation around 9700 to 7800 cal years BP was followed by a slight long...

  20. Surface elevation change and vegetation distribution dynamics in a subtropical coastal wetland: Implications for coastal wetland response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Kerrylee; Saintilan, Neil; Woodroffe, Colin D.

    2014-08-01

    The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is receiving global attention and observed changes in the distribution of mangrove and salt marsh are increasingly associated with global climate change, particularly sea-level and temperature rise, and potentially elevated carbon dioxide. Processes operating over smaller-spatial scales, such as rainfall variability and nutrient enrichment are also proposed as possible short-term drivers of changes in the distribution of mangrove and salt marsh. We consider the response of mangrove and salt marsh in a subtropical estuary to changes in environmental variables over a 12 year period by comparing rates of surface elevation change and vegetation distribution dynamics to hydrological and climatic variables, specifically water level and rainfall. This period of analysis captured inter-annual variability in sea level and rainfall associated with different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We found that the mangrove and salt marsh trend of increasing elevation was primarily controlled by position within the tidal prism, in this case defined by inundation depth and distance to the tidal channel. Rainfall was not a primary driver of elevation trends in mangrove and salt marsh, but rainfall and water level variability did influence variability in elevation over the study period, though cross-correlation of these factors confounds identification of a single process driving this variability. These results highlight the scale-dependence of coastal wetland vegetation distribution dynamics; the longer-term trend of surface elevation increase and mangrove encroachment of salt marsh correlated with global sea-level trends, while short-term variability in surface elevation was related to local variability in water level and rainfall. Rates of surface elevation increase were found to lag behind rates of water level change within the Tweed River, which may facilitate further expansion of mangrove into salt marsh. This

  1. Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in Central Lithuania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juknys, Romualdas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Šveikauskaitė, Irma; Sujetovienė, Gintarė

    2016-03-01

    The analysis of long-term time series of spring phenology for different deciduous trees species has shown that leaf unfolding for all the investigated species is the most sensitive to temperatures in March and April and illustrates that forcing temperature is the main driver of the advancement of leaf unfolding. Available chilling amount has increased by 22.5 % over the last 90 years, indicating that in the investigated geographical region there is no threat of chilling shortage. The projection of climatic parameters for Central Lithuania on the basis of three global circulation models has shown that under the optimistic climate change scenario (RCP 2.6) the mean temperature tends to increase by 1.28 °C and under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) by 5.03 °C until the end of the current century. Recently, different statistical models are used not only to analyze but also to project the changes in spring phenology. Our study has shown that when the data of long-term phenological observations are available, multiple regression models are suitable for the projection of the advancement of leaf unfolding under the changing climate. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected advancement in leaf unfolding for early-season species birch consists of almost 15 days as an average of all three used GSMs. Markedly less response to the projected far future (2071-2100), climate change is foreseen for other investigated climax species: -9 days for lime, 10 days for oak, and 11 days for maple.

  2. The trophic responses of two different rodent–vector–plague systems to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Jun; Si, Xiaoyan; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-01-01

    Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change. PMID:25540277

  3. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

    2015-12-01

    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  4. Institutional adaptation to climate change: flood responses at the municipal level in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation. (author)

  5. Population and species differences in treeline tree species germination in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kueppers, L. M.; Faist, A.; Castanha, C.

    2009-12-01

    The ability of plant species to recruit within and beyond their current geographic ranges in response to climate warming may be constrained by population differences in response. A number of studies have highlighted the degree to which genotype and environment are strongly linked in forest trees (i.e., provenances), but few studies have examined whether these local adaptations are at all predictive of population or species response to change. We report the results of lab germination experiments using high and low elevation populations of both limber pine (Pinus flexilis) and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), which are important treeline species in the Rocky Mountains. Seeds collected in 2008 were germinated under two different temperature regimes (ambient and +5°C) and two different moisture regimes, and followed for 17 weeks. For both species and source elevations, warmer temperatures advanced the timing of emergence by up to 20 days, whereas the effects of moisture were less consistent. At harvest, high elevation limber pine had less root and shoot biomass, and a slightly lower root:shoot ratio, under the +5°C treatment, whereas low elevation limber pine seedling mass was not sensitive to temperature. Whether these differences persist under field conditions will be tested in a field experiment now established at Niwot Ridge, CO. The ability to accurately predict tree seedling recruitment and ultimately shifts in treeline position with climate change will improve our ability to model changes in surface albedo, water cycling and carbon cycling, all of which can generate feedbacks to regional and global climate.

  6. Response of a warm temperate peatland to Holocene climate change in northeastern Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Shanshan; Yu, Zicheng

    2011-05-01

    Studying boreal-type peatlands near the edge of their southern limit can provide insight into responses of boreal and sub-arctic peatlands to warmer climates. In this study, we investigated peatland history using multi-proxy records of sediment composition, plant macrofossil, pollen, and diatom analysis from a 14C-dated sediment core at Tannersville Bog in northeastern Pennsylvania, USA. Our results indicate that peat accumulation began with lake infilling of a glacial lake at ~ 9 ka as a rich fen dominated by brown mosses. It changed to a poor fen dominated by Cyperaceae (sedges) and Sphagnum (peat mosses) at ~ 1.4 ka and to a Sphagnum-dominated poor fen at ~ 200 cal yr BP (~ AD 1750). Apparent carbon accumulation rates increased from 13.4 to 101.2 g C m - 2 yr - 1 during the last 8000 yr, with a time-averaged mean of 27.3 g C m - 2 yr - 1 . This relatively high accumulation rate, compared to many northern peatlands, was likely caused by high primary production associated with a warmer and wetter temperate climate. This study implies that some northern peatlands can continue to serve as carbon sinks under a warmer and wetter climate, providing a negative feedback to climate warming.

  7. How is the River Water Quality Response to Climate Change Impacts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, T. T.; Willems, P.

    2015-12-01

    Water quality and its response to climate change have been become one of the most important issues of our society, which catches the attention of many scientists, environmental activists and policy makers. Climate change influences the river water quality directly and indirectly via rainfall and air temperature. For example, low flow decreases the volume of water for dilution and increases the residence time of the pollutants. By contrast, high flow leads to increases in the amount of pollutants and sediment loads from catchments to rivers. The changes in hydraulic characteristics, i.e. water depth and velocity, affect the transportation and biochemical transformation of pollutants in the river water body. The high air temperature leads to increasing water temperature, shorter growing periods of different crops and water demands from domestic households and industries, which eventually effects the level of river pollution. This study demonstrates the quantification of the variation of the water temperature and pollutant concentrations along the Molse Neet river in the North East of Belgium as a result of the changes in the catchment rainfall-runoff, air temperature and nutrient loads. Firstly, four climate change scenarios were generated based on a large ensemble of available global and regional climate models and statistical downscaling based on a quantile perturbation method. Secondly, the climatic changes to rainfall and temperature were transformed to changes in the evapotranspiration and runoff flow through the conceptual hydrological model PDM. Thirdly, the adjustment in nutrient loads from agriculture due to rainfall and growing periods of crops were calculated by means of the semi-empirical SENTWA model. Water temperature was estimated from air temperature by a stochastic model separating the temperature into long-term annual and short-term residual components. Next, hydrodynamic and water quality models of the river, implemented in InfoWorks RS, were

  8. Response of Florida shelf ecosystems to climate change: from macro to micro scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa; Raabe, Ellen

    2010-01-01

    U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research in St. Petersburg, Fla., is focusing attention on marine environments of the Florida shelf at three levels, from regional to estuarine to the individual organism. The USGS is partnering on this project with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (DACS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the University of South Florida (USF) in marine studies. The specific goals of these combined efforts are an improved understanding of the effects of ocean acidification on regional carbonate processes, changes in individual estuaries, and organism-level response. This understanding will assist in developing appropriate Federal, State, and local management responses to climate change in coastal areas.

  9. Managing the global commons decision making and conflict resolution in response to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Naegeli, W.; Lund, P. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (USA))

    1990-07-01

    A workshop was convened to develop a better understanding of decision-making matters concerning management of the global commons and to resolve conflicts in response to climate change. This workshop report does not provide a narrative of the proceedings. The workshop program is included, as are the abstracts of the papers that were presented. Only the introductory paper on social science research by William Riebsame and the closing summary by Richard Rockwell are reprinted here. This brief report focuses instead on the deliberations of the working groups that developed during the workshop. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Human responses to climate change: social representation, identity and socio-psychological action

    OpenAIRE

    Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte; Cinirella, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most important global challenges in the twenty-first century, given that a changing climate is likely to have negative and potentially irreversible consequences for the environment and human beings. Drawing upon Social Representations Theory (SRT) and Identity Process Theory (IPT) from social psychology, we argue that research should focus upon, and successfully integrate, three levels of analysis, namely (1) how climate change knowledge is constructed and circula...

  11. Favorable Climate Change Response Explains Non-Native Species' Success in Thoreau's Woods

    OpenAIRE

    Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Willis, Charles G.; Ruhfel, Brad R; Losos, Jonathan; Davis, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Invasive species have tremendous detrimental ecological and economic impacts. Climate change may exacerbate species invasions across communities if non-native species are better able to respond to climate changes than native species. Recent evidence indicates that species that respond to climate change by adjusting their phenology (i.e., the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) have historically increased in abundance. The extent to which non-native species success is similarly l...

  12. Vertebrate records in polar sediments: Biological responses to past climate change and human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, L. G.; Emslie, S. D.; Huang, T.; Blais, J. M.; Xie, Z. Q.; Liu, X. D.; Yin, X. B.; Wang, Y. H.; Huang, W.; Hodgson, D. A.; Smol, J. P.

    2013-11-01

    Biological responses to climate and environmental changes in remote polar regions are of increasing interest in global change research. Terrestrial and marine polar ecosystems have suffered from impacts of both rapid climate change and intense human activities, and large fluctuations in the population sizes of seabirds, seals, and Antarctic krill have been observed in the past decades. To understand the mechanisms driving these regime shifts in polar ecosystems, it is important to first distinguish the influences of natural forcing from anthropogenic activities. Therefore, investigations of past changes of polar ecosystems prior to human contact are relevant for placing recent human-induced changes within a long-term historical context. Here we focus our review on the fossil, sub-fossil, archaeological, and biogeochemical remains of marine vertebrates in polar sediments. These remains include well-preserved tissues such as bones, hairs and feathers, and biogeochemical markers and other proxy indicators, including deposits of guano and excrement, which can accumulate in lake and terrestrial sediments over thousands of years. Analyses of these remains have provided insight into both natural and anthropogenic impacts on marine vertebrates over millennia and have helped identify the causal agents for these impacts. Furthermore, land-based seabirds and marine mammals have been shown to play an important role as bio-vectors in polar environments as they transport significant amounts of nutrients and anthropogenic contaminants between ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.

  13. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  14. "As-If" the Climate Has Changed; What We Can Expect in Hydrologic Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieux, B. E.; Looper, J.

    2015-12-01

    Predicting the effects of climate change through hydrologic modeling with hydrologic forcing representative of historic and future climates. Understanding the hydrologic impacts of various climate scenarios and pathways is accomplished with a physics-based distributed hydrologic model with historic and future precipitation and evapotranspiration inputs. Vflo is a gridded hydrologic model setup for the 71,009 sq.-km. study area, the Canadian River, extending from arid areas in eastern New Mexico, across the Texas Panhandle to Lake Eufaula in sub-humid eastern Oklahoma. This model uses merged radar and rain gauge data to generate hydrographs at gauged and ungauged locations. Vflo is calibrated to observed stream gauge data minimizing Nash-Sutcliffe error function for volume and discharge. Streamflow characteristics at ungauged locations, for both historic and future scenarios, are used to develop ecological relationships between water quality, discharge, and fish species. Testing the change in hydrologic response from future potential evapotranspiration (PET) and future precipitation is accomplished using observed rainfall. Historical rainfall is perturbed to represent future climate scenarios. Model-based simulations are used to test various scenarios comprising: 1) warmer and drier, 2) warmer and status quo precipitation, and 3) status quo PET but drier. Bias corrected and spatially down-sampled CMIP3 datasets are used to create perturbations for the latter portion of the 21st Century, 2070-2099. The change in precipitation and PET between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 is applied to radar data from the observed period, 1995-2010. Then GCM-predicted changes in precipitation under the perturbation of historic rainfall accomplishes an important feature, i.e. preserving realistic spatial, temporal, and convective patterns of rainfall typical of the southern plains, which adds confidence to the model-based simulation of future climate impacts. Simulation of the perturbed

  15. Using Rapid-Response Scenario-Building Methodology for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, K. A.; Stoepler, T. M.; Schuster, R.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid-response scenario-building methodology can be modified to develop scenarios for slow-onset disasters associated with climate change such as drought. Results of a collaboration between the Department of the Interior (DOI) Strategic Sciences Group (SSG) and the Southwest Colorado Social-Ecological Climate Resilience Project are presented in which SSG scenario-building methods were revised and applied to climate change adaptation planning in Colorado's Gunnison Basin, United States. The SSG provides the DOI with the capacity to rapidly assemble multidisciplinary teams of experts to develop scenarios of the potential environmental, social, and economic cascading consequences of environmental crises, and to analyze these chains to determine actionable intervention points. By design, the SSG responds to acute events of a relatively defined duration. As a capacity-building exercise, the SSG explored how its scenario-building methodology could be applied to outlining the cascading consequences of slow-onset events related to climate change. SSG staff facilitated two workshops to analyze the impacts of drought, wildfire, and insect outbreak in the sagebrush and spruce-fir ecosystems. Participants included local land managers, natural and social scientists, ranchers, and other stakeholders. Key findings were: 1) scenario framing must be adjusted to accommodate the multiple, synergistic components and longer time frames of slow-onset events; 2) the development of slow-onset event scenarios is likely influenced by participants having had more time to consider potential consequences, relative to acute events; 3) participants who are from the affected area may have a more vested interest in the outcome and/or may be able to directly implement interventions.

  16. A regional response to global climate change: New England and eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Resource managers, scientists, and policy makers from New England and eastern Canada assembled at a 1993 symposium to consider the regional implications of global climate change and to develop state and provincial adaptation strategies. A summary is presented of issues discussed at this meeting, information gaps identified, and recommendations for an appropriate regional response. The symposium began with a regional overview and a review of the climate system and possible environmental impacts of global warming. Policy implications were also discussed. Working groups considered issues related to energy use, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, recreation and tourism, and sea level rise. Given the remaining uncertainties about the timing and extent of global warming, especially on a regional scale, the symposium recommended adoption of a series of measures which are beneficial in their own right and in the face of present variations of climate and its extremes. The recommendations were characterized by three broad themes: diversification of the natural resources based economy; risks to human health, ecological communities, and economic infrastructure; and information development and sharing. Proposed strategies were grouped in four major categories: adaptation to future changes; trend assessment; education; and limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

  17. Modeling agricultural commodity prices and volatility in response to anticipated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, D. B.; Tran, N.; Welch, J.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Food prices have shown a positive trend in the past decade, with episodes of rapid increases in 2008 and 2011. These increases pose a threat to food security in many regions of the world, where the poor are generally net consumers of food, and are also thought to increase risks of social and political unrest. The role of global warming in these price reversals have been debated, but little quantitative work has been done. A particular challenge in modeling these effects is that they require understanding links between climate and food supply, as well as between food supply and prices. Here we combine the anticipated effects of climate change on yield levels and volatility with an empirical competitive storage model to examine how expected climate change might affect prices and social welfare in the international food commodity market. We show that price level and volatility do increase over time in response to decreasing yield, and increasing yield variability. Land supply and storage demand both increase, but production and consumption continue to fall leading to a decrease in consumer surplus, and a corresponding though smaller increase in producer surplus.

  18. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  19. Morphological and dietary responses of chipmunks to a century of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Rachel E; Aprígio Assis, Ana Paula; Patton, James L; Marroig, Gabriel; Dawson, Todd E; Lacey, Eileen A

    2016-09-01

    Predicting how individual taxa will respond to climatic change is challenging, in part because the impacts of environmental conditions can vary markedly, even among closely related species. Studies of chipmunks (Tamias spp.) in Yosemite National Park provide an important opportunity to explore the reasons for this variation in response. While the alpine chipmunk (T. alpinus) has undergone a significant elevational range contraction over the past century, the congeneric and partially sympatric lodgepole chipmunk (T. speciosus) has not experienced an elevational range shift during this period. As a first step toward identifying the factors underlying this difference in response, we examined evidence for dietary changes and changes in cranial morphology in these species over the past century. Stable isotope analyses of fur samples from modern and historical museum specimens of these species collected at the same localities indicated that signatures of dietary change were more pronounced in T. alpinus, although diet breadth did not differ consistently between the study species. Morphometric analyses of crania from these specimens revealed significant changes in cranial shape for T. alpinus, with less pronounced changes in shape for T. speciosus; evidence of selection on skull morphology was detected for T. alpinus, but not for T. speciosus. These results are consistent with growing evidence that T. alpinus is generally more responsive to environmental change than T. speciosus, but emphasize the complex and often geographically variable nature of such responses. Accordingly, future studies that make use of the taxonomically and spatially integrative approach employed here may prove particularly informative regarding relationships between environmental conditions, range changes, and patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:26732228

  20. Prepared for climate change? A method for the ex-ante assessment of formal responsibilities for climate adaptation in specific sectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Runhaar, H.A.C.; Uittenbroek, C.J.; Rijswick, van H.F.M.W.; Mees, H.L.P.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Gilissen, H.K.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change-related risks encompass an intensification of extreme weather events, such as fluvial and pluvial flooding, droughts, storms, and heat stress. A transparent and comprehensive division of responsibilities is a necessary—but not the only—precondition for being prepared for climate ch

  1. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah, L.; Roehrdanz, PR; Ikegami, M; Shepard, AV; Shaw; Tabor, G; Zhi, L; Marquet, PA; Hijmans, RJ

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticul...

  2. How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Boogaard, Hendrik; Conijn, Sjaak; Corbeels, Marc; Deryng, Delphine; DeSanctis, Giacomo; Gayler, Sebastian; Grassini, Patricio; Hatfield, Jerry; Hoek, Steven; Izaurralde, Cesar; Jongschaap, Raymond; Kemanian, Armen R.; Kersebaum, K. Christian

    2014-01-01

    Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

  3. Modeling Sphagnum moisture stress in response to 21st century climate change using dynamic peat properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, P.; Kettridge, N.; Morris, P. J.; Waddington, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sphagnum is associated with wet habitats such as northern peatlands, which may be vulnerable to enhanced 21st century drought due to climate change. We adapted a physically based, 1.5-dimensional (vertical with horizontal interaction in the saturated zone) water-balance model to investigate the role of topographic position and depth-dependence of hydrophysical properties on Sphagnum moisture stress response to current and projected climate conditions in a southern boreal peatland. We parameterized the peat hydrophysical properties using field and lab-based measurements from three adjacent peatlands with different average water table (WT) depths, microtopgraphic variability, and microtopographic patterning; where measurement locations were chosen to take advantage of a long-term WT manipulation that resulted from berm construction in the 1950s. WT level was shown to have a strong control on pore water pressure (ψ), and thus on Sphagnum moisture stress. As a result of the close correspondence between laboratory measured surface peat hydrophysical properties for hummocks and lawns used to parameterize our model, microtopographic position was shown to have a greater impact on Sphagnum moisture stress when using a static surface level. By incorporating a dynamic surface level based on ψ, bulk density, and differences in compressibility between microtopographical elements, Sphagnum moisture stress was shown to be reduced in lawns. The reduction in moisture stress was less than what would be expected based solely on surface adjustment due to the concomitant change in pore-size distribution, which we model based on changes in bulk density. Overall, model behavior suggests that, while ψ maintains equilibrium-profile values relative to the WT level for relatively shallow values, surface ψ becomes non-linearly related to WT level below a value of approximately -0.4 m, thus greatly increasing the likelihood of desiccation under future climate scenarios where growing season

  4. Modelling land surface fluxes of CO2 in response to climate change and nitrogen deposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristina; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten; Geels, Camilla;

    Climate change, land use variations, and impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition represent uncertainties for the prediction of future greenhouse gas exchange between land surfaces and the atmosphere as the mechanisms describing nutritional effects are not well developed in climate and ecos......Climate change, land use variations, and impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition represent uncertainties for the prediction of future greenhouse gas exchange between land surfaces and the atmosphere as the mechanisms describing nutritional effects are not well developed in climate...... and ecosystems models. Recent research indicate the need for incorporating the ammonia (NH3) compensation point in atmospheric N deposition models to quantify the N budget for vegetative surfaces. This poster presents a PhD project within ECOCLIM of incorporating the NH3 compensation point in a coupled...... climate feedback mechanisms of CO2 between changes in management, land use practise, and climate change....

  5. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world. PMID:23665996

  6. The scaling law of climate change and its relevance to assessing (palaeo)biological responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiessling, Wolfgang; Eichenseer, Kilian

    2014-05-01

    interglacials, are not monotonic, but punctuated by short-term cooling intervals. The fossil record tells us that biodiversity responded dramatically to ancient intervals of climate warming. We can now see that the apparently slower rates of change in some mass extinctions (Permian-Triassic, Triassic-Jurassic) were greater than today when the scaling law is considered. This reassures us that studying deep time patterns of organismic response to climate change is a worthwhile endeavor that is relevant for predicting the future. References Burrows, M. T., Schoeman, D. S., Buckley, L. B., Moore, P., Poloczanska, E. S., Brander, K. M., Brown, C., Bruno, J. F., Duarte, C. M., Halpern, B. S., Holding, J., Kappel, C. V., Kiessling, W., O'Connor, M. I., Pandolfi, J. M., Parmesan, C., Schwing, F. B., Sydeman, W. J., and Richardson, A. J.: The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems, Science, 334, 652-655, 2011. Gingerich, P. D.: Quantification and comparison of evolutionary rates, American Journal of Science, 293A, 453-478, 1993. Sadler, P. M.: Sediment accumulation rates and the completeness of stratigraphic sections, Journal of Geology, 89, 569-584, 1981. Sun, Y., Joachimski, M. M., Wignall, P. B., Yan, C., Chen, Y., Jiang, H., Wang, L., and Lai, X.: Lethally hot temperatures during the Early Triassic greenhouse, Science, 338, 366-370, 2012.

  7. Contrasting response of glacierized catchments in the Central Himalaya and the Central Andes to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, Silvan; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Immerzeel, Walter

    2015-04-01

    total melt from glaciers differ fundamentally. In the Langtang region in the Central Himalaya, the model results indicate increasing catchment runoff until mid-century and then either slowly declining or constant runoff depending on the climate scenario. In the Juncal region in the Central Andes catchment runoff starts to decline sharply after 2031-2040, so that annual river runoff may decrease by up to 60% until the end of the century. While in the Juncal region the seasonality of runoff may change dramatically, due to less snow- and glacier melt during the summer, the seasonality of runoff in the Central Himalaya will be essentially unaffected by climate change. Differences in catchment response are explained by differences in climate change projections (as precipitation is projected to increase in the Central Himalaya but to decrease in the Central Andes), but also by the differences in glacier characteristics and glacier evolution. Meltwater production of glaciers in Juncal is already on a decline under the present climate. In Langtang, in contrast, the rate of glacier area decrease at lower elevations is exceeded by the rate of additional glacier area at high elevations contributing to melt in a warming climate. As a consequence of this, annual icemelt in the Central Himalaya will reach its peak not before mid-century.

  8. Detecting climate-change responses of plants and soil organic matter using isotopomers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleucher, Jürgen; Ehlers, Ina; Segura, Javier; Haei, Mahsa; Augusti, Angela; Köhler, Iris; Zuidema, Pieter; Nilsson, Mats; Öquist, Mats

    2015-04-01

    Responses of vegetation and soils to environmental changes will strongly influence future climate, and responses on century time scales are most important for feedbacks on the carbon cycle, climate models, prediction of crop productivity, and for adaptation to climate change. That plants respond to increasing CO2 on century time scales has been proven by changes in stomatal index, but very little is known beyond this. In soil, the complexity of soil organic matter (SOM) has hampered a sufficient understanding of the temperature sensitivity of SOM turnover. Here we present new stable isotope methodology that allows detecting shifts in metabolism on long time scales, and elucidating SOM turnover on the molecular level. Compound-specific isotope analysis measures isotope ratios of defined metabolites, but as average of the entire molecule. Here we demonstrate how much more detailed information can be obtained from analyses of intramolecular distributions of stable isotopes, so-called isotopomer abundances. As key tool, we use nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, which allows detecting isotope abundance with intramolecular resolution and without risk for isotope fractionation during analysis. Enzyme isotope fractionations create non-random isotopomer patterns in biochemical metabolites. At natural isotope abundance, these patterns continuously store metabolic information. We present a strategy how these patterns can be used as to extract signals on plant physiology, climate variables, and their interactions. Applied in retrospective analyses to herbarium samples and tree-ring series, we detect century-time-scale metabolic changes in response to increasing atmospheric CO2, with no evidence for acclimatory reactions by the plants. In trees, the increase in photosynthesis expected from increasing CO2 ("CO2 fertilization) was diminished by increasing temperatures, which resolves the discrepancy between expected increases in photosynthesis and commonly observed

  9. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

    OpenAIRE

    Stephens, P A; Mason, L.R.; Green, R. E.; Gregory, R. D.; Sauer, J.R.; Alison, J.; Aunins, A.; Brotons, L.; Butchart, S.H.M; Campedelli, T; Chodkiewicz, T.; Chylarecki, P.; Crowe, O.; Elts, J.; Escandell, V.

    2016-01-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. ...

  10. Hydrologic response of Upper Ganga basin under changing land use and climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujumdar, P.; Chawla, I.

    2013-12-01

    In the backdrop of recent devastation caused by flooding of the Ganga River in the upstream reaches of Uttarakhand region, India, it has become necessary to understand the implications of climate variability and human induced changes in landscape on the hydrology of the region. The present study assesses the effect of changing land use and climate on the hydrology of the Upper Ganga basin (UGB) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Initially, the temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) of the region are identified using high resolution multispectral satellite imageries from Landsat, for the years 1973, 1980, 2000 and 2011. The LULC analysis results show an increase in crop land and urban area in the region by 47% and 122% respectively from 1973 to 2011. After an initial decline in dense forest for three decades (from 14.5% in 1973 to 11.44% in 2000), a slight increase in dense forest is observed between 2000- 2011,from 11.44% to 14.8%. The scrub forest area and the barren land are observed to decline in the study region by 62% and 96% respectively since 1973. The land cover information along with meteorological data and soil data are used to drive the VIC model to investigate the impact of LULC changes on hydrological processes such as streamflow, baseflow, evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture in the UGB. For the simulation purpose, the basin is divided into three regions: (1) upstream, (2) midstream and (3) downstream. The VIC model is calibrated and validated for all the three regions independently at monthly time scale. The model outputs from the three regions are aggregated appropriately to generate the hydrologic response of the entire UGB. Using the calibrated model for the three regions of the UGB, sensitivity analysis is performed by generating hydrologic scenarios corresponding to different land use (LU) and climate conditions. The results from an experiment in which the climate is held constant at 1971 level and effect of

  11. Rising methane emissions in response to climate change in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to examine the methane (CH4) exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in Northern Eurasia from 1971 to 2100. Multiple model simulations using various wetland extent datasets and climate change scenarios were conducted to assess the uncertainty of CH4 fluxes, including emissions and consumption. On the basis of these simulations we estimate the current net emissions in the region to be 20–24 Tg CH4 yr−1 (1 Tg = 1012 g), two-thirds of which are emitted during the summer. In response to climate change over the 21st century, the annual CH4 emissions in the region are projected to increase at a rate of 0.06 Tg CH4 yr−1, which is an order of magnitude greater than that of annual CH4 consumption. Further, the annual net CH4 emissions are projected to increase by 6–51% under various wetland extent datasets and climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, relative to present conditions. Spatial patterns of net CH4 emissions were determined by wetland extent. Net CH4 emissions were dominated by wetlands within boreal forests, grasslands and wet tundra areas in the region. Correlation analyses indicated that water table depth and soil temperature were the two most important environmental controls on both CH4 emissions and consumption in the region. Our uncertainty analyses indicated that the uncertainty in wetland extent had a larger effect on future CH4 emissions than the uncertainty in future climate. This study suggests that better characterization of the spatial distribution and the natural diversity of wetlands should be a research priority for quantifying CH4 fluxes in this region.

  12. Subalpine Species Response to Past Climate Change and Fire Activity: Are We Underestimating the Biotic Resilience?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlock, C. L.; Iglesias, V.; Krause, T.

    2014-12-01

    Climate-change impacts on species distributions will be especially complex in mountain systems with steep environmental gradients and heterogeneous landscapes. In the western US, projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, decreased snowpack, and increased moisture deficits, all of which will impact species distributions at high elevations. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis; WBP) is a keystone species in subalpine environments and one that is highly vulnerable to projected climate trends. In the past two decades, WBP populations dramatically declined as a result of bark beetle infestation, blister rust, high-severity fires, and drought. Species-niche modeling used to map future WPB distributions is based on the relation between present-day occurrence and bioclimatic parameters. While these models capture the realized niche, the full niche space inferred from paleo-observations appears to be much larger. To assess a broad range of bioclimatic conditions for WPB, we examined its response to past changes in climate, fire activity, and species competition. General additive modeling of pollen/charcoal data from the Greater Yellowstone area indicate that WBP reached maximum population size and distribution ~12,000 -7500 years ago and declined thereafter. Population dynamics tracked variations in summer insolation, such that WBP was most abundant when summer temperatures and fire frequency were higher than at present. Competition from lodgepole pine after ~10,000 years ago limited WBP at middle elevations. Paleoecological data indicate that the fundamental WBP niche is considerably larger than assumed, and simulations that project the demise of WBP in the next 50 years are probably too dramatic given WPB's ability to thrive under warm conditions and high fire activity in the past. Management strategies that reduce biotic competition and nonnative pathogens should help increase the future resilience of WBP and other subalpine species.

  13. Climate change and farmers responses in rural china, lessons for Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.P. van Dijk (Meine Pieter)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractHow does China deal with the consequences of climate change and can we learn from that experience in Africa? Important external drivers in China such as rapid economic growth, urbanization, climate change and a growing awareness of environmental degradation have contributed to a shift in

  14. The sensitivity of global ozone predictions to dry deposition schemes and their response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centoni, Federico; Stevenson, David; Fowler, David; Nemitz, Eiko; Coyle, Mhairi

    2015-04-01

    deposition to C3 grass over central-northern Europe, N. Asia and N. America is associated with a considerable decrease of surface ozone. Global and seasonal distributions of ozone concentrations and fluxes simulated using the revised UM-UKCA model were compared with global ozone concentration and flux data sets. Finally, results from a future climate integration for the 2090s using RCP 8.5 climate change scenario are presented. This was done in order to highlight the response of UM-UKCA simulated ozone to climate change only. Another experiment took into account a future vegetation distribution with the aim to investigate how land use changes might contribute to affect future ozone.

  15. Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Changchun; CHEN Yaning; LI Weihong; CHEN Yapeng

    2006-01-01

    Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50years are the focus of more and more researchers'attention. In this paper, both temperature and precipitation time series were found to present a monotonic increasing trend using nonparametric tests.Noticeably, a significant step change in both temperature and precipitation time series occurred in 1986. By contrasting the trends of natural water process in headstream and mainstream, we found that it was anthropogenic activities not climate change that caused the river dried up and vegetation degenerated in the lower reaches of Tarim River. The results of gray correlation analysis show that the runoff of higher latitude distributing river is more closely associated with winter snow stocking, while that of lower latitude is more closely related to summer temperature. Runoff in the headstream is more sensitive to precipitation, while that in the mainstream is more sensitive to evaporation. The strong evaporation caused by increasing temperature weakened runoff to some extent in spite of the fact that precipitation increased over the past 50 years.

  16. Simulating the hydrological responses to climate change of the Xiang River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guoqing; Zhang, Jianyun; Pagano, Thomas C.; Xu, Yueping; Bao, Zhenxin; Liu, Yanli; Jin, Junliang; Liu, Cuishan; Song, Xiaomeng; Wan, Sicheng

    2016-05-01

    The responses of stream flow, actual evaporation, and soil moisture to climate change in six catchments within Xiang River basin, China, are investigated using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Results show that stream flows are highly correlated to precipitation while weakly correlated to temperature, which indicates precipitation governs variability of stream flow for these catchments. The VIC model performs well at simulating monthly discharge, with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies (NSEs) exceeding 70 % and relative errors (REs) of the volumetric fit falling in the range of ±10 % for both calibration and validation periods. The model can simulate seasonal cycles of soil moisture and actual evaporation reasonably well. Due to humid climate of the region, stream flows are more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to change in temperature, while soil moisture and actual evaporation tend to be relatively more affected by temperature. A 2 °C rise in temperature will lead to 5.62 % (4.3-7.45 %) decrease in stream flow, 6.45 % (5.8-7.02 %) increase in actual evaporation, and 5 % (4.16-5.59 %) decrease in soil moisture. A 10 % increase in precipitation will result in 14.17 % (13.44-15.70 %), 5.22 % (4.32-5.62 %), and 4.57 % (2.90-4.96 %) increases in stream flow, actual evaporation, and soil moisture, respectively.

  17. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends. PMID:27034371

  18. Electricity for groundwater use: constraints and opportunities for adaptive response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Globally, groundwater use is intensifying to meet demands for irrigation, urban supply, industrialization, and, in some instances, electrical power generation. In response to hydroclimatic variability, surface water is being substituted with groundwater, which must be viewed as a strategic resource for climate adaptation. In this sense, the supply of electricity for pumping is an adaptation policy tool. Additionally, planning for climate-change mitigation must consider CO2 emissions resulting from pumping. This paper examines the influence of electricity supply and pricing on groundwater irrigation and resulting emissions, with specific reference to Mexico—a climate–water–energy ‘perfect storm’. Night-time power supply at tariffs below the already-subsidized rates for agricultural groundwater use has caused Mexican farmers to increase pumping, reversing important water and electricity conservation gains achieved. Indiscriminate groundwater pumping, including for virtual water exports of agricultural produce, threatens the long-term sustainability of aquifers, non-agricultural water uses, and stream–aquifer interactions that sustain riparian ecosystems. Emissions resulting from agricultural groundwater pumping in Mexico are estimated to be 3.6% of total national emissions and are equivalent to emissions from transporting the same agricultural produce to market. The paper concludes with an assessment of energy, water, and climate trends coupled with policy futures to address these challenges. (letter)

  19. Wetlands as a Record of Climate Change and Hydrological Response in Arid Rift Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley, G. M.

    2004-12-01

    Of all the terrestrial depositional settings, rift basins typically provide the greatest accommodation space, and consequently have some of the longest records of continental sedimentation. Lake deposits were the only rift component studied for records of long-term climatic change and for testing hypotheses of orbital forcing. Recently, the continuing quest for the paleontological and cultural records of human origins entombed in the sedimentary rocks of the East African Rift System raised questions concerning hydrologic and biologic response to climatic change. Additional issues are the impact of climate on paleolandscapes and the environmental stresses that might have affected human evolution. Other important indicators of rift hydrology, such as springs and wetlands are now emerging as viable records of climate change. Rift valley basins are shallow, hydrologically closed systems that are responsive to shifts in climate, and specifically sensitive to changes in the hydrologic budget (P-ET). Long term wet-dry cycles in the low latitudes are thought to be astronomically controlled, i.e. Milankovitch precession cycles (19-23 ka). In the tropics, precipitation (P) varies with changes in solar insolation which fluctuates similarly. Springs and groundwater-fed wetlands are common, however the sources and sustainability of water or what geologic factors lead to the formation and longevity of wetlands is not well established. It appears that rainfall is trapped on topographic highs (rift fault blocks and volcanoes). This meteoric water infiltrates quickly through porous volcanic rocks and is stored in aquifers and released slowly. As a component of the rift hydrologic system, wetlands appear to be reliable indicators of rainfall fluctuations on both Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch time scales. Wetland sediments are commoner in the geologic record during times of higher rainfall and are less common during drier periods. Modern arid rift wetland records are peats and

  20. Synchronism of runoff response to climate change in Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang, Northwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jie Xue; JiaQiang Lei; DongWei Gui; JianPing Zhao; DongLei Mao; Jie Zhou

    2016-01-01

    The runoff in alpine river basins where the runoff is formed in nearby mountainous areas is mainly affected by temperature and precipitation. Based on observed annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff time-series datasets during 1958–2012 within the Kaidu River Basin, the synchronism of runoff response to climate change was analyzed and iden-tified by applying several classic methods, including standardization methods, Kendall's W test, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test, wavelet power spectrum analysis, and the rescaled range (R/S) approach. The concordance of the nonlinear trend variations of the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff was tested significantly at the 0.05 level by Kendall's W method. The sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with those of annual mean temperature. The periodic characteristics of annual runoff were mainly consistent with annual precipitation, having synchronous 3-year significant periods and the same 6-year, 10-year, and 38-year quasi-periodicities. While the periodic characteristics of annual runoff in the Kaidu River Basin tracked well with those of annual precipitation, the abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with the annual mean temperature, which directly drives glacier- and snow-melt processes. R/S analysis indicated that the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff will continue to increase and remain synchronously persistent in the future. This work can im-prove the understanding of runoff response to regional climate change to provide a viable reference in the management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin, a regional sustainable socio-economic development.

  1. Assessing the Response of Nematode Communities to Climate Change-Driven Warming: A Microcosm Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingold, Ruth; Moens, Tom; Rocha-Olivares, Axayácatl

    2013-01-01

    Biodiversity has diminished over the past decades with climate change being among the main responsible factors. One consequence of climate change is the increase in sea surface temperature, which, together with long exposure periods in intertidal areas, may exceed the tolerance level of benthic organisms. Benthic communities may suffer structural changes due to the loss of species or functional groups, putting ecological services at risk. In sandy beaches, free-living marine nematodes usually are the most abundant and diverse group of intertidal meiofauna, playing an important role in the benthic food web. While apparently many functionally similar nematode species co-exist temporally and spatially, experimental results on selected bacterivore species suggest no functional overlap, but rather an idiosyncratic contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, we hypothesize that functional redundancy is more likely to observe when taking into account the entire diversity of natural assemblages. We conducted a microcosm experiment with two natural communities to assess their stress response to elevated temperature. The two communities differed in diversity (high [HD] vs. low [LD]) and environmental origin (harsh vs. moderate conditions). We assessed their stress resistance to the experimental treatment in terms of species and diversity changes, and their function in terms of abundance, biomass, and trophic diversity. According to the Insurance Hypothesis, we hypothesized that the HD community would cope better with the stressful treatment due to species functional overlap, whereas the LD community functioning would benefit from species better adapted to harsh conditions. Our results indicate no evidence of functional redundancy in the studied nematofaunal communities. The species loss was more prominent and size specific in the HD; large predators and omnivores were lost, which may have important consequences for the benthic food web. Yet, we found evidence for

  2. Assessing the Response of Nematode Communities to Climate Change-Driven Warming: A Microcosm Experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Gingold

    Full Text Available Biodiversity has diminished over the past decades with climate change being among the main responsible factors. One consequence of climate change is the increase in sea surface temperature, which, together with long exposure periods in intertidal areas, may exceed the tolerance level of benthic organisms. Benthic communities may suffer structural changes due to the loss of species or functional groups, putting ecological services at risk. In sandy beaches, free-living marine nematodes usually are the most abundant and diverse group of intertidal meiofauna, playing an important role in the benthic food web. While apparently many functionally similar nematode species co-exist temporally and spatially, experimental results on selected bacterivore species suggest no functional overlap, but rather an idiosyncratic contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, we hypothesize that functional redundancy is more likely to observe when taking into account the entire diversity of natural assemblages. We conducted a microcosm experiment with two natural communities to assess their stress response to elevated temperature. The two communities differed in diversity (high [HD] vs. low [LD] and environmental origin (harsh vs. moderate conditions. We assessed their stress resistance to the experimental treatment in terms of species and diversity changes, and their function in terms of abundance, biomass, and trophic diversity. According to the Insurance Hypothesis, we hypothesized that the HD community would cope better with the stressful treatment due to species functional overlap, whereas the LD community functioning would benefit from species better adapted to harsh conditions. Our results indicate no evidence of functional redundancy in the studied nematofaunal communities. The species loss was more prominent and size specific in the HD; large predators and omnivores were lost, which may have important consequences for the benthic food web. Yet, we found

  3. A Prototype Indicators System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Gerst, M.; Lloyd, A.; Wolfinger, J. F.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.; Pouyat, R. V.

    2015-12-01

    Indicators are observations or calculations that are used to systematically report or forecast social and biophysical conditions over time. When the purpose of indicators is to, in part, provide complex scientific information that is understood by non-scientists and included in decision processes, the choice of indicators requires a structured process that includes co-production among a range of actors, including scientists, decision-makers, and a range of stakeholders. Here we describe recommendations on a vision and a prototype created for an indicators system, we term the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). The goal of the NCIS is to create a system of physical, natural, and societal indicators to communicate and inform decisions about climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The process of generating the indicator system involved input from over 200 subject-matter experts. Organized into 13 teams, experts created conceptual models of their respective sectors to generate an initial recommended set of indicators. A subset of indicators, which could be immediately implemented, were prototyped for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) a Federal program that coordinates and supports integration of global change research across the government. USGCRP reviewed the recommendations (Kenney et al., 2014) and prototypes provided by the scientific experts, and recently launched 14 indicators as proof-of-concept in support of a sustained National Climate Assessment and to solicit feedback from the users. Social science research is currently being undertaken in order to evaluate how well the prototype indicators communicate science to non-scientists, the usability of indicator system portal by scientists and decision-makers, and the development of information visualization guidelines to improve visual communication effectiveness. The goal of such efforts would be to provide input into the development of a more comprehensive USGCRP indicator

  4. Fluvial responses to late Quaternary climate change in the Shiyang River drainage system, western China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hongshan; Li, Zongmeng; Pan, Baotian; Liu, Fenliang; Liu, Xiaopeng

    2016-04-01

    As a drainage system located in arid western China, the Shiyang River, combined with considerable fluvial strata and landform information, provides an environmental context within which to investigate fluvial responses to late Quaternary climate change. Sedimentological analysis and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating enabled us to reconstruct the processes and fluvial styles of three sedimentary sequences of the Shagou and Hongshui rivers in the Shiyang drainage system. Our results present a variety of river behaviors during the late Quaternary in these areas. In the upstream Shiyang River, Zhangjiadazhuang (ZJDZ) profile of the Shagou was dominated by aggradation and a meandering channel pattern at 10.6-4.2 ka, while a noticeable channel incision occurred at ~ 4.2 ka followed by lateral channel migration. In the downstream Shiyang River, Datugou (DTG) profile of the Hongshui was an aggrading meandering river from 39.7 to 7.2 ka while channel incision occurred at 7.2 ka. Another downstream profile, Wudunwan (WDW) of the Hongshui was also characterized by aggradation from 22.4 to 4.8 ka; however, its channel pattern shifted from braided to meandering at ~ 13 ka. A discernable downcutting event occurred at ~ 4.8 ka, followed by three channel aggradation and incision episodes prior to 1.8 ka. The last 1.8 ka has been characterized by modern channel and floodplain development. The fluvial processes and styles investigated have a close correlation with late Quaternary climate change in the Shiyang River drainage. During cold phases, the WDW reach was dominated by aggradation with a braided channel pattern. During warm phases, the rivers that we investigated were also characterized by aggradation but with meandering channel patterns. Channel incision events and changes of fluvial style occurred mainly during climate transitions.

  5. Increasing biological diversity in a dynamic vegetation model and consequences for simulated response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keribin, R. M.; Friend, A. D.; Purves, D.; Smith, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    Vegetation, from tropical rainforests to the tundra, is the basis of the world food chain but is also a key component of the Earth system, with biophysical and biogeochemical impacts on the global climate, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important integrative tool for understanding its responses to climate change. DGVMs up to now have treated only a small number of plant types representing broad divisions in vegetation worldwide (e.g. trees and grasses, broadleaf and needleleaf, deciduousness), but these categories ignore most of the variation that exists between plant species and between individuals within a species. Research in community ecology makes it clear however that these variations can affect large-scale ecosystem properties such as productivity and resilience to environmental changes. The current challenge is for DGVMs to account for fine-grained variations between plants and a few such models are being developed using newly-available plant trait databases such as the TRY database and insights from community ecology such as habitat filtering. Hybrid is an individual-based DGVM, first published in 1993, that models plant physiology in a mechanistic way. We modified Hybrid 8, the latest version of the model which uses surface physics taken from the GISS ModelE GCM, to include a mechanistic gap-model component with individual-based variation in tree wood density. This key plant trait is known to be strongly correlated with a trade-off between growth and mortality in the majority of forests worldwide, which allows for otherwise-similar individuals to have different life-history strategies. We investigate how the inclusion of continuous variation in wood density into the model affects the ecosystem's transient dynamics under climate change.

  6. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  7. Response of Step-pool Mountain Channels to Wildfire Under Changing Climate-fire Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, A.; O'Dowd, A. P.; Storesund, R.; Parker, A.; Roberts-Niemann, C.

    2013-12-01

    The western U.S. is becoming more susceptible to wildfire, even though wildfires have occurred throughout history and pre-history. Warming climates leading to drier conditions have increased the occurrence of wildfires. Fire suppression policies throughout the twentieth century have also allowed fuel loads to build and increased the potential for larger and more frequent fires. These trends have growing impacts on human society, as evidenced in increasing number of structures destroyed and related costs of firefighting and resulting damages. Besides the first-order effects of wildfire, such as burned vegetation and reduced infiltration capacities, changing climate-fire regimes have significant indirect effects on hydrologic and geomorphologic responses. This contribution explores how these changes affect the stability and functioning of step-pool mountain streams in the context of landscape evolution. Step-pool systems are stable features adjusted to the prevailing flow and channel morphology, serving important functions of energy dissipation in high-energy environments. Steps and pools are also important ecologically, as they provide diverse habitats for sensitive organisms. Whereas step-pool channels are typically restructured by flows with recurrence intervals often exceeding 50 years, these flows are reached more frequently under changing climate-fire regimes. Following the Waldo Canyon Fire of June/July 2012, one of several recent wildfires that spread along the Colorado Front Range, we track the stability, destruction, and re-development of step-pool systems in two basins in Pike National Forest using terrestrial LiDAR scanning and surveys of longitudinal profiles and cross sections. We document how the first geomorphologically significant event on 1 July 2013 obliterated the step-pool structure in Williams Canyon, widened river channels and lowered channel beds by as much as one meter. Changes in ecological character accompanied the conversion of channel

  8. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  9. Sustainable forest management and impacts on forest responses to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stover, D. B.; Parker, G.; Riutta, T.; Capretz, R.; Murthy, I.; Haibao, R.; Bebber, D.

    2009-12-01

    Impacts from human activities at varying scales and intensities have a profound influence on forest carbon dynamics in addition to interactions with climate. As such, forest carbon stocks and fluxes are among the least well-defined elements of the global carbon cycle, and great uncertainty remains in predicting the effect of climate change on forest dynamics. In some cases, these management-climate interactions are well known, but often represent a fundamental gap in our understanding of ecosystem responses and are likely to be important in improving modeling of climate change, and in valuing forest carbon. To improve understanding of human induced forest management-climate interactions, a network of permanent study plots has been established in five sites around the world - in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. The sites are near larger global monitoring (Smithsonian CTFS) plots to facilitate comparisons. At each site, a series of 1-ha plots have been placed in forest stands with differing management regimes and histories. Utilizing citizen scientists from HSBC bank, all trees >5 cm dbh are tagged, mapped, identified to species, and diameter is recorded within each plot. A subset of trees have dendrometer bands attached, to record seasonal growth. Dead wood and litterfall samples are taken, and microclimate is recorded with automatic sensors. Serial measurements will allow correlation of forest dynamics with weather. Although the studies are at an early stage current results indicate above-ground biomass estimates are 102-288 Mg ha-1 for intermediate and mature Liriodendron tulipifera-dominated stands in the US, respectively. In India, mature semi-natural evergreen forests biomass estimates are 192-235 Mg ha-1 while plantation and semi-natural core forests in the UK are estimated at 211-292 Mg ha-1. Successional Atlantic forests in Brazil are estimated to contain 192-235 Mg ha-1. In the US, initial results have demonstrated dramatic differences in microclimate

  10. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  11. Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, Megan A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Oliver, Matthew J.

    2016-01-01

    The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species’ geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) is a circumpolar meso-predator exposed to the full range of Antarctic climate and is undergoing dramatic population shifts coincident with climate change. We used true presence-absence data on Adélie penguin breeding colonies to estimate past and future changes in habitat suitability during the chick-rearing period based on historic satellite observations and future climate model projections. During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. However, climate model projections suggest refugia may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, buffering species-wide declines. Climate change impacts on penguins in the Antarctic will likely be highly site specific based on regional climate trends, and a southward contraction in the range of Adélie penguins is likely over the next century. PMID:27352849

  12. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; M. Eby; Oschlies, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate ...

  13. Methane emissions from Alaska arctic tundra in response to climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In situ observations of methane emissions from the Alaska North Slope in 1987 and 1989 provide insight into the environmental interactions regulating methane emissions and into the local- and regional-scale response of the arctic tundra to interannual environmental variability. Inferences regarding climate change are based on in situ measurements of methane emissions, regional landscape characterizations derived from Landsat Multispectral Scanner satellite data, and projected regional-scale emissions based on observed interannual temperature differences and simulated changes in the spatial distribution of methane emissions. The authors results suggest that biogenic methane emissions from arctic tundra will be significantly perturbed by climatic change, leading to warmer summer soil temperatures and to vertical displacement of the regional water table. The effect of increased soil temperatures on methane emissions resulting from anaerobic decomposition in northern wetlands will be to both increase total emissions and to increase interannual and seasonal variability. The magnitude of these effects will be determined by those factors affecting the areal distribution of methane emission rates through regulation of the regional water table. At local scales, the observed 4.7C increase in mid-summer soil temperatures between 1987 and 1989 resulted in a 3.2-fold increase in the rate of methane emissions from anaerobic soils. The observed linear temperature response was then projected to the regional scale of the Alaska North Slope under three environmental scenarios. Under moderately drier environmental conditions than observed in 1987, a 4C mid-summer increase in soil temperatures more than doubled regional methane emissions relative to the 1987 regional mean of 0.72 mg m-2 hr-1 over the 88,408 km2 study area

  14. Climate and Change

    OpenAIRE

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2011-01-01

    A presentation about the basics of climate change - the science, the impacts, and the consequences. The focus is on water and the Caribbean in particular but the information is general. It includes information about climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation.

  15. Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark de Bruyn

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ. This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

  16. Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, James S; Bell, David M; Kwit, Matthew C; Zhu, Kai

    2014-06-01

    The recent global increase in forest mortality episodes could not have been predicted from current vegetation models that are calibrated to regional climate data. Physiological studies show that mortality results from interactions between climate and competition at the individual scale. Models of forest response to climate do not include interactions because they are hard to estimate and require long-term observations on individual trees obtained at frequent (annual) intervals. Interactions involve multiple tree responses that can only be quantified if these responses are estimated as a joint distribution. A new approach provides estimates of climate–competition interactions in two critical ways, (i) among individuals, as a joint distribution of responses to combinations of inputs, such as resources and climate, and (ii) within individuals, due to allocation requirements that control outputs, such as demographic rates. Application to 20 years of data from climate and competition gradients shows that interactions control forest responses, and their omission from models leads to inaccurate predictions. Species most vulnerable to increasing aridity are not those that show the largest growth response to precipitation, but rather depend on interactions with the local resource environment. This first assessment of regional species vulnerability that is based on the scale at which climate operates, individual trees competing for carbon and water, supports predictions of potential savannification in the southeastern US. PMID:24932467

  17. Climate change and tourism adaptation: literature review

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph M. Njoroge

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – This paper reviews published English literature on tourism adaptation to climate change. Climate change remains a challenge in the 21st centaury and beyond. Climate sensitive industries like tourism are vulnerable to climate change. It is for this reason that tourism researchers have continued to explore the relationship between tourism and climate change and further explored response strategies among tourism stakeholders. Tourism research on climate change adaptation may be traces ...

  18. Response to Out of Balance: The risk of irreversible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Standing Committee on Environment of the Canadian House of Commons tabled a report entitled Out of Balance, which was an investigation of issues related to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and possible responses to impending climatic change. The government's response to the recommendations made in that report are presented. The framework to the government's response is first introduced, which includes the National Action Strategy on Global Warming (NASGW) that provides a strategy for Canadian initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The strategy is based on the fundamental principles of comprehensiveness, the importance of international agreements, and flexibility. The Standing Committee's recommendations focused on policies to limit Canadian emissions of carbon dioxide, one of the major greenhouse gases. Canadian policies to achieve this goal are being implemented in the Green Plan and the NASGW. Other recommendations and responses involve environmental education, greenhouse gas data collection, phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons, natural gas leakage, energy conservation and demand management, regulatory systems, fuel efficiency standards, forest management, greenhouse gas emissions from federal departments and agencies, and encouragement of environmentally acceptable technologies

  19. Preventive strategy in response to climate change and infrastructural failures for Jakarta slum dwellers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Pooroe

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Jakarta is a city with unpredictable yet annual water shortages, both during the dry and wet season, which disproportionately affect the urban poor. One possible solution is to redevelop the existing water supply system which is now working in one of the largest slum area in Penjaringan, North Jakarta. This system is equipped with a large meter, the Master Meter, to record the communal water consumption and individual meters to record household consumptions. The Community Based Organization uses, operates, and maintains the system based on agreement with water users. Improvement of the Master Meter is achieved by harvesting uncollected rain water during the wet season with its high rainfall intensity, modifying the water storage system and improving the influent water quality. This paper aims to provide a preventive strategy in response to climate change and infrastructural failures based on a case study of community-based water supply project in Penjaringan, Jakarta.

  20. Impacts of climate change on tourism in the Mediterranean. Adaptive responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Key sensitivities to Mediterranean tourism include drought and heat waves, both of which are likely to increase with projected greenhouse warming. Adaptive responses must include lengthening of the present season and particularly taking care to cater for the increasing number of older people in the population of Northern European countries who will demand high environmental and accommodation standards and look for more bespoke holidays than the mass market tourist. Climate change in Northern Europe may affect the push-pull factors which currently favour a summer peak of tourists in many Mediterranean destinations. Infra structure and beaches may well be at risk from sea level rise and there are likely to be increased problems from forest fires, water supplies and hygiene

  1. Bridging the Divide: Linking Genomics to Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Melinda D.

    2014-03-15

    Over the project period, we have addressed the following objectives: 1) assess the effects of altered precipitation patterns (i.e., increased variability in growing season precipitation) on genetic diversity of the dominant C4 grass species, Andropogon gerardii, and 2) experimentally assess the impacts of extreme climatic events (heat wave, drought) on responses of the dominant C4 grasses, A. gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans, and the consequences of these response for community and ecosystem structure and function. Below is a summary of how we have addressed these objectives. Objective 1 After ten years of altered precipitation, we found the number of genotypes of A. gerardii was significantly reduced compared to the ambient precipitation treatments (Avolio et al., 2013a). Although genotype number was reduced, the remaining genotypes were less related to one another indicating that the altered precipitation treatment was selecting for increasingly dissimilar genomes (based on mean pairwise Dice distance among individuals). For the four key genotypes that displayed differential abundances depending on the precipitation treatment (G1, G4, and G11 in the altered plots and G2 in the ambient plots), we identified phenotypic differences in the field that could account for ecological sorting (Avolio & Smith, 2013a). The three altered rainfall genotypes also have very different phenotypic traits in the greenhouse in response to different soil moisture availabilities (Avolio and Smith, 2013c). Two of the genotypes that increased in abundance in the altered precipitation plots had greater allocation to root biomass (G4 and G11), while G1 allocated more biomass aboveground. These phenotypic differences among genotypes suggests that changes in genotypic structure between the altered and the ambient treatments has likely occurred via niche differentiation, driven by changes in soil moisture dynamics (reduced mean, increased variability and changes in the depth distribution of

  2. The response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River, Florida to climate and land use land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovenga, Paige A.; Wang, Dingbao; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Hagen, Scott C.; Alizad, Karim

    2016-05-01

    The response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River under projected climate change scenarios and land use land cover (LULC) change is evaluated. A hydrologic model using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was developed for the Apalachicola region to simulate daily runoff and sediment load under present (circa 2000) and future conditions (2100) to understand how parameters respond over a seasonal time frame to changes in climate, LULC, and coupled climate/LULC. The Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator was used to downscale temperature and precipitation from three general circulation models, each under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission scenarios A2, A1B, and B1. Projected 2100 LULC data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center was incorporated for each corresponding IPCC scenario. Results indicate that climate change may induce seasonal shifts to both runoff and sediment loading. Changes in LULC showed that more sediment load was associated with increased agriculture and urban areas and decreased forested regions. A nonlinear response for both runoff and sediment loading was observed by coupling climate and LULC change, suggesting that both should be incorporated into hydrologic models when studying the future conditions. The outcomes from this research can be used to better guide management practices and mitigation strategies.

  3. Temporal responses of peak citrus flowering to climate change in Iran: 1960-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitchett, Jennifer; Grab, Stefan; Thompson, Dave; Roshan, GholamReza

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies investigating floral and faunal phenological responses to climate change have highlighted the extent to which these relationships are species and location specific. This study investigates temporal responses of citrus peak flowering to climate change in the cities of Kerman, Shiraz and Gorgan, Iran. Phenological data comprise peak flowering dates of five citrus types: orange (Citrus x sinensis), tangerine (Citrus x tangerine), sweet lemon (Citrus limetta), sour lemon (Citrus x limon) and sour orange (Citrus x aurantium). These were collected daily from government heritage gardens located within each of the three cities, and archived by a private Iranian company, for the period 1960-2010. For the same period, daily Tmax, Tmin, rainfall and sunshine hour data were acquired from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. Time trend analyses were undertaken for both the phenological and meteorological data, followed by linear regression to determine the nature and extent of any relationships between these variables. We find that the mean peak flowering dates, and their long-term trends over the 51-year period, are very similar amongst the five citrus types within each city, but demonstrate significant differences between cities. Flowering date advances of 0.12-0.17d/yr are recorded for Kerman, and more rapid advances of 0.56-0.65d/yr for Shiraz. Notable progressive delays in flowering dates occur in Gorgan (0.05-0.1d/yr). The peak flowering dates of citrus in the former two cities demonstrate strong relationships with mean annual Tmin, ranging from r = 0.46-0.61 (p = 0002; p < 0.0001) for Kerman to r = 0.53-0.67 (p = 0.0386; p < 0.0001) for Shiraz, and equating to peak flowering advances of 3.15-3.39d/°C and 4.34-5.47d/°C respectively. By contrast, the strongest relationships between peak flowering dates and climate in Gorgan are with rainfall (r = 0.02-0.3, p = 0.8874-0.0528), indicating a weak phenophase response of 0.1d/mm. Gorgan also provides a

  4. Water yield responses to climate change and variability across the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Nan; Sun, Ge; Feng, Xiaoming; Fu, Bojie

    2013-02-01

    SummaryChina is facing a growing water crisis due to climate and land use change, and rise in human water demand across this rapidly developing country. Understanding the spatial and temporal ecohydrologic responses to climate change is critical to sustainable water resource management. We investigated water yield (WY) responses to historical (1981-2000) and projected potential climate changes across a large and complex climatic and land cover gradients over the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC, a standard terrestrial transect of the International GeoBiological Project, IGBP). After an annual scale evapotranspiration (ET) model was validated with historical streamflow records from ten watersheds, the model was applied to the NSTEC that encompasses seven climatic zones. We found that (1) The spatial and temporal variations of WY were highly dependent on precipitation (P) patterns during 1981-2000. Overall, the influences of significant temperature (T) rise on the trend of WY were suppressed by the insignificant P change during 1981-2000. (2) The long-term mean WY by climatic zone had a similar pattern as P. The different climatic zones had differential contributions to the total volumetric WY of the NSTEC. Within each climatic zone, the volumetric WY for each land cover type was highly dependent on its area of each land cover. (3) Corresponding to the P pattern, the mean WY decreased from the low (South) to high latitude (North), but the rates of changes varied along the NSTEC. Along the NSTEC, the sensitivity of WY to potential T and P changes increased from the high latitude to the low latitude. Future potential changes in WY are likely to follow changes in P with some modification by changes in energy availability. We conclude that precipitation is a major driver for water resource availability, and reliable prediction of future precipitation change patterns is critical to hydrologic forecast across the study region.

  5. Terrestrial Responses to Holocene Climatic Change on the Eastern Seaboard of Newfoundland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, P.; Daley, T.; Blundell, A.; Charman, D.; Barber, K.; Street-Perrott, A.; Loader, N.; Odoni, N.; Chambers, F.

    2006-12-01

    Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Atlantic region are a high priority research issue because of their key relationship with ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) and patterns of regional and global climatic change. Whilst we are beginning to understand the nature and magnitude of past changes in ocean circulation in the Atlantic region, there is a rather poor understanding of the terrestrial responses to these events. The Atlantic provinces of Canada are located in a key area for this research, lying at the boundary between `polar' and `Atlantic' water masses. The so-called `8.2ka Event' is the best known example of variability in ocean circulation and climate, forced by melt water flows from the Laurentide ice sheet. It is widely thought, therefore, that the marine sediments of the Laurentian Fan region of the North Atlantic Ocean should closely reflect discharge of meltwater and ice rafting during the major climatic events of the early-Holocene (Keigwin et al., 2005). Likewise, the on-shore area of this same region, adjacent to the meltwater transit routes, should also show a strong response to meltwater and ice rafting events. We report research that shows that the plateau bogs of Newfoundland hold sensitive records of palaeohydrological change that can be related to palaeoclimatic events. Multi-proxy reconstructions of past bog surface wetness reveal a distinctive pool phase at 8.2 ka and on 13 further occasions through the Holocene, culminating with the Little Ice Age. Few sphagnum-dominated ombrotrophic communities have been recorded on the circum-Atlantic seaboards at 8.2ka. The existence of these assemblages in Newfoundland presents the opportunity to derive oxygen isotopic reconstructions across the '8.2 ka Event' for a terrestrial genus that has an intimate coupling with the atmosphere. Here we report genus-specific analyses of delta 18O from an ombrotrophic peat bog. The results show that the `8.2 ka Event' in Newfoundland was short (ca. 100

  6. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by −10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles. (letter)

  7. Geoengineering Responses to Climate Change Selected Entries from the Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology

    CERN Document Server

    Vaughan, Naomi

    2013-01-01

    Failure by the international community to make substantive progress in reducing CO2 emissions, coupled with recent evidence of accelerating climate change, has brought increasing urgency to the search for additional remediation approaches.  This book presents a selection of state-of-the-art geoengineering methods for deliberately reducing the effects of anthropogenic climate change, either by actively removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or by decreasing the amount of sunlight absorbed at the Earth’s surface.  These methods contrast with more conventional mitigation approaches which focus on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. Geoengineering technologies could become a key tool to be used in conjunction with emissions reduction to limit the magnitude of climate change.  Featuring authoritative, peer-reviewed entries from the Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology, this book presents a wide range of climate change remediation technologies. Examines th...

  8. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengis, N.; Keller, D. P.; Eby, M.; Oschlies, A.

    2015-09-01

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by -10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles.

  9. Responses of ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change treatments along an elevation gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhuoting; Koch, George W.; Dijkstra, Paul; Bowker, Matthew A.; Hungate, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    Global temperature increases and precipitation changes are both expected to alter ecosystem carbon (C) cycling. We tested responses of ecosystem C cycling to simulated climate change using field manipulations of temperature and precipitation across a range of grass-dominated ecosystems along an elevation gradient in northern Arizona. In 2002, we transplanted intact plant–soil mesocosms to simulate warming and used passive interceptors and collectors to manipulate precipitation. We measured daytime ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem C exchange throughout the growing season in 2008 and 2009. Warming generally stimulated ER and photosynthesis, but had variable effects on daytime net C exchange. Increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C cycling only in the driest ecosystem at the lowest elevation, whereas decreased precipitation showed no effects on ecosystem C cycling across all ecosystems. No significant interaction between temperature and precipitation treatments was observed. Structural equation modeling revealed that in the wetter-than-average year of 2008, changes in ecosystem C cycling were more strongly affected by warming-induced reduction in soil moisture than by altered precipitation. In contrast, during the drier year of 2009, warming induced increase in soil temperature rather than changes in soil moisture determined ecosystem C cycling. Our findings suggest that warming exerted the strongest influence on ecosystem C cycling in both years, by modulating soil moisture in the wet year and soil temperature in the dry year.

  10. NEW INSTITUTIONAL TASKS TO EFFICIENT RESPONSE AGAINST THE ECOLOGICAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucretia Mariana Constantinescu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a priority for the European Union. The strategies and plans developed into European Union aims to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, while encouraging other nations and regions to do the same. Meanwhile, the European Union develops strategies for adapting to climate changes, which can’t be prevented. These strategies are certainly a significant cost but doing nothing will be more expensive on the long term.

  11. Shaping agricultural innovation systems responsive to food insecurity and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Brooks, Sally Heather; Loevinsohn, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and variability present new challenges for agriculture, particularly for smallholder farmers who continue to be the mainstay of food production in developing countries. Recent global food crises have exposed the structural vulnerability of globalized agri-food systems, highlighting climate change as just one of a complex set of environmental, demographic, social and economic drivers generating instability and food insecurity, the impacts of which disproportionately affect poore...

  12. Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect

  13. Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

    2012-11-01

    Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

  14. The People Paradox: Self-Esteem Striving, Immortality Ideologies, and Human Response to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janis L. Dickinson

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available In 1973, Ernest Becker, a cultural anthropologist cross-trained in philosophy, sociology, and psychiatry, invoked consciousness of self and the inevitability of death as the primary sources of human anxiety and repression. He proposed that the psychological basis of cooperation, competition, and emotional and mental health is a tendency to hold tightly to anxiety-buffering cultural world views or “immortality projects” that serve as the basis for self-esteem and meaning. Although he focused mainly on social and political outcomes like war, torture, and genocide, he was increasingly aware that materialism, denial of nature, and immortality-striving efforts to control, rather than sanctify, the natural world were problems whose severity was increasing. In this paper I review Becker’s ideas and suggest ways in which they illuminate human response to global climate change. Because immortality projects range from belief in technology and materialism to reverence for nature or belief in a celestial god, they act both as barriers to and facilitators of sustainable practices. I propose that Becker's cross-disciplinary “science of man,” and the predictions it generates for proximate-level determinants of social behavior, add significantly to our understanding of and potential for managing the people paradox, i.e., that the very things that bring us symbolic immortality often conflict with our prospects for survival. Analysis of immortality projects as one of the proximate barriers to addressing climate change is both cautionary and hopeful, providing insights that should be included in the cross-disciplinary quest to uncover new pathways toward rational, social change.

  15. Modeling dynamics of tundra plant communities on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia, in response to climate change and grazing pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Understanding the responses of the arctic tundra biome to a changing climate requires knowledge of the complex interactions among the climate, soils and biological system. This study investigates the individual and interaction effects of climate change and reindeer grazing across a variety of climate zones and soil texture types on tundra vegetation community dynamics using an arctic vegetation model that incorporates the reindeer diet, where grazing is a function of both foliar nitrogen concentration and reindeer forage preference. We found that grazing is important, in addition to the latitudinal climate gradient, in controlling tundra plant community composition, explaining about 13% of the total variance in model simulations for all arctic tundra subzones. The decrease in biomass of lichen, deciduous shrub and graminoid plant functional types caused by grazing is potentially dampened by climate warming. Moss biomass had a nonlinear response to increased grazing intensity, and such responses were stronger when warming was present. Our results suggest that evergreen shrubs may benefit from increased grazing intensity due to their low palatability, yet a growth rate sensitivity analysis suggests that changes in nutrient uptake rates may result in different shrub responses to grazing pressure. Heavy grazing caused plant communities to shift from shrub tundra toward moss, graminoid-dominated tundra in subzones C and D when evergreen shrub growth rates were decreased in the model. The response of moss, lichen and forbs to warming varied across the different subzones. Initial vegetation responses to climate change during transient warming are different from the long term equilibrium responses due to shifts in the controlling mechanisms (nutrient limitation versus competition) within tundra plant communities.

  16. Modeling dynamics of tundra plant communities on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia, in response to climate change and grazing pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Q.; Epstein, H. E.; Walker, D. A.; Frost, G. V.; Forbes, B. C.

    2011-10-01

    Understanding the responses of the arctic tundra biome to a changing climate requires knowledge of the complex interactions among the climate, soils and biological system. This study investigates the individual and interaction effects of climate change and reindeer grazing across a variety of climate zones and soil texture types on tundra vegetation community dynamics using an arctic vegetation model that incorporates the reindeer diet, where grazing is a function of both foliar nitrogen concentration and reindeer forage preference. We found that grazing is important, in addition to the latitudinal climate gradient, in controlling tundra plant community composition, explaining about 13% of the total variance in model simulations for all arctic tundra subzones. The decrease in biomass of lichen, deciduous shrub and graminoid plant functional types caused by grazing is potentially dampened by climate warming. Moss biomass had a nonlinear response to increased grazing intensity, and such responses were stronger when warming was present. Our results suggest that evergreen shrubs may benefit from increased grazing intensity due to their low palatability, yet a growth rate sensitivity analysis suggests that changes in nutrient uptake rates may result in different shrub responses to grazing pressure. Heavy grazing caused plant communities to shift from shrub tundra toward moss, graminoid-dominated tundra in subzones C and D when evergreen shrub growth rates were decreased in the model. The response of moss, lichen and forbs to warming varied across the different subzones. Initial vegetation responses to climate change during transient warming are different from the long term equilibrium responses due to shifts in the controlling mechanisms (nutrient limitation versus competition) within tundra plant communities.

  17. Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T. K.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M. G.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2016-03-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the global rate, largely as a result of ice-albedo and temperature feedbacks. Although deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs; refs ,). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation are seen more quickly than for mitigation of CO2 and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This Letter is one of the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCFs emissions, taking into account black carbon (BC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone (O3), and their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. This study extends the scope of previous works by including more detailed calculations of Arctic radiative forcing and quantifying the Arctic temperature response. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations owing to the large absolute amount of emissions. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible mitigation scenario for SLCFs, phased in from 2015 to 2030, could cut warming by 0.2 (+/-0.17) K in 2050.

  18. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  19. The upper mountain forest and tree response to climate change in south Siberian Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.; Ranson, J.

    2010-12-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate topographic features of high elevation mountain environments govern spatial distribution and climate-driven dynamics of the forests growing there. The study area included upper mountain forest stands formed by larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb) and Siberian pine(Pinus sibirica Du Tour) (elevation range 1800-2600 m) in the mountains of southern Siberia. We used archive maps, satellite and on-ground data from 1960-2002. Data were normalized to avoid bias caused by uneven distribution of elevation, and slope steepness within the analyzed area. Spatial distribution of forest stands were analyzed with respect to topography based on a DEM. The primary results show that mountain forest spatial patterns are anisotropic with respect to topography. At a given elevation, the majority of forests occupied slopes with greater than mean slope values. As the elevation increased forests shifted to steeper slopes. The forest azimuth distribution orientation changed clockwise with elevation increase (total shift was 120 deg) indicating a combined effect of wind and water stress on the observed forest patterns. Warming caused changes in the forest distribution patterns during the last four decades. The area of closed forests increased 1.5 times, which was attributed to increased stand density and tree migration. The migration rate was 1.5 ± 0.9 m yr^-1 and caused a mean forest line shift of 63 ± 37m. Along with upward migration, downward tree migration onto hill slopes was observed. Changes in tree morphology were also noted as wide-spread transformation of the prostrate forms of Siberian pine and larch into erect forms. An analysis of the radial growth increments showed that the widespread vertical transformation of krummholz began in the mid -1980s. Radial and apical growth increments correlated with increase in air temperature (summer and “cold period”) and CO2 concentration. Regeneration responded to temperature increase of 1 deg C by migration

  20. Response of ESV to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusuli, Yusufujiang; Sidik, Halida; Gupur, Adila; Hong, Jiang; Kadir, Rayila

    2016-04-01

    Ecosystem goods and services refer to the dependence of economic wealth and human well-being on natural systems. It is a common knowledge that the changing of structure and function of the ecosystem due to climate change and human activities. It is a priority issue to study on various spatiotemporal scales, the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change and anthropogenic pressure in inland areas. In an effort to better understand the influence of climate change and human activities on ecosystem services, we evaluated the change in ESV of the Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang, China from 1973 to 2014 employing methods of MK, MK Sneyers, ESV and dynamic degree of LUCC. The Landsat images, digital elevation model (DEM) and metrological data were applied to assessing the ESV and its change. According to the degree of effects of the climate change and human activities, the research area was divided into two parts: the mountain area and the plain oasis area at a contour of 1400 m above sea level. According to type and affect, the land cover was classified as water, wetland, desert, fields, glacier, warm shrub grassland, cold meadow steppe and highland vegetation. We analyzed the relationship between the variation of ESV and precipitation, and evaporation and then quantitatively differentiated the influence of climate change and human activities on ESV. Results show that: (1) distinct change points of precipitation and evaporation in mountain and plain oasis of the Yanqi basin were detected by the MK-Sneyers test. The precipitation increased and the evaporation declined in mountain and plain oasis in the same way. Enlargement of agricultural areas to accommodate an increased population and socio-economic development was detected by conversion matrix of LUCC in oasis area. As a result, the variation of ESV was caused by climate change and human activities jointly; (2) the declining trend of ESV in the mountain area was mainly caused by shrinking of the glacier area; (3) ESV was

  1. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  2. Sensitivity analysis of modelled responses of vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau to doubled CO2 and associated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Linjing; Liu, Xiaodong

    2016-04-01

    Increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration affect both the global climate and plant metabolism, particularly for high-altitude ecosystems. Because of the limitations of field experiments, it is difficult to evaluate the responses of vegetation to CO2 increases and separate the effects of CO2 and associated climate change using direct observations at a regional scale. Here, we used the Community Earth System Model (CESM, version 1.0.4) to examine these effects. Initiated from bare ground, we simulated the vegetation composition and productivity under two CO2 concentrations (367 and 734 ppm) and associated climate conditions to separate the comparative contributions of doubled CO2 and CO2-induced climate change to the vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The results revealed whether the individual effect of doubled CO2 and its induced climate change or their combined effects caused a decrease in the foliage projective cover (FPC) of C3 arctic grass on the TP. Both doubled CO2 and climate change had a positive effect on the FPC of the temperate and tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) on the TP, but doubled CO2 led to FPC decreases of C4 grass and broadleaf deciduous shrubs, whereas the climate change resulted in FPC decrease in C3 non-arctic grass and boreal needleleaf evergreen trees. Although the combination of the doubled CO2 and associated climate change increased the area-averaged leaf area index (LAI), the effect of doubled CO2 on the LAI increase (95 %) was larger than the effect of CO2-induced climate change (5 %). Similarly, the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) were primarily sensitive to the doubled CO2, compared with the CO2-induced climate change, which alone increased the regional GPP and NPP by 251.22 and 87.79 g C m-2 year-1, respectively. Regionally, the vegetation response was most noticeable in the south-eastern TP. Although both doubled CO2 and associated climate change had a

  3. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  4. Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeGrande, A. N.; Schmidt, G. A.; Shindell, D. T.; Field, C. V.; Miller, R. L.; Koch, D. M.; Faluvegi, G.; Hoffmann, G.

    2006-01-01

    Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway into the Hudson Bay at approximately the same time. This melt water pulse may have been the catalyst for a decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and subsequent cooling around the Northern Hemisphere. However, lack of direct evidence for ocean cooling has lead to speculation that this abrupt event was purely local to Greenland and called into question this proposed mechanism. We simulate the response to this melt water pulse using a coupled general circulation model that explicitly tracks water isotopes and with atmosphere-only experiments that calculate changes in atmospheric aerosol deposition (specifically 10Be and dust) and wetland methane emissions. The simulations produce a short period of significantly diminished North Atlantic Deep Water and are able to quantitatively match paleoclimate observations, including the lack of isotopic signal in the North Atlantic. This direct comparison with multiple proxy records provides compelling evidence that changes in ocean circulation played a major role in this abrupt climate change event. PMID:16415159

  5. The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Daniel; Parker, Tess; Woollings, Tim; Harvey, Benjamin; Shaffrey, Len

    2016-07-01

    Midlatitude weather and climate are dominated by the jet streams and associated eastward moving storm systems. Occasionally, however, these are blocked by persistent anticyclonic regimes known as blocking. Climate models generally predict a small decline in blocking frequency under anthropogenic climate change. However, confidence in these predictions is undermined by, among other things, a lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying the change. Here we analyze blocking (mostly in the Euro-Atlantic sector) in a set of sensitivity experiments to determine the effect of different parts of the surface global warming pattern. We also analyze projected changes in the impacts of blocking such as temperature extremes. The results show that enhanced warming both in the tropics and over the Arctic act to strengthen the projected decline in blocking. The tropical changes are more important for the uncertainty in projected blocking changes, though the Arctic also affects the temperature anomalies during blocking.

  6. [Responses of vegetation changes to climatic variations in Panxi area based on the MODIS multispectral data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Huai-Yong; Wu, Jin-Hui; Liu, Meng; Yang, Wu-Nian

    2014-01-01

    It is an important research area to quantitatively studying the relationship between global climatic change and vegetation change based on the remote sensing technology. Panxi area is the ecological barrier of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and it is essential for the stability of the ecological environment of Sichuan as well as that of the whole China. The present article analyzes the vegetation change in 2001-2008 and the relationship between vegetation change and climatic variations of Panxi area, based on MODIS multispectral data and meteorological data. The results indicate that NDVI is positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The precipitation is the major factor that affects the change of vegetation in the Panxi region and the trend of NDVI is similar with autumn precipitation; while at the same time the influence of climate has a one-month-time-lag. PMID:24783554

  7. Changes in terpene production and emission in response to climate change and eutrophication

    OpenAIRE

    Blanch Roure, Josep-Salvador

    2011-01-01

    80% of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) that are emitted every year to the atmosphere come from biogenic sources (BVOCs), where many different families are included, such as isoprenoids. The production and emission of those compounds is influenced by environmental variables such as light and temperature. Those environmental variables will be affected by global change which has been predicted for the next decades. The main objective of this thesis was to study the effect of global change, ...

  8. Plant eco-physiological responses to multiple environmental and climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rost Albert, K.

    2009-03-15

    }; 6) Photosynthetic capacity were closely linked to growth strategy and rewetting stimulation were closely related to high nitrogen leaf content; 7) Responses to elevated CO{sub 2}, drought and warming could not be deduced from single factor experiments; 8) Ambient UV-B decreased PSII performance despite stimulation of UV-B absorbing compounds in high arctic plants in both short and long term; 9) Ambient UV-B decreased net photosynthesis via effects on PSII performance in combination with effects on Calvin Cycle; 10) Current UV-B level is a important factor affecting high arctic plants, particularly in years with spring advancement induced by warming. In conclusion, the results in this thesis suggest the responses of temperate heath plant photosynthesis to be imitatively linked with plant growth strategy and water relations, and also that the responses of photosynthesis to the important drivers often interacted. Current UV-B levels decreases productivity in high arctic heath plants, and advanced spring in response to warming may lead to further decrease while other climatic changes as elevated CO{sub 2} may negate this. Stimulated productivity of temperate heath plants is likely under the climatic conditions predicted to be prevailing in Denmark anno 2075. (author)

  9. The Response of Environmental Capacity for Malaria Transmission in West Africa to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2011-12-01

    The climate of West Africa is characterized by north-south gradients in temperature and rainfall. Environmental capacity for malaria transmission (e.g. as measured by vectorial capacity) is strongly tied to these two variables; temperature affects the development rate of the malaria parasite, as well as the lifespan of the mosquitoes that transmit the disease, and rainfall is tied to mosquito abundance, as the vector lays its eggs in rain-fed water pools. A change in climate is therefore expected to lead to changes in the distribution of malaria transmission. Current general circulation models agree that the temperature in West Africa is expected to increase by several degrees in the next century. However they predict a wide range of possible rainfall scenarios in the future, from intense drying to significant increases in rainfall (Christensen et al., 2007). The effects these changes will have on environmental capacity for malaria transmission depend on the magnitude and direction of the changes, and on current conditions. For example, malaria transmission will be more sensitive to positive changes in rainfall in dry areas where mosquito populations are currently limited by water availability than in relatively wet areas. Here, we analyze combinations of changes in rainfall and temperature within the ranges predicted by GCMs, and assess the impact these combinations will have on the environmental capacity for malaria transmission. In particular, we identify climate change scenarios that are likely to have the greatest impact on environmental capacity for malaria transmission, as well as geographic "hot spots" where the greatest changes are to be expected. Christensen, J. H., Busuioc, A., & et al. (2007). Regional climate projections. In S. Solomon (Ed.), Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  10. Climate Change Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

    1998-03-01

    There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

  11. Enabling Responsible Energy Decisions: What People Know, Want to Know, and Need to Know about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    PytlikZillig, L. M.; Tomkins, A. J.; Harrington, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    As part of a broader regional effort focused on climate change education and rural communities, this paper focuses on a specific effort to understand effective approaches to two presumably complementary goals: The goal of increasing knowledge about climate change and climate science in a community, and the goal of having communities use climate change and climate science information when making decisions. In this paper, we explore the argument that people do not need or want to know about climate change, in order to make responsible and sustainable energy decisions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that involvement in making responsible and sustainable energy decisions will increase openness and readiness to process climate science information, and thus increase learning about climate change in subsequent exposures to such information. Support for these hypotheses would suggest that rather than encouraging education to enable action (including engagement in attempts to make responsible decisions), efforts should focus on encouraging actions first and education second. To investigate our hypotheses, we will analyze and report results from efforts to engage residents from a medium-sized Midwestern city to give input on future programs involving sustainable energy use. The engagement process (which will not be complete until after the AGU deadline) involves an online survey and an optional face-to-face discussion with city officials and experts in energy-related areas. The online survey includes brief information about current local energy programs, questions assessing knowledge of climate change, and an open-ended question asking what additional information residents need in order to make good decisions and recommendations concerning the energy programs. To examine support for our hypotheses, we will report (1) relationships between subjective and objective knowledge of climate science and willingness to attend the face-to-face discussion about the city's energy decisions

  12. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  13. Climate Change and Agriculture in Latin America, 2020-2050 : Projected Impacts and Response to Adaptation Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Erick C.M. Fernandes; Soliman, Ayat; Confalonieri, Roberto; DONATELLI Marcello; Tubiello, Francesco

    2012-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on agriculture are projected to be significant in coming decades, so response strategies, and their likely costs, should be evaluated now. That is why this study produced an open-access, crop-climate-economic impact modeling platform for Latin America and the Caribbean, that can be extended to other regions, then modified and improved by users as new crop, cli...

  14. A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

    OpenAIRE

    Lange, Manfred A.; Mustapha El-Maayar

    2013-01-01

    A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA), the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the...

  15. Extension Agrometeorology as the Answer to Stakeholder Realities: Response Farming and the Consequences of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durton Nanja

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Extension agrometeorology is applied in agrometeorological extension work to advice and serve farmers. In agrometeorology, response farming has been developed decades ago. Climate change complicates response farming, but does not alter it. This paper reports on new operationalization of that response farming in new educational commitments in agroclimatology. It is explained how “Science Field Shops” are an example in Indonesia. This was based on a thorough analysis of what climate change means for farmers in Asia. For Africa, we report on eying the training of agrometeorological extension trainers (“product intermediaries” in West Africa, based on a thorough analysis of what climate change means for farmers in Africa. We also compare experience with reaching farmers in South Africa and farmer communities in Zambia, as new forms of supporting response farming, all under conditions of a changing climate. The paper, for the first time, connects results from four different programs the senior author is taking part in. There is first and foremost the need for training material to make it possible for the product intermediaries to participate in training extension intermediaries. This should, particularly, bring new knowledge to farmers. With what is presently available and with new approaches, climate extension should be developed and tested with farmers in ways that improve farmer preparedness and decision making.

  16. Seasonal responses of terrestrial ecosystem water-use efficiency to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Mengtian; Piao, Shilong; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peng, Shushi; Ciais, Philippe; Cheng, Lei; Mao, Jiafu; Poulter, Ben; Shi, Xiaoying; Yao, Yitong; Yang, Hui; Wang, Yingping

    2016-06-01

    Ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long-term trend in annual EWUE over many regions and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO2 . The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982-2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water-use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET), and transpiration-based WUE (WUEt , the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process-based models and satellite-based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite-based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite-based products. Trend analysis, based on process-model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO2 and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid- and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO2 in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m(-2)  mm(-1)  yr(-1) for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO2, and NDEP. PMID

  17. The Integration of Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, DemandResponse and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Evaluatorsand Planners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vine, Edward

    2007-05-29

    This paper explores the feasibility of integrating energyefficiency program evaluation with the emerging need for the evaluationof programs from different "energy cultures" (demand response, renewableenergy, and climate change). The paper reviews key features andinformation needs of the energy cultures and critically reviews theopportunities and challenges associated with integrating these withenergy efficiency program evaluation. There is a need to integrate thedifferent policy arenas where energy efficiency, demand response, andclimate change programs are developed, and there are positive signs thatthis integration is starting to occur.

  18. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  19. Response of hydrological processes to climate change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, X.; Cui, X.; Yu, J.; Sun, W.

    2015-05-01

    According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, the temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in the future. As a sensitive region to climate change, hydrological process in the middle reaches of the Yellow River will be significantly affected by climate change. In this study, water resources change in the future for a typical basin there: Lushi basin is assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Downscaled ensemble output from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s was input to SWAT as the regional climate change scenario. The prediction shows that ET of this basin increases in winter and spring, and decreases in summer and autumn, and the streamflow increases throughout the year. The increased streamflow will probably improve the water demand guarantee and be conducive to crop growth in winter and spring, and may improve the flood risk in summer.

  20. Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Rötter, Reimund P.; Höhn, Jukka; Trnka, Mirek; Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy R.; Kahiluoto, Helena

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and ...

  1. Phenological responses to climate change and their trait-induced differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziello, Chiara; Estella, Nicole; Menzel, Annette

    2010-05-01

    On the basis of an extensive plant phenological dataset which involves phenological stations distributed all over Europe (from Spain to Russia, from the Alps to the Scandinavian Peninsula), we assess those differences in temporal trends related to Plant Functional Types (PFTs, i.e. woodiness), ecological traits (i.e. dates of flowering) and functional traits (i.e. pollination mode). We analyze differences in the sensitivity of different flowering stages to these traits. We focus on different substages such as beginning of flowering, full flowering, end of flowering because flowering seems to be so far one of the stages most affected by climate change. An increasing risk of pollinosis is one of the most likely expected consequences of climate change, and the detection of differences in responses of wind-pollinated plants with respect to other vegetation categories is important also to understand the impact of increasing temperatures on the behavior of allergenic plants. Wind-pollinated plants can be considered as representative of allergenic species because anemophilous species include those ones with the highest capability of causing allergy-related diseases in human subjects (e.g. the birch family, some cultivated and spontaneous grasses). Our main results indicate that, during the last three decades, wind-pollinated plants are advancing more than insect-pollinated ones, moreover showing a significant linear dependence of trends on phenodates. The tendency towards an earlier onset of flowering of anemophilous species could be explained due to the fact that all the considered species are angiosperms. For this plant division, anemophily is a condition derived from entomophily, and likely developed as a response to adverse or changing environmental conditions. So, it could be possible to look at them as species somehow predisposed to a more rapid adaptation process. On the other hand, this behavior could also be caused by the direct dependence on temperature of these

  2. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  3. Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yang

    Full Text Available Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET and water yield (WY of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

  4. Whither justice? An analysis of local climate change responses from South East Queensland, Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Diana MacCallum; Jason Byrne; Wendy Steele

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is a highly contested policy issue in Australia, generating fierce debate at every level of governance. In this paper we explore a crucial tension in both the policy and the public debate: a seeming lack of attention to social inclusion and broader equity implications. We pay special attention to the municipal scale, where concerns about social difference and democratic participation are often foregrounded in political discourse, using South East Queensland—a recognised climate...

  5. Climate change and development responses on agriculture in Quang Nam Province Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schroll, Henning; Andersen, Jan; Lund, Søren;

    2011-01-01

    statistics and interviews and important climate impacts and adaptations were identified and assessed. An energy flow method was used to describe the agricultural situation. During the last decade the study showed that farmers in the agricultural field had increased the productivity and they performed strong...... should be evolved as adaptation to climate change and as well use of economic incentives in planning should be established....

  6. Photoperiodic response may facilitate adaptation to climatic change in long-distance migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppack, Timothy; Pulido, Francisco; Czisch, Michael; Auer, Dorothee P; Berthold, Peter

    2003-08-01

    Recent climatic change is causing spring events in northern temperate regions to occur earlier in the year. As a result, migratory birds returning from tropical wintering sites may arrive too late to take full advantage of the food resources on their breeding grounds. Under these conditions, selection will favour earlier spring arrival that could be achieved by overwintering closer to the breeding grounds. However, it is unknown how daylength conditions at higher latitudes will affect the timing of life cycle stages. Here, we show in three species of Palaearctic-African migratory songbirds that a shortening of migration distance induces an advancement of springtime activities. Birds exposed to daylengths simulating migration to and wintering in southern Europe considerably advanced their spring migratory activity and testicular development. This response to the novel photoperiodic environment will enable birds wintering further north to advance spring arrival and to start breeding earlier. Thus, phenotypic flexibility in response to the photoperiod may reinforce selection for shorter migration distance if spring temperatures continue to rise. PMID:12952632

  7. General Practitioners’ responses to global climate change - lessons from clinical experience and the clinical method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blashki Grant

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climate change is a global public health problem that will require complex thinking if meaningful and effective solutions are to be achieved. In this conceptual paper we argue that GPs have much to bring to the issue of climate change from their wide-ranging clinical experience and from the principles underpinning their clinical methods. This experience and thinking calls forth particular contributions GPs can and should make to debate and action. Discussion We contend that the privileged experience and GP way of thinking can make valuable contributions when applied to climate change solutions. These include a lifetime of experience, reflection and epistemological application to first doing no harm, managing uncertainty, the ability to make necessary decisions while possessing incomplete information, an appreciation of complex adaptive systems, maintenance of homeostasis, vigilance for unintended consequences, and an appreciation of the importance of transdisciplinarity and interprofessionalism. Summary General practitioners have a long history of public health advocacy and in the case of climate change may bring a way of approaching complex human problems that could be applied to the dilemmas of climate change.

  8. Use of an automated digital images system for detecting plant status changes in response to climate change manipulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesaraccio, Carla; Piga, Alessandra; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Angelo; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2014-05-01

    climate manipulations: control (no manipulation), warming (overnight cover), and drought (interception of the periodic precipitation) treatments (36 shots x panorama (3 rows x 12 columns) with a degree of overlapping equal to 30%). On each panorama, ROIs (Regions of Interest) focusing major species of the shrubland ecosystem were identified. Then, image analysis was performed to obtain information on vegetation status (i.e. color signals and phenology). The color channel information (digital numbers; DNs) were extracted from the RAW file. The overall brightness (i.e., total RGB DN, green excess index) was also calculated. Finally, the RGB value was correlated with the pattern of phenological development. Preliminary results of this study show that the use of digital images are well-suited to identify phenological pattern of the Mediterranean species. Results of digital images analysis can be a valuable support for ecologists, environmental scientists, and land managers providing information useful to interpret phenological responses of plants to climate change, to validate satellite-based phenology data, and to provide input to adaption strategies plans to climate change.

  9. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

    2015-12-01

    Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory

  10. A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manfred A. Lange

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA, the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the next. Our approach was applied to remove the effect of non-climatic factors on crop yield and, hence, to isolate the effect of the observed climate change between 1961 and 2006 on three widely crops grown in three Mediterranean countries—namely wheat, corn and potato—using national-level crop yield observations’ time-series. Obtained results show that the proposed methodology provides us with a ground basis to improve substantially our understanding of crop yield response to climate change at a scale that is relevant to large-scale estimations of agricultural production and to food security analyses; and therefore to reduce uncertainties in estimations of potential climate change effects on agricultural production. Furthermore, a comparison of outputs of our methodology and FDA outputs yielded a difference in terms of maize production in Egypt, for example, that exceeds the production of some neighbouring countries.

  11. Local Perceptions and Responses to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of Laikipia District, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Ayeri Ogalleh

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural policies in Kenya aim to improve farmers’ livelihoods. With projected climate change, these policies are short of mechanisms that promote farmers’ adaptation. As a result, smallholders are confronted with a variety of challenges including climate change, which hinders their agricultural production. Local knowledge can be instrumental in assisting smallholders to cope with climate change and variability. In this paper, we present empirical evidence that demonstrates local knowledge, perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability amongst smallholders of Laikipia district of Kenya. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI calculated for one station is compared with smallholders’ perceptions. Data was collected using qualitative and quantitative methods in Umande and Muhonia sub-locations. Qualitative data included 46 transcripts from focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Quantitative data is derived from 206 interviewees. We analyzed qualitative and quantitative data using Atlas-ti and SPSS respectively. According to smallholders’ perceptions, climatic variability is increasingly changing. Local perceptions include decreasing rainfalls, increasing temperatures, increasing frosts and increasing hunger. The PDSI shows a trend towards severe droughts in the last four decades, which is in accordance with farmers’ perceptions. Smallholders use a combination of coping and adaptation strategies to respond to variability, including, among others, diversification of crop varieties, migration and sale of livestock. Significant relationships exist between drought perceptions and some adaptations such as migration and sale of livestock. Farmers have an in-depth knowledge of climatic variability, which they use to inform their coping and adaptation strategies. Knowledge of climatic perceptions and adaptations are vital entry points for decision makers and policy makers to learn how and where to enhance the

  12. Climate change and forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies of the earth's present forms of vegetation show that the climate change to be expected from double the current greenhouse gas concentrations would have a fundamental impact on forest structures. This problem can be confronted in two ways: Either by adusting long-term silvicultural planning according to predictions derived from vegetation model calculations; or by managing forests in the manner of a flexible response strategy until changes actually occur. An evaluation of representative surveys of forests in Bavaria has shown that contrary to widerspread regions of Bavaria. This suggests that in the event of a warning by 1 to 2 C, assuming all other climate parameters to remain roughly constant, the beech could play a major role in the forest structure in large parts of Bavaria. The data material also shows that in defiance of all pessimistic forecasts the growth of beech has markedly improved over the past decade. To date the only explanations offered for this phenomenon are growth-stimulating changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, specifically the rise in carbon dioxide; and the enhanced nitrogen deposition in the soil. This example shows that the immense number of unpredictable influences prohibit long-term forecasts on forest development. Now if the forest is made up of a large number of tree species whose most favoured climatic ranges are known, then it is possible to meet climate changes with early silvicultural interventions and so preclude forest destruction. Scientifically founded silviculature can thus become an important support for the stability of our forests. (orig.)

  13. Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    Full Text Available Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA. Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2 show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change

  14. Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, William B; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2)) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used

  15. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheets, H. David; Mitchell, Charles E.; Melchin, Michael J.; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L.; Hawkins, Andrew D.

    2016-07-01

    Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (˜447–444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

  16. Modelling the Responses of Carbon Fluxes to Climate Change in Northeast China Forests using IBIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingwei Liu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the long-term exchange of carbon dioxide between terrestrial and the atmosphere is an important priority of the current climate change research. In this regard, it is particularly significant to provide valid data on fluxes of carbon over representative ecosystems. In this study, we used a modified process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (Integrated Biosphere Simulator, IBIS, which represents biogeochemical and biophysical process, coupling the carbon, nitrogen and water cycles on each specific time steps, to generalize our understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of Net Primary Productivity (NPP, Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP and Soil Respiration (RS over northeast China to climate change for the period 1961 to 2080. The model results demonstrate a powerful approach to integrate and expand our knowledge of climate changes on northeast China forest carbon dynamics now and in the future.

  17. Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

    1980-01-01

    Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

  18. Signs of critical transition in the Everglades wetlands in response to climate and anthropogenic changes

    OpenAIRE

    R. Foti; del Jesus, M.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2013-01-01

    The increasing pressure of climatic change and anthropogenic activities is predicted to have major effects on ecosystems around the world. With their fragility and sensitivity to hydrologic shifts and land-use changes, wetlands are among the most vulnerable of such ecosystems. Focusing on the Everglades National Park, we here assess the impact of changes in the hydrologic regime, as well as habitat loss, on the spatial configuration of vegetation species. Because the current structuring of ve...

  19. Local Colonization-Extinction Dynamics Generate Lags in the Response to Climate Change in Eastern North American Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talluto, M. V.; Boulangeat, I.; Vissault, S.; Gravel, D.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is likely to push many species to the limits of their ecological niches and lead to mismatches between species ranges and local environmental conditions. Forested ecosystems in particular may have difficulty tracking climate change due to slow growth and dispersal rates. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs), commonly used to predict the response of species distributions to climate change, relate species occurrences to climate to describe the present niche; however they often project into the future without accounting for slow processes that might produce lags in the response to climate change. An alternative type of model that analyzes patch-scale colonization and extinction (C-E) rates along an environmental gradient has been successful in describing species range limits in theoretical studies. Because the model is stochastic and dynamic, it is more robust to changes in the environmental gradient than static SDMs. We applied such a model to 40 of the most abundant trees in eastern North American forests, using repeated observations across multiple decades to parameterize the C-E rates. We show that C-E rates for many species respond to climate in a manner that generates predicted range limits when the species is at equilibrium with the environment. Moreover, current distributions of many species are significantly out of equilibrium with the present climate, with predicted range limits shifted 10s to 100s of km northward from the present distribution. These results suggest that present warming has already exceeded the thermal tolerance at the southern range limits for the dominant trees of eastern North American forests, producing millions of ha of newly suitable areas north of the present distribution of these species that have not yet been colonized, as well as large southern regions where species are present but expected to be lost in the long-term as dead trees are not replaced, even if no further climate warming occurs.

  20. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  1. Climate change and air pollution

    OpenAIRE

    D’Amato, Gennaro; Bergmann, Karl Christian; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Liccardi, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; Stanziola, Anna; D’Amato, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Summary The observational evidence indicates that recent regional changes in climate, particularly temperature increases, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Allergens patterns are also changing in response to climate change and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollen grains especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. Although genetic factors are important in the development of asthma and allergi...

  2. Responses of Bacterial Communities to Simulated Climate Changes in Alpine Meadow Soil of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rui, Junpeng; Li, Jiabao; Wang, Shiping; An, Jiaxing; Liu, Wen-tso; Lin, Qiaoyan; Yang, Yunfeng; He, Zhili; Li, Xiangzhen

    2015-09-01

    The soil microbial community plays an important role in terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling. However, microbial responses to climate warming or cooling remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict the consequences of future climate changes. To address this issue, it is critical to identify microbes sensitive to climate change and key driving factors shifting microbial communities. In this study, alpine soil transplant experiments were conducted downward or upward along an elevation gradient between 3,200 and 3,800 m in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau to simulate climate warming or cooling. After a 2-year soil transplant experiment, soil bacterial communities were analyzed by pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons. The results showed that the transplanted soil bacterial communities became more similar to those in their destination sites and more different from those in their "home" sites. Warming led to increases in the relative abundances in Alphaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Actinobacteria and decreases in Acidobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, and Deltaproteobacteria, while cooling had opposite effects on bacterial communities (symmetric response). Soil temperature and plant biomass contributed significantly to shaping the bacterial community structure. Overall, climate warming or cooling shifted the soil bacterial community structure mainly through species sorting, and such a shift might correlate to important biogeochemical processes such as greenhouse gas emissions. This study provides new insights into our understanding of soil bacterial community responses to climate warming and cooling. PMID:26116682

  3. Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-03-01

    Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

  4. Characterizing streamflow response of a mountaintop mined watershed to changing landuse and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zegre, N.; Maxwell, A.; Lamont, S.

    2012-12-01

    Mountaintop removal mining (MTR) is a dominant driver of land use/land cover changes in the Appalachian Region of the eastern United States and is expected to increase in scale in the coming decades. The U.S. EPA estimates that, by 2012, MTR will have impacted 6.8% of the largely forested 4.86 million hectares portion of the Appalachian Coalfield region within West Virginia (WV), Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee. Between 1992 and 2002, approximately 1,994 km of headwater streams have been buried, and this number is expected to double to almost 4,000 km in 2012. Several devastating floods in this region have been attributed to this practice and recent studies have demonstrated cumulative aquatic degradation downstream of MTR. Despite its scale and extent, its impact on runoff, particularly at larger spatial scales (10^3 - 10^4 km^2), is poorly understood due to the complex relationships between climate, land use, and hydrology. To explore the impacts of this practice at larger scales, we estimated land use/land cover changes using Landsat 5 TM imagery over five periods between 1994-2010; conducted non-parametric trend analyses on annual streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature; and used a simple rainfall-runoff model to estimate hydrologic response time for the Big Coal River watershed (1,011 km^2) located in the southern WV coalfields. Though not statistically significant, annual streamflow decreased, hydrologic response time increased, air temperature increased, and annual precipitation was geographically variable across the area. Correlation analyses reveals that the decreasing trend in streamflow at annual timescales is likely related to changes in precipitation rather than land use/land cover changes. The lack of statistically detectable trends and correlations between land use change and hydrology at this scale are not entirely unexpected due to the long history and the mosaic of anthropogenic and natural processes and disturbances that span large

  5. Climate change and impacts on human health in the Arctic: an international workshop on emerging threats and the response of Arctic communities to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Parkinson, Alan J.; Berner, James

    2009-01-01

    The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment(ACIA) was published in 2005 and was the firstcomprehensive scientific assessment of climatechange in the Arctic (1). Potential direct andindirect health impacts of climate change aredescribed in chapter 15 of this assessment.International Journal of Circumpolar Health 68:1 2009

  6. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  7. Response of the boreal forest ecosystem to climatic change and its silvicultural implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellomaeki, S.; Haenninen, H.; Karjalainen, T. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Faculty of Forestry] [and others

    1996-12-31

    During the next 100 years, the mean annual temperature is expected to be 1-6 deg C higher than at present. It is also expected to be accompanied by a lengthening of the thermal growing season and increased precipitation. Consequently, climatic change will increase the uncertainty of the management of forest ecosystems in the future. In this context, this research project aimed to outline the ecological and silvicultural implications of climatic change with regard to (1) how the expected climatic change might modify the functioning and structure of the boreal forest ecosystem, and (2) how the silvicultural management of the forest ecosystem should be modified in order to maintain sustainable forest yield under changing climatic conditions. The experimental component of the project concerned first the effect that elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon have on the ontogenetic development of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L) and on the subsequent increase in frost damage during winter. The second part of the study looked the effect of elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon on the growth of Scots pine through photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, nutrient supply, and changes in crown structure. This experiment was utilised in several subprojects of the overall project

  8. Basin scale assessment of gas hydrate dissociation in response to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reagan, M.; Moridis, G.; Elliott, S.; Maltrud, M.; Cameron-Smith, P.

    2011-07-01

    Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating climate. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those now occurring in the arctic and those predicted under future climate change scenarios, has only recently been investigated. Field investigations have discovered substantial methane gas plumes exiting the seafloor along the Arctic Ocean margin, and the plumes appear at depths corresponding to the upper limit of a receding gas hydrate stability zone. It has been suggested that these plumes may be the first visible signs of the dissociation of shallow hydrate deposits due to ongoing climate change in the arctic. We simulate the release of methane from oceanic deposits, including the effects of fully-coupled heat transfer, fluid flow, hydrate dissociation, and other thermodynamic processes, for systems representative of segments of the Arctic Ocean margins. The modeling encompasses a range of shallow hydrate deposits from the landward limit of the hydrate stability zone down to water depths beyond the expected range of century-scale temperature changes. We impose temperature changes corresponding to predicted rates of climate change-related ocean warming and examine the possibility of hydrate dissociation and the release of methane. The assessment is performed at local-, regional-, and basin-scales. The simulation results are consistent with the hypothesis that dissociating shallow hydrates alone can result in significant methane fluxes at the seafloor. However, the methane release is likely to be confined to a narrow region of high dissociation susceptibility, defined by depth and temperature, and that any release will be continuous and controlled, rather than explosive. This modeling also establishes the first realistic bounds for methane release along the arctic continental shelf for potential hydrate

  9. Human response to robust climate change around 5500 cal BP on the territory of Bohemia (Czech Republic)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dreslerová, Dagmar

    Oslo: European Association of Archaeologists, 2011. [Annual Meeting of the European Association of Archaeologists /17./. 14.09.2011-18.09.2011, Oslo] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z80020508 Keywords : Neolithic * climate change * human response Subject RIV: AC - Archeology, Anthropology, Ethnology

  10. Bringing the material back in: US responses to the global climate change regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since environmental sociology was born as a sub-discipline of sociology, its proponents have encouraged sociological research that incorporates environmental factors. After a quarter of a century, however, sociological research continues to overlook the role of environmental factors - even when the object of the research is to understand an environmental issue. This paper analyzes the role of environmental factors to understand the ways that natural resource interests have been translated into political outcome in the form of American responses to the potential regulation of greenhouse gases. Incorporating data about natural resource use and national decision-making both before and after the Bush Administration's decision to pull out of negotiations for the Kyoto Protocol, this paper concludes that comprehending fully political decisions about global climate change in the United States requires that we recognize the conjoint constitution between policy-making and the environmental factors that are affected by such policies. More broadly, this research supports the notion that, in order to understand social phenomena more fully, sociologists must recommit to bringing environmental factors into social research. (author)

  11. Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Ferrise, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    The uncertainty about climate change (CC) complicates impact adaptation and risk management evaluation at the regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty and for simulating and communicating climate change impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here we apply an ensemble of crop models for adapting rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain), constructing adaptation response surfaces (ARS). Our methodology has been adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). Impact response surfaces (IRS) are plotted surfaces showing the response of an impact variable (here crop yield Y) to changes in two explanatory variables (here precipitation P and temperature T). By analyzing adaptation variables such as changes in crop yield (ΔY) when an adaptation option is simulated, these can be interpreted as the adaptation response to potential changes of P and T, i.e. ARS. To build these ARS, we explore the sensitivity of an ensemble of wheat models to changes in T and P. Baseline (1981-2010) T and P were modified using a delta change approach with changes in the seasonal patterns. Three levels of CO2 (representing future conditions until 2050) and two actual soil profiles are considered. Crop models were calibrated with field data from Abeledo et al. (2008) and Cartelle et al. (2006). Most promising adaptation options to be analyzed by the ARS approach are identified in a pilot stage with the models DSSAT4.5 and SiriusQuality v.2, subsequently simulating the selected adaptation combinations by the whole ensemble of 11 crop models. The adaptation options identified from pilot stage were: a cultivar with no vernalisation requirements, shortening or extending a 10 % the crop cycle of the standard cultivar, sowing 15 days earlier and 30 days later than the standard date, supplementary irrigation with 40 mm at flowering and full irrigation. These options and those of the standard cultivar and management resulted in 54 combinations and 450.000 runs per crop model. Our

  12. Comparison of the responses of two temperate Alpine valley glaciers to climate change at the decadal scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbud, Chrystelle; Tahir, Adnan Ahmad; Micheletti, Natan; Lane, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Glacier advance and recession are considered as key indicators of climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Understanding the relationship between climatic variations and glacial responses is crucial. Here, we use archival photogrammetric methods to generate high resolution and precise Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of two Alpine valley glaciers that have shown a contrasting response to recent climatic variability. Digital photogrammetry is well-established for glacier monitoring, mass balance determination and computation of the volumes of ice mass change. Reconstructions of the recent history of glaciers have been performed through and since the Little Ice Age and also more recently in relation to recent global warming. This study uses aerial imagery available from the early 1960s. Archival digital photogrammetry is applied to reconstruct the decadal scale glacial history of the Haut Glacier d'Arolla and the Glacier de Tsijiore Nouve in south western Switzerland. The data generated are used to explore the linkages between glacier changes and climate forcing. While both of the glaciers were subject to exactly the same climatic settings (they are only a few km apart), the responses to climatic variability have been markedly different. The data show continual recession of the Haut Glacier d'Arolla since 1967, associated with long-term climatic amelioration but only a weak response to shorter-term climatic deterioration. Glacier surface velocity estimates obtained using surface particle tracking showed that, unlike for most Swiss glaciers during the late 1970s and early 1980s, ice mass flux from the accumulation zone was too low to compensate for the effects of glacier thinning. Associated with glacier response time, that means that whilst there may have been a reduction in the ablation rate during the colder period, the flux did still not exceed the ablation rate, and hence snout advance was prevented. By contrast, the Tsijiore Nouve Glacier

  13. Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010–2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha−1 yr−1. Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. - Highlights: • A novel calibration step was introduced for modeling biodiversity with ForSAFE-Veg. • Modeled increases in tree cover are consistent with empirical studies. • Reductions in N deposition decreased future graminoid percent cover. • Critical loads of N to protect biodiversity should consider climate change effects. - Subalpine plant biodiversity in Rocky Mountain National Park has already been impacted by N deposition and climate change and is expected to experience significant future effects

  14. Education Responses to Climate Change and Quality: Two Parts of the Same Agenda?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangay, Colin; Blum, Nicole

    2010-01-01

    Increasing attention to climate change and the current global economic crisis has underscored the need for approaches to education that equip and empower people of all ages to deal with uncertain environmental, economic and political futures. A range of educational and research initiatives already exist which could support this aim, however,…

  15. Climate change adaptation in practice: People's responses to tidal flooding in Semarang, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Harwitasari; J.A. van Ast (Jacko)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIn many places in the world the effects of common floods are increased by climate change. In the area around the Indonesian city of Semarang, the number and effects of tidal flooding are becoming more and more severe. We found that the inhabitants used different strategies against the im

  16. FORECASTING REGIONAL TO GLOBAL PLANT MIGRATION IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The rate of future climate change is likely to exceed the migration rates of most plant species. The replacement of dominant species by locally rare species may require decades, and extinctions may occur when plant species cannot migrate fast enough to escape the consequences of...

  17. An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

    2009-12-01

    A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions

  18. Growth characteristics and response to climate change of Larix Miller tree-ring in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As one of the earliest species used in dendrochronological studies, Larix responds sensitively to climate change. In this study, nine larch species and one variety from eleven sites were collected to study the growth characteristics of tree-ring width using dendrochronological methods. Ten residual tree-ring chronologies were developed to analyze their relationships with regional standardized anomaly series by Pearson’s correlation analysis. The results suggest that most of the chronologies had significantly positive correlations with the mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in May. The spring temperature evidently limited the radial growth of the larch species without precipitation control. The largest mean tree-ring width was found in Himalayan Larch in Jilong, whereas Master Larch in Si’er reflected the smallest mean value. Both species presented little climate information in this study. Chinese, Potanin, and Tibetan larches are significantly correlated with climate change, implying a huge potential for climate history reconstruction. The elevation of the sampling sites appears to be an important condition for tree-ring growth of larches responding to climate factors.

  19. Developing a Pilot Indicator System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Arndt, D. S.; Pouyat, R. V.; Aicher, R.; Lloyd, A.; Malik, O.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    The National Climate Indicators System is being developed as part of sustained assessment activities associated with the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA is conducted under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is required to provide a report to Congress every 4 years. The National Climate Indicators System is a set of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information. The Indicators System will address questions important to multiple audiences including (but not limited to) nonscientists (e.g., Congress, U.S. citizens, students), resource managers, and state and municipal planners in a conceptually unified framework. The physical, ecological, and societal indicators will be scalable, to provide information for indicators at national, state, regional, and local scales. The pilot system is a test of the Indicators System for evaluation purposes to assess the readiness of indicators and usability of the system. The National Climate Indicator System has developed a pilot given the recommendations of over 150+ scientists and practitioners and 14 multidisciplinary teams, including, for example, greenhouse gases, forests, grasslands, water, human health, oceans and coasts, and energy. The pilot system of indicators includes approximately 20 indicators that are already developed, scientifically vetted, and implementable immediately. Specifically, the pilot indicators include a small set of global climate context indicators, which provide context for the national or regional indicators, as well as a set of nationally important U.S. natural system and human sector indicators. The purpose of the pilot is to work with stakeholder communities to evaluate the system and the individual indicators using a robust portfolio of evaluation studies, which

  20. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  1. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  2. Climate change: The challenges for public health preparedness and response- An Indian case study

    OpenAIRE

    Patil Rajan; Deepa T

    2007-01-01

    Extremes weather changes surpassing their usual statistical ranges and tumbling records in India could be an early warning bell of global warming. Extreme weather events like the recent record setting in western Indian city of Mumbai or all time high fatalities due to the heat wave in southern Indian states or increasing vulnerability of easten Indian states to flood could all be a manifestation of climate change in the Asian subcontinent. While the skeptics may be inclined to dismiss these e...

  3. Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Peter V; Miniat, Chelcy F; Elliott, Katherine J; Swank, Wayne T; Brantley, Steven T; Laseter, Stephanie H

    2016-09-01

    Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply. PMID:27038309

  4. Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Ferrise, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    The uncertainty about climate change (CC) complicates impact adaptation and risk management evaluation at the regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty and for simulating and communicating climate change impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here we apply an ensemble of crop models for adapting rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain), constructing adaptation response surfaces (ARS). Our methodology has been adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). Impact response surfaces (IRS) are plotted surfaces showing the response of an impact variable (here crop yield Y) to changes in two explanatory variables (here precipitation P and temperature T). By analyzing adaptation variables such as changes in crop yield (ΔY) when an adaptation option is simulated, these can be interpreted as the adaptation response to potential changes of P and T, i.e. ARS. To build these ARS, we explore the sensitivity of an ensemble of wheat models to changes in T and P. Baseline (1981-2010) T and P were modified using a delta change approach with changes in the seasonal patterns. Three levels of CO2 (representing future conditions until 2050) and two actual soil profiles are considered. Crop models were calibrated with field data from Abeledo et al. (2008) and Cartelle et al. (2006). Most promising adaptation options to be analyzed by the ARS approach are identified in a pilot stage with the models DSSAT4.5 and SiriusQuality v.2, subsequently simulating the selected adaptation combinations by the whole ensemble of 11 crop models. The adaptation options identified from pilot stage were: a cultivar with no vernalisation requirements, shortening or extending a 10 % the crop cycle of the standard cultivar, sowing 15 days earlier and 30 days later than the standard date, supplementary irrigation with 40 mm at flowering and full irrigation. These options and those of the standard cultivar and management resulted in 54 combinations and 450.000 runs per crop model. Our

  5. Climate change negotiation simulations for students: responses across gender and age.A case study: San Francisco State University World Climate Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasheva, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    For decades, role-play and simulation exercises have been utilized for learning and policy decision making. While the power of Model UN simulations in building first-person experience and understanding of complex international issues is well known, the effectiveness of simulations for inspiring citizen engagement in scientific public-policy issues is little studied. My work hypothesizes that climate-change negotiation simulations can enhance students' scientific literacy and policy advocacy. It aims to determine how age and gender influence the responsiveness of students to such simulations. During the 2015 fall semester, I am conducting World Climate exercises for fellow graduate and undergraduate students at San Francisco State University. At the end of the exercise, I will have collected the responses to an anonymous questionnaire in which the participants indicate age and gender. The questionnaire asks participants to describe their hopes and fears for the future and to propose public and personal actions for achieving a strong climate change agreement. I am tracking differences to determine whether participants' age and gender correlate with particular patterns of feeling and thinking. My future research will aim to determine whether and how strongly the World Climate Exercise has affected participants' actual policy engagement. This work will also reflect on my experiences as a World Climate facilitator. I will describe the facilitation process and then discuss some of my observations from the sessions. I will specify the challenges I have encountered and suggest strategies that can strengthen the learning process. World Climate is a computer-simulation-based climate change negotiations role-playing exercise developed by Climate Interactive in partnership with the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

  6. Modeling of Oceanic Gas Hydrate Instability and Methane Release in Response to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reagan, Matthew; Reagan, Matthew T.; Moridis, George J.

    2008-04-15

    Paleooceanographic evidence has been used to postulate that methane from oceanic hydrates may have had a significant role in regulating global climate, implicating global oceanic deposits of methane gas hydrate as the main culprit in instances of rapid climate change that have occurred in the past. However, the behavior of contemporary oceanic methane hydrate deposits subjected to rapid temperature changes, like those predicted under future climate change scenarios, is poorly understood. To determine the fate of the carbon stored in these hydrates, we performed simulations of oceanic gas hydrate accumulations subjected to temperature changes at the seafloor and assessed the potential for methane release into the ocean. Our modeling analysis considered the properties of benthic sediments, the saturation and distribution of the hydrates, the ocean depth, the initial seafloor temperature, and for the first time, estimated the effect of benthic biogeochemical activity. The results show that shallow deposits--such as those found in arctic regions or in the Gulf of Mexico--can undergo rapid dissociation and produce significant methane fluxes of 2 to 13 mol/yr/m{sup 2} over a period of decades, and release up to 1,100 mol of methane per m{sup 2} of seafloor in a century. These fluxes may exceed the ability of the seafloor environment (via anaerobic oxidation of methane) to consume the released methane or sequester the carbon. These results will provide a source term to regional or global climate models in order to assess the coupling of gas hydrate deposits to changes in the global climate.

  7. Agriculture and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How will increases in levels of CO2 and changes in temperature affect food production? A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO2 but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall? That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO2 from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO2 by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops

  8. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  9. Response of methanogenic archaea to Late Pleistocene and Holocene climate changes in the Siberian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischoff, Juliane; Mangelsdorf, Kai; Gattinger, Andreas; Schloter, Michael; Kurchatova, Anna N.; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Wagner, Dirk

    2013-04-01

    order to investigate the link between the methane dynamics in permafrost deposits and climate changes in the past, we studied the abundance, composition, and methane production of methanogenic communities in Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments of the Siberian Arctic. We detected intervals of increased methane concentrations in Late Pleistocene and Holocene deposits along a 42 ka old permafrost sequence from Kurungnakh Island in the Lena Delta (northeast Siberia). Increased amounts of archaeal life markers (intact phospholipid ethers) and a high variety in genetic fingerprints detected by 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid gene analyses of methanogenic archaea suggest presently living and presumably active methanogenic archaea in distinct layers predominantly in Holocene deposits, but also in deep frozen ground at 17 m depth. Potential methanogenic activity was confirmed by incubation experiments. By comparing methane concentrations, microbial incubation experiments, gene analysis of methanogens, and microbial life markers (intact phospholipid esters and ethers) to already partly degraded membrane lipids, such as archaeol and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, we demonstrated that archaeol likely represents a signal of past methanogenic archaea. The archaeol signal was used to reconstruct the response of methanogenic communities to past temperature changes in the Siberian Arctic, and the data suggest higher methane emissions occurred during warm periods, particularly during an interval in the Late Pleistocene and during the Holocene. This new data on present and past methanogenic communities in the Siberian terrestrial permafrost imply that these microorganisms will respond to the predicted future temperature rise in the Arctic with increasing methane production, as demonstrated in previous warmer periods.

  10. Response of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change in France: Assessment of Uncertainties and Trend Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laanaia, N.; Carrer, D.

    2014-12-01

    In the framework of the French research project ORACLE we examine the impact of climate change on agriculture and forests in France for two time horizons (2020-2050 and 2070-2100) in reference to the 1970-2000 period. The biophysical variables (leaf area index, equilibrium forest biomass, leaf onset and offset, ...) are produced by ISBA-A-gs forced by the atmospheric variables produced by differents climat models and scenarios. Their trends will be analyzed. The impact of uncertainties at various levels through multi-model and multi-scenario approaches will be assessed

  11. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  12. Response of double cropping suitability to climate change in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In adapting US agriculture to the climate of the 21st century, a key unknown is whether cropping frequency may increase, helping to offset projected negative yield impacts in major production regions. Combining daily weather data and crop phenology models, we find that cultivated area in the US suited to dryland winter wheat–soybeans, the most common double crop (DC) system, increased by up to 28% from 1988 to 2012. Changes in the observed distribution of DC area over the same period agree well with this suitability increase, evidence consistent with climate change playing a role in recent DC expansion in phenologically constrained states. We then apply the model to projections of future climate under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios and estimate an additional 126–239% increase, respectively, in DC area. Sensitivity tests reveal that in most instances, increases in mean temperature are more important than delays in fall freeze in driving increased DC suitability. The results suggest that climate change will relieve phenological constraints on wheat–soy DC systems over much of the United States, though it should be recognized that impacts on corn and soybean yields in this region are expected to be negative and larger in magnitude than the 0.4–0.75% per decade benefits we estimate here for double cropping. (letter)

  13. On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change and its implication for terrestrial biosphere models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Migliavacca

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate systems through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. Land surface models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we analyzed the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize the sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling in the future. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species with 12 phenological models of different complexity to predict leaf bud-burst.

    The evaluation of different phenological models indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, though to a lesser extent, to chilling models based on the alternating model structure.

    We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario. Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% CI: 2.4 day century−1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 day century−1 for A1fi, whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 day century−1 in the simulated trends. The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied somewhat among models (±7.7 day century−1 for A1fi, ±3.6 day century−1 for B1. The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to

  14. On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Migliavacca

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere.

    Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity.

    Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements.

    We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario. Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval – CI: 2.4 days century−1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century−1 for A1fi, whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century−1 in the simulated trends. The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century−1 for A1fi, ±3.6 days century−1 for B1. The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per

  15. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  16. Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed. (letter)

  17. Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Long; Bala, Govindasamy; Caldeira, Ken

    2012-09-01

    Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed.

  18. Microbial responses to multi-factor climate change: Effects on soil enzymes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Megan Steinweg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The activities of extracellular enzymes, the proximate agents of decomposition in soils, are known to depend strongly on temperature, but less is known about how they respond to changes in precipitation patterns, and the interaction of these two components of climate change. Both enzyme production and turnover can be affected by changes in temperature and soil moisture, thus it is difficult to predict how enzyme pool size may respond to altered climate. Soils from the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, which is located in an old field (on abandoned farmland, were used to examine how climate variables affect enzyme activities and microbial biomass carbon (MBC in different seasons and in soils exposed to a combination of three levels of precipitation treatments (ambient, 150% of ambient during growing season, and 50% of ambient year-round and four levels of warming treatments (unwarmed to ~4˚C above ambient over the course of a year. Warming, precipitation and season had very little effect on potential enzyme activity. Most models assume that enzyme dynamics follow microbial biomass, because enzyme production should be directly controlled by the size and activity of microbial biomass. We observed differences among seasons and treatments in mass-specific potential enzyme activity, suggesting that this assumption is invalid. In June 2009, mass-specific potential enzyme activity, using chloroform fumigation-extraction MBC, increased with temperature, peaking under medium warming and then declining under the highest warming. This finding suggests that either enzyme production increased with temperature or turnover rates decreased. Increased maintenance costs associated with warming may have resulted in increased mass-specific enzyme activities due to increased nutrient demand. Our research suggests that allocation of resources to enzyme production could be affected by climate-induced changes in microbial efficiency and maintenance costs.

  19. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. PMID:27341115

  20. The global marine phosphorus cycle: Response to climate change and feedbacks on ocean biogeochemistry. Geologica Ultraiectina (329)

    OpenAIRE

    Tsandev, I.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis focuses on the marine phosphorus (P) cycle and its response to changing environmental conditions, particularly those associated with glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene and Ocean Anoxic Events in the Cretaceous. From a box model of the ocean phosphorus, organic carbon and oxygen cycles, climate change scenarios are applied representing these events. The effects of continental supply of reactive P, oceanic mixing, and sea level on the marine P cycle are examined on ...

  1. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    range of interacting processes, both in the climate system and in human responses. But conceptualizing the challenge of climate change as a challenge in managing risks also opens a path to a wide range of options for solutions. Together, the agenda for research and the options for solutions build toward Steve's vision.

  2. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  3. Downward Wave Coupling Changes in Response to Future Climate Change, Two Way Atmosphere/Ocean Coupling and QBO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellyanto Lubis, Sandro; Matthes, Katja; Harnik, Nili; Omrani, Nour-Eddine

    2014-05-01

    Wave reflection in the stratosphere can impact the troposphere via a well-defined, high latitude meridional waveguide that is bounded above by a vertical reflecting surface. Such wave reflection is known as downward wave coupling (DWC). Recent studies have shown that stratospheric ozone affects DWC, affecting wave propagation and subsequent wave-mean flow interaction in the Southern Hemisphere. However the factors controlling DWC in the Northern Hemisphere are still unclear. There is new evidence that the frequency of Major Stratospheric Warming (MSW) is significantly influenced by the QBO and two-way ocean/ atmosphere interaction. However the resulting impact on DWC has thus far not been investigated. Here we examine the impact of future climate change, two way atmosphere/ ocean coupling, and the QBO on wave geometry and DWC using different CESM-WACCM model experiments. A transient simulation of present and future climate (1955-2099), with green house gases (GHG) and ozone depleting substances (ODS) following the RCP 8.5 scenario, shows the largest reduction in the DWC over last few decades of the simulation. This reduction is associated with an absence of the vertical reflecting surface and statistically insignificant downward wave reflection. Comparison to an experiment with GHG/ODS fixed at 1960s levels, shows no indication of DWC-changes. The lack of a DWC response is associated with insignificant changes of the background wind states, whose vertical structure directly impacts the DWC. The comparison of this experiment with simulations with and without QBO nudging shows that the QBO strengthens the DWC. This can be explained by the fact that our nonQBO simulation has a permanent, strong QBO-like east phase, which dampens the DWC. Comparison of experiments with dynamically-coupled and fixed SSTs shows that the background zonal wind is strengthened significantly when the ocean/atmosphere interaction is removed. However, no apparent strengthening of DWC is seen

  4. Fair adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

  5. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  6. Parks versus payments: reconciling divergent policy responses to biodiversity loss and climate change from tropical deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biodiversity loss and climate change both result from tropical deforestation, yet strategies to address biodiversity loss have focused primarily on protected areas while strategies to address climate change have focused primarily on carbon payments. Conservation planning research has focused largely on where to prioritize protected areas to achieve the greatest representation of species at viable levels. Meanwhile research on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has focused largely on how to design payments to achieve the greatest additional reduction in greenhouse gases relative to baseline rates. This divergence of strategies and research agendas may be attributed to four factors: rare species are more heterogeneously distributed than carbon; species are more difficult to measure and monitor than carbon; species are more sensitive to ecological processes and human disturbance than carbon; and people’s value for species diminishes beyond a threshold while their value for carbon storage does not. Conservation planning can achieve greater biodiversity benefits by adopting the concept of additionality from REDD+. REDD+ can achieve greater climate benefits by incorporating spatial prioritization from conservation planning. Climate and biodiversity benefits can best be jointly achieved from tropical forests by targeting the most additional actions to the most important places. These concepts are illustrated using data from the forests of Indonesia. (letter)

  7. Responses of landform development to tectonic movements and climate change during Quaternary in Fenhe drainage basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUXiaomeng; LIYouli; FUJianli

    2003-01-01

    Tectonic movements and climate changes are two main controllers on the development of landfrorm.In order to reconstruct the history of the evolution of the landform in the Fenhe drainage basin during middle-late Quaternary comprehensively,this paper has provided a variety of geomorphological and geologic evidences to discuss how tetonic movements and climate changes worked together to influence the landform processes,According to the features of the lacustrine and alluvial terraces in this drainage basin,it is deduced that it was the three tectonic uplifts that resulted in the three great lake-regressions with an extent of about 40-60 m and the formation of the three lacustrine terraces.The times when the tectonic uplifts took place are 0.76 MaBP,0.55 MaBP and 0.13 MaBP respectively,synchronous with the formation of paleosol units S8,S5 and S1 respectively.During the intervals between two tectonic uplifts when tectonic movement was very weak ,climate changes played a major role in the evolution of the paleolakes and caused frequent fluctuations of lake levels.The changes of the features of lacustrine sediment in the grabens show the extent of such fluctuations of lake level is about 2-3m.

  8. On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget

    CERN Document Server

    Shaviv, N J

    2004-01-01

    We examine the results linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. We then proceed to study various periods over which there are estimates for the radiative forcing, temperature change and CRF variations relative to today. These include the Phanerozoic as a whole, the Cretaceous, the Eocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, the 20th century, as well as the 11-yr solar cycle. This enables us to place quantitative limits on climate sensitivity to both changes in the CRF, Phi_CR, and the radiative budget, F, under equilibrium. Under the assumption that the CRF is indeed a climate driver, we find that the sensitivity to CRF variations is consistently fitted with mu := -Phi_0 (dT_global/ d Phi_CR) = 6.5 +/- 2.5 K (where Phi_0 is the CR energy flux today). Additionally, the sensitivity to radiative forcing changes is lambda := dT_global/ dF_0 = 0.35 +/- 0.09 K/(W/m^2), at the current temperature, while its temperature derivative is negligible with d lambda / dT_0 = 0.01 +/- 0.03 1/(W/m^2). If the ob...

  9. The use of tax-based fiscal measures in the legal response to climate change / Louis Stefanus van der Walt

    OpenAIRE

    Van der Walt, Louis Stefanus

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is currently one of the most pressing environmental concerns globally and in South Africa. South Africa is especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of the country’s socio-economic context, water scarcity, unique geography and climate sensitive biodiversity. South Africa’s road transport and energy sectors are among others major contributors to climate change. The traditional command and control measures designed to mitigate climate change in...

  10. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K T Senzeba; S Rajkumari; A Bhadra; A Bandyopadhyay

    2016-04-01

    Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios foran eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of ArunachalPradesh with an area of 52 km^2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143–4946 mabove mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006–2007were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done usingNDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selectedhydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperatureand precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR’s GIS data portal for different emission scenarios(SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020,2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired locationby spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression.Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared withconventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth fordifferent future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 andB1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for differentfuture years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under allprojected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snowcover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governedby the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves

  11. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

    2016-04-01

    Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of

  12. Climate change convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Principles that guide Canada's Green Plan with respect to global warming are outlined. These include respect for nature, meeting environmental goals in an economically beneficial manner, efficient use of resources, shared responsibilities, federal leadership, and informed decision making. The policy side of the international Framework Convention on Climate Change is then discussed and related to the Green Plan. The Convention has been signed by 154 nations and has the long-term objective of stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Some of the Convention's commitments toward achieving that objective are only applicable to the developed countries. Five general areas of commitment are emissions reductions, assistance to developing countries, reporting requirements, scientific and socioeconomic research, and education. The most controversial area is that of limiting emissions. The Convention has strong measures for public accountability and is open to future revisions. Canada's Green Plan represents one country's response to the Convention commitments, including a national goal to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000

  13. Climate change tendency and grassland vegetation response during the growth season in Three-River Source Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Climate change,climate suitablity change for grassland vegetation,and grassland response to climate change during the growth season are studied systematically by using meteorological data of temperature,precipitation,and length of sunlight from 1961 to 2007,NOAA/AVHRR NDVI from 1982 to 2006,and observations of grass height,biomass,and coverage in enclosed grassland from 1994 to 2006.Two models are developed to evaluate climate change and the climatic suitability of grassland vegetation growth.Average temperature,accumulative precipitation,and length of sunlight during the growth season increased from 1961 to 2007 at rates of 0.24°C/10 yr,2.32 mm/10 yr,and 2.81 h/10 yr,respectively.The increase rates of ave-rage temperature between April and May,and between June and August are 0.17 and 0.30°C/10 yr;accumulative rainfall between April and May increased at a rate of 2.80 mm/10 yr,and accumulative rainfall between June and August decreased at a rate of 0.38 mm/10 yr;the increase rates of accumulative length of sunlight between April and May,and between June and August are 2.15 and 1.2 h/10 yr.The climatic suitability of grassland vegetation growth showed an increasing trend,and the increase rate between April and May is greater than that between June and August.Both NDVI observations from 1982 to 2006 and measurements of grass height,dry biomass,and coverage from 1994 to 2006 show that the climate change has resulted in an increase in plant productivity of the grassland in Three-River Source Region.If some protection measures are taken as soon as possible,the deteriorated grassland in Three-River Source Region can recover.

  14. Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borland, Anne M; Wullschleger, Stan D; Weston, David J; Hartwell, James; Tuskan, Gerald A; Yang, Xiaohan; Cushman, John C

    2015-09-01

    Global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour-pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. One approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAM members of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. The introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate. PMID:25366937

  15. Crop yield network and its response to changes in climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokozawa, M.

    2013-12-01

    Crop failure (reduction in crop yield) due to extreme weather and climate change could lead to unstable food supply, reflecting the recent globalization in world agricultural production. Specifically, in several major production countries producing large amount of main cereal crops, wheat, maize, soybean and rice, abrupt crop failures in wide area are significantly serious for world food supply system. We examined the simultaneous changes in crop yield in USA, China and Brazil, in terms of the changes in climate system such as El Nino, La nina and so on. In this study, we defined a crop yield networks, which represent the correlation between yearly changes in crop yields and climate resources during the crop growing season in two regions. The climate resources during the crop growing season represents here the average temperature and the accumulated precipitation during the crop growing season of a target crop. As climate data, we used a reanalysis climate data JRA-25 (Japan Meteorological Agency). The yearly changes in crop yields are based on a gridded crop productivity database with a resolution of 1.125 degree in latitude/longitude (Iizumi et al. 2013). It is constructed from the agriculture statistics issued by local administrative bureau in each country, which covers the period during 1982 to 2006 (25 years). For the regions being lack of data, the data was interpolated referring to NPP values estimated by satellite data. Crop yield network is constructed as follows: (1) let DY(i,y) be negative difference in crop yield of year y from the trend yield at grid i; (2) define the correlation of the differences Cij(y) = DY(i, y) DY(j, y); (3) if Cij(y) > Q, then grids i and j are mutually linked for a threshold value Q. Links between grids make a crop yield network. It is here noted that only negative differences are taken into account because we focused on the lean year cases (i.e. yields of both grids were lower than those in the long-term trend). The arrays of

  16. Climate Change and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speake...

  17. PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    WAITHAKA, E.; OGENDI, KIMANI; MORARA, G.; MUTUA, MAKENZI P.

    2014-01-01

    There is evidence of climate change related events in arid and semi-arid lands. People living in Arid and Semi-arid Lands are particularly vulnerable to the change. Previous studies have revealed great wealth of adaptation mechanisms developed by communities residing in therein over the course of history for their survival. Despite this, there is little or no evidence whether these developed indigenous strategies by the vulnerable communities are based on perception of climate change. The obj...

  18. Response of terrestrial N2O and NOx emissions to abrupt climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Being a potent greenhouse gas, N2O emitted by the terrestrial biosphere during abrupt climate change events could have amplified externally forced warming. To investigate this possibility, we tested the sensitivity of terrestrial N2O emissions to an abrupt warming event by applying the ARVE-DGVM in combination with a novel scheme for process-based simulation of terrestrial N2O and NOx emissions at the Gerzensee site in Switzerland. In this study, we aim to quantify the magnitude of change in emissions for the abrupt climate change event that occurred at the transition from Oldest Dryas to Boel-ling during the last deglaciation. Using high-resolution multiproxy records obtained from the Gerzensee that cover the Late Glacial, we apply a prescribed vegetation change derived from the pollen record and temperature and precipitation reconstructions derived from δ18O in lake sediments. Changes in soil temperature and moisture are simulated by the ARVE-DGVM using the reconstructed paleoclimate as a driver. Our results show a pronounced increase in mean annual N2O and NOx emissions for the transition (by factor 2.55 and 1.97, respectively), with highest amounts generally being emitted during summer. Our findings suggest that summertime emissions are limited by soil moisture, while temperature controls emissions during winter. For the time between 14670 and 14620 cal. years BP, our simulated N2O emissions show increase rates as high as 1% per year, indicating that local reactions of emissions to changing climate could have been considerably faster than the atmospheric concentration changes observed in polar ice.

  19. 180,000 Years of Climate Change in Europe: Avifaunal Responses and Vegetation Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra Ravnsbæk Holm; Jens-Christian Svenning

    2014-01-01

    Providing an underutilized source of information for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, birds are rarely used to infer paleoenvironments despite their well-known ecology and extensive Quaternary fossil record. Here, we use the avian fossil record to investigate how Western Palearctic bird assemblages and species ranges have changed across the latter part of the Pleistocene, with focus on the links to climate and the implications for vegetation structure. As a key issue we address the full-gl...

  20. Photoperiodic response may facilitate adaptation to climatic change in long-distance migratory birds.

    OpenAIRE

    Coppack, Timothy; Pulido, Francisco; Czisch, Michael; Auer, Dorothee P; Berthold, Peter

    2003-01-01

    Recent climatic change is causing spring events in northern temperate regions to occur earlier in the year. As a result, migratory birds returning from tropical wintering sites may arrive too late to take full advantage of the food resources on their breeding grounds. Under these conditions, selection will favour earlier spring arrival that could be achieved by overwintering closer to the breeding grounds. However, it is unknown how daylength conditions at higher latitudes will affect the tim...

  1. Responses of natural runoff to recent climatic changes in the Yellow River basin, China

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Y.; Tang, Q.; Tian, F.; Zhang, Z.; G.Liu

    2013-01-01

    The Yellow River, the second longest river in China, experienced frequent zero flow in the lower reaches of the mainstream in the 1990s. In recent years, the zero-flow phenomenon has almost disappeared. Besides engineering measures implemented to maintain ecological flows, the changes in natural runoff might have contributed to replenish the river. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and runoff elasticity analyses to assess the impacts of climatic cha...

  2. Evaluation of the global water cycle's response to current and future drivers of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Warnaars, Tanya

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the water cycle and how it will be modified by climate change is a real challenge. With increasing temperatures the hydrological cycle is expected to intensify and extreme event will become more widespread. Some expected outcomes are more intense rainfall events, which can lead to increased floods and increased erosion; as well as a more intermittent pattern of rainfall leading to droughts. These effects are anticipated to occur on a global scale and an integrated approach is ne...

  3. The hydrological response of the Ourthe catchment to climate change as modelled by the HBV model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. L. A. Driessen

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The Meuse is an important river in western Europe, and almost exclusively rain-fed. Projected changes in precipitation characteristics due to climate change, therefore, are expected to have a considerable effect on the hydrological regime of the river Meuse. We focus on an important tributary of the Meuse, the Ourthe, measuring about 1600 km2. The well-known hydrological model HBV is forced with three high-resolution (0.088° regional climate scenarios, each based on one of three different IPCC CO2 emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. To represent the current climate, a reference model run at the same resolution is used. Prior to running the hydrological model, the biases in the climate model output are investigated and corrected for. Different approaches to correct the distributed climate model output using single-site observations are compared. Correcting the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation is found to give the best results, but still large differences exist between observations and simulations. The bias corrected data are then used to force HBV. Results indicate a small increase in overall discharge for especially the B1 scenario during the beginning of the 21st century. Towards the end of the century, all scenarios show a decrease in summer discharge, partially because of the diminished buffering effect by the snow pack, and an increased discharge in winter. It should be stressed, however, that we used results from only one GCM (the only one available at such a high resolution. It would be interesting to repeat the analysis with multiple models.

  4. Response of Vegetation to Climate Change in the Drylands of East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Over the past 25 years, global climate and environmental changes have caused an unprecedented rate of vegetation change, as exemplified in the drylands of East Asia. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation in this region and analysed their relationship with climate data. Our results show that vegetation productivity significantly increased from 1982 to 2006. This increasing trend was observed for most of the region, particularly for northwest Mongolia and central Inner Mongolia. Grasslands, croplands, forests, and shrublands, all exhibited this trend. The annual growth rate of the grasslands determined using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was the largest observed change; reaching 0.07% p.a, followed by shrublands (0.06%), croplands (0.03%), and forests (0.02%). In the different geographic regions, the roles of temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth were shown to be different. Temperature was the dominant factor for the observed NDVI increase in northwest Mongolia and the centre of Inner Mongolia. The combined influences of temperature and precipitation changes have resulted in the promotion of vegetation growth, as seen in eastern GanSu. Temperature change is the primary factor for initiating vegetation growth in spring and autumn because warmer temperatures increase the length of the growing season, and are thus evaluated as an increased NDVI value. Increased precipitation has been shown to play a positive role on vegetation growth during summer

  5. Changes in the distribution of isotherms across the Carpathian Mountains in response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magdalena Micu, Dana; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin; Birsan, Marius-Victor

    2016-04-01

    Air temperature is a crucial climate variable in the monitoring of climate change effects, especially in high-elevation regions highly sensitive to the recent warming. The study highlights the spatial changes and the vertical anomalies of the observed temperature trends associated with displacements of some important isotherms, relevant for the typololgy of periglacial process (e.g. 2°, 0°, 2°, 3°C) and the spread of forest vegetation (10°C), across the Carpathian Mountains range. The analyses are based on homogenized daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature available at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) for 1961-2010, developed within the CARPATCLIM project (www.carpatclim.eu). The changes in isotherm distribution were investigated for each season by comparing distinct three 30-year time-slices (1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010) at regional scale, with focus on the five Carpathian Mountains regions. The results show consistent spatial changes, suggesting a strong northward displacement of isotherms in winter and summer and a slightly less one in spring. The strongest changes associated to the isotherms of average and maximum temperature occur the strongest in the areas beyond 47°N latitude, distinguishing extended areas of the Northwestern Carpathians, the Northeastern Carpathians and Southwestern and Southern Carpathians. In summer, the vertical displacement of all isotherms were found significant over the entire Carpathian domain, with changes of up to 0.6-0.8°C for minimum temperature isotherms and over 0.8-1.0°C for the average and maximum temperature. In autumn, most visible changes were assigned to maximum temperature isotherms, especially when comparing the time-slices overlapping the last 40 years of the study period, yet at a weaker magnitude compared to other seasons (below 0.6°C). The spatial changes in the distribution of isotherms are relevant for the timing and intensity of processes in the areas with active seasonal ground freezing (above 2

  6. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  7. Crop responses to climatic variation

    OpenAIRE

    Porter, John R; Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2005-01-01

    The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, develo...

  8. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  9. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  10. Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2016-02-01

    Catchment flow regimes alteration is likely to be a prominent consequence of climate change projections in the Mediterranean. Here we explore the potential effects of climatic change on the flow regime of the Thau and the Chiba catchments which are located in Southern France and Northeastern Tunisia, respectively. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model is forced with projections from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) to assess changes and uncertainty in relevant hydrological indicators related to water balance, magnitude, frequency and timing of the flow between a reference (1971-2000) and future (2041-2071) periods. Results indicate that both catchments are likely to experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the future. Consequently, runoff and soil water content are projected to decrease whereas potential evapotranspiration is likely to increase in both catchments. Yet uncertain, the projected magnitudes of these changes are higher in the wet period than in the dry period. Analyses of extreme flow show similar trend in both catchments, projecting a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations. Further, significant increase in low flow frequency as a proxy for hydrological droughts is projected for both catchments but with higher uncertainty in the wet period than in the dry period. Although no changes in the average timing of maximum and minimum flow events for different flow durations are projected, substantial uncertainty remains in the hydrological projections. While the results in both catchments show consistent trend of change for most of the hydrologic indicators, the overall degree of alteration on the flow regime of the Chiba catchment is projected to be higher than that of the Thau catchment. The projected magnitudes of alteration as well as their associated uncertainty vary depending on the catchment characteristics and flow seasonality. PMID:26170115

  11. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  12. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  13. Forestry Canada's perspectives on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impacts of climatic change on Canada's forestry sector are discussed, in the context of major research priorities relating to forecasting climate, forecasting forest responses, monitoring changes, mitigating effects, and understanding the forest carbon balance. There are five major concerns that affect policy decisions: effects of climatic change on forests; adaptation to climate change; impacts of changing crops on forestry; changing forestry values in changing sociological settings; and international implications of the changing climate. A scientific program to respond to climate change issues is required, and should include the following concentrations of research effort. Planning requires projections of likely future climates, and efforts should concern relations between pre-historic climates and forest ecosystems and integrating data into predictive models. Forecasting of response of forests should include tree physiology, factors controlling reforestation, variations in forest trees, effects of pollutants, damage to forests, and forest decline

  14. Different responses of different altitudes surrounding Taklimankan Desert to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chongyi, E.; Yong, Wang; Taibao, Yang; Jiankang, Han; Hongchang, Hu; Fengmei, Yang

    2009-02-01

    Chongce Ice Cap (35°14'N, 81°07'E), located in the south margin of Taklimakan Desert, West Kunlun Mts. of China was sampled by coring in 1992, and this provides us with climate proxy of high altitudes (6,530 m). Through analyzing the weather observation stations surrounding Taklimakan Desert, the climate record of Hotan station was chosen to be the representative of low altitudes. Wavelet analysis were used to investigate the climatic variations of patterns, cycles and frequencies of different altitudes from 1954 to 1992, and different responses of different altitude surrounding Taklimakan Desert to global warming were recorded: (1) coherent decline of snow accumulation rate and dust deposition of high altitude recorded in Chongce ice core; (2) coherent increase of summer half-year precipitation and SAT of Hotan; (3) consistent variation tendency between dust deposit recorded in Chongce ice core and Hotan spring sandstorm days; (4) opposite variation tendency between Hotan precipitation and Chongce ice core snow accumulation rate and consistent cycles in general. By analyzing the mechanism of different responses, the predominant factors were determined of different altitudes: (1) at the low altitude, the vapor supply is predominant, and more vapor supplying means more precipitation; (2) at the high altitude, probably the population of dust aerosols which act as cloud ice nuclei in high altitude takes advantage over the vapor supply to affect the precipitation, and so the dust aerosol population reducing results in the wet deposition being reduced, thus the dust aerosol is the predominant factor.

  15. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  16. Understanding climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topics covered in this book are: include volcanism; biogeochemistry; land hydrology; modeling climate; past and present; cryosphere; paleoclimates; land-surface processes; tropical oceans and the global atmosphere; clouds and atmospheric radiation; aeronomy and planetary atmospheres; and modeling future climate changes. The papers presented include uptake by the Atlantic Ocean of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide and radiocarbon

  17. Invasive species and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    Invasive species challenge managers in their work of conserving and managing natural areas and are one of the most serious problems these managers face. Because invasive species are likely to spread in response to changes in climate, managers may need to change their approaches to invasive species management accordingly.

  18. Synthesizing greenhouse gas fluxes across nine European peatlands and shrublands – responses to climatic and environmental changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carter, Mette Sustmann; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Emmett, B.;

    2012-01-01

    , and in annual precipitation from 300 to 1300 mm yr−1. The effects of climate change, including temperature increase and prolonged drought, were tested at five shrubland sites. At one peatland site, the long-term (>30 yr) effect of drainage was assessed, while increased nitrogen deposition was...... at a~hydric shrubland where drought tended to increase soil respiration. When comparing the fractional importance of each greenhouse gas to the total numerical global warming response, the change in CO2 efflux dominated the response in all treatments (ranging 71–96%), except for NO3− addition where...

  19. International Legal Mechanisms Of Responsibility For The Harm To Climate Leading To Change Of The State Territory Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey D. Belockiy

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present article author analyzed question international legal responsibility of state’s